Softs News

Oct 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Further long liquidations and the strong British pound brought the prices under pressure from the beginning. The Mar 22 left the previous day's lows behind and found support around GBP 1760, then ended the day 9 points down at GBP 1768. With moderate participation (21k lots) and low range (GBP 14), the consolidation of the last few days thus continued also yesterday. The Dec/Mar21 spread continues to be under pressure and traded at a new low of GBP -25 discount (close -20), coming from GBP +50 at the beginning of the month.

Oct 26 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- While it looked, at least in the morning, as if cocoa would continue to move south at a leisurely pace (lows GBP 1760 / March 22), it was not until the afternoon that activity set in. March 22 recovered firmly from the lows, marked by further price hedging by the industry, and ended the day slightly up (GBP +5) at GBP 1777.

- The Commitment of Traders figures as of 19.10 show a picture that could not be more contradictory. In NY, Managed Money shed almost 20k lots (12k lots of lonq liquidations / 8K lots of fresh shorts), while the specs in London added almost 4K lots of new longs and "only" 2K lots of fresh speculative shorts. The net long position across all categories is now 130,784 lots

Oct 25 - 'Containergeddon' drives sugar, cocoa, coffee shippers back to bulk vessels 

Food traders are switching from containers back to dry bulk vessels to transport refined sugar and rice, hoping to avoid shipping delays caused by container shortages and port congestion that the industry is calling "containergeddon", according to traders. Container-based transportation has been hit by sky-high costs and delays amid booming shipping demand, while container terminals at ports struggle to deal with the flow. 

Oct 23  - Low prices in Tanzania’s initial cashew auctions (IHSmarkit)

- Two-week timeframe between auction ends and raw cashew nuts are collected in warehouses
- Importers are authorised to visit warehouses before launching offers

- Tanzania’s raw cashew auctions started in the second week of October with prices ranging from $0.9-1.1/kg, far from the government goal of $1.2-1.4/kg as the average quality is expected to be very high, the president of the Cashew Board of Tanzania (CBT), Francis Alfred, explained during a meeting with Indian and Vietnamese processors on 21 October. However, he was optimistic about sales from November onwards. “Processors and retailers must replenish their stocks and they will raise bids despite sea shipping fares reaching $40,000-43,000/40 ft-container in East Africa ports,” Alfred explained.

Dar es-Salam port is collapsed, exports suffering delayed shipping services

“Government is encouraging to contract shipments in Mtware (South) to temper collapse in Dar es-Salam. There is a two-week timeframe between auctions finishing and the product being collected in warehouses,” he added.
- The government has developed transparent policies to encourage importers to purchase 2021-22 crop, after being under fire when the government decided to purchase all the domestic production in 2018, using army to secure harvesting.
“Importers are allowed to visit warehouse to check product quality before launching offers in the auctions,” the executive director of the Tanzanian Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture (TCCIA), Fatuma Hamisi, concluded.

Oct 22 - Market Briefing: Cocoa (IHSmarkit)

- North American Q3 cocoa grindings saw 4.34% y/y rise
- Cocoa processing in Asia increased by 4.1% y/y
- Brazil’s cocoa deliveries up 29% y/y for 2021/22’s mid-crop arrivals

Production
- Brazil’s cocoa deliveries rose by 29% y/y for 2021/22’s mid-crop arrivals (May to September), to 132,382 tonnes, whilst cocoa processing was up 14% y/y, to 92,899 tonnes, reported the National Association of Cocoa Processing Industries (AIPC). The state of Bahia’s deliveries soared by 73% y/y, to 94,534 tonnes, offsetting Pará’s lower numbers, 24% down y/y to 34,371 tonnes.
- Arrivals at Ivory Coast’s ports slipped by 15.8% y/y by the second full week of the 2021/22 season, reaching 186,000 tonnes by October 17, up 101,000 tonnes in weekly volumes.

Demand
- North American cocoa grindings saw an 4.34% y/y rise in Q3 2021 reaching 123,399 tonnes, up by 5,135 tonnes from the same period a year earlier, when they sank to a 12-year low. Volumes were lower quarter-on-quarter (Q2 123,719 tonnes) and below expectations of +6.6% y/y. However, figures were 3.6% higher than in the same period in 2019 (123,208 tonnes), before the pandemic.
- Cocoa processing in Asia increased by 4.1% from a year earlier in its Q3 2021 figures, though volumes dropped compared to Q2 on transport problems. Grindings reached 210,970 tonnes in the July to September period, compared to the 10% y/y drop seen in Q3 2020. However, quarter on quarter, Asian cocoa processing fell by 4.5% compared to Q2’s 10-year high seen back in July and were below expectations of +5.5% y/y.

Trade
- Ecuadorian cocoa exports in 2021 are expected to be above 385,000 tonnes, reach 500,000 tonnes by 2025 and 1 million by the end of the decade.
- During the 9 months of 2021, Brazil exported 40,516 tonnes of cocoa by-products, increasing by 13% y/y. In September, Argentina (54%), Chile (19%), and the US (14%) stood among the main importers of cocoa derivatives from Brazil.

Price
Cocoa futures were under pressure this week on improved weather in West Africa, with New York cocoa falling to a two-month nearest-futures low and London cocoa sliding to a 1½-month low. However by Thursday’s close (October 21), cocoa prices posted moderate gains after Rabobank said it expects total 2021/22 African cocoa production to fall -6% y/y and sees a small global cocoa deficit for 2021/22. December New York cocoa gained $50 settling at $2,555 a tonne, while March London cocoa settled up £12, or at £1,772 per tonne.

Oct 22  - Market Briefing: Sugar (IHSmarkit)

- Chinese sugar imports surged to 870,000 tonnes in September 2021
- Vietnam is expected to produce 873,000 tonnes of sugar in 2021/22
- Mexico announced a maximum sugar quota to the US for 2021/22 at 688,308 tonnes

Production
- Russian Farmers harvested 28 million tonnes of sugar beet from 722,600 ha as of 20 October, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. This represents 71.8% of the 1,006,100 ha sown this year. This compares with 25.4 million tonnes of beet harvested from 705,800 ha as of the same day last year. The data suggest a rise of the average beet yield to 38.7 tonnes per ha from 36.0 a year ago.
- Vietnam is expected to produce 873,000 tonnes of sugar in 2021/22, up from a record low 690,000 tonnes in 2020/21, according to the Vietnam Sugar and Sugarcane Association (VSSA). The increase is partly supported by increased protection measures for the domestic sugar industry.

Demand
- China's (official) sugar imports surged to 870,000 tonnes in September 2021 from 540,000 in the same month last year. They were also above August's 500,000 tonnes, official data showed. This brought total sugar imports in the now-completed 2020/21 (October/September) season to a record 6.3 million tonnes, up significantly from 3.758 million a year ago.
- The Bangladeshi customs authority reduced regulatory duty to 20% from 30%. However, the import duty on raw sugar, now at BDT3,000 per tonne, along with a 15% VAT and 3% advance tax, remains unchanged, said an NBR official.

Trade
- The Ministry of Economy of Mexico announced on 20 October the amount of the maximum sugar quota to the US for 2021/22 (October/September) at 688,308 tonnes.
- The state-run Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 50,000 tonnes of white sugar which closed on 13 October. The TCP has also issued a new tender for 50,000 tonnes of bagged white sugar, trade sources said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the new tender is 25 October.

Price
Raw sugar futures saw some strong losses this week as funds were continuing to liquidate long positions amid limited buying. On Tuesday (October 19), the March delivery contract shed another 48 points to settle at 18.87 cents per pound, with the intraday low being the market's lowest level since late September at 18.82 cents per pound. By Thursday, futures in New York ended with minor losses, giving up part of the previous session’s gains. March delivery ended down 3 points at 18.94 cents per pound.

Oct 22  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- China’s dried grape crop to double thanks to favourable weather and the end of Covid-19 restrictions
- Global hazelnut consumption is expected to rise by 11% thanks to post-pandemic recovery
- The US pistachio industry started the season with record sales of 36,210 (short) tons

Production
- The 2021-22 global hazelnut output is forecast to reach 1.15 million (in-shell tonnes), 7% more y/y, due to increasing crops in Italy and Turkey.
- The 2021-22 global sweetened dried cranberry production is expected to reach 204,820 tonnes, stagnant y/y and y 6% down on the previous forecast, after summer rains increased unusable fruit in the US and Canada. The US production is expected to reach 204,820 tonnes, stagnant y/y and 6% less than the previous forecast. Meanwhile, Canada and Chile are expected to reach 35,240 tonnes (-9% y/y) and 12,340 tonnes (+13% y/y), respectively.
- China’s 2021-22 dried grape crop is expected to double y/y to 200,000 tonnes, upgrading the previous forecast by 82% thanks to favourable weather and the end of Covid-19 restrictions in Xinjian, the main origin.

Demand
- The 2021-22 global hazelnut consumption is expected to increase by 11% y/y to 1.16 million tonnes thanks to the post-pandemic recovery.
- Domestic and international recovery is fuelling Chinese dried grape sales although abundant supply is tempering bullish trends in the short term.

Trade
- US pistachio sales started the 2021-22 season with a record of 36,210 (short) tons, doubling y/y shipments. Domestic sales were 8,460 tons, 7% more y/y. Exports reached 27,750 tons, up from 10,210 tons in September 2020.
- Chilean walnut exports reached 20,900 in-shell equivalent tonnes in September 2021, 30% more y/y, according to the Chilean Walnut Association (Chilenut). Seasonal (21 March-30 September) shipments totalled 119,260 tonnes, 18% more.
- Vietnam’s cashew exports rose by 1% y/y to 53,650 tonnes, bringing the seasonal sales to 449,540 tonnes (+20% y/y).
- California’s raisin shipments were 19,480 (short) tons this September, -16% y/y, bringing seasonal (August-September) to 40,450 tons, -9% y/y.

Price
- Vietnamese trading sources reported that many buyers accepted prices for WW320 cashews of around $3.05-3.07/lb fob from good quality packers. Small packers are keeping at $3.00/lb.
- Mexico’s pecan harvest has started with farmgate prices ranging from MX$65-70/kg ($3.20-3.45/kg) for Fina variety.

Oct 22 - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- US green coffee stocks fell by 107,561 60-kg bags in September
- Nestlé’s sales in nine months of 2021 rose 8% y/y owed to demand growth in coffee
- Ugandan coffee exports in September totaled 585,575 60-kilo bags

Production
US green coffee stocks in port warehouses fell by 107,561 60-kg bags during September 2021 to reach 6,022,923 bags at the end of the month, according to the Green Coffee Association (GCA). This was the first drop in three months. The data includes both the coffee at ICE exchange warehouses and volumes kept by other market participants at US ports. Stocks were down 5.9% from 6,402,065 bags at the same time in 2020.

Demand
Nestlé’s sales in nine months of 2021 rose 8% y/y, thanks to demand growth in coffee. Total group reported sales reached CHF63.3 billion, up 2.2% y/y, thanks to improved performance across most geographic regions. Organic growth in developed markets was 7% y/y, while emerging markets saw an 8% y/y growth. By product category, the largest growth contributor was coffee on strong momentum in Nescafé, Nespresso and Starbucks brands, with the latter of the three posting a 16% y/y increase to CHF2.2 billion.

Trade
Ugandan coffee exports in September 2021 totalled 585,575 60-kilo bags, up from 505,581 bags in the same month last year, the state-run Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) said. Shipments were slightly below UCDA’s projection of 600,000 bags issued when the August data were released. This brought total coffee exports in 2020/21 (October/September) to 6,494,691 bags, up 21.2% from 5,359,570 a year ago. Robusta exports were up 32.2% at 5,807,797 bags from 4,394,629, while arabica shipments dropped 28.9% to 686,894 bags from 965,341.

Price
- Arabica coffee futures posted losses this week as widespread rains in Brazil will likely take some steam out of the market for now, after prices climbed last week to 215.15 cents per pound. However, after recovering midweek, by Thursday (October 21), December arabica contract settled down 2.25 cents at 203.30 cents per pound.
- Kenyan coffee prices averaged KES33,440 per 50-kg bag during the most-recent auction, down from KES34,430 in the preceding one, said the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE), in line with the weaker qualities offered by growers as the current crop season comes to an end.
- Farmers in Vietnam’s Central Highlands sold beans at VND39,400-41,800 ($1.73-1.84) per kg, little changed from last week’s VND39,700-42,000 range.

Oct 22  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- Hurricane Grace has severely reduced pimento production
- Ethiopian sesame seed exports 26% down for the January-August 2021 period
- French honey production substantially reduced by adverse weather

Production

- Mexico’s 2021 pimento crop is thought be down to about 4,000-5,000 tonnes from the 8,000-9,000 tonnes in normal years, due to severe damage from Hurricane Grace this August. The global pimento situation is worsened by the fact that Guatemala’s crop was also badly hit, as was Honduras. In a normal production situation Guatemala’s crop can amount to 1,500-2,000 tonnes, but this year it is thought that the output is only 600-700 tonnes. The Honduras crop is believed to be no more than 400 tonnes. Jamaica’s pimento output is reducing each year and now amounts to 300 tonnes at most.
- The 2020-21 (October-September) Ethiopian sesame seed crop is expected to fall by 9% year-on-year to 255,000 tonnes due to a cut in acreage, as many farmers are switching to other products such as sorghum due to rising demand in food crops after the Covid-19 pandemic restrictions hit grocery supply chains.
- France’s 2021 honey output is expected to fall by two thirds (7,000-9,000 tonnes), a record low, due to frosts, rains and winds. Acacia, rosemary, thyme, heather, chestnut, pine and heather honey supply is virtually zero as the flowering season was too short. Lavender honey is the only variety with an abundant supply.

Demand

- European spice traders this week reported strong demand from all parts of the world for pimento from Mexico.
- France’s massively reduced honey crop is expected to prompt a major need for imports (see Trade below).
- Freight issues have hampered purchases of Ethiopian sesame seed (see Trade below).

Trade

- Ethiopian sesame seed exports reached 125,380 tonnes, worth $186 million, 26% less y/y in volume and 27% less in value, in January-August 2021. The main importers of Ethiopian sesame were the UAE, Israel and Singapore, accounting for 28%, 27% and 11%, respectively, of the total volume.
- Export data confirmed that Ethiopia’s industry is being hit by a logistical bottleneck due to container shortage in Djibouti port and civil conflict in Tigray.
- France’s imports of honey are expected to reach record high levels as this origin has a massively reduced crop and its annual domestic consumption averages around 40,000 tonnes.
- Indian turmeric exports reached 90,130 tonnes, worth $127.1 million, in January-July 2021, 13% less y/y in volume and 10% more in value. The main importers were Bangladesh, the UAE and the US, taking 20%, 13% and 6%, respectively, of the total volume.

Price
- Mexican pimento is currently commanding prices of around $6,000/tonne cif northwest Europe, having moved up from $3,300-3,400 per tonne cif northwest Europe a few months ago.
- Ethiopian sesame seed prices averaged $1,464/tonne fob Djibouti in October in the week ending on 17 October, 4% more than in September and 8% more than in August.
- France’s increased purchases of honey are expected to result in high prices on this item.
- The Indian spot fob turmeric price reached INR7,016.65 per quintal ($93.4/quintal) at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, south central) on 13 October, 3% less than on 14 September.

Oct 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Despite a range of GBP 24 / March 22 after all, it was a tedious day in cocoa. Good buying interest from the industry in the morning saw highs of GBP 1779, only for long liquidations from specs / funds to put pressure on the market afterwards. The end result is a gain of GBP +12 and a close of GBP 1772. Hardly any significant report from the origin at the moment, the next arrivals and especially the first shipments are eagerly awaited.

Oct 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Good selling pressure after slightly firmer opening brought prices around GBP 25 south to lows of GBP 1787 in the 2nd month Mar22. No significant support was found here for the rest of the day, and the Mar22 contract was thus able to close below the psychological support of GBP 1800 as well as leave the 50-day moving average behind. Technically, the way would be clear for a continuation of the correction at the level of the late September lows around GBP 1770, the British pound continues to be relatively firm, and fundamentally, at least in terms of weather, the outlook for the current crop continues to be good, coming from worrying sentiment in the rather dry spring. The structure, albeit still inverted at a premium of GBP 25 Dec 21/De22, came under further pressure, and the front spread also continued to lose ground, as in previous days, trading at GBP -15. 

Oct 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- At the start of the week, both markets allowed themselves a breather and remained where the past week ended. Just 18k lots changed hands with a range of GBP 25 in 2nd month Mar 22. That found support again around GBP 1800 after initial weakness, and ultimately closed unchanged at GBP 1819 (+3). Consolidation, probably also in view of the grinding figures. Because looking closely, these are just 0.23% above the levels of 2018/19, so before the pandemic, ECA and USA here even declining.

- What else? The structure has recovered significantly in the wake of the weakness seen recently and has converged to GBP 69 basis Mar22 / Mar 23. Côte d'Ivoire is closed today for holiday, but yesterday reported positive crop prospects. So far, however, arrivals as of the end of the week are lagging last year by a scant 16% at 185,000mt.

Oct 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The overall mixed week in terms of market movement, grind figures and currency ended weak. Again, London sought and found support at the lows of the previous trading day around GBP 1804 basis Mar 22, but met buying interest there and closed 4 points down at GBP 1816. Certainly, the British Pound plays a not insignificant role here, which continues to trade as firm against EUR and USD as last in February 2020 (GBP 0.8427 to EUR).

- To counteract the threat of inflation, the Bank of England is coming under pressure to raise interest rates, which is attracting speculative buyers. Committments of Traders show an overall slight reduction of the net long position to around 143k lots / Managed Money on balance -1.4k lots (80k) - with an opposite movement of both markets, probably arbitrage-driven (NY -4.5k / London +3k lots). Meanwhile, in the IVC, ex-president Laurent Gbagbo is founding a new party.

Oct 15  - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- Brazil’s green coffee exports fell by 29.6% y/y to 2.748 million 60-kilo bags
- EU coffee imports totaled 26.9 million bags in the first half of 2021
- Colombia coffee farmers fail to deliver up to 1 million bags of beans this year

Production
Coffee farmers in Colombia have failed to deliver up to 1 million bags of beans this year or nearly 10% of the country's crop, leaving exporters, traders and roasters facing steep losses. Colombian farmers say they will deliver the coffee later this year or next but buyers are unconvinced. Global trade houses are looking at losses of $8-10 million each on undelivered coffee, while Colombia's coffee growers federation FNC, which represents farmers but also accounts for 20% of the country's 12.5 million bags of annual coffee exports, faces higher losses.

Demand
Total EU imports of green, roast & ground and soluble coffee in the first half of 2021 totaled 26.9 million bags, down a further 2.7% from 27.7 million bags in the first half 2020 and 27.8 million bags of 2019. Imports of green coffee into the EU in the first half of 2021 were 24.1 million bags. This figure is significantly below 24.8 million bags of first half 2020 and also below 24.97 million bags of first half 2019. The Colombian Milds Group exported 1.71 million bags to the EU in first half 2021. This was below the 1.77 million in the first half 2020. In first half 2021 the group had a market share of 7.1% of all green coffee imports, practically unchanged from 7.2% a year ago and compared with 7.8% in first half 2019.

Trade
Brazil’s exports of green coffee fell by 29.6% y/y in September 2021 to around 2.7 million 60-kilo bags, exporters association Cecafe said, as shipping difficulties continued to hamper the commodity's flow. Exports of arabica coffee, the milder variety, fell by 24.9% to 2.4 million bags, while shipments of robustas, the type used in blends and by the instant coffee industry, dropped 51.8% to only 326,045.

Price

Arabicas revisited late July's six-and-a-half year peak this week, as concerns over tighter supplies prevailed with stock exchanges continuing a pullback. The benchmark December arabica coffee contract settled up 8.90 cents at 213.15 cents per pound in dealings between 202.60 and 215.15 cents on October 12. The latter was only marginally below the 215.20 cents hit in late July. Dealers said there was talk that global freight issues have sparked a run on coffee stocks as demand holds firm. They noted ICE certified arabica stocks are down 11.5% since the beginning of September.

Oct 15  - Market Briefing: Sugar (IHSmarkit)

- Brazil’s CS crushed 35.7 million tonnes of sugar cane in the second half of September
- China’s 2022 sugar import quota was set at 1.945 million tonnes
- Russia is expected to export 350,000-400,000 tonnes of sugar this season

Production
- Sugar mills in Brazil’s Centre/South region crushed 35.7 million tonnes of sugarcane in the second half of September, down 11.1% below the 40.3 million tonnes in the same period last year, UNICA data showed. This brought total cane processing since the start of the season on 1 April to 467.4 million tonnes, down 6.9% from 401.8 million by the same time last year.
- France’s Farm Ministry raised its outlook for the 2021/22 sugar beet to 34 million tonnes from 33.1 million a month ago. This would be 29.6% above last year’s poor harvest, but still 8.3% below the five-year average.

Demand
China’s 2022 sugar import quota was set at 1.945 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous year, the Commerce Ministry said. Quota volumes are assessed at a 15% import tariff, and, according to a notice on the ministry’s website, 70% of the quota will be allocated to state-owned firms. The tariff on out-of-quota imports is 50%. From 2017-2020, China imposed an additional safeguard duty on top of the out-of-quota rate. This safeguard measure was lifted in May 2020 and the out-of-quota tariff has since returned to 50% from 85%. Instead, all out-of-quota sugar imports are now subject to an automatic import licensing system.

Trade
Russia is expected to export 350,000-400,000 tonnes of sugar this season, according to industry sources. This was the result of low sugar stocks which had dropped to 522,000 tonnes at the end of August from 1.4 million twelve months earlier. In 2020/21, Russia had exported 440,000 tonnes and in 2019/20 1.5 million. The tight supplies are supporting local prices which is also making exports less attractive.

Price
Raw sugar futures in New York fell back below the psychological 20 cent level again this week, amid continuing uncertainty over the state of the world economy. Most-active March raw sugar lost 0.21 cent to 19.86 cents per pound on October 13, after trading in a 19.83 to 20.15 cent range. May was down 0.19 cent at 19.43 cents, and the rest of the board ended down 0.16 to up 0.02 cent in volume of 80,205 lots. In London, the December white sugar contract shed $2.90 to $514.10 a tonne. March was down $4.80 at $510.20, and the outer months ended $1.20 to $5.30 lower in volume of 8,565 lots.

Oct 15 - Market Briefing: Cocoa (IHSmarkit)

-  Ivory Coast cocoa port arrivals 19.8% lower during the first full week of the 2021/22 cocoa season
- Europe’s Q3 cocoa grind increased by 8.7 % y/y to 375,811 tonnes
- Nicaragua’s cocoa exports saw a 21% y/y increase to 13.5 million kilos Jan-Aug 2021

Production
- Cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast’s ports were lower during the first full week of the 2021/22 cocoa season, with volumes reaching 85,000 tonnes between October 1-10. This was down 19.8% from 106,000 tonnes over the same period last season. About 38,000 tonnes of beans were delivered to Abidjan port and 47,000 tonnes to San Pedro during this period.
- Meanwhile, Ghana’s own graded and sealed cocoa arrivals stood at 1.04 million tonnes by September 16 since the start of the season on October 1, 2020, up from 775,000 tonnes the previous season, figures from cocoa marketing board COCOBOD also showed.

Demand
- Europe’s Q3 cocoa grind increased by 8.7 % from a year earlier to 375,811 tonnes, compared to Q3 2020’s 345,730 tonnes, the European Cocoa Association (ECA) indicated in its latest report. Germany’s Q3 2021 cocoa grind rose 16.35% on the year to 108,615 tonnes, the German confectionery industry association BDSI also said.
- Ivory Coast cocoa grinders processed 556,000 tonnes of beans by the end of September since the start of the season on October 1, 2020, down from 559,000 tonnes over the same period last season, data from the exporters' association GEPEX showed. Grinding reached 50,000 tonnes in September, up from 45,000 tonnes in the same month the previous year.

Trade
- Nicaragua’s cocoa exports saw a 21% y/y increase to 13.5 million kilos (13,500 tonnes) between January and August 2021, compared to 1.1 million in the same period in 2020, according to preliminary figures from the government’s centre for exports (Cetrex). Up until August, cocoa exports generated $49.2 million a 30.5% increase compared to the same period in 2020, which totaled $37.7 million dollars.
- Meanwhile, Nigeria’s August cocoa exports surged more than +700% y/y to 20,873 tonnes.

Price
Cocoa futures were generally bearish this week, driven by a stronger US dollar, which saw it rally to a new one-year high. By Wednesday (October 13), cocoa prices had moved lower for a third day, with New York cocoa posting a two-week low. December New York cocoa closed down $73 to $2,602 a tonne, having hit its lowest in nearly two weeks at $2,588. Meanwhile, December London cocoa settled £37 lower to £1,819 per tonne.

Oct 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- Continuous selling pressure, driven by the third weak performance from NY, also put pressure on prices yesterday. The March 22 in LDN traded to lows of GBP 1802, levels that were welcomed with open arms by the industry as we are back in the September range. Closing price then almost unchanged at GBP -1 at GBP 1820.

- Malaysian grinding numbers love below expectations with a gain of 3.44% and compared to Pre-Covid 2019, these stand at -4%. The full Asian figures will round out the picture today accordingly. The North American figures are well below expectations at +4.35% but at least almost identical to Q3 2019.

Oct 15 - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- 30% increase in the Spanish saffron crop thanks to acreage expansion
- 25% growth in Canadian hempseed exports
- 5% fall in Indian guar gum prices

Production
- Spain’s saffron harvest will start in the second week of October. The planted area has increased by 10% to 135 hectares compared with the initial estimate of 122 hectares. The 2021-22 crop is expected to reach 600 kilos, unchanged from the previous estimate and 30% more than in the previous season thanks to favourable rains and warm temperatures in the blooming period.
- Canada’s hempseed commercial crop totalled 37,500 tonnes on 60,670 hectares in 2020, according to the Canadian Hemp Trade Alliance (CHTA). CHTA plans to reach 199,000 tonnes on 213,000 hectares in 2030 thanks to the strong demand from food and beverage processors.

Demand
- Industry sources confirmed a strong recovery in demand for spices during Fruit Attraction (Madrid, 5-7 October) and Anuga (Cologne, 9-13 October) fairs although attendance at both events halved compared with previous events due to Covid-19 restrictions. Spice traders confirmed that most attendants were negotiating long-term deals with exhibitors as they need to secure supply before the Christmas festivities in Europe.
- Weak demand due to China’s Golden Week (1-7 October) festival and power cuts in processing plants have halved spot prices for 40-ft sea container services on the routes between Chinese and US ports.

Trade
- India’s guar gum exports rose by 6% y/y in volume to 121,140 tonnes and were stagnant in value at $155.7 million. The US, Russia and Germany accounted for 29%, 15% and 13%, respectively, of total exports.
- Canada’s hempseed exports reached C$125 million ($100.2 million) in 2020, a quarter more y/y.

Prices
- India’s guar gum spot price was INR10,190 per quintal ($136.1/quintal) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 08 October, 5% less than on 9 September.
- Global hempseed prices range between $2,750-2,900/tonne exw for cleaned 99.5% purity product (Canada-EU-China), far from the record level of $4,100/tonne reached in previous years. Industry sources revealed that this price level is encouraging for developing new CBD products and expanding processing capacity.

Oct 15  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

-  31% decline in world pistachio output
- Peru set for average sized Brazil nut crop
- US almond shipments slow down in September

Production
- The global 2021-22 pistachio crop is expected to fall by 31% y/y to 729,300 tonnes.The US pistachio output is expected to decline by 16% y/y to 1 million pounds (453,000 tonnes).
 - Iran’s pistachio crop is forecast at 145,000 tonnes (-40% y/y) while Turkey’s production might reach 90,000 tonnes, down from 302,000 tonnes in the 2020-21 season and very far from its potential in an ‘off-year’ due to rain scarcity.
- Rains caused delays to peanut harvesting in a number of the key US producing states over the week to October 10, but the latest USDA US peanut crop update showed that on average 28% of the crop was harvested as of October 10 versus 8% at the same stage a year ago.
- The US hazelnut planted area has reached around 60,000 acres and its crop is set to cross the 40,000 tonnes level annually, IHS Markit discovered at the Anuga trade fair this week. Oregon is still the main origin although other states, such as Washington,are starting to expand production.
- Peru’s 2022 crop of Brazil nuts is expected to be average (50,000-60,000 tonnes), after a disappointing crop in 2021 due to drought in the Amazon rainforest.

Demand
- US almond shipments to Asian destinations remain significant but a decline in overall seasonal volumes (August-September 2021) is indicative of continued logistical issues at ports in the US and elsewhere.
- Global pistachio consumption is forecast at 840,300 tonnes for 2021-22 despite supply being forecast to fall by 9% y/y to 1.11 million tonnes due to falling crops in the US and Iran.

Trade
- US almond shipments slowed last month with the result that cumulative total US almond shipments (domestic and export) for the first two months of the current season were 435 million lbs versus 454 million lbs in the same period of 2020-21 – a dip of 4%.
- On the export front, US west coast port operations and ports in many countries are still severely compromised by vessel and other logistical issues.

Price
- Peru’s Brazil nut prices are expected to be steady at $9/kg in the 2022 crop. Brazil nut prices closed September 2021 at $6.9/pound exw, according to IHS Markit.
- Despite an upturn in offers Vietnamese cashew prices are declining slowly, mostly remaining around $3.00-3.10 per pound fob. Moreover, continued good demand for WS, LP and SP types has meant that prices on these were stable or even increased.

Oct 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- The firm opening, as a first reaction to the positive grinding figures, was only short-lived. Then reality (comparisons to 2019/2020) probably hit home for some, here especially funds / spec. March 22 crashed GBP 36 to trade at lows of GBP 1819. Increased industry price hedging, primarily for the 22/23 dates, provided the appropriate support. March 22 close GBP -34 at GBP 1821. GBP 1800 / second month should provide further industry support.

- The National Association of Ivorian Producers (ANAPROCI) called for a strike/blockade of ports yesterday. They are demanding payment of about 17 billion CFA (about US$ 29 million) in promised covid support from the CCC. So far there have been no major disruptions, but the situation should still be monitored.

Oct 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

 A lack of selling pressure led to further consolidation in the markets yesterday. The March 22 traded sluggishly with almost identical volume and range, ending the day almost unchanged at GBP -2 at GBP 1855. Grinding figures for Q3 21 vs. Q3 20: ECA (incl. GER) +8.7%, ECA net (excl. GER) +5.87%, Germany +16.35%, Ivory Coast +12.8%.  Germany in particular is well above expectations. The European figures are, despite the increase, at the rather lower end of expectations. If we exclude the pandemic year 2020, we see moderate growth of ECA +3.5%, GER +5.11% vs. Q3 2019. The North American and Asian figures are now eagerly awaited.

Oct 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The significant expansion of the speculative long position, as well as the reduction of the speculative shorts, in the last Commitment of Traders Report, had its impact on the start of the week yesterday (not entirely surprisingly). The March 22 in London corrected GBP 23 on the low (GBP 1850) and ended the day with a loss of GBP 16 at GBP 1857, but the London market was nowhere near keeping pace with NY. There, the March 22 lost $64 to end the day at $2725, bringing the arbitrage close to GBP 30. First arrivals in Ivory Coast as of 10.10 85,000mt vs 106,000 from last year (-19.8%). Excessively wet weather is probably hampering transport conditions at the moment, but it is still far too early in the season to interpret anything....

Oct 11 - Major coffee buyers face losses as Colombia farmers fail to deliver (Reuters)

- Traders say up to 1 mln bags of Colombia coffee crop undelivered
- Surging prices prompt farmers to renege on previously agreed sales
- Colombia coffee federation says delivery defaults widespread

- Coffee farmers in Colombia, the world's No. 2 arabica producer, have failed to deliver up to 1 million bags of beans this year or nearly 10% of the country's crop, leaving exporters, traders and roasters facing steep losses, industry sources told Reuters.
- World coffee prices have soared 55% this year, mainly due to adverse weather in top producer Brazil, prompting Colombian farmers to default on sales clinched when prices were much lower in order to re-sell the coffee at higher rates.
"Traders are getting defaulted on, it's a mess. If drought continues (in Brazil), 300 cents (per lb of coffee) is possible. It's going to be mayhem," said a dealer at a global agricultural commodities trade house.
He said leading global roasters are planning to change the branding on their 'single origin Colombia' coffees due to sourcing problems.
- Delivery defaults in a major producer like Colombia can exacerbate price spikes on world markets, although these would be temporary because the coffee ultimately exists and will weigh on markets once it is re-sold. Colombian farmers say they will deliver the coffee later this year or next but buyers are unconvinced. Many are opting to see losses now and write the purchases off as defaults rather than wait and risk even bigger losses if farmers still don't deliver next year and prices rise further, according to a senior trader at another global trade house.
He said several global trade houses are looking at losses of $8-10 million each on undelivered coffee, while Colombia's coffee growers federation FNC, which represents farmers but also accounts for 20% of the country's 12.5 million bags of annual coffee exports, faces higher losses.

Oct 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A weak British pound, only caused a slight runaway upwards in the morning. The March 22 then hovered around the highs of the previous trading day, ending the day GBP +12 at GBP 1873. The market continues to await the first arrivals from the new main crop and the Q3 2021 grinding figures, Europe starts on Wednesday, followed by North America and Asia. Commitment of Traders as of 05.10 show a significant increase in the net long position from 37,657 lots to 146,201 lots net long. Not surprising given an increase, in the last reporting period, of almost GBP 100 / US$ 200.

Oct 11 - Global sugar market grateful for India supply, once viewed as a threat

India may be the only country able to fill a looming global supply gap for sugar as the Brazilian crop ends, making the world's sugar market grateful for the Asian country that was once viewed as a threat to the market's stability. “Without India filling this gap, from November to March or 

April, the global sugar market would have a serious problem," said Paulo Roberto de Souza, the Chief Executive of Alvean Sugar SL, the world's largest sugar trader.

Oct 09  - Strong demand for pistachios despite falling crops in US and Iran (IHSmarkit)

- 31% fall in the global crop
- US carry-over stocks essential to match global consumption, especially in China

- The 2021-22 global pistachio consumption is forecast at 840,300 tonnes despite the fact that supply might fall by 9% y/y to 1.11 million tonnes due to falling crops in the US and Iran, according to the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council in its latest update.
- The global crop is expected to fall by 31% y/y to 729,300 tonnes, carry-over stocks, mainly from the US, feeding the appetite for pistachios.
- The US output is expected to decline by 16% y/y to 1 million pounds (453,000 tonnes). The 2021-22 season is an ‘off-year’ although weather and acreage expansion have favoured a production better than initial expectations.
- Iran and Turkey are also in ‘off-years’. Iran’s crop is forecast at 145,000 tonnes (-40% y/y). the new crop consists of about 40% Ahmad Aghaei, 30% Fandoghi, 15% Jumbo and 15% Akbari. Turkey’s production may reach 90,000 tonnes, down from 302,000 tonnes in the 2020-21 season and very far from its potential in an ‘off-year’ due to rain scarcity.
- Spain and Afghanistan are the only minor origins with rising crops. Spain is expected to grow by 50% y/y to 2,700 tonnes thanks to rising acreage, mainly organic. The Spanish production is focused on covering the domestic demand. Afghanistan may rise by 31% y/y to 5,900 tonnes as it is in an ‘on-year’. Afghanistan was exporting to India and Iran since the 2000’s due to geopolitical deals, the country suffering a bottleneck after the Taliban group came into power (August 2021).

09 Oct - Indian guar gum prices continue over INR10,000/quintal level (IHSmarkit)

- Slight correction in spot prices
- 6% growth in exports

- India’s guar gum spot price was INR10,190 per quintal ($136.1/quintal) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 08 October, 5% less than on 9 September.
- Indian exports rose by 6% y/y in volume to 121,140 tonnes and were stagnant in value at $155.7 million. The US, Russia and Germany accounted for 29%, 15% and 13%, respectively, of the total exported volume.

The daily futures market prices on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) were:
    Deliveries in September 2021 closed at INR0,370/quintal on 20 September, 3% less than on 23 Agust
    INR10,041/quintal for deliveries in October 2021 on 7 October, 2% less than on 8 September

Oct 08  - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- USDA forecasts a 14% increase in Ukraine’s walnut crop
- Mexico, Iran and Australia are increasing their nut market share in China
- Fall in Vietnamese cashew kernel prices this September

Production
- Ukraine’s 2021-22 walnut production is expected to reach 133,000 tonnes, 14% more y/y thanks to favourable weather conditions and rising irrigated acreage, according to the USDA.
- The 2021-22 global raw cashew nut (RCN) crop is expected to increase by 6% y/y to 3.95 million tonnes although Vietnam fell to 400,000 tonnes (-12% y/y), thanks to rising outputs in India and Ivory Coast, still the biggest origin, according to the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC).
- France’s prune crop estimate has been downgraded by 2,500 tonnes to 12,500 tonnes in the 2021-22 season (-62% y/y) and farming sources have confirmed a 2022 output of 35,000 tonnes (-50% y/y), favouring Californian sales with a total crop of 68,000 tonnes. In addition, Serbia, the second biggest European origin, has doubled y/y to 6,000 tonnes.

Demand
- Ukraine’s walnut consumption may fall by 6% y/y to 31,000 tonnes, after reaching a record of 33,000 tonnes in the 2020-21 season (+60% y/y), according to the USDA.
- The long-term crisis suffered by Ukraine after the Russian invasion of the Crimean Peninsula made domestic consumers focus on walnuts to substitute imports of almonds, hazelnuts and pistachios between 2018-2019. Economic recovery is favouring a new trend, cutting domestic walnut sales.

Trade
- China’s government is forcing the importing of nuts directly from origins, cutting purchases from re-exporters such as Vietnam and strengthening Mexico, Iran and Australia as nut suppliers against the US after the trade conflict started between the latter and the Asian country in 2018.
- Vietnamese stocks of raw cashew nuts (RCN) are at record levels, importing around 275,000 tonnes this August, despite weak purchases in the EU and the US.

Price
Vietnamese cashew prices declined late last month, averaging falls of USD0.20 per pound, Ho Chi Minh City-based Golden Bridge reported. The firm explained that this put prices around $3.05-3.15/lb fob. The slide in prices was not unexpected after continuous increases for many months and aggressive volumes of kernel exports.

Oct 08  - Market Briefing: Cocoa (IHSmarkit)

- Global cocoa surplus of 48,000 tonnes expected for 2021/22
- Cocoa powder sales steady despite higher prices in September
- Peru’s cocoa exports see 9% y/y growth

Production
A balanced market is envisaged for the new 2021/22 cocoa season, with IHS Markit expecting a surplus of 48,000 tonnes. World production is project at 5.05 million tonnes, while top producer Ivory Coast’s output is seen at 2.2 million tonnes. Ghana is forecast to produced 950,000 tonnes in 2021/22, an 8.7% fall compared to the previous season. This is a less drastic decline than expected by a recent Reuters poll, which forecast a 26.2% reduction. Although non-optimal weather may indeed reduce cocoa production, IHS Markit assumes that high-yielding trees and proper treatment will protect the local industry from the crop failure.

Demand
Global cocoa powder sales were steady, even amid concerns about rising prices during September. There were numerous requests for additional 2021 cocoa powder supplies, one trader said, although some processors were unable to meet those needs as they already had capacity sold out for the year. The focus in the powder market is now on securing 2022 coverage amid an overall firming market. One processor estimated it already had booked about 65% of its prospective 2022 production. Powder prices remained strong in September at 131.8 cents per pound, up 1 cent from August, according to IHS Markit.

Trade
Peruvian shipments of cocoa and its derivatives totaled $150.7 million in value between January and July of this year, up 9% compared to the same period in 2020 ($138.8 million), reported exporters association (ADEX). Cocoa exports up until to July, which includes beans, butter, chocolate and nibs, among others, were mainly shipped to the US ($36.1 million). Despite reducing its orders by -11% y/y, it accounted for 24% of the total shipped; followed by the Netherlands ($22.6 million), also seeing a fall (-10%) and taking 15% of the share.

Price
Cocoa futures witnessed rallies earlier on this week, driven by demand optimism and tighter supplies. Cocoa prices on Monday (October 4) saw New York cocoa at a 9¾-month high and London cocoa at a 6¾-month high. This was consolidated in the following session, though my midweek values dipped on a stronger dollar, with December New York cocoa closing down by $40 to $2,715 a tonne (October 6), and December London cocoa -£26 to £1,861.

Oct 08  - Market Briefing: Sugar (IHSmarkit)

- Philippines sugar production amounted to 21,872 tonnes by September 26
- Pakistan’s government stops sugar imports
- India’s 2020/21 sugar exports end at 7.2 million tonnes

Production
- Philippines sugar production in the week ended 26 September 2021 amounted to 21,872 tonnes, raw value, up from 12,489 in the same period a year ago, SRA data showed. This brought total production so far in 2021/22 to 59,805 tonnes, sharply up from 22,347 by the same time in 2020/21.
- Australian sugar cane crushing in the week to 3 October 2021 amounted to only 1.2 million tonnes, down from 1.472 million a week earlier and also below 1.483 million in the same week last year. Total is now at 19.8 million tonnes, down from 20.5 million by the same time a year ago.

Demand
- After allowing the opening up of a 50,000-tonne tender, Pakistan’s government has stopped importing more sugar, as existing stocks currently meet domestic requirements till the start of the crushing season on 15 November 2021. Total available stocks of sugar stand at 0.813 million tonnes, which is enough to cover local demand till 24 November, the Finance Ministry said.
- Russia’s raw sugar import duty falls 18% to $140 per tonne in October 2021, following firmer international prices, and will remain at this level in November.

Trade
The All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) said 7.2 million tonnes of sugar were exported in 2020/21 (October/September), up from 5.9 million in 2019/20 and also above the estimate of the Indian Sugar Mills Association which had pegged them at 7.1 million. Of the total, 785,000 tonnes were shipped without the government’s export subsidy.

Price
Raw sugar futures in New York posted modest losses by midweek amid good rains in key growing regions of Brazil’s Centre/South. While too late for this year’s crop, they will help improve the outlook for 2022/23. The first estimates of the 2022/23 sugarcane crop in the Centre/South expect a modest improvement to between 540 (Czarnikow) and 565 million tonnes (StoneX). Most-active March raw sugar lost 0.08 cent, or 0.4%, to 19.77 cents per pound on Wednesday (October 6) after trading in a narrow range of 19.65 to 19.87 cents. May was down 0.05 cent at 19.34 cents and the rest of the board ended unchanged to lower 0.14 cent in volume of 62,006 lots.

Oct 08  - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- Indonesian cloves crop disappoints
- Nutmeg and mace prices still on the rise
- Covid-19 has hampered pepper supply flows

Production
- Indonesia’s clove growers are close to finishing the harvest with a disappointing crop as plants are in an ‘off-year’. Indonesia reached a crop of around 130,000 tonnes in 2020.
- Madagascar’s cloves crop is expected to reach its potential of 11,000-12,000 tonnes.
- The Indian 2020-21 coriander seed crop is expected to increase by 17% y/y to 822,210 tonnes on 628,600 hectares, 19% more.
- Pimento harvesting is close to finishing in Jamaica, Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala. Farming sources forecast a 25% fall y/y in the total 2021 output to 3,000-3,700 tonnes. Hurricane Grace hit Mexico’s pimento plantations.
- Brazil’s Para state is harvesting the latest pepper crop, which is expected to be similar in size to that of last year.
- Availability of nutmeg from key producer Indonesia is still impacted by heavy rains and storms earlier this year. India’s nutmeg harvest has finished and is estimated to be around 12,000-13,000 tonnes.

Demand
- Pepper demand over the course of this season has been impacted by shipment difficulties and Covid-19 lockdowns etc. However, demand for spot material is now picking up, European traders reported this week. Export statistics (see Trade below) imply that overall consumption could end up slightly down this year but this is by no means a given and most likely due to shipment difficulties anyway.
- Demand for nutmeg and mace is also seen to be picking up.

Trade
- Indian coriander seed exports rose by 6% y/y in volume to 32,000 tonnes and by 11% more in value to $38.5 million in January-July 2021..
- ndian cumin seed exports rose by 5% y/y to 175,150 tonnes, worth $345.2 million, 7% more y/y in value, from January-July 2021. China was the main importer, taking a third of the total exported volume.
- Indonesia exported 12,000 tonnes of white pepper between January-August 2021, 13% down year-on-year. Black pepper exports from Indonesia are on par with last year so far, at 11,500 tonnes.
- Between January-September 2021, Vietnam exported 213,000 tonnes of pepper, 4% less than last year.

Price
- Madagascar’s cloves prices reached $9,500/tonne cfr Singapore in September although they are expected to fall, following the Indonesian trend also.
- Indonesian cloves prices were at $8,325/tonne in September although a price fall is expected before the Madagascan harvest (October-November) as importers have replenished their stocks.
- The Indian coriander spot price was INR7,766.90 per quintal (USD104.7/quintal) at Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 4 October, 4% less than on 6 September.
- Mexican pimento growers have responded to hurricane damage to their crop and raised prices to $5,000/tonne fob, 70-75% more y/y. Honduras pimento growers have followed Mexico’s lead and prices crossed the $5,000/tonne level this September.
- Pimento prices are expected to remain high this season due to product scarcity, seasonal purchases to cover the demand for Christmas festivities and high sea container prices.
- Global pepper prices are expected to hold in a steady to firm pattern over the coming weeks.

Oct 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Although the opening brought a slight strengthening, the highs of the previous days around GBP 1880 Mar 22 brought good selling pressure, which put the prices under pressure. At times, Mar 22 lost a good GBP 30 in London, then late in the afternoon technical support ensured that the losses were cut in half. The second month nevertheless closed GBP 16 weaker at GBP 1860, with the front spread eventually almost completely collapsing (GBP -1), sweeping a good GBP 50 discount off the table within 4 days. The rest of the structure remains clearly inverted (Mar 22/Mar 23 GBP 126). In theory, a weaker structure would have the potential to slightly shorten the long position again; however, this is not yet evident. Côte d'Ivoire ends the past crop at 2,191 mt (+5.64% YoY). Meanwhile, the CCC announces that it will allocate 175mt of international contracts from the new crop to local exporters.

Oct 06  - Vietnamese cashew kernel prices ease at the end of September (IHSmarkit)

- Factories under financial pressure
- Supermarkets wary about future demand
- RCN prices might benefit from good crops

- Vietnamese cashew prices declined late last month, averaging falls of USD 0.20 per pound, Ho Chi Minh City-based Golden Bridge reported. The firm explained that this put prices around $3.05-3.15/lb fob. The slide in prices was not unexpected after continuous increases for many months and aggressive volumes of kernel exports.
“This year Vietnam imported a huge volume of raw nuts and predicted that volumes imported in October still remained high. Obviously, pressures on raw nuts will be higher and lead to a negative impact on kernels prices,” Golden Bridge added.

- The company suggested that prices of $2.95-$3.00/lb fob Ho Chi Minh City are possible in the coming weeks.
It listed the following current range of fob prices:-

    WW80: $4.00-4.10/lb
    WW240: $3.30-3.40/lb
    WW320: $3.05-3.20/lb
    WS: $2.40-2.50/lb
    LP: $2.00-2.10/lb
    SP: $1.20-1.30/lb

- Dutch broker Global Trading & Agency observed in a September 30 report that the price for raw cashew nuts (RCN) remains stable.
“Most of the RCN available is in the hand (s) of strong stockholders that are financially independent, who can ‘hold product and dictate the market’,” the firm noted.

- Global Trading said prices for kernels eased a few cents due to lack of interest and financial pressure on some of the factories from their banks to repay their loans. “These processors either need to liquidate stocks, or they want to buy raw cashews again, which means they need to have contracts in their books that are then financed by the bank for RCN procurement,” the company added. Global Trading described demand as “slowish” on the nearby as (European supermarket) tenders are extended.
“Supermarkets are not 100% sure on demand after Covid (or will another wave hit the market?) as well as looking forward for cheaper freight rates which will also have an impact on kernel prices. Currently the sea freight prices stabilized and the whole industry is looking forward to some relief, or at least stability,” the company explained. Global Trading recommended coverage until Q1, 2022.

- When demand from China picks up prices might go rise again by a few cents as prices of RCN and kernels are still not in parity, and it is uncertain whether there is balance between RCN supply and kernel demand for the coming months. During February/March 2022 there will be better indications on the balance in the cashew world since by then approximately 80% of the world supply – as the crops in the northern hemisphere will start to come in – should be visible and therefore a better calculation can be made on RCN-kernel balance in the world.
“Good crops might create better RCN prices,” Global Trading concluded.

Oct 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the rally since the end of September and a rise in prices of just over GBP 110, yesterday was the end. The March 22 tried to break through the previous day's highs (GBP 1888), but this failed and the March 22 gave way to lows of GBP 1867. Closing price almost unchanged at GBP -1 at GBP 1876. The Dec 21 / March 22 also fell sharply; while it was still trading at GBP 33 the previous day (on Monday even GBP + 50), it corrected yesterday to a premium of GBP +11. The second month in NY ended the day at $+8 at $2792, the highest closing price since February 2020! As a reminder, "back then" the speculative long position was just over 200,000 lots, as of last week we are currently at just over 100,000 lots. From our point of view, there is still room for improvement..

Oct 06 - Global sugar supply to improve as output rises in Asia, Europe – broker

The world's sugar supply balance is expected to improve in the 2021/22 season that started this month due to higher production in Asia and Europe, which will partially offset another poor year in Brazil, broker StoneX said in a report on Tuesday. Despite the improvement, the season will still see demand surpassing production for the third consecutive year, the report said, projecting a supply deficit of 800,000 tonnes in 2021/22 compared to a deficit of 2.9 million tonnes in 2020/21, meaning stocks will continue to decrease.

Oct 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

- At the beginning of the week, both markets set accents and directly marked new highs. London found support probably primarily from new speculative buying and covering against short positions; resistance offered profit taking and (at these levels logical) hedge selling against covering from the origin. Close Mar22 GBP 1877; +18. The psychological mark of GBP 1900 is thus within reach, the uptrend continued on balance, at least yesterday. Next week, the new Q3 milling figures will be released, which are expected to be on the positive side on all sides.

- Meanwhile, in the origin, farmers of Côte d'Ivoire complain about the spread of black pod disease and problems in drying their fresh crop, both favored by rains that have lasted for three weeks. Whether this means further oil in the "bullish" fire remains to be seen. As is well known, the cocoa market has a mind of its own....

Oct 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The new crop year started as the old year ended. Until shortly before the close, March 22 posted strong gains and traded up to highs of GBP 1873. It was only shortly before the close that hedging pressure came into the markets and March 22 corrected slightly downwards. Close GBP +9 at GBP 1859. Dec 21/ Mar 22 widened further and traded at peak GBP +50 / close GBP +25.

- Côte d'Ivoire lowers its farmgate price for the main crop now underway from CFA 1000 to CFA 825 per kilo. Ghana keeps its farmgate price at Cedi 10,560 pmt. With the current currency, this means a difference of about US$ 200 between the two origins.

- Commitment of Traders as of 28.09 show an increase in the net position in London of 3,516 lots, while NY reduced 777 lots (net long both markets 108,544 lots). Within Managed Money an even more significant shift, London +3,203 lots / NY -3,198 lots.

Oct 01 - Market Briefing: Sugar (IHSmarkit)

- Brazilian mills crushed 38.3 million tonnes of sugarcane in first half of Sep, -14.1% y/y
- Pakistan’s TCP imports most expensive sugar in country’s history
- Raw sugar futures post strong gains on October expiration day
 
Production
Sugar mills Brazil’s Centre/South region crushed 38.3 million tonnes of sugarcane in the first half of September, down from 43.126 million in the previous two weeks and 14.1% below 44.673 million tonnes in the same period last year, UNICA data showed. This brought total cane processing since the start of the season on 1 April to 430.953 million tonnes, down 6.6% from 461.491 million by the same time last year. Ethanol production in the first half of September was down 11.2% at 2.060 million cubic metres from 2.321 million a year ago. Total ethanol production so far this season is down 3.0% at 20.752 million cubic metres from 21.391 million.

Demand
India's biggest sugarcane producing state, Uttar Pradesh, has raised its price mills must pay for the new crop by 7.9% to INR3,400 per tonne. This is the first hike in the cane price in four years ahead of state assembly elections next year. After raising the cane price by 3.3% to INR3,150 per tonne in 2017/18 season, Uttar Pradesh kept the rate unchanged, stoking anger among millions of farmers, an influential voting bloc.

Trade
The most expensive imported sugar of the country’s history, costing PKR109.09 per kg procured by the federal government, arrived in Pakistan this week. In pursuance of federal government instructions, Trading Corporation of Pakistan is once again importing sugar from international sources for Utility Store Corporation (USC) and provincial governments. In this connection, the fourth vessel, MV GOLD RIVER, carrying 28,760 tonnes of sugar has berthed at Karachi Port,' said a press statement of Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP). The cargo of the vessel shall be lifted by M/s Utility Store Corporation of Pakistan. The next vessel carrying 28,840 tonnes of sugar was expected by 27 September 2021.

Price
Raw sugar futures in New York ended sharply higher by Thursday (September 30), in the final trading session of the front-month October contract. The October contract went off the board at 19.83 cents per pound, up 89 points on the day. Meanwhile, white sugar futures in London also ended higher with the most-active December contract rising by $7.80 to $512.80 per tonne, just below the upper end of the day's $501.40-513.70 range. However, the March/March white sugar premium fell significantly to $67.38 per tonne from $72.45 a day earlier, reflecting the rally in raw sugar futures.

Oct 01 - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- Excessive rains threaten Colombian coffee production
- Hong Kong coffee chains pledge not to raise prices, for now
- Certified arabica stay just below 2.2 million bags

Production
Excessive rain could dampen Colombian production prospects for the supply of arabica beans. The condition caused by the La Niña weather phenomenon “doesn’t help” the outlook for 2021/22 yields for Colombia’s crop that usually increases next month, said Roberto Velez, head of the country’s National Federation of Coffee Growers. The global supply of arabica beans is already strained by the lack of water and frost that hurt Brazilian crop yields in 2021/22, while the country’s government believes it will have a “major impact” by 2022. In 2021/22, Brazilian production plummeted by around 18 million bags from the previous year, representing around 40% of the country’s arabica production. This decline is larger than Colombia’s annual production of around 14 million bags.

Demand
Hong Kong's major coffee chains say they are not raising prices yet despite an increase in the cost of coffee beans worldwide. Pacific Coffee, The Coffee Academics and NOC said they had not passed higher costs on to consumers, although Starbucks - the city's largest coffee chain - has raised prices by about 5%. The higher cost of beans is partly down to the pandemic disrupting global supply chains and shipping, which has also led to higher imported food prices. But poor harvests mean the cost of popular arabica coffee beans has risen 45% globally so far this year. Robusta also costs more.

Trade
Stocks of ICE certified arabica beans rose by a fractional 1,575 60-kg bags to 2,163,697 in the two weeks to 21 September, exchange data show. Stocks in Europe fell by 375 bags to 2,037,588, while inventories in the US increased by 1,950 bags to 126,109.

Price
Arabica coffee futures prices rebounded by Thursday (September 30), after closing the previous session sharply lower on forecasts indicating Brazil could receive much-needed rains over the next few days. The benchmark December arabica contract settled 0.60 cents higher at 194.00 cents per pound, in dealings between 193.50 and 196.45 cents. March was up 0.55 cents at 196.80 cents per pound and the rest of the board gained 0.20-0.55 cents. Trading volume rose to 38,101 lots from 24,345 a day earlier.

Oct 01 - Market Briefing: Cocoa (IHSmarkit)

- Ivory Coast arrivals +5.5% y/y increase at end of 2020/21 season
- Peru’s cocoa exports grow in first half of 2021; +17% in value, +27% in volume
- Ivory Coast lowers farmgate price to CFA825 per kg, Ghana unchanged

Production
As the 2020/21 cocoa season comes to an end, arrivals at Ivory Coast’s ports reported a 5.5% y/y increase in its arrivals, according to exporter’s estimates. Cumulatively, between October 1 2020 till September 26, cocoa arrivals at its ports reached 2.189 million tonnes, up from 2.074 million tonnes over the same period last season. In terms of weekly volumes, about 5,000 tonnes of beans were delivered to the Abidjan port and 5,000 tonnes to San Pedro between September 20-26, for a total of 10,000 tonnes up from 6,000 tonnes during the same week last season.

Demand
- Ivory Coast has dropped its fixed farmgate price paid to cocoa farmers to CFA825 ($1.47) per kg from CFA1,000 last season. Ghana maintained the guaranteed cocoa price it pays to farmers at GHS10,560 per tonne for the 2021/22 growing season, which starts October 1.
- Meanwhile, ICE-monitored US cocoa inventories on Thursday (September 30) fell to a 3¾-month low, down from the record high of 5.86 million bags (data from 1999) posted on June 30. ICE-monitored EU cocoa inventories fell to a 7½-month low on Monday.

Trade
Peru’s cocoa exports saw growth in the first half of this year; +17% in value and +27% in volume, compared to the same period in 2020. The total export value of cocoa and its derivatives grew in the January-June period of 2021 compared to the same period of 2020, going from $104.4 million to $122.6 million. In volume, 42,830 tonnes of cocoa were purchased for export, with 47% were exported as beans and 53% were exported as cocoa derivatives. The exported value of cocoa beans and chocolates also recovered, seeing an 8% y/y rise for this half year of 2021. Exports of cocoa nibs also grew in value by a significant 18% and only cocoa mass decreased by 3%.

Price
Cocoa prices on Thursday (September 30) settled moderately higher, with New York cocoa at a 1½-week high and London sugar at a 6½-month high. December New York cocoa closed up $63 to $2,605, while December London cocoa closed up £35 to £1,854. Cocoa prices are climbing on optimism that cocoa demand may improve as the pandemic recedes. London cocoa also has support on weakness in the British pound after GBP/USD fell to a 9¼-month low on Wednesday.

Oct 01 - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- Romania becomes Europe’s biggest walnut producer
- EU nut consumption is still expanding
- Greek currant prices prone to downward pressure

Production
- The 2021-22 Spanish almond output is expected to fall by 12% y/y to 94,293 tonnes on 718,540 hectares. Trees were hit by frost this March, hitting yield despite a good average rainfall.
- Italy’s 2021-22 almond crop is forecast to fall 38% y/y to 13,500 tonnes due to severe drought in Sicily and Puglia.
- Romania has become the biggest EU walnut producer, overtaking France and Italy, thanks to subsidies. Romania’s 2021-22 walnut crop is forecast to grow by 1.5% y/y to 51,000 tonnes. France, the second-largest EU grower, is expected to increase by 14% y/y to 40,780 tonnes.
- Italy’s 2021 pistachio crop is likely to double y/y to 2,800 tonnes, although still far from the crop of 3,850 tonnes in the 2019-20 season, due to severe drought.
- Spain’s 2020 pistachio crop reached 14,330 tonnes, 9.4% more y/y as growers are expanding planted acreage.
- Turkey’s 2021 hazelnut crop was delayed by prolonged rainfall. However, this has not created any distress or supply shortage in the market as there was a reasonable quantity of carry-over from the 2020 crop.
- Greece’s 2021 currant crop is estimated at 18,000 tonnes, added to which the country has a carry-in of around 8,000 tonnes.

Demand
- EU nut consumption is still growing thanks to high demand from the food processing and snack industries, fuelled by healthy lifestyle trends.
- In addition, Spain is boosting its sales of traditional almond-based confectionery such as marzipan, especially during the Christmas festivities. Import figures across a number of the key nut categories illustrate the rises in EU nut consumption (see Trade below).
- Demand for hazelnuts on the premium chocolate side remains limited as gift purchases of chocolate products containing hazelnuts has not yet taken off.
- UK dried fruit and nut traders feel that recent demand, particularly in vine fruits, has matched that of August and September 2020 rather than reverting to pre-pandemic levels.
- Demand for Greek currants specifically is cited as being weak at the moment.

Trade
- EU walnut imports are expected to rise by 5,000 tonnes y/y to 275,000 tonnes in the 2021-22 season. The US, Ukraine and Chile are the main suppliers.
- EU pistachio imports in 2021-22 are expected to rise by 3,000 tonnes y/y to 86,000 tonnes. The US and Iran are the main EU suppliers.
- The US is expected to strengthen its role as the main nut supplier in the EU due to falling almond and pistachio crops in Spain and Italy.
- The EU imported $7.2 billion in tree nuts in 2020, the US and Turkey accounting for 39% and 22%, respectively.
- The dire shortage of road freight drivers in the UK is causing major problems across the UK dried fruit and nut trade.

Price
- Turkish hazelnut prices are in a relatively stable phase but it is suggested that export quotes could increase rapidly in the coming weeks once the Turkish lira recovers and/or more demand is seen.
- Greek currant prices are falling on ample supply and weak demand, being now around €1,700 ($1,986) per tonne c&f versus €1,900/tonne c&f a few months ago.
- Turkish sultana prices are expected to decline further as sellers bought material at harvest and are struggling to sell it. Turkish sultanas are around $1,600/tonne fob.

Oct 01 - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- Heavy rains and frosts hit the Spanish lemon production
- Strong home consumption and hostelry recovery fuel spice sales
- CO2 shortage and high sea freight fares to raise spice prices

Production
- Spain’s 2021-22 lemon production is expected to fall by 23% y/y to 1.03 million tonnes due to frosts and heavy rains during the bloom period, according to the Spanish lemon and grapefruit association (Ailimpo). Spain is the biggest European lemon producer, exporting fresh product, juice and essential oils mainly to EU members, the US and Canada.
- French vanilla processor Eurovanille has acquired the natural vanillin brand Vaniforlia products from Solvay. In addition, Solvay will supply compounds to Eurovanille over the next three years.

Demand
The US spice processor McCormick has reported its net sales rose by 11.4% y/y to $1.54 billion in the quarter ending on 31 August, bringing year-to-date sales (December 2020-August 2021) to $4.58 billion in the FY2021 (December-November), thanks to a robust spice home consumption and hospitality recovery. Asian markets have been the drivers of growth, with a 20% increase in sales.

Trade
- Argentina’s international honey sales fell by 8% y/y in volume to 49,470 tonnes but increased by 32% in value to $165.5 million. Brazil’s honey exports in January-August rose by 20% y/y in volume to 37,490 tonnes and doubled in value to $128.6 million.
- India’s cumin seed exports rose by 5% y/y to 175,150 tonnes, worth $345.2 million, 7% more y/y in value, from January-July 2021, according to customs data.
- Indian sesame seed exports were 152,100 tonnes, worth $233.7 million, in January-July 2021, 11% less y/y in volume and 18% less in value.

Prices

- On the eve of the Anuga fair (Cologne, 9-13 October) the German Spice Association is concerned about CO2 shortage and sea transport fares, forecasting high prices up to H2 2022.. Traditional spices such as pepper, paprika, ginger, nutmeg, cinnamon, cumin and turmeric are the most affected, especially when the demand is at high levels since the Covid-19 pandemic.
- India’s new sesame seed (whitish) spot price was INR10,400 per quintal ($140.3/quintal) at Unjha wholesale market (Gujarat, North East) on 29 September, INR100 more than on 1 September. The daily futures market prices on NCDEX were stagnant at INR8,540/quintal for deliveries between October-December from 1-28 September. Meanwhile, the minimum support price (MSP) is at INR7,307/quintal in the 2021-22 season.

Oct 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The 20/21 cocoa year now truly ended with a bang. March 22 maintained its strong performance from the previous day, breaking through the trend line and trading to new highs for the year at GBP 1852. Aggressive buying of the Dec 21 / Mar 22 spread (traded to a new high of GBP +29 yesterday) and any concerns about shipping bottlenecks and a resulting even later start to the harvest, ensured a firm daily close of GBP 1850/ GBP +23. The new 22/23 dates ended the day only slightly up or unchanged, further suggesting rumoured good selling from the origin. The now clearly inverted structure and a lower open interest in Dec vs March, should not curb the appetite of the longs. Next resistance would be at GBP 1880 /1900. A fund of OPEC will participate with US$ 50 m in the loan of the bank consortium in Ghana....There was something with "CocoaPec" ?

Sep 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The firm start to the day of GBP 18, set the right tone in the early morning yesterday. The March 22 gained GBP 37 at the peak and traded up to highs of GBP 1830, approaching the uptrend line as seen last week. It remains to be seen whether this will provide resistance this time as well. The close of March 22 GBP +34 at GBP 1827. The near Dec 21/ March 22 spread continues to play ping-pong. 2 days were enough for it to turn from a narrow discount back to a premium of GBP +11. Today's month/quarter close also marks the end of the 20/21 cocoa year.

Sep 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

An unchanged opening was followed by a steady climb northwards yesterday. The March 22 recouped the losses of the previous two days and traded to highs of GBP 1806. Buying interest from the industry (again mainly for the later dates) and a weak British pound also provided good support. The March 22 ended the day GBP +21 at GBP 1793, so the now 6 week range around GBP 1800 continues to hold. Traders & producers are now in the starting blocks for the main harvest which will start soon. While weather conditions have gradually improved, logistical challenges continue to be the focus of market participants.

Sep 28 - Kenyan Mild Arabica Coffee Price Stays Flat at Auction
- The average price of Kenyan mild arabica coffee remained flat at Tuesday's auction, the Nairobi Coffee Exchange said.
- Beans sold at an average price of $302 for a 50-kilogram bag, the same as the prior auction on Sept. 21.
- A total of 213.8 metric tons of arabica coffee beans were sold, for a total of $1.29 million.

- The auction is currently held weekly. Previously, the auction was held fortnightly due to low supplies as cold weather delayed drying of the beans, according to Daniel Mbithi, the auction house's chief executive.

- Almost all Kenyan arabica coffee is sold at an auction held by the NCE, with most destined for export. However, direct sales are allowed.  Kenya's arabica auctions use the New York ICE futures index as their benchmark.

Sep 28 - Heavy rains leave Ivory Coast cocoa farmers split on harvest outlook

As heavy rains persisted across Ivory Coast's cocoa-growing regions last week, farmers polled by Reuters were divided on whether moisture levels would help the October-to-March main crop or nurture a crop-killing fungal disease. The world's top cocoa producer is in its rainy season, which runs from April to mid-November when downpours are frequent.

Sep 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After two failed breakouts to the upside, it was over for the time being on Friday. The March 22, under pressure from pre-sales and speculative profit-taking, moved back just below the GBP 1800 level. Which is pretty much the midpoint of the market's movement for 6 weeks now, including violent swings but the market seems to continue to use this level as a guide. Closing price March 22 GBP -17 at GBP 1792. The Commitment of Traders figures as of 21.09 do not show us a clearer picture either. NY -4,570 lots / LDN +1,943....Net a reduction of 2,807 lots to 105,805 lots net long.

Sep 27 - India's top sugar producing state raises cane price by 7.9%

India's biggest sugar producing state, Uttar Pradesh, has raised the price mills must pay for the new crop by 7.9%, the top official said, announcing the first hike in the cane price in four years ahead of state assembly elections next year. The state government has decided to raise the price that mills need to pay cane growers in the 2021-22 season beginning October to 340 rupees per 100 kgs ($4.61 per 220 lb), Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath said, addressing a group of farmers.

Sep 24 - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- Ethiopia faces decline in sesame seed crop
- Mexican honey attracting strong export demand
- Indian coriander seed draws domestic and overseas buyers

Production

- The 2020-21 (October-September) Ethiopian sesame seed crop is expected to fall by 9% year-on-year to 255,000 tonnes due to a cut in acreage, according to the USDA, as many farmers are switching to other products such as sorghum due to rising demand in food crops after the Covid-19 pandemic restrictions hit grocery supply chains.
- Mexico’s 2020 chilli output reached a record of 3.32 million tonnes, 2.7% more y/y, according to the government.
- India’s 2020-21 coriander seed crop is expected to increase by 17% y/y to 822,210 tonnes on 628,600 hectares, 19% more.
- China’s 2021 garlic crop is said to have fallen by 15%.
- The 2021 Mexican honey crop rose by 22.4% year-on-year to 66,270 tonnes.

Demand

- Indian coriander seed processors and traders are launching offers to cover the demand for the Diwali festival (November). This domestic demand has helped push up prices on local markets (see Price below).
- Export demand for India’s coriander seed has also strengthened (see Trade below).
- Germany honey buyers have acquired more Mexican honey in the first six months of this year (see Trade below). The US has also raised its purchases of Mexican honey in H1 2021.

Trade

- Ethiopian sesame seed exports reached 100,000 tonnes, worth $150 million, a third less y/y in volume and value, in H1 2021. The main importers of Ethiopian sesame were the UAE, Israel and Vietnam, accounting for 30%, 25% and 11%, respectively, of the total volume.
- Peru’s chilli exports reached 26,766 tonnes, worth $77.3 million in January-August 2021, 480 tonnes more y/y in volume and 20% more in value. The US, Mexico and Spain are the key importers, accounting for 38.0%, 28.8% and 25.4% of the total exported volume.   
- India’s turmeric exports reached 77,290 tonnes, worth $109.4 million, in H1 2021, 3% less y/y in volume and 10% more in value. The main importers were the US, Bangladesh and the UAE, taking 17%, 15% and 9%, respectively, of the total volume.
- Indian coriander seed exports between January and May 2021 rose by 15% y/y in volume to 23,740 tonnes and by 20% more in value to $29.2 million. The main importers were Malaysia, Nepal and the UAE, which took 24%, 14% and 9.5%, respectively, of the total volume.
-Mexico’s honey exports rose by 31% y/y to 17,600 tonnes and doubled to $64 million in H1 2021 thanks to a combination of high crop and prices. The main importers were Germany and the US, taking 49% and 12%, respectively, of the total volume.

Price

- Ethiopian sesame seed prices reached $1,360/tonne fob for Whitish Wollega Grade 3-5 this August, $30 up from July due to rising sea freight costs.
- The Indian spot fob turmeric price reached INR7,212 per quintal ($97.8/quintal) at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, south central) on 17 September, 5% less than on 18 August.
- The Indian coriander spot price was INR8,144 per quintal ($111.3/quintal) at Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 6 September, 11% more than on 9 August, as domestic demand is gradually recovering after India's government eased Covid-19 restrictions.
- Mexican honey prices have been stable at $4,725 per tonne cif nw Europe for Orange Blossom since June 2021, 23% more than in March 2021, following the trend led by Argentina.
- Chinese dried garlic prices are rising after a disappointing crop and rising sea freight rates, exacerbated by the closure of Ningbo port.

Sep 24 - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- Californian walnut crop downgraded due to severe drought and frosts
- 11% increase in Californian almond exports in August 
- Ferrero has announced its purchasing prices for hazelnuts in Turkey

Production

- California’s 2021 walnut crop is expected to fall by 15% y/y to 670,000 (short) tons on 385,000 bearing acres (+1% y/y) due to frosts and severe drought, according to the USDA. Widespread freezing temperatures in the autumn of 2020 resulted in frost damage to walnut orchards across the state. Growers reported the frost damage delayed leaf out and reduced nut set in affected orchards.
- Turkey’s 2021-22 walnut output is forecast at 68,000 tonnes, 1,000 tonnes up from the previous season, the USDA noted. Most orchards are irrigated. As a result, severe drought has not affected their average yield. 
- Mexico’s 2021 pecan crop is expected to fall by 16% y/y to 115,250 tonnes after trees in Sonora and Chihuahua (both in the North) were hit by severe heat and frosts this summer, according to the Mexican Walnut and Pecan Association (Comenuez).
- The USDA forecasts China’s August 2021 raisin crop to reach 180,000 tonnes, a 20% rebound from the 150,000 tonnes of 2020. Lockdown measures due to the Covid-19 outbreak during the summer of 2020 halted most farming activities, including grape harvesting, across Xinjiang, the single largest raisin producing region in China. As a result, many grapes were left unpicked, causing a drastic reduction in raisin production in marketing year (MY) 2020/21.
- France’s plum crop is expected to reach around 15,000 tonnes, two thirds less y/y after frosts hit trees this April.

Demand

- Turkey’s walnut consumption may total 150,000 tonnes in the 2021-22 season, 2,000 tonnes up from the previous season, according to the USDA. 
- India’s demand for almonds is likely to fall by 10% y/y to 135,000 tonnes after reaching a record of 150,000 tonnes in the 2020-21 season, due to lower prices and strong home consumption during lockdowns, according to the USDA. Home consumption may suffer a strong fall, although the hostelry recovery will temper it this season. India’s 2021-22 walnut consumption may be stagnant y/y at 66,000 tonnes. 

Trade

- The first month of the US 2021-22 almond season set another monthly record with total shipments at 207.4 million lbs, up 14.3 million lbs and 7% over last year. Exports were up close to 11% and the domestic market remain relatively flat being up 1% over August last year.
- California’s walnut shipments rose by 9% y/y to 32.1 million in-shell basis pounds this August, closing the season (September 2020-August 2021) with 760.1 million lbs, 16% more y/y, according to the Californian Walnut Board (CWB).
- US pistachio sales closed the 2020-21 season with 25,440 (short) tons this August, 64% more y/y, bringing seasonal shipments (September-August) to 325,100 tons, 22% up y/y.
- Vietnam’s cashew exports increased by 21.4% y/y to 324,000 tonnes and by 14% in value to $1.97 billion from January-July 2021. according to Vietnam’s customs.
- The Californian raisin industry started the season (August-July) with shipments of 20,970 (short) tones, slightly down from 21,150 tons in August 2020.

Price

- Spanish almond prices continued rising despite low activity this August, as California did after the USDA released a low crop estimate due to severe drought. In-shell conventional Comuna almonds averaged €4.50-4.60/kilo this August ($5.3-5.4/kg, +7% m/m), according to trading sources. In-shell organic Comuna almonds peaked at €9.30/kg (+2% m/m).
- Ferrero has announced its purchasing price for in-shell Turkish hazelnuts. This is set at TRY25/kg ($3.00) (TRY25.25/kg for first-class products). The domestic market is at TRY25.5/kg and the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) is at TRY26.5/kg (TRY27/kg for Giresun).
- The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has announced its purchasing prices for the 2021-22 seedless sultana crop:
    TRY14/kg ($1.68/kg) for No. 10
    TRY13/kg for No. 9
    TRY12.5/kg for No. 8
    TRY12/kg for No. 7

Forward view

- Almond (the US and Spain), walnut (the US) and pistachio (the US and Iran) harvests are in full swing in the northern hemisphere. Their crops will be essential to set prices in Q4.
- Raisin harvests in the US and Turkey, the biggest suppliers in the northern hemisphere, will conclude between September-October.
- The Indian demand for walnuts, cashews, almonds and pistachios is expected to peak during the Diwali festival (November).
- The purchases of dried fruit and nuts to cover the demand for Christmas festivities in the US and the EU will be strongly influenced by sea freight prices and timeframe deliveries, especially for tropical dried fruit. 

Sep 24  - Market Briefing: Cocoa (IHSmarkit)

- Global cocoa market surplus at 230,000 tonnes for 2020/21
- World cocoa grindings at 4,860,000 tonnes for 2020/21
- Cocoa and semi-finished exports rose to 2.3 million tonnes in January-March 2021

Production

The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) placed global cocoa supplies at a 230,000-tonne surplus for 2020/21, compared with its earlier projection of 165,000 tonnes. The reason for the upgraded surplus is another expected global record in cocoa production of 5.141 million tonnes, compared to its previous estimate of 5.024 million tonnes. A major revision in production was made for Ghana (up by 90,000 tonnes to 1.040 million tonnes), with Ivory Coast still set for a record 2.225 million tonnes. Cameroon and Ecuador have also been adjusted upwards by 10,000 tonnes each to 290,000 tonnes and 350,000 tonnes respectively. At regional level, production is expected to be +11% y/y in Africa to 3.975 million tonnes, by +1.1% to 281,000 tonnes in Asia and Oceania and +2% in the Americas to 885,000 tonnes.

Demand

- Global grindings for the 2020/21 season are now also expected to rise by 3.3% 4.860 million tonnes. Regionally, the Americas is forecast to take the first position, up by almost 7% to 961,000 tonnes, followed by Asia and Oceania with a 5% increase to 1.164 million tonnes. Steady progress is foreseen in Europe with an increase of almost 2% to 1.734 million tonnes and a 1% rise to 1.001 million tonnes in Africa.
- Ivory Coast cocoa grinders processed 54,000 tonnes of beans in August, +20% y/y. Cumulatively, total processed beans was down 1.5% at 506,000 tonnes, from 514,000 tonnes last year.
- Brazilian crushing volumes in August slipped 8% m/m to 325,650 60-kilo bags (19,539 tonnes) from 357,116 bags (21,427 tonnes) in July, which itself was the highest volume since July 2019. However, August’s grinding figures were only marginally lower year-on-year (-0.13%).

Trade

- Global cocoa bean and semi-finished exports rose to 2.3 million tonnes in Q2 of the 2020/21 season, up from the previous season’s 1.8 million tonnes. Of this total, 54% (1.2 million tonnes) consisted of cocoa beans; 17% (410,914 tonnes) cocoa powder and cake; 15% (361,759 tonnes) cocoa butter; and 13% (300,777 tonnes) cocoa paste. The Netherlands, Germany and Belgium were the major gateways for the EU market, while Malaysia and Indonesia fulfilled the same role for the Asian markets. Separately, exports of chocolate and chocolate products reached 1.5 million tonnes, up slightly from 1.4 million tonnes the same period last season.
- Brazil’s cocoa exports climbed by 78% y/y to 8,438 tonnes in August. Chocolate shipments tallied 3,043 tonnes in August, similar to last month’s 3,180 tonnes.

Price

Cocoa saw some rallies earlier on in the month, backed by improved demand outlooks. On September 7, December New York cocoa closed up $50 to $2,704, while December London cocoa settled up by £21 to £1,835 per tonne, after rising to a nine-month high of £1,843 earlier on in the session. However, towards the end of September, there was little action in the cocoa market with futures back to trading in their familiar price range. Meanwhile, cocoa powder prices rose considerably in August to 130.75 cents per pound, after staying at 95 cents for the last 1½ years. However this is seen as being transitory, with lower futures prices expected to drive declines in powder in due course.

Sep 24  - Market Briefing: Sugar (IHSmarkit)

- Brazil's CS crushed 43.1 million tonnes of sugar cane in the second half of August
- China’s sugar imports in August fell to 500,000 tonnes
- Indian sugar mills to export 1.2 million tonnes in 2021/22

Production

- Brazilian mills crushed 43.1 million tonnes of sugarcane in the second half of August, down from 44.6 million in the previous two weeks but 2.1% above 42.2 million tonnes in the same period last year, UNICA data showed. This brought total cane processing since the start of the season to 392.5 million tonnes, down 5.8% from 416.8 million by the same time last year. The average cane yield fell to 65.3 tonnes per ha during August, a decrease of 18.1% from 79.7 in the same month last year. The average cane yield since the start of the harvest is down 14.3% at 72.9 tonnes per ha from 85.0 a year ago.
- The EU’s crop monitoring unit MARS left its estimate of the average EU sugar beet yield in 2021/22 at 75.0 tonnes per ha in September, unchanged from the projection given in August. If realized, this would be 1.9% above the five-year average of 73.6 tonnes per ha and up 11% from 67.5 tonnes per ha in 2020/21.

Demand

- China's sugar imports fell to 500,000 tonnes in August 2021 from 680,000 in the same month last year , though above July's 430,000 tonnes. This brought total sugar imports in the first 11 months of 2020/21 (October/September) to a record 5.46 million tonnes, up significantly from 3.2 million imported in the same period a year ago.
- The state-run Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) issued a new international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of white sugar. The deadline for submission of price offers is September 29. The TCP is believed to have made no purchase in a tender for 200,000 tonnes which closed this week. Only one offer had been reported in the tender on September 20 at $670 per tonne c&f, up from the $637.10 per tonne c&f Pakistan paid in its last sugar purchase reported on August 31, after sugar futures hit 4½-year highs in September. Traders said the rapid delivery sought reduced participation in the tender.

Trade

- Indian sugar mills have already signed contracts to export 1.2 million tonnes of the sweetener in the upcoming 2021/22 (October/September) season, as a rally in global prices has made exports feasible without government subsidies.
- Brazil exported 2,595,408 tonnes of sugar in August 2021, down from 3,139,009 tonnes in the same month last year, government data showed. Shipments were somewhat higher than the 2,468,753 tonnes in June as production is gathering pace.

Price

White sugar futures in London rallied this month as the October contract expired, propelling prices to their highest level since 2017. By September 23, the most-active December contract rose by $5.20 to settle at $513.40 per tonne, just below the upper end of the day's $508.40-514.00 trading range. Meanwhile, raw sugar futures remained mostly under 19 cents per pound, though firming towards the end of the month, with March delivery ending at 20.29 cents per pound and front-month October rising to 19.49 cents per pound by September 23. However, the main concern remains poor demand and fragile logistics, which inflate end-user prices. Uncertainty over the situation in Brazil is also the dominant bullish factor.

Sep 24  - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- Brazilian coffee production in 2021/22 to reach 46.8 million 60-kg bags
- Vietnamese coffee exports in August 2021 amounted to 111,697 tonnes
- Robusta futures hit four-year highs

Production

- Brazil’s Conab cut its estimate for the 2021/22 coffee crop, by 1.93 million 60-kg bags to 46.8 million from the previous projection at the end of May of 48.81 million. The reduction was attributed to damage from drought and frost in June and July. The arabica coffee crop is seen reaching 30.7 million bags, versus 33.3 million projected in the previous estimate. It would mark a 36.9% y/y drop from 48.7 million bags.
- Colombian production of washed arabica coffee in August 2021 reached only 915,000 60-kg bags, down 16.1% from 1.091 million in the same month last year and also below 1.209 million bags in July, the National Coffee Federation (Fedecafe) said.

Demand

- US green coffee stocks in port warehouses rose by 56,138 60-kg bags during August 2021 to reach 6,130,484 bags at the end of the month, according to the Green Coffee Association (GCA). Stocks were down 9.1% or 614,852 bags from the same month a year ago.
- Japanese green coffee stocks amounted to 2.743 million 60-kg bags at the end of July 2021, down from 2.793 million at the end of the previous month and 244,517 bags below the count at the same time last year, data from the All Japan Coffee Association showed. This was the 16th straight month during which stocks were lower than in the same month last year and it is the lowest level for the month of July since 2012.

Trade

- Vietnam’s coffee exports in August 2021 were 111,697 tonnes (around 1.8 million 60 kg bags), down 8.7% from July but above 100,188 tonnes (1.6 million bags) in the same month last year. This brought total exports in the first 11 months of 2020/21 to 1.3 million tonnes (23.1 million bags), down from 1.512 million tonnes (25.1 million) in the same period a year ago.
- Brazilian exports of green coffee in August 2021 fell by 28% from a year earlier to around 2.3 million 60-kg bags, as difficulties to find containers and space at vessels increased, exporters association Cecafe said. This brought total green coffee exports so far in 2021/22 to 13.2 million bags, down 11.7%.
- Members of the International Coffee Organization (ICO) exported 10.6 million 60-kg bags of coffee in July 2021, up 1.3% from 10.4 million in the same month last year. This brought total exports in the first nine months of 2020/21 to 108.9 million bags, up 2.1% from 106.6 million in the corresponding period a year ago.

Price

Robusta futures hit several four-year highs this month, as the bean remained good value versus its arabica counterpart. By September 20, the benchmark November robusta contract settled at $2,152 per tonne, after previously hitting a new four-year high of $2,178. Roasters are increasingly keen to use robusta beans in place of pricey arabica, while Covid-19 restrictions in Vietnam and a shortage of container freight are also boosting prices. Meanwhile, coffee trading remained tepid in Vietnam due to a shortage of beans, with traders awaiting the new crop season that begins next month. Farmers in the Central Highlands sold coffee beans at VND39,900-41,400 per kg.

Sep 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With yesterday's daily high of GBP 1837 / Dec 21, the upper trend line continued to hold off an upward breakout yesterday. Waning appetite of specs / funds and slight profit-taking by them then led to a correction in prices. Dec 21 traded to lows of GBP 1806 and ended the day at GBP -22 at GBP 1809 on very poor volume. With a pre-sale 21/22 campaign almost complete, market rumours are focusing on the marketing of the 22/23 crop from the Ivory Coast. A corresponding discount on the country differential is said to be temporary, but there is still a long way to go until next year.

Sep 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

London opened firm and brought the gains, favored among other things by a weaker British pound, over the day. The second month Mar 22 marked new highs at GBP 1835, but unsurprisingly found technical resistance there (see trendline chart), yet closed just below (GBP 1831; +21). Participation was moderate at best with 19k lots, half of which traded in the first month Dec 22, most of which may be attributed to physical business. Whether the consolidation of the past few weeks will now come to an end may be highly doubted, to say the least. The markets are overbought, the specs are likely to hold their long position in the further inverse structure. They are "in the money", so why extend further...

Sep 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Almost as expected, the cocoa market initially followed the self-imposed rule to trade sideways around GBP 1800 (close Mar 22 GBP 1810). London largely recouped the previous day's macro-induced losses, although a firming GBP and inverse market structure prevented a northward breakout. Bandwidth (GBP 23) and volume (14k lots) signalled general restraint in this regard. The CCC in Côte d'Ivoire is starting pre-sales of the 2022/23 main crop at an extremely early stage. Differentials are reportedly similar to those for the upcoming 2021/22 main crop, for which a new farmgate price of between 825 - 850 F/kg is emerging, compared to 1000 F/kg for the 2020/21 main crop.

Sep 22 - Wake up and smell the coffee ... made in the United States

Farmer David Armstrong recently finished planting what is likely the most challenging crop his family has ever cultivated since his ancestors started farming in 1865 - 20,000 coffee trees. Except Armstrong is not in the tropics of Central America - he is in Ventura, California, just 60 miles (97 km) away from downtown Los Angeles.

 Sep 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Concerns about the highly debt-laden Chinese group Evergrande left their mark on global commodity activity yesterday, and thus also on the cocoa markets. However, London held out for a relatively long time and showed little vulnerability compared to NY, which fell by around US$ 70 in the afternoon. The Mar 22 lost GBP 20 and closed at the day's lows at GBP 1796, which should continue the ongoing sideways movement around GBP 1800, and today's opening is calculated at GBP +8. There can be no talk of a clear trend from a technical point of view either. From Côte d'Ivoire, rumors about an imminent reduction of the farmgate price for the new harvest 2021/22 and related protests of cocoa farmers are increasing.

Sep 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Selling from the trade initially put London under slight pressure in the front months, but without much momentum. Thus, the market traded sideways for most of the day before cautious buying interest set in towards the evening, marking the day's highs at which the origin was clearly selling. The March 22 nevertheless managed to gain GBP 8 and closed just below the highs at GBP 1815. Fundamentally, the market is sorting through reports of an expected 2021/22 crop deficit and an imminent increase in freight rates from Ghana. In the COT, the net long position grows to 108k (+23k) lots. However, the swap dealers (+24k) almost offset the sales of the trade (-25k), while the specs are almost completely off the gas (+2k).

Sep 20  - Uganda's coffee shipments jump 34% in August, regulator says

Uganda's coffee shipments jumped 34.9% in August from the same period last year buoyed by harvests from newly-matured trees and favourable weather, the industry regulator said on Friday. The East African country exported 700,990 60-KG bags of coffee, up from 519,683 bags shipped in the same month a year ago, according to a report by the sector regulator, Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA).

Sep 17 - Market Briefing: Cocoa (IHSmarkit)

- Ivorian grinders processed 54,000 tonnes of beans in August, +20% y/y
- Cocoa bean and semi-finished product exports rose to 2.3 million tonnes in Q2 of 2020/21 season
- Brazil’s cocoa exports climbed by 78% y/y to 8,438 tonnes in August

Production

Ivory Coast’s weekly cocoa arrivals hit approximately 6,000 tonnes at Abidjan port and 7,000 tonnes at San Pedro between September 6-12 for a total of 13,000 tonnes, same as last week’s and above the 7,000 tonnes noted during the same week last season. Year-to-date supplies also still appear to be plentiful, with arrivals reaching 2.168 million tonnes by September 12, up 4.8% from 2.060 million tonnes over the same period last season; the same percentage increase as last week. Main cocoa crop arrivals were pegged at 2.142 million tonnes between October 1 and August 31, according Cocoa and Coffee Council (CCC), up 4.8% from the same period last season.

Demand

- Ivory Coast cocoa grinders processed 54,000 tonnes of beans in August, up 20% compared with the same month a year ago, data from exporters’ association GEPEX showed. Total processed beans since the start of the 2020/2021 season in October was down 1.5% at 506,000 tonnes by the end of August, from 514,000 tonnes during the same period last season.
- Brazilian crushing volumes in August slipped 8% m/m to 325,650 60-kilo bags (19,539 tonnes) from 357,116 bags (21,427 tonnes) in July, which itself was the highest volume since July 2019. However, August’s grinding figures were only marginally lower year-on-year (-0.13%).

Trade

- Global exports of cocoa beans and semi-finished products rose to 2.3 million tonnes during Q2 of the 2020/21 season (January-March 2021), up from the previous season’s 1.8 million tonnes, outlined the ICCO. Separately, exports of chocolate and it chocolate products reached 1,549,124 tonnes January-March 2021, up slightly from 1,497,639 tonnes the same period last season.
- Brazil’s cocoa exports climbed by 78% y/y to 8,438 tonnes in August, compared to 4,714 tonnes this time last year, according to Secex/Comex data. Brazil’s chocolate shipments tallied 3,043 tonnes in August, similar to last month’s 3,180 tonnes.

Price

Signs of strength in global cocoa demand was bullish for prices this week with futures still riding off the back of improved demand data. By Wednesday’s close (September 15), cocoa prices had moved higher for a third straight session, posting moderate gains. December New York cocoa closed up $7 to $2,663, while December London cocoa settled up £16 to £1,809.

Sep 17 - Market Briefing: Sugar (IHSmarkit)

- Brazilian mills crushed 43.1 million tonnes of sugarcane in second half of August, +2.1% y/y
- In-quota quantity for US TRQ’s on raw cane sugar for FY 2022 is 1,117,195 metric tons raw value
- Expired October white sugar futures hit its highest since March 2017

Production

Brazilian mills crushed 43.1 million tonnes of sugarcane in the second half of August, down from 44.6 million in the previous two weeks but 2.1% above 42.2 million tonnes in the same period last year, UNICA data showed. This brought total cane processing since the start of the season on 1 April to 392.5 million tonnes, down 5.8% from 416.8 million by the same time last year. The average cane yield fell to 65.3 tonnes per ha during August, a decrease of 18.1% from 79.7 in the same month last year, UNICA said. The average cane yield since the start of the harvest is down 14.3% at 72.9 tonnes per ha from 85.0 a year ago.

Demand

The in-quota quantity for US TRQ’s on raw cane sugar for FY 2022 is 1,117,195 metric tons raw value (MTRV), which is the minimum amount to which the US is committed under the World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement. The Administrator also announced the establishment of the in-quota quantity of the FY 2022 refined sugar TRQ at 222,000 MTRV. USTR is allocating the refined sugar TRQ as follows: 10,300 MTRV to Canada, 2,954 MTRV to Mexico, and 7,090 MTRV to be administered on a first-come, first-served basis.

Trade

- The state-run Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) has issued a new international tender to purchase 200,000 tonnes of white sugar. The deadline for submission of price offers is September 20.
- Indian sugar mills have already signed contracts to export 1.2 million tonnes of the sweetener in the upcoming 2021/22 (October/September) season as a rally in global prices has made export feasible without government subsidies.

Price

October white sugar futures expired on Wednesday (September 15) gaining $16.30, or 3.3%, at $511.90 a tonne, the highest price since March 2017. The front-month contract gained 10% in the three sessions since Monday. The rise was also fuelled by a general strength in commodity markets and crude oil. December was up $15.30 at $514.50, and the rest of the board settled up $5.90 to $13.20 in volume of 16,841 lots. The white sugar premium also jumped almost $4 per tonne to $81.56 basis October/October.

Sep 17 - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- Brazilian coffee production in 2021/22 to reach 48.9 million 60-kg bags
- US green coffee stocks in port warehouses rose by 56,138 60-kg bags in August
- Vietnam’s coffee exports in August were 111,697 tonnes, down 8.7% m/m

Production

Brazilian coffee production in 2021/22 will reach 48.9 million 60-kg bags, the government's statistics institute IBGE said, which is 0.3% lower than its estimate in August and down 21.2% on the year due to the biennial arabica tree cycle. IBGE pegged arabica production in the current season at 33.6 million 60-kg bags, a cut of 0.4% from last month and down 29.6% on the year. Robusta (conilon) output was estimated at 15.3 million bags, up 6.3% on the year.

Demand

- US green coffee stocks in port warehouses rose by 56,138 60-kg bags during August 2021 to reach 6,130,484 bags at the end of the month, according to the Green Coffee Association (GCA). Stocks were down 9.1% or 614,852 bags from the same month a year ago.
- Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) signed a joint venture agreement with Japan-based green bean coffee merchant Zephyr Japan to catalyze the fast-growing Japanese specialty coffee market.

Trade

- Vietnam’s coffee exports in August 2021 were 111,697 tonnes (around 1.8 million 60 kg bags), down 8.7% from July but above 100,188 tonnes (1.6 million bags) in the same month last year. This brought total exports in the first 11 months of 2020/21 (October/September) to 1.3 million tonnes (23.1 million bags), down from 1.512 million tonnes (25.1 million) in the same period a year ago.
- Brazilian exports of green coffee in August 2021 fell by 28% from a year earlier to around 2.3 million 60-kg bags as difficulties to find containers and space at vessels increased, exporters association Cecafe said. This brought total green coffee exports so far in 2021/22 (April/March) to 13.2 million bags, down 11.7%.

Price

Arabica coffee future prices increased by Wednesday’s close (September 15), following a series of declines in the preceding sessions, while robustas remained on their upward trend. Dealers said prices were buoyed by strength in other commodities, but gains were capped by an improving outlook for next year’s harvest in Brazil, following recent rains. The benchmark December arabica coffee contract settled up 1.90 cent at 187.35 cents per pound in dealings between 185.15 and 188.25 cents. The benchmark November robusta contract settled up $19 at $2,082 per tonne, trading a $2,065-2,085 range.

Sep 17 - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- Brazil set for major surge in sesame seed output
- Indian cardamom crop forecast to increase substantially
- India bullish on dried ginger outlook
- Comoros cloves shipments are stuck

Production

- Brazilian 2020-21 sesame seed output is expected to treble y/ y to 127,500 tonnes, after the Indian government authorised imports of Brazil’s sesame in negotiations led by the Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro in January 2020.
- Paraguay’s 2020-21 sesame seed crop is forecast to total 70,000 tonnes, a volume similar to the previous season.
- India’s cardamom output may reach 30,000 tonnes in the 2021-22 season thanks to favourable rains in the kharif season, securing domestic supply, according to trading sources. Slowed shipments means that Indian traders have high carry-over stocks, especially for supplying processors. In addition, Guatemala’s crop may reach 34,000-36,000 tonnes if hurricanes do not hit orchards.

Demand

- Indian trade sources reported increased demand from China and Egypt for Indian Integrated Pest Management cumin. A significant quantity of conventional cumin cargoes have been rejected in these two countries due to high pesticide residue levels.
- There is also a lot of confidence within India of maintaining its lead as a supplier of dried ginger, with this origin now the most competitively priced. Rival supplier Nigeria was already facing logistical issues before the container situation worsened. This problem is expected to worsen during the next season making India the most favoured buyer for the world markets.
- Indian guar gum is maintaining a decent level of export demand as shown by the H1 2021 statistics.
- Trade sources this week recalled a “demand frenzy” for the new crop of Comoros cloves, but as major shipping companies avoided berthing at Comoros port in August, all shipments have been stuck.

Trade

- Brazil’s sesame seed exports fell by 3% y/y to 22,430 tonnes from January-August 2021, worth $24.5 million 2% more. The main importers were Turkey, Guatemala and India, accounting for 26%, 24% and 17%, respectively.
- Paraguayan sesame seed exports fell by 8% y/y to 26,960 tonnes and fell by 10% in value to $39.2 million in January-August 2021.
- Indian guar gum exports were 105,000 tonnes, worth $134.2 million, in H1 2021, 4% y/y more in volume but 2% less y/y in value. The US, Germany and China accounted for 30%, 14% and 13%, respectively, of the total exported volume.
- There have been problems with trade flows of new crop Comoros cloves.

Price

- India’s guar gum spot price was INR10,683 per quintal ($145.2/quintal) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 13 September, a quarter more than on 16 August, due to strong demand from the animal food industry.
- International cardamom prices might start a long-term bearish trend after being stabilised at $26,000/tonne cif Middle East for 8 mm. size between February-August 2021, according to IHS Markit. Prices fell to $24,000/tonne in the first fortnight of September.
- Indian cumin seed prices surged higher last month on speculation activities, driven by news of 50% below average rainfall in Gujarat state. The market has since calmed down and prices are expected to remain lacklustre on a good Indian crop and negligible demand.
- Despite the port bottleneck on Comoros cloves, prices fell instead of firming up. A good crop is expected from Madagascar at the end of September, which may further weaken international cloves prices.

Sep 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

On its first trading day, the new second month did not dare to conduct any major experiments. With about 25% of the total volume (17k lots), Mar 21 traded slightly firmer with a high of GBP 1811, but could do little against the emerging hedge pressure. The tenders against the expired Sep 21, at 70k mt similar to May, were primarily Cameroon, followed by Nigeria and IVC. The past few days do not allow much conclusion, at best daily lows higher than the previous day. Suitably, the shipping problems and impact on the stocks seem rather bullish in the short term, but of course these costs could also affect consumption at some point.

Sep 16 - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- USDA forecasts that the US peanut crop is likely to rise by 3% y/y
- China’s recovery demand will push up its purchases from Chilean, US and Australian raisins
- Vietnam’s cashew prices stabilised between May-August

Production

- US 2021 peanut production has been forecast at 6.35 billion pounds, 4% down from the previous estimate but 3% more y/y than the previous season, according to USDA.
- USDA estimates that China’s August 2021 raisin crop has reached 180,000 tonnes, a 20% rebound from the 150,000 tonnes of 2020, after Covid-19 restrictions have finished.

Demand

China’s domestic raisin consumption is forecast to rise to 181,000 tonnes in 2021-22 from 147,000 tonnes in the previous season, according to USDA. Imports will rise by 3,000 tonnes to 25,000 tonnes, snacks and food processing being the drivers of growth.

Trade

- California’s 2021-22 almond season (August 2021-July 2022) has started well in August with total shipments up 7.4% last month from the same month a year ago, at 207.35 million pounds versus 193.05 million lbs earlier. The first report of the new season from the Almond Board of California (ABC) showed that exports were 10.7% ahead at 140.8 million lbs from 127.1 million lbs in August 2020 while domestic shipments edged up 1% to 66.57 million lbs from 65.2 million lbs a year ago.
- Chile’s walnut exports reached 20,510 in-shell equivalent tonnes in August 2021, 9% more y/y, according to the Chilean Walnut Association (Chilenut). Seasonal (21 March-31 July) shipments totalled 98,000 tonnes, 15% more.
- Vietnam’s cashew exports increased by 21.4% y/y to 324,000 tonnes and by 14% in value to $1.97 billion in January-July 2021.
- Turkey’s dried fig exports reached 771 tonnes in the week ending on 11 September, 11% more y/y, bringing seasonal sales (30 September 2020-11 September 2021) to 64,740 tonnes valued at $233.3 million, 2% more y/y in volume and 5% more in value, according to Turkey’s Aegean Exporter Association (EIB).

Price

- Vietnam’s cashew prices have stabilised at $3.8/pound exw for 240s between May-August 2021, 12% more than in March 2021, when they dropped to $3.4/pound.

- Turkey’s weekly dried fig fob prices in the week ending on 11 September were:

    Whole dried figs, $3,790/tonne, unchanged m/m
    Cut dried figs, $2,341/tonne, 7% less y/y
    Paste, $1,348/tonne, 13% more y/y

Sep 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The Sep 21 disembarked with a volume of 340 lots without much excitement, leaving 7340 lots of open interest, which means that a good 73K mt will be tendered against Sep 21. From now on, the new ICE grading and tendering rules apply, above all the shifting of FOT costs to the tenderer in the case of later loading. Dec 21, new front month, tested GBP 1820 and found resistance from price hedges as expected. High 1823 / close GBP 1809; + GBP 16. Sentiment is otherwise bullish: structure remains inverted and continues to support an expandable long position of the managed money, deficit expectations of 150k mt for 2021/22, recovered grinds, good pre-sales, high freight rates. Let's wait and see...

Sep 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

London did not produce any events worth mentioning yesterday either, the marginal participation - 16k lots - says it all. Sep21 accounted for 2k of this on its last full day of trading, and 25% is also due to off-exchange transactions. NY could not revive the market either and only woke up in the evening, which caused the arbitrage to diverge and gave London some support. However, renewed origin selling provided sufficient resistance and the Dec 21 closed 8 points up at GBP 1793, again below the GBP 1800. What now? The markets are overbought and the low volume and thin range could - in theory - be telltale signs of an imminent breakout.

Sep 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With extremely low participation of just under 11k lots despite a GBP 24 range, the market recovered some of last week's losses yesterday. The 2nd month Dec 21 retested resistance at GBP 1800, but origin bids at these levels prevented further firming. Close GBP 1788 Dec 21; +8. Light volume in light of tomorrow's last trading day of Sep 21 does not seem out of the question. Yet the market is also completely ignoring fundamental news (IVC arrivals of 13k vs 7k mt last year and the post-energy crisis return of origin grind now +21.7% over PY/8.7% over prior month). Sep/Dec21 closed at GBP -50, while 3 BDUs Nigeria passed grading.

Sep 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

While the market was still clattering around at almost unchanged levels in the morning, there was a correction in quotations right on time for the official opening in New York at 2 pm. The origin made the start, and hedge pressure brought the first wave of selling into the market. The specs / funds, especially from NY, sought their fortune in flight and began to liquidate longs. The Dec 21 LDN lost almost GBP 50 at the peak, traded to a low of GBP 1778 and ended the day GBP -22 at GBP 1780. NY Dec 21 $-70 / $2603 closing price. Commitment of Traders as of 07.09. show a further increase in the combined net long position from 9,221 to now 85,163 lots. Many of them still well "in the money"!

Sep 10 - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- Colombian coffee output drops to 915,000 bags in August
- Japanese green coffee stocks fall to 9-year low
- Robusta coffee prices hit new four-year highs

Production

Colombian production of washed arabica coffee in August 2021 reached only 915,000 60-kg bags, down 16.1% from 1.091 million in the same month last year and also below 1.209 million bags in July, the National Coffee Federation (Fedecafe) said. This was only the second time since April that the federation has published production data.

Demand

Green coffee stocks held in ports amounted to 2.743 million 60-kg bags at the end of July 2021, down from 2.793 million at the end of the previous month and 244,517 bags below the count at the same time last year, data from the All Japan Coffee Association show. This was the 16th straight month during which stocks were lower than in the same month last year and it is the lowest level for the month of July since 2012. Most of the beans were from Brazil, followed by Central America and Colombia.

Trade

- Members of the International Coffee Organization (ICO) exported 10.611 million 60-kg bags of coffee in July 2021, up 1.3% from 10.471 million in the same month last year. This brought total exports in the first nine months of 2020/21 (October/September) to 108.920 million bags, up 2.1% from 106.632 million in the corresponding period a year ago.
- Colombian exports in August reached 1.132 million bags, the federation said, practically unchanged from 1.131 million the same month last year. This brought total shipments in the first 11 months of 2020/21 (October/September) to 11.698 million bags, down 0.3% on the year.

Price

Robusta coffee futures hit new four-year highs this week of $2,123 per tonne. Dealers said the spread of COVID-19 in Vietnam and measures to slow its spread were prompting concerns there may be disruptions to shipments with the harvest due to begin around November, while there also continued to be shipping bottlenecks due to a shortage of containers. Vietnam dealt successfully with the virus for much of the pandemic but the virulent Delta variant has proved more challenging in recent months. The benchmark November robusta contract settled up $20 at $2,102 per tonne on Tuesday (September 7), after trading a $2,087-2,123 range, beating the prior session’s four-year high of $2,094.

Sep 10 - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- Wildfires have destroyed 10,000 tonnes of the Greek honey crop
- 31% growth in Mexican honey exports
- Gradual rise in Indian coriander prices thanks to domestic demand recovery

Production

- India’s 2020-21 coriander crop is likely to increase by 17% y/y to 822,210 tonnes (based on a 19% increase in area to 628,600 hectares), according to the Spices Board of India.
- Portugal’s 2020 honey output reached 9,817 tonnes, 3% less y/y, according to the government.
- Summer wildfires have destroyed 10,000 tonnes of the Greek honey crop, according to the EU farming association Copa-Copega. The island of Evia, one of the most affected areas, accounts for a third of domestic production, which averages 20,000-24,000 tonnes annually.

Demand

- The strong rise in demand for guar gum from India’s animal food industry has favoured the development of a guar price index in India called Guarex.
- The global vaccination process and the Diwali festival’s (India, November) campaign has favoured a sharp rise in demand for spices such as turmeric and coriander.

Trade

- India’s coriander exports rose by 15% y/y in volume to 23,740 tonnes and by 20% in value to $29.2 million.
- India’s pepper exports increased by 43% in volume to 11,260 tonnes, worth USD45.8 million (+57% y/y) in H1 2021. The US was the biggest importer, accounting for 37% of the total volume.
- Mexico’s honey exports rose by 31% y/y to 17,600 tonnes and doubled to $64 million in H1 2021 thanks to a combination of a high crop and rising price. The main importers were Germany and the US, taking 49% and 12% respectively of the total volume.
- Ethiopia’s sesame seed exports reached 100,000 tonnes in H1 2021, worth $150 million, a third less y/y in volume and value. The main importers were the UAE, Israel and Vietnam, accounting for 30%, 25% and 11% respectively of the total volume.

Prices

- Ethiopia’s sesame seed prices reached $1,360/tonne fob for Whitish Wollega Grade 3-5 this August, $30 up from July due to rising sea freight costs.
- India’s black pepper prices have been stable at USD5,500/tonne ex-works nw Europe for MG1 grade since April.
- The Indian coriander spot price was INR8,144 per quintal (USD111.3/quintal) at Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 6 September, 11% more than on 9 August, as domestic demand is gradually recovering after the government eased Covid-19 restrictions.

Sep 10 - Market Briefing: Cocoa (IHSmarkit)

- Ivory Coast’s guaranteed farmgate price should be CFA825-850
- German confectionery export sales to UK fell by 11.8% in Q1
- Cocoa powder prices see first hike in 18 months

Production

- Ivory Coast’s guaranteed farmgate price to cocoa farmers for the 2021/22 main crop should be CFA825-850 ($1.51-1.55), down 15%-17% from last season’s price of CFA1,000, according to local sources. The country also achieved robust sales of cocoa bean export contracts for the upcoming season, with 1.64 million-1.66 million tonnes sold by the end of August, said sources at the Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) regulator and exporters. Contract sales reached 1.46 million tonnes for the main crop and 180,000-200,000 tonnes for the intermediate crop.
- Brazilian cocoa deliveries soared by 101% w/w and 164% y/y, to 183,998 60-kilo bags (11,040 tonnes) in the week ending August 29, according to Bahia Commercial Association.
- Ghana’s cocoa board purchased 1.03 million tonnes of cocoa from farmers in the season from October 1 to August 19; the most in a decade.

Demand

- US retail sales of chocolate confections in the four weeks through Aug 8 rose +6.3% y/y, said IRI. Fitch Solutions said the demand pick-up in cocoa, however, was still slow relative to other commodities due to its reliance on a travel sector constrained by the pandemic.
- Barry Callebaut closed the acquisition of Europe Chocolate Company (ECC), a Belgian privately-owned B2B manufacturer of chocolate specialties and decorations this week.

Trade

Export sales from the German confectionery industry to the UK fell by 11.8% in the first quarter of 2021. Around 5% of German production of chocolate, sweets, biscuits and the like depends on the British market. Earlier this month, the latest figures from the Food and Drink Federation (FDF) also showed that exports of British chocolate to the EU are down 18.5% y/y in the first half of 2021, compared to the same period in 2020.

Price

- Cocoa powder prices rose considerably in August to 130.75 cents per pound, after staying at 95 cents for the last 1½ years, according to IHS Markit. Cocoa butter prices also increased in August to 284 cents per pound, up 21.4 cents.
- London cocoa scaled six-month peaks this week, with December London cocoa closing at £1,815 pounds per tonne on Monday (September 6), having scaled its highest since early March at £1,818. The premium for December cocoa over March is near its highest since mid-March, with many expecting supplies to tighten in the October-September 2021/22 season.

Sep 10 - Market Briefing: Sugar (IHSmarkit)

- Thailand to produce 100 million tonnes in 2022/23, minimum cane price THB1,000/tonne
- Chinese sugar deliveries from domestic producers in August 2021 were just 902,800 tonnes
- Philippines will not export sugar this crop year amid expected lower output

Production

- The Thai Sugar Mills Corporation confirmed that it aims to return to a production level of 100 million tonnes in 2022/23 against 87-90 million forecast for 2021/22. In 2020/21, only 67 million tonnes were processed. At the same time, the TSMC announced that it would continue to pay a minimum cane price of THB1,000 per tonne in 2022/23 with a sugar content of 10 ccs.
- Russian farmers harvested 3.8 million tonnes of sugar beet from 95,900 ha as of 8 September. The ministry did not give comparative data for last year but our records show that 3.4 million tonnes of beet had been harvested from 91,800 ha as of the same day last year. The data suggest a rise of the average beet yield to 39.6 tonnes per ha from 37.3 a year ago.

Demand

Chinese sugar deliveries from domestic producers in August 2021 were just 902,800 tonnes, down from 1,029,600 in July and also sharply below 1,064,200 tonnes in the same month last year, China Sugar Association (CSA) data showed. This brought total sugar deliveries in the first 11 months of 2020/21 (October/September) to 8,764,500 tonnes, down slightly from 9,021,400 in the same period last year.

Trade

The Philippines will not export sugar this crop year amid expected lower output, according to the Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA). On 31 August, SRA already formally issued Sugar Order (SO) 1, which contains the agency’s production estimate for the current crop year as well as its market allocation. SRA fears that the reemergence of the La Niña phenomenon, will lead to a low sugar recovery. As a result, SRA heeded to the recommendation that all the country’s sugar output will go to the ‘B’ sugar allocation, which is meant for the domestic market, and that zero will be allotted to ‘A’ sugar, which is meant for sugar exports to the US. SRA’s pre-milling estimate for raw sugar production in 2021/22 is 2.09 million tonnes.

Price

Raw sugar futures in New York settled generally lower this week and even touched a two-week low on Tuesday (September) as trade resumed after a public holiday in the US on Monday. The benchmark contract for October delivery shed 14 points to settle at 19.48 cents per pound, only fractionally above an intraday low of 19.44 cents, which was the lowest level for the contract in two weeks.

Sep 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The slightly firmer opening due to tentative speculative buying did not hold for long. On the highs at GBP 1827, the second month came under significant pressure and kept the activists from the managed money corner in check. Residual price hedges and of course a firm British Pound thus erased the first half week's firming in just two trading days. The recently frequently mentioned GBP 1800 base of Dec21, persistent resistance of the previous weeks, now presents itself textbook-like as current technical support, the Dec 21 said goodbye with GBP-19 at 1802 into the evening. The Sep 21 expiring next week traded in a range of just under GBP 30 (volume 807 lots), but ultimately closed unchanged (GBP -2).

Sep 09 - India closed H1 with a strong growth in pepper exports (IHSmarkit)

- 43% increase in exports
- Sri Lanka was the main supplier

India’s exports increased by 43% in volume to 11,260 tonnes, worth USD45.8 million (+57% y/y) in H1 2021.

Crushed sales accounted for 54% of the total volume. The US was the main importer, accounting for 37% of the total volume.

Imports of whole product rose by 45% y/y in volume to 18,800 tonnes. Sri Lanka, Brazil and Vietnam were the main suppliers, accounting for 33%, 31% and 15%, respectively, of the total volume.

Indian prices have been stable at USD5,500/tonne ex-works nw Europe for MG1 grade since April, 19% more than in January 2021, according to IHS Markit.

Sep 09 - Sri Lankan desiccated coconut exports rise strongly (IHSmarkit)

- 8% growth in desiccated coconut exports
- 22% increase in coconut milk shipments 
- 2% increase in fresh coconut prices in official auctions

Sri Lanka’s desiccated coconut exports rose by 8% y/y in volume to 18,130 tonnes and value rose by 43% to LKR11.0 billion ($44.4 million) in January-July 2021, according to the Sri Lankan Coconut Development Authority (CDA).

The average fresh price closed at LKR53.7 per coconut in the Colombo coconut auction on 3 September, 2% more m/m, although still from the record of LKR63/coconut reached this May.

Wholesale desiccated coconut prices ranged from LKR500-540/kilo for fine and from LKR530-550/kilo, LKR20 more m/m.

Coconut milk exports totalled 30,470 tonnes, worth LKR11.68 billion from January-July 2021, 22% more y/y in volume and 48% more in value. Meanwhile, coconut milk powder reached 3,968 tonnes, valued at LKR4.5 billion, 2% more y/y in volume and 43% more in value.

Sep 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

For much of the day the market was in a state of shock and Dec 21 traded in a narrow range of GBP 8. It was not until late afternoon that some pressure came to bear on prices. Dec 21 traded to lows of GBP 1816 and ended the day GBP -14 at GBP 1821. No new insights or developments in either arbitrage, structure or news from the source. The market is waiting for Sep 21 to expire on 15.09. Then March 22 would be the second month and this is (currently) closer to the supports of GBP 1800 and GBP 1790 respectively.

Sep 08 - Ivory Coast cocoa export contracts sales strong for next season, CCC sources say

Ivory Coast has achieved robust sales of cocoa bean export contracts for the upcoming season, with 1.64 million-1.66 million tonnes sold by the end of August, sources at the Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) regulator and exporters said on Tuesday. Contract sales reached 1.46 million tonnes for the main crop and 180,000-200,000 tonnes for the intermediate crop, the sources.

Sep 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With well pre-sold origins and the resulting noticeable lack of hedging pressure, the market currently only knows the way up. Dec 21 traded high at GBP 1843, broke through the March highs at GBP 1822 and ended the day GBP +21 at GBP 1835. Technically, there would now be room to GBP 1870 and GBP 1900. The strongly negative arbitrage (GBP -125 / Dec 21) activated further fresh speculative longs in London. After the long weekend, New York also started the week firmly. At $2711, the second month marked a 21-month high. Closing Dec 21 NY $+50 at $2704. One now (eagerly) awaits positive reports from the origin for the upcoming new crop, a correction should then be in the air

Sep 07 - Sharp rise in Indian coriander prices (IHSmarkit)

- Campaign to cover the demand for coriander in the Diwali festival has started
- Futures prices peak at INR8,956/quintal for deliveries in December

The Indian coriander spot price was INR8,144 per quintal (USD111.3/quintal) at Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 6 September, 11% more than on 9 August, as domestic demand is gradually recovering after India's government eased Covid-19 restrictions.

Processors and traders are launching offers to cover the demand for the Diwali festival (November).

The 2020-21 crop is expected to increase by 17% y/y to 822,210 tonnes on 628,600 hectares, 19% more, according to the Spices Board of India (SBI).

Indian exports rose by 15% y/y in volume to 23,740 tonnes and by 20% more in value to $29.2 million, according to customs data.

The main importers were Malaysia, Nepal and the UAE, which took 24%, 14% and 9.5%, respectively, of the total volume.

The updated daily futures market price on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) was:
- Deliveries in August 2021 closed at INR7,600/quintal on 20 August 2021, 10% more than on 21 July

Sep 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The weakly expected opening was defied by London, which traded without the participation of the New York market yesterday, and marked new highs of GBP 1818 basis second month soon after opening in a wave of largely speculative buying. Although resistance was eventually offered through price hedges against origin covering, the weaker British pound largely prevented a correction. Dec 21 closed just below the highs at GBP 1814 (+13). Interestingly, the Sep/Dec21 spread, which had narrowed to GBP -3 on Friday, widened again sharply to -46. However, not a single lot has been graded since the beginning of the month and the Sep 21 expires next week.

Sep 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the previous day's strong upward movement, the week also ended on a firm note, albeit in much calmer waters. Dec 21 broke through the previous week's highs (GBP 1810) and traded to highs of GBP 1812, closing GBP +4 at GBP 1801, above the GBP 1800 mark. New York was much more active, with Dec 21 ending the day $ +43 at $ 2654. The Dec 21 arbitrage widened to GBP -114 from GBP -70 a month ago. Commitment of Traders as of 31.08 show an interesting picture: While London increased by a good 10k lots, the position decreased by 6k lots. In net terms, both markets have a long position of 75,942 lots. Theoretically, London should soon follow suit...but only in theory.

Sep 03 - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- Indian chilli planted area projected to rise up to 30%
- Italy faces decline in honey output
- Indian boosts cumin seed exports

Production

- The Indian farming industry has announced that bearing acreage for guar seeds and gum might fall between 30-40% y/y to 1.5-1.6 million hectares, after low prices in previous years.
- Indian chilli sowings are expected to finish in Andhra and Telangana (South) this month. High temperatures damaged 5-10% of sown plants. This means many famers delayed sowing in irrigated areas of Karnataka from three-four weeks to avoid unseasonal rains during the fruiting stage.
- The Indian chilli acreage might rise by 30% y/y to 52,000 hectares.
- Italy’s 2021 honey output might fall by a quarter from the annual average of 15,000 tonnes due to unfavourable weather, with warm temperatures in winter, frosts in spring and heatwaves in summer, according to the Italian Farming Confederation (Coldiretti).

Demand

- Demand for Indian guar gum and seeds recovered strongly in the third quarter of this year and exports are gradually rising.
- The country’s cumin seed is also attracting more overseas buyers based on export statistics for the first four months of this year (see Trade below).
- Overseas demand for Indian sesame seed is reasonably steady, with exports only slightly lower for the first five months of this year (also see Trade below).
- Italy will have to import 10,000 tonnes of honey to secure domestic consumption.

Trade

- Indian sesame seed exports were 101,500 tonnes, worth $159.7 million, in January-May 2021, 5% less y/y in volume and 16% less in value. The main importers were South Korea, the US, Russia and Taiwan, which took 19%, 10%, 6% and 5%, respectively, of the volume.
- Imports reached 15,530 tonnes in January-May 2021, six times less y/y. The main suppliers were Brazil and Sudan, which accounted for 60% and 14%, respectively, of the total volume.
- Indian cumin seed exports rose by a third y/y to 120,790 tonnes, worth $213.3 million, 19% more y/y in value, from January-April 2021. China was the main importer, taking 35% of the total exported volume.

Price

- India’s new sesame seed (whitish) spot price was INR10,250 per quintal ($140.3/quintal) at Unjha wholesale market (Gujarat, North East) on 2 September, 12% higher than on 3 August.
- India’s cumin seed spot prices rose by 6% to INR14,572 per quintal ($199.4/quintal) at the Unjha market (Gujarat, North West) between 2 August-1 September, despite weak domestic demand thanks to high exports.
- India’s National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) has launched a sectoral index price called Guarex, based on the futures contracts of guar gum refined splits and guar seeds on a real-time basis.
- Guar seed and gum prices might be volatile between 2021-22 due to a projected fall in planted area (see Production above) and demand from the animal feed industry in particular after weak purchases from the US oil industry between 2020-21.

Sep 03 - Market Briefing: Cocoa (IHSmarkit)

- Global cocoa supplies set for a 230,000-tonne surplus for 2020/21
- World cocoa production seen at 5.141 million tonnes
- Grindings set for 3.3% y/y rise to 4.860 million tonnes

Production

The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has placed global cocoa supplies at a 230,000-tonne surplus for 2020/21, compared with its earlier projection of 165,000 tonnes. The reason for the upgraded surplus is another expected global record in cocoa production of 5.141 million tonnes, compared to its previous estimate of 5.024 million tonnes. A major revision in production has been made for Ghana (up by 90,000 tonnes to 1.040 million tonnes). Cameroon and Ecuador have also been adjusted upwards by 10,000 tonnes each to 290,000 tonnes and 350,000 tonnes respectively. At regional level, production is expected to be above the previous year’s levels by 11% in Africa to 3.975 million tonnes, and in Asia and Oceania slightly up by 1.1% to 281,000 tonnes. Production in the Americas is forecast to be down by 2% to 885,000 tonnes.

Demand

- The ICCO also revised its grindings forecast for the 2020/21 season and volumes now expected to rise by 3.3% 4.860 million tonnes. Regionally, the Americas is forecast to take the first position, up by almost 7% to 961,000 tonnes, followed by Asia and Oceania with a 5% increase to 1.164 million tonnes. Steady progress is foreseen in Europe with an increase of almost 2% to 1.734 million tonnes and a 1% rise to 1.001 million tonnes in Africa.
- Barry Callebaut is to continue supplying liquid chocolate and finished products to Hershey in a renewed agreement, which will enable both companies to continue to drive long-term growth in North America.

Trade

- Nigeria, the world’s fourth-largest cocoa producer, reported its July cocoa exports fell -2.4% y/y to 15,197 tonnes.
- Brazilian cocoa imports are cumulatively soared by 713% y/y up until August 22, to reach 353,739 60-kilo bags (21,224 tonnes). This is despite no imports being reported for several weeks.

Price

Cocoa prices fell to three-week lows this week on the back of bullish supply data from the ICCO. December New York cocoa closed down $2 to $2,538 by Wednesday’s (September 1) close, extending Tuesday’s losses, where the contract had already tumbled by $57 to $2,540. By Thursday, New York cocoa saw a moderate recovery, after a fall in the dollar index to a four-week low, sparked short-covering in futures.

Sep 03 - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- 15% fall in the US walnut crop due to frosts and drought
- California’s raisin industry closed the 2020-21 season with a 11% fall in shipments
- Ferrero announced its purchasing prices for Turkish hazelnuts

Production

- California’s 2021 walnut crop is expected to fall by 15% y/y to 670,000 (short) tons on 385,000 bearing acres (+1% y/y) due to frosts and severe drought. Widespread freezing temperatures in the autumn of 2020 resulted in frost damage to walnut orchards across the state. Growers reported the frost damage delayed leaf out and reduced nut set in affected orchards.
- High temperatures and increasingly smoky skies dominated California’s Central Valley for much of August, benefiting the almond crop. Daily maximum temperatures reached their greatest values during the first two weeks of the month, with readings ranging from 92-102ﹾ F degrees in the Sacramento Valley and 95-105ﹾ F in the southern San Joaquin Valley.
- The Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District board voted to end water on 1 October, one month before the traditional irrigation season in the US state of New Mexico. This means that hundreds of farms will suffer a water shortage, hitting pecan orchards.
- The US peanut crop continues to make favourable overall progress with 64% now rated in good condition.

Demand

- The coconut processor Axelum, listed on the Philippine Stock Exchange, reported that its revenues reached PHP3.10 billion ($66.3 million) in H1 2021, 30% more y/y, thanks to rising demand.
- Demand for almonds is still strong, favouring product launches. Almonds have retained their top spot as the most popular nut in new product introductions across Europe in 2020 with nearly 6,000 introductions – a 7.5% increase from 2019, according to new data from Innova Market Insights’ Global New Product Introductions Report.

Trade

California’s raisin shipments fell by 11% year-on-year to 19,790 (short) tons this July, closing the 2020-21 season (August-July) with 256,370 tons, 6% less y/y. Natural seedless accounted for 89% of the total sold volume.

Price

Ferrero has announced its purchasing price for in-shell Turkish hazelnuts: TRY25/kg ($3.00) (TR Y25.25/kg for first class products). The domestic market is at TRY25.5/kg and the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) is at TRY26.5/kg (TRY27/kg for Giresun). Trading sources observed that most sellers and producers had already taken into account the purchasing price of around TRY25/kg. Turkish lira exchange value against US dollar and old carry-over stocks will be essential to fix prices in the mid-term.

Sep 03 - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- Brazilian green coffee exports in August 2021 totalled 172,424 tonnes
- European green coffee stocks fell to 866,538 tonnes
- Robusta coffee prices advanced to four-year highs

Production

Progress with the Brazilian 2021/22 coffee harvest stood at 97% as of 31 August 2021, up one percentage point on the prior week and in line with the historical average, local consultancy Safras & Mercado reported. Progress with arabica stood at 96%, against 93% in the prior week and a historical average of 97%. The robusta harvest is already finished. Safras’ data translate into 55 million 60-kg bags out of 56.5 million harvested.

Demand

Green coffee stocks held in port warehouses across Europe fell to 866,538 tonnes (14.442 million 60-kg bags) at the end of June 2021 from 873,177 (14.553 million bags) in the previous month and 877,469 tonnes (14.624 million bags) at the same time last year, data from the European Coffee Federation (ECF) show. Robusta coffee stocks are down at 314,747 tonnes from 347,673 at the same time last year, while washed arabica stocks are down at 265,283 tonnes from 308,250. On the other hand, inventories of natural arabica beans are up at 286,508 tonnes from 221,546 a year ago.

Trade

- Brazilian green coffee exports in August 2021 totalled 172,424 tonnes, around 2.874 million 60-kg bags, down from 191,124 tonnes or 3.185 million bags in the same month last year, data from the Trade Ministry show. Exports so far in the current April/March cycle fell 8.2% to 13.819 million bags.
- Honduran coffee exports in August 2021 were up 145% from a year earlier at 450,424 60-kg bags. Shipments rose on greater supply and stronger demand, according to IHCAFE. Exports during the first 11 months of the current 2020/21 season were 5.67 million bags, up 5.6%. At the start of the season, IHCAFE forecast that exports would reach 6.28 million bags when it ends in September. That compares with 5.51 million bags shipped during the 2019/20 cycle.

Price

Robusta coffee prices advanced to four-year highs this week, as there is strong substitution demand for robusta at the moment. This is due to the recent surge in prices for arabica coffee after frost damage to Brazil's crop. Meanwhile, robusta supplies are tightening amid shipping congestion and coronavirus lockdowns in Vietnam. The benchmark robusta contract for November delivery settled up $8 from Friday at $2,026 per tonne by Monday (August 30), after trading a $2,011-2,070 range (the latter being a new four-year high).

Sep 03 - Market Briefing: Sugar (IHSmarkit)

- China’s beet sugar production in 2021/22 could decrease to around 990,000
- EU sugar stocks totaled 4.800 million tonnes at the end of June
- Brazil exported 2,595,408 tonnes of sugar in August

Production

- China’s beet sugar production in 2021/22 could decrease by up to 540,000 tonnes to around 990,000. The main factor behind the decline are crop competition and rising land prices. Total production is estimated 10.36 million tonnes, an increase of 300,000 compared to last year. Lower beet production is expected to be compensated for by higher replanting in Yunnan province and higher yields in Guangxi.
- Ukraine is likely to produce 1.4 million tonnes of beet white sugar. This would be up on 1.00 million in 2020/21, and together with 422,000 tonnes of sugar in stocks, will be more than enough to cover demand, which is put at 1.25 million. A higher area sown to beet and better yields are the main drivers for the increase in output.

Demand

- There were 4.800 million tonnes of sugar stored at the end of June 2021 at EU sugar producers and refiners, down from 6.102 million a month earlier and down from 6.626 million at the same time last year. EU stocks tend to rise between the end of September and end-January and are in reverse gear in the intercrop period. Yet, this is the lowest level for the month since 2017 when they were 4.090 million tonnes (including the UK).

Trade

- Brazil exported 2,595,408 tonnes of sugar in August 2021, down from 3,139,009 tonnes in the same month last year, government data show. Shipments were somewhat higher than the 2,468,753 tonnes in June as production is gathering pace.
- Pakistan could have as much as 1.5 million tonnes of sugar available for export in 2021/22, as production is likely to increase to 6.5 million. Pakistan is also expected to import far less than the targeted 600,000 tonnes due to rising global market prices.

Price

Raw sugar futures in New York ended higher by Thursday (September 2) following higher oil prices and the perception that supplies in Brazil will be tight following disappointing export sales in August. October raw sugar settled up 0.23 cent, or 1.2%, at 19.90 cents per pound after trading a 19.62 to 19.94 cent range. March was up 0.18 cent at 20.62 cents and the rest of the board added 0.20 to 0.38 cent in volume of 172,057 lots. Dealers said high freight rates had reduced the appetite to take delivery against the October contract, which expires at the end of this month.

Sep 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The opening, which was indecisive for a short while, was followed by lively covering at the recently attractive levels. The erratic rally continued throughout the day and New York merely added fuel to the London fire (itself marching even more aggressively upwards). The second month Dec21 gained GBP 42 in the meantime, but finally found its master at - you guessed it - good old GBP 1800. Close just below at GBP 1797, still 38 points up. The focus was on the front Sep/Dec21 spread, which narrowed to GBP -3 (close-13). The Sep21 will be off the board in eight trading days, and Dec21 tenders will be subject to the new rules for tenders, for which the FOT costs will then be added.

Sep 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

For much of yesterday, further long liquidations put the market under considerable pressure. The Dec 21 traded down to lows of GBP 1740, losing a good GBP 30 from the highs. The industry woke up in the afternoon and accompanied the market with tentative price hedge buying, especially for next year's dates. Dec 21 made the corresponding turnaround and ended the day at GBP +2 at GBP 1759. For the time being, and especially with regard to more concrete outlooks for the new crop (there is still a lot of room for improvement here, especially from Ghana), the market remains the plaything of the specs, and overbought, as seen after the final rally, and oversold markets alternate regularly...

Sep 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the past few days of sideways movement, prices came under significant pressure in the afternoon. After a firm opening, there was soon good selling interest close to the good old GBP 1800 Dec21. Counteraction was found in particular in buying the Sep/Dec21 spread in light of the Sep21 options that expired yesterday. At times, the spread narrowed by 25 points (closing GBP -38). The beginning liquidation of the speculative long position, which had been significantly increased in the past three weeks, brought renewed pressure. The forecast of the ICCO, which was expected in the evening and which increased its surplus expectation by 65k mt to 230k mt, was possibly also responsible for the losses of the day - close Dec21 GBP 1757 / -24).

Aug 31 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

As London did not participate in the events due to the holiday, New York also treated itself to a sluggish trading day and did not even trade 15k lots. Thus, there was no reaction to the Commitment of Traders figures from the weekend (close Dec 21 NY $2597; +15). As of Tuesday, the industry had further extended its shorts in London, but slightly reduced them in New York. The Managed Money sector behaved in the opposite way. The specs slightly covered new shorts in New York, but increased their long position in London. On balance, Managed Money now holds a good 40k lots net long. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire at the end of last week were up 4.7% on the previous year at 2.1 million tonnes

Aug 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With a view to the long weekend in the UK (London remains closed today due to the "Late Summer Holidays"), one could theoretically have expected a surprise. However, the day was largely quiet. The Dec 21 traded in a range of GBP 1778/1800 and ended the day at GBP -16 at GBP 1781. The LDN / NY arbitrage converged by a good GBP 20 and traded at a discount of GBP -94. The Commitment of Traders figures as of 24.08. also bring little new insight with an increase in the net long position of 9,517 lots (combined net now 71,376 lots).

Aug 27 - Market Briefing: Cocoa ( IHSmarkit )

- Global cocoa market surplus at 200,000 tonnes for 2020/21
- World cocoa grindings at 4,814,000 tonnes for 2020/21
- Cocoa graded by the ICE Futures Europe up by 14% y/y

Production

- The global cocoa market is now expected to see a surplus of 200,000 tonnes in 2020/21, down from 220,000 tonnes estimated a month ago, according to IHS Markit. In addition, for 2021/22, a surplus of 26,000 tonnes is forecast, down from 46,000 projected last month.
- Global cocoa production was left unchanged and set to surpass 5 million tonnes in 2020/21, with 2021/22’s output also still left at 4.9 million tonnes. Production for key producing countries also remain unchanged with Ivory Coast’s volumes seen at 2.2 million tonnes in 2020/21 and 2.16 million projected for the following season. Ghana’s output is also still pegged at 990,000 tonne for this season and seen lower for 2021/22 at 960,000 tonnes.

Demand

- IHS Markit now has world cocoa grindings at 4,814,000 tonnes for 2020/21 from 4,794,000 tonnes a month ago. Figures for 2021/22 were also adjusted to 4,899,000 tonnes, from 4,879,000 last month.
- BDSI reported significant declines in Germany’s Q1 confectionary exports, to 531,105 tonnes; -4.4% y/y with export sales down by 3.6% to around €2.04 billion. The IRI reported that US retail sales of chocolate confections in the 4 weeks through July 11 rose +5.8% y/y.
- Ivory Coast cocoa grinders processed 452,000 tonnes of beans by the end of July, down from 469,000 tonnes over the same period last season. However, on a month-on-month basis, cocoa grind rose 6.4% to 50,000 tonnes in July compared with the previous month.

Trade

- Cocoa graded by the ICE Futures Europe (October 2020 – July 2021), reached 136,800 tonnes, up by 14% from 119,700 tonnes of cocoa graded over the same period in the previous season. The volume of Cameroonian cocoa beans at exchange gradings was slashed from 55,000 tonnes to 43,200 tonnes. Similarly, the volume of Togolese cocoa beans graded at the exchange was reduced from 4,980 tonnes to 3,240 tonnes, while cocoa beans from Ivory Coast slightly retreated from 33,530 tonnes to 33,180 tonnes. Other origins’ cocoa beans graded at the exchange shrunk from 3,650 tonnes to 2,220 tonnes. On the contrary, cocoa beans from Nigeria outstripped the previous year from 22,540 tonnes to 54,960 tonnes.
- Brazil’s cocoa exports fell by 11% y/y in volume and 7% y/y in revenue in July, to 4.506 tonnes and $15.6 million, squeezed by Bahia’s external demand, down 13% y/y and 7% y/y. Chocolate shipments tallied 3,180 tonnes and $11 million.
- Cameroon’s domestic traded cocoa volumes rose 16.4% to 292,471 tonnes in the 2020/2021 season compared with the same period a year ago.

Price

- December New York cocoa futures firmed up USD16 to USD2,570 per tonne on August 24, as strong demand continues to play on the minds of buyers. Meanwhile, December 2021 futures in London moved up a bit more cautiously by GBP4 to close at GBP1,780 per tonne. Strong global demand for cocoa has been driving prices upwards in the last month to short-term highs last week.
- Compared with the average price recorded during July 2020, prices for cocoa butter tumbled by 3% in Europe and by 6% in the US during July 2021. Indeed, prices for cocoa butter dropped from $5,257 to $4,920 per tonne in the US, whilst in Europe they ebbed from $5,128 to $4,999 per tonne.

Aug 27 - Market Briefing: Coffee ( IHSmarkit )

- Estimate of 20% and 30% of Brazilian coffee crop hit by frost.
- Vietnamese coffee exports in July 2021 amounted to 122,293 tonnes.
- US green coffee stocks in port warehouses rose by 294,885 60-kg bags during July.
- Robusta coffee price rises to four-year high.

Production

The worst frosts since 1994 are set to hit Brazilian coffee production for two years. Minasul coffee cooperative, estimated that between 20% and 30% of the crops were hit by the unusually cold temperatures that reached the region on 20 July. Coffee sales from the 2021/22 crop reached 53% as of 10 August, an increase of five percentage points from the previous month, according to local consultancy Safras & Mercado. This is above 51% at the same time last year and well above the 40% average of recent years, said the consultancy. Safras estimates that the country has already sold 30.17 million bags of this year’s production, which the consultancy estimates at 56.5 million bags.

Demand

- US green coffee stocks in port warehouses rose by 294,885 60-kg bags during July 2021 to reach 6,074,346 bags at the end of the month. The increase was also the largest monthly rise in stocks since May 2020, when the US were adopting harsh social distancing measures to deal with the coronavirus pandemic that included the closure of coffee shops. Stocks were down 13.9% or 980,003 bags from the same month a year ago.
- Green coffee stocks held in Japanese ports amounted to 2.793 million 60-kg bags at the end of June 2021, down from 2.863 million at the end of the previous month and 161,100 bags below the count at the same time last year. This was the 15th straight month during which stocks were lower than in the same month last year and it is the lowest level for the month of June since 2018.

Trade

- Ugandan coffee exports in July 2021 totalled 700,035 60-kg bags, up from 543,617 bags in the same month last year. This brought total coffee exports in the first 10 months of 2020/21 to 5,209,085 bags, up 20.2% from 4,334,706 in the same period a year ago. Robusta exports are up 41.3% at 4,629,226 bags from 3,491,991, while arabica shipments dropped 31.2% to 579,859 bags from 842,715.
- Vietnamese coffee exports in July 2021 amounted to 122,293 tonnes (around 2.038 million 60-kg bags), down 4.5% from the prior month but up from 110,028 tonnes (1.834 million bags). This brought total exports in the first 10 months of 2020/21 to around 1.280 million tonnes (21.329 million bags), down from 1.412 million tonnes (23.527 million) in the same period a year ago.

Price

World coffee futures posted further gains in late August with arabica prices rising to a two-week high and robusta beans hitting the highest price in four years as bullish sentiment prevails. The benchmark robusta contract for November delivery gained $21 to settle at $1,994 per tonne on 26 August. Market sources said the recent sharp rise in arabica prices had prompted roasters to look to increase the amount of robusta in blends where possible. Arabica futures in New York also strengthened in late August amid ongoing support from frost damage to Brazilian coffee trees. The most-active December contract rose by 1.65 cents to 188.00 cents per pound, while the March contract rose 1.60 cents to 189.65 cents per pound.


Aug 27 -Market Briefing: Sugar ( IHSmarkit )

- Brazil’s CS crushed 46.6 million tonnes of sugar cane in the second half of July.

- China’s sugar imports in July 2021 reached 430,000 tonnes.

- India’s sugar exports in 2020/21 will reach 7.15 million tonnes.

Production

Sugar mills in Brazil's Centre/South crushed 46.6 million tonnes of sugarcane in the second half of July, up from 45.6 million in the first half but down 8.2% from 50.8 million in the same period last year, Unica data showed. This brought total cane processing since the start of the season on 1 April to 304 million tonnes, down 7.3% from 327 million by the same time last year. A sample of 68 mills showed that the average cane yield reached just 73.7 tonnes per ha during July, a drop by 17.9% from 89.8 in the same month last year. This means that the yield drop accelerated in the second half of the month as the cane yield drop for the first half of July was previously reported at 14% (to 68.2 tonnes per ha from 79.0), while it was 11% during June. Asian commodities trader Wilmar, slashed its estimate for Brazil’s CS production, saying it only expects around 28 million tonnes of sugar in 2021/22 due to extensive damage to cane fields. Widespread frosts will result in lower agricultural yields leading to a cane crush of around 490-500 million tonnes, down from 605 million tonnes last season.

Demand

China’s sugar imports rose to 430,000 tonnes in July 2021 from 310,000 in the same month last year, official data show. They were also slightly higher than 420,000 tonnes in June. This brought total sugar imports in the first 10 months of 2020/21 (October/September) to a record 4.96 million tonnes, nearly twice as much as the 2.54 million imported in the same period a year ago.

Trade

- India's sugar exports in the current 2020/21 (October/September) season will reach 7.15 million tonnes and shipments next 2021/22 season are expected to be at least 6 million tonnes with global prices ruling near 4-1/2-year highs, according to the All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA). India is expected to withdraw sugar export subsidies from the new 2021/22 season beginning October as a sharp rise in global prices makes it easier for Indian mills to sell the sweetener on the world market.

- Japan’s ethanol imports in June 2021 amounted to 166,000 cubic metres, an all-time high, up from 126,014 in May and 160,497 one year earlier.

- Brazil exported 2,468,753 tonnes of sugar, in July 2021, down from 3,290,486 tonnes in the same month last year, government data show. Shipments were also significantly lower than 2,750,338 tonnes in June, which had been slightly higher than 2,714,111 tonnes in the same month in 2020.

Prices

Raw sugar futures in New York posted modest gains on August 26. The benchmark contract for October delivery added 15 points to settle at 19.73 cents per pound, in dealings between 19.42 and 19.83 cents. White sugar futures in London also ended higher with the most-active October contract rising by $1.30 to settle at $478.80 per tonne, having traded between $473.80 and $481.40. Second-month December rose $1.90 to $500.20 per tonne and the rest of the board finished between $1.80 up and 50 cents down. Trading volume declined to 6,346 contracts from 7,297. The October/October white sugar premium dropped to $43.83 per tonne from $45.83 a day earlier. The white sugar premium has fallen for six straight sessions after recovering to $60.03 per tonne on 17 August.

Aug 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday's trading day was also largely uneventful. Dec 21 found good resistance at GBP 1800, which also marked yesterday's high. Closing Dec 21 GBP +2 at GBP 1797. A rather disappointing week for many market participants. The reaction (whether up or down) to the Commitment of Traders figures was more than meagre. After all, today is Friday and that is (often) good for a surprise in the cocoa market.

Aug 26 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Immediately upon opening, the bulls jumped on the train with cautious buying. Thus, the Dec 21 directly marked its high for the day and at the same time its close of GBP 1795 (+15). We are heading back towards the 1800 level, which in recent days has always offered resistance through increased selling interest. The question remains where the trip will go. The origin has suspended its pre-selling or significantly increased the differentials. Significant hedge pressure can therefore not be expected (for the time being). However, many of the purchases made in recent weeks are still unfixed. At the moment, the majority is looking at specs with a wait-and-see approach. Their current long position seems clearly expandable, but at least for the moment a certain lethargy seems to prevail there as well.

Aug 27 - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- 6% fall in India’s cumin crop
- Robust demand from India’s animal feed industry is favouring recovery in guar gum prices
- 29% increase in Guatemala’s cardamom exports

Production

- India’s 2020-21 cumin crop is expected to reach 856,500 tonnes, 6% less y/y, on 1.24 million hectares, 30,000 less y/y.
- Wildfires have burned 1,600 sq.km of forest in Turkey’s Mediterranean (South) and Aegean (East) regions since 28 July, damaging pine forests used by beekeepers to feed their bees. The government reported that around 80% of beekeeping farms have been affected in Mugla (South East), which accounts for half of the total domestic crop.
- Severe drought has hit Bangladesh’s green chilli plantations, halving yield during the summer crop, which accounts for a quarter of the total annual output.
- India’s 2020-21 coriander crop is expected to increase by 17% y/y to 822,210 tonnes on 628,600 hectares, 19% more.
- Para’s (Brazil) pepper harvest will start in September. Its crop may range between 35,000-37,000 tonnes. Chinese and Indonesian white pepper crops have been downgraded due to unfavourable weather just before their harvests.

Demand

- Gradual recovery in essential oil consumption after the Covid-19 vaccination process is in full swing in the US and Europe in Q2 2021, as global leaders’ (IFF, Givaudan, Symrise, Firmenich, etc.) sales reveal.
- Chilli consumption is weak in Asian countries such as Malaysia, China and Bangladesh, due to Covid-19 restrictions. This means India’s chilli stocks have peaked at 800,000 tonnes, according to trading sources.
- India’s demand for spices is gradually recovering after the government eased Covid-19 restrictions, favouring rising sales of turmeric, coriander and cumin prices.
- Robust demand from the animal feed industry is fuelling India’s guar gum prices.

Trade

- India’s cumin seed exports doubled y/y to 100,000 tonnes, worth $196 million, two thirds more in value, from January-April 2021. China was the main importer, taking 35% of the total exported volume.
- Cambodia’s chilli international sales rose by 50% y/y to 67,540 tonnes from January-July 2021, Thailand taking 97% of the total. Thai importers are keeping an eye on Cambodia’s spices as farmers are not using pesticides, fulfilling Thailand’s MRL.
- Peruvian ginger exports rose 9% y/y in volume to 21,670 tonnes and by 17% in value to $43.6 million in January-July 2021.
- Vietnam’s pepper exports were 180,210 tonnes, worth $591.4 million, in January-July 2021, 2% less y/y in volume and 48% more in value, thanks to gradual growth in prices since January.
- Brazilian pepper international sales fell by 9% y/y in volume to 51,620 tonnes and by 32% in value to $145.5 million in January-July 2021.
- Argentina’s international honey sales fell by a quarter y/y in volume to 33,360 tonnes but increased by 26% in value to $121.7 million.
- Brazilian honey exports in H1 2021 rose by 55% y/y in volume to 31,460 tonnes and trebled in value to $108 million. The US was the main importer, accounting for 74% of the total volume.
- Guatemala’s cardamom exports reached 33,415 tonnes in H1 2021, worth $628.9 million, 29% more y/y in volume and 14% more in value.

Price

- The Indian coriander spot price was INR7,308 per quintal ($97.3/quintal) at Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 9 August, 6% more than on 8 July.
- Bangladesh’s green chilli prices reached TKY200/kilo ($1/kilo) in Dhaka, in the week ending 8 August, five times more w/w due to supply shortage.
- India’s guar gum spot price was INR8,363 per quintal ($112.6/quintal) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 16 August, 24% more than on 19 July, due to strong demand from the animal food industry.
- The Indian spot fob turmeric price reached INR7,583 per quintal ($102/quintal) at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, south central) on 18 August, 4% more than on 19 July.

Aug 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With a close at GBP 1780 / GBP +4, the Dec 21 ended the day almost unchanged. After the significant move in the Commitment of Traders position, the cocoa market gave us a well-deserved rest, the range of GBP 1772 - 1790 was not exhilarating either. Rumour has it (!) that both origins are much better sold than previously assumed, hedge pressure from the origin has also decreased significantly in the last few days. So the question of the next biggest move can be argued from both sides. The start of the new harvest and the end of the first month of Sep 21 is approaching, we hope for a reasonably clearer picture soon.

Aug 25 - Brazil farmers remove dead coffee trees, some switching to grains

Brazilian farmers who had coffee fields severely damaged a month ago by the worst frosts in 27 years have started taking out dead trees to make room for new plantings, with some of them planning to switch part of the affected land over to grains. Farmers in Brazil's Minas Gerais state, the top coffee area in the country, are pruning the trees impacted by the frosts and in some cases taking the trees out altogether, using tractors, when they see that the plant has died.

Aug 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The reaction to the large position change (especially the liquidation of a large part of the short position) was much more subdued than expected. London did open slightly weaker, hitting daily lows of GBP 1773 / Dec 21 in the morning, but then found itself waiting for its big brother from NY to open. The latter barely reacted and the rest of the day was subdued. Dec 21 ended the day GBP -14 at GBP 1776. Technically, GBP 1750 & GBP 1735 should be the next resistance levels. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as of 22.08 are at 2.144 mt vs. 2.043 mt from a year ago, up 4.9%.

Aug 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

On the last trading day of the week, the appetite for adventure dried up and instead people held back in anticipation of the Committment of Traders figures. The attempt to break out of the 1800 range once again never materialised; by midday just 2k lots were traded. Dec 21 closed at GBP 1790 (-11) after a tired range of GBP 19. The CoT then delivered on its promise. With a gain of 41k lots, the largest ever move, the net long position manifested itself at now 62k lots. The managed money fraction increased by +54k lots, bringing the net speculative long position to 45k lots. The counter-movement of the industry casts doubt on the claim that the pre-selling of the origin has ended.

Aug 20 - Market Briefing: Cocoa (IHSmarkit)

Production

The Bahian Association released its first estimate for Brazil’s main cocoa crop (from October to April), at 700,000-750,000 60-kilo bags (up to 45,000 tonnes) in Bahia state and 300,000-350,000 60-kilo bags (to 21,000 tonnes) in the northern state of Pará.

Ghana’s graded and sealed (G&S) cocoa arrivals stood at 1.026 million tonnes by August 10 since the start of the harvest on October 1. This was up 33.4% from 769,000 tonnes the previous season, figures from marketing board COCOBOD showed.

Demand

Ivory Coast’s cocoa regulator momentarily suspended forward cocoa sales for the 2021//22 season this week, however, attractive price levels persuaded them to resume hedging.

The Federal Association of the German Confectionery Industry (BDSI) reported significant declines in its confectionary exports, due to the effects of the Covid-19 on the global economy. A total of around 531,105 tonnes of confectionery and snacks were exported in the first quarter of 2021; -4.4% y/y with export sales down by 3.6% to around €2.04 billion.

Trade

Cocoa graded by the ICE Futures Europe (October 2020 – July 2021), reached 136,800 tonnes, up by 14% from 119,700 tonnes of cocoa graded over the same period in the previous season. The volume of Cameroonian cocoa beans at exchange gradings was slashed from 55,000 tonnes to 43,200 tonnes. Similarly, the volume of Togolese cocoa beans graded at the exchange was reduced from 4,980 tonnes to 3,240 tonnes, while cocoa beans from Ivory Coast slightly retreated from 33,530 tonnes to 33,180 tonnes. Other origins’ cocoa beans graded at the exchange shrunk from 3,650 tonnes to 2,220 tonnes. On the contrary, cocoa beans from Nigeria outstripped the previous year from 22,540 tonnes to 54,960 tonnes.

Price

Cocoa prices have been strong this week with the New York contract posting a new 5½-month high by Thursday’s (August 19) close. September New York cocoa closed up $11 to $2,641, while September London cocoa settled just £1 higher to £1,729. Overall, signs of stronger global demand have pushed cocoa prices higher over the past month. Based on this strength and a robust US dollar, Brazilian domestic prices last week rose from BRL193.00–204.00/15-kilo on August 9 to BRL204.00–212.00 ($2,593–2,695/tonne) by Friday (August 13).

Aug 20 - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

Production

The Turkish hazelnut 2021 crop is still expected to be between 810,000-850,000 tonnes but due to significant rain in the Black Sea region there is concern about the amount of rotten material that might appear in the crop. Harvesting started at the seaside regions about two weeks ago.

Spain’s almond crop reached 110,000 tonnes and Portugal reached 25,000-30,000 tonnes, both at record levels.

The US peanut crop continues to make good overall progress with 95% of peanuts now at the pegging stage and 60% rated in good condition.

Philippine production of desiccated coconut continues to be severely impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Manila is on heightened lockdown and moving around Manila and its suburbs is problematic, meaning some factory workers struggle to get to work easily.

Demand

Chile is experiencing strong overseas demand for its walnuts, as demonstrated by its seasonal upturn in sales (see Trade below).

Traders noted this week that the Spanish almond industry must increase its market share in new markets such as Latin America rather than being focused on Central Europe. This is indicated by Spain’s substantial carry-over stock (see Trade below).

UK desiccated coconut trader TM Duche, which represents Philippine producer Primex, warned this week with demand across Europe and the US still at record highs, even over the usually quieter summer months, it is now nearly full for November and December, and October shipments are sold out.

Trade

Chilean walnut exports reached 18,190 in-shell equivalent tonnes in July 2021, 8% less y/y, according to the Chilean Walnut Association (Chilenut). Seasonal (21 March-31 July) shipments totalled 77,770 tonnes, 17% more.

India and Turkey were the main importers of Chilean in-shell walnuts this July.

Chile has already committed 90% of its 2021-22 walnut crop although container congestion is delaying deliveries and pushing up prices just before the Diwali and Christmas campaigns start.

Spain’s almond industry is set to finish the 2020-21 season (September-August) with a carry-over stock of 25,000 tonnes after California has committed all its crop, according to trading sources.

Price

The Turkish Grain Board recently announced TRY26.5/kg ($3.12) as its purchasing price for Levant quality hazelnuts and TRY27 for Giresun quality.

Chilean in-shell and shelled fob walnut prices have risen by 20 US cents between July-August.

It has been suggested that Spanish almond prices must fall by 50 US cents per pound to take advantage of a lower US crop, forecast at 2.8 billion pounds, 10% less y/y.

Desiccated coconut prices look set for renewed upward pressure ahead as there is likely to be a struggle to get raw materials.

Aug 20 - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

 Production

Rising production costs are hitting Argentina’s processors as the citrus grower and processor Ledesma’s results reveal. Ledesma reported that its operating profit fell by 16.1% y/y to AR$3.89 billion ($40.1 million) in the FY2020-21 (June-May) due to Covid-19 restrictions and rising production costs. It produced 376 tonnes of essential oils.

France’s hemp planted acreage reached 17,900 hectares in 2020 and is expected to peak at 25,000-30,000 hectares in 2030, according to the USDA, after the Cassation Court has overturned a rule which banned the sale of CBD in June 2021, despite EU legalisation.

Demand

Rising US demand for CBD has made the fresh supplier Village Farms International acquire the CBD processor BHB for $75 million.

Robust demand from the animal feed industry is fuelling India’s guar gum prices.

Strong recovery in US and European demand is pushing up sales of essential oil and flavour multinational companies such as Firmenich (Switzerland) and Symrise (Germany).

Trade

Indian guar gum exports were 68,000 tonnes, worth $86.7 million, in January-April 2021, 3% y/y more y/y in volume but 6% less y/y in value.

Peruvian ginger exports rose 9% y/y in volume to 21,670 tonnes and by 17% in value to $43.6 million in January-July 2021.

Vietnam’s pepper exports were 180,210 tonnes, worth USD591.4 million, in January-July 2021, 2% less y/y in volume and 48% more in value, thanks to gradual growth in prices since January.

Brazilian pepper international sales fell by 9% y/y in volume to 51,620 tonnes and by 32% in value to $145.5 million in January-July 2021.

Prices

Vietnam’s black pepper prices closed at $4,100 per tonne cif nw Europe for min 550 g/l in the first half of August, $100 more than in July and $200 more than in June.

Guatemala’s cardamom prices have stabilised at $16,000 per tonne cif for mixed yellow quality 360 g/l between May-July.

India’s guar gum spot price was INR8,363 per quintal ($112.6/quintal) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 16 August, 24% more than on 19 July, due to strong demand from the animal food industry.

Aug 20 - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

Production

Brazilian coffee co-op Cooxupé reported that its members harvested 79.33% of their arabica plantations as of 13 August 2021, which is below 84.45% in the previous year and 94.31% in the previous off-year 2019/20. Coffee sales from the 2021/22 crop reached 53% as of 10 August, an increase of five percentage points from the previous month, with emphasis on the conilon variety, according to local consultancy Safras & Mercado. This is above 51% at the same time last year and well above the 40% average of recent years, said the consultancy. Safras estimates that the country has already sold 30.17 million bags of this year’s production, which the consultancy estimates at 56.5 million bags.

Demand

US green coffee stocks in port warehouses rose by 294,885 60-kg bags during July 2021 to reach 6,074,346 bags at the end of the month, according to the Green Coffee Association (GCA). The increase was also the largest monthly rise in stocks since May 2020, when the United States were adopting harsh social distancing measures to deal with the coronavirus pandemic that included the closure of coffee shops. Stocks were down 13.9% or 980,003 bags from the same month a year ago.

Trade

Ugandan coffee exports in July 2021 totalled 700,035 60-kg bags, up from 543,617 bags in the same month last year. This brought total coffee exports in the first 10 months of 2020/21 to 5,209,085 bags, up 20.2% from 4,334,706 in the same period a year ago. Robusta exports are up 41.3% at 4,629,226 bags from 3,491,991, while arabica shipments dropped 31.2% to 579,859 bags from 842,715.

Price

Arabica coffee futures ended lower by Thursday (August 19) with declines in other commodities spilling over to the coffee market as investors were spooked by weak economic signs and worries about rising cases of Covid-19. The benchmark arabica contract for December delivery ended down 1.55 cents at 181.30 cents per pound, in dealings between 178.25 and 182.35 cents. Front-month September shed 1.50 cents to 178.20 cents per pound and the rest of the board ended with losses between 1.15 and 1.85 cents. Trading volume increased to 53,830 lots from 36,351 a day earlier.

Aug 20 - Market Briefing: Sugar (IHSmarkit)

Production

USDA decreased US beet sugar production for 2020/21 by 51,945 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 5.063 million, mostly on a lower share of crop year 2021/22 beet sugar production occurring in August and September 2021. That portion of processor-reported decreases (50,000 STRV) stemming from later-than-anticipated harvest start dates is expected to be accounted for in the 2021/22 fiscal year. For 2021/22 sugar beet yield and area harvested forecasts in the August Crop Production report imply national sugar beet production at 33.710 million tons, slightly above the total for 2020/21. Assuming average recovery, shrink, and recovery from desugared molasses, 2021/22 crop year production is forecast at 4.988 million STRV.

Demand

China’s sugar imports rose to 430,000 tonnes in July 2021 from 310,000 in the same month last year, official data show. They were also slightly higher than 420,000 tonnes in June. This brought total sugar imports in the first 10 months of 2020/21 (October/September) to a record 4.96 million tonnes, nearly twice as much as the 2.54 million imported in the same period a year ago.

USDA increased US sugar imports for 2020/21 by 38,607 tons to 3.177 million. The raw sugar TRQ shortfall was reduced by 11,134 STRV to 75,721 after entry of sugar from the Philippines previously expected not to enter.

Trade

India's sugar exports in the current 2020/21 (October/September) season will reach 7.15 million tonnes and shipments next 2021/22 season are expected to be at least 6 million tonnes with global prices ruling near 4-1/2-year highs, according to the All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA). India is expected to withdraw sugar export subsidies from the new 2021/22 season beginning October as a sharp rise in global prices makes it easier for Indian mills to sell the sweetener on the world market.

Price

Raw sugar futures in New York ended with sharp losses by Thursday (August 19) on spillover pressure from falling crude oil prices as the sugar market continued to move up and down. The benchmark contract for October delivery shed 38 points to settle at 19.79 cents per pound, not far above the lower end of the day's 19.71-20.09 cents range. The contract had hit a 4-1/2-year high of 20.37 cents per pound on Tuesday.

Aug 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After an unchanged opening, London ignored the weaker GBP and came directly under pressure. The 2nd month lost GBP 18 instantly and could not recover. In fact, for the first time in 10 trading days, no new highs were marked, although currency support did kick in in the afternoon. But the GBP 1800 is standing firm; the Dec 21 GBP closed at GBP 1801/ GBP -4. Ghana has estimates its crop at an astonishing 1.06 million mt. In this context, the previous year's election campaign may be mentioned, in which fertiliser was distributed extensively to farmers in an attempt to win votes. Cameroon is also up, expecting around 292k mt vs. 251k mt last year. We wish you a pleasant weekend.

Aug 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

For most of the morning, the market was under pressure, presumably from further price hedging against origin cover. The Dec 21 lost just under GBP 10, but soon found support from speculative buying and the weakening British pound and climbed to GBP 1806. In the territory above the magic 1800 level, resistance was found, as in the previous days, through increased selling interest; close was thus at GBP 1800 Dec21 (+9). A sustainable breach of the technical mark of GBP 1800 has not yet been achieved, which leaves the door open to the south. The volume of the still unfixed covers remains unclear, which makes it difficult to assess the possible resistance in this regard.

Aug 19 - Sugar rally could help India to export 6 mln T without subsidy

India could export 6 million tonnes of sugar in the new season starting in October even without government subsidies, with global prices making overseas sales more lucrative after rising to their highest in 4-1/2 years, industry officials said on Wednesday. New Delhi is expected to withdraw sugar export subsidies from the new season as a sharp rise in prices makes it easier for Indian mills to sell on the world market, the most senior civil servant at the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution told Reuters on Tuesday.

Aug 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

For most of the morning, the market was under pressure, presumably from further price hedging against origin cover. The Dec 21 lost just under GBP 10, but soon found support from speculative buying and the weakening British pound and climbed to GBP 1806. In the territory above the magic 1800 level, resistance was found, as in the previous days, through increased selling interest; close was thus at GBP 1800 Dec21 (+9). A sustainable breach of the technical mark of GBP 1800 has not yet been achieved, which leaves the door open to the south. The volume of the still unfixed covers remains unclear, which makes it difficult to assess the possible resistance in this regard.

Aug 18 - India likely to withdraw sugar export subsidies from new season

India is expected to withdraw sugar export subsidies from the new season beginning October as a sharp rise in global prices makes it easier for Indian mills to sell the sweetener on the world market, a top government official said on Tuesday. "The government is not considering any subsidy at the moment for next year," Sudhanshu Pandey, the most senior civil servant at the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, told Reuters in an interview. 

Aug 18 - Renewable fuel companies edge out some refiners on feedstock

Both renewable fuel processors and oil refiners are trying to profit off the growing market for sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel, but high prices for feedstocks like soybean oil has been more of a hazard for refiners, as their most recent earnings showed. These renewable fuel products are a fraction of overall sales of gasoline, diesel and other products, but it is growing.

Aug 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Immediately after opening, new spec buying brought significant support. Dec 21 broke Friday's highs (GBP 1789), triggering even further speculative buying. Dec 21 came under pressure in the afternoon after GBP 1800 resistance was breached and tech selling - and apparently hedge selling against origin cover - kicked in. Not surprisingly, the origin continues to pre-sell at these attractive levels, contrary to proclamations. On balance, an eventful day with an unchanged close (Dec 21 GBP 1791 / +3). Ghana reports having processed 350,000mt since the beginning of the season, an increase of +21% (!) compared to the previous year, which is attributed to promotion programmes but also to the current logistical problems.

Aug 17 - Indian mills gear up to make raw sugar for export as global prices rally

Indian mills are planning to make raw sugar at the beginning of the new marketing season starting Oct. 1 as a rally in global prices to 4-year highs boosts demand for so-called raws from overseas, six industry officials told Reuters. Indian mills traditionally produce white sugar for local consumption and make small amounts of raw sugar for exports.

Aug 17 - If your coffee's going downhill, blame climate change

Coffee leader Brazil is turning to stronger and more bitter robusta beans, which are hardier in the heat than the delicate arabica, in a sign of how climate change is affecting global markets - and shaping our favourite flavours. Brazil is the world's biggest producer of arabica, yet its production has stayed largely flat over the last five years.

Aug 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Towards the weekend, London lost significant volume (27k lots), but continued to firm undeterred. Open interest, however, declined noticeably and buyers shifted down a gear. The 2nd month nevertheless marked a new high for the year (GBP 1789), Dec 21 closed GBP 19 up, just below GBP 1788. The CCC in Côte d'Ivoire is currently suspending pre-sales, according to unnamed sources, with 100k mt of upcoming mid-crop now sold. If true, any hedging pressure should decrease. However, the commercial traders report - mind you as of Tuesday 10.8. - almost 13k lots of new shorts (total now 21k net short), while the managed money shorten their net short position by almost 20k lots (-19k net short).

Aug 13 - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

Production

A preliminary assessment by Brazil’s federal government indicated that recent frost may have reduced next year's arabica coffee production by up to 10 million 60-kilo bags. Brazilian coffee growers are heading into the final days of this season's harvesting, having collected 89% of the 2021/22 crop by 10 August. The harvesting pace is slightly slower than the five-year average of 90% for this time of the year. Consultancy Safras & Mercado projects a crop of 56.5 million 60-kg bags for this year. Based on this forecast, 50.45 million bags from the new crop have been collected so far.

Demand

Traders believe while global consumers will soon have to pay more to purchase coffee from supermarkets, the cost of a latte or Americano at high street coffee chains may not follow suit in the short term. Data issued by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics show average ground coffee prices rose to a peak of $4.75 per lb in April, up 8.1% from a year earlier and the highest level since July 2015, as drought took an initial toll on Brazil’s crops. Domestically in Brazil, a sharp 40% rise in coffee consumer prices is expected in supermarkets by the end of September; the largest recorded increase for at least 25 years.

Trade

Vietnamese coffee exports in July 2021 amounted to 122,293 tonnes (around 2.038 million 60-kg bags), down 4.5% from the prior month but up from 110,028 tonnes (1.834 million bags). This brought total exports in the first 10 months of 2020/21 to around 1.280 million tonnes (21.329 million bags), down from 1.412 million tonnes (23.527 million) in the same period a year ago.

The ICO exported 11.200 million 60-kg bags of coffee in June 2021, up 4.1% from 10.765 million in the same month last year. This brought total exports in the first nine months of 2020/21 to 98.545 million bags, up 2.5% y/y.

Price

Arabica coffee futures settled higher for the third straight day by Wednesday (August 11), after reverting an earlier fall, aided by new projections of losses to next season's production in Brazil. The benchmark September arabica contract settled up 1.85 cents at 183.85 cents per pound, in dealings between 179.80 and 185.30 cents.

Aug 13 - Market Briefing: Sugar (IHSmarkit)

Production

Sugar mills in Brazil's Centre/South crushed 46.6 million tonnes of sugarcane in the second half of July, up from 45.6 million in the first half but down 8.2% from 50.8 million in the same period last year, Unica data showed. This brought total cane processing since the start of the season on 1 April to 304 million tonnes, down 7.3% from 327 million by the same time last year. A sample of 68 mills showed that the average cane yield reached just 73.7 tonnes per ha during July, a drop by 17.9% from 89.8 in the same month last year. This means that the yield drop accelerated in the second half of the month as the cane yield drop for the first half of July was previously reported at 14% (to 68.2 tonnes per ha from 79.0), while it was 11% during June.

Demand

The first raw sugar of Australia’s 2021 growing season, produced at Wilmar's Plane Creek and Proserpine mills, has been shipped out of the Port of Mackay on 20 July. The raw sugar was loaded into the MV Mareeba bulk carrier and destined for Sugar Australia’s Yarraville Refinery in Melbourne where it will be processed into a variety of products for CSR Sugar and Australian food and beverage customers.

Trade

India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Limited (NFCSF), has asked its members to focus on the production and export of raw sugar in the upcoming 2021/22 season. The latest discussions with the major export houses confirm that they are going for forward contracts with sugar mills for the export of raw sugar for the deliveries in December and January at a price range of INR32,400-32,800 per tonne on a free-on-board (FOB) basis. The NFCSF believes that if the sugar mills are able to produce raw sugar at the beginning of the crushing season, then the mills can export above their monthly sugar quota for the domestic sale, which would be helpful in improving their cash liquidity.

Price

Brazilian crop worries are keeping futures firm. Raw sugar in New York ended mostly higher by Wednesday (August 11), except for the most-active October contract which ended slightly lower after rising to a four-month high of 19.75 cents in the previous session. The October contract settled down 12 points at 19.47 cents per pound, in dealings between 19.30 and 19.67 cents.

Aug 13 - Market Briefing: Cocoa (IHSmarkit)

Production

Ivory Coast’s cocoa supplies still appear to be abundant, with cumulative arrivals reaching 2.111 million tonnes by August 8, up 4.8% from 2.014 million tonnes over the same period last season, though below last week’s 3.9% y/y rise.

Bahia’s cocoa weekly deliveries in Brazil decreased by 24% w/w and compared to the same week last year, to 52,278 60-kilo bags (3,137 tonnes) in the week ending August 1.

Demand

Ivory Coast cocoa grinders processed 452,000 tonnes of beans by the end of July, down from 469,000 tonnes over the same period last season, data from cocoa exporters’ association GEPEX showed. However, on a month-on-month basis, cocoa grind rose 6.4% to 50,000 tonnes in July compared with the previous month.

Meanwhile, IRI reported that US retail sales of chocolate confections in the 4 weeks through July 11 rose +5.8% y/y.

Trade

Brazil’s cocoa exports fell by 11% y/y in volume and 7% y/y in revenue in July, to 4.506 tonnes and $15.6 million, squeezed by Bahia’s external demand, down 13% y/y and 7% y/y. Bahian exporting figures accounted for 97% of the total volume and 98% of the value. Chocolate shipments tallied 3,180 tonnes and $11 million. Brazil’s imports totaled 2,003 tonnes of cocoa beans in July, 109 tonnes of cocoa butter, and 1,954 tonnes of cocoa solids, a total value of $11 million. Separately, chocolate imports reached 2,019 tonnes and $11 million.

Cameroon's domestic traded cocoa volumes rose 16.4% to 292,471 tonnes in the 2020/2021 season compared with the same period a year ago, data from the National Cocoa and Coffee Board (NCCB) showed. Netherlands was the top destination for beans from Cameroon, followed by Indonesia, Malaysia and China, it said, adding that Mexico and the US were new export destinations.

Price

Signs of strength in chocolate and cocoa demand were pushing cocoa prices higher this week. Futures by Wednesday (August 11) extended Tuesday's rally up to 2½-month highs. September New York cocoa on closed up USD41 to USD2,521, while September London cocoa closed up GBP6 to GBP1,695.

Brazilian domestic prices were stable last week, quoted in the range of BRL185.00–195.00/15-kilo unit on August 2 and ended the week between BRL193.00–204.00 ($2,457–2,598/tonne) last Friday (August 6). The overall picture of larger production and low consumption, has been affecting quotations, further supported by low exports.

Aug 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

While both markets continued their unwavering gains yesterday, they lost significant strength. In London, Dec 21 marked highs of GBP 1784 and is approaching resistance of GBP 1800. However, buying support eased significantly in the evening, with the 2nd month Dec 21 closing unchanged (GBP 1769; -1). The Sep/Dec21 spread again lost GBP 7 (-82) and is marching towards a triple-digit discount four weeks before Sep21 expires. The key questions are, of course, how much further will the specs extend their long position? It seems that a large part of the position has already been rolled, the focus is no longer on the front month. And: how much hedging pressure is there for unfixed contracts?

Aug 12 - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- South Africa’s raisin crop forecast to rise by 19% y/y in 2021-22 season
- 21% increase in Vietnam’s cashew exports
- Turkish sultana prices stabilised since TMO’s purchase this July

Production

- Sudan, Nigeria and Senegal, the largest African peanut growers, are close to finishing their groundnut plantings, having secured water supply to reach high crops.
- Macadamia grower and processor Marquis Group will invest A$35 million ($25.7 million) in Australia and South Africa.
- South Africa’s raisin crop is expected to reach 85,000 tonnes in the 2021-22 season, 19% more y/y, after planted area grew by 3% y/y to 19,900 hectares and newly planted vineyards are coming into production. Most production is concentrated along the Orange River (Northern Cape province), accounting for 90% of the total output.
- Turkey’s 2021-22 sultana crop is expected to reach 250,000 tonnes, 8% less y/y, on 74,000 hectares, after frosts hit vineyards in the region of Manisa (West), between February-March.

Demand

- Turkish sultana consumption is expected to be stagnant y/y at 38,000 in the 2021-22 season, thanks to low prices. South Africa’s raisin consumption may rise by 2% y/y to 18,000 tonnes in the 2021-22 season, thanks to strong demand from bakery and snack industries.
- Robust recovery in Chinese demand for nuts has favoured a sharp rise in Vietnam’s cashew exports in H1 2021.

Trade

- Vietnam’s cashew exports increased by 21.4% y/y to 324,000 tonnes and by 14% in value to $1.97 billion from January-July 2021 according to Vietnamese customs.
- Turkey’s dried fig exports reached 590 tonnes in the week ending on 7 August, three times more y/y, bringing seasonal sales (30 September 2020-7 August 2021) to 64,740 tonnes valued at $233.3 million, 300 tonnes more in volume but 4% more in value.
- Turkey’s 2021-22 sultana exports may fall by 2% y/y to 220,000 tonnes due to lower production. South Africa’s 2021-22 raisin exports may reach 72,000 tonnes (+4% y/y), if the Covid-19 pandemic does not halt shipments as it did in the 2020-21 season.
- Turkey’s dried apricot industry has sold out of the 2020-21 (August-July) production, after exports reached 96,000 tonnes, 11% more y/y.

Price

- Turkish sultana prices have been steady since July after the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) decided to purchase at TRY12.5 per kilo ($1.4/kilo).
- Turkey’s export dried apricot prices averaged $2,792 per tonne in August 2020-July 2021, 40% more y/y.
- Weekly Turkish dried fig fob prices in the week ending on 7 August were:
    Whole dried figs, $3,709/tonne, 13% less m/m.
    Cut dried figs, $2,524/tonne, $30 less.
    Paste, $1,190/tonne, a third less.

Aug 12 - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- 17% increase in India’s coriander crop
- Bangladesh has authorised imports of Indian green chilli due to supply shortage
- Sharp fall in Chinese garlic prices due to oversupply

Production

- Wildfires have burned 1,600 sq-km of forest in Turkey’s Mediterranean (South) and Aegean (East) regions since 28 July, damaging beekeepers who use pine forests to feed their bees. The government reported that around 80% of beekeeping farms have been affected in Mugla (South East), which concentrates half of the total domestic crop.
- Severe drought has hit Bangladesh’s green chilli plantations, halving yield during the summer crop, which accounts for a quarter of the total annual output.
- India’s 2020-21 coriander crop is expected to increase by 17% y/y to 822,210 tonnes on 628,600 hectares, 19% more, according to the Spices Board of India (SBI).
- Cordoba’s (Andalusia, South Spain) garlic growers are set to relocate their plantations in Castile-La Mancha (Central Spain), after water authorities announced the irrigation restrictions in the Guadalquivir basin from 30 October onwards.

Demand

- The recovery in hostelry has favoured a robust sales growth in Symrise’s (flavours and essential oils) flavour and nutrition segment. Its sales rose by 10.1% y/y to EUR1.16 billion in H1 2021 ($1.36 billion).
- India’s demand for spices is gradually recovering after the government eased Covid-19 restrictions, favouring rising coriander prices.

Trade

- Bangladesh’s government has authorised imports of Indian green chilli after a disappointing domestic crop.
- Indian sesame seed exports were 87,570 tonnes, worth $137.5 million, in January-April 2021, 6% more y/y in volume but 8% less in value. The main importers were South Korea, the US, Russia and Taiwan, which took 19%, 10%, 6% and 5%, respectively, of the volume.
- India’s coriander exports rose by 41% y/y in volume to 19,770 tonnes and by 40% more in value to $23.2 million.

Prices

- The Indian coriander spot price was INR7,308 per quintal (USD97.3/quintal) at Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 9 August, 6% more than on 8 July.
- Bangladesh’s green chilli prices reached TKY200/kilo ($1/kilo) in Dhaka, in the week ending on 8 August, five times more w/w due to supply shortage.
- China’s fresh garlic prices fell to $0.7-0.8 per kilo (-40% m/m) after the domestic markets were flooded with fresh products due to farmers’ concerns about work restrictions during the Covid-19 outbreak between July-August.

Aug 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The course of the day was almost identical to the previous day. A short period of weakness after the opening was followed by another steady rally towards the highs of the year at GBP 1822. Speculative buying (what else?) met only isolated resistance from the origin. The Dec 21 traded to 5-month highs at GBP 1773 and ended the day at GBP +18 at GBP 1770. The Sep / Dec 21 spread collapsed to a discount of GBP -74 due to the changes in the tendering procedure after the expiry of the Sep 21 term combined with the lively buying interest in the Dec 21 position. The further structure is flat / inverse and should not slow down the appetite of the longs for the time being. 

Aug 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Almost uninhibited, and with only a slight countering of origin selling, aggressive buying by specs / funds led to a firm daily session. The Dec 21 traded to highs of GBP 1753, ending the day firm at GBP +33 at GBP 1752. These fresh new longs (mind you, buying interest was almost exclusively focused on the second position), triggered various placed buy orders from the corresponding shorts, as well as from the industry. The highs from May (GBP 1756) and March (GBP 1764) should, from a technical point of view, provide resistance and slow down buying interest in new and speculative longs. The Sep / Dec 21 spread was under pressure yesterday, trading at new lows of GBP -63.

Aug 11 - Sugar soars as crops in world's top producer Brazil hit by frosts

Sugar prices hit their highest level in more than four years on Tuesday after a report confirmed damage to sugarcane crops in the world's larger producer Brazil from unusually harsh frosts in June and July. Sugar production in Brazil's centre-south region fell by 11% in the second half of July to 3 million tonnes, industry group Unica said, more than expected. 

Aug 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The reaction to Friday's firm close did not take long to materialise. Immediately after the open, technical buying on the specs brought good support. The Dec 21 traded up to recent highs and closed GBP 12 up at GBP 1719. A renewed speculative short position is looking increasingly unlikely. The structure is under pressure and the origin announced to have completed the pre-sales for the new 2021/22 season. Only the forwards were under pressure and closed in negative territory. Against the generally rather bullish development stands the sizeable crop development. Côte d'Ivoire's arrivals in the current crop are estimated by local exporters at 2,111 million as of 8 August 2021, almost 5% above the previous year. Origin grindings in June are also said to have been 7.3% above the previous year - surprising in light of the summer energy supply problems...

Aug 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With not even 1000 lots traded by midday, 'laborious' would be a clear understatement! It was not until the afternoon that the markets came to life. Dec 21 broke through GBP 1700 resistance and traded up to a high of GBP 1710, this weekly high from Wednesday provided further resistance and sporadic hedge pressure from the origin. Dec 21 ended the day GBP +20 at GBP 1707. Commitment of Traders as of 03.08 show the expected expansion of the net long position from 8,009 lots to now 14,272 lots. Managed money liquidated a combined 11,696 lots in the last reporting period, while the commercial market participants built up approx. 13,000 lots of shorts. So we have come full circle with the reduction of the short position and good sales of the origin.

Aug 06 - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- Brazilian frosts to impact coffee production for two years
- Colombian production reached 1.209 million 60-kg bags in July
- Costa Rican coffee exports in July 2021 reached 124,843 60-kg bags

Production

- The worst frosts since 1994 are set to hit Brazilian coffee production for two years. Minasul coffee cooperative, estimated that between 20% and 30% of the crops were hit by the unusually cold temperatures that reached the region on 20 July.
- Colombian production of washed arabica coffee in July 2021 reached 1.209 million 60-kg bags, the National Coffee Federation said, down 7.7% from 1.310 million one year earlier. This was the first time since April that the federation has published production data.

Demand

- The volume of arabica coffee options traded on ICE in July hit record highs as frosts led to a surge in prices, the exchange said. The monthly total for arabica coffee options totalled a record 664,648 contracts. The daily record for arabica options was broken twice, first on 21 July with 61,922 contracts, only for that total to be exceeded the following day with 84,165. The previous record had been 48,637 lots set on 5 June.

Trade

- Brazilian green coffee exports in July 2021 totalled around 2.382 million 60-kg bags, down from 2.797 million in the same month last year, data from the Trade Ministry show. Shipments were also below 2.904 million bags in June.
- Costa Rican coffee exports in July 2021 reached 124,843 60-kg bags, data from the National Coffee Institute (ICAFE) showed, down 9.8% from 138,386 bags during the same month last year.
- Honduran coffee exports in July 2021 rose to 728,134 60-kg bags from 326,817 in the same month last year, following higher shipping commitments, according to preliminary figures from the Honduran Coffee Institute (IHCAFE).

Price

- Arabica futures settled modestly higher by Thursday (August 5) with the benchmark September arabica contract settled up 1.25 cents at 176.90 cents per pound. The market is currently zooming in on a "new normal" trading range, after recently rallying to 215.20 cents and a subsequent drop to 171.60 cents on profit taking. Rabobank said it expects September futures to trade between $1.52 and $1.88. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) expects arabica prices to remain elevated for at least the next two to three years, with severe frost hitting about a tenth of the area of the premium variety coffee.

Aug 06 - Market Briefing: Sugar (IHSmarkit)

- Brazil’s CS sugar production seen at only 28 million tonnes of sugar in 2021/22
- Japan’s ethanol imports reach all-time high of 166,000 cubic metres in June
- Raw sugar market rallies to 18.62 cents per pound for October benchmark

Production

- Asian commodities trader Wilmar, slashed its estimate for Brazil’s CS production, saying it only expects around 28 million tonnes of sugar in 2021/22 due to extensive damage to cane fields. Widespread frosts will result in lower agricultural yields leading to a cane crush of around 490-500 million tonnes, down from 605 million tonnes last season. Broker StoneX also cut its projection for CS sugar production to 34.6 million tonnes for the current crop, down from a May projection of 35.7 million tonnes, and 10% below last season’s record volume of 38.4 million tonnes.
- France has placed the area sown to sugar beet at 407,812 ha in its August estimate, hardly changed from 407,777 ha in July when it had raised it significantly from 397,465 ha in June.

Demand

- Raw sugar arrivals into Algeria’s port of Bejaia reached 225,300 tonnes in July against 186,000 tonnes in June. All of the July volume came from Brazil. At the same time, 40,000 tonnes of whites were exported during the month, up from 9,600 in June. The line-up for August currently stands at 90,000 tonnes all of which from Brazil. Algeria mostly exports to destinations in the Mediterranean and Black Sea region. In July, one vessel was scheduled for France.

Trade

- Japan’s ethanol imports in June 2021 amounted to 166,000 cubic metres, an all-time high, up from 126,014 in May and 160,497 one year earlier.
- Brazil exported 2,468,753 tonnes of sugar, in July 2021, down from 3,290,486 tonnes in the same month last year, government data show. Shipments were also significantly lower than 2,750,338 tonnes in June, which had been slightly higher than 2,714,111 tonnes in the same month in 2020.

Price

- Raw sugar futures in New York ended sharply higher by Thursday (August 5) as concerns over further cuts to Brazil's 2021/22 sugar production dominated market sentiment. The benchmark contract for October delivery gained 69 points to settle at 18.62 cents per pound, in dealings between 17.83 and 18.69 cents. This means that the contract has come within striking distance of a five-month high of 18.81 cents per pound hit on 29 July. White sugar futures in London also posted sizeable gains with the nearby October contract adding $14.50 to a settlement at $461.80 per tonne, having traded between $446.00 and $462.30 in the course of the session.

Aug 06 - Market Briefing: Cocoa (IHSmarkit)

- Global cocoa market to see surplus of 200,000 tonnes in 2020/21
- World cocoa grindings projected at 4,814,000 tonnes for 2020/21
- Cocoa graded by ICE Futures Europe rose by 14% y/y in June

Production

- The global cocoa market is now expected to see a surplus of 200,000 tonnes in 2020/21, down from 220,000 tonnes estimated a month ago, according to IHS Markit. In addition, for 2021/22, a surplus of 26,000 tonnes is forecast, down from 46,000 projected last month.
- Global cocoa production was left unchanged and set to surpass 5 million tonnes in 2020/21, with 2021/22’s output also still left at 4.9 million tonnes. Production for key producing countries also remain unchanged with Ivory Coast’s volumes seen at 2.2 million tonnes in 2020/21 and 2.16 million projected for the following season. Ghana’s output is also still pegged at 990,000 tonne for this season and seen lower for 2021/22 at 960,000 tonnes.

Demand

- IHS Markit now has world cocoa grindings at 4,814,000 tonnes for 2020/21 from 4,794,000 tonnes a month ago. Figures for 2021/22 were also adjusted to 4,899,000 tonnes, from 4,879,000 last month.

Trade

- Cocoa graded by ICE Futures Europe reached 119,380 tonnes from October 2020–June 2021, up by 14% from 104,270 tonnes of cocoa graded over the same period in the previous season. During the above-mentioned time spans, the volume of Cameroonian cocoa beans at exchange gradings decreased from 54,960 tonnes to 41,160 tonnes. In the US, the ICE Futures graded 91,191 tonnes of cocoa beans from October 2020 – June 2021, up from 16,354 tonnes graded during the same period of the preceding cocoa year. On a year-on-year basis, the volumes of cocoa beans from Ivory Coast and Ecuador, in ICE Futures US gradings, increased from 8,699 tonnes to 49,467 tonnes and from 1,169 tonnes to 15,311 tonnes, respectively.

Price

- Cocoa prices settled sharply higher on Tuesday (August 3), due to dry conditions in West Africa. September New York cocoa closed up USD63 to settle at USD2,426. In the following session, prices initially extended gains up to a two-month high, but a rally in the dollar index prompted long liquidation of cocoa futures.
- The ICCO reported average June cocoa butter prices dropping by 10% y/y to $4,952 per tonne in the US, while in Europe, they weakened to $4,986 per tonne; -8% y/y. In contrast, cocoa powder prices rallied in both markets, up by 50% y/y to $4,327 per tonne in the US and by 26% to $3,574 per tonne in Europe.

Aug 06 - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- Iran’s 2021-22 pistachio production expected to fall by 28% y/y after frosts hit trees in H1 2021
- Argentina’s raisin consumption may reach record level thanks to health trends and a higher crop
- 14% increase in US pecan exports

Production

- Iran’s 2021-22 pistachio crop is expected to reach 150,000 tonnes, 28% less y/y, after frosts hit trees in H1 2021.
- The overall pace of the US peanut crop is holding up well with 88% of peanuts at pegging stage, according to USDA. Alabama’s plantations started to enjoy dry weather after being damaged by heavy rains in the second fortnight of July.
- The harvest of the new Turkish hazelnut crop has started in the seaside regions. The harvest at 250-metre altitude will start on 7 of August. At higher altitudes the harvest will start on 12 August.
- Argentina’s raisin production may reach 44,500 tonnes in the 2021-22 season, 3% higher y/y, after planted area rose by 100 hectares to 7,600 ha, according to USDA.

Demand

- Argentina’s raisin consumption is expected to rise by 28% y/y to 4,500 tonnes thanks to healthy trends and a large crop, according to USDA.
- Demand for Turkish hazelnuts is subdued, importers and processors awaiting TMO’s purchasing prices in the last week of July.

Trade

- Iran’s pistachio exports reached 10,400 tonnes this July, a quarter less y/y, bringing seasonal shipments (October 2020-July 2021) to 184,760 tonnes, 50% more y/y. Open mouth in-shells accounted for 78% of the total volume.
- Sri Lanka’s desiccated coconut exports rose by 10% y/y to 14,650 tonnes and value rose by 49% to LKR8.9 billion ($44.4 million) in H1 2021.
- Global sales of US pecans were 9.0 million in-shell basis pounds this June, 4% less y/y, bringing seasonal (September-June) exports to 104.0 mln lbs, 14% more y/y. China was the only relevant in-shell importer this June. Chinese imports halved y/y to 740,240 lbs in June 2021.

Price

- Iran’s pistachio prices fell slightly from record-highs in the week ending on 2 August. Jumbo Kale Guchi was listed at EUR8,000 per tonne ($9,500/tonne/tonne) fob for size 20-22 NO and at EUR7,800/tonne for size 22-24 NO.
- Wholesale desiccated coconut prices ranged from LKR520-530/kg ($2.58-2.63/kg) for fine product on 26 July, unchanged from June, and from LKR540-550/kg, LKR10 more m/m, for medium.

Aug 06 - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- 6% fall in Indian cumin seed crop
- Covid-19 restrictions weakening chilli consumption in Malaysia, China and Bangladesh
- 50% increase in Cambodia’s chilli exports from January-July

Production

- India’s 2020-21 cumin crop is expected to reach 856,500 tonnes, 6% less y/y, on 1.24 million hectares, 30,000 less y/y.
- Para’s (Brazil) pepper harvest will start in September. Its crop may range between 35,000-37,000 tonnes. Chinese and Indonesian white pepper crops have been downgraded due to unfavourable weather just before their harvests.
- US honeybee colonies for operations with five or more colonies closed at 2.92 million on 1 January 2020, 2% higher y/y, according to USDA data. Colonies lost for operations were 255,860, 9% of the total in Q2 2021. Colonies added for operations were 677,290. Renovated colonies reached 480,380 units in Q2 2021.
- The US flavour company Kalamazoo Spice Extraction (Kalsec) has invested $10 million to open a 6,500 square-foot facility in Michigan to develop new herb and spice extracts to colour and flavour beverages and food and preserve meat.

Demand

- Weak domestic demand for India’s cumin seeds is offsetting robust exports, stabilising prices.
- Gradual recovery in essential oil consumption after the vaccination process was in full swing in the US and Europe in Q2 2021, as the Swiss company Givaudan’s results reveal.
- Weak chilli consumption in Asian countries such as Malaysia, China and Bangladesh, due to Covid-19 restrictions. This means India’s chilli stocks have peaked at 800,000 tonnes, according to trading sources.

Trade

- India’s cumin seed exports doubled y/y to 100,000 tonnes, worth $196 million, two thirds more in value, from January-April 2021, according to customs data. China was the main importer, taking 35% of the total exported volume.
- Cambodia’s chili international sales rose by 50% y/y to 67,540 tonnes from January-July 2021, Thailand taking 97% of the total. Thai importers are keeping an eye on Cambodia’s spices as farmers are not using pesticides, fulfilling Thailand’s MRL.

Prices - Trading sources quoted the following cassia prices in July:

    Indonesia’s KA 2-2.5%: $5,483 per tonne fob
    Indonesia’s KB 1.5-2%: $4,960/tonne
    Vietnam’s Saigon 3.0%: $2,780/tonne
    Vietnam’s Saigon 3.5%: $2,873/tonne
    Vietnam’s Saigon 5.0%: $4,113/tonne

Indonesian and Chinese white pepper prices grow by 7.8% m/m in July due to downgraded crop estimates. Indonesia’s Muntok FAQ was quoted at $7,130/tonne fob. China’s FAQ was listed at $6,775/tonne fob.

Aug 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After a few days of volatility, a range between GBP 1660 / 1710 and good volume, the market did everything to keep our eyes open yesterday. Dec 21 traded in a range of GBP 13, briefly tested GBP 1700 (high GBP 1698), almost completely ignored a firm British pound and ended the day GBP -2 at GBP 1687 / Dec 21. Volume was more than thin and nobody, neither industry nor origin, wanted to make another move yesterday. Closing price of 06.08.20 (second month) was GBP 1685 by the way, so almost identical to yesterday. So what has the last year brought us? To be precise, highs around GBP 1900 and lows of GBP 1570...So something for everyone.

Aug 05 - Increase in Chinese and Indonesian white pepper prices due to downgraded crop estimates (IHSmarkit)

- 6.8-7.8% price increase in Indonesian and Chinese white pepper
- Brazil’s harvest to start in September

Low pepper estimates in China and Indonesia are lifting white pepper prices just when harvests are starting in both origins, according to Dutch trader Nedspice in its latest market update.

Vietnam’s government has imposed work restrictions due to a Covid-19 outbreak, slowing shipments. This means that black pepper stocks will be low until Para’s (Brazil) harvest starts in September. Para’s crop may range between 35,000-37,000 tonnes.

Vietnam’s prices are steady although most players expect a sharp rise when European demand recovers from September onwards.

Nedspice quoted the following fob prices in July:
    Black Pepper, Vietnam ASTA: $3,869/tonne, unchanged from June
    Black Pepper, Brazil ASTA: $3,990/tonne, 6.8% less m/m
    White pepper, Indonesia Muntok FAQ: $7,130/tonne, 7.8% more
    White pepper, China FAQ: $6,775/tonne, 7.8% more

Aug 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

At first it looked yesterday as if the bulls could gain ground and overcome the highs of the past week. Due to the further growing open interest in the front positions, this support can be largely attributed to new longs of the managed money friends. The second month thus tested GBP 1710, but ran into resistance due to technical selling and price hedging against origin cover and subsequently lost a good 20 points. Close Dec21 at GBP 1689 (-7). The instability of the past few days is certainly testing the nerve of the new longs. If they pull the plug, the market would come under pressure again. This is likely to make the origin, which suddenly has to sell after all, nervous.

Aug 04 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

London continued its rally, which was interrupted earlier in the week, significantly firmer right after the opening. Dec 21 set course for psychological resistance at GBP 1700 and closed GBP 25 up at GBP 1696 near the day's highs. The bulk of activity yesterday was again on the front spreads, which converged somewhat: Sep/Dec 21 lost GBP 11 in the meantime to close at GBP-48. Dec/Mar21 again ventured into positive territory, where this time it also remained until the close of trading (GBP+2). Much of the activity may well be attributed to speculative covering against the recently built short position, which we should see in the Committment of Traders figures over the weekend.

Aug 04 - Sugar buyers retreat amid high freight prices, drive down diffs - BP Bunge 

High transoceanic freight prices caused sugar consumers around the world to pause their buying and use stocks, leading to a temporary glut of the sweetener in the main export port of Santos, Brazil, that drove down price differentials. According to BP Bunge Bioenergia, the sugar and ethanol venture owned by BP Plc and Bunge Ltd, Brazilian sugar was sold at times at a discount to New York raw sugar futures in July, instead of the conventional premium over futures, as many sugar importers left the market.

Aug 04 - Unusual frosts in Brazil seen knocking out sugar output

Sugar output in Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter, is set to slump - and could suffer next year as well - after three frost events hit crops in the country's center-south region in June and July, market analysts said on Tuesday. Brazil has been hit with an unusually harsh winter this year with temperatures dropping to freezing levels for several days, hurting crops from corn to coffee and sugar cane. 

Aug 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After Friday's downward movement, built-up hedging pressure from the origin caused an initially weak course of the day. After the official opening in New York, there was also a little pressure on the market at times, here a good part of the approx. 6000 lots of fresh longs from the last Commitments of Traders Report were certainly liquidated again. The Dec 21 LDN tested its 10-day average (GBP 1661) with a low of GBP 1658, but ended the day almost unchanged at GBP -4 at GBP 1671. The Dec 21 / Mar 22 widened a little after a trip into positive territory and traded at GBP -7 / close GBP -4. Arrivals in the Ivory Coast as of 02.08 are at 2.109 vs. 2.030 mt from 19/20 (+3.39%).

Aug 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Technically, the correction seen on Friday was long overdue. The Dec 21 lost GBP 28 at the peak, traded to a low of GBP 1670 and ended the day GBP -23 at GBP 1675. The origin was much more active compared to the last few days, towards GBP 1700, in the market and in the absence of the industry there was little significant resistance. Commitment of Traders as of 27.07 show a reduction of the net short position by 5,370 lots to 6,263 lots net short. Managed money was surprisingly "inactive, the change in the reporting period was just under GBP +80 / $ 135. Only in New York did the short position decrease by 1,389 lots, London added 1,194 lots of fresh shorts.

Aug 02 - Frosts stain Brazil coffee belt, growers see nearly a third of fields hit

Brownish spots have stained large areas of coffee fields in the south of Brazil's top producer Minas Gerais, a sign that the worst cold snap in nearly 30 years will hurt production for at least the next two crops, according to an agronomist. Adriano de Rezende, technical coordinator at the Minasul coffee cooperative, estimated that between 20% and 30% of the crops were hit by the unusually cold temperatures that reached the region on July 20, spurring the worst frost since 1994, according to farmers and analysts.     

Jul 30 - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- India's coffee output is estimated to rise to an all-time high of 369,000 tonnes
- Vietnamese coffee exports in June reached 128,036 tonnes
- US green coffee stocks in June dropped by 35,678 60-kg bags

Production

- India's coffee output is estimated to rise to an all-time high of 369,000 tonnes (6.15 million 60-kg bags) in 2021/22, up 10.5% from a downwardly revised 334,000 tonnes (5.567 million bags) in 2020/21. Arabica production is projected to rise to 108,300 tonnes (1.805 million bags) from 99,000 tonnes (1.650 million bags), while robusta output is seen increasing to 260,700 tonnes (4.345 million bags) from 235,000 tonnes (3.917 million bags).
- Brazil’s 2021/22 robusta harvest has virtually been concluded in Rondônia, while progress in Espírito Santo stood at 70-80%. Progress was slowed by a high share of green beans and a lack of work force. Harvest progress with arabica stood at 50-60% in Zona da Mata, 40-50% in Garça and in Cerrado Mineiro and 30-40% in northwest Parana.

Demand

- US green coffee stocks in port warehouses dropped by 35,678 60-kg bags during June 2021 to reach 5,779,461 bags at the end of the month. Stocks were down 18.2% from the year-ago level of 7,061,198 bags. Stocks had increased for two consecutive months since hitting a six-year low of 5.679 million bags late in March but are now headed back to multi-year lows. Stocks remain well above 2011’s historical low of around 4 million bags.
- Japanese green coffee stocks held in ports amounted to 2.863 million 60-kg bags at the end of May 2021, up from 2.808 million at the end of the previous month but 38,967 bags below the count at the same time last year.
Trade.
- Vietnamese coffee exports in June amounted to 128,036 tonnes compared with 130,285 tonnes in May and 127,700 in June 2020. This brought total exports to around 1.157 million tonnes down from 1.302 million tonnes in the same period a year ago.
- Ugandan coffee exports totaled 618,388 60-kg bags in June, up from 420,563 bags one year earlier and the highest ever in a single month since 1991. This brought total coffee exports to 4,509,437 bags, up from 3,791,089 a year ago.
- Brazilian green coffee exports in June rose 0.3% over the same month a year ago to around 2.730 million 60 kg bags, with limited shipping capacity still a problem. So far in the current cycle, a total of 8.933 million bags was exported, up 5.2% on 2019/20.
- Members of the ICO exported 9.786 million 60-kg bags of coffee in May 2021, down 10.1% from 10.901 million in the same month last year.

Price

Arabica coffee futures rose sharply to their highest level in more than 6½-years this week on ongoing support from concern that strong frosts in Brazil last week may have done extensive damage to trees in the main coffee belt. The benchmark September contract settled up 18.80 cents at 207.80 cents per pound (July 26), after peaking at 215.20 cents, the highest since October 2014. The session low was 199.00 cents. Equally, coffee prices in Brazil have risen from BRL400 ($77.30) per 60-kg bag in December to around BRL800 this month, but there are estimates for further increases ahead to around BRL1,000. A new polar air mass is forecast to move over the same areas later this week, which will be the third strong cold front to hit crops this year.

Jul 30 - Market Briefing: Cocoa (IHSmarkit)

- European grinding at 10-year high, +13.6% y/y in Q2
- Brazilian cocoa exports down 3% y/y to 4,775 tonnes in June
- New York cocoa hits eight-month low

Production

- Colombia’s cocoa output in Q1 (January-March) totaled 20,836 tonnes, a 47% y/y increase and the highest figure in the history of the country’s production. This was not only above last year’s volumes, which had only reached 14,174 tonnes by Q1, but is also higher than the estimated 14,550 tonnes.
- Brazil’s total cocoa arrivals decreased in the week ending July 18, to 105,635 60-kilo bags (6,338 tonnes), -10% w/w. This was owed to Bahian volumes dipping to 63,883 60-kilo bags (3,833 tonnes), a weekly drop of 22%, and -4% y/y.

Demand

- European cocoa processing for Q2 2021 rose to their highest level in at least 10-years and could potentially be its all-time peak for the quarter. Grindings increased by 13.6 % y/y to 356,854 tonnes.
- North American cocoa grindings saw an 11.68% y/y rise in Q2 2021, to 123,719 tonnes. Volumes were also higher quarter-on-quarter (Q1 117,956 tonnes) and the highest quarterly volumes since Q3 2019 (123,208 tonnes).
- Asian Q2 cocoa processing hit over a 10-year high, increasing by 9% y/y, reaching 220,865 tonnes. Quarter-on-quarter, grindings also increased by 3.2%, as well as being above expectations of +4%.
- Swiss chocolatier, Barry Callebaut, saw its nine-month fiscal year sales volumes accelerate (+3.4%) with chocolate (+21.2%) in particular reporting a strong performance. US confectionery giant Hershey, saw another quarterly sales increase (Q2, 16.5%+) and boosted its 2021 earnings outlook further (+6-8%), on robust recovery in away-from-home consumption and international markets, as well as sustained elevated at-home consumption. Mondelez also raised its sales forecast (+4%) on a boost in emerging markets. Lindt reported double-digit sales growth (+17.4% y/y) on a recovery in the chocolate market.

Trade

- Brazil’s total cocoa exports were down 3% y/y to 4,775 tonnes in June, but up 9% y/y in value at USD16 million, due to Bahian exports rising in both volume and revenue. The state of Bahia’s exports were 3% higher y/y in volume and saw a 15% y/y hike in value, to 4,751 tonnes and USD16 million, respectively. From February to June, Brazilian exports tallied 49,229 tonnes according to data from Ilhéus port, but it was lower at 38,005 tonnes. Brazilian industries have already reported that 43,212 tonnes will be released in the next weeks.
- Ghana shipped 465,136 tonnes of cocoa beans globally in 2020, with over half, 255,778 tonnes, heading to the EU (minus the UK). Total exports of cocoa bean and cocoa preparations, from Ghana to the EU, reached 341,516 tonnes.

Price

- Cocoa prices are still being weighed by abundant supplies and beneficial crop weather with the New York futures contract hitting several eight-month lows during the month. September New York cocoa first slipped to USD2,288/tonne on July 6, then hit USD2,296 in the following session and USD2,296 the day after that, extending the sell-off that began in mid-May.
- Meanwhile, cocoa butter prices in July fell moderately by 2.2 cents to 261 cents per pound from last month’s average of 263 cents per pound. Powder prices remained stable at 95 cents per pound and the combined cocoa powder and butter ratio rose by 0.07 to 3.37 in July, up slightly from 3.29 last month. The grind margin declined marginally to 29.8.

Jul 30 - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- Decline in Ethiopian sesame seed production
- Vanilla demand is recovering
- Mexico boosts honey exports

Production

- Papua New Guinea’s vanilla bean crop might exceed 300 tonnes in 2021.
- Uganda’s vanilla bean output is expected to exceed 100 tonnes in 2021 thanks to government support after suffering several years with record-low prices. Comoros’ production is expected to range from 35-50 tonnes.
- The 2020-21 (October-September) Ethiopian sesame seed crop is expected to fall by 9% year-on-year to 255,000 tonnes due to a cut in acreage, according to the USDA, as many farmers are switching to other products such as sorghum due to rising demand in food crops after the Covid-19 pandemic restrictions hit grocery supply chains.
- The 2021 Mexican honey crop might rise by 22.4% year-on-year to 66,270 tonnes, according to the Mexican ministry of agriculture.

Demand

- Demand for industrial-grade vanilla is recovering after Covid-19 starts to be controlled, cutting carry-over stocks.
- The demand for Papua New Guinea’s black and gourmet vanilla is growing strongly.
- The Guatemalan cardamom industry has been focused on covering the demand for the Ramadan festival (12 April-12 May). Overall demand was strong in the first five months of this year, as demonstrated by the export figures (see Trade below).
- Mexico’s honey industry is ready to meet high global demand for honey, triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Trade

- Guatemala’s cardamom exports from January-May 2021 reached 21,910 tonnes, worth USD451.8 million, 45.7% more year-on-year in volume and 15% more in value.
- The Middle East markets were the main importers. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt co-led purchases, accounting for 26%, 21% and 9%, respectively of the total volume.
- Exports started 2021 with record sales of 9,000 tonnes. Exporters sold out the previous crop after closing 2020 with another record: 65,110 tonnes valued at USD1.13 billion, 78% more in volume and 75% more in value.
- Papua New Guinea is facing logistical challenges due to scarcity of sea and air freight services, favouring smuggling of its vanilla beans across the border shared with Indonesia.
- Vietnam’s pepper exports were 154,000 tonnes, worth USD496.8 million, in H1 2021, 7.5% less year-on-year in volume and 40% more in value, thanks to gradual growth in prices since January
- Indian turmeric sales between January-April 2021 reached 50,430 tonnes, worth USD66.5 million, 22% more year-on-year in volume and 16.0 % more in value. The main importers were Bangladesh and the UAE, taking 21% and 11% of the total volume.
- Ethiopian sesame seed exports reached 87,440 tonnes, worth USD131.2 million, 36% less year-on-year in volume and 57% less in value, from January-May 2021 with fob prices stabilising between USD1,490-1,550/tonne despite consumption recovery. The main importers of Ethiopian sesame were the UAE, Israel and Vietnam, accounting for 30%, 25% and 12%, respectively, of the total volume. China, a traditional key purchaser, accounted only for 3%.
- Mexico’s honey exports closed Q1 2020 with 3,330 tonnes, worth USD10.1 million, 28.6% more year-on-year in volume and 63.8% more in value.

Price

- Guatemalan cardamom prices have stabilised at USD16,000 per tonne cif for mixed yellow quality 360 g/l between May-June, after a slight rise between February-April after the Suez canal bottleneck and India’s industry starting to ship its crop.
- Madagascar’s vanilla prices have fallen to USD150 per kilo despite the minimum price of USD250/kg set by government.
- Vietnam’s pepper prices started at USD3,900/tonne cif nw Europe in the first week of July, USD100 more than in June, according to IHS Markit.
- The Indian spot fob turmeric price reached INR7,331 per quintal (USD98.5/quintal) at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, south central) on 28 July, unchanged from 30 June.

Jul 30 - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- Californian almond crop downgraded due to severe drought
- Vietnam closed H1 with a sharp rise in cashew exports
- Gradual rise in Chilean walnut prices

Production

- Supply of coconut in the Philippines is tight, so any further interruptions from Covid and typhoons will only hurt production volumes. The country is increasing Covid curfews and was recently hit by monsoon flooding with one of the first typhoons of the season Typhoon In-fa
- Australia’s macadamia 2021 output estimate has been downgraded by 4.5% to 48,500 (in-shell) tonnes at 3.5% moisture (52,000 tonnes at 10% moisture), after heavy rains hit plantations in New South Wales (NSW) between March-April, according to the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS).

The new forecast represents a 3.5% increase on last year’s crop.

- California’s 2021 almond crop is estimated to reach 2.8 billion meat pounds, 10% below last year’s record of 3.1 bln lbs due to severe drought, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
- Spain’s walnut production is expected to reach 33,500 tonnes in 2021, 30% more year-on-year, thanks to favourable weather and a 5% growth in planted area, according to the walnut and pecan unit from the Spanish association of fruit and walnut growers (Fepex).
- Rain hampered peanut crop progress in southern Alabama in the week to July 25. Farmers in southern Alabama needed to apply fungicide to peanut crops but are unable due to consistently wet conditions. Overall, drier conditions are still needed for the peanuts crop to progress. However, the overall pace of the crop is holding up well though with 81% of peanuts at the pegging stage, 65% of crop rated in good condition and 10% of the crop viewed as in excellent shape.
- Chile’s 2021-22 raisin crop is expected to reach 59,000 tonnes (dried basis), 1% less year-on-year after the table grape planted area fell by 489 hectares to 45,000 ha, according to the USDA.

Demand

- Desiccated coconut and other coconut products continue to generate keen buying, adding to already intense pressure on supply.
- Vietnamese cashew kernels are also a popular purchase as shown by H1 and June 2021 export data (see Trade below).
- Chile’s 2021-22 raisin consumption may rise by 1.5% to 3,600 tonnes, accounting for 5% of the total crop.

Trade


- Vietnam’s cashew kernel exports surged 23% in the first half of 2021 to 268,084 tonnes. June 2021 exports were 47.4% ahead of those in the same month a year ago to 62,515 tonnes.
- Turkey’s processors are close to clearing out the 2020-21 dried apricot production after exporting 84,320 tonnes, 9% less year-on-year, and selling 8,000-9,000 tonnes in the domestic market from August-June.
- US seasonal (September-June) pistachio exports rose by 21% y-o-y to 184,710 short tons. Germany and China were the main seasonal importers. China imported 63,270 tons, 17% more y-o-y. Germany reached 30,700 tons, 21% more.
- Chilean walnut exports reached 27,690 in-shell equivalent tonnes in June 2021, 45% more year-on-year, according to the Chilean Walnut Association (Chilenut). Seasonal (21 March-30 June) shipments totalled 62,690 tonnes, 37% more.

Price

- Prices for coconut continue to rise, being above the December 2017 highs, as demand continues to be strong even during the usually quieter European summer months, and production is still behind.
- Shipping prices from the Far East remain at record highs with no sign they will get better this year.
- Trading sources listed the following prices for Chilean walnuts in July:
    In-shells: USD3.25-3.35 per kilo fob for 30-34 mm, 8% more month-on-month; USD3.85-3.95/kg for 34-36 mm, 4% more: and USD4.10-4.20/kg for 36 mm+, 2% more.
    Kernels: USD9.00-9.20/kg for LHP80, 5% more; USD7.90-8.0/kg for LHP40, 7% more; USD6.9-7.0/kg for large pieces, 13% more.

Forward view

- Rainfall average between August-September will condition US almond, walnut, pistachio, raisin and prune crops. In addition, water restrictions may lift production costs, pushing up prices.
- Official purchasing prices set by the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) for hazelnuts from September onwards.
- New Covid-19 waves have occurred in Asia, especially in Philippines and Thailand. New lockdowns and restrictions may hit desiccated coconut and dried tropical supply.
- Sea container availability will lead cashew and tropical dried fruit prices between August-November, when traders launch offers to cover the Christmas campaign in the EU and the US.

Jul 30 - Market Briefing: Sugar (IHSmarkit)

- Brazil's CS crushed 45.6 million tonnes of sugar cane in the first half of July
- China’s sugar imports in June 2021 reached 420,000 tonnes
- India exported 4.7 million tonnes of sugar so far in the 2020/21 season

Production

Sugar mills in Brazil's Centre/South crushed 45.6 million tonnes of sugarcane in the first half of July, down 2.4% from 46.7 million in the same period last year, Unica data showed. This brought total cane processing since the start of the season on 1 April to 256.7 million tonnes, down 7.4% from 277.1 million by the same time last year. There was also a 14% drop of the cane yield to 68.2 tonnes per ha in the first half of July from 79.0 in the same period last year. The cane yield drop during early July was therefore stronger than the 11% previously reported for June and can be attributed to a frost during the night 30 June/1 July which led to the advancement of the harvest of frost-impacted cane fields. Cane that has been hit by frost needs to be processed as soon as possible, implying the harvest of cane that has not yet reached optimum maturity. There was a second frost in Brazilian growing areas on 20 July and Unica pointed out that the effect of this frost event will become visible in the harvest data for the second half of July and during August.

Demand

China's (official) sugar imports in June 2021 reached 420,000 tonnes, up from 180,000 in the previous month but hardly changed from 410,000 tonnes in the same month last year, customs data show. This brought total sugar imports in the first nine months of 2020/21 (October/September) to 4.53 million tonnes, up sharply from 2.23 million imported in the same period last year and the highest total ever imported during the first nine months of the season.

Trade

India exported 4.7 million tonnes of sugar so far in the 2020/21 marketing year. Of the total exports undertaken so far, 1.58 million tonnes went to Indonesia, followed by Afghanistan at 582,776, the UAE at 447,097 and Sri Lanka at 363,972. Its food ministry has also suggested providing a subsidy of INR3,500 per tonne for the season starting October. For the current 2020/21 season, the central government initially announced a subsidy of INR6,000 per tonne for 6 million tonnes, which it reduced to INR4,000 per tonne in May due to firm global prices. The food ministry has suggested a lower subsidy for next season as global raw sugar prices have risen nearly 47% over the past year. Exports during the current season ending 30 September are seen at 7 million tonnes, higher than the subsidized quantity of 6 million.

Price

Sugar futures prices have hit several five-month highs over July, on continuing Brazilian frost. By June 29, Raw sugar futures in New York hit a fresh low of 18.81 cents per pound, but then entered into reverse gear as investors believe that the new frosts which are set to hit sugarcane areas on June 30 and August 1 would likely be less severe than last week's and will bring only little additional damage to the crop that is already stressed from previous dry weather and two frosts in July. The October/October white sugar premium continued to decrease as it reached $47.95 per tonne by June 29, down further from $48.22 in the previous session. The white sugar premium is currently at its lowest level since November 2019.

Jul 30 - Coffee, cane and orange crops at risk as temperatures plunge in Brazil 

Temperatures fell in swathes of Brazil on Thursday - with rare snowfall overnight in some places - as a polar air mass advanced toward the center-south of the global agricultural powerhouse, threatening coffee, sugarcane and orange crops with frosts. Unusually cold weather in Brazil has already sent international prices for coffee and sugar higher and Friday was forecast to be the coldest day of the year, according to Marco Antonio dos Santos, a partner at weather consultancy firm Rural Clima.

Jul 29 - Orange production to rise 5% in 2020/21, according to USDA

- Brazil and Mexico to drive global production
- Decreases expected in the US, Egypt and Turkey
- South Africa and China to see major gains in export volumes
Global orange production in the current season is to rise by an extra 2.5 million tonnes thanks to a favourable crop expected in Brazil and Mexico, leaving the market with more processing material.

- According to the USDA’a latest Citrus report, global orange production is to rise 5.4% to 48.6 million tonnes, driven by a 7% rise in Brazilian and a 60% surge in Mexican production of oranges. Most of the increase is projected to go into fruit for processing, while exports and consumption will remain flat.

- Brazil’s production is forecast to reach 15.9 mln tonnes. Even though orange trees in the country this year are in the on-year of the biennial production cycle, adverse weather affected the production potential for the next season. Consumption has been lowered slightly, while oranges destined for processing are up 13 mln tonnes to 11.2 mln.

- Mexico’s production is expected to rebound to 4 mln tonnes as the country comes back to normal after last year’s drought. Consumption and fruit processing are expected to rise accordingly.

- The second-largest orange producer, China, expects production to be up slightly to 7.5 mln tonnes, with exports to more than double on improved logistics and recovery in demand in key markets such as Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

- Production volumes in the EU are to rise 5% to 6.5 mln tonnes thanks to favourable weather and an increase in planted area. South African production is expected to increase 2% to 1.7 mln tonnes due to weather conditions, improved water management, a rise in area harvested, and new plantings of high yielding and late maturing varieties. The country’s exports are estimated at a record 1.3 mln tonnes, with the EU projected to remain the top market (accounting for around 45% of shipments).

- On the other hand, production decreases are expected in some of the other main origins, like the US, Egypt, and Turkey.

Production volumes in the US are estimated to dip 12% to 4.2 mln tonnes, as the crop continues being affected by citrus greening, as well as a planted area that is down 40%. Consequently, consumption, exports and fruit for processing will fall as well.

Egyptian volumes are projected to fall 6% to 3.4 mln tonnes as strong winds and high temperatures affected flowering and fruit set. While exports are likely to mirror lower supplies, Egypt is still expected to account for one-third of global orange trade.

Turkey is to see a 24% lower orange production, at 1.3 mln tonnes on hot May weather which affected the bloom.

Jul 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

One day's break seems to be enough for the cocoa market at the moment. The Dec 21 broke through GBP 1700 resistance, traded to a high for the day of GBP 1713 and ended the day reasonably firm at GBP +16 at GBP 1702. With the sixth firm close in a row and a rise of over GBP 100, one would suspect that the managed money shorts have begun to shed a good portion of their position after all. The origin was sporadic in the market yesterday and held off a further rise for the time being. The differentials in Côte d'Ivoire are currently said to have strengthened again. We recommend continuing to take a look at the structure. Excluding the Sep / Dec 21 spread, this is more than flat for next year.

Jul 28 - Cold wave in São Paulo could trigger losses in oranges and lime crops (IHSmarkit)

- Frost might cut volumes this year, possible knock-on effect next season
- Tangerine crop in São Paulo in the clear

A cold wave that enveloped the state of São Paulo last week negatively affected orange groves in Brazil’s citrus belt, with reports of frost in some areas. This new scenario increased concerns about lower production volumes in the current season as well as a delayed effect on plant vigor for the following crop. Namely, productive orange trees are close to the period when new flowers are induced, but plants are already stressed from the drought they experienced over the last two years, according to market research organisation Cepea.

Cepea analysts expect the quality of the remaining orange fruit this season will decrease, as some of the fruit that was affected by earlier frosts in late June and early July has already dried and even crystallised.

In terms of a possible delayed effect, analysts expect that the youngest trees that are in the budding phase will be most affected in the 2022/23 season.

- As for ponca tangerines, the cold spell is not expected to impact volumes in São Paulo state, since the harvest is practically finished. Meanwhile, in Minas Gerais, where there are still larger volumes to be harvested, fruit quality might be affected.

- Tahiti lime production is likely to be more imperiled than tangerines, as lime is more sensitive to weather oscillations. Moreover, there are areas of Tahiti lime in different stages of development, including orchards that were in full blossom. Local reports indicate the intense cold already caused a drop of small lime fruits, sprouts and flowers.

Jul 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the sharp rise of almost GBP 70 / Dec 21 within 3 days, the market allowed itself a short rest yesterday. With a high of GBP 1691, Dec 21 ventured a brief look towards GBP 1700 resistance. Closing Dec GBP +8 at GBP 1686, the structure continued to run together. The Dec 21/ Mar 22 spread traded to a premium of GBP +5. Just a little less than a week ago it seemed to have settled at GBP -22. With most shorts "underwater", managed money and its direction will determine the next move. Current surplus expectations are hovering around +250,000mt, with a marginal deficit of -15,000mt estimated for next season.

Jul 27 - Covid-19 continues to limit coconut supply

- The end of Covid restrictions is a long way off in the Philippines
- Desiccated coconut prices remain high
- Lofty shipping rates look set to stay well into 2022

Supply of coconut in the Philippines is tight, so any further interruptions from Covid and typhoons will only hurt production volumes.

UK trader TM Duche, which represents Philippine desiccated coconut producer Primex, noted that as the UK ends its first week of the end of lockdown measures against Covid-19, other parts of the world, including the Philippines, are increasing curfews.

The Guardian in the UK reported on Friday that Filipino children are to be banned from going out, it observed.

Just 5.5 million Filipinos have now been fully vaccinated, which is just 5% of a population of 109,035,343, so the end of Covid related lockdowns is a long way off for the Philippines.

There has also been monsoon flooding with one of the first typhoons of the season Typhoon In-fa, with thousands of people fleeing from their homes and put up in Covid safe refuges.

Prices for coconut continue to rise, being above the December 2017 highs, as demand continues to be strong even during the usually quieter European summer months, and production is still behind. “There is no opportunity to catch up and rebuild depleted stock levels in EU warehouses,” TM Duche remarked.

Ports worldwide are getting regular outbreaks of Covid-19, adding to delays – although the peak delays of the first half of 2021 appear to be improving slightly.

Shipping prices from the Far East remain at record highs with no sign they will get better this year. In addition, there is limited to zero availability for some routes into the US.

Forecasts are difficult to make and unpredictability is the keyword.
“We believe that prices will peak in Q4, and shipping costs will probably stay at the same rates well into 2022,” TM Duche concluded.

Jul 27 - Coffee prices surge as unusual cold threatens Brazilian production 

Arabica coffee prices rose 10% more on Monday, after jumping nearly 20% last week, to their highest in nearly seven years as unusual cold weather threatens coffee crops in the world's largest producer Brazil. Severe frosts last week damaged a large part of fields in the main Brazilian coffee belt and a new polar air mass is forecast to move over the same areas later this week, which will be the third strong cold front to hit crops this year.

Jul 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Friday's buying interest accelerated at the start of the week yesterday. Certainly also favoured by the Commitments of Traders figures from the weekend and despite a firm British pound, good support was found shortly after the start. The Dec 21 contract traded up to GBP 45 firmer than Friday and already left the technical resistance of the previous days around GBP 1645 behind in the late morning. Closing price in the evening GBP 1678 Dec 21 (GBP +38). Range was GBP 52 with a respectable volume of almost 40k lots. Overall, the spreads in the front months in particular narrowed considerably, which put pressure on the structure - Dec/Mar 22 closed at GBP -5.

Jul 26 - Brazil sees frosts hitting up to 11% of arabica coffee area 

Unusually strong frosts reported over Brazil's agricultural regions last week hit up to 200,000 hectares (495,000 acres) of arabica coffee farms, or 11% of the total arabica coffee area in the world's largest coffee producer. According to preliminary estimates from the government's food supply agency Conab released over the weekend, an area of 150,000 to 200,000 hectares would see damage to trees, ranging from light to severe.

Jul 26 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With a closing price of GBP +9 at GBP 1640 / Dec 21, the market ended its one-week "excursion" towards GBP 1600 on Friday. The closing price on the previous Friday was almost identical at GBP 1642. In light of the new Commitments of Traders figures and anticipation of a significantly expanded speculative short position, Dec 21 only rallied strongly in the late afternoon to trade at a high of GBP 1652. Commitments of Traders as of 20.07 show a reduction in the combined position from 17,971 lots to now 11,633 lots net short. Managed Money continued to be active on the short side, adding over 18k lots of fresh shorts. These now hold a speculative short position of 54,005 lots!

Jul 23 - Market Briefing: Cocoa (IHSmarkit)

- Ivorian cocoa arrivals reached 2.087 million tonnes by July 18, up 4% y/y
- North American cocoa grindings saw an 11.68% y/y rise in Q2, Asia’s +9% y/y
- New York cocoa futures hit four-month low

Production

- Ivory Coast saw approximately 7,000 tonnes of beans were delivered to Abidjan port and 6,000 tonnes to San Pedro between July 11-18 for a total of 13,000 tonnes, equal to last week’s cocoa arrivals, but down from the 20,000 tonnes during the same week last season. Cumulatively, reached 2.087 million tonnes by July 18, up 4% from 1.993 million tonnes over the same period last season.
- The Ghana Cocoa Board purchased 1,005,070 tonnes of cocoa from farmers in the season of October 1 to July 15, the most in a decade. Ghana still has eight more weeks left of cocoa purchases for the 2020/21 crop year.

Demand

- North American cocoa grindings saw an 11.68% y/y rise in Q2 2021, to 123,719 tonnes. Volumes were also higher quarter-on-quarter (Q1 117,956 tonnes) and the highest quarterly volumes since Q3 2019 (123,208 tonnes).
- Asian Q2 cocoa processing hit over a 10-year high, increasing by 9% y/y, reaching 220,865 tonnes. Quarter on quarter, grindings also increased by 3.2%, as well as being above expectations of +4%.
- Swedish oils and fats giant AAK reported record-high Q2 financial results, with sales volumes reaching 550,000 tonnes, up by 14% y/y. This was driven by its Chocolate & Confectionery Fats segment, with sales volumes at 118,000 tonnes (+28%) in volume. This was backed by strong demand in South Latin America and the US, as well as for cocoa butter.

Trade

- The energy crisis had slowed Ivorian cocoa deliveries and exports, along with a lack of shipping containers due to the pandemic, forcing its cocoa regulator to limit the issuance of documents that clear bean deliveries at ports for shipment. This has supposedly caused a stockpile of more than 80,000 tonnes of beans in farm warehouses and stores, waiting to be shipped to ports. The export of beans and semi-finished cocoa products were down 23% y/y in June.

Price

- New York cocoa futures hit a four-month low this week, with the September contract tumbling by USD81 to USD2,239 on July 19. Cocoa prices have sold off sharply over the past week on concern the spread of the Covid delta variant worldwide will reduce economic activity and demand for commodities, including cocoa.
- Brazil’s domestic cocoa prices, started last week at a range of R$192.00–203.00/15-kilo unit, but after consecutive falls during the week, values plunged to R$180.00–186.00 ($2,346–2,424/tonne) on July 16.

Jul 23 - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- Marginal growth in Chilean raisin output
- Strong demand for Australian almonds
- Lack of containers hampering Chilean walnut deliveries

Production

- Chile’s 2021-22 raisin crop is expected to reach 59,000 tonnes (dried basis), 1% more year-on-year after the table grape planted area fell by 489 hectares to 45,000 ha, according to the USDA. Most Chilean farmers grow and harvest table grapes and decide in which industry to sell them (juice, fresh or driers) every season based on the prices offered by purchasers.
- Chile’s 2020-21 raisin area fell by 4.9% y-o-y to 45,489 hectares. The 2021-22 planted area might drop to 45,000 ha as many growers switch to more profitable products such as walnuts, citrus, cherries and avocados.
- Chilean walnut exporters have committed 80-85% of the crop and prices are rising, particularly for kernels.
- Thailand’s summer crops of pineapple, papaya and mango are sold out. Thailand has vaccinated only 10% of the population, maintaining still most restrictions and slowing the production timeframe for domestic dehydrators of its tropical fruits, Dutch broker QFN Trading & Agency reported in its latest market update this week.

Demand

- A modest increase is projected in domestic consumption of Chilean raisins and in exports, which continue to account for most of the offtake.
- Like the US, Australia is seeing strong demand for its almonds. This is evident in an increase in shipments in the current season so far (see Trade below).

Trade

- The Chilean walnut market is facing difficulties as container scarcity has led to an additional three-four weeks over traditional transit times between Chile’s ports and importers.
- The USDA forecasts that domestic consumption of Chilean raisins might rise by 1.5% to 3,600 tonnes and exports by 1% to 56,200 tonnes. This means that exports may account for 95% of the total produced volume.
- Australia’s almond shipments reached 11,220 kernel weight equivalence (KWE) tonnes this May, bringing seasonal sales to 18,110 tonnes, 67% more.
- Freight scarcity is still hitting prices and delivery times on Thai tropical dried fruits.

Price

- Thai tropical dried fruit prices are expected to be stable until the October harvests.
- Chilean walnut processor La Invernada listed the following prices in July:
In-shells: USD3.25-3.35 per kilo fob for 30-34 mm, 8% more month-on-month; USD3.85-3.95/kg for 34-36 mm, 4% more: and USD4.10-4.20/kg for 36 mm+, 2% more.
Kernels: USD9.00-9.20/kg for LHP80, 5% more; USD7.90-8.0/kg for LHP40, 7% more; USD6.9-7.0/kg for large pieces, 13% more.

Jul 23 - Market Briefing: Sugar (IHSmarkit)

- China's sugar imports in June 2021 reached 420,000 tonnes
- Mexico produced 3,126 tonnes of sugar in the week to 17 July
- Kenya’s sugar imports rose 9% to 24,735 tonnes in May

Production

Mexico produced 3,126 tonnes of sugar in the week to 17 July, down from 3,734 tonnes in the previous week but above 1,795 tonnes in the same week a year ago, official data show. There is only one out of 49 mills still operational. This brought total sugar production so far in 2020/21 to 5,713,076 tonnes - 434,756 tonnes more than was produced by the same time a year ago. The cane crush has now reached 51.263 million tonnes, up 4.0% from 49.274 million processed by the same time a year ago. The cane yield is 3.3% higher so far this season at 64.94 tonnes per ha, while the sugar extraction rate is up sharply at 11.14% from 10.71%.

Demand

China's (official) sugar imports in June 2021 reached 420,000 tonnes, up from 180,000 in the previous month but hardly changed from 410,000 tonnes in the same month last year, customs data show. This brought total sugar imports in the first nine months of 2020/21 (October/September) to 4.53 million tonnes, up sharply from 2.23 million imported in the same period last year and the highest total ever imported during the first nine months of the season.

Trade

Kenya's sugar imports rose 9% to 24,735 tonnes in May 2021 from 23,138 tonnes as the government covered for a seasonal slump in domestic production, cushioning consumers from a potential rise in prices of the sweetener, the Sugar Directorate said. Imports of refined sugar totalled 8,120 tonnes while mill white/brown sugar imports were 16,615 tonnes, said the directorate in its monthly report.

Price

It was a mixed week for Raw sugar futures in New York, ending with slight losses by Thursday (July 22) in the actively-traded contracts and fractional gains in the deferred deliveries as the market was in consolidation mode. It largely ignored another frost event in Brazil's Centre/South which set the coffee market alight as the affected cane areas had already been harvested so the additional damage was seen minimal. October delivery ended down 5 points at 17.62 cents per pound, in dealings between 17.47 and 17.74 cents. Second-month March shed 1 point to 18.08 cents per pound, while the rest of the board ended between flat and up 4 points. 

Jul 23 - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- India's coffee output is estimated to rise to an all-time high of 369,000 tonnes
- US green coffee stocks in port warehouses dropped by 35,678 60-kg bags in June
- Arabica coffee futures hit a 6½-year high on Brazilian frost

Production

India's coffee output is estimated to rise to an all-time high of 369,000 tonnes (6.15 million 60-kg bags) in 2021/22, up 10.5% from a downwardly revised 334,000 tonnes (5.567 million bags) in 2020/21, the Coffee Board of India said in its post-blossom estimate. It projected arabica production to rise to 108,300 tonnes (1.805 million bags) from 99,000 tonnes (1.650 million bags), while robusta output is seen increasing to 260,700 tonnes (4.345 million bags) from 235,000 tonnes (3.917 million bags).

Demand

US green coffee stocks in port warehouses dropped by 35,678 60-kg bags during June 2021 to reach 5,779,461 bags at the end of the month, according to the Green Coffee Association (GCA). Stocks were down 18.2% from the year-ago level of 7,061,198 bags. Stocks had increased for two consecutive months since hitting a six-year low of 5.679 million bags late in March but are now headed back to multi-year lows. Stocks remain well above 2011’s historical low of around 4 million bags. The largest decreases in the last month were reported in the ports of San Francisco and Norfolk.

Trade

Frost that struck the coffee belt this week has sparked fears of farmers defaulting on deliveries of recently-harvested coffee that was sold to commodities traders months ago at prices that now are half the current values. An unusual cold snap, with temperatures dropping to freezing levels in a matter of minutes on the morning of July 20, delivered a blow to the heart of the coffee belt, damaging trees and harming prospects for the 2022/23 crop. Estimates on Thursday (July 22) varied on possible losses to next year's crop as the market digests the damage. Initial forecasts of a loss of 1-2 million bags quickly increased. Exporter Guaxupe said it expects a cut of 4.5 million bags on initial projections of nearly 70 million for 2022/23 production.

Price

Arabica coffee futures gained 10% on Thursday’s close (July 22) to hit a 6½-year high amid mounting concern about the damage to next year’s crop in Brazil from this week’s frost. Benchmark September arabica contract settled up 17.65 cents at 193.65 cents per pound, having hit its highest since November 2014 at 195.50 cents earlier in the session. The intraday low was 180.00 cents. It has gained nearly 20% this week. December was up 17.70 cents at 196.60 cents per pound and the rest of the board gained 15.20-17.50 cents.

Jul 23 - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- Guatemala records 45.7% boost in cardamom exports in first five months of the year
- Brazilian organic honey prices gain 4.3% between May and July
- Steady demand for Peruvian chilli

Production

The Argentine honey harvest finished this March and a crop of around 71,000-72,000 tonnes is expected, similar to last season.

Demand

- A similar pattern applies to Argentine honey. Brazil, meanwhile, has achieved a sharp boost in its honey exports, which further highlights continued keen consumer buying of honey this year.
- Peruvian chilli is attracting a consistent level of demand, as evident in H1 2021 export volumes.

Trade

- Vietnam’s H1 2021 pepper exports were 154,000 tonnes, worth USD496.8 million, 7.5% less year-on-year in volume and 40% more in value, thanks to gradual growth in prices since January. The US and the UAE were the main importers, accounting for 21% and 7%, respectively, of the total volume.
- Guatemala’s cardamom exports from January-May 2021 reached 21,910 tonnes, worth USD451.8 million, 45.7% more year-on-year in volume and 15% more in value.
- Argentina’s international honey sales between January and May 2021 fell by 11% year-on-year in volume to 29,220 tonnes but increased by 29% in value to USD96.8 million.
- Brazilian honey exports over the first five months of this year rose by 64% year-on-year in volume to 26,630 tonnes and trebled in value to USD88.0 million.
- Indian guar gum exports were 50,390 tonnes, worth US64.5 million, in Q1 2021, 10% less year-on-year in volume and 19% less in value. The US, Germany and China accounted for 30%, 14% and 10%, respectively, of the total exported volume.
- Peru’s chilli exports reached 19,525 tonnes, worth USD57.3 million in H1 2021, unchanged in volume and 17% more in value than in H1 2020.

Price

- Vietnam’s pepper prices started at USD3,900/tonne cif nw Europe in the first week of July, USD100 more than in June, according to IHS Markit.
- Argentine honey prices rose by 63% to USD4,250/tonne cif nw Europe for 25 mm between November 2019-March 2021, according to IHS Markit. Prices fell to USD4,100/tonne between March and the first fortnight of July.
- Brazilian organic honey prices rose by 4.3% between May and the first half of July to USD3,893/tonne cif nw Europe, after falling by 7% to USD3,730/tonne between February-May.

Jul 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

London sat back yesterday and let New York do the work accordingly. Covering against the speculative short position only led to an upward breakout in the afternoon. The origin only showed itself "disciplined" in the market and could not offer any significant resistance. Dec 21 ended the day GBP +12 at GBP 1631, near the highs of GBP 1633. Close Dec 21 NY $ +44 at $2361. Otherwise the market had little to give. Rumour has it that Ivory Coast has already pre-sold about 1.4 mt from 21/22. But what is fixed, priced in and what is not? Or the old question...Which came first, the chicken or the egg?

Jul 23 - Brazil coffee frost sparks default fears, crop recovery may take years 

Frost that struck Brazil's coffee belt this week has sparked fears of farmers defaulting on deliveries of recently-harvested coffee that were sold to commodities traders months ago at prices that now are half the current values. An unusual cold snap, with temperatures dropping to freezing levels in a matter of minutes on the morning of July 20, delivered a blow to the heart of Brazil's coffee belt, damaging trees and harming prospects for next year's crop.

Jul 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Yesterday, the market was once again in motion, generating almost 30k lots and a spread of around GBP 40 in London. The Dec 21 contract rose by GBP 30 in the meantime and - as a few days ago - marked a daily high of GBP 1640. The focus was again on the Sep / Dec 21 spread, which in the morning, with good turnover, converged around GBP 10 in the meantime, but closed almost unchanged. The managed money fraction seems to continue to seek its fortune on the short side, which also suggests a significantly increased open interest. Due to yesterday's vitality in London and a slightly firmer British pound in the afternoon, arbitrage also lost as much as GBP 15 in the front months.

Jul 22 - Freak Brazil frost hits heart of coffee belt, damaging crops 

An unusual cold snap, with temperatures dropping to freezing levels in a matter of minutes, delivered a blow to the heart of Brazil's coffee belt, damaging trees and harming prospects for next year's crop, farmers said on Wednesday. Agricultural products across the western hemisphere have been beset by unusually bad weather - be it floods or extreme drought - all season. Brazil is the world's largest coffee producer, as its climate is most conducive for production of the beans. Coffee prices surged nearly 13% in response to the frosts to a 6-1/2-year high

Jul 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A weak British pound provided slight support only at the beginning of yesterday's trading. At a much slower pace than the previous day, it went down gently. As suspected, the Dec 21 tested the GBP 1600 support we know well yesterday, with a low of GBP 1604. Open interest increased by about 5k lots (in LDN & NY), signalling further good buying interest at current levels. Dec 21 ended the day at GBP -2 at GBP 1610. Sep / Dec 21 spread found good support at the lows of GBP -55 and ended the day at GBP -51. Volume was reasonable, for the second day in a row, at just over 30k lots compared to the weeks before.

Jul 21 - Frosts hit Brazil's cane, coffee and orange crops, says weather expert 

Frosts hit crops including sugar cane, coffee and orange in the center-south region of Brazil on Tuesday, according to a report by a Rural Clima meteorologist. Marco Antonio dos Santos, a meteorologist who is a partner and director at the weather service consultancy, said earlier on Tuesday that he had received multiple videos showing frosts, but noted it was too early to determine the exact damage to these crops. Temperatures should rise starting on Wednesday as a cold front moves away, he said.

Jul 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The general weakness in commodities (crude oil partly -6.5% / coffee -2% / sugar -3%) also led to a bang in cocoa. Dec 21 lost GBP -30 and ended the day at GBP 1612, close to the lows of GBP 1611. The close Sep / Dec 21 and Dec 21 / Mar 22 also continued to weaken, further forcing the downside. The Dec 21 chart shows its lowest close since mid-January. The continuation charts paint a different picture, here we may assume further support towards GBP 1600 / 1570. The industry gradually woke up and accompanied the market, mainly in the first half 22, with price hedges. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as of 18.07 are at 2.087 mt vs. 1.993 mt from 19/20 (+4.7%).

Jul 19 - Frost Hits Brazilian Coffee Lands, Extent of Damage Not Yet Known

[Editor’s note: Beginning two weeks ago (Jul 12 ), approximately three nights of frost touched farmlands in Southeastern Brazil, affecting corn, sugarcane, potato and other important food and cash crops.

Frost also touched several key coffee-growing regions — in parts of the states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Paraná — compounding troubles for many producers who were already negatively affected by sustained high temperatures in 2020 and drought conditions earlier this year.

While exact losses to Brazilian coffee production as a direct result of frost exposure may not be known for months, some producers have shared photos of coffee plants with leaves turned brown and black from exposure to freezing temperatures. Reuters recently contacted several Brazilian coffee brokers who were each assessing the damage that one exporting company described as “not negligible.”

Assessing the Damage

The damage caused by the most recent event is still difficult to measure. The first visible indication of damage, one that has been widely observed, is burnt leaves and their subsequent fall. Within the next 15 to 20 days, it may be possible to observe whether plants have died or been severely damaged.

Younger crops less than four years old are generally more affected by the cold, as their thinner branches, roots, and trunks are more vulnerable. Another factor is that younger plants have a less dense canopy, which favors the entry of cold air and reduces heat storage the night before the frost.

Consequences for the 2021 and 2022 harvests

Consequences for the 2021 harvest are almost zero, as in most coffee regions the seeds are already fully formed and rigid, so even if the fruit suffers damage, the chance of this seed being affected is minimal. Possible exceptions may occur in cases where there are immature fruits with high water content, but this is also not very representative of the totality of harvested areas in the country now.

The impacts of the 2022 harvest are what may be of most concern to players in the coffee chain. Agronomists begin to estimate how much coffee will be produced in the next harvest season based on conditions in the previous year. In this case, the end of the rainy season in March/April 2021, before the drop in temperatures, will affect plant production in 2022.

Jul 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A mixture of hedging pressure and speculative selling continued to pressure the market on Friday. After a failed bounce in the early morning, Dec 21 traded at lows of GBP 1632 and is heading towards GBP 1600. Sep 21 broke through this and found expected support there. Closing Sep21 GBP -12 at GBP 1592, Dec 21 GBP -8 at GBP 1642. Commitment of Traders figures as at 13.07 show an increase in position of 7,248 lots and now a long position again of 6,338 lots Combined. Also unsurprising after the firm move at the end of the week before last, where the market gained a good GBP 90 in a few days.

Jul 16 - Market Briefing: Cocoa (IHSmarkit)

- European Q2 cocoa grinding rises to highest level in at least 10-years
- Germany’s Q2 cocoa processing up 18% y/y, Brazil’s June processing up 32.8% y/y
- Barry Callebaut nine-month sales volumes +3.4%, Q3 chocolate sales volumes up 21.2%

Production

- Cocoa volumes arriving at Ivory Coast’s ports dipped again in weekly comparisons, to a total of 13,000 tonnes (5-11 July), down from the 24,000 tonnes during the same week last season, as well as slightly below last week’s 14,000 tonnes. Nevertheless, cumulatively, supplies still appear to be abundant, with arrivals reaching 2.074 million tonnes by July 11, up 5.1% from 1.973 million tonnes over the same period last season.

Demand

- European cocoa processing figures for Q2 2021 rose to their highest level in at least 10-years and could potentially be its all-time peak for the quarter, the European Cocoa Association (ECA) indicated. Europe’s second-quarter cocoa grind increased by 13.6 % from a year earlier to 356,854 tonnes, compared to Q2 2020’s 314,108 tonnes. The new figure was also above market expectations of +7.5%, but below Q1’s 357,815 tonnes.
- Germany’s own second quarter 2021 cocoa grind also rose 18% on the year to 93,064 tonnes, its confectionery industry association BDSI said. Grindings rose because of increased industrial demand as the economy recovered from the impact of the coronavirus crisis, with quarterly grindings close to pre-pandemic levels, the association stated.
- Cocoa crushing in Brazil totaled 310,221 60-kilo bags (18,613 tonnes) in June, a decrease of 12.3% m/m but up 32.8% y/y.
- Swiss chocolatier, Barry Callebaut, saw its nine-month fiscal year sales volumes accelerate (+3.4%) with chocolate (+21.2%) in particular reporting a strong performance.

Trade

- In June, Brazil’s total cocoa exports were down 3% y/y to 4,775 tonnes, but up 9% y/y in value at $16 million, due to Bahian exports rising in both volume and revenue, according to the government official data (Secex). The state of Bahia’s exports were 3% higher y/y in volume and saw a 15% y/y hike in value, to 4,751 tonnes and USD16 million, respectively. From February to June, Brazilian exports tallied 49,229 tonnes according to data from Ilhéus port, but according to government data, it was lower at 38,005 tonnes. Brazilian industries have already reported that 43,212 tonnes will be released in the next weeks.

Price

- Cocoa futures recovered from last week’s eight-month lows with the New York hitting a 3½-week high, spurred by hints of improved market demand. September New York cocoa reached USD2,430 on Monday’s close (July 12), however, a stronger dollar capped further gains with prices ending at USD2,402 by Wednesday (July 14).

Jul 16 - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- Ugandan coffee exports hit 30-year high
- Japanese green coffee stocks totaled 2.863 million 60-kg bags at the end of May
- Vietnamese coffee exports in June amounted to 128,036 tonnes

Production

- Brazil’s 2021/22 robusta harvest has virtually been concluded in Rondônia, while progress in Espírito Santo stood at 70-80%. Progress was slowed by a high share of green beans and a lack of work force. Harvest progress with arabica stood at 50-60% in Zona da Mata, 40-50% in Garça and in Cerrado Mineiro and 30-40% in northwest Parana. In Sul de Minas and Mogiana, it stood at slightly below 30%, Harvest pace was supported by recent dry weather conditions, while low temperatures in May and June and earlier blossoming delayed crop development.

Demand

- Japanese green coffee stocks held in ports amounted to 2.863 million 60-kg bags at the end of May 2021, up from 2.808 million at the end of the previous month but 38,967 bags below the count at the same time last year. This was the 14th straight month during which stocks were lower than in the same month last year even though the year-over-year decline is rather small. Most of the beans were from Brazil, followed by Central America and Colombia.

Trade

- Ugandan coffee exports totaled 618,388 60-kg bags in June, up from 420,563 bags one year earlier and the highest ever in a single month since 1991. This brought total coffee exports to 4,509,437 bags, up from 3,791,089 a year ago.
- Vietnamese coffee exports in June amounted to 128,036 tonnes compared with 130,285 tonnes in May and 127,700 in June 2020. This brought total exports to around 1.157 million tonnes down from 1.302 million tonnes in the same period a year ago.
- Brazilian green coffee exports in June rose 0.3% over the same month a year ago to around 2.730 million 60 kg bags, with limited shipping capacity still a problem. So far in the current cycle, a total of 8.933 million bags was exported, up 5.2% on 2019/20.

Price

- Coffee future prices settled higher by Wednesday (July 14) with the market gaining support partly from a strengthening of the real against the dollar. The benchmark September arabica coffee contract settled up 4.35 cents at 156.60 cents per pound.
- The index for arabica coffee type 6, delivered São Paulo state, closed at BRL854.69 per bag, as of 12 July, up 1.9% on one week earlier. The one for robusta was up 5% at BRL527.94. Support came from higher world market prices and a lack of selling interest for arabicas.

Jul 16 - Market Briefing: Sugar (IHSmarkit)

- Brazil’s CS crushed 45 million tonnes of sugarcane in the second half of June, + 4.4% y/y
- Indian sugar mills have exported 4.75 million tonnes so far in 2020/21
- USTR to reallocate 76,571 tonnes of sugar to several exporting countries

Production

- Mills in Brazil’s Centre/South (CS) crushed 45 million tonnes of sugarcane in the second half of June, up 4.4% on the year, industry organization Unica said. Combined with slightly higher industrial yields this allowed sugar and ethanol output to rise by almost 6% on the year to 2.9 million tonnes and 2.1 million cubic meters, respectively. Despite rises in late June, the 2021/22 season continues to trail last year. Sugar production is down 8% while that of ethanol is 4% lower.
- Indian sugar production in 2021/22 (October/September) will remain flat at around 31 million tonnes against 30.9 million in the current year, industry body the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said.

Demand

- Indian sugar consumption in 2020/21 is put at 26 million tonnes and exports will reach 7 million tonnes, an all-time high. As a result, sugar opening stock at the start of the 2021/22 sugar season is expected to be around 8.7 million tonnes, the lowest in the last four years and down 2 million on the year.
- Pakistan’s Minister for Finance and Revenue Shaukat Tarin, ordered a procurement of 100,000 tonnes of sugar within one month to ensure strategic reserves of the sweetener in a meeting of the National Price Monitoring Committee.

Trade

- Indian sugar mills have exported 4.75 million tonnes, white value, so far in the ongoing 2020/21 (October/September) marketing year, trade body All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) said. Of the total exports undertaken so far, 1.58 million tonnes went to Indonesia, followed by Afghanistan at 582,776, the UAE at 447,097 and Sri Lanka at 363,972.
- The US federal government reallocated to other countries some of its lower-tariff sugar import quotas as it tries to guarantee supplies in the domestic market and rein in soaring local prices. The US Trade Representative (USTR) said it was reallocating 76,571 tonnes of sugar (raw value) to several exporting countries, with the Dominican Republic and Brazil receiving the largest shares.

Price

Raw sugar futures in New York ended lower for the third straight day by Wednesday (July 14), as market observers expect only limited damage by a recent frost wave in Brazil. Dealers said that physical demand remains weak because of high freight costs and sluggish consumption. October raw sugar declined 0.30 cents to 17.45 cents per pound, extending its decline from a four-month peak of 18.49 cents set last week.

Jul 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With only 750 lots of open position, July 21 quietly said goodbye with a last trade at GBP 1521. Thereafter, due to further hedging pressure from the origin, it went briskly downwards and Sep 21 tested, with a low of GBP 1601, the known support at GBP 1600. Closing price Sep 21 GBP -30 at GBP 1604. Dec 21 is now the second month (closing GBP -27 / GBP 1650). Q2 North American grinding figures are 11.68% above Q2 2020, also above expectations. Tonnage at 123k mt is at a stable pre-covid level. Asian grinding figures also came in this morning and are at the upper end of expectations at +8.98%.

Jul 16 - Recovery in Indian guar gum prices (IHSmarkit)

- 4% increase in spot price
- 10% fall in exports

India’s guar gum spot price was INR6,572 per quintal ($88.12/quintal) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 14 July, 4% more than on 18 June.

Indian exports were 50,390 tonnes, worth $64.5 million, in Q1 2021, 10% less year-on-year in volume and 19% less in value. The US, Germany and China accounted for 30%, 14% and 10%, respectively, of the total exported volume.

The daily futures market prices on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) were:

- INR6,340/quintal for deliveries in July 2021 on 14 July, INR32 more than on 15 June.

Jul 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The onset of hedging pressure from the origin helped, at least in the second half of the day, to push Sep 21 below the "magic" GBP 1640 mark, the very resistance that has now accompanied us for 6-7 weeks. The Sep 21 ended the day with GBP -11 at GBP 1634. The July 21 in London leaves the board today at noon, with only 883 lots of open interest one should not expect any major jumps here either. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire are estimated at 2.3 million mt at the end of the current crop, which would result in an absolute record crop with about 100,000 mt above the previous year. Didn't the CCC announce a few years ago, if we remember correctly, that the crop would be "capped" at 2.0 million tonnes?

Jul 15 - Area planted to potato reduced across Europe (IHSmarkit)

- Cultivated area has declined by 5% y-o-y to 498,000 ha
- Main crop earmarked for processing looks promising

The total potato area for the four largest producers in Europe (Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands) is almost 5% lower year-on-year and around 498,000 hectares.

There was a decrease in all countries, but decline was sharper for Belgium (-8%) and the Netherlands (-6.5%) whose planted area increased the most in past years. For the two remaining countries, the decline in around 3%. Nevertheless, this is the first time in decades that potato farmers have reduced their growing area. The declining planted area has boosted prices. In the past three or four months, traders in France and Belgium have purchased potatoes at prices higher than those released by industry organisations such as Belgapom.

Last week’s heavy rainfall could hinder a rapid enough build-up of dry matter in the early tubers. This could lead to some delays in the delivery of contracts.

Overall, potato plants have developed a lot of leaves, but tubers are much smaller than on average. “A lot of haulm; no tubers” is a remark often read on field reports.

Tuberization in maincrop varieties seems higher than what was the case in the last three or four years. A high tuber count is usually a promise of a potential good harvest, but of course one needs enough water in August and September to fill and fatten all the tubers. At the same time, a heatwave or a drought will have a greater impact on plants which did not develop many roots.

Production costs for the 2021-22 season are building up as prices for blight sprays, energy and fertilizers have all increased. There is still some uncertainty on the demand side as new waves of Covid-19 and potential new restrictions could slow down raw material demand from the processing industries.

In the first quarter of 2021, frozen French fries trade has remained below 2020’s levels for the same period. Exports from Belgium declined 8% to 647,000 tonnes while those from the Netherlands dropped by 13% to 388,000 tonnes. The market shows clear sign of recovery in North America, with shipments from Canada going up from 263,000 tonnes to 275,000 tonnes (+4%) and those from the US recovering slightly from 255,000 tonnes to 266,000 tonnes.

Jul 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

London opened slightly higher, certainly on the back of the positive grinding figures, although these were only at pre-crisis levels, not forgetting that a considerable volume was being ground in Europe rather than at the origin in view of Côte d'Ivoire's energy supply problems. However, a clear reaction failed to develop. Technical resistance at the 100-day moving average (GBP 1661) and new selling pressure erased the gains, with the Sep 21 contract ending the day 5 points down at GBP 1645. The Jul/Sep21 front spread converged around GBP 23, with the July 21 contract expiring tomorrow morning gaining GBP 18.

Jul 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the rapid rise in prices on Friday afternoon, the cocoa market continued to move almost unchecked upwards yesterday. The significant expansion of the speculative short position (see yesterday's report) led to the "compulsion" of some shorts to liquidate their position yesterday. The Sep 21 gained GBP +40 and ended the day at its highs of GBP 1650, thus (finally) recording another breakout from the range of the last 6 weeks. Year-on-year, the grinding figures were better than expected (approx. +7%). Is Q2 20 enough of a comparison? Here are the comparisons of the last years: ECA Q2 20 vs. 19 +3.46% / vs. 18 +0.2%, Germany Q2 21 vs. 19 -1.21% / vs. 18 -1.37%. This puts the rather average tonnage (ECA 356,854mt) into a different perspective - but do the "specs" know that ???

Jul 13 - Coffee Prices Soar After Bad Harvests and Insatiable Demand (DJ)
     Global coffee prices are climbing and threatening to drive up costs at the breakfast table as the world's biggest coffee producer, Brazil, faces one of its worst droughts in almost a century.

     Prices for arabica coffee beans -- the main variety produced in Brazil -- hit their highest level since 2016 last month. New York-traded arabica futures have risen over 18% in the past three months to $1.51 a pound. London-traded robusta -- a stronger-tasting variety favored in instant coffee -- has risen over 30% in the past three months, to $1,749 a metric ton, a two-year high.

     Brazil's farmers are girding for one of their biggest slumps in output in almost 20 years after months of drought left plants to wither. Brazil's arabica crop cycles between one stronger year followed by a weaker year. Following a record harvest in 2020, 2021 was set to be a weaker year, but the drop is more severe than expected.
"I've been growing coffee more than 50 years, and I've never seen as bad a drought as the one last year and this year," said Christina Valle, a third-generation coffee grower in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest coffee-growing state.

"I normally take three months to harvest my coffee; this year it took me a month," she said.

     Brazil's total coffee harvest this year is expected to drop by the biggest year-over-year amount since 2003, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Its arabica crop is forecast to be almost 15 million 132-pound bags smaller than in 2020.

     Others are guarding for an even larger slump. Dutch agricultural bank Rabobank expects the harvest to be 17 million bags smaller, while commodities brokerage ED&F Man, whose Volcafe arm is one of the world's largest coffee traders, expects a decline of more than 23 million bags.
"A drop that severe is unprecedented," said Kona Haque, head of research at ED&F Man.

     The pandemic shook up how consumers drink coffee. Demand for at-home machines and instant brews rose, compensating somewhat for closed coffee shops. The price rally comes just as Western nations are emerging from lockdowns and cafes are welcoming back customers starved of out-of-home coffee culture.

     Global coffee consumption is expected to exceed production this year for the first time since 2017, according to the USDA. 165 million bags of beans are expected to be consumed in 2021. That is 1.8 million bags more than last year. Meanwhile, global coffee production is expected to decline to 164.8 million bags.

     There are other factors behind the price rally. Two other major producing nations, Colombia and Vietnam, have had much better harvests than Brazil but are struggling with a different issue: Port delays have left beans sitting idle on the dock.

     Exports of Colombian coffee, particularly desired by baristas for its milder flavor, fell as antigovernment protesters blocked highways and ports. A shortage of shipping containers and rocketing freight costs hit Vietnamese farmers, who produce more than a third of the world's supply of robusta.
"The whole supply chain suffered not only a significant increase in costs but also massive delays," said Carlos Mera, head of agri-commodities market research at Rabobank. Unlike other commodities, coffee can only be moved around the globe in containers, he said.

     Investors are also playing a role, betting that commodities will benefit from rising prices generally. Some investors bid up the price of coffee by putting money in commodity index funds that track broad baskets of commodities from industrial metals to coffee and cocoa, said Mr. Mera.
"There is a lot of money right now that is very keen on holding commodities as real assets, as hedges against inflation," he said.

     Coffee roasters have so far held off from passing higher prices on to consumers, said Ms. Haque. The higher costs of beans coupled with higher freight costs could mean roasters start charging consumers more if they think post-lockdown demand will be strong, she said.

     In Brazil, farmers say their stockpiles left over from last year's bumper crop are dwindling and they are concerned they could run out before next year's harvest begins.
"We 're a bit worried about having enough to sell next year," said José Marcos Magalha, president of the Minasul coffee cooperative. The cooperative is urging members to deliver whatever coffee they have to the cooperative so that it can keep meeting its orders, he said.

     Coffee lovers could still find a reprieve. Brazil's spring rains, which typically fall in September, will be crucial for determining whether damaged coffee plants can recover and produce enough beans during next year's harvest, said Steve Pollard, a coffee analyst at brokerage Marex.

     The alternative could see prices rise even higher, he said. Coffee plants take about 2 1/2 years to develop, and farmers can't respond quickly by simply planting more crops. "If there is a significant deficit then prices could skyrocket," he said.

Jul 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After a week in negative territory, or below GBP 1600 / Sep 21, a Friday afternoon was enough to close the market on a positive note. A weak US$, as well as decent profit taking by the shorts, took Sep 21 to highs of GBP 1611. Closing just below that at GBP 1610 / GBP 26. Commitment of Traders as of 06.07 reflected the "worries" of some shorts and they liquidated at least part of their position. These same shorts increased their position (gross within managed money) by almost 8k lots to 83,010 lots, the largest speculative short position since July 2020. Net both exchanges now stand at a short position of 910 lots. Tomorrow, the ECA grinding figures will be published.

Jul 09 - Market Briefing: Cocoa (IHSmarkit)

- Ghana’s cocoa arrivals rose to 981,222 tonnes as of June 17
- US chocolate market expanded by 1.8% in 2020 to reach USD18.92 billion
- Ivory Coast’s cocoa grinding fell by 22.2% in June to 35,000 tonnes

Production

- Ghana’s graded and sealed (G&S) cocoa arrivals rose to 981,222 tonnes as of June 17 from the start of this year’s harvest on October 1, compared with 754,800 tonnes the previous season, the latest figures from marketing board Cocobod showed. Cocoa production in Ghana is expected to reach 950,000 tonnes this season, higher than a previous Cocobod forecast of 800,000 tonnes. IHS Markit currently places Ghana’s production for the 2020/21 season at 970,000 tonnes, up from 800,000 tonnes in the previous season.

Demand

- The US chocolate market expanded by 1.8% in 2020 to reach USD18.92 billion, Statista data via research findings by GlobeScan and Fairtrade indicated. Fairtrade cocoa sales volumes topped other commodities and grew by 27% over the year, resulting in almost USD3 million in Fairtrade Premium payments for cocoa farmers. In the UK, Fairtrade cocoa sales volumes topped other commodities and grew by 3% over the year, generating an outstanding GBP6 million in Fairtrade Premium payments for cocoa farmers. In the Netherlands, Fairtrade cocoa continued to experience strong growth of 16% in 2020. As a result, Fairtrade farmers received approximately USD3.1 million in Fairtrade Premium for cocoa beans sold to the Dutch market.
- Ivory Coast’s cocoa grinding fell by 22.2% in June to 35,000 tonnes, from 45,000 tonnes a year ago, data from exporters' association GEPEX showed. In total, grinders processed 402,000 tonnes of cocoa beans by the end of June, down from 422,000 tonnes over the same period last season

Trade

- Ghana shipped 465,136 tonnes of cocoa beans globally in 2020, with over half, 255,778 tonnes, heading to the EU (minus the UK). Total exports of cocoa bean and cocoa preparations, from Ghana to the EU, reached 341,516 tonnes.

Price

- Cocoa futures hit several eight-month lows this week, aided by demand concerns amid ample cocoa supplies. By Thursday (July 8), September New York cocoa on Thursday (July 8) closed down USD1 to USD2,295, while September London cocoa closed down GBP9 to GBP1,584. Cocoa prices are also generally weak on forecasts for rain in much of West Africa this week, which should aid cocoa yields.
- In Brazil, domestic cocoa prices started last week at BRL175.00–188.00/15-kilo bags, and after an upward movement during the week, reached BRL179.00–190.00 (US$2,366–2,511/tonne) on July 1. There was no report of prices last Friday (July 2).

Jul 09 - Market Briefing: Sugar (IHSmarkit)

- Philippines sugar production currently at 2,134,640 tonnes, down from 2,141,914 last season
- UK government faces legal challenge over duty-free tariff quota of 260,000 tonnes for importers
- EU sugar output forecast at 15.5 million tonnes for 2021/22, up from 14.5 million in 2020/21

Production

- Philippines sugar production in the week ended 27 June 2021 amounted to 3,923 tonnes, up from 3,761 in the same period a year ago, SRA data show. This brought total production so far in 2020/21 to 2,134,640 tonnes, down from 2,141,914 by the same time in 2019/20. The sugarcane crush has reached 25,142,292 tonnes, up from 23,250,661 tonnes last year.
- White sugar production in the EU-27 is forecast to rise in the 2021/22 season to 15.5 million tonnes, up from the prior season’s 14.5 million. This would mean that the sugar beet harvest could reach up to 110 million tonnes, up 11% y/y.

Demand

- The UK government is to face a judicial review over its decision to grant a duty-free tariff quota of 260,000 tonnes for importers of cane sugar. The tariff quota was the only major unilateral step taken by the UK government to liberalize its import regime when it created its Global Tariff prior to leaving the EU customs union last year. According to British Sugar, the creation of the autonomous tariff rate quota (ATQ) amounted to a subsidy in favour of the UK’s sole cane sugar refiner, Tate & Lyle.

Trade

- Total UK imports of sugar from non-European origins in January-April totaled 170,564 tonnes – down by 17.3% on the same period in 2020. Exports to the UK from Central American states – El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Guatemala – amounted to a combined total of more than 47,000 tonnes over the four months, compared with just 374 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. But imports from Brazil, which had been widely assumed to be a likely beneficiary of the ATQ, are down by almost half over the January-April period, at 34,665 tonnes.

Price

- Raw sugar futures in New York ended lower for a third straight day by Thursday (July 8), as market observers expect only limited damage by a recent frost wave in Brazil. Dealers said that physical demand remains weak because of high freight costs and sluggish consumption. October raw sugar declined 0.30 cents to 17.45 cents per pound, extending its decline from a four-month peak of 18.49 cents set last week. The March contract fell 0.24 cents to 17.78 cents, and the rest of the board lost between 0.05 and 0.22 cents in volume of 81,853 lots.

Jul 09 - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- Brazil’s coffee harvest progress from the 2021/22 crop stood at 54% as of 7 July
- Global coffee consumption seen at 167.20 million bags in 2020/21
- Indonesia’s 2020/21 coffee exports rose to 8.2 million 60-kg bags

Production

- Brazil’s coffee harvest progress from the 2021/22 crop stood at 54% as of 7 July, reported local consultancy Safras & Mercado, which compares with 48% in the preceding week, 56% last year, and a five-year average of 58%. Progress with arabica crops stood at 42%, against 46% last year and 50% for the five-year average. For robusta crops, the harvest pace reached 73%, down from 79% and 84%, respectively. Safras & Mercado’s estimate translates into 30.45 million 60-kg bags harvested.

Demand

- Global coffee consumption is now seen at 167.20 million bags this 2020/21 season from a previous 167.58 million bags and below the 168.5 million seen before the pandemic, said the International Coffee Organization (ICO). In addition, it raised its 2020/21 surplus estimate to 2.30 million bags in June from 2.01 million bags in May, primarily due to a reduced consumption projection.

Trade

- Indonesia's total coffee exports rose to 8.2 million 60-kg bags in 2020/21 from 7.711 million in 2019/20. Exports of green beans surged to 6.4 million bags from 6 million a year earlier, while shipments of soluble coffee recovered somewhat to 1.6 million bags after falling to a four-year low of 1.5 million the year before.
- Colombian exports of washed arabica coffee in June 2021 reached 986,000 60-kg bags, down 11% from the 1.111 million bags in the same month last year. This brought exports in the first nine months of the current 2020/21 cycle to 9.478 million bags, flat on the year.
- Members of the ICO exported 9.786 million 60-kg bags of coffee in May 2021, down 10.1% from 10.901 million in the same month last year.

Price

- Arabica coffee futures took a sharp drop earlier in the week, with September arabica at 148.10 cents per pound, amid a commodities sell-off. A weaker Brazilian currency, with the real trading at its weakest against the dollar since early June, was also seen as a bearish factor. The perception that most Brazilian coffee escaped more serious damage from last week’s frosts also weighed, despite reports of localized losses. By Thursday (July 8), prices had recovered to 152.25 cents per pound.
- Meanwhile, farmers in the Vietnam’s Central Highlands sold at VND34,600-35,500 ($1.50-1.54) per kg, down from VND34,800-36,200 a week earlier. In Indonesia, Sumtran robusta beans were offered with $30-50 premiums over August, unchanged from last week.

Jul 09 - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- 47% increase in France’s honey crop.
- India closed Q1 with a sharp rise in pepper exports.
- Bullish Chinese dehydrated garlic prices.

Production

- India’s 2020-21 cumin crop is expected to reach 732,200 tonnes, 6% less year-on-year, on 1.24 million hectares, 2% less.
- Spain’s saffron crop may reach 600 kilos in the 2021-22 season, after dropping to 450 kilos in the 2019-20 season due to severe drought.
- France’s honey output rose by 47% year-on-year to 32,000 tonnes in 2020 thanks to a warm winter and a 12% increase in beehive numbers.

Demand

Demand for spices is rising in the US hostelry industry as the US processor McCormick ‘s results reveal. Its revenues rose by 11% year-on-year to 1.5 billion from March-May, bringing sales to USD3.3 bln in December 2020-May 2021, 16% more y-o-y thanks to robust flavour sales in the horeca sector.

Trade

- India’s cumin seed exports doubled year-on-year to 68,300 tonnes, worth USD133.5 million in Q1 2021, 44% more in value, according to customs data. China was the main importer of whole product, taking a third of the total exported volume.
- India’s pepper exports increased by 47% in volume to 6,020 tonnes, worth USD24.7 mln in Q1 2021, up from USD16.4 mln in Q1 2020. Crushed product sales accounted for 54% of the total volume. The US was the main importer, accounting for 57% of the total volume.
- Vietnam’s pepper exports fell by 17% in volume to 121,330 tonnes but rose by 23% in value to USD379.5 million from January-May 2021 thanks to price hiccup in Q1 2021, according to Vietnamese customs data. The US and the UAE were the main importers, accounting for 20% and 6%, respectively, of the total volume.

Prices

- India’s pepper prices have been stable at USD5,500/tonne ex-works NW Europe for MG1 grade since April, 19% more than in January 2021.
- Vietnam’s pepper prices started at USD3,900/tonne cif NW Europe in the first week of July, USD100 more than in June.
- Chinese Grade A garlic powder was quoted at USD3,000 per tonne cif in June, 20% more month-in-month and 40% more y-o-y. First grade granules were listed at USD3,054/tonne cif this June, 7% more m-o-m and 48% more y-o-y.

Jul 09 - Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts (IHSmarkit)

- 3.5% increase in Australia’s macadamia crop.
- Vietnam is taking advantage of the weak Indian demand for cashews.
- 15% increase in US pecan exports.

Production

- Australia’s 2021 macadamia output estimate has been downgraded by 4.5% to 48,500 (in-shell) tonnes at 3.5% moisture (52,000 tonnes at 10% moisture), after heavy rains hit plantations in New South Wales (NSW) between March-April, according to the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). The new forecast represents a 3.5% increase on last year’s crop.
- India’s government has planned to reach a peanut crop of 14 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season, up from 10.1 mln tonnes in the 2020-21 season, through its agricultural reform.
- US peanut farmers had completed 48% of pegging as of July 4, just three percentage points behind the same stage a year ago. Some crop progress has been hindered in Virginia due to drought and farmers are using irrigation.
- Turkey’s 2021-22 dried apricot production is expected to reach 110,000 tonnes, 22% more y-o-y.

Demand

- Weak Indian demand due to lockdowns in Q1 forced India’s cashew industry to export 34,000 tonnes of Raw Cashew Nuts (RCN) to Vietnam from January-March 2021 to offset losses.
- Demand for Turkish hazelnuts is subdued, importers and processors awaiting TMO’s purchasing prices in the last week of July.

Trade

- Vietnam’s cashew exports rose by 17.2% year-on-year in volume to 214,390 tonnes and by 14% in value to USD1.27 billion from January-May 2021, according to Vietnamese customs data. The US and China are the main importers, accounting for 29% and 15%, respectively, of the total volume.
- Indian cashew exports rose by 19% year-on-year in volume to 19,670 tonnes but fell by 3% to USD125.0 mln in Q1 2021.
- Global sales of US pecans were 8.2 million in-shell basis pounds this May, 23% less year-on-year, bringing seasonal (September-May) exports to 95.1 mln lbs, 15% more y-o-y.
- The total quantity of Turkish hazelnut exports between 1 September 2020-30 May 2021 was around 230,545 tonnes, down from 293,570 tonnes in the same period last year.
- Turkey’s processors are closed to clearing out the 2020-21 dried apricot production after exporting 84,320 tonnes, 9% less year-on-year

Price

- Turkey’s dried apricot prices averaged USD3,788 per tonne fob in June, a third more y-o-y.
- India’s government has announced a minimum support price (MSP) of INR5,550 per quintal (USD74.2/quintal) for peanuts.

Jul 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Continued selling pressure from the speculative community, put further pressure on prices yesterday. Sep 21 hit a 12-month low of GBP 1572 and ended the day GBP -9 at GBP 1584. 2022 dates are holding firm just above GBP 1650 and the structure continued to widen slightly. Buying interest from the industry is focusing more and more on next year's dates, this coupled with concerns (keyword Silly Season) about the coming crop is likely to cause at least the structure of the 20/21 & 21/22 crop to diverge further and speculative long positions do not necessarily gain in attractiveness as a result.

Jul 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The previous day's weak close in New York was followed by further speculative selling late yesterday morning, particularly from the London community. This helped the Sep 21 to lows of GBP 1678, close to the May lows, which (based on the 2 month) are GBP 1675. In a near perfect U turn, the market recovered to almost unchanged in the afternoon. Closing price still GBP -10 at GBP 1593. Industry showed cautious activity, mainly for dates in 2022. Which ended the day almost unchanged.  The next few days will show how sustainable yesterday's movement was. The GEPEX reported a decline of 21% in the Ivory Coast's grinding figures in June. This is certainly due to further problems in the energy supply. Next week on Tuesday, ECA will start with the Q2 grinding figures, NCA will follow on Thursday.

Jul 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

While Sep 21 dared a tentative look up in the morning, selling pressure in New York leads to a key reversal in the afternoon. Sep 21 turned around GBP 30 and traded at lows of GBP 1599, where, as seen in the last 6 weeks, buying interest from the industry set in. Closing Sep 21 GBP -24 at GBP 1603. New York Sep 21 ended the day at $2298 ($-21), the lowest close in 9 months now. Perhaps the market has a surprise or downside breakout in store for us today. Market sentiment continues to be Bearish...but if all are Bearish, this should be the biggest support of all. The origin held back yesterday and continues to look for the promised land above GBP 1640.

Jul 07 - EU sugar output seen higher in 2021/22, stocks to climb

Sugar production in the European Union is forecast to rise in the 2021/22 season leading to an increase in stocks of the sweetener, the European Commission said on Tuesday in a short-term outlook report. The EU's executive projected white sugar production would rise to 15.5 million tonnes in 2021/22, up from the prior season's 14.5 million.

Jul 06 - Fall in Indian cumin seed price steepens (IHSmarkit)

- 2% fall in spot prices.
- Exports increased by a third in Q1.

The Indian cumin seed fob spot price closed at INR13,600 (USD182.3/quintal) on 5 July at the Unjha market (Gujarat, North West), 2% less than on 7 June.

India’s 2020-21 cumin crop is expected to reach 732,200 tonnes, 6% less year-on-year, on 1.24 million hectares, 2% less.

Cumin seed exports doubled year-on-year to 68,300 tonnes, worth USD133.5 million in Q1 2021, 44% more in value, according to customs data. China was the main importer of whole product, taking a third of the total exported volume.

Updated daily futures market prices on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange were:

Deliveries in June 2021 closed at INR13,945/quintal on 18 June, 2% less than on 19 May.

Jul 06 - China’s fresh garlic purchasing prices expected to fall but fob prices remain high (IHSmarkit)

- Exports markets were mostly subdued in May.
- Coldstore buying remains low in July.

In May 2021, China’s fresh garlic exports continued the poor performance of April and fell to 125,000 tonnes, 17% down month-on-month and a 56% decrease from a year ago.
- The export price was USD1,000 per tonne fob in May, unchanged from the preceding month, but, 29% up year-on-year.
- IHS Markit was told by a local source that the high sea freight costs remain a challenge to Chinese exports.
- South-east Asia is the largest destination. Indonesia and Vietnam jointly accounted for about 44% of China’s total volumes in May. Both saw massive decreases compared with the same time last year, Indonesia 76% down y/o/y to 39,000 tonnes and Vietnam 37% down y/o/y to 16,000 tonnes.

In May, China’s export prices to Indonesia rose 37% y/o/y to USD820/tonne fob, USD514/tonne cheaper than those to Vietnam.

- China’s local media reported that total Indonesian consumption (including household and industrial) is about 500,000 tonnes per year; national output is about 20,000 tonnes and the rest relies on imports. Chinese garlic sent to Indonesia are mostly lower grade compared with those to Vietnam.
- In the same month, China’s shipments to Brazil and the US fell to 5,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes, decreases of 48% y/o/y and 6% y/o/y, respectively. The fob prices to both countries fell by 16% y/o/y and 6% y/o/y, respectively.

In China’s producing regions, there is more selling than buying. Some analysts forecast that purchasing prices are at risk of falling further.
- Up to the first week of July, at Shandong’s Jinxiang (the main producing region), among the 1,000 cold storage facilities, fewer than 60 units have started collecting garlic. Vendors normally rent these storage facilities and collect garlic for future sales or for speculation purposes.

On 4 July, the purchasing price of mixed grade white garlic from the growers at Jinxiang was CNY6-6.2 per kilo (USD0.93-0.96/kg), coldstore garlic CNY4.36-4.66/kg.

Jul 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With New York gone, London struggled to get going yesterday. The firm pound was ignored altogether, with Sep 21 opening at GBP +8 and trading in a GBP 1612/1618 range until the afternoon. In the afternoon, the market ran slightly firmer and Sep 21 ended the day at GBP +19 at GBP 1627. Arrivals in Ivory Coast as of 04/07 stand at 2.093 mt vs. 1.989 mt in 19/20 (+5.2%). Pre-sales (priced in as well as open contracts) for 21/22 in Côte d'Ivoire are expected to be around 1.02 mt. This is about the same level as last year, but far behind 18/19 and 19/20. Ghana is around 370k mt and thus in part significantly below previous years.

Jul 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

While the market stayed at the upper end of the current range (GBP 1640) for much of last week, hedging pressure from the origin led to the corresponding correction on Friday. The Sep 21 traded down to lows of GBP 1603, back into interesting territory for the industry. Closing price Sep 21 GBP -9 at GBP 1608. The arbitrage, for the nearer dates, approached a good GBP 30 last week alone, suggesting that further industry orders lie in the direction of GBP 1600. Commitment of Traders as of 29.06 show a further significant reduction of the net long position by 13,634 lots to "only" 14,109 lots long. Managed Money increased its speculative short position by 9,198 lost to now 23,160 lots short.

Jul 02 - Market Briefing: Spices and Exotics (IHSmarkit)

- Upward pricing pressure in cloves market.
- Vanilla demand recovery.
- Vinacas calls on farmers to reduce pepper planted area.

Production

- Global cloves production looks to be short this year, particularly in view an estimated 50% decline from normal levels in Indonesia’s crop after months of heavy rains.
- Madagascar’s next crop should start from September and run through to November and is projected to be a good one of possibly 12,000 tonnes.
- Papua New Guinea’s vanilla crop might exceed 300 tonnes in 2021. Uganda’s vanilla output is expected to exceed 100 tonnes in 2021 due to government support after suffering several years with record-low prices. Comoros’ production is expected to range from 35-50 tonnes.
- US and Mexican chilli production is progressing well although growers are facing rising production costs: transport, wages and inflationary trends which might force them to push up prices.
- The Peruvian ginger harvest has just started and exporters have sold out the 2020-21 crop. The crop might rise by 30% year-on-year due to acreage expansion, after prices started to soar between November 2020-February 2021 as a result of a supply shortage.
- Vietnam’s 2021 pepper crop is expected to fall by 18% year-on-year to 200,000 tonnes.
- The Vietnamese Pepper Association (Vinacas) has recommended halting the pepper production expansion led by farmers in central origins due to rising prices in Q1. The association believes that farmers should reduce the planted area by 20,000 ha to 120,000 ha to find a balance between demand and supply.

Demand

- Cloves are generating strong global demand, traders report.
- In addition, demand for industrial-grade vanilla is recovering after Covid-19 starts to be controlled, cutting carry-over stocks. The demand for Papua New Guinea’s black and gourmet vanilla is said to be growing strongly.
- Indian turmeric is attracting decent levels of demand, as shown in export data (see Trade below).
- Peruvian ginger is also selling well internationally (see Trade below).

Trade

- Shortages of sea freight containers and rising freight costs
continue to make trading extremely difficult, hampering the flow of material.
- Vanilla producer Papua New Guinea is facing logistical challenges due to scarcity of sea and air freight services, favouring smuggling across the border shared with Indonesia.
- India’s turmeric exports in the first two months of this year reached 24,790 tonnes, worth USD29.4 million, 10% more year-on-year in volume but 16.7% less in value. The main importers were Bangladesh and the UAE, taking 23.5% and 9.2% of the total volume.
- Peruvian ginger exports rose by 12% year-on-year in volume between January-May 2021 to 12,800 tonnes and by 26% in value to USD30.4 mln, after reaching record international sales of 51,120 tonnes, worth USD107.1 mln, in 2020.

Price

- International cloves prices look set for substantial increases over the coming months on strong demand and diminished supply. Prices are already very firm and underlying upward pressure is also coming from the massive hikes in freight rates.
- Indonesian cloves are currently being offered at around USD9,250/tonne cfr Singapore, which is substantially higher than levels indicated at the start of this year.
- The Indian spot fob turmeric price reached INR7,499 per quintal (USD103/quintal) at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, South Central) on 25 June, 2% less than on 26 May. Deliveries in June 2021 closed at INR7,420/quintal on 18 June, 9% less than on 19 May.
- The average export fob price of Peruvian ginger fell by 8% month-on-month and by 19% y-o-y to USD1,523/tonne fob this May.

Jul 02 - Market Briefing: Cocoa (IHSmarkit)

- Colombia’s cocoa output in Q1 reached 20,836 tonnes, up 47% y/y
- Peruvian cocoa paste exports in May totaled USD939,545 fob in value, 210,253 kilos in volume
- Cocoa butter prices in June fell by 3.9 cents to 263 cents per pound

Production

- Colombia’s cocoa output in Q1 (January-March) totaled 20,836 tonnes, a 47% y/y increase and the highest figure in the history of the country’s production. This was not only above last year’s volumes, which had only reached 14,174 tonnes by Q1, but is also higher than the estimated 14,550 tonnes, according to National Federation of Cocoa growers, Fedecacao.
- Cumulatively, Ghana’s graded and sealed (G&S) cocoa arrivals reached 960,892 tonnes by June 10. This is up from 752,639 tonnes (+27.7% y/y) from the previous season, Cocobod data showed.

Demand

Ghana is said to be struggling to hit its cocoa export targets for the 2021/2022 season, with sales at the end of last week totaling around 350,000 tonnes-worth of contracts, two sources at the cocoa regulator said. Last week's sales of Ghanaian cocoa contracts included negative differentials between of GBP100-130 per tonne. Conversely, Ivory Coast claims to be on to meet its September sales targets, with the world’s largest producer allegedly selling 1.18 million tonnes-worth of cocoa contracts for the 2021/2022 season.

Trade

Peruvian cocoa paste exports in May totaled USD939,545 fob in value and 210,253 kilos in volume; up from April’s USD778,303 and 189,699 kg, but not as high as May 2020’s USD1.5 mln and 316,993 kg. In year-to-date figures, volumes totaled 732,047 kg at a value of USD3.2 mln fob, compared to USD6.8 mln during the same period in 2020 and 1.3 mln kg. Cocoa bean exports in April totaled USD6.6 mln fob in value and 2.4 kg in volume, down from USD9.5 mln and 3.4 mln kg in March, though up from April 2020’s USD4.7 mln and 1.7 mln kg. Year-to-date values for cocoa bean exports topped USD34.7 mln fob and 12.8 mln kg, compared to the same period in 2020, where USD25.1 mln and 8.8 mln kg were dispatched.

Price

Cocoa butter prices in June fell by 3.9 cents to 263 cents per pound from last month’s average of 267 cents per pound, according to IHS Markit. This time last year butter prices were at around 277 cents per pound, with current prices likely to drop further. Powder prices again remained stable at 95 cents per pound and the combined cocoa powder and butter ratio was little changed in June at 3.29, up slightly from 3.26 last month. The grind margin made another move higher to 30.3, which indicates rising demand for cocoa products.

Jul 02 - Market Briefing: Sugar (IHSmarkit)

- Brazil's Centre/South sugar production in 2021/22 season cut to 34.1 million tonnes
- Maharashtra mills record almost 40-50% lapse in month-to-month sugar sales quota
- EU sugar consumption estimate for EU-27 in 2020/21 at 14.8 million tonnes

Production

Czarnikow reduced its estimate of sugar production in Brazil's Centre/South in the current 2021/22 season to 34.1 million tonnes, from an April projection of 35.6 million and compared with a record 38.5 million last year, as persistent dry weather hurt cane development. It now expects the cane crush to fall to 535 million tonnes this season, the smallest amount since 2012/13, from a previous estimate for 558 million tonnes and an unprecedented 605 million tonnes processed in 2020/21.

Demand

- Millers of Maharashtra have recorded an almost 40-50% lapse in month-to-month sugar sales quota, which would see the state starting the next season with around 6.0 million tonnes of unsold stock. Mills have been struggling to fulfil their monthly sales quota since the start of the 2020/21 sugar season and have taken to selling sugar below the minimum selling price (MSP) of INR31 per kg.
- The European Commission left its sugar consumption estimate for EU-27 in 2020/21 at 14.8 million tonnes, but now expects ending stocks to fall to 1.125 million tonnes at the end of the 2020/21 season, from 2.160 million last year. EU imports were also cut by 150,000 tonnes to 2.150 million.

Trade

The EU awarded 4,079 tonnes of sugar import licences under its CXL and Balkan TRQs for June 2021, down from 8,533 in May and compared with 8,120 tonnes in the same month last year. Some 800 tonnes were awarded under the “erga omnes” quota, 155 tonnes under the special quota for India and 3,124 tonnes were awarded under the Balkan quotas of which all for Serbia. The EU also awarded 20,732 tonnes of sugar import licences to countries pursuant the EPA/EBA agreements in the week to 23 June, up from 1,350 tonnes in the previous week. The top receivers so far were Mauritius (125,025 tonnes), and Fiji (89,998 tonnes).

Price

Brazil’s frost has been impacting prices this week, with raw sugar futures in New York rising to a four-month high of 18.49 cents in the course of Thursday’s (July 1) session. However, the benchmark contract for October delivery finally settled at 17.94 cents per pound. Several agricultural areas of Brazil were hit on Thursday by a third day of frost, which impacted corn, coffee and sugarcane, as well as products for local markets such as beans, potatoes and tomatoes, according to consultancy Rural Clima.

Jul 02 - Market Briefing: Coffee (IHSmarkit)

- Honduran coffee exports in June up 28.4% y/y
- Costa Rican coffee exports totaled 164,426 60-kg bags, up 13.9% y/y
- Arabica coffee futures closed up more than 3% on Brazilian frost

Production

Rural Clima outlined that Brazilian frosts on Thursday (July 1) affected the west and north of the state of São Paulo, the triangle of Minas Gerais and some southern areas of Minas Gerais as well as the southwest of Goiás. Minas Gerais is Brazil's top coffee producing state that accounts for around 40% of total arabica output. In addition, the polar mass over central Brazil may cause new frosts on Friday. Brazil is already harvesting a smaller-than-normal crop due to dryness this year and frost damage would main the potential of next year’s crop.

Demand

Nespresso, the premium coffee division controlled by Nestle SA, has not increased prices for its capsules yet despite a sharp increase in benchmark prices for arabica beans, opting to wait and see if the upward trend is sustainable over time. The company has so far absorbed price increases instead of passing on the higher costs to consumers, until there is more clarity about the market direction. Direct sales to consumers increased 20% during the pandemic period, forcing the company to adjust to higher online sales and logistics demand. Though its boutique coffee stores are all open again, sales to offices are slow and volumes on the selling channel are not expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels until at least 2022.

Trade

- Honduran coffee exports in June 2021 amounted to 827,995 60-kg bags, up 28.4% from 644,726 bags in the same month last year, preliminary figures from the National Coffee Institute (IHCAFE) showed. This brought total exports in the first nine months of the current 2020/21 (October/September) season to 4,604,473 bags, up 5.1% from the same period last year.
- Costa Rican coffee exports in June 2021 totaled 164,426 60-kg bags, up 13.9% from the same month last year, data from the National Coffee Institute (ICAFE) showed. This brought total shipments in the first nine months of the current 2020/21 (October/September) season to 862,068 bags, up 2.4% from last year.

Price

Arabica coffee futures on ICE closed up more than 3% (June 28) on forecasts for frosts this week in Brazil. Benchmark September arabica contract settled up 4.90 cents at 162.70 cents per pound, in dealings between 157.50 and 163.70 cents. December was up 4.80 cents at 165.45 cents per pound and the rest of the board gained 4.60-5.00 cents. Trading volume rose to 40,611 lots from 32,738 in the previous session.

Jul 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

If the market / Sep 21 still dared to look above GBP 1640 (high GBP 1642) at lunchtime, this was only short-term. This led to slight hedging pressure from the origin, the Sep 21 corrected and ended the day with GBP -17 at GBP 1617. One may call it a yo-yo, the other an accordion, but one thing remains certain - the market is always right (we'll throw something into the piggy bank) and the range continues to hold. According to unofficial news, Côte d'Ivoire has now marketed over 1 million mt of 21/22 crop. If this is even close to the truth and the contracts are not fixed (as suspected), a breakout is likely to be further capped by successive hedging pressure. NY remains closed on Monday.

Jul 01 - Peruvian ginger exports increased at lower prices (IHSmarkit)

- 12% increase in exports.
- Gradual fall in export prices since April.

Peruvian ginger exports rose by 12% year-on-year in volume to 12,800 tonnes and by 26% in value to USD30.4 mln in January-May 2021, after reaching record international sales of 51,120 tonnes, worth USD107.1 mln, in 2020.

The US and the EU were the main importers, accounting for 54% and 25%, respectively. The Netherlands was the main European purchaser, accounting for 16% of the total exported volume.

The average export fob price fell by 8% month-on-month and by 19% less y-o-y to USD 1,523/tonne fob in May.

The Peruvian harvest has just started and exporters have sold out the 2020-21 crop. Peruvian trading sources revealed that the crop may rise by 30% year-on-year thanks to acreage expansion, after prices started to soar between November 2020-February 2021 due to a supply shortage.

Jul 01 - Global cloves market on the brink of major upward pricing pressure (IHSmarkit)

- Freight issues compound the difficulties.
- Indonesian crop severely reduced.
- Demand is very strong.

International cloves prices look set for substantial increases over the coming months on strong demand and diminished supply.
- Prices are already very firm and underlying upward pressure is also coming from the massive hikes in freight rates. Some more optimistic market commentators have predicted an improvement in the global freight situation in the final quarter of this year, but one European freight manager this week predicted a continuation of the difficulties for at least another two years.
- One of the knock on effects of the Covid-19 pandemic is that lockdowns have resulted in misplaced vessels and shortages of container ships along with the crews required to operate them.

On the supply side, Indonesia has suffered from very bad weather conditions, consisting mainly of successive months of heavy rains. This has both delayed its 2021 cloves crop and slashed its yields to a potential 50% of normal.
- Hence, Indonesia might end up with a crop of only around 50,000 tonnes. Harvesting runs from May/June in the west to September in the east.
- Comoros is starting its new crop now and this is expected to be normal. Zanzibar’s crop is then due in mid-July and is said to be of regular size.
- Madagascar’s next crop should start from September and run through to November and is projected to be a good one of possibly 12,000 tonnes.
- Brazil’s 2021 crop due in December is forecast to reach about 4,000 tonnes, which is not a particularly high volume for the South American country. Output will also depend on the price: if the price is favourable to farmers/collectors then more cloves will be gathered, if the price is too low, less volume will be taken. Based on the current dynamics, the former scenario looks likely.
- Sri Lanka’s next crop will then follow in early 2022. In the meantime, Sri Lanka is thought to be sold out from its 2021 crop, which was pegged in the range of 4,000-5,000 tonnes.

Emmanuel Nee of French trader Touton told IHS Markit he believes the world cloves market could be short by a possible 25,000-40,000 tonnes this year.
“This means that the balance cannot be compensated by any other crop in the world,” Nee remarked.
The expected production from all global origins is about 25,000 tonnes, he noted.
“In the middle of this, the rest of the world is not covered, and when I say the rest of the world I mean mainly India,” Nee explained.

Indonesia and India are the two biggest global consumers of cloves. India has been in a prolonged lockdown which is now showing signs of easing slowly. Touton anticipates a peak in India’s consumption of cloves by the end of the year or early 2022 when it is winter and the festival season start in India.
- Nee suggested that from July 2021 to June 2022 there will be continued hefty shortfall in supply versus demand, or in other words, demand will exceed the supply.
- The current level of global cloves stocks is thought to be about 15,000 tonnes, without Indonesian figures, and this will have run out by the end of January 2022, Nee predicted.

As a result, there will be a battle on to secure material ahead of this.
- Nee observed that the market has already started to increase quite sharply. Indonesian cloves at farmgate level are commanding levels of more than IDR110,000 (USD7.56) per kilo.
“The new season is just starting in Comoros and the market in Comoros has been increasing by 40%. That is only the beginning,” Nee said.
- Nee believes the market will be very volatile. “We still don’t know what will happen by November or December in Indonesia when their own crop is finished,” he added.
- Nee recalled that in 2001 and 2011 Indonesian cloves prices exceeded USD15,000/tonne. This 10-year cycle looks set to be repeated in 2021, although most likely not up to USD20,000/tonne, which was the case in 2001, he explained.

Indian buyers seem perfectly happy securing deals at USD 8,700-8,800/tonne cif currently, Nee added.
- He described current demand as “huge”. “Right now we are receiving demands from everywhere. We’re going from India, Europe, USA, even from Australia,” Nee said.
- Cloves consumption is relatively low in central Europe and the US but parts of eastern Europe, such as Russia, have become quite substantial users of cloves. In contrast, India and the Middle East are much more dependent on cloves as the spice is firmly entrenched in their culture.
India is said to currently have only enough stocks for two months consumption.

Freight issues

Nee warned that the global difficulties are made even worse by the escalating freight rates and shortages of vessels etc.
“Shipping from Indonesia is a nightmare,” he observed. “There are no containers and the freight rates are increased by three, four, five or six times. It is almost impossible to get a container and that will bring some issues. It is going to be even worse over the coming two years. This will make the shipments from Indonesia to anywhere in the world almost impossible.”
- CMA CGN announced on Tuesday that until further notice it is not accepting any bookings for east Africa, west Africa and the Indian ocean.
“It means they are not taking any cargo from Madagascar, Comoros, Zanzibar, Tanzania, Uganda, etc.” Nee explained.
- This leaves MSC and Maersk as the remaining main operators in Madagascar with free rein to hike the freight rates exorbitantly if they want.
“We can manage price increases but if we are mixing price increases with less shipment options then it will start to be a little bit difficult to work,” Nee warned.

Jul 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Forecasts of a good current crop in Ghana of around 1.1 million mt put the market under slight pressure in the morning. As in recent weeks, the Sep 21 found good support towards GBP 1600 (low GBP 1608). A firmer commodity environment also pulled the cocoa market up in the afternoon. The Sep 21 missed the previous day's highs by GBP 4 and ended the day GBP +10 at GBP 1634. At least the range of GBP 27 was reasonable, a sustained move through the long-term moving averages should provide fresh speculative buying interest. However, the "shorts" still hold the reins. New York marked the second inside day this week and ended the day almost unchanged at US$ 2389 / -1.