Softs News
Jul 02 - Drought threatens French sugar output with no rain in sight
A prolonged drought is threatening sugar output in France, the European Union's largest producer, with no rain forecast in key beet regions over the next two weeks, growers said, as concerns over European crops fuel a rally in sugar prices. White sugar has gained nearly 10% in the past week, hitting a 9-1/2-month high on Wednesday, also supported by the El Nino weather pattern in Asia. Prices had slumped to a more than five-year low earlier this year on hefty supplies, hurting sugar makers' profits.
Jul 02 - Honduras' coffee exports up 26% in 2025-2026 harvest through June
Honduras' coffee exports for the 2025-2026 harvest from October through June jumped 26%, reaching 6.66 million 46-kilogram bags, according to data released on Wednesday by the Honduran Coffee Institute (IHCAFE). In the same period last year, Honduras' coffee output was of 5.29 million 46-kilogram bags.
Jul 01 - REUTERS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Q3 OUTLOOK 2026 - WANG TAO
A firmer U.S. dollar is likely to weigh on energy and metals markets. The dollar index has established a solid base and is gathering upward momentum, reinforcing the bearish outlook for crude oil, gold, base metals and grains. In contrast, palm oil and soft commodities appear less vulnerable to dollar strength and are expected to extend their gains. To read the full report, click here .
Jun 25 - Costa Rica coffee harvest hits 55-year low on erratic rains, economic strain
Costa Rica's coffee harvest fell 12% from a year earlier in the 2025/26 season to its lowest level in 55 years, the Costa Rican Coffee Institute (ICAFE) said on Wednesday. Growers produced 1.59 million 46-kg bags, down from 1.81 million bags the previous season, according to official data.
Jun 24 - Ivory Coast pauses cocoa export contract sales amid El Nino concerns, sources say
Top global cocoa producer Ivory Coast has temporarily halted sales of export contracts for its 2026/27 cocoa main crop as it waits for a clearer estimate of the upcoming harvest, two sources at the cocoa regulator said on Tuesday. Ivory Coast has sold about 1.150 million tons of beans for the 2026/27 main crop starting September 1, but has paused further sales as it assesses harvest prospects amid uncertainty over the impact of the El Nino global climate phenomenon, two Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) sources told Reuters.
Jun 23 - Brazil's sugar output down 26% as mills continue to favor ethanol
Sugar output in Brazil's center-south region fell 25.62% year on year to 2.2 million metric tons in the second half of May as mills kept a strong focus on ethanol, data from industry group UNICA showed on Monday. Brazilian mills have some flexibility over the amount of sugarcane they allocate to make sugar or ethanol, depending on the prices for those products. Since sugar prices have been depressed, they are putting a stronger focus on ethanol production.
Jun 23 - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers say heavy rain has raised fears of flooding and disease
Above-average rains and overcast weather in most of Ivory Coast's main cocoa-growing regions raised fears of flooding and disease that could affect the last stage of the March-to-August mid-crop, farmers said on Monday. Most farmers across the country said rains were regular and heavy last week. They feared that if this rain pattern continued, flooding and disease could prevent the mid-crop from finishing strongly in August.
Jun 22 - India likely won't export sugar for years as El Nino, ethanol squeeze supply
India, once the world's second-largest sugar exporter, is expected to have little surplus for export for at least three more seasons as El Nino weather conditions threaten cane production and rising ethanol demand squeezes supply. The twin pressures are poised to keep millions of tons of sugar off the world market, tightening supplies for importers across Asia, Africa and the Middle East and supporting benchmark prices in London and New York.
Jun 18 - ASIA COFFEE-Vietnam prices rise; Indonesia coffee harvest to peak in late July
- Vietnam's domestic coffee prices edged up from a week earlier, tracking gains in Robusta futures on ICE, traders said on Thursday, while farmers in Indonesia expected the harvest to peak from late July.
- Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's coffee belt, sold beans at 89,400 dong to 89,600 dong ($3.40 to $3.41) per kg, compared with last week's 84,800 dong to 85,300 dong range. "Farmers are releasing more beans at these prices as they are around the level they expected," said a trader based in the coffee belt. "They need cash for pesticides and fertilisers."
- Robusta coffee for September delivery has gained $227 in a week, settling $24 higher, at $3,622 a ton, on Wednesday.
- Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount range of $120 to $150 per ton to the September LIFFE contract.
- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta beans were offered at a $60 premium to the September contract, a trader said, down from a $150 premium a week ago.
- Another trader quoted a $100 premium to the July contract.
- A coffee farmer in Lampung said favourable weather was supporting fruit development and drying, adding that some trees were ready for harvest, with the peak expected at the end of July.
Jun 12 - From corn fields to cargo ships, ethanol gains early traction as marine fuel
Shippers including Maersk and mining giant Vale are turning to ethanol as a marine fuel to cut emissions as abundant supply and lower cost make it more attractive than other low-carbon fuels, with further commercial usage expected as early as next year. The use of ethanol in shipping could open a new demand channel for the fuel, which in some countries is blended into gasoline, while offering shipowners another pathway to cut conventional fuel use to meet emission reduction targets.
Jun 03 - Sugar output in major ASEAN producers — particularly Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines — is likely to fall in 2026/27 (SugaronLine)
As the world’s second largest exporter, Thailand is the primary source of sugar supply in East Asia, which, as Ritesh Kumar Singh notes in his latest East Asia Sugar Report, is likely to be hard hit by the country’s predicted production decline.
Government policies have lowered the farm-gate price paid to Thai sugarcane growers to below the cost of production, which is expected to lead to a fall of over 15% in domestic sugar output in 2026/27 and a fall in exports of around 14%.
Further, albeit less dramatic production declines are expected in Indonesia and the Philippines, adding to import demand in the region.
With top global exporter Brazil expected to tilt its domestic production towards ethanol and India currently banning sugar exports, the effects of tightening global sugar supplies could be most keenly felt in East Asia.
Jun 03 - Ivory Coast sees strong exports of cocoa main crop as El Nino looms over output
Ivory Coast has sold about 1 million metric tons of cocoa in export contracts for the 2026-27 main crop, but has started to slow sales due to concerns about the impact of a looming El Nino weather pattern on output, four sources told Reuters. The Abidjan-based Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) has also raised its premium on further sales from zero to at least £100 ($135) per ton above the futures price, according to two industry sources and two CCC sources.
May 28 - Brazil key sugar output more than doubles in late April, UNICA says
Sugar output in Brazil's key center-south sugar belt rose 109.48% to 1.8 million metric tons in the second half of April versus the year earlier-period, data from industry group UNICA showed on Wednesday. Sugarcane crushing during the second fortnight in April hit 40.062 million tons, up 123.12% versus the same period a year ago.
May 26 - Heavier rains in Ivory Coast boost cocoa mid-crop, farmers say
Rains were mainly below average last week in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa-growing regions, but their intensity improved compared with previous weeks, auguring well for the March-to-August mid-crop, farmers said on Monday. The world's top cocoa producer is in its rainy season, which typically runs from April to mid-November, but farmers say that rains have so far been uneven across key growing areas.
May 21 - India seeks to avoid a perfect sugar storm (SugaronLine)
On the face of it, the Indian government’s decision to ban sugar exports for the rest of the season looks unwarranted, especially as only half of the total export quota had been taken up. However, as Ritesh Kumar Singh notes in his latest South Asia Sugar & Ethanol Report, a potential convergence of events is threatening to create a perfect storm for the country’s sugar supply.
With the US/Iran conflict keeping oil prices high, Brazil, and other traditional sugar exporters, are expected to exit global markets to concentrate on ethanol production. This would likely see international sugar prices rise, incentivising India’s sugar mills to increase exports, especially on the back of a weak Rupee.
In times of strong harvests and high production this would all be to the good but, with India’s sugar production forecasts downgraded, sugar stocks are likely to be lower than expected. And ahead of a probable El Niño, expectations of a recovery next year are dubious at best.
But if tensions in the Middle East start to ease, and El Niño doesn’t turn out to be as strong as feared, could India’s mills be left ruing the missed opportunity to rebuild their beleaguered finances?
May 21 - As cocoa prices melt down, real chocolate is making a comeback
After a year of smaller bars, extra wafers and chocolate alternatives, at least one major chocolate maker is putting the cocoa back in — and others may follow suit — as a slump in bean prices since 2024 makes the traditional treat more profitable. The shift — driven by a near 70% slide in cocoa futures from late-2024 records — promises lower shelf prices for consumers, a demand recovery for cocoa farmers, and a partial reversal away from chocolate alternatives made with too little cocoa to qualify as chocolate.
May 19 - ISO forecasts global sugar market to flip into deficit in 2026/27
The International Sugar Organization expects the global sugar market to flip to a deficit of 0.262 million metric tons in 2026/27, marking its first estimate for the season ahead. The inter-governmental body noted increased risk associated with the looming El Nino weather phenomenon and said in a quarterly update on Monday that its deficit forecast was largely driven by an expected 2 million ton fall in production
May 15 - World Bank forecasts Vietnam 2026 economic growth to slow to 6.8% (Reuters)
- Vietnam's economic growth is expected to slow to 6.8% this year from an expansion of 8% last year, the World Bank said on Friday. The country's outlook remains solid but risks remain elevated in the near term, the bank said in a statement.
- "Softer global conditions are making Vietnam's external environment more challenging, with the oil shock adding to the downside risks," WB director for Vietnam, Mariam J. Sherman, said.
- Vietnam targets annual GDP growth of at least 10% for this year and the rest of the decade.
- The country is facing inflationary pressures triggered by the Iran war, leaving April inflation higher than the government's target of 4.5%.
- The WB forecasts Vietnam's 2026 inflation at 4.2%.
- Vietnam's banking sector has come under funding strains with credit growth outpacing deposit mobilisation, the WB said.
- A prolonged Middle East conflict could depress Vietnam's exports and exacerbate banking sector and currency pressures amid high corporate leverage and limited foreign exchange reserve cover, it said.
- The WB urges Vietnam to shift its growth model from factor accumulation and bank-led finance to productivity-driven growth, deeper capital markets and higher-quality FDI.
May 14 - India bans sugar exports until Sept 2026 to cool local prices
India on Wednesday banned sugar exports with immediate effect until September 30, 2026, or until further orders, the government said in a notification, as the world's second-largest sugar producer tries to rein in local prices. The move is likely to support global white and raw sugar prices, while allowing rival producers Brazil and Thailand to boost shipments to Asian and African buyers.
May 08 - Tightening supplies limited coffee sales in Vietnam, while trade was bustling in Indonesia amid the harvest season, traders said on Thursday.
Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam’s coffee belt, sold beans at 86,500 dong to 88,300 dong (USD3.29 to USD3.36) per kg, compared with the 87,300 dong to 88,000 dong range two weeks ago. Robusta coffee for July delivery settled up USD35, at USD3,413 a ton on Wednesday.
“Activity remains tepid as farmers hold back sales, while some buyers have already turned to Indonesia,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.
Another trader said weather conditions have been dry with scant rainfall in recent weeks, but remained favourable for coffee trees.
- Traders offered 5 percent black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount range of USD50 to USD80 per ton to the July LIFFE contract.
Vietnam exported 810,000 metric tons of coffee in the first four months of 2026, up 15.8 percent from the same period a year earlier, according to official data. Export revenue over the period fell 7 percent to USD3.69 billion.
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s exports of Sumatra robusta coffee beans fell to 7,304.9 metric tons in March, a 68 percent decrease from a year earlier, local trade office data showed.
- Sumatran beans were offered at a USD100 premium to the June contract, a trader said, compared with last week’s USD85 premium. Another trader paid a USD130 premium for the July contract, almost double the USD70 premium last week.
May 07 - India sees no need to curb sugar exports for now as demand weakens, sources say
India has no plans to curb sugar exports for now, despite lower output, as stable prices suggest weaker demand has offset some of the production shortfall, two government sources said on Wednesday. India, the world's biggest sugar exporter after Brazil, allowed mills to export 1.59 million metric tons, betting output would exceed domestic demand.
May 07 - Colombia coffee exports, production drop in April as rains disrupt harvest
Colombia's coffee exports fell 15% year-on-year in April to 682,000 60-kilogram bags from the 802,000 registered in the same month last year, as rains soaked key growing areas, the National Federation of Coffee Growers said on Wednesday. April production dipped 0.85% year-on-year in April to 697,000 bags.
May 06 - Uganda March coffee exports up slightly from a year earlier
Uganda's coffee exports in March rose 2.9% from a year earlier on the back of a good crop, the ministry of agriculture, animal industry and fisheries said in a report. The commodity is one of the East African country's top foreign exchange earners. Uganda is Africa's largest exporter of coffee followed by Ethiopia.
Apr 30 - Brazil's new coffee crop seen 11.5% larger, says survey
Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop, which officially starts in July, is expected to grow 11.5% from the previous season due to better climate conditions and good crop care, according to a survey of farmers conducted by the Coffee Trading Academy (CTA). The 758 farmers from all producing regions in Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter, were asked to give their estimates in percentage points of how much more coffee they thought they would produce this year, CTA said.
Apr 29 - Farmers in biggest cocoa producer are very short of fertilizer, survey says
Farmers in Ivory Coast, the world's largest producer of cocoa, are finding it difficult to get fertilizers for their crops and most of them have not bought any for the next two production cycles, a survey found. The survey, organized by crop forecaster HSAT, and conducted across Ivory Coast's primary cocoa-producing regions, covering Nawa, Agneby Tiassa, Sud Comoe, found that 73% of respondents have not bought any fertilizer.
Apr 17 - US sugar producers ask government to restrict imports
United States' sugar producers on Thursday asked the government to take trade action against countries it says are flooding the domestic market with sugar, saying local cane and beet farmers and sugar plants face financial ruin without an intervention. The American Sugar Alliance, which represents farmers and processing facilities, said it had filed comments with the U.S. Trade Representative asking the government to use protective policies against what it described as discriminatory trade practices by foreign sugar-producing nations, including subsidized sugar exports.
Apr 14 - Rains and sunny spells boost Ivory Coast's cocoa mid-crop
Good rains mixed with sunny spells last week in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa-growing regions helped the March-to-August mid-crop to develop well, farmers said on Monday, adding that harvesting is expected to pick up soon. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is in its rainy season, which runs officially from April to mid-November. Rains are usually abundant during this period.
Apr 14 - Brazil's green coffee exports fall 10.4% in March, industry group says
Brazil's green coffee exports fell 10.4% in March compared to a year earlier, totaling 2.66 million 60-kilogram bags, industry group Cecafe said on Monday.The decline reflects an off-season period, as well as capitalized farmers waiting for the best moment to sell their coffee, Cecafe head Marcio Ferreira said in a statement, also citing logistics issues from the war in the Middle East.
Apr 13 - Intense rain dampens Colombia's coffee production, down 29% in March
Coffee production in Colombia, the world's leading supplier of washed Arabica coffee, dropped 29% to 754,000 60-kilogram bags year-on-year in March, the National Federation of Coffee Growers said on Friday. Colombia's coffee output compared with 1.06 million bags recorded in March 2025 and was impacted by intense rain.
Apr 10 - Uganda coffee exports rise 17% in February on higher production
Uganda's coffee exports in February rose 17.3% compared to the same period last year, helped by higher production, the ministry of agriculture said in a report. Uganda shipped 651,933 60-kilogram bags of the beans in February, according to the report released late Thursday evening.
Apr 08 - India rules out sugar export curbs.
India, the world's second-largest sugar producer, has no plans to curb sugar exports, Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra said on Tuesday, as a fall in domestic consumption partly offsets lower-than-expected output. The South Asian country has allowed exports of 1.59 million metric tons on the assumption production would exceed local demand. However, output is projected to fall below consumption for a second consecutive year due to weaker cane yields in the biggest producing states.
Apr 07 - Honduras' coffee exports jump 30% in March
Honduras' coffee exports rose 29.6% year-on-year in March, according to data released on Monday by the Honduran Coffee Institute. Some 1.4 million 46-kilogram bags of coffee were exported this March, compared to the 1 million bags shipped overseas in the same month of the previous harvest cycle.
Apr 02 - Kenya tea exports hit by Iran conflict as stocks pile up
Disruption to shipping routes linked to the Iran war has left about eight million kilograms of tea stuck in warehouses in Kenya's port city of Mombasa for weeks, threatening export earnings and farmer incomes, the head of the East Africa Tea Traders Association said. George Omuga, managing director of the association that runs the Mombasa tea auction, said losses since March 1 were piling up to the tune of $8 million per week.
Mar 31 - Fifth of arabica coffee growing area to be unsuitable by 2050, report says
Climate change could result in 20% of current arabica coffee growing areas being classified as unsuitable by 2050, Rabobank forecast in a report on Monday. Currently, 8% of arabica-growing areas -- found in countries including Brazil, Colombia and Honduras among others -- are unsuitable for cultivation, where crops require more investment and produce lower yields, the bank said.
Mar 31 - Ivory Coast 2025/26 cocoa arrivals down 1.2% year-on-year as of March 29
Cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast reached 1.423 million metric tons by March 29 since the start of the season on Oct. 1, down 1.2% compared with the same period last season, exporters estimated on Monday. About 14,000 tons of beans were delivered to Abidjan port and 17,000 tons to San Pedro between March 23 and March 29 for a total of 31,000 tons, up from 14,000 the same week the previous season.
Mar 30 - Cooxupe, Brazil's largest coffee cooperative, expects to receive this year a total of 6.8 million 60-kg coffee bags from its members and third parties, up nearly 12% from 2025, officials said on Friday. The growth was attributed to an expected higher arabica coffee crop.
Mar 27 - Brazil to cut sugar exports by 14% as mills shift to ethanol, consultancy says
Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer and exporter, is expected to cut shipments in the 2026/27 season that starts in April by 14.2% as mills divert sugarcane to make ethanol due to high energy prices, consultancy Safras & Mercado said on Thursday. Safras projects total Brazilian sugar exports in the new season, including the Center-South and North/Northeast regions, at 29 million metric tons, compared to 33.8 million tons in 2025/26.
Mar 26 - Coffee futures to fall sharply by the end of 2026, analysts say (Poll)
Arabica and robusta coffee futures on ICE are expected to fall sharply by the end of 2026 compared to current values, with a larger crop in Brazil and the lack of demand growth driving prices lower, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday. The poll of 11 analysts had a median forecast for the price of arabica coffee of $2.25 per pound at the end of this year, 29% below the closing price of $3.1785 on Tuesday. If confirmed, it would mark a 35% fall from its price at the end of 2025.
Mar 24 - Indian sugar mills rush export deals on record-low rupee, rising global prices
Indian sugar mills have returned to the export market, locking in 100,000 metric tons of shipments in a week after a slump in the rupee to a record low and a rally in global prices restored the economics of overseas sales, five dealers told Reuters. Shipments from the world's second biggest sugar producer will help Asian and African consumers to secure sugar at lower prices amid rising freight and global prices, which are trading near the highest level in five months.
Mar 24 - REUTERS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Q2 OUTLOOK 2026 - WANG TAO
Brent crude and WTI may rise toward their 2022 highs, while palm oil to climb toward its 2024 high. Spot gold would keep reversing its long-term uptrend. LME copper to fall toward $10,935. Aluminium remains bullish. Soybeans are likely to retreat. Corn and wheat are riding steady uptrend. Coffee and cocoa may bounce further. The U.S. dollar index targets 103-104 range. To read the full report, click here
Mar 20 - Despite price cut, Ghana cocoa buyers lack funds to buy beans from farmers, sources say
Ghana's licensed cocoa buyers lack the funds to buy beans from farmers despite the government's recent move to slash the fixed price it sets for the chocolate ingredient, sources at the firms told Reuters. The government cut the fixed farmer price by almost 30% earlier this month, but the new price of 41,392 cedis per metric ton remains above global prices of around $3,200, giving international traders little incentive to buy.
Mar 19 - Is coffee the new cocoa? Some expect coffee prices to also crash
Some coffee industry experts have been drawing comparisons between the coffee and cocoa markets, projecting that coffee prices will sink in coming months, just as cocoa prices crashed after the chocolate-making ingredient hit an all-time high in 2024. Whether coffee will replicate cocoa's downward price curve was a focus of discussions at last week's annual convention of the National Coffee Association in Tampa, Florida.
Mar 12 - StoneX slashes global 2025/26 sugar surplus forecast by 70%
Broker StoneX on Wednesday slashed its forecast for a global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season to just 870,000 metric tons, citing a lower outlook for production in India. In its January report, StoneX forecast a surplus of 2.9 million tons for the annual global cycle running from October to September.
Mar 10 - Energy price surge to drive Brazil mills toward ethanol, cut sugar output
The sharp increase in energy prices as the war in the Middle East continues will drive Brazilian sugarcane processors to produce more ethanol and less sugar in the new season that will kick off in the coming weeks, analysts said on Monday. Raw sugar futures in the ICE exchange jumped more than 3% on Monday following oil futures gains, as the market anticipates a smaller sugar volume coming from Brazil's center-south, the world's largest sugar-producing region.
Mar 03 -Ukrainian sugar producers exported 270.000 tons of sugar in the first half of the 2025/26 MY (APK-Inform)
In the first half of the 2025/26 MY (September–February), Ukraine exported 270.000 tons of sugar, the National Association of Sugar Producers of Ukraine “Ukrtsukor” reported, according to the association’s press service.
During this period, the main destinations for Ukrainian sugar exports were Lebanon - 29%, Syria - 17%, the EU - 14%, North Macedonia - 6%, and Mauritania - 5%.
At the same time, the association noted that as of the end of February, the forecasted sowing area for sugar beet in Ukraine for 2026 stands at 170.000 ha. According to Ukrtsukor specialists, sugar production this year may decrease by almost a quarter to 1.3 mln tons.
Mar 02 - Asia coffee: Vietnam prices pick up post-holiday, Indonesia exports rise
Vietnam's domestic coffee prices rose recently as trading activities resumed after the Lunar New Year holiday, while premiums in Indonesia eased with farmers expecting a mini harvest to take place next month or after Hari Raya Aidilfitri.
Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's coffee belt, sold beans at 96,500 dong to 97,500 dong per kg, higher than the 94,300 to 95,600 dong range pre-holiday.
Robusta coffee for May delivery settled up US$63, or two per cent higher, at US$3,703 a tonne recently.
"Activities picked up after the holiday, but farmers are still not selling in bulk as they are still betting on higher prices," said a trader based in the coffee belt.
Another trader noted that the weather was favourable, with ample water for the trees.
Traders offered five per cent black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a premium of US$50 to US$60 per tonne to the May LIFFE contract.
In Lampung, Indonesia, exports of Sumatra robusta coffee beans rose to 18,788.1 metric tonnes in January, a 1.62 per cent increase from a year earlier, local trade office data showed yesterday.
On a monthly basis, shipments dropped 42.3 per cent from the 32,537.5 tonnes exported in December.
The trade office released revised data for previous months, including December 2025 and January 2025, which led to changes to initial calculations of percentage changes.
Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at a US$240 premium to the May contract, lower than the US$260 premium three weeks ago, according to a trader.
Another trader quoted the premium to the March contract at US$280, unchanged from two weeks ago.
Farmers in the Lampung region said the mini harvest would take place after Aidilfitri or around April.
Feb 28 - Vietnam coffee prices gain, Indonesia premiums fall
- Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rose on Thursday as trading activities resumed after a week-long Lunar New Year holiday, while premiums in Indonesia eased with farmers expecting a mini harvest to take place in April or after the Eid ul-Fitr festival.
- Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam’s coffee belt, sold beans at 96,500 dong to 97,500 dong (USD3.70 to USD3.74) per kg, higher than the 94,300 to 95,600 dong range pre-holiday. Robusta coffee for May delivery settled up USD63, or 2percent higher, at USD3,703 a ton on Wednesday.
“Activities picked up after the holiday, but farmers are still not selling in bulk as they are still betting on higher prices,” said a trader based in the coffee belt. Another trader noted that the weather was favourable, with ample water for the trees.
Feb 27 - Ivory Coast to cut farmer cocoa price with earlier start of mid-crop, sources say
Ivory Coast plans to bring forward the start of its cocoa mid-crop season for the first time ever, allowing the regulator to sharply reduce its set price paid to farmers in hopes of boosting sales, two government sources and two regulator sources told Reuters. The measures are intended to help the world's biggest producer address a crisis of excess stock resulting from a slump in global prices.
Feb 23 - After the Supreme Court last week struck down the U.S. administration’s signature tariffs,
President Donald Trump announced new across-the-board tariffs of 10 percent, hiked to 15 percent within hours, for goods imported into the U.S. This new global levy could last five months, while the administration looks for more durable workarounds.
The EU is crying foul, demanding the U.S. honor a deal the two sides approved last year, which set a 15 percent tariff rate for most EU goods, but allowed zero levy on some key ones. Trading partners need “full clarity,” EU officials said over the weekend. It’s also unclear what this means for Trump’s ongoing jockeying with Beijing. Some analysts estimate a new, 15 percent global tariff would effectively cut tariffs on Chinese goods by about 5 percentage points.
All to say that we are back to the topsy-turvy landscape of last year, when U.S. and foreign officials, corporate executives analysts and investors were regularly in the dark about what goods would be taxed, at which rates, and from what countries.
Meanwhile, several studies are showing that Trump’s tariffs are not penalizing foreigners and bringing America the economic boon that the president promised. One piece of research that has particularly rankled the administration was a paper by the Federal Reserve which argued that 90 percent of the taxes imposed on imports were in fact borne by people in the U.S. last year. Trump’s key economic adviser called the paper an “embarrassment.”
Feb 20 - European sugar producers feel the squeeze as market prices stay low (Vesper)
Two of Europe’s largest sugar producers, Tereos and Südzucker, have reported major financial setbacks, laying bare the pressure that persistently low sugar prices are placing on the sector.
Tereos posted an operating loss of €598 million for the first nine months of its 2025/26 financial year, a sharp reversal from the €218 million profit recorded in the same period last year. Goodwill and impairment charges, mainly in its core French sugar division, totalled €499 million.
Südzucker, meanwhile, announced it would not pay a dividend for the current financial year, having paid €0.20 per share in 2024/25. The company also warned shareholders of an impending impairment charge on fixed assets of between €450 and €550 million, attributing this directly to the weakness of the sugar market.
Cooperatives dominate, but diversification remains limited
The financial strain at both companies brings the ownership structure of the European sugar industry into sharp focus. Around 80% of sugar assets in the EU are held by cooperatives, a significant shift from thirty years ago, when investor-owned companies held a more equal share of the sector.
When quotas were still in place, several private-sector players used the strong cashflows generated by sugar to diversify into other industries. CSM, for example, moved into bioplastics and functional foods, eventually rebranding as Corbion, after selling its sugar operations to Cosun. Danisco sold its sugar segment to Nordzucker and its food ingredients business to DuPont.
Cooperatives, by contrast, largely chose to reinvest into the same or adjacent business areas, expanding their footprint in sugar rather than branching out. When quotas were abolished, most cooperatives did not pivot, and the industry has faced headwinds since.
Field conditions add further uncertainty
Looking ahead to the upcoming drilling season, set to begin in approximately one month, a German producer has estimated that the overall reduction in planted area will be around 5%, somewhat below what some peers have been forecasting.
Weather conditions will be a key factor in the weeks ahead. Large parts of France have experienced record flooding, and while rainfall levels in the beet belt are reportedly below the long-term average, they are closely matching last year’s numbers, which produced historically high yields. A mild winter has also raised concerns, as colder temperatures help suppress dormant pests such as aphid larvae.
Cooperatives dominate, but diversification remains limited
The financial strain at both companies brings the ownership structure of the European sugar industry into sharp focus. Around 80% of sugar assets in the EU are held by cooperatives, a significant shift from thirty years ago, when investor-owned companies held a more equal share of the sector.
When quotas were still in place, several private-sector players used the strong cashflows generated by sugar to diversify into other industries. CSM, for example, moved into bioplastics and functional foods, eventually rebranding as Corbion, after selling its sugar operations to Cosun. Danisco sold its sugar segment to Nordzucker and its food ingredients business to DuPont.
Cooperatives, by contrast, largely chose to reinvest into the same or adjacent business areas, expanding their footprint in sugar rather than branching out. When quotas were abolished, most cooperatives did not pivot, and the industry has faced headwinds since.
Field conditions add further uncertainty
Looking ahead to the upcoming drilling season, set to begin in approximately one month, a German producer has estimated that the overall reduction in planted area will be around 5%, somewhat below what some peers have been forecasting.
Weather conditions will be a key factor in the weeks ahead. Large parts of France have experienced record flooding, and while rainfall levels in the beet belt are reportedly below the long-term average, they are closely matching last year’s numbers, which produced historically high yields. A mild winter has also raised concerns, as colder temperatures help suppress dormant pests such as aphid larvae.
Market prices hold steady
At the trade level, the market remains broadly stable at around €400/mt ex works bulk basis. There were reports of one producer attempting to raise prices by €50/mt in Poland, citing undervaluation, but this was widely dismissed given the current high stock levels.
Cosun published its preliminary results for 2025, reporting an EBITDA of €269 million. After reinvestment, a beet bonus to members, and restructuring costs, the final beet price for members came in at €40/mt, down from €47.25/mt in 2024.
The IPR suspension remains unresolved, leaving the door open for imports into the EU, supported by a weak world market and a strong euro against the dollar.
Feb 17 - Cocoa Falls to Lowest in Over 2 Years (WSJ)
- Cocoa futures trading on the ICE are trading at their lowest since October 2023, with prices down 72% since finding a record high of $12,565 a metric ton in December 2024. The tumbling price has major cocoa-producing country Ghana reducing their "farm-gate" prices - prices that farmers are directly collecting for their cocoa crop, says Commerzbank in a note. "There are still around 50,000 tons of unsold stock in Ghana's ports," the firm says.
"This will make more cocoa available on the market, which is likely to put additional pressure on prices, as demand from chocolate producers is currently subdued." Cocoa futures are down 5.4% to $3,475 a ton today.
Feb 17 - Cocoa stocks from main harvest pile up in Ivory Coast warehouses
Unsold bags of cocoa beans are stacked almost to the ceiling in Sekou Dagnogo's warehouse in Ivory Coast's western Duekoue town, where his cooperative is struggling to sell to exporters following a fall in global cocoa prices. Exporters have been refusing to pay the guaranteed 2,800 CFA francs per kg farmgate price the government set at the start of the 2025/26 crop season, according to cooperatives.
Feb 16 - India Sugar exports to placate farmers amid US trade deal protests
India's on Friday allowed the export of 2.5 million metric tons of wheat and an additional 500,000 tons each of wheat products and sugar, as the world's second-biggest producer of both commodities seeks to support local growers amid protests over a trade deal between New Delhi and Washington. On Thursday, thousands of farmers staged demonstrations, alleging the government had compromised their interests under the interim U.S.-India trade framework, though the trade minister said safeguards were in place.
Feb 10 - Ghana cocoa glut deepens as demand slump leaves 50,000 tonnes unsold.
Ghana has about 50,000 metric tonnes of unsold cocoa sitting at its ports, the country’s cocoa market regulator Cocobod said, as a global demand slump leaves traders unwilling to buy at fixed domestic prices. The world’s second-largest cocoa grower, like top producer Ivory Coast, is struggling to sell its crop after global cocoa demand fell sharply, halving benchmark prices over the past year to two-year lows of around $4,000 a tonne.
In Ghana, the farmgate price — set annually by Cocobod — stands at GHS58,000 a tonne, or nearly $5,300, leaving traders facing steep losses on Ghanaian cocoa purchases. Buying has largely dried up as a result, leaving farmers unpaid.
“We're having some very serious discussions. It's a matter that government takes extremely seriously, and we want to resolve the issues as early as possible,” said Cocobod chief executive Ransford Abbey, Reuters reported.
Abbey said Ghana has so far harvested just under 585,000 tonnes of cocoa and sold about 530,000 tonnes, leaving around 50,000 tonnes unsold. He added that the total crop is still expected to reach about 650,000 tonnes this season.
Licensed Buying Companies (LBCs), which purchase cocoa from farmers on behalf of Cocobod, separately urged the regulator last week to urgently secure government funds to pay for roughly 300,000 tonnes of cocoa to “avert a deeper collapse of the country's cocoa industry”.
Their much higher estimate includes unpaid stocks at ports, unpaid beans held upcountry by LBCs, unpaid stocks still with farmers, and future inventory expected from the March-to-August mid-crop harvest.
“I cannot vouch for the figure of the LBCs,” Abbey said.
Many Ghanaian farmers have not been paid for their beans since November, according to LBCs and farmer representatives. LBCs warned that some stocks still held by farmers were being stored in fertiliser bags, a practice that could affect quality.
About 800,000 Ghanaian families rely on cocoa for their livelihoods, and the crop is a major source of foreign exchange for the country, accounting for around 15% of export earnings.
Cocoa can typically be stored for only six to 12 months before losing quality in hot and humid conditions.
Ghanaian authorities would need to secure about $200mn in funding to buy the unsold cocoa at current prices, according to Reuters calculations.
Feb 06 - EU sugar output to fall 9% next season as planting shrinks to decade lows
Sugar output in the EU, the world's third largest producer, is set to fall 9% in the upcoming season as sugar beet planting nears decade lows amid tumbling prices, industry executives told the Dubai Sugar Conference on Thursday. Sugar consumption is declining across Western Europe and the U.S. due to higher taxes on sugary soft drinks, health concerns and the widening use of weight-loss drugs, while global sugar output is growing, weighing on prices.
Feb 05 - Ivory Coast's cocoa regulator doubles weekly cocoa purchases to 20,000 tons amid quality concerns
Ivory Coast's Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) will double its cocoa purchases to 20,000 tons per week starting this week due to concerns about the declining quality of cocoa inventories, sources at the regulator told Reuters on Wednesday. Unease over the deteriorating quality of cocoa stocks prompted the CCC to accelerate purchases as industry officials said beans stored in poor conditions risk losing value and could complicate export efforts.
Feb 03 - Ivory Coast cocoa processors reject mid-crop, demand price relief, sources say
Ivory Coast cocoa processors are refusing to buy beans produced during the upcoming mid-crop, saying the cost is too high, and are demanding tax relief, three government sources told Reuters, in the latest sign of pressure on the world's top producer. As global cocoa prices plummet, the government plans a meeting of its Inter-ministerial Committee on Raw Materials, which is headed by the prime minister, this week or early next to discuss the demands, the sources said.
Feb 02 - Global sugar surplus seen 800,000 tons smaller at 2.86 mln tons, says broker
The global sugar surplus, or the production that exceeds demand, was projected on Friday to have decreased 800,000 metric tons from a previous forecast due to smaller output from Brazil and Thailand, broker and analyst StoneX said. The broker estimated the sugar market surplus at 2.86 million tons in the 2025/26 season that started in October, down from 3.66 million tons in November. It sees global production at 196.7 million tons while demand was projected at 193.8 million tons.