Softs News

Jan 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

At -1.5%, it was the most significant decline in the New Year to date. First signs of a correction? Technically not necessarily. If one does believe unnamed sources, origin sales should slow significantly, as the current crop in Côte d'Ivoire is almost complete and the coming crop is expected to be 900-950kmt compared to 720kmt in the beginning of January. So it would have been active three weeks behind us (??...) Though this would support the further inverse structure - even if slightly merging - the figure seems to be more on the "ambitious side". And, not surprisingly, it would be good news rather from the origin point of view. But if the figure is correct, then hedge sales should also be restrained in the light of cover from the origins. Perhaps the continued strength of the British pound will help to put pressure on the market. Today will bring new insights.

Jan 23 - Malaysia to buy more Indian sugar to resolve palm oil spat – sources
Malaysia's top sugar refiner said it will increase purchases of the commodity from India, which according to two sources is part of efforts to placate New Delhi amid an ongoing spat over palm oil imports. MSM Malaysia Holdings Berhad will buy 130,000 tonnes of raw sugar from India worth 200 million ringgit ($49.20 million) in the first quarter, the company told Reuters.

Jan 22 - Damage to Thai Sugar Crop Lifts Prices (WSJ)

Sugar prices are rising as damage to the crop in Thailand stokes competition among traders to secure the sweetener. Refined-sugar futures are 0.8% higher at $406.40 a metric ton in London, and raw-sugar futures are up 1.2% at 15 U.S. cents a pound in New York. Over the season as a whole, rainfall has been close to average in Thailand, the world's fourth-largest sugar producer. But most of the precipitation took place from August to mid-September, meaning water failed to get to the roots, causing plants to suffer during the dry months, Robin Shaw of Marex Spectron says. Serious damage has already been done to the current crop, and Shaw says it's vital that lots of rain falls at the end of the dry season in March.

Jan 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Despite a firmer pound sterling and although hedge sales against new origin deposits initially weakened prices, both markets recovered significantly during the day and closed together at long unseen highs, the May20 in London at GBP 2025 (GBP +25), NY was up $19 ($2836 May20). The Mar/May20 spread moved between GBP +7 and -2, while the Sep/Dec20 spread widened further (GBP +145). A bit worried on sees the growing open interest in the Mar20, around 3700 lots in the last two days alone, and this only 7 weeks before the Mar20 contract expires. News from the origin? Côte d'Ivoire asks the World Bank for help in the fight against cocoa farming in protected forests. According to its own estimates, about 40% (!) of the annual harvest come from these areas. From a fundamental point of view, this could have a bullish effect in the mid term...

Jan 22 - Ivory Coast asks World Bank for help eliminating illegal cocoa output
Ivory Coast has asked the World Bank for help in eliminating illegal cocoa output from protected forests and resettling people farming there, as it steps up efforts to both end deforestation and deter excess cocoa production. The world's top cocoa producer has introduced a fixed $400-a-tonne premium on its cocoa sales in a bid to combat farmer poverty, but wants to ensure that it does not lead to excess output, which could lower global cocoa prices.

Jan 22 - Tereos Commodities sugar unit director is leaving -sources
Alex Leite, executive director of French sugar group Tereos' sugar trading division, is leaving the company, two sources said on Tuesday. Tereos was not immediately available to comment.

Jan 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Without the participation of the New York market, the expected breathtaking in London occurred yesterday, or at least the "gasps" after last week's rally should have at least decreased. May traded in a GBP 16 spread and ended the day unchanged at GBP 2000, while the March / May 20 spread was again on the slightly weaker side with a discount of GBP -2. Open interest in London in March 20 increased by 3,600 lots on Friday alone, 8 weeks before the last trading day. Open interest in both markets increased by more than 44,000 lots last week alone! The specs / funds are still not interested in fundamental data at all...We take a positive view, as we are currently "only" GBP 30 above last year's range.

Jan 21 - Patchy rains boost Ivory Coast's cocoa mid-crop – farmers
Light showers in some of Ivory Coast's cocoa regions last week are likely to have boosted the April-to-September mid-crop, while heavier rain is needed elsewhere, farmers told Reuters on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is in its dry season, which runs from November to March, when rain tends to be scarce or light.
 
 

Jan 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The overall (just due to support from Asia (+8.7%) and Côte d'Ivoire (6+5%) only slightly positive grinding figures (total +1.5%) put the markets under pressure briefly on Friday, before the specs immediately compensated these fragile counter-reactions with new covers in both markets. Without any significant selling pressure, London reached new 3-year highs, the May 20 closed at GBP +52 exactly on the psychological resistance line of GBP 2000, and the Mar/May20 spread converged to just GBP 3 premium. The Com-mitments of Traders set a first sign with a net long position of 152,007 lots (+5,908), which is mainly due to the Managed Money buyers (90,195 /+13,022). However, these figures do not yet show the significant firming of over GBP 100 in the 2nd month experienced in the second half of the week. New York remains closed today due to Martin Luther King Day.

Jan 20 - Speculators swing to long position in sugar contracts - CFTC
Speculators swung to a long position in sugar futures and options, according to government data released on Friday, while also building on existing long bets in cotton and cocoa. Sugar speculators switched to a net long position of 35,987 contracts in the week to Jan. 14, adding 57,210 long contracts, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

 Jan 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

While the forward months saw some gains, May20 and Mar20 took a break, the Mar20 closed at GBP 1948 (GBP -8), but GBP30 below the daily highs. However, the 5 day long fix of over GBP 160 was broken, at least in the front sessions, and further back the prices continued to rise. London is clearly overbought, but is the correction coming? The structure has weakened slightly. Meanwhile, by the way, the funds are in a buying mood, with almost 11,000 lots in NY on Wednesday and almost 2.5k in London. The CCC in Côte d'Ivoire has continued to sell at these firm levels with pre-sales for 2020/21. Yesterday it was already reported to have reached over 700k mt. Nigeria is worried about the mid crop.  The German grinding figures in the 4th quarter of 2019 were slightly lower (-0.9%). We wish you a nice weekend.

Jan 17 - Brazil's 2020 coffee crop just shy of record as production area grows
Brazil's 2020 coffee crop is seen reaching a near-record volume as the area under production in the world's largest exporter grows for the first time since 2012, government agency Conab said in a study released on Thursday. In its first estimate for the new crop, Conab said Brazilian farmers would produce between 57.15 million 60-kg bags and 62 million bags, with the midpoint at 59.6 million bags.
 

Jan 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Similar to the previous day, it was another fixed opening in London. May 20 was a firm GBP 24 within the first few minutes and then consolidated at these levels for most of the time due to good hedging pressure from the origin. In the late afternoon, fresh longs in New York led to further highs. May 20 is powerfully feeding through the highs from mid November 19 (GBP 1970) and was close to breaking this important resistance with a high of GBP 1964. Closing price GBP +20 at GBP 1956. Due to the firm performance from NY to London closing, an opening of GBP +22 is expected. According to unofficial / unnamed sources, pre-sales for 20/21 (including LID) are over 700k mt in the CDI and over 280k mt in Ghana. If we compare this favourably with the figures from Jan 19 for the 19/20 crop, this is significantly higher than last year, where the estimated figures were 520 and 216k mt respectively.

 Jan 16 - Brazil looks to expand share in global coffee trade after 2019 record
Brazilian exporters believe they will increase their already large share in the global coffee trade in 2020, possibly exporting more than the record 2019 volume, due to an expected fall in output coming from other producing countries. Brazilian exports of green coffee reached 36.6 million 60-kg bags in 2019, a 14.8% increase from the previous year to an all-time peak, exporters association Cecafé said in a report on Wednesday.

Jan 15 - Sugar Prices Keep Rising, Encouraging Indian Shipments (WSJ DJ)

- Sugar prices continue to rise, driven higher by a shortfall in Asia and strong ethanol demand in Brazil. Raw-sugar futures are up 0.4% in New York at 14 cents a pound. Refined-sugar futures are 0.2% higher at $390.40 a metric ton in London. The strength of the commodity may surprise some given the scale of Indian stocks, although "it is important to remember that the bulk of this sugar is not deliverable against the No.5 white sugar contract" in London, Warren Patterson of ING says. The jump in prices is encouraging suppliers in India to export sugar, and if sustained "would help eat into the sizeable stocks the country currently holds, while also providing somewhat of a cap to world market prices," Patterson says.

Jan 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

And again London was on the rise, the fourth day in a row. Strong purchases of the Mar/May20 spread, which in the meantime widened to GBP +38 and closed at GBP 29, as well as strong grinding figures from Malaysia (+23.3% Q4) and finally a further expansion of the funds' long positions boosted the prices, in the first minute alone over GBP 20. In Côte d'Ivoire, too, local grinding continues to grow (+6.5% Q4), which is from now on further supported by tax advantages. May 20 closed at GBP 1935 (+ GBP 52). The inverse structure persists stoically: front +GBP 65 (Mar20), forward (Sep21) unchanged. In the long-term retrospective, the 2nd month still has some GBP 35 upside potential, up to around GBP 1970, which we saw in November 2019.

Jan 15 - Sugar's surge to two-year high has Brazilian mills considering output change
Brazilian sugar mills are considering increasing their raw sweetener output at the expense of ethanol for automobile fuels after sugar futures surged to a two-year high this week, analysts said this week. Raw sugar futures for March delivery in New York have climbed 9.1% since Jan. 2 after news of output declines in producers such as Thailand raised supply concerns amid an expected global deficit for the 2019/20 crop year that started in October.

Jan 15 - Suedzucker posts higher Q3 profit despite sugar losses
Suedzucker, Europe's largest sugar refiner, on Tuesday confirmed an improvement in quarterly earnings as stronger bioethanol demand helped offset continued losses from its sugar business. The company confirmed an operating profit of 39 million euros ($43.43 million) in the third quarter to November 30 against an operating loss of 23 million euros a year earlier.
 
 

Jan 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The weak British pound and negligible volume did not lead to a recovery yesterday. With a cable of 1.297, May 20 headed for the next resistance at GBP 1900. This barrier still seems to be holding and May recorded a high of GBP 1889, only hedging pressure from the origin, mainly against the front positions, held out for another breakout to the top. May 20 ended the day with GBP +13 at GBP 1883. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire at 1.259 mt vs. 1.235 mt (+1.9%) on 12.01.20. Brazil recorded weaker-than-expected Q4 grindings, down 5.11%. The ECA figures will be released on Friday and are expected to be unchanged to slightly negative.

Jan 14 - Ivory Coast cocoa belt sees dry week as harvest slows down
Ivory Coast's cocoa growing regions stayed hot and dry over the past week as the main crop harvest started to slow down, farmers told Reuters on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is in its dry season, which runs from November to March, when rain tends to be scarce or light.

 Jan 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The previous day's strong technical performance continued on Friday, taking May 20 to a new 5-week high of GBP 1880. May 20 ended the day in the upper third of the range at GBP +35 at GBP 1869, and both markets are now slowly moving into overbought territory, this coupled with a much weaker structure (March / May 20 spread traded down to GBP +12) and not much increasing open interest seems to be indicators that the market is moving too fast and violently. Commitment of Traders as of 07.01.20 show only a marginal reduction of the net long position of -440 lots. Combined, both markets have a net long position of 146,099.

Jan 13 - ICE sugar speculators raise net short position in week - CFTC
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) sugar speculators increased their net short position in the latest week, according to a U.S. government report released on Friday. The group increased its net short position by 10,665 contracts to 21,223 in the week to Jan. 7, according to the report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 

 
 
Jan 13 -
ICE delays London cocoa listing as it finalises rule changes

ICE Futures Europe said on Friday it had delayed the listing of the December 2021 London cocoa contract until March 17 as it finalises changes to grading and warehousing rules. The exchange sought feedback on its plans by Dec. 27 and had initially sought to list the contract on Jan. 17. "The exchange has received feedback on the proposals which is being incorporated into the changes," the exchange said in a circular on Friday.
 
 

Jan 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The 200-day moving average at GBP 1809, which has been mentioned frequently in recent days, was finally broken sustainably yesterday. While the market was still testing these levels in the morning due to currency factors, the specs came into the market just in time for the opening NY at 2 pm. The break through the resistance led to increased buy orders for fresh speculative longs and May 20 traded to a high of GBP 1839. Closing May 20 GBP +41 at GBP 1834. Next technical resistance is expected at GBP 1880 and GBP 1900. In addition, there were reports from Cameroon. Exports in December were up about 20% on the previous year.

Jan 10 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, week 06-10 January 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed a negative outlook. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,581 per Mt. In local currency, Malabar black pepper was traded at an average of RS 329 per Kg. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported stable at an average of USD 1,763 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,094 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysian black and white pepper were also reported steady with an average of USD 1,860 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,293 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 1,722 per Mt. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported steady at an average of USD 2,625 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper continued to be traded with a deficit and this week by 4% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,458 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 4,313 per Mt.
- International market also showed a negative outlook. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,859 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported steady with an average of USD 2,183 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,684 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l and 550 g/l were reported with a 1% deficit respectively as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 2,329 per Mt and USD 2,394 per Mt respectively. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 3,479 per Mt. In international market China was reported with the same 1 % deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 4,413 per Mt.

Jan 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the great volatility of the past few days, the market seems to have gained some stability yesterday. May 20 traded within a narrow range of GBP 16 and ended the day at GBP -7 at GBP 1793, with volumes again lean. The oft-mentioned 200 day moving average at GBP 1809 was tested again yesterday and did not break through, the longer we do not break through this resistance the more it gains in importance. Unofficial sources from the Ivory Coast are reporting a reduction in export tax for locally produced semi-finished goods. However, this should only affect companies / manufacturers who sign an "agreement" to this effect...and this will, one way or another, certainly have something to do with the Living Income Differential.

Jan 09 - ICO widens forecast for 2019/20 global coffee deficit
The International Coffee Organization (ICO), in a monthly update, widened its forecast for a global coffee deficit in the 2019/20 season to 626,000 60-kg bags from 502,000. Global production was seen falling 0.9% to 168.71 million bags and consumption climbing by 0.7% to 169.34 million, the ICO said in the update.
 

Jan 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The firmer pound sterling in the light of the Middle East conflict gave reason to expect a firmer opening, but little was happening at first. It was only after NY joined the market prices firmed by almost GBP +30 in the first minute. The May20 closed at GBP 1800 (+GBP 34), wiping out yesterday's losses. The Mar20/May20 spread widened again, to GBP 27 premium. Meanwhile, we are scratching the 200-day moving average, which has also recently marked a technical resistance level. Whether the steady liquidation of the net long position will thus come to an end for the time being remains questionable. If a firmer close yesterday causes further technical buying and the barrier of the 200-day moving average is passed, we see clear upward air.

Jan 08 - U.S. wine industry fears 'Armageddon of costs' from tariffs on French imports
U.S. consumers, companies and workers will pay the biggest price for proposed 100% tariffs on French Champagne and other sparkling wines, cheese, porcelain, enamel cookware and handbags, witnesses told the U.S. government on Tuesday. The U.S. Trade Representative's office last month proposed punitive duties on $2.4 billion in imports from France of sparkling wines and other goods after concluding that a new French digital services tax would harm U.S. companies.

Jan 08 - Sugar group Tereos to repay second half of 2020 bond in advance
French sugar group Tereos will repay the second half of its 500 million euro ($556.8 million) March 2020 bond on Jan. 21. The French group had repaid the first half a year in advance through a loan financed by BNP Paribas, Natixis and Rabobank.

Jan 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The further weak performance of the March / May spread, which converged from GBP +49 to GBP +15 within a few days, led to the corresponding countermovement yesterday. This, coupled with hedging pressure from the origin, caused the market to drop to a low of GBP 1763, closing May at GBP -25 at GBP 1771. Despite all the volatility and wide spreads, the market feels undecided. Next major support or buying interest should start on the lows just before Christmas at GBP 1728. We see technical resistance in the 200 day and 100 day moving averages at GBP 1794 and 1809 respectively. Commitment of traders as of 31.12.19 does not help the market to make decisions either, the net long position increased by 479 lots (LDN +618 / NY -139). Combined, both exchanges now stand at 146,539 lots net long.

Jan 07 - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers hopeful as Harmattan winds start slow
Cocoa farmers in Ivory Coast remain cautiously optimistic as the start of the seasonal dry Harmattan winds had not affected crops so far, they told Reuters on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is in its dry season, which runs from November to March when rain tends to be scarce or light. Rains last week in most of its cocoa belt were patchy, farmers said.

Jan 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

For long stretches it was a technically driven rise in prices. A generally firm commodity sector, driven by political tensions in the Middle East, helped the cocoa market break through the GBP 1800 level, good resistance was found in May 20 at the 50 day moving average at GBP 1826, peaked in May at GBP 1823. In the afternoon, after the opening of New York, good hedge pressure from the origin led to a correction and May 20 ended the day at GBP +1 almost unchanged at GBP 1796. Fundamentally, limited to cocoa, we can currently find no significant reason to explain the final rise above GBP 70, it remains to be seen how the industry will react after returning from the holidays this week. Commitment of Traders will be released today.

Jan 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It was a rough start to the new year in both markets. London sought and found good resistance at GBP 1794 (200 day moving average) and psychological resistance at GBP 1800. May 19 saw a high of GBP 1802 and ended the day, above the 200 day moving average, at GBP +15 at GBP 1795. New York broke through the last dominant moving average (50 days) at $ 2554, ending the day almost unchanged at $ 2539 ($-2) despite all this. If yesterday's move was mainly currency-related, it did send a signal to the gradual return of "holidaymakers" and we are back to mid-December levels. Purchases in Ghana as at 19.12 are at 456,701mt comfortably above the previous year (410,319).

Jan 03 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Report, week 30 Dec.- 03 Jan 2020 (IPC)
- Market at the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 showed mixed response with only Indonesia and Malaysia origins recorded an increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,627 per Mt. In local currency, Malabar black pepper was traded at an average of RS 330 per Kg. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 1,761 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,091 per Mt. The increase of Indonesia white pepper could be contributed to the increase of the price in local currency which averaging at IDR 43,000 per Kg. Malaysian black and white pepper recorded an increase of 1% respectively at an average of USD 1,860 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,292 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 1,738 per Mt. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported steady at an average of USD 2,626 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper continued to be traded with a deficit and this week by 3% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,607 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,338 per Mt.
- International market showed a rather stable outlook this week with only Indonesia origin recorded an increase. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,907 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported steady with an average of USD 2,181 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 3,680 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. In international market China was reported steady with an average of USD 4,438 per Mt.

Jan 03 - Costa Rica coffee exports dip nearly 10% in December
Costa Rican coffee exports fell 9.6% in December, the country's national coffee institute ICAFE reported on Thursday. Exports in December reached 35,790 60-kg bags, down from 39,576 bags during the same month in the previous year.

Jan 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Coverages, against presumably fundamental short positions, ensured a firmer year-end with low volumes. May 20 peaked at GBP 1785 and ended the day with GBP +17 at GBP 1780. Looking at last year's performance, cocoa was one of the quieter softs with an average gain of 5%, coffee performed much more impressively in 2019 with +27%. It is interesting to note that the closing price of the May 19 date was GBP 1785 on 31.12.18, so we ended last year where we "started". We would like to submit the Commitment of Traders figures as of 24.12. Here we saw a significant reduction in the number of longs of 17,357 lots (15,710 of which in NY alone). Combined, both markets now stand at a net long position of 146,060 lots.

Dec 31 - Commodity3 would like to thank you again this year for the trust you have placed in us and wish you all a happy, healthy and successful new year 2020 !

Dec 31 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Good hedge pressure from the origin provided at least a small countermovement yesterday after the rise on Friday. May 20 traded to lows of GBP 1758 and ended the day at GBP -17 at GBP 1763, with good support coming from the 10 day moving average at GBP 1761 and the March / May spread, which traded to a new high of GBP +55 (closing GBP +37). Despite all this, the market "feels" undecided and we are curious what the new year holds in store for us. Surely the headaches of 01.01. will not be the only ones in 2020...just look at the upcoming elections, implementation of the LID, the new potential West African currency and then there are the specs.

Dec 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Without a lively participation in the market after the holidays, last Friday was entirely in the hands of the "machines". The clear, currency-related, weaker expectation of GBP -30 was absorbed right at the beginning. Buying interest from shorts, especially in the front months, brought  May 20 to a high of GBP 1787, closing GBP +36 at GBP 1780. The March / May 20 spread widened further to a premium of GBP +42, on 16.12 it was still at a meagre GBP +3. A sign that we may see the same development in the structure as in the previous Dec / March spread. There is still a significant lack of activity / liquidity for the 20/21 campaign.

Dec 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

While London remained closed on Boxing Day, New York showed careful efforts at strengthening its position. However, hedge sales, albeit small, and presumably further long liquidation held up like lead, with NY closing at -$39 ($2411 May 20). The British pound remains "relatively weak", probably in the light of the short Brexit transition period. With the CCC players absent for holiday, reports from Côte d'Ivoire focus on the case of Guillaume Soro, ex-rebel leader and now presidential candidate, through and through with a real chance. But during his return flight to the CDI, an arrest warrant against him was suddenly issued, so he preferred to land somewhere else. That's one way to get rid of political opponents...

Dec 27 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 23-27 December 2019 (IPC)
- Market this Christmas week showed mixed response with rather negative outlook. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,686 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 1,754 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,042 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysian black and white pepper was also recorded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 1,747 per Mt. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported steady at an average of USD 2,625 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper was traded with a 3% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,713 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,350 per Mt.
- International market showed a rather stable outlook this week with only India origin recorded decrease. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,966 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported steady with an average of USD 2,171 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,624 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l and 550 g/l were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,345 per Mt and USD 2,410 Per Mt respectively. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 3,495 per Mt. In international market China was reported steady with an average of USD 4,450 per Mt.

Dec 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Now slowly a little peace is coming. On the back of a weakening British pound, however, the market did not firm until an hour before clos. May 20 date ended the day with GBP +17 at GBP 1751- Arrivals in the Ivory Coast as at 22.12 at 972,000mt vs. 958,000 from the previous year (+1.5%). London closes earlier today at 13:23 and returns to normal times on Dec 27.

Dec 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It is anything but contemplative these days in the cocoa market. The funds seem to be still in liquidation mode and once again brought the market to new lows of GBP 1729 / May 20. The industry also showed its strength in the market on Friday and stopped the further decline in prices. Closing May 20 GBP -9 at GBP 1734, London lost GBP 46 in total last week, while New York corrected down by US$ 150. Commitment of Traders at 17.12 (we have pointed this out several times) shows a massive reduction in the net long position from 30,800 lots, now down to a still firm 163,417 lots net long !

Dec 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Quotations in London dropped yesterday breaking through the recently established lows. Had it not been for the noticeably weaker British Pound, the decline would probably have been even more substantial. Support was found around GBP 1760 basis May20, albeit at low volumes. May 20 ultimately closed at GBP 1743, or GBP-27 after all. Meanwhile, sales in NY picked up considerably, which suggests that a liquidation of the long position is continuing and could also strengthen. The Mar/May20 spread narrowed again. From the two major origins we can hear that the crop development is well on track, Ghana just under 40,000mt above last year, but in which the past crop started later. And also the Côte d'Ivoire reports increasing volumes.

Dec 20 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 16-20 December 2019 (I.P.C)

- Market this week showed mixed responses with India and Viet Nam origins recorded with an increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,746 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 1,750 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,035 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysian black and white pepper was traded negatively with 1% and 2% decreases respectively as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 1,840 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,258 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 1,764 per Mt. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported steady at an average of USD 2,626 per Mt. After the continuous increasing trend lately, Sri Lanka black pepper was traded with marginal decrease and was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,822 per Mt. In the past four weeks China white pepper was continuously reported with a deficit and this week it was reported with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,350 per Mt.
- International market reacted rather stable this week with only India recorded an increase. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 5,027 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported steady with an average of USD 2,167 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,616 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable at an average of USD 2,330 per Mt, USD 2,395 per Mt and USD 3,480 per Mt respectively. In international market China was reported with a higher deficit by 3% as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 4,450 per Mt.

Dec 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Even though it felt like "more", the market seems to be consolidating at current levels for the time being. The May 20 traded in a range of GBP 25 and ended the day slightly weaker at GBP -7 at GBP 1770. Despite all the movements of the last 4 days, the weighted average is at GBP 1769.55 and thus pretty much at yesterday's close.
From the fundamental side, news reached us that Côte d'Ivoire had entered into an agreement with a Chinese company to build warehouses, infrastructure etc. in the two ports. Reminds us of the first thoughts to build a buffer stock in the origin. However, the market considers the feasibility to be more than questionable.

Dec 19 - Uganda coffee exports up 7% year-on-year in November 
Uganda's coffee exports rose 7% in November from the same month last year, boosted by favourable weather and traders releasing higher volumes to meet outstanding obligations for the year, according to a report by a state-run sector regulator.  The east African country shipped 438,815 60-KG bags of the beans, up from 409,940 bags exported in same month a year ago, the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) said in the report seen by Reuters on Thursday.

Dec 19 - Indian sugar exports poised to hit record 5 mln tonnes this year 
India, the world's biggest sugar producer, is poised to break its own export record this year thanks to a flurry of overseas sales in the past few months, prompted by attractive global prices, trade and industry officials said on Tuesday. Sugar mills in India have done deals to export 2 million tonnes in the new season that began on Oct. 1, 2019, raising hopes that the country would sell at least 5 million tonnes on the world market in the 2019/20 season, nearly a third higher than the previous year.

Dec 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Also yesterday the Longs seemed to be further in the "liquidation mode". A slightly firm opening was followed by a steady downtrend and May 20 traded to a new 14 week low of GBP 1757. This resulted in increased industrial activity and coupled with a weakening British Pound the market strengthened. Closing May 20 GBP +13 at GBP 1777. The levels around GBP 1750 seem to provide good support, here is our trend line from April 19 (see chart), which also correlates with the 75% retracement level of the highs from mid-November. Yesterday was the deadline for the Commitment of Traders figures for the report on Friday, the market is curious how they will turn out. Even so shortly before Christmas one is well advised not to ignore the market..

Dec 18 - India Oct.1-Dec. 15 sugar output falls 35% y/y - industry body 
Sugar mills in India, the world's biggest producer of the sweetener, produced 4.58 million tonnes since the season began on Oct. 1, 2019, down 35% year-on-year, an industry body said on Wednesday. Between Oct. 1 and Dec. 15, 406 sugar mills produced 4.58 million tonnes of the sweetener against 7.05 million tonnes churned out by 473 million mills during the year-ago period, the Indian Sugar Mills Association said in a statement.

Dec 18 - Chocolate makers hobble Ivory Coast, Ghana cocoa premium with discounts 
Ivory Coast and Ghana's move to combat farmer poverty with a living income premium for their cocoa sales is being undermined by chocolate makers scaling down purchases and negotiating discounts on other parts of the price, sources said. Confectioners publicly backed a move by the two countries, which together account for 60% of global cocoa supply, to introduce a $400 a tonne living income differential (LID) or premium in July on cocoa sales for the 2020/21 season.

Dec 18 - Brazil's 2019 coffee crop revised up to 49.31 mln bags -govt 
Farmers in the world's largest coffee producer harvested 49.31 million bags in 2019, said Brazil's food supply and farm statistics agency Conab on Tuesday, revising slightly up its view from 48.99 million bags projected in September. The change was mainly due to robusta coffee production, which was revised up to 15.01 million bags from 14.52 million bags seen in September, while arabica coffee output was reduced to 34.30 million bags from 34.47 million bags, the agency said in a report. 

Dec 18 - Brazil's 2019-20 cane crush seen up, ethanol output rises - Unica 
Brazil's 2019-20 center-south cane crush is expected to rise to 590 million tonnes, cane industry group Unica said on Tuesday, 2.9% higher than the previous season.  Unica said the larger crush is due to favorable weather conditions over most of the year, which led to an average agricultural yield gain of 4.2% to 76 tonnes per hectare.

Dec 18 - Brazil to promote ethanol in Bolsonaro visit to India - Unica 
Ethanol will be one of the main items on the agenda of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's official visit to India in January, sugar and ethanol industry group Unica said on Tuesday. Unica's head, Evandro Gussi, said the Brazilian government will discuss ways to assist India in boosting its ethanol program, such as increasing production and blending ethanol with gasoline, which could help reduce the country's sugar stocks and boost global prices for the sweetener.

Dec 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The cocoa market is very active before Christmas. The industry showed itself again yesterday with inquiries and partly also with contracts in the market. It is remarkable that there are even bigger "gaps" for deliveries in the first 9 months in 2020! The arrivals in the Ivory Coast on 15.12.19 are with 883.000mt just above the previous year, here it was 878.000mt. With a minus of GBP 27 = GBP 1768 (March20) the market closed and remains thus further above the upward line existing since March 2019

Dec 17 - Ivory Coast's cocoa belt welcomes rain ahead of Harmattan winds 
Farmers in Ivory Coast's cocoa-growing regions welcomed heavier-than-usual rainfall after weeks of hot and dry weather had threatened the main crop, they told Reuters on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is in its dry season, which runs from November to March when rain tends to be scarce or light.

Dec 17 - Brazil sugar hedging increased in Nov, but still below last year 
Sugar hedging through New York futures by Brazilian mills increased in November because of a weaker currency and higher New York prices, but the hedged volume is still below the level seen at this time last year, Archer Consultancy said on Monday. By the end of November Brazilian mills had hedged 5.48 million tonnes of sugar using New York contracts, a volume equivalent to 28% of expected exports in the 2020-21 season, an Archer report said. That compares to 6.86 million tonnes of hedging at the same time a year earlier, or 32% of exports.

Dec 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Thestrenght of the British pound overnight caused the announced weaker opening, although at GBP 10 it was significantly less than some had expected (GBP -36). May 20 saw further lows of GBP 1758, with a firm New York market and strong buying interest from industry leading to a market rally. May 20 ended the day with GBP +5 at GBP 1787. Commitment of Traders show, as at 10.12.19, a reduction in the net long position by 3,176 lots and this now stands by, still proud, 194,217 lots. It is noteworthy that the Specs within Managed Money in Lodnon have liquidated over 9,500 lots and 1,200 lots of new shorts came into the market. A further reduction can be expected after last week's movements.

Dec 13 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 9-13 December 2019 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed responses with Malaysia and China origins recorded decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,717 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported with an increase of 3% and 1% respectively as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,748 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,033 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysian black and white pepper was traded with 1% decrease as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 1,865 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,334 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper was reported steady and unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper reported an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 3,858 per Mt, recording the highest average price of the year. Whilst, China white pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,388 per Mt.
- In international market, the trend also showed mixed responses as only China recorded decrease. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,999 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported with the same 3% and 1% increase respectively as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 2,164 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,613 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l, and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged. China was reported with the same 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 4,588 per Mt.

Dec 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

On the last trading day of Dec 19, the journey to the south continued due to further liquidations of the longs. March 20 broke through the support levels at GBP 1800 and GBP 1794, which were lately mentioned, and signed a new 12 week low of GBP 1784. Closing GBP -23 at GBP 1789. Dec 19 finally left the board with a premium of GBP +55, but only a marginal tender can be expected. The industry showed itself yesterday strengthened with price hedges in the market. Boris Johnson's clear victory yesterday put the EUR under strong pressure this morning (0.8331) a weaker opening can be expected (call based on closing NY GBP +9).

Dec 13 - Brazil's 2019 coffee crop revised down, end-stocks cut -report 
Brazil's 2019 coffee crop was revised down to 57.05 million 60-kg bags from 58.9 million bags seen in April, consultancy Safras & Mercado said on Thursday, projecting a tight stocks situation in Brazil until the next harvest around May. The consultancy projects end-stocks from the 2019 season at only 2.32 million bags, compared to 3.17 million bags a year earlier. It said coffee farmers have sold 71% of their 2019 coffee so far, above the five-year average of 68% for this time of the year.

Dec 13 - Ivory Coast farmers push back against cocoa output cap 
Cocoa farmers in Ivory Coast say they plan to ramp up production and establish new plantations, potentially jeopardising a new policy to cap output and boost prices from next year.  The West African country's cocoa regulator (CCC) said in October it would cut production from 2.2 million tonnes to 2 million tonnes from next season in a bid to deter farmers from overproducing after Ivory Coast and neighbouring Ghana introduced a plan to raise farmers' income.

Dec 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Towards noon on yesterday's trading day, slight hedge pressure and another strong British Pound put pressure on prices. The support for GBP 1820 mentioned yesterday fell and the market was on its way to the next barrier at GBP 1805. March 20 tested this and recorded lows of GBP 1807, closing at GBP -17 at GBP 1812. Should the psychological support for GBP 1800 be breached, the 200 day moving average at GBP 1793 should provide the next support.
Today at noon the Dec 19 date is off the board, the Dec / March spread lost nearly GBP 100 yesterday and traded down to the close of GBP +53. The open position is still a good 12k lots, tomorrow we will know more about what was actually taken. An eye is naturally on the elections of our British friends today and the influence on the British pound...

Dec 12 - French beet growers see smaller crop, sugar output on weather woes 
French sugar beet growers estimated this year's sugar beet crop at 38.3 million tonnes on Wednesday, down from 39.6 million harvested in 2018, as weather woes hurt crop development in Europe's main producer. This would lead to a production of white sugar of 5.0 million tonnes in the 2019/2020 season, down from 5.1 million in 2018/2019, and around 10 million hectolitres of bioethanol, stable compared with last season, growers group CGB said at a news conference.

Dec 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Two days before the last trading day of the Dec 19 date, a correction of the volatile Dec / March 20 spread occurred yesterday, at least in the short term. This collapsed within minutes from GBP +148 to GBP +90 (exit of the last longs?), this took advantage of the probably last shorts and this spread catapulted back up to GBP +150. With an open interest of a good 13k lots and just under 1.5 days it could lead to even greater volatilities. March 20 was looking for and found good support at GBP 1820, which also marked yesterday's low. Closing GBP -13 at GBP 1829, below the 100-day moving average of GBP 1836 for the first time in a long time. The industry showed itself to be reasonably active again with price hedges in the market. Next support we continue to see at GBP 1820 and 1805 (lows from early November).

Dec 11 - USDA leaves 2018/19 domestic sugar outlook unchanged, raises 2019/20 outlook 
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Tuesday left its outlook for sugar stocks this year unchanged and slightly raised its outlook for the 2019/20 crop year. The USDA left the closely watched stocks-to-use ratio for 2018/19 at 14.5% last month. The department put the ratio at 13.5% for 2019/20 compared with its forecast of 10.5 last month.

 
 Dec 11 -
Brazil's sugar production falls 36% late in November, says Unica 

Brazil's center-south region produced 337,000 tonnes of sugar in the second half of November, 36% less than in the same period a year earlier, as cane crushing also fell and mills favored ethanol production over the sweetener. According to a report by cane industry group Unica on Tuesday, mills crushed 10.8 million tonnes of cane in the center-south late in November, 25% less than in the same period a year earlier. Ethanol production increased by 3% to 770 million liters. 

 
Dec 11 - Brazil's coffee shipments plunge 22% in November -exporters 
Brazilian coffee exporters shipped 2.8 million 60-kilogram (132-pound) bags of green coffee to foreign markets in November, 22% less than in the same month a year earlier, exporters association Cecafé said on Tuesday. Exports of arabica coffee fell 22% as well, to 2.59 million bags, while shipments of robusta coffee fell 13% to 204,694 bags, Cecafé said. Brazil harvested a smaller crop in 2019, and supplies of high-quality, export-type coffees were even smaller.

Dec 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the strong performance of the quotations on Friday, the expected counter-movement took place yesterday. This was more laborious / tired / calmer etc. than expected. March 20 closed the gap between GBP 1850 / 1854 at noon. Found good support towards 100 days moving average at GBP 1836 / low GBP 1841. Closing GBP -19 at GBP 1842. It continues to depend on the usual factors...What do the Specs, with their still massive, long position, how does the British Pound react to the elections (here influence on the markets is expected only on Friday) and how does the Dec 19 on 12.12 leave the board? The industry is more preoccupied with these circumstances than expected and continues to hold back on the sidelines. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire are 787,000mt vs. 785,000mt (+0.3%). Reports from Nigeria about a crop collapse of about 30% are viewed with "mixed feelings".

Dec 10 - Colombia launches plan to guarantee sustainable coffee production 
Colombia, the world's top producer of washed arabica, on Friday laid out what it called a road map to guarantee sustainable production of coffee for the next decade, with plans to increase quality and output. As part of its "Plan 2030," the Andean country will also renovate more plantations and establish additional hedging options for times of low prices.

Dec 10 - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers happy with crop but worried over heat 
Mainly below average rains last week in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa regions had farmers worried about the rising heat, despite a good soil moisture content, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is now in the dry season, which runs from November to March when rain is scarce or light.

Dec 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Lack of liquidity (hedge pressure from the origin) in the opening finally let the market open at GBP +32. At the highs of the day, GBP 1894 / March 20, the longed-for hedge pressure and slight profit-taking by the longs then set in. Closing price March 20 GBP +17 at GBP 1861. Chart-wise a GBP 4 gap has opened in March, between GBP 1850 / 1854, which is closed from the technical side gladly. Commitment of Traders as of 03.12 shows a marginal reduction of the net long position of just 2,104 lots. However, during the last reporting period the market lost GBP 78 or US$ 91. Combined we still see a combined net long position of 197,393 lots. On Thursday the 12.12. Dec 19 leaves the board, the near Dec / March traded curiously on Friday on a new high of GBP +142. Here we can certainly expect further activity.

Dec 06 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, week 2-6 December 2019 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed responses with India and China recorded decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded negatively with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,647 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 4% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,702 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 3,014 per Mt. Malaysian black and white pepper was traded steady at an average of USD 1,878 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,380 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper was also reported steady and relatively unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper showed a strong outlook with an increase of 8% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 3,825 per Mt, recording the highest average price of the year. Whilst, China white pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,425 per Mt.
- In international market, the trend also showed mixed responses with only India and China recorded decrease. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,926 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with the same 4% increase as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 2,111 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported steady with an average of USD 3,591 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l, and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable, averaging at USD 2,320 per Mt, USD 2,385 per Mt and USD 3,470 per Mt respectively. China was reported with a 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 4,625 per Mt.

Dec 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday morning, the British Pound continued to put pressure on the market. March 20 looked for and found good support from the 100-day moving average at GBP 1837, yesterday's low at GBP 1833. In the afternoon, some industry activity, as well as fresh longs in New York, provided the corresponding counter-movement. March 20 London ended the day with GBP +2 at GBP 1844. New York slightly broke out of the sideways movement, closing US$ +33 at US$ 2580. The London structure continues to cause massive confusion. The Dec 19 / March 20 spread recorded GBP +140 new highs, while the March / May spread converged to a low of GBP +2 (closing GBP +10). Next bigger support we see at GBP 1820, then the path would be "technically clear" to GBP 1790. However, please do not neglect the relatively short price coverage (7-7.5 months), which should at least slightly stop/break a massive correction.

Dec 06 - Quality coffee shortage trips up funds to send prices soaring 
A shortage of high quality arabica coffees has boosted spot prices in Central America, Colombia and Brazil, catching speculators who bet on falling futures prices by surprise. Traders and analysts say the shortage is a major factor behind the surge in arabica prices on ICE Futures U.S., which have catapulted some 25% since mid-October amid a scramble for exchange certified 'washed' or quality arabica stocks.

 
 
Dec 06 - Diseases raise concerns for Ivorian cocoa main crop outlook 
Ivorian cocoa farmers have grown more concerned about the 2019/20 main crop as diseases known as black pod and swollen shoot spread in cocoa plantations, farmers and exporters told Reuters on Thursday. While the October to March main crop was previously expected to match the 2,2 million tonnes produced last year in the world largest cocoa producer, exporters and pod counters now say production could fall 5%.
 
 

Dec 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The continuously strong British Pound put further pressure on prices yesterday. On the back of GBP vs. EUR exchange rates that we have not seen since May 2017, March 20 traded at lows of GBP 1840, found good support towards the 100-day moving average at GBP 1837 and ended the day at GBP -19 at GBP 1842. London now lost GBP 130 from the highs we recorded in November. New York was much calmer and consolidated to current levels after the second Inside Day in a row. Closing price March 20 US$ -18 at US$2547. With the upcoming elections in UK and the Dec 19 in London coming to an end, expected and certainly an interesting week in cocoa.

Dec 05 - Colombia wants to boost premium for its coffee by a third in 2020 
Colombia will seek quality premiums of 40 cents per lb for its coffee in 2020, up from about 30 cents now, hoping to generate sufficient profits for the country's farmers, the finance minister said on Wednesday. Growers in the Andean country, the world's top producer of washed arabica, have weathered two years of crisis as low international prices sent farmers' incomes below production costs. 

 
Dec 05 - Cargill invests over $113 million in Ivory Coast, Ghana cocoa sector 
Global commodities trader Cargill said on Wednesday it is investing more than $113 million to expand its cocoa processing facilities in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, creating 85 direct and hundreds of indirect jobs. Cargill, one of the world's largest agricultural traders, said it is also investing $12.3 million to expand sustainability and supply chain tracing programmes in the west African nations.
 
 

Dec 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The momentum of the beginning of the week was absolutely no longer noticeable yesterday. In a narrow range, prices showed a generall laziness. After NY opened, London at least tested Monday's lows (GBP 1856 Mar20), although they soon found your support there. Closing Mar20 was trading at GBP 1861. The still considerable speculative long position of 199,000 lots (!) in a persistently inverse structure seems to last, but occasional downward corrections by profit taking are to be expected. Overall, however, we are recording a longer upward trend, which is currently being tested by rather weaker prices. Côte d'Ivoire is currently waiting with pre-sales of the current crop due to uncertainty about the volume of the main crop.

Dec 04 - Barry Callebaut cites progress in helping cocoa farmers tackle child labour 
Swiss cocoa products maker Barry Callebaut said on Tuesday that 26% of the farmer groups from which it sourced products in 2018/2019 had programmes to prevent child labour, more than double the figure from the previous year. Barry Callebaut, whose largest shareholder is the billionaire Jacobs family, added it would eradicate child labour from its supply chain by 2025 and aim for all its ingredients to be from sustainable sources by that point.

Dec 04 - India's Oct-Nov sugar output drops 54% as mills delay crushing - ISMA 
Indian mills produced 1.9 million tonnes of sugar between Oct. 1 and Nov. 30, down nearly 54 percent from a year earlier, with many yet to start crushing operations, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said on Tuesday. The country is the world's biggest sugar producer and lower output could support global prices.

Dec 04 - Without urgent action, yearly extreme heat waves await Europeans 
Europe faces the prospect of severe heat waves every year and a halving of some of its harvests in the future unless rapid action is taken against climate change, a study said. The report, by the European Union environmental agency (EEA), foresees that uncontrolled climate change will cause extreme heat waves every year in a continent where France and Spain this year experienced their highest temperatures since records began. 

Dec 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A lack of hedge sales initially led to a firm opening in London. March 20 traded at a peak of GBP 1898, albeit with low turnover. In the afternoon, with the start of trading in New York, the sellers in the market then showed up stronger. Technical chart points were breached and at the end of the day was a minus of GBP 21 = GBP 1860. A look at the chart shows the next support should start at GBP 1820 (March 20). The "Commitment of Traders Report" as of 26.11.19 shows a net long position which rose by 6,765 lots to a total of 199,497 lots! Perhaps yesterday's "small" correction was a first sign for beginning profit taking of the "long".

Dec 03 - Honduran coffee exports jump nearly 44% in November 
Honduran coffee exports rose 43.6% in November on the strength of planned orders from international buyers, most filled with bags from last season's crop, national coffee institute IHCAFE reported on Monday. Central America's top coffee producer and exporter reported shipments of 163,540 60-kg bags for the month, the second of the current 2019/2020 harvesting season.

Dec 03 - BP, Bunge complete Brazil deal to form world's No.2 cane processor 
British oil major BP Plc and U.S. commodities trader Bunge Ltd announced on Monday the completion of a deal to combine their sugar and ethanol operations in Brazil, creating the world's second largest cane processor. The 50-50 joint venture BP Bunge Bioenergia, which will manage 11 plants in five Brazilian states with a total capacity to crush 32 million tonnes of sugarcane per year, will rank only behind Raízen, the joint venture between Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Brazilian energy group Cosan SA.

Dec 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It was the end of an unspectacular week in which the highs were tested again. Friday evening brought a lower close of GBP 1881 Mar20 (GBP-19). Essentially this was probably driven by the expected beginning liquidation of the net long position of the Managed Money fraction, which could continue this week and which may have also benefited from a strong GBP. Meanwhile in London, 275 lots were graded, including another BDU (1000mts) Cameroon. Thus in London only about 113,000 mts now have valid certificates. Meanwhile, Ghana reports that pre-sales of 200,000 mts with LID for 2020/21 were made. Furthermore, the 2018/19 harvest closed with a deficit of 21,000mts according to the ICCO Bulle-tin, whereas a surplus of 18,000mts was expected.

Dec 02 - ICCO sees global cocoa market flipping into deficit in 2018/19 season 
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) on Friday forecast a global cocoa deficit for the 2018/19 season, having previously forecast a modest surplus. The inter-governmental body estimated there will be a deficit of 21,000 tonnes in 2018/19 (October/September), having previously forecast a surplus of 18,000 tonnes.
 
 

Nov 29 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 25-29 November 2019 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed responses with only Malaysia and China recorded decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded positively with an increase of 3% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,676 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 1,632 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,016 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysian black and white pepper was traded negatively with a 3% and 2% deficit respectively as opposed to previous week at an average of USD 1,877 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,378 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper was reported steady and relatively unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper continued showing a strong outlook this week with an increase of 14% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 3,536 per Mt. Whilst, China white pepper was reported with a 2% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,488 per Mt.
- In international market, the trend also showed mixed responses with only China recorded decrease. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 3% increase as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,956 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported steady with an average of USD 2,031 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,593 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l, and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable as the market slowed down, averaging at USD 2,324 per Mt, USD 2,389 per Mt and USD 3,474 per Mt respectively. China was reported with a 2% deficit as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 4,688 per Mt.

Nov 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

While US colleagues yesterday focused on turkeys rather than cocoa, London's prices stagnated very undecidedly, with the British pound firmer and more than moderate volume in a narrow range (GBP 16) around the unchanged mark. This was due on the one hand to a lack of influence from origin and, of course, the New York market, which remained closed on Thanks-giving. Towards the end of the trading session, the March 20 contract attempted a "breakout" to the south, but quickly ended at GBP 1894. The end was at GBP 1900 Mar20 (GBP+1). In this situation one can hear speculations on the basis of crystal balls, which perhaps already today, otherwise at the beginning of next week expect significantly higher activity.

Nov 29 - Brazil to produce record coffee crop despite weather - Rabobank

Brazilian farmers are expected to produce a record coffee crop in 2020, surpassing a previous all-time high reached in 2018, as output is seen reaching 66.7 million 60-kg bags, Dutch bank Rabobank projected on Thursday. Rabobank's coffee analyst Guilherme Morya told reporters during an agricultural outlook seminar in Sao Paulo that unfavorable weather in some parts of Brazil's coffee belt, such as dry spells in September and October, would be offset by production from new areas.

Nov 29 - Sugar group Tereos expects visible improvement in H2 results 
French sugar group Tereos SA expects to report improved results in the second half of 2019/20, driven by higher prices for both sugar and ethanol, Chief Executive Alexis Duval said. "We do not give guidance for the second half but we do anticipate to have a visible improvement in our results," he said in an emailed response to questions about the outlook for the company.

Nov 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The firm performance of the previous day was paid tribute yesterday. A mix of hedge pressure from the origin and profit taking of the longs, before today's holiday in the USA, led to the corresponding counter-movement. March 20 fell to a low of GBP 1890 in the afternoon, but failed to maintain psychological support of GBP 1900. Closing GBP -39 at exactly GBP 1900. New York ended the day at $-59 at $2597. Was the outbreak on Tuesday just a "fake" and how does London perform today without its counterpart in New York? It is finally back to life in the cocoa market. Fundamentally there is little worth mentioning to report.

Nov 28 - Colombia's coffee growers must focus on quality to lock in profits - federation
Colombia's coffee farmers must reduce production costs and increase the quality of their beans next year if they want to assure profitability, the head of the National Federation of Coffee Growers said. Growers in the Andean country, the world's top producer of washed arabica, have weathered two years of crisis due to low international prices. 

 Nov 28 - Germany's Nordzucker expects a return to profit in 2020/21 – CEO
Germany's second largest sugar refiner Nordzucker expects to turn a profit in 2020/21 after a major cost overhaul and plans further expansion beyond Europe after its recent investment in Australia, the chief executive said. The company's projected return of profitability could signal a change in fortunes for an industry mired in losses since the liberalisation of the European Union sugar sector in 2017 that left producers exposed to a depressed world market.

Nov 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Finally, yesterday the lethargy finally broke out. A little more familiar hedge pressure from the origin in the morning followed after the opening of New York new / fresh speculative longs and provided a firm afternoon. March 20 traded to the peak of GBP 1951 and ended the day at GBP 1939 at GBP +25. New York, the aggressor among the two markets, ended the day at $+58 at $2656, leading to an increase in arbitrage around GBP 25. London is now GBP 121 below NY on the second month. Dec / March 20 weakened and ended the day at GBP +118.

Nov 27 - ISO sees global sugar deficit of 6.12 mln T in 2019/20
The International Sugar Organization on Tuesday raised its forecast for a projected global sugar deficit in the 2019/20 season to 6.12 million tonnes from a previous projection of 4.76 million. The inter-governmental body forecast global production falling by 3.12% to 170.40 million tonnes while consumption was seen rising by 1.32% to 176.52 million.

Nov 27 - Frozen harvest leaves bitter taste for U.S. sugar beet farmers
Weather during harvest season in the U.S. Red River Valley, a fertile sugar beet region in Minnesota and North Dakota, has to farmers felt like a series of plagues. Rain and snow pelted crops in September and October. That was followed by a blizzard, and then warm temperatures that left fields a boggy mess. Next came a deep freeze, ruining the underground sugar beet crop, and dealing a harsh blow to farm incomes.

Nov 26 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday, consolidation continued at current levels. Uninspired, March 20 traded around the GBP 1919 mark in a GBP 13 range and manageable volume. Not even New York managed to break the current lethargy. March 20 closing at GBP -4 at GBP 1914...
Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire are 607,000mt vs. 625,000 from the previous year (-2.9%).
The New York market will be closed on Thursday (Thanksgiving).

Nov 26 - Ivory Coast farmers say more rain needed to maintain cocoa conditions
Below-average rainfall mixed with sunny spells in most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa regions last week has helped growing conditions, farmers said on Monday, though they warned more rain would be needed next month as temperatures rise. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is in the dry season, which runs from mid-November to March, when rain is scarce or light.

Nov 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Also on Friday last week the same picture. Light hedgepressure and some new longs completed the picture of the second half of the week. March 20 was trading in a range of GBP 18 and ended the day at GBP -4 at GBP 1918. Although it "felt like more" the market lost just GBP 11 (at Monday's close) last week. Commitment of Traders as at 19.11. shows a further expansion of the net long position from 8,028 lots to 192,732 net long lots. Remarkably, New York gained almost 10 times (7380 vs. 648 in LDN) and within Managed Money even 16,034 lots. The question is, when will the bigger windfalls come? Unlikely if the structure remains massively inverted...but hope dies last as we know.

Nov 25 - ICE coffee speculators increase net short position in latest week – CFTC
Speculators in ICE coffee and cotton increased bearish bets in the market in the latest week, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Meanwhile, sugar speculators trimmed their net short position and cocoa speculators raised their net long position in the week to Nov. 19.

 
 Nov 25 -
Heavy rains hit French sugar beet harvest, other producers faring better

Heavy rains are hampering the sugar beet harvest in France, Europe's top producer, and could hit next year's plantings, but other major European Union producers have not been hurt by the downpours, industry experts said. Rainfall increased by 40% over the monthly average for France in October, according to public weather service Meteo France, while frequent showers are forecast to return next week after a drier spell early this month.

Nov 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It repeats itself daily, a firm opening was followed by slight hedge pressure from the origin. Although yesterday it was much lighter, the net turnover was just 1000 lots until noon. March 19 broke through the first technical support at GBP 1919, looked for and found the next at GBP 1900 (low GBP 1899), then buying interest started and the market ended the day with GBP +2 at GBP 1922. The Dec / March spread also provided a firmer afternoon with a new high of GBP +127. Yesterday was the 5th day in a row with lower highs, possibly a slight damper for the big bulls among us. Purchase figures from Ghana at 163,162 mt (0.45%) are marginally higher than last year (162,419 mt), but this year was reported of a slightly delayed startof the crop.

Nov 22 - Coffee Rallies for Second Day, Up Near 5%
Coffee futures on the Intercontinental Exchange are up 4.8% Thursday at $1.16 per pound, making for a 9.8% rise in the past two days. The short-term reason: the apparent withdrawal of inventories from the ICE. In the past two weeks, on-exchange inventories of coffee have fallen by 77,868 lots, according to exchange data. The biggest declines in inventories are seen in Honduras, India, and Uganda. "It might have created some of the buying mode," says Rodrigo Costa, director of trading at Comexim USA.

Nov 22 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, 18-22 November 2019 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed response with only Indonesia and Malaysia recroded decreses. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with an increase by 2% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,523 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 1,632 per Mt. Whilst Indonesia white pepper took a dive with a 9% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 3,015 per Mt, recording the lowest price of Muntok white pepper in the past year. The significant decrease in price of white pepper in Indonesia could be contributed to market being flooded by product. Thus, pressuring the price in the local currency to an average of IDR 42,500 per Kg from IDR 46,500 per Kg in the previous week. Malaysian black and white pepper was also traded negatively with a 2% and 1% deficit respectively as opposed to previous week at an average of USD 1,930 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,433 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported an increase by 2% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 1,740 per Mt whilst Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable and unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper showed a strong outlook this week and returned to be traded at an average above USD 3,000 per Mt with an increase by 7% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,093 per Mt. Whilst, China white pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 4,563 per Mt.
- In international market, the trend also showed mixed response with only Indonesia recorded decrease. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 2% increase as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,801 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported steady with an average of USD 2,031 per Mt. Whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported with an 8% deficit as compared to previous week at an average of USD 3,592 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase by 3%, 3% and 2% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,326 per Mt, USD 2,391 per Mt and 3,476 per Mt respectively. China reported a stable international trade for its white pepper with an average of USD 4,763 per Mt.

Nov 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Same game. Firm opening, soon shattered by hedge sales against original covers. The March20 contract tested technical support at 1910, but could not break through, and closed at GBP1920 (GBP -9). In London, a striking number of AA's were posted during the day, 6,167 Dec19 and 7,124 Mar20, indicating further position shifts across the Dec19/Mar20 spread, which continued to run on premium (+GBP 116). It can be assumed that the market structure will remain inverse and that the next downward correction will not put too much pressure on the market, as the Mar/May spread was already trading at GBP 46 premium. Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana are currently waiting with new sales for 20/21 as well as 19/20. Probably due to the slightly weaker differentials.

Nov 20 - Coffee Futures Bounce Back, Rise Over 3.8%
After coffee futures on the Intercontinental Exchange took a 3-cent dive yesterday, they've regained that loss and more today. Coffee futures have jumped to over $1.10 a pound today, a 3.8% uptick. The tightness of world coffee supplies appears to be a force driving the price higher, keeping them at levels last seen in July.

Nov 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the sharp rise in prices last week, not much has happened on the cocoa market. A small fine correction was followed, once again, by this unspeakable sideways movement. March 20 traded in an uninspiring GBP 16 range and ended the day unchanged at GBP 1929. In times of LID, firm differentials, short global price coverage, a clearly inverse structure and a comfortable net long position of a good 1.8 million mt all (fundamental) market participants ask themselves the question...What is the true value of cocoa at the moment?

Nov 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Hedging pressure from the origin, a strong British Pound and the "usual Monday" reaction to the Commitment of Traders figures led to a weaker daily performance. March 20 sought and found good support at GBP 1920 and ended the trading day at GBP -15 at GBP 1929. It remains to be seen whether the market will break its "pattern", which has been ongoing since October: Monday down, Tuesday up. If the structure continues to be so inverse, a major downward correction cannot be expected for the time being and a collapse of the near Dec / March spread is not coming yet. It reached a new high of GBP +113 yesterday!
Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire are 518,000mt vs. 531,000mt / -2.4% YoY as of 17 November.

Nov 19 - Head of agriculture at French sugar group Tereos to leave – sources
he head of agriculture at French sugar group Tereos is leaving the company, sources close to the matter said on Monday, the latest in a series of top management changes at the group in recent months. Tereos Agriculture Director Herve Nouvellon announced his departure to several members of the cooperative on Monday, the sources said. 

 
 Nov 19 -
Suedzucker closing Antwerp export office, focuses on EU

Suedzucker, Europe's largest sugar refiner, said on Monday it will close an export sales office in Antwerp, Belgium as part of its strategy to concentrate on business in the European Union market instead of sales outside the EU. The company said earlier this year it was focusing on EU domestic sales rather than selling for export at current depressed world prices. 

 
Nov 19 - Ivory Coast hot and humid weather boosts cocoa crop – farmers
Above average rainfall mixed with heat last week in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa growing region will boost the quality of the crop, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is in the dry season, which runs from mid-November to March, when rain is scarce or light.
 
 

Nov 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It was a mixed trading day last Friday. Light hedge pressure near the highs (GBP 1955 / March 20) and fresh buying on the lows (GBP 1935) alternated. The Commitment of Traders Report as at 12.11.19 showed the expected expansion of the net long position of over 15,000 lots. This paired with a reduction of the gross short position within Managed Moeny of over 5,000 lots clearly shows who has set the market direction in recent weeks. New York was clearly on a firm course on Friday and recorded a new high ($2692), closing March at $20 + $12 at $2681

Nov 18 - Speculators raise bullish cocoa bets - CFTC
Speculators increased their bullish bets on cocoa in the latest week, according to data from the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission issued on Friday. 
The group increased its net long cocoa position by 8,966 contracts to 21,291 in the week ended Nov. 12. Meanwhile, the group cut its net short position in ICE coffee by 23,181 to 16,700 lots. Sugar net short positions were also cut by 26,674 to 172,993 in the week. 

Nov 18 - French sugar group Tereos's loss narrows as prices recover
French sugar group Tereos posted a narrower loss in the first half, thanks to an improved second quarter as global prices recovered from a historic low and pointed to a better price outlook for the rest of the year. The group's debt level, however, rose by 400 million euros ($440.8 million) from a year earlier to 2.7 billion euros despite positive income of 215 million euros from its asset swap with Italian group ETEA earlier this year. 

Nov 15 - Coffee Cools After Month-Long Rally
Coffee futures on the Intercontinental Exchange have leveled off after spending most of the past month on the rise. From Oct. 15 to Nov. 7, coffee futures climbed 17.6% to a nearly 3-month high near $1.18 per pound. Since then, coffee has softened, with the contract down Friday by 1.4% to $1.10 per pound. The pullback is technical, says Adam Tuiaana of RJO Futures--with the global supply picture growing increasingly tighter amid weather issues in Brazil.

Nov 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Fresh speculative longs led the market, once again, to a new 18-month high. March 20 traded up to GBP 1970 and feeds on the high from May 2018 at GBP 1978. Due to the bank the volume was due to further Dec / March spread trading, the spread traded up to GBP +110! closing price March 20 GBP -9 at GBP 1946 In New York this very spead shot at a premium of US$ 98, yesterday it was still US$ +19. Interesting since today First Notice Day for the Dec 19 date in New York, it remains to be seen whether someone will actually pick up cocoa there.
The ICCO expects, until 2020/21, a deficit of 50.000mt, it remains to be seen that the main harvest will only really start now. We wish you a nice weekend and hope to be reachable again on Monday, until then please use the known mobile numbers.

Nov 15 - Weekly Intl Pepper Market Report, week 11-15 November 2019 (IPC)
- Market this week showed stabe outlook with only India and Sri Lanka reported an increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with an increase by 3% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,438 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 1,635 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,305 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysian black and white pepper was also reported stable with an average of USD 1,968 per Mt and USD 3,475 per Mt respectively. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper was reported stable and unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper showed a strong outlook this week with an increase by 6% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,889 per Mt. Whilst, China white pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 4,560 per Mt.
- In international market, the trend showed a stable outlook with only India recorded an increase. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 3% increase as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,717 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported steady with an average of USD 2,034 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,916 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged. China reported a stable international trade for its white pepper with an average of USD 4,760 per Mt.

Nov 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday the same game continued. A moderate phase of weakness at the beginning was followed by a further rise in prices. March 19 broke through the July highs at GBP 1939 (2-month continuation) and traded at new 18-month highs of GBP 1963. Next resistance was then to set in at the May 2018 highs at GBP 1971. Once again the Dec / March spread was the trigger for yesterday's firm performance, which traded up to a premium of a proud GBP +115. It seems as if one or the other had speculated heavily and hoped for a turn in the structure. Closing price March 20 GBP +21 at GBP 1955.

Nov 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It was a toxic / brutal mix that catapulted the market to new highs yesterday. First attempts to explain: In the morning there was a bigger turnover of the Dec 19 / March 20 spread, here fundamental participants rolled their hedge from Dec into March, the spread shot up at a premium of GBP +107, the longs in Dec (funds?) did not let the shorts out of their position.  After the opening of New York, the tense market was joined by new speculative longs (to be seen in the next COT Report), which led to a breakthrough of the July and October highs (GBP 1920). This continued to spur the longs on and March 20 traded high at GBP 1939, closing at GBP +76! At GBP 1934. volume combined about 180k lots, this should go into the top 5 of traded volumes. The origin was restrained in the market and led to another massively inverse structure. Ghana already reported to have pre-sold 200,000mt from 20/21 (incl. LID).

Nov 13 - Dreyfus sugar unit Biosev posts quarterly loss of $73 mln 
Biosev SA, the Brazilian sugar and ethanol unit controlled by commodities trader Louis Dreyfus, posted a net loss of 304 million reais ($73.01 million) in the last quarter, 95% larger than a year earlier, the company said on Tuesday. The company said costs to service its large debt, associated with Brazil's currency devaluation and smaller sales of sugar, were the main factors behind the larger net loss in the quarter.

Nov 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The firm performance of Friday failed to continue, the weak opening was compensated after half an hour. But price hedging sales and missing spec buying did the rest, causing significant weakness. Support came at the 20-day average (GBP 1849 Mar 20); March 20 closed at GBP 1858 (GBP -10). The Dec19/Mar20 spread continued to widen to a new high of GBP 87. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire reached 84k mts last week, about 4k mt behind the previous year, but this is said to be due to the ongoing heavy rainfall throughout West Africa, with also Nigeria reporting higher levels of mould. All this is still no reason for concern, as the dry season is approaching and a good harvest is expected.

Nov 12 - Brazil's center-south ending sugar season earlier due to dry weather
Brazil's center-south is approaching the end of this year's sugarcane season much earlier than expected, as drier-than-normal weather during most of the last weeks sped up harvesting and led to several mills announcing the end of crushing. The main Brazilian sugar belt crushed 32.6 million tonnes of cane in the second half of October, 30% more than in the same period a year earlier, a similar quick-pace performance seen in previous two-week periods.

 
 
Nov 12 -
Ivory Coast drier spell, sun boost cocoa crop - farmers 

Below average rainfall mixed with long sunny spells last week in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa regions will improve growing conditions after weeks of wet weather, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is entering the dry season, which runs from mid November to March, when rain is scarce or light.

 
 
Nov 12 - Ghana to finalise $600 mln cocoa loan package this week 
Ghana's cocoa regulator will this week finalise a $600 million loan to finance new warehouses, rehabilitate plantations and support the processing sector, officials said on Monday. Under the deal, the world's No.2 cocoa producer Ghana sought $250 million from development finance institutions led by the African Development Bank (AfDB), while Credit Suisse Group AG was charged with lining up $350 million from commercial lenders.

 
 
Nov 12 -
Cuban leaders rally sugar workers to produce more with less 

The Cuban sugar harvest gets underway next week with officials blaming stepped-up U.S. sanctions for shortages of everything from fuel to tires and calling on workers to produce more with less in response. Cuba, desperate to increase exports amid a liquidity crisis, plans to produce around 1.5 million metric tons of raw sugar during the harvest, Reuters estimates, based on nine local media reports of provincial plans and previous production in the remaining five sugar-producing provinces.

 
Nov 12 - Swiss coffee lovers win reprieve over plans to scrap bean stockpile
The Swiss government has woken up and smelled the coffee, delaying a final decision on its plan to scrap the nation's strategic bean reserve after the proposal prompted public and industry jitters. The government steamed up coffee lovers in April when it said it would no longer stockpile coffee, which it has done for decades along with sugar, edible oils and animal feed, after concluding the low-calorie beverage was not vital for life and so did not need to be stashed in case of crisis.

Nov 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It was a steady bullish move on the last trading day of last week. March 20 climbed leisurely to 10 week highs and in the last hour set new highs at GBP 1874 due to new speculative purchases. Closing price GBP +40 at GBP 1868. The long-term March 20 / March 21 spread also set a new high with a premium of GBP 174, by the way the highest premium of an annual spread since July 2010 (we remember darkly the squeeze at that time). There is certainly the danger of a further expansion here, as we assume that the origin has by no means reached the target of up to 1 million mt of marketing for the 20/21 harvest. Commitment of Traders as of 05.11.19 shows the first smaller reduction of the long position (-3,160 lots) since more than 2 months.

Nov 11 - ICE sugar speculators increase bearish bets in latest week - CFTC 
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) sugar speculators increased their net short positions by 30,636 lots to 222,648 in the latest week, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Speculators also increased their net shorts on cotton by 1,469 lots to 6,098 in the week ended Nov. 3.

Nov 11 - USDA raises 2018/19 domestic sugar stocks outlook, cuts 2019/20 
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Friday slightly raised its outlook for sugar stocks this year, but lowered its outlook for the 2019/20 crop year. The USDA slightly raised the closely watched stocks-to-use ratio for 2018/19 to 14.5 from 14.04 last month. The department put the ratio at 10.5 percent for 2019/20 compared with its forecast of 14.52 last month.

Nov 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

An unchanged opening was followed, technically, by a day to forget. March 20 traded sleepy, within a GBP 10 range, around the 100 day moving average at GBP 1829 and ended the day at GBP +1 at GBP 1828. New York was much more active at least in spreads, with the First Notice Day on 15.11, and ended the day at $ -22 at $ 2450. Ghana's end-October buying figures at 128,514 mt were well above last year, up from 119,894 mt a year earlier.

Nov 08 - Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 4-8 November 2019 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with an increase by 2% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,296 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 1,641 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,317 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysian black and white pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 1,971 per Mt and USD 3,479 per Mt respectively. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper was reported stable and unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper slightly strengthen, in local market it recorded an increase by 1% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,736 per Mt. Whilst, China white pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 4,578 per Mt.
- In international market, the trend showed a stable outlook with only India recorded an increase. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 2% increase as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,578 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported steady with an average of USD 2,042 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,931 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported stable and unchanged averaging at USD 2,250 per Mt, USD 2,315 per Mt and USD 3,400 per Mt respectively. China reported a stable international trade for its white pepper with an average of USD 4,778 per Mt.

Nov 08 - Global sugar market to move into modest deficit in 2019/20 - U.N FAO
Global sugar production is set to fall 2.8% to 175.1 million tonnes in 2019/20, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday. Global sugar consumption would fall 1.4% 177.5 million tonnes over the period, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said.

Nov 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Without any significant highlights, the current sideways movement continued yesterday with a downward trend. March 20 was trading with manageable volume in a range of GBP 20, closing at GBP -11 at GBP 1827. With little reported value coming from the fundamental side, market participants continue to focus on speculative activity. The roll of the Long Specs in London seems to be underway, as indicated by the 2000 lot shrinkage in the Open Position in Dec 19. Opposed to this, across the board the Open Position rised by almost 2700 lots...a sign of new / fresh longs. In line with this, the Dec 19 / March 20 premium expanded from GBP 50 to GBP 62. The guesswork continues unabated. Next support we see GBP 1820 and GBP 1800, below GBP 1800 should be some sell orders from speculators and could lead to a jerk down. Even in noticeably "quiet" periods one should not ignore the quotations...

Nov 07 - Brazil cancels decree barring sugarcane cultivation in the Amazon 
Brazil has canceled a 10-year-old ban on sugarcane cultivation in its Amazon rainforest and central wetlands, the government gazette said on Wednesday, a move environmentalists criticized as another assault on the country's sensitive ecosystems. The government said the decision, signed by President Jair Bolsonaro and the ministries of economy and agriculture, was taken because the 2009 decree was obsolete and other regulatory instruments, such as the new forest law and the RenovaBio program, were more efficient for this type of oversight. 

 
Nov 07 - Barry Callebaut sticks to sales growth target after solid full year 
Barry Callebaut, which makes chocolate and cocoa products for firms like Nestle and Unilever, stuck to a sales volume growth target of 4-6% over the next three years, counting on new outsourcing deals to fuel growth. Although global chocolate confectionery consumption is only growing slowly, Barry Callebaut said its focus on outsourcing contracts and emerging markets allow it to outperform the market. A weakness in its business with chefs and artisans would quickly be fixed, it added.

 
Nov 07 - Top producers of natural rubber see 800,000 T output drop in 2019 
Top natural rubber producers Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia forecast an 800,000-tonne drop in output this year, the International Tripartite Rubber Council (ITRC), which represents the three, said on Wednesday. The lower estimate comes amid concerns about fungal disease spreading through plantations in the three Southeast Asian neighbours, which produce 70% of the world's output.

Nov 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Another copy of the previous day: Weak opening with a persistently firm GBP against the EUR, then a short and unsuccessful testing of the highs of Monday, followed by a decline to the 50-day average just to close unchanged with low volumes over the day (GBP 1838 March 20). So further sideways which really doesn't help anyone, especially the specs. The Dec19/Mar20 spread narrowed slightly from GBP 70 to a low of GBP 50 premium. What do we hear from the origin? More rain with late crop, so farmers need longer drying time of the fresh beans. At the moment, therefore, there is allegedly still too little cocoa that would meet the qualitative export requirements of the CCC. Only in the west the beans are significantly better. Apparently up-country high premiums are being paid for good beans (which is actually forbidden by the CCC). In addition, carry-over lots from the Mid Crop. Thus, exporters to keep an eye on quality.

Nov 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A slightly weaker opening was followed by a day of market consolidation. March 20 in London traded in a range of GBP 19 and ended the day unchanged at GBP 1838. The near Dec 19 / March 20 spread widened to GBP +71 and targets its highs of GBP +80 from early October. Many market participants are wondering whether a significant weakening of prices is in sight, with such a firm near spread. It remains to be seen when the big funds in London will start to roll their long position. Market turnover for October 19 vs. October 18: London +25.9%, New York +3.7%. In any case, both markets have liquidity more than enough. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as at 03.11.19 were 362,000mt vs. 333,000 from the previous year, +8.7%.

Nov 05 - Tereos names Europe sugar head as overhaul continues
Tereos, one of the world's largest sugar makers, said on Monday it had appointed Olivier Leducq as head of its European sugar activities, adding to management changes at the French group that has been grappling with a severe market downturn. Leducq has been Tereos' head of sugar for France since 2015 and for the UK since earlier this year, the group said in a statement.

Nov 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

London continued its current phase of weakness immediately after its opening. March 20 tested the next big support at GBP 1800, low GBP 1805, but did not break through. In the afternoon, both markets were clearly strengthened and London ended the day with GBP +22 at GBP 1838, New York $+55 at $2501. Last month the market lost around GBP 120, but there was still no major liquidation of the long position. As at 29.10, these had increased again by 8,172 lots and combined both markets are now at 172,852 lots net long! The industry is still waiting and waiting for the profit taking of the longs...

Nov 04 - ICE sugar speculators decreased bearish bets last week
CE sugar and coffee speculators decreased their net short position last week, while speculators in cotton increased their net short position and cocoa speculators raised their net long position, according to government data issued Friday. Sugar speculators decreased their net short position by 4,039 contracts to 211,500 in week to Oct. 29, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Nov 04 - Decade-long drought in Chile wipes out hives as bees are left without flowers
Beekeeper Pablo Alvarez squats beside his backyard hives and points upward into a cloudless Chilean sky. Bees come and go along the line he signals, flying in unison as if riding an invisible highway in the air. This season, traffic is way down, Alvarez says.

Nov 01 - Int'l Pepper Market Weekly Report, Week 28 Oct-01 Nov 2019 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed response with a rather static outlook. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,202 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 1,639 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,313 per Mt for white pepper. Farmers in Lampung were reported to hold selling their pepper in the hope of better price. Malaysian black and white pepper was also reported stable at an average of USD 1,993 per Mt and USD 3,505 per Mt respectively. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper was also reported stable and unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper continuously moving up, in local market it recorded an increase by 2% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,708 per Mt. Whilst, China white pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 4,595 per Mt.
- In international market, the trend also showed mixed response. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,484 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported steady with an average of USD 2,040 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,926 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported stable and unchanged averaging at USD 2,250 per Mt, USD 2,315 per Mt and USD 3,400 per Mt respectively. China reported a stable international trade for its white pepper with an average of USD 4,795 per Mt.

Nov 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

And yet a first sign of an incipient liquidation of the net long position? After an unchanged opening, London showed a clear southbound correction in the afternoon, with quotations based March 2020 breaking through the 50-day average (GBP 1819). With a range of GBP 62, March 20 closed at GBP 1816 (-30) and also set the pace for the forward months, which also lost (GBP -16 basis Mar 21). A swallow does not make a bearish summer, but a first "seal" seems broken. Paired with the reported reports about 450,000mts of cover for 2020/21, the hedge could finally manifest itself. The Côte d'Ivoire reports +9% in bean exports in the past crop year (1,575 million mt), products at +2% (442 tmt).

Nov 01 - China's Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange eyes coffee, peanut futures 
China's Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will speed up preparations to launch soda ash, coffee and peanuts futures among others, an executive from the bourse said on Thursday. The exchange will also accelerate the listing of purified terephthalic acid (PTA), methanol and rapeseed meal options, its deputy general manager, Wang Xiaoming, said at an industry conference in Shanghai.

Nov 01 - India's sugar output seen falling, global deficit rises - FCStone 
India's 2019-20 sugar production should fall to 26.9 million tonnes, 1.3 million tonnes below an August projection, due to unfavorable weather conditions, broker and analyst INTL FCStone said on Thursday. The production drop in India will lead to a larger global sugar supply deficit in 2019-20 of 7.7 million tonnes, a development seen as crucial in reducing large stocks in some producing countries that have been pressuring international prices, it added.

Oct 31 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

While the forward dates remained relatively stable, the nearby months came under pressure: In the first 60 minutes, Mar20 lost GBP-17, mainly due to hedge pressure against origin cover. Support came close to the 40-day average at GBP 1844 (Mar20); recovery before NY brought London back under pressure with weak opening. The end was at GBP 1846 Mar20 (-GBP 12), the Dec19/Mar20 spread converged to GBP 50. Blueprint of previous day's picture: up and down, on net further sideways. We'll see how long the longs look at this. The open interest continues to rise, which at a first glance would speak against a reduction of the still considerable net long position. At some point a correction will take place. For the German players today and/or tomorrow is a holiday.

Oct 31 - Brazil to remain net ethanol importer; U.S. fuel to supply Northeast - Platts 
An ethanol production increase expected for Brazil, the world's second largest market for the biofuel, will not be enough to cope with rising demand and the country will continue importing fuel from the United States to cover the shortfall. According to analysts from S&P Global Platts, demand for ethanol in Brazil will increase around 2.5% per year in coming years, due to a new federal policy to boost use and to the price advantage over gasoline in the local market. That means the country will need 5 billion liters more through 2025.

Oct 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It was a constant "up and down" on yesterday's trading day, albeit with very low turnover and a narrow range of GBP 1846/1864 (March20). At the beginning of the day there were smaller hedge sales against cover-ups from the origin, on the lows there was little buying interest of the speculators which brought the market towards the daily high. At the end of the day the GBP 1858 was the same closing price as the day before. Believing the news from the origin, the Ivory Coast sold about 450,000 mt of the 2020/21 harvest by 28.10.19. At the end of September 2019 a sales figure of 40.000mt was announced! The question arises, where is the "hedge pressure" with these huge quantities? Ghana will be added, but there is no information about the sold quantity. From a technical point of view, the market continues to move within the bandwidth that has been maintained since mid-June (see chart) A breakout out of this bandwidth is only approaching (see chart) where will the journey take us......time will tell us.

Oct 30 - Russia's 2019 sugar output to reach record high - ministry 
Russia is expected to boost production of sugar to more than 7 million tonnes in 2019, a new record, Deputy Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said on Tuesday. The country has doubled sugar output over the past 10 years to reduce its reliance on imports and began exporting a couple of seasons ago, mostly to nearby former Soviet republics.

Oct 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Rather unspectacularly, the opening fell short of expectations at +10 GBP and moved sideways through the morning. Every attempted bullish move was wiped out by a lack of volume and weekend-based hedges against cover-ups. The March 2020 closed at GBP 1858 (+ GBP 4). But new from the source: Unnamed sources from Côte d'Ivoire are reporting pre-sales of 450k mts for the 2020/21 crop after last week's 100,000mts. Another 100k mts seem to be about to be closed. With assumed prices around 1650-1700 CFA (~GBP 2.200) not only the LID of $400 would have been covered, but also a high differential (+GBP 140-190 CIF). Ghana is also said to have sold 100k mt. The plan of the two biggest origins seems to work out. For comparison: In the last crop a similar level (600.000mt) was reached only in February. The interesting question is whether price hedging is still due and puts pressure on the market ?...

Oct 29 - Ivory Coast farmers worry about impact of heavy rains on cocoa crop 
Above-average rains in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa growing regions last week have raised concerns about the quality of the beans because of high moisture levels, farmers said on Monday. The marketing season in Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, opened in early October with a new farmgate price of 825 CFA francs ($1.40) per kg set by the government.

Oct 29 - BP still aiming to close Brazil deal with Bunge in 2019 
BP Plc is still looking to close its deal with Bunge Ltd to merge sugar and ethanol assets in Brazil in 2019, so the companies can go on to plan their operations together for the new cane season that starts in early 2020. BP's chief executive for biofuels, Mario Lindenhayn, told reporters on the sidelines of Datagro's sugar conference in Sao Paulo the oil major was just waiting for the green light of antitrust bodies in three countries, including China, to close the deal.

Oct 29 - COFCO expands ethanol capacity in Brazil; sees sugar prices flattened
Chinese commodities trader COFCO International is investing in its cane processing plants in Brazil to expand ethanol production, as it expects that next season the fuel will again give better returns than sugar. COFCO is building new distillation columns and tanks at three of its four plants in Brazil, to increase ethanol capacity, the company's global head of soft commodities Marcelo de Andrade told reporters during the sidelines of Datagro 2019 International Conference on Sugar and Ethanol.

Oct 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It was a peaceful end of the week in cocoa. March 20 was trading at a lean volume, at a peak of GBP 1872, closing at GBP -6 at GBP 1854 and thus an almost unchanged end to the week, as we started the week on Monday with a closing price of GBP 1840. The Dec / March spread showed an impressive performance last week, from GBP +40 to GBP +72 back to GBP +59 on Friday. Commitment of Traders on 22.10.19 was also unimaginative, a plus of 1,158 lots in the net long position (164,410 lots net long) does not indicate a big change. One of the big pressers (Olam) is said to have completed the first big deal for the 20/21 harvest from the IVC. More than 100.000mt are reported and more should follow, as the CCC plans to realize between 700-800k mt of forward sales by the end of 2019.

Oct 28 - Olam buys 100,000 T 2020/21 cocoa with LID - CCC sources 
The Cocoa Coffee Council (CCC) has signed a block deal with Olam for the sale of 100,000 tonnes of cocoa export contracts for the 2020/21 season including a Living Income Differential (LID), sources at CCC told Reuters on Friday. Ivory Coast and Ghana announced in July that all cocoa purchases for the 2020/21 season must include a LID of $400 a tonne in a bid to tackle pervasive farmer poverty.

Oct 28 - Suedzucker raises earnings outlook on better ethanol demand; sugar still weak 
Suedzucker, Europe's largest sugar refiner, on Friday raised its forecast of operating profits in its current financial year as environmental concerns have boosted demand for biofuel ethanol enough to partially offset weakness in the sugar sector that is slumping due to a global glut of the sweetener. “We are seeing robust demand for bioethanol in several European countries,” a Suedzucker spokesman said. “In the current debate about protecting the climate, the message is getting through that bioethanol is a good method of reducing CO2 and dust emissions in cities.”

Oct 25 - Int'l Pepper Weekly Market report, Week 21-25 October 2019 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with a 4% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,254 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with a 1% deficit when compared to the previous week with an average of USD 1,636 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 3,307 Mt. Malaysian black and white pepper was reported stable and unchanged at an average of USD 2,002 per Mt and USD 3,517 per Mt respectively. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper was also reported stable and unchanged averaging at USD 1,702 per Mt and USD 2,626 per Mt respectively. Sri Lanka black pepper steadily moving up, in local market it recorded an increase by 2% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,654 per Mt. Whilst, China white pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 4,600 per Mt.
- In international market, the trend also showed mixed response. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 4% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,536 per Mt. Following the trend in local market Indonesia black pepper was also reported with a 1% deficit when compared to the previous week with an average of USD 2,036 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 3,919 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with a decrease by 3%, 3% and 2% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,250 per Mt, USD 2,315 per Mt and USD 3,400 per Mt respectively. China reported a stable international trade for its white pepper with an average of USD 4,800 per Mt.

Oct 24 - As population grows, human diet must cut down on meat, sugar, salt - Nestlé exec
Nestlé SA, one of the world's largest food processors, believes population growth will require human diets to adapt, reducing consumption of sugar, salt and meat products, an executive said on Wednesday. "We have 7.5 billion people and the population continues to grow, so there is a need to eat more vegetables, cereals, and less sugar, meat products," said Laurent Freixe, Executive Vice President and head of operations in the Americas.

Oct 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Not much news on the cocoa market. March 20 traded in a range of GBP 20, finding good support again at 100 days moving average at GBP 1828 / low GBP 1826. Closing price slightly firmer at GBP +9 at GBP 1843. The Dec 19 / March 20 spread widened, peaking at GBP 20 to GBP +52. First news from Berlin: The CCC and Cocoa Board continue to adhere to their implementation strategy of the LID, but now we are talking about a "co-existence" of the LID and the existing sustainability programs. A suspension of one's own initiatives seems to be off the table for the time being. However, the recent past has shown us that the origin is always good for a surprise.

Oct 24 - Biofuel groups file petition challenging Trump administration's small-refinery waivers
Biofuels groups have filed a petition in the U.S. court of appeals in Washington against the Environmental Protection Agency, challenging the agency's process for granting refineries exemptions to the nation's biofuel blending mandates, the groups said Wednesday. The petition, filed by groups such as the Renewable Fuels Association, the American Coalition for Ethanol, and Growth Energy, challenges the EPA's process for granting waivers to 31 oil refineries for 2018. The biofuels industry has criticized the Trump administration for expanding the number of waivers granted in recent years, claiming the exemptions undercut demand for fuels such as corn-based ethanol.

Oct 24 - Manure, trash and wastewater: U.S. utilities get dirty in climate fight
Joey Airoso has always been proud of his cows, whose milk goes into the butter sold by national dairy company Land O'Lakes. Now he has something new to brag about: the vast amounts of gas produced by his 2,900-head herd is powering truck fleets, homes and factories across the state of California. "It's pretty incredible if you think about it," Airoso said during a recent tour of his 1,500-acre (607-hectare) farm, as a stream of watered-down manure flowed from cow sheds into a nearby pit. There the slurry releases methane that is captured and eventually piped into fueling stations and buildings.

Oct 24 - Ivory Coast, Ghana lift threat to cocoa sustainability schemes
Top cocoa producers Ivory Coast and Ghana said on Wednesday that chocolate makers would continue for now to be allowed to run sustainability schemes in their countries, linking them to the success of a programme to ease pervasive farmer poverty. The future of the schemes had appeared to be in jeopardy when the two nations said earlier this month they would be re-examined as chocolate makers had been slow to pay a living income differential (LID) for bean purchases. 

Oct 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After a series of volatile days trapped in a sideways movement, yesterday marked the fifth weaker closing price in a row. The 100-day moving average at GBP 1827 provided good support again. March 20 was trading at lows of GBP 1824, closing at GBP -6 at GBP 1834. All in all, it was a day to take a breath or the calm before the storm as all market participants wait for more fresh tradable news from London (Brexit) or Berlin (WCF Meeting)...

Oct 23 - U.S. court strikes down Trump's first trade deal, a U.S.-Mexico sugar pact 
A judge with the U.S. Court of International Trade has struck down the Trump administration's 2017 revisions to a sugar trade pact with Mexico that limited imports of refined sugar into the United States, ruling that the changes were "unlawful." In a court document dated Oct. 18, Judge Leo Gordon ordered the U.S. Commerce Department's 2017 amendments to a trade deal to be immediately vacated.

Oct 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A mixture of the strong British pound and profit taking by the longs caused the market to trade lower in the first few minutes. March 20 lost close to GBP 30 at times and is on its way to the first major support at GBP 1826 / 100 day moving average. Low GBP 1828, close GBP -17 at GBP 1840. New York ended the day at $-7 at $2506 / March 20 and is still trapped in the current sideways trend and certainly a clear sign that the markets are currently being driven by British policy. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire on 20.10.19 are 208,000mt vs. 178,000mt from last year, a gain of 16.9%. Tomorrow the meeting of the World Cocoa Foundation begins in Berlin, announcements of the origin are to come to changes in the sustainability sector.

Oct 22 - Ivory Coast dry spell, sun to improve cocoa main crop - farmers
Lighter rains mixed with sunshine across most of Ivory Coast's cocoa-growing regions will boost the October-to-March main crop after weeks of heavy rain caused disease to spread, farmers said on Monday. The marketing season in Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, opened in early October with a new farmgate price of 825 CFA francs ($1.42) per kg set by the government.

Oct 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report
A firm first half of the last trading day saw quotations rise by GBP 15 to highs of GBP 1884. With New York fully in play, good hedge pressure put both markets under pressure. March 20 LDN broke through Monday's Lows (GBP 1850) and found support at its low of 25.09.19 at GBP 1839. But how could it be otherwise...in the last hour of Friday afternoon the markets recovered thanks to fresh new speculative longs. March 20 closed GBP -9 at GBP 1857. New York tested the upper end of the $2568 range that was ultimately seen, showing highs of $2560 only to end the day with $+2 at $2513. Commitment of Traders seems to have taken out a bit of the "gas", with a net gain of +8,171 lots certainly one of the quieter weeks. Combined, both markets now show an impressive speculative long position of 163,252 lots of net long!!

Oct 21 - Hedge funds increase bearish sugar positions - CFTC
Hedge funds and other money managers increased their net short position in sugar on the Intercontinental Exchange in the latest week, according to data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. Speculators also raised bearish positions in arabica coffee, trimmed their net short position in cotton and increased bullish wagers on cocoa.

Oct 21 - Brazil's No. 1 coffee co-op says 2019 coffee crop basically sold out
Cooxupé, the world's largest coffee cooperative and Brazil's No. 1 exporter, said on Friday it had basically sold all of its supplies in contracts with deliveries extending out as far as May or June next year. Cooxupé's head of trading Lucio de Araujo Dias said the company met "surprising strong demand" recently, and it would face difficulties forming new lots for new orders from now on, despite Brazilian farmers having just finished harvesting the 2019 coffee crop.

Oct 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

In spite of all the volatility, the market remained trapped within the known range yesterday. The approaching "agreement" between the EU and the UK led to a significant appreciation of the British Pound against the EUR and the US$, and on the back of the currency the market temporarily lost GBP 20 and traded at a low of GBP 1861. The market closed March 20 at - GBP 9 at GBP 1866. The North American grinding figures were published after trading hours. With -7.39% clearly below expectations! If a slightly negative figure hadn't caused anyone any headaches, this is a small surprise and the lowest figure for Q3 since 2009! Let's see if the markets react today...

Oct 18 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Report, Week 14-18 Oct 2019 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with a 2% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,442 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase by 2% and 1% respectively with an average of USD 1,660 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,321 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysian black and white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 2,002 per Mt and USD 3,516 per Mt respectively. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper was also reported stable and unchanged averaging at USD 1,702 per Mt and USD 2,626 per Mt respectively. Sri Lanka black pepper steadily moving up gradually, in local market it recorded an increase by 1% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,608 per Mt. Whilst, China white pepper recorded a 1% deficit when compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,610 per Mt.
- In international market, the trend also showed mixed response. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 2% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,722 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported with the same increase by 2% and 1% respectively. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with a decrease by 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,326 per Mt, USD 2,391 per Mt and USD 3,476 per Mt respectively. Whilst, China traded its white pepper in the international level with an average of USD 4,810 per Mt or a decrease by 1% when compared to the previous week.

Oct 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Have the grinding figures published so far made an impression on the market...? No, neither the very good figures from Malaysia nor the disappointing figures from Europe were able to influence the market. Since 25.9.19 prices have been moving in a range of GBP 1853-GBP 1918. The structure continues to play the longs into the pockets of additional profit as their position rolls, so why sell? The current hope for a correction would be a longer lasting sideways movement, which might encourage one or the other longholder to sell. Closing yesterday at GBP 1875 / - GBP 12.

Oct 17 - Subsidy helps India traders sell sugar to Iran - sources
Indian mills are aggressively selling old season sugar to Iran after New Delhi announced a subsidy to help cash-strapped mills export a surplus, five traders said, as Tehran strives to secure food supplies under U.S. sanctions. Exports from the world's biggest sugar producer could put pressure on global prices but will help India reduce its inventories that have driven down domestic prices.

Oct 17 - Cargill names new Brazil leader Sousa to replace Pretti
U.S. Commodities trader Cargill Inc on Wednesday said Paulo Sousa would lead the company's operations in Brazil, taking over as president on Dec. 16 as Luiz Pretti prepares to step down. Sousa will also retain his position as head of Cargill's South American agricultural commodities division, which he has led since 2016, the company said.

Oct 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Grinding figures Q3 19 vs. Q3 18:

ECA -0.05% / GER -2.65% / IVC +11.18% / Malaysia +49.85%

In the first half of yesterday's day, London made approximately 60% of the losses from the previous day gone again. Only the strong British Pound proved to us a rise above levels of GBP 1900, which also marked yesterday's high. The closing price then "only" GBP +25 at GBP 1887 and range seen in the end, with high volatilities, continues to hold. Not surprisingly yesterday the Dec 19 / March 20 spread widened from GBP +35 to GBP +50 on the large speculative long position in the previous month, should theoretically a correction / selling pressure set in or? It wouldn't be the first time the cocoa market has taught us better...Until then, we continue to wait for the origin of the 20/21 campaign.

Oct 16 - Chocolate makers face ethical branding dilemma
Ivory Coast and Ghana's threat to possibly halt the cocoa industry's ethical branding schemes poses a major risk to chocolate makers operating in Western markets where consumer demand for sustainably sourced products is rising. The West African nations, which together produce more than 60% of the world's cocoa, said last week they will re-examine the schemes because chocolate makers have been slow to pay them a "living income" premium for their beans.

Oct 16 - Malaysia offers to increase imports from India after Kashmir row
Malaysia is considering raising imports of raw sugar and buffalo meat from India, potentially easing trade tensions after reports New Delhi could restrict Malaysian palm oil imports following the country's criticism of India's actions in Kashmir. Malaysia is the world's second largest producer and exporter of palm oil after Indonesia. Its benchmark palm oil futures recouped losses to end higher on Tuesday after the announcement by the country's government.

Oct 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Was it the first "touch" of a correction against the background of the enormous net long position of over 155.00 lots (as reported yesterday)? The turnover in London of 2,000 lots by noon does not suggest this. A little more movement south came from the New York market. At the end of the day in London there was a minus of GBP 25 = GBP 1862. In New York the second month fell by US$ 53 to US$ 2470. Should the profit-taking of the longs increase, the first support from GBP 1820 can be expected. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire on 13.10.19: 132,000 mt. In the last season it was 103.000 mt.

Oct 15 - Heavy rains in Ivory Coast threaten cocoa crop
Unusually heavy rain last week in most of Ivory Coast's main cocoa growing regions has disturbed the development of the October-to-March main crop and disease is spreading in some plantations, farmers said on Monday. The marketing season in Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is underway with a new farmgate price of 825 CFA francs ($1.39) per kg set by the government early in October.

Oct 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Due to currency effects, the morning brought us a weaker start to the last trading day. March 19 sought and found good support at GBP 1880 (20 days moving average) and traded to lows of GBP 1869. There, driven by New York, good buying interest set in and brought the market to highs of GBP 1909. Closing almost unchanged at GBP -5 at GBP 1887. New York broke out of the final lethargy and ended the day at $ +46 at $2523 (high $2568). Commitment of Traders as of 08.10.19 show a significant expansion of the long position in London of over 17k lots, New York virtually unchanged. Combined, both exchanges now stand at 155,081 lots net. long. Fundamentally, the possible restructuring of the sustainability programmes continues to occupy the market. Is this just a "lever" of origin to push the industry to buy? The industry still has about 9 months price coverage, the origin has about 3 mio mt to sell for 20/21. The older among us still remember the times when about 70% of the harvest was sold in 3 months before the start of the season....It remains exciting.

Oct 14 - ICE sugar speculators raise bearish bets in latest week - U.S. CFTC 
Hedge funds and other money managers upped their net short position in sugar on the Intercontinental Exchange in the latest week, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The speculator group raised its net short position by 19,968 contracts to 183,243 in the week to Oct. 8, the data showed. 

Oct 14 - China's crackdown on sugar smuggling leaves global storage headache 
A crackdown on sugar smuggling into China has left abundantly supplied markets in elsewhere Asia struggling to absorb excess supplies, causing a wider storage problem for global markets. Vast tonnages of sugar smuggled into China are believed to be produced mostly in India or Thailand and shipped to Myanmar, Laos or Vietnam before entering the Chinese mainland.

Oct 11 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market report, Week 7-11 October 2019 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed response with Sri Lanka recorded the highest increase for its local market price and Viet Nam for its International market price. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,516 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported stable and relatively unchanged at an average of USD 1,624 per Mt and USD 3,284 per Mt respectively. Malaysian black and white pepper were also reported stable with an average of USD 2,000 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,513 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with a decrease by 1% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,702 per Mt. Viet Nam white pepper was reported to be traded stable with an average of USD 2,626 per Mt. Recording a 7% spike as opposed to the previous week, Sri Lanka black pepper became the only product which recorded an increase in local market and was traded at an average of USD 2,570 per Mt. Whilst, China white pepper was reported to be traded with an average of USD 4,635 per Mt.
- In international market, the trend also showed mixed response as only Viet Nam reported an increase. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,797 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported steady with at an average of USD 2,021 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,891 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l and 550 g/l were reported with an increase by 6% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,345 per Mt and USD 2,410 per Mt respectively. Viet Nam white pepper was also reported with an increase by 4% when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,495 per Mt. The increase of Viet Nam prices in international market could be contributed to China buying significant amount of pepper from Viet Nam. As of August 2019, Viet Nam's top country of destination is China. China traded its white pepper in the international level with an average of USD 4,835 per Mt.

Oct 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Once again a GBP 30 bandwidth, once again with little new impulses. A weak opening was followed by lows of GBP 1863 / March 20, after which the market rose slowly and leisurely until highs of GBP 1895 were reached in the afternoon. Closing March 20 GBP +17 at GBP 1892. It seems to look like consolidation in the markets this week. In the news yesterday, the market is preoccupied with the "investigation" and "examination" of all independent sustainability programs of the industry in Côte d'Ivoire & Ghana. Both countries want to take a close look at these programmes in the current 19/20 campaign and question them if necessary. Details will follow soon...

Oct 11 - Ivory Coast, Ghana to 're-examine' cocoa sustainability schemes 
Top cocoa producers Ivory Coast and Ghana said on Thursday they will re-examine the industry's sustainability schemes as chocolate makers have been slow to pay the two nations a living income differential (LID) for their beans. In a bid to ease pervasive farmer poverty, the West African neighbours, which together produce more than 60% of the world's cocoa, introduced the $400 LID in July on all cocoa sales for the 2020/21 season. 

Oct 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday demonstrated well what influence the current structure has on the price development. The Dec 19 / March 20 spread traded, with very good volume, down to GBP +33 and what is the market doing? Downs to a low of GBP 1866 / closing GBP -20 at GBP 1876. Yesterday was also one of the rare days where New York showed itself in the shadow of London, at least in terms of volume. March 20 in NY ended the day at $ -42 an ounce at $ 2426 an ounce.
Otherwise we have little to report at the moment, the industry and the origin are holding back elegantly and life-changing news that can move the market does not yet appear on the horizon.

Oct 10 - Suedzucker 2nd quarter earnings fall after sugar price drop, lower harvest 
Suedzucker, Europe's largest sugar refiner, said on Thursday its second-quarter earnings more than halved and revenues fell as a result of low sugar prices and weaker drought-driven harvests. The group posted an operating profit of 28 million euros ($31 million) in the second quarter ending Aug. 31, down 54.8% from a year earlier. Quarterly revenues fell to 1.64 billion euros from 1.73 billion euros, the company said.

Oct 10 - Brazil cane crush, sugar production jump amid dry weather -Unica 
Mills in Brazil's center-south region increased cane crushing and sugar production in the second half of September, as drier-than-normal weather allowed for a quicker harvesting pace, cane industry group Unica said on Wednesday. The plants produced 1.79 million tonnes of sugar in the period, up 39% from the same time a year earlier. They crushed 35.08 million tonnes, 26% more, while ethanol output increased 32% to 2.18 billion liters.

Oct 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A firm opening was followed by a moving morning session in cocoa, we saw highs in March 20 of GBP 1901 and lows of GBP 1866. The afternoon then had a much firmer trend and finally March 20, with good volume, ended the day at GBP +19 at GBP 1890. Most notably, yesterday's activity on the nearby Dec 19 / March 20 was this one traded at a premium of GBP 52 / close GBP +49, we remember last Friday, where the premium was still GBP +80. New York found good support at the 100 day moving average ($2413) and ended the day at $2468 at $24. The origin still seems to have no pressure, like the big buyers, to actively show up for 20/21 in the market. A dangerous game...On 16 resp. 17.10 the grinding figures for Q3 are published, also here we do not expect any big fireworks (i.e. unchanged). Asia could surprise, here an increase of approx. +10% is expected.

Oct 09 - German association sees new season sugar output up
Germany's refined sugar production in the new 2019/20 season now under way is forecast to rise to about 4.22 million tonnes from 4.19 million tonnes last season, Germany's sugar industry association WVZ said on Tuesday in its second harvest forecast.  But this was slightly down from 4.26 million tonnes in the association’s first estimate for 2019/20 made in September.

Oct 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Right from the start, prices on the markets came under strong pressure. It was the expected reaction to the high speculative long position (see report yesterday) and led to lows of GBP 1860 March 20 and US$ 2420 respectively. The first technical resistances have broken and March 20 ended the day on the trend line (see chart) at GBP 1871 / GBP -27. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire on 06.10.19 were 35,000mt vs. 29,000mt from last year (+20.7%). We assume, however, due to the increased Farmgateprice, a clear Carry Over from the previous year. Even including these, unofficial figures report a record harvest of 2.248 million mt. We remember that the targeted "production ceiling" is 2 million mt for 20/21. Ghana's figures look much gloomier with a 3-year negative record. Despite everything, this government also supports a limitation of the harvest but distributes 78 million seedlings for the current harvest...there remain more questions than answers.

Oct 08 - Brazil's Cooxupé hits record one-day coffee shipment of 215 containers
Cooxupé, Brazil's largest coffee farmer co-op and the no. 1 Brazilian coffee exporter, said it shipped 80,000 60-kg bags of the commodity in a 24-hour period, the highest one-day volume it has moved in a single day in the 87 years of its existence.  Cooxupé, which trades in coffee produced by 15,000 farmers, said the shipment, which was on Sept. 30, corresponded to 215 containers.

Oct 07 - ICE sugar speculators trim bearish bets in latest week - CFTC
Hedge funds and other money managers trimmed their net short position in sugar on the Intercontinental Exchange in the latest week, according to data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. The speculator group cut its net short position by 55,056 contracts to 163,276 in the week to Oct. 1, the data showed. The move came as sugar futures rose 12 percent during the period, driven by deliveries against the October contract that were smaller than expected.  

Oct 04 - Intl Pepper Market Report, Week 30 Sep - 4 Oct 2019 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed response with Indonesia recorded the lowest deficit for its black pepper. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 4,565 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported to be traded negatively and was reported with the lowest ever prices in recent years. Recording a 10% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 1,622 per Mt. The significant decrease in price of black pepper in Indonesia was as result of harvest period currently in full swing which flooded the market with product. Thus, pressuring the price in the local currency to an average of IDR 23,000 per Kg from IDR 25,500 per Kg in the previous week. Indonesia white pepper was reported with a 1% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,279 per Mt. Malaysian black and white pepper were reported with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,002 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,516 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with a decrease by 2% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,726 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,625 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with a 1% increase as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,398 per Mt.
- In international market, the trend also showed mixed response as only Viet Nam reported an increase. FOB price of India black pepper was reported steady at an average of USD 4,847 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with a 9% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,018 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with a 1% deficit when compared with the previous week at an average of USD 3,885 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase by 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,218 per Mt, USD 2,283 per Mt and USD 3,368 per Mt respectively.

Oct 04 - Brazil sugar company Raízen to idle mill in Sao Paulo state
Raízen, Brazil's largest sugar and ethanol producer, will temporarily close the Bom Retiro mill in Sao Paulo, the country's leading cane producing state, the company said on Thursday. Raízen, a 50-50 joint venture between Cosan SA and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, said the decision would allow the company to optimize operations in the Piracicaba production cluster. It said the closure would not impact cane processing projections, since it would divert the cane to be crushed at nearby mills in the region.

Oct 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report
The question of consolidation is getting louder, while firming yet again yesterday, although initially in a very restrained GBP 10 range. However, the upswing was dampened by a stronger British Pound: England's conservative ministers had commented on the latest Brexit proposal as a "possibly tolerable deal". Fund buying was triggered by a weaker start to trading by New York colleagues. The levels then ran to new 11-week highs in both markets; the Mar 20 marked GBP 1939 and finally closed at GBP1906 (+GBP 18). All in all, you don't want to be short at the moment... But what do longs do now? Expand the position or cash in at current levels? On the one hand, we are near the top end of an 18-month range; on the other hand, however, the long position was already larger than it is now. Profit taking in one way or another is likely. Meanwhile, exports of the past harvest from Côte d'Ivoire increased: 1.534 million mt or +9% (beans)/413k mt or +4% (products).

Oct 02 - Analyst Green Pool raises 2019/20 global sugar deficit forecast 

Analyst Green Pool has raised its forecast for an anticipated global sugar deficit in the 2019/20 season to 5.17 million tonnes, raw value, from a previous projection of 3.67 million. The Australia-based analyst said on Wednesday that the wider deficit partly reflected diminished outlooks for production in the European Union and India.