Grains, Seeds, Vegoils, Meals, Softs, Agri News

Feb 02 - Mississippi levels, high basis prices upend CIF Gulf-FOB Gulf relationship (AgriCensus)

- A combination of price-sensitive destination markets and ongoing domestic logistic challenges could threaten to further disrupt US corn exports as current prices at the primary US Gulf export hub make it less profitable for exporters to bring corn to the global market. Key is an inversion between US Gulf CIF barge values - the primary transport method for delivering corn from the fields of the Midwest to the Gulf ports - and the FOB cargo market, the main method of international exports.

- While Mississippi River water levels are no longer at the multi-decade lows seen last autumn, corn barge traffic on the waterway is still vulnerable, which along with high basis prices has resulted in higher premiums for front-month CIF Gulf barges than for FOB cargoes along the Gulf Coast. While winter precipitation has led to a return to normal traffic on the river, warnings of a reduction in drafts in St Louis last week helped explain the most recent move of the CIF barge premium over that for FOB Gulf.  
"I think it is mostly a logistical issue with drafts in the St Louis area expected to drop from about 12 feet to less than 10 feet, making it more difficult to get an adequate supply of corn barges to the Gulf and hence, the premium to the FOB market," Larry Shonkwiler at Advance Trading told Agricensus.

- The CIF US Gulf barge premium to CME corn futures is normally lower than that for FOB US Gulf, allowing for the profitable movement of grain from growing regions in the middle of the country to ports in Louisiana, where it is transferred to large ships for the journey to customers in Asia, Latin America and elsewhere. Transportation issues are upsetting this relationship, so the front-month CIF US Gulf barge premium stood at a 91c/bu premium to the March CME corn contract last week, far exceeding the FOB US Gulf premium of 83c/bu.
"CIF barge is usually a discount, so this is unusual," senior grain and oilseed commodity analyst at Futures International Terry Reilly told Agricensus. During the past year, the average CIF US barge premium stood at $1.10/bu, well below the FOB Gulf premium of $1.26/bu.

- FOB is at a discount to CIF "due to the low water levels on the Mississippi River all summer. This has no doubt hurt US export business out of the Gulf and will continue to until water levels are restored,” Brain Hoops, president at Midwest Market Solutions, told Agricensus. And, while the CIF premium to FOB would appear to make it unprofitable to export corn from the central US, it's not necessarily the case, Jay O’Neil, owner of HJ O’Neil Commodity Consulting, said in an interview.
“You must keep in mind that many February barges will be feeding March cargoes, there’s often a ten-day to a two-week logistical lag time between barge shipments and vessel loadings. For example, from the Illinois River to New Orleans there’s a 10-14-day transit time to the ports in New Orleans,” O'Neil said.
"Depending on a facilities vessel loading schedule, you can still eke out a small margin in late February-early March,” O'Neil added.

- The war between Russia and Ukraine and the low water levels in the Mississippi combined to make CME corn futures incredibly volatile over the past year, with the front-month contract surging to a nine-year high of over $8/bu in April before plunging to under $6/bu in July.
"Historically high volatility in commodity markets has made farmers more cautious and constantly waiting for the next big rally," O'Neil said. This volatility has led some farmers to hold back on supplies as they wait for the next peak, driving basis prices higher, irrespective of what's happening to futures in Chicago.
"Corn basis is near 20-year highs across the country... We’ve seen farmers watching the market go up and down, and they seem to always miss the highs," Reilly said.
"When the commodity futures contract price is not encouraging sufficient farmer selling, the basis price must do the heavy lifting. The basis price always works to keep the grain flow regulated at the needed level,” according to O'Neil.

- The decisions made by US farmers to hold out for higher prices combined with low water in the Mississippi last year, limited rail capacity, and greater competition from Brazil, have led to lower US corn exports. Accumulated corn exports for the 2022/23 marketing year now total 12.61 million mt – down 36% from 19.57 million mt recorded at the same point in 2022 - and a lack of cheap corn supply means the FOB basis price is having to work hard to ensure any trade at all.  
"It would seem difficult to find enough cheap origin bushels that will suddenly price us into being massively competitive in the current export picture," Kelly Herrick of Advance Trading said in an interview with Agricensus.
"I think we're relegated to watching if South America has production issues or if Chinese demand changes the narrative on the forward export picture," he continued.

Feb 02 - Argentina's grain export revenue plunges in January, chamber says
Argentina's revenue from exports of grain, oilseeds and their derivatives plummeted 61% in January from a year ago, exporters and crushers chamber CIARA-CEC said on Wednesday, in a setback as the country tries to refill foreign currency reserves. Exports totaled $928.37 million in the first month of the year, also falling 75% over the previous month, as the world's largest exporter of soybean oil and meal grapples with a severe drought that has delayed fieldwork and affected grain output.

Feb 02 - U.S. acreage season kicks off as CBOT corn, soy battle year-ago levels - Braun
The 2023 U.S. crop acreage conversation started many months ago, but Chicago futures prices during February will offer a solid piece of that puzzle, and corn may be making a better argument than soybeans right now. New-crop CBOT corn and soybean futures are both starting February near the date’s highest-ever levels, theoretically beneficial for U.S. farmers as their 2023 insurance guarantees will be determined by this month’s average prices.

Feb 02 - South Korea tenders to buy estimated 79,439 tonnes rice – traders
South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 79,439 tonnes of rice, European traders said on Wednesday. The tender seeks non-glutinous brown medium grain rice and non-glutinous milled medium grain rice in a series of consignments for arrival in South Korea in 2023 between May 1 and Dec. 31, they said.

Feb 02  - Jordan buys about 50,000 tonnes feed barley in tender - traders
Jordan's state grain buyer has purchased about 50,000 tonnes of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender which closed on Wednesday, traders said. Traders had initially estimated the purchase at up to 60,000 tonnes.

Feb 01  - Central European states ask EU to ease problems caused by influx of Ukrainian grain
Six Central European states have asked the European Union to take steps to mitigate problems caused by increased Ukrainian grain imports into the region, saying the influx has cut prices and hurt local farmers, government officials said. Ukraine is a major global grain producer and exporter, but production and exports have fallen since Russia invaded the country last February and started blockading its seaports.

Feb 01  - Export curbs fail to arrest India's booming rice shipments - sources
India's rice exports in 2022 jumped to a record high despite the government's curbs on overseas sale, as buyers continued to make purchases from the South Asian country because of competitive prices, according to government and industry officials. The record exports allowed Asian and African countries to import the staple at a time when supplies of wheat and other grains were hit by drought and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Feb 01  - Jordan buys about 60,000 tonnes wheat in tender – traders
Jordan's state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in a tender which closed on Tuesday, traders said. The wheat was thought likely to be sourced from the Black Sea region, with Romanian origin expected to be supplied.

Feb 01  - EU soybean imports rise 35% on week, to hit 153k mt (AgriCensus)

- EU weekly soybean imports rose to 153,557 mt in the week to January 29, or 35% above week-on-week, while the previous total was revised up by 113,780 mt, data from the European Commission showed Tuesday. During the reporting week, Spain was the leading importer receiving 85,781 mt, followed by Portugal (25,020 mt), and Belgium (17,345 mt). The total soybean import figure for the current marketing year stands at 6.2 million mt, or 20% below last year's pace. Since July 1, 2022, the Netherlands stands as the leading EU soybean importer with 1.8 million mt arriving, followed by Spain (1.65 million mt), Germany (1.1 million mt ), Italy (467,732 mt), and then Portugal (420,598 mt).

- Soybean meal imports into the EU during the reporting week amounted to 216,726 mt, 15% down week-on-week, lifting the total for the marketing year to date to 9.2 million mt, a 4% decrease year-on-year. During the week between January 22-29, the Netherlands was the leading importer of soybean meal to the European Union (85,192 mt), followed by Spain (55,237 mt) and Ireland (26,400 mt). From July 1, 2022, the Netherlands and Poland received 1.5 million mt of soybean meal each, Spain imported (1.4 million mt), and France (1.2 million mt).

- Finally, weekly palm oil imports totaled 81,471 mt, bringing total imports since July 1, 2022 to 2 million mt, down 38% from last year. The Netherlands stands as a leading importer of palm oil into the EU, with total imports of 952,406 mt, followed by Italy with 915,324 mt, and Spain with 799,987 mt, since July 1, 2022.

Jan 31  - Indian rice market was relatively quiet (IHSmarkit)

- India’s rice market faces difficult to secure rice for export
- Lower sales of Indian non-Basmati rice
- Platts Indian 5% broken was assessed higher on tight supply

- Indian rice prices were very volatile, but the market was “pretty quiet”, according to Platts. Market participants reported that it was difficult to secure rice for export as mills continued to focus on processing rice for the government’s public distribution scheme.
- Fresh sales of Indian non-Basmati rice were lower due to high prices.
- The rupee showed fresh signs of strength from 25 January onwards. This scenario and high local prices offset the reduce the lower sales and encouraged exporters to maintain their offers.
- Platts Indian 5% broken white rice ended the week to 27 January assessed up to $435 /tonne FOB as white rice supply was particularly tight.
- The Basmati market activity was quieter amid a decline in offshore demand. Platts Indian 1509 Parboiled Basmati 2% broken was assessed down to $1,037/tonne FOB FCL based on an indicative value to be below offers.

Jan 31  - China’s veg oil stocks at near 3-year high as demand stagnates (IHSmarkit)

- China’s inventories of palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil at its ports rose to 1.74 million tonnes by Jan. 27 -- the highest that stock levels have reached in China since March 2020, according to shipment data from vegetable oil traders.
- According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, higher stock levels at ports indicate poor local demand and consumption by China in the past month contrary to earlier market expectations of an uptick in vegetable oil demand, traders said.
- Vegetable oil markets had surged in end December on expectations that the second largest vegetable oil buyer would ramp up buying after Beijing announced a shift in its zero-COVID policy and ahead of the Lunar New Year festivities.
- Palm oil stocks were recorded at 918,000 tonnes on Jan. 27, trade data showed. On Dec. 30 2022, China’s palm oil stocks at ports were recorded at 969,600 tonnes. Palm oil stocks at the end of January 2023 were more than double of stock levels compared with January 2022.
- Soybean oil stocks rose to 677,300 tonnes by Jan. 27, up from 624,800 tonnes on Dec. 30, the data showed. In the same time period, rapeseed oil rose sharply to 147,500 tonnes from 107,000 tonnes.

Jan 31  - JV including US ethanol producer Green Plains inks huge biojet offtake deal (AgriCensus)

- US agribusiness company Green Plains on Tuesday said it has set up a joint venture – named Blue Blade – with energy infrastructure company Tallgrass and United Airlines to develop full-scale alcohol-to-jet production from ethanol by 2028 that aims to provide up to 135 million gallons a year of offtake.

- The partnership is a major development in the respective ethanol and biojet fuels sectors in the US, and will harness Green Plains' potential production of low-carbon, corn-based ethanol with the technology knowledge of Tallgrass, a refining and pipeline company that is financed by Blackstone group, one of the world’s biggest private equity investors.

- Meanwhile the 2.7-billion gallon total size of the offtake deal with United Airlines – which says it has agreed to buy more sustainable aviation than any other carrier – is one of the biggest ever in the sector.

Jan 31  - Brazil farmers harvest 5% of soybean planted area, AgRural says
Brazilian farmers have harvested 5% of the planted soybean area in the 2022/23 cycle through last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up 3 percentage points from the previous week but still below last year's levels. At the same time in 2022, 10% of the Brazilian soy fields had been reaped, said AgRural, which currently expects this season's crop to reach 152.9 million tonnes but already hints at potential yield cuts ahead.

Jan 31  - Indian wheat prices drop after Modi releases grain for flour millers
Wheat prices in India, the world's biggest consumer of the grain after China, have dropped nearly 13% from record highs since the government offer last week of 3 million tonnes to bulk consumers such as flour millers. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government on Wednesday allowed flour millers to buy up to 3 million tonnes of wheat from state reserves.

Jan 31  - Ukraine grain exports down 30.8% so far in 2022/23, ministry says
Ukraine has exported almost 26.3 million tonnes of grain so far in the 2022/23 season, down from the 37.9 million tonnes exported by the same stage of the previous season, agriculture ministry data showed on Monday. The volume included about 9.4 million tonnes of wheat, 14.9 million tonnes of corn and about 1.8 million tonnes of barley.

Jan 30  - Brazil corn harvest cut to 125.3 million mt due to drought in south (AgriCensus)

- Brazil’s total corn production has the potential to reach the historical mark of 125.3 million mt in 2022/23, lower than the previous 126.6 million mt projection but exceeding the 120.2 million mt from the 2021/22 season, local consultancy Safras & Mercado has said in a report released on Friday. The reduction reflects lower production of summer crop due to drought in the south. The country’s total corn area is projected at 21.60 million ha in 2022/23, slightly below the previous 21.65 million ha estimate and a 0.3% decline compared to the 21.663 million ha from 2021/22. The average yield is expected to reach 5.8 mt per hectare in the current season, surpassing the 5.55 mt/ha from the past crop, but below the 5.8 mt/ha projected in December.

Summer crop
- Brazil’s summer corn 2022/23 production in the center-south Brazil is projected to reach 23.7 million mt, below the 24.8 million mt estimated in December, but remains above the 21.8 million mt from the previous crop. The reduction reflects the significant cut in corn production in Rio Grande do Sul, which has been severely affected by the drought, Safras & Mercado consultant Paulo Molinari said. The harvest in the southern state is now estimated at 4.6 million mt, below the 5.8 million mt projected in the previous estimate, but was still ahead of the 3.4 million mt harvested in the 2021/22 summer crop. Planted area is expected to fall by 4.5% year-on-year, to 4.1 million hectares in the center-south Brazil, while the average yield is projected at 5.6 mt/ha versus 4.9 mt/ha a year ago.

Safrinha
- The second corn crop safrinha planted area is expected to reach 14.95 million ha, slightly below the 14.97 million hectares forecast in December, but surpassing the 14.8 million ha from 2021/22. The output is estimated at 87.7 million mt, slightly below the 87.8 million mt forecasts in December, but sets a new record by surpassing the 84.4 million mt from last year.

Jan 30 - Indian sugar mills to close early as rain hits cane supply
Sugar mills in India's top producing state Maharashtra are set to stop cane crushing 45 to 60 days earlier than last year as heavy rain has curtailed sugar cane availability, a senior state government official told Reuters on Friday. The western state of Maharashtra, which accounts for more than a third of the country's sugar output, could produce 12.8 million tonnes of sugar in the 2022/23 marketing year that began on Oct. 1, down from an earlier forecast of 13.8 million tonnes, Maharashtra's sugar commissioner Shekhar Gaikwad said. 

Jan 30 - Funds defend CBOT corn long but sell soymeal after historic run-up -Braun
Chicago grain and oilseed futures slipped early last week amid the lack of fresh news to support recent highs, particularly as rain fell on drought-stricken crops in major exporter Argentina. Speculators were net sellers across the soy complex and in wheat in the week ended Jan. 24, but they extended their net long in CBOT corn to an 11-week high of 201,797 futures and options contracts, up nearly 10,000 on the week.

Jan 27  - Rouen's weekly wheat exports dip to 100k mt (AgriCensus)

- Activity at France's main grain export hub of Rouen slowed once again, with only 100,561 mt of wheat loaded in the week to January 25, down 33% on the week, data from French port operator Haropa showed. During the reporting week, wheat volumes from Rouen reached 100,561 mt, including 31,500 mt headed to Algeria, 31,061 mt to Mauritania and 27,000 mt to Morocco, while 5,400 mt went to Cameroon and 5,600 mt to Gabon.

- Alongside that, 150,343 mt of feed barley was shipped over the week, with the lion's share going to China (146,542 mt) and a small volume going to the UK (3,801 mt).

- In addition, 11,750 mt of malt barley was shipped, including 7,350 mt headed to the Netherlands and another 4,400 mt cargo shipped to Spain.

- Separately, data from the French Atlantic port of La Pallice showed that 33,700 mt of wheat was scheduled for shipment, mainly to the Ivory Coast (28,650 mt) and to Spain (5,050 mt), along with 81,728 mt of feed barley headed to China.

- France exported 7.6 million mt of wheat to countries outside the European Union between the start of the marketing year on July 1 and January 22, according to delayed data from the European Commission. French exports of soft wheat were 50% more than last year's figure and the 3-year average.

- Agriculture agency FranceAgriMer expects the country to export 10.6 million mt of wheat outside the EU (up 21% year-on-year) and 6.64 million mt to other EU member states (down 17% year-on-year) through the current marketing year. The Commission collects customs data from EU countries, which may lag behind port data.

Jan 27 - ADM's earnings top forecasts on strong crush margins, buoyant demand
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co on Thursday said robust soy crushing margins and hefty global demand for crops had propelled the U.S. grains merchant to a record fourth-quarter profit and would keep driving strong results in 2023. The solid quarterly earnings highlighted how global crop merchants like ADM have weathered rising energy costs and supply chain disruptions such as lower Black Sea grain exports following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 

Jan 27 - Recent bump in U.S. soy bookings eases forward sales pressure -Braun
U.S. soybean exports have been unusually strong so far this month and sales activity has ticked up in recent weeks despite a weaker outlook from the government. In line with most analyst ideas, the U.S. Department of Agriculture earlier this month reduced domestic 2022-23 export estimates for both soybeans and corn, the latter of which still may disappoint versus expectations.

Jan 26  - Argentina soy sales lag previous year at 80.6% of harvest
Soybean sales from Argentina's 2021/2022 harvest covered 80.6% of the 44 million tonne harvest as of last week, below the 82.6% sold from the previous season at the same time, data from its agricultural ministry showed Wednesday. Between Jan. 12-18, producers sold 42,000 tonnes of soy, one of the lowest weekly volumes reported in recent months. 

Jan 26  - India to offer 3 mln tonnes wheat to bulk consumers to cool prices
India will provide 3 million tonnes of wheat to bulk consumers such as flour millers, as part of efforts to bring down prices, which jumped to a record high on Wednesday, a government official told Reuters. The allocation is more than traders' expectations of around 2 million tonnes. The market was waiting for government permission for nearly two months as supplies dwindled at the tail end of the wheat marketing year even as demand surged. 

Jan 26  - Iraq buys 150,000 tonnes of wheat from Australia - Trade Ministry
Iraq has bought 150,000 tonnes of wheat from Australia, the Trade Ministry said in a statement on Wednesday.European traders said in initial assessments that Iraq’s state grains buyer is believed to have purchased about 150,000 tonnes of wheat that was expected to be sourced from Australia in an international on Wednesday.

Jan 25  - US ethanol production and stockpiles move higher week-on-week (AgriCensus)

- US ethanol production rose by 4,000 barrels per day in the week ending January 20 while stockpiles climbed by over 1 million barrels, data published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed Wednesday. Total ethanol production across the US increased to 1.012 million b/d in the reporting week, up from 1.008 b/d a week earlier.

- The weekly gain landed below analyst predictions, which had forecasted a week-on-week increase to be up 6,000 thousand barrels to 1.014 million b/d. Over the week, full production equated to the consumption of 2.61 million mt of corn, up from 2.6 million mt a week earlier.

- Ethanol stockpiles also moved up from the prior week by 1.67 million barrels to 25.08 million barrels in the period covered by the report. The stockpile increase was much greater than analysts had expected, where outlooks had projected stocks to be up around 235,000 barrels to 23.637 million barrels.

- Margins calculated through a model from Iowa State University showed that the estimated return over operating costs for the average Midwest-based plant advanced in the week ending January 20 to $0.32/gallon, up from $0.20/gallon a week earlier.

- Corn prices for the week declined by around $0.13 week-on-week to average $6.86/bu.

- Meanwhile, finished ethanol prices moved up in the week ending January 20, landing at $2.19, compared to $2.13 last week.

Jan 25  - Brazil wheat making strides in global markets amid Russia-Ukraine conflict
Brazil is poised to register record wheat shipments for January as local suppliers continue to fill the void left by major exporters Russia and Ukraine because of the ongoing war, industry sources told Reuters. The combination of a bumper harvest and production hiccups in Argentina due to a drought also bolstered Brazilian exporters, particularly in Rio Grande do Sul, the country's biggest wheat producer, they said.

Jan 25  - Will fading La Nina boost prospects for the 2023 U.S. corn crop? - Braun
While La Nina’s predicted exit within the next couple months could bring relief to parched crop areas in the southern U.S. Plains and Argentina, weather implications for the upcoming U.S. corn crop are not as clear-cut. La Nina, which arises when surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal, may soon fade out, making way for average or even warmer conditions to form toward mid-2023. That mildly increases the chance of a bountiful U.S. corn crop, but a disaster cannot be ruled out.

Jan 24 - Indian wheat hits fresh record high on delay in stock release
Indian wheat prices hit a fresh record high on Monday, following a delay in releasing extra stocks by the government to boost supplies and calm the domestic market reeling from shortages triggered by last year's lower crop, dealers and farmers said. India, the world's second biggest producer of wheat, banned exports in May 2022 after a sudden rise in temperatures clipped output, even as exports picked up to meet the global shortfall triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 

Jan 24 - U.S. raises 'grave concerns' over Mexico's anti-GMO farm policies
U.S. farm and trade officials raised "grave concerns" over Mexico's agricultural biotechnology policies in meetings with their Mexican counterparts on Monday, as lingering disagreements threaten decades of booming corn trade between the neighbors. Washington's concerns center on the Mexican president's push to ban so-called biotech corn, or varieties developed with genetically modified organisms (GMOs), from entering Mexico if it is destined for human consumption. The United States accounts for most of Mexican corn imports.

Jan 23  - Weather could spell trouble for EU crops in months ahead: MARS

- The EU's crop monitoring service has warned that recent unusually warm weather could be storing up trouble for crops in the coming months, as much of the cold tolerance previously built up was lost, according to a monthly update. The January report published by Monitoring Agriculture Resources (MARS) showed winter crops and grasslands were in good condition across much of Europe, and so far, frost damage has been limited. A rapid increase of temperatures toward the end of the year with record-breaking New Year’s Eve temperatures (locally surpassing +20 °C) in eastern France, Germany, Poland and the alpine regions initiated a de-hardening period and melt snowpack over agricultural areas.

- While winter cereals in Russia, the Baltic countries, and Scandinavia are still fully to almost fully hardened, those in most other parts of Europe are currently only partially hardened. This de-hardening process leads to a higher vulnerability in case of new cold spells.

- Moreover, alternating freeze/thaw cycles can damage plants, thus reducing their vigour and negatively affecting spring regrowth. Mild winter conditions are also associated with high pest and disease survival rates, which could lead to increased pressure later in the season, the report notes. Warm temperatures also saw snowpacks in the Alps reach historic lows and If not restored, water availability for irrigation downstream will be problematic come spring.

- The weather forecast implies that weather conditions will be mainly influenced by transitioning large-scale atmospheric processes and a weakening La Nina. Much warmer-than-usual air temperatures are forecast for most of Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, and the Balkan Peninsula, while colder-than-usual daily air temperatures are expected in large parts of France.

Jan 23 - Malaysia's egg shortage sets Indian hatcheries on path for record exports
India is set to export a record 50 million eggs this month, boosted by sales to Malaysia, where there have been acute shortages as soaring feed prices caused by the Ukraine war forced many small-scale farmers to cut output, industry officials said. Middle Eastern countries, including Oman and Qatar, are the main buyers of eggs from India, but over the past few months, Indian hatcheries have received large orders from surprising quarters as output fell in some of the world's top suppliers. 

Jan 23 - Funds pad CBOT corn, soy longs on smaller U.S. crops and Argentine drought
Speculators cranked up bullish bets in Chicago-traded corn and soybeans last week as U.S. government data revealed smaller domestic crops than analysts expected, keeping supply scenarios tight through at least mid-year. Ongoing drought in Argentina also enticed fund buying last week in corn, soybeans and soybean meal, forcing another managed money record in the latter.

Jan 20  - Storms to bring rain to parched Argentine fields next week, says grains exchange
A storm front should bring moderate to abundant rainfall across most of Argentina's key agricultural area over the next week, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday, which could help farmers plant their fields after a historic drought. Lack of rainfall in Argentina, the world's largest exporter of soybean oil and meal and the third-largest exporter of corn, has slowed planting of its current soybean and corn crops and nearly halved the country's wheat output. 

Jan 20  - Palm prices seen falling 23% in 2023 as output rises, but Indonesia to keep supply tight - poll
Malaysian palm oil prices are set to fall for the first time in three years in 2023 amid a mild recovery in production, but will likely remain above pre-pandemic levels as Indonesian policies constrict global supplies, Reuters poll showed. Benchmark palm prices will average 3,800 ringgit a tonne in 2023, down 23% from last year's record average of 4,910 ringgit, according to the median estimate of a poll of 18 analysts and those in the industry.

Jan 20  - China bought less soy from Brazil and U.S. in 2022, more from Uruguay
China's soybean imports from the United States dropped 10% in 2022, customs data showed on Friday, reducing the United States' share of the world's top soybean market to less than a third. Total soybean imports by China last year dropped 5.6% to 91.08 million tonnes, due to high global prices and weaker demand earlier in the year.

Jan 20  - Egypt's GASC buys 50,000 tonnes of yellow corn in tender
Egypt's state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), on Thursday said it had bought 50,000 tonnes of Romanian corn in an international tender. The cargo was sold by Ameropa BV at a price of $339 a tonne on a cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) basis, traders said, adding that some offers were excluded because of their specifications.

Jan 19  - Ukraine seeks to expand corridor deal to metals, could slow grains pace (AgriCensus)

- The Ukrainian government has said it wants to expand the grain deal agreement, signed between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations, and add metal products to the list of goods that are allowed to be exported from the country's Black Sea ports. Building on the success of the existing corridor, which has seen millions of tonnes of corn, wheat, sunflower and other agricultural products being shipped, adding metal exports would be another major boost to the country’s economy which has been suffering the effects of a devastating war for ten months.
“We will focus on building more storage for agricultural goods, but what we need to do from a strategic point of view is to open sea ports. It’s not just about agriculture, it’s about steel,” Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko said in an interview given to Bloomberg during the international forum held in the Swiss resort of Davos.

- The metal industry used to be among the key strategic contributors to the Ukrainian economy, but it has been hit hard following the Russian invasion of the country, as the biggest producing facilities have been partly destroyed or occupied by Russian forces. Alongside that, metal products, just like grains, were mainly been exported through the Black Sea ports and as such, since the start of the war, the flow has switched to railways, trucks, and small ports consequently making the logistics markedly more expensive. Thus allowing the metals to be shipped from the Great Odesa ports - typically the three ports of Pivdennyi, Odesa and Chornomorsk - potentially can help minimize the logistic costs and increase the flow, generating bigger margins for the country.

- However, the suggestion has been met with a lukewarm response from the grain trade, who fear he expansion of the corridor to include metals could bring challenges. Grain trade representatives have said that - for now - they do not see how it can be done as it is harder to argue that metals exports are crucial to the health and wellbeing of the world population in the same way that grains have been. Alongside that, any agreement regarding changes to the grain deal will have to be discussed with all the parties involved, and therefore with Russia as well - a major competitor to Ukraine in the industry and a request that is unlikely to be met with much enthusiasm.
"It sounds like one of the wish lists, such that is unlikely to be realized. It is easier to put pressure on the fact that we are saving the world from hunger, but you can't say that with metals,” one local source said, capturing the mood of a range of opinions from among the sources Agricensus spoke to.

- Russia has mounted a steady campaign against the export corridor, complaining about its operation trying to manipulate world opinion by arguing that the corridor is mostly sending Ukrainian grain to European countries, rather than the developing world that needs access to reliable, cheap food supplies. Another potential challenge could also be fears of exacerbating a bottleneck for ships exiting the Black Sea, with every vessel using the grain corridor required to be inspected twice at Istanbul - once on the way in and again on the way out. With Ukrainian exports through Black Sea ports reaching 4 million mt per month as its best since the corridor opened, and with inspections causing delays at Istanbul since October as only three or four vessels have been inspected per day.
Any increase in vessels is likely to need an increase in either the number of teams inspecting the vessels, or the 4 million mt potential maximum capacity will have to be divided between agricultural and metal products, thus crimping the potential for grain exports.
"Without going much into details, it will worsen the grain flow as the corridor is a bottleneck," one trader said.
"If there was two incoming inspections per day, then the metal will squeeze the grain," a second local source said.

- That comes even with metal exports facing a significant reduction, with around 5 million mt exported by rail during January-October 2022 compared to 13 million mt a year ago including the volume moved to ports by rail for further export, according to Julia Bolotova, EU steel market reporter for Fastmarkets MB. But even that amount means an additional 300,000-500,000 mt per month could be taken from grain’s share of the current monthly flow - potentially a 12% reduction.

- It could also bring higher competition for rail transport options delivering to the country's ports, but alleviate pressure on rail connections with the EU. At the same time, there could be scope for metals to take more of a share from grains as the current pace of grain exports has been big enough to potentially clear out all the country's stocks before the new marketing year comes in.
As such, in general there could be space for additional volumes to supplement any slowdown in grains and keep the ports busy.
“It is enough for us to have even less than 3 million mt per month within the corridor to export all potential [stocks] we have,” one local source said.

Jan 19 - India's soymeal exports to jump as drought curbs Argentine supply
India's soymeal exports could more than double in the 2022/23 marketing year, as drought in top exporter Argentina lifted global prices, prompting buyers to turn to the south Asian country with cheaper rates, four industry officials told Reuters. The revival in the exports of the animal feed has boosted soybean crushing in India and the availability of soyoil, which could reduce imports of soyoil and palm oil by the world's biggest buyer in coming months. 

Jan 19 - French wheat export forecast raised on North Africa demand
Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday increased for a second consecutive month its forecast of French soft wheat exports outside the European Union this season, citing strong demand from North Africa. France, the EU's biggest wheat producer, is now expected to ship 10.6 million tonnes outside the bloc in 2022/23, against 10.3 million forecast in December and 21% above last season's level, the office said.

Jan 18 - FranceAgriMer raises export forecast for soft wheat outside the EU to 10.6m mt (AgriCensus)

- French state-backed farm agency FranceAgriMer raised its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the EU once again in its latest monthly outlook Wednesday, while revising exports to within the EU lower. FranceAgriMer raised forecast exports to countries outside the EU by 300,000 mt on last month to 10.6 million mt, which is 21% higher than last year, while it lowered its estimated exports again to EU member states by 90,000 mt to 6.64 million mt (down 17% y-o-y).

- France exported 7.5 million mt of wheat between July 1, 2022 and January 16, 2023, according to data received from the European Commission. FranceAgriMer had already raised it's export forecast for soft wheat last month, noting there had been a sharp increase in exports to Morocco and China. In a briefing to accompany the release of the monthly report, the agency noted that in addition to this, French wheat was now looking more competitive for sales into Algeria and Egypt. Overall wheat exports are expected at 17.63 million mt, up 2.5% from 2022/23.

- French soft wheat ending stocks are expected at 2.32 million mt, a decrease from the December estimate, which would put them 16% below the 2.77 million mt that was held last season. FranceAgriMer forecast for intra-EU barley exports saw a minimal decrease from last month’s figures, lowering by 15,000 mt to 3.04 million mt (up 8.1% y-o-y), similar exports outside the EU also decreased by 50,000 mt to 2.45 million mt (down 27.5% y-o-y).

- French corn exports in 2022/23 to the EU decreased slightly on month to just over 2.96 million mt, down 39.5% y-o-y, while expected exports to countries outside the EU went unchanged on the month, remaining at 360,000 mt (down 39% y-o-y). Overall corn exports are expected to fall on the year to 3.43 million (down 38.7% y-o-y) from its 2021 figure of 5.6 million mt.  

- French durum export estimates to the EU increased to 820,000 mt, while non-EU exports were unchanged at 110,000 mt. This reflects a reduction of 17.1% y-o-y from 989,000 mt for exports to the EU last year and an increase of 16.8% y-o-y from 94,000 mt for third countries.

Jan 18  - Brazil summer grain crop to outgrow storage capacity for first time in 20 years
Brazil's 2022/2023 summer grain production will outgrow total storage capacity for the first time in 20 years amid expectations of a record soybean harvest, according to government data obtained by Reuters from Conab, the food supply and statistics agency. Brazil will harvest a combined 189.5 million tonnes of soybeans, corn and rice in the summer, while it has total storage capacity for 187.9 million tonnes, the data shows.

Jan 18  - India contracts to export 5.6 mln tonnes of sugar this season

India has contracted to export about 5.6 million tonnes of sugar since the government said late last year that mills could ship up to 6.1 million tonnes of the sweetener by May, government, trade and industry sources said. Dealers have already shipped about 2.5 million tonnes of the total contracted quantity, said the sources, who asked not to be named because they are not authorised to talk to the media.

Jan 18  - Algeria buys milling wheat in tender - traders
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has bought milling wheat in an international tender which closed on Tuesday, European traders said in initial assessments. Initial purchases reported were around $334.50 a tonne cost and freight (c&f) included, they said. Estimates of tonnage bought ranged between 510,000 tonnes to 600,000 tonnes.

17 Jan  - German govt to proceed with curbs on crop-based biofuels: Minister (AgriCensus)

- Germany’s Federal Environment Minister Steffi Lemke on Tuesday said that she will soon introduce proposals to curb the use of crop-based biofuels in the country, which is the EU’s biggest member state in terms of fuel consumption and a major producer of ethanol and biodiesel from edible crops such as sugar beet, wheat and rapeseed. The comments from the minister, who is a member of the Green Party in the country’s centre-left three-party coalition with the Social Democrats and Free Democrats, will likely alarm the country’s agriculture and crop-based biofuels sectors just a week before producers and German policymakers gather in Berlin for a major industry conference.
“I would like us to increase the use of real biofuels from waste, from residues, from cooking oil. Here we still have potential and opportunities to ensure that the greenhouse gas quota in transport can be met. That is why we will introduce the legal basis for phasing out agrofuels from food and feed crops into the Cabinet as soon as possible,” Lemke told an agricultural conference organised by her ministry, known in Germany by the initials BMUV.

- Germany from the start of this year has already banned palm oil in biodiesel, a decision that had been made in 2021 by the previous government. Lemke said in her speech that the rise in prices for edible commodities such as wheat, corn and vegoils in the past year that had been worsened by the war in Ukraine was being exacerbated by environmental factors such as extreme weather and pollution, another reason why Germany needed a major rethink of its policies in agriculture and biofuels.
“The weaknesses of the existing agricultural and food system have become more apparent than ever before – especially in the hot droughts. The three major global ecological crises: climate crisis, species extinction, pollution crisis are now endangering the foundations of agriculture and our food,” Lemke continued in her speech.

- Lemke didn't refer to particular proposals in today's speech. Lemke and ministers for agriculture and foreign affairs in the second quarter last year raised the prospect that Germany would introduce a strict cap on the use of crop-based biofuels in the wake of food price inflation worsened by Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine and a blockade of grain shipments from Black Sea ports. Although that blockade was eventually lifted in the autumn following a deal brokered by the UN and Turkey, fears have persisted about global food security.

- Today's speech suggests BMUV is rekindling plans for a crop-based biofuels cap that appeared to go into hiatus in the second half of 2022, which was despite expectations last autumn from German biofuels lobbies and policy analysts that the cabinet would proceed with changes before the end of last year. A document drawn up by BMUV and widely circulated in May 2022 included proposals to slash the share of crop-based biofuels in the country’s fuel pool to 2.5% in 2023, down from a share of 4.4% expected for this year – a plan that drew a furious response from biofuels lobbies. That same document from BMUV also proposed that the share of crop-based biofuels will be further reduced after 2023 to zero by 2030, a move that would majorly draw down consumption of crop-based ethanol and biodiesel in Europe’s largest transport market.

- To help mitigate the impact of the lowered crop cap, “quantities of waste-based biofuels from used cooking oils and animal fats that are not recycled are slightly increased,” the May 2023 document recommended. And in details that were of major interest to suppliers of fuels, biofuels and traders of compliance credits related to transport, BMUV last May also proposed that for the years 2023 to 2026, the country’s GHG reduction quota “must be adjusted slightly downwards, i.e. it increases at a slightly slower rate in these years.” German lobbies say a crop cap is a decision that could be taken by the cabinet without the requirement for a vote in parliament, but that any mooted changes to the country's GHG reduction quota in transport would require the backing of German MPs.

Jan 17  - Brazil soy farmers to reap record crop driven by growth in area - Reuters poll
Brazilian soybean growers will harvest a record soy crop just below 153 million tonnes in the 2022/2023 cycle driven by a rise in planted area and favorable weather in most parts of the country, according to a Reuters poll on Monday. Though forecasters have cut output projections for southern Brazil due to a persistent drought in Rio Grande do Sul state, production increases in other parts of the world's biggest soybean supplier will offset losses there, poll data shows.

Jan 17  - Egypt’s GASC has sold around 300,000 T of wheat via new commodities exchange
Egypt's state grains buyer the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) has sold around 300,000 tonnes of wheat via the new Egyptian Mercantile Exchange since its November launch, the exchange head Ibrahim Ashmawy said on Monday. The wheat was mostly of Russian origin with some German wheat also sold, Ashmawy told Reuters.

Jan 16  - Egypt's GASC issues rare feed corn import tender for Feb shipment (AgriCensus)

- Egypt's state-backed import agency has issued a tender to buy corn in what is believed to be a first for the country, trade sources have told Agricensus. The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) issued the tender over the weekend with trade sources expecting it to close on January 19. The corn is expected to be sourced on a delivered price basis, with shipment from February 10-25, while the total volume sought by the agency is unknown at present

- Egypt is one of the world's biggest importers of wheat, with much of the volume handled by GASC. However, while the country is a significant importer of corn - expected to produce 7.4 million mt domestically and import 9.2 million mt according to USDA data - the volumes are rarely, if ever, handled through the state agency.

- Data from the Agricensus Export Dashboard shows around 30% of the country's corn imports have been sourced from Ukraine over the last decade, closely followed by Argentina (28.5%) and then Brazil (28.1%).

Jan 16  - Indonesia palm oil export curbs, biodiesel plans to hit world vegoil supplies
A move by top palm oil exporter Indonesia to restrict shipments and boost domestic biodiesel consumption is set to squeeze global vegetable oil supplies already undercut by lower output in Southeast Asia and Latin America. Edible oil buyers, including price-sensitive consumers in South Asia and Africa, will bear the brunt of the supply-side constraints that come just as demand is forecast to climb, with China easing COVID-19 controls and India boosting purchases.

Jan 16  - Unusually large trade misses in U.S. grains data tempered by demand cuts - Braun
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s January data dump reverted to its often-unpredictable nature on Thursday as analysts missed the mark on several key numbers, unlike their unusually strong year-ago performance. However, most of the surprising figures, many of which were smaller-than-expected and thus bullish, had some opposing factors that may ease the market’s response.

Jan 16  - Cautious China approves GMO alfalfa import after decade-long wait
China approved imports of eight genetically modified (GM) crops, permitting shipments of GM alfalfa for the first time after a decade-long wait, the country's agriculture ministry said on Friday. Global seed makers and the U.S. government welcomed the decision after Beijing's slow approval process disrupted grain exports and launches of crops that need clearance from China because it is one of the world's biggest agriculture markets.

Jan 14 - Turkey’s TMO buys 24k mt crude sunoil for Feb-Mar delivery ( AgriCensus )

- The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has bought 24,000 mt of sunflower oil for arrival between February 20 and March 20 in a tender that closed Friday, pending final confirmation, market sources have told Agricensus. All 24,000 mt of sunflower oil were booked from Turkey-based trading company AVES.

- AVES sold 6,000 mt of crude sunflower oil for the port of Tekirdag at a price level of $1,218.80/mt CFR, up 7% from the previous price at the end of December. The remaining 18,000 mt were purchased at $1,228.80/mt Mersin, Iskenderun EXW, just $10/mt below the price paid in the last tender. Four companies took part in the tender, while the offer from AVES was the most competitive.

- Since the beginning of the calendar year 2023, Turkey has booked almost 150,000 mt of sunflower oil for delivery in January-March, a record high for January, according to market sources based in Turkey. Turkish sources suggest this is related to the zeroing of import duties for sunflower seeds and sunflower oil, which came into force on January 1, 2023.

- So far in the 2022/23 season, Turkey has harvested a record sunflower seed crop, which according to market sources will exceed the level of the previous year by 25% and amount to 2 million mt.

Jun 13  - Wasde: USDA boosts Ukraine, EU wheat output, leaves Russia steady

- The USDA has boosted its production outlook for Ukraine and the European Union, while unexpectedly leaving Russian and Australian projections steady, leading to a small increase in global production and ending stock estimates. For the US wheat outlook, the January update to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) posted gains in supplies and domestic consumption, leaving exports unchanged, while ending stocks were reduced because of the uptick in domestic use. The world was expected to produce 781.31 million mt of wheat in 2022/23, up 720,000 mt from the December report.

- The USDA increased Ukraine’s production estimate to 21 million mt, up from 20.5 million mt last month, with the export outlook boosted from 12.5 million mt to 13 million mt. EU farmers are projected to produce 134.7 million mt, up from, 134.3 million mt seen in the December report. The department stubbornly refused to raise Russia’s production outlook from 91 million mt, ignoring data from Russia’s agriculture ministry that has already confirmed a wheat crop at 106 million mt in bunker weight and translates into around 102-103 million mt clean weight. Russian export and ending stock levels were also left unchanged at 43 million mt and 14.39 million mt, respectively. Australia also went unchanged, holding steady at 36.6 million mt, which is identical to the December forecast from the country’s agriculture ministry, but short of the 40-41 million mt range expected by local sources.

- Chicago wheat futures had been in the red for much of the day, but losses eased after the release of leaving March 2023 futures unchanged at 12:28 pm East Coast time. Ending stocks for 2022/23 were projected at 268.39 million mt, up from 267.33 million mt projected in December, and down from 276.82 million mt at the end of 2021/22. Analysts projected that the USDA would report that ending stocks for 2022/23 would stand at 268 million mt. Ending stocks for 2022/23 are projected at 268.39 million mt, up from 267.33 million mt projected in December, and down from 276.82 million mt at the end of 2021/22. Analysts projected that the USDA would report that ending stocks for 2022/23 would stand at 268 million mt.

- Global trade is expected to total 211.62 million mt, up by 770,000 mt from the December report. Consumption projections were boosted by 210,000 mt to 789.74 million mt, as higher feed and residual use in the US more than offset declines in Ukraine, according to the report.

US


- The USDA projects that the US will produce 1.65 billion bushels (44.9 million mt) in the 2022/23 marketing year, unchanged from last month’s report.
- Ending stockpiles were seen at 567 million bushels (15.43 million mt) at the end of the crop year, down from 571 million bushels (15.54 million mt) in the December Wasde, and lower than the projections of analysts surveyed by Agricensus who were looking for ending stocks of 580 million bushels (15.79 million mt).
- Beginning stockpiles were boosted to 698 million bushels (18.99 million mt), up from 669 million bushels (18.21 million mt) in the December report.  
“Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks,” the report said. The projected area planted stands at 45.7 million acres, while the area harvested was 35.5 million acres - unchanged from last month’s report. The yield per harvested acre average is 46.5 bpa, which is also the same as the figure cited in the December report.
- Exports are projected to total 775 million bushels (21.09 million mt), unchanged from the December estimate.

Jan 12 - Worst drought in decades sees Argentina exchange slash soy, corn harvest forecasts
Argentina's Rosario Grains exchange sharply cut its forecast for the 2022/23 soybean harvest to 37 million tonnes from a previous forecast of 49 million, it said on Wednesday, as the country faces its worst drought in 60 years. The exchange also slashed its 2022/23 corn harvest estimate to around 45 million tonnes, down from 55 million previously. 

Jan 12 - Narrow U.S. corn crop guesses may be biggest market threat on Thursday
Chicago corn futures are trading at decade highs for the time of year while soybeans are at their highest ever for the date, creating some vulnerability ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s data onslaught. The agency’s reports, due on Thursday at noon EST (1700 GMT), can cause wild swings in CBOT futures if industry analysts have incorrectly anticipated key numbers.

Jan 12  - US weekly ethanol production up but remains below 1mn b/d (AgriCensus)

- US weekly ethanol production rose by 99,000 barrels per day in the week ending January 6, according to new data from the Energy Information Administration. Total ethanol production across the US increased to 943,000 barrels per day (b/d) in the reporting week, up from 844,000 b/d a week earlier. The weekly total came in just below analyst predictions, which had forecasted a week-on-week increase of 115,000 thousand barrels to 959,000 b/d. The increase was driven entirely by higher weekly production in the US Midwest, which is home to over 90% of the country's ethanol production capacity.

- Over the week, full production equated to the consumption of 2.43 million mt of corn, up from 2.17 million mt a week earlier. Meanwhile, ethanol stockpiles declined by 644,000 barrels to 23.8 million barrels in the week ending January 6. The stockpile decline exceeded analyst expectations, which had called for a week-on-week reduction of 130,000 barrels to 24.3 million.

- Margins calculated through a model from Iowa State University showed that the estimated return over operating costs for the average Midwest-based plant rose in the week ending January 6 to $0.40/gallon, up from $0.05/gallon a week earlier. Corn prices for the week meanwhile rose by around $0.63 week-on-week to average $6.70/bu. Finished ethanol prices were also up in the week ending January 6, landing at $2.20, up from $2.01 a gallon a week earlier.

Jan 11 - Brutal drought in Argentina seen ending in coming months, says grains exchange
A drought that has parched Argentina's fields and slashed production of key cash crops is likely to break in coming months, though it could be March before rain and soil moisture levels fully return to normal, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BdeC) said on Tuesday. Argentina is one of the world's top food producers, but dry conditions over much of the past year have taken a toll on its key agricultural regions, delaying its soy and corn crops and halving wheat production this season. 

Jan 11 - India wheat harvest could hit record on higher planting area, favourable weather
India's wheat production is set to jump to a record after all-time high prices prompted farmers to expand planting areas with high-yielding varieties and good weather conditions, scientists and traders told Reuters. Higher wheat output could encourage India, the world's second-biggest producer of the grain, to consider lifting a ban on exports of the staple and help ease concerns over persistently high inflation in food prices.

Jan 11  - Quarterly US stocks set to decline, wheat planting favors soft red (AgriCensus)

- The USDA’s quarterly update of stocks, a key report the industry looks to through the year to gauge vital insights into consumption, exports and production, will be released alongside the Wasde on Thursday.

- US wheat stocks are expected to see a year-on-year contraction of 48 million bu (8.2 million mt), or 3.5%, to 1.33 billion bu (38 million mt) for December 1, 2022. Alongside stock data, the USDA will also release its first showing of the winter wheat plantings, with analysts broadly looking for an increase in the planted area and a slight skew towards soft red winter wheat over hard red. Overall, analysts are looking for winter wheat planted area to increase by 1.4 million acres to 34.7 million acres, up 4.2% year-on-year, with increases seen in soft red winter (4.4%) and white winter (2.8%) planted area.

- Soft red winter is expected to be planted on 6.86 million acres, with white wheat planted on 3.7 million acres. The area planed with hard red winter, however, is expected to contract slightly, slipping by 1.3% to 22.8 million acres, according to the poll.

- For corn, stock levels as of December 1, 2022, are expected to decline by 718 million bu (18.2 million mt) despite expectations that corn production could push higher when the Wasde report is released. Quarterly stocks for corn are projected to be reported at 10.93 billion bushels (277.48 million mt), compared to 11.64 billion bushels in 2021, according to analysts polled by Agricensus.

- Finally, soybean stocks are expected to hold stable with only a 9 million bu (228,612 mt) decline versus the same period of 2022, with analysts looking for stocks to weigh in at 3.14 billion bu (79.8 million mt).

Jan 10  - Brazil's soybean harvest off to slow start  - AgRural
Harvesting of Brazil's 2022/2023 soybean crop had reached 0.04% of the national planted area on Thursday last week, compared with 0.2% at the same time a year earlier, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday. The consultancy cited disruption to field work because of wet conditions in states including top soybean grower Mato Grosso.  

Jan 10  - USA, former wheat giant, posts a 40-year export low as demand sags  - Braun
Wheat exporters in the United States, formerly the world’s breadbasket, ended 2022 on the lowest note in over four decades as short supplies and cheaper overseas competition continued pushing U.S. wheat aside. The paltry shipment volumes are not necessarily disappointing considering expectations, and the new year may bring some better luck to exporters as U.S. supplies may build in 2023.

Jan 10  - Ukraine grain exports down 29.6% at 23.6 mln T so far in 2022/23
Ukraine has exported almost 23.6 million tonnes of grain so far in the 2022/23 season, down from the 33.5 million tonnes exported by the same stage of the previous season, agriculture ministry data showed on Monday. The volume included around 8.6 million tonnes of wheat, 13.3 million tonnes of corn and about 1.7 million tonnes of barley.

Jan 10  - US 2022 agri exports to China smash records, soybeans sales up 16% (AgriCensus)

- US agricultural exports to China in the 2022 fiscal year were $36.4 billion, surpassing the previous year’s record and making China the largest export market for the second consecutive year, the USDA has shown. Higher prices and strong demand helped drive US exports above the previous year’s record, despite lower volumes for most products, the US Department of Agriculture said in its latest International Agricultural Trade Report. Higher global commodity prices and China's robust buying were the main reasons for the record US export value to China in 2022, while the Trump-era Phase One trade agreement reduced or removed technical and non-technical barriers for several products, including poultry and beef.

- Soybeans accounted for nearly 50% of US agricultural exports to China at a record $16.4 billion, surpassing the previous year by 16%. China is the world’s largest soybean importer and processor, it consumes nearly 120 million tons of soybeans a year and imports nearly 60% of the global soybean trade.

- US corn exports to China in 2022 exceeded $4.8 billion, down from a record in FY 2021 but still the second-highest level in history. Despite volumes down by about 26%, the total value fell just 9 %t due to higher prices.

- Huge progress was made on sorghum sales, with US sorghum exports to China hitting a record $2.2 billion, nearly tripling over the last 2 years. China took about 90% of the total US sorghum export volume. In addition, sorghum prices increased above the previous year by more than $400 million. As a result, last year, sorghum proved attractive for Chinese feed producers as a competitively priced alternative to corn.

- By 2023, China will have accumulated 65% of the world’s corn and 53% of its wheat exports, according to forecasts from the USDA. However, with China home to around 20% of the global population, it only has about 7% of the world’s arable land. In addition, the area of China’s arable land is expected to decrease by 6% between 2010 and 2060, amid urbanization and pollution of soil and water. As a result, China relies more on imports, making it one of the world’s largest wheat importers and the main corn, barley, and oilseed importer.

Jan 09 - World food prices hit record high in 2022
A surge in the cost of most food commodities last year, as the disruption caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine raised concerns of shortages, sent the U.N. food agency's average price index to the highest level on record. The Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) food price index, which tracks international prices of the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 143.7 points in 2022, up 14.3% from 2021, and the highest since records started in 1990, the agency said on Friday.  

Jan 09 - Funds plant record CBOT soymeal bets; corn and soy longs remain intact
Money managers began 2023 with their most bullish ever stance in Chicago-traded soybean meal, and their heavier corn and soy selling in the year’s first session was outdone by ample buying in the final days of 2022. In the four-day week ended Jan. 3, money managers boosted their net long position in CBOT soybean meal futures and options to a record 141,877 contracts, up nearly 12,000 on the week, according to data published Friday by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Jan 09  - France's top grain export terminal eyes 14% rise in 2022/23 tonnage
Senalia, operator of France's largest grain export terminal, aims to load 4.6 million tonnes of cereals in the 2022/23 season to June 30, up nearly 14% from 2021/22, supported by Chinese demand and war disruption to Black Sea trade, it said on Friday. France is the European Union's biggest grain supplier and its brisk wheat shipments have contributed to higher overall EU wheat exports so far this season.

Jan 07  - Egypt's GASC starts year with fresh wheat tender for Feb shipment (AgriCensus)

- Egypt’s state grain importer is back in the market with an official tender for an additional February shipment of milling wheat, trade sources said Friday. The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) has issued a fresh tender set to close on January 10 looking for optional origin milling wheat for February 10-25 shipment.

- The payment is expected to be at sight again and the purchase was said to be financed by the World Bank.

- This comes just a week after GASC booked 200,000 mt of Russian wheat in its previous tender, paying $339/mt CFR for February 1-15 dates. GASC has already booked 4.1 million mt of wheat for delivery during 2022/23 MY, with almost all the amount booked in direct deals and the total figure slightly up compared to last year’s 3.85 million mt purchased by the same date.

Jan 06 - Australia set for record 42 mln T wheat crop as harvest wraps up
Australia wheat production is expected to rise to a record 42 million tonnes as results from the final phase of harvest show higher yields in the world's second-largest exporter of the grain, traders and an analyst said. Higher Australian wheat output comes at a time of stiff competition from the Black Sea region, where all-time high output in Russia is keeping the global market well supplied.  

Jan 06 - Will CBOT corn, soy break from recent trend of supportive Januarys
Chicago corn and soybean futures have had a rough start to the year after ending 2022 at multi-month highs, both shedding close to 4% so far this week, causing market-watchers to wonder if this will be the tone for 2023. January has been a supportive month for corn and soybeans in six of the last seven years, with strong gains in the last two years and 2020 marking the only losses.

Jan 06  - MPOB Preview: End-Dec stocks to hover near 2 million mt mark (AgriCensus)

- Analysts are expecting Malaysia’s end-December palm oil stock levels to fall further from the previous month and nearer to 2 million mt, after stocks dipped for the first time since May, according to surveys conducted by two news agencies ahead of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB)'s December palm oil data release next week. Industry surveys undertaken by news agencies Bloomberg and Reuters pegged month-on-month falls of between 4.4-5.3% in the end-December stock levels to 2.168-2.19 million mt. Other estimates from analysts at CIMB and Kenanga Research put stockpile levels lower at 1.978 million mt and 1.967 million mt respectively, or 13.6-14% lower on the month.  The surveys also pegged December production at around 3% lower to 1.63 million mt, while other production estimates by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) moved output for December slightly lower to 1.61 million mt.

- Malaysian palm oil stocks had hit a 36-month high of 2.4 million mt back in October and have subsequently started to taper amid lower output and steady demand from key export markets.

- December exports were also pegged at 1-2% lower against November at 1.49-1.5 million mt in the surveys, while earlier export estimates by cargo surveyors placed December exports at 1.46-1.55 million mt. A drop also would mark the first monthly decline in exports since August, with Malaysia having seen healthy export levels between September to November as palm oil remained attractively priced against other rival vegetable oils. Should the end-December stock levels touch around 2 million mt eventually, they would still place higher compared with 2020 and 2021, where end-December stockpiles stood at 1.27 million mt and 1.61 million mt respectively.

- Palm oil supply in the first quarter of the year is expected to tighten due to seasonally lower production as well as reduced availability from Indonesia after the government lowered its domestic market obligation (DMO) export quota, effectively trimming the volume of exports allowed to flow out. Indonesia is also expected to increase its palm oil consumption to support its B35 biodiesel blending mandate, which takes effect from February 1.

- Market participants are also watching for indications of demand recovery from China which would add further strength to prices, though worries remain over the country's continued battle against surging Covid cases. MPOB is expected to release the official supply and demand data on January 10.

Jan 05  - Brazil's corn exports reach record 43.1 million mt in 2022  - ANEC

- While in 2022 corn, wheat, and soymeal exports hit all-time highs, Brazil's main exporting product of soybeans reported a decline in shipments reflecting the crop loss from the past year, the country’s grain exporters’ association ANEC showed in its latest report, released on Wednesday.

- Brazil’s corn exports totaled 43.17 million mt in 2022, 109.5% up from last year’s 20.6 million mt, as production recovered from the summer crop losses and the interest in Brazil's grain increased amid worries about supply due to the war in Ukraine and following Chinese demand. Corn exports finished the year below Anec’s latest output forecast of 43.5 million mt, as December corn exports reached 5.8 million mt, below the previous 6.1 million mt export projection.

- Iran was the main destination for Brazil’s exports and was responsible for 12% of the volume, followed by Japan (12%) and Spain.
- Access to the Chinese market was the main focus this year and currently, 22 ships are tracked carrying corn with potential destination of China.
- The strong export pace is expected to continue in 2023 as January corn exports are projected at 4.3 million mt while in the same month in 2022 the country shipped 2.2 million mt.  

Soybean

- Brazil’s soybean exports were down 10.1% from the record 86.6 million mt in 2021 and totaled 77 million mt. The decline is a result of crop loss caused by drought in the past crop year, which limited the availability of the product.  The figure is lower than the association's most recent forecast of 78 million mt. December soybean exports reached 1.5 million mt, below the 1.7 million mt of the previous forecast and well down versus the 2.3 million mt shipped in December 2021.  

- China was the main destination for Brazil’s exports and was responsible for 70% of the volume. January soybean exports are estimated at 1.3 million, 1 million mt lower than in the same month in 2022. The harvest typically starts in late January and shipments start to gain momentum in the following month.

Soymeal

- Soymeal exports also hit record levels and reached 20.4 million mt, above 2021’s 16.8 million mt, and slightly down from Anec’s 20.5 million mt previous forecasts. Shipments were favored in the first half of the year as Argentina and US had issues concerning availability and logistics, respectively. Soymeal exports were expected to reach 1.5 million mt in December but ended the month at 1.3 million mt.

- Indonesia was Brazil’s main buyer (15%), followed by Thailand (13%) and Holland (11%). The first month of the year starts with exports projected at 1.3 million mt while in the same month in 2022 the country shipped 1.5 million mt

Wheat

- Wheat shipments reached their highest level as well and totaled 3.2 million mt, above the previous year’s 1.1 million mt, and within the previous forecasts. The historic mark was possible as Brazil harvested a record 9.5 million mt and the war in Ukraine led buyers to seek for alternative sources. Wheat exports were expected to reach 709,566 mt in December and ended the month slightly lower at 689,256 mt.

- Saudi Arabia bought 20% of the shipped volume, the same as Indonesia, while Sudan bought 10% of the total exports. January exports are projected at 280,715 mt while in the same month in 2022 the country shipped 695,953 mt.

Jan 05 - Argentine government says 80.1% of 2021/22 soybean crop sold so far
Argentine farmers have so far sold 80.1% of the 2021/22 soybean harvest, the country's agriculture ministry said on Wednesday, slightly behind the 80.5% sold during the same period in the previous cycle. Producers in Argentina, the world's top exporter of processed soy, sold 551,000 tonnes of the season's soybean in the week of Dec. 22-28, marking one of the highest weekly figures seen in recent months.  

Jan 05 - Ukraine sees speeding up inspections as key to Black Sea grain deal
Ukraine's efforts to increase exports under the Black Sea grain deal with Russia are currently focused on securing faster inspections of ships rather than including more ports in the initiative, a senior Ukrainian official said on Wednesday. Ukraine is a major global grain producer and exporter, but production and exports have fallen since Russia invaded the country last February and started blockading its seaports.

Jan 04  - Brazil's Lula government extends tax exemptions for biodiesel, ethanol (AgriCensus)

- The recently inaugurated Brazilian government of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has revealed that a federal tax exemption for fuels including biodiesel and ethanol will be extended. The measure, signed by the president, was published on Monday by the country's official gazette and extends the tax exemption for diesel and biodiesel for a duration of one year, while a gasoline and ethanol tax exemption will last for two months. The former government of Jair Bolsonaro had, earlier this year, passed a tax reduction bill applying to fuel including gasoline, diesel, and ethanol in an attempt to gain popularity ahead of the country's October general election. Following Lula's win at the end of October, however, there has been uncertainty in the market over the past few days as to whether or not the reductions would be extended.

- Meanwhile for imports, the government revealed at the end of December that it was also further extending its suspension of the country's import tariff on ethanol. The suspension of the import tariff on ethanol will now last until at least the end of the month, according to Brazil's ministry of finance website. This extended the suspension announced in March 2022 of tariffs on US ethanol and several other products until the end of last year, Agricensus understands.

- The extension was welcomed by US biofuels lobby the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA), which called the extension "a positive first step toward a permanent resolution and it sends a favorable signal to the marketplace."
"As we look ahead to 2023, we stand ready to work with incoming President Lula da Silva and his administration to restore free and fair ethanol trade between our nations," RFA president and CEO Geoff Cooper said.

- Brazil has imported 1.7 million mt of ethanol in the first eleven months of 2021, with South Korea, the Netherlands, and the US the key suppliers responsible for about 80% of the total.

Jan 04 - Top palm oil buyer India's Dec imports jump 94% y/y on discounts
India's palm oil imports in December jumped 94% from a year earlier to a record high for the month as palm oil's higher discount to rival vegetable oils led refiners to raise purchases during the seasonally weak winter period, five dealers said. Higher imports by India, the world's biggest palm oil buyer, would help top producers Indonesia and Malaysia cut their inventories and support benchmark palm oil prices, which are trading near their highest levels in five weeks. 

Jan 04 - Argentina's soy, corn may hinge on La Nina's exit after dry 2022
Recent rainfall across Argentina, the world’s leading soybean meal exporter and key corn supplier, has been the scarcest in over three decades, keeping the pressure on struggling crops. Argentina's soybeans and corn are still in the earlier stages of their seasons, behind normal development as the La Nina-induced drought slowed planting.

Jan 03  - Sovecon raises 2022/23 Russian wheat export forecast
Sovecon, a leading Black Sea agricultural markets research firm focused on Russia and Ukraine, has increased its 2022/23 Russian wheat export forecast by 0.2 million tonnes to 44.1 million tonnes, it said on Friday. Sovecon expects record or near-record monthly export volumes in the second half of the July-June season.  

Jan 03  - Funds end 2022 upbeat in CBOT soy complex, mixed on grains  - Braun
Speculators finished 2022 on a less bullish note across Chicago grains and oilseeds than in the previous two years and were far less enthused with corn and wheat, though their optimism in the soy complex is stronger than a year ago. Ongoing drought in top soybean meal exporter Argentina lifted money managers’ net long position in CBOT soybean meal futures and options to near record levels as of Dec. 27, marking funds’ fifth consecutive week of buying.

Dec 23 - Heavy rains forecast to bring first relief to Argentina's dry fields
Abundant rains will for the first time this cycle bring relief to Argentina's parched farming heartland in the coming days, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said on Thursday, as a historic drought has prevented many farmers from planting their fields. The lack of rainfall in Argentina, the world's largest exporter of soybean oil and meal and the third-largest exporter of corn, is slowing the planting of the current soybean crop and has slashed forecasts for the country's wheat harvest. 

Dec 23 - India revises gas procurement rules for fertiliser firms to cut costs
India has revised the gas procurement policy for fertiliser companies, allowing them to buy about a fifth of their monthly needs through the domestic spot market to help the government cut its subsidy bill, two government officials said. The federal government provides financial support for domestic fertiliser sales at rates below the market to insulate farmers from high prices and to contain inflation.

Dec 23 - World's third biggest wheat producer imports Australian ASW (AgriCensus)

- A handy-sized parcel of Australian standard white wheat (ASW) was said to have been traded into India - the world's third largest wheat producer - and is expected to be re-exported to Bangladesh and other Asian destinations, trade sources have told Agricensus Thursday. The Indian conglomerate ITC was said to be the buyer, paying around $414/mt CFR India for wheat with shipment between February 1-15 from Australia. Traders suggested that the wheat could be intended to be processed and re-exported as flour, as regular wheat imports into India typically attract a 40% import tax. Also, trade sources said that there had been other enquiries from buyers looking for Australian wheat to import into India recently, but warned that it was unlikely to be a big outlet for a huge Australian crop.

- At the same time, market sources also expressed concerns about the price level, given that current FOB Australia levels for February loading ASW 9% are at $325-330/mt. Only on Wednesday, Australian feed wheat was heard traded into Thailand for the February-March period at $343/mt CFR, while freight levels for eastern Indian ports might not be that different to freight levels for wheat into Thailand.
“$414/mt CFR is like $50/mt higher than a replacement from Australia today, ASW is also not really the quality India would look for,” one trader told Agricensus, commenting in the unusual nature of the rumoured trade.

- Meanwhile, the domestic price for Indian milling wheat was said to be around INR27,000, which is equivalent to around $325/mt. India is the third-largest wheat producer in the world and was aiming to become a significant wheat exporter in the region after increasing its exports to a record 10.5 million mt in the 2020/21 marketing year, amid a freight and price advantage. However, the plan failed in the 2021/22 marketing year, after worries over the final size of the crop and amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine forced wheat prices higher, leading to a ban on exports back in April. As the war unfolded, Ukraine and the Black Sea region was considered too risky for many buyers to deal with, forcing many to switch to India and causing significant demand to push domestic prices higher as exporters competed sharply with the domestic market. Moreover, domestic market prices have remained firm in India even after the ban was implemented, and trade sources said that the only possible way to lower prices for the government is to release its stocks.

- However, at the same time, stock levels were said to be the lowest in the last 6 years, as the government was not able to compete with exporters by the time the purchases were done and were unable to build sufficient reserves to control prices.

Dec 22 - Hybrid wheat hitting U.S. fields as war, climate threaten global food supplies
Global seed maker Syngenta will release a new type of wheat developed with complex cross-breeding techniques in the United States next year, beating out rival companies that are also trying to develop higher yielding wheat at a time of diminishing global grain supplies. The hybrid wheat, which combines positive traits from two parent plants, arrives after severe weather slashed grain harvests and the Ukraine war disrupted shipments to hungry importers, sending prices to record highs this spring. 

Dec 22 - India extends halt on futures trade in key farm commodities by a year
India's market regulator extended the suspension of trading in derivative contracts of key farm commodities by a year as the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils, and a major producer of wheat and rice, tries to tame food inflation. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) had last year ordered a year-long suspension of futures trading in key farm commodities, a dramatic step since allowing futures trading in 2003.

Dec 22  - Russian corn, sunflower crops hit after harvest delays (Agricensus)

- Russian farmers continued their efforts in harvesting grains and oilseeds in the week up to December 20, after work has been delayed by unfavorable weather, a regular update from the country's agriculture ministry has shown Wednesday. This year, some regions have lagged behind the fieldwork plan due to rainfall during late-running crop harvesting, while even today the weather still makes it difficult to catch up, as some regions are hit by rain, snow or ice. Preliminary estimates of the oilseed crop in Russia have taken a downward course due to bad weather in most regions of the country. Local experts say that farmers may lose a substantial amount of sunflower production, and rains will still affect the quality of crops left in the fields.

- But despite this, the forecasts of the gross harvest of sunflowers remain above the level of last year and, most likely, will deliver a bigger harvest.
"I think we will collect less than originally planned. Everyone hoped for 16.5-17 million mt - there were higher estimates, but most likely it will be 16 million mt," vice president of the Russian Grain Union, Alexander Korbut, said.

- As for the quality, in some regions, seed germination and high humidity are recorded, with seed germination leading to a loss of quality and a decrease in oil content, which leads to inevitable losses in crop volume. Also, there are problems with drying – farmers offer to take sunflower seeds right from under the harvester in a bid to avoid additional costs, delay, and efforts, but this is a potentially risky operation for processors. The sunflower harvest has advanced by another 2.5 percentage points with 86% of the plan now completed, amounting to 8.6 million ha and 15.5 million mt, while the average yield also stands at 9% above the previous year's figures at 1.79 mt/ha.

- As for corn, the situation is much the same, with yields showing a strong increase from 5.5 mt/ha to 6 mt/ha, although the current pace means the harvest is 2.3 million mt behind the volume collected at the same point of 2021.  That is down to weather delays, which have pushed the harvest out of its typical window and into a less supportive period, despite improved yields. In the spring, the harvest is expected to continue, but product is expected to face a drop in quality as prevailing weather outlooks offer little hope of recovery. The corn harvest progress has also increased by 3 percentage points through the past week to 80% of the plan completed on 2.27 million ha, with 13.7 million mt already in the bins. However, a large amount of unharvested corn is likely to be exposed to snow as the winter period settles in.

- Finally, the soybean harvest has been slower at the final stretch, with one percentage point of progress seen and field works completed on 95% of the plan – yielding 6.28 million mt from 3.3 million ha in the bins.

Sowing

- Russian winter cereal planting has stalled with 17.7 million hectares planted as of December 20, which is less by 3.8% than last year, when 18.4 million ha had been planted at the same time.
- The government also plans to reduce the area under wheat, which equates to 88% of the total winter sowing program, and the forecast for the next year is likely to be reduced in a bid to maintain price balance and stabilize the domestic market, as well as to realize this year's record harvest.
- Winter wheat crops go into the dormant phase in most of the country and are predominantly almost fully hardened.
- In most of the territory of Russia, meteorological conditions for the wintering of winter crops will be generally satisfactory.

Dec 21  - China’s Nov soybean imports from Argentina jump on ‘soy dollar’ policy (AgriCensus)

- China’s soybean imports from Argentina in November jumped by 17.8% against a year ago, data from China’s General Administration of Customs (CGAC) showed on Tuesday. Soybean imports from Argentina came in at 1.15 million mt in November, significantly higher than October’s 160,987 mt amid China’s buying spree in September and October where offers for soybeans of Argentine origin were significantly cheaper than competitors Brazil and US. The surge came on the back of attractive prices from the South American producer as a result of its Export Increase Programme, or the so called ‘soy dollar’ instrument.

- China – the world’s largest soybean buyer – stepped up its buying from Argentina after the Argentine government introduced its soy dollar policy – a temporary stimulus measure to encourage farmer selling by guaranteeing an improved exchange rate for soybean producers. The increase in buying from Argentina eroded the share of its neighbour Brazil, whose volumes to China fell in November by 9.3% against October to 2.54 million mt. On a year-on-year basis, soybean imports from Brazil also fell by 32.4%.

- Meanwhile, imports from the US also rose in November to 3.38 million mt, a jump from October’s 773,167 mt but still lower compared to a year ago by 7%. Total soybean imports in November came in at 7.35 million mt, up 77.5% from October’s 4.14 million mt but 14% lower against the same period last year, as slower cargo loading and longer clearance times at customs resulted in lower-than-expected arrivals in November.

- As such, soybean cargoes are expected to increase further in December, with China’s National Grain and Oil Information Center (CNGOIC) expecting imports to hit around 10 million mt this month.

Dec 21 - China's November soybean imports from U.S. fall 7%
China's November soybean imports from the United States fell 6.9% from a year earlier, data showed on Tuesday, after low U.S. river levels slowed shipping of beans to ports for export. The world's biggest soybean buyer, China, imported 3.38 million tonnes of the oilseed from the United States last month, down from 3.63 million tonnes a year earlier, according to the General Administration of Customs. 

Dec 21 - Mexico says U.S. 'satisfied' with GM corn ban postponement
Mexico's decision to postpone a planned ban of genetically modified (GM) corn purchases from the United States until 2025 was deemed satisfactory by the U.S. government, Agriculture Minister Victor Villalobos said on Tuesday. The neighboring countries have been at loggerheads over the Mexican decree, issued in 2020, that would phase out imports of GM corn and the herbicide glyphosate by 2024.

Dec 20 - India set to offer wheat to flour millers, biscuit makers to tame prices
India is set to offer 2 to 3 million tonnes of wheat to bulk consumers such as flour millers and biscuit makers as part of efforts to cool record high prices, two government sources said, even as state reserves have dropped to the lowest in six years. Wheat prices have surged in India this year after a sudden rise in temperatures hit crop yields and output.  

Dec 20 - Brazilian farmers clear land in Matopiba frontier for soy, group says
Farmers in Brazil have cleared land to grow soy in the new agricultural frontier known as Matopiba, according to data from Abiove, an oilseed lobby group representing global trade firms like Cargill and Bunge. In other parts of the South American country's Cerrado savanna, soybean expansion was mainly driven by conversion of degraded pastureland into areas to grow crops, the data from the Brazil-based group shows.

Dec 20  - India’s Nov oilmeal exports jump 150% y-o-y; soymeal exports up 282% ( AgriCensus )

- India’s oilmeal exports in November rose by 150% on the year and 91% against the previous month to 407,193 mt, the second highest level seen in the current 2022/23 financial year which runs from April-March, the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) said in a release Monday. The firm increase came on the back of a strong performance seen in soymeal exports, which reached 164,075 mt in November, 282% more than a year ago and more than 300% against October’s volume of 40,196 mt.

- Soymeal exports were seen as more attractive against selling domestically, as local soymeal prices fell to INR42,000/mt ($508/mt) following the drop in soybean prices. Indian soymeal also became more competitive against international competitors such as Brazil, with Brazil soymeal being quoted at $588/mt ex-Rotterdam versus Indian soymeal at $535/mt ex-Kandla as of December 15. The lower than expected Argentine soybean crop and crushing pace is also expected to see more supply being offered from other soymeal exporters such as US, Brazil and India at better prices, SEA noted.

- The association added that the deprecation of the Indian Rupee (making Indian exports cheaper), proximity to destination markets and the ability to sell in smaller lots to major consumers in Southeast Asia as well as a preference for non-genetically modified (GMO) soymeal from certain buyers in US and Europe helped to uplift soymeal demand in November.

- India’s rapemeal exports in November also rose by more than 200% on the year and 36.9% higher than October to 134,952 mt, with total rapemeal exports in the first eight months of FY22/23 coming to 1.48 million mt – a record high. The level exceeded the previous high of 1.25 million mt seen in 2011/12 marketing year.
“Currently India is the most competitive supplier of rapeseed meal to South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand and other Far East countries at $255/mt FOB India, against Hamburg ex-mill at $368/mt,” SEA said.

- For the first eight months of the 2022/23 season, India has exported 2.39 million mt of oilmeal, 50% more compared to the same period in the previous year. South Korea, Vietnam and Thailand remain major buyers of Indian oilmeal, with South Korea importing 603,686 mt of meal between April-November 2022, 47.8% more than a year ago – consisting of 420,776 mt of rapemeal, 161,073 mt of castorseed meal and 21,837 mt of soymeal. For the same period, Vietnam imported 567,362 mt of oilmeal – 49.7% more than last year – while Thailand’s oilmeal imports from India were at 433,961 mt – a 208% jump from the previous year.

Dec 19  - ADM closes some grain facilities in North Dakota due to winter storm
Global grain trader Archer Daniels Midland Co has closed "a few" grain elevators and edible bean facilities in North Dakota due to weather-related travel concerns, a company spokesperson said in an email statement to Reuters on Friday. A major winter storm pounded the heart of the United States earlier this week, bringing heavy snow and freezing rain to the Northern Plains and spawning thunderstorms and destructive tornadoes in the South.

Dec 19  - Palm oil to trade between 3,500-5000 rgt/T until May- analyst Mistry
Malaysian palm oil is expected to trade at between 3,500 and 5,000 ringgit per tonne from now until the end of May as stocks in the commodity's top two producer countries deplete, leading industry analyst Dorab Mistry said. Benchmark palm oil contract for March delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed at 3,917 ringgit ($885.80) per tonne on Friday.

Dec 19  - Russian-annexed Crimea showers Syria with wheat, Ukraine cries foul
Using a low-profile fleet of ships under U.S. sanctions, Syria has this year sharply increased wheat imports from the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea that Russia annexed from Ukraine, a sign of tightening economic ties between two allies shunned by the West.  Wheat sent to Syria from the Black Sea port of Sevastopol in Crimea increased 17-fold this year to just over 500,000 tonnes, previously unreported Refinitiv shipping data shows, to make up nearly a third of the country's total imports of the grain.

Dec 16  - Russia raises wheat, barley export taxes, cuts corn to zero (AgriCensus)

- Russia has increased its wheat and barley export taxes for the December 21-27 period, while the corn tax was cut back to zero, an official notice from the country's agriculture ministry said Friday.
- The export tariff for wheat was revised up by RUB190.40/mt to RUB3,333.80/mt, equating to $51.40/mt, as the seven-day average index published by the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) firmed by just $1/mt to $314.40/mt.
- Physical market prices continued to soften during the week, with selling ideas on a FOB Novorossiysk, Taman, Tuapse, Kavkaz (NTTK) basis heard in the price range of $310-311/mt for December-January and at $314/mt for February dates.
- The barley tax gained RUB83.80/mt to RUB2,686.90/mt, with the US dollar equivalent almost unchanged at $41.40/mt according to the official exchange rate, despite the weekly average index losing $1.10/mt and reported at $281.80/mt.
- Finally, the corn export tariff was cut back to zero from last week’s RUB78.20/mt, with the average index reported at $218.50/mt, down $6.40/mt.

- In order to maintain the competitiveness of exporters in the global market, the Russian government shifted the tax formula used to regulate exports to a calculation based on the national currency at the beginning of the 2022/23 marketing year.

Dec 16  - Algeria's OAIC buys 540k wheat, pays $7/mt less for Feb shipment (AgriCensus)

- Algeria’s state-backed grain importing agency has booked up to 540,000 mt of milling wheat in a tender that closed Wednesday and paid around $7/mt less than at its previous tender, trade sources have told Agricensus. Office Algerien Interprofessional des Cereales (OAIC) has paid around $348-349/mt CFR for whole February delivery after booking the volume.

- Trade sources expected that the bulk of the volume will be sourced from the EU Black Sea, Russia, and Ukraine, but also some could still be supplied from France. However, at the current agreed price levels, it looks difficult to supply from France even with a potential freight advantage. France and Romania/Bulgaria typically have a freight advantage which can mean they are competitive even with FOB prices at much higher levels compared to other Black Sea countries.

- Freight levels from France into Algeria were heard in the $22-26/mt range, compared with freight ideas from Ukraine into Algeria heard at around $60-62/mt. However, some sellers in Ukraine are said to be offering wheat with a huge discount in a bid to remain competitive, meaning the lowest offer for 11.5% was heard in the market at $275/mt FOB POC.

- The breakdown of the sellers that are believed to have sold to Algeria was said to include Viterra with the lion’s share of 180,000 mt, Cargill selling 120,000 mt, and Sierentz and Cam Negoce selling 60,000 mt. Also, Casillo, Louis Dreyfus, Lecureur and Avere secured 30,000 mt each.

- At its previous tender, which closed December 1, OAIC booked at least 420,000 mt of milling wheat for January shipment paying $355.50/mt CFR on average.
- This recent purchase also pushed the wheat volume booked by Algeria to around 4 million mt for delivery during the 2022/23 marketing year, according to the Agricensus Tender Dashboard, with 2.05 million mt already supplied from the EU (mostly France) and 823,000 mt from Russia.
- Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has estimated Algeria's wheat buying this year would reach 8.2 million mt.

Dec 16 - U.S. announces $2.5 billion in food assistance for Africa
U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday announced billions of dollars in additional humanitarian assistance to address acute food insecurity in Africa, which is facing a bigger and more complex food crisis than ever before. The United States pledged an additional $2.5 billion in emergency assistance and medium- to long-term food security assistance for resilient African food systems and supply markets, the White House said in a statement. 

Dec 16 - Argentine soybean planting still challenged by drought
Rainfall over recent days has not been enough for successful planting of soybeans after an extended drought in Argentina's core agricultural areas, the Buenos Aires grains exchange (BdeC) said on Thursday. Argentina is the world's leading exporter of processed soy, but its usually green Pampas plains are being hit by a historic drought that is preventing many farmers from planting their fields.

Dec 15  - Gradual increase in Sri Lankan coconut prices due to supply shortage (IHSmarkit)

- Pests are hitting domestic palm trees
- Record prices for fertilisers
- Processors aim to resume imports of Indonesian coconuts

- Fresh coconut prices have reached a record of LKR76.4/coconut ($0.20/coconut) on the auction held in Kuliyapiitya (Sri Lanka) on 8 December, 20% more month-on-month and 36% more year-on-year, due to the combination of high fertiliser prices and supply shortage as a consequence of pests hitting Sri Lanka palms.

- Domestic processors have asked the government to allow imports of Indonesian raw coconuts, banned in recent years. Prices for fresh and desiccated coconut softened due to the Sri Lankan rupee devaluation against the US dollar in H1 2022. Fresh coconut prices hit rock bottom at LKR46.2/coconut on 7 July, starting a gradual recovery. Meanwhile, desiccated coconut prices have been stabilised at $2,750/tonne fob in 2022, far from $3,150/tonne reached in December 2021, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

- The domestic fresh crop is around 3 billion coconuts on average, processors purchasing around 1.2 billion nuts for products specialised in exports such as desiccated coconut and coconut milk, according to the Sri Lankan Coconut Development Board. Most growers are small farmers who cannot import pesticides, using urgent remedies such as fires under leaves, which may damage trees and coconuts.

Dec 15  - Africa's food crisis is the biggest yet – five reasons why
In October, Nadifa Abdi Isak brought her malnourished daughters to hospital in Mogadishu. That day, a nurse said, 42 other children had already been checked into the emergency unit, ravaged by hunger. There were 57 the day before that. Staff at the Benadir maternity and paediatric hospital said admissions of malnourished children have more than doubled their patient numbers over the past year. They are now treating over 1,000 emergency cases each month.

Dec 15  - Argentine grains exchange cuts wheat forecast 3% on drought
A major Argentine grains exchange cut its wheat production forecast for the 2022/23 season by about 3% on Wednesday, after the crops suffered in drought and late-season frosts during the start of the southern hemisphere spring. The Rosario Grains Exchange sees the wheat harvest at around 11.5 million tonnes, down from a previous estimate of 11.8 million tonnes.

Dec 15  - Algeria buys about 500,000 tonnes wheat in tender - traders
Algeria's state grains agency OAIC has bought about 500,000 tonnes of milling wheat in an international tender which closed on Wednesday, European traders estimated. Initial purchases reported were around $348 to $349 a tonne cost and freight (c&f) included, they said.

Dec 15  - Black Sea wheat contract marks first trade since June (AgriCensus)

- The Black Sea wheat futures contract (BSW) - listed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as a risk management tool for the world's biggest wheat exporting region - reported its first trade on Tuesday after half a year without any activity, trade sources have told Agricensus Wednesday. The move was seen as a positive sign that showed increasing interest from market traders in managing their risk as market dynamics have became more predictable following huge volatility after Russia invaded neighbouring Ukraine.

- The BSW March contract was traded at $313/mt for 5,000 mt, the first trade since late June when the BSW July contract was heard traded at $387/mt for 300 mt and at $387.50/mt for 5,000 mt. At the same time in June, the August contract was heard traded at $381/mt for 5,000 mt and $382/mt for 500 mt.
“Participants are restarting to express their interest in the swap as physical prices are getting more transparent in the Black Sea region and as Russian wheat is setting the tone, in terms of pricing,” a futures broker said.

- Also, open interest for the contract was shown at 300 on Tuesday, with 200 for the December contract and 100 for March. That also comes along with physical Russian wheat prices starting to be shown in the market, not only for very prompt spot loading windows, but also for later, deferred dates, such as February. That level of detail in the physical market was almost non-existent just a few months earlier. It could prove to be another beneficiary of the grain corridor and increased acceptance of the current dynamics, despite the ongoing war and sanctions that are affecitng a number of Russian banks.

- The industry appears to have found ways to deal with some of the obstacles that have faced the sector, while the origin remains the cheapest option worldwide - particularly in the face of a record-breaking 100 million mt wheat harvest in Russia. As such, recent months have reported a recovery in wheat export volumes from Russia to pre-war levels, or even higher levels, with over 4.4 million mt of wheat exported in November.

- Beyond the war, Russia's export tax system has also made it very difficult for traders to take positions on market direction, as a weekly update to the tax level means exporters have no idea what levy they could be facing when the contract is due to be executed. That has focused trading into prompt months, but a planned change to the rule governing the export tax calculation is likely to mean that the tax will be calculated on the day of contract registration on the Moscow Exchnage, rather than the day of customs clearance. That should give exporters greater understanding of the tax they will face and make it easier for them to plan the export trade.

- Meanwhile, the Ukrainian market remains unclear, as inspections continue  to face delays and it is still difficult to trade, as the waiting times and vessel availabilities have to be checked before they can be offered to the buyer. That can create a wide range of price ideas and deter potential buyers.

- The CME-listed contract, which was a breakthrough in agricultural risk management tools when it launched back in 2017, has been a key part of providing hedging and risk management in an otherwise opaque but increasingly significant production region. The contract settles against values published by price reporting agency S&P Global Market Intelligence, but since Russia imposed export duties and then started the war in Ukraine on February 24, interest in the contract has declined sharply.

Dec 14  - Russian plans to lower wheat planting in 2023/24, targets 80-85m mt (AgriCensus)

- Russia is planning to lower the area planted with wheat in 2023/24 to stabilize the domestic market and prices, although the total sown area is still expected to be higher than in the current year, an official note on the agriculture ministry website showed Tuesday. The government believes the area planted with wheat should be reduced by half a million hectares (ha) for the next campaign. In 2022 around 29.5 million ha were planted with wheat, while a record 105.7 million mt were harvested from 29.2 million ha so far.

- The decision also comes as winter wheat planting for the current season has been already finished on 15.6 million ha.
“This is necessary to maintain the balance of prices and stabilize the domestic market in the interests of all participants, as well as to realize the record harvest of the current year," agriculture minister Dmitry Patrushev said during a governmental meeting.
"The target for wheat for next year is 80-85 million mt,” he added.

- Russia plans to increase the area sown with spring barley, meanwhile, by 400,000 ha and that with legumes, especially peas, by at least 125,000 ha, in order to balance crop rotation stability.
Patrushev also said an increase in the soybean planted area was expected, without giving details, while the area planted with sunseeds is expected to reach at least 9.8 million ha, compared to 10 million ha sown in 2022. The total sowing area is expected to increase by 50,000 ha to a total of 82 million ha, while the structure of the sowing areas will be only finalized and approved on December 20, according to the statement.

Harvest
- Presently, Russia continues to harvest grains and oilseeds for the current season, as harvest work has been delayed by unfavorable weather, such as rain in some regions or snow and ice in others.
- The corn harvest progress has progressed by around 7 percentage points through the past week to almost 77% of the plan completed on 2.2 million ha, with 13.2 million mt already in the bins. The yield remains better than last year at almost 6 mt/ha.
- The sunflower harvest has also advanced by another 6 percentage points with 83.5% of the plan completed, which amounts to 8.4 million ha and 15.1 million mt.
- The soybean harvest meanwhile has been very slow, with only a little progress seen and field works completed on 94% of the plan – yielding 6.2 million mt from 3.2 million ha in the bins.
- The rapeseed harvest now stands at 96% complete on 2.2 million ha, amounting to 4.7 million mt harvested, almost 58% up from last year’s result at the same time of the year.

Dec 14 - Ukraine corn crop plunge balanced by huge stocks, aiding exports for now
The precariousness of Ukraine’s export situation resurfaced last weekend as Russian attacks on energy infrastructure around Ukraine’s busiest port of Odesa suspended grain loadings. But Ukraine, a major exporter of corn, wheat and sunflower oil, has shipped products perhaps more efficiently than many market-watchers expected, allowing export estimates to drift higher even with disappointing harvest volumes. 

Dec 14 - Food inflation: Tight grain, oilseed supplies to keep prices elevated
Drought or too much rain, the war in Ukraine and high energy costs look set to curb global farm production again next year, tightening supplies, even as high prices encourage farmers to boost planting. Production of staples such as rice and wheat is unlikely to replenish depleted inventories, at least in the first half of 2023, while crops producing edible oils are suffering from adverse weather in Latin America and Southeast Asia.

Dec 13  - Argentina increases WMP shipments to Brazil (IHSmarkit)

- In October, volumes of milk powders to Brazil increased 146.3% y/y
- A drop in volumes to Algeria somewhat offset this rise
- In October Argentina produced 1,114.2 million litres

- In October milk production in Argentina was steady on the year. Volumes totalled 1,114.2 million litres. This is a 0.2% y/y decline and a 6.7% rise compared to the five-year average. Argentina had been the only major producer to keep milk production volumes above year-ago levels through most of the past 18 months, in contrast to many other major milk-producing nations.
- Production is at risk of erosion moving forwards. La Nina weather patterns continue to limit yields and are expected to continue to do so through Q1 2023. A continued drought has pressured crop productivity in South America which has pressured milk cost of production. There is an expectation of costs on farm to increase.
- During October Argentina’s milk powder and concentrate, exports increased 19.3% y/y, to 17,400 tonnes. Brazil received 8,000 tonnes a 146.3% y/y increase. Meanwhile, volumes to Algeria contracted 20.4% y/y, to 7,900 tonnes. This is a similar trend to what has been recorded since July. Just over 90% of Argentina’s milk powder and concentrate exports have been of WMP.

- Other headline trends in Argentina’s dairy product exports for October:

    Cheese and curd volumes up 5.9% y/y, 5,500 tonnes
    Whey and similar products up 5.0% y/y, to 3,700 tonnes
    Butter and other fats up 1.4% y/y, to 1,900 tonnes

Dec 13  - Algeria’s OAIC poised to deliver fresh tender for Feb wheat (AgriCensus)

- Algeria’s state-backed grain importing agency is expected to conclude another wheat buy tender on Wednesday, looking for February shipment 11.5% milling wheat, trade sources have told Agricensus Monday.
- Office Algerien Interprofessional des Cereales (OAIC) tendered for 50,000 mt of wheat including US hard red winter, Canadian western spring, Argentine, French or German milling wheat, with other origins also considered.
- The agency will often tender for a nominal 50,000 mt parcel and then buy larger volumes when the tender closes.
- The volumes are to be shipped from February 1-15 and from February 16-28, with shipment dates rolled forward by a month if loading from South America, India or Australia

Dec 13 - U.S. agriculture agency extends climate funding to small farmers
The U.S. Department of Agriculture will distribute an additional $325 million in funding for projects tailored to smaller-scale farmers to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, taking its total annual investment in climate-friendly farming to more than $3 billion, the agency announced Monday. USDA's efforts are part of a broader Biden administration goal to cut U.S. emissions, targeting the approximately 10% generated from farming annually, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. 

Dec 13 - Nutrien expects normal fertilizer prices in 2023
After a year of price volatility for agricultural inputs, 2023 is set to be a "normal" year for fertilizer and pesticide costs, an official at top Canadian fertilizer maker Nutrien told Reuters on Monday. Nutrien's chief executive for Latin America Andre Dias said the war in Ukraine raised concerns in the sector and initially increased fertilizer prices this year.

Dec 12  - China's 2022 soybean output rebounds, corn slightly rises
China's 2022 soybean crop jumped almost 24%, while corn and wheat output also saw small increases, official data showed on Monday. Rice output, however, fell 2% to 208.5 million tonnes due to declining acreage and severe drought and high temperatures in southern China that hurt yields, said the National Statistics Bureau. 

Dec 12  - UAE asks state entities to buy local in food security push – minister
The United Arab Emirates has directed government entities such as the armed forces and hospital authorities to buy locally grown produce to support agri-tech efforts in the desert country, the minister of climate change and environment said on Sunday. The UAE, which imports 90% of its food, took the decision at an annual government meeting last month to support local production while continuing to embrace open trade policy, Mariam Al Mheiri told the World Policy Conference in Abu Dhabi. 

Dec 12  - Ukraine port of Odesa not operating after Russian drone attack on energy facilities  - minister
The Ukrainian port of Odesa was not operating on Sunday after the latest Russian attack on the region's energy system, Agriculture Minister Mykola Solsky said, but added that grains traders were not expected to suspend exports. Two other ports - Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi - authorised to export grains from Ukraine under a deal between Russia and Ukraine were partially operating, he said.

Dec 09  - Wasde: USDA slashes Argentina wheat, but Black Sea exports boost trade

- The USDA has slashed its production outlook for Argentina and Canada, marking a significant reduction in global production figures but the impact was offset by increased export flows as the operation of the Black Sea corridor was guaranteed for another 120-day stretch.
- For domestic US wheat outlooks, the December update to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) posted minimal changes with just a small tweak made to the export outlook for 2022/23 that had a knock-on impact for ending stock outlooks.
- Overall, Chicago soft red wheat futures were sharply lower in the aftermath of the report's release, with over 11 cents wiped off the March 2023 future and similar losses on contracts out as far as September 2023.

- However, the devil was in the detail – with total US ending stocks left unchanged at 571 million bushels (15.5 million mt) but hard red spring, soft red winter and white wheat export and ending stock outlooks shuffled underneath.
- Soft red winter stocks pushed higher as a 10 million bu reduction in exports boosted ending stocks by the same amount, but a 5 million bu increase in hard red spring and white wheat exports reduced both ending stock figures to leave the total unchanged.

- But the swingeing changes came in the world outlooks, where aligning or adopting with official figures cut Canadian and Argentine production by close to 4.5 million mt in a move that could not be redressed by bringing Australian outlooks into line with official figures.
- Argentina shed 3 million mt to 12.5 million mt, with the USDA warning it could be the smallest production since the 2015/16 marketing year.
- That was augmented by a near 1.2 million mt reduction to Canada’s output, which slipped to 33.8 million mt and contributed to a near 2 million mt reduction in global production, which fell to 780.6 million mt.
- Even an increase to Australian output, which jumped 2.1 million mt to 36.6 million mt, failed to stymy the overall reduction – but an increase in trade meant that supply balances were largely untroubled with global ending stocks pegged at 267.3 million mt.

- That was just a half million mt reduction overall, and was supported by a 2.2 million mt increase in export figures, which rose to 210.8 million mt.

- Evidence of the grain corridor at work drove that increase, with Ukraine’s wheat export figures pushed 1.5 million mt higher to 12.5 million mt and Russia increased by 1 million mt to 43 million mt.
- That suggests that the huge 100 million mt crop that Russian authorities claim is starting to find its way into the global market – although the USDA steadfastly maintained its 91 million mt production outlook. Increased comfort with the operation of the corridor seems to be easing the lingering morality concerns amid competitive pricing, but logistical concerns remain uppermost, with Black Sea export programs in general hurt by deteriorating weather and increasing ice flows in the region.

Dec 09 - EU palm oil use and imports seen plummeting by 2032
The share of palm oil in biodiesel and in food in the European Union is expected to fall significantly within the next 10 years, leading to a sharp drop in imports, the European Commission said on Thursday. In its 2022-2032 Agricultural Outlook, the Commission projected palm oil would account for 9% of total biodiesel output by 2032, down from an average 23% for 2019/2021. 

Dec 09 - Global coffee supply balance surplus expected next season
The global coffee supply balance will shift from a deficit of 2.17 million bags in 2022/23 (April-March) to a surplus of 3.74 million bags in 2023/24 as Brazil's output partly recovers, according to a report by consultancy HedgePoint. It projected Brazilian 2023/24 coffee production to be between 64.9 and 68.9 million bags, compared to 59 million bags projected for 2022/23.

Dec 09  - Argentine forward soybean sales surge as new ‘soy dollar’ starts (AgriCensus)

- Argentine soybean forward sales jumped higher in the week to November 30, with the beginning of the new soy dollar scheme making sales more attractive, data from the country's Agriculture Secretariat showed. Forward corn sales trended higher on the week while forward wheat sales were broadly unchanged. Farmers applied for fresh export licenses for 115,000 mt of corn.

Soybeans
- New crop soybean sales lifted 317% on the week to 256,100 mt while old crop forward sales surged from 188,100 mt in the previous week to 556,600 mt in the week to November 30. Surging soybean sales came as the new soy dollar scheme came in force on November 28, with farmers taking advantage of the preferential exchange rate of 230 pesos to the US dollar. Fresh forward sales lifted total commitments to date to 2.3 million mt for new crop beans and 32.6 million mt for old crop, both considerably lower than the 3.4 million mt and 35.3 million mt reported at the same point in the previous year. Despite the beginning of the scheme, there were virtually no fresh export license applications for soybeans as most beans sold since November 28 were purchased by domestic crush industries, according to anecdotal evidence.

Corn
- Farmer sales for the 2021/22 corn crop lifted mildly to 676,800 mt in the week to November 30 while new crop sales jumped 90% on the week to 153,000 mt. Old crop total commitments to date were reported at 6.5 million mt compared to 11.2 million mt year-ago while new crop accumulated commitments at 43 million mt also fell short of figures from the previous year at 45.6 million mt. There were fresh export license applications for 115,000 mt of old crop corn.

Wheat
- Weekly forward wheat sales were broadly unchanged on the week reported at 45,900 mt for old crop and 137,400 mt for new crop. Accumulated old wheat crop sales were up to 22.9 million mt, above the level reached at the same point in the previous year while new crop total sales came in at 6 million mt, below the 11.4 million mt reported year-ago as a result of the large crop loss farmers faced in 2022. There were no fresh export license applications for wheat.

Dec 08  - US weekly ethanol production boosted by higher w-o-w Midwest output (AgriCensus)

- Weekly US ethanol production rose by 59,000 barrels per day in the week ending December 2, data published by the US Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday. Total ethanol production amounted to 1.08 million barrels per day (b/d) in the reporting week, the data showed, while analysts had polled for a week-on-week dip of 1,000 b/d. The week-on-week rise came primarily on the back of higher output in the Midwest - home to the majority of the country's ethanol production capacity - where production rose above the million barrel mark for the first time since the week ending May 27.

- According to the EIA, ethanol production in the Midwest rose by 52,000 b/d to 1.01 b/d in the week ending December 2. Over the week, full production equated to the consumption of 2.77 million mt of corn, up from 2.62 million mt a week earlier. Ethanol stockpiles continued to climb, advancing by 323,000 barrels week-on-week to 23.2 million barrels in the period covered by the report. Prior to the release of the EIA data, analysts had polled for a week-on-week stockpile decline of 50,000 barrels.

- Margins calculated through a model from Iowa State University showed that the estimated return over operating costs for the average Midwest-based plant rose by around $0.07/gallon in the week ending December 2 to $0.24/gallon.

- Corn prices for the week rose by around 32 cents week-on-week to average $6.60/bu.

- Finished ethanol prices edged down by approximately 2 cents week-on-week to $2.31/gallon. Also in the reporting period, the US Environmental Protection Agency proposed its Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs), which were released on December 1 after being delayed several times and called for an increased overall blending mandate of 20.82 billion gallons for 2023, 21.87 billion gallons for 2024 and 22.68 billion gallons for 2025.

- Ethanol lobby Growth Energy called the EPA's decision to add a 250-million-gallon supplemental for volumes of conventional biofuels including corn-based ethanol to be set at 15 billion gallons or higher (specifically 15 billion in 2023 and 15.25 billion each in 2024 and 2025) "a long-overdue fix that began with 2022 volumes."

Dec 08 - Argentine government says 74.2% of 2021/22 soybean crop sold so far
Argentina soybean sales surged last week to 74.2% of the current harvest, helped by a preferential exchange rate, though sales trailed the totals seen at the same point last year, the government said Wednesday. Producers sold 556,000 tonnes in the week of Nov. 24-30, the highest weekly figure in months, the agricultural secretariat said, though the season's sales so far still lag the 76.9% of last season's crop sold at the same point a year ago. 

Dec 08 - China’s Brazilian corn haul surges; U.S. soy hopes briefly rise
More than two years after China re-entered their market, U.S. corn exporters are finally being displaced by Brazilian ones as the No. 2 exporter’s shipments to China are set to explode this month. Nine vessels totaling 606,540 tonnes of Brazilian corn were set for sail to China this month, according to Tuesday’s shipping lineup from Williams Shipping Agency. That compares with two shipments totaling 93,250 tonnes in November based on lineup data.

Dec 07 - Cocoa sustainability efforts will fail without living wage for farmers
Environmental and social problems in global cocoa supply chains are likely to continue unless companies pay farmers substantially more for their beans, according to a major report on cocoa sustainability published on Wednesday. The Cocoa Barometer, produced by the VOICE Network group of civil society organisations, found farmers in many cocoa-producing countries remain poverty stricken and unable to reduce levels of child labour and deforestation. 

Dec 07 - Chicago wheat ending historic 2022 on dramatic note, losing ground to rivals
The global wheat market has perhaps never faced more uncertainty than in 2022, with Russia's invasion of fellow grain exporter Ukraine early in the year. Chicago wheat futures are still elevated versus most years, though they are slipping significantly versus prices elsewhere and against competing grains, even as supplies remain tight.

Dec 06  - Brazil’s November corn exports at all-time high, first vessel heads to China (AgriCensus)

- Brazil has exported a record 6.1 million mt of corn in November, with the first vessel loaded with grain going to China after the Asian country lifted trade barriers for Brazilian corn, official customs data showed Monday. The data has confirmed that 68,302 mt of corn set sail to China in November.

- The first volumes bound for China since the country lifted its phytosanitary barriers to Brazilian corn were carried by a vessel named Star Iris chartered by Cofco as mentioned in the media a couple of weeks back, Agricensus has confirmed by cross-checking the information with line-up data. November exports were by far the largest for the month on record, above the previous monthly high of 4.8 million mt in 2015. The main destinations for Brazil’s November corn exports were Japan (856,250 mt), Vietnam (714,409 mt) and Iran (673,505 mt) while Spain and Mexico also bought volumes higher than 500,000 mt.

- Over half of the country’s monthly exports were originated in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil’s agricultural powerhouse. Other relevant corn origins were Paraná (10%), São Paulo (8%) and Goiás (6%). Monthly volumes lifted Brazil’s corn exports since the beginning of the calendar up to 37.2 million mt, the second largest on record for the first eleven months of the year and over double of volumes exported during the same period in 2021 when the country faced a major crop loss.

Soybeans
- Brazil has exported 2.6 million mt of soybeans in November, down from 3.9 million mt in October but slightly higher year-on-year.
- China bought the bulk of Brazil’s November bean exports (2.1 million mt) while other relevant volumes headed to Thailand (172,047 mt), Russia (166,519 mt), Spain (121,000 mt) and Vietnam (92,711 mt).
- Russia has been importing larger-than-normal soybean volumes from Brazil since the beginning of the war with Ukraine, having bought 1.3 million mt of Brazilian beans since January, almost twice as much as it imported during the same period in 2021.
- The main originations for Brazilian beans exported in November were Mato Grosso (19%) and Rio Grande do Sul (18%) as the latter typically has larger soybean availability in the end of the year compared to other states due to its later planting schedule. Bahia (14%), Goiás (11%) and Paraná (10%) were other relevant origins for Brazilian soybeans in November.
- Monthly exports pushed total soybean volumes shipped by the country since January up to 77 million mt, below the 83.4 million mt exported in the same period in 2021.

Soybean meal
- Brazil’s soymeal and soyoil exports remained robust in November, with 1.6 million mt of meal and 218,057 mt of oil shipped. That compares to 1.3 million mt of soymeal and 171,003 mt of soyoil exported in November 2021.
- The main export markets for Brazilian soymeal in November were Indonesia (315,129 mt), the Netherlands (251,611 mt), Thailand (197,748 mt), Germany (153,739 mt), Slovenia (133,526 mt) and France (100,858 mt).
- Most November soymeal exports were originated in Mato Grosso (33%) and Paraná (25%), the two states that have the largest soybean crush installed capacity.
- Accumulated soymeal exports since the beginning of the market year reached 19.3 million mt, 24% higher year-on-year.


Soybean oil

 - The key destinations for Brazil’s November soyoil exports were South Korea (15,500 mt), Venezuela (8,427 mt), Pakistan (7,900 mt) and Vietnam (7,500 mt).
- Most volumes exported in November were originated in Paraná (31%), Rio Grande do Sul (16%), Mato Grosso (15%), Goiás (10%) and Santa Catarina (9%).
- Total soyoil exports since the beginning of the calendar year reached 2.3 million mt, up from 1.5 million mt shipped during the same period in 2021.

Dec 06 - Australia forecasts record wheat crop despite floods
Australia is expected to produce a bumper year of crops including record wheat production in the current financial year, the government said on Tuesday, despite the impact of widespread flooding in the the country's eastern region. Total winter crop production across the country is forecast to total 62 million tonnes, the second highest on record, according to a report from the federal Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES).  

Dec 06 - India's sugar output set to drop 7%, could crimp exports
India's sugar output is likely to fall 7% this year as erratic weather conditions have cut cane yields, which could dampen exports from the world's biggest producer of the sweetener, farmers, millers and traders said. Lower sugar exports from India, also the world's second biggest exporter, could lift global prices and allow rivals Brazil and Thailand to increase their shipments.

Dec 05 - Ukraine says ship with wheat for Ethiopia arrives, part of anti-famine push
A ship with Ukrainian wheat destined for Ethiopia arrived in port on Saturday, the first vessel to sail as part of a push to send food to countries most vulnerable to famine and drought, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said. Last Saturday, Ukraine and allied nations launched an initiative to export $150 million worth of grain to Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Congo, Kenya, and Yemen. 

Dec 05 - Funds add length in CBOT corn, soy before late-week downturn in prices
Speculators bought Chicago corn, soybean and soybean product futures and options during the last few days of November, a reversal from the prior week’s moves, though bulls may have pitched some positions late last week amid heavier losses in soybean oil and corn. Most-active CBOT corn and soybean futures both rose about 2% in the four-day week ended Nov. 29, and money managers added roughly 20,000 futures and options contracts to each of their respective net longs.

Dec 02  - Ukraine. End of Day FOB Report. Force Majeure . 01 December 2022
C3 need to inform its client's base that an increasing number of Ukrainian Sources have decided to stop their contributions. It is becoming increasingly difficult to collect quality and complete data and publish it on time due to the unstable situation in Ukraine.
The main issues stand with the lack of Power supply, lack of Wifi needed for transmission, all over the country.
As of today, a number of quotes will be reported as "SUSPENDED"
We hope this situation shall last as soon as possible. Best MC

Dec 02  - EU soyoil prices plummet on sharply lower CME, ample supplies (AgriCensus)

- European soyoil prices plummeted Friday after the soybean complex on the CME collapsed Thursday following an EPA report that lifted biomass-based diesel blending mandates in the US, while ample supply was seen in the market. Soyoil FCA was quoted at €1,375/mt for February-April, down from €1,470/mt Thursday, while for May-July it was quoted at €1,340/mt, down €100/mt on the day.
“It’s bigger stocks and dismay over the EPA report,” one European broker commented, noting that the 6,83 cent/pound (c/lb) drop in December soybean oil futures Thursday was the equivalent of $150/mt.

- Chicago soybean oil prices suffered heavy losses Thursday after news outlets published the latest US biofuel blending mandates based on confidential sources, pre-empting an official release by the US Environmental Protection Agency later in the day. The early reports proved correct with the EPA recommending lifting biomass-based diesel blending mandates from this year's 2.76 billion gallons (gal) to 2.82 billion in 2023, 2.89 billion gal in 2024 and 2.95 billion gal in 2025 . According to the US-based brokerage, Futures International, most traders were looking for a 1.0-1.5 billion gal increase for 2023 with 2024 expected to grow to 21.87 billion gal and 2025 to increase by 22.68 billion gal.
“Traders interpreted the mandates is different ways. The food industry did chalk up a win. Some thought it was bearish for soybean oil futures while others thought it had little impact on the US soybean oil balance sheet and/or USDA 2022-23 soybean crush estimate,” said senior grain and oilseed commodity analyst at Futures International Terry Reilly in his morning report Thursday.
“There is a chance SBO for biofuel use could fall short of expectations because of the large RIN pool. With mandates lower than expected, that means there are less mandates needed to buy, which could in turn pressure RIN prices, thus squeezing biofuel producer margins.”

- Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), which are considered the currency of compliance, are generated on a gallon of renewable fuel produced at an EPA approved production facility, including ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel and other advanced biofuels. CME soybean oil futures were meanwhile trading lower still Friday, with December down 1.21% at 67.57 c/lb and January down 3% at 65.16 c/lb at the time of publication.

Dec 02 - U.S. farm incomes seen soaring to new highs on global food, feed demand
Soaring grain and livestock prices are expected to push U.S. farm incomes to a historic high this year, as producers benefit from strong global grain and oilseed demand amid tight supplies, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported on Thursday. Net farm income - which is a broad measure of profits in the agricultural economy, according to the agency - is forecast to increase to $160.5 billion in 2022 from $141.0 billion a year earlier, an increase of $19.5 billion. 

Dec 02 - U.S. EPA proposes revamp of biofuel program to include electric vehicles
President Joe Biden's administration on Thursday unveiled a three-year proposal to expand the U.S. biofuels policy with bigger volume mandates and - for the first time - include a pathway for electric vehicle manufacturers to generate lucrative credits. Biden wants to fight climate change by reducing fossil fuel use in America's transport sector, currently the source of around a quarter of the country's greenhouse gases.

Dec 02  - Brazil’s corn exports hit a record for November at 6m mt: Customs

- Brazil’s corn exports reached 6 million mt in November, up 153.2% from the 2.4 million mt reached in the same month last year, official customs data showed Monday. The volume is lower than last month’s 7.2 million mt but still an all-time high for the month.  The average pace of corn exports per working day reached 302,947 mt, up 140.6% from November 2021’s 125,922 mt. The country’s grain exporters’ association Anec projected this month's exports to reach 5.9 million mt.

Soybeans
- Brazil’s soybean exports ended November at 2.6 million mt, up 2% from the month last year, when shipments totaled 2.5 million mt, but still lower than October’s 4 million mt. Soybean shipments per working were reported at 132,045 mt, down 3% from last year’s 136,165 mt average pace for November. Anec forecast Brazil's soybean shipments to reach 2 million mt in November.

Soymeal & soyoil
- Brazil’s soymeal exports reached 1.6 million mt in November, up 23% from last year’s 1.3 million mt exports in the same month and down from October’s 1.8 million mt. The average shipment per working day was 80,136 mt, 15% higher than the 62,702 mt pace during November 2021. Anec expects Brazil's soymeal shipments to reach 1.5 million mt in November 2022.

- Vegetable fats and oils, mostly composed of soyoil exports, reached 241,517 mt in November, up 34% on the 179,266 mt volume exported at the same month in 2021. The average export per working day reached 12,075 mt, 28% higher than last year’s 9,435 mt average in the same month.

Dec 01 - Chinese farmers let cabbages rot as COVID curbs disrupt sales
China's vegetable growers are ploughing their produce back into their fields or leaving it to rot, as widespread restrictions to curb the spread of COVID cut off distribution channels and close markets. Thousands of tonnes of vegetables are unsold in central Henan province, one of the country's top producing regions, according to local media reports, charities and farmers, while farmers in northern Shandong province, another top growing region, are also unable to reach markets. 

Dec 01 - U.S. EPA to propose boost in biofuel blending volumes, EV program
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will propose increases in the amount of ethanol and other biofuels that oil refiners must blend into their fuel over the next three years, two sources familiar with the matter said. The EPA will also seek for the first time to make the use of biofuels to charge electric vehicles part of the renewable fuel program, giving car makers like Tesla Inc the ability to generate tradable credits, the sources said. The EV proposal will add up to 1.4 billion new credits by 2025, they added.

Nov 30  - Ukraine. End of Day FOB Report. 30 November 2022
- The FOB market has started to revive, and wheat and corn prices show solid growth. We see an increase in the number of wishing to buy, as several large international tenders lead to rising demand in ports.

- In contrast to grains, the sunflower oil FOB market has declined, following the soybean oil market. As a result, importers are not entering the market, waiting for the price to stabilize.

- The demand for Ukrainian grain is minimal on DAP markets. European importers have significant stocks and continue receiving deliveries under previously concluded contracts.

Nov 30 - Russian winter cereal planting and harvesting stalls on unfavorable weather (AgriCensus)

- Russian winter cereal planting has stalled due to unfavorable weather conditions, with 17.6 million hectares planted as of November 28, a regular update from the agriculture ministry showed Tuesday. While the ministry does not provide a forecast of the planned planted area, a statement from the Russian Grain Union provided additional insight, marking it at 17.6 million hectares, which implies that the sowing is completed. However, harvest work has still not been finished in some of the fields that were expected to be used for winter sowing.

- By comparison, last year 18.3 million ha had been planted at the same time. The area under winter crops decreased mainly in the central region due to adverse weather conditions. However, local analysts are positive about the first prospects for the future harvest, despite a significant shortage of wheat expected in the central region.

- High moisture reserves and good crop condition in almost all winter wheat-producing regions suggest a gross wheat harvest in 2023 at the level of 83.1 million mt.
"If the area of losses is low in winter and spring, production may reach up even to 87 million mt," local analysts Rusagrotrans say.

Harvest
- Late crop harvesting was also slow due to weather conditions – it snowed almost everywhere except the South, where the crop has already been harvested.
- Additional harvesting of sunflower seeds and corn takes place in the spring, but in this case, the quality is likely to decrease.
- Therefore, farmers are hoping for a forecast of cold sunny weather from this week, which will allow harvesting to resume.

- As of November 28, the corn harvest increased by 4% over the week to 63%, with 10.59 million mt threshed from 1.8 million ha, while average yield figures were 6.4 % up year-on-year at 5.9 mt/ha.
- The sunflower harvest progressed slowly increasing by one percentage point to 73.7%, with 13.4 million mt threshed from 7.39 million ha, while average yield figures were 12.8 % up year-on-year at 1.8 mt/ha.
- Soybean harvesting progressed also by one percentage point and was completed on 92.1% of the sown area, with 6 million mt in the bins, average yield also stands at 14.5% above the previous year's figures and amounted to 1.9 mt/ha.

Nov 30 - Mexico open to deal with U.S. on GMO corn as farmers demand clarity over ban
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Tuesday he is seeking a deal with Washington after the United States threatened legal action over Mexico's plan to ban genetically modified (GMO) corn in 2024. After meeting with Mexican officials on Monday, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack said Mexico's decree could violate the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade pact. 

Nov 30 - Fate of struggling U.S. winter wheat crop may come down to March rains
Widespread and worsening drought in the United States clipped summer yields earlier this year, and it now stands to limit output of winter wheat, which is heading into dormancy in near-record poor health. The worst conditions for winter wheat are currently found in Plains states that suffered the largest losses among corn and sorghum crops, as well as the previous winter wheat harvest, raising concern for grain supplies in these areas. Exports are of less concern at the moment since the U.S. share of world trade has shrunk.

Nov 29  - Ukraine. End of Day FOB Report. 29 November 2022
The demand for grains has begun to increase in Ukrainian ports, and traders are looking for lots with delivery in the second half of December. The deep water FOB market still looks very weak. Almost all demand here comes from traders themselves, while direct importers prefer to buy on CIF bases.
The Ukrainian sunflower oil market has gradually stabilized, and traders report the return of demand from European buyers and Indian importers.

Nov 29 - U.S. winter wheat ratings seen improving to 33% good/excellent (POLL)
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's last weekly U.S. crop progress report for 2022 should show a slight improvement in winter wheat condition ratings, according to the average of estimates from nine analysts surveyed by Reuters on Monday. Analysts on average expected the USDA to rate 33% of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, up 1 point from the previous week. Estimates ranged from 32% to 35% good-to-excellent.  

Nov 29 - Funds forge most bearish CBOT wheat view since 2019, corn selling eases
Chicago wheat futures are significantly lower than earlier this year when conflict broke out between top Black Sea exporters, though speculators’ views have grown increasingly bearish despite an easing in prices. In the week ended Nov. 22, money managers increased their net short position in CBOT wheat futures and options to 53,402 contracts from 46,780 a week earlier. That marked funds’ most bearish wheat stance since May 2019, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Nov 28  - ‘Soy dollar’, lowered taxes to bolster Argentine soymeal, soyoil exports (AgriCensus)

- Argentine farmers are not expected to sell as much soybeans as they did in September despite the reinstitution of the preferential exchange rate policy colloquially known as the “soy dollar,” while Argentine soyoil and soymeal are expected to gain export competitiveness, market sources have told Agricensus Monday. Argentina’s government confirmed late Friday that it would introduce a new soy dollar scheme from Monday to the end of the year, while also going on to  reduce the export duty on soyoil and soymeal from 33% to 31% - a measure that was expected only a month later.
“We can expect another round of good farmers’ selling of soybeans but not at the pace of what we have seen in September during the first soy dollar period,” Anilkumar Bagani, research head at Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group, told Agricensus.

- At the same time, market participants believe the combined effect of bolstered soybean farmers sales and the reduction in export taxes on soyoil and soymeal will likely benefit Argentina’s oil and meal exports.
“The most important thing of the measures announced is the reintroduction of different export tariffs in favour of subproducts,” head of the Latin America grains sales desk at HedgePoint Global, Maria Sol Arcidiácono, told Agricensus.

- Arcidácono does not expect Argentine soybeans to be extremely competitive at the export market at this time of the year but believes the measures announced Friday will pressure global soymeal prices and the regional basis of both soymeal and soyoil lower. A trader heard by Agricensus Monday has similar expectations saying they believe meal and oil prices will drop significantly over the coming couple of weeks. Bagani agrees that Argentine meal and oil exports will likely benefit from the measures, expecting to see a pickup in exported volumes.
“The export registrations for meal and oil should… [benefit from] competitive prices and reduced taxes,” he said.

- The policies announced on Friday are regarded as positive both for farmers and crushers, but most believe farmers’ sales will not be as aggressive as in September. Argentine farmers sold a total of 13 million mt of beans under the previous soy dollar scheme in September and hold now about 12 million mt of yet-unsold old crop soybeans. The somewhat limited volume of beans farmers still have at hands is not the only reason why market participants do not expect the pace of fresh sales up to the end of the year to be as robust as in September.
“Farmers are still unsure about the current weather conditions which has delayed the 2022/23 soybean sowing and unless weather conditions turn favourable, farmers’ selling of beans would be a touch slower,” Bagani said.

Nov 28  - EU Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- The situation in China as they grapple with record covid cases and growing unrest will make predicting president Xi's next move very difficult to predict. It may move food security up the list of importance for the governemnt but down the list of risks large trade houses are willing to take.
- Brazil is the next political hot potato the trade are having to consider as growing unease there over the new president, especially amongst the farming community will trouble the trade.
- Then in Argentina their soy peso that runs for the next month or so should stimulate sales there to cut into US demand. The trade has to balance this against extensive and intensive dryness there. I have worked as a "gofor" to electricians in feed mills and know all too well the reliance that elvators have for electricity, and lots of it call into question their ability to maintain exports with major power outage is the next question.

Nov 28 - Argentina revives 'soy dollar' FX rate until year-end to boost reserves
Argentina on Friday announced a more generous exchange rate for U.S. dollars brought in through soy exports until the end of the year, seeking to rev up exports of its top cash crop and bring much-needed dollars to central bank coffers. The 230 pesos per U.S. dollar exchange rate for soybeans and their derivatives will start on Monday, Economy Minister Sergio Massa said following a meeting with farm sector leaders. Currently, the official rate hovers around 165 pesos. 

Nov 28 - Egypt's wheat reserves sufficient for more than five months
Egypt's wheat reserves are sufficient for more than five months of consumption, while its sugar reserves are sufficient for only four months, deputy supply and internal trade minister, Ibrahim Ashmawy, told Reuters on Saturday. Egypt's vegetable oil reserves are sufficient for nearly five months as well, while those of rice are sufficient for four months, Ashmawy said.

Nov 25  - Ukraine farmers could plant pulses on low fertilizer need: trade (AgriCensus)

- Ukraine pea and pulse production could be thrown a lifeline as their relatively low need for fertilizers could encourage farmers to plant more, an industry group has told Agricensus. Since much of Ukraine's pulse industry has been export-oriented, the country's sector has been hit hard by the challenges brought by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The nature of the season meant that typically most pulses exports happen before the end of the calendar year, so peas and other pulses in the 2021 season were already sold and shipped abroad before the war started. For any volumes left unexported, traders were able to place most of the remaining pulses by railways and tracks across the borders into the European Union.

- According to official government data, in 2021 Ukraine harvested 500,000 mt of peas; of which around 70,000-80,000 mt went to domestic consumption, leaving just over 400,000 mt to be exported, according to estimates from the Ukraine Pulse Association. But this spring planting campaign, under war conditions, resulted in a dramatic decrease in pea plantings with the area halved compared to 2021.
“At the beginning of the war, the feasibility of growing pulses was actively raised. Pulses are less expensive to plant, a source of plant protein, which is attractive from a food security perspective and very important - do not require large amounts of fertilizer,” Antonina Sklyarenko, the president of industry body Ukraine Pulse Association told Agricensus.

- And peas remain the number 1 pulses crop for Ukrainian farmers, with interest in this crop now said to be growing in response to the current fertilizers supply crisis.
“More often, farmers' choice fell on peas... this crop allows you to get a harvest with relatively small costs for seeds and plant protection products,” Sklyarenko said.

- Indeed, according to Ukrainian Ministry of Agricultural Policy estimates, nitrogen consumption was 3.6 times lower than in the previous season, with phosphorus 3.7 times lower and potash demand 5.6 times lower, and they expected those figures to be reduced further in the next season. As per Ukraine Pulse Association data, in 2022, the Ukrainian peas crop fell to 238,000 mt, and domestic consumption is not expected to exceed 50,000-55,000 mt, after so many of the country's population were displaced. As such, even with lower production, Ukraine could potentially export about 190,000 mt of peas in the 2022/23 marketing year, with some volumes already now passing through the grain corridor.

- On November 15, a vessel with 6,100 mt of peas sailed from Ukraine to Turkey and the extension of the corridor for another 120 days will likely create additional export opportunities for pulses, potentially supporting local prices. In common with other elements of Ukraine's export slate, the war has imposed drastic changes on the geography of its pulses exports. Before 2022, the main buyers of Ukrainian pulses were Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia, and then the EU, but after the war's start, most of the volumes have gone straight to the EU for obvious reasons.

Trade  - But complications remain
.

- As one farmer explained to Agricensus, this season, traders are reluctant to enter into forward contracts as the risks remain very high and the war has meant adjustments to the sowing campaign and trade process. According to Ukraine Pulse Association, purchasing prices for Ukrainian peas on the market now are not very high - hovering around $145-180 per tonne, although for other pulses the situation is better, with chickpeas prices about $750-800 per tonne. But even with the challenges, the low input need means for next year, farmers plan to plant pulses, and peas in particular.
- Now, the seed supply reminds the main obstacle, and the association has said it will focus its efforts on finding ways to provide farmers with seeds before the spring planting campaign gets underway.

Nov 25 - Ukraine grain exports sputter after extension deal with Russia
Ukraine's grain exports have gotten off to a slower start after a U.N.-brokered deal was extended last week to help ease global hunger, and one Ukrainian envoy put part of the blame on Russia's reluctance to speed up ship inspections. Since the agreement was extended beyond Nov. 19, no more than five ships a day have departed Ukraine, U.N. data show, down from previous weeks and months when up to 10 departed.  

Nov 25 - Argentina's soybean crop severely delayed due to drought, says grains exchange
Argentina's soybean planting for the 2022/23 cycle is facing severe delays compared to last year, as the country endures a prolonged drought and expects only scant rainfall in the coming days, the Buenos Aires Grains exchange said on Thursday. Argentina is the world's top exporter of processed soy, but the delays could mean some producers will not manage to meet their planting forecasts.

Nov 25  - Egypt’s GASC books 115k mt milling wheat privately at $361/mt (AgriCensus)

- Egypt’s state-backed grain importing agency has picked up three cargoes of Black Sea milling wheat at $361/mt after concluding a private buying tender, trade sources have told Agricensus Thursday. The General Authority of Supply Commodities booked two cargoes of Russian wheat and one cargo of Ukrainian at the same price level, according to traders, with shipment windows stretching from December through to January.

- For the two Russian wheat cargoes, one was for January 1-15 and the second for January 16-30 2023, with both positions for 40,000 mt at $361/mt from the company GTCS.
- The other position booked was for 35,000 mt of Ukrainian wheat for December 1-31 shipment , sold by CHS.
- The trade value was $1/mt above the assessed value of the Agricensus delivered North Africa wheat price, which was assessed at $360/mt.

Nov 24  - EU exports more SMP to Algeria to fill the gap left by China’s absence (IHSmarkit)

- During September the EU exported 16,100 tonnes of SMP to Algeria
- Exports to China contracted by 33% y/y
- The EU is currently carrying a large premium over both Oceania and US prices which in part drove export volumes down

- In September, EU dairy product exports once again contracted. A drop in production was behind much of the decline in export volumes as well as the reduction in the EU competitiveness on the global market which it has felt this year. China has been importing fewer shipments of milk powders all year. However, for the EU in September Algeria absorbed the surplus. This is a marked change from the prior month’s trend where SMP exports to Algeria were in a y/y deficit.

- Fluid milk and cream shipments fell 3% y/y, to 107,600 tonnes. The majority of this trade is across the Irish/Northern Irish border and very much reflects changes in raw milk production volumes.

- Milk powder and concentrate exports contracted 10% y/y, to 106,300 tonnes. Within this SMP exports ticked up slightly (+2% y/y), to 63,300 tonnes. WMP exports fell 15% y/y, to 22,500 tonnes.

- SMP exports to China plummeted 33% y/y, to 5,400 tonnes. Meanwhile, Algeria stepped up to more than fill that void, with shipments increasing 86% y/y, to 16,100 tonnes. While many other major exporters have stepped up volumes to Indonesia, the EU is an exception with volumes halving to 2,200 tonnes.

- WMP volumes to Trinidad and Tobago increased from 400 tonnes in September 2021, to 5,500 tonnes in September 2022. Shipments to Algeria increased 64% y/y, to 2,300 tonnes. Volumes to Oman and Kuwait stood at 2,200 and 2000 tonnes respectively. Volumes to China fell 20% y/y, to 1,800 tonnes.

- Cheese and curd exports fell 27% y/y, to 92,400 tonnes. The decline was largely driven by a 72% y/y drop in volumes to the UK, which stood at 12,200 tonnes for the month. Volumes to the US fell 6%, to 12,200 tonnes. That decline however was more than offset by a rise in volumes to Japan and South Korea.

- Whey and similar product exports fell 6% y/y, to 62,300 tonnes. Yoghurt and other fermented product exports dropped 54% y/y, to 21,200 tonnes. Butter and other dairy fat exports declined 14% y/y, to 19,800 tonnes.

Nov 24  - US weekly ethanol production and stockpiles surpass expectations (AgriCensus)

- US ethanol production increased by 30,000 barrels in the week ending November 18, or 3% from the prior week to 1.41 million barrels per day (bpd), data published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed Wednesday. The figure, which was driven by increased production the Midwest – home to the majority of the country's production capacity – exceeded analysts' expectations that called for production to be up around 11,000 barrels to 1.02 million barrels. Over the week, full production equated to the consumption of 2.68 million mt of corn, up 80,000 mt from a week earlier.

- Ethanol stockpiles also moved up week-on-week to 22.83 million barrels, up 1.53 million barrels, also surpassing projections for stocks to increase by about 6,000 barrels on the week to 21.3 million barrels. Margins calculated through a model from Iowa State University showed that the estimated return over operating costs for the average Midwest-based plant was down by $0.19/gallon in the week ending November 18 to $0.33/gallon. Corn prices for the week averaged $6.85/bu – a 35-cents increase from levels recorded a week earlier.

- Finished ethanol prices meanwhile moved down by $0.04/bu to $2.44/gallon.

Nov 24 - Deere's strong earnings aided by pricing boost, shares hit record high
Deere & Co on Wednesday posted a quarterly profit that easily beat Wall Street estimates with strong sales accelerated by price hikes for its agriculture and construction equipment, sending its shares to a record high. Despite supply chain challenges, the world's largest farm equipment maker reported a 75% increase in profit for its final quarter of its fiscal year and forecast higher net income for next year. 

Nov 24 - India's cotton exports stall as farmers delay sales hoping for higher prices
Indian traders are struggling to export cotton despite higher production as farmers are delaying sale of their harvest hoping for higher prices in coming months, industry officials told Reuters. The limited supplies are keeping local prices significantly above the global benchmark, making overseas sales unviable from the world's biggest producer of the fibre.

Nov  23  - EU Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- The dry bulk freight market turned on its head from unbuyable to now a world where $30/tonne can get you from the West coast of Europe to the US which opens up all sorts of possibilities and the market is having to reallign futures prices to the potential pull these lower freight rates create.
- There is a big divide between East and West in Europe where the Eastern traders describe an extremely dull market divoid of both buyers and sellers but in Western Europe the demand is
strong. the one unifying theme is the lack of farmer selling. Never in the history of the EU have farmers been so cash rich and had access to so much private storage and the exporters are
feeling that now.
- Rail strikes in the US further disrupt the relative values of grains depending on geographical location.
- China's covid approach will haunt demand for months to come.
- Oil prices are all over the place as the market tries to balance what it feels like a trajectory to lower demand and the prospect the US is running low in SPR to release and OPEC seem more inclined to cut production than maintain it.
- Some chillier weather to come for Europe giving support to gas prices.

 

Nov 23  - End of cheap money for U.S. farmers plows trouble into food production
Often, farmers seek to secure loans by year-end or early January to take advantage of suppliers' early-pay discounts and to ensure they won't be caught short as global supplies of fertilizers and chemicals remain tight. Now, producers are wrestling with how to pay for that debt as interest rates rise headed into the next planting season, according to interviews with two dozen farmers and bankers, as well as data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Kansas City Federal Reserve.

Nov 23  - Grain giant Bunge to buy 49% of BZ Group to boost French exports
Global commodities merchant Bunge will buy 49% of French grain handler BZ Group in a move that will reinforce Bunge's presence in the port of Rouen, the largest cereal export terminal in Western Europe. BZ Group collects about 575,000 tonnes of grains, oilseeds and pulses annually in northwest France and handles about 1.5 million tonnes of agricultural commodities per year through its Rouen export terminal.

Nov 23  - Brazil's 2023 corn exports could get big boost from China
Brazilian corn exports could jump exponentially next year if farmers harvest a full crop and Chinese demand is strong, Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters said on Tuesday. Brazil is poised to export 40 million tonnes to 50 million tonnes of corn next year, boosted by a new trade protocol with China and a potential bumper crop, said Sergio Mendes, director general of the group, known as Anec, in an interview.

Nov 23  - EU wheat exports get second wind with Chinese and U.S. demand
French wheat sales to China and talk of Polish or German wheat being booked in the United States are creating an unexpected wave of demand for EU supplies after exports had been curbed by Russian competition in recent weeks, traders said. These opportunities could push 2022/23 European Union wheat shipments further ahead of last season's pace and use up most of export surplus in France, they said.

Nov 22  - Ukraine. End of Day FOB Report. 22 November 2022
- Liquidity gradually begins to appear in the FOB market. However, buyers, as before, prefer to look for Ukrainian grain shipments on CIF bases.
- The demand is focused on corn and sunflower oil, but the interest in wheat is pretty weak, as importers expect lower prices.
- Ukrainian farmers have begun to restrain their sales, and the supply is gradually decreasing. Purchase prices remain low, and few agrarians want to sell here and now.

Nov 22 - Dry weather in southern EU raises concerns for winter crops, MARS says
Winter crops in most of Europe were off to a good start, helped by historically warm weather and sufficient moisture, but a lack of rain is prompting concern in the southern region, the European Union's crop monitor MARS said on Monday. Crop conditions for next year's harvest are being closely watched at a time when grain and oilseed global supplies are being disrupted by the war in Ukraine and after summer crops like maize already endured historic drought in the EU last season.  

Nov 22 - Discounts lift Russia's fertilizer exports, becomes top supplier to India
Russia for the first time became the biggest fertilizer supplier to India in the first half of the 2022/23 fiscal year by offering discounts over prevailing global prices, cornering more than a fifth of the market share, government and industry sources said. India's fertilizer imports from Russia surged 371% to a record 2.15 million tonnes in the first six months of the year started on April 1, a senior government official who was closely monitoring the imports, told Reuters.

Nov 22  - Up to 75% of France's wheat surplus could be exported by end-Dec (AgriCensus)

- The pace of French wheat exports have been supercharged by conflict in the Black Sea, as end users looked for alternative wheat supplies amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  France started its exports in the new marketing year at an unusually strong pace, and by November has already exported 63% of its potential surplus for the 2022/23, trade sources have told Agricensus. The country sold a large share of its crop at the beginning of the season on a forward basis, as supply concerns forced wheat importers to shore up stocks and European producers capitalised. As of November 21, the total export volume amounted to 6.3 million mt, according to analysis of European Commission export data and data from ship line-ups. That is 75% more than both last year's performance and the average of the last three years.

- Comparing that to the estimate for non-EU exports from the French government farm agency Franceagrimer, the figure amounts to 63% of the 10 million tonnes it is forecasting. However, adding to those existing large sales this season, importers in China have also secured at least half a million mt of French wheat for December shipment, while big volumes were also booked by Morocco, trade sources have said.  The sales, which were believed to have taken place late last week, included eight confirmed and possibly up to ten panamax cargoes booked in total with 60,000-65,000 tons each of 11% protein wheat - all believed to be French origin - sold at $375/mt, traders said.

- But traders cast doubt on the ability of France to source such volumes - given the tight supply in the market.
"We believe [other traders] could have done more, but that’s committing suicide as the market is short cash," a source said regarding reports of heavy Chinese buying of French wheat and a shortage of physical grains.
This means that any traders may be physically unable to buy such a volume in the next half month, particularly given the falling market triggered by the extension of the Ukrainian grain corridor. While the total volumes bought were not yet clear, multiple sources spoken to by Agricensus believed that by the end of December, up to 7.5 million mt - or 70-75% of France's wheat surplus - could have already been sold, putting it significantly ahead of the same stage last year.

- According to European Commission data, by the end of December last year some 4.6 million mt of wheat had been exported to countries outside the EU bloc. That represented 53% of the country's export potential, according to French government farm agency Franceagrimer at the time. 

Nov 21  - EU Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StonesX)
- That the overnight markets barely found any support with new wires describing significant shelling at and arround the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is in a weird way a good sign that the market is moving away from trading headlines. Its also a sign of Ukraine war fatigue.
- Option implied volatility is crashing as the long option strategies see too much range bound trade and want to stop the leaking. Options are the first indicator of fear, that they are generally trading at or close to average in terms of implied volatility levels is essentially the market saying they see price fear as no more or less than normal. We are in a normal level of "fear".
- At least in the futures markets.
- In this physical market this is probably true for feed grains with well supplied barley, Brazilian corn and low grade wheat. Milling wheat on the contrary showing more signs of anxiety with the KC futures and protein premiums strong too. The only milling markets that are showing anything close to value is Russia and the Baltics that in recent years have become highly correlated with each other.

Nov 21 - China's October soybean imports from Brazil slide
China's soybean imports from Brazil fell 15% in October from the same month last year, as high prices and a lack of crushing profits eroded appetite for purchases from the South American nation. Imports from the United States were flat from a year earlier, data showed on Sunday. 

Nov 21 - Large part of Ukrainian corn crop may stay in fields over winter
Significant areas of Ukraine's corn crop may be left to overwinter in the fields due to difficulties with harvesting and fuel shortages, analyst APK-Inform said on Sunday. Corn can potentially be harvested in winter or early spring, but previously only very small areas of the crop would be left to overwinter if farmers wanted to reduce grain moisture.

Nov 18  - Ukraine wheat offers reemerge at lower levels after corridor extension (AgriCensus)

- Offers of 11.5% Ukraine wheat returned to the market Friday at sharply lower levels, after Thursday’s announcement that the UN-brokered grain corridor agreement would be extended for another 120 days. The lowest offer for second half December was seen at $290/mt FOB Pivdennyi, Odesa or Chornomorsk (POC) for a 25,000 mt parcel, with a buyer seen at $280/mt, while November 20-30 loading was heard offered at $285/mt for the same volume.

- Feed wheat offers on a cost, insurance and freight basis into Spain and Italy also indicated prices around $10/mt lower than those last assessed.
 “It looks like it [is all lower], but still more sellers are on hold waiting for the corridor to physically restart,” one trade source commented.

- Ukrainian wheat offers have been few and far between in recent days, as market participants awaited clarity on whether the grain corridor would continue beyond its initial November 19 deadline and if so under what terms. On Thursday the Ukrainian ministry of infrastructure said the grain corridor had been extended for another 120 days bringing some certainty back to the market at least for the near term. However, hopes of a longer extension of at least a year, and of the inclusion of the port of Mykolaiv, which handled a large chunk of Ukraine’s exports prior to the Russian invasion last February, did not materialize.
The UN also confirmed the extension in an official note.

- Meanwhile, the corridor remains subject to delays, as there is still a congestion of vessels waiting for inbound and outbound inspections in Istanbul, and the current pace of inspections is failing even to make the planned 10 vessels per day.

Nov 18  - Market Briefing: Dairy (IHSmarkit)

- Similar to other exporting nations, Australia grew its exports to Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates
- During September, production in Chile declined for a fourth consecutive month
- Demand from China continues to be lacklustre

Production
- Production of milk in Chile during September totalled 194.9 million litres, a 3.3% y/y decrease. This is the fourth consecutive month of Chilean milk production running below year-ago levels. The price paid for this milk was 24% above a year ago levels. This is growth in the y/y premium since August. In the calendar year-to-date, production stands at 1.5 billion litres, 1.2% down y/y. Looking at dairy product production, more milk has been directed into milk powder production this year with fluid milk production decreasing.

Demand
- There was some growth in prices at the GDT this week which was potentially supported by a pick-up in demand. Some easing of Covid-19 restrictions in China could be supporting this price growth, The Covid-19 restrictions coupled with the economic circumstances in China have been weighing on Chinese dairy demand through 2022. Chinese demand however still appears to be showing all the signs of being weak. Volumes of WMP purchased by Chinese buyers continue to run below a year ago levels, and retail sales in China are down. Purchases from other regions have increased which has offset the lack of Chinese buying activity at least in volume terms.

Trade
- During September Australia exported more milk powders and concentrates than a year ago. Volumes grew 0.8% y/y, to 19,900 tonnes. Meanwhile, cheese volumes fell 19.7% y/y, to 10,500 tonnes. Similar to other exporting nations, a fall in milk powder and concentrate exports to China (-24%) were offset by rises to Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates.

Prices
- EU cheese markets have slightly softened which comes as no surprise. Reports have suggested that similar to butter, consumers have been trading down to entry-level. Inventories have also moved above the empty level where they have sat for many months. While the current level of inventories is unlikely to be sufficient to weigh on the market, it may be enough to take prices off the boiling point. Hanover German edam/gouda mix block price fell €0.03, to €5.30/kg.
- CME spot butter jumped 13.25 cents to $2.905/lb. on Friday and there were 13 loads trading hands for the week. Stocks remain tight and a few buyers are still scrambling to stock up ahead of the holiday. However, the expectation is that butter prices will shift lower and find some support in the mid-$2.70s by the end of the month and drop another 10 cents by November.

Nov 18  - EU Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- The unconfirmed ideas that EU (Blatic) wheat has traded to the US seem to have enough substance to be assumed to be true. Even if not the maths seem to make sense but the assumption that traders have actually pulled the trigger was a enough to get the spreaders in action with Matif gathering support as US futures weakened.
- Materially a few cargo's won't alter the S&D dials greatly but psychologically it is not insignificant.
- The Baltics have been struggling for demand and if they find it in the US then why not.
- French winter crop ratings could scarcely be better as we head into winter dormancy.
- Prospects for US winter wheat on the other end to the scale, Ukraine will be way down for obvious reasons and Russia seems set to lose some area so new crop looks like a mixed bag but the potential for bumper crops on the whole next year are slim.
- So take this NC uncertainty and the continued undercutting of Russian values it feeds the old-new bear spread idea.
- The market feels like a market due some short covering with a lot of better value raw materials.

Nov 18  - Black Sea grain corridor deal extended for further 120 days (AgriCensus)

- The Black Sea grain corridor initiative will be extended, but only for another 120 days, an offiicial statement from the Ukrainian ministry of infrastructure said on Thursday. The confirmation provides certainty for the balance of the year, but scotches rumours that the corridor could have been extended for a much longer period. Alongside the 120 day grain corridor extension, the agreement also confirmed that the port of Mykolaiv was not included in the deal - at least not yet.
"The initiative for safe transport of agricultural products across the Black Sea has been extended for another 120 days. This decision was just taken in Istanbul. The United Nations and Turkey remained the guarantors of the Initiative,” the note said.

- It was also said that Ukraine has appealed with a proposal to extend the initiative for at least 1 year and to include the Mykolaiv port in this initiative. The UN also confirmed the extension in an official note.
“The United Nations is also fully committed to removing the remaining obstacles to exporting food and fertilizers from the Russian Federation,” the official note showed.

- That comes after rumors appeared in the market that Mykolaiv could also be reopened after Russian troops were pushed out of the Kherson region, to the left side of the Dnipro river. However, there was no official confirmation that the Kinburn Spit - a strategic land feature that dominates the approach to the port and remains in Russian hands - is as yet under Ukrainian control. The Ukrainian infrastructure ministry also said that proposals for the improvement of the efficiency for corridor activity were provided to the counterparties.

- At the moment, there remains congestion of vessels waiting for inbound and outbound inspections in Istanbul, as currently the pace of inspections remaining at around 10 vessels per day planned, but in fact, it goes even slower. Among the measures that were discussed among market participants were improvements for the inspection process, proposals to increase the number of teams - a measure that has already shown good results when Russia walked out of the deal in October and the remaining parties increased it to 10 teams working. Those measures allowed the teams to inspect up to 40 vessels per day.

- The other element that was discussed is the elimination of the requirement to inspect outbound vessels as they are leaving the Black Sea. Russian authorities requested inspections to ensure vessels trading into Ukraine were not carrying military equipment or other war supplies, but some in the trade have argued that it makes no sense to check vessels leaving the region. Since the signing of the deal back in July, Ukraine has exported around 11.1 million mt of agricultural goods, including 4.6 million mt of corn, 3.1 million mt of wheat, and around 730,000 mt of sunoil.

Nov 18 - Ukraine lacks viable plan B to boost grain exports via rail, road or river
Ukraine has few viable options currently to boost grain exports by rail, road or river barge anytime soon if a United Nations-brokered deal with Moscow to export by sea runs into trouble. Ukraine is one of the world's leading grain and oilseed exporters and a Russian blockade of its ports after Moscow invaded its southern neighbour in February triggered higher global prices for basic foods. 

Nov 18 - Can Ukraine's grain deal ease the global food crisis?
A deal to free up vital grain exports from Ukraine's southern Black Sea ports - which had been due to expire on Nov. 19 - was extended on Thursday for 120 days. The agreement, originally reached in July, created a protected sea transit corridor and was designed to alleviate global food shortages by allowing exports to resume from three ports in Ukraine, a major producer of grains and oilseeds.

 

Nov 18  - Black Sea grain export deal extended, but Russia wants more on fertiliser exports
A deal aimed at easing global food shortages by helping Ukraine export its agricultural products from Black Sea ports was extended for four months on Thursday, though Russia said its own demands were yet to be fully addressed. The agreement, initially reached in July, created a protected transit corridor and was designed to alleviate shortages by allowing exports to resume from three ports in Ukraine, a major producer of grains and oilseeds.

Nov 18  - Argentina exchange says rain needed soon to avert soy planting cuts

Argentina farmers could reduce the area they plant with soy if more rain does not bring relief to drought-plagued farmlands soon, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said Thursday as it forecast moderate showers in parts of the country's farm belt. A prolonged drought has forced farmers to delay planting soy, which is only 12% complete, versus 29% at the same date last year. The current crop's total planted area is projected at 16.7 million hectares (41.3 million acres), the exchange said.

Nov 17 - Brazil's Amaggi has sold more than half of its 2022/23 soybean crop, executive says
Amaggi, one of Brazil's largest agribusiness conglomerates, has already sold nearly 60% of the soybean it expects to harvest in 2022/23, a level exceeding the average of most farmers as it pushes for a "conservative strategy" matching grain sales and input purchases. The pace of privately owned Amaggi's forward sales so far has been roughly twice the average seen in Mato Grosso, Brazil's top grain producing state and where most of the company's agricultural operations are located. 

Nov 17 - Food prices to edge down in 2023 as recession looms
Prices for agricultural commodities like coffee, feed grains and oilseeds could dip next year as many major economies enter recession, but they will remain high in historic terms, Rabobank said in a report on Wednesday. The bank said consumers face a darkening macro-economic picture, with energy shortages, geopolitical danger and ongoing shortages of some key commodities like wheat boding ill for global food security.

Nov 17  - US weekly ethanol production, stockpiles tumble below expectations (AgriCensus)

- Total US weekly ethanol production and stockpiles both declined in the week ending November 11, landing below market expectations, data published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday. US ethanol production decreased week-on-week by 40,000 barrels to 1.01 million barrels per day (bpd) the data showed, coming in below analyst expectations, which had called for a reduction of 4,000 barrels from the previous week to around 1.05 million barrels. The production reduction was largely due to a lower 38,000 bpd ethanol output in the Midwest – home to the majority of the country's production capacity.

- Over the week, full production equated to the consumption of 2.6 million mt of corn, down from 2.71 million mt a week earlier. Ethanol stockpiles substantially dropped by 894,000 barrels to 21.3 million barrels in the period covered by the report. The stockpile decrease had not been predicted by analysts, who had polled for a week-on-week inventory rise of 126,000 barrels. Declines in weekly stocks were observed across all regions except the Midwest, with the biggest decline of 835,000 barrels coming from the East Coast.

- Corn prices for the week averaged $6.50/bu – a 20-cent decrease from levels recorded a week earlier. Finished ethanol prices meanwhile remained unchanged at $2.48/gallon. Margins calculated through a model from Iowa State University showed that the estimated return over operating costs for the average Midwest-based plant increased by around $0.07/gallon in the week ending November 11 to $0.52/gallon.

Nov 16  - Ukraine. End of Day FOB Report. 16 November 2022
- The G20 summit is discussing the grain corridor deal.
- Against this background, one of the leading traders began to offer Ukrainian grains on FOB basis with December-January shipments.
- At the moment, demand in the Ukrainian FOB market is generated only by traders, while direct importers are looking for supplies on CIF bases.

Nov 16 - Russia wants no disruption of global food security efforts, official says
Russia wants no disruption of global food security efforts, Russia's deputy foreign minister said in an interview with the Izvestia daily, signalling that a deal allowing Ukraine to export grain via the Black Sea could be rolled over smoothly. The deal is due to roll over on Nov. 19 unless there are objections. 

Nov 16 - USDA to consult exporters in early 2023 on new sales reporting system
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has no time frame for re-launching upgrades to its weekly export sales reports after a failed roll-out in August, and will spend the first quarter working with exporters to address any problems, a USDA official said on Tuesday. Exporters are required by law to report sales of U.S. agricultural commodities to the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service, which reports weekly export sales each Thursday.

Nov 15  - Ukraine. End of Day FOB Report. 15 November 2022
- The FOB market is not functioning, and traders take their grains out of Ukrainian ports while the grain corridor is still working. Traders don't offer grains of Ukrainian origin neither on FOB bases nor on CIF markets, as the risks remain too high. The market continues to remain virtually empty as participants await news on the continuation of the grain corridor.

Nov 15  - Ukraine. Bid & Offer Report. 15 November 2022

- The CPT market of Odesa ports is beginning to revive, and some traders are looking for wheat and corn volumes with delivery by November 20.
- Negotiations on the future of the grain corridor from Ukraine are taking place during the G20 summit, and all market participants want to get more information in the coming days.
- There is still a very high supply of corn in the Ukrainian market. According to our information, many importers have bought grain for December and now have started looking for corn volumes with January deliveries.

Nov 15 - China pork imports set to rise amid questions around hog herd size
China is set to increase pork imports in the coming months, industry participants said, after losses for farmers last year in the world's top pork producer caused a reduction in hog output that appears larger than official data suggests. Pork is by far China's favourite meat and surging prices have driven up inflation in the world's second-largest economy at a time of slowing growth.  

Nov 15 - India's state wheat stock halves from a year ago
Indian wheat stocks held in government warehouses were half the level of a year ago on Nov. 1, government data showed on Monday, but inventories were marginally higher than the official target. Wheat reserves in state stores totalled 21 million tonnes at the start of this month, down from 42 million tonnes on Nov. 1, 2021, but still slightly higher than the official target of 20.5 million tonnes for the quarter ending Dec. 31.

Nov 15  - EU Agri Market Pre open Comments (StoneX)
- The Saudi wheat tender was a mixed bag of assumptions, one party is a producer so presumably that wheat sale is a a hedge. The others being traders were either shorting freight and/or shorting Baltic/Oz flat/premiums for the execution windows or assuming Russian whenever the execution window arrives is still offered aggressivley. Not many of these assumptions scream bullish expectations on the cash crowd.
- Then you look at fund positions and while they are still holding a 55k contract long on Matif wheat they are short 45k contracts CME. Net of all wheat futures they are still net long but their position is 1/4 of their most recent peak. Matif looks expensive v CME old crop.
- The Iraqi tender at face value lends some support to US values.
- Argentina got a little bit of precip but much more needed. The wheat harvest is a bust but focus shifts to corn and beans.
- A cold front movng down across Russia but for now it is staying East of the EU.

Nov 14  - Saudi Arabia’s SAGO picks up 1 million mt wheat for April-June 2023 (Agricensus)
- Saudi Arabia’s state grain importer has bought just over 1 million mt of milling wheat in its sixth tender of the current year, booking almost twice the volume it initially tendered for, the company said Monday. Saudi Arabia Grain Organization (SAGO) had initially been looking for 595,000 mt of wheat in ten shipments for supply between April and June 2023. SAGO said it had bought wheat of EU, North and South American, Australian and Black Sea origins from seven suppliers, with prices understood to have ranged from $374.25-390.59/mt.

- This included a total of 16 cargoes, including five for Jeddah Islamic Port with a quantity of 321,000 mt, six cargoes for Yanbu with a quantity of 378,000 mt, four cargoes for King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam with a quantity of 255,000 mt, and one vessel for Jazan Port with a quantity of 55,000 mt.

- According to trade sources, Cargill sold the biggest volume with 260,000 mt, followed by Olam with 195,000mt, Holbud with 189,000 mt, Agricost with 180,000 mt, Bunge and ADM with 65,000 mt each, and Viterra with 55,000 mt. SAGO said it had also completed local wheat purchases for this season, picking up 538,436 mt in total.

- The latest purchase brings SAGO’s total bookings though tenders and private buying in 2022/23 to over 4 million mt, more than 1 million mt more than the amount estimated by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Nov 14 - Malaysia warns uncertainties, volatility in palm oil market to persist in 2023
Malaysia's palm oil board on Monday warned of a tough 2023 for the market for the world's most consumed edible oil, with the persistence of global uncertainties in weather, geopolitics and economics that have caused wide price swings this year. The edible oils market has grappled with volatility triggered by recession fears, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and governments' curbing exports to protect domestic food supplies. 

Nov 14 - India's wheat planting gathers momentum, acreage up nearly 10%
Indian farmers have planted wheat on 4.5 million hectares since Oct. 1, when the current sowing season began, up 9.7% from a year ago, the latest data from the farm ministry showed on Friday. The Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers' Welfare will keep updating the provisional crop sowing figures as it gathers more information from state governments.

Nov 11  - Brazil's new government plans biodiesel mandate increase: (AgriCensus sources)
- Representatives of Brazil’s new government have signalled that it plans to return to the original planned schedule and ramp up the country’s biodiesel mandate in a move that will likely lead to the adoption of higher blend requirements in 2023, sources familiar with the matter have told Agricensus. - The biodiesel mandate defines the share of biodiesel that must go into the diesel mixture in the country and is a major outlet for soybean oil that accounts for about 70% of the feedstock used to produce biodiesel in Brazil.

- According to sources in contact with members of the new government’s transition team, the goal is to increase the mandate to 14% (B14) from January to March, and to 15% (B15) from March onwards. This timetable is in accordance with the original schedule set out in 2018 by the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) and would reverse a decision made by outgoing president, Jair Bolsonaro. Brazil’s biodiesel blend mandate was reduced from 13% to 10% in May 2021 and remained at that level throughout 2022.

- The move reinforces suggestions last week, from ministers of Bolsonaro’s outgoing government, that the country would return to the original planned programme in the new year. The president of the FPBio, the biodiesel parliament caucus, Pedro Lupion, said last week that Bolsonaro’s Minister of Mines and Energy, Adolfo Sachsida, had also indicated that this was the outgoing government’s intention.
“The consensus is that the schedule should be adhered to,” Lupion said.

- Now that the government transition has officially started, ahead of the arrival of new president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, it looks as though the new administration also intends to ramp up mandates in line with the original timetable. That said, while rumours about the restoration of B14 and B15 mandates in 2023 have been circulating for several weeks, there are market concerns as to whether ramping up the mandates to B14 in January - effectively in six weeks’ time - will even be feasible.
“I believe [B15 from March onwards] can be enforced without major issues, especially if we have a good 2022/23 soybean crop,” Daniele Siqueira, senior market analyst for Brazil-based consultancy Agrural told Agricensus.
“The big question is for January and February: Will it be B10 as it is now, B14 or B12, which would be a middle ground?” Siqueira asked.

Time
- Part of the concerns regarding a potential mandate increase for the first months of 2023 has to do with the time industries need to adjust for an improved demand outlook.
“An immediate definition would be interesting so that the industry can organise itself for the first couple of months of 2023,” Siqueira said.

- In this regard, the vice president of the Brazilian Union of Biodiesel, Ubrabio, and president of the Oleoplan group, Irineu Boff, told Agricensus that the sector expects a final decision soon.
“We have to know as soon as possible so that the industry can organise itself to supply the required volumes. To be able to meet the new mixture in January we need to know what it will be today,” Boff said.

- He pointed out that the industry has enough installed capacity to meet demand from a B20 mandate but that it is currently working with a higher-than-usual spare capacity considering the current B10 and poor margins over the past few months. However, following the original timetable for the mandate increases may be difficult even if a decision is announced in the coming days.

“Getting to B14 [in the beginning of 2023] may prove really challenging considering the good pace of exports in the end of 2022 and harvest delays that can never be ruled out,” Siqueira said.
In 2022, Brazil is forecast to export a record volume of soyoil and soymeal, taking advantage of a combination of reduced domestic demand for biodiesel and a favourable outlook for exports.

- Brazil's national food agency Conab forecasts 2.5 million mt of soyoil will be exported in 2022, a figure that will be reduced to 1.8 million mt in 2023, according to its latest report released Wednesday.
"Talking to the industries I think the consensus is that the mandate will be extended to B14 in April, and we could start with B12 in February, since there won't be enough soy in January to increase the blend," Eduardo Vanin of Brazil's Agrinvest Commodities told Agricensus.

- While some analysts take a more cautious look at the potential pace of mandate increases through the coming months, other market participants remain optimistic about the possibility to meet a higher demand from the domestic industry without losing much export market share.
"If B14 becomes a reality, these extra volumes shipped in 2022 will be used for biodiesel production, but we also believe that crushing will increase allowing more exports," projects Boff.

- Conab estimates that soybean crushing will reach 48.9 million mt in 2022 and increase to 51.4 million mt in 2023 considering an all-time high soybean output projected at 153.5 million mt for 2022/23.
“I believe that we can maintain soyoil exports at this level, even if we have to meet B15, since the new soybean crop should be abundant,” Ubrabio's managing director Donizete Tokarsk said.

Nov 11  - Ukraine. End of Day FOB Report. 11 November 2022
- The FOB market continues to be empty and illiquid in the absence of buyers for Ukrainian grain.
- There are about 30 ships in the ports of Odessa, but traders are loading grain to fulfil their old obligations under contracts only. These vessels will take about 1 million tons of grain and sunflower oil in the coming days.
- According to our information, there is progress in the negotiations on the grain corridor, and this is of course precisely what the Ukrainian market needs.

Nov 11  - Ukraine. Bid & Offer Report. 11 November 2022
- The market remains illiquid, and many buyers have stopped trading for no apparent reason. The Ukrainian spot market is oversupplied with corn, and farmers continue to look for opportunities to sell with fast payment. Against this background, Ukraine is experiencing problems with grain storage capacity. In addition, traders report difficulties with railway logistics, as there are clearly not enough grain railroad cars. The acceptance of new batches at ports is limited, and grain cargoes cannot leave the country quickly.
- The UN and Russia are holding consultations on the further functioning of the grain corridor from Ukraine, and market participants have high hopes for a solution to this issue.

Nov 11  - EU Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- Overnights see a sharp recovery in soybean prices as the Brazilian Real weakens with new President Lula appearing inclined to open the government wallet to social payments. In a normal Universe this should be bearish to beans as the weaker real should make them more competitive but as we saw in Argentina when the spending loses control then export controls follow as a mechanism to control inflation.
- Behind this China were strong meal buyers at over 700kt.
- That said, there is a huge amount of turbulance in the 13-15/bu price range and 30 cent gains/losses are also part of the noise that these price levels bring.
- The macro outlook improved a little with lower than expected inflation in the US rallying stock markets and if the inflation story is dissipating so too should the retail investors interest to be long commodities.
- That said, for sure we can say the EU is one cold weather forecast away from a nat gas rally and EU and US diesel stocks are still too low for comfort and the SPR sales will soon dissipate. The euro benefiting from the macro sentiment recovering to 1.02 against the dollar.

Nov 11 - India weighs steps to cool record wheat prices, government sources say
Soaring wheat prices in India could prompt price-cooling measures such as the release of state reserves into the open market while axing the 40% tax on imports, trade and government sources said on Thursday. The government has been trying to rein in food inflation, but its efforts have been complicated by wheat prices that have climbed to record highs. 

Nov 11 - Ukrainian farmers turn to UN-supplied grain sleeves to save their business
On a crisp and sunny November morning, Ukrainian farmers lined up to collect U.N.-supplied grain sleeves to store crops over winter as the country faces a significant shortage of storing capacity caused by Russian shelling. Ukraine has said it may lack up to 15 million tonnes of regular grain storage capacity this season to store its 60 million- to 65 million-tonne grain and oilseed harvest after a large number of silos were destroyed or damaged during the hostilities.

Nov 10  - Ukraine. Bid & Offer Report. 10 November 2022
- The market continues to be saturated with corn supply. Ukrainian farmers try to sell at least small volumes to avoid overstocking their warehouses.
- Ukrainian wheat is not in great demand. Buyers formed sufficient stocks, and now we see unsteady limited bids with fast delivery to deep-water ports of Odesa.
- The demand for sunflower seeds and sunflower oil remains pretty high. The low level of production in the EU generates high interest in Ukrainian oilseeds from European importers.

Nov 10  - Wasde: Wheat outlooks bolstered as Australia redresses Argentina losses (AgriCensus)

- The US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s November update provided only a light touch on US balances, with supply questions largely put to bed, production held at 1.6 billion bu (45 million mt) and exports unchanged at 775 million bu (21 million mt). While domestic US demand was pushed slightly higher, the bigger decisions fell to the international market – where well-documented supply problems resulted in big cuts to key producers. Nonetheless, while one hand took away the other gave back as increases in Australian, UK and Kazakhstan balances overwhelmed the reductions to Argentina – all while Russian production remained anchored at 91 million mt. Chicago wheat futures had been in the red for much of the day, but the release did little to reverse the trend leaving the March 2023 contract 10 cents lower in the aftermath of the release.

- In detail, starting with the world layout, Argentina’s production was pared back by 2 million mt to 15.5 million mt – coming in still well above local estimates, but a sizeable reduction on the 20 million mt estimate debuted back in May. That was passed directly on to the export outlook, as the agency cut it by 2 million mt to 10 million mt. Sharper eyes may have also spotted the slight reduction in the Argentinian 2021/22 production figure by 350,000 mt to 22.15 million mt. Even so, the old crop ending stock estimate, which teed up the opening balance for the 2022/23 marketing year of 276.31 million mt, was increased as the loss of production was redressed by higher 2020/21 ending stocks and a fall in global consumption. With Argentina reeling under a third consecutive La Nina, the country’s weather-based loss has been Australia’s gain and the USDA added 1.5 million mt to the country’s production outlook to 34.5 million mt, pushing exports up by 1 million mt to 26 million mt.

- Russian and Ukrainian figures were held unchanged, with production at 91 million mt and 20.5 million mt respectively, while exports also held at 42 million mt and 11 million mt.

- While Europe’s output was lightly trimmed, down 450,000 mt to 134.30 million mt, steady rains through the early part of the UK’s planting added 800,000 mt to the country’s outlook taking it to 15.4 million mt.

- The upswing in output was completed by Kazakhstan, chipping in another one million mt of production to take their balance to 14 million mt and exports to 9 million mt.

- With 2022/23 beginning stocks coming in 300,000 mt higher and global production raised by close to a million tonnes to 782.7 million mt, overall disappearance only nudged marginally higher – leaving ending stocks to rise slightly to 267.8 million mt. That ensured pressure stayed on, and futures continued to slide in the session following the report’s release. For the US itself, the only change was an increase in domestic use, where food use crept up by 7 million bushels (190,000 mt) and contributed to a reduction in year end stocks.

Nov 10  - EU Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- So I had quite the culinary journey in Dubai from Goats heads to Yemeni honey my pallet got an education. Its about as much as I learned with limited commited views on the market and a USA report that offered little new for the consumer and investor to digest on .
- There is an up tick in wheat tenders that hints at buying interest at these levels. "These levels" being Russian fob offers in the 320's rather than Baltic or French in the 330'/340's.
- The US mid terms arguably favouring the Democrates or at least curbs the Trump camps energy which is good news for Zelensky and the war effort in Ukraine IMO.
- Had a good debate last night and the production balance for Q1 hinges at the moment on what extent Brazilain corn production gains can offset Argentine production losses.
- Australia a case of seeing how bad the quality is in the East and flood damage doest tend to be isolated even when it looks extensive.
- The overall macro feel is desperately negative and the single biggest concern to long term longs (i.e. farmers unsold to new crop).
- I am in Geneva for global grain next week, I look forward to seeing you there  - Russian delegates are banned so attendee level will likely be lower. Europe remains warmer than normal.

Nov 10  - Mexico not buying U.S. yellow corn as GM ban looms, Lopez Obrador says
Mexico's government cannot make purchases of yellow corn from the United States because it does not want genetically modified (GM) corn, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Wednesday, amid pressure from its top trade partner over the future of the imports. The United States wanted to sell Mexico more yellow corn and Mexico declined, Lopez Obrador said in a regular news conference.

Nov 10  - Argentina wheat harvest slashed to 11.8 mln tonnes, more cuts possible

Argentina's 2022/23 wheat harvest forecast has been cut to 11.8 million tonnes, down from 13.7 million tonnes previously, the Rosario grains exchange said on Wednesday, warning it could fall further amid a protracted drought that is hammering farmers. The estimate is the latest in a series of cuts to the South American country's wheat production outlook, a blow to global supply already hit by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and unfavorable weather in the United States.

Nov 10  - U.N., Russia to talk Ukraine grain deal on Friday ahead of extension deadline
Top U.N. officials will meet a senior Russian delegation in Geneva on Friday to discuss extending a Ukraine Black Sea grain export deal and efforts to smooth shipments of Russian food and fertilizers to global markets, the United Nations said. The deal allowing the export of food and fertilizers from several of Ukraine's Black Sea ports - brokered by the United Nations and Turkey on July 22 - could expire on Nov. 19 if Russia or Ukraine object to its extension.

Nov 10  - Algerian wheat purchase on Tuesday seen at about 510,000 T
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have bought about 510,000 tonnes of milling wheat in an international tender on Tuesday, European traders said in new assessments on Wednesday. This was above most estimates of around 400,000 tonnes made by traders on Tuesday evening.

Nov 09  - Trade draws hope on Turkish minister grain corridor comments (AgriCensus)

- Turkey's minister of defence has said that the government in Ankara will offer to extend the Black Sea grain corridor initiative for another year in a move that could guarantee exports from Ukraine and cap runaway prices. Trade sources took the move as a bearish signal amid improved supply prospects for corn and wheat, with Euronext wheat futures, and Chicago corn and wheat futures posting losses. Turkish, Russian and Ukrainian media sources all quoted Hulusi Akar, a former army general and now Turkey's defence minister, after he proposed the year-long extension to the deal late on Monday, but no further details were given. However, the move comes after Turkish authorities appear to have played a vital role in bringing Russia back into the agreement after the country unilaterally, but briefly, withdrew at the end of October, and trade sources are hopeful that it is the latest signal that the grain corridor could be extended beyond mid-November.

- As such, more supply is likely to bring more competitive prices in the months ahead.
“People are talking about that and so far I see that they believe there could be extension on the agreement,” one Black Sea trader told Agricensus.
“I realize that most of the buyers have stopped or slowed down their purchases and many believe that Russia somehow will continue [to participate in] the grain deal,” the trader continued, although he expected some conditions potentially around improved financing and access to bank lines to be applied.
“The market is happy for the corridor because we need to import commodities. Besides if Ukraine is in the market, we get much more competitive prices,” a second trader focussing on import market said.
“Nobody knows for sure, but everybody wants to believe it,” the trader said,

- He also added that for Turkey the continuation of the grain deal is not only about more grains available for import, but also about the stable and strong flow through the Bosporus canal, as Turkey has become a vital logistics channel.
“Turkish buyers are always confident in such bearish news,” a broker said.

- Meanwhile, some trade sources were not that optimistic about the corridor, with no positive changes expected till the end of 2022 year.

Nov 09 - Argentina's farmers notch sales of more than 70% of soybean crop
Argentine farmers sold as of last week about 72% of the current soybean harvest, government data showed on Tuesday, a key crop especially important since it helps generate much-needed hard currency for the country's cash-strapped government. During the same time last season, farmers sold a little over 73% of the soybean harvest. 

Nov 09 - Both 2022 and 2023 U.S. corn, soy crops come under scrutiny this week
While analysts await the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s updated view on the 2022 corn and soybean crops, the 2023 discussion can already begin as the agency this week also offered its first glimpse into next season. USDA will publish its monthly supply and demand reports on Wednesday at noon EST (1700 GMT). Tables from its annual long-term baseline projections, including the first unofficial crack at 2023-24, were released on Monday.

Nov 08  - Ukraine. End of Day FOB Report. 08 November 2022
Today, a buyer has entered the Ukrainian FOB market, but in general, the market remains weak. In fact, the deep-water ports market is not active, and its participants prefer to wait for further developments around the grain corridor from Ukraine. The situation remains unclear, and we are likely to see an increase in market liquidity only after the decision on the grain agreement.

Nov 08  - Ukraine. Bid & Offer Report. 08 November 2022

The market demand begins to grow on DAP bases, and we see an increase in grain and oilseeds bids from importers.
- The wheat supply is minimal, as Ukrainian farmers are in no hurry to sell a lot of grain, expecting an increase in prices.

- The situation with corn is totally different. There is a lot of corn in the market, and many growers are trying to sell their volumes on the spot market, but demand for spot supplies is limited.
- Besides this, we can also see an increase in demand for sunflower seeds and soybeans. There is enough supply for soybeans, but there are few offers in the sunflower market, as farmers expect further price growth.

Nov 08 - U.S. wheat ratings improve a bit; corn, soy harvests advance
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday rated 30% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, up 2 percentage points from the previous week but still the lowest for this time of year in records dating to the late 1980s. The ratings also fell short of estimates from analysts surveyed by Reuters who on average had expected an improvement of 3 percentage points. 

Nov 08 - Crop Watch: Final corn fields disappoint, producers look to 2023
The final three U.S. Crop Watch fields were harvested within the last week, all corn, and two of them fell short of expectations, consistent with this year’s trend. In 2022, six of the 11 Crop Watch corn yield scores came in below their last pre-harvest prediction, three came in above and the remaining two hit expectations.

Nov 07 - Ukraine Bid & Offer Report. 07 November 2022
- There is a vast supply of Ukrainian corn in the market, and many growers do not know where to direct their sales. The harvesting company is underway in Ukraine, and, at the same time, there are old-crop corn stocks within the country. The corn spot market isn't active, and buyers are considering only supply options for December.

- According to our information, traders are not yet buying grain in the deep-water Odesa ports, but new vessels are actively entering the ports,  and now the work is focused on the unloading of grain terminals.

Nov 07 - China lockdowns overshadow palm oil outlook despite output slowdown
The global outlook for palm oil remains uncertain, with strict pandemic policies in major importer China weighing on demand, while high energy prices and a slowdown in output provide support, leading industry analysts said on Friday. Malaysian benchmark futures earlier this year had surged to record levels of more than 7,200 ringgit ($1,517.07)per tonne due to top producer Indonesia's export restrictions, which culminated in a three-week export ban late in April. 

Nov 04  - Ukraine. Bid & Offer Report. 04 November 2022

- Demand for grain is increasing in small Ukrainian ports, and the market is gradually filled with liquidity. Grain buyers are not yet very active on DAP bases, and we see more demand for sunflower oil and meal here. In addition, European buyers are actively looking for volumes of sunflower seeds, as they are forced to import much more due to lower production in the EU.

Nov 04  - India to consume 26-27 million mt of edible oils by 2025-2026:SEA (AgriCensus)

- India is likely to consume 26-27 million mt of edible oils by 2025-2026, according to estimates by the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) presented at the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference (IPOC) in Bali Friday. The figure is higher than the estimates for the 2021/22 season, which were pegged at 22.7-23 million mt.

- India‘s oilseed production is also estimated to hit 38-40 million mt in 2025/26 compared with 33 million mt in 2021-2022. Domestic vegetable oil production is also expected to hit 13.5-14 million mt in 2025/26, higher than the 10 million mt for 2021/22.
“This gap of 11-12 million mt may be bridged through imports. The quantum of the type of oil is dependent on price parity and availability in the international market,” said Dr B.V Mehta, the Executive Director of the SEA at the conference.
“Imports of vegetable oils have reduced from its peak at 15.5 million mt in 2018/19 to 13.5 million mt last oil year due to Covid-19. In the past 20 years, import volume has increased 2.6 times while cost has gone up close to 27 times,” added Mehta.

- In terms of the breakdown of types of edible oil consumed in India, palm oil makes up 33% while soybean oil makes up 23%, rapeseed makes up 15% and sunflower makes up 8%. The balance is made up by cotton and groundnut oil. For 2023, India is expected to import 13 million mt of palm oil and 1 million mt of soybean oil.

- SEA earlier estimated in May that India is likely to import 12.9 million mt of edible oils from November 2021 to October 2022.

Nov 04  - Ukraine. End of Day FOB Report. 03 November 2022
- The Ukrainian FOB market has recovered slightly. The first bids/offers appeared today, but so far, only one or two traders have entered the market.

- Many buyers switched to trading in Constanta port, so there is a high probability that Ukraine's FOB market will stay in a low liquidity state. The risks remain too high in the region of Ukraine's Black Sea ports, and many buyers are just passively watching the development of the situation around the grain corridor.
- Traders report the return of demand for Ukrainian grain from the EU. European importers are looking for feed grains and sunflower oil batches.

Nov 04  - EU Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- The selloff in FANGS and tech. no proliferating to job layoffs with multiple large cap companies announcing sharp reductions in staffing numbers. This creates added uncertainty to the demand
picture.
- Vegoils not suffering any demand fears, at least not in the US as beanoil traces new highs and Canola following suit.
- Cotton futures rallying and while I dont follow that market greatly, those that do said it was finding support because of expectations that China were going to ease their approach to Covid.
- With the US quickly making their beanoil disapear its only a matter of time until they pull more from Canada which leaves less for China which means they turn more to Australia for Canola and substitute to palmoil that looks very good value to them.
- The EU corn crop is all but done and was one largely to forget with low yields and for some regions significant toxin challenges.
- The games between Turkey - Russia and everyone else continue and looks like Putin pushing Turkey to make it difficult for Finland & Sweden to join NATO in return for allowing the corridor to persist. The trade will continue to struggle to comfortably take wheat market positions.

Nov 03 - Ukraine grain export deal resumes days after Russia suspends involvement
Russia has said it would resume its participation in a deal freeing up grain exports from Ukraine, reversing a decision that world leaders warned would increase hunger globally. Russia, whose forces invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, announced the reversal on Wednesday after Turkey and the United Nations helped keep Ukrainian grain flowing for several days without a Russian role in inspections. 

Nov 03 - Brazil moves closer to China corn exports as Beijing approves traders
Chinese customs updated its list of approved Brazilian corn exporters on Wednesday, a move a Brazilian agriculture official said could jumpstart sales of corn to the world's second-largest economy. The approvals could reshape global trade flows and result in fewer sales for farmers in the United States, the world's top corn supplier.

Nov 03  - EU Agri market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- So it seems every day I take a few days off the grain trade throws a hissy fit. There remains some uncertainty over the corridor and as long as the war persists there will always be that uncertainty. It will just undulate into and out of our consciousness.
- StoneX corn and soybean yields were up on the prior survey estimates and reflect the "not as bad as expected" camp.
- At face value Bolsonaro accepting defeat is long term supportive of corn/beans as Lula is more likely to slow the rate of crop area increase. Short term it may be an incentive for farmers to make more immediate and greater area increases while they can.
- Interest rate increases remain a theme and central bankers almost in unison across the globe raising them. The US have moved now to 4%, the UK not far behind and Lagard suggesting more increases to come. This all weighs on sentiment and ultimately demand. We just need to wash out the mountain of saving built up over covid.
- Dairy prices are sliding.
- Beanoil continues to reflect the inelastic nature of the US market. Like many markets we have this weird undulation between mass correlation and total correlation breakdown.

Nov 03  - Wheat futures tumble after Russia rejoins Black Sea grain corridor pact (AgriCensus)

- Wheat futures plunged and market participants sighed with relief after Russia said that they will rejoin the Black Sea grains export corridor accord after pulling out of it this weekend after a reported drone attack on its fleet in Sevastopol.
“The only single reason I see wheat lower today is the Russia announcement. Nothing else suggests a bearish undertone.” senior grain and oilseed commodity analyst at Futures International Terry Reilly told Agricensus.

- As of 1139 Eastern time, Chicago SRW December futures were down 6.3% on Tuesday's settlement at $8.45/bu, while March tumbled 6% at $8.64/bu. Kansas City HRW December and March futures contracts both dropped 4.6% settlement to $9.44/bu and $9.41/bu, respectively.

- Futures surged on Monday after Russia announced its withdrawal from the grain corridor agreement, which threatened to end grain shipments from deep-water ports in Ukraine, the world’s fifth-biggest wheat exporter prior to Russia’s invasion in February.
“Yesterday and the previous day speculative short covering as Chicago led wheat complex, today Chicago leads all lower. Headline trading 101,” Jeffrey McPike of McWheat Inc. told Agricensus.

- In Europe, the front-month December Euronext milling wheat futures contract, which is often known by its old name of Matif, traded at €339.75/mt, down €18/mt, while March decreased by €16.75/mt to €340/mt.

- Russia and Ukraine, which were wheat importers when they were part of the Soviet Union, have boosted production over the last 30 years and were responsible for more than 20% of global exports in 2021. Corn futures in Chicago followed wheat lower, with December futures down by 1.8% to $6.85/bu and March down by 1.7% to $6.90/bu.

Nov 02  - Ukraine. End of Day FOB Report. 02 November 2022

- Today, traders didn't provide data on Ukrainian deep-water FOB market prices. Market participants are looking forward to furthering developments after the Russian side returns to the grain corridor agreement.

- Traders remain out of the FOB market as they are awaiting approval from insurance companies. According to our information, three or four vessels will arrive in Ukraine, and about five will leave Ukrainian ports tomorrow.
- Meanwhile, market supply is increasing, and Ukrainian farmers are trying to sell large amounts of corn.
- There is still an active market demand for sunflower oil and meal. European crushing plants are unable to complete all the contracts, and they are ready to buy oil batches in Ukraine.

Nov 02  - Russia Agrees to Resume Ukraine Grain Export Deal; Wheat Tumbles

- Wheat prices plunged after Russia agreed to resume the deal allowing safe passage of Ukrainian crop exports, reversing a weekend announcement that sowed chaos through agricultural markets and sent prices soaring. Russia’s Defense Ministry confirmed Moscow is resuming its participation in the Black Sea grain-export deal, after receiving written guarantees from Ukraine that the safe-passage corridor will only be used for grain exports. Ukraine has repeatedly said it would not use the corridor for military purposes. The future of the agreement -- brokered in July by Turkey and the United Nations and seen as critical to shoring up global food supplies -- was thrown into question after Russia’s announcement on Saturday that it was suspending involvement. But Turkey and the UN pressed ahead with shipments even without Russian participation.

- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan earlier said shipments via the Ukraine grain corridor would resume on Wednesday, citing assurances from Russian authorities made earlier to Turkish counterparts.

- Some vessels continued to depart from Ukraine on Monday and Tuesday, but the UN announced late yesterday that there were no shipments planned on Wednesday. Russian officials had issued several warnings that Moscow couldn’t guarantee the safety of ships traveling the corridor without its participation.

- Chicago wheat futures plunged as much as 6.3%, after surging in the first two days of the week. Grain prices have been volatile over the past few months amid speculation over the fate of the deal which was set to be renewed in mid-November.

Nov 02  - Ukraine. End of Day FOB Report

- The Ukrainian deep-water FOB market didn't work again today, and traders tried to move some old contacts for shipments from Constanta port. According to our information, traders don't have enough grain to fulfil all obligations and may have to default on some contracts.
- The sunflower oil market remains very active. Traders are looking for volumes of Ukrainian SF oil as the demand from European buyers is growing. Against this background, almost all importers feel a supply shortage for December-February.

Nov 02  - Pakistan preliminarily buys around 685,000 mt of milling wheat (AgriCensus)

- Pakistan-based state-owned entities have secured a total of 685,000 mt of milling wheat split between the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) and the Ministry of Finance's Economic Coordination Committee (ECC), trade sources have told Agricensus Tuesday. For TCP, the agency has awarded a purchase of 385,000 mt of wheat, while ECC approved a government-to-government offer to buy another 300,000 mt.

- The 385,000 mt award came after TCP launched a tender to buy half a million tonnes, with the price paid said to be around $373/mt CIFFO for November-December shipment dates. TCP received eight offers in its tender, but only Solaris agreed to discount its  offer to match the lowest one in the tender from Aston, with the final volume split between the two as Solaris sold 265,000 mt and Astong 120,000 mt. The volume is expected to be sourced from Russia.

- Along with that, the ECC also approved an offer made by the Russian state company Prodintorg on a government-to-government basis for 300,000 mt of milling wheat at $372/mt CIFFO for November-January 15 delivery. TCP’s last successful tender closed on July 25 when the agency booked 186,000 mt of milling wheat for October 16 arrival and paid $407.49/mt CFR Karachi.

- Pakistan's Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) had already approved the import of 3 million mt of wheat earlier in May, with the most recent purchase bringing the total booked through TCP-backed tenders for shipment in the 2022/23 marketing year to 1.4 million mt.

Nov 02 - Zelenskiy demands firmer defence of Ukraine grains export corridor
The world must respond firmly to any Russian attempts to disrupt Ukraine's grain export corridor, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said, as more ships were loading despite Moscow suspending its participation in a U.N.-brokered deal. One of the global consequences of Russia's war on its neighbour has been food shortages and a cost of living crisis in many countries, and a deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey on July 22 had provided safe passage for vessels carrying grain and other fertiliser exports.  

Nov 02 - Argentina set to permit wheat export delays amid drought
Argentina's government is set to announce measures, potentially within days, to allow wheat exporters to delay agreed shipments after a major drought hammered the crop, raising concern about domestic supply. A source at the country's CEC grains exporting chamber, which represents companies buying the grain, said measures would be released "in the coming days" to allow firms to reschedule agreed wheat exports without facing the normal 15% fine from authorities.

Nov 01  - U.N. Black Sea grain pact under threat as Russia quits
Grain was flowing out of Ukraine at a record pace on Monday under an initiative led by the United Nations aimed at easing global food shortages despite Russia warning it was risky to continue after it pulled out of the pact. Russia said on Monday that the deal was hardly feasible as it was impossible to guarantee the safety of shipping after its withdrawal over the weekend following what it said was a major Ukrainian drone attack on its fleet in Crimea. 

Nov 01  - Ukraine says it will press on with Black Sea grain deal
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday that his country would continue exporting grain from its Black Sea ports under a U.N. programme despite Russia's pullout because the shipments offered stability to world food markets. He made his comments following talks with Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala. Russia announced on Saturday that it was suspending its role in the U.N.-backed initiative that escorts cargo ships through the Black Sea. 

Nov 01  - Pakistan government approves plan to buy 300,000 tonnes of Russian wheat
Pakistan's government on Monday approved a plan to buy 300,000 metric tonnes of wheat from Russia, the finance ministry said in a statement. The country's Economic Coordination Committee, which is headed by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, approved the plan proposed by the ministry of commerce to procure wheat from the Russian government.  

Nov 01  - India allows rice exports backed by already issued letters of credit
India said it will allow cargoes of white and brown rice backed by letters of credit issued before Sept. 9 to be shipped overseas, a measure that provides some relief to exporters grappling with fresh government curbs. The world's biggest exporter of rice on Sept. 8 banned exports of broken rice and imposed a 20% duty on exports of various grades as it sought to boost domestic supply and calm local prices after below-average monsoon rainfall curtailed planting.

Oct 31  - Ukraine. End of Day FOB Report.

- Traders have not provided any FOB market prices. The market was not functioning today, and the participants have been monitoring the situation throughout the trading day.
- According to our information, ship traffic from Ukrainian ports continues, but no new ships have arrived from Turkish territorial waters. Currently, port operations have been suspended. Several vessels remain at the roadstead, and they will be loaded soon. The total grain stocks in Odesa ports are about 2.2-2.4 mln. t. In the next few days, the volume of shipments will be only 100-150 thousand tons, so the ports are not yet accepting new grain batches.

Oct 31  - Ukrainian Bid & Offer Report.

- The Ukrainian FOB market stopped functioning after the Russian side announced its withdrawal from the grain corridor agreement. There are no sellers and buyers in the market, and traders focus on the trade from Constanta ports.
- According to our information, ships loaded with grain have left Odesa today, and traders report that vessels that are loading now will also be able to leave Ukrainian ports. This point is guaranteed by the Turkish side, but the new ships are not arriving from Turkey to Ukraine.
And despite this, the demand for grain remains pretty weak on alternative bases.

Oct 31  - Brazil Elects Lula, a Leftist Former Leader, in a Rebuke of Bolsonaro

- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be the country’s next president, officials confirmed ( with 50.90% voters ), after a long and bitter campaign between the former president and the current far-right leader. It was a rejection of Jair Bolsonaro’s far-right movement and his divisive four years in office.
- Brazil ejects Bolsonaro and brings back the former leftist leader Lula.
- Lula’s victory likely means big changes for Brazil, though his specific plans are vague.
- Bolsonaro’s allies and supporters had warned of fraud. Then they begrudgingly accepted defeat. Bolsonaro lost. Will he accept the results?
- Bolsonaro, in defeat, may now face charges.

Oct 31 - Grain market braces for price flurry as Black Sea corridor in doubt
Wheat futures are expected to leap on Monday as Russia's withdrawal from a Black Sea corridor agreement puts Ukrainian exports at risk, analysts said. Moscow suspended its participation in the Black Sea deal on Saturday, in response to what it called a major Ukrainian drone attack on its fleet in Russian-annexed Crimea. 

Oct 31 - U.N., Turkey, Ukraine press ahead with Black Sea grain deal despite Russian pullout
The United Nations, Turkey and Ukraine pressed ahead to implement a Black Sea grain deal and agreed on a transit plan for Monday for 16 vessels to move forward, despite Russia's withdrawal from the pact that has allowed the export of Ukrainian agricultural products to world markets. Russia, which invaded Ukraine on. Feb 24, on Saturday halted its role in the Black Sea deal for an "indefinite term", cutting shipments from one of the world's top grain exporters, because it said it could not "guarantee safety of civilian ships" travelling under the pact after an attack on its Black Sea fleet.

Oct 29  - US soybean cargoes rumoured switched to Brazil amid Mississippi woes (AgriCensus)

- Chinese buyers were heard to have switched a number of optional origin soybean cargoes from the US to Brazil this week due to uncertainties around transportation disruptions in the Mississippi river that may limit soybean availability at Gulf ports, Brazilian sources have told Agricensus Friday. Optional origin cargoes are deals in which the buyer can swich origins without paying a penalty fee as happens when buyers cancel purchases to substitute them for volumes from other origins – a process colloquially known as a “washout”. There was no confirmation as for how many cargoes have been switched out of the US, but loading months were said to range from October to February. Despite the wide range of delivery months, the optional origin cargoes that have been shifted to Brazil are thought to be for nearby deliveries considering the Mississippi issues in the US and spot soybean demand in China.

- Earlier this week Agricensus heard there is a lack of offers for nearby soybean deliveries at US Gulf ports as farmers and traders do not feel confident they will be able to deliver agreed volumes as barge freight down the Mississippi river continue to face severe headwinds on low water levels. The period from September to early-January is typically the main export window for US soybeans as the North American country’s oilseed crop is harvested in September through October and is typically more competitive during these months than its main competitors in South America.
“Some are reporting that China is attempting to buy cargoes from both Brazil and Argentina which is unusual for this time of year,” Larry Shonkwiler of Advance Trading told Agricensus.

- Agricensus heard Chinese buyers had snapped up one Brazilian soybean cargo for November/December loading on Thursday while the bulk of Chinese buying interest seems to have turned towards South America’s new crop due to be harvested from late-January onwards. Agricensus heard between nine and 13 new crop Brazilian and Argentine cargoes have been booked this week alone. A China-based analyst has told Agricensus that the country may even shrink down its December and January soybean demand as domestic crushers prefer to wait for Brazil’s new crop rather than securing nearby US volumes.

- The rumours heard on Friday of soybean cargoes being switched to Brazil could not be confirmed by US-based sources at the time of press, but most agreed that it both made sense and fitted a recent pattern.
“A good amount [of soybean] sales have been switching Gulf to Pacific Northwest, but [we are] hearing nothing being switched near-term to Brazil,” Shonkwiler said.

- Any optional origin switches to Brazil could represent another blow to US soybean exporters during their main export window this marketing year. The US has faced fierce competition from Argentine soybeans in September when the South American country had a preferential export exchange rate policy in place – referred to as the “soy dollar” – and is now struggling with low Mississippi water levels.
Analysts and traders expect the Mississippi will take another month or two to fully recover.

- Considering all these headwinds, a downgrade to US’s 2022/23 exports as estimated by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) cannot be ruled out.

Oct 28 - Rains bring relief to Argentine wheat and corn -Buenos Aires gains exchange
Much-needed rain improved conditions for 2022/23 wheat and corn in Argentina, where a prolonged drought has generated losses and area cuts for both crops, the Buenos Aires grains exchange (BdeC) said on Thursday. The country's main agricultural regions received between 20 and 100 millimeters of water from Tuesday to Wednesday, which brought relief for crops after significant rainfalls had not been recorded in the region since May this year. 

Oct 28 - Mexico to proceed with GMO corn ban, seeks international grain deals
Mexico is considering direct agreements with farmers in the United States, Argentina and Brazil to secure non-genetically modified yellow corn imports, the country's deputy agriculture minister said, adding that a 2024 ban on GM corn would not be amended. Deputy Agriculture Minister Victor Suarez told Reuters Mexico is on track to halve its U.S. imports of yellow corn, used primarily for livestock feed, when the ban comes into effect in 2024 via increased domestic production.

Oct 28  - China’s soybean crush volumes miss expectations, stocks drop further (AgriCensus)
- China’s soybean crush volume declined last week to fall to a lower level than market participants had expected, while soybean stocks continued to fall on reduced imports, weekly data from the National Grain and Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) showed Thursday. The country’s crushing level fell by 40,000 mt on the week to 1.61 million mt, down 650,000 mt from the previous month but unchanged from the level recorded a year ago.
“As some crushing plants have restricted or shut down production due to deficit soybean supply, last week’s domestic soybean crush was lower than expected,” said CNGOIC.
“Despite relatively low soymeal stocks in crushing plants and improved crush margins based on spot prices, as soybean arrivals were low, crushing plants were unable to raise crush volume significantly.
- Soybean crush is expected to remain around 1.65 million mt this week,” the agency added. Soybean stocks continued to drop on the week to 3.3 million mt, down 300,000 mt from the prior week and 1.63 million mt from the previous year. Soymeal stocks also fell week-on-week to 260,000 mt on lowered crushing outputs and strong demand from the feed industry. The level was down 40,000 mt from a week ago and 220,000 mt from the same point last year.

- Similarly, soyoil inventories in China's major oil plants declined to 750,000 mt, 40,000 mt lower than the previous week and down 100,000 mt from a year earlier. 

Oct 27 - Bunge lifts 2022 outlook after quarterly earnings beat, shares rally
Agricultural commodities trader Bunge Ltd on Wednesday raised its full-year earnings outlook after adjusted third-quarter profit topped expectations, sending its shares up more than 5%. Tight global crop supplies and strong demand have benefited supply chain middlemen including Bunge, which buys and sells crops like soybeans and corn and processes them into food, feed and biofuel. 

Oct 27 - Argentine wheat harvest forecast slashed again amid drought
Argentina's 2022/23 wheat harvest will come in at 13.7 million tonnes, the Rosario grain exchange said on Wednesday, a sharp cut from its previous forecast of 15 million tonnes amid a protracted drought that has hammered farmers in the country. Argentina is a major international supplier of wheat, a role that has come into greater focus amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine that has dented global grains supply.

Oct 27  - EU Agri Market Pre Open Comments ( StoneX )
- The ECB are likely to increase interest rates today and the euro rallying back above parity ahead of that move. Given the past tendency to lag but follow the US trajectories its likely to maintain a cycle of rising rates.
- Major german chemical manufacters hinting at long term contraction of industry with the era of cheap Russian gas seemingly behind us. Do they move to Africa, Middle East....even Russia?
- Either way if the ECB raising interest rates is bullish the euro its likely the only thing bullish about it.
- A weaker dollar tends to support commodities. Corn and beans stuck on some sort of every thightening range unable to either rally or contract values.
- Ahead of our conference in Dubai I am working on slides around the general theme of re-assessing our approach to the market, to trading and hedging. In the same way the calendar has BC and AD the commodity markets feel like we have just had our own step move. BC and AC - Before covid and after covid. So much has changed since the first cases of covid back in Autumn 2019.
- Some hedging tools have effectively died (Black sea wheat futures), some are contracting in volumes (ag. futures), some are increasing (ag. options). The entire S&D outlook needs a blank canvas.

Oct 26  - Potato harvest at its final stage in Canada (IHSmarkit)

- Production expected to increase y/y in Alberta and Manitoba
- Lower y/y output in the Eastern provinces

- Yields are variable due to high summer temperatures and despite improved weather conditions during the harvest in September. The final output should be slightly lower than the 123 million cwt totalled in 2021. Acreage in the country were flat this season and eastern Canada did not have a bumper crop as last year, according to estimates from the organisation United Potato Growers of Canada (UPGC).

- Prince Edward Island growers had more than 90% of their crop harvested by 20 October. Hurricane Fiona has delayed starting the storage harvest, but excellent weather since the storm has enabled growers to make up time and harvest looks likely to be completed on time. Yields are expected to be close to last year, and quality is excellent. Harvesting conditions have been very good, but moisture differences between western and eastern parts of the island have caused some differences in the output. Production is currently estimated in the range of 25.7-27 million cwt down 5-10% y/y.

- Lower yields were reported for New Brunswick, but the crop looks decent overall. Harvest conditions have generally been good and without very cold temperatures. Since there was not a bumper crop last year and potatoes are showing lower specific gravity, processors demand is expected to be high. The specific gravity measures the solids (dry matter) in tubers and it is an important quality criterion for processing potatoes. Higher specific gravity means that potatoes have higher dry matter and lower water content. Low specific gravity potatoes are costlier to process. Frying time needs to be extended to reduce water content and more potatoes are needed per tonne of finished product. This means that New Brunswick might not be able to export much of its raw material and processors will need to purchase more potatoes to meet their needs. The final production should be lower than the 18.2 million cwt totalled in 2021, but 8% up from the last five-year average.

- The fresh potato harvest in Quebec is wrapping up, with some recent delays due to very cold temperatures in the evenings and mornings shortening the actual time in the field. Overall growers seem satisfied with the crop, reporting good quality. However, growers are seeing only average yields and a bit smaller size. Estimated production is slightly under last year’s 14.6 million cwt, but well above the five-year average.

- Most potatoes in Ontario are now in storage and the crop is looking good. There were differences reported regionally in yields to be attributed to a very dry growing season for the province and not all farms with irrigation. High temperatures in August and September have declined, so growers should not have issues with warm potatoes as they had last season. Production is estimated to be down 9% from last year to 8.15 million cwt, but still on track with the five-year average.

- Harvest in Manitoba has now been completed for the most part and reports are positive. Quality is good and yields are average or above average. The UPGC production for the province is poised to be up by 6% this year against 24.18 million cwt in 2021, in line with the increase in planted acres and despite the cold wet spring that delayed planting up to three weeks in some areas.

- The harvest in Saskatchewan is now complete for the most part with the weather cooperating very well for the growers. Quality has been reported as excellent with the province experiencing good growing conditions all season.

- A hailstorm back in July as well as high temperatures through August have resulted in early reports of disappointing yields in Alberta, but conditions have improved since, helping growers with their harvest. Quality is very good, but tubers’ size is variable. The resulting supply could be smaller than what processors need. Production in Alberta is poised to be up by 5% overall compared with 24.6 million cwt of last year.

- British Columbia growers reported a lighter crop and smaller tubers size, but digging is still ongoing so the province could close the season with higher tonnages than initially expected. Extremely late planting, high temperatures in August and September, and little rains have all contributed to the reduced volumes and sizes. Production should be down by 8% over 2021 final figures estimated at 2.0 million cwt.

Trade
- Exports of Canadian frozen French Fries has been sustained in the first eight months of 2022, soaring by 14.6% y/y to 900,000 tonnes. About 88% of the total was delivered to the US following a 15% increase in shipments. A strengthening of exports toward this market cannot be ruled out as the crop suffered heatwave in some growing regions resulting in small sized tubers. Canadian exports to Mexico rose by 54% y/y to 26,155 tonnes with the country becoming the second-largest destination market of Canadian frozen fries ahead of Japan whose imports from Canada fell by 41% to 23,200 tonnes. The decline in exports to the Asian market is mainly linked to transport delays and disruption to logistics which has forced Japanese buyers to rely on alternative suppliers including Belgium and the Netherlands whose exports to the country rose by 51% and 34% y/y in January-August 2022.

Oct 26  - US peanut harvesting comfortably ahead of year-ago levels (IHSmarkit)

- 68% of the crop is now harvested
- Virginia is leading with 85% of peanuts harvested
- Florida a close second at 84% harvested

- Harvesting of the 2022 peanut crop has reached 19% above the pace of a year ago at 68% completed on average across the eight key states in the week to 23 October. There have been challenges presented by Hurricane Ian in certain states and other adverse weather but the overall result remains favourable. Rains from the hurricane were also of some benefit at times – such as in those states suffering from a particular lack of moisture – as noted in previous reports on the crop progress.

Alabama
Peanut digging and harvest continued across the state.
Florida
Dry weather and early frosts expedited peanut digging and harvest activities last week.
Georgia
Peanut fields continued to be dug and harvested, although cool temperatures slowed peanut maturity. Peanut yields in central Georgia were reported to be slightly below average.
Oklahoma
Peanuts mature reached 91%, up 10 points from the previous year and eight points above normal. Peanuts harvested reached 45%, up 13 points from the previous year and three points higher than normal.
South Carolina
Peanuts continued to be dug and harvested at a steady pace.
Texas
Peanut harvest continued to progress statewide. Peanuts mature reached 70%, up nine points from the previous year and 15 points above normal.
Virginia
Peanut harvesting continues.

Oct 26 - ADM raises 2022 profit outlook after third-quarter earnings beat
Global grains merchant Archer-Daniels-Midland Co on Tuesday posted its strongest third-quarter profit on record on robust demand for grain and oilseeds and tight supplies, and said full-year earnings would exceed previous guidance. Along with strong demand, stout soy processing margins would more than offset pressure from lower ethanol margins and reduced U.S. crop exports through the end of the year. 

Oct 26 - Rains hold up soy planting in Brazil but dry season not ruled out
Recent heavy rains in portions of Brazil’s southern soybean belt have begun to slow sowing efforts there, but the precipitation may be somewhat welcome for now after dry weather slashed yields last season. Soil moisture returned to higher levels over the winter and is mostly ample for this year’s planting, though the state hit hardest by last year's drought once again faces a drying trend, and Brazil’s most productive state is not completely safe, either.

Oct 26  - ADM’s Q3 profits surge 118% y-o-y on surging global grain demand (AgriCensus)

- Net earnings for global agricultural commodities producer and trader Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM) surged by 118% in the second quarter of 2022 compared with the same period of last year, to $1.23 billion, or $1.83 per share ($1.86 on an adjusted basis), the company said Tuesday. ADM’s net earnings in the first nine months ended September 30 reached $3.3 billion, up 74% from $1.9 billion in the previous year.

- The increases came as the firm benefited from higher demand for food and fuel and tighter supplies after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine blocked grain export from the Black Sea regions. ADM achieved “exceptional results” in its Ag Services & Oilseeds segment, with an operating profit in the third quarter increasing 74% versus a year ago to $1.075 billion. Within the segment, operating profit in Ag Services reached $292 million, jumping over 711% from $36 million recorded in the previous year with higher volumes in North and South America underpinned by solid freight margins.
“The short crops in South America supported US exports, driving improved volumes and margins in North American origination, which had significant negative impacts from Hurricane Ida in the prior year,” the company said in its quarterly financial statement.
“South American origination saw improved volumes and margins driven by increased farmer selling in addition to higher volumes through our export facilities”, it added.

- The crushing business delivered higher year-on-year increases in operating profit, with a surge of 24% to $346 million, supported by “resilient global demand” for meal and oil. According to ADM, Stronger rapeseed margins in the EMEA region were matched by solid soybean crush margins in North America which helped offset lower crush volumes from idle facilities in Ukraine and Paraguay.

- Operating profit in the first nine months of 2022 for Ag Services & Oilseeds came in at $3.2 billion, up $1.2 billion from $2.0 billion for the same period the previous year. In the Carbohydrate Solutions segment, Q2 operating profit jumped 45% from the same period last year to $309 million on solid demand for ethanol and corn oil and higher ethanol and sweetener margins.

- The nutrition segment saw operating profit increase to $177 million, up a 0.6% year-on-year, with strong demand for plant-based proteins within the human nutrition sub-segment offset by weaker demand for protein feed within the animal nutrition business.  
“Strong demand for plant-based proteins, as well as solid performance in texturants, drove continued growth in Specialty Ingredients,” the report said.

- ADM's total revenue in the third quarter of 2022 reached $24.7 billion, up 22% from $20.3 billion in the same period of last year.

Oct 25  - EU Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- Asian shares went into capitulation mode yesterday as the Japanese gov. struggles to prop up its currency and as the market looks to China where they seem to be, well more Chinese in their internal affairs. That is more centralised and less inclined to be open about economic affairs. The trade taking the view that if you are withholding economic data we will assume that your economic situation is far worse than we might have thought. Chinese economic data is becoming more and more Chinese whispers. This further creates unease about the demand picture to there.
- The EU so far has been getting get out of jail card in terms of the mild winter and subsequent lower nat gas prices.
- The inflows of LNG are becoming more efficient, industrial demand is lower and this all bodes well for lower Nitrogen costs for the spring as suggestions are now that fertiliser manufacturers are cranking production back up.
- The euro is actually hanging in there pretty well all things considered.
-The Australian farmer has had a torrid time in the East with rainfall levels multiples of normal but the final tally for wheat production still looks destined to be well above 30MMT.

Oct 25 - China’s September 2022 corn imports plummet to 1.53 m mt y-o-y (AgriCensus)

- Monthly corn imports into China declined significantly in September by 56.6% year-on-year, data from China’s General Administration of Customs (CGAC) showed Monday.

- The September volume totalled 1.53 million mt, which was down by 15% from the 1.8 million mt recorded a month earlier.

- Total corn imports in the first nine months of 2022 reached 18.46 million mt, down 25.9% from the same period last year.

- Wheat imports in September also declined 30% from the previous month to 370,000 mt and remained 42.2% lower than the same month in 2021.

- The total volume of wheat imported to China between January and September of 2022 came in at 6.62 million mt, down 12.8% year-on-year.

- For barley, China brought in 360,000 mt last month, up from 250,000 mt recorded in August but down 76% from a year earlier.

- Overall, barley imports for the year so far stand at 4.41 million mt, which is 48.8% lower than the same period in 2021.

- Sorghum imports in September rose 41.8% from the previous year to 920,000 mt, pushing the total import volume in the first three quarters of 2022 to 8.93 million mt, marking a year-on-year gain of 21.4%.

- China also imported 780,000 mt of edible vegetable oil in September, down 1% from a year ago.

- With that total, China brought in 610,000 mt of palm oil and 50,000 mt of rapeseed oil in September, while no soyoil was imported last month.

- Accumulatively, the volume of edible vegetable oil imports into China in the first nine months of 2022 amounted to 3.68 million mt, a 55.5% year-on-year dip.

Oct 25 - U.S. soy harvest 80% complete, corn 61%, ahead of average
The U.S. soybean harvest was 80% complete as of Sunday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a weekly progress report on Monday, ahead of the average estimate in a Reuters analyst poll of 77% and the five-year average of 67% after a week of mostly clear skies helped speed fieldwork. The U.S. corn harvest was 61% complete, the USDA said, ahead of the five-year above of 52% but just behind the average analyst estimate of 62%.  

Oct 25 - EU maize yield forecast cut again, sowing seen favourable
The European Union's crop monitoring service MARS on Monday reduced further its forecast for this year's drought-affected EU maize harvest but pointed to mostly favourable sowing conditions for winter cereals. The MARS report forecast the average yield in this year's EU grain maize crop was expected at 6.34 tonnes per hectare (t/ha) from 6.39 t/ha expected in September.

Oct 24  - EU Agri Market Pre Open Comments ( StoneX )
- The financial times had an interesting chart on the decline in economic data made available by Chinese Authorities during the 2 terms of Xi which graffically demonstrated what we have come to fell about slow but steady contraction of information from the worlds biggest buyer.
- The Chinese are like farmers, when the yields are good you will hear all about it, when they are bad they are not so informative. The trade will face into a 3rd term more uncertain about to the Orirent than at any time in the prior two and thats a pendulum that can swing both ways.
- The Australian farmer in many cases in the East are facing very difficult weather conditions with widespread flooding there. I have also attached the "how to kill a crop" sheet.
- I get the sense that the TMO tender results were considered on the sharp side, even consindering the 12% pro spec. No big surprises with the fund data.
- The US harvest progressing normally, there continues to be very limited info on yields, we are surveying next week. The limited conversation I have had seem to be angling towards more than OK.
- Argie is the main issue and helping to rally the US board crush that has no shoratage of buyers currently.

Oct 24  - Ukraine accuses Russia of blocking full implementation of grain deal
Ukraine said seven vessels sailed off from its ports on Sunday carrying grain bound for Asia and Europe, but accused Russia of blocking the full implementation of Black Sea grain deal. "Russia is deliberately blocking the full realisation of the Grain Initiative. As a result, these (Ukrainian) ports in the last few days are working only at 25-30 percent of their capacity," Ukraine's Infrastructure Ministry said in a statement via the Telegram messaging app.

Oct 24  - China Sept soybean imports jump 12% from a year earlier - customs
China's soybean imports in September rose 12% from a year earlier to 7.72 million tonnes, customs data showed on Monday, reversing a months-long trend of low arrivals. The world's top buyer of soybeans curbed purchases in prior months because of high global prices and poor profits from crushing beans to make animal feed.

Oct 24  - India rice export curbs to end a decade of price stability
India's recent curbs on rice exports could trigger a rally in global prices after more than a decade of stability, traders said, as New Delhi's protectionist move coincides with falling output in other major producers and rising global demand. Uneven monsoon rains hit rice planting in India, prompting the export restrictions in September, and floods have cut output in Pakistan even as consumption has grown in top importers such as Bangladesh and the Philippines.

Oct 24  - Turkey buys 470,000 tonnes milling wheat in tender
- traders
Turkey's state grain board TMO has provisionally purchased about 470,000 tonnes of wheat in a large international tender which closed on Friday, traders said. This is a little below the tender volume of 495,000 tonnes but no more purchases are expected on Friday. The TMO can buy slightly more or less than the tender volume.

Oct 21  - EU Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- That the Black sea grain corridor is looking more and more like Schrodinger plates and the market barely registeres this is testiment to the either the extent to which altenative supplies chains have developed and/or demand contracted and/or the trade is just tired of hearing about it.
- Matif is €20/tonne off its most recent highs.
- The Argentine crop of wheat looks well off last years achievements but Brazil will pick up a few extra million tonnes. That essentially reduces export demand to Argentina's nearest market.Spot gas price remain weak and while the defered postions are softening they are still slow and grinding, presumably waiting on the weather forecasts to turn colder.
- DAP in the US gathering downside momentum.
- Russia announcing a record 150MMT of grain production.
- Hong Kong stocks reaching multi year lows as their and the Chinese economy looks destined to contract on the property bubble.
- Meal had a nice rally as the market stays bullish on crush, yesterdays Dec. crush candlestick though looks toppy.

Oct 21  - Talk spreads that entry to Odesa ports will be blocked from early Nov (AgriCensus)

- A rumor has been spreading among market participants that entry to Great Odesa ports will be blocked for vessels starting from early November, however the industry has treated this with caution as various talk is circulating in the market regarding the future work in the UN-brokered grain corridor from Ukraine and a lack of confirmation of the rumor. The rumor comes amid general uncertainty on whether the corridor will continue to operate after November 21, when the current deal officially ends. On the Ukrainian side, expectations are quite optimistic, while on the Russian side there are comments almost every day that suggest there is a reluctance to prolong the deal.

- Many of the sources Agricensus contacted said they were not sure if the rumour was true, but said that it could be a logical move to let vessels that have already been booked and expected to arrive in Ukrainian waters to complete inspections for entrance in Turkey, load and leave Ukraine before the deal officially ends. This comes as the queue awaiting inspection in Istanbul to enter and leave Ukraine has risen to 160 vessels, while trade sources said a maximum of 14 vessels a day are currently being inspected, and the number tends to be slower as Russia's inspectors seem reluctant to cooperate. Also, due to the level of congestion at Istanbul, trade sources said some vessels are waiting for inspection at Canakkale or in the Black Sea.
“It is not official yet; it depends on how negotiations about the grain corridor extension will develop. If there is no positive news, then yes – our ports will be forced to suspend ships arrivals, because of the risk they will be blocked in port after November 19,” a trade source said.
“I don't think anything is official, but given the corridor closes on the 19th and it takes roughly 20-25 days for the whole process, that pretty much takes care of it,” a trader said.

- Agricensus has contacted the Ukrainian Ministry of Infrastructure and the port administration for official comment on the situation, but no response was received by the time of publication.
- Freight market sources said they had not heard about any suspension of entry to Ukraine's ports, but vessel owners have been reluctant to fix new vessels in the region for almost two weeks amid risks of vessels being stuck in the country, as happened in February when Russia invaded Ukraine.

Oct 21  - Not much progress in Black Sea grain deal talks - Russian envoy
Talks on extending a July deal that resumed Ukraine Black Sea grain and fertilizer exports are not making much progress because Russian concerns are not being taken into proper account, Russia's U.N. ambassador in Geneva said on Thursday. Senior United Nations officials are negotiating with Russia to extend and expand the July 22 deal that could expire next month if an agreement is not reached.

Oct 21  - Unease ahead of 2023 grain harvest as record U.S. dryness spreads
  - Braun
More than 80% of the United States faces abnormally dry conditions, the biggest portion so far this century, and the recent escalation of dryness across several key grain states raises risks for the 2023 harvest. Extreme fall dryness is more concerning for the U.S. winter wheat crop since there is less recovery time.

Oct 21  - France set for rare rapeseed export to the United States

France is set to export about 40,000 tonnes of rapeseed to the United States in an unusual shipment for the oilseed, market sources said. The Star Maru bulk carrier is scheduled to enter the northern French port of Rouen on Thursday to start loading the cargo, traders and shipping sources said.

Oct 21  - Japan buys 97,482 tonnes of food wheat via tenders

Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 97,482 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in regular tenders that closed on Thursday. Japan, the world's sixth-biggest wheat importer, keeps a tight grip on imports of the country's second most important staple behind rice and buys the majority of the grain for milling via tenders typically issued three times a month.

Oct 20  - Russia considers setting grain export quota at 25.5m mt from February (AgriCensus)

- Despite earlier talk of cancelling export quotas for grains, Russia is now considering to set the quota at 25.5 million mt from February until the end of the season, Russian media said Wednesday, quoting agriculture minister Dmitriy Patrushev. The quota, which would be valid from February 15 to June 30, includes a separate 500,000 mt for export from Far East regions alone, the minister said.

- No details were given for individual commodities such as wheat, barley, and corn within the overall quota, but the amount suggests that the move will not have a significant effect on the market as last year's grain quota of 11 million mt was not fully used.  The decision is not yet final as it still needs to be approved by the government.

- The reported new quota is twice that set last year and is in line with a proposal made by Eduard Zernin of the Russian Union of Grain Exporters last week. Minister Patrushev also said that he saw no need for changes to Russia's export tax, as this is a self-regulating mechanism that changes depending on market conditions. The move comes as Russia has harvested a record high grain crop this year, with wheat production alone already reaching 104 million mt with 2.5% of the planted areas still to be threshed, while total grain output is expected to reach up to 150 million mt.

- At the same time, Russia's export pace is slower than last year, partly amid sanctions introduced by the West and related issues the country has faced since invading neighboring Ukraine in February, although in recent months exports have started to improve and the lag behind last year has decreased. Russia has only managed to export 14.3 million mt of grains since the start of the marketing year in July to October 18, including 11.8 million mt of wheat, an 11% drop year-on-year.

Oct 20  - Argentina grains exchange cuts wheat harvest forecast to 15 mln tonnes
Argentina's Rosario grains exchange cut its 2022/23 wheat harvest forecast to 15 million tonnes, down from 16 million tonnes estimated last week, it said on Wednesday, after a late frost hit crops already damaged by drought. The projected wheat harvest - which would make this year the worst in seven years - is "very critical and could still get worse," the exchange said in its monthly report.

Oct 20  - Russia plans grain export quota at 25.5 mln T for Feb 15-June 30
Russia's agriculture ministry has proposed setting the country's grain export quota at 25.5 million tonnes for the period from mid-February until the end of June, the minister, Dmitry Patrushev said on Wednesday. Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, which chiefly supplies its wheat to Africa and the Middle East.

Oct 20  - ADM sees Brazilian soybean exports up 11% for 2022/23 crop
Grain trader Archer-Daniels-Midland Co projects to grow its soybean exports from Brazil's 2022/23 crop-year by 11%, amid record production forecasts, Luciano Souza, the company's sourcing director for Latin America said on Wednesday. Brazil's soybean output is estimated at a record 152.4 million tonnes in the 2022/23 season, a 21% increase over last year's drought-hit cycle.

Oct 20  - South Korean mills buy 30,000 T wheat from U.S. - traders
A group of South Korean flour mills led by the miller SPC bought around 30,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States on Wednesday, European traders said. The purchase included several different wheat types and was all bought on an FOB basis with trading house Viterra believed to be the seller, they said.

Oct 19  - EU Agri Market Pre Open Comments ( StoneX)
- There’s a passage in Ernest Hemingway’s novel The Sun Also Rises in which a character named Mike is asked how he went bankrupt. “Two ways,” he answers. “Gradually, then suddenly.”
- Demand erosion in commodity markets into recessions/economic squeezes first start with very small little changes, holding off on that Croissant at the coffee shop, then it holding off on going to the restaurant at the weekend, then its holding onto that yogurt beyond its best before date then its having that meeting as a family that we all need to "tighten our belts".
- All the businesses behind these little changes collectively start to feel it an make their adjustments and eventually that filters all the way up to an origin that see's demand slow by 100's thousand tonnes that need to be stored/offloaded.
- Where we are in that cycle of what seems to me to be a squeeze on incomes I am not so sure but I am sure that these little changes are happening and they will filter up the supply chain.
- That said, the pig industry has had a gradual and now sudden recovery in margins.
- There will be waves within waves within the tide of the global economy. Demand concerns weigh, fear supports.

Oct 19  - Shipping woes to squeeze China's soybean stocks, hit feed output
China's soybean stocks are set to tighten further as delays in shipments from the United States deepen shortages of key animal feed ingredient soymeal, keeping prices at record highs. Ships carrying up to three million tonnes of U.S. soybeans which were scheduled to arrive this month and in November are likely to get delayed by about 15 to 20 days, two soybean traders told Reuters.

Oct 19  - More to Ukraine's recent grain export success than meets the eye - Braun
Ukraine’s grain exports have recently increased to within striking distance of the year-ago numbers, but that could be a brief phenomenon as the recent harvest is significantly smaller than last year’s record. Part of the latest success is likely to do with spillover supplies from the prior year that did not get exported during the five months when Ukraine’s seaports were completely inoperable.

Oct 19  - South Korean mills buy about 77,000 tonnes of U.S. wheat
Two groups of South Korean flour mills bought a total of about 77,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in two international tenders on Tuesday, European traders said. The purchases both included several different wheat types, all bought on an FOB basis. Trading house United Grain Corporation sold both consignments.

Oct 19  - Jordan buys estimated 60,000 tonnes wheat in tender - traders
Jordan's state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in a tender which closed on Tuesday, traders said. It was bought from trading house CHS at an estimated $374 a tonne c&f for shipment in the first half of March, 2023, they said.

Oct 18 - India has sufficient stocks of grains, could sell wheat in open market
India has sufficient stocks of rice and wheat and the government will sell wheat in the open market if needed to control prices, the most senior civil servant at the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, said on Monday. "We've enough stocks of rice and wheat and there's nothing to worry," Sudhanshu Pandey told a press conference.

Oct 18 - Scarce rains in Argentina pile on trouble for grain crops
Scarce and patchy rain forecast for Argentina's main breadbasket regions will likely compound a difficult start to the season for key crops including wheat and corn, a farm weather expert said on Monday, as drought conditions mostly prevail. Rains are expected only for northern portions of the fertile Pampas region later this week, while key farming areas like northern Buenos Aires and southern Santa Fe provinces are likely to see no rainfall at all, said German Heinzenknecht, a CCA consultancy meteorologist.

Oct 18 - U.S. corn, soy exports lag normal autumn pace amid river shipping woes
U.S. soybean exports are trailing their normal autumn pace despite rising supplies from an accelerating harvest, as low river levels have slowed the flow of grain barges to export terminals, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data issued on Monday. Corn exports are also lagging their typical harvest-time rate, weekly USDA export inspections data showed.

Oct 18 - Philippines bought about 165,000 tonnes Australian feed wheat - traders
An importer group in the Philippines is believed to have bought around 165,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from Australia in an international tender which closed late last week, European traders said on Monday. It was sought in three 55,000 consignments for shipment in 2023 in January, February and March.

Oct 17 - EU Agri Market Pre Open Comments ( StoneX )
- For the past 6 weeks wheat futures settled on average up around 15c.bu ($5/tonne) on the Friday heading into the weekend, presumably on fear something (more) unpleasant would happen in Ukraine.
- Last Friday we ended that trend with Matif down 6 and CME/KC down 30c.
- Is the market now comfortable with the over-land corridor, the sea corridor persisting, demand eroding or all 3 to revert to a more relaxed approach to tis specific risk? Or is it just noise and I am reading too much into it?
- The weather in Australia remain deoggedly wet heading deeper into harvest and we will probably hear more commentary on that from a quality standpoint.
- Funds were more long than expected corn and less long than expected beans and meal and more short wheat than the trade had guessed.
- Beyond the half way mark on the US corn and soybean harvest and still very little dialogue on yields. Rally good or really bad? Either way its not being talked about for some reason or another.

Oct 17 - Argentina corn planting slowest in six years due to drought, Rosario exchange says
Argentina corn planting is progressing at its slowest pace in six years due to a protracted drought, the Rosario grains exchange (BCR) said on Friday, which will drag down the amount of early-planted corn that normally has a higher yield. Argentina is the world's third largest corn exporter, but has been grappling with a major period of dry weather that has hit grains farmers hard in the South American nation, which is also a major producer of soy and wheat.

Oct 17 - NOPA September U.S. soybean crush seen at 161.627 million bushels

The U.S. soybean crush in September likely reached an all-time high for the ninth month of the year as processors ramped up operations with the arrival of newly harvested beans, analysts said ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Monday. NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed 161.627 million bushels of soybeans last month, according to the average of estimates from eight analysts.

Oct 17 - India allows exports of wheat flour processed from imported grain
India has allowed export-oriented units and the firms set up in Special Economic Zones to export flour made from imported wheat, a government order said on Friday, conceding to the demands of food processors to allow shipments of value-added products. India will allow food processors to import duty-free wheat against a commitment to export flour, the order said.

Oct 17  - South Korea’s MFG bought about 65,000 tonnes Australian feed wheat
South Korea's Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 65,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from Australia in a private deal on Friday without issuing an international tender, European traders said. It was purchased at an estimated $354.49 a tonne c&f including a surcharge for additional port unloading.

Oct 14  - EU Agri market Pre Open Comments ( StoneX )
- At face value there are lots of little flies in the ointment on the supply side, the flloding evacuations in Australia will garner headlines and will question the quality if not the quality of the Australian crop as it moves deeper into harvest. It will still be huge.
- In Argentina dry weather is causing a particularly slow pace of planting but its bigger neighbour up North seems to be on course.
- Suggestions today are that diesel shortages in France are to blamce for a slow start to the winter wheat planting campaign there but there is still quite a few weeks to get that crop in.
- The macro picture is developing ever greater turbulence with yesterdays stock market dip and drive down 3% and then up 3% symptomatic of the evironment we are in. What this does to cash business is tighten up positions and shorten the contracting timeframes.
- There is a distinct disjoint between palmoil and beanoil and somehow sunoil and rapeoil have to chart a course between these two extremes, but even within this there is probably a widening gap between food grade and industrial grade rapeoil as the fuel (diesel) for food (rapeoil) swaps between the EU and Ukraine continue.

Oct 14  - Argentina wheat crop forecasts cut again as drought hardens
Argentina's two major grains exchanges cut their forecasts for the upcoming wheat harvest on Thursday as drought and low temperatures hit the crop, with little relief in sight for key farming regions and scant rains forecast in weeks ahead. A senior analyst at the key Rosario grains exchange, Cristian Russo, told Reuters that the 2022/23 wheat harvest would likely come in at 16 million tonnes, a 500,000-tonne cut from the entity's previous formal forecast.

Oct 14  - Russia is prepared to quit Black Sea grains deal, writes to UN with demands
Moscow has submitted concerns to the United Nations about an agreement on Black Sea grain exports, and is prepared to reject renewing the deal next month unless its demands are addressed, Russia's Geneva U.N. ambassador told Reuters on Thursday. The agreement, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey in July, paved the way for Ukraine to resume grain exports from Black Sea ports that had been shut since Russia invaded.

Oct 14  - Turkey can help select countries for Russian grain, fertiliser exports  - Erdogan
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday that Ankara could work with Moscow on determining low-income countries to which Russian grains and fertilisers can be exported. Erdogan met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Kazakhstan's Astana on Thursday on the sidelines of a summit.

Oct 13  - India's September palm imports jump 18%, soft oils hiked 11% (Agricensus)

- India’s palm oil imports in the month of September rose 18% against a month earlier, on higher palm olein imports and soft oils rose 11% according to an information release from the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) published Thursday. The world’s largest edible oil importer took in 1,171,913 mt of palm oil – consisting of refined bleached deodorised (RBD) palm olein, crude palm oil (CPO) and crude palm kernel oil (CPKO) – in September, while soft oils imports were at 421,625 mt.
- Increased palm oil imports came because of a substantial price spread between palm and soybean oil, with a premium of at least $400/mt in September, making palm oil more attractive.
- RBD palm olein imports are higher year-on-year, with Indian buyers favouring Indonesian exporters due to the more competitive prices and lower duties.
- For September, India imported 716,221 mt and 428,211 mt of palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia respectively, reflecting the demand for cheaper Indonesian material.
- India’s soyoil imports in September increased slightly, rising 7% to 261,815 mt and 18% to 159,810 mt.

- However, overall palm oil imports have fallen in the first 11 months of the current marketing year, which began in November 2021, with palm oil imports 8% lower than the same period a year ago at 7.03 million mt. Soft oil imports rose 21% in the same period to 5.64 million mt.
- For September, India’s edible oil imports came to 1.59 million mt, 16% higher than August.
- Edible oil stock levels were at 2.44 million mt as of September 1, up 0.5% from a month earlier.

Oct 13  - EU Agri market Pre Open Comments ( StoneX )
- I was in a biofuels conference for the report so didn’t get a great feel for the market reaction.
- 200mbu carryout for beans seems a number they will hold and move things around to facilitate that.
- Their US crush nudged a little higher to a record domestic dissapearance. To help facilitate this the US will likely be pulling in oilseed supplies from Canada and possibly beyond.
- US rapeseed/Canola imports from Canada expected to break above 2MMT for the first time. This has impliations for traditional buyers of Canadian oilseeds.
- Palmoil meanwhile is largely being put in the bearish box by most analysts expecting production recoveries and tepid demand.
- One confirmation I got at the biodiesel conference was the continued and large flows of vegoils and oilseeds coming in from Ukraine as fuel is shuttled out and vegoils shuttled in.
- There is also no shortage of Brazilian corn which in a rare occurance is giving the West coast ethanol producers a slight edge over interior producers in that regard but high gas prices remain the choker on production ambitions.

Oct 13  - India allows broken rice exports backed by already issued LCs
India will allow overseas broken rice shipments of 397,267 tonnes backed by letters of credit (LCs) issued before Sept. 8, the government said in a notification on Wednesday, as a sudden ban on exports of the grain prevented the loading of cargoes. On Sept. 8, India banned exports of broken rice as the world's biggest exporter of the grain tries to augment supplies and calm local prices after below-average monsoon rainfall curtailed planting.

Oct 13  - Sinking demand combats shrinking U.S. soy crop as trade nails corn yield
- Braun
The often surprising nature of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s crop reports delivered on Wednesday as U.S. soybean yield fell below most industry estimates, though cuts to export demand and increased international competition minimized the impact of a smaller crop on the U.S. balance sheet. U.S. corn yield is now nearly 10 bushels per acre lower than the earliest projections, though the trade has anticipated that decline very well.

Oct 13  - French wheat export forecast raised amid Ukraine corridor uncertainty

Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday raised its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union, now seen 15% above last season, but said sales would depend on whether a Ukrainian grain export corridor was extended. Soft wheat shipments outside the 27-member bloc are now seen at 10.1 million tonnes, up from 10.0 million in July, FranceAgriMer said in a cereal supply and demand outlook.

Oct 13  - Taiwan’s MFIG buys about 65,000 tonnes corn from Brazil 
- traders
Taiwan's MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 tonnes of animal feed corn, expected to be sourced from Brazil, in an international tender which closed on Wednesday, European traders said. It was believed to have been sold by trading house Pan Ocean.

Oct 12  - Russia mulls cancellation of grain export quota on a bumper crop (AgriCensus)

- Russian authorities are considering abolishing the current grains export quota for the 2022/23 marketing year as the country’s wheat crop reached 103 million mt to date, marking a 36% year-on-year increase. According to Viktoria Abramchenko, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, there is no ground to impose an export quota this year, based on a harvest success.

- An export quota is usually imposed between February 15 and June 30 to ensure local grain supply based on stocks, with the 2021/22 volume set at 11 million mt, including 8 million mt of wheat. Nevertheless, Eduard Zernin from the Russian Union of Grain Exporters proposed to keep the quota and set it at 25 million mt - a measure that will not bring drastic changes to the export potential but will remain a restrictive measurement.

- Market representatives were quite skeptical about the potential change, claiming it will have limited impact on grain exports, while farmers and exporters still have to deal with the strong ruble on international currency markets, a floating export tax and inflated freight costs.
“The quota is normally about the same volume the country exports during the period, so it is never a major restricting factor,” Andrey Sizov said in his note to clients.

Oct 12  - EU Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- It was highlighted to me by someone that there is a deafening silence from the US in terms of dialogue on corn and soybean yields. We are at the half way mark in their harvest and there is almost no commentary on yields. To my mind the most vocal commentary on yields during a harvest comes with very bad yields (bad new sells), then the really good yields and then it is hard to launch click bate with a headline of "normal yields shock the market". So on the evidence of no evidence to the contrary the working assumption I think is that that yields are pretty OK.
- The market continues to trade Black sea headlines with escalating conflict rallying the market only for Russia suggesting getting rid of "export quotas" to break it. In real terms there was no true restriction to exports to remove.
- The big names in commerce more and more downplaying the global and especially EU economic outlook. The pessimism extends to almost all industries with restaurants and chemical industries in particular under pressure.
- Algeria bought big and likely bought Russian, no ideal for Matif bulls.

Oct 12 - Palm oil's widening discount to soyoil to boost fourth quarter demand
Global palm oil purchases are rising this quarter as buyers take advantage of the tropical oil's widening discount to rival soyoil which should entice price sensitive consumers and boost biofuel usage, according to senior industry officials. The highest discount in a decade would divert demand towards palm oil from soyoil and sunflower oil and help top producer Indonesia and Malaysia bring down stockpiles that were weighing on the benchmark futures. 

Oct 12 - Trade's luck with U.S. October corn, soy yields may put demand in focus
Grain analysts are hoping to have properly anticipated the U.S. government's Wednesday crop report after completely miscalculating U.S. corn and soybean stocks and the U.S. wheat harvest in the last report less than two weeks ago. But the trade in October is usually on target for U.S. yields, meaning that revisions to demand may be the source of surprises in the U.S. Department of Agriculture's upcoming data.

Oct 11  - Wheat futures surge 7.5% as Russia's missile barrage drives Black Sea supply fears (AgriCensus)

- Wheat futures surged over 7% on Monday as traders responded to Russia's barrage of missile attacks on cities across Ukraine earlier today that appeared to heighten still further the risks to a UN-brokered accord between the nations on an export corridor for Black Sea grains. Ahead of Russia's attacks on cities including Kyiv, Dnipro and Lviv, traders had already expected the Black sea exports to come under increasing threat following a massive explosion and damage to a Russian-built bridge on Saturday that connects Russia with Ukrainian territory it occupies in Crimea.
"I think it goes back to the fact nearly 30% of the world’s wheat exports could be in some sort of jeopardy if the Black Sea Export Corridor agreement is not extended,"  Larry Shonkwiler of Advance Trading told Agricensus.

- As of 1151 Eastern time, Chicago SRW December futures were up 7.6% on Friday's settlement at $9.47/bu, while March was up 7.2% at $9.59/bu. Kansas City HRW futures climbed about 6.5% on last Friday’s settlement, with December at $10.35/bu and March at $10.30/bu.
"Indeed the Black Sea issues are foremost, as is the fact that spec trade still short Chicago wheat, either outright or versus corn, soy, Matif, etc...," Jeffrey McPike of McWheat Inc. told Agricensus.

- Although Russia has said its attacks that hit some Ukrainian city centres in morning rush hour traffic were in response to the bridge explosion, Ukrainian authorities said the missile barrage had been ordered before the massive blast at the Kerch Bridge, responsibility for which is neither confirmed nor denied by the government in Kyiv.  The bridge, so-named because it spans the Kerch Strait - the narrow neck of water that connects the Azov Sea with the deeper Black Sea - was extensively damaged after an explosion sent part of the road section into the water and caused a fire on a passing train.
"Corn and wheat are all related to the war's escalation. Traders are starting to wonder if Russia will not renew the safe passage agreement.  Otherwise, today could have been as a down day as the US dollar is higher and West Texas Intermediate crude lower," senior grain and oilseed commodity analyst at Futures International Terry Reilly told Agricensus.

- The grain corridor agreement restored export flows from Ukraine, and renewed  access for Russian grains and fertilisers after Russia’s invasion and the blockade of all maritime activity across the Black Sea and Azov Sea, which prompted western sanctions. Besides the UN, Turkey also brokered the agreement. Due to run through to November 20, the agreement has been an increasing source of ire for Russian authorities in part because Ukraine’s exports have surged while Russian exports lag behind the seasonal pace.

In Europe, the front-month December Euronext milling wheat futures contract traded at €364.5/mt, up €16.5/mt, while December dropped by €16.25/mt to €363/mt.

Oct 11  - EU Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- The wheat market is in a cycle od escalation deflation. That is, the market market reacts to Ukraine war excapation with a 40-50c/bu up move and a steady post escalation deflation of 10c declines over the next few days before the next upward move.
- We have had our 4th or 5th such move of the past 2 months yesterday. The new head of the Russian army I am lead to beleive is someone likely to create many more days of extreme headlines as the war escalates.
- The immediate concern is for the corridor where the odds of it surviving have diminished.
- Wheat really the only market to make a substantial move however with energy and other grains much more sanguine. Gasoil down sharply today, I dont see anything of the French refinery strike coming to a conclusion but maybe there are moves afoot in the background.
- First cuts of Australian wheat arrive with another large crop expected there.
- The US logistics situation still looks difflicult with little improvement in water levels and rail strikes edging closer.

- Between Europe and the US has the world ever been so relient on truck drivers to move grains? Demand erosion, the extent stand timing remain an unspoken theme.

Oct 11 - Australian wheat crop quality at risk due heavy rains
Widespread rains in Australia's eastern grain producing states is likely to hit the quality of the wheat crop which is scheduled to be harvested at the end of the year, traders and analysts said. Wheat quality downgrades in Australia are set to deepen concerns over global food supplies, with the world heading towards the tightest grain inventories in years as Russia-Ukraine war curbs exports and adverse weather reduces production.  

Oct 11 - Crop Watch: Bean harvest wrapping up; Illinois corn disappoints
Just three of the 11 U.S. Crop Watch soybean fields still await harvest, but those should be finished early this week as most producers’ harvest paces are ahead of normal. The western Illinois corn last week became the second completed Crop Watch corn field, and the final yield score ended at 4.5, a quarter-point below expectations.

Oct 10 - Europe's farmers bring in drought-scarred maize crop
The European Union's maize harvest is in full swing and field work is confirming widespread drought damage that analysts expect to push the feed grain crop to a 15-year low. A historic drought and successive heatwaves in Europe affected maize, or corn, during crucial summer growth stages, and showers in the past month appeared too late. 

Oct 10 - Funds shed CBOT soy bets but keep corn as supply narratives diverge
Soybean fundamentals have not been particularly friendly to market bulls as of late, but speculators are still not ready to pull the trigger on short bets, as Chicago futures hover near two-month lows. Investors remain satisfied with a sizable bullish stance in Chicago corn, which has been trading at the second-highest levels for the time of year, just below $7 per bushel.

Oct 07  - EU Agri market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- The US jobs report is gathering a lot of attention with a backdrop of inflation and perceived slowing demand leading to expectations of weak numbers.
- Over the past 2 months CME wheat closed lower on a Friday only once in a generall "don’t be short wheat over the weekend" routine.
- The nuclear threat not helped by Zelenski suggesting NATO nuke Russia first.
- 67% of the French maize crop harvested, probably a fair estimate for the EU as a whole.
- Interesting webinar on logisitics from Ukraine yesterday where there remains substantial difficulties that ultimately are leading to a liquidity issues in Ukraine with very low internal prices needed to justify the cost of export. Unless I heard incorrectly the flows via Hungary are much easier than the flows via Poland. The desire of the trade is to get practical issues sorted out (e.g. phyto certs.,vets etc.), then get infrastructure and financing in place but this all in the years rather than month timeframe that creates a big problem for next year where Ukrainian farmers could still be carrying huges stocks with limited resources and capital. Anyway thats what I learned.
- The US corn harvest should be around the 1/3 mark, ditto beans.

Oct 07 - Dry soil in Russia's south poses risk for 2023 grain crop
 

Low level of moisture reserves in soil in Russia's southern breadbasket poses risks for the 2023 grain crop of the world's largest wheat exporter, Roman Nekrasov, an agriculture ministry official, said on Thursday. Farmers in Russia have accelerated winter wheat sowing after recent rain eased dry soil conditions in some regions last week, though sowing is still delayed compared with a year ago.

Oct 06  - EU poultrymeat losing competitive edge as costs rise (IHSmarkit)

- Modest declines in production forecast for 2022 and 2023
- High price of EU products helping competitors capture market share in Africa and Asia
- EU importing significantly more poultrymeat from Ukraine, Brazil and UK

- New forecasts from the European Commission make uncomfortable reading for the European poultry sector, whose international competitiveness is being undermined by high input costs and the spread of highly pathogenic avian flu (HPAI). In its latest Short Term Outlook report, the EU executive says it expects poultrymeat production to decrease in 2022, with a further modest fall predicted for 2023.
Production of all types of poultrymeat is pegged at 13.176 million tonnes (cwe) in 2022, down 0.9% y/y. A further 0.4% decrease is forecast for next year, when production will fall to 13.122 million tonnes.

The Commission says production growth is limited by high input prices – especially feed and energy – and HPAI.

Trade balance weakens

- The combination of strong demand, tight supply, high input costs and overall inflation have been leading to strikingly high poultry prices, well above 2017-2021 average (+38% y/y in mid-Jul-mid-Sep). These high prices are harming the competitiveness of European poultrymeat on international markets. Overall, EU poultry exports are expected to decrease by 2.2% in 2022 and remain almost stable in 2023. EU poultry exports to the UK are due to increase by 20% in 2022 (4% above 2017-2019 average). On the other hand, high EU prices are helping competitors such as Brazil capture market share from the EU - especially in Africa and Asia.

- As well as losing ground as an exporter, the EU is increasing the amount for poultrymeat it brings in from other parts of the world. Overall, EU poultry imports are expected to rise by 29% y/y in 2022 with a further 7.7% increase forecast for 2023.

- Benefitting from a suspension of duties, Ukraine is already exporting to the EU higher volumes than in 2021 and that trend is set to continue until the first half of 2023.

- Meanwhile, highly competitive Brazil is expected to export 35% more poultrymeat to the EU in 2022. Imports from the UK have fluctuated in recent months and may increase by 10% y/y. Despite being higher than last year, imports from the UK will still be 15% below the 2017-2019 average.

- The combination of higher imports and lower exports will see the EU’s self-sufficiency rate for poultrymeat fall to 109% in 2023 – the lowest since 2014.

Oct 06  - EU Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- The ECE is in Valencia over the next two days and that should starve the market of liquidity to keep things quiet.
- On emarket seems to have made a call on its trajectory is ethanol that slid €50/m3to level not seen since March.
- On the flip side gasoil (diesel) prices retraced to more or less prior contract highs. EU gasoil stocks are slowly recovering but still low. One refiners margins contract, the others balloons. The rise in diesel prices I think symptomatic not of additional miles being driven but of more kwh's being created in diesel generators to displace gas/grid electricity.
- For biodiesel producers this likely means higher gasoil prices but as its demand driven not by transport lower premiums.
- OPEC were in confident mood yesterday and their confidence to cut production matched only by the confidence at which the US are willing to release more SPR crude to the market. OPEC have infinate wells and ability to turn up and down. The US SPR is a very limited well to draw on.
- Quality concerns being raised over the Oz wheat crop, that likely gets priced through milling premiums as the cause of the quality downgrades will be the same argument to upgrade production ideas.

Oct 06 - Drought-hit French grain maize crop to fall to 10 mln T
This year's drought-affected grain maize crop in France will produce about 10 million tonnes, growers group AGPM said on Wednesday, joining other observers in predicting the worst harvest in decades. The crop forecast was based on an estimated yield of 7.9 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), down from a 5-year average of 9.7 t/ha, and a harvested area of 1.27 million hectares, the AGPM said. 

Oct 06 - Brazil fertilizer deliveries seen dropping 5%-7%
Fertilizer deliveries to Brazilian farmers could fall between 5% and 7% this year, an executive at Brazilian trade group Anda said on Wednesday, citing figures from analysts and industry estimates. Anda, which represents global suppliers including Nutrien and Mosaic, said farmers have delayed purchases or decided not to buy fertilizer this season amid a rise in prices sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Oct 05  - Europe Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)

- Our US colleagues surveyed their clients on yield expectations and just to summarise how it works. They are surveyed on their expectation for corn and soybean yields for their state creating a state average. Then those yields are weighted up based on the respective areas to get a national average. It is really a yield forecast rather than a production forecast as the production number is based on the exisitng area forecasts of the USDA.
- With this in mind the collective corn yield idea is up on last month at 173.9bu/acre. Soybean yields are a little lower at 51.3mbu.
- This implies a "better than expected" tone to start the new campaign.

- The euro move is relevent as we hit 1.00 against the dollar again, if we take EU wheat at €350/tonne then the currency move of the past week shifts its dollar value by $15/tonne or so.
- Layer in that Russian seller are taking some ground to typical French destinations makes it a testy time for longs.
- EU ethanol prices getting slammed as Brazilian supplies flow in and energy cost decline.
- EU gas prices hitting lowest price since July as the EU winter is slow to arrive and demand works lower.

Oct 05 - StoneX trims U.S. 2022 corn production estimate but raises yield
Commodity brokerage StoneX on Tuesday lowered its estimate of U.S. 2022 corn production to 14.056 billion bushels, down from 14.168 billion in its previous monthly report released on Sept. 1. But the firm raised its estimate of the average U.S. corn yield to 173.9 bushels per acre (bpa), from 173.2 previously. 

Oct 05 - Fall in fertilizer price stirs up Brazil farmer buying, analyst says
A recent fall in fertilizer prices while soybean quotes remain high has favored Brazilian farmers and even enticed them to buy crop nutrients for the 2023/2024 cycle, which is one year away, an analyst with Agrinvest told Reuters on Tuesday. In April, farmers needed the equivalent of 20.4 bags of soybeans to buy 1 tonne of a fertilizer known as SSP. That ratio has dropped to 10 bags now, Agrinvest analyst Jeferson Souza said.

Oct 04  - EU Agri market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- N. Korea flinging nuclear capable rockets over Japan, Russia moving theirs to the Ukraine boarder, just another Tuesday in 2022…
- this all takes the headlines meanwhile in a more practical sense Algeria bought 300kt of wheat (maybe more) that is largely assumed to be the cheapest wheat on offer - Russian.
- Matif not liking this.
- While Canada's rapeseed is recovering its relative value is being held up by the same winds of demand from the US biodiesel sector that has been supporting beanoil. - Stocks are gapping higher this morning with hints that recent weakeness in commodities and freight can be catalysts for weaker inflation numbers in coming weeks and the weaker inflation reduces the upward pressure on interest rates and who knows maybe it re-stimulates QE mechanisms. -
- China remains a conundrum, how good/bad is their harvest really because lots of mixed interpretations there how bad or otherwise is their property market woes.
- EU gas prices continue to decline as LNG supplies continue to flow and demand continues to wane as winter is slow to arrive.
- The political impact of rich EU countries hoovering up world LNG at the expense of poorer nations the next conversation.

Oct 04 - Rains slow Brazil's new soy crop planting, consultancy says
Excess rains in some areas of Brazil have slowed sowing of the country's 2022/2023 soybean crop, according to agribusiness consultancy AgRural on Monday. As of last Thursday, the total area planted with the oilseed reached 3.8% in the world's largest producer of soybeans. This compares with 4.1% a year ago, according to AgRural. 

Oct 04 - India's Sept palm oil imports jump to 1-yr high of 1.2 mln T
India's imports of palm oil jumped in September to their highest in a year, boosted by strong demand for the tropical oil ahead of the festival season and a steep discount to rival oils, six dealers told Reuters on Tuesday. Greater buying could help top producer Indonesia cut swelling inventories and support benchmark Malaysian palm oil prices, which have nearly halved from this year's record highs.

Oct 03  - Ukrainian sun meal prices remain firm at ports (IHSmarkit)
- Sun meal prices up USD35.00/tonne to USD160-185/tonne
- 943,000 hectares of the sunflower seed area harvested

- Ukrainian prices of sunflower meal have been growing since the beginning of September, with bid prices increasing by an average of USD35.00/tonne to USD160-185/tonne on an CPT basis as of September 30, according to APK-Inform. Prices are supported by higher trade activity amid the greater shipments, mainly through unblocked ports of Odesa, along with stronger foreign demand. Meanwhile, Ukrainian farmers harvested 943,000 hectares of the sunflower seed area, for a production of 1.56 million tonnes for an average yield of 1.66 tonnes/hectare.

- On the other hand, state-owned rail company Ukrzaliznytsia transported 2.72 million tonnes of grains for export between September 1-28, according to Deputy СЕО on Logistics at Delta Wilmar, Valerii Tkachov. Tkachov added that the transportation of grains for export may reach 3 million tonnes by the end of September.

- According to Ukrzaliznytsia data, a total of 808,000 tonnes of grain were transferred through western borders, while another 1.92 million tonnes were transported to ports.

Oct 3 - Forecast of heavy rains in October raises concern about India's rice, wheat crops
India is likely to receive above-average rainfall in October, an official with the state-run weather office said on Friday, posing risks for summer-sown crops such as rice and the planting of wheat. Monthly rainfall is expected at 115% of the long-term average, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department, told a virtual news conference.

Oct 3 - Nestle to stop sourcing from Indonesian palm oil producer AAL
Food giant Nestle plans to stop sourcing from subsidiaries of Astra Agro Lestari (AAL), a major Indonesian palm oil producer accused by environmental groups of land and human rights abuses. The move comes as multinationals face increased reputational and legal pressure from consumers and governments to clean up their global supply chains in the fight against climate change.

Oct 03  - EU Agri Market pre open Comments
- Last week we had China on the brink of collapse as Xi coup rumours flooded the market, this week you can choose from the runoff elections in Brazil between the hard right and hard left, the imminent demise of Credit Suisse and/or Deutsche bank or if you like consistency the collapse of either Russia or the EU.
- If Credit Suisse/Deutsche fail one presumes the echoes of 2008 will not instil confidence in owning anything, including commodities.
- This time of the year has a nice remind of seasonal rhythms to it as the Northern hemisphere corn and soybean crops are being harvested Southern hemisphere crops are being planted.
- The US is dominated disrupted river logistics as EU river logistics ease.
- Demand erosion in the gas market is expected to be significant even if temperature fall into winter.
- The other interesting takeaway from last week’s energy conference is that ALL EU member states say they will be "ok" as long as they can import any deficits from neighbour member states....the euro had a solid week last week but the CS/DB backdrop isn’t positive.
- Russian wheat is cheap, rapeseed is also cheap now that the slugs ate half our crop!