Softs News

Nov 28 - Unusual Ivory Coast rain could strengthen cocoa main crop - farmers
Above-average rain and some sun in most of Ivory Coast’s main cocoa regions last week could boost the October-to-March main-crop, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is in its dry season which runs from mid-November to March when rain is scarce.

Nov 27 - Gradual fall in Indian cumin seed prices (IHSmarkit)

 

• 7% m/m fall in spot prices
• China has not recorded imports in September
• Futures prices for the new crop have been around INR35,000-38,000/quintal

 

- Indian cumin seed spot prices averaged 45,981 Indian rupees per quintal ($5,519/metric ton) at the Unjha market (Gujarat, northwest) on 27 November 2023, 7% less month-on-month and 91% more year-on-year.

- Indian cumin seed exports reached 117,389 metric tons valued at $461.4 million in January-September 2023, 23% less y/y in volume and 18% more y/y in value, according to customs data. China, Bangladesh and the US were the main importers of whole cumin seeds (94% of the exported volume), accounting for 31%, 20% and 5%, respectively, of the volume.

- China was the driver of export growth from January-April but record prices have slowed its purchases. As soon as China has halted imports this September (0 records), the price has plummeted.

 

Nov 25 - Walnut exporters have had limited success raising prices (IHSmarkit)
 

• California walnut prices subjected to downward pressure again
• China’s efforts to hike walnut prices have also backfired
• Eastern European exporters benefiting from Christmas buying requirements

 

- The global walnut industry needs a way to cope with the general trend in nuts: crops have grown faster than demand, resulting in less returns to growers on each kg of product, according to Dutch broker Global Trading & Agency.

“This trend is not limited to certain growing areas but has its impact on basically all growing regions worldwide,” the company added.

 

- Global Trading & Agency added that in terms of actual market prices, this trend was already visible during the pandemic, “or actually already before that if we compare global availability versus pricing per kg.” Currently, walnut exporters have tried to increase prices with the start of the 2023 season, with only limited success so far. Prices in California, where the 2023 season is only two months under way, started off slightly higher than last season, but seem to be under pressure again.

“The same seems to be happening with prices from China, where the efforts for higher prices doesn’t seem to pay off. Observations closer at home, such as Ukraine, Moldova and Romania, show slightly better conditions for exporters who are able to supply product for the desperately wanted Christmas needs. How prices develop for deliveries after the Christmas needs remains to be seen,” Global Trading & Agency concluded.

Nov 22 - Stabilization in nutmeg prices due to promising crop in Indonesia (IHSmarkit)

Nov 18 - Vietnam’s cashew exports recovery in October 17 Nov 2023 - (IHSmarkit)

 

• 13.3% y/y increase in exports in January-October
• Main importers: the US and China
• Ivory Coast, Cambodia and Nigeria, the main suppliers of RCNs

 

Vietnam’s international cashew shipments increased by 13.3% year-on-year to 64,320 metric tons in October, bringing its global sales from January-October 2023 to 516,868 metric tons (+18.8% y/y) valued at $2,9 billion (+15.9% y/y) as the international demand is rising.

The main importers were the US, China and the Netherlands, accounting for 25%, 17% and 10%, respectively.

Vietnam’s raw cashew nut (RCN) imports this October fell by 23% y/y to 194,976 metric tons, bringing its January-October RCN imports to 2.52 million metric tons, 45% more y/y.

The main suppliers were Ivory Coast (31% of the total), Cambodia (24%), Nigeria (10%) and Ghana (9%). Ivory Coast has overtaken Cambodia as the main Vietnamese supplier, due to the disappointing crop in the latter.

Prices are stabilized, the Vietnamese trader Golden Bridge listing the following FOB quotations for shipments between November-December, in the week ending on 11 November:

• WW240 P5: $2.66/lb, two cents more m/m and 4% less y/y
• WW320 P10: $2.44/lb, one cent more m/m and 7% less y/y
• WW450 P4: $2.36/lb, five cents more m/m and 8% less y/y.

Nov 17 - Rain in Vietnam's coffee belt slows harvest peak (Reuters)

- Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam climbed this week as fresh supply from the new harvest is yet to pick up due to heavy rain in key growing areas over the past weeks that disrupted cherry picking, traders said on Thursday.

Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 58,500-59,400 dong ($2.41-$2.45) per kg, higher than last week's 57,200-58,600 dong.

 

• January robusta coffee gained $75 to $2,549 as of Wednesday’s close.

“Negative news on weather in Vietnam contributed to the rise,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.

 

• The trader offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at the same price as London price to the January contract. Another trader based in the same region quoted a discount range of $40-$50 per metric ton to the same contract.

“Beans are limited but farmers are releasing them bit by bit,” the second trader said. “Clearly it’s not a good harvest. Rains have disrupted all activities.”

• In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at $720 premium this week to the January-February contract, an increase of $20 from last week. One trader said that the higher prices were to adjust to the rise in London terminal, as well as an increase in the local price due to limited beans. ($1 = 24,288 dong)

Nov 16 - ISO boosts Russian sugar production forecast for this season to 6.6 mln tonnes

- The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has estimated sugar production in Russia in the 2023/2024 agricultural year at 6.6 million tonnes, according to its quarterly report.

The previous estimate, made in August, was 6.4 million tonnes.

Last season, 6.1 million tonnes of sugar was produced in Russia, according to ISO data.

The export estimate was raised to 800,000 tonnes from 500,000 tonnes, while the import estimate was lowered to 31,000 tonnes from 200,000 tonnes. The forecast of carryover stocks was reduced to 2.139 million tonnes from 2.558 million tonnes. Annual consumption is estimated at 5.831 million tonnes

- As reported, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) estimates sugar production in Russia this season at 6.5 million tonnes, but does not rule out raising the forecast.

The authors of the ISO review forecast world sugar production this season at 179.887 million tonnes compared with 178.328 million tonnes last season. Even despite the increase, they note that the current season will see a deficit. "A fundamental view of the global supply and demand situation suggests a small deficit. We expect a global deficit of 0.335 million tonnes compared to the August estimate of 2.118 million tonnes," the report said.

 

Nov 15 - Indian turmeric prices dragged down by selling pressure and slack domestic demand (IHSmarkit)

• Demand concerns likely to keep turmeric prices down
• Additional stocks also likely to compound downward pressure
• Cumin seed prices expected to be influenced by sowing progress

 

Turmeric

Indian turmeric prices extended losses with increased selling pressure in the market.

In its Commodity Daily Report (Agri) of 15 November SMC Global Securities added that muted demand in the domestic market weighed on market sentiments.

The firm explained that spot prices at the Nizamabad market dropped to 13,440 rupees ($161.20) per quintal down by 0.7% from the previous day. “Prices are likely to remain down on demand concerns as most of the market participants stayed away from bulk buying in the wake of improved yield prospects. Stocks are expected to be offloaded ahead of the new crop season that will keep prices down,” it added.

SMC Global Securities noted that the major focus is on crop progress which has been satisfactory despite the weather being drier than normal in October in major producing states. However, overall production is estimated to be down due to an estimated 10% reduction in the area under turmeric in 2023.

SMC Global Securities predicted that turmeric is likely to trade in a range of INR13,100-13,800/quintal.

Cumin seed

Cumin seed (jeera) extended its losses with increased supplies in the market.

“Stockists offloaded their positions ahead of the new crop season. Prices are expected to track cues from ongoing sowing progress of jeera which is expected to be improve in coming days,” SMC Global Securities stated.

Sowing activities have been slower as only 1,542 hectares was sown under cumin seed as on 6 November 23 in Gujarat compared with 3,866 ha of the previous year. Sluggish exports is still a major hurdle for substantial gains in prices.

India’s total cumin seed exports have slumped 26% year-on-year during April 2023-August 2023. Cumin seed prices are expected to hold resistance at INR47,000/quintal whereas support is seen at INR39,000/quintal.

Coriander seed

Coriander seed (dhaniya) prices pared its gains on Monday on account of profit booking. Hand to mouth buying in the physical market and expectations of a rise in area under coriander in the new crop season weighed on the market sentiments.

Sowing activities are slower so far this year due to drier weather condition in October but they are expected to improve in the coming days as weather conditions are likely to be conducive for sowing progress.

Only 2,175 ha was sown under coriander seed in Gujarat as on 6 November compared with 12,449 ha at the same time last year.

SMC Global Securities believes that coriander seed prices are likely to trade in a range of INR7,500-8,000/quintal.

Guar seed and guar gum

Guar seed futures are expected to trade on a weaker note due to demand concerns.

Muted demand of gum and increased availability of the alternative of guar meal has led to a fall in crushing activities of guar seed and that has been reflected in a fall in prices of guar seed. Demand of guar meal has been muted with increased supplies of other alternative feed meals in the market.

Guar gum exports dropped by 16% month-on-month in August 2023 to nearly 17,000 metric tons due to limited buying by the US.

SMC Global Securities suggested that guar seed prices are likely to find support near INR5,450/quintal whereas resistance is seen at INR5,900/quintal. Similarly, guar gum prices are likely to honor support of INR10,800/quintal whereas resistance is seen at INR11,700/quintal.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil prices are expected to trade sideways to higher on shrinking supplies in the market.

Arrivals have been tighter and are likely to remain down and this is likely to support firmness in prices, SMC Global Securities noted. However, muted exports of menthol and mentha oil will cap the gains.

The company forecasts that mentha oil prices are likely to find support near INR900 and resistance can be seen at INR950.

Nov 14 - Walnut Update: November 2023

 

• The US and Chinese crop estimates downgraded
• Chilean prices stagnant m/m
• 60% y/y increase in Chinese walnut exports

 

The global walnut crop estimate has been downgraded as frosts have hit average yield in China and the USDA has cut the planned acreage projection. The 2023-24 Chinese crop is forecast at 1.35 million metric tons against the previous estimate of 1.45 million metric tons. Meanwhile, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the USDA has cut the US estimate by 30,000 metric tons to 689,460 metric tons after the Californian Walnut Commission (CWB) reduced its planted area projection to 151,800 hectares due to a survey conducted by Land IQ. As a result, the world production is projected at 2.79 million metric tons, 1% less y/y and down from the previous estimate.

The US walnut industry is starting the season with record sales as China is doing. Meanwhile, Chile has only around 5,000 metric tons to sell for Christmas (December) festivities. That means a bullish price outlook after several months of digesting huge carry-over stocks.

 

California

Californian walnut shipments rose by 14.3% year-on-year to 85.0 million in-shell lbs (relying on shell out from the previous season: 40.1), bringing seasonal sales to (September-October) to 129.5 million lbs, 23.6% more y/y. Californian domestic sales accounted for 71% of shipments.

In-shell shipments totaled 48.2 million lbs, 10.4% more y/y. Exports accounted for 93%. The main importers were Turkey (13.5 million lbs, +47.3% y/y) and Italy (12.0 million lbs, +12.8% y/y).

Shelled sales totaled 50.9 million lbs, 23% up from October 2022. Exports accounted for 40.4% (20.6 million lbs, +28.5% y/y). The main seasonal kernel importers were South Korea (3.59 million lbs,+102%), Spain (3.54 million lbs, +22%) and Germany (3.0 million lbs, +51%).

Prices are stabilized, despite low carry-over stocks due to weak demand. Importers are keeping an eye on the new crops in the US and eastern Europe to avoid paying higher prices than average to secure supply during the Christmas festivities.

 

Chile

Chilean prices have stabilized after starting a slight recovery for in-shells and are growing strongly for kernels, due to a shortage of the latter.

Chilean exports fell by 17% y/y to 15,430 metric tons (in-shell basis) this October, bringing seasonal sales (March-October) to 146,422 metric tons (+4% y/y). The main seasonal in-shell importers were India with 44,062 metric tons (+105% y/y) and Turkey with 21,574 metric tons (stagnant y/y). Kernel exports reached 24,290 metric tons (-9.8% y/y). The main seasonal kernel purchaser was Spain with 4,504 metric tons (+23% y/y).

The Chilean industry has committed all the crop and will not have carry-over stocks this season. Growers and processors are waiting for February to start commercializing the new harvest in Gulfood (Dubai, 19-23 February 2024) with importers aiming to secure the supply during the Ramadan festival (10 March-9 April 2024).

Trading sources listed the following fob prices for Chilean walnuts in October:

• In-shell, Chandler 30-34 mm: $2.35-2.60/kg, stagnant month-on-month and 8-9% more y/y
• In-shell, Chandler 34-36 mm: $3.35-3.50/kg, stagnant m/m and 17-29% more y/y
• In-shell, Chandler over 36 mm: $4.10-4.30/kg, stagnant m/m and 23-32% y/y
• Kernel, ELLHP40: $6.00-6.25/kg, stagnant m/m and 18-20% more y/y
• Kernel, ELLHP80: $7.80-8.20/kg, stagnant m/m and 37% more y/y

 

China

China’s crop is expected to be flat at 1.34 million metric tons in the 2023-24 season. China is the largest world origin and is projected to conclude the season with carry-over stocks of 120,000 metric tons, two and a half times more than in the previous season. Export data reveals these huge inventories might be at the core of weak prices as the international market is literally flooded with walnuts which are not fulfilling the EU requests.

China exported 131,013 metric tons of walnuts in January-September 2023, 60% more y/y, and is set to exceed the record level reached in 2021: 154,000 metric tons.

Chinese light Amber prices averaged £2,623/metric ton ($3,824/metric ton) exw UK in October 2023, 5% less m/m and 45% less y/y, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

 

Ukraine

Slowed Ukrainian walnut exports, due to logistics bottlenecks as a consequence of the Russia-Ukraine war, were an important bearish factor in the previous season.

Export data unveils that exports are recovering although with orders to markets reluctant to pay high prices for high-quality product. Ukraine’s international sales rose by 4% y/y to 14,160 metric tons in January-August 2023. The main importers were Turkey (3,376 metric tons, two times more y/y), Azerbaijan (1,412 metric tons, 48% more y/y) and France (1,320 metric tons, 34% less y/y).

 

Nov 14 - Brazil's sugar production outlook raised as weather helps harvesting

Brazil's center-south region should produce 40.5 million metric tons of sugar in the 2023/24 season (April-March), a record and 500,000 tons more than previously expected, Green Pool Commodity Specialists projected on Monday. Green Pool said in a weekly report that hot and dry weather in the region is allowing mills to continue sugarcane harvesting at a good pace, with a large allocation of the cane towards sugar production.

Nov 10 - Asia Market awaits new beans in Vietnam; Indonesia premiums rise (Reuters)

- Bids and offers remained far apart in Vietnam, with buyers waiting for prices to stabilise ahead of the arrival of fresh beans as the harvest peaks later this month, traders said on Thursday, adding Indonesia premiums rose further on beans scarcity. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 57,200-58,600 dong ($2.35-$2.40) per kg, compared with 57,700-59,000 dong range a week ago.

Sellers in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at $120 premium per metric ton to the January contract. Buyers, however, only agree to buy at $40-$50 premiums. To the November contract, sellers quoted $200 premium per metric ton while buyers offered the premium in the $120-$150 range.
“Supplies are limited, so those who have to fulfil their November contracts have to buy at high prices. Meanwhile, January prices are down this week as beans started to tick up,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.
“Hopefully, the prices will start to cool next week when more beans come.”

Another trader said it was still sunny at the moment but if it gets warmer, it would be much better for the beans.
Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first 10 months of 2023 were 1.3 million metric tons, a 10.7% decline from the same period last year, government customs data showed on Thursday.

In Indonesia, Sumatran beans were offered at $600 premium to the January contract this week, a $40 increase compared to the previous one due to “shortage of beans”, a trader said.
Another trader quoted $620-$700 premium to the November-December contract, up from last week’s $580-$600 range.

Nov 02 - ICE certified arabica coffee stocks fall to lowest in 24 years
The amount of arabica coffee stored at certified warehouses of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell on Wednesday to 380,033 60-kg bags, the lowest level in 24 years, according to data from the exchange and information compiled by Reuters. ICE said in a daily report on Wednesday that the certified stocks had decreased by 9,105 bags, and that there was no coffee recently delivered pending the grading process for approval to enter the certified stocks.

Nov 02 - Tanzania starts the global cashew season with official auctions (IHSmarkit)

-  Tanzanian harvest takes place from October-November
-   Flat Indian demand for cashews despite the Diwali festival (November)
-   US and EU importers are destocking inventories built up during the Covid-19 pandemic

Tanzania (east Africa) has triggered the 2023-24 global cashew season, opening its auctions in October with purchases of 20,000 metric tons with bullish prices driven by Indian processors, according to Olam Nuts in its latest market update. However, the Indian domestic demand for cashews is still flat despite the Diwali festival, confirming the rising market share for other nuts such as almonds, pistachios or walnuts.

Flowering will start in Asia from February onwards and Vietnam will need to raise orders to replenish stocks in January, just before the Lunar festival (February). Tanzania is the main eastern African origin and its harvest (October-November) starts the commercial season. Global prices for in-shell cashews are flat and quotes for high-quality kernels are growing due to low availability of the latter.

Consumption is growing at a strong pace, particularly in the US and the EU where importers were destocking after building up high inventories to secure supply during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Oct 26 - Ivory Coast in fresh stand-off with cocoa buyers over premium
Ivory Coast is struggling to sell cocoa export contracts for the 2024/25 season with multinational companies demanding it lower prices, which are elevated due to a supply squeeze, the head of the country's cocoa regulator said on Wednesday. Ivory Coast is the world's top producer of cocoa, the main ingredient in chocolate. Along with neighbouring Ghana, it produces about two-thirds of the world's supply.

Oct 26 - Kenya Plans to Offer 432.5 Tons of Arabica Coffee at Auction (DJ)

- Kenya plans to offer 432.5 metric tons of mild Arabica green coffee beans at an auction on Oct. 31, the Nairobi Coffee Exchange said Thursday.

  At the prior auction on Oct. 24, coffee beans were sold at an average price of $207.67 for a 50-kilogram bag, up 5.1% from $197.53 a bag at an earlier auction on Oct.11, the NCE said in a provisional market summary report.

  A total of 698.03 metric tons of beans were sold for $2.90 million, compared with 404.62 tons sold for $1.60 million at the prior auction.

  Almost all Kenyan arabica coffee is sold at auctions run by the NCE. Most is destined for export, although direct sales are allowed. Kenya's arabica auctions use the New York ICE futures index as their benchmark.

  Production is estimated to increase 6.7% to 800,000 60-kilogram bags in the current marketing year from 750,000 bags in the prior year, due to improved weather conditions and more fertilizer application, the U.S. agriculture department said in its annual Kenya coffee report.

Oct 23 - Tanzania Plans to Offer 671 Tons of Coffee Beans at Auction (DJ)

- Tanzania plans to offer 671 metric tons of coffee beans at an auction on Thursday, the country's coffee board said Monday.
  At a prior auction held on Oct. 19, a total 235.8 tons were sold.

  The highest price at the auction on Oct. 19 was $150.80 for a 50-kilogram bag, up from $134 a bag at the prior auction on Oct. 12, according to the board's market report. The lowest price was $20 a bag, down from $22 a bag.

  Tanzanian arabica auctions use the New York ICE Futures price index as the benchmark. Robusta prices follow the London-traded contract on ICE. Direct sales are also allowed.   Almost all Tanzanian coffee is sold for export.

  Tanzania's green coffee bean production is expected to rise 3.7% on year to 85,000 tons in the current marketing year beginning July, according to the country's agriculture minister Hussein Bashe.

Oct 13 - Indian turmeric prices being dragged down by demand uncertainty (IHSmarkit)

- Turmeric losses are looking limited though
- Cumin seed also prone to bearish influences
- Mentha oil exports lagging behind year-ago levels

- Indian turmeric prices are expected to remain subjected to downward pressure due to demand concerns.

In its Commodity Daily Report (Agri) of 12 October Indian company SMC Global Securities observed that improved production prospects due to favorable weather conditions weighed on market sentiments. The crop condition is satisfactory and Indian turmeric will be ready for harvest during January to March.
“However, losses in turmeric are looking limited due to tighter ending stocks and decreasing supplies are expected to sustain price stability,” SMC Global Securities added. The firm explained that overall arrivals have been down in October 2023 from those of the same month last year. Turmeric ending stocks are expected to drop by 20% year-on-year to 291,000 metric tons in 2023-24 due to lower production. In addition, there is support for improved export opportunities, as turmeric exports have increased by 25% due to rising demand in both developed and emerging nations.
Turmeric prices are expected to honor the support near 13,700 rupees ($xxxx) per quintal whereas resistance is seen at INR15,000/quintal.

- Cumin seed
SMC Global Securities expects cumin seed (jeera) futures to remain under pressure due to sluggish export demand.
Indian cumin seed exports fell this September as prices became uncompetitive in the global market after sharp gains. Global demand of Indian cumin seed slumped as most buyers preferred other lower priced destinations such as Syria and Turkey. India exported about 7,100 metric tons of cumin seed in July 2023 compared with 19,000 metric tons in the same month last year.
The country’s total cumin seed exports during April 2023-July 2023 was reported at 57,500 metric tons against the 63,300 metric tons of the previous year.
SMC Global Securities noted that Indian cumin seed exports are likely to remain down in the forthcoming months in line with the export seasonality. “However, limited availability of quality crop in the market will cap the losses,” it added.
The company predicted that Indian cumin seed prices are likely to trade in a range of INR51,700-55,300/quintal.

- Coriander seed
SMC Global Securities predicted that Indian coriander seed (dhaniya) prices are likely to trade on a weaker note due to sluggish buying at prevailing levels.
“Adequate stocks at major trading centers weighed on market sentiments. Prices will track the upcoming sowing activities which is likely to start later in October. However, robust export demand will cap the losses,” it added.
Indian coriander seed exports rose significantly in 2023 due to supply concerns for other producing countries. SMC Global Securities expects Indian coriander seed prices to trade in a range of INR6,700-7,150/quintal.

- Guar seed and guar gum
SMC Global Securities predicted that guar seed November futures are likely to trade higher on increased buying in the domestic market. Lower production and an expected rise in seasonal demand of gum in October-December is likely to help prices to trade on a positive bias ahead. However, the commencement of the new crop season will lead to a rise in fresh supplies which will cap the gains, it suggested.
Guar seed prices are likely to honor the support of INR5,450/quintal and expected to move up towards the resistance of INR5,780/quintal. Gum prices are likely to trade in a range of INR11,000-11,900/quintal, according to SMC Global Securities.

- Mentha oil
Mentha oil prices are likely to trade sideways as prices may move up further on concerns over lower supplies in the market. However, sluggish export demand of menthol will cap the gains.
India exported about 1,500 metric tons of menthol in July 2023 compared with 1,900 metric tons in the same month last year. The country’s overall export of menthol was reported at 4,200 metric tons during the period of April-July 2023 against the 5,200 metric tons of the previous year.
SMC Global Securities forecast that mentha oil October prices are likely to find support near INR900 and resistance can be seen at INR945.

Oct 12 - Turkish hazelnut market buckles as buyers hesitate (IHSmarkit)

- Trade sources disappointed that largest buyer remained absent
- Sellers keen to stimulate some demand
- New crop quality appears to be satisfactory so far

Turkish hazelnut prices have declined this week as buyers continue to hold off and postpone their buying at these higher levels.

Olivier Telvi of UK trader Ronly Limited, which represents Turkish hazelnut processor Ronly Gida, noted: “There were rumors last week that Ferrero was preparing to make a second round of purchases to increase coverage, but this announcement never arrived. As a result, some sellers with additional cash flow requirements have come to the market with reduced prices in order to stimulate demand.”

Telvi explained that crop estimates remain in the range of 600,000-650,000 metric tons which is much lower than the 800,000 + metric tons expected this May. “However, now a month into the start of the harvest, we can say that despite the quantity being lower, quality seems satisfactory despite earlier concerns in September,” he added.

Prices supplied this week to S&P Global Commodity Insights confirmed the downtrend. On Thursday (12 October) Turkish 11-13 hazelnuts were indicated at $7,700 per metric ton CPT Europe, down from $7,800/t CPT Europe a week ago.

Oct 12 - Guatemalan cardamom harvest delayed due to political instability (IHSmarkit)

- 10-20% y/y fall in the Guatemalan cardamom crop expected
- Pimento production stabilized at around 2,000 metric tons
- Combination of collapsed road transport services and low farmgate prices

The Guatemalan cardamom harvest is delayed by two-three weeks due to social riots due to political instability after general elections, being held in June, the Federation of Growers in Alto Verapaz (Fedecovera, north Guatemala) told S&P Global Commodity Insights during the Anuga fair, being held in Cologne from 7-11 October.

Alto Verapaz is the largest cardamom origin.
Most cardamom farmers own small orchards, ranging around one-two hectares in isolated areas, and road freight services are collapsed temporarily due to road blockades.
In addition, low prices are discouraging growers, waiting for a bullish trend for farmgate prices once they have heard about rising prices in destinations, due to a disappointing Indian supply.

Rains have not been as abundant as in the previous season, forecasting a crop 10-20% lower year-on-year, as plants have a lower average yield.

Alto Verapaz is also an important pimento origin. Guatemala’s pimento harvest has finished and the crop is estimated at around 2,000 metric tons, being consistent with updates developed by S&P Global Commodity Insights through trading sources.
“We are aiming to plant new pimento trees although they will not come into fruition over the next three-four years, needing that most of them are female gender,” Fedecovera concluded.

Oct 12 - Brazilian cocoa grind increases amid production growth (IHSmarkit)

- Cocoa arrivals up 6% y/y in Q3 2023
- Investment in processing capacity increases
- Sharp fall in exports to Argentina

In Brazil, cocoa arrivals or the amount of cocoa beans delivered to industries in the country amounted to 69,646 metric tons in the third quarter of 2023, up 5% from the previous quarter, according to the industry group AIPC. Total arrivals between January and September 2023 rose 6% year-on-year to 162,766 metric tons.
“The increase was already expected as there was a delay in the harvest, due to unfavorable weather and losses caused by pests. Despite the positive figures, the final volume is expected to be lower than expected. Many producers have reported significant losses due to crop diseases", said Anna Paula Losi, the president of AIPC.

- Grindings
Cocoa bean grinding in the world’s fifth largest chocolate market totaled 64,024 metric tons in the third quarter of 2023, an increase of 3% compared with the previous quarter when the country processed 62,426 metric tons of beans. Cumulative cocoa processing amounted to 190,466 metric tons of beans, up 15% from 165,356 in the same period last year.

Losi said that the increase in production has impacted positively the grinding levels. In addition, the prospects for growth in domestic production have encouraged increased investment in processing capacity.

- Exports
Brazilian cocoa exports fell by 13% from the previous quarter to 10,764 metric tons in Q3 2023. The main buyers were Argentina, the US and Chile. This decline was mainly due to lower imports by Argentina, which retreated by 22%. The neighboring country, which is the larger market for Brazilian cocoa derivatives, has been going through an economic crisis in the last few years, which has had a negative impact on exports to this country.

There were no imports reported in Brazil in the third quarter.

Oct 11 - Moroccan herbs and spices impacted by adverse weather (IHSmarkit)

- Climate change cited as a key factor
- Coriander seed badly hit by rains
- Rosemary and thyme will also be scarce

Climate change is affecting the availability and quality of Moroccan wild herbs and spices this year, Indian broker SpicExim observed in a recent market report.
SpicExim observed: “Morocco is facing an unusual and critical situation this year, to say the least. Because of the rains at the end of the season a large part of the crop for all products has been destroyed and availability and quality of the raw material have been also affected. For that, prices of raw material are on an upward trend and a scarcity is expected.” The firm explained that due to the climatic conditions and drought of the last two years, the number of collection permits awarded this year was lower than in previous years.

Rosemary
Harvesting of rosemary in Morocco is almost completed. SpicExim reported there has been strong demand particularly from the culinary segment. A low number of permits were granted due to the drought in recent years. Fires in August have destroyed some of the areas covered by collection permits and a volume of about 800 metric tons has been lost.

The available volumes are well below the forecast quantities and scarcity is now known by all collectors.
“The market is highly demanding, prices are currently increased approximatively 10-11% more than July prices and are continuing on this trend,” SpicExim warned. Hence, the company expects further price increases for Moroccan rosemary over the coming weeks.

Moreover, there is very little material left to be offered and defaults are expected in future contracts due to the scarcity of raw material. SpicExim announced it is now able to offer rosemary leaf oil which has been sourced from controlled farms in Morocco and is meticulously distilled to extract its purest form.

Thyme
The current market situation on Moroccan thyme is shifting, as dry weather and heatwaves have destroyed some of the leaves and shortened the drying process. “We believe that crop damage is about 15-20%,” SpicExim stated. The government has delivered a limited number of permits. There is strong demand from all segments, particularly for organic quality.

Volumes are lower than expected initially by the early harvest. The availability of thyme might be affected by September’s earthquake.
Demand for Moroccan thyme is gradually returning thanks to lowering prices and for the known premium quality. Prices are expected to remain firm.

Coriander seed
Moroccan coriander seed is the product most affected by the rains that emerged at the beginning of the harvest. Despite the large cultivated volumes, trade sources in Morocco expect to harvest only 20% of a normal year’s crop. They report that there has been a shift from the attractive golden color before the rains, to 60% of the crop now being of medium dark and 20% dark (unusable).

There is strong demand, particularly for the usual quality (golden color) due to pesticide and allergen complying characteristics. For that, prices are sharp at this stage due the scarcity of such merchandise and prices are increasing. Suppliers in Morocco are working on the possibility of different mixes between medium dark and golden color coriander seeds, adaptable to each customer’s needs.

Buyers of Moroccan coriander seed are advised to book needed volumes as prices are set for a “remarkable increase” and product availability is very limited.

Oct 10 - Guatemalan cardamom prices prone to bullish forces (IHSmarkit)

- Smaller forthcoming crop and ongoing demand
- Reduced crop in India adding to bullish tone
- Definite potential for further upward pricing pressure

Guatemalan cardamom prices are increasing regularly due to steady demand and forecasts for a delayed and sharply reduced 2023-24 crop. Like India, the cardamom growing regions in Guatemala are suffering from prolonged dry weather which has prompted trade estimates for a much smaller crop this forthcoming season. Meanwhile, stocks of any 2022-23 crop material are dwindling and commanding high prices as buyers cover their requirements in the interim until the arrival of the new crop.

- This September, the monthly average for Guatemalan mixed yellow quality (MYQ) of 360 grams per liter increased to $8,976 per metric ton CIF any destination from the August 2023 average of $7,645/t CIF.

- S&P Global Commodity Insights price data shows the Guatemalan bold green cardamom (approximately 8 mm size) grew to $20,000/t CIF Middle East in September from $16,957/t in August. Meanwhile, Guatemalan seeds reached $14,476/t CIF any destination in September, up from $10,652/t in August.

- Daily prices at the time of writing (9 October) showed the bold green material holding levels of $20,000/t cif Middle East but the MYQ had edged up to $11,500/t CIF any destination and the seeds had gained to $15,000/t CIF any destination.

Albert Berisa of Rotterdam trader Catz International suggested that MYQs and seeds could potentially increase by a further 50-100% in price having already escalated massively in the last three months. He predicted that the bold greens could increase by an additional 30-40% having reached a range of $22-23 per kg CIF versus $13/kg three months ago.

Marco Van der Does of Van der Does Spice Brokers confirmed he had received the same information on reduced crops in Guatemala and India. Van der Does added he had not received any definite price offers from Guatemala lately but quotes on Indian cardamom has been “relatively sky high”.

Berisa recalled that Guatemala’s cardamom crop was quite large in the last two seasons.

In the 2022-23 season Guatemala’s cardamom crop was estimated at 50,000-55,000 metric tons. This compared with around 42,000-45,000 metric tons in 2021-22. However, for the imminent (albeit delayed) 2023-24 season the El Nino weather phenomenon has caused drought conditions and the crop is pegged to revert to a range of 30,000-32,000 metric tons putting it close to the estimated 2020-21 output of 30,000 metric tons.

India has also been adversely impacted by El Nino-induced lack of rains meaning its next cardamom crop is also set to be disappointing.

Berisa suggested that India’s production will fall back to about 21,000 metric tons or less from the recent range of around 30,000 metric tons.

He added: “Prices have been under pressure for almost two years now. They reached rock bottom levels pre-2016 because at that time also the prices reached a very low level. Shortly after that the prices started to rise once the production became short in Guatemala. Now we see more or less the same scenario with the only difference that the exportable quantity of this past season was much higher in comparison to 2015-2016. Also, the consumption has increased quite a lot during the past 10 years.”

Oct 10 - Ivory Coast weather boosts farmers' hopes for cocoa main crop
A mixture of rain and strong sunny spells over most of Ivory Coast’s main cocoa growing regions last week should help small pods develop and extend the October-to-March main crop, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is in its rainy season which usually runs from April to mid-November.

Oct 09 - Monthly Prices Report: Seeds and Pulses (IHSmarkit )

Beans
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) revised down its dry bean production estimate for 2023/24 by 8% to 277,000 metric tons, down 12% y/y. In its September crop production report, the USDA estimated the country’s dry edible bean production in 2023 at 1.029 million metric tons, down 12% from 2022.

As a result of reduced production, producer price of great northern beans EXW Denver rose 3% m/m to $41.33 per hundredweight in September, while producer price of pinto beans EXW Minnesota/Dakota increased 2% m/m to $35/cwt. In September, navy bean producer price EXW Minnesota/Dakota fell 3% m/m to $34/cwt, while producer prices of bagged dark red kidney beans slipped marginally to $42/cwt, down 1% m/m.

Wholesale prices for mung beans (Moong Dal) in India dropped 1% m/m to 102,005 Indian rupees per metric ton ($1,226) in September.

Chickpeas
In September, AAFC revised Canada’s chickpea production for 2023/24 down by 21% to 134,000 metric tons, up 5% y/y as increased planting area is offset by below average yields. Total chickpea supply for 2023/24 is expected to fall 37% y/y on lower carry-in stocks, and exports is projected to almost halve from 229,000 metric tons in 2022/23 to 120,000 metric tons in 2023/24. In September, Canadian 9mm Kabuli chickpea price FCA Saskatchewan rose 13% m/m to C$53.16/cwt ($38.8), while prices for the same variety on a CPT Saskatchewan basis increased by 12% m/m to $767/t. Canadian Desi chickpea price FCA Saskatchewan grew 8% m/m to C$36.39/cwt ($26.57) in September.

The Indian chickpeas index FOR Indian ports rose 9% m/m to $758/t in September. Bagged US food grade chickpeas EXW Pacific Northwest increased to $40/cwt in September, up 2% m/m.

Lentils
Canadian lentil prices saw an overall increase in September as the AAFC revised its lentil production for 2023/24 down by 14% to 1.54 million metric tons, down 33% y/y due to lower yields affecting mostly red lentils. In September, prices for Canadian red, small green, medium green, and large green lentils FCA Saskatchewan rose 11%, 11%, 9%, and 6% m/m to C$38.22 ($27.89), C$58.3 ($42.55), C$58.18 ($42.46), and C$61.24/cwt ($44.69), respectively. Canadian French green lentils FCA Saskatchewan, however, fell 7% m/m to C$58.2/cwt ($42.48) in September.

Price Focus
While Canada is expecting a 37% decline in its chickpea production, the USDA forecasts US chickpea production to surge 36% m/m to 225,000 metric tons in 2023/24. A larger global chickpea supply is expected to offset Canada’s reduced chickpea production and keep prices stable.

While the price increase in September is in line with the reduced production forecast by AAFC, traders are seeing better than initially expected crop performance and softening demand. The ongoing political dispute between Canada and India could have a significant impact on the future trade of lentils, causing uncertainty about the market’s direction.

Oct 06 - ASIA COFFEE-Vietnam trade unmatched, higher premiums in Indonesia (Reuters)

- Vietnam’s coffee market stayed quiet with bids and asks far apart as buyers were unwilling to match premiums offered by sellers, while premiums rose in Indonesia on limited supplies, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans COFVN-DAK for 64,800-66,700 dong ($2.66-$2.74) per kg, compared with last week's 65,900-66,700 dong range.

Sellers in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a $200 premium per ton to the January contract.
“No buyers have ever accepted that price. It’s too high,” said a trader based in the coffee belt. “The high premium was due to the high price of past contracts.”

January robusta coffee settled down $17, at $2,315 per metric ton, as of Wednesday’s close.

Another trader based in the region said planting area was down this crop season but productivity was higher due to favourable weather.
“Output may remain the same for this crop season but stormy season is coming and hopefully the weather remains this positive in November when farmers pick the beans,” the second trader said.

Coffee exports from Vietnam are estimated to have decreased 7.3% in the first nine months of 2023 from a year earlier to 1.27 metric tons, equivalent to 21.6 million 60 kg (130 pound) bags, official data showed.

- Indonesia’s August Sumatra robusta coffee bean exports were at 16,166.17 metric tons, a decline of 55.48% on a yearly basis, trade office data showed.
Sumatra bean prices to the November contract continued to rise this week, at a $480 premium due to thin supply.
“Coffee prices were up around $30 compared to last week as there were no more beans left,” one trader said.

Another trader quoted $500 premium to the October contract, unchanged from last week. ($1 = 24,385 dong)

Oct 05 - European Commission raises sugar production forecast (IHSmarkit)

- EU sugar output expected to rise more than 7% y/y in 2023-24
- Sugar import forecast reduced
- Exports projected to increase by 160,000 y/y

The European Commission has raised its estimate of sugar output in the European Union in 2023-24 to 15.638 million metric tons from its initial forecast of 15.522 million in early July. If realised, this would be up 7.1% from 14.608 million a year ago, but ending stocks will remain tight due to lower imports and a rise in exports, the European Commission said. The Commission’s forecast for sugar production in the 27-member bloc was linked to a sharp rise in the area sown with sugar beet in Poland that more than compensated for a fall in France with the area in Germany seen practically unchanged on the year.

The Commission projects EU sugar imports in 2023-24 (October-September) to fall to 2.67 million tons (0.02 million more than in July), down from 3.30 (July: 3.15) million in 2022-23. Sugar imports as such are still seen falling to 1.9 million tons from 2.54 (July: 2.4) million, while imports in processed products are seen rising marginally to 770,000 tons from 760,000 (bot at 750,000 tons in July).

EU sugar exports are expected to rebound somewhat in 2023-24 to 3.370 (a mere 8,000 tons less than in July) million tons, up from 3.210 (July: 3.170) million in 2022-23. Sugar exports as such are seen rising to 750,000 (July: 728,000) tons from 580,000 (520,000), while exports in processed products are seen falling 10,000 tons to 2.62 million tons (both at 2.65 million tons in July).

Consumption in the EU-27 is now projected to be unchanged at 14.85 million tons in 2023-24. In July, the Commission saw consumption falling marginally to 14.75 million tons in 2023-24 from 14.80 million a year earlier. Use for ethanol is still seen flat on the year at 550,000 tons, while sugar use for industrial purposes is now seen rising to 750,000 tons in the new season from 700,000. Other use (mainly food) is seen down at 13.55 million tons in the new season from 13.60 million, the same as in July.

All in all, the bloc is expected to end the 2023-24 season with stocks nearly as tight as this one, at 1.417 million tons compared to 1.367 million, the Commission said.

Oct 03 - Low crop estimates are raising prices for Turkish hazelnuts (IHSmarkit)

- Crop is estimated at around 600,000 metric tons against the initial estimated of 718,000-730,000 metric tons
- Gradual fall in the average yield
- 60% y/y increase in TMO’s official prices

The USDA has projected a Turkish hazelnut production of around 600,000 (in-shell) metric tons, due to latest reports from farmers, against the office estimates of around 718,000-730,000 metric tons released by the Turkish Statistics Agency (TurkStat) and the Turkish Union of Chambers of Agriculture, raising prices.

There are around 725,000 hectares of hazelnut trees in origins around the Black Sea, although its average yield is gradually falling as farmers are minimizing purchases of inputs and most trees are older than 50 years old.

The Turkish government announced an official price of TRY84/kg ($3.05/kg) for Giresun quality and TRY82.5/kg for Levant for the Turkish Grain Board’s (TMO) purchases, 60% more year-on-year. The TMO pays growers 21-days after receiving hazelnuts in its warehouses. Meanwhile, processors are paying TRY90/kg as most players expect a disappointing supply. for Giresun quality.

The Union of Hazelnut Agriculture Sales Cooperatives (Fiskobirlik) is purchasing small volumes, paying TRY98/kg for the lowest quality of the Giresun variety.

In addition, Ferrero, the largest purchaser, is paying TRY80/kg. Ferrero accounts for around a third of the total sales, driving prices. On the other hand, the TMO and Fiskobirlik aim to stabilize prices in the local market to secure local consumption and high revenues for farmers.

Oct 03 - Farmers plant more cocoa outside Africa as prices rally
Production of the chocolate-making ingredient is expanding outside of the main growing area in West Africa as farmers in places such Brazil, Ecuador and Colombia see potential profit in the crop. The rally in prices to the highest level in nearly 50 years is boosting that trend, which could alleviate the current supply tightness in the global cocoa market.  

Oct 03 - Honduran coffee exports seen falling on bad weather, costly inputs
Honduran coffee exports for the new season will likely total some 4.98 million 60-kg (132-lb) bags, down 6.6% from the previous crop, national coffee institute IHCAFE said on Monday, citing adverse weather and limits on fertilizer supplies due to higher costs. Honduran coffee exporters shipped 5.34 million bags in the just-concluded 2022/2023 harvest, according to preliminary IHCAFE data, below the 5.5 million bags previously estimated.

Sep 30 - Madagascar cloves prices move sharply upwards (IHSmarkit)

- Rush of buying on new crop material
- Importers keen to cover from Madagascar due to low output elsewhere
- Madagascar’s 2023 crop estimated in the range of 18,000-20,000 metric tons

Madagascar cloves prices have escalated in recent weeks due to strong demand following the start of the 2023 crop in the south of the island around 10 days ago. The upward surge in pricing is despite the fact that Madagascar is expected to have a good crop. The main problem is that other global origins are struggling with their crops and this has put excessive early buying pressure towards Madagascar as the main viable option.

Gregoire Courme of French trader Aromatum told S&P Global Commodity Insights that local prices for cloves in Madagascar increased by 20-25% since the start of the crop. The crop in this region is expected to be in the range of 4,000-6,000 metric tons.

In the north of Madagascar the official start of the crop is on 15 October. The crop from this region is forecast to reach 12,000-14,000 metric tons, but Courme explained that he believes it might end up higher than this. Either way, Madagascar as a whole should achieve a 2023 cloves crop of around 18,000-20,000 metric tons, he suggested.

Local cloves prices of 20,000 Malagasy ariary ($4.37) per kilo were reported from the north of Madagascar for early September and now these are said to be at MGA26,000-28,000/kg.

Strong local demand
“We are just at the beginning of the crop so perhaps the price will decrease or perhaps it will increase. The problem at the present time is that demand on the local market is high so the price rises and the market is bullish because India is there. Some Indian shippers are in the bush and they pay the farmer directly,” Courme said.
- Emmanuel Nee, head of the ingredients department at French trader Touton, reported that there are high numbers of Indian buyers now present in Madagascar to purchase direct from cloves farmers. Moreover, these Indian buyers are tough negotiators.

India has very limited carry-over of cloves so needs to cover now. According to estimates from Touton, India’s annual cloves consumption amounts to 15,000-16,000 metric tons. Unlike Indonesia, its usage is in food.
“They will buy whatever happens and they will push the price up,” Nee suggested.

Courme expects US buyers to wait for Brazil’s new crop. Brazil’s 2023 cloves crop is expected to be only average, meaning in the range of 3,000-5,000 metric tons.

Global shortage
Touton has calculated that the world cloves industry will be short by 28,000-30,000 metric tons this year. Nee noted that this is significant in a market normally thought to amount to a total supply of 120,000-150,000 metric tons.
“Indonesia is for the third time short in production. They estimate the crop to be around 45,000-50,000 metric tons whereas a normal crop in Indonesia is roughly around 100,000 metric tons,” Nee explained.

Comoros is pegged to produce about 2,000 metric tons this year versus an estimated 7,000 metric tons in 2022; Zanzibar perhaps 3,000-4,000 metric tons in 2023; Tanzania 1,000-1,500 metric tons.
“Sri Lanka is a nightmare. It is now very difficult to have a reliable supply from Sri Lanka and Brazil will be very short too. In the middle of this Madagascar is offering quite a good crop, in the area of 20,000 metric tons,” Nee added.

The net result of this is a rush of demand on Madagascar. “Everyone is there. The Chinese, the Indians, traders, industries from Indonesia. Everybody is requiring cloves from Madagascar although the crop is just starting right now so the volumes are not there. So it is a war,” Nee added. The appearance of buyers from South America seems to confirm expectations for a shortfall from Brazil.

Touton’s manager is currently in Madagascar and he told Nee that he had never seen so many global buyers out “in the bush” (i.e. visiting growing areas). The timing is bad as ideally these buyers should have waited for the higher volumes to become available. “It’s a mess,” Nee observed.
Opening new crop prices in Madagascar

Courme observed that cloves prices from the south of Madagascar started from the end of August at MGA12,000-14,000/kg. “We are now at MGA20,000 per kg,” he added. Currently it is difficult to obtain offers because most of the new crop cloves are not yet ready to be shipped. However, Courme suggested that export offers on new crop cloves from the south of Madagascar are likely to be from $8,000 per metric ton FOB upwards. He anticipates price offers from the north of Madagascar to open in mid-October from $8,500/t FOB but some industry sources have predicted prices of more than $9,000/t FOB from this region.

Based on the current scenario, Madagascar cloves prices could reach $9,500/t FOB in January 2024.

Nee indicated current prices of $9,000/t CIF EMP and $8,750/t CIF Singapore.

Prominence of Indonesia as an importer
Courme recalled that in 2022 Indonesia was the main market for Madagascar cloves. This is confirmed by GTA customs data which shows that last year Indonesia imported 25,105 metric tons of cloves of which 19,517 metric tons or 77.7% was from Madagascar. Tanzania accounted for much of the balance with 4,774 metric tons or 19% of Indonesia’s 2022 cloves imports total.

In H1 2023 Indonesia already imported 20,750 metric tons of cloves of which 17,061 metric tons or 82% was from Madagascar.

It is difficult to know the current export quoted price from Indonesia but it is thought to be at least $9,500/t FOB. The 2023 crop is a small one but after three consecutive disappointing crops a bumper one is expected next year.

Courme suggested that if Indonesia’s kretek cigarette manufacturers are also expecting the country to have a hefty cloves crop next year then they will not be major buyers so Madagascar will have enough material to supply the global market. Conversely, if it transpires that Indonesia has another small cloves crop then it will be an active buyer and this will push prices higher.

Nee cited Touton’s estimates that Indonesian kretek manufacturers typically consume as much as 100,000 metric tons per year. Based on this, Indonesia will not feature as a cloves exporter in 2024, he predicted.

Aromatum expects improved availability of Madagascar cloves by mid-November, leading to a possible slight easing in prices. “Until the middle of November the price will be firm because we will not get enough goods from Madagascar to supply the demand,” Courme predicted. Indian buying will also be a key determinant of what direction prices take over the mid-November to end of December period, according to Courme. “After January, if Indonesia has a bumper crop most of the people will expect the cheapest price from Indonesia and India will go back to Indonesia for cloves and the price of Madagascar could drop a little bit,” he added.

Nee said he envisages prices holding high for the remainder of 2023 and most likely into early 2024. Moreover, he noted that the outcome of Indonesia’s 2024 crop will not be known for another 10 months so at this stage it cannot be assumed that it will in fact end up as a bumper one.
“I do not believe they (the Indonesian buyers) will keep away from the market looking at the Indians buying without doing anything because they cannot be sure that the next [Indonesian] crop will be good and industries in Indonesia can’t work without having stocks especially knowing that when they buy cloves they will not use them this year but the year after, because they need the cloves to go into a fermentation process in the warehouse,” Nee added.

Election concerns
Courme raised concerns that 9 November presidential elections in Madagascar could lead to turmoil if the results go against the hopes of the population. He viewed this as possibly prompting some of the early purchasing seen lately as importers want to ensure they have coverage ahead of any potential disruption to logistics etc.

However, Nee noted that any political protests are invariably limited to Antananarivo, the capital city, and do not have any impact on the port city of Tamatave (also known as Toamasina). “I have seen situations in Madagascar that were much more difficult some years back and they kept on exporting. The only issue we can face is if customs or the port is closed but it never lasts for long,” Nee explained.

Sep 29 - ASIA COFFEE-Local prices ease amid tepid trade in Vietnam (Reuters)

- Vietnam’s coffee market remained lacklustre, with local prices falling this week ahead of the new harvest, while prices in Indonesia were lower following global cues and a stronger dollar, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 65,900-66,700 dong ($2.70-$2.73) per kg, down from 67,300-68,100 dong last week.
“Prices witnessed a fall due to weaken dong and stronger dollar,” said a trader based in the coffee belt. “Domestic prices dipped also in line with global prices.”

Traders said coffee trees were in good condition and beans would arrive in November.
“Some local farmers are quoting 55,000-56,000 dong per kg for new beans,” another trader based in the same region said.

January robusta coffee shed $118 in a week, settling at $2,346 per metric ton, as of Wednesday’s close.

Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at discounts of $40-$50 per ton to the January contract.

In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at $450 premium to the November contract this week, $30 lower from last week.
“Coffee price is down due to the rising dollar,” a trader said.
Another trader said prices were also down $20 from last week, now at a $500 premium this week to the October contract. ($1 = 24,400 dong)

Sep 28 - Disappointing Czech poppyseed crop expected to raise prices (IHSmarkit)

- Crop estimated downgraded by 21-32%
- Bullish price trend in the long-term
- 7% m/m increase in Turkish white poppyseed prices

Poppyseed prices are expected to increase due to a disappointing crop in Czechia. Czechia’s 2023 blue poppyseed crop might range from 13,000-15,000 metric tons, 21-32% down from the latest official estimate due to severe drought and as farmers are turning to other products such as wheat, maize, mustard and rapeseeds as their prices are at records since the Russia-Ukraine war started, according to trading sources.

Czech and Turkish poppyseeds prices started a bearish trend in April 2023. European blue poppy seed was quoted at $2,568/metric ton CFR NEW MED in August, slightly down from $$2,599 in July and 29% less year-on-year, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Turkish white poppyseeds 99.9% pure were priced at $3,515/metric ton in August, 7% more m/m and 13% less y/y.

Sep 27 - Sesame Seed Update: September 2023 (IHSmarkit)

- 10% y/y increase in Pakistan’s crop
- Ethiopian Fob prices have reached $1,900/metric ton
- Brazil strengthens its role as a key supplier of sesame seeds to India

International sesame seed prices have stabilized at highs, although importers are seeing a clearer outlook once Pakistan has started to ship its new crop to China and Sudan is able to export its through Port Sudan as southern origins and routes between the former and the latter are controlled by the army.

In addition, all African origins are expanding their planted area due to high prices as a consequence of concerns about supply due to the Sudanese civil war and the coup d’état in Niger, an important Chinese supplier, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal and Tanzania having seen a window of opportunity. In addition, Brazil has strengthened its role as a key Indian supplier and its farmers are aiming to plant sweet varieties to increase export to markets willing to pay high prices for high-quality product such as South Korea and Japan.

In addition, China has announced that its planted area will reach around 1.15 million hectares, up from 1 million hectares in the previous season.

All this data makes importers limit purchases as they are now worried about a messy supply chain.

India
India’s Kharif sesame production is expected to reach 3.63 million metric tons, 54% less year-on-year, due to unfavorable weather, bringing the seasonal production to 7.5 million metric tons, 5% less y/y and 25% lower than the initial goal of the government.
However, this data might change as farmers have increased their sown area to 2.06 million hectares, 34% more y/y, as they are conscious about the global shortage. That means India might need to raise imports to around 100,000 metric tons in 2023.

Spot prices averaged 18,300 rupees per quintal ($2,073/metric ton) in the Unjha (Gujarat, Northwest) wholesale market on 25 September, 5% more month-on-month and 34% more year-on-year. Futures prices are also stabilized at INR18,300-18,500/quintal for deliveries from October-December.

Indian sesame seed exports fell by 1% y/y to 148,620 metric tons but grew by 17% y/y to $310.7 million in January-July 2023. The main importers were South Korea (15,330 metric tons, -40% y/y); China (12,632 metric tons, -11% y/y); and the US (10,1017 metric tons, +1% y/y). Imports reached 61,730 metric tons in January-July 2023, up from 14,117 metric tons in the same period in 2022. The main suppliers were Sudan and Brazil, accounting for 46% and 37%, respectively.

China
China’s imports fell by 30% y/y to 550,680 metric tons in January-August 2023. Niger, Sudan and Togo were the main suppliers, accounting for 29%, 18% and 16%, respectively.
Niger (West Africa) has supplied around 153,380 metric tons to China in the first semester, emerging as a key supplier and cutting market share to other African origins such as Sudan or Ethiopia. However, the current political instability in Niger after a military group deposed the president, heralds logistics bottlenecks similar to the ones suffered by Ethiopia.
Niger has been selling its crop to China at prices slightly lower than the range from $1,750-1,850/metric ton negotiated by East African origins (Tanzania, Mozambique and Ethiopia). Chinese importers are keeping an eye on the Pakistani harvest just now.

Sudan
Sesame seeds are planted in the Gadaref region, a southern area close to Ethiopia, currently controlled by the army and enjoying reasonable stability.
The market is quiet as Sudanese exporters are asking for around $2,250/metric ton FOB which few importers are willing to pay.
In addition, there is a key factor: a good and safe logistics corridor between the Gadaref sesame growing area and Port Sudan. It is a major incentive for Sudanese exporters to push their sesame.

A lorry may take five-six hours between warehouses within this region and Port Sudan, not suffering assaults, which is why many Sudanese believe today that sesame will be their main export crop in 2024.

Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s exports rose by 2% y/y to 91,720 metric tons in January-August 2023. The main importers were Israel, the UAE and Turkey, accounting for 36%, 17% and 11%, respectively.
Whitish Wollega grade 3-5 averaged $1,900/metric ton FOB Djibouti, 10% more m/m and 50% more y/y.

Nigeria
Nigeria has started to ship its new crop with prices crossing $2,300/metric ton CIF Hamburg for white seeds. Its exports reached 138,397 metric tons in H1 2023, 34% less y/y.

Pakistan
Pakistan has been expanding its crop, encouraged by Chinese importers. Its 2023 crop has already been harvested, having reached around 220,000 metric tons in 2023 (+10% y/y), after being hit by floods in the previous season.

Brazil
Brazil started to expand the sesame planted area under Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency (2019-23), after signing a trade deal with India. However, Brazilian exports to this Asian market have been at lows until 2022. July data confirms the sharp increase in international sales. Brazil’s exports reached 102,710 metric tons in January-August 2023, five tons more y/y. The main importers were India, Turkey and Guatemala, accounting for 36%, 21% and 20%, respectively.

Outlook
Concerns about a global supply shortage due to political instability in Sudan and Niger are calming down as China is expanding its local crop and Pakistan is expecting a bumper production. In addition, Sudan might have a bumper crop in the 2023-24 season as the army controls southern origins and routes between the former and Port Sudan, keeping an eye on Ethiopia, which exports through Djibouti.

Sep 27 - Indian cumin seed prone to price declines due to slow exports (IHSmarkit)

- Indian cumin seed exports this July were sharply lower
- Coriander seed, however, is drawing increased overseas buying
- Turmeric price losses expected to be short term blip

Indian cumin seed (jeera) futures are expected to remain under pressure due to sluggish exports.

In its Commodity Daily (Agri) report of 27 September SMC Global Securities noted that India exported about 7,100 metric tons of cumin seed in July 2023 compared with 19,400 metric tons in the same month last year. The firm noted that Indian cumin seed prices remain uncompetitive globally, which has subdued overseas demand and hampered exports.

China, a major buyer of Indian cumin seed, has reduced its purchases in recent months, impacting overall Indian cumin seed exports. “The possibility of China resuming purchases in October-November adds further uncertainty to market dynamics,” SMC Global Securities added.

The firm noted that drier weather conditions in Gujarat are expected to lead to increased arrivals, potentially capping any upward price movement. It predicted that Indian cumin seed prices are likely to trade in range of 59,200-61,400 rupees ($711-737.54) per quintal.

Coriander seed
- SMC Global Securities said October coriander seed (dhaniya) prices on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange are likely to trade down on adequate stocks in the market. “However, losses are likely to be limited due to increased export demand,” it added.

India exported about 9,100 metric tons of coriander seed in July 2023 compared with 2,600 metric tons in the same month last year. China, Malaysia and the UAE have been the major buyers of Indian coriander this year. Going forward, prices are expected to move up in the wake of price seasonality.

SMC Global Securities forecasts Indian coriander seed prices to trade in a range of INR6,800-7,200/quintal.

Turmeric
- Turmeric prices slumped further on surging selling pressure in the market driven by an improved production outlook. Market participants offloaded their positions in anticipation of a rise in supplies in the coming months.
“Demand has been subdued at prevailing levels as most of the produce are coming in the market are inferior quality. Losses are likely to be limited on better export prospects. Demand for turmeric in both developed and developing countries has improved leading to an increase in export by 25%,” SMC Global Securities noted.

Between January and August 2023, 117,000 metric tons of turmeric was exported from the country, which compared with 111,000 metric tons during the same period last year.

Turmeric prices are expected to trade in a range of INR13,100-14,200/quintal.

Guar seed and guar gum
- Guar seed October futures are expected to remain under pressure due to muted demand in the domestic market. Fresh arrivals are expected to improve by the end of September and this is keeping stockists away from bulk buying. However, overall production of guar is estimated to be down 10-15% against the last year due to lower acreages that will restrict the major losses in prices.

SMC Global Securities suggested that guar seed prices are likely to face resistance near INR6,050/quintal whereas support is likely to be seen at INR5,650/quintal. Gum prices are likely to trade in a range of INR11,300-12,200/quintal.

Mentha oil
- Mentha oil prices are expected to trade down due to sluggish export demand of menthol. India exported about 1,500 metric tons of menthol in July 2023 compared with 1,900 metric tons in July 2022.

Its overall export of menthol was reported at 4,200 metric tons during the period of April-July 2023 against the 5,200 metric tons of the previous year. However, short covering is likely to be seen any time due to limited supplies in the market that will cap the major losses in mentha oil.

SMC Global Securities predicted that mentha oil October prices are likely to find support near INR920 and resistance can be seen at INR972.

Sep 26 - Hazelnut Update: September 2023 (IHSmarkit)

- Strong upward momentum in Turkish hazelnut prices
- 2023 crop estimate sharply lowered
- Turkish hazelnut exporters are in a ‘delicate situation’

Turkish hazelnut prices have escalated sharply over the last month due to downward revisions to the 2023 crop estimate and early demand for new crop material.

Unsurprisingly, views on this recent demand vary. Some sources report that it has been mostly within Turkey itself with little if any buying emerging from elsewhere. Others cite instances of an upturn in activity from European purchasers.

S&P Global Commodity Insights own prices data confirms the upward pricing trend with 11-13 raw hazelnuts latest (21 September) quotes at $8,500 per metric ton CIF CPT Europe compared with $6,550/t CIF CPT Europe on 24 August.

Spain’s 2023 hazelnut production is expected to reach 7,870 kernel metric tons (around 20,000 in-shell metric tons), 12% less year-on-year as trees are in an off-season (most nut trees alternates one season with a high yield and another with a low), on 13,000 hectares, according to the Spanish Almond and Hazelnut Association (Almendrave) and the ministry of agriculture.

Almendrave has highlighted that this data does not match the forecast released by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Association (INC) in May 2023 (2,500 in-shell metric tons), its officers not having clarified which data its estimate relies on.

Catalonia (northeast) is still the main origin, accounting for 88% of the volume.

Hazelnut trees are being damaged by severe drought, with farmers uprooting some trees due to low prices paid in the local market.

Farming associations reported that prices in the 2022-23 season averaged €2.50-2.75 ($2.65-2.92) in-shell per kg in the Reus wholesale market, 10% less than in the 2015-16 season despite rising purchases led by Nutella group.

Sep 26 - Ivory Coast’s cocoa grinding rise 9% y/y in August (IHSmarkit)

- Cumulative processing up 10.4% y/y
- Ivory Coast increases its grinding capacity
- ICCO projects an increase of 6% y/y in 2022-23

Ivory Coast’s cocoa beans grinding totaled 64,181 metric tons in August, according to the exporters' association GEPEX. This reflects a growth of nearly 6% from the previous month and 9% from August 2022. Cumulative cocoa processing in the 2022-23 season, which started in October 2022, amounted to 647,489 metric tons of beans, up 10.4% compared with the same period last year.

The GEPEX data covers six of the largest grinding companies, including Barry Callebaut, Olam, and Cargill.

This increase confirms Ivory Coast’ efforts to increase its grinding capacity and participation in exports of cocoa semi-finished products, considering that the country’s cocoa production has been lower this season.

According to the latest International Cocoa Association (ICCO) quarterly report, cocoa processing in Ivory Coast for 2022-23 is projected at 750,000 metric tons, an increase of almost 6% compared with the previous season.

Sep 25 - EU bell pepper wholesale prices recover amid a short-term supply gap in August (IHSmarkit)

- The EU average wholesale price bounced by 3% m/m in August
- More California variety was planted
- Spain’s exports decreased y/y in January-July

The EU average wholesale price of bell peppers rebounded slightly by 3% m/m to €92 ($98.68) per 100kg in August, up 14% y/y, according to the European Commission. The price recovery followed consecutive decreases for three months; there was a steep fall of 26% m/m in July. The 12-month peak was €160 in April this year. The bounced price in August was partly due to the short-term supply gap, according to one industry source. The Netherlands has finished the season earlier while Spain’s Murcia already finished the season. Almeria’s bell pepper season is starting with small volumes; a significant production is expected to be in mid-October.

- Some Spanish growers are seeing a two-week delay for the season, which was caused by the extremely high temperature during the fruit setting. On a positive note, Spanish growers are satisfied with the prices they have received.

- On variety, growers have shifted more areas to California peppers this year, driven by strong demand from both the domestic and export markets; there has been a mention of a 30% increase y/y in planting areas for California variety in Murcia this season.

 - In Spain, on 15 September, the bell pepper average price of all varieties was quoted at €1.88/kg (up 3% y/y) ($2.01/kg) at Madrid wholesale market, according to Mercasa.

- Italian average wholesale price recovered to €0.91 per kilo in week two of September. The price moved in the range of €0.87-0.89 for the past five weeks, according to the institute of services for the agricultural food market. Currently, the market is buying mainly domestic produce.

In January-July, Spain’s bell pepper exports continued to decline to a three-year low of 469,400 metric tons, down 11% y/y. Germany remained the largest destination, with 152,000 metric tons, down 6% y/y.

Sep 25 - Vietnamese customs authority detects massive fraud on raw cashew nut imports (IHSmarkit)

- Volume: 78,000 metric tons
- Tariff: 5% on RCNs processed for the local market
- Disparity between Cambodian sales and crop

- The anti-smuggling unity of the Vietnamese customs authority has detected fraudulent imports of 78,000 metric tons of raw cashew nuts (RCNs) by local processors, police following a deeper criminal investigation. The unity analyzed import and export and inventory declarations of the trading company DPT Import-Export using management data technology for a one-year period. Customs authorities detected that the company had an inventory of 78,264 metric tons against one of 250 metric tons declared by DPT. That means the company had 78,214 metric tons of non-declared RCNs, aiming to sell them in the local market.

- The company avoided paying the 5% tariff on RCNs and favored smuggling of processed cashews, particularly to China. The fraud is estimated at around 2.496 billion Vietnamese dong ($107,070).

- Vietnamese authorities are very strict about tariffs on RCNs, eliminating them when raw cashews are focused for processing and exporting to avoid a sharp fall in Vietnamese RCN prices, particularly since Cambodia has become a key supplier.
Analysis

- There were rumors about smuggling through Cambodia since the second half of 2021, with Vietnamese imports of RCNs reaching over one million metric tons although official estimates were around 600,000 metric tons. Vietnam has built a powerful processing industry with a focus on exports and huge subventions relying on export revenues. If customs authorities confirm extended smuggling, the scenario might change.

Sep 22 - ASIA COFFEE-Vietnam sluggish ahead of new crop season; Indonesia premiums ease (Reuters)

- Coffee trading in Vietnam continued on a sluggish note this week due to empty stocks, with traders awaiting the new crop season that begins next month, while premiums eased slightly in Indonesia, traders said on Thursday. Coffee prices continued to edge up this week, with farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, selling beans for 67,300-68,100 dong ($2.77-$2.80) per kg, up from last week's 65,300-66,500 dong.
“Vietnam has run out of stocks and little left in Indonesia,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.
“No selling pressure or purchase competition currently, so the prices will be stable around 65,000-68,000 dong.”

- Vietnam’s new crop season begins in October in theory, but beans will not come in bulk until late November, traders said.

- November robusta coffee settled down $32 at $2,508, as of Wednesday’s close.

- Meanwhile, Indonesia’s Sumatra robusta beans were offered at a premium of $480 to the November contract this week, down $20 from a week ago.
“It is because price was down in London terminal. I reckon the price will continue to go down but in a slow pace,” one trader said.
Another trader quoted $520 premium to the October contract, compared with $500-$520 premium range last week.

Sep 22 - India unlikely to export sugar in 2023/24 season, says ED&F Man Commodities
India is unlikely to export sugar in 2023-24 season as output will be less than a year earlier, Kona Haque, head of research at ED&F Man Commodities said on Thursday. India's absence from the world market would be likely to increase benchmark prices in New York and London that are already trading around multi-year highs, triggering fears of further inflation on global food markets.

Sep 21 - Low Vietnamese and Indonesian pepper crops herald bullish prices (IHSmarkit)

- 18% y/y fall in Vietnam’s pepper crop projected
- Fall in Indonesian production
- Chinese imports at lows

Pepper prices might follow a bullish trend from Q4 onwards as the Indonesian production is continuing to fall, after data unveiled once the harvest has concluded between July-August, and the Vietnamese is projected to fall by 18% year-on-year to around due to the combination of farmers turning to other crops such as tropical fruit and El Niño climatic effect, according to trading sources.

The gap price between the Vietnamese and Brazilian pepper has been reduced, although the latter is always aiming to be slightly lower than the former.
Meanwhile, the Indonesian pepper prices might grow due to limited supply.
Chinese imports are at lows as quotations for local crop are lower than those for the Vietnamese or the Brazilian.

S&P Global Commodity Insights listed the following quotations in August 2023 (CIF NW Europe):

•     Brazilian black pepper grade 1: $3,700/metric ton, stagnant m/m and 5% less y/y
•     Indian black pepper MG 1: $6,000/metric ton, 3% more month-on-month and 20% more year-on-year
•     Indonesian black pepper Lam Pong min 550g/l, mach. cleaned: $4,200/metric tons, stagnant m/m and 8% less y/y
•     Malaysian black pepper, Sarawak black label: $3,800/metric ton, stagnant m/m and 17% less y/y
•     Vietnamese black pepper, min 500 grams/liter: $3,850/metric ton, stagnant m/m 4% less y/y
•     Indonesian white pepper, Muntok: $6,200/metric ton, stagnant m/m and 11% less y/y
•     Malaysian white pepper, Sarawak faq: $6,000/metric ton, stagnant m/m and 14% less y/y
•     Vietnamese white pepper, min 550 grams/liter: $5,600/metric ton, stagnant m/m and 11% less y/y.

Sep 21 - Conab trims 2023 Brazil coffee output forecast due to climate (CONAB , IHSmarkit)

- 54.4 million 60-kg bags expected, down from 54.7 million forecast in May
- Adverse climate impacts to blame for lower output
- Arabica output: 38.2 million bags, Robusta: 16.2 million bags

Brazil’s food supply agency Conab lowered its estimate for the country’s 2023 coffee output, citing adverse climate conditions, with the country’s harvest concluding. This year’s production is now expected to total around 54.4 million 60-kg bags, a 6.8% y/y increase, but down from Conab’s May projection of 54.7 million bags.

The reduction stems from key regions facing low rainfall, extended droughts, and higher-than-average temperatures during much of the crop development, Conab said in its third harvest forecast on 20 September.

Arabica coffee production is estimated by Conab at 38.2 million bags this year, up from 37.9 million bags in the previous forecast and up 16.5% on a yearly basis. Robusta coffee output is estimated at 16.2 million bags, down 11% from 2022 and from a 16.8 million-bag estimate in May.

Conab highlighted 2023 as an “off-year” in the biennial production cycle, but noted that climate issues influenced this year’s crop, resulting in lower output.

The third forecast, published after 95% of the coffee crop harvest had been completed in late August, indicates that, compared with 2021’s “off-year” harvest, when 47.7 million bags were produced, this year’s harvest is 13.9% higher.

Sep 21 - U.S. Almond Update: September 2023 ( IHSmarkit )

- Weather developments being closely monitored
- US almond sector undeterred by marginal decline in shipments in first month of new season
- Sellers very cautious

Price indications
Palm Nuts & More noted that standard 5% for November is said to have traded at $1.58/lb FAS, and the seller then asked for $1.60/lb FAS.

It listed the following further price examples:-

    Cal/Carmel 27/30aol SSR for December-January are expected to be in the range of $1.72-1.75/lb FAS.
    Carmel/C. type 27/30 aol supreme is at $1.80/lb FAS.
    Carmel/C. type 23/25 aol supreme is at $1.90/lb FAS.
    Nonpareil 25/27aol USX#1 is at $2.15/lb FAS.
    Nonpareil 23/25aol USX#1 is at $2.20/lb FAS.

Dutch broker Global Trading & Agency recalled: “Over the past few weeks the almond market has firmed a little, the reason for this is most packers/handlers in California are now in a comfortable sold position for the 22 crop carry over with the August position report showing near record shipments for the period and strong forward commitments/sales. The past few weeks sales have been slower as California pull back from sales but this may not show in the position report until October and there is still a mountain to climb for California to sell and ship the total estimated supply of 3.40 billion lbs this season.”

Gerhard remarked: “Many markets were active over the last month as attractive price levels persisted up to harvest. Price has since firmed over quality concerns of the initial deliveries of the 2023 crop causing packers to take a more conservative approach until more of the crop is received and reviewed.” 

Sep 20 - Sharp fall in Mexican vanilla production (IHSmarkit)

- 16% y/y fall in production
- Largest origin: Veracruz (center east)
- High gap between local prices and quotations paid by US and Canadian processors

Mexico’s vanilla production reached 515 (fresh) metric tons, 16% less year-on-year, on 798 hectares, 30% less y/y in 2022, according to Mexican government data. The largest origin was Veracruz (center east), accounting for 78% of the volume. Mexico has halted its growth pace, after reaching a record of 609 metric tons on 1,046 hectares in 2022. Mexico has a potential crop of 1,200 metric tons currently, although many farmers have turned to other crops due to the gradual fall in prices and assaults to plantations.

Processors are currently paying 500 Mexican pesos/kg ($27.7/kg), which is half the average price paid in the previous season. Meanwhile, long-term contracts with US and Canadian processors reached MXN20,000/kg.

The Mexican government included vanilla in its promotion policies although severe drought, robberies and bearish trends have jeopardized its long-term goal of a 4,000 metric tonne production on 7,000 hectares.

Vanilla beans were originally planted by native Central Americans, being taken by the Spaniards to Europe in the 16th century. Mexico is a large and traditional grower but is focused on the local market, exporting only low volumes of high-quality product. 

Sep 19 - Sudan’s peanut and gum Arabic production set to fall sharply due to conflict (IHSmarkit)

- 25-30% y/y fall in peanut and gum Arabic productions expected
- Gum Arabic prices at record highs as processors are willing to pay rewards to secure supply
- Optimistic acumen in the sesame seed industry

The Sudanese civil war is worsening, logistics areas around Khartoum suffering bottlenecks and origins not controlled by the army gradually losing their workforce, heralding a sharp fall in the peanut and gum Arabic production, according to trading sources.

The local peanut and gum Arabic crops are expected to fall by 25-30% year-on-year against average, the general manager of FAAS Trade, Fares Oufi, told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Peanuts are a staple food in the local gastronomy and armed assaults against lorries driving to Khartoum and Port Sudan are frequent. “Criminals ask high rewards as they know they can sell peanuts in local markets,” Oufi explained.

Currently, Chinese importers are willing to pay around $1,050/metric ton although exporters are reluctant to sell below $1,150-1,200/metric ton FOB.

Gum Arabic is a different case as it is not at the core of daily consumption. European and US processors are running out of stocks as Sudan is the only origin which can replenish their stocks and they are starting to be worried about an international supply shortage. Prices have been quoted at $3,000/metric ton FOB for Grade 1, a record. Processors are willing to pay rewards to secure supply. “There are acacia trees in other origins such as Chad, Nigeria or Senegal although processors know Sudan is the main acacia tree origin and there is news about trees non-prepared to collect the gum as farmers are cautious about any countryside task, many of them having fled to bordering countries such as Chad or Egypt,” Oufi added.

Peanuts and gum Arabic are collected in areas hit by the civil war. “There is labor shortage and both productions might hit the rock bottom,” Oufi said.

Other origins such as Senegal, Mozambique or Tanzania are expanding their peanut planted area. Gum Arabic is collected from acacia trees and to find alternative origins is not easy in the mid and long-term.

Sesame
Sesame seeds are planted in southern origins close to Ethiopia, controlled by the army and enjoying social stability.
“Sudan is the largest global sesame seed origin and will remain as growers have an optimistic acumen after a season enjoying high prices. Currently, the market is quiet as Sudanese exporters are asking for $2,250/metric ton FOB and no importer is willing to pay that despite its quality being high,” Oufi continued.
“They are keeping an eye on the Ethiopian prices, not being influenced by western origins such as Burkina Faso or Nigeria. If Ethiopian prices cut prices, they might follow this trend,” he concluded.

In addition, there is a key factor: good communication infrastructure between sesame seed origins and Port Sudan. A lorry may take five-six hours between warehouses and Port Sudan, not suffering assaults.

Sep 19 - Walnut Update: September 2023 (IHSmarkit)
18 Sep 2023 - Food and Agricultural Commodities | Headline Analysis - China (mainland)- India- Japan- Turkey- Ukraine- United States- Eurozone- Chile
Policy & Regulation, Prices, Supply, Demand, Production, Exports, Freight & Transportation, Organics, Weather, Stocks, Climate Change

- Record domestic sales in the US
- 12% y/y increase in Chile’s seasonal exports 
- Bullish price outlook

The US walnut industry has closed the 2022-23 season with a promising scenario, having recorded high exports and record domestic sales. Meanwhile, China is still recording high exports and Chile has only around 15,000 metric tons to sell out before Diwali (November) and Christmas (December) festivities. That means a bullish price outlook after several months digesting huge carry-over stocks.

California
Californian walnut shipments rose by 52% year-on-year to 55.4 million lbs thanks to domestic sales in August 2023, bringing seasonal sales to (September-August) to 730.48 million lbs, 14% more y/y. Californian domestic sales were 257.1 million lbs in 2022-23 season, 32% more y/y, accounting for 48% of shipments in the 2023-24 season against 35% in the previous.

Exports totalled 460.8 million lbs, 1% down from the 2021-22 season. The main seasonal in-shell importers were Turkey with 91.8 million lbs (+3% y/y), the UAE with 41.1 million lbs (+59%y/y) and Italy with 23.9 million lbs (-40% y/y). Meanwhile, the main kernel importers were Germany (54.1 million lbs, -29% y/y) and Japan (37.9 million lbs, -10.4% y/y).

The updated carry-out projection now stands at 112,000 metric tons, showing a 17.4% decrease compared to the 136,673 tons carried forward from the previous year. 

California’ 2023 walnut crop is projected to rise by 5% y/y to 790,000 short metric tons (716,676 metric tons) although the bearing area fell by 4% y/y to 385,000 acres as some farmers uprooted trees due to the combination of low moisture in soils, weak prices for walnuts and rising production costs, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service reported in its 2023 objective estimate. Average yield is forecast to increase by 2% y/y to 1,004 nuts per tree. A cold winter and wet winter and spring restored soil moisture, improving also the average quality of nuts.

The Californian walnut industry has shown flexibility, after several key processors recommended uprooting trees to cut carry-over stocks and stabilize prices as inflation has hit consumption of nuts. In addition, growers have done it without being far from this potential from 750,000-850,000 metric tons thanks to combined actions co-led by the USDA and the California Walnut Board (CWB).

Chile
Chile’s 2023 crop was 170,000 metric tons, 9% less y/y, having already shipped around 62%. Currently, there is around 15,000 metric tons available for exports, with 5,000-7,000 metric tons stocked to cover the local consumption.

Chilean walnut prices are slightly growing, with exporters accelerating processing of large sizes, according to the Chilean processor and exporter La Invernada in its latest market update.

Prices are starting a slight recovery for in-shells and are growing strongly for kernels, due to shortage of the latter, with Indian and EU importers raising their budgets to cover the demand during the Diwali and Christmas festivities.

Chilean exports rose by 1% y/y to 19,706 metric tons (in-shell basis) this August, bringing seasonal sales (March-August) to 110,414 metric tons (+12% y/y). The main seasonal in-shell importers were India with 36,473 metric tons (+104% y/y) and Turkey with 18,715 metric tons (+18% y/y). The main seasonal kernel purchaser was Spain with 3,246 metric tons (+21% y/y).

Trading sources listed the following fob prices for Chilean walnuts in August:

    In-shell, Chandler 30-34 mm: $2.35-2.60/kg, stagnant month-on-month and 4% less y/y
    In-shell, Chandler 34-36 mm: $3.35-3.50/kg, ten cents up from June and 4% more y/y
    In-shell, Chandler over 36 mm: $4.10-4.30/kg, 8% more m/m and y/y
    Kernel, ELLHP40: $6.00-6.25/kg, stagnant m/m and 13-30% more y/y
    Kernel, ELLHP80: $7.80-8.20/kg, stagnant m/m and 20-26% more y/y

Sep 18 - Ivory Coast cocoa growers push for 44% price hike in 2023-24 season (IHSmarkit)

- 44% proposed hike to XOF 1,300/kg
- 2023-24 price reveal set for 1 October
- Global cocoa prices have surged in 2023

Cocoa growers in Ivory Coast are urging authorities to raise the minimum farmgate price for the 2023-24 season by 44% to XOF 1,300/kg ($2.11/kg). The request was made by the Ivorian Platform for Sustainable Cocoa (PICD) in a statement.

PICD, representing the nation's cocoa producers, revealed that the official price for the 2023-24 crop will be announced around 1 October. Its statement expressed growers' sentiment: “Cocoa growers are holding out hope that the field gate price of cocoa will reflect the price rise seen in international markets.”

For context, Ivory Coast, a leading cocoa producer, set the 2022-23 season's minimum farmgate price at XOF900/kg, marking a XOF75/kg increase from the prior season. Current estimates – cited by PICD –place the production cost of cocoa at XOF677.21/kg. This translates to a real income of roughly XOF222.79/kg for farmers, based on the past season's farmgate price, according to PICD.

The group also emphasized the global cocoa price dynamics: “Since the start of 2023, the price of a metric ton of cocoa has surged from $2,560 in January to $3,660 in September in the New York market, and from £1,994 ($2,469) to £2,990 in the London market.”

With this backdrop, PICD highlighted the expectation that authorities consider such factors, referencing Ghana’s recent farmgate price setting of around XOF1,126/kg.

Ivory Coast is also attempting to increase its grinding capacity and participation in exports of cocoa semi-finished products. The country’s cocoa beans grinding totaled 60,483 metric tons in July despite the lower production seen in recent months, according to the exporters' association GEPEX.

Sep 15 - ASIA COFFEE-Trading dull ahead of Vietnam's new harvest; Indonesia premiums flat (Reuters)

- Vietnam coffee prices edged up slightly amid sluggish trade ahead of the new harvest that commences in October, while prices remained steady in Indonesia on thin supplies, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans for 65,300-66,500 dong ($2.70-$2.75), up from 65,000-66,000 dong range a week ago.
“Market is dull as no beans left for sales while new beans have yet arrived,” a trader based in the region said. “Rains have been recorded in some parts of the Central Highlands but don’t harm the trees at this point.”

- November robusta coffee settled up $49 or 2%, at $2,479, as of Wednesday’s close.

- Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first eight months of 2023 stood at 1.2 million metric tons, a fall of 5.4% from the same period of last year, customs data showed. Coffee export revenue for the period reached $2.9 billion, up 3.1% against the January-August period of 2022.

- Indonesia’s Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at $500 premium to the November contract this week, unchanged from last week, one trader said adding the prices were stable. Another trader said this week’s prices were 20 points lower, at $500 premium this week to the October contract amid higher London price in the last two days. ($1 = 24,220 dong)

Sep 14 - Vietnamese cashew exports recovered a strong pace this August (IHSmarkit)

- 15.5% y/y increase in exports in January-August
- Ivory Coast, Cambodia and Ghana, the main suppliers of RCNs
- Record Ivorian production

Vietnam’s international cashew shipments rose by 11% year-on-year to 60,584 metric tons in August, bringing its global sales from January-August 2023 to 395,598 metric tons (+15.5% y/y) valued at $2.28 billion (+11.3% y/y).

The main importers were the US, China and the Netherlands, accounting for 23%, 15% and 10%, respectively.

Vietnam’s raw cashew nut (RCN) imports this August fell by 6% y/y to 341,628 metric tons, bringing its January-August RCN imports to 2.06 million metric tons, 35.4% more y/y.

The main suppliers were Cambodia (29.3% of the total), Ivory Coast (27.4%), Ghana (10.4%) and Nigeria (10.0%).
Analysis

Importers of raw and processed cashews are replenishing stocks, taking advantage of low prices as a result of global oversupply. However, the proximity of the Diwali festival in India is favoring a slight increase, WWW320 cashews being quoted at $2.41/lb in the week ending on 11 September, five cents up from August, according to trading sources.

Ivory Coast has emerged as the third largest global supplier of processed cashews, overtaking Brazil, after becoming the main supplier of RCNs. Ivory Coast has flooded the global market with a record crop of 1.4 million metric tons of RCNs in 2023 and is keeping a strong pace in processings, adding a bearish trend in prices. Meanwhile, Cambodia’s crop has fallen sharply with farmers uprooting trees after reaching a record in 2022.

As a result, Vietnamese processors might make African suppliers maintain low prices in the long-term.

Sep 14 - Turkish hazelnut prices show strong gains (IHSmarkit)

- Ferrero’s price of TRY80/kg compares with TMO’s TRY82.50/kg

Ferrero announced its Turkish hazelnuts buying price of 80 Turkish lira ($2.98) per kg in-shell on Monday, which is close to the Turkish Grain Board’s (TMO) price of TRY82.50 in-shell.

Prices in the general market increased following this announcement.

On Thursday, Olivier Telvi of UK trader Ronly Limited, which represents Turkish hazelnut processor Ronly Gida, observed that rain in the growing regions is causing further concern during the harvest period, also keeping prices firm for the time being.

“Feedback about the quality remains pessimistic for the time being, with a slightly better feeling in the western regions than in the eastern side of the Black Sea. We have also seen buyers who have been uncovered for Q4 come to the market for their prompt demand and put some inventory on the books for the upcoming busier period,” he added.

- Signs of panic buying after Ferrero’s announcement
- Slow arrival of raw materials after recent heavy rains
- Sellers increasingly cautious until volatility reduces

Turkish in-shell hazelnut prices have risen significantly since Ferrero’s announcement on Monday 4 September of its buying price.

Olivier Telvi of the UK trader Ronly Limited, which represents the Turkish hazelnut processor Ronly Gida, noted on Wednesday (13 September) that the price has increased to about 85-86 Turkish lira ($3.15-3.19) per kg compared with TRY70/kg around a month ago.

“This price increase is due to a few factors. First, Ferrero's announcement has created some panic buying among market players (some of whom had short positions). Second, the arrival of raw materials has been slow due to heavy rain in the growing regions last week. This has made sellers more cautious about offering their products until the volatility reduces,” Telvi explained.

He added that the current crop estimate is still around 650,000 metric tons “but of course we will not know for sure until later early next year”.

Sep 13 - Indian cumin seed futures supported by improved demand outlook (IHSmarkit)

- Favorable festival demand but dwindling supplies
- Cumin seed exports higher in Q1 (April-June) of 2023-24 season
- Turmeric prices also prone to upward pressure

- Indian cumin seed (jeera) futures prices are likely to remain higher due to better demand prospects, SMC Global Securities suggested in its Commodity Daily Report (Agri) of 14 September.The firm observed that festival demand has been good whereas supplies have declined and are likely to remain lower unless new crop touches the market. However, sluggish export demand is still a major concern for Indian traders as Indian cumin seed prices remained uncompetitive in the global market which kept overseas demand subdued. Official export data for July-August is due that will determine the further trend in prices.During April-June 2023, Indian cumin seed exports increased by 13.16% compared with the same period in 2022, reaching 53,399 metric tons.SMC Global Securities forecast that Indian cumin seed prices are likely to trade in a range of 60,000-65,000 rupees ($723.37-783.65) per quintal.

 Turmeric- Indian turmeric prices are expected to trade on a positive bias due to limited availability of quality produce at major trading centers amid rising festival buying.Crop prospects are weaker for the forthcoming season as the area under turmeric has dropped mainly in Maharashtra and Telangana which will prompt millers to buy turmeric with every dip in prices. However, improved crop condition in Maharashtra and Telangana supported by favorable weather condition in Maharashtra and Telangana is likely to cap the gains, SMC Global Securities added.Turmeric October prices are likely to trade in a range of INR13,600-14,900, the company predicted.

Coriander seed- October coriander seed (dhaniya) prices on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange prices are likely to trade higher with increased buying in the local market. Domestic and export demand for this product have increased in recent months.India exported about 11,300 metric tons of coriander seed in June 2023 compared with 2,400 metric tons in June 2022. India exported about 46,700 metric tons of coriander seed during April-June 2023 against the 8,700 metric tons of the first three months of the previous season.SMC Global Securities expects coriander seed prices to trade in a range of INR6,950-7,450/quintal.

Guar seed and guar gum- Guar seed September futures are expected to trade on a mixed note but possibly with a bias on the positive side.In the wake of better demand prospects and bleak production outlook, the downfall in guar prices is looking limited as drier weather condition in Rajasthan has hit the crop progress badly. The area under guar is already down by 10-12% in 2023 and now bleak yield prospects is likely to keep production down. Demand for guar derivative products has increased and this will support guar prices.SMC Global Securities suggested that guar seed prices are likely to face resistance near INR6,400/quintal whereas support is likely to be seen at INR6,000. Guar gum prices are likely to trade in a range of INR12,100-13,500/quintal.

Mentha oil- The mentha oil September contract is likely to trade down as a result of limited buying in the local market. “However, below normal supplies will cap the losses,” SMC Global Securities stated.It added that mentha oil prices are likely to trade in a range of INR910-960.

Sep 08 - Ivory Coast’s cocoa grinding maintains year-on-year growth in July (IHSmarkit)

- July cocoa grinding rises 5.7% y/y
- Government aims to increase cocoa processing to 50% of total production
- ICCO projects Ivorian cocoa grind at 750,000 metric tons

Ivory Coast’s cocoa beans grinding totaled 60,483 metric tons in July despite the lower production seen in recent months, according to the exporters' association GEPEX. This reflects a growth of almost 7% from the previous month and 5.7% from July 2022. Cumulative cocoa processing in the 2022-23 season, which started in October 2022, amounted to 583,308 metric tons beans, up 10.5% compared with the same period last year.

The GEPEX data covers six of the largest grinding companies, including Barry Callebaut, Olam, and Cargill.

In addition to being the world’s largest cocoa bean producer and exporter, Ivory Coast is also making progress with efforts to increase its grinding capacity and participation in exports of cocoa semi-finished products. The Ivorian government has a goal of increasing its cocoa grinding to 50% of the total cocoa beans produced, against the current level of 35-40%.

The International Cocoa Association (ICCO) forecasts cocoa processing in Ivory Coast at 750,000 metric tons in 2022-23, an increase of almost 6% compared with the previous season.

 

 

Sep 08 - Recovery in Indian cashew exports with prices stabilized at lows ( IHSmarkit )

- 31% y/y increase in exports in H1 2023
- Main importers: the UAE, Saudi Arabia and the Netherlands
- Main suppliers of raw cashew nuts: Ghana, Ivory Coast and Tanzania

India’s industry is fueling exports with prices at lows. Inflation has hit nut consumption, with a focus on cashews in the domestic market.

India’s cashew exports rose by 31% year-on-year in volume to 30,079 metric tons but fell by 2% y/y in value to $106.1 million in H1 2023, according to customs data.

- The main importers of cashew kernels (60% of the total volume) were the UAE, Saudi Arabia and the Netherlands, which took 39%, 12% and 11%, respectively, of the volume.
- India’s imports of raw cashew nuts (RCNs) fell by 10% y/y to 541,100 metric tons. The main suppliers were Ghana, Ivory Coast and Tanzania, which accounted for 29%, 17% and 16%, respectively.

The Indian cashew processing industry is seeing how the recovery in domestic consumption is not favoring an increase in sales, most players asking for promotion campaigns to recover the market share lost against almonds, walnuts and pistachios.

Sep 07 - ASIA COFFEE-Vietnam prices flat amid lacklustre trade until next harvest (Reuters)

- Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices were little changed on Thursday from a week earlier, with trading expected to remain subdued until the next harvest in October, traders said. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans for 65,000-66,000 dong ($2.70-$2.74) per kg, slightly up from last week's 64,900-66,000 dong.
“Stocks are also running out. We are in the last month of the crop season so trade is muted,” said a trader based in the coffee belt. “Beans are likely to come from November if everything goes well.”

- November robusta coffee settled up $3, at $2,456, as of Wednesday’s close, while the January contract settled down $7 at $2,360.

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount of $30-$70 per tonne to the January contract.

- Meanwhile, Indonesian Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at a $500 premium to the November contract this week, unchanged from a week ago.
“The harvest is done now. Coffee supplies are very limited,” one trader said. Another trader quoted beans at a $500-$520 premium this week to the October contract, the same as last week.
“Prices at the London terminal will not change much, while local coffee prices will be stable till the end of the harvest,” a second trader said.

Sep 04 - Cocoa futures hit 46-year high amid supply shortages (IHSmarkit)

- In London, the cocoa contract for December delivery hit a fresh 46-year high of £2,977 per metric ton ($3,773/t) on Thursday before closing at £2,950/t. The contract rose 9% from the price registered a month ago. London cocoa has been setting 46-year highs regularly since late June as the market continued to be supported by concerns over supply shortages and the forecast of a third successive global deficit.

- Similarly, New York cocoa settled at $3,638/t, after hitting a 12 and a half year high of $3,677/t earlier in the session. This is 3% higher the price registered a month ago.

- A Reuters poll published last week showed that the market expects a deficit of 173,000 metric tons for the 2023-24 season, up from an expected deficit of 128,000 for the current season. The world’s largest cocoa producer, Ivory Coast, is forecast to harvest 2.1 million metric tons of cocoa in 2023-24, down 5% from the previous season, according to poll participants.

Sep 04 - Sugar futures hit 12-year high amid dry weather in Asia (IHSmarkit)

In London, the white sugar contract for October delivery ended at $715.20 per metric ton on Thursday, after rising to a 12-year high of $740.20/t in the previous day. This is 5% higher than a month ago, when the contract closed at $699/t. Second-month December became the most-actively traded contract for the first time and settled at $703.10/t on 31 August.

This recent increase is attributed the prospect of tightening supplies as the dry weather, linked to El Nino, threatens crops in key producing countries such as India and Thailand. India had its driest August in over a century, according to data from the India Meteorological Department. The department said that the El Nino weather event will also have a negative impact on September rainfall.

Similarly, the raw sugar contract for October delivery closed at 25.06 cents per pound in New York, after hitting a two-month high of 25.89 cents/lb a day earlier. This is 4% higher than a month earlier.

Despite the unfavorable weather in Asian countries, the consultancy Job Economia forecasts record sugar production and exports in Brazil in the current season, which could limit the rise in sugar prices.

Sep 04 - Indian cumin seed prices stabilized at around INR60,000/quintal (IHSmarkit)

- 4-7% y/y fall in futures prices for deliveries from September-November
- 60% y/y increase in export revenues in H1 2023
- China has slowed purchases between May-June

- Indian cumin seed futures and spot prices have stabilized at around 60,000 Indian rupees per quintal ($7,253/metric ton) with traders worried about cutting sales with prices at records. Indian cumin seed spot prices averaged INR60,286/quintal at the Unha market (Gujarat, northwest) on 4 September 2023, 3% less month-on-month and up from INR24,615/quintal on 4 September 2022.

- Indian cumin seed exports reached 83,407 metric tons valued at $311.3 million in H1 2023, 1% more y/y in volume and 60% more y/y in value, according to customs data. China, Bangladesh and the UAE were the main importers of whole cumin seeds (94% of the exported volume), accounting for 38%, 18% and 4%, respectively.

- The updated daily futures market price on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) was:

    Deliveries in August 2023 closed at INR59,250/quintal on 18 August, 2% less m/m
    INR57,650/quintal for deliveries in September 2023 on 1 September, 5% less m/m
    INR59,280/quintal for deliveries in October 2023 on 1 September, 7% less m/m
    INR60,910 /quintal for deliveries in November 2023 on 1 September, 4% less m/m
    INR62,540 /quintal for deliveries in December 2023 on 1 September, 1% less m/m.

- Chinese importers slowed their purchases between May-June (around 1,000 metric tons) against February-May (around 30,000 metric tons) as they might have replenished their stocks, Indian traders analyzing if momentum has finished and predicting that prices might stabilize at around INR60,000/quintal.

Aug 30 - Indian guar gum futures prices crossing INR13,000/quintal level (IHSmarkit)

India’s guar gum futures prices have crossed the 13,000 Indian rupee per quintal level due to supply shortage when oil prices are rising.
India’s guar gum spot price averaged 11,755 rupees per quintal ($1,190/metric ton) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 4 August 2023, 22% more year-on-year.
Indian guar gum exports fell by 58% y/y to 52,075 metric tons in H1 2023. The main importers were the US, which accounted for 27% and 20%, respectively.

The daily futures market prices on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) were:
    INR 13,288/q for deliveries in October 2023 on 18 August, 14% more m/m
    INR 13,509/q for deliveries in November 2023 on 18 August, 14% more m/m
    INR 13,730/q for deliveries in December 2023 on 18 August, 14% more m/m
    INR 13,951/q for deliveries in January 2024 on 18 August, 15% more m/m

Aug 30 - Cocoa prices stabilize amid lower production expected in Ghana (IHSmarkit)

The cocoa bean price ended marginally higher last week as the market remained concerned over crop disease in West Africa, particularly in Ghana, and the prospect of a third successive global deficit in the 2023-24 season that begins in October.

The Ivorian cocoa bean price averaged €3,535 per metric ton ($3,842/t) CIF northern Europe last week, up 0.5% from the previous week and 56% from a year ago. Similarly, the Ghanaian cocoa bean price rose 0.5% y/y to an average of €3,688/t CIF UK last week. This is 48% higher than the price recorded last year. The current 2022-23 crop in the world’s second-largest cocoa producer is expected to total only 650,000 metric tons, well below the International Cocoa Organization's projection of 750,000 metric tons.

In the EU, both cocoa butter and paste factory price increased by 0.5% w/w to €7,016/t CIF northern Europe and $5,120/t CIF northern Europe, respectively. The EU powder price was unchanged at €3,000/t.

Aug 29 - Iran’s saffron industry closed 2022 with a strong recovery in export revenues (IHSmarkit)

- 31% y/y increase in revenues in 2022
- Main importers: the UAE, Spain and China
- Fall in Chinese tariffs might fuel exports in 2023

Firming Iranian saffron prices has favored a strong recovery in export revenues in 2022.

Iran’s saffron exports rose by 31% year-on-year in value to $201.5 million but fell by 30% y/y in volume to 215.7 metric tons. However, this data is far from the record of 277.1 metric tons valued at $370.2 million in 2018.

The main importers were the UAE, Spain and China, which accounted for 34%, 20% and 13%, respectively, of the volume.

Iranian saffron exports might reach pre-pandemic data despite high average prices due to Chinese purchases. The Chinese government has cut tariffs on Iranian saffron from 37% to 12-14% (depending on processing grade) and exporters expect China to overtake the UAE and Spain as the main importer.

Aug 29 - Vietnamese coffee export revenues increase (IHSmarkit)

- Coffee shipments estimated at 1.2 million metric tons
- Exports revenue up 3.3% y/y
- Vietnamese coffee prices in decline

Vietnam’s coffee exports between January and August 2023 are estimated to have decreased 4.9% year-on-year to 1.2 million metric tons, equivalent to 20 million 60 kg bags, according to data from the General Statistics Office. Coffee shipments in August are estimated at 90,000 metric tons, which would be around 20% lower than a year earlier.

In contrast, the agency said that exports revenue for the world’s largest robusta coffee producer, Vietnam, reached $3 billion in the first eight months of 2023, up 3.3% from the same period last year due to higher prices. Prices for Vietnamese robusta coffee grade 1 averaged $2.67 per kilo FOB in August, 20% more year-on-year. This increase was attributed to a supply shortage caused by extreme weather conditions.

In the previous report, industry officials predicted that this year’s coffee export revenue would exceed last year’s record of $4 billion.

However, local farmers reported that prices are edging down in a context of quiet activity as traders are awaiting new beans from the upcoming crop. They added that the cherries are in good condition and the weather is still favorable. The El Niño weather phenomenon doesn't pose much of a problem for the country, which has an extensive irrigation system.

Aug 28 - Indian turmeric prices continue to grow (IHSmarkit)

- 18% m/m increase in (unpolished) spot prices
- 21% y/y increase in exports
- Main importers: Bangladesh, Morocco and the UAE

The Indian spot fob unpolished turmeric price averaged 13,744 Indian rupee ($1,665/metric ton) at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, south central) on 25 August 2023, 18% more month-on-month and 95% more year-on-year.

The global crop has been disappointing and international demand is robust currently, triggering an international bullish trend with Indian traders launching speculative bets

India’s global sales reached 103,876 metric tons, 21% more/y, worth $115.7 million (-1% y/y), in H1 2023. The main importers were Bangladesh, Morocco and the UAE, taking 24%, 8% and 7%, respectively, of the volume.

The updated daily futures market prices on NCDEX were:
    Deliveries in August 2023 closed at INR14,800/quintal on 18 August, 16% more m/m
    INR16,714/quintal for deliveries in October 2023 on 25 August, 9% more m/m
    INR16,174/quintal for deliveries in December 2023 on 25 August, 5% more m/m.

Aug 25 - Garlic, turmeric and chilli prices do not find a ceiling in Bangladesh (IHSmarkit)

- 11-27% m/m increase in garlic prices
- Speculative bets on turmeric
- Ginger prices stabilized

Bangladeshi retail prices for garlic, chili and turmeric are keeping a strong bullish trend after ginger has stabilized, according to data from the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB) reveals.

The disappointing Indian supply of high-quality chili and the high European demand for Chinese garlic due to the disappointing Spanish crop, are fueling prices for both.

In addition, Indian traders are launching speculative bets on turmeric and the Bangladeshi are mirroring this trend.

Bangladesh is one of the largest consumers of spices in south Asia, importing from China, India and Burma as its domestic crops cannot cover its demand.

TCB listed the following average prices on 24 August 2023:
- Garlic, 200-280 Bangladeshi taka per kilo ($1.80-2.2/kg), 11-27% more month-on-month and up from BDT60-120/kg in the same period in the previous year.
- Turmeric, BDT200-340/kg, 13% more m/m and 30% y/y
- Dry chili, BDT400-520/kg, 4% m/m more and 30-48% more y/y
- Ginger, BDT200-400/kg, stagnant m/m and up from BDT80-140 in the same period in 2022

Aug 24 - Vietnam domestic prices edge down, thin supplies in Indonesia (Reuters)

- Domestic coffee prices continued to edge down in Vietnam this week amid muted activity as traders awaited new beans from upcoming crop, while in Indonesia, prices rose slightly on lower supplies, traders said on Thursday.

Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans in the range of 63,900-64,700 dong ($2.66-$2.70) per kg, down from 64,900-66,600 dong a week ago.
“Activities are muted now. We are waiting for new beans, which hopefully will come in late November or December,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.
“Everything goes well here as cherries are in good shape and the weather is favourable but as storm season is coming, we can not foretell anything.”

- November robusta coffee settled up $28 or 1%, at $2,402 as of Wednesday’s close while January contract settle up $19 at $2,324.

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount range of $3-$10 per tonne to the January contract.

- Meanwhile, Indonesia’s Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at a $500 premium to the November contract this week, up from $470 two weeks ago.
Another trader offered beans at a $500-$520 premium to the September-October contract, compared with a $500 premium two weeks ago.
“The prices were up slightly as beans are fewer,” the second trader said. ($1 = 23,985 dong)

Aug 24 - Brazil’s center south sugar production maintains solid growth in H1 August (IHSmarkit)

- Sugarcane crush rises 23% y/y to 47.9 million metric tons
- Cane harvest affected by rain in some regions
- Sharp increase in sugar output

Brazil’s center south sugarcane crush reached 47.87 million metric tons in the first half of August, up 23.38% year-on-year, according to data from the Brazilian sugar and ethanol industry group Unica. This brought total sugarcane processing since the start of the 2023-24 season in April to 360.05 million metric tons, an increase of 11.65% from the 322.48 million registered in the same period a year ago.

Despite the positive results, the industry group reported that occasional rains affected harvesting operations in some regions of the center south. This scenario serves as an alert to the risks of a potential El Nino at the end of the year.

In July, the sugarcane yield rose by 24.1% year-on-year to 98 metric tons per hectare due to the high participation of younger sugarcane fields in the harvest, according to the latest update by the Sugarcane Technology Center (CTC). A total of 261 mills were operating as of 16 August, against 259 mills a year ago.

In contrast, the amount of recoverable sugars per metric ton of cane (ATR) fell 2.19% year-on-year to an average of 149.23 kilo, while the cumulative amount fell 0.53% y/y to 135.09 kilo per metric ton of sugarcane.

Sugar’s share of the crush for H1 August was 50.77%, compared with 46.69% a year earlier, with mills continuing to favor sugar production over ethanol.

As a result, sugar production totaled 3.456 million metric tons in the first half of August, up 31.22% from 2.634 million in the same period last season. The cumulative volume reached 22.676 million metric tons, 21.88% more year-on-year.

On the ethanol side, some 2.346 billion liters were produced in H1 August, up from 2.015 billion in 2022-23. Some 12% of the ethanol produced in the period under review was made from corn.

Aug 21 - Indian guar gum prices to cross the INR13,000/quintal level (IHSmarkit)

- 11% m/m increase in spot prices
- 58% y/y fall in guar gum exports in H1 2023
- 13-15% m/m increase in futures prices for deliveries from September 2023-January 2024

Traders are launching speculative bets on guar seeds and gum as oil prices are growing and the Indian supply is at lows after farmers cut the planted acreage due to low prices in previous seasons. India’s guar gum spot price averaged 11,755 Indian rupees per quintal ($119.06/q) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 4 August 2023, 11% more month-on-month and 22% more year-on-year.

Indian guar gum exports fell by 58% y/y in volume to 52,075 metric tons and by 60% in value to $104.2 million in H1 2023. The main importers were the US (14,289 metric tons, -64% y/y); Russia (10,249 metric tons, -30% y/y) and Germany (5,798 metric tons, -65% y/y).

The daily futures market prices on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) were:
    Deliveries in August 2023 closed at INR12,600/q on 18 August, 11% more m/m
    INR13,067/q for deliveries in September 2023 on 18 August, 13% more m/m

Aug 18 - Walnut Update: August 2023 (IHSMarkit)

- Californian industry is relying on domestic sales
- 15% y/y increase in Chile’s exports
- Robust increase in Chilean kernel prices

The US and Chile, the main global exporters, have increased their sales and cut their inventories, a necessary scenario to start raising prices. However, the Chinese and Ukrainian supply is tempering this bullish trend.

The 2023 productions in the main suppliers are projected to be stagnant or slightly growing (around 2.6 million metric tons), matching consumption and accelerating the digestion of carry-over stocks.

California
- Californian walnut shipments rose by 48% year-on-year to 44.3 million lbs thanks to domestic sales, bringing seasonal sales to (September-July) to 730.48 million lbs, 12% more y/y. Seasonal exports are slightly behind the previous season, with 441.3 million lbs (-1% y/y).
- The main seasonal in-shell importers were the UAE with 47.1 million lbs (+64% y/y) and Turkey with 85.9 million lbs (-2% y/y). Meanwhile, the main kernel importers were Germany (52.3 million lbs, -29.4% y/y) and Japan (36.9 million lbs, -11.3% y/y).
- The carry-out projection has been revised to 92,000 metric tons in June, a 32% reduction from last year and a substantial 60,000 tons decrease from last month’s projection of 152,000 tons. Sales in July might cut carry-over stocks to around 60,000 metric tons, a promising data to start the new season.

Chile
- Chile’s 2023 crop was recently harvested and will fall short of expectations. Their 2023 crop might be around 168,000-170,000 metric tons, down 10% versus last year’s crop of 187,000 metric tons and down 12.5% versus this year’s expectation of 192,000 metric tons. The Chilean industry has already committed around 82% of the 2023 production, exporters negotiating how to cover campaigns for the Diwali (India, November) and Christmas festivities.
- Chilean walnut prices slightly grow between June-July, with exporters accelerating processing of large sizes, according to the Chilean processor and exporter La Invernada in its latest market update. Prices are starting a slight recovery for in-shells and are growing strongly for kernels, due to shortage of the latter.
- Chilean exports rose by 2% y/y to 27,219 metric tons (in-shell basis) this July, bringing seasonal sales (March-July) to 90,677 metric tons (+15% y/y). The main seasonal in-shell importers were India with 30,519 metric tons (+114% y/y) and Turkey with 17,168 metric tons (+36% y/y). The main seasonal kernel purchaser was Spain with 2,586 metric tons (+24% y/y).

- Trading sources listed the following FOB prices for Chilean walnuts in July:
    In-shell, Chandler 30-34 mm: $2.35-2.60/kg, stagnant month-on-month and 4% less year-on-year.
    In-shell, Chandler 34-36 mm: $3.35-3.40/kg, ten cents up from June and 4% more y/y.
    In-shell, Chandler over 36 mm: $3.70-4.00/kg, ten cents up m/m and y/y,
    Kernel, ELLHP40: $6.00-6.25/kg, 2-3% more m/m and 13-30% more y/y.
    Kernel, ELLHP80: $7.80-8.20/kg, 11-30% more m/m and 20-26% more y/y.

China
- China’s crop is expected to be flat at 1.4 million metric tons in the 2023-24 season, with a total supply of 1.52 million metric tons, 5% more y/y. China is the largest world origin and is projected to conclude the season with carry-over stocks of 120,000 metric tons, two and a half times more than in the previous season. Export data reveals these huge inventories might be at the core of weak prices as the international market is literally flood with walnuts which are not fulfilling the EU requests.
- China exported 99,830 metric tons of walnuts in H1 2023, 62% more y/y, and might be exceed the record level reached in 2021: 154,000 metric tons.
- Chinese light Amber prices averaged £2,900/metric ton ($3,824/metric ton) EXW UK in July, 2% less month-on-month and 16% down from January, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Outlook
The US and Chile are set to cut carry-over stocks at lows. The price level in the EU, the EU, Japan and South Korea will be driven by the 2023 Californian crop. It California matches the crop estimate of around 680,000 metric tons, prices might stabilize in Q4. Meanwhile, China is covering the demand for walnuts in markets willing to purchase low quality nuts at low prices. Ukraine’s production is also projected to have low average quality as farmers are minimizing inputs due to high prices and the Russia-Ukraine war. As a result, all players will analyze the Californian harvest between September-October to resume negotiations with suppliers.

Aug 18 - Cardamom prices are recovering due to disappointing Indian supply (IHSmarkit)

- 15% y/y increase in Guatemalan cardamom exports in H1 2023
- Indian supply shortage is fueling wholesale prices
- Main global importers: Saudi Arabia and the UAE

- Guatemalan cardamom industry is recovering exports, which are clearly ahead from the previous season and offsetting the disappointing Indian supply. Guatemala’s exports rose by 15% year-on-year in volume to 36,754 metric tons but fell by 22% y/y in value to $219.9 million in H1 2023. The main importers were Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan, accounting for 22%, 21% and 14%, respectively, of the volume.

- India’s cardamom exports closed H1 2023 with 3,398 metric tons valued at $46.3 million, 53% y/y less in volume and 55% less in value. The main importers were the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, which accounted for 32%, 18% and 8% of the volume.

Prices
Guatemalan cardamom prices have been stabilized at $8,500/metric ton CIF for seeds from April-July. Mixed yellow quality min 360 g/l averaged $6,800/metric ton CIF in July, 18% more month-on-month and similar to April, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

The wholesale price for Indian large cardamom averaged 2,033 rupees/kg ($24.4/kg) on 14 August, 44% more m/m and up from INR954/kg on 14 August 2022.

Analysis
Indian traders are close to selling out the 2022-23 crop and the new seasonal supply might be disappointing due to unfavorable weather. Guatemala’s crop was around 50,000 metric tons, the global supply being dependent on it. The 2023-24 Guatemalan crop is uncertain due to low average rainfall. That means the campaign to cover the consumption during the Ramadan festival in the Middle East and Central Asia will rely on Guatemala and prices will start a long-term bullish trend if its crop is not bumper or mirroring the previous season.

Aug 18 - Sri Lankan desiccated coconut exporters selling with discounts (IHSmarkit)

- 24% y/y fall in exports in January-July 2023
- Gradual fall in fresh prices
- Exporters selling with discounts

Sri Lanka’s desiccated coconut exports fell by 24% year-on-year in volume to 18,447 metric tons and by 38% in value to $36.9 million in January-July 2023, forcing exporters to sell with discounts. The main importers were India, Iraq and the UAE, which accounted for 18%, 10% and 8%, respectively, of the volume.

The fresh price averaged 61.4 Sri Lankan rupees ($0.19) per coconut in coconut auctions held on 22 June, 9% less month-on-month and 6% less y/y.  Wholesale desiccated coconut prices ranged from SLR520-545/kg for fine, 11-13% more m/m, and from SLR535-545 for medium, 3% more m/m, on 3 August, according to the Sri Lankan Coconut Development Authority.

International prices averaged $1,510/metric ton FOB for medium in July, 9% less m/m and 6% less y/y, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Aug 17 - Vietnam domestic prices edge down on global cues (Reuters)

- Domestic coffee prices eased in Vietnam, tracking a drop in the London market amid thin trade and near empty supplies, while trade was muted in Indonesia due to a holiday, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans in the range of 64,900-66,600 dong ($2.72-$2.79) per kg, down from last week's 66,100-68,000 dong.

- November robusta coffee shed $165 in a week to $2,378 as of Wednesday’s close, reaching the lowest level since April 18, Refinitiv data showed.
“The prices were down following a drop in the global market and positive exports results from Brazil,” said a trader.

“Some traders have started to quote prices for spot contracts in November, December, however, the weather is still a factor that we have to keep an eye on as storm season is coming and there may record other unusual weather events this year.”

- Vietnam is expected to produce 29.6 million 60kg bags of coffee from the 2023/24 crop, Reuters poll’s median forecast showed, slightly below the previous season. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has put Vietnam’s 2022/23 crop at 29.75 million bags.

Aug 17 - Record Spanish almond crop heralds bearish prices in the EU (IHSmarkit)

- Spanish almond prices averaged $3,76/kg
- Price difference between Spanish and US almonds at lows
- Lack of promotion campaigns force to cut quotations

Spanish almond harvest in in full swing and growers will conclude it earlier than average due to high temperatures and trees with record yields, particularly in irrigated orchards, according to farming and trading sources.

Prices continue to fall, averaging €3.45/kg ($3.76/kg) for Spanish almonds against €3.30/kg for Californians in Spain in the first fortnight of August. The price difference between Spanish and US almonds has fallen to 15 cents, down from 20-25 cents in June. That means local almonds are really matching US prices, a scenario which was avoided by Spanish farmers for decades as they consider local varieties have a higher average quality than the US. Growers might start to ship raw almonds of the new Spanish crop to processing plants in the third week of August.

However, most plants are closed until September, when the market will be flooded with a record crop or around 120,000 metric tons. In addition, California is projected to have a crop similar to the previous season, with high carry-over stocks and concerns about a weak demand.

The Spanish trader Hispania Nuts has explained that prices for Spanish almonds might hit the rock bottom in Q4 as the Spanish and the Portuguese industrie has been taking advantage of Californian promotion campaigns and not developing their own strategies for years.

The Spanish and Portuguese almond industry associations have agreed to develop shared campaigns this summer. However, these actions achieve successful results in the long-term, forcing producers and processors to cut prices to gain market share in the short and mid-term.

Aug 17 - Fall in the Czech poppy seed production expected (IHSmarkit)

- 2023 production projected at 19,000 metric tons, 14% less y/y
- 19% y/y fall in Czech prices
- Main suppliers: Czechia and Turkey

Czechia’s blue poppyseed crop is expected to fall by 14% year-on-year to 19,000 metric tons in 2023 due to the combination of unfavorable weather and the cut in the planted area, according to Czech authorities. This volume is 30% lower than the 2021 output. Many Czech farmers have turned to cereals due to their high prices once the Russia-Ukraine war started. In addition, drought in H1 and heavy rains during the harvest have lowered the average yield. Czechia is the largest European supplier of blue poppyseeds, competing with Turkey to supply the eastern European markets, which use poppyseeds for bakery and confectionery.

Trading sources quoted the following average prices this August:

    €2.34/kg ($2.55/kg) for blue poppy seeds with less than 20 ppm morphine, stagnant month-on-month and 19% less year-on-year
    €2.40/kg for those with less than 10 ppm morphine, stagnant m/m and 19% less y/y

Aug 17 - Sharp decrease in global demand for raw sugar (IHSmarkit & Czarnikow)

- Raw sugar consumption down 20% y/y in H2 2023
- Sugar demand to increase slightly in 2023-24
- Raw sugar prices up 31% y/y

- Global raw sugar demand is estimated to have decreased 20% year-on-year in the first half of 2023, according to the broker and supply chain services provider Czarnikow. Meanwhile, consumption of refined sugar was stable during this period, which indicates that refiners were using their stocks and waiting for lower raw sugar prices before buying larger quantities again. The company said that this scenario has recently led to increases on refined sugar prices and will reinforce a price floor for the raw sugar market as refiners need to restock. Any drop in prices will encourage more purchases of raw sugar, which in turn will support the market.

- Czarnikow did not disclose the amount of sugar consumed in H2 2023, but in a recent statement the International Sugar Organization (ISO) released its forecast for world sugar demand in the 2023-24 season, which is seen at 176.96 million metric tons, up 0.3% from the forecast for the current 2022-23 season.
”Higher domestic prices and limited product access in global hotspots is lowering consumption expectations,” the ISO said.

Prices
- Raw sugar futures climbed to 24.04 cents per pound in July 2023, up 31% from the monthly average of 18.35 cents a year ago, on tight supplies and a second consecutive deficit projected for 2023-24. Similarly, white sugar futures rose 24% year-on-year to $676.94 per metric ton. The El Niño phenomenon increased the potential for severe weather at the end of this year, particularly in Asian producing countries such as India and Thailand.

Aug 17 - Robusta coffee prices expected to jump 28% this year - Reuters Poll
Robusta coffee prices are forecast to end the year below current levels but still register an annual increase of 28%, a Reuters poll of 10 traders and analysts showed on Wednesday. Prices were expected to be $2,300 per metric ton at the end of 2023, down 5% from Tuesday's close but 28% above levels at the end of last year, according to the poll's median forecast.

Aug 16 - Cold weather raises concerns about upcoming cocoa crop (IHSmarkit)

- Cumulative cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports down 4.3% y/y
- Above-average rainfall expected to boost the next crop
- Lack of sun may damage cocoa pods

Ivory Coast’s total cocoa production since the start of the 2022-23 season, from October last year to 13 August this year, fell by 4.3% y/y to 2.299 million metric tons. This is a decrease of 1% compared with crop projections released seven days ago, according to exporters.

The world’s top cocoa grower, Ivory Coast, also saw a sharp year-on-year decrease in weekly cocoa arrivals for the period between 6 and 13 August, which totaled 7,000 metric tons, 22% less y/y. Around 3,000 metric tons of beans were delivered to Abidjan port and 4,000 metric tons to San Pedro.

Local farmers said that above-average rainfall in most of the country’s main cocoa growing regions in recent weeks will help the development of the upcoming main cocoa crop (October-March). They added that the trees are full of flowers and cocoa pods at different stages of growth, meaning the harvest could last for a long time.

However, the cooler weather and lack of sunshine over the past week has caused some concern among cocoa farmers. If the cold weather continues for several weeks, many small pods and flowers may die and consequently reduce the 2023-24 harvest.

Aug 15 - Madagascan clove prices soften as season starts (IHSmarkit)

- Commercial season starts in September
- Traders are selling out stocks
- 15% fall in Madagascan prices between July-August

Madagascan clove farmers are starting to harvest in the northern origins, reporting a bumper crop, according to trading sources. The commercial season will start in September. As a result, traders are starting to sell out their 2022 production stocks as they have concerns about a sharp fall in prices.

Traders are selling currently at 39,000-42,000 Malagasy ariary per kg ($8.62-9.28/kg), down from MGA46,000-48,000/kg in July. In addition, some growers are selling small volumes to secure daily cash. Farmgate prices are below MGA31,000/kg at the time of writing (14 August).

It is still early to forecast a long-term price outlook. However, the current bearish price trend is clearly a game changer after traders bet on record prices due to request from Indonesian processors, who were importing African crops due to a disappointing Indonesian supply.

Aug 15 - Indian coriander prices continue to grow (IHSmarkit)
15 Aug 2023 - Food and Agricultural Commodities | Headline Analysis - China (mainland)- India- Malaysia- Russia- Ukraine- United Arab Emirates

- 5% m/m increase in spot prices
- 6-8% m/m growth in futures prices for deliveries from August-November 2023
- China accounted for 51% of whole coriander exports

- Indian coriander prices are gradually rising due to the combination of a robust Chinese demand, mirroring market trend in the cumin seed industry, and disappointing crop estimates for the eastern European crops. The European harvests are taking place just now and there are rumors about a 30% year-on-year fall, forcing European processors to raise prices for imported seeds due to EU MRL’s requests. The Indian coriander seed spot price averaged 7,661 rupees/quintal ($85.1/quintal) at the Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 14 August 2023, 5% more month-on-month and 35% less year-on-year, clearly behind the levels previous to the Russia-Ukraine war. India’s 2022-23 coriander seed production is expected to increase by 19% y/y to 950,000 metric tons.

- Indian exports reached 71,206 metric tons valued at $73.5 million in H1 2023, up from 22,381 metric tons valued at $36.2 million in H1 2022, with China being the driver of growth, according to customs data.

- The main importers of whole coriander (90% of the total exported volume) were China, Malaysia and the UAE, accounting for 51%, 10% and 8% , respectively.

The updated daily futures market price on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) was:

    Deliveries in July 2023 closed at INR7,434/quintal for deliveries in July 2023 on 20 July, 15% more m/m
    INR7,364/quintal for deliveries in August 2023 on 11 August, 6% more m/m
    INR7,514/quintal for deliveries in September 2023 on 11 August, 6% more m/m
    INR7,700/quintal for deliveries in October 2023 on 11 August, 7% more m/m
    INR7,886/quintal for deliveries in November 2023 on 11 August, 8% more m/m

Aug 12 - Cocoa Weekly Market Briefing (IHSmarkit)

    Ivorian cocoa port arrivals still down from last year
    Indonesian cocoa imports more than doubled
    Cocoa futures in London rise to a fresh 46-year high

Production
- Ivory Coast’s cocoa port arrivals in the week to 6 August remained below last season. Total cocoa production since the start of the 2022-23 season in October dropped by 4.2% year-on-year to 2.292 million metric tons, the same difference compared with seven days ago, exporters estimated this week. The world’s top cocoa grower also saw a sharp year-on-year decrease in weekly cocoa arrivals, which totaled 9,000 metric tons between 31 July and 6 August, 18% less y/y.
- Ivorian farmers reported that above-average rain in most of the country’s main cocoa growing regions last week helped the main crop (October-March) to strengthen. They added that the main crop is expected to start slowly in September and pick up gradually in October. However, there are concerns that heavy rains in September could trigger cocoa disease.

Demand
- Swiss chocolate maker Lindt & Spruengli posted a first-half operating profit above consensus and raised its full-year revenue forecast, indicating strong chocolate demand. The company sales increased by 10.1% year-on-year to 2.09 billion Swiss franc ($2.38 billion) in H2 2023. The outlook for the financial year 2023 has been revised upwards to reflect sales growth in the range of 7-9%, based on the group’s assumption that geopolitical tensions will not worsen, and that consumer sentiment will at least remain at the current level.

Trade
- Indonesia exported 2,387 metric tons of cocoa beans in May, 37% more than in the same month last year, according to customs data. This brought total exports in the first five months of 2023 to around 7,876 metric tons, 7% more year-on-year. Malaysia was the main importer with a 94% share. Meanwhile, the Asian country’s cocoa imports totaled 31,612 metric tons in May, more than doubling from 12,900 a year earlier.

Prices
- In London, the cocoa contract for December delivery touched a fresh 46-year high of £2,759 per metric ton ($3,510/t) on Monday before settling at £2,613/t on Thursday. Cocoa futures in New York ended at $3,358/t on Thursday, after peaking at $3,618/t earlier in the week, the highest level since 2011. Recent price rises have been attributed to expectations of a third successive deficit in 2023-24 due to the El Nino risks and to excessive rainfall in West Africa, although some farmers see the rains as positive.

Aug 11 - Vietnam domestic prices steady amid tepid trade ( Reuters )

- Coffee trading was slow this week in Vietnam, with domestic prices staying flat against the previous week and traders keeping a close eye on the weather and the output ahead of the new harvest starting in October. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans COFVN-DAK in the range of 66,100-68,000 dong ($2.78 to $2.86) per kg, marginally above the 66,100-67,900 dong in the previous week. Vietnam’s July coffee exports fell 22.6% sequentially to 108,872 tons, government data showed. In January-July, coffee shipments from Vietnam fell 3.4% year-on-year to 1.12 million tons.
“July’s coffee export volume recorded this year was the lowest in the past 7-8 years or so,” a trader based in the coffee belt said. “London prices slid slightly following the news.”

Downpours and floods in the Central Highlands last week did not pose any threat to coffee trees, traders said.
“The weather is still favourable for the trees and productivity may remain the same,” another trader based in the same region said.
However, with farmers switching to more profitable fruit-bearing trees, cultivation area has shrunk, the trader said, flagging that it could squeeze the coffee output this year.

November robusta coffee settled down $16 at $2,543, as of Wednesday’s close.

- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at $470 premium to the November contract this week. The premium was $420 to the September contract a week ago. Another trader quoted $500 premium to the September-October contract, compared with the $560 premium last week.
“The decrease in price was due to a lower exchange rate of rupiah against dollar,” the trader said.

Aug 10 - EU updates import requests to US vanilla processors ( IHSmarkit )

- USDA recommends halting exports of US vanilla extracts temporarily
- No standardized procedure to obtain the requested certificate in the US
- EU concern about maximum residue levels of ethylene oxide

The EU has introduced a requirement for an official certificate providing guarantees from the US government about the compliance of US vanilla extract with the EU’s maximum residue levels of ethylene oxide. There is no current US government process for providing the standardized certificate which the EU is now requiring as a condition for entry of vanilla extract from the US. The EU will not accept third-party certificates from other testing facilities, including those in the EU.

Data from the EU Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) detected the presence of ethylene oxide in vanilla extracts from the US and the EU authorities considered as presenting a human health risk that requires special import conditions. This included certification provided by the US government regarding the compliance of this product with the Regulation (EC) No 396/2005 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 February 2005 on maximum residue levels of pesticides in or on food and feed of plant and animal origin.

Aug 10 - Turkish hazelnut prices increase after announcement of purchasing prices ( IHSmarkit )

- Long-term impact remains unclear
- Harvesting of new crop will start later this month
- Global supply is ‘more than adequate’

On Monday, Turkish president Recep Erdogan announced that the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) will purchase hazelnuts for the 2023 crop at 84 Turkish lira ($3.10) per kilogram for Giresun and TRY82.50/kg for Levant.

On Wednesday (9 August) Olivier Telvi, of UK trader Ronly Limited, which represents Turkish hazelnut processor Ronly Gida, observed: “The market immediately responded to the announcement by firming up, marking a change in market sentiment.”

Telvi noted that the long-term impact of the TMO announcement remains to be seen, as it is still unknown how many hazelnuts the TMO will purchase and what payment terms it will offer growers.
“Current crop estimates remain at around 700,000-800,000 metric tons,” he added. “Later this month, the industry will begin initial harvesting, which will give us a better idea of the yield patterns for the 2023 crop.”

In its latest market report Olam Nuts observed that crops across origins including Turkey, Italy and Oregon are looking good, and with Turkey’s approximate 200,000 metric tons of carry-in, supply is more than adequate.

Olam Nuts recalled that on June 22, the Turkish central bank’s monetary policy committee brought in a policy rate cut far lower than most economists were expecting, hiking the rates by 650 bp to 15% from 8.50%. Following the rates announcement, the US dollar to Turkish lira rate has traded beyond TRY26/$1.00 – a fresh low for the Turkish lira. “We expect the local market to move in tandem post the Bayram holidays,” Olam Nuts added.

The firm also observed that the US dollar prices for Turkish hazelnuts have declined from the highs earlier this year and have slid below the $5/kg level for the first time since November 2022. The availability of product, particularly in-shells, remains limited.

Aug 10 - Cashew shipments at strong pace due to European importers and promotion campaigns (IHSmarkit)

- Processors are developing promotion campaigns in Central Asia
- FOB prices ranging from $2.40-2.60/lb for WW320
- Northern hemisphere harvests close to concluding

The northern hemisphere cashew harvests are concluding and shipments to India and Vietnam are recovering as processors must replenish their raw stocks and falling prices have triggered rising exports to the EU, according to Olam Nuts in its latest market update.

Demand for processed cashews in the EU was very weak, and importers need to feed retailers, with high-quality cashews particularly. Prices for kernels are stabilized from $2.40-2.60/lb FOB for WW320.

Exporters are developing promotion campaigns, favoring raising sales in central Asia, a real game change when the EU recovers high purchase levels.
This outlook confirms S&P Global Commodity Insights previous coverage, with Ivory Coast’s exports of raw and processed cashew reaching records and India and Vietnam clearing out stocks.

Aug 10 - Sharp fall in Indonesian and Malaysian pepper exports (IHSmarkit)

- 52% y/y fall in Indonesia’s pepper exports
- Vietnam, a re-exporter of Indonesian pepper
- Japan accounted for 53% of Malaysian exports

Fall in Indonesian and Malaysian pepper steepened in January-May 2023. Indonesia and Malaysia are two minor pepper origins although with a higher average quality than Vietnam and Brazil, the main global suppliers. As a result, their exports reveal interesting trends in the US and Japan, which are willing to pay a high price for premium products

- Indonesia’s pepper exports fell by 52% year-on-year in volume to 10,545 metric tons and by 32% in value to $49.6 million in January-May 2023 due to the combination of a disappointing 2022 crop and weak demand.

The main importers were China, Vietnam and United States, accounting for 20%, 16% and 15%, respectively. This data shows the dual pattern of the Indonesian exporter industry, with high and mid-quality processed product shipped to China, Japan or the EU and whole product sent to Vietnamese processors.

- Malaysian pepper production is consumed in the local market mainly, being considered a premium product in the international markets. Malaysia’s pepper exports fell by 29% y/y in volume to 2,155 metric tons and by 33% y/y in value to $12.6 million. The main importers were Japan, Vietnam and Singapore, accounting for 53%, 11% and 10%, respectively.

Aug 10 - Ivorian cocoa port arrivals still down from last year (IHSmarkit)

- Cumulative cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports down 4.2% y/y
- Above-average rain favors the main crop development
- London cocoa futures hit 46-year high

Ivory Coast’s cocoa port arrivals in the week to 6 August remained below last season. Total cocoa production since the start of the 2022-23 season in October dropped by 4.2% year-on-year to 2.292 million metric tons, the same difference compared with seven days ago, exporters estimated this week.

The world’s top cocoa grower also saw a sharp year-on-year decrease in weekly cocoa arrivals, which totaled 9,000 metric tons between 31 July and 6 August, 18% less y/y. Around 5,000 metric tons of beans were delivered to Abidjan port and 4,000 metric tons to San Pedro.

Ivorian farmers reported that above-average rain in most of the country’s main cocoa growing regions last week helped the main crop (October-March) to strengthen. They added that the main crop is expected to start slowly in September and pick up gradually in October. However, there are concerns that heavy rains in September could trigger cocoa disease.

Aug 09 - Brazilian coffee exports slightly lower than last season (Safras & Mercado & IHSmarkit)

- Coffee shipments fall 4% y/y in July
- Harvest progress down 3 percentage points y/y
- Robusta coffee harvest is almost complete

The world's largest coffee exporter Brazil shipped around 2.346 million 60 kg bags of coffee in July 2023, 4% less than in the same month last year, according to customs data. This brought total exports since the start of the 2023-24 season in April 2023 to 9.328 million bags, down 12% from 10.619 million recorded in the same period last season.

By destinations, the US accounted for 17% of total exports in July, Germany with 11%, and Italy with 8%.

The consultancy firm Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2023-24 coffee harvest was 80% complete as of 2 August, up six percentage points from the previous week but down from 83% in the same period a year ago and from the five-year average of 85%.

It estimated that around 72% of arabica coffee fields have been harvested, which is down from 77% in the same period last year and from the five-year average of 80%. The company said that the arabica coffee harvest pattern remains positive in terms of productivity.

Meanwhile, the robusta harvest is drawing to a close with 93% of the harvest completed, marginally below last year’s 94% at this time and the five-year average of 98%.

Coffee harvest is progressing at a good pace due to the predominantly dry weather in most of the country's coffee producing regions, which favors the harvest process. The exceptions are Espírito Santo and eastern Minas Gerais, where rainfall disrupted the harvesting and drying process.

In terms of volume, around 53.07 million bags have already been harvested out of a total of 66.65 million bags estimated for 2023-24, according to Safras & Mercado.

Aug 08 - TMO announces hazelnut buying prices (IHSmarkit)

- More will be paid for high-yield hazelnuts
- Distinct absence of buyers
- Yield losses look likely due to earlier-than-declared start to harvesting

- The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has announced its purchasing prices of in-shell hazelnuts on the basis of 50% yield for the 2023-24 crop as follows:-

    Levant quality at 82.5 Turkish lira ($3.05) per kg
    Giresun quality at TRY84/kg
    Sivri Quality at TRY80/kg

- When TMO purchased high-yield hazelnuts it will pay an additional TRY1.65 yield difference to the farmers. In addition to this, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry will pay a support payment (area-based, diesel and fertilizer) of TRY2.70/kg to the producers. Producers will be able to make an appointment from TMO workplaces and on the TMO website as of 21 August, due to the appointment system. Although the product development is late this season, it seems that the farmers started harvesting earlier than declared, which will cause a loss of yield.

- On 2 August, Olivier Telvi of UK trader Ronly Limited, which represents Turkish hazelnutt processor Ronly Gida observed a lack of buyers, as they have started to shut down their productions and wait for the new crop. “On the other hand, sellers are still willing to sell their remaining material. TMO also could not sell all of its old crop stocks,” he added. Telvi also noted that for the time being the new crop estimate varies between 710,000-770,000 metric tons.

Aug 08 - Sharp fall in Indonesian vanilla exports (IHSmarkit)

- 82% y/y fall in Indonesian exports
- 60% y/y fall in imports
- Papua New Guinea accounted for 96% of Indonesian imports

- Indonesian vanilla exports (fresh, dried, whole and crushed product included) reached 60 metric tons in January-May 2023, 78% less year-on-year, and imports 41 metric tons, 82% less y/y.
- Papua New Guinea accounted for 95% of the total imported volume as Indonesia is, traditionally, a re-exporter of the former.
- The main importers of Indonesian vanilla were the US and the Netherlands, accounting for 60% and 14%, respectively.
- This data confirms S&P Global Commodity Insights previous report , in which we explained that demand is at lows as importers and processors are waiting for a sharp fall in prices as bumper crops have favored a record supply which might flood the global market.

Aug 08 - Brazil robusta exports grow as price gap to Vietnam remains high
Brazil robusta coffee export deals are growing quickly as coffee traders take advantage of the South American's country's significant discount to Vietnam and Indonesia, according to an analyst. In a weekly note for Brazilian risk advisory firm Archer Consulting, coffee analyst Marcelo Fraga Moreira said that international traders that sold robusta coffee to European processors in contracts that include "option for origin" are shifting from sourcing that coffee in Asia toward getting it in Brazil.

Aug 08 - Global sugar production outlook weakens; larger supply deficit seen
Global sugar production will be smaller than the expected consumption for a second straight season in 2023/24 (October-September) as near-record Brazilian output will not be enough to offset reductions in other regions, analysts said on Monday. Sugar consulting firm CovrigAnalytics said in a report that it expects a global supply deficit of 2.2 million metric tons (MMT) in 2023/24, while broker and supply chain services provider Czarnikow sees a deficit of 900,000 tons.  

Aug 07 - Sharp increase in Indian turmeric prices (IHSmarkit)
- The Indian spot unpolished turmeric price averaged INR12,663 ($1,538/metric ton) at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, south central) on 31 July 2023, 58% more month-on-month and 70% more year-on-year.
- The global crop has been disappointing and international demand is robust currently, triggering a global bullish trend with Indian traders launching speculative bets
- India’s global sales reached 85,519 metric tons, 27% more/y, worth $73.3 million (+1% y/y), in January-May 2023. The main importers were Bangladesh, Morocco and the UAE, taking 26%, 10% and 7%, respectively, of the volume.
- The updated daily futures market prices on NCDEX were:

    INR14,772/quintal for deliveries in August 2023 on 28 July, 50% more m/m
    INR15,714/quintal for deliveries in October 2023 on 28 July, 52% more m/m
    INR16,006/quintal for deliveries in December 2023 on 28 July, 49% more m/m.

Aug 07 - Price movement upwards for white sugar price (IHSmarkit)
- Raw sugar prices ended lower last week with the most-active raw sugar contract for October delivery settling at 24.02 cents per pound on Thursday (3 August), down 18 points from the previous session and 41 points from a week ago.
- In contrast, the white sugar prices in London posted gains last week with the most-active October contract settling at $699.00 per metric ton on Thursday, up $1.80 from the previous day and $20.50 w/w.
- Brazil, the world’s top sugar exporter, shipped 2.98 million metric tons of the sweetener in July, up 3.5% from 2.876 million recorded in the same month last year, the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) reported last week. Despite the increase in Brazilian sugar exports, limited global supplies continued to support futures.

Aug 04 - Ivory Coast’s cashew industry closed H1 with record processed exports (IHSmarkit)

- 29% y/y growth in in-shell exports
- Vietnam accounted for 79% of raw volume
- 43% y/y increase in kernel exports

Ivorian cashew in-shell and kernel exports closed H1 2023 with a strong growth, confirming that the market is accelerating processing. Raw cashew nut (RCN) exports rose by 29% year-on-year to 732,100 metric tons. Vietnam and India were the main importers, accounting for 79% and 20%, respectively. Meanwhile, processed cashew international sales rose by 43% y/y in volume to 19,880 metric tons, worth $91.6 million, 38% more y/y. The main importers were the US, Turkey and the Netherlands, taking 16%, 12% and 12%, respectively.

This data reveals that the international processing market is in full swing, with Indian and Vietnamese manufacturers replenishing their raw inventories. Local processors are resuming sales after slowed sales in Q1.

In addition, it confirms the rumors of an Ivorian crop higher than the initial estimate, flooding markets and pressing prices down. Ivory Coast’s 2023 cashew crop estimate has been increased to 1.22 million metric tons, 22% more than in the previous season and 19% more than in the previous estimate, according to the Ivorian Cotton and Cashew Council (CCA). CCA estimates that farmers have already sold 1.05 million metric tons of RCNs, keeping still around 100,000 tons.

Analysis
Ivory Coast’s processed exports are driving international prices. European and US importers have found a supplier to diversify their purchases and not remain dependent on Vietnam, with India focusing on the local market. That means bearish prices in H2.

Aug 03 - Vietnam domestic prices edge higher on global cues, weak export estimates (Reuters)

- Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices edged up from a week earlier, following a rise in global prices as weak export estimates for the top robusta producer and tight supplies from Brazil extended beans shortage concerns, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans at 66,100 dong to 67,900 dong ($2.78 to $2.86) per kg, widening from last week's 66,100 dong to 67,100 dong range.

- November robusta coffee settled up $38 at $2,532, as of Wednesday’s close.
“The prices are rising but not much. Bean export in the first seven months, according to the government, was slower than last year although it was anticipated,” a trader based in the coffee belt said.
“The rumour that Brazilian farmers refused to release beans in hope for higher prices amid supplies crunch also contributed to the increase in the terminal. “

- Coffee exports from Vietnam are estimated to have decreased 6% in the first seven months of 2023 from a year earlier to 1.087 tonnes, equivalent to 18.2 million 60 kg (130 pound) bags, official data showed.

- While Indonesia’s shipments of Sumatra robusta coffee beans stood at 14,858.14 tonnes in June, a 14% drop on a yearly basis, trade office data showed. Sumatra coffee bean exports rose 9.10% on a monthly basis from 13.618,1 tonnes shipped in May. Sumatran beans were offered at $420 premium to the September contract this week, down from $500 a week ago. Trader said prices were getting more favourable. On the contrary, another trader said the price went up 30 points, at $560 premium this week to the September contract compared to $530 last week to the August-September contract due to higher price in London terminal. ($1 = 23,757.0000 dong)

Aug 03 - Zanzibar starts the clove commercial season (IHSmarkit)

- Opening date: 3 August
- 40% y/y fall in production
- 4-7% y/y increase in prices for Grade 1, 2 and 3

The Zanzibar State Trading Corporation (ZSTC) has started the clove commercial season, opening its purchasing centers on 3 August, trading sources reported to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

International strong prices, due to a supply shortage, has made the ZSTC raise purchasing prices in most categories:
    Grade 1: 15,000 Tanzanian shilling per kg ($6.08/kg), 7% more year-on-year.
    Grade 2: TZS13,000/kg, 4% more y/y
    Grade 3: TZS12,500/kg, 4% more y/y
    Grade 4: TZS7,000/kg, stagnant y/y

The 2022-23 Zanzibar clove crop fell by 40% y/y to 4,730 metric tons due to the combination of unfavorable weather and pests.
Zanzibar’s cloves had a negative reputation on quality in international markets although its sales have recovered strongly due to a disappointing supply in Indonesia, as Madagascar and Comoros cannot cover this gap.

Aug 03 - Coriander seed buyers hesitant until more is known on new crops from eastern Europe (IHSmarkit)

- Clarity also sought on new crop prices from eastern Europe
- EU-compliant material commanding a hefty premium over non-EU compliant
- Russia largely absent from EU and UK markets

Eastern European coriander seed prices are varying greatly according to whether material is conforming to stringent EU regulations or not.
EU compliant coriander seed is obviously the most costly option but there is a lower availability of this material than that which is non-compliant.
Harvesting of new crops is ongoing now in Russia, Bulgaria and Romania and little is known of the likely outcome of these crops.

In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 (it started on 24 February) and this continued conflict the UK has imposed a hefty tax on any agricultural produce coming from Russia. Hence, not surprisingly there is very little coriander seed being exported from Russia to the UK currently.

Andrew Barker of UK company Justingredients told S&P Global Commodity Insights: “As far as I know, most Europeans are not buying Russian from a purely political point of view because they don’t want to be involved with Russian coriander. Also, the banks in Europe generally do not favor you paying documents for anything that is Russian so there is a lot of negatives about buying Russian at the moment. However, there is Russian coriander seed coming into the EU and from what I know, the UK.”

There is limited old crop Russian produce left available and prices being paid for whole coriander seed are around $700 per metric ton C&F. The new crop in Russia is said to be quite small. It is too soon to have any idea of what new crop prices will be but Barker said he expects a range of $700-750/t C&F on the whole coriander seed.

Delays on Bulgarian crop
The Bulgarian crop is unknown at this stage although growing and harvesting conditions were said to be good despite reports of a lack of rain. “It’s slightly delayed and it is a little too early to tell whether they have a good crop or not,” Barker warned. He noted that the delay could signal the possibility of a smaller crop this year.

In Romania, plantings have reduced in recent years and it is also too soon to gauge what type of crop this origin will have.
“There is a huge disparity in price between EU complying material and non-EU complying material from eastern Europe,” Barker added.
“Prices paid for EU complying material can range between $1,500 and $1,650 (per metric ton) C&F. However, material which does not comply – for instance some of the Russian and some of the Bulgarian and Romanian can be traded at around $850 (per metric ton C&F). The reason the EU complying material is so expensive is it is very difficult to grow and not many faming groups are doing much about it.”

Barker observed that this is similar to the situation with cumin seed in India in which EU compliant material costs $9,800/t C&F while that which is non-EU compliant costs $7,000/t.

Aug 02 - Sharp decrease in Vietnam coffee exports (IHSmarkit)

- Vietnamese coffee shipments down 22% y/y
- Increase in coffee exports revenue
- Switzerland leads destinations for Vietnam coffee in 2023

Vietnam’s coffee exports are estimated to have decreased 22% year-on-year to 80,000 metric tons (1.33 million 60 kg bags) in July, according to the General Statistics Office. This brought total exports in the first seven months of 2023 to 1.087 million metric tons (18.2 million 60 kg bags). However, coffee export revenue for the world’s largest producer of the robusta coffee bean increased year-on-year as coffee prices, particularly for robusta, have risen. The price increase reflected lower supplies from the top producers Vietnam and Indonesia.

The country’s revenue reached $1.68 billion between January and May 2023, up 11% from the same period last year and 73% from two years ago, according to customs data. The main importers during this period were Switzerland (24%), Singapore (16%), and the Netherlands (13%).

Vietnam is expected to produce 29.75 million bags of green beans in the 2022-23 season (October-September), down 6% from the 31.58 million bags produced in 2021-22 due to lower yields, high production costs, and a drop in cultivation area, according to the USDA.

For the 2023-24 season, Asian coffee producing countries such as Vietnam will be susceptible to drought depending on the intensity of the El Niño weather phenomenon.

Aug 02 - Ivory Coast cocoa port arrivals remain low year-on-year (IHSmarkit)

- Weekly cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports down 33% y/y
- Black pod diseases reported in some regions
- Improved weather expected to favor the next main crop

Ivory Coast’s cocoa port arrivals continued to be lower in the week to 30 July compared with last season. The world’s top cocoa grower saw cumulative production drop by 4.2% year-on-year from 2.383 million metric tons to 2.283 million, compared with the difference of 4% seven days prior, exporters estimated this week.

The country also saw a sharp year-on-year decrease in weekly cocoa arrivals, which totaled 10,000 metric tons between 24 and 30 July, 33% less y/y. Around 4,000 metric tons of beans were delivered to Abidjan port and 6,000 metric tons to San Pedro.

Local farmers reported incidents with black pod diseases that were triggered by heavy rainfall in late June. However, black pod diseases typically affect only a specific region and do not significantly impact overall production.

In recent weeks, Ivory Coast’s cocoa plantations have been experiencing a mix of rain and sunshine, which has helped the development of the October-to-March main crop, Ivorian farmers said.

Aug 01 - Sudanese peanut exporters ship peanuts with strong discounts due to war ( IHSmarkit )

- Sudanese traders aim to clear out inventories in Port Sudan
- Concerns about high moisture levels in Nigerian peanuts
- Mozambique’s industry is selling peanuts at $1,400-1,450/metric ton FOB to Asian importers

The Sudanese civil war is worsening and peanut exporters still are shipping the 2022-23 crop, although with prices ranging from $1,300-1,350/metric ton FOB, $100 less than other African origins according to the Indian peanut grower and processors PnutKing in its latest market update. They aim to clear out their stocks before the conflict affects their warehouses in Port Sudan. Meanwhile, the combination of a low yield and high moisture levels has made processors focus on the local market and many international purchasers have halted negotiations after analyzing samples.

Finally, Mozambican farmers have sold out their crops. Traders are negotiating just now shipments, with prices ranging from $1400-1,450/metric ton FOB, $100 up from the previous season due to low availability of groundnuts fulfilling requests from Asian importers.

Aug 01 - Brazil’s center south sugar production projected to be the second largest in history ( StoneX IHSmarkit )

- Sugar production expected to rise 13.9% y/y in 2023-24
- Weather conditions boosts sugarcane harvest
- Sugarcane crushing projected to increase by 11% from 2022-23

Sugar production in Brazil’s center south region is expected to reach 38.3 metric tons in the 2023-24 season (April-March), according to local consultancy StoneX. If realized, the volume would represent an increase of 13.9% compared with 2022-23 and the second-largest sugar production in history, behind only the 2020-21 season.

The current season has been showing good harvest conditions due to an improvement in weather since August 2022, when the center south began to receive a high volume of rainfall, favoring the development of sugarcane fields.

The consultancy expects the region to crush 607.7 million metric tons of sugarcane in 2023-24, which would mark the second largest volume ever crushed, behind only the 2015-16 season, and would be 11% less than in the previous season.

In terms of global sugar balance, StoneX forecasts a surplus of 300,000 metric tons of sugar in the 2023-24 season. This volume is less than the estimated surplus for 2022-23 and represents a cut of around 1 million metric tons from its forecast released in May. In contrast, global sugar consumption is expected to rise by around 0.8% to 191.9 million metric tons.

Aug 01 - Sesame Seed Update: July/Aug 2023 (IHSmarkit)

- Concerns about Niger’s supply due to political instability
- India is not losing market share despite high price levels
- Chinese imports still clearly behind the previous season

The international sesame seed industry has assumed that the Sudanese civil war will not conclude in the short-term, making it hard to ship its sesame seed crop in full swing. That key point explains why the Indian industry is not easing prices.

- Indian sesame seed prices are around $300-400 per metric ton higher than rivals in Africa and Asia (Myanmar and Pakistan, mainly) although processors trust on a strong domestic demand and high-quality requests from South Korea, Japan, the US and the EU, trading sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights. India and Pakistan are projecting bumper crops despite concerns that monsoon rains might have damaged plantations. Meanwhile, Mozambique and Tanzania have committed 65% of their combined crops.
- Ethiopia, another key origin in East Africa has not recovered its production level prior to its latest conflict in the region of Tigray (November 2020). If Sudan took advantage of the Ethiopian logistics bottlenecks in 2020-21, the latter is mirroring that currently, exporting through Djibouti. As a result, the Indian industry is enjoying the best of both worlds, with rising prices and robust demand.
- Chinese importers have been delaying purchases although most traders expect a sudden increase in its imports in H2. They have been successful in paying not more than $1,800/metric ton FOB for East African sesame seeds but they are far from replenishing their stocks.
India
- India’s Kharif sesame production is expected to reach 3.63 million metric tons, 54% less year-on-year, due to unfavorable weather, bringing the seasonal production to 7.5 million metric tons, 5% less y/y and 25% lower than the initial goal of the government. “This low record has made processors to focus on the local market, taking advantage of bullish quotations, mirroring similar trends for cashews some years ago,” an Indian source explained. However, this data might change as farmers have increased their sown area to 2.06 million hectares, 34% more y/y, as they are conscious about the global shortage.

- Spot prices averaged INR 19,200/quintal ($2,332/metric ton) in the Unjha (Gujarat, Northwest) wholesale market on 25 July, 14% more month-on-month and 51% more y/y. Futures prices mirrored this bullish trend on 27 July, reaching INR19,285/quintal for deliveries in August and INR19,520/quintal for those in October.

Indian exports fell by 15% y/y to 74,350 metric tons but grew by 3% y/y to $74.3 million in January-May 2023. The main importers were the US (6,736 metric tons, +11% y/y); 5,506 metric tons (+17% y/y); and Russia (4,960 metric tons, +33% y/y). Imports reached 58,776 metric tons, five times more y/y in January-May 2023. The main suppliers were Sudan and Brazil, accounting for 39% and 38%, respectively.

China
- China is the main global importer of sesame seeds, prioritizing African origins to secure supply. Chinese purchases are a good barometer to measure how the international market is working. China’s imports fell by 35% y/y to 437,555 metric tons. In H1 2023. Niger, Sudan and Togo were the main suppliers, accounting for 35%, 22% and 19%, respectively.
- Niger (West Africa) has supplied around 153,380 metric tons to China in the first semester, emerging as a key supplier and cutting market share to other African origins such as Sudan or Ethiopia. However, the current political instability in Niger after a military group has deposed the president, heralds logistics bottlenecks similar to the ones suffered by Ethiopia.
- Niger has been selling its crop to China at prices slightly lower than the range from $1,750-1,850/metric ton negotiated by East African origins (Tanzania, Mozambique and Ethiopia). Once the political situation clarifies, Chinese importers will focus on securing Niger’s shipments.

Brazil
- Brazil started to expand the sesame planted area under Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency (2019-23), after signing a trade deal with India. However, Brazilian exports to this Asian market have been at lows until 2022. June data confirms the sharp increase in international sales. Brazil’s exports reached 60,490 metric tons in H1 2023, up from 13,000 metric tons in the first half of 2022. The main importers were Guatemala, India and Turkey, accounting for 33%, 26% and 21%, respectively.

Ethiopia
- Ethiopia’s exports rose by 33% y/y to 79,812 metric tons. The main importers were Israel, the UAE and Turkey, accounting for 34%, 17% and 12%, respectively.
-Whitish Wollega grade 3-5 averaged $1,697/metric ton FOB Djibouti in June 2023, $35 more than in May and 14% more y/y.

Outlook
- Niger’s coup could have an unexpected effect on global sesame seed supply, fueling uncertainty and a bullish price trend after the Sudanese civil war started. Chinese importers have been delaying purchases to secure a price level of around $1,800/metric ton and this scenario is not plausible in the long-term. Other origins are conscious of it, triggering an expansion in the planted area.

Sesame prices might reach records in H2 if Sudanese and Niger crisis are not fixed, securing supply.

Aug 01 - Sharp increase in Indian turmeric prices (IHSmarkit)

- 58% m/m increase in (unpolished) spot prices
- 27% y/y increase in exports
- 49-52% y/y growth in futures prices for deliveries from August-December

The Indian spot unpolished turmeric price averaged INR12,663 ($1,538/metric ton) at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, south central) on 31 July 2023, 58% more month-on-month and 70% more year-on-year.

The Indian industry started the season with huge carry-over stocks of 170,000 metric tons and the slight recovery in prices might unveil that they are cleared out and traders are starting to ship the new crop. The global crop has been disappointing and international demand is robust currently, triggering a global bullish trend with Indian traders launching speculative bets

India’s global sales reached 85,519 metric tons, 27% more/y, worth $73.3 million (+1% y/y), in January-May 2023. The main importers were Bangladesh, Morocco and the UAE, taking 26%, 10% and 7%, respectively, of the volume.

The updated daily futures market prices on NCDEX were:
- INR14,772/quintal for deliveries in August 2023 on 28 July, 50% more m/m
- INR15,714/quintal for deliveries in October 2023 on 28 July, 52% more m/m
- INR16,006/quintal for deliveries in December 2023 on 28 July, 49% more m/m

Jul 31 - Vietnam cashew market on slowdown in July (IHSmarkit)

- Limited demand over course of the month
- Price unmoved by the lack of activity
- RCN supply is increasing

The Vietnam cashew market was mostly quiet in July with a significant decline in demand and transactions.

Ho Chi Minh City-based supplier Golden Bridge said this could be indicative that this is low season for cashew consumption with many buyers on their summer holidays. However, prices were unchanged with WW320s around levels of $2.35/lb when factories did not accept to reduce prices further or quality would be a problem.

Dutch broker Global Trading & Agency observed: “The market in general is in summer mood with a lot of buyers outside the office, enjoying (hopefully) their well-deserved summer holidays. This is particularly the case for the EU but also in the US buyers are not so active. Price of cashew nut kernels are stable and at very interesting levels. As written a couple of times before, the current prices are not sustainable as partners in the chain are losing money and this is not good for the industry long term. “

Global Trading also noted that supply of raw cashew nuts (RCN) is increasing, mainly from Cambodia and West Africa.
“This is creating space for lower kernel prices but in today’s market there is no parity with farmers getting low prices and most processors losing money. Demand is stable but we see slightly more interest. Current kernel prices are picked up by the supermarkets and we see special promotions showing up which will improve more consumer demand. Spot stocks are limited and when demand would pick up after the summer holidays, kernel prices also could easily move up rapidly. Therefore, we recommend to cover as prices are at historical low levels,” the company added.

Further comments from Global Trading on the cashew nut market and other key nut sectors can be found on its website.

Golden Bridge added that most people were surprised by the huge volumes of African raw nuts imported: in H1 2023 Vietnam imported nearly 1.5 million metric tons, 20% higher than the first six months of last year. Obviously, when kernel prices continue falling, there is no scope to earn profits against RCN prices now, the firm observed.

Jul 31 - Hazelnut Update: July 2023 (IHSmarkit)

- Turkey expects a decent sized crop
- Seasonal exports to end down from those of a year ago
- TMO announcement of buying price is eagerly awaited

With the end of the 2022-23 Turkish hazelnut season fast approaching, this key origin is expecting a 2023 crop of around 800,000 in-shell metric tons.

The exact figure released by the Black Sea Exporters’ Association is at 792,613 metric tons. This objective crop forecast is based on the work of a team of agronomists who have been doing this for more than 20 years. The forecast is broken down into 519,510 tons for the eastern Black Sea region and 273,103 tons for the western Black Sea region.

UK company Chelmer Foods noted: “However, there are some factors that could impact the final yield, such as the weather and the currency rate. The Association will continue to monitor these factors and provide updates to everyone as they become available.”

In its latest monthly report Olam Nuts noted that hazelnut productions in Turkey, Italy and Oregon are looking good, with Turkey keeping 200,000 metric tons of carry-over stocks and securing the global consumption in Q3.
Shortfall in exports

Meanwhile, it is clear that Turkey’s 2022-23 seasonal hazelnut exports will end up down from those of the previous season. In the week ending 21 July Turkey had exported 278,095 metric tons of hazelnuts, down from 317,000 metric tons at the same time last year. The Black Sea Exporters’ Association expects this season’s exports to reach 300,000 tons by the end of August.

Everyone is now waiting for the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) to announce its buying price. Some expect this to be done in the next two weeks.

Vittorio Friedmann of UK trader Voicevale said: “I don’t think it is in their (the TMO’s) interests to have too high a price. They lost 50,000 (metric) tons of exports in the last two years. They need a reasonable price to get back their volumes from the competing origins.”
Two-tier pricing

The TMO’s new crop buying prices are expected to be higher than those for the current crop – which many now refer to as old crop on the basis that it very soon will be because new crop will be widely available across the market. It has been suggested that it could be the equivalent of $3 per kg for in-shell hazelnuts, which would be similar to last year’s price.

Bruno Giroud of French trader Cap Industries said: “TMO is selling so there is pressure on prices for prompt shipment.“

Giroud added he expects the new crop to amount to more than 800,000 metric tons and fruits look very nice so far.

UK firm Chelmer Foods observed that harvesting is expected to be five-seven days later than usual, but the Association believes that this gap might be closed due to the recent good weather. After the TMO announcement, the Association will need to see TMO’s buying terms and follow the currency rate closely until deliveries start. “Ferrero's opening price will also be a significant factor in the market price settlement,” Chelmer Foods added.

Giroud commented: “TMO will have to be in the market and this is the reason why the market try to be conservative but we do expect TMO to give a price at $3.00 per kg in shell (the price in Turkish lira will depend on the US dollar parity at the time of announcement.”

He predicted that new crop prices will be sharply below the TMO price as there will be a need to sell in a nervous environment on the consumption side.

In trading in the week to 28 July current (2022) crop price indications on 11-13 hazelnuts were around $5,500 per metric ton CIF CPT Europe. Those offering on new crop (2023) 11-13s were asking for $6,000/t CIF CPT Europe.

On Monday (31 July) Maria Flanagan of UK trader Freeworld Trading said she had seen new crop prices on 11-13s of $6,200/t CFR EMP compared with around $5,900/t on current crop. “We expected that because we are towards the end of the crop now prices would start going down a little bit faster because they are holding a lot of old stock, especially of size 11-13. The prices did go down a bit but everybody was expecting the prices to go down even more. So a lot of customers are withholding their decision – they don’t want to make up their mind just yet because they are still hoping that the price will go down. Turkish packers don’t want to drop their prices any further and they are pricing new crop much higher than the old crop.”

Actual physical offers on the new crop should emerge in late August or early September.

Jul 28 - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- India set for decline in turmeric production
- Global vanilla output projected to reach record levels
- Indian guar gum prices gaining strongly

Production
- The Indian turmeric harvest concluded in May and the crop might be close to 1 million metric tons, 15% less year-on-year, and clearly down from the initial estimate of 1.13 million metric tons released by the Indian government. Supply is expected to be disappointing in the 2023-24 season due to a 15-25% fall in the planted area as a result of low prices in previous seasons; a low yield estimate due to negative outlook related to the El Nino weather phenomenon; and many farmers in northern states turning to maize.
- Nepal’s 2023-24 large cardamom production is projected to fall by 40% year-on-year to around 4,200 metric tons due to pests in mountainous origins and drought in valleys.
- Indonesia and Papua New Guinea might total a vanilla production of around 600 metric tons this year. Uganda might reach a record vanilla crop of around 300 metric tons. Trade sources believe that global vanilla supply might have reached a record between 4,000-5,000 metric tons against a demand projected at around 2,500-3,000 metric tons.
- Indonesia’s 2023 cloves crop is estimated to be around 100,000 metric tons, down from the range of 120,000-140,000 metric tons in years of normal output, due to unfavorable weather.
- Turkey’s 2023 cumin seed crop is expected to reach around 5,000 to 6,000 tons, with approximately 1,000 tons carried over from the previous season.
- Vietnam has had a bumper spring cassia crop, mirroring the previous season. However, its summer harvest is projected to be smaller than in 2022.
- Mexico expects an abundant chili output due to favorable rains, after two consecutive seasons with crops below average. US red chilies will be harvested in September and the outlook remains favorable. The US green chili harvest started in the second half of July and most players also expect this to be a high crop.

Demand
- Overseas demand for Indian guar gum has declined (see Trade below).
- The export market for Turkish cumin seed is inactive, and only local spice companies are making purchases for their needs. International cumin seed buyers are showing a preference for material from China and Syria over Indian origin due to the latter’s substantially increased prices driven by high demand from India itself, Gulf countries, and Far East nations.
- India is actively purchasing coriander seed both from its own crop and recently from Russia (see Trade below for details on the latter coverage).

Trade
- Indian guar gum exports between January-May 2023 fell by 48% y/y in volume to 52,075 metric tons and by 49% in value to $104.2 million. The main importers were the US (14,289 metric tons, -56% y/y); Russia (10,249 metric tons, +20% y/y) and Germany (5,798 metric tons, -58% y/y).
- India recently completed a deal of around 4,000 metric tons for Russian coriander seeds at approximately $600-615 per metric ton, with the cargo expected to arrive by the end of August.
- Vietnam’s pepper exports were 152,678 metric tons valued at $483.16 million in H1 2023, 24% more year-on-year in volume and 14% less in value. Meanwhile, Brazilian pepper exports were stagnant y/y at around 39,600 metric tons, worth $116.64 million (27% less y/y) in H1 2023

Prices
- Indian turmeric futures crossed the level of 9,000 rupees per quintal ($1,096/metric ton) for deliveries between October-November on 23 June, clearly higher than the spot quotation of INR7,828/quintal in the Nizamabad market (south central).
- July Indian cumin seed contracts, which expired on 20 July, saw a price increase of INR29 per kg without any apparent fundamental reason. Furthermore, August cumin seed contracts experienced a sudden hike of INR34/kg in just one day.
- India’s guar gum spot price averaged INR12,322/quintal at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 25 July 2023, 21% more month-on-month and 32% more year-on-year. Traders are launching speculative bets.

Forward view
- The turmeric August contract on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange is expected to trade in a range of INR13,000-13,900/quintal. Traders fear that spot market prices could reach the 2010 high of INR170 per kg.
- Madagascar vanilla prices might hit lows this October or November. In the meantime, importers will launch only small orders, raising pressure on exporters. If concerns about a record-low price for Madagascan vanilla becomes a reality, purchasers will be reluctant to import Ugandan product.
- Speculators in India are expected to raise cumin seed prices for August and September forward contracts to their target price of INR700 per kg, after which many participants are likely to offload their positions and book profits.
- Trade sources forecast a sharp fall in cloves prices from September-November due to carry-over stocks in African origins. However, a disappointing harvest in Madagascar might change this scenario.

Jul 28 - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- 4.8% y/y increase in the world almond supply expected
- Almonds, walnuts and pistachios are raising their market share against cashews
- 36% y/y increase in Chilean prune exports in H1

Production
The 2023-24 global almond supply is estimated at 1.57 million metric tons, 4.8% more year-on-year, due to bumper crops in the US and Spain. The US crop is projected to increase by 1% y/y to 1.18 million metric tons. The Spanish industry is keeping a high estimate of 143,756 metric tons, 67.4% more y/y, after the latest rains. Australia’s 2023 production reached 108,950 metric tons, 17.2% y/y less than in the previous season and 30% down from the initial estimate due to the combination of poor pollination and weather disruptions, both damaging trees from bloom to harvesting.

Chile’s 2023-24 raisin production is projected to fall by 3.3% y/y to 67,500 metric tons due to the fall in vineyard area. The planted area has fallen by 1.2% y/y to 41,500 hectares due to the fall in fresh grape prices. 

The 2023-24 world cashew production is estimated at 4.97 million metric tons, 1% less year-on-year, due to falling crops in India and Vietnam.

Demand
- Cashews are losing market share against other nuts such as almonds, walnuts and pistachios. Inflation is forcing consumers to choose specific products and they are keeping an eye on those which combine their traditional role as snacks and healthy properties communication through ambitious marketing campaigns. 
- Chile is expected to consume 3,600 metric tons in the 2023-24 season, 1.4% more y/y, snack and confectionary manufacturers being the main purchasers. 

Trade
- Californian almond shipments were down on both the export and domestic front last month bringing the seasonal total just 3.5% down from the same time last year. The 11th position report for the 2022-23 season showed that volumes sold overseas this June amounted to 186.6 million lbs, 33% less y/y. The June export figure brought export volumes for the first 11 months (August-June) of 2022-23 to 1.71 billion lbs, 2.2% less y/t.
- Australia’s almond shipments reached 10,070 metric tons (kernel weight equivalent, KWE), 42% more year-on-year, bringing seasonal (March-April) data to 18,020 metric tons, 47% more y/y. Domestic sales fell by 12% y/y to 1,661 metric tons in April 2023 and to 3,672 metric tons in March-April. Exports reached 8,415 metric tons in April 2023, 63% more y/y, bringing seasonal international sales to 14,349 metric tons (+63% y/y).
- US pistachio shipments reached a record of 39,310 short tons in June 2023, 8% less year-on-year, bringing seasonal sales (September-June) to 350,659 short tons, 9% more y/y. The main importers in June 2023 were China with 8,953 short tons (up from 3,961 short tons in June 2022), Germany with 3,032 short tons (-56% less y/y) and India with 1,645 short tons (8% less y/y).
- Sri Lanka’s desiccated coconut exports fell by 26% y/y in volume to 15,445 metric tons and by 40% in value to $30.7 million in H1 2023. The main importers were India, Iraq and the UAE, which accounted for 17%, 10% and 8%, respectively, of the volume.
- Chile’s prune exports reached 25,616 metric tons valued at $104.4 million in H1 2023, 36% more y/y in volume and value. The main importers were China, Germany and Mexico, which accounted for 23%, 13% and 9%, respectively of the volume.

Prices
- Trading sources listed the following FOB prices for Chilean walnuts in June:
    In-shell, Chandler 30-34 mm: $2.45-2.60/kg, stagnant month-on-month and 4% less y/y
    In-shell, Chandler 34-36 mm: $3.25-3.40/kg, stagnant m/m and 3% more y/y
    In-shell, Chandler over 36 mm: $3.70-4.00/kg, stagnant m/m and y/y
    Kernel, ELLHP40: $5.80-6.10/kg, stagnant m/m and 8-10% less y/y
    Kernel, ELLHP80: $7.00-7.30/kg, stagnant m/m and 4-5% less y/y.

- Weekly FOB prices for Turkish dried figs in the week ending on 1 July 2023 were:
    Whole dried figs, $3,364/metric ton, 22% less m/m and 21% less y/y
    Mated dried figs, $2,530/metric ton, 46% more m/m and 45% more y/y.

Forward view
- The almond, walnut, pistachio and hazelnut harvests are close to starting in the northern hemisphere. High inventories compiled since the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak have been at the core of international price trends, driving a long-term bearish trend. The pistachio and hazelnut industries are close to having a balanced inventory, driving bullish or stabilized prices. On the other hand, the almond and walnut sectors are still digesting their inventories, expecting flat or slightly higher crops, heralding low prices.
- Turkey and the US project to have dried grape productions of around 310,000 metric tons and 180,000 metric tons, respectively (stagnant y/y). They might take advantage of disappointing supply in South Africa and the gradual fall in Chile, triggering a bullish trend.
- The Indian cashew industry is starting to design ambitious promotion campaigns, once prices have been week for years. India is the largest world consumer of cashews and its population might be open-minded to buy new cashew-based products.

Jul 27 - Vietnam trade muted on empty supply, lower premiums in Indonesia (Reuters)

- Trading activity in Vietnam’s coffee market continued on a subdued note on empty stockpile, while prices in Indonesia were slightly lower this week as the situation became more stable, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans at 66,200 dong to 67,100 dong ($2.80 to $2.84) per kg, compared to last week's 64,800 to 65,600 dong range.
“Beans are so scarce now that they are enough for small purchases of local roasters only. It’s impossible for exporters to buy now,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.
“But the prices are sky high. Some roasters had to buy beans at over 70,000 dong per kg.”

November robusta coffee settled down $148 at $2,480, as of Wednesday’s close, the lowest level since mid-May, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. Another trader also based in the region said traders had started to offer 56,000 dong per kg for fresh beans of 2023/24 crop season delivered in December.

- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at $500 premium to the September contract this week, down from $530 premium last week as the condition now is more stable, according to one traders.

Another trader said the price for August contract was also lower, at $530 premium, down by 30 points compared to last week. ($1 = 23,663.0000 dong)

Jul 27 - South Korea to hold tender for sesame seed (SpicExim - IHSmarkit)

- Bids to open on 1 August
- Hopes for India to secure a large share
- Indonesian clove prices have declined

- South Korea has announced a tender for 8,100 metric tons of sesame seed, and the bid will open on 1 August. Indian broker SpicExim noted that despite sesame seed prices $200-300 per metric ton higher than other producing countries, there is hope that India might still secure a major share in the tender.

Cloves
SpicExim observed that with Indonesian cigarette/kretek companies not purchasing in Indonesia after the Eid holidays, Indonesian clove prices have drifted lower. “However, as many contracts are still pending, we have not witnessed a sharp fall in the cloves prices,” it added.
The Comoros crop is delayed and expected to be a very small crop of about 2,000 metric tons at most.

Pepper
Brazilian pepper prices remained stable to firm, as farmers continued to hold the product in hopes of realisation of better prices. Sri Lankan pepper prices have moved up sharply on strong Indian demand.

Jul 27 - Brazil coffee harvest progresses at a fast pace (Cooxupé - IHSmarkit)

- Cooxupé’s coffee harvest 8.3 percentage points ahead of last year
- Plantation development boosted by favorable weather
- Brazil coffee output expected to rise 7.5% y/y

Cooxupé, the world's largest coffee cooperative and Brazil's biggest coffee exporter, reported this week that the 2023 coffee harvest in the areas where it operates reached 58.8% of the fields by 21 July, up 8.3 percentage points from the previous week and 6.2 from 52.6% recorded at the same time last year.

This is the most advanced pace for the period since 2020, when the cooperative harvested 61.2% of coffee fields. The positive result is attributed to the regular rains during the flowering period, which led to a more uniform maturation of the fruits. In addition, there was no drought or frost, as experienced in 2021.

With the advanced harvest, Brazil is expected to produce 54.92 million 60 kg bags in 2023, 7.5% more year-on-year from 50.92 million bags, according to the latest estimates of Brazilian national supply company Conab.

Jul 27 - Bullish garlic and chili market trends in Bangladesh despite stabilized prices for turmeric and ginger (IHSmarkit)

- Stabilized demand for spices once the Eid-Ul-Adha festival has concluded
- High European demand for Chinese garlic
- High-quality chili shortage

- Bangladeshi retail prices for garlic and chili are keeping a strong bullish trend although prices for turmeric and ginger have stabilized once the Eid-Ul-Adha festival has concluded (27-30 June), data from the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB) reveals. On the other hand, the high-quality chili in India, the main supplier of Bangladesh, and the high European demand for Chinese garlic due to the disappointing Spanish crop, are fueling prices for both.

- Bangladesh is one of the largest consumers of spices in south Asia, importing from China, India and Burma as its domestic crops cannot cover its demand.

- TCB listed the following average prices on 27 July 2023:
    Garlic, 200-280 Bangladeshi taka per kilo ($1.82-2.28/kg) on 27 July, up from BDT60-120/kg in the same period in the previous year.
    Turmeric, BDT200-300/kg, stagnant m/m and y/y
    Dry chili, BDT400-500/kg, 11% m/m more and 25% more y/y
    Ginger, BDT150-400/kg, stagnant m/m and up from BDT80-140 in the same period in 2022

Jul 26 - Crop monitoring unit cuts EU sugar beet yield forecast (IHSmarkit)

- Dry weather affects sugar beet yield forecast
- Sugar beet yield reduced to 73.3 metric tons per hectare
- MARS lowers yield forecast for France, Germany and Poland

The EU crop monitoring unit MARS cut its estimate of the average sugar beet yield in the upcoming 2023-24 crop to 73.3 metric tons per ha from 75.9 in the June forecast citing dry weather conditions. If realized, this would still be slightly above the five-year average of 72.0 metric tons per ha.

The yield forecasts were reduced for all of the three largest producers with the projection for France dropping to 80.6 tons per ha from 82.2 previously and the projection for Germany being reduced to 74.0 metric tons per ha from 77.2. The yield outlook of Poland decreased to 62.9 metric tons per ha from 63.4. There were also downward revisions of the yield outlook for the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Sweden and Hungary.

The yield projections for Austria, the Czech Republic and Italy are now slightly higher than before, while those for Spain and Slovakia did not change.

Jul 26 - Indian turmeric prices escalate sharply on crop concerns (IHSmarkit)

- Lack of rain in key regions of Maharashtra
- Decline in planted area in Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh
- Quality also compromised

Indian turmeric prices have surged to nearly a 13-year high due to concerns about lower crop area this year and a shortage of seeds in some regions for farmers to re-sow, SpicExim observed in its latest weekly market report. The firm explained that traders fear that prices could reach the 2010 high of 170 rupees ($2.07) per kg in the spot market. “Turmeric exports have increased by 11% year on year in the 2022-23 fiscal year, and the rise in prices can be attributed to rainfall deficiency in Maharashtra's Marathwada and Vidarbha regions, along with a drop in acreage in Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh due to inadequate rains,” it stated.

Unseasonal rains in March have affected the quality of the turmeric crop, boosting demand for high quality turmeric and subsequently pushing prices higher. “Exchange prices for turmeric have reached the highest level in the last 13 years. We expect that prices might soon touch INR170 per kg, surpassing the levels witnessed in 2011,” SpicExim concluded.

In its daily spices report of 26 July SMC Global Securities noted: “Turmeric prices resumed its uptrend on supply concerns. Fall in area and slower sowing progress is likely to support firmness in prices. Area has already dropped and now yield is also likely to fall due to adverse weather condition in major producing states.”

SMC Global Securities predicted that the turmeric August contract on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange is likely to trade in a range of INR13,000-13,900 per quintal.

Jul 26 - Sharp fall in Nepal’s cardamom production expected (IHSmarkit)

- 40% y/y fall in the 2023-24 crop projected
- Bullish prices due to disappointing Indian supply
- Nepal’s harvest: September-December

Nepal’s 2023-24 large cardamom production is projected to fall by 40% year-on-year to around 4,200 metric tons due to pests in mountainous origins and drought in valleys, according to farming associations. This disappointing supply might fuel the limited availability of Indian cardamom, after the latest report about a low crop in this origin also.

Indian processors are the main purchasers of Nepalese and Bhutanese raw large cardamom, driving stabilized prices in previous seasons.

Nepal’s cardamom exports average around 5,000 metric tons. However, its domestic crop has a potential of around 30,000-40,000 metric tons against the current average of around 8,000 metric tons, as low prices make farmers keep an eye on other crops such as chili. The Nepalese harvest will take place from September-December, mirroring the Indian harvest calendar.

Jul 25 - Sharp increase in Indian guar gum prices (IHSmarkit)

- 1% m/m increase in spot prices
- 48% y/y fall in guar gum exports in Jan-May 2023
- 20-21% m/m increase in futures prices for deliveries from August 2023-January 2024

India’s guar gum spot price averaged 12,322 Indian rupees per quintal ($1,504.5/q) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 25 July 2023, 21% more month-on-month and 32% more year-on-year. Traders are launching speculative bets and it is hard to know if this bullish trend will continue or not.

Indian guar gum exports fell by 48% y/y in volume to 52,075 metric tons and by 49% in value to $104.2 million. The main importers were the US (14,289 metric tons, -56% y/y); Russia (10,249 metric tons, +20% y/y) and Germany (5,798 metric tons, -58% y/y).

- The daily futures market prices on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) were:
    Deliveries in July closed at INR11,474/q for deliveries on 20 June, 8% more m/m
    INR12,286/q for deliveries in August 2023 on 24 July, 20% more m/m

Jul 25 - Almond Update: July 2023 (IHSmarkit)

- US 2023 almond crop expected to be 1% higher than that of last year
- June shipments viewed as ‘disappointing’
- Total US supply for next season looks set to be similar to current season (2022-23)

The attention of the global almond market is invariably on the release of the next position report from the Almond Board of California (ABC) and last month was no exception. June does though also draw attention to another key influence – the release of the USDA’s objective crop estimate.

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Pacific regional office forecast the 2023 California almond crop to reach 2.60 billion pounds, 4% up from May’s subjective projection of 2.5 billion lbs and 1% above last year’s final production of 2.57 billion lbs.

The Nonpareil variety is forecast to account for 42% of the total crop, at 1.10 billion lbs.

The almond bloom was hindered by record level rainfall and unprecedented stormy conditions, which led to a decrease in nut set per tree. However, the average kernel weight was up 14% from the 2022 average weight, resulting in larger almonds overall.

Almond bearing acres are estimated at 1.38 million 2% above the 2022 bearing area of 1.35 million. Yield is put at 1,880 lbs per acre, down 10 lbs from last year, and the lowest since 2005.
“The almond bloom began in the middle of February and peaked at the end of the month. Record level rainfall and unprecedented stormy conditions impacted pollination,” the USDA noted. “Cooler than normal temperatures continued through early summer and delayed the maturity of the crop,” it added.

James Weaire, director at UK company Chelmer Foods remarked: “This estimate is not what Californian farmers wanted to hear as at current prices the return to growers will not cover their costs let alone any mortgages, and we will defiantly see great pull-out of orchards!”

Laura Gerhard, vice president of the global ingredients division of US company Blue Diamond Growers, noted that the indicated 2.6 billion lbs was a surprise to many in the industry who were expecting the objective estimate to fall in the range of 2.4- 2.5 billion lbs.

Gerhard added: “With one shipping month remaining in the 2022 crop year, it is likely the carry-out comes in under 800 million lbs. This is down from last year’s 837 million lbs record carry-out. With the updated forecast of 2.6 billion lbs, this puts the projected total supply for the 2023 crop year around 3.4 billion lbs. This would be on par compared to the current crop year.”

Similarly, Joost Hendriks, sales and purchase director at Spanish almond supplier Calconut, said that the higher-than-expected crop estimate combined with the higher-than-expected carry-over of old crop stock means that there will be similar total supply for the 2023-24 season. “Spain is having a record crop and will definitely push to gain market in Europe,” he added.

Jul 25 - Speculators continue to call the shots in Indian cumin seed market ( IHSmarkit)

- July contracts gain 29 rupees per kg
- Buyers favor cumin seeds from China and Syria
- A lot of suppliers have defaulted

The Indian cumin seeds market continues to be heavily influenced by speculators, leading to unusual price fluctuations.
- Broker SpicExim noted in its latest weekly report that July contracts, which expired on 20 July, saw a price increase of 29 rupees ($0.35) per kg without any apparent fundamental reason. Furthermore, August contracts experienced a sudden hike of INR34 per kg in just one day. “Authorities have not taken action or inquired into these market movements,” the company added.
- Speculators are expected to raise prices for August and September forward contracts to their target price of INR700 per kg, after which many participants are likely to offload their positions and book profits.
- Currently, buyers are showing a preference for cumin seeds from China and Syria over Indian origin due to substantially increased prices driven by high demand from India, Gulf countries, and Far East nations.

Last week, China prices moved up by more than $600 per metric ton. Most China suppliers for cumin are usually dealing in walnuts and pumpkin seeds, and as cumin is grown in their area and with the pumpkin and walnut season coming to an end, these exporters had the money to invest in supplying cumin to all markets.
“However, the sharp rise in prices has taken them by surprise. Many suppliers have defaulted and returned the advance deposits to buyers,” SpicExim added.

Turkish cumin seed
- In Turkey, cumin seed is grown in different regions, some of which have already completed their harvest, while others will do so in the coming days.
“The total expectation for this year's cumin crop is around 5,000 to 6,000 tons, with approximately 1,000 tons carried over from the previous season. The export market is inactive, and only local spice companies are making purchases for their needs. Wealthier farmers are likely to hold their material for as long as possible, leading to a firm market until November or December,” SpicExim noted.

Jul 25 - Cocoa prices fall amid favorable weather conditions (IHSmarkit)

- Ivory Coast cocoa bean prices down 6% w/w
- Mix of rain and sunshine boosts crop development
- Decline in cocoa grinding also puts pressure on prices

The Ivorian cocoa bean price fell 6% week-on-week to €3,298 per metric ton ($3,688/t) CIF northern Europe last week, and 9% from €3,639/t two weeks ago. The differential was unchanged at €300/t. Weather conditions improved in the last couple weeks in most of Ivory Coast's main cocoa growing regions. Farmers said that a mix of rain and sunshine is helping crop development, easing disease fears ahead of the October-to-March main crop.

Similarly, the Ghanaian cocoa bean price averaged €3,413/t CIF UK las week, down7% from €3,682 in the previous week and 11% less than €3,814 two weeks ago. The differential price was unchanged w/w at €400/t.

The cocoa bean price from Nigeria closed at €3,090/t CIF northern Europe, down 6% w/w from €3,296/t and 10% from €3,428/t two weeks ago. The Nigerian differential price remained at €120/t CIF northern Europe, the same level since December.

The release of cocoa grinding figures for the second quarter of 2023 was also a bearish factor for prices, which moved away from the peak reached in the first week of July. Cocoa processing declined in Europe, North America and Asia compared with the previous year.

In the EU, the cocoa butter price averaged €6,494/t CIF northern Europe last week, down 6.4% from a week ago, while the EU cocoa paste factory price closed at €4,841/t CIF northern Europe, down 6% w/w. The EU powder price fell 3% to at €2,900/t after remaining unchanged at €3,000/t since early June.

Jul 24 - Bumper chili crops in US and Mexico set to secure supply (IHSmarkit)

- Abundant US and Mexican supply after low crops in previous seasons
- High Indian crops secure domestic consumption
- Low paprika productions in China, Peru, Spain and Israel set to raise prices

Favorable weather is driving optimistic chili crop estimates in the US and Mexico, stabilizing prices, according to Olam Spices in its latest market update.

- US red chiles will be harvested in September and the outlook remains favorable. Green chili harvest has started in the second half of July and most players expect also a high crop.
- Mexico’s industry expects an abundant output thanks to favorable rains, after two consecutive seasons with crops below average.
India

Cold warehouses are filled up to 85% of their total capacity and the 2022-23 crop is expected to be bumper, once farmers have sent their reports after concluding the harvest in June. The average quality has been low. OFI expects that prices will be flat for small varieties.
Paprika: China, Peru, Spain and Israel

There are concerns about the impact of heavy snowfalls in Xinjian’s paprika plantations, prices being in a bullish trend.

Low crops in Peru, Spain and Israel might not temper the low Chinese availability, pushing up prices in the long-term.

Jul 24 - Indian coriander seed arrivals have been hefty (IHSmarkit)

- Russian material is helping to top up supplies
- Prices have risen on active buying
- Predicted decline in plantings for next crop

The arrivals of coriander seeds in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh (MP), and Rajasthan have been substantial, with nearly 65% of the crop already in the market, Indian trade sources report.

In its latest report broker SpicExim observed that a significant deal of around 4,000 metric tons of Russian coriander seeds was concluded at approximately $600-615 per metric ton, with the cargo expected to arrive by the end of August. Currently, stockists are active, and prices have recently firmed up by 10 rupees ($0.12) per kg over the last two weeks, the firm added.

SpicExim noted that the market shows a firm tendency with a stable outlook, but it is expected to rise further after mid-August.
“As for the next crop, there are predictions of around 40% less sowing in Gujarat and approximately 30% less sowing in MP and Rajasthan, as farmers may sow more cumin,” the company concluded.

Jul 21 - Cocoa demand declines during the second quarter of 2023 (IHSmarkit)

- Europe’s cocoa bean grindings fall 5.7% y/y
- Changes in processing operations and consumer habits pressure North America cocoa demand
- Asian cocoa grinding down 6.5% y/y

- Cocoa bean grindings showed a general decline in the second quarter of the year, with the exception of Ivory Coast. High prices are starting to impact global demand for cocoa and its semi-finished products. Cocoa futures in London hit a 46-year high in early July amid recent heavy rains that flooded plantations in West Africa.

- Cocoa grind data is a key demand indicator for the cocoa market.

Europe
European cocoa grind reached 343,283 metric tons in the second quarter of 2023, down 5.7% from 364,081 recorded in the same period a year earlier and 8.5% from Q1 2023, according to the Brussels-based European Cocoa Association. The volume of cocoa processed in the first two quarters of the year declined by 2.6% year-on-year to 718,658 metric tons.

North America
In North America, cocoa grinding fell sharply in Q2 to 102,493 metric tons, down 11.6% from 115,899 in the same period a year earlier and 6.5% from the previous quarter, according to the National Confectioners Association (NCA). This brought the total volume since the first quarter of the year to 212,159 metric tons, 8% less year-on-year. Unlike Europe and Asia, the US has been showing a downward trend in cocoa grinding for some time, due to processing operations moving to other regions and changes in consumer habits, according to StoneX.

Asia
Asia’s second quarter 2023 cocoa grind fell 6.5% year-on-year from 228,895 metric tons to 213,977 metric tons, according to the Cocoa Association of Asia. On a quarterly basis, cocoa grindings dropped 3.63% from 222,028 metric tons in the previous quarter. Cumulative cocoa grindings in the first two quarters of 2023 totaled 436,005 metric tons, 1.4% less than in the same period last year.

Ivory Coast
In contrast, Ivorian cocoa grind rose 2.7% year-on-year to 161,063 metric tons in Q2 2023, the exporters' association GEPEX reported. This brought total grind since the first quarter of the year to 350,468 metric tons, up 12.3% compared with the same period last season. Ivory Coast has a total grinding capacity of 712,000 metric tons.

Jul 21 - Initial Indian green cardamom shipments with low average quality (IHSmarkit)

- Robust Indian demand is raising local prices
- Low average yield in India due to scarce precipitations
- Guatemala is expected to have a bumper crop

Indian farmers are starting to ship the new green cardamom crop, which has a low average density due to insufficient precipitations, according to the Indian trader Spicexim in its latest market update. The average yield has been lower than in the previous season, cutting the crop. However, plants remain healthy despite water stress.

There are still high carry-over stocks of large cardamom, driving a bearish trend for the latter and a bullish for small seeds. The Indian demand is maintaining prices around 15% month-month higher in the domestic market.

Meanwhile, the cardamom supply is expected to be bumper, making traders to halt international orders to avoid paying a high price to cover the demand during the Ramadan festival in the Middle East.

Spicexim recommends having one-month stock to cover consumption and wait for December-January to launch ambitious orders.

Jul 21 - Vietnam coffee market quiet; Indonesian premium edges lower (Reuters)

- Coffee trading activities in Vietnam remained tepid at the end of the crop season due to a shortage of beans, while Indonesian September premium edged down slightly, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans at 64,800 dong to 65,600 dong ($2.74 to $2.78) per kilogramme, slightly wider from last week's 64,800 dong to 65,000 dong range.

September robusta coffee settled up $72, at $2,604, as of Wednesday’s close, the highest level in the past ten days, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.
“The current price range of 64,000-66,000 dong per kg has fully reflected the shortage of beans this crop season. Domestic prices in the near future will mostly move around this range,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.
“Domestic roasters are complaining that the prices are too high for them. Almost no deals were struck in the past months.”

- Another trader said at the moment even foreign exporters were holding very few to no beans while domestic ones had run out of beans for months.
“Coffee exports until the end of this crop season (until October) are forecasted to fall sharply due to empty inventories,” the second trader said.

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta Cat a range of $140 to $172 premium per metric ton to the September contract.

- Sumatra Robusta coffee bean was offered at $530 premium for September contract this week, down from $550 last week, “due to the increase in terminal price”, a trader said. Another trader said the price for August contract was offered at $560 premium, the same as last week. ($1 = 23,630 dong)

Jul 20 - Indonesian processors at the core of clove price trends (IHSmarkit)

- Indonesian processors importing African cloves through Singaporean traders
- Concerns about high inventories in Singapore and Africa
- Rumors about an only trader having acquired all Zanzibar’s crop

Indonesian prices are following speculative trends with international prices ranging from $9,500-10,500/metric ton FOB, with Singaporean traders and Indonesian processors (cigarettes and oil manufacturers, mainly) driving the pace, trading sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Traditionally, Indonesian processors purchased around 80-90% of the local crop, exporters stocking around 10-20%. This trend worked fine when the local crop ranged from 120,000-140,000 metric tons, Indonesians exporting to India, where consumption exceeded the domestic crop between 20,000-23,000 metric tons (crop ranging from 1,000-2,000 metric tons). Other minor origins such as Madagascar, Zanzibar and Comoros played a complementary role.

However, the Indonesian crop was around 100,000 metric tons in 2023 due to unfavorable weather, forcing processors to secure supply acquiring productions from African origins through Singaporean traders. As a result, “An only Singaporean trader might have acquired all Zanzibar’s crop (around 10,000 metric tons, but with low quality) and a high proportion of the Madagascan. That means the UAE and Indian traders, focused on suppling India, have been struggling to find available product, raising prices.”

“Madagascan prices have moved from around 33,000-36,000/kg Madagascan ariary ($7.31-8.0/kg) to around MGA38,000-40,000/kg ($8.4-8.9/kg) between 15 June-15 July,” one source said.

The Dubai-located trader Girish Kumar forecasts a sharp fall in prices from September-November due to carry-over stocks in African origins. “A small bunch of traders are trying to control prices although they do not have so much cash, and prices might fall to $7,000-8,000/metric ton.”

The director of ingredients of the French processor Touton, Enmanuel Nee, told S&P Global Commodity Insights that aggressive purchases led by Singaporean traders, particularly in Zanzibar, might drive a long-term speculative trend. However, “a disappointing harvest in Madagascar might change this scenario,” Nee concluded.

Jul 20 - Turkish hazelnut industry forecasts a falling crop (IHSmarkit)

- 5.4% y/y fall in production projected
- Main origins: Ordu and Samsun, both in Northeast
- 14% y/y fall in exports

The Turkish government projects a 2023 hazelnut crop of 717,931 metric tons, 5.4% less year-on-year and down from 810,000 metric tons projected by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC).

The main origins might be Ordu and Samsun, both in Northeast, with around 198,000 metric tons and 124,464 metric tons, respectively.

Hazelnut exports reached 262,173 metric tons value at $1.6 billion in September 2022-June 2023, 14% less y/y in volume and 13% less in value.

The government explained that heavy rains in early July have damaged trees in the Black Sea region, cutting average yield.

Jul 18 - Cocoa growing conditions continue to improve in Ivory Coast (IHSmarkit)

- Cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports rise 50% y/y
- Mix of rains and sunshine boosts cocoa fields
- Farmers expect a lot of cocoa in September

Cumulative cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast’s ports were still below last year’s volume, exporters estimated this week. Arrivals reached 2.259 million metric tons, down 4% from 2.353 million in the same period last season, a small difference from the -4.3% recorded seven days earlier.

In contrast, the world’s top cocoa producer saw a sharp increase in weekly arrivals compared to last year. Coco arrivals between 10 and 16 July totaled 21,000 metric tons, up 50% year-on-year from 14,000 metric tons. Around 8,000 metric tons of beans were delivered to Abidjan port and 13,000 metric tons to San Pedro.

Local farmers reported that a mix of rains and sunshine in most of cocoa growing regions last week formed ideal conditions for flowers and small pods to grow ahead of the October-to-March main crop.

In addition, many producers said they were using chemicals to prevent disease and boost yields, according to Reuters. They expect a good amount of cocoa in September but will need more sun during the coming weeks. Farmers said that the main crop could begin before October if the weather remains sunny.

Jul 18 - Abundant Vietnamese supply drives a bearish trend for cassia (IHSmarkit)

- Main importers: China and India
- Sharp y/y fall in Indonesian and Vietnamese prices
- Vietnam’s summer crop expected to be lower than in 2022

Vietnam has had a bumper spring cassia crop, mirroring the previous season. As a result, the current supply secures consumption and drives a bearish trend. Vietnam’s summer harvest is projected to be smaller than in 2022, farmers and exporters expecting to start a bullish trend.

Meanwhile, Indonesian exporters and processors have still high stocks with prices stabilized. Indian and Chinese purchasers have been determinant in the Vietnamese industry. On the other hand, EU and US importers have been launching small orders.

Indonesian cassia Corintji A sticks were quoted at $3,800/metric tonne CIF this June, stagnant month-on-month and 27% less year-on-year, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Indonesian cassia Vera A averaged $4,000/metric ton CIF in June, unchanged from May and 31% less y/y.

Trading sources quoted that Vietnamese cassia fell by 6.7% m/m and by 8% y/y to $3,490/metric ton FOB in June.

Jul 18 - Sri Lankan desiccated coconut exports closed H1 behind the previous season (IHSmarkit)

- 26% y/y fall in exports
- 10% y/y fall in fresh coconut prices
- 8% m/m increase in international prices

Sri Lanka’s desiccated coconut exports fell by 26% year-on-year in volume to 15,445 metric tons and by 40% in value to $30.7 million in H1 2023.

The main importers were India, Iraq and the UAE, which accounted for 17%, 10% and 8%, respectively, of the volume.
The fresh price averaged 62.9 Sri Lankan rupees ($0.19) per coconut in coconut auctions held on 22 June, 10% less month-on-month and 36% more y/y. 

Wholesale desiccated coconut prices ranged from SLR470-480 /kg for fine, stagnant m/m, and from SLR520-530/kg for medium, 6% less m/m, according to the Sri Lankan Coconut Development Authority.

International prices averaged $1,705/metric ton FOB, 8% more m/m and 3% less y/y, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Jul 17 - Arabica coffee prices continue to fall (IHSmarkit)

- Brazilian coffee harvest pressures arabica coffee prices
- Colombia’s coffee production increases year-on-year in June
- Robusta coffee prices rise amid tight supplies

The ICO Brazilian Naturals group indicator continued to fall last week averaging $1.59 per pound, down 0.7% from the previous week and the lowest since 2021. The good progress of the 2023-24 harvest was the main bearish factor for prices. The areas where Cooxupe, the world's largest coffee cooperative and Brazil’s biggest coffee exporter, operates has reached 42.7% of the fields by 7 July, up 9.4% from the same period last year.

The index for Brazilian arabica coffee closed at $2.81 per kilogram EXW, 0.6% lower than the previous week, while Brazilian robusta coffee rose by 2.1% to $2.27/kg EXW. Brazil’s robusta output is expected to be smaller than initially expected. In addition, Brazilian roasters are likely to change blends in the 2023-24 season, using more arabica and less robusta, due to the relatively lower prices for arabica coffee as the harvest progresses quickly.

In Colombia, the ICO Colombian Mild Arabicas group indicator ended at $1.88/lb, down 1% from the previous week and 1.5% from two weeks ago. The country produced 956,000 60 kg bags of coffee in June, up marginally from 951,000 in the same month last year, according to the National Federation of Coffee Growers (Fedecafe).

The ICO’s other mild arabicas group indicator fell to $1.93/lb last week, only marginally lower (0.5%) from the previous week and 1.3% lower from two week ago. The positive outlook for arabica coffee production in 2023-24 and the good pace of the Brazilian harvest thanks to dry weather maintained the downward trend.

Meanwhile, the ICO’s other mild robustas group indicator ended at $1.28/lb, up 0.5% from the previous week and 1.8% from two weeks ago. Tight robusta coffee supplies remained a supportive factor for the market.

Jul 14 - Indian mint oil prices hit the rock bottom with demand at lows (IHSmarkit)

- 5-10% y/y fall in the 2022-23 crop projected
- 4% m/m fall in oil prices
- Bearish trend projected in 2024

Indian mint oil price averaged around $1,040/metric ton, 4% less month-on-month and 9% less year-on-year due to the combination of bumper supply and weak global demand, according to the Indian processor Mane Kancor in its latest market update.

India’s 2022-23 mint production is projected at around 33,500-31,500 metric tons, 5-10% less y/y, on 346,000 hectares. Climatic conditions have favored a high oil yield. As a result, the mint oil production is expected to fall by 5% y/y.

Indian farmers have cut the crop and planted acreage due to the long-term bearish trend. However, Mane Kancor expects a bullish trend in 2024 as the supply is set to fall in H2 2023.

Jul 13 - Bumper hazelnut crops in northern hemisphere secure consumption (IHSmarkit)

- Turkish carry-over stocks projected at 200,00 metric tons
- 15% y/y fall in exports
- TMO’s price: $2.6/kg

Hazelnut productions in Turkey, Italy and Oregon are looking good, with Turkey keeping 200,000 metric tons of carry-over stocks and securing the global consumption in Q3, according to Olam Nuts in its latest market overview.

Prices for Turkish hazelnuts are growing after the TMO announced sales at 68 liras per kg ($2.6/kg), farmers not willing to sale below this level. However, the fall in the lira exchange value to TRY26 per US dollar is offsetting this increase. Meanwhile, the US hazelnuts are quoted below $5/kg.

The European demand for hazelnuts is growing despite the German recession. Turkish seasonal exports reached 254,000 metric tons in the third week of June, 15% less year-on-year. However, large carry-over stocks might trigger a bearish trend and raise exports.

Jul 11 - Bumper vanilla supply triggers concerns about crashing prices (IHSmarkit)

- Global supply estimated at 4,000-5,000 metric tons
- Madagascan prices might hit the rock bottom in October-November 2023
- Indonesian farmers selling green beans

- The international vanilla industry is worried about long-term crushing prices as supply might have reached a record between 4,000-5,000 metric tons against a demand projected at around 2,500-3,000 metric tons, trading sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights. US and EU stocks have also completely replenished as processors launched aggressive bids during the Covid-19 pandemic and in 2022 due to the uncertain outlook.

- Madagascar is leading this bumper supply. Exports reached around 3,000 metric tons in the 2021-22 season. Madagascan government decreed protectionist measures about prices to shake the market. However, purchasers have been following a “wait and see” attitude. Meanwhile, farmers have seen as their yields and stocks, estimated at around 1,500 metric tons, have been growing. The government authorized to start the commercial season in Ambanja (North West), a minor origin, on 25 May, to sell green vanilla, monitoring results. Weak sales have made commercial seasons in Sava and Analanjirofo (North East), which account for 80-90% of the output, have not been authorized yet. Madagascar’s minimum export prices is still at $250/kg although farmers are pressing to flexibilize this quotation, combining to cover production costs and to raise sales.

- The Dutch processor De Monchy has explained that the atmosphere is tense. Many exporters remember the sharp fall in prices in the 2003-2004, when prices hit the rock bottom, plummeting to $20/kg, after reaching a record of $500/kg. However, de Monchy rules out this scenario due to:
- High production costs due to inflation in previous seasons and the gradual fall in value of local exchange currency against US dollar, pushing up prices for inputs such as fertilizers.
- Protectionist attitude of the Madagascan government which is aiming to avoid social riots in the rural areas.
- Tight EU regulations about nicotine minimum residue limits (MRLs) for spice products. The EU regulation 2023/377 (coming into force in September 2023) sets the nicotine MRL to 0.02 mg/kg (down from 0.3 mg/kg in the currently applicable regulation. That means an important percentage of the stored vanilla might not be purchased by European processors.
- Sustainability policies and trends. Processors are being forced by retailers to follow sustainability policies and speculative prices for vanilla might trigger negative news for them and spread social campaigns to revert prices, damaging their reputational image.

- The head of ingredients of the French spice processor Touton, Emmanuel Nee, has told S&P Global Commodity Insights: “Prices might hit the rock bottom in October-November. In the meantime, importers will launch only small orders, raisin pressure on exporters.”

Indonesia and Papua New Guinea
- Indonesia and Papua New Guinea expanded their productions since the 2015-16 season, due to rising prices. Currently, both origins might total a production of around 600 metric tons. However, many farmers are not fulfilling their local quality rules and are selling unmatured beans. Many farmers expect a bullish cycle and are keeping long-term stocks. However, most them need to obtain revenues and prices might continue to fall.

- Uganda might reach a record crop of around 300 metric tons, with the potential of doubling this volume thanks to young plants. The government fueled plantations with generous subsidies in previous seasons. However, there are rumors of farmers uprooting plants as prices have fallen by four times from 2021-23.
“If concerns about a record-low price for Madagascan vanilla becomes a reality, purchaser will be reluctant to import Ugandan product,” Emmanuel Nee of Touton explained.

Jul 11 - Turkish sultana prices stabilized despite hailstorms (IHSmarkit)

- 1% y/y fall in Turkish seasonal exports
- The UK and the Netherlands leading purchase of Turkish dried grapes
- 24% y/y fall in seasonal Californian conventional exports

- Turkish sultana prices are stabilized despite the last hailstorm in Manisa. Farmers expected a price increase but the fall in lira exchange value against US dollar and lack of offers of the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has drawn a different scenario, trading sources told to S&P Global Commodity Insights. In addition, grapes have been hit by pests and organic producers have been forced to use pesticides. That means the conventional supply will be higher than initial expectations.

- Turkish sultana FOB prices averaged $1,703 per metric ton in the week ending on 8 July, stagnant month-on-month and 6% more year-on-year.

- Turkey’s xports reached 5,772 metric tons, 47% more year-on-year, valued at $7.9 million, 5% less y/y in the week ending on 8 July. Seasonal exports totaled 220,455 metric tons (-1% y/y), worth $373.8 million (-4% y/y). The main seasonal importers were the UK, the Netherlands and Germany with 54,766 metric tons (s-3% y/y), 27,166 metric tons (+34% y/y) and 26,944 metric tons (-13% y/y).

California
- California’s raisin industry is not willing to cut prices, and exports are clearly behind the previous seasons when the next season is around the corner (August-June). California’s raisin shipments were 15,297 short tons this June, 10% less year-on-year, bringing seasonal (August 2022-June 2023) sales to 177,410 short tons, 15% less y/y. Domestic sales (excluding Canada) fell by 3% y/y to 10,762 short tons this June, bringing seasonal data to 120,920 short tons, 14% less y/y.

- Meanwhile, exports (including Canada) fell by 17% y/y to 4,267 short tons in June 2023, bringing seasonal global sales to 46,710 short tons, 24% less y/y. The main importers were Japan and Canada with 1,337 short tons (-17% y/y) and 537 short tons (-23% y/y), respectively, in May 2023. Packed organic shipments fell by 25% y/y to 1,293 short tons in June, bringing seasonal sales to 14,372 short tons (-19% y/y). Domestic sales accounted for 94%.

- Californian Thompson seedless have been stabilized at £2,650/metric ton ($3,393/t) exw UK since September, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Meanwhile, South African Thompson raisin prices have been gradually growing, averaging £1,985/metric ton EXW UK in June, 2% more m/m and 5% up from March.
Outlook

- Turkey is close to harvesting vineyards. Its production will be essential to drive prices in Q3.

Jul 11 - Australian almond exports in full swing with Spanish processors leading purchases (IHSmarkit)

- 63% y/y increase in seasonal exports
- Seasonal Spanish kernel imports rose by five times
- Spain, China and Turkey accounted for 81% of seasonal exports

- Australia’s almond shipments reached 10,070 metric tons (kernel weight equivalent, KWE), 42% more year-on-year, bringing seasonal (March-April) data to 18,020 metric tons, 47% more y/y, according to the Almond Board of Australia (ABA). Domestic sales fell by 12% y/y to 1,661 metric tons in April 2023 and to 3,672 metric tons in March-April. Exports reached 8,415 metric tons in April 2023, 63% more y/y, bringing seasonal international sales to 14,349 metric tons (+63% y/y).

- In-shell international sales fell by 23% y/y to 2,561 metric tons in March. The main importers were India and China, with 1,455 metric tons (stagnant y/y) and 1,083 metric tons (-42% y/y), respectively. Kernel exports totalled 6,622 metric tons, up from 2,851 metric tons in April 2022. The main importers were Spain (2,293 tons, +521% y/y), Turkey (1,138 metric tons, 432% y/y) and China (1,132 metric tons, -15% y/y).

Jul 11 - Robust Chinese consumption triggers record prices for cumin seeds (IHSmarkit)

- Spot prices has crossed the level of $7,000/metric ton
- 20-21% m/m growth in futures prices for deliveries from June-September 2023
- 21% y/y increase in exports

- Indian cumin seeds resume a bullish trend due to the combination of high Chinese consumption and disappointing supply. Indian cumin seed spot prices averaged 61,150 Indian rupees per quintal ($739.7/quintal) at the Jodhpur market (Rajasthan, Northwest) on 10 July 2023, 26% more month-on-month and up from INR22,325/quintal on 11 July 2022. Indian cumin seed exports reached 83,407 metric tons valued at $311.3 million in January-May 2023, 21% more y/y in volume and 92% more y/y in value, according to customs data.

- China, Bangladesh and the US were the main importers of whole cumin seeds (95% of the exported volume), accounting for 41%, 17% and 4%, respectively, of the volume.

- The updated daily futures market price on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) was:

    Deliveries in June 2023 closed at 52,720 rupees/quintal on 20 June, 18% more m/m
    INR58,300/quintal for deliveries in July 2023 on 7 July, 21% more m/m
 
- These quotations mean prices are in a speculative moment which might halt when Chinese importers replenish their stocks.

Jul 11 - Robusta coffee prices softening (IHSmarkit)

- Brazilian coffee harvest progressing at a good pace
- ICO Colombian Mild Arabicas groups indicator fall to $1.90 per pound
- Robusta coffee prices retreat

Brazil
- The ICO Brazilian Naturals group indicator continued its bearish trend as the 2023-24 harvest is progressing at a good pace. The indicator averaged $1.59 per pound, down 2.5% from $1.64/lb in the previous week and 6.1% from two weeks ago. Brazil's 2023-24 coffee harvest has reached 45% of the total area by 27 June, up 6% from the same period last year but still below the five-year average of 48% for the period, according to the agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercado.
- The index for Brazilian arabica coffee closed at $2.84 per kilogram EXW, 1.6% lower than the previous week, while Brazilian robusta coffee fell by 4.6% to $2.18/kg EXW.

Colombia
- The ICO Colombian Mild Arabicas group indicator ended at $1.90/lb, down 1.8% from the previous week and 6.3% from two weeks ago. The country produced 956,000 60 kg bags of washed arabica coffee in June, up a slight 1% from the same month last year, the national coffee federation reported. However, June exports dropped by 20% y/y to 748,000 bags.

Arabica
- The ICO’s other mild arabicas group indicator fell 2.2% week-on-week to an average of $1.93/lb last week. The overall bearish factor continued to be the positive outlook for its 2023-24 production and the good pace of the Brazilian harvest.

Robusta
- After reaching a record of $1.35/lb, robusta coffee prices started to fall back last week. The ICO’s other mild robustas group indicator fell by 2.2% w/w to $1.26/lb and 6.6% from two weeks ago. Members of the International Coffee Organization exported 4.166 million bags of robusta coffee in May, up 7.7% from 3.869 million bags in the same month a year ago.

Jul 10 - London cocoa futures at highest level in over 40-years (IHSmarkit)

- London cocoa futures gain again to hit a 46-year high
Cocoa futures in London reached a 46-year high of £2,678 per metric ton ($3,412/t) on Tuesday as funds continued to extend their long positions, betting on future price rises, before settling at £2,601/t on Thursday. This was £54 higher than £2,547/t a week ago.

In New York, the cocoa contract for September delivery settled at $3,313 per metric ton on Thursday, down $56 from the previous day but $52 higher than a week ago.

Rainfall eased in most of cocoa growing areas last week after consecutive weeks of above-average rains that flooded plantations. However, more sun is needed to develop the October-to-March main crop.

The International Cocoa Organization expects for the current season a deficit of 142,000 metric tons, but dealers said that there is talk in the market of a much higher deficit of about 200,000 metric tons.

Jul 07 - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit )

- US peanut crop set to increase due to planted area expansion
- The Australian almond industry has launched a promotion campaign to raise exports by 50,000 metric tons
- Fall in whole dried fig prices

Production
- Ukraine’s 2023-24 (September-August) walnut production is projected to reach 106,470 metric tons, slightly down from 107,660 metric tons in the previous season.
- US peanut planted area is estimated at 1.58 million acres in 2023, up 9% from 2022. The area for harvest is estimated at 1.54 million acres in 2023, up 11% from last year. In Georgia, the largest peanut-producing state, planted area is up 11% from 2022.
- China’s 2023-24 (October-September) peanut crop is forecast at 18.3 million metric tons, 9% more year-on-year, as high prices have fueled the growth in the planted area, 
- Australia’s 2023 macadamia production estimate has been downgraded to 53,160 metric tons (3.5% moisture and 57,000 metric tons at 10% moisture), 11% less than the previous estimate. The reduction is based on the combination of unfavorable weather and economic decisions taken by growers with falling prices, due to weak demand and rising global supply.

Demand
-Chinese imports of peanuts are forecast at 1 million metric tons in the 2023-24 season, 26% less y/y due to the high production estimate, with a domestic consumption stabilized at around 18-19 million metric tons annually.

Trade
- Ukraine’s 2023-24 exports are projected to grow by 66% y/y to 80,000 metric tons as exporters are aiming to clear out stocks in low-segment markets.
- Turkey’s dried fig exports reached 149 metric tons in the week ending on 1 July 2023, down from 720 metric tons in the same period in the previous season, bringing seasonal sales (7 October 2022-1 July 2023) to 62,811 metric tons valued at $223.5 million, 5% more y/y in volume but 1% less in value.

Prices
- Turkish dried fig Weekly FOB prices in the week ending on 1 July 2023 were:
    Whole dried figs, $3,364/metric ton, 22% less month-on-month and 21% less y/y
    Mated dried figs, $2,530/metric ton, 46% more m/m and 45% more y/y.

Jul 07 - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit )

- India faces issues with first round of harvesting new crop of green cardamom
- Drought prompts concerns for Spanish paprika crop
- India records decline in guar gum exports

Production
- The first round of plucking for the Indian new crop of green cardamom has failed, resulting in dropped fruits, SpicExim noted in its latest weekly market report. The second round of plucking might start after the middle of July, but exportable qualities will only be available in mid-August.
- Indian mentha oil yield is likely to increase due to favorable weather condition in major producing states.
- Forecast heavy rainfall in Telangana and Maharashtra (India) is expected to boost the ongoing sowing activities for turmeric. However, the production prospects are looking bleak in the wake of falling area under turmeric in both these areas.
- Spanish growers have started the paprika season with concerns about yield due to severe drought, according to the designation of Origin Pimenton de la Vera (Extremadura, Southwest). Extremadura is the largest Spanish origin with around 1,050 planted hectares. The 2022-23 crop reached 4,000 metric tons, estimating a 20-25% fall in the 2023-24 season.

Demand
- Overseas demand for Indian guar gum has dwindled (see Trade below).
- Indian spice traders report demand for Indian coriander seed from the Far East, Middle East, and China. Surprisingly, Bangladesh has entered the market to buy Indian coriander seeds for the first time.
- Indian cumin seed is drawing strong domestic demand, local traders report.
- Meanwhile, Indian turmeric remains popular among overseas buyers with traders citing solid export sales.

Trade
- Indian guar gum exports fell by 32% y/y in volume to 52,075 metric tons and by 32% in value to $104.2 million in January-April 2023. The main importers were the US (14,289 metric tons, -43% y/y); Russia (10,249 metric tons, +33% y/y) and Germany (5,798 metric tons, -48% y/y).

Prices
- India’s guar gum spot price averaged 10,639 Indian rupees per quintal ($119.06/q) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 5 July 2023, 2% less month-on-month and 8% more year-on-year. The combination of heavy stocks of guar seeds and weak exports of gum are expected to keep prices under pressure, according to the Indian consultancy company SMC Global Securities in its latest market update. Guar seed and guar gum futures are bearish due to the fall in oil prices.
- Spot prices of Indian cumin seed as of 5 July were ruling at a premium of 3,000 rupees ($36.47) per quintal at INR56,900/quintal at the Unjha market due to increased buying.
- The Indian turmeric August contract on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) is expected to trade in a range of INR9,700-10,500/quintal.
- NCDEX July coriander seed futures are likely to trade in a range of INR6,550-6,850/quintal, according to SMC Global Securities.

Jul 06 - Asia Coffee-Vietnam domestic prices fall, premiums rise in Indonesia (Reuters)

- Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell this week, tracking a drop in the London market, while premiums rose in Indonesia on limited bean supplies, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans at 64,700 dong to 65,300 dong ($2.73 to $2.75) per kg, down from 65,400 dong to 66,900 dong range a week ago.

September robusta coffee shed $104 in a week, settling at $2,512, as of Wednesday’s close.
“Some are shifting to November and January contracts for lower prices, and are waiting for supplies from Brazil,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.
“Supportive news on Brazilian robusta have helped ease the prices.”

- Coffee exports from Vietnam are estimated to have decreased 2.2% in the first half of 2023 from a year earlier to 1.02 million tonnes, the equivalent of 17 million 60-kg (130-pound) bags, official data showed. Coffee export revenue for Vietnam rose 3% to $2.4 billion in the January-June period.

- In Indonesia, Sumatran robusta coffee beans were offered at $400 to $500 premium this week to the September contract week. The premium was $350 two weeks ago.
“Today’s price rose between 50-150 points due to the smaller amount of beans,” a trader said, adding trade was quiet.
The price for August contract was at $365 to $375 premium, compared with $375 premium two weeks ago, another trader said.

Jun 30 - Asia Coffee-Vietnam market subdued on low stocks; Indonesia muted in holiday trade (Reuters)

- Coffee trading in Vietnam remained sluggish this week as the markets took a hit due to the months-long scarcity of beans, while activities were muted in Indonesia due to a holiday, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans at 65,400 dong to 66,900 dong ($2.77 to $2.84) per kilogramme, compared with 65,000 dong to 67,000 dong a week ago.

September robusta coffee lost $110 in a week, settling at $2,616, as of Wednesday’s close.
“Price fell slightly after supportive news about Brazilian robusta supplies,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.
“However, it (price) remained high and no export deals were struck in the past weeks, just some small purchases from local roasters,” the trader added.

- Cherries were growing fine with supportive weather despite concerns over the El NiNo that may hurt crops, another trader said.
- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a range of $167 to $200 premium per metric ton to the September contract, compared with the $$125 to $170 premium a week ago.

- Coffee exports from Vietnam are estimated to have decreased 2.2% in the first half of 2023 to 1.02 million per ton from a year earlier, the equivalent of 17 million 60-kg (130-pound) bags, official data showed. Coffee export revenue rose 3% to $2.4 billion in the January-June period.

Jun 29 - Chocolate-making ingredient cocoa hits highest price in 46 years
Cocoa prices surged to the highest in 46 years on the Intercontinental Exchange in London on Wednesday as bad weather in West Africa threatened production prospects for the main suppliers of the primary raw material used to make chocolate. The benchmark September contract for cocoa in London gained more than 2% on Wednesday to 2,590 pounds per metric ton. The session high was the highest price since 1977 at 2,594 pounds.

Jun 28 - Brazil sugar production meets market expectations in early June
Brazil's center-south sugar production came in roughly in line with market estimates in the first half of June, data from industry group Unica showed on Tuesday, decelerating from the previous fortnight as rains thatdrove a jump in yields now hamper crush operations. Sugar production in the period totaled 2.55 million metric tons, Unica said in a report, up 18.7% from a year earlier and meeting analyst consensus in a survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Jun 27 - Ivory Coast’s cashew exports continue at a strong pace (IHSmarkit)

- 32% y/y growth in in-shell exports
- Vietnam accounted for 77% of raw volume
- 37% y/y increase in kernel exports

Ivorian cashew in-shell and kernel exports continued to grow in January-May 2023, revealing that the market is accelerating processing.

Raw cashew nut (RCN) exports rose by 32% year-on-year in volume to 389,580 metric tons and by 53% in value to $736.8 million. Vietnam and India were the main importers, accounting for 77% and 23%, respectively, of the volume.

Meanwhile, processed cashew international sales rose by 37% y/y in volume to 15,850 metric tons, worth $72.8 million, 31% more y/y. The main importers were the US, Turkey and the Netherlands, taking 16%, 12% and 12%, respectively.

This data reveals that the international processing market is in full swing, with Indian and Vietnamese manufacturers replenishing their raw inventories. Local processors are resuming sales after slowed sales in Q1. In addition, it confirms the rumors of an Ivorian crop higher than the initial estimate, flooding markets and pressing prices down.

Jun 27 - Bullish garlic, turmeric and ginger prices in Bangladesh (IHSmarkit)

- Drivers of bullish trend: garlic, turmeric and ginger
- Key factors: weak domestic exchange currency, disappointing domestic crops and international supply shortage
- Eid-Ul-Adha festival: 28-30 June

Bangladeshi retail prices for ginger and chili are keeping a strong bullish trend for turmeric and garlic, due to high prices in India and China, their main suppliers, according to data from the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB).

The combination of weak domestic crop and international supply, inflation and falling exchange value of the taka currency against US dollar are pushing up prices at a record pace. In addition, the Eid-Ul-Adha festival (28-30 June) has triggered a sharp increase in demand for spices temporarily.

Bangladesh is one of the largest consumers of spices in south Asia, importing from China, India and Burma as its domestic crops cannot cover its demand.

TCB listed the following average prices on 26 June 2023:

- Garlic, 120-180 Bangladeshi takas per kilo ($1.09-1.8/kg), 13-17% more month-on-month and 13% more year-on-year
- Turmeric, BDT200-300/kg, 7% more m/m and 10-21% more y/y
- Dry chili, BDT400-450/kg, stagnant m/m and up from BDT110-220/kg in the same period in 2022
- Ginger, BDT250-400/kg, 14% more m/m and up from BDT60-140 more in the same period in 2022

Jun 27 - Arabica coffee prices ease further, while robusta maintains an upward trend (IHSmarkit)

- Brazilian harvest progress pressures arabica coffee prices
- Colombia’s coffee prices fall despite lower production
- Robusta coffee prices increase on negative outlook for 2023-24

Brazil
- The ICO Brazilian Naturals group indicator fell further last week to an average of $1.72 per pound, down 5% from $1.81/lb in the previous week and 7.2% from two weeks ago. The indicator fell to the lowest level since January ($1.69/lb). A forecast for favorable weather eased frost fears and allowed farmers to continue the harvesting. In addition, the largest coffee cooperative and exporter Cooxupé reported last week that the 2023-24 harvest has progressed at a good pace and ahead of the two previous years

The index for Brazilian arabica coffee closed at $3.13 per kilogram EXW, 5% lower than the previous week, while Brazilian robusta coffee eased by 0.8% w/w to $2.49/kg EXW.

Colombia
- The spot coffee price in Colombia also retreated in the last couple weeks with the ICO Colombian Mild Arabicas group indicator reaching $2.07/lb, down 5.1% from the previous week and 7.5% from two weeks ago. Prices ended lower despite the 20.7% drop year-on-year in the country's coffee production to 806,000 60 kg bags in May, according to the National Federation of Coffee Growers.

Arabica
- The ICO’s other mild arabicas group indicator fell 0.2% week-on-week to an average of $2.06/lb last week. The overall bearish factor continued to be the positive outlook for its 2023-24 production and the good pace of the Brazilian harvest.

Robusta
In contrast to arabica, robusta coffee prices continued its bullish trend with the ICO’s other mild robustas group indicator rising by 0.3% w/w to $1.35/lb and 2.6% from two weeks ago. The USDA expects Brazilian robusta output to drop by over one million bags to 21.7 million in 2023-24 due to lower yields.

Jun 26 - Vietnam maintains high level of raw cashew nut imports (IHSmarkit)

- May volumes increased 43.9%
- Imports from Ivory Coast up by a massive 126.7%
- Cashew kernel prices continue to fall

Vietnam’s imports of raw cashew nuts (RCN) increased 43.9% this May to 273,943 metric tons.
This brought Vietnam’s RCN imports for the first five months of 2023 to 1,099,275 metric tons – a rise of 13.6%.

Its RCN imports from Ivory Coast surged ahead by 126.7% to 104,916 metric tons, bringing its January-May total from this origin to 164,862 metric tons.

Vietnam’s RCN imports from Cambodia declined 5.13% this May to 64,492 metric tons and by 4.65% over the first five months of this year to 547,627 metric tons.

Its RCN imports from other markets increased 37.53% last month to 104,535 metric tons while its January-May RCN imports were 37.58% higher year-on-year at 386,787 metric tons.

Ho Chi Minh City-based supplier Golden Bridge noted that despite the large volume of RCN imports by Vietnam this May it heard that many factories refused to make deliveries and accepted the loss of a 10% deposit. Prices of cashew shells fell sharply to 1,560 Vietnamese dong ($0.06) per kilogram and one of the main reasons for this was that prices of the cashew kernels are too low.

Golden Bridge also observed that the market last week continued to recognise good transactions at low prices. In particular, deals for WW320s at $2.35-2.38 per pound FOB and WW240S at $2.55-2.58/lb FOB were confirmed quickly.
“In the local market, many small processing units have stopped operating because of losses, so possibly low prices of kernels are ending,” Golden Bridge added.

Meanwhile, Dutch edible nuts broker Global Trading & Agency noted that an important ongoing discussion is over the disparity between RCN prices and kernel prices.
“Prices for kernel continue to drop and have reached levels around $2.40-2.50 per lb FOB depending on the type of packer. These prices are incredibly low and mainly caused by lack of cash and as such pressure to do some sales. Prices for RCN consequently are also under pressure and with plenty of RCN product around this is not expected to change in the short term. The risk of defaults is in a market situation like this also rising. Something to watch carefully,” the company added.

Global Trading finds that on the kernel side buyers are feeling quite comfortable.
“Prices are still under pressure and with the typically quiet summer period coming there is no real rush to cover too much now as the expectation of prices to move up dramatically in the short term is rather small. At the same time these prices are at very attractive levels at the moment and with limited downward potential possibly worth looking at during the quiet summer period,” the firm concluded.

Jun  26 - Indian fennel seed prices edging towards historic highs (IHSmarkit)

- Fennel seed prices expected to continue increasing
- Speculators making their moves in cumin seed market
- First half Vietnam pepper exports on track to be sharply higher

Indian fennel seed prices are approaching their historic highs due to limited remaining crop and the fact that there are nine more months to go until the new crop.

Indian spice broker SpicExim said it expects a continuing upward trend, with prices reaching $3,000 per metric ton for nearby destinations. The firm observed that in a week, prices have jumped by $450/t, and the market seems to remain firm with a bullish trend. Egypt witnessed a price increase of $200-250/t on Tuesday, causing a frenzy in the market. On Wednesday, there were no offers from Egypt, but some were received on Thursday. Indian buyers remained absent.

With the recent government declaration of a new law, spices being imported by India attract an import duty of more than 30%. Importers can import against an advance license, but re-exports should be done within 90 days (previously 18 months). “This will put a spanner on Indian traders importing other origin spices,” SpicExim said. Currently, China is currently not a buyer for fennel seeds.

Cumin seeds
- The speculators are making their moves, with prices for July/August contracts on the commodity exchange nearing 550 rupees ($6.71) per kg. The August spot cumin rate is at INR600/kg, which is an all -time high. Futures and spot continued to be volatile with a firm bias, even though there was no change in fundamental factors.

Syrian prices also rose in tandem with Indian cumin prices and Syrian farmers and traders are learning from their Indian counterparts. “The parabolic rise of cumin prices this year has been unprecedented and we expect a lot of defaults, quality claims and disputes between buyers and sellers. We hope that participants remain sane and do not contribute to this frenzy,” SpicExim added.

Coriander seeds
- On Monday (19 June), prices for July/August moved up by 2% in the exchange and spot market. Some scattered business was noted for China. Prices continued to rise by 2% on Wednesday, and on Friday, the market firmed by $50/t.

Black pepper
- According to preliminary statistics of the Vietnam Pepper Association, Vietnam exported so far in June 11,305 tons, of which black pepper reached 9,778 tons and white pepper 1,527 tons. China continues to be the main export market with 2,657 tons.
“It is likely that exports in June will reach about 21,000 tons, bringing the total number of pepper exports in six months of Vietnam to about 152,500 tons (compared with 125,553 tons in the same period last year). Thus, exports increased by about 27,000 tons over the same period last year, corresponding to an increase of 20%,” SpicExim predicted.

In the northern region of Brazil (Belem) the crop is expected to be a normal one of around 30,000 metric tons due to good weather. In the southeast region (Vitoria/Espirto Santo), where there are two harvesting periods, there is a lower estimate of the new crop due to heavy rains that occurred during the end 2022 and beginning of 2023.

Jun 26 - Gradual recovery in Indian turmeric prices (IHSmarkit)

- 11% m/m increase in (unpolished) spot prices
- 30% y/y increase in exports
- 6-19% y/y growth in futures prices for deliveries from June-October

The Indian spot fob unpolished turmeric price averaged 7,828 Indian rupees/quintal ($95.5/q) at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, south central) on 23 June 2023, 11% more month-on-month and 3% more year-on-year. The polished product price averaged INR8,259/quintal, 11% more m/m and 2% more y/y.

The Indian industry started the season with huge carry-over stocks of 170,000 metric tons and the slight recovery in prices might reveal that they are cleared out and traders are starting to ship the new crop. The crop has been disappointing and international demand is robust currently.

India’s global sales reached 65,690 metric tons, 30% more/y, worth $73.3 million (+2% y/y), in January-April 2023. The main importers were Bangladesh, Morocco and the UAE, taking 25%, 10% and 8%, respectively, of the volume.

The updated daily futures market prices on NCDEX were:
    Deliveries in June 2023 closed at INR8,812 per quintal on 20 June, 11% more m/m
    INR9,316/quintal for deliveries in August 2023 on 23 June, 10% more m/m
    INR9,316/quintal for deliveries in October 2023 on 23 June, 6% more m/m
    INR8,702/quintal for deliveries in December 2023 on 23 June, 19% more than on 1 June

Jun 22 - Colombia’s coffee production down on continuous rainfall (IHSmarkit)

- Coffee output falls 21% y/y in May
- Cumulative production reaches the lowest level since 2012-13
- Colombian coffee inventories drop 6% y/y

Colombian coffee production reached 806,000 60 kg bags in May, down 20.7% from 1.017 million bags produced in the same month last year, according to the National Federation of Coffee Growers (Fedecafe). This brought total coffee production in the first eight months of 2022-23 (October-September) to 6.994 million bags, down 13% year-on-year from 8.005 million in 2021-22 and the lowest for this period since 2012-13.

This fall was attributed to the continuous rainfall that has been impacting the country’s coffee growing regions since the beginning of the season.

At the end of May, Colombian coffee stocks decreased by 5.9% month-on-month to 1.12 million bags, 13.2% higher than the same month last year but the lowest volume since October 2022, Fedecafe reported.

Domestic consumption was estimated at 172,000 bags, down 5% from the same month a year ago. Cumulative consumption since the start of the season stood at 1.476 million bags.

Jun 21 - Sharp increase in small Indian cardamom prices due to concerns about disappointing crop (IHSmarkit)

- 54% y/y fall in exports
- 67% m/m increase in prices for small cardamom
- Concerns about severe drought undermining production forecast

Prices for Indian large cardamom are booming despite weak exports.
India’s cardamom exports fell by 54% year-on-year in volume to 2,423 metric tons and by 56% y/y in value to $32.8 million in January-April 2023.

The main importers were the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, which accounted for 33%, 19% and 9% of the volume.

India started 2023 with weak exports, with traders waiting for price growth during the campaign to cover the demand during the Ramadan festival. However, this expected bullish trend never took place due to the bumper Guatemalan supply.
June prices

The price for small cardamom averaged 1,730 Indian rupees per kg ($21.08/kg) in the official auction on 21 June, 67% more month-on-month and up from INR830/kg on 21 June 2022. Large cardamoms were quoted at INR523/kg on 15 June, 19% more m/m and 23% more y/y.

Analysis
Severe drought might damage the Indian crop, harvesting of which will take place in July with traders having cleared out stocks. The Indian government forecast a bumper crop of around 33,530 metric tons although this output might be downgraded if rains do not start. These concerns are fueling prices although they might fall if rainfalls recover. Large cardamom prices are not increasing as much as those for small cardamom due to a bumper crop in Nepal.

Jun 21 - Indian cumin seed futures underpinned by tight supply (IHSmarkit)

- Further gains expected in July cumin seed prices
- Increased buying pushes coriander seed prices higher
- However, large physical supply will limit rises in coriander seed

July cumin seed (jeera) futures on India’s National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) are expected to remain higher on tight supply.

In its daily agri commodity report of 21 June SMC Global Securities Ltd noted: “Limited availability of premium quality of produce in the market will help prices to remain firm. Robust export demand and tighter inventory with millers is prompting them to buy jeera at every dip.”

India exported about 16,280 metric tons of cumin seed this April against 9,940 metric tons in the same month of 2022. SMC Global Securities stated that in view of the improved buying in the spot market, cumin seed July prices are likely to move up further towards 55,600 rupees ($677.68) per quintal with support of INR48,600/quintal.

Coriander seed
- SMC Global Securities predicted that coriander seed (dhaniya) July prices on the NCDEX are likely to trade on a positive bias due to increased buying at prevailing levels.
- Reports of rising exports affected market sentiments positively. About 10,680 metric tons of coriander seed was exported in April 2023 compared with 3,160 metric tons of the previous year.
- However, SMC Global Securities believes that gains in Indian coriander seed are looking limited due to huge supply at the physical market. It suggested that coriander seed July futures on the NCDEX are likely to trade in the range of INR6,200-6,550/quintal.

Turmeric
- Turmeric prices traded on a mixed note as after climbing to the 13th month high of INR9500 during the first half. Prices eased on profit booking but remained higher by the end of the day.
“Bullish momentum in turmeric is likely to continue due to supply concerns. Millers are struggling to get fair quality of produce as quality of major part of arrivals, which touched the market, is not up to the mark,” SMC Global Securities stated.
- The quality of India’s turmeric crop deteriorated due to a long spell of unseasonal rainfall in major producing states. More than 60% of arrivals has touched the market and the pace of supply is likely to be slower in the coming weeks, SMC Global Securities noted. “Slower monsoon progress in Maharashtra and shrinking arrivals will keep prices elevated in the near term,” it added.
- The company expects turmeric August prices to trade in a range of INR9,000-9,600/quintal.

Guar seed and guar gum
- Guar seed July futures is likely to trade sideways and might track sowing progress in Gujarat, SMC Global Securities suggested.
- About 135 hectares was sown under guar in Gujarat as on 19 June compared with 92 ha of the previous year. Sowing activities is yet to pick up but overall area is likely to be down due to lower realization on guar that will lead to a shift in area of guar to other profitable crops.
- Guar seed prices will trade in the range of INR5,150-5,400/quintal in the near term while guar gum prices are likely to trade in the range of INR9,800-10,500/quintal.

Mentha oil
- The mentha oil June contract is likely to trade on sideways to higher due to adverse weather in major growing states which will affect the yield adversely. Above normal temperature in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh has affected the crop progress adversely.
- Mentha oil prices are likely to trade in the range of INR890-925.

Jun 20 - Sharp fall in Sri Lankan pepper exports with Indian processing at lows (IHSmarkit)

- Indian imports fell by 38% y/y
- Sri Lankan exports dropped by 40% y/y
- Emerging role of the UAE as a re-exporter to India

- Sri Lankan pepper exports fell by 40% year-on-year to 2,756 metric tons, worth $17.9 million (-41% y/y), in January-April 2023. India is the main purchaser (86% of the total volume), playing a role similar to Vietnam with Cambodia. Another minor importer was Germany, accounting for 4% of the total volume.
- Indian pepper exports and imports are at lows as Indian processors are waiting for the 2022-23 pepper harvest conclusion due to falling prices, slowing Indian and Sri Lankan exports.

India’s exports reached 4,570 metric tons value at $24.3 million in January-April 2023, 38% less year-on-year in volume and 33% less y/y in value. Crushed and ground pepper took 51% of the volume.

The main importers of whole product were the UAE, Germany and the US, accounting for 15%, 13% and 11%, respectively. Meanwhile, the main importers of crushed and ground product were the US, the UK and Australia, taking 54%, 9% and 7%, respectively.

Indian imports totaled 8,745 metric tons in January-April 2023 (whole product, 99% of the total), 51% less y/y. The main suppliers were Sri Lanka, Vietnam and the UAE, accounting for 29%, 26% and 19%, respectively, of the total. This data might reveal the UAE is playing a key role as a re-exporter of Vietnamese pepper due to restrictions on this origin, mirroring the role of Vietnam in Chinese nut imports.

Jun 16 - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- Sharp decrease expected in China’s garlic crop
- Cyclone damage to African birds eye chili crops
- Argentine honey prices dragged down by slow demand

Production
- Sources in China have predicted that the yields from the country’s 2023 fresh garlic crop (harvesting of which started last month) will be 10-15% lower than that of 2022. The combination of this and a reduction in plantings is expected to result in a decrease in production of up to 25%. It is suggested that this will also result in a reduced volume of dried garlic.
- African birds eye chili volumes have been affected in southern areas of Malawi, Mozambique and Tanzania as cyclone Freddy did considerable damage to crops.
- Argentina and Brazil had a disappointing start to their honey crops this year.

Demand
- Current demand for Nigerian dried ginger is said to be flat to slightly weak.
- Demand for African birds eye chilies is slack, European traders report.
- European demand for honey has failed to pick up as hoped for this year. Traders report that the retail figures are not encouraging after two good years during the pandemic. It is thought that the decline in consumption might be due to consumers having less disposable income and choosing cheaper breakfast spreads than honey.

Trade
- Indian dried ginger exporters are starting to avoid selling to the EU due to the stringent quality requirements, favoring instead sales to North America, South America, the Middle East, North Africa and China.
- There are volumes of birds eye chilies held by traders in Europe and this is a factor in slowing demand so far this year.

Prices
- Chinese dried garlic prices have shown regular gains in recent months for the reasons stated above (see Production). The May monthly average on top grade granules was $4,439/t CFR NW Europe versus $4,400/t CFR this April. The 9 June weekly price update showed $4,700/t CFR NW Europe.
- Nigerian dried ginger of number one grade was being offered at $1,700/t C&F EMP early this year whereas now it is between $1,950 and $2,100/t C&F, depending on the seller.
- African birds eye chili prices have edged upwards in recent weeks despite slack demand. The May 2023 monthly average for African birds eye chili was $4,891 per metric ton CIF NW Europe compared with $4,600/t CIF in April. On 15 June African birds eye chili was listed at $5,500/t CIF NW Europe.
- Argentine 50 mm grade honey this May averaged $3,013/t CIF NW Europe from $3,213/t CIF previously and in the week to 9 June was listed at $2,800/t CIF NW Europe.

Jun 16 - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- US prune growers report good sizes on fruit set
- US almond shipments declined this May
- Demand picks up for desiccated coconut from Indonesia and the Philippines

Production
- The negative effects of El Nino are increasingly having an impact on coconut crops. Nuts are smaller, which brings a lower yield. This is being reported both out of Indonesia as well as the Philippines. The El Nino weather pattern is expected to occur in July.
- US peanut farmers have made good progress with peanut plantings which have now reached 93% completed on average as of 11 June, on par with the same date last year.
- California experienced favorable weather during prune bloom and growers are observing good sizes on fruit set. While production looks promising, supplies are expected to be tight again this season with an estimated 75,000 short tons (68,000 metric tons) in volume for the 2023 prune crop year

Demand
- The demand from China for in-shell macadamia nuts has been very strong, European traders and brokers report.
- US almond shipments on both the domestic and export side declined last month (see Trade below), indicating a slow down in demand after earlier surges in buying.
- Consumer demand on cashews is viewed as uncertain and this is deterring processors from purchasing far forward despite falling prices of raw cashew nuts in West Africa.
- After a period of slow demand for desiccated coconut, Indonesia and the Philippines are experiencing a resurgence of buying from various markets, European traders report. Mills in Indonesia are mostly sold out for June positions, with July positions also expected to be sold out soon. Similarly, mills in the Philippines are close to selling out July positions and looking to sell August positions onwards.

Trade
- The 10 th position report for the 2022/23 season from the Almond Board of California (ABC) showed that domestic volumes last month were at 54.93 million lbs against 64.14 million lbs in May 2022 while export shipments this May amounted to 140.73 million lbs compared with 193.4 million lbs in the same month of 2022. These totals brought year-to-date total shipments to 2.19 billion lbs from 2.18 billion lbs a year ago – an increase of just 0.25%.

Prices
- The Turkish Grain Board has announced that it will sell 23,000 metric tons of hazelnuts at a price of 68 Turkish lira ($2.87) per kilo.
- Increased demand and limited supply resulted in price increases for desiccated coconut this May, with Indonesia experiencing an approximate monthly increase of $150-200 per metric ton.
- RCN prices in West Africa are falling as growers/exporters want to move their stock.

Jun 15 - TMO announces high hazelnut selling price (IHSmarkit)

- The announcement has not had a dramatic impact on the market
- Other challenges persist
- New interest rates to be announced next Thursday

The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has announced that it will sell 23,000 metric tons of hazelnuts at a price of 68 Turkish lira ($2.87) per kilo.

Olivier Telvi of UK trader Ronly Gida UK Limited, which represents the Turkish hazelnut processor Ronly Gida, said: “This is a high price, but it has not had a dramatic impact on the market, as the hazelnut market is still facing challenges due to disappointing sales from Q4 2022 until today as well as a large crop in 2022 and an expected large crop in 2023.”

The Turkish Central Bank will announce new interest rates on 22 June. “This will be the next opportunity for the Turkish government to respond to the devaluation of the Turkish lira that has occurred since last week,” Telvi noted.

Jun 14 - Brazilian green coffee exports fall to five-year low in May (IHSmarkit)

- Brazil’s coffee shipments down 20.4% y/y
- Coffee exports during May were the lowest for any month since May 2018
- Monthly shipments expected to increase in coming months

- Brazil exported only 2.119 million 60 kg bags of green coffee in May 2023, down 20.4% from 2.661 million in the same month last year, according to data from the coffee exporters association Cecafé. Exports of arabica coffee decreased to 1.988 million bags from 2.530 million a year ago, while robusta shipments were practically unchanged at 131,689 bags compared with 131,806.  Shipments of roast and ground as well as soluble coffee were up at 329,047 bags from 303,342, which means that Brazil’s total coffee exports during May fell to 2.448 million bags from 2.965 million last year.

- Coffee exports during May were the lowest for any month since May 2018. Cecafé’s president Marcio Ferreira said the delay in Brazil’s coffee harvest and low carryover stocks from past crops resulted in May’s smaller shipments. He added that this season’s coffee harvest at the end of May neared 20% of the total amount forecast for the current season, which is about 10 percentage points below the average of the last five years for the period.

- Ferreira said that monthly shipments should increase in coming months due to the acceleration of the harvest. He said that the coffee belt has not suffered any impacts from the weather so far and the prospects for the new crop are good with importers showing strong interest in Brazilian arabicas. Ferreira recalled that Brazilian coffees have been traded at a premium to "C" coffee futures in New York in the first months of the year which led to a substantial reduction in business. With the arrival of the new crop, however, the differentials have been adjusting to historical levels and this will lead to higher exports compared to the first five months of the year.

- Yet, Ferreira pointed out that Brazilian robusta has been reaching price differentials close to those of Vietnam, which could heat up the international market for the variety. Ferreira said that Brazil’s robusta shipments should accelerate from June.

Jun 13 - Cocoa plantations in Ivory Coast flood and prices hit fresh highs ( IHSmarkit )

- Cocoa futures in New York climb to the highest level in nearly seven years
- Ivorian plantations flood after two consecutive weeks of heavy rains
- Cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast’s ports down 4.4% y/y

The rise in cocoa prices continued to be driven by tight supplies with a substantial global deficit expected for the current 2022-23 season. In addition, Ivorian cocoa farmers reported on Monday that some plantations in lowlands flooded last week, raising concerns over the quality of the April-to-September mid-crop.

The September cocoa contract in London hit a fresh six-and-a-half year high of £2,431 per metric ton ($3,041/t) on Friday before closing at £2,426. In New York, cocoa futures rose to $3,175/t, after rising to the highest price in almost seven years at $3,178/t.

After two consecutive weeks of heavy rains, some cocoa growing regions in Ivory Coast flooded, making it difficult to access the plantations and get beans out of the bush. Local farmers feared buyers would refuse to purchase beans in the coming weeks as it will be difficult to dry them properly with the current weather condition.

Reinforcing the shortage of cocoa supply, arrivals of cocoa beans at Ivorian ports are still behind last year’s pace. The volume reached 2.136 million metric tons by 11 June since the start of the season in October, down 4.4% from the same period a year ago. However, the difference year-on-year continues to lessen as the crop progresses.

Jun 12 - Cashew kernel prices oblivious to flat demand (IHSmarkit )

- Processors hesitant about covering too far ahead
- Keeping stocks has become more expensive
- Spot demand is sold at premiums

European nut traders and brokers observed that cashew kernel prices still declined in the last week or so despite relatively stable demand.

Dutch broker Global Trading & Agency noted that this is one of the factors making for an interesting cashew market. The company posed the question of how much further cashew kernel prices can fall.

It observed that raw cashew nut (RCN) prices in West Africa are coming down as growers/exporters want to move their stock but processors remain a little reluctant to buy far forward as consumer demand remains a question. “Will it pick up in the second half of the year or will it stabilize? Importers and roasters are not speculating on it as keeping stocks becomes more expensive with the higher interest rates. They covered to keep rolling and will buy – when additional demand shows up – on the spot,” the firm added.

In addition, importers are reluctant (for the same reason) to take long positions so spot demand is sold at premiums in comparison with origin prices. It is also noticeable that Vietnamese processors are offering lower prices as they have their obligations to the banks to pay off their loans and to finance their RCN purchases. “So those processors are pushed to have sales contracts in the books and that only can be done when prices are discounted to trigger buying interest,” Global Trading explained.

It suggested that as very nice opportunities show up now, it might be interesting to take some additional coverage for Q4, 2023 and the first half of 2024.

Further comments from Global Trading on the cashew nut market and other key nut sectors can be found on its website.

Ho Chi Minh City-based supplier Golden Bridge reported that the market was more interesting last week when prices of WW320s dropped to levels of $2.35-2.40/lb FOB. There was particularly good demand from US buyers for WW240 grades.

The company added that buyers are more concerned about quality now. Indeed, at too low price levels, quality is becoming worse with more defects such as scrapes, broken, size and moisture, it warned.

Jun 09 - Asia Coffee-Trade slow in Vietnam on empty supplies; premiums flat in Indonesia (Reuters)

- Vietnam’s coffee export market continued on a sluggish note this week due to limited beans supplies, while prices remained high in Indonesia as buyers were fighting for beans, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans at 60,700 dong ($2.58) to 61,900 dong ($2.58-$2.64) per kilogramme, up from 60,300 dong to 61,300 dong last week.
“Prices are still rising but farmers and many exporters do not benefit much from the high prices as farmers already sold all their beans, while high financial cost concerns hindered many businesses from stocking up,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.

September robusta coffee settled up $53, or 2% at $2,636, as of Wednesday’s close.

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a premium range of $40-$50 per tonne to the September contract, compared with the $190 premium last week.

- While Indonesian Sumatra robusta coffee bean was offered at $270 premium to the September contract this week, unchanged from a week ago.
“The price remained high. It’s unlikely for the price to go down at the moment,” one trader based in the region said.
Another trader also offered $365 premium to the August to November contract. Last week, the premium was at $365 to the July to August contract.
“Exporters are fighting for beans due to scarce supplies,” the second trader said. “That explains why local prices are rising more than global prices.”

Jun 08 - Concerns about heavy rains in Ivory Coast support cocoa prices (IHSmarkit)

- Cocoa futures climb to six-and-a-half year high
- Flood risk in Ivorian cocoa plantations
- Cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast’s ports down 4.5% y/y

The cocoa market continued to be supported by concerns over tight supplies this week with cocoa futures in London hitting a fresh six-and-a-half year high of £2,364 per metric ton ($2,950/t) on Tuesday before closing at £2,334.

Recent heavy rains in Ivory Coast’s main cocoa growing regions have been raising concerns over the quality of the April-to-September mid-crop. Some areas with cocoa plantations will be affected by flooding if it continues to rain in the coming weeks as high moisture levels could attract insects and diseases.

In addition, arrivals of cocoa beans at Ivorian ports are still behind last year’s pace. The volume reached 2.104 million metric tons by 4 June since the start of the season in October, down 4.5% from the same period a year ago. However, the difference year-on-year continues to lessen as the crop progresses. Cocoa arrivals at ports were 5% y/y lower a week ago.

The International Cocoa Organization’s quarterly bulletin released last week also helped to push cocoa prices up. It increased the expected deficit for the current 2022-23 season to 142,000 metric tons from the 60,000 metric tons forecast before. Despite the expected rise in production, the lower exports of beans from major exporting countries, especially from the top producer, Ivory Coast, are contributing to concerns regarding the projected supply deficit for the current season.

Jun 05 - Vietnam cashew prices fell to lowest level in many years this May (IHSmarkit)

- WW320s were around $2.40/lb FOB
- Downward pressure remains
- Buyers hesitant on fears of further price declines

- After moving in a sideways direction in the range of $2.45-2.55 per pound FOB for the last eight months, in May Vietnam WW320 cashews ended the month being traded around $2.40/lb FOB. Ho Chi Minh City-based Golden Bridge noted that this was a reduction of $0.10/lb from earlier levels.
“Although prices dropped to the lowest level in many years, we observed the downward trend still has not finished when demands and transactions are so weak. Obviously, pressure is higher with factories who have collected a large amount of raw cashew nuts. No one thought prices would drop too deep like this, especially when the volume of Vietnam's new crop was confirmed to be less,” the company added.
- Most buyers are hesitant to cover now as they are scared that prices could drop more and indeed with pending orders many of them are asking to delay shipment schedules, Golden Bridge observed.

Jun 02 - Asia Coffee-Vietnam coffee trading subdued, prices rising, on tight supply (Reuters)

- Coffee trading in Vietnam remains sluggish and exporters in Indonesia are fighting for beans due to a prolonged robusta coffee shortage in major Asian producers, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in Vietnam sold beans at 60,300 dong to 61,300 dong ($2.57 to $2.61) per kilogram, higher than 59,200 dong to 61,100 dong offered last week.
“It’s very tepid now. Normally, trading is this slow only from August to September before the new crop,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.
“Output of the 2023/24 crop will be a lot lower than the current, not because of the weather but because of a smaller cultivation area as farmers switched to other fruit trees,” the trader added.

- Coffee exports from Vietnam are estimated to have decreased 2.2% in the first five months of 2023 from a year earlier to 882,000 tonnes, or 14.7 million 60-kg (130-pound) bags, official data showed. While Indonesia said it exported 7,273.8 tonnes of Sumatra robusta coffee bean in April, dropping 46.7% on a yearly basis.

- September robusta coffee settled at $2,520, as of Wednesday’s close.
Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a premium of $190 per tonne to the September contract. The premium was $150 to $180 to the July contract last week.

- The Sumatra bean price was at a $270 premium to the September contract, unchanged from last week.
“The price was stable as the situation remained the same as last week,” said one trader.
Another trader quoted a $365 premium to the August to November contracts. Last week, the premium was $215 to the July contract.

“Local coffee prices have increased as coffee supply is not enough, causing exporters to scramble to purchase,” the second trader said. “This caused local prices to rise more than the terminal prices.” ($1 = 23,443 dong)

Jun 01 - Robusta coffee traders fear prolonged tightness (IHSmarkit)

- Traders pin their hopes on the Brazilian crop
- Brazil’s robusta coffee exports down 60% y/y in 2022
- Asian robusta coffee production expected to remain tight

- Robusta coffee traders, having watched prices hit 15-year highs in May, are increasingly concerned that supplies of the bean variety used to make instant coffee will remain tight through to next year, Reuters reported. Brazil, the world’s fourth-largest robusta exporter after Vietnam, Indonesia and Uganda, has already begun harvesting its 2023-24 crop, and traders had been pinning their hopes on the country to plug a deficit caused by weak supply from Asia.

- However, traders and experts say robusta supplies are so tight in Asia that even 3 million 60-kg bags of exports from Brazil - the upper end of their forecasts - might not be enough to plug the gap. "If there were 5 million bags (of Brazil robusta exports) I could (see) a price fall but realistically, we are going to see unprecedented tightness that will carry on into next year," said a coffee analyst at a global trade house.

- Brazil exported just 1.508 million bags of robusta in calendar 2022, down 60% from 3.755 million the year before and as much as 4.927 million in 2020 as local roasters used more from the cheaper beans when arabica prices escalated.

- The tightness comes as top exporter Vietnam has all but run out of stock to ship this season, while No. 2 exporter Indonesia’s upcoming crop is expected to disappoint.

Another factor boosting robusta is a surge in demand for the bean that is cheaper than arabica and can be substituted in blends - something roasters have been doing at scale as arabica prices have been elevated for some two years running.
”When you switch a blend, the switch back is not that simple. It happens over a period of time. I think consumption of robusta is a lot bigger than most are assuming,” said a Europe-based trader.

Jun 01 - Increase in clove prices although Indonesia is close to harvesting (IHSmarkit)

- Low Indonesian crop in 2022 has favored a bullish trend
- Huge Indonesian purchases through Dubai and Singaporean traders
- Zanzibar has cleared out carry-over stocks

Cloves prices are in a bullish trend although harvest is close to starting in Indonesia according to the Dubai-located trader Girish Kumar in its latest market update.
Prices have ranged from 820-840 Indian rupee ($9.91-10.15/kg), incoterm excluded, this May, up from INR720-740/kg in April.

Indonesia’s industry has become a global re-exporter. There are rumors about massive Indonesian purchases of Zanzibar cloves, which might have cleared out its carry-over stocks. The tobacco industry is importing African cloves at low prices, to avoid high quotations for local crop.

Madagascar’s prices ranged from $8.3-8.5/kg CNF in the first fortnight of May and from $9-9.3/kg in the second fortnight, up from $7.5- 7.7/kg in April due to Indonesian purchases through traders in Singapore and Dubai. Madagascar had bumper crops compared with Indonesia from 2021-22 (18,000 metric tons in 2021 and 17,000 metric tons in 2022), having exported around 21,000 metric tons.

The Indian demand is weak as inventories are replenished although prices are growing due to robust international demand.

Indonesia’s harvest will take place between July-August, before the Madagascan (September). Kumar considers that prices might fall just then.

The bullish trend might rely on the disappointing 2022 Indonesian crop, which was below 100,000 metric tons, after reaching around 130,000 metric tons. The Indonesian market consumes around 100,000 metric tons, exporting the rest of its inventories. The other origins are not expanding their production. As a result, Indonesia’s 2023 production will be essential to drive prices and there might be rumors about a disappointing supply to favor speculation.

Jun 01 - Delays in EU beet sowing threaten to slow sugar output recovery
Widespread delays in sowing due to wet weather and potential pest attacks in France are threatening to limit an expected rise in the European Union's sugar output this year after farmers were encouraged to plant more by high prices, producers said. Sugar beet production in the EU is closely watched as sugar prices in the bloc are already trading near record highs following a smaller harvest and increased refining costs last year.

May 29 - Brazil's coffee crop should surprise positively and exports recover - Cecafe
Brazil's 2023 coffee crop should surprise positively and exports recover in the second half of the year, the head of exporters group Cecafe said on Friday, after shipments dropped by roughly a fifth in the first four months to end-April. Speaking at an event hosted by Cecafe, Marcio Ferreira said a good shipment pace should then be maintained in the first half of 2024.

May 26 - Asia Coffee-Prices edge up further in Vietnam; Indonesia faces supply crunch (Reuters)

- Coffee prices in Vietnam continued to rise this week, tracking gains in London robusta futures on supply concerns, while traders were scrambling to buy beans in Indonesia as those from the current harvest were limited. Farmers in Vietnam sold beans at 59,200 dong to 61,100 dong ($2.53-$2.61) per kilogramme, higher than 55,200 dong to 57,500 dong range last week.

July robusta coffee settled up $16 at $2,573, as of Wednesday’s close.
“July prices remain sky high due to concerns over short-term supplies shortage in key markets,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.
“Many exporters are afraid that they do not have enough beans to deliver in the second half of this year.”

The trader estimated a 10%-15% decrease in output in the current crop against the previous one, while the United States Agriculture Department said in its latest report production would be 6% lower. BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, said the transition to El Niño conditions in the third quarter has stoked fears of reduced output in both Vietnam and Indonesia.

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a premium of $150-$180 per tonne to the July contract, widening from last week's $150-$160 range.

- While Indonesian Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at $270 premium to the September contract. The price was $140 premium to the July contract.
“The price is soaring because exporters are aggressively buying due to limited supplies,” said a trader.
- The premium was at $215 to the July contract, another trader said, up from a $170-$200 premium range a week ago.
“The increase was in line with the local market movement,” the second trader said. “Supplies are not enough, causing exporters to scramble for beans and pushing local prices to rise higher than London prices.” ($1 = 23,443 dong)

May 26 - Brazil cane crushing, sugar output beat estimates in early May
Sugarcane crushing and sugar output in Brazil's center-south beat market forecasts in the first half of May, data from industry group UNICA showed on Thursday, as mills took advantage of positive weather conditions to speed up operations. Both figures came in significantly ahead of already optmistic estimates from analysts surveyed by S&P Global Commodity Insights, as markets had forecast a perfect fortnight for mills.

May 25 - Analysts see perfect first half of May for Brazil sugar mills
Sugar mills in Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of the sweetener, had a very productive first half of May with no stoppages and a large sugarcane crush seen above 40 million tonnes for the fortnight, according to industry analysts. "In the center-south of Brazil no significant rains in May so far so no days lost," said Felippe Reis, crop analyst for EarthDaily Analytics.

May 24 - Sharp increase in garlic, turmeric and ginger prices in Bangladesh (IHSmarkit)

- Domestic supply dependent on India, Burma and China
- Key factors: weak domestic exchange currency, disappointing domestic crops and international supply shortage
- Bangladesh’s 2023 ginger production at around 80,000 metric tons

Bangladeshi retail prices for ginger and chili are sharply growing, due to bullish trends in India and China, their main suppliers, according to data from the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB).

The combination of weak domestic crop and international supply, inflation and falling exchange value of the taka currency against US dollar are pushing up prices at a record pace.

Bangladesh is one of the largest consumers of spices in south Asia, importing from China, India and Burma as its domestic crops cannot cover its demand. Its 2023 ginger crop was around 80,000 metric tons.

TCB listed the following average prices on 24 May 2023:
-   Garlic, 140-160 Bangladeshi takas per kilo ($1.28-1.47/kg), 38-100% more month-on-month and 23% more year-on-year
-   Turmeric, BDT200-280/kg, 5% more m/m and 27-43% more y/y
-   Dry chili, BDT400-460/kg, stagnant m/m and BDT110-220/kg more y/y
-   Ginger, BDT250-400/kg, BDT110-210 more m/m and BDT180-260 more y/y

May 24 - Slight increase in the global hazelnut supply projected due to a bumper Italian crop (IHSmarkit)

- 9% y/y growth in supply
- Ferrero is playing a key role in the Italian and Chilean production expansion
- 3% y/y fall in consumption

The 2023-24 world hazelnut supply is projected at 1.49 million (in-shell) metric tons, 9% more year-on-year, thanks to the combination of a bumper Italian crop (110,000 metric tons, 22% more y/y) and high carry-over stocks: 230,900 metric tons, 66% more y/y, according to the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC). This data unveils that minor but key origins such as Azerbaijan and Georgia are controlling pests and plagues hitting their orchards and Ferrero is completing its plans to diversity supply in Chile and Italy, cutting its dependency on the Turkish industry.

- Turkey’s 2023-24 crop is forecast to fall by 2% y/y to 810,000 metric tons although its carry-over stocks are doubling y/y to 215,000 metric tons, fueling supply to 1.02 million metric tons, 10% more y/y. That means Turkish prices might start a bearish trend despite inflation and the Turkish Grain Board’s purchasing policy.

- Chile’s production is expected to grow by 20% y/y to 65,000 metric tons, as a result of the expansion of the planted area led by Ferrero, mirroring the pattern followed in Italy.

- Azerbaijan and Georgian crops are projected to grow by 9% y/y and by 25%, respectively, to 65,000 and 50,000 metric tons.

- The US crop is gradually growing due to a successful expansion plan followed by farmers in Oregon, the largest domestic origin, once they developed trees resistant to the Eastern Filbert Blight. The US 2023-24 output is projected at 77,100 metric tons, 6% more y/y.

France and Spain
- France and Spain were relevant suppliers in western Europe but, currently, their global market share is falling against emerging suppliers such as Chile, Azerbaijan or Georgia.
- France’s 2023-24 crop is expected to double y/y to 10,000 metric tons as trees are in an ‘on-year’. On the other hand, Spain is expected to drop by 64% y/y to 2,500 metric tons.

Consumption
The 2022-23 world consumption might reach 1.13 million metric tons, 3% less y/y. The demand for hazelnut-based products, confectionery particularly, was at highs during Covid-19 lockdowns. However, this slight fall and the rising available supply might cut prices, being a turning point.

May 24 - Robusta coffee prices soar amid low global supplies (IHSmarkit)

- Robusta price hit a fresh 12-year high
- Conab cuts Brazil’s robusta coffee output by 4%
- Demand for robusta remains strong

Robusta coffee futures in London posted further gains and rose to a 15-year high of $2,675 per metric ton on Tuesday amid ongoing bullish sentiment. The market received support from cuts in Brazil’s robusta production outlook and lower expected output from Indonesia in 2023-24, amid already tight supplies.

The National Commodity Supply Corporation (Conab) trimmed Brazil’s robusta coffee production in the current 2023-24 season to 16.814 million 60-kg bags, a decrease of 4% from 17.509 million bags projected in January. This is 7.6% lower than 2022-23’s volume of 18.199 million bags. This drop is attributed to the robusta coffee output in the top producer state Espirito Santo which is projected to drop 14.4% to 10.575 million bags from 12.358 million a year earlier due to erratic weather.

In Indonesia, the world’s third-largest robusta coffee producer, the production is expected to fall 20% year-over-year in 2023-24 to 8.4 million bags after excessive rain hindered flowering, according to USDA forecast. In addition, supplies remain tight partly owing to strong demand as roasters increased the proportion of robusta in blends and cut use of more expensive arabica beans to reduce costs at a time when global economic woes are leading many consumers to look for cheaper options, according to Reuters.

Market players also noted that the supplies left in the world’s top robusta producer Vietnam are very low, while newly harvested robusta supplies from Brazil haven’t reach the global market in significant volumes yet.

May 23 - Slight increase in Indian cashew exports in Q1 (IHSmarkit)

-  52% y/y increase in exports
- Main importers: the UAE, Saudi Arabia and the Netherlands
- 26% y/y fall in imports of raw cashew nuts (RCNs)

India’s cashew exports rose by 52% year-on-year in volume to 22,282 metric tons but fell by 5% y/y in value to $106.1 million in Q1 2023, according to customs data.

The main importers of cashew kernels (60% of the total volume) were the UAE, Saudi Arabia and the Netherlands, which took 39%, 12% and 11%, respectively, of the volume. India’s imports of raw cashew nuts (RCNs) fell by 26% y/y to 126,985 metric tons. The main suppliers were Tanzania, Ghana, Mozambique, which accounted for 49%, 18% and 9%, respectively.

- Analysis : Indian domestic prices are at lows due to weak demand, forcing processors to cut imports of RCNs and fuelling exports.

May 23 - Above-average rains and lower grinding volume pressure cocoa prices (IHSmarkit)

- Improved weather expected to boost the mid-crop
- Ivory Coast’s cocoa arrivals down 5.7% y/y
- Cocoa futures remain at high levels

Cocoa prices closed lower on Monday as the market expects the development of the April-to-September mid-crop to finish strong due to above-average rains in most of Ivory Coast’s main cocoa growing regions in recent days, Reuters reported.

The world’s top cocoa producer Ivory Coast is in its rainy season which runs officially from April to mid-November. Farmers said that the weather should help the trees and young fruit to develop well. Despite the improved weather, cocoa arrivals at ports are still behind last year’s pace. The arrivals reached 2.030 million metric tons of cocoa beans by 21 May since the start of the season on 1 October, down 5.7% from the same period a year ago. However, the difference year-on-year decreases as the crop progresses. In mid-April cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports were 7% lower compared with last year.

The decline in prices was also attributed to the publication of April's Ivorian cocoa grinding data last week. The country processed 46,763 metric tons of cocoa during April, reflecting a 4.9% decrease compared with the corresponding month the previous year, according to the exporters' association GEPEX.

Cocoa futures in London started the week falling £26 ($32.35) to £2,372 per metric ton, while New York cocoa futures fell $45 to $3,023/t. However, both prices remain at high levels as the market is still concerned over the limited supplies in West Africa. Cocoa producers have been struggling due to rising production costs and low cocoa prices for several years, which have affected farmers' margins and led to a decrease in production.

May 19 - Turkish hazelnut market unmoved by inconclusive election result (IHSmarkit)

-  Currency devaluation expected later
-  Bumper crop forecast
-  Exports still lagging behind

- The Turkish hazelnut market has continued in the same holding pattern with many speculators still expecting a depreciation in the currency after the election is officially over.
Olivier Telvi of UK trader Ronly Gida UK Limited, which represents the Turkish hazelnut processor Ronly Gida, noted that the much anticipated election on Sunday did not give a conclusive victory but with the way the voting happened it is widely expected that president Recip Erdogan is likely to win the second round on 28 May.
“In the meantime the Turkish exporter union announced a crop size for 2023 of 817,000 metric tons which would be another bumper crop. This alongside bad shipments should mean better prices ahead. However, there is still discussion of intervention from TMO (the Turkish Grain Board) which will help prevent the price from falling too much,” Telvi added.

- Sara van der Graaf of QFN Trading & Agency observed that prices and exchange rates were stable after the inconclusive election results. Van der Graaf also noted that to date Turkey exported 231,000 metric tons of shelled hazelnuts, versus 276,000 metric tons in the same period last season.

- QFN Trading listed the following currency movements for the last week:-
    Euro-US dollar 1.0895 -0.57% The euro became weaker against the US dollar
    US Dollar-Turkish lira 19,7103 +1.55% The US dollar became stronger against the Turkish lira
    Euro-Turkish lira 21,4746 +0.98% The euro became stronger against the Turkish lira

- QFN Trading also listed the following current price indications for 2022 crop hazelnuts (class 1) on a per 100 kilo, delivered Europe (DAP) basis:-

    Roasted meal 0-2mm $665 in 10kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €610)
    Roasted diced 2-4mm $695 in 10kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €637)
    Roasted diced 5-7mm $705 in 10kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €647)
    Roasted diced 8-12mm $725 in 10kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €665)
    S.r. blanched 11-13mm <10% skin $745 in 10kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €683)
    S.r. blanched 12-14mm <10% skin $795 in 10kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €729)
    S.r. blanched 12-14mm <5% skin $800 in 10kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €734)
    NHK 11-13mm $625 in 10kg cartons (indication in euro: €573)
    NHK 13-15mm $680 in 10kg cartons (indication in euro: €624)

For shipments per container, CFR EMP: deduction $6/100 kg (subject to final destination port)

Surcharge for extra class: $10/100 kg

May 19 - Pepper market has a steady to firm undertone (IHSmarkit )

-  Prices stable for the time being but further increases expected in coming months
-  European and US buyers holding back for now
-  China and the Middle East were keen buyers recently

International pepper prices are viewed as steady to firm after gains in Brazilian and Vietnamese pepper prices in the last two weeks.
On 17 May, Albert Berisa of Rotterdam trader Catz International told S&P Global Commodity Insights that pepper prices from the latter two origins increased by more than 15% in the last fortnight. China in particular was quite actively purchasing along with the Middle East.
“Now, since yesterday (16 May) the market calmed down a bit,” Berisa explained. “We saw a slight reduction in prices but it was only by $15 per metric ton. The undertone is still steady to firm but it is now temporarily stable until the next buying wave will come again.”

- Berisa noted that Europe and the US were less prominent buyers than China and the Middle East.

Vietnam farmers reluctant to sell
He added: “Farmers do not want to sell below a certain price so before the price rise about a month ago we saw prices steady for a long period of time in Vietnam. The Vietnamese farmers were unwilling to release the material unless someone would pay a better price. So those who were in need of coverage, especially the exporters, had to buy in the local market and pay the price and also a certain premium, but there is no real selling pressure from Vietnam. Farmers prefer to hold onto their pepper than sell at the prices which we saw a month ago. In their opinion a more healthy price level would be 30% higher. We are now half way to that. Maybe the next 15% will follow in the next one to two months.”
Hence, at the moment any sales from Vietnam are of small volumes and on a hand to mouth basis.
“So far they still feel it’s a better investment to hold onto their pepper than to cash in. Also with the high rate of inflation etc. Also, they can easily switch because they are making good money on other crops, such as coffee, jack fruit, durian. That brings them more profit. Also, a lot of farmers have decided either to cut their pepper trees or not to replant and to plant the other crops instead because they are more remunerative,” Berisa explained.

Looking to Brazil
- Marco Van der Does of Van der Does Spice Brokers said: “Everyone is waiting a bit for Brazil to come out with their June-July crop. That will be the main change in the market. China is the biggest importer of Vietnam pepper at the moment so they are making the market.”
- Kai Jantzen of Hamburg trader Jantzen & Deeke said: “The market is quiet but very stable indeed. Only the new crop in Brazil (south, then north) could change the sentiment.”

- Pepper production from Vietnam and Brazil is expected to become lower in the coming years unless international pepper prices rebound to $5,000-6,000/t or higher. Current prices of $3,500-4,000/t are not sufficient motivation. Vietnam’s latest crop is said to be about 10% down from that of last year. Brazil’s 2023 crop was initially projected to be larger than that of 2022 but is now expected to be 10-15% lower. “So instead of a crop size of between 100,000 to 110,000 (metric tons) now probably it is going to be maybe 90,000 or 95,000 (metric tons),” Berisa said. Berisa added he expects another potential upturn in pepper prices over the next three to four months in line with next likely buying wave. European buyers will most likely delay coverage until after the summer, he suggested.
“It also depends on the stock position of each individual company,” Berisa noted. Post-Covid there was a huge buying wave which resulted in substantial stocks in Europe and the US.
Now, the market is close to the point of these stocks being used up, meaning fresh demand is imminent.
When Europe and the US next take coverage this could result in a 15-20% rise in prices from current levels, Berisa predicted.
Van der Does suggested that the next key factor is what he referred to as “the August effect” meaning the usual lull in demand in this month due to the holiday period in Europe and the US etc. added to which there is the arrival of Indonesia’s new pepper crop. “Until that time the pepper market will be sideways to maybe even firmer depending on the buying levels of China. The only difference is that again this year the output from Indonesia for Lampong and Muntok will be lower and less influential,” he concluded.

May 19 - Sugar futures drop on China's reserve release (IHSmarkit )

-  China will release 1 million metric tons of sugar due to high global prices
-  Petrobras approves a new pricing strategy that reduces ethanol prices
-  France’s sugar beet area expected to decline

Raw sugar futures closed lower on moderate trading volume as prices were pressured by external factors. China's announcement of releasing 1 million metric tons of sugar from state-owned reserves due to high prices added to the downward trend. Additionally, Brazil's Petrobras approving a new pricing strategy for diesel and gasoline, potentially reducing gasoline prices, negatively affected cane-based ethanol.

However, support came from France’s lower sugar beet forecast. France’s farm ministry forecast 2023 sugar beet plantings at 380,000 hectares, down 2,000 hectares from its April forecast, down 5.3% from 2022, and down 11.8% from the five-year average.

The most-active contract for July delivery shed 22 points to settle at 26.07 cents per pound, in dealings between 26.01 and 26.63 cents. Second-month October also declined 22 points to 25.73 cents/lb and the back months ended with losses between 24 and 30 points. Trading volume rose to 110,236 lots from 95,257 a day earlier.

White sugar futures in London also finished weaker, with the benchmark August contract falling $1.90 to a settlement at $715.00 per metric ton, having moved between $713.30 and $726.90 in the course of the day. Second-month October declined $2.80 to $704.20/t and the rest of the board finished between $3.40 cents and $16.50 down. Trading volume rose to 8,575 lots from 7,545 a day before.

The August–July white sugar premium rose to $140.25/t from $137.30 a day earlier.

May 19 - Conab lowers forecast for Brazil's 2023 coffee crop on robusta drop
Brazil's 2023 coffee crop is expected to reach 54.74 million 60-kg bags, government food and statistics agency Conab said on Thursday, slightly lowering its January forecast of 54.94 million bags due to a larger drop in robusta coffee production. The total output, nonetheless, would still represent a 7.5% increase over the previous season, driven by higher arabica coffee production despite 2023 being an "off-year" in its biennial cycle that alternates years of high and low output.

May 18 - Asia Coffee-Scarce supplies in major Asian robusta producers; prices jump to multi-yr highs (Reuters)

- Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices edged up on Thursday from a week earlier on a supplies crunch while in Indonesia premiums extended gains due to poor output from the current harvest.  Farmers in Vietnam sold beans at 55,200 dong to 57,500 dong ($2.35 to $2.45) per kilogram, higher than last week's 53,200 dong-54,200 dong range.

July robusta coffee gained $101 over the past week, settling at $2,582 as of Wednesday’s close, the highest level in 12 years, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.

Some traders said Wednesday’s close even hit a 16-year high.
“It’s very hard to buy beans in Asia now to fulfil signed contracts. Prices are too high, together with that, supplies are limited,” said an exporter based in Ho Chi Minh City.

- Export prices flipped to premiums this week due to subdued activities and empty stocks, according to traders. Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta  at a premium of $150-$160 per tonne to the July contract.

- Indonesia’s Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at a $140 premium to the July contract, compared with last week’s $60 premium.
“Prices rose from last week because beans supply was limited due to small harvests,” said a trader based in the region. “Some areas have started harvesting but yields are not large.”
Another trader offered a $170 to $200 premium range to the July-August contract, compared with last week’s $100 premium to the May-June contract.
“Limited supplies caused exporters to fight for beans and pushed local prices to rise more than global prices,” the second trader said.

May 17 - Guatemalan cardamom market holding stable after earlier spikes (IHSmarkit)

- Demand ticking along but nothing spectacular
- Hefty stocks held by traders internationally
- Green cardamoms scarcer than other grades

- Guatemalan cardamom prices have been mostly stable since initial increases of 30-40% following a spurt of demand after the Gulfood show this February. Albert Berisa of Rotterdam trader Catz International estimated that Guatemala has so far exported around 45,000 metric tons from its 2022-23 crop and has about 5,000 metric tons left to export, giving a total of 50,000 metric tons of exportable quality material.
“Prices have been stable now for a while, after the surge in prices in February, which was during the Gulfood, because then the demand was quite big,” he told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

- Berisa recalled that after the 30-40% price rises there was a downward correction, particularly on the lower grades, such as those used for grinding, in particular the mixed yellow qualities (MYQs).
“First, prices were increased for the lower grades by about 60% and now they dropped again by about 20%. So altogether, if we look at the prices before Gulfood and now, the prices for the lower grades increased by about 40% and for the more expensive ones, such as the green ones, it was about 25-30%,” Berisa explained.

S&P Global Commodities prices data on 17 May listed Guatemalan bold green cardamom of approximately 8 mm size at $15,000 per metric ton CIF Middle East. MYQs of minimum 360 grams/litre were indicated at $6,800/t CIF any destination but Berisa advised that this price should now be updated to $5,750/t CIF any destination. Guatemalan cardamom seeds were at $8,500/t CIF any destination.

Barker explained that Guatemalan bold green cardamoms were currently being offered:

- Large whole at $15.25 per kg CIF.

- Medium whole greens were at $12.25/kg CIF.

- small greens $10/kg CIF.

- Large whole pale green cardamoms were at $8.75/kg CIF.

- Medium pale greens $7.75/kg CIF.

Barker added that seeds were at $7.50/kg CIF and MYQs $4.75/kg CIF.

May 16 - Indian cumin seed prices close to reaching INR50,000/quintal level (IHSmarkit)

- 15% m/m increase in spot prices
- 15-16% increase for futures prices for deliveries from May-August 2023
- Bullish prices due to the combination of damaged crops and low carry-over stocks

- Indian cumin seed spot prices averaged 46,408 Indian rupees per quintal ($564.1/quintal) at the Unjha market (Gujarat) on 16 May 2023, 15% more month-on-month and 110% more y/y. Prices are not finding a ceiling after unseasonal rainfalls delayed the harvests in Gujarat and Rajasthan (both in the North West), having damaged orchards in both.

Indian cumin seed exports reached 40,419 metric tons valued at $128.6 million in Q1 2023, 7% less y/y in volume and 31% more y/y in value, according to customs data.
China, Bangladesh and the US were the main importers of whole cumin seeds (95% of the exported volume), accounting for 24%, 22% and 5%, respectively.

Prices might exceed the INR50,000/quintal level in Q2 as the demand is still growing strongly, particularly in China. Cumin’s price trend will be bullish in the long-term due to the combination of disappointing crops and low carry-over stocks.

May 16 - Iranian pistachio exports clearly behind the previous season (IHSmarkit)

- 47% y/y fall in seasonal exports
- Main importers: Russia and India
- 23% y/y fall in production

Iran has exported 39,000 metric tons of pistachios from October 2022-April 2023, 47.3% less year-on-year and down from 152,000 metric tons in October 2020-April 2021. Open mouth in-shells accounted for 69% of the total, according to Tehran-based Green Diamond Tree in its latest market update.

Green Diamond Tree explained that sales are slowed due to high prices.
Russia and India were the main importers, accounting for 33% and 23%, respectively.

The 2022 crop totalled 105,000 metric tons (-23% y/y) with carry-over stocks at 15,000 metric tons, bringing the total supply to 120,000 metric tons. Seasonal sales totalled 63,000 metric tons, domestic sales taking 38% of the volume.

May 16 - Coffee traders pin hopes on Brazil for robusta beans as prices soar
Coffee traders scrambling to supply roasters with robusta beans are pinning their hopes on Brazil, as prices for the bitter bean typically used to make instant coffee hit 12-year highs after exports from top producer Vietnam slid. Vietnamese farmers have almost no stock left to sell after downsizing their coffee cultivation area to grow more profitable passion fruit and durian instead, leaving the market exceedingly tight.

May 16 - More rain needed for end of Ivory Coast cocoa mid-crop
Rainfall was below average last week in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa-growing regions, where farmers said more moisture was needed to have a strong end to the April-to-September mid-crop. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is in its rainy season, which runs from April to November

May 15 - Cashew nut kernel market viewed as stable (IHSmarkit)

- Uncertainty prevails over consumer demand
- Spot demand expected to improve in H2 2023
- Market is close to its lowest level

Most cashew demand is covered for nearby and buyers are concentrating on the second half of 2023 and first quarter of 2024.

Dutch edible nuts broker Global Trading & Agency observed that spot stocks are available but limited as buyers remain uncertain about consumer demand during the summer and are therefore reluctant to take long positions. “Most stocks are moving nicely now so we expect more spot demand during the second half of 2023 when consumer demand is picking up,” the company added.

As prices do not decline further while demand is limited, the market is at or close to its lowest level so now might be an interesting moment to take some additional cover until Q1, 2024, Global Trading suggested.

Further comments from Global Trading on the cashew nut market and other key nut sectors can be found on its website.

In Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh City-based supplier Golden Bridge reported that there was strong demand last week for the WW240 grade. Deals were confirmed at $2.70-2.80/lb FOB. Contrasting with this, demand for the WW320 grade was quite low and its prices are reducing further.

Golden Bridge is receiving more offers from BRC packers at $2.50/lb FOB until December shipments.

The company added it is difficult to request high quality material at such low prices now.

May 15 - US almond shipments at a slower pace this April (IHSmarkit)

- Monthly decline on both domestic and export volumes versus April 2022
- Domestic seasonal shipments 6.1% behind but exports 7.6% ahead
- Total seasonal shipments 3.5% up

Californian almond shipments slowed down last month.
The ninth position report for the 2022/23 season from the Almond Board of California (ABC) showed that volumes sold overseas this April amounted to 140.43 million lbs compared with 182.81 million lbs in the same month of 2022.

This brought export volumes for the first nine months (August-April) of 2022/23 to 1.45 billion lbs, 7.6% up from the 1.34 billion lbs reached in the same period a year ago.

Domestic volumes last month were at 56.81 million lbs against 62.42 million lbs in April 2022, helping to push domestic sales for the first nine months of 2022/23 to 544.04 million lbs from 579.4 million lbs in the same stage of 2021/22 – a decrease of 6.1%.

In his monthly letter to industry members Richard Waycott, president and chief executive of the ABC, noted that the board is placing “special emphasis” on reversing the slide in domestic consumption and more information on these efforts will be revealed in the coming months.

The latest shipments brought year to date total shipments to 1.99 billion lbs from 1.92 billion lbs a year ago – an increase of 3.5%.

Waycott remarked: “Well, what charges ahead for several months needs to take a rest once in a while! This seems to have been what took place in April as the global market contemplated the different acreage estimates and crop forecasts.”

March 2023 was the second-largest total shipping month in the ABC’s history. “What a difference one month can make,” Waycott observed. Compared with a year ago, April 2023 export shipments were off by about 43 million lbs, or 23%, he noted.

Several of the ABC’s major export stars took a breather in April compared with March including China, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Morocco, and the UAE. However, all of these countries, except Spain and the Netherlands, are in positive territory on a year-to-date basis compared with 2021/2022.
“Understandably, total committed shipments are well off last year’s mark as buyers and sellers try to interpret the outlook for the coming crop. This will become increasingly clear as the crop matures over the next two months,” Waycott concluded.

The ABC report showed total committed shipments of 564.65 million lbs versus 754.96 million lbs at the same stage last year – a decline of 25.2% y/y.

Dutch edible nuts broker Global Trading & Agency said that an expected 2023 US almond crop of between 2.2-2.5 billion lbs would be acceptable for world supply and help the industry to reduce carry-over stock as the 2024 crop most probably (“weather depending obviously”) will be another bumper one with all the water available currently.

May 11 - Cocoa mid-crop starting to pick up (IHSmarkit)

- High soil moisture offsetting the below-average rains
- Cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports down 6.6% y/y
- Prices might retreat in the near-term

Cocoa futures ended largely unchanged last week but posted some losses earlier in the week after hitting a 6-1/2-year high two weeks ago. Below-average rains last week in most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa growing regions has not affected crops as soil moisture was high enough to offset it.

The April-to-September mid-crop recently started to pick up due to abundant and well-developed beans in Ivory Coast, local farmers reported. However, more rain will be needed to boost harvests at the end of the mid-crop, in August and September.

Prices recovered later in the week as cocoa arrivals at top grower Ivory Coast’s ports remained behind last season's pace. Total volume of cocoa port arrivals reached 1.945 million metric tons by May 30 since the start of the season on October 1, down 6.6% from the same period last season, according to Reuters.

S&P Global Commodity Insights maintains its estimates for a global cocoa bean deficit of 125,000 metric tons for 2022-23 due to an expected decrease in output and a rise in cocoa grinding. Despite the bullish outlook for cocoa markets, prices might retreat in the near-term as the mid-crop progresses, opening better buying opportunities.

May 10 - Bumper almond crop expected in Spain (IHSmarkit)

- 71.1% y/y increase in production expected
- Conventional production to account for 84% of the harvested volume
- Forecast might be downgraded if precipitations do not recover

Spain’s 2023-24 almond crop is expected to reach 128,419 metric tons, up 71.1% y/y, according to the latest subjective estimate released by the Spanish Association of Nut and Carob Growers (Aeofruse). Conventional and organic output accounts for 84% and 16% of the total output respectively.
This increase might rely on poor productions in the two previous season due to frosts and blooming issues, trees having experiences a long-term rest.
The planted area totals 638,890 hectares, 525,840 being productive. Non-irrigated and irrigated acreage took 83% and 17%, respectively, of the productive area.
The Spanish production has a strong projection over the next five years thanks to young and irrigated orchards, which already account for 57% of the harvested volume.

However, Aeofruse has explained that it might downward this forecast if rainfalls do not recover in the short-term.

May 09 - Fall in crude oil prices drives bearish trend in guar gum (IHSmarkit)

- 2% m/m increase in spot prices
- 15% y/y fall in guar gum exports in January 2023
- 2-5% m/m fall in futures prices for deliveries from May-October 2023

India’s guar gum spot price averaged 11,796 Indian rupees per quintal ($144.3/q) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 8 May 2023, 2% more month-on-month and 1% less year-on-year.
The combination of heavy stocks of guar seeds and weak exports of gum are expected to keep prices under pressure, according to the Indian consultancy company SMC Global Securities explained in its latest market update. Guar seed and futures gum quotations are bearish due to the fall in oil prices.
Indian guar gum exports fell by 15% y/y in volume to 34,948 metric tons and by 12% in value to $70.6 million. The main importers were the US (10,998 metric tons, -14% y/y); Russia (7,288 metric tons, -0.3% y/y) and Germany (4,126 metric tons, -16% y/y).

The daily futures market prices on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) were:

    Deliveries in April closed at INR 11,209/q for deliveries on 20 March, 6% less m/m
    INR 11,445/q for deliveries in May 2023 on 5 May, 2% less m/m

May 09 - Low supply and strong demand boost robusta coffee prices (IHSmarkit)

- Arabica coffee prices fall despite low stocks
- Colombia’s production down 25% y/y in April
- Vietnam’s output for coffee expected to decline by 7% in 2022-23

- Arabica coffee prices ended lower last week but robusta prices remained slightly higher.

The ICO Brazilian Naturals group indicator fell to an average of $1.89 per pound, down 2.5% from the previous week and 6.3% from two weeks ago. Brazil’s 2023-24 coffee crop has started in April with some regions of Sao Paulo state already harvesting arabica coffee.

Despite the lower production, Colombian ICO’s mild arabicas group indicator ended at an average of $2.30/lb, down 2.2% from a week ago and 4.9% from $2.42/lb two weeks before. Colombia produced only 566,000 60-kg bags of coffee in April, down sharply by 25% from 750,000 in the same month last year and the lowest quantity for this month since 2011, according to data from the National Federation of Coffee Growers.

The ICO’s other mild arabicas group indicator also ended lower at $2.22/lb, down 2.8% compared to $2.29 the previous week. Arabica “C” futures on the ICE fell by 1.6% to a three-week low of $1.89/lb and 5.1% from two weeks ago despite the lower inventories as the market has recently corrected from a surge to a nearly seven-month high in mid-April. Stocks of ICE certified arabica beans fell by 22,124 bags to a four-month low of 698,868 bags in the two weeks to April 25, exchange data show.

By contrast, robusta coffee prices continued its bullish trend due to low stocks in top producer Vietnam, coupled with strong demand. The other mild robustas group indicator rose by 0.5% to $1.19/lb from a week ago and 1% from the price recorded two weeks before. Robusta coffee futures in London ended at average of $2,546 per metric ton, up 0.5% from the previous week and 2.8% from two weeks ago. In Vietnam, robusta coffee likely to fall by 7% in 2022-23 to a four-year low of 1.67 million metric tons (27.8 million 60-kg bags), according to the median estimate of exporters and traders in a Bloomberg survey.

May 08 - Australia’s 2023 almond crop estimate downgraded due to low yield (IHSmarkit)

- Australia’s 2023 production re-estimated at 117,150 metric tons, 25% less than the previous estimate
- Combination of unfavorable weather, poor quality water, floodings and bee pollination shortage
- The 2022-23 US and Spanish productions hit by drought

Australia’s 2023 almond production estimate has been downgraded by 25% to 117,150 metric tons compared with the forecast released in January 2023, according to the Almond Board of Australia (ABA). The combination of a poor pollination weather, a shortage of beehives in the state of Victoria due to restrictions after a varroa mite outbreak, unfavourable weather and poor-quality water during floodings in the Murray Darling basin has hit the yield. ABA has reported that it will release a new estimate soon.
“This will be a huge blow for growers who are already dealing with high costs of production and low global pricing,” the chief officer of ABA, Tim Jackson, said.

Australian is mirroring the US and Spain, the other two key global origins, whose 2022-23 productions have been hit by severe drought.

May 08 - Sugar prices at 11-year highs, buy or sell?
Traders, producers and analysts were mostly bullish about the outlook for already high sugar prices, as they gathered at an annual meeting this week in New York, while a few expressed caution after sugar hit a 11-1/2 year high last week. Raw sugar prices at the Intercontinental Exchange rose 37% since January to a peak of 27.41 cents per pound last week amid a short-term supply tightness and concerns over the arrival of the El Nino climate phenomenon later this year, that could disrupt crops.

May 05 - Asia Coffee-Domestic prices edge further in Vietnam, Indonesia quiet (Reuters)

- Coffee prices in Vietnam continued to inch up this week on tighter supplies as farmers ran down their inventories, while trading activities remained slow in Indonesia after Eid Al-Fitr holiday, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in Vietnam's central highlands, the country's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans at 50,800 dong to 52,800 dong ($2.17-$2.25) per kilogramme, higher than last week's 50,500 dong to 52,200 dong range.
“Trade is not really robust due to supplies crunch and post-long holiday sentiment,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.
“Shipping rates are now rising. Hence, exporters’ profit has been narrowed.”

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount of $120-$130 per tonne to the July contract, unchanged from a week earlier.
July robusta coffee settled at $2,424 as of Wednesday’s close.

- Coffee exports from Vietnam are estimated to have increased 1.8% in the first four months of 2023 from a year earlier to 753,000 tonnes, equivalent to 12.5 million 60-kg (130-pound) bags, official data showed. The country’s coffee shipments in April are estimated at 200,000 tonnes, valued at $474 million.

- Meanwhile, shipment of Indonesia’s Sumatra robusta coffee beans stood at 7,529.46 tonnes in March, a 55% drop on a yearly basis, trade office data showed. Sumatra coffee bean exports also dropped 37.34% on a monthly basis from 12,016.6 tonnes shipped in February.

- The Sumatra Robusta coffee beans prices this week remained unchanged at $40 premium to the July contract.
“Prices are stable as trading has just started after Eid,” said a trader.
According to another trader based in the same region, beans were at a $100 premium to the May-June contract.

“Trading has not been back to normal yet and is still a bit quiet after Eid,” the second trader said.

May 04 - Lower Indian sugar production weighs on global supply (IHSmarkit)

- Sugar prices hit 11-and-a-half year high
- India’s sugar production estimate trimmed by 10.3%
- Sugar exports from India are expected to fall by half in 2022-23

Sugar futures rose to its highest level in 11-and-a-half years last week boosted mainly by concerns over tight global nearby supplies.

Thailand’s sugarcane crushing in 2022-23 ended at 93.9 million metric tons, down 14.6% from the 110 million initially expected, and forecasts for the 2023-24 season are even lower at 74 million metric tons as farmers are switching from cane to cassava. Chinese sugar production in 2022-23 also came in well below expectation. In Brazil, 2023-24 cane crush started at a slow pace in April.

However, the scenario in India is currently one of the most bullish elements in the sugar market. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) trimmed the sugar production to 32.8 million metric tons, down 10.1% from 36.5 million assumed at the start of the season on 1 October as cane yields were affected by erratic rainfall in India’s top producing region Maharashtra.

With that being said, the current output forecast for this season does not leave any space for additional exports above its recent quota of 6 million metric tons. With production estimated at 32.8 million metric tons and domestic consumption at 27.5 million, the exportable surplus would be 5.3 million metric tons, according to ISMA. This is well below the record of 11.2 million metric tons exported in the 2021-22 season.

In the 2023-24 season, in a scenario of normal monsoon rains, India may produce around 33-34 million metric tons of sugar due to an assumed slight increase in the planted area, which could result in exports in the range of 3-5 million metric tons. But in a scenario for poor monsoon rainfall, the government may not allow exports at all, which could increase sugar prices further.

May 04 - Cocoa prices hit seven-year high amid rising demand and tight supplies (IHSmarkit)

- Cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports down 6.9% y/y
- High demand increases deficit projection for 2022-23
- Prices are expected to maintain the upward trend

Cocoa futures continued to climb last week, having traded above $3,000 per metric ton, the highest level in seven years. The market maintained the bullish trend as output from the top producer Ivory Coast remained lower and global cocoa grind saw an increase in the first quarter of 2023.

Cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports remain well behind last season's pace. Total volume of cocoa port arrivals reached 1.907 million metric tons by April 30 since the start of the season on October 1, down 6.9% from the same period last season, according to Reuters.

Except for North America, all regions showed cocoa grind growth in Q1 2023, which combined processed 4.5% more than in the first quarter of 2022.

S&P Global Commodity Insights therefore raised its deficit projection to 125,000 metric tons for the current 2022-23 season, up from 91,000 expected previously. Ivory Coast and Germany were the main contributors to the increase with higher volume of cocoa grinding by 35,000 and 15,000 metric tons, respectively.

Despite the lower volume of cocoa arrivals at ports, the industry believes that these numbers will recover in the coming months as Ivory Coast’s farmers reported that soil moisture is high enough to ensure a strong April-to-September mid-crop.

However, cocoa prices are expected to continue rising due to improving economic conditions globally and the potential for El Niño later in the year.

May 03 - Indian cumin seed futures soar to record levels (IHSmarkit)

- Dwindling carry-over stocks and below normal arrivals
- Increased spot demand for coriander seed
- Downward pressure on guar seed and guar gum prices

Indian cumin seed (jeera) May futures on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) jumped to its record level, breaching the 45,000 rupees ($550) per quintal mark at NCDEX as well as in the Unjha market in Gujarat. Cumin seed prices in Unjha were reported at INR45,180/quintal on Tuesday.
“Tighter carry-over stocks and below normal arrivals in the market pushed up the jeera prices to the record levels. Market participants showed active interest in buying activities in anticipation of a big rally in prices,” SMC Global Securities explained.

Indian cumin seed prices have doubled in the last year and are likely to move up further on prevailing supply deficit concerns. However, marginal traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of a rise in seasonal supply of cumin seed in Gujarat and Rajasthan that will lead to a correction in prices.

May cumin seed futures are expected to trade in a range of INR42,000-47,500/quintal.

Coriander seed
NCDEX May coriander seed (dhaniya) prices are expected to extend their short covering on increased spot demand. Report of yield losses and crop damage in Rajasthan due to recent unseasonal rainfall has triggered short covering in the market.

Yield losses in Rajasthan and Gujarat due to unseasonal rainfall might lead to a downward revision in production. Coriander seed production is estimated to increase by 81% year-on-year to 376,000 metric tons in Gujarat during 2022-23. NCDEX May coriander seed futures are likely to trade in a range of INR6,500-6,900/quintal SMC Global Securities predicted.

Guar seed and guar gum
Guar seed May futures are likely to trade sideways to down in the wake of a sluggish demand outlook. Heavy stocks with farmers and bleak export enquiries of gum are expected to keep prices under pressure.
Guar prices will also track the downfall in crude oil prices that will hurt the demand prospects of gum. Guar seed prices will trade in a range of INR5,200-5,700/quintal in the near term while guar gum prices are likely to trade in a range of 10,500-11,800/quintal SMC Global Securities suggested.

Mentha oil
SMC Global Securities predicts that the mentha oil May contract is likely to trade down in the wake of improved weather conditions in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar for sowing.
A recent spell of rainfall in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar has proved helpful for sowing activities. Forecast of above normal rainfall in May will be helpful for sowing activities of mentha. In addition, rising imports of menthol and limited buying by China will also put pressure on prices.
Mentha oil prices are likely to trade in a range of INR955-990.

May 03 - Honduran coffee exports rise 48.7% in April 2023 (IHSmarkit)

- Coffee exports from Honduras reach 868,753 bags in April
- High exports were driven by higher demand and delayed shipments from the previous month
- Honduran exports are expected to rise to 5.10 million bags in 2022-23

Honduras exported 868,753 60-kg bags of coffee in April 2023, up 48.7% from 584,063 bags in the same month last year, according to preliminary data from the National Coffee Institute (IHCAFE). IHCAFE said that the strong rise in shipments during April was due to higher demand and delayed shipments from the previous month. This brought total exports in the first seven months of 2022–23 (October–September) to 2.880 million bags, up slightly from 2.809 million shipped in the same period last season.

The Honduran Coffee Exporters Association (ADECAFEH) projects the country to export 5.10 million 60-kg bags of coffee in the current season, up from 4.70 million in 2021–22.

May 01 - Chinese trader COFCO delivers 900,000 tns of sugar to ICE exchange
Chinese commodities trader COFCO International has delivered 900,000 tonnes of raw sugar to the International Exchange (ICE) on the expiry of the May contract, a very large amount of the product from a single company, traders said on Friday. The sugar being delivered by COFCO is all of Brazilian origin and will be made available to the companies taking delivery of the product at ports in the country, most likely the Santos port, the traders added.