Softs News

Jan 15 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market report, week 11-15 January 2021 ( IPC)

- Market this week showed a mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week, at an average of USD 4,435 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,476 per Mt. The decrease of Indonesia black pepper could be contributed to the weakening of Indonesia Rupiah against the US Dollar (IDR 14,136 @ 1 USD) recording 1% depreciation. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 4,209 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 2% and 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week, to an average of USD 2,369 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,844 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black was reported with 2% deficit as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,208 per Mt. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable, averaging at USD 3,049 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with 2% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,778 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with 3% deficit as opposed to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 4,950 per Mt locally.
- International market was also reported with a mixed response as India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week, at an average of USD 4,708 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,994 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 4,925 per Mt. Malaysia black pepper was reported stable and unchanged. Whilst, Malaysia white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week, at an average of USD 4,950 per Mt. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with 1% deficit respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,805 per Mt, USD 2,886 per Mt and USD 4,375 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported with 3% deficit when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 5,150 per Mt.
- US market was reported unstable for the past 3 weeks, taking into account the global pandemic.

Jan 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Uninspired and unmotivated was also yesterday's action on the cocoa market. May 21 traded in a range of GBP 1634/57 and ended the day slightly negative GBP -3 at GBP 1645. The near March / May 21 spread gave up GBP 10 yesterday and traded at a premium of GBP +51. Grinding figures from Malaysia show a decline in Q4  of -2.5&% vs. Q4 19. After-hours NCA figures were released. These show an increase of 6.95%, just above expectations of +5%. However, it must be taken into account here that the Q4 19 achieved was the worst result in over 10 years, but of course pre-covid. Earlier today, Asia trailed with a decline of 4.17%, also above expectations of about -10%. New York remains closed Monday (Martin Luther King Holiday).

Jan 15 - North America cocoa grind up 6.95% from year earlier - NCA 
North American cocoa grindings rose in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 118,043 tonnes, up 6.95% from the same period a year earlier, according to data from the National Confectioners Association (NCA) released on Thursday. The data surprised analysts, who were looking at a repetition of the industry performance last year when quarterly processing volumes always came below 2019 numbers due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Jan 14 - U.S. bans imports of all cotton, tomato products from China's Xinjiang region
The Trump administration announced an import ban on all cotton and tomato products from western China's Xinjiang region on Wednesday over allegations that they are made with forced labor from detained Uighur Muslims. U.S. Customs and Border Protection said the order applies to raw fibers, apparel and textiles made from Xinjiang-grown cotton, as well as canned tomatoes, sauces, seeds and other tomato products from the region, even if processed or manufactured in third countries.

Jan 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The bearish news of the past weeks continued yesterday: already at the beginning of the week there were reports of abundant rain and good prospects for the mid crop. In addition, it was reported that the CCC would take over 50k mt of unsold cocoa from farmers and that it would also only sell 100k mt of the 300k mt of unsold export contracts of the main crop, i.e. 200k mt would roll into the mid crop. But even these fundamental goodies are still unable to put the market under sustained pressure. May 21 closed GBP 1648 (+9). It seems that the bulk of the industry has set its targets to cover at least below the GBP 1630 level base May 21, at which it would then still have to buy to maintain yearly cover.... 

Jan 14 - Suedzucker earnings outlook down on virus, quarterly profit jumps
Suedzucker, Europe's largest sugar producer, confirmed on Thursday that it has cut its forecast of full-year profits because of the coronavirus crisis and a tough sugar market, despite a surge of 69% in third-quarter earnings. Suedzucker reaffirmed that it expected full-year 2020/21 group operating earnings of between 190 million and 240 million euros ($230.74 to $291.46 million), off its earlier forecast of 300 million to 400 million, but still up from 116 million the previous year.

 Jan 14 - Little evidence coffee companies' sustainability efforts have impact - report
There is little evidence efforts by the world's top coffee roasters and traders to prevent human rights and environmental abuses are having any impact, with most farmers operating at a loss and unable to produce sustainably, a major coffee report said on Thursday. The Coffee Barometer, written by a group of global non-governmental organisations (NGOs), comes as top firms like Starbucks and JDE Peet's face rising demands from consumers for ethically sourced products.

Jan 13 - France pushes EU Commission on winemaker support fund after U.S. tariffs
France urged the European Commission on Tuesday to quickly answer its request to compensate French winemakers for U.S. trade tariffs as Washington added new levies on the sector. The U.S. government said on Monday it would begin collecting new duties on certain non-sparkling wines as well as cognacs and other brandies from France, among other products from France and Germany, after failing to resolve a 16-year dispute over aircraft subsidies with the European Union.

Jan 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A firm British pound yesterday destroyed any light upward thoughts, downward provided the GBP 1630 mark for support and the market succeeds partout not to break through this sustainably. The May 21 traded in a GBP 25 range (GBP 1624/49) and ended the day at GBP 1641 / GBP +11. The market continues to be preoccupied by the current "strategic meetings" of the CCC & CMCs, as well as a meeting of the ICE to discuss / examine the origin differentials. However, in an inverse / flat structure and further poor consumption expectations, who is brave enough to follow the old motto "buy the rumor, sell the fact"? In Ivory Coast, there are said to be over 100,000mt of up-country (warehouses too full and poor offtakes), meaning the arrivals of the last few weeks could be significantly undervalued.

Jan 13 - Brazil coffee crop seen falling 23% in 2021 - exporter
Brazil, the world's largest coffee grower and exporter, is expected to produce 52.9 million 60-kg bags in 2021, 23% less than the record crop of 68.21 million bags seen for 2020, exporter Grupo Montesanto Tavares said on Tuesday. According to the company's estimates, Brazilian production of arabica coffee will fall 37% to 31.23 million bags, while robusta coffee output is seen rising 17% to 21.67 million bags.

Jan 13 - Ivory Coast faces 100,000-tonne cocoa bean pile-up as demand slows
A pandemic-induced slowdown in global chocolate demand has led to a pile-up of about 100,000 tonnes of cocoa beans in Ivory Coast's interior, five exporters told Reuters, as farmers struggle to get by with lower-than-promised prices. The unwanted stockpile adds to a growing store of beans at ports in the world's top cocoa grower after chocolate makers and buyers in Europe and the United States asked that deliveries scheduled for October-December be postponed to January-March, the exporters said. 

Jan 13 - U.S. sugar stocks-to-use ratio climbs to 14.4% as output grows - USDA
The United States' sugar stocks-to-use ratio projection for the 2020-21 season jumped to 14.4% on Tuesday versus 13.5% seen in December as the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its estimate for the country's sugar production. In its monthly supply and demand report, the USDA revised up its view for U.S. sugar production to 9.15 million short tonnes, versus 8.96 million short tonnes in December. It would be the highest production since the 2017-18 season.

Jan 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Driven largely by the previous day's weakness in New York, London came under pressure soon after opening. With a narrow range of GBP 20 and, as recently usual, weak participation (17k lots), prices meandered during the day between lows of GBP 1623 and highs of GBP 1643 basis May 21, closing at GBP 1630 (-9). Supporting factors such as a weaker British pound and the continued inverse structure (which normally keeps speculative liquidation in check) each found resistance soon through hedge selling against cover from the origin. Added to this are reports of what is expected to be a good mid-crop. The CCC and the Ghana Cocobod are currently meeting for several days of strategic consultations - in terms of content, differential levels (recently under further pressure on balance) and perhaps even the future of the LID could play a role.

Jan 12 - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers get boost from rainy weather
Unseasonably heavy rains mixed with sun last week in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa regions, improving prospects for the April-to-September mid-crop harvest, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is in its dry season, which runs until March. Farmers said they were pleased with the rainfall and the weakness of this year's Harmattan winds, which sweep in dust from the Sahara Desert.
 
 

Jan 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the upward movement of the previous day, the market consolidated on Friday and almost entirely recovered its gains. The May 21 continues to struggle to sustainably break the GBP 1630 support and traded to a low of GBP 1637, closing GBP -16 at GBP 1639. Commitment of Traders as of 05.06 show a reduction in the combined long position of 3,731 lots, both markets now stand at a position of 72,678 lots net long. So what do we take away from the first week of January? Fundamental data continues to look Bearish, industry & trade seems to be taking a break until the Grinding figures are published. Big question mark remains the macroeconomic circumstances, as well as the resulting behavior of the Specs.

Jan 11 - Brazilian mills' sugar hedging seen at 69% of expected exports - report 
Brazilian mills have hedged around 17.25 million tonnes of future sugar sales using ICE contracts, or 69% of expected exports in the 2021-22 season (April-March), according to a projection released by Archer Consulting on Friday. Archer, who advises mills in the world's largest sugar producer, said the current hedging level is the highest since it started doing the projections in 2012. It expects Brazilian sugar exports to reach 25 million tonnes in 2021-22.

Jan 11 - Scotland's seafood exporters dealt new post-Brexit blow
The post-Brexit woes facing Scotland's fishing industry deepened on Saturday as its biggest logistics provider, DFDS Scotland, said it would halt exports to the European Union through one of its main services until at least Wednesday. Previously the company had said it would take until Monday to resume its "groupage" export service - which allows exporters to ship multiple products in a single consignment - while it tries to fix IT issues, paperwork errors and a backlog of goods.

Jan 08 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 4-8 January 2021 (IPC)

- Market this week showed a mixed response with only India and Viet Nam black pepper FOB price was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week, at an average of USD 4,494 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,508 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,157 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper were also reported with an increase of 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week, to an average of USD 2,332 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,822 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported stable, averaging at USD 2,259 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,050 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,849 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable and was traded at an average of USD 5,100 per Mt locally.

- International market was also reported with a mixed response as India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week, at an average of USD 4,768 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 3,033 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,869 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l and 550 g/l were reported with 1% deficit respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,835 per Mt and USD 2,916 per Mt respectively. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper were reported stable at an average of USD 4,405 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable with a marginal increase and was traded at an average of USD 5,300 per Mt.

Jan 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

For a change, both marketplaces experienced a somewhat more significant movement yesterday than in the first days of January. May 21 closed +25 (GBP 1655). London was mainly driven - with shallow participation (volume around 15k lots) - by trading in New York. Here, a large bid was placed on the trade of 2000 lots (so-called "trade at settlement" order) at the start of trading in London, which was also filled during the day and provided support for both marketplaces. The events around the Capitol in Washington also gave the opposition in Ghana some stupid ideas: There were reports of riots in parliament between the government and the opposition during the swearing-in ceremony of the elected president, which got so out of hand that the military intervened. An incident that surely added fuel to the bullish fire. We wish you a peaceful weekend.

Jan 08 - Indian sugar mills clinch export deals as prices jump - industry  
Indian sugar mills are aggressively signing export contracts after New Delhi approved a subsidy for overseas sales and as global prices hit their highest level in 3-1/2 years, four industry officials told Reuters on Thursday. The exports will help the world's second-biggest sugar producer to bring down stockpiles and support local prices, which, at odds with the global market, have been falling due to oversupply at home.
 

Jan 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the short-term fireworks of the last few days, the cocoa market seems to have moved back into the pre-Christmas range. Levels around GBP 1630 / May 21 and GBP 1600 for the later dates continue to provide good support, albeit with significantly subdued activity. The origin is, not particularly surprisingly, absent and looking for (rumored) levels just below GBP 1800 for further forward-sales. The May 21 ended the day GBP -17 at GBP 1630, with the arbitrage at a discount of GBP -164 LDN / NY continuing to contract significantly. Could be a sign that the surplus cocoa is being brought to the US for tender after all. On 20.01. the Q4 grinding  figures will be published. Initial estimates for Europe are in the single-digit negative range.

Jan 07 - Coffee exports rise 6.5% early in the 2020-21 season - ICO
Coffee exports increased by 6.5% in the first two months of the 2020-21 season, when compared to similar period a year earlier, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said in a report on Wednesday. Exporting countries shipped 20.2 million 60-kg bags considering combined volumes for October and November versus 18.9 million bags in that period a year earlier, the ICO said.

J
an 07 -
Costa Rica coffee exports up by nearly 18% in December

Costa Rican coffee exports rose in December by almost 18%, marking the seventh consecutive month of growing shipments to international markets, national coffee institute ICAFE said on Wednesday. The uptick since June is due in large part to strong production, favorable weather conditions as well as farm renovations. 

Jan 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

In light of Boris Johnson's announcement of a further lockdown until at least mid-February, the British pound weakened again but failed to provide any significant support. From the start, London continued its downward movement. The second month of May 21 marked lows of GBP 1634 in the early afternoon, where a little more liquidity and moderate industrial buying finally kicked in and provided mild support. With a loss of just under 1.6% across the board, the market came to rest; May 21 lost GBP -26 to close at GBP 1647. As with the previous day, the bulk of activity was concentrated on the front spreads, putting pressure on the inverse structure up to and including September 2021, the May/July 21 spread lost GBP 10 and is now trading at +30, Mar/May21 at +45 (-4).

Jan 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Although volume of just under 17k lots still indicated holiday mode, the front month March 21 traded in a range of GBP 54 / May 21 GBP 38. After opening firmer, resistance was soon found by spot selling which wiped out the gains. This was only to find renewed support with the opening in New York sufficient to reach the day's highs of GBP 1710 basis May 21. The close was still virtually unchanged at GBP 1673 May 21 (GBP -3). The market, like all of us, is seemingly looking for guidance in the New Year, Brexit enforcement, new lockdowns and upcoming US administration changes. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire in the week of the New Year, at 62k mt, are significantly down on the same week last year (84k mt), but this should not be a cause for concern.

Jan 05 - Funds raise net long position in sugar, coffee - CFTC
Speculators increased their net long positions in raw sugar and arabica coffee futures on ICE in the week to Dec. 29 but cut a long position in cotton, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Monday. Money managers and hedge funds raised their bullish bet in raw sugar by 8,253 contracts for the period, bringing their net long position in the sweetener to 153,760 contracts.

 
Jan 05 - Soil moisture helps Ivory Coast cocoa crop but slow demand forces bargain sales
Good levels of soil moisture from recent rain helped the development of Ivory Coast's cocoa crop last week, farmers said, though a drop in demand was forcing some to sell beans for less than the guaranteed farmgate price. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is in the dry season, which runs from mid-November to March. But unexpected rain in recent weeks has meant there were plenty of flowers and cherelles on the trees, which bode well for the April-to-September mid-crop.

 
Jan 05 - Honduran coffee exports drop 17% as coronavirus pandemic bites
Honduran coffee exports dropped 17.2% in December from a year earlier after demand on the world market fell amid closures of economies in an attempt to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus, an industry executive said on Monday. Central America's top coffee producer and exporter reported shipments of 281,470.65 bags at 60 kilos in December, down from 339,952.31 bags in the corresponding month a year earlier, preliminary figures from IHCAFE reports show.

Jan 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

On the last trading day of the year, it was a relatively restrained affair on the cocoa market. The only highlight was a brief dip in quotations in New York by $50, which, however, was short-lived. May 21 in London ended the day up GBP +3 at GBP1676. Over the past calendar year, the market in London lost 5.5%, while New York ended the year almost unchanged- We wish a good start to the new year.

Jan 02 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 28 Dec 2020 - 1 Jan 2021 (IPC)

- The beginning of 2021 was opened with a rather positive outlook for pepper market with only Viet Nam white pepper farm gate price was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,555 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 6% and 1% respectively when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,473 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,098 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable at an average of USD 2,318 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,799 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as opposed to previous week, averaging at USD 2,260 per Mt. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 3,048 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported stable and was traded at an average of USD 2,806 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable and was traded at an average of USD 5,075 per Mt locally.

- International market was reported with a rather positive outlook as India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,828 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 5% and 1% respectively when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,990 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,800 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Malaysia black and white pepper as well as Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. China white pepper was reported stable with a marginal decrease and was traded at an average of USD 5,275 per Mt.

Dec 31 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Even shortly before the end of the year, our little cocoa market did not disappoint us. After the May 21 with GBP 1616 has drawn new lows, the ultimate downward movement, came punctually at 2 pm the premature fireworks. With no discernible fundamental reasons (Speculative buying? Window dressing before year end?), May 21 erased the losses of the last few days and catapulted to a high of GBP 1675. Closing GBP +48 at GBP 1673. Pessimistic outlook on Q4 20 / Q1 21 grinds, undersold origins and the best S&D expectations in years make it hard to develop bullish sentiments. The industry, with about 7 months of price coverage, currently feels comfortable at levels around GBP 1600 for the later dates and will likely continue to provide support there. We thank you very much for your support during this exciting year and wish you all the best for the new year. Also in 2021, the cocoa market will certainly give us one or the other surprise.

Dec 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The ongoing, albeit hesitant, liquidation of longs continued yesterday. Albeit on more than thin volume, the May 21 traded to a low of GBP 1622. Closing GBP -10 at GBP 1625. Technically, the May 21 gap at GBP 1598 / 1608 (from mid-November) should be the next target and provide support. If we take a closer look at the ongoing second month, this gap (due to the month change) is between 1613 / 1627 and thus this could be closed by at least the first GBP 2. Shortly before the end of the year, some longs also seemed to roll their position from March into May, the spread converged yesterday from GBP +60 to GBP +49.

Dec 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

On the last half trading day before the holidays, it was a subdued morning in London. May 21 broke through support, albeit just barely, at GBP 1636 and traded to a low of GBP 1633. Closing GBP -16 at GBP 1635. Excluding London yesterday (Monday), New York was also still tired from the holidays and turned over just 9,000 lots. Closing price May 21 NY $ +33 at $ 2522. This, coupled with the current currency, gives London a theoretical firm opening of GBP +20. However, this is likely to be curbed from the origin by hedge pressure which built up over the holidays. Managed Money liquidated 5,300 lots on both exchanges as of 12/22/20, the first significant reductions since last weeks GBP 200 correction.

Dec 25 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 21-25 December 2020 (IPC)

- As Christians around the world celebrate Christmas amid the global pandemic of Corona Virus, Market this week showed a rather stable outlook with only Viet Nam and Sri Lanka were reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,530 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported stable averaging at USD 2,341 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,077 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper were also reported stable at an average of USD 2,309 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,782 per Mt for white pepper. In contrast, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with 4% and 8% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,248 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,088 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with 3% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,816 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable and was traded at an average of USD 5,088 per Mt locally.
- International market was also reported stable as India remained at an average of USD 4,801 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported stable averaging at USD 2,838 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,776 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Malaysia black and white pepper as well as Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. China white pepper was reported stable with a marginal decrease and was traded at an average of USD 5,288 per Mt.

Dec 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With a Brexit deal on the near horizon (we already reported on the fishing issue), the currency again dominated the action on the cocoa market yesterday. The good support mentioned yesterday at GBP 1636 seems to continue to hold and the May 21 recorded a daily low of GBP 1637. Closing price almost unchanged at GBP 1651 / GBP -2. It remains to be seen whether the second month will close its gap, from mid-November, at GBP 1613/1627 between the holidays. So far, continued good interest from the industry provided the aforementioned floor. London closes today at 13:23 and remains closed Monday, New York opens Monday at 14:00.

Dec 24 - Ukraine's 2020-21 beet sugar output at 984,300 T so far - union
Ukrainian sugar refineries have produced 984,300 tonnes of white sugar from 7.41 million tonnes of sugar beet so far in the 2020-21 production year, which began on Sept. 1, the Ukrtsukor national sugar union said on Wednesday. That already accounts for the bulk of the total white sugar output of 1.2 million tonnes predicted by the union for the full harvest year, a drop of 15% compared with the previous year.

Dec 24 - Brazil faces potential 'major failure' in 2021 coffee crop, specialist says
Soft commodities expert Judith Ganes came to Brazil this month in a bid to inspect coffee fields, only to learn about potential losses that could hit as much as 50% of next year's crop in certain areas of the largest global producer and exporter. Ganes told Reuters she decided to visit coffee farms after producers were able to harvest one of the best quality crops in Brazil's history. While dry weather is good at the time of harvest, a prolonged drought fueled speculation about a weakening of Brazil's coffee trees in the 2021 cycle. 

 Dec 24 - Ivory Coast cuts 2020-21 coffee farmgate price by over 21%
Ivory Coast has cut its 2020/2021 guaranteed minimum farmgate price paid to coffee farmers by more than 21% to 550 CFA francs ($1.01) per kilogram compared with the previous season, citing weak global prices due to the COVID-19 pandemic. A spokesman for the Ivory Coast government told a news conference on Wednesday that the marketing season for coffee will open on Dec 28.

 Dec 24 - New Tereos leadership says to seek profit boost for all activities
Tereos will aim to boost the profitability of its historical French sugar business and its diversified activities, its new chairman and chief executive said on Wednesday, following last week's ousting of the cooperative group's former leadership. "Our priority is improving the operational efficiency of the group in all its activities," Chief Executive Philippe de Raynal said in a statement.

 Dec 24 - Dutch exporters fear fruit will rot if Brexit deal not done
With the clock running down on negotiations over a Brexit trade deal, Dutch fruit and vegetable exporters fear that a failure to strike an agreement could lead to long customs queues and fresh produce rotting in trucks. The Netherlands exported about 2 billion euros' ($2.4 billion) worth of fruit and vegetables to Britain last year, and its port, Rotterdam, is the main hub for cargo passing from other EU member states to Britain. 

Dec 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

For the fourth day in a row, the level at GBP 1636 / May 21 seems to provide good support and a breakout has not yet been achieved. If we put the inverse structure in relation to this, these same GBP 1636 levels form around GBP 1600 for the later dates, these have also not yet been sustainably broken and continue to invite the industry to pre-Christmas price hedge buying. A weakening British pound also provided support yesterday. However, the May 21 made up for the previous day's rise and ended the day at GBP -17 on GPB 1653. Crop outlook in West Africa continues to look good, the Ivory Coast is said to have been in the market with further pre-sales for the current main crop. However, they still have a good bit of work ahead of them. This should at least cap the market on the upside, were it not for the specs, the near inverse structure continues to play into the cards for the longs.

Dec 23 - Larger crop, lack of rupees curb Iran's record Indian sugar appetite
India will be unable to count on Iran, one of its most important sugar customers, for its upcoming export drive as an increase in Iranian production and Tehran's shortage of rupees limit buying. New Dehli agreed last week to subsidise up to 6 million tonnes of sugar exports this season to try to cut surplus stocks and support local prices.
 
 

Dec 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A further weakening British pound, good price hedging activity by the industry yesterday ensured that the market, at least temporarily, created the feeling of a bottom at GBP 1636 (daily low). In the afternoon, the May 21 recovered and ended the day on the 200-day moving average at GBP 1670 / GBP +22. The origin is further / again in the starting blocks to accompany the market with pre-selling on the next rises, this should, at least in theory, make the air thin to the top. Volume is known to be significantly less over the holidays and the chances of an even more volatile market are high. One is certainly well advised despite a full stomach, thanks to the profligate consumption of chocolate, to have the market at least with half an eye in sight.

Dec 22 - Unexpected rains a boost for Ivory Coast's cocoa farmers
Well-above average rains mixed with sunny spells across most of Ivory Coast's cocoa regions should improve the quality and the size of beans in February and March, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is in the dry season, which runs from mid-November to March, when rain is normally light and infrequent.

Dec 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Despite the weak British pound (still no Brexit deal on fishing), London received only moderate support due to lack of volume and was at least able to cautiously continue Thursday's subdued uptrend. However, the May 21 found resistance at the 200-day moving average around GBP 1670, where triggered speculative selling put the market under pressure again. At the end of this listless, volatile week, the second month closed at GBP 1648 (- 9). Committments of Traders reported a reduction of the speculative long position by around 2.2k lots as of Tuesday, which now stands at 56k lots net long. The GBP, which is still weaker today, could support the start of the week. It seems that UK fishing, 2/3 of which is in the hands of just five of the wealthiest UK families, could tip the scales. A good start to the Christmas week.  

Dec 18 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 14-18 December 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed a mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,542 per Mt. Following stocks getting thinner, Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 9% and 3% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,352 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,097 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable at an average of USD 2,312 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,788 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with 1% and 4% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,342 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,342 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with 3% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,906 per Mt. China white pepper was also reported with 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 5,113 per Mt locally.
- International market showed a rather positive outlook as India black pepper was reported staying at an average of USD 4,814 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 8% and 3% as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,852 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,799 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,855 per Mt, USD 2,936 per Mt and USD 4,425 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 5,313 per Mt.

Dec 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It was another strange day. Hints from Brexit negotiators that there was agreement on most issues except fishing helped the British pound against the US$. As a result, London lost ground slightly after opening unchanged. The start of NY trading put further pressure on both markets through fund liquidation, but this time this triggered price hedge buying and profit taking. As a result, the second month of May 21 peaked at GBP 1664 and closed at GBP 1657 (+8). What is missing are bullish arguments, and bearish ones too, by the way. What is clear is that the lack of liquidity is fuelling further volatility. It looks like the Brexit negotiators want to have the matter off the table before Christmas, which may support the currency but may not generate enough resistance should sustained fixing set in.

Dec 18 - Brazil raises estimate for 2020 coffee crop to record 63 mln bags
The Brazilian government revised upwards its projection for the country's 2020 coffee crop on Thursday to a record 63.08 million 60-kg bags, bringing the official estimate closer to market consensus for production in the world's top grower. The country's food supply agency Conab said in a report it was increasing its view from a September projection of 61.6 million bags, saying that factors such as positive climate conditions, a larger planted area and a uniform flowering period this year all lead to a large production.

Dec 18 - Brazil ethanol company Cosan eyes reorganization, ADS listing
Brazilian sugar and ethanol company Cosan SA plans to undergo a reorganization and list American Depository Shares, or ADSs, for the first time, in a move the firm believes will increase share liquidity, the company said on Thursday. Under the planned reorganization, Cosan Limited, or CZZ, the company's financial arm, as well as logistics branch Cosan Logistica SA, itself a CZZ subsidiary, will be fully incorporated into Cosan.

Dec 18 - Britain to allow 260,000 T of tariff-free raw sugar imports
Britain is to allow 260,000 tonnes of raw sugar to be imported tariff-free in 2021 as it develops an independent trade policy for the first time in nearly 50 years. The quota will cover more than half of Britain's raw sugar imports which total about 400,000 tonnes per year.

Dec 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With hopes of a vaccine working soon, many investors were more positive about the future yesterday. Almost all commodities traded in positive territory yesterday, except for our beloved cocoa market. The May 21 lost GBP 34 at the top, broke through the "last" notable moving averages at GBP 1672 (50 day) and GBP 1697 (100 day) and traded down to lows of GBP 1644 / closing GBP -22 at GBP 1649. The March 21 ended the day at GBP 1688 and thus, the first time below GBP 1700 in over a month. The now first month now lost a total of GBP 200 after its rally from mid-November. The further ter-mine, from Sep 21, is slowly shimmying towards GBP 1600 on meager volume, but is struggling to break through it. The near March / May 21 structure flattened slightly, with a premium of GBP +35 in the low. Close here GBP +38/39.

Dec 17 - India approves subsidy to export 6 mln T sugar in 2020/21
India's cabinet on Wednesday approved a subsidy of 35 billion rupees ($475.78 million) to encourage cash-strapped mills to export 6 million tonnes of sugar in the 2020/21 year that started on Oct. 1. The export subsidies are designed to increase shipments from the world's second biggest sugar producer, reducing brimming inventories.
 
 

Dec 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After an initial firming around GBP 20, certainly also supported by the very weak GBP, it looked like the same pattern as in the previous days. While the highs of Monday were almost reached in the morning, London came under pressure with the start of trading in NY and erased the morning's gains within 30 minutes. Support was found at a level around GBP 1700, where May 21 also closed (GBP 1701; -GBP24). Volume was moderate (17k), it seems as if the market slowly switched into holiday mode. In Monday's expired Dec 20, 7,400mt was tendered in London, 95% of which was Cameroon. Boris Johnson's statement of a probable no deal is interpreted on all sides as a strategic bluff and easily seen through, as the firmer British pound shows.

Dec 16 - Brazil sugar production likely to fall next season, says expert
Brazil will produce less sugar in the 2021-22 season than the record 38.4 million tonnes projected for the current year, a leading sugar expert told reporters on Tuesday, citing poorer quality raw material for mills. Antonio de Padua Rodrigues, technical director at sugar industry group Unica, said output should fall "significantly" due to factors such an expected reduction on sugar content levels in cane next season. 

  Dec 16 - Brazil does not see U.S. retaliation after end of tariff-free ethanol quota
Brazil's sugar and ethanol lobby group Unica said on Tuesday it does not expect the United States to retaliate after the Brazilian government did not renew a tariff-free ethanol import quota that was almost entirely used by U.S. producers. The tariff-free ethanol import quota, for 187.5 million litters of ethanol, expired on Monday. 

Dec 16 - UK sugar beet pricing platform linked to ICE futures launched
Commodities group Czarnikow has launched a UK sugar beet pricing platform to allow farmers and processors to better control risks using futures contracts, as Britain prepares to exit the European Union's single market and customs union on Dec. 31. The platform is backed by the National Farmers Union (NFU) and British Sugar, the UK's sole beet processor, and will initially be tested by a pilot group of growers for a year, before being rolled out more widely.

Dec 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday's trading day was, once again, under the star of the current Brexit negotiations and their quite positively interpreted course (as of yesterday). A firm British pound led to the almost identical countermovement from Friday. March 21 traded up to lows of GBP 1731 and ended the day weak at GBP -28 to GBP 1747. May 21 (new second month) lost GBP 25 to close at GBP 1695, below the GBP 1700 psychological mark. Dec 20 expired at noon and with 20 lots of turnover and with a volatile spread of GBP +75 to GBP -80, we expect not too much cocoa to change hands today (we expect around 700 lots). Arrivals in Ivory Coast as of 12/13 are at 909,000mt vs. 912,000mt from last year (-0.3%)

Dec 15 - Brazil's new coffee crop seen falling 15%; Vietnam crop up – Rabobank
Coffee production in Brazil, the world's top grower, is seen falling 15% next year to 57.4 million 60-kg bags, Dutch bank Rabobank projected on Monday, which would take global production below expected demand in 2021-22. The bank expects the second-largest producer, Vietnam, to increase its crop in 2021-22 by 5% to 30.3 million bags, while it sees third-largest grower Colombia maintaining production at 14.4 million bags.

Dec 15 -
Sugar group Tereos postpones board meeting again, no new date

French sugar group Tereos has again postponed a board meeting due to elect a new chairman, a spokesman said on Monday, amid an ongoing dispute with members of the cooperative, which is the world's second largest sugar producer. Three board members found guilty by the Paris criminal court on Nov. 26 of making false accusations against Tereos are required under company rules to resign before a board meeting can be held, the spokesman told Reuters on Monday.

Dec 15 - Unexpected rains in Ivory Coast revive hopes for cocoa crop, say farmers
Heavy rain and sunny spells last week in Ivory Coast's cocoa regions boosted hopes for a positive outcome for the October-to-March main crop and the April-September mid-crop, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is in the dry season, which runs from mid-November to March, so these latest downpours have provided some unexpected relief. 

Dec 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The last full trading day before the expiry of the Dec 20 contract at noon today showed lively participation (volume around 37k lots). However, on closer look, this took place almost exclusively in the front months, which accounted for around two-thirds of the activity. The resulting end to the week saw a firming of just under 3% across the board - certainly with some support from the Brexit-weak GBP. The top performer was unsurprisingly the Mar 21 contract, which gained GBP 53 to close at GBP 1780, kissing the 100-day average (GBP 1712) goodbye. In particular, the Mar/May21 spread widened sharply to GBP 57 (+18), further cementing the inverse structure. It doesn't take a genius to hold the Managed Money Buyers accountable. As of Tuesday, however, their net long position (59k lots; +98 of total 87k lots/+4) remained almost unchanged.

Dec 14 - Funds cut net long positions in sugar, coffee, cocoa and cotton - CFTC 
Speculators reduced their net long positions in raw sugar, arabica coffee, cocoa and cotton on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to Dec. 8, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Friday. Money managers and hedge funds continued to reduce a once-massive bullish bet in raw sugar - the largest since 2016 at over 230,000 contracts - with a cut of 11,625 contracts for the period, bringing their net long position in the sweetener to 164,705 contracts.
 
 

Dec 11 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 7-11 December 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed a mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,532 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,158 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 3,962 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 6% and 4% respectively as opposed to the previous week to an average of USD 2,304 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,775 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,358 per Mt. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 3,468 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,985 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 7% as opposed to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 5,169 per Mt locally.
- International market showed a rather stable outlook as India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 1% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,804 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,631 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 4,649 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported stable at an average of USD 2,815 per Mt, USD 2,896 per Mt and USD 4,385 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 6% when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 5,369 per Mt.

Dec 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Two days before the expiration of the Dec 20 term in London, most activity yesterday was on the near Dec / Mar 21 spread. With moderate volume, this collapsed to a new low of GBP -110, here now the last longs also seem to have said goodbye. March 21 was almost unimpressed, but reached new lows at GBP 1711, making up a good 50% of the "November rally". Closed at GBP +2 at GBP 1727, so more or less unchanged. In London, 70 SDU's (10mt lots) and 2 BDU's (1000mt lots) were graded, 69 lots were accepted, while both BDU's were rejected. We wish you a happy 3rd advent.

Dec 11 - USDA raises U.S. sugar imports estimate by 400,000 short tonnes 
The U.S. sugar stocks-to-use ratio projection for the 2020-21 season jumped to 13.5% on Thursday versus 10.6% seen in November as the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its estimate for the country's sugar imports by around 400,000 short tonnes. In its monthly supply and demand report, the USDA revised up its view for U.S. sugar imports to 3.42 million short tonnes raw value (STRV) versus 3.02 million short tonnes in November.

  Dec 11 - Brazil sugar output at 427,000 T late in Nov. as season winds down 
Mills in Brazil's center-south region produced 427,000 tonnes of sugar in the second half of November, 22% more than in the same period a year earlier but 60% less than in the previous fortnight as the season winds down. According to industry group Unica, mills crushed 8.73 million tonnes of sugar cane late in November, 19% less than in the similar period a year earlier. Ethanol production stood at 587,000 liters, 22% less year-on-year. 

Dec 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With the British pound remaining weak in the light of the uncertain Brexit negotiations, the players were at least slightly more active than in the previous days with a volume of almost 19k contracts. London continues to hold its southern course towards the 200-day average (GBP 1683), albeit at a slower pace. The Mar 21 contract, however, still lost GBP 20 and closed on new lows at GBP 1725. It remains an interesting question whether the losses since Tuesday are due to further speculative liquidation/new shorts despite the inverse structure, or whether the industry had its fingers in the pie. Signs of the latter are the recent gradings at the exchange  (including 25 SDU new Ivory Coast beans), which may have put some pressure on the soon expiring Dec 20 contract and structure. In Ghana, the opposition strongly rejects the election victory of the re-elected President Akufo-Addo (51.59%) and his offer of cooperation. The narrowly defeated opponent Mahama speaks of an attack on democracy. Unrest surrounding the election has already claimed 5 lives.

Dec 10 - For commodities, 2021 is a times a-changin' bet on the pace of coronavirus recovery: Russell 
If 2020 has taught us one thing it should be the near-futility of making year-ahead predictions. Nonetheless, crystal ball-gazing is likely to once again be a popular year-end pursuit for analysts. When I indulged at the end of 2019 in looking at what 2020 would hold for commodity markets, the obvious big issue was the then-trade dispute between China and the United States, and the emerging hope of a deal.

 Dec 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With a net volume of well under 10,000 lots and almost all fundamental market participants baking Christmas cookies, the cocoa market is and remains a playball of the specs. These were in liquidation mode yesterday, in joyful anticipation of the end of the year. This took March 21 to new lows of GBP 1739 and the day ended weakly at GBP -34 at GBP 1745. Thus March 21 closed below the 200-day moving average of GBP 1751. The elections in Ghana seem to have been peaceful so far, with a few exceptions. It looks like the incumbent president Nana Akufo-Addo is leading with about 54%, the opposition does not want to acknowledge the results and refuses to congratulate the supposed winner. The Damocles sword Brexite also continues to hover above the markets. It remains to be seen what Ursula and Boris will decide during their dinner in the next days...

Dec 09 - Tereos unions call strike to back management in board tussle 
Unions at sugar cooperative Tereos on Tuesday called a strike at the group's French factories on Dec. 9 to express their support for management, after several members found guilty of making false accusations against the group were elected to the board. The action comes after several years of internal feuding at Tereos which has seen so-called "rebel" cooperative members raising concerns about the group's financial results, and just days before an election on Friday for the role of board chairman.

Dec 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The ongoing brexite negotiations and a weak British pound left at least the cocoa market almost completely untouched yesterday. A slightly weaker opening was followed by new lows to GBP 1756 of the recent development. Then perhaps premature holiday mode followed with catastrophically low volumes. March 21 traded more or less unchanged for the rest of the day, ending the day with GBP +4 at GBP 1779, also without any new evidence. Arrivals in the Ivory Coast as of 06.12 were 820,000mt vs. 824,000mt from 19/20 (-0.5%). Just one week after the sanctioning of Hershey by the CCC / CMC, it was lifted again over the weekend. Details of a possible settlement are not known to third parties

Dec 08 - Mixed outlook for Ivory Coast cocoa farmers as rains dry up 
Sparse rainfall and strong sunshine last week in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa regions threatened to weaken the main crop, but high soil moisture content in other areas was keeping the crop healthy, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is now in its dry season, which runs from mid-November to March. The main crop, which opened in October, also runs to March.
 
 

Dec 07 - Cuban sugar harvest gets underway amid crisis 
The Cuban sugar harvest got underway this week with the beleaguered industry hoping to match the previous seasons estimated 1.2 million tonnes of raw sugar, despite 10 fewer mills, less inputs and cane, according to local state media reports and sources. The National News Agency reported on Friday that three mills had opened.

Dec 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

At least volatility and manageable volume can currently be relied upon. March 21 was trading in a range of just under GBP 40 and continued its weak phase. New lows were recorded at GBP 1757, closing at "only" GBP -5 at GBP 1775. The "longs" seem to have taken a short break in the last reporting period and increased their combined net long position by only 4,681 lots, both markets combined now stand at 82,808 lots. Last week London lost a good 5% and New York 4%. Today the elections are taking place in Ghana, and since the country is considered politically stable, unrest is unlikely.

Dec 07 - Ivory Coast lifts suspension of Hershey cocoa sustainability schemes 
Ivory Coast will lift a suspension imposed this week on cocoa sustainability schemes run by Hershey after the U.S.-based chocolate maker committed to paying a premium aimed at combating poverty among farmers. Ivorian and Ghanaian cocoa regulators on Monday suspended the schemes, alleging Hershey was sourcing large volumes of physical cocoa on the ICE futures exchange to avoid paying the so-called living income differential (LID).
 
 

Dec 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After it looked as if the day's highs around GBP 1830 (and thus well above the psychological mark of GBP 1800) would soon be followed by a new strengthening, the Mar 21 contract closed in the evening at GBP 1780 (GBP -9). The opening of today's weekend kick-off is weakly anticipated at GBP-16, due to New Yorkers active in the evening after the close of trading in London. If the bearish momentum continues, the next support would be at the 50 day moving average just above the GBP 1700 level. However, we should not forget that the specs have increased their long position by about 50k lots in the past 2 weeks and will be reluctant exiting in the inverse structure in 2021. Indicative of this is the increasing open interest. Liquidity for these 50k lots / 500k mt long seems to have been generated by origination sales who took advantage of the levels and lowered their differentials. Ghana in particular took the opportunity and is said to have sold (unconfirmed) almost half (200 -250k mt) of these lots during this period. At around 100k mt, new IVC sales are estimated to be comparatively lower.

Dec 04 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 30 Nov-4 Dec 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week was reported with a positive outlook. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,506 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 2,135 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,953 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and were traded at an average of USD 2,167 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,643 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% and 4% respectively as opposed to the previous week to an average of USD 2,391 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,467 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported stable and was traded at an average of USD 3,013 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable and unchanged.
- International market showed a rather stable outlook as India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 1% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,777 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable, averaging at USD 2,605 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,638 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper as well as China white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged.
- Pepper price in US market was reported with a decreasing trend as well as limited offers. Muntok white pepper in US Market for CF December/January was reported at USD 4.800 per Mt.

Dec 04 - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers threaten to boycott industry sustainability programs Cocoa farmers in Ivory Coast said on Thursday they would withdraw from chocolate industry sustainability programs if companies try to avoid paying a premium aimed at combating farmer poverty. The world's top producer introduced a $400 per tonne premium this season, known as a living income differential (LID), to increase farmer wages.

 Dec 03 - Egypt extends import ban on white and raw sugar for 3 months 
Egypt has extended an import ban on white and raw sugar for three months, the trade and industry ministry said in statement on Thursday. The decision was aimed at tightening control over imported products amid precautionary measures to contain the spread of coronavirus, Trade and Industry Minister Naveen Gamea said in the statement.
 
 

Dec 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

On "Day 3 after the letters" it is difficult to choose a "star" of yesterday's performance. If we had to decide it would be the near Dec 20 / March 21 spread. Immediately after the opening, a fundamental long holder panicked and promptly sold close to 4K lots of the spread. This led to a massive collapse of the Dec 20 of over GBP 100, the spread literally collapsed and traded down to a discount of GBP -70, losing almost GBP 120 in just one week and making the tander of cocoa against Dec 20 highly unattractive again. Due to the current allegations of origin, the fundamental longs appear to be rethinking their position of looking into to taking cocoa off the market in December. The March 21 date traded in a GBP 51 range, ending the day weak at GBP -33 at GBP 1789. Managed money, at least the short term specs, also seem to be slowly moving out of their Dec 20 position. The March / May 21 spread converged yesterday from GBP +79 to GBP +35. The structure remains highly volatile and will determine the further course....

Dec 03 - Ukraine 2020/21 white beet sugar output reaches 887,200 T
Ukrainian sugar refineries have produced 887,200 tonnes of white sugar from 6.69 million tonnes of sugar beet so far in the 2020-2021 harvest year, which began on Sept. 1, the Ukrtsukor national sugar union said on Wednesday. The union has predicted that output of white sugar will fall in the full year to about 1.2 million tonnes from 1.48 million tonnes in the previous year because of a weaker beet harvest. 

Dec 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The previous day's rather tentative range was already more pronounced at GBP 48. The front spread Dec20/Mar21 converged to GBP -1, equalising a discount of GBP-21, and the 2nd month continued to fall, three times as much as the previous day, but found support on the 10-day average. The Mar21 closed GBP -36 at GBP 1822 and the fall in open interest (-12k lots) and the aforementioned selling of the front spread gives an idea of how the market perceives the short term available stocks, i.e. too little cocoa for industrial needs. Recent speculative buying, coupled with the active participation of the originators and further overbought markets, are drawing contours of a (soon?) consolidation. Meanwhile, the industry is by no means ready to accept the accusations recently made by the CCC and CMC in open letters. In their own statements, Hershey and his peers express their regret about the false accusations of intentionally avoiding payment of the LID at the expense of the farmers. On the contrary, the actors stand by their commitment to recognise the LID and to pay. 

Dec 02 - Honduras coffee exports fall 55% in November after hurricane damage
Honduran coffee exports fell 55.3 percent in November year-on-year because of lower demand on world markets and the impact of two hurricanes that damaged roads connecting to farms and ports, an industry executive said on Tuesday. Exports from Honduras, Central America's top coffee producer, totaled 47,685.39 60-kg bags in November, compared with 106,823.04 bags in the same month in 2019, according to preliminary figures by the national coffee institute, IHCAFE.

Dec 02 - French sugar beet growers see Brexit risk as market recovers
Large French sugar and ethanol exports to Britain could suffer under new trade terms between the European Union and its former member, clouding prospects for producers seeking to benefit from a recovery in prices, France's sugar beet growers' union said. France, the EU's largest sugar producer, usually supplies between 300,000 and 400,000 tonnes of white sugar per year to Britain, accounting for around two-thirds of EU sugar exported to Britain, the CGB said.
 

Dec 02 - U.S. Supreme Court justices question human rights claims against Nestle and Cargill
U.S. Supreme Court justices on Tuesday appeared wary of barring lawsuits against American companies over alleged human rights abuses abroad but signaled they could toss out a case accusing Cargill Inc and a Nestle SA subsidiary of knowingly helping to perpetuate slavery at Ivory Coast cocoa farms. The two companies are asking the nine justices to reverse a lower court ruling that allowed the lawsuit, filed in 2005 on behalf of former child slaves from Mali who worked at the farms, to proceed. 

 
Dec 02 - Ivory Coast struggles to sell cocoa amid dispute over farmer premium
Ivory Coast has not sold up to 15% of cocoa from its ongoing main crop, while the vast majority of the upcoming mid-crop remains unsold as the COVID-19 pandemic drives down chocolate demand, four industry and regulatory sources said on Tuesday. The performance is the worst in decades for the world's top cocoa producer and comes amid an escalating standoff with industry buyers over a premium aimed at combating farmer poverty. 

Dec 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With a range of GBP 21 and a closing price of GBP -11 at GBP 1858, the markets looked to be consolidating yesterday. The near Dec 20 / March 21 spread trades a highly volatile event again last week with the exception of a discount of GBP -22, coming from GBP +70. However, this became a minor issue yesterday. The CCC and CMC yesterday published a series of open letters, including directly to Hershey, and the Cocoa Merchants of America, from which both organisations are withdrawing with immediate effect. The "name and shame" policy began yesterday, with the naming of a number of companies which, according to the origins, have not kept their promises and have probably relied in part on other origins. Hershey's sustainability programmes, as well as those of its partners, are to be stopped with immediate effect. Malicious tongues are questioning who has benefited most from the latest development (GBP +300 / US$ +500), certainly not industry or trade, but rather the heavily under-sold origins. Commitment of Traders show a combined expansion of the net long position of over 19k lots. Managed Money added a good 23k lots of fresh long and liquidated almost 15k lots of shorts. Combined, both markets now have a net long position of 78,127 lots.

Dec 01 - Ivory Coast, Ghana cancel cocoa sustainability schemes run by Hershey
Ivory Coast and Ghana are cancelling all cocoa sustainability schemes that U.S.-based Hershey runs in their countries, accusing the chocolatemaker of trying to avoid paying a cocoa premium aimed at combating farmer poverty. In a letter addressed to Hershey and seen by Reuters, the Ivorian and Ghanaian cocoa regulators accuse Hershey of sourcing unusually large volumes of physical cocoa on the ICE futures exchange in order to avoid the premium, known as a living income differential (LID). 

Nov 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After an unchanged opening, London continued to grow significantly in the first half hour, but the fortification did not last long. Buyers got cold feet and backed off, with the market falling by GBP 30 within minutes and testing lows at GBP 1832 (Mar21). Such rapid movements no longer come as a great surprise - the modest volume (2.5k lots in Mar21) continues to create considerable volatility. New speculative buying then brought support and new daily highs - managed money is always reliable. The Mar21 closed an eventful day at GBP 1869 (+9). The COT numbers for NY are only released today due to Thanksgiving, the London Specs gained 14k lots. Most of the momentum is short cover, while new longs are hesitant to join. A referendum in Switzerland has confirmed the supply chain responsibility of corporations in a softened form.

Nov 30 - Australia's Treasury Wine to divert China wine over tariffs, shares tumble
Australia's Treasury Wine Estates Ltd said on Monday it would divert hundreds of thousands of cases of China-bound wine to other countries to avoid hefty tariffs, battering its shares as it acknowledged its future in its biggest market was unclear. After Beijing imposed a 169.3% mark-up as part of an industry-wide anti-dumping investigation, the world's largest listed winemaker said it would redirect sales of its prized Penfolds label to the U.S., Europe, elsewhere in Asia and domestically.

 Nov 30 - Nigerian cocoa export delays to likely worsen FX scarcity
Around 100,000 tonnes of cocoa have been caught up by the new system, Mufutau Abolarinwa said. The delay to shipments of Nigeria's second biggest export could worsen dollar scarcity in Africa's biggest economy. "October delivery is in default," Abolarinwa said by phone. "But buyers are aware that the procurement is already at the ports."

Nov 27 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 23-27 November 2020 (IPC)
- Market this week was reported with a positive outlook. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,467 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable with a marginal decrease averaging at USD 2,136 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 2% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,919 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable with a marginal increase and were traded at an average of USD 2,159 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,630 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported stable with a marginal increase at an average of USD 2,373 per Mt. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported with an increase of 3% as opposed to the previous week to an average of USD 3,339 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 3,011 per Mt.
- International market showed a rather stable outlook as India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 1% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,738 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable with a marginal decrease averaging at USD 2,606 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 2% when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,601 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged.

Nov 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Without the involvement of the New York market, at least one thing was clear from the start.... the volume will end miserably. With a turnover of just 10,000 lots, the London market was quite volatile. March 21 traded in a range of GBP 38 (High GBP 1862 / Low GBP 1824) and ended the day close to the high of GBP 36 at GBP 1860. March / May 21 extended to a significant premium of GBP +76. The Dec 20 / March 21 spread is still a mystery, it converged again to a premium of GBP +9 (2 days ago it was GBP 70). The Commitment of Traders Report will be published on Monday due to yesterday's holiday in the USA. However, analysts see an expansion of around 30,000 lots of the speculative long position. The CCC yesterday again condemned Hershey's actions and sees it as a conspiracy to undermine the LID.

Nov 27 - China to impose temporary anti-dumping measures on Australian wine imports
Australia has responded defiantly to China imposing anti-dumping tariffs on Australian wine, saying the "seriously concerning development" looks to be about diplomatic grievances and not any action by winemakers. China will impose temporary anti-dumping tariffs of 107.1% to 212.1% on wine imported from Australia from Nov. 28, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said on Friday.

Nov 27 - China's largest wholesale market suspends sales, storage of frozen goods as COVID precaution
China's biggest wholesale food market has suspended the sale and storage of chilled and frozen meat and seafood as the government ramps up inspections of cold-chain goods after several new cases of coronavirus infections. The Xinfadi market in Beijing, which was at the centre of an outbreak of COVID-19 cases in the Chinese capital in June, has disposed of products and disinfected over a hundred cold storage units and shut down their power, the state-backed Beijing News has reported.  

Nov 26 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It was the first sign of relief after nine trading days. The origin used the recent rally and probably finally found a few buyers for quantities (which probably changed hands far below the officially demanded differentials). Resulting price hedging against these origin covers put the market under heavy pressure. Speculative longs - clearly overbought markets and the NY holiday (Thanksgiving) in sight - soon became nervous on both trading platforms and did the rest. The Mar21 lost a good GBP 50 in the first few hours in London, but found support at GBP 1800, and for the rest of the day it struggled to make up ground. The close showed GBP 1824 (-30) base Mar21. Today, London has a clear track, because New York remains closed - everybody knows that siblings who are left alone may be well-behaved, but as is well known, they can also cause trouble. We will see.

Nov 26 - Ivory Coast says Hershey cocoa beans deal could derail farmer income scheme
U.S. chocolate maker Hershey's move to buy cheap beans from the New York futures exchange is an attempt to derail plans by Ivory Coast and Ghana to increase farmers' income, the Ivorian cocoa regulator alleged in a letter seen by Reuters on Wednesday. Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world's top producers, are expected to sell their first full cocoa crop this season under a new scheme that includes a price premium of $400 per tonne, but they have clashed with industry over its implementation.  

Nov 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After a day of "pause", the cocoa market was again unleashed yesterday. March 21 traded in an impressive GBP 51 range, breaking through its September highs at GBP 1865 and peaking at GBP 1881, but if the near Dec / March spread was still subdued during the last rise, it literally exploded (in thin volumes). At the end of the previous day, the spread was at a level of GBP +70 (and then only GBP +34 at the end). We are now seeing, with some delay, a similar picture to New York 1.5 weeks ago. The March 21 date ended the day with only GBP +19 to GBP 1854 due to somesales of the origin. The Algos / Funds / Black Box Traders seem to be in a massive buying mood. Tomorrow New York will remain closed (Thanksgiving) and we hope at least for a breather and less superlatives in the coming reports....

Nov 25 - Indian mills sign sugar export deals without government sweetener
Indian sugar mills have for the first time in three years agreed export agreements without the support of government subsidies as they scramble to pay dues owing to farmers, four industry officials told Reuters. So far they have contracted 10,000 tonnes of white sugar for exports in the new season that began on Oct. 1, which they face selling at a loss, potentially weighing on international prices. 

Nov 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday, London continued its ascent unperturbed and marked new highs of GBP 1839 base Mar 21, even though it closed slightly lower in the evening (GBP 1835; +19). Compared to the last five trading days, however, the gain was much smaller. The rally seems to be slowing down. Volumes (22k lots) and open interest were also down yesterday, suggesting that new managed money longs have been more subdued. However, the Mar21/May21 spread marked a new high and is now trading at a premium of GBP+49 - the inverse structure from which speculative longs in particular usually benefit by rolling their position continues to manifest itself. The origin also shows a solid performance with arrivals of 97k mt, well above the previous year's level (89k mt). Due to hesitant international buying, however, the backlog in shipments is also growing.

Nov 24 - Mixed outlook for Ivory Coast cocoa farmers as Harmattan bears down
Below-average rainfall last week in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa regions could weaken the last stages of the October-to-March main-crop harvest, although conditions remained favourable in some other regions, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is now in the dry season, which runs from mid-November to March. The north of is already experiencing Harmattan winds, which sweep in dust from the Sahara, harming cocoa pods and drying out the soil.

Nov 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The upward trend continued almost unchecked on Friday. March 21 gained GBP 47 at its peak and broke through the next psychological resistance at GBP 1800 with highs of GBP 1837. Closing March 21 GBP +25 at GBP 1816. New York broke through the September highs on Friday at $ 2708 (high Friday $2746 / closing $ 2712), while London is gradually moving towards its Sep highs of GBP 1865. With gains of GBP 210 / $350, last week was certainly a week to remember for many. The still under-sold origin, combined with the threats to stop sustainability programmes, should theoretically soon become apparent in the market. Only who will buy or go long in the current situation, if they do not "have to"? For the sake of completeness, Commitment of Traders (deadline Tuesday 17.11) show an expansion of the long position from 12k lots to 58,357 lots net long

Nov 23 - Funds raise bullish bet in raw sugar, switch to long position in arabica
Speculators increased their net long position in raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to Nov. 17 by 11,543 contracts for a total net long bet of 201,971 contracts, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Friday. Despite a small liquidation in the week before, money managers and hedge funds remain with a very large long position in raw sugar, the largest since 2016, in a moment when the market looks for direction with traders seeing a somewhat tight market until the new crop in Brazil starts around March.

Nov 23 - U.S. company Hershey grabs cocoa stocks from exchange, avoids African price premium
U.S. chocolate maker Hershey Co has positioned itself to receive a sizeable amount of cheap cocoa from futures exchange ICE, a move that highlights difficulties African producers are having to sell beans at a recently-agreed premium, traders said. According to several market sources, Hershey moved to take delivery of thousands of cocoa lots before the December contract expires on Dec. 15. Dealers suggest volumes of up to 30,000 tonnes.
 
 

Nov 20 - Weekly Int'l pepper Market Report, Week 16-20 November 2020 (IPC)

- As Indians celebrate Diwali 2020 amid the global pandemic of Corona Virus, market this week was reported with a positive outlook. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,437 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported stable with a marginal decrease averaging at USD 2,139 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,835 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively when compared to the previous week and were traded at an average of USD 2,151 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,616 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week to an average of USD 2,364 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,254 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported stable with a marginal increase and was traded at an average of USD 2,990 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 4% when compared to the previous week to an average of USD 4,850 per Mt.

- International market also showed a positive outlooks as India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 1% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,706 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported stable with a marginal decrease averaging at USD 2,608 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,507 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week to an average of USD 2,805 per Mt, USD 2,886 per Mt and USD 4,375 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 4% when compared to the previous week to an average of USD 5,050 per Mt internationally.

- International market was reported with a decreasing trend as less demand from USA and Europe. Furthermore, China was predicted to increase their demand at the end of the year as they need to cover their positions for the coming Lunar Year. Muntok white pepper in US Market for CF November/December was reported at USD 4.500 per Mt.

Nov 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With gains of almost GBP 200 in 4 trading days, there was no sign of easing yesterday. The March 21 moved towards the next psychological resistance at GBP 1800 with yesterday's highs of GBP 1796. Closing March 21 GBP +48 at GBP 1791, the near Dec / March spread continued to trade at a discount of GBP -20, moving against the actual trend. Historically, this week's rally was the strongest since 2009! A Bloomberg report from last night reports what many market participants suspected. Hershey is said to have applied to the ICE NY for an exemption to receive much more cocoa from the Dec 21 position than the 10,000mt allowed under the position limits. This is said to be a quantity of up to 50,000mt. This caused the spreads to explode last Friday and the Algos / Funds jumped on the bandwagon. We leave the question of whether it makes sense or not up to each individual. It is understandable that the origin reacts just like everyone else and threatens to continue to suspend sustainability programmes, according to the "name and shame" principle, if LID cocoa is no longer accepted

Nov 20 - Brazil's 2020-21 coffee crop seen unchanged at 67.9 mln bags - USDA Brazilian coffee farmers produced 67.9 million 60-kg bags of coffee in the 2020-21 crop (July-June), according to an attache report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) office in Sao Paulo, which kept its crop estimate unchanged. The volume is a record, surpassing the previous high of 66.5 million bags produced in the 2018-19 season, according to USDA, who added that quality was also very good considering size of beans and taste for both robusta and arabica varieties.      

Nov 20 - Ghana, Ivory Coast threaten to suspend cocoa companies' sustainability schemes  

Ghana's cocoa regulator threatened on Thursday to suspend the sustainability schemes used by major cocoa and chocolate companies to assure consumers that the beans they use are sustainably and ethically sourced. In comments prepared for the World Cocoa Foundation conference on behalf of Ghana and its west African neighbour Ivory Coast, Joseph Aidoo, chief executive of Ghanaian regulator Cocobod said cocoa and chocolate companies in West Africa were thwarting government attempts to combat farmer poverty. 

Nov 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Fuelled by an increasingly inverse market structure (backwardation), the Managed Money Shorts seem to bite the bullet and pass the baton to new long ones. Thus, speculative buying yesterday gave both markets a further boost. In London, even the 50-day average was unable to stop the rally, and quotations rose by almost 2.5%. The Mar 21 rose by a further GBP +39 and closed at its high of the day at GBP 1743, with Dec 20 open interest declining further (-1500), which caused the Dec20/Mar21 to melt to -1.

What is Brexit actually doing? UK chief negotiator David Frost told Boris Johnson that he expects a deal with the EU early next week, which should give the GBP support.

In Ghana, the COCOBOD issued a statement commenting on the accusations of nepotism, describing them as baseless and untrue. Joseph Seth Aidoo Junior, who is the focus of the accusations, is neither (as claimed) the son of COCOBOD CEO Joseph Aidoo, nor is he in any way related to him.

Nov 19 - Sugar group Tereos stays in the red despite strong core earnings 
French sugar and ethanol maker Tereos on Wednesday reported a net loss in the first half of 2020/21, while the group's core earnings more than doubled, helped by a rise in European sugar prices, larger sales in Brazil, and a strong alcohol market. Tereos, the world's second-largest sugar producer by volume, has been grappling with low prices after the end of European sugar quotas in 2017 but earnings have been improving as prices rebounded.

  Nov 19 - Ghana 2020/21 cocoa arrivals down 10.1% by Oct. 29 - Cocobod 
Ghana's graded and sealed (G&S) cocoa arrivals stood at 116,141 tonnes as of Oct. 29 since the start of this year's harvest on Oct. 1, down from 128,514 tonnes the previous season, figures from marketing board Cocobod showed on Wednesday. G&S is cocoa that has been quality checked and sealed in bags by Cocobod and is ready to be shipped.

Nov 19 - Coffee losses reported in Honduras due to Hurricane Eta 
The devastation caused by Hurricane Eta earlier this month hit the Honduran coffee sector hard, causing farmers to lose tens of thousands of bags of beans that would normally be exported, a senior industry official told Reuters on Wednesday. Following an almost two-week evaluation of affected plantations, national coffee institute IHCAFE estimated that destroyed trees and damaged infrastructure will cut output by 89,340 bags. 

Nov 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

London remained on the gas pedal and gained again, yet again by +48 GBP. The Mar 21 stormed to a high of GBP 1712 and wiped out the 100 and 200 day averages like bugs on a windshield. The 50-day average finally braked off the high, ending above the psychological mark of GBP 1700 at GBP 1704 base Mar 21, which alone traded just under 18k lots out of a total of 45k lots. The front spread widened by 10 points (GBP 12), relatively moderate compared to the gain on the forwards - the Mar21/Mar22 spread has increased by a good GBP 65 since Friday. The rally was triggered by a return of industry participation and in particular new long positions from the speculative corner. Managed money was net short recently, but the inverse market up to Mar22 is manifesting, an incentive to rebuild a long position to compensate for the losses of the past weeks. Meanwhile, the Financial Intelligence Centre in Ghana is making serious accusations of corruption and money laundering against Ghana COCOBOD, its CEO Jospeh Aidoo and his son. The investigations are ongoing.

Nov 18 - ISO sees 2020/21 global sugar deficit of 3.5 mln T 
The International Sugar Organization said on Tuesday it was forecasting a global sugar deficit of 3.5 million tonnes in the 2020/21 season with the outlook for production downgraded. The inter-governmental body had previously forecast a much smaller deficit of 724,000 tonnes for the current season. 

Nov 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The Dec 20 date in New York, which expired yesterday, and the post-market development of the Dec 20 / March 21 spread on Friday (this "shot" to a premium of $ +270), led to an almost dramatic opening in London yesterday. March 21 opened firm, leaving a GBP 14 gap at the very beginning (1613/1627) and quickly climbing to yesterday's highs of GBP 1660. March 21 closed GBP +48 at GBP 1656, but the other dates for 2022 ended the day slightly negative. New York was much firmer, with March 21 ending the day up $70 at $2435, but one wonders why there is an exchange supervisory authority and why an expiring Dec 20 date can end the day up $288 with 49 lots of volume. In New York there is a position limit of 1000 lots, compared to 4,715 lots of open interest and "only" 1,224 lots of certified stocks yesterday. Given these differences, it is therefore no wonder that some market participants do not let their "counterparts" out of their positions. It remains to be seen how the Algos / Funds will react to yesterday's development.

Nov 17 - Coffee speculators switch to net short position of 304 contracts latest week 
Coffee speculators on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) switched to a net short position of 304 contracts in the latest week, cutting 2,906 contracts, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Monday. Cocoa speculators trimmed their net short position by 503 contracts to 6,275 in the week ended Nov. 10. ICE sugar speculators cut their net long position by 954 contracts to 190,429 in the week, and cotton speculators cut net their long positions by 3,667 contracts to 53,209.

 
 
Nov 17 - France slashes sugar beet crop forecast on disease, drought 
France's farm ministry on Monday cut by 10% its forecast for the country's ongoing sugar beet harvest as it factored in further effects of crop disease and drought. This year's sugar beet crop was now projected at 27.2 million tonnes, down from 30.5 million expected last month and 28% below 2019 output, the ministry said in a monthly crop report.

 Nov 17 - German association sees falling sugar output this season 
Germany's refined sugar production from beets in the current 2020/21 season is forecast to fall to about 4.10 million tonnes from 4.23 million tonnes last season, Germany's sugar industry association WVZ said on Monday in its third harvest forecast. This was down from 4.17 million tonnes in the association’s second forecast in October.

 
Nov 17 - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers concerned about early Harmattan winds 
Above-average rainfall last week in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa regions would support the final stage of the October-to-March main crop, farmers said on Monday, adding that early dry Harmattan winds could be a concern for the crops. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, has entered the mid-November to March dry season, when downpours are scarce. 

Nov 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

As if the copy/paste combination is jammed: Friday was a copy of Thursday. Opening GBP -14, weak as expected, pressure from speculative sales, support on the lows at GBP 1589 (vs. 1588) basis Mar 21. The industry took advantage of this and accompanied the market with partial cover. Front spreads remained (virtually) unchanged (Dec/Mar -16; Mar/May 15), closing unchanged at GBP 1608 (GBP -3) Mar21. Even the volume remained almost the same, although the situation is expected to return to normal soon (around 20k lots). On balance, there seems to be general uncertainty, partly certainly due to the uncertain political situation at the source and the omnipresent pandemic. In Côte d'Ivoire, the government and opposition smoked the peace pipe, but the previously announced demands for the release of opposition leader N'Guessan (imprisoned for conspiracy against national security) went ignored.

Nov 16 - ICE Dec white sugar delivery seen at 618,300 tonnes 
A total of 618,300 tonnes of white sugar is expected to be tendered against the December white sugar contract which expired on Friday, trade sources said. The full breakdown by origin was not immediately available but sugar from Brazil and Guatemala is expected to be included. 

Nov 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Already in the morning the market came under pressure. Mar 21 lost up to GBP 30 and reached lows of GBP 1590, mainly due to spread selling at low volumes. By midday, just 2000 contracts had changed hands. Further liquidation of specs in NY also brought light pressure, but in the end this was not enough. On balance, London closed its doors yet again unchanged (Mar 21 at GBP 1611, +/- 0). In this context, the origin certainly plays a role as well: indeed, the elders in Côte d'Ivoire reach out their hands and vow to work for peace in the country as the highest good before all other interests. But protests continue, also in neighboring states such as Guinea and Nigeria, which may well inspire the bulls. Nevertheless, the differentials are still under pressure, since despite everything cocoa is available in sufficient quantities, here and there.

Nov 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A firm British Pound at least dampened the expected fixed opening, a plus of GBP 20 was announced, March 21 was opened with GBP +10. Over the rest of the day the market consolidated in a GBP 20 range (High GBP 1628/ Low GBP 1608) with low turnover. Closing March 21 GBP -3 at GBP 1611, with official Ivorian channels reporting 85 deaths related to this year's election. President Ouattara met yesterday with opposition leader Bedie in Abidjan for initial talks to discuss the current tense situation in the country. Both agree that the restoration of order and long-term peace must be the top priority at this time

Nov 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The gains of the previous day were wiped out yesterday. The market came under pressure in the morning, helped by an increasingly firm British pound. The nearbys traded in a substantial range of GBP 46 basis Mar21, testing support at GBP 1600, but ended up at GBP 1612 basis Mar 21 (-27). We are eagerly awaiting today's opening in London, which is expected to be firmer by GBP 20, and which may be countered by a further firmer GBP (0.8876 against the EUR). From origin, we continue to achieve positive key figures: Côte d'Ivoire reports 4% higher grinding figures than in the previous year, 49tmt by the end of October (total capacity 712tmt). Meanwhile, French Foreign Minister Le Drian is calling for rapid action from the Ivorian government to calm the tensions. Offers of dialogue with the opposition "went in the right direction".

Nov 11 - India revives plans to offer incentives for 6 mln tonnes sugar exports
India has revived a proposal to get sugar mills to export 6 million tonnes of the sweetener by incentivising overseas sales in the 2020/21 season, the third year in a row, as part of efforts to cut surplus stocks and prop up local prices, two government sources said. As late as a few weeks ago India was considering giving incentives for sugar exports, but a delay in any announcement - made before Oct. 1 in the previous two years - prompted local mills and global traders to believe that the world's No. 1 consumer of the commodity has dropped plans to subsidise sugar exports this year.

Nov 11 - Ivory Coast cocoa purchases hit again by post-election unrest
Barricades erected by opponents of Ivory Coast's president in protest at last month's disputed election have forced cocoa middlemen in western regions to reduce their purchases of beans, buyers said on Tuesday. Bean arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, fell by half early last week in the days after the Oct. 31 presidential election, when clashes in the centre of the country killed more than 10 people.
 
 
 

 

Nov 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The positive news about the testing of a Covid-19 vaccine and the hope of a return to normality (or rather Normality 2.0) did not only boost the stock markets. Cocoa was upbeat yesterday, at least to some extent. March 21 peaked at just under GBP 40, peaking at GBP 1648, closing March 21 at GBP +28 at GBP 1639. New York was hit much harder, ending the day at $ +53 at $ 2391. The generally positive environment, coupled with significantly oversold markets and the significant reduction in speculative long positions, certainly added fuel to yesterday's trading. With Managed Money in a near-balanced position, the next move will depend on its strategic direction. Purchases in Ghana in the first 3 weeks of the new crop were 78,068mt vs. 81,050mt from the previous year.

Nov 10 - Brazil swamps ICE coffee exchange, putting squeeze on small producers
Brazil is tightening its grip on the global arabica coffee market as its beans surge into ICE Futures exchange warehouses for the first time, a move that could squeeze small producers out of the market and put pressure on benchmark prices. The world's top grower has long been able to supply large volumes of affordable coffee for the mass market as mechanized harvesting and cheaper processing methods keep its production costs below those of its rivals. 

Nov 10 - Wine sector needs more EU support in 'COVID winter' - farm group
The European Union's wine sector will need more support measures to survive renewed coronavirus measures that are slashing out-of-home demand like earlier this year, farming lobby Copa-Cogeca said on Monday. The Europe's wine sector has lost some 10-15% of demand volumes this year due to restrictions affecting bars, restaurants, events and travel, Thierry Coste, a French wine producer and chairman of Copa-Cogeca's wine committee, said.

Nov 10 - Most Ivory Coast farmers welcome rains as dry winds approach
Above average rains last week in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa regions should strengthen the October-to-March main crop before the arrival of dry seasonal winds, farmers said on Monday. The late downpours boosted soil moisture for most farmers as Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, prepares for the dry season that runs from mid-November to March.
 

Nov 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

At the end of the week, the market came to rest and ended its downward trend for the time being. Nearly all contracts consolidated close to psychological support at GBP 1600 and the Mar 21 date closed at GBP 1611 (+2), just under GBP 30 above the lows three days earlier, the Commitment of Traders' reporting deadline. Those draw a coherent picture - the net long position shrank further by a total of almost 19k lots to 46k lots net long. The Managed Money Position decreased by 17k lots and is now in neutral territory at around 2k lots net long. Côte d'Ivoire is not yet at peace, even though the new/old government is now resorting to harsher methods to suffocate the resistance and detains the opposition leaders. After Maurice Guikahue (PDCI), Pascal Affi N'Guessan (FPI) was arrested. This has little impact on the cocoa imports - 485 tmt / 8% above last year's figure at the end of the week.

Nov 06 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 2-6 November 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed a mixed response as only Indonesia was reported with an increase.

- In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,335 per Mt.

- Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% and 2% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,065 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,717 per Mt for white pepper. The increase of Indonesia pepper could be contributed to the strengthening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (IDR 14,529 @ USD 1), an appreciation by 1% recorded.

- Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable with a marginal increase and was traded at an average of USD 2,123 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,569 per Mt for white pepper.

- Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported stable at an average of USD 2,215 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,041 per Mt for white pepper.

- Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,899 per Mt.

- International market also showed a mixed response as India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,603 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% and 2% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,520 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,369 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged.

Nov 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Overnight news from Côte d'Ivoire about the short-term slump in arrivals Monday to Wednesday (29kmt vs. 62kmt in 19/20) due to the current tense situation, as well as price hedging by the industry and coverage against the short position, resulted in a firm opening and yesterday's highs of GBP 1624. This momentum, with just 2000 lots of turnover by midday, was short-lived. Further liquidations of the managed money specs led to a correction and lows of GBP 1589. End of the song...Closing prices virtually unchanged across the board. March 21 ended the day with GBP +3 at GBP 1609, so again no new information.

Nov 06 - Brazil's new coffee crop seen falling between 14% and 21% - Itau BBA
Coffee output in the world's largest producer and exporter is seen falling between 14% and 21% next season (2021-22) due to below-average rains and the change on arabica production cycle to an 'off-year', investment bank Itau BBA said on Thursday. The bank's agricultural research team sees Brazil's coffee production in a range between 53.6-58.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021-22 (July-June) compared to 67.9 million bags projected by the USDA for the current crop. 

Nov 06 - Election violence hits Ivory Coast cocoa supply chain
Cocoa bean arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast fell this week because of a violent political standoff following a disputed presidential election in the world's top growing nation, exporters said on Thursday. The political crisis in the West African nation escalated this week after several opposition leaders who called for a boycott of the Oct. 31 presidential election, rejected President Alassane Ouattara's victory and formed a parallel government.

Nov 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With modest turnover, London attempted to accelerate the recent slowdown in the downward trend. The Lows reached the GBP 1589 base Mar21 level, only 12 points above the levels at which the rally began in early August. But it remained an attempt with almost unchanged closing quotations. Mar 21 ended the day at GBP 1606 (-1). The situation in Côte d'Ivoire remains uncertain. Ambitions to form an oppositional government appear to be failing. In the evening, Guillaume Soro, who had been excluded from the candidacy, called on the country's military to disobey President Ouattara, currently the proclaimed winner of the elections, and thus "restore the constitution".

Nov 05 - France's Cristal Union expects up to 30% drop in sugar beet volumes 
France's second-largest sugar producer Cristal Union expects its sugar beet harvest to drop by as much as 30% this year because of crop disease and drought, the cooperative group's chairman said in an interview with farming newspaper Le Betteravier. Jaundice spread by aphids has caused severe damage to sugar beet fields in parts of France, the European Union's largest sugar producer, while summer drought has added to crop stress.

 
Nov 05 - China trade body urges 'retrospective tariffs' on Australian wine
A Chinese drinks group has called for retrospective tariffs on Australian wine imports, Australian winemaker Treasury Wine Estates Ltd said on Wednesday, amid escalating trade and diplomatic tensions between Beijing and Canberra. Treasury, the world's largest listed winemaker, said in a filing it had been notified that the China Alcoholic Drinks Association (CADA) wrote to China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) requesting tariffs on Australian wine as part of a previously announced anti-dumping probe.
 
 

Nov 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

For the fifth day in a row and a correction of over GBP 120, further Managed Mo-ney sales put the market under further pressure right at the beginning. However, the futures market consolidated in a GBP 10 range for most of the day before industry price hedges provided a slightly firmer close at the end of the day. March 21 ended the day with GBP +14 at GBP 1607 and official results were reported from the Ivory Coast. According to them, the incumbent President Ouattara won the election by a clear 94%. There were also reports of isolated unrest and police operations in front of the homes of some opposition members. They are accused of having declared an illegal counter government.

Nov 04 - Nigeria's unrest chokes cocoa shipments
Nigerian protests against police brutality, coupled with curfews to quell unrest, have drastically slowed cocoa shipments to the Lagos port, adding to problems for farmers grappling with falling prices, an industry body said. Nigeria, the world's fifth biggest cocoa grower, had barely recovered from the impact of lockdowns to curb the novel coronavirus when violence sparked by the protests erupted last month, forcing several states to restrict movement.

Nov 04 - Ukraine sugar union keeps 2020/21 sugar output forecast at 1.2 mln T 
Ukraine's sugar producers' union Ukrtsukor said on Tuesday it was keeping its 2020/21 white sugar production forecast unchanged at around 1.2 million tonnes. The union said on Monday sugar refineries had produced 480,300 tonnes of white sugar from 3.66 million tonnes of sugar beet so far in the 2020/21 harvest year, which began on Sept. 1.

Nov 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

While the situation remained relatively calm around Ouattara's election victory (confirmed today) in Côte d'Ivoire, selling pressure continued. The expected GBP 10 firmer opening did not manifest. In fact, further Managed Money / Fund liquidation put the quotations directly under pressure. The bulk of the long position had been built up at levels around GBP 1750/1800, so that the funds have been ''out of money'' for weeks and apparently pulling the plug. The Mar 21 lost almost GBP 30 at its peak and closed at GBP 1593 (-24) - are we heading for the July lows (GBP 1525)? At least they are coming much closer. And with the relative calm at the origin, the solid arrivals (+12% vs. VJ, here surely a part carry over), the emerging surplus, the pandemic and related economic expectations, the bulls seem to have fallen silent. The industry accompanied the market yesterday with further partial cover.

Nov 03 - Costa Rica coffee exports surge 77% in October
Costa Rica's coffee exports soared 77% year-on-year in October, at the start of the coffee production season, according to data released by national coffee institute ICAFE on Monday. Costa Rica exported 17,416 60-kilogram bags in October, some 7,585 bags more than during the same period last year.

 Nov 03 - Ivory Coast weather supports cocoa, political turmoil weighs
Above average rainfall last week in Ivory Coast's cocoa growing regions is expected to boost the yield of the October-to-March main crop, farmers said on Monday. But fears of political turmoil after Saturday's disputed presidential election in the world's top cocoa growing region kept farmers away from plantations and slowed purchases.

Nov 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

As in the past 4 days, the selling pressure of Managed Money Specs continued on Friday. March 21 stopped only briefly at the named supports at GBP 1627 (double down) and GBP 1619 (August Lows) and traded down to lows of GBP 1605. Closing price GBP -16 at GBP 1617. GBP 1600 should continue to serve as the next support. London lost 5% last week / NY -7%, with monthly losses of 8.2% and 8.9% respectively in NY. Saturday's elections in Côte d'Ivoire saw isolated riots near the capital Yamoussoukro, among other places, resulting in at least 5 confirmed fatalities and numerous injuries. An official result is expected today, but whether this will be recognised by the opposition is rather unlikely. Independent election observers report a closure of about 20% of polling stations and the burning of ballot boxes / ballot papers.

Oct 30 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 25-30 October 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed a mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable with a marginal decrease at an average of USD 4,363 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported stable with a marginal increase averaging at USD 2,042 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,641 per Mt for white pepper as the country took a three-days break celebrating the Birthday of Prophet Muhammad. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with 3% and 2% deficit respectively as opposed to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,119 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,562 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 4% and 3% respectively as opposed to the previous week to an average of USD 2,223 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,041 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with 3% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,919 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 3% when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 4,638 per Mt locally.
- International market also showed a mixed response. India black pepper was reported stable with a marginal decrease at an average of USD 4,634 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported steady with a marginal increase at an average of USD 2,492 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,282 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with 1% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week to an average of USD 3,675 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,900 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 2% respectively when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,655 per Mt, USD 2,736 per Mt and USD 4,225 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 3% as opposed to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 4,838 per Mt internationally.

Oct 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After losses of almost GBP 90 within a few days, at least the daily volatility took a day off. The downward movement continued, despite the reduced speed. March 21 was trading in a range of GBP 18 (High GBP 1650 / Low GBP 1632) and closed near the lows at GBP 1633 / GBP -10. An unnamed source from the CCC reported major problems in marketing the next mid crop where relatively few sales took place. Fitting for tomorrow's elections in Côte d'Ivoire, the predecessor of the current president warned of a "catastrophe" if he did not withdraw his candidacy. The government will deploy about 35,000 soldiers to secure the elections. It remains to be seen whether the boycott called by the opposition will take place.

Oct 30 - Big speculative bet on raw sugar seen spurring production

A huge bullish position held by hedge funds and money managers in raw sugar futures in New York is convincing global producers to boost production, a move analysts say could produce a glut before long due to persistently weak demand. Speculators hold a long position of roughly 200,000 contracts on ICE Futures, the highest since 2016. The high prices are expected to stimulate output in countries including top producer Brazil, which could put out another record crop of 38 million tonnes.

 Oct 30 - Tereos says most of large Brazil sugar stocks already sold

French sugar maker Tereos SA, which has a large operation in top producer Brazil, believes that a big part of historically high sugar stocks currently sitting in Brazilian warehouses has already been sold and would be shipped soon. Gustavo Segantini, sales director at Tereos' Brazil unit, said at an international conference on Thursday that there is not a lot of sugar yet to be sold in Brazil in the moment, foreseeing a tight domestic market in the country in the between-harvest period from December to March that could lead to record local prices.

 Oct 30 - Ivory Coast struggling to sell 2020/21 cocoa mid-crop - sources
A pandemic-linked drop in global cocoa demand is hindering Ivory Coast's efforts to sell the remaining 500,000 tonnes of cocoa beans from its 2020/21 interim harvest, sources in the cocoa regulator (CCC) and local industry said. Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, sells 70-80% of its cocoa crop to exporters and chocolate makers via the CCC and sets a guaranteed price for producers before the start of the harvest in October.

 Oct 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Following a weak opening, the market came under strong selling pressure right at the beginning. Post-market hedging pressure from the previous day, speculative selling and a generally negative macroeconomic picture (Bloomberg Commodity Index -2%) led to a correction from GBP 44 and the subsequent low of GBP 1640. Closing price March 21 GBP -41 to GBP 1643 and thus back to the "old" region under GBP 1650 from exactly 2 weeks ago. The next supports should start with the double down at GBP 1630 and the lows of August GBP 1619.

Oct 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday brought the biggest loss in a month with -1.7%. The Mar21 repeatedly and unsuccessfully tested technical support on the 100-day moving average (GBP 1669), where the short rally started two weeks ago and which continues to provide the next technical support. Mar21closed at GBP -29 at GBP 1684, and it remains to be seen whether the anticipated opening in London at GBP -13 will put the market under sustained pressure. Perhaps we will see a breather here before the election in IVC on Saturday - there the opposition is calling for a boycott and the president accuses his opponents of gambling on a coup.  Nigeria reports a cautious ease in protests against police violence, but normality in the cocoa sector is still far away.

Oct 28 - Brazil sugar output, cane crop seen falling next season due to dry weather 
Adverse climate conditions in most of Brazil in recent months will hurt sugar cane development and lead to a smaller crush and sugar production in the new season next year, sugar and ethanol consultancy Datagro projected on Tuesday. Datagro's chief analyst Plinio Nastari said he expects the center-south cane crop to reach 575 million tonnes in the April 2021 to March 2022 season compared to 596 million tonnes in the current crop.

 
Oct 28 - Global wine output squeezed as coronavirus crisis weighs 
Global wine production will remain below the five-year average this year, dented by low South American volumes and European Union output caps after the coronavirus crisis sent sales sliding, an international industry body said on Tuesday. In initial estimates for 2020 output, the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) pegged this year's world wine production at between 253.9 million and 262.2 million hectolitres (mhl), with a mid range estimate at 258 mhl. Malaysian palm oil futures fell for a second straight session, tracking weaker rival oils and on profit booking after hitting a one-month high earlier this week.

Oct 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With the upcoming elections in Côte d'Ivoire next Saturday, the US elections next Tuesday and further brexite "uncertainties", almost all fundamental market participants continued to hold back yesterday. March 21 traded, at low volumes, at GBP 1723 to new highs of the ultimately seen "mini uptrend". Close March 21 GBP +10 at GBP 1713.The lack of volume and 2 weeks of significant long position reductions may have been the trigger for yesterday's trading and will certainly give us another volatile week (GBP 100 up or down would be both possible). The industry seems well covered and, like everyone else, is waiting for this "10 day week" to end.

Oct 27 - Ivory Coast cocoa exporters seek reduced payments to regulator
Cocoa exporters in top grower Ivory Coast are negotiating with the country's regulator to try to reduce a premium they pay for export contracts, citing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the sector, industry sources said. The exporters want to reduce the premium, known as the country differential, they pay the Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) from around $95 to less than $65 per tonne to avoid speculation on the price of contracts with counterparties overseas and eventual defaults, the sources said. 

 
Oct 27 - Ethanol use seen growing quickly in India, not as much in Thailand
Ethanol production and consumption in India, the world's third largest fuel market, is expected to increase quickly in coming years as the government seems keen to push the industry to higher blend rates, an industry official said on Monday. Abinash Verma, general director for Indian Sugar Millers Association (ISMA), said plants in the country are expected to boost ethanol production from 1.9 billion liters (0.5 billion gallons) in 2020 to 3 billion liters in 2021 on the way to meet a government target of adding 10% of ethanol to gasoline by 2022. That would require an ethanol volume of 5.5 billion liters.
 
 

Oct 26 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Although the previous day's upward trend continued almost unchecked, albeit with lower volumes. March 21 searched and found resistance at GBP 1700 and ended the day at GBP 1702 / GBP +8, the highest close after almost 3 weeks. Commitment of Traders show a further rapid reduction of the speculative long position with a reduction of 15,011 lots. Combined, both markets now stand at 57,662 lots net long. Within Managed Money the reduction was relatively evenly distributed, but in London just under 3k of fresh shorts were added. According to Reuters, major international exporters have stopped their current purchases. The reason for this is a dispute with the CCC regarding the "origin differential", which is considered too high. This should at least slow down or only delay the pressure to hedge on the market. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as of 25 October are at 317,000mt vs. 287,000 from 19/20 (+10.4%).

Oct 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Most fundamental market participants remain on a wait-and-see basis with regard to the further brexit negotiations and the elections in Côte d'Ivoire. March 21 broke through the previous week's highs and traded to a high of GBP 1695, but the 200-day moving average (GBP 1693) and the psychological mark of GBP 1700 provided resistance. Closing price March 21 GBP +33 at GBP 1694. The flow of arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire still seems to be problem-free, but the violent protests have not "yet" reached Abidjan or San Pedro where the cocoa is finally shipped / processed.

Oct 23 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 19-23 October 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed a mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable with a marginal increase at an average of USD 4,383 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 4% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,039 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,636 per Mt. The decrease of Indonesian white pepper could be contributed to the ample supply in local market. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with 3% and 2% deficit respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,180 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,626 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 2% and 4% respectively as opposed to the previous week to an average of USD 2,131 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,958 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with 2% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,996 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with significant increase of 8% when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 4,513 per Mt Locally.
- International market also showed a mixed response. India black pepper was reported stable with a marginal increase at an average of USD 4,655 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 4% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,488 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,276 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with 2% and 1% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,725 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,940 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 7% as opposed to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 4,713 per Mt internationally.

Oct 23 - Indian sugar export subsidy decision unlikely before state elections - sources
Indian sugar export subsidies will not be renewed before state elections finish next month, trade and government sources said on Thursday, with New Delhi examining the level of subsidy needed to encourage shipments of surplus sugar. Subsidies are set for one year from Oct. 1. The government has extended the 2019/20 subsidy until December, but in practice exporters will not receive more support as they have already met their 6 million tonne export quota under the scheme.
 
 

Oct 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A revived British pound could not put enough pressure on the market to prevent a firm opening, but it also avoided a too large fortification. Once again, no significant volume was achieved: the Mar 21 took the largest volume of all (~7.4k lots/~16.5k lots), moving in a range of just GBP 27 and closing with a slight gain of GBP +9 at GBP 1661. The hesitancy is generally attributed to the elections in Côte d'Ivoire at the end of next week. Here the government is inviting its opposition to dialogue, while further east in Nigeria the protests against police violence are escalating despite curfew and unfortunately also claimed casualties yesterday.

Oct 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With just 15,000 lots of sales, the lowest volume for a month, it was a slow day in the cocoa business. The weakness of the British pound was almost completely ignored and March 21, at its peak, gave up GBP 25 of its gains from the previous day. Closing March 21 GBP -21 at GBP 1652, the Dec / March spread hit another 16 month low at GBP -9.

Oct 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The strengthening that had already begun on Friday evening continued yesterday. One reason for this may