Softs News

Oct 26 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Although the previous day's upward trend continued almost unchecked, albeit with lower volumes. March 21 searched and found resistance at GBP 1700 and ended the day at GBP 1702 / GBP +8, the highest close after almost 3 weeks. Commitment of Traders show a further rapid reduction of the speculative long position with a reduction of 15,011 lots. Combined, both markets now stand at 57,662 lots net long. Within Managed Money the reduction was relatively evenly distributed, but in London just under 3k of fresh shorts were added. According to Reuters, major international exporters have stopped their current purchases. The reason for this is a dispute with the CCC regarding the "origin differential", which is considered too high. This should at least slow down or only delay the pressure to hedge on the market. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as of 25 October are at 317,000mt vs. 287,000 from 19/20 (+10.4%).

Oct 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Most fundamental market participants remain on a wait-and-see basis with regard to the further brexit negotiations and the elections in Côte d'Ivoire. March 21 broke through the previous week's highs and traded to a high of GBP 1695, but the 200-day moving average (GBP 1693) and the psychological mark of GBP 1700 provided resistance. Closing price March 21 GBP +33 at GBP 1694. The flow of arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire still seems to be problem-free, but the violent protests have not "yet" reached Abidjan or San Pedro where the cocoa is finally shipped / processed.

Oct 23 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 19-23 October 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed a mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable with a marginal increase at an average of USD 4,383 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 4% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,039 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,636 per Mt. The decrease of Indonesian white pepper could be contributed to the ample supply in local market. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with 3% and 2% deficit respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,180 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,626 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 2% and 4% respectively as opposed to the previous week to an average of USD 2,131 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,958 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with 2% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,996 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with significant increase of 8% when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 4,513 per Mt Locally.
- International market also showed a mixed response. India black pepper was reported stable with a marginal increase at an average of USD 4,655 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 4% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,488 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,276 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with 2% and 1% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,725 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,940 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 7% as opposed to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 4,713 per Mt internationally.

Oct 23 - Indian sugar export subsidy decision unlikely before state elections - sources
Indian sugar export subsidies will not be renewed before state elections finish next month, trade and government sources said on Thursday, with New Delhi examining the level of subsidy needed to encourage shipments of surplus sugar. Subsidies are set for one year from Oct. 1. The government has extended the 2019/20 subsidy until December, but in practice exporters will not receive more support as they have already met their 6 million tonne export quota under the scheme.
 
 

Oct 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A revived British pound could not put enough pressure on the market to prevent a firm opening, but it also avoided a too large fortification. Once again, no significant volume was achieved: the Mar 21 took the largest volume of all (~7.4k lots/~16.5k lots), moving in a range of just GBP 27 and closing with a slight gain of GBP +9 at GBP 1661. The hesitancy is generally attributed to the elections in Côte d'Ivoire at the end of next week. Here the government is inviting its opposition to dialogue, while further east in Nigeria the protests against police violence are escalating despite curfew and unfortunately also claimed casualties yesterday.

Oct 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With just 15,000 lots of sales, the lowest volume for a month, it was a slow day in the cocoa business. The weakness of the British pound was almost completely ignored and March 21, at its peak, gave up GBP 25 of its gains from the previous day. Closing March 21 GBP -21 at GBP 1652, the Dec / March spread hit another 16 month low at GBP -9.

Oct 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The strengthening that had already begun on Friday evening continued yesterday. One reason for this may have been the multiple failed attempts to break the August lows (GBP 1619), which ended at 1672 twice in a row (see chart). Despite a relatively firm GBP, the Mar 21 ran yesterday to underground highs of GBP 1677 and closed just above the 100-day average (GBP 1668) at GBP 1673. After a loss of GBP 260, a correction had to come at some point; the question remains as to how long it will last. The markets are not yet technically oversold (although they are about to do so), in addition to the slightly more positive grinding figures, tensions in Côte d'Ivoire and the weak GBP today. And the structure is diverging (Mar/May21 GBP +26). A further fortification would not be surprising, even if the main harvest starts strongly: IVC arrivals last week were 105 tmt, about 35 tmt higher than last year.

Oct 20 - COVID-19, low prices push Peru coffee output down 10%
Coffee output in Peru, the world's fifth largest arabica coffee exporter, has tumbled 10% this year due to low prices and migrant labour shortages caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the head of the country's national coffee federation told Reuters. The drop in Peruvian output could help underpin world prices as it far exceeds market expectations. Broker Marex Spectron said the country's output was likely to fall 2.5% this year in its latest report. 

 
 
Oct 20 - Child labour rising in West Africa cocoa farms despite efforts - report
The use of child labour has risen in cocoa farms in Ghana and Ivory Coast over the past decade despite industry promises to reduce it, academics said on Monday, largely supporting earlier findings that were questioned by both states. The prevalence of children doing hazardous work, including using sharp tools, has also gone up in the world's top two cocoa producers, according to the study funded by the U.S. government.
 
 

Oct 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The slightly better grinding figures from Asia & North America led to a moderately firmer daily performance. The constant back and forth in the Brexit negotiations and a comprehensibly volatile British pound certainly had more influence on the course of the day on Friday. March 21 traded in a GBP 18 range and ended the day at the upper end with GBP +8 at GBP 1641. Commitment of Traders as of 13.10. show a significant reduction of the net long position from 21,329 lots to 72,673 lots net long. Managed Money in LDN liquidated almost 30% of the speculative position with 8,635 lots, in addition to almost 3.5K lots of fresh shorts and this with a decrease of only GBP 40 within the last reporting period. According to Friday's figures, global grinds fell by "only" 2.63% in the 19/20 season. This is also rather at the lower end of expectations.

Oct 19 - Malaysia has inspected, will monitor rubber manufacturers' labour law compliance
Malaysia has inspected and will continue to monitor rubber manufacturing companies after the country's rubber glove production came under U.S. scrutiny for alleged forced labour practices, its Human Resources Ministry said on Saturday. In a statement, the ministry said it had carried out enforcement activities on errant companies, and would continue to monitor and take action against employers failing to adhere to national labour laws and legislation.

Oct 16 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 12-16 October 2020 - IPC

- Market this week showed a mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable with a marginal decrease at an average of USD 4,379 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable with a marginal increase averaging at USD 1,964 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with 2% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,690 per Mt. The decrease of Indonesian white pepper could be contributed to the oversupply in local market. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with 4% and 1% deficit respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,258 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,699 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported stable with a marginal increase to an average of USD 2,097 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,831 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 3,050 per Mt. China white pepper was traded at an average of USD 4,192 per Mt Locally.
- International market was reported with a rather stable outlook as only Indonesia white pepper recorded a decrease. India black pepper was reported stable with a marginal decrease at an average of USD 4,652 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable with a marginal increase at an average of USD 2,402 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with 2% deficit as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,336 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged. China traded its white pepper at an average of USD 4,392 per Mt internationally.
- International market was reported with a decreasing demand from USA and Europe. Muntok white pepper in US Market for CF October/November was reported at USD 4.200 - USD 4,300 per Mt.

Oct 16 - Amid sugar’s relative stability, market already focuses on long-term prospects in Thailand - STONEx
- On Thursday (15), the front-month sugar #11 contract reached a high of 14.50 c/lb on the ICE/NY. Unable to sustain this level, however, the commodity fell and ended the session quoted at 14.18 c/lb, a two-point daily retraction. The move, which seems partly related to liquidation of long positions by spec funds, may have been reinforced by the decline of Brent crude oil quotes on the international market during some of the raw sugar session.
- Another factor that may have contributed to the reversal of the upward trend was the negative readjustment in gasoline A prices made by Petrobras on Thursday, by BRL 0.0726/liter. Even so, the change made by the state-owned company practically canceled the last increase (on October 9), so the impacts on prices for final consumers should be limited.
- Back to the sugar market, it has long been commented that high prices on the international market have, along with the US dollar, boosted quotes in BRL/t in Brazil, thus making exports more attractive and favoring fixation of production for the next crops. Sugar’s rally, in turn, may also have an effect on other major players of the sector, such as Thailand.
- According to an important association in the country, prices paid to sugarcane producers may increase in 2020/21 (Oct-Sept), to between THB 800/t and THB 900/t, which would represent an increase of between 6.7% 20.0% compared to the price paid in 2019/20. This measure can be interpreted as a positive sign for farmers, encouraging cane planting.

Oct 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Grinding figures Q3 20 vs. Q3 19: NCA -4%, Asia -10%. Was it the slightly better grinding figures of the ECA or the now almost familiar pattern (firm in the morning, then weak again) that caused March 21 to climb to yesterday's highs of GBP 1654 within the first 20 minutes. However, this coupled with weak volumes only slowed the continued exit of the longs. March 21 hit new lows again at GBP 1627 and is steadily approaching the August lows (GBP 1619). Some support is likely to come from this. End of March 21 GBP -4 at GBP 1633 The NCA and Asian grinding numbers are relatively close to the expectations mentioned yesterday and at their lower end. Malicious tongues claim to be a little too close to expectations...

Oct 16 - Commodities trader Olam launches sustainable coffee programme 
Global commodities trader Olam pledged to improve conditions for the farmers it buys coffee from and ensure its direct supply chain is not responsible for deforestation as it announced its first public sustainability targets in coffee on Thursday. Commodity traders have for years used coffee certified by third parties to meet consumer demand for ethical and sustainable sourcing, but the system has to date had limited success.

 
Oct 16 -
North America cocoa grind down 4.02% from year earlier - NCA

North American cocoa grindings fell in the third quarter of 2020 to 118,260 tonnes, down 4.02% from the same period a year earlier, according to data from the National Confectioners Association (NCA) released on Thursday. The data did show an improvement from the previous quarter when the grind volume reached only 110,776 tonnes, down more than 10% from a year earlier.

 
Oct 16 - Brazilian coffee farmers' 2020 crop sales above five-year average, consultancy says
Brazilian coffee farmers sold 64% of the 2020 crop by Oct. 13, more than at this time last year and exceeding the five-year average for the period, consultancy Safras & Mercado said on Thursday. Safras said that on average for the last five years farmers would have sold 53% of the crop by mid-October.

Oct 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Grinding figures Q3 20 vs. Q3 19: ECA -4.47%, Germany -9.66%. Due to a weak British pound, the market experienced a brief marginal rebound in the morning (High GBP 1652). Thereafter, March 21 continued its downward trend, with a low of GBP 1631, gradually approaching the August lows (GBP 1619). The closing GBP -8 at GBP 1637 and the Dec / March spread was also trading at a new low of GBP -5. Grinding numbers are at the lower end of expectations. Please take into account that in 2020 only 21 participants reported in Europe, in 2019 it was 23, and that Q3 2019 was a very strong year in terms of tonnage. Today after trading the North American (expected -5%) and tomorrow morning the Asian (expected -11%) figures will be published.

Oct 15 - Colombia's 2020 coffee harvest to hit record value $2.33 billion -finance minister
Colombia's coffee harvest is expected to reach a record value of 9 trillion pesos ($2.33 billion) in 2020, Finance Minister Alberto Carrasquilla said on Wednesday. 
The projected value represents a 23.3% increase on the year before, when the harvest generated 7.3 trillion pesos.

 Oct 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Under the headline of the rather worse than expected grinding figures from Malaysia (-16% YoY, but "only" -1.2% vs. Q2 20) the funds continued their liquidation of the longs. March 21 traded on 8 week lows of GBP 1640 and broke through support at GBP 1650. New York followed and broke through psychological support at $2400. In the last hour of yesterday's day, a completely inexplicable "rocket" occurred, which temporarily pushed the market up by GBP 40 / $ 65. This was short-lived, with March 21 LDN ending the day at GBP -17 at GBP 1645, March 21NY $-54 at $2377. Dec/March 21 continued to lose ground, trading down to a discount of GBP -3. The market has now lost GBP 260 over the last few weeks, during which time the spot spread has also turned around GBP 75. The industry continued to actively hedge the market yesterday.

Oct 14 - Container shortage delays shipments of Brazil's record coffee crop
Coffee traders are struggling to ship cargos out of Brazilian ports because of a shortage of available containers or space in vessels to hold them, according to traders and analysts. Brazil's economy is suffering due to the coronavirus pandemic, causing a 40% slide in its currency, the real.

Oct 14 - Avocado boom comes at a price in Portugal's parched Algarve
Like many Britons in Portugal, Richard Alan moved to the sun-drenched southern Algarve region to retire. He bought a farm, married the love of his life and grew a vegetable garden. Then he started running out of water. He, and some environmentalists, blame an avocado production boom in recent years for mopping up already scarce water as a drought linked to climate change blights the area. 

Oct 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

As expected, it was a laborious start to the week in cocoa. With the grinding figures visible on the horizon, the fundamental players continued to show themselves in wait-and-see mode. Despite everything, March 21 recorded new lows at GBP 1659 and closed at GBP -13 / GBP 1662 only GBP 3 above this. While the reduction of the speculative position (15k lots) was at the upper end of expectations, the specs showed new sales in the market, albeit reduced. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire as at 11.10 are 106,000mt vs. 132,000mt from the previous year. However, these are not very meaningful as the new harvest has only just begun.

Oct 13 - China sets 2021 sugar import quota at 1.945 mln tonnes 
China set the 2021 sugar import quota at 1.945 mln tonnes, unchanged from the previous year, the commerce ministry said on Monday. Among the total import quota for the commodity, 70% would be allocated to state-owned firms, the Ministry of Commerce said in a notice published on its website.

Oct 13 - Ivory Coast farmers welcome heavy rains, fret about political tensions 
Above-average rainfall last week in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa regions brightened the outlook for the main crop harvest, farmers said on Monday, even as some voiced concerns about bean quality and the impact of electoral tensions. Farmers in Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, said harvesting for the October to March main crop had picked up significantly thanks to good soil moisture, and that they expected output to exceed last season's haul.

Oct 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The absence of almost all fundamental market participants made the remaining longs visibly nervous. Continued selling pressure led to new lows of GBP 1665, the current trend's lowest prices. Closing price March 21 GBP -24 at GBP 1675, the Dec / March spread remained weak with a premium of GBP +10. Commitment of Traders as of 06.10 show the expected reduction of almost 12k lots in the net long position, which now stands at 94,002 lots. Managed Money liquidated almost 15k lots and now stands at 56,268 lots. Next support should start around GBP 1620 (Lows from August). The industry looks curiously at the European and North American grinding figures, published on 15 Oct20.

Oct 12 - Brazil sugar output, ethanol exports soar; dryness hits cane yields - industry group
Sugar production and ethanol exports increased sharply in Brazil in September as mills enter the final weeks of the current season, but the extremely dry weather started to hit cane agricultural yields, industry group Unica said on Friday. Brazil's center-south sugar output reached 2.86 million tonnes in the second half of September, 59% more than in the same period a year earlier, as mills sharply favor the sweetener in their production strategies at the expense of ethanol.

Oct 09 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 5-9 October 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed a mixed response as only Indonesia was reported with an increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week to an average of USD 4,381 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,963 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,758 per Mt for white pepper. The increase of Indonesian pepper could be contributed to the strengthening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (IDR 14,770 @ USD 1), an appreciation by 1% recorded. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with 2% and 1% deficit respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,349 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,753 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported stable with a marginal increase to an average of USD 2,096 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,830 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with 2% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 3,094 per Mt.
- International market also showed a mixed response as only Indonesia was reported with an increase. India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week to an average of USD 4,654 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,401 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,411 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged.

Oct 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After a good 9 days of losses and a correction of around GBP 170, it was the first trading day with no new lows. The market consolidated around GBP 1700 in a GBP 22 range and ended the day with GBP +4 at GBP 1699 almost unchanged. A firm British pound provided some resistance to the upside, at least for some of yesterday's trading. The Dec / March spread lost another GBP 2 and ended the day at GBP +14/12, and seems to be feeling quite comfortable there at the moment. This weekend the meeting announced by Bedie will take place in Abidjan and it is hoped to gather about 50.000 supporters. Short sidefactor after a boring day in cocoa: The average age in Ivory Coast is around 19 years. The presidential candidates are as follows: Bedie leads with 86 years, Ouattara follows with 78 and just behind him Gbagbo with 75...

Oct 09 - Global 2020-21 sugar supply deficit seen growing to 2.2 mln T - StoneX 
Smaller sugar production in Thailand, Russia and the European Union, coupled with an expected demand recovery, will result in a deficit of 2.2 million tonnes of sugar in the 2020-21 season, broker and analyst StoneX said on Thursday. The broker revised upwards its deficit view from a previous estimate of 1.3 million tonnes in August.

 
 
Oct 09 - Suedzucker's Q2 earnings surge two-fold on sugar, biofuels strength 
Suedzucker, Europe's largest sugar refiner, on Thursday posted a 142% surge in second-quarter earnings and reaffirmed its estimate of a stronger annual profit with its sugar and biofuels sectors performing well. Suedzucker posted an increase in group operating profit to 68 million euros ($80 million) in the second quarter of 2020/2021 fiscal year ended August 2020, from 28 million euros in the previous quarter.
 
 

Oct 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Despite new lows of GBP 1674 / March 21, the Specs / Algos allowed themselves at least a short break from the liquidations that had been going on for days. March 21 recorded the first positive close in 9 days with GBP +10 / close GBP 1695. The next few days could be characterised by further speculative sales, the negative trend should be stopped, at least in part, by price hedging by the industry, as we see the price coverage of the industry "only" at around 7 months at the end of September. The GEPEX reported an increase of +1.4% in September in the Ivory Coast. On a quarterly basis, however, unsurprisingly, a decline of 3%.

Oct 08 - France cuts wine production forecast after champagne harvest drop 
France's farm ministry on Tuesday reduced its forecast of 2020 wine production to below the average of recent years as it factored in smaller harvest volumes in the Champagne region. Champagne producers in August agreed to collect a smaller volume of grapes this year to help counter the impact of the coronavirus crisis that has slashed sales of the sparkling wine.    
 
 

Oct 08 - Suedzucker's Q2 earnings surge two-fold on sugar, biofuels strength 
Suedzucker, Europe's largest sugar refiner, on Thursday posted a 142% surge in second-quarter earnings and reaffirmed its estimate of a stronger annual profit with its sugar and biofuels sectors performing well. Suedzucker posted an increase in group operating profit to 68 million euros ($80 million) in the second quarter of 2020/2021 fiscal year ended August 2020, from 28 million euros in the previous quarter. 

 Oct 08 - Ivory Coast police rescue 11 children working on cocoa farms 
Police on Wednesday rescued 11 children and two teenagers working on cocoa plantations in southwestern Ivory Coast and arrested three farmers on suspicion of people trafficking, the police commissioner said. Child labour increased in the world's top cocoa producer during the coronavirus lockdown, according to a report in June by the Swiss-based International Cocoa Initiative (ICI).

Oct 08 - Costa Rican coffee exports grew nearly 7% in 2019/2020 season 
Costa Rican coffee exports topped 1.134 million bags in the harvesting season that ended last month, up 6.7% compared to the previous cycle, data from national coffee institute ICAFE showed on Wednesday. Coffee exports in September, the last month of the 2019/2020 season, more than doubled from the same month last year to reach 56,448 60-km bags.

Oct 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Also yesterday the specs were still lively in "liquidation mode". March 21 saw new lows of GBP 1675. Cautious industrial activity then provided some support and March ended the day with GBP -13 at GBP 1685. The focus yesterday was on Dec / March 21 which converged to GBP +13, just over 2 weeks ago it was trading at GBP +75. The air of the longs is getting thinner and thinner on the way down, this coupled with a weak spot spread makes rolling unattractive as well. The first polls regarding the number of grindings reached us yesterday, with a range of -4% and -8%. The presidential candidate Soro yesterday called on all citizens to demonstrate on Oct 10 against a third mandate of Ouattara.

Oct 07 - Experts see 2021 Brazil coffee crop dented by this year's drought 
Top coffee producer Brazil will have a below-average coffee crop in 2021 due to the prolonged drought in the country in recent months, agronomists specializing in coffee plantations said on Tuesday. In a virtual discussion organized by Cooxupe, the world's largest coffee co-op and Brazil's number 1 coffee exporter, the experts said that even if rains pick up in coming weeks and during the summer, trees will struggle to recover. 

Oct 06 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The negative trend in the cocoa market continued yesterday, albeit at a slow pace. At GBP 1683 / March 21 new 6 week lows were reached and with the closing price of GBP 1698 / GBP -13 the 7th consecutive day with a weaker end of day. Yesterday was also the first closing price below GBP 1700 since the end of August. After more than 2 months of early hibernation, the industry showed up in the market with price hedges. Arrivals in Côte d'Ivoire at the end of September were 2.074 mn vs. 2.179 mn from the previous year / -4.8%. Farmers in the Ivory Coast report good rainfall and are optimistic about a good harvest of good quality.

Oct 06 - EU sugar production seen falling in 2020/21 season 
Sugar production in the European Union is forecast to decline slightly in 2020/21 (October/September) but exports could edge higher after slumping to the lowest level in almost a decade in the prior season, the European Commission forecast on Monday. The Commission, in a report on the short-term outlook for agricultural markets, forecast that sugar production would fall to 15.9 million tonnes, down from the prior season's 16.2 million with yields seen below average.

Oct 06 - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers say rains have boosted main crop 
Mainly above-average rains interspersed with sun last week in most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa regions should improve the chances of a larger, higher-quality October-to-March main crop, farmers said on Monday. Farmers said the sunny conditions were helping dry beans, and there were sufficient buyers on the ground in the wake of the new farmgate price of 1,000 CFA francs ($1.80) per kg.
 

Oct 05 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

On Friday, too, the ongoing selling pressure continued, triggered by increased profit-taking by the longs. March 21 lost close to GBP 50 at times and traded at lows of GBP 1689. In the afternoon, the industry showed up in the market with occasional price hedges. Closing price March 21 GBP -27 at GBP 1711. Technically, the uptrend, which has lasted since the end of August, has now been broken. Commitment of Traders as of 29.09 showed only a marginal increase of the net long position from 2,917 lots to 105,980 lots net long. However, the larger correction of a good GBP 100 came after the reporting deadline last Tuesday and should be reflected in the next figures

Oct 05 - Funds' bullish bet in raw sugar climbs to nearly 160,000 contracts 
Hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bet on ICE raw sugar futures in the week to Sept. 29 to nearly 160,000 contracts, the highest speculators' net long position in the sweetener since 2016, data released on Friday showed. The funds added 14,390 contracts to their net long bet that now totals 158,938 contracts, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said, in a week when sugar deliveries made by commercial players against the expiration of the October contract in the exchange reached a record.  

 
 Oct 05 -
Colombian coffee producers must prepare for La Niña weather pattern 

Colombian coffee producers must prepare for the arrival of the La Niña weather pattern which, although forecast to be light, could bring above average rainfall, negatively impacting crops and exacerbating coffee rust, the national federation of coffee growers said on Friday. The weather event, which is set to run until February, will bring more humidity, less sunshine, a fall in average temperatures and cause a drop in coffee producers' productivity.
 
 

Oct 02 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 28 Sep-2 Oct 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed a mixed response as only India recorded a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with 2% deficit as compared to the previous week to an average of USD 4,419 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported stable with a marginal decrease to an average of USD 1,945 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,722 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper were also reported stable with a marginal decrease averaging at USD 2,409 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,788 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as opposed to the previous week to an average of USD 2,095 per Mt whilst Viet Nam white pepper was reported steady at an average of USD 2,829 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper was also reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 3,157 per Mt.
- International market also showed a mixed response as only India recorded a decrease. India black pepper was reported with the same 2% deficit as compared to the previous week to an average of USD 4,691 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported stable with a marginal decrease to an average of USD 2,379 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,369 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 2%, 2% and 1% respectively when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,605 Per Mt, USD 2,686 per Mt, and USD 4,125 per Mt respectively.

Oct 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

As on the previous day, the The end of the liquidation of managed money/spec longs and a partly firm British pound for another step towards the long-awaited correction (at least by the industry). March 21 temporarily lost GBP 54, found support at GBP 1714 around the 50 day moving average March 21, as well as the 100 day moving averages of the 2nd Month Continuation Chart. Closing at GBP 1738 / GBP -24, with a moderate correction from the lows, the industry cautiously tested the still highly volatile terrain after nearly two months of absence. Ivory Coast announced yesterday, as expected, the new farmer price of CFA 1,000 for the 20/21 campaign / +21%.

Oct 02 - Huge ICE sugar delivery sparks worry over China demand, India crop delays 
The staggering size of the most recent raw sugar delivery by market players holding futures contracts in New York, a record 2.62 million tonnes, has traders concerned that demand is fading in important markets like China. Traders take monthly delivery on expiring futures contracts they hold in commodities like coffee or sugar. When they deliver to the exchange, in this case ICE, it often means there was not enough demand from end-users like candy makers or soda producers.     
 

Oct 02 - Ivory Coast raises 2020/21 cocoa farmgate price by 21% 
Ivory Coast has raised the fixed farmgate price paid to cocoa farmers more than 21% to 1,000 CFA Francs ($1.80) per kg for the main crop of the 2020/2021 season starting Thursday, President Alassane Ouattara said. The decision by the world's top cocoa producer is in line with a price rise announced by neighbouring Ghana on Sept 24. The two countries account for over 60% of global cocoa bean output. 

  Oct 02 - Brazil registers big increase in Sept coffee, sugar exports 
Brazil posted a significant increase in sugar exports in September as well as a strong increase in green coffee shipments, government trade body Secex said on Thursday. According to Secex, Brazil exported 3.62 million tonnes of sugar in September, up significantly from the 1.71 million tonnes from the same period a year before. Green coffee exports rose to 221,000 tonnes from 187,300 tonnes.

 
Oct 02 - German sugar output estimate raised, still down year on year 
Germany's refined sugar production from beets in the new 2020/21 season is forecast to fall to about 4.17 million tonnes from 4.23 million tonnes last season, Germany's sugar industry association WVZ said on Thursday in its second harvest forecast. This was slightly up from 4.12 million tonnes in the association’s first forecast in early September.

 
Oct 02 - Honduras coffee exports fall in 2019/2020, 14% uptick seen next cycle 
Honduran coffee exports fell 19% in the 2019/2020 harvesting season, national coffee institute IHCAFE said on Thursday, as declining output triggered by low market prices plus adverse summer weather conditions crimped shipments. Exports from Honduras, Central America's top coffee producer, totaled 5.504 million 60-kg bags during the 12-month season that ended last month, according to IHCAFE. That compared to the 6.814 million bags shipped in the previous 2018/2019 season.
 

Oct 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After a firmer opening, new speculative buying soon manifested itself, strengthening the GBP +20 notch. The opening in NY then put pressure on both markets, with a firm British pound added to the pressure. The Mar 21 contract lost GBP -28, closed at GBP 1762 and ended Q3 8.8% stronger than Q3. The structure flattened further: the Dec20/Mar21 spread continued to narrow to +33 (GBP 67 a week ago). The devaluation of the USD vs GBP and the weak NY caused arbitrage to converge around GBP -20. Today's Journée Mondiale du Cacao et Chocolate in Côte d'Ivoire will officially announce the new farmer price - an important day at least in the light of the election campaign.

Oct 01 - ICE October raw sugar delivery seen at record 2.62 mln tns - traders 
Raw sugar deliveries against the expiration of the October contract on ICE were seen at 51,599 lots, or around 2.62 million tonnes, the largest amount ever for any contract in the exchange, according to traders. Chinese commodities trader COFCO International and Brazil's Raizen, a joint venture between Cosan SA and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, were seen as the largest deliverers, while Asian trader Wilmar International was seen as the largest receiver of the sugar.
 
 

Sep 30 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

A firm British pound in the morning, as well as smaller liquidations of the "newer" longs, led to a small sign of life in the cocoa market. March 21 traded at a 3-week low of GBP 1761 and broke out of the range seen latest , at least temporarily. The closing price of GBP -12 at GBP 1790 was rather sobering. The Dec 20 / March 21 spread traded with GBP +41 to new 10-day lows. New York ended the day almost unchanged at $ -3 at $ 2562. Here the focus should be on $ 2520 / March 21, where we see clear technical support. A European "think tank" now recommended postponing the election in Côte d'Ivoire.

Sep 30 - Ghana cocoa regulator signs $1.3 bln finance deal for 2020/21 season 
Ghana's cocoa board (Cocobod) signed on Tuesday a $1.3 billion pre-export finance deal for the 2020/21 cocoa season through a syndicated loan, following reports earlier this year that its usual lenders had declined to underwrite the risk. A coalition of 28 local and international banks and financial institutions, including ABN Amro, Standard Chartered and Bank of China, were party to the loan, which is repayable in seven months, said Cocobod CEO Joseph Boahen Aidoo at the signing ceremony. 

Sep 29 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

There were two small highlights yesterday. The strong British Pound made for a weaker close of the day, we won't mention the lack of volume, close to the daily lows of Friday and yesterday (GBP 1798) at GBP 1802 / GBP -11. The other highlight was a larger AA of 8,028 lots on GPB 1643 / Dec 20, but here we suspect financing rather than a real physical trade. Ivory Coast arrivals as per 27.09. are 2.074 mt vs. 2.185 mt. Perhaps the start of the main crop, as well as the Q3 grinding figures in 2 weeks time will bring new impulses to the markets. We hope so...

Sep 29 - Ivory Coast rains boost cocoa main crop, farmers say 
Above average rain in Ivory Coast’s cocoa growing regions could boost the first three months of the October-to-March main crop, though there have been some limited signs of black pod disease, farmers said on Monday. Harvesting picked up last week and farmers were stockpiling beans of good size and quality in the bush in anticipation of higher farmgate prices for the coming season, they said.

 Sep 29 - Ukraine has produced 70,200 T of white sugar from beet in 2020/21 
Ukraine sugar refineries had produced 70,200 tonnes of white sugar from 548,900 tonnes of sugar beet harvested in 2020 as of Sept. 28, the Ukrtsukor national sugar union said on Monday. The union has said output of white sugar was likely to fall by 15% in 2020 to around 1.2 million tonnes.
 
 

Sep 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The average daily volume last week of about 15k lots in LDN and about 25k lots in New York speaks volumes about the lack of liquidity in the cocoa market. The well-known sideways movement continued on Friday, despite a bandwidth of GBP 42 / March 21. March 21 ended the day at GBP -16 at GBP 1813. March 21 in New York ended the day at $ -30 at $ 2545, at the lower end of last week's range, but here too there is a lack of current momentum. Commitment of Traders as of 22.09. show a small reduction of the net long position from 5,083 lots to now 91,803 lots. Managed Money in London gained over 7,000 lots, split 50/50 between fresh longs and liquidated shorts.

Sep 28 - Brazil looks to grab specialty coffee market share as output grows 
Demand for high-quality coffee is improving strongly after the decline seen in the first months of the coronavirus pandemic, which could allow Brazilian farmers to expand their sales in this high-end market, according to a specialty coffee expert. Vanusia Nogueira, head of Brazil's Specialty Coffee Association (BSCA), estimated that Brazilian sales of specialty coffee would increase by 5% in 2020 as a result of a production boost in the current season and logistics problems for some of its competitors.

 
 Sep 28 -
Pandemic cuts sugar consumption by 2.5 mln T, recovery seen 

The coronavirus pandemic is seen cutting global sugar consumption by 2.5 million tonnes in the 2019-20 season (Oct-Sept), helping to sharply reduce an expected supply deficit, but a recovery is seen, analysts S&P Global Platts said on Friday. Pandemic stay-at-home measures reduced sugar use globally. They also led to a fall in ethanol consumption and prices in Brazil that pushed mills there to maximize sugar production, erasing a global deficit that was previously projected at nearly 7 million tonnes, it said.

 
 Sep 28 -
Funds add more than 30,000 contracts to bullish bet in raw sugar 

Hedge funds and money managers sharply increased their bullish bets on raw sugar futures on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to Sept. 22, adding more than 30,000 contracts to boost their long position on the sweetener to 144,548 contracts. According to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released on Friday, speculators chose to reduce their long position in arabica coffee futures, cutting 3,438 contracts for a still long position of 32,094 contracts.

Sep 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With almost all fundamental market participants still absent, our cocoa market remains the playball of the specs / funds and their "search" for new victims. With persistently low liquidity, March 20 traded in a GBP 35 range, ending the day at GBP +18 at GBP 1829, continuing its laborious sideways movement. The Ghana Cocoa Board announced an increase in the farmer price from Cedi 8240 (US$ 1420) to Cedi 10560 (US$ 1827) pmt / +28%. We wish you a nice weekend.

Sep 25 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 21-25 September 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed a mixed response as only Indonesia white pepper recorded a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week to an average of USD 4,505 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable with a marginal increase at an average of USD 1,953 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported with 2% deficit when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,738 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable with a marginal decrease averaging at USD 2,418 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,802 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with an increase of 3% as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,075 per Mt whilst Viet Nam white pepper was reported steady at an average of USD 2,830 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 3,140 per Mt while China white pepper was reported stable with a marginal increase averaging at USD 4,100 per Mt.

- International market also showed a mixed response as only Indonesia white pepper recorded a decrease. India black pepper was reported with the same 2% increase as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,776 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable with a marginal increase at an average of USD 2,389 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported with 2% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 4,388 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white peppers were reported with an increase of 3%, 3% and 2% respectively when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,565 Per Mt, USD 2,646 per Mt, and USD 4,085 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported stable with a marginal increase averaging at USD 4,300 per Mt.

- US market was reported with the local Viet Nam market witnessing an upward trend in pepper exports with the largest purchases coming from China. Muntok white pepper for CF September/October was reported at USD 4.350 per Mt.

 

Sep 25 - Trump, eyeing Farm Country, starts working on ethanol industry's year-old wishlist
President Donald Trump, looking to shore up support in the U.S. Farm Belt during a tight race for re-election, is taking steps to help producers of corn-based ethanol using a list of policy goals that a group of Midwest senators discussed with him a year ago, according to two sources familiar with the matter. On Sept. 12, 2019, Trump met with the senators, who were frustrated by the administration's management of U.S. biofuels policy. They argued that Trump's Environmental Protection Agency had been helping the oil industry at the expense of farmers dependent on ethanol sales, and presented him with a list of ways he could fix the problem, according to five sources familiar with the matter.

Sep 25 - Brazil ethanol sales in September recover to 2019 levels, says industry group
Sales of ethanol by plants in the main center-south region in Brazil reached 1.33 billion liters in the first half of September, similar to the amount sold a year earlier, industry group Unica reported on Thursday, signaling a recovering market. Unica's biweekly production report said exports of ethanol - up 187% early in September - helped offset lower local sales, which remained down from last year due to the coronavirus pandemic. 

Sep 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With volumes again weak, the market found early strength of around GBP +30 and marked a high for the day of GBP 1822 basis Mar21. But that was it. In the afternoon London came under pressure and lost much of the morning gains. The second month Mar21 closed at GBP 1811 (GBP +7) and remains well above the lows of GBP 1790 last week. Further sideways. Dec/Mar21 spread remains undecided at a premium of GBP 56. There is no clear direction, but there is some talk of a risk premium due to tensions in Côte d'Ivoire. Meanwhile, Ouattara is quietly inaugurating a new plant there which will further increase local processing capacity.

Sep 24 - Global sugar consumption seen recovering in 2020/21 - Rabobank
Global sugar consumption should grow 1.9% in the 2020/21 season (October-September) after a fall of 1.5% in 2019/20 due to the coronavirus pandemic, which will partially offset an expected production increase, Rabobank said on Wednesday. In its quarterly report on the global sugar market, the Dutch bank revised its view for the sugar supply balance in 2019/20 from a deficit of 4.3 million tonnes to a deficit of 1 million tonnes, due to higher production in Brazil and lower demand.
 
 

Sep 23 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The weakness of the British Pound Sterling was only evident at the beginning of yesterday's trading day, March 20 reached the GBP 1847 high relatively quickly, and then "well-behavedly" followed New York on its way down. March 20 tested the GBP 1800 mark with GBP 1798 and closed just above it with GBP 1804 / GBP -34. New York was the much weaker market with a daily loss of $-70 / closing $ 2541 March 20. Otherwise, despite the usual volatility, it was a quiet day. Bloomberg reported that a Chinese company has started the construction of 2 factories in the Ivory Coast. Both factories will have a combined capacity of about 100,000mt and 40% of exports will go directly to China

Sep 23 - Brazil sees 2020 coffee crop at 61.62 mln bags, below 2018 record
Brazilian coffee farmers are seen producing 61.62 million bags of coffee in 2020, a sharp increase from the previous year but slightly shy of the record seen in 2018, the government's agricultural statistics agency Conab said on Tuesday. Last year's production was seen by the agency at 49.3 million bags, while the record in 2018 was estimated at 61.66 million bags. Conab's previous estimate for the 2020 crop, released in January, was in a range between 57.15 and 62.02 million bags.

 Sep 23 - No COVID-19 test, no grape harvest in Spain's Basque Country
All wine industry workers in Spain's Rioja-producing region of Alava must undergo a coronavirus test before they start work to prevent COVID-19 outbreaks putting the grape harvest at risk. Grape pickers, who have dubbed 2020 the "harvest of the masks", will be given their own equipment, including baskets and scissors, which cannot be exchanged, to avoid infections, said a spokeswoman for the Rioja wine regulatory board.

 
Sep 23 - Ivory Coast to boost cocoa processing with 2 new factories
Ivory Coast will increase its cocoa-processing capacity by 14% as well as boost storage space by building two new factories over the next two years, the country's Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) said on Tuesday. The two plants, one in Abidjan and another in San Pedro, will together add 100,000 tonnes to the 710,000 tonnes of processing capacity already in place in the world's top cocoa-producing country, CCC managing director Yves Brahima said.

Sep 22 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The call by some candidates for protests and civil disobedience in the run-up to the elections in Côte d'Ivoire set the tone for yesterday's trading day early on. March 21 opened firm, trading at highs of GBP 1865, before our cocoa market finally adjusted to the other markets (sugar -2.5%/coffee -1.82% etc.) and corrected to GBP 1824 at the low. Closing GBP +25 at GBP 1838. The Dec / March 21 spread also traded GBP +73 to new highs, closing "only" GBP +52. The sharp rise in the position of the Managed Money Funds, reports of excessively dry weather and, among other things, a possible 40% drop in the harvest in Nigeria did the rest yesterday. Yesterday was a perfect example of a textbook "buy the rumor, sell the fact" day...

Sep 22 - Honduran coffee exports likely to rise 14% next season - IHCAFE
Honduran coffee exports are expected to climb 14% during the next harvesting season, a senior sector official said on Monday, citing a forecast for more favorable weather conditions as well as new plantations coming online. Honduras, Central America's top coffee producer, is seen shipping 6.28 million 60-kg bags during the 2020/2021 season, compared with the 5.52 million bags expected in the current 2019/2020 cycle, which concludes at the end of this month.

 
 Sep 22 -
Bolsonaro says U.S. to give Brazil extra sugar import quota

The United States will expand a quota for Brazilian sugar to be imported at a lower tax rate by 80,000 tonnes, in exchange for South America's largest country opening to more U.S. ethanol, Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro said on Monday. Bolsonaro's post on Twitter comes after Brazil on Sept. 11 said it would extend a tariff-free quota for U.S. ethanol by three months.

 
Sep 22 - Ivory Coast dry spell supports cocoa main crop
Mainly below average rains last week in most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa regions bode well for the development of the forthcoming October-to-March main crop amid concerns damp-linked disease could damage pods, farmers said on Monday. In the bush, farmers were expecting to handle more beans this season than last year, while harvesting was picking up ahead of the start of the new marketing season early in October.
 

Sep 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The return of liquidity during the week was no longer visible. At a miserable 4.5k (16k in total), the Mar21 contract ran to highs of GBP 1829 and closed at GBP 1814, ending the week above the psychological GBP 1800 and 3.5% stronger overall. Fundamental news in the forefront of the presidential elections in Côte d'Ivoire may have played its part here, but it is certainly not solely responsible. In the COT the net long position grew by 19k lots to 88k lots net long, with managed money contributing +14k lots (now 64k lots net long). The Dec/Mar21 spread continues to trade at a premium of just under GBP 60, but was virtually untouched on Friday, with just 916 contracts changing hands.

Sep 21 - French sugar firms delay factory runs to limit crop disease losses
France's two largest sugar producers have delayed their annual production runs at some factories to see if sugar beet crops can recover a little of the yield potential lost due to a disease spread by insects. Jaundice spread by aphids, which have proliferated during warm weather, have caused severe damage to sugar beet fields in parts of France, the European Union's largest sugar producer. Summer drought has also hurt beet crops. 

 
Sep 21 - Funds cut bullish bet in raw sugar, raise long position in coffee
Speculators cut their net long position in raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to Sept. 15 by 8,785 contracts for a total net long bet of 112,489 contracts, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Friday. Despite the cut, funds and money managers continue to hold a large long position in raw sugar futures which have gained 7% this week amid strong demand for refined sugar and possible delays to the new season in India.
 
 

Sep 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The market seems undecided, at least judging by yesterday's movement. After opening unchanged, London came under pressure, only to make up for the previous day's losses with a gain of just under 3%, but then to close almost unchanged, basis Mar21 at GBP 1805 (+3). The Dec20 placed a range of GBP 67 on the trading floor. The front spread widened slightly. Further political news from Côte d'Ivoire may be partly responsible for this: in order to prevent Ouattara's - in his view - unjustified ambitions for a third term in office, the banned oppositional Soro demanded international support from the African Union, the EU and the UN.

Sep 18 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Weel 13-18 Sept 2020 (IPC)

Market this week was reported positively. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week to an average of USD 4,428 per Mt. Indonesia black and white peppers were reported with an increase of 3% and 2% respectively when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,951 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,800 per Mt for white pepper. The increase of Indonesia pepper could be contributed to the increase of demand while the stock was limited despite new product coming to the market. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,420 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,807 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white peppers in local market were reported stable with a marginal increase, averaging at USD 2,013 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,831 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 3,123 per Mt while China white pepper was reported stable and unchanged.

International market showed with a similar positive outlook. India black pepper was reported with the same 2% increase as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,700 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 2% respectively as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,386 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,457 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white peppers were reported with an increase of 1% respectively when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,500 Per Mt, USD 2,581 per Mt, and USD 4,020 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported stable and unchanged.

Sep 18 - France fines sugar group Tereos 390,000 euros for late payments
France has fined French sugar and ethanol producer Tereos 390,000 euros ($459,000) for late payments to suppliers, according to a filing published by a state watchdog. Tereos, the world's second-largest sugar producer by volume, has been grappling with low prices following the end of European sugar quotas in 2017, which has hit EU sugar makers' results for several years and driven up the company's debt levels.
 

Sep 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After the rally of the previous day, London again opened more firmly to new highs in Dec20, now the first month. However, after the expected escalation in Côte d'Ivoire failed to materialize due to the elections, and the origin appeared in the market with new sales, London came under pressure and lost a third of its gains. The Mar20 closed GBP 37 down to GBP 1802. The Dec Open Interest unchanged confirms that Tuesday's enormous move (which will be reflected in the coming COT) was due to short / new long cover. The GBP rose to 0.9088. In the structure, the Dec/Mar21 spread, which had so significantly widened, also lost ground and is now trading at GBP 41.

Sep 17 - Russia targets tobacco, mining, oil taxes in hunt to plug budget holes
Russia is considering raising taxes affecting some mining companies, tobacco sales and the oil industry, officials said on Wednesday, in Moscow's latest attempt to plug holes in its budget. The move, estimated to bring in around 340 billion roubles ($4.54 billion) a year, comes as Russia faces a prolonged budget deficit amid weak oil prices and after Moscow stepped up its support for Belarus which includes a $1.5 billion loan.

Sep 16 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The focus in London was initially on the Sep 20 contract, which expired at midday. As soon as it left, there was massive speculative buying, which was accelerated by the opening of NY. With an impressive total volume of almost 58k lots, the Dec20 gained GBP 99, the new second month Mar20 +66, closing at GBP 1839. It is safe to say that further short coverage of the specs as well as new longs were a driving force here. But there are also opinions that there is a risk premium for expected political tensions in the IVC, which could follow the announcement of candidates for the presidential elections. So far, however, the situation on the ground remains largely relaxed.

Sep 16 - U.S. presidential candidate Biden rips Trump's record on ethanol
U.S. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden late on Tuesday attacked President Donald Trump's record on ethanol, saying his administration's recent moves to help the industry were too little, too late and transparently political. Biden said in an exclusive statement to Reuters that the Trump administration's announcement this week that it would reject requests from oil refiners for retroactive waivers exempting them from biofuel blending laws was not enough to outweigh several years of granting large numbers of such waivers - which biofuel producers say erode demand for their products. 

Sep 16 - Forecasts of heavy rains raise fear for summer crops in India
Forecasts of heavy rains across key central and western growing regions of India have stoked fears of potential crop losses in the second half of September, farm experts and industry officials said. Last week, the state-run weather office said the monsoon, which turned patchy in the first week of September, will pick up in most parts of India, with rains expected in some of the key farm belts. 

Sep 16 - France cuts wheat crop estimate again, sugar beet seen down 15%
France's farm ministry on Tuesday lowered its estimate of this year's soft wheat harvest due to a further reduction in the crop area, pegging production at 25% below last year's level after a tough growing season marked by torrential rain and drought. In a monthly report the ministry pegged this year's soft wheat crop in the European Union's largest grain producing country at 29.5 million tonnes, down from the 29.7 million estimated last month and 39.6 million in 2019.

 Sep 15 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

London traded all its contracts in a range of again only GBP 20 (or below), to end the day relatively powerless almost unchanged overall. The closing levels were in each case exactly GBP 10 below their highs. The exception was the Sep 20 contract, which expires at noon today, closing an eventful day at -34. The Sep/Dec20 spread, which was at GBP150 a few months ago, fell down to GBP-95 temporarily, so much to that one should secure terminal stocks before the start of the LID cocoa market. The Dec20 closed at GBP 1804 (+3). Ghana will also raise the farmer price by 21%. As expected, the constitutional supervisory authority of Côte d'Ivoire rejected Soros and Gbagbo's candidature and approved Ouattara's candidature as well as that of its strongest opponent, Bediés.

Sep 15 - EU heading for lower sugar output as pest attacks bite
The European Union is heading for a significant drop in sugar output this year after fields were devastated by pests and dry weather, making the bloc a net importer and pressuring a fragile sugar industry, analysts say. Sugar production in the EU and Britain is set to fall to 16.1 million tonnes, down from about 17 million in 2019, mainly due to lower sugar beet output in top producer France, French growers' group CGB estimates.

Sep 15 - Trump EPA sides with farmers over refiners in biofuel waiver decision
The Trump administration said on Monday it rejected scores of requests from U.S. oil refiners for waivers that would have retroactively spared them from their obligation to blend biofuels like ethanol into their fuel, delivering a win for farmers and a blow to the oil industry just ahead of the November presidential election. Reuters had reported last week that U.S. President Donald Trump, under the advice of his allies in the Midwest, ordered his Environmental Protection Agency to deny the waivers because they had become a lightning rod of controversy in the Farm Belt, an important political constituency. 

Sep 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

London ended the week with a turnover of 21k lots. Despite all main factors, cocoa market turnover remains low (weak GBP with EURGBP 0.924 / GBPUSD 1.282, Covid19, Wahlen CDI...). The Dec20 closed at GBP 1801 (+22). The cocoa world seems to be joining other, equally impassive commodity markets. Unsurprising Commitments of Traders: 75.4k net long (+7k) / Managed Money 51k net long (+11.6k) Perhaps the expiration of the Sep 20 contract this week or the official start of the main crop 2020/21 in Côte d'Ivoire will bring more momentum. The latter will start the new crop year with 58 officially listed exporters - so the expected consolidation does not take place for the time being.

Sep 14 - Speculators cut long position in sugar, raise bullish bet in coffee
Speculators cut their net long position in raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to Sept. 8 by 19,196 contracts for a total net long bet of 121,274 contracts, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Friday. It was the first decrease in the long position of funds and money managers on contracts of the sweetener in a month. During that period, sugar prices rallied to a seven-month top.

 
Sep 14 - Brazil coffee farmers see losses from drought in 2021 crop
Brazilian coffee farmers and analysts are expecting losses to the country's 2021 crop due to an extended dry spell hitting most of the producing areas in the world's largest producer and exporter. Social media chat groups frequented by coffee farmers in Brazil have been flooded in recent days with pictures and videos of crops in bad shape, showing parched branches and dry leaves. 

Sep 11 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 7-11 September 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed relatively no movement as only Indonesia was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable with a marginal increase at an average of USD 4,351 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with 2% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,902 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported stable and unchanged. Malaysia black and white peppers in local market were reported steady with a marginal decrease at an average of USD 2,407 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,786 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white peppers were also reported stable with a marginal decrease averaging at USD 2,012 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,830 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported stable and was traded at an average of USD 3,053 per Mt. China white pepper was traded at an average of USD 4,085 per Mt locally.
- International market also showed a relatively stable. India black pepper was reported steady with a marginal increase at an average of USD 4,623 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with the same 2% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,331 per Mt. Whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported stable with a marginal decrease averaging at USD 4,387 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be reported stable and unchanged. Likewise, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged. China traded its white pepper at an average of USD 4,285 per Mt internationally.

Sep 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Perhaps the most exciting thing yesterday was the British pound. During the day, it lost 2 points against the euro in a matter of hours, trading at 0.922 (Brexite sends its regards), and the pound also lost ground against the USD (currently 1.283). The resulting support in London brought about quite the opposite of the previous day. London was soon able to overcome the psycho-logical hurdle of GBP 1800 Basis Dec 20, but - not surprisingly - hedge sales against original cover took the market on a short leash. Accordingly, Dec 20 once again closed almost unchanged at GBP 1779 (GBP-1). Côte d'Ivoire apparently plans to raise the Farmgate price for the new crop by 21% to 1210 F CFA/kg

Sep 11 - Brazil's sugar production up 16%; ethanol sales down 13%
Mills in Brazil's centre-south region produced 2.93 million tonnes of sugar in the second half of August, 16% more than in the same period a year earlier, industry group Unica said on Thursday. Brazilian mills continue to prioritize sugar production at the expense of ethanol, since the sweetener is currently providing higher financial returns and the market for the biofuel has yet to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.  
 

 Sep 11 - Sugar stockpile to keep Russia self-sufficient as output drops
A sugar stockpile from 5 years of over-supply will ensure there is enough for Russian consumers and keep exports going despite lower output in the 2020/21 season, the IKAR consultancy said. Farmers in Russia reduced their sugar beet sowing area by 18% this year as profitability was pressured by weak domestic sugar prices. Russia has doubled sugar output over the past decade to end its reliance on imports.  

Sep 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The weak British pound, as well as a firm close in NY the previous day, resulted in a firm opening at GBP +11 and the Dec 20 traded at highs of GBP 1797 in the morning, testing the GBP 1800 mark. In the afternoon, the currency's fluctuation was ignored completely and the Dez 20 ended the day, after a really tough event, with GBP -1 at GBP 1780. The National Cocoa & Coffee Board Cameroon ended the current crop yesterday at 257,151mt / -2.7%. This did not bring any new impulses to the market either. Market participants are waiting for the end of the Sep 20 position next Tuesday, the start of the new crop and the adjustment of farmer prices.

Sep 10 - Egypt sets up commodities exchange for wheat, oils, sugar and rice
Egypt on Wednesday announced the formation of a commodities exchange which will initially trade wheat, oils, sugar and rice beginning in the first half of 2021. Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, established the exchange to provide protection for small farmers and producers and make their stocks available to the wider market, the supply ministry said. 

Sep 10 - Brazil likely to extend zero-tariff ethanol imports past U.S. election, sources say
The Brazilian government is planning to extend a tariff-free ethanol import program for three months, two sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Wednesday, a measure likely to please U.S. President Donald Trump's administration. Brazil allowed a non-tariff quota for imports of 750 million liters per year of ethanol to expire at the end of August, resulting in U.S. producers' having to pay a 20% tariff.

Sep 09 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

While New York was unable to do much against the pressure that most commodities were under yesterday and lost $40, London remained largely stable. One explanation is probably to be found in the Brexit negotiations: the cable (USD/GBP) is keeping London afloat as it continued to lose in the face of a likely 'no deal' and is now trading at $1.29 (last week $1.35). Nevertheless, prices have fallen slightly. The Dec 20 contract reached a volume of 9.8k lots in a range and closed at GBP 1781 (GBP -8). The front Sep/Dec 20 spread narrowed again to GBP -34, reflecting the continued grading of mainly Cameroon cocoa, with almost all units passing and receiving certificates in recent weeks. The Dec20/Mar21 spread was barely traded, but remained stable at GBP 23.

Sep 08 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

London was on its own, but produced little worth reporting. After initial fortification, quotations were slightly under pressure. The Dec 20 date found first support on the 150-day average of the 2nd month at GBP 1790, but a short time later marked lows at 1781. The Dec 20 closed GBP 13 down at GBP 1783. During the day the board had traded just 8.8k lots. The GBP is weakening and the next technical support is the 120-day moving average at GBP 1744. NY is back in the game today, and with the USD recovering slightly, NY should be under pressure. Meanwhile, the structure is flattening somewhat, Dec20/Mar21 lost GBP 5 and is now trading at a premium of GBP 21. The origin reports good crop prospects in view of the return of the recent miserable rainfall.

Sep 08 - India to maintain sugar export subsidies for third year in a row - sources
India is set to maintain sugar export subsidies for a third year in a row in a bid to reduce surplus stocks and ensure domestic prices don't fall below a government benchmark, three sources involved in policy making told Reuters. The subsidies are designed to boost exports from the world's second biggest sugar producer though increased shipments could put further pressure on global prices, which have already fallen more than 10% so far this year. 

 
Sep 08 - Rare batch of Brazilian coffee certified by ICE exchange
A rare batch of Brazilian arabica coffee has been certified as deliverable by the ICE exchange, reinforcing bets that rising stocks from the world's top producer will soon start to alleviate supply worries and weigh on futures prices. Arabica stocks in ICE warehouses are currently at 20-year lows and an influx of Brazilian beans could provide a significant boost, though it remains unclear whether the coffee can pass the exchange's strict quality controls in significant quantities.

Sep 07 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

It was an interesting / volatile week end before the long weekend in the USA (Labour Day), with a much weaker performance of NY vs. London (maybe too many fresh longs at too high a level?). The Dez 20 LDN traded in a range of GBP 39, testing the previous day's highs at GBP 1828 and next support at GBP 1790. Closing then lean GBP -2 at GBP 1796. New York seems to be more in line with global economic conditions and ended the day with Commitment of Traders as of 01.09 show a significant increase in Managed Money Longs from over 17K to now just under 39k lots long, with both markets now in a net long position of 70,436 lots net long. Open interest in London fell last week by over 20k lots, while in NY it only fell by 9k lots, a sign of further short supply, mainly in LDN.

Sep 07 - Investors boost bullish bets in sugar, coffee, cotton and cocoa 
Hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish positions in sugar, coffee, cotton and cocoa futures on ICE U.S. in the week to Sept. 1, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Friday. Speculators increased their net long position in raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to Sept. 1 by adding 3,924 contracts for a total net long bet of 140,471 contracts. They increased their net long position in arabica coffee by 7,022 contracts for a total net long bet of 29,240 contracts.
 
 

Sep 04 - World food price index rises for 3rd month running in Aug - FAO
World food prices rose for a third month running in August, led by coarse grains, vegetable oils and sugar, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday. The Food and Agriculture Organization's food price index, which measures monthly changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar, averaged 96.1 points last month versus 94.3 in July.

Sep 03 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report
Contrary to expectations, London opened unchanged and only gained ground when New York took the field. The 150-day average base 2nd month was successfully broken and the 200-day average of the consecutive 2nd month was set as a new target at GBP 1811. However, sales triggered by this could prevent further fortification. The Dec20 closed in the evening at GBP 21 up at GBP 1809, after 8.5k lots (25k lots in total) was once again enough to push the market around within a GBP 25 range. This is the first time we have seen the 1800 in just under three months and we will soon be moving GBP 300 away from the lows on 20th July. The Dec20/Mar21 spread continued to diverge slightly. This premium is usually a hedge against the original risks of the new crop (weather, delays) - risk is only seen politically in IVC, but things have been quiet there in the last few days.

Sep 02 - From soy to coffee, Brazil ag commodities rise to record prices
The price of Brazilian agricultural commodities such as soybeans, corn, coffee and rice has reached record levels as strong demand and a weak currency drove prices higher in local currency, according to data from Cepea, a research center linked to the São Paulo University. Brazil's soybean quotes are up by more than 50% in nominal terms compared to the same period last year, as China continues to buy ever larger amounts of the oilseeds from Brazil, Cepea data showed. On Monday, Brazil's main export product hit 137.76 reais per 60 kg bag, less than 2 reais below an all-time high of 139 reais in 2012.

Sep 02 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The firm opening base close the previous day NY was lower than expected, but the Dec 20 marked a new 12 week high of GBP 1780. Slight hedge pressure from the origin caused the market to consolidate slightly with 3000 lots at midday on a lean turnover. NY took advantage of the still high momentum after opening and moved to levels last seen in March at $2684. London followed with a high of GBP 1793 and headed for the next resistance at GBP 1800. If this is broken, the 200 day moving average at GBP 1810 and the gap from mid-May between 1868 -1892 (created by the 2 month change from May to July) are the next technical resistances. Closing price London Dec 20 GBP +26 at GBP 1788. Once again, technical purchases of funds / specs were the trigger for yesterday's rise. The market seems to be almost completely detached from fundamental factors.

Sep 02 - India's sugar crop faces delays with COVID-19 raging throughout nation
India is facing potential delays in the harvest of its massive sugarcane crop, threatening supply worldwide, as millions of migrant workers needed for the harvest may be scared to travel as coronavirus infections surge throughout the country. India's sugar harvest begins in October, when other major producers are winding down. The country's industry is not mechanized, however, relying on migrant workers to travel throughout the nation to cut cane. But with 3.7 million coronavirus infections, the third highest worldwide, there are fears that the harvest could act as a vector for further infections in India. 

Sep 02 -
ISO sees 2020/21 global sugar deficit as demand rebounds

The International Sugar Organization said on Tuesday it was forecasting a small global sugar deficit of 724,000 tonnes in the 2020/21 season as consumption rebounds from COVID-19-related weakness in the prior season. The inter-governmental body, in a quarterly report, also sharply reduced its forecast for the size of an expected deficit in 2019/20 to a marginal 136,000 tonnes from 9.3 million tonnes partly driven by a downward revision to consumption.

 
 Sep 02 -
Coffee exports down 11% in July; global balance seen at small surplus

Global exports of coffee fell 11% in July compared to the same month a year earlier, to 10.61 million bags, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said on Tuesday, projecting a small surplus on the global supply balance for the 2019-20 season. The ICO still sees global coffee consumption rising 0.3% in the 2019-20 season (October-September), despite the coronavirus pandemic, to 168.39 million bags. 

Sep 02 - Brazil looks at temporary quota for tariff-free ethanol imports - report
Brazil is studying the resumption of a zero-tariff quota for its ethanol imports, but only for three months, aimed at getting the United States to negotiate better access for Brazilian sugar, Valor Economico newspaper reported on Tuesday. Brazil allowed a non-tariff quota for imports of 750 million liters per year of ethanol to expire on Monday, which will result in U.S. producers having to pay a 20% tariff.

Sep 01 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Without influence of the London market, NY took advantage of the day and started the week with a gain of almost 1.2%. In all likelihood this was due to continued short covering or further longs, which had a clear way without resistance due to hedge pressure. The weak dollar also brought support, coupled with a general injection of liquidity into the commodity sector due to the economic situation. One indication of this is the significant increase in open interest in the past few days. However, from the specs' point of view, apart from a slightly inverted market structure, there is nothing to suggest that the long position should be expanded (+20,000 lots within 7 weeks). The ICCO also recognizes the signal of the moment and corrects the previous forecast for the current crop from an 80tmt deficit to an expected surplus of 42tmt. The few prophets of a deficit can now be greeted by handshake.

Sep 01 - ICCO sees global cocoa surplus of 42,000 T in 2019/20
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) on Monday forecast a global cocoa surplus of 42,000 tonnes in the 2019/20 season, which runs from October to September. The inter-governmental body had previously forecast there would be a global deficit of 80,000 tonnes in 2019/20 with the change driven by lower than previously anticipated grindings due mainly to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Aug 31 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Until the Sep 20 options expired, it was a slow day with a slightly negative tone in the markets. In the afternoon, mainly due to currency movements, NY shot up $72 in a very short time. London followed suit with a gain of GBP 45 and broke through the mid-May highs of GBP 1765 at GBP 1774. Closing prices on Dec 20 LDN GBP +42 at GBP 1762, Dec 20 NY $+84 at $2623. Next resistance is expected to start at GBP 1780 (trend line) and GBP 1800. Commitment of Traders as of 25.08 show an increase in the net long position from 7,866 lots to a combined 64,124 lots. Managed Money in London liquidated over 3,000 lots of shorts and added 2,000 lots of fresh long. London is closed today (Late Summer Holiday), NY will open later. Both markets will be open again tomorrow

Aug 31 - China launches second probe into Australian wine imports
China said on Monday it had launched an anti-subsidy investigation on some wine imports from Australia, two weeks after announcing it had begun an anti-dumping probe on such imports. The investigations come against a backdrop of increasing tensions between the two countries after Canberra called for an international inquiry into the origins of the novel coronavirus, which was first detected in China's central city of Wuhan.

 
Aug 31 - Investors boost bullish bets in raw sugar, arabica coffee
Hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish positions in both raw sugar and arabica coffee futures on ICE in the week to Aug. 25, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Friday. Speculators increased their net long position in raw sugar by adding 9,290 contracts for a total long of 136,546 contracts. They increased their net long position in arabica coffee by 5,692 contracts for a total net long bet of 22,218 contracts, CFTC data showed. 

Aug 28 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With just 2000 lots of net volume until noon, the market abruptly moved GBP 45 higher, but did not break through the final highs of GBP 1734 and the 100 day moving average at GBP 1735, which provided significant resistance. Closing price Dec 20 GBP +37 at GBP 1720. short covering, a possible political risk in the Ivory Coast with new candidates and no clear favorite, as well as the Sep 20 options expiring today in LDN with a clear strike level around GBP 1700 were certainly the main triggers for a volatile week in cocoa. The range this week was just under GBP 100, but despite this, or perhaps because of it, the market is still disoriented. The firm closing in NY ($+63) results in a theoretically firm opening of LDN with GBP +22.

Aug 28 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, Week 24-28 August 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed a mixed response as only Indonesia black pepper recorded a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to previous week at an average of USD 4,283 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with 2% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,973 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 3% when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,675 per Mt. The increase of Indonesia white pepper continued to be contributed to the lack of supply whilst demand strong. Malaysia black and white peppers in local market were reported stable with a marginal increase to an average of USD 2,401 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,775 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white peppers were reported stable and unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 5% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 3,069 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable and unchanged.
- International market also showed a mixed response as only Indonesia black pepper recorded a decrease. India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 1% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,552 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with 2% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,414 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 3% when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,319 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported stable with a marginal increase averaging at USD 2,480 per Mt, USD 2,561 per Mt and USD 4,000 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported stable and unchanged.

 

Aug 27 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

With the GBP firm against the USD (high of $1.32), the market came under renewed pressure after a firm pre-midday. The Dec 20 closed with a decline of GBP 37 at GBP 1683 and again low volume, but within a handsome GBP 49 range. Is the pattern of the past days (opening unchanged / during the day GBP ± 35 / close unchanged) past? We will see. Nigeria expects a 20% lower harvest due to weather and corona restrictions. Guillaume Soro, ex-rebel leader and presidential candidate for Côte d'Ivoire, who is in exile in France, asks French President Macron in an open letter to speak about the situation in his country and complained about France's silence so far.

Aug 27 - Brazil sugar production up 51% in August, ethanol sales down 18%
Sugar production in the world's largest maker of the sweetener increased 51% in the first half of August when compared to a year-earlier period, to 3.21 million tonnes for the centre-south region, industry group Unica said on Wednesday. Mills continued to favor production of sugar at the expense of ethanol in Brazil as sales of the biofuel were down 18% in the annual comparison at 1.2 billion liters.


Aug 26 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Breaking through the highs within 15 minutes of opening sets a firm tone for the third day in a row. The Dec 20 missed the highs of the final move at GBP 1734 by GBP 1. With low volume, the Dec 20 ended the day with GBP +12 at GBP 1715. Coverages against short position were, once again, the trigger and this should be reflected in the next COT numbers. The Dec/March spread remains interesting, widening from level to a premium of GBP +30 within a week, with some suggesting a rollover or repositioning of shorts next year. The thesis is supported by the Sep / March spread, which diverged from GBP -20 to GBP +30 within one week.  

Aug 25 - Ivory Coast weather helps main cocoa crop, outlook good - farmers
Rains last week in most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions were below average but thanks to good soil moisture, enough large pods were ripening on trees for a strong start to the October to March main harvest, farmers said on Monday. In the centre-western region of Daloa, which produces a quarter of Ivory Coast’s output, some farmers said they were reluctant to sell beans as they expected better farmgate prices at the start of the new marketing season in October. 

Aug 25 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report
 

This time the fastening lasted until the end. Almost surprisingly, if you look at the past days, where in the end almost every change in one or the other direction was wiped out. With a total liquidity of just 26k lots (Dec 8.6k lots), Dec 20 marked a daily high of GBP 1718 with further short covers and new longs. It closed at GBP 1703, under slight selling pressure, with GBP +44. In Côte d'Ivoire, "CCC-related" sources report pre-sales of the coming crop of 1.3 million mt. Due to the weather in summer, pre-sales have been limited to 1.5 million mt. Meanwhile, the protests in the run-up to the elections continue, but an escalation has been avoided so far.

 Aug 25 - Uncertain future keeps California citrus grower awake at night 

The potential loss of his life's work has kept Vince Bernard up at night, worried about whether he would be able to save his citrus farm. At Bernard Ranches in Riverside, California, the citrus grower saw more than 3,000 boxes of oranges rot when the coronavirus pandemic forced schools and restaurants to close in March. That loss translated into $36,000.

 Aug 25 - Coffee exporter Comexim hires former ETG exec to lead Europe office
Coffee exporter Comexim said on Monday it has hired Alex Perk, the former global head of coffee at ETG (Export Trading Company), to lead a new office it is opening in Europe to expand activities. Headquartered in the Brazilian port city of Santos, with an office in the United States, Comexim exports arabica green coffee from several producing regions in Brazil such as Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo and Bahia.  

Aug 24 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Renewed sales pressure in the morning caused the first half of the day to be weak. The Dec 20 lost almost GBP 40 and found good support on the 50 day moving average of GBP 1626 / low Friday GBP 1625. As so often this week and with low volume, the market recovered significantly in the afternoon. Closing price Dec 20 GBP +10 at GBP 1659 / NY $+9 at $ 2409. Both markets ended the day and week above the psychological barrier of GBP 1650 / $ 2400. Commitment of Traders as of 18.08. show only a slight increase in the net long position from 5,720 lots to 56,258 lots net long. Managed Money gained 10,207 lots, mainly due to LDN with almost 6k lots of short position cover.

Aug 24 - Speculators boost bullish bet in sugar, coffee
Hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish positions in both raw sugar and arabica coffee futures on ICE in the week to Aug. 18, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Friday. Speculators increased their net long position in raw sugar by adding 19,246 contracts for a total long of 127,257 contracts. They increased their net long position in arabica coffee by 3,516 contracts for a total net long bet of 16,526 contracts, CFTC data showed.

 
Aug 24 - Bosnia's fruit growers prove resilient amid pandemic downturn
Plum season is upon us, and in the orchards of northern Bosnia fruit growers are busy with the harvest, most of which will be processed at local factories and shipped to buyers in the European Union and Russia. Despite being in urgent need of reform, Bosnia's agricultural sector has weathered the global pandemic better than others, and was among the few industries to record growth in exports in the first half of the year - albeit a meagre 2.5%.

Aug 21 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market report, Week 17-21 August 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week was reported with a positive outlook. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to previous week at an average of USD 4,245 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable with a marginal change at an average of USD 2,021 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 3% when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,570 per Mt. The increase of Indonesia white pepper continued to be contributed to the lack of supply whilst demand strong. Malaysia black and white peppers in local market were reported stable with a marginal increase to an average of USD 2,395 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,766 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,012 per Mt whilst Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 2,830 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,917 per Mt. China white pepper traded at an average of USD 4,085 per Mt locally.
- International market also showed a positive outlook as India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 1% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,512 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 2,466 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 2% when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,200 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 2%, 2% and 1% respectively when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,470 per Mt, USD 2,551 per Mt and USD 3,990 per Mt respectively. China traded its white pepper at an average of USD 4,285 per Mt internationally.

Aug 21 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Without paying attention to the GBP's loss against the USD, London opened unchanged, and soon came under pressure. However, new short position cover and purchases of the Dec/Mar 20 spread brought considerable support, taking the 2nd month close to the 1700 mark at highs of 1696 base Dec 20. But headwinds from New York swept all fastening off the table, with arbitrage converging around GBP 20G. Dec 20 finally ended the day almost 50 points below the morning highs, closing at GBP 1649 (-23). Next support should come from the 50-day moving average The GBP, which is still weaker today, could, however, put a brake on the downtrend.

Aug 21 - Ivory Coast, Ghana create joint body to coordinate cocoa policies 
The world's two largest cocoa producers, Ivory Coast and Ghana, have created a joint body to improve coordination in research, price setting and the fight against child labour, the Ivorian government said on Thursday. The two countries, which produce around 60% of the world's cocoa, have coordinated on some of those issues before, but the new organisation marks a formal step towards closer ties. 

Aug 20 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Until midday on Dec 20 it was still difficult to break the "Doulbe Bottom" of the last 2 days at GBP 1654. In the third attempt, this was successful and sell orders placed at GBP 1650 led to a new low of GBP 1642, which was ultimately seen as a movement. But how could it be otherwise...in the afternoon the market regained its footing and ended the day (once again) almost unchanged at GBP -1 at GBP 1672. The lack of volume, the absence of most market participants (except the "machines") and the almost unchanged closing prices make it difficult, at least from a chart technical point of view, to believe in a downtrend.

Aug 20 - India raises sugar cane floor price by 3.6 % - minister 
India's cabinet has approved raising the price that sugar mills must pay for cane in the next season beginning Oct. 1, to 285 rupees per 100 kg, up from 275 rupees a year earlier, a minister told reporters on Wednesday. The government raises the floor price for cane every year, but Uttar Pradesh state, the country's top cane producer, invariably raises the floor price further due to its millions of cane growers, an influential voting bloc.

 
Aug 20 - Vietnam coffee market dull on thin supply; Indonesia premium falls 
Coffee trading in Vietnam was sluggish this week due to low stockpiles, while Indonesian premiums narrowed as a progressing harvest increased supply, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold coffee at 33,300-33,500 dong ($1.44-$1.45) per kg, compared with last week's 33,000-33,500 dong range.

 
Aug 20 - Nespresso launches coffee range sourced from eastern Congo 
Nespresso, part of food giant Nestle, said on Wednesday it had launched a new range of organic coffee sourced from the fertile volcanic slopes of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, a former growing region blighted by decades of violence and war. Coffee was one of Congo's largest exports before the country plunged into civil war in the late 1990s. A constellation of armed groups continue to control large swathes of territory in the east, forcing many farmers to flee homes and abandon crops.
 

Aug 19 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

As on the day before, but with a negligible volume (16.7k lots), the market came again under pressure. The 2nd month lost GBP27 at its peak and saw lows of GBP1654. Late in the afternoon the prices found support. The market closed at GBP 1673 (-8) on Dec 20, trading just under GBP 50 below the technical resistance of GBP 1720, the 200-day moving average. The weak USD ($1.32 vs. GBP) caused arbitrage to narrow further (GBP169 Dec20/Dec21) and should typically have a bullish effect. However, the weakness in recent days suggests that the market is pursuing its own agenda. The front spread is tightening, precipitation is increasing, speculative coverage is decreasing and the GBP is firm. On balance bearish...

Aug 19 - Cham-pain: grape harvest cut as pandemic crushes bubbly sales 
France's champagne makers reached a last-minute agreement on Tuesday to cut the volume of grapes they will harvest this year by more than a fifth as they try to cope with a collapse in sales caused by the coronavirus crisis. With harvesting off to an early start after warm, dry weather this year, producers struck a deal to reduce grape volumes to 8,000 kg per hectare, down nearly 22% from 10,200 kg in 2019, the CIVC industry body said. 

Aug 18 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

At least chart wise it was an extremely interesting start to the week with an almost perfect mirror image of Friday's movement. The selling pressure that began on Friday afternoon continued yesterday, with the Dez 20 losing over GBP 40 (low GBP 1654) at its peak, only to end the day (again) almost unchanged at GBP -6 at GBP 1681. The near Sep / Dec 20 spread is treated in a similarly rude manner and turned from a GBP +21 premium to a discount of GBP -16 in 2 days. The greater than expected shift in the speculative position from short to long and the absence of many fundamental market participants were certainly the triggers and suggest further highly volatile days

Aug 18 - Ivory Coast's main cocoa harvest to begin early, boosted by good weather 
Below average rainfall last week in most of top grower Ivory Coast’s cocoa regions is expected to support the development of the upcoming main crop, with harvesting set to begin early, farmers said on Monday. Farmers across the country said they were preparing to start harvesting this week ahead of the October-to-March main crop. Pods were ripening on trees, boosted by high soil moisture content from the ongoing rainy season, they said.
 

Aug 17 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The Dec 20 finally seemed to leave the resistance of GBP 1700 behind. Stronge front spread buying pushed London to a new 6-week high. On the other side of the ocean, the market barely managed to keep up, which natrrowed the arbitrage by a considerable GBP 30 The origin did not hesitate and used the levels for further selling. The subsequent hedge selling put the market under pressure. On balance, Dec 20 lost GBP -8 and closed at GBP 1688. As expected, Commitments of Traders showed a total of around 11k lots in short cover, the total net long position now stands at 50,538 lots, London just 1,278 lots net long. Managed Money increased by 15k lots to 3,802 net long.

Aug 17 - Funds slightly cut large raw sugar long bet, coffee position stable 
Speculators slightly reduced their large net long position in raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to Aug. 11 by cutting 3,429 contracts to a total long of 108,011 contracts, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Friday. Sugar futures on ICE touched a five-month peak on Friday at 13.28 cents per pound, as sentiment remained positive despite a possibly record output in top producer Brazil. 

Aug 14 - Weekly Int'l Pepper Market Report, week 10-14 August 2020 (IPC)

- Market this week showed a mixed response with only Indonesia black pepper was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to previous week at an average of USD 4,199 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with 4% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,026 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 3,478 per Mt. The decrease of Indonesia black pepper price could be contributed to the harvest season currently ongoing, thus, pushing down the local price. Malaysia black and white peppers in local market were reported stable with a marginal increase at an average of USD 2,387 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,754 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 2% and 5% respectively when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,995 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,829 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,864 per Mt.
- International market also showed a mixed response as only India origin was reported with an increase. India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 1% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,466 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with 4% deficit when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,472 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported steady averaging at USD 4,098 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported stable with a marginal increase averaging at USD 2,430 per Mt, USD 2,511 per Mt and USD 3,950 per Mt respectively.

Aug 14 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Within a narrow range, London traded largely sideways, closing almost unchanged. Dec 20 tested the psychological GBP 1700 - as in the previous days - but ended its efforts again below at GBP 1696 (-1). The technical resistance at the 200-day moving average is trading 25 points further north. The structure remains flat. There is no clear trend to be seen as the open interest of the front months is declining. The only thing that seems clear is the ongoing short covering and successive selling of the origin. In the IVC the situation is becoming increasingly tense with fierce protests against President Ouattara's candidacy for a third term in office in the pre-electoral period; tragically, there were deaths yesterday.

Aug 14 - Spice is right as Indonesian startups eye value in vanilla
Indonesian Sofa Arbiyanto had a manufacturing job in South Korea two years ago when he learned about the high price of vanilla on the global market, and decided to try his luck at growing it. Now he has 2,000 vanilla vines on a 1,200-sq-metre (0.3-acre) farm in Blora, Central Java, started after he did some internet research and joined online groups of vanilla farmers.

Aug 14 - German coffee association demands U.S. drop "unfair" tariffs
The German Coffee Association said it was relieved the United States had held off expanding tariffs on coffee products from Europe imposed in retaliation for subsidies for planemaker Airbus, but said existing tariffs should be dropped. "From the perspective of the German coffee industry, the U.S. administration's decision has prevented worse for U.S. consumers and the German coffee industry," Director Johannes Hielscher said in an emailed statement.

Aug 14 - Brazil coffee growers sold 51% of new crop, way ahead of average - consultancy
Brazilian coffee farmers have sold 51% of this year's crop by Aug. 10, a much faster sales pace than the five-year average for this time of the year of 37%, consultancy Safras & Mercado said on Thursday. The number gains significance given that Brazil is on track to harvest an all-time high crop this year seen at 68 million 60-kg bags by traders and analysts in a Reuters poll. 
 

Aug 13 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

Minimal volume, maximum sluggishness and finally, nevertheless, a light mounting characterized yesterday's picture in London. Specs as well as commercial traders were - if at all - very reserved in the market. After opening unchanged, prices slowly but steadily firmed - mainly driven by firmer prices in New York and a weakening British pound (in view of the almost 17% lower gross domestic product). The second month, with the high of GBP 1705, still failed to close the gap created the day before at 1708/1703, but only GBP 3 was missing. But profit taking put pressure on the market late in the afternoon, with the Dec 20 closing at GBP 1679 (+11).

Aug 13 - U.S. sugar stocks-to-use ratio rises, demand view unchanged
The U.S. sugar stocks-to-use ratio projection increased to 14.6% for 2020-21 versus 13.5% seen in July, as sugar production in the country was revised upwards, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Friday. In its monthly supply and demand report, the USDA said sugar production in the United States should reach 9.256 million short tonnes (MST) in 2020-21 compared with 9.090 MST seen in July, as the agency increased expected beet sugar production in the country by 200,000 short tonnes. 

Aug 12 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

The weak opening left a gap (1708 / 1703) in the 2nd month, which could not be closed during the day. The quotations came under pressure from new shorts and lost almost GBP 40, but found support on the 100-day moving average. Dec 20 closed at 1686 (-22). And the origin? Côte d'Ivoire reported arrivals of almost 10k mts as of 9 August (+2.5mt YoY) and lack of rainfall. Simone Gbagbo, wife of ex-president Laurent Gbagbo, is applying to President Ouattara of Côte d'Ivoire for political amnesty for her exiled husband, in order to enable him to stand for election in October. It would not surprise anyone, however, if the request were to be examined only after the elections...

Aug 12 - Brazil sugar output up 37% while ethanol stocks rise 30%
Sugar output in Brazil's main production belt rose 37% in the second half of July year-on-year to 3.41 million tonnes, as mills held on to the strategy to maximize the sweetener's production at the expense of ethanol. According to a report by industry group Unica on Tuesday, mills processed 50.47 million tonnes of sugar cane in the second part of July, 1.15% more than last year and slightly above market expectations for the period.

 
Aug 12 - Vietnam July coffee exports at 110,028 tonnes, down 13.8% m/m - customs
Vietnam, the world's top robusta producer, exported 110,028 tonnes, or 1.83 million 60-kg bags, of coffee in July, down 13.8% from June, customs data showed on Wednesday. Actual coffee exports in April were lower than the government's estimate of 120,000 tonnes. For the first seven months of the year, Vietnam exported 1.05 million tonnes of coffee, down 1.1% from a year earlier, Vietnam Customs said in a statement.
 
 

Aug 11 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

After a firm opening in London, new highs quickly manifested just above the 200-day moving average, taking the GBP 200 above last month's lows. It was not until late in the afternoon that price hedges against further original cover put pressure on the quotations. With good turnover, the Dec 20 closed at GBP 1712 (-3). In recent weeks, the CCC was able to make up most of its pre-sales, which two months ago were still well below the usual levels. The COT of the weekend with the remarkable coverage of 21k lots in New York vs. only 3.5k lots in London suggest that at least 15k lots of new longs have been established since the closing date a week ago.

Aug 10 - Daily Cocoa Futures Market Report

An active end to the week on both markets. London opened slightly firmer, but moved only minimally until the afternoon. After opening in NY, where a firmer US dollar put pressure on prices, London rallied and marked new highs just below the 200-day moving average with further short covering and original sales as consequence. Dec20 closed at GBP 1715 (+30). The Commitment of Traders shows a NY-dominated change in the net position by 26,175 lots, from 21,410 net short to 4,765 lots net long. In London the speculative short position decreased by 3,755 lots to 17,085 lots net short. However, as of 4.8.2020, which therefore only represents a part of the recent GBP +90 increase. 

Aug 10 - Funds add more than 40,000 contracts to large raw sugar long bet
Speculators sharply increased their net long position in raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to Aug. 4 by adding 40,970 contracts to a total long of 111,440 contracts, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Friday. The large increase in funds' position in raw sugar futures came as overall commodities buying jumped due to a weaker dollar, and as news of fresh demand from Asia improved the outlook for the sugar market.

 
Aug 10 - Glass half empty: Italy, France seek premium wine output cut as virus hits sales
Leading producers Italy and France are looking to slash premium wine output from the upcoming harvest to shore up prices after the coronavirus pandemic hammered sales and led to a glut of stock. In Italy domestic demand for wine is expected to fall by almost a third after lockdown forced the closure of hotels, restaurants and wine bars for months, and with tourists still all but absent. Exports have also fallen and wine makers fear a loss of around 1 billion euros this year, or 9% of total sales.

Aug 10 - S.Korean farmers bartering sugar for N.Korean booze to bypass sanctions 
A South Korean farmers' cooperative said on Thursday it has clinched a 150 million won ($127,000) deal to barter sugar for North Korean liquor and food products, bypassing sanctions banning cash transfers. The deal, brokered by a Chinese company, was signed in June with five North Korean trading firms, an official for the cooperative said, though it still needs approval from Seoul's Unification Ministry, which oversees inter-Korean affairs.