Softs News

May 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

There were no compelling new insights on yesterday's trading day.

- London - after a slightly firmer opening - dutifully followed the New York market and traded down to lows of GBP 1783 / Sep 22. With low net turnover, the 2nd month ended the day GBP -10 at GBP 1789. New York Sep 22 lost $ 36 and closed at $ 2494.

- Both markets thus ended the day below the respective psychological resistances of GBP 1800 / $ 2500. This, coupled with slightly oversold markets, should at least provide for an attempt at an upward breakout.

May 18  - Indian cumin spot prices stabilised at around INR22,000/quintal (IHSmarkit)

- Slight increase in futures prices from June-September 2022
- 13% fall in exports

- India’s cumin seed spot prices averaged INR21,997 ($283.1/quintal) at the Unjha market (Gujarat, North West) on 17 May 2022, unchanged month-on-month.
- Cumin seed exports reached 28,670 tonnes valued at $62.4 million in January-February 2022, 13% less year-on-year in volume and 4% less y/y in value, according to customs data.
- Bangladesh and Afghanistan, a traditional re-exporter to Pakistan were the main importers, accounting for 26% and 11%, respectively.
- India’s 2021-22 cumin seed crop is expected to plummet to around 600,000-650,000 tonnes (-25-30% less y/y) as farmers cut drastically planted hectares, after prices hit the rock-bottom in the previous season, pushing up prices although the harvest is in full swing, according to trading sources.

May 18  - Spanish almond crop forecast downgraded due to frosts and heavy rains (IHSmarkit)

- 21% fall in production
- Irrigated orchards account for 65% of the hectarage

- Spain’s 2022-23 almond production is projected at 75,051 (kernel) tonnes, 10% less year-on-year, on 510,584 bearing hectares, non-irrigated taking 428,176 hectares against 82,048 hectares of irrigated, according to the Spanish associations of Nut Growers (Aeofruse) and Handlers (Descalmendra).
- Irrigated plantations may account for 65% of the total volume.
- Organic production takes 20.4% of the total hectarage.
- Frosts and heavy rains hit almond orchards in East and South Spain between April-May, particularly Spanish varieties such as Marcona and Largueta, which bloom later than other varieties.
- However, the Spanish production is expected to recover a strong growth in the following seasons due to rising plantings of irrigated orchards.

May 18  - Vietnam cashew kernel exports decline this April (IHSmarkit)

- January-April shipments running 7.3% behind year ago levels
- Seasonal sales to China 48.9% down from those of a year ago
- Reduced demand last week

- Vietnam’s cashew kernel exports were 5.2% down this April versus the same month in 2021 at 45,508 tonnes. This brought the country’s shipments of cashew kernels in the first four months of 2022 to 156,179 tonnes, a fall of 7.35% from the January-April 2021 period.
- Vietnam’s cashew kernel exports to the US were 3% down last month at 13,064 tonnes whilst its seasonal shipments to this destination were 9.5% lower at 43,484 tonnes. Exports to China fell 31.4% last month to 3,391 tonnes, bringing the seasonal total to this destination to 8,547 tonnes – a decline of 48.9% y/y.
- Vietnam’s cashew shipments to the EU and others this April were 2% down at 32,053 tonnes and its January-April 2022 volume was 7% lower at 104,148 tonnes.

- Ho Chi Minh City-based supplier Golden Bridge observed that the April 2022 volumes were up from those of the previous month and were quite close to those of April 2021, a time in which prices had also moved up as they have recently. The firm added that the market was in silent mode last week with reduced demand and transactions. Prices are struggling to hold the $2.90 level as most buyers are hesitant and would prefer to see more of a discount.

May 18  - Vietnam raises imports of pepper due to disappointing harvest (IHSmarkit)

- 15-18% fall in production expected
- Main suppliers: Cambodia, Brazil and Indonesia

- Vietnam’s imports of pepper grew by 7% year-on-year to 12,105 tonnes this April, black pepper taking 86% against white pepper with 14%, due to a disappointing harvest, according to the Vietnamese Pepper Association (VPA). The main suppliers were Cambodia, Brazil and Indonesia, with 4,709 tonnes, 3,915 tonnes and 1,855 tonnes, respectively. - VPA projects that the 2021-22 production may be around 165,000-175,000 tonnes, 15%-18% less year-on-year and downgrading by 7%-12% a previous estimate, due to the combination of severe drought and outdated orchards.
- Farmers have been discouraged to develop new plantings or raise yield due to low prices in previous seasons and rising production costs for inputs, especially fertilisers.

May 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Almost as expected, the firmer start to the week was followed by the correction. In a range of GBP 25, Sep 22, new 2nd month, traded in moderate volume and tested the support at GBP 1800 before closing just below at GBP 1799 (-17). Thus, Sep follows the march of Jul 22, which was to close, when still the 2nd month, exactly at this level the previous day. Unsurprisingly, the structure also remains loyal, certainly with the assistance of the GBP slightly weaker in the trend and the rolling of positions. The front two spreads Jul/Sep and Sep/Dec trade in discount of -25 and -28 respectively, the rest of the curve remains flat and indecisive.

- May tenders are 4000mt, as expected mostly Nigeria, which is not exactly record breaking. From the origin, we hear that Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire are making plans to regularly announce the origin differential paid by contracting parties. The background, they say, is greater transparency to shore up differentials that have come under pressure with the introduction of LID. One wonders whether such transparency might not have the opposite effect.

May 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The start of the week was bullish from the outset, with a positive opening that held throughout the day. Opening at GBP 1779, trading up to a high of GBP 1809, then closing in the mid-range at GBP 1799.

- Cocoa was thus in line with the commodity market trend: Bloomberg Commodity Index: 129.95 (+1.30%), wheat +5%; coffee +5%; cocoa Ldn & NY+1% and sugar +2%.

- Of significance was the expiry of the May term at midday yesterday. After the May/July22 spread diverged to a discount of GBP 175 over the course of the last few weeks, the spread finally closed at the discount of GBP 112, as further longs with only little open interest left sought to close. Consequently, under 400 lots will physically change hands.

- Cocoa arrivals at Côte d'Ivoire ports as of Sunday totalled 1.84 million tonnes since the start of the season on 1 October, down 3.9% on the previous season.

May 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Even though the cocoa market ended the week a bit firmer again, prices remain in their comfort zone of the past weeks between GBP 1750 and GBP 1850 basis 2nd month. Jul22 closed at GBP 1779, GBP 13 up. On its last full trading day, the front spread recovered but is still GBP 100 in the discount.

- In related developments, another BDU Cameroon passed grading, and another BDU Nigeria was rejected.

- The Committments of Traders show as of Tuesday unsurprisingly a significant reduction in the speculative net long position by a good 24k lots (now 23k lots across both trading venues). Setting the tone here was the New York Managed Money fraction, which accounted for 80% of this long liquidation and shows an almost balanced book with just shy of 4k lots net long, London 19k lots net long. The total position fell to 66k lots net long (-18k lots).

May 13  - Market Briefing: Sugar (IHSmarkit)

- Brazil CS crushing at 23.8 million tonnes by H2 April, 2022-23 output seen at 32.1 million
- US TRQ imports for 2022/23 are projected at 1.379 million STRV
- Pakistan imposes complete sugar exports ban

Production
- Sugarcane crushing Brazil’s CS picked up speed in the second half of April as more mills entered into operation, UNICA data showed. Sugarcane processing reached 23.823 million tonnes, which still reflects a drop of 19.7% from 29.675 million in the same period last year. Total cane crushing during April, the first month of the new 2022/23 crop year, was 29.110 million tonnes, down from 45.340 million last year. Sugar production in Brazil's Centre/South region should reach 32.1 million tonnes in 2022/23; flat on the year but 900,000 tonnes less than in the previous estimate in March, local consultancy Datagro said.

Demand
- US TRQ imports for 2022/23 are projected at 1.379 million STRV by the USDA, with levels set at minimum levels consistent with the WTO and FTA bindings and with a TRQ shortfall projected at 99,208. For 2021/22, TRQ imports are up 159,625 STRV from last month to 1.727 million on the reallocation of the TRQ shortfall. The TRQ shortfall for 2021/22 is now estimated at 70,548 STRV. Imports from Mexico were raised by 170,000 STRV to reflect the recent increase in the "other sugar" export limit made by the Department of Commerce.

Trade
- Pakistan has imposed a "complete ban" on the export of sugar to stabilise its price in the domestic market. This is despite the record sugar crop in 2021/22. Pakistani consumers have been complaining about the shortage of sugar and flour since last month when the government had taken the initiative to reduce the prices of various food items to provide relief during the Muslim fasting month. The shortage was particularly reported in Punjab, where utility stores had run out of sugar, the report added.
-Brazilian sugar mills set prices on the New York Stock Exchange for 17.5% of the next 2023/24 crop, Archer Consulting said.

Price
- Raw sugar futures in New York fell to the lowest level in nearly two months as weak sentiment continued to dominate trading activity. The benchmark raw sugar contract for July delivery shed another 12 points to settle at 18.54 cents per pound on May 10, after hitting its lowest since 16 March at 18.51 cents.
- Meanwhile white sugar futures in London also ended in the red with the benchmark August contract falling by $3.10 to settle at $518.30 per tonne, just above the lower end of the day's $518.00-524.40 range.

May 13  - Market Briefing: Cocoa (IHSmarkit)

- Ivory Coast port arrivals down 4% y/y
-  Brazilian chocolate production up 36% y/y
- Ghanaian cocoa arrivals dropped by 33% y/y

Production
- The Ivory Coast saw cumulative arrivals take a 4% y/y drop by May 8 compared to 7 days ago, when volumes saw a 3.2% y/y fall. Arrivals reached 1.804 million tonnes, while weekly volumes totaled 34,000, compared to 40,000 tonnes last week. This week’s data was also updated following recent data from the cocoa regulator (CCC), which showed arrivals reach 1.770 million tonnes by April 30, down 3.2% y/y.
- Chocolate production in Brazil witnessed a significant recovery in 2021, increasing by 36% y/y as well as exceeding pre-pandemic levels of 2019. In 2021, its industry produced 693,000 tonnes of chocolate, this is compared to 510,000 tonnes in 2020 and 2019’s 559,000 tonnes.

Demand
- Ivory Coast’s cocoa grind rose around 16.7% y/y in April to 49,000 tonnes, data from the exporters’ association GEPEX showed. The total grind from the start of the 2021/22 season in October stood at 364,000 tonnes of beans by the end of the April compared with 344,000 tonnes at the same point last season.

Trade
- Ghanaian cocoa arrivals dropped by 33% y/y, the latest figures from marketing board COCOBOD showed. Ghana’s graded and sealed (G&S) cocoa arrivals stood at 579,000 tonnes by May 5 since the start of the season on October 1, down from 861,000 tonnes in same period the previous season.
- Barry Callebaut CEO’s Peter Boone, said he does not think chocolate product is becoming necessarily overpriced when compared to other supermarket items. He admitted that cocoa had had the biggest impact on chocolate prices, though he didn’t expect this to dent demand.

Price
- Cocoa was mostly lower this week owed to a stronger dollar, which surged to a 19-year high. On May 10, prices moved lower for a fifth session, with London cocoa posting a 1½-month low to £1,758 per tonne. July New York cocoa also fell $10 to $2,445 a tonne. By May 12, New York cocoa slipped to a two-week low of to $2,433 a tonne after having hit a five-month low of $2,421
- A group of European Union parliamentarians have asked the European Commission to open negotiations with Ivory Coast and Ghana to address low cocoa prices this week.

May 13  - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- Vietnamese coffee exports total 157,451 tonnes in April
- Arabica coffee futures rally 8%
- Tenderable robusta stocks rise to 1.59 million bags

Production
- Colombian coffee output will fall to between 12.0 million and 12.5 million 60-kg bags this year because of heavy La Nina rains, said Robert Velez, the head of the National Federation of Coffee Growers (Fedecafe). Coffee output already dropped 9% last year to 12.6 million bags from 13.9 million, because of bad weather and anti-government protests which stymied exports. In 2019 output hit a quarter-century record of 14.8 million bags.

Demand
- Tenderable robusta stocks held in ICE Futures Europe nominated warehouses rose by 185 ten-tonne lots to 9,534 (around 1.589 million 60-kg bags) in the two weeks to 9 May, exchange data showed. Stocks in Antwerp rose by 198 lots to 4,980 lots, or 52% of all certified robusta stocks. It is followed by Amsterdam with 2,316 lots and London (2,073). Despite the recent small rise this is down sharply from 15,659 lots (2.610 million bags) held at the same time last year.

Trade
- Vietnamese coffee exports in April 2022 were 157,451 tonnes (2.624 million 60-kg bags), compared with 211,060 (3.518 million) in March and 132,146 tonnes (2.202 million bags) in the same month last year, customs data showed. This brought total exports in the first seven months of 2021/22 (October/September) to 1.047 million tonnes (17.454 million bags), up from 900,104 (15.002 million) in the same period a year ago.
- Brazil exported 2.560 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in April 2022, down from 3.382 million in the same month last year, exporters association Cecafe said. This was the lowest quantity for April since 2016. Arabica exports declined to 2.425 million bags from 3.046 million, while exports of conilon coffee fell to 134,512 bags from 336,280.

Price
- Arabica coffee futures in New York surged nearly 8% on May 11, in a countertrend rally to the previous strong losses, which saw the July contract hitting a six-month low of 202.30 cents per pound on May 10. Arabica July added 16.10 cents to settle at 219.90 cents per pound, in wide dealings between 204.05 and 220.45 cents. Some attributed the rally to forecasts for the arrival of a strong cold front to Brazil next week, but frost damage at this time of year is rather unlikely. In fact, the market had become technically oversold after falling about 10% during the last month.

May 13  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- Peru’s paprika production down 20%
- Sudan concludes gum Arabic harvest
- Indian coriander seed exports fall in January-February 2022

Production
- Turkey is expected to see fresh garlic production reach a four-year high of 100,000 tonnes this year, with production increasing year-on-year. The new season for Turkish garlic started in early May.
- India’s chilli crop has been harvested and the volume is lower than in the previous season, despite rising acreage, due to pests. In addition, the average quality is poor. Mexico’s chilli crop is expected to be abundant thanks to favourable weather.
- Peru’s paprika output is expected to be 20% lower than in the previous season as growers have cut planted area due to high production costs. Spain’s paprika industry is focused on processing and planting high-quality product and its volume will be low in the long-term.
- Sudan’s gum Arabic harvest has concluded and domestic stocks are completely replenished, industry players starting to estimate the 2021-22 production whose volume is considered as high, trading sources explained this week.
- Sri Lanka’s 2021-22 cloves crop, harvesting of which concluded this February, declined by 60% year-on-year to around 3,000-4,000 tonnes, and 9% less than in the 2019-20 season, due to the combination of heavy rains and high prices for fertilisers.

Demand
- Turkey generated increased overseas buying interest in its fresh garlic last year.
- Logistics issues have prompted gum Arabic buyers in the EU and US to switch from Sudan to alternative origins.
- Export offtake for Indian coriander seed declined in the first two months of this year.

Trade
- In 2021, Turkey exported over 5,000 tonnes of fresh garlic, 106% up y/y. The main destinations were the US, Iraq, Ukraine and Canada.
- Port Sudan is starting to recover its handling activity although sea shipping services are still very unreliable and with high prices, restricting sales to purchasers available to contract several full containers, a well-informed trade source dealing in Sudanese gum Arabic told S&P Global Commodity Insights this week. Although Sudan is the largest global supplier of gum Arabic, EU and US processors have been importing from Chad, Senegal and Nigeria due to social riots and port paralysis in Sudan.
- Indian coriander seed exports fell by 25% y/y in volume to 6,370 tonnes and by 6% in value to $13.8 million in January-February 2022. The main importers of whole coriander seed were Malaysia, the UAE and Nepal, which took 28%, 19% and 11%, respectively,

Price
- Mexico’s chilli prices are expected to remain firm in the mid-term, especially for product which fulfils US maximum residue levels.
- Sudanese gum Arabic prices have fallen to $2,150/tonne fob for Hashab type in April-May with one-month transit shipments, down from $2,450/tonne in February.
- The Indian coriander spot price averaged INR12,200/quintal ($157.8/quintal) at Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 9 May 2022, 3% less than on 11 April.

May 13  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- 1% fall in the US 2022 peanut crop
- The latest Covid-19 lockdowns in China are slowing Philippine sales of banana chips 
- 9% fall in US raisin sales

Production
- Australia’s 2022 macadamia production estimate has been downgraded by 10% to 49,340 in-shell tonnes at 3.5% moisture (52,900 in-shell tonnes at 10% moisture) compared with the initial estimate, due to heavy rainfalls in key origins such as Queensland and New South Wales. Bundaberg, the main origin with 46% of Australia’s crop, was not affected by the severe weather.
- The US 2020 peanut crop is projected at 2.21 million (short) tons on 635,700 hectares, 1% less year-on-year in volume and 2.5% down in acreage.
- Portugal’s 2030 chestnut production is estimated at 78,000 tonnes, 79% more than in 2020 thanks to the expansion in planted area.

Demand
- The demand for banana chips is recovering slightly, especially in Japan and the US, tempering the fall in the China due to current Covid-19 lockdowns.
- Indian and Chinese demand for peanuts is at record levels as processors are suffering a sunflower shortage due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

Trade
- Californian walnut shipments fell by 10% y/y to 67.7 million in-shell basis pounds this April, bringing seasonal sales (September-April) to 517.2 million lbs, 13% less y/y.
- California’s raisin shipments were 20,597 (short) tons this April, 9% less year-on-year, bringing seasonal (August-April) sales to 175,000 tons, 11% less y/y. Exports (including Canada) declined by 24% y/y to 7,080 tons. Japan and Canada were the main importers, accounting for 26% and 7%, respectively.
- The Californian almond and walnut industries are worried about delays in sea shipments, according to a letter sent to major sea shipping companies by senators Dianne Feinstein and Alex Padilla (both in California). They estimate that there are around 1.4 billion pounds of almonds, which must be shipped between May-July 2022. This means around 30,000 containers, and say there is a similar volume of walnuts suffering the same issue.

Price
- Trading sources quoted the following prices for Philippine banana chips in May (fob Davao):
    Banana chips broken, sweetened: $0.87/lb
    Banana chips whole, sweetened: $0.93/lb
    Banana chips whole, unsweetened: $0.95/lb

May 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Wednesday's firming was followed yesterday by a further weak period. The New York-induced weak opening continued into the evening, bringing quotes to the lower end of the 1750-1850 basis 2nd month corridor established over the past few weeks. On the second-to-last full trading day of the May 22 contract, longs bailing at the last minute, open AA trades, and of course pending tender sent the May/Jul22 front spread to a new low of -142. As liquidity fades away, the open May 22 position now stands at 1253 lots. The 2nd month of July 22 tested the support near the 50-day average around GBP 1770 and closed below at GBP 1766, down 25 points.

- Meanwhile, the origin unsurprisingly held back - one is well sold and has no pressure. Price hedges against covers from the origin are thus limited.

May 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After 6 days of declining prices and reaching oversold levels in both markets, the first countermovement occurred yesterday. The first trade in London drove prices up by 20 pounds. NY promptly followed. Closing price in London 1791 GBP (+33), only 4 pounds below its daily high, and NY +44 USD with a closing price of 2489 USD (15 USD below its daily high of 2504).

- The cause of yesterday's correction is clear: a counter-covering of the high managed money short positions built up during the last down market. For clarity we looking forward to the COT report on Friday. With a daily rise of 2%, cocoa followed the general upward movement in commodities after some significant declines over the last week.

- Yesterdays Bloomberg Commodity Index +2.25% EU wheat +1.7%, Ldn coffee +8%; oil +5.5%. 

May 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With no significant new market news, the weakness in the cocoa market continued. Immediately after the opening, renewed selling pressure brought prices further down to the the numerical support 120-day moving average support level at GBP 1750. Thereby triggering new buy positions and a slight recovery in prices.

- Closing price for the July position GBP 1758 (-GBP6).  Over the past five trading days, we have witnessed a decline in cocoa price in Euro of approx. -7% and in GBP at -5%. 2% less in GBP terms due to the existing weakness of the British Pound. The front spread lost another GBP -16 now trading at (GBP -90). The structure thus remains in carry for the current crop.

- The new main crop continues to trade at a GBP 8 discount. At GBP 1758 we are now at the lower end of an upward channel that has been in place since March. If this is broken, we see the next support points at GBP 1720 and then GBP 1700. If the channel is maintained, a renewed upward movement to GBP 1855 by the end of May is possible.

May 11 - Sugar market heading to large surplus, bearish price outlook seen - StoneX
The global sugar market will see a relatively large surplus of 4.1 million tonnes in the new season starting in October as a 5% output growth in Asia will more than compensate a small rise in demand seen at 1.1%, broker and analyst StoneX said on Tuesday. The larger Asian production, along with expectations of a better crop in Brazil, will likely drive prices lower toward the end of 2022 and in the first quarter of 2023, StoneX said in a presentation in New York which this week hosts a series of seminars and social interactions among sugar market players.

May 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- In reaction to the weak close on Friday evening in NY, the weak phase continued in London yesterday. Immediately after the opening, selling pressure from liquidations of managed money longs brought the market to new 2-week lows (GBP 1757 Jul 22).

- The weakening British pound against the USD slowed the slide to some extent, but prices still lost around 1.3% for the day, closing at 2 Jul 22 GBP 1764 (-23).

- Five trading days before the expiration of the May 22 contract, another 4 BDUs Nigeria were successfully graded yesterday. Without surprise, the front spread continued to lose (-74). The structure thus remains in carry for the current crop, with only the new main crop contracts trading at the GBP 8 discount.

- All in all, the dominating factors are less fundamentally driven, but more by forex trading and adjustments of speculative positions. There is little news from the origin.

- Côte d'Ivoire arrivals are at 1,804 million mt (-4% below last year).

May 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- As the last trading week began, so it ended - with prices continuing to fall. For the 2nd position, the trading week ended in total for London with -1.1% at GBP 1787 and for New York with -2.9% at USD 2492, with the difference Ldn vs NY (1.8%) largely resulting from the strengthening of the USD vs. the British pound.

- After the price slumps of recent weeks, the Commitment of Traders figures reported on Tuesday evening and published on Friday indicate a stronger rebuilding of net long positions. Net long positions Ldn and NY combined increased by 17.9k lots from 66.05k to 83.9k lots.

- Whereas the open interest and thus the volume in cocoa decreased again in the last weeks. A clear market trend is still not apparent. However, we are noting that in the last price movements there was no downward breakout of the lows, while the highs are always quoted higher. We continue to observe this trend.

May 06  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics ( IHSmarkit )

- 7% fall in India’s turmeric production
- 58% increase in Peruvian ginger exports
- 2% fall in Indian turmeric prices

Production
- The 2022-23 turmeric crop is forecast at 1,101,000 tonnes, 7% less year-on-year, although the planted area has increased by 20-25% y/y to 353,000-368,000 hectares. The average yield has plummeted by 30% y/y as heavy rains have hit plantations in some regions, offsetting area expansion. The 2022-23 turmeric crop is forecast at 1,101,000 tonnes, 7% less year-on-year.
- Mexico’s 2021 honey crop has risen by 17% y/y to 63,360 tonnes thanks to bumper crops in Yucatán, Campeche, Quintana Roo and Chiapas (South East), according to the government. Meanwhile, a strong fall in 2022 is expected due to drought.

Demand
- The latest Chinese Covid-19 restrictions have halted demand for imported spices, especially in the area around Shanghai, hitting Vietnamese sales of pepper and cassia and Indonesian nutmeg exports.

Trade
- ndia’s global sales of turmeric reached 20,995 tonnes, worth $35.39 million, in January-February 2022, 15% less y/y in volume and 20% more in value. The main importers were the UAE, Malaysia and Morocco, taking 12%, 8% and 7%, respectively.
- India’s pepper exports fell by 13% y/y in volume to 3,090 tonnes, worth $15.5 million (+3% y/y) in January-February 2022. The US was the main importer, accounting for 28% of the total.
- Mexico’s honey exports reached 1,528 tonnes, worth $6.2 million, in January 2022, up from 524 tonnes valued at $1.6 million. The only relevant importers were Germany and the US with 398 tonnes, and 125 tonnes, respectively.
- Peruvian ginger exports rose by 58% y/y in volume to 11,107 tonnes and fell by 19% in value to $14.0 million in January-February 2021. The US and the Netherlands were the main importers, accounting for 54% and 19% of the exported volume in January-February 2022.

Prices
- The Indian spot fob polished turmeric price averaged INR8,200 ($108.1) per quintal at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, South Central) on 28 April, 2% less than on 4 April. The updated daily futures market prices on NCDEX were:

    INR8,738/quintal for deliveries in May 2022 on 27 April, 3% less than on 28 March.
    INR8,854/quintal for deliveries in June 2022 on 27 April, 2% less.
    INR8,970/quintal for deliveries in July 2022 on 27 April, 2% less.
    INR9,086/quintal for deliveries in August 2022 on 27 April, 5% less than on 1 April.

May 06  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts ( IHSmarkit )

- Brazil set for rise in peanut output despite earlier drought
- Frost cuts peanut crop in Argentina
- Spot demand for cashews is picking up in Europe

Production
- Brazil’s total 2022 in-shell peanut production is pegged at 910,000 tonnes versus 851,000 tonnes in 2021. The 2022 total kernels output is estimated at 682,500 tonnes against 638,250 tonnes in 2021. These figures were presented at last week’s International Peanut Forum (IPF) in Budapest. The 2022 y/y increase could have been more substantial but expectations were lowered by drought in parts of Brazil last November and December.
- Argentina’s 2021-22 peanut crop which is being harvested now is estimated at 1,278,389 tonnes compared with 1,527,522 tonnes in 2020-21. Repeated instances of frost from the end of March to mid-April created major problems. The figure for 2021-22 might have to be lowered further over the coming weeks and the final result should be known by the end of July. Another problem is that due to the global chaos over fuel supplies (arising largely from the Russia-Ukraine conflict) there is a shortage of crude oil for tractors and other farm machinery, so Argentine peanut farmers are unable to continue harvesting and/or deliver peanuts to processing plants.
- Vietnam's new cashew crop is mostly now finished but both volumes and quality are reduced due to daily heavy rains. With the disappointing cashew crops in Vietnam and Cambodia, and news from West Africa that total cashew crops might be down, world cashew supply is expected to be stable or slightly lower than last season.

Demand
- European nut traders and brokers report that spot demand for cashews is increasing for buyers to fill gaps between shipments. They feel that this shows consumer demand remains strong, despite obvious concerns such as rising inflation, fuel shortages, freight issues etc. At local level in Vietnam, cashew suppliers said there was an increase in volumes traded at the end of April with more buyers returning to the market and accepting higher prices. Chinese buyers also came back and purchased quite heavily, Vietnam suppliers reported.
- European nut traders and brokers also view macadamia demand as picking up of late as lower prices tempt buyers back.
- Global peanut industry sources at the IPF raised concerns over the potential impact of escalating inflation on demand although for the time being, demand is high, as shown in export figures (see Trade below).

Trade
- Official estimates are for Brazilian peanut exports to reach 240,000 tonnes this year versus 264,000 tonnes in 2021 and in 2020. However, the export figure for 2022 is now in doubt as Russia and Ukraine normally account for around 50% of Brazil’s peanut exports, 40% of this being to Russia usually.
- In the first three months of 2022 Argentina exported a record 176,473 tonnes of peanuts versus 173,031 tonnes in the same period of 2021.

Price
- Ho Chi Minh City-based supplier Golden Bridge observed that at the end of April Vietnam WW320 cashew prices have jumped $0.20/lb to around $2.90/lb fob. IHS Markit data as of May 6 listed Vietnam WW320s on an EXW UK basis at £5,247/tonne ($6,537/tonne).
- Farmer stock peanut prices in Brazil are declining on a weekly basis and the country’s farmers are now receiving prices which are below the production costs, it was stated at the IPF event.
- However, on an internationally traded level the general expectation is for world peanut export prices to increase due to a multitude of factors, including rising energy costs and high freight rates.

May 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Both markets continued to weaken yesterday and currently seem to breathe a sigh of relief. The Jul 22 in London posted a loss of 21 GBP before the Bank of England's 25 basis point interest increase knocked the British pound down. While the rate adjustment did not come as a surprise, it triggered a sharp loss against the USD and EUR.

- The GBP lost over 2% against the USD and over 1% against the EUR. The resulting support of the markets stopped a further downward movement. The close was at the lows of the day at GBP 1797 basis Jul 22, still 20 points above the technical support of the 50-day moving average (GBP 1776).

- The front spread ran to a new low while four fresh Nigeria BDUs and a couple of SDUs passed grading. Technicians are now keeping an eye on the trend line at the highs marked in the past weeks, which would allow upward room to GBP 1855 until the end of the month.

May 05  - Brazil robusta coffee harvest picks up, crop seen positively (Reuters)

 - Harvest work in robusta coffee farms in Brazil, the world's largest coffee grower, is picking up as more fields reach maturity, while market players see the new crop as positive both in terms of size and quality.
- Most of Brazil's and the world's coffee production is of arabica, a milder type and the choice of coffee chains such as Starbucks. Robusta beans have a stronger taste and are mostly used by the instant coffee industry. Robusta production has been growing in Brazil in recent years as trees are more resistant to heat and dryness compared to arabica. Brazil is the world's No. 2 producer of robusta after Vietnam.
"From October until now we had good moisture, the trees are in good shape. All indications point to a better crop than last season," said Luiz Carlos Bastianello, head of Cooabriel, the largest robusta coffee co-op in Brazil based in Espirito Santo, the number 1 robusta state.

- Brazil's food supply agency Conab sees the robusta crop growing 4.1% this year to nearly 17 million 60-kg bags. Private estimates see a larger number around 20 million bags. Cooabriel received only around 30,000 bags so far from associated farmers, but it expects to receive a total of 1.8 million bags, 300,000 bags more than in 2021. Bastianello said that much of the robusta crop will stay in Brazil this year, rather than being exported.
"The local market is paying well," he said.
- Local roasters have increased the share of robusta beans in their blends, trying to escape high arabica prices.
- Coffee exporters association Cecafe said in its April report that robusta exports fell 64% year-on-year.
- Robusta harvest has also started in Rondonia, the 2o largest producer, where output is seen growing 10% to 2.5 million bags.

May 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After a strong performance and GBP 100 rally since 26/04/22, the market consolidated yesterday on relatively light volume compared to the previous day. The July 22 traded in a GBP 1817 / 1845 range, with price hedging against origin cover and speculative buying joining hands. The July 22 ended the day GBP -15 at GBP 1819.

- A week before the May 22 expired, it corrected sharply (on admittedly low volume) to close GBP -35 at GBP 1739. Rumour has it that the origin continues to sit on unfixed volumes and is now finally happy to take the current levels. The May / July 22 spread is trading down to a low of GBP -85, closing GBP -79/-81.

- The Bank of England is deciding today on a possible further rate adjustment, which would be the 4th consecutive hike. The market expects an adjustment from 0.25% to 1%, the highest rate since 2009!

May 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Not entirely surprisingly, the London market followed the previous day's strong performance in NY on yesterday's trading day. Opening GBP +14 weaker than expected (GBP +30), the market nevertheless climbed to new 12-week highs of GBP 1847 / July 22. At the upper end of the range, hedge pressure from the origin put a lid on it all. Closing July 22 GBP +24 at GBP 1834.

- Surely a reaction to the large specs / funds position shifts that had New York starting the week firm on Monday. Volume was more than respectable with just under 47,000 lots gross in London and should attract visitors in the form of day traders. The next technical resistance we see is GBP 1876, the year-to-date high from mid-February.

- Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as of 01.05.22 at 1.807 mt vs. 1.866 mt from last year (-3.2%)

May 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With New York flying solo at the start of the week, prices rose steadily throughout the day. The July 22 NY traded in a range of $ 2563 / 2610, thus also breaking through the next resistance at $ 2600. Closing price $ +37 at $ 2604 / +1.4 %. Certainly a reaction of the massive expansion of the speculative short position of the managed money faction. As of the reporting deadline of 26.04., the specs / funds added almost 21,000 lots of speculative shorts.

- The question remains: after last week's correction of almost GBP 80 / $ 130, how much has already been liquidated? The little-changed open interest does not suggest too much and could therefore open the door for further covering against the short position.

- Exports of cocoa beans from Côte d'Ivoire at the end of the main harvest are a good 12% below last year. Exports of semi-finished products were almost unchanged at -0.2%.

May 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- A mix of origin related sales, a firm British pound and isolated profit taking kept the market in check on Friday in a 22-pound range basis Jul22. This further saw tentative speculative long liquidations and industrial buying interest oppose and neutralize each other. In addition, the end of the month and the upcoming holiday long weekend in many countries may have contributed.

- As a result, London ended the month of April 2022 with a loss of GBP -3 at GBP 1806, which still resulted in a volume of 32k lots. Unsurprisingly, the front May/Jul22 spread took center stage here with around half of the day's volume, which continued to diverge to GBP -66 (close -55) as May 22 nears its mid-month expiration.

- London remains closed today.

Apr 29 - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- Colombian coffee production at 914,000 60-kg bags in March
- US green coffee stocks rose by 54,950 60-kg bags in March
- Ugandan coffee exports in March 2022 fell by 16.4% to 478,023 60-kg bags

Production
- Colombian production of washed arabica coffee in March 2022 reached 914,000 60-kg bags, down 13.0% from 1.050 million in the same month last year, the National Coffee Federation (Fedecafe) said. This brought total production in the first six months of 2021/22 (October/September) to 6.238 million bags, down 17.7% from 7.583 million a year ago.
- Tenderable robusta stocks held in ICE Futures Europe nominated warehouses fell by 37 ten-tonne lots to 9,349 (around 1.558 million 60-kg bags) in the two weeks to 21 April. Stocks in Antwerp fell by 24 lots to 4,782 lots, or 51% of all certified robusta stocks. This was followed by Amsterdam with 2,316 lots and London (2,073). This was down sharply from 14,983 lots (2.497 million bags) held at the same time last year.

Demand
- US green coffee stocks in port warehouses rose by 54,950 60-kg bags during March 2022 to reach 5,820,298 bags at the end of the month, according to the Green Coffee Association (GCA). Stocks were up 2.5% from 5,679,162 bags at the same time in 2021. This was the first increase since August 2021. Green coffee stocks had fallen for six consecutive months previously.
- US coffee consumption outside the home - e.g. in offices or coffee shops - increased by 8% since this time last year, while consumption of espresso-based beverages has increased by 30% since the start of the pandemic, indicating both increases in commercial preparation and overall industry growth, according to the NCA.

Trade
- Ugandan coffee exports in March 2022 fell by 16.4% to 478,023 60-kg bags from 571,799 bags in the same month last year. This was slightly above the 430,000 bags projected last month. Shipments included 360,229 bags of robusta beans and 117,794 bags of arabicas. This brought total exports in the first six months of 2021/22 to 2,878,115 bags, still up 0.7% from 2,859,563 in the same period last year due to strong shipments in the first three months of the crop year.
- Costa Rican coffee exports in March 2022 totaled 136,437 60-kg bags, down 18.3% y/y, while Honduran coffee exports rose to 889,292 60-kg bags in March 2022.
- Brazilian green coffee exports amounted to 3.385 million 60-kg bags in March 2022, down 15.9% from 4.027 million bags in the same month last year, data from the Trade Ministry showed.

Price
- A very mixed month for coffee futures saw May arabica start off April at four-month highs of 232.25 cents.
- Around the same time, July robustas were trading between a three-week low of $2,071-2,120, amid favourable outlooks for 2022/23 robusta crops in both Vietnam and Brazil.
- During the rest of the month, prices see-sawed owed to significant volatility. July arabica rose as high as 237.70 cents on April 12, gaining support from a strong Brazilian real and a resumption in declines in stocks held in ICE warehouses. However, prices then fell as low as 217.60 cents on April 21, before bouncing back after the market had become technically oversold and ripe for an upward correction. Towards the end of April, demand-side concern, eventually drove coffee lower, with robusta hitting a seven-week low of on April 25, trading between $2,056-2,110 range.

Apr 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- While the week began with a correction to levels just above GBP 1740 in response to weak US grinds, the market rallied strongly as the week progressed. Yesterday was no exception. The July 22 broke through GBP 1800 resistance and traded to highs of GBP 1810, closing GBP +27 at GBP 1809. Isolated hedge pressure has so far continued to hold off further strengthening. The quite "new" shorts from the last COT report in NY have probably gradually disappeared.

- The continued weakness of the British pound provided further support all week. The May / July 22 spread is now trading at a discount of GBP -48 / -50, and there are no worries about near-term availability of  cocoa for the time being (after all, the market is always right). Surprising, since a large deficit (depending on market participants) has been tried to be sold for months. No Comment!

Apr 28  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- 13% fall in the Indian sesame seed production
- Givaudan reported robust results in Q1 2022 thanks to high demand for essential oils
- Gradual rise in Indian guar gum prices

Production
- India’s 2021-22 cumin seed crop is expected to plummet to around 600,000-650,000 tonnes (up to 30% less y/y) as farmers drastically cut planted hectares, after prices hit rock-bottom in the previous season.
- India’s 2021-22 sesame production is expected to reach 708,000 tonnes, 13% less y/y due to unfavourable weather.
- Paraguay’s 2022-23 sesame seed production is expected to reach 30,000 tonnes, downgrading by 40% the initial estimate due to severe drought.
- Zanzibar’s (Tanzania) 2021-22 clove crop reached 8,000 tonnes (+33% y/y) due to expansion in planted area, being close to the government goal of reaching 10,000 tonnes and 5 million trees in 2025.

Demand
- Home cooking trends continue after Covid-19 lockdowns, increasing sales for multinational processors of essential oils and spices. The Swiss essential oil and flavour company Givaudan has reported that its sales reached CHF1.78 billion ($1.88 billion) in Q1 2022, 4.6% more year-on-year, having negotiated price increases to offset rising production. In addition, the Mexican chilli processor Tajin has invested $49 million to double its manufacturing capacity and raising sales to the Middle East markets.

Trade
- The US trade department (ITA) is set to fix dumping retaliatory tariffs on imports of Argentinian, Brazilian, Indian and Vietnamese honey, after publishing a list of companies with retaliatory tariff rates due to anti-dumping decision.
- ITA will impose average retaliatory tariffs on these origins based on the previous dumping rates.
- Indian sesame seed exports were 30,820 tonnes, worth $58.4 million, in January-February 2022, 15% less y/y in volume and 28% less in value. The main importers were South Korea, Indonesia and Taiwan, which took 8%, 7% and 7%, respectively.
- India’s guar gum exports rose by 33% y/y in volume to 41,000 tonnes valued at $80 million in January-February 2022, up from $39 million in January-February 2021. The US, Russia and Germany accounted for 31%, 18% and 12%, respectively.
- Argentina’s international honey sales reached 8,850 tonnes, stagnant year-on-year, valued at $31.8 million, 15% more y/y, in January-February 2022. The US was the main importer, accounting for 70%.
- Brazil’s honey exports fell by 38% y/y to 5,520 tonnes and by 28% in value to $20.9 million in the same period.
- The US and Germany were the main importers, taking 73% and 20%, respectively.
- Vietnam’s pepper exports in Q1 2022 fell by 12% year-on-year in volume to 53,778 tonnes and by 40.3% in value to $250.8 million.
- The US, Egypt and India were the main importers, accounting for 28%, 8% and 7%, respectively.

Prices
- India’s guar gum spot price averaged INR12,500/quintal ($163.5/quintal) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 25 April 2022, 5% more than on 28 March.
- India’s cumin seed spot prices averaged INR21,950 ($287.6/quintal) INR20,890/quintal at the Unjha market (Gujarat, North West) on 18 April 2022, 6% more than on 21 March.
- Mexican honey prices have stopped increasing but remain relatively high. On April 20, Mexican Yucatan honey was quoted by IHS Markit data at $4,200 per tonne cif northwest Europe.
- The average fob export price for Zanzibar’s cloves reached $7,439/tonne in the 2021-22 season, 41% more year-on-year.

Apr 28  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- Iranian pistachio crop forecast downgraded due to frosts
- Australian seasonal almond shipments 13% ahead but US seasonal almond shipments nearly 15% down
- Prunes set for upward pricing pressure

Production
 - Australia’s 2022 almond output is expected to increase by 13% to 140,000 tonnes.
- Iran’s 2022-23 season pistachio crop might have lost around 60,000-80,000 tonnes due to widespread frosts across an estimated 180,000-200,000 hectares of orchards, resulting in a volume of about 140,000-160,000 tonnes. This would be similar to the 2021-22 season and 33-45% less than in the 2020-21 season, the most recent ‘on-year’ prior to the current one.
- Argentina’s 2021-22 peanut crop estimate has been downgraded to 1.2 million tonnes, 8% less than the previous forecast, and 6% less year-on-year, according to the USDA. In addition, the USDA projects that Argentina’s 2022-23 (April-March) peanut crop may increase by 4% year-on-year to 1.25 million tonnes on 380,000 hectares, 2% less y/y.
- France’s 2022-23 prune crop might fall by 44% year-on-year to 9,000 tonnes due to severe frost, after suffering a dramatic fall in the previous season also due to frosts.
- Chile’s 2022 prune crop is estimated at 75% up y/y to 70,000 tonnes but this is not reflected in its prune export offers (see Price, below).

Demand
- Export demand for US pecans is significantly lower this season (see Trade below).
- Australian almond exporters however, are enjoying a robust season with seasonal sales comfortably ahead over the March 2021-February 2022 period versus the same stage last season.
- Logistics issues are hampering exports of US almonds, but domestic demand is close to what it was a year ago (see Trade below).
- Chilean walnut exports have increased in the 2021-22 season (see Trade below).

Trade
- Global sales of US pecans were 6.3 million in-shell basis pounds this March, 67% less y/y, bringing seasonal shipments (September-March) to 51.9 million lbs, 37% less y/y. Shelled US pecan shipments fell by 46% y/y to 2.6 million lbs in March 2022.
- Australia’s almond shipments reached 2,720 kernel weight equivalence (KWE) tonnes in February 2022, 7% more y/y. Seasonal sales (March-February) totalled 86,870 tonnes (+13% y/y). In-shell exports totalled 50,749 tonnes in March 2021-February 2022, 62% more y/y. China and India were the main importers with 26,870 tonnes (+89% y/y) and 23,390 tonnes (+40% y/y), respectively. Shelled sales fell by 6% y/y to 51,340 tonnes. China was the main purchaser with 16,660 tonnes, 3% more y/y.
- US almond shipments for the first eight months of the 2021-22 season (August 2021-March 2022) were nearly 15% behind y/y at 1.683 billion lbs versus 1.978 billion lbs previously. Seasonal export shipments were 19.4% down at 1.166 billion lbs but domestic volumes were only 2.8% behind y/y at 516.97 million lbs. Moreover, the March 2022 domestic shipments total of 71.84 million pounds was slightly up from the same month a year ago (71.25 million lbs).
- The USDA has suggested that Argentine peanut exports might fall by 5% y/y to 900,000 tonnes between the 2021-22 and the 2022-23 seasons.
- Chilean walnut exports closed the 2021-22 season (21 March-20 March) with 148,150 in-shell equivalent tonnes, 13% more year-on-year. In-shell exports reached 81,610 tonnes, 26% more y/y. India and Turkey were the main importers.

Price
- Trade price indications on 20 April put Chilean prunes at high levels despite a good crop. For example, 30-40 pitted was listed by one broker at $5.00-5.15/kg fob; 40-50 pitted $4.90-5.05/kg fob; and 50-60 pitted $4.80-4.95/kg fob.
- US almonds continue to command high prices. On 26 April US Non Pareil Select 23-25 shelled was quoted at $5,975 per tonne cif northwest Europe and the standard Sheller Run at $4,056/tonne cif northwest Europe.

Apr 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After a strong close the previous day, yesterday trading continued in its trend. Market open at GBP 1771, daily low at GBP 1765 and a high at GBP 1799, to closed in the evening at GBP 1782 vs. the July 22 position. The Afternoon saw no significant outbreak from this price range of GBP 34, which was in its full traded by midday, with only 2,000 lots traded by this time. The GBP 1800 price point was thus retested, but ultimately lacked any further buying interest to allow a breakout from our ongoing GBP 1700 to GBP 1800 range.

- Without any new significant data from the US, the dollar nevertheless strengthened further by 1% against basketof currencies yesterday, taking our EUR/USD exchange rate ever closer to USD/EUR parity. Currently EUR/USD at 1.05.

Apr 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The morning selling pressure brought prices immediately after the opening to just above GBP 1740. The Jul22 marked a new 3-week low at GBP 1743, i.e. below the technical support of the 200-day moving average (GBP 1750). Value based buying interest and the weaker British pound/the firm USD (GBPUSD 1.26, last seen in Jul20) gave London a tailwind from then on to gain around GBP 30. Closing 21 points up (July 22 GBP 1771).

- The structure broadly ran together slightly, albeit only GBP 5 (Jul 22/Sep 22), while the front-end May/Jul22 spread held up in light of ongoing gradings and remained unchanged, yesterday a re-grade BDU Nigeria passed inspection, tomorrow two more BDUs are under the knife.

Apr 26  - Kenya to Offer 149.9 Tons of Mild Arabica Coffee at Auction on May 4
- - Kenya will offer at least 149.9 metric tons of mild arabica coffee beans at an auction on May 5, the Nairobi Coffee Exchange said Tuesday. The auction was pushed back one day, from the May 4 date scheduled, due to a public holiday.

- The auction will take an annual break from May 4 to June 28 due to low volumes between coffee harvesting seasons, according to Daniel Mbithi, the auction house chief executive.

- At the last auction held on April 20, the average price across all coffee grades fell by 1% to $226.39 for a 50-kilogram bag compared with $228.73 at the prior auction on April 12, the NCE said. A total of 9,126 bags were sold, down from 9,087 bags at the prior auction, the auction house said. Almost all Kenyan arabica coffee is sold at the auction, with most destined for export. However, direct sales are
allowed.
- Kenya's arabica auctions use the New York ICE futures index as their benchmark.

Apr 26  - Vietnam’s imports of raw cashew nuts sharply lower in March

- Seasonal volumes 31% lower
- Rains spoil crop potential
- Prices rose ‘aggressively’ last week

- Vietnam’s imports of raw cashew nuts (RCNs) plunged 33.6% this March to 314,306 tonnes. This brought its seasonal (January-March 2022) total RCN imports to 509,430 tonnes – a decline of 31%.

- Vietnam’s March 2022 RCN imports from Ivory Coast fell 81% to 5,757 tonnes while its January-March total from this origin were 30.27% down at 50,619 tonnes.

- Vietnam’s RCN imports from Cambodia were 27% down last month at 267,727 tonnes and 26.8% behind for the first three months of this year at 301,607 tonnes.
Its RCN imports from other markets declined 46% this March to 40,822 tonnes and by 38.38% in the January-March period to 157,204 tonnes. Ho Chi Minh City-based Golden Bridge remarked that the continued slide in volumes was predicted due to the tough global market. In addition, the company noted that heavy rains drastically reduced the size of Vietnam’s latest cashew crop.

- Prices were “increasing aggressively” last week on strong demand for whole cashews and broken pieces. WW320 jumped $0.10 further to $2.90/lb fob from good quality packers. Golden Bridge suggested that prices might remain around $2.85-2.95/lb fob in the coming weeks.

Apr 26  - Indian sesame prices stabilised with exports at minimum levels

- Spot price stabilised at INR11,950/quintal
- 13% fall in the Indian production

- India’s new sesame seed (whitish) spot price averaged INR11,950/quintal ($156.3/quintal) at the Unjha wholesale market (Gujarat, North East) on 25 March 2022, stagnant month-on-month.

- India’s 2021-22 sesame production is expected to reach 708,000 tonnes, 13% less y/y due to unfavourable weather.

- Indian exports were 30,820 tonnes, worth $58.4 million, in January-February 2022, 15% less y/y in volume and 28% less in value. The main importers were South Korea, Indonesia and Taiwan, which took 8%, 7% and 7%, respectively.

- Imports reached 7,335 tonnes in January-February 2022, 34% less y/y. The main suppliers were Sudan and Nigeria, which accounted for 93% and 4%, respectively.

- The daily futures market prices on NCDEX were:
    Deliveries in April 2022 closed at INR11,700/quintal on 20 April 2022, 2% less than on 21 March
    INR11,940/quintal for deliveries in May on 22 April 2022, INR60 more than on 23 March
    INR11,980/quintal for deliveries in June on 22 April, INR60 more
    INR12,025/quintal for deliveries in July on 22 April, 2% more

Apr 26 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- A further firm US$ continued to put pressure on prices yesterday (especially in NY). The July 22 in NY broke through the important US$ 2500 support, ending the day at US$ -67 at US$ 2487. London also came under pressure, but with much less force. Here some price fixing towards GBP 1700 / 1st month provided the last bit of support. July 22 LDN ended the day GBP -20 at GBP 1750. The arbitrage now converged to GBP -207. Further grading is now also affecting the near May / July 22 spread, which widened yesterday to GBP -35.

- Commitment of traders as of 19.04 did not cause much of a stir at first glance (net change +588 lots). Managed money in NY, however, increased gross by almost 5k lots of fresh shorts. A relatively large increase, while the other positions hardly moved.

- Ivory Coast arrivals 24.04: 1.767 mt vs. 1.816 mt (-2.7%).

Apr 25  - Sugar futures collapse in final session of the week
- Raw sugar futures in New York ended sharply lower on Friday (April 22) as the market continues to show significant volatility.
- The benchmark raw sugar contract for July delivery ended down 60 points at 19.21 cents per pound, after falling to a three-week low of 19.17 cents. The intraday high was touched at 19.78 cents. Market sources cited fund liquidation amid risk off sentiment caused by the expectation of several interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve further down the road.
- The front-month May contract shed 63 points to 19.24 cents per pound and the rest of the board ended with losses between 16 and 59 points.
- White sugar futures in London also suffered sizeable losses with the most-active August contract falling by $10.60 to settle at $530.50 per tonne, just above the lower end of the day’s $529.20-540.40 range.


Apr 25  - Healthy demand supports US blackberry prices

- IHS Markit’s GTA data shows that conventional blackberry prices cif reached $1,900 per tonne compared with organic at $2,000/tonne in February 2022.
- According to the USDA’s data, on 19 April 2022, the shipping point price of central America imports (ports of entry South Florida), flats 12 6-oz cups with lids, was low $21.75, 1% down y/y; high $24, 4% up y/y/. Market demand was very good. Fruits are Guatemala origin via air.
- Mexico crossing through Arizona, California and Texas was low $12 for the same specification, 33% down y/y; high $16, 27% down y/y.
- On the retail market, US national weighted average price was $3.02 for 5.6-6 oz package, 1% up y/y; organic at $3.93, 3% up y/y. Organic is 30% higher than conventional.

Apr 25  - Indian cumin prices start a bullish trend due to low crop
- India’s cumin seed spot prices averaged INR21,950 ($287.6/quintal) at the Unjha market (Gujarat, North West) on 18 April 2022, 6% more than on 21 March.
- Cumin seed exports reached 14,724 tonnes valued at $31.5 million in January 2022, 158 tonnes less year-on-year in volume and 8% more y/y in value, according to customs data. Bangladesh and the UAE were the main importers, accounting for 27% and 11%, respectively.
- The updated daily futures market price on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) was:

    INR22,455/quintal for deliveries in April 2022 on 14 April 2022, 10% more than on 15 March
    INR22,305/quintal for deliveries in May 2022 on 14 April 2022, 8% more
    INR22,520/quintal for deliveries in June 2022 on 14 April 2022, 6% more
    INR22,735/quintal for deliveries in July 2022 on 14 April, 3% more
    INR22,950/quintal for deliveries in August 2022 on 14 April, 6% more

Apr 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Following the first three indecisive trading days of last week, Friday set the tone with a clearer daily direction: downwards. Prices were under pressure from the start. Triggered by the latest comments from the Fed and Bank of England regarding further interest rate hikes in 2022, this led to a strengthening of both currencies overnight. USD stronger than GBP.

- Also leading the way (for the day) were the Q1 US Grind. -2.77% year to year and -1.65% quarter to quarter. Coming in below the average industry expectation of +1%, this  consequently led to a sharper fall in the US cocoa market vs. London.

- The day closed for July22 futures respectively: Ldn at GBP 1770 (-18) and NY USD 2554 (-38).  CAA (Cocoa Association of Asia) figures followed in the afternoon with -0.25% year to year and -7.75% quarter to quarter reported.

Apr 23  - Asia Coffee-Vietnam trade muted on tight supply; prices fall in Indonesia (Reuters)

- Trade in Vietnam's coffee market was hit by a lack of beans at the end of the crop season, while prices dipped in Indonesia on rising supplies and low demand, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold coffee COFVN-DAK at VND40,300-41,000 ($1.77-$1.79) per kg, little changed from last week's VND40,500-41,500 range.
"Buyers are turning to rival Brazil and Indonesia for beans as stocks are almost empty here," said a trader based in Dak Lak province.
"The scarcity is the reason that is keeping prices from falling."

- The London ICE May contract LRCc2 settled up $4 at $2,092 per tonne on Wednesday.

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta COFVN-G25-SAI at a discount of $220 per tonne, compared with $250-$260 a week ago.

- In Indonesia's Lampung province, Sumatran robusta beans prices fell as new supplies came in while demand was tepid this week, traders said. The beans were offered at a $170 discount to May and June contracts, down from last week's $150 discount to the same contracts, one trader said. Another trader based in the Lampung province offered a $220 discount to July contract, down from a $200 discount last week.
"There aren't many buyers this week, while more new beans are arriving from the mini harvest. It seems some exporters are also trying to sell off their old stock first," one of the traders said.
"Many farmers just want to sell their beans quickly cause they need money for the Eid al-Fitr festivities," a Lampung-based trader said, referring to the holiday in May.

Apr 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The sideways movement of the market continued yesterday. The July 22 tested the GBP 1800 resistance (high yesterday GBP 1795), as it had all week, without breaking it. And it then closed uninspired and almost unchanged at GBP 1788 / GBP +2. The near May / July 22 is sucking on a discount around GBP -30, clearly in carry.

- North American grinding figures released yesterday after-hours show a decline of -2.7% vs. Q1 2021. More or less unchanged milling was expected.

- The Asian figures today will round off the picture accordingly. A clear impulse on the market would be desirable, but is rather unlikely.

Apr 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It could almost be expected that the cocoa market would compensate for the losses of the previous day. This succeeded at least in part, when the speculative longs timidly showed up again in the market, which they had recently increasingly turned their backs in light of economic uncertainty. This, coupled with industrial buying or-ders, brought a firm opening that set the tone for the day. The Jul22 tested the 1800, but the support was not enough to stake new claims. Thus, the close was at GBP 1786 (+18) Jul22. A clear trend is far from apparent, a sideways phase may well emerge while the specs lay their cards.

- The currency is also swinging back and forth, the EUR is trading slightly firmer against the USD and GBP, but that too only marginally.

- Today, the American, tomorrow the Asian grinding figures are published - perhaps these give an impetus and a little more orientation.

Apr 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After NY was on its own in terms of cocoa on Easter Monday, London opened immediately 20 points below Thursday's close. This, although even a reaction of GBP -30 had been expected. The second month Jul 22 broke through the 50-day average (GBP 1781). Stop orders were increasingly triggered on the way south, and sufficient support was found just above GBP 1760, which ended the downtrend. The July 22 closed at GBP 1768 and thus still GBP 35 in the red. In the structure, the three front spreads are now trading in discount, although no one likes to commit to a clear trend in view of the past volatile weeks.

- Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire last week were 30-45k mt (depending on whose statement you follow), well below the previous year (65k mt). However, these figures may also be related to the public holidays.

Apr 19  - Indian coriander prices rally
The Indian coriander spot price averaged INR12,500/quintal ($164.6/quintal) at Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 11 April 2022, 9% more than on 14 March. Indian exports fell by 31.5% y/y in volume to 3,590 tonnes and by 16.4% in value to $5.2 million in January 2022. The main importers were Malaysia and Nepal, which took 18% and 12%, respectively, of the total volume.

The updated daily futures market price on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) was:

    INR12,334/quintal for deliveries in April 2022 on 8 April, 14% more than on 9 March
    INR12,494/quintal for deliveries in May 2022 on 8 April, 14% more
    INR12,760/quintal for deliveries in June 2022 on 8 April, 15% more
    INR13,026/quintal for deliveries in July 2022 on 8 Apr, 16% more
    INR13,292/quintal for deliveries in August 2022 on 8 April, 11% more than on 1 April

Apr 19  - Cocoa tumbles to four-week low
New York cocoa sold off to a four-week low and closed sharply lower on Monday (April 18). July New York cocoa settled down $58 to $2,578 a tonne, hitting the lowest price in nearly one month during the session, at $2,213 a tonne.
Strength in the dollar weighed on cocoa prices after the dollar index Monday climbed to a 1¾-year high. London cocoa did not trade with the UK closed for Easter Monday. Meanwhile, by last Thursday, prices were steady to slightly higher. July London cocoa settled up £8 to £1,803 per tonne. July New York cocoa settled up $9 to $2,636 a tonne.

Signs of strength in global cocoa demand are bullish for prices after the European Cocoa Association reported that Q1 European cocoa grindings rose +4.4% y/y to 373,498 tonnes, the most in more than a decade.

Apr 19  - Industrial tomato prices agreed in Northern Italy
North Italian tomato farmers will receive €109.5 ($117.8) per tonne this season, a record-high increase of 18% compared with 2021, according to the framework agreement signed by the industry and growers’ representatives on 12 April 2022. Tomato prices have increased in all main processing countries due to rising production costs, high demand and uncertainty about water availability during the growing season. The agreement was reached after long and intense negotiations.

First price offer from the industry was of €94/tonne. Farmers initially wanted €97/tonne, but asking price rose to €110-115/tonne when Spain closed contracts above €100/tonne and the start of the war in Ukraine caused production costs to shoot up.

Italy is the largest producer of industrial tomato in Europe and the world’s largest processor and exporter of canned tomatoes

Apr 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Only shortly after the opening, the market reacted to the pre-market grind figures, and the July 22 marked a high of GBP 1811, then corrected back to the corresponding low of the day at GBP 1794. Afterwards, the market sucked in further lousy volume around GBP 1800 and ended the day with GBP +8 at GBP 1803, slightly in the upper end of the day's range. The good figures from the ECA (the best Q1 in terms of volume), could hardly impress anyone - after all, the rental figures only show the past, the world has changed drastically and not for the better in the last few weeks.

- NY was solo and much weaker on Easter Monday. The July 22 ended the day there $ -58 at $2578. This gives London a theoretically weak opening of GBP -30.

Apr 15  - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- Robusta coffee stocks fall back below 1.6 million bags
- Italy’s Lavazza sees 11% y/y revenues increase
- Sumatran robusta coffee exports fall by 48.6% y/y

Production
- Tenderable robusta coffee stocks held in ICE Futures Europe nominated warehouses fell by 364 ten-tonne lots to 9,386 (around 1.564 million 60-kg bags) in the two weeks to 7 April, exchange data showed. Stocks in Antwerp fell by 191 lots to 4,796 lots, or 51% of all certified robusta stocks. This was followed by Amsterdam with 2,316 lots and London (2,073). This is down sharply from 14,671 lots (2.445 million bags) held at the same time last year. A months-long decline in inventories came to a halt in early February.

Demand
- Italy’s Lavazza saw its revenues increased 11% to EUR2.3 billion last year, thanks to a recovery in the “out of home” channel after the slowdown caused by the COVID-19 epidemic, when lockdowns kept people at home. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) reached EUR312 million in 2021, up 23.3% on 2020. The company said it expected a difficult 2022 due to raw material price rises after reporting a strong increase in profits for 2021.

Trade
- Sumatran robusta coffee exports fell by 48.6% to 126,740 60-kg bags in March 2022 from 246,731 bags in the same month last year. Shipments were down from 9,028 tonnes in February. This brought total exports in the now-completed 2021/22 season to 3.2 million bags, down 17.7% y/y.
- Stronger demand for arabica coffee has further lifted export prices at Cameroon's main Douala port, according to figures released by the country's National Cocoa and Coffee Board. Exporters paid 2,991 CFA francs ($4.96) a kilogram of arabica coffee at the port, up 3.6% from XAF2,888 the week prior, the NCCB data showed. The increase is in addition to the 7.6% jump between prices a fortnight ago and last week.

Price
- Coffee futures were mixed this week, with arabica coffee suffering sharp losses by Wednesday (April 13) and all gains from a two-day rally on Friday and Monday erased. The benchmark July arabica contract settled down 8.40 cents at 225.15 cents per pound, in dealings between 224.75 and 235.00 cents. Front-month May was down 8.55 cents at 225.05 cents and the rest of the board shed 4.25-7.60 cents. The benchmark July robusta contract settled down $6 at $2,105 per tonne, trading a $2,095-2,116 range. Front-month May was down $7 at $2,091 per tonne and the back months settled between $3 down and $7 higher.

Mar 15  - Market Briefing: Sugar (IHSmarkit)

- Brazil’s CS crushed 1.1 million tonnes of cane in the second half of March
- Kazakhstan asks for additional 300,000 tonnes sugar import quota
- Indian sugar exports reach 5.81 million tonnes

Production
- Sugar mills Brazil’s Centre/South crushed 1.1 million tonnes of cane in the second half of March, down from 4.9 million in the same period last year, UNICA data showed. Crushing was almost entirely ethanol-focused with just 12,000 tonnes of sugar produced, down from 174,000 a year ago. This brought final cane output in the now-completed 2022/23 season to 523.1 million tonnes, down 13.6% from 605.4 million in 2020/21.

Demand
- Kazakhstan's Agriculture Ministry has asked the European Economic Commission (EEC) to grant the country an additional duty-free raw sugar import quota of 300,000 tonnes. A ministry spokeswoman said that the 250,000 tonnes quota allocated to Kazakhstan in December 2021 for import until 31 August 2022 meets domestic demand for six months. She also added that some 125,000 tonnes imported under the previous raw sugar import quota was already distributed to producers.
- The Philippines is mulling over importing 350,000 tonnes of sugar to plug the shortfall in domestic supply and arrest skyrocketing prices of the sweetener. A draft Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) Sugar Order (SO) obtained by local daily Business Mirror showed that the agency plans to open an importation program of 250,000 tonnes refined sugar and 100,000 tonnes raw sugar.

Trade
- Indian sugar mills have exported 5.8 million tonnes of sugar in the current 2021/22 season as of 7 April, with another 600,000 tonnes in transit, the All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) said. It added that mills have contracted to export 7.4 million tonnes of sugar without a government subsidy so far in the season. Some 4.960 million tonnes of the total have been exported by sugar mills and merchant exporters directly, and 850,000 tonnes were delivered to Indian refineries for refining and overseas supply.

Price
- Raw sugar futures in New York hit four to five-month highs this week, backed by overall positive sentiment in financial markets and a strong Brazilian currency limiting forward sales out of top producer and exporter Brazil. On April 8, raws May settled at 20.41 cents per pound, up 57 points on the day after hitting 20.45 cents, the highest since mid-November. By April 13, New York rose as high as 20.51 cents, before closing down to 20.10 cents per pound. White in London also posted sizeable gains, settling at $576.20 per tonne, with the intraday high marking the highest level for a front-month contract since November 2016.

Mar 15  - Market Briefing: Cocoa (IHSmarkit)

- Europe’s Q4 cocoa grind up by 4.4% y/y to 373,498 tonnes
- Barry Callebaut’s sales volumes rose by 8.7% y/y to reach 1,164,749 tonnes
- Cocoa futures mostly lower, weighed by abundant supplies

Production
- Colombia’s historically-high cocoa production last season, could be detrimental to small-scale farmers, local chocolatier, Juan Choconat, outlined. For the 2020/21 season, which concluded in October, the country produced 70,205 tonnes ; a 20-year high and up 9.2% y/y. However, larger volumes does not translate into better pricing for all cocoa growers, nor does it guarantee optimum quality product, which the country prides itself in, according to company CEO Juan Manuel Arbelaez.
- The Ivory Coast government reported that its farmers sent a cumulative 1.9 million tonnes to its ports from Oct 1-April 10, up +6.7% y/y. Exporters estimated a 1.2% y/y rise.

Demand

- European cocoa processing figures for Q1 2021 rose to their highest quarterly level in at least 17 years, the European Cocoa Association (ECA) indicated in its latest report. Europe’s fourth-quarter cocoa grind increased by 4.4% from a year earlier to 373,498 tonnes. Cocoa grinding in Germany also continued to increase for a fourth quarter in a row. Q1 2022 cocoa grind rose 7.1% on the year to 98,018 tonnes, Germany’s confectionery industry association BDSI also said.
- Barry Callebaut’s overall sales volumes rose by 8.7% y/y to reach 1,164,749 tonnes, in its first six months fiscal year 2021/22. Its chocolate business grew by a considerable 9.9%, clearly outpacing the underlying global chocolate confectionery market of +2%, according to Nielsen.

Trade
- Germany is expected to export approximately 120 million chocolate bunnies (100 grams each) this Easter, mainly to European partner countries, as well as to the US, Canada, Australia and South Africa, according to BDSI.

Price
- Cocoa prices were mostly lower this week, weighed by abundant supplies, particularly from Ivory Coast. The prospects for increased precipitation in West Africa are also pressuring prices. By Wednesday’s (April 13) close, July London cocoa settled down £10 to £1,795 per tonne, while July New York cocoa settled down $7 to $2,627 a tonne. July London cocoa hit its highest in almost two months during Monday’s session.
- Meanwhile, Barry Callebaut outlined that during the first six months of fiscal year 2021/22, cocoa bean prices fluctuated between £1,636 and £1,877 per tonne and closed at £1,690 per tonne on February 28, 2022. On average, cocoa bean prices increased by +2.9% versus the prior-year period.

Apr 15  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- 33% increase in Zanzibar’s clove production
- 47% fall in Ethiopian sesame seed exports
- 9% growth in Indian coriander prices

Production
- India’s 2021-22 cumin seed crop is expected to plummet to around 600,000-650,000 tonnes (-25-30% less y/y) as farmers cut drastically planted hectares, after prices hit the rock-bottom in the previous season.
- The Argentinian government has just launched its rule to legalise hemp and CBD in the food industry. Tetrahidrocannabinol (THC) proportion must be below 0.3% in the food product to be authorised. Prior to this, Argentina authorised the use of hemp in the pharmacy industry in 2017.
- Paraguay’s 2022-23 sesame production is expected to reach 30,000 tonnes, downgrading by 40% the initial estimate due to severe drought.
- Zanzibar’s 2021-22 clove crop reached 8,000 tonnes (+33% y/y), being close to the Zanzibar government goal of reaching 10,000 tonnes and 5 million trees in 2025, after suffering a gradual fall in previous years.

Demand
- Sunflower shortage due to the Russia-Ukraine war has fuelled the demand for other products such as sesame, pushing up prices. In addition, the economic sanctions against Russia, the second-largest global coriander supplier, have raised the demand for Indian coriander. 

Trade
- Indian coriander exports fell by 31.5% y/y in volume to 3,590 tonnes and by 16.4% in value to $5.2 million in January 2022. The main importers were Malaysia, Nepal and the UAE, which took 18%, 12% and 11%, respectively.
- Ethiopian sesame seed exports reached 28,860 tonnes, worth $48.5 million, 47% less y/y in volume and 43% less in value, in Q1 2022. The main importers were Israel, the UAE and Vietnam, accounting for 48%, 14% and 9%, respectively.
- The Spanish police have detained an organised group of saffron fraudsters who modified gardenias NDA, genetic tests considering the product was real saffron. Police seized 2,000 kilos of processed gardenias which fraudsters aimed to sell with a total value of €750,000 ($815,000).

Price
- The Indian coriander spot price averaged INR12,500/quintal ($164.6/quintal) at Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 11 April 2022, 9% more than on 14 March. 
- Zanzibar’s average clove fob export price reached $7,439/tonne in the 2021-22 season, 41% more year-on-year. 
- IHS Markit quoted the following prices in the week ending on 7 April 2022, stagnant month-on-month:
   

Apr 15 - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- French prune production projected to plummet 44%
- Wet weather spoils Australian Thompson sultana prospects
- US almond producers undeterred by decline in net shipments

Production
- US almond crop receipts (for the 2021-22 crop) have reached 2.902 billion lbs.
- Australian almond producer Select Harvests said its crop is forecast to finish in late April, subject to the favourable climate continuing, following a slow start due to adverse weather conditions.
- Iran’s 2021 pistachio crop totalled 135,000 tonnes (-44% y/y) with carry-over stocks at a minimum level of 5,000 tonnes, bringing the total supply to 140,000 tonnes.
- Severe frosts have hit around 80% of the plum trees in southwest France and initial estimates are for the country’s 2022-23 prune crop to potentially fall by 44% y/y to 9,000 tonnes, after suffering a dramatic fall in the previous season also due to frosts.
- Australian dried fruit producers have faced three heavy rain events so far this growing season. New crop sultanas are good quality fruit but of a brownish colour as opposed to the nice, light golden colour that is normally aimed for at times of perfect drying conditions. Hence, the Thompson sultana is a little disappointing this year and will not suit all markets but Australian Premium Dried Fruits is confident it has decent exportable volumes of the Sunmuscat and the Sunglo.
- Morocco’s 2021 date production rose by 41% year-on-year to 127,000 tonnes.

Demand
- Despite the overall lag in US almond shipments (much of which is attributed to ongoing logistical issues) there are signs of underlying strong demand. For example, shipments of 74 million lbs to western Europe this March were just one million lbs less than March 2021, and the Almond Board of California was encouraged by the monthly total to India (23.92 million lbs versus 24.32 million lbs in March 2021). In addition, March 2022 shipments of 14.7 million lbs to Japan compared with 9.7 million lbs in the same month a year ago.
- US walnut shipments (see Trade below) are also being impacted by the same logistical constraints.
- Demand for Iranian pistachios is lower this season (2021-22) (see Trade below) but reduced production has contributed to the decline in volumes shipped.

Trade
- Californian walnut shipments fell by 1% y/y to 75.2 million in-shell basis pounds this February, bringing seasonal sales (September-February) to 449.2 million lbs, 16% less y/y. Turkey, the Middle East and Morocco were the main importers as they are replenishing their stocks to cover the demand for the Ramadan festival.
- US total almond shipments for the August 2021-March 2022 period were down nearly 15% y/y at 1.683 billion versus 1.978 billion lbs earlier. Seasonal exports were 19.4% behind at 1.683 billion lbs and domestic shipments over the eight months were just 2.8% lower at 516.97 million lbs.
- Iran has exported 71,029 tonnes of pistachios from October 2021-April 2022, 51% less y/y and 17% less than in October 2019-April 2020.

Price
- The Iranian exchange value is growing against the euro and US dollar as their political and diplomatic relations are improving, firming prices of Iranian pistachios .
- US almond prices remain relatively firm in the run up to further news on the 2022 bloom and the next forecasts for this year’s crop.
- International prunes prices will be at record levels again this year due to the combination of low supply and logistics costs and inflation, California and Chile taking advantage of this scenario mainly.

Apr 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With not even 10K lots net volume, the downward movement continued yesterday (not entirely surprisingly). The July 22 corrected, right at the beginning of the day, to yesterday's low of GBP 1786. Then it came to the classic ping pong, with as mentioned meagre turnover, which has now accompanied us for some time. The low was then followed by the high at GBP 1820 and the market spent the rest of the day almost unchanged, closing July 22 GBP -10 at GBP 1795 on the weak side. We expect next support at GBP 1765 and GBP 1758, with Q1's initial grindingn umbers bringing few surprises of note and coming in slightly at the high end of expectations.

- London will be closed on Good Friday and Easter Monday, NY opens later on Monday at 13:30.

Apr 13  - Dramatic rise in prune prices expected as frosts have severely damaged the French crop (IHSmarkit)

- 44% fall in the French prune production expected
- Bullish prices due to dramatic fall in carry-over stocks

- Severe frosts have hit around 80% of the plum trees located in southwest France, the main domestic origin for plums and prunes, according to industry sources.
- Temperatures dropped to -7oC from 2-5 April, growers being unable to establish efficient protective measures due to extremely low temperatures.

- The French interprofessional agency of Prunes (BIP) initially estimates that the 2022-23 prune crop may fall by 44% year-on-year to 9,000 tonnes, after suffering a dramatic fall in the previous season due to frosts also. In addition, the agency explained that the domestic industry may lose international market share against the US and Chile as carry-over stocks plummeted the previous season to satisfy the global demand.

Analysis
- The global prune supply will not match the demand although California, Chile and minor origins such as Serbia have bumper crops compared with disappointing crops in France and Argentina, as carry-over stocks will be at low levels after being consumed mostly in the previous season.
- This means prices will be at record levels again due to the combination of low supply and logistics costs and inflation, California and Chile taking advantage of this blurred scenario mainly. However, the industry will have to handle this situation carefully after promoting prunes for years to increase their market share in the dried fruit market as importers may switch to other products with a lower price.

Apr 13  - Ethiopia closed Q1 with a sharp fall in sesame seed exports (IHSmarkit)

- 47% fall in exports
- Record low production in the 2021-22 season

- Ethiopian sesame seed exports reached 28,860 tonnes, worth $48.5 million, 47% less y/y in volume and 43% less in value, in Q1 2022.
- The main importers of Ethiopian sesame were Israel, the UAE and Vietnam, accounting for 48%, 14% and 9%, respectively.
- The civil war in northern Ethiopia has halted planting works in 30% of sesame farms, according to the government.
- The 2021-22 crop reached 260,000 tonnes (it might fall below 180,000 tonnes (-9% y/y).

Apr 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Yesterday's trading day showed a similar pattern as the previous one. Driven by covering against short positions, the 2nd month marked highs of GBP 1836, similar to those of Monday. Here, profit taking put pressure on the market and counter speculative buying failed. Thus, Jul22 posted a loss of GBP -15 to close just above the good old GBP 1800 level at GBP 1805. Due to weakening consumer expectations, the structure came under pressure in the front months, the May / Jul 22 spread ran apart to now GBP -30.

- Faced with a renewed Russian offensive, oil and grains gained intraday, while US inflation of 8.5% pressured NY (40-year high!).

- March grinding figures in Ivory Coast were a good 5% above the previous month, unsurprisingly with freight costs currently at extremes. EU figures come out Thursday.

Apr 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The firm opening was again followed by a rise in quotes to highs at GBP 1839 in 2nf month and it looked like the fixing would hold. However, shortly before the NY opening, incipient hedging pressure put the market under significant pressure. Support was found just above GBP 1800, which held through the evening; closing price almost unchanged (GBP 1820 base Jul22; -2), again above the 1800 level.

- The markets are already slightly overbought, the index is at the upper end of the neutral range, which may raise the prospect of a correction.

- At origin, Ivory Coast arrivals are at 1.641 million mt, following CCC data, slightly below last year's levels.

- Ghana, meanwhile, assures that the crop is sufficient to repay the crop loan of USD 1.5 billion.

Apr 12 - Traders reroute coffee bound to Russia, demand hit from war seen
Traders are diverting coffee shipments that were initially expected to go to Russia, and some have stopped selling to that market altogether, attendees at a U.S. coffee conference said. Although food trade is not included in sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, difficulties in processing payments from Russian importers and concerns about the safety of ships in the Black Sea have cut shipments of coffee and other goods to the country.

Apr 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Even the onset of hedging pressure from the origin could not stop the firm market movement at the end of the week. Fresh managed money longs, as well as an intermittently weak local currency, took the July 22 through GBP 1800 resistance (high GBP 1824). The July 22 ended the day at GBP +34 at GBP 1822. The May / July 22 spread, which narrowed from GBP -25 to GBP -13 in 2 days, provided further upward momentum, the remaining shorts sought their fortune in flight and bought the market up as well.

- The July 22 LDN is due for a GBP +8 firm opening, this would mean a break through GBP 1831 resistance (double top from mid-March). As of the end of last week, another 5 BDU's were under the knife (5 regrades Cameroon / 1 fresh BDU Nigeria), all were accepted accordingly. We wish you a good start into the short Easter week. LDN remains closed on Friday & Monday

Apr 08  - Vietnam domestic prices edge down on Fed fears, Brazil hopes (Reuters)

- Vietnam's domestic coffee prices edged lower this week, tracking weakness in global financial markets on worries about policy tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve, while favourable crop outlook in Brazil dented sentiment further. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold coffee COFVN-DAK at 40,500-41,500 dong ($1.77-$1.81) per kg, down from a range of 41,100 to 42,000 dong a week earlier.
"Output from Brazil, where a harvest is expected to begin in June, is forecast to be huge, putting downward pressure on global prices," a trader based in Ho Chi Minh City said, adding that a harvest is also underway in Indonesia.

- However, local traders said low stockpile will keep domestic prices from falling significantly further, adding that farmers in the Central Highlands have sold 70%-80% of their beans.

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta COFVN-G25-SAI at a discount range of $240 to $250 per tonne to the July contract, unchanged from last week. July robusta coffee LRCc2 settled down $20, or 0.9%, at $2,090 a tonne after slumping to a three-week low of $2,071 on Wednesday.

- In Indonesia's Lampung province, robusta beans for shipments in May and onwards were offered at discounts of $150, compared with the $150-$160 discount last week. Another trader said the discount was at $200 to the July contract, compared with last week's $200 discount to May contract. Traders in Indonesia said a mini harvest has begun there, starting at farms in the western region of Lampung.

Apr 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- July 22 opened the trading day unchanged at GBP 1761, then also marked yesterday's low at GBP 1760, before the firm close of the previous day prevailed and the upward movement gained new momentum. July 22 tested GBP 1800 resistance at GBP 1792, once again. July 22 closed just below the highs at GBP +27 at GBP 1788. No need to panic (yet), for a good 3 weeks now the market has continued to move in a + / - GBP 1750 / 1800 range.  Hard to believe with the sometimes immense daily volatility.

- Purchases in Ghana at the end of March 22 are at 524,000mt vs. 791,000mt from the previous year. This is now down -33.8% from an impressive -41% the previous month. The head of Cocobod in Ghana announced yesterday that Nigeria would also implement LID "pretty soon". The first meetings are to take place next month.

Apr 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After an already slightly bullish opening, the market continued to hold its direction for the day. Opening firmer at + GBP 3, followed by a further upside move to GBP + 25 vs. July22 to close at GBP 1761, + 15 (+0.9%). A stable price on a moving average basis between the shorter-term 10- and 50-day moving averages at GBP 1772 and GBP 1778 respectively on the upper side and the longer-term 100 and 200 day moving averages at GBP 1754 and GBP 1745 respectively on the lower side.

- Trading volume in Ldn. again showed very little interest in the cocoa market, trading less than 20k lots excl. EFP. Since the beginning of the year, cocoa is thus trading at 2% up. Relative price stability that may help with some to the purchasing books of many producers due to the price increase of other commodities.

Apr 06  - Fall in the Spanish paprika production due to drought (IHSmarkit)
- 10% fall in the Spanish paprika production
- Rising demand for high-quality paprika due to disappointing supply from China

- The Spanish spice processor La Chinata told IHS Markit that the Spanish paprika crop fell by 10% year-on-year to around 3,000 tonnes due to the gradual fall in the planted area and the severe drought in South Extremadura, the main origin, in the food fair Alimentaria, held in Barcelona from 4-7 April.

- However, La Chinata was optimistic about long-term trends. “Fall in the South American and Chinese paprika supply is making importers to keep an eye on high-quality suppliers such as Spain or Hungary, being available to pay higher prices,” the commercial manager of La Chinata, Carlos Oliva, explained.
“We are enjoying rising sales in the European markets, especially the gourmet niche and some of our customers are demanding new products. As a result, we have launched a spicy paprika sauce in Alimentaria and we are receiving very positive feedback from purchasers of the hospitality sector,” Oliva added.

Apr 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Until late afternoon, or just under 2 hours before the close, the cocoa market traded in a narrow range of GBP 1765/1775. Selling pressure from specs/funds, supported by a firm British pound took the July 22 through both of its long-term technical supports. The July 22 broke through its 100 day moving average (GBP 1753), as well as the corresponding 200 day MA (GBP 1745).

- The market found good support there and the July 22 ended the day at GBP -19 at GBP 1746. Volume was more than manageable at just under 10k lots net, once again. Technically, there is now room to GBP 1720 / 1710, where buying interest from the industry is likely to pick up again. 2.5 weeks before the first notice day of the May 22 position in NY, events there are dominated by the rolling of the index funds. There, the May / July 22 extended to $-56 (full carry). New York July 22 close $-24 at $2589.

Apr 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The new trading week began the same way as the last one ended: Volatile and indecisive. Falling prices within the first hour of trading GBP -20 (-1.2%), followed by some upside and subsequently a NY-led strengthening of the market to GBP +20GBP (+1%). As bullish as the market seemed, further buying interest was lacking towards the close, leading to renewed decline in prices. Closing price July22 GBP 1765 (-0.6%).

- Côte d'Ivoire arrivals remain positive, at 1.694 mln/mt vs. 1.1664 mln /mt last year, +30k mt (1.8%). In light of the Ukraine crisis, the CCC in Côte d'Ivoire is allowing local exporters to roll their main crop export contracts into the next shipping period, thereby alleviating pressure on shippers. Such a measure is unprecedented. 

Apr 04  - Russia faces rising sugar prices, shortages as traders divert shipments
Commodity traders have started diverting sugar shipments away from Russia, according to industry sources and shipping data, a move set to further boost soaring domestic prices and ratchet up pressure on the Russian government to cool food inflation. Russia needed sugar imports this year after two successive shortfalls in the beet crop, and disruption to shipments will result in shortfalls as the country battles panic buying of sugar and other staples, industry experts said.

Apr 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The failed sustained break through GBP 1800 resistance set negative signs right from the start. The July 22 lost a good GBP 30 and traded to lows of GBP 1764. Closing price, at the lower end of the range, at GBP 1776 /GBP -20 (-1.1%).

- Thus ended another volatile week, at just GBP 5 above the price at the beginning of the week. Commitment of Traders as of 29.03 show an increase in the Managed Money position by a good 14k lots, the majority consisting of the liquidation of the shorts (a good 11k lots).

- As a reminder: In the previous week, the speculative position increased by almost 12k lots. A (halfway) clear direction of the specs / funds is not visible. Another sign that we are in for further highly volatile days with low volume. Both exchanges are now net long at 77,629 lots.

Apr 01  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- 13% fall expected in the 2021-22 Indian sesame production
- US demand for spices is still high although inflation is offsetting McCormick’s profits
- 32% increase in Indian guar gum exports

Production
- India’s 2021-22 sesame production is expected to reach 708,000 tonnes, 13% less y/y due to unfavourable weather.
- Turkish supply of herbs such as oregano, sage, rosemary and thyme is tight due to a disappointing crop the last season after suffering a severe drought. Turkish farmers expanded their acreage due to high prices for herbs but rain scarcity cut the average yield.
- India’s 2021-22 dried onion production is expected to reach 102,000 tonnes, exports taking 70%-75% of the volume. The Egyptian production is around 19,000 tonnes, international sales taking 70-75% of the volume. 
- The French company Texinfine will invest XPF240 million ($2.2 million) to develop a plant in Tahiti to process vanilla. It will start to build the facility in April 2022. Tahiti’s 2021 vanilla production reached around 25 tonnes, stagnant y/y.

Demand
- The US spice processor McCormick reported that home cooking is still the driver of growth in sales, although inflation is offsetting profits. Its sales rose by 3% year-on-year to $946.8 million in December 2021-February 2022 although its gross profit fell by 3% y/y to $560.4 million.

Trade
- India’s guar gum exports rose by 32% y/y in volume to 20,000 tonnes and doubled to $39.1 million in January 2022. The US, Russia and Germany accounted for 31%, 13% and 13%, respectively.
- Indian sesame exports were 16,179 tonnes, worth $30.4 million, in January 2022, 15% less y/y in volume and unchanged in value. The main importers were South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia, which took 13%, 9% and 8%, respectively. Indian sesame imports reached 2,9600 tonnes in January 2022, 52% less y/y. The main suppliers were Sudan and Nigeria, which accounted for 13% and 9%, respectively.

Price
- India’s new sesame seed (whitish) spot price averaged INR11,700/quintal ($154/quintal) at the Unjha wholesale market (Gujarat, North East) on 25 March 2022, INR50 less than on 28 February.
- India’s guar gum spot price averaged INR11,900 ($113.3/quintal) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 28 March 2022, 8% more than on 28 February, due to rising prices for oil once the Russian attack against Ukraine started.
- Chinese red bell pepper prices averaged $5,600/tonne cfr EMP for 9x9 mm flakes, stagnant m/m, thanks to a bumper fresh crop.

Apr 01  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- Rains impacting Vietnam cashew crop quality
- World date production forecast to gain 11% y/y
- Sri Lankan desiccated coconut exports 58% ahead y/y in the first two months of this year

Production
- Turkey’s Ministry of Agriculture has claimed there is severe damage from extreme cold weather to the country’s 2022 hazelnut crop but traders have expressed doubts, noting that although frost and snow might still have an impact, the first signs still point towards a volume of around 790,000 tonnes and of good quality.
- Unseasonal rains are appearing continuously in Vietnam’s cashew orchards and this is affecting kernels quality, resulting in immature nuts, rotten nuts, nuts infested with worms or shrivelled.
- Global 2021-22 production of dates is projected at 1.11 million tonnes, 11% more y/y despite labour shortages during the Covid-19 lockdowns thanks to planted area expansion. However, the average quality is lower than the initial expectations as lockdowns affected tasks on palms in key periods. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt are expected to be the main producers with 220,000 tonnes (+7% y/y), 140,000 tonnes (+8% y/y) and 140,000 tonnes (+27% y/y), respectively.

Demand
- The gradual fall in Chinese imports of US in-shell pecans is not being reversed. The only option to recover sales is raising exports of shelled exports to Europe and Canada although they are not offsetting yet the weak Chinese purchases. The net impact of this can be seen in the latest US pecan export figures.
- Sea freight disruptions have hit international sales of dates, although high domestic demand in growing countries has helped keep the 2021-22 consumption estimate for dates unchanged at 1.10 million tonnes, 14% more year-on-year.

Trade
- Global sales of US pecans were 9.8 million in-shell basis pounds this February, 11% less y/y, bringing seasonal shipments (September-January) to 45.5 million lbs, 27% less y/y.
- Sri Lanka’s desiccated coconut exports rose by 58% y/y in volume in the first two months of this year to 6,030 tonnes and by 49% in value to LKR3.3 billion ($11.4 million).
- Vietnam’s imports of raw cashew nuts (RCN) plummeted 30.9% this February to 87,586 tonnes. This brought its RCN imports for January-February 2022 combined to 195,125 tonnes – a fall of 26% from the same period in 2021.
- Indian peanut sector sources report that the Indian peanut market for exports has seen decent movement since the beginning of the season mainly due to the Far East markets of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam. However, the resurgence of Covid in various parts of the world, rising costs of crude oil at $120+, firm vegetable oil markets and the continued challenge for containers and high freight rates continue to dampen global trade with many countries now consuming a large part of what they produce

Price
- The Sri Lankan fresh coconut price averaged LKR64.7 ($0.21) per coconut in the Kuliyapiitya coconut auction on 24 March, 7% more m/m. Wholesale desiccated coconut prices ranged from LKR500-530 for fine and from LKR510-560/kg for medium in the week ending on 24 March, unchanged m/m.
- In the local Vietnam cashew market, from the beginning of new crop up to now, prices of fresh nuts (not dried) dropped by VND5,000-7,000 ($0.21-0.30) per kilo and are trading around VND20,000/kg. This is the equivalent of dried nuts at around $1,050-1,100/tonne.

Apr 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

-With a high yesterday of GBP 1812, the July 22 again broke through the important technical resistance at GBP 1800, but once again the market consistently refused to close above it. Closing price July 22, again almost unchanged, at GBP -2 at GBP 1796. The only change from the previous day: the morning was exceptionally weak and the afternoon firm. A clear trend and volume continue to be lacking, the market is indecisive and continues to move in the GBP 1650 - GBP 1850 range, only currently at the upper end.

- The CCC reported keeping the Midcrop farmgate price at CFA 825, unchanged from the Main Crop. In the 20/21 mid crop this was still CFA 725.

Mar 31 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- While Hamburg (with the current snowfalls) thinks it is an alpine ski resort, the cocoa market was again completely indecisive yesterday.

- The July 22 corrected by GBP 20 in the morning to lows of GBP 1773. In the afternoon, supported by a weak British pound, the market broke through GBP 1800 resistance (high GBP 1809). Closed GBP +5 at GBP 1798 almost unchanged. The 2 month thus achieved new 2 week highs yesterday, so a range of GBP 130 stands, with highs of GBP 1831 and lows of GBP 1704, since mid-March alone. Open interest has decreased by a good 30k lots in London since the end of February and volatility is rising. Actually a bearish signal.

- The Cocobod is now telling farmers to fertilise with chicken mist due to the lack of fertiliser. Makes us smile only at first glance...but further shows how the current crisis is also occupying our market.

Mar 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Yesterday, the strengthening continued.

- The second month Jul 22 gained around GBP 25 shortly after opening to GPB 1795, just below the psychological resistance of GBP 1800. However, origin selling at these levels generated good selling interest and slowed down the rally. Nevertheless, the Jul 22 closed firm at GBP 1793 (+22), raising the question whether further firming is likely. Support is brought by the weaker GBP, as well as the approaching Last Trading Day of the May 22 options in NY. Here, the next largest call options open interest is at $2700, above current levels, puts even further away. Assuming a steady market, this would be a bullish constellation.

Mar 29  - Rising oil prices are fuelling Indian guar gum prices (IHSmarkit)

- 8% increase in spot prices 
- 6-7% growth in futures prices for deliveries from April-September 2022

- India’s guar gum spot price averaged INR11,900 ($113.3/quintal) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 28 March 2022, 8% more than on 28 February, due to rising prices for oil once the Russian attack against Ukraine started.

- Indian exports rose by 32% y/y in volume to 20,000 tonnes and doubled to $39.1 million in January 2022. The US, Russia and Germany accounted for 31%, 13% and 13%, respectively.

- The daily futures market prices on India’s NCDEX were:

Mar 29  - High prices for Peruvian and Chinese paprika due to low supply (IHSmarkit)

- The Indian chilli is severely damaged by pests, encouraging Chinese farmers to sell their crops in the fresh market
- Rising fertiliser and input production costs

- Prices for Peruvian and Chinese paprika are growing and they may be bearish in the mid-term due to supply scarcity, according to Olam Spices in its latest market update. Peruvian farmers cut planted acreage due to low prices in the previous season and Chinese farmers are selling fresh product at high prices due to a disappointing crop in India, cutting available raw product for Chinese paprika processors.
Chilli. Olam confirmed that the Indian supply is lower than in the previous season and with a lower average quality due to pests after heavy rains. Prices grew by 10% between January-February 2022.

- Meanwhile, the US chilli was better than expected thanks to high yields, mirroring the volume harvested in the2020-21 season.

- Prices are expected to continue high and supply be tight due to the following points:

Mar 29  - Shanghai’s complete lockdown disrupts sales of imported fruits (IHSmarkit)

- Ports continue to operate
- Some businesses have halted
- Imported grapes may be at risk of de-stocking after lockdowns

Shanghai, a home to 25 million people and China’s largest financial city, has entered into a two-stages lockdown over nine days. Meanwhile, local authorities carry out Covid-19 mass testing. From Monday (28 March), the eastern side of Shanghai, which includes the city's financial centre, has been in a complete lockdown. From Friday, the western side of Shanghai is scheduled to go into lockdown. This staggered approach means that half of the city will be able to remain open. It is reported that Shanghai has been battling the Covid-19 spread for over a month and it had resisted to practice a complete lockdown like other major cities did until now. The zero-Covid policy has been insisted on by the central government.

- Humanitarian disaster incidents derived by the strict lockdowns in other major cities have been reported and shared in Chinese social media.

- A local fruit importer based in Shanghai told IHS Markit that: “The lockdown impact on fruit sales is significant. Now the Pudong district is in a complete lockdown. The ports are still in operation though. In the wholesale markets, only a limited number of people are working. It’s very difficult for us to plan and arrange the distribution and sales across the city when the road conditions and disruption are in various states based on the very local policy.” Many fruit importers are still operating in Shanghai but some have suspended, according to a local source. “As people stocked up their food before the lockdown or were panic buying, sales of fruit were going fine last week. During the lockdown, we think citrus and apples in the storage would be ok as they can be kept for a while and quality are less affected. There is a big shortage of vegetables as they are highly perishable. Limited number of home delivery workers continue to work, so, ecommerce is severely affected.” IHS Markit learnt that some leafy vegetable prices rose massively (two or three times higher than normal) this week.

- Shanghai is one of the most sophisticated ecommerce cities in China. Online grocery shopping among young people is commonplace. In Shanghai, current imported fruits include Egyptian oranges, Israeli grapefruits/pomeloes, grapes from Chile and South Africa and Peru, Chilean stonefruits and New Zealand’s apples. Sales of these will all be affected by the nine-day lockdown. “Grapes may be the most impacted as they are not easy to be stored and the quality will be less desirable by consumers. It’s uncertain if we will reduce the price for grapes, things are unclear after nine days,” IHS Markit was told by a local importer.

- At Guangzhou Jiangnan Wholesale Market (28 March 2022), grapefruits of Israeli origin were sold at CNY12.2 per kilo ($1.91/kg), 32% down y/y; Chilean plums at CNY14.17/kg, -9% y/y; Peruvian grapes at CNY23.74/kg, +13% y/y; Egyptian orange at CNY12.47/kg, -26% y/y.

- In the first two months of 2022, China imported nearly 260,000 tonnes of stonefruits, 10% down y/y. Grapefruit imports rose by 83% y/y to over 6,000 tonnes.

Mar 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- At the beginning of the week, cocoa once again showed its independence from other commodity markets, which were largely under pressure.

- The second month July22 in London gained GBP 31 in the meantime and passed the highs of early March to the resistance of the 50-day average at GBP 1778. Here, technical selling pressure set in. Close was at GBP 1771 Jul22 (+24).The 8k lots of new shorts mentioned yesterday in the Committment of Traders report as of May 22 may not like the firming...However, the facade of a lively trading day is crumbling given the volume of not even 13k lots in London, in NY at least 26k lots could change hands.  Arrivals of the last week in IVC: 25tmt (+ 4tmt compared to last year).

Mar 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After Friday's weak New York close, London also opened weak (as expected) and the July 22 drew a GBP 6 gap right at the start. The July 22 consequently corrected and found good resistance at GBP 1735 (100 day moving average / 2nd month conti-nuation). The gap was then filled around midday, but the signs continued to point to a semi-weak close. July 22 ended the day with GPB -17 at GBP 1747. As of 22.03, Managed Money reduced its position by 11,729 lots (- 3,650 longs / + 8,079 shorts).

- Technically, we are now back in no-man's land. The specs / funds are increasingly reducing their risk and liquidity is still in short supply.

Mar 25  - Asia Coffee-Vietnam market tepid, discounts unchanged in Indonesia (Reuters)
- Trading activity in Vietnam has been slow this week on low stocks, thin demand and lower global prices, traders said on Thursday, while discounts in Indonesia remained unchanged on scarce supplies ahead of a mini harvest.
- Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold coffee COFVN-DAK at 41,200-42,400 dong ($1.80-$1.85) per kg, higher than the 40,200-42,000 dong range last week.
"Supplies are running low so trade activities are not so robust. Farmers have sold around 80-90% of their beans," said a trader based in the coffee belt.

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta COFVN-G25-SAI at a discount range of $240-$250 per tonne, compared with last week's $220-$240 range.
- The London ICE May contract LRCc2 settled down $31, or 1%, at $2,139 per tonne on Wednesday. Another trader said coffee cherries had started to appear, however, rising fertilizer prices and fertilizer shortage may hurt trees' growth and the quality of beans.

- Indonesia's Sumatran robusta beans were offered at $150 discount to the April-May contract, a trader in Lampung province said, while another offered a $200 discount to the May contract. Both were unchanged from last week. A trader based in the region said a mini harvest had taken place in Lampung, although so far only some areas in the western region of the province were seen raising supplies.
"New beans are still scare as the mini harvest is not evenly spread yet," the trader said. Some farmers in the region said they had struggled with heavy rain in the past three months which caused coffee cherries to fall off the trees before their maturity.

Mar 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After some first buying interest upon the opening of the London market GBP +14, further trading reduced within the next hours of the day,  consequently and promptly causing a decline at the opening of the NY market, as further long liquidations as well as origin sales took place. Daily movement July22: Opening GBP 1782 - High GBP1796; Low GBP 1758 - Close at GBP 1764 (GBP -18 / -1%). We see the next price points on the upside at first GBP 1800 followed by GBP 1831 (Ceiling of the last February bullish move) as well as in case of a further correction at GBP 1760 followed by GBP 1741 (200 day MA) and GBP 1720. We wish you a relaxing weekend.

Mar 25  - Russia simplifies sugar import permit procedures after demand rush
Russia's agriculture ministry has simplified procedures for obtaining permits for white sugar imports after a jump in domestic demand, it said in a statement on Thursday. Many Russians have rushed to buy sugar and other staples after Western sanctions imposed on Russia for what Moscow calls "a special military operation" in Ukraine sent food prices higher in March. The authorities have repeatedly told people there is no need to stockpile food products.

Mar 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Similar to its "big brother" on the previous day, the London futures market also made strong gains yesterday. The July 22 broke, unchecked, through further technical resistance at GBP 1750 / 1765 and GBP 1780. Yesterday's high GBP 1785 and a firm close at GBP 1782 / GBP +33.

- The market, as mentioned yesterday, is now making its way towards GBP 1800 and the starting point of the last major correction. With a lack of hedging pressure for the near term and a comfortably sold origin (primarily for the current crop), the funds / specs will dictate the next move...These very same are currently more on the Liquidation shorts / build longs agenda and are looking for their next momentum in an illiquid environment.

Mar 23  - Lull in Turkish hazelnut market continues (IHSmarkit)

- Prices expected to increase
- TMO rumoured to have about 70,000 in-shell tonnes

- European hazelnut buyers are in no hurry to cover and are closely watching the market developments.

- Nizami Emreli of Azerstar LLC, which has a factory in Azerbaijan and an international sales office in Tallinn, Estonia, noted: “On the one hand, there are expectations for lower prices, given the state of the national currency, against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar, as well as the first data on the forecast for the new crop, which turned out to be quite impressive.”

- The initial forecast for the new crop announced last week was around 790,000 tonnes.
“But I want to emphasise that this is an initial forecast and according to my experience, it can be quite far from the real numbers. Usually, after the first forecast, according to tradition, rumours begin about frosts and the destruction of more than half of the crop,” Emreli added.

- Prices are expected to increase in view of the fact that the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has again put up for sale a new lot at a price of TRY39 ($2.62) per kilo. The TMO had previously placed a lot at this price, but market players considered this higher than the general market price and refrained from buying. From this it might be felt that the market does not need TMO stocks at all, and TMO is only trying to earn extra money.

- Currently the market is at TRY37.5-38.5/kg.

Mar 23  - Vietnamese processors start 2022 with low purchases of African raw cashews (IHSmarkit)

-  37% fall in imports
-  Slight decrease in international sales

- Vietnam’s imports of raw cashew nuts (RCNs) fell by 37% y/y to 153,157 tonnes in January-February 2022. Cambodia, Tanzania and Ivory Coast were the main suppliers, which held a 28%, 27% and 22% market share, respectively.
- Vietnamese cashew exports fell by 3% y/y in volume to 65,464 tonnes and by 2% in value to $389 million in January-February 2022.
- The main importers were the US and the Netherlands, which took 34% and 11%, respectively.

- Analysis : Vietnamese processors are slowing purchases of RCN from Africa, due to high prices and sea freight disruptions thanks to their high carry-over stocks. However, they may start launching massive orders in Q2 due to the fall in the domestic crop.

Mar 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With almost stubborn disinterest from fundamental market participants and further low volume, the specs / funds continue to set the tone and provide further volatility. The July 22 broke through its 200-day moving average at GBP 1740, as well as its 100-day average (GBP 1746). Closing near daily highs of GBP 1752 at GBP 1749 / GBP +30, above the key resistances just mentioned. London continues to lag NY by a considerable margin. The July 22 gained $62 to end the day at $2614. NY is now much closer to the $2640 level, which is where the sharp sell off in specs funds began last Tuesday. London still has GBP 50 of upside to the same level.

Mar 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

In the absence of buying interest, the first trading day of the new week opened immediately with a price discount of GBP 12, only to post further losses during the day and close at GBP 1719 (-1.45%) in the 2nd position. NY ended the day with lighter losses at -0.63%, USD 2552 on the second position, which allowed a slight reduction in the arbitrage at GBP 215 vs May 22. Arrivals from Côte d'Ivoire were reported yesterday as per March 20th at 1,651 mln MT. At 1.5%, it was still slightly above the previous year's arrivals of 1,626 Mln mt. With a 7-day price discount of now GBP 110 and a decreasing market liquidity and thus volatility, the market seems to be in a recovery phase for the first time and thus in search of the next its price movement.

Mar 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With not even 15,000 lots of gross volume (the lowest since the beginning of the year), it was a restrained end to the week. Liquidity still seems to be present only at the upper / lower ends of the ranges. Despite all this, or perhaps because of it, the July 22 produced a range of GBP 32. July 22 ended the day GBP +20 at GBP 1744.

- Overall, London ended the week weak at -4% , New York -3%. Commitment of Traders as of 15.03 also show no groundbreaking findings.

- The last reporting period was clearly marked by liquidations of managed money shorts (LDN -6.630 / NY -1.973). Net, both exchanges stand at 67,947 lots, an increase of 4,164 lots compared to the previous week.

Mar 18  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- Heavy rains have hit Australian macadamia plantation
- 6% growth in US pistachio exports
- 18% fall in Bolivian Brazil nut prices from January-March 2022

Production
- The 2021-22 global walnut crop is expected to fall by 35,000 tonnes year-on-year to 2.26 million tonnes after the US output has fallen by 15% y/y to 653,320 tonnes due to the combination of drought and an ‘off-year’ (pistachio trees have a low yield after a season with a high one).
- Heavy rains and floods in the Australian states of Queensland and New South Wales have hit many macadamia orchards and around 10% of the crop may be lost. The Australian macadamia crop was originally forecast to reach 54,930 tonnes in-shell at 3.5% moisture (58,900 tonnes in-shell at 10% moisture).
- The 2021-22 global prune output is expected to reach 172,960 tonnes, 19% more year-on-year, thanks to a robust recovery in the Chilean crop (65,000 tonnes, +86% y/y).

Demand
- The 2021-22 world walnut consumption estimate is 2.21 million (in-shell) tonnes, down from 2.29 million tonnes in the previous season due to a slight fall in the global supply.
- The demand for African raw cashews is low in Vietnam as processors have still high carry-over stocks, slowing orders due to high prices in West Africa, especially Ivory Coast.

Trade
- California’s raisin shipments were 19,320 (short) tons this February, unchanged from February 2021, bringing seasonal (August-February) sales to 150,374 tons, 12% less y/y.
- Australia’s almond shipments reached 3,170 kernel weight equivalence (KWE) tonnes in January 2022, 15% more y/y. Seasonal sales (March-January) totalled 84,430 tonnes (+14% y/y).
- US pistachio sales rose by 19% y/y to 24,670 (short) tons this February, bringing seasonal (September-February) volumes to 190,209 tons (+6% y/y).
- Indian cashew exports fell by 41% y/y in volume to 5,070 tonnes and by 20% in value to $37.9 million in January 2022. The main importers were the UAE and Saudi Arabia, accounting for 33% and 12%, respectively.
- Brazil nut sales to Russia and Belarus (a traditional re-exporter to Russia to avoid international sanctions after the war with Ukraine in Crimea) are halted. Russia is a minor importer (1,400 tonnes in 2021, +43% y/y), although with importers available to pay a high price.

Price
- Bolivian Brazil nuts are currently being processed and prices are stabilised at $3.5/lb fob in March 2022 for deliveries from July-August, after starting at $4.25/lb in January.

Mar 18  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- War removes Ukraine’s presence as a honey producer and exporter
- Indian pepper exports up 34% this January
- Renewed upward pressure on logistical costs

Production
- India’s production of chillies is being hit by pests, forcing farmers to increase the use of pesticides. Nepal has two annual chilli harvests in Q3 and Q4 and its farmers are expanding planted acreage to offset the supply shortage from India.
- India’s 2021-22 cumin crop is expected to fall by 20-25% despite favourable weather due to a drastic cut in the planted area (to 930,000 hectares from 993,000 ha previously), after many farmers decided to switch into other spices due to low prices for cumin seed in the previous season,
- With the Russia-Ukraine conflict now into its third week Ukraine is out of the picture as a global honey supplier. The country usually produces 50,000-70,000 tonnes of honey per year which is exported mainly to the EU and US destinations. Argentina’s latest honey crop has finished and is thought to be in a “normal” range of 70,000-80,000 tonnes

Demand
- Indian pepper has attracted keen buying in these early stages of 2022 (see Trade below).
- Demand shifts are taking place in the international honey market with the absence of Ukraine as a supplier (see Trade below). Traders report that honey demand in general is strong. Since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic the US has been a big buyer of honey and there has been no let up from this purchasing spree.

Trade
- Vietnam’s pepper exports reached 38,150 tonnes in January-February 2022, unchanged from the same period in 2021, valued at $139.6 million, 66% more year-on-year. The US and India were the main importers, accounting for 32% and 6%, respectively, of the total volume.
- Brazilian 2021 pepper exports fell by 20% y/y in volume to 13,400 tonnes but grew by 25% in value to $53.7 million. Vietnam and India were the main importers, taking 25% and 11% of the total volume.
- India’s pepper exports increased by 34% y/y in volume to 1,738 tonnes, worth $6.4 million (-16% y/y) in January 2022. Crushed sales accounted for 64% of the total volume. The US was the main importer, accounting for 36% of the total.
- India’s imports of whole pepper this January rose by 34% y/y in volume to 3,818 tonnes. Sri Lanka and Brazil were the main suppliers, accounting for 49% and 16%, respectively.
- Indian cumin seed exports reached 14,724 tonnes valued at $31.5 million in January 2022, 158 tonnes less year-on-year in volume and 8% more y/y in value, according to customs data. Bangladesh and the UAE were the main importers, accounting for 27% and 11%, respectively.
- Global honey importers are already missing Ukraine’s presence as an exporter. There has already been an upturn in demand for Latin American honeys and it is expected that more European buyers will turn to Chinese honey again. The US is expected to turn to Latin America and India to make up the loss of Ukrainian supply.

Price
- Indian black pepper was quoted at $ 5,800/tonne cif Europe for MG1 in the week ending on 10 March, unchanged from November 2021, according to IHS Markit.
- India’s cumin seed spot prices averaged INR 20,890/quintal ($273.2/quintal) at the Unjha market (Gujarat, North West) on 14 March 2022, 3% more than on 15 February.

Mar 18 - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- US green coffee stocks fall to seven-year low in February
- Brazilian coffee crop projected 8% higher y/y
- Indonesia’s robusta coffee exports fell by 54.2% y/y

Production
- Brazil’s coffee production, in the upcoming 2022/23 season, is to reach 61.1 million 60-kg bags, 8% more than in 2021/22, but 12% below the record seen in 2020/21, consultancy Safras & Mercado said. Safras projected the arabica crop at 38.8 million bags, 11% more than in 2021/22 but 23% below 2020/21. Robusta production was seen at 22.3 million bags, 3% more than in 2021/22.

Demand
- US green coffee stocks in port warehouses fell by 30,493 60-kg bags during February 2022, to reach 5,765,348 bags at the end of the month, according to the Green Coffee Association (GCA). Stocks were down 0.4% from 5,790,571 bags at the same time in 2021 and at the lowest level for the month since 2015.
- Howard Schultz is returning to lead Starbucks Corp. for a third time, saying the company he helped become the world's largest coffee chain needs to reinvent itself once more. Schultz, will take over as chief executive again on 4 April, as the chain confronts rising costs, challenges in its Chinese and Russian markets, and an expanding unionization push among US baristas.

Trade
- Indonesia’s robusta coffee exports from the Sumatran province of Lampung fell by 54.2% to 150,458 60-kg bags in February 2022, from 328,375 bags in the same month last year. Shipments were down sharply from 15,684 tonnes in January. Exports in the first 11 months of the 2021/22 season were down 15.6% at 3.092 million bags.
- Brazil’s green coffee exports in February 2022 reached 3.146 million 60-kg bags, 14.3% less than a year ago but slightly up from the previous month as global trade logistics improved, Cecafe said. Arabica shipments reached 3.016 million bags, down 10.2% year on year, while robusta coffee exports fell 58.6% to around 129,800 bags.

Price
- Coffee futures dropped this week on improved outlook for coming harvest in Brazil. May arabica contract settled down 1.40 cents at 216.10 cents per pound on March 17, while May robusta settled down $9 at $2,139 per tonne, after trading a $2,123-2,161 range.
- In Vietnam, farmers in the Central Highlands sold coffee beans at VND40,200-42,000 ($1.76-1.84) per kg, up from last week's range of VND39,200-41,300. Traders offered 5% black and broken grade 2 robusta at a discount of $220-240 per tonne, compared with a $300 discount last week.

Mar 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With a range of GBP 45 / July 22, it was another extremely volatile trading day. All markets continue to wrestle with the current geopolitical situation, inflation and another Covid wave. The July 22, with a low of GBP 1704, tested GBP 1700 support on several occasions yesterday. Scattered buying interest from the industry (especially for the later dates), as well as a weak British pound, provided support.

- Volume was decent at just over 53K lots, with more than half coming from spread trading. The July 22 ended the day weak at GBP -19 at GBP 1724. 61,260 mt changed hands at the expired March 22. Of this, just under half were Nigeria (27k mt), followed by Cameroon (23k mt) and ivory (10k mt).

Mar 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- As often after significant price movements, the cocoa market in London yesterday allowed itself a breather. The Mar22 left an open interest of 6k lots before leaving the board slightly up at GBP 1719 at midday. In the wake of this, the new front Jul/May22 spread came under pressure and lost GBP 8, closing GBP -27.

- Overall, London traded in a range of GBP 23 and only managed a pitiful volume of 16k lots. Close May 22 GBP 1716 (-8), Jul 22, new 2nd month, at 1739 (-1). Moderate buying interest from the industry provided enough support to avoid a further slide, but the speculative longs did not want to play along, which is why a significant strengthening failed to materialize. It seemed that most players preferred to watch from the sidelines instead of stepping onto the pitch, which is why the game ended in a tie. The expected interest rate turnaround by the Fed did not provide any impulses.

Mar 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- On the second trading day of the week, cocoa joined the further commodity market (Ldn Cocoa -3.3%, Crude Oil -6%, Arabica coffee -3.5%, Ldn Sugar -1.4%). After an already weak start to trading, what followed were increased sales during the further course of the day. Opening GBP 1783 base May 22, trading within a range of GBP 78, closing then GBP 59 weaker at GBP 1724. 

- Yesterday, the market continued to follow the trend of declining open interest. -16,500 lots in 6 days, which underlines the increase in short covering.

- On the financial side, the focus today is on the Fed's interest rate decision, as well as for London Cococa the Ldn Mar 22 position, and thus the primary position of the main crop hedges. How May's approach to July 22 spreads now develops remains exciting. 

Mar 15  - Indian cumin prices stabilised around INR 21,000/quintal (IHSmarkit)

- Exports stagnant y/y in January 2022
- Bangladesh and the UAE were the main importers

- India’s cumin seed spot prices averaged INR20,890/quintal ($273.2/quintal) at the Unjha market (Gujarat, North West) on 14 March 2022, 3% more than on 15 February. Cumin seed exports reached 14,724 tonnes valued at $31.5 million in January 2022, 158 tonnes less year-on-year in volume and 8% more y/y in value, according to customs data.

- Bangladesh and the UAE were the main importers, accounting for 27% and 11%, respectively.

- The 2021-22 cumin crop is expected to fall by 20-25% despite favourable weather due to a drastic cut in the planted area (to 930,000 hectares from 993,000 ha previously), after many farmers decided to switch into other spices due to low prices for cumin seed in the previous season, according to Olam Spices in its latest market update.

- The updated daily futures market price on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) was:

    INR20,890/quintal in March 2022 closed on 11 March 2022, 2% less than on 14 February
    INR21,140/quintal for deliveries in April 2022 on 11 March 2022, 2% less
    INR21,320/quintal for deliveries in May 2022 on 11 March, INR150 less
    INR21,550/quintal for deliveries in June 2022 on 11 March, 7% more
    INR21,780/quintal for deliveries in July 2022 on 11 March, 1% less than on 2 March

Mar 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The start of the week offered no major highlights - range GBP 25, moderate volume of just under 17k lots. The test of resistance at GBP 1800 triggered price hedge selling and thus could not hold out. The end result was a slightly weaker close at GBP 1783 basis May 22 (GBP -5). Mar 22 goes off the board tomorrow. This week, meetings of both the FED, as well as the Bank of England and thus two important interest rate decisions are pending.

- The GBP is already trading weaker against the Euro today at 0.8443.

- Arrivals from Ivory Coast last week are reported at 40k mts vs. 30kmts in the same week last year. According to this information, the current harvest to date would be 1.62 million mts, 1.4% above last year's record harvest

Mar 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With only one pound above the previous day's 4-week highs, the air was clearly out on Friday. In the rally seen for 2 weeks, which gave us a gain of almost GBP 150 and high daily ranges, we were given a day's break. The May 22 corrected, with volume continuing to be below average in the afternoon, and ended the day at GBP -16 at GBP 1788. On 16.03 the March 22 LDN goes off the board. The near March / May 22 spread traded in a range of GBP -20, to level money and continued to cause amazed / confused looks.

- Comitment of Traders show only an increase in net long position from 1,521 lots to 63,783 lots long. With an increase of more than GBP 85 (in the reporting period), we had expected more...

Mar 11  - Asia Coffee Vietnam domestic prices edge higher on global price recovery (Reuters)
- Vietnam's domestic coffee prices edged up on Thursday from a week earlier, tracking a recovery in Robusta futures on ICE as exporters halted shipments to Russia over payment and logistics problems related to the Ukraine conflict. The London ICE May contract settled up $23 or 1% at $2,117 per tonne on Wednesday after having hit 6-month low last week. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold coffee at 39,200-41,300 dong ($1.72-$1.81) per kg, higher than 38,900-41,000 dong range last week.

- Traders and exporters said most shipping companies had suspended delivery services to Russia, while Russia-based clients struggled to make payments and send documents and invoices via banks.
"We've halted all shipments to Russia and are in active talks to cancel some orders sealed with Russia-based clients before," said an exporter based in Ho Chi Minh City.
"Rouble is plummeting, shipping rates are rising, conflict is escalating, and our profit is nearing zero," the exporter said.

- A trader based in the coffee belt also raised concerns over rising fertilizer prices resulting from sanctions on Russia.
"The pandemic has pushed fertilizer prices to 2-2.5 times higher, now with tightening supplies, production cost will keep mounting."

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount of $300 per tonne to the July contract, compared with last week's $325 discount.
- In Indonesia's Lampung province, one trader offered $200 discount to the March contract, unchanged from two weeks ago. Another trader said beans were offered at $100-$110 discount to the April to May contracts, compared with $170 discount to the March to April contracts before holiday.
"We may have a mini harvest this April, so those who still have remaining beans are releasing old stocks," one of the traders said.

($1 = 22,840 dong)

Mar 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After an unchanged opening, further exit of the "shorts" caused a significant rise in prices. The May 22 put GBP 40 and traded at new 4-week highs of GBP 1807. In the afternoon, the market calmed down, hedging pressure from the origin then caused a slight correction. Closing price May 22 GBP +30 at GBP 1804. New York lost, in the last minutes, almost $ 50. Ended the day still positive with $ +20 at $ 2683. The funds / specs are currently the only ones providing liquidity, but this mainly on the highs / lows of the current large daily ranges. Significantly larger daily movements can still be expected.

Mar 11  - Brazil fuel price spike seen reducing global sugar supply
A sharp fuel price hike effective on Friday in Brazil could drive a sizeable reduction in the amount of sugar the country -the world's largest supplier - will ship abroad during the new crop season that starts in April, according to experts. They said that the move by Brazil's oil company Petrobras to increase gasoline prices by nearly 19%, tracking oil's price surge amid war in Ukraine, will yank ethanol prices higher. In turn, that will drive Brazilian mills to produce more of the biofuel at the expense of sugar.

Mar 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- While a sharp upside breakout failed the day before (especially in the last hour on Tuesday), an attempted collapse in prices yesterday was also prevented. The May 22 found good selling pressure around GBP 1780 (yesterday's high GBP 1782), then corrected to lows of GBP 1753. Closing GBP +6 at GBP 1774.

- Cocoa, once again, eluded the rest of the commodities. Led by crude oil (-17%), almost all markets corrected more or less significantly....

Mar 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Right at the start, the May 22 broke through the next resistance at GBP 1765 and, with a high of GBP 1794, made its way towards GBP 1800 resistance. Only in the last hour did the market correct. The May 22 ended the day "only" GBP +10 at GBP 1768. A week before the last trading day of the March 22 position, the last shorts said goodbye to their position. The close March / May 22 spread narrowed from GBP -50 to GBP -25, closing GBP -30.

- A look at yesterday's volume makes this move more apparent, with more than a third of yesterday's volume coming exclusively from spread trading. Industrial and origin continue to be absent at current levels.

Mar 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- While the London futures market found good support on the 200-day moving average (GBP 17336 / May 22) in the morning, the markets firmed in the afternoon. London moved much slower, at the peak, than NY with a high of GBP 1765 and a close of GBP 1758 / GBP +15. This resulted in a historic low in the arbitrage of GBP -250 LDN / NY discount.

- Côte d'Ivoire arrivals as of 06.03 at 1.62mn mt vs. 1.53mn mt from a year ago / +5.7%. October to end-January cocoa bean exports are 12% below last year, while cocoa product exports are up 4%.

- A large chocolate manufacturer in the premium segment published organic growth of 13.3% for 2021 compared to the pandemic-driven year 2020. Compared to 2019, growth still stands at 6.4%, and the gap to 2020 has been completely closed.

Mar 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The London market in particular refused to follow the rise in the general commodity environment until late afternoon. Then, late in the afternoon, the resistance succumbed and the May 22 literally soared to highs of GBP 1745.

- New York, unsurprisingly, rose more sharply and ended the day with $ +58 at $2620. As of 01.03, the Commitment of Traders saw what at first glance appeared to be a significant shift in position. Managed Money halved their speculative position by a good 26k lots to just under 27k lots long. As in the weeks before, this consisted in New York of almost equal parts of an "exit" of the longs and fresh shorts.

- The specs / funds are currently unwilling to take on significant risk. Combined, both markets stand at a net long position of 62,262 lots.

Mar 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- On light volume, the London market consolidated yesterday at levels around GBP 1700. The May 22 forward traded in a range of GBP 1685 / 1706 and ended the day GBP +6 at GBP 1701. New York was more volatile with a range of $ 64 and was more clearly up $ 33, closing May 22 $ 2562.

- Purchases in Ghana are at 430,000mt vs. 733,000 / -41.3% as of 10.02! Côte d'Ivoire launches a pilot project in April to trace cocoa back to the farm. Based on GPS data, this system should be much more compatible and universally applicable than previously implemented systems.

Mar 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The firm close from the previous day in NY and an expected firmer opening LDN of GBP +20 provided a strong start yesterday, right at the beginning. The May 22 in London quickly traded to yesterday's highs of GBP 1712, supported by a (again) firm commodity environment, which "exceptionally" also included our small cocoa market yesterday at times / sporadically, as well as tentative price hedging by the industry. Closing price May 22 GPB +12 at GBP 1680.

- Driven mainly by wheat and crude oil, the Bloomberg Commodity Index continued to rise strongly and is now trading at prices last seen in mid-2014.

Mar 03  - Coffee traders seeking advance payment in new deals with Russia
Coffee traders are seeking advance payment in any new deal to sell beans to Russia as Western sanctions hit the financial system of the world's sixth largest importer. Traders in Brazil, the world's largest exporter and No. 1 supplier to Russia, said they have added the country to a list of risky and sanctioned destinations that require pre-payment, including Syria, Lebanon and Iran.

Mar 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Yesterday, various forces in the cocoa market worked together to create another dynamic trading day with handsome volume of 53k lots. First, good selling pressure was found after a firm opening in London, ignoring the weak New York previous day's close. This brought new shorts on board, as well as those who sought protection in other commodities in uncertainty of the current overall situation. The expiring March 22 options also contributed, but only represented a volume of around 3600 lots.

- And the firm USD in the face of increased Russian military presence also put NY under pressure, and London followed on its heels, losing a good 1.5% to new lows before more buying support was found.

- The arbitrage ran around GBP 25 apart in the process. The May 22 closed GBP 19 above the day's lows at GBP 1683 (-7). Today, the USD is once again trading firm. Any further forecast seems impossible.

Mar 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Right at the beginning of the week, prices came under further pressure and the 2nd month lost GBP 35 within the first 30 minutes. The May 22 hit a low of GBP 1688 yesterday and is moving towards the early January lows of GBP 1676, where further support can be expected. The closer the other dates move to GBP 1700, the more price-hedging activity on the part of the industry for 22/23. Closing price May 22 GBP -39 at GBP 1690. The funds / specs continue to stick to their motto, out of the longs, into the shorts.

- The ICCO expects a deficit of 181,000mt for the current 21/22 harvest and lines up "in the middle" of previous expectations. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as of 27.02 are at 1.576mt vs. 1.508mt (+4.5%).

Feb 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After a brief firming of GBP 20 in the early morning and highs of GBP 1744 / May 22 (same highs as previous day), it was a subdued end to the week on low volume. The May 22 ended the day almost unchanged at GBP -5 at GBP 1729. The March / May and May / July 22 spreads both hit new lows at GPB -56 / -36. Managed money liquidated longs of almost identical size as of 22.02. and, on the other hand, took up fresh shorts, which were gladly taken up by the industry to hold cover, at a loss of GBP 100 in the reporting period after all. The combined long position still stands at 93,759 lots.

Feb 25  - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- Colombian coffee production at 868,000 tonnes 60-kg bags in January
- Vietnamese coffee exports in January hit 163,324 tonnes 60-kg bags
- US green coffee stocks fell by 37,851 60-kg bags in January

Production
- Colombian coffee production in January 2022 reached 868,000 60-kg bags, down 19.7% y/y, due to unfavorable weather conditions. This brought total production in the first four months of 2021/22 to 4.3 million bags, down 19% y/y. The country’s production could rise to some 13.2 million 60-kg bags in calendar 2022, which would be 5% higher than the 7-year low of 12.5 million produced in 2021.
- Brazilian coffee farmers sold 32% of the expected 2022/23 output by 8 February, ahead of the 21% seen at this time a year ago but up only 1 percentage point from the previous month, Safras & Mercado said. Arabica coffee sales reached 37% of estimated production, against 28% in the same period last year, while robusta sales were seen at 19%, also outpacing the 9% recorded at this time in 2021.

Demand
- US green coffee stocks in port warehouses fell by 37,851 60-kg bags during January 2022 to reach 5,795,841 bags at the end of the month. Stocks were down 0.8% from 5,843,171 bags at the same time in 2021.
- Tenderable robusta stocks fell by a further 383 ten-tonne lots to 9,061 (around 1.510 million 60-kg bags) in the three weeks to 8 February. Robusta stocks have fallen by 1.159 million bags since 19 May when they peaked at 16,017 lots. Arabica certified stocks fell to 999,019 bags on February 22, the first time in at least 22 years that exchange stock levels fell below the 1-million-bag mark.
- Nestlé saw organic growth of 7.5% in its full-year results, with the largest contributor being coffee. Sales of Starbucks products grew by 17.1% to reach CHF3.1 billion. Starbucks itself, also posted largely positive first quarter results, with net revenues up 19% to $8.1 billion.

Trade
- Vietnam exported 163,324 tonnes of coffee in January 2022, compared with 169,349 in December and 160,503 in the same month last year. This brought total coffee exports in the first four months of 2021/22 to 539,395 tonnes, up from 475,303 tonnes in the same period a year ago.
- Brazilian green coffee exports in January 2022 dropped by 14% y/y to 2.905 million 60-kg bags from 3.381 million in the same month last year. This was the lowest volume for the month of January since 2018.
- Ugandan coffee exports in January 2022 totaled only 402,212 60-kg bags, down 9.8% from 445,920 bags in the same month last year and sharply below the 500,000 bags projected last month.

Price
- Arabica coffee futures rose to their highest since September 2011, boosted by supply concerns, with exchange certified stocks falling to their lowest level in more than 20 years. The May arabica contract settled at 258.45 cents per pound, after hitting a 10-year high of 259.65 cents on February 9. It had fallen as low as 230.90 cents on 28 January, meaning it gained nearly 29 cents in less than two weeks.
- The benchmark May robusta contract settled up $68 at $2,259 per tonne, while front-month March was up $52 at $2,270 per tonne.
- The arabica rally elevated the arabica premium over robusta to 155.38 cents per pound, up 17 cents during the past week and also a 10-year high.

Feb 25  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- 9% growth in the Guatemalan cardamom production
 - War between Ukraine and Russia is hitting Ukrainian honey exports
- Bullish prices for cumin seeds, coriander and gum Arabic due to low crops and supply chain disruptions 

Production
- The civil war in northern Ethiopia has halted planting works in many sesame farms. The 2021-22 crop reached 260,000 tonnes, 9% less year on year.
- Mexico’s 2021 honey crop has risen by 17% y/y to 63,360 tonnes thanks to bumper crops in Yucatan, Campeche, Quintana Roo and Chiapas (South East).
- Guatemala’s 2021-22 crop is expected to reach around 38,000 tonnes, 3,000 tonnes up from the previous season, due to abundant rains and acreage expansion. India’s cardamom output has risen by 14-20% y/y to 25,000-28,000 tonnes.
- The Dubai processor Al Jameel International has opened a cardamom processing plant with a total capacity of 25,000 tonnes annually. Al Jameel aims to make Dubai a global hinterland for cardamom, mainly consumed in the Middle East and India. 
- The 2021 US hemp crop was valued at $824 million, the industrial production accounting for 89%.

Demand

- Home cooking trends continue after Covid-19 lockdowns, increasing sales for multinational processors of essential oils and spices such as McCormick, Sensient Technologies and IFF (all of them in the US) and Firmenich (Switzerland).
- Strong demand for cardamom in the Middle East is fuelling prices just when importers are replenishing their stocks to secure supply during the Ramadan festival (April). 

Trade
- India’s 2021 cardamom exports increased by 85% y/y in volume to 11,290 tonnes, a record, valued at $206.6 million, up from 206.8 million. The main importers were the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which accounted for 35% and 12%.
- Ukrainian honey shipments to the EU and the UK have halted since the week ending on 17 February after the government decreed to use most of the domestic truck fleet to transport war material to the border with Russia. Shipments slowed in the previous weeks and many wholesalers have halted quotations on Ukrainian honey until shipments resume.
- Mexico’s honey exports rose by 17% y/y in volume to 27,480 tonnes and by 76% in value to $118.6 million in January-November 2021. The main importers were Germany, the US and the UK, which accounted for 41%, 11% and 9%.
- India’s pepper exports increased by 26% y/y in volume to 21,980 tonnes, worth $98.5 million (+48% y/y) in 2021. The US was the main importer, accounting for 41%.
- Indian cumin seed exports fell by 12% y/y to 242,083 tonnes, worth $484.8 million, 9% less y/y in value, in 2021, according to customs data. Whole product sales accounted for 95% of the total. China was the main importer and took 27% of the volume.
- Ethiopia’s sesame seed exports reached 186,860 tonnes, worth $286.2 million, 25% less y/y in volume and 21% less in value, in 2021. The main importers were Israel, the UAE and Vietnam, accounting for 29%, 24% and 12%, respectively.

Price
- India’s cumin seed spot prices averaged INR20,441.20/quintal ($270.1/quintal) at the Unjha market (Gujarat, North West) on 14 February 2022, 19% more than on 17 January.
- The Indian coriander spot price averaged INR10,387/quintal ($139/quintal) at the Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 21 February, 7% more than on 24 January.
- Sudanese gum Arabic price has averaged $2,400/tonne fob this February, up from $2,100/tonne in January despite shipment paralysis as European and US processors have spent their carry-over stocks.
- The Madagascar minimum official vanilla price remains at $250 per kilo fob. Buyers are looking for extraction grades around $175/kg fob and gourmet grades around $195-200/kg fob, according to trading sources.

Feb 25  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- Australian almond crop forecast to rise by 13%
- South Africa lowers outlook for raisin crop
- Turkish dried apricot exports 2% ahead for the 1 August 2021-February 5 2022 period

Production
- Australia’s 2022 almond output is expected to increase by 13% y/y to 140,000 tonnes.
- Australia’s 2022 macadamia production is expected to rise by 7% y/y to 54,930 in-shell tonnes 3.5% moisture (58,900 in-shell tonnes, 10% moisture).
- Chile’s commercial 2022 prune crop is expected to reach 70,000 tonnes, double that of the previous season.
- South Africa has lowered its 2022 raisins crop forecast to 65,000 tonnes (72,000 tonnes farmers’ stock) from 78,000 marketable tonnes (86,000 tonnes farmers’ stock) previously due to heavy rainfalls and floods since the start of 2022. The initial forecast was based on vineyard conditions towards the end of 2021.
- Thai tropical dried fruit producer Chinwong Food reports that it is difficult to maintain production volumes due to labour shortages arising from continued national restrictions on the movement of people between different regions as part of measures to limit the spread of Covid-19.

Demand
- Desiccated coconut continues to attract good demand, reflected in export statistics for the Philippines and Indonesia
- Logistical issues are undermining coverage on US almonds and walnuts, with seasonal shipments lower on both these commodities (see Trade below).
- Despite continued price increases, Turkish dried apricots are maintaining relatively steady demand. The industry would of course prefer to generate additional buying interest in this dried fruit which remains at a lower traded volume than most other dried fruits.

Trade
- Philippines desiccated coconut exports rose by 12.4% y/y to 163,270 tonnes, worth $396.9 million (+56% y/y), a record, in January-November 2021, thanks to high prices.
- Indonesian desiccated coconut exports reached 139,930 tonnes from January-November 2021, 9.2% more y/y, worth USD216.6 million, 35% more, another record.
- Total US almond shipments were at 1.23 billion lbs for the August 2021-January 2022 period from 1.47 billion lbs a year ago – a fall of 16.3%.
- Californian walnut shipments fell by 15% y/y to 53.5 million in-shell basis pounds this January, bringing seasonal sales (September-January) to 311.5 million lbs, 21% less y/y.
- Ukrainian walnut exports reached 29,300 tonnes in January-November 2021, 11% less y/y. In recent weeks, Ukrainian walnut sales to the EU have slowed due to conflict with Russia.
- Indian cashew exports rose by 21% y/y in volume to 80,770 tonnes and by 11% in value to $466.4 million in 2021, still behind pre-pandemic levels. Indian imports of raw cashew nuts reached 874,150 tonnes in 2021, stagnant y/y.
- US pistachio sales rose by 4% y/y to 24,738 (short) tons this January, bringing seasonal (September-January) volumes to 162,489 tons (+4% y/y).
- Turkey’s dried apricot exports reached 8,441 tonnes in the week ending on 5 February 2022, five times more y/y, bringing seasonal sales (1 August 2021-5 February 2022) to 52,765 tonnes valued at $227.7 million, 2% more y/y in volume and 36% more in value.

Price
- The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has announced a price of TRY39 ($44.33) for in-shell hazelnuts (TRY78 shelled) to sell to the domestic market.
- Turkish dried apricot prices continue to increase following a sharp rise in production costs and strong demand with global buyers undeterred by rising prices. In the week ending 5 February Turkish whole dried apricots were quoted at $5,085/tonne fob, 2% more m/m and 41% more y/y. Cut dried apricots were listed at $3,109/tonne fob, 12% less m/m and 22% more y/y.

Feb 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Our "little cocoa world" was also, understandably, in a kind of shock paralysis yesterday.

- The cocoa market did not follow most commodities (esp. wheat / oil / fats) upwards, correcting by more than GBP 30 at the peak and thus making up for all the gains of the previous day. The May 22 traded back in an impressive range of GBP 1713 / 1744 and found good buying interest from the industry towards yesterday's lows.

- The US government's announcement of tough sanctions allowed the Dow Jones to stabilise. The US cocoa market promptly followed suit and also rallied, closing only $ -48 / 2616 (at times the market was $ 80 down). Closing price LDN May 22 GBP -18 at GBP 1734.

Feb 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The result of a Reuters poll, according to which a deficit of 150k mt for the current crop 2021/22 and an increase in cocoa prices by the end of the year of over GBP 160 is expected, triggered sizeable buying interest and increased short covering shortly after opening.

- London gained more than GBP 60 and left the highs of the previous day as well as the technical resistances of the 200- and 100-day moving averages behind without any resistance.

- New York barely kept up, which caused the arbitrage to narrow by around GBP 20. It was not until the daily highs at GBP 1776 basis May 22 that sufficient selling pressure set in. May 22 closed at GBP 1752 (+28). With GBP +40 in 2 days, the free fall of the last few days is over.

Feb 23  - Sudanese gum Arabic and sesame prices are rising despite shipment paralysis (IHSmarkit)

- Gum Arabic processors are raising bid prices as carry-over stocks are falling
- Sesame prices are growing due to supply shortage in East Africa
- Chinese peanut purchases are at minimum levels

- Port Sudan activity is still halted as sea shipping services are still at minimum levels, trading sources told IHS Markit. Empty containers are in exceptionally short supply and new bookings are highly restricted since October 2021, the commercial director of FAAS Trade & Investment, Fares Oufi, explained.

- The government is not allowing to export outside Sudan, for example through Egyptian ports in the Suez route, blockading short-term solutions.
- Gum Arabic processors are available to pay higher prices than in January as they are gradually using up their carry-over stocks.
- Sesame prices are still firm due to product shortage. Meanwhile, peanut prices are still low as Chinese imports remain limited.

- Quotations for new season gum Arabic and peanut have been recorded in the region of:

    Gum Arabic Hashab, $2,400/tonne fob this February, up from $2,100/tonne fob in January
    Peanuts Spanish type, 70/80 at $1,150/tonne fob, $50 more than in January
    Sesame (whitish), $2,450/tonne

Feb 23  - Vietnamese January 2022 cashew kernel exports below year-ago levels (IHSmarkit)

- Shipments to the US were 8% higher but volumes to China plunged 73%
- Heavy rains raise concerns for crop yields
- Strong demand at local level in the last week

- Vietnamese cashew kernel exports were 12.7% down this January from those of the same month a year ago at 41,768 tonnes despite an 8.3% boost in shipments to the US at 11,428 tonnes.
- Shipments to China plummeted 73.6% to 1,445 tonnes while those to the EU and other destinations declined 9.2% to 28,895 tonnes.
- Ho Chi Minh City-based supplier Golden Bridge observed that there are daily heavy rains in the main cashew orchards of Binh Phuoc province which is creating some confusion that yield of this year will be less and therefore not as good as predicted. However, the company cautioned that it is too early to know anything definite.
- In the last week there was positive trading with good demand and transactions, Golden Bridge explained. Sales were confirmed for WW320s around $2.75-2.80/lb fob and for WW240s around $3.0-3.10/lb fob.
“The local market is rebounding and raw cashew nuts that were pushed higher are supporting prices,” Golden Bridge added.

Feb 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After 7 consecutive days of weakness (and a correction of just over GBP 150), the market found good support towards GBP 1700. The May 22 still corrected slightly in the morning to new 6-week lows of GBP 1705, price hedges from the industry and a generally firmer commodity environment (driven mainly by the energy sector) led to the corresponding countermovement. May 22 closed GBP +12 at GBP 1724. Close May / July 22 lost GBP 6 but continues to trade at a comfortable premium of GBP +40. The LDN / NY arbitrage continues to widen. London is now trading at a discount of GBP -231, up from "only" GBP -180 earlier this month

Feb 22  - Robust increase in Indian coriander prices (IHSmarkit)

- 7% increase in spot prices
- Futures prices crossed the INR11,000/quintal level

- The Indian coriander spot price averaged INR 10,387 ($ 139/quintal) at Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 21 February, 7% more than on 24 January. Indian exports fell by 3% y/y in volume to 51,780 tonnes but increased by 4% in value to $64.9 million in 2021, according to customs data.
- The main importers were Malaysia, Nepal and the UAE, which took 23%, 13% and 9%, respectively.
- The updated daily futures market price on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) was:

    INR 11,068/quintal for deliveries in April 2022 on 18 February, 9% more than on 19 January
    INR 11,182/quintal for deliveries in May 2022 on 18 February, 10% more
    INR 11,296/quintal for deliveries in June 2022 on 18 February, 10% more
    INR 11,410 for deliveries in July 2022 on 18 February, 13% more than on 1 February

Feb 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With no involvement from the New York market, further hedge pressure from the origin, as well as a firm British pound, caused another correction in London. The May 22 LDN successfully broke through the support of the 200 day moving average (GBP 1724), as well as the next one at GBP 1714, and continues on its way towards GBP 1700. Closing price, at yesterday's lows, GBP -20 at GBP 1712. The May / July 22 spread makes a new low at GBP -36. In 7 days London has now lost GBP 144 or 7.7%.

- Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as of 20.02 at 1.528 mt vs. 1.474 mt (+3.7%)

Feb 22  - Egypt said to buy 100,000 tonnes raw sugar in tender – traders
Egypt's state sugar buyer ESIIC is believed to have purchased around 100,000 tonnes of raw sugar in an international tender which closed on Saturday, European traders said on Monday. It was bought in two 50,000 tonne consignments, both at an estimated $470 a tonne c&f, they said.

Feb 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The stormy weather conditions in Europe at the end of the week did not spill over to the cocoa market. On the contrary, fatigue spread as a result of the active past trading days.

- With one leg in the weekend, and in view of a renewed gale force low with the mind perhaps elsewhere, London produced by noon just 1500 lots volume. In the afternoon, scattered long liquidations brought the market under pressure, but the necessary enthusiasm was absent. As on the previous day, the May22 tested technical support at the 200-day moving average, but closed slightly above at GBP 1732 (GBP -8).

- Committment of Traders: +18k lots increase in speculative long position (now 72k lots long). Total now 104k net long. 

Feb 21  - U.S. will immediately resume Mexican avocado imports, USDA says
The United States on Friday ended a ban on imports of avocados from Mexico's Michoacan state and restarted an agricultural inspection program it had halted out of concern for the safety of U.S. workers. In its announcement, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said imports could resume immediately.

Feb 18  - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- Colombian coffee production may rise to 13.2 million 60-kg bags in 2022
- Nescafé and Starbucks report positive financials
- US green coffee stocks fell by 37,851 60-kg bags in January

Production
- Colombian coffee production could rise to some 13.2 million 60-kg bags in calendar 2022, which would be 5% higher than the 7-year low of 12.577 million produced in 2021, Agriculture Minister Rodolfo Zea said. Output declined by 1.313 million bags, or 9%, last year from 13.890 million in 2020 amid prolonged rain and road blockades during weeks of anti-government protests, according to the National Coffee Producers Association (FNC). Colombia’s domestic price of coffee also continues to set records and has surpassed COP 2,307 per 125-kg bag for the first time in history, according to local press reports.

Demand
- Swiss-multinational Nestlé saw organic growth of 7.5% in its full-year results, supported by continued momentum in retail sales, steady recovery of out-of-home channels and increased pricing. By product category, the largest contributor to organic growth was coffee, fueled by strong momentum for the three main brands Nescafé, Nespresso and Starbucks. Sales of Starbucks products grew by 17.1% to reach CHF3.1 billion, generating over CHF1 billion of incremental sales compared with 2018.
- Starbucks itself posted largely positive first quarter results as the Omicron variant, rising inflation and staff shortages continue to create a challenging trading environment globally. Total net revenues grew 19% to $8.1 billion, with net profits growing 31% to reach $816 million over the period.

Trade
- US green coffee stocks in port warehouses fell by 37,851 60-kg bags during January 2022 to reach 5,795,841 bags at the end of the month, according to the Green Coffee Association (GCA). Stocks were down 0.8% from 5,843,171 bags at the same time in 2021. The data includes both the coffee in ICE exchange warehouses and volumes kept by other market participants at US ports.

Price
- Coffee futures were settling higher this week, as the market continues to be underpinned by reduced global availability. By mid-week, the May arabica contract settled 0.95 cents higher at 252.70 cents per pound, in dealings between 250.55 and 254.75 cents. The May robusta contract was up $9 at $2,274 per tonne, after trading a $2,257-2,281 range.
- Meanwhile, Pret A Manger is increasing the cost of its beverage subscription, which gives customers up to five barista-made drinks per day over a month, from GBP20 to GBP25. Existing subscribers will see their plan increase in March, whereas new customers will encounter the higher rate immediately.

Feb 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Also yesterday, the markets could not defend themselves against the generally prevailing bearish sentiment and lost once again GBP 26 basis May 22 (close GBP1740). The correction therefore continued yesterday, further long liquidations led by NY put pressure on both markets and we now rank in nowhere between the 100 (GBP1754) and 200 (GBP1735) day moving averages. It was the latter that generated sufficient buying interest yesterday afternoon and halted the selling pressure. With a loss of around GBP 70, the question is whether the slide has come to an end and whether the longs have sufficiently liquidated. The structure speaks rather for it, the May / Jul 22 spread marked a new low of GBP-29. 

Feb 17  - Asia Coffee Vietnam prices rise following London cues, Indonesia quiet (Reuters)

- Prices of Vietnamese coffee rose this week tracking cues from London while Indonesia was quiet with few deals sealed due to a surge in coronavirus cases and post-holiday sentiment, traders said on Thursday.
- Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold coffee at 40,500-42,000 dong($1.78-$1.84), up from last week's 39,900-40,600 dong range. ($1 = 22,785 dong)

- London prices settled up $9, or 0.4%, at $2,274 per tonne on Wednesday.
"Domestic prices are higher this week but farmers are just releasing beans bit by bit in anticipation of higher prices," said a trader based in the coffee belt.
"Farmers have sold around 50-60% of their stocks".

- Another trader said the weather was good, with enough water for baby coffee trees. Vietnam exported 163,324 tonnes of coffee in January, down 3.6% from December last year, official data showed. According to a Reuters poll, production in Vietnam is put at 31 million bags in the 2021/22 season, up from the 29 million bag crop seen last season.

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at discounts range of $360 per tonne to the July contract. Discount range was $250-$300 to the May contract last week.
- Meanwhile, Indonesia's Sumatran robusta beans were offered at discount of $130 to the April and May contracts, unchanged from last week's $120-$130 discounts, a trader in Lampung province said. Another trader offered $200 discount to the May contract.
"Market is still pretty quiet after the Lunar New Year holidays, together with the spike in cases due to Omicron variant," one trader said.
"There were even fewer transactions this week," the trader said, adding that only exporters with remaining stock could carry out trade while others were waiting for the upcoming harvest.

Feb 17  - Market Briefing: Fresh Fruit and Vegetables (IHSmarkit)

- US 2021/22 orange production is expected to decrease by 11% from last year
- UK organic food and beverage sales reached £3.0 billion ($4.05 billion)
- US organic potato prices are stable or decline

Production
- US 2021/22 orange production is forecast to drop 11% from last market year to a near record low 3.6 million tonnes due to poor fruit set in California and the continued decline in area and yields as a result of citrus greening in Florida.
- EU 2021/22 mandarin production is expected to fall 8% from the last marketing year to 3.0 million tonnes as a result of unfavourable weather in Spain.

Demand
- UK organic food and beverage sales grew by 5.2% y/y to £3.0 billion ($4.05 billion) in 2021, following a 13% y/y increase in 2020.
- US growers anticipate rising demand for potatoes from both the processors and export markets. Fresh potato shipments to Japan jumped 103% y/y to 54,000 tonnes in 2021. Sales to Mexico grew by 14% y/y to 125,000 tonnes in 2021; expanded market access to Mexico will generate further growth for 2022.

Trade
- In 2021, US fresh avocado imports were valued over $3.1 billion (+24% y/y), with Mexico accounting for over 91% of the total. Chilean avocado sales to the US grew by 261% y/y to $12 million. On 13 February, the US government suspended all imports of Mexican avocadoes until further notice after a US plant safety inspector in Mexico received a threat.
- China imports dragon fruit from two main origins: Vietnam and Taiwan, which totalled 586,000 tonnes in 2021, 5% down y/y, equivalent to $525 million (-5% y/y). Vietnam accounted for over 99% of the total volume.

Prices
- Kenya’s avocado average export price in 2021 was $1,700 per tonne, 25% down y/y. Tanzania’s export price was $2,400/tonne, 6% down y/y.
- On 11 February 2022, US retail weighted average prices of most fresh potato varieties rose from a year ago, but some organic went down.

Round red potatoes for 3 lb bag reached $3.83, 45% up y/y from the same time last year. Round white of 5 lb bag was $3.74, 48% y/y up; russet of 10 lb bag, was $5.04, 43% y/y up. Prices for organic variants showed a decline or minor increase. Organic round red of 3 lb bag declined by 5% y/y to $3.79, $0.04 lower than conventional of the same pack size.

Feb 17 - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- 27% increase in the Indian cardamom crop 
- Global demand for vanilla is estimated at 3,000 tonnes, exceeding the supply
- 17% growth in Cuban honey exports

Production
- There is still underlying concern that there might be damage to the Madagascan vanilla crop, after the latest storms in Madagascar, due to the excess moisture that was the inevitable result of the adverse weather. The current (2021-22) global crop is available in good volume, being estimated at 2,200-2,300 tonnes of cured beans.
- India’s 2021-22 cardamom crop is expected to rise by 27% y/y to 28,000 tonnes, due to acreage expansion with farmers encouraged by high prices reached in 2020. 
- Cuba’s 2021 honey crop has grown by 28% y/y to 10,500 tonnes, according to the Cuban honey company (Apicuba). This expansion was due to favourable weather and rising prices paid in the international market.

Demand
- The annual global demand for vanilla is estimated at 3,000 tonnes, exceeding the current supply
- Demand for spices and essential oil is completely recovered as processors’ results reveal. The US processor Sensient Technologies has reported that its revenues rose by 10% to $229.7 million in Q4 2021. IFF’s net sales reached $3.03 billion (+139% y/y) in Q4 2021, bringing 2021 sales to $11.65 billion, 129% more y/y, once the company has completed the merger with Nutrition & Biosciences (N&B). 
- Middle East importers of cardamom are raising purchasers to cover the high demand for this spice during the Ramadan festival (April).

Trade
- India’s 2021 cardamom exports increased by 85% y/y in volume to 11,290 tonnes, a record, valued at $206.6 million, up from $206.8 million.
- Indian pepper exports increased by 26% y/y in volume to 21,980 tonnes, worth $98.5 million (+48% y/y) in 2021.
- Cuba’s honey exports reached 8,529 tonnes in 2021, 17% more y/y.

Prices
- For the time being, the Madagascar government set minimum official vanilla price remains at $250 per kg fob. However, buyers are looking for extraction grades around $175/kg fob and gourmet grades around $195-200/kg fob. Some of these bids are proving successful.
- India’s cumin seed spot prices averaged INR20,441.20/quintal ($270.1/quintal) at the Unjha market (Gujarat, North West) on 14 February 2022, 19% more than on 17 January.

Feb 17 - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- South Africa forecast for 8% increase in macadamia output
- Chile set for major rebound in prune crop
 - TMO announces hazelnut price

Production

- Australia’s 2022 almond output is expected to increase by 13% to 140,000 tonnes.
- In California, the first almond bloom flowers are beginning to open across the state as trees wake from their winter dormancy.
- Severe winter drought is damaging the almond crop in Spain.
- South Africa’s 2022 macadamia nut crop is expected to exceed that of last year by about 8%, reaching 57,723 dry nut-in-shell tonnes versus 53,230 tonnes previously. Australia’s 2022 macadamia crop is also expected to be bigger and should reach more than 60,000 tonnes.
- Brazil’s 2021 cashew production fell by 21% y/y to 110,669 tonnes due to a combination of lower average rainfall and cut in planted area, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
- Chile’s commercial prune crop is expected to reach 70,000 tonnes, two times more than in the previous season. Average temperatures and water supply has been favourable, trees enjoying a successful flowering. However, an estimated volume of around 3,000 tonnes was damaged by heatwaves.
- Raisins South Africa has lowered its 2022 crop forecast to 65,000 tonnes marketable tonnes (72,000 farmers’ stock tonnes) from its earlier projection of 78,000 tonnes (86,000 tonnes farmers’ stock) due to adverse weather over the past month, with heavy rainfalls since the start of 2022, along with looming flooding conditions.

Demand
- Cashew industry sources commented this week that demand is going well.
- Slow demand from India and the Middle East for in-shell walnuts have been cited as the main factors behind the 47% overall decline in US walnut shipments this January.
- Australian almonds continue to attract strong demand, as demonstrated by shipment data (see Trade below). Coverage on US almonds is being thwarted by ongoing logistical problems.

Trade
- Australia’s almond shipments reached 6,160 kernel weight equivalence (KWE) tonnes in December 2021, 6% more y/y. Seasonal sales (March-December) totalled 81,850 tonnes (+14% y/y).
- Total US almond shipments for the first six months of 2021-22 (August-January) declined 16.3% y/y to 1.23 billion lbs from 1.47 billion lbs previously. Domestic shipments were virtually stagnant at 391.7 million lbs from 390.1 million lbs in 1H 2020-21 but export shipments fell to 847.2 million lbs against 1.08 billion lbs earlier as logistical issues hampered sales.
- Chilean 2021 prune exports reached 49,450 tonnes (23% less than in 2020).

Price
- Vietnamese cashew kernel prices are typically ranging between $2.70-2.90 per lb fob currently, local sources report. One Vietnam supplier observed that WW320 around $2.70-2.75/lb fob from Haccp and medium Brc packers was sold well for March, April, and May shipments.
- The Turkish Grain Board has announced a price of TRY39 ($44.33) for in-shell hazelnuts (TRY78 shelled) to sell to the domestic market. With a quite stable Turkish lira in the last seven weeks, export prices are very likely to increase.

Feb 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With a loss of -2.4%, London marked the anticipated correction yesterday. After initially good support and a firming up to the daily highs of GBP 1820 base May 22, nothing happened for a long time. It continued to look like an uneventful trading day in moderate range and low volume. It was not until late afternoon that New York began to slide under the pressure of ongoing long liquidations. In the last 60 minutes of the day, the momentum grew and dragged London with it. It went down almost 50 points here before buying interest kicked in and provided sufficient support. The May 22 closed at GBP 1766 (-43) and is on heading for the technical support of the 100-day moving average at GBP 1754.

Feb 16  - Vanilla market mostly unmoved by recent spate of stormy weather in Madagascar (IHSmarkit)

- Traders are warily watching future weather developments
- Demand is running strongly
- Madagascar’s 2022 crop expected to be substantially smaller than that of 2021
- Indonesian crop will be a poor one

- The international vanilla market appears to be largely stable for the time being despite recent cyclones and tropical storms in key origin Madagascar. However, there is still underlying concern that there might be damage due to the excess moisture that was the inevitable result of the adverse weather.
- Douglas Daugherty, president of the Vanilla Corporation of America, told IHS Markit: “The last cyclone and tropical storm to hit Madagascar missed the main vanilla bean growing areas of the country. However, some of these vanilla growing areas did receive a lot of rain from these storms. So, in the short term, the main vanilla growing areas were not too adversely effected. But, in the longer term, water logged soils in the vanilla plantations can help to form and spread fusarium disease to the vanilla vines. Time will tell.”
- Similarly, Fanny Grymonprez, marketing manager of Eurovanille, reported that Eurovanille suppliers confirmed there was no rain in Sava or the Maroantsetra district. “The south of the county was affected by floods,” she observed. Grymonprez noted that for the time being there should be no impact on the vanilla price, “but the cyclone season isn’t over”.
“The vanilla market remains calm at the beginning of this year,” she added.
- Emmanuel Nee, head of the ingredients department at French trader Touton, remarked that the latest cyclone hit the south part of the east coast of Madagascar and therefore missed the main vanilla growing area which so far “is very safe”. However, a “huge cyclone” is forecast in Madagascar for the middle of next week. As of Wednesday the direction of this was unknown although some industry sources were indicating it would hit the northeast of the island “which would be a disaster”, Nee noted.
- The current (2021-22) crop is available in good volume, being estimated at 2,200-2,300 tonnes of cured beans.

The view from Indonesia

- Indonesia has very little carry-over inventory available and some areas of the country have started to process immature beans. Francois Bernard of Indonesian supplier Tripper said international buyers are still looking at Indonesia to lower their cost with Madagascar origin.
“We’ve had a lot of heavy rain for the past three months in all growing areas in Indonesia. We are expecting a crop of around 300 tonnes this year,” he explained. Because prices have been good for a few years farmers in Indonesia have been motivated to plant more.
- Indonesia’s harvest of vanilla planifolia runs from March-end October, depending on the altitude of the plantation. Vanilla tahitensis from Jayapura is harvested throughout the year as there are so many plantations for this variety. Bernard observed that due to poor agricultural practice (weak support trees, vines planted too close to each other) the vines come to maturity after three years but produce less than 1 kilogram and die after two years of producing. This is clearly not very sustainable. A lot of effort has to be made on the farmer side for Indonesia to produce more than 500 tonnes of vanilla per year as it used to.

Strong demand

- Frisca Maya Tamara, director of Indonesian supplier Madame Export Indonesia told IHS Markit: “The demand is very strong now, especially locally. I closed my export order for grade A or gourmet vanilla until the end of this month. All was sold out because I have only a small quantity this month for mature vanilla. But locally I have contracts for tahitensis vanilla.”

- Daugherty observed that so far, the demand for vanilla beans seems to be healthy this year.
“Madagascar had a bumper crop last year and produced between 2,300-2,500 tonnes of cured vanilla beans. Quite a few of the extraction companies thought vanilla bean pricing would decrease this year due to Madagascar's bumper vanilla bean crop last year. But that has not happened. This has buyers in the US somewhat confused and many are buying their requirements on a ‘hand to mouth’ basis,” he explained.
- Daugherty recalled that the vanilla vine flowering was poor in the Sava, Madagascar's main vanilla growing region, last year. However, the vanilla vine flowering was better in other vanilla growing regions of the country. So, this will lead to a smaller vanilla bean crop in 2022 which might be why vanilla bean prices are not decreasing as many expected, he noted.
- Nee recalled that early in the season when the vanilla beans were being cured (July-October 2021) some were expecting prices to ease due to increased output but this has not really been the case. The flowering for the 2022 crop was poor during October-December with a drop of around 30%. Even if it is too early to predict, it is feasible to expect a global production of 1,500-2,300 tonnes in 2022-23. This would be substantially short of the estimated annual demand requirement of about 3,000 tonnes. Nee suggested that Madagascar’s 2022 crop this July is likely to be in a range of 1,600-1,700 tonnes. Late flowering might also impact quality (lower yields and reduced vanillin content). Moreover, almost half of the crop has been exported already (1,100 tonnes at the end of January).

Further coverage is required

- Nee observed that demand is not covered enough for 2022 as most customers still need to purchase for Q2, Q3 and Q4, possibly even further.
“Last year the global demand was strong enough to absorb the totality of the crop at about 1,800 tonnes and we believe there is still enough demand to absorb up to 2,200 tonnes. Covid has a positive impact for consumption of vanilla products with more people cooking at home in Europe and the US,” he added.
- Nee confirmed that current demand is running well both in terms of speculators covering as well as industry buyers. Some are covering potential needs to the end of the year. Hence, even though the cyclone risk should be over by the end of March or early April, there remain plenty of bullish factors. Some suppliers at origin decided to build stock with current crop in view of the potential bullishness ahead and the bad crop expected this July. In addition, there are potential political actions in terms of minimum pricing and quality control which Nee predicted might give a speculative trend to the market this year and into 2023. “That is why we advise our customers to cover their needs for 2022 and maybe even more,” he added.

Minimum price remains in force

- For the time being the Madagascar government set minimum official price remains at $250 per kilogramme fob. Nee expects this to be raised to $300-350/kg in 2023. In addition, at the end of May 2022 the Madagascar government will impose its ban on exports, as it usually does at that time of year. Buyers are looking for extraction grades around $175/kg fob and gourmet grades around $195-200/kg fob. Some of these bids are proving successful. Already it is difficult to find quantities on the market and most of the largest exporters are speculating and waiting for the next wave of demand.

Logistical hassles

- As noted recently with cloves from Madagascar, logistics is a nightmare. Transporting goods by plane from the Sava region of Madagascar to France averages around $7-8/kg “so it is even worse to the US, where the big consumption is,” Nee observed.

- Although costly, sea freight is the lower cost option of these two. The cost of shipping by sea freight to Europe has not been increasing as much as it has for shipments to Asian destinations, but the worst thing is the transit time, Nee remarked. For example, it can take as much as three months to ship from Madagascar to France. In normal times, this was usually achieved in less than one month, or at worst, one month. The cargo goes from Madagascar to Mauritius, from the latter to Singapore, and then from there to Europe.

- Singapore port is prioritising the more expensive containers coming from elsewhere in Asia before moving on to the lower cost ones from other global destinations. Nee explained that Touton is resorting to air freight only when moving gourmet vanilla beans or if the containers are stuck somewhere in the Far East. “We always prefer to ship by boat because of carbon footprint etc.,” he added. The upward pricing potential looks strong for the coming months based on the supply and demand fundamentals and high freight costs.

Feb 16  - India closed 2021 with record exports of cardamom (IHSmarkit)

- 85% increase in exports
- Main importers: the UAE and Saudi Arabia

- Sales data confirm that the Indian farmers have been expanding production and processors did that with exports, encouraged both by high prices. India’s 2021 cardamom exports increased by 85% y/y in volume to 11,290 tonnes, a record, valued at $206.6 million, up from 206.8 million. The main importers were the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which accounted for 35% and 12% of the total volume. The 2021-22 crop is expected to grow by 36% to 15,000 tonnes.

Analysis

- The Indian spice industry has been increasing its global supply, re-exporting also production from Bhutan and Nepal encouraged by Guatemala’s booming sales and competing with each other to generate sales for the Ramadan festival campaign in the Middle East. This trend has been leading a volatile scenario between December-January, prices being dependent on the Guatemalan crop.

Feb 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With moderate volume of just under 18k lots, London allowed itself a breather today and consolidated in a narrow range of GBP 19. After a firm opening of GBP +12, direct selling pressure was found to the lows from the start of the week. However, London did not like to follow the struggling big brother in New York yesterday. The May 22 closed 3 points higher at GBP 1809, the arbitrage narrowed slightly. A correction is thus still pending.

- The markets continue to trade in overbought territory, and the question remains what would actually still generate bullish momentum. The situation in Eastern Europe has hardly affected cocoa so far. Reports from the origin, where the Ivorian farmers fear lack of rainfall - at best proportionally.

Feb 15  - Ivory Coast farmers worry dry spell will hurt cocoa mid-crop
Poor rains and hot weather last week in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa growing regions could damage the development of the April to September mid-crop, farmers said on Monday. The world's top cocoa producer is in its dry season which runs from mid-November to March. While rain is normally scarce during this period, it has been below average in recent weeks.

Feb 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Hedging pressure piled up from the origin over the weekend set negative signs right at the beginning of the day. While London still held its own in the morning, it was over after the opening in New York and the cocoa market joined almost all commodities (with the exception of oil).

- Profit-taking by specs in New York, following the significant build-up of the speculative long position, caused considerable pressure. May 22 sought and found further support only towards GBP 1800 and May 22 made a low of GBP 1802. Closing weak at GBP -42 at GBP 1806. Technically, there would be further room for a, long overdue, correction.

- Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as of 13.02 are at 1.474 mt (+3.75%).

Feb 15 - Uganda January Coffee Exports Drop 10% on Disruptions, Drought  - DJ

- Uganda's January coffee exports dropped 10% on year, weighed by lower yields due to drought and a shortage of shipping containers, the Uganda Coffee Development Authority said Tuesday. Coffee shipments dropped to 402,212 60-kilogram bags, down from the 445,920 bags exported in the same month last season, the UCDA said. However the value of the coffee exports rose by 56% to $61 million, boosted by improved global prices. The coffee regulator said that congestion at the country's border due to new coronavirus-containment measures also disrupted shipments in January.

- Uganda, Africa's top robusta coffee producer exports more coffee than any other African country. January coffee exports brought cumulative shipments since the start of the season in October to 1.95 million bags, from 1.72 million bags in the same prior-year period. Uganda's coffee year runs from October to September. Coffee earnings in the first four months of the season are 70% up on year, to a record $270 million, due to higher prices, buoyed by shortage of shipping containers in Vietnam and weather-related concerns in Brazil, the UCDA said.

- The slump in January is the first in the last four months, signs that the dry weather and pandemic-related disruptions may have started taking a toll on the crop. The United Nations warned this week that East Africa is experiencing its driest period in more than 40 years, which has decimated the region's rain-fed agriculture.

- Uganda's coffee exports jumped 21% last season, to reach a record 6.5 million bags.

Feb 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

While May 22 tested the previous day's highs (GBP 1859) in the very first minute, selling pressure then entered the markets for long stretches. A lack of volume, overbought conditions and speculators who took profits before the new CoT report caused prices to fall by almost GBP 40 to daily lows of GBP 1831. The closing price was then only GBP -9 at GBP 1848 / May 22. While the specs in London reduced 1,631 lots as of 08.02, these same specs in New York increased by 15,502 lots. Combined, both markets now have a net long position of 103,255 lots. Ghana reported new buying figures within 2 weeks, these are as of 03.02 at 408,000 (-42%). As of 27.01, there was still a minus of 44%.

Feb 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With a high yesterday of GBP 1859 / May 22, cocoa continues to make its way towards the highs from last October (GBP 1888). Although with far less momentum yesterday but with little sign of trending weakness during the day. The May 22 ended the day at GBP +9 at GBP 1857, up an impressive GBP 120 since the start of the month.

- The question what has changed fundamentally? Nothing really...Côte d'Ivoire continues to catch up (admittedly was never the problem child either), Ghana's buying figures have been abysmal for months and with every gain in the market the weather gets drier.

Feb 10  - Traders ship Asian coffee to ICE exchange as shipping logjam eases (Reuters)

- Robusta coffee from Asia to boost dwindling ICE stockpiles
- Coffee deliveries seen weighing on ICE robusta prices
- Virtually no Asia coffee has been delivered to ICE since 2018

Feb 08  -  Traders are planning to deliver thousands of tonnes of robusta coffee from Asia to the ICE futures exchange in Europe for the first time in more than three years - a move likely to take the heat out of benchmark coffee prices that are near 10-year peaks. The coffee was bought after local prices in the Asian region slumped and global shipping logjams eased.
ICE, which runs futures and equities exchanges worldwide, functions in part as a market of last resort for excess coffee, so any sign the relentless drawdown in its stockpiles is ending could lessen investor worries over supplies, prompting them to sell.

- Traders shipped at least 18,000 tonnes of robusta coffee - equal to more than a fifth of current ICE exchange stocks - from Vietnam and Indonesia in January, much of it destined for exchange-approved warehouses in Antwerp, Amsterdam and London, five sources at top global trade houses told Reuters. Vietnam is the world's top producer of robusta coffee but exchange stocks are currently dominated by supplies from number two robusta producer Brazil.

- Indonesia is the third largest robusta producer.
Trade houses including Ecom, Sucafina and Louis Dreyfus are shipping the beans at relatively low freight rates because they are using carriers known as breakbulk to export the coffee, the trade sources said, something that has not been seen for 25 years. Sucafina confirmed it was shipping robusta from Vietnam in breakbulk vessels. Louis Dreyfus declined to comment. Ecom was not immediately available to comment.

- The trade houses bought the coffee after Vietnamese and Indonesian dealers - desperate to shift stock built up over two years of shipping logjams - offered beans at record high discounts to the benchmark ICE robusta futures price, the sources said.

- Coffee is normally shipped on container vessels but rates have soared due to a shortage of available capacity brought on by restrictions to combat the coronavirus pandemic. The restrictions disrupted labour supply and caused a surge in demand for retail goods from consumers stuck at home. Traders said it has become cheaper to pile up bags of coffee in breakbulk vessels, which are commonly used for goods that cannot fit into standard-size containers. The vessels haven't been used to ship coffee for years because they require traders to ship very large cargoes and because of risks that bean quality could suffer if it rains while bags are loaded and unloaded at port.

GAME CHANGER

"Breakbulk is potentially a game changer. We're only tight because the coffee is in the wrong place," said a Swiss-based coffee trader at a global trade house. Breakbulk shipping rates fell earlier this year to as low as half that of container rates on the south-east Asia to Europe route, he said. That, coupled with the record high discounts prompted traders to snap up the coffee because they knew they would at least break-even if they delivered it to the exchange, and hit a profit if they sold it to roasters.

- Delivering robusta from Vietnam and Indonesia to the exchange has not been a break-even trade for years. ICE stocks data shows no significant deliveries of robusta from Vietnam since late 2018, and none from Indonesia in more than four years. Later this month however, commodity trader Ecom plans to deliver 5,000 tonnes of Indonesian origin robusta to the exchange, according to a source with knowledge of the matter who was not authorised to speak to Reuters. That delivery is the minimum that will land at the exchange from Indonesia and Vietnam over the next month, traders said, with the true figure likely double that and expected to pick up going forward.

- At least three more breakbulk vessels are due to leave Vietnam later this month with robusta coffee that was bought at a discount to ICE futures, according to a senior, Swiss-based trader at a global trade house.
"We see robusta prices averaging $1,950 a tonne in the second quarter (versus around $2,240 at present) assisted by large crops in Vietnam and Brazil and the facility to ship in bulk from a few routes," said Rabobank analyst Carlos Mera.

Feb 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The appetite of managed money from New York, had little to counter hedge pressure from the origin. London trailed leisurely and a little weaker, the May 22 trading to highs of GBP 1850 and ending the day firm at GBP +41 at GBP 1848, the highest close since mid-October. New York broke through its technical resistances (including at $2800) and ended the day richly up ($ +76 at $2801).  The arbitrage thus widened steadily to a discount London of GBP 225.

- All other commodities were also up, sugar up 3%, coffee up 4%...the latter hit highs yesterday last seen in 2011.

Feb 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

-During a rather quiet session, the market recovered yesterday from the losses of the previous day. Buying interest from specs/funds and hedging pressure balanced each other out yesterday. The May 22 traded in a GBP 1792/ 1813 range and ended the day, above the GBP 1800 mark, with GBP +12 at GBP 1807.

- News from the source continued to focus on Ghana yesterday. Purchases as of 27.01 stand at 383,000mt vs. 681,000 from a year ago, registering an impressive 44% drop. This is certainly a story that the bulls, in particular, are happy to take up. 

Feb 09  - Traders ship Asian coffee to ICE exchange as shipping logjam eases
Traders are planning to deliver thousands of tonnes of robusta coffee from Asia to the ICE futures exchange in Europe for the first time in more than three years - a move likely to take the heat out of benchmark coffee prices that are near 10-year peaks. The coffee was bought after local prices in the Asian region slumped and global shipping logjams eased.

Feb 09  - Sugar prices to fall, small surplus seen in 2022/23
- Poll
Raw sugar is forecast to end this year with an annual loss of nearly 6% with the global market set to shift into a surplus in the 2022/23 season, a Reuters poll of 10 traders and analysts showed on Tuesday. Prices were seen ending 2022 at 17.8 cents per lb, down 1.4% from Monday's close and 5.7% below levels at the end of 2021, according to the median forecast.

Feb 08 -  Ivory Coast Cocoa, Coffee Prices Affected by Security Situation - DJ

- Ivory Coast cocoa and coffee merchants have requested the government of the West African nation increase security in cocoa and coffee-growing localities and export routes, amid reported attacks on buyers which they say are affecting trade and pushing down prices.

- Several buyers told Dow Jones Newswires that trade has slowed because they are scared of traveling with money to buy from farmers. The situation has pushed prices below those set by the country's Coffee and Cocoa Council. Some farmers have accepted 800 CFA francs ($1.39), for a kilogram of cocoa beans, below the XAF 825 stipulated by the CCC.  Also, some farmers report selling robusta coffee for XAF 680 a kilogram, down from the XAF 700 price set at the start of the season by the CCC.

Feb 08  - Gabon's Processed Rubber Fell 43% on Year in January-Sep 2021 - DJ

-   Gabon's rubber output for export fell 43% on year in the first three quarters of 2021, government data showed Tuesday.   The country processed 3,483 metric tons of rubber for export between January and September last year, compared with 6,103 tons for the same period of 2020, the figures showed.

- Rubber produced in the country is mainly destined for sale to overseas markets, although export figures are yet to be released by the Gabonese government.   The government said on Monday that rubber production between January and September of 2021 fell to 11,036 tons, down 30.4% from 15,859 tons for the same period of 2020.

- The government attributed the decline in the rubber harvest to Covid-19 restrictions.

Feb 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- While NY reached a new 18-week high of $2737 / May 22, good hedging pressure from the origin kept the London market in particular in check. All in all, it was a quiet start to the week until about 20 minutes before the close. In the late afternoon, the markets corrected and London lost GBP -21 at the close, ending the day at GBP 1795.

- Côte d'Ivoire arrivals as of 06.02.22 stand at 1.408 mt vs. 1.371 mt from last year (+2.7%), continuing to catch up steadily.

- GEPEX milling figures in January were 3.6% below the previous year, but still represent a solid tonnage.

Feb 08  - Sugar market heading to 2nd year of supply surplus - analyst
The global sugar market is expected to have a second year of small supply surplus in 2022/23 (October-September) as high benchmark prices and good weather boost crop prospects in the main producing countries, CovrigAnalytics said in a report on Monday. The report said that production will outpace demand by 0.9 million tonnes in the new season that starts in October, after a surplus of 0.6 million tonnes in 2021/22.

Feb 08  - Ivory Coast cocoa bean quality hit by dry weather, farmers say
Dry weather for three straight weeks in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa regions has damaged the quality of beans and threatens to reduce the size of the April-to-September mid-crop, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is in its dry season from mid-November to March. Rain is normally scarce in these months but has been well below average recently.

Feb 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Further buying appetite from specs / funds helped May 22 break through GBP 1800 and GBP 1817 resistance right at the start. Hedging pressure from the origin certainly absorbed a good part of the upside and the May 22 ended the day GBP +19 at GBP 1816 (3 ½ month high). For the week, LDN gained 4.8%, NY much firmer with a 7% gain. This caused the arbitrage to widen to a discount of GBP -196. The March / May 22 achieved a further low of GBP -49. The remaining structure continues to be flat / inverse.

- Commitment of Traders as of 01.02.22 show an unsurprising, albeit relatively small, reduction of the position by 6,509 lots to now 89,384 lots net long.

Feb 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Isolated hedge pressure from the origin towards GBP 1800 / May 22 kept the market in check yesterday. The May 22 made highs of GBP 1798 and ended the day, just below, at GBP 1797 / GBP +8, setting sail for further consolidation. New York, on the other hand, broke out and made new highs of $ 2701 in what was ultimately seen as a firm upward move.

- The BoE's announcement to raise interest rates by 0.25% seems to have been priced in. The ECB kept a low profile and at least did not completely rule out a hike this time. Major European banks expressed ad hoc buy recommendations for the EUR, the EUR strengthened overnight from 0.829 (yesterday's low) to now around 0.8430!

Feb 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The enthusiasm of a rediscovered "bullish fundamental attitude" lasted only briefly yesterday. After the previous day's significant firming, yesterday ended just below GBP 1800 / May 22. The market recovered slightly and ended the day almost unchanged at GBP +2 at GBP 1789. The structure hardly reflects the final movement. The March / May 22 continued to trade near the lows yesterday around GBP -40. The May / July 22 spread makes a new low at a discount of GBP 17.

Feb 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Almost from a standing start, the market gained GBP 49 at the peak yesterday and traded up to 7 day highs of GBP 1792 / May 22. More buyers than sellers would certainly be the simplest explanation here, at least fundamentally nothing has changed. Was it industry making a next covering move after days / weeks or did specs continue to focus on their longs (we'll see in the next COT report)? The May 22 ended the day firm with a gain of GBP 44 to GBP 1787. Volume at just over 42k lots only looks good at a glance, if we subtract spreads and AA's we are left with less than half here. The origin showed up sporadically in the market and continues to wait for levels above GBP 1800 / March 22 basis

Feb 01 - ICE sugar hedging down as mills watch oil prices surge

Sugar producers' hedging operations at the New York ICE exchange are down sharply from a year ago, as oil's recent surge has spurred mills that also produce ethanol to delay hedging as they weigh boosting their fuel production. According to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data, the volume of commercial players' short positions - option contracts to sell sugar at a set price - is down 35% from last year, at around 420,000 contracts.

Feb 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Apart from a small "push" in the morning to highs of GBP 1749 / May 22, it was a quiet start to the week. Slight hedging pressure from the origin, as well as a further firm British pound, provided slight resistance. The May 22 ended the day at GBP +11 at GBP 1743.

- The Bank of England is likely to raise its interest rates next Thursday, for the second time in a row. This is not necessarily likely to result in a weaker pound.

- Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire have recovered significantly in recent weeks and stand at 1.34 mt vs. 1.32 mt (+1.5%) as of 30 Jan. Exports of cocoa beans Oct - Dec 21 are at 382,664 mt / -15%, while exports of produce are up slightly at 121,530 mt / +3.1%.

Jan 31 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Just like the previous day, GBP 1714 / May 22 was the first to close on Friday. In a quiet last session before the weekend, May 22 ended the day at GPB +16 at GBP 1732. Over the week, London lost 2.3% and New York 3.2%.

- The ICCO raised its estimate of End of Season Stock for the 20/21 crop significantly to now 1.92m mt, an increase of around 400,000mt. These figures, due to not 100% clear numbers from some origins, should always be viewed with caution and therefore remain only "estimates". However, the surplus was left at 212,000mt for the time being.

- Commitment of Traders as of 25.01 show an expansion of the net long position by 5,728 lots to 95,893 lots. In New York, within Managed Money, the disagreement was reflected more drastically than in LDN. In New York, positions were increased on both sides (long & short). While London almost exclusively built up fresh longs.

Jan 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

While the GBP 1724 / 1720 level still provided slight support, the May 22 lost further ground yesterday. At GBP 1714 / May 22, new lows of the current movement were reached. Only the losses of the British pound vs. the US$ then provided further support. The May 22 ended the day at GBP -23 at GBP 1716 and continues to search for the now next support at GBP 1700 / 1680. New York fell more clearly, where the May 22 broke through the psychological support at $2500, ending the day slightly above at $2506 / $ -54.

Jan 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After a correction of a good GBP 80, within a few days, yesterday was the end. Good sales figures from a major chocolate manufacturer (even compared to the 19/20 financial year), continued to show moderate growth and provided support towards the lows finally seen. The May 22 traded in a GBP 1727 / 1748 range, ending the day GBP +12 at GBP 1739. The Fed will continue to leave its interest rates at the same level since March 21, but an imminent "adjustment" was announced, albeit cryptically.

Jan 26  - Logistical issues underpin Nigerian dried ginger prices (IHSmarkit)

- Getting goods out of the port is a ‘logistical nightmare’
- Demand is picking up in line with the seasonal trend
- Chinese ginger remains much higher priced than that of Nigeria

- Nigerian dried ginger prices showed some declines in recent weeks but are now expected to hold a stable to firm pattern. The main reason for the earlier price falls was the anticipation of new crop supply and the view that the latest crop would be of a reasonable size. However, demand is now strong and there are a host of logistical issues so the potential for prices to increase is stronger than any downside possibility.

- Blair Coutts of UK trader Blair Impex said he had heard that the latest Nigerian crop was of a reasonable size. As usual, the main harvesting period was in November and December.
- Albert Berisa of Rotterdam trader Catz International was slightly more reserved on the crop view, stating that he had heard it was an average sized crop and not much bigger than that of 2021.
- Coutts recalled that Nigerian split dried ginger prices closed 2021 at around $3,000/tonne c&f EMP for European quality material, having previously fallen to about $2,450/tonne c&f before rising to $3,400/tonne c&f. He put current prices around $2,300/tonne c&f.
“The farmers, suppliers and merchants were playing the system,” he added.

- Berisa said Nigerian old crop material had been quoted between $2,700-$3,000/tonne cif EMP. “Then the new crop prices dropped to around $2,400-2,500 but that was more in anticipation of the new crop which was also expected to be quite reasonable or possibly quite good. Now it appears that the crop is average, so not much bigger than last year.
“Since the middle of December we have seen a stabilisation of prices and there are even some exporters that have increased their pricing, as they are unable to collect enough ginger locally. Besides that, the stocks in the various countries were at a minimal level so the demand has picked up quite a bit at the start of the new crop, which also does not give much space for the price to decrease. So at the moment we see a stabilisation to a slightly firmer market, on account of this scenario,” he explained.

No benchmark on pricing
- Berisa put Nigerian split dried ginger with EU guarantees at $2,500/tonne cif EMP, down from $2,700/tonne cif EMP earlier. Material of non-EU guaranteed ranged from $2,300-$2,500/tonne cif, he explained. He emphasised that it has to be borne in mind that there is a wide variance on prices due to the various quality grades and guarantees in circulation. One of the most stringent is that which is EU guaranteed not just at the point of export but also on arrival in the bloc.

- One Nigerian shipper told Coutts he would not be able to ship new crop material until April or May.
“Getting goods out of the port is a logistical nightmare. Even getting goods cleared to be imported is difficult. Lagos is a logistical mess. In a sense it always has been and if you know the right people you can get things through faster. It has always been a nightmare and it has got worse since Covid,” Coutts observed.

- Coutts summed up current demand as steady. “It is a good ginger. The quality has improved dramatically over the years and there is no reason to see why the demand won’t continue,” he remarked.

- Berisa viewed demand as slightly stronger than normal due to low stocks.

Major congestion at ports
- He noted there are now only two months left in which the new crop Nigerian material can be offered and supplied. “Although now if you are looking for something for February shipment, you are lucky if it will be shipped in May or June, because of the port congestion problem, which has been there for a couple of years. So it is a very difficult task to ship the material out of Lagos or the other ports, so that also creates a lot of problems. There are supply disruptions locally and also problems logistically on account of port congestion as well as availability of vessels. Also, those factors contribute to a stable to firm market,” he added.
- China has been purchasing Nigerian dried ginger to help top up its own supplies but also due to the price difference, with Chinese dried ginger flakes ranging from $4,400-4,800/tonne cif EMP.
- Berisa observed that this high pricing is due to the lofty freight rates from China to European main ports with a 40 ft. container commanding levels of around $15,000. This means that $600-$700 per tonne has to be added to the costs for a container of dried ginger versus an average of about $100/tonne in the days before Covid.
- China’s 2021-22 crop is also slightly better than that of the previous season. Harvesting was in November and December and runs to March/April.

Jan 26 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

As previously announced, the May 22 found good support yesterday at GBP 1724, which also marked yesterday's low. With much less activity / volatility, the London futures market ended GBP -6 at GBP 1727. Almost no buying interest from the industry, as well as the origin continuing to be conspicuous by its absence, contributed to a day of recovery. A look at the long-term weekly chart shows that we have actually been in a sideways movement since August 2020 (with admittedly great volatility and short-term swings). Levels around GBP 1700 - 1750 seem to be the "golden middle" here.

Jan 25  - China’s zero Covid policy disrupts fruit imports ( IHSmarkit )

- Delays in shipments have caused uncertainty for the fruit industry
- Cherry prices are expected to go down after Chinese New Year
- Hong Kong SAR’s quarantine measures will contribute to consumer price hikes

- China’s zero Covid policy and stringent testing and quarantine measures have contributed to logistics costs hikes, big price fluctuations in origin countries and uncertainty for importers.
- The Chilean cherry season is under way in China and stakeholders in the supply chain are facing huge logistics challenges. Wholesale prices are expected to go down after the Chinese New Year, which falls on 1 February.
- Chinese New Year for this year is a bit earlier than usual years. Now is the peak period for imported fruit sales, especially those from the southern hemisphere. The delay in shipment arrivals has negatively affected the supply.
- China and Hong Kong SAR continue to adopt the zero Covid policy and enforce very stringent testing and disinfectant measures for customs clearance. The process is long and slow and the requirements are high and complex.

- Jack Liu, a local importer based in Shanghai told IHS Markit: “Over 10,000 containers carrying cherries are waiting for customs clearance at Hong Kong SAR. Every day only 180-500 containers can complete the process and be cleared. The delay to the end consumers is about 10 days.
“This year air freight rates are rising to CNY7-8/kg ($1.11-1.26/kg) from CNY5-6/kg of last year. We have to multiply the costs to each 5kg box and pass the costs on.” Additionally, logistics companies have to pay extra port charges when the goods are stuck at the port.

- The current reduced cherry supplies meant spot prices are firm, about CNY400 per box (5kg) for size J, JJ CNY480/box. After Chinese New Year, consumer demand will slow down. However, there will be more cherries arrived by then. The ample supplies and slower demand may push the prices down, meaning a huge margin shrinkage for importers. The prices are expected to drop to CNY100-150/box for J, JJ CNY200-250/box after the festive season.
- China’s Yantai greenhouse grown cherries has started this year’s campaign from 20 January, sold for CNY600/kg for wholesale. Local sources said that domestic production has limited varieties, small volume and the prices remain high compared with imports. For cherries, China’s research and development and cultivation are still far lagging behind Chile’s.

Hong Kong SAR consumers feeling the impact
- IHS Markit spoke to an importer based in Hong Kong SAR, who said that: “The cargo flight restrictions and Covid examinations have slowed down the customs clearance. Freight costs by sea and air are high and we expect less imports availability for the city’s consumer market. Consumers prices will be pushed up.” Consumers have already felt the rising prices for utility and food.
- Hong Kong SAR handles a large quantity of imports and re-exports to mainland China. Close trade links between the two sides mean any measures in Hong Kong SAR will impact on goods to the mainland.
- The USDA reports that in response to Hong Kong SAR’s new quarantine requirements on locally based cargo crew, on 30 December, 2021, Cathay Pacific airlines announced the suspension of all long-haul cargo and cargo-only passenger flights until 6 January, 2022. The USDA estimates the impact of the seven-day flight suspension on US agricultural and food exports at $2.6 million.

- In 2020, Hong Kong SAR handled 4.4 million tonnes of air cargo, which accounted for about 43% of the total value of Hong Kong’s external trade. Given the global sea supply chain disruptions in 2021, many local importers switched to shipping premium foods via air. As a result, Hong Kong’s air cargo throughput and discharge for the first three quarters of 2021 increased 13% compared with the same period in 2020.

Land ports disruption
- On land ports for fruits from ASEAN, China has beefed up its Covid-19 testing on fruits and all the customs are subject to immediate suspension or closure once a case is found.
- Vietnamese media reports that thousands of container trucks carrying fruit have been stuck at the northern border gates from the beginning of December 2021 to now.
- According to Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), by the 2022 Lunar New Year, nearly 1.0 million tonnes of agricultural products, such as jackfruit, mango, pineapple, and dragon fruit, will be ready for harvest and need consuming. Most of these are originally destined for China.
- The Hekou–Lào Cai border crossing was reopened to fresh fruit from Vietnam to China on 12 January 2022. The crossing for fruits halted between 18 July and 17 August 2021 as China found Covid-19 virus from samples taken from the outer packaging of several shipments of dragon fruits. The one-month suspension caused dragon fruit prices in Vietnam to plummet.

The latest shutdown of the Hekou–Lào Cai border crossing occurred on 25 December 2021.

Jan 25  - Gradual rise in Indian coriander prices ( IHSmarkit )

- 12% increase in spot prices
- 3% growth in export revenues from January-November 2021

- The Indian coriander spot price averaged INR9,740 per quintal ($130.8/quintal) at Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 24 January, 12% more than on 27 December.
- The 2021-22 crop is expected to increase by 17% y/y to 822,210 tonnes on 628,600 hectares, 19% more, according to trading sources.
- Indian exports fell by 2% y/y in volume to 47,140 tonnes but increased by 3% in value to $58.4 million in January-November 2021, according to customs data.
- The main importers were Malaysia, Nepal and the US, which took 22%, 10% and 8%, respectively.

- The updated daily futures market price on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) was:

    Deliveries in January 2021 closed at INR9,494/quintal on 20 January 2022, 8% more than on 21 December
    INR10,124/quintal for deliveries in April 2022 on 21 January, 11% more than on 22 Dec
    INR10,150/quintal for deliveries in May 2022 on 21 January, 5% more
    INR10,176/quintal for deliveries in June 2022 on 21 January, 10% more than on 3 Jan

Jan 25 - Philippines and Indonesia to close 2021 with record desiccated coconut revenues ( IHSmarkit )

- 10% increase in Philippine shipments
- 11% growth in Indonesian exports

- Philippines desiccated coconut exports rose by 10.2% y/y to 149,410 tonnes, worth $358.9 million (+53% y/y), a record, in January-November 2021, thanks to high prices.
- The main importers were the US, the Netherlands and Canada, accounting for 30%, 16% and 6%, respectively.
- Indonesian desiccated coconut exports reached 128,810 tonnes, 11% more y/y, worth USD216.6 million, 35% more, another record, from January-November 2021.
- The main purchasers were Singapore, Germany and Russia, accounting for 21%, 10% and 8%, respectively, of the total volume.

Jan 25 - Vietnam cashew market hits a quiet period (IHSmarkit)

- Small packers make larger cuts to prices
- Vietnam’s raw cashew nut imports 81.4% up last year
- Massive upturn in purchases from Cambodia

- Last week was the last working week of most Vietnamese cashew factories before closing for the annual Tet holiday and they will reopen in the second week of February. Ho Chi Minh City-based Golden Bridge observed that in general the market was quiet with fewer transactions taking place. “Prices were nearly unchanged from big packers but reduced more from small ones. At present, WW320 prices dropped to the lowest level of 2020 around $2.75/lb fob,” the firm explained.

- Cambodia’s new crop has started picking up with small volumes while Vietnam’s new crop could only start from March and main harvesting will be in April and May.

- According to tabled data in Golden Bridge’s latest market report, Vietnam imported 141,926 raw cashew nuts (RCN) in December 2021, 25.5% down from the same month in 2020. Its January-December 2021 imports of RCN gained 81.4% y/y to 3,149,865 tonnes.

- December 2021 RCN imports from Ivory Coast dipped 7% to 80,367 tonnes but annual imports rose 30.2% to 852,209 tonnes.
- December 2021 RCN imports from Cambodia increased 142% to 5,157 tonnes pushing January-December 2021 volumes to 1,108,443 tonnes, a massive 441% boost from the previous 12 month period.
- December 2021 RCN imports from other markets declined 44.6% to 56,401 tonnes but seasonal imports from these increased 35.6% to 1,189,212 tonnes.

Jan 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The last few days were once again an almost perfect example of what the cocoa market is currently made of. Short-term speculative positions, quick and sometimes significant reversals in positions (whether "long" or "short") and the search for the perfect momentum again led to a volatile day in the markets yesterday. As described, due to the latest COT report (see report yesterday) and the generally "tense" macro environment, May 22 fell GBP 42 to lows of GBP 1731 and ended the day weak at GBP -40 to GBP 1733.

- For those looking for fundamental justification, arrivals in Ivory Coast have picked up significantly from week 16 to week 17, now at 1.259 mt. Vs. 1.270 mt (-0.9% / last week it was down 4%). We see next support at GBP 1724 (100-day moving average) and the famous GBP 1700 mark.

Jan 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Whether it was in reaction to the North American grinding numbers or in anticipation of the impending reversal in the speculative position, both markets saw a weak day. The May 22 in London traded to lows of GBP 1769 and ended the day GBP -26 at GBP 1773. As briefly mentioned, Commitment of Traders as at 18/01/22 show a combined increase in the net long position from 28,647 lots to now 90,165 lots long. Managed Money, in London alone, liquidated an impressive just over 17K lots of their speculative shorts and now holds a long position again. The near structure also came under slight pressure and the March / May 22 is now GBP -35, still a discount, while the wider structure is flattening.

Jan 21 - Positive outlook for Australia’s dried fruit crops (IHSmarkit)

- Good amount of winter rains followed by sunny periods
- Sunmuscat sultanas are becoming increasingly popular
- Carina currants have almost reached their full berry size

Australian dried vine fruit growers have reported good prospects for the forthcoming 2022 crops of raisins, sultanas and currants.

In a crop report posted on You Tube, Zak Arapovic, head of sales at Australian Premium Dried Fruits (APDF) explained: “During winter we had some very good rains that gave the vines a nice soaking. Everything in terms of on the vineyards is looking very healthy at the moment. We’ve got some very vigorous cane growth, some good fruit bunches as well, so our expectation is that we will probably have a little but better than average crop in the 2022 season.” Arapoviv added that following the acquisitions made over the last few years the company’s “growth expectations are looking on track” and it hopes to double its intakes in the coming years.

Larry Dichiera, grower liaison for APDF noted: “The vines had a great start to the season with some good rains in winter and even more importantly in spring. We’ve had some good mild conditions with some really hot spells during the Christmas break.”

Dichiera showed that the Carina currants are changing colour and have almost reached their full berry size. These are probably now at about 15 brix. “Ideally, we’d like to start cutting them, which will be in about four or five weeks time when they reach about 24 brix, just to get the maximum weight out of the product,” Dichiera said.

Sunmuscat sultanas are becoming increasingly popular as an alternative to the Thompson sultana. The Sunmuscat sultana is renowned for its consistent heavy yields, nice loose bunches which makes it easy to apply sprays and wetting emulsion, and facilitates the drying process, Dichiera explained. The Sunmuscat sultana also seems to more tolerant of wet weather than some other varieties.

Dichiera demonstrated that the Thompson sultana has a tighter bunching but remarked that the yields on this type have been very good this year. He estimated that these are now likely to be at around 16-18 brix, whereas the company likes to harvest when the brix has reached 23-24 to optimise the yield and weight of the dried fruit.

Summing up, Arapovic observed: “The 2022 crop is off to a great start. We’ve had some favourable growing conditions. The bunch counts are looking good so we’re in for a promising season. All things being equal, provided we have some favourable drying conditions, we hope to have some very good quality fruit to supply our customers. In terns of the trajectory for APDF, as I stated previously, we will have larger tonnages hopefully this year and within the next two to three years we hope to double our current total intake.”

Jan 21  - India to close 2021 with a sharp growth in cashew exports (IHSmarkit)

- 39% increase in exports
- Vietnam has emerged as the main importer

Indian cashew exports rose by 39% y/y in volume to 75,870 tonnes and by 15% to $427.1 million in January-November 2021.

The main importers were Vietnam and the UAE, taking 35% and 19%, respectively, of the total exported volume. Vietnam emerged as a key importer thanks to its massive imports of cheap raw cashew nuts (RCN) at low prices just when India’s processors closed factories due to lockdown in March 2021.

Meanwhile, Indian imports of RCN fell by 1% y/y to 815,150 tonnes in January-November 2021.

Benin, Ghana and Ivory Coast (West Africa) were the main suppliers, accounting for 24%, 17% and 11%, respectively.

Ghana has strengthened its role as a West African hub and many Ivorian exporters are shipping through the ports of Tema. The port of Cotonou (Benin) has become a hinterland for other origins such as Nigeria, Togo or Burkina Faso.

Jan 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Hedging pressure against origin cover put pressure on the market, at least temporarily, in the morning. The May 22 traded to lows of GBP 1792, consolidating the rest of the day to close GBP -6 at GBP 1799. North American grind numbers ended the "round" last night. In Q4 2021, these were 1.21% below the comparable quarter from 2020 and slightly below expectations. Total (excl. Brazil) we are at +4.78%.

- Should this develop similarly over the next few quarters, and the figures from Ghana continue to be so far below the previous year, we can expect an adjustment of the deficit expectations soon.

Jan 20 - Global sugar supply deficit seen rising as China production falls

The world's sugar supply balance is expected to deteriorate in the 2021/22 season that started in October due to lower output in China, one of the world's largest importers, broker StoneX said on Wednesday. The season will see demand exceeding production for the third consecutive year, StoneX said, projecting a supply deficit of 1.9 million tonnes - larger than the 1.8 million tonnes deficit it projected in November.

Jan 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday's focus was the Mar22/May22 front spread, which alone attracted a third of the good volume of 30k lots and quoted a new low of -42 GBP discount. The CCC in Côte d'Ivoire showed up in the market once again yesterday, resulting in hedging pressure and keeping the test of new highs at bay. After highs GBP 1817 for the second month, the end was zero, so the May 22 closed unchanged at GBP 1810.

- It now remains questionable whether we will see consolidation here, given the ECA European grinding figures released today: German grinding follows the lead of other markets, showing a gain of 8.8% vs last year in Q4/21 at around 100k mt, while overall Europe is up 6.30% year-on-year at 365k mt in Q4/21.

Jan 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With much less steam but surprisingly solid volume for a solo session, the second month set new 12-week highs at GBP 1815. A look back shows a similar picture to mid-October, and almost on the same day with another round of grinding figures, ECA and NCA following this week. The last grinding figures (Q3 21) caused a corresponding hangover in the markets and a correction of a good GBP 150 within 2 weeks. A possible scenario...if it weren't for the specs, in mid-October the speculative long position was more than double its current size and gave more "air" to liquidate it. May 22 ended the day up GBP 11 at GBP 1810.

- Ivory Coast arrivals as of 16.01 are at 1.178 mt vs. 1.227 mt from last year (-4%).

Jan 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The market is soaking up every piece of bullish news like a sponge. The Asian grinding figures did the rest on Friday to contribute to this. These achieved a plus of 6.33% for Q4 vs. Q4 2020, on paper now standing at 877,002mt, a record for the region. Brief review: Pre-Covid in 2019 the volume was 876,331mt! The May 22 broke through the next technical resistance at GBP 1800 with a high of GBP 1803, albeit short term. Closing price on the firm side with GBP +39 at GBP 1799. Committment of Traders as of 11 Jan show an increase in the net long position by 12,388 lots to 61,518 lots.

- The decisive factor here was a reduction of the managed money shorts by a good 9,000 lots. New York remains closed today (Martin Luther King Holiday). After the firm close (NY on Friday), we are facing a theoretically firm opening of GBP +15.

Jan 17 - Speculators trim bullish bet in raw sugar by 50,000 contracts

Speculators reduced their bullish bets in raw sugar futures on ICE U.S. by more than 50,000 contracts in the week to Jan. 11, while increasing their long position in arabica coffee, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday. Money managers and hedge funds cut their net long position in raw sugar futures to only 38,068, the smallest since August 2020.

Jan 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The successive strengthening since the beginning of the week picked up speed yesterday, and it seems that the long sideways phase is now over. After a hesitant opening, NY again set the pace, and London pulled along to 2.5-month highs (GBP 1770 May 22). Here, selling pressure from price hedges slowed the move; close GBP 1760 (+20) basis May 22. The structure ran together again slightly.

- From a fundamental point of view, some may look for the explanation of the fastening in the news of the Ghanaian podcounters, which revised the crop outlook downwards by 25% from 900k to a maximum of 700k mt.

- In addition, there is the grinding figures from Malaysia, which are up 16.5% (102k mt) year-on-year in Q4/2021.

Jan 14  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- Vietnam set for decline in pepper production
- Indian sesame seed exports fall 9% in January-October 2021
- Indonesian farmers delay shipments of cassia

Production
- Indian turmeric harvesting has started and trading sources estimate that the yield has plummeted by 30% y/y as heavy rains have hit plantations in some regions.
- The pepper harvest in Vietnam will start a few weeks later than usual with large differences in yield due to irregular weather across the country, according to trading sources. The 2022 crop is estimated to fall by 10% to 180,000-188,000 tonnes due to bad weather and lack of care for plantations over the years.
- Indonesia and Vietnam are harvesting their cassia plantations and Vietnam is close to finishing its harvest. Indonesian farmers have delayed shipments due to heavy rains in December.
- Indian coriander seed sowing is reported to be lower for its new crop.
- Nigeria is expected to have a good crop of dried ginger as the weather conditions have been favourable.

Demand
- Global demand for Indian turmeric is strong (as confirmed by export figures for the first 10 months of last year, see Trade below). Exporters are selling carry-over stocks at high price.
- Export demand for Indian sesame seed tailed off in the first 10 months of 2021 (see Trade below). India’s own imports of the seed also reduced, signalling a decline in domestic demand.
- Vietnam’s cassia production is expected to exceed the global demand, especially in India, where sales are slowed.
- Indian demand for cloves is said to be limited but should pick up soon as new crop Madagascar consignments reach the Indian shores this month.

Trade
- Indian turmeric exports reached 126,980 tonnes, worth $183.8 million, in January-October 2021, 6% more y/y in volume and 2% less in value. The main importers were Bangladesh, the UAE and the US, taking 20%, 13% and 6%, respectively.
- Indian sesame seed exports were 216,530 tonnes, worth $339.3 million, in January-October 2021, 9% less y/y in volume and 13% less in value. The main importers were South Korea, the US, Russia and Vietnam, which took 20%, 9%, 6% and 5%, respectively.
- India’s imports of sesame seed reached 22,330 tonnes in January-October 2021, six times less y/y. The main suppliers were Brazil, Sudan and Somalia, which accounted for 46%, 16% and 9%, respectively.
- Vietnam’s pepper exports in January-November 2021 fell by 5% y/y to 250,000 tonnes due to lower Chinese demand. However, Vietnamese sold volume exceeded the 2020-21 crop (210,000 tonnes), starting to cut carry-over stocks.

Price
- The Indian spot fob polished turmeric price averaged INR9,322.80 per quintal ($125.4/quintal) at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, south central) on 7 January, 14% more than on 8 December.
- India’s new sesame seed (whitish) spot price averaged INR11,500 per quintal ($140.3/quintal) at Unjha wholesale market (Gujarat, North East) on 11 January 2022, 4% less than on 14 December.
- Vietnamese pepper prices are expected to rise after the New Year festival (February), fuelled by the Chinese demand and encouraging Vietnamese exporters to sell their stocks from previous seasons again between Q1 and Q2.
- Indonesian cassia prices closed at $5,600/tonne fob for KA quality in December, 9% more y/y; and at $4,900/tonne for KB quality, 43% more y/y. Vietnamese prices closed at $2,900/tonne fob for cassia 3.5% oil in December, 3% more y/y.

Jan 14  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- 7% fall in Argentina’s peanut production
- 24% fall in Californian walnut sales
- Turkish dried apricot and fig prices stabilised at high levels

Production
- Argentina’s 2021-22 peanut crop is expected to reach 1.3 million tonnes on 380,000 hectares, 7% less y/y in volume and 5% less in acreage. Farmers are switching to more profitable crops such as corn and soybeans which enjoy two crops annually.
- Snowpack was at 160% of average in the Sierra Nevada mountains in December, lifting potential water reserves and tempering the consequences of severe drought suffered by the almond, walnut and pistachio farmers in California.
- Italy’s 2021-22 chestnut output is expected to rise by 10% y/y to 38,000 tonnes. The ‘Asian hornet’ plague is under control after developing a long-term plan using the insect ‘Torymus sinensis’, a natural antagonist of the former.

Demand
- An Almond Board of California (ABC) survey finds that only 27% of Millennial households buy almonds for snacking (10% less than the average US household). In addition, Millennials who buy almonds for snacking spend 25% less than the average US household.

Trade
- California’s walnut shipments fell by 24% y/y to 64.8 million in-shell basis pounds this December, bringing seasonal sales (September-December) to 257.5 million lbs, 22% less y/y.
- California’s raisin shipments were 16,870 (short) tons this December, -21% y/y, bringing seasonal (August-December) sales to 94,830 tons, -16% y/y.
- Turkey’s dried apricot exports reached 1,244 tonnes in the week ending on 8 January 2022, 14% less y/y, bringing seasonal sales (1 August 2021-8 January 2022) to 47,610 tonnes valued at $202.5 million, 7% more y/y in volume and 39% more in value.
- Turkey’s dried fig exports reached 1,200 tonnes in the week ending on 1 January, 30% less m/m and 32% more y/y, bringing seasonal sales (6 October-1 January 2021) to 30,980 tonnes valued at $123.8 million, 1% less y/y in volume and 5% more in value.

Price
- Weekly fob prices for Turkish dried apricots and dried figs in the week ending on 8 January were:

    Whole dried apricots, $5,007/tonne, 51% more y/y
    Cut dried apricots, $3,536/tonne, 24% more y/y
    Whole dried figs, $4,706/tonne, 10% more y/y
    Cut dried figs, $2,740/tonne, 22% more y/y

Jan 14 - Market Briefing: Fresh Fruit and Vegetables (IHSmarkit)

- EU 2021/22 orange production expected to be 6% lower than the previous season
- Global fresh durian imports recovered in 2021, up 22% y/y
- Indian grape growers fixed the selling prices to avoid further financial losses

Production
- Mexican growers produced around 940,000 tonnes of berries for export in 2021, flat on 2020. Around half of berries exported in 2021 originated from Jalisco state. The country has more than 52,000 hectares of land dedicated to berry production.
- EU orange production is forecast at 6.1 million tonnes for the marketing year 2021/22 (MY), 6% lower than the previous season and 3.3% lower than the EU’s ten-year average.

Demand
- UK Christmas supermarket sales beat analysts’ expectations with a total of £7.1 billion ($9.6 billion) in the two weeks to 25 December 2021, up from £6.7 billion in 2020; the initial forecast was £6.8 billion.
- US fresh strawberry sales rose by 1.2% y/y in volume to 1.17 billion lbs in the 52 weeks ending 26 December 2021, with the fruit accounting for almost 60% of the total berries sales; in value, the fruit sales grew 13% y/y to $3.6 billion.

Trade
- Preliminary customs data shows that global 2021 fresh durian imports rebounded by 22% y/y to 1.1 million tonnes, following a dip of 5% y/y in 2020. Mainland China accounted for 74% of global exports, growing its imports by 38% y/y. Additionally, Hong Kong SAR accounted for 20% of global volume to 221,000 tonnes, with much of these being re-routed to the mainland. While Thailand dominates export markets, Malaysia is determined to expand production and increase exports under the new trade agreement (RCEP).

Prices
- In the first week of 2022 ending 7 January, some UK fruit and vegetables prices were significantly higherthan a year ago in the UK. Bramley’s Seedling apples’ average wholesale prices climbed 65% y/y and 12% w/w to £1.90 per kilo ($2.58/kg); the 2021 highest price point was £1.69 in week 50. Conference pears prices rose 30% y/y and 69% w/w to £1.30/kg; in 2021, the highest point was £1.17/kg in week 14.
- Given the rising production costs, Indian grape growers have decided to fix their selling prices as they suffered financial losses in the past two seasons. In January-October 2021, India’s fresh grape average export price was $1,200 per tonne, 25% down y/y. The average export price to the Netherlands was $1,600/tonne, 20% down y/y, to the UK was $1,740/tonne, 11% down y/y; to Bangladesh and Nepal were $590/tonne (1% up y/y) and $330/tonne (11% down y/y), respectively.

Jan 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With moderate volume, the market oscillated sideways yesterday. The May22 tested resistance at the 100-day average at GBP 1754, but technical selling kept the market sufficiently under pressure. Arbitrage was also under pressure yesterday, due to a further strengthening of the British pound against the US$. Against the Euro, the pound also remains stable and thus contributes its part to keep the prices in London in check. On balance, yesterday saw a range of GBP 17 and a close of GBP 1740 (-6) basis May22.

- Even the bullish news from Ghana, where purchases of 263k mt are almost 54% below the previous year, had no effect on the futures market yesterday.  

Jan 12 - Indian sugar exports slow as global prices correct, rupee firms

Indian mills are holding off on signing new sugar export contracts as falling global prices and a strengthening rupee have widened the gap between local and global rates, industry officials told Reuters. Lower shipments from the world's No. 2 sugar producer could support global prices, that fell to their lowest in 5-1/2 months on Monday but could also prompt Indian mills to divert more sugar for ethanol production.

Jan 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

While most of the day was uneventful, the markets came to life in the afternoon. NY gained $70, London ignored the Sterling trading at a 23-month high against the Euro and at least made an attempt to follow the Americans and got good support from speculative buying. Resistance was only found around 30 points up on the 100-day average (GBP 1755 2nd month); the May 22 closed just below at GBP 1748 (+25). This puts us at the upper end of a recent 1650/1750 range, technically in neutral territory, meaning neither overbought nor oversold. If the structure turns over, there would initially be room to move up to 1770 after the 100-day average.

Jan 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After a lively end to the week, everyone seemed to be leaning back again. In a bandwidth of GBP 15, 15k contracts changed hands. The market was under pressure right from the start, triggered by price hedging, and certainly in part due to a further firm British pound. Technical support was found at the level of the 200-day average through speculative covering against shorts. May 22 closed 8 points down at GBP 1721, so there is still no clear direction of action.

- Meanwhile, Côte d'Ivoire is presenting first grinding figures. December 21 shows 52k mt, rounding off Q4/21 at 159k mt, which corresponds to a year-on-year growth of 5.3%.

Jan 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The first week of trading in the New Year ended with a tightening of positions in London of just under GBP 50 basis May 22. The second month marked its lows directly at the opening and knew only one direction thereafter - upwards, then easily passed GBP 1700 and a little later the 200 days moving average at GBP 1719. Despite low volume of ultimately 22k lots, the quotations continued their rise unperturbed until the end. The May 22 closed at GBP 1729 (+49).

- Committment of Traders, also reflecting year-end 2021, show a net long position of 49k lots (+742) including a slight reduction in the speculative short position by 3k lots to a total of -19k lots net short.

Jan 07  - Market Briefing: Cocoa (IHSmarkit)

- Ivory Coast’s cocoa port arrivals 4% below down y/y
- Ghanaian cocoa exports on hold over unrest at major depots
- Futures slip on optimal weather in Ivory Coast

Production
- Ivory Coast’s cocoa port arrivals are now around 4% below year-ago comparisons, exporters estimated. Percentage decreases had hovered around 10% for the past few months. The world’s top grower saw arrivals reach 1.08 million tonnes by January 2, down from 1,125,000 tonnes over the same period last season; 4% lower y/y. This was also slightly below the five-year average of 1,087,000 tonnes, according to IHS Markit. Meanwhile in weekly volumes, about 31,000 tonnes of beans were delivered to Abidjan port and 49,000 tonnes to San Pedro between December 27- January 2, for a total of 80,000 tonnes. This is higher than this time last year’s 62,000 tonnes, as well as the five-year average of around 53,000 tonnes.

Demand
- Swiss chocolatier Barry Callebaut has been recognized by non-profit environmental organization CDP, for its sustained progress against tackling deforestation in its cocoa supply chain. CDP has rated the company among the top performing global climate leaders. The cocoa and chocolate firm gained an A- rating, making it one of the top 24 highest achievers in terms of corporate action and transparency, with its Forever Chocolate Commitments and further commitments to schemes including the CFI Forests initiative within West Africa.

Trade
- Ivory Coast exported 186,842 tonnes of raw cocoa beans from October to November of the 2021/22 season, up 5.4% y/y, provisional port data showed. In November alone, approximately 111,000 tonnes of beans were exported, down from around 139,000 in the same month last year, but above October 2021’s 75,000 tonnes.
- Meanwhile, operations have been suspended at Ghana’s Cocoa Marketing Company (CMC) depot of Kumasi in the Ashanti region, owed to worker strikes. Cocoa carriers of the depot are protesting against management of the company and its associates over failure on their part to address their wages among other concerns.

Price
- Cocoa futures were bearish this week as unseasonal rain in the Ivory Coast is boosting cocoa crop yields. By Thursday’s (January 6) close, March New York cocoa settled down $34 to $2,423 a tonne, having hit a near two-month low of $2,408 earlier in the session. March London cocoa fell £23 to £1,653 per tonne, after hitting a 2½-week low.

Jan 07 - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- 9% increase in global ginger crop thanks to expansion of the planted area
- Rising demand for confectionery sesame has encouraged Paraguayan farmers to plant around 100,000 hectares of sesame seeds
- New EU rules for imports of Brazilian black pepper

Production
- The 2021-22 global ginger crop is expected to grow by 9% y/y to 3.26 million tonnes thanks to the expansion of the planted area.
- Paraguay’s sesame crop fell by 19% y/y to 35,000 tonnes in 2021 due to severe drought. 
- Zanzibar State Trade Corporation (ZSTC) has announced a massive purchase of clove seeds to reach a record crop of 10,000 tonnes in 2025. Traditionally, the Zanzibar archipelago (Tanzania) was a key clove origin, reaching a crop of 8,000 tonnes in 2017. However, quality problems and outdated plantations made production plummet to 3,000 tonnes in 2021.
- Spain’s 2021 saffron production has fallen by 23% y/y to 347 kg although the area rose by 18% to 135 hectares due to severe drought. This means a 42% fall compared with the latest forecast.
- USDA has approved the New York state hemp production plan. New York state is the largest US hemp origin, with 800 registered industrial growers on 30,000 acres.

Demand
- The rising global demand for CBD has encouraged Canadian hemp grower and processor MPX International to build a factory in Thailand. MPX has invested THB600 million ($18 million) to develop a facility which will produce 50,000 litres of CBD oil and 90 tonnes of powder and water-soluble CBD from 200,000 tonnes of hemp annually.
- The 2022 Japanese and South Korean confectionery contracts have fuelled Paraguay’s crop. Paraguayan farmers have planted around 100,000 hectares of sesame seeds, up from 70,000 hectares in 2021. 

Trade
- India’s guar gum exports rose by 17% y/y in volume to 178,090 tonnes and value to $241.8 million in January-October 2021. The US, Russia and Germany accounted for 31%, 15% and 13%, respectively, of the volume.
- India’s coriander exports fell by 1% y/y to 43,050 tonnes but increased by 4% in value to $52.9 million in January-October 2021. The main importers were Malaysia, Nepal and the US, which took 21%, 11% and 9%, respectively, of the volume.
- Shipments of black pepper from Brazil to be delivered in the EU must now be accompanied by an official certificate and analysis results proving the absence of salmonella in the batches. Brazil was notified by the EU about the Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021-2246 (19320925), published in the Official Journal of the EU on 17 December 2021. 

Prices
- India’s guar gum spot price averaged INR11,017 per quintal ($148.1/quintal) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 4 January 2022, 10% more than on 6 December 2021.
- The Indian coriander spot price averaged INR9,070 per quintal ($121.5/quintal) at Jaipur wholesale market on 3 January, 6% more than on 6 December.

Jan 07  - Market Briefing: Sugar (IHSmarkit)

- India's sugar mills produced 3.7 million tonnes of sugar
- Brazil exported only 1,943,706 tonnes of sugar in December
- Raw sugar futures hit five-month lows

Production
- India's sugar mills produced 3.764 million tonnes of sugar, white value, in the second half of December, up from 3.070 million in the first half but hardly changed from 3.740 million in the same period last year, Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) data showed.
- Thailand's sugarcane crush entered the seasonal end-of-year lull with cane crushing volumes falling sharply towards New Year's Eve. Some 17.706 million tonnes of cane had been crushed as of 3 January, up sharply from 10.672 million by the same time last year.

Demand
- ndia’s Union government has extended the time period to sell the December sale quota by a month until January 31 2022. Mills/traders are currently facing logistics issues to lift the quota allocated for the month of December 2021. The Ministry had allocated 2.15 million tonnes for sale in December 2021 to 558 sugar mills. Welcoming the government’s decision, Prakash Naiknavare, managing director of the National Federation of Co-operative Sugar Factories Ltd, said the extension of sale period will ease the pressure on the mills to sell.

Trade
- Brazil exported only 1,943,706 tonnes of sugar in December 2021, down from 2,880,667 in the same month last year, government data showed. This was also significantly below November’s 2.674 million tonnes.
- The Indian government has filed an appeal in the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Appellate Body against a ruling on sugar export subsidies stating that New Delhi's domestic support measures for sugar and sugarcane are inconsistent with global trade norms. The appeal means that there will be no consequences for India’s sugar policy in the foreseeable futures as the WTO Appellate Body is not functional.

Prices
- Raw sugar futures in New York suffered significant losses on January 5 and hit a five-month low in the course of the session amid fears that the upcoming index fund rebalancing was bearish for sugar, while rains continue to improve prospects for the 2022/23 sugarcane crush in Brazil's Centre/South. That said, the benchmark raw sugar contract for March delivery ended down 41 points at 18.34 cents per pound, only fractionally above the intraday low of 18.32 cents. This was the lowest level for a most-active contract since early August.

Jan 07  - Market Briefing: Fresh Fruit and Vegetables (IHSmarkit)

- Egypt’s orange production, exports and domestic consumption will decrease in MY 2021/22
- US organic apple wholesale prices were 41% higher than conventional in late December 2021

Production
- Poland’s 2021 berry crop production is estimated at 565,000 tonnes, about 2% more than in 2020, Despite the larger volume, the fruit quality was worse compared with 2020 due to frequent and abundant rainfall during the ripening of the fruit. 
- Egypt’s orange production is expected to decrease 16% from last year to 3.0 million tonnes in the 2021/22 marketing year (MY).

Demand
- Indian per capita consumption of papayas is expected to reach 5.9 kg in 2030, up from 4.5 kg in 2021. Expansion in supplies and income growth are contributing factors.
- Fresh orange domestic consumption in Egypt will decrease by 19% from last year to reach 1.25 million tonnes in MY 2021/22. This potential fall is attributed to lower production; growers are directing their produce towards exports as worldwide orange demand is rising, so reducing supplies to the domestic market.

Trade
- China, the world’s largest fresh garlic exporter, shipped 165,000 tonnes in November, 11% down m/m and 27% down y/y. Rising shipping costs contributed to the fall. Lower exports have negatively affected de-stocking of coldstore garlic, suppressing domestic prices.
- In January-October 2021, Germany imported 1.2 million tonnes of fresh bananas, 5% up y/y. Ecuador (30%), Colombia (26%) and Costa Rica (24%) jointly accounted for 80% of the total volume.
- In MY 2021/22, Egypt’s orange exports are expected to decrease by13% to reach 1.45 million tonnes. The anticipated lower production will affect the export volume. However, Egypt should maintain its position as the biggest orange exporter in MY 2021/22.

Prices
- In September 2021, Mexico’s average export price for fresh papaya was $690 per tonne, 21% up y/y. But, the average export price ($590/tonne) in January-September 2021 showed no change from a year ago.
- Given a production decrease in overall apples, US organic apple supplies are tight, pushing up the wholesale prices amid continuous rising demand in the country. On 25 December 2021, average organic apples were sold for $56.26 per carton at US wholesale markets, 41% higher than conventional on the same day. This is a particularly high price premium for organic.
- In Germany, the wholesale prices of fresh bananas have hardly fluctuated for years. Organic bananas have been traded on the wholesale market at an average of €1.43 per kilo ($1.61/kg) since 2017, just €0.02/kg above the average price for conventional variant.

Jan 07 - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- Severe rains flood coffee fields in central eastern areas in Brazil
- Ethiopia exported $358.81 million worth of arabica coffee July-November
- ICO exported 9.2 million 60-kilo bags of coffee in November

Production
- Severe rains have flooded coffee fields in central eastern areas in Brazil, the latest in a climate roller-coaster for the nation's agricultural regions that has included devastating frosts and droughts. The rains are more than four times the norm for regions north of Minas Gerais, the main coffee-producing area of Brazil. Excess rain causes coffee berries, which are still green at this point, to fall, reducing production. Yields at farms could fall to around 40 60-kg bags per ha from earlier projections of 50 bags.

Demand
- Ethiopia exported $358.81 million worth of arabica coffee July-November, up from $240.81 million in the same period a year earlier. The estimate is that 1,800,600 60-kg bags of coffee have been sold abroad in this period, against 857,617 bags in the equivalent interval of 2020. Ethiopia plans to export 4.6 million bags of coffee this fiscal year and earn about $1 billion. The country has expanded its coffee destinations, which now include China.

Trade
- Brazil’s green coffee exports in December 2021 totaled 3.4 million 60-kg bags, down from 4.2 million bags in the same month last year. Yet, this was up from only 2.918 million bags shipped in November. This brought total green coffee exports in the first 9 months of the current 2021/22 season to 26.179 million bags, down 15.5% from the all-time high of 30.9 million reached last year and the lowest since 2018/19.
- Members of the ICO exported 9.2 million 60-kilo bags of coffee in November 2021, down 12.4% from 10.5 million in the same month last year. This brought total exports in the first two months of 2021/22 to 18.8 million bags, down 8.8% from 20.6 million in the corresponding period a year ago.

Prices
- Arabica coffee futures fell to a 1½-month low of 220.55 cents per pound in the first session of the new year as the market added to previous losses. There are concerns that the rapid spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant could lead to renewed lockdowns across the globe and thereby hurt the recovery of global coffee demand. The most-active arabica contract for March delivery ended down 2.80 cents at 223.30 cents per pound, in dealings between 220.55 and 226.95 cents. The intraday low marked the lowest level since 15 November.

Jan 07 - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- Iranian pistachio production plunges 44% year-on-year in 2021
- Wet weather prompts concerns for cashew crops in Vietnam
- African peanut exports severely hampered by shipping delays

Production
- Iran’s 2021 pistachio crop totalled 135,000 tonnes (-44% y/y) with carry-over stocks at a minimum level of 5,000 tonnes, bringing the total supply to 140,000 tonnes.
- Mexico’s 2021 peanut crop reached around 100,000 tonnes, unchanged from 2021, worth MX$1.26 billion ($61.4 million).
- Pecan harvesting has finished in most Mexican origins and farmers are starting to prune, confirming a disappointing supply due to drought.
- Vietnam’s 2022 cashew crops could be late as there are unseasonal heavy rains affecting cashew plantations. Cashew trees have still not bloomed so there is a strong possibility of the crop being late.

Demand
- Chinese demand for African peanuts is reported to be weak (see Price below).
- Turkish hazelnut buyers are not eager to make purchases, it was noted this week. Currency factors and pricing are blamed for the lack of activity (see Price below).
- Mexico’s 2021 peanut crop was able to match domestic demand during the Christmas campaign, when peanuts are at the core of the national confectionery industry. The country’s processors import from the US and Nicaragua to match demand during the rest of the year.
-bDesiccated coconut continues to generate strong demand as evidenced by the latest figures for Sri Lankan exports (see Trade below).

Trade
- Importers of peanuts from African origins this week highlighted shipping problems.
- International shipping lines are prioritising services between China-EU and the US. Service frequency in key African ports such as Port Sudan, Djibouti (both in the East) and Dakar (West) has been cut between 50-60%, fuelling stacked raw product in port warehouses.
- Some me vessels with Sudanese product are halted in Chinese ports, waiting to be unloaded.
- Iran exported 46,995 tonnes of pistachios in October-December 2021, 47% less y/y.
- Sri Lanka’s January-November 2021 desiccated coconut exports rose by 20% y/y in volume to 32,930 tonnes and by 51% in value to LKR19.6 billion ($95.6 million).

Price
- The average price of fresh Sri Lankan coconut was LKR59.5 ($0.29) per coconut in the Kuliyapiitya coconut auction on 23 December, 1% more m/m. Wholesale desiccated coconut prices ranged from LKR530-540 for fine, 2% less m/m, and from LKR550-560/kg (-2% m/m) for medium on 30 December.
- Sri Lankan international desiccated coconut prices have been stagnant at $2,735/tonne cfr nw Europe since August 2021, according to IHS Markit.
- Sudan and Senegal are starting to offer their 2021-22 peanut crops with strong discounts due to weak Chinese demand ahead of the imminent start of the New Year festival (February).
- Sudan’s peanut prices averaged $1,020/tonne fob in the second fortnight of December. Nigeria’s peanuts are being offered at $1,200/tonne cif in Middle East countries and at $1.5/kg in the domestic market. Senegalese prices averaged $1,050/tonne fob.
- The lack of activity in the Turkish hazelnut market is attributed to a “highly fluctuating” currency exchange, lower prices in the local market and higher prices for export (compared with previous weeks).
- Philippines’ banana chip prices are very volatile as they are substituting other processed fruits after typhoons hit many plantations in the country. In late December, Philippine banana chips whole, sweetened were reported to be at $1.07/lb fob Davao while broken, sweetened were said to be $0.85/lb fob Davao.

Jan 07  - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With half of Europe in holiday mode next, it was a subdued start to the day. By midday, just 700 lots were traded in London and GBP 1700 marked yesterday's high and provided good resistance. In the afternoon, the continued strength of the British pound put pressure on the market. The May 22 trades down to a low of GBP 1676, closing on the weak side at GBP -20 at GBP 1680. The entire board now sits, more or less comfortably, below GBP 1700. Especially for dates of the 22/23 campaign, slight support from the industry should be expected (at a leisurely pace).

Jan 07 - Heavy rains hurt some Brazil coffee fields - but that's better than ice

Severe rains have flooded coffee fields and other crops in central eastern areas in Brazil, the latest in a climate roller-coaster for the nation's agricultural regions that has included devastating frosts and droughts. The rains are more than four times the norm for regions north of Minas Gerais, the main coffee-producing area of Brazil.

Jan 06  - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Buying interest on the opening initially brought good support, but this did not hold for the rest of the day. Further speculative selling and hedge pressure from the industry against cover from origin brought pressure.

- The British pound, which is currently trading at a 2-year high against the Euro after the Bank of England's interest rate increase (albeit a small one of 0.15%), also provided assistance. May 22 closed at exactly GBP 1700 (+4)

- While in Côte d'Ivoire the dockworkers' strikes have ended for the time being and the union and the government are sitting together at the negotiating table, only weeks later their colleagues in Ghana are taking their neighbours as a example and are also stopping work. The result is apparently "hundreds" of trucks in the port waiting in vain to be unloaded. Here, too, the promise to enter into negotiations seems to have eased the situation.

Jan 05  - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After an unchanged opening into the new year, prices came under significant pressure in the afternoon. The London market fell simultaneously with the opening in New York, with the May 22 LDN breaking through GBP 1700 support (albeit only just with a low of GBP 1692) and the 200-day average sitting there. Closing May 22 GBP -30 at GBP 1696. Volume was not outstanding, but "pent up" light hedge pressure, as seen the day before yesterday in New York, and liquidations of the longs made for an interesting day. GBP 1700 has acted as a loose market floor since mid-December. The next few days will bring more insights, especially how the well pre-sold origin will behave and when the industry will come into the market with price hedges. Committment of Traders show a slight expansion of the long position by 3,075 lots (mainly due to a reduction in speculative shorts).

Jan 04  - Brazil biodiesel sales surge to 957 million liters for Jan-Feb under new model: ANP
Brazilian biodiesel producers signed sales and supply deals to deliver 957 million liters of the biofuel in January-February, an increase of about 36% above estimated demand for the period after the country's move to a new direct-sales model on Jan. 1, according to the National Petroleum Agency.

Jan 04  - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With London closed, the New York market made a volatile start to the new year. Almost without interruption, the May 22 corrected downwards by a good US$ 70 at times and wrote an impressive total range of US$ 74. Closing price then only US$ -16 at US$ 2537. The decrease in open interest, within the last few days, suggests further liquidation of speculative longs. We will see how the first "real" trading day, with both markets and at usual times, goes today.

Jan 03  - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The cocoa market lacked a bang at the end of the year. Slightly tormented, it limped into the year's finish on New Year's Eve, bringing only about 6,000 contracts across the finish line after deducting options trades and closing 8 points down at May 22 GBP 1726. As expected, there is otherwise little to say about the last trading day of the year. A quick review of the second year of the pandemic reveals a full year performance of +3% in 2021, extremes of +12% in October and -6% in May and July; spreads traded in a range of GBP 300. Today, London takes another break and gets into the action starting tomorrow. A good start to a healthy 2022 to you all, we look forward to working with you !

Jan 03  - Egypt’s orange production expected to decrease 16% from last year (IHSmarkit)

- An estimated 3.0 million tonnes are expected for 2021/22
- Domestic consumption is expected to decrease despite strong export demand

- Egypt’s orange production is expected to decrease 16% from last year to 3.0 million tonnes in the 2021/22 marketing year (MY), according to a recent USDA report. The decrease in production is attributed to severe weather conditions and fluctuating temperatures during flowering of  the trees which impacted fruit set. Orange production in the Nile Delta was also impacted by a 25-30% increase in fertilizer prices due to higher production costs and larger exports by the fertilizer industry to capture higher prices in the global market.

- The USDA revised the MY 2020/21 production estimate upwards by 170,000 tonnes to 3.57 million tonnes from the initial projection of 3.4 million tonnes. The increase in production was due to higher yields and favorable weather conditions last season during the flowering time that positively impacted fruit set and hence the production as a result. Orange is the major citrus crop in Egypt, representing about 80% of the total cultivated citrus area. Egypt’s main orange varieties include Washington Navel Orange and Valencia Orange.

- The USDA forecasts that fresh oranges domestic consumption will decrease by 19.3% from last year to reach 1.25 million tonnes. Decrease in local consumption is attributed to lower production and more growers directing their produce towards exports as worldwide orange demand is on the rise.

- In MY 2021/22, Egypt’s orange exports are expected to decrease by approximately 13.2% to reach 1.45 million tonnes. The anticipated lower production will affect the export volume. However, Egypt is set to maintain its position as the number one orange exporter in MY 2021/22.

Russia, Saudi Arabia, Netherlands, India, Bangladesh, United Arab Emirates, China, United Kingdom, Ukraine, and Oman are likely to remain Egypt’s top ten export destinations for fresh oranges.