Softs News

Oct 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A mixture of the strong British pound and profit taking by the longs caused the market to trade lower in the first few minutes. March 20 lost close to GBP 30 at times and is on its way to the first major support at GBP 1826 / 100 day moving average. Low GBP 1828, close GBP -17 at GBP 1840. New York ended the day at $-7 at $2506 / March 20 and is still trapped in the current sideways trend and certainly a clear sign that the markets are currently being driven by British policy. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire on 20.10.19 are 208,000mt vs. 178,000mt from last year, a gain of 16.9%. Tomorrow the meeting of the World Cocoa Foundation begins in Berlin, announcements of the origin are to come to changes in the sustainability sector.

Oct 22 - Ivory Coast dry spell, sun to improve cocoa main crop - farmers
Lighter rains mixed with sunshine across most of Ivory Coast's cocoa-growing regions will boost the October-to-March main crop after weeks of heavy rain caused disease to spread, farmers said on Monday. The marketing season in Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, opened in early October with a new farmgate price of 825 CFA francs ($1.42) per kg set by the government.

Oct 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report
A firm first half of the last trading day saw quotations rise by GBP 15 to highs of GBP 1884. With New York fully in play, good hedge pressure put both markets under pressure. March 20 LDN broke through Monday's Lows (GBP 1850) and found support at its low of 25.09.19 at GBP 1839. But how could it be otherwise...in the last hour of Friday afternoon the markets recovered thanks to fresh new speculative longs. March 20 closed GBP -9 at GBP 1857. New York tested the upper end of the $2568 range that was ultimately seen, showing highs of $2560 only to end the day with $+2 at $2513. Commitment of Traders seems to have taken out a bit of the "gas", with a net gain of +8,171 lots certainly one of the quieter weeks. Combined, both markets now show an impressive speculative long position of 163,252 lots of net long!!

Oct 21 - Hedge funds increase bearish sugar positions - CFTC
Hedge funds and other money managers increased their net short position in sugar on the Intercontinental Exchange in the latest week, according to data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. Speculators also raised bearish positions in arabica coffee, trimmed their net short position in cotton and increased bullish wagers on cocoa.

Oct 21 - Brazil's No. 1 coffee co-op says 2019 coffee crop basically sold out
Cooxupé, the world's largest coffee cooperative and Brazil's No. 1 exporter, said on Friday it had basically sold all of its supplies in contracts with deliveries extending out as far as May or June next year. Cooxupé's head of trading Lucio de Araujo Dias said the company met "surprising strong demand" recently, and it would face difficulties forming new lots for new orders from now on, despite Brazilian farmers having just finished harvesting the 2019 coffee crop.

Oct 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

In spite of all the volatility, the market remained trapped within the known range yesterday. The approaching "agreement" between the EU and the UK led to a significant appreciation of the British Pound against the EUR and the US$, and on the back of the currency the market temporarily lost GBP 20 and traded at a low of GBP 1861. The market closed March 20 at - GBP 9 at GBP 1866. The North American grinding figures were published after trading hours. With -7.39% clearly below expectations! If a slightly negative figure hadn't caused anyone any headaches, this is a small surprise and the lowest figure for Q3 since 2009! Let's see if the markets react today...

Oct 18 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Report, Week 14-18 Oct 2019 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with a 2% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,442 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase by 2% and 1% respectively with an average of USD 1,660 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,321 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysian black and white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 2,002 per Mt and USD 3,516 per Mt respectively. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper was also reported stable and unchanged averaging at USD 1,702 per Mt and USD 2,626 per Mt respectively. Sri Lanka black pepper steadily moving up gradually, in local market it recorded an increase by 1% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,608 per Mt. Whilst, China white pepper recorded a 1% deficit when compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,610 per Mt.
- In international market, the trend also showed mixed response. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 2% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,722 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported with the same increase by 2% and 1% respectively. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with a decrease by 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,326 per Mt, USD 2,391 per Mt and USD 3,476 per Mt respectively. Whilst, China traded its white pepper in the international level with an average of USD 4,810 per Mt or a decrease by 1% when compared to the previous week.

Oct 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Have the grinding figures published so far made an impression on the market...? No, neither the very good figures from Malaysia nor the disappointing figures from Europe were able to influence the market. Since 25.9.19 prices have been moving in a range of GBP 1853-GBP 1918. The structure continues to play the longs into the pockets of additional profit as their position rolls, so why sell? The current hope for a correction would be a longer lasting sideways movement, which might encourage one or the other longholder to sell. Closing yesterday at GBP 1875 / - GBP 12.

Oct 17 - Subsidy helps India traders sell sugar to Iran - sources
Indian mills are aggressively selling old season sugar to Iran after New Delhi announced a subsidy to help cash-strapped mills export a surplus, five traders said, as Tehran strives to secure food supplies under U.S. sanctions. Exports from the world's biggest sugar producer could put pressure on global prices but will help India reduce its inventories that have driven down domestic prices.

Oct 17 - Cargill names new Brazil leader Sousa to replace Pretti
U.S. Commodities trader Cargill Inc on Wednesday said Paulo Sousa would lead the company's operations in Brazil, taking over as president on Dec. 16 as Luiz Pretti prepares to step down. Sousa will also retain his position as head of Cargill's South American agricultural commodities division, which he has led since 2016, the company said.

Oct 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Grinding figures Q3 19 vs. Q3 18:

ECA -0.05% / GER -2.65% / IVC +11.18% / Malaysia +49.85%

In the first half of yesterday's day, London made approximately 60% of the losses from the previous day gone again. Only the strong British Pound proved to us a rise above levels of GBP 1900, which also marked yesterday's high. The closing price then "only" GBP +25 at GBP 1887 and range seen in the end, with high volatilities, continues to hold. Not surprisingly yesterday the Dec 19 / March 20 spread widened from GBP +35 to GBP +50 on the large speculative long position in the previous month, should theoretically a correction / selling pressure set in or? It wouldn't be the first time the cocoa market has taught us better...Until then, we continue to wait for the origin of the 20/21 campaign.

Oct 16 - Chocolate makers face ethical branding dilemma
Ivory Coast and Ghana's threat to possibly halt the cocoa industry's ethical branding schemes poses a major risk to chocolate makers operating in Western markets where consumer demand for sustainably sourced products is rising. The West African nations, which together produce more than 60% of the world's cocoa, said last week they will re-examine the schemes because chocolate makers have been slow to pay them a "living income" premium for their beans.

Oct 16 - Malaysia offers to increase imports from India after Kashmir row
Malaysia is considering raising imports of raw sugar and buffalo meat from India, potentially easing trade tensions after reports New Delhi could restrict Malaysian palm oil imports following the country's criticism of India's actions in Kashmir. Malaysia is the world's second largest producer and exporter of palm oil after Indonesia. Its benchmark palm oil futures recouped losses to end higher on Tuesday after the announcement by the country's government.

Oct 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Was it the first "touch" of a correction against the background of the enormous net long position of over 155.00 lots (as reported yesterday)? The turnover in London of 2,000 lots by noon does not suggest this. A little more movement south came from the New York market. At the end of the day in London there was a minus of GBP 25 = GBP 1862. In New York the second month fell by US$ 53 to US$ 2470. Should the profit-taking of the longs increase, the first support from GBP 1820 can be expected. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire on 13.10.19: 132,000 mt. In the last season it was 103.000 mt.

Oct 15 - Heavy rains in Ivory Coast threaten cocoa crop
Unusually heavy rain last week in most of Ivory Coast's main cocoa growing regions has disturbed the development of the October-to-March main crop and disease is spreading in some plantations, farmers said on Monday. The marketing season in Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is underway with a new farmgate price of 825 CFA francs ($1.39) per kg set by the government early in October.

Oct 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Due to currency effects, the morning brought us a weaker start to the last trading day. March 19 sought and found good support at GBP 1880 (20 days moving average) and traded to lows of GBP 1869. There, driven by New York, good buying interest set in and brought the market to highs of GBP 1909. Closing almost unchanged at GBP -5 at GBP 1887. New York broke out of the final lethargy and ended the day at $ +46 at $2523 (high $2568). Commitment of Traders as of 08.10.19 show a significant expansion of the long position in London of over 17k lots, New York virtually unchanged. Combined, both exchanges now stand at 155,081 lots net. long. Fundamentally, the possible restructuring of the sustainability programmes continues to occupy the market. Is this just a "lever" of origin to push the industry to buy? The industry still has about 9 months price coverage, the origin has about 3 mio mt to sell for 20/21. The older among us still remember the times when about 70% of the harvest was sold in 3 months before the start of the season....It remains exciting.

Oct 14 - ICE sugar speculators raise bearish bets in latest week - U.S. CFTC 
Hedge funds and other money managers upped their net short position in sugar on the Intercontinental Exchange in the latest week, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The speculator group raised its net short position by 19,968 contracts to 183,243 in the week to Oct. 8, the data showed. 

Oct 14 - China's crackdown on sugar smuggling leaves global storage headache 
A crackdown on sugar smuggling into China has left abundantly supplied markets in elsewhere Asia struggling to absorb excess supplies, causing a wider storage problem for global markets. Vast tonnages of sugar smuggled into China are believed to be produced mostly in India or Thailand and shipped to Myanmar, Laos or Vietnam before entering the Chinese mainland.

Oct 11 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market report, Week 7-11 October 2019 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed response with Sri Lanka recorded the highest increase for its local market price and Viet Nam for its International market price. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,516 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported stable and relatively unchanged at an average of USD 1,624 per Mt and USD 3,284 per Mt respectively. Malaysian black and white pepper were also reported stable with an average of USD 2,000 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,513 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with a decrease by 1% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,702 per Mt. Viet Nam white pepper was reported to be traded stable with an average of USD 2,626 per Mt. Recording a 7% spike as opposed to the previous week, Sri Lanka black pepper became the only product which recorded an increase in local market and was traded at an average of USD 2,570 per Mt. Whilst, China white pepper was reported to be traded with an average of USD 4,635 per Mt.
- In international market, the trend also showed mixed response as only Viet Nam reported an increase. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,797 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported steady with at an average of USD 2,021 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,891 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l and 550 g/l were reported with an increase by 6% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,345 per Mt and USD 2,410 per Mt respectively. Viet Nam white pepper was also reported with an increase by 4% when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,495 per Mt. The increase of Viet Nam prices in international market could be contributed to China buying significant amount of pepper from Viet Nam. As of August 2019, Viet Nam's top country of destination is China. China traded its white pepper in the international level with an average of USD 4,835 per Mt.

Oct 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Once again a GBP 30 bandwidth, once again with little new impulses. A weak opening was followed by lows of GBP 1863 / March 20, after which the market rose slowly and leisurely until highs of GBP 1895 were reached in the afternoon. Closing March 20 GBP +17 at GBP 1892. It seems to look like consolidation in the markets this week. In the news yesterday, the market is preoccupied with the "investigation" and "examination" of all independent sustainability programs of the industry in Côte d'Ivoire & Ghana. Both countries want to take a close look at these programmes in the current 19/20 campaign and question them if necessary. Details will follow soon...

Oct 11 - Ivory Coast, Ghana to 're-examine' cocoa sustainability schemes 
Top cocoa producers Ivory Coast and Ghana said on Thursday they will re-examine the industry's sustainability schemes as chocolate makers have been slow to pay the two nations a living income differential (LID) for their beans. In a bid to ease pervasive farmer poverty, the West African neighbours, which together produce more than 60% of the world's cocoa, introduced the $400 LID in July on all cocoa sales for the 2020/21 season. 

Oct 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday demonstrated well what influence the current structure has on the price development. The Dec 19 / March 20 spread traded, with very good volume, down to GBP +33 and what is the market doing? Downs to a low of GBP 1866 / closing GBP -20 at GBP 1876. Yesterday was also one of the rare days where New York showed itself in the shadow of London, at least in terms of volume. March 20 in NY ended the day at $ -42 an ounce at $ 2426 an ounce.
Otherwise we have little to report at the moment, the industry and the origin are holding back elegantly and life-changing news that can move the market does not yet appear on the horizon.

Oct 10 - Suedzucker 2nd quarter earnings fall after sugar price drop, lower harvest 
Suedzucker, Europe's largest sugar refiner, said on Thursday its second-quarter earnings more than halved and revenues fell as a result of low sugar prices and weaker drought-driven harvests. The group posted an operating profit of 28 million euros ($31 million) in the second quarter ending Aug. 31, down 54.8% from a year earlier. Quarterly revenues fell to 1.64 billion euros from 1.73 billion euros, the company said.

Oct 10 - Brazil cane crush, sugar production jump amid dry weather -Unica 
Mills in Brazil's center-south region increased cane crushing and sugar production in the second half of September, as drier-than-normal weather allowed for a quicker harvesting pace, cane industry group Unica said on Wednesday. The plants produced 1.79 million tonnes of sugar in the period, up 39% from the same time a year earlier. They crushed 35.08 million tonnes, 26% more, while ethanol output increased 32% to 2.18 billion liters.

Oct 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A firm opening was followed by a moving morning session in cocoa, we saw highs in March 20 of GBP 1901 and lows of GBP 1866. The afternoon then had a much firmer trend and finally March 20, with good volume, ended the day at GBP +19 at GBP 1890. Most notably, yesterday's activity on the nearby Dec 19 / March 20 was this one traded at a premium of GBP 52 / close GBP +49, we remember last Friday, where the premium was still GBP +80. New York found good support at the 100 day moving average ($2413) and ended the day at $2468 at $24. The origin still seems to have no pressure, like the big buyers, to actively show up for 20/21 in the market. A dangerous game...On 16 resp. 17.10 the grinding figures for Q3 are published, also here we do not expect any big fireworks (i.e. unchanged). Asia could surprise, here an increase of approx. +10% is expected.

Oct 09 - German association sees new season sugar output up
Germany's refined sugar production in the new 2019/20 season now under way is forecast to rise to about 4.22 million tonnes from 4.19 million tonnes last season, Germany's sugar industry association WVZ said on Tuesday in its second harvest forecast.  But this was slightly down from 4.26 million tonnes in the association’s first estimate for 2019/20 made in September.

Oct 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Right from the start, prices on the markets came under strong pressure. It was the expected reaction to the high speculative long position (see report yesterday) and led to lows of GBP 1860 March 20 and US$ 2420 respectively. The first technical resistances have broken and March 20 ended the day on the trend line (see chart) at GBP 1871 / GBP -27. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire on 06.10.19 were 35,000mt vs. 29,000mt from last year (+20.7%). We assume, however, due to the increased Farmgateprice, a clear Carry Over from the previous year. Even including these, unofficial figures report a record harvest of 2.248 million mt. We remember that the targeted "production ceiling" is 2 million mt for 20/21. Ghana's figures look much gloomier with a 3-year negative record. Despite everything, this government also supports a limitation of the harvest but distributes 78 million seedlings for the current harvest...there remain more questions than answers.

Oct 08 - Brazil's Cooxupé hits record one-day coffee shipment of 215 containers
Cooxupé, Brazil's largest coffee farmer co-op and the no. 1 Brazilian coffee exporter, said it shipped 80,000 60-kg bags of the commodity in a 24-hour period, the highest one-day volume it has moved in a single day in the 87 years of its existence.  Cooxupé, which trades in coffee produced by 15,000 farmers, said the shipment, which was on Sept. 30, corresponded to 215 containers.

Oct 07 - ICE sugar speculators trim bearish bets in latest week - CFTC
Hedge funds and other money managers trimmed their net short position in sugar on the Intercontinental Exchange in the latest week, according to data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. The speculator group cut its net short position by 55,056 contracts to 163,276 in the week to Oct. 1, the data showed. The move came as sugar futures rose 12 percent during the period, driven by deliveries against the October contract that were smaller than expected.  

Oct 04 - Intl Pepper Market Report, Week 30 Sep - 4 Oct 2019 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed response with Indonesia recorded the lowest deficit for its black pepper. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 4,565 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported to be traded negatively and was reported with the lowest ever prices in recent years. Recording a 10% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 1,622 per Mt. The significant decrease in price of black pepper in Indonesia was as result of harvest period currently in full swing which flooded the market with product. Thus, pressuring the price in the local currency to an average of IDR 23,000 per Kg from IDR 25,500 per Kg in the previous week. Indonesia white pepper was reported with a 1% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,279 per Mt. Malaysian black and white pepper were reported with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,002 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,516 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with a decrease by 2% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,726 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,625 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with a 1% increase as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,398 per Mt.
- In international market, the trend also showed mixed response as only Viet Nam reported an increase. FOB price of India black pepper was reported steady at an average of USD 4,847 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with a 9% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,018 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with a 1% deficit when compared with the previous week at an average of USD 3,885 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase by 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,218 per Mt, USD 2,283 per Mt and USD 3,368 per Mt respectively.

Oct 04 - Brazil sugar company Raízen to idle mill in Sao Paulo state
Raízen, Brazil's largest sugar and ethanol producer, will temporarily close the Bom Retiro mill in Sao Paulo, the country's leading cane producing state, the company said on Thursday. Raízen, a 50-50 joint venture between Cosan SA and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, said the decision would allow the company to optimize operations in the Piracicaba production cluster. It said the closure would not impact cane processing projections, since it would divert the cane to be crushed at nearby mills in the region.

Oct 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report
The question of consolidation is getting louder, while firming yet again yesterday, although initially in a very restrained GBP 10 range. However, the upswing was dampened by a stronger British Pound: England's conservative ministers had commented on the latest Brexit proposal as a "possibly tolerable deal". Fund buying was triggered by a weaker start to trading by New York colleagues. The levels then ran to new 11-week highs in both markets; the Mar 20 marked GBP 1939 and finally closed at GBP1906 (+GBP 18). All in all, you don't want to be short at the moment... But what do longs do now? Expand the position or cash in at current levels? On the one hand, we are near the top end of an 18-month range; on the other hand, however, the long position was already larger than it is now. Profit taking in one way or another is likely. Meanwhile, exports of the past harvest from Côte d'Ivoire increased: 1.534 million mt or +9% (beans)/413k mt or +4% (products).

Oct 02 - Analyst Green Pool raises 2019/20 global sugar deficit forecast 

Analyst Green Pool has raised its forecast for an anticipated global sugar deficit in the 2019/20 season to 5.17 million tonnes, raw value, from a previous projection of 3.67 million. The Australia-based analyst said on Wednesday that the wider deficit partly reflected diminished outlooks for production in the European Union and India.

Sep 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report


Despite new highs (GBP 1896 March 20) and a range of GBP 29, it felt like a not very active day in cocoa. March 20 ended Friday at GBP 1880 / GBP -5. Continued good hedge pressure from the origin (almost exclusively for the 19/20 crop starting tomorrow) left the market little room to move up, leading to a weaker afternoon. We assume that over the last two weeks alone about 350-400,000 mt were fixed from the origin. Only Ghana & Côte d'Ivoire hold back with further sales for 20/21 and wait, we suspect, at levels of US$ 2600 + LID + differential. Commitment of Traders as at 24.09.19 show a further very significant expansion of over 30,000 lots of the net long position, exact figures will follow tomorrow. Today the new farm gate price in Côte d'Ivoire will be officially announced, the market assumes an increase to CFA 800-830 (previous year CFA 750).

Sep 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday it was a blueprint of the previous day's performance, after a weak opening with a steady firm pattern and further sticky inverse structure. Once again, the 2nd month Mar20 showed the most activity, which ran steady up to GBP 1889 and came very close to the psychological barrier of GBP 1900. The Mar 20 closed at GBP 1885 (+GBP 18). The Dec19/Mar20 spread meanwhile continued to run on premium of GBP 65, marking a new high. The origin also appeared in the market and caused some hedging in the forwards, which brought the Mar20/Mar21 structure to +GBP98. Fundamentally there is little new to report. In Côte d'Ivoire, President Ouattara, on his tour of the regions, assures that the 2020 elections will take place "under orderly conditions". We hope he is right...

Sep 27 - Large cocoa bean stockpiles in Ivory Coast raise quality concerns
Cocoa buyers have been storing large quantities of cocoa beans in the bush for the past six weeks as they wait for a higher farmgate price, a move exporters worry will damage bean quality, exporters and buyers said on Thursday. The new farmgate price will kick in on Oct. 1, the start of the 2019/20 season, and is expected to rise from 750 to 825 CFA francs ($1.30 to $1.40) per kilogram according to sources at Ivory Coast's Coffee and Cocoa Council.

 Sep 27 - China's Luckin partners with Louis Dreyfus to launch juices
China's Luckin Coffee Inc and International commodity merchant Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) plan to develop a juice business, as the coffee chain expands into new drink categories in its battle with Starbucks Corp. Luckin and LDC's joint venture will produce and distribute co-branded juices and includes plans to build a bottling plant, the companies said in a statement on Thursday.
 

Sep 26 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After a day of a "break" it was yesterday again a strong technical performance. The Dec 19 / March 20 spread traded at, manageable volume,  a premium of GBP +53 and was certainly, combined with the break through of the first month by the psychological barrier of GBP 1900, the main factor of the firm daily performance. March 20 traded at the peak of GBP 1870, closing at GBP +30 atGBP 18670. From the usual channels good weather reports came yesterday from West Africa, especially in Nigeria the target production of 280-300,000mt for the coming harvest seems within reach...if the weather holds!

Sep 26 - Colombia urges coffee buyers to close earnings gap with farmers
Coffee-producing countries must work to close the "abysmal gap" in earnings between farmers and buyers, Colombian President Ivan Duque said on Wednesday, as growers continue to struggle amid low prices. Colombia has repeatedly urged, without success, for major buyers to pay larger premiums for coffee - especially the high-quality arabica beans that its farmers grow.

 Sep 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday also showed that the market is currently not able to break through levels above GBP 1850 / March 20 sustainable. A mix of slight hedge pressure from the origin, profit taking of the Longs and a strong British Pound caused a weaker day. March 20 was trading in a range of GBP 1857 / 1830 and ended the day at GBP -15 at GBP 1837. New York never seemed to wake up and, certainly for currency reasons, followed the London market. Closing here $ -14 at $ 2453. The Dec 19 / March 20 spread continues to move volume and traded to GBP +39 / close GBP +33.

Sep 25 - COFCO to invest more in Brazil, but will be selective, says exec
Chinese state-owned commodities trader COFCO INTL plans to continue to invest in Brazil in the near future after having quickly achieved a significant position in the local commodities market, but will be very selective in choosing next targets. COFCO sources and trades grains, oilseeds, sugar, coffee and cotton in Brazil, where it hosts most of its 36 Latin American warehouses, eight food processing plants and 10 port terminals.

Sep 25 - Ivory Coast 2019/20 cocoa main crop seen in line with last season - poll
Ivory Coast's 2019/20 cocoa main crop is expected to be between 1.65 million and 1.7 million tonnes, broadly in line with the 1.66 million tonnes in the previous season, according to a poll of seven exporters and pod counters. The outlook for the October-March main crop is up from 1.58 million tonnes predicted by pod counters and exporters in July and comes after weeks of favourable weather, they said.

Sep 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

On the back of the Commitment of Traders figures published on Friday (see yesterday's report) it was a cautious start to the week. London quickly reached highs of GBP 1858/March 20 and consolidated the rest of the day at these levels, closing at GBP 1852 at GBP +5. New York saw no new highs for the first time, not surprisingly with a reduction in gross short position within managed money of around 50%, and ended the day at $12 at $2467. Where are we headed? If the structure in London presents a rather bullish picture, New York (technically speaking) cannot yet make up its mind. The question of all questions remains, when does the origin show up with larger sales in the market?

Sep 24 - Ivory Coast cocoa harvest picks up ahead of main crop season -farmers
Cocoa harvesting has picked up in Ivory Coast as rains continue ahead of the October-to-March main crop, farmers said on Monday. Rains were below average last week in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa-growing regions but trees were growing well, a week before the start of the new marketing season, farmers told Reuters.

Sep 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A weak opening - caused by a comeback of the British pound overnight - was compensated only in the afternoon. The origin gladly grabbed the highs at this time and showed up in the market with sales. But when these cover-ups were hedged, quotations on both markets again reached new highs (GBP 1853 Mar20;8th day in a row). The close was at GBP 1847 (+ GBP 2). Further origin sales can be expected. The Committment of Traders shows fresh longs and short covers of the funds, in total we record a new net long position of 73,777 lots (+43,556!). Meanwhile the delegates from the CDI/Ghana at the ECA meeting in Lisbon articulated somewhat unstructured about a planned capping of production volumes. How exactly this works - just: not quite clear yet...

Sep 23 - Dry weather a worry as EU sugar beet harvest starts
Dry weather in some major European Union sugar-producing regions is causing concern as beet harvesting starts, experts said on Friday. A combination of low prices and restrictions on insecticide use has turned some farmers away from sugar.

Sep 20 - Int'l Weekly Pepper Report, 16-20 September 2019 (IPC)

- Market this week showed a rather negative outlook with no origins recorded an increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with a slight deficit by 1% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,549 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported to be traded negatively and was reported with the lowest ever prices in recent years. Recording a 6% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 1,804 per Mt. The decrease in price of black pepper in Indonesia was as result of harvest period currently in full swing which flooded the market with product. Thus, preassuring the price in the local currency with an average of IDR 25,400 per Kg from IDR 27,000 per Kg in the previous week. Muntok white pepper was also reported with a decrease by 2% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,339 per Mt. Malaysian black and white pepper were reported stable averaging at USD 2,055 per Mt and USD 3,592 per Mt respectively. Viet Nam black pepper was reported with a decrease by 2% as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,787 per Mt. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 2,838 per Mt. Furthermore, Sri Lanka black pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 2,402 per Mt.
- In international market, FOB price of India black pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,824 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with the same 6% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,220 per Mt. Indonesia white pepper was also reported with a decrease by 2% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 3,954 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with a decrease by 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,204 per Mt, USD 2,269 per Mt and USD 3,354 per Mt respectively.

Sep 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report
...and now it's only GBP 73 to the highs of 9.7.19. The previous correction since 2.9.19 GBP 153/ 9%. What gives hope? Both stock markets are heavily overbought and perhaps the "weak" longs will take profits before the weekend. Also yesterday there were again "short" coverings as well as new fresh "longs" which pushed the market to the north. Whether the statements "there is agreement to reduce the production of raw cocoa" of the representatives from Ivory Coast and Ghana at the ECA conference in Lisbon had a supportive effect may be doubted. Have we heard similar statements in the past before? Closing yesterday: GBP 1847/ + GBP 32.

Sep 20 - Ghana expected to produce 850,000 tonnes of cocoa in 2019/20 season - industry regulator
Ghana, the world's second largest cocoa producer, is expected to produce 850,000 tonnes of cocoa in 2019/20 season, at the lower end of average levels on account of the swollen shoot disease outbreak, the country's industry regulator said on Thursday. Ghana's annual cocoa production is usually between 850,000 and 900,000 tonnes, though the country had an official forecast of 900,000 tonnes for the current 2018/19 season, which ends this month.

Sep 20 - Honduras coffee exports to fall as farmers' plight deepens - industry
Coffee exports from Honduras are expected to fall in the next harvest, a senior industry official said on Thursday, as lower bean prices in the global market and climate change dented businesses across the Central American country. Honduras, the largest coffee exporter in Central America, expects its 2019-2020 harvest to drop by about 4.6% to 6.6 million bags of 60kg each, the Honduran Coffee Institute said.

Sep 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report
The daily routine on both stock exchanges since the beginning of September is almost the same "more buyer than seller" so simple it is. If you go a little deeper and look back at yesterday's trading, the day was again dominated by short speculative cover-ups and new, fresh, long purchases. Around noon there was a small correction, triggered by hedge sales against coverages from the origin, which were however not of long duration. At the end of the day there was a plus of GBP 17 = GBP 1815 for the Dec 19 date.

Sep 19 - Brazil's 2019/20 sugar exports expected to hit 12-year low - report
Brazilian sugar exports in the 2019/20 season will likely hit a 12-year low, totaling just 18.5 million tonnes as depressed global sugar prices steer cane mills away from export markets, consultancy JOB Economia said in a report on Wednesday. By contrast, Brazil is expected to produce the highest ever volume of ethanol, at 34.2 billion liters, as mills favor the fuel over sugar in their production strategies and ratchet up competition with increasing corn-based ethanol output, JOB said.

Sep 19 - French growers expect sharp drop in sugar beet output
French farmers expect to harvest about 37.7 million tonnes of sugar beet this year, down sharply from the five-year average after severe summer weather affected yields, growers group CGB said on Wednesday. This was also below last year's harvest, mainly because of a smaller planted area as sugar producers looked to cut output that had been boosted by the end of European Union production quotas, the CGB told Reuters.

Sep 19 - Ghana, Ivory Coast to introduce cocoa production ceiling
Ghana and Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producers, are looking at introducing a cocoa production ceiling to support global prices and discourage overproduction, the countries' industry regulators said on Wednesday. The move comes after the West African nations, who produce two-thirds of the world's cocoa, imposed a fixed "living income differential (LID)" or premium of $400 a tonne in July on all cocoa sales for the 2020/21 season.

Sep 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

 The speculators, at the moment more the longs, seem to have fun again to become more active on the cocoa market, as the inverse structure speaks for a hold or increase of a long position. As already on Monday the shorts showed up yesterday with further coverings in the market. Result of the day: in London the 100 days moving average was broken, the 50 days "ma" only touched. In New York, on the other hand, the 50/ 100 and 200 days "ma" were broken in the last few days. From the lows on 30 August (GBP 1694), the London market has recovered by GBP 106 (March20), up to the highs of GBP 1920 at the beginning of July there are "only" GBP 120 left...Closing price: GBP 1798/ + GBP 9.

Sep 18 - Brazil cuts 2019 coffee output forecast to 49 mln bags
The Brazilian government on Tuesday cut its forecast for this year's coffee crop to 49 million 60 kg bags, down from 50.9 million bags projected in May, saying drier than normal weather will hit production in the world's largest grower. That total would mark a 20% drop from last year, when Brazil produced a record crop of 61.66 million bags.

 Sep 18 - Brazil's center-south new cane crop seen growing to 597 mln tonnes - Agroconsult
Brazil's center-south cane crop will grow to 597 million tonnes in 2020/21 from 585 million tonnes expected in the current season, as above-average rains in some producing states boost yields, the Agroconsult consultancy said on Tuesday. The larger cane crush will boost production of both sugar and ethanol, Agroconsult analyst Fabio Meneghin said, adding that mills were expected to countinue allocatingalmost two thirds of the cane to produce the biofuel.
 

Sep 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

 Further short cover-ups by speculators yesterday were decisive for the clear consolidation on both stock exchanges. No wonder, if you take a look at the structure of the market. From the first month - December 19 to March 21 - the market shows an inverse structure.
Thus the "rolling" of a short position becomes expensive, with a long position, on the other hand, extra profit is made! London and New York are slightly overbought, which could give hope for a correction...in the short term, however, it looks more like further short cover-ups by speculators. Closing price yesterday: March 20 GBP 1786/ + GBP 28. Ghana has reduced its expectations for the 19/20 season from 950,000mt to 800,000mt.

Sep 17 - EU crop monitor cuts maize yield forecast, raises sugar beet
The European Union's crop monitoring service on Monday cut its forecast for this year's EU grain maize yield after crops in southeast Europe endured hot, dry weather that had already affected grain belts further west. The 2019 grain maize yield in the EU was now expected to reach 7.63 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), down from 7.93 t/ha forecast last month and 8.6% below last year's level, the MARS service said in a monthly report.

 Sep 17 - Ivory Coast cocoa crop will be more abundant, longer than last year - farmers
Ivory Coast's cocoa harvest could be longer and more abundant than last year's after weeks of rains and sunshine, farmers said on Monday. Harvesting for the October-to-March main crop in the world's top cocoa producer started earlier than usual, but farmers are weary of selling their beans before the official start of season, when earnings could be higher.

Sep 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

On the last trading day of September 19 position, the markets showed a firmer side. Dec 19 in LDN broke through GBP 1800 (High GBP 1808) and ended the day only slightly stronger with GBP +10 at GBP 1790. According to rumours both origins (no comment) were still in the market for quantities in 19/20, this paired with unfixed contracts from e.g. Cameroon / Nigeria should give an interesting contrast to the spec activities. The Sep 19 left the board at 1pm with a discount of GBP 85. The Dec 19 / March 20 spread widened to a new high of GBP +37. Commitment of Traders as at 10.09.19 show an increase (not surprisingly) from 8,135 lots to a combined 30,221 lots net long. Managend Money increased its gross short position by almost 2000 lots.

Sep 16 - Ivory Coast, Ghana strike first cocoa deals with living income premium
Ivory Coast and Ghana have agreed initial deals to sell cocoa with a living income premium of $400 a tonne added to the price, in a bid to reform the way global cocoa is priced, industry sources and a government source told Reuters. In a move aimed at easing pervasive farmer poverty, the West African neighbours, who together produce more than 60% of the world's cocoa, introduced a living income differential (LID) in July on all cocoa sales for the 2020/21 season.

 Sep 16 - India curbs onion shipments by imposing minimum export price
India has imposed an $850 per tonne minimum export price (MEP) on onion shipments, the government said on Friday, as the world's biggest exporter tries to calm local prices ahead of key state elections. The higher export price will help India's rivals China, Egypt and Pakistan raise shipments to buyers such as Bangladesh, Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates and Sri Lanka.

 Sep 16 - Speculators increase short position in sugar to new record
Speculators extended their net short position in sugar in the latest week to a new record, while cutting their short position on arabica coffee and cocoa, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. Hedge funds and other money managers included in the speculator group built their net short position in raw sugar by 25,658 contracts to 230,686 in the week ended Sept. 10. The position is the largest on record in data going back to 2006. This was the fifth consecutive week that the group increased its bearish position.
 

Sep 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With volumes once again disappointing, the general indecision continued yesterday. The Dec 19 closed at GBP (+GBP6) and thus at a new high of the last 5 weeks. But uncertainty about what may come next is clearly noticeable. Perhaps it helps that today at noon the September 19 contract leaves the board. If you look at the reduction of the September position (Sep/Dec19 spread yesterday to a new premium of GBP -160), then it is not to be expected that much cocoa will be tendered. In any case, there doesn't seem to be much passable terminal market cocoa, and there were hardly any gradings. With continously still firm differentials (origin/trade), the ICE still remains the cheapest supplier, despite full carry costs due to the structure.

Sep 13 - Int'l Weekly Pepper Report, 9-13 September 2019 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase by 1% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,604 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as compared to previous week with an average at USD 1,923 per Mt, In local currency, Indonesia black pepper was traded with an average of IDR 27,000 per Kg decreasing marginally by IDR 500 per Kg. Whilst, Muntok white pepper was reported with an increase by 1% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,419 per Mt. Malaysian black and white pepper were reported stable averaging at USD 2,062 per Mt and USD 3,604 per Mt respectively. Viet Nam black pepper was reported with a decrease by 1% as compared to last week, averaging at USD 1,829 per Mt. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 2,839 per Mt. Furthermore, Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with a 2% deficit as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 2,407 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable and unchanged.
- In international market, FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 1% increase as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,884 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,364 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase by 1% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,044 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with a decrease by 2%, 1% and 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,226 per Mt, USD 2,291 per Mt and USD 3,376 per Mt respectively. China traded its white pepper stable in the international level with an average of USD 4,975 per Mt.

Sep 13 - Drought, floods could cut Indian sugar output to 3-year low - trade body
India's sugar output could fall 20% to the lowest level in three years in 2019/20 after drought last year forced farmers to curb cane planting and as floods this year damaged crops in key growing areas, a senior industry official said on Thursday. Lower production could help the world's biggest sugar producer to reduce stockpiles that have been boosted by two years of record output and lower-than-expected exports.

Sep 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With the exception of new highs and lows, yesterday's session was a reflection of the previous day. Dec 19 traded in a range of GBP 1749/1778, closing GBP +17 at GBP 1774. Once again, spreads made a contribution. The Sep / Dec 19 peaked at GBP -164 (there is probably no appetite for stock) and to complete the confusion the Dec 19 / March 20 traded at GBP +31 and remains a mystery. A cursory glance at Open Interest, since 07.08, suggests that most of the "shorts" built up are now in the red. The well-known question remains... when will the Algos / Black Box Trader pull the ripcord? Tomorrow the Sep 19 goes off the board, let's see what the spread still does today...

Sep 12 - Brazil mills cancel sugar delivery contracts as prices dip
Some Brazilian mills have canceled sugar delivery contracts with commodities traders at a cost, an operation known in the market as washout, as New York raw sugar futures touch contract lows and make ethanol even more attractive, millers and analysts said. Historically, Brazilian mills produce more sugar in the second half of the year, when sugar content increases in late-harvested cane due to dryer weather.

 Sep 12 - Ivory Coast, Ghana looking to regulate cocoa industry's sustainability schemes - sources
Ivory Coast and Ghana will meet major chocolate makers and grinders in Abidjan on Wednesday to make plans to regulate the industry's efforts to source cocoa sustainably, multiple trade and government sources told Reuters. The plan comes after years of attempts by industry to self-monitor their sustainable sourcing practices and wipe out the blight of child labour and deforestation from the cocoa sector in West Africa.

 Sep 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A small gap after the opening led to increased buying interest of the Specs in the early morning. The rest of the morning was characterized by boredom. After the opening of NY, Dec 19 London broke the highs of last week (GBP 1775) and reached a new 4 week high of GBP 1777. Instead of continuing to buy the market higher, the origin was in the market and paired with a fixed GBP, prices fell by just under GBP 30. Closing price Dec 19 GBP -7 at GBP 1757. Spreads are still more than active, Sep / Dec 19 others are on GBP -130, Dec 19 / March 20 on GBP +26 and this remains the biggest question mark of these weeks. Today a (further) meeting takes place in Abidjan, Ghana and the IVC have invited to discuss, besides the LID, also a reorganization of the sustainability sector (especially own initiatives).

Sep 11 - Ivory Coast, Ghana looking to regulate cocoa industry's sustainability schemes - sources
Ivory Coast and Ghana will meet major chocolate makers and grinders in Abidjan on Wednesday to make plans to regulate the industry's efforts to source cocoa sustainably, multiple trade and government sources told Reuters. The plan comes after years of attempts by industry to self-monitor their sustainable sourcing practices and wipe out the blight of child labour and deforestation from the cocoa sector in West Africa.

 Sep 11 - Brazil coffee exports fall 8.5% in August - Cecafé
Green coffee exports from the world's largest producer fell 8.5% in August to 2.89 million 60-kg bags, exporters association Cecafé said in a report on Tuesday. Cecafé reported exports of arabica coffee at 2.43 million bags, 7.3% below volumes seen in August last year, while shipments of robusta coffee fell 14.4% to 461,683 bags. Exports of both types of coffee have also fallen when compared to July (see table below).

Sep 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With small volumes and a strong British pound, London once again showed its more sluggish side today. The rather weak levels in the morning finally found their support through level-related purchases close to the 200-day moving average at GBP 1742 Dec19. With the approaching Friday, 13.9., when the first month leaves the board, last positions are still being rolled, and so the Sep/Dec19 spread dropped further to a discount of GBP -110. Worth mentioning that if the Sep19 closes below 1800 GBP on Friday (which is likely), the grading table now shows category D and no longer E. Of course, the allowances / discounts will be much lower for tenders... The unagitated message from the origin: The arrivals increase by another 6000 mts to 2.154 Mio.mt (+12%) .

Sep 10 - Ivory Coast rains subside, dissipating cocoa disease fears
Rains in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa-growing regions were below average last week, allaying fears of flooding and crop diseases that had pre-occupied growers for much of the past month, farmers said on Monday. Harvesting for the October-to-March main crop in Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, has started earlier than usual, and farmers expect it to pick up steadily over the next few weeks, leading to a larger output than last year's.

Sep 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

An unchanged opening was followed by a quiet morning session, with a range of just GBP 7, with no new momentum. A little more life came into play with NY. Dec 19 tested the previous day's highs (GBP 1767) and traded at a high of GBP 1762. The failed breakthrough and slight hedge pressure from the origin led to new sell orders and lowered prices to GBP 1733. This also did not last long and the market recovered and ended the day with GBP +20 at GBP 1757. Commitment of Traders show a relatively small reduction from 1997 lots of the combined position to 22,086 net long as of 03.09. Managed Money increased its gross short position to 29,899 gross short.

Sep 09 - China sugar industry to lobby government for extension of hefty tariffs on imports - sources
Chinese sugar mills plan to ask the nation's Ministry of Commerce to extend hefty tariffs on sugar imports that Beijing imposed in 2017 to protect China's struggling domestic sector, according to two sources and a draft document viewed by Reuters. The plan to request an extension of the tariffs was discussed at a meeting organised by the China Sugar Association on Thursday.

 Sep 09 - Speculators increase net short sugar position to record
Speculators increased their net short position in sugar to a record in the latest week, and also increased their net short on cocoa and arabica coffee in the latest week, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. Hedge funds and other money managers included in the speculator group built their net short position in raw sugar by 12,834 contracts to 205,028 in the week ended Sept. 3.

Sep 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It seems that this week the cocoa market is reacting exclusively to news from the British Parliament. The very strong pound pushed the Dec 19 down to a low of GBP 1736, where the 200-day moving average also provided good support. Closing GBP -27 at GBP 1737. Dec 19 / March 20 approached yesterday from GBP +23 to GBP +13.
From the fundamental side, there is little to report, so it's up to politicians to keep the markets moving.

Sep 06 - Int'l Weekly Pepper Market Report, 2-6 September 2019 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed response with a rather negative outlook as only black pepper Indonesia reported an increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,581 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with a 2% increase as compared to previous week with an average at USD 1,939 per Mt, the increase of black pepper price in Indonesia could be contributed by strengthening of Indonesian Rupiah against the US Dollar. Whilst, Muntok white pepper was traded with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 3,384 per Mt. In local currency, Muntok white pepper was traded with an average of IDR 48,000 per Kg decreasing marginally by IDR 500 per Kg. Malaysian black and white pepper were reported with the same 2% deficit as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,060 per Mt and USD 3,609 per Mt respectively as the price in local currency dropped to an average of MYR 8.6 per Kg and MYR 15.1 per Kg respectively. Viet Nam black pepper was also reported with a decrease by 1% as compared to last week, averaging at USD 1,845 per Mt. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 2,838 per Mt. Furthermore, Sri Lanka black pepper and China white pepper were reported stable with an average of USD 2,451 per Mt and USD 4,775 per Mt respectively.
- In international market, FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,858 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase by 2% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,380 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 4,003 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable with an average of USD 2,260 per Mt, USD 2,325 per Mt and USD 3,410 per Mt respectively. China also recorded a stable international trade for its white pepper with an average of USD 4,975 per Mt.

Sep 06 - Bayer says Monsanto's list of influential people was not illegal
Bayer said a law firm it commissioned to investigate lists compiled by Monsanto of European journalists, politicians and researchers had found no evidence of illegal behaviour. French prosecutors in May opened an inquiry after newspaper Le Monde filed a complaint alleging Monsanto, which was bought by Bayer for $63 billion, had kept files of influential people in a bid to sway public opinion on its pesticides.

Sep 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The strong upward movement continued yesterday. The regained British Pound (we spare ourselves any political comment) was equalized by a firm Dec 19 / March 20 spread, which traded at new highs of GBP +23 (3 weeks ago it was still GBP -23) and was, with cover-ups against the short position, one of the reasons for the firm course of the day. Dec 19 peaked at GBP 1775, closing at GBP 1764. The market is picking up speed towards the 100-day moving average at GBP 1792, which is also the 50% retracement level of the last downtrend. We are curious when and how the origin will be active in the market again, there is still some restraint.

Sep 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Thanks to Boris Johnson, the British pound weakened particularly against the US$ (3-year low below $1.20), which led to expect a firm opening in London, but prices did not start to gain properly until late in the morning. But all the more clearly: the daily high at GBP 1750 Dec 19 was soon reached, and the price continued northbound to the 100-day average (currently around 1791 basis Dec 19), which could mark the next resistance. The Dec19/Mar20 spread ran up to GBP11 premium, triggered by short covering of the specs...a turnaround? The Dec19 closed at GBP 1747 (GBP +31). Côte d'Ivoire reports up to four times higher rainfall than usual, coupled with a lack of sunshine, fueling concerns about mould and black pod disease. The arrivals in the Côte d'Ivoire with 2,148 million mt are +11.8% above the previous year. Will the CCC's holiday returnees soon be back in the market with sales? The levels are at least on course...

Sep 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With the long weekend in the USA, it was up to London to respond to the ultimately seen Commitment of Traders numbers. How did London react until early afternoon? Not at all! A meager GBP 5 bandwidth kept us busy until about 14 o'clock. The "push" upwards to GBP 1728 highs was not of long duration. The weak British Pound blocked a further drop in prices downwards. Closing price Dec 19 GBP +7 at GBP 1716. Next resistance we see at GBP 1735 / 200 days Moving Average, support should start at GBP 1700.
Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire are at 2.148 mt vs. 1.925 mt as of 01.09.19 from the previous year, +11.6%.

Sep 03 - Honduran coffee exports down nearly 30% in August
Honduran coffee exports fell 28.3% in August compared with the same month last year, data from national coffee institute IHCAFE showed on Monday, due largely to falling output. Coffee shipments from Honduras, Central America's top exporter, totaled 339,566 60-kg bags during the month.

 Sep 03 - Flooding fears in Ivory Coast's cocoa regions as disease spreads
Heavy rain in Ivory Coast's cocoa-growing regions threatens to compromise bean quality, raising fears of flooding and crop disease, farmers said on Monday. Harvesting started early for the October-to-March main crop, and farmers expect it to be larger than last year's.

 Sep 03 - ISO forecasts global sugar deficit of nearly 5 mln tonnes in 2019/20
The International Sugar Organization on Monday forecast a global sugar deficit of 4.76 million tonnes in the 2019/20 season, driven partly by lower production in India and Thailand. The inter-governmental body, in its first full outlook for the 2019/20 season which begins on Oct. 1, saw global production falling by 2.35% to 171.98 million tonnes, while consumption will rise by 1.34% to 176.74 million.

 Sep 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

At the end of the week and month on Friday afternoon, the expected, albeit relatively low, stabilisation of quotations became noticeable. The GBP 1700 level was also breached again in the second half of the day as the morning saw fundamental market participants cover prices and funds sell. The Dec19 gained GBP 22 and closed at GBP 1709. The eagerly awaited Commitment of Traders figures then also showed the further reduction of the Net Long Position by -14,020 lots to +24,083 Net Long, the Managed Money buyers increased its Short Position by almost 20,000 lots to -17,026 lots. The direction seems to continue towards short, although the managed money traders are now at similar levels as in March 2019, shortly before the market then increased. We will see how London performs today without its New York colleagues absent for holiday reasons. On the currency side, the probability of a hard Brexit is weighing on the EUR area against the US$, while the ICCO is revising its forecasts and reducing the expected surplus for 2018/19 from 36,000mts to 18,000mts.

Sep 02 - Speculators hike net short position in sugar - CFTC
Speculators hiked their net short position in raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to Aug. 27 to its highest in nearly three months, U.S. government data showed on Friday. Speculators increased their net short position in cocoa to its largest since April, reduced their bearish stance on arabica coffee, and increased their net short position on cotton futures and options, the data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.

 Sep 02 - ICCO halves 2018/19 world cocoa surplus estimate
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) on Friday halved its forecast for the expected global cocoa surplus in the 2018/19 season as growth in grindings, a proxy for demand, is set to outpace production increases. The inter-governmental body estimated there will be a surplus of 18,000 tonnes in the 2018/19 season, which runs from October to September, down from a previous forecast of 36,000 tonnes. It reduced its surplus estimate for the 2017/18 season by 1,000 tonnes to 8,000 tonnes.

Aug 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Tough but steady downward movement after opening yesterday, but selling pressure was evident. During the day, the previous day's low was tested repeatedly, but not breached. In the afternoon, however, and with the help of NY, sellers began to show up and as a result support at GBP 1700 was broken, reaching new lows at GBP 1686 Dec19 for the first time in 16 weeks. Closing Dec 19 at 1687 (- GBP 29). After the significant reduction of the net long position over the past few weeks, perhaps just the beginning and a first sign towards Short? After over GBP200 loss within the last weeks ambitious, but through-out possible. Tomorrow's Commitment of Traders figures will shed more light on the situation. With the US$ slightly stronger again, the British pound remained volatile in the light of Boris Johnson's explosive comments and certainly offered opportunities for the EUR buyers, so the industry showed itself at these low levels with price hedging purchases in the market. Not much new from the origin, but it can be assumed that in view of the weak levels, new sales are handled rather cautiously there.

Aug 30 - Tereos Commodities to shut sugar operations in Kenya, South Africa
French sugar maker Tereos said on Thursday Tereos Commodities would close its offices and halt sugar trading in Kenya and South Africa by the end of March 2020 as part of a global review of its strategy. Tereos, which has reported a sharp drop in profits in the last fiscal year due mainly to a slump in global prices for sugar, has been overhauling its trading branch in recent months.
 

Aug 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Fixed opening, the rest of the day weak with a then in the last 45 minutes slight recovery from the lows. Closing price: GBP 1716 = minus GBP 1. The market is looking for new impulses...the speculators in particular are facing the decision to further reduce the "long" position (since 9.7.19 - 20.8.19 minus 96.278 lots, London fell from GBP 1897 to GBP 1698/- 10.4%), or after this massive reduction to go longer again and set "long" to "short" as another possibility. One of these 3 possibilities will prevail...so all relatively easy in our cocoa market.

Aug 29 - India to provide subsidy to export 6 mln T sugar in 2019/20
India's cabinet has approved incentives of 62.68 billion rupees ($876.74 million) to encourage cash-strapped mills to export 6 million tonnes of sugar in the 2019/20 marketing year starting from Oct. 1. The export subsidies are designed to increase shipments from the world's biggest sugar producer, reducing brimming inventories. But that could pressure global prices which are trading near their lowest level in 11-months.

Aug 28 - U.S. threat to French wine receding, but not lifted - minister
A U.S. threat to impose tariffs on French wine in response to a French tax on big digital companies is receding - albeit not lifted definitively, France's finance minister said on Tuesday. Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire and U.S. officials reached a deal on the sidelines of a G7 summit at the weekend in Biarritz, southwestern France, to end a standoff over the tax of 3% on revenues earned in France.

Aug 27 - EU crop monitor cuts 2019 maize, sugar beet yield forecasts
The European Union's crop monitoring service, MARS, on Monday cut its forecast for EU maize and sugar beet yields this year, citing damage from hot and dry weather in western and northern-central Europe. Maize (corn) and sugar beet, mostly harvested in the autumn, have endured record-breaking temperatures together with drought conditions in June and late July in many parts of the bloc.

Aug 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Without participation of the London market and with a later opening, it was despite (or just because of) a wild ride in New York. Under the weight of the significant reduction in long position (see report yesterday), New York gained nearly $40 within 30 minutes. The Dec 19 forward traded to highs of $2279, then collapsed to lows of $2220. Closing unchanged at $2238. We are curious how London will react today...

Aug 27 - Brazil coffee co-ops say weather to hurt 2020 crop - statement
Brazilian coffee cooperatives said in an unusual joint statement on Monday that weather conditions have been negative to coffee trees in recent months and will lead to a lower-than-expected harvest next year. In the statement, signed by 19 coffee farmers' organizations including heavyweights Cooxupé and Minasul, the co-ops said expectations from market players of a record crop in 2020, when Brazil returns to the on-year in its biennial production cycle, are not supported by conditions seen in coffee fields.

 Aug 27 - Ivory Coast rain helps cocoa crop, disease appears - farmers
Above-average rain last week was expected to boost the start of Ivory Coast's October-to-March main cocoa crop but high humidity has aided the spread of disease, farmers said on Monday. The main crop is expected to start next week, earlier than usual, but farmers said more sun was needed to dry the beans and keep black pod disease at bay. They deemed the situation not yet alarming.

Aug 26 - App looks to get tips from coffee drinkers to Colombia growers
An app that sends money in the form of tips from appreciative caffeine devotees around the world to coffee growers in Colombia could help farmers battered by dismal prices earn more income, the initiative's founder said. Many growers in the Andean country, the world's top producer of washed arabica, are struggling to scratch a living even though high-quality Colombian beans remain sought after by coffee drinkers around the world.
    

 Aug 26 - Speculators hike cocoa net short position to 3-mth high - CFTC
Speculators hiked their net short position in cocoa on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to Aug. 20 to a three-month high, U.S. government data showed on Friday. Speculators increased their net short position in raw sugar, boosted their bearish stance on arabica coffee for the sixth straight week, and reduced their net short position on cotton futures and options, the data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.

Aug 26 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

On Friday, the "mini correction" on the cocoa market continued but with far less activity. Dec 19 traded in a range of GBP 1732 /1715, closing slightly weaker at GBP -6 at GBP 1717. New York was much more active but ended the day at $ +8 at $ 2238. Commitment of Traders as of 20.08 show a further significant reduction in the net long position from 31,902 lots! Both markets now stand at only 38,103 lots net long. Mainly responsible for this are approx. 70% new shorts within the Managed Money category in NY. As a reminder, on 23.07 the combined position was 122,665 net long (closing price LDN was GBP 1894). Corresponds to a 75% reduction and losses of almost GBP 200 within 4 weeks. The question now is, how much appetite do the specs have for more shorts? London remains closed today (Late Summer Holiday), New York opens later at 14:30.

Aug 23 - Int'l Weekly Pepper Report, 19-23 August 2019 (IPC)

- Market this week showed mixed response with a rather stable outlook as only Malaysia recorded deficit. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 4,692 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was also reported steady with an average of USD 1,896 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared with the previous week, averaging at USD 3,406 per Mt. In local currency, Muntok white pepper was traded with an average of IDR 48,500 per Kg increasing marginally by IDR 500 per Kg. This week, Malaysian black and white pepper was reported with a decrease by 3% and 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,267 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,840 per Mt for white pepper. Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper reported with an increase by 1% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,509 per Mt while China white pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 4,795 per Mt.
- In international market, FOB price of India black pepper was reported steady with an average of USD 4,971 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable and unchanged. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was traded with 1% increase as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,026 per Mt. Contrary to the farm gate price, Malaysia FOB prices for black and white pepper continued stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported stable averaging at USD 2,270 per Mt, USD 2,335 per Mt and USD 3,420 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was also reported stable and unchanged averaging at USD 4,995 per Mt.

Aug 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday's trading began steadily. Dec 19 rose to GBP 1739, but as trading began in New York, speculators started selling again. The result was a breakthrough through the 200-day moving average (GBP 1732). The closing price was GBP 1723, unchanged from the previous day. Mr Brexit's talks with Mrs Merkel and Mr Macron seem to be working, for whatever reason. The English currency has strengthened significantly in recent days and is trading this morning at 0.9039 against the euro.

Aug 23 - Brazil cuts sugar, ethanol output forecast for 2019-20 crop
The Brazilian government on Thursday scaled back its projections for center-south sugar and cane-based ethanol production in the current crop, despite expectations for a slightly larger crush, blaming lower sugar content in the cane. The country's center-south region is expected to produce 28.97 million tonnes of sugar in 2019-20, compared to 31.44 million tonnes projected in May, according to a report by agricultural statistics agency Conab. The region is expected to crush 571 million tonnes in the period, 5 million tonnes more than previously estimated.

Aug 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

As a sustained "holding" at levels below GBP 1700 / Dec 19 failed, fundamental buying caused prices to rise. Driven by NY and breaking through the $2200 barrier, prices rose to GBP 1727 / $2214 in the highs. Closing GBP 1723 / GBP +25 and $ 2207 / $ +33. The convergence of the near Sep / Dec 19 spread to GBP -68 (2 days ago it was GBP -81) certainly contributed to the rise yesterday. Surely a few more firm days will be needed to speak of a correction. Next resistance should start at GBP 1735 (200 days moving average).

Aug 22 - How Brazil and Vietnam are tightening their grip on the world's coffee
A towering machine rumbles through the fields of Julio Rinco's farm in the Brazilian state of Sao Paulo, engulfing whole coffee trees and shaking free beans that are collected by conveyor belts in its depths. This automatic harvester is one of several innovations that have cut Rinco's production costs to a level that few who use traditional, labour-intensive methods can match.

  Aug 22 - Mexico and U.S. reach deal to end tomato tariff dispute
Mexican tomato producers struck a last-minute agreement with the Trump administration to avert an anti-dumping investigation and end a tariff dispute that has rumbled on for months, government officials said on Wednesday. Under the draft accord with the U.S. Commerce Department, the majority of Mexican tomato exports will be subject to U.S. border inspections, and specialty tomatoes face higher reference prices on the American marketplace.

Aug 22 - Russia cuts sugar exports, but shipments may rise in new season - analyst
Russia cut its white sugar exports sharply in the twelve months to July 30, but may lift them significantly in the new season due to weak domestic prices, IKAR, one of the leading agriculture consultancies in Moscow, said. The country has doubled sugar output over the past ten years to reduce its reliance on imports and began exporting a couple of seasons ago, mostly to nearby former Soviet republics.

Aug 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

An unchanged opening was followed by a tired morning session with a bandwidth of just GBP 5 and no 1000 lot turnover. Due to currency movements, Dec 19 rebounded briefly, trading at highs of GBP 1719, before further speculative selling put pressure on prices once again. Dec 19 broke through GBP 1700 and ended the day at GBP -19 at GBP 1698 near its low (GBP 1696). Algos, Black Box etc. seem to continue to have an appetite to go short in New York. Next support we see on the lowest prices of mid-May GBP 1664. On these prices "then" began a rally which brought us to the beginning of July highs of GBP 1949.

Aug 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

On the back of the big liquidation of the long position (see yesterday's report), both markets took a deep breath yesterday.  Dec 19 traded in a range of GBP 1730/1711, closing slightly higher at GBP +6 at GBP 1717. After almost 3 weeks, it was the first trading day with no new lows. After the close of trading, an "anonymous" source on Bloomberg said the first sales were made for 20/21 from Côte d'Ivoire. Incl. LID and a lot of discounts the prices are said to have been around $ 2170,-. Quite far away from the targeted $ 2600,- and with a lot of open questions. Did this now set the "starting signal" for the 20/21 campaign or was it a sign, free of the motto "Yes we can", that at least one sale can be realized? It remains exciting.

Aug 20 - Ivory Coast sunny weather supports next main cocoa crop – farmers
Rains last week in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa growing regions were below average but dew and good soil moisture content augured well for the next October-to-March main crop, farmers told Reuters on Monday. The April-to-September mid-crop is tailing off, and farmers are now focusing on the next main crop, which runs officially from October to March.

Aug 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Further speculative sales put prices under pressure right from the start. Even lively / sustained buying interest on the part of fundamental market participants does not seem to be stopping the current downtrend. With GBP 1706 / Dec 19 we reached a new 14 week low on Friday. Closing Dec 19 at GBP -10 at GBP 1711. Next support, both technical and fundamental, we see at GBP 1700, then GBP 1670. Commitment of Traders per 13.08 shows a reduction of the combined net long position of over 30,000 lots! Now only "lean" 70,005 lots net long. Within the Managed Money category the picture is clearer. The specs each liquidated around 13,000 lots, in New York there is now a small speculative gross short position of a good 5,000 lots. "Chartists" and "analysts" now see the technical correction long overdue. However, this statement has been repeated several times a day for 2 weeks...

Aug 19 -  Top natural rubber producers ending export curbs - sources
The world's top producers of natural rubber are not extending curbs on exports of the commodity, two sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Monday. The International Tripartite Rubber Council (ITRC), which comprises Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, in March agreed to implement curbs on around 240,000 tonnes of rubber exports over four months in a bid to prop up prices for the commodity.

Aug 16 - Int'l Weekly Pepper Report, 12 - 16 August 2019 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed response with a rather negative outlook. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with 2% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,679 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported steady with an average of USD 1,894 per Mt. Following the arrival of new crop, Indonesia white pepper was reported with a slight 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 3,366 per Mt. In local currency, Muntok white pepper was traded with an average of IDR 48,000 per Kg Malaysian black and white pepper were reported stable with an average of USD 2,340 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,860 per Mt for white pepper. Viet Nam black and white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged. Following the end of harverst season both in Sri Lanka and China, Sri Lanka black pepper and China white pepper were traded with the same 2% deficit as compared with the previous week with an average of USD 2,493 per Mt and USD 4,790 per Mt respectively.
- In international market, FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 2% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,960 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable and unchanged. Whilst Indonesia white pepper was traded with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 3,982 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase by 1% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,265 per Mt, USD 2,330 per Mt and USD 3,415 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was traded internationally with 2% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 4,990 per Mt. The decrease in price of China white pepper aside from the effect of harvest season, it was also contributed by the slight weakening of Chinese Yuan against US Dollar.

Aug 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The opening was much firmer than expected, but as in the days before, further Longs liquidation became apparent. Another downtrend yesterday, which brought new Lows (GBP 1719 Dec 19). The Sep19/Dec19 spread drifted apart to - GBP77, also a new low for the contract. With retail sales in the UK above expectations, the British Pound was able to recover slightly, partially offsetting the weaker quotes, especially for the EUR's fixed-price buyers. Dec 19 closed at GBP1721 (GBP-9). We will see what today brings, a further reduction in the long position can be expected.

Aug 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The massive downward trend continued yesterday. While it looked like consolidation at the beginning, further sales of the Specs / Funds put further pressure on the quotations. Dec 19 broke through the long-term 200-day moving average at GBP 1735, closing at GBP -12 at GBP 1730. The industry also followed the market yesterday until the end of 2020, but no wonder the losses of over GBP 130 within a good week and a still attractive currency provide interesting fixed prices. New York broke through the $ 2200  mark in the second month yesterday, closing at $ 2204 / -4. We are looking forward to the next COT figures, as already described yesterday, a reduction of the speculative position between 10-15,000 lots can be expected

Aug 15 - Latam cocoa growers, inspired by West Africa, eye price floor
Latin American cocoa could soon demand a minimum price of $3,200 per tonne if a proposal from Peru finds support at a gathering of regional producers on Thursday, one month after their counterparts in West Africa announced a shift in how they price beans. Cocoa-producing countries have been searching for ways to protect farmers from market swings after global overproduction sent prices crashing in 2016-17, and as ongoing oversupply has meant a slow recovery in prices.

Aug 15 - Cameroon expects to double cocoa processing this season to 120,000 T
Cocoa processing output in Cameroon, Africa's third biggest cocoa grower, is expected to double this season to 120,000 tonnes from 58,000 tonnes last season, the trade minister said while opening the new season. Trade Minister Luc Atangana was speaking at the opening of Cameroon's 2019/20 cocoa season on Tuesday, in comments published in a statement on Wednesday.

 Aug 15 - Dreyfus sugar unit Biosev quarterly loss narrows on currency, cost cuts
Biosev SA, the Brazilian sugar and ethanol maker controlled by Louis Dreyfus, posted a quarterly loss of 169 million reais ($41.72 million) on Wednesday, 66.7% smaller than a year ago, on positive currency effects as well as cost cuts, the company said. Biosev said it crushed 10.88 million tonnes of sugarcane in the quarter, 3.4% less than in the same period last year, mostly due to a late start to the harvest. But agricultural yields were up 3.8 percent, to 88.4 tonnes of cane per hectare, which signals a possible larger final crush for the current season.

Aug 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The "longs leave the sinking ship" so it seems since about 10 days...a correction is overdue in the "oversold" markets London and New York. It is a similar scenario as in July, but this time in the opposite direction. The industry also accompanied the market yesterday with price hedging purchases. The persistent weakness of the English currency against the euro is making very interesting prices possible. Yesterday's procedure: opening unchanged, as a result there were massive sales by speculators first in London, followed in the afternoon by sales in New York. Yesterday, after the close of trading, the "future positions" of the market participants had to be named for the "Commitment of Traders" to be expected next weekend. A further reduction of the net long is expected. Closing yesterday GBP 1742/-30.

 Aug 14 - Ivory Coast's main cocoa crop harvest could start early Sept - farmers
The harvest for Ivory Coast's main cocoa crop could start at the beginning of September, weeks earlier than last year because of heavy rain over the past month, farmers told Reuters on Tuesday. Ivory Coast's main crop runs officially from October to March, though that can vary depending on the weather.

 Aug 14 - Brazil's Sao Martinho avoids sugar hedge, sees mid-term price recovery
Brazilian sugar and ethanol maker Sao Martinho SA  is refraining from hedging sugar for the next season, believing that prices have reached a floor and are likely to recover in the mid-term, Chief Financial Officer Felipe Vicchiato said on Tuesday. "I don't think sugar prices could fall further, that is why we are not doing much hedge for next season," Vicchiato told analysts in an earnings call.

Aug 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After yesterday's in-depth analysis. London opened with a plus of GBP 12 as expected. The firm morning was still marked by the massive reduction in the net long position. In the afternoon there was some selling pressure from New York which led to a minus of GBP 7 / GBP 1772 at the end of the day and a plus of US$ 3 / US$ 2245 in New York.

Aug 13 - USDA raises domestic sugar stocks outlook
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Monday raised its outlook for domestic sugar stocks as it slightly increased its production outlook for the 2019/20 crop year. The USDA put the closely watched stocks-to-use ratio at 13.7 for 2019/2020 compared to its forecast of 13.5 last month.The department in its monthly report increased its production outlook for the year to 9.308 million short tons (8.44 million tonnes) from the 9.260 million tons expected last month on higher cane output from Florida.

Aug 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It was a quiet end to the week in both markets. Dec 19 traded in a range of GBP 12 around the 100 days moving average at GBP 1782. Closing GBP +2 at GBP 1779. New York recorded the 14th consecutive loss, closing $-12 at $ 2242. Commitment of Traders as of 06.08.19 show a significant reduction in the net long position from 17,169 lots to 101,392 net long. If we split up the markets, the picture is clearer. While LDN only reduced just under 2,000 lots, the NY specs reduced their position by more than 15,000 lots, and the Managed Money Specs In NY, which built up nearly 4,000 lots of fresh shorts gross, are also interesting. Understandably, NY lost $124 / LDN GBP -82 in the last reporting period. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire were 2,123 million mt vs. 1.937 million mt from 17/18 (+9.6%) as at 31.07.19.

Aug 09 - Intl Weekly Pepper Report, 5-9 August 2019 ( IPC)
- Market this week showed a rather negative outlook. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with 3% deficit as compared with previous week with an average of USD 4,762 per Mt. Indonesia Black and white pepper were reported with the same 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 1,894 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,402 per Mt for white pepper. As Indonesian black and white pepper in local currency were traded unchanged as opposed to the previous, the decrease in Indonesia pepper prices were highly contributed to the weakening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar by 181 points. Malaysia black and white pepper were also reported to be traded with 1% deficit locally as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,341 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,862 per Mt for white pepper. Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 2,544 per Mt. Whilst China white peppper was traded at an average of USD 4,872 per Mt.
- In international market, FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 3% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 5,045 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with a 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 2,328 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,022 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported to be traded with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,245 per Mt, USD 2,310 per Mt and USD 3,395 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was traded internationally at an average of USD 5,072 per Mt.
- US market was reported stable and unchanged with Muntok spot price being reported at USD 5,072 per Mt.

Aug 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The continuing downtrend continued, albeit at a slightly weaker level. Dec 19 looked for and found good support at the 100 day moving average at GBP 1780, closing at GBP -8 at GBP 1777. It seems that the specs will continue to give up positions and the industry is taking them up with thanks. Volume was on the high side with a combined turnover of over 120,000 lots. Apart from the technical correction and as mentioned in the previous reports, there are currently few reasons why the market should not continue to drop further. Next support now at GBP 1733 / 50 days Moving Average. Volume of the exchange in July: LDN 654,486 lots (+10.6%); NY 855,795 lots (-3.2%). The harvest was thus traded approx. 3.3 times in July. We wish you a nice weekend

Aug 09 - Brazil's 2019 coffee harvest nearing end, says analyst  
Brazilian coffee farmers have harvested 93% of expected production in 2019, as field work continues at a quicker pace than seen in the past, agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercado said in a report on Thursday. Harvest at this time last year had reached 88% of the fields while the five-year average for the period is 84%, Safras said, adding that most farms in the world's largest producer have already finished collecting their beans.

  Aug 09 - Some 430 acres of Colombian bananas infected with fungus
A 175-hectare (430-acre) section of Colombia's banana crop has been contaminated with the fusarium R4T fungus, the national agricultural institute said on Thursday, as it called for a countrywide effort to increase sanitary controls to contain the malady. The fungus, popularly known as Panama disease, can remain in the soil for up to 30 years by attacking the roots of banana plants, which are Colombia's third-largest agriculture export after coffee and flowers.

Aug 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Too much, too fast? It seems that the advocates of this theory have to wait even longer for the technical counter-movement. Dec 19 broke through the GBP 1800 barrier and, despite good industrial activity, only found good technical support towards GBP 1780 / 100 days moving average. Closing price Dec 19 GBP -21 at GBP 1785. Next big fundamental buying interest we see starting at GBP 1740. New York recorded the 12 day in a row with bigger losses, closing price Dec 19 $-37 at $ 2266. The question is when will the market turn? Technically (markets clearly oversold) a correction should set in, only the specs will continue to sell. In line with the current market movement, the President of Côte d'Ivoire announced yesterday that the 2020/21 crop would not be marketed below US$2600.

Aug 08 - Brazilian mills slash sugar hedging to lowest level in eight years
Brazilian sugar producers have hedged only 58% of their expected exports in the current season, the lowest level in eight years, as low prices reduce the use of futures contracts by mills as a way to guarantee future revenue. According to a report released on Wednesday by Brazil-based Archer Consulting, Brazilian sugar companies have sold forward in New York's ICE the equivalent of around 11.2 million tonnes of raw sugar.

Aug 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday also showed that the market will continue to be made in New York. The further roll of the Hedgefunds provided yesterday in New York for the eleventh loss in a row. London's only "anchor" to fall more clearly seems to be the weak British Pound. Dec 19 tested GBP 1803 as the low, the support mentioned yesterday at GBP 1800 and ended the day at GBP -25 at GBP 1806. If the 1800 mark were breached, the market would have air to GBP 1780 / 100 days moving average. In New York today the 10 & 100 day Moving Average cross, this signal led in the past rather to a firmer course. Ghana yesterday announced to raise the farmer price for the 19/20 campaign from 7600 to 8000 Cedi, equivalent to about 67% of the current futures price and close to the target of the promised 70% for the next crop.

Aug 07 - Sugar's share of Brazil cane crop seen at all-time low - FCStone
Brazilian mills are expected to allocate only 34.7% of the current cane crop to sugar production, an all-time low, as they focus the rest of the cane in the main center-south region on ethanol, broker and analyst INTL FCStone said on Tuesday. The production mix dedicated to sugar was forecast 0.5 percentage point below the previous record low seen last season and 2.4 percentage points below the May forecast, INTL FCStone said, as mills favor ethanol due to better financial returns.

 Aug 07 - Ghana to raise cocoa farmers’ prices by 5.2% - sources
Ghana will raise cocoa farmgate prices by 5.2% for the 2019/20 season, the first increase in four years, following strong sales of export contracts to chocolate makers and cocoa houses, industry sources told Reuters. The farmgate price will rise to 8,000 Ghanaian cedi ($1,523.81) per tonne in the season starting in October, from 7,600 cedi per tonne last season, the sources at industry body Cocobod and its marketing arm Cocoa Marketing Company (CMC) said on Tuesday.

Aug 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A mix of various causes (hedge pressure from the origin, speculative selling, etc.) yesterday caused a breakout from the bandwidth ultimately seen. Dec 19 broke through the 50 days moving average at GBP 1856, traded on Lows from GBP 1828 around, much weaker, to end the day at GBP -31 at GBP 1831. Next support we see now at GBP 1800. New York recorded the 10th day in a row with significant losses and lost over $250 in 10 days now, certainly triggered by larger rolls of hedge funds before the First Notice Day next week. The industry used the weak market and the weak GBP to hedge the market until 2020.

Aug 06 - Ivory Coast's first lady meets U.S. senators over call for cocoa embargo
Ivory Coast's first lady Dominique Ouattara met a delegation of U.S. senators on Monday to appeal their call for an embargo on Ivorian cocoa over the alleged use of child labour. In July, Senators Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Ron Wyden of Oregon urged the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency to block the import of cocoa made with forced labour, citing a Washington Post investigation that indicated the sector in Ivory Coast still relied on indentured child labour.

 Aug 06 - Brazil yet to decide on tariff-free quota for ethanol
The Brazilian government has yet to decide whether to renew a tariff-free quota for imports of ethanol virtually all supplied by the United States, Agriculture Minister Tereza Cristina Dias said on Monday, as the end of the quota approaches. Brazil currently allows for 600 million liters per year of ethanol to enter the country with no tariff, but the provision expires at the end of this month. If it is not renewed, future imports will be subject to a 20% tax.

Aug 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

At least in London it was a restrained end of the week in cocoa. Dec 19 was trading in a range of GBP 1859/1885, closing GBP -4 at GBP 1862. New York has been much more active in the last few weeks, certainly due to currency movements, NY lost more than $ 200 in the last 9 trading days, London "only" GBP 42. This led to an approach of the arbitrage of over GBP 40 and traded Friday at GBP -72 / Dec 19.
Commitments of Traders as at 30.07.19 show an expansion of the speculative long position in LDN of 2,000 lots (market change in the last reporting period GBP -6), while in New York over 4,500 lots were liquidated into specs and 1,100 lots of new shorts came into the market (market change in the last reporting period $ -92!).

Aug 05 - Speculators hike arabica coffee net short position to 5-week high - CFTC
Speculators hiked their net short position in arabica coffee on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to July 30 to its largest in five weeks, U.S. government data showed on Friday. Speculators reduced their bearish stance on raw sugar, reduced their net long position in cocoa, and cut their net short position on cotton futures and options, the data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.

Aug 05 - Honduran coffee exports drop slightly in July
Honduran coffee exports fell 0.5% in July compared with the same month last year, the Honduran Coffee Institute (IHCAFE) reported on Friday. Honduran exporters shipped a total of 684,453 60-kg bags compared to 688,193 bags in the same month of 2018, according to IHCAFE. Honduras only produces arabica coffee.

Aug 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The volume in the cocoa market increased noticeably yesterday after lowering of US federal interest rates. Already in the morning the losses of the previous day were compensated and new highs (GBP1892 Dec19) were quoted. All this with the British Pound remaining weak, against the US$ as it has not been since January 2017. The expected weak start in NY finally also put London under pressure, the Dec19 closed almost unchanged at GBP 1866 (-GBP2). In Côte d'Ivoire, President Ouattara is paving the way for the election in 2020: he is planning a constitutional amendment according to which a president (as before) may only be a maximum of 75 years old. The former presidents Bédié & Gbagbo would be out of the running. Trump once again has time for renewed threats of punitive tariffs from Chinese imports, which caused unrest in the $ region yesterday. We'll see what the cocoa market makes of it today.

Aug 02 - Int'l Weekly Pepper Market Report, 29 July - 2 August 2019 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase by 1% as compare to the previous week averaging at USD 4,892 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with a 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 1,918 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,446 per Mt for white pepper. As Indonesian black and white pepper in local currency were traded unchanged as opposed to the previous, the decrease in Indonesia pepper was highly contributed to the weakening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar. Malaysian black pepper was reported to be traded with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,369 per Mt. Whilst, Malaysian white pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 3,909 per Mt. Viet Nam black pepper was reported to be traded with 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,876 per Mt while Viet Nam white pepper was reported unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with a slight increase of 1% as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,538 per Mt.
- In international market, FOB price of India black pepper was reported with an increase by 1% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 5,182 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with a deficit of 1% as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 2,358 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,074 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported stable averaging at USD 2,265 per Mt, USD 2,330 per Mt and USD 3,415 per Mt respectively.
- US market was reported stable and unchanged with Muntok spot price being reported at USD 5,072 per Mt.

Aug 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Brief review: on 8.7.19 December 19 was quoted at a high of GBP 1949. Yesterday's closing price of GBP 1869 was a correction of GBP 80 / 4.1%. New York fell in the same period from US$ 2606 to US$ 2394. Correction in NY US$ 212/ 8.1%. It seems that the speculators in New York are a little more selling than their colleagues in London at the moment. One can therefore be curious as to how the market (the speculators) will react to increased price hedging purchases by the industry. The uncertainty about the effects of the "price agreement" between Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire continues. From today's perspective, however, one thing seems to be becoming apparent: the differential for raw cocoa remains high and with it the ratio for cocoa butter and cocoa mass.

Jul 31 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Again it seems that the market yesterday, in the meantime, has found its bottom. Dec 19 was trading, with little volume and an equally uninspiring range, mainly at levels just below GBP 1900. Closing GBP +8 at GBP 1888. Yesterday too, the only "noise" was that of the new PM on the island, which led to a further collapse of the local currency vs. the EUR and US$. The industry temporarily exploited this weakness and accompanied the market with price hedges until 2020. Little news from a fundamental point of view, the focus is now on weather reports from WA. More rain or less rain ? Opinions cannot be further apart. First estimates of the "specialists" speak for 19/20 a deficit of over 100k up to a surplus of over 100k mt...Silly Season.

Jul 31 - Canal Sugar to build grains terminal in Egypt's Damietta
Canal Sugar, owned by Dubai-based Al Khaleej Sugar Refinery, plans to build a pier and grains terminal in Egypt's port city of Damietta with $200 million in investments, its CEO said on Tuesday. The new terminal will have discharge capacity of 3,000 tonnes of grains per hour, CEO Islam Salem told a news conference. The company expects to finalise a contract with the government for the pier and terminal by the end of the year, Salem said in response to a Reuters question.

Jul 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It was now the 5 days in a row on the London cocoa market with lower lows and highs (mini-down trend?). However, with less than 11,000 lots and a range of GBP 17 / Sep 19, we also recorded the quietest trading day of the year. Sep 19 ended the day slightly firmer at GBP +12 at GBP 1880. However, all eyes were on the currency yesterday, driven by (once again) discussions from the new PM about a possible "hard brexit", the US$ recorded its strongest performance since Q1 2017, and the EUR also traded at a multi-year high against the GBP.

Jul 30 - Brazil high quality coffee suffers, burning some traders
Brazil is producing less top quality coffee this year despite a bumper crop overall because of unusual pre-harvest weather, burning some traders counting on the beans, said industry sources. The market for Brazilian fine cup arabicas is tighter than normal, causing a premium for the origin over New York futures, which is particularly rare this time of the year, said traders, who requested anonymity to discuss the market-sensitive matter.

  Jul 30 - Australia’s Mackay Sugar accepts Nordzucker takeover
Farmers who own shares in Australia's Mackay Sugar have voted to accept a takeover offer from Germany's Nordzucker, helping secure the company's future against a backdrop of depressed world sugar prices. The offer was approved by a 75% majority of Mackay's shareholders, they said in a statement on Monday.

 Jul 30 - Ivory Coast rains to boost cocoa main crop - farmers
Above-average rainfall last week in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa growing regions will boost the October-to-March main crop, but more sun is still needed, farmers said on Monday. The mid-crop, which lasts from April to September in the world's top cocoa producer, is coming to an end as few beans were leaving farms and producers focus on the main crop.

Jul 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Firm start, weak end. The attempt to drive the prices north failed. Selling pressure from speculators in New York brought the New York market a minus of 2% last week, while London remained unchanged! On the lows of the day, price hedges were mainly bought by industry in New York. Closing price London Dec19 GBP 1868/ minus GBP 12. The "uptrend channel, (see chart) was breached, how sustainable this will be the coming days will show. The speculators increased their net long position by 6,682 lots to 122,665 lots in the week to 23.7.19.

Jul 29 - Brazil's center-south cane crop seen slightly smaller than previous season
Brazil's center-south 2019/20 sugarcane crop is forecast in a range between 559 and 570 million tonnes, compared with 573 million tonnes processed by mills in the previous season, agricultural research body Pecege said in a report on Friday. Pecege said average agricultural yields in center-south are expected in a range between 74.2 and 75.6 tonnes per hectare, versus 74.3 t/ha last season.

 Jul 26 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Report, 22-26 July 2019 (IPC)
- Market this week showed a rather negative outlook. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 4,866 per Mt. As Lampung is currently undergoing harvest period, Indonesia black pepper was reported with a 4% deficit as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 1,930 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper reported stable averaging at USD 3,468 per Mt. Indonesian black and white pepper in local currency were traded with an average of IDR 27,000 per Kg and IDR 48,500 per Kg respectively. Malaysian black pepper was reported to be traded with 2% deficit as compared to the previous week. Whilst, Malaysian white pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 3,926 per Mt. Viet Nam black pepper was reported to be traded with 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,901 per Mt while Viet Nam white pepper was reported unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper continued to be traded negatively as the harvest period progressed. Recording a 3% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,524 per Mt. China white pepper was reported unchanged averaging at USD 4,688 per Mt.
- In international market, FOB price of India black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 5,155 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with a deficit of 4% as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 2,373 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported unchanged averaging at USD 4,099 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported to be traded negatively with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,273 per Mt, USD 2,338 per Mt and USD 3,423 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,888 per Mt in the international market.
- US market was reported stable and unchanged with Muntok spot price being reported at USD 5,072 per Mt.

Jul 26 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It seems as if the heat wave in Europe has also taken full control of the cocoa market. It was a tired / arduous meeting yesterday, the meager 500 lots net sales in London at noon speak volumes. Dec 19 sometimes traded at prices of GBP 1865, ended the day almost unchanged at GBP -3 at GBP 1880. A Reuters survey of 10 analysts / traders etc. revealed a slight deficit expectation for the coming campaign of around 80,000mt (still a balanced year), as well as a year-end price / 2 month of GBP 1882. That was a whole 2 points above yesterday's closing price. Means we are now moving sideways until Christmas, we think / hope not ... We wish you a nice weekend.

Jul 26 - NY cocoa seen edging up as market flips to deficit - poll
New York cocoa prices are forecast to end the year marginally above current levels as the market looks set to flip into deficit in the 2019/20 season, a Reuters poll of 10 analysts and traders showed on Thursday. ICE New York cocoa was expected to end the year at $2,515 a tonne, up 2% from Wednesday's close and 4% versus the start of the year, according to the median forecast of responses. Prices ended last year up 28%.

Jul 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Consolidation around the GBP 1900 level was also announced yesterday. With very low sales again, prices in London moved within a range of GBP 1907/1888. The closing price was GBP 1894 = minus GBP 10. The New York market showed its weak side yesterday and fell by 1.67%, while London only lost 0.53%. The industry, in contrast to last week's activities, also held back yesterday with price hedging purchases as far as possible.

Jul 24 - Indonesia's rubber production to drop 15 pct in 2019 due to disease - ministry official
Indonesia's natural rubber output is expected to drop 15 percent in 2019 compared to 2018's production of 3.76 million tonnes due to a fungal disease, a senior agriculture ministry official said on Wednesday. "The (disease causing) fungus has attacked around 381,900 hectares (of plantations) and is predicted to spread further," said Kasdi Subagyono, the ministry's plantation director general.

 Jul 24 - Brazil sugar lineup plunges as mills cut export business
Brazil's sugar line-up, or the amount of the sweetener to be loaded at local ports, plunged in July to the lowest in at least five years, as mills refrain from sugar export business amid declining global prices. According to shipping agency Williams, only 745,000 tonnes of sugar would be loaded to ships at Brazilian ports around July, 28% less than in the same period last year, when local production had already been reduced.

Jul 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After days of consolidation, at current levels just below GBP 1900, yesterday saw movement in the markets. LDN was pulled up from NY like a dog on a leash. Not surprisingly, we are at the lower end of the long term up channel (see chart). The Sep 19 traded within a GBP 1874/1910 range, ending the day at GBP 1904 at GBP +29, just above the psychological barrier of GBP 1900. The arbitrage extended to a GBP -137 discount yesterday. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire on 21 July were 2.11 million mt vs. 1.928 million mt from the previous year (+9.5%)

Jul 23 - Bunge and BP team up in Brazil bioenergy venture, create No. 3 sugarcane processor
U.S. commodities trader Bunge Ltd and British energy company BP Plc said on Monday they will merge their Brazilian sugar and ethanol operations to create the world's third-largest sugarcane processor. The joint venture is the largest deal in Brazil's bioenergy sector since Royal Dutch Shell joined forces with Cosan to form industry leader Raízen in 2011.

  Jul 23 - More rain and sun needed ahead of Ivory Coast main cocoa crop, say farmers
Rains were below average last week in most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa growing regions and more sun was needed for the main October-to-March main crop to develop well, farmers said on Monday. As the April-to-September mid-crop comes to an end in the world’s top cocoa producer, planters said pods for the Ivory Coast's next harvest were developing well, thanks to good soil moisture content.

Jul 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the good North American grinding figures (plus 3.71%) the Asian milling figures show a clear plus of 16.28%! The market has taken note of both figures without any major activities. Also on Friday London moved in a very narrow range of only GBP 17 in Dec. 19. With very small turnovers Dec. 19 closed with a plus of GBP 7 = GBP 1875. The "Commitment of Traders Report" from 9.7. - 16.7.19 shows a clear reduction of 18,398 lots in the net long position to a total of 115,983 lots. A reduction of this size was to be expected after the market reached new highs on 8.7. + 9.7. and profit-taking began.

Jul 22 - Speculators hike net short position in raw sugar - CFTC
Speculators sharply increased their net short position in raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to July 16 to a five-week high, U.S. government data showed on Friday. Speculators cut their net long position in cocoa, increased their bearish stance on arabica coffee, and trimmed their net short position on cotton futures and options, the data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.

Jul 19 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, 15-19 July 2019 (IPC)
- Market this week showed mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with a slight decrease by 1% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,847 per Mt. As Lampung is currently undergoing harvest period, Indonesia black pepper was reported with a 2% deficit as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 2,008 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper reported an increase by 1% as compare to the previous week averaging at USD 3,478 per Mt. Indonesian black and white pepper in local currency were traded with an average of IDR 28,000 per Kg and IDR 48,500 per Kg respectively. Malaysian black pepper reported to be traded with 2% deficit as compared to the previous week. Whilst, Malaysian white pepper was reported with a slight increase of 1% as compare to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,437 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,933 per Mt for white pepper. Viet Nam black pepper was reported to be traded with 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,919 per Mt while Viet Nam white pepper was reported unchanged, averaging at USD 2,847 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper continued to be traded negatively as the harvest period progressed. Recording a 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,592 per Mt. China white pepper was reported to be traded with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,680 per Mt. The slightly drop in China was contributed to the harvest period currently in full swing.
- In international market, FOB price of India black pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 5,138 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was also reported with the same decrease by 2% as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 2,461 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesian white pepper recorded a slight increase by 1% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,111 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l and 550 g/l were reported to be traded negatively with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,295 per Mt and USD 2, 360 per Mt respectively. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable, averaging at USD 3,445 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with an even higher deficit of 4% as opposed to the previous week at an average USD 4,880 per Mt in the international market.

Jul 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The bandwidth yesterday, whole GBP 30. Turnover very low. Consolidation seems to be on the cards...The industry has used the weak English currency, in part, to buy price hedges. At the end of the day there was a minus of GBP 3 = GBP 1871. Today the North American grinding figures are expected. All market participants are waiting for the first sales (Ghana and Ivory Coast) from the 2020/21 season and perhaps then a little more "clarity" will come into the market what to expect in the future!

Jul 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Disappointing ECA grinding figures, minus 3.15% in Q2 2019. Expectations were 1-2% plus. The market did not react to these figures. It seems more like the market needs time to breathe after the very nervous last week. The second month, now December 19, ended the day with a plus of GBP 14 = GBP 1835. Technically, the market should find its first support at a level of GBP 1800.

Jul 17 - Prices of cardamom, Queen of Spices, soar as wild weather wipes Indian production
Every year, tens of millions of Hindus flock to the Venkateswara Temple in the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh to pay tribute to site's patron deity and pick up some of its famous sweets, the legendary "Tirupati laddu". The traditional delicacy is baked with sugar, flour, ghee, nuts and raisins and studded with cardamom, which has surged in price this year as India's erratic weather ravages production of the pod, known as "the Queen of Spices".

Jul 17 - Ivory Coast, Ghana end suspension of cocoa sales after price agreement - letter
Top cocoa growers Ivory Coast and Ghana agreed on Tuesday to lift the suspension of cocoa sales for the 2020/2021 season, according to an official letter seen by Reuters. The suspension of forward sales was lifted after the two countries agreed to a new pricing mechanism that will boost prices for growers even as it could raise the cost for buyers.

Jul 16 - More rains, sun needed to boost Ivory Coast cocoa crop - farmers
Rains were below average last week in most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa growing regions ahead of the October-to-March main crop, while some areas were too cloudy, farmers said on Monday. Cocoa planters however said flowers and small pods continued to proliferate on trees, thanks to good soil moisture content. Farmers said they were applying chemicals in plantations to avoid diseases and to help pods to grow bigger.

Jul 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the "high rush" with a peak price of GBP 1939 on 8.7.19, the market is back within the range of GBP 1870/1803, which has continued since 10.6.19. "Back to normal if it weren't for the rising differentials for raw cocoa and the associated and rising rates for cocoa butter and cocoa mass. The cocoa market will remain very interesting and very volatile and every "moment of weakness" should be used to hedge prices. September 19 ended yesterday's trading day with a minus of GBP 48=GBP 1821. The Brazilian milling figures also show a significant increase over the previous year with a plus of 14.66%. Today the ECA grinding figures are expected. A plus of 1%-2% is expected.

Jul 16 - India to keep sugar export subsidies even as rivals complain - sources
India will keep its sugar export subsidies despite complaints to the World Trade Organization (WTO) from rival producers Brazil and Australia, though it will tweak how it provides them, four sources directly involved in the matter said. The export subsidies are designed to increase shipments from the world's second-biggest sugar producer and reduce their brimming inventories. But that could pressure global prices that have only eked out a 2.1% gain this year after plunging more than 20% in 2018.

Jul 15 - Speculators cut arabica net short position to nearly 2-yr low
Speculators cut their net short position in arabica coffee on ICE Futures U.S. to its lowest in nearly two years in the week to July 9, U.S. government data showed on Friday. Speculators hiked their net long position in cocoa to a one-year high, cut their bearish stance on raw sugar, and increased their net short position on cotton futures and options, the data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.

 Jul 15 - Colombia to create fund to rescue coffee farmers when prices drop
Colombia, the world's top supplier of washed arabica, is creating a special fund to subsidize coffee farmers when international prices fall below production costs. The stabilization fund, announced by President Ivan Duque late on Thursday, is the country's latest bid to help farmers struggling as coffee prices have fallen to their lowest in more than a decade and many are operating at a loss.

Jul 12 - Weekly Pepper Int'l Market report, 8-12 July 2019 (IPC)

- Market this week showed mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable and relatively unchanged as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,874 per Mt. India black pepper price in local currency was reported at INR 334 per Kg on Thursday. Indonesia black and white pepper was also reported stable as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 2,054 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,435 per Mt for white pepper. Indonesian black and white pepper in local currency trade an average of IDR 29,000 per Kg and IDR 48,500 per Kg respectively. Malaysian black and white pepper was reported stable and relative unchanged as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,476 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,911 per Mt for white pepper. Viet Nam black pepper was reported to be traded with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,931 per Mt, whilst Viet Nam white pepper reported unchanged, averaging at USD 2,847 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper continued to traded negatively and was reported the lowest ever prices in recent years. Recording a 23% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,069 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,706 per Mt.
- In international market, FOB price of India black pepper was reported stable as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 5,165 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was also reported stable as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 2,512 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,060 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported unchanged, averaging at USD 3,685 per Mt and USD 5,275 per Mt respectively. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported stable and relatively unchanged as compared to the previous week with an average at USD 2,309 per Mt, USD 2,374 per Mt and USD 3,459 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported with a 4% increase as opposed to the previous week at an average USD 5,106 per Mt in the international market.
- US market was reported stable and unchanged with Muntok spot price being reported at USD 5,072 per Mt.

Jul 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday was the third day in a row with bigger losses, we are now only GBP 15 away from the start of this week. The rally on Monday was accordingly of short duration. The Sep 19 found good support at GBP 1854 / 10 days moving average and ended the day at GBP -22 at GBP 1854. Next support and greater buying interest we see around GBP 1800. The Sep / Dec 19 spread traded to a new low of GBP -89, is someone not left out of position here or is there not such a big panic about the supply of cocoa? Next Tuesday the European Grinding figures will be published, we expect a moderate increase of about 2%. After the turbulent week we wish you a nice and relaxed weekend...

Jul 12 - USDA raises domestic sugar stocks outlook, reduces Mexican import forecast
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Thursday raised its outlook for domestic sugar stocks as it sharply reduced its forecast for imports from Mexico for 2019/20. The USDA put the closely watched stocks-to-use ratio at 13.5 for 2019/2020 compared to its forecast of 12.4 last month. The department in its monthly report increased its production outlook for the year to 9.260 million short tons (8.4 million tonnes) from the 9.138 tons seen last month on higher cane output from Louisiana.

Jul 12 - Brazil escalates WTO dispute over India sugar subsidies
The Brazilian government said on Thursday it had asked the World Trade Organization to establish a panel aimed at resolving its dispute over Indian sugar subsidies, according to a joint statement by the foreign and agriculture ministries. The WTO's Dispute Settlement Body is expected to take up Brazil's request at its meeting scheduled for July 22, the statement said. Australia and Guatemala also lodged complaints against India on Thursday, according to the ministries.

Jul 12 - Small farmers say low coffee prices could eliminate unique flavors
Small farmers in countries where production is still mostly artisanal and coffee is a subsistence crop are looking for ways out of the current price crisis, saying failure to guarantee higher income will eventually extinguish unique coffee flavors. Increased global coffee output in recent years due in part to higher productivity in countries using machinery and irrigation have driven coffee prices to decade lows, leading small-scale producers with higher production costs to struggle to make a profit.

Jul 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The fortification, triggered by the grinding figures in Malaysia +45.1% and Ivory Coast +11.2%, was not "sustainable". As on Tuesday, profit taking by the "Longs" as well as hedge sales put the market under pressure again in the last 90 minutes. After the dramatic rise on Monday, with a high of GBP 1939, the Sept. 19 forward fell yesterday to GBP 1866 and ended the day with a minus of GBP 21=GBP 1876. One could almost say: "back to normal" the closing price on Friday July 5 was quoted at GBP 1838. The same can be seen in spreads. The July/Sept. fell back to -GBP 74, Sept./Dec. to -GBP 29. First support should start from GBP 1805/1800...

Jul 11 - Ivory Coast, Ghana add 'living income' cocoa premium to fight poverty
Top global cocoa producers Ivory Coast and Ghana have imposed a fixed "living income differential" of $400 a tonne on all cocoa contracts sold by either country for the 2020/21 season, an official letter seen by Reuters shows. The premium, which replaces an earlier proposal for a floor price for cocoa contracts, is part of a wider plan to combat poverty among farmers in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together account for more than 60% of global supply.

  Jul 11 - Colombia proposes coffee nations group to provide bigger influence on market
Colombia proposed on Wednesday that coffee producing nations form an association to have a stronger influence in the coffee market, as producers from around the world meet in Brazil to discuss the economic sustainability of coffee production. "We need action, because the problem is clear: there are 25 million coffee producers that can barely cover their production costs," said Eugenio Velez, a director at Colombia's coffee federation in the opening ceremony of the 2nd Global Coffee Producers Forum.

Jul 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the dramatic rise and immensely volatile spreads, the market recovered from these events yesterday. Sep 19 temporarily lost close to GBP 50 (half of the previous day's "gains"), traded at lows of GBP 1887 and ended the day just below the psychological barrier of GBP 1900 at GBP -38 at GBP 1897. Spreads normalised, with good volume, too, and Sep/Dec 19 traded back to GBP -22, Dec 19/ March 20 at GBP +15. Was it just profit taking by the longs and hedge pressure from the origin yesterday? Similar to the previous day, all market participants are puzzling over the immense volatilities of the last few days. One thing is certain: until the Cocoa-Pec comes into the market for 20/21, these volatilities will certainly continue to accompany us closely. It feels like a "Silly Season" on steroids...

Jul 09 - Brazil frosts hit coffee, sugarcane areas; production impact seen
Frosts were reported in several agricultural areas in Brazil over the weekend, including coffee and sugarcane production regions, and cooperatives and companies expected some impact as they assessed the situation. Cane, coffee, late-planted winter corn and wheat are the most vulnerable crops in Brazil's south and southeast regions, where frosts were reported as the country was hit by the most intense polar air mass so far this year.

 Jul 09 - Speculators cut bearish arabica coffee bet to 1-1/2 year low
Speculators reduced their net short position in arabica coffee on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to July 2 to its lowest since Oct. 2017, U.S. government data showed on Monday in a report delayed because of the U.S. Independence Day holiday. Speculators reduced their bearish stance on raw sugar for the fifth straight week, cut their net long position in cocoa, and cut their net short position on cotton futures and options, the data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.

 Jul 09 - Abundant rains offer good prospects for main Ivory Coast cocoa crop: farmers
Above-average rainfall mixed with sunshine in Ivory Coast's cocoa-growing regions last week could boost the forthcoming October-to-March main crop, farmers said on Monday. The April-to-September mid-crop in Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is tailing off and farmers said they were closely watching the development of the next main crop as no big pods were seen on trees yet.

Jul 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Another upward movement, on the back of the firm end of the previous day, failed last Friday. The morning saw pressure on the price, with Sep 19 trading at a low of GBP 1822, closing at GBP -10 at GBP 1839, and moderate volume. The Ivory Coast/Ghana decision continued to occupy market participants on Friday. The so-called Living Income Differential of US$ 400 is now, contrary to the previous idea, always added to the FOB selling price to guarantee the farmer a minimum price of $ 2600 (of which he receives about 70%). The difference over $ 3000 is paid into a stabilisation fund, which is supposed to compensate losses below $ 2600. We are still looking forward to the implementation, as both origins should come into the market soon for 20/21

July 05 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, 1 - 5 July 2019 (IPC)

Market in the first week of July 2019 showed mixed response albeit slightly negative. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with a 2% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,879 per Mt.India black pepper price in local currency was reported at INR 336 per Kg on Thursday. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable, whilts Indonesia white pepper was reported to be traded with a deficit by 1% as compared to the previous week. Averaging at USD 2,052 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,431 per Mt for white pepper. Indonesian black and white pepper in local currency were traded at an average of IDR 29,000 per Kg and IDR 48,500 per Kg respectively. Malaysian black and white pepper was reported stable and relatively unchanged as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,475 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,908 per Mt for white pepper. Viet Nam black pepper was reported to be traded with a slight 1% deficit as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,945 per Mt, whilst Viet Nam white pepper reported unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper continued to be traded negatively and was reported with the lowest ever prices in recent years. Recording a 5% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,681 per Mt. China white pepper followed the negative trend and was traded with a 2% deficit.

In international market, FOB price of India black pepper was reported with slight deficit of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 5,169 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 2,509 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported to be traded with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported unchanged, averaging at USD 3,685 per Mt and USD 5,275 per Mt respectively. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with a 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week with an average USD 2,315 per Mt, USD 2,380 per Mt and USD 3,465 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported with a 2% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average USD 4,921 per Mt in the international market.

US market was reported stable and unchanged with Muntok spot price being reported at USD 5,072 per Mt.


Jul 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With yesterday's meeting in Abidjan in the background, it was a cautious trading day with low volume. It was only late in the afternoon that profit taking from New York put the market under pressure. Sep 19 ended the day at GBP -20 at GBP 1809. The LDN / NY arbitrage came under pressure and is still volatile, trading in the last 3 days from GBP -95 to GBP -135 and now back to GBP -120. Findings from Abidjan? The Living Income Differential of $400 is fixed, this comes to bear when the spot month falls below $2600 (FOB). Many of the industry representatives are critical of the feasibility (there was no news on this), representatives of the two countries understand / do not share these concerns. "If you don't want to pay the price, you should go somewhere else! After all, it is a free market" is the answer of origin. It remains exciting and we are expecting first first-hand reports today...

Jul 04 - Coffee farmers meet in Brazil amid crisis, seek alternatives
Organizations representing coffee farmers from around the world will meet next week in Brazil as the sector faces one of its hardest times, with prices barely covering production costs and pushing farmers out of business. Brazil's city of Campinas, in the southeast state of Sao Paulo, will host the 2nd World Coffee Producers Forum on July 10-11. The first edition was held in 2017 in Medellin, Colombia.

 Jul 04 - Industry doubts remain over I.Coast, Ghana cocoa floor price
Ivory Coast and Ghana - the world's leading cocoa producers - failed on Wednesday to come to an agreement with the chocolate industry over how to introduce a new floor price for their exports. The West African neighbours said last month they would fix a minimum price of $2,600 per tonne (free-on-board) that chocolate companies must pay from the 2020/21 season if they want to access their more than 60% share of global supply.

  Jul 04 - Premium prices attract small farmers back to coffee growing in Zimbabwe
David Muganyura smells the coffee cherries on the slopes of his plot and breaks into a smile, as he chats to workers who are harvesting a crop he expects to be his biggest to date. A long-time Zimbabwean coffee grower, Muganyura almost gave up on the crop when prices slumped to as low as U.S. 20 cents a pound at the turn of the millennium, and foreign buyers took flight after land seizures drove out more than 120 white commercial coffee farmers under the banner of post-colonial reform.

  Jul 04 - Ethiopia sugar imports to jump by more than a quarter as output drops - USDA
Sugar imports into Ethiopia, Africa's second-most populous country, are expected to climb 29% in 2019/20 from the previous year as production falls, a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) attache said in a report published on Wednesday. Ethiopian sugar production for the 2019/20 season is pegged at 240,000 tonnes, down sharply from the USDA's previous estimate of 400,000 tonnes, as the sector grapples with bad weather and mismanagement, the attache in Addis Ababa said.

Jul 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

On the back of Monday's strong upward movement (triggered by reports of the destruction of illegal plantations and the play with uncertainty over the feasibility of the minimum price), the market opened firmer. The Sep 19 date breached the previous day's highs by one (1) GBP, but lacked the momentum to move prices further north. With 30 minutes to go, there was some small profit taking and Sep 19 ended the day at GBP 1829 / GBP -15 on the 10 day moving average. Further activity in the grading room in LDN led to a very weak Jul / Sep 19 spread of GBP -51! Also here mainly still larger quantities of Regrades Cameroon. The market is waiting for solid news from today's meeting in Abidjan. It promises to continue to be a exciting week in cocoa...  

Jul 03 - Colombia coffee federation calls for $2 floor for prices
Colombia, the world's leading grower of washed Arabica coffee, called on Tuesday for an international base price of $2 per pound so that producers can have a guaranteed income that would prevent farmers abandoning the sector. Colombian coffee producers have faced a crisis in recent months due to low international prices, prompting the government to earmark $79.5 million for subsidies, debt relief for farmers and the renewal of coffee plantations.

Jul 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report   

From the beginning there was only one direction: north. The range on the 1st trading day in July 2019 was GBP 42. The high was GBP 1848 and just below, with GBP 1844 = + GBP 39 the day ended. It is suspected that speculative buying was the main trigger for yesterday's fortification before the talks in Abidjan started on 3 July 19. The long-term "downtrend" that has continued since May 2018 has not yet been broken (see chart). This week could be exciting, with all the accompanying news (e.g. the destruction of illegal plantations in Côte d'Ivoire, it is spoken of 500,000mt!) from the origin before the meeting in Abidjan. People who have been active in the cocoa world for a long, very long time have heard announcements of this kind several times in the last 40/50 years and are more or less covered up with any comments.

Jul 02 - Ivory Coast to eliminate illegal cocoa output to control supply
Ivory Coast plans to stamp out illegal cocoa production from national parks and forest reserves over the next five years to control output better and support a new floor price, officials from the government and its cocoa regulator told Reuters. The plan will be announced this week at a meeting in Abidjan where officials from Ivory Coast and Ghana will discuss with the industry details of the strategy to establish the floor price, said three officials, who asked not to be named.

Jul 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

While the morning focused on the 19 options that expired last Friday in July (went off the board at GBP 1796), the late afternoon saw pressure on prices. Triggered by a volatile July / Sep 19 spread (GBP -43 to GBP -25), Sep 19 traded at lows of GBP 1803. Closing GBP -16 at GBP 1805 near the low and strong support at GBP 1800. The industry continued to accompany the market with price hedges close to lows. Otherwise silence in the cocoa market...the fundamental market participants are waiting for new insights and details on the feasibility from the minimum price meeting on 3 July in Abidjan. Commitment of Traders as at 25.06. with -96 lots almost unchanged the combined net long positions now stand at 124,203 lots.

Jul 01 - Four trade houses buy record-large raw sugar delivery - traders
Sucres et Denrees (Sucden), Alvean, ED&F Man, and Louis Dreyfus Company scooped up the delivery of the July raw sugar against ICE Futures U.S. contract that expired on Friday in the largest delivery on record, traders said. The delivery against the July raw sugar contract on ICE Futures U.S. totaled about 41,500 lots, about 2.1 million tonnes of raw sugar, three traders told Reuters.

Jul 01 - Ivory Coast and Ghana team up for greater share of chocolate wealth
Kouakou Kinimo is a pretty typical Ivory Coast cocoa farmer. He works a small holding. At 52, he's roughly the mean age for a West African grower. And, like many farmers, he doesn't want any of his six children to follow in his footsteps. "I suffered," he said, seated beneath a tree dripping with green cocoa pods on his plantation near the border with Ghana. "I worked so hard and have nothing to show for it."

Jul 01 - U.S. senator says he's blocking USDA nominees over biofuel waivers
Senator John Kennedy of oil refining state Louisiana is blocking the confirmation of three senior appointees to the Department of Agriculture until the department butts out of parts of the administration’s biofuels policy, according to a letter he sent this week to Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue. The move underscores the rising sensitivity of U.S. biofuel regulations requiring ethanol in gasoline, which have split the rival oil and corn industries and torn President Donald Trump between two key constituencies in his reelection campaign.