Softs News

Jun 04 - Cargill halts public reporting of quarterly results 
Privately held U.S. agribusiness Cargill Inc said on Wednesday it will no longer issue public releases on quarterly earnings, halting the disclosures that the company has provided since 1996. Cargill, the largest privately held company in the United States, said it will continue to publicly disclose annual revenue and the percent of operating cash flow that is reinvested back into the company.

 Jun 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the correction on the previous day, calm returned to the markets, understandably and with low volumes. The Sep 20 in LDN traded around the GBP 1800 level, marking a new low of GBP 1785 but ending the day almost unchanged at GBP 1797 / GBP +3. The Jul / Sep 20 spread widened by GBP +12 (GBP +117) and also recovered from the previous day. In New York activity was also in spreads and further roll of the index funds (20k spreads were traded in 2 days) weakened the structure there. Fundamentally, the Silly Season is in full swing. Here the Q2 grindings are keeping the market busy. We are not yet throwing a number into the ring...

Jun 04 - Global sugar supply balance to shift to surplus on record Brazil crop 
The global sugar supply balance is seen shifting from a deficit to a small surplus in the new season starting in October due to rising production in Brazil and India, and soft demand amid the coronavirus outbreak, broker and analyst INTL FCStone said on Wednesday. FCStone slashed its view for a supply deficit in the current global season to 3.1 million tonnes from 8.6 million tonnes seen in March, and projected a surplus of 0.5 million tonnes for the next season (2020-21, Oct-Sept). 

  Jun 04 - Coffee harvest by Brazil co-op Cooxupe at 8.9% of planted area by May 29 
Brazil's largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe said on Thursday its producers had harvested 8.9% of the planted area by May 29 compared with 11.7% in the same period of 2019. Compared with 2018, a year also marked by high productivity levels in arabic coffee just like in 2020, the harvest is slightly advanced. Two years ago, Cooxupe producers had harvested 8.05% of the planted area.

Jun 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Just in time for the opening NY at 2 pm, liquidations of the longs put pressure on the quotations. Sep 20 in London was, after a slightly firmer opening, already on its way towards GBP 1800 and broke through the GBP 1800 barrier / low GBP 1786 in the afternoon, closing GBP -50 at GBP 1794 (lowest closing price since the end of April). NY lost more significantly at $ -73 / closing $ 2382. Volume was, exceptionally, quite respectable. Yesterday marked the first day of the "roll period" of the index funds in New York, where the Jul / Sep 20 spread went from $+50 to $+18, this coupled with the sales of speculative longs fueled the downward movement. Due to yesterday's movement, we do not yet see a trend reversal or a breakout from the current no man's land.

Jun 03 - ISO sees global sugar deficit of 9.3 mln T in 2019/20 
The International Sugar Organization on Tuesday forecast a global sugar deficit of 9.3 million tonnes in the 2019/20 season, the largest shortfall in 11 years, although the figure did not include a provision for the coronavirus impact. In February, the agency forecast a deficit of 9.44 million tonnes.     

Jun 03 - India's sugar output could rise nearly 3.5% from previous forecast 
India's sugar output is expected to rise nearly 1.89% this year from a previous forecast as the country-wide lockdown to stem the spread of the new coronavirus has led to the closure of small jaggery making units, diverting more cane to sugar mills. Mills in India, the world's biggest sugar producer, are likely to churn out around 27 million tonnes of the sweetener in the current season that began on Oct. 1, 2019, up from the previous forecast of 26.5 million tonnes, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said in a statement.
 

Jun 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With a firmer pound sterling against the US dollar, the market opened slightly negative and, with minimal volume, had lost GBP 15 by midday, when NY brought support. The remainder of the day saw a narrow range. Sep20 traded just 3,831 lots before closing at GBP +4 at GBP 1844. The front spread has narrowed slightly, but is still trading at a triple-digit premium of +112. Despite the further inverse structure, managed money "activism" is noticeably decreasing - it will probably take more (outright and/or fundamental) momentum to inject life back into the market... it does not help there that purchases in Ghana with 721k mt vs. 744k mt last year are still lagging behind, although the arrivals of neighbouring Côte d'Ivoire in the past week are 8k mt above the same week last year (but overall still -5.9% below last year).

Jun 02 - Ivory Coast rains bring relief to cocoa farmers 
Above-average rains last week in most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions could boost the last stage of the April-to-September cocoa mid-crop, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is currently in its rainy season, which runs from mid-March to late October, when there are meant to be regular downpours.

  Jun 02 - Costa Rican coffee exports dip 13% year-on-year in May 
Costa Rican coffee exports fell 13% in May, according to national coffee institute ICAFE data released on Monday, likely due to advance purchases in April as buyers sought to ease expected logistical jams from coronavirus disruptions. Coffee shipments totaled 143,781 60-kg bags in May, compared to 165,214 bags in the same month last year, the data showed.

Jun 02 - Honduran coffee exports drop nearly 21% y/y in May 
Honduran coffee exports dropped 20.9% year-on-year in May after farmers cut production because of low prices for their crop on the world market as well as a drought, the country's national coffee institute IHCAFE reported on Monday. Central America's top coffee producer and exporter reported shipments of 729,957.83 60-kilogram bags for the month, compared to 922,396.76 bags in the same month a year earlier, according to preliminary reports from IHCAFE.

Jun 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

As so often lately, most of the activity took place in the afternoon. In the morning, London traded in a GBP 6 range in non-existent volumes. In the afternoon, profit taking on short-term specs tested the GBP 1800 level (Low GBP 1808) before buy orders in the afternoon led to a firmer afternoon session. Sep 20 ended the day at the high of GBP 1840 / GBP +6. Commitment of traders as of 26.05. does not bring any new insights either. The combined long position decreased by 2,181 lots (London +25, NY -2205) to 95,941 lots net long. The ICCO reduced its deficit expectation by a conservative 5000 mt to now 80,000 mt deficit of the current crop.

Jun 01 - ICCO sees global cocoa deficit of 80,000 T in 2019/20 
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) on Friday forecast a global cocoa deficit of 80,000 tonnes in the 2019/20 season, which runs from October to September, slightly below its previous projection of 85,000 tonnes. In its latest quarterly update, the inter-governmental body, cut its forecast for global production by 74,000 tonnes to 4.75 million, although the impact was more than offset by a 78,000 tonne cut in its global grindings outlook to 4.78 million. 

May 29 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 25-29 May 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed mixed response with a rather positive outlook as only Indonesia's Muntok white pepper was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,043 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 1,728 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,913 per Mt. Malaysia's black and white peppers were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with significant increase of 17% and 11% respectively as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,093 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,939 per Mt for white pepper. The increase of Viet Nam price could be contributed to the significant increase of China's pepper demand after China's lock down ended. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported steady and was traded at an average of USD 2,733 per Mt. China white pepper was also reported stable averaging at USD 4,114 per Mt.
- International market showed similar mixed response with a rather positive outlook. India black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,308 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,133 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,468 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Following the local market trend, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 7%, 7% and 10% respectively as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,440 per Mt, USD 2,482 per Mt and USD 3,526 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 4,309 per Mt.
- US market was reported with a slow movement of several origins. Despite the time of year usually saw more stock of Sarawak from new crop, it was reported to be very quiet. Furthermore, as Indonesia and Brazil offered limited amount with no possible prompt shipment, Viet Nam was able to supply a large quantity to market. US stock for the 3rd and 4th quarters are yet to be covered while buyers are anxious on low price contract.

May 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday, the psychological barrier at GBP 1800 and the 50 day moving average there provided support right in the early morning. The Sep 20 marked a low of GBP 1799 yesterday and speculative buying in the afternoon then provided a much firmer afternoon's trading. Sep 20 ended the day with GBP +27 at GBP 1834. New York was much more active, gaining $ 66 and ending the day at $ 2387. Bandwidth yesterday LDN GBP 38, New York $ 92! The LDN / NY arbitrage extended accordingly to GBP - 103. It is currently difficult to find a strategy behind the specs / funds activities. Seller one day and buyer the next. London lost 5% this month and New York "only" 2%.

May 29 - China lets safeguard on sugar imports to expire - industry group 
The Chinese government decided not to renew a safeguard on sugar imports in place since 2017, letting the measure expire on Friday, which will lead to a substantial decrease in the import tariff for sugar entering the Asian nation. According to Unica, a Brazilian sugar industry group, the decision by China's government to not renew the safeguard is the result of a negotiation between the two countries, in which Brazil canceled a request for a panel to investigate the safeguard at the World Trade Organization (WTO).

May 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The expected firm opening after the pound sterling strengthened against the US dollar was poor and was soon cleared. Low volume slowed the pace of events until the afternoon. With the opening in NY, both markets weakened and the GBP fell even more sharply. London tested new 5-week lows at 1803 (Sep20). With around 3000 contracts traded, Sep20 closed at GBP 1807 (-11). The restrained but noticeable downward trend of the past weeks seems to be continuing. The question remains as to how long it will do so. Next support would be the near 50-day moving average (GBP 1800). Overall, we are currently rather at the lower end of the recent range. In spite of bearish signals, such as generally expected surpluses, buying is becoming more probable in the unanimous opinion. What else? In Ghana, the Ministry of Agriculture may now take over the COCOBOD operations, according to the local press.

May 28 - COFCO to turn Santos port terminal from grains to sugar – statement
Chinese commodities trader COFCO International said on Wednesday it will use its 12A terminal in Brazil's Santos port to move sugar instead of grains beginning in July and through the end of the year. COFCO, which manages four sugar and ethanol facilities in Brazil, said the change was a result of higher sugar production in the country this year.

 May 28 - Nordzucker cuts losses, says post-lockdown sugar market to stabilize
Germany's second largest sugar refiner Nordzucker reported reduced losses on Wednesday and said it hopes to return to profit in its new financial year as easing coronavirus lockdowns stabilise sugar prices and demand. Following benefits from cost-cutting and efficiency programmes, Nordzucker posted a 15 million euro ($16.4 million) net loss for its 2019/20 financial year to end-February against a loss of 36 million euros in the previous year. 
 

May 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

On the first day of trading, after the long weekend, the market completely gave up Friday's gains. Sep 20 traded on lows of GBP 1815 with 2 hours to go, ending the day negatively at GBP -35 at GBP 1818. Slight selling pressure and mainly a strong British pound vs. the US dollar were the triggers for the weak start to the short week. The Jul / Sep 20 spread traded yesterday at GBP +138 to a new high.  Sep / Dec 20 weakened by almost GBP 20 at GBP +91. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as at 24.05. were down 6.3% on the previous year at 1.837 million tonnes. Purchases in Ghana are at roughly the same level as last year.

May 27 - Brazil sugar production up 55% in May; ethanol sales recover
Brazil's centre-south region produced 2.5 million tonnes of sugar in the first half of May, up 55% from a year earlier, as mills continued to favor sweetener production over ethanol. According to industry group Unica, mills allocated 47.2% of the cane to sugar production in the period, versus 36% a year earlier. But hydrous ethanol sales fell less than in April.
 

May 26 - Ivory Coast rejects report showing rising child labour in cocoa sector 

Ivory Coast said on Monday it would refuse to validate a U.S.-sponsored report due to be published next month about child labour in its cocoa sector unless the researchers and U.S. government accept changes to the methodology. The report, which is funded by the U.S. Labor Department and scheduled to be released on June 29, found the use of child labour on cocoa farms in Ivory Coast and Ghana has risen over the past decade despite industry promises to reduce it, according to a draft reviewed by Reuters. 

May 26 - More rains needed to boost Ivory Coast cocoa mid-crop - farmers
Ivory Coast's April-to-September cocoa mid-crop will need more rain to strengthen the last stage of its development after most cocoa regions had well below average rainfall last week, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is currently in its rainy season, which runs from mid-March to late October when there are meant to be regular downpours.
 
 

May 25 - Reminder : Ascension Day on Thursday, the end of Ramadan on Friday and a Bank Holiday on Monday (LDN & NY closed)

May 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Despite the bridge day and ahead of the long weekend in the USA and UK, both markets experienced strong support on Friday. In London, a weak British pound against the US dollar in particular led to a firm opening. Slight selling pressure came to an end around the 200-day moving average on the lows of GBP 1815. There was little else happening in the structure. With a total volume of just 16,000 lots, the front spread Jul/Sep20 in particular widened to +135 GBP intraday. The open interest and the agile front spread did the rest and the Sep20 increased by GBP 30 (closing GBP 1853). The net long position increased by 3,659 contracts to 98,122 lots with specs being the main contributor (+4,358 lots; 33,809 lots net long). Today both markets remain closed.

May 25 - China lets safeguard on sugar imports to expire - industry group
The Chinese government decided not to renew a safeguard on sugar imports in place since 2017, letting the measure expire on Friday, which will lead to a substantial decrease in the import tariff for sugar entering the Asian nation. According to Unica, a Brazilian sugar industry group, the decision by China's government to not renew the safeguard is the result of a negotiation between the two countries, in which Brazil canceled a request for a panel to investigate the safeguard at the World Trade Organization (WTO).

 May 25 - Raw sugar short bet on ICE futures trimmed by half, says CFTC 
Speculators reduced their net short position in raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. by almost half in the week to May 19, trimming 22,070 contracts for a total short of 23,694 contracts, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday. Raw sugar futures' prices have risen recently along with crude oil. Greater fuel demand could lead Brazilian sugar and ethanol plants to produce more of the cane-based biofuel and less of the sweetener.  

May 22 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, week 18-22 May 2020 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,036 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,719 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,933 per Mt for white pepper.  The increase of Indonesia pepper could be contributed to the strengthening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (IDR 14,831 @ USD 1). Malaysia's black and white peppers were reported stable with an average of USD 1,700 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,050 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,784 per Mt whilst Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable and unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,739 per Mt. China white pepper was also reported with a deficit, a loss of 3% were recorded when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,100 per Mt.
- International market showed similar mixed response. India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,300 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1%respectively as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,122 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,489 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable at an average of USD 2,290 per Mt, USD 2,320 per Mt and USD 3,220 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported with a 3% deficit as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,300 per Mt.

May 22 - Uganda's April Coffee Exports Rose 18% But Missed Target on Virus Disruption - DJ
  Uganda's coffee exports jumped 18% in April compared with last year, boosted by favorable weather and larger deliveries from the ongoing harvest in Africa's largest exporter of the beans, the Uganda Coffee Development Authority said Friday.
  Shipments jumped to 359,973 60-kilogram bags, compared with 305,643 bags exported in April last year. The rise in April was the fourth in a row, bringing the cumulative shipments to 2.9 million bags worth $288 million, representing a 20% jump in volume and a 19% rise in value on year.
  However, the total exports were short of the earlier projection of 400,000 bags, a factor the coffee body blamed onthe logistical disruptions due to the country's lockdown as authorities seek to halt the spread of coronavirus.
  The UCDA said Ugandan exports continue to be boosted by higher yields as younger trees enter the production phase.
  Uganda expects a bumper crop of around 5.2 million bags for the 2019-20 season, compared with 4.5 million bags last season.

 May 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Driven by selling pressure from New York, London quotations also came under pressure. With most market participants in holiday mode, only the weak local currency stopped a strong downward trend. The Sep 20 lost GBP 28 / Low GBP 1811 at times, and finally firmed slightly at the end. Closing price GBP -16 at GBP 1823 and thus above the 100 day moving average at GBP 1821, which should provide support alongside GBP 1800 (psychological barrier). New York was much weaker, closing at $ -61 at $ 2315. Arbitrage in the spot month Jul 20 gained almost GBP 50 within 2 days and is now trading at a premium LDN / NY of GBP 32.
Both markets are closed on Monday.

May 22 - Brazil coffee harvest lags as pandemic impacts fieldwork - report 
Brazilian coffee growers picked 13% of expected 2020 production by May 19, a slower pace than in the previous year and below the historical average for this time of the year, consultancy Safras & Mercado said in a report on Thursday. It said restrictions to the movement of people due to coronavirus-led lockdowns, particularly in the main robusta- producing state of Espirito Santo, caused delays in field work in that state, which impacted the overall harvest number.

May 22 - Beetle control, labor shortages top challenges for Colombia coffee - federation 
Preventing the spread of berry borer beetles and harvesting in spite of labor shortages are Colombian coffee farmers' top challenges for the remainder of 2020, the head of the country's growers' federation said. Two months of coronavirus quarantine in Colombia, the world's top producer of washed arabica beans, has complicated growers' efforts to find pickers, though farms are exempt from lockdown.

May 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Although not significant, at least in the last half hour of yesterday's day a breath of activity returned to the market. The Sep 20 marked new 4 day lows at GBP 1837 and closed close to this at GBP 1839 / GBP -17, in a GBP 25 range which was almost twice as high as in the previous days. New York was much more active and gave up the previous day's gains completely. Closing price Sep 20 $ -30 at $ 2376. All in all with thin volume. We wish you a nice holiday and if possible a long weekend. LDN & NY will be closed on Monday.

May 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday the yawning boredom continued to dominate the cocoa market. A range of GBP 15 / Sep 20 and volumes below 9,000 lots (net volume until noon not 800 lots) speaks for itself. Sep 20 ended the day with GBP +6 at GBP 1856, the Jul / Sep 20 spread firmed GBP +10, closing GBP +114. Outlook? Uncertain. Who dares the first step...Is the origin selling? Is the industry buying? Are specs returning with volume? At the moment, everything points to further consolidation, but we are happy to be surprised

May 20 - Shipping data suggests Brazil may break monthly sugar export record 
The line of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazil has more than doubled in the last week, suggesting Brazil may set a new monthly sugar export record, Plinio Nastari, the president of consultancy Datagro told Reuters. In the first two weeks of May, Brazil exported 1.57 million tonnes of sugar, already exceeding the volume shipped in the entire month of May 2019, according to government data.

May 19 - Kenya Arabica Coffee Prices Rose 66% at Auction

- Prices of arabica coffee rose 66% at an auction this week, the Nairobi Coffee Exchange said Tuesday.
  The auction price surged due to high demand for the few lower-quality grade coffee beans on offer at the tail-end of the marketing season, Daniel Mbithi, the chief executive of the Nairobi Coffee Exchange said. Last week, the auction wasn't held due to low volumes on offer.
  The auction is scheduled to close this month and reopen mid-July due to an annual break between seasons.
  The sales were held after the auction resumed online mid-April following a halt on April 2 due to coronavirus restrictions. Prices at the auction are partly relatively lower due to most dealers still familiarizing themselves with the new trading platform, according to Mr. Mbithi.
  The average price across all grades at the auction was $182.15 for a 50-kilogram bag compared with $109.58 a bag at the previous auction on May 5, the auction house said. A total of 12,399 bags were offered at this week's auction compared with 9,964 bags at the prior auction.

May 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It seems that the cocoa market can only live in extremes...Massive volatility in flat price and structure or (as yesterday) yawning boredom. Caught in a GBP 13 range it was a week's start to fall asleep and the second "Inside Day" in a row. The Sep 20 traded around the 100 day moving average at GBP 1853 and ended the day at GBP -8 at GBP 1850, at an alarmingly low volume. The Bloomberg Commodity Index gained 4% yesterday, driven by firm oil and gasoline prices. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as of 17.05 were 1.814 mn versus 1.925 mn last season (-5.8%). Ascension Day on Thursday, the end of Ramadan on Friday and a Bank Holiday on Monday (LDN & NY closed) give little reason to hope for activity BUT the cocoa market is always good for surprises.

May 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After a volatile start to the week, due to the expiry of the May 20 position, the market consolidated at current levels on Friday as well. At the beginning of the day, a weak British pound led to a slight fix to the highs of GBP 1867, but the rest of the day the Sep 20 traded in a GBP 12 range. Closing price Sep 20 GBP +9 at GBP 1858. The Commitment of Traders figures as of 12.05.20 also bring no new information with a change of +1,049 lots net. Both markets now hold a combined net long position of 94,463.

May 18 - Speculators trim short position in raw sugar, raise long in coffee
Speculators reduced their net short position in raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. for the second consecutive week, trimming 8,996 contracts in the week to May 12 for a total short of 45,763 contracts, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday. They raised their net long position in arabica coffee futures on ICE by 1,644 contracts to hold a net long position of 5,283 contracts by May 12.
 
 

May 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With a slightly weakening British pound, the volatile trading of recent months since the beginning of the crisis continued. After a firm opening and resulting hedge pressure initially put pressure on the market, support was found in the 100-day moving average (GBP 1890 basis Jul20). The opening in gave a further boost, almost equalizing Tuesday's losses. Jul20 added GBP 48 and closed at GBP 1970, but the structural behaviour remains opaque. While front spreads converged on Tuesday, the opposite was the case yesterday. The Jul/Sep20 was again trading triple digits at GBP +112 (+20). There is no clear trend in the structure, but the absolute level is on balance moving further north. The weak GBP and the significantly higher turnover in NY against London is pushing arbitrage further apart after a long period of time.

May 15 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 11-15 May 2020 (IPC)
- As the outbreak of Corona Virus affected 213 countries and territories around the world, pepper business in Viet Nam as of 1st quarterly 2020 was reported with a 12% increase when compared to the same period in 2019, especially exporters with pepper processors or ground pepper business. Furthermore, as of March 2020, some exporters were reported to have increased their pepper shipments such as Tin Mai (an increase of 88% as compared to the same period in 2019), DK Commodity Viet Nam (an increase of 26%), Olam Viet Nam (an increase of 14%), Phuc Sinh (an increase of 13%) and Nedspice Viet Nam (an increase of 11%). The increase of pepper shipment could be contributed to the decrease of Viet Nam's pepper price in the 1st quarterly of 2020 as compared to the same period in 2019 (a decrease by 9% as compare to the same period) and also might be contributed to the increase of pepper consumption due to the benefit of pepper which widely acclaimed for its ability to boost the immune system.
- Market this week showed a rather positive outlook. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 4,082 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,708 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,913 per Mt for white pepper. The increase of Indonesia pepper could be contributed to the strengthening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (IDR 14,931 @ USD 1). Malaysia's black and white peppers were reported stable with an average of USD 1,706 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,060 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 4% and 5% respectively as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,746 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,643 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous weekand was traded at an average of USD 2,753 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 4,233 per Mt.
- International market showed a similar positive outlook. India black pepper was reported with the same stable at an average of USD 4,347 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,108 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,466 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 4%, 4% and 3% respectively as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,280 per Mt, USD 2,310 per Mt and USD 3,210 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reportedsteady averaging at USD 4,433 per Mt.

May 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The gains of the past days were wiped out yesterday afternoon at the latest. Though the market initially gained after a firm opening, the generally overbought market, hedge pressure against new origin cover and the rolling of long positions before today's expiry of the May20 contract put the prices under considerable pressure. The Jul20 temporarily dropped below the 1900 level and found support around GBP 1892, but with a daily range of GBP 99, the highest since July 2019, the Jul20 contract ended up closing well above the lows at GBP 1922 (GBP -59). The gradings of the last few days suggest increasing stock market holdings, which gave spread sellers a tailwind, and so the spreads narrowed again. The Jul/Sep20 to +92; an impressive 5,500 lots were traded here. Sep/Dec20 narrowed to GBP +96.

May 13 - Brazil sugar production jumps 93% as ethanol sales plunge - industry group
Brazilian mills in the center-south region produced 2.01 million tonnes of sugar in the second half of April, 93% more than in the same period a year earlier, as ethanol sales plunged in the local market, industry group Unica said on Tuesday. Unica said sales of hydrous ethanol, the type that competes with gasoline at pumps, sank 38% in April as lockdowns hurt demand, driving mills away from the biofuel's production and towards maximum possible sugar making.

May 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The day after the long weekend for London, it seemed that the market had some catching up to do. After a firm opening, resistance around GBP 1950 was quickly broken, which activated technical buying. With the opening of NY, buy orders from the funds were triggered. On net terms, the market closed with an average gain of 2.3% just before tomorrow's expiry of the May20 contract, the Jul20 gained GBP 45 to GBP 1981, taking us less than GBP100 away from pre-Corona levels in February. The focus was again on structure. Jul/Sep20 diverged to GBP+119, Sep/Dec20 to GBP+112, and in the meantime some cocoa stocks were re-graded - 1 BDU Ivory, 3 BDU + 54 SDU Nigeria and one BDU Cameroon re-grade.

May 12 - Ivory Coast weather threatens to shorten cocoa mid-crop
Persisting below-average rains in most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa growing regions last week was threatening the April-to-September mid-crop, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is in the rainy season, which runs from mid-March to late October when downpours are usually regular and abundant.
 

May 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Without the participation of the London market, the New York market steadily moved towards consolidation at levels around $ 2400, mainly due to the weakness of the US$, caused by a dramatic increase in the unemployment rate in the USA to 14.7%. Closing price July 20 NY $ +19 at $ 2400.
Commitment of Traders as of 05.05 show a small reduction of the net long position by 1,022 lots to 93,414 lots. Within Managed Money the long position was increased by 5,821 lots. In London alone, "Money" liquidated a good 3,300 lots of its speculative gross short position.

May 11 - Arabica coffee growers see harvest delays, possible losses due to coronavirus
South American coffee growers may delay harvest this year and limit the number of workers they employ as the novel coronavirus pandemic continues to spread, threatening to reduce this year's crop of export-quality beans. The pandemic has killed more than 250,000 people and upended food production worldwide. Meat processing plants where outbreaks have occurred are closed; truckers have curtailed deliveries for fear of infection, and farmers are destroying crops that they cannot get to consumers.
 
 

May 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Mainly due to currency effects, July 20 made a leisurely journey to the highs of 29 April (GBP 1948), only narrowly missing them with yesterday's high of GBP 1946. Very slight hedging pressure then set in from the origin, July 20 ended the day at GBP +26 at GBP 1936, the highest closing price since the beginning of March. Volume was more than thin, the July / Sep 20 spread reached a new high at GBP +106. Second month arbitrage now shows LDN with a small premium of GBP +7 vs NY. Just a week before the Last Trading Day of the May 20 date, activity in the grading room continued to increase. Under the knife were 764 lots (including 3 BDUS fresh IVC and 3 BDUS fresh Nigeria), all of which were accepted. 5 more BDUS (origin not yet known) are in the pipeline. London will be closed today (VE Day).

May 08 - Int'l Weekly Pepper Market Report, Week 4-8 May 2020 (IPC)
- Market this week showed a rather positive outlook as only India and China origin were reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,098 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 4% and 2% respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,691 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,885 per Mt for white pepper. The increase of Indonesia pepper could be contributed to the strengthening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (IDR 15,078 @ USD 1). Malaysia's black and white peppers were also reported with an increase of 1% respectively when compared to the previous week with an average of USD 1,714 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,075 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 2% and 3% respectively as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,674 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,516 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,723 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with a slight 1% deficit as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,250 per Mt.
- International market showed a similar positive outlook as only India and China origin were reported with a decrease. India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,360 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 4% and 2% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,087 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,432 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 3%, 3% and 2% respectively as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,200 per Mt, USD 2,230 per Mt and USD 3,130 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,450 per Mt.

May 08 - India sugar exports boosted by strong demand from Indonesia, Iran 
Sugar exports from India have gained momentum due to strong demand from Indonesia and Iran as the rupee slid to a record low, increasing exporters' margins from overseas sales, five industry officials told Reuters. Higher exports from India, the world's biggest producer of sugar, could put pressure on global prices and limit shipments from rivals such as Brazil and Thailand. 

May 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday the consolidation around GBP 1900 continued. Slight hedging pressure on yesterday's highs (GBP 1916) prevented, once again, new weekly highs. July 20 ended the day with GBP +6 at GBP 1910. New York lost $50 at times, but ended the day only marginally lower at $ -15 at $ 2363 / July 20. All in all, not very inspiring. London will remain closed tomorrow, can we expect more action today before the long weekend ?
An article by Bloomberg warned against weakening payments and that the positive figures (Q1) do not correspond to real consumption. It's not rocket science...But the question of all questions was not answered: With all these bearish factors, why is the market where it is right now ?

May 07 - Global coffee supply balance seen shifting to surplus - broker 
The global coffee supply balance is seen shifting from a deficit in the 2019-20 season to a surplus in 2020-21 as expected changes in people's behavior related to social distancing is seen hurting demand, commodity broker Marex Spectron said on Wednesday. Marex expects the global balance to shift from a projected deficit of 4.3 million 60-kg bags in the current season to a surplus of 2 million bags in the 2020-21 season (October-September).
 

May 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

In a narrow range (GBP 23), the second month consolidated around GBP 1900 yesterday (closing GBP 1904 Jul 20, GBP -5). Just a week before the expiry of May 20, the first month was the most agile, before its open interest dropped by 10,000 lots to 6,673 lots. Overall, the market is maintaining its inverse structure, although yesterday again at low volumes. Nevertheless, the structure is stable, despite various reports from the origin. As expected, the first resistance to the arrest warrant of presidential candidate Soro (currently in exile) is stirring in Côte d'Ivoire, 19 men are said to have planned a coup and have been arrested. Furthermore, the prime minister is apparently tending to heart problems and is currently in France for examinations. Ghana is also experiencing lower purchases of the coming crop (698tmt vs 705tmt last year).

May 06 - ICO sees global coffee market flipping into surplus in 2019/20 due to COVID-19 
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) sees the global coffee market flipping into a 1.95 million 60kg bag surplus in the 2019/20 season due to the impact of coronavirus lockdowns, having previously forecast a 474,000 bag deficit. "Many countries have suspended non-essential activities, which have negatively impacted out-of-home coffee consumption," said the ICO in a monthly report on Tuesday.

  May 06 - Brazil's 2020-21 sugar production seen growing 18.5% - government 
Brazil is expected to produce 35.3 million tonnes of sugar in the 2020-21 season (April-March), 18.5% more than in the previous crop, as mills allocate more cane to make sugar and less to produce biofuel ethanol. According to a new projection released on Tuesday by Conab, Brazil's agricultural statistics agency, the total cane crop is seen at 630.7 million tonnes, 1.9% less than in the previous season. Ethanol production was estimated at 32 billion liters, 10.3% lower.

May 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

 It was a mixed start into the short week (LDN will be closed next Friday). At the unofficial opening in the morning NY lost over $ 60 within minutes. London found initial support around the 100 day moving average at GBP 1878 and steadily firmed, finding its highs at GBP 1919. Closing July 20 GBP +24 at GBP 1909. Arbitrage trading also saw New York recover, ending July 20 at $ -15 at $ 2387. Volume in London looked better at first glance due to rolling positions and financing transactions (over 15k lots). A look at the almost unchanged positions in 2021 and the turnover there paints a different picture. With less than 8 months of cover, should price hedging concentrate on 2021 after all? No chance! Concerns about consumption and the global economy have condemned market participants to wait.

May 05 - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers fear low output after below-average rainfall 
Below-average rainfall in Ivory Coast last week has raised fears of a cocoa supply shortage in the coming months and a weak end to the April-to-September mid-crop, farmers said on Monday. The world’s top cocoa producer relies on regular downpours during the rainy season from mid-March to late October. However, farmers said that a lack of rain could hamper crop development in August and September.
 
 

May 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With most European market participants in holiday mode, volatility returned to the markets in full swing. July 20 traded in a range of GBP 1884/1922 and ended the day weakly at GBP -37 at GBP 1885, the main trigger being, not surprisingly, the highly volatile structure. The May / July 20 spread lost over GBP 20 (closing GBP +89), while the July / Sept 20 spread lost over GBP 30 and seems to be attracting relatively high interest from specs / funds. Commitment of Traders as of 28.04. show a slight increase of the net long position from 3,667 lots to 94,436 lots net long. Interesting: London increased over 5.000 lots in the last reporting period, while New York reduced almost 2.000 lots. We see the next stronger support in July 20 around GBP 1845 (100 days moving average).

May 04 - May raw sugar delivery a record near 2.26 mln T, all from Brazil - ICE 
The physical delivery against the May raw sugar contract on ICE Futures U.S. totaled 44,449 lots, or about 2.26 million tonnes, a record amount for any contract month, exchange data showed on Friday. The numbers were in line with traders' expectations published by Reuters on Thursday. Market operators are split in their evaluations whether the giant delivery is bearish or bullish for sugar prices.

 May 04 - Mexico says U.S. to maintain trade terms over sugar 
Mexico's government on Saturday said the U.S. Commerce Department had published a notification of its intention to keep an agreement regulating Mexican sugar exports into the United States active for another five years. The United States in 2014 imposed hefty duties on imports of Mexican sugar after determining the country's sugar firms were dumping cheap, subsidized sugar into the U.S. market. 

 May 04 - Speculators boost short position in raw sugar to nearly 76,000 contracts 
Speculators added 15,834 contracts to their sugar short bet on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to April 28, taking the total net short to 75,897 contracts, as weak energy prices are seen driving a sharp increase in the global supply of the sweetener. The raw sugar market has been hammered by falling energy prices, since analysts believe cane mills in Brazil will shift a large part of their processing toward sugar production, cutting ethanol volumes to avoid depressed demand and prices for the biofuel.
  

May 01 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 27 April-1 May 2020 (IPC)
- Market this week showed a rather positive outlook as only India origin was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,121 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,622 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,823 per Mt for white pepper. The slight increase of Indonesia pepper could be contributed to the strengthening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (IDR 15,413 @ USD 1). Malaysia's black and white peppers were also reported with an increase of 1% respectively when compared to the previous week with an average of USD 1,701 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,052 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,649 per Mt whilst Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable and unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 3% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,680 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable and unchanged.
- International market also showed a rather positive outlook as only India origin was reported with a decrease. India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,385 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,005 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,358 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged. China white pepper was reported steady and also unchanged.
Trade activity in US market this week was reported with moving slow due to the pandemic of corona virus with a wishful prospect the next month business will recommence though grinder/trading house stock limited.

May 01 - Brazil's Raizen plans higher sugar output on weakened real - CEO 
Brazilian sugar and ethanol giant Raizen SA plans to increase the amount of cane used for sugar by more than 10% as a weak Brazilian currency gives it a competitive edge over rivals in India, Thailand and Australia, the company's chief executive said. One month after taking the job, CEO Ricardo Mussa told Reuters in an interview that Raizen expects a "very productive" 2020/21 cane harvest despite the risks of the coronavirus epidemic.

Apr 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday, the nearby contracts had clear support from options trading. Today's last trading day of May options in London was responsible for massive future volume (29k lots May 20). The indicator for the nervousness is the "implied volatility" of the options, which rose to over 70%, an unprecedented value. Speculative buying tested the highs (GBP 1922 May 20) on several occasions and eventually broke through to +GBP 48, but hedge sales against cover from the origin put pressure on the market. The May 20 closed at GBP 1925 (+25). The market may calm down again after today's expiration of May options trading. However, surprising (though as usually unofficial) news from Côte d'Ivoire suggest plans for a new, additional premium in addition to origin differentials and LID. Combined with general uncertainty, this will probably depress forward cover.

Apr 30 - Brazil's center-south sugar production rises 178% in April, says group
The production of sugar in Brazil's center-south region increased by 178% in the first half of April year-on-year, as mills put all their effort into making as much sugar as possible and escape a dreadful ethanol market. According to data from sugar industry group Unica on Wednesday, mills produced 948,000 tonnes of the sweetener in the first half of April compared with 340,000 tonnes at this time last year.

 
Apr 30 - Mexican farmers give away tomatoes as demand squashed by coronavirus 
Mexican tomato farmers are so hard pressed to sell their product at home or abroad due to the disruptions caused by the coronavirus outbreak that they have had to donate some of their produce to food banks or use it to feed cattle. Demand for tomatoes from Sinaloa, Mexico's top tomato-producing state, dropped by 40% in some areas among growers that supply businesses ranging from hotels to fast food chains including Subway and McDonald's, farmers said.
 

Apr 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The slightly weaker opening soon found support, again at the 50-day average. During the day, Jul 20 traded in a GBP 53 range, reaching its highest level in seven weeks before closing at GBP 8, up GBP 1900. In the afternoon, it became known that the Ivorian presidential candidate and ex-rebel leader Guillaume Soro was sentenced in absentia to 20 years in prison. Soro is currently abroad to escape charges against him in Côte d'Ivoire for an alleged coup attempt in autumn 2019. Interestingly, just last week the African Court of Human Rights had demanded that he be acquitted of all charges against him. In view of the elections in October, the Ivorian verdict is more likely to fuel the chances of political turmoil in the country. Mr Soro will certainly not simply accept this. Point for the bulls...

Apr 29 - Coronavirus brews trouble for tea, disrupts supply as demand spikes 
The coronavirus outbreak is causing a rare stir in the usually staid global tea market, with labour lockdowns stifling supplies just as millions in lockdown drive up demand for the beverage known for its immunity-boosting properties. Five countries - China, India, Kenya, Sri Lanka and Vietnam - account for 82% of global tea exports, but strict restrictions on movement to contain the coronavirus pandemic have already disrupted the key leaf-picking season, delayed some shipments by about a month and triggered a spike in prices. 

Apr 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After some European countries, including Great Britain, ease their pandemic restrictions, the US$ loses ground against the British pound. Arbitrage is growing, and in the second month it is increasing its premium to GBP 18, as yesterday's quotations again showed weak volume with almost sideways movement during the day. A short test of the highs around GBP 1900 Jul20 was soon caught and support was once again found at the 50-day moving average. The Jul20 closed almost unchanged (GBP 1892; +3). Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire are reported at 1,734 mmt (-5% YoY); Ghana announces purchases of approx. 695 tmt vs. 705 tmt in the previous year as of 9.4.20. The ICE stocks have fallen to a level last seen in spring 2015. This basically increases the volatility of the front London quotations and supports the inverse structure.

Apr 28 - Brazil sugar output seen at record 41 mln T in new season - consultancy 
Brazil is expected to produce a record amount of sugar in the current season, at 41 million tonnes versus 29.6 million tonnes previously, which will take the country back to the number 1 spot among the world's largest producers, surpassing India.  According to a study from Sao Paulo-based sugar and ethanol consultancy Job Economia released on Monday, Brazilian sugar exports could grow to 29.8 million tonnes in 2020-21 (April-March) from 19.44 million tonnes in the previous cycle. 

 
 Apr 28 -
Ivory Coast cocoa farmers fret over lack of rain 

Well below average rainfall last week in most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa regions has reduced expectations of a healthy mid-crop marketed from April to September, farmers said on Monday. The world’s top cocoa producer is entering the rainy season, when there should be regular downpours from mid-March to late October. 

Apr 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The second month of July20 traded in a GBP 35 range on Friday, and ended virtually unchanged at GBP 1889 (GBP -3). Coupled with a slightly more volatile GBP against the euro, the industry used this to gradually increase its cover. On balance, the inverse structure increased significantly last week despite minimal volumes. While the July 20 gained over 2.8%, the forwards remained largely unchanged. The Jul 20/21 spread traded at a premium of GBP 235, the front spread May/Jul 20 stabilised at around GBP 100. The solid performance in London was also due to arbitrage, with the second month trading at a premium over NY (GBP +5). The net long position increased minimally by +1747 lots to 90,769 lots; the Managed Money buyers kept its long position on balance at 13,226 lots, largely unchanged.

Apr 27 - Uganda March Coffee Exports Jump 39% on Year - WSJ

Uganda's coffee exports jumped 39% in March compared with the corresponding month last year, boosted by improved prices and larger deliveries from the continuing harvest in Africa's largest exporter of the beans, the Uganda Coffee Development Authority said Monday. Shipments jumped to 477,561 60-kilogram bags, compared with 345,085 bags exported in March last year, the state coffee body said in a report. The rise in March was the third in a row, bringing the cumulative shipments to 2.6 million bags worth $251 million, representing an 21% jump in volume and some 18% rise in value on year.
  "The increase in exports has been attributed to the increased production on account of fruition of the newly planted coffee," UCDA said. "Exporters also drew down on their stocks in the midst of the lockdown due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Exports are yet to be affected by the virus."
  Uganda, which grows mainly the bitter tasting robusta coffee variety used in blends and instant drinks, exports nearly all of its bean-form coffee output to U.S. and European Union markets.
  Uganda expects a bumper crop of around 5.2 million bags for the 2019-20 season, compared with 4.5 million bags last season.

Apr 27 - Speculators boost net short position in raw sugar 
Speculators added 16,912 contracts to their sugar short bet on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to April 21, taking the total net short to 60,063 contracts, as collapsing energy prices increases global supply of the sweetener. According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report on Friday, speculators also slightly raised their net long position in arabica coffee futures by 260 contracts to 10,079 during that period.
 
 

Apr 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The solid performance of the previous day was followed by consolidation at current levels. July 20 failed to mark new 6 week highs and found good resistance around the GBP 1900 level (high yesterday GBP 1904). The closing prices across the board offered an unusual picture. July 20 GBP -8 at GBP 192, Sep 20 GBP +10 at GBP 1815...The 2021 dates continued to close slightly negative. Also an unusual picture in spreads, May / July 20 firmer at GBP +103 (as well as Sep / Dec 20 at GBP +99), while July / Sep 20 converged around GBP 14 to a premium of GBP +78. These circumstances do not make it easier to draw a clear picture. Côte d'Ivoire plans to provide a fund of US$16.7 million to keep local processing competitive with international competitors. We wish you a nice weekend

Apr 24 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 20-24 April 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed a mixed response with Sri Lanka origin was reported with the highest decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 4,155 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% and 2% respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,604 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,791 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia's black and white peppers were reported with 1% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week with an average of USD 1,690 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,032 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 2% respectively when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 1,628 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,431 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with 5% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,592 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable and was traded at an average of USD 4,275 per Mt locally.
- International market showed a rather positive outlook as Indonesia and Viet Nam origin were reported with an increase. India black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,416 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% and 2% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,983 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,320per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 2%, 2% and 1% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,130 per Mt, USD 2,160 per Mt and USD 3,060 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported steady and was traded at an average of USD 4,475 per Mt internationally.

Apr 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After an unchanged opening and caught in a range between GBP 1840 / GBP 1855, there was a significant fortification of the market in the late afternoon. July 20 temporarily laid GBP 65, broke through all technical resistance and traded on highs of GBP 1907. Closing price GBP +58 at GBP 1900. May 20 tested and broke through the GBP 2000 mark and ended the day at GPB +85 at GBP 1999. The near May / July 20 spread widened to GBP +100, July / Sep 20 to GBP +96 and May / Dec 20 approached the GBP 300 mark with GBP +286 in the high. It seems that the current speculative activity (fundamental news played in the background) is focusing on the structure. If the leading dates increased significantly, the 2021 dates were much more inactive with a fortification between GBP +11 / +14. Should the origin become active soon, the hedge pressure could make the structure run even more inversely and attract new longs...At the moment, however, only guessing. New York was only a co-driver yesterday, arbitrage weakened significantly by GBP 20 and is now at GBP -25 in July.

Apr 23 - Thailand's 2019/20 cane output hits 10-year low as drought bites
Thailand's cane output in the 2019/20 season was the lowest in a decade, as prolonged drought undermined yield, a Thai cane and sugar agency said on Wednesday. Thailand, the world's second-largest sugar exporter after Brazil, crushed 74.89 million tonnes of sugarcane in the season that ended earlier this month, producing only 8.27 million tonnes of the sweetener. 

Apr 23 - Ivory Coast to boost local cocoa-grinding with $16.7 mln fund
Ivory Coast will create a cocoa-processing fund worth 10 billion CFA francs ($16.7 million) to help domestic grinders compete against long-dominant international players, the government spokesman said on Wednesday. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa-grower, produced about 2.2 million tonnes of cocoa last year, but processed only around 547,000 tonnes of beans in the October-September season.
 
 

Apr 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Grinding figures Q1 2020: ECA +0.88%; Germany -1.9%; Total +0.64%
A weak British pound yesterday led to a breakout from the old familiar range, at least in the short term. Driven by NY, July 20 LDN rose to new 6 week highs from GBP 1864, and at these levels, there was a further small reduction in the long. July 20 ended the day with GBP +8 at GBP 1842, still below GBP 1850, which is currently putting a cap on the market. NY July 20 was weaker, ending the day at $-40 at $ 2318. Origin activity is trending towards 0, the question is when and at what levels will pre-sales resume? This fact, coupled with lower volumes, is causing some participants to enter the market much weaker. One thing is certain...the industry will certainly not give up its comfortable cover without a fight. Grinding figures for Europe are slightly above expectations, expected was unchanged to approx. -3%.

Apr 22 - Hailstorm devastates hundreds of hectares of Bordeaux vines in SW France
A violent hailstorm that hit the Bordeaux wine region last Friday has caused severe damage, with several hundred hectares of vines nearly destroyed, notably in the famous Saint-Emilion region, the local chamber of agriculture said on Tuesday. This comes at a time when French wine makers are already suffering from a slowdown in consumption due to the closure of restaurants and bars worldwide in a bid to contain the new coronavirus, as well as from lower exports caused by extra U.S. tariffs on French wine since late last year.
 
 

Apr 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the firm movement on Friday, yesterday saw consolidation in the markets. July 20 tested the 200 day moving average at GBP 1843 and also marked its high yesterday. Closing price July 20 GBP -4 at GBP 1834. New York was at times a little more susceptible to the macroeconomic environment and the sharp fall in the price of crude oil (21-year low) and at times lost over $50. Closing price July 20 NY $-10 at $2358. Ivory Coast reported arrivals of 1.711 million tonnes vs. 1.787 million tonnes / -4.3% as at 19.04. Ghana reduced its expectations by 20k mt to 780k mt for the current crop. Tomorrow, the European and German grinding figures for Q1 will be published before trading starts. A range of unchanged to -3% is expected and a significant impact of the current crisis is not expected.

Apr 21 - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers hope for downpours as rains slow
Rainfall in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa regions was mainly below average last week, prompting farmers on Monday to warn of the need for heavier showers as harvesting intensifies. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is entering the rainy season, which runs from mid-March to late October when there should be regular downpours.

Apr 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With a bang the cocoa market said goodbye to a rather inactive / boring week after Easter. After opening NY, the market quickly jumped to new highs of GBP 1840, ending the day at GBP +61 at GBP 1838. NY was clearly the driver with a firmer close of $ 2369 / $+110. Trigger? Slight buying interest from the industry? The not "as bad as perhaps expected grinding numbers (NCA -5%, Asia -0.5)? A firm July / Sep 20 spread (new high with GBP +64)? Surely a mix of all of these factors, coupled with more than thin volumes (we have often pointed out this danger before) is making the market play "ping-pong". Despite everything, we are still in the GBP 1850 / 1750 range, which has been holding steady since mid-March. Commitment of Traders as of 14.04. shows a small reduction of the net long position of -3904 lots (LDN -550/NY -3354). Total: +89,035 Net Long.

Apr 20 - Sugar short bet grows by nearly 11,000 contracts in the U.S.
Speculators added almost 11,000 contracts to their sugar short bet on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to April 14, taking the total net short to 43,151 contracts, as collapsing energy prices increase global supply of the sweetener. According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report on Friday, 10,921 contracts were added to the raw sugar short bet. 

Apr 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday, the market initially gained around GBP +20, but the volume was shallow. Speculative selling, which soon began, put pressure on the market. However, the support at GBP1750 Jul 20 continued to withstand another test. New York brought further support as open interest there has been growing for the first time in almost two weeks. The Jul 20 closed 27 points higher at GBP 1777, and the British Pound was stable despite the recent three-week extension of the lockdown there. As expected, the U.S. grind figutes were negative, with the first quarter down -5.1% year-on-year (115,591 Q1/20mts vs. 121,801mts Q1/19). Meanwhile, a major international grinder published its half-year figures and a 5.8% increase in revenues, which may give reason for some optimism.

Apr 17 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market report, Week 13-17 April 2020 (IPC)
- Market this week showed a positive response with Indonesia origin reported with the highest increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 4,159 per Mt. Following the strengthening of the Indonesian rupiah against US Dollar by 4% as compared to last week's average, Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 8% and 4% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 1,591 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,737 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia's black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 1,594 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,381 per Mt for white pepper. As a result of the strengthening of Sri Lankan Rupee against US Dollar, Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 3% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,732 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with a slight increase of 1% and was traded at an average of USD 4,263 per Mt locally.
- International market also showed a positive outlook as only India and Malaysia origin were reported stable. India black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,421 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 8% and 4% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,967 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,258 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 2%, 2% and 1% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,090 per Mt, USD 2,120 per Mt and USD 3,020 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as opposed to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 4,463 per Mt internationally.

Apr 17 - Ethanol demand slump puts Brazil sugar industry in a grind 
Brazilian sugar and ethanol companies are going into survival mode, cutting back harvest operations and tapping into credit lines to weather the slump in fuel demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Government restrictions on movement and businesses to stem the spread of the virus have undercut global demand.

Apr 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A 100 point weakening of the British pound against the US-dollar again put pressure on the market yesterday, but with less than 1000 lots sold by midday, there was little sign of volume. July20 tested the support around GBP 1745, but closed slightly stronger at GBP 1750 (GBP -17). The May/Jul20 spread was remarkably volatile despite the low volume (GBP 20-50 premium) and eventually closed around another GBP 20, while the rest remained stable. The Malaysian grinding figures contributed to the overall picture with -6.1% Q1/20, while Brazil had reported +6.55% on Monday. Today and in the coming days, we expect the figures from US, Asia and next week the ECA.

Apr 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

New York had delivered on Good Friday, and the pound sterling remained firm, probably due to reports of first positive effects of the UK lockdown. The combination of the two put pressure on the market and prices declined around GBP 20 after opening. For most of the day, quotes traded in a GBP 15 range towards the next technical support (GBP 1745). July20 closed at GBP 1767 (GBP -35). Although the structure remains inverted (May/May traded at GBP 167), it is still flat in the forwards. The specs have largely liquidated their position, and building a speculative short position would be unusual. After around -GBP 300 within 2 months, a reversal of the trend would at least be more likely: Despite a weak economic outlook, bullish factors such as the LID, elections in origin and possible risks in the original supply remain.

Apr 15 - Brazil sugar production up 42% as season kicks off, ethanol sales down 
Brazilian mills in the major center-south region produced 198,000 tonnes of sugar in the second half of March, 42% more than in the same period a year earlier, as companies shift cane allocation to the sweetener amid a collapse of the ethanol market. According to a biweekly report by industry group Unica released on Tuesday, mills in the region allocated 27.5% of the cane to produce sugar in the period, compared to 20.5% at this time last year. Sales of hydrous ethanol late in March fell 20.8%.

 Apr 15 - Philippines' farm minister fears sugar price spike as coronavirus shuts mills 
The shutdown of two of the Philippines' major sugar mills due to coronavirus-containment measures could lead to a domestic shortage and trigger price spikes, the country's farm minister said on Wednesday. Agriculture Secretary William Dar appealed to Bukidnon Governor Jose Maria Zubiri Jr., who placed the southern province under total lockdown from April 13 to April 26 after it recorded its first coronavirus case, to minimize any economic impacts.

 Apr 15 - Ivory Coast weather boosts cocoa mid-crop - farmers 
Plentiful rainfall and sunshine in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa regions last week should boost the volume and quality of the April-to-September mid-crop, farmers said on Tuesday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is entering the rainy season, which runs from mid-March to late October when there are regular downpours.

Apr 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Without the involvement of the London market, no significant highlights were visible in New York either. Further May20 liquidation in light of First Notice Day in NY on Friday essentially shaped the day there, NY lost $ -61 basis Jul20 (closing at $2311). May/May arbitrage recorded a discount NY < London for the first time in a long time, although hardly anyone is likely to trade it any more. Another reason for the weak performance is probably the alarming new US unemployment figures. As of Tuesday last week, managed money traders reduced their long position by -8,150 lots to a net 17k lots. The total net long position now totals 92,939 lots. In London, open interest is still focusing on the Dec20: Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire are said to have pre-sold just 1.0m tonnes of the new crop, 30-40% less than in previous years...  

Apr 14 - Brazil aims to announce help for ethanol sector this week - minister 
Brazil plans to announce this week measures to support its ethanol sector, which has been battered by falling demand and a sharp drop in gasoline prices due to turmoil in oil markets, Agriculture Minister Tereza Cristina Dias said on Monday. Dias said Brazil was finalizing measures that may include a rise in the Cide tax on gasoline and the withdrawal of the Pis/Cofins levy on ethanol for an unspecified period of time.

 Apr 13 - Caffeinated conservation: Colombian farmers switch coca for coffee to protect wildlife 
In a clearing around his modest smallholding, farmer Arcadio Barajas stands before a sea of coffee plants, cloaked in the shadow cast by a wall of verdant forest that covers the San Lucas mountains of northern Colombia.  The San Lucas range is one of the most unexplored places in this South American nation, which is the world's second most biodiverse country after neighboring Brazil. From its towering Andean peaks to its tropical islands and dense Amazon rainforest, Colombia is home to over 50,000 recorded species of animals and plants.

 Apr 10 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 6-10 April 2020 (IPC)
- As the total death from COVID-19 outbreak nearly reached 100,000 people, many countries enforced more rigorous measures in trying to lessen the spread of the Virus. Indonesia reportedly implemented a large-scale social restriction in their capital city which would last for the next two weeks, as market this week showed a mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,177 per Mt. The decrease of Malabar black pepper price could be contributed to the weakening of Indian Rupee against US Dollar. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with a slight increase by 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 1,467 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,628 per Mt for white pepper. The increase of Indonesia black and white pepper price could be contributed to the slight strengthening of Indonesia Rupiah against US Dollar. Malaysia's black and white pepper were reported stable averaging at USD 1,705 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,059 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported stable and unchanged whilst Viet Nam white pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,347 per Mt. Following the significant weakening of Sri Lankan Rupee against US Dollar, Sri Lanka black pepper was traded with a 4% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,660 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% and was traded at an average of USD 4,239 per Mt locally.
- In contrary, international market showed a rather positively outlook with only India origin recorded a deficit. India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,440 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,819 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,129 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, contrary to local price, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 4%, 3% and 2% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,050 per Mt, USD 2,080 per Mt and USD 2,980 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as opposed to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 4,439 per Mt internationally.

Apr 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It was the second day in a row that the market gave us a little rest, at least in the daily range. We suspect it is the calm before the next storm or a recovery before the high volatility returns to the market. Why? The specs / funds are mostly out, the volume (in London just 13 k lots) more than small...meaning the liquidity is missing in the market. The May / July 20 spread traded at a low of GBP +31 and in a range of a proud GBP 27. July 20 tested the GBP 1850, forming a double-top to GBP 1848 and corrected slightly in the afternoon (currency related). Closing price GBP -11 at GBP 1835. On the upside, GBP 1850 seems to continue to provide good resistance, while on the downside, levels around GBP 1740 might provide some initial strong support in the form of industrial buying interest. Happy Easter and stay healthy.

Apr 09 - Mexico avocado production to continue uninterrupted despite coronavirus
U.S. consumers, the primary market for Mexico's $3 billion avocado export business, will have uninterrupted access to the coveted crop as growers continue to work despite the coronavirus. Unlike the beer industry, which reduced operations to a minimum after the Mexican government declared a health emergency, the avocado farmers do not plan to slow down.

 Apr 09 - Indian white sugar exports at near standstill as lockdown bites
India's white sugar shipments have been brought to a near standstill by the coronavirus lockdown, depriving the global market of key supplies after a poor harvest in Asia's top exporter Thailand. Most of India's private ports have declared force majeure and while government ports are operating, they face labour shortages as Indians have been ordered to stay home and avoid spreading the coronavirus under a 21-day lockdown. 

Apr 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Although with less momentum, the upward movement continued yesterday. Again, the decisive factor was the near May 7 July 20 spread, which traded at GBP +74 in the high and pulled the remaining months upwards. July 20 peaked at GBP 1848, closing at GBP +12 at GBP 1846, and the market should find good resistance at GBP 1859 (200-day moving average 2nd month continuation), as well as in the direction of GBP 1880. Volume was again low and the market will remain volatile. The industry is in a waiting position to continue to support the market during the next small downward correction. This is especially true for 2021...Here the tenor seems to be that the level around GBP 1680 is below the average of recent years and should be used. The uncertainty about consumption and the global development of the pandemic finally prevails. Côte d'Ivoire reports a 5.6% increase in grinding in Q1. Furthermore, 320 corona cases, 41 cured and 3 deaths were officially reported. However, West Africa is also a good month behind us in the current development.

Apr 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Despite a clearly volatile opening, the trading day yesterday was quiet for most of the time. New York and its break through the US$2300 mark was the main reason for the afternoon's firmer performance and new 16-day high of GBP 1831. As mentioned above, July 20 in LDN was trading at new highs and in a GBP 67 range, but it is worth noting that there was much less volume than in previous weeks. July 20 ended the day with a proud GBP +59 at GBP 1830 and New York US$ +88 at US$ 2348. The main reasons for yesterday's movement were certainly the breakout from the New York bandwidth, which has been maintained for almost 2 weeks, the short position of managed money funds in NY mentioned yesterday and the further strengthening of the structure in London. The May / July 20 spread reached new highs of GBP +69 yesterday and the remaining spreads continued as well. On the fundamental side, IVC reported arrivals of 1.677 mn vs. 1.725 mn (-2.8%) as of 05.04. Weekly arrivals were 32k mt vs. 51k mt. Ghana is at 688,080 mt on par with the previous year.

Apr 07 - More rains needed to boost Ivory Coast cocoa mid-crop - farmers 
Above-average rains across most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa regions last week were sufficient for the development of the mid-crop, but more moisture will be needed to strengthen it, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is entering the rainy season that runs from mid-March to late October when there are regular downpours.

 
Apr 07 - ICE sugar hedging by Brazilian mills rises sharply - study 
Brazilian sugar mills had hedged 17 million tonnes of sugar sales using New York's ICE futures contracts by March 31, a large increase over the same period a year before, Archer Consulting estimated on Monday. At the same time a year earlier, Brazilian mills had hedged only 11 million tonnes of sugar sales, the consultancy said in a note to clients.

 Apr 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It was, as expected, a volatile end of the week in cocoa. July 20 traded, albeit in low volumes, in a GBP 25 range immediately after opening. Friday's high was GBP 1783, marking a new 4-day high. Closing price July 20 GBP +7 at GBP 1771. The massively volatile May / July 20 spread, which traded from GBP +2 to GBP +64 at the peak / closing price GBP +47, caused surprise and uncertainty. Impressive, especially after the spread had weakened due to the new delivery limits on the markets. Commitment of Traders as of 31.03. show a further reduction of the net long position by 14,435 lots to 101,089 lots net long. Within managed money a clearer picture, the funds sold 17,246 gross long positions and 6,163 lots of fresh shorts. In New York the Managed Money Funds are now in a gross short position of 10k lots. The Ivory Coast is providing US$ 495 million in support for the commodity sector. A test centre under construction in Abidjan was destroyed yesterday by angry demonstrators.

Apr 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The downtrend came to an end yesterday after weeks. The buying interest at the beginning was quickly absorbed and technical support was once again tested with lows around GBP 1740 (see chart), but in the afternoon New York took the helm and led the quotations up again in London as well. The Jul 20 closed at GBP 21 up at GBP 1764, largely eliminating the week's losses. The arbitrage continued to widen. The May/Jul 20 spread was leading the way, trading back at GBP 4. The performance was certainly also driven by growing concerns about how the major origins might counter a potential spread of the Corona crisis. What is certain is that the countries of origin could not so "easily" activate billion-dollar protective shields if the spread were to increase.

Apr 03 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Report, Week 30 Mar-3 April 2020 (IPC)
- As Viet Nam reportedly implemented a total nation-wide lockdown, starting 1 April 2020, in response of trying to flatten the curve of Corona Virus spreading, market this week showed a mixed response as only Viet Nam was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,219 per Mt. The increase of Malabar black pepper price could be contributed to the slight strengthening of Indian Rupee against US Dollar. Following the social distancing policy implemented in Indonesia some major markets in Lampung and Bangka, two major producing area of black and white pepper, are closed. Consequently, Indonesia black pepper was reported with a slight increase of 2% as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 1,458 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 2,612 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,703 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,056 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with 2% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 1,577 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,381 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was traded with 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,766 per Mt which could be contributed to the weakening of Sri Lankan Rupee against US Dollar. China white pepper was reported stable and was traded at an average of USD 4,214 per Mt locally.
- International market showed a rather stable outlook with only Indonesia origin recorded an increase. India black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,484 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,808 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 3,110 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged. China white pepper was reported steady and was traded at an average of USD 4,414 per Mt.
- Prices at US market this week was reported quite stable, though business had become slightly unpredictable and slow due to the nation-wide lockdown as US became country with the most active cases of Corona Virus with 228,874 (as of 3 April 2020) and 6,095 total death. Many pepper origins were still very cautious when prices were already at very low levels and unlikely to fall further when US Dollar strong against International local currencies.

Apr 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Continuing the familiar pattern, the market crawled from unchanged to slightly lower until shortly before the end of the day and tested the next support line at GBP1740 (Jul 20). Yesterday unsuccesfully, the Jul 20 closed at GBP 1743; -12). Again, further long liquidations by speculators are likely to be the main reason for this decline. However, the question is becoming louder how much more can be liquidated without going short. When the net long position was so low last time, the structure was in carry, where a long position is considered disadvantageous for financial speculation. From today's perspective, a carry structure is still a long way off, with spread May20/May21 trading at GBP100. And fundamental? Ghana reported a main crop of 685k mt as of 12th March (previous year 678k mt); according to an unnamed source, Côte d'Ivoire reported 1.76 million mts, which would be a new record.

Apr 02 - Costa Rica farmers destroy flowers as coronavirus spoils exports 
Costa Rican flower farmers have started destroying lilies, roses and chrysanthemums they have lovingly tended for months after the coronavirus outbreak led to the suspension of flights to markets in the United States and Canada. "This was our work. We have grown and cared for them since they were seeds," said Cristian Quiros, a worker at the Flores y Verdes del Irazu farm in the central city of Cartago. "Now we have to throw them away, and it's such a difficult feeling."
 
 

Apr 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Also yesterday, the market found new lows with little volatility. Not unexpectedly, the Jul20 also broke through the next technical support at GBP 1760 and closed at GBP 1755, leaving GBP 25 short of the next support until the lows manifested in December 2019. However, the markets remain significantly oversold and the speculative long position is now only 37k lots... For the first time in over five weeks, the May/Jul20 spread has returned to discount (GBP-2). Although prices between this and the new crop are still clearly at premium, the structure continues to flatten out. In Côte d'Ivoire, the farm gate price remains the same for the middle harvest which is now beginning (FCFA 825/kg). Reuters reports that two major processors have been suspended by the CCC for exceeding their quota of export contracts, but analysts consider this to be "fake news".

Apr 01 - Ivory Coast suspends new cocoa bean purchases by Cargill, Barry Callebaut
Ivory Coast's cocoa board has temporarily suspended Cargill, Barry Callebaut and some other traders from buying new beans, it said on Tuesday, claiming they have already exceeded their contracted exports for this season. Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) chief executive Yves Brahima Kone told reporters the board had acted because the companies' purchases had exceeded the volume of their export contracts by more than 10%, and that they would be required to sell off their surpluses.

Mar 31 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The GBP gained slightly against the EUR and USD during the day, and again the quotations weakened somewhat. With a volume of 5632 lots, the market crawled towards technical support at GBP 1760 basis Jul20 with the main focus on the May/Jul20 spread, but failed to break through. The market closed at GBP 1764 Jul20 (GBP-7). It is likely that the liquidation of the speculative long position continued yesterday, as Open Interest in May20 is higher than in Jul20. Interestingly, the Open Interest in Dec20 is significantly higher than in the remaining contracts, which indicates an unusual distribution of the position. But these are generally unusual times. Côte d'Ivoire has isolated itself, nothing goes in or out. Although the lockdown is in force and is being tightly controlled by the police, a curfew is very difficult to enforce, unlike in Europe. Exports are still going on, however, with considerable delays.

Mar 31 - US investigates child labour in Ivory Coast cocoa supply chains

U.S. customs authorities have asked cocoa traders to report where and when they encounter child labour in their supply chains in top grower Ivory Coast, three industry sources said, following calls from American lawmakers to ban some imports. Cocoa traders and chocolate companies including Mars, Hershey, Cargill and Barry Callebaut, have repeatedly missed internationally agreed targets for reducing the worst forms of child labour from supply lines in West Africa, all sides have acknowledged. 

Mar 31 - Ivory Coast rain and sun to boost cocoa mid-crop - farmers
Abundant rain mixed with sunny spells in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa regions last week will boost the mid-crop in the world's biggest producer, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast is entering the rainy season that runs from mid-March to late October when downpours are regular.

 Mar 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The downward trend continued on Friday as well. The British pound, which has been firmer since the beginning of last week, and likely further liquidation of the longs put pressure on prices, and with little volume, the lowest prices of the week were reached early in the morning. Trading focused especially on the nearby spread Jul/Sept20, which lost GBP 7. The July20 date closed the week at GBP 1771 (GBP -26), the lowest closing price of the year so far. The speculative long position decreased by 26,048 lots by the end of last Tuesday, as expected, with a total of -20,483 lots. In Côte d'Ivoire, as in other West African origins, the borders are being closed and public transport is being shut down. Significant consequences are expected for operations in the two major ports, as people will no longer be able to come to work.

Mar 30 - Coffee importers stockpiling on fears over coronavirus lockdowns
Coffee importers in some of the largest consuming countries are stockpiling, bringing forward orders by up to a month to avoid shortages if supply chains are disrupted by coronavirus lockdowns. The global pandemic has prompted governments around the world to impose severe restrictions on movement in a bid to stem the spread of the virus. Supply chains are backing up as air freight capacity plunges and companies struggle to find enough truck drivers and shipping crews.

Mar 30 - Analyst Green Pool expects small global sugar surplus in 2020/21
Analyst Green Pool said on Friday it now expects a global sugar surplus in the 2020/21 season as the coronavirus pandemic dents demand growth and the oil price war encourages a switch to more production of the sweetener in Brazil. The Australia-based sugar and biofuels analyst put the surplus at 0.30 million tonnes, raw value, versus a forecast in late February that there would be a deficit of 3.04 million tonnes. 

Mar 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After (at least) two days that looked like consolidation, the markets fell again yesterday. Due to a strong British pound and a weak US dollar and further liquidation of the longs, July 20 LDN slipped to GBP 1786. Closing price July 20 GBP -25 at GBP 1797. The arbitrage recovered further to a discount of GBP -61 / July 20. At the close of trading on Tuesday 24.03. a further reduction of the longs between 25-30k lots is expected. Report will follow on Monday. Yesterday the industry again accompanied the market on its way down with further price hedges. We are joining many reports of the last few days. Stay healthy, stay home and eat chocolate (at least we will!).

Mar 27 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Report, Week 23-27 March 2020 (IPC)
- As more country imposed a nation-wide lockdown amid the Corona Virus outbreak, the latest being India which 21 days total lockdown order came in 24 March 2020, market this week showed a mixed response as only India reported an increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 4% when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,198 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with a 6% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,432 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,620 per Mt for white pepper. The decrease of Indonesia black and white pepper was highly contributed to the weakening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (6% depreciation to an average of IDR 16,413 @ USD 1). Malaysian black and white pepper were reported stable averaging at USD 1,691 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,034 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 1,607 per Mt whilst Viet Nam white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,426 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper was traded with 2% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,791 per Mt which could be contributed to the weakening of Sri Lankan Rupee against US Dollar. China white pepper was reported stable and traded its white pepper at an average of USD 4,200 per Mt locally.
- International market also showed a mixed response with only India reported an increase. India black pepper was reported with an increase of 3% when compared to the previous week and was traded internationally at an average of USD 4,462 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with a 6% deficit respectively as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,779 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,119 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged. Whilst, China white pepper was reported steady and was traded at an average of USD 4,400 per Mt.

Mar 26 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Two breathers, with low bandwidths and even narrower volumes, one after the other...Is it okay to speak of consolidation or recovery, especially in these days and ages? The market is gradually coming to rest and July 20 continued to find good resistance at the 200 day moving average at GBP 1847 (high yesterday GBP 1842). A firm British pound then, once again, caused the market to close almost unchanged at GBP -4 at GBP 1822. New York tested its 10 day moving average at $2305 in July, ending the day at $ -9 at $2258. The LDN / NY arbitrage also recovered yesterday to a discount of GBP -82, from GBP -100 the day before.

Mar 26 - Brazil sugar mills have quick start to new season
Brazilian sugar mills were quick to start cane crushing in the new center-south season, processing 3 million tonnes in the first half of March, 88% more than in the same period a year earlier, cane industry group Unica said on Wednesday. Brazil's cane crop year officially starts in April, but mills normally go ahead and kick off cane processing operations if they have cane ready in the fields to be crushed. The mills allocated 14% of the cane to produce sugar in the period compared with 6% in the first half of March last year.

Mar 26 -
U.S. adjusts sugar tariff-rate quota tranches -statement

The U.S. government made slight adjustments on Wednesday to its tariff-rate quota (TRQ) tranches for sugar imports, including modifications in the opening dates, according to a statement from the United States Trade Representative (USTR). A typographical error in the text announcing the third tranche, opened on Jan. 22, allowed it to be filled with 55,000 tonnes (raw value) instead of the 50,000 tonnes intended, the statement said.

Mar 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

As mentioned yesterday, volumes in London remained low yesterday and the market showed signs of recovery, at least at times. July 20 tested its 200-day moving average at GBP 1848 (high yesterday GBP 1847) and a firmer British pound also provided good resistance. Close nearly unchagend with GBP +3 at GBP 1826. New York seems to have bottomed out at around US$ 2200 for the time being last week and it looks like a mini-correction, at least from a chartist's point of view. End of July 20 NY US$ +25 at US$ 2267.
Certainly the generally firmer global economic climate contributed to a firmer day yesterday. The Dow Jones put in its best positive performance in over 90 years, closing over 11%, the Dax + a good 10% and the S&P also closed solidly at +9%.

Mar 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The weak opening did not really fit into the picture of our expectations for yesterday's trading day. July 20 opened weakly at GBP -20 and relatively quickly drew the low of GBP 1787 yesterday, certainly due to a weak morning in the equity markets. Over the day the market recovered and, taking into account the large speculative long position and a weak British pound or firm US dollar, we reached a high of GBP 1827 in the afternoon. Closing July 20 GBP +15 at GBP 1823. All in all, we are still within the range of last week. Volumes on both exchanges were significantly lower yesterday than last week and one could conclude that some risk has now been removed from the market. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire are at 1.623 million tonnes vs. 1.642 million tonnes (-1.2%) as of 22.03. Purchases in Ghana at the end of February were 680.139 mt vs. 678.151 mt (+0.29%). Good rainfall in Côte d'Ivoire sends a positive signal for the mid crop.

Mar 24 - Falling fuel prices, weak currency drive Brazil switch from ethanol to sugar
Brazilian mills are expected to make a sharp switch from ethanol to sugar production in the new season kicking off in the world's largest sugarcane producer, as falling gasoline prices and a weak currency reduce the biofuel's appeal, analysts said. Mills in Brazil have the flexibility to partially switch cane toward sugar or ethanol production, depending on market prices. For the last two years, they have allocated an all-time low amount of cane for sugar, around 34%, as ethanol gave them higher returns.

 
 
Mar 24 - India’s sugar exports seen a fifth lower than earlier estimate - trade body
India is likely to export 4.5 million tonnes of sugar in 2019/20, down almost a fifth from an earlier estimate, as a drop in global prices due to the coronavirus outbreak makes overseas sales unprofitable for mills, a senior industry official said. Lower exports from the world’s biggest sugar producer could support global prices that have fallen nearly a third from a Feb. 12 peak and help rivals such as Brazil to increase exports.
 
 

Mar 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Even before the official opening in New York, it was clear that this Friday afternoon would continue to be marked by liquidations from the long position. Selling pressure from New York caused the July 20 London date to drop rapidly to lows of GBP 1765, where the long term trend line (see Friday's report) around GBP 1770 provided good support. Price hedges (futures and fixed-price purchases) then provided the correspondingly strong countermovement. July 20 recovered and ended the day positively with GBP +14 at GBP 1808. Commitment of Traders as of 17.03. provided a surprise on Friday evening after all. With a reduction in the gross long position of 49,276 lots, within managed money, it was the largest reduction in a position since records began. The net reduction was still an impressive 36,486 lots. In net terms, both exchanges now have a long position of 136,007 lots.

Mar 23 - Speculators switch to net short position in raw sugar futures
Speculators switched from net long to a net short position in raw sugar futures on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to March 17, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed on Friday. They are holding now a net short position of 5,519 contracts in raw sugar, having cut 32,171 contracts. 

Mar 20 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Report, week 16-20 March 2020 (IPC)

- As the outbreak of Corona Virus continued to widely spread across Europe and America, global pepper business has continued to slow down. Market this week showed a negative outlook with no origins reported an increase. In local market, as the harvest come to full swing, Malabar black pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 4,043 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with a 6% and 7% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,525 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,791 per Mt for white pepper. The decrease of Indonesia black and white pepper could be contributed to the weakening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (6% depreciation to an average of IDR 15,422 @ USD 1).Malaysian black and white pepper were also traded domestically with a decrease by 3% respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,698 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,047 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported steady averaging at USD 1,612 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,408 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was traded with 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,845 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable and traded its white pepper at an average of USD 4,215 per Mt locally.
- International market also showed a negative outlook with no origins reported an increase. India black pepper was reported stable and trade its Malabar black pepper internationally at an average of USD 4,312 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with a 6% and 7% deficit respectively as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,895 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,323 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with a 7%, 9% and 10% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 1,980 per Mt, USD 2,010 per Mt and USD 2,910 per Mt respectively. Whilst, China white pepper was reported steady and trade its white pepper at an average of USD 4,415 per Mt.

Mar 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The pre-market announcement of the two exchanges ICE NY & EU to introduce a "reportable limit" of 50 lots (instead of 1000 lots) and 1000 lots (instead of 7500 lots) for the spot month May 20, led to a massively weaker opening of the spot month May 20 of GBP -60 and a real collapse of the near May / July 20 spread from GBP +58 to GBP +8. The other months did not move any more and the back half of the board (from March 20) was marked by further price hedges at weak volumes. The Bank of England lowered its interest rate for the second time this week from 0.25% now to 0.10% and led to a further depreciation of the British pound yesterday morning, which however continued to recover in the afternoon. The May 20 in London continues to move towards GBP 1750, received good support at GBP 1773, where the long-term uptrend since 2017 is located. Closing price May 20 GBP -21 at GBP 1794. New York July 20 $ -45 at $ 2229.

Mar 20 - U.S. biofuel group says ethanol industry sharply cutting production 
Many U.S. ethanol plants have slashed production over the past week or idled entirely as the coronavirus outbreak cut into fuel consumption and cratered margins to refine the corn-based fuel, the head of a biofuel trade group said on Thursday. Renewable Fuels Association Chief Executive Geoff Cooper said on a conference call he expects ethanol production to fall further, and called on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to ease strain on the industry by ceasing to grant small refineries waivers from the nation's biofuels mandates.

Mar 20 - Coronavirus border curbs disrupt EU food supplies - industry 
Restrictions imposed by some European Union countries at their borders with other member states in response to the coronavirus outbreak are disrupting food supplies, representatives of the industry and farmers said on Thursday. More than a dozen EU countries have tightened or even shut borders that are usually open and uncontrolled, in response to the spreading epidemic.

 Mar 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It was a mixed trading day yesterday. The weak British pound vs. all other currencies and legitimate concerns about maintaining supply chains (mainly intra-EU supply and not yet shipments from origin) made for a reasonably firm day. July 20 tested its 200 day moving average at GBP 1848, only to drop GBP 50 to test the GBP 1800 mark. Closing price July 20 GBP -8 at GBP 1815. Although a theoretical opening of GBP -11 (based on closing NY) would be expected, the British Pound continued to lose significant value overnight and is now at 0.9430 vs. EUR and 1.15 vs. Opening DAX more or less unchanged. We are in daily contact with our suppliers / customers. Except for delays in the direction of Eastern Europe, due to stricter controls at the border to Poland, there are currently no restrictions on delivery capacity. We will keep you up to date.

Mar 19 - ICE warns of grading delays for NY cocoa, arabica coffee 
ICE Futures U.S. (IFUS) cannot ensure that the sampling of cocoa and arabica coffee can be completed in time for May 2020 contracts due to "developing conditions related to the coronavirus", the exchange said in a notice. "IFUS is continuing to accept requests to sample and grade cocoa and coffee pursuant to the relevant rules for the respective contract, albeit at reduced capacity," the notice, issued late on Tuesday, said.    

Mar 19 - Brazil mills have early start to season, to boost sugar output - FCStone 
Brazilian sugar and ethanol producers have started cane crushing for the new crop earlier than in the previous season, and are expected to produce more sugar and less ethanol, said consultancy and broker INTL FCStone on Wednesday. It said in a note to clients that 33 mills were operational in the main center-south region in the first half of March, 22% more than in the year-ago period. Brazil's center-south crop starts officially in April, but some companies kick-off crushing earlier.

 
 
Mar 19 - Suedzucker says sugar supply secure despite high demand 
Suedzucker, Europe's largest sugar refiner, said on Wednesday sugar supplies are secure despite heavy demand as some European consumers stockpile during the coronavirus crisis. "As a producer of food and animal feed, we are part of the 'critical infrastructure’' that receives special support from politics and authorities to ensure that people in many countries continue to be supplied with food," said Suedzucker CEO Niels Poerksen in a statement.

Mar 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

For much of yesterday, the market moved leisurely towards the GBP 1750 level and July 20 traded at lows of GBP 1782, but by late afternoon there was at least a small sign of life and the markets recovered slightly. Closing GBP +15 at GBP 1823, the lows and the weak British Pound yesterday once again invited the industry to extend cover accordingly.
It remains a daily mystery as to how our cocoa market will react or will react to the overall circumstances. The stock markets opened weakly again today (DAX -4%).

Mar 17 - Uganda February Coffee Exports Rise 46% as Harvest Peaks (DJ)
  Coffee exports from Uganda, Africa's top robusta grower, jumped by 46% in February as the main harvest in the central and eastern growing region peaked, the state-run Uganda Coffee Development Authority said Tuesday.
  Shipments rose to 472,994 60-kilo bags compared with 323,182 bags in the same month last season, UCDA said. Exports for the bitter-tasting robusta coffee beans, used mainly in espressos and blends, increased by 49% to reach 388,646 bags, while the mild tasting Arabica beans had a 36% jump.
  The coffee body warned that the coronavirus pandemic will likely suppress global coffee demand and prices. Uganda exports its coffee in bean form mainly to European, U.S. and Asian markets.
  February shipments brought the cumulative five-month coffee exports for the 2019-20 season to 2.1 million bags, representing a 17% rise in volumes. Cumulative export earnings rose 14% to $206 million. Coffee is Uganda's leading export crop.
  Coffee harvesting in the central and eastern regions has closed, and the second harvest in the west and southern regions is expected to commence later next month. Uganda is Africa's top coffee exporter. Uganda, which exported some 4.4 million bags of coffee last season, expects a bumper crop of around 5.2 million bags this season, boosted by favorable weather and maturing plantations.

Mar 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

 The disaster on the financial and commodity markets yesterday did not stop at cocoa. May 20 traded up to GBP 1812 levels and is gradually moving towards GBP 1800. If we break through these levels, we should be able to tackle the GBP 1750 levels from the beginning of the year, where the big rally began, ending in highs of GBP 2070. Closing price May 20 GBP -29 at GBP 1827. In New York the losses (some in triple digits) were much heavier and there May 20 mi $ -94 closed at $ 2331. New York lost $615 or a massive 21% in the last 5 weeks alone! March 20 LDN left the board yesterday with a discount of GBP 90 and an open interest of 884 lots. Arrivals in the Ivory Coast as of 15.03 were 1.597 mt vs. 1.604 mt from the previous year (-0.4%).

 Mar 17 - World's 2020 sugar consumption view cut by 2 mln T due to pandemic - Czarnikow 
International sugar trader Czarnikow on Monday cut its estimate for global sugar consumption this year by nearly 2 million tonnes, saying the coronavirus pandemic will reduce overall sugar use in countries that imposed lockdowns. In a note to clients, the global trader headquartered in Britain said it is reducing by 5% the expected sugar consumption in countries such as China, Germany, France, Italy and South Korea, among others, where isolation measures were adopted to help contain the spread of the virus.

Mar 17 - Ivory Coast's abundant rains boost cocoa mid-crop - farmers 
Well above-average rains punctuated by sun last week in most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions should boost the April to September mid-crop, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is in its dry season from November to March, when downpours are scarce or poor. Farmers said no significant volumes of beans of the October to March main crop were currently leaving the bush, and that some buyers were rejecting deliveries of small and poor-quality beans.

Mar 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Also today it is difficult to give an explanation / analysis of the last days. One thing is for sure, the specs have started the events (better said the storm) of the last weeks with a record long position and are currently liquidating further and further. Commitment of Traders as of 10.03. show a reduction of the net long position from 22.820 lots to 172.493 net long. Within Managed Money there were even more than 30k lots and from Tuesday to Friday another 20-25k lots were probably liquidated. Cocoa was also traded on Friday, May 20 came under further pressure and traded at lows of GBP 1841, narrowly missing Monday's lows at GBP 1838. Closing GBP -13 at GBP 1856. London lost only a moderate 1.6% overall last week, while New York lost a massive 5.6%. The industry continued to follow the market on Friday. The DAX opened weaker today at around -6%.

Mar 16 - Costa Rica coffee harvest rebounds in 2019-20 after slump 
Costa Rica's coffee harvest jumped by 12% in the 2019-2020 season, recovering from a sharp fall in the previous period, the government said on Friday. During 2019-2020 the harvest rose to 1,915,959 bushels (46-kilo bags) up from 1,717,959 units the prior season, the Costa Rican presidency said in a statement. The harvest dropped by 14.6% on the year during the 2018-19 season.

Mar 13 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 9-13 March 2020 (IPC)
- Similar to the previous week, business hasn't picked up following the impact of the outbreak of Corona Virus. Market this week showed a mixed response with negative outlook as only China origin recorded an increase. In local market, as the harvest come to full swing Malabar black pepper was traded with a 4% deficit as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,046 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with a 4% and 2% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,624 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,005 per Mt for white pepper. The decrease of Indonesia black and white pepper could be contributed to the weakening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (2% depreciation to an average of IDR 14,476 @ USD 1). Malaysian black and white pepper were also traded domestically with a decrease of 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,745 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,131 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,619 per Mt whilst Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 2,411 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper was traded with 2% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,882 per Mt. Contrary to other origins, China white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week and traded its white pepper at an average of USD 4,200 per Mt locally as business in China started to gradually resume back.
- International market also showed a mixed response as only China recorded an increase. India was reported trading its Malabar black pepper internationally with the same 4% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,317 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with a 3% and 2% deficit respectively as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,017 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,575 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported stable at an average of USD 2,120 per Mt, USD 2,220 per Mt and USD 3,220 per Mt respectively. China reported to be trading its white pepper internationally with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,400 per Mt.

Mar 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It is hard to get a clear picture of our small cocoa market in the current situation. May 20 lost over GBP 35 in the first 10 minutes, consolidated for a short time and after opening in New York, further aggressive selling caused all quotations to collapse again, which not even a weak British pound could compensate. May 20 traded at lows of GBP 1859, only finding support at the 200 day moving average around GBP 1860. Closing May 20 GBP -52 at GBP 1869. New York broke through the long term moving average, closing below it with a loss off $130 / closing $2495.The industry took advantage of yesterday's weakness and throughout the board, the market was hedged.
On Monday March 20 leaves the board and rain has returned to West Africa in good quantities...but this seems to be of only marginal interest at the moment.

Mar 13 - U.S. ethanol industry 'bleeding' on oil collapse, coronavirus
U.S. ethanol producers are feeling the pain as margins on the corn-based fuel slumped this week to an eight-year low for this time of year, weighed by concerns over lower fuel demand from the coronavirus and the recent collapse in oil prices. The coronavirus outbreak, which has infected more than 126,000 people worldwide, is sapping demand for fuel as countries restrict travel and local governments try to prevent the spread of the outbreak.

Mar 13 - Colombian coffee make the most of rising prices, high premiums and fall in peso 
Colombian coffee producers are benefiting from the falling value of the peso against the dollar, rising internal prices and a higher premium, which will help them recoup losses from recent years, the head of the National Federation of Coffee Growers said. Coffee growers in the South American country, the largest producer of washed arabica, have faced a crisis in recent years because of low prices.

Mar 13 - Petrobras cuts Brazil gasoline prices by near 10%; sugar prices tumble
Brazil's state-controlled oil company Petrobras cut gasoline prices at refineries in the country by almost 10% on Thursday, the first cut since this week's oil price collapse, a move that could boost sugar production and reduce ethanol output. The oil company, which has a near refining monopoly in Brazil, reduced gasoline prices by 0.16 real per liter, or 9.5%, and also cut diesel prices by 0.125 real per liter, or 6.5%.

Mar 12 - Sugar Prices Drop in Surprise To Traders Expecting Shortfall (WSJ)
The slide in oil prices and the spread of the coronavirus are causing collateral damage in the sugar market.
     Raw-sugar futures, which trade in New York, tumbled 18% to 13 cents a pound through Wednesday morning since reaching their highest level in more than two years on Feb. 11. The drop has caught out traders who had expected prices to keep rising due to adverse weather for farmers in India and Thailand, two of the world's largest producers of the sweetener.
     Monday's rout in oil prices -- the biggest since the Persian Gulf War in 1991 -- added to existing pressure on sugar, which is sensitive to swings in the energy market. And the spreading coronavirus is expected to weigh on demand for soft drinks and other sugary products.
     Sugar mills in Brazil are mostly able to convert sugar cane into either sugar or ethanol, a biofuel widely used to power cars in the Latin American country. When energy prices decline, it incentivizes mills to produce more sugar and less ethanol, lifting global supplies of the sweetener. "The main reason why the price has come down over the past few days is the massive decrease in oil prices, which makes ethanol production less attractive," said Michaela Helbing-Kuhl, an agricultural commodities analyst at Commerzbank. "So people expect more sugar as opposed to ethanol to be produced, which is pushing down prices."
     Oil prices fell again Wednesday after Saudi Arabia fired another salvo in its oil-price war with Russia, unveiling plans to lift production capacity to a record 13 million barrels a day. Brent-crude futures lost 2.2% to $36.38 a barrel.
     Meanwhile sugar demand could fall by 800,000 tons in China and 150,000 tons in Italy this year as supply chains are disrupted and quarantine measures stop people from eating out, according to Stephen Geldart, head of analysis at trading house Czarnikow.    "Sugar consumption globally will drop this year because of the virus," Mr. Geldart said, adding that it is difficult to estimate exactly how much demand will fall in different countries.
     The world had been facing a shortfall of the sweetener before the recent change in circumstances. Global consumption was set to exceed production by 9.4 million metric tons in the 2019-20 season, which ends in September, the International Sugar Organization said in late February.
     But with Brazilian producers gearing up to produce more sugar, that deficit could flip to a surplus in the 2020-21 season, according to Dr. Helbing-Kuhl. Hedge funds and other investors have unwound wagers that sugar prices would rise in recent weeks, analysts say, exacerbating the decline.
     Brazil's weakening real -- which fell to its lowest level against the dollar this millennium on Monday -- has also driven sugar prices down. Because sugar is bought and sold in terms of dollars on international markets, exporters receive more revenue in local-currency terms when the real depreciates, encouraging them to ramp up exports. The fall in the real has largely insulated sugar producers in Brazil from the decline in sugar prices, analysts say. Farmers in other export-oriented countries, such as Australia, are more exposed.

Mar 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday the firm performance of the previous day continued. At GBP 1933, May reached 20 new highs after the collapse of a week ago and has now returned to more or less the same levels before the free fall. Closing price May 20 GBP +35 at GBP 1921 and this is now above the long-term moving averages of GBP 1889 / 100 days and GBP 1854 / 200 days. We do not believe the "story" about fresh new longs at the moment BUT it seems (once again) that our niche market is moving against all other markets and seems to be the safer haven for speculators / investors. With the S&P losing about 20% and crude oil about 50%, the cocoa market is back to the above mentioned unchanged levels. The corona virus has now also reached West Africa, with isolated cases in Ivory Coast, Togo and Nigeria. Next resistance is expected at GBP 1952 and GBP 1980, with moving averages providing support on the downside.

Mar 12 - French sugar group Tereos asks suppliers for price reduction - letter 
French group Tereos, the world's third-largest sugar maker, has asked regular suppliers for a 7% price reduction to help it through difficult conditions created by tumbling sugar prices, a letter seen by Reuters showed. Like many of its European peers, Tereos has felt pressure from sliding global prices coinciding with a surge in supplies, partly due to the scrapping of European Union production quotas in 2017. "The economic circumstances since the end of the quotas remain difficult, thus creating unpredictable conditions," the letter to suppliers said.

   Mar 12 - Malaysia's sugar purchases from India hit record amid diplomatic spat - trade 
India's exports of sugar to Malaysia so far in 2020 have nearly tripled over the figure for all of last year, as Kuala Lumpur steps up purchases to placate New Delhi in a trade dispute that halted its palm oil exports to India, trade officials said.The record buying could also help India, the world's biggest producer of sugar, to cut stockpiles that are squeezing domestic prices.
 
 

Mar 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After an almost uninterrupted fall of over GBP 200, yesterday was a day to catch your breath in the markets. May 20 was firmer right at the beginning, but was difficult to close the gap (see yesterday's report) due to further liquidation of the longs. In the last hour before the close, May reached new highs of GBP 1891, closing GBP +37 at GBP 1886.

Mar 11 - USDA cuts sugar stocks, signals additional imports needed 
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has asked the Department of Commerce to boost sugar imports because supply conditions point to a shortage in the U.S. market, according to a USDA statement Tuesday. The statement was released shortly after the monthly supply and demand report (WASDE) indicated a cut in the closely watched sugar stocks to use ratio for the 2019/20 crop year to 7.2% from 12.4% a month earlier.

 Mar 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Even before the opening in London, the difficult global economic environment and the flight from any risk (the question now is...is cocoa a risk?) were already setting the tone for a rough trading day. Instead of the announced firm opening, the market fell to GBP -26, leading to further strong liquidation of the speculative longs and the next support at GBP 1853 (200 days moving average) was quickly reached and broken. May 20 saw another 2 month low of GBP 1838. Closing price May 20 GBP -37 at GBP 1849. The gap from the opening between GPB 1875 / 1864 has not yet been closed, this should theoretically encourage technical traders to close this...but in the current situation we do not allow ourselves any analysis. The industry was clearly frightened and only cautiously accompanied the market with further price hedges.

Mar 10 - Record arabica coffee premiums give bullish signal for funds
Record arabica premiums in the physical markets could spur fund-buying as traders expect they will have a knock-on effect on the availability of coffee stocks for delivery when exchange contracts expire. ICE certified stocks began drifting lower last month. They are at 2.1 million bags, but traders expect them to fall well below 2 million this year as soaring premiums make exchange stock by far the cheapest source of coffee.

  Mar 10 - Rainfall in Ivory Coast gives cocoa farmers hope over mid-crop
Above average rainfall last week in several areas of Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions could boost the April-to-September mid-crop, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is in its dry season from November to March, when downpour is scarce or poor. Farmers in villages said the October-to-March main crop was tailing off.

Mar 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

On Friday, liquidations from the long position once again put heavy pressure on the market. May 20 traded sustainably below the GBP 1900 mark, hit new lows at GBP 1875 and ended the day at GBP -12 at GBP 1886. New York May 20 lost a lot more at $36 and ended the day at $ 2561. Arbitrage approached GBP 20 and LDN is trading "only" at a discount of GBP -79 / May 20. Weekly losses LDN - 3.5%, NY -4%. Commitment of Traders as of 03.03 show a reduction of the net long position of just under 11k lots, net combined now 195,313. Within managed money a clearer trend can be seen, here gross in LDN "only" a good 4k lots were liquidated, in New York it was just under 11k lots. However, if the market has lost a further GBP 70/$100 since Tuesday, these figures are halfway out of date. The ICCO shows a deficit of 85,000mt for the current 19/20 crop and is therefore (more or less) in the middle of the market. The industry was also increasingly involved in price hedging on Friday.

Mar 09 - ICCO expects 2019/20 global cocoa deficit of 85,000 T 
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) on Friday forecast there would be a global cocoa deficit of 85,000 tonnes in the 2019/20 season. The deficit was smaller than the estimated 107,000 tonnes in 2018/19 (October/September) after a rise in production more than offset an increase in grindings.

Mar 09 - ICE sugar speculators cut net longs in week - CFTC 
Sugar speculators on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cut their net long positions in the latest week ended March 3, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said in data released Friday.  The speculator group cut its net long position in sugar by 43,544 contracts to 74,267 in the week. Cocoa speculators also cut their net long position by 8,282 contracts to 33,277 in the week. 

Mar 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday, the downward trend that was ultimately seen continued, even though low volume did not indicate particularly strong activity. The GBP 1900 mark was broken in London on May 20 and found good support there. Closing price near the lows of GBP 1896 at GBP 1898 / GBP -32, but it remains to be mentioned that London is still only a co-driver in the last move. NY broke through the $ 2600 mark in May 20 and closed, similar to London, below the important psychological barrier. Closing price NY May 20 $ -29 at $ 2597, both markets reached their lowest closing prices in 8 weeks and are now around 50% retracement since the rise at the beginning of the year. The current president of Côte d'Ivoire, Ouattara, announced yesterday not to run for another election (side note: with an age of 78 years, he wouldn´t be allowed to do so constitutionally anyhow).

Mar 06 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 2-6 March 2020 (IPC)
- As the result of the Corona Virus outbreak, global pepper market has been greatly affected as business has been reported to slow down almost in all of the major market in the world. Market this week showed a mixed response as only Viet Nam and Malaysia origin recorded an increase. In local market, as the harvest come to full swing Malabar black pepper was traded with a 4% deficit as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 4,203 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with a 2% and 1% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,684 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,053 per Mt for white pepper. The decrease of Indonesia black and white pepper could be contributed to the weakening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (2% depreciation to an average of IDR 14,248 @ USD 1). Malaysian black and white pepper were traded domestically with an increase of 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,767 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,172 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported stable with an average of USD 1,635 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,410 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was also reported steady at an average of USD 2,937 per Mt. Having been inactive for the past six weeks due to the Corona Virus outbreak, China market resumed with trading its white pepper at an average of USD 4,175 per Mt locally.
- International market also showed a mixed response as only Viet Nam recorded an increase. India was reported trading its Malabar black pepper internationally with the same 4% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,477 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with a 2% and 1% deficit respectively as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,089 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,632 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, despite harvesting season, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with a significant increase of 5%, 5% and 3% respectively as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,110 per Mt, USD 2,210 per Mt and USD 3,210 per Mt respectively. China reported trading its white pepper internationally with an average of USD 4,375 per Mt.
- US market this week was reported positively with real demand gradually returning. Brazil price in US market continued to be more competitive despite low in quantity. Whilst, Indonesia black and white pepper were reported to be offered with a 2% deficit as compared to the previous week offers. Viet Nam pepper price was reported to increase by 10% contributed to the recent handling of the Virus Outbreak.

Mar 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The short firming after opening immediately experienced headwinds from new sales and was thus only of short duration. Quotations repeatedly tested the 50-day moving average over the course of the day at an unspectacular range and actually closed slightly below it. At GBP 1930 (GBP-14) Basis May20, it was the weakest close since mid-January. With volumes continuing to decline, also due to the dwindling participation of the specs due to decreasing volatility, which makes sense a good week before the Last Trading Day of the Mar20 date. From the origin positive news about colder weather and new rainfall in West Africa - it seems that the dry phase is over. Meanwhile in London, 601 new lots were successfully graded: 3 BDUs Cameroon and 3 BDUs new crop Nigeria, as well as an SDU Congo.

Mar 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A firm morning session with highs of GBP 1978 was soon followed by further selling pressure. May 20 plummeted to lows of GBP 1942 and tested the 50 day moving average at GBP 1940. New York May 20 continued yesterday to break the even more important support of the 100 day moving average at $ 2631 / Low $ 2653. Closing London May GBP -8 at GBP 1949, New York May $20 -8 at $2653, London May 20 was the weakest closing price in a good month and the industry continued to actively support the market with price hedging yesterday. It is believed that since last week the cover has been extended for about 3-4 weeks. A major chocolate producer reported a 6% increase in sales last year, but the sub-sentence mentioned a possible "LID effect" in relation to chocolate consumption.

Mar 03 - Coffee Rally Still Going Strong ( DJ )
- The rally in coffee futures is extending, with the May contract on the Intercontinental Exchange up 5.1% to over $1.20 per pound. It's the first time since early January that coffee has traded over that mark, bringing coffee closer to the levels that it started the year at. A slimmer supply in Brazil is one reason for the uptick, which has brought coffee up 16.7% in the past month.

Mar 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The GBP +20 firm opening immediately triggered new long selling, which unwound the strengthening and drove prices further down. May20 tested the 50-day moving average at GBP 1938, but quickly found support at GBP 1930, and with the weakening British Pound on its back, the industry took advantage of this correction to cautiously extend or maintain its cover. However, hedge sales soon countered this. The May20 closed almost unchanged at GBP 1957 (GBP +2) with a range of over GBP 40. The Mar/May spread widened to GBP -45 discount. While London is technically in neutral territory, NY is now heavily oversold. Despite the temporary correction, Côte d'Ivoire (CCC) returned to the market after a longer period and also reported good arrivals in the last week of 34,117 vs. 26,679 last year (total 1.545 mt vs. 1.526 mt / +1.2%).

Mar 03 - Brazil 2020/21 coffee crop seen at 67.5 mln bags - Rabobank survey
Brazil's coffee crop in the upcoming 2020/21 season is expected to total 67.5 million 60-kg bags, according to a Rabobank crop survey published on Monday. The crop was expected to be made up of a record 49 million bags of arabica and 18.5 million of conillon (robusta) coffee. 

Mar 03 - Ivorian dry weather raises mid-crop concerns - farmers
Below-average rainfall mixed with heat in Ivory Coast’s central cocoa-growing regions last week raised concerns over the mid-crop outlook, though there was sufficient moisture in other regions, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is in its dry season from November to March, with most farmers reporting supply tightness from the bush as the main crop tails off. 

Mar 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The general weakness and uncertainty of the financial and commodity markets also affected our cocoa market on Friday. Further liquidations from the long position put the market under heavy pressure and May 20 traded to a low of GBP 1933, closing GBP -32 at GBP 1955. Next support in London GBP 1928 and then GBP 1900. New York broke through the important technical support at $ 2702 and lost $ 73, closing May 20 $ 2672. The industry accompanied the market on Friday with price hedges to at least maintain the generally short cover. Commitment of Traders as of 25.02. shows only a marginal plus of 589 lots, but the last reporting period is outside the last weak performance. London ended the week with -4.2%, New York with -6% (compared to crude oil -15%).

Mar 02 - ICE sugar speculators raise net longs in latest week
Sugar speculators on the Intercontinental Exchange raised their net long position in the week ended Feb. 25, the CFTC said in a weekly report on Friday. Hedge funds and other money managers raised their net long position by 19,713 contracts to 117,812 in the week. Cocoa speculators also raised their net long position, adding 1,006 contracts to 41,559 in the week. 

 
 
Mar 02 - ISO sees global sugar deficit of 9.44 mln T in 2019/20
The International Sugar Organization on Friday forecast a global sugar deficit of 9.44 million tonnes in the 2019/20 season, the largest shortfall in 11 years. The deficit was significantly wider than the inter-governmental body's previous forecast of 6.12 million issued in November.
 
 

Feb 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Pending further liquidation of the NY longs, it was a subdued morning in London. However, even the opening in New York did not bring any movement to the markets. The May 20  traded in a range of GBP 1975 / 1996 and found good resistance at the GBP 2000 mark. Closing price May GBP +4 at GBP 1987. Fundamentally, the news that major international players were selling around 60,000mt of Ivorian cocoa to local exporters to avoid defaulting on contracts occupied the market. The deficit expectations for the current crop continue to diverge, the estimates now range from -75 to -200,000mt, depending on the book / position of course.

Feb 28 - Cocoa traders agree to sell beans to Ivorian exporters facing default - sources 
Multinational cocoa exporters operating in Ivory Coast have agreed to sell their domestic counterparts 60,000 of the 150,000 tonnes the Ivorian companies say they need to avoid default, three sources involved in the talks said on Thursday.  The agreement was reached during negotiations this week between the GNI, Ivory Coast's traders association; GEPEX, the body representing the multinationals; and the Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC), the industry regulator, the sources said. 

Feb 28 - Weekly Int'l Pepper market report, week 24-28 February 2020 (IPC)
- As most origins' currency weakened against US Dollar, market this week showed a mixed response with a rather negative outlook as only Viet Nam origin recorded an increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with a 2% deficit as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 4,372 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with a 2% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,715 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,073 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysian black and white pepper were also traded domestically with a 2% and 1% deficit respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,751 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,143 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 1,629 per Mt for black pepper whilst Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 2,407 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported steady at an average of USD 2,929 per Mt.
- International market also showed a mixed response as only Viet Nam recorded an increase. India was reported trading its Malabar black pepper internationally with the same a 2% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,651 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with a 2% deficit respectively as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 2,127 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,658 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, despite being in harvest season, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with a significant increase of 6%, 5% and 4% respectively as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,005 per Mt, USD 2,105 per Mt and USD 3,105 per Mt respectively.
- No new development of China market as it continued to be reported inactive due to the Corona Virus outbreak.

Feb 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The general panic in the financial markets did not leave commodity markets unaffected yesterday. Driven by selling pressure from New York (the May Arbitrage converged from GBP -155 to GBP -130), London also broke through the GBP 2000 level, traded at lows of GBP 1977 and ended the day at GBP -20 from GBP 1983. 2 weeks before the last trading day of March 20, the March / May spread narrowed to GBP -16, with low volumes. New York lost $ 20 $ 67 in May and closed at $ 2739. Here the support around $ 2700 should be observed, some experts then see air up to $ 2400. However, due to LID, structure, deficit expectations, elections, price cover etc...such a collapse of the quotations is rather unlikely.

Feb 27 - British Sugar still sees EU sugar consolidation 
Sugar production will fall in the least efficient areas of the European Union in coming years which should lead to sales opportunities for British Sugar if there is a tariff-free trade pact, the company's managing director Paul Kenward said. The EU abolished sugar production quotas in September 2017 in a move which had been expected to lead to a concentration of production in lower cost producers such as France and Germany while output was seen declining in southern Europe.

 
Feb 27 - Indonesia agri ministry recommends 130,000 T white sugar imports - official 
Indonesia's agricultural ministry has recommended imports of 130,000 tonnes of white sugar by May, as the sugarcane harvest season in the country is expected to start late, said the head of the ministry's food security body, Agung Hendriadi. The harvest and milling season, which usually starts in May, is likely to be delayed this year to the end of June, Hendriadi told reporters on Thursday, adding that Indonesia may prioritise purchase from India.

Feb 26 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It was a chewy day yesterday. Over the whole curve the traded volume in London was just 16000 lots, most of the time the quotations meandered around the unchanged mark. The May 20 date briefly touched the 2000 level again, but a break through downwards failed and it finally closed at GBP 2003 (GBP -5). Once again, the indecision/uncertainty that currently characterises market behaviour was evident. However, unlike in other markets, the general nervousness of the spreading corona virus has apparently not yet reached the cocoa markets. Declining exports from Ecuador have been reported from the origin. Furthermore, of course, we continue to hear about above-average dryness in West Africa. In Côte d'Ivoire, rainfall was 3.6 mm last week, a full 7.2 mm below the 5-year average.

Feb 26 - India's sugar production to stay higher, surplus looms
India looks likely to produce 26.5 million tonnes of sugar this year, half a million tonnes more than a previous forecast of a leading producers' body, exacerbating surplus supplies in the world's biggest producer of the sweetener. Bountiful sugar output in India, also the world's No. 1 consumer, in the current 2019/20 season will leave around 6 million tonnes of surplus for the next year beginning October 2019, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said in a statement.

 
Feb 26 - Domestic Ivorian cocoa exporters competing with multinationals fear bankruptcy
Domestic Ivorian cocoa exporters fear going bankrupt because they cannot compete with the higher prices multinational companies are paying for beans, the Ivory Coast's traders association (GNI) told Reuters. Western chocolate companies such as Lindt, Hershey and Ferrero pay a premium for sustainable cocoa made with fair trade certification, buying mainly from multinational companies such as Cargill, Olam and Barry Callebaut.

 
Feb 26 - Four Russian sugar factories suspend output on low domestic prices
Four Russian sugar plants will not operate in the 2020/21 season, the country's union of sugar producers said on Tuesday, amid domestic oversupply and low prices. Russia has doubled sugar output over the past decade to reduce its reliance on imports, and the resulting fall in domestic prices has pressured producers' profitability.
 
 

Feb 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Both cocoa markets yesterday joined the overall rather risk-averse picture of most commodity markets, which were cautious due to the spread of the coronavirus. In addition, the strong GBP and the extreme long position of the specs continue to be a factor. As a result, prices in both markets lost ground, with the May20 testing the GBP 2000 level, but soon found support at GBP 1997 and finally closed at GBP 2008 (-GBP 32 / -1.6%). It remains doubtful, however, that this move marks the beginning of a serious correction as the market continues its inverse structure from July 20 onwards. Volume remains low (9656 lots at base May20) and open interest is gradually declining. The May/Jul20 spread finally converged to GBP +2, and arbitrage trading was quite volatile in a range of GBP 15 in the nearby positions. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire now stand at 1.51m tonnes, up 0.6% year-on-year.

Feb 25 - India reallocates sugar exports quotas to boost shipments 
India has reallocated unused sugar exports quotas of more than 600,000 tonnes among mills after some producers failed to ship due to a drop in output, a government circular said on Monday. The redistribution of quotas could lift exports from the world's biggest sugar producer in coming months and may weigh on global prices that hit a 2-1/2 year high earlier this month.

 
 Feb 25 -
Ivory Coast weather offers mixed prospect for cocoa mid-crop - farmers 

Below-average rains in some of Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions last week could delay the April to September mid-crop, while there was good rainfall elsewhere, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is in its dry season, which runs from November to March.

 Feb 25 -
Kenya pledges to follow through on sugar factory privatisations 

Kenya will privatise sugar factories and impose an additional tax as it tries to revive the industry, President Uhuru Kenyatta's office said on Monday. Industry experts count the high cost of production and poorly funded government factories with aging machinery among the problems facing the East African nation's sugar industry.

Feb 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The firm conclusion of the previous day was followed by a more firm opening on Friday morning. May 20 traded to highs of GBP 2068, just GBP 6 away from the 3 year high of the beginning of the month, before light hedging pressure put pressure on the price. Volume was less than low at 1000 lots at midday. Closing price May GBP 20 GBP -9 at GBP 2040. London gained 1.9% last week, while New York lost 1.5%. Commitment of Traders on 18.02 shows a small reduction in the net long position of 4,358 lots, combined, both exchanges are now still at a strong 204,531 lots net long. Within the gross position Managed Money in New York one can clearly see the indecision even in the specs. Here, new longs of 5,222 lots now stand at 3,100 lots of fresh shorts. The market is and remains in a grey area.

Feb 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Quotations firmed right from the start, but due to the lack of volume of just 1000 lots, these gains were quickly wiped out. In the afternoon, specs buying in NY emerged, which reliably drove London prices north. May20 closed at GBP 2049 (GBP +23). The May/Jul20 spread was very active during the day, gaining GBP 10 and closing at a premium of GBP 7, after having traded at a discount in the previous days. This means that we now see the good old inverse and rather bullish structure again for the near future, with the exception of Mar20, which expires in just under three weeks. All in all, unusual market movements in recent weeks, as both markets are massively overbought. Only the weather in West Africa and the usual complaints of the - as always not mentioned - sources about drought and danger for the crop remain reliable.

Feb 21 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 17-21 February 2020 (IPC)
- Market this week showed a mixed response with a rather stable outlook as only India and Sri Lanka origin were reported with an increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,468 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 1,749 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,134 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysian black and white pepper were traded domestically with a 2% deficit respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 1,778 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,190 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported stable with an average of USD 1,592 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,134 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper had finally been traded positively as it recorded an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,932 per Mt.
- International market showed a rather stable outlook as only India recorded an increase. India was reported trading its Malabar black pepper internationally with the same increase of 2% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,748 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported stable with an average of USD 2,169 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,731 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable at an average of USD 1,897 per Mt, USD 1,997 per Mt and USD 2,997 per Mt respectively.
- China market continued to be reported inactive as no business took place due to the outbreak of Corona Virus.

Feb 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday the market brought little new information. After a weaker close of the previous day, a solid day followed. May 20 traded to a high of GBP 2033, closing near these highs at GBP 2026 / GBP +25, due to light speculative buying. 20,000 net volumes were almost deplorable and this speaks volumes about the market's ultimate lethargy. Another example of this...the May 20 futures contract traded last week at an average of GBP 2025, almost exactly at yesterday's close. But don't worry with the large spec position, the LID, structure, elections, weather etc. the market has a few surprises in store for us.

Feb 20 - Colombia launches $64-mln fund to steady coffee prices, protect farmers 
Colombia, the world's biggest producer of washed arabica coffee, launched a fund worth 218 billion pesos ($63.9 million) on Wednesday, aiming to stabilize coffee prices and shield farmers from volatile markets. Output of 14.8 million 60-kilogram bags in 2019, boosted by good weather, was Colombia's highest in 27 years, and the fund will allow coffee growers to cover production costs and avoid losses in case of unexpected falls in prices.

Feb 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A firm opening was followed by gradual and leisurely hedging pressure on yesterday's highs of GBP 2035 / May 20, which in turn led to a consolidation for much of the day at unchanged levels with low volume. Following the opening of New York, the corresponding reaction to last week's Commitment of Traders figures came. Liquidations out of long positions brought the market down to lows of GBP 1984. Closing price in May 20 then only GBP -16 at GBP 2001. The 2000 level should now hold again yesterday...The much longed/popular clear correction failed to materialize yesterday. We don't like to repeat ourselves but the price coverage of the industry is still very short and the longs, with their huge position, are only gradually liquidating as it seems. Who reacts / twitches now first. One thing is certain, the market will remain volatile!

Feb 19 - India's sugar exports could jump above 5 mln T on firm global prices 
India's sugar exports are likely to jump by nearly a third from a year ago to more than 5 million tonnes in 2019/20 as a rally in global sugar prices makes exports attractive, a leading trade body said on Tuesday. Higher exports by the world's biggest sugar producer could help compensate for a drop in shipments from Thailand, the world's second biggest exporter, and could cap prices.

 Feb 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Despite the absence of the New York market and despite the continuing strength of the British pound, speculative buying pushed the market further up north.  New origin offers and the resulting hedge sales finally resulted in restrained resistance; further attempts to strengthen the market failed. The May 20 date closed at GBP 2017 (GBP +10). As in previous weeks, the Sep/Dec20 spread traded wide apart at GBP -118, which is significant as Sep20 marks the last trading month before the introduction of the LID. Overall, there is still pressure on the butter ratio, also for the forward dates. The Harmattan in West Africa continues. Overall, it should not be overlooked that climate-related investments in the agricultural sector and government programmes (as in Ghana) as well as private engagements in Nigeria will contribute to an increase in production.

Feb 18 - Brazil's Cosan expects higher sugar output in 2020-21; shares fall
Brazilian sugar and energy company Cosan SAexpects cane crushing in the new center-south season that starts in April to be larger than volumes seen in the last two crops as favorable weather improves crop prospects.  Cosan, which partners with Royal Dutch Shell Plc in the 50-50 venture Raízen, the world's largest sugar maker, expects higher sugar production in Brazil in 2020-21 due to improved sugar prices in New York and a weaker Brazilian currency, which boosted forward sales by Brazilian mills.
 

Feb 18 - India's sugar exports could jump above 5 mln T on firm global prices - trade body
India is likely to export more than 5 million tonnes of sugar in 2019/20 as a rally in global sugar prices makes exports attractive for the mills in the world's biggest producer of the sweetener, a leading trade body said on Tuesday. "Indian sugar exports may get accelerated in the coming months, and could achieve more than 5 million tonnes," the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said in a statement.
 
 

Feb 17 - New York is closed today (Presidents Day), London is trading at normal hours

Feb 17 - Speculators in cocoa, cotton and sugar raised bullish bets last week - CFTC 
Speculators on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cocoa, cotton and sugar markets raised their net longs in the latest week, according to government data released Friday.  ICE cocoa speculators raised their net long position by 8,332 contracts to 42,628 in the week to Feb. 11. ICE cotton speculators raised their net long position by 2,392 contracts to 14,159 in the week, while ICE sugar speculators raised their net long position by 13,972 contracts to 91,609 in the week.  ICE coffee speculators increased their net short position by 12,534 contracts to 14,632 in the week.
 

Feb 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

 It was a halfway restrained trading day on Friday. May 20 traded around the 10 day moving average at GBP 2009 and the GBP 2000 level. Closing May 20 GBP -10 at GBP 2002, one of the reasons for the caution was certainly the expectation of the Commitments of Traders Report in the evening. As of 11.02 the net long continued to expand by 14,693 lots and now stands at a combined 208,889 lots net long. The driver here was Managed Money in New York, which alone increased by almost 9,000 lots. Purchases in Ghana as of 23.01 were 620,578 mt vs. 618,520 mt from the previous year. Still above last year's level even if the difference is gradually decreasing, which is nothing unusual at this time of year...

Feb 14 - Thai Sugar Shortfall Pushes Prices to Multiyear Highs
- Sugar prices are trading at multiyear highs in both New York and London, boosted by the prospect of a drastic fall in Thai production of the sweetener. Raw-sugar futures are up 0.9% at 19 US cents a pound, their highest price since January 2018. Refined-sugar futures, which trade in London, are also up 0.9% at $420 a metric ton, their highest price since July 2017. Traders have long expected sugar demand to exceed production in the current 2019-20 season, while worries about Thailand's upcoming crop are now leading many to expect an even larger deficit. "Since Thailand--the world's second-largest sugar exporter after Brazil--supplies many Asian countries with white sugar, they will now have to source some of their sugar elsewhere," Michaela Helbing-Kuhl at Commerzbank says.

Feb 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the halfway weak performance the day before, the selling pressure of the longs continued yesterday, albeit with the handbrake on. The May 20 date successfully tested the GBP 2000 level and traded down to lows of GBP 1990. The closing price was then almost unchanged at GBP +3 at GBP 2012. New York and especially the front structure makes one wonder. There, one day before First Notice Day, the spread traded close to March / May with a premium of up to US$ 100, which in turn led to an expansion of arbitrage from GBP -312 in March and GBP -199 in May LDN/ NY.

Feb 14 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market, week 10-14 February 2020 (IPC)
- Market this week showed a mixed response with a rather negative outlook as only India origin was reported with an increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,382 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 1,753 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,141 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysian black and white pepper were traded domestically with a 2% and 1% deficit respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 1,820 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,239 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, the ongoing harvest season in Viet Nam pushed Viet Nam black pepper to be traded with a 2% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,597 per Mt. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported steady with an average of USD 2,410 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper was traded with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,916 per Mt.
- International market followed similar trend in local market as only India recorded an increase. India was reported trading its Malabar black pepper internationally with the same increase of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,662 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported stable with an average of USD 2,174 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,740 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with a greater loss in international market and were traded with a 7%, 6% and 5% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,900 per Mt, USD 2,000 per Mt and USD 3,000 per Mt respectively. The decrease of FOB price in Viet Nam could be contributed to China demand in recent week was static and it has an impact due to Viet Nam was the biggest supplier for China pepper market.
- The Lunar New Year holiday which was followed immediately by the devastating outbreak of the Corona Virus have china market in the past 5 weeks were reported inactive as no business took place. Reports coming in from Hainan stating that people remain in their house and refraining from going out.

Feb 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After 3 days of consolidation at the GBP 2050 level, the expected counter-reaction occurred yesterday. We suspect the somewhat fresher and slowly nervous new "longs" liquidated a small part of their position yesterday. May 20 sought and found good support in the 10 day moving average at GBP 2005 / low GBP 2002. Closing GBP -26 at GBP 2009. The industry is slowly twitching its finger due to the low price coverage of 6-8 months. A significant correction should thus, for the time being, at least slow down. The origin is currently shining with absence of new pre-sales for 20/21. Either one plays a clear poker game or is sold better than the market expects. New York will be closed on Monday (Presidents Day)

Feb 13 - Rains, currency paint rosy outlook for Brazil sugar industry
Brazilian sugar and ethanol companies are likely entering their best season in a long time, with favorable weather boosting new-crop prospects and an all-time low local currency increasing returns on exports. Analysts have said 2020 could be a year of improvement for financially troubled mills hit by a long period of low global sugar prices and rising profits for more robust companies. 

 
 
Feb 13 -
EU sugar beet seen falling again this year after factory closures 

The European Union will likely see a further decrease in planted sugar beet this year following the closure of some factories, participants at the annual Dubai sugar conference said on Wednesday. Sugar production in the trading bloc has fallen for two successive seasons after an initial surge after the EU abolished production quotas in 2017.

Feb 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Despite a reasonable range of GBP 41, it looked like the third consecutive day of consolidation at current levels yesterday. May 20 ended the day at GBP -5 to GBP 2035, and after the fireworks of the past few weeks, funds and fundamental market participants are on the sidelines and are only accompanying the market with small volumes. If there is one thing we have learned... low volume and high volatility are a dangerous mix. In the grading room in London, over 1000 lots of regrades were under the knife, including a BDU (1000mt) Cameroon and a large proportion of old beans from the Ivory Coast. There is no shortage of cocoa...so why does the market behave like this? We are grateful for creative ideas, besides FUNDS / SPECS and LID...

Feb 12 - World's largest sugarcane plant mulls using corn to boost ethanol output 
The world's largest plant to process sugarcane, Brazil's Sao Martinho mill in Pradopolis, Sao Paulo state, could add corn as a second source of raw material to be able to boost its ethanol production, the company that controls the plant said on Tuesday. Several cane-based sugar and ethanol plants in Brazil are adding machinery to produce ethanol using corn as well, a model seen as profitable because plants use cane waste as an energy source to process the corn and expand production period to a full year, instead of just during the cane crop from April to December.

 
 
Feb 12 - Indonesia's white sugar output seen down in 2020, imports needed - industry group
Indonesia's white sugar output is seen between 2 million and 2.1 million tonnes this year, down about a tenth from last year on drought in previous years, an industry body said on Wednesday, and called for imports to keep prices stable.  The lower estimate could force Indonesia to import 1.4 million tonnes of raw sugar or an equivalent of 1.3 million tonnes of white sugar for household consumption, said Budi Hidayat, executive director of the Indonesia Sugar Association.

Feb 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Same game: Already after opening, the market received a further boost through new purchases by the funds to the highs of yesterday. The firm prices in turn led to new price hedges against origin cover, both for current and future crops, which put a stop to the rally. The May 20 date closed at GBP 2040 (GBP-15) after trading in a range of over the day of GBP 43. The ongoing dryness at in West Africa is causing great concern to farmers in Côte d'Ivoire and even more so in Ghana. Nevertheless, they are moderately optimistic for the current main harvest and the approaching mid crop, as new precipitation is expected soon. Meanwhile, our partner exporters report that the great demand for bulk shipments is causing a backlog due to the lack of appropriate bulk loading stations, resulting in major delays in shipments in both ports of the Côte d'Ivoire.

Feb 11 - Brazil sugar sector to consolidate despite improved outlook 
Brazilian mills have been buoyed by rising sugar prices, low interest rates and strong demand for cane-derived ethanol but there is still scope for consolidation as some will continue to struggle, the annual Dubai sugar conference was told on Monday. Around a third of Brazil's mills are in a "vicious circle" with their credit restricted and needing to sell their ethanol as soon as it is produced, said Andy Duff, Rabobank's global sugar strategist.

Feb 11 - India sugar production for 2019/20 estimate at 26 mln tonnes, big revision unlikely 
Indian sugar production estimates for the 2019/20 season are unlikely to be revised upwards by much from 26 million tonnes, when the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) meets to review figures towards February-end, the trade body said on Tuesday.  "We are due to meet on Feb. 25 when we will revisit the estimate and if there is significant change it will come out in the last week of February," Vivek Pittie, President of ISMA told an industry conference in Dubai. 

Feb 11 - Cuban fuel crisis hits sugar harvest 
A fuel crisis in Cuba sparked by U.S. sanctions on companies and ships shipping it Venezuelan oil, has temporarily closed at least two sugar mills in the eastern part of the country, according to local media. The closings follow a statement by Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel last month before leaders of the industry to prepare for just such an eventuality.

 

Feb 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

On Friday the aggressive buying program of the funds / specs continued and brought the market to new highs of GBP 2074 / US$ 2898 May 20, closing May 20 GBP +15 at GBP 2045. volume was almost record breaking in the last 3 trading days, as was the open interest in New York which was increased by 27k lots last week and now has a historic record of 365,293 lots. In London, May 20 last week traded in a strong range of GBP 138 and the Commitment of Traders as of 04.02 shows a further increase of 9,245 lots in the combined net long position which now stands at 194,196 lots. In London the position increased by a meagre 728 lots and in New York by a proud 8,517 lots. New York is still the driver of the current rally, these figures do not include the increase of the last 3 days.

Feb 10 - ICE sugar speculators cut bullish bets in latest week - CFTC
Sugar speculators on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cut their net long position in the week ended Feb. 4, according to a weekly report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.  Sugar speculators cut their net long position by 7,955 contracts to 77,637 in the week, bucking dealers' expectations.

Feb 10 - COFCO executive does not see recovery in Thailand sugar crop soon
Chinese commodities trader COFCO said on Monday it did not predict a recovery to Thailand's sugar crop any time soon. COFCO's Managing Director Softs Marcelo de Andrade made his comments during a panel discussion at an industry conference in Dubai. 

Feb 10 - Dubai's Al Khaleej Sugar says operating full capacity after "bad" year 
Dubai's Al Khaleej Sugar, which operates the world's largest port-based refinery of the sweetener, said on Sunday it had been operating at full capacity since late December after a "bad" 2019. "The changes came only after Christmas, prior to Christmas we were status quo and all what we are seeing today is a reflection of the Thai shortage of raws," Jamal al-Ghurair, managing director of Al Khaleej, told reporters at a briefing ahead of a three-day industry conference in Dubai.

 Feb 10 - Sao Paulo governor says less protection of sugar is 'win-win' 
The governor of Sao Paulo said on Monday at an industry conference that less protection of sugar would guarantee better access and lower prices for consumers. "Sugar is the most protected product in the market, the reduction of tax and non-tax barriers would guarantee better access," Joao Doria said in his opening remarks at a three-day industry meet in Dubai. 

Feb 10 - Smuggling pushes Ivory Coast cashew output down 17% in 2019 
Production of cashew in Ivory Coast, one of the world's top producers, fell 17% to 634,641 tonnes in 2019 after as much as 200,000 tonnes was smuggled out of the country, the head of the state cotton and cashew council said on Friday. Last year, the government lowered the guaranteed minimum price paid to farmers for their cashews to 375 CFA francs ($0.63) per kg from 500, while the farmgate price in neighbouring Ghana remained higher.

Feb 07 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 3-7 February 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed a negative outlook as no origins were reported with an increase. In local market Malabar black pepper continued its third week being traded negatively as it recorded an average of USD 4,337 per Mt. Thus, recording a 2% deficit as compared with the previous week. Indonesia black pepper was reported with a 2 % deficit as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 1,752 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 3,138 per Mt. Malaysian black and white pepper were reported with a decrease by 1% respectively averaging at USD 1,849 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,273 per Mt for white pepper. Having been inactive for the past two weeks due to Tet holiday, Viet Nam which is currently in the beginning of the harvest season, traded its black and white pepper at an average of USD 1,635 per Mt and USD 2,411 per Mt respectively. Having experienced a continuous dropped in the past seven weeks; Sri Lanka black pepper this week was reported to be traded steady with an average of USD 2,946 per Mt.
- International market was reported with a tendency of being negative. India was reported trading its Malabar black pepper internationally with the same 2% deficit as in the local market at an average of USD 4,617 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with a deficit by 2% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 2,172 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 3,736 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported to be traded with an average of USD 2,052 per Mt, USD 2,138 per Mt and USD 3,172 per Mt respectively.
- China pepper market this week was reported inactive as no offers nor business occurred both locally and internationally.

Feb 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

While the market tested the previous day's highs for much of yesterday (GBP 2004 May 20), the breakout came an hour before the end. At GBP 2035, the market reached levels we have not seen since November 2016. Closing price May 20 GBP +32 at GBP 2030. The lower open interest in March vs. May further fuelled yesterday's rally, and the funds now seem to be rolling their longs from March into May.
The next target in the market is now GBP 2100 / US$ 3000. The question for the weekend, however, remains: Even if all signals for a further rise are there, how long do I (I = speculator) want to be at the current levels in order to liquidate to GBP 2100 / US$ 3000 if possible (!)? Risk vs. success factors seem to turn around and the word correction rumbles in the market. It is possible, with the rather low price cover of the industry, the market goes first where it "hurts"...

Feb 07 - Tereos sees improved results last on better sugar, ethanol outlook
French sugar group Tereos said on Thursday a rebound in sugar prices and strong ethanol demand should help it boost its performance until the year-end after posting improved third-quarter results, although its debt level continued to rise. The world's third-largest sugar maker, had suffered from a fall in world sugar prices amid a surge in supplies, partly driven by more output from the European Union after it scrapped export and output limits in 2017.

 Feb 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday can be described relatively simply. The market rose just below the GBP 2000 level until midday, then a slight correction followed by new speculative buying in New York, and it was this that pushed the May 20 to a high of GBP 2004. There, some hedging pressure set in and May ended an eventful session, with reasonable volumes, at GBP +38 from GBP 1998, with an astonishing GBP 53 range. the March / May spread narrowing to GBP -27...What remains is the well-known game of new longs and hedging pressure coupled with individual profit taking! The industry continues to keep a low profile, will it make the final tipping point or is everyone waiting for the liquidation of the big "longs"?

Feb 06 - Brazil mills fix sugar price for 62% of exports in 2020/2021 cycle
Brazilian mills have fixed prices for 12.047 million tonnes of sugar through Jan. 31 in the 2020/2021 season, compared with 10.208 million tonnes in same period last season, Archer Consulting said on Wednesday. Archer said Brazilian mills have fixed sugar prices for about 62% of estimated exports of 19.5 million tonnes between April 2020 and March 2021. That is well above a five-year average for the period, which is 39.8%, Archer said.
 
 

Feb 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It seems that the market is looking for a floor. The May 20 traded in a GBP 32 range and ended the day unchanged at GBP 1960, and similarly almost the entire board, where all the dates barely moved...except for the March 20, which ended the day at GBP -7 at GBP 1928. The March / May spread traded yesterday (once again) to a new low of GBP -37, New York ended the day firmer at $ +25 at $ 2781 / May 20, and the Arbirtrage LDN / NY slides further and further into an even deeper discount, GBP -169 in the second month. From the origin little new this week.

Feb 05 - Green Pool sees smaller global sugar deficit in 2020/21 
A global sugar deficit is anticipated in the 2020/21 season although higher production will curb its size, analyst Green Pool said on Tuesday, issuing its first forecast for the period. The Australia-based analyst also increased its estimate for the size of the global sugar deficit in the current 2019/20 season on a crop year basis.

 Feb 05 - Australia's wine exports could take a hit from coronavirus: industry body 
Australia's wine export growth slowed last year and could take another hit in 2020 from the coronavirus outbreak if China, its biggest market, orders fewer crates, a report by an industry body said on Wednesday. The virus, which originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has severely impacted food and beverage businesses in mainland China with many global companies including McDonald's and Starbucks Corp temporarily shutting stores in the country as a precaution.

Feb 05 - French agency warns of virus threatening tomatoes, peppers
A particularly devastating virus is threatening tomatoes, peppers and chilli plants in France after affecting six countries in Europe as well as Turkey, the United States and China, France's food safety agency Anses said on Tuesday. The Tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV) is harmless to humans but it can destroy a whole areas of production, be it in greenhouses, vegetable gardens or organic fields, it said. 

Feb 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Right at the beginning the new Commitment of Traders figures put pressure on the market. The May 20 lost over GBP 30 in the first few minutes and traded down to a low of GBP 1936. 3 times the market tested last week's lows at GBP 1930 without breaking them. New system-based buying in the afternoon then led to a closing price of GBP -10 at GBP 1960. The March / May spread traded yesterday to a discount of GBP -24. The change in the near structure of the market gives many people hope of a correction, if it were not for the annual spreads...May 20 / May 21 continues to trade at a premium of GBP +200 and at least does not send an excessive bearish signal in the long term.

Feb 04 - Honduran coffee exports boosted by scheduled January sales 
Honduran coffee exports rose 12.5% in January from the same month a year earlier, the Honduran Coffee Institute said on Monday, lifted by scheduled sales contracts with overseas buyers. Coffee farmers in Honduras, Mexico and other Central American countries are still reeling from an outbreak of the tree-killing fungus roya that struck the region five years ago.

Feb 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Interesting scenario in the week from 21.1. to 28.1.20. The "Commitment of Traders Report" shows an increase of the net long position by 9,371 lots to a total of 184,951 lots during the week and is thus only about 14,500 lots below the record figure of 26.11.19. Prices in London fell by GBP 74 during the week, in New York it was US$ 106! The background to this is probably increased sales from the origin and the associated hedge sales. Closing price on 31.1.20 - London GBP 1970 = minus GBP 30 (May20).

Feb 03 - Further raw sugar price gains forecast as supplies tighten 
Raw sugar futures are expected to rise a further 3% by the end of the year, boosted by a tightening in supplies, a Reuters poll of 12 traders and analysts showed on Friday. Prices were seen ending 2020 at 15 cents per lb, up 3% from Thursday's close and 12% above levels at the end of 2019, according to the median forecast.

 Feb 03 - ICE sugar speculators raise net long position - CFTC 
Hedge funds and other money managers raised their bullish bets on sugar on the Intercontinental Exchange in the week to Jan. 28, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said in a weekly report.  Meanwhile, cocoa and cotton speculators increased their net long position, and coffee speculators cut their net longs, according to the report. 
 

Jan 31 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, week 27-31 Jan 2020 (IPC)
- Markets in China and in Viet Nam were still reported to be inactive due to Chinese New Year or Tet Holiday celebration. Markets in other origins at the end of January were reported relatively stable with India and Sri Lanka origins recorded a deficit. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,429 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged with an average of USD 1,796 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,152 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysian black and white pepper were also reported stable at an average of USD 1,866 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,303 per Mt for white pepper. By the end of January, Sri Lanka continued to be traded negatively as it kept dropping and recorded an 18% deficit as compared to the average in the first week of January which was reported at USD 3,607 per Mt. This week, Sri Lanka black pepper was reported to record a 4% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded below USD 3,000 per Mt at an average of USD 2,947 per Mt.
- International market was also reported rather stable. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,709 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported steady at an average of USD 2,224 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,753 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged.

Jan 31 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Now yesterday, the cocoa market broke out of its comfort zone and broke through the previous weekly bandwidth. May 20 already climbed steadily in the morning by GBP 55 to the highs of GBP 2016, but it was only the opening in New York and a firm British pound that put the market under pressure, with little success. Closing price GBP +39 at GBP 2000, the next resistance should start at last week's highs of GBP 2030. Thoughts for the weekend: If one looks at the outbreaks of the last 2-3 weeks and we only heard slight hedging pressure from the origin, are these sold much better than many market participants think and/or are the pre-sales figures less "bloated" than expected?

Jan 31 - India's sugar production could fall nearly 18% in 2019/20 - trade body
India's sugar production could fall nearly 18% in 2019/20 as a drought followed by floods is expected to curtail output in the country's second-biggest producing state, a trade body said on Friday. The lower output could help India reduce stockpiles swelled by two years of record production and lower-than-expected exports. India is the world's largest producer and consumer of sugar.

 
Jan 31 - Cocoa seen weakening by end-2020, but still set for annual gain - poll
London cocoa futures will fall 6% by the end of the year, weakened by the prospect of rising production in Ivory Coast and Ghana, a Reuters poll of nine traders and analysts showed. However, prices should still post an annual gain following a sharp rise this month, it indicated. London prices were seen ending 2020 at 1,850 pounds a tonne, down 6% from Wednesday's close, according to the median forecast of survey participants, but still 4% higher than the market close at the end of last year.

 
Jan 31 - Brazil mills seen shifting some cane from ethanol to sugar production – FCStone
Mills in Brazil's center-south region are expected to allocate more cane to sugar production in the new season that starts in April than they did in the previous crop, due to improved raw sugar prices in New York, INTL FCStone said on Thursday. The broker and consultancy firm said in a projection for the new crop that mills would likely earmark 37.8% of cane to sugar production in 2020-21 from an all-time low of 34.1% allocated in the previous crop. With that, center-south sugar production should grow 10.7% in 2020-21 to 29.4 million tonnes.

 
Jan 31 - South Africa's Tongaat posts smaller interim loss
Scandal-hit South African sugar producer Tongaat Hulett Ltd reported a smaller half-year interim loss on Friday, with improved performance in Zimbabwe and Mozambique offsetting subdued sales in its home market. Tongaat said in November a PwC probe found that certain senior executives overstated profits and certain assets by using "undesirable accounting practices", prompting the agriculture and agri-processing company to restate its 2018 financials.

Jan 30 - Russian Sugar consumer prices down 33% in 2019 and will continue to fall - TASS
Consumer sugar prices in 2019 decreased by 33% and this trend will prevail through the year, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture said on Wednesday.
"Consumer sugar prices for the year decreased by 33% and amounted, according to January 13, to 31.12 rubles per kg. Producer prices since December began to win back their positions (+2.3% per week, up to 20.46 rubles per kg), but in the consumer market prices continue to decline (-0.3% per week)," analysts said.
According to the report, growth of world prices for producers is affected by an increase in world sugar prices. According to experts, sugar shortages are expected in the world for the first time in five years, rising prices in the world market have an impact on price stabilization in Russia.
Expert noted that 2019 can be described by a record harvest of sugar beet - the gross harvest at the end of the harvesting campaign amounted to 50.8 mln tonnes, which is 20.7% higher than the level of 2018.

Jan 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Despite a range of GBP 34 / May 20, it was a slow day in the cocoa market with low volumes. May 20 tested Monday's lows at GBP 1930 against GBP 1936 yesterday, a breakthrough failed and the market marched firmly upwards again after opening NY...to be exact GBP 32 within 30 minutes. Closing price May 20 GBP +10 at GBP 1961. Côte d'Ivoire exports for Oct - Dec 19 vs. Oct - Dec 18: cocoa beans + 7%, cocoa products -14%.

Jan 30 - Devastating Brazil rains likely spared most of Minas coffee fields
The devastating rains that triggered landslides and flooding in Brazil's Minas Gerais state over the past week and brought more than 50 deaths apparently did not cause much damage to coffee fields in the world's largest production region. According to analysts, researchers and coffee cooperatives, despite the high death toll and heavy damage to urban infrastructure, coffee fields in areas such as South of Minas and Zona da Mata were unlikely to be negatively impacted, and indeed, could benefit from the extra moisture.
 
 

Jan 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It was a similar scenario to the previous day, a weak opening was followed by light hedging purchases (this time at levels around GBP 1950 / May 20), which brought the market to its highest level of GBP 1981 without strong resistance. At these levels the origin of the market was subdued and May 20 ended the day with GBP -8 at GBP 1951. Consolidation, retraction from the last highs, attack on the ultimately seen prices of over GBP 2000 or will there be profit taking by the longs at some point? The market continues to leave us in the dark...On the fundamental side, news came that Soro, the presidential candidate from Côte d'Ivoire, has announced that he will soon return to his home country to pursue his candidacy, despite his arrest warrant.

Jan 29 - Soaring demand seen driving French ethanol sales to new record this year
Ethanol sales in France should continue to rise sharply this year after reaching a new record in 2019, mostly boosted by tax breaks and a wider availability in petrol stations, French ethanol producer group SNPAA said on Tuesday. A decline in diesel demand and the growing use of so-called "flex-fuel" kits that allow cars to run on high-ethanol fuel have also contributed to an increase in its use, SNPAA Secretary General Sylvain Demoures told a news conference.

Jan 29 - Coffee exporter Comexim sees record Brazilian crop this year
Brazilian farmers are on the way to produce a record coffee crop in 2020, surpassing the previous record reported in 2018, coffee exporter Comexim said in a projection released to clients late on Monday. Comexim estimates Brazil will produce 67.7 million 60-kg bags of coffee this year, compared with 56.8 million bags in 2019 and the previous record of 64.5 million bags produced in 2018 (a revised upward estimate).

 
Jan 29 - Sugar buyers nervous as Indian export surge fails to materialize
Global sugar buyers are growing increasingly nervous as a much touted surge of Indian sugar exports has failed to materialise, with some mills reluctant to sell even as global prices trade near 2-1/2-year highs. India's government, hoping to rid the country of its vast surplus stocks, last year approved a sugar export subsidy of 10,448 rupees ($145.58) a tonne for the 2019/20 season, looking to encourage some 6 million tonnes of exports.

Jan 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Nervous...This is the best way to describe the cocoa market at present. With the background of good gains in the net long speculative position (even though this was well below expectations for some participants, see yesterday's report), May 20 opened weakly and traded down to lows of GBP 1930, where the first price hedging purchases began and an impressive rally of almost GBP 50 in extremely thin volumes followed. Finally, the markets ended the day virtually unchanged, LDN GBP +3 at GBP 1959 / NY US$ + 1 at 2759, leaving us still in the dark. Arrivals in the Ivory Coast as at 26.01 were 1.356 mt vs. 1.350 mt (+0.4%). The ICCO yesterday published the estimated global stocks for the 2018/19 crop, which amount to approx. 1.538 mt

Jan 28 - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers concerned about hot, dry weather
Farmers in Ivory Coast's cocoa regions said on Monday more rain was needed to boost the April-to-September mid-crop following hot, dry weather last week and only patchy rainfall before that. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is in its dry season, which runs from November to March, when rain tends to be scarce or light.

 
Jan 28 - Bat spit coffee is a hit with Madagascar consumers
In the rich volcanic soils of central Madagascar’s Itasy province grows a rare and fragrant coffee coveted by bats and humans alike. The twist: humans want it even more after the bats have nibbled on it. Bat spit gives the beans a uniquely smooth flavour, say consumers, sending demand for an already expensive speciality bourbon pointu coffee soaring to nearly $110 per pound (220 euros/kg).

Jan 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Continued good hedge pressure from the origin prevented a slight countermovement of the market on Friday. May 20 traded to a low of GBP 1953, close to the next technical support of GBP 1950, and ended the day at GBP -9 at GBP 1956, while the March / May spread remained weak with a discount of GBP -11. After the rapid rise in open interest over the past 1.5 weeks, all eyes were naturally on the next Commitment of Traders Report. As of 21.01 the net long position now stands at 175,580 lots, an increase of 23,573 within a week. Within the Managed Money category the increase was even more than 30k lots. Change in reporting period +GBP 90 / +US$ 165. 496,000mt of purchases from Ghana as of end of December vs. 491,000mt from the previous year.

Jan 27 - ICE sugar speculators raise net long position in latest week - CFTC
Speculators in Intercontinental Exchange sugar upped their net long position in the week to Jan. 21, according to data released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Cotton speculators trimmed their net long position in the week. Cocoa speculators raised their net long position, while coffee speculators reduced their net long position, the data showed.

Jan 27 - Louis Dreyfus plans fish farming, bio-energy in Chinese venture
Agricultural commodity merchant Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) said on Friday it will develop aquaculture and plant-based energy production as part of an industrial joint venture in China. The partnership with Donlink Group to create a food industry park near the southern port of Nansha marks a further diversification by LDC in China after agreements last year with retail chain Luckin Coffee covering coffee roasting and juice distribution.

 Jan 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The pause for breath that began the day before yesterday seems to be manifesting somewhat, with the market losing a further -1.5% of ground to the south. After an already weaker opening, and the (despite a recovering US$) still strong pound in the back, new sales already put pressure on the market in the first 10 minutes. Even a slight headwind from NY did not bring any significant support. The May 20 date closed at GBP 1965 (GBP-29). London is now close to the 10-day moving average. Open interest in the Mar20 term remains high as the Last Trading Day approaches. Mar/May 20 remained flat, but the structure continued to flatten overall: the May20/May21 spread was close to 205, coming from GBP 240 the day before yesterday. Ghana reports purchases as of 3 January 2020 of 569k mt compared with 525k mt last year - not surprisingly from an unnamed source.

Jan 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

At -1.5%, it was the most significant decline in the New Year to date. First signs of a correction? Technically not necessarily. If one does believe unnamed sources, origin sales should slow significantly, as the current crop in Côte d'Ivoire is almost complete and the coming crop is expected to be 900-950kmt compared to 720kmt in the beginning of January. So it would have been active three weeks behind us (??...) Though this would support the further inverse structure - even if slightly merging - the figure seems to be more on the "ambitious side". And, not surprisingly, it would be good news rather from the origin point of view. But if the figure is correct, then hedge sales should also be restrained in the light of cover from the origins. Perhaps the continued strength of the British pound will help to put pressure on the market. Today will bring new insights.

Jan 23 - Malaysia to buy more Indian sugar to resolve palm oil spat – sources
Malaysia's top sugar refiner said it will increase purchases of the commodity from India, which according to two sources is part of efforts to placate New Delhi amid an ongoing spat over palm oil imports. MSM Malaysia Holdings Berhad will buy 130,000 tonnes of raw sugar from India worth 200 million ringgit ($49.20 million) in the first quarter, the company told Reuters.

Jan 22 - Damage to Thai Sugar Crop Lifts Prices (WSJ)

Sugar prices are rising as damage to the crop in Thailand stokes competition among traders to secure the sweetener. Refined-sugar futures are 0.8% higher at $406.40 a metric ton in London, and raw-sugar futures are up 1.2% at 15 U.S. cents a pound in New York. Over the season as a whole, rainfall has been close to average in Thailand, the world's fourth-largest sugar producer. But most of the precipitation took place from August to mid-September, meaning water failed to get to the roots, causing plants to suffer during the dry months, Robin Shaw of Marex Spectron says. Serious damage has already been done to the current crop, and Shaw says it's vital that lots of rain falls at the end of the dry season in March.

Jan 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Despite a firmer pound sterling and although hedge sales against new origin deposits initially weakened prices, both markets recovered significantly during the day and closed together at long unseen highs, the May20 in London at GBP 2025 (GBP +25), NY was up $19 ($2836 May20). The Mar/May20 spread moved between GBP +7 and -2, while the Sep/Dec20 spread widened further (GBP +145). A bit worried on sees the growing open interest in the Mar20, around 3700 lots in the last two days alone, and this only 7 weeks before the Mar20 contract expires. News from the origin? Côte d'Ivoire asks the World Bank for help in the fight against cocoa farming in protected forests. According to its own estimates, about 40% (!) of the annual harvest come from these areas. From a fundamental point of view, this could have a bullish effect in the mid term...

Jan 22 - Ivory Coast asks World Bank for help eliminating illegal cocoa output
Ivory Coast has asked the World Bank for help in eliminating illegal cocoa output from protected forests and resettling people farming there, as it steps up efforts to both end deforestation and deter excess cocoa production. The world's top cocoa producer has introduced a fixed $400-a-tonne premium on its cocoa sales in a bid to combat farmer poverty, but wants to ensure that it does not lead to excess output, which could lower global cocoa prices.

Jan 22 - Tereos Commodities sugar unit director is leaving -sources
Alex Leite, executive director of French sugar group Tereos' sugar trading division, is leaving the company, two sources said on Tuesday. Tereos was not immediately available to comment.

Jan 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Without the participation of the New York market, the expected breathtaking in London occurred yesterday, or at least the "gasps" after last week's rally should have at least decreased. May traded in a GBP 16 spread and ended the day unchanged at GBP 2000, while the March / May 20 spread was again on the slightly weaker side with a discount of GBP -2. Open interest in London in March 20 increased by 3,600 lots on Friday alone, 8 weeks before the last trading day. Open interest in both markets increased by more than 44,000 lots last week alone! The specs / funds are still not interested in fundamental data at all...We take a positive view, as we are currently "only" GBP 30 above last year's range.

Jan 21 - Patchy rains boost Ivory Coast's cocoa mid-crop – farmers
Light showers in some of Ivory Coast's cocoa regions last week are likely to have boosted the April-to-September mid-crop, while heavier rain is needed elsewhere, farmers told Reuters on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is in its dry season, which runs from November to March, when rain tends to be scarce or light.
 
 

Jan 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The overall (just due to support from Asia (+8.7%) and Côte d'Ivoire (6+5%) only slightly positive grinding figures (total +1.5%) put the markets under pressure briefly on Friday, before the specs immediately compensated these fragile counter-reactions with new covers in both markets. Without any significant selling pressure, London reached new 3-year highs, the May 20 closed at GBP +52 exactly on the psychological resistance line of GBP 2000, and the Mar/May20 spread converged to just GBP 3 premium. The Com-mitments of Traders set a first sign with a net long position of 152,007 lots (+5,908), which is mainly due to the Managed Money buyers (90,195 /+13,022). However, these figures do not yet show the significant firming of over GBP 100 in the 2nd month experienced in the second half of the week. New York remains closed today due to Martin Luther King Day.

Jan 20 - Speculators swing to long position in sugar contracts - CFTC
Speculators swung to a long position in sugar futures and options, according to government data released on Friday, while also building on existing long bets in cotton and cocoa. Sugar speculators switched to a net long position of 35,987 contracts in the week to Jan. 14, adding 57,210 long contracts, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

 Jan 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

While the forward months saw some gains, May20 and Mar20 took a break, the Mar20 closed at GBP 1948 (GBP -8), but GBP30 below the daily highs. However, the 5 day long fix of over GBP 160 was broken, at least in the front sessions, and further back the prices continued to rise. London is clearly overbought, but is the correction coming? The structure has weakened slightly. Meanwhile, by the way, the funds are in a buying mood, with almost 11,000 lots in NY on Wednesday and almost 2.5k in London. The CCC in Côte d'Ivoire has continued to sell at these firm levels with pre-sales for 2020/21. Yesterday it was already reported to have reached over 700k mt. Nigeria is worried about the mid crop.  The German grinding figures in the 4th quarter of 2019 were slightly lower (-0.9%). We wish you a nice weekend.

Jan 17 - Brazil's 2020 coffee crop just shy of record as production area grows
Brazil's 2020 coffee crop is seen reaching a near-record volume as the area under production in the world's largest exporter grows for the first time since 2012, government agency Conab said in a study released on Thursday. In its first estimate for the new crop, Conab said Brazilian farmers would produce between 57.15 million 60-kg bags and 62 million bags, with the midpoint at 59.6 million bags.
 

Jan 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Similar to the previous day, it was another fixed opening in London. May 20 was a firm GBP 24 within the first few minutes and then consolidated at these levels for most of the time due to good hedging pressure from the origin. In the late afternoon, fresh longs in New York led to further highs. May 20 is powerfully feeding through the highs from mid November 19 (GBP 1970) and was close to breaking this important resistance with a high of GBP 1964. Closing price GBP +20 at GBP 1956. Due to the firm performance from NY to London closing, an opening of GBP +22 is expected. According to unofficial / unnamed sources, pre-sales for 20/21 (including LID) are over 700k mt in the CDI and over 280k mt in Ghana. If we compare this favourably with the figures from Jan 19 for the 19/20 crop, this is significantly higher than last year, where the estimated figures were 520 and 216k mt respectively.

 Jan 16 - Brazil looks to expand share in global coffee trade after 2019 record
Brazilian exporters believe they will increase their already large share in the global coffee trade in 2020, possibly exporting more than the record 2019 volume, due to an expected fall in output coming from other producing countries. Brazilian exports of green coffee reached 36.6 million 60-kg bags in 2019, a 14.8% increase from the previous year to an all-time peak, exporters association Cecafé said in a report on Wednesday.

Jan 15 - Sugar Prices Keep Rising, Encouraging Indian Shipments (WSJ DJ)

- Sugar prices continue to rise, driven higher by a shortfall in Asia and strong ethanol demand in Brazil. Raw-sugar futures are up 0.4% in New York at 14 cents a pound. Refined-sugar futures are 0.2% higher at $390.40 a metric ton in London. The strength of the commodity may surprise some given the scale of Indian stocks, although "it is important to remember that the bulk of this sugar is not deliverable against the No.5 white sugar contract" in London, Warren Patterson of ING says. The jump in prices is encouraging suppliers in India to export sugar, and if sustained "would help eat into the sizeable stocks the country currently holds, while also providing somewhat of a cap to world market prices," Patterson says.

Jan 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

And again London was on the rise, the fourth day in a row. Strong purchases of the Mar/May20 spread, which in the meantime widened to GBP +38 and closed at GBP 29, as well as strong grinding figures from Malaysia (+23.3% Q4) and finally a further expansion of the funds' long positions boosted the prices, in the first minute alone over GBP 20. In Côte d'Ivoire, too, local grinding continues to grow (+6.5% Q4), which is from now on further supported by tax advantages. May 20 closed at GBP 1935 (+ GBP 52). The inverse structure persists stoically: front +GBP 65 (Mar20), forward (Sep21) unchanged. In the long-term retrospective, the 2nd month still has some GBP 35 upside potential, up to around GBP 1970, which we saw in November 2019.

Jan 15 - Sugar's surge to two-year high has Brazilian mills considering output change
Brazilian sugar mills are considering increasing their raw sweetener output at the expense of ethanol for automobile fuels after sugar futures surged to a two-year high this week, analysts said this week. Raw sugar futures for March delivery in New York have climbed 9.1% since Jan. 2 after news of output declines in producers such as Thailand raised supply concerns amid an expected global deficit for the 2019/20 crop year that started in October.

Jan 15 - Suedzucker posts higher Q3 profit despite sugar losses
Suedzucker, Europe's largest sugar refiner, on Tuesday confirmed an improvement in quarterly earnings as stronger bioethanol demand helped offset continued losses from its sugar business. The company confirmed an operating profit of 39 million euros ($43.43 million) in the third quarter to November 30 against an operating loss of 23 million euros a year earlier.
 
 

Jan 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The weak British pound and negligible volume did not lead to a recovery yesterday. With a cable of 1.297, May 20 headed for the next resistance at GBP 1900. This barrier still seems to be holding and May recorded a high of GBP 1889, only hedging pressure from the origin, mainly against the front positions, held out for another breakout to the top. May 20 ended the day with GBP +13 at GBP 1883. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire at 1.259 mt vs. 1.235 mt (+1.9%) on 12.01.20. Brazil recorded weaker-than-expected Q4 grindings, down 5.11%. The ECA figures will be released on Friday and are expected to be unchanged to slightly negative.

Jan 14 - Ivory Coast cocoa belt sees dry week as harvest slows down
Ivory Coast's cocoa growing regions stayed hot and dry over the past week as the main crop harvest started to slow down, farmers told Reuters on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is in its dry season, which runs from November to March, when rain tends to be scarce or light.

 Jan 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The previous day's strong technical performance continued on Friday, taking May 20 to a new 5-week high of GBP 1880. May 20 ended the day in the upper third of the range at GBP +35 at GBP 1869, and both markets are now slowly moving into overbought territory, this coupled with a much weaker structure (March / May 20 spread traded down to GBP +12) and not much increasing open interest seems to be indicators that the market is moving too fast and violently. Commitment of Traders as of 07.01.20 show only a marginal reduction of the net long position of -440 lots. Combined, both markets have a net long position of 146,099.

Jan 13 - ICE sugar speculators raise net short position in week - CFTC
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) sugar speculators increased their net short position in the latest week, according to a U.S. government report released on Friday. The group increased its net short position by 10,665 contracts to 21,223 in the week to Jan. 7, according to the report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 

 
 
Jan 13 -
ICE delays London cocoa listing as it finalises rule changes

ICE Futures Europe said on Friday it had delayed the listing of the December 2021 London cocoa contract until March 17 as it finalises changes to grading and warehousing rules. The exchange sought feedback on its plans by Dec. 27 and had initially sought to list the contract on Jan. 17. "The exchange has received feedback on the proposals which is being incorporated into the changes," the exchange said in a circular on Friday.
 
 

Jan 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The 200-day moving average at GBP 1809, which has been mentioned frequently in recent days, was finally broken sustainably yesterday. While the market was still testing these levels in the morning due to currency factors, the specs came into the market just in time for the opening NY at 2 pm. The break through the resistance led to increased buy orders for fresh speculative longs and May 20 traded to a high of GBP 1839. Closing May 20 GBP +41 at GBP 1834. Next technical resistance is expected at GBP 1880 and GBP 1900. In addition, there were reports from Cameroon. Exports in December were up about 20% on the previous year.

Jan 10 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, week 06-10 January 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed a negative outlook. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,581 per Mt. In local currency, Malabar black pepper was traded at an average of RS 329 per Kg. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported stable at an average of USD 1,763 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,094 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysian black and white pepper were also reported steady with an average of USD 1,860 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,293 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 1,722 per Mt. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported steady at an average of USD 2,625 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper continued to be traded with a deficit and this week by 4% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,458 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 4,313 per Mt.
- International market also showed a negative outlook. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,859 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported steady with an average of USD 2,183 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,684 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l and 550 g/l were reported with a 1% deficit respectively as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 2,329 per Mt and USD 2,394 per Mt respectively. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 3,479 per Mt. In international market China was reported with the same 1 % deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 4,413 per Mt.

Jan 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the great volatility of the past few days, the market seems to have gained some stability yesterday. May 20 traded within a narrow range of GBP 16 and ended the day at GBP -7 at GBP 1793, with volumes again lean. The oft-mentioned 200 day moving average at GBP 1809 was tested again yesterday and did not break through, the longer we do not break through this resistance the more it gains in importance. Unofficial sources from the Ivory Coast are reporting a reduction in export tax for locally produced semi-finished goods. However, this should only affect companies / manufacturers who sign an "agreement" to this effect...and this will, one way or another, certainly have something to do with the Living Income Differential.

Jan 09 - ICO widens forecast for 2019/20 global coffee deficit
The International Coffee Organization (ICO), in a monthly update, widened its forecast for a global coffee deficit in the 2019/20 season to 626,000 60-kg bags from 502,000. Global production was seen falling 0.9% to 168.71 million bags and consumption climbing by 0.7% to 169.34 million, the ICO said in the update.
 

Jan 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The firmer pound sterling in the light of the Middle East conflict gave reason to expect a firmer opening, but little was happening at first. It was only after NY joined the market prices firmed by almost GBP +30 in the first minute. The May20 closed at GBP 1800 (+GBP 34), wiping out yesterday's losses. The Mar20/May20 spread widened again, to GBP 27 premium. Meanwhile, we are scratching the 200-day moving average, which has also recently marked a technical resistance level. Whether the steady liquidation of the net long position will thus come to an end for the time being remains questionable. If a firmer close yesterday causes further technical buying and the barrier of the 200-day moving average is passed, we see clear upward air.

Jan 08 - U.S. wine industry fears 'Armageddon of costs' from tariffs on French imports
U.S. consumers, companies and workers will pay the biggest price for proposed 100% tariffs on French Champagne and other sparkling wines, cheese, porcelain, enamel cookware and handbags, witnesses told the U.S. government on Tuesday. The U.S. Trade Representative's office last month proposed punitive duties on $2.4 billion in imports from France of sparkling wines and other goods after concluding that a new French digital services tax would harm U.S. companies.

Jan 08 - Sugar group Tereos to repay second half of 2020 bond in advance
French sugar group Tereos will repay the second half of its 500 million euro ($556.8 million) March 2020 bond on Jan. 21. The French group had repaid the first half a year in advance through a loan financed by BNP Paribas, Natixis and Rabobank.

Jan 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The further weak performance of the March / May spread, which converged from GBP +49 to GBP +15 within a few days, led to the corresponding countermovement yesterday. This, coupled with hedging pressure from the origin, caused the market to drop to a low of GBP 1763, closing May at GBP -25 at GBP 1771. Despite all the volatility and wide spreads, the market feels undecided. Next major support or buying interest should start on the lows just before Christmas at GBP 1728. We see technical resistance in the 200 day and 100 day moving averages at GBP 1794 and 1809 respectively. Commitment of traders as of 31.12.19 does not help the market to make decisions either, the net long position increased by 479 lots (LDN +618 / NY -139). Combined, both exchanges now stand at 146,539 lots net long.

Jan 07 - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers hopeful as Harmattan winds start slow
Cocoa farmers in Ivory Coast remain cautiously optimistic as the start of the seasonal dry Harmattan winds had not affected crops so far, they told Reuters on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is in its dry season, which runs from November to March when rain tends to be scarce or light. Rains last week in most of its cocoa belt were patchy, farmers said.

Jan 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

For long stretches it was a technically driven rise in prices. A generally firm commodity sector, driven by political tensions in the Middle East, helped the cocoa market break through the GBP 1800 level, good resistance was found in May 20 at the 50 day moving average at GBP 1826, peaked in May at GBP 1823. In the afternoon, after the opening of New York, good hedge pressure from the origin led to a correction and May 20 ended the day at GBP +1 almost unchanged at GBP 1796. Fundamentally, limited to cocoa, we can currently find no significant reason to explain the final rise above GBP 70, it remains to be seen how the industry will react after returning from the holidays this week. Commitment of Traders will be released today.

Jan 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It was a rough start to the new year in both markets. London sought and found good resistance at GBP 1794 (200 day moving average) and psychological resistance at GBP 1800. May 19 saw a high of GBP 1802 and ended the day, above the 200 day moving average, at GBP +15 at GBP 1795. New York broke through the last dominant moving average (50 days) at $ 2554, ending the day almost unchanged at $ 2539 ($-2) despite all this. If yesterday's move was mainly currency-related, it did send a signal to the gradual return of "holidaymakers" and we are back to mid-December levels. Purchases in Ghana as at 19.12 are at 456,701mt comfortably above the previous year (410,319).

Jan 03 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Report, week 30 Dec.- 03 Jan 2020 (IPC)
- Market at the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 showed mixed response with only Indonesia and Malaysia origins recorded an increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,627 per Mt. In local currency, Malabar black pepper was traded at an average of RS 330 per Kg. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 1,761 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,091 per Mt. The increase of Indonesia white pepper could be contributed to the increase of the price in local currency which averaging at IDR 43,000 per Kg. Malaysian black and white pepper recorded an increase of 1% respectively at an average of USD 1,860 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,292 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 1,738 per Mt. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported steady at an average of USD 2,626 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper continued to be traded with a deficit and this week by 3% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,607 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,338 per Mt.
- International market showed a rather stable outlook this week with only Indonesia origin recorded an increase. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,907 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported steady with an average of USD 2,181 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 3,680 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. In international market China was reported steady with an average of USD 4,438 per Mt.

Jan 03 - Costa Rica coffee exports dip nearly 10% in December
Costa Rican coffee exports fell 9.6% in December, the country's national coffee institute ICAFE reported on Thursday. Exports in December reached 35,790 60-kg bags, down from 39,576 bags during the same month in the previous year.

Jan 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Coverages, against presumably fundamental short positions, ensured a firmer year-end with low volumes. May 20 peaked at GBP 1785 and ended the day with GBP +17 at GBP 1780. Looking at last year's performance, cocoa was one of the quieter softs with an average gain of 5%, coffee performed much more impressively in 2019 with +27%. It is interesting to note that the closing price of the May 19 date was GBP 1785 on 31.12.18, so we ended last year where we "started". We would like to submit the Commitment of Traders figures as of 24.12. Here we saw a significant reduction in the number of longs of 17,357 lots (15,710 of which in NY alone). Combined, both markets now stand at a net long position of 146,060 lots.