Softs News

Jan 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Even after just under a month, excluding Thursday's / Friday's downward excursion, the GBP 2000 mark / base 2nd month seems to have lost none of its appeal. May 23 reached a new high of GBP 2008 in the new mini uptrend that has been in place for a week. Closing price May 23 GBP +23 at GBP 2006, thus above the ominous barrier. After last Friday's lows of GBP 1928, the market has now rallied GBP 80 or just 4%. Quite an impressive performance despite the average volume.  The March / May 23 spread also recovered from its lows at GBP +17 to end the day at GBP +27.

Jan 26  - Sri Lankan desiccated coconut industry closed 2022 with rising exports (IHSmarkit)

- 21% increase in exported volume
- Main importers: the UAE, India, Egypt and Iran

- Sri Lanka’s desiccated coconut exports closed 2022 at 43,750 tonnes valued at $96.5 million, 21% more year-on-year in volume and 11% less in value. The sharp fall in rupee value against US dollar due to Sri Lanka’s bankruptcy and International Monetary Fund intervention raised sales but at low prices, particularly in H2 2022.

- The main importers were the UAE, India, Egypt and Iraq, which accounted for 10.3%, 9.3%, 9.0% and 6.9%, respectively, of the volume.

- The fresh price averaged LKR84.1 ($0.22) per coconut in coconut auctions held on 19 January, 8% more month-on-month and 38% more y/y. The robust increase in price is due to a combination of inflation, the fall in the Sri Lankan rupee against the US dollar and supply scarcity.

- Wholesale desiccated coconut prices ranged from LKR500-590 for fine (+5% m/m) and from LKR580-600/kg for medium (+5% m/m) on 10 January, according to the Sri Lankan Coconut Development Authority.

Analysis
- Sri Lankan processors have cleared out supply of fresh coconuts, pushing up prices. The weak Sri Lankan rupee against the US dollar makes this scenario difficult, being aligned with Indonesian prices, which are traditionally sold with discounts against Sri Lankan and Philippine desiccated coconut. This outlook may encourage an expansion of the coconut crop in 2023.

Jan 26  - Guatemalan cardamom exporters withdraw from offering (IHSmarkit)

- Gulfood could be next turning point in prices
- Estimate for 2022-23 crop downgraded from earlier expectations

- Guatemalan cardamom prices declined to their lowest levels in about 10 years in Q4 2022 but gained 25% at local level last week mainly due to farmers not wanting to bring their cardamom to the market any longer. Albert Berisa of Rotterdam trader Catz International told S&P Global Commodity Insights that Guatemalan cardamom farmers did not want to sell at the current levels and many have already started to switch to alternative, more lucrative crops.
“Immediately that also reflected on the availability and offers as well as the prices internationally because now all of a sudden the majority of exporters are withdrawn from the market and are not willing to offer,” he added.

- This is despite the fact that the latest price indications on export material are around 20% higher than those of Q4 2022, Berisa noted. Marco Van der Does of Van der Does Spice Brokers confirmed that he was also seeing the withdrawal of Guatemalan cardamom exporters, adding that this was particularly the case with the mixed yellow qualities (MYQs). He recalled that the price fall in Q4 2022 coincided with the start of harvesting of the new crop and then subsequent arrivals of the first new crop material. Berisa added: “There is the potential for another rise,” Berisa said. “It also depends what happens in the Middle East because in February (20-24) there will be Gulfood in Dubai and usually around that time a lot of new contracts are being concluded by the largest Middle East buyers and of course the exporters, despite the fact that they have already sold about 70% of the production of this season, knowing that there is still demand from Saudi Arabia, Dubai and Northern African markets and other Middle East countries, such as Syria, Iraq, Iran and Egypt. If the demand is big at that time we can expect some more fireworks in terms of price increases for cardamom.” Van der Does noted that coverage ahead of Ramadan can be another key turning point.

Continuous demand
- In recent weeks there has been the usual ongoing demand from the Middle East and Asia. Most of the lower grades of cardamom have been sold so the main focus now will be on the green cardamoms and the seeds, which are usually the most expensive types. Van der Does observed that Asian buyers are currently absent due to the Chinese New Year and in Vietnam the Tet festival.
S&P Global Commodity Insights current price data shows Guatemalan bold green cardamoms of approximately 8 mm size at $13,500 per tonne cif Middle East. Seeds are at $8,000/tonne cif any destination and MYQ of minimum 360 g/l at $5,500/tonne cif any destination. Van der Does said he had seen offers on MYQs ranging from 340-360 g/l (depending on the supplier’s specification offer) even lower at $3,900-3,940/tonne c&f. Light green cardamoms could be obtained for $10,000/tonne c&f and bold greens at $12,500-13,000/tonne c&f. However, any such price indications remain academic for the time being with exporters not actually offering product for sale.

- Berisa suggested that if Gulfood spurs a substantial further upturn in demand then prices could increase by as much as 20% in a short space of time. He noted that the last 20 years has shown much more volatility in cardamom than previous years.

Lowered crop estimate
- Latest trade estimates put Guatemala’s 2022-23 crop around 44,000 tonnes, down from the earlier forecast range of 45,000-50,000 tonnes. The downward revision is attributed to farmers reducing collections of cardamom due to the low prices and cutting down some of their cardamom for the same reason along with adverse weather in some areas. Berisa noted that based on export volumes in 2022 he views the 2021-22 crop as likely to have ended up around 42,000-44,000 tonnes, added to which there was probably a carry-over of 2,000-3,000 tonnes. Cardamom plantings done three years ago have now reached their optimum capacity so from now onwards a decline is expected, unless Guatemalan farmers plant extra “which most probably they will not do because they are not enticed by the current price levels,” Berisa said. An estimated 20% of the current crop is still to be harvested and this is expected to continue into April as per the norm.

- In addition, there are collectors who are also holding on to stocks and not willing to release these until prices reach a more appealing (i.e. more lucrative) level. Moreover, there is stockpiling and speculation locally. Hence, there could be a decline in Guatemalan cardamom exports this year in view of exporters and collectors holding on to stocks which they purchased at lower levels and waiting for higher prices before they will sell these. Van der Does added that reductions in India’s maximum residue levels of pesticides – resulting from an expansion in the country’s Integrated Pest Management production and overall standards in this regard – means that this origin will now be able to export more of its cardamoms to meet EU standards. “That will take away some of the demand for Guatemalan cardamom,” Van der Does explained.

Jan 26  - Hazelnut buyers seen to be switching from Turkey to alternative origins (IHSmarkit)

- High prices driving hazelnut buyers away from Turkey
- Drought raises concerns for production in Italy

- Hazelnut buyers have switched from Turkey to other hazelnut producing countries such as Georgia, Azerbaijan, or Italy, according to a report from news and trading platform Mundus Agri posted on the website of UK company Chelmer Foods. Mundus Agri warned that drought will have a lasting impact on production in Italy.

Big TMO gamble in Turkey
- Mundus Agri added that suppliers in Turkey are waiting for disaster to strike.
- The issue is that although the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) may have only purchased around 131,000 tonnes of in-shells this season, these supplies will eventually have to be sold along with last season’s carry-ins. Due to the upcoming general election in May and the presidential election in June, the government, however, has no interest in lower prices currently.
“The TMO’s full warehouses will become a burden if this year’s crop is good. Prospects are highly encouraging so far as the shrubs are developing well, and there are enough male flowers. The problem, however, is that the weather is too warm. This may spark early blooming and render the crop more vulnerable to sudden frosts in spring,” Mundus Agri added.

- Olivier Telvi of UK trader Ronly Gida Limited, which represents the Turkish hazelnut processor Ronly Gida, observed on Wednesday (25 January) that prices have increased significantly in the past week due to the unseasonably warm weather that is currently hitting the major growing areas on the Black Sea coast.
“This has caused sellers to pull back as they wait to see if an early bloom will come into affect, increasing the chances of frost affecting the 2023 crop. This has caused further problem for buyers who were already trying to adjust to the higher prices after the TMO activity in December caused prices to rise,” Telvi added.
High prices deter buyers

- Mundus Agri’s report of a few days earlier observed that raw hazelnut prices have risen slightly, although the last few days were relatively uneventful.
“This trend is partly driven by exports and Ferrero and Mondelez having purchased more than anticipated. Although the demand is reportedly low, shipments were surprisingly strong in the last week of 2022. Turkey exported 10,626 tonnes of hazelnuts in the week ending on 1 January. This figure dropped to 2,665 tonnes in the week ending on 8 January and recovered again to 5,972 tonnes on 15 January. Exports will have to pick up in the second half of the month, if performance is to remain on track with recent years. January exports exceeded 25,000 tonnes in the last three years. Total exports have climbed to 138,955 tonnes worth $793 million this season so far,” Mundus Agri explained.

- However, the news portal warned that exporters, however, have little chance of attracting buyers currently as prices are simply too high, with suppliers reporting that many customers are turning away.
“Enormous price gaps have prompted European buyers to turn to Italy, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Buyers in China are also waiting for better prices, and many still hold enough stocks in their warehouses. Suppliers are, however, convinced that attention will shift to Turkey again as soon as supplies become more limited in other countries,” Mundus Agri stated.

Drought impacts in Italy
- Prolonged drought in Italy is expected to have a sustained impact on this year’s production in this country.
- On the positive side, sales have been surprisingly good in the current season so far, despite electricity costs doubling and shipping increasing.
- The quality turned out to be quite good, despite peeling being more difficult. The effect of last year’s persistent drought, however, is that male catkins are scarce this year, which will limit pollination. Producers in Piedmont are also highly concerned over the present lack of precipitation. If it fails to rain soon, all their efforts to limit the stress for the shrubs will have been in vain, Mundus Agri stated. They currently expect production to be similar in size to last year.

Jan 26 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With yesterday's intraday high of GBP 1992 and a closing price of GBP 1983 (+7), the second month is slowly making its way back to the 2000 mark. The hardly sensational volume of around 25k lots was distributed, as expected, in the majority on the front Mar/May23 spread (14.5k lots), which once again came under pressure as far as -16, but made up ground for the first time in days (closing GBP 20). However, with some 5.6k lots , Dec 23 ranks 3rd in yesterday's trading volume, i.e. in the period of the upcoming 2023/24 main crop. The structure is holding reasonably steady in the rest of the board as well, although still inverse, and a reversal is still some way off. The open position decreased by 1500 lots in the first month. The grading room also resumed work and granted a BDU fresh Nigeria a new certificate.

Jan 25  - Global pepper market keen to see return of Chinese buyers (IHSmarkit)

- Vietnam inactive for the time being
- Export challenges for Brazil

- The international pepper market has started the new year slowly with buyers waiting for the passing of the Chinese New Year. In addition, Vietnam is closed this week for its annual Tet holiday.

- Albert Berisa of Rotterdam trader Catz International told S&P Global Commodity Insights: “The expectation is that the Chinese would come into the market again because now they have relaxed their strict measures on Covid – the zero Covid policy is no longer there. Normally, that should lead to more activity and also to more demand. Of course the question remains to what extent they are covered and will the impact be huge?” Berisa added that initially the impact will probably not be substantial because it will take some time in China for the situation to normalise. Nevertheless, the possibility of an upturn in raw material demand remains. The other unknown is whether China will purchase just what it needs or whether it will look to build up its stocks of pepper. Berisa explained that there has been a reasonable level of demand in general over these first few weeks of 2023, albeit at a slower pace than previous years at this time. Coverage has been specifically to replenish stocks.

- Kai Jantzen of Hamburg trader Jantzen & Deeke recalled that international pepper prices have declined around 40% over the last 14-15 months. “Now there is kind of a standstill. We expect Vietnam to be back by February and that is when the new crop comes in – from February and March,” he said. Jantzen added there could be selling pressure and a further fall in prices from this point. “It all depends: if suddenly a lot of demand will come in this will also convert into a stronger market, but from the fundamentals we see that enough pepper is available. So for the year, I would guess we do not have much upward risk in pepper,” he said. In addition, freight rates have declined significantly. However, there is still a lot of coverage required from destination markets.

Increased prices on Brazilian pepper

- Prices of Brazilian pepper have edged up with the B1 grade now averaging around $3,000-3,100 per tonne fob versus $2,500-2,600/tonne fob a few weeks ago. An addition of around $225/tonne gives the price on a c&f basis. The price gain of around 20% is despite the fact that Brazilian pepper production is viewed as large, the latest crop being estimated at 100,000-110,000 tonnes. However, Brazil had weather issues in December, particularly in its Espirito Santo region, which was hit by very heavy rainfall and flooding. Some of the larger pepper plantations in this regions have been adversely affected. Some areas are reporting 5% damage, others 10%. Either way, this is a cause for concern and likely to impact the quantities available.

Hampered trade flows from Brazil
“There are also farmers, collectors and exporters that do not want to release pepper which they have on the price levels that we saw before. Also, in their opinion the prices have dropped too heavily, too quickly in a short period of time, mainly caused by the fact that the majority of exporters from Brazil were not able or allowed to export black pepper to Europe because of the whole salmonella issue and the extra measures that were taken whereby they have to undergo an HACCP auditing by the local government in Brazil, called MAPA,” Berisa added. Brazilian pepper exporters can export to Europe only when they have been granted the relevant export licence. Out of the 35-40 pepper exporters in Brazil, so far only five have passed the test to be able to export to Europe. Those that have not been granted the export licence to ship to Europe have had to find alternative markets and they are selling their pepper to the Middle East and North Africa – Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Lebanon, Egypt, Dubai. Because there were so many Brazilian pepper exporters sitting on stocks the supply was quite substantial at the beginning of the 2022-23 season, so around the summer months of last year. Brazil’s Para area harvests its pepper in July and August, accounting for about 30% of the total volume produced in the country. Espirito Santo follows in November, making up the balance of 70%. These sales made the Middle East and North Africa have exerted quite a lot of pressure on the market in a short space of time.

List of defaulters
“The prices of Brazil black pepper dropped from around $4,000 to about $2,500 in just a couple of months time,” Berisa recalled. “Those sales and the pending shipments that went towards those areas were all of a sudden not honoured by the respective buyers because they were not willing to take a loss on their purchases. There were quite a lot of defaults from those areas. Eventually in Brazil they also circulated a default list of 30 buyers in the Middle East and North Africa. Various exporters in Brazil suffered a huge loss because the containers that were on the way were not taken by the buyers and also not paid so they also had to try and take the cargo back or to ship it to some other destination which is hardly possible.”

- The key reason for this latter difficulty is that local customs officials in these alternative destinations typically after 30-45 days confiscate the cargo and sell it to the highest bidder. Berisa estimated that some exporters have made losses of thousands and possibly even millions of dollars on this. “Of course that had a huge impact on the entire scenario,” he added.

- Vietnam pepper prices did not decline any further and remain stable because farmers and exporters in the country do not want to sell below a certain price. Due to the high rate of inflation they prefer to hold on to pepper stocks than have cash in the bank. Vietnam’s 2023 pepper crop is expected to reach around 200,000 tonnes. Harvesting starts next month and will continue to April.
According to trade estimates, Vietnam exported around 180,000 tonnes of pepper in 2022.

- India is harvesting its pepper crop but exports from this origin are negligible as most is consumed locally. Berisa summed up the world pepper market as “steady with a firm undertone, especially from Brazil”. He viewed annual demand as still tracking an average 2% growth rate. In addition, now that chilli prices have moved higher, global pepper demand might rise further this year as there is some shifting between the two spices based on the relative prices.

Keeping up with consumption
- Jantzen observed that production is easily keeping pace with any such gain in consumption and it is uncertain how overall consumption will pan out this year, particularly in view of the massive inflation and hike in interest rates. He suggested it is possible that consumers will cut back on pepper purchases as part of the whole process of reducing spending. One of the most likely outcomes is consumers less frequently eating out in restaurants etc. Moreover, it will be more difficult for global pepper buyers to build a speculative position because they have to calculate interest rates. Jantzen explained that this means the origin prices will more directly impact prices in destination markets because there is no buffer. In addition, he predicted that prices are likely to be relatively flat or possibly easing slightly, meaning there is more downside potential than upside, although he expected the extent of this to be no more than 10%.

Jan 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- A glance at the chart of the London futures market suggests that the (short-term) excursion into lower territory has now come to an end. In the morning, as well as in the afternoon, slight pressure came into the market. Otherwise, the May 23, with a high of GBP 1995, traded back towards the GBP 2000 resistance. Closing May 23 GBP -4 at GBP 1970. The March / May 23 spread also traded weak yesterday, finding support again - for the third day in a row - at GBP +17 and ending the day at GBP +18. So there seems to be increased interest at these levels, suggesting that the last fundamental shorts are now slowly closing their position.

- From the origin, Nigeria reported a drop in exports of over 70% in December. However, this extreme is put into perspective by the fact that the same report last year announced a 190% gain due to the unwinding of pent-up exports at the time.

Jan 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Following on from Friday  late upward momentum, Monday's trade continued on the same path. Closing price for the day in London vs. the 2nd position GBP 1980, a plus of GBP 29 (1.49%). Same picture in NY with trade closing at USD 2633, up USD 39 (+1.50%) vs. 2nd position. London cocoa saw a further flattening of the H23/K23 front-month structure, from GBP +27 to +23.

- The latest arrivals data from Côte d'Ivoire shows that 64,000 mt arrived at ports in the week ending 22 January. Total arrivals for the 22/23 crop season thus stand at 1,480,000 mt, up 7.6% vs previous year.  Thereby being the  third consecutive week that arrivals have been below last year's figure.

- A likely result of the recent appreciation of the Ghanaian Cedi, which will have led to a decline of cross boarder cocoa smuggle.

- Looking at the weather: while light rains in southern Nigeria and the Ivory Coast indicate a normal seasonal pattern for the Harmattan, this also means that only little or no rain is arriving in the main growing areas. Positive for the avoidance of Black Pod and the drying of the main crop. However negative for the development of the midcrop pods for which water is increasingly needed. 

Jan 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With the release of more negative data by the Q4 2022 NCA Grindings, down -8.13% against expected -5%, there was only one way for cocoa to trade at first: downwards. On this, London cocoa broke below its 50-day MA line to trade at a daily low of GBP 1928 before speculators and partly industrial positions picked up the lows to reverse the entire day's losses.  Closing price in London 2nd position GBP 1951, GBP -2. During the day there was a further flattening of the front-month structure H23/K23 currently at +27, K23/N23 +22.

- The latest Commitment of Trader figures as of 17.01 shows an increase in total net positions for Ldn of 14,291lots to 129,639lots. An increase which, in contrast to previous weeks, is not the result of specs/funds purchases but of a withdrawal from short positions by swap dealers: Swap Dealers stating a Net Change from 7,828lots to 23,776 lots between the 10th  to 17th of January. NY Commitment of Traders showing a slight increase of 856 lots. To 40,025 net long over the same time period. 

Jan 20  - Asia Coffee-Trading dull ahead of Lunar New Year in Vietnam; price unchanged in Indonesia (Reuters)

 - Vietnam coffee prices edged up slightly amid sluggish trade ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, while prices remained steady in Indonesia on thin supplies, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans COFVN-DAK at 38,900 dong to 41,100 dong($1.66-$1.75) per kilogramme, slightly up from last week's range of 38,400 dong to 40,100 dong/kg.

March robusta futures on ICE settled up $7, at $1,902 per tonne as of Wednesday’s close.
“Market is dull as farmers have already entered the holiday mood. They have cashed in enough for the past week,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.
“If the prices post-holiday are not attractive enough, bean supplies will be tight as farmers are no longer under pressure to sell.”

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount of $90 per tonne to the May contract.

- Indonesia’ Sumatra robusta coffee bean prices were unchanged from last week, staying at a $130 premium to the March contract, a trader said. Another trader quoted $180 to $190 premium to the February contract, unchanged from a week ago.

Both traders said market activities were still quiet as coffee supplies were still thin. ($1 = 23,445 dong)

Jan 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- On its first trading day after the long weekend, New York failed to make any significant moves. Although the weaker USD brought good support, and gains of US$ 30 were in the book in the meantime, NY closed 4 points down at US$ 2659 May 23; range of just under US$ 50. London was relatively uninspired on the sidelines, and although it tested resistance at GBP 2020 to some extent, it was unable to set any sustainable signs and came under pressure again in the afternoon when GBP gained slightly.

- Thus, the cocoa market is helplessly waiting for input that could help break out of the current sideways movement and clear the 1950/2020 range. There is hope for help from the outside in the form of this week's grinding figures.

- However, Germany is unlikely to be able to do anything here: around 99.5k mt were processed there in Q4 2022, 0.6% less than in Q4 2021. So the focus is on ECA, whose figures are due tomorrow.

Jan 17  - Turkish hazelnut market urged to develop a fair and sustainable system for all involved (IHSmarkit)

-  Prices have been fluctuating in a narrow range
- Exports are being hampered by high prices

- Turkish hazelnut prices were fluctuating in a narrow price band from the beginning of September to the second week of November, trader Murat Aysan recalled in a report posted on LinkedIn this week. Aysan observed that during this period, while some of the market players were talking about a surplus or bumper crop in Turkey and the economic crisis in Europe, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) and the biggest hazelnut buyer bought approximately half of the estimated crop.

- According to officials the TMO bought 150,000 tonnes and it is rumoured that the biggest buyer bought around 250,000-300,000 tonnes of hazelnut.
“When the coming goods from farmers slowed the ugly truth came up. There was a little amount of hazelnut on the farmers’ hands and most of the stock had been collected by the TMO, the biggest buyer and stockers. To make matters worse, the inflation effect came into play. As a result of all of these, hazelnut prices reached all-time high level despite weak foreign demand,” Aysan explained.

- December export figures were announced by the Black Sea Hazelnut Association last Thursday. These revealed that Turkey is still struggling on hazelnut exports. It exported 130,606 tonnes of hazelnuts from the beginning of September to the end of December, 17.5% down from the first four months of the 2021-22 season when it shipped 158,465 tonnes. Export revenue for the 2022-23 period was around $742,010 versus $981,190 in the same period of 2021-22 – a decline of 24.37%. Aysan said this was due to the ongoing economic problems in Europe and to Turkey’s less competitive prices than its alternatives.

- He recalled that last season, particularly in November and December, the Turkish lira had lost its value by 90.71% against the US dollar and euro. “During that time the volatility was so high that the exporters were updating their prices at least two times in a day. In conclusion, the FX (foreign exchange) risks had been passed on to the exporters by the buyers who could have managed to reach an agreement with the sellers,” Aysan noted. However, this year the situation is different, he added. “While the prices are soaring the exchange rates are in range-bound market conditions. Consequently, export prices are soaring as well. When we put together these reasons it is clear that potential buyers prefer Georgian and Azerbaijan hazelnut instead of Turkey’s,” Aysan claimed.

- He suggested that the solution should be to develop a sustainable and fair system for farmers, traders, exporters and even importers and this must be a medium and long-term intention instead of collecting surplus from the market and keeping prices high artificially.
“In addition, it seems to me putting pressure on exchange rates is unsustainable and it is hammering Turkey’s competitive power surely for not only the hazelnut sector but also other sectors. The Turkish lira must be weakened by at least the level of the inflation rate,” Aysan concluded.

Jan 17  - Fall in Vietnamese cashew exports and imports (IHSmarkit)

- 10.3% fall in exports
- 35% fall in imports of raw cashew nuts (RCN)
- Cambodia and Ivory Coast were the main suppliers of RCN

- Vietnamese cashew processors are close to closing factories due to the Tet (Lunar) festival, pushing up the shipment pace to fulfil the January contracts and analysing bonus and gifts for workers, an essential key point to secure a robust domestic consumption during the holiday. Vietnam’s cashew exports closed 2022 with 519,780 tonnes, worth $3.08 billion, 10.3% less year-on-year in volume and 15.1% less in value. Imports of raw cashew nuts (RCN) reached 1.9 million tonnes valued at $2.7 billion, 35% less y/y in volume and 37% down in value. The main suppliers were Cambodia and Ivory Coast, accounting for 37% and 25%, respectively, of the volume.

- Ho Chi Minh City-based supplier Golden Bridge observed that WW240 and WW320 attracted quite good levels of demand, listing the following prices:

    WW240, $2.75/lb
    WW320, $2.55/lb
    Large pieces (LP): $1.70/lb
    Small pieces (SP): $1.10/lb

- Analysis
Vietnam’s industry is reaching its goals of cutting production,
exports and imports although not achieving higher prices. However, prices might increase if Vietnam and Cambodia confirm low crops.

Jan 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With the absence of the big brother in New York (Martin Luther King Day), the London cocoa market unfolded little dynamic. If one may speak of dynamic at all: miserable, not even 11k lots changed hands, the range in the front month of March 23 (GBP 24) and in the 2nd month of May 23 (GBP 17) fit into the picture here. Mainly the weaker USD was probably responsible for the market coming under pressure in the afternoon and shortly above the daily low put an end to the suffering. Closing May23 11 points down exactly on the psychological GBP 2000, resistance for some, support for others.

- Well, it may be that yesterday's reported renewed expansion of the speculative gross long position to an unprecedented 95k lots in London made its contribution. Origin-related hedge pressure does not seem to be responsible in any case. Today, New York is back at it today, and a reaction to the above factors may be expected. As reported, the longs and shorts in New York had each increased their position by 6.5k lots as of Tuesday. Let's see where the journey goes.

Jan 17  - Dry weather and heat could affect Ivory Coast cocoa quality, farmers say
Sparse rainfall and high temperatures observed in some of Ivory Coast's cocoa-growing regions last week could damage beans and flowers and reduce the upcoming April-to-September mid-crop, farmers said on Monday. The world's top cocoa producer is in its dry season, which runs officially from mid-November to March, when rains are poor and scarce.

Jan 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- It may be a little premature, but on Friday the London cocoa market confirmed the basic trend of a sideways movement with slightly higher highs since the beginning of the year, leaving aside the 2 days of an attempted correction. May 23 hit a new high at GBP 2021, then consolidated in the afternoon and ended the day at GBP +11 at GBP 2011. Technically, the ongoing 2nd month still has room to run to the next resistance at GBP 2059.

- The Commitment of Traders figures as of 10.01. confirmed the current trend. The large specs/funds in London increased their gross long position by 5,626 lots to an impressive 92,978 lots.

- In NY there seems to be no clear picture, there the longs increased their position by 6,488 lots and the shorts increased their position by 6,544 lots. London seems to be clearly long, we continue to recommend a look at the New York speculators, who could set the next direction.

- Malaysia opened the round of Q4 2022 grinding figures on Friday, with a staggering 7.7% decline already rumoured to be weak in general. We expect the ECA numbers to be rather unchanged.

Jan 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Yesterday, May 23 again tested the upper end of the current range. The current resistance just below GBP 2020, however, continued to hold. The specs / funds then lost buying interest in the afternoon and hedging pressure from the origin, for the front dates, finally led to a marginal correction. The May 23 ended the day unchanged at GBP 2000 and, if patterns are to be believed, should then test the lower side of the range again today at GBP 1970. Fridays, however, always have a surprise up their sleeve.

- In line with the London market, the US cocoa market traded listlessly and rather narrowly. The US CPI data released in the afternoon, which was exactly in line with expectations of 6.5%, dashed hopes of some volatility in afternoon trading. Closing price NY USD 2655, +10.

Jan 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Since just before Christmas last year, the GBP 2000 level has accompanied us as support / resistance, depending on the mood of the market. Yesterday it was, once again, the latter. May 23 reached highs of GBP 2003 and ended the day, just below, at the aforementioned GBP 2000 / GBP + 22 in May 23. The only noteworthy trade was a large EFS (Exchange for Swaps) trade in March 23 of 15,000 lots. Gross 35,983 lots were traded yesterday. If we take the net volume and exclude AAs / spreads / options etc., the volume was a meagre 267 lots!

- So another day without any significant activity, neither from the origin nor from the industry. In the last COT reporting period, open interest increased by almost 10K lots in LDN and 17k lots in NY.

Jan 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- In almost typical cocoa fashion, Monday's strong start to the week was followed by a weak trading day yesterday. London clearly less dramatic than its big brother in NY. The NY market gave up its significant gains from the previous day ($+82) and ended up with a close of $2615 ($-79)/ May 23, despite the impressive ranges an inside day which once again confirmed the New York uptrend. London joined the weak performance and May 23 ended the day at GBP -31 at GBP 1978.

- The industry continues to be on the sidelines, as it has been for the past weeks / months, waiting for low levels. With average price coverage (futures only) below 6 months, the air is starting to thin.

- The origin shows only restraint with further selling in the market. Who will be the first to twitch, the origin or the industry....and then there are the speculators who continue to dominate the market in the meantime.

Jan 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- While the May23 futures managed to trade above the GBP 2000 level for the first time last Friday, but ultimately lacked the buying interest to close above it, it was to do so on Monday. After Ldn opened slightly lower, it was increased speculative buying in NY that also gave Ldn the impetus to regain the 2000 level and close above. In the end, the closing price was GBP 2009 / +16. A plus of 0.80%.

- The daily gain was clearly in NY. Closing price NY K23 USD 2694 / +82 (+3.1%).

- In Ldn, the March / May 23 spread strengthened slightly on the day, ending the day at GBP 58/56.

- Weekly arrivals in Ivory Coast totalled 87k mt to reach a total of 1.346 million tonnes for the season, up 11.6% vs.  previous season. This included some 44k mt of beans arriving at the port of Abidjan and 43k mt at San Pedro. In parallel, Ghana announced its first purchase figures for the season: 350,000 MT purchases up to 15 December, a strong increase compared to last year when the figures stood at a mere 199,000 MT.

Jan 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Although May 23 reached a new contract high of GBP 2015, the air was quickly blown out last Friday. Hedging pressure from the origin, mainly for the current crop, led to the corresponding correction or rather into the corresponding consolidation mode, and the May 23 slumped to GBP 1990. At the end, a closing price of GBP 1993 / -18 was recorded. The March / May 23 spread continued to be under pressure and ended the week at GBP 55/53. The long-term structure (March 23 / March 24) gave up just under GBP 30 since the beginning of the year, but is still strongly inverse with a premium of GBP +172. This, coupled with very low industry price coverage (just under 6 months), should provide further support.

- Commitment of Traders as of 03.01.23 show a reduction in net long position from 7530 to lots to now 144,942 lots net long. Remarkably, despite the net reduction, the gross long position of the managed money players increased by just over 4K lots in London.

Jan 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After several unsuccessful tests of the resistance at the 2000 level in the past trading days, the breakout to the upside succeeded yesterday afternoon in the 2nd month May23. After a prolonged indecision, where trade buying and origin-related selling pressure kept each other in check, the volume picked up significantly in the afternoon. Focus was particularly on the nearby Mar/May23 spread, which hosts much of the speculative position and came under slight pressure (GBP 59). The GBP provided assistance and brought further support as it weakened against the USD and EUR in the afternoon. On balance, the May23 marked the upper end of the GBP 37 range with a new contract high of GBP 2014 and closed a good bit above the GBP 2000 at GBP 2011 (+27). Technically, there is room to the north, although profit-taking is likely and the markets remain overbought.

Jan 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With exactly half of the previous day's range, yesterday was a typical inside day on the London cocoa market, with dwindling volume. The only noteworthy development was the March / May 23 spread, which weakened further (GBP +63/61), correcting by GBP 20 in 4 trading days. The arbitrage widened yesterday to a discount LDN of GBP 110 / March 23 due to yesterday's firmer NY event (May 23 $ +31 / 2607). The arbitrage for the next crop 23/24 is more divergent, with discounts LDN around GBP 220. Closing price May 23 LDN GBP +5 at GBP 1984.

- In 2 weeks the Q4 2022 grinding figures will be published. Asia starts on 18.1., ECA & NCA follow on 19.1.

Jan 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With a GBP 42 range in May 23 LDN, the year started as volatile as it ended. While the market made a steady effort to consolidate in the first half of the day, the large position shift of speculative longs (especially in NY) weighed heavily on the London market as well. The May 23 corrected, at least temporarily, to a low of GBP 1955, recovered in the afternoon and ended the day at GBP -9 at GBP 1979. The March / May 23 spread also came under pressure and converged to GBP +64, on the low. A new 3 week low. Despite all this, the structure remains clearly inverted, even at the beginning of the year, and should continue to encourage the "longs" to hold the position.

- Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire are at 1.259 mt as of 01.01.23, up 13.7% year-on-year.

Jan 03  - Indonesia to import 3.6 mln T raw sugar, 991,000 T white sugar
Indonesia plans to import 3.6 million tonnes of raw sugar for industrial use and about 991,000 tonnes of white sugar for consumers, its trade minister said on Monday. Zulkifli Hasan did not provide a time frame for the imports.

Jan 03  - No rain in Ivory Coast's cocoa regions, Harmattan increases  - farmers
No rain fell last week in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa regions and a strong seasonal dry wind in central regions raised fears over the quality and the size of the April-to-September mid-crop, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is in its dry season, which runs from around mid-November to March, when rains are poor and scarce.

Jan 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With a gain of just under 1%, the cocoa market in London, like its big brother in New York, said goodbye to 2022 and emphasized its claim to the 2000 mark base May 23 with a high of GBP 1990. The second month closed just below at GBP 1988, thus 18 points up. The full year gain in 2022 thus reaches around 15%.

- Some of this should be related to the GBP's loss against the USD, if not the main driver of London's performance in 2022 - the UK currency lost around 10% against the USD in 2022.

- The main activity on Friday was attracted by the front Mar23 with 14k lots traded out of a rather meager 21k lots. The structure remained unchanged - inverse - and should therefore continue to provide fertile ground for speculative longs.

Dec 30  - Brazilian and Paraguayan sesame seed exports clearly behind last year’s (IHSmarkit)

- 36% fall in Brazilian exports
- Mexico, a key importer

- Brazil’s sesame exports between January-November 2022 reached 25,370 tonnes, 36% less year-on-year, worth $49.9 million, 25% less y/y. The main importers were Turkey and Mexico, accounting for 31% and 27%, respectively, of the volume.

- Paraguayan exports fell by 45% y/y to 18,620 tonnes and by 32% in value to $34.2 million in January-November 2022. Japan and Mexico were the main importers, accounting for 37% and 31%, respectively, of the volume.

Analysis
Brazil is set to close 2022 with huge carry-over stocks of sesame seeds as their exports have been clearly behind initial estimates in 2021 and 2022, which relied on the trade agreement between the former and India. The South American country has signed another trade agreement with China, which includes soybeans, peanuts and sesame seeds. However, the Asian market is only willing to import Brazilian sesame seeds at prices similar to the African origins.

Dec 30  - Turkish hazelnut prices stabilised (IHSmarkit)

- TMO is not selling its stocks
- Euro loses strength against US dollar

- The Turkish hazelnut market is currently very quiet with prices stabilised since the last week, although the lira exchange value has fallen against the US dollar, according to Rotterdam broker QFN in its latest market update (28 December 2022). The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) is not currently selling its stocks. 

- The Euro became slightly weaker against the US dollar but strengthened against the Turkish Lira compared to last week. Currencies (compared with last week’s market update from QFN Trading) in the week ending on 28 December (compared with the previous week):
    Euro-US dollar 1.0640, -0.04%. The euro became weaker against the US dollar
    US dollar-Turkish lira 18.7178, +0.27%. The US dollar became stronger against the Turkish lira
    Euro-Turkish lira: 19.8967, +0.23%. The euro became weaker against the Turkish lira

- QFN gave the following current price indications for 2022 crop hazelnuts (class 1) on a per 100 kilos, delivered Europe (DAP) basis:
    Roasted diced 2-4mm, $710 in 10kg vacuum cartons (€678)
    Roasted diced 5-7mm, $720 in 10kg vacuum cartons (€687)
    Roasted diced 8-12mm, $730 in 10kg vacuum cartons (€696)
    S.r. blanched 11-13mm <10% skin, $770 in 10kg vacuum cartons (€734)
    S.r. blanched 12-14mm <10% skin, $790 in 10kg vacuum cartons (€743)
    S.r. blanched 12-14mm <5% skin, $795 in 10kg vacuum cartons (€748)
    NHK 11-13mm, $670 in 10kg cartons (€626) 
    NHK 13-15mm, $695 in 10kg cartons (€654) 

- For shipments per container, cfr EMP: deduction $6/100 kg (subject to final destination port). Surcharge for extra class: $10/100 kg. Dispatch December/January onwards.

Dec 30  - Asia Coffee-Vietnam, Indonesia prices steady amid quiet trade (Reuters)

- Coffee prices in Vietnam and Indonesia stayed steady this week as trading activity slowed due to the holiday season. Farmers in Vietnam's Central Highlands, its largest coffee-growing area, sold beans at 40,000 dong-41,000 dong ($1.69-$1.73) per kilogramme, slightly up from 39,900 dong-40,600 dong a week ago.
“Farmers have harvested around 85% of the 2022-23 crop, and they are expected to increase their sales over the coming weeks to have cash for the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday,” a trader based in Dak Lak province said.

- Traders said 2022-23 output is expected to fall to 1.75 million tonnes from 1.8 million tonnes in the previous crop. Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount of $80-$90 per tonne to the May contract, unchanged from last week. March robusta futures on ICE fell $6 to $1,869 per tonne on Wednesday.

- Coffee exports from Vietnam are estimated to have increased 10.1% in 2022 to 1.72 million tonnes, equal to 28.7 million 60kg (130 lb) bags, government data released on Thursday showed. Its coffee shipments in December are estimated at 140,000 tonnes, down 17.2% from a year ago.

- In Indonesia, Sumatran robusta beans for the January contract were offered at $100 premium, unchanged from last week. Another trader offered $140 to $150 premium to the January and February contracts, flat from a week ago.

Both the traders said coffee trading activities were quiet. ($1 = 23,635 dong)

Dec 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- On yesterday's penultimate trading day of 2022, the speculative longs allowed themselves a break. The initial fortification was quickly corrected due to a lack of buying interest from the managed money fraction. Within half an hour, prices lost over GBP 30 before incipient buy orders slowed the slide. The 2nd month marked a low of GBP 1961, around GBP 40 below the opening, and still closed GBP 29 down at GBP 1970.

- The question asked yesterday about the long capacity of the specs has not yet been answered, but perhaps yesterday's move was an initial indicator. Today, a counter move due to profit taking by the speculative longs looking to close the year/quarter are not unlikely. Let's see who fires the first rocket.

Dec 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Resistance still holds at GBP 2000 in the 2nd month May 23, although yesterday new highs were marked above. May 22 closed at GBP 1999 (+14), on the highs of mid-November.

- This current support is essentially the product of the following factors: The market is largely driven by speculative buying interest of funds, which are expanding their long position in London. In addition, there is hardly any significant hedge pressure at the moment, since physical buyers are scarce.

- The GBP has been weakening for several days, providing additional support. The obvious question now is how large the long capacity of the funds actually still is, and whether the bubble will burst at some point soon. Good question. The inverse structure keeps the managed money longs happy and discourages physical buyers. Meanwhile, yesterday's original announcements have shown no effect so far.

Dec 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- While Londoners were still sleeping it off and New York was left to its own devices, we received some news from the Ivory Coast. First, the GEPEX grinding figures for November were reported at 55,248 metric tons, an increase of just over 5% compared to the same month last year, but a decrease from the previous month. Still, the bottom line for the crop year to date is a 7% increase.

- Arrivals are reported at 112,000 mt for the week ending on Dec 25 vs. 80,000 mt in the corresponding week last year. Overall, a buffer of 150,000 mt is expected to be available in IVC for damage control in Ghana.

- Trading in New York was unexciting as expected, though not even too sluggish for a solo session. In the evening, a gain of US$ 3 in the 2nd month and still 28,000 contracts turnover and a new high was recorded. Today, both markets are trading at the usual times.

Dec 27  - Record Indian cumin seed prices (IHSmarkit)

- 24% fall in exports
- Futures prices for deliveries from March-April 2023 cross the INR23,000/quintal level

- Indian cumin seed spot and futures prices have reached records, being around INR30,000/quintal ($362.4/quintal) after being stabilised at around INR23,000/quintal. Indian cumin seed spot prices averaged INR29,140 per quintal ($352.0/quintal) at the Unjha market (Gujarat, North-West) on 27 December 2022, 21% more month-on-month and 81% more y/y.

- Cumin seed exports reached 165,280 tonnes valued at $426.7 million in January-October 2022, 24% less y/y in volume and 2% less in value, according to customs data. China and Bangladesh were the main importers of whole cumin seeds (95% of the exported volume), accounting for 24% and 19%, respectively.

- India’s 2022-23 cumin seed production is expected to rise by 33% year-on-year to 316,000 tonnes, after falling by 9% between 2021-22 and 2020-21 seasons, due to the combination of drought and falling acreage after prices hit the rock-bottom in 2021. The updated daily futures market price on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) was:

    Deliveries in December 2022 closed at NR28,515 quintal on 20 December, 15% more m/m
    INR29,865/quintal for deliveries in January 2023 on 26 December, 22% more m/m
    INR30,990/quintal for deliveries in March 2023 on 26 December, 22% more m/m
    INR30,650/quintal for deliveries in April 2023 on 26 December, 25% more m/m

- Analysis : Prices were stabilised in November due to initial 2022-23 production estimates. However, rumours about a low planted acreage in Gujarat, the main origin, and low carry-over stocks have encouraged speculative bets. The 2023 prices will have a clear trend from February onwards, as initial shipments confirm the harvested volume.

Dec 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- As a Christmas gift to its loyal entourage, the London cocoa market had thought of something special and pulled new highs out of the hat in the second month of Mar 23. These were with GBP 1988 Mar 23 once again a little bit closer to the psychological GBP 2000 than on the previous day. These, or the highs of mid-November at GBP 1998 now move within reach and should mark the next resistance level.

- Otherwise, the market was quiet. In the absence of new fundamental news, the structure and technical regularities remain the main drivers of market movement for now.

- London remains closed today, recovering from the Christmas hustle and bustle.

- New York trades from 12.30h UK time. Wednesday through Friday, normal trading hours apply on both markets.

Dec 23  - Asia Coffee-Sluggish trading in Vietnam, Indonesia ahead of holidays (Reuters)

 - Coffee trade was sluggish in Vietnam on thin demand, while Indonesia remained quiet due to low stockpiles, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans  at 39,900 dong to 40,600 dong ($1.69-$1.72) per kg, down from last week's range of 40,000 dong to 41,700 dong.
“Demand is not very high now. Beans have started to come, but not so abundant as many traders are now on holidays,” said a trader based in the coffee belt, adding that farmers are more or less done harvesting their crops.

- Traders said farmers were seeking to sell beans for the upcoming long holiday. At the same time, they looked forward to higher prices. According to a biannual report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released this week, Vietnam was seen harvesting a crop of 30.2 million bags, down 1.4 million from the prior season on reduced yields. Fertiliser prices in Vietnam had risen as much as 70% in the last year, the USDA noted.

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount of $80 to $90 per tonne to the May contract, unchanged from last week.

- March robusta futures on ICE settled up $11 at $1,879 per tonne on Wednesday.

- Sumatran robusta beans for the January contract were offered at $100 premium in Indonesia’s Lampung province, unchanged from last week. Another trader offered $140 to $150 premium to the January and February contracts, compared with $140 premium last week. Both the traders said coffee trading activities were pretty quiet.

Dec 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The last full trading day before the Christmas weekend showed that cocoa is far from being in holiday mode. This was evident in the afternoon as the market woke up and headed towards the highs of 6 weeks ago.

- The battered British pound supported here to the best of its ability, the arbitrage ran away from home (Mar/Mar GBP116). With about half of the 42k lots traded, the front Mar/May23 spread showed to be the focus of buying interest and put a new high of +79 under the Christmas tree, which in retrospect looks kind of familiar. However, numerous price hedges from original covers slowed down the activism. The bottom line was a gain of GBP 38 in Mar23 (closing GBP 1974). The chart technicians see upward air to the already mentioned highs of November just below GBP 2000, which would mean a classic double top.

Dec 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A weakening British pound again provided support to the market yesterday. The May 23 broke through the upper end of the range that has lasted since mid-November, with a high of GBP 1934. The March / May 23 spread briefly traded at its high yesterday (GBP +78), found good resistance there and ended the day unchanged at GBP +76/74.

- Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire are at 1.066 mt as of 18.12, +12%.

- In Ghana, producer price inflation reached 78.1% last November.

Dec 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With further dwindling volumes, the market did not bring any new insights yesterday either. The only positive news for the "chartists" among us was that yesterday's high of GBP 1922 finally closed the upside gap between GBP 1915-1909 that had opened up after the turn of the month. After that, calm and an almost contemplative mood returned. The May 23 ended the day at GBP +12 at GBP 1914, trading at the upper end of the range that has existed since mid-November.

- As a stopgap, here are the opening hours of the stock exchanges over the holidays: 23.12. London closes 13:23h / NY open, 26.12. holiday, 27.12. London closed / NY opens 13:30h, 28.-30.12. normal. 02.01. both markets remain closed.

Dec 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With just over 10,000 lots gross turnover (net just under 7,200 lots), it was a quiet start to the week. Since the Dec 22 went off the board last week, the market continues to be in consolidation mode. The May 23 term has been trading in a narrow GBP 25 range since 13.12, as a new 2nd month. Closing price yesterday May 23 GBP +9 at GBP 1902.

- Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire are now, as of last weekend, a good 10% above last year. News from Ghana dominated the headlines yesterday. The Ministry of Finance announced yesterday that it would suspend payments on foreign government debt (about US$ 22.8 billion) until further notice.

Dec 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With a GBP 1883/1908 range and a GBP -9 close at GBP 1893 / May 23, it was a subdued end to the week on the London cocoa market. The March / May 23 continues to find good support from speculators and ended the day at GBP 74/72, still a weekly gain of GBP 19.

- There was a little more life in New York on Friday. The May 23 broke the upward trend that had been in place since October, closing down $42/$2480.

- It seems that the industry has entered an early Christmas holiday, and speculators continue to dominate the day's trading. The "ping pong" of the Managed Money Specs in NY is significant in this respect. They changed their position from almost 4,000 lots short to 3,681 lots long. Net, across all categories, a long position of 141,359 is now held.

- We wish you a good start into the "short" Christmas week, London closes on Friday early at 13:23.

Dec 16  - Asia Coffee-Major Asian coffee markets see subdued trade this week on low stocks (Reuters)

 - Vietnamese coffee markets were subdued this week, with bulk supplies not reaching traders as beans were still in the drying process, while Indonesia was muted as harvest season ended in the country, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans COFVN-DAK at 40,000 dong to 41,700 dong($1.70-$1.77) per kg, little changed from last week's 40,100 dong to 42,000 dong range.
“Beans are still in the drying process and it may take a month for them to fully dry,” a trader based in the coffee belt said.
“Farmers are under selling pressure before the holiday season to cash in but beans are not ready yet.” Farmers have already harvested 90% of their crop, traders said. Another trader from the region said the market was quiet as, there was not much supply and buyers were not really keen.

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount range of $80 to $90 per tonne to the May contract, compared with the $70 to $80 discount last week.

- For the first 11 months of 2022, Vietnam exported 1.58 million tonnes of coffee, up 12.9% from a year earlier, Vietnam Customs said. Coffee export revenue for that period reached $3.6 billion, it said.

- Sumatran robusta beans were offered at $100 premium to the January contract in Indonesia’s Lampung province, unchanged from last week.
“Coffee prices this week are unchanged since trade is already pretty quiet. There were no activities and things may only improve in the new year,” a trader said.
- Another trader offered $140 premium to the January and February contracts, up from last week’s $120 premium but noting very few activities taking place. ($1 = 23,505 dong)

Dec 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With a high yesterday of GBP 1909, the May 23 just missed closing the month-end gap at GBP 1915. The May 23 ended the day at GBP +17 at GBP 1902. The near March / May 23 structure extended yesterday to GBP +74, correspondingly near the highs of GBP +78.

- The Fed, as well as the BoE and the ECB, raised their key interest rates by 50 bps yesterday. The British pound weakened accordingly and also provided support yesterday.

- Hardly any new fundamental news reached us from the origin.

Dec 15  - US almond shipments lagging behind year ago levels (IHSmarkit)

- Total shipments 4.28% behind
- Volumes declined to western Europe and northeast Asia
- Total supply 2.4% higher than same stage of 2021

- Californian almond shipments have continued to run slightly behind those of a year ago. The fourth position report for the 2022/23 season from the Almond Board of California (ABC) showed that volumes sold overseas this November amounted to 142.69 million lbs compared with 155.9 mln lbs in the same month of 2021. This brought export volumes for the first four months (August-November) of the 2022/23 season to 591.23 million lbs, 3.4% down from the 612.1 million lbs reached in the same period a year ago.

- Domestic volumes last month were at 61.59 million lbs against 65 million lbs in November 2021, helping to push domestic sales for the first four months of 2022/23 to 244.35 million lbs from 260.87 million lbs in the same stage of 2021/22 – a decline of 6.3% .As a result, year to date total shipments were at 835.59 million lbs from 872.98 million lbs a year ago – a fall of 4.28%.

- Richard Waycott, president and chief executive of the ABC, observed that in the domestic market, the continued weakness versus year-to-date (YTD) 2021/2022 is in manufactured product.
“Shelled almonds are holding their own. On the export side YTD, shelled product is ahead of last year and manufactured product is only slightly lower. In-shell is where the considerable difference is, down about 60 million lbs in the first four months of data. Northeast Asia continues to record lacklustre shipments versus last year whereas the Middle East and North Africa continue to have a banner year, up 31% and 202%, respectively. Western Europe gave a weaker performance for the month and as a region now trails last year by 4%,” he added.

- Waycott also noted that total committed (i.e. sold but not delivered) shipments are currently 8.22% below last year. The ABC report showed that total committed shipments were at 691.15 million lbs versus 753.05 million lbs in November 2021. Total supply this year was listed at 2.94 billion lbs, 2.4% up from the 2.87 billion lbs at the same stage of 2021.

- Dutch broker Global Trading & Agency commented that almonds remain a very attractively priced nut and this is not expected to change any time soon.
“Sellers remain reluctant to sell far forward (after March/April) as they first want to get the first 2023 crop indication during bloom (end of February) as well as more certainty on the water supply,” the firm added.

- Global Trading feels that carry-over plus 2022 crop should give more than enough almonds for this season but also for next season and that prices will stabilise around current levels unless something unpredictable were to happen on the 2023 crop.

Dec 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With a GBP 13 range (1881/1894) it was a cautious start for May 23 as the new 2nd month. Of note is the still large existing gap of GBP 30 at the close of LDN. Here we recommend a look at our chart of the 2nd consecutive month. Technically, this should be closed soon. The March / May 23 spread widened yesterday to GBP +66, in the close of GBP 66/64 only GBP 14 away from the high (GBP +74). The clearly inverse structure continues to make speculators in LDN cling to their long position, and even a further firm British pound can do little to help. Just under 83k lots changed hands on Dec 22, which expired on Tuesday.

- The largest intake of stock  cocoa since March 2019!

- Inflation in Ghana reached 50.3% at the end of November. How this will affect future cocoa production is still unclear. Smuggling from Ghana to Côte d'Ivoire (where the farmgate price is a good $400 higher than in Ghana) is likely to be further driven by this.

Dec 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The short-term move out of the current range came to a quick end yesterday. Supported by buying from the nearby March / May 23 spread, which also recouped its losses from the previous day, the March 23 traded to a high of GBP 1960 yesterday. Closing March 23 GBP +20 at GBP 1951. The May 23, new 2nd month, ended the day GBP +9 at GBP 1890. The jolt upwards in London was held back by good price fixing from the origin, as well as a firm British pound.

- The US$ lost about 1.5% yesterday due to the release of the US CPI. The CPI rose by only 0.1% in November compared to the previous month (an increase of 0.3% was expected). YoY now stands at an increase of 7.1%.

- The Ghanaian government and the IMF have agreed on a US$ 3 billion loan over a three-year period to provide much-needed aid to the inflation-stricken country.

Dec 13  - Indian spot turmeric prices stabilised (IHSmarkit)

- Traders are forecasting a price level over INR7,500/quintal for the new crop
- Minimum support price has been set at INR6,850/quintal

- The Indian spot fob unpolished turmeric price averaged INR6,930/quintal ($84.0/quintal) at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, South Central) on 12 December, 2% less month-on-month and 12% less year-on-year. The polished product price averaged INR7,300/quintal, 2% less m/m and 11% less y/y.

- The country’s global sales reached 125,000 tonnes, 9% more y/y, worth $165.2 million, in January-September 2022, 8% more y/y in value. The main importers were Bangladesh, the UAE and Morocco, taking 18%, 11% and 7%, respectively, of the volume.

- The updated daily futures market prices on NCDEX were:
    Deliveries in November closed at INR7,558/quintal on 18 November, 1% more m/m
    INR7,046/quintal for deliveries in December on 9 December, 6% less m/m

Analysis
- Traders are forecasting prices above the INR7,000/quintal level for the 2022-23 season, once the Indian government has set the minimum support price (MSP) at INR6,850/quintal.

Dec 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- A weak opening of just over GBP 20, caused a breakout from the range that has persisted since mid-November (see chart). The March 23 term found good support from the industry towards GBP 1910 (yesterday's low GBP 1915) and recovered tentatively in the afternoon. March 23 closed GBP -11 at GBP 1931. The March / May 23 spread weakened to a premium of GBP 51 yesterday, a new 5-week low. The, admittedly low, volume of 2024 dates is likely to be another indicator of price cover from the industry. Next support would be (again) GBP 1910 (trend line) and GBP 1900. Dec 22 goes off the board at noon today, leaving an open position of just under 9,000 lots.

- It remains to be seen how much cocoa will actually change hands. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire are at 838,000 mt as of 11.12, an increase of 10% vs. the previous year.

Dec 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With a range of GBP 58 / March 23 LDN, one day was enough not only to show the weekly range, but also to test the respective important resistance and support points. Hedge pressure from the origin at GBP 2000 (high GBP 1998), as well as industry price hedges at the lows (GBP 1940) alternated accordingly. The March / May 23 spread gave up GBP 16 of its premium / close GPB +55/53. At the end of the day, the March 23 lost GBP 36, close GBP 1942. On a weekly basis, London lost 1.8% and NY 1.5%. The New York market still has about $30 of downside air to sustainably break the short-term uptrend.

- Commitment of Traders as of 06.12 show a reduction in managed money longs in London of 7,051 lots. In NY, specs added 3,466 new longs to their books and shed 4,131 lots from their short position. In total, therefore, the change was balanced (+260).

Dec 09  - Asia Coffee-Vietnam output could fall by 20%, Indonesia trade subdued (Reuters)

 - Vietnam’s coffee output is expected to drop by a fifth in the current crop year as extended rains, lower levels of nutrition have hit the quality of beans, while trade was thin in Indonesia on low supply, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans at 40,100 dong to 42,000 dong ($1.69-$1.77) per kg, compared with last week's 40,000 dong to 40,800 dong.
“Farmers have harvested most of their crop and the outcome is not very promising. Output is going to be 20% lower than previously forecast,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.
“Rains in November hindered cherry picking and processing in some parts while some trees were malnourished as fertilizer prices were high due to supply chain disruption and the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict,” the trader added.

- According to a Reuters poll, Vietnam was forecast to have a crop of 30 million bags of 60 kg each in 2022/23, slightly below the prior season. Another trader said trade activities were tepid as buyers and sellers could not reach a deal on prices.

- A trader offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount range of $70 to $80 per tonne to the May contract. Last week, beans were offered at $60 to $70 discount to the March contract.

- In Indonesia’s Lampung province, Sumatran robusta beans were offered at a premium of $100 to the January contract, up from last week’s $80 premium due to depleted stock, but trade was thin.
“There were barely any trades because stock is getting low. Activities may improve from the beginning of next year,” one trader said.
Another trader offered $120 premium to the January and February contract, up from $50 to $80 premium range last week. ($1 = 23,780 dong)

Dec 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- A general restraint seemed to dominate also yesterday, at least in London, where only pitiful volume with not even 17k lots came about. Here, actually only the specs ventured outside the door, and made a few Christmas purchases on the Mar 23 position, while short covering was largely absent. The Dec/Mar 23 spread consequently weakened slightly and lost 12 points, now at GBP 164. This was more or less meaningless for the structure. The buying helped the 2nd month move a little further towards the psychological resistance at GBP 2000, closing Mar 23 at GBP 1978, + 23. The Dec 23 sale ends on 12/13, but the open position decreased by not even 1000 lots and amounts still to 10.8k lots. Owners have another 2.5 days to get out of the position to avoid physical delivery. Let's get ready for a volatile finish.

Dec 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Trade for Ldn cocoa was fairly uneventful on the day, as traders seem to be waiting for the December22 contract to move off the board before exercising their next strategy. With 4 trading days remaining, December has an open interest of 11808 lots after another 1056 lots closed during Wednesdays trading. It remains to be seen if the Z/H spread can be maintained at GBP +176. After another attempt to reach the technical support point at GBP 1940, the March 23 position held its strength and closed at GBP 1955 with a daily gain of GBP +7. New York also lacked any major movement. Trading within a price range of around USD 30 for the day, NY H23 close with a gain of USD 5 at USD 2492.

Dec 07  - International vanilla bean market viewed as very confusing (IHSmarkit)

- Bulk of supply is stuck in Madagascar
- Local offering prices in Madagascar are much lower than the minimum export price

- Leading sources in the vanilla bean market sum up the current situation as very confusing. The key factor is that there is plenty of supply but most of it is stuck in Madagascar.

- Last year's Madagascar vanilla bean crop was between 2,500-2,700 tonnes cured which is considered a bumper crop. The Madagascar government implemented a vanilla bean export ban this June as it has in the last few years to improve the quality. Normally, it then lifts the export ban on 15 September. However, this year it did not do so until 15 November.

- Douglas Daugherty, president of the Vanilla Corporation of America, told S&P Global Commodity Insights: “Since 15 November, the Madagascar government and the National Council of Vanilla (CNV) have only allowed one sea shipment of vanilla beans to leave the country. All other vanilla bean exports have been stopped. Prior to the export ban this year there were at least 700 tonnes of unsold carry-over stocks in Madagascar from past vanilla bean crops. This year's Madagascar vanilla bean crop should produce at least 2,000 tonnes cured.” Hence, Daugherty observed there are more than enough vanilla beans in Madagascar to meet global demand. However, by stopping the export of vanilla beans from the country, the Madagascar government and the CNV are trying to squeeze the flavour industry into accepting the Madagascar government's mandated minimum vanilla bean export price of $250.00/kg.

- One European trader said there are stocks but no demand. “Prices are high and the macro economy in consuming countries does not help,” he remarked.

- Daugherty added: “Local offering prices for vanilla beans in Madagascar are much lower than the minimum export price, but there is almost no market. It is a ‘Mexican standoff’ between the Madagascar government/CNV and the international flavour industry. Who know how long this can continue?” . He observed that all the other vanilla bean producing countries are taking advantage of the situation in Madagascar and are increasing their vanilla vine plantings and production.

Dec 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With no clear direction, Tuesdays trade can only be labeled as a further day of consolidation in the market. Trading within a price range of GBP 21, the market lacked volume and a clear price direction without major speculative interest and only minor industry buying. Closing level GBP -1 at GBP 1948, firmly above the next technical support point at GBP 1940. The near Z/H spread continues to hold its strength, closing at GBP +169, while the March 23 / May 23 slightly narrowed to GBP +59. NY close the day vs. March23 at USD 2487, a plus of USD 8.

- In times of financial crisis, Ghana's parliament narrowly approved the 2023 budget and revenue strategy in hopes of improvement next year.

- At EU level, the EU yesterday approved a new legislation that could ban importers linked to deforestation from importing their goods into the EU. It is not yet clear when this law will come into force.

Dec 07  - Cashew nut kernel market showing improvement (IHSmarkit)

- Buyers taking coverage for 2023
- Prices show rebound in Vietnam

- The cashew nut kernels market is picking up slightly, European nut brokers and traders report. Dutch broker Global Trading & Agency observed in its latest market report that prices increased by $0.05 per lb on whole cashew kernels. “A reason for this is the higher RCN (raw cashew nut) prices but also more and more buyers realise that today’s levels are very attractive and are covering requirements for 2023,” the company observed. Stocks are gradually reducing in the EU and US and it is hoped that consumers will pick up interest as well during the holidays (Thanksgiving and Christmas). The market seems to be at a low point so Global Trading’s recommendation remains to be covered for 2023 as far out as possible

- The company quoted the following prices basis fca Alblasserdam, the Netherlands, subject unsold and final confirmation:-

    700 cartons Vietnamese cashew nut kernels WW240 at $2.85 per lb
    700 cartons Burkina Faso cashew nut kernels W450, organic certified at $2.75/lb
    700 cartons Guinea Bissau cashew nut kernels WW450, organic certified at $2.85/lb

- Ho Chi Minh City-based supplier Golden Bridge observed that the Vietnam cashew market passed November with a slight rebound. After six months of only moving down and sideways, the market recognized a recovery of $0.1/lb and was trading around $2.55-2.65/lb for WW320. The main reasons indicated that prices of cashew shells dropped sharply, while RCNs stayed at high levels so factories had to reduce much of their capacity and did not accept offering low prices.

- On the buying side, there was more activity from those in the US, EU and China and low prices were confirmed quickly. The WW180 grade in particular is generating strong so its prices were pushed much higher. Golden Bridge recalled that the Vietnam cashew market finished 2021 with a reduction. Compared with current prices now, there is a big gap of $0.3/lb and with the tough situation mentioned, the firm expects to be stable and possibly increasing more this month.

- Vietnam’s imports of RCNs declined 26.95% this October to 127,620 tonnes. Its seasonal (January-October) RCN imports were 34.38% down at 1,882,013 tonnes. Vietnam’s October 2022 RCN imports from Ivory Coast declined 32.86% this October to 65,258 tonnes while its January-October volumes from this destination were 29.54% lower at 500,888 tonnes. Vietnam’s RCN imports from Cambodia fell 44.3% last month to 3,821 tonnes and by 39.2% in the first 10 months of 2022 to 665,333 tonnes. Its RCN imports from other markets dropped 17% last month to 58,540 tonnes and by 32.6% over January-October 2022 at 715,792 tonnes.


Dec 07  - Turkish hazelnut prices for export reach peak for 2022 crop (IHSmarkit)

- Local prices gain a further 5%
- Slight weakening in Turkish lira failed to counterbalance rise in local prices

--Turkish hazelnut prices are still increasing but are now expected to have firmed up.

- Dennis Havelaar, junior broker at QFN Trading & Agency noted that local prices rose by an additional 5% from those of last week from TRY100 ($5.36) per kilo to about TRY105/kg (and even a rise of 6.7% within two weeks, coming from TRY98/kg).
”Even though the Turkish lira became slightly weaker against the US dollar and euro, it cannot counterbalance the rise in local prices. Prices for export are now at the highest level of this year’s crop so far,” Havelaar added. He noted that the euro became slightly stronger against the US dollar and the Turkish lira compared with last week.

- QFN Trading gave the following current price indications for 2022 crop hazelnuts (class 1) on a per 100 kilo, delivered Europe (DAP) basis:-

    Roasted meal 0-2mm $635 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro €608)
    Roasted diced 2-4mm $665 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro €636)
    Roasted diced 5-7mm $675 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €646)
    Roasted diced 8-12mm $685 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €655)
    S.r. blanched 11-13mm <10% skin $715 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €684)
    S.r. blanched 12-14mm <10% skin $720 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €689)
    S.r. blanched 12-14mm <5% skin $725 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €694)
    NHK 11-13mm $630 in 10 kg cartons (indication in euro: €603)
    NHK 13-15mm $645 in 10 kg cartons (indication in euro: €617)

For shipments per container, cfr EMP: deduction $6/100 kg (subject to final destination port).
Surcharge for extra class: $10/100 kg.
Dispatch December 2022 onwards.

Dec 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The negative tone from last Friday continued yesterday, promptly after the open. The March 23 traded to lows of GBP 1942, where it found good buying interest from the industry. Closing GBP -22 at GBP 1949, at the lower end of the range that has persisted since mid-late November. A week before the last trading day of the Dec 22 position (13.12), the near spread eased temporarily to "only" GBP +155, closing GBP +172/170. The March 23 / May 23 spread now lost almost GBP 13 within a week and continues to trade firm at GBP +64, however. A relaxation in the structure could start next week.

- Arrivals in the Ivory Coast continue to catch up strongly. Having already exceeded the previous year for the first time last week, they now stand at 838,000mt as of 04.12 (+6.1% year-on-year).

Dec 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The continued strength of sterling put further pressure on the market during the day and March 23 broke out of the weekly range, at least temporarily.

- At GBP 1950, the 2 month hit the low for the week, but recovered in the late afternoon to end the day at GBP -9 at GBP 1971. New York was slightly positive and there the March 23 ended the day at $ +17 at $ 2536. To close the week, London recorded a slight loss of 0.7%, NY a gain of 2%. Since the expiry of the Dec 22 options, open interest in Dec 22 has been reduced by 35,000 lots, it remains to be seen how much cocoa will now change hands on Dec 13.

- With a change in the net long position of 2,230 lots (now 133,331 lots net long), the latest Commitment of Traders figures as of 29.11. bring little new insight.

Dec 02  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- India’s 2022-23 cumin seed production projected to increase by 33% y/y
- 14% y/y increase in Indian sesame seed exports revenues in January-September 2022
- Fall in Chinese dehydrated garlic and Indian dehydrated onion prices

Production
- India’s 2022-23 cumin seed production is expected to rise by 33% year-on-year to 316,000 tonnes, after falling by 9% between 2021-22 and 2020-21 seasons, due to the combination of drought and falling acreage after prices hit the rock-bottom in 2021.
- Chinese processors have produced 80,000 tonnes of dehydrated garlic flakes once the fresh crop has finished, trading sources estimating that 300,000 tonnes of carry-over stocks may match the global demand.
- India’s autumn sesame seed crop is estimated at 165,000 tonnes, down from the initial forecast of around 260,000 tonnes, due to heatwaves and severe drought.
- Brazil’s 2022 honey production is expected to reach a record of 60,000 tonnes, 7% more y/y, thanks to abundant rains favouring a robust flowering. The 2021 crop reached another record of 55,800 tonnes (+34.8% y/y) due to abundant rains also. 

Demand
- Strong Indian demand for cloves and nutmeg is pushing up their international prices, particularly in Sri Lanka and Madagascar.
- On 28 November, the European Parliament’s Agriculture Committee (AGRI) exchanged views with the European Commission about the situation in the European garlic sector. MEPs raised the alarm over possible fraud with garlic imported into the EU, claiming that the product is sold frozen instead of fresh to avoid higher import duties. This was of particular concern for Spanish MEPs, as Spain is the largest garlic producer in Europe, accounting for two-thirds of EU production.

Trade
- India’s cumin seed exports reached 152,850 tonnes valued at $392.3 million in January-September 2022, 26% less y/y in volume and 5% less in value. China and Bangladesh were the main importers of whole cumin seeds (95% of the exported volume), accounting for 24% and 19%, respectively.
- Indian sesame seed exports were 189,080 tonnes, worth $333.7 million, in January-September 2022, stagnant y/y in volume and 14% more in value. The main importers of sesame were South Korea, China and the US, which took 20%, 8% and 7% of the volume, respectively.

Prices
- Indian cumin seed spot prices averaged INR24,027 per quintal ($293.9/quintal) at the Unjha market (Gujarat, North-West) on 28 November 2022, stagnant m/m and 65.4% more y/y.
- India’s new sesame seed (whitish) spot price averaged INR17,000/quintal ($208.1/quintal) on 29 November 2022, at the Unjha wholesale market (Gujarat, North East), 24% more month-on-month and 42% more y/y.

S&P Global Commodity Insights quoted the following Chinese cfr Europe prices for the 2023 production, in the week ending on 30 November:

    First grade granules, $2,300/tonne (-8% m/m and -28% y/y)
    Grade A, flakes, $3,900/tonne (-5% m/m and -8% y/y)
    Powder, $2,050/tonne (-7% m/m and -32% y/y)
    Top grade granules, $4,000/tonne (-5% m/m and -8% y/y)

Indian dehydrated onion prices in November 2022 were listed as it follows below:

    Kibbled, $2,560/tonne fob (-5.6% month-on-month and -6.1% y/y)
    Minced, $3,350/tonne (+3.1% m/m and +20% y/y)
    Powder, $2,290/tonne (-8.4% m/m and -5% y/y)

Dec 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Under the influence of a revived British pound (due to positive news from the ranks of local retail) and hedge pressure from origin cover, the London market weakened yesterday, especially in the afternoon and lost 18 points in the end. Thus, the 2nd month Mar22 closed at GBP 1980 and continues to struggle to break the resistance at GBP 2000. The Dec22/Mar23 spread is also struggling, in finding significant selling interest.

- After the Dec22 option contracts expired, open interest dropped by a handsome 26k lots and the spread folded another 28 points apart to GBP 169.

- 8 days before the Dec 22 contract expiration (Dec 13), only one BDU Nigeria passed the quality test in the grading room. We hear from IVC that tax incentives for local processing will be discontinued before the end of the current crop, at least for existing factories.

Dec 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- On the last trading day of the month, London showed its volatile side. The market came under pressure right at the beginning due to price hedges against origin cover and lost a good 23 points to a low of GBP 1971 (Mar23). Here, good buying interest was found, which wiped out all losses and logged an almost unchanged close (GBP 1998; +4). Again, a little closer to the GBP 2000 psychological resistance. Volume was good; 47k lots changed hands, also fueled by the expiration of the Dec22 option. Setting the tone was of course the Dec/Mar spread, which temporarily contracted to GBP 106, but in the end ran out a little further to a new high (GBP 141).

- The origin reports that bean exports in October were 67% behind the previous year (among other things probably due to strikes), exports of cocoa products, however, increased by 10.5%.

Nov 30  - Gradual increase in Indian sesame seed prices (IHSmarkit)

- Bullish trend in futures prices for deliveries in January-February 2023
- South Korea to launch a new tender

- India’s new sesame seed (whitish) spot price averaged INR17,000/quintal ($208.1/quintal) on 29 November 2022, at the Unjha wholesale market (Gujarat, North East), 24% more month-on-month and 42% more year-on-year. After several months with stabilised prices as the harvest was in full swing, the domestic crop may be behind the previous season and, as a result, cannot offset the bullish price trend of African sesame seeds. Trading sources projects an Indian autumn crop of 165,000 tonnes, down from the initial forecast of around 260,000 tonnes, due to heatwaves and severe drought.

- South Korea has launched a new tender to import around 6,000 tonnes of sesame seeds, deciding suppliers on 30 November 2022. Prices paid in this auction will set a clear trend in December. Indian exports were 189,080 tonnes, worth $333.7 million, in January-September 2022, stagnant y/y in volume and 14% more in value. The main importers of sesame were South Korea, China and the US, which took 20%, 8% and 7% of the volume, respectively.

- Imports reached 15,540 tonnes in January-September 2022, 18% less y/y. The main suppliers were Sudan and Nigeria, which accounted for 84% and 3%, respectively.

Nov 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With Dec 22 options expiring today in London and large strike levels above GBP 2100, activity (like the day before yesterday) focused on the Dec 22 expiration, as well as the near Dec/March 23. The spread widened to GBP +139 and the flat price hit another new contract high at GBP 2132. At least until noon today and the allocation of options tomorrow, there is unlikely to be any significant change in the short-term trend.

- The "rest" of the party (or Board) ended the day almost unchanged. The March 23 looked just above GBP 2000 resistance with a high of GBP 2003. March 23 closed GBP +2 at GBP 1994.

- Mixed news came from the origin. While arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire picked up significantly, October exports from Nigeria were a good 20% below the previous year.

Nov 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- New day, same game. With all eyes on the firm Dec 22 / Mar 23 spread, which widened to new highs of GBP +125 yesterday, the first position fortified further. The Dec 22 is hitting a new contract high of GBP 2118 (close GBP +28 / 2116). Buyers of the near spread (whether fundamental or speculative) have a hard time rolling their position with the low selling interest. March 23 moved along at a more leisurely pace and ended the day at GBP +7 at GBP 1992, GBP 2000 should provide short term resistance here.

- Tomorrow at noon the Dec 22 options expire in London, with strike prices clustered around GBP 2100, this level should be defended by the specs / funds in the short term.

- Commitment of Traders Report as of 22.11 show expansion of Managed Money short position in NY by 9,749 lots (Correct: in the 2 weeks before this very position was reduced by almost 45k lots). London almost unchanged. Net, across all categories, both markets still sit on a comfortable long position of 131,101 lots (-1440).

- Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire are at 718,000mt as of 27.11, up year-on-year for the first time (+1.1%).

Nov 28  - Mozambique starts the cashew season projecting a slight increase in production (IHSmarkit)

- 2% increase in the 2022-23 production estimated
- Gradual recovery in sea shipping services between Mozambique and India, China and Vietnam

- Mozambique’s 2022-23 cashew production is expected to reach 150,000 tonnes, 2% more year-on-year, the general manager of the processing section of Mozambique’s Institute of Nuts (IAM-IP), Lucia Antonio, explained during a virtual meeting held on 17 November just before the official start of the cashew season (23 November). Mozambique was the largest African origin until 1975, when the civil war after the independence from Portugal halted the industry, starting gradually to recover from the 2000s.

- Mozambique is combining the development of emerging cashew and macadamia industries through IAM-IP, taking advantage of frequent sea shipping services between East Africa and India, Vietnam and China. Antonio explained that sea shipping frequencies are gradually recovering, although they are still behind pre-Covid levels.

- Mozambique’s 2021-22 exports of raw cashew nuts reached 53,000 tonnes, India and Vietnam being the key importers with 73% and 27%, respectively, of the volume. Meanwhile, Mozambique’s international sales of processed cashews reached 8,000 tonnes, becoming the fourth largest exporter after Vietnam, Ivory Coast and India.
Macadamias

- Macadamia growing was developed initially by South African investors, who took the in-shells to process them in South Africa and export them to China, taking advantage of the trade agreement between them. IAM-IP aims to encourage an expansion in the macadamia acreage and export in-shells and kernels directly through Mozambican ports.

Nov 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The break on Thursday mentioned in the Friday report had only a short duration. On Friday, all eyes were on the near Dec 22 / Mar 23 spread. In good volume, it gained almost GBP 30 and traded in triple digits for the first time at GBP +104, triggered here (once again) by covering against the short position. The other dates (here especially 23/24) hardly moved and the long-term structure also strengthened further.

- The plays in the front pair also allowed the March / March arbitrage to now converge GBP -62 LDN discount, a weekly change of GBP +43; some market participants see this also running at premium, which could lead to a build-up in the stock market. The March 23 ended the day at GBP +26 at GBP 1985, thus at the upper end of the GBP 1945/1994 weekly range.

- Due to Thanksgiving, the Commitment of Traders figures from NY will not come until today.

Nov 25 - Asia Coffee-Vietnam's discounts steady, rain may hit supplies (Reuters)

 - Supplies of new coffee beans from Vietnam’s Central Highlands have slowed down, as scattered rain in the area disrupted cherry picking and drying process, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans COFVN-DAK at 39,200-40,200 dong ($1.58-$1.62) per kg, slightly lower than 38,900-40,100 dong range a week ago.
“Rainfall has delayed the cherry-picking process in some areas the Central Highlands, raising concerns over supply in the next few weeks,” said a trader based in the Central Highlands province of Dak Lak.

- Another trader also based in the coffee belt said it rained only 1-2 days and the weather now has improved a lot.
“Rains in such short period will unlikely affect the bean’s quality,” the trader said, adding that farmers have already harvested 38-40% of their crop.

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount range of $60-$70 per tonne to the March contract, unchanged from last week. January robusta futures on ICE settled down $20, or 1% on Wednesday, at $1,814 per tonne.

- Supplies of Sumatran robusta in Indonesia’s Lampung province remained thin, with some local exporters offering $190-$200 premiums to the January and February contract, one trader said. Although lower than last week’s $230 premium, the offer was still notably higher compared to $100-$110 premiums offered by foreign exporters, the trader said. Another trader offered an unchanged $50 premium to the January contract.
“Trade is thin because there were very few new beans coming in to Bandar Lampung this week,” the trader said. ($1 = 24,835 dong)

Nov 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- While turkey was on the table in the US, the London market joined the sluggishness and holiday spirit and took a day off. The March 23 traded in a narrow GBP 23 range, with just shy of 6,000 lots net. Closing firmer at GBP +13 at GBP 1959.

- However, there was no time for recovery in the grading room in London. A BDU Nigeria was accepted and 2 more BDU's (origin still unknown) and 110 SDU's lined up yesterday and will be sampled today.
- With today's semi-holiday in the US, increased activity will probably only start next week.

Nov 24  - Turkish hazelnut prices starting to increase (IHSmarkit)

- Local prices boosted by higher demand from Europe
- Trade sources expect higher prices to continue
- Some sellers are still withdrawn from the market

- Turkish hazelnut prices seem to be on the rise, Dutch broker QFN Trading & Agency noted in a report on 23 November. Dennis Havelaar, junior broker at QFN Trading said: “We are seeing higher prices today (compared to last week) and further rises are expected.” Havelaar explained that local prices have increased due to increased demand from Europe. “Some sellers are still withdrawn from the market, awaiting the prices to be higher. The prices for this (2022) crop of hazelnuts have been lower than the previous season, until last week,” he added. From week 46 onwards prices are higher compared with those of last year’s crop, Havelaar noted.

- The investigation of Ferrero is ongoing and also keeps the market on hold.

- The euro became slightly weaker against the US dollar and the Turkish lira compared with last week.

- Olivier Telvi of UK trader Ronly Limited, which represents Turkish hazelnut processor Ronly Gida, commented: “This month we have seen the market continue to firm despite very low demand and a seemingly healthy crop situations. The main reason seems to be the purchasing activity of Ferrero and TMO (the Turkish Grain Board) which has kept the market from following for the whole of the Q4 2022 period. Looking forward the picture looks unclear. While most traditional market indicators would suggest the prices should come down dramatically, it looks as if the TMO activity will continue to keep prices high. Unless TMO changes path it looks like higher prices look certain to continue to hold.”

- QFN Trading gave the following current price indications for 2022 crop hazelnuts (class 1) on a per 100 kilo, delivered Europe (DAP) basis:-

    Roasted meal 0-2mm $620 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro €557)
    Roasted diced 2-4mm $635 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro €581)
    Roasted diced 5-7mm $645 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €591)
    Roasted diced 8-12mm $655 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €601)
    S.r. blanched 11-13mm <10% skin $685 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €639)
    S.r. blanched 12-14mm <10% skin $685 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €639)
    S.r. blanched 12-14mm <5% skin $690 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €645)
    NHK 11-13mm $600 in 10 kg cartons (indication in euro: €548)
    NHK 13-15mm $610 in 10 kg cartons (indication in euro: €548)

For shipments per container, cfr EMP: deduction $6/100 kg (subject to final destination port).
Surcharge for extra class: $10/100 kg.
Dispatch December 2022 onwards.

24 Nov  - Sharp fall in Iranian saffron exports (IHSmarkit)

- 41.3% fall in exports in January-September 2022
- Main importers: the UAE and Spain

- Iran’s saffron exports fell by 41.3% year-on-year in volume to 113.8 tonnes but rose by 18.0% to $116.3 million in January-September 2022, as the 2021-22 crop halved y/y to 160 tonnes, cutting supply availability and pushing up prices. The main importers were the UAE and Spain, accounting for 40% and 23%, respectively, of the volume.

- There is no available Iranian saffron export data from May-January 2019 and in 2020. However, 2021-22 data unveils how the gradual fall in production is affecting the global industry, where Iran is the main supplier with around 90% of the total supply.

- The 2020-21 crop reached a record of around 330 tonnes, falling in the following season due to heatwaves and severe drought despite the planted area expansion. The 2022-23 crop may be between 200-300 tonnes as dry conditions continue to hit the average yield.

Nov 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With no great news/rumours from the origin, the London market surrendered to the firm British pound yesterday. The March 23 traded in a GBP 1939-1961 range, ending the day weak at GBP -19 at GBP 1946.

- What stood out was that the dates for the 23/24 crop have now shone with a little more volume. Hedging pressure against covers from the origin? At least there was scattered industry interest in price hedging, 2024 dates peaked below the GBP 1800 mark.

- The LDN / NY arbitrage continued to tighten yesterday. The Dec / Dec arbitrage traded at GBP +30 yesterday, on the First Notice Day of the Dec 22 NY term. The March / March 23 arbitrage only traded at GBP -75 LDN discount, this one nudged up by GBP 90 in just under 2 weeks.

- New York remains closed today for Thanksgiving.

Nov 23  - Spanish conventional almonds and pistachios are cutting price difference with organic (IHSmarkit)

- Organic Larnaka pistachios are only 75 cents/kilo up from conventional
- Conventional Marcona almond average price 11.1% higher than organic

- Spanish conventional almonds and pistachios are shortening price differences with organic in a trend where organic sales are totally halted, with Spanish organic processors and growers selling with discounts to clear out stocks.
- Spanish conventional and organic almond prices are listed below, according to data from Albacete wholesale market (Castile-La Mancha, south-centre) on 10 November 2022:

    Kerman, 18-20. Conventional: €7.8/kg (7.5% more m/m, when quotation started) / Organic: €8.5/kg (+3% m//m)
    Kerman kernels. Conventional: €10/kg (stagnant m/m) / Organic: €12.75/kg (stagnant m/m)
    Larnaka kernels. Conventional: €12.25/kg (+32.4 more m/m) / Organic: €13/kg (stagnant m/m)

- Spanish almond prices are listed below, according to Reus (Catalonia, north-east) wholesale market on 14 November:

    Comuna (conventional): €3.5/kg (stagnant m/m and -1.4% y/y)
    Largueta (conventional): €5.1/kg (stagnant m/m and -2% y/y)
    Marcona (conventional): €6.9/kg (stagnant m/m and +2.9% y/y)
    Organic: €6.2/kg (-8.8% m/m and -19.4% y/y)

Analysis
- Spanish organic nut supply has been gradually growing in recent years, almonds particularly. Many farmers with non-irrigated plantations have been turning to the organic industry, as their yield is very far from the conventional and the price difference was between 30-40% until the previous season. Meanwhile, pistachio acreage is growing gradually although many orchards have no irrigation, favouring growers to plan organic production since they plan to invest in developing new plantations.
- Conventional sales are slowed as processors are worried about falling consumption due to inflation, which is hitting products considered as premium as nuts against basic grocery, cutting purchases for almond-based products. Meanwhile, many pistachio farmers are selling directly in the conventional market as the price difference with the organic is minimum and they aim to secure sales for the Christmas campaign in the EU.
- Spanish crops have fallen in two consecutive seasons, and, in a traditional scenario, prices might be bullish. However, processors are keeping an eye on market trends as they are worried about falling sales, looking for alternatives to offset inflation consequences.

Nov 23  - Weak demand for Thai dried tropical fruit due to high transport and production costs (IHSmarkit)

- US dollar exchange at the core of rising costs
- Ginger at low prices

- The Thai dehydrated and dried fruit industry is working in full swing and has reached pre-Covid levels, once the Covid-19 work restrictions have finished, although the international demand is weak due to rising prices and production costs, mainly led by the strength of the US dollar against other currencies, according to Dutch broker QFN Trading & Agency in its latest market update. In addition, there is a shortage of fresh tropical fruit, particularly papaya, as many farmers turned to more profitable crops such as gums and palm.

    Papaya: the main crop season for pineapple started this October and will conclude in December. QFN explained that the production has halved year-on-year as heavy rains have hit plantations in northern origins. Average quality is low.
    Pineapple: the harvest started in October and will finish in December. The crop is lower than in the same period in 2021 although prices are stabilised as demand is weak. The canneries started to process this November.
    Mango: There is a small mango crop (October-November) with dehydrated without cane sugar added or natural at high prices. 
    Ginger: falling prices for ginger thanks to a bumper crop.
    Cantaloupe. Supply is still tight with high prices. Price may fall or stabilise when the new crop is shipped from March 2023 onwards.
    Apple: the first containers of the new crop’s raw material arrived with a good quality. “We do not expect to face any shortages until the next crop is being shipped from October-November 2023,” QFN stated
    Orange and mandarin: Thai processors are still negotiating prices for raw material with Chinese suppliers.

Nov 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After it initially looked like a continuation of the previous day's upward movement at the opening, the market lost 30 points a short time later, which set the tone for the rest of the day: Up and down in a range of about GBP 20 with rather weak volume. The forward positions from May 24 onwards were not traded at all. Close 2nd month March 23 GBP 1965 (-14).

- On the one hand, the cable certainly provides insight into this: Yesterday's fixing of the GBPUSD corresponded almost exactly to the countermovement on the futures market.

- Furthermore, the low trading interest could be due to the more or less nebulous reports from the origin of the CCC in Côte d'Ivoire and the Ghanaian Cocobod, according to which first players are said to have complied with the demand to pay the required prices.

- At the same time the shorts leave the front spread , so the Dec22/Mar23 gets slight support here. Some cocoa is graded and could probably be tendered at the expiration of the Dec23 contract in mid-December. Yesterday alone, 1 BDU and 120 SDUs were pending, another 80 SDUs are already in the pipeline.

Nov 22  - Sharp rise in guar gum prices due to disappointing seed harvest (IHSmarkit)

- 41% m/m increase in spot prices 
- 19% growth in exports
- 21-33% increase in futures prices for deliveries from December 2022-April 2023

- Indian guar gum prices have experienced a turning point after being cooled in recent months, as initial guar seed deliveries confirm a disappointing harvest and Chinese orders have strongly risen to meet demand from its oil extraction industry. Guar seed prices started a rally this October, being followed by gum once the processors cleared out their seed stocks. Most traders bet on a strong recovery of the Chinese oil drilling industry when the Covid-19 restrictions conclude.

- India’s guar gum spot price averaged INR12,994 ($159.3) per quintal at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 21 November 2022, 41% more month-on-month and 9.7% more year-on-year.

- Indian guar gum exports rose by 19.2% y/y to 186,420 tonnes, valued at $348.93 million in January-September 2022, 20.9% more. The US (54,490 tonnes, +18.8% y/y), Russia (26,660 tonnes, +9.8% y/y) and Germany (23,400 tonnes, +15.0% y/y) were the main importers, accounting for 29%, 14% and 13% (volume), respectively.

Nov 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After trading slightly weaker in the morning and testing the GBP 1950 support level several times, a midday strengthening in GBP was the catalyst for the market to find support to spur fresh speculative long buying. The March 23 ended the day at GBP +26 at GBP 1979, up 1.31%. - Currency wise, NY carried the difference to close USD -3 at USD 2453 against the March position. Further support for the London market is likely to come from the Ldn/NY arbitrage development.

- As of yesterday's close, Z/Z was trading negative for the first time in a long while at GBP -33, while H/H continued to converge downwards to GBP 93. Any further convergence is likely to be supportive leading to fresh bean deliveries to  Ldn vs NY.  

- Other news of the day was a joint statement by Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire that a panel of country and buyer representatives would be established to determine the best course of action to support prices in the long term. This announcement came after the deadline for the CCC and Cocobod to ask buyers to pay the LID plus a positive country differential or face harsh penalties such as restricted access to farms and cancellation of sustainability programmes. There was no mention of enforcement.

Nov 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- For the third day in a row, the March 23 consolidated at current levels. With little activity, the 2 month traded in a GBP 1925/1957 range, cautious buying interest emerged towards the end, and the March 23 ended the day near the highs, at GBP +6 at GBP 1953. The Dec 22/ March 23 spread continues to hold firm at a premium of GBP +64. The Dec / Dec 22 arbitrage continued to converge, trading at only GBP -6 discount.

- Commitment of Traders as of 15.11. show, as expected, a further massive reduction of speculative shorts in NY. In the last reporting period this amounted to 21600 lots, so the Managed Money Funds reduced their position by almost 45k lots in 2 weeks. This in combination with a smaller reduction of the longs (-2284 lots) was enough to change the position from short to a small speculative long position (5202 lots). Net, both markets are on a long position of 132,541 lots. Interestingly, the fundamental shorts increased, mainly in London, by a good 14k lots.

- All this at a time when the origin has not been in the market with pre-sales (?).

Nov 18  - Asia Coffee-Vietnam local prices fall, Indonesia premiums rise (Reuters)

 - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell due to global cues and new harvest supplies, while premiums in Indonesia edged up further on tightening supplies, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans at 38,900 dong-40,100 dong ($1.57-$1.62) per kilogram, down from last week's 39,700 dong-41,300 dong range.

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount range of $60-$70 per tonne to the March contract, unchanged from last week.
“Beans have started to come but not many as they are undergoing drying process,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.
“Buyers and sellers now cannot agree on the prices. While sellers asked for $60-$70 discount, buyers quoted a discount of $100,” the trader added.

- January robusta futures on ICE settled down $12, or 1% on Wednesday, at $1,780, the lowest level since late-August 2021, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.
- Indonesia’s Sumatran robusta coffee beans were offered at a premium of $50 per tonne to the January contract this week, up from the $40 premium last week, one trader said, as coffee supplies dwindled. Another trader said there was a huge gap between prices offered by local and foreign exporters.
Foreign exporters offered $110 premium to January, February, and March contracts while local ones quoted $230 premium to the January and February contracts, up from the $210 premium last week to the December and January contracts.” the trader said. ($1 = 24,810 dong)

Nov 18  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- Sharp decline in Iranian pistachio output
- US almond shipments 3% down in first three months of 2022-23 season
- Strong global demand for prunes

Production

- Iran’s 2022-23 pistachio production is estimated at 105,000 tonnes, 23% less year-on-year, due to the combination of an off-year, frosts and severe drought. Carry-over stocks totalled 15,000 tonnes.
- Mexico’s 2022-23 pecan crop might be lower than expected (initially projected at around 320 million lbs) as summer rains have not lifted average yield.
- Harvesting of the US peanut crop is very close to completion in most of the key growing states.
- California’s 2022 prune crop is expected to reach 62,000 tonnes according to a recent estimate at the online International Prune Association Conference, which was hosted from Australia. The California Prune Board believes the actual range could be from 62,000-66,000 tonnes.

Demand
- Demand for US almonds is marginally lower so far this season (see Trade below) although there is no major cause for alarm in this regard.
- Initial offtake for new crop Iranian pistachios has also caused some disappointment (see Trade below). This has been attributed to its much higher prices than the US.
- It is rumoured that the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) will slowly decrease the amount of hazelnuts it is buying, and that it will stop purchasing by the end of the year. The TMO (together with Ferrero) is purchasing a substantial volume of Turkish hazelnuts but demand in the free/export market has continued to be slow.
- Strong world demand for prunes is said to be outpacing production and hence world prune supply is viewed as remaining tight.

Trade
- Californian almond shipments were 3% down for the first three months (August-October) of the 2022-23 season.
- Californian walnut shipments reached 68.49 million pounds this October, 10% less year-on-year, bringing seasonal sales (September-October) to 104.8 million lbs, 4% less y/y.
- Iran exported 5,880 tonnes of pistachios this October, a record low for its first month of the new season, down from 16,760 tonnes in October 2021.

Price
- Iranian pistachio prices this October averaged $9/kilo for in-shells and $17/kilo for kernels, Tehran-based Green Diamond Tree observed.
- These are some of QFN Trading’s current price indications for 2022 crop hazelnuts (class 1) on a per 100 kilo, delivered Europe (DAP) basis:-

    Roasted meal 0-2mm $580 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro €557)
    Roasted diced 2-4mm $605x in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro €581)
    Roasted diced 5-7mm $615 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €591)
    Roasted diced 8-12mm $625 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €601)

For shipments per container, cfr EMP: deduction $6/100 kg (subject to final destination port). Surcharge for extra class: $10/100 kg.

Nov 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After a flat opening across the board, Thursday's trading seemed to have lost its upward momentum and traded slightly lower during the day. A major downward move was avoided by GBP weakness following the release of the UK Autumn Budget. The March 23 ended the day GBP -8 at GBP 1947 and while Ldn ended the day -0.41% lower, it was NY Cocoa that carried the weight of the currency movement. Here, March 23 ended the day down USD -55 at USD 2447 (-2.19%).

- The most important news of the day was a letter circulated by the IVC vehemently refuting the claims of a Bloomberg report that the CCC and CMC had sold beans with a negative origin differential of -75 to -100 GBP. They are strictly sticking to their position of not selling beans below a 0 GBP Origin differential.

- Sunday's 20th deadline for 23/24 big industry buying remains unchanged as far as we hear. We eagerly await the latest updates on Monday.

Nov 18  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- 10% y/y fall in the Vietnamese pepper crop
- Cambodia reaches agreement to export pepper to China
- 5% m/m increase in Indian (unpolished) turmeric wholesale prices

Production
- Vietnam’s pepper production is gradually falling, following a drop in hectarage. The 2022 output reached 175,000 tonnes, 10% less year-on-year and 40% less than in 2019, when it reached a record of 290,000 tonnes.
- The 2022 Madagascar cloves crop is expected to range from 12,000-14,000 tonnes, stagnant y/y.
- Honey and natural gums are drivers of growth in the Mexican organic industry. There were 3,335 beekeepers whose beehives were certified as organic in 2021, 23% more year-on-year, according to the Mexican government. Meanwhile, the natural gum area reached 1.8 million hectares in 2021, stagnant y/y.

Demand
- The use of honey in new US food proposals fell by 9% year-on-year to 1,207, within 40,583 food proposals (+1% y/y) in 2021, according to a survey conducted by the US National Honey Board (NHB) and Innova Market Insights. Traditional sweeteners such as honey, sugar and maple syrup are competing against alternatives such as sucralose and acesulfame K. Cereals and snacks were the drivers of the fall for honey, whose launches dropped by 33% and 8%, respectively.

Trade
- Vietnamese and Brazilian pepper exports rose strongly this October, although year-to-date (January-October) shipments are still behind 2021. Vietnam’s pepper exports in January-October 2022 fell by 16% y/y in volume to 192,076 tonnes but rose by 6% in value to $836.9 million. The US, India and the UAE were the main importers, accounting for 25%, 7% and 6%, respectively, of the total volume. Brazilian international sales of pepper in the same period (January-October 2022) fell by 3% y/y to 69,580 tonnes in volume and by 17% in value to $261.8 million. Vietnam, the UAE and Morocco were the main importers, accounting for 21%, 11% and 8%, respectively, of the volume.
- Cambodia and China have signed a phytosanitary agreement to export pepper from the former to the latter on 9 November.
- India’s turmeric exports reached 111,050 tonnes, 9% more y/y, worth $148.3 million, in January-August 2022, 11% more y/y in value. The main importers were Bangladesh, the UAE and Morocco, taking 17%, 12% and 7%, respectively, of the volume.

Prices
- The Indian spot fob unpolished turmeric price averaged INR7,102/quintal ($88.1/quintal) at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, South Central) on 14 November, 5% more month-on-month and 1% less year-on-year. The polished product price averaged INR7,482/quintal, 4% more m/m and stagnant y/y.

Nov 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- In theory, it would have been enough to look at the first and last few minutes of the market yesterday. The March 23 opened at GBP 1955 (coinciding with yesterday's close), quickly made a range of GBP 1940/1955, only to bottom a few (3) minutes later at GBP 1926...then nothing (nothing at all) happened until just before the close and the market moved sideways in a GBP 1935/1949 range. The market then firmed slightly towards the end and the March 23 ended the day at GBP +2 at GBP 1955, on much more moderate volume.

- Towards the end of the day, in tandem with the slight firming, information came through one of the known news channels that the CCC was now (a few days before the deadline) selling beans again at a discount (US$ 75-100). An official statement is missing, as well as for which period (middle or main crop).

Nov 16  - Madagascar cloves market is bullish at local level (IHSmarkit)

- Smaller 2022 crop is forecast
- Indian buyers are reluctant to cover at the moment

- The 2022 Madagascar cloves crop is expected to range from 12,000-14,000 tonnes according to the Madagascar Clove Exporters Association which recently held its first meeting since the Covid-19 pandemic. French trader Aromatum noted that the southern areas will not have any quantities, because of the two cyclones which damaged these areas in February. A part of the northern area (Antongil bay and Sava) will have a small crop, perhaps around 30% of that of last year. Only the Tamatave and Fenerive areas will have a better crop than last year, Aromatum stated. Gregoire Courme of Aromatum added: “Nevertheless, we have to wait a little bit to get the confirmation of the ‘official’ figures, on top of which we have to add the carry-over of the last crop estimated from 4,000 to 6,000 tonnes.”

- Courme noted that the local market is bullish. “Some shippers, who hold stocks, are paying high prices, and are averaging their cost prices with their stocks from the previous harvest. They are convinced that the US dollar will continue to rise against the Malagasy currency. Collection levels have increased by 20% since the end of September.”

- Aromatum expects the market to stabilise above $8,400 per tonne cfr Europe. “We do not think it will fall quickly, as some Asian and Middle Eastern traders have been claiming that the market price should decrease,” Courme added.

Comoros
- Comoros is still the cheapest origin with its price below €7,800 ($8,083) per tonne cfr Europe. Unfortunately the shipment times are far too long, Courme noted. Only CMA CGM is reaching Europe in a minimum of 80 days. Moreover, the shipment schedule is uncertain because feeder vessels are touching Comoros every two-three weeks only. The lack of available containers is also a major issue. Currently, the shipment time is at least six weeks from date of order. This means that European importers might expect goods from the Comoros within four-five to months whereas it might take less than 60 days from Madagascar.

Tanzania
Small quantities are available from Tanzania. The price is similar to that of Madagascar but also with small issues on the freight. Exporters have to wait at least two months to get space on a vessel. The current shipment time is from 45-60 days to Europe.

Indonesia
Although Indonesian, kretek cigarette manufacturers are buying a small volume from Africa, they are mainly buying previous crop materials from their local market. As cloves are well dried they are making savings, instead of using fresh cloves. This explains why the new Indonesian clove crop is decreasing.

India
Buyers are currently quiet. “They are reluctant because of the weakness of the Indian rupee against US dollar, during the previous weeks. They are hoping prices will drop from Madagascar. Some traders are manipulating the market, by publishing articles in Indian newspapers, forecasting a market level at $6,000/tonne cfr for the end of the year,” Courme explained.

Europe
In Europe, stocks seem low. “Most of the buyers who were expecting Comoros cloves for Christmas are disappointed by shipment delays. Until the Malagasy crop becomes available, prices for spot material will remain firm,” Courme added.
Waiting for the go ahead

- Currently, Aromatum is not able to make firm offers of Madagascar cloves because the country’s government has banned cloves exports since October 31, until it publishes the new list of exporters. Aromatum expects to receive that list this week, noting that last year the publication of the list was delayed by one month.

Nov 16  - Vietnamese and Brazilian pepper exports at a strong pace this October (IHSmarkit)

- 6% increase in Vietnamese revenues
- Vietnam was the main importer of Brazilian pepper

- Vietnamese and Brazilian pepper exports rose strongly this October, although year-to-date (January-October) shipments are still behind 2021.

- Vietnam’s pepper exports in January-October 2022 fell by 16% year-on-year in volume to 192,076 tonnes but rose by 6% in value to $836.9 million. The US, India and the UAE were the main importers, accounting for 25%, 7% and 6%, respectively, of the total volume.

- Brazilian international sales of pepper in the same period (January-October 2022) fell by 3% y/y to 69,580 tonnes in volume and by 17% in value to $261.8 million.

- Vietnam, the UAE and Morocco were the main importers, accounting for 21%, 11% and 8%, respectively, of the volume.

Analysis
- Vietnamese and Brazilian international sales increased at a strong pace this October, international sales in January-October being close to mirroring those in the same period in 2021. Brazilian and Vietnamese exporters are clearing out stocks when harvesting in Para (north Brazil) has finished and the 2022-23 harvest is around the corner. As a result, both origins cut prices. Brazilian black pepper fell by 5% year-on-year to $3,690/tonne cif NW Europe for grade 1 this October. Meanwhile, Vietnamese black pepper averaged $3,843/tonne, 4% less m/m; white pepper was at $5,724/tonne, 9% less m/m. Price might be stabilised or fall until Q1 2023.

Nov 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Completely unimpressed by the firm British pound, the cocoa market rallied in the morning (or was it just the short-lived correction of the correction?).

- Supported by isolated industrial interest and the absence of origin, the 2nd term traded at highs of GBP 2001 and only met isolated resistance there. The turnaround followed in the afternoon and the day ended with a close of GBP 1953 / GBP -10, close to the lows of GBP 1951.

- Unimpressed by yesterday's volatility, the March / May 23 spread also showed itself, reaching a new high of GBP +64. As speculative longs continue to close (at least in part) in the forward term, speculative interest will increasingly turn to dates in 2023.

- Inflation in the UK reached a new 41 year high of 11.1%. Grading continued briskly yesterday, with 51 SDU's under the knife.

Nov 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- At the moment it seems the cocoa market is only living in the momentum or is sliding from one extreme to the other. The March 23 LDN continued to correct yesterday, found good support at GBP at GBP 1940, recovered at the close and ended the day at GBP -8 at GBP 1963, just below yesterday's highs of GBP 1969.

- After hours, the Commitment of Commitment of Traders figures as of 08.11 were released yesterday. While London, managed money longs increased by 11,460 lots, shorts in NY decreased by an impressive 23,175 lots. Looking at the last reporting period period 01-08.11 no surprise but a clear repositioning of the funds.

- Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire are slowly catching up and are as of 13.11 only 12% below the previous year. Gepex reported an increase of 8.6% in local local grindingby 8.6% in October. The strike by dockworkers in San Pedro ended yesterday.

Nov 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Within 24 hours and a 4% strengthening of the British pound vs. the US$, the cocoa market made another impressive reversal.

- In anticipation of the London COT figures (the NY figures follow today), the "newer" longs sought their respective way out. The March 23 lost GBP 66 at the peak and traded to lows of GBP 1966.

- Ended the day weak at GBP -61 at GBP 1971, with no significant industry activity on Friday afternoon. A long overdue push on the reset button which brought us back to levels of the previous week.

- NY-March lost only US$37 / close US$ 2518 and ended the week up 4%, unlike London. The COT figures as of 08.11 from LDN show expansion of managed money longs by 11,460 lots. After Thursday / Friday certainly overdue once again...

Nov 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- While March 23 London climbed to new highs of GBP 2059 in the morning, the upward movement came to an end for the time being. The release of the US Consumer Price Index weighed heavily on the US$, which of course also affected the cocoa market.

- London March 23 corrected by almost GBP 40 to lows of GBP 2015, recovered at the end and ended the day with GBP -20 at GBP 2032.

- The New York market was correspondingly firmer with US$ + 25 at $2555 at the close, where the "shorts" continue to have a difficult game.

- Open interest in London increased by 5853 lots the day before yesterday, confirming the build-up of new speculative longs, as well as fundamental shorts in the near term...All no longer a surprise.

- A weak US$ this morning (GBP / US$ 1.1722) should level the firm expected opening (GBP +7) for now. Have a nice weekend.

Nov 10  - Asia Coffee-Vietnam supplies rise amid thin trade; premiums rise in Indonesia (Reuters)

 - Vietnam’s coffee supplies built up this week as farmers started to pick beans but trading remained thin on weak demand, while prices rose in Indonesia on tightening supplies post-harvest, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans at 39,700-41,300 dong($1.60-$1.66), down from 40,400-41,900 dong range a week ago.
“Lower prices this week were in line with a drop in global prices and due to more supplies,” said a trader based in Central Highlands province of Dak Lak.
“Farmers have harvested 15% of their crop but the weather now is a bit gloomy to dry bean under the sun.”

- Another trader also based in the same region said demand had yet to pick up as buyers were waiting for more beans to come and watching the market situation. January robusta futures on ICE settled $12, or 1%, lower on Wednesday, at $1,819, the lowest level this year, according to Refinitiv Eikon data. Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount range of $60-$70 per tonne to the March contract.

- Prices of Sumatra robusta beans in Indonesia’s Lampung extended their climbs as supply continued to drop. A trader in Lampung province offered $40 premium to the January contract, up from last week’s $20 premium to the November contract.
“Trade is getting thin because there were only very small amount of beans arrived in Bandar Lampung this week,” the trader said, referring to the capital city of Lampung province. Another trader offered $210 premium to the January-February contracts, up from $200 premium quoted for November-December contracts last week.
“The higher premium was to compensate for a drop in the benchmark prices and thin stocks post-harvest,” the second trader said.

Nov 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- A new day, a new high and another impressive (chart-wise) performance of the London cocoa market. The March 23 gained strongly and traded at highs of GBP 2054, closing just below at GBP 2052 / GBP +36. Thus, the market gained a good GBP 200 in 9 (!) trading days. Volume was good at just under 55,000 lots, of which just under half were spreads. This could indicate a roll of fundamental shorts.

- The NY market was slower yesterday, with the March 23 ending the day up $6 at $2530. It is also interesting to note that the markets are now approaching the $2600 level, the much sought after minimum price of the origin...Just a thought on our part with no guarantee of correctness, but this could be the point of possible significant resistance.

- In the origin, the situation continues to escalate, now there is a threat of suspension of all sustainability projects, from 20.11., if the industry / trade does not agree to the demanded prices / diffs. Uncertainty continues to dominate the markets, and an end is probably not in sight for another 10 days (hopefully).

Nov 10  - TMO and Ferrero buying of hazelnuts contrasts with otherwise subdued market (IHSmarkit)

- TMO is expected to have purchased 200,000 in-shell tonnes by the end of this year. Prices expected to increase over coming weeks. Some contracts in Turkish hazelnuts have been concluded for the first quarter of 2023, but the market in general remains quiet.

- Dennis Havelaar, junior broker at QFN Trading & Agency, recalled that Ferrero has bought approximately 280,000 tonnes of in-shell hazelnuts. The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has bought approximately 155,000 in-shell tonnes. With the current pace of purchasing by TMO the continued expectation is that it will have taken 200,000 tonnes by the end of the year.
“It seems TMO will not stop purchasing through 2023 and purchases are expected to continue at least until March-April,” Havelaar added.

- The euro regained some strength against the Turkish lira and US dollar compared with last week. In today's exchange, 1 euro is equal to $1.00, which could be a positive sign for buyers in Europe if the euro keeps this level or keeps regaining its strength, Havelaar suggested. Compared with last week, this week’s Turkish hazelnut prices remain the same or are slightly lower.
“The consensus is that prices are in an upward trend from here, based on figures from the past. Although it remains to be noted: past performance is no guarantee for future outcomes,” Havelaar added.

- QFN Trading gave the following current price indications for 2022 crop hazelnuts (class 1) on a per 100 kilo, delivered Europe (DAP) basis:-


- For shipments per container, cfr EMP: deduction $6/100 kg (subject to final destination port). Surcharge for extra class: $10/100 kg. Dispatch November 2022 onwards.

- Meanwhile, UK trader Ronly Limited, which represents Turkish hazelnut processor Ronly Gida, announced that it is the only hazelnut supplier in Turkey with the highest quality certificates of globally accepted standards obtained through unannounced audits. Olivier Telvi of Ronly Limited said: “Although Ronly Gıda is only a six year old factory, these are decades of hazelnut industry experience behind it which has created rapid growth. With the contribution of this experience, we have achieved a very high level of quality in a short time.
“Last year, as a result of the announced audit, we were able to obtain an AA grade from BRC and a Higher Level Grade score of 97.80% from IFS. This year, we have continued our proven quality level, which we are absolutely sure of, to a further stage. Currently, we have AA+ grade from BRC and higher level grade with 98.13% score from IFS which were audited by Intertek with unannounced audits.”
Telvi added that the company’s goal is to always give the best with the highest quality level by showing maximum compliance with the requirements of global standards and the requests of its customers.

Nov 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- At GBP 2026, the 2nd month in London hit another new 32-month high yesterday. Hedging pressure from the origin, for the current crop, however, slowed yesterday's move. March 23 ended the day at GBP +8 at GBP 2016.

- As described yesterday, the "New York shorts" continued to look for a way out and the market firmed in the close at $+38 at $2524, this again on heavy volume. The industry continues to wait for a correction, which technically would be overdue...but this is all just theorising.

- The dockworkers in San Pedro continue to strike and the flow of cocoa and especially the quality is seen by some as being at risk. Exports of cocoa beans from Côte d'Ivoire, in the previous 21/22 harvest, were 6.5% below the previous year, while exports of products increased by 13%, partly offsetting the decline.

Nov 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After narrowly missing a breakthrough of the resistance level of GBP 2000 on Friday (2nd position), momentum was maintained on Monday for levels to be broken. Triggered by the New York cocoa market confirming extensive short covering, both markets rose during the day to close at GBP 2008 (GBP +12, 0.60%) in Ldn and USD 2486 (USD +56, 2.25%) in NY. With another strengthening of the front month , the Ldn Z/Z shows a significant inverse structure. Monday's close shows an inverse structure of CZ22/CZ23 of GBP -159 in Ldn.

- The strength of the front month in NY, resulting from the closing of short positions, has  also lifted NY front positions with CCZ22/CCZ23 currently at -67 USD. A structure that could become more entrenched if we see further closures of short positions in NY.

- Cocoa arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire totalled 348k tonnes in the year to 6 November, down 23% on the same period last season. Some 53k tonnes of beans were delivered between 31 October and 6 November, down from 79k tonnes in the same week last season.

Nov 07 - India allows mills to export 6 mln tonnes sugar in 2022/23

- India on Saturday approved the 2022/23 export of 6 million tonnes of sugar, in line with market expectations for the year's first tranche. India exported an all-time high of more than 11 million tonnes of sugar in 2021/22 and the industry was expecting New Delhi this year to allow exports of 8 to 9 million tonnes in two tranches.

Nov 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Unperturbed, the London cocoa market on Friday continued its climb towards the important psychological resistance level at GBP 2000 basis 2nd month. Although the March23 contract closed just below at GBP 1998 (GBP +44), it hit a new 2.5 year high of GBP 2002, taking the Mar23 GBP 113 vertical meters in 5 trading days, with participation growing daily. On Friday alone, around 45k lots changed hands.

- The Committments of Traders figures, as of Tuesday, show a reduction of the speculative long position by 7.5k lots, thus Net Long Ldn&NY at 14.5k lots. Over all Net Long +84k.

- The CCC & CMC set a deadline for all buyers to pay the LID of $400 and positive origin differentials on sold contracts as of Nov 20. Otherwise, all sustainability programs will be suspended. It is not clear from the reports whether new or already sold contracts are meant.

Nov 04  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- Sharp fall expected in Chinese peanut production
- Turkish dried apricot exports down 22% for the season so far
- Continued slow demand for US walnuts

Production
- Plantings are under way for the new peanut crops in Argentina and Brazil. Argentina’s acreage may fall between 5-15% year-on-year due to rising input costs.
- Peanut production in China is expected to fall by 3.4 million tonnes year-on-year while that of India is forecast to decline by 600,000 tonnes as growers in both origins are turning to other cash crops such as soybeans or cotton. Moreover, heavy rains and flooding have hit peanut plantations in India.
- Harvesting of the US peanut crop is approaching its end in many of the eight key growing states.
- The Spanish equity firm Azora has taken a 33% stake in the sustainable almond grower ISFA for an undisclosed sum. ISFA is developing almond orchards through the methodology called Sustainable Efficient System (SES), with state-of-the-art technology for harvesting and water consumption. In addition, it is building an energy plant using almond residues.

Demand
- Inflation is hitting the US peanut market, where freight fares are still at highs although most processors are not worried as they assume peanuts will increase their market share in the snack industry as it is the cheapest nut.
- Overseas buying of Turkish dried apricots has declined so far this season (see Trade below), most likely due to higher prices deterring buyers from taking much forward coverage.
- European nut brokers and traders report that the walnut market remains one of slow demand and sufficient supply, but the underlying sentiment seems to be improving slightly.

Trade
- Covid-19 restrictions in China are inevitably hampering trade flows to and from the region, such as in the peanut sector. Clearly, this will change when the country’s government lifts its ‘zero Covid policy’.
- Turkish dried apricot exports reached 3,210 tonnes in the week ending on 29 October 2022, 61% more y/y, bringing seasonal sales (1 August 2022-29 October 2022) to 22,318 tonnes valued at $121.3 million, 22% less y/y in volume and 9% more in value.

Price
- Chinese peanut buyers globally are said to be launching bids to purchase in order to avoid a scramble for material when the government lifts its Covid-19 restrictions to replenish stocks for the Chinese New Year festival. If these rumours are confirmed to be true then currently stable Chinese peanut prices could shift dramatically.
- It is felt that the real downturn of US walnut prices seems to be over now that prices have moved at or over cost price for many producers.
- Weekly fob prices for Turkish dried apricots in the week ending on 29 October were:

    Whole dried apricots: $5,730/tonne, 2% less month-on-month and 20% more y/y
    Sulphured dried apricots: $2,883/tonne, 12% less m/m and 18% more y/y
    Cut dried apricots: $4,353/tonne, 9% less m/m and 26% more y/y

Nov 04  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- 19% fall in the Indian cumin seed production projected in the 2022-23 season
- German government to delist hemp and cannabis from the Narcotics Act
- 7% increase in Argentina’s honey exports

Production
- India’s 2022-23 cumin seed production is expected to drop by 19.3% year-on-year to 585,000 tonnes, after falling by 9% between the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons, due to the combination of drought and falling acreage after prices hit rock-bottom in 2021.
- The 2022 French honey crop has reached 30,570 tonnes, 54% more y/y, mirroring the 2020 level, according to a survey conducted by the French Interprofessional Association of Beekeepers (Interapi) and the French Association of Beekeeping Research (ADA). This robust growth relied on favourable spring and summer weather in northern origins, the southern ones being hit by drought and heatwaves. Acacia and colza honey accounted for 16% and 12%, respectively, of the total. Meanwhile, organic honey took around 28% of the volume and an additional 3% came from beehives in the process of being certified as organic.

Demand
- The German government is set to strengthen the domestic demand for hemp and CBD products. It has just released a proposal draft to delist hemp and cannabis from its Narcotics Act, developing a specific regulation about their production, supply chain and consumption.
- Chinese importers have sharply increased bids for Sudanese sesame as their stocks are at low levels due to Covid-19 restrictions, mirroring other basic food commodities such as soybeans and peanuts.

Trade
- India’s cumin seed exports reached 134,770 tonnes valued at $342.9 million in January-August 2022, 30% less y/y in volume and 10% less in value. Bangladesh and China were the main importers, accounting for 24% and 19%, respectively.
- Argentina’s international honey sales reached 55,840 tonnes, 7% more y/y, valued at $191.4 million, 9% more y/y, in January-September 2022. The US and Germany were the main importers, accounting for 62% and 21%, respectively, of the volume.
- Brazil’s honey exports fell by 26% y/y to 30,205 tonnes and by 20% in value to $112.6 million in January-September 2022. The US and Germany were the main importers, accounting for 75% and 10%, respectively, of the volume.

Prices
- Indian cumin seed spot prices averaged INR24,065/quintal ($292.3/quintal) at the Unjha market (Gujarat, North West) on 31 October 2022, 1% less m/m and 60% more y/y.
- India’s new sesame seed (whitish) spot price averaged INR14,000/quintal ($169.3/quintal) on 2 November 2022, at the Unjha wholesale market, 7% more m/m and 30% more y/y.
- Robust Chinese demand and global supply shortage are raising Sudanese sesame prices, averaging $1,650/tonne fob Port Sudan this October, 14% more than in H1 2022.

Nov 04  - Asia Coffee-Traders await new beans in Vietnam, prices rise in Indonesia (Reuters)

- Domestic prices in Vietnam narrowed this week on muted trade, with buyers waiting for fresh beans to arrive in the upcoming weeks, while prices in Indonesia were higher amid dwindled supplies, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans at 40,400-41,900 dong ($1.63-$1.67), narrowing from last week's 40,900-43,200 dong range.
“Harvest has started in some areas but not much. Buyers will still have to wait at least three weeks more for beans for abundant beans supply,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.
“Output might be slightly lower than last year.”

- Another trader said the fact that dong currency was weaker than U.S. dollar might be a positive push to coffee exports. January robusta futures on ICE settled $12, or 1%, lower on Wednesday, at $1,872.
Coffee exports from Vietnam are estimated to have increased 10.6% in the first 10 months of this year from a year earlier to 1.4 million tonnes, equal to 23 million 60-kg (130-pound) bags, official data showed.

- Meanwhile, Indonesia exported 53,268.62 tonnes of Sumatran robusta coffee beans in September, data from a local trade office showed, more than double the shipments a year earlier. Traders in Indonesia were raising prices amid thinning supplies. A trader said Sumatran robusta beans were offered at a premium of $20 to the November contract, up from last week’s $10 premium. Another trader also doubled their premium to $200 to the December contract, versus $100 premium to the November contract last week.

“Local supply is thin. Farmers are holding back on their stocks and would not sell at cheap prices,” one of the traders said. ($1 = 24,860 dong)

Nov 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- A new 2.5 year high was on the London screens at the end of yesterday's session. Continued upward momentum of quotations and tailwind from the currencies in connection with the Bank of England's interest rate hike brought the levels up to 35 points north towards the evening.

- Although such an interest rate measure is normally intended to support the local currency, the opposite occurred. BoE chief Bailey had noted that the peak interest rates would probably end below market expectations, which was not exactly supportive for the local currency.

- Supported in part by this, the second month Mar 22 surpassed the highs of early October before running out of fuel just below the GBP 1960 level. The close was 30 points up (GBP 1952).

Nov 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- For the third day in a row, the cocoa market rallied and has now recovered significantly from the late October lows at GBP 1847 / March 23. The second term gained GBP 24 in the close and ended the day at GBP 1922.

- As always, things move fast in cocoa...The Managed Money Specs / Funds have rediscovered their buying interest, after a creative break. Now primarily for the 2nd date, the long March 23 / March 24 structure widened again last week around GBP 50. Origins continue to keep a low profile for the 23/24 campaign. Increased hedging pressure there is likely to divide the structure further.

- The Fed raised the key interest rate, for the 4th time in a row, by 0.75%. A significant strengthening of the US$ overnight was the logical consequence and should, technically, support the market. The NY chart currently looks like a breakout to the upside, but only time will tell if yesterday's attempt was successful.

Nov 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With moderate volume, the market consolidated for much of the day. Only in the afternoon did the March 23 dare a tentative look upwards. The 2-month only just broke through the psychological resistance at GBP 1900 (high GBP 1901) and ended the day, just below, at GBP 1898 / GBP +13. We see next resistance, based on March 23, at GBP 1928 and GBP 1955.

- We expect increased support from price assurances from the industry from GBP 1850. A large international manufacturer published its annual figures yesterday. Volumes for the full year rose to 2.3 million tonnes. The 5.3% increase slowed from the 7.9% rise in the first nine months of the year.

- In addition, another major food producer reported strong growth in its North America and emerging markets business, which more than offset the 2.4% drop in sales in Europe.

Nov 01  - Sharp increase in Chinese bids for Sudanese peanuts and sesame (IHSmarkit)

- Abundant rains herald bumper peanut and sesame crops
- Sesames are being quoted at $1,650/tonne fob and $1,400/tonne, respectively, this October

- Sudan’s agribusiness industry is set to increase its sales of peanuts and sesame as Chinese purchasers have come back earlier this month to launch bids after several months of slowed imports, trading sources explained. In addition, Port Sudan is working in full swing although public sector workers are striking intermittently, delaying export formalities and shipments.
“Chinese purchasers were quiet for a long time and, suddenly, they started to launch massive orders to replenish stocks, shaking the market in October,” the commercial director of FAAS Trade & Investment, Fares Oufi, told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

- Prices are at high levels for peanuts and sesame, some of the most imported Sudanese agrocommodities by China. Sesame is currently quoted at $1,650/tonne fob and peanuts at $1,400/tonne fob. It is still early to forecast the sesame and peanut new crops although they are expected to be bumper thanks to abundant rains

Gum Arabic
- The gum Arabic Hashab supply remains abundant. Prices for grade 1 (Hashab) ranged from $2,100-2,200/tonne fob this October, down from $2,300/tonne this August.
- Meanwhile, Grade 2 (Talha) increased significantly in the last two months due to heavy buying from India, currently ranging from $950-1,000/tonne fob.

Nov 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The large expansion of the speculative short position in NY (see yesterday's report) and a temporarily weaker British pound ensured a firmer course of the day with the announcement. The London market followed the New York market, with much less fervour. March 23 traded at its peak at GBP 1887 and ended the day, just below the highs, at GBP 1885. March 23 NY +$31 at $2343, the arbitrage thus widened once again by GBP 25/30, London is now trading at GBP 147 at a discount to NY.

- Technically both markets are oversold, NY much stronger than London.

- Arrivals in Ivory Coast are at 295,000mt / -21% as of 30 Oct.


Nov 01  - Indian spot and futures cumin seed prices stabilised at around INR24,000/quintal
(IHSmarkit)

- 30% fall in exports
- Gradual fall in futures prices

- Indian cumin seed spot prices averaged INR24,065 per quintal ($292.3/quintal) at the Unjha market (Gujarat, North West) on 31 October 2022, 1% less month-on-month and 60% more y/y.

- Cumin seed exports reached 134,770 tonnes valued at $342.9 million in January-August 2022, 30% less y/y in volume and 10% less in value, according to customs data. Bangladesh and China were the main importers of whole coriander (95% of the exported volume), accounting for 24% and 19%, respectively.

- India’s 2022-23 cumin production is expected to drop by 19.3% year-on-year to 585,000 tonnes, after falling by 9% between the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons, due to the combination of drought and falling acreage after prices hit rock-bottom in 2021. That means that prices are likely to be stabilised at highs.

- The updated daily futures market price on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) was INR24,200/quintal for deliveries in November 2022 on 28 October, 3% less m/m

Oct 31 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- In holiday or bridge day mood, the market consolidated at current levels last Friday. The March 23 traded in a GBP 1851/1878 range, closing GBP -8 at GBP 1861. The near Dec 22 / March 23 spread weakened further to end the day at GBP +34/32.

- Commitment of Traders as of 10/25/22 show, once again, contrasting behaviour of the two markets.

- While in NY the managed money short position increased by 12,611 lots, the managed money specs / funds in London increased their gross long position by 6,087 lots. Mind you, in London, the 15th consecutive increase! The long position has now reached levels last seen in February 2020.

- Market this afternoon GBP +15 / GBP 1877 March 23 , EUR/ GBP 0.8614 / GBP / $ 1.149

Oct 31 - End of day report for US grown or foreign origin with US duty paid raw cane Sugar No.16 Futures traded on ICE in New York for 28 October 2022.

-
Raw Cane Sugar (SF): 34.15c (-0.35)

Oct 31  - Brazil Elects Lula, a Leftist Former Leader, in a Rebuke of Bolsonaro

- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be the country’s next president, officials confirmed ( with 50.90% voters ), after a long and bitter campaign between the former president and the current far-right leader. It was a rejection of Jair Bolsonaro’s far-right movement and his divisive four years in office.
- Brazil ejects Bolsonaro and brings back the former leftist leader Lula.
- Lula’s victory likely means big changes for Brazil, though his specific plans are vague.
- Bolsonaro’s allies and supporters had warned of fraud. Then they begrudgingly accepted defeat. Bolsonaro lost. Will he accept the results?
- Bolsonaro, in defeat, may now face charges.

Oct 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With further GBP strength in the morning, Ldn Cocoa opened with another negative signal GBP -10 in the early minutes to briefly break the support line and uptrend line at GBP 1850 on Mar 23 with a low of GBP 1846. With downward momentum drying up and new buyers entering, the weakness phase came to an end. Closing the day at GBP +10 / GBP 1869. Leading the trend was NY, which ended the day USD +32 at USD 2327 Mar 23 (+1.38%).

- Barry Callebaut announced that thanks to a new way of growing, fermenting and roasting cocoa beans, it was able to reduce the bitter taste of cocoa to use around 50% less sugar in the chocolate bar. In return, the cocoa content could be increased to 60-70%, which would make use of more of the cocoa's positive properties.

- From the financial world: As expected, the ECB raised the key interest rate for deposits by 75 basis points to 1.5%. Coming up on Friday: German GDP and inflation figures for the third quarter. More globally, the Bank of Japan's next monetary policy decisions are due in Japan.

Oct 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Contrary to last week's experience, when the correction that had started came to an abrupt end, further liquidation of the longs and a firm British pound put further pressure on the market. The March 23 hit a fresh one-month low at GBP 1857, closing GBP -25 / GBP 1859. The 50-day moving average at GBP 1860, as well as the uptrend line, provided the expected support. With all long-term averages still well below the market (GBP 1814 100 days / GBP 1792 200 days), technically the air would be clear for a further correction.

- The clear reduction or shift of open interest from London to NY suggests a possible repositioning of specs / funds.

- With decisions by the ECB, FED and BoE approaching, we should continue to look at the currencies.

- The industry, in contrast to the previous day, held back on price hedging yesterday. Delicate steps for the 23/24 were the only highlight here.

Oct 26  - Brazilian cashew crop projected to fall due to heavy rains (IHSmarkit)

- La Niña expected to hit Vietnamese and Cambodian crops
- 25% fall in Brazilian crop expected

- Brazil’s 2022-23 cashew nut crop is expected to fall by 26% year-on-year to 100,000 tonnes due to unseasonal heavy rains during the harvest, according to the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council in its latest production update.
- Vietnam and Cambodia may also be affected by La Niña, falling by 12% and by 8%, respectively, to 350,000 tonnes and 550,000 tonnes.
- India’s production is forecast to reach 675,000 tonnes, 9% less y/y. The Indian consumption remains high despite inflation, heralding record imports. On the other hand, Ivory Coast is the only key origin whose output is expected to grow, totalling 1,050,000 tonnes, 50,000 tonnes up from the 2021-22 season.

Oct 26  - Fall in Indian guar gum prices (IHSmarkit)

- 7% m/m fall in spot prices 
- 20% growth in exports
- 12% fall in futures prices for deliveries from December 2022-March 2023

- India’s guar gum spot price averaged INR9,150 ($110.8) per quintal at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 21 October 2022, 7% less month-on-month and 6% less year-on-year. Indian guar gum exports rose by 20% y/y to 166,440 tonnes, valued at $338.0 million in January-August 2022, 89% more. The US, Russia and Germany accounted for 29%, 14% and 13% (volume), respectively.
The daily futures market prices on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) were for deliveries in October 2022 closed at INR8,922/quintal on 20 October 2022, 13% less m/m

Oct 26 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The weak opening kicked off an interesting day of trading in London, with almost all futures failing to mark any significant gains at any point. Instead, the market remained under pressure from the start, although the current weakness in GBP persisted for most of the time. Later in the afternoon, Sterling firmed and intensified the downward movement. Mar23 closed down GBP 44 (GBP 1884). The forwards from Dec 23 onwards lost much less (GBP -13 to -17), the structure flattened noticeably in this respect.

- Remains a look into the crystal ball: Technically, there is room for another GBP 20 to 30 downside ( 2nd month basis) to support around GBP 1860, and the GBP has not lost ground overnight so far.

- However, industrial buying interest at these longer-term favourable levels and profit-taking could provide sufficient support and bring about a countermovement northwards.

Oct 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- For almost exactly 4 weeks now, the market (base 2 month) is now in the GBP 1860-1950 band width. The March 23 traded firm throughout the day and was now approaching the upper end of the range with a close of GBP 1928 (high GBP 1929). Currency, for once, was not the deciding factor yesterday. The fourth firm day in a row thus almost completely eroded last Monday's correction, suggesting that the "longs" have taken over again. A break through GBP 1954 (May 2020 highs) should generate further buying interest.

- The origin continues to hold off selling for 23/24 and continues to call for positive origin differentials.

- Arrivals in the Ivory Coast are slowly catching up, as of 23/10 these stand at 204,000mt (-26.4%), down from -43% last week.

Oct 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With just over 14,000 lots traded and the absence of specs/funds, the cocoa market remained firmly in the hands of FX on Friday.

- Weakness in sterling provided support and continued origin activity for the near term then provided the appropriate resistance.

- March 23 traded in a GBP 1891/1922 range and ended the day GBP +6 at GBP 1907, with Asian grinding figures up 9.5% in Q3 22. Total now stands at 3.26% for Q3 22, with a healthy 4.14% gain for the 21/22 crop.

- On Friday, it was announced that the decision-makers of the CCC and the CMC will each stay away from the World Cocoa Federation meeting (this week in Brussels). The reason given for the protest was the industry's refusal to pay the farmer a positive country differential.

- Commitment of Traders as of 18.10. show a reduction of the combined net long position from 7,269 to now 91,129 lots long. Managed Money was also subdued (for once), reducing only 3,331 of their longs, thus holding a spec. Longs position of 32,684 lots.

Oct 21  - Asia Coffee-Domestic prices fall in Vietnam on global cues, tight supplies in Indonesia (Reuters)

- Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell this week, tracking a drop in the London market, while traders in Indonesia were struggling to buy beans due to depleted stocks at the end of the harvest, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans COFVN-DAK at 43,300-45,000 dong ($1.77-$1.84) per kilogram, down from 46,100-47,000 dong range a week ago.

- January robusta futures on ICE shed $97, or 4.6% over the past week as of Wednesday’s close, hitting $2,000, the lowest level since July 27, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.
“Prices witnessed a fall due to stronger dollar and concerns over weak demand,” said a trader based in the coffee belt. “Domestic prices dipped this week in line with global prices.”

- Another trader said it has been sunny this week and farmers would start picking cherry in November. Vietnam exported 1.73 tonnes, of coffee in the 2021/22 crop season, equivalent to 28.8 million 60-kg bags, the highest level in the past four years, official data showed.

- Indonesia’s Sumatra robusta coffee beans were quoted at $10 discount to the November contract, compared with last week’s $50 discount, one trader said as “harvest has ended and exporters are struggling to secure beans.” Another trader said for November and December contract, Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at $70 premium, compared with $30-$40 discount range last week, as the prices were adjusted to a drop in London terminal, the trader said.

Oct 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The resignation of British Prime Minister Truss had, at least yesterday, little impact on the British pound and subsequently on the cocoa market. The March 23 traded, with little activity, in a GBP 1888/1915 range and ended the day GBP +12 at GBP 1901, so correspondingly above / below resistance / support at GBP 1900 (depending on how one is currently tuned into the market).

- Overnight, sterling weakened, now trading at 1.118 vs. the US$ and 0.8748 vs. the EUR. This should provide support for the time being.

- In the after-hours yesterday, the North American grinding figures were published. At -3.37%, they were at the lower end of expectations. Especially considering that only 15 companies reported instead of 16.

Oct 20  - Turkish hazelnut market shows varying demand

- TMO has purchased around 120,000 tonnes so far
- Ferrero’s purchasing agreement seems to be completed

- European nut traders and brokers report that purchases of Turkish hazelnuts by European buyers continue to be slow. On the other hand, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) is maintaining a rapid pace of buying. Dennis Havelaar, junior broker at QFN Trading & Agency, said the TMO is expected to take about 200,000 tonnes from the farmers by the end of December. So far, it has bought about 120,000 tonnes. The prices in the local market are increasing from those of last week. In-shell hazelnuts prices rose to TRY46 ($2.47) per kilo from TRY44/kg earlier (a 4.5% increase). Ferrero seems to have finished its purchasing agreement with sellers. Havelaar noted that the lira is quite stable against the US dollar compared with last week. The euro slightly gained some value.

- QFN Trading gave the following current price indications for 2022 crop hazelnuts (class 1) on a per 100 kilo, delivered Europe (DAP) basis:-

    Roasted meal 0-2mm $565 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro €572)
    Roasted diced 2-4mm $585 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro €597)
    Roasted diced 5-7mm $595 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €608)
    Roasted diced 8-12mm $605 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €618)
    S.r. blanched 11-13mm <10% skin $645 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €659)
    S.r. blanched 12-14mm <10% skin $645 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €659)
    S.r. blanched 12-14mm <5% skin $650 in 10 kg vacuum cartons (indication in euro: €664)
    NHK 11-13mm $555 in 10 kg cartons (indication in euro: €562)
    NHK 13-15mm $560 in 10 kg cartons (indication in euro: €567)

For shipments per container, cfr EMP: deduction $6/100 kg (subject to final destination port).
Surcharge for extra class: $10/100 kg.
Dispatch October 2022 onwards.

Oct 20  - Indonesian clove prices set to firm due to crop shortage

- Indonesian crop estimated to halve due to heavy rains
- 5% y/y increase in Madagascan prices

- The Indonesian clove crop halved year-on-year to around 10,000 tonnes as heavy rains hit orchards, with prices being at highs as large purchasers cannot cover the domestic demand, looking for alternative origins, particularly during the Diwali festival (November), when the Indian demand is very strong.

- Madagascar’s crop is estimated at around 12,500-13,000 tonnes, around 1,000 tonnes down from the previous season, as a cyclone hit Madagascan orchards. Madagascan clove prices averaged $10,000/tonne exw in the week ending on 15 October, stagnant m/m and 5% more y/y, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

- Meanwhile, Comoros shipping costs have fallen by $300-400/tonne, making it attractive to increase its global market share.

- However, shipments to the EU are suffering bottlenecks as many orders are not fulfilling its rules on maximum residue levels.

Oct 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Despite a fresh low of GBP 1869 / March 23, signs continued to point to consolidation in London yesterday. In the afternoon the market recovered and the March 23 ended the day at GBP +10 at GBP 1889. From a technical point of view, today could be an interesting and possibly directional day.

- Open interest in NY, 3 weeks before First Notice Day Dec 22, remains at an impressive 112,354 lots. The near Dec 22 / March 23 spread there traded yesterday at a low of US$ -12 / close US$ -2. New selling against the Dec 22 deadline will probably keep it under pressure to at least make the rolling of the remaining shorts cost-free.

- Technically a very interesting market at the moment. From the fundamental side, little new. Inflation in Ghana is now rising to 45% and the cedi has already depreciated by 40% this year. Ghana thus remains a problem child in its origins. An intervention by the IMF in the near future is therefore quite realistic.

Oct 19  - Cocoa processing in Brazil increased by 10.1%

- March London futures fell by GBP48 and finished at GBP1,881 per tonne.
- December New York cocoa futures dropped by USD37 to USD2,340 per tonne.
- Fifth-largest chocolate consumer, Brazil, increased cocoa processing by 10.1% in September, according to Reuters.
- It was also reported that “ICE New York cocoa speculators trimmed their net short position by 5,962 contracts to 14,143 in the week to Oct. 11.”

Oct 19  - Brazilian and Vietnamese traders are clearing out pepper stocks

- Brazilian pepper crop close to reaching 100,000 tonnes
- Vietnamese traders clearing out pepper stocks 

- Vietnamese and Brazilian pepper prices may fall as Vietnamese traders are clearing out their stocks to start shipping coffee and the Brazilians aim to cut carry-over stocks just when the harvest is close to finishing in Para (north), according to trading sources. Para’s crop is expected to reach around 35,000 tonnes, with total Brazilian output at around 95,000-100,000 tonnes.
- Indonesia’s crop is expected to fall by 5% y/y to 45,000 tonnes, its average quality being very high. Indonesian stocks are not flooding the market and prices are stabilised.

S&P Global Commodity Insights quoted the following cif prices in the week ending on 13 October:

    Vietnamese black pepper, faq. Min. 500 g/l: $4,000/tonne, stagnant m/m
    Vietnamese white pepper, 550 g/l: $6,300/tonne, stagnant m/m
    Indonesian black pepper, Lampong: $4,200/tonne, stagnant m/m
    Indonesian white pepper, Muntok: $7,000/tonne, stagnant m/m
    Malaysian black pepper, Sarawak black label: $4,600/tonne, stagnant m/m
    Malaysian white pepper, Sarawak faq: $7,000/tonne, stagnant m/m
    Brazilian black pepper, grade 1: $3,900/tonne, stagnant m/m

Oct 19  - Chinese ginger exports close to year-ago levels

- Netherlands is biggest market in first eight months of this year
- US is close second in terms of volumes purchased

- China’s ginger exports (HS codes 091011 and 091012) in the first eight months of this year were only marginally down (nearly 2%) from those of the same period a year ago at 300,482 tonnes versus 306,578 earlier. However, in the January-August period of 2020 the country’s ginger exports reached 374,620 tonnes.

- The Netherlands was the biggest buyer in the 2022 period with a market share of 12.1% and a volume of 36,390 tonnes versus 35,943 tonnes in the first eight months of 2021. In view of the Netherlands role as a trading hub it does of course have to be borne in mind that some of these quantities were destined for onward sale to other destinations.
- The US was close second with 12.04% market share and 36,191 tonnes, a decline of 4.7% from its January-August 2021 purchases of 37,981 tonnes.
- Third leading importer the United Arab Emirates (UAE) raised its volumes 26% to 32,322 tonnes in the 2022 period from 26,563 tonnes earlier.
- Bangladesh was next with an 80.2% boost in its volumes in the first eight months of this year to 31,350 tonnes from 17,392 tonnes previously.
- Meanwhile, China’s ginger exports to Pakistan in the 2022 period declined 23.9% to 28,136 tonnes from 36,984 tonnes earlier.

- China has been pretty consistent with its ginger exports in the last five years (2017-2021). In 2017, it exported a total of 454,510 tonnes of ginger globally. This increased to 490,471 tonnes in 2018, rising further to 537,826 tonnes in 2019 before tailing off to 511,118 tonnes in 2020 and then falling back again to 456,876 tonnes in 2021. The US was its leading market last year with 58,255 tonnes, followed by the Netherlands with 57,642 tonnes. Pakistan, the UAE and Malaysia were third, fourth and fifth biggest destinations respectively in 2021.

Oct 19  - Sri Lankan desiccated coconut exports growth relying on low prices

- 25% increase in shipments
- Iraq, Egypt and the US are the main importers

- Sri Lanka’s desiccated coconut exports rose by 25% y/y in volume to 31,380 tonnes and fell by 5% in value to $71.3 million in January-September 2022, according to customs data.
The main importers were Iraq, Egypt and the US, which accounted for 9%, 8% and 8%, respectively of the volume.
- The fresh price averaged LKR59.2 ($0.16) per coconut in the Kuliyapiitya coconut auction on 13 October, stagnant m/m. Wholesale desiccated coconut prices ranged from LKR420-440/kg for fine (stagnant m/m) and from LKR495-540/kg (stagnant m/m) for medium in the week ending on 7 October.

Oct 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After some volatile recent sessions, Ldn cocoa saw a more moderate trading day on Tuesday. Prices opened almost unchanged, rose briefly and then fell back to near opening level troughout the day. A slight depreciation of GBP against USD during the day helped the London market to hold above the next technical support at 1871. Closing March 23 GBP -2 at GBP 1879. New York followed the strength of the US$ and corrected around US$ 27 / Closing March 23 US$ 2313. In London, the nearby Z'22/H'23 continues to soften, moving from its high of GBP 72 on 4 October to a premium of GBP 42 today.

- Currently, there is little news from the grading room since the single BDU from Cameroon the previous week.

- The next important data to be released on Thursday are the US Q3 grinding figures. The market is expecting slightly negative results.

Oct 18  - Indian turmeric spot prices stabilised below INR7,000/quintal

- 1% fall in spot prices
- 9% growth in exports

- The Indian spot fob unpolished turmeric price averaged INR6,888/quintal ($83.6/quintal) at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, South Central) on 17 October, 1% less month-on-month and 3% less year-on-year.
- The country’s global sales reached 111,050 tonnes, 9% more y/y, worth $148.3 million, in January-August 2022, 11% more y/y in value. The main importers were Bangladesh, the UAE and Morocco, taking 17%, 12% and 7%, respectively, of the volume.

The updated daily futures market prices on NCDEX were INR6,936/quintal for deliveries in October on 14 October, 6% less m/m

Oct 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- A very firm British pound, as well as the significant spec position shift in the previous week weighed heavily on the markets yesterday, especially the London futures market.

- The London / March 23 market corrected by 2.5% or GBP 52 at the peak to lows of GBP 1881. March 23 close GBP -48 at GBP 1881. New York ignored the brief weakness in the US$ and still corrected by US$ 27 / March 23 close US$ 2340. Technically, the London market is now in oversold territory for the first time in just over 4 weeks.

- Grinding figures Q3 22 in Côte d'Ivoire +10%. In view of the energy crisis in Côte d'Ivoire in Q2 21, which also affected the Q3 grindings, still a robust performance.

- The 180 degree turnaround of the new British finance minister is also keeping the markets busy today, GBP vs. EUR 0.869 / GBP vs. US$ 1.132.It remains exciting.

Oct 17  - Arabica coffee falls to one-year low (IHSmarkit)

- Arabica coffee futures on ICE lost nearly 10% in the week ending 14 October to hit a one-year low on Friday as good weather improved the forecast for next year’s crop in Brazil, according to Reuters. The December arabica coffee contract settled down 5.45 cents, or 2.7%, at $1.967 per lb. ICE-certified arabica stocks fell to 400,439 bags on Friday, which is the lowest level in 23 years. January robusta coffee contract fell $46, or 2.2%, at $2,051 a tonne.

Oct 17  - Raw sugar contract up as rain hits Brazilian harvest (IHSmarkit)

- The ICE March raw sugar contract rose 0.03 cent, or 0.2%, at 18.84 cents per lb, according to Reuters, gaining 0.8% in the week, as rain slowed the current harvest in Brazil. The December white sugar rose $2.10, or 0.4%, to $559.30 a tonne.

Oct 17  - Vietnam sees further decline in cashew kernel exports (IHSmarkit)

- Downturn is attributed to impacts of economic recession
- Lack of good quality cashew kernels in local market last week

- Vietnam’s exports of cashew kernels fell by 26.75% this September to 39,301 tonnes, bringing the seasonal total (January to September) to 384,093 tonnes, 14.56% lower than in the first nine months of 2021. Vietnam’s cashew kernel shipments to the US were 40.34% down this September at 8,693 tonnes and 24.3% behind for the season so far at 92,082 tonnes.
- Volumes sold to China fell 31.75% last month to 4,358 tonnes while the seasonal totals to this destination were 20% down at 34,372 tonnes.
- Shipments to the EU and other destinations were 19.72% behind this September at 26,250 tonnes and 9.56% down for the January-September period at 257,639 tonnes.

- Ho Chi Minh City-based supplier Golden Bridge attributed the continued downturn in sales to the impacts of the economic recession. The company added that last week the local market lacked good quality cashew kernels when 95% of processors stopped operating and at levels of $2.40-2.45 per pound fob for WW320s more transactions were achieved while higher quality packers could still sell WW320s at $2.57-2.60/lb.
- Broken grades such as WS, LP, and SP are still generating quite good demand and business transactions, the firm noted.

Oct 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- It is currently worth keeping an eye on the political situation in Great Britain and its influence on the British pound. The dismissal of the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who has been in office for six weeks, led to a devaluation of the British pound of almost 1.5% against the US dollar.

- The London market thus found good currency support and the March 23 ended the day at GBP +14 at GBP 1929, almost identical to Monday's close (GBP 1928). Despite all this, we had an eventful week, with a GBP 70 range and good volume at times. Commitment of Traders as of 11.10 clearly reflect the development of the previous week. Managed Money liquidated a good 20k lots of shorts (of which all just under 17k in NY). Managed Money now holds a position of 36,015 lots long. While, across all categories, the long position is scratching the 100,000 lots barrier (98,398 lots).

Oct 14 - Asia Coffee-Vietnam braces for heavy rains, supplies dwindle in Indonesia (Reuters)
 - Vietnam’s Central Highlands is expected to face heavy rains this week that may disrupt coffee harvest in the country’s largest coffee-growing area, while supplies tightened in Indonesia at the end of the harvest, traders said on Thursday. Rains would start from late Thursday until Saturday in the Central Highlands’ Kon Tum, Gia Lai, Dak Lak and Dak Nong provinces, the National Meteorological and Hydrological Center forecast.
“Rains may prevent beans from turning ripe and ready for harvest,” said a trader based in the coffee belt of Dak Lak. “Cherry picking and processing might be delayed in some parts as a result.”

- According to traders, rains at this time of the year are worrisome as they have direct impact on both the quantity and quality of beans. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans COFVN-DAK at 46,100-47,000 dong ($1.92-$1.95) per kilogram, compared with last week's range of 46,600-47,000 dong.

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken grade 2 robusta at a discount of $100-$130 per tonne to the January contract. January robusta futures on ICE settled down $19, or 1%, at $2,141 per tonne on Wednesday.

- Vietnam’s coffee exports in September were down 17.8% from the month before at 92,550 tonnes, government customs data showed. For the first nine months of 2022, Vietnam exported 1.34 million tonnes of coffee, up 13.1% from a year earlier.

- In Indonesia’s Lampung province, some traders increased prices of Sumatran robusta beans this week as harvest ended. Beans were offered at a discount of $50 to the November contract, one trader said, compared with a discount of $80-$90 last week.
“Stock is limited, while demand from exporters was pretty strong despite higher prices,” the trader said.

Oct 14  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- 50% growth in Chinese macadamia and pecan productions projected
- Inflation may halt nut consumption growth  
- Euro depreciation may fuel Spanish almond sales

Production
- China’s 2022-23 macadamia and pecan productions are expected to increase by 50% year-on-year to 50,000 tonnes and 6,000 tonnes, respectively, thanks to growth in planted area.
- The USDA has forecast a US peanut crop of 5.77 billion pounds (2.88 million short tons), 1% less than the previous forecast and 9% less than the 2021 production. The harvested area is projected at 1.41 million acres, unchanged from the previous estimate and 8% less than in 2021. The average yield is forecast at 4,090 lbs per acre, 55 lbs/acre down from the previous forecast and 40 lbs/acre lower y/y.
- The Cashew Board of Tanzania (CBT) has announced that the first cashew auction will take place on 14 October, starting the 2022-23 season, whose crop has reached the record of 400,000 tonnes, 67% more y/y, due to incentives to expand the planted area.

Demand
- Turkey’s walnut and almond consumption is projected to reach 140,000 tonnes and 43,500 tonnes, respectively, with carry-over stocks stagnant y/y at 1,300 tonnes for walnuts and 500 tonnes for almonds. Both are halting their growth as inflation is hitting sales.

Trade
- Californian walnut shipments reached 36.2 million pounds this September, 7% more y/y. In-shell sales reached a minimum of 2.2 million lbs this September, down from 6.2 million lbs in September 2021. Exports accounted for 88% of the total. Shelled sales rose by 15% y/y to 30.86 million lbs this September, with domestic sales and exports reaching 21.35 million lbs (+12.3% y/y) and 9.50 million lbs (+20.3% y/y), respectively.
- Californian raisin exports (including Canada) fell by 20% y/y to 4,210 (short) tons in September 2022. The main importers were Japan, Canada and Philippines with 1,167 tons (-19% y/y), 808 tons (-14% y/y) and 458 tons (+51% y/y), respectively.
- Turkish dried apricot exports reached 1,900 tonnes in the week ending on 1 October 2022, 7% more y/y, bringing seasonal sales (1 August 2021- 1 October 2022) to 14,420 tonnes valued at $78.1 million, 28% less y/y in volume and 3% more in value. The US and France were the main importers, accounting for 13% and 10%, respectively.

Price
- The Spanish almond industry is slowing sales to maintain prices, expecting rising prices and sales to euro depreciation against US dollar, according to trading sources. Prices averaged €4.20-4.30/kg ($4.08-4.17/kg) in September, the price range depending on sizes and not on varieties. Middle-size (12/14) almonds grew by 10 cents m/m this September and large sizes (over 14) did that by 20 cents. Price of varieties such as Lauranne and Guara has been determined by the size, although the latter has been traditionally more appreciated by European importers. Meanwhile, organic almond prices have fallen by €2/kg y/y to €7.5/kg due to the combination of weak demand and rising volumes.
- Turkish dried apricot weekly fob prices in the week ending on 1 October were:
    Whole dried apricots: $5,817/tonne, 6% more m/m and 42% more y/y
    Sulphured dried apricots: $3,289/tonne, $2,000 up from the previous month and 21% more y/y
    Cut dried apricots: $4,759/tonne, 7% more m/m and 35% more y/y

Oct 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- A firm British pound and a lack of buying interest from speculative market participants led (in the first half of the day at least) to an overdue technical correction. The March 23 corrected, at a leisurely pace, to lows of GBP 1885. However, and typical of current market behaviour, this was short-lived. The longs, coupled with industry price hedging in the near term, re-entered and the market rallied to levels at GBP 1934. An impressive bandwidth of GBP 49...closing March 23 GBP +10 at GBP 1915. The 23/24 dates corrected sharply within the last half hour. With low volume and the associated lack of liquidity, they ended the day negatively between GBP -17 / GBP -22.

Oct 14  - Record EU sugar prices leave sweet-makers with bitter taste
Record-high sugar prices in the European Union, nearly three times levels seen a year ago following extreme weather and a surge in energy costs, are forcing confectioners to consider production cuts. The record price of a widely-used food staple is another headwind for EU policymakers as they try to control inflation and curb a cost of living crisis.

Oct 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Both markets came under pressure again yesterday, testing the respective nearest psychological supports at GBP 1900 and US$ 2300. The March 23 in London ended the day GBP -8 at GBP 1905, triggered mainly by hedging pressure from the origin. The impressive rally in the Dec 22/ Mar 23 spread came to an abrupt end yesterday. This widened from mid-September to mid-October from GBP +7 to GBP +70, closing yesterday GBP +46. Suggests that the fundamental shorts in Dec 22 have now already rolled or unwound.

- A further weakening of the structure gives further hope for a short-term technical correction. The industry is at least in the starting blocks.

- The European and German grinding figures are below expectations at -1.6% and -4.7%, respectively.

Oct 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Yesterday's trading day brought us a rollercoaster of emotions. A firm opening was quickly followed by a correction in the London market. Origin price hedges led to a March 23 correction to GBP 1910, only to be met with good buying interest (industry price hedges) and the market made a prompt reversal (high GBP 1944). The rise was then probably enough for some "longs" and the market sank again.

- In the last 4 trading days, the open interest in LDN increased by 13k lots, while in NY it decreased by 11.5k lots. This suggests further speculative longs (not including yesterday's performance).

- Tomorrow, the European and German grinding figures will be published. Market expectations: Germany unchanged to +2%, Europe +2 to +5%. The North American figures will follow next week, and are expected to be unchanged to slightly negative.

Oct 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- After reaching a new 2 ½ price year high, prices in London were unable to continue the upward momentum on Monday. Trading against the backdrop of a slightly weaker Pound, prices reversed in afternoon trade for Ldn  to eventually closed negative on the day. The Ldn March 23 ended the day GBP -11 at GBP 1928 (-0.5%). At a larger discount of GBP-16, the Dec22 again closed below the psychological barrier at GBP 2000, broken only on Friday, to end the day at GBP 1992.

- NY followed this direction to close vs. March23 at USD 2347 (USD-34; -1.41%).

- The Ivory Coast has reported bean new season bean arrivals 22/23 (1st Week) at 21,000mt. A weak start compared to last year's 85,000mt (-75.3%), a number of little significance after one week of the new crop. For 22/23, Côte d'Ivoire estimates a harvest of 2.2 million tonnes. Focus of the week are the ECA milling figures, which will be released on Thursday.

Oct 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- On good volume, the March 23 ended a volatile week, with a near GBP 80 range, on its much firmer side. Fresh speculative longs, as well as shorts seeking cover, led to a break of GBP 1930 resistance and the associated trendline. March 23 ended the day at GBP +28 at GBP 1939, Dec 22 now finally broke its psychological barrier at GBP 2000 and ended the day at GBP 2008 (GBP +43). The Dec 22 / Mar 23 spread widened accordingly to a premium of GBP +70.

- Commitment of Traders as of 04.10.22 reflect only a fraction of this development. Managed Money liquidated (combined) just under 10k lots (mainly in NY) and added a good 13k lots of fresh longs (mainly in LDN). In net terms, Managed Money is once again in a speculative long position of 10,682 lots for quite some time. Still "small" but the air upwards is getting thin.

Oct 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Speculative buying, mainly against the March 23 position in LDN, added to the market yesterday. The March 23 traded to highs of GBP 1935, levels we last saw in May 2020. As is so typical of the current run, the market then corrected sharply in the late afternoon and the March 23 ended the day "only" GBP +7 at GBP 1911. The uptrend line (see chart) and resistance around GBP 1930 thus remains intact. The increased buying interest in March 23 led to the Dec / March spread converging to GBP +55. However, the structure remains clearly inverse and should provide support.

- Price coverage in the industry has declined by a further 3-4 weeks as of the end of September and is now around 8.5 months. A long, technically speaking, correction in LDN would thus meet clear support.

Oct 07 - Colombia's 2022 coffee output could hit lowest since 2014 

- Colombia's coffee production this year is set to fall to an eight year low, with a drop in plantation renovations and in the use of fertilisers storing up problems for future crops, an industry leader told Reuters. The expected drop in the harvest to around 12 million 60-kilogram bags, potentially the lowest since 2014, is due to strong rains caused by the La Nina weather phenomenon as well as climate change, Roberto Velez, boss of Colombia's national coffee federation, said in an interview late on Wednesday.  

Oct 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

 - Speculative buying, mainly against the March 23 position in LDN, added to the market yesterday. The March 23 traded to highs of GBP 1935, levels we last saw in May 2020. As is so typical of the current run, the market then corrected sharply in the late afternoon and the March 23 ended the day "only" GBP +7 at GBP 1911. The uptrend line and resistance around GBP 1930 thus remains intact.

- The increased buying interest in March 23 led to the Dec / March spread converging to GBP +55. However, the structure remains clearly inverse and should provide support.

- Price coverage in the industry has declined by a further 3-4 weeks as of the end of September and is now around 8.5 months. A long, technically speaking, correction in LDN would thus meet clear support. Have a good weekend.

Oct 06 - Turkish hazelnut crop estimate downgraded (IHSmarkit)

- 2022-23 production projected at 680,000 tonnes, 11% less than the Turkish government forecast
- Ferrero’s official price: TRY43-45/kg

- The USDA has downgraded to 680,000 tonnes the Turkish hazelnut crop in the 2022-23 season, 11% less than the official estimate released by the ministry of agriculture.

- Turkish farmers are gradually lifting the average yield, although not as much as the government estimated.

- The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) is delaying purchases, making growers sell their crops to private trader with prices lower than the ones fixed by the former.

- Ferrero is the largest purchaser, buying one third of the total crop. Ferrero is currently paying TRY43-45/kg ($2.31-2.42/kg), slightly lower than the price of TRY48/kg fixed by the TMO.

- There are approximately 500,000 producers and 4 million people directly or indirectly employed by hazelnut production in Turkey on around 725,000 hectares. Currently, average yield is clearly below its potential, as most growers own very old trees and they are not maintaining them appropriately.

Oct 06 - Favourable weather to raise Chinese walnut and almond productions, USDA estimates (IHSmarkit)

- 2022-23 walnut production projected at 1.4 million (in-shell) tonnes, 27% more y/y
- 2022-23 almond crop forecast to increase by 24% y/y to 52,000 (kernel) tonnes

- China’s commercial walnut production is expected to increase by 27% year-on-year to 1.4 million tonnes (in-shell basis) in the 2022-23 season thanks to favourable weather in Xinjiang, the main origin, according to the USDA in its latest market update.

- The Chinese production fell by 20% y/y in the 2021-22 season due to frosts in Xinjiang. The overall crop may be much higher than the commercial, particularly in mountainous regions of Yunnan (south west), where many farmers do not harvest due to high labour costs and the inconsistent quality of walnuts as trees are very old.

- The current farmer gate price is CNY14/kg ($1.96/kg) in Xinjian, 15% less y/y. Meanwhile, the farmer gate price is around CNY12/kg ($1.68/kg), 8% more y/y.

Almonds

- China’s almond production is forecast to increase by 24% y/y to 52,000 tonnes (kernels) thanks to favourable weather in Shache county (Xinjiang), the main origin with 95% of the total planted acreage. The planted area has fallen by 4% y/y to 60,200 hectares as farmers are removing low-yield trees.

Oct 06 - Indian cumin seed prices stabilised at around INR24,000/quintal (IHSmarkit)

- 30% fall in exports
- Gradual fall in futures prices

- Indian cumin seed prices (spot and futures) are stabilised at around INR24,000/quintal. India’s cumin seed spot prices averaged INR24,307 ($298.3) per quintal at the Unjha market (Gujarat, North West) on 4 September 2022, 1% less month-on-month and 66% more y/y.

- Cumin seed exports reached 134,770 tonnes valued at $342.9 million in January-August 2022, 30% less y/y in volume and 10% less in value, according to customs data.

- Bangladesh and China were the main importers of whole coriander (95% of the exported volume), accounting for 24% and 19%, respectively.

- India’s 2021-22 cumin seed crop is expected to plummet to around 725,000 tonnes (-9% less y/y) on 1.03 million hectares, 5% less y/y as farmers cut planted hectares after prices hit rock-bottom in the previous season.

Oct 06 - EU sugar production to fall in 2022/23 (IHSmarkit)

- European Union sugar production is forecast to fall by 6.9% in the 2022/23 season to 15.5 million tonnes following a drop in planted area and widespread lack of rainfall. The drought led to a drop in sugar beet yields of 4% while the planted area also decreased by 4%. Consumption of sugar rose in 2021/22 by 5.6% to 16.8 million tonnes but is forecast to fall in 2022/23 to 16.6 million (down 1.5%).

Oct 06 - Cocoa price increases as hurricane hits Dominican Republic production (IHSmarkit)

- December New York cocoa futures increased by USD32 to USD2,392 per tonne. March London futures gained GBP28 per tonne and finished at GBP1,904 per tonne. It was reported that Hurricane Fiona in the Dominican Republic had resulted in a loss of an estimated 4,000 tonnes (out of 77,000 tonnes produced in 21/22) of cocoa production.

Oct 06 - Ghana raises cocoa farmgate price by 21% (IHSmarkit)

- Ghana increased the guaranteed farmgate price for cocoa farmers to 12,800 cedis ($1,248.78) per tonne for the main crop of the 2022/23 season, up from 10,560 cedis for the last two seasons. This price is lower than the 900 CFA francs ($1.36) per kilogramme set by Ivory Coast last week.

- Cocoa production in Ghana is down sharply this year, at 689,000 tonnes on Sept. 1 after a previous forecast of 800,000 tonnes.

Oct 06 - Arabica coffee prices gain more than 2% on tight supply from Brazil and Colombia (IHSmarkit)

- Arabica coffee futures on ICE closed just over 2% higher on 5 October after falls in shipments from Brazil and Colombia kept supplies tight – this led to December trading at a premium to more distant contracts.
- According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), October 2021 to August 2022 shipments from Brazil fell 27.2% while Colombia’s fell by 18.7%. November robusta coffee was little changed at $2,173 a tonne.

Oct 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Continuing the upward movement for both Ldn and NY, speculative buying, short covering, origin fixing and another firmer British Pound vs. the US$ were the main price drivers in yesterday's trading. Mar Ldn23 exited its low at GBP 1873 early to close above GBP 1900 at GBP 1904 (GBP +28; +1.49%). Next resistance at GBP 1930.

- NY also closed up +28 at USD 2379 (+1.19%) for the Mar23 session. The firm front position led to a further increase in the Dec22/Mar23 spread, which reached a new high in the contract term at GBP +62.

- There were 2 major announcements on Wednesday at the start of the new crop year: New Ghana farmgate price: 12,800 Cedi (1,248.78USD/mt), up 21% but below IVC's 900 CFA (1,360USD/mt); risk of smuggling increases.

- The compensation to the Fairtrade minimum price ($2400) applicable as of now for all main crop cocoa bean exports is now 311.41USD/mt in IVC & Ghana.

Oct 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- With the fundamental market participants on hold, yesterday's trading day was characterised by speculative activities, which were probably mainly currency-related.

-A significantly firmer British pound vs. the US$ set the tone for the day right from the start. The March 23 LDN thus traded in a range of GBP 1865/1895, but ended the day almost unchanged at GBP -1 at GBP 1876. The Dec 22 / March 23 spread widened yesterday to a premium of GBP 49 / close GBP 47/45. The Dec 22 / Dec 23 spread is currently trading at almost a triple-digit premium, which should motivate one or two funds to remain long.

- The industry continues to wait, but should soon use this inverse structure to provide support for 23/24 in case of a further correction of the late dates.

- The rise in open interest in recent days suggests further longs for the time being, and the now firmer GBP has little to counter this (at least in the medium term).

Oct 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The first official trading day of the new 2022/23 crop again brought strong hedging pressure into the market. March 23 in London consequently corrected by GBP 37 at the peak to yesterday's low of GBP 1868. The 10-day moving average at GBP 1874 then provided good support, coupled with scattered price hedging by the industry. March close GBP 23 -28 at GBP 1877, back to last month's close.

- Commitment of Traders as of 27.09 shows an increase in the gross long position (managed money) in London of 7207 lots, while in NY the gross short position increased by 7853 lots. Both markets now hold a gross long position of 102,586 lots (highest since October last year) vs. a new record short position of 114,587 lots. If it still looks like a stalemate at the moment, the new figures (as of today's reporting deadline) may bring new insights.

Oct 03  - Sharp increase in the Spanish pistachio crop expected (IHSmarkit)

- Spain’s 2022-23 pistachio production projected at 18,000 tonnes, 8% more y/y

- The EU pistachio production is projected to reach a record of 23,940 tonnes in the 2022-23 season, up from 16,489 tonnes in the previous season, as Spanish orchards are coming into fruition with another record of 18,000 tonnes, 8% more y/y. Spanish planted area growth is maintaining a strong pace, being estimated at 61,231 hectares in 2021, 24% more y/y and three-fold more than in 2017. Around 16,725 hectares were harvested in 2021, leading the European supply. Meanwhile, the domestic consumption is expected to fall by 2% y/y to 120,940 tonnes due to higher prices as a consequence of higher prices in an inflation scenario.
- Imports are forecast to fall by 2,000 tonnes y/y to around 100,000 tonnes in the 2022-23 season.
- The main 2021-22 suppliers were the US and Iran, accounting for 69% and 25%, respectively.

Oct 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The end of the month, quarter and cocoa year, also gave us another volatile trading day. March 22 LDN initially came under pressure, triggered by origin price hedges, and traded to lows of GBP 1885, only to encounter further good (currency) support. March 23 then traded to highs of GBP 1919, closing almost unchanged at GBP +4 at GBP 1905.

- The again weakening US$ added a little more to NY, reinforcing the mini uptrend currently there. Closing price March 23 US$ +26 at US$ 2340.

- The CCC increased the farmgate price from CFA 825 to CFA 900 for the main harvest now underway. Opening today March 23 GBP +2 / 1907 , EUR / GBP 0.874 GBP / US$ 1.121.

- We wish you a happy German Unification Day and above all a good and successful new cocoa year 2022/23.