Grains, Seeds, Vegoils, Meals, Softs, Agri News
Oct 27 - ADM profit more than doubles on strong crush margins, vegoil demand
Global grain trader Archer-Daniels-Midland Co said on Tuesday its third-quarter profit more than doubled, as strong oilseed crushing margins and rising vegetable oil demand boosted its core agricultural services and oilseeds unit. The U.S.-based company anticipates the demand and margin environment to stay favorable, supporting results in the fourth quarter, and foresees record annual earnings per share for a second straight year.
Oct 27 - Turkey provisionally buys 235,000 T of barley in tender, traders say
Turkey's state grain board TMO provisionally bought an estimated 235,000 tonnes of animal feed barley from optional origins in a tender which closed on Tuesday, European traders said. That was more than estimated in earlier trader assessments and matched the volume TMO had been seeking.
Oct 27 - Dependable Brazilian crop unlikely to back soybean optimists - Braun
Soybean markets have faced some headwinds in recent weeks with global stockpiles swelling above expectations, though Brazilian farmers are still planting their upcoming harvest and the outcome is still far in the future. However, it has been a few years since Brazil’s soybean crop came up short as the growing season usually coincides with reliably favorable weather.
Oct 26 - ADM’s Q3 profit more than doubles on ‘robust’ crush margin, vegoil demand (AgriCensus)
- Net earnings at global commodities producer and trader ADM more than doubled in the third quarter to $526 million compared with the equivalent period last year, as the company reaped the benefits of strong demand for agricultural products and robust crush margins, the company said on Tuesday.
- The Agricultural Services & Oilseeds segment was the biggest contributor to the earnings increase, racking up a 42% rise in operating profit to $618 million.
“Crushing had substantially higher year-over-year results. [We delivered] stronger margins in a dynamic environment, which included strong demand for vegetable oil to support our existing food customers, as well as increasing production of renewable diesel,” ADM said.
The gains came despite weak performance in the company's agricultural services arm, particularly due to “lower export volumes caused by Hurricane Ida”.
The Carbohydrate Solutions segment, which includes ethanol production, reported a decline of 13%, “primarily due to higher input costs”.
- The nutrition segment rose 20% from the previous year in operating profit to $176 million, with increases of 9% contributed from the human nutrition unit and 95% in animal nutrition.
ADM's total revenue in the third quarter of 2021 reached $20.34 billion, rising 34.4% from $15.13 billion in Q3 2020.
“Our teams… have put ADM on track for a strong fourth quarter culminating in a second consecutive year of record earnings per share,” chief executive Juan Luciano said in the statement.
Oct 26 - Russian wheat prices rise after brief respite
Russian wheat export prices gained last week after a brief pause on the back of a stronger rouble currency and higher global prices for the grain, analysts said on Monday. Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports for supply in the first half of November was $312 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $2 from the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of IKAR.
Oct 26 - Morocco to scrap import duty on soft wheat, durum -statement
The Moroccan government said on Monday it planned to suspend import duties on soft wheat and durum. The government will discuss two decrees to that end during a cabinet meeting on Thursday, a statement from the Prime Minister's office said.
Oct 26 - Dollars in the dirt: Big Ag pays farmers for control of their soil-bound carbon
The biggest global agriculture companies are competing on a new front: enticing farmers to join programs that keep atmosphere-warming carbon dioxide in the soil. Fertilizer producers Nutrien Ltd and Yara, agribusiness giant Cargill Inc, and seed and chemical dealers Corteva Inc and Bayer AG are paying growers for every acre of land dedicated to trapping carbon underground, known as sequestering it.
Oct 26 - Crop Watch: Corn harvest advances, yields edge higher - Braun
The U.S. Crop Watch producers were busy over the last week as four more of the 22 fields were harvested and a fifth was started, and that bumped up overall yield expectations for corn. Crop Watchers reported that harvest activity in their areas last week was quick and efficient, but many of them were sidelined by rain on Sunday, and that includes locations from Nebraska to Ohio.
Oct 25 - ‘Use less fertilisers,’ Brazil’s Mato Grosso soybean association tells farmers (AgriCensus)
The soybean and corn association of the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso Aprosoja-MT has told its associates to rationalise the usage of fertilisers for the 2022/23 crop amid skyrocketing prices in a note released on Thursday.
“Look for agronomic advice, consider the level of nutrients in the soil and, if possible, plant without fertilisers,” the association’s president Fernando Cadore told farmers.
The note came out amid skyrocketing fertilisers prices as global supply has been constrained by multiple factors this year.
By and large, Mato Grosso’s farmers have already acquired fertilisers for the 2021/22 crop, but concerns are mounting regarding input costs and the financial viability of the 2022/23 crop.
“The price of fertilisers more than doubled… [using fertilisers] is an individual choice of farmers, but they cannot pay these prices,” Cadore said.
The price of machinery, fuel and other inputs has also risen steeply, Aprosoja-MT noted, stressing that “this is not the time to buy machinery or raise debts.”
Oct 25 - Tunisia buys soft wheat and feed barley, traders say
Tunisia's state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 50,000 tonnes of soft wheat and 50,000 tonnes of animal feed barley in an international tender which closed on Friday, European traders said. The wheat was said to have been bought in two 25,000 tonne consignments at an estimated $373.45 a tonne c&f from trading house GrainCorp and $373.85 a tonne c&f from Cofco.
Oct 25 - 'Containergeddon' drives sugar, rice shippers back to bulk vessels
Food traders are switching from containers back to dry bulk vessels to transport refined sugar and rice, hoping to avoid shipping delays caused by container shortages and port congestion that the industry is calling "containergeddon", according to traders. Container-based transportation has been hit by sky-high costs and delays amid booming shipping demand, while container terminals at ports struggle to deal with the flow.
Oct 25 - China's soyoil hit near 10-year high, crush margins swing back to profit
China's soybean oil prices hit a near 10-year peak on tight supply and robust demand, lifting key soybean crushing margins to six-month highs despite sustained weak demand for soymeal from China's battered hog sector. The most actively traded soybean oil futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange has climbed 30% since mid-June to hit 10,278 yuan ($1,606.09) per tonne on Thursday, highest since October, 2012, before edging down on Friday.
Oct 25 - Funds hesitate to sell corn but their bullish soy bets dwindle - Braun
Speculators continue to show significantly more enthusiasm for Chicago-traded corn versus soybeans, and increasingly comfortable stockpiles of the oilseed may soon cause funds’ longstanding optimism to be washed away. Although Chicago wheat futures have been on the rise since mid-month, investors’ positioning does not indicate they are expecting further upside.
Oct 22 - Market Briefing: Grains and Feed (IHSmarkit)
- Argentine corn output forecast at 55 million tonnes in 2021/22
- Germany and Russia challenge France for Algerian wheat demand
- China boosts minimum purchase price for wheat in 2022
Production
Argentina is expected to produce 55 million tonnes of corn in 2021/22, and a record 38.5 million tonnes has already been sold, as producers rush to secure high international prices, as a sharp inflation is currently driving farm costs up.
Demand
- FAS forecasts Egypt’s wheat imports at 12.4 million tonnes in 2021/22, up 2% y/y, supported by a rise in consumption, driven by population growth. FSI (Food, Seed, and Industrial) use should grow by 2% y/y to 20 million tonnes, while feed use should remain unchanged at 1.3 million tonnes.
- German traders reported that Algeria is becoming Germany’s largest wheat customer due to issues on French wheat quality. Algeria's state-run grains buyer OAIC purchased up to 510,000 tonnes of wheat from German and Baltic suppliers in April. Meanwhile, Russia, which has recently resumed exports towards Algeria after a five-year hiatus, plans to send two shipments of wheat totalling 60,000 tonnes to Algeria in October.
Trade
- Australia exported 659,191 tonnes of barley in August, up 16% m/m, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Japan was the largest buyer of feed barley with 167,113 tonnes, followed by Saudi Arabia (142,117 tonnes), and Vietnam (84,240 tonnes). Conversely, Australian sorghum shipments plummeted by 32% m/m to 147,580 tonnes.
- US corn exports to Mexico should recover by 7% y/y to 16 million tonnes in 2020/21, boosted by reduced competition from Brazil, which faced crop-failure, combined with steady feed demand.
- Iran should raise its wheat imports by 2.0 million tonnes to 4.5 million tonnes in 2021/22, a record in 7 years, as the country is currently facing its worst drought, according to USDA.
Prices
- China has raised the minimum purchasing price for wheat for 2022, in an effort to improve grain security in the country. The National Development and Reform Commission has fixed the minimum purchase price for wheat at CNY2,300 (USD357) per tonne, compared to CNY2,260 per tonne in 2021.
- Brazil’s corn prices increased fell by 1% w/w in the week ending October 15, to BR90.18 (USD16.52)/60-kilo bags in Campinas city.
- Thailand’s benchmark 5% broken white rice rose by USD1.00 to USD388/tonne, while parboiled 100% rice prices increased by USD2.00 to USD394/tonne, in the week ending October 12.
Oct 22 - Market Briefing: Oilseeds (IHSmarkit)
- Indonesia to eventually stop exporting crude palm oil
- Drought and demand boosts soybean meal exports from Brazil
- Rapeseed futures soared in early October
Production
Argentina’s 2020/21 soybean harvest reached 43.1 million tonnes, compared to 49 million tonnes in 2019/20, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The 2021/22 harvest is forecast at 44 million tonnes, with planting starting this month.
Demand
- India’s vegetable oil imports (edible and non-edible) rose sharply in September 2021, up 67% m/m to 1.76 million tonnes, and up 66% y/y, driven by soaring palm oil imports, up 68% m/m to 1.26 million tonnes, a record high, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA).
- Mexico’s Secretariat of Economy (SE) has reportedly announced the implementation of a temporary tariff rate quota (TRQ) of 500,000 tonnes of soybeans, with zero import duty, in response to crunched US supplies, and subsequent high prices in 2020/21. Effective immediately, the TRQ is applicable to imports from all trading partners, and will be in force until December 31, 2021.
Trade
- Indonesia is planning to end all crude palm oil (CPO) exports in order to ship refined by-products instead, President Joko Widodo announced. In a speech to government officials, Widodo stated: “At some point, exports of CPO must stop. Exports must be in the form of cosmetics, margarine, biodiesel or other derivatives.”
- Brazil exported 419,314 tonnes of soybean meal, through the port of Paranaguá, in September, up 35% m/m, and up 33% y/y. Severe drought that is affecting South America has resulted in low water levels in the Rio da Prata basin, where barges can no longer travel. As a result, soymeal is being transported by road from Paraguay, and then shipped from Brazil. It is projected that 150,000 tonnes of soybean meal will arrive from Paraguay to be exported from the Paranaguá port, by the end of 2021.
Prices
- Paris Nov-21 rapeseed futures prices grew by 5% to EUR673.7/tonne, between October 1-18, lifted by tight supplies of the oilseed, the strengthening of Malaysian palm oil futures (+9% to MYR 5,175/tonne) and the rise in Brent crude oil prices (+6% to USD84.33/barrel), according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB).
- Domestic Brazilian soy prices decreased by 2% w/w to BRL168.55 (USD30.87)/60-kilo bags at the Paranaguá port in the week ending October 15. Similarly, prices dropped by 2% w/w to BRL166.48 (USD30.49)/ 60-kilo bags in the Paraná state.
Oct 22 - Market Briefing: Dairy (IHSmarkit)
- Korean milk production in 2021 impacted by unfavorable weather
- US cheese demand outpaces y/y sales
- Dairy commodities back to growth on GDT
Production
Korean milk production in 2021 is projected to total 2.03 million tonnes, down 3% y/y, impacted by lower winter average temperatures and humidity during summer, which caused heat stress on the dairy herd. Cheese production in 2021 is forecast to reach 45,000 tonnes as cheese demand growth remains strong. Production in 2022 is due to increase 4% y/y to 47,000 tonnes in 2022 owed to higher processed cheese production. Fresh cheese production has dipped by 56.4% in the period between 2010-2020, while processed cheese manufacturing increased 117% in the same period.
Demand
US cheese demand has been running above 2019 and 2020 levels. Domestic sales for August went up 4%, while August exports increased 18% y/y. A similar demand trend is seen in butter, with August domestic sales up 17% y/y. While exports account for very little of the total butter demand in the US, their sales abroad were up 90% y/y in August.
Trade
Rabobank expects a 18% y/y fall in China’s imports in the second half of the year to drive some destocking while still providing plenty inventory coverage. This would translate to WMP imports of 148,500 tonnes (down 74,000 tonnes y/y) and SMP intakes of 146,000 tonnes (down 32,000 tonnes y/y) in the second half of 2021. The strong total dairy import rises in the first half of the year (up 42% y/y) will therefore be slowed by significantly lower milk powder purchases in the second half of the year, bringing full-year import volumes of WMP up 8% y/y and SMP up 13% y/y.
Prices
Global dairy spot price surges were backed by the GDT auction this week (19 October), with commodities back to surging levels. The largest increase at the auction was in butter, up 5% to $5,111 per tonne on a 1,580-tonne reduction in Fonterra’s offered volumes for the next 12 months. The butter average price is now getting back to levels seen in spring when New Zealand’s 2020/21 season was ending. AMF and SMP increased by an identical percentage to the previous event, both up 3%. In addition to New Zealand and Europe, SMP of US origin was offered at this event, for January delivery at an average price of $3,400 per tonne. Prices for SMP from all regions that were on offer at the 19 October auction have aligned at practically the same level of $3,400-3,460 per tonne, with European values on the more expensive side of the spectrum. In comparison with other products on offer, WMP was up slightly by 1% to $3,803 per tonne.
Oct 22 - Market Briefing: Meat and Livestock (IHSmarkit)
- Growth in Chinese pork production stalls in third quarter.
- South Korea importing more chicken following bird flu losses.
- Chinese ban takes toll on Brazilian beef exports.
- Lamb prices moving up again in Europe.
Production
Pork production in China jumped 38% in the first three quarters of 2021 versus a year earlier to 39.17 million tonnes. The third quarter was, however, lower than the 13.46 million tonnes in the second quarter. At the end of Q3, pig numbers stood at 437.64 million, up 18.2% y/y. Crucially however, the figure was slightly down on that for the end of June – showing that expansion has now stalled. Of the total herd, there were 44.59 million reproductive sows at the end of Q3. This was up 16.7% y/y but down on the previous quarter. A sharp drop in imports is also helping ensure supplies are better matched to demand. Imports of pork and offal in September fell to 294,000 tonnes – down 37% y/y and well below volumes brought in earlier this year, which regularly topped 450,000 tonnes per month.
Demand
Imports of chicken meat into South Korea rose to 133,894 tonnes in the first nine months of 2021, up 8% y/y. Brazil strengthened its position as the dominant supplier, providing 98,066 tonnes – up 18% y/y. The increase in volumes was partly due to outbreaks of avian flu, which swept through Korean poultry flocks in late 2020 and early 2021. Meanwhile, front-end production of turkey meat is off significantly in the US, potentially taking annual harvest to a level 3.4% below 2020. Despite strong margins, 2021 harvest planning continues to be marked by the impulse to consciously restrict availability to the spot market. This may be imprudent as consistently undersupplying a market could encourage some users to migrate purchase behavior to other proteins.
Trade
Brazilian pork exports are starting to feel the effects of lower Chinese demand, with prices and volumes both weakening in the first few days of October. Average prices paid for Brazil’s fresh and frozen pork exports fell to USD2,320 per tonne in the first six working days of October – a drop of 3% y/y and down from USD2,600 per tonne in June. Brazilian pork exports averaged 4,281 tonnes per day in the first week of October, up 11% y/y but 12% down on the daily average in September. Meanwhile, China’s ban on Brazilian beef is starting to be reflected in export figures, which show a sharp drop in shipments in early October. Brazilian exports of fresh and frozen beef averaged 5,072 tonnes per day in the first week of October, down 38% y/y. China is yet to indicate when its BSE-related beef ban will be lifted but the Philippines this week reopened to Brazilian beef following a six-week suspension.
Prices
- Lamb prices are rising again in Europe, as the market starts to tighten in advance of the pre-Christmas buying period. The EU average price for heavy lambs in the week ending 17 October was EUR679.90 per 100kg, up by 1.3% w/w and 4% higher m/m. Although the market is generally regarded as calm, the modest level of supplies from abattoirs has been sufficient to nudge prices upwards on a number of markets, led by Spain.
- Meanwhile, prices of pork and pigs are showing tentative signs of recovery in China following a prolonged decline. Figures from the Chinese Agriculture Ministry show that prices increased to CNY18.68 per kg in the week to 17 October. This is up 8% m/m but is still 54% down on year-ago levels. Live pig prices have also started to improve, rising to CNY13.75 per kg, up 8% on the previous month. Although farmers are still losing money, confidence has been boosted by recent increases, which have at least put a halt to panic-selling. As pork consumption tends to rise in the fourth quarter, prices should improve – but with supplies still relatively high any increases are likely to be modest in the short term.
Oct 22 - Turkey buys 300,000 tonnes milling wheat in tender, traders say
Turkey's state grain board TMO has provisionally purchased an estimated 300,000 tonnes of wheat in an international tender for the same volume which closed on Thursday, traders said. No more purchases are expected.
Oct 22 - IGC raises forecast for 2021/22 global corn crop
The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday raised its forecast for the 2021/22 global corn crop, predominately reflecting an improved outlook for the United States. In its monthly update, the inter-governmental body increased its 2021/22 world corn (maize) crop outlook by 1 million tonnes to 1.210 billion tonnes.
Oct 22 - Strategie Grains hikes EU maize crop forecast, trims imports
Strategie Grains has sharply increased its forecast for this year's maize crop in the European Union due to good harvest yields and a revision to Polish estimates, it said on Thursday. In a monthly grain report, the consultancy projected 2021 maize production in the 27-nation European Union at 67.5 million tonnes, up from 64.9 million tonnes expected previously and above the 2020 crop of 64.6 million tonnes.
Oct 21 - Russian trader Demetra supplies 60,000 t of wheat to Algeria
Demetra, one of the largest grain traders in Russia, has supplied 60,000 tonnes of wheat to Algeria, it said in a statement on Wednesday. It was the first major supply from Russia to Algeria since 2016.
Oct 21 - Jordan buys about 60,000 tonnes wheat in tender - traders
Jordan's state grains buyer purchased a final total of 60,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in a tender which closed on Wednesday, traders said.It was all bought from trading house Cerealcom Dolj at an estimated $365.00 a tonne c&f for shipment in the second half of January 2022, they said.
Oct 21 - Rains delay wheat planting, autumn grain harvest in China - ministry
Constant rains in recent weeks have delayed wheat planting in main production regions in China, a government official said on Wednesday. China had completed 26% of winter wheat planting across the nation by Oct. 19, slower by 27 percentage points than normal years, due to constant rains since September, according to Pan Wenbo, head of the planting management division under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
Oct 21 - High fertilizer costs not the only threat to 2022 U.S. corn acres - Braun
It is common for the debate over next year’s U.S. corn and soybean plantings to begin before harvest is complete on the current crops, though surging production costs are muddling that discussion despite 2022 prices sitting at nine-year highs for the date.High-priced competitor crops may also increasingly enter the equation next spring, meaning industry participants may be prone to overestimating the total number of acres devoted to corn or soybeans.
Oct 20 - US Ethanol weekly production hits 3-year high, stocks rise: EIA
- Total US ethanol production continued to rise above the 1 million b/d mark in the week ending October 15, posting the highest daily figure since the week of August 3, 2018, data published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday. The production rose a little over 6% to 1.1 million b/d, up from 1.03 million b/d a week earlier and making it the joint third biggest production figure since the agency began publishing data in the week of June 4, 2010. Levels for the week ending October 15 reported by the EIA once again exceeded analyst expectations, which called for a week-on-week increase of 10,000-20,000 barrels.
- Over the week, full production equated to consumption of around 2.82 million mt of corn. Unlike last week, ethanol stock levels also moved up for the week to 20.08 million barrels, compared with 19.85 million barrels a week earlier.
- The figure crushed analyst expectations for stock levels to remain unchanged or move down to 100,000 barrels less.
- Margins, calculated with a model from Iowa State University, showed that estimated running costs for the average Midwest-based plant rose once again this week to $0.72 cents per gallon, up from $0.66 a week earlier.
- Corn prices continued to fall for the week averaging $5.07/bu, down 15 cents from levels of $5.22/bu recorded a week earlier. Meanwhile, finished ethanol prices rose 1 cent week-on-week to $2.33/gallon.
Oct 20 - China's Sept soy imports from Brazil fall 18% y/y on flat demand
China's soybean imports from Brazil fell 18% in September from a year earlier, customs data showed on Wednesday, as poor crush margins limited demand. The world's top buyer of soybeans brought in 5.936 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil last month, down from 7.25 million in the corresponding period a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.
Oct 20 - Bayer: farmers pre-buying crop inputs as supply-chain snarls continue
U.S. farmers are pre-buying seeds and chemicals they need earlier than normal, in a bid to secure supplies for next spring amid sector-wide supply-chain problems, a top executive at German agricultural and pharmaceuticals firm Bayer AG said on Tuesday. Bayer also estimates its average seed prices will go up about 5% for 2022, Liam Condon, president of Bayer's agricultural unit, told Reuters on Tuesday.
Oct 19 - Biofuel groups raise hand as US looks to boost competitiveness of clean energy exports
The US is the world's largest producer of ethanol, accounting for more than 50% of global output. And with China, Canada and India mulling the use of higher blends of ethanol, market opportunities for US ethanol are growing as more countries look for ways to meet climate goals and decarbonize their transportation sectors.
Oct 19 - Brazil to export 3-mil to 3.4-mil mt of soybeans in October: Anec
- Brazil’s grain exporters' association Anec increased its soybean exports forecast for October to 3 million to 3.4 million mt range in its weekly update released on Tuesday.
- Last week, Anec said it expects exports to reach 2.9 million mt in October. The exporters' association said it thinks volume will be at the higher level of the range, but its forecast considers the possibility of shortage in cargo loading. The figure represents a 56.4% rise on the year compared with the 2.1 million mt that the country shipped in the same month of 2020.
- If the forecast is confirmed, Brazil’s annual soybean exports will reach 82.3 million mt by the end of this month, above the 81.3 million mt shipped in the same period last year, and matching the 82.3 million mt total volume of shipments handled through 2020. Estimates on corn exports have also been raised and are now expected to reach between 2 million and 2.3 million mt in October, versus last week’s forecast of 1.9 million mt.
- The volume is still down 49% compared with October 2020's 4.5 million mt volume.
- If the forecast is confirmed, Brazil will export 14.9 million mt of corn by the end of this month, versus 24.6 million mt in the same period last year. In 2020, the country shipped 33.4 million mt in total. Soymeal exports are expected to reach 1.39 million mt in October, below last week’s 1.34 million mt forecasts, and 0.9% up on the year. In the same month last year, Brazil’s shipments totaled 1.33 million mt.
- Brazilian soymeal shipments should reach 14.1 million mt between January and October, Amec said, which is close to the 14.4 million mt volume exported in the same period last year.
In 2020, the country exported 16.8 million mt.
Oct 19 - Egypt's GASC to suspend price advantage for NNC in wheat import shipments, traders say
Egypt's state commodities buyer GASC is to suspend a 15% price advantage given to Egyptian state shipping line National Navigation Company (NNC) to transport wheat GASC has purchased in its tenders, traders in Egypt and Europe said on Tuesday. The change will take place starting from GASC’s next purchase tender, they said.
Oct 19 - U.S. soybean harvest 60% complete, corn 52% complete -USDA
The U.S. soybean harvest was 60% complete as of Sunday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a weekly crop progress report on Monday, ahead of the five-year average of 55% but behind the average estimate in a Reuters analyst poll. Analysts surveyed by Reuters on average had expected soybean harvest progress to reach 62%.
Oct 19 - China's wheat imports fall as elevated prices hurt demand
China's wheat imports in September plunged from the previous year, customs data showed on Monday, as elevated international wheat prices and falling domestic corn prices curbed demand for overseas shipments. China brought in 640,000 tonnes of wheat in September, down 44.8% from a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed, as international cargoes lost price advantage, traders said.
Oct 18 - Pakistan tenders to buy 90,000 tonnes wheat, traders say
A government agency in Pakistan has issued an international tender to purchase and import 90,000 tonnes of wheat, European traders said on Saturday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender from the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) is Oct. 25.
Oct 18 - NOPA September soy crush hits three-month low at 153.800 million bu
The U.S. soybean crush hit a three-month low in September and fell below an average of trade estimates, while soyoil stocks at the end of last month rose for a third straight month, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Friday. NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 153.800 million bushels of soybeans last month, down 3.2% from the 158.843 million bushels crushed in August and 4.8% below the 161.491 million bushels in crushed September 2020.
Oct 18 - Global vegoils prices set to fall in 2022 on strong output recovery - Mielke
Global vegetable oil prices, which have hit multi-year highs in recent months, are set to decline during the first half of 2022 due to a strong recovery in production and inventories, leading analyst Thomas Mielke forecast on Monday. The decline is likely to start in the next two weeks and gain momentum in 2022, led by sunoil, palm and soyoil, the head of Hamburg-based analyst firm Oil World said in an online seminar.
Oct 15 - Market Briefing: Oilseeds (IHSmarkit)
- Brazil’s soybean up 2.5% y/y to 141 million tonnes in 2021/22
- Labor shortage hinders Malaysia’s palm oil output
- Russia reduces export duty on sun oil from USD227.2/tonne to USD194.5/tonne
Production
- Brazil’s soybean output is expected to rise by 2.5% y/y to 141 million tonnes in 2021/22, following a 2.5% jump in planted area to 40 million hectares, said the National Supply Company (Conab).
- The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported US soybean production at 4.4 billion bushels for 2021/22, up 74 million bushels, on higher yield of 51.5 bushels per acre, against a previous estimate of 50.6 bushels per acre.
- Malaysia’s crude palm oil (CPO) estimate for 2020/21 output was revised upwards to 17.9 million tonnes, against 17.8 million tonnes. This is still a 7% y/y decline, USDA reported. Bearish prospects are the result of travel restrictions due to the Covid-19, resulting in labor crunch.
Demand
- US soybean crush was revised slightly upwards to 2.19 billion bushels against September’s forecast of 2.18 billion bushels.
- Turkey’s imports of sunflower seed and its by-products are forecast to rebound in 2021/22, on a recovering output in Ukraine and Russia, combined with greater domestic demand. Turkey should purchase 1.2 million tonnes of sunflower seeds, up 29% y/y, around 850,000 tonnes of sunflower oil, up 10% y/y, and 1 million tonnes of sunflower meal, up 21% y/y.
Trade
- Russia will reduce the export duty on sun oil from USD227.2/tonne to USD194.5/tonne starting November 1, based on reduced indicative price from USD1,324.7/tonne to USD1,277.9/tonne. The duty applies to Russian sunflower oil exports outside the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
- The European Commission (EC) projects a sharp rise in exports outside EU, up 5% y/y to 860,000 tonnes in 2021/22, on increased shipments from Spain, up 6% y/y to 500,400 tonnes, and Italy, up 11% y/y to 260,600 tonnes.
Prices
- Brazil’s ESALQ/BM&FBovespa – Paranaguá Indicator for soy prices surged by 5.2% m/m, closing at BRL175.59/60-kilo bags on September 30, while the CEPEA/ESALQ – Paraná soy indicator strengthened by 4.3% m/m, closing at BRL171.52/60-kilo bags, according to the Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics). The rise was driven by reduced stocks, the appreciation of the US dollar against the real, and strong world demand.
- The average US soybean price for 2021/22 is forecast at USD12.35 per bushel, down 55 cents, reflecting larger supplies, while the soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65 cents per pound.
Oct 15 - Market Briefing: Grains and Feed (IHSmarkit)
- Brazil’s corn output up 34% y/y to 116.3 million tonnes in 2021/22
- Global wheat supplies down 8.6 million tonnes to 1.06 billion tonnes
- Russian 12.5% protein wheat prices up USD6.00 to USD312/tonne
Production
- The National Supply Company (Conab) forecasts Brazil’s corn output at 116.3 million tonnes in 2021/22, up 34% y/y, with planted area up 5% y/y to 21 million hectares, a sharp rebound on 2020/21. This will translate into a strong increase in yields, up 28% y/y to 5.5kg/hectare.
- Global wheat supplies should decline by 8.6 million tonnes to 1.06 billion tonnes, on reduced carry-in stocks for Iran, and reduced production for Canada, Iran, and the US. Meanwhile, US wheat supplies were lowered this month to 2.61 billion bushels in 2021/22 against a previous estimate of 2.67 billion bushels, on reduced output from the NASS Small Grains Summary.
- The US corn supply forecast was revised upwards by 72 million bushels to 16.28 billion bushels, on higher production up 23 million bushels to 15.01 billion bushels, and increased beginning stocks based on the September 30 Grain Stocks report.
Demand
As a result of higher supply availabilities, Brazil’s corn imports are predicted to decline to 900,000 tonnes in 2021/22, down 61% y/y, according to Conab.
Trade
- World wheat exports were adjusted downwards to 199.63 million tonnes compared to 199.74 million tonnes previously, on lower shipments from Canada, almost offset by higher exports from Australia, the EU, and India.
- US corn exports were raised by 25 million bushels to 2.5 billion bushels, reflecting larger supplies and expectations of reduced competition from other major exporters.
Prices
- Brazil’s corn prices fell by 3.1% m/m to BRL91.83/60-kilo bags in September, while the monthly average of BRL92.44/60-kilo bags was 6% lower than in August 2021. The decline was caused by sellers withdrawing from trade talks, waiting for better opportunities in the coming weeks.
- Russian 12.5% protein wheat prices in deep-water ports rose by USD6.00 to USD312/tonne on an FOB basis, last week, a record high since August 2012, on limited supply in the domestic market and the strengthening of the rouble, according to SovEcon.
- From October 13-19, Russia will increase the export duty across all grains on higher indicative prices. Wheat will rise to USD58.7/tonne against USD57.8/tonne a week ago, barley will rise to USD49.4/tonne against USD43.1/tonne w/w, and corn will be raised to USD47.2/tonne from USD45.2/tonne last week.
Oct 15 - Mexico’s Supreme Court ratifies glyphosate and GMO corn ban (AgriCensus)
- Mexico’s Supreme Court unanimously denied four appeals filed against the judicial decision to ban the sowing of genetically-modified corn and a controversial herbicide in the country, according to Mexican press reports.
The court denied the challenges presented by a raft of agriculture seed heavyweights, including Bayer-Monsanto, Syngenta, PHI and Dow.
- The four companies had called for a suspension of a precautionary measure that prevents the use of GMO corn in the country, and had mounted dozens of legal challenges over several years appealing the decision.
A presdential decree, which was published in the Official Gazette of the Federation on December 31, 2020, bans the use of glyphosate, the official name of a Bayer-produced herbicide, along with imports of GMO corn from January 2024.
- The ban will negatively impact farmers’ profitability as glyphosate is a herbicide that allows farmers to reduce costs, Abel Rodriguez Montejo, an analyst with local consultancy firm Grupo Consultor de Mercados Agricolas (GCMA) told Agricensus.
“Once this product is banned, farmers will have less profitability and corn production could also be negatively impacted as the glyphosate does not have a substitute product,” he said, while also warning that the GMO ban is likely to be difficult to manage.
“The prohibition of imports of GMO corn will have a negative impact as Mexico mostly imports yellow corn from the US, which is mostly GMO corn. This year, we will import 17.8 million mt of corn, of which 1 million will be white corn and the rest will be yellow corn from the US and, in a small proportion from Brazil,” the analyst said.
- Mexico has already imported a total of 11.8 million mt of corn in the first eight months of the year, some 66.3% of full 2021 forecast.
- According to the GCMA statistics, Mexico imported 10.73 million mt of yellow corn from the US, a 9.4% increase compared to imports of 9.81 million mt in the same period last year. The country is largely self-sufficient in white corn but depends on imports of mostly GMO yellow corn from the US for livestock feed.
GCMA had also estimated that the overall corn production in Mexico this year will reach 27.5 million mt.
Oct 15 - Market Briefing: Meat and Livestock (IHSmarkit)
- UK pigmeat production down 10% y/y in September.
- Demand for chicken and eggs rising in Brazil.
- Value of US beef export tops $1 billion in August.
- Brazilian cattle prices slide to early-year levels.
Production
UK clean pig slaughterings fell sharply in September as the industry wrestled with labor shortages and other supply chain issues. Government figures show that 792,000 clean pigs were slaughtered in September – down 13% y/y and 15% m/m. Pigmeat production was 74,000 tonnes, some 10% lower than in September 2020. As well as a shortage of butchers, the industry has been hit by a deficit of truck drivers and issues with supplies of CO2 for slaughtering. The last of these challenges was addressed this week, through a deal that should prevent future shortages of CO2. There are also signs that the government may be about to backdown and grant temporary visas for thousands of butchers to come in from overseas. With more than 100,000 animals backed up on farms, it remains to be seen if this will help prevent the mass on-farm pig culls that producers have been warning about.
Demand
Chicken meat prices rose again within Brazil in the first week of October, adding to optimism among producers who are also benefiting from high prices on international markets. Despite recent price increases, chicken is still the cheapest among the three most consumed meats in Brazil. With supply and demand well balanced, the Brazilian poultry sector has been able to pass on higher production costs. Average export prices for unprocessed chicken rose by 27% y/y in September – while export volumes were up 22% y/y. Within Brazil itself, egg consumption has also risen as consumers seek out affordable forms of animal protein. The average Brazilian consumer ate 251 eggs in 2020, up from just 148 a decade earlier. Industry body ABPA expects consumption to reach a record 255 units per capita this year, before rising to 262 in 2022.
Trade
US beef exports soared to another new value record in August, topping the $1 billion mark for the first time ever. August beef exports totaled 132,577 tonnes, up 21% y/y while export value climbed 55% to $1.04 billion, according to data compiled by USMEF. Meanwhile, China has reinstated a ban on British beef following a case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in southwestern England. Elsewhere, Belarus is quickly emerging as an important supplier of beef to China, allowing the former Soviet state to reduce its reliance on selling to Russia. Figures for the first eight months of 2021 show that Belarus exported 69,809 tonnes of beef to Russia – down 15% y/y. Meanwhile, exports to mainland China increased by 278% to 14,878 tonnes.
Prices
Prices paid for Brazilian cattle have slipped back to levels seen at the start of this year due to a slowdown in domestic demand for beef and an ongoing ban on shipments to China. Having surged to BRL320 per 15kg unit in July, the Cepea indicator price for fed cattle slid to BRL271 per 15kg ($3.27/kg) on 8 October. Wholesale beef prices also fell sharply on Brazil’s domestic market as processors sought a home for beef that would otherwise have been shipped to China. Processors are responding by slaughtering fewer cattle, and in some cases sending workers on temporary leave until trade picks up. These bearish factors are also being felt in the market for replacement animals, prices of which have fallen as potential buyers start to lose confidence in market prospects.
Oct 15 - Market Briefing: Dairy (IHSmarkit)
- US reports 28% y/y surge in foodservice demand for dairy
- Australian exports driven by Chinese demand for liquid milk
- European butter price breaks three-year record
Production
US mozzarella production bounced back in August, pushing total cheese production higher than forecast, but production slipped for butter and NFDM (and SMP). Despite the slowdown in milk production, cheese production is still running strong, and is to remain, making it possible for some milk to shift and make the cheese outlook at the expense of butter/powder.
Demand
- The a2 Milk Company has reported a 30% y/y plunge in full year 2021 revenues to NZD1.21 billion and EBITDA decreased by 78% to NZ$123.4 million. Performance continued to be impacted by a demand shift due to COVID-19, challenges in the infant nutrition channel, and the company’s actions to rebalance l inventory. Inventory at the end of the period was NZ$112.2 million, reflecting the impact of the NZ$108.6 million stock write-down, as the collapse of China reseller (daigou) channel significantly damaged demand for a2’s products.
- US retail sales in August showed cheese and butter volumes down y/y, but the USDA commodity data has put domestic cheese disappearance up 4% and butter up 17%. Foodservice sales were up 28% y/y in value, driving the recent gains in US dairy consumption.
Trade
Australian exports surged 51% y/y (or 34% excluding liquid milk) in July. Australian foreign trade was driven by China, which continues importing significantly more liquid milk compared with last year, as well as more Australian cheese and SMP.
Prices
- Butter prices have jumped by more than 7% in both France and the Netherlands over the past week, their highest levels for three years. All other main dairy commodities have also increased sharply as milk powder producers have reported being effectively ‘sold out’ for the rest of this year and are having to focus on meeting existing delivery contracts.
- The Dutch ZuivelNL price has leapt by EUR310 in a week – up 7% - to EUR4,700 per tonne, while the French AgriMer price is up by 7%, at EUR4,362 per tonne.
- On the German Kempten exchange, the industrial (bulk) butter price is up by 4%, at EUR4,700 per tonne, while the retail (packaged) butter price is up by 3%, at EUR4,370 per tonne.
Oct 15 - Turkey provisionally buys 325,000 tonnes in corn tender, say traders
Turkish grain board TMO provisionally bought 325,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in an international tender on Thursday, European traders said. That was more than estimated in earlier trader assessments and matched the volume TMO had been seeking.
Oct 15 - Jordan bought 60,000 tonnes of barley in tender, traders say
Jordan's state grains buyer bought 60,000 tonnes of animal feed barley on Thursday in an international tender seeking 120,000 tonnes of optional-origin supplies, European traders said. The barley was thought to have been sold by trading firm Cargill at $329.75 a tonne, including cost and freight (C&F), for shipment in the second half of January, they said.
Oct 15 - Rains help Argentine corn sowing as farmers grumble about export policy
Rains in central Argentina have helped farmers plant 2021/22 corn with 23.2% of expected area sown so far, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday, while growers wrestle with a new export policy that they say could force them to plant less. The key corn-growing provinces of San Luis and Cordoba are enjoying good ground moisture, the exchange said in its weekly report.
Oct 15 - China raises 2022 minimum purchase price for wheat to 2,300 yuan/T
China has raised the mininum purchasing price for wheat in 2022, the state planner said on Thursday, part of an effort to enhance grain security in the country. The National Development and Reform Commission has set the 2022 minimum purchase price for wheat at 2,300 yuan ($357) per tonne, up from 2,260 yuan per tonne in 2021, a notice published on the state planner's website said.
Oct 14 - Iran buying record volume of wheat after worst drought in 50 years – sources
Iran needs to buy a record 8 million tonnes of wheat in the current season, Iranian industry sources said, after its domestic crop was hit by drought, while the jump in imports will coincide with high global grain prices adding to pressures on the country's finances. Bread is a staple in Iran and any shortage would be another blow for the government after violent protests in July, as people took to the streets over water shortages.
Oct 14 - Argentine farmers have sold 31.5 mln tonnes of 2020/21 soy - gov't
Argentine farmers have sold 31.5 million tonnes of soybeans from the 2020/21 growing season, the government said on Wednesday in a report with data updated through Oct. 6. The rhythm of sales was behind that of the previous season.
Oct 14 - Australian farmers sidestep Chinese tariff hit with record canola crop
When top barley buyer China last year slapped tariffs of more than 80% on imports from Australia amid a bilateral spat, grain farmers Down Under could have been forgiven for fearing tough times ahead. But a switch to canola, combined with ideal growing conditions and near record prices for the yellow-flowering oilseed, have proved a boom for farmers as they prepare for a second consecutive year of a bumper grain harvest.
Oct 14 - Rising U.S. stockpiles ease concerns for CBOT corn, soy traders - Braun
U.S. corn and soybean stock projections have grown heavier over the last month, and Tuesday’s update from the government appeared to change the mood in markets that were not long ago fearful over tight supplies. The Chicago corn market now signals increased comfort with current supply levels, but the projected stocks-to-use, a measure of supply and demand, remains lower than in most prior years.
Oct 13 - Brazil’s Mato Grosso storage shortage underpins corn selloff fears (AgriCensus)
- Brazilian farmers have reported a shortage of oilseeds and grains storage capacity in the state of Mato Grosso - the country’s agriculture powerhouse - in a move that raises questions on potential market impacts as new production comes off fields. The limit of storage options could be particularly significant for the domestic corn supply as Brazil prepares to harvest what is expected to be a massive soybean crop.
“Farmers have been holding back on corn spot sales waiting for higher post-harvest prices but a ‘leftover’ pressure is likely ahead as producers need to sell off stocks to free up space for upcoming soybeans,” HedgePoint Global’s Victor Martins told Agricensus.
“In January, this leftover pressure tends to hit the market,” Martins said.
- However, there is no consensus on what the impact of a shortage of storage could spell for the domestic market.
“If the new soybean crop meets its potential, spot corn sales may gather some momentum to free up space for beans, but I do not believe it would come to a large-scale selloff,” Agrural’s Daniele Siqueira said.
“It would be something more concentrated in Mato Grosso as there is little corn available in other states due to the safrinha crop loss and even in Mato Grosso the amount of unsold corn is relatively small,” Siqueira added.
- The shortage of silos and warehouses in Mato Grosso is structural as the state has capacity to store up to 38 million mt of grains and oilseeds from an estimated 2021/22 production of 77 million mt, according to data from the state’s agriculture institute IMEA.
Amid robust demand, Mato Grosso’s farmers have been complaining about the shortage of storage capacity and high storage costs at third party facilities. Moreover, funding to increase and improve storage facilities under the annual federal rural credit programme Plano Safra ran out in just over a month after the release of the 2021/22 programme, with farmers unable to contract further volumes.
However, while Martins believes the lack of storage space may push corn spot sales up ahead, pressuring domestic prices, Siqueira thinks storage issues are “secondary in the short term.”
“If we produce 144 million mt of beans and 118 million mt of corn in the 2021/22 marketing year, storage may become a widespread problem ahead but that is not yet the case,” Siqueira said.
Oct 13 - Argentina says corn exports 'open' despite policy row with farmers
Argentina's corn export market remains "open" despite a new government policy that prioritizes crops that are already harvested over forward sales of the upcoming crop, the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday. The 2021/22 crop is currently being planted in the world's second biggest corn exporting country. The government said it wants to sell last season's corn before approving more exports of the upcoming crop, which will not start to be harvested for another five months.
Oct 13 - Desperate for tires.' Components shortage roils U.S. harvest
Manufacturing meltdowns are hitting the U.S. heartland, as the semiconductor shortages that have plagued equipment makers for months expand into other components. Supply chain woes now pose a threat to the U.S. food supply and farmers' ability to get crops out of fields.
Oct 13 - China September soybean imports fall 30% on slowing demand
China's soybean imports in September fell 30% from the same month the previous year, and hit the lowest for the month since 2014, customs data showed on Wednesday, as poor crush margins curbed demand. China, the world's top buyer of soybeans, brought in 6.88 million tonnes of the oilseed in September, down from 9.79 million tonnes last year, General Administration of Customs data showed.
Oct 12 - China’s 400kt mt jump in soyoil imports likely to benefit Argentina: analysts
- China has upwardly revised its soyoil imports in 2021/22 by about 400,000 mt from earlier estimates - an increase in demand which is likely to benefit Argentina, sources told Agricensus on Tuesday. China, in its latest Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (Casde) report published Tuesday, revised its import estimate upwards for soybean oil by 400,000 mt, or around 66% from the previous estimates made in October, to reach 1 million mt in 2021/22.
Analysts expect most of the additional soyoil tonnage required by China to be sourced from Argentina.
- Terry Reilly, senior commodity analyst at Futures International told Agricensus he was “not confident the US will see any of the China or India business for soybean oil… We have problems here sourcing [soybean oil] SBO for renewable fuel production."
“Argentina is likely to benefit especially” Reilly added.
According to an Argentine source meanwhile, the US is "unlikely to be able to supply soyoil China...and neither Brazil due to the high domestic demand from biodiesel."
On Tuesday, China also revised its imports for palm oil, up by 300,000 mt from the previous estimate, while imports of rapeseed oil were lowered by 400,000 mt due to high global rapeseed oil prices.
Oct 12 - 'It's a madhouse': Organic U.S. soy prices hit record, fuel food inflation
U.S. prices for organic soybeans used to feed livestock and manufacture soy milk have surged to record highs as imports that make up most of the country's supply have declined, triggering price increases for food including organically raised chicken. The costly soybeans and higher-priced organic products are fueling food inflation at a time consumers are eager to eat better and focus on health during the COVID-19 pandemic. The $56 billion U.S. organic food sector is also grappling with a shortage of shipping containers and a tight labor market as global food prices hit a 10-year high.
Oct 12 - Surprise potential for USDA's U.S. corn and soy yields - Braun
Heavy soybean stocks from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shocked the market less than two weeks ago, and the oilseed could once again catch traders off guard on Tuesday given the narrow range of pre-report yield guesses for the U.S. harvest. Analysts have left a little more wiggle room on corn yield, though corn and soybean ending stocks are expected to increase versus last year and last month's estimates, and futures could come under pressure if supplies are unexpectedly large.
Oct 11 - Turkey provisionally buys 310,000 feed barley in tender
Turkey's state grain board TMO provisionally bought an estimated 310,000 tonnes of animal feed barley from optional origins in a tender which closed on Friday, European traders said. No more purchases are expected. Purchases in all TMO tenders are provisional and subject to final confirmation in the coming days.
Oct 11 - Heavy rain hits China corn harvest, raises quality concerns
Heavy rain across northern China this week has delayed the corn harvest, submerged fields in water and raised concerns about the quality of the crop in the world's second largest producer, analysts and farmers said on Friday. China is expected to harvest one of its largest corn crops in years this season after tight supply last year pushed prices to record levels.
Oct 11 - Brazil soymeal exports soar as drought disrupts Argentina export route
Soymeal shipments from Brazil's Paranagua port jumped in September driven by strong demand and a drought that has disrupted a traditional logistics route via Argentina. In a statement sent to Reuters on Friday, Brazil's Paranagua port authority said exporters shipped 419,314 tonnes of soymeal last month, a 35% rise from August and almost 33% up from the same month a year ago.
Oct 08 - Argentina’s crush utilisation rate at 56% by end 2021/22: Ciara
- Argentina’s crushing industry utilisation rate could fall as low as 56% by the end of the 2021/22 production cycle, down from 62% in the 2020/21 cycle and one of the lowest rates in over a decade, according to a new study by local oilseed crushing and exporters chamber Ciara-CEC.
If finally achieved, this utilisation rate would be the second lowest rate in the last decade, coming in only above the 53% registered in 2011/12.
“The oilseeds crushing industry continues to process soybeans with negative margins... The strong demand for bean exports has set the pace of the trend in prices for available goods, with slightly positive margins,” Ciara said in the report.
- The report also noted the gradual decline in Argentina's capacity over the last decade, and the rise of neighbouring Brazil.
“In the last 10 years, soybean production in Argentina has had a drop of 6 million mt, 9%, from 50 to 44 million mt,” the chamber said in the report.
“In the same period, Brazil was the country with the greatest increase in its production, an increase of 69 million tons, or 91%, from 75 to 144 million mt, while soybean production in the US had an increase of 28 million mt, equivalent to 31%, going from 91 to 119 million,” the report said.
“Argentina has lost market opportunities, which have been taken by the United States and Brazil, who were able to supply the increased demand and world trade of soybean and derivative products,” Ciara concluded.
- According to Ciara’s monthly monitor, the sector crushed a total of 29.5 million mt of soybeans in the January-August period, marking the third highest volume on record. In August alone, the crushing sector crushed 3.57 million mt of soybean, up from 3.43 million mt in the same month in 2020, Ciara said.
- Argentina is forecast to crush 40.5 million mt of soybeans this year, up 12.5% compared with nearly 36 million mt of soybeans crushed in 2020, according to previous reports.
Oct 08 - Market Briefing: Grains and Feed (IHSmarkit)
- Global rice prices rebounded in September.
- Pakistan’s bumper wheat crop insufficient to meet domestic demand.
- Vietnam diversifies corn origins amid container shortage crisis.
Production
Pakistan should produce a total of 27 million tonnes of wheat in 2021/22, up 8% y/y, as the country seeks to increase volumes, due to continued population growth, according to USDA. However, the projected large crop is not likely to meet domestic demand, and maintain large strategic reserves. Total use is estimated at 26.8 million tonnes in 2021/22, up 3% y/y.
Demand
- Vietnam diversified its list of key suppliers for corn, due to high corn prices and increased logistical costs. Corn imports from Argentina and Eastern Europe dropped by 32% and 68% y/y in the first eight months of 2021, while imports from India, Myanmar, and Pakistan rose from less than 10,000 tonnes last year to 1 million tonnes, 197 million tonnes, and 80,000 tonnes, respectively. Imports from the US and South Africa also increased by 2-3 times y/y, totaling 440,000 tonnes and 206,000 tonnes.
- Sudan’s ports were brought to a standstill as demonstrators from the Beja tribe blocked roads and shut ports along the Red Sea, to protest against poor political and economic conditions, according to a local news report. The Sudanese government has warned the country is already running out of wheat stocks and medicines.
Trade
Total Vietnamese rice exports should decline by 3% y/y to 6.1 million tonnes in 2020/21. Exports will continue to be hindered by low demand and strong competition especially from India and Thailand which offer more competitive prices. According to USDA, Thailand white rice was favored in recent months, due to better prices and quality.
Prices
- Thailand’s benchmark 5% broken white rice and parboiled 100% rice prices stood at USD387/tonne and USD392/tonne, respectively. Thai rice prices became more competitive in comparison with other major rice exporters, driving demand for parboiled rice exports from Benin.
- World wheat prices rose by almost 4% m/m, and sharply up 41% y/y, due to tight export availabilities and robust global demand, according to FAO. Solid demand, bearish production prospects in Russia drove barley prices upwards, while rice prices were sustained by increased trading activities. Corn prices grew marginally up 0.3% m/m, due to improved global crop prospects, and the beginning of harvests in the US and Ukraine, offsetting disruptions in US ports following Hurricane Ida.
- FAO’s All Rice Price Index (2014-2016=100) averaged 98.7 points in September 2021, up 0.9% m/m, but still down 11.5% y/y, driven by a rebound in Indica, up 1%, on higher trading activities in Asia.
Oct 08 - Market Briefing: Oilseeds (IHSmarkit)
- Reduced soybean oil supply could favour sunflower oil.
- US soybean harvest at 34% complete in the week ending October 5.
- Malaysia’s palm oil shipments up in September.
Production
- IHS Markit estimates Brazil’s soybean production at 145 million tonnes in 2021/22, up 6% y/y.
- USDA estimated US soybean harvest at 34% complete in the week ending October 5, a sharp rise compared to 16% last week, and a five-year average of 26%, but still 1% point lower y/y.
- Italia Olivicola and the Italian association of olive oil millers (AIFO) project domestic olive oil production to reach between 290,000-310,000 tonnes in 2021/22, a slight recovery compared to last crop year’s total of 255,000 tonnes, driven by expected rebound in Puglia and other southern regions. Meanwhile, the North should record a steep fall, even though this will have little impact on national production volumes.
Demand
Prospects for soy supply shortages in major soybean oil suppliers may lead key import markets, namely India and China, to resort to sunflower oil, IHS Markit predicts. Tight supply reflects a higher demand for biodiesel in Brazil and the US, as economies are gradually re-opening, while the Covid-19 pandemic situation improves, and vaccination campaigns make significant progress. Significant productions are expected in Ukraine and Russia in 2021/22, following poor outputs in 2020/21. IHS Markit has estimated Ukraine’s sun oil production at 7 million tonnes, up 28%, y/y, and Russian output at 5.6 million tonnes, up 8% y/y.
Trade
Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 33.6% to 1.62 million tonnes in September (full month) from the total reported in August, as per cargo surveyor data from Amspec. Likewise, data from Intertek Testing Services (ITS) highlighted an increase of 40% m/m to 1.69 million tonnes. In terms of major destination, data showed increased shipments to India, China and the EU.
Prices
- International palm oil prices reached ten-year high in September, due to prospects of lower production in Malaysia, on labor shortages and solid demand, FAO stated. Rapeseed oil prices remained elevated on supply tightness. Meanwhile, global soy and sunflower oil prices fell in September on concerns over soy oil use by the biodiesel industry, and prospects of ample sun oil supplies in the Black Sea region in 2021/22.
- November soybean futures lost 8 1/2 cents to end the session at USD12.42 per bushel, as the US harvest progresses, favorable rains in key growing regions of Brazil and a correction in energy markets.
Oct 08 - Market Briefing: Dairy (IHSmarkit)
- Milk production suffers losses in Oceania on unfavorable weather
- Synlait’s shift in production from infant formula to ingredients favors financial performance
- GDT commodities stable after 5 October event
Production
- New Zealand’s milk production was down 5% y/y on a liters basis and 4% down y/y on a milk solids basis. Following a good start to the season, pasture conditions were impacted by colder and wetter weather in August, compared with a milder August 2020. This brought the country’s production in 12 months to August down 2% y/y. Season-to-date collections were 130.9 million kgMS, 3% down on last year.
- Unfavorable weather has also damaged production in Australia, where volumes fell 4% y/y in July. Tasmania and Victoria milk productions dipped 7% and 5% y/y, respectively. Production for the 12 months to July was up by a marginal 0.2% y/y. Australian season-to-date collections reached 12.2 million kgMS, 1% down y/y.
Demand
New Zealand’s Synlait reported a 35% y/y volume dip in sales of the Nutritionals division in financial year 2021. The decline was partially offset by sales of lactoferrin, which maintained momentum despite unfavorable market pricing. Lactoferrin sales increased 10% to 33 tonnes driven by increased production and demand. As a result of a drop in demand for consumer infant formula that carried over from 2020, Synlait turned to manufacturing ingredient products. Consequently, Ingredient sales increased 29% to 125,900 tonnes.
Trade
Fonterra’s August dairy imports into China grew 27% y/y or by 77,200 tonnes. WMP continued to show record import levels, primarily from New Zeeland. Liquid milk volumes saw y/y surge from Germany. Meanwhile, total exports from New Zealand fell 13% y/y in August, kept afloat by higher demand for SMP to Southeast Asia.
Prices
The October 5 GDT auction saw little to no change in average dairy commodity prices, with market factors balancing the overall result. WMP was the only product that declined at the event, down 1% to $3,749 per tonne. All remaining commodities saw slight increases of less than 1%, which resulted in the flatness of the GDT Price Index. The stability in quotations came as Fonterra increased its offer volumes at the event compared with the auction two weeks ago. The volumes increased by 19%, driven by a 22% surge in WMP and a 19% rise in SMP.
Oct 08 - Market Briefing: Meat and Livestock (IHSmarkit)
- Beef supplies tighten in EU, pig cull looms in UK.
- US turkey meat consumption continues to fall.
- Brazil ships record volume of pork in September.
- Decline in EU pork prices now into fourth month.
Production
European cattle prices have risen for the eleventh week in a row, as tight supplies in a number of member states continue to dominate market conditions. Official data for the first six months of 2021 show that total beef production was down by 0.5% year-on-year across the EU – but this figure masks substantial regional variations. While output was substantially higher in some of the less significant markets across the EU, output for the first half-year was down 8.8% year-on-year in Ireland, by 4.1% in Austria, by 1.5% in Germany, and by 0.4% in the Netherlands. Meanwhile, UK pig producers are preparing to cull thousands of pigs after failing to convince the government to address butcher shortages by granting temporary visas for migrant workers.
Demand
US turkey meat consumption is set to fall 3% y/y in 2021 to 5.0 billion pounds, as there continues to be little sign of demand support in a market that has been weakening for several years now. Turkey demand in the US is estimated to fall by another 1.2% y/y in 2022 and hold flat in the years beyond. US broiler meat consumption during 2021 is expected to be flat y/y at 37.4 billion pounds, as consumer preferences for wings and promotional pushes surrounding chicken breast have not translated to the entirety of the chicken market. However, in 2022, broiler meat consumption is projected to grow by 0.9% y/y to 37.7 billion pounds.
Trade
Brazilian pigmeat exports reached a new milestone in September as shipments of fresh and frozen pork surpassed 100,000 tonnes for the first time ever. Exports for the month totaled 101,900 tonnes, an increase of 34% y/y. Of the total (which excludes processed pork), half went to mainland China with a further 12.5% going to Hong Kong. The figures show that Brazilian exports to the Chinese market are holding up well when compared to those from North America. Brazil is also helping fill gaps left by Germany, whose pork is still banned by China. Elsewhere, Poland was this week given the green light to export poultry products to the US after its inspection system was deemed equivalent to that in the US.
Prices
In the week ending 3 October, the EU average price for Class E pigs was EUR134.14 per 100kg, down by 1.4% week-on-week. This means that the price has now been falling continuously for the last four months. Prices are down especially sharply in Poland – a fall of 4.1% compared with the previous week – while France, Spain and the Netherlands all saw prices fall by 2.1% w/w. Meanwhile in the UK, the EU-spec Standard Pig Price (SPP) fell by 3% w/w to £148.82 per 100kg (EUR175/100kg). Faced with labor shortages, the market is seeking an outlet for pigs killed with minimal butchery, according to AHDB. This could be the case for several weeks to come, depending on how long there is a backlog of pigs on farms.
Oct 08 - Tunisia buys about 100,000 tonnes durum wheat in tender, traders say
Tunisia's state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 100,000 tonnes of durum wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender which closed on Thursday, European traders said. It was bought in four consignments of about 25,000 tonnes.
Oct 08 - India's cotton exports could fall as local demand rises - trade
India's cotton exports could fall by 36% in 2021/22 from a year ago, as domestic demand has been rising amid limited supplies after carry-forward stocks nearly halved from a year ago, industry officials said on Thursday. Lower exports from the world's biggest cotton producer could support global prices CTc2, which jumped to their highest levels in a decade on strong demand from top consumer China.
Oct 08 - World food prices hit 10-year peak - FAO
World food prices rose for a second consecutive month in September to reach a 10-year peak, driven by gains for cereals and vegetable oils, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday. The Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) also projected record global cereal production in 2021, but said this would be outpaced by forecast consumption.
Oct 07 - India's wheat exports could quadruple to 8-year high as global prices rally
India's wheat exports in 2021 could quadruple from a year ago to the highest level in eight years as a rally in global prices and higher freight costs make Indian wheat lucrative for Asian buyers, two industry officials told Reuters. Higher exports would help the world's second biggest producer bring down record inventories and provide Asian buyers with cheaper supplies amid a rally in global prices due to limited supplies from major exporters such as Russia and Canada.
Oct 07 - U.S. Congress Democrats target palm oil, beef trade in deforestation bill
Democrats in the U.S. Congress on Wednesday were set to unveil legislation to reduce illegal deforestation globally by restricting the trade of certain agricultural commodities, such as palm oil and cattle, produced with those methods. The "FOREST Act of 2021," introduced simultaneously in the Senate and House of Representatives by Democratic Senator Brian Schatz and Representative Earl Blumenauer, could have a major impact on trade from nations such as Brazil and Indonesia, but faces a difficult climb in the deeply divided Congress.
Oct 07 - Court confirms Brazil's JBS must reinstate indigenous workers, pay damages
A labor court in Santa Catarina has confirmed an injunction ordering JBS SA, the world's largest meatpacker, to reinstate about 40 indigenous people dismissed after May 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic started to ravage meat plants in Brazil. The court also ruled that JBS should pay individual and collective damages to the workers involved in the suit, according to a decision dated Oct. 4 seen by Reuters.
Oct 06 - Egypt's GASC buys 240k of Russian, Romanian wheat, at $351.61/mt CFR (agriCensus)
- Egypt's state grain importer picked up 240,000 mt of Russian and Romanian wheat paying $320.51/mt FOB and $351.61/mt CFR on average for second half of November shipment. The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) booked three 60,000 mt Russian wheat cargoes paying $320.69/mt FOB Novorossiysk and $351.99/mt CFR to Solaris.
- Cargill also secured one Romanian wheat cargo at $319.97/mt Fob Constanta and $350.47/mt CFR. The shipment is expected during November 11-20 period.
- At its previous tender, which closed September 8, Egypt booked 300,000 mt of Ukrainian and Russian wheat for October 25-November 3 shipment paying $313/mt FOB and $344.93/mt CFR.
- Egypt is the world’s biggest wheat importer and is expected to import 13 million mt in the 2021/22 marketing year, according to USDA data.
Oct 06 - EU 2021/22 soft wheat exports at 8.07 million tonnes by Oct. 3
Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2021/22 season that started in July had reached 8.07 million tonnes by Oct. 3, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. That was up from 5.56 million tonnes by the same week in 2020/21, the data showed.
Oct 06 - Russia cuts grain export forecast, says Interfax
The Russian agricultural ministry has cut its grain export forecast for this harvest year to 45-48 million tonnes, Interfax news agency cited the ministry as saying on Tuesday, down from a previous estimate of 51 million tonnes.
Oct 06 - Ukraine 2022 winter wheat sowing 46% complete - ministry
Ukrainian farms had sown 3.1 million hectares of winter wheat for the 2022 harvest as of Oct 4 or 46% of the expected area, the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday. Winter wheat accounts for 95% of Ukraine's total wheat sowing area.
Oct 05 - EU wheat exports surge 1.1m mt, as French, Italian data restored (AgriCensus)
- European wheat exports jumped by 1.1 million mt in the week to October 4, as data from the European Commission was boosted by the return of figures for French and Italian exporters, according to a weekly update issued Tuesday. Figures for the two nations - including the data for one of the bloc's major producers - have been missing for around six weeks and led to a sharp increase in overall figures.
- Total wheat exports between July 1 and October 4 reached almost 8.1 million mt, 45% higher compared to the same stage of 2020, as French and Italian exports were finally added for the period from August 12 to September 29. In terms of weekly exports, the bloc's figures stood at 326,773 mt, with 115,973 mt loaded out of Poland, 54,372 mt from Lithuania, 48,572 mt from Germany, and 39,415 mt from Latvia.
- Algeria remained the main export destination, increasing its imports by 268,200 mt during the week to 1.17 million mt, followed by South Korea (822,575 mt) and Egypt (757,000 mt).
- Barley exports picked up to 57,942 mt, divided between Latvia (25,372 mt) and Lithuania (31,500 mt).
Total exports moved to 2.46 million mt, 9% higher compared to the same period in 2020.
- Weekly corn imports dropped to their lowest since the start of the marketing year on July 1 and totalled 99,150 mt, with more than a half of that taken by Belgium (53,035 mt). Total corn imports have now reached 3.6 million mt, 17% behind last year’s pace. Brazil (2.36 million mt) remained the number one supplier to the bloc, followed by Ukraine (798,991 mt) and Serbia (229,073 mt).
Oct 05 - CBOT soybeans drop to 9-1/2-month low on export worries
U.S. soybean futures hit their lowest since December on Monday, with concerns over exports in focus after U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai pledged to press Beijing over its failure to keep promises made in former U.S. President Donald Trump's trade deal. Traders also said the market remained under pressure from a U.S. Agriculture Department report last week showing U.S. supplies were bigger than expected. Soymeal futures dropped to their lowest in more than a year on concerns about a supply glut due to the easy availability of soybeans.
Oct 05 - Canada's drought forces canola importers to turn elsewhere
Canada's smallest canola harvest in 13 years, resulting from severe drought, is forcing importers like Japan and Mexico to pay more or scour other countries for the yellow-flowering oilseed. With the scant available Canadian canola fetching high prices, customers of the world's biggest canola exporter are leaning more heavily on smaller-producing countries or alternative vegetable oils such as palm and soybean oil, adding to global food inflation.
Oct 05 - StoneX trims U.S. 2021 corn yield estimate; raises soybean yield
Commodity brokerage StoneX on Monday lowered its estimate of the average U.S. 2021 corn yield to 176.6 bushels per acre (bpa), from 177.5 in its previous monthly report released Sept. 2. The firm raised its corn production forecast to 15.022 billion bushels, from 14.998 billion previously.
Oct 04 - Zambia to export over 1 mln tonnes maize after bumper harvest
Zambia will export more than 1 million tonnes of white maize in a bid to stimulate private sector involvement and enhance trade in agricultural commodities, Agriculture Minister Mtolo Phiri said on Friday. Zambia's maize production rose 7% to 3.62 million tonnes in the 2020/2021 crop season from 3.38 million tonnes in the previous one, the highest in the nation's history on the back of good rains and improved farming methods.
Oct 04 - Duty cut lifts India's palm oil imports in Sept to a record 1.4 mln T- dealers
India's palm oil imports in September more than doubled from a year ago to a record 1.4 million tonnes as buyers increased purchases of refined palm oil ahead of key festivals and to take advantage of newly lowered duties, brokers and dealers said. Higher purchases by India, the world's biggest buyer of vegetable oils, could support palm oil prices that are trading near a record high hit earlier this week.
Oct 04 - French maize harvest 2% complete as slow start continues
French farmers had gathered just 2% of this year's grain maize crop by Sept. 27 as a slow start to harvesting continued, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed on Friday. Harvest progress had advanced from 1% a week earlier but was well behind the 31% seen a year earlier, according to FranceAgriMer's weekly cereal crop report.
Oct 01 - Market Briefing: Meat and Livestock (IHSmarkit)
- Pig culls loom in UK due to abattoir labor shortage.
- Global broiler meat consumption set for modest increase in 2021.
- Argentina relaxes beef export restrictions to tap Chinese demand.
- Pork prices move higher in Brazil as exports rise.
Production
The total number of pigs in the US, recorded on 1 September, was 75.4 million head, according to the USDA, a reduction of 4% compared to the same date a year ago. The number of breeding sows was down 2% on last year at 6.19 million head. A breeding herd this far reduced will be difficult to bring back quickly and limits the production capabilities for 2022. British pig producers are warning that tens of thousands of pigs may soon have to be culled on farms due to a shortage of butchers in pork processing plants. The UK government said visas would be granted for up to 5,500 poultry workers to work in the UK in the run up to Christmas. But there were no similar measures for the pig sector despite warnings that large numbers of animals will otherwise have to be destroyed.
Demand
Global broiler meat consumption in 2021 is projected to rise by 0.6% y/y to 104.40 million tonnes, in a similar fashion to the lighter gains of 2020. With broiler meat showing resilience in 2020 amid the worldwide chaos in the protein markets, there will be less of a relative recovery than for other types of meat. Across these overall gains, a majority of the demand growth for 2021 will be from mainland China, with moderate increases for most other regions, with the US and the EU being the notable exceptions to this growth. Chinese demand is to grow by 1.8% y/y in 2021 after a substantial 9.3% y/y increase in 2020.
Trade
Argentine beef exporters are preparing to ramp up shipments to China after the government this week agreed to partially relax restrictions on overseas sales. Exports of a particular category of beef favored in China can resume from Monday (4 October). Restrictions on exports of some other popular beef cuts will remain in place. Meanwhile, Brazilian beef exports remain at high levels despite the lack of progress with efforts to overturn a temporary ban on sales to China. Shipments of unprocessed beef averaged 10,877 tonnes per day in the first three weeks of September – up 60.5% y/y.
Prices
Prices for pork and live pigs both rose again in Brazil last week as new forecasts pointed to solid gains for both exports and domestic consumption in 2021. Live pig prices in São Paulo jumped to BRL7.73 per kg (USD1.43/kg) on 23 September – up 7% w/w. Shipments of unprocessed pork averaged 5,550 tonnes per day in the first three weeks of September – up 53% y/y. The increase came despite logistical problems such as a lack of containers. New forecasts from the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA) suggest Brazilian pork exports will reach a record 1.15 million tonnes this year – up 12% y/y.
Oct 01 - Ukraine wheat export pace overtakes 2020 with 8.9m mt shipped (AgriCensus)
- Ukrainian wheat exports finally overtook last year’s export pace, as September marked a new monthly high, data from the agriculture ministry showed Friday. Over the week, wheat exports reached 1.2 million mt and took the total for the marketing year to 8.9 million mt, already 4% higher compared to the same period of 2020. In addition, around 2 million mt of wheat is still under loading or nominated in Ukrainian ports, according to available lineup data.
- Barley exports increased 33% during the week to 348,000 mt, pushing the total exported amount to 3.8 million mt, 31% higher versus the same period last year.
- Corn exports were also up during the period, but the volumes leaving remained very small - 36,000 mt - with the new total now standing at 1.4 million mt. The is still double the volume exported by the same point of last year. Corn harvest is progressing very slow across Ukraine with only 1.87 million mt, or 7% of the planted area now in the bins. That came amid rainy weather and farmers’ preference for picking soybeans and sunflowers first, as the quality can suffer faster compared to corn.
- Meanwhile, more corn vessels have started to appear in the line up, with currently at least three vessels nominated for loading some 153,000 mt, including a 60,000 mt cargo to China.
Oct 01 - Market Briefing: Grains and Feed (IHSmarkit)
- Slashed durum wheat supply in North America reshapes global trade.
- High freight rates slow Pakistani rice exports.
- Thai rice export prices of all grades remained unchanged w/w.
Production
The shortage of durum wheat in Canada and the US, has restructured global trade to the benefit of Australia, the EU and Mexico, IHS Markit reports. Australian’s durum wheat has gained momentum among global buyers, particularly the EU. According to data from the EU Commission, the EU increased its share in Australian durum wheat imports from 0% to 23.1% in the first 12 weeks of 2021-22 (July1-September 19), an equivalent of 65,000 tonnes. Likewise, the EU raised shipments to Turkey from 5 tonnes to 65,000 tonnes in the first 12 weeks of 2021-22, increasing its share from 0% to 63.4%. Turkey sources nearly half of its imported durum wheat from Canada. Meanwhile, Algeria may raise import volumes from Mexico to mitigate losses from Canada.
Demand
USDA forecasts Mexico’s corn imports at 17 million tonnes in 2021/22, up 3% y/y. However, this figure might be revised in the future as the Mexican government has expressed its wish to reduce the country’s use of genetically modified grains and boost its local crop, to reduce food reliance on foreign markets, namely the US.
Trade
- USDA reported that high freight costs and containers shortage have contributed to the current slower pace of Pakistan’s rice exports. The country exported 2.9 million tonnes of rice in the first nine months of 2020/21 (November - July), a sharp decline of 8% y/y. The drop was significant in May (down 49% y/y to 180,134 tonnes), and concerned particularly basmati rice, due to the competitive Indian basmati prices in the international market.
-Forecasts for French soft wheat exports to the EU have been revised upwards to more than 8 million tonnes for 2021/22, up 0.7 million tonnes compared to last July, and up 1.9 million tonnes compared to 2020/21, according to data from France Agrimer. Demand is particularly high from the Benelux and the Iberian Peninsula. In addition to a higher production, the sharp rise in ocean freight rates will prompt EU markets to favor geographic proximity rather than remote markets.
Prices
Thai rice export prices of all grades remained steady in the week ending September 21, despite the weakening of the Thai baht to THB33.25/USD1.00 from the previous week’s exchange rate of THB32.73/USD1.00, USDA reported. Thailand’s benchmark 5% broken price remained at USD383/tonne.
Oct 01 - Market Briefing: Oilseeds (IHSmarkit)
- Russia’s crude sunflower oil output down 19% y/y to 3.2 million tonnes.
- China’s energy crisis hinders soybean crushing operations.
- Australia could capitalize on the global rapeseed crunch.
Production
- Russia’s production of crude sunflower oil fell by 19% to 3.2 million tonnes in January-August 2021, compared to the same period last year, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) reported.
- US soybean harvest rose by 10% point to 16% in the week ending September 26 , still 2% point lower y/y, while soybean rated as ‘good-to-excellent’ remained at 58%, according to the latest Crop Progress report.
- China has recently implemented power rationing as coal supplies have started to shrink. As a result, several Chinese soybean crushing plants in multiple provinces were required to reduce or stop their operations, amid increasing demand.
Demand
The state-run General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) bought 12,000 tonnes of sunflower oil in an international tender on Wednesday 22, according to Reuters. Traders estimated the purchase at USD1,288/tonne on a cost & freight (c&f) basis, with shipments expected to arrive between December 1-15. In its last tender, on September 2, GASC purchased 19,000 tonnes of sunflower oil at USD1,240/ tonne c&f, and 10,000 tonnes of soybean oil at USD1,310/ tonne c&f for arrival between October 20 - November 5.
Trade
Foreign markets could resort to Australia to fill some of the voids left by the shortage of rapeseed in Canada. Australia should record a bumper crop, up 74% to 4 million tonnes, resulting in significant export volumes, up 97% y/y to 3 million tonnes, according to IHS Markit’s data. Higher availabilities means Australia will likely increase shipments towards the EU, at a time when the latter is cruelly lacking of rapeseed to meet domestic crush demand.
Prices
- Soybean futures closed higher Wednesday (September 29) supported by a rise in corn futures. November soybeans were up 7 cents to settle at USD12.84 per bushel. In addition, more US Gulf terminals were reopened after the disruption from Hurricane Ida.
- Uncertainties on China’s demand put pressure on Brazilian soy values. Between September 17-24, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa – Paranaguá, and CEPEA/ESALQ - Paraná soy indicators fell by 0.97% and 0.9%, averaging BRL173.73/60-kilo bags and BRL170.06/60-kilo bags, respectively.
- Soybean and soymeal export premiums continued to rise in Brazil, boosted by robust foreign demand, especially from China, according to the Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics).
Oct 01 - Market Briefing: Dairy (IHSmarkit)
- Zimbabwe’s milk production up 11% y/y
- Fonterra to focus on production of New Zealand milk
- China imported 33% more liquid milk from Poland
Production
Zimbabwe's milk production increased 11% y/y to 7.1 million liters in August, compared with 6.2 million liters reported in the same month in 2020, as the government’s efforts to rebuild the smallholder dairy sector and private sector heifer import schemes begin to pay off. However, total to-date milk output was flat at 50.62 million liters.
Demand
- Fonterra’s push for “New Zealand first” has continued dominating the co-op’s strategy, as it is considering a review in ownership of its Australian and Chilean operations. From the sales of these two assets, Fonterra expects financials returns of around NZ$1 billion.
- Meanwhile, US condensed skim milk markets currently have a stable undertone; volumes are available for the near term and contracts are steady. Cream demand is mixed, and availability is lighter in the East but varied throughout the week in the Midwest. Western cream-based manufacturers have been receiving adequate cream supplies for current production needs. Widespread hauling challenges persist and have led to delivery inconsistencies, including canceled and late cream loads.
Trade
China’s appetite for Polish dairy products grew in January-July, as supplies increased 33%, led by liquid milk. China accounted for 33% of Poland’s total extra-EU exports. In addition, Polish supplies of liquid milk grew five times to South Africa and two and a half times to Korea. The Dominican Republic received 10,100 tonnes of Polish liquid milk products, which marked Poland’s first exports to the market after it was granted access.
Prices
- Whey powder prices have taken a breather in Germany – unchanged at EUR980 per tonne – and have actually fallen slightly in the Netherlands, to the same price level of EUR980 per tonne. In France, by contrast, whey powder is up by almost 6% week-on-week, at 991 per tonne – a value which aligns much more closely than before with its regional neighbours.
- In the case of whole milk powder, the biggest price jump is in the Netherlands – up 2.3% to EUR3,340 per tonne – while the German price is 1.2% higher, at EUR3,425 per tonne. The AgriMer price for WMP is unchanged, at EUR3,227 per tonne.
Oct 01 - China gorges on American grain-fed beef amid shrinking supplies from Down Under
As Australian beef exports to China wither amid diplomatic tensions, demand there for U.S. grain-fed beef has soared, fuelled by the appetites of a growing Chinese middle class. Hotpot restaurants, Japanese barbecue chains and steakhouses, all expanding in the world's No. 2 economy, are swapping out Australian beef for U.S. meat.
Oct 01 - England's wheat area rises by 31% on last year - ministry
The wheat area in England for this year's harvest rose 31% from 2020 to 1.66 million hectares, Britain's farm ministry said on Thursday, issuing the results of its June survey. The increase was slightly bigger than the provisional 28% rise seen by the ministry last month.
Sep 30 - Wheat crop production down 10% in 2021, below estimates (AgriCensus)
- The USDA’s Thursday NASS annual small grains report listed all wheat total production at 1.65 billion bushels in 2021, down 10% from 2020’s 1.83 billion bushels. The figure fell slightly short of average industry estimates of 1.68 billion bushels and was around 3% below NASS’ August projections of 1.7 billion bushels.
- Despite increases in area planted (46.7 million acres) and harvested (37.2 million acres), reductions in total yield (44.3 bpa) were noted compared to last year. Last year’s figures were listed at 44.5 million acres planted, 36.8 million acres harvested, and 49.7 bushels per acre.
By type, winter wheat production was the highest with 1.28 billion bushels reported, 3% below average industry predictions but up 9% from 2020.
- In second place was other spring wheat with 331 million bushels, down 44% from 2020 but slightly higher than average estimates that landed around 327 million bushels.
- Durum wheat produced 37.3 million bushels, around 3 million bushels above the average industry estimate but down 46% year-over-year.
Sep 30 - EU 2021/22 soft wheat exports at 6.95 million tonnes by Sept. 26
Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2021/22 season that started in July had reached 6.95 million tonnes by Sept. 26, data published by the European Commission showed on Wednesday. That was up from 5.09 million tonnes by the same week in 2020/21, the data showed.
Sep 30 - China's farmers face more pain as power crunch drives up feed costs
China's huge livestock sector is facing a hike in feed costs, just as they grapple with crippling farming losses, said analysts and industry participants, after the country's worst power outages in years hit production of key ingredients. Crushers turn soybeans into soymeal, a critical protein in feed for pigs, chickens and fish.
Sep 30 - Market readies for hard-to-predict U.S. grain stocks data - Braun
In a break with recent trends, government projections for U.S. corn and soybeans earlier this month landed relatively close to market expectations. But the September supply report due on Thursday has not built a calm reputation over the years. U.S. quarterly grain stocks, set to be published at noon EDT (1600 GMT) on Thursday, will essentially reveal the ending stocks for the 2020-21 U.S. corn and soybean marketing years that concluded on Aug. 31. The trade trusts that the U.S. Department of Agriculture mostly captured these numbers earlier this month.
Sep 29 - Renewable Energy Group to shut Houston biodiesel plant: company
Renewable Energy Group will close its 35 million gal/year biodiesel plant located in Seabrook, Texas, due, in part, to its inability to process multiple feedstocks, the company said in a Sept. 29 statement.
Sep 29 - CHS Inc restarts Myrtle Grove, Louisiana, grain export terminal after Ida
A hurricane-damaged grain export terminal in Myrtle Grove, Louisiana, owned by farm cooperative CHS Inc has resumed operations following a month-long closure after Hurricane Ida flooded the facility and knocked out power, the company said on Tuesday. A vessel is docked at the terminal and the facility is operating on generator power, but CHS expects utility power to be restored by the end of the week, a CHS spokesperson said.
Sep 29 - Argentina's 2020/21 soybean sales hit 30.5 mln tonnes - ministry
Argentine farmers have sold 30.5 million tonnes of soybeans from the 2020/21 crop, after registering sales over a seven-day period of 495,300 tonnes, the Ministry of Agriculture said on Tuesday. The sales volume of one of Argentina's main crops lagged that of the previous season, when by the equivalent point some 32.2 million tonnes of the oilseed had been traded, the ministry said in a report with data through Sept. 22.
China's corn prices are likely to fall in 2021/22 on good supplies of feed grains in the new year and expectations of a bumper harvest from the new corn crop, an analyst from a government institute said on Tuesday. "Corn prices are probably going to hit bottom levels between end of December and Chinese Spring Festival, the expected peak period when farmers sell the new crop (this year)," said Li Xigui, analyst from the China National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC), a government think tank.
Sep 29 - Argentina to restart beef exports to China after caps lifted
Argentina on Tuesday said it would once again allow cattle farmers to freely export beef to China, lifting a cap imposed earlier this year that had stoked tensions with the agricultural sector. The government had capped beef exports at 50% of the normal volumes to tamp down fast-rising prices, leading to protests and threats by farmers to halt local trading in cattle and also grains.
Sep 28 - Brazil’s corn imports on the rise as 1.2m mt landed: IMEA
- Brazilian corn imports reached 1.2 million mt from January to August and even Mato Grosso, the largest corn producer, imported small volumes for the first time in five years, the state’s agriculture institute IMEA said in its weekly bulletin.
“The Brazilian corn crop loss coupled with the exemption of import taxes have been underpinning the inflow of the grain into the country,” the institute said.
- The 1.2 million mt imported in the first eight months of the year is the highest level registered for the period in the customs office’s time series.
According to IMEA, Mato Grosso imported eight tons of corn since the beginning of the year, which is a negligible volume but signals how tight the domestic is following the massive second crop loss in the country. Imports came as “import prices were 2.8% below Mato Grosso’s prices during the period,” IMEA added.
Brazil usually imports more corn in the last four months of the year than it does in the previous eight.
“Hence…, the country is on track for an all-time record of corn imports this year, potentially reaching 2.0 million mt from September to December,” IMEA said.
Sep 28 - U.S. soy exports hit 6-month high as Gulf loadings rise after Ida; lag year ago pace
U.S. soybean exports jumped last week to a six-month peak, while corn shipments were the highest in a month as Louisiana Gulf Coast terminals steadily ramped up operations disrupted nearly a month ago by Hurricane Ida, preliminary data showed on Monday. The export pace remained well below normal for this time of year as some terminals remain shuttered or running at reduced capacity after the storm flooded and damaged some facilities and wrecked the region's power grid.
Sep 28 - Brazil's Abitrigo says millers won't buy GMO wheat from Argentina
Brazilian domestic flour millers are threatening to stop buying wheat from Argentina if Brazil commercially approves GMO wheat imports from the neighboring country, Rubens Barbosa, head of the Brazilian Wheat Industry Association (Abitrigo), said on Monday. Local millers are against processing GMO wheat coming from Argentina or anywhere, according to Abitrigo, and that sentiment is shared by groups representing bakers and other companies that use wheat to make products like bread and biscuits.
Sep 28 - Indian farmers stage nationwide protests against reforms
Indian farmers opposed to reforms they say threaten their livelihoods renewed their push against the changes with nationwide protests on Monday, a year after laws on the liberalisation of the sector were introduced. For 10 months, tens of thousands of farmers have camped out on major highways around the capital, New Delhi, to oppose the laws in the longest-running growers' protest against Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government.
Sep 27 - Ethiopia tenders for 200,000 mt milling wheat with UNOPS
- The Ethiopian government, supported by an agency of the United Nations, has issued a fresh tender to secure around 200,000 mt of milling wheat, news agency Reuters reported Monday. The UN's office for project services (UNOPS) is looking for offers for four lots each 50,000 mt of wheat, packed in bags and supplied into several destinations in Ethiopia. The wheat is to be delivered within 90 days after the contract’s signing and the tender is set to close on October 8.
- The Ethiopian government was last in the market on August 3, when it passed on a 400,000 mt milling wheat tender.
- Ethiopia is expected to increase wheat production by 1.6% to 5.2 million mt in the 2021/22 marketing year as favorable weather combines with increased mechanisation and improved irrigation in a move that is expected to boost yields. Thus wheat imports are expected to remain stable at 1.5 million mt, with around a quarter of that likely to continue to be donated as aid.
Sep 27 - Sudan receives fourth shipment of U.S. wheat aid - agency
Sudan has received a new shipment of wheat aid from the United States, state news agency SUNA said on Saturday, the fourth of its kind this year. The shipment of 50,000 tonnes arrived to Port Sudan and it is being unloaded currently in the port, it added.
Sep 27 - China state grain stockpiler sells 10,507 T of imported corn in Friday auction
China's state grain stockpiler said it had sold 10,507 tonnes of imported GMO corn, or 9% of the total offer, in an auction on Friday. It received no bids for 11,572 tonnes of non-GMO corn imported from Ukraine that was also for sale.
Sep 27 - Palm prices seen firm until Feb, but could ease from March – analyst Ministry
Malaysian crude palm oil prices, which have hovered near last month's record highs, will stay firm until February, but start to ease from March, on rising output in the top two producer nations, leading industry analyst Dorab Mistry said on Saturday. Benchmark crude palm prices have jumped nearly a quarter this year, rallying for a third consecutive year as a pandemic-induced labour shortage crimped output in Malaysia, the world's second largest producer.
Sep 24 - Market Briefing: Dairy (IHSmarkit)
- US milk and cheese production up in July, on higher-than-expected mozzarella output
- Australian plant-based beverage sales up 8% in the past 12 months
- Brazil and Chile increase international dairy purchases in July
Production
- US milk production increased 2% y/y in July, compared to a slowdown of 3% in June and 5% growth in May. Total cheese production was up 4% y/y, 13 million pounds above expectations mainly due to higher mozzarella production. Butter production in July totaled 147 million pounds, down 9% m/m and down 1% y/y.
- China’s milk production in the first half of the year grew 8% y/y in volume, led by the ongoing national herd expansion. The country’s rising domestic supply was put under further pressure by a 30% (in liquid milk equivalent) y/y increase in dairy imports in January-July, with national product stocks reportedly high.
- Milk production in New Zealand was up 7% y/y in July, both in tonnes and in kilograms of milk solids. Fonterra’s production in the 12 months to July was up 3% y/y. Collections in the country were up 2% y/y to 19.5 million kgMS, bringing the total season-to-date (June-July) collections up 1% y/y to 34.1 million kgMS.
Demand
- US cheese demand continues to be strong, outpacing both 2019 and 2020, despite last year’s government purchases. Domestic cheese sales for June were up 1% y/y, and demand for May was revised up 4%. Over the past year, cheese demand has been offsetting production, but the rising stocks show production is slightly outpacing demand. Domestic butter demand has been lower than in 2020 since March, with June domestic sales down 6% y/y, and May revised down to a decline of 11% y/y.
- Plant-based beverage sales in Australian retail rose 8% in the 12 months to 8 August, with the oat drink category alone up 105% y/y. While the growth is significant, plant-based is still a niche business, as conventional milk accounted for 92% of total sales in the period.
Trade
- In Latin America, Chilean and Brazilian imports of dairy continued growing in July. Chilean total dairy imports were up 30% y/y in volume and 37% y/y in value in the seven months to July, to 88,000 tonnes and $295 million, led by cheese intakes, which rose 49% y/y to 43,700 tonnes and accounted for 50% of imports. Brazil increased dairy imports in July by 9% m/m, to 9,700 tonnes, as low domestic supply favored buying dairy from abroad. Milk powders have continued to account for the bulk of the month’s purchases but were down 7% m/m and dropped 37% y/y, as consumers’ falling purchasing power this year continues impacting y/y purchases.
- Algeria imported $630.5 million of dairy products in the first half of 2021, with milk powders accounting for 89% of total revenue. Imports reached 99,800 tonnes, a 20% y/y dip, which IHS Markit suggests occurred due to significantly higher international prices, especially in New Zealand, which pushed import volumes down by 37% y/y.
Prices
- All commodity prices increased at the 7 September GDT event. Ahead of the auction, SMP’s price growth expectations were set at 5%, but the price rose even further, by 7% to $3,274 per tonne. After six consecutive auctions of decline, the WMP price grew 4% to $3,691/tonne, which is the largest price increase since the event in early March. These results have given impetus for prices to rise in the EU and the US.
- Outcomes of the 21 September GDT auction have showed varied results, as dairy fats weakened and powders continued rising, albeit at a slower pace. After the first event of September, only SMP showed significant growth on the NZX exchange, while butter and AMF futures were selling well below GDT values, which was a precursor for the same prices to decline at the next GDT event. The butter average has expectedly moved down, by 2% to USD4,857 per tonne, but WMP soared by 2% to USD3,777 per tonne, and SMP saw a modest 1% rise to USD3,302 per tonne.
Sep 24 - Market Briefing: Meat and Livestock (IHSmarkit)
- CO2 crisis adds to pressure on UK meat producers.
- Beef consumption rising globally as COVID restrictions are eased.
- Brazilian beef export prospects hang on Beijing’s response to BSE cases.
- Pork prices tumble in Europe, but egg markets strengthen.
Production
UK meat producers came under pressure this month as a shortage of CO2 added to problems faced by slaughterhouses and packers. With more than 100,000 pigs already backed up on farms due to labor shortages, the government stepped in with a short-term fix. However, processors were warned to prepare for a hike in CO2 prices, which will add to inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, China said its pig breeding herd is now 10% bigger than it was before the country was first hit by African Swine Fever (ASF) in 2018. With prices at rock-bottom levels, the government lowered its target for sow numbers and said farmers will be urged to liquidate some of their animals if the herd gets too large.
Demand
Global beef consumption in 2021 is projected to climb 2.2% y/y, as the world continues efforts to overcome the negative effects of COVID-19 and return to a period of demand growth. US beef consumption in 2021 is to increase by 2% y/y to 12.96 million tonnes, amid efforts to support the current consumer preference for beef. For China, domestic beef demand is anticipated to grow by 3.4% y/y in 2021 to 9.57 million tonnes. Although prices in Brazil have been pushed up by firm export demand, Brazilian consumers are projected to increase beef consumption by 3% y/y in 2021 to 7.84 million tonnes. In contrast, EU consumption of beef is expected to fall by 0.8% y/y in 2021 to 7.69 million tonnes.
Trade
Brazil was this month forced to suspend beef exports to China following two cases of ‘atypical’ bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). IHS Markit had expected Brazilian beef exports in 2021 to increase 8.5% y/y to 2.75 million tonnes, but this forecast may have to be lowered if the Chinese suspension persists. BSE also resurfaced in the UK, setting back efforts to access new export markets for beef. The US was offered a boost this month as 17 more US pork, beef and poultry establishments were cleared to supply the Chinese market. From January to July, US beef exports to China reached almost 100,000 tonnes, up by about 1,000% y/y. The suspension on Brazilian beef may give further impetus to US exports – particularly as Australia and Argentina are currently limited in their capacity to supply the Chinese market.
Prices
Pig prices fell further in China and Europe this month, with no immediate prospect of any sustained recovery in either market. Average pig prices in China were down 14% m/m at CNY13.86 per kg (USD2.14/kg). Wholesale pork prices in China slipped to CNY18.48 per kg and now stand more than 60% down on levels seen in mid-January. Pig prices in the EU have been on a similar downward trajectory, with the EU average dropping to EUR1.37 per kg in the third week of September. Prices have now dropped by 17% since the end of May. In contrast, EU egg prices have been rising strongly in recent weeks, with producers facing rising demand both from the retail and processing sectors. The EU average price for Class A eggs in the third week of September was EUR134 per kg. This marks an increase of 11% since the end of July.
Sep 24 - Market Briefing: Oilseeds (IHSmarkit)
- US soy crush higher in August at 159 million bushels
- Malaysia’s export duty rate on CPO remains at 8% for October
- Indian oilmeal exports down 14% m/m to 164,831 tonnes in August
Production
- The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported US soybean production at 4.4 billion bushels for 2021/22, up 35 million bushels on a previous estimate, as a higher yield forecast of 50.6 bushels per acre more than offset lower harvested area, down 0.3 million bushels from the August forecast of 86.7 million acres.
- EU sunflower meal harvest is expected to rise by 5% y/y to 5 million tonnes in 2021/22, reflecting higher crush, up 5% y/y to 9 million tonnes. Support should be provided by higher output in Romania, France, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Germany, while Spain is expected to record a decline.
- Brazil’s soybean planting has started at a slow pace, around 0.1% of the total area, through to the end of last week, due to farmers’ concerns over heat and insufficient humidity, AgRural stated. Most farmers will tend to wait for an improvement in the forecast to increase sowing afterwards. This is to avoid replanting soy, which will generate higher production costs.
Demand
- China imported a record 1.08 million tonnes of Ukrainian sunflower oil in 2020/21, up 10% y/y, according to APK-Inform. As a result, the country increased its share in Ukrainian sun oil exports from 15% in 2019/20 to 20% in 2020/21.
- Global soybean ending stocks were raised by 2.7 million tonnes to 99 million tonnes, mainly on higher beginning stocks for China and higher US ending stocks.
- The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported crush of 159 million bushels in August, higher-than-expected volumes, and above the 154.2-million-bushel average of industry estimates.
- US soybean crush was reduced again by 25 million bushels to 2.2 billion bushels for 2021/22, reflecting a lower forecast for domestic soybean meal disappearance, according to the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB).
Trade
- As per cargo surveyor data from Amspec, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 50.5% m/m to 554,875 tonnes between September 1-10 compared to August 1-10. Similarly, cargo surveyor data from ITS reported Malaysian shipments up 57% m/m to 572,345 tonnes in the same period. Current data also highlighted increased exports to China and India, while lower volumes were shipped to the EU.
- Indian oilmeal exports dropped in August, down 14% m/m to 164,831 tonnes, and by 4% y/y, SEA reported. Conversely, the overall exports of oilmeals between April - August 2021 rose by 8% y/y to 1.1 million tonnes.
Prices
- Malaysia’s export duty rate on CPO remains at 8% for October, according to data from the Royal Malaysian Customs Department. This is owed to its CPO reference price being raised by RM216.9 to RM4,472.4/tonne.
- The US soybean price is estimated at USD13.70/bushel in 2021/22, unchanged m/m, while the price for soybean meal is estimated at USD385 per short ton, down 10 dollars, according to USDA. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound.
Sep 24 - Market Briefing: Grains and Feed (IHSmarkit)
- Logistical hindrances to continue affecting Thai rice exports
- Brazil resorts to Argentina for corn over crop failure
- India is projected to ship 3.5 million tonnes of corn in 2020/21
Production
- Prospects for US wheat production are unchanged at 1.69 billion bushels, while corn output is estimated at 15 billion bushels in 2021/22, up 246 million bushels from the August projection, on increased harvested area and yields, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
- EU barley supply is projected to decline by 2% y/y to 61 million tonnes in 2021/22, due to reduced production, beginning stocks and imports, USDA reported.
- South African domestic total corn output is now estimated at 16.31 million tonnes in 2020/21, against a previous forecast of 16.43 million tonnes, according to the South African Crop Estimates Committee (CEC).The decline is driven by losses in white corn from 8.93 million tonnes to 8.76 million tonnes.
- Morocco’s wheat output is forecast to recover by 195% y/y to 7.54 million tonnes in 2021/22, USDA reported. This includes 5.06 million tonnes of common wheat, and 2.48 million tonnes of durum wheat.
Demand
- Japanese corn imports are forecast to recover in 2021/22, up 1% y/y to 15.70 million tonnes, FAS Tokyo reported. The US, Brazil and South Africa should remain the key suppliers.
- USDA projects Thai rice exports at 6.5 million tonnes in 2021/22, up 12% y/y, but a downward revision compared to a previous estimate of 8.7 million tonnes. Shipments will continue to be hindered by containers shortage and higher transportation costs.
- Brazil has purchased 1.3 million tonnes of Argentine corn for poultry and pork feed so far this season, according to the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex). Support was provided by the expected failure of Brazil’s 2020/21 corn crop, combined with Argentina’s attractive corn prices.
Trade
- Russia has extended Western food embargo until the end of 2022, following the West’s prolongation of sanctions.
- Philippines’ rice imports should rise by 200,000 tonnes to 2.2 million tonnes, an increase of 10% y/y, due to expected improving economic conditions, and a boost in Sanitary and Phytosanitary Import Clearance (SPSIC) issuances, USDA reported.
- India is projected to ship 3.5 million tonnes of corn in 2020/21, with Vietnam and Malaysia making up over 1.1 million tonnes combined. India is capitalizing on increased corn prices in Brazil, where the harvest has been affected by drought, and in the US, where stocks levels are shrinking, USDA stated.
Prices
- The Russian Ministry of Agriculture will cut wheat export duty to USD50.9/tonne on reduced indicative price from USD275/tonne to USD272.8/tonne, from September 22-28. Additionally, the export duty on barley will decline to USD31/tonne due to a reduced reference price from USD232.3/tonne to USD229.4/tonne. The tariff for corn will also fall to USD47.8/tonne as indicative prices should drop to USD253.4/tonne against USD255/tonne last week.
- Thailand’s benchmark 5% broken white rice and parboiled 100% rice prices fell by 2% w/w to USD383/tonne and USD388/tonnes respectively, in the week ending September 14. The price decline was exacerbated by slow trading activities, particularly with African and Asian countries, due to container shortages.
Sep 24 - Pakistan said to buy 575,000 tonnes of wheat in tender - trade
A government agency in Pakistan is believed to have bought some 575,000 tonnes of wheat in an international tender to purchase 500,00 tonnes which closed this week, European traders said on Thursday. The Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) was believed to have purchased all the wheat at $383.50 c&f after several trading houses agreed to match the lowest price offered in the tender on Monday, traders said.
Sep 24 - Britain to resolve trucker shortage swiftly, minister says
British Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said the country's shortage of truck drivers shouldn't last long as the government had sped up the number of HGV tests available. "Many more tests are being made available now so we should see it smooth out fairly quickly," Shapps told Sky News on Friday, adding that the number of tests had been doubled.
Sep 24 - China steps up Australian wheat imports despite trade standoff
China is snapping up cargoes of Australian wheat despite a bitter trade standoff between the two countries, as crop downgrades elsewhere lead to a global shortfall in output. The buying spree comes as Australia, a key global food supplier, is expecting a second consecutive bumper harvest, while Northern Hemisphere producers have been hit by adverse weather and drought.
Sep 24 - IGC raises forecast for 2021/22 global corn crop
The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday raised its forecast for the 2021/22 global corn crop, predominately reflecting improved outlooks for the United States and Ukraine. In its monthly update, the inter-governmental body increased its 2021/22 world corn (maize) crop outlook by 7 million tonnes to a record 1.209 billion tonnes.
Sep 23 - U.S. farmers face supply shortages, higher costs after Hurricane Ida
Troy Walker's phone will not stop ringing at his Kansas farm cooperative, with growers needing fertilizer for their wheat fields in the coming months. In Kentucky, corn and soybean farmer Caleb Ragland said shelves at his local farm supplier are often bare of weed killer glyphosate and other crop chemicals. He expects the situation could get worse.
Sep 23 - Taiwan buys 49,580 tonnes wheat of U.S.-origin in tender
The Taiwan Flour Millers' Association purchased an estimated 49,580 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender which closed on Thursday, European traders said. The wheat was bought in one consignment comprising various wheat types for shipment from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast between Nov. 6 and Nov. 20.
Sep 23 - Soaring gas prices ripple through heavy industry, supply chains
Global record high natural gas prices are pushing some energy-intensive companies to curtail production in a trend that is adding to disruptions to global supply chains in some sectors such as food and could result in higher costs being passed on to their customers. Some companies, including steel producers, fertiliser manufacturers and glass makers, have had to suspend or reduce production in Europe and Asia as a result of spiking energy prices.
Sep 23 - Biden administration mulls big cuts to biofuel mandates in win for oil industry - document
The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden is considering big cuts to the nation's biofuel blending requirements, according to a document seen by Reuters, a move triggered by a broad decline in gasoline demand during the coronavirus pandemic. If adopted, the proposal would be a win for the oil industry, most notably PBF Energy and CVR Energy, which argues biofuel blending is costly.
Sep 23 - India's palm campaign has hard row to hoe with water, seedlings scarce
Tractor convoys trundled thousands of oil palm seedlings to new homes on farms across southeastern India this month, as the world's top importer of edible oil rolls out an ambitious $1.5-billion plan to boost output. Record prices of palm, and new government promises of payouts even if Indian prices slump, are driving the effort, which aims to lift domestic output sharply within a decade from a tiny level now.
Sep 22 - Sovecon raises forecast for Russia's 2021 wheat crop
Russian agriculture consultancy Sovecon said on Tuesday it had raised its forecast for Russia's 2021 wheat crop by 200,000 tonnes to 75.6 million tonnes due to good yields in Siberia. Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, supplying it mainly to Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
Sep 21 - Sunflower prices in Bulgaria rise by 7% in a week (Agricensus)
- Bulgaria's sunflower seed prices have jumped 7% over the last few days as a late-running harvest leads to a lack of offers from local farmers while sunflower seed crushers have been forced to cover their demand, trade sources told Agricensus Tuesday.
- The low sunflower supply has prompted crushers to raise their prices throughout the past week, with the market starting at $580-585/mt DAP on September 13 and hitting $620/mt DAP by September 17, Agricensus data shows.
The increases could be enough to halt crushers, trade sources said.
“Despite the rise in prices all last week, we see a low supply from farmers, which makes the market illiquid and unpredictable. These prices are already giving negative margins and we see several crushers stopping sunflower purchases for today,” a source at brokerage AgriVia told Agricensus.
“Each day prices go up as crushers and dehullers need the cargo. The percent of farmer sales is too low, perhaps only 25%, and they feel they can get more money so they sit and wait,” a second broker added.
- The increase in prices and decrease in sales has occurred despite an expected increase in the region's sunflower harvest, with Bulgaria on course to increase production by 10% to 1.92 million mt and Romania by 38% to 3.36 million mt, according to data from the European Commission. However, local market sources expect the sunflower harvest in Bulgaria to reach 2.1-2.2 million mt but to only reach 3 million mt in Romania.
- Sunflower harvesting in Bulgaria, according to local market sources, has been completed on less than 75% of the area and still lags behind harvests in previous years, with sunflower yields varying greatly from region to region.
“According to our estimates, yields are pretty different from area to area, but overall the average yield seems to be around or slightly above the 2.5 mt/ha benchmark, which makes us optimistic today,” brokerage AgriVia said.
The lack of sunflower offers from local sellers forces the market to look towards imported, cheaper sunflower.
“Today sunflower from Moldova and Romania is $10-20/mt cheaper,” the source at Agrivia said.
“We can’t easily foresee what the import will be until the end of the season, as it depends on the prices in both countries and the availability of sunflower seeds in Romania, but we would not be surprised to see a total import in Bulgaria from Romania and Moldova of 500,000-550,000 mt for the whole season,” the source added.
Sep 21 - China's August soybean imports from Brazil rise 10.9% y/y
China's August soybean imports from Brazil rose 10.9% from the same month last year, customs data showed on Monday, while shipments from the United States fell sharply. China, the world's top importer of soybeans, brought in 9.04 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil in August, up from 8.15 million tonnes a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.
Sep 21 - Pakistan gets offers in 500,000 tonne wheat tender - trade
The lowest price offered in the tender from Pakistan to purchase 500,000 tonnes of wheat which closed on Monday was believed to be $383.50 a tonne c&f, European traders said in initial assessments. The state agency Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) is still considering the offers and no purchase has been reported, traders said.
Sep 21 - U.S. grain exports rise as Gulf terminals slowly recover from Ida
U.S. grain exports increased last week as shippers along the Louisiana Gulf Coast recovered from flooding and widespread power outages caused by Hurricane Ida's Aug. 29 landfall, but volumes were much lower than normal, preliminary data showed on Monday. Just seven export vessels were loaded with grain and soybeans at Louisiana Gulf Coast terminals in the week ended Sept. 16, down from 23 vessels in the same week last year, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data showed.
Sep 21 - UK meat industry warns of imminent supply threat from CO2 crisis
Britain's meat processors will start running out of carbon dioxide (CO2) within five days, forcing them to halt production and impacting supplies to retailers, the industry's lobby group warned on Monday. A jump in gas prices has forced several domestic energy suppliers out of business and has shut fertiliser plants that also make CO2 as a by-product of their production process.
Sep 20 - China’s August corn imports rise 221%, Brazil soybean up 10.9%
- China’s monthly corn imports in August 2021 jumped by 221.2% versus the same point of last year, as demand from the feed sector supported large purchases, data from the country's customs has shown.
The country brought in 3.23 million mt of corn in August, the second-highest level on record and up by 12.9% compared to the prior month, data from China’s General Administration of Customs (CGAC) showed on Saturday.
It lifted total corn imports from January to August 2021 to 21.4 million mt, up by 283.7% from the levels at the same period of 2020.
- The surge came as demand from the feed industry was boosted as the country rebuilds its pig herd after the deadly African swine fever (ASF) outbreak.
Animal feed production in August was up by 6.5% month-on-month and 14.9% on the year to reach 27.23 million mt, data from China Feed Industry Association (CFIA) has shown.
Soybeans
- At the same time, data from CGAC released Monday showed that China’s soybean imports from Brazil in August 2021 jumped by 10.9% from the same month in 2020, while shipments from the US fell sharply by 89.4% year-on-year.
- The world’s largest soybean importer brought in 9.04 million mt of the oilseed from Brazil in August, up from the 7.88 million mt recorded in July and the 8.15 million mt a year earlier.
- By contrast, August soybean imports from the US fell steeply to 17,575 mt, down by 58% from the prior month and lower than the 166,370 mt recorded in August 2020.
- Overall, China imported 9.49 million mt of soybean in August, slightly falling from 9.6 million mt registered a year ago.
- For other agricultural commodity imports, China brought 710,000 mt of wheat in August, marginally up by 1.1% from the same month last year, but lower by 19.3% from the prior month. It pushed the total from wheat imports to China between January to August 2021 to 6.96 million mt, up 39.7% from the same point in 2020.
- Barley imports dropped for a fourth consecutive month to 690,000 mt, down by 10.4% from July, but still higher by 54.9% from the level recorded in the same month of 2020. That took total barley imports volume this year so far to 7.11 million mt, a jump of over 115.4% on the year.
- Sorghum imports also fell by 27% from the previous month to 810,000 mt, but were still 27% higher from a year earlier. The total volume of sorghum brought in from January to August in 2021 reached 6.71 million mt, up by nearly 128.7% from last year’s 2.93 million mt.
- Finally, China also imported 880,000 mt of vegetable oil in August, down by 18.6% from the same month last year. Within that total, imports of soyoil came in at 130,000 mt, palm oil at 470,000 mt and rapeseed oil at 130,000 mt.
Sep 20 - Russia restricts Brazil beef imports after mad cow cases
Russia has banned certain cattle and beef imports from two Brazilian states after confirmation of atypical cases of mad cow disease in the South American country, according to the Russian agriculture regulator, in the latest blow to the meatpacking industry. The restrictions went into effect on Wednesday, Russia's Rosselkhoznadzor regulator said on its website. Brazilian newspaper Valor Econômico first reported the restrictions on Friday.
Sep 20 - French maize crop conditions stable as harvest looms
Most French grain maize crops remained in good condition last week as farmers prepared to harvest this year's crop, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed on Friday. For the week to Sept. 13 the proportion of crops rated good to excellent was 89%, unchanged from the previous week, FranceAgriMer's cereal crop data showed.
Sep 17 - Market Briefing: Oilseeds (IHSmarkit)
- US soybean production at 4.4 billion bushels in 2021/22
- NOPA reported soybean crush of 159 million bushels in August
- Soybeans futures rose on strong gains in soybean oil
Production
- The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported US soybean production at 4.4 billion bushels for 2021/22, up 35 million bushels on a previous estimate, as a higher yield forecast of 50.6 bushels per acre more than offset lower harvested area, down 0.3 million bushels from the August forecast of 86.7 million acres.
- US soybean rated as ‘good-to-excellent’ remained unchanged at 57% in the week ending September 12, according to the latest Crop Progress report.
Demand
- Global soybean ending stocks were raised by 2.7 million tonnes to 99 million tonnes, mainly on higher beginning stocks for China and higher US ending stocks.
- The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported crush of 159 million bushels in August, higher-than-expected volumes, and above the 154.2-million-bushel average of industry estimates.
- US soybean crush was reduced again by 25 million bushels to 2.2 billion bushels for 2021/22, reflecting a lower forecast for domestic soybean meal disappearance, according to the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB).
Trade
As per cargo surveyor data from Amspec, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 50.5% m/m to 554,875 tonnes between September 1-10 compared to August 1-10. Similarly, cargo surveyor data from ITS reported Malaysian shipments up 57% m/m to 572,345 tonnes in the same period. Current data also highlighted increased exports to China and India, while lower volumes were shipped to the EU.
Prices
- The average US soybean price is forecast at USD12.90 per bushel in 2021/22, down 80 cents from a previous forecast, while the soybean meal price is predicted at USD360 per short ton, down USD25.00, and the soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65 cents per pound.
-Soybean futures closed higher on Wednesday (September 15). November futures closed up 12 cents to settle at USD12.94 1/2 per bushel, with soybean oil leading the gains on strong energy and vegetable oils markets. With stronger oil share, new-crop board crush margins recovered and are trading above 90 cents per bushel, indicating better incentive to crush US soybeans. Some support also came from August crush data from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA).
Sep 17 - Market Briefing: Grains and Feed (IHSmarkit)
- EU barley supply down 2% y/y to 61 million tonnes in 2021/22
- Russian wheat export duty rises to USD52.5/tonne from September 15-21
- Egypt forecast to import 900,000 tonnes of rice in 2021/22
Production
- US wheat production should remain unchanged at 1.69 billion bushels, while corn output is estimated at 15 billion bushels in 2021/22, up 246 million bushels from the August projection, on increased harvested area and yields, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
- EU barley supply is projected to decline by 2% y/y to 61 million tonnes in 2021/22, due to reduced production, beginning stocks and imports, USDA reported.
- UK ingredients specialist, Eurostar Commodities, expects a massive price hike for the 2021 durum wheat harvest, the result of a severe drought in Canada combined with excessive rainfall in Europe. Prospects for Canada’s 2021 output have been revised downwards by more than one-third from 5 million tonnes to only 3.4 million tonnes.
Demand
Bangladesh has recently raised its imports of wheat, driven by a growing population and a shift in dietary habits, according to the USDA’s FAS (Foreign Agricultural Service). Due to its competitive prices, India has emerged as the leading supplier with shipments totalling over 1.8 million tonnes in 2020/21, due to a higher output.
Trade
- Egypt is forecast to import 900,000 tonnes of rice in 2021/22 as rice crop is projected to be 1.1 million tonnes smaller than the previous harvest, and the lowest since 2018/19, according to USDA.
- EU barley exports are expected to decrease by 6% y/y to 7 million tonnes, as other markets, including Ukraine and the UK, will regain competitiveness in Asia, North Africa and Middle East markets.
- India is projected to ship 3.5 million tonnes of corn in 2020/21, with Vietnam and Malaysia making up over 1.1 million tonnes combined, as it capitalizes on increased corn prices in Brazil, where the harvest has been affected by drought, and in the US, where stocks levels are shrinking, USDA stated.
Prices
From September 15-21, the export duty on Russian wheat will rise to USD52.5/tonne, based on increased indicative price of USD275.0/tonne. Similarly, the export duty of barley is raised to USD33.1/tonne, with indicative price of USD232.3/tonne. Corn’s export duty will decline further to USD49.0/tonne.
Sep 17 - Market Briefing: Meat and Livestock (IHSmarkit)
- EU pigmeat production up 4% y/y in first half of 2021.
- Import demand firm in Philippines as pig herd shrinks by 18% y/y.
- South African chicken meat imports down 8% y/y, Europe loses out.
- Pig prices in Europe fall for 12th straight week.
Production
EU pigmeat production reached 11.8 million tonnes in the first half of 2021, up 4% y/y, thanks to a combination of increased slaughter levels and higher carcase weights. Figures for June show that production is now starting to stabilize having risen sharply earlier this year. Denmark, Italy and Poland all recorded noticeably lower slaughter in June but this was offset by a sharp rise in the Netherlands. Elsewhere, Brazilian pigmeat production reached 1.22 million tonnes in the second quarter, up 10% y/y but down 5% on Q1.
Demand
Meat import demand in the Philippines looks set to remain high for some time to come as new figures show the scale of pork sector losses to African Swine Fever (ASF). Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that the country’s swine inventory stood at 9.64 million head at the end of July – down 18% y/y.
Trade
South African poultry meat imports are expected to continue falling in 2022 as the country doubles down on efforts to limit purchases from the EU and UK. Chicken meat imports in the first seven months of this year amounted to 242,642 tonnes, down 8% y/y. Most European countries are currently subject to temporary import bans imposed after outbreaks of avian flu. Spain is consequently the only EU country to supply significant amounts of chicken meat to South Africa this year, upping shipments by 35% y/y to 35,871 tonnes. South Africa recently decided to raise antidumping duties on imports from the UK, Germany and Netherlands despite concerns raised by the European Commission. Elsewhere, Brazilian meat exports got off to a strong start in early September – but prospects for beef remain uncertain as China is yet to indicate when it will reopen following this month’s BSE-related suspension.
Prices
The gloom surrounding the EU pig market shows no sign of being dispelled as pig prices have fallen for the twelfth week in a row. The EU average price for Class E pigs in the week ending 5 September was EUR140.49 per 100kg, down by 1.1% on the previous week. In Germany the price was down by 1.9% at EUR134.67 per 100kg, a trend which was mirrored in Denmark (-1.4%), Poland (-3.7%) and Spain (-0.8%). EU prices have now fallen by more than 15% since reaching their 2021 peak in early June, and there is no immediate sign of any price recovery. In contrast, EU egg prices have gained more than 6% over the past month, as levels of supply start to lag behind resurgent demand.
Sep 17 - Market Briefing: Dairy (IHSmarkit)
- US cheese production exceeded expectations in July on higher mozzarella volumes
- Australian plant-based beverage demand up 8% y/y
- Brazilian farmgate milk prices break another record in August
Production
- Total US cheese production was up 4% y/y in July, 13 million pounds above expectations. This was mainly due higher mozzarella production. Butter production in July totaled 147 million pounds, down 9% m/m and down 1% y/y. This is bullish for butter prices based on lower production but stocks that are 7% above year-ago levels might bring balance.
Demand
- Plant-based beverage sales in Australian retail rose 8% in the 12 months to 8 August, with the oat drink category alone up 105% y/y. While the growth is significant, plant-based is still a niche business, as conventional milk accounted for 92% of total sales in the period.
- France’s dairy giant Savencia highlighted a recovery in foodservice demand in the first half of 2021, as sales of products like SMP, whey and butter increased by 13% to €1.1 billion, outpacing the growth in the cheese category, which rose 7% y/y.
Trade
Chilean demand for dairy continued growing, with total dairy imports up 30% y/y in volume and 37% y/y in value in the seven months to July, to 88,000 tonnes and $295 million. Cheese intakes rose 49% y/y to 43,700 tonnes and accounted for 50% of imports.
Prices
- Brazilian raw milk prices continue to surge, as the average broke another record in August by rising 2% m/m and 21% y/y to BRL2.36/liter ($0.46). High farmgate prices have started affecting the profitability of milk processors, with retail prices for UHT milk and mozzarella starting to rise.
- In Europe, dairy quotations are up on lower supply. SMP prices are heading towards a new record last broken in 2014. SMP was up by 2% w/w on the Dutch ZuivelNL exchange, at €2,640/tonne, narrowing the gap with the German Kempten price, which is up 2% at €2,680/tonne. The French AgriMer price is 1% higher, at €2,583/tonne.
Sep 17 - South Korea’s NOFI buys 201,000 T corn and 65,000 T feed wheat - trade
South Korea's largest animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) purchased an estimated 201,000 tonnes of animal feed corn and 65,000 tonnes of feed wheat in an international tender that closed on Thursday, European traders said. The corn was purchased in three consignments at premiums over Chicago futures, they said.
Sep 17 - Famine to feast: Australia prepares for huge wheat harvest
Eighteen months after drought ravaged Australian farms, grain growers are on course to harvest a second consecutive bumper crop as global wheat prices hover near eight-year highs. The agricultural revival has underpinned a dramatic increase in rural land prices, although the exuberant market is straining pandemic-hit supply chains hit by machinery and worker shortages ahead of the harvest window that opens next month.
Sep 17 - Cargill launches U.S. carbon farming program for 2022 season
Global commodities trader Cargill Inc said on Thursday it is launching a carbon farming program for the 2022 season that will pay growers for production practices that lower emissions and capture more climate-warming carbon in soils. Cargill's RegenConnect program will use soil sampling, farm data and remote sensing to estimate the environmental benefit of practices like planting cover crops or not tilling soils, then pay growers $20 for every ton of the carbon sequestered.
Sep 16 - Ukrainian sunoil prices increased by 4% on lack of sunseed supply
Prices for Ukrainian sunflower oil have increased by 4% since the beginning of the week, amid delays to harvesting and farmers holding on to their sunflower stocks, while the supply of Russian sunflower oil in the Black Sea region is constrained by tax limits in a move that is adding further support to prices.
Prices for October loading as of September 15 jumped to a seven-year high of $1,305/mt on an FOB basis.
This was facilitated by the limited supply of sunflower, which in turn has fueled an 8% increase in the domestic CPT market since the beginning of the week, rising to UAH18,500/mt ($695/mt).
“Sunflower harvesting lags significantly behind. Up to 10% has been harvested today. I think that by October 1, sunseed will be actively harvesting and prices will begin to decline,” a trade source at a crusher based in central Ukraine told Agricensus.
“In the face of higher prices by crushers, farmers have begun to hold back sales and wait for further price increases,” a market source said.
“Depending on the region and the progress of harvesting, we sometimes see enough offers of sunflower. When competing for raw materials, crushers raise prices,” a source at a crusher in the southern region said.
The supply of sunflower oil in the Black Sea is limited by the late harvesting of sunflower in Ukraine and Russia, while in addition to that, the export duty on sunflower oil from Russia makes exports unattractive in October.
“Sunoil sellers are still announcing high prices, as the domestic market has dried up and pays significantly higher, up to RUB80,000-87,000/mt ($1,076-1,089/mt), than an exporter who is ready to pay RUB80,000-87,000/mt ($1,103-1,200/mt) in the CPT port,” a trader based in Russia said.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine, 344,000 ha - or 5% of the planned area - were harvested in Ukraine on September 10, while 715,450 mt of sunflower were harvested.
At the same time, according to market estimates, about 15-20% or about 2.2-3 million mt have been harvested.
Sep 16 - South Korea’s KFA buys about 68,000 tonnes corn in private deal - trade - Reuters News
The Korea Feed Association (KFA) purchased about 68,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in a private deal on Wednesday without a formal international tender being issued, European traders said. It was purchased by the KFA's Incheon section, partly at an outright price of an estimated $326.39 a tonne c&f and partly at a premium of 305 U.S. cents over the Chicago December 2021 corn contract.
Sep 16 - China buys Brazilian soy as hurricane damage limits U.S. exports, traders say
Chinese importers bought four to six bulk cargoes of Brazilian soybeans early this week for shipment in October and November, an unusual purchase during the peak export period for rival supplier the United States, two traders with knowledge of the deals said on Wednesday. The deals for up to an estimated 360,000 tonnes of soybeans were inked as export terminals along the U.S. Gulf Coast in Louisiana, the country's busiest crop shipping outlet, have struggled to recover from damage, flooding and power outages caused by Hurricane Ida on Aug. 29.
Sep 16 - China eases wheat quality terms for rain-hit French crop - traders
Chinese buyers have agreed to relax a key quality specification for upcoming shipments of French wheat in response to rain damage in France's harvest, traders familiar with the matter said. France, the European Union's biggest grain producer, has become a significant supplier of wheat to China in the past two years due to fluctuating trade relations between Beijing and other suppliers as well as a Chinese push to replenish grain stocks.
Sep 15 - Russian wheat harvest rose in week to Sep 14, now 70.7m (AgriCensus )
- Russia's grain harvest advanced 2.9 million mt over the week to September 14 and is now complete on 37.2 million ha with 98.9 million mt of product already in the bins, data from the country’s agriculture ministry showed Wednesday.
Alongside that, winter sowings are now complete on approaching 7.8 million ha, while completion of the current Russian wheat harvest rose by 2 points over the week to 24.4 million ha or 70.7 million mt of grain harvested.
The increase in the harvested area for barley amounted to 100,000 hectares taking the total complete to 7.2 million hectares, with 17.5 million tons of barley in the bins.
- Corn was harvested on 240,900 hectares, which produced 1.1 million mt with an average yield of 4.4mt/ha.
The USDA expects wheat production in Russia in the 2021/22 season to be 72.5 million mt, while expectations for barley fell by just over 5% to 18 million mt compared to the previous forecast. The USDA also expects Russian corn to reach 15.5 million tonnes.
- For sunseeds, the increase in the harvested area under sunflower has doubled to 1.2 million ha as farmers harvested 1.9 million mt.
- The rapeseed harvest has reached 921,400 ha, while 1.7 million mt is now in the bins.
As for soybeans, the harvest more than doubled versus the previous week to 427,100 hectares, with 701,100 mt of soybeans now gathered in.
- Sunflower production will amount to 15.5 million mt, soybean 4.6 million mt, rapeseed 2.75 million mt, according to USDA estimates.
Sep 15 - Canada cuts canola, wheat estimates further due to drought
A drought has damaged Canada's canola and wheat harvests even more than it appeared weeks ago, according to a Statistics Canada report. Record-hot summer temperatures in Canada's western crop belt, combined with sparse rain, sharply reduced farm yields of the world's biggest canola-growing nation. Canada is also a major wheat exporter.
Sep 15 - Argentine corn set for record harvest, nudging out soy
Argentina's corn crop will grow to a record 55 million tonnes in the 2021/22 season, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Tuesday, booming on expanded planting area at the expense of 2021/22 soybeans, the country's main cash crop. Argentina is the world's top exporter of soymeal and oil and the second largest of corn. However, farmers have recently been pivoting towards corn from soy due to its greater sowing flexibility, which trims the risk of being affected by drought.
Sep 14 - China snaps up Brazil soybeans on urgent demand, tight US supply (AgriCensus)
- Chinese soybean importers have turned to Brazil to secure cargoes for October shipment as a shortage of spot supply from both the US Gulf and the Pacific Northwest export hubs makes it hard to met urgent prompt demand from North America, several trading sources have told Agricensus. The move is unusual as typically the US would be dominant during this period of the year, but a range of issues across the country mean none of the primary export hubs are working at anything close to capacity.
- China's crushers were heard scrambling to secure October shipments from Brazilian soybeans to cover short-term demand, with six cargoes out of Brazil booked for next month on Monday.
Those cargoes were traded at prices between 417 c/bu and 425 c/bu over November futures, hitting the highest level on record.
- The large purchases from Brazil during the country's soybean off-season came in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida's hit on the US Gulf at the end of August, with the storm thwarting exports since then.
The damage caused to the US's busiest grain export hub interrupted China's buying pace for US soybeans during the harvest period - when pricing is typically at its most competitive.
- At the same time, the US Pacific Northwest ports are also showing a scarcity of supply for soybeans.
"There is no more soybean in the US PNW ports for October shipment. Only a few are left for November and December loading," a China-based trading manager in grain said.
- The world's top soybean buyer has been seriously behind its typical purchase pace, with China only completing 74% of total planned buying for October and nearly five million mt more needed to buy to put November's plan to bed, a trading source told Agricensus. Markets are expecting China to ramp up its soybean purchases from the US Gulf to cover spot demand once facilities in those ports resume operations this week. However, Brazil-based sources warned that the cargoes could still be executed out of the US, should logistics improve.
"I think that we could see some future washouts from PNW to Gulf when the US Gulf logistics come back," Victor Martins from Hedgepoint Global Markets told Agricensus.
"Those six cargoes from Brazil to China were for optional origin, which I believe can be switched back to Gulf," he added.
Sep 14 - U.S. grain exports sink as Gulf terminals struggle to recover from Ida
U.S. grain exports slumped to their lowest level in years last week as shippers struggled to restart loading operations along the Louisiana Gulf Coast after Hurricane Ida flooded and damaged grain terminals and knocked out power across the region, preliminary data showed on Monday. Weekly U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) grain inspections data, an early indicator of shipments abroad, showed the volume of corn weighed and certified for export last week was the lowest in 8-1/2 years as no grain was inspected along the Louisiana Gulf Coast, the busiest outlet for U.S. crops.
Sep 14 - Saudi Arabia buys 382,000 tonnes wheat in tender - trade
Saudi Arabia's main state wheat-buying agency, the Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO), has purchased 382,000 tonnes of wheat in an international tender, it said on Monday. The tender had closed on Friday with the agency seeking arrival in Saudi Arabia in November.
Sep 14 - Kinder Morgan, Neste to retrofit tanks for green fuels feedstocks
Pipeline operator Kinder Morgan Inc plans to convert some Louisiana tank and piping infrastructure to hold used cooking oil and other feedstocks for Finnish renewable-fuels giant Neste, the companies told Reuters. U.S. energy companies are keen to modify existing infrastructure to use for boosting the supply of renewable fuels that emit less carbon than traditional refined products like gasoline or diesel.
Sep 14 - U.S. corn ratings decline, harvest 4% complete; soy ratings flat - USDA
Condition ratings for the U.S. corn crop declined during the last week while the corn harvest got under way in the core Midwest production belt, the U.S. Agriculture Department said on Monday. The U.S. corn harvest was 4% complete, the USDA said in a weekly progress report, compared with the five-year average of 5% for this time of year. By state, corn was 1% harvested in Illinois, the No. 2 U.S. producer of the feed grain, but harvest had not yet begun measurably in Iowa, the top corn-growing state.