Softs News

Oct 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The first official trading day of the new 2022/23 crop again brought strong hedging pressure into the market. March 23 in London consequently corrected by GBP 37 at the peak to yesterday's low of GBP 1868. The 10-day moving average at GBP 1874 then provided good support, coupled with scattered price hedging by the industry. March close GBP 23 -28 at GBP 1877, back to last month's close.

- Commitment of Traders as of 27.09 shows an increase in the gross long position (managed money) in London of 7207 lots, while in NY the gross short position increased by 7853 lots. Both markets now hold a gross long position of 102,586 lots (highest since October last year) vs. a new record short position of 114,587 lots. If it still looks like a stalemate at the moment, the new figures (as of today's reporting deadline) may bring new insights.

Oct 03  - Sharp increase in the Spanish pistachio crop expected (IHSmarkit)

- Spain’s 2022-23 pistachio production projected at 18,000 tonnes, 8% more y/y

- The EU pistachio production is projected to reach a record of 23,940 tonnes in the 2022-23 season, up from 16,489 tonnes in the previous season, as Spanish orchards are coming into fruition with another record of 18,000 tonnes, 8% more y/y. Spanish planted area growth is maintaining a strong pace, being estimated at 61,231 hectares in 2021, 24% more y/y and three-fold more than in 2017. Around 16,725 hectares were harvested in 2021, leading the European supply. Meanwhile, the domestic consumption is expected to fall by 2% y/y to 120,940 tonnes due to higher prices as a consequence of higher prices in an inflation scenario.
- Imports are forecast to fall by 2,000 tonnes y/y to around 100,000 tonnes in the 2022-23 season.
- The main 2021-22 suppliers were the US and Iran, accounting for 69% and 25%, respectively.

Oct 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The end of the month, quarter and cocoa year, also gave us another volatile trading day. March 22 LDN initially came under pressure, triggered by origin price hedges, and traded to lows of GBP 1885, only to encounter further good (currency) support. March 23 then traded to highs of GBP 1919, closing almost unchanged at GBP +4 at GBP 1905.

- The again weakening US$ added a little more to NY, reinforcing the mini uptrend currently there. Closing price March 23 US$ +26 at US$ 2340.

- The CCC increased the farmgate price from CFA 825 to CFA 900 for the main harvest now underway. Opening today March 23 GBP +2 / 1907 , EUR / GBP 0.874 GBP / US$ 1.121.

- We wish you a happy German Unification Day and above all a good and successful new cocoa year 2022/23.

Sep 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- It was a trading day dominated by currency constellations. A GBP 85 bn programme launched by the Bank of England to buy long-dated government bonds to cushion the collapse of sterling provided the expected support.

- Sterling strengthened by 2% against the USD, weakness in the US currency again led to significant support in NY (US$ +43 Mar 22).

- London's cocoa market went on the defensive in the afternoon and by the evening had lost the gains of just over 30 points it had made up to that point. Mar 23 closed at GBP 1901 (+3), one point above the much-touted GBP 1900 mark.

- In the fundamental corner, farmers in Ivory Coast are struggling with heavy rains causing fungal infestations of the new cocoa pods. Tomorrow Saturday marks the start of the 2022/23 main harvest, and in anticipation of an increase in the farmgate price by the CCC, many farmers have not yet harvested. However, there are now rumours that the farmgate price could remain unchanged.

Sep 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The upward trend in the cocoa market continued in early trading yesterday. Ldn Dec22 gained GBP 43 in the morning, taking the first position to a 2-year high. A move that took prices in Ldn Dec22 past the next significant options position at GBP 1950 with 10,000 lots of calls.

- A bounce that lost its momentum through the opening of New York trading as well as a slight firming of GBP for the market to close almost unchanged in Ldn. Close Ldn Mar23 at GBP 1898, GBP +5. A similar picture in NY with close Mar23 at USD 2241, USD -5.

- On Wednesday, the Ghana Cocoa Board also announced that after prolonged negotiations, they will sign a USD 1.3 billion Structured Trade Finance on Thursday with international banks to finance bean purchases for the 2022/23 season. The Ghanaian Parliament approved the required loan (about 9% of Ghana's tax revenue comes from cocoa exports) whilst the country tries to overcome an economic crisis and a balance of payments deficit of almost USD 2.5 billion.

Sep 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Once again, the cocoa market ignored its own laws on yesterday's trading day. Although the British pound had stabilised in the morning and New York closed US$ 30 weaker, this was of little interest to London.

- Instead, prices marched unwaveringly north, finding increasing support by further buying interest. With new highs at GBP 1896 at levels last traded exactly two years ago and a close of the day at GBP 1893 (GBP +21), 2nd month Mar 23 marked its claim to the psychological resistance of GBP 1900. After this, the way up would be clear for the time being. The front month Dec 22 is already trading well above this (close GBP 1924) and the British pound, whatever that may mean in the cocoa markets at the moment, is tending to weaken. The Dec22/Mar23 front spread diverged and is now trading GBP 31.

- Meanwhile, the origin reports arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire in the penultimate week of the crop of 10.6kMT. The total crop since 1 October 2022 is therefore around 4.1% below last year at 2.106mMT to date.

Sep 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

 - Yesterday was dominated by the collapsing British pound, which showed partial losses of 4.5 - 5% against the USD and the Euro. Reports of possible emergency measures by the Bank of England were able to temporarily slow the free fall. Confirmation of the measures failed to materialise, which caused Sterling to plummet again. The pound is currently trading at 0.893 to the EUR, with recent lows of 0.900.

- Consequently, the London market experienced significant support, which is likely to be due in large part to the currency situation, and was able to make significant gains, especially in the afternoon. The first month closed GBP 40 up after a day of lively participation (33k lots in total), Mar23 GBP +33. The structure strengthened overall. Mar23 closed at GBP 1872.

- The last days of the current crop are running before the new farmgate price in Côte d'Ivoire will be announced on 1 October. As always, rumours are circulating beforehand, and this year everyone is expecting an increase of 25 - 50 FCFA/kg (EUR 38 or 75/MT).

Sep 26 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Opening with a loss of GBP -30 (-1.6%) within the first 5 minutes of trading, only to correct back to unchanged levels just 15 minutes later at the pre-market open in New York, Friday's trading saw a very volatile start. A price range which for London would then also holdfor the rest of the trading day, with the 2nd term closing at GBP 1839 (GBP -4). For NY, however, the picture was quite different, as the weakness of the GBP took hold on NY prices.

- After Kwasi Kwarteng, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, presented his budget on Thursday with tax cuts to benefit the general household, measures that will cost the country £45 billion by 2026/27, GBP came under renewed pressure with GBP loosing over 2% against the US dollar during the day alone.

- Consequently, NY cocoa slumped to close down -3.4% at USD 2244 (-76) vs. 2nd position. In the latest Commitment of Trader Report, funds show more restraint than in recent reports. NY shows a slight reduction in MM Net Short positions from 397 lots to -39.170, while in Ldn shows a further build up in MM Net Longs from 3139 to 29.393.

Sep 26   - Brazil govt admits to problems with coffee crop views, plans revision
Brazil's government admitted that its estimates for coffee crops over recent years have problems and need improvements to better reflect the reality, since the numbers for production have been smaller than the sum of local consumption plus exports.

Sep 26   - Judge rules in favor of U.S. Sugar purchase of Imperial, rejects antitrust concerns

A U.S. judge on Friday ruled in favor of U.S. Sugar Corp's plans to buy rival Imperial Sugar Co, rejecting a Justice Department argument that the proposed deal would drive up the price of sugar for households as well as for food and soda makers.

Sep 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Once again, a trading day that was entirely influenced by the currencies. The Bank of England raised its key interest rate by 50bps to 2.25% and the Swiss central bank increased it again by 75bps to 0.5%.

- Our small cocoa market didn't really want to react. Dec 22 traded in a GBP 1860/ 1841 range, away from the final seen highs at GBP 1867 and ended the day weak at GBP -11 at GBP 1843. The Dec 22 / March 23 spread narrowed, for no apparent reason, from GBP +30 to GBP +16. Price fixing of the origin, as well as rolling of speculative positions were probably the triggers here. The volume was meagre at just under 20k lots and gives no indication of increased activity. We wish you a nice weekend.

Sep 22  - Asia Coffee-Vietnam market tepid ahead of new crop season, low supplies in Indonesia (Reuters)

- Coffee trading remained subdued in Vietnam this week due to a lack of beans, with traders awaiting the new crop season that starts next month, while supplies begun to dwindle in Indonesia at the end of harvest there. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans at 46,900-47,200 dong ($1.98-$1.99) per kilograms, down from last week's 47,000-48,200 dong range.
“Trade is muted now as everyone is waiting for new beans,” said an exporter based in Ho Chi Minh City.
“We are assessing the current situation ahead of the harvest amid stronger dollar, raising freight rates, higher production costs.”

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount range of $200-$250 per tonne to the November contract. Another trader said coffee growing area was bracing for more rains but rains at the time helped pick off weak cherries from the cherry before the harvest. November robusta futures on ICE settled down $10, or 0.4%, at $2,226 per tonne on Wednesday.

- In Indonesia’s Lampung province, discounts for Sumatran robusta beans were unchanged this week, local traders said. One trader offered $140 discount to the November contract, while another offered $50-$60 discount to the October and November contracts.
“Volume of beans has started to come down as harvest has ended, while local buyers are still trying to buy more beans,” one of the traders said.

Sep 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After opening the day on a positive note and trading at +£14 vs. the 2nd position pre noon, the markets turned during the afternoon trading session as traders became more cautious about the Fed's afternoon Interstrate decision. With a daily volume of 14k lots, it remained an unspectacular trading day for Cocoa in London. Closing March 23 GBP +1 at GBP 1854, NY USD -1 at USD 2345.

- The British Pound, which is heading for a new low against the dollar, did not provide any price support for London.

- For NY, on the other hand, this should help short traders gain an advantage and give some reassurance for their trading positions. Thursday's opening will be watched warily as market participants wait to see how the markets react to yesterday's 75 basis point Fed rate hike and how the currency markets further perform, especially after cable fell below 1.13 overnight.

Sep 21 - Guatemala records boost in H1 cardamom exports (IHSmarkit)

- Volumes up 38.4% but value 39.6% lower
- UAE is the leading destination

- Guatemala increased its cardamom exports in the first half of 2022 to 32,038 tonnes from 23,144 tonnes in the January-June period of 2021 – a rise of 38.4% y/y. The H1 2022 volume generated revenue of $284.25 million compared with $470.76 million in H1 2021, a decline of 39.6% and indicating that the country was offering its cardamom at lower unit prices y/y this year.

- The UAE edged ahead of Saudi Arabia to become the leading destination in H1 2022 at 6,905 tonnes versus 4,868 tonnes in the same period of 2021. Saudi Arabia’s H1 2022 purchases totalled 6,740 tonnes versus 5,756 tonnes earlier. Jordan was the third largest market by volume in the first six months of this year at 3,820 tonnes compared with just 961 tonnes a year ago – a massive 297.5% boost. The Middle East has traditionally been the biggest global region for Guatemala’s cardamom. Although the US had a relatively small market share in H1 2022 of only 1.6% its purchases surged 179.8% to 985 tonnes from 352 tonnes earlier.

- Based on its current rate of progress Guatemala should comfortably exceed its 2021 calendar year export total of 37,400 tonnes and might even top its impressive 2020 performance of 65,159 tonnes.

Sep 21 - Robust recovery in Indian guar gum prices (IHSmarkit)

- 19% m/m growth in spot prices 
- 19% growth in exports
- 16-23% increase in futures prices for deliveries from September 2022-March 2023

- India’s guar gum spot price averaged INR10,473 ($131.4) per quintal at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 20 September 2022, 19% more month-on-month and 11% more year-on-year, trends yoyoing without a clear trend despite concerns about a global recession.

- Indian guar gum exports rose by 19% y/y to 145,548 tonnes, valued at $298.2 million in January-July 2022, 91% more. The US, Germany and Russia accounted for 30%, 13% and 12% (volume), respectively.

The daily futures market price on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) was INR10,539/quintal for deliveries in September 2022 on 19 September 2022, 23% more m/m

Sep 21 - Encouraging signs for cashew nut market in Europe (IHSmarkit)

- European supermarkets start tendering for 2023
- Prices are at ‘very attractive’ levels
- Africa is proving to be a good source for cashew nut kernels

- European nut traders and brokers report an improvement in buying interest on cashew nut kernels in recent weeks.
- Dutch edible nuts broker Global Trading & Agency observed there is more interest in cashew nut kernels lately as prices are at very attractive levels and EU supermarket chains are starting their tenders for 2023. “This is promising for the cashew industry which has experienced some quiet months,” Global Trading added. However, the firm also noted that there remains no parity between raw cashew nut prices and current kernel offers. Because of this, processing capacity in Vietnam is decreasing as factories are temporarily closing their doors as they cannot make any money.

- Global Trading suggested that when demand picks up this might have an impact on later supplies such as in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. “When demand is picking up during winter times, Thanksgiving and Christmas this might impact supply and cause prices to go up,” it added.
“Current prices are very interesting and we would recommend to have a serious look at your positions until first half 2023,” Global Trading urged buyers.

- At the African Cashew Alliance conference in Nigeria (which was attended by members of the Global Trading team) it was reported that 11% of the EU cashew imports are coming from Africa now and this is increasing rapidly.

- Among the attractions are cheaper freight rates, the possibility of dividing risk by buying from two different parts in the world (to avoid the logistic issues of 2021), consistently good quality, traceability and sustainability and CO2 reduction. Hence, it makes sense to also purchase cashews from Africa and the EU industry is realising that Africa is a promising source for cashew nut kernels, Global Trading noted.

Sep 21 - Weak Chinese consumption hit Sudanese peanut sales (IHSmarkit)

- 51% fall in Chinese imports
- 2022-23 production projected at 18 million tonnes, 2% less y/y

- China’s imports of peanuts are forecast to fall by 51% year-on-year to 700,000 tonnes in the 2022-23 season (October-September) due to weak domestic consumption as a result of Covid-19 restrictions and high sea freight fares, according to the USDA in its latest market update.
- African origins such as Sudan and Senegal are particularly affected. Both origins exported 384,000 tonnes of shelled peanuts to China in October 2021-July 2022, 43% less y/y. China’s imports are expected to grow by 57% y/y to 1.1 million tonnes in the 2022-23 season due to consumption recovery, although still below 1.37 million tonnes purchases in the 2020-21 season. However, Sudan and Senegal will have to compete with Brazilian peanuts after China has published a phytosanitary protocol about it.

Production
- China’s 2022-23 production is expected to fall by 2% y/y to 18 million tonnes in the 2022-23 season as farmers have turned to other more profitable crops. On the other hand, consumption may rise by 200,000 tonnes to 18.6 million tonnes, still below 18.9 million tonnes recorded in the 2020-21 season.

Sep 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Back after the long weekend, the London market attempted a tentative breakout to the upside. The March 23 traded at its peak at GBP 1867, met good resistance there due to isolated price hedges from the origin. March 23 closed GBP -1 at GBP 1853. A look at the 2nd consecutive month showed that the next resistance should start at GBP 1884 ("double-top" from late August). The Dec 22 in London also moved upwards, but the important resistance at GBP 1900 (high yesterday GBP 1898) was not broken.

- New York continues sideways, at what point do the shorts there get nervous? With over 960,000mt of speculative short position, profit taking could be expected soon.

- The FED will (presumably) continue to adjust the interest rate upwards tonight. The market sees an increase of 0.75 - 100bps, much of the increase is likely already priced in.

- With the end of the current crop approaching, arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire are at 2.095mn mt vs. 2.184mn mt from last year (-4.1%).

Sep 20  - Raw sugar futures’ decline continues (IHSmarkit)
- Raw sugar futures in New York saw further losses as sugar production in Brazil is likely to be higher following the poor profitability of ethanol. At the same time, the good production prospects in India are regarded as neutral for now, as international prices are below local values.
- October raw sugar settled down 0.19 cent, or 1.1%, at 17.69 cents per lb. The contract will expire on September 30th. March was down the same at 17.37 cents and the rest of the board lost 0.09 to 0.25 cent in volume of 135,542 lots.
- Recession fears may weigh on prices in the months ahead, as energy demand may fall. This would also affect ethanol consumption, freeing up more cane for sugar production.
- Brazil’s Petrobras reduced diesel prices on Monday, keeping its policy to reduce fuel prices that have led Brazilian mills to produce more sugar and less ethanol.
- In the meantime, Broker StoneX expects the Centre/South of Brazil to crush 583.2 million tonnes of sugarcane in the 2023/24 season, up 4.6% on the volume expected for the current cycle.

Sep 20  - Turkish hazelnut market in a stalemate situation (IHSmarkit)
- Turkish hazelnut prices held stable last week as farmers proved reluctant to sell to the private market due to the substantial difference in price between the market's price for in-shells (TRY44 – $2.41 – per kg) and the Turkish Grain Board’s (TMO’s) price (TRY52/kg).
- Traders noted that selling to the TMO is not very easy for the farmers, since the TMO is very selective on quality, moisture and yields. The low market price and the selective TMO are giving the farmers a hard time.
- Moreover, buyers are unwilling to pull the trigger at current levels. On the selling side there seems to be a lot of resistance to move prices lower due to the higher purchase prices declared by TMO and Ferrero and on the buyers side, concerns about Q4 consumer demand and high prices are preventing them from taking coverage.
- Traders observed there is a high amount of cimiciato in the initial incoming stock. As a result, there is likely to be premium for high quality roasted hazelnuts in the 2022-2023 season. This is compounded by the fact that Ferrero and the TMO with their high prices have put very low tolerances on cimiciato contaminated material, which means that the rest of the market is likely to have to also pay premiums for the low cimiciato material.

Sep 20  - Indian turmeric spot prices clearly below INR7,000/quintal (IHSmarkit)
- The Indian spot fob unpolished turmeric price averaged INR6,888/quintal ($86.3/quintal) at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, South Central) on 19 September, 2% less month-on-month and 4% less year-on-year.
- Harvesting finished in May. The planted area has increased by 19% y/y to 306,000 hectares and the crop did that by 17% y/y to 1.33 million tonnes, according to the Spices Board of India (SBI).
- The country’s global sales reached 98,900 tonnes, 10% more y/y, worth $116.6 million, in January-July 2022, 13% more y/y in value. The main importers were Bangladesh, the UAE and Morocco, taking 16%, 12% and 8%, respectively, of the volume.

The updated daily futures market prices on NCDEX were:
- INR7,024/quintal for deliveries in September on 16 September, 4% less m/m
- INR7,256/quintal for deliveries in October on 16 September, 2% less m/m
- INR7,432/quintal for deliveries in November on 16 September, 3% less m/m
- INR7,608/quintal for deliveries in December on 16 September, 2% less m/m

Sep 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- While London remained closed in respect of Queen Elizabeth II's funeral procession, New York had a choppy trading day due to the firmer US$ on the one hand and the reaction to the Committment of Traders figures (15k lots of new Managed Money shorts) on the other. The market was initially under pressure, dropping 12 points at the opening to the day's lows of US$2339, where strong buying interest catapulted prices north around US$50. Later, the waters calmed and the upward momentum faded. Close US$2359; +8.

- With a high of US$2384, resistance around US$2400 holds, the question remains: How much longer? Adding fuel to the bulls' fire is the origin, where above-average rains could threaten the first yields of the main crop.

- Just before the start of the 2022/23 harvest season, farmers are apparently currently being offered buying prices of FCFA 750/kg, which is around €150 below the minimum price of FCFA 850/kg still in force. The new price will be announced on 1 October, and an increase of 25-50 FCFA is generally expected.

Sep 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With March 23 as the new second month in London, it was a fairly subdued end to the week. The March 23 traded in a GBP 1838/1855 range, thus (narrowly) breaking its previous highs at GBP 1854 and ending the day at just that / GBP +8. Closing price first month Dec 22 GBP +11 at GBP 1879. If until last week the Dec 22 / March 23 was making its way towards the level (GBP +7 on the low), it gradually widened to a premium of GBP +26. A circumstance that should play into the hands of the long-term longs in London.

- Cable broke through the 1.14 level on Friday, the lowest prices since the mid-80s. NY accordingly weakened, and this is reflected in the Commitment of Traders figures. In NY, Managed Money added an impressive 15,000 lots of new shorts and now stands at an all-time record level of 96,327 lots gross short.

- Managed money in London was more balanced with 5,487 lots of new longs and 3,319 lots of new shorts. Across all categories, both markets now hold a net long position of 70,143 lots. London remains closed today for the funeral service.

Sep 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Due to a business trip and technical problems, here is Friday's report on Thursday's market development. Friday's report will follow tomorrow.

- Led by bullish buy signals already at the opening, cocoa recorded strong momentum throughout the day and closed up over 2.5% on both markets. Closing price of the day for Dec 22: in Ldn at GBP 1868 (+46 ; +2.52%) in NY 2368 (+65 ; +2.82%). With just 119 lots open interest, the September22 position went off the board in yesterday's trading, resulting in just over 1000mt changing hands, a fraction of the 155,000mt eligible for delivery on the exchange.

- Looking at arbitrage values, renewed weakness in the British pound vs. the dollar, led to a renewed rise to close near the last 5-month range: +208 to +222 GBP vs. March to Dec23. Thus, a counter-movement in arbitrage towards GBP +185-200 should occur soon.

Sep 15  - Global turmoil impacting Indian spices market (IHSmarkit)

- Demand is expected to be subdued into Q1 2023
- Energy crisis in Europe is likely to hamper demand from that region during its winter months

- The Indian spices market has been hit by the zero Covid policy of China, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the weakness of the importing country currencies against the US dollar. Indian spice trader Mihir Mehta said: “We expect demands to be muted well into the first quarter of 2023, with the winter season being especially difficult for the Europe region, due to the impending energy crisis.”
- Mehta observed that a lot of commodity prices remain at higher levels at origins due to speculation or crop shortages. However, with the strong US dollar, many importing countries find the price levels uncompetitive for their local markets.

Cumin seed
“Cumin finally rocketed into unchartered levels on the back of speculation, a comparatively small crop in India and almost minimal crop in other origins. Even though demand from the two main importing countries – China and Bangladesh – has been lower than expected, speculators and traders have managed to keep prices at higher levels,” Mehta observed. Targets around Diwali are set at even higher levels and the future trend of the market will be determined by sowing data and export demand, he suggested. Availability of cumin seed produced to Integrated Pest Management standards is extremely limited and in strong hands.

Black pepper
Mehta reported that the Vietnam black pepper market remained steady and spiked whenever there was Chinese demand.
Brazil is expecting a good crop and prices have been very competitive. Defaults in the Middle East for Brazilian black pepper was a difficult period, and this has resulted in the exporters association creating a defaulter list, which is being widely circulated.
Black pepper prices are expected to remain stable, according to Mehta.

Cardamom
The new Indian crop of cardamom is a large one of about 32,000 tonnes and with carry-over of 5,000-6,000 tonnes, and market activities have been limited.
“Guatemala is also expecting a good-sized crop and all eyes will be on their new crop price levels at the end of the month,” Mehta added.

Cloves
Indonesia had an even smaller crop than that of last year. However, unlike last year cigarette companies did not rush in to buy at higher levels, so prices remained steady at elevated levels. Demand from this origin remained lower this year, compared with last year. Crops from the African origins are expected to be similar to last year, but logistical and bureaucratic issues continue to be challenging.
“Indian local demand is extremely muted due to financial tightness and sufficient stocks availability,” Mehta observed.

Mehta did not comment on delays to Madagascar’s crop but other industry sources did this week.

Sep 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- In a mostly bearish soft commodities market, Tuesday was no different for cocoa. Although opening flat at the start of trading, the market quickly turned as premarket trading opened in New York, a trend which would continue throughout the day.  Closing price on the day vs. Dec 22: in Ldn at GBP 1822 (-16 ; -0.9%) in NY USD 2312 (-38 ; -1.6%).

- Today the Sep 22 position goes from the board in London. With today's market opening at a Sep/Dec 22 spread of GBP 82, it is hardly surprising that only 110 lots of open interest remain and consequently very little physical volume will change hands.

- The slight strength in sterling in the afternoon played right into the hands of speculators to build new short positions against the 22 December and slightly reduce the inverse spread between 22 December and 22 March (-£9).  

- With September's close, the focus now shifts to March22, the new 2nd position. 

Sep 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With the official start of the ECA Coference in Rome today and many market participants traveling, it was a slow day in the cocoa market, with weak volume. The Dec 22 traded in a range of GBP 1821/1848 and ended the day slightly weaker at GBP -5 at GBP 1838. Tomorrow, Thursday, the Sep 22 London expires and semi-officially marks the end of this year's harvest. Shortly before the close, the Sep / Dec 22 spread narrowed by GBP -40 to GBP -55.

Sep 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- In contrast to the fortification on Friday in London, prices today weakened under the pressure of the slightly firmer currency.

- In response to the Committment of Traders figures the London longs rushed out of their position and put the markets under pressure. Later in the afternoon, trade-side buying interest cut some of the losses in half. The Dec 22 closed at GBP 1843, down 11 points. The Sep/Dec 22 spread ran further apart and is now trading at GBP-96, with a good two days to go before the Sep22 expires, with 884 contracts still open here.

- The news of the day came in the afternoon from the origin. It was announced that the CCC in Cote d'Ivoire began selling cocoa contracts for the 2023/24 season on Friday at a non-negative premium for the first time in three years. Apparently, 25,000 tons of cocoa export contracts were sold to Cargill. According to Yves Brahima Koné, director general of the CCC, the days of negative origin differentials are over.

Sep 12  - Madagascar calls international vanilla buyers to register interest (IHSmarkit)

- Call for expressions of interest organized by CNV
- Deadline to apply 30 September
- Madagascar keen to enforce $250/kg minimum export price

International vanilla buyers keen on buying Madagascar vanilla have been asked by the Malagasy ministry of industry, trade and consumption to apply in a call open until 30 September 2022.
The call for expressions of interest to create a list of verified international buyers is organized by the country’s National Vanilla Council (CNV). The CNV wants to ensure better management of the foreign trade phase in the 2022-23 season and to create a list of “verified international buyers” who voluntarily submit to a verification of their status and purchasing intentions.
“The 2021-22 season has seen a number of actors fail to comply with Inter-ministerial order nº20726/2021 that sets minimum export prices ($250/kg) for vanilla,” said CNV on 9 September. The CNV added that his has negatively affected the purchase price of green vanilla for growers.

The Malagasy government set a MGA75,000/kg ($18.17/kg) minimum price for green vanilla to ensure a decent income for the planters.

Candidate buyers must respect the minimum export prices ($250/kg) for vanilla and should not purchase vanilla outside the campaign period, said the CNV

Sep 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Prices in London opened indecisive, initially up, then quickly down. Direction only came after the opening of pre-market trading in New York, which responded to the USD and rising prices in the broad commodity market, as well as positive Asian equity trading, in all leading to positive upward momentum for the day. At a high for the day of GBP 1874, Ldn cocoa again approached its previous high for the year, from which the market had retreated mid-year. Closing price Ldn: Dec 22 GBP 1854 (+19 ; +1%), NY USD 2360 (+32 ; +1.4%).

- Commitment of Traders as of 06.09.2022 show an increasing build-up of net long positions in Ldn, with an increase of 13,104 lots from 10,982 to 24,086. In NY, the opposite is reflected with a further short build-up on the part of Managed Money by -5,675 lots from -20,439 to -26,114 lots. A development due to the currency, which makes the cost of Ldn cocoa more attractive than that in NY.

Sep 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Long overdue, a correction or breakout from the current range occurred yesterday. Dec 22 traded down to a low of GBP 1841, where it found initial support from a weak British pound, as well as cautious price hedging interest on the part of the industry (primarily for the near term). Dec 22 close, close to yesterday's lows, at GBP 1842 / GBP -21. The Dec 22 / March 22 weakened further to a premium of GBP 12/10, losing a good GBP 20 in just under a week.

- Volume was above average yesterday at 36k gross. With only 4258 lots of open interest left in Sep 22 (which expires next week), a significant change in ownership of stock market cocoa is unlikely.

- The ECB yesterday raised its key interest rate by 75 bps, more than expected. Inflation expectations were also adjusted upwards (+8.1 2022/ +5.5% 2032 / +2.3% 2024).

Sep 08  - Fall in Ethiopian sesame seed exports steepens (IHSmarkit)

- 33% fall in exports
- Production at a record low

- Ethiopian sesame seed exports reached 83,350 tonnes, worth $140.9 million, 33% less y/y in volume and 25% less in value, in January-August 2022.
- The main importers of Ethiopian sesame were Israel, the UAE and Vietnam, accounting for 30%, 18% and 11%, respectively, of the volume.
- The civil war in northern Ethiopia has halted planting works in most sesame farms and the production may be below the record low of 180,000 tonnes reached in the previous season, according to the government.

Sep 08  - Desiccated coconut market looks poised to change direction (IHSmarkit)

- Increasing production costs as demand picks up
- Typhoon fears persist

- Desicccated coconut prices are expected to increase over the coming weeks as demand is now picking up again and producers have to cover rising costs of fuel/transport and energy.

-In general, desiccated coconut prices have been drifting downwards over the last few months. One trader at leading Rotterdam trading house Catz International told S&P Global Commodity Insights: “Demand has been somewhat lower also due to the war situation in Ukraine and on top of that the crop outputs in the various coconut producing countries have been improving.”

- The latest monthly averages for August calculated by S&P Global Commodity Insights add to the impression of weakening prices. For example, all grades from Indonesia are listed at $1,375 per tonne fob Indonesia this August versus $1,540/tonne fob a month earlier. All grades from the Philippines are quoted at $2,021/tonne fob Philippines for August 2022 from $2,308 fob this July. Sri Lankan medium grade desiccated coconut is listed at $1,467/tonne fob Sri Lanka in August from $1,493/tonne fob in July.

- However, as anyone in the commodity trading sector knows, monthly averages of prices can sometimes be misleading. The Catz International trader revealed that prices are now increasing.
“It seems that the market is now more or less at bottom levels so in general the production costs have gone up. Prices of fuel and labour increased. So the minimum cost price to produce coconut with some margin also increased. So the bottom of the market may now be behind us since the demand for the winter season is now picking up both from the US and Europe,” he added.

- There is also a lot of uncertainty ahead with the Philippine typhoon season under way. Typhoons in the Philippines can occur any time of the year, but the months of June to September are usually the most active. However, in recent years, the most severe typhoons have hit in November and December, which is also when coconut crops also tend to decrease in volume. Hence, supply is likely to tail off at a time when demand will be rising further.
- Rising energy costs will be an issue for producers. In most instances the main source is electricity and the amount of gas used is relatively minor, so the hike in global electricity costs is the most relevant impact.
- Moreover, the rising fuel costs impact farmers who deliver the fresh coconuts to the factories for desiccating etc. and producers needing to get containers of fresh coconuts from the ports to their factories and then subsequently deliver the end product of desiccated coconut back to the ports.
- The trader observed that the recent improvement in demand is also indicative of increasing awareness that the situation in Ukraine will continue for a longer period than originally expected. Hence, the mindset is radically different from the state of play back in March-May this year.

- Indonesia used to export about 10-15% of its volumes to Russia.

Sep 08  - Turkish hazelnut market subdued after Ferrero announcement (IHSmarkit)

- Minimal impact on prices
- Buyers hesitant to cover at current prices

The Turkish hazelnut market has been characteristically quiet in recent weeks in line with the summer holiday period.

- Olivier Telvi of UK trader Ronly Limited, which represents Turkish hazelnut processor Ronly Gida, observed that the market was made even more quiet due to the announcement by the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) in the beginning of August of TRY52 ($2.85) per kg in-shell. TMO is currently buying at these levels but quantities are unclear. Telvi recalled that the free-market was trading around TRY45 for most of August until Ferrero announced its buying price of TRY48. “Initially this brought the market up TRY3 for in-shell but this increase was quickly lost as many sellers looked to try and make sales at the new inflated prices, he added.

- Dennis Havelaar, junior broker at QFN Trading & Agency remarked that Ferrero’s announced price was more or less as expected by most of the exporting companies.
“The announcement by Ferrero has hardly had an impact on the prices. This can be reflected on today's price indications. There are slight changes in prices compared to last week's indication. Next to this the exchange rates and demand have been quite stable last week,” Havelaar observed.

- Telvi noted that buyers continue to be unwilling to jump in at these new price levels due to the big crop estimate of more than 800,000 tonnes plus a carry-over of around 100,000 tonnes has left buyers unimpressed with current prices and happy to wait.
“On top of this, due to the currency situation in Turkey, the domestic consumption is likely to drop significantly meaning that this large crop would need to be exported,” Telvi explained.
New crop

- Telvi said that in terms of quality, despite early forecasts of perfect growing conditions and low insect activity, there appears to be a higher cimicato in incoming raw material from lower altitude growing regions. This is expected to be lower in higher growing regions.

- Havelaar listed the following Status update on the harvest and drying of the new crop:
    High part of Black Sea area: picking still going on
    Middle part of Black Sea area: picking finished, drying process still going on
    Sea side area: picking and drying finished

So far there has not been any changes in the expected availability of the different sizes. The breakdown for NHK is the same as last week:
    9-11mm 10%
    11-13mm 50%
    13-15mm 40%

Prices
QFN Trading expects the hazelnut prices to mostly be determined by the demand and currency exchange. Compared with last week’s indications, prices did move down by a moderate $5-10 per 100 kg. QFN can offer in euro prices upon request. It gave the following current price indications for 2022 crop 2022 (class 1) on a per 100 kg delivered Europe (DAP) basis:

    Roasted meal 0-2mm $575 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    Roasted diced 2-4mm $590 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    Roasted diced 5-7mm $600 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    Roasted diced 8-12mm $610 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    S.r. blanched 11-13mm <10% skin $650 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    S.r. blanched 12-14mm <10% skin $650 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    S.r. blanched 12-14mm <5% skin $650 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    NHK 11-13mm $560 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    NHK 13-15mm $560 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum

For shipments per container, cfr EMP: deduction $6/100kg (subject to final destination port).
Surcharge for extra class: $10/100kg.
Dispatch September 2022 onwards.

Sep 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With yesterday's low of GBP 1858 / Dec 22, the market traded and reconfirmed the 6-day range of GBP 1850 / GBP 1884. We leave it to everyone to interpret whether this means inactivity or stability. Closing GBP -2 at GBP 1863 at the lower end of the range just mentioned. - A further weak British pound should provide further support.

- NY, with a close of $-19 at $2350, is making its way to the lower end of the $2300/2450 range that has lasted since July.

- With between 9-10 months of price cover (a 4-5 week cut in August), the industry continues to be reasonably comfortably covered, waiting for a correction. A fresh BDU Nigeria was successfully graded yesterday.

Sep 07  - Slight increase in Indian sesame spot prices (IHSmarkit)

- 2% m/m increase in spot prices
- Futures prices stabilised at INR9,500 for deliveries in October, November and December

- India’s new sesame seed (whitish) spot price averaged INR13,350/quintal ($167.1/quintal) on 6 September 2022, at the Unjha wholesale market (Gujarat, North East), 2% more month-on-month and 32% more year-on-year. The summer sesame production has fallen by 25% y/y to 132,000 tonnes due to heatwaves. Currently, the Indian industry needs around 20,000 tonnes to cover the domestic and international demand monthly, according to European trading sources. This means there may be a 30,000 tonnes-gap until the arrival of the next crop, pushing up prices for all the origins, particularly the Africans.

- Indian exports were 125,787tonnes, worth $162.3 million, in H1 2022, 3% less y/y in volume and 12% more in value. The main importers were South Korea, China and the US, which took 19%, 8% and 7% of the volume, respectively.

- Imports reached 13,920 tonnes in H1 2022, 17% less y/y. The main suppliers were Sudan and Nigeria, which accounted for 89% and 4%, respectively.

- The daily futures market prices on NCDEX were:
    Deliveries in August closed at INR13,000/quintal on 18 August, 2% less m/m
    Prices have been stabilised at INR9,500 for deliveries in October (1 July-6 September), November and December.

Sep 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With New York back after the long weekend, at least there was some life in the market. Due to the specs' position change and a further firm US$, the NY market corrected by US$ 61 at its peak on Dec 22, closing weak at US$ -47 at US$ 2369.

- London followed suit, with the handbrake on, and (at least) with a closing price of GBP -10 at GBP 1865 / Dec 22. The rest of the board, however, ended the day almost unchanged. The London market is technically overdue for a correction. Next significant support should start at GBP 1850.

- NY continues to reaffirm its sideways movement, with the short-term moving averages within "spitting distance" of yesterday's close.

Sep 06  - Port Sudan activity recovery favours a price rise in gum Arabic (IHSmarkit)

- 5% increase in gum Arabic prices
- Sesame prices at highs

- Port Sudan is working in full swing after suffering paralysis for several months due to social riots, fuelling exports and prices of key exporting commodities such as gum Arabic and sesame, trading sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

- Gum Arabic grade one was listed between $2,250-2,300/tonne fob Port Sudan this August, 5% more than the level of $2,150 listed in H1 2021. Meanwhile, grade two, mainly demanded in India, was being traded at $900/tonne fob.
“Prices are going to be stabilised at this level until 2023 at least as the harvest is coming and there are still high carry-over stocks due to the previous paralysis in Port Sudan,” the commercial director of FAAS Trade & Investment, Fares Oufi, explained.

- Meanwhile, sesame prices were quoted at $1,600/tonne fob. “Harvest is still some way off, and the industry needs to recover from losses suffered previously,” Oufi explained. It is hard to know if this level will continue in the mid and the long-term. “China is the main purchaser of the domestic crop and prices will follow trend led by its importers,” Oufi concluded.

Sep 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With the London market flying solo, there was no significant (or any) reaction to the Managed Money Specs position change (see yesterday's report). With just over 10,000 lots gross turnover (just over 5,000 lots net) and a GBP 15 range in Dec 22, it was a distinctly subdued start to the week. The Dec 22 session ended the day at GBP -7 at GBP 1875.

- The IRI Confectionery Monitor reports a 3% decline in chocolate sales (ex-season) in the first half of 2022 vs. 2021, with chocolate bars (-5.9%) and "surprises" (-15.6%) the main loss-makers.

- After the successful "finding process" of the new prime minister in the UK, the British pound recovered slightly vs. the US$ overnight. The EUR continues to be weak against the major currencies.

Sep 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- In a fairly quiet session before the weekend, the signs on Friday were for consolidation. Both a clear upward and downward breakout failed, with the Dec 22 ending the day at GBP +18 at GBP 1882, close to the weekly highs of GBP 1884. However, it was the highest close in 10 months now.

- The Commitment of Traders Report shows, within Managed Money, a more significant position change than suspected. Managed Money liquidated shorts and added fresh longs in almost equal proportions. In the end, the speculative position was reduced by almost 2/3 (+17,853 lots) to only 9,457 lots short. The net position on both markets now shows a long position of 54,203 lots long (+23,605).

- New York remains closed today (Labour Day), it is now up to the London market to react to this significant change on its own.

Sep 02  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- Iran set to boost honey output
- Indian coriander seed exports down 20% in January-June 2022
- Uruguay has good results on honey exports in H1 2022

Production
- Indian coriander seed output this year is projected at 811,000 tonnes, cutting the previous estimate by 10,000 tonnes and 10% less y/y. Indian farmers have reduced bearing planted area and investment in fertilisers after suffering low prices for several years.
- Iran’s 2022-23 (21 March 2022-20 March 2023) honey production is expected to reach 115,000 tonnes, 3,000 tonnes up from the previous season. The government is promoting the honey industry to fuel rural incomes and raise the average yield in agricultural production.
- Uruguay had a bumper 2022 honey crop of 12,000 tonnes, 20% more y/y.

Demand
- Vietnam pepper has lost some export share in the first seven months of this year (see Trade below).
- Indian coriander seed recorded a decline in export sales in H1 2022 (see Trade below).
- Uruguay generated strong overseas demand for its honey in the first six months of this year (see Trade below).

Trade

- Vietnam’s pepper exports in January-July 2022 fell by 21% year-on-year in volume to 142,550 tonnes and by 8% in value to $639.8 million. Brazilian international sales of pepper in the same period (January-July 2022) fell by 11% y/y to 45,691 tonnes in volume and by 26% in value to $183.1 million.
- Indian coriander seed exports fell by 20% y/y in volume to 22,380 tonnes but grew by 8% in value to $36.2 million in H1 2022. The main importers of whole coriander seed were Malaysia, the UAE and Nepal, which took 38%, 12% and 11%, respectively.
- Uruguay’s honey exports in H1 2022 reached 7,080 tonnes, worth $25.6 million, 40% more year-on-year in volume and 51% more in value as exporters have increased their market share in the US (accounting for 80% of the volume), after the latter imposed anti-dumping measures on other South American origins such as Argentina and Brazil.

Price
- The Indian coriander spot price averaged INR11,618/quintal ($151.8/quintal) at Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 29 August 2022, 4% less month-on-month and 47% more year-on-year.

- Spanish farmgate honey prices closed the season (April 2021-March 2022) stabilised at highs, despite a slight and gradual fall in Q1 2022 due to weak demand.
- Bulk multi-flower honey averaged €3.38/kg ($2.9/kg) in March 2022, 5% less than in January and year-on-year.
- The bulk honeydew honey price was €6.94/kg in March 2022, stagnant between April-March and 33% more y/y.
- The packed multi-flower honey price averaged €5.70/kg in March 2022, 2% more than in January 2022 and 10% more y/y.

Sep 02  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)  

- 7.8% increase in the Chilean walnut crop expected
- Spanish almond processors are raising purchases due to a disappointing crop estimate in the 2022-23 season
- 3% m/m increase in Turkish dried fig prices as the harvest is in full swing

Production
- California’s almond harvest is in full swing, but farmers are having to deal with a challenging combination of high temperatures and moisture. Average yield is low in the Sacramento Valley and, as a consequence, many orchards will not be harvested.
- Chile’s 2022-23 walnut and almond production rose by 7.8% and 3.6%, respectively, to 165,000 tonnes and 11,400 tonnes, respectively, thanks to growing acreage and rising yields.
- The Australian macadamia crop is on track to reach 49,340 in-shell tonnes at 3.5% moisture (52,900 in-shell tonnes at 10% moisture) in 2022, according to the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS) in its latest crop update.
- The International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) estimates this year’s global dried cranberry production at 194,836 tonnes, significantly higher than the 167,493 tonnes produced in the 2021/22 season.
- Market sources report that Turkey’s 2022 dried mulberry crop has halved from that of last year to 4,000 tonnes.

Demand
- Chilean walnut consumption is still low, with 2,750 tonnes projected in the 2022-23 season (+1.9% y/y). Walnuts are mainly consumed as snacks or as ingredient for desserts and confectionery in Chile. Chile’s almond consumption is expected to increase by 1.3% y/y to 7,900 tonnes in the same period.

Trade
- Spain’s imports of almonds reached 108,500 tonnes from August 2021-June 2022, 8% more year-on-year as processors expect that the domestic crop will not cover their necessities. May and June data revealed record purchases of 12,290 tonnes (+89% y/y) and 9,660 tonnes (+40% y/y), respectively.
- Turkey’s dried fig exports reached 570 tonnes in the week ending on 27 August 2022, 60% more y/y, bringing seasonal sales (6 October 2021-27 August 2022) to 64,610 tonnes valued at $241.5 million, 3% less in volume and $600,000 more than in the previous season.

Price
- Trading sources gave the following price indications for 2021 Turkish crop hazelnuts (class 1) on a per 100 kg, delivered Europe (dap) basis. With the current Turkish lira-US dollar exchange and the latest (new) crop news, prices have decreased.

    Roasted meal 0-2mm $570 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    Roasted diced 2-4mm $595 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    Roasted diced 5-7mm $605 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    Roasted diced 8-12mm $615 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    S.r. blanched 11-13mm <10% skin $655in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    S.r. blanched 12-14mm <10% skin $660 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    S.r. blanched 12-14mm <5% skin $660 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    NHK 11-13mm $560 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    NHK 13-15mm $565 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum

- Weekly Turkish dried fig fob prices in the week ending on 27 August 2022 were:

    Whole dried figs, $4,112/tonne, 3% less m/m and 11% more y/y
    Cut dried figs, $3,185/tonne, 18% less m/m and 20% more y/y

Sep 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- In a half-hearted attempt, the Dec 22 LDN tried to break through yesterday's highs of GBP 1884 in the morning. The attempt failed and GBP 1884 marked yesterday's high again. Price hedges from the origin then caused a small correction and the Dec 22 ended the day at GBP -14 at GBP 1864. Another target for the London market should be prices just below GBP 1900, which marked the highs from October last year.

- Sterling continues to weaken and this alone will probably be enough to bring support into the market (at least in the short term). In 2 weeks the Sep 22 goes off the board. While the Sep / Dec 22 spread continues to trade heavily at a discount (GBP -78 close), the "new crop spread" Dec 22 / Mar 23 is sucking up around GBP +30. This should be watched more closely, with almost all shorts underwater, this could lead to a rethink of specs.

Sep 02  - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- Brazil’s coffee exports fall to 2.3 million 60-kg bags
- Honduras exported 297,651 60-kg bags of coffee in August
- Russia’s Stars Coffee replaces Starbucks

Production
- Brazilian coffee farmers harvested 98% of the 2022/23 coffee crop by 30 August, an advance of 3 percentage points during the past week, according to local consultancy Safras & Mercado. The company said that farmers harvested 59.9 million 60-kg bags out of a projected 61.1 million, which does not include any downward revision of the crop as indicated by the company's coffee analyst Gil Barabach last week. Barabach had said last week that the crop may reach only 58.0-58.5 million bags this season due to lower-than-expected arabica production.

Demand

- New coffee chain Stars Coffee, which is taking over Starbucks outlets in Russia after the US company pulled out over the invasion of Ukraine, has opened its first Moscow cafe on 18 August, according to local press reports. It is owned by a pro-Putin rapper and a restaurateur. The cafés were closed by Starbucks in March and the company completely withdrew from Russia in May. Starbucks had almost 2,000 employees in Russia and 130 stores. Staff members remain on full pay through the autumn.

Trade

- Brazil exported only 139,822 tonnes (2.330 million 60-kg bags) of green coffee in August 2022, down from 172,424 tonnes (2.874 million bags) in the same month last year and also below 146,797 tonnes (2.447 million bags) in July, data from the Trade Ministry show. This brought total green coffee exports in the first five months of the 2022/23 (April/March) crop year to 10.598 million bags, down 28.3% from 14.782 million shipped in the same period last year. In fact, this was the lowest quantity of exports for this time of year since 2018/19.
- Honduras exported only 297,651 60-kg bags of coffee in August 2022, down from 418,076 in the same month last year. Costa Rica exported 103,367 60-kg bags of coffee in August 2022, up 5.3% from 98,176 in the same month last year.

Price
- Coffee prices were mostly negative this week, as the market was pressured by a depreciation of the Brazilian currency. December arabica ended down 2.75 cents at 232.50 cents per pound by September 1, while November robusta fell by $22 to settle at $2,228 per tonne. Brazil’s CEPEA/ESALQ said its index for arabica coffee type 6, delivered to São Paulo city, closed at BRL1,344.99 ($267.61) per bag on 29 August, 3.3% higher than a week earlier.

Sep 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Yesterday's expiration of the Sep 22 options provided another lively trading day at the end of the month with a focus on the 1800 mark in the first month. With good liquidity of 53k lots, price cover and short covering battled it out with the support of the still weak British pound.

- The Sep/Dec22 spread widened further to GBP -80, also in light of another 3 BDU Cameroon passing grading in London in the last few days. The 2nd month again marked a new high at GBP 1884, trading as high as it has since late October 2021.

- The Dec 22 contract gained GBP 15 at close and ended the day at GBP 1878, with the Dec22/Mar22 spread running to GBP 35 and attracting a sizeable 5.5k lots.

- The British Pound remains weak and seems to have quite an impact on the events in London.

Sep 01  - Vietnamese and Brazilian pepper exports clearly behind 2021 (IHSmarkit)

- 21% fall in Vietnamese exports
- Vietnam was the main importer of Brazilian pepper

Vietnam’s pepper exports in January-July 2022 fell by 21% year-on-year in volume to 142,550 tonnes and by 8% in value to $639.8 million.

The US, India and the UAE were the main importers, accounting for 25%, 8% and 7%, respectively, of the total volume.

Brazilian international sales of pepper in the same period (January-July 2022) fell by 11% y/y to 45,691 tonnes in volume and by 26% in value to $183.1 million.

Vietnam, Morocco and the UAE were the main importers, accounting for 18%, 9% and 8%, respectively, of the volume.

Sep 01 - Turkish hazelnut prices take market players by surprise (IHSmarkit)

-  Traded levels below those of the TMO
-  Export prices expected to decline slightly in the coming weeks

- The Turkish Grain Board’s (TMO’s) announced hazelnut purchasing price was expected to be the bottom level for hazelnuts that were sold in recent days, but this was not the case.
- Dennis Havelaar, junior broker at QFN Trading & Agency explained that in the local market (free market) in-shell hazelnuts were traded at TRY43 ($2.36) or TRY44 compared with the (TMO) announced price of TRY52 or TRY54.
- The farmers selling at these prices are not happy about the selling price, but not every farmer can sell his stock to TMO as TMO has a buying capacity too. “For this reason, prices for export may be going down slightly in the coming weeks,” Havelaar suggested.

- The market is further awaiting the announced purchasing price of Ferrero, which should be done by the end of this week or during the beginning of next week. The currency exchange will also continue to shape the export prices. The Turkish Lira continues to lose value against the US dollar. The euro also remains weak against the US dollar.

New crop
- The new crop is harvested and will be finished in the coming week.
“The quality is good and we are looking at a total quantity of about 760,000 in-shell tonnes, which is in line with earlier expectations,” Havelaar said.

- It seems that the sizes available in the market will be approximately (for natural hazelnut kernel):
    9-11mm 10%
    11-13mm 50%
    13-15mm 40%
Usually, 13-15mm would be the most available size (and mostly purchased as well), but the weather conditions during the growing season result in the slightly smaller sizes being more available.

- QFN gave the following price indications for 2021 crop hazelnuts (class 1) on a per 100 kilo, delivered Europe (dap) basis. Havelaar noted that with the current Turkish lira-US dollar exchange and the latest (new) crop news, prices have decreased.

    Roasted meal 0-2mm $570 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    Roasted diced 2-4mm $595 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    Roasted diced 5-7mm $605 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    Roasted diced 8-12mm $615 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    S.r. blanched 11-13mm <10% skin $655in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    S.r. blanched 12-14mm <10% skin $660 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    S.r. blanched 12-14mm <5% skin $660 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    NHK 11-13mm $560 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum
    NHK 13-15mm $565 in 10kg cartons net/net vacuum

For shipments per container, cfr EMP: deduction $6/100kg (subject to final destination port).
Surcharge for extra class: $10/100kg.
Dispatch September 2022 onwards.

Aug 31 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Although the theoretically firmer opening in London was unsurprisingly ignored, prices slowly rose in the morning. However, the onset of profit-taking wiped this out. Support from a weak British Pound and increased short-covering began around GBP 1840 basis 2nd month, breaking through resistance at the highs of early May. Close at GBP 1863 basis Dec 22, a new high for the year for the 2nd month. Whether the pound weakness now secures further support for London, or rather throws stones in the New York effort, remains questionable. At least yesterday's move was a new impulse in the direction that was expected by the majority. In any case, the establishment and expansion of a long position makes sense from a speculative point of view in light of the inverse structure. There seems to be little resistance from price hedges on unfixed contracts.

Aug 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Since the London market was closed due to yesterday's holiday ("Late Summer Holiday"), NY ventured alone on the floor, but met the expectations of an uneventful day. Moderate volume (22k lots) and an almost unchanged close 3 points down at US$2418 Dec 22. Only the Sep22 gained 15 points and the front spread converged accordingly. A look at the currencies is more interesting, the British pound is in a current phase of weakness against the USD and also the EUR, even if it is currently recovering minimally. Nevertheless, this could support the London market today. Opening is calculated with GBP +15. Origin? Little news.

- Although the reports of good rainfall in West Africa predominate, which in Nigeria recently even turned out almost too heavy, here and there again reports about drought and worried farmers seep through.

Aug 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- On the last trading day of the week and before the long weekend (at least in London), it was another tragically tired event. The Dec 22 traded in a GBP 1827 / 1847 range and ended the day at the highs of GBP 1847 / GBP +12. Still, the highest close since early May. If the week felt much longer after a rollercoaster ride in the markets and a range of just under GBP 70, the weekly change was almost marginal at GBP +22.

- The lower open interest in recent days suggests further liquidation of short positions. Commitment of Traders as of 23.08 shows an increase in the combined net long position from 10,617 lots to now 30,498 lots long. Managed Money did not liquidate 3,000 lots of its short position and (still) holds a speculative short position of 27,310 lots.

Aug 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- A test of yesterday's highs some time after the expected weak opening (GBP-10) failed to find sufficient volume, leading to a test of the support at the opening lows (GBP 1816 basis 2nd month), where sufficient buying interest closed the door on the downside. A sluggish morning unfolded in this range in anticipation of the New York opening. The retest of the lows in London then triggered systemic buying orders from NY and took London to yet another new 3 month high (GBP 1845 basis 2nd month), above the technical resistance at the "double top" from earlier in the week (see chart). However, the close was below this mark and the Dec 22 ended the day at GBP 1835 (+6).

- Seemingly missing to date, however, the decisive impetus in the direction of new longs, at least these are apparently more or less on the sidelines and hope for their substitution.

- In the Grading Room, 2 BDUs are under the knife today, so far the only grading in August. London will be closed on Monday.

Aug 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The expected firming in London due to the $30 rally in the New York market the day before did not turn out to be as breathtaking as expected at the opening, and the market oscillated back and forth in a GBP 15 range with tragically weak volume of only 5k lots. However, the opening in New York at 14h breathed life into the markets as solid buying interest set in there despite a firmer USD. London had no chance to hold and stumbled along towards Monday's highs around GBP 1830/1835, where unfixed origin covers slowed down the rally. Close December was 42 points up at GBP 1829, total + 2.3%. So Tuesday's lows are off the table for now, which in cocoa means as much as nothing.

- It would be little surprise if this attempted breakout once again remained a bubble. The opening in London is calculated at GBP -19, and the GBP has slightly strengthened overnight. In addition, the markets are heavily overbought.

- On the fundamental track, the origin is more relaxed about the new crop in view of recent rainfall (although this is too heavy in Nigeria).

Aug 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After the small upward movement just before the close the previous day, the London market made every effort to hold on to this (short and pitiful) momentum. The Dec 22 traded at highs of GBP 1826 on just 1500 lots net turnover by midday. Just in time for the official NY open at 2pm, the market corrected and the second month broke through GBP 1800, as well as GBP 1794 (100 day moving average) support.

- In contrast to the previous day, the industry showed up with price hedges towards GBP 1800, as well as strengthened below GBP 1800 in the market, short-term shorts (in LDN) also sought cover and provided further support. Dec 22 ended the day GBP -32 at GBP 1787, with new 6-week lows ($2318) in NY.

- The abrupt turnaround in the market there suggests that the shorts that were liquidated last weeks have been resumed, at least in part. In NY, there was a small upward movement in the after-hours. Hence the theoretically firm opening of GBP +25.

Aug 22  - Indian turmeric spot prices close to falling below INR7,000/quintal (IHSmarkit)

-  7% fall in spot prices
- 11% growth in exports

- The Indian spot fob unpolished turmeric price averaged INR7,037.60 ($87.9) per quintal at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, South Central) on 22 August, 7% less month-on-month.
- Harvesting finished in May. The planted area has increased by 19% y/y to 306,000 hectares and the crop did that by 17% y/y to 1.33 million tonnes, according to the Spices Board of India (SBI).
- The country’s global sales reached 86,090 tonnes, 11% more year-on-year, worth $116.6 million, in H1 2022, 15% more y/y in value. The main importers were Bangladesh, the UAE and Morocco, taking 19%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of the volume.

- The updated daily futures market prices on NCDEX were:
    Deliveries in August closed at INR 7,024/quintal on 17 August, 9% less m/m
    INR 7,328/quintal for deliveries in September on 19 August, 7% less m/m

Aug 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

 - Supported by a further weak British pound, the Dec 22 traded in a narrow or almost unchanged range of GBP 1825/1835 for long stretches. Only one hour before the close  movement came into play. An upside breakout towards the formerl highs / double top at GBP 1841 failed, after touching yesterday's high of GBP 1838 the market corrected around GBP 24 and found good support at GBP 1800 (low GBP 1805). Close Dec 22 GBP -6 at GBP 1819.

- NY Dec 22 ended the day $-18 at $2356 and the New York market is thus back in the lower third in the "summer range". Industrial activity seems to be further into the summer break. If we assume price coverage (estimated) by 10 months, the thin volume for 2023 speaks louder than words.

- Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as of 21.08 are at 2.05 mil mt vs. 2.14 mil mt from the previous year (-4.2%).

Aug 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- At the end of the week, we saw an almost identical move to the previous day. Dec 22 traded in a narrow GBP 21 range and found good resistance at Thursday's highs at GBP 1841. Technically, these should provide further resistance. Dec 22 ended the day slightly weaker at GBP -2 at GBP 1825.

- As of 16.08. Managed Money liquidated almost 10,000 lots of its short position, mind you this came before the rise in prices last Wednesday. The net change in position was +14,229 lots, with both markets now holding a combined position of 19,881 lots long.

Aug 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After an initially uneventful opening in Ldn and NY with low trading volume, the expected upward momentum came in the afternoon for both markets. Aggressive buying activity in both Ldn and NY led prices in Ldn to trade to levels of GBP 1825, a price not seen since early June. Ldn closed slightly below its high at GBP 1819 vs. Dec22 (GBP +36; +2%), thus also just GBP 1 below the next resistance line at GBP 1820.

- The same momentum was seen in NY, where a closing price of $2421 vs Dec22 was posted (+$51; +2.15%). Yesterdays price move  was inline with the steady uptrend that has been forming since mid-July with continued slightly higher highs and higher lows.

- A move that may be indicative of growing concern in the market about the state of the upcoming harvest, due to increased drought in much of West Africa by seasonal standards, as well as lack of fertiliser application due to price inflation. The result of yesterday's emergency meeting in Ghana: The Central Bank of Ghana on Wednesday approved its largest-ever interest rate hike of 300 basis points to 22% as an urgent measure to counter the 31.7% inflation reported in July.

Aug 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After two more or less uneventful days, yesterday some life came back into the market. With almost twice as much volume as the previous day, good selling pressure ended the climb of the quotations and so also the attempt of the 2nd month Dec 22 to overcome the GBP 1800 upwards. For most of the day, it remained at the 100-day moving average around GBP 1790, but came under further pressure in the evening (low GBP 1776) and managed to close below at GBP 1783, still down 20 points. Technically, support can be expected at the 50-day moving average (GBP 1780) and in perspective by the 200-day moving average (GBP 1767).

- Markets are still slightly overbought, but renewed bullish news is piling up. Concerns about crop development in Ghana are growing, and inflation expectations there of at least 32% make Ghana more and more dependent on the IMF. In this regard, the Ghana Monetary Policy Committee has called an emergency meeting for today to review Ghana's economic performance.

Aug 16 - Number of vessels to load sugar in Brazil surges, August exports 30% up
The line-up of vessels expected to load sugar at Brazilian ports surged this month and government data on Monday showed the country's exports of the sweetener are on track to a 30% jump in August. Data from shipping agency Williams showed 86 vessels expected to load 3.6 million tonnes of mostly raw sugar for exports at Brazilian ports currently.

Aug 16  - Fall in Indian guar gum prices steepens in July (IHSmarkit)

- 5% m/m fall in July spot prices 
- 16% growth in exports

- India’s guar gum spot price closed July at INR9,285/quintal ($116.7/quintal) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 29 July 2022, 5% less month-on-month when oil prices have started a bearish trend due to concerns about a global recession.
- Indian guar gum exports rose by 16% y/y to 100,770 tonnes, valued at $116.2 million in January-May 2022, 84% more. The US, Germany and Russia accounted for 32%, 14% and 12% (volume), respectively.
-The daily futures market prices on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) were:
    Deliveries in July 2022 closed at INR9,193/quintal on 20 July 2022, 9% less m/m
    INR8,383/quintal for deliveries in August 2022 on 12 August 2022, 17% less m/m

Aug 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The slump in the Chinese economy sent the commodity world into turmoil yesterday, and while crude oil lost almost 6%, the cocoa market once again showed indifference.

- With a firm opening it found good support and brought quotations in London above the psychological mark of GBP 1800 base 2 month. Dec 22 marked a high of GBP 1818 where incipient selling pressure from price hedges ended the journey north. However, closing price was still GBP 7 up, above GBP 1800 at GBP 1803, but volume was weak at 16k lots.

- From the origin, Ghana reported purchases of 661k mt as of early July, well below last year's record crop of around 1 million mt. While this report should not surprise anyone (Ghana has been significantly behind last year's crop since the beginning of the current crop and is only slowly catching up), the lack of fertilizer is fueling concerns about the upcoming crop.

Aug 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After opening with slight gains, the days trend quickly reversed and Ldn Cocoa lost more than GBP15 within the first 30 minutes of trading.

- Reinforced by a negative opening in pre-market trading in New York, it also remained in a downtrend for the day. Ldn ended the day vs Dec22 at GBP1896 (GBP -15; -0.82%), once again below its recetly broken resistance line at GBP1800. NY Cocoa  ended the day with a stronger correction of -2.32% at USD 2394 vs. Dec22, thereby more than halving the  weekly gain built up untill Thursday end of trade.

- NY ended the week up 2.3%, while London gained 1.4%. The Commitment of Traders show a further increase of net shorts positions of -530lots in Ldn and -220 lots in NY. On the spec side, we see a net short reduction of 1400 lots in Ldn and a contrary further net short build-up of 950 lots in NY. Combined, specs hold a -39224 net short position.  

Aug 15  - Philippines sugar imports still possible, president says
Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said the country's doors remain open to additional sugar imports, though volumes are likely to be much less than a previously proposed 300,000 tonnes. Marcos last week rejected the proposal to import up to 300,000 tonnes of raw and refined sweetener, purportedly approved recently by the Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA), of which he is board chairman.

Aug 15  - Global cocoa market seen balanced in 2022/23, prices to edge up

The cocoa market is expected to move from a deficit in the 2021/22 season (Oct-Sept) to a balanced situation in 2022/23 as production grows in Africa, but prices are seen rising slightly nevertheless, according to a Reuters poll of eight analysts and brokers. The median forecast for the global cocoa supply balance in 2021/22 is for a deficit of 190,000 tonnes, compared to a shortfall of 150,000 tonnes seen in the previous poll in February.

Aug 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With a range of GBP 16 (GBP 1799 - 1815), there was little activity in the markets yesterday either. Dec 22 found resistance towards the July highs (GBP 1815) and scattered support around GBP 1800. Dec 22 closed GBP +5 at GBP 1811. Markets are slightly overbought and, at least from a technical perspective, the market is unlikely to break higher.

- The ICCO warned yesterday of a drop in production in West Africa for the coming crop. The shortage of fertiliser could have a further negative impact on the output.

- A state-led fund in Cameroon plans to invest 40 billion CFA ($63 million) over 4 years in cocoa farming and infrastructure. The goal is to double the crop to about 600,000mt by 2026.

Aug 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Without much conviction, Dec 22 headed towards the late July highs around GBP 1815 yesterday, ultimately lacking the drive of fundamental market participants to break through and Dec 22 marked yesterday's high of GBP 1808, closing GBP +3 at GBP 1806.

- New York sent a clearer signal (relatively), driven by larger specs/funds buy orders in the second session, NY Dec 22 broke through its sideways movement and ended the day at $ +34 at 2438.

Aug 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Trading within a small range of 1.2% on the day, Tuesdays daily movement remained small but 100% bullish. Opening Dec22 at GBP 1785, high 1805 to close above the often tested GBP 1800 resistance line at 1803 (+1.06%). Next upside resistance stands at GBP 1820.

- New York traded at an only slightly wider price range on the day: opening Dec22 at USD 2380, daily range 1.56% to close at +USD 24 at 2408.

- We are in a market where the Ivory Coast has fully sold its main crop, Managed Money Global Gross Short probably still holds more than 100,000 lots and the industry is well covered at 9.5 to 10.5 months. This raises the question of what news can come to break the recent lows at GBP1735. Could something finally be brewing?

- Côte D'Ivoire reports arrivals from the current crop at 2,034 Mln mt, -3.6% year-on-year, as well as a strong grindinding numbers of 529k mt, up 68k mt (14.7%) on last year's 461k mt.

Aug 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The summer season of a certain indecisiveness continues. It seems as if the markets react to any impulses either not at all, or extremely short-term and then quite clearly. As a consequence, no clear line emerges, but a typical up and down, so also yesterday. In a range of 25 GBP little happened most of the day. The Dec 22 contract tested the 200-day moving average around GBP 1760, but immediately found good support from numerous purchase orders from the industry and day traders. The previous day's losses were collected and the second month closed 12 points firmer at GBP 1784, just below the technical resistance of the 100-day moving average.

- From the origin we receive reports of confident farmers who expect a good upcoming harvest due to good soil moisture and rainfall.

Aug 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- London retested resistance at GBP 1800 on Friday, but found headwinds there from isolated price hedging against origin cover. The 2nd month Dec 22 ended the week 8 points weaker at GBP 1772. Otherwise, the local market watched from the sidelines of the extremely volatile performance in New York, where the release of the U.S. unemployment figures with a respectable 528k lower unemployment (-3.5%) and a renewed increase in the U.S. federal interest rate expected for September by the Federal Reserve strengthened the U.S. dollar.

- The cocoa market in NY faltered as a result, but soon found good support and allowed the arbitrage to diverge, attracting buyers in London, which smoothed the waters somewhat.

- Commitment of Traders show a reduction in net long position in NY (-6.6k lots) and 10k new shorts in London. Across both markets now 6.4k net long. In NY, specs are also expanding their short position, London is stagnant. Combined by -7.6k to -39.6k net short.

Aug 05  - Asia Coffee-Prices hover near 4-yr high in Vietnam on stronger dollar (Reuters)

- Coffee prices in Vietnam hovered near a four-year high this week due to a stronger U.S. dollar and no stocks at the end of the crop season, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold coffee COFVN-DAK at 44,500-46,000 dong($1.90-$1.97) per kilogram, the highest for this crop year so far and since late-August 2017.
“A stronger dollar contributed to the rise, together with empty inventories,” said a trader based in Ho Chi Minh City.

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount of $20-$40 per tonne to the November contract. According to a Reuters poll, Vietnam was forecast to have a crop of 30 million bags of 60 kg each in 2022/23, slightly below the prior season.
“It’s still too soon to estimate the output,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.
“As fertiliser prices have been sky high over the past year, many farmers switched to other crops. Output might be lower this new season.”

- London November robusta coffee settled up $3 at $2,023 per tonne on Wednesday.
- Coffee exports from Vietnam were estimated to have increased 18.4% in the first seven months of this year from a year earlier to 1.1 million tonnes, equal to 19 million 60-kg bags, according to the statistics office.
- Meanwhile, exports of Indonesia’s Sumatra robusta coffee beans in June jumped 45.98% to 16,511.68 tonnes from a year earlier, official data showed. Sumatra robusta beans were offered in a $50-$60 discount range to the August and September contracts, a trader in Lampung province said, while another trader offered a $140 discount to the September contract, all unchanged from a week ago.

“There was stiff competition for beans among local exporters,” one of the traders said. ($1 = 23,407 dong)

Aug 05  - Market Briefing: Fresh Fruit and Vegetables (IHSmarkit)

- Argentinean 2022 lemon production is expected to be 1.8 million tonnes
- China suspended imports of Taiwanese citrus amid the growing tension
- US conventional avocado average retail selling prices grew faster than organic

Production
- Spanish 2022 garlic production is expected to be around 220,000 tonnes, 20% less y/y, due to low temperatures between March-April and heavy spring rains. This unfavourable weather cut sun hours and the average yield, particularly in Castile-La Mancha and Andalusia, the main origins.
- Argentinean lemon production is expected to be 1.8 million tonnes in 2022, up from last year’s 1.5 million tonnes. About 25% of production should be destined for fresh consumption.
- Italy’s 2022 pear production is expected to double last year’s to 470,000 tonnes, but it is still 20% lower than 2020 and 35% less than in 2018.

Demand

- In 2022, British consumers are expected to eat over 90,000 tonnes of home-grown strawberries, 3% up y/y. With increasing innovation in growing techniques and investment in new varieties, the UK is now self-sufficient in strawberries from May to late October. Over half of Brits say that they buy berries weekly, with the nation eating more than 107,000 tonnes of British berries in 2021. Research data shows that 18 to 24-year-olds are the nation’s biggest berry consumers with seven in 10 purchasing a punnet at least once a week – compared with just four in 10 of those aged 55 to 64.

Trade
- China suspended imports of Taiwanese citrus fruit and some chilled and frozen fish on 3 August 2022 amid the growing tension between the mainland and Taiwan. Taiwan’s citrus exports were close to $20 million in 2021, with China accounting for 52% of the total value. Taiwan’s total sales to the mainland, Hong Kong SAR and Macau combined reached $14.3 million, 3% up y/y. While China is a huge market and shows great long-term potential growth for produce, some countries are aware of its geopolitical approach, the current zero-Covid policy and the material impact or disruption on the trade.
- Latin America exported a total of 40,000 tonnes of organic blueberries in the last season. Chile exported 15,800 tonnes (-24% y/y) while Peru reached 9,000 tonnes (24% up y/y).

Price
- The US conventional avocado average retail selling price (ASP) was $1.37 each YTD 12 June 2022, 26% higher than the ASP for full year of 2021; organic ASP was $1.71 each compared with $1.61 for 2021. Conventional ASP grew at a faster rate than organic.
- On 3 August 2022, the US conventional blueberry terminal (Los Angeles) price for flats 12 1-pt cups with lids of Oregon origin was in the range of $23-25 compared with $10-12 a year ago (3 August 2021), an increase of 130-108% y/y. At terminal market prices of Chicago (3 August 2022), organic blueberries of the same specification (Oregon) averaged $48.5 compared with $28 a year ago, 73% up y/y.
- In the week 23-30 period, the UK strawberry average price was £3.51/kg ($4.29/kg), 24% higher than the same period of last year. The highest point was £4.57/kg in week 27 compared with the peak of £3.98/kg in week 28 in 2021.

Aug 05  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- Chilean almond crop down 8%
- Indian peanuts attracting strong domestic demand
- Turkish dried fig exports 3% lower for 6 October 2021-30 July 2022 period

Production
 - Chile’s 2022-23 almond crop fell by 8% y/y to 8,020 tonnes on 8,046 bearing hectares (+3% y/y), due to the combination of an ‘off-year’ and drought.
- Blue Diamond Almonds noted this week that a tour of California’s Central Valley revealed many almond orchards under significant water stress. While these are generally found along the west side, examples can be found throughout the Valley. In addition, harvesting for many in the Sacramento Valley is complicated this year by the impacts of the bloom-time freeze. The pace of harvesting will increase over the coming weeks, reaching “full throttle” by the end of August.
- The Indian peanut sowing season is in full swing thanks to favourable weather. Gujarat’s farmers have reached 93% (1.6 million hectares) of the average. Andhra Pradesh has reached 87% (800,000 hectares) and Karnataka reached 135,000 hectares, exceeding by 35% the average.
- On average 89% of US peanuts had reached the pegging stage as of 31 July, up from 87% at the same stage last year. A total of 61% of the crop was rated in good condition, 24% fair and 10% excellent.
- According to trade estimates, Iran’s 2022 Sayer dates crop should reach 120,000 tonnes, up from 110,000 tonnes in 2021.

Demand
- Indian peanut trade sources reported that demand for peanuts is still high due to oilseed shortage once the Russia-Ukraine war started and this is keeping prices at high levels. This strong demand is indicated by the fact that peanut stocks are at a minimum level of around 65,000 tonnes.
- The Vietnam Cashew Association (VCA) has cited the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a major cause for a decline in the country’s H1 2022 exports of the nut and its $600 million downward adjustment to its annual export target (see Trade below).
- Domestic consumption of Iranian Sayer dates is expected to reach 65,000 tonnes, leaving an exportable volume of 57,000 tonnes (120,000 tonnes crop plus an estimated 2021 crop carry-over of 2,000 tonnes minus 65,000 tonnes).

Trade
- Chilean almond exports rose by 25% y/y to 470 tonnes this May, bringing seasonal shipments (February-May) to 1,228 tonnes, 25% more y/y. The main seasonal importers were Argentina and Ecuador which accounted for 53% and 15%, respectively.
- Turkey’s dried fig exports reached 461 tonnes in the week ending on 30 July 2022, 18% more y/y, bringing seasonal sales (6 October-30 July 2022) to 62,117 tonnes valued at $232.7 million, 3% less in volume and 1% more in value y/y. The main importers were the US, France and Germany, taking 17%, 12% and 11%, respectively,
- The VCA has lowered its annual export target to $3.2 billion from the original figure of $3.8 billion, noting that the country’s cashew exports in the first half of 2022 fell by 9.2% against the same period last year.

Price
- Indian peanut prices remain high despite a forecast bumper crop due to strong internal demand for oil crushing, as noted earlier.
- Iranian Sayer date farmers hope to be able to negotiate a better economic situation in the region, which would help keep prices stable.
- Turkish dried fig prices on a fob basis in the week ending on 30 July 2022 were:
- Whole dried figs, $4,222/tonne, 2% less m/m and 3% more y/y
- Cut dried figs, $3,892/tonne, 38% less m/m and 32% more y/y

Aug 05  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- 39% growth in Brazilian sesame crop
- 20% fall in Indian coriander exports
- Shellac prices at records due to recovery in demand with carry-over stocks at lows

Production
- Brazil’s 2021-22 sesame crop reached 100,000 tonnes, 39% more year-on-year, thanks to the increase in the average yield. The planted area rose by 4.5% y/y to 150,000 hectares, despite a fall in Mato Grosso (Centre), the main origin with 60% of the volume, as North-East states have developed 32,300 hectares after not recording any in the previous season.
- The Spanish garlic industry projects a crop of around 220,000 tonnes, 20% less year-on-year, due to low temperatures between March-April and heavy spring rains.
- Heatwaves are threatening the Spanish saffron plantations, forcing growers to update their layouts and techniques and heralding a minimum crop of around 350 kg, mirroring the previous season.
- US honeybee colonies for operations with five or more colonies closed at 2.88 million on 1 January 2021, a 1% fall y/y. Colonies lost for operations reached a record of 331,780 in Q1 2022, 12% of the total. The colonies affected by varroa mites reached a peak of 50.7% in Q2 2021. Meanwhile, varroa mites impacted 33.7% and 45.2% of colonies in Q1 and Q2 2021, respectively.

Demand
- The leading aroma supplier Symrise AG (Germany) projects a strong demand for essential oils in the EU and the US in H2 despite inflation, lifting its 2022 revenue forecast.
- Recovery in shellac consumption when carry-over stocks are at minimums is fuelling prices at record highs.

Trade
- India’s exports fell by 20% y/y in volume to 18,900 tonnes but grew by 6% in value to $30.4 million in January-May 2022. The main importers of whole coriander were Malaysia, the UAE and Nepal, which took 38%, 14% and 10%, respectively.

Prices
- The Indian coriander spot prices averaged INR12,050/quintal ($151.8/quintal) at Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 1 August 2022, unchanged month-on-month.

Aug 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Yesterday's trading saw another very mixed day in cocoa. Opening with a downtrend in early morning trade, where the support level of GBP 1740 vs. Dec22 was tested several times, afternoon trade followed with a change in direction following the BoE announcement that it will raised its key interest rate by 0.5 points. As the BoE hiked its key rate by 0.5%, negative comments followed outlining its risk for the economy and initilly causing a negative impact on the GBP.

- For Ldn cocoa, the market was supported by: + in the key interest rate and - GBP currency. Daily closing price against Dec22: 1780 GBP (+28 or 1.60%).

- The chocolate industry successfully took advantage of yesterdays downward movement to successfully extend their cover in Ldn and NY. New York trading followed the same pattern, but with a stronger upward momentum in the afternoon as the release of the NY Open Interest at + 7771 lots, initiated a partial covering of short positions, giving the US market a greater boost. Closing price for the day Dec22 USD 2388 (+52 = +2.23%)

Aug 04  - Wilmar posts record net profits for 1H22 with 55.1% y-o-y jump (AgriCensus)

- Singapore-based Wilmar International announced a 55.1% increase in net profits on the year for the first six months of 2022, with record net profit earnings of $ 1.165 billion on the back of improved performance across all key business units. Revenue for the first half of 2022 period grew by 22% against last year to $36.13 billion, with core net profit increasing by 58% to $1.155 billion. The firm revenue was also supported by improved sales volumes in the Food Products and Feed and Industrial Products segments, particularly in Oilseeds and Grains.

- The company’s Oilseeds and Grains segment saw a 6% y-o-y increase in sales volume in the first half of 2022, though the overall Feed and Industrial Products segment experienced a 5% drop. This was mainly attributed to lower sales of tropical oils and sugar during the period, which fell by 9% and 15% respectively.
“Results of the tropical oils business…was satisfactory, given the challenging operating conditions amidst frequent changes in palm oil related government policies during the period,” the company said.

- Its Plantation and Sugar Milling segment fared better, with revenue from its oil palm plantation and sugar milling units rising by 70% and 5% on the year to $1.73 billion and $448.8 million respectively, following firm prices in both commodities. In addition, fresh fruit bunch production rose by 3% to 2.13 million mt in the first half of 2022, with the improvement mostly seen from Indonesia due to better weather and crop profile.

- Sales in its Food Products segment also grew by 4% to 13.8 million mt, with firmer demand for consumer products, particularly in China due to renewed lockdowns that occured in Q2 2022. Looking ahead, Wilmar was optimistic that performance for the rest of the year will be satisfactory.
“The recent corrections in commodity prices will hopefully restore some of the demand destroyed by high prices and improve margins in the downstream business. At the same time, whilst palm oil prices have fallen from their peak in Q2 2022, they remain higher than the pre-Covid period, thus mitigating the effects on oil palm plantation performance,” Kuok Khoon Hong, Chairman and CEO of Wilmar said.

Aug 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The previous day's upward movement was followed by a prompt reaction yesterday. The Dec 22 LDN found good support, now for the third time this week, at GBP 1750, which also marked yesterday's low. Closing weak at GBP -29 at GBP 1752, the increased open interest this week continues to suggest fresh speculative shorts, as well as isolated price hedges from the origin.

- The origin  seems to be comfortably sold (at least according to official news), the industry continues to hold good price coverage (+10 months). Who will "twitch" first and which bandwagon will the specs / funds jump on? The structure is still clearly discounted at the front and flat in the long term. The end of Sep 22 in 6 weeks could be decisive....

Aug 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After testing the lows at £1750 on the previous two trading days, prices in London recovered yesterday. Within the first hour, Dec 22 traded GBP 40 higher. However, hedges against original cover brought sufficient pressure to end the rally. By the end of the day, however, London was still up by double digits in almost all positions, with Dec 22 up GBP 14 to close at GBP 1781. Volume was not particularly impressive at 21k lots, but a slight increase in open interest could be related to price hedging by local exporters as well as short selling.

- The USD has been under the influence of Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan for a few days. Already yesterday, it slowly strengthened against the GBP and EUR, and could strengthen further against the backdrop of China's sanctions against Taiwan.

Aug 02  - Turkey announces official price for hazelnuts in the 2022-23 season (IHSmarkit)

- President announced an official price of TRY54/kg

- The price for hazelnuts purchased by the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) will be at TRY54/kg ($3/kg) for oily hazelnuts, including field-based fertiliser and diesel, up from TRY26.5/kg in the previous season, the Turkish president Recep Tayyit Erdogan announced during the opening of the season in Ordu.
- Industry sources estimate that the price for Levants may range between TRY50-50.5/kg, according to local media.
- Growers and processors lobbied to lift prices sharply due to inflation.

The TMO has not released the statement with official prices yet.

Aug 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- A firm British pound put markets under slight pressure throughout the day. The Dec 22 struggled to break Friday's lows (GBP 1750), and scattered industry price hedges provided support. Yesterday's generally weakening commodity sector also failed to put much pressure on the cocoa market. The Dec 22 ended the day GBP +7 at GBP 1767, while the Sep / Dec 22 spread traded at a new low of GBP -59 yesterday (closing GBP -55/-57).

- With the latest news from the origin regarding the adjustment of the differentials, stock cocoa should continue to be the "cheapest" cocoa and (theoretically) strengthen. The market does not yet seem to agree on how and whether to deal with such news at all.

Aug 02  - Gradual increase in Indian coriander futures prices (IHSmarkit)

- 3% increase in futures prices for deliveries from August-November
- 20% fall in exports

- The Indian coriander spot price averaged INR12,050/quintal ($151.8/quintal) at Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 1 August 2022, unchanged month-on-month.

- Coriander is projected at 811,000 tonnes, cutting the previous estimate by 10,000 tonnes and 10% less y/y. Indian farmers have reduced bearing planted area and investment in fertilisers after suffering low prices for several years. However, the global industry may experience a turning point with the Russian shortage due to international sanctions, once the Russia-Ukraine war has started.

- Indian exports fell by 20% y/y in volume to 18,900 tonnes but grew by 6% in value to $30.4 million in January-May 2022, according to customs data.

- The main importers of whole coriander were Malaysia, the UAE and Nepal, which took 38%, 14% and 10%, respectively.

- The updated daily futures market price on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) was:

    Deliveries in July 2022 closed at INR12,090/quintal on 20 July, 9% more than on 21 June
    INR11,808/quintal for deliveries in August 2022 on 29 July, 3% more than on 30 June
    INR11,902/quintal for deliveries in September 2022 on 29 July, 3% more
    INR11,996/quintal for deliveries in October 2022 on 29 July, 3% more
    INR12,060/quintal for deliveries in November 2022 on 29 July, 3% more

Aug 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After the back and forth of the previous days, it was unsurprising that the market just couldn't decide which way to go on Friday. Dec 22 started the day slightly weaker due to currency movements and traded at lows of GBP 1750. From the 2pm opening in NY, news from the origin dominated the market.

- The CCC & CMC announced that from August the clearly negative origin differential would be converted into a premium for Ghana and (first level) for IVC. The market took this cautiously and firmed only slightly. This news came just a few days after an unofficial report that the CCC had fully marketed the coming main crop.

- At the end of the week, the Dec 22 close was GBP +3 at GBP 1760. Commitment of Traders as of 26.07 shows a reduction in Managed Money Shorts of 6,431 lots and 2,504 new longs. Net -32,003 lots.

Aug 01 - Vietnam cashew prices declined further in July (IHSmarkit)

- Economic uncertainty is a dampening influence on prices
- July trading activity was quite favourable however

- Vietnam cashew prices fell by an additional $0.10 per pound for WW320s last month despite predictions that they would stabilise on the basis that the market was thought to have already bottomed out. Ho Chi Minh City-based supplier Golden Bridge observed that this further moderate dip in prices was mainly due to global negative news on the state of the economy etc. Vietnamese banks also announced a 1% increase in the interest rates. However, volumes of confirmed cashew business last month were quite good.
“In the last week of July we observed that more buyers came back and they started asking for September and October shipments and low prices are receiving good demand,” the firm added.

- Meanwhile, the Vietnam Cashew Association (VCA) has lowered its annual export target to $3.2 billion from the original figure of $3.8 billion, noting that the country’s cashew exports in the first half of 2022 fell by 9.2% against the same period last year. Tran Van Hiep, vice chairman of the VCA, cited the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a major cause for the falling exports and downward adjustment of $600 million. Russia was the 14th largest importer of Vietnamese cashews and the conflict had the country cut off from the System for Transfer of Financial Messages.
Another cause is the mounting inflation in the US and EU. Higher inflation leads to higher prices for essential items, leaving consumers with no choice but to cut back on non-essential items, such as cashew nuts. The demand for Vietnamese cashew fell accordingly.
”China is sticking to its zero-Covid policy, holding back the importation of the Vietnamese nuts,” Van Hiep added.

- Vu Thai Son, chairman of the Long Sơn JSC and chairman of the Bình Phuoc Province’s Cashew Association, revealed that many importers stockpiled cashew in 2021 for fear that the pandemic would not be over soon. The stockpiling led to high stock of cashew this year and dragged down the import of the nuts from abroad. Weak demand is expected to continue in the short-term as the nuts are not an essential food. Son was concerned that mounting freight rates and raw input prices are adding to exporters’ woes, driving them into a dire situation.
”It is impossible for cashew producers to run profitably since cashew prices are lower than production costs. Many small factories in Bình Phuoc Province have ceased operation to cut losses, whereas big ones run at low capacity,” he said.

- Tran Huru Hau, deputy secretary general of the VCA, remarked that many batches of raw cashew imported from Africa to Vietnam were kept in storage for too long, their quality deteriorated and they became unfit for production. For this reason, some batches of processed cashew, waiting in store for export, had preservatives and anti-termite agents added to remain in good condition for a longer time. Unfortunately, this has made these batches exceed chemical residue thresholds. They were later suspended and returned to Vietnam by trade partners. Hau general urged trade authorities to keep firms up-to-date with the latest food-safety standards in foreign markets to avoid future returns. He also called on the Ministry of Industry and Trade to help firms gain entry into various trade promotion programmes, whereby they could gather useful information about potential customers, consumption habits and market risks.

Jul 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- A lot has happened this week but actually nothing at all...

The week started with an opening at GBP 1748, yesterday Dec 22 traded, with a low of GBP 1754, just GBP 6 off the opening price. Close Dec 22 at GPB 1757.

- Parliament in Ghana yesterday approved a US$1.3 billion loan to finance the next crop.

Jul 28  - Fall in Indian turmeric futures prices steepen (IHSmarkit)

- Spot prices stagnant
- 6% growth in exports
- Futures prices fell by 2% m/m for deliveries from August-November

- The Indian spot fob unpolished turmeric price averaged INR7,551.60 ($94.6) per quintal at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, South Central) on 27 July, stagnant month-on-month.
- Harvesting finished in May. The planted area has increased by 19% y/y to 306,000 hectares and the crop did that by 17% y/y to 1.33 million tonnes, according to the Spices Board of India (SBI).
- The country’s global sales reached 67,640 tonnes, 6% more year-on-year, worth $101.4 million, in January-May 2022, 17% more y/y in value. The main importers were Bangladesh, Morocco and the UAE, taking 15%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of the volume.

The updated daily futures market prices on NCDEX were:

 

Jul 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- As seen so often lately, the market lacked will or momentum to continue the rally or just a "direction" yesterday. Accordingly, the Dec 22 corrected to lows of GBP 1774 to end the day, on the weak side, with a loss of GBP 25 at GBP 1786. So back to the old and familiar range. The fall in open interest suggests that the latest rise was entirely due to covering against the short position.

- As expected, the FED raised the key interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.25%, this did not cause any major swings in the commodity markets.

- The CCC announced that the 22/23 main crop is now fully marketed at 1.52 million mt. It was also announced that the negative country differential would soon be made "positive". How and when was left open. According to estimates, the CCC will adjust the farmgate price of the next main crop from CFA 825 to CFA 850 - 900.

Jul 28  - Brazil sugar production higher than expected early in July
Mills in Brazil's centre-south (CS) region produced 2.97 million tonnes of sugar in the first half of July, said a report by industry group Unica on Wednesday, 0.12% less than in the same period a year earlier but more than the market was expecting. The mills also crushed more cane than analysts projected in a survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights, processing 46.34 million tonnes in the period, 0.48% more than last year. In the survey, sugar output was seen at 2.84 million tonnes and crush at 44.8 million tonnes.

Jul 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Initiated on Monday with a gain of 2.18% and followed yesterday by a further +1.27% gain, London cocoa broke out of its since mid-May intact downtrend channel, to close the day above at GBP 1811. The upside price move in NY and Ldn were held reasonably in check between +1.1% and +1.27%, respectively, on the day as overbought conditions and origin hedges limited any further upside move.

- If prices continue to rise this would place more short positions out of the money and give the market grounds for a possible further upward push.

- The focus for today, Wednesday the 27th, is the outcome of the FED's FOMC meeting. Investors are set for a 75 basis point rate hike, anything less should mean a big move for the dollar.

Jul 26 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- If the market was trapped in a GBP 1745 - 1753 range until midday, life came into the markets just in time for the NY open. The Dec 22 broke through all the long term moving averages (GBP 1763/200 days; GBP 1770/10 days; GBP 1787/50&100 days) on its way up to yesterday's highs of GBP 1790. With little resistance to speak of, the Dec 22 ended the day at GBP +39 at GBP 1788. Thus, in one afternoon, the correction of the last few days has lapsed and we are back at the upper end of the downtrend channel, a sustained break out of which should bring fresh impulses.

- Volume was more than OK with just under 26k lots in London and 62k lots in NY.

- Little news from the fundamental side. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as of 24.07 were 2.013 mt vs. 2.098 mt from the previous year (-4.1%).

Jul 26  - Vietnam’s imports of raw cashew nuts more than 30% behind in H1 2022

- Downward pressure on prices
- Supply and demand appear to be in balance for now

- Vietnam’s imports of raw cashew nuts (RCNs) this June were 24.3% down from those of the same month a year ago at 234,189 tonnes, bringing the first half of the year total to 1,201,860 tonnes – a decline of 33.3% from H1 2021.

- Vietnam’s imports of RCNs from Ivory Coast were 1.9% down this June to 86,768 tonnes and its January-June 2022 imports from this origin were 25.9% behind y/y to 198,951 tonnes.

- RCN purchases from Cambodia fell 42.9% this June to 38,042 tonnes and by 38.7% in H1 2022 to 612,042 tonnes.

- Vietnam’s RCN imports from other markets were 29% down last month at 109,379 tonnes and 27% lower in H1 2022 at 390,508 tonnes. Ho Chi Minh City-based supplier Golden Bridge observed that the cashew market was very quiet last week with limited demand and transactions. “Prices are being pressured to be lowered and indeed small packers had to reduce WW320 to $2.60/lb fob as they need cash flow and to pay back bank’s loans. At these price levels, most packers have to use old crop materials, so it is hard to request high quality,” it explained.

- Dutch broker Global Trading & Agency reported that the cashew nut kernel market is stable. Prices came down a couple of cents in recent weeks due to lack of interest and packers being under pressure to sell stock, it noted.
“It looks now like supply and demand are in balance but for how long this will remain is the big question. As reported before, the price of kernels is not in parity with the RCN prices and processors lost/loose money. A number of them decided to scale down or close doors for the time being for this reason. How big will the impact be of this on supply?” the firm added.

- Global Trading remarked that during the summer EU and US buyers are taking some time off for a well deserved break and they will return to their offices in the second half of August.
“When they will return and season preparation starts (i.e. sales for Thanksgiving and Christmas) some more demand might show up as high inflation numbers will continue. Most probably, consumers will spend some more time at home again, using/buying/snacking nuts, instead of spending it on holidays and going out for dinner,” it suggested.

Jul 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The previous day's weak close created weak momentum on Friday morning and prices corrected further south. Dec 22 traded to lows of GBP 1748 and continued to head towards the lows of the previous downward movement around GBP 1735. Closing GBP -13 at GBP 1749. Q2 22 Asian grinding figures show an increase of 3.64% vs. Q2 21, the highest tonnage on record. Globally, Q2 grinding is now 5.96% higher than last year. As of 19.07, Managed Money liquidated a total of 7,003 lots, almost the same number of new shorts and liquidation of longs and holds a speculative short position of 40,939 lots.

Jul 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The previous day's tentative rise was, not surprisingly, short-lived. The opening immediately sent negative signals and the Dec 22 lost GBP 34 over the rest of the day to close weak at GBP -28 at GBP 1762, close to yesterday's lows of GBP 1758. Now back to the familiar range. With the Sep / Dec 22 spread at discount (GBP -47), shorts continue to feel no pressure to liquidate their position significantly, rolling continues to flush money into pockets.

- In the after-hours, the North American grind figures were published. These were 6.29% lower than Q2 2021 with tonnage of 115,899mt. Expectations were generally weaker and this coupled with only 15 companies reporting (down from 16 in 2021 and 17 before), may be rated a "satisfactory".

Jul 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Right at the open, the Dec 22 broke upwards out of the range (GBP 1780/1730) that has lasted for a good week. The Dec 22 traded in positive territory throughout yesterday's session, then found resistance from light hedging pressure from the origin towards the GBP 1800 level, marking a daily high of GBP 1795. Closing GBP +11 at GBP 1790.

- The upward movement was supported by a slightly weaker British pound, as well as a manageable liquidation of some shorts.

- Otherwise, it was a tedious and hot day across Europe, where certainly the ice cream shops had an enjoyable trading day and their fun. We joined their trading too... chocolate ice cream, what else?

Jul 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With a volatile start to  trading before noon, Ldn prices started the day down GBP 15 in the early morning, only to change direction as the closing of short positions pushed prices up GBP 30. The day ended with a closing price for the Ldn December position with a GBP +14 at GBP 1778.

- In NY at USD +16. With a doubling of the lots traded on the day from Monday 10,000 to Tuesday 22,000, the days trading range also slightly increased to  GBP 34, (GBP 1745/ 1779) = slightly strengthened test of downsides vs. upsides: +1 GBP high, -8 GBP low.  Prices thus continue to move in an intact downward channel, currently in the middle of the moving averages: on the downside: 200-day line at GBP 1763, on the upside 100-day line at GBP 1787 and 50-day line at GBP 1790.

- New directional impulses for the market still remain to be seen.

Jul 19  - Fall in Indian guar gum prices steepens as crude oil price retreats ( IHSmarkit )

- 14% fall in spot prices 
- 19% growth in exports

- India’s guar gum spot price averaged INR9,373/quintal ($117.4/quintal) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 18 July 2022, 7% less than on 20 May when oil prices have started a bearish trend due to concerns about a global recession.
- Indian guar gum exports rose by 16% y/y to 100,770 tonnes, valued at $116.2 million in January-May 2022, 84% more. The US, Germany and Russia accounted for 32%, 14% and 12% (volume), respectively.

- The daily futures market prices on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) were:

    Deliveries in June 2022 closed at INR10,426/quintal on 20 June 2022, 13% less than on 23 May
    INR9,344/quintal for deliveries in July 2022 on 15 July 2022, 11% less
    INR9,344/quintal for deliveries in August 2022 on 15 July, 13% less

Jul 19  - Abundant rain set to boost Ivory Coast main cocoa crop, farmers say
Rains were above average in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa-growing regions last week, conditions that could prompt harvests for the upcoming October-to-March main crop to start early, farmers said on Monday. The world's top cocoa producer is in the midst of a rainy season that runs from April to mid-November, when downpours are generally abundant and heavy.

Jul 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The hot temperatures yesterday made for a quiet start to the week. With just 10,000 lots traded (no 7k lots net), the market consolidated in a GBP 1753 / 1778 range. Closing GBP -1 at GBP 1764.

- Just a mini summer slump? We are at least watching the US$ (slightly weaker today at 1.02 vs EUR), nothing more seems to be driving the market at the moment.

- Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as of 17.07 are at 1.998 mt vs. 2.088 mt (-4.3%) last year.  The cocoa market continues to move in its comfort zone, at least technically we still have an intact downward channel.

- The remaining NCA and Asian grinding figures will follow at the end of the week. From a purely fundamental point of view, we do not currently expect a clear impulse for the market.

Jul 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

-Just in time for the end of the week, the current absurdity in the cocoa market continued. After the significant losses of the previous day, the market corrected and recovered 2/3 of the losses. Dec 22 (new 2 month), traded at peak highs of GBP 1779, closing GBP +32 at GBP 1768.

- The week was turbulent, mainly due to macro influence and a firm US$, giving us a range of around GBP 80. The Sep / Dec 22 spread widened to GBP -55, due to speculative buying interest in Dec 22. Closing price Sep / Dec 22 at GBP -47 and thus in full carry. The further structure is clearly flatter. If the near spread continues to tighten, this should attract speculative longs into the market. Longs into the market.

- Under normal circumstances...but what is "normal" in cocoa at the moment? Commitment of Traders as of 12.07 show a reduction of shorts by 8,352 lots. Managed Money continues to hold a spec. Short position of 34k lots.

Jul 15  - Asia Coffee: Vietnam domestic prices gain

- Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam inched higher this week due to tight supplies at the end of the crop season, a stronger dollar and as stocks started to dwindle in Indonesia, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam’s largest coffee-growing area, sold coffee at 42,400-44,000 dong ($1.82-$1.89) per kg, up from last week’s 42,700-43,700 dong range.
“Domestic prices reached 2016-2017’s level, but considering the higher exchange rate and production cost, gains are not as high as it used to be,” said a trader based in the coffee belt, adding prices could rise further in line with the movement of exchange rate. Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount range of $150-$160 per tonne to the September contract, compared with last week’s $140-$160 discount range. The London ICE September contract settled up $32, or 2%, at $2,049 per tonne on Wednesday.

- Coffee exports from Vietnam are estimated to have increased 21.7% in the first six months of this year from a year earlier, to 1.03 million tonnes, equal to 17.2 million 60 kg bags, official data showed. Meanwhile, exports of Indonesia’s Sumatra robusta coffee beans in May rose 27.26% to 12,047.93 tonnes from a year earlier, revised data from the trade office in the coffee producing province of Lampung showed on Thursday.
- Sumatra robusta’s price for July contract stayed unchanged from last week, at a discount range of $140-$150, one trader said. Another trader quoted $220 discount, up from last week’s $250 discount to the September contract. “Coffee stocks arriving in Bandar Lampung have begun to decrease,” one of the traders said.

Jul 15  - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- Brazil sees coffee harvest one third complete as of 8 July
- Drop in certified arabica stocks accelerates in July
- World coffee exports rise 10% in May

Production
- Brazilian arabica cooperative Cooxupe said that its members harvested 33.3% of the expected crop as of 8 July, up 7.58 percentage points during the past week. This was the slowest progress since 2017/18.
- Vietnam’s robusta coffee production may drop as much as 7% in 2022/23, and arabica output may slide up to 35% year-over-year after bad rains, Do Xuan Hien of the country’s main coffee association Vicofa said during an industry event.

Demand
- Stocks of ICE certified arabica beans fell by a massive 206,375 60-kg bags to 769,446 in the three weeks to 12 July, the lowest level in 22 years. Stocks in Europe dropped by 217,560 bags to 713,347, while inventories in the US rose by 11,185 bags to 56,099. Beans from Brazil make up 49% of the total and Honduras accounts for 40%. Meanwhile, tenderable robusta stocks held in ICE Futures Europe nominated warehouses rose by 222 ten-tonne lots to 10,690 (around 1.782 million 60-kg bags) in the 19 days to 11 July.

Trade
- ICO exports totaled 10.803 million 60-kg bags of coffee in May 2022, up 10.0% from 9.822 million in the same month last year. This brought total exports in the first eight months of 2021/22 to 88.506 million bags, up 1.3% from 87.342 million in the same period a year ago.
- Brazil’s green coffee exports in June 2022 reached 2.793 million 60-kg bags, 0.6% more than a year ago and also slightly up from the previous month, exporters association Cecafe said.

Price
- Arabica coffee futures sank below $2 per lb and hit a 9-month low on Thursday (July 14), as bearish technical signals triggered more selling by funds and exports from Brazil continue to pick up pace. Dealers said technical buy signals have collapsed, while fears are fading that frosts could hit Brazil’s coffee areas and hurt next season’s crop. The benchmark September contract settled down 12.05 cents at 195.30 cents per pound in dealings between 194.95 and 207.30 cents. September robusta settled down $51 at $1,930 per tonne, trading a $1,924-1,986 range. November was down $44 at $1,935.
- Meanwhile, in Vietnam, domestic coffee prices edged up on Thursday from a week earlier on tight domestic supplies. Farmers in the Central Highlands sold at VND44,000-44,500 ($1.88-1.90) per kg, up from a VND41,800-42,300 range a week earlier.

Jul 15  - Market Briefing: Fresh Fruit and Vegetables (IHSmarkit)

- South Africa’s citrus fruit pack should reach 166.8 million cartons
- China’s cherry imports expected to fall by 6% y/y to 300,000 tonnes
-  Vietnam to start pilot passion fruit exports to China in July

Production
- South Africa’s latest citrus fruit pack prediction for this season is for 166.8 million cartons, down from the original estimate of 170.5 million, but still above the 161.6 million packed in 2021. South Africa’s Citrus Growers Association warns of very high stock levels at some cold store facilities in Durban.
- Harvesting of apricots in Turkey’s Malatya province, the main origin, is in full swing with growers expecting to harvest 336,782 tonnes in 2022, according to pre-harvest estimates. Malatya commodity exchange (MTB) estimates that only 33,680 tonnes will end up in the fresh apricot market.
- China is due to harvest 650,000 tonnes of cherries in the marketing year 2022/23 up 8% y/y. A drought-induced contraction in volumes from Shandong (20-30%), the largest cherry producing area, should be offset by gains in other provinces.

Demand
- China’s cherry imports are projected to decline by 6% y/y to 300,000 tonnes in marketing year 2022-23, as demand will be tempered by prices. Increased shipping costs, port congestion and strict inspection are hampering trade.
- Strong demand for Polish apples helped the country move 161,000 tonnes of apples in May, resulting in a stock of 205,000 tonnes as of 1 June, down 13.5% y/y.

Trade
- New EU regulations on cold treatment for false codling moth pest could see up to ZAR654 million ($38.5 million) of South African citrus destroyed. The potential damage estimate is based on the risk that 3.2 million cartons of South African citrus fruit currently headed to the EU could be destroyed by authorities.
- China’s usually limited imports of peaches and nectarines are projected to rise by 30% y/y to 43,000 tonnes, mainly because of a bumper nectarine harvest in Chile. Chinese exports should soar by 20% to 55,000 tonnes following the resumption of purchases from Russia.
- Vietnam is on the verge of opening the Chinese market for passion fruit this month, which will make passion fruit the tenth Vietnamese fruit commodity permitted for exports to that market.

Price
- Reduced cherry supplies in China’s Shandong coupled with higher production costs for fertilizers (+30% y/y) and labour (+20% y/y), have caused prices to increase across between 17-30%, depending on the origin region and fruit variety.

Jul 15  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- 9% fall y/y in the Indian cumin seed production
- Recovery in Mexican sales of high-quality vanilla in the US and the EU
- 21% growth in Indian sesame spot prices

Production
- India’s 2021-22 cumin seed crop is expected to plummet to around 725,000 tonnes (-9% less y/y), thereby pushing up prices, according to trading sources. Farmers cut planted hectares after prices hit rock-bottom in the previous season.
- The Indian summer sesame production has fallen by 25% y/y to 132,000 tonnes due to heatwaves.
- The Australian government has allowed beekeepers to work through their hives, resuming the honey extraction and pollination services in New South Wales, the main Australian agricultural and honey origin.

Demand
- The hospitality industry recovery after the Covid-19 lockdowns has helped increase sales of high-quality vanilla and truffle. The Mexican Vanilla Committee has reported that sales of vanilla with the Papantla Designation of Origin (Puebla and Veracruz, West) has reached its average volume of 20 tonnes in the US and the EU at a price of $969/kg in long-term contracts. Meanwhile, the Spanish truffle processor Laumont is set to build a new processing plant to cover the rising demand for black truffles in Central Europe.

Trade
- India’s cumin seed exports reached 60,460 tonnes valued at $118.0 million in January-April 2022, 40% less y/y in volume and in value. Bangladesh and Afghanistan were the main importers, accounting for 26% and 8%, respectively.
- Ethiopia’s sesame seed exports reached 60,000 tonnes, worth $101.4 million, 40% less y/y in volume and 33% less in value, in H1 2022. The main importers were Israel, the UAE and Singapore, accounting for 49%, 18% and 9%, respectively.

Prices
- India’s cumin seed spot prices averaged INR22,325 ($281.3) per quintal at the Jodhpur market on 11 July 2022, 9% more than on 20 June, due to a recovery in demand and fall in the production.
- India’s sesame seed spot prices averaged INR13,000/quintal ($163.7/quintal) at the Unjha wholesale market on 12 July 2022, 21% more than on 13 June.

Jul 15  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- 11% fall in the Californian almond expected due to drought and frosts
- Californian walnut exports up 15% y/y in June
- Indian fob peanut prices stabilised from $1,350-1,380/tonne

Production
- California’s 2022 crop is currently estimated at 2.6 billion (kernel) pounds, 11% less y/y, as most orchards have been damaged by drought and frosts this spring. This means a 7% fall from its previous forecast released in May.
- World pistachio production in 2022-23 is projected 5% higher y/y at 1.15 million tonnes, as Turkey’s is expected to grow by 26% y/y to 325,000 tonnes. This is owed to the combination of an ‘on-year’ and rising planted area, offsetting the falls in the US and Iran. US production is forecast at 470,000 tonnes, 11% less y/y due to severe drought and Iran’s is expected to fall by 15% y/y to 115,000 tonnes, due to frosts this May.
- The US peanut crop is now progressing through the pegging stage and, on average, 63% of the crop is pegging, compared with 61% at this stage last year, with origins such as Georgia (75%) close to completion.

Demand
- German and Turkish importers have lifted purchases of Californian walnuts to replenish their stocks, after slowing imports due to high prices. They have taken advantage of the latest Californian discounts before the new harvest starts between August-September.

Trade
- Californian walnut exports rose by 15% y/y to 47.1 million lbs this June, with purchases led by Turkey and Germany. This brought total seasonal sales (September-June) to 623.7 million lbs, 8% less y/y,
- Australia’s almond exports reached 7,800 kernel weight equivalence (KWE) tonnes in May 2022, 17% less y/y, bringing seasonal shipments to 15,800 tonnes, 5% less y/y, due to weak Chinese and Indian in-shell imports.
- California’s raisin shipments were 16,900 (short) tons this June, 16% less year-on-year, bringing seasonal (August-June) sales to 210,230 tons, 11% less y/y. Japan and Canada were the main importers, accounting for 29% and 13%, respectively.

Price
- Trading sources reported that Indian peanut prices have stabilised between June-July, listing the following quotations:

    Bold 40/50: $1,380/tonne
    Bold 50/60: $1,360/tonne
    Java 50/60: $1,375/tonne
    Java 80/90: $1,350/tonne

Jul 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- A repeat of the previous day's scenario seemed to play out again yesterday. After Ldn opened positive and consequently traded up to GBP +28 in the morning, buying interest stagnated and the market continued its downward trajectory at the start of the official New York trading day.

- The Dollars strength (with an initial brief USD/EUR trading below parity) continued to weigh on the entire commodity sector. Cocoa ended  the day at GBP 1684 (-35 GBP; -2.1%) and in New York at USD 2247 (-56 USD -2.49%).

- At midday yesterday, the Ldn July cocoa position went out with a closing price at GBP 1688 and remaining open interest of 2.471 lots. Tender distribution will thus follow for the delivery of just under 25,000 mt.  Volume in the cocoa sector has increased significantly in recent days with almost 80,000 contracts changing hands yesterday.

- Given the bearish price movement of the last 3 days and the suspected build-up of further net short positions, we are slowly moving further into unknown valuation territory of the speculative positions. Position (keyword: record short position).

Jul 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- In anticipation of upward momentum for the day on the back of yesterday's ECA and Ivorian grinding figures, cocoa started the day up GBP 12 in London to then stall with no further upward moves on the day. With a lack of buying interest from the industry and day traders, the market began to slump in the afternoon, closing at GBP 1719 (-35 GBP; -2%) in Ldn and USD 2303 (-51 USD -2.16%) in New York.

- This may have been triggered by a report published by Reuters with comments from Hersheys that total US retail chocolate sales have fallen by 2 to 3 % in recent months as prices have risen by "high single digits to low double digits". Adding, "We will see chocolate become more price sensitive overall."

- Similar to Europe, US IRI data shows that "private label" chocolate, which is a small part of the overall market in the US, grew by 8% in the last six months. Further milling figures from the USA (NCA) as well as Asia (CAA) will follow at the end of this week and next week.

Jul 13  - Indian sesame price up amid short supply (IHSmarkit)

- 25% fall in the Indian summer production
- 21% increase in spot price
- 17% growth in futures prices for deliveries from July-August

- India’s new sesame seed (whitish) spot price averaged INR13,000/quintal ($163.7/quintal) at the Unjha wholesale market (Gujarat, North East) on 12 July 2022, 21% more than on 13 June.

- The summer sesame production has fallen by 25% y/y to 132,000 tonnes due to heatwaves. Currently, the Indian industry needs around 20,000 tonnes to cover the domestic and international demand monthly, according to European trading sources. This means there may be a 30,000 tonnes-gap up the next harvest is coming, pushing up prices for all the origins, particularly the Africans.

- Indian exports were 70,630 tonnes, worth $131.4 million, in January-April 2022, 20% less y/y in volume and 5% less in value. The main importers were South Korea, US and Indonesia, which took 17%, 7% and 6% of the volume, respectively.

- Imports reached 23,866 tonnes in January-April 2022, 66% more y/y. The main suppliers were Sudan and Brazil, which accounted for 45% and 12%, respectively.

The daily futures market prices on NCDEX were:

Jul 13  - Californian walnut exports up 15% y/y in June (IHSmarkit)

- 8% fall in seasonal sales
- Germany accounted for 29% of kernel exports

- Californian walnut exports rose by 15% y/y to 47.1 million lbs this June, with purchases led by Turkey and Germany. This brought total seasonal sales (September-June) to 623.7 million lbs, 8% less y/y, according to the Californian Walnut Board (CWB).. In-shell exports reached 8.7 million lbs, up from 2.1 million lbs in May 2021. The main importers were Turkey and the UAE.

- Turkey imported 4.8 million lbs, up from 264,000 lbs in June 2021; the UAE imports reached 1.2 million lbs, after not recoding any purchases in June 2021.

Shelled sales
- Shelled exports rose by 31% y/y to 22.9 million lbs in June. Germany and Japan were the main importers. Germany imported 6.6 million lbs this June, up from 3.1 million lbs in June 2021. Japan fell by 7% y/y to 3.2 million lbs.

Analysis
- German and Turkish importers have been waiting for discounts to replenish stocks, raising imports of Californian walnuts before the harvest between August-September, as most traders forecast in Q2.

Jul 13  - Californian almond crop forecast downgraded for 2022 (IHSmarkit)

- 11% fall in 2022 crop expected
- 12% drop in average yield

- California’s 2022 crop is currently estimated at 2.6 billion (kernel) pounds, 11% less y/y, as most orchards have been damaged by drought and frosts this spring. According to California’s 2022 Almond Objective Measurement Report, developed by the US Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), this means a 7% fall from its previous forecast released in May.

- The average yield for 2022 is projected at 4,082 lbs per tree, 12% less y/y. The average kernel weight is estimated at 1.47 grams, 1% less y/y. The Nonpareil average nut set, the most common variety, is also expected to fall by 12% y/y to 3,966 lbs/tree. The forecast for the average nut set per tree is 4,082, 12% down from 2021.

- The Nonpareil average nut set of 3,966 lbs is also 12% lower than last year. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.47 grams, up less than 1%from the 2021 average weight. The Nonpareil average kernel weight was 1.55 grams, up slightly from last year.
“Almond growers are putting what resources they can afford this year into producing their crop, and their efforts show. Although there was a drop from last year, the forecast reflects the efforts of growers to meet global demand and ensure a steady supply of high-quality California almonds,” the chief officer of the Almond Board of California, Richard Waycott, said.

- NASS conducts the annual Subjective Forecast, Objective Report and Acreage Report. Of the crop estimates, the 2022 California Almond Objective Report is considered the more accurate and is based on actual almond counts using a statistically rigorous methodology.

Jul 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Trading within a moderate range of GBP 28 for the day, it was the previous day's momentum and a weaker GBP that led to an initial move in Ldn cocoa. The levels held until the start of New York trading, where there was downward momentum not only for cocoa but also for most other commodity indices. Cocoa closed slightly down vs. Sept22 at GBP 1754 (GBP -6). NY close USD 2354 (USD -19).

- Other commodity movements on the day: Aug22 crude oil WTI -7.9%; Nymex nat gas -4.09% Matif wheat -3.05%; arabica coffee -3.7%.

- The news of the morning is the Q2 ECA and German Grind figures published today.  For ECA with 364,081 mt, an increase of 2.03% year-on-year and thus the largest Q2 grinds published for the region.

- Germany held a share of 94,498 mt, 3.69% higher than last year and thus the highest value since 2011. With previously also positive grind expectations, these figures are most likely already priced into the futures market, but nevertheless provide a supportive signal for the market. 

Jul 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The outcome of Friday's Cote d'Ivoire-Ghana Cocoa Initiative and the build-up of new large spec short positions in Ldn and NY, led to a clear bullish price movement in the morning.

- Starting + GBP20, reinforced by NY premarket trade, Ldn cocoa consequently traded at GBP +40 before noon. Market closed the day at GBP 1760 (+44). NY USD2373 (+ 55). Cocoa thus posted a daily gain of 2.56% in Ldn, returning directly to the top of its still intact downward trend channel and its longer-term moving average cluster, from which the market had retreated only three days earlier.

- To highlight is the agreement reached on Friday between the Cote d'Ivoire-Ghana Cocoa Initiative and the industry: The Economic Pact for Sustainable Cocoa, in which all parties will work together to ensure appropriate pricing that incorporates both LID and country quality premiums. The objective remains a $2600 target floor price to ensure fair prices and increased incomes for farmers.

Jul 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Quite abruptly, the upward movement that started at the beginning of the week came to an end on Friday. Without any significant resistance / support from the industry, the Sep 22 LDN fell back towards the GBP 1700 support levels. The Sep 22 traded in a GBP 1758 / 1713 range and ended the day weak at GBP -33 at GBP 1716. Last week's move was almost a mirror image of the positioning ultimately seen in the major funds / specs.

- Commitment of Traders saw a significant increase in the Managed Money short position by 28,150 lots to now 39,280 lots short as of 05/07. In the last reporting period, the market corrected "only" by GBP 60, an indication that these shorts were gladly taken up by the industry. Since the end of the reporting period, the market has given us a rise of GBP 70 and a correction of GBP 50.

- Industry participants and the Cote d'Ivoire-Ghana Cocoa Initiative met in Accra on Friday. The industry further reiterated its commitment to the LID and the $2600 target floor price. Further insights will certainly be read / heard in the days to come.

Jul 11  - Cocoa buyers to subsidise Ivory Coast, Ghana's cocoa premium
Major cocoa buyers have agreed to pay a premium and back a price floor on cocoa sold by Ivory Coast and Ghana as part of an agreement reached on Friday to combat poverty among farmers. Cocoa industry players will back a fixed "living income differential" (LID) of $400 a tonne on all cocoa contracts sold by Ivory Coast or Ghana, two top global cocoa producers.

Jul 08  - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- Vietnam’s coffee exports rise 7.3% in June
- Colombian coffee production drops 9.6% in June 2022
- Robusta coffee hits 10½-month low at $1,939 per tonne

Production

- Colombian coffee production in June 2022 was 951,000 60-kg bags, down 9.6% from 1.052 million in the same month last year due to adverse weather conditions, according to the National Federation of Coffee Growers (Fedecafe). This brought total production in the first nine months of 2021/22 (October/September) to 8.956 million bags, down 11.0% from 10.061 million in the same period last year. Exports continued to recover and rose 5.5% to 939,000 60-kg bags in June 2022 from 890,000 in June 2021. This brought total shipments in 2021/22 to 9.157 million bags, down 2.4% from 9.384 million in the same period last season.

Demand
- US coffee roasters are paying the highest prices in more than a decade for green coffee in domestic storage, as reduced imports from producing countries have hit supplies, along with surging transportation and labor costs. For example, fine arabicas from Guatemala are being purchased at about 67 cents over futures, the highest ever. As a comparison, they were at 47 cents over futures a year ago.

Trade
- Vietnam’s coffee exports in June were 137,403 tonnes (2.290 million 60-kg bags), down 3.5% from 142,329 tonnes (2.372 million bags) in May but up from 127,999 (2.133 million) in the same month last year, customs data show. This brought total exports in the first nine months of 2021/22 (October/September) to 1.324 million tonnes (22.067 million bags), up from 1.158 million (19.307 million) in the same period last year.
- Brazilian green coffee exports rose to 180,871 tonnes (3.015 million 60-kg bags) in June 2022, up 23% from 174,297 tonnes (2.905 million bags) in the same month last year, data from the Trade Ministry show.

Price
- World coffee futures posted modest losses on June 7, but the most-active September robusta contract hit a 10½-month low of $1,939 per tonne amid pressure from significant robusta exports from top producer Vietnam and an ample harvest in Brazil. The benchmark robusta contract for September delivery ended down $11 at $1,944 per tonne, in dealings between $1,939 and $1,971. The intraday low was the market's lowest level since the end of August. The November contract shed $9 to $1,947, and the back months eased between $5 and $8. Trading volume increased to 15,642 lots from 10,514 in the previous session.

Jul 08  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- Slight fall in the Indian spice production 
- 15% fall in McCormick’s gross profit
- 14% increase in Czech blue poppyseed prices 

Production
- India’s 2021-22 spice production is expected to reach 10.8 million tonnes on 4.3 million hectares, 1% less year-on-year in volume and stagnant in area, due to falling chilli, coriander and ginger outputs mainly, according to the Indian government in its initial estimate. The chilli production is expected to fall by 9% y/y to 1.8 million tonnes due to extended pests after heavy rains damaged orchards between 2021-2022. Coriander is projected at 811,000 tonnes on 640,000 hectares, 9% less y/y in volume and 3% less in hectarage. Indian farmers have cut the bearing planted area and investment in fertilisers after suffering low prices for several years. However, the global industry may experience a turning point with the Russian shortage due to international sanctions once the Russia-Ukraine war started. Cumin is projected at 725,000 tonnes (-9% y/y) on 1.03 million hectares (-5% y/y), with farmers switching to oilseeds due to rising prices between Q1-Q2. 
- On the other hand, India’s garlic and turmeric crops are expected to grow due to a slight increase in the planted area. Garlic is projected at 3.2 million tonnes, 10,000 tonnes up from the previous season, on 393,000 hectares, 1,000 hectares more. Turmeric is projected at 1.17 million tonnes (+4% y/y) on 306,000 hectares (+4% y/y). Finally, pepper production is expected to be stagnant at around 70,000 tonnes, following the latest industry updates.

Demand
- The US spice processor McCormick has reported that global inflation has started to hit spice consumption. Its gross profit fell by 15% y/y to $523 million in Q2 FY2022 (December-November). The consumer segment was the driver of the fall, particularly in Europe and Asia-Pacific. 

Trade
- ndia’s exports fell by 23% y/y in volume to 15,100 tonnes but grew by 17% in value to $16.7 million in January-April 2022. The main importers of whole coriander were Malaysia, the UAE and Nepal, which took 35%, 14% and 10%, respectively.

Prices
- The Indian coriander spot price averaged INR11,954/quintal ($151.4/quintal) at Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 4 July 2022, 1% more than on 6 June.
- Czech blue poppyseed prices are in a bullish trend due to the fall in the planted area as farmers are switching to cereals and oilseeds once the Russia-Ukraine war started. Poppyseed growers are negotiating a farmgate price of around €2.8-3.0/kg ($2.86-3.06/kg), 14% more y/y.

Jul 08  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- Olam has launched a sustainable initiative on 50,000 acres of almond orchards in the US and Australia
- 37% fall in US pecan exports
- 62% growth in Turkish dried apricot prices

Production
- Iran’s 2021-22 pistachio crop totalled 135,000 tonnes (-44% y/y) with carry-over stocks at a minimum level of 5,000 tonnes, bringing the total supply to 140,000 tonnes.
- The Singaporean food company Olam Food Ingredients (ofi) has developed sustainability targets for its 50,000-acre almond plantations and farming practices in the US and Australia.
- The initiative is called Almond Trail and has the following goals:


Demand
- The European demand for nuts, particularly almonds, has recovered pre-Covid levels, as the results of Spanish processors such as Dcoop or Grefusa reveal. Dcoop’s revenues grow by 12% y/y to €1.02 billion. Grefusa’s revenues rose by 6% y/y to €136 million ($136 million) in 2021.

Trade
- Global sales of US pecans were 4.19 million in-shell basis pounds this May, 50% less y/y, bringing seasonal shipments (September-May) to 62.4 million lbs, 37% less y/y. Canada, Germany and the UK were the main importers of kernels, with 376,350 lbs, 327,870 lbs and 253,740 lbs, respectively. China was the only importer with 222,620 lbs this May. Iran’s 2021-22 (October-September) pistachio exports are projected at 120,000 tonnes. Iran has exported 79,579 tonnes of pistachios from October 2021-June 2022, 54% less y/y and 26% less than in October 2019-June 2020. Open mouth in-shells accounted for 75% of the total.
- Brazil is still exporting peanuts to Russia despite the international sanctions and the trade agreement with China, as Chinese importers want to purchase with high discounts.

Price
- Weekly fob prices in the week ending on 2 July were:

Jul 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The resignation of the British Prime Minister yesterday led to a significant ad hoc strengthening of the British Pound vs. the EUR and the US$. The political uncertainty in the UK should now (hopefully soon) come to an end.

- The firm local currency was apparently enough to provide resistance to the cocoa market yesterday. The Sep 22 traded in a GBP 1746 / 1771 range, ending up GBP -11 at GBP 1749.

- All this while the general commodity sector rallied yesterday.

- Technically, resistance is likely to start at GBP 1772 (100 day moving average).

- ECA grinding figures will be released on 13.07. NCA will follow on 21.07.

Jul 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After an almost unchanged opening, there was a huge bang on the cocoa market yesterday. The Sep 22, mainly influenced by profit taking and unwinding of recent speculative and now "out of the money" shorts, rallied strongly to trade at highs of GBP 1765 (except for a brief pause to catch breath around midday).

- Yesterday's trading ended in a range of GBP 1720 / 1765 and a firm close of GBP 1760 / GBP +35. Any news was almost ignored by our small market, as most other commodities were in red yesterday.

- Further influence from the firm dollar vs. the EUR, as well as the British pound, is more than likely. Industry coverage remains comfortable (see yesterday's report) and hardly anyone is panicking (at least not because of yesterday's move). The markets are now slightly overbought. We see further resistance at GBP 1770 / 1800.

Jul 07  - Suedzucker Q1 profit jumps, expects higher earnings for current year
Europe's largest sugar producer Suedzucker on Thursday posted a rise of about 230% in quarterly earnings and confirmed increased profit forecasts for its new fiscal year despite the impact of the war in Ukraine. Suedzucker said operating profits in the first quarter of its new 2022/23 year starting on March 1 rose to some 163 million euros ($166.23 million) from 49 million euros in last year's first quarter.

Jul 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After several failed attempts, the Sep 22 LDN "finally" broke through the ominous GBP 1700 support and traded down to lows of GBP 1693. Not surprisingly, increased buying interest from the industry started there. By the afternoon, this led to a sharp correction, oversold markets and further industry interest sent the Sep 22 to highs of GBP 1735. A close below GBP 1700 and thus below the 7 month trend line would be much more meaningful.

- With a price cover of just over 10 months (as of end-June), the industry has enough time to ride out any further fluctuations. The dominant factor in NY was the US$, which traded at a 20-year (!) high against the EUR.

- All other commodities were weak (especially crude oil -8%). Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as of 03.07 were 1.995 mt vs. 2.094 mt (-.4.7%). 

Jul 05 - Iranian seasonal pistachio shipments estimated at 120,000 tonnes (IHSmarkit)

- 4% fall in exports
- 2021-22 carry-over stocks projected at 15,000 tonnes

- Iran’s 2021-22 (October-September) pistachio exports are projected at 120,000 tonnes. Iran has exported 79,579 tonnes of pistachios from October 2021-June 2022, 54% less y/y and 26% less than in October 2019-June 2020. Open mouth in-shells accounted for three quarters of the total, according to Tehran-based Green Diamond Tree in its latest market update.
- Green Diamond projects that 15,000 additional tonnes will be exported from July-September, before the new crop is harvested in October. This means around 15,000 tonnes of carry-over stocks.
- The 2021 crop totalled 135,000 tonnes (-44% y/y) with carry-over stocks at a minimum level of 5,000 tonnes, bringing the total supply to 140,000 tonnes. Seasonal sales totalled 110,000 tonnes. Domestic consumption took 27% of the total shipments.  

Jul 05  - Indian coriander prices stabilised (IHSmarkit)

- 1% increase in spot price
- 23% fall in exports

- The Indian coriander spot price averaged INR11,954/quintal ($151.4/quintal) at Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 4 July 2022, 1% more than on 6 June.
- Indian exports fell by 23% y/y in volume to 15,100 tonnes but grew by 17% in value to $16.7 million in January-April 2022, according to customs data.
- The main importers of whole coriander were Malaysia, the UAE and Nepal, which took 35%, 14% and 10%, respectively, of the total volume.
- The updated daily futures market price on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) was:

    Deliveries in June 2022 closed at INR10,918/quintal on 20 Jun, 4% less than on 23 May
    INR11,346/quintal for deliveries in July 2022 on 1 July, INR30 more than on 2 June
    INR11,456/quintal for deliveries in August 2022 on 1 July, INR12 more
    INR11,566/quintal for deliveries in September 2022 on 1 July, INR6 less
    INR11,676/quintal for deliveries in October 2022 on 1 July, INR24 less

Jul 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With a very low trading volume of merely net 6372 lots, London traded in a moderate range of GBP 17 vs. September22, with missing NY trade on the day. An early push to 1700, basis 2nd position led to a new 20-week low for London, followed by a quick reversal, as renewed industry buying swept in. The strong GBP 1700 support level remains intact for now.

- The dominant factor in the current market continues to be NY where GBP/USD FX movement has steered the downtrend, through a continuous build-up of new short positions (partially added since Wednesday last week and thus not yet reflected in the latest Commitment of Traders report). After yesterday's closed trading in NY, NY is likely to reestablish its lead role and determine the trading direction again today.  

Jul 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Since the beginning of March this year, the market / 2 month continues to struggle to break the GBP 1700 level. The industry showed up sporadically at the end of the week with price hedges in the market and the Sep 22 found good support at GBP 1704, the low for the day. - The continued firm US$ pulled NY further down, the next technical support (US$ 2300) was breached but a close above (US$ 2314) suggests the industry, on both sides of the pond, can live well with current levels.

- London Sep 22 ended the day almost unchanged at GBP +2 at GBP 1715.

- Commitment of Traders as of 28.06 show a reduction in speculative long and short positions. Long, as well as short position. Net both markets now stand at a long position of 40,480 lots, while specs / funds continue to hold a short position of 11,130 lots.

- London flies solo today, New York remains closed for Independence Day.

Jul 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- A firm US$ sent a signal right at the start of the day. Sep 22 in NY promptly broke through US$2350 support and dragged the London cocoa market down with it. LDN Sep 22 traded down to daily lows of GBP 1709, levels at which the industry increasingly showed up with price hedges in the market and provided support. So back to the almost usual comfort zone for buyers...Sep 22 ended the day at GBP -9 at GBP 1713.

- New York gave up US$ 26 to close at US$ 2340. So a major bang at the end of the month or quarter failed to materialise. July 22 options went off the board yesterday with a close of GBP 1702.

Jun 30  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- 30% increase in the Chilean walnut crop
- Recovery in the global demand for macadamias once the Covid-19 lockdowns have finished
- 2% growth in Turkish dried fig exports

Production
- Chile’s walnut industry has confirmed a record crop of 170,000 tonnes, 30% more y/y, thanks to favourable weather and expansion of the planted area. Around 7,000 tonnes of tonnes of Chilean walnuts were affected by rains during the harvest. The affected volume has steam defects, forcing growers to sell them with discounts. Extra light and light walnuts account for 93% of the crop.
- The US peanut crop is now progressing through the pegging stage and, on average, 34% of the crop is pegging, compared with 32% at this stage last year. USDA’s 27 June crop update also showed that 54% of peanuts are rated in good condition, 34% fair and 5% excellent. However, a number of key states need more rain.

Demand
- The global demand for macadamias is growing once the generalised Covid-19 lockdowns have finished, particularly in the EU and China, as their imports data reveal. However, the latest Covid-19 lockdowns in China may hit this rising trend in H2.

Trade
- Turkey’s dried fig exports reached 600 tonnes in the week ending on 25 June 2022, 7% more y/y, bringing seasonal sales (6 October-25 June 2021) to 59,520 tonnes valued at $223.7 million, 2% less y/y in volume and 2% more in value. The main importers were the US, France and Germany, taking 18%, 12% and 11%, respectively.
- Vietnam’s seasonal (January-May 2022) imports of raw cashew nuts declined by 35.2% y/y to 967,671 tonnes. The main importers were Ivory Coast and Cambodia. Ivorian shipments fell by 37.7% to 112,183 tonnes from January-May 2022. Cambodian sales dropped by 38% to 574,360 tonnes.
- Australian macadamia exports rose by 15% y/y to around 12,000 tonnes from April 2021-March 2022 thanks to robust demand in China, whose imports rose by 122% y/y.

Price
- Weekly fob prices for Turkish dried figs in the week ending on 25 June 2022 were:
    Whole dried figs, $4,222/tonne, 7% less m/m and 12% less y/y
    Cut dried figs, $3,892/tonne, 16% more m/m and 32% more y/y

Jun 30  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- US imports of honey reach peak in 2021
- India maintains global demand for its turmeric in January-April 2022
- Bulgaria’s rose oil industry is increasing prices

Production
- Bulgaria’s rose oil industry has low production this year due to a fall in planted acreage and a heatwave. The extreme heat has cut the average yield by 15% and processors have needed 4 tonnes of rose petal to produce 1 kg of oil.
- Long-term severe drought and water salinity has led to a shift in saffron area in Iran, prompting the expansion of Iranian saffron orchards in northern provinces such as Razavi Khorasan, bordering Turkmenistan, according to several Iranian saffron farming associations. As a result, Razavi Khorasan has become the main origin with 90,000 hectares, followed followed by South Khorasan (North East), the oldest growing area, with 17,000 hectares. The Iranian industry forecasts that its relocation will continue over the next years with new projects in Razavi Khorasan and North Khorasan as average yield is falling due to water scarcity and the gradual loss of technical farming skills.

Demand
- US honey imports and prices reached record levels in 2021 due to rising demand for honey as a sweetener.
- Global demand for Indian turmeric in the first four months of this year was consistent with the same period in 2021 (see Trade below).

Trade
- India’s turmeric exports reached 50,590 tonnes, stagnant year-on-year, worth $79.3 million, in January-April 2022, 19% more y/y in value. The main importers were Bangladesh, Morocco and the UAE, taking 14%, 12% and 9%, respectively.
- US imports of honey in 2021 reached around 490 million pounds, 14% more year-on-year. Imports accounted for 74% of the total supply, up from 72% in 2020 and 27% in 1991. US imports of honey have been growing 7.5% annually on average from 1991-2021. In 2021, the main suppliers of honey to the US were India, Vietnam, Argentina and Brazil, which collectively accounted for 86% of US imports. Ukraine was the fifth-largest supplier and its exports may halt in 2022 due to the Russian aggression.

Price
- The Indian spot fob polished turmeric price averaged INR7,624 ($97.48) per quintal at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, South Central) on 27 June, 3% less than on 30 May.
- Bulgaria’s rose oil industry is raising prices due to the combination of a low production, and high production costs and a disappointing crop, particularly after Russia started to restrict oil and natural gas exports. The domestic industry estimates that production costs have grown by 40% year-on-year to €8,400/kg ($7,234/kg) in 2022.
- The average price paid to US beekeepers in 2021 was $2.54/lb, 21% more y/y, surpassing the record of $2.21/lb in 2018.

Jun 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- What began with an initial upward move in Ldn was promptly followed by a reversal of trading direction for the day through pre-market trading in NY. This action coincided with renewed strength in the dollar and weakness in the pound. And led, with no new significant news in the market further into play for the arbitrage trader.

- Trading Jul 22 / Sep 22 back up to GBP 230- 240, which the last few weeks has consistently served as a switch level to consequently trade the arb back down to 190GBP. Ldn Sep 22 ended the day at GBP -16 at GBP 1722, Sep NY at USD -26 at USD 2366. In Ldn, July options are moving off the board today, so more trading activity can be expected around noon. July is currently trading at GBP 1708. Next major calls GBP 1750 (2165 lots). Puts GBP 1675 (1850 lots) followed by GBP 1650 (3332 lots).

Jun 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With a GBP 22 range, yesterday's trading day also brought no new impulses. The market followed its familiar pattern of a firm morning and a weaker end to the day. The Sep 22 ended the day at GBP -3 at GBP 1738, levels at which both sides of fundamental market participants seem comfortable. The calm before the storm? Liquidity will traditionally decline (further) in July / August. Despite the good summer weather, at least half an eye should be kept on the markets...

Jun 28  - Vietnam raw cashew nut imports sharply lower (IHSmarkit)

- Decline reflects state of world economy
- Packers are selling at a loss

- Vietnam’s imports of raw cashew nuts (RCNs) fell 35.5% this May to 190,263 tonnes.
- The seasonal (January-May 2022) RCN imports declined 35.2% to 967,671 tonnes.
- Vietnam’s RCN imports from Ivory Coast were 44.4% down last month at 46,271 tonnes while its January-May 2022 purchases from this origin plunged 37.7% to 112,183 tonnes.
- Volumes acquired from Cambodia this May fell 40% to 67,982 tonnes and the seasonal amount was 38.4% down at 574,360 tonnes.
- Vietnam’s RCN imports from other markets were 22.7% lower this May at 76,010 tonnes and 26.26% behind over the first five months of 2022 at 281,128 tonnes.
- Ho Chi Minh City-based supplier Golden Bridge commented that in view of the global economic recession the reduction in Vietnam’s RCN imports was expected. Despite the tough market now, the RCN sellers still have not accepted reducing prices, making it impossible to trade against kernel prices now.
- The firm observed there is still pressure on lower prices “but obviously all packers are selling at losses”. Prices below $2.70 per pound fob were only in circulation among small packers who are being pressured on cash flow and the loans from banks.

Jun 28  - Fall in turmeric prices steepens (IHSmarkit)

- 3% fall in spot and futures prices
- 7% fall in the 2021-22 production

- The Indian spot fob polished turmeric price averaged INR7,624 ($97.48) per quintal at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, South Central) on 27 June, 3% less than on 30 May.
- Harvesting has started in January 2022 and will finish in March. The planted area has increased by 20-25% y/y to 353,000-368,000 hectares. Trading sources estimate that the yield has plummeted by 30% y/y as heavy rains have hit plantations in some regions, offsetting area expansion. The 2021-22 turmeric crop is forecast at 1,101,000 tonnes, 7% less year-on-year, according to the Spices Board of India (SBI).
- The country’s global sales reached 50,590 tonnes, stagnant year-on-year, worth $79.3 million, in January-April 2022, 19% y/y in value. The main importers were Bangladesh, Morocco and the UAE, taking 14%, 12% and 9%, respectively.

The updated daily futures market prices on NCDEX were, for deliveries in June at INR7,620/quintal on 20 June, 8% less than on 23 May

Jun 28  - Pistachio sector shows mixed trading pattern (IHSmarkit)

- Supply running very short from Iran
- Currency helps keep Iranian prices high

- European pistachio traders confirm that demand for Iranian material is slow while US pistachios in contrast are generating keen buying. This can be seen by the shipment figures from each of these origins for the season so far. The volumes shipped from Iran are down but those from the US are comfortably above those of a year ago.
- US pistachio sales rose by 41% y/y to 30,912 (short) tons this May, bringing seasonal (September-May) volume to 280,361 tons (+12% y/y). Domestic sales totalled 8,648 tons this May, 13% more than in May 2021. Exports rose by 65% y/y to 22,770 tons.
- Iran has exported 76,338 tonnes of pistachios from October 2021-May 2022, 53% less y/y.

- Ashkan Mossafaian of Rotterdam importer Pistachio Investment told S&P Global Commodity Insights: “The pistachio business in general is not booming this year. We have been busy coping with the post-Covid situation, trying to get the business running.” Mossafaian observed there is a lot of stability in the US this season for pistachios whereas the opposite applies to Iran where there is an overload of instability. “There are so many things you have to consider if you want to export pistachios from Iran. A lot of people have lost a lot of money this season,” he added.

- Italy and Spain used to be key markets for Iranian pistachios but the prospects are difficult this year with a number of companies in each of these destinations in financial trouble. “You need to wait a long time to get your money back if you do the sales,” Mossafaian said. “Getting the money back to Iran is also a big issue and still one of the biggest challenges for a lot of companies.” The Russia-Ukraine conflict brings its own set of problems arising from the fact that Russsia is usually a key export market for Iranian pistachios. With the value of the Russian rouble plunging, Russian customers had a lot of problem paying back the Iranian exporters. Similar issues applied with Ukraine.
“Money is not being recycled because a lot of it is stuck in some of these markets,” Mossafaian noted.

Jun 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- For the third day in a row, the cocoa market followed the same pattern. A firm day and then price fixing by the origin is followed by a weak afternoon with successive price hedging by the industry. All on thin volume but this alone is enough to put a lid on the market or form a floor.

- The Sep 22 traded in a GBP 1734 / 1777 range, closing GBP -19 at GBP 1741. The near July / Sep 22 bobs peacefully around GBP -8, while the Sep / Dec 22 marked a new 6 week high at GBP -31. Barely 2 weeks ago, it was trading at a discount of GBP -51.

- Ivory Coast arrivals are at 1.97 mt / -4.9% as of 26.06. As the end of the month / quarter approaches, we should (theoretically) expect increased activity from specs / funds.

Jun 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The last full trading week of June ended without further findings and unchanged. The initial firming found resistance at Thursday's highs and, as on the previous day, was leveled off by price-safeguarding against origin covers and new shorts. As a result, the market closed unchanged in the nearbys (Sep 22 GBP 1760; +2) and slightly weaker further forward (- 2 to -5). Technically, we are in the corridor in London between the 200-day moving average (GBP 1758) at the lower end and resistance at the 50- and 100-day moving averages (GBP 1778 and GBP 1780, respectively) at the higher end.

- The Committment of Traders Reports reflect the general tenor quite well: Managed Money reduced -5.9k in London (-0.9 Net Short), while New York Specs reduced their net short position by 5.7 (-16k Net Short). The position over all both markets are now trading 36k lots net long. We will see what the week brings.

Jun 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Further indecision was reflected in the typical sideways movement on yesterday's trading day, although the volume was quite decent (28k lots). Essentially, the trading of the front spreads contributed to this. Initial short covering triggered systems-based buy orders, the resulting support tested the 100-day average at GBP 1779 in Sep 22. Towards the afternoon, the origin spoke up with fresh selling and triggered good selling pressure through price hedges, which eventually ended the day unchanged - Sep22 close GBP 1758 (-1), exactly at the technical margin of the 200-day average.

- A BDU Nigeria passed yesterday's grading, although the front spreads atypically converged rather than diverged throughout the week. Nothing is normal in the cocoa market, except that not everything is normal.

Jun 24  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- Madagascar’s clove crop estimate downgraded by 5,000 tonnes
- The momentum of the essential oil industry has favoured merge between DSM and Firmenich 
- Bullish prices for sesame due to disappointing India’s summer crop

Production
- India’s 2022 summer sesame crop was expected to reach around 150,000-175,000 tonnes, according to the initial projection and most players are downgrading it to 100,000-125,000 tonnes, due to the combination of heatwaves and irrigation restrictions.
- African clove supply is expected to be at a low level, with Madagascar’s crop projected at 15,000-16,000 tonnes, 4,000-5,000 tonnes down from the previous estimate. Meanwhile, Comoros’ production is expected to be 4,000-5,000 tonnes, on average. 
- The temperature peaked at a record of 40ﹾC in the second week of June in Central Spain and the average size of garlic bulbs has fallen by 20% year-on-year, leading to an equal fall in the 2022 production: around 250,000 tonnes in 2022 against 301,000 tonnes in 2021.
- Ecuador’s government is promoting the domestic hemp production and has backed three farming and processing projects with $40 million over the next 10 years. In addition, Thai companies has projected to invest around $700 million over the next five years with the same goal, after the government has authorised to use hemp and CBD in the food industry

Demand
- Demand for pepper is stabilised once the Vietnamese and Indian pepper harvest have concluded as importers have replenished their stocks.
- Demand for essential oils is still growing as multinational processors, such as Treatt or Givaudan, revealed in their robust sales. In addition, the Argentinian citrus grower San Miguel has sold its plantations in South Africa and Peru to focus on citrus oil manufacturing. The Dutch chemical company DSM has merged with the Swiss aroma and essential oil house Firmenich, to take advantage of the momentum for the essential oil industry.

Trade
- Indian sesame exports were 51,060 tonnes, worth $95.7 million, in Q1 2022, 15% less y/y in volume and 28% less in value. The main importers were South Korea, Indonesia and the US, which took 13%, 7% and 6% of the volume, respectively.
- Meanwhile, the South Korean government has announced a tender to purchase 12,000 tonnes of sesame seeds in June, mirroring the volume acquired in the previous official purchase (April 2022). India is a key supplier for South Korea, having been the only origin which covered the previous tender.
- The Bangladesh Bank has ordered the domestic financial institutions to expand a special 4% interest loans to import spices, lentils, oilseeds and maize, following a previous scheme to subsidize food imports. The government aims to reduce import costs to avoid food supply shortage, as domestic foreign exchange value is falling against US dollar, fuelling inflation.
- Argentina’s international honey sales reached 21,006 tonnes, 3% more year-on-year, valued at $73.7 million, 10% more y/y, in January-April 2022.
- The US and Germany were the main importers, accounting for 58% and 23%, respectively, of the volume.
- Brazil’s honey exports fell by 40% year-on-year to 11,706 tonnes and by 33% in value to $44.4 million from January-April 2022.
- The US and Germany were the main importers, taking 71% and 13%, respectively.

Price
Indian fob sesame prices have grown by $100 between the second fortnight of June and May once farmers started to confirm a record-low crop due to the combination of heatwaves and a water shortage. Trading sources quoted the following fob (Mundra) prices:

https://www.commodity3.com/chain/SES0IN/sesameseed-white-index

Jun 24  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- Spanish almond crop set to be 27% down from that of last year
- Frosts reduce Turkish dried apricot output
- World demand for prunes seen as stabilising

Production
- The first round of the 2022 crop Chinese peanut plantings finished in the northern regions early this month. The planted area has been reduced across different producing regions, Shandong being particularly severe with a cut of around 25-30%.
- Spain’s 2022-23 almond production forecast has been downgraded to 61,684 tonnes, 18% less than the previous estimate and 27% lower than the 2021-22 crop, due to April-May frosts.
- Chile’s 2022 almond crop is expected to fall by 8% year-on-year to 8,020 tonnes on 8,046 bearing hectares (+3% y/y), due to the combination of an ‘off-year’ and drought.
- Chile’s 2022-23 hazelnut production is expected to reach 55,000 tonnes, 22% more year-on-year, thanks to planted acreage expansion fuelled by Ferrero’s processing activity.
- April frosts have severely damaged Turkish apricot trees which were blooming, particularly those below 850 metres altitude. As a result, traders expect the 2022 dried apricot production to reach around 80,000 tonnes, similar to that of 2021 and very far from the 90,000 tonnes forecast by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC).
- Chile’s 2022 prune crop reached 90,000 tonnes on 12,451 hectares, 3,000 tonnes more than the latest official forecast, according to the Chilean Prune Association (Chile Prunes). Dehydrators will process around 71,000 tonnes and 19,000 tonnes will be sold in the global fresh market.

Demand
- Chile is steadily building overseas demand for its almonds (see Trade below).
- US pistachios generated increased buying this May and for the season so far.
- Brazil nut demand was strong in Q1 (see Trade below) but has slowed down in Q2 as importers are awaiting lower prices.
- Turkish dried apricot exporters were initially worried about a fall in demand. However, the international demand has not weakened and they are delaying contracts to avoid a supply shortage during the harvest. There will be no carry-over stocks between seasons (so going into the 2022-23 season).
- Global demand for prunes has stabilised at around 200,000 tonnes annually, after suffering a gradual fall, consumers willing to pay a price higher than in the previous seasons, it was explained at the World Nut and Dried Fruit Congress.
- Demand for US raisins has declined slightly this season. However, export volumes picked up this May versus the same month in 2021 (see Trade below).

Trade
- Iran has exported 76,338 tonnes of pistachios from October 2021-May 2022, 53% less y/y and 21% less than in October 2019-May 2020.
- US pistachio sales rose by 41% y/y to 30,912 (short) tons this May, bringing seasonal (September-May) volume to 280,361 tons (+12% y/y).
- Chilean almond exports doubled y/y to 243 tonnes this March, bringing seasonal shipments (February-March) to 518 tonnes, 61% more y/y.
- Bolivia’s Brazil nut exports reached 10,700 tonnes in Q1 2022, 77% more year-on-year. However, Peru, a traditional re-exporter, took 14% of the volume, being ready to start processing.
- Turkish dried apricot exports reached 920 tonnes in the week ending on 4 June 2022, 39% less y/y, bringing seasonal sales (1 August 2021-4 June 2022) to 66,760 tonnes valued at $343.8 million, 5% less y/y in volume and 30% more in value.
- California’s raisin shipments were 18,307 (short) tons this May, 7% less year-on-year, bringing seasonal (August-May) sales to 193,317 tons, 11% less y/y. Domestic sales fell by 16% y/y to 10,477 tons this May. Exports (including Canada) rose by 10% y/y to 6,044 tons, accounting for 33% of the total sales.

Price
- Brazil nut prices from main origin Bolivia have stabilised at $3.5/lb since March, after being listed at $4.25/lb in January, trade sources reported.
- Turkish apricot prices are maintaining peak levels due to consistent demand, inflation and high shipping fares.
- Currency remains a key influence on Turkish hazelnut export prices. The Turkish lira is weak against the US dollar as well as the euro.

Jun 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- As indicated in yesterday's report, the weak Sterling and the New York submission for a calculated firm opening mattered little to the London cocoa market. Shortly after the opening, the Sep 22 traded GBP 17 in the red, and as the day progressed, further selling pressure brought prices well below technical support at the 200-day moving average (GBP 1758) with a daily low of GBP 1744. However, incipient purchase orders then brought a close just above at GBP 1759 base Sep22 (-5).

- Meanwhile, work in the grading room is not getting less. Tomorrow a BDU will go under the knife, another one is said to be already in the pipeline.

- The CCC in Ivory Coast seems to be making the final sales at the current origin differential (GBP -125) before reportedly increasing to GBP-100, each plus LID. On July 8, they will sit down with the neighboring Ghanaian Cocobod to discuss this....

Jun 22  - Madagascar vanilla market looks set for major reform under new regulations (IHSmarkit)

- The development is expected to cut the number of exporters operating in Madagascar
- Tighter controls should clamp down on smuggling of vanilla and other illegal trading practices

- Madagascar is progressing with its new regulations for the vanilla sector which traders are hopeful will result in a more reliable trading environment. Madagascar’s 2021 vanilla crop was estimated at 2,500 tonnes of cured beans of which 2,100-2,200 tonnes is thought to have been shipped already. Emmanuel Nee of French trader Touton suggested that the volumes shipped to date should help give the market coverage until the end of this year and possibly even into Q1 2023. Quality of the 2021 crop was good and average price paid was higher than the minimum price.

- The new crop will be subject to much more stringent controls than any previous vanilla crops in Madagascar. The Madagascar government is keen to “clean up” the supply chain and remove those firms that used to cheat the system – i.e. those that have not paid the right price to the farmers and/or not exported at the minimum price of $250 per kilo.

- Last week, it was decided to relaunch the Conseil National de la Vanille Madagascar (CNV Madagascar) – a group of exporters, middlemen and farmers. This should reinforce the control of the supply chain, mainly in terms of price and duties, Nee suggested. The aim is for the minimum price of green vanilla beans (paid to the farmers) to be fixed at MGA75,000 ($18.24) per kg. Nee said he had seen instances of this price not being honoured in the early stages of the 2022 campaign, but the most important one is that of the Sava crop (on the east coast), the campaign for which officially is under way from 7 July. “The government is insistent that everyone must pay a minimum of MGA75,000 to the farmers,” Nee said.

- The Madagascar government is also instigating a new control to ensure the minimum export price of $250/kg is also paid. At this stage it is not known what form this measure will take. “This may make some movements on the market,” Nee suggested.

- In the meantime, a long-established $4/kg tax to be paid to the CNV has been ignored for years. The Madagascar government is now stating that for 2022 this tax must be paid and including for any quantities exported last year. In addition, the Madagascar government wants to be 100% sure that all exporters requiring an agreement for vanilla beans for the new season are fully conforming with all duties paid, all funds repatriated, and must demonstrate that their business behaviour meets all legal requirements. To date, it is claimed that this has not been the case for as much as 95% of the vanilla exporting firms in Madagascar.

- All the major exporters have been invited to a meeting in Paris in July at the Madagascan embassy.
“The thing that is important this year is that everyone knows the rules of the game before the campaign starts,” Nee remarked. “This was the not the case before: they were giving rules in July, August, September and October and whatever happened in the market in the meantime was not important.”

- Madagascar’s minister of commerce, Edgar Razafindravahy, was said to be particularly aggrieved by what has been happening over the years and has been a key force behind the new measures. It is felt that the minimum export price of $250/kg is too high and it is known that actual physical trades on conventional grade Madagascar vanilla beans have taken place at $150-220/kg.

Demand tailed off
- Nee recalled that demand was good in March and April before slowing down from May onwards. This compared with “huge” demand in April and May 2021. The decline on this occasion supports the view that part of the demand has already been covered by the quantities shipped so far. In addition, it is felt that the downturn is not due to price but more to do with the global economic uncertainty which has dampened buying interest in non-essential foods.

- The 2022 vanilla bean crop in Madagascar is expected to be lower than that of last year at a possible 1,600-1,700 tonnes, due to late flowering which also suggests the cropping of green beans will be a little early this year. This means there will be fewer mature beans so the yields are likely to be less. No one knows how much carry-over Madagascar is likely to have when it starts its 2022 crop but if assuming it will have around 300 tonnes this would give it a 2022 supply of 2,000 tonnes.

Global vanilla demand is usually pegged in the region of 2,500 tonnes but Nee believes the total to be closer to 3,000 tonnes. However, he added the caveat that this would be in “normal times” and it is therefore debatable whether this is applicable at the moment.

Jun 22  - Cloves market subdued ahead of new crop from Comoros (IHSmarkit)

- Madagascar cloves exporters eagerly awaiting reappearance of Indonesian buyers
- Comoros crop expected to be a good one

- The global cloves market is quiet in the run up to the 2022 crop from Comoros, harvesting of which is due to start in the next two weeks. Trade estimates are pegging the Comoros crop to exceed 4,000 tonnes, possibly reaching 5,000 tonnes. Initial price indications are in the range of $7,500-7,600 per tonne fob.
- Meanwhile, the next Madagascar crop in September-October will be a good one but of a lower size than last year at 15,000-16,000 tonnes maximum versus an estimated 20,000 tonnes earlier. Madagascar prices are around $8,500-8,600/tonne fob, making it $1,000/tonne more expensive than Comoros.

- Emmanuel Nee of French trader Touton told S&P Global Commodity Insights: “Most of the exporters in Madagascar are sitting on their stock and waiting for Indonesia to arrive.” India is also absent as a buyer at the moment.
- Gregoire Courme of French trader Aromatum recalled that India purchased a lot of goods in March and April and cannot sell these due to the economic uncertainty. It is rumoured that there is stock held in warehouses in Nhava Sheva port for which payment is awaited. Nhava Sheva is the largest container port in India. Located in Navi Mumbai’s Raigad district, this port on the Arabian Sea is accessed via Thane Creek. Courme explained that two weeks ago he was told that the ex-works price for Madagascar cloves in Nhava Sheva was $7,800-7,900/tonne whereas the buyer had paid more than $8,600. “They are selling with a loss because they have to reimburse the loan to the bank,” he said. “That has put the market in trouble because the stock in Madagascar has been paid at a high price so today it is very difficult to find a price below $8,400 (per tonne) fob.”

- Indonesia is usually a major cloves buyer, particularly for its kretek cigarette manufacturing. Nee suggested it was likely Indonesia purchased two-thirds of Madagascar’s 2021 cloves crop, the balance being shipped to India. In addition, he said he believes Madagascar has at least 2,000-3,000 tonnes left unsold, “but the price is too high”. Indonesia has had a poor crop but has a decent volume of carry-over to help top up its supplies.
- Chinese consumption is also out of the equation for the time being, partly due to the knock on effects of recent lockdowns (now lifted in certain cities such as Shanghai and Beijing) as well as continued lockdowns in other parts of China.
- Russia is a keen buyer of cloves for its pickling industry and has been active again lately. Shipping to this destination has been extremely difficult due to the conflict with Ukraine which meant a number of shipping companies stopped sending cargoes in that direction. New bookings to Russia have started to be accepted again in recent weeks, so the situation is improving.

- It is said that Zanzibar’s crop is not as good as it should be and Indonesia’s crop is particularly poor for the second consecutive year. Courme noted Comoros cloves prices could edge up. Meanwhile, shipping line Maersk has left Comoros, leaving two other main shipping firms still operating there. This suggests freight rates might not fall as much as hoped, because the removal of Maersk reduces the competition for the remaining shippers, Courme said.

Jun 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With New York market back on the square after a long weekend, the big question in the Managed Money corner yesterday was how the market would react to the handsome speculative short position.

- In London, the 2nd month Sep 22 did test 100-day moving average at GBP 1768, but then closed just under (GBP 1764; +11). The July/Sep22 spread narrowed slightly (GBP -11) and is currently not under much pressure despite ongoing gradings (another BDU is due today), whereas the British pound certainly is, in anticipation of today's release of the British Consumer Price Index.

- The expected 40-year high of British inflation at 9.1% for May has been confirmed since this morning. Currently, the GBP continues to weaken against the EUR (0.8617) and is approaching last week's lows. Whether the cocoa market takes note of this is of course speculation. 

Jun 21  - Chilean walnut shipments clearly behind last season (IHSmarkit)

- 30% fall in seasonal sales
- India and Turkey were the main in-shell importers

- Chilean walnut exports fell by 18% year-on-year to 19,778 in-shell equivalent tonnes in May 2022, bringing shipments in the 2022-23 season (21 March-20 March) to 24,226 tonnes, 30% less y/y, according to the Chilean Walnut Association (Chilenut). In-shell exports fell by 21% y/y to 15,400 tonnes this May.

- India and Turkey were the main importers with 4,850 tonnes (+26% y/y) and 3,796 tonnes (-44% y/y), respectively. Shelled exports fell by 4% y/y to 2,036 tonnes.

- Spain and Germany were the main purchasers with 405 tonnes (+20% y/y) and 281 tonnes (-27% y/y).

Jun 21  - Vietnam cashew kernel exports decline 9.2% y/y this May (IHSmarkit)

- Shipments to the US down 18%
- Breakage items drew ‘quite good’ demand last week

- Vietnam cashew kernel exports fell 9.2% y/y last month to 49,933 tonnes. Shipments for the January-May 2022 period fell 7.8% to 206,122 tonnes.

- Ho Chi Minh City-based supplier Golden Bridge observed: “Figures of May indicated a reduction in volumes of kernels exported against the same period last year but still higher than April 2022. This could be explained by contracts signed in April but shipped in May. The reduction could be continued in June as May passed with a downtrend.”

- Vietnam’s cashew kernel exports to the US this May were 18% down at 12,279 tonnes while its shipments to this destination for the first five months of this year dipped by nearly 2% to 55,763 tonnes. Shipments to China fell 22.2% this May to 4,737 tonnes and by 41.8% for the first five months of this year to 13,285 tonnes. Vietnam’s cashew exports to the EU and other destinations were 2.9% lower this May at 32,916 tonnes and 6% down for January-May 2022 at 137,064 tonnes.

- Golden Bridge added that in the last week there was quite high demand for breakage items such as WS, LP, SP, but other grades were nearly unchanged in terms of demand and price.

Jun 21  - China’s new garlic prices for cold storage lower y/y (IHSmarkit)

- New garlic production is estimated at 8.804 million tonnes for 2022
- Speculators for cold storage are active amid fall in storage fees

- China’s new garlic prices for cold storage placement is lower than those in 2021 but higher than 2020, a local source said. New garlic of mixed grade is mostly sold for CNY3.48 ($0.52) per kilo in mid-June 2022, 7% up m/m and 40% down y/y. From early June, China’s new garlic has started to be placed into cold storage in the Shandong Jinxiang region. Speculators are active. An exporter based in Shandong quoted opening fob prices of $870 per tonne for 5.0 cm and $900/tonne for 5.5 cm new mixed grade white, 40% lower than last year. He said that :“We have received less overseas orders this year compared with the same time last year.”

- China’s annual production is ranging between 7.0-8.0 million tonnes. In 2021, national planted area was 441,333 hectares, 6% up y/y; the new garlic crop is estimated at 8.804 million tonnes for 2022, about 10-26% higher than the annual average, according to a Chinese press outlet. Overall, volumes to be placed in cold stores may climb to a new high until September, with a final figure of 4.6 - 5.0 million tonnes anticipated. Meanwhile, vendors and speculators are motivated to place more garlic in the cold storage as the cold storage fees decreased by 6-9% from last year to CNY280-320/tonne. “Right now, the demand for cold storage placement sustain the m/m price increase. The m/m price increase may last until the end of July,” a vendor said.

- On consumption, industry sources agreed that it is hard to predict domestic demand for 2022. The industry is waiting to see how Chinese foodservice is recovering from the pandemic effect, which will impact on garlic movement.

Jun 21  - Fall in Indian guar gum prices steepens (IHSmarkit)

- 14% fall in spot prices 
- 19% growth in exports

- India’s guar gum spot price averaged INR10,100/quintal ($129.5/quintal) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 20 June 2022, 14% less than on 23 May.
- Indian exports rose by 19% y/y to 58,654 tonnes, valued at $116.2 million in Q1 2022, 80% more. The US, Germany and Russia accounted for 33%, 13% and 12% (volume), respectively.
- The daily futures market prices on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) were:
    Deliveries in June 2022 closed at INR10,426/quintal on 17 June 2022, 12% less than on 18 May

Jun 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Without the participation of the New York market, the reaction to the significant change in position or the large expansion of the short position of the New York specs / funds was much milder than expected.

- The Sep 22 LDN was on a consolidation course in joyful anticipation of "big brother" returning home from the long weekend. A tedious GBP 1738/1756 range followed and just the proximity to the next technical resistance (GBP 1758 / 200 day moving average) was enough to dampen the market. Closing GBP +8 at GBP 1753.

- Ivory Coast arrivals as of 19.06 are at 1.943 mt vs. 2.045 mt from last year (-5%).

Jun 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After an anemic week with low participation, both markets recovered from their respective weakness on Friday and rallied sharply, correcting 2.2% (NY +2.4%) on moderate volume of 26k lots and eliminating the previous day's losses without looking back. In London, short covering brought good support immediately after opening. The Sep 22 gained GBP 37 in the process and closed at GBP 1745, still a bit below the technical resistance level of the 200-day moving average (GBP 1759).

- The Commitments of Traders show unsurprisingly a reduction of the net long position by 22k lots as of Tuesday to now 35k lots net long. This is mainly or almost entirely due to new speculative shorts. The net short position of the managed money fraction now amounts to -16k lots net short (London +5 / NY -21).

Jun 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Without any significant resistance, certainly due to the holiday, the London cocoa market corrected further downwards yesterday. The Sep 22 broke through GBP 1720 support quite early in the day, triggering sell orders that sent the Sep 22 down to daily lows of GBP 1705. The end result was a loss of GBP -31 at GBP 1708. Next support is likely to start at GBP 1700 and the long-term trend line just below GBP 1700 (see chart).

- Yesterday, the cocoa market was again increasingly a plaything of the central banks; the announcements of various authorities to further increase the key interest rates also caused problems for our market.

- New York marked an insideday yesterday, the Sep 22 ended the day there unchanged at $2377.

- Purchases in Ghana as of 09.06 were 651,000mt vs. 961,000mt from the previous year (-32.3%). Côte d'Ivoire May 22 grind  was 11% higher than a year ago.

Jun 17  - ICE exchange coffee heads to U.S. from Europe as weather bites supply - sources
Commodity traders are shipping arabica coffee from Europe-based ICE futures exchange warehouses to the United States, five trade sources told Reuters, reflecting the impact of erratic weather on global supply that could raise costs for the popular drink. The bulk of global arabica coffee, the most commonly used variety, is produced in central and south America so shipping it from one major consuming region to another is highly unusual.

Jun 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Yesterday was all about consolidation. The Sep 22 traded in a GBP 1722/1747 range and again found good support towards GBP 1720. The market is (still) struggling to break through this. A break and possible close below this is likely to draw more shorts into the market and force the longs to liquidate. The Sep 22 ended the day unchanged at GBP 1739. Despite the second consecutive sideways move, a mini downtrend is forming with 4 consecutive lower highs.

- Fundamental news was also scarce yesterday. When there is nothing to talk about, people continue to talk about the weather. One source claimed that the coming harvest in Nigeria will be reduced by 10% due to persistent drought. Another source reported good rains in the growing regions. The silly season is now picking up speed...

Jun 16  - Disappointing Indian summer sesame seed crop heralds bullish prices (IHSmarkit)

- 25% fall in the Indian summer production
- 3% fall in spot price
- 2% fall in futures prices for deliveries from June-August

- India’s new sesame seed (whitish) spot price averaged INR10,950/quintal ($140.3/quintal) at the Unjha wholesale market (Gujarat, North East) on 15 June 2022, 3% less than on 18 May. The summer sesame production has fallen by 25% y/y to 132,000 tonnes due to heatwaves. Currently, the Indian industry needs around 20,000 tonnes to cover the domestic and international demand monthly, according to European trading sources. This means there may be a 30,000 tonnes-gap until the arrival of the next crop, pushing up prices for all the origins, particularly the Africans.
- Indian exports were 51,060 tonnes, worth $95.7 million, in Q1 2022, 15% less y/y in volume and 28% less in value. The main importers were South Korea, Indonesia and the US, which took 13%, 7% and 6% of the volume, respectively.
- Imports reached 8,467 tonnes in Q1 2022, 31% less y/y. The main suppliers were Sudan and Nigeria, which accounted for 91% and 4%, respectively.
- The daily futures market prices on NCDEX were for deliveries in May closed at INR11,050/quintal on 20 May, 7% less than on 21 April

Jun 16  - Chinese dried garlic prices rising as demand kicks in (IHSmarkit)

- Speculative activity also evident in China
- Dehydration of fresh garlic is now under way
- Further price increases are expected

- Chinese new crop dried garlic prices emerged in the last week but these have already been indicated as edging up due to speculative activity and talk of possible reduced plantings for the 2023 crop. In addition, there has been renewed demand from European importers looking to cover at least part of their requirements for the coming months. Some of these buyers have taken cover just for the nearby positions while others have chosen to purchase further ahead. In the week ending 10 June, European traders quoted new crop Chinese first grade granules at $2,700 per tonne cfr Europe for June/July shipment. New crop garlic powder was listed at $2,400/tonne cfr Europe.

Drying of fresh garlic spans three months
- Dehydration of material from China’s 2022 fresh garlic crop started this month and will continue through July and August. In September, it should be possible to gauge the extent of China’s dried garlic production this season (2022-23). As usual, the volume will depend to a large extent on how attractive the prices of fresh garlic are at the time and whether these offer the better financial return for producers than selling as dried.
- On Tuesday, Rogier Van der Linden of Rotterdam trader Catz International told S&P Global Commodity Insights that Chinese new crop first grade granules had now risen in price to $2,770/tonne cfr Europe and new crop garlic powder to $2,470/tonne cfr Europe. Van der Linden observed: “The market is increasing a little bit day by day due to speculation in China. Prices are relatively low in comparison to previous years so Chinese speculators see that and they think ‘let’s buy garlic because prices are low at the moment.’ The chances are the price will increase so it is a good investment – safer than houses or stocks, or other investments,” he observed.
- Timo Waardenburg of Dutch trader Lensersan Poortman said he had seen offers on Chinese first grade granules at $2,650/tonne c&f EMP for September shipment.
- Marco Van der Does of Van Der Does Spice Brokers said he had seen Chinese first grade garlic granules quoted at $2,475/tonne c&f EMP; first grade garlic powder at $2,425/tonne c&f EMP; and first grade flakes $2,850/tonne c&f EMP. Each of these was for EU quality and applied to offers both on old crop and new crop material, he explained.
- Van der Does remarked that the fact that prices are edging upwards suggests that stocks might be lower this year and might also indicate that the 2022 fresh garlic crop is smaller than that of last year.  He recalled that prices started moving up again after lockdowns were ended in main cities in China.

Moves to planting wheat instead
- In addition, there are unconfirmed reports that Chinese farmers have switched from garlic to wheat as they see an opportunity to benefit from the loss of supply from Ukraine this year due to the latter’s ongoing conflict with Russia. Waardenburg noted that there are some claims that this year’s fresh garlic crop is relatively small so the upturn in prices reflects this.
“I don’t know if that is true. I heard it is around the same as last year. Others are saying that due to the Russian-Ukrainian war there is a shortage of wheat and some are saying that the Chinese government is encouraging garlic farmers to grow wheat instead of garlic. Normally speaking, the plantings for the 2023 crop will occur in September and October which is the same period when the new wheat crop in China is also being planted. This is all speculation, but some are saying they foresee a smaller crop next year (2023) due to this switch in commodity,” he added.
- Officially, there is no information on the size of China’s 2022 crop of fresh garlic so the debate continues over whether this is in line with last year’s crop volume or smaller or larger.

Favourable quality
- The only feedback has been that the quality of the new crop produce is good and the outlook is positive.
- Van der Linden remarked that this could mean that more gets sold as fresh garlic and there is reduced availability of so-called B grade material for dehydration. In addition, he suggested there is more likelihood of prices continuing to increase than there is for prices to decline.
- Prices for new crop Japanese grade garlic are not available yet as this is a different variety which is harvested later than standard grade. Grade A (Japanese grade) dehydrated flakes old crop (2021) prices were at $4,350/tonne cfr Europe and top grade (Japanese grade) granules old crop $4,450/tonne cfr Europe. Cautious demand. European buyers have moved in to cover, but, as mentioned earlier, to varying extents. Global uncertainty dictates an understandable degree of caution.

- Waardenburg said: “During the last couple of months we have seen prices decrease and we have reached a turning point now. Buyers are also aware of this and they consider it a good moment to cover. Some are covering for the rest of the year and some are only covering nearby.” Waardenburg noted that most important factor is internal demand in China, being the leading global producer and consumer of garlic, at least in fresh form. With lockdowns now lifted in China, normal life is resuming and this means increased demand for fresh garlic there. Hence, this results in rising prices of Chinese fresh garlic which spurs in turn increases in its dried garlic prices.

Jun 16  - Australian almond exports continue at a good pace (IHSmarkit)

- 17% increase in shipments this April
- China accounted for 47% of the volume 

- Australia’s almond exports reached 5,814 kernel weight equivalence (KWE) tonnes in April 2022, 17% more year-on-year, bringing seasonal shipments to 8,692 tonnes, 26% more y/y, according to the Almond Board of Australia (ABA). In-shell exports totalled 3,475 tonnes in April 2022, 10% less y/y. China and India were the only importers, with 2,016 tonnes (+5% y/y) and 1,459 tonnes (-25% y/y), respectively. Shelled international sales rose by 48% y/y to 3,382 tonnes in April 2022. China and Spain were the main importers, purchasing 1,340 tonnes (up from 620 tonnes in April 2021) and 369 tonnes, 21 tonnes less, respectively.

Jun 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After the heavy losses of the previous day, further support came into the markets yesterday. Due to a consistently weak British pound (-1.5% vs. US$ / -1.2% vs. EUR), as well as further industrial activity, no breakout to the downside was achieved. Sep 22 traded to lows of GPB 1726 and ended the day, with no new lows, at GBP 1739 / GBP +9.

- New York is making new lows at $ 2355 but is struggling (due to lack of momentum) to break the lows of Dec 21 (around $ 2330). Despite all this, there is still a gap in NY at $ 2426, which, from a technical point of view, can be closed.

- IRI's Confectionery Monitor reported encouraging figures, with sales of chocolate goods (excl. seasonal) up 2.9% year-on-year from Jan - April 22. Christmas 21 +12.5% and Easter 22 +2%.

Jun 14  - Vietnamese and Indian pepper harvests conclude with demand stabilised

- India’s 2022 crop: 65,000 tonnes
- South Brazil and Malaysia are starting to ship their 2023 productions

- Pepper harvests have finished in Vietnam and India, confirming a sharp fall in the former and a stagnant year-on-year in the latter, according to trading sources.
- Vietnam’s processors are raising their imports of Cambodian pepper to secure supply as the 2022 production has fallen by 15% y/y to 165,000-170,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, India’s production is around 65,000 tonnes.
- South Brazil and Malaysia are starting to ship their 2022 product after they have started their harvests.

- Demand is slightly lower than in Q1 and prices are stabilised as importers have replenished their stocks. The Vietnamese Pepper Association (VPA) reports that domestic orchards are pollinating well, fuelling a high 2023 production estimate. However, the 2022-23 price trend will be clear in Q3, when the VPA is likely to release an accurate crop forecast.

- Vietnamese black pepper faq min 500 g/l was quoted at $4,700/tonne cif and white pepper was listed at $6,900/tonne in the week ending on 9 June, both stagnant y/y, according to IHSmarkit.

Jun 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After 5 only marginally weaker closes (between GBP -4/-6) in a row, the specs / funds in NY probably ran out of patience yesterday. London could not see as quickly as the prices, supported by a firm US$, slid southwards. Fresh / new shorts and long liquidations sent the Sep 22 LDN down to lows of GBP 1721. Thus, the London cocoa market ended its 3-week small (GBP 70) port round trip and has thus returned to the lows of late May. Closing Sep 22 GBP -28 at GBP 1730.

- After a good 2 weeks of absence, the industry again increasingly accompanied the market with price hedges yesterday. The July / Sep 22 spread lost GBP -14 yesterday and is back to levels around GBP -22. The other structure (Sep / Dec & Dec / March) also ran further apart yesterday. The "music" continues to play here in front and is not made fundamentally.

Jun 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With almost no tradable volume until midday, life only slowly came into play in the afternoon. New York was clearly the more active party here, and with sugar and coffee already under pressure, the cocoa market also joined in. In London, lows of GBP 1756 and a close of GBP -4 stood at GBP 1758 / Sep 22, making it the 5th weaker close in a row. By the end of the week, London had lost 2%.

- In New York, at least in chart terms, a clearer downward trend is evident. New York Sep 22 close $ -41 at $ 2432 (change from previous week -3%).

- Commitment of Traders as of 07.06 seem uninteresting only at first glance, as the position increased only slightly by 5,571 lots. However, a look at Managed Money shows a possible rethinking of the Specs / Funds. They liquidated almost 9,000 lots of shorts, whether this will lead to an imminent trend reversal (from short to long) remains to be seen.

Jun 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- There was no real story to tell yesterday either. But our cocoa market sometimes doesn't need a story to remain interesting...A tired / slightly firmer opening was followed relatively quickly by fresh selling pressure, which brought the Sep 22 futures to new 2-week lows of GBP 1745, where speculative buy orders (profit-taking by the shorts?) provided support. A notable highlight yesterday was the July / Sep 22 spread, which narrowed from GBP -20 to GBP -8 on impressive volume of just under 10,000 lots. The weak near spread at the end of the trading day also contributed to the closing price. The Sep 22 ended the day only GBP -4 at GBP 1762, but still marked the 4th weak close in a row.

Jun 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With an industry cover of just under 10 months and a quite comfortable sold origin at the end of May, the big specs / funds traded yesterday almost exclusively with each other again and fundamental market participants were or are still only spectators from the sideline.

- Range Sep 22 1759 / 1775, closing GBP -4 at GBP 1766. Next support should come from the 200-day moving average at GBP 1758, resistance just below GBP 1790, so everything moderately close. We continue to wait for new impulses, perhaps we will have more exciting news to report tomorrow....

Jun 08  - Record prices for Turkish dried apricots (IHSmarkit)

- 30% growth in revenues
- 12% increase in prices for cut dried apricots

- Turkey’s average dried apricot export prices are reaching a record, fuelling revenues. Exports reached 920 tonnes in the week ending on 4 June 2022, 39% less y/y, bringing seasonal sales (1 August 2021-4 June 2022) to 66,760 tonnes valued at $343.8 million, 5% less y/y in volume and 30% more in value, according to Turkey’s Aegean Exporter Association (EIB). Processors are close to selling out carry-over stocks.

- The US, Germany and France were the main importers, accounting for 13%, 8% and 7%, respectively.

- Weekly fob prices in the week ending on 4 June were:

    Whole dried apricots, $5,353/tonne, 10% more m/m and 48% more y/y.
    Cut dried apricots, $5,045/tonne, 12% more m/m and 86% more y/y

Jun 08  - Turkish Grain Board (TMO) announces new selling price for in-shell hazelnuts (IHSmarkit)

- Price is set at TRY44 per kilo
- Buying interest remains limited
- Slight delay on harvesting of new crop

The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has announced its new selling price for in-shell hazelnuts at TRY44 ($2.62) per kilo. Approximately 15,000 tonnes will be offered to the market at this price.
- Dennis Havelaar, junior broker at QFN Trading & Agency, said that this increase of TRY3 (compared with previous months) resulted in an immediate response within the local market, and prices increased. “Export prices increased as well, but with a very strong US dollar (or weak Turkish lira), the prices for export decreased again,” he explained.
- Olivier Telvi of UK trader Ronly Limited, which represents Turkish hazelnut processor Ronly Gida, observed that this announcement appears to have stalled buying interest for the time being as buyers anticipate the continued Turkish lira depreciation to help them bring this new higher price more in line with previous market levels.
- Vittorio Friedmann of UK trader Voicevale remarked that there was no buying interest present in the first place. “There are very limited enquiries on the market. There is not much trading place on the nearby. Industrial users have already taken cover well up to October. People are looking for attractive prices and the prices are not attracting them enough because of weaker European currency – the euro and the pound,” he noted. However, Friedmann agreed with the view on the impacts of currency. “The price is a bit higher than what the market was expecting,” he observed. “On the other side, the Turkish lira keeps weakening so probably the Turkish government is going a bit ahead in its pricing considering that the Turkish lira will continue to weaken.” Friedmann added that the market increased by $10-15 per 100 kilo at the start of this week but because demand is weak those who are making offers are basing their prices on the previous pricing of the TMO rather than the new selling price of the TMO, trying to make a small margin on their previous purchasing price. However, the market is tight with limited liquidity so if there is a sudden burst of activity prices could rise rapidly.

New crop
- The harvest of the new crop is expected to be delayed by about two weeks due to unfavourable weather conditions (cooler than usual).
- Friedmann commented that if Turkish hazelnut growing regions have a warm July then the crop could catch up quickly and the two week delay could be shortened

Currency
- Havelaar observed that the Turkish lira lost some more value against the US dollar and the euro, keeping the Turkish lira at all time lows. “This covers up the price rises in the local market. It remains important to note that a stronger Turkish lira will immediately affect the prices,” he added.
- QFN Trading gave the following price indications for 2021 crop hazelnuts on $ per 100 kilo, delivered Europe (DAP) basis, adding that these can also be offered for the new crop 2022 hazelnuts.

    Roasted meal 0-2mm $570 in 10 kg cartons net/net vacuum
    Roasted diced 2-4mm $615 in 10 kg cartons net/net vacuum
    Roasted diced 5-7mm $625 in 10 kg cartons net/net vacuum
    Roasted diced 8-12mm $635 in 10 kg cartons net/net vacuum
    S.r. blanched 11-13mm <10% skin $655 in 10 kg cartons net/net vacuum
    S.r. blanched 12-14mm <10% skin $655 in 10 kg cartons net/net vacuum
    S.r. blanched 12-14mm <5% skin $655 in 10 kg cartons net/net vacuum
    NHK 11-13mm $570 in 10 kg cartons net/net vacuum
    NHK 13-15mm $570 in 10 kg cartons net/net vacuum

For shipments per container, cfr EMP: deduction $6/100 kg (subject to final destination port).

Surcharge for extra class: $10/100 kg

Jun 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The first trading day after the royal festivities and the long weekend brought no new impulses. Not surprisingly, as the cocoa market has been languishing in no-man's land for months. The meagre volume (21k lots) despite the long weekend speaks for a certain lack of interest and general indecision. The expected weak opening was followed by slight selling pressure. The 2nd month Sep22 lost GBP 20 and marked the lows of the day at GBP 1763 just above the technical support of the 200-day moving average (GBP 1759). Although Sterling gained slightly during the day, reducing the arbitrage by GBP 15, London recovered some of the losses towards the evening, closing GBP 5 down at GBP 1770. In the search for impulses, the absolutely flat structure - with the exception of the front spreads - is no help, as is the absence of fundamental news.

Jun 07  - WPTC revises 2022 global tomato production downwards (IHSmarkit)

- New forecast is nearly 1 million tonnes lower
- Estimate for Italy and Portugal unchanged
- US crop expected at 10.6 million tonnes, but could be lowered

- Tomato global production is estimated at 38.8 million tonnes, according to the latest WPTC report, down from 39.2 million tonnes in 2021. The new forecast is nearly one million tonnes lower than the initial March forecast, and with uncertainty as to whether the current figure will be achieved. Italy’s projection remains at 5.4 million tonnes. About 92% of the expected surfaces have already been planted in northern Italy. Planting is finishing in Spain these days and there are still uncertainties about the total surface. It is expected that the forecast will be reduced from the 2.5 million tonnes current estimate. Planting in Portugal is virtually finished now and the forecast of 1.45 million tonnes is unchanged at this stage. The forecast for Turkey has been upped from 1.95 to 2.1 million tonnes, while the forecast for Ukraine is 200,000 tonnes at the most, down from half a million tonnes.

- On 31 May, the USDA/NASS announced the current California projection at 11.7 million short tons (10.6 million tonnes). Over the last three years the industry has averaged 6.9% below the May projection. Brazil should harvest more than 1.6 million tonnes of tomatoes. Most processors have increased area due to low tomato pulp stocks and expanding demand in the local tomato market. Tomato prices are around $85/tonne.

- China’s planting area is 51,333 ha and the forecast remains 5.8 million tonnes. The price of raw tomato in China is CNY480-500/tonne ($72-75/tonne).

Jun 07  - Gradual fall in Indian coriander prices (IHSmarkit)

- 3% fall in spot price
- 35% fall in exports

- The Indian coriander spot price averaged INR11,869/quintal ($152.6/quintal) at Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 6 June 2022, 3% less than on 9 May. Indian exports fell by 35% y/y in volume to 10,940 tonnes but grow by 17% in value to $16.7 million in Q1 2022, according to customs data. The main importers were Malaysia, the UAE and Nepal, which took 22%, 9% and 8%, respectively, of the total volume.
- The updated daily futures market price on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) was for deliveries in May 2022 closed at INR11,444/quintal on 20 May, 8% less than on 21 April.

Jun 07  - Fall in Iranian pistachio exports steepens (IHSmarkit)

- 53% fall in exports
- Remaining supply: 35,000 tonnes

- Iran has exported 76,338 tonnes of pistachios from October 2021-May 2022, 53% less y/y and 21% less than in October 2019-May 2020. Open mouth in-shells accounted for three quarters of the total, according to Tehran-based Green Diamond Tree in its latest market update. The main importers were China and Russia, accounting for 26% and 20%, respectively. The 2021 crop totalled 135,000 tonnes (-44% y/y) with carry-over stocks at a minimum level of 5,000 tonnes, bringing the total supply to 140,000 tonnes. Seasonal sales totalled 105,000 tonnes. Domestic consumption took 28% of the total shipments.
- This means the remaining 2021-22 supply totals 35,000 tonnes until the next harvest in Q3 2022.

Jun 07  - Russia-Ukraine war impedes trade flows of raisins and walnuts (IHSmarkit)

- Stocks in Europe are low and spot material is costly
- Freight problems persist
- Bullish Philippine banana chip market

- The Russia-Ukraine war inevitably caused quite some disruption in the trade and logistic chains for dried fruit and nuts, with the main impact being on raisins and walnuts, for which supply is virtually no longer possible.

- This was noted by Rotterdam trader Catz International in its latest report on the dried fruit and nut markets. The company added that another issue is the shortage of sunflower oil, which, like raisins and walnuts, used to be a free flowing product. Outside Europe it is not a problem having domestic sunflower oil. “In and around Europe there are other plant based replacements, so this will not jeopardise production of dried fruits,” Catz added.

- A bigger issue is the long lasting disturbance of the shipments caused by the imbalance of the available containers. Freight rates did ease from Asia to Europe, but there is now a rise in rates from South America and South Africa, paired with delayed shipments as shipping companies reschedule to prevent sailing with half empty vessels. As a consequence stocks in Europe are low and spot material often commands a premium price.

- Another phenomenon is the fact in most origins shippers quote only on a fob basis in view of the fluctuating prices. “This makes it difficult for the occasional shippers, as without having contracts and connections with shipping lines, these odd containers shall have to wait at the end of the queue for space on the vessels with consequently serious delays,” Catz observed. The dollar has firmed against the euro, but both currencies have been more or less in balance for the last few weeks.

Apples
- In the last months before the new Chinese crop (September) will be ready for harvesting, the leftovers of the 2021 crop will come from cold stores. With current high energy prices, these became more expensive and as a result the market is firmer. China freight rates eased slightly, but shipping schedules are not reliable, as many containers have to wait for more than one vessel to be taken finally on board. Although it is hard to make any prediction for the coming crop – as usual the Chinese shippers expect a smaller crop – it is probably advisable for buyers to assess their needs until the end of the year.

Apricots
- Turkey’s new crop will be disappointing again, so hoping for better prices will be in vain. Taking into consideration today’s high price levels, because demand is exceeding supply, already about 70,000 tonnes have been exported from Turkey this year. The 2022 Turkish crop is expected to be only some 80,000-85,000 tonnes, of which 30% will be inferior quality. The increasing prices are despite an ongoing weakening of the Turkish lira, whereas European buyers have to cope with the stronger US dollar to convert in euros. If and when the new crop will be available, it is feared the more irregular and expensive shipments will not help to relax the market.

Banana chips
- The market for Philippine banana chips on the spot can only be described as bullish. Due to ‘rolled over’ shipments new arrivals cannot match demand in Europe and are sold before touching ports. Although freight from the Philippines eased – but is still a multiple amount compared with earlier days – prices in euros remain stable due to the shortages and the firmer dollar in the last weeks. In addition, China is opening again after the Covid-restrictions and a revival of the demand from this important market will also trigger prices.

Cranberries
- There are no major changes, with stable to firm pricing and producers booked for the coming months.

Pears/peaches
- There are only some peaches still available from South Africa. Pears are sold and with the 2022-23 not yet fully under way there will definitely be some shortage for this product and hence high prices ahead.

Pineapple/papaya
- The new crop has softened the prices for pineapple, but this discount is fully absorbed by higher productions costs (particularly energy) and also in Europe a firmer dollar.
- Papaya remains short and it is expected that after the summer, the off-season, the situation will exacerbate and it will take until the new crop in November until there is an improvement. Moreover, this will mean for arrival in Europe only in early 2023.

Prunes
- The first Chilean crop 2022 loads are about to arrive, albeit it obviously with some delays due to the mentioned logistic problems. As the market is empty in Europe, it was ‘easy’ for the Chilean shippers to sell at good prices a substantial quantity for the first shipments. “With a good cash position, there is no need to discount at the moment, hence we see a stable trend in Chile,” Catz explained. There is heavy demand on the spot market in Europe due to the shipments not having arrived yet and this is pushing prices up for immediate delivery. With a failed crop in France and a limited crop in California (both 2021 crops) prunes are also set for another year of high prices.

Raisins
- South Africa has a difficult season ahead. Not only is the crop is smaller than projected (75,000 tonnes actual against 86,000 tonnes projected), but also the share of the mainstream products (natural Thompsons and goldens) changed considerably. Thompson increased from 50% to 63% of the total crop, mainly because Thompsons were safer to dry with the high humidity during drying, and goldens decreased from 21% to 13%, being the most risky product to make in view of the longer drying time needed.
- Today goldens are sold out in South Africa, although a ‘last’ lot occasionally is offered at a ‘luxury’ price. Prices for Thompsons remain nevertheless stable, as South Africa is not the biggest player in the world and prices from alternative origin California are still much higher, which is of course a guideline for the South African exporters of course, Catz remarked. The forthcoming Turkish crop is expected to be bigger, although there are still a lot of ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ on this. Prices remain attractive.

Walnuts
- This market is in the doldrums. In Europe there is demand due to logistic delays, whereas in California shippers are trying to raise prices. This has had some success with the high end products, but for darker and industrial product some discounting is needed as a big crop must be moved before the end of the season. The Chilean crop is 10-11% bigger than previous years and with about 170,000 tonnes Chile is becoming a serious player on the world market. Prices are substantially above the Californian level for the high half counts and light material. The “rather unique” hand-cracked and extra light material is still commanding a good premium, but is already well sold to the traditional customers who are prepared to pay for such high quality.

Jun 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After a long weekend of festivities, London faced a theoretically weak opening of GBP -30 yesterday. The Sep 22, coupled with a firmer British pound, indeed opened weak and traded down to yesterday's lows of GBP 1764 during the morning. With most of Europe absent yesterday, only tentative price action towards GBP 1760 for the near term and around GBP 1800 for 2023 provided scattered support. Closing price Sep 22 GBP -22 at GBP 1775.

- Commitment of Traders did little in the last reporting period (as of 31.05.22). There was a mini-increase of 461 lots to 50,701 lots net long. Managed money increased by only 229 lots and continues to hold a short position of 3,752 lots.

Jun 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

 With London closed for the Queens Jubilee, it was only New York trading yesterday. Opening only at US pre trading times and with little volumes traded on the day, New York started on a low, trading down USD 15, picking up to USD +17 at mid trade to then break and closing for the day at USD -31 vs Sep22 at 2510. Days Range USD 49 for a 2559 high, 2510 low = close level. US Cocoa will again trade on its own today as London remains closed for the 2nd day of the UK celebrations.

Jun 03 - Indian mills waiting to export 1.5 mln T sugar after selling 8.5 mln tonnes
India has exported around 8.5 million tonnes of sugar since the current season began on Oct. 1, with exporters likely to contract another 1.5 million tonnes for overseas sales in the next five months, trade and government sources said on Thursday. India, the world's biggest sugar producer and consumer, on May 24 imposed restrictions on exports of the sweetener for the first time in six years by capping exports at 10 million tonnes.

Jun 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- In anticipation of a quiet week so far, with either one or the other market on the right or left side of the Atlantic closed on three out of five days (followed by the bank holiday next Monday), it was proven once again how small volumes can move the market. After a strong opening in Ldn in the morning, leading to the next resistance: 50-day moving average at GBP 1785 being broken, the market shortly lost its momentum, to with the support of technical trading positions continue its momentum and close in the afternoon with a plus of GBP 30 at 1794 (+2%).

- NY is still trading at USD 2548 between the short term moving average indicator of 10 days (USD 2478) and the next resistance point of USD 2570, 50 day moving average. Technically important for further upside.

- In the UK, the long festive weekend starts today (London will be closed today and Friday).

Jun 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With a firm expected opening in New York after the significant short positioning of the funds / specs and a strong start to the week in London, the London market also rose at the beginning. The Sep 22 found resistance at its 100-day moving average at GBP 1780, but then the air was out. A tiring sideways movement followed. Sep 22 close GBP -7 at GBP 1765. New York Sep 22 close $ +33 at $ 2515. With a very long weekend in the UK (London will be closed tomorrow & Friday) and a long Whitsun weekend in Europe, signs continue to point to inertia...

- From experience we know that the cocoa market is always good for another surprise. From the fundamental side, little worth mentioning. The ICCO adjusted its deficit expectation to -174,000, coming from 181,000. so no great / market moving news here either

May 31  - Vietnam cashew prices decline in May (IHSmarkit)

- Prices now settled at these lower levels
- Global uncertainty is a dampening factor
- African cashew nuts also decrease in price

- In contrast with the excitement of April, the Vietnam cashew market stabilised this month. Ho Chi Minh City-based supplier Golden Bridge recalled that prices had risen by $0.20 per pound before stabilising around $2.90 for the WW320 grade and then falling to the new level of around $2.80/lb fob for this category. This price has held in place for the time being.

- Golden Bridge remarked that prices are being adversely impacted by the oil price, inflation, bank interest and the stronger US dollar. Meanwhile, African raw nuts have dropped $10-15/tonne but are still quite high priced so it is possible these prices will drop more in the coming weeks.
“Obviously, the rebounding is over, and prices will be pressured in the coming weeks. In our opinion, prices could retest at supportive levels around $2.75 fob for WW320,” Golden Bridge concluded.

- Dutch broker Global Trading & Agency noted in its May 25 market report that prices of cashew nut kernels are stable.
“Supply should be sufficient while demand remains good. Prices of kernels are not in parity with raw cashew nut (RCN) prices and it is expected that kernel prices will go up in the months ahead while most of the RCN trade is done. It remains our recommendation to be covered until end of 2022/first quarter 2023,” Global Trading added.

May 31 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With US markets closed for Memorial Day, London cocoa traded on its own yesterday. Opening strongly at GBP +30 in the first hour of trading, the 2nd term rapidly broke through the first uptrend line of the 200-day moving average at GBP 1758. After consolidating at this level in the interim, further support, albeit slight, was then found in the afternoon to close at GBP 1772 (+33 = +1.9%). This trading move was largely due to short covering by the larger Managed Money traders in Ldn, following a build up larger short positions in both Ldn and NY.  Partly in Ldn, but most noticeably in NY, where Managed Money built 13.6k short positions while slightly reducing its long positions by 0.6k (thus there is a suggestion that NY may follow the Ldn trend with slight short covering at the open today).  

- Arrivals in Ivory Coast continue to lag year-on-year. Currently at 1.898Mln mt (-5%). 

May 31  - Iranian pistachios stocks at a minimum level before the next season (IHSmarkit)

- 52% fall in exports
- Remaining supply: 40,000 tonnes

- Iran has exported 73,905 tonnes of pistachios from October 2021-April 2022, 52% less y/y and 16% less than in October 2019-April 2020. Sales reached around 2,800 tonnes this April. Open mouth in-shells accounted for three quarters of the total, according to Tehran-based Green Diamond Tree in its latest market update.
- The Iranian exchange value is growing against the euro and US dollar as their political and diplomatic relations are improving, firming prices.
- The 2021 crop totalled 135,000 tonnes (-44% y/y) with carry-over stocks at a minimum level of 5,000 tonnes, bringing the total supply to 140,000 tonnes. Seasonal sales totalled 100,000 tonnes. Domestic consumption took 26% of the total shipments.
- This means the remaining 2021-22 supply totals 40,000 tonnes until the next harvest in Q3 2022.

May 31  - Gradual fall in Indian turmeric prices (IHSmarkit)

- 3% fall in spot prices
- 7% fall in the 2021-22 production

- The Indian spot fob polished turmeric price averaged INR 8,382 ($108) per quintal at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, South Central) on 27 May, 3% less than on 28 April.

- Harvesting has started in January 2022 and will finish in March. The planted area has increased by 20-25% y/y to 353,000-368,000 hectares. Trading sources estimate that the yield has plummeted by 30% y/y as heavy rains have hit plantations in some regions, offsetting area expansion. The 2021-22 turmeric crop is forecast at 1,101,000 tonnes, 7% less year-on-year, according to the Spices Board of India (SBI).

- The country’s global sales reached 36,740 tonnes, worth $60.4 million, in Q1 2022, 1% less y/y in volume and 30% more in value. The main importers were Bangladesh, Morocco and the UAE, taking 13%, 11% and 9%, respectively.
- The updated daily futures market prices on NCDEX is for deliveries in May closed at INR 8,086/quintal on 20 May, 10% less than on 21 April

May 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- As almost expected, with a range of GBP 1729 / 1750 and a net turnover of no 10,000 lots, it was a quiet end to the week. After an inside day, the Sep 22 ended the day at GBP -3 at GBP 1739.

- For the week, the London market lost GBP 4, New York gained $ 29. Commitment of Traders as of 24.05 show a further significant reduction of the net position by 12,210 lots to now only 50,112 lots net long.

- The positioning becomes clearer with a look at Managed Money. This liquidated "only" 2,500 lots, while the short position expanded by a good 17,000 lots. Managed Money now has a speculative short position of 3,523 lots. With only two full trading days (Tuesday & Wednesday), volume is likely to remain low and volatility high.

May 27  - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- US green coffee stocks rose by 86,308 60-kg bags during April
- Brazil’s Conab cut its 2022/23 coffee production to 53.4 million 60-kg bags
- Vietnamese coffee exports in April 2022 were 2.6 million 60-kg bags

Production
- Brazil's Conab cut its 2022/23 coffee production to 53.4 million 60-kg bags from its previous outlook of 55.7 million. If realized, this would still be 12% above the 47.7 million bags produced in 2021/22, but still a 15.3% decrease from record output seen in 2020/21. Conab now estimates production of arabica coffee at 35.7 million bags this year, 13.6% more than 31.4 million in 2021/22, but significantly below a 38.7 million bag forecast previously.
- Colombia produced 750,000 60-kg bags of coffee in April 2022, 7% less y/y, according to Fedecafe. This brought total production in the first seven months of 2021/22 to 6.9 million bags, down 17% from 8.3 million in the same period last year.

Demand
- US green coffee stocks in port warehouses rose by 86,308 60-kg bags during April 2022 to reach 5,906,606 bags at the end of the month, according to the Green Coffee Association (GCA). Stocks were up 2.5% from 5,762,567 bags at the same time in 2021. The data includes both the coffee in ICE exchange warehouses and volumes kept by other market participants at US ports.

Trade
- Vietnamese coffee exports in April 2022 were 2.6 million 60-kg bags, compared with 3.5 million in March and 2.2 million bags in the same month last year, customs data showed. This brought total exports in the first seven months of 2021/22 to 17.4 million bags, up from 15 million in the same period a year ago.
- Brazil exported 2.5 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in April, down from 3.3 million in the same month last year, Cecafe said. Trade Ministry data showed green exports at 2.7 million 60-kg bags in April, down 20% y/y. Total exports in 2021/22 fell 14.0% to 36 million bags.
- Ugandan coffee exports in April 2022 fell by 24.1% to 407,762 60-kg bags from 537,428 bags in the same month last year, UCDA said. This was slightly below the 430,000 bags projected by UCDA last month. This brought total exports to 3.2 million bags, down 3.3% y/y. Robusta shipments were down 11.8% at 2.6 million bags, while arabica exports were up 56.8% at 664,615 bags.

Price
- Arabica coffee futures fell to their lowest in nearly six months (202.30 cents) and robusta futures even an eight-month low ($2,004 per tonne), in the week leading up to May 11.
- Investors were continuing to scale back long positions as the conflict in Ukraine and China's zero-COVID policy dented risk appetite.
- The fall of the Brazilian real to the lowest since the end of March, at 5.1618 against the US dollar, also weighed on coffee prices.
- By May 17, arabica coffee hit a 3½-week high of 229.35 cents driven by Brazilian frost fears. However, initial assessments showed very little coffee crop damage, leading to arabica July ending down 9.60 cents at 217.60 cents per pound by the next session. However, by the end of the month, prices were firming again on an outlook for dry conditions in Brazil over the next week.
- July arabica coffee surged 9.55 cents to $2.266 per lb, while July robusta coffee rose $19 to $2,107 a tonne by May 26.

May 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With yesterday's holiday, here is the brief summary of the last two trading days (quotes attached base close yesterday): On Wednesday, further speculative selling caused another 8 week low. The Sep 22 traded to a low of GBP 1728 on Wednesday, much closer to GBP 1720 / 1700 support. Closing price Wednesday GBP -24 at GBP 1730. Yesterday's holiday was the end of the road for now. The Sep 22 LDN ventured a brief look down (low GBP 1722), then recovered relatively quickly to end the day GBP +12 at GBP 1742. Profit taking by the shorts from New York was the increased driver here, coupled with price hedging by the industry just before the Sep 22 $ 2400 level. Close NY Sep 22 $ +49 at $ 2482. NY will be closed on Monday (Memorial Day). London is closed next Thursday and Friday (Queen's Jubilee).

May 27  - Chinese dried garlic prices stabilise as harvest begins (IHSmarkit)

- Bullish key points: rising international demand and sea shipping fares
- Bearish key points: weak domestic demand and halted ports due to lockdowns

- China’s dehydrated garlic prices have stabilised at $4,350/tonne for Grade A fakes cfr, just as farmers start harvesting the crop. Prices are steady due to the combination of port paralysis and weak domestic demand during the latest lockdown, although they are set to increase when port traffics recover and sea shipping fares grow. In addition, domestic speculators purchased high volumes of the stocked product in February-March and will try to push up prices from August onwards, when the harvest finishes.

- The current output forecast has been upgraded slightly, despite the fall in planted acreage. This is owed to higher yields, which were driven by favourable weather, according to trading sources. This means 2022 production may cover demand, although exports are increasing, having reached a record this March, particularly to the US.

May 27  - Vietnamese pepper exports continue to grow (IHSmarkit)

- 17% growth in exports
- Record imports of whole pepper

- Vietnam’s pepper exports in January-April 2022 fell by 17% year-on-year in volume to 77,810 tonnes and by 38% in value to $362.7 million. The US, India and the UAE were the main importers, accounting for 28%, 8% and 7%, respectively, of the total volume.

- Vietnamese imports of whole pepper reached the record of 12,490 tonnes, 36% more y/y, unveiling how the processors are purchasing from other origins despite the low crop and taking advantage of the current high international prices. The main suppliers were Cambodia, Brazil and Indonesia, accounting for 37%, 36% and 15%, respectively, of the volume.

May 26  - Nigeria nears the end of its latest dried ginger crop (IHSmarkit)

- Nigerian prices holding level
- Subdued demand

- Nigeria is approaching the end of its dried ginger crop and its price offers are holding stable. S&P Global Commodity Insights prices data lists Nigerian split dried ginger at $2,500/tonne cif northwest Europe.

- Blair Coutts of UK trader Blair Impex said he had seen offers at $2,200/tonne cif.

- Albert Berisa of Rotterdam trader Catz International told S&P Global Commodity Insights: “The market is quite stable. The main crop in Nigeria is more or less over. The period in which the majority of the volume is shipped is between December and March or beginning of April. Now we are in May the exports are going to slow down and shipments will not be of the high quality of the previous months.” Berisa added that so far there are no signs of any price volatility on Nigerian dried ginger. “The expectation is that prices will remain stable for the time being,” he said.

- Demand has been moderate and nothing dramatic. Coutts observed: “It is extremely quiet.” He suggested that buyers have covered already and have no further requirements for the time being.

- Berisa recalled that Chinese dried ginger prices increased by around 10-15% a few months ago. “They have been drying less ginger than normal and they have problems with logistics and Covid and lockdowns which is also creating some problems,” he explained. Chinese whole and sliced dried ginger are both quoted at $4,500/tonne cif northwest Europe by S&P Global Commodity Insights prices data.

- Meanwhile, Indian ginger prices have held stable. S&P Global Commodity Insights prices data has Cochin dried ginger at $3,000/tonne cif northwest Europe.

- No major pricing movements in the market as a whole are expected until the next crops in Nigeria or China. Coutts suggested: “If anything, the price could go up slightly because the new crop [Nigeria] is not until December. Indian and Chinese dried ginger are both more expensive so there is probably more room for manoeuvre on the upside for Nigerian than there is on the downside.”

May 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- A weak British pound, as well as very cautious industry price hedges just below GBP 1800 (for the 2023 dates), provided support yesterday. The Sep 22 LDN recovered slightly and ended the day tentatively up GBP +7 at GBP 1754. The structure continues to look flat, with all dates for the 22/23 crop closing max. one pound apart. Recovery or countermovement after a correction of a good GBP 90 or just a day's pause before specs / funds rush back into the markets to reduce speculative position or build new shorts if necessary?

- Too early to tell and with many market participants at least mentally in tomorrow's holiday, the playing field would be clear for the machines.

May 24  - Fall in Indian guar gum prices ( IHSmarkit )
- 6% fall in spot prices 
- 19% growth in exports

- India’s guar gum spot price averaged INR11,751.40/quintal ($150.9/quintal) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 23 May 2022, 6% less than on 25 April.
- Indian exports rose by 19% y/y to 58,654 tonnes, valued at $116.2 million in Q1 2022, 80% more. The US, Germany and Russia accounted for 33%, 13% and 12% (volume), respectively.
- The daily futures market prices on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) was for Delivery in May 2022 at INR11,600/quintal on 20 May 2022, 7% less than on 21 April !

May 24  - Guatemalan cardamom market returns to stable pattern after recent slight gains (IHSmarkit )

- Latest crop (2021-22) still viewed as favourable
- MYQs showed strongest price increases
- Middle East buyers back in the market

- The Guatemalan cardamom market has reverted to its stable pattern after a moderate upturn in recent weeks. In the absence of any further news on the 2021-22 crop it is reasonable to assume that the volume reached the estimated range of 35,000-38,000 tonnes.

Albert Berisa of Rotterdam trader Catz International mentioned that Guatemala has exported 31,000 tonnes of cardamom from October 2021-end April 2022 and a further 2,000-3,000 tonnes is likely to be shipped this month, leaving the remaining balance to be exported in the months up to September.
“The question is whether Guatemalan exporters are going to sit on some carry-over stock until the total exports reach maybe 33,000 or 34,000 tonnes, which means there will be a carry-over of maybe around 4,000 tonnes which they will prefer to sell at some better prices than the current prices in anticipation of the next crop. Of course that is something which we can’t predict at the moment,” Berisa said. He recalled that prices at local level increased in the last few months and this was to some extent reflected in international prices. Certain grades were less available than others and it was these that showed the largest price gain. This was the case with the mixed yellow qualities (MYQ).

- S&P Global Commodity Insights data currently lists Guatemalan MYQ cardamom of minimum 360 g/l at $9,500/tonne cif any destination. Guatemalan bold green cardamom of approximately 8 mm size is quoted at $17,500/tonne cif Middle East and seeds at $15,000/tonne cif any destination.

- Berisa summed up the general tendency on prices as being slightly firmer. “Ramadan is over so there is now some more demand again from the Middle East entering the market. Of course, the contracts that were concluded before Ramadan are now also being shipped. Partially they were already sold and partially they were unsold and now of course they are also selling locally which means they will also need replenishment,” he explained. Meanwhile, Europe remains quiet partly due to the war in Ukraine. Berisa noted that although Middle East buying has picked up of late the overall demand from this region is not as strong as it has been in the past.

- The recent flurry of demand was particularly noticeable for the MYQs which are the main grades used for grinding purposes and at the time of purchasing were being offered at their lowest pricing of the last five years, Berisa observed. The net result of this is that there are now very few MYQs left available so buyers have to purchase the other grades instead, which are commanding higher prices than MYQs.

May 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Monday's trading proved to be a rollercoaster ride of up and down trading. After a much weaker Friday in NY vs Ldn, expectations were for a much weaker opening in Ldn. Undeterred, Ldn opened only slightly negative to subsequently trade into positive territory to GBP + 20. NY followed first, but could not hold this position as system trading came in and the price fell into the afternoon. Ldn closed at 1747 against July (GBP +4). NY at 2473 (USD +20). In both markets we are still below all moving averages and in Ldn still above the next support at GBP 1720, followed by 1700 and GBP 1660 (GBP 1660 being a 5 times support point in Feb/May/June/July and December 2021).

- The industry remained in observer mode. Reported weekly arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as per Monday: seasonal arrivals from 01 Oct 21 to 22 May 22 at 1.874 mln mt, a  4.5% decline from the same period last season.

May 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- On Friday, speculative selling pressure continued to keep prices weak. The Sep 22 now lost £70, within two days and almost without resistance, and traded to new two-month lows at GBP 1739. The week thus ended with a loss of GBP -23 and a close at GBP 1743 / Sep 22. The industry continues to show itself absent, next support should technically start at GBP 1720 / 1700.

- Commitment of Traders as of 17.05 show the second (though not so significant) reduction of net position by 3,680 lots to 62,322 lots long. Managed Money liquidated 7,103 lots and thus still holds a smaller speculative position of 16,029 lots. Interestingly, in New York, Managed Money now has a small short position of 662 lots.

May 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

At least temporarily, firmer British pound yesterday caused further selling pressure from the speculative community. They seem to have chosen cocoa as a new "weak" target. Fundamentally, the market is where it should be, in a never-ending sideways movement. The Sep 22 traded in a range of GBP 1763 / 1794. Closing GBP -23 at GBP 1766. The Sep / Dec 22 spread traded to a new low of GBP -38 , despite deficit there seems to be still enough cocoa.

May 19  - Fall in Indian sesame price (IHSmarkit)

- 7% fall in spot price
- 13% fall in the Indian production

- India’s new sesame seed (whitish) spot price averaged INR10,950/quintal ($141.2/quintal) at the Unjha wholesale market (Gujarat, North East) on 18 May 2022, 7% less than on 19 April.
- India’s 2021-22 sesame production is expected to reach 708,000 tonnes, 13% less y/y due to unfavourable weather.
- Indian exports were 30,820 tonnes, worth $58.4 million, in January-February 2022, 15% less y/y in volume and 28% less in value. The main importers were South Korea, Indonesia and Taiwan, which took 8%, 7% and 7%, respectively.
- Imports reached 7,335 tonnes in January-February 2022, 34% less y/y. The main suppliers were Sudan and Nigeria, which accounted for 93% and 4%, respectively.

May 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

There were no compelling new insights on yesterday's trading day.

- London - after a slightly firmer opening - dutifully followed the New York market and traded down to lows of GBP 1783 / Sep 22. With low net turnover, the 2nd month ended the day GBP -10 at GBP 1789. New York Sep 22 lost $ 36 and closed at $ 2494.

- Both markets thus ended the day below the respective psychological resistances of GBP 1800 / $ 2500. This, coupled with slightly oversold markets, should at least provide for an attempt at an upward breakout.

May 18  - Indian cumin spot prices stabilised at around INR22,000/quintal (IHSmarkit)

- Slight increase in futures prices from June-September 2022
- 13% fall in exports

- India’s cumin seed spot prices averaged INR21,997 ($283.1/quintal) at the Unjha market (Gujarat, North West) on 17 May 2022, unchanged month-on-month.
- Cumin seed exports reached 28,670 tonnes valued at $62.4 million in January-February 2022, 13% less year-on-year in volume and 4% less y/y in value, according to customs data.
- Bangladesh and Afghanistan, a traditional re-exporter to Pakistan were the main importers, accounting for 26% and 11%, respectively.
- India’s 2021-22 cumin seed crop is expected to plummet to around 600,000-650,000 tonnes (-25-30% less y/y) as farmers cut drastically planted hectares, after prices hit the rock-bottom in the previous season, pushing up prices although the harvest is in full swing, according to trading sources.

May 18  - Spanish almond crop forecast downgraded due to frosts and heavy rains (IHSmarkit)

- 21% fall in production
- Irrigated orchards account for 65% of the hectarage

- Spain’s 2022-23 almond production is projected at 75,051 (kernel) tonnes, 10% less year-on-year, on 510,584 bearing hectares, non-irrigated taking 428,176 hectares against 82,048 hectares of irrigated, according to the Spanish associations of Nut Growers (Aeofruse) and Handlers (Descalmendra).
- Irrigated plantations may account for 65% of the total volume.
- Organic production takes 20.4% of the total hectarage.
- Frosts and heavy rains hit almond orchards in East and South Spain between April-May, particularly Spanish varieties such as Marcona and Largueta, which bloom later than other varieties.
- However, the Spanish production is expected to recover a strong growth in the following seasons due to rising plantings of irrigated orchards.

May 18  - Vietnam cashew kernel exports decline this April (IHSmarkit)

- January-April shipments running 7.3% behind year ago levels
- Seasonal sales to China 48.9% down from those of a year ago
- Reduced demand last week

- Vietnam’s cashew kernel exports were 5.2% down this April versus the same month in 2021 at 45,508 tonnes. This brought the country’s shipments of cashew kernels in the first four months of 2022 to 156,179 tonnes, a fall of 7.35% from the January-April 2021 period.
- Vietnam’s cashew kernel exports to the US were 3% down last month at 13,064 tonnes whilst its seasonal shipments to this destination were 9.5% lower at 43,484 tonnes. Exports to China fell 31.4% last month to 3,391 tonnes, bringing the seasonal total to this destination to 8,547 tonnes – a decline of 48.9% y/y.
- Vietnam’s cashew shipments to the EU and others this April were 2% down at 32,053 tonnes and its January-April 2022 volume was 7% lower at 104,148 tonnes.

- Ho Chi Minh City-based supplier Golden Bridge observed that the April 2022 volumes were up from those of the previous month and were quite close to those of April 2021, a time in which prices had also moved up as they have recently. The firm added that the market was in silent mode last week with reduced demand and transactions. Prices are struggling to hold the $2.90 level as most buyers are hesitant and would prefer to see more of a discount.

May 18  - Vietnam raises imports of pepper due to disappointing harvest (IHSmarkit)

- 15-18% fall in production expected
- Main suppliers: Cambodia, Brazil and Indonesia

- Vietnam’s imports of pepper grew by 7% year-on-year to 12,105 tonnes this April, black pepper taking 86% against white pepper with 14%, due to a disappointing harvest, according to the Vietnamese Pepper Association (VPA). The main suppliers were Cambodia, Brazil and Indonesia, with 4,709 tonnes, 3,915 tonnes and 1,855 tonnes, respectively. - VPA projects that the 2021-22 production may be around 165,000-175,000 tonnes, 15%-18% less year-on-year and downgrading by 7%-12% a previous estimate, due to the combination of severe drought and outdated orchards.
- Farmers have been discouraged to develop new plantings or raise yield due to low prices in previous seasons and rising production costs for inputs, especially fertilisers.

May 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Almost as expected, the firmer start to the week was followed by the correction. In a range of GBP 25, Sep 22, new 2nd month, traded in moderate volume and tested the support at GBP 1800 before closing just below at GBP 1799 (-17). Thus, Sep follows the march of Jul 22, which was to close, when still the 2nd month, exactly at this level the previous day. Unsurprisingly, the structure also remains loyal, certainly with the assistance of the GBP slightly weaker in the trend and the rolling of positions. The front two spreads Jul/Sep and Sep/Dec trade in discount of -25 and -28 respectively, the rest of the curve remains flat and indecisive.

- May tenders are 4000mt, as expected mostly Nigeria, which is not exactly record breaking. From the origin, we hear that Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire are making plans to regularly announce the origin differential paid by contracting parties. The background, they say, is greater transparency to shore up differentials that have come under pressure with the introduction of LID. One wonders whether such transparency might not have the opposite effect.

May 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The start of the week was bullish from the outset, with a positive opening that held throughout the day. Opening at GBP 1779, trading up to a high of GBP 1809, then closing in the mid-range at GBP 1799.

- Cocoa was thus in line with the commodity market trend: Bloomberg Commodity Index: 129.95 (+1.30%), wheat +5%; coffee +5%; cocoa Ldn & NY+1% and sugar +2%.

- Of significance was the expiry of the May term at midday yesterday. After the May/July22 spread diverged to a discount of GBP 175 over the course of the last few weeks, the spread finally closed at the discount of GBP 112, as further longs with only little open interest left sought to close. Consequently, under 400 lots will physically change hands.

- Cocoa arrivals at Côte d'Ivoire ports as of Sunday totalled 1.84 million tonnes since the start of the season on 1 October, down 3.9% on the previous season.

May 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Even though the cocoa market ended the week a bit firmer again, prices remain in their comfort zone of the past weeks between GBP 1750 and GBP 1850 basis 2nd month. Jul22 closed at GBP 1779, GBP 13 up. On its last full trading day, the front spread recovered but is still GBP 100 in the discount.

- In related developments, another BDU Cameroon passed grading, and another BDU Nigeria was rejected.

- The Committments of Traders show as of Tuesday unsurprisingly a significant reduction in the speculative net long position by a good 24k lots (now 23k lots across both trading venues). Setting the tone here was the New York Managed Money fraction, which accounted for 80% of this long liquidation and shows an almost balanced book with just shy of 4k lots net long, London 19k lots net long. The total position fell to 66k lots net long (-18k lots).

May 13  - Market Briefing: Sugar (IHSmarkit)

- Brazil CS crushing at 23.8 million tonnes by H2 April, 2022-23 output seen at 32.1 million
- US TRQ imports for 2022/23 are projected at 1.379 million STRV
- Pakistan imposes complete sugar exports ban

Production
- Sugarcane crushing Brazil’s CS picked up speed in the second half of April as more mills entered into operation, UNICA data showed. Sugarcane processing reached 23.823 million tonnes, which still reflects a drop of 19.7% from 29.675 million in the same period last year. Total cane crushing during April, the first month of the new 2022/23 crop year, was 29.110 million tonnes, down from 45.340 million last year. Sugar production in Brazil's Centre/South region should reach 32.1 million tonnes in 2022/23; flat on the year but 900,000 tonnes less than in the previous estimate in March, local consultancy Datagro said.

Demand
- US TRQ imports for 2022/23 are projected at 1.379 million STRV by the USDA, with levels set at minimum levels consistent with the WTO and FTA bindings and with a TRQ shortfall projected at 99,208. For 2021/22, TRQ imports are up 159,625 STRV from last month to 1.727 million on the reallocation of the TRQ shortfall. The TRQ shortfall for 2021/22 is now estimated at 70,548 STRV. Imports from Mexico were raised by 170,000 STRV to reflect the recent increase in the "other sugar" export limit made by the Department of Commerce.

Trade
- Pakistan has imposed a "complete ban" on the export of sugar to stabilise its price in the domestic market. This is despite the record sugar crop in 2021/22. Pakistani consumers have been complaining about the shortage of sugar and flour since last month when the government had taken the initiative to reduce the prices of various food items to provide relief during the Muslim fasting month. The shortage was particularly reported in Punjab, where utility stores had run out of sugar, the report added.
-Brazilian sugar mills set prices on the New York Stock Exchange for 17.5% of the next 2023/24 crop, Archer Consulting said.

Price
- Raw sugar futures in New York fell to the lowest level in nearly two months as weak sentiment continued to dominate trading activity. The benchmark raw sugar contract for July delivery shed another 12 points to settle at 18.54 cents per pound on May 10, after hitting its lowest since 16 March at 18.51 cents.
- Meanwhile white sugar futures in London also ended in the red with the benchmark August contract falling by $3.10 to settle at $518.30 per tonne, just above the lower end of the day's $518.00-524.40 range.

May 13  - Market Briefing: Cocoa (IHSmarkit)

- Ivory Coast port arrivals down 4% y/y
-  Brazilian chocolate production up 36% y/y
- Ghanaian cocoa arrivals dropped by 33% y/y

Production
- The Ivory Coast saw cumulative arrivals take a 4% y/y drop by May 8 compared to 7 days ago, when volumes saw a 3.2% y/y fall. Arrivals reached 1.804 million tonnes, while weekly volumes totaled 34,000, compared to 40,000 tonnes last week. This week’s data was also updated following recent data from the cocoa regulator (CCC), which showed arrivals reach 1.770 million tonnes by April 30, down 3.2% y/y.
- Chocolate production in Brazil witnessed a significant recovery in 2021, increasing by 36% y/y as well as exceeding pre-pandemic levels of 2019. In 2021, its industry produced 693,000 tonnes of chocolate, this is compared to 510,000 tonnes in 2020 and 2019’s 559,000 tonnes.

Demand
- Ivory Coast’s cocoa grind rose around 16.7% y/y in April to 49,000 tonnes, data from the exporters’ association GEPEX showed. The total grind from the start of the 2021/22 season in October stood at 364,000 tonnes of beans by the end of the April compared with 344,000 tonnes at the same point last season.

Trade
- Ghanaian cocoa arrivals dropped by 33% y/y, the latest figures from marketing board COCOBOD showed. Ghana’s graded and sealed (G&S) cocoa arrivals stood at 579,000 tonnes by May 5 since the start of the season on October 1, down from 861,000 tonnes in same period the previous season.
- Barry Callebaut CEO’s Peter Boone, said he does not think chocolate product is becoming necessarily overpriced when compared to other supermarket items. He admitted that cocoa had had the biggest impact on chocolate prices, though he didn’t expect this to dent demand.

Price
- Cocoa was mostly lower this week owed to a stronger dollar, which surged to a 19-year high. On May 10, prices moved lower for a fifth session, with London cocoa posting a 1½-month low to £1,758 per tonne. July New York cocoa also fell $10 to $2,445 a tonne. By May 12, New York cocoa slipped to a two-week low of to $2,433 a tonne after having hit a five-month low of $2,421
- A group of European Union parliamentarians have asked the European Commission to open negotiations with Ivory Coast and Ghana to address low cocoa prices this week.

May 13  - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- Vietnamese coffee exports total 157,451 tonnes in April
- Arabica coffee futures rally 8%
- Tenderable robusta stocks rise to 1.59 million bags

Production
- Colombian coffee output will fall to between 12.0 million and 12.5 million 60-kg bags this year because of heavy La Nina rains, said Robert Velez, the head of the National Federation of Coffee Growers (Fedecafe). Coffee output already dropped 9% last year to 12.6 million bags from 13.9 million, because of bad weather and anti-government protests which stymied exports. In 2019 output hit a quarter-century record of 14.8 million bags.

Demand
- Tenderable robusta stocks held in ICE Futures Europe nominated warehouses rose by 185 ten-tonne lots to 9,534 (around 1.589 million 60-kg bags) in the two weeks to 9 May, exchange data showed. Stocks in Antwerp rose by 198 lots to 4,980 lots, or 52% of all certified robusta stocks. It is followed by Amsterdam with 2,316 lots and London (2,073). Despite the recent small rise this is down sharply from 15,659 lots (2.610 million bags) held at the same time last year.

Trade
- Vietnamese coffee exports in April 2022 were 157,451 tonnes (2.624 million 60-kg bags), compared with 211,060 (3.518 million) in March and 132,146 tonnes (2.202 million bags) in the same month last year, customs data showed. This brought total exports in the first seven months of 2021/22 (October/September) to 1.047 million tonnes (17.454 million bags), up from 900,104 (15.002 million) in the same period a year ago.
- Brazil exported 2.560 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in April 2022, down from 3.382 million in the same month last year, exporters association Cecafe said. This was the lowest quantity for April since 2016. Arabica exports declined to 2.425 million bags from 3.046 million, while exports of conilon coffee fell to 134,512 bags from 336,280.

Price
- Arabica coffee futures in New York surged nearly 8% on May 11, in a countertrend rally to the previous strong losses, which saw the July contract hitting a six-month low of 202.30 cents per pound on May 10. Arabica July added 16.10 cents to settle at 219.90 cents per pound, in wide dealings between 204.05 and 220.45 cents. Some attributed the rally to forecasts for the arrival of a strong cold front to Brazil next week, but frost damage at this time of year is rather unlikely. In fact, the market had become technically oversold after falling about 10% during the last month.

May 13  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- Peru’s paprika production down 20%
- Sudan concludes gum Arabic harvest
- Indian coriander seed exports fall in January-February 2022

Production
- Turkey is expected to see fresh garlic production reach a four-year high of 100,000 tonnes this year, with production increasing year-on-year. The new season for Turkish garlic started in early May.
- India’s chilli crop has been harvested and the volume is lower than in the previous season, despite rising acreage, due to pests. In addition, the average quality is poor. Mexico’s chilli crop is expected to be abundant thanks to favourable weather.
- Peru’s paprika output is expected to be 20% lower than in the previous season as growers have cut planted area due to high production costs. Spain’s paprika industry is focused on processing and planting high-quality product and its volume will be low in the long-term.
- Sudan’s gum Arabic harvest has concluded and domestic stocks are completely replenished, industry players starting to estimate the 2021-22 production whose volume is considered as high, trading sources explained this week.
- Sri Lanka’s 2021-22 cloves crop, harvesting of which concluded this February, declined by 60% year-on-year to around 3,000-4,000 tonnes, and 9% less than in the 2019-20 season, due to the combination of heavy rains and high prices for fertilisers.

Demand
- Turkey generated increased overseas buying interest in its fresh garlic last year.
- Logistics issues have prompted gum Arabic buyers in the EU and US to switch from Sudan to alternative origins.
- Export offtake for Indian coriander seed declined in the first two months of this year.

Trade
- In 2021, Turkey exported over 5,000 tonnes of fresh garlic, 106% up y/y. The main destinations were the US, Iraq, Ukraine and Canada.
- Port Sudan is starting to recover its handling activity although sea shipping services are still very unreliable and with high prices, restricting sales to purchasers available to contract several full containers, a well-informed trade source dealing in Sudanese gum Arabic told S&P Global Commodity Insights this week. Although Sudan is the largest global supplier of gum Arabic, EU and US processors have been importing from Chad, Senegal and Nigeria due to social riots and port paralysis in Sudan.
- Indian coriander seed exports fell by 25% y/y in volume to 6,370 tonnes and by 6% in value to $13.8 million in January-February 2022. The main importers of whole coriander seed were Malaysia, the UAE and Nepal, which took 28%, 19% and 11%, respectively,

Price
- Mexico’s chilli prices are expected to remain firm in the mid-term, especially for product which fulfils US maximum residue levels.
- Sudanese gum Arabic prices have fallen to $2,150/tonne fob for Hashab type in April-May with one-month transit shipments, down from $2,450/tonne in February.
- The Indian coriander spot price averaged INR12,200/quintal ($157.8/quintal) at Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 9 May 2022, 3% less than on 11 April.

May 13  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- 1% fall in the US 2022 peanut crop
- The latest Covid-19 lockdowns in China are slowing Philippine sales of banana chips 
- 9% fall in US raisin sales

Production
- Australia’s 2022 macadamia production estimate has been downgraded by 10% to 49,340 in-shell tonnes at 3.5% moisture (52,900 in-shell tonnes at 10% moisture) compared with the initial estimate, due to heavy rainfalls in key origins such as Queensland and New South Wales. Bundaberg, the main origin with 46% of Australia’s crop, was not affected by the severe weather.
- The US 2020 peanut crop is projected at 2.21 million (short) tons on 635,700 hectares, 1% less year-on-year in volume and 2.5% down in acreage.
- Portugal’s 2030 chestnut production is estimated at 78,000 tonnes, 79% more than in 2020 thanks to the expansion in planted area.

Demand
- The demand for banana chips is recovering slightly, especially in Japan and the US, tempering the fall in the China due to current Covid-19 lockdowns.
- Indian and Chinese demand for peanuts is at record levels as processors are suffering a sunflower shortage due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

Trade
- Californian walnut shipments fell by 10% y/y to 67.7 million in-shell basis pounds this April, bringing seasonal sales (September-April) to 517.2 million lbs, 13% less y/y.
- California’s raisin shipments were 20,597 (short) tons this April, 9% less year-on-year, bringing seasonal (August-April) sales to 175,000 tons, 11% less y/y. Exports (including Canada) declined by 24% y/y to 7,080 tons. Japan and Canada were the main importers, accounting for 26% and 7%, respectively.
- The Californian almond and walnut industries are worried about delays in sea shipments, according to a letter sent to major sea shipping companies by senators Dianne Feinstein and Alex Padilla (both in California). They estimate that there are around 1.4 billion pounds of almonds, which must be shipped between May-July 2022. This means around 30,000 containers, and say there is a similar volume of walnuts suffering the same issue.

Price
- Trading sources quoted the following prices for Philippine banana chips in May (fob Davao):
    Banana chips broken, sweetened: $0.87/lb
    Banana chips whole, sweetened: $0.93/lb
    Banana chips whole, unsweetened: $0.95/lb

May 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Wednesday's firming was followed yesterday by a further weak period. The New York-induced weak opening continued into the evening, bringing quotes to the lower end of the 1750-1850 basis 2nd month corridor established over the past few weeks. On the second-to-last full trading day of the May 22 contract, longs bailing at the last minute, open AA trades, and of course pending tender sent the May/Jul22 front spread to a new low of -142. As liquidity fades away, the open May 22 position now stands at 1253 lots. The 2nd month of July 22 tested the support near the 50-day average around GBP 1770 and closed below at GBP 1766, down 25 points.

- Meanwhile, the origin unsurprisingly held back - one is well sold and has no pressure. Price hedges against covers from the origin are thus limited.

May 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After 6 days of declining prices and reaching oversold levels in both markets, the first countermovement occurred yesterday. The first trade in London drove prices up by 20 pounds. NY promptly followed. Closing price in London 1791 GBP (+33), only 4 pounds below its daily high, and NY +44 USD with a closing price of 2489 USD (15 USD below its daily high of 2504).

- The cause of yesterday's correction is clear: a counter-covering of the high managed money short positions built up during the last down market. For clarity we looking forward to the COT report on Friday. With a daily rise of 2%, cocoa followed the general upward movement in commodities after some significant declines over the last week.

- Yesterdays Bloomberg Commodity Index +2.25% EU wheat +1.7%, Ldn coffee +8%; oil +5.5%. 

May 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With no significant new market news, the weakness in the cocoa market continued. Immediately after the opening, renewed selling pressure brought prices further down to the the numerical support 120-day moving average support level at GBP 1750. Thereby triggering new buy positions and a slight recovery in prices.

- Closing price for the July position GBP 1758 (-GBP6).  Over the past five trading days, we have witnessed a decline in cocoa price in Euro of approx. -7% and in GBP at -5%. 2% less in GBP terms due to the existing weakness of the British Pound. The front spread lost another GBP -16 now trading at (GBP -90). The structure thus remains in carry for the current crop.

- The new main crop continues to trade at a GBP 8 discount. At GBP 1758 we are now at the lower end of an upward channel that has been in place since March. If this is broken, we see the next support points at GBP 1720 and then GBP 1700. If the channel is maintained, a renewed upward movement to GBP 1855 by the end of May is possible.

May 11 - Sugar market heading to large surplus, bearish price outlook seen - StoneX
The global sugar market will see a relatively large surplus of 4.1 million tonnes in the new season starting in October as a 5% output growth in Asia will more than compensate a small rise in demand seen at 1.1%, broker and analyst StoneX said on Tuesday. The larger Asian production, along with expectations of a better crop in Brazil, will likely drive prices lower toward the end of 2022 and in the first quarter of 2023, StoneX said in a presentation in New York which this week hosts a series of seminars and social interactions among sugar market players.

May 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- In reaction to the weak close on Friday evening in NY, the weak phase continued in London yesterday. Immediately after the opening, selling pressure from liquidations of managed money longs brought the market to new 2-week lows (GBP 1757 Jul 22).

- The weakening British pound against the USD slowed the slide to some extent, but prices still lost around 1.3% for the day, closing at 2 Jul 22 GBP 1764 (-23).

- Five trading days before the expiration of the May 22 contract, another 4 BDUs Nigeria were successfully graded yesterday. Without surprise, the front spread continued to lose (-74). The structure thus remains in carry for the current crop, with only the new main crop contracts trading at the GBP 8 discount.

- All in all, the dominating factors are less fundamentally driven, but more by forex trading and adjustments of speculative positions. There is little news from the origin.

- Côte d'Ivoire arrivals are at 1,804 million mt (-4% below last year).

May 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- As the last trading week began, so it ended - with prices continuing to fall. For the 2nd position, the trading week ended in total for London with -1.1% at GBP 1787 and for New York with -2.9% at USD 2492, with the difference Ldn vs NY (1.8%) largely resulting from the strengthening of the USD vs. the British pound.

- After the price slumps of recent weeks, the Commitment of Traders figures reported on Tuesday evening and published on Friday indicate a stronger rebuilding of net long positions. Net long positions Ldn and NY combined increased by 17.9k lots from 66.05k to 83.9k lots.

- Whereas the open interest and thus the volume in cocoa decreased again in the last weeks. A clear market trend is still not apparent. However, we are noting that in the last price movements there was no downward breakout of the lows, while the highs are always quoted higher. We continue to observe this trend.

May 06  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics ( IHSmarkit )

- 7% fall in India’s turmeric production
- 58% increase in Peruvian ginger exports
- 2% fall in Indian turmeric prices

Production
- The 2022-23 turmeric crop is forecast at 1,101,000 tonnes, 7% less year-on-year, although the planted area has increased by 20-25% y/y to 353,000-368,000 hectares. The average yield has plummeted by 30% y/y as heavy rains have hit plantations in some regions, offsetting area expansion. The 2022-23 turmeric crop is forecast at 1,101,000 tonnes, 7% less year-on-year.
- Mexico’s 2021 honey crop has risen by 17% y/y to 63,360 tonnes thanks to bumper crops in Yucatán, Campeche, Quintana Roo and Chiapas (South East), according to the government. Meanwhile, a strong fall in 2022 is expected due to drought.

Demand
- The latest Chinese Covid-19 restrictions have halted demand for imported spices, especially in the area around Shanghai, hitting Vietnamese sales of pepper and cassia and Indonesian nutmeg exports.

Trade
- ndia’s global sales of turmeric reached 20,995 tonnes, worth $35.39 million, in January-February 2022, 15% less y/y in volume and 20% more in value. The main importers were the UAE, Malaysia and Morocco, taking 12%, 8% and 7%, respectively.
- India’s pepper exports fell by 13% y/y in volume to 3,090 tonnes, worth $15.5 million (+3% y/y) in January-February 2022. The US was the main importer, accounting for 28% of the total.
- Mexico’s honey exports reached 1,528 tonnes, worth $6.2 million, in January 2022, up from 524 tonnes valued at $1.6 million. The only relevant importers were Germany and the US with 398 tonnes, and 125 tonnes, respectively.
- Peruvian ginger exports rose by 58% y/y in volume to 11,107 tonnes and fell by 19% in value to $14.0 million in January-February 2021. The US and the Netherlands were the main importers, accounting for 54% and 19% of the exported volume in January-February 2022.

Prices
- The Indian spot fob polished turmeric price averaged INR8,200 ($108.1) per quintal at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, South Central) on 28 April, 2% less than on 4 April. The updated daily futures market prices on NCDEX were:

    INR8,738/quintal for deliveries in May 2022 on 27 April, 3% less than on 28 March.
    INR8,854/quintal for deliveries in June 2022 on 27 April, 2% less.
    INR8,970/quintal for deliveries in July 2022 on 27 April, 2% less.
    INR9,086/quintal for deliveries in August 2022 on 27 April, 5% less than on 1 April.

May 06  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts ( IHSmarkit )

- Brazil set for rise in peanut output despite earlier drought
- Frost cuts peanut crop in Argentina
- Spot demand for cashews is picking up in Europe

Production
- Brazil’s total 2022 in-shell peanut production is pegged at 910,000 tonnes versus 851,000 tonnes in 2021. The 2022 total kernels output is estimated at 682,500 tonnes against 638,250 tonnes in 2021. These figures were presented at last week’s International Peanut Forum (IPF) in Budapest. The 2022 y/y increase could have been more substantial but expectations were lowered by drought in parts of Brazil last November and December.
- Argentina’s 2021-22 peanut crop which is being harvested now is estimated at 1,278,389 tonnes compared with 1,527,522 tonnes in 2020-21. Repeated instances of frost from the end of March to mid-April created major problems. The figure for 2021-22 might have to be lowered further over the coming weeks and the final result should be known by the end of July. Another problem is that due to the global chaos over fuel supplies (arising largely from the Russia-Ukraine conflict) there is a shortage of crude oil for tractors and other farm machinery, so Argentine peanut farmers are unable to continue harvesting and/or deliver peanuts to processing plants.
- Vietnam's new cashew crop is mostly now finished but both volumes and quality are reduced due to daily heavy rains. With the disappointing cashew crops in Vietnam and Cambodia, and news from West Africa that total cashew crops might be down, world cashew supply is expected to be stable or slightly lower than last season.

Demand
- European nut traders and brokers report that spot demand for cashews is increasing for buyers to fill gaps between shipments. They feel that this shows consumer demand remains strong, despite obvious concerns such as rising inflation, fuel shortages, freight issues etc. At local level in Vietnam, cashew suppliers said there was an increase in volumes traded at the end of April with more buyers returning to the market and accepting higher prices. Chinese buyers also came back and purchased quite heavily, Vietnam suppliers reported.
- European nut traders and brokers also view macadamia demand as picking up of late as lower prices tempt buyers back.
- Global peanut industry sources at the IPF raised concerns over the potential impact of escalating inflation on demand although for the time being, demand is high, as shown in export figures (see Trade below).

Trade
- Official estimates are for Brazilian peanut exports to reach 240,000 tonnes this year versus 264,000 tonnes in 2021 and in 2020. However, the export figure for 2022 is now in doubt as Russia and Ukraine normally account for around 50% of Brazil’s peanut exports, 40% of this being to Russia usually.
- In the first three months of 2022 Argentina exported a record 176,473 tonnes of peanuts versus 173,031 tonnes in the same period of 2021.

Price
- Ho Chi Minh City-based supplier Golden Bridge observed that at the end of April Vietnam WW320 cashew prices have jumped $0.20/lb to around $2.90/lb fob. IHS Markit data as of May 6 listed Vietnam WW320s on an EXW UK basis at £5,247/tonne ($6,537/tonne).
- Farmer stock peanut prices in Brazil are declining on a weekly basis and the country’s farmers are now receiving prices which are below the production costs, it was stated at the IPF event.
- However, on an internationally traded level the general expectation is for world peanut export prices to increase due to a multitude of factors, including rising energy costs and high freight rates.

May 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Both markets continued to weaken yesterday and currently seem to breathe a sigh of relief. The Jul 22 in London posted a loss of 21 GBP before the Bank of England's 25 basis point interest increase knocked the British pound down. While the rate adjustment did not come as a surprise, it triggered a sharp loss against the USD and EUR.

- The GBP lost over 2% against the USD and over 1% against the EUR. The resulting support of the markets stopped a further downward movement. The close was at the lows of the day at GBP 1797 basis Jul 22, still 20 points above the technical support of the 50-day moving average (GBP 1776).

- The front spread ran to a new low while four fresh Nigeria BDUs and a couple of SDUs passed grading. Technicians are now keeping an eye on the trend line at the highs marked in the past weeks, which would allow upward room to GBP 1855 until the end of the month.

May 05  - Brazil robusta coffee harvest picks up, crop seen positively (Reuters)

 - Harvest work in robusta coffee farms in Brazil, the world's largest coffee grower, is picking up as more fields reach maturity, while market players see the new crop as positive both in terms of size and quality.
- Most of Brazil's and the world's coffee production is of arabica, a milder type and the choice of coffee chains such as Starbucks. Robusta beans have a stronger taste and are mostly used by the instant coffee industry. Robusta production has been growing in Brazil in recent years as trees are more resistant to heat and dryness compared to arabica. Brazil is the world's No. 2 producer of robusta after Vietnam.
"From October until now we had good moisture, the trees are in good shape. All indications point to a better crop than last season," said Luiz Carlos Bastianello, head of Cooabriel, the largest robusta coffee co-op in Brazil based in Espirito Santo, the number 1 robusta state.

- Brazil's food supply agency Conab sees the robusta crop growing 4.1% this year to nearly 17 million 60-kg bags. Private estimates see a larger number around 20 million bags. Cooabriel received only around 30,000 bags so far from associated farmers, but it expects to receive a total of 1.8 million bags, 300,000 bags more than in 2021. Bastianello said that much of the robusta crop will stay in Brazil this year, rather than being exported.
"The local market is paying well," he said.
- Local roasters have increased the share of robusta beans in their blends, trying to escape high arabica prices.
- Coffee exporters association Cecafe said in its April report that robusta exports fell 64% year-on-year.
- Robusta harvest has also started in Rondonia, the 2o largest producer, where output is seen growing 10% to 2.5 million bags.

May 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After a strong performance and GBP 100 rally since 26/04/22, the market consolidated yesterday on relatively light volume compared to the previous day. The July 22 traded in a GBP 1817 / 1845 range, with price hedging against origin cover and speculative buying joining hands. The July 22 ended the day GBP -15 at GBP 1819.

- A week before the May 22 expired, it corrected sharply (on admittedly low volume) to close GBP -35 at GBP 1739. Rumour has it that the origin continues to sit on unfixed volumes and is now finally happy to take the current levels. The May / July 22 spread is trading down to a low of GBP -85, closing GBP -79/-81.

- The Bank of England is deciding today on a possible further rate adjustment, which would be the 4th consecutive hike. The market expects an adjustment from 0.25% to 1%, the highest rate since 2009!

May 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Not entirely surprisingly, the London market followed the previous day's strong performance in NY on yesterday's trading day. Opening GBP +14 weaker than expected (GBP +30), the market nevertheless climbed to new 12-week highs of GBP 1847 / July 22. At the upper end of the range, hedge pressure from the origin put a lid on it all. Closing July 22 GBP +24 at GBP 1834.

- Surely a reaction to the large specs / funds position shifts that had New York starting the week firm on Monday. Volume was more than respectable with just under 47,000 lots gross in London and should attract visitors in the form of day traders. The next technical resistance we see is GBP 1876, the year-to-date high from mid-February.

- Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as of 01.05.22 at 1.807 mt vs. 1.866 mt from last year (-3.2%)

May 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With New York flying solo at the start of the week, prices rose steadily throughout the day. The July 22 NY traded in a range of $ 2563 / 2610, thus also breaking through the next resistance at $ 2600. Closing price $ +37 at $ 2604 / +1.4 %. Certainly a reaction of the massive expansion of the speculative short position of the managed money faction. As of the reporting deadline of 26.04., the specs / funds added almost 21,000 lots of speculative shorts.

- The question remains: after last week's correction of almost GBP 80 / $ 130, how much has already been liquidated? The little-changed open interest does not suggest too much and could therefore open the door for further covering against the short position.

- Exports of cocoa beans from Côte d'Ivoire at the end of the main harvest are a good 12% below last year. Exports of semi-finished products were almost unchanged at -0.2%.

May 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- A mix of origin related sales, a firm British pound and isolated profit taking kept the market in check on Friday in a 22-pound range basis Jul22. This further saw tentative speculative long liquidations and industrial buying interest oppose and neutralize each other. In addition, the end of the month and the upcoming holiday long weekend in many countries may have contributed.

- As a result, London ended the month of April 2022 with a loss of GBP -3 at GBP 1806, which still resulted in a volume of 32k lots. Unsurprisingly, the front May/Jul22 spread took center stage here with around half of the day's volume, which continued to diverge to GBP -66 (close -55) as May 22 nears its mid-month expiration.

- London remains closed today.