Softs News

Aug 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

London appears to have taken a further nap. On this hot and sunny day yesterday, prices did not move any more than absolutely necessary; even a much more active New York barely brought any movement. The Dec 20 ICE LDN traded in a GBP 22 range and closed at GBP 1677 (GBP +3). The structure showed slightly more movement during the day, but overall the front spread remained unchanged. Even 48 lots of new gradings did not change anything. The market seems to be waiting - it remains to be seen what for. Pod Counts, weather, Commitments of Traders or the latest from the origin? By the way: the elections in the Ivory Coast are supposed to take place as planned. Strangely enough, there are absolutely no election campaigns to be seen at all there.

Aug 06 - Honduras to export 19% less coffee this year than previous harvest, industry leader says 
Honduran coffee exports could fall by as much as 19% compared to the 2018/2019 harvest, a result of lower global market prices and a local drought, the head of Honduras' national coffee institute IHCAFE, Francisco Ordoñez, told Reuters. "[The decline] is due to the prices. After low prices for various harvests, it becomes hard for the producers to keep up with the activities of the farm. And we also suffered a drought last year," Ordoñez told Reuters by telephone.

Aug 06 - France pours more aid as wine sector faces 'major difficulties' 
France on Wednesday stepped up financial support for wine growers faced with a deep drop in demand after lockdowns closed restaurants and bars and U.S. tariffs curbed exports. "The state will increase to 250 million euros its support plan to wine growing and we will request this aid to be distributed as quickly as possible because cash needs are pressing," French Prime Minister Jean Castex said on Wednesday.
 
 

Aug 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Consolidation, recovery, breathing space...keywords that describe yesterday well. The Dec 20 traded in a narrow range of GBP 18, closing GBP -6 at GBP 1674, and the 200 day moving average at US$ 2416 in New York seems to be providing significant support. The Dez 20 NY ended the day at $-14 at $2447. Many eyes are currently focused on the origins, allegedly those that have been seen in the market, and on the next pre-sales. We are excited about the next Commitment of Traders report, as the market is expecting a reduction in speculative managed money short positions of around 15-20k lots, due to the developments of the last few days 

Aug 05 - ICO sees global coffee market back in deficit this season 
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) revised its forecast on Tuesday for the global coffee market balance in the current 2019/20 season, predicting a deficit of 486,000 60kg bags in its July report. The intergovernmental organisation previously forecast a surplus of 1.85 million bags for 2019/20 in its June monthly report, on account of the expected negative impact of coronavirus lockdowns on consumption.
 
 

Aug 04 - Cocoa prices seen weakening by end-2020 as COVID-19 curbs demand - poll
London cocoa futures are forecast to end the year 10% down from current levels as the slow re-opening of economies shut down by COVID-19 weighs on demand while supply prospects for next season improve, a Reuters poll of 11 traders and analysts showed. London prices were seen ending 2020 at 1,475 pounds a tonne, down 10% from Friday's close and 17% lower than levels seen at the end of 2019, according to the median forecast of survey participants.   
  

Aug 04 - Cheaper cocoa may not be a recipe for lower chocolate prices 
Chocolate fans will not necessarily benefit from predictions of a fall in cocoa prices this year. A Reuters poll of London cocoa futures published on Monday forecast cocoa would cost 10% less at the end of the year because of rising production and a hit to demand from the coronavirus crisis. But chocolate bars will not necessarily get cheaper partly because the price of cocoa is only one ingredient in the mix that makes up the retail price.

Aug 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Profit taking by the shorts and slight hedging pressure from the origin alternated on Friday. The Dec 20 ended the day with GBP +21 at GBP 1638. New York Dec 20 $+54 / $ 2399. London ended the week up 5%, NY + 9%. Commitment of Traders on 28.07. show a slight increase from 4,535 lots to 24,587 lots net short. While Managed Money in London gained 3,454 lots of fresh shorts, the Specs in New York reduced 7,239 lots of their shorts. After the profit taking of the last second half of the week, these figures are probably out of date.

Aug 03 - Coffee prices seen rising slightly by end-2020 despite higher surplus - poll
Coffee prices, both for arabica and robusta futures, are seen rising slightly by the end of 2020 from current values despite an overall view of a larger surplus in the 2020-21 season, a Reuters poll of nine traders and analysts showed on Monday. Arabica futures are seen finishing the year at $1.20 per pound, 0.9% higher than the settlement on Friday, while robusta futures are seen at $1,390 per tonne at end-December, 3.42% up from last week's settlement.

Aug 03 - Raw sugar seen posting annual loss as surplus looms - poll
Raw sugar futures look set to end this year near current levels but post an annual loss as the COVID-19 pandemic buoys supply and dents demand, a Reuters poll of 11 traders and analysts showed on Friday. Prices were seen ending 2020 at 12 cents per lb, down 1% from Thursday's close and 11% below levels at the end of 2019, according to the median forecast.

 
Aug 03 - Speculative long position in raw sugar grows past 70,000 contracts - CFTC data 
Speculators increased their net long position in raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to July 28 by 8,385 contracts to a total long of 70,470 contracts, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Friday. The long position build up happened in a week when fresh fundamental news, including forecasts for reduced sugar production in Thailand and talks of renewed buying from China, drove the front-month contract to the highest level in 4-1/2 months.  

Jul 31 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 27-31 July 2020 (IPC)

- As the Moslem around the world celebrates the Eid Al-Adha Mubarak 1441 H amid the global pandemic of Corona Virus, Market this week showed mixed response with a rather positive outlook as only Viet Nam origin recording a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,122 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 8% and 5% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,193 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,426 per Mt for white pepper. The increase of Indonesia pepper could be contributed to the increase of demand as well as the strengthening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (IDR 14,593 @ USD 1), an appreciation by 1% recorded. Malaysia black and white peppers in local market were reported with an increase of 1% respectively when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,301 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,655 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with 3% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,970 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,745 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with a significant increase of 8% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,858 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable and unchanged.
- International market was reported with a more positive outlook. India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,390 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 7% and 5% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,665 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,044 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,609 per Mt whilst Malaysia white pepper was reported stable. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper as well as China white pepper continued to be reported stable and unchanged.
- US market this week was reported with the increase of price of black as well as white pepper nevertheless buyers held on to source from producing origins. Muntok white pepper for CF August/September was reported at USD 4.600 per Mt.

Jul 31 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

At least over the first half of the day, the firm performance continued. As on the previous day, coverage against the shorts caused a rise and the Dec 20 found good resistance at the 50 day moving average at GBP 1637 / Dec 20. In the afternoon the market recovered and the Sep / Dec 20 spread returned to GBP -18. Closing price Dec 20 GBP +6 at GBP 1617. The other dates on the board were firmer and ended the day positively between GBP +14 / +20. Purchases in Ghana at 11.06 were 752,639mt vs. 776,418mt at the end of May 19 (-3.15%). Interesting: Ghana is not dividing the harvest between Main and Light Crop this year, purchases of the Main Crop are to be continued until the end of September.

Jul 31 - Tereos says EU activity almost back to normal after COVID-19 hit 
Sugar sales in Europe have been gradually returning to levels anticipated before the COVID-19 outbreak, French sugar group Tereos said on Thursday, while higher prices limited the impact of the lockdown on the group's activities in the first quarter. Tereos, the worlds' second-largest sugar producer by volume after Germany's Suedzucker, has been grappling like its peers with the effects of the coronavirus outbreak, which has rattled global markets and slashed demand for products like ethanol. 

Jul 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Unexpectedly for many market participants, cover against the short position led to a clearly firm performance. The Dec 20 searched for and broke through the GBP 1600 resistance, traded in the high at GBP 1620 and finished the day with GBP +29 at GBP 1611. The Sep 20 literally catapulted itself high, gaining GBP 61 at its peak. Closing price GBP +49 / GBP 1608. Sep / Dec 20 converged from GBP -20 to a premium of GBP +3 / Closing GBP -2. The short specs continue to dominate the market, but the poorly sold origins and the political risks continue to exist. Acting President Ouattara continues to ask for time to think about his possible candidacy. Reminder: Elections will take place on 31.10

 Jul 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Similar to a week ago, the momentum of a short attempted break from the current lethargy has faded as quickly as it occurred. The Dez 20 traded in a GBP 16 range, ending the day at GBP +6 at GBP 1582. The only sporadic highlight...The Sep / Dez 20 spread traded to a new low of GBP -21. After focusing on demand for the last few weeks / months, the weather development in West Africa and the start of the new crop is slowly occupying the market. Outlook seems to be good despite slightly too dry soil. Current weather forecasts promise halfway normal conditions.

Jul 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

New York, currently in a "mini-uptrend" and influenced by a weak US$, was the aggressor of yesterday's movement. London, due to the expected hedge pressure from the origin, was slow to move and found resistance towards GBP 1600 / Dec 20, a similar picture to exactly one week ago. Closing price LDN Dec 20 GBP +16 at GBP 1576. NY Dec 20 $ +57 at $ 2279. The Sep 20 arbitrage extended yesterday to a discount of GBP -216. Speculation about the current average level of managed money shorts made the rounds yesterday. We see the larger positions in LDN around GBP 1620-1650 ("in the money") and NY around $ 2180-2240 ("under water").

Jul 28 - Ivory Coast cocoa main crop should weather below-average rain 
Rainfall last week in most of Ivory Coast's main cocoa growing regions was below average, but growing conditions are still good enough to ensure the steady development of the October-to-March main crop, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast is in the middle of its April-to-October rainy season, but the central cocoa-growing region of Bongouanou recorded below average rainfall.

Jul 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

One tired week was followed by an equally tired week-end. The Dez 20 traded in a GBP 24 range (GBP 1574/1550) and ended the day with GBP +5 at GBP 1560, almost unchanged. The change in open interest last week indicated new long positions of fundamental market participants and thus limited the movement, triggered by the selling joy of the specs, downwards. Commitment of Traders as of 21.07 show a further, albeit comparatively small, reduction in the net position from 2,032 lots to 20,012 lots net short. Managed Money took in combined almost 5,000 lots of fresh shorts. Here the position now stands at 44,952 lots short. The Ivorian Minister of Agriculture reported that the current market situation is not conducive to pre-sales and that negotiated deals might be more profitable. The difference is not clear to us yet but it shows the current pressure on the origin.

Jul 27 - Brazil sugar output rises 55% in 1st half of July to 3 mln T 
Mills in Brazil's center-south produced 3.02 million tonnes of sugar in the first half of July, 55% more than in the year-ago period and just shy of the 15-day period record, as plants continue to heavily favor the sweetener at the expense of ethanol. According to a Friday's report by sugar industry group Unica, ethanol production fell 2.3% in the period to 2.12 billion liters, while ethanol sales were 14% below as the fuel market remains depressed by coronavirus-linked measures.


J
ul 27 -
Funds raise long position in raw sugar, trim short bet in coffee 

Speculators increased their net long position in raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to July 21 by 6,123 contracts to a total long of 62,085 contracts, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Friday. Despite the long bet by speculators, sugar futures have been locked in a tight interval between 11.40 and 12.10 cents per pound for almost a month, with most analysts saying the market lacks a clear direction ahead.
 
 

Jul 24 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market report, Week 20-24 July 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed mixed response with Indonesia and Viet Nam origin recording a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,088 per Mt. Entering the harvest season as well as the slow demand, Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with 12% and 5% deficit respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,039 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,262 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white peppers in local market were reported with an increase of 4% and 2% respectively when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,275 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,626 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,040 per Mt whilst Viet Nam white pepper remained stable and unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 4% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,644 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable and unchanged.
- International market showed a similar trend as the local market. India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 2% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,355 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with 12% and 5% deficit respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,488 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,858 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white peppers were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper as well as China white pepper continued to be reported stable and unchanged.

Jul 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The very previous day there was at least an attempt to break out of the market in an upward direction with low volumes. The Dez 30 climbed to a high of GBP 1578, then corrected relatively quickly back into the current no-man's-land. Closing price GBP -2 at GBP 1555. The market is still waiting for new impulses...The question remains who will be the first to become weak? The Managed Money Shorts or the poorly selling origins? Right now time is playing against the origin...

Jul 23 - Indian tea prices jump to record as floods, COVID-19 slash output
Tea prices in the world's second-biggest producer India have jumped to a record after intense floods and coronavirus movement restrictions trimmed output in the main producing region. The price rise could support the beleaguered Indian tea industry which has struggled with rising production costs, but may limit New Delhi's exports and boost shipments from rivals such as Kenya and Sri Lanka, multiple trade sources said.

Jul 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A rise of GBP 55 from the previous day's lows and the subsequent high of GBP 1595 was short-lived. New selling pressure (new shorts?) then caused the corresponding correction in the afternoon. The Dec 20 fell sharply to end the day at GBP -18 at GBP 1551, and even yesterday's volatility (GBP 45 range) and the way to testing last week's lows at GBP 1540 only provided a tired "wake-up" for market participants. The Silly Season is in full swing and the usual uncertainties (elections in Côte d'Ivoire, poorly sold origins, consumer expectations and an unpredictable speculative "community") leave much room for interpretation and speculation.

Jul 22 - Want to make profits from coffee in China? It's actually a grind
Looking outside her Beijing coffee shop where seven other nearby cafes including a Starbucks compete for customers, Huang Ying is simply glad to still be in business. In the 17 years since opening her cafe in the trendy 798 Art Zone district, making money has gotten harder - even before the coronavirus. Rent and labour costs have increased while rival after rival waded into a market that has failed to live up to expectations.

Jul 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The increase in speculative short position caused the expected reaction of the market, especially in NY where front spreads make short position rolling unattractive for the specs. London was more subdued. The front spread traded at -7 to -20 and the Dec20/Mar21 spread converged from +20 a week ago to +12 yesterday. The structure is flattening noticeably. The 2nd month closed at GBP 1569 (+6). The British pound is still weakening, and the outright levels are encouraging a cover. The origin is visible (if at all) with only small volumes in the market. One is probably waiting for better times. Meanwhile, in Côte d'Ivoire it is becoming more likely that President Ouattara will run for a third term in office in the fall.

Jul 21 - More sun, rain needed to strengthen Ivory Coast main cocoa crop - farmers
Rains in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa growing regions were well below average last week, and more downpours and sunny spells are needed to boost the top grower's main crop, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast is in the middle of its April to October rainy season. Increased soil moisture was helping trees develop tiny flowers and small pods, which was an encouraging start for the main cocoa crop, the farmers added. 

Jul 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Q2 grinding figures: Asia -5.98%, total -7.90%. The slightly better than expected grindings from the US & Asia before opening, a weakening British pound and the turn of the month are already setting a firm trend before opening. The Dec 20 opened firm and by midday had risen a good GBP 30, to a high of GBP 1587. Slight hedging pressure finally led to a virtually unchanged close of GBP +8 at GBP 1563. London thus marked the 9 weakest week-end in a row (new record). Commitment of Traders as of 14.07 show a significant reduction of the net position by 11,192 lots to only +22,044 lots net long. Managed Money reduced by 15,211 lots and now stands at 38,279 lots short.

Jul 20 - Pact to aid poor cocoa farmers in peril as COVID-19 hits demand
The steepest dive in cocoa demand in a decade has thrown into jeopardy a plan by top producers Ivory Coast and Ghana to guarantee some two million farmers a living wage, sources within the countries' regulators said. Leading chocolate-makers agreed to a proposal from the African nations last year to charge the industry a premium for cocoa beans and guarantee a minimum income to farmers who earn just $1 a day. 

Jul 20 - Funds cut long position in raw sugar, boost short bet in cocoa
Speculators cut their net long position in raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to July 14 by 6,353 contracts to a total long of 55,962 contracts, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Friday. They increased their short bet in cocoa futures on ICE by 6,661 contracts for a total short of 30,406 contracts by July 14, CFTC data showed.

Jul 17 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 13-17 July 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed mixed response as only Malaysia origin was reported with an increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,005 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with 1% deficit respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,328 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,424 per Mt for white pepper. The decrease of Indonesia pepper could be contributed to the weakening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (IDR 14,605 @ USD 1), a depreciated by 1% recorded. Malaysia black and white peppers in local market were reported with an increase of 6% and 4% respectively when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,195 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,548 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white peppers were reported with 1% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,053 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,828 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was also reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,554 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable and unchanged.
- International market showed a similar trend as the local market. India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,271 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with 1% deficit respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,819 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,040 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white peppers were reported with an increase of 4% and 3% respectively as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 3,545 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,995 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, as business slowing down, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper continued to be reported stable and unchanged. China white pepper was also reported stable and unchanged.

Jul 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Grinding figures Q2: NCA -10.70%. Yesterday's published ECA figures, which many interpreted as "neutral", prevented at least the announced fixed opening of GBP +13. The Sep 20 and Dec 20 (new 2 month) marked new lows of GBP 1525 and 1545 respectively in the downward movement that was ultimately seen. Industrial price hedges on the lows then led to a virtually unchanged close of GBP +7 at GBP 1525 Sep 20 and GBP +3 at GBP 1555 Dec 20. The post-market published grindings for North America are slightly above expectations, but mark the fourth consecutive quarter with a negative trend. For Europe it was the weakest tonnage of grindings since 2015, for Germany even since 2013. The Jul / Sep 20 left the board yesterday at noon with a discount of GBP -55.

Jul 17 - North American Q2 cocoa grind down 10.7% from year earlier - NCA
North American cocoa grindings fell in the second quarter to 110,776 tonnes, down 10.7% from the same period a year ago as measures to curb the spread of COVID-19 hurt demand for chocolate's raw material. A report from the National Confectioners Association (NCA) on Thursday said second quarter grindings were also below the first quarter of the year, which came at 115,591 tonnes.

 
Jul 17 - Suedzucker CEO reaffirms improved earnings outlook despite virus
The CEO of Suedzucker, Europe's largest sugar refiner, reaffirmed expectations on Thursday of better full-year profits as its sugar sector is likely to improve performance despite the coronavirus crisis. "Despite the unforeseeable challenges from the corona pandemic, we are confident that we will achieve a significant improvement in results in the current financial year," CEO Nils Poerksen said in a text of a speech at the company’s online meeting of shareholders.
 

Jul 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Grinding figures Q2: ECA -8.93%, Germany -16.26
The market consolidated for most of yesterday's trading day. In the afternoon, in anticipation of today's grinding numbers, further selling pressure led to a break through last week's lows at GBP 1545. Low Sep 20 GBP 1531, closing GBP -27 at GBP 1534. The grinding numbers for Europe are a tick better than expected (-10 to -15%). Germany is within expectations. We will now see how much of this has already been priced in the correction. The grading room in London closed its doors for the July 20 date expiring at noon today. With an open interest of 1315 this does not promise too much tension.

Jul 16 - German second quarter 2020 cocoa grind down 16.3% due to virus crisis
Germany's second quarter 2020 cocoa grind fell 16.3% on the year to 78,885 tonnes, the German confectionery industry association BDSI said on Thursday, blaming the drop on the coronavirus crisis. "For many manufacturers of confectionery, important sales outlets such as department stores or speciality confectioners and sweet shops were closed for many weeks because of the restrictions imposed in the coronavirus crisis," the association said.

Jul 16 - Small French beet crop could lead to sugar unit closures - growers
A sharp fall in sugar beet production expected this year in France mainly because of severe pest attacks could further deter farmers from growing the low-return crop and prompt more plant closures, growers group CGB said on Wednesday. Sugar production in the European Union has fallen for two consecutive seasons following an initial surge after the EU abolished production quotas in 2017. That sent prices plummeting, triggering heavy financial losses for many EU producers.  

Jul 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Completely unaffected by the weakness of the British pound, the Sep 20 traded yesterday again within a relatively narrow GBP 22 range (High GBP 1572 / Low GBP 1550). Closing price GBP -11 at GBP 1561. Despite a pleasingly respectable volume, the market looks increasingly consolidating. The market now expects tomorrow's grinding figures and the expiry of the July 20 date in London

Jul 15 - Green Plains sues Archer Daniels Midland, alleging ethanol market manipulation
Green Plains Inc, one of the biggest U.S. ethanol producers, sued Archer Daniels Midland Co on Tuesday, accusing the global grain trader of manipulating the price of the biofuel to profit from its positions in the derivatives market. Green Plains filed the proposed class action with the U.S. District Court of Nebraska, where it also claimed that senior ADM officials knew of the alleged manipulation.

Jul 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

While the market hardly moved at all, with a narrow GBP 23 range and low volume, the market was mainly concerned with fundamental news. Ivory Coast Vice President Daniel Kablan Duncan resigned for personal reasons, which may pave the way for a third term for Ouattara. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as at 12.07 were down 6% on the previous year at 1.986 million tonnes. Malaysian marriage figures show a decline of only 7.2%, while those of the Ivory Coast in Q2 were at the previous year's level at +0.72%. The Sep LND ended the day with GBP -6 at GBP 1572 and New York Sep 20 $+33 at $2193, thus closing above the 10 day average at $2168

Jul 14 - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers bullish about growing conditions ahead of main crop 
Most of Ivory Coast's cocoa growing regions received below-average rainfall last week but good soil moisture content contributed to a favourable outlook for the upcoming main crop, farmers said on Monday. Farmers in the world’s top cocoa producer said the crop was developing well through the ongoing rainy season and the trees on many plantations had more small pods than last year. The main crop begins in October and lasts through March. 

Jul 14 -
Brazil coffee exports fall near 10% in June, says Cecafé 

Brazilian green coffee exporters shipped 2.47 million 60-kg bags abroad in June, 9.8% less than in the same month a year earlier, exporters association Cecafé said on Monday, without blaming the coronavirus pandemic for the fall. Exports of arabica coffee, the type preferred by high-end coffee roasters, fell 21.3% in June to 1.85 million bags. Shipments of robusta coffee, which is widely used by the instant coffee industry, were seen at 617,739 bags, 60% more than a year ago, said Cecafé.

Jul 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The announced firm opening led to a rise in the morning prices of almost GBP 30 to a Friday high of GBP 1590 / Sep 20 and the closer we came to the GBP 1600 mark, further selling pressure set in. The market traded the rest of the day uninspired and in anticipation of the July position expiring and grinding numbers in a narrow range, with low volumes. Closing price GBP +15 at GBP 1578. Commitment of Traders at 07.07 show a further significant reduction in the net long position from 15,788 lots to +33,236. Managed Money liquidated over 18k lots (fresh shorts and sales of longs) and is now at 23k lots short. Brazilian grinding numbers set a negative tone for this week, -23.3% for Q2 2020. As severe as this sounds, it is still within expectations.

Jul 13 - Funds raise long position in raw sugar, cut short bet in coffee
Speculators raised a net long position in raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to July 7 by 16,394 contracts to a total long of 62,315 contracts, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Friday. The funds' increase in a long position in sugar futures comes as prices for the product distanced themselves from a near four-month high reached earlier this week.

Jul 13 -
U.S. sugar stocks-to-use ratio rises on higher imports - USDA

U.S. sugar stocks-to-use ratio increased for both old and new crop years on Friday, due to higher imports and production, while expected consumption was unchanged, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). In its monthly supply and demand report, the USDA said the closely watched stocks-to-use ratio for the 2019-20 crop year, that ends in September, rose to 14.5% from 13.4% in June. That ratio also rose for the new crop, to 13.5% from 12%.

Jul 13 - Hungarian paprika farmers fend off drought with new ideas and EU help
Paprika farmer Peter Szabo from Batya, a village by the Danube in central Hungary, had battled against worsening drought for years until he found a natural method to drastically reduce his crops' need for irrigation. Szabo began mixing volcanic minerals into the soil, which helps it retain water. Since then he has had to irrigate his vast paprika fields only two or three times in a year and this only in the hottest month of August, when the area around Batya, in the middle of landlocked Hungary, gets zero rainfall.

Jul 10 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market report, Week 6-10 July 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,046 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 3% and 6% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,348 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,453 per Mt for white pepper, despite the weakening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar. Malaysia black and white peppers in local market were also reported with an increase of 8% and 5% respectively when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,064 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,421 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white peppers were reported stable averaging at USD 2,080 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,854 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,569 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with 3% deficit as compared to the previous week and traded at an average of USD 4,085 per Mt locally.
- International market showed a similar trend as the local market. India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,313 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 2% and 6% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,843 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,075 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white peppers were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged. China white pepper was reported with 3% deficit as opposed to the previous week and traded its white pepper at an average of USD 4,285 per Mt internationally.
- Trade activity in US market this week was reported with less activity and price continues to slightly lower due to lack of demand from around the world. Muntok white pepper for CF July/August was reported at USD 4.150 per Mt.

Jul 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

On the back of the death of the Prime Minister of Côte d'Ivoire and the prospect of a third term of office for the incumbent President Ouattara, the expected firm opening of the London market took place. The Sep 20 high of GBP 1576 marked the only real highlight. The rest of the day was a back and forth in a GBP 30 range. Closing price GBP +13 at GBP 1563. 127 SDU's and one BDU were under the knife, with another 150 SDU's and 2 BDU's in the pipeline. It remains to be seen what will actually be tendered next week.

Jul 10 - Brazil sugar output rises 23% late in June; ethanol exports jump 
Brazilian mills produced 23% more sugar in the second half of June than in the same period a year earlier, industry group Unica said on Thursday, adding that ethanol exports in June were "surprising" with a 44% growth year-on-year. Plants in Brazil's centre-south region produced 2.72 million tonnes of sugar late in June versus 2.2 million tonnes a year ago, as they continue to favor the sweetener's output at the expense of ethanol, whose production fell 17% to 1.95 billion liters.

Jul 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With a firmer GBP London opened weaker, but was able to maintain the level in the morning with low volumes. The opening in NY put London under further pressure. Sep20 lost GBP -33 to close at GBP 1550 and in the evening Côte d'Ivoire announced the surprise death of Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly after returning from a two-month treatment of his heart condition in France. Coulibaly was the designated (and only) candidate of the governing party for the presidential elections in autumn. A new candidacy of President Ouattara seems to be programmed, which politically does not exactly suggest stability and could give some support to the oversold markets.

Jul 09 - Brazil govt sees coffee crop at 59 mln bags, sharply below market view 
Brazil's coffee production in 2020 was projected at 59 million bags on Wednesday by the country's statistics agency IBGE, a number that is sharply lower than most projections from analysts and traders. IBGE said it revised its estimate up by 3.1% from the previous month. The estimate means a production increase of 18.2% from the 2019 crop in the world's largest producer and exporter of coffee.

Jul 09 - Barry Callebaut sees improvement in June, raises mid-term outlook 
Barry Callebaut's sales volumes improved in June, letting it raise its mid-term guidance for the three-year period starting in September as it hopes to shrug off the COVID-19 hit it took in the three months to May, it said on Thursday. The company, which makes chocolate for big food groups like Nestle and Unilever, said it was confident enough to lift its mid-term guidance for fiscal years 2020/21 to 2022/23 to 5-7% sales volume growth, from 4-6% previously.
 

Jul 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The market was unimpressed by yesterday's World Chocolate Day. With low volumes (21.6k lots), London prices lost some ground, mainly due to system-related sales. Most noticeable was the Jul/Sep20 spread, which widened to GBP-94, losing a record GBP 250 in 2 weeks. Jul 20 lost GBP-53 and will trade below the GBP 1500 mark before First Notice Day next week. Sep 20 closed at GBP 1583 (GBP -6). Gradings (205 lots) also show 4 lots of Ghana, otherwise mainly IVC. Given the spread of almost GBP100, large tenders are unlikely. Conversely, this means that there will probably be some remaining stocks, which may indicate weak grind figures next week.

Jul 08 - CropEnergies expects higher EU ethanol demand as lockdowns ease 
Germany's CropEnergies AG, one of Europe's largest ethanol producers, said on Wednesday demand for bioethanol is likely to recover as easing coronavirus lockdowns across the region enable more people to use automobiles. The company has also significantly increased output of ethanol for disinfectants as fuel demand collapsed after lockdowns were imposed.

Jul 08 - EU acts to support wine sector as COVID-19 saps demand 
The European Commission proposed measures on Tuesday to increase support for the wine industry, one of the agriculture and food sectors hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Producers will be exempt from certain European Union antitrust rules for up to six months, allowing them jointly to plan production, storage or promotional activities.

Jul 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Although the volume is manageable, the ongoing negative trend continued. The Sep marked 20 new lows at GBP 1570 and is now heading for the next support at GBP 1560. On the lows, the industry hedged slightly. Closing price Sep 20 GPB +5 at GBP 1590. Commitment of Traders (figures from NY to be submitted later) as of 30.06 stands combined at 49,024 lots net long / Change -18,901 lots. Managed Money now has a net short position of 5,073 lots / Change -6,916. The London market is the clear driver of the position shifts. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as at 30 June were 1.935 mn vs. 2.087 mn from the previous year / -7%

Jul 07 - Funds raise long position in raw sugar, cut short bet in coffee 
Speculators raised a net long position in raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to June 30 by 5,839 contracts to a total long of 45,920 contracts, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Monday. They have reduced their short bet in arabica coffee futures on ICE by 2,455 contracts for a total short of 25,214 contracts by June 30, CFTC data showed.

Jul 07 - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers welcome good weather for main crop 
Rainfall was above average over most of Ivory Coast's cocoa growing regions last week, increasing the chances of a strong start to the next main crop in October, farmers said on Monday,  Farmers in the world's biggest cocoa producer said they were happy with the frequency of the downpours, which have encouraged new flowers and cherelles, though they added that some buyers were rejecting mid-crop beans because they were too damp. 

Jul 07 - COFCO hires former Comexim trader Costa to lead U.S. cash coffee sales 
Chinese commodities trader COFCO International said on Monday it has hired coffee trader Rodrigo Costa to lead its U.S. cash coffee sales unit. Costa comes from the U.S. office of Comexim, a large Brazilian coffee exporting company. He has previously worked as head of the U.S. coffee desk at Societe Generale.

Jul 07 - India agrees to export 5.2 mln T sugar, likely to sell 6 mln - trade body 
Indian mills have contracted to export 5.2 million tonnes of sugar since the current season began on Oct. 1, a leading trade body said on Monday. Mills have already shipped out 4.5 million tonnes of the sweetener, said Praful Vithalani, president of the All India Sugar Trade Association.

Jul 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Without the participation of the New York market, volumes were low, but the ongoing sales pressure continued without a break. The Sep 20 lost GBP -41 at its peak (low GBP 1575) and ended the day on the weak side with GBP -31 at GBP 1585. Friday marked the weakest week end since mid December 2018! Spreads were back in focus, Jul / Sep 20 continued to lose and traded down to GPB -30 and Sep / Dec 20 also went discount with GBP -9 at the low. Due to the holiday in NY only the Commitment of Traders figures as of 30.06 from London lost. The net position shows a significant reduction of 19,094 lots, London now stands at 26,905 lots net long. Managed Money liquidated "only" just under 2k lots, but gained almost 5k lots in fresh shorts. This week (9./10.7) the first grinding numbers from Malaysia / Brazil will be released. The rest will follow on 16.07.20.

Jul 06 - Beet farmers set to bag a bonus as sugar prices rise - DJ
East Anglia’s sugar beet growers are set to benefit from a market-linked bonus later this year, after EU sugar prices hit the required trigger point for the first time.
The sector has endured some challenging weather conditions recently, with the rain-sodden winter harvest campaign followed by near-drought conditions in the spring.
But there was better news for farmers as the reported market price for white sugar reached €379 per tonne in April, above the €375 threshold to trigger bonuses for UK sugar beet growers who had tonnage on a one-year contract with British Sugar for the 2019/20 crop.
British Sugar’s agriculture director, Peter Watson, said: “Although the 2019/20 market-linked bonus will be a relatively small premium this year, we’re pleased to see the mechanism triggered for the first time since it was introduced three years ago. We know that last year’s campaign was difficult, with unprecedented weather conditions, so it is welcome to be able to share the upside of the market with our growers.”

Jul 06 - Russia's sugar production to decline in 2020 - Interfax cites IKAR 
Russia's sugar production is expected to decline to 5.8-6.4 million tonnes this year, from 7.8 million tonnes in 2019, the Interfax news agency reported on Friday, citing an estimate by IKAR agriculture consultancy. Russia has doubled sugar output over the past decade to reduce its reliance on imports, and the resulting fall in domestic prices has pressured producers' profitability.

Jul 03 - Weekly Int'l Peppper Market Report, Week 29 June-03 July 2020 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with 2% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,084 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 2% and 3% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,289 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,260 per Mt for white pepper, despite the weakening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar. Malaysia black and white peppers in local market were reported stable at an average of USD 1,906 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,269 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,072 per Mt whilst Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable and unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with 2% deficit when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,600 per Mt. Whilst, China white pepper traded at an average of USD 4,225 per Mt locally.
- International market showed a similar trend as the local market. India black pepper was reported with the same 2% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,349 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 2% and 3% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,777 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,860 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white peppers were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l and 550 g/l were reported with 1% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,380 per Mt and USD 2,461 per Mt respectively. In contrast, Viet Nam white pepper was reported with an increase of 4% as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 3,900 per Mt. China traded its white pepper at an average of USD 4,425 per Mt internationally.

Jul 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With low volumes, the prices were able to make up ground after a slightly firmer opening. However, as is often the case, the correction did not last long and the market received a headwind from new sales, finding its bottom just below GBP 1600 base Sep20. The opening in NY did not bring any momentum either, but an hour later the market rallied by a good GBP 30 within 30 minutes. The inevitable selling pressure that followed was weak, which may also be due to the fact that NY is closed today because of tomorrow's Independence Day. The Sep20 closed at GBP 1616 (GBP +15), the first month almost unchanged. As a result, the Jul/Sep20 spread is trading at a discount again before the Jul20 expires in just under 2 weeks. Open interest is now focusing on Dec20/Mar21, the only spread that is now noteworthy trading on premium. New gradings have resulted in 134 tenderable lots.

Jul 03 - Raízen, Wilmar set to end sugar trading venture RAW - sources
Brazil's Raízen, the world's largest sugar-making company, and Asian commodities trader Wilmar International are set to end their partnership in the global sugar trading joint venture RAW, four sources familiar with the process said. The joint venture, formed in 2016, was the second-largest trader of Brazilian sugar, with volumes around 4 million tonnes annually, and its dissolution will make the market more fragmented.    

Jul 03 - Central American coffee farmers face big challenge as market shrinks - ICO chief
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) acknowledged on Thursday Central American farmers' "immense challenges" as coronavirus batters the global market and said it could help push the private sector to more sustainable practices, despite criticism of its record. The comments by Jose Sette, head of the London-based ICO, follow Guatemala's announcement on Thursday that it was leaving the global trade group, which the government said was not forceful enough in its advocacy for fairer prices.

 
Jul 03 - Guatemala says will leave the International Coffee Organization
Guatemala has decided to leave the International Coffee Organization (ICO) as of the next harvest season, the Central American nation's government said on Thursday, as it grapples with low prices that have made profits scarce for small farmers. "The ICO... has not helped to adequately address the international pricing crisis faced by producer countries," the Guatemalan government said in a statement.
 
 

Jul 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Good things come to those who wait: Not only did the prices of the entire board continue to lose ground. Also the front spread (Jul/Sep20) left the times of premium behind, sniffed briefly at a GBP -10 carry to close level money. But Sep/Dec20 (19) and Dec/Mar20 (11) are still on premium. Sep 20 tested the GBP 1600 with new lows even at GBP 1592, but then closed at GBP 1601 (GBP-19). This means that the support on the lows of April 2019 (GBP 1628) has clearly been broken, and the second month now technically has room to go as far as GBP 1580...but the chart technique is one thing in times of corona, Brexit, LID and elections in the origin. Both markets are clearly oversold, so that - technically speaking - new covers seem possible against the recent new shorts. The latest movement was certainly another liquidation of the ~12k lots that the specs in LDN were still long...

Jul 02 - July raw sugar delivery totals 4,993 lots, about 254,000 T - ICE
Physical delivery against the July raw sugar contract on ICE Futures U.S. totaled 4,993 lots, or about 254,000 tonnes, sharply below the record volume seen in the previous expiration, exchange data showed on Wednesday. The July delivery numbers were the lowest for that contract month since 2014, confirming market expectations for a small amount. The data released by the exchange was in line with information given to Reuters by brokers on Tuesday.

Jul 02 - Guatemala to leave International Coffee Organization, sources say
Guatemala has begun the process of leaving the International Coffee Organization (ICO), spurred by concern over falling prices of the commodity, a government official and an industry representative said on Wednesday. Coffee, mainly arabica, is one of the top agricultural exports of the Central American nation, which is grappling with the economic challenges of the coronavirus crisis.

Jul 02 - Child labour on Ivory Coast cocoa farms rises during pandemic, study finds
Child labour has increased in top grower Ivory Coast's cocoa sector during its coronavirus lockdown, according to a report released on Wednesday by an industry-backed foundation. The percentage of children engaged in labour between mid-March and mid-May rose to 19.4% from 16% in the same period in recent years, according to a survey of over 1,400 households conducted by the International Cocoa Initiative (ICI).

Jul 02 - Congo and the chocolate factory: New producer hits the sweet spot
Aisha Kalinda melts the chunks of cocoa in a pan and spoons the brown gloop into a mould which will become the latest bar produced at the Lowa chocolate factory, the first locally owned producer in Democratic Republic of Congo. For decades, eastern Congo's underground riches such as gold and coltan have sustained cycles of deadly violence in the area.

 Jul 02 - Honduran coffee exports fall nearly 30% in June 
Honduran coffee exports dropped 29.6% in June from a year earlier after farmers cut production because of drought and low global prices, national coffee institute IHCAFE said on Wednesday. Central America's top coffee producer and exporter reported shipments of 651,746.23 60-kilogram bags for the month, down from 926,291.37 bags in the corresponding month a year earlier, preliminary IHCAFE reports show.

 Jul 02 - Costa Rican coffee exports rise 5.6% year-on-year in June
Costa Rican coffee exports rose 5.6% in June, according to national coffee institute ICAFE data released on Wednesday, reversing course after a substantial dip the month before. Coffee shipments totaled 144,389 60-kg bags in June, compared to 136,676 bags in the same month last year, the data showed.   

Jul 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

No sooner had the Jul 20 options expired at midday than the quotations collapsed. First of all the Jul / Sep 20 spread in London, which lost almost GBP 70 and traded down to level money, the Sep / Dec spread lost GBP 37 and traded only with a slight premium of GBP +10. The Sep 20 lost GBP 65 / Low GBP 1617 at the peak and ended the day near the lows with GBP -62 at GBP 1620. Jul 20 LDN GBP -127 / close GBP 1623. The next significant support of GBP 1628 / Lows from March 2019 has fallen, next support we see at GBP 1600 / GBP 1588. As yesterday's Tuesday still counts in the last reporting period of the Commitment of Traders, there is already speculation about how many new shorts have come into the market, these were certainly to a large extent the trigger for yesterday's movement. London lost 12% last month, NY -9.2%.

Jul 01 - U.S. biodiesel output falls to 143 million gallons in April - EIA
U.S. biodiesel production fell to 143 million gallons in April from 151 million gallons a month earlier, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a report on Tuesday. Soybean oil remained the largest biodiesel feedstock, with 672 million lbs used in April, or about 63 percent of the total. In March, soyoil used in biodiesel production was 656 million lbs.

Jul 01 - Costa Rican coffee may go unharvested as pandemic creates migrant worker shortage 
Coffee connoisseurs across the world prize Costa Rica's gourmet beans, but local farmers warn that if a coronavirus-induced foreign labor shortage is not resolved soon, the raw material used to make countless lattes and espressos could spoil on the bush. The prospect of a bumper crop this year for the relatively small Central American coffee producer has grown bittersweet as fears grow the harvest may not be picked by the mostly Nicaraguan and Panamanian hands who traditionally do the work.

Jun 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With the GBP weak due to concerns over the British infrastructure program, London was much calmer yesterday compared to last week. Although prices attempted to continue Friday afternoon's downward movement to mark new lows with considerable volatility, they closed only slightly lower in the end. Sep 20 lost GBP -6 to finish the day at GBP 1682, with the front spread losing most of its value, having narrowed by another GBP-33 since Friday and now trading at GBP 67. The market appears to be flattening further and a contango structure seems to be within reach in the not too distant future. Today at noon the Jul20 options expire in London, where there are still about 4000 put options open with a strike of GBP 1750, which could keep the front month in check today. In addition, there are reports from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana of good rainfall.

Jun 30 - Expiration of July raw sugar contract to see small delivery
The expiration of the July raw sugar contract on ICE this week will result in a much smaller delivery than the record amount seen on the previous contract, according to sugar market participants. Tuesday will be the last trading day for the July contract on ICE, and the market will know unofficially how much sugar traders and commercial players are expected to deliver against the expiration. 

  Jun 30 - Heavy rains in Ivory Coast boost prospects for main cocoa harvest, but hurt mid-crop
Above-average rains last week in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa regions bode well for the start of the next main crop in October but high humidity has caused mould to grow on some beans being harvested for the ongoing mid-crop, farmers said on Monday. The world’s top cocoa producer is in the middle of its rainy season. Farmers said that if strong rainfall continued in July, the October-to-March main crop would start early and yields would be good through the end of 2020.
 

Jun 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

While the Jul 20 tested the GBP 1900 levels mentioned on Friday in the morning, there was a clear countermovement in the afternoon. Aggressive selling of the Jul / Sep 20 spread (which at times lost over GBP 50) led to a selling vacuum with fundamental market participants almost absent. Sep 20 temporarily lost GBP 81 / Low GBP 1683 and ended the day with GBP -76 to GBP 1688. NY Sep 20 US$ -109 / Closing US$ 2277. Thus both markets equalised more than the previous day's profits and are back in the old range around GBP 1700 / US$ 2300. Commitment of Traders as of 23.06 shows a reduction of the Combined Net Long Position from 7,725 lots to 67,925 lots Net Long. Within Managed Money the change is even more significant. In LDN the specs liquidated 5k lots and added 5k lots of fresh shorts. Managed Money combined -13,748 lots! +1.8.43 Net Long

Jun 29 - Funds raise long position in raw sugar, boost short bet in coffee
Speculators raised a net long position in raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to June 23 by 17,453 contracts to a total long of 40,081 contracts, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Friday. They have increased their short bet in arabica coffee futures on ICE by 3,516 contracts for a total short of 27,669 contracts by June 23, CFTC data showed.

 Jun 29 - Indonesia's Pertamina to start production of B100 biodiesel next year- CEO Indonesia state oil company PT Pertamina will start producing 3,000 barrels per day of 'green' diesel made from 100% palm oil starting in June next year, CEO Nicke Widyawati told Parliament on Monday. Pertamina plans to gradually increase output to 6,000 bpd, Widyawati said, without specifying a timeline.

Jun 29 - Ghana receives first $200 million of syndicated loan to cocoa sector
Commercial lenders and development finance institutions have disbursed the first $200 million of a $600-million syndicated loan to support Ghana's cocoa sector, the African Development Bank (AfDB) said on Friday. The loan deal was signed in November and is intended to help Ghana, the world's number two cocoa producer, raise yields and boost production. The lenders include the AfDB, the Japan International Cooperation Agency and Credit Suisse.

Jun 26 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday in numbers: LDN July 20 GBP +66 / closing GBP 1892, LDN Sep GBP+56 / closing GBP 1764 (high GBP 1765), LDN Jul / Sep 20 spread from GBP +116 to GBP +140...New York Sep 20 US$ +80 / closing US$ 2386. The Jul 20 options expiring at the end of the month in London, with strike levels around GBP 1900 / 1950 and cover against the short positions led to the significant breakout from past levels yesterday. NY in particular, where the 50 day moving average was broken, giving Algos / Black Box traders new buying signals against the remaining shorts, led yesterday's trend. From a fundamental point of view, nothing has changed and we should prepare ourselves for further highly volatile daily developments until the July 20 date expires.

Jun 26 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 22-26 June 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed mixed response as only Viet Nam and Sri Lanka origins were reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,153 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 3% and 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,250 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,164 per Mt for white pepper. The increase of Indonesia pepper locally could be contributed to the increase of demand as the price of Indonesia black and white pepper increased to an average of IDR 32,000 per Kg from IDR 31,000 per Kg in previous week for black pepper and IDR 45,000 per Kg from IDR 44,500 per Kg in previous week for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper in local market were reported with an increase of 4% and 2% respectively as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,909 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,275 per Mt for white pepper. In contrast, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with 4% and 7% deficit respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,042 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,854 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with 2% deficit when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,643 per Mt.
- International market showed a similar trend as the local market. India black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,417 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 3% and 1% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,735 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,757 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 2% and 1% respectively when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,420 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,870 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with 3%, 3% and 1% deficit respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,408 per Mt, USD 2,488 per Mt and USD 3,760 per Mt respectively.

Jun 26 - India's sugar output, exports could rise in 2020/21- trade body 
India's sugar production in the next marketing year could jump by 12% from a year ago as farmers in the second biggest producing western state of Maharashtra expanded the area under sugar cane, a leading trade body said on Thursday. Higher production could force New Delhi to extend incentives for overseas sales of sugar into the new season, weighing on global prices, which are already under pressure due to rising production in Brazil.
 
 

Jun 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Uninspired and with still low volume despite a GBP 29 range, it looked like consolidation back to current levels around GBP 1700. The Sep 20 ended the day with GBP +14 at GBP 1708, above the GBP 1700 level but the bulls are not getting any louder.
July promises to be much more exciting. Release of the Q2 grinding figures, the expiring July 20 date LDN, the question of how much cocoa is still being graded and how the Jul / Sep 20 spread is behaving - all this could coincide with the new forward sales figures from the origins and the S&D estimates of the current crop

Jan 25 - Brazil's sugar production up 57%; ethanol sales improve
Sugar production in Brazil's center-south region reached 10.57 million tonnes so far in the 2020-21 season that began in April, 57% more than in the previous season, industry group Unica said on Wednesday. Mills in Brazil continue to push for maximum sugar output at the expense of ethanol, with cane allocation for production of the sweetener reaching near a record 47% early in June. Sugar currently yields better financial returns for mills than ethanol.  

Jun 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Without any significant highlights in the course of the day, prices yesterday moved rather sideways, albeit with a slightly negative trend. Every tentative attempt to achieve a sustainable strengthening above the 1700 mark at the Sep 20 base was destroyed by managed money liquidations and hedge sales. On balance, Sep 20 found support at GBP 1677 with a range of GBP39, to close almost unchanged at GBP 1694 (-4). Yesterday, 103 lots were graded, including many re-grades. The market seems to be the best buyer for many. Ghana reaffirms its ambitions to produce a crop of 1.5 million mts in 2027. With regard to the current estimate of 780k mt an increase of 10% per year.

Jun 24 - Copersucar says bulk of sugar sales hedged; sees ethanol market recovery
Brazilian sugar and ethanol merchant Copersucar SA said on Tuesday that the bulk of its sugar sales for the 2020-21 season have been hedged already, as the company prepares for a busy sugar trading campaign in the new season. Copersucar, who partners with Cargill in the world's largest sugar trader Alvean Sugar SL, sees a sharp increase in Brazilian exports, while projecting that global demand for sugar will remain stable in 2020-21.

Jun 24 - Ghana cocoa regulator says banks will finance 2020/21 buying as usual
The Ghana Cocoa Board (Cocobod) said on Tuesday that its annual pre-export financing will be raised as usual through a syndicated loan, denying a report its usual lenders had declined to underwrite the risk. Loan Pricing Corporation, a unit of financial data firm Refinitiv, reported last week that financing for purchases during the 2020/21 growing season would be a club loan to reduce risk amid uncertainty related to the coronavirus pandemic.  

Jun 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Due to further selling pressure, Sep 20 broke through the two previous week's lows at GBP 1662 and traded, albeit only just below, to prices of GBP 1660. Industrial price hedges at the levels and around GBP 1600 for 2021 then led to a significant rally of just under GBP 50 / Sep 20 in the afternoon. The low volume of 16k lots speaks volumes and, despite high volatility, shows the current cautious activity of all participants. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as at 21.06 were 1.936 mn vs. 2.080 from the previous year / -6.9%.

Jun 23 - Funds raise long position in raw sugar, boost short bet in coffee
Speculators raised a net long position in raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to June 16 by 13,081 contracts to a total long of 22,628 contracts, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday. They have increased their short bet in arabica coffee futures on ICE by 6,664 contracts for a total short of 24,153 contracts, CFTC data showed, as coffee prices went below the $1 per pound level with the prospect of ample supplies and falling demand due to closures of coffee shops.

Jun 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Due to further selling pressure, Sep 20 broke through the two previous week's lows at GBP 1662 and traded, albeit only just below, to prices of GBP 1660. Industrial price hedges at the levels and around GBP 1600 for 2021 then led to a significant rally of just under GBP 50 / Sep 20 in the afternoon. The low volume of 16k lots speaks volumes and, despite high volatility, shows the current cautious activity of all participants. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as at 21.06 were 1.936 mn vs. 2.080 from the previous year / -6.9%.

Jun 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Further selling pressure in the morning pushed the prices down to exactly the same low as the previous day at GBP 1663 / Sep 20. However, a downward breakthrough failed and in the afternoon, due to a weak British pound and price hedging by the industry, the corresponding countermovement occurred. Closing price Sep 20 GBP +28 at GBP 1700, close to the highs of GBP 1702. The Sep / Dec 20 spread continued to converge to "only" GBP +36, a strange picture as it is the last date before the LID and one should theoretically at least be firm on the spread. In the grading room there are 63 SDU's and 1 BDU under the knife.

Jun 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

In London, the market came under pressure again after initial support. Prices continued their bearish trend, and even tentative new buying in New York, supported by profit taking and the weaker currency, was not much of a barrier. The Sep 20 lost GBP -31 and closed at GBP 1672, while the April 2019 lows to GBP 1630 are within reach and should be the next logical support in the short term. The structure has flattened significantly, with the Sep/Dec20 spread converging around GBP 13 and now trading at GBP 45. From origin we are receiving reports of continued heavy rainfall in the greater Abidjan area, which is once again isolated by corona.

Jun 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the correction of the previous day, the expected countermovement occurred, as so often, right in the opening. The Sep 20 opened firmly and rose to the daily high of GBP 1724, then corrected quickly towards GBP 1700 where it remained for most of the day. Speculative sales as well as price hedging by the industry around GBP 1700 alternated. Closing price Sep 20 virtually unchanged at GBP +3 at GBP 1703, open interest in New York fell by 3,600 lots before today's First Notice Day Jul 20, suggesting further liquidation of the longs. Poorly sold origins and mt specs / funds at just under GBP 150 "under water", the bears are still significantly louder than the bulls.

Jun 17 - Wait to load sugar in Brazil Santos RUMO terminal hits 45 days 
The average waiting time for vessels to load sugar at Brazil's main export terminal in the Santos port rose to staggering 45 days in the week ended in June 14, according to data from shipping agency Cargonave. Waiting time for vessels at the RUMO SA terminal in Latin America's largest port was an already high 41 days in the previous week, Cargonave said. At this time last year waits were between five and seven days.

Jun 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With the British pound still weak, quotations came under pressure again. This was apparently due to further long liquidations, mainly in London. Sep 20 opened weakly and lost the morning over approx. -25 GBP. At these levels, it withstood further selling pressure for a while, until the opening in New York brought further selling pressure, finally breaking through the support at 1710 and reaching new lows at 1684. It closed at GBP 1700 (GBP-45). Interestingly enough, also the forwards came under pressure with GBP -28/29 through the board. The Jul/Sep20 spread was largely unimpressed by the rest of the bearish action and diverged to GBP 144. Arrivals from Côte d'Ivoire were reported at 1.91mto (-7.1% vs VJ).

Jun 16 - Sugar hedging by Brazil mills seen at 21.1 mln T - consultancy 
Brazilian sugar mills hedged 21.1 million tonnes of exports using ICE New York raw sugar futures by May 31, or about 89% of projected sugar exports in the 2020-21 season, Sao Paulo-based Archer Consulting said on Monday. Archer said the estimated hedging volume is the highest since it started to project mills' positions back in 2012.

 Jun 16 - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers worried by heavy rains 
Well-above average rainfall in some of Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions last week raised fears of plantations flooding and poor quality beans, farmers said on Monday. The world’s top cocoa producer is in the middle of its rainy season and farmers across the country said there were enough pods on trees for the April-to-September mid-crop harvest.

Jun 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the significant downward movement of the previous day, the corresponding countermovement followed on Friday. The Sep 20 followed the firm opening and traded right in the morning from the highs of GBP 1750, making up a good 2/3 of the previous day's losses. The July / Sep 20 spread widened by an impressive GBP 30 to a new high of GBP +147 with moderate volumes. Panic under the last remaining shorts? Closing price Sep 20 GBP +20 at GBP 1745, thus above the important technical support of GBP 1740. Commitment of Traders as of 09.06. shows a reduction of the net long position from 6,245 lots to 89,243 lots net long. London reduced over 9k lots, while NY increased almost 3k lots. It should be noted that this all occurred before the significant downward movement in the second half of the week.

Jun 15 - Global coffee stocks to reach 6-year peak on rising output, USDA reports 
Global coffee stocks at the end of the 2020-21 (Oct-Sept) season are expected to grow to near 42 million 60-kg bags, the highest in six years, as production grows more than consumption, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said on Friday. In its semiannual report on coffee markets and trade, the USDA forecasts global coffee production will peak at a record of 176.1 million bags, up 9.1 million bags from 2019-20, mainly due to an all-time high output seen at 67.9 million bags in top exporter Brazil.
 
 

Jun 12 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 8-12 June 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed mixed response with a rather positive outlook as only Malaysia origin was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,167 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with significant increase of 11% as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,134 per Mt. The increase of Indonesia pepper could be contributed to the increase of demand while the stock were limited as well as the strengthening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (IDR 14,057 @ USD 1), an appreciation by 1% recorded. In local currency, the price of Indonesia black pepper increased to an average of IDR 30,000 per Kg from IDR 27,500 per Kg in previous week. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 3,166 per Mt. Malaysia black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 1,726 per Mt whilst Malaysia white pepper was reported with slight increase of 1% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,141 per Mt. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white peppers were reported with an increase of 2% and 3% respectively as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,199 per Mt and USD 3,023 per Mt respectively. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported stable and was traded at an average of USD 2,722 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,225 per Mt locally.
- International market showed a similar trend as the local market. India black pepper was reported with the same 1% increase as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,431 per Mt. Continuing the trend of the farm gate price, Indonesia black pepper was reported with significant increase of 10% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,605 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 3,761 per Mt. In response to the harvest season, Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with 2% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,601 per Mt for black pepper and USD 5,156 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l was reported stable with slightly increase averaging at USD 2,540 per Mt whilst Viet Nam black pepper 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,620 per Mt and USD 3,850 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,425 per Mt internationally.

Jun 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With many countries on holiday, there was little significant resistance to the sale of specs. Even London did not resist the aggressive selling, spreads like flat price, in New York (the open interest decreased this week alone by impressive 25k lots). The Sep 20 was still hesitant at GBP 1840 and found support towards GBP 1810 with GBP 1816 in the low. Closing price Sep 20 GBP -33 at GBP 1725 / Sep 20 $ -103 at $ 2291. The long term 14 month trend line was broken yesterday. The next support should be on the April lows of GBP 1710 and GBP 1700, which would technically clear the way to GBP 1630. The neck line of the head-shoulder formation was broken yesterday, textbook evidence of a weak market (but only textbook evidence). GEPEX reported a 3% increase in IVC grindings in May, compensating for the losses in April.

Jun 12 - U.S. sugar imports seen falling 10% as stocks increase - USDA
United States sugar imports are projected at 3.09 million short tonnes in the 2020-21 season (October-September), 10.4% less than seen a month earlier, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Thursday. In its monthly supply and demand report, the USDA kept U.S. sugar production estimate for the new crop unchanged at 9 million short tonnes -- which is 12% more than the previous year-- but it increased estimated 2020-21 beginning stocks from 1.27 million short tonnes in May to 1.63 million short tonnes on Thursday. 

  Jun 12 - EU sugar beet crop threatened by dry weather, pest damage
Dry spring weather and early pest attacks have hurt sugar beet crops in the European Union (EU) where farmers discouraged by low returns had already reduced sowings, but good summer weather could limit losses, growers said. It was too early to give precise estimates as sugar beets were only entering the key development stage but it was unlikely this year's yields would be above average, growers said.

Jun 12 - Coronavirus spreads among fruit and vegetable packers, worrying U.S. officials
From apple packing houses in Washington state to farm workers in Florida and a California county known as "the world's salad bowl," outbreaks of the novel coronavirus are emerging at U.S. fruit and vegetable farms and packing plants. A rising number of sick farm and packing house workers comes after thousands of meat plant employees contracted the virus and could lead to more labor shortages and a fresh wave of disruption to U.S. food production.
 
 

Jun 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

This week's back and forth continued yesterday. After an unchanged opening, new long liquidations put the front months under pressure. The Jul/Sep20 spread of 4.5k around GBP 105 was again quite agile and continued its gradual recovery, and remains the only constant in a hazy picture. The Sep/Dec20 spread, on the other hand, is hesitant and found support around GBP 70...In NY, open interest in the front month reduced considerably. An interpretation of the market picture is hardly possible. While Covid, LID and expected surplus should put pressure on the market, the still firm diffs (not really an indicator of oversupply) are more likely to provide tailwind to the bulls.

Jun 11 - Vietnam coffee production seen falling 3.5% to 30.2 mln bags - USDA
Coffee production in Vietnam, the world's second largest producer, is seen falling 3.5% to 30.2 million 60-kg bags in the 2020-21 crop, compared with the previous season, according to a projection by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). In a report published late on Tuesday, the USDA said unfavorable weather over some parts of Vietnam's coffee fields reduced potential agricultural yields for the 2020-21 crop.
 
 

Jun 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A failed breach of the long term trend line around GBP 1740 and oversold markets acted as a mirror of the past few days, causing spreads to diverge and fixed prices to rise. The Sep 20 traded at a low of GBP 1747, recovered quickly and closed the day at GBP +24 at GBP 1772. With the First Notice Day Jul 20 NY next week Wednesday, spec activity will focus on rolling the positions. Jul / Sep 20 has been drifting from $+13 to $+75 over the last few days, with little available cocoa and new position limits, the lack of actionism seems to be slowly breaking out there. Yesterday in Ghana's capital Accra there was heavy flooding and one fatality

Jun 10 - Ivory Coast to reduce fees paid by domestic cocoa exporters
Ivory Coast's Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) is introducing reforms aimed at boosting domestic exporters, including by reducing fees they pay when acquiring beans, CCC and industry sources said. The new measures also limit stockpiling of beans by multinational traders that domestic exporters say drive up prices and prevent them from fulfilling export contracts. 

Jun 09 - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers say more rains needed to boost crop
Below average rainfall in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa-growing regions last week meant more downpours were needed to strengthen the crop, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is currently in its rainy season, which runs from mid-March to late October.

Jun 09 - Cuban sugar harvest disappoints at 1.2 million tonnes raw sugar
The Cuban sugar harvest has ended at 1.2 million metric tons of raw sugar, according to Reuters estimates, 100,000 tonnes less than the previous season and 20 percent below the Communist-run government's forecast. The estimate is based on results reported by eight of 13 sugar-producing provinces and local press reports and sources in the others.

Jun 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With the highest activity in the front months, the gradual downward trend continues. The second month, Sep20, which saw the largest volume with 10,426 lots, lost GBP-20 and closed at GBP 1748, with the Sep/Dec20 spread losing another GBP 14 to now GBP 54. We are approaching the mid-April lows, which mark the next technical support at GBP 1710. In Côte d'Ivoire, arrivals of 31,000mt in the last week are now 130mt behind the previous year (1,850mt / -6.4%), from Ghana purchases as of 21 May are reported from 7,29mt vs. 751mt in the previous year. The origins have yet to book volumes for 2020/21, which can be seen as a bullish signal for origin differentials.

Jun 09 - U.S. futures broker RJO forms new soft commodities team
R.J. O'Brien & Associates (RJO), a large U.S.-based independent futures broker, said on Monday its London-based sister company RJO Limited hired three brokers to offer brokerage services in soft commodities. Gary Papier, James Hunt and David Cutler will take charge of the brokerage in London, reporting to the global head of Commercial Agriculture Renee Laird, RJO said in a statement.

Jun 08 - Sugar shipping rush in Brazil amid COVID surge causes huge vessel logjam
More than 70 ships are lined up at Brazil's port of Santos to load sugar for export in a queue that may take a month to clear after buyers worldwide scrambled to get ahead of possible disruption caused by the ravages of the coronavirus pandemic. A large share of the global sugar trade turned to Brazil, which posted record output, and after poor harvests in India and Thailand. The South American nation now has, however, the second-most COVID-19 cases worldwide at more than 610,000.

Jun 08 - Funds erase short bet in sugar; switch from long to short in coffee
Speculators practically erased their net short position in raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to June 2, trimming 4,647 contracts to hold a near neutral position in that market, data from U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday. Sugar futures touched a fresh 2-1/2-month peak on Friday, closing up for the sixth consecutive session as an apparent tightness in the physical market and the oil price recovery lent support to prices.

Jun 08 - Brazilian ethanol firm GVO's bondholders ask to accelerate $750 mln in debt - sources
The largest bondholders of Brazilian sugar and ethanol company GVO this week requested the acceleration of all its obligations, including $750 million in bonds, forcing the company closer to an in-court reorganization, three sources with knowledge of the matter said. Among bondholders leading the request against Grupo Virgolino de Oliveira, as the company is formally known, are Argentem Creek Partners, AllianceBernstein and Chilean fund Moneda. The company did not immediately comment on the matter. Argentem Creek declined to comment, and the other bondholders did not immediately comment.

Jun 05 - Weekly Int'l pepper Market Report, Week 1-5 June 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed mixed response with a rather positive outlook as only Sri Lanka origin was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,143 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with significant increase of 12% and 8% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 1,930 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,158 per Mt for white pepper. The increase of Indonesia pepper could be contributed to the increase of demand while the stock were limited as well as the strengthening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (IDR 14,253 @ USD 1), an appreciation by 3% recorded. Malaysia's black and white peppers were reported with an increase of 2% respectively when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,728 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,101 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with an increase of 3% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,156 per Mt whilst Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable and unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper was traded at an average of USD 2,711 per Mt. Thus, recording a 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,163 per Mt.
- International market showed a similar trend as the local market. India black pepper was reported with the same 2% increase as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,408 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with significant increase of 11% and 8% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,369 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,749 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 4%, 5% and 8% respectively as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,530 per Mt, USD 2,604 per Mt and USD 3,808 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,363 per Mt.

Jun 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With the fixed opening of GBP +30, the resulting highs of GBP 1827 and the testing of the 200 day moving average at GBP 1823 / Sep 20, yesterday's highlights were already made within the first minutes. Fresh shorts brought the market back to the GBP 1800 mark relatively quickly and the Sep 20 ended the day with GBP -10 at GBP 1787 and thus at the lower end of the current channel. The current bearish consensus in the market is not yet showing any significant effect. Volume and liquidity were also absent yesterday.

Jun 05 - Brazil coffee harvest hits 23% of planted area by June 2, says Safras & Mercados
Brazilian coffee producers have harvested 23% of the total planted area for the 2020-21 crop by June 2, less than the 30% level seen in the same period a year ago, agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercados said on Thursday. The harvest pace is also slower than the five-year average of 25%.
 
 

Jun 04 - Cargill halts public reporting of quarterly results 
Privately held U.S. agribusiness Cargill Inc said on Wednesday it will no longer issue public releases on quarterly earnings, halting the disclosures that the company has provided since 1996. Cargill, the largest privately held company in the United States, said it will continue to publicly disclose annual revenue and the percent of operating cash flow that is reinvested back into the company.

 Jun 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the correction on the previous day, calm returned to the markets, understandably and with low volumes. The Sep 20 in LDN traded around the GBP 1800 level, marking a new low of GBP 1785 but ending the day almost unchanged at GBP 1797 / GBP +3. The Jul / Sep 20 spread widened by GBP +12 (GBP +117) and also recovered from the previous day. In New York activity was also in spreads and further roll of the index funds (20k spreads were traded in 2 days) weakened the structure there. Fundamentally, the Silly Season is in full swing. Here the Q2 grindings are keeping the market busy. We are not yet throwing a number into the ring...

Jun 04 - Global sugar supply balance to shift to surplus on record Brazil crop 
The global sugar supply balance is seen shifting from a deficit to a small surplus in the new season starting in October due to rising production in Brazil and India, and soft demand amid the coronavirus outbreak, broker and analyst INTL FCStone said on Wednesday. FCStone slashed its view for a supply deficit in the current global season to 3.1 million tonnes from 8.6 million tonnes seen in March, and projected a surplus of 0.5 million tonnes for the next season (2020-21, Oct-Sept). 

  Jun 04 - Coffee harvest by Brazil co-op Cooxupe at 8.9% of planted area by May 29 
Brazil's largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe said on Thursday its producers had harvested 8.9% of the planted area by May 29 compared with 11.7% in the same period of 2019. Compared with 2018, a year also marked by high productivity levels in arabic coffee just like in 2020, the harvest is slightly advanced. Two years ago, Cooxupe producers had harvested 8.05% of the planted area.

Jun 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Just in time for the opening NY at 2 pm, liquidations of the longs put pressure on the quotations. Sep 20 in London was, after a slightly firmer opening, already on its way towards GBP 1800 and broke through the GBP 1800 barrier / low GBP 1786 in the afternoon, closing GBP -50 at GBP 1794 (lowest closing price since the end of April). NY lost more significantly at $ -73 / closing $ 2382. Volume was, exceptionally, quite respectable. Yesterday marked the first day of the "roll period" of the index funds in New York, where the Jul / Sep 20 spread went from $+50 to $+18, this coupled with the sales of speculative longs fueled the downward movement. Due to yesterday's movement, we do not yet see a trend reversal or a breakout from the current no man's land.

Jun 03 - ISO sees global sugar deficit of 9.3 mln T in 2019/20 
The International Sugar Organization on Tuesday forecast a global sugar deficit of 9.3 million tonnes in the 2019/20 season, the largest shortfall in 11 years, although the figure did not include a provision for the coronavirus impact. In February, the agency forecast a deficit of 9.44 million tonnes.     

Jun 03 - India's sugar output could rise nearly 3.5% from previous forecast 
India's sugar output is expected to rise nearly 1.89% this year from a previous forecast as the country-wide lockdown to stem the spread of the new coronavirus has led to the closure of small jaggery making units, diverting more cane to sugar mills. Mills in India, the world's biggest sugar producer, are likely to churn out around 27 million tonnes of the sweetener in the current season that began on Oct. 1, 2019, up from the previous forecast of 26.5 million tonnes, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said in a statement.
 

Jun 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With a firmer pound sterling against the US dollar, the market opened slightly negative and, with minimal volume, had lost GBP 15 by midday, when NY brought support. The remainder of the day saw a narrow range. Sep20 traded just 3,831 lots before closing at GBP +4 at GBP 1844. The front spread has narrowed slightly, but is still trading at a triple-digit premium of +112. Despite the further inverse structure, managed money "activism" is noticeably decreasing - it will probably take more (outright and/or fundamental) momentum to inject life back into the market... it does not help there that purchases in Ghana with 721k mt vs. 744k mt last year are still lagging behind, although the arrivals of neighbouring Côte d'Ivoire in the past week are 8k mt above the same week last year (but overall still -5.9% below last year).

Jun 02 - Ivory Coast rains bring relief to cocoa farmers 
Above-average rains last week in most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions could boost the last stage of the April-to-September cocoa mid-crop, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is currently in its rainy season, which runs from mid-March to late October, when there are meant to be regular downpours.

  Jun 02 - Costa Rican coffee exports dip 13% year-on-year in May 
Costa Rican coffee exports fell 13% in May, according to national coffee institute ICAFE data released on Monday, likely due to advance purchases in April as buyers sought to ease expected logistical jams from coronavirus disruptions. Coffee shipments totaled 143,781 60-kg bags in May, compared to 165,214 bags in the same month last year, the data showed.

Jun 02 - Honduran coffee exports drop nearly 21% y/y in May 
Honduran coffee exports dropped 20.9% year-on-year in May after farmers cut production because of low prices for their crop on the world market as well as a drought, the country's national coffee institute IHCAFE reported on Monday. Central America's top coffee producer and exporter reported shipments of 729,957.83 60-kilogram bags for the month, compared to 922,396.76 bags in the same month a year earlier, according to preliminary reports from IHCAFE.

Jun 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

As so often lately, most of the activity took place in the afternoon. In the morning, London traded in a GBP 6 range in non-existent volumes. In the afternoon, profit taking on short-term specs tested the GBP 1800 level (Low GBP 1808) before buy orders in the afternoon led to a firmer afternoon session. Sep 20 ended the day at the high of GBP 1840 / GBP +6. Commitment of traders as of 26.05. does not bring any new insights either. The combined long position decreased by 2,181 lots (London +25, NY -2205) to 95,941 lots net long. The ICCO reduced its deficit expectation by a conservative 5000 mt to now 80,000 mt deficit of the current crop.

Jun 01 - ICCO sees global cocoa deficit of 80,000 T in 2019/20 
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) on Friday forecast a global cocoa deficit of 80,000 tonnes in the 2019/20 season, which runs from October to September, slightly below its previous projection of 85,000 tonnes. In its latest quarterly update, the inter-governmental body, cut its forecast for global production by 74,000 tonnes to 4.75 million, although the impact was more than offset by a 78,000 tonne cut in its global grindings outlook to 4.78 million. 

May 29 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 25-29 May 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed mixed response with a rather positive outlook as only Indonesia's Muntok white pepper was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,043 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 1,728 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,913 per Mt. Malaysia's black and white peppers were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with significant increase of 17% and 11% respectively as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,093 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,939 per Mt for white pepper. The increase of Viet Nam price could be contributed to the significant increase of China's pepper demand after China's lock down ended. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported steady and was traded at an average of USD 2,733 per Mt. China white pepper was also reported stable averaging at USD 4,114 per Mt.
- International market showed similar mixed response with a rather positive outlook. India black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,308 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,133 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,468 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Following the local market trend, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 7%, 7% and 10% respectively as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,440 per Mt, USD 2,482 per Mt and USD 3,526 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 4,309 per Mt.
- US market was reported with a slow movement of several origins. Despite the time of year usually saw more stock of Sarawak from new crop, it was reported to be very quiet. Furthermore, as Indonesia and Brazil offered limited amount with no possible prompt shipment, Viet Nam was able to supply a large quantity to market. US stock for the 3rd and 4th quarters are yet to be covered while buyers are anxious on low price contract.

May 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday, the psychological barrier at GBP 1800 and the 50 day moving average there provided support right in the early morning. The Sep 20 marked a low of GBP 1799 yesterday and speculative buying in the afternoon then provided a much firmer afternoon's trading. Sep 20 ended the day with GBP +27 at GBP 1834. New York was much more active, gaining $ 66 and ending the day at $ 2387. Bandwidth yesterday LDN GBP 38, New York $ 92! The LDN / NY arbitrage extended accordingly to GBP - 103. It is currently difficult to find a strategy behind the specs / funds activities. Seller one day and buyer the next. London lost 5% this month and New York "only" 2%.

May 29 - China lets safeguard on sugar imports to expire - industry group 
The Chinese government decided not to renew a safeguard on sugar imports in place since 2017, letting the measure expire on Friday, which will lead to a substantial decrease in the import tariff for sugar entering the Asian nation. According to Unica, a Brazilian sugar industry group, the decision by China's government to not renew the safeguard is the result of a negotiation between the two countries, in which Brazil canceled a request for a panel to investigate the safeguard at the World Trade Organization (WTO).

May 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The expected firm opening after the pound sterling strengthened against the US dollar was poor and was soon cleared. Low volume slowed the pace of events until the afternoon. With the opening in NY, both markets weakened and the GBP fell even more sharply. London tested new 5-week lows at 1803 (Sep20). With around 3000 contracts traded, Sep20 closed at GBP 1807 (-11). The restrained but noticeable downward trend of the past weeks seems to be continuing. The question remains as to how long it will do so. Next support would be the near 50-day moving average (GBP 1800). Overall, we are currently rather at the lower end of the recent range. In spite of bearish signals, such as generally expected surpluses, buying is becoming more probable in the unanimous opinion. What else? In Ghana, the Ministry of Agriculture may now take over the COCOBOD operations, according to the local press.

May 28 - COFCO to turn Santos port terminal from grains to sugar – statement
Chinese commodities trader COFCO International said on Wednesday it will use its 12A terminal in Brazil's Santos port to move sugar instead of grains beginning in July and through the end of the year. COFCO, which manages four sugar and ethanol facilities in Brazil, said the change was a result of higher sugar production in the country this year.

 May 28 - Nordzucker cuts losses, says post-lockdown sugar market to stabilize
Germany's second largest sugar refiner Nordzucker reported reduced losses on Wednesday and said it hopes to return to profit in its new financial year as easing coronavirus lockdowns stabilise sugar prices and demand. Following benefits from cost-cutting and efficiency programmes, Nordzucker posted a 15 million euro ($16.4 million) net loss for its 2019/20 financial year to end-February against a loss of 36 million euros in the previous year. 
 

May 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

On the first day of trading, after the long weekend, the market completely gave up Friday's gains. Sep 20 traded on lows of GBP 1815 with 2 hours to go, ending the day negatively at GBP -35 at GBP 1818. Slight selling pressure and mainly a strong British pound vs. the US dollar were the triggers for the weak start to the short week. The Jul / Sep 20 spread traded yesterday at GBP +138 to a new high.  Sep / Dec 20 weakened by almost GBP 20 at GBP +91. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as at 24.05. were down 6.3% on the previous year at 1.837 million tonnes. Purchases in Ghana are at roughly the same level as last year.

May 27 - Brazil sugar production up 55% in May; ethanol sales recover
Brazil's centre-south region produced 2.5 million tonnes of sugar in the first half of May, up 55% from a year earlier, as mills continued to favor sweetener production over ethanol. According to industry group Unica, mills allocated 47.2% of the cane to sugar production in the period, versus 36% a year earlier. But hydrous ethanol sales fell less than in April.
 

May 26 - Ivory Coast rejects report showing rising child labour in cocoa sector 

Ivory Coast said on Monday it would refuse to validate a U.S.-sponsored report due to be published next month about child labour in its cocoa sector unless the researchers and U.S. government accept changes to the methodology. The report, which is funded by the U.S. Labor Department and scheduled to be released on June 29, found the use of child labour on cocoa farms in Ivory Coast and Ghana has risen over the past decade despite industry promises to reduce it, according to a draft reviewed by Reuters. 

May 26 - More rains needed to boost Ivory Coast cocoa mid-crop - farmers
Ivory Coast's April-to-September cocoa mid-crop will need more rain to strengthen the last stage of its development after most cocoa regions had well below average rainfall last week, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is currently in its rainy season, which runs from mid-March to late October when there are meant to be regular downpours.
 
 

May 25 - Reminder : Ascension Day on Thursday, the end of Ramadan on Friday and a Bank Holiday on Monday (LDN & NY closed)

May 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Despite the bridge day and ahead of the long weekend in the USA and UK, both markets experienced strong support on Friday. In London, a weak British pound against the US dollar in particular led to a firm opening. Slight selling pressure came to an end around the 200-day moving average on the lows of GBP 1815. There was little else happening in the structure. With a total volume of just 16,000 lots, the front spread Jul/Sep20 in particular widened to +135 GBP intraday. The open interest and the agile front spread did the rest and the Sep20 increased by GBP 30 (closing GBP 1853). The net long position increased by 3,659 contracts to 98,122 lots with specs being the main contributor (+4,358 lots; 33,809 lots net long). Today both markets remain closed.

May 25 - China lets safeguard on sugar imports to expire - industry group
The Chinese government decided not to renew a safeguard on sugar imports in place since 2017, letting the measure expire on Friday, which will lead to a substantial decrease in the import tariff for sugar entering the Asian nation. According to Unica, a Brazilian sugar industry group, the decision by China's government to not renew the safeguard is the result of a negotiation between the two countries, in which Brazil canceled a request for a panel to investigate the safeguard at the World Trade Organization (WTO).

 May 25 - Raw sugar short bet on ICE futures trimmed by half, says CFTC 
Speculators reduced their net short position in raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. by almost half in the week to May 19, trimming 22,070 contracts for a total short of 23,694 contracts, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday. Raw sugar futures' prices have risen recently along with crude oil. Greater fuel demand could lead Brazilian sugar and ethanol plants to produce more of the cane-based biofuel and less of the sweetener.  

May 22 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, week 18-22 May 2020 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,036 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,719 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,933 per Mt for white pepper.  The increase of Indonesia pepper could be contributed to the strengthening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (IDR 14,831 @ USD 1). Malaysia's black and white peppers were reported stable with an average of USD 1,700 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,050 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,784 per Mt whilst Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable and unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,739 per Mt. China white pepper was also reported with a deficit, a loss of 3% were recorded when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,100 per Mt.
- International market showed similar mixed response. India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,300 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1%respectively as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,122 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,489 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable at an average of USD 2,290 per Mt, USD 2,320 per Mt and USD 3,220 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported with a 3% deficit as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,300 per Mt.

May 22 - Uganda's April Coffee Exports Rose 18% But Missed Target on Virus Disruption - DJ
  Uganda's coffee exports jumped 18% in April compared with last year, boosted by favorable weather and larger deliveries from the ongoing harvest in Africa's largest exporter of the beans, the Uganda Coffee Development Authority said Friday.
  Shipments jumped to 359,973 60-kilogram bags, compared with 305,643 bags exported in April last year. The rise in April was the fourth in a row, bringing the cumulative shipments to 2.9 million bags worth $288 million, representing a 20% jump in volume and a 19% rise in value on year.
  However, the total exports were short of the earlier projection of 400,000 bags, a factor the coffee body blamed onthe logistical disruptions due to the country's lockdown as authorities seek to halt the spread of coronavirus.
  The UCDA said Ugandan exports continue to be boosted by higher yields as younger trees enter the production phase.
  Uganda expects a bumper crop of around 5.2 million bags for the 2019-20 season, compared with 4.5 million bags last season.

 May 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Driven by selling pressure from New York, London quotations also came under pressure. With most market participants in holiday mode, only the weak local currency stopped a strong downward trend. The Sep 20 lost GBP 28 / Low GBP 1811 at times, and finally firmed slightly at the end. Closing price GBP -16 at GBP 1823 and thus above the 100 day moving average at GBP 1821, which should provide support alongside GBP 1800 (psychological barrier). New York was much weaker, closing at $ -61 at $ 2315. Arbitrage in the spot month Jul 20 gained almost GBP 50 within 2 days and is now trading at a premium LDN / NY of GBP 32.
Both markets are closed on Monday.

May 22 - Brazil coffee harvest lags as pandemic impacts fieldwork - report 
Brazilian coffee growers picked 13% of expected 2020 production by May 19, a slower pace than in the previous year and below the historical average for this time of the year, consultancy Safras & Mercado said in a report on Thursday. It said restrictions to the movement of people due to coronavirus-led lockdowns, particularly in the main robusta- producing state of Espirito Santo, caused delays in field work in that state, which impacted the overall harvest number.

May 22 - Beetle control, labor shortages top challenges for Colombia coffee - federation 
Preventing the spread of berry borer beetles and harvesting in spite of labor shortages are Colombian coffee farmers' top challenges for the remainder of 2020, the head of the country's growers' federation said. Two months of coronavirus quarantine in Colombia, the world's top producer of washed arabica beans, has complicated growers' efforts to find pickers, though farms are exempt from lockdown.

May 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Although not significant, at least in the last half hour of yesterday's day a breath of activity returned to the market. The Sep 20 marked new 4 day lows at GBP 1837 and closed close to this at GBP 1839 / GBP -17, in a GBP 25 range which was almost twice as high as in the previous days. New York was much more active and gave up the previous day's gains completely. Closing price Sep 20 $ -30 at $ 2376. All in all with thin volume. We wish you a nice holiday and if possible a long weekend. LDN & NY will be closed on Monday.

May 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday the yawning boredom continued to dominate the cocoa market. A range of GBP 15 / Sep 20 and volumes below 9,000 lots (net volume until noon not 800 lots) speaks for itself. Sep 20 ended the day with GBP +6 at GBP 1856, the Jul / Sep 20 spread firmed GBP +10, closing GBP +114. Outlook? Uncertain. Who dares the first step...Is the origin selling? Is the industry buying? Are specs returning with volume? At the moment, everything points to further consolidation, but we are happy to be surprised

May 20 - Shipping data suggests Brazil may break monthly sugar export record 
The line of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazil has more than doubled in the last week, suggesting Brazil may set a new monthly sugar export record, Plinio Nastari, the president of consultancy Datagro told Reuters. In the first two weeks of May, Brazil exported 1.57 million tonnes of sugar, already exceeding the volume shipped in the entire month of May 2019, according to government data.

May 19 - Kenya Arabica Coffee Prices Rose 66% at Auction

- Prices of arabica coffee rose 66% at an auction this week, the Nairobi Coffee Exchange said Tuesday.
  The auction price surged due to high demand for the few lower-quality grade coffee beans on offer at the tail-end of the marketing season, Daniel Mbithi, the chief executive of the Nairobi Coffee Exchange said. Last week, the auction wasn't held due to low volumes on offer.
  The auction is scheduled to close this month and reopen mid-July due to an annual break between seasons.
  The sales were held after the auction resumed online mid-April following a halt on April 2 due to coronavirus restrictions. Prices at the auction are partly relatively lower due to most dealers still familiarizing themselves with the new trading platform, according to Mr. Mbithi.
  The average price across all grades at the auction was $182.15 for a 50-kilogram bag compared with $109.58 a bag at the previous auction on May 5, the auction house said. A total of 12,399 bags were offered at this week's auction compared with 9,964 bags at the prior auction.

May 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It seems that the cocoa market can only live in extremes...Massive volatility in flat price and structure or (as yesterday) yawning boredom. Caught in a GBP 13 range it was a week's start to fall asleep and the second "Inside Day" in a row. The Sep 20 traded around the 100 day moving average at GBP 1853 and ended the day at GBP -8 at GBP 1850, at an alarmingly low volume. The Bloomberg Commodity Index gained 4% yesterday, driven by firm oil and gasoline prices. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as of 17.05 were 1.814 mn versus 1.925 mn last season (-5.8%). Ascension Day on Thursday, the end of Ramadan on Friday and a Bank Holiday on Monday (LDN & NY closed) give little reason to hope for activity BUT the cocoa market is always good for surprises.

May 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After a volatile start to the week, due to the expiry of the May 20 position, the market consolidated at current levels on Friday as well. At the beginning of the day, a weak British pound led to a slight fix to the highs of GBP 1867, but the rest of the day the Sep 20 traded in a GBP 12 range. Closing price Sep 20 GBP +9 at GBP 1858. The Commitment of Traders figures as of 12.05.20 also bring no new information with a change of +1,049 lots net. Both markets now hold a combined net long position of 94,463.

May 18 - Speculators trim short position in raw sugar, raise long in coffee
Speculators reduced their net short position in raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. for the second consecutive week, trimming 8,996 contracts in the week to May 12 for a total short of 45,763 contracts, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday. They raised their net long position in arabica coffee futures on ICE by 1,644 contracts to hold a net long position of 5,283 contracts by May 12.
 
 

May 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With a slightly weakening British pound, the volatile trading of recent months since the beginning of the crisis continued. After a firm opening and resulting hedge pressure initially put pressure on the market, support was found in the 100-day moving average (GBP 1890 basis Jul20). The opening in gave a further boost, almost equalizing Tuesday's losses. Jul20 added GBP 48 and closed at GBP 1970, but the structural behaviour remains opaque. While front spreads converged on Tuesday, the opposite was the case yesterday. The Jul/Sep20 was again trading triple digits at GBP +112 (+20). There is no clear trend in the structure, but the absolute level is on balance moving further north. The weak GBP and the significantly higher turnover in NY against London is pushing arbitrage further apart after a long period of time.

May 15 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 11-15 May 2020 (IPC)
- As the outbreak of Corona Virus affected 213 countries and territories around the world, pepper business in Viet Nam as of 1st quarterly 2020 was reported with a 12% increase when compared to the same period in 2019, especially exporters with pepper processors or ground pepper business. Furthermore, as of March 2020, some exporters were reported to have increased their pepper shipments such as Tin Mai (an increase of 88% as compared to the same period in 2019), DK Commodity Viet Nam (an increase of 26%), Olam Viet Nam (an increase of 14%), Phuc Sinh (an increase of 13%) and Nedspice Viet Nam (an increase of 11%). The increase of pepper shipment could be contributed to the decrease of Viet Nam's pepper price in the 1st quarterly of 2020 as compared to the same period in 2019 (a decrease by 9% as compare to the same period) and also might be contributed to the increase of pepper consumption due to the benefit of pepper which widely acclaimed for its ability to boost the immune system.
- Market this week showed a rather positive outlook. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 4,082 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,708 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,913 per Mt for white pepper. The increase of Indonesia pepper could be contributed to the strengthening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (IDR 14,931 @ USD 1). Malaysia's black and white peppers were reported stable with an average of USD 1,706 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,060 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 4% and 5% respectively as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,746 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,643 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous weekand was traded at an average of USD 2,753 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 4,233 per Mt.
- International market showed a similar positive outlook. India black pepper was reported with the same stable at an average of USD 4,347 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,108 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,466 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 4%, 4% and 3% respectively as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,280 per Mt, USD 2,310 per Mt and USD 3,210 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reportedsteady averaging at USD 4,433 per Mt.

May 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The gains of the past days were wiped out yesterday afternoon at the latest. Though the market initially gained after a firm opening, the generally overbought market, hedge pressure against new origin cover and the rolling of long positions before today's expiry of the May20 contract put the prices under considerable pressure. The Jul20 temporarily dropped below the 1900 level and found support around GBP 1892, but with a daily range of GBP 99, the highest since July 2019, the Jul20 contract ended up closing well above the lows at GBP 1922 (GBP -59). The gradings of the last few days suggest increasing stock market holdings, which gave spread sellers a tailwind, and so the spreads narrowed again. The Jul/Sep20 to +92; an impressive 5,500 lots were traded here. Sep/Dec20 narrowed to GBP +96.

May 13 - Brazil sugar production jumps 93% as ethanol sales plunge - industry group
Brazilian mills in the center-south region produced 2.01 million tonnes of sugar in the second half of April, 93% more than in the same period a year earlier, as ethanol sales plunged in the local market, industry group Unica said on Tuesday. Unica said sales of hydrous ethanol, the type that competes with gasoline at pumps, sank 38% in April as lockdowns hurt demand, driving mills away from the biofuel's production and towards maximum possible sugar making.

May 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The day after the long weekend for London, it seemed that the market had some catching up to do. After a firm opening, resistance around GBP 1950 was quickly broken, which activated technical buying. With the opening of NY, buy orders from the funds were triggered. On net terms, the market closed with an average gain of 2.3% just before tomorrow's expiry of the May20 contract, the Jul20 gained GBP 45 to GBP 1981, taking us less than GBP100 away from pre-Corona levels in February. The focus was again on structure. Jul/Sep20 diverged to GBP+119, Sep/Dec20 to GBP+112, and in the meantime some cocoa stocks were re-graded - 1 BDU Ivory, 3 BDU + 54 SDU Nigeria and one BDU Cameroon re-grade.

May 12 - Ivory Coast weather threatens to shorten cocoa mid-crop
Persisting below-average rains in most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa growing regions last week was threatening the April-to-September mid-crop, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is in the rainy season, which runs from mid-March to late October when downpours are usually regular and abundant.
 

May 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Without the participation of the London market, the New York market steadily moved towards consolidation at levels around $ 2400, mainly due to the weakness of the US$, caused by a dramatic increase in the unemployment rate in the USA to 14.7%. Closing price July 20 NY $ +19 at $ 2400.
Commitment of Traders as of 05.05 show a small reduction of the net long position by 1,022 lots to 93,414 lots. Within Managed Money the long position was increased by 5,821 lots. In London alone, "Money" liquidated a good 3,300 lots of its speculative gross short position.

May 11 - Arabica coffee growers see harvest delays, possible losses due to coronavirus
South American coffee growers may delay harvest this year and limit the number of workers they employ as the novel coronavirus pandemic continues to spread, threatening to reduce this year's crop of export-quality beans. The pandemic has killed more than 250,000 people and upended food production worldwide. Meat processing plants where outbreaks have occurred are closed; truckers have curtailed deliveries for fear of infection, and farmers are destroying crops that they cannot get to consumers.
 
 

May 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Mainly due to currency effects, July 20 made a leisurely journey to the highs of 29 April (GBP 1948), only narrowly missing them with yesterday's high of GBP 1946. Very slight hedging pressure then set in from the origin, July 20 ended the day at GBP +26 at GBP 1936, the highest closing price since the beginning of March. Volume was more than thin, the July / Sep 20 spread reached a new high at GBP +106. Second month arbitrage now shows LDN with a small premium of GBP +7 vs NY. Just a week before the Last Trading Day of the May 20 date, activity in the grading room continued to increase. Under the knife were 764 lots (including 3 BDUS fresh IVC and 3 BDUS fresh Nigeria), all of which were accepted. 5 more BDUS (origin not yet known) are in the pipeline. London will be closed today (VE Day).

May 08 - Int'l Weekly Pepper Market Report, Week 4-8 May 2020 (IPC)
- Market this week showed a rather positive outlook as only India and China origin were reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,098 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 4% and 2% respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,691 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,885 per Mt for white pepper. The increase of Indonesia pepper could be contributed to the strengthening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (IDR 15,078 @ USD 1). Malaysia's black and white peppers were also reported with an increase of 1% respectively when compared to the previous week with an average of USD 1,714 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,075 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 2% and 3% respectively as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,674 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,516 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,723 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with a slight 1% deficit as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,250 per Mt.
- International market showed a similar positive outlook as only India and China origin were reported with a decrease. India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,360 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 4% and 2% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,087 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,432 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 3%, 3% and 2% respectively as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,200 per Mt, USD 2,230 per Mt and USD 3,130 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,450 per Mt.

May 08 - India sugar exports boosted by strong demand from Indonesia, Iran 
Sugar exports from India have gained momentum due to strong demand from Indonesia and Iran as the rupee slid to a record low, increasing exporters' margins from overseas sales, five industry officials told Reuters. Higher exports from India, the world's biggest producer of sugar, could put pressure on global prices and limit shipments from rivals such as Brazil and Thailand. 

May 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday the consolidation around GBP 1900 continued. Slight hedging pressure on yesterday's highs (GBP 1916) prevented, once again, new weekly highs. July 20 ended the day with GBP +6 at GBP 1910. New York lost $50 at times, but ended the day only marginally lower at $ -15 at $ 2363 / July 20. All in all, not very inspiring. London will remain closed tomorrow, can we expect more action today before the long weekend ?
An article by Bloomberg warned against weakening payments and that the positive figures (Q1) do not correspond to real consumption. It's not rocket science...But the question of all questions was not answered: With all these bearish factors, why is the market where it is right now ?

May 07 - Global coffee supply balance seen shifting to surplus - broker 
The global coffee supply balance is seen shifting from a deficit in the 2019-20 season to a surplus in 2020-21 as expected changes in people's behavior related to social distancing is seen hurting demand, commodity broker Marex Spectron said on Wednesday. Marex expects the global balance to shift from a projected deficit of 4.3 million 60-kg bags in the current season to a surplus of 2 million bags in the 2020-21 season (October-September).
 

May 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

In a narrow range (GBP 23), the second month consolidated around GBP 1900 yesterday (closing GBP 1904 Jul 20, GBP -5). Just a week before the expiry of May 20, the first month was the most agile, before its open interest dropped by 10,000 lots to 6,673 lots. Overall, the market is maintaining its inverse structure, although yesterday again at low volumes. Nevertheless, the structure is stable, despite various reports from the origin. As expected, the first resistance to the arrest warrant of presidential candidate Soro (currently in exile) is stirring in Côte d'Ivoire, 19 men are said to have planned a coup and have been arrested. Furthermore, the prime minister is apparently tending to heart problems and is currently in France for examinations. Ghana is also experiencing lower purchases of the coming crop (698tmt vs 705tmt last year).

May 06 - ICO sees global coffee market flipping into surplus in 2019/20 due to COVID-19 
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) sees the global coffee market flipping into a 1.95 million 60kg bag surplus in the 2019/20 season due to the impact of coronavirus lockdowns, having previously forecast a 474,000 bag deficit. "Many countries have suspended non-essential activities, which have negatively impacted out-of-home coffee consumption," said the ICO in a monthly report on Tuesday.

  May 06 - Brazil's 2020-21 sugar production seen growing 18.5% - government 
Brazil is expected to produce 35.3 million tonnes of sugar in the 2020-21 season (April-March), 18.5% more than in the previous crop, as mills allocate more cane to make sugar and less to produce biofuel ethanol. According to a new projection released on Tuesday by Conab, Brazil's agricultural statistics agency, the total cane crop is seen at 630.7 million tonnes, 1.9% less than in the previous season. Ethanol production was estimated at 32 billion liters, 10.3% lower.

May 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

 It was a mixed start into the short week (LDN will be closed next Friday). At the unofficial opening in the morning NY lost over $ 60 within minutes. London found initial support around the 100 day moving average at GBP 1878 and steadily firmed, finding its highs at GBP 1919. Closing July 20 GBP +24 at GBP 1909. Arbitrage trading also saw New York recover, ending July 20 at $ -15 at $ 2387. Volume in London looked better at first glance due to rolling positions and financing transactions (over 15k lots). A look at the almost unchanged positions in 2021 and the turnover there paints a different picture. With less than 8 months of cover, should price hedging concentrate on 2021 after all? No chance! Concerns about consumption and the global economy have condemned market participants to wait.

May 05 - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers fear low output after below-average rainfall 
Below-average rainfall in Ivory Coast last week has raised fears of a cocoa supply shortage in the coming months and a weak end to the April-to-September mid-crop, farmers said on Monday. The world’s top cocoa producer relies on regular downpours during the rainy season from mid-March to late October. However, farmers said that a lack of rain could hamper crop development in August and September.
 
 

May 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With most European market participants in holiday mode, volatility returned to the markets in full swing. July 20 traded in a range of GBP 1884/1922 and ended the day weakly at GBP -37 at GBP 1885, the main trigger being, not surprisingly, the highly volatile structure. The May / July 20 spread lost over GBP 20 (closing GBP +89), while the July / Sept 20 spread lost over GBP 30 and seems to be attracting relatively high interest from specs / funds. Commitment of Traders as of 28.04. show a slight increase of the net long position from 3,667 lots to 94,436 lots net long. Interesting: London increased over 5.000 lots in the last reporting period, while New York reduced almost 2.000 lots. We see the next stronger support in July 20 around GBP 1845 (100 days moving average).

May 04 - May raw sugar delivery a record near 2.26 mln T, all from Brazil - ICE 
The physical delivery against the May raw sugar contract on ICE Futures U.S. totaled 44,449 lots, or about 2.26 million tonnes, a record amount for any contract month, exchange data showed on Friday. The numbers were in line with traders' expectations published by Reuters on Thursday. Market operators are split in their evaluations whether the giant delivery is bearish or bullish for sugar prices.

 May 04 - Mexico says U.S. to maintain trade terms over sugar 
Mexico's government on Saturday said the U.S. Commerce Department had published a notification of its intention to keep an agreement regulating Mexican sugar exports into the United States active for another five years. The United States in 2014 imposed hefty duties on imports of Mexican sugar after determining the country's sugar firms were dumping cheap, subsidized sugar into the U.S. market. 

 May 04 - Speculators boost short position in raw sugar to nearly 76,000 contracts 
Speculators added 15,834 contracts to their sugar short bet on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to April 28, taking the total net short to 75,897 contracts, as weak energy prices are seen driving a sharp increase in the global supply of the sweetener. The raw sugar market has been hammered by falling energy prices, since analysts believe cane mills in Brazil will shift a large part of their processing toward sugar production, cutting ethanol volumes to avoid depressed demand and prices for the biofuel.
  

May 01 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 27 April-1 May 2020 (IPC)
- Market this week showed a rather positive outlook as only India origin was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,121 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,622 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,823 per Mt for white pepper. The slight increase of Indonesia pepper could be contributed to the strengthening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (IDR 15,413 @ USD 1). Malaysia's black and white peppers were also reported with an increase of 1% respectively when compared to the previous week with an average of USD 1,701 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,052 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,649 per Mt whilst Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable and unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 3% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,680 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable and unchanged.
- International market also showed a rather positive outlook as only India origin was reported with a decrease. India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,385 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,005 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,358 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged. China white pepper was reported steady and also unchanged.
Trade activity in US market this week was reported with moving slow due to the pandemic of corona virus with a wishful prospect the next month business will recommence though grinder/trading house stock limited.

May 01 - Brazil's Raizen plans higher sugar output on weakened real - CEO 
Brazilian sugar and ethanol giant Raizen SA plans to increase the amount of cane used for sugar by more than 10% as a weak Brazilian currency gives it a competitive edge over rivals in India, Thailand and Australia, the company's chief executive said. One month after taking the job, CEO Ricardo Mussa told Reuters in an interview that Raizen expects a "very productive" 2020/21 cane harvest despite the risks of the coronavirus epidemic.

Apr 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday, the nearby contracts had clear support from options trading. Today's last trading day of May options in London was responsible for massive future volume (29k lots May 20). The indicator for the nervousness is the "implied volatility" of the options, which rose to over 70%, an unprecedented value. Speculative buying tested the highs (GBP 1922 May 20) on several occasions and eventually broke through to +GBP 48, but hedge sales against cover from the origin put pressure on the market. The May 20 closed at GBP 1925 (+25). The market may calm down again after today's expiration of May options trading. However, surprising (though as usually unofficial) news from Côte d'Ivoire suggest plans for a new, additional premium in addition to origin differentials and LID. Combined with general uncertainty, this will probably depress forward cover.

Apr 30 - Brazil's center-south sugar production rises 178% in April, says group
The production of sugar in Brazil's center-south region increased by 178% in the first half of April year-on-year, as mills put all their effort into making as much sugar as possible and escape a dreadful ethanol market. According to data from sugar industry group Unica on Wednesday, mills produced 948,000 tonnes of the sweetener in the first half of April compared with 340,000 tonnes at this time last year.

 
Apr 30 - Mexican farmers give away tomatoes as demand squashed by coronavirus 
Mexican tomato farmers are so hard pressed to sell their product at home or abroad due to the disruptions caused by the coronavirus outbreak that they have had to donate some of their produce to food banks or use it to feed cattle. Demand for tomatoes from Sinaloa, Mexico's top tomato-producing state, dropped by 40% in some areas among growers that supply businesses ranging from hotels to fast food chains including Subway and McDonald's, farmers said.
 

Apr 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The slightly weaker opening soon found support, again at the 50-day average. During the day, Jul 20 traded in a GBP 53 range, reaching its highest level in seven weeks before closing at GBP 8, up GBP 1900. In the afternoon, it became known that the Ivorian presidential candidate and ex-rebel leader Guillaume Soro was sentenced in absentia to 20 years in prison. Soro is currently abroad to escape charges against him in Côte d'Ivoire for an alleged coup attempt in autumn 2019. Interestingly, just last week the African Court of Human Rights had demanded that he be acquitted of all charges against him. In view of the elections in October, the Ivorian verdict is more likely to fuel the chances of political turmoil in the country. Mr Soro will certainly not simply accept this. Point for the bulls...

Apr 29 - Coronavirus brews trouble for tea, disrupts supply as demand spikes 
The coronavirus outbreak is causing a rare stir in the usually staid global tea market, with labour lockdowns stifling supplies just as millions in lockdown drive up demand for the beverage known for its immunity-boosting properties. Five countries - China, India, Kenya, Sri Lanka and Vietnam - account for 82% of global tea exports, but strict restrictions on movement to contain the coronavirus pandemic have already disrupted the key leaf-picking season, delayed some shipments by about a month and triggered a spike in prices. 

Apr 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After some European countries, including Great Britain, ease their pandemic restrictions, the US$ loses ground against the British pound. Arbitrage is growing, and in the second month it is increasing its premium to GBP 18, as yesterday's quotations again showed weak volume with almost sideways movement during the day. A short test of the highs around GBP 1900 Jul20 was soon caught and support was once again found at the 50-day moving average. The Jul20 closed almost unchanged (GBP 1892; +3). Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire are reported at 1,734 mmt (-5% YoY); Ghana announces purchases of approx. 695 tmt vs. 705 tmt in the previous year as of 9.4.20. The ICE stocks have fallen to a level last seen in spring 2015. This basically increases the volatility of the front London quotations and supports the inverse structure.

Apr 28 - Brazil sugar output seen at record 41 mln T in new season - consultancy 
Brazil is expected to produce a record amount of sugar in the current season, at 41 million tonnes versus 29.6 million tonnes previously, which will take the country back to the number 1 spot among the world's largest producers, surpassing India.  According to a study from Sao Paulo-based sugar and ethanol consultancy Job Economia released on Monday, Brazilian sugar exports could grow to 29.8 million tonnes in 2020-21 (April-March) from 19.44 million tonnes in the previous cycle. 

 
 Apr 28 -
Ivory Coast cocoa farmers fret over lack of rain 

Well below average rainfall last week in most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa regions has reduced expectations of a healthy mid-crop marketed from April to September, farmers said on Monday. The world’s top cocoa producer is entering the rainy season, when there should be regular downpours from mid-March to late October. 

Apr 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The second month of July20 traded in a GBP 35 range on Friday, and ended virtually unchanged at GBP 1889 (GBP -3). Coupled with a slightly more volatile GBP against the euro, the industry used this to gradually increase its cover. On balance, the inverse structure increased significantly last week despite minimal volumes. While the July 20 gained over 2.8%, the forwards remained largely unchanged. The Jul 20/21 spread traded at a premium of GBP 235, the front spread May/Jul 20 stabilised at around GBP 100. The solid performance in London was also due to arbitrage, with the second month trading at a premium over NY (GBP +5). The net long position increased minimally by +1747 lots to 90,769 lots; the Managed Money buyers kept its long position on balance at 13,226 lots, largely unchanged.

Apr 27 - Uganda March Coffee Exports Jump 39% on Year - WSJ

Uganda's coffee exports jumped 39% in March compared with the corresponding month last year, boosted by improved prices and larger deliveries from the continuing harvest in Africa's largest exporter of the beans, the Uganda Coffee Development Authority said Monday. Shipments jumped to 477,561 60-kilogram bags, compared with 345,085 bags exported in March last year, the state coffee body said in a report. The rise in March was the third in a row, bringing the cumulative shipments to 2.6 million bags worth $251 million, representing an 21% jump in volume and some 18% rise in value on year.
  "The increase in exports has been attributed to the increased production on account of fruition of the newly planted coffee," UCDA said. "Exporters also drew down on their stocks in the midst of the lockdown due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Exports are yet to be affected by the virus."
  Uganda, which grows mainly the bitter tasting robusta coffee variety used in blends and instant drinks, exports nearly all of its bean-form coffee output to U.S. and European Union markets.
  Uganda expects a bumper crop of around 5.2 million bags for the 2019-20 season, compared with 4.5 million bags last season.

Apr 27 - Speculators boost net short position in raw sugar 
Speculators added 16,912 contracts to their sugar short bet on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to April 21, taking the total net short to 60,063 contracts, as collapsing energy prices increases global supply of the sweetener. According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report on Friday, speculators also slightly raised their net long position in arabica coffee futures by 260 contracts to 10,079 during that period.
 
 

Apr 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The solid performance of the previous day was followed by consolidation at current levels. July 20 failed to mark new 6 week highs and found good resistance around the GBP 1900 level (high yesterday GBP 1904). The closing prices across the board offered an unusual picture. July 20 GBP -8 at GBP 192, Sep 20 GBP +10 at GBP 1815...The 2021 dates continued to close slightly negative. Also an unusual picture in spreads, May / July 20 firmer at GBP +103 (as well as Sep / Dec 20 at GBP +99), while July / Sep 20 converged around GBP 14 to a premium of GBP +78. These circumstances do not make it easier to draw a clear picture. Côte d'Ivoire plans to provide a fund of US$16.7 million to keep local processing competitive with international competitors. We wish you a nice weekend

Apr 24 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 20-24 April 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed a mixed response with Sri Lanka origin was reported with the highest decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 4,155 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% and 2% respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,604 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,791 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia's black and white peppers were reported with 1% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week with an average of USD 1,690 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,032 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 2% respectively when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 1,628 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,431 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with 5% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,592 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable and was traded at an average of USD 4,275 per Mt locally.
- International market showed a rather positive outlook as Indonesia and Viet Nam origin were reported with an increase. India black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,416 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% and 2% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,983 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,320per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 2%, 2% and 1% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,130 per Mt, USD 2,160 per Mt and USD 3,060 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported steady and was traded at an average of USD 4,475 per Mt internationally.

Apr 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After an unchanged opening and caught in a range between GBP 1840 / GBP 1855, there was a significant fortification of the market in the late afternoon. July 20 temporarily laid GBP 65, broke through all technical resistance and traded on highs of GBP 1907. Closing price GBP +58 at GBP 1900. May 20 tested and broke through the GBP 2000 mark and ended the day at GPB +85 at GBP 1999. The near May / July 20 spread widened to GBP +100, July / Sep 20 to GBP +96 and May / Dec 20 approached the GBP 300 mark with GBP +286 in the high. It seems that the current speculative activity (fundamental news played in the background) is focusing on the structure. If the leading dates increased significantly, the 2021 dates were much more inactive with a fortification between GBP +11 / +14. Should the origin become active soon, the hedge pressure could make the structure run even more inversely and attract new longs...At the moment, however, only guessing. New York was only a co-driver yesterday, arbitrage weakened significantly by GBP 20 and is now at GBP -25 in July.

Apr 23 - Thailand's 2019/20 cane output hits 10-year low as drought bites
Thailand's cane output in the 2019/20 season was the lowest in a decade, as prolonged drought undermined yield, a Thai cane and sugar agency said on Wednesday. Thailand, the world's second-largest sugar exporter after Brazil, crushed 74.89 million tonnes of sugarcane in the season that ended earlier this month, producing only 8.27 million tonnes of the sweetener. 

Apr 23 - Ivory Coast to boost local cocoa-grinding with $16.7 mln fund
Ivory Coast will create a cocoa-processing fund worth 10 billion CFA francs ($16.7 million) to help domestic grinders compete against long-dominant international players, the government spokesman said on Wednesday. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa-grower, produced about 2.2 million tonnes of cocoa last year, but processed only around 547,000 tonnes of beans in the October-September season.
 
 

Apr 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Grinding figures Q1 2020: ECA +0.88%; Germany -1.9%; Total +0.64%
A weak British pound yesterday led to a breakout from the old familiar range, at least in the short term. Driven by NY, July 20 LDN rose to new 6 week highs from GBP 1864, and at these levels, there was a further small reduction in the long. July 20 ended the day with GBP +8 at GBP 1842, still below GBP 1850, which is currently putting a cap on the market. NY July 20 was weaker, ending the day at $-40 at $ 2318. Origin activity is trending towards 0, the question is when and at what levels will pre-sales resume? This fact, coupled with lower volumes, is causing some participants to enter the market much weaker. One thing is certain...the industry will certainly not give up its comfortable cover without a fight. Grinding figures for Europe are slightly above expectations, expected was unchanged to approx. -3%.

Apr 22 - Hailstorm devastates hundreds of hectares of Bordeaux vines in SW France
A violent hailstorm that hit the Bordeaux wine region last Friday has caused severe damage, with several hundred hectares of vines nearly destroyed, notably in the famous Saint-Emilion region, the local chamber of agriculture said on Tuesday. This comes at a time when French wine makers are already suffering from a slowdown in consumption due to the closure of restaurants and bars worldwide in a bid to contain the new coronavirus, as well as from lower exports caused by extra U.S. tariffs on French wine since late last year.
 
 

Apr 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the firm movement on Friday, yesterday saw consolidation in the markets. July 20 tested the 200 day moving average at GBP 1843 and also marked its high yesterday. Closing price July 20 GBP -4 at GBP 1834. New York was at times a little more susceptible to the macroeconomic environment and the sharp fall in the price of crude oil (21-year low) and at times lost over $50. Closing price July 20 NY $-10 at $2358. Ivory Coast reported arrivals of 1.711 million tonnes vs. 1.787 million tonnes / -4.3% as at 19.04. Ghana reduced its expectations by 20k mt to 780k mt for the current crop. Tomorrow, the European and German grinding figures for Q1 will be published before trading starts. A range of unchanged to -3% is expected and a significant impact of the current crisis is not expected.

Apr 21 - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers hope for downpours as rains slow
Rainfall in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa regions was mainly below average last week, prompting farmers on Monday to warn of the need for heavier showers as harvesting intensifies. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is entering the rainy season, which runs from mid-March to late October when there should be regular downpours.

Apr 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With a bang the cocoa market said goodbye to a rather inactive / boring week after Easter. After opening NY, the market quickly jumped to new highs of GBP 1840, ending the day at GBP +61 at GBP 1838. NY was clearly the driver with a firmer close of $ 2369 / $+110. Trigger? Slight buying interest from the industry? The not "as bad as perhaps expected grinding numbers (NCA -5%, Asia -0.5)? A firm July / Sep 20 spread (new high with GBP +64)? Surely a mix of all of these factors, coupled with more than thin volumes (we have often pointed out this danger before) is making the market play "ping-pong". Despite everything, we are still in the GBP 1850 / 1750 range, which has been holding steady since mid-March. Commitment of Traders as of 14.04. shows a small reduction of the net long position of -3904 lots (LDN -550/NY -3354). Total: +89,035 Net Long.

Apr 20 - Sugar short bet grows by nearly 11,000 contracts in the U.S.
Speculators added almost 11,000 contracts to their sugar short bet on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to April 14, taking the total net short to 43,151 contracts, as collapsing energy prices increase global supply of the sweetener. According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report on Friday, 10,921 contracts were added to the raw sugar short bet. 

Apr 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday, the market initially gained around GBP +20, but the volume was shallow. Speculative selling, which soon began, put pressure on the market. However, the support at GBP1750 Jul 20 continued to withstand another test. New York brought further support as open interest there has been growing for the first time in almost two weeks. The Jul 20 closed 27 points higher at GBP 1777, and the British Pound was stable despite the recent three-week extension of the lockdown there. As expected, the U.S. grind figutes were negative, with the first quarter down -5.1% year-on-year (115,591 Q1/20mts vs. 121,801mts Q1/19). Meanwhile, a major international grinder published its half-year figures and a 5.8% increase in revenues, which may give reason for some optimism.

Apr 17 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market report, Week 13-17 April 2020 (IPC)
- Market this week showed a positive response with Indonesia origin reported with the highest increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 4,159 per Mt. Following the strengthening of the Indonesian rupiah against US Dollar by 4% as compared to last week's average, Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 8% and 4% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 1,591 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,737 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia's black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 1,594 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,381 per Mt for white pepper. As a result of the strengthening of Sri Lankan Rupee against US Dollar, Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 3% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,732 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with a slight increase of 1% and was traded at an average of USD 4,263 per Mt locally.
- International market also showed a positive outlook as only India and Malaysia origin were reported stable. India black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,421 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 8% and 4% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,967 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,258 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 2%, 2% and 1% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,090 per Mt, USD 2,120 per Mt and USD 3,020 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as opposed to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 4,463 per Mt internationally.

Apr 17 - Ethanol demand slump puts Brazil sugar industry in a grind 
Brazilian sugar and ethanol companies are going into survival mode, cutting back harvest operations and tapping into credit lines to weather the slump in fuel demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Government restrictions on movement and businesses to stem the spread of the virus have undercut global demand.

Apr 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A 100 point weakening of the British pound against the US-dollar again put pressure on the market yesterday, but with less than 1000 lots sold by midday, there was little sign of volume. July20 tested the support around GBP 1745, but closed slightly stronger at GBP 1750 (GBP -17). The May/Jul20 spread was remarkably volatile despite the low volume (GBP 20-50 premium) and eventually closed around another GBP 20, while the rest remained stable. The Malaysian grinding figures contributed to the overall picture with -6.1% Q1/20, while Brazil had reported +6.55% on Monday. Today and in the coming days, we expect the figures from US, Asia and next week the ECA.

Apr 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

New York had delivered on Good Friday, and the pound sterling remained firm, probably due to reports of first positive effects of the UK lockdown. The combination of the two put pressure on the market and prices declined around GBP 20 after opening. For most of the day, quotes traded in a GBP 15 range towards the next technical support (GBP 1745). July20 closed at GBP 1767 (GBP -35). Although the structure remains inverted (May/May traded at GBP 167), it is still flat in the forwards. The specs have largely liquidated their position, and building a speculative short position would be unusual. After around -GBP 300 within 2 months, a reversal of the trend would at least be more likely: Despite a weak economic outlook, bullish factors such as the LID, elections in origin and possible risks in the original supply remain.

Apr 15 - Brazil sugar production up 42% as season kicks off, ethanol sales down 
Brazilian mills in the major center-south region produced 198,000 tonnes of sugar in the second half of March, 42% more than in the same period a year earlier, as companies shift cane allocation to the sweetener amid a collapse of the ethanol market. According to a biweekly report by industry group Unica released on Tuesday, mills in the region allocated 27.5% of the cane to produce sugar in the period, compared to 20.5% at this time last year. Sales of hydrous ethanol late in March fell 20.8%.

 Apr 15 - Philippines' farm minister fears sugar price spike as coronavirus shuts mills 
The shutdown of two of the Philippines' major sugar mills due to coronavirus-containment measures could lead to a domestic shortage and trigger price spikes, the country's farm minister said on Wednesday. Agriculture Secretary William Dar appealed to Bukidnon Governor Jose Maria Zubiri Jr., who placed the southern province under total lockdown from April 13 to April 26 after it recorded its first coronavirus case, to minimize any economic impacts.

 Apr 15 - Ivory Coast weather boosts cocoa mid-crop - farmers 
Plentiful rainfall and sunshine in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa regions last week should boost the volume and quality of the April-to-September mid-crop, farmers said on Tuesday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is entering the rainy season, which runs from mid-March to late October when there are regular downpours.

Apr 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Without the involvement of the London market, no significant highlights were visible in New York either. Further May20 liquidation in light of First Notice Day in NY on Friday essentially shaped the day there, NY lost $ -61 basis Jul20 (closing at $2311). May/May arbitrage recorded a discount NY < London for the first time in a long time, although hardly anyone is likely to trade it any more. Another reason for the weak performance is probably the alarming new US unemployment figures. As of Tuesday last week, managed money traders reduced their long position by -8,150 lots to a net 17k lots. The total net long position now totals 92,939 lots. In London, open interest is still focusing on the Dec20: Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire are said to have pre-sold just 1.0m tonnes of the new crop, 30-40% less than in previous years...  

Apr 14 - Brazil aims to announce help for ethanol sector this week - minister 
Brazil plans to announce this week measures to support its ethanol sector, which has been battered by falling demand and a sharp drop in gasoline prices due to turmoil in oil markets, Agriculture Minister Tereza Cristina Dias said on Monday. Dias said Brazil was finalizing measures that may include a rise in the Cide tax on gasoline and the withdrawal of the Pis/Cofins levy on ethanol for an unspecified period of time.

 Apr 13 - Caffeinated conservation: Colombian farmers switch coca for coffee to protect wildlife 
In a clearing around his modest smallholding, farmer Arcadio Barajas stands before a sea of coffee plants, cloaked in the shadow cast by a wall of verdant forest that covers the San Lucas mountains of northern Colombia.  The San Lucas range is one of the most unexplored places in this South American nation, which is the world's second most biodiverse country after neighboring Brazil. From its towering Andean peaks to its tropical islands and dense Amazon rainforest, Colombia is home to over 50,000 recorded species of animals and plants.

 Apr 10 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 6-10 April 2020 (IPC)
- As the total death from COVID-19 outbreak nearly reached 100,000 people, many countries enforced more rigorous measures in trying to lessen the spread of the Virus. Indonesia reportedly implemented a large-scale social restriction in their capital city which would last for the next two weeks, as market this week showed a mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,177 per Mt. The decrease of Malabar black pepper price could be contributed to the weakening of Indian Rupee against US Dollar. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with a slight increase by 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 1,467 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,628 per Mt for white pepper. The increase of Indonesia black and white pepper price could be contributed to the slight strengthening of Indonesia Rupiah against US Dollar. Malaysia's black and white pepper were reported stable averaging at USD 1,705 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,059 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported stable and unchanged whilst Viet Nam white pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,347 per Mt. Following the significant weakening of Sri Lankan Rupee against US Dollar, Sri Lanka black pepper was traded with a 4% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,660 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% and was traded at an average of USD 4,239 per Mt locally.
- In contrary, international market showed a rather positively outlook with only India origin recorded a deficit. India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,440 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,819 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,129 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, contrary to local price, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 4%, 3% and 2% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,050 per Mt, USD 2,080 per Mt and USD 2,980 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as opposed to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 4,439 per Mt internationally.

Apr 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It was the second day in a row that the market gave us a little rest, at least in the daily range. We suspect it is the calm before the next storm or a recovery before the high volatility returns to the market. Why? The specs / funds are mostly out, the volume (in London just 13 k lots) more than small...meaning the liquidity is missing in the market. The May / July 20 spread traded at a low of GBP +31 and in a range of a proud GBP 27. July 20 tested the GBP 1850, forming a double-top to GBP 1848 and corrected slightly in the afternoon (currency related). Closing price GBP -11 at GBP 1835. On the upside, GBP 1850 seems to continue to provide good resistance, while on the downside, levels around GBP 1740 might provide some initial strong support in the form of industrial buying interest. Happy Easter and stay healthy.

Apr 09 - Mexico avocado production to continue uninterrupted despite coronavirus
U.S. consumers, the primary market for Mexico's $3 billion avocado export business, will have uninterrupted access to the coveted crop as growers continue to work despite the coronavirus. Unlike the beer industry, which reduced operations to a minimum after the Mexican government declared a health emergency, the avocado farmers do not plan to slow down.

 Apr 09 - Indian white sugar exports at near standstill as lockdown bites
India's white sugar shipments have been brought to a near standstill by the coronavirus lockdown, depriving the global market of key supplies after a poor harvest in Asia's top exporter Thailand. Most of India's private ports have declared force majeure and while government ports are operating, they face labour shortages as Indians have been ordered to stay home and avoid spreading the coronavirus under a 21-day lockdown. 

Apr 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Although with less momentum, the upward movement continued yesterday. Again, the decisive factor was the near May 7 July 20 spread, which traded at GBP +74 in the high and pulled the remaining months upwards. July 20 peaked at GBP 1848, closing at GBP +12 at GBP 1846, and the market should find good resistance at GBP 1859 (200-day moving average 2nd month continuation), as well as in the direction of GBP 1880. Volume was again low and the market will remain volatile. The industry is in a waiting position to continue to support the market during the next small downward correction. This is especially true for 2021...Here the tenor seems to be that the level around GBP 1680 is below the average of recent years and should be used. The uncertainty about consumption and the global development of the pandemic finally prevails. Côte d'Ivoire reports a 5.6% increase in grinding in Q1. Furthermore, 320 corona cases, 41 cured and 3 deaths were officially reported. However, West Africa is also a good month behind us in the current development.

Apr 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Despite a clearly volatile opening, the trading day yesterday was quiet for most of the time. New York and its break through the US$2300 mark was the main reason for the afternoon's firmer performance and new 16-day high of GBP 1831. As mentioned above, July 20 in LDN was trading at new highs and in a GBP 67 range, but it is worth noting that there was much less volume than in previous weeks. July 20 ended the day with a proud GBP +59 at GBP 1830 and New York US$ +88 at US$ 2348. The main reasons for yesterday's movement were certainly the breakout from the New York bandwidth, which has been maintained for almost 2 weeks, the short position of managed money funds in NY mentioned yesterday and the further strengthening of the structure in London. The May / July 20 spread reached new highs of GBP +69 yesterday and the remaining spreads continued as well. On the fundamental side, IVC reported arrivals of 1.677 mn vs. 1.725 mn (-2.8%) as of 05.04. Weekly arrivals were 32k mt vs. 51k mt. Ghana is at 688,080 mt on par with the previous year.

Apr 07 - More rains needed to boost Ivory Coast cocoa mid-crop - farmers 
Above-average rains across most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa regions last week were sufficient for the development of the mid-crop, but more moisture will be needed to strengthen it, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is entering the rainy season that runs from mid-March to late October when there are regular downpours.

 
Apr 07 - ICE sugar hedging by Brazilian mills rises sharply - study 
Brazilian sugar mills had hedged 17 million tonnes of sugar sales using New York's ICE futures contracts by March 31, a large increase over the same period a year before, Archer Consulting estimated on Monday. At the same time a year earlier, Brazilian mills had hedged only 11 million tonnes of sugar sales, the consultancy said in a note to clients.

 Apr 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It was, as expected, a volatile end of the week in cocoa. July 20 traded, albeit in low volumes, in a GBP 25 range immediately after opening. Friday's high was GBP 1783, marking a new 4-day high. Closing price July 20 GBP +7 at GBP 1771. The massively volatile May / July 20 spread, which traded from GBP +2 to GBP +64 at the peak / closing price GBP +47, caused surprise and uncertainty. Impressive, especially after the spread had weakened due to the new delivery limits on the markets. Commitment of Traders as of 31.03. show a further reduction of the net long position by 14,435 lots to 101,089 lots net long. Within managed money a clearer picture, the funds sold 17,246 gross long positions and 6,163 lots of fresh shorts. In New York the Managed Money Funds are now in a gross short position of 10k lots. The Ivory Coast is providing US$ 495 million in support for the commodity sector. A test centre under construction in Abidjan was destroyed yesterday by angry demonstrators.

Apr 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The downtrend came to an end yesterday after weeks. The buying interest at the beginning was quickly absorbed and technical support was once again tested with lows around GBP 1740 (see chart), but in the afternoon New York took the helm and led the quotations up again in London as well. The Jul 20 closed at GBP 21 up at GBP 1764, largely eliminating the week's losses. The arbitrage continued to widen. The May/Jul 20 spread was leading the way, trading back at GBP 4. The performance was certainly also driven by growing concerns about how the major origins might counter a potential spread of the Corona crisis. What is certain is that the countries of origin could not so "easily" activate billion-dollar protective shields if the spread were to increase.

Apr 03 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Report, Week 30 Mar-3 April 2020 (IPC)
- As Viet Nam reportedly implemented a total nation-wide lockdown, starting 1 April 2020, in response of trying to flatten the curve of Corona Virus spreading, market this week showed a mixed response as only Viet Nam was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,219 per Mt. The increase of Malabar black pepper price could be contributed to the slight strengthening of Indian Rupee against US Dollar. Following the social distancing policy implemented in Indonesia some major markets in Lampung and Bangka, two major producing area of black and white pepper, are closed. Consequently, Indonesia black pepper was reported with a slight increase of 2% as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 1,458 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 2,612 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,703 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,056 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with 2% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 1,577 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,381 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was traded with 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,766 per Mt which could be contributed to the weakening of Sri Lankan Rupee against US Dollar. China white pepper was reported stable and was traded at an average of USD 4,214 per Mt locally.
- International market showed a rather stable outlook with only Indonesia origin recorded an increase. India black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,484 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,808 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 3,110 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged. China white pepper was reported steady and was traded at an average of USD 4,414 per Mt.
- Prices at US market this week was reported quite stable, though business had become slightly unpredictable and slow due to the nation-wide lockdown as US became country with the most active cases of Corona Virus with 228,874 (as of 3 April 2020) and 6,095 total death. Many pepper origins were still very cautious when prices were already at very low levels and unlikely to fall further when US Dollar strong against International local currencies.

Apr 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Continuing the familiar pattern, the market crawled from unchanged to slightly lower until shortly before the end of the day and tested the next support line at GBP1740 (Jul 20). Yesterday unsuccesfully, the Jul 20 closed at GBP 1743; -12). Again, further long liquidations by speculators are likely to be the main reason for this decline. However, the question is becoming louder how much more can be liquidated without going short. When the net long position was so low last time, the structure was in carry, where a long position is considered disadvantageous for financial speculation. From today's perspective, a carry structure is still a long way off, with spread May20/May21 trading at GBP100. And fundamental? Ghana reported a main crop of 685k mt as of 12th March (previous year 678k mt); according to an unnamed source, Côte d'Ivoire reported 1.76 million mts, which would be a new record.

Apr 02 - Costa Rica farmers destroy flowers as coronavirus spoils exports 
Costa Rican flower farmers have started destroying lilies, roses and chrysanthemums they have lovingly tended for months after the coronavirus outbreak led to the suspension of flights to markets in the United States and Canada. "This was our work. We have grown and cared for them since they were seeds," said Cristian Quiros, a worker at the Flores y Verdes del Irazu farm in the central city of Cartago. "Now we have to throw them away, and it's such a difficult feeling."
 
 

Apr 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Also yesterday, the market found new lows with little volatility. Not unexpectedly, the Jul20 also broke through the next technical support at GBP 1760 and closed at GBP 1755, leaving GBP 25 short of the next support until the lows manifested in December 2019. However, the markets remain significantly oversold and the speculative long position is now only 37k lots... For the first time in over five weeks, the May/Jul20 spread has returned to discount (GBP-2). Although prices between this and the new crop are still clearly at premium, the structure continues to flatten out. In Côte d'Ivoire, the farm gate price remains the same for the middle harvest which is now beginning (FCFA 825/kg). Reuters reports that two major processors have been suspended by the CCC for exceeding their quota of export contracts, but analysts consider this to be "fake news".

Apr 01 - Ivory Coast suspends new cocoa bean purchases by Cargill, Barry Callebaut
Ivory Coast's cocoa board has temporarily suspended Cargill, Barry Callebaut and some other traders from buying new beans, it said on Tuesday, claiming they have already exceeded their contracted exports for this season. Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) chief executive Yves Brahima Kone told reporters the board had acted because the companies' purchases had exceeded the volume of their export contracts by more than 10%, and that they would be required to sell off their surpluses.

New York, currently in a "mini-uptrend" and influenced by a weak US$, was the aggressor of yesterday's movement. London, due to the expected hedge pressure from the origin, was slow to move and found resistance towards GBP 1600 / Dec 20, a similar picture to exactly one week ago. Closing price LDN Dec 20 GBP +16 at GBP 1576. NY Dec 20 $ +57 at $ 2279. The Sep 20 arbitrage extended yesterday to a discount of GBP -216. Speculation about the current average level of managed money shorts made the rounds yesterday. We see the larger positions in LDN around GBP 1620-1650 ("in the money") and NY around $ 2180-2240 ("under water").