Softs News

Apr18 - Easter Holidays

There are lots of holidays this week and next due to Christian Easter holidays.
Some countries like Brazil are closed on both Friday 18 (Good Friday) and Monday 21 (Easter Monday). Here in France things are only closed on Monday.

Apr 17 - Domestic coffee prices edge up in Vietnam, Indonesia flips to discount (Reuters)
Coffee bean prices in Vietnam rose this week as focus shifted to tight supplies after a temporary pause on U.S. tariffs, while beans in Indonesia flipped to a discount, traders said on Thursday.
Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing region, sold beans at 132,700-133,700 dong ($5.13-$5,17) per kg, up from last week's 117,300-119,000 dong.

LIFFE robusta coffee for July RC2! also gained $330 from the beginning of this week, closing at $5,379 per metric ton on Wednesday.
"Now that tariff concern has temporarily eased, people turn their focus back on supply crunch as Vietnam still remains a key source for robusta until harvest peak in Indonesia," said a trader based in the coffee belt.

Over the past week, some U.S.-based importers asked Vietnamese firms to delay shipments and suspend signing new contracts as they were afraid of possible tariffs on the country, the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam said in a note.
"Other markets have also suspended transactions as they foresee prices will potentially fall due to the tariffs," according to the agency.

- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at a $150-160 discount to the May contract, down from $160-$180 premium last week "to adjust with the rise in London terminal lately", one trader said. Another trader quoted $140 discount to the July contract, compared to a $180 premium last week as "coffee beans are more available at the market."

Apr 13 - What Trump’s power play really means for the global coffee industry( Reuters )

Resilience and risk – who wins, who loses?
Not all countries – or companies – will feel the pinch equally.

- Brazil, already the world’s largest coffee producer, stands to benefit. With diversified production that includes both arabica and robusta, robust shipping infrastructure, and historically close ties to the U.S., Brazil appears well-positioned to solidify its dominance.

Analyst Alexander Barrett recently noted that “Brazil just won the coffee wars.” Indeed, its capacity to absorb shocks and offer scale gives it a structural advantage. In states like Espírito Santo, investments in robusta production have been ramping up, with exports climbing steadily. Even with moderate tariffs, Brazil remains competitive despite its climate change-related production issues, especially if Vietnam and Indonesia become pricier for American buyers.

Should reciprocal tariffs resume in 3 months, Colombia may also find unexpected upside. Washed arabicas from Colombia, long considered premium, had been undercut by the rise of high-quality robusta. But tariffs on Vietnam may reverse that trend, making Colombian beans more appealing once again to U.S. roasters. Still, with domestic challenges like labour shortages and climate pressures, Colombia’s ability to ramp up production quickly is limited.

Vietnam and Indonesia, by contrast, find themselves in a precarious spot. Unlike Colombia, which has invested heavily in promoting origin-branded, higher-value washed arabicas, Vietnam and Indonesia (with exceptions) are more often part of bulk commodity supply chains. Their economies also have less capacity to absorb shocks compared to Brazil, for example.

Despite the pause, the threat of tariffs has already disrupted contracts and spooked buyers. The irony is sharp: having built reputations for quality and reliability, they now risk being punished for geopolitical alignments they can’t control.

Crucially, the impact is not only national. Vertically integrated, capital-rich traders and multinationals may have the capacity to absorb short-term volatility. Smallholder cooperatives, farmers, and specialty traders will struggle.

Tariffs don’t just tax goods – they tax trust, timing, and scale.
“For the smallholder farmers ITC works with, the proposed tariffs could lead to immediate income losses, as they lack the financial flexibility to store coffee or wait for better prices,” says Sadiq.
“While cooperatives may offer some buffer, they remain vulnerable without access to finance or diversified markets. If U.S. buyers shift toward more stable, large-scale suppliers, there’s a real risk that smallholders and cooperatives could be sidelined, so strengthening market linkages and building resilience is key to ensuring they are not left behind.”

Meanwhile, U.S. consumers were initially expected to shoulder the costs. A Reuters report in March 2025 warned of “double-digit coffee price hikes by year-end,” a prediction that commodity analyst Javier Blas also made a few weeks prior in a popular Bloomberg Opinion video.

But when prices fell in response to tariff panic after Trump’s “Liberation Day,” it seemed roasters might pass the pain down the supply chain instead. For exporters and producers in origin countries, that’s a familiar story: Being at the mercy of markets they don’t control.
“The burden of trade policy tends to be pushed back downstream with roasters concerned that price hikes will hurt demand,” says Judith. “Either way it is producers that get hurt in the end, because it becomes more difficult to sell their coffee or the price declines to counter this.”
“Retail prices have been rising to reflect the price climb and heaping tariffs on top of that probably reaches a breaking point for consumers but also for coffee operators to function if they can’t pass the costs along.”

Apr 11 - Ivory Coast threatens more expensive cocoa in response to US tariffs
Ivory Coast, the world's biggest cocoa producer, could take measures to make the product more expensive if tariffs proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump go into effect, the West African country's agriculture minister said on Thursday. The Trump administration last week announced tariffs of 21%, the highest in West Africa, on Ivory Coast as part of higher targeted duties on dozens of countries.

Apr 10 - Brazil green coffee exports fall around 27% year-on-year in March
Brazilian green coffee exports fell 26.5% in March compared with the same period a year ago to 2.95 million 60-kilogram bags, according to data released on Wednesday by local exporters' group Cecafe, which cited record shipments in 2024 as the cause of the decline. Brazil, the world's top coffee producer and exporter, shipped abroad 2.81 million bags of arabica beans, a nearly 11% decline year-on-year, while exports of the robusta variety tumbled some 84% to about 138,500 bags, the data showed.

Apr 09 - Brazil coffee exporters glimpse opportunity amidst U.S tariffs
Brazilian coffee exporters see U.S. President Donald Trump's global tariffs as an opportunity to send more robusta beans to the United States after international rivals were hit with even heavier charges. Trump's tariffs levy a charge of 10% on imports from Brazil, while Vietnam and Indonesia - the world's first and third-largest robusta producers - got hit by 46% and 32% tariffs respectively.

Apr 07 - Coffee, cocoa and sugar plunge as Trump tariff turmoil continues (Reuters)
- World coffee, cocoa and sugar prices plunged on Monday as investors continued to fret about recession risks, with U.S. President Donald Trump showing little sign of backing down from sweeping trade tariffs imposed late last week. Investors fear a global trade war could spur higher prices, weaker demand and potentially a global recession. Trump has imposed baseline levies of 10% on almost all countries' exports to the U.S., and higher tariffs on many. Hardest hit were Asian countries, with China now facing total tariffs of more than 50% and top robusta coffee producer Vietnam hit with a 46% levy.

- Robusta coffee futures traded on the ICE exchange and seen as a global price benchmark were down 6.9% at $4,772 a metric ton at 1627 GMT, having hit their lowest in more than four months at $4,762, while arabica slid 6% to $3.4400 per lb, having earlier hit a two-month low of $3.4300.

- Indonesia, the world's third-largest robusta exporter, faces a 32% tariff on exports to the U.S., while Brazil, the world's top arabica shipper and No. 2 robusta exporter, faces levies of just 10%.

- Dealers said both robusta and arabica were largely under pressure from fears of a global recession. Vietnam and Indonesia do not ship huge volumes of coffee to the United States. Still, the U.S. is the world's largest chocolate and coffee consumer, and one of the world's top sugar users, so any decline in its consumption patterns will affect world prices.

- In other soft commodities, London cocoa fell 6% to 5,997 pounds per ton, having hit a five-month low of 5,971, while New York cocoa was down 5.5% to $8,046 a ton, having closed down 8% on Friday.

- Cocoa traders remain concerned about the upcoming mid-crop in top producer Ivory Coast. Exporters estimated cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports from the season start to April 6 were up 10.5% from the same period a year ago, but they are expected to fall sharply following adverse weather this year.

- Elsewhere, raw sugar SB1! slipped 0.6% to 18.72 cents per lb, having earlier hit its lowest in nearly a month at 18.62, while white sugar fell 0.7% to $534.50 a ton.

Apr 05 - Markets on the verge of a nervous breakdown
This week was tough for financial markets. Major indices took a nosedive after Donald Trump unveiled "reciprocal" tariffs that were much higher than anyone anticipated. The baseline is a 10% tariff, but some nations are feeling the heat far more. China is staring down the barrel of a whopping 54% in customs duties, Vietnam isn't far behind at 46%, and the European Union, by comparison, is getting off with a "slap on the wrist" at 20%. Volatility is the name of the game as risk aversion makes a dramatic comeback. Just when you thought it couldn't get any more chaotic, China decided to throw its hat into the tariff ring, announcing a 34% levy on U.S. products this Friday. The trade war isn't just a looming threat; it's here, and it's shaking up the markets with gusto.

Apr 04 - ASIA COFFEE-Supplies remain scarce in Vietnam amid uncertainty around US tariff impact
- Supply of robusta beans remained scarce in Vietnam amid escalating tariff uncertainties globally and tightening supplies from farmers, while activities were muted in Indonesia for Eid al-Fitr, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing region, sold beans at 132,500-133,600 dong ($5.1-$5.18) per kg.

- With 46%, Vietnam will face among the highest reciprocal rates under U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping new levies. In comparison, Vietnam's rivals, Brazil and Indonesia, will face lower tariff rates of 10% and 32%, respectively.
"It is still unclear how much would be imposed on Vietnamese beans," said a trader based in the coffee belt. "Domestic prices may still increase in the next trading sessions."
Another trader from the same region said some were still buying to fulfil the May deliveries obligation.
In the first quarter of this year, Vietnam exported $2.8 billion worth of coffee, an increase of 45% against the same period last year, the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV) said in a note, citing data from Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association. MXV said exporters should be cautious with holding beans for the long term.
"Current prices are still at their peak. The possibility of further increases cannot be ruled out," said Nguyen Ngoc Quynh, deputy head of the agency.

LIFFE robusta coffee for July closed at $5,400 per metric ton on Wednesday.

- Traders also offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount of $150-$170 to the July LIFFE contract.

Apr 04 - Cocoa, coffee, sugar prices slide as markets remain rattled by tariffs (Reuters)

- World cocoa, coffee and sugar prices slid again on Friday as markets remained rattled by U.S. president Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, especially after China retaliated with its own levies on U.S. imports.
Trump on Wednesday imposed a 10% tariff on most U.S. imports and much higher levies of more than 50% on some countries, prompting a world-wide sell-off in stock markets as nations from Canada to China ready retaliation.
"Following this 'liberation', many trade flows from the most affected producers will now enter a labyrinth in order to find demand in other countries," said Rabobank in a report that warned the new demand will come 'at an efficiency cost'.
The bank also said that as 'retaliation day' looms, U.S. consumers of coffee and chocolate should expect more expensive products as top cocoa producer Ivory Coast faces a 21% tariff while No. 2 coffee producer Vietnam faces a 'humbling' 46% levy.
London cocoa futures settled down 313 pounds, or 4.7%, to 6,370 pounds per metric ton at ICE exchange, seen as a global price benchmark, while New York cocoa plunged 8.4% to $8,512 a ton.

Aside from consuming the most chocolate, the U.S. is also the world's top importer of processed cocoa products like butter from the European Union, Malaysia and Indonesia, which now face tariffs of 20%, 24% and 32%, respectively.

- Arabica coffee futures slid 5.1% to $3.657 per lb, while robusta coffee fell 4.8% at $5,128 a ton. Dealers said worries over demand are growing in coffee and that the Trump tariffs come at a time when roasters are already facing pushback in their bid to pass on near-record prices to retail stores in the world's largest coffee consuming nation.
"If applied, the new (46%) tariffs could spell the end of Vietnam coffee in the U.S. as it would create significant price gaps with competing robusta origins - a massive 36-percentage-point difference (~$1,944/ton) compared with Brazil," said a dealer.
In other soft commodities traded, raw sugar settled down 0.27 cent, or 1.4%, at 18.84 cents per lb, having closed down 2.5% on Thursday, while white sugar fell 1% at $538.30 a ton, having lost 1.6% in the prior session.

Apr 03 - Brazil center-south 2025/26 sugarcane crop down from previous year, Orplana says
Brazil's center-south sugarcane crop in 2025-2026 is forecast at 605 million to 618 million metric tons, Jose Nogueira, the chief executive of producers' group Orplana said on Wednesday. The forecast is lower than the standing cane produced in the 2024-2025 season, which was around 630 million to 640 million tons, he said.

Apr 03 - Ghana's 2024/25 cocoa crop projected to grow 32%, USDA says
Cocoa production in Ghana, the world's second largest grower of the chocolate-making beans, is projected to grow 32% in the 2024/25 season (Oct-Sept) to 700,000 metric tons, according to a report by the United States Department of Agriculture. USDA said in the report released late on Tuesday that better crop care in the African country was the main reason for the production recovery.

Apr 03 - Import tax on coffee pressures US roasters already facing high prices (Reuters)
- The first U.S. tariffs on coffee imports since colonial times will increase costs and complexity to importers and roasters already dealing with near-record prices.
The U.S. announced on Wednesday tariffs of 46% on imports from Vietnam, the world's second largest coffee producer, as well as a 32% duty on imports from Indonesia, the fourth largest grower. Central and South American coffee growers, such as Brazil and Colombia, got a 10% tariff.

- Vietnam is the third largest supplier of coffee to the U.S., the world's largest consumer of the beverage. It mainly exports robusta coffee, a type widely used to make instant coffee as well as ready-to-drink cold beverages.
"Vietnam is the big one that sticks out," said Tomas Araujo, a broker at StoneX. "Going forward, it will be a challenge for the supply chain and to end users, with added costs," he said.
"This is big. The tariff on Vietnam means $2,500 more per ton" for a U.S. buyer, a European trader said. ICE robusta futures , the global price benchmark, were trading at around $5,390 per ton on Thursday.

It is uncertain if beans already en route to the U.S. are subject to the large tariff, he noted.
Countries exporting cocoa, the main chocolate-making ingredient, were also taxed. No. 1 grower Ivory Coast got a 21% tariff.
"Both the coffee industry and candy manufacturers will lobby hard to have the tariffs removed from these products," said soft commodities analyst Judith Ganes, president of J Ganes Consulting. "I personally doubt the tariffs will stick."
U.S. roasters will probably have to shift from Vietnam's robustas to Brazil's, known as conilons, experts said. But Brazil does not have a lot of robustas, as it produces mostly the milder arabica variety.
The U.S. will have to compete for the conilons with the local Brazilian industry, they said, while Europe and China might be better off having a larger supply from Vietnam at lower prices.

Apr 03 - SOFTS Coffee and cocoa fall as Trump tariffs spark demand worries (Reuters)
- World cocoa and coffee prices fell on Thursday as investors fretted that President Donald Trump's move to slap punishing tariffs on U.S. imports would damage chocolate and coffee demand in the world's top consumer of the products.

- Sugar prices also fell, caught in the melee of tariffs as the U.S. is also one of the world's top sugar importers.

- Trump said he would impose a 10% baseline tariff on all U.S. imports, taking the maximum to nearly 50% for some countries and unleashing turbulence across world markets as investors fret about the end of a decades-long era of trade liberalisation.
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- Top robusta growers Vietnam and Indonesia were targeted with 46% and 32% tariffs, respectively, top arabica and sugar grower Brazil was hit with 10% tariffs for its goods, while top cocoa growers Ivory Coast and Ghana face 21% and 10% tariffs.

- The first U.S. tariffs on coffee imports since colonial times will increase costs and complexity to importers and roasters already dealing with near-record prices, experts said on Thursday. The U.S. is also a major importer of processed cocoa products like butter and powder from the EU, Malaysia and Indonesia. Trump slapped 20% tariffs on EU imports and 24% on Malaysian goods, while the 32% tariffs on Indonesia of course apply to both robusta coffee and to cocoa products.
"We don't know the (full) impact right now (but) there are no winners, this is bad for everyone. For the U.S., its inflationary while others lose access to the U.S., a huge market," said a Europe-based coffee trader.
Arabica coffee futures on the ICE exchange, seen as a global price benchmark, settled down 3.6 cents, or 0.9%, at $3.8525 per lb, having earlier fallen nearly 3%, while robusta coffee futures slipped 0.2% at $5,388 a ton, having earlier fallen 2.5%.
London cocoa futures fell 1.4% to 6,683 pounds per ton, having earlier fallen nearly 5%, while New York cocoa gained 3.6% to $9,291 a ton, having earlier risen nearly 6%.
Dealers said New York cocoa was being boosted by weakness in the dollar as the harsher-than-expected Trump tariffs sent investors scrambling for bonds and gold.
A weak dollar makes dollar-priced cocoa cheaper for non-U.S. investors. Sterling for example gained versus the dollar, making sterling-priced London cocoa more expensive for investors outside Britain and prompting them to sell.
In other soft commodities traded, raw sugar settled down 0.48 cents, or 2.5%, at 19.11 cents per lb, while white sugar sank 1.6% at $543.80 a ton.

Apr 1st - Brazil's Eike Batista eyes new $500 million Gulf investment in 'supercane' project
Brazilian businessman Eike Batista, once the country's richest man, said a Gulf investor will soon announce a $500 million investment in his new project using modified sugarcane to ramp up production of sustainable fuels. The project, which had already secured $500 million from Sao Paulo-based private development bank Brazilinvest, aims to close another investment of that size this week from a strategic investor in the United Arab Emirates, Batista told Reuters.

Mar 27 - Farmers hold off selling in Vietnam, tight supplies in Indonesia (Reuters)

Supply of robusta beans tightened in Vietnam and Indonesia, with Vietnamese farmers refraining from selling the bean on hopes of higher profit, and scarce supplies in Indonesia at the end of the harvest season, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing region, sold beans at 133,700-135,000 dong ($5.23-$5.28), up from last week's 131,000-133,000 dong.
"Vietnam remains the only source of robusta at the moment so farmers who are not short of cash tend to hold the beans for higher prices," a trader based in the coffee belt said, adding it was extremely hard to buy now.
"It is dry season now. But water resource for irrigation is still sufficient at this point," the trader added.

According to Nguyen Ngoc Quynh, deputy head of the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam, Brazil's robusta beans output potentially would not meet expectations.
"There is around one week left until the harvest of Brazil's Robusta Conilon coffee, however, the weather forecast is not so favourable. Therefore, domestic coffee price will remain high, at 135,000 dong per kg," Quynh said.

LIFFE robusta coffee for July RC2! closed at $5,443 per metric ton on Wednesday.

- Traders also offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount of $200 to the July LIFFE contract.

- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta beans to the April contract were offered at $70-$80 discount, compared with the $100-$110 discount last week, one trader said, due to tight supply.
Another trader quoted a $80 discount to the May contract, narrowing from $100 discount a week ago.
The Indonesian market will be closed for Eid al-Fitr next week.

Mar 20 - Domestic prices rise in Vietnam, supplies scarce in Indonesia (Reuters)

Coffee prices edged up in Vietnam following a rise in London terminal, while Indonesian prices flipped back to discounts due to limited supplies, traders said on Thursday.
Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing region, sold beans at 133,700-135,000 dong ($5.23-$5.28), up from last week's 131,000-133,000 dong.
"Some farmers already released beans at this price to cap the gain. However, some who are not short on cash chose to keep the beans for better profit," said a trader based in the coffee belt.
"But the remaining beans in farmers' stock are not many," he added.

Another trader said supplies would stay that tight until harvest in Indonesia.
"Firms are struggling to buy at the moment. Last year, many could buy from Brazil to compensate for the shortage but this year, supplies there are tight as well," the second person said.

LIFFE robusta coffee for May RC2! closed at $5,527 per metric ton on Wednesday.

Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at a $100-110 discount to the April contract this week, a decrease from $80 premium a week ago, "as beans are still scarce," a trader said.
Another trader said that beans were offered at $100 discount this week, also citing scarcity of beans.

Mar 19 - Ivory Coast's mid-crop cocoa output expected to drop around 40% due to long drought, exporters say
Ivory Coast's cocoa mid-crop output is expected to drop around 40% this season after an unusually long dry season and limited, patchy rainfall hit crops in the main production regions, exporters and pod counters said. Farmers have said rains were scattered and irregular in the West African country and proper downpours were needed to boost production and ensure bean quality during the mid-crop season, which begins April 1 and ends on September 30.

Mar 17 - US coffee industry asks Trump administration to exempt product from tariffs
The United States' National Coffee Association asked the Trump administration to exempt the product from any tariffs, saying the already adopted additional duties on Canada and Mexico could increase U.S. prices up to 50%.

Mar 14 - Brazil coffee exports fall in February on less competitive prices
Brazil's green coffee export volume fell 11.7% in February from a year earlier, industry group Cecafe said on Thursday, attributing the decline mainly to less competitive prices when compared to other producers such as Vietnam. Brazil, the world's top coffee producer and exporter, registered exports at 3 million 60-kg bags of green coffee last month, Cecafe said, with shipments of both arabica and robusta varieties falling in the period.

Mar 13 - Lacklustre trading in Vietnam, Indonesia flips to premiumFarmers in Vietnam held off from selling this week despite healthy demand, while in Indonesia prices flipped into premium on scarce supplies, traders said on Thursday.Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing region, sold beans at 131,000-133,000 dong ($5.14-$5.22), compared with last week's 133,000-134,000 dong."It is very hard to buy now. Farmers are not selling. At the same time, alternative sources of beans from Brazil are thin," said a trader based in the coffee belt, adding it was still months until Indonesian harvest."Farmers may still have 30% to 40% of their stock left. They are hoping for higher price."LIFFE robusta coffee for May RC2! closed at $5,508 per metric ton on Wednesday.Traders also offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount of $150-$200 to the May LIFFE contract.U.S.-based broker Marex estimated last week the crop in Vietnam, the second largest global coffee producer, increasing 2.2 million bags to 29.8 million bags.In Indonesia, Sumatran robusta coffee beans were offered at a $80 premium this week, an increase from $180 discount a week ago to the April contract, "as beans are scarce," one trader based in the region said.

Mar 10 - Coffee theft surges in the US as prices for the beans soar (Reuters)

- Theft of truck loads of green coffee beans is surging in the United States, the world's largest importer of the commodity, as prices for the beans increased to all-time highs in the last year, according to transportation companies. The issue was discussed by market participants over the weekend in Houston, where the U.S. National Coffee Association held its annual conference.

The U.S. is the world's largest consumer of the beverage. Since coffee is only produced in warmer geographies, it has to import nearly 100% of what it uses and transport millions of bags from ports to roasting plants, mostly via trucks.
"There were dozens of thefts in the last year, something that would happen only rarely in the past," said Todd Costley, logistic sales coordinator for Hartley Transportation, a freight broker in Pembroke, New Hampshire.
Theft of coffee has been reported in producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam, usually in farms where the beans are temporarily stored after the harvest. Those sites are more vulnerable because they are isolated. Armed men took 500 bags of coffee worth around $230,000 from a farm in Brazil's Minas Gerais state in January, according to the local police.

In the U.S., the thefts have been done by organized gangs who disguise as transportation companies. Costley said those fake companies are in the market trying to get small contracts from importers by offering better prices or immediate availability of trucks.
"Importers should be careful about who they hire," he said. "Once they get the coffee, they disappear."
Each truck load has about 44,000 pounds (19,958 kg) of green beans, which at current market value is worth around $180,000.
Some market participants believe the gangs then try to sell the beans to smaller roasters, which are feeling the pain from sky-high prices.
Some importers have started attaching tracking devices to the coffee bags, in an effort to protect their shipments.

Mar 05 - European sugar industry looking for direction amid increasing uncertainty

Volatility would seem to be a strong contender for word of the year in 2025, not only in geo-political terms but also in regard to some of the changes taking place in the European sugar industry, as Julian Price explains in his latest EU & UK Sugar Report.

Sugar prices across Europe have been affected by the recent drop in world prices, but are there signs of recovery? Are changes to European stocks, imports and exports providing a signal for this or just more noise?

While the 2024/25 sugarbeet harvest has been better than expected in some quarters, it was still underwhelming by recent historical standards. But with inconsistent weather patterns across the continent how might next season’s crop fare?

And changes to the industrial landscape have seen some sugar factories shut up shop, with rumours of more to come. But with some beet processors reportedly wanting a reduction in the area planted to beet this Spring, how might a change to the regulatory regime affect the outlook?

Mar 04 - Brazil's coffee stockpiles dwindle as prices hit record highs
In a Brazilian coffee warehouse usually stuffed with a quarter of a million bags of the aromatic bean, voices echo in the largely empty space at a large producers' cooperative. Reeling from one of the worst droughts on record, Brazil's coffee farmers have sold almost all their beans months before the new crop as global prices have nearly doubled to all-time highs in the past 14 months.

- Consumers waking up to smell the coffee were jolted last year as Starbucks hiked the price of a large cup of fresh brew about 16% to as much as $3.85. Nespresso coffee-pod subscribers will soon pay up to $1.45 per basic pod, up from $1.30.

- Prices for arabica, the most popular bean, used in most ground roasted coffee, soared 70% in 2024 and nearly 20% this year to an all-time high above $4.30 per pound on February 11. Robusta , the second-most popular bean, often used in instant coffee, surged 72% in 2024 and peaked at $5,847 per metric ton on February 12.
Yet caffeine connoisseurs cannot kick the habit. They may again drink more coffee than is produced globally in 2025 - for the fourth time in the past six years.
- Farmers in Brazil, the world's largest coffee grower, raided their stockpiles to cash in with record exports in 2024. But exports by Vietnam fell 17.2% from 2023 as the top robusta supplier battled bad weather last year.
"We never had such low stocks in February, a period that is still distant from the new crop," said Willian Cesar Freiria, sales manager at Cocapec, Brazil's third largest coffee co-op, in the town of Franca in Sao Paulo state. Cocapec received 1.1 million bags from associated farmers in 2024, down from 1.5 million bags in 2023, due to smaller production in the region, after another year of below-average rains.
"Until the start of the next harvest we won't have much coffee to sell," said Freiria. "And it is not only us; it is the same everywhere."
Supplies only seem larger at Cooxupe, the world's largest coffee co-op, in Brazil's top-producing state of Minas Gerais.
"You see a lot of coffee in the warehouses, but nearly all is coffee already sold to final clients. They are only here waiting to be shipped," said Andre Silva Pinto, Cooxupe's storage coordinator.
Coffee farmers have already sold 90% of the 2024 crop, added Luiz Fernando dos Reis, sales superintendent for Cooxupe. "What they have left is the lowest amount we ever saw in our records."
- Big one-ton bags of arabica are taking around 70% of the space at Cooxupe's Japy storage complex, while half of the other 45 bulk silos are filled. The complex can hold 2.6 million 60-kg bags, the equivalent of one month's consumption in the United States, the world's largest coffee drinking nation.

SOLD OUT
- Cooxupe's estimate of farmers' sales is in line with recent data showing historically low inventory levels. Consultancy Safras & Mercado estimated farmers have sold 88% of the 2024 crop. Broker Pine Agronegocios said only 8% remained.
- Silva Pinto said the Japy complex will be 80% empty by May, as most coffee would have been shipped and the co-op prepares to receive the new harvest which starts around May or June. The co-op does not expect new-crop coffee to be ready for shipping before July.
Osmar Junior, a Cooxupe member who grows arabica in Piumhi municipality in southern Minas Gerais, said neither he nor his neighbors have any coffee left to sell. He will only start to harvest the new crop around late May.
- Paulo Armelin, who farms near Patrocinio in the Cerrado Mineiro region, is an exception, keeping 40% of his 2024 crop as a precaution.
"I will have a smaller production this year, so I decided to hold on to some coffee from last year as a reserve in case of need," he said. Armelin, who sells high-quality beans directly to four U.S. clients, is negotiating with a San Francisco-based roaster. He is waiting for an answer after asking for $4.50 a pound, up from $3.05 last year.
"It is very good coffee and I'm actually cutting the premium I used to have over the futures," he said, referring to contracts to sell at a predetermined price on a future date.
- Luis Norberto Pascoal, owner of Daterra Coffees, a large, high-quality arabica grower, is happy that smaller farmers are making more profits, but doubts current prices can be sustained.
Many roasters will lack the means to buy beans and look for ways to cut costs, he said. "Quality is going to go down."

Feb 28 - ASIA COFFEE-Domestic prices edge lower in Vietnam, discounts narrow in Indonesia (Reuters)

- Coffee prices in Vietnam edged slightly lower this week on global cues and dull trading activities, while discounts in Indonesia narrowed, traders said on Thursday (Feb 27).
Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing region, sold beans at 130,500 dong (US$5.11) per kg, down from last week.

LIFFE robusta coffee for May settled at US$5,410 per metric tone as of Wednesday's close.
"London prices have fallen a lot since the beginning of this week," said a trader based in the coffee belt.
"Some exporters have already fulfilled their contracts so demand has become slightly softer. At the same time, farmers are still hoping that prices would further increase so they are not releasing beans in bulk."

- In Vietnam, traders also offered five per cent black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount of US$220-280 to the May LIFFE contract.

- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at a US$70 discount this week to the April contract, compared with a US$310 discount a week ago, a trader said.
To the May contract, the coffee beans were quoted at a $30 discount, compared with a $380-$400 discount last week, another trader said.

Feb 20 - ASIA COFFEE-Vietnam supplies decline, Indonesia prices 'unpredictable'

- Robusta supplies in Vietnam dwindled this week after robust sales in the past two weeks, as farmers were reluctant to sell in anticipation of higher prices, while prices were "unpredictable" in Indonesia, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing region, sold beans at 132,200-133,500 dong ($5.18-$5.23), flat from last week's 132,000-133,000 dong.

LIFFE robusta coffee for May settled up $25 at $5,746 per metric ton as of Wednesday's close.
"Farmers are reluctant to sell, again. Some are expecting the prices to climb to 140,000-150,000 dong per kg," said a trader based in the coffee belt.
"But Indonesia harvest season is coming soon, given the remaining beans from current crop are still abundant, farmers will eventually have to increase sales."
Another trader from the same region said the weather was still favourable and not too dry for the trees.
A Reuters poll released last week forecast that output of the next crop would reach 29 million 60-kg bags, up from 28 million in 2024/25.

- Traders also offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount of $480-$500 to the May LIFFE contract.

- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans to the March and April contract were offered at $310-$400 discount this week, compared to $350-$370 discount range a week ago.
"Prices are quite unpredictable, as we heard the coming yields from Brazil and Vietnam are decreasing," a trader said.
Another trader said beans were quoted $380-$400 discount to the May contract, compared to a $350 discount last week.

Feb 14 - Brazil says US ethanol tariff would be unreasonable, calls for sugar talks
Brazil's Energy and Mining Minister Alexandre Silveira said on Thursday that a potential U.S. tariff on Brazilian ethanol would be unreasonable, emphasizing that the two countries have historically negotiated ethanol and sugar trade together. His remarks came after U.S. President Donald Trump moved to scrap decades-old low tariff rates, raising them to match those of other countries. A White House fact sheet on the plan pointed to Brazil's ethanol tariffs as an example of unfair trade practices.

Feb 14 - Robusta coffee hits fresh record peak, white sugar at 2-month top (Reuters)
- Robusta coffee futures traded on the ICE exchange hit a fresh record peak for the second consecutive day on Thursday, belatedly catching up with this year's blistering rally in arabica coffee, while white sugar hit a new two-month top.

COFFEE

* Robusta coffee RC2! hit $5,849 a metric ton earlier, its highest since the contract started trading in 2008, but retreated to trade down 0.6% by 1452 GMT at $5,784.
* Arabica coffee KC2! fell 0.3% to $4.1905 per lb. The contract climbed to an all-time high of $4.2995/lb for a 14th successive session on Tuesday, before retreating sharply.
* Robusta prices are seen ending 2025 at $4,200 a metric ton, down 28% versus Wednesday's close, with improved supplies seen in top producers Brazil and Vietnam, a Reuters poll showed. Arabica futures are expected to end the year down by around 30%.
* Nestle NESN said on Tuesday it will have to hike coffee prices more than previously expected this year, even as it pledged to only pass on a portion of its soaring raw coffee costs onto shoppers.
* Cash-strapped consumers have been pushing back against price hikes. Nestle's competitors slowed price increases last year in a move to woo back shoppers but Nestle did not ease as quickly, resulting in weak sales volumes that led to the August ouster of its former CEO.
* Citi said in a report this week that coffee prices have likely peaked as demand starts to curtail in response to high prices and supplies replenish, leaving the market with a small surplus in 2025/26.

SUGAR

* Raw sugar futures SB1! rose 1.6% to 20.07 cents per lb, while white sugar SF1! rose 0.3% to $547 a ton, after hitting its highest since early December at $554.
* Underpinning prices was news that Indonesia plans to import around 200,000 metric tons of raw sugar to top up its food reserve as white sugar prices have climbed in the domestic market, the National Food Agency said.
* Against that, sugar production in Thailand, the world's second largest exporter, is set to climb further in the 2025/26 season, potentially to the highest in seven years, trade and industry sources said.

COCOA

* New York cocoa futures CC2! rose 3.1% to $10,441 a ton, having settled down 1.7% on Wednesday, while London cocoa C2! rose 1.8% to 8,242 pounds per ton.
* Cocoa is being underpinned by concerns about dry weather in top grower Ivory Coast, although stocks held in ICE warehouses in the U.S. have recovered of late, helping keep prices range-bound overall.

Feb 13 - Arabica coffee prices seen falling 30% by end-2025 (Reuters)

    Arabica and robusta prices seen posting annual losses
    Brazil 2025/26 coffee crop seen down 2.7% at 64.6 million bags
    Vietnam 2025/26 coffee crop seen up 3.6% at 29 million bags

- Arabica coffee futures are expected to fall by around 30% by the end of 2025, with recent record high prices expected to curb demand and early signs pointing to a bumper Brazilian crop next year, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
The poll had a median forecast for arabica prices at the end of 2025 of $2.95 per pound, a drop of 30% from Wednesday's close and a loss of 6% from end-2024.
"Demand will stagnate in response to very high prices," one participant in the poll of 12 traders and analysts said.

The rise in prices has been fuelled by the prospect of a smaller arabica crop in top grower Brazil in the upcoming 2025/26 season.
The median forecast for Brazil's 2025/26 arabica coffee crop in the poll was 40.55 million bags, down from the prior season's 43.4 million.
Several participants, however, pointed to the potential for a larger crop in the 2026/27 season.
"If we can get through the frost/rain period without damage, there should be a massive 26/27 Brazil crop on the horizon," another participant said.

Arabica coffee prices were among the strongest performing commodity markets in 2024, rising by about 70%, and have continued to climb this year hitting a record high of $4.2995 on February 11.

Brazil's total crop was seen falling to 64.6 million bags from 66.4 million in 2024/25 with a rise in robusta (conillon) production partly offseting the fall in arabica output.
Prices for robusta coffee were seen ending 2025 at $4,200 a metric ton, down 28% from Wednesday's close, to post an annual loss of 14%.
Brazil's robusta crop was seen rising in 2025/26 to 24.5 million bags, up from 21 million in the previous season.
While President Trump's tariff talk dominated most of the week's headlines, investors on Friday focused on retail sales figures for January, which took an unexpected nosedive after four strong months.

A larger harvest was also forecast in top robusta producer Vietnam of 29 million bags, up from 28 million in 2024/25.
"If weather conditions remain favourable (in Vietnam), we expect production to recover given the investments made by farmers in recent years," one participant said.

Feb 11 - Dry season in Ivory Coast triggers cocoa shortage fears, farmers sayA lack of rain in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa-growing regions could delay the start of the April-to-September mid-crop, potentially leading to a shortage of beans, the main ingredient in chocolate, farmers said on Monday. The world's top cocoa producer is in the dry season that runs from mid-November to March when rains are scarce and poor, and farmers say it is very hot compared to last year.

Feb 07 - Asia coffee: Vietnam market upbeat post holidays (Reuters)

Vietnam’s domestic coffee market was upbeat this week, boosted by higher supply and demand after a week-long holiday, while discounts widened in Indonesia on higher London prices, traders said on Thursday.

Markets in Vietnam and Indonesia were closed last week for the Lunar New Year holidays. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam’s largest coffee-growing region, sold beans at 129,500-130,500 dong ($5.14-$5.18) per kg. The prices were at 121,500-122,500 dong before the holidays.

LIFFE robusta coffee for March settled up $98 at $5,646 per metric ton, as of Wednesday’s close. “The market is upbeat as farmers have started to sell as they fear prices would drop,” a trader based in the coffee belt said, adding demand was also healthy.

- Vietnam's domestic coffee market was upbeat this week, boosted by higher supply and demand after a week-long holiday, while discounts widened in Indonesia on higher London prices, traders said on Thursday.

Markets in Vietnam and Indonesia were closed last week for the Lunar New Year holidays.

Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing region, sold beans at 129,500-130,500 dong per kg. The prices were at 121,500-122,500 dong before the holidays.

LIFFE robusta coffee for March settled up $98 at $5,646 per metric ton, as of Wednesday's close.

"The market is upbeat as farmers have started to sell as they fear prices would drop," a trader based in the coffee belt said, adding demand was also healthy.

According to the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam, although supplies built up post holidays, supply was limited compared to market demand.

"Any changes in President Trump's tariff policies on imports from South America will have a strong impact on global coffee prices, including Vietnam," Nguyen Ngoc Quynh, deputy head of the agency, said.

"If it happens, it is likely that green beans prices will set a new record next week."

Traders also offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount of $250 to the May LIFFE contract.

In Indonesia's Lampung province, discounts to March-April contracts widened to $420 this week from discounts of $240-$250 to the March contract two weeks ago due to high benchmark prices in London.

Another trader offered a $400 discount to the May contract this week, versus a $240 discount for the same contract two weeks earlier.

Jan 30 - Coffee's record highs continue as it approaches $4 per lb (Reuters)
- The relentless coffee price rally continued on Thursday as arabica futures on the ICE exchange hit a new record approaching $4 per lb on extremely tight supplies and fears over the outlook for the coming crop. Arabica coffee futures in New York , used as a benchmark to price deals around the world, hit an all-time high of $3.7685 per lb earlier in the day, up more than 15% already this year. They closed up 1.9% at $3.734 per lb.

- Dealers said exchange data shows that top roasters such as Nestle and JDE Peet's are under-bought and still have much buying to do while speculators remain bullish on coffee.

- Supplies remain extremely tight in Brazil after severe drought last year dented forecasts for the coming crop. Brazil produces nearly half the world's arabica.
"The real story is that supply has fallen much faster than demand. It really is that simple," said Trishul Mandana, managing director for Volcafe, one of the world's largest coffee traders.
"The tightness in Brazil and the current differentials are telling us the real story of the 24/25 crop - and which will no doubt quickly lead to the disappearance of certs (arabica-certified stocks at ICE). And things could get messy rather quickly," Mandana added.
Certified arabica stocks started to diminish quickly in recent days, falling nearly 100,000 bags to around 900,000 bags.
There has been some hope that the situation in Brazil for the new crop might not be as bad as previously feared, thanks to rains over the past few months, but dealers said the latest weather forecasts have made people nervous again.

"Below-average rainfall in some (Brazilian) regions has once again fuelled fears," trader Icona Cafe said in a report, citing forecasts for longer periods of dry weather and rising temperatures in key coffee regions over the next few weeks.

- Supplies are also tight in robusta coffee, which is to some extent fungible with arabica even though it is used generally to make instant coffee rather than roast and ground blends.
Robusta coffee rose 2.2% at $5,734 a ton a metric ton, just shy of an all-time high for the contract.
Farmers in Vietnam, the world's top robusta producer, are holding back sales in anticipation of further price gains while a sharp slowdown in trade and shipping is expected at the end of January because of Lunar New Year celebrations.

- In other soft commodities, New York cocoa futures fell 4.6% to $11,207 a ton while London cocoa lost 3.5% to 8,817 pounds per ton.
Raw sugar was little changed at 19.47 cents per lb, while white sugar was stable at $522.70 a ton.

Jan 29 - Brazil's coffee production to fall 4.4% in 2025, Conab says
Brazil's 2025 coffee output is expected to total 51.8 million 60-kg bags, national food supply agency Conab said on Tuesday, a 4.4% drop compared to the previous year as adverse weather conditions affected yields. Conab's first estimate for this year's crop comes as global coffee prices hit record highs amid concerns about supplies from Brazil, where farmers remain reluctant to sell given doubts over the upcoming crop and hopes for still higher prices.

Jan 29 - Coffee prices surge to record highs above $3.60 per lb (Reuters)
- Global arabica coffee prices hit record highs above $3.60 per lb on Wednesday as Brazil, by far the world's largest producer, has few beans left to sell and as worries over its upcoming harvest persist. Dealers said 70%-80% of Brazil's current arabica harvest has been sold and new trades are slow. Brazil produces nearly half the world's arabica beans, a high-end variety typically used in roast and ground blends.

- The country's recent weather has been more favorable after a severe drought last year. Still, the upcoming crop will be 4.4% smaller than the previous, according to Brazilian food supply agency Conab.
"Global coffee supplies remain limited. Vietnam is progressing slowly with sales of its robusta crop. The arabica harvested in Central America and Colombia is taking longer to get to the market, and Brazilian farmers don't show much interest in selling more," said broker HedgePoint Global Markets on Wednesday.

- Arabica coffee futures on the ICE exchange , a contract used globally to price physical coffee trades, hit a record high of $3.6945 per lb earlier, bringing gains for the year up nearly 15%. The contract later closed up 2.5% at $3.6655 per lb.

- Robusta coffee , a generally cheaper variety used mostly to make instant coffee, rose 0.9% at $5,609 a metric ton. Coffee exports from India, the world's fifth largest robusta producer, are expected to decline more than 10% in 2025 due to lower production and reduced carry-forward stocks from last season's crop. Dealers said farmers in both India and Vietnam, the world's top robusta producer, are holding back sales in anticipation of further price gains and that in Brazil, some 80-90% of the current harvest has been sold.

- Broker Sucden said in a report that Brazilian farmers are also prioritizing local sales over dollar-priced exports even though the latter fetch more money as their financial position has improved significantly over the past two years. It added the country's current buffer stocks have eroded to an estimated 500,000 bags versus some 8 million bags traditionally, meaning any additional weather disruptions could have an outsized impact on global coffee prices.
Sucden sees the global coffee market recording a fourth successive deficit this season.

- In other soft commodities traded, raw sugar rose 1.1% at 19.45 cents per lb, rebounding strongly from last week's five-month low, while white sugar gained 2.2% at $522.90 a ton.
New York cocoa futures rose 3.3% to $11,745 a ton, while London cocoa gained 1.6% to 9,138 pounds per ton.

Jan 24 - Coffee prices hit record highs amid Brazil supply concerns
Coffee futures on the Intercontinental Exchange rose to record high prices on Thursday, supported by strong demand and concerns about supplies from Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter. Front-month arabica coffee on ICE, the global benchmark for coffee prices, rose more than 2% in early trading to hit an all-time high of $3.489 per lb. It settled up 0.6% at $3.4395 per lb.

Jan 23 - Vietnam prices rise despite slow trade ahead of holiday (Reuters)

Vietnam coffee prices inched up this week in line with a surge in London prices, although traders said that local trade was tepid ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year break.
Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing region, sold beans at 121,500-122,500 dong ($4.85-$4.89), compared to 115,600-116,300 dong last week.

LIFFE robusta coffee for March RC2! settled up $189 at $5,452 per metric ton, as of Wednesday's close.
"The surge in London was due to tight supplies both from Vietnam and Brazil," a trader based in the coffee belt said.
"Although Vietnamese farmers are selling, the amount is not much. They already cashed in from durian and other fruit trees for the holiday," he added.

Another trader said that trade was tepid ahead of the Lunar New Year, which spans from Jan. 25 to Feb. 2. The Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam estimated that output this crop season was lower than the previous one but not as much as previously estimated.

In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans offered at a $240-$250 discount for March contract, compared with last week's $50 discount, due to the price rally in the London terminal, traders said.

Jan 21 - Ghana delayed delivery of 370,000 t of cocoa in the 2023/24 season, official says
Ghana has delayed the delivery of 370,000 metric tons of cocoa in the 2023/24 season due to poor output, its food and agribusiness minister-designate told a parliamentary committee Monday, up from the 350,000 tons previously reported by Reuters. The unprecedented move to delay delivery from the previous 2023/24 season to the ongoing season follows a sharp drop in production to a two-decade low, Eric Opoku said during his vetting process in parliament

Jan 20 - Sugar prices hit three-year lows as India allows exports (Reuters)

- Sugar prices hit their lowest in more than three years on Monday on news that India, the world's second largest producer of the sweetener, will allow 1 million metric tons of sugar exports in the current season that runs to end-September. Reuters reported on Sunday that New Delhi was set to allow the exports to support sugar mills and prop up local prices, which have come under pressure in recent months.

- Although there had been speculation for weeks that exports would be allowed, the decision surprised some traders as this season's production is expected to fall below consumption for the first time in eight years.
"The news is likely to keep pressure on global prices," said ING's head of commodities strategy Warren Patterson.
- White sugar futures on the ICE exchange , used as a global benchmark, hit $470.20 a ton earlier, their lowest since September 2021.
They later settled down 0.9% at $474.30, bringing losses for the year to more than 5%.

- Raw sugar futures did not trade due to a U.S. holiday, but closed down 1% at 18.22 cents per lb on Friday.
India's production could fall to around 27 million tons from 32 million tons last year and below annual consumption of more than 29 million tons, according to leading trade houses in the country. New Delhi did not allow exports in the previous season.

A Europe-based sugar industry analyst told Reuters he too expected India to produce around 27 million tons this season, but that one leading trade house had promoted the view output would be significantly higher. India's sugar mills expect next season's production to recover.

Sugar prices have also come under pressure on concern that Thailand may have more of the commodity to sell because of a halt to syrup exports to China.
Chinese authorities have asked Thailand to inspect dozens of factories before opening negotiations to lift a ban imposed last month on sugar syrup and premixed powder exports from the Southeast Asia nation.

Jan 07 - Coffee prices edge higher while sugar also gains
Coffee futures on ICE closed up on Tuesday in a market supported by a slowdown in shipments from major Asian producers, while sugar prices posted modest gains.

COFFEE

* Robusta coffee RC2! settled up $35, or 0.7%, at $5,019 a metric ton.
* "Prolonged shipping times to European destinations continue to put strain on global supply chains: coffee spends more time in transit since traffic in the Suez Canal remains extremely restricted," the International Coffee Organization said in a monthly report.
"Consequently, shipments of coffee between coffee-producing countries in Asia and consumer markets in Europe have become slower and more expensive," the report added.
* Vietnam exported 1.34 million metric tons of coffee in 2024, down 17.2% from the previous year.
* Arabica coffee futures on ICE KC2! rose 0.6% at $3.205 per lb.

SUGAR

* Raw sugar SB1! settled up 0.12 cent, or 0.6%, at 19.45 cents per lb.
* Dealers said the market had stabilised after falling sharply during the fourth quarter of 2024, though the scope for a significant recovery in prices appeared limited as rains improved the outlook for Brazil's cane crop.
* "We have seen an adjustment in ideas on the future Brazilian crop recently because of the rain, but low stocks still leave the market vulnerable for a price spike if weather were to disrupt Indian, Thai, or particularly Brazilian production going forward," said McDougall Global View Sugar Report.
* March white sugar SF1! was little changed at $507.60 a ton.

COCOA

* New York cocoa futures on ICE CC1! settled down $167, or 1.5%, to $11,210 a ton.
* Dealers said index funds would start rebalancing their portfolios this week and are likely to sell commodities that performed strongly in 2024, such as cocoa.
* The strong performance increased their weighting in indices and the selling is designed to restore balance to previous levels.
* London cocoa C1! fell 0.2% to 9,009 pounds per ton.
* Cocoa purchases in Ghana fell in December owing to election-related payment delays from the state marketing board and squeezed exporter financing, farmers and buyers told Reuters, voicing concern that delays could increase smuggling.

Jan 07 - Ivory Coast weather mixed for cocoa mid-crop farmers
Variable rainfall last week across Ivory Coast's main cocoa regions has contributed to a mixed outlook for the development of the April-to-September mid-crop as the main crop tails off, farmers said on Monday. In the western region of Soubre, where rains were well above average, farmers said the moisture would help cocoa trees flower from February, boosting hopes of a sustained and abundant mid-crop.

Jan 03 - About 50,000 tons of Ivorian cocoa smuggled to Guinea in Oct-Dec
A farmer holds an opened cocoa pod at a farm in Sinfra, Ivory Coast April 29, 2023.
Cocoa smuggling from Ivory Coast to Guinea is taking on worrying proportions, exporters told Reuters, estimating that some 50,000 metric tons - worth about $573 million at current global prices - were illegally transported between October and December. Ivorian cocoa smuggled across the border was worth 5,000 CFA francs ($7.95) per kilogram, while Ivory Coast's fixed price paid to cocoa farmers was set at 1,800 CFA francs per kg in September.

Jan 03 - Asia Coffee: Trading stays subdued in Vietnam, Indonesia due to holidays
Coffee trading in Vietnam and Indonesia remained subdued due to year-end holidays, with traders saying unusual rains in Vietnam’s coffee-growing area delaying harvest peak.

Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam’s largest coffee-growing region, sold beans for 118,700-119,500 dong ($4.66-$4.69) per kg, down from last week’s 122,500 dong. “The continuous rainy weather also affects beans quality as they cannot be dried and stored properly,” said a trader based in the coffee belt, adding that some 20% of the beans remained un-picked.

Robusta coffee settled down $46, or 1%, at $4,875 per metric ton on Tuesday, ahead of the holidays. “Vietnamese farmers tend to sell more beans ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. This year, although the financial pressure is not as high as in previous years, the export volume is expected to improve in the first half of January,” said Nguyen Ngoc Quynh, deputy head of the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam.

Indonesian markets were closed on Thursday. Sumatra robusta coffee bean exports rose 76.51% in November from a year earlier to 22,880.91 metric tons, local trade office data showed.

Jan 02 - Robusta coffee prices rise on Vietnam harvest delays (Reuters)

COFFEE

- Robusta coffee futures on ICE rose on Thursday as rains continued to delay the Vietnam harvest and heighten quality concerns.
- Robusta coffee gained 1.7% to $4,957 a metric ton by 1200 GMT, driven by the rain-hampered harvest in top producer Vietnam.
- "The continuous rainy weather also affects bean quality as they cannot be dried and stored properly," said a trader based in Vietnam's coffee belt, adding that 20% of beans remained unpicked.
- Arabica coffee futures on ICE rose 1.35% to $3.1910 per lb.

COCOA

- New York cocoa futures on ICE fell 0.4% to $11,631 a ton.
- Cocoa was the strongest-performing commodity in 2024, with the New York contract posting an annual gain of 178% and setting a record high of $12,931 a ton last month.
- Dealers said the market continued to be underpinned by concerns that dry weather in West Africa could lead to a fourth consecutive global deficit in the current 2024/25 season.
- No rain fell last week in most of Ivory Coast's main cocoa regions and farmers said on Monday that the dry weather could damage bean quality and tighten supply from February.
- London cocoa rose 0.25% to 9,166 pounds a ton.

SUGAR

- Raw sugar was up 0.5% at 19.35 cents per lb, edging away from the previous session's three-month low of 19.04 cents.
- Dealers said that recent weakness in Brazil's real currency remained a bearish factor. A weak real tempts exporters in Brazil to sell dollar-priced sugar because it raises returns in local currency terms.
- March white sugar rose 0.6% to $510.20 a ton.
- Indian mills have produced 9.54 million tons of sugar since the season began on Oct. 1, down 15.5% year on year, a leading industry body said on Thursday, with cane yields down in the three biggest producing states.

Dec 23 - Starbucks workers expand strike in US cities, including New York (Reuters)
- Starbucks workers have expanded their strike to four more U.S. cities, including New York, the union representing over 10,000 baristas said late on Saturday. The five-day strike, which began on Friday and initially closed Starbucks cafes in Los Angeles, Chicago and Seattle, has added locations in New Jersey, New York, Philadelphia and St. Louis, Workers United said in a statement. It did not specify in what New Jersey city the walkout was occurring.

Starbucks said the disruptions from the strike have no significant impact on its operations because only a small handful of U.S. stores have been impacted.
"Workers United proposals call for an immediate increase in the minimum wage of hourly partners by 64%, and by 77% over the life of a three-year contract. This is not sustainable," the coffee chain said.
The union is striking in 10 cities, also including Columbus, Ohio, Denver and Pittsburgh, during the busy holiday season that may impact the company's Christmas sales.

The group did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment on the number of stores on strike on Monday. The company operates more than 11,000 stores in the United States, employing about 200,000 workers. Talks between Starbucks and the union hit an impasse with unresolved issues over wages, staffing and schedules, leading to the strike. Workers United warned on Friday that the strike could reach "hundreds of stores" by Tuesday, Christmas Eve. Starbucks began negotiations with the union in April. It said this month it had conducted more than eight bargaining sessions, during which 30 agreements had been reached.

Dec 20 - Mexican sugar exports to US could cease if tariff is applied, says report
Mexican sugar exports to the United States could cease if the incoming Trump administration goes ahead with the idea of applying a 25% tariff on Mexican sugar, broker and supply chain services provider Czarnikow said in a report on Thursday. President-elect Donald Trump pledged to impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico if the countries do not change policies on trade of products such as pharmaceuticals and do not act to control illegal immigration.

Dec 17 - Cocoa Closes at New Record -- DJ Market Talk
- Cocoa futures on the ICE settled at a record-high, gaining 4% to $11,765 per metric ton. This beats the April record of $11,461 a ton. Cocoa settled higher for the past eight trading sessions. The harvest from the Ivory Coast has been strong since it started in October, says Commerzbank in a note -- but drought issues may again emerge heading into the new year. "There are also concerns that harvest volumes could level off in the coming months," the firm says. "The Harmattan winds coming from the Sahara between December and March could exacerbate the problem."

Dec 16 - Brazil's robusta coffee state expects to repeat large exports in 2025
Brazil's top robusta coffee producer, the state of Espirito Santo, expects to repeat in 2025 the large export volume it achieved this year, when the country became an alternative for supplies from Vietnam, the world's largest robusta grower. Espirito Santo state accounted for 6.6 million bags of the total Brazilian robusta exports of 8.7 million bags from January to November, according to the Coffee Commerce Center of Vitoria, the industry group gathering market participants in the state.

Dec 12 - Brazil's top coffee roasters to hike prices from next year
Brazil's top coffee roasters including JDE Peet's, are set to hike prices domestically from early next year after adverse weather caused raw bean prices to spike. Global prices for raw coffee soared to record highs this week and are up some 80% this year as adverse weather in Brazil and Vietnam, the world's top coffee growers, has hit the crop outlook, with consumers internationally likely to feel the pinch by as early as the end of March.

Dec 11 - India sugar output to rebound to record next year, could revive exports
India is likely to produce a record amount of sugar in the next marketing year from October after millions of farmers expanded cane cultivation, encouraged by ample water supplies and declining prices of competing crops, farmers and industry officials told Reuters. The rebound in production would allow the world's second-largest sugar producer to resume exports in 2025/26, they said, after a lack of rain cut cane yields and led to two years of restrictions.

Dec 06 - Asia coffee: Supply remains limited in Vietnam (Reuters)

Trading activity was dull in Vietnam as fresh coffee beans from the 2024/25 harvest were yet to arrive in bulk, while premiums rose in Indonesia on global cues, traders said on Thursday.

Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam’s largest coffee-growing region, sold beans for 105,000-110,000 dong ($4.14-$4.33) per kg, down from last week’s 127,500-128,200 dong. “The London prices are so volatile.

Both farmers and traders are cautious with their move at the moment,” said a trader based in the coffee belt. “Beans may come in bulk in 10-15 days. Farmers have just harvested 30% of their crop.”

In the coffee capital of Dak Lak, many farmers experienced a decrease in yield by up to 50% due to a prolonged heat wave at the beginning of the year, the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam said in a note this week. Robusta coffee for March delivery settled up $147 at $4,751 per metric ton as of Wednesday’s close.

Dec 05 - Why are coffee prices trading near half-century highs ? (Reuters)

- Global coffee prices have soared to their highest in nearly 50 years due to poor weather in Brazil and Vietnam, forcing roasters such as Nestle to raise prices and consumers to hunt for cheaper brews amid the cost of living crisis. Spiking prices will benefit farmers with the crop this year, but challenge traders who face crippling hedging costs on exchanges and a scramble to receive the beans they pre-bought.

- WHAT DRIVES PRICES?
Production problems linked to bad weather in Brazil and Vietnam have seen global supplies lagging demand for three years. That has left stocks depleted and driven benchmark ICE exchange prices to a peak of $3.36 per lb. Last time coffee traded that high was in 1977 when snow destroyed swathes of Brazil's plantations. However, the shock to consumers was much bigger back then. If adjusted for inflation, $3.36 per lb in 1977 would be equivalent to $17.68 today. Experts are meanwhile predicting yet another year of lacklustre coffee output.
Brazil, which produces nearly half the world's arabica - high-end beans used primarily in roast and ground blends - experienced one of its worst droughts on record this year.
Although rains finally arrived in October, soil moisture remains low and experts say the trees are producing too many leaves and too few of the flowers that turn into cherries.
In Vietnam, which produces some 40% of the robusta beans typically used to make instant coffee, a severe drought earlier this year was followed by excess rains since October.
Consultancy StoneX sees Brazil's arabica output falling 10.5% to 40 million bags next year, offset somewhat by higher robusta output, thus cutting the country's overall crop by 0.5%.
In Vietnam, the crop could shrink up to 10% in the year by the end of September 2025, adding to the global robusta shortage.

- WHY ARE TRADERS WORRIED?
Brazil-based traders Atlantica and Cafebras are seeking court-supervised debt restructuring due to coffee price surges, crippling hedging costs and delivery delays.
Court-supervised debt restructuring precedes bankruptcy if the negotiation is not successful.
Traders who buy beans from local suppliers like Atlantica and Cafebras typically take short positions in the futures market to hedge their physical market exposure.
Fearing they might no longer get their physical coffee, many traders are closing out what have become loss-making short futures positions.
Closing out short positions involves buying or going long futures, which in turn drives prices even higher.
Higher futures prices then push up margin calls or downpayments that traders are required to pay to protect against trading losses, thereby creating more stress in the industry.

- IMPACT ON ROASTERS AND CONSUMERS
Surging coffee prices are a problem for roasters.
The boss of Nestle, the world's biggest coffee firm, was ousted earlier this year after the board grew unhappy about weak sales and a loss of market share due to price rises, which prompted consumers to switch to cheaper brands. Roasters tend to buy coffee many months in advance, which means consumers will likely see the price spike in 6 to 12 months.
Consumers who drink out will feel less of a pinch of today's rising prices.
Roasters like Starbucks that sell mostly to cafes should fare better as the global coffee price accounts for only about 1.4% of the total price of a typical $5 cup of coffee in a cafe.

Dec 05 - Ivory Coast cocoa exporters fear drop in supplies after poor weather.
Multinational cocoa exporters operating in Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, fear a drop in supplies from farmers in the coming months after adverse weather hit crops, raising the prospect that some of them might default on contracts. So far this season, the volume of beans arriving at ports is up 34% on the same time in 2023-24.

Dec 02 - Costa Rica coffee exports jumped 79% in October (ICAFE)
Coffee exports from Costa Rica leapt 79% in October versus the same month in 2023, according to data from the national coffee institute ICAFE, which was published on Saturday. Costa Rican coffee growers exported 38,162 60-kilogram bags in October, the first month of the 2024-2025 coffee calendar, representing an increase of 16,877 bags versus the 2023-2024 coffee calendar, ICAFE said.

Nov 19 - Value of Uganda's coffee exports jump 76% in October
The value of Uganda's coffee exports jumped 76.3% in October from a year ago, helped by a surge in global prices of the commodity, the state-run regulator said. Uganda shipped 496,820 60-kilogram bags of coffee in October, earning $139.05 million, the Ugandan Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) said in a report published late on Monday.

Nov 12 - Brazil coffee exports hit record in October
Brazil exported 4.57 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in October, industry group Cecafe said on Monday, reaching the highest for any month on record. The shipments from Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer and exporter, rose 10.5% in October from a year earlier, according to Cecafe. The previous monthly record was set in November 2020, it added.

Nov 08 - Sugar prices drop by up to 8.5% (USC)

The Utility Stores Corporation (USC) on Thursday reduced the prices of sugar across the country,
The Utility Stores Corporation has cut the price of sugar by 13 rupees per kilogram, bringing the new price to 140 rupees per kilogram, effective immediately.

Previously, sugar was being sold at 153 rupees per kilogram at the Utility Stores.

The corporation had requested sugar mills to lower the price of sugar, and in response, the sugar mill owners agreed to reduce the price by 17 rupees per kilogram.

After receiving this rebate from the mills, the Utility Stores Corporation passed on the reduction to consumers.

The Utility Stores had purchased 12,000 metric tons of sugar at a price of 137 rupees per kilogram. However, after adding additional costs, the corporation ended up paying around 152 rupees per kilogram for the sugar.

Earlier, Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz Sharif has forecasted a significant increase in wheat and rice production in the province.

She highlighted a potential 30% rise in wheat output, along with a boost in rice exports, which are expected to reach $5 billion this year.

The government is also focusing on off-season cultivation of crops like tomatoes and onions, along with providing farmers with subsidized seeds, machinery, and guidance to enhance agricultural productivity.

Nov 06 - Brazil's sugar exports up to October already set a new annual record, says SECEX

Brazil's sugar exports in the year to October have already set a new annual record, surpassing the 2023 mark, according to data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex), in a global market in which India has restricted its shipments and increased imports of the Brazilian commodity.

The foreign sales bans adopted by India, the world's second largest producer behind Brazil, have also brought more demand to the South American country's mills, which account for around 70% of global raw sugar exports, Argus noted.

In addition, Indonesia has increased its purchases and has become the largest destination for the Brazilian product, surpassing China, according to data from the Brazilian government up to September. Egypt and the United Arab Emirates also increased their purchases from Brazil.

The full figures for the volumes exported in October will be released on Wednesday by the government secretariat. But the totals already computed by Secex up to the fourth week of the month indicate a total export of 31.7 million tons.

This volume exceeds Brazil's total sugar exports of 31.3 million tons for the whole of 2023, according to official figures.

Total sugar exports up to the fourth week of October had amounted to 3.29 million tons. Considering the volumes for the fifth week, shipments will be even higher. This is in addition to the 28.4 million tons registered by the country between January and September.

In addition to the additional demand, Brazil relied on stocks from last year's record harvest to increase its exports in 2024, allowing for robust shipments in the first months of the year.

The increase in exports comes amid a smaller sugarcane crop in Brazil compared to last season's record, according to the National Supply Company (Conab).
"The increase in Brazilian exports in 2024 was driven by restrictions on Indian sugar exports in November 2023," Argus said in a note to Reuters.

India, the world's largest consumer and second largest producer of sugar, limited its exports after losses due to the weather.
"With India out of the international export market, Brazil sent more sugar volumes both to India and to other places that used to import from the Asian country," concluded the consultancy.

From January to September, Brazil exported 2.2 million tons of sugar to India, up 72% on the same period last year, according to data from Argus, cited in the report, and the Brazilian government.

Exports to Indonesia totaled 2.6 million tons in the first nine months of the year, roughly triple the volume shipped between January and September 2023.

Exports to the United Arab Emirates almost tripled in the nine months to approximately 2.1 million tons, compared to 731,800 tons in the same period last year, according to government data.

Egypt, meanwhile, imported 1.6 million tons of Brazilian sugar up to September, more than double the figure for the same period last year.

Nov 05 - Brazil millers say current sugar prices limit production growth
Current reference prices for raw sugar are not high enough to justify investment in new plants, and marginal gains in production from adjustments to existing plants are close to the limit, said Brazilian millers on Monday. Sugar demand continues to grow around 2% per year, while production has suffered due to factors such as climate change and biofuel blending policies such as in India.

Nov 05 - Ghana’s cocoa purchases smooth under new funding model, Cocobod CEO says
Cocoa purchases in the world's number two producer Ghana have been smooth and orderly in the 2024/25 crop season under a new funding model that requires global traders to pay upfront for part of bean shipments, the head of the sector regulator Cocobod said on Monday. Starting in September, Cocobod replaced a previous three-decade-old system where the regulator financed bean purchases from farmers with an annual syndicated loan from international banks.

Oct 28 - Brazil's sugar output up 8% in early October, UNICA says
Sugar production in Brazil's key center-south region totaled 2.44 million metric tons in the first half of October, industry group UNICA said on Friday, an 8% increase when compared with a year earlier. Sugarcane crushing in the period rose 2.75% to 33.83 million tons, UNICA said in a report.

Oct 10 - Rain-affected roads slow cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports
Damage inflicted by heavy rains on roads in Ivory Coast's west, southwest and coastal regions is hampering the harvest, drying and transportation of cocoa beans to ports, exporters and buyers have told Reuters. Six exporters, five cooperatives and six buyers said cocoa arrivals at ports are down and the quality of beans has significantly deteriorated.

Oct 04 - Delay in EU anti-deforestation enforcement leaves little time to make changes (Euractiv)

The European Commission has proposed a one-year extension to the transition period for enforcing the EU's anti-deforestation regulation (EUDR), following months of pressure from member states, trade partners, and stakeholders.

The law applies to soy, livestock, palm oil, coffee, cocoa, rubber and timber produced both inside and outside the EU.

After weeks of speculation, the Commission made a formal proposal on Wednesday (2 October) to extend the transition period by 12 months, to "serve as a phase-in period to ensure proper and effective implementation".
Thomas Waitz, the coordinator of the Greens/EFA group in the European Parliament's Agriculture Committee, said the extension should allow companies to implement the rules by next year.
"With the EU Deforestation Regulation's extended deadline, all companies should be able to implement it by next year. There are no more excuses. The regulation must not be watered down by the postponement," he added.

A coalition of cocoa companies including Nestlé, Ferrero, Mondelēz, Mars, Tony's Chocolonely and NGOs such as the Rainforest Alliance and Solidaridad "strongly oppose" calls to reopen the substance of the EUDR during the upcoming negotiations.

Oct 03 - Vietnam prices ease on global cues, tepid trade (Reuters)

- Vietnam's coffee market remained tepid as traders awaited new supplies from the 2024/25 harvest, with local prices falling following a drop in Robusta futures on the ICE, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans for 116,200-117,200 dong ($4.70-$4.74) per kg, compared to 120,000-120,800 dong last week.

Robusta coffee LRCc2 for November delivery settled down$317, or 6%, at $4,862 per metric ton as of Wednesday's close.
"The proposed European Commission delay in the rollout of its anti-deforestation law caused a huge drop in London prices, together with supportive news about favourable weather in Brazil," said a trader based in the coffee belt.

The Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV) said activities should be more robust in November.
"The market still expects lower output in the 2024/25 crop," said Nguyen Ngoc Quynh, deputy chief of the MXV.

- In Indonesia, Sumatra Robusta coffee beans were offered at $200 discount to the October contract, compared with a $450 discount last week, one trader said.
Beans were quoted offered at $60 premium to the November contract, the trader said, while another trader said beans were offered at a $200 discount.
"The price adjusted because London terminal price dropped too much last night," the second trader said. Indonesia exported 19,055.1 metric tons of Sumatra robusta coffee beans in August, up 18% from the same month last year, local trade data showed.

Sep 27 - Vietnam coffee prices fall ahead of new harvest (Reuters)

Traders said the weather until now remained supportive for the trees but trade was quiet.
Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam’s largest coffee-growing area, sold beans for 120,000-120,800 dong ($4.87-$4.91) per kg, down from last week’s 123,000-123,400 dong range. Traders said the weather until now remained supportive for the trees but trade was quiet.
“Some traders have started to seek for beans but in a very cautious manner as some have been still facing financial issues since late last year when the prices started to skyrocket, while others are unsure about weather condition in the upcoming days,” a trader who is based in the coffee belt said.

The Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV) said some coffee-growing areas had begun to harvest early ripe beans and offered them at 120,000 dong per kg.
“It is expected the prices of the new crop season would remain high as output decreases and demand from the main market, Europe, improves,” it said in a note earlier this week.

Robusta coffee for November delivery settled down$160, or 3%, at $5,152 per metric tonne, as of Wednesday’s close.

- Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount range of $200-$250 per tonne to the January contract.

- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at a discount range of $450-$500 to the October contract and a discount of $250 to the November contract, a trader said. It was a $300-$400 discount range last week to the November contract. Another trader quoted a $450 discount to the November contract, compared with a $300 discount to the same contract last week.
"Buyers, both domestic and foreign ones, backed out as they have full stocks," the second trader said.

Sep 27 - Cocoa-hoarding in Ivory Coast curtailed by regulator's threat of sanctions
Ivory Coast's Coffee and Cocoa Council regulator has significantly curbed the hoarding of beans in September, due to the threat of sanctions against buyers and cooperatives, sources within the CCC, exporters, and buyers told Reuters on Thursday. Cocoa bean arrivals at the Ivorian ports of Abidjan and San Pedro exceeded 50,000 tons in the first three weeks of September, a significant increase from around 19,000 tons recorded for the entire month of September in 2023.

Sep 20 - Vietnam, Indonesia flip to discounts on high London prices (Reuters)

Vietnam and Indonesia have reduced coffee export prices to discounts against international benchmarks due to rising robusta prices in London and supply concerns in Vietnam. In Vietnam's Central Highlands, farmers sold beans at higher prices, but low output forecasts for 2024 may lead to the lowest export levels in 13 years. Meanwhile, Indonesia's Sumatra robusta coffee beans are also being offered at discounts, reflecting decreased demand from buyers. The new crop season in Vietnam is set to begin next month, with harvesting expected to start in Kon Tum.

- Vietnam and Indonesia coffee export prices slipped to discounts against the international benchmark this week as robusta prices in London rose amid supply worries in Vietnam and shrinking demands in Indonesia, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam’s largest coffee-growing area, sold beans for 123,000-123,400 dong ($5.00-$5.02), up from last week’s 121,000-121,500 dong range. According to traders, some parts of the coffee belt recorded rains due to the tropical depression that hit central Vietnam, though trees remained unharmed. New crop season in Vietnam will officially start from next month.

The Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV) said coffee exports in 2024 may fall to the lowest level in 13 years on low output due to weather impacts.
“Some traders in the Central Highlands have started to buy beans from farmers but the volume is not much due to high prices,” MXV said in a statement.

“Normally beans will be harvested first in Kon Tum then Gia Lai and other provinces.”
Robusta coffee (LRCc2) for November delivery settled up $31, or 1%, at $5,334 per metric ton, as of Wednesday’s close.

- Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount range of $150-$180 per ton to the November contract.

- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans offered at a discount rate of $300-$400 to the November contract, compared with the $280 premium last week “due to the shrinking appetite from buyers”, one trader said.
Another trader also quoted $300 discount to the November contract. It was a $70 premium last week.

“This is an extraordinary drop,” the second trader said.

Sep 20 - Trader Wilmar cuts its estimate for Brazil sugar output
Singapore-based commodities trader Wilmar cut its projection for Brazil's centre-south sugar production to a range between 38.8 million and 40.8 million metric tons on Thursday from its initial estimate of 42 million tons. Wilmar said it had revised its projection due to the drought and farmland fires that have hurt production in Brazil.

Sep 19 - Coffee growers look to postpone EU deforestation requirementThe world's top coffee body is set to request that the European Union postpone a requirement that imported beans come from areas not linked with deforestation, the group's head said on Wednesday. The rule, set to take effect at the end of the year, would ban sales of coffee - as well as cocoa, soy, palm oil, wood, rubber and cattle - if companies are unable to prove the product comes from an area where forests haven't been cut down in recent years.

Sep 18 - Costa Rica sees 2024/25 coffee harvest up nearly 6%
Costa Rica's 2024/25 coffee harvest should produce some 1.70 million bushels of coffee, an expert from the Central American country's ICAFE coffee institute said on Tuesday, up 5.6% from 1.61 million bushels a year ago after a difficult past year. Coffee typically produces higher yields in alternating years, and last season's harvest was down 16% from the previous period due to unusual weather and a limited workforce available to pick the coffee, also bringing exports down 6.5%.

Sep 17 - Ghana lost 160,000 tons of cocoa to smuggling in 2023/24 season, Cocobod official says
Ghana has lost more than a third of its 2023/24 cocoa output to smuggling, a top official from the cocoa marketing board (Cocobod) told Reuters, as low local prices and payment delays push some farmers to sell to increasingly sophisticated trafficking rings. Poor harvests in Ghana and Ivory Coast, the world's second largest and largest producers, have pushed markets into a four-year supply deficit, driving up global cocoa and chocolate prices this year.

Sep 13 - Global cocoa stocks drop to 50-year low, 2024/25 output seen recovering - ICCO
The global cocoa stocks-to-grinding ratio has dropped to its lowest in almost 50 years amid a steep decline in output which has boosted prices to all-time highs this year, but production could recover from next month, a senior industry official said on Thursday. World cocoa stocks tumbled to 1.32 million metric tons in July, from 1.79 million tons in September last year, said Michel Arrion, executive director of the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO).

Sep 12 - Prices edge up slightly in Vietnam, crops unharmed after typhoon Yagi (Reuters)

Vietnam's domestic coffee prices rose slightly on Thursday from a week earlier, with the Central Highland coffee crops unharmed in the aftermath of typhoon Yagi, while trading is expected to remain subdued until the harvest season next month. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans for 121,000-121,500 dong ($4.93-$4.95) per kg, compared with 119,000-120,500 dong a week ago.

Robusta coffee for November delivery settled up $111, or 2%, at $5,008 per metric ton, as of Wednesday's close.

Typhoon Yagi, Asia's most powerful storm this year, made landfall in northern Vietnam last weekend and created huge damage, but coffee trees in the Central Highlands were unharmed.
"London prices have gained significantly since the beginning of this week, partly due to news on typhoon Yagi and data from Vietnamese authorities on lower coffee exports," a trader based in the coffee belt said.
"The weather in the coffee belt remains favourable for the trees."
Another trader said farmers had started to prepare for the harvest, which begins next month, while some traders also started seeking new beans.

- Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a premium of $50 per ton to the November contract, and a discount of $30-$50 per ton to the January contract.
Vietnam's coffee exports in the first eight months of this year were 1.056 million tons, down 12.1% from a year earlier, customs data showed.

- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at a $280 premium to the November contract, up from the $220 premium last week to the September-October contracts.
"It was because of lower coffee supplies," one trader said. Another trader quoted beans at a $130 premium to the November contract, a drop from last week's $200 premium as "an adjustment to the prices on the London terminal".

Sep 06 - Ghana begins pilot program to trace cocoa as EU deforestation law looms, official says
Ghana is piloting a system that traces cocoa beans from farm to port as it gears up for a new EU law banning the import of commodities linked to deforestation, a government official said on Thursday. The landmark new law, which could in time reshape global commodity markets, comes into effect end of December.

Sep 06 - Vietnam prices flat amid lacklustre trade until next harvest (Reuters)

- Vietnam's domestic coffee prices were little changed on Thursday from a week earlier, with trading expected to remain subdued until the next harvest in October, traders said.
Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans for 65,000-66,000 dong ($2.70-$2.74) per kg, slightly up from last week's 64,900-66,000 dong.
"Stocks are also running out. We are in the last month of the crop season so trade is muted," said a trader based in the coffee belt. "Beans are likely to come from November if everything goes well."

- November robusta coffee settled up $3, at $2,456, as of Wednesday's close, while the January contract settled down $7 at $2,360.

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount of $30-$70 per tonne to the January contract.

- Meanwhile, Indonesian Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at a $500 premium to the November contract this week, unchanged from a week ago.
"The harvest is done now. Coffee supplies are very limited," one trader said. Another trader quoted beans at a $500-$520 premium this week to the October contract, the same as last week.

Aug 26 - Ghana's Cocobod to ask traders to pre-finance bean purchases in new funding model
Ghana's cocoa marketing board, Cocobod, is fine-tuning a new funding model for bean purchases that will require global traders to deposit at least 60% of the value of their forward contracts at the start of the season, two sources told Reuters. The new system will replace a three-decade old pre-export syndicated loan from international banks, which Cocobod said this week it would not raise for its 2024/25 cocoa season for the first time since 1992.

Aug 15 - Frosts hit coffee areas in Brazil
Brazil‘s coffee fields have faced the biggest cold front of the year in recent days, causing frosts in some regions, especially in the Cerrado Mineiro and Alta Mogiana. However, the overall impact was less severe compared with 2021, when frosts impacted 60% of the coffee production, according to a local farmer.

The Brazilian trader Bourbon Speciality Coffees observed that “some plants in Cerrado were damaged, especially in the higher part, but the damage was low, with a maximum estimate of 5% loss in the affected areas. Although yields may be slightly impacted, the situation is not serious.”

Coffee futures were immediately impacted by this adversity, with the September arabica contract increasing by 2.9% on the day to $2.4085 per pound on 12 August. Similarly, robusta coffee rose by 4.8% to $4,532 per metric ton.

According to a local industry source, the coffee harvest in Brazil is almost complete and the harvesting of beans that have fallen from the ground is set to begin. He explained that the dry climate during this process is important to prevent the grains from rotting on the ground. Although drought is beneficial to this process, any delay in the arrival of spring rains can cause concern in the market as it may affect the flowering of the coffee plants.

Aug 12 - Light frosts reported in some Brazil coffee areas
Farmers and local media reported the occurrence of light frosts in coffee producing areas in Brazil in the early hours of Sunday as an unusually strong cold mass for this time of the year advances from the South to central areas in the country. Farmers posted videos on social media of light frosts in the Cerrado Mineiro region, the second most important producing region of top Brazilian coffee grower Minas Gerais. There were no reports of frosts in the main coffee area of South Minas.

Aug 09 - Asia Coffee-Vietnam domestic prices rebound; supplies tighten in Indonesia (Reuters)

- Higher demand from global buyers and lack of domestic supply pushed up prices in Vietnam this week, while supply in Indonesia is expected to dip as the harvest there draws to a close.
Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee growing area, sold coffee at 35,000 dong ($1.51) per kg , slightly up from 34,600 dong a week earlier.
"Prices have bounced back in the past two weeks as demand remains high while stocks at farmers' warehouses have almost run out," a trader based in the province of Dak Lak said. "But I don't see any factors that can push the prices higher."

During the past two days, heavy rains have hit several parts of the Central Highlands and are expected to continue for the next few days, the National Meteorological and Hydrological Center said on Thursday. No crop damages have been reported. Traders said up to now, the weather had been favourable for baby cherries to grow well.

The next harvest season in Vietnam will start in October.
Traders in Vietnam offered the 5% black and broken grade 2 robusta at a $200 premium per tonne to the September contract, widening from $140 of last week.

The International Coffee Organization on Wednesday raised its forecast for global coffee production in 2018/19 to 168.77 million 60-kg bags from the previously expected of 167.75 million.
Meanwhile, Indonesian robusta beans were offered with $170-$200 premium to November contract, traders in Sumatra's Lampung province said. That compared to a range of $150-$200 premium to September contract last week.

Aug 08 - Asia Coffee Market Quiet in Vietnam on Bean Scarcity, Indonesia Premiums Down (Reuters)

- Coffee trading activities in Vietnam remained tepid at the end of the crop season due to a shortage of beans and high prices, while Indonesian premiums for November deliveries edged down significantly on abundant supplies, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 122,000-123,000 dong ($4.85-$4.89), lower than 123,000-123,500 dong a week ago.
"No one is willing to buy at that high price. Those who are desperate for beans can turn to Indonesia instead," a trader based in the coffee belt said.
"It is 2-3 months until the new harvest, activities will be better by then."

- Robusta coffee for November delivery settled up $96 at $4,286 per metric ton as of Wednesday's close.
"European importers are aware of the scarcity in Vietnam, although their demands have shown signs of recovery, they are not buying from Vietnam. Therefore, export activities will stay this lacklustre until the new harvest," the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam said in a note earlier this week.

In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at $320 premium to the September contract, lower than last week's $470 premium, as "local supply is abundant from the main harvest season", one trader based in the region said. Another trader quoted $50 premium to the November contract, a huge drop from $403 premium last week.
($1 = 25,143 dong)

Jul 18 - Trade remains quiet in Vietnam, supplies build up in Indonesia (Reuters)-Trading activity in Vietnam remained sluggish amid low supplies and high asking prices, while premiums fell in Indonesia as supplies are building up there, traders said on Thursday.Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 127,000-127,700 dong ($5.00-$5.02) per kg, unchanged from last week."It is four months away until the next harvest however there is not much coffee left," said a trader based in the coffee belt. "Trade is very tepid as no one is keen to buy at this high price."Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a premium of $500 per metric ton to the September contract."At the moment, I don't think domestic prices can surpass the 135,000 dong per kg mark. Sluggish coffee trading activities remain an obstacle," said Nguyen Ngoc Quynh, deputy chief of Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam.Indonesia's Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at $600 premium to the September contract this week, lower than the $750 premium to the August contract last week, a trader said. Another trader quoted a premium of $630 to the September contract, down from $770 a week ago, "as supply has improved"."There is a lot of coffee in the market thanks to ongoing harvest in the main producing areas in Lampung. The harvest is estimated to peak in July to August," the second trader added.Asep, a coffee farmer in Indonesia's Lampung province, said his coffee output rose to one ton per hectare this year, far above 200 kilograms last year as the weather was favourable.

Jul 12 - International coffee prices swelled roughly 20% last quarter amid extreme heat in major Asian coffee-growing regions, joining weather-driven rallies in such other commodities as rubber and natural gas.

Benchmark London robusta coffee futures were 18.1% higher at the end of June than at the end of March and hit an all-time high of $4,394 per tonne on June 6. Arabica coffee futures were up 20.6%.

The jump came even as the FTSE/CoreCommodity CRB Index, an international indicator for the wider commodity market, hovered around 290 at the end of June -- roughly flat compared with the end of March. Crude oil futures, a major component of the index, fell about 1% to 2% during that period.

Heat waves in Southeast Asia are the chief cause of the spike in coffee prices. Since April, average temperatures in Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines have been hotter than normal, running as high as 48 C.

Vietnam produces roughly 40% of the world's robusta coffee beans, which are used for instant coffee. But its coffee farmers face a severe drought. The dry spell has sparked concerns that the fall harvest will be impacted.
"The previous year's harvest of the robusta variety was poor, so prices have risen on concerns of a second consecutive year of lean harvests that would prolong the tight supply-demand balance," said Masanobu Takano, who works in coffee and tea at Kobe-based trading house S. Ishimitsu & Co.

The heat in Southeast Asia has also affected prices of natural rubber, a major export of Thailand and Indonesia. Rubber futures on the Osaka Exchange, an international benchmark, rose to 360.90 yen ($2.23) per kilogram on June 10, their highest point since mid-March.

Rubber production tends to slow down between March and May on reduced supply of the natural latex fluid it is made from. After this, supply usually increases, bringing prices down.

Jul 10 - Robusta coffee prices hit record high due to supply shortage (Reuters)

- Robusta coffee prices surged to a record high on Tuesday with the global market tightened by a slowdown in shipments from top producer Vietnam. The price of robusta beans has risen 63% this year, peaking on Tuesday at $4,667 a metric ton on the London-based ICE Futures Europe market. The market has been rising for about 18 months as global producers such as Vietnam struggle to keep pace with steadily rising demand. Prices climbed by 58% in 2023.

Demand for robusta has been growing as roasters switch out of arabica into the cheaper bean. Robusta is typically used to make instant coffee but it has also been increasingly added to roast coffee blends dominated by arabica.

Vietnam's coffee exports in June were just 70,202 tons, taking the cumulative total for the first half of this year to 893,820 tons, down 11.4% from a year earlier, customs data showed on Tuesday.
"This lower export performance for Vietnam during the month of June continues to reflect the tight internal market conditions within this largest robusta-producing nation," coffee trader I & M Smith said in a daily update. Coffee production in Vietnam almost tripled during the first two decades of this century, peaking at 31.58 million 60-kg bags in the 2021/22 season, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. The last couple of seasons, however, have produced smaller crops with the most recent harvest estimated by the USDA at 29 million bags. A further decline is widely forecast for the upcoming 2024/25 season.

Jul 09 - Demand for coffee has continued to grow globally despite rising prices (ICO-Reuters)

The International Coffee Organization this month estimated a rise of 2.2% in global coffee consumption in the 2023/24 season.
Trader I & M Smith said on Tuesday that many independent forecasts saw demand continuing to grow in 2024/25, albeit at a slightly slower pace of 1.25%.
"This growth is primarily driven by relatively new coffee consumer markets and producer countries such as China, India, Indonesia, the Middle East and Vietnam who have registered increased internal coffee consumption," the trader said.

The challenges faced by Vietnamese robusta producers have created an opportunity for Brazil, which grows mostly arabica beans but has been expanding production of robusta, a variety more resistant to dry weather.
"Brazil now is planting a lot and probably in a couple of years will became the most important country as regarding the production of robusta, more important than Vietnam," Giuseppe Lavazza, chairman of coffee company Lavazza told Reuters.

Brazil produced around 21.5 million bags of robusta coffee last year, a near record, and is harvesting what is expected by most analysts to be a larger crop, despite some early complaints by farmers about yields.
"I know that with these kind of prices they (Brazilian farmers) are running like crazy to produce more and more robusta," Lavazza said.

May 23 ended the last trading day of last week slightly firmer at GBP +8 at GBP 2009, a full GBP 2 lower than last Monday's open at GBP 2011. The week saw a volatile weekly pattern, with a high of GBP 2038 and a low of GBP 1989, where price fixing from the origin and occasional price hedging from the industry balanced each other out. In the end, not much happened in cocoa. The Commitment of Traders figures, as per the reporting deadline of 7 February, will not be published until further notice. In the grading room, one BDU Nigeria (fresh arrival) and one BDU Guinea (regrade) went under the knife on Friday. Both BDUs passed the test.