Grains, Seeds, Vegoils, Meals, Softs, Agri News

Mar 18 - Russia's drone attack on Odesa damages agribusinesses, Ukraine says
Russian air attacks damaged agricultural enterprises and destroyed several industrial buildings in the Black Sea port of Odesa overnight, Ukraine's forces said on Sunday. Russia launched 16 drones and seven missiles, Ukraine's air force posted on the Telegram messaging app. Fourteen drones were destroyed over the Odesa region.

Mar 18 - Funds cover CBOT soy and corn shorts, snapping bean selling streak: Braun
Speculators covered short positions in Chicago corn and soybeans last week, chipping away at their still-massive bearish bets as futures continued climbing off multi-year lows. In the week ended on March 12, money managers cut their net short position in CBOT soybean futures and options to 155,137 contracts from a record 171,999 in the prior week, predominantly on short covering. This was the first week with funds as net bean buyers in 17 weeks, ending a record-long selling stretch.


Mar 15 - Ukraine Agri Weekly SPIKE_MARKET report

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch @147$→148$→149$
· corn 2024 FCA border of Ukraine, yellow-birch @146€
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch-flower @165.5$
· wheat 11.0pro DAP mon. Italy, May @MLK24
· sunflower DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch-flower @14'800 UAH14'850 UAH→15'100 UAH with VAT

- Ukraine:
· The cost of railway logistics is at the lowest level in the current season.
· As of 13.03, Ukraine exported 353 thousand tons to China in March, including 272 thousand tons of corn.
- Europe:
· The cost of railway logistics on the route Chop - Mon. Italy in the period of October-March is contracted in the range of 40-45€.
· The European Commission refused to return import-tariff quotas for Ukrainian grain.
· The European Commission has been given the authority to respond quickly to any significant disorders in the European market of particularly sensitive groups of products, namely poultry, eggs and sugar. If imports of these products exceed the average volumes of 2022 and 2023, tariffs will be re-introduced for these products.

- Prices for corn in Ukrainian ports reach $ 150 per ton. Sellers hold this target level for sale, which makes buyers gradually equalize with it. On the western border of Ukraine, corn of the new crop sold at 146€ loaded into the European train from October to March.

- Food wheat with a protein content of 11.5% was traded in the direction of the Black Sea ports at a price of 164$ to 166$ per ton. The price of feed wheat remains at the level of corn with delivery in March-April. The new wheat crop was traded in the direction of northern Italy at a price of 192€ to 194€ per ton with a protein content of 11%.

- Sunflower prices are fixed in all directions. Processors in Ukraine paid for sunflower 330-350$ per ton, depending on the place of delivery and oil content. In the Bulgarian market, the price of sunflower also increased by an average of $ 10 per ton.

- The price of soy remains at the level of last week. The new soybean crop without GMO was traded at 420-430€ DAP Italy/Germany or 80-90 cents to the November futures on soybeans on the Chicago Stock Exchange.


Mar 15 - Wheat shipments postponed to China, including Australian origin (AgriCensus)

- Some deliveries of Australian wheat bound for China are being postponed, in addition to US wheat cancellations reported recently and talk of deferred shipments for French and Canadian wheat origins, trade sources told Agricensus Thursday. Talk of possible delays or even cancellations of Australian-origin wheat appeared in the market on Tuesday, with some of the trade sources saying the trigger might be some companies starting to offer wheat at below market prices.

- But according to industry sources Agricensus spoke with, it is more a case of delaying shipments into China rather than cancelling them, and this process started already some time ago, with a few sources mentioning January as the time when delays began.
“I got some confirmation now that some cargoes are getting rolled but I have not yet heard of them being cancelled,” a local trader said. “I think it has been happening for a while, but there has been some more recently. They trying to roll/defer as much as they can because of the slow domestic market,” they continued.
“No cancellations, just request for later shipment; this has been going on for a while,” a second trader said, while a third noted that exports to China were very slow.

No major effect has been seen in the market following the talk of delays and cancellations, with trade sources saying that for now they only see a lesser interest from Chinese buyers for new purchases.

The talk appeared after 504,000 tonnes of US SRW wheat cargoes were cancelled to China, but trade sources said that they had been expecting this to happen.

There was also talk of deferred French wheat cargo shipments, which is also not new as this first began back in November 2023, when it was suggested that exporters had been asked to postpone volumes scheduled for December loading until January or February.

Customs data showed that in December French wheat exports to China amounted to 690,915 tonnes, and in January to 609,884 tonnes, while in the past few years, January figures were significantly lower.

There has also been market talk of deferred deliveries for Canadian origin, reportedly in February, but at the same time, some sources said China had continued to take volumes from Canada after this.

China is among the biggest wheat importers in the world, with 11 million tonnes of imports expected in 2023/24, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), while from July to January, 6.24 million tonnes had already been imported, the bulk of which came from Australia.


Mar 15 - IGC sees record global grains crop in 2024/25
The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday forecast a record global grain crop in the 2024/25 season, reinforcing concerns about a global glut. The inter-governmental body, issuing its first full set of supply and demand projections for the 2024/25 season, saw global grains production rising to a record 2.332 billion metric tons from the prior season's 2.304 billion.

Mar 15 - Soil moisture for Argentina's soybean crop improves after rains
The percentage of Argentine soybean plantings with optimal-to-excellent soil moisture grew to 77% in the last week, boosted by recent rains, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday. Argentina is one of the world's top exporters of processed soybeans, and the exchange estimates the 2023/24 harvest at 52.5 million metric tons.


Mar 14 - Sesame Seed Update for March 2024 (IHSmarkit)

- Bumper African crops fueling the global supply
- 5% m/m fall in spot and futures prices in India
- Robust Ethiopian exports, taking advantage of slowed Sudanese shipments

African sesame seed origins have had bumper crops, Nigeria and Sudan particularly, with both reaching 320,000-350,000 metric tons and around 400,000 metric tons, respectively, with the former having already sold around three-quarters of its crop. Other minor origins such as Ethiopia, Tanzania and Burkina Faso might reach around 200,000 metric tons each one. The Red Sea crisis has slowed shipments from Sudan although the others are exporting in full swing, fueling a long-term bearish trend.


- India : the disappointing Indian sesame production has fueled imports of African seeds, although the domestic demand is flat, according to trading sources. Domestic prices are bearish as processors specialized in re-exporting cleaned African sesame to the Far East and the EU, have slowed their shipments. Spot prices averaged 15,700 Indian rupees per quintal (1,879/metric ton) in the Unjha (Gujarat, Northwest) wholesale market on 12 March 2024, 5% less m/m and 6% less year-on-year. Futures prices for deliveries from March - are following a bearish trend, ranging from INR15,730-15,920/quintal, 5% less y/y.

Indian exports fell by 4% y/y to 224,690 metric tons but grew by 16% y/y to $489.6 million in 2023. The main importers were the US (18,197 metric tons, +18% y/y); South Korea (17,640 metric tons, -57.6% y/y) and Russia (13,300 metric tons, -9% y/y).

Indian imports reached 123,270 metric tons in 2023, five times more y/y. The main suppliers were Brazil and Sudan, accounting for 46% and 31%, respectively.


- China : China’s imports fell by 15% y/y to 912,850 metric tons in 2023. Niger, Pakistan and Tanzania were the main suppliers, accounting for 21%, 18% and 14%, respectively.

- Niger (West Africa) has supplied around 209,780 metric tons to China in 2023, strengthening its role as the main supplier and cutting market share to other African origins such as Sudan or Ethiopia, despite the political instability in the former.

- Ethiopia is taking advantage of slowed Sudanese shipments. Ethiopia’s exports reached 64,077 metric tons (+96% y/y) in January-February 2024. The main importers were the UAE, Israel and Singapore, accounting for 30%, 16% and 12%, respectively. Ethiopian sesame seed prices have been stabilized at $1,830/metric ton FOB Djibouti for whitish Wollega grade 3-5 from January-February 2024, 16% more y/y.

- Outlook : the international sesame seed market might have stabilized as African producers are securing supply. However, prices are higher than pre-Covid quotes as disappointing crops in India are making it hard for prices to fall below $1,600-1,700/metric FOB if the Red Sea restrictions do not finish.


Mar 14 - Chinese buyers cancel or postpone Australian wheat buys amid global oversupply
Chinese wheat importers have cancelled or postponed about one million metric tons of Australian wheat imports, trade sources with direct knowledge of the deals said, as growing world stockpiles drag down prices. The moves come after the U.S. government reported cancellation of more than 500,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat exports last week to China, the world's No. 1 buyer, with international prices trading close three and a half year lows.

Mar 14 - Cashew update for March 2024 (IHSmarkit)

- 13% y/y fall in Ivorian minimum farmgate prices
- West African and Indian harvests delayed by three-four weeks
- 49% y/y increase in Vietnamese exports in January-February 2024

Cashew harvests are taking place in West Africa and India, with collection and processing periods delayed by three-four weeks. Demand for cashews is at highs due to the Ramadan festival in the Middle East, Central Asia and Indonesia, fueling prices gradually. Ivory Coast, the largest African supplier, has announced that the minimum farmgate price has been set at 275 West African francs per kilo ($0.45/kg), 13% less y/y. However, this price fall might be offset by rising sea shipping fees.

The CIF reference export price for RCNs has been set at a minimum of $1,105/metric ton for export tariff. In addition, it has settled the following minimum quotes:
- XOF300/kg in warehouses
- XOF329/kg at factory outlet.

The 2023-24 production is expected to increase by 5% y/y to around 1.31 million metric tons of raw cashew nuts (RCNs). The local manufacturers processed a record of 265,860 metric tons in 2023, 22% more y/y, in 28 plants and the government forecasts a 20% y/y growth in 2024.

Ivorian exports are strengthening the pattern settled in previous seasons, with Ivory Coast becoming a key global supplier of processed cashews. Its exports of in-shells fell by 53% year-on-year to 3,964 metric tons in January-February. Meanwhile, exports of kernels rose by 53% y/y to 8,369 metric tons. The main importers were the Netherlands, the US and Germany, accounting for 13%, 12% and 11%, respectively.

Indian processors are raising their orders for RCNs as its harvest is also late, according to Olam Nuts in its latest market update. The local demand is strong and is pushing up prices.

Currently, the price difference between West African and Vietnamese WW240 is around $0.20-0.30/lb, with African processors not willing to cut prices to raise their market share in the short-term.

- Vietnam : Vietnamese international sales of cashews fell by 59% y/y in volume to 26,590 metric tons in February 2024, although seasonal exports remain high: 91,729 metric tons (+49% y/y) valued at $493.2 million (+34% y/y). The main importers were the US, China and the Netherlands, accounting for 25%, 24% and 7%, respectively, of the volume. Vietnam’s RCN imports fell by 17% y/y to 225,630 metric tons. The main suppliers were Cambodia (34% of the total), Tanzania (24%) and Ivory Coast (11%). Vietnam is still the global driver of prices. Quotes for W240 averaged $2.93/lb EXW UK, 1% more month-on-month and 3% more than in January. However, it is far from the high reached in July-December 2021, during the Covid-19 restrictions: $3.8/lb.

- India : there is no available 2024 data from India yet. India’s international sales rose by 29% y/y to 68,400 metric tons in 2023. RCNs accounted for 30% and mirroring 2021, with exports of 25,950 metric tons of RCNs, with India being forced to halt factories and export their RCN partially to Vietnam due to Covid-19 restrictions. It is still early to know why India exported around 20,500 metric tons to Vietnam in 2023 although the gradual fall of cashew market share against almonds, walnuts and pistachios might be at the core of that. Indian imports of RCNs in 2023 fell by 14% y/y to 1.18 million metric tons. The main suppliers were Ghana, Ivory Coast, Togo and Benin, accounting for 18%, 16%, 14% and 9%, respectively.

- Outlook : Ivory Coast and other West African origins are close to maintaining their momentum for cashew exports, just when Vietnamese authorities are raising their controls after several cases of fraud and disappointing quality. Ivory Coast is fulfilling successfully EU maximum residue limits (MRLs), importers willing to pay the premium price requested by processors. The trend might increase due to delayed harvests in West Africa and India, with African processors holding high processed inventories against the Indians and Vietnamese, whose stocks of RCNs are at lows.


Mar 13 - Argentina downpour drenches crop fields, flash floods in Buenos Aires
Intense rains in Argentina are beginning to leave the soil too wet in key agricultural areas, which could also make it harder to harvest the 2023/24 soybean crop, a climate specialist said on Tuesday, though the conditions could be good for the 2024/25 wheat crop. The heavy rains also caused flooding in parts of the city of Buenos Aires, with residents wading through up to waist-high waters and storms bringing "a lightning strike every second," meteorologists said.
 
Mar 13 - Australian farmer confidence bounces back after rains douse dry pastures
Widespread rainfall and improving livestock prices have lifted confidence levels among Australian farmers to their highest in two years, a survey showed. Australia is one of the world's biggest agricultural exporters. Farmers became extremely negative during 2023 as an El Nino weather phenomenon brought dry conditions that hammered crop yields and livestock markets.


Mar 13 - Peanut market report update for March 2024 (IHSmarkit)

- US peanut supply tightened by strong exports
- A good crop is still possible in Argentina
- Concerns over potential quality of Brazilian peanuts due to erratic weather

Peanut stocks in Europe have continued to fall in the last month despite the market being relatively quiet. Prices for spot goods in Europe have already increased and are expected to continue doing so until there is relief from Argentina, but probably not before July.

The US market is tight due to this origin’s smaller crop and reduced quality, with higher incidence of aflatoxin, plus strong exports. If US peanut exports remain strong, its prices could increase further.

There is very little left in Argentina for the current crop. New crop has recovered from its dry spell and good weather is needed now through harvesting.

Brazil has struggled with its new crop and quality and yields could be in jeopardy.

Chinese peanut prices for current crop material have risen slightly, but demand remains weak. New crop plantings will soon start and these are expected to be flat.

U.S. To date the USDA national tonnage report has 2,969,627 farmer stock tons (fst) inspected including 28,664 fst of so-called segregation 2/3s.

In his March 2024 peanut market report Alex Izmirlian, general manager of US company Alimenta Agri, observed: “The supply has tightened considerably because of the continued strong increase in exports. If exports continue at this pace, the carry-over at the end of July 2024 would be around 850,000 fst, which would be the lowest carry-over since the 2019 crop.”

On 11 March, US company Olam Nuts observed that US peanut demand continues to hold stable in the 3 million short tons range. It warned that although the industry had an estimated 1.016 million short tons carry-in from the 2022 crop, 2023 production being below 3 million short tons, particularly with quality issues, creates a very tightly supplied market. “Experts are estimating a possible 2-5% increase in acres for 2024 crop plantings, which is actually needed (especially if there are yield issues again) to get the US back to a comfortable supply,” Olam Nuts added.

As a result of the tight supply, US peanut prices have gained, particularly for the short term (through April). “The blanched market is extremely tight,” Izmirlian warned. Market prices are nominally $0.68 for splits, $0.69-70 for mediums, and jumbos $0.70-0.73. Short-term and quality are commanding premiums.

S&P Global Commodity Insights price data listed US 40-50 runners at $1,950 per metric ton CFR NW Europe as of 4 March.

Olam Nuts noted: “The US kernel market has been fairly active over the past month with interest in both 2024 and 2025 calendar coverage. Kernel prices for the 2023 crop continue to hold firm in the upper $0.60s, experiencing upward pressure as inventory gets tighter and tighter. Offers for prompt or nearby positions are extremely limited to not available. Kernel prices for the 2024 crop are in the upper $0.50s to low $0.60s, depending on spec, with little trading. Until it is known what shellers will pay for the 2024 crop farmer stock, they will remain hesitant to offer.”


Mar 12 - Brazil's 2024 soy sales hit 54.5 mln tons as farmers hesitate
Sales of the 2023/24 soybean harvest in Brazil reached 36.6% of projected production, behind the historical average for the period but slightly ahead of last year at this time, according to agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercado on Monday. Based on Safras' estimated soybean output for Brazil this season, farmers have sold an estimated 54.5 million metric tons to buyers like exporters and domestic processors.

Mar 12 - Black Sea grain exports beating early market ideas by substantial degree -Braun
Ukraine, particularly in the last few months, has been exporting much more grain than anyone expected despite more than two years of war with neighboring Russia. This, combined with two bumper Russian wheat crops, has led to an enormous surplus of Black Sea grain shipments over the last two seasons compared with what was initially predicted, a surplus that could easily replace entire export programs of other top suppliers.


Mar 11 - European butter prices firm as reports suggest milk fat content is low (IHSmarkit)

European dairy markets weakened last week, with butter the exception.

In the week ending March 3, the EU Commission butter price added 0.8% to €5,610/metric ton, with the lead over last year extending to 18%. Butter demand continues to be reported as brisk, with prices being supported by low milk fat levels.

The cheese sector saw notable weakness, with the Emmental price falling 0.9% to €5,870/metric ton while the Edam price lost 0.7% to €4,340/metric ton. Although cheese prices have fallen, reports suggest demand is firm and warehouses relatively empty.

Following two weeks of gains, the SMP price trembled and lost 1.3% to €2,510/metric ton. Meanwhile, the WMP price scrapped another gain, adding 0.7% to €3,660/metric ton, bringing the total gain over the past four weeks to 2.2%. The WMP price does lag where it stood 5-weeks ago.

Although WMP prices have risen, little processing is taking place. SMP demand has increased for food-quality product, while animal feed demand has cooled. With Ramadan beginning, the SMP market will likely be quiet for the coming weeks. The whey price remained relatively stable at €820/metric ton.


Mar 11 - USDA cuts Brazil soy crop further, remains above private estimates
The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for Brazil's soybean crop further on Friday, but it remains above many private estimates. Large supplies in South America and lackluster Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans loom over U.S. soy futures, despite reduced projections for Brazilian output due to adverse weather. Prices last week fell to their lowest level in more than three years at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Mar 11 - Funds ink all-time bearish soybean bets off unprecedented selling streak -Braun
Speculators have been selling Chicago-traded soybeans since mid-November, and that finally culminated in a record position last week as global stockpiles swell. In the week ended March 5, money managers lifted their net short position in CBOT soybean futures and options to a record 171,999 contracts from 160,653 a week earlier. That replaced the prior all-time net short of 168,835 contracts from May 2019.


Mar 08 - Ukraine Grain SPIKE_MARKET weekly report

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch @143$→144$→146$→145$
· wheat 11.0pro DAP mon. Italy, May @MLK24
· wheat 11.0pro 2024 DAP Mon. Italy, yellow-Dec @MLZ24-5€
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch-flower @142$
· barley DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch @151$
· soybean GMO DAP Danube, Ukraine, birch @425$
· sunflower IN DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch @16'000 UAH with VAT

- Ukraine:
· In February, the agricultural export index became the second absolute record in wartime - 7.3 million tons (the largest export was only 7.45 million tons in March 2023).
· The structure of agricultural exports in February is as follows: corn - 2.9 million tons, wheat - 2.5 million tons, barley - 206 thousand tons, soybeans - 284 thousand tons, rape - 259 thousand tons, sunflower - 34 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 590 thousand tons, soybean oil - 30 thousand tons, cake and meal - 516 thousand tons.
· The structure of agricultural exports by means of transport in February was: by sea transport through the Black Sea ports - 70%; by river transport through the Danube ports - 16%; by rail through the western border - 10%; by road - 2%; by other means of transport - 2%.

- Corn prices were found by sellers all over the supply chain. The CIF market in Spain was strengthened by 3-4$ and traded at 200-202$ with delivery in May-June. The reduction of freight costs by an average of 1-2$ per ton allowed to improve purchasing prices for exporters in Ukraine. In the ports of Ukraine corn was traded at 143-146$ DAP. The remaining export potential of corn in Ukraine is estimated at 8.3 million tons, taking into account the expected export in March. This is approximately 1.6 million tons of exports every month from April to August. Meanwhile, the average export rate of corn remains at 2.5 million tons per month.

- Feed wheat equalized at the price with corn. The remaining export potential of wheat in Ukraine is estimated at 3 million tons after the March export.
The new crop began to crush and actively traded at the levels of the old harvest. Sellers on the western border actively traded a new crop tied to the MATIF exchange, which is a common practice in the European market. Sales in the direction of Mon. Italy for the period of July-December were at between -8€ to September futures and between -5€ to December futures, depending on the delivery period.

- The processors have stepped up the purchase of sunflower to meet the needs for the coming months. Prices in the domestic market with delivery to the plants have strengthened to $ 10 per ton. The VO sunflower award remains at 20$ per ton.

- Prices for soybeans remain at the same level as last week. New soybean crop without GMO with delivery in October-December was traded at 420-430€ towards Italy and Germany, depending on the mode of transport.


Mar 08 - Argentina grain exchange says 80% of soy fields growing well
Eight in 10 hectares (19.8 to 24.71 acres) of Argentine soybean fields are in "normal to excellent" condition, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday, thanks to recent rainfall over northern parts of the South American country. Argentina is one of the world's two main exporters of soybean oil and soybean meal, along with Brazil, and the exchange believes this season's crop will hit 52.5 million metric tons - the highest figure in five years.

Mar 08 - Brazil mills boost sugar capacity, 'leave' ethanol to corn processors
Brazil cane mills will boost their sugar production capacity as much as 10% in the new season from April to take advantage of relatively high sugar prices and as increasing supplies of corn make the grain a cheap feedstock for ethanol output. Brazil is the world's largest sugar producer. It accounted for nearly 50% of global sugar trade last year as unfavorable weather due to the El Nino climate pattern reduced output and exports from competitors India and Thailand.


Mar 07 - Egypt's GASC cancels May wheat tender as Russian prices stay high (AgriCensus)

- Egypt’s state grain importer has canceled a wheat buy tender issued for May 1-10 shipment, where the lowest offer made was for Bulgarian-origin wheat, without giving any reason, trade sources have told Agricensus Thursday.

- The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) made no purchase in its tender held on Thursday, despite offers of Bulgarian origin wheat being shown at $225.70/mt and $233.77/mt FOB Varna on 180 and 270-days payment terms respectively, and the lowest freight idea at $16.50/mt.That made it $242.20/mt and $250.27/mt CFR respectively, the cheapest offer on the day.

- Apart from Bulgarian origin, Romanian and French were the next most competitive options among the 27 offers placed, while Russian offers were well out of competition with all the selling ideas shown at the unofficial “floor” price of $235/mt FOB for 180-days term and $260/mt for 270-days term. That is $10/mt lower compared to the previous tender level for a 180-day term and $5/mt down for 270-day term, but was still way above the offers that are seen in the broader market now – with levels at around $200-205/mt FOB NTTK. Trade sources said that the discrepancy in prices could be the main reason for the cancelation, as with the recent, significant drop in the physical market price, GASC officials were expecting to see lower levels, especially from Russia.

The country is the cheapest world origin right now, but was listed at the highest price among other competitors in the tender. At its previous tender, which closed on February 16, GASC booked 180,000 mt of Ukrainian and Romanian-origin wheat paying $255/mt CFR for the April 10-25 shipment.


Mar 07 - China Jan-Feb soybean imports fall to 5-year low
Soybean imports for top oilseed buyer China fell to a five-year low for the first two months of the year, weighed down by poor crushing margins and fewer ship arrivals during the Lunar New Year holidays. Imports for January and February combined were at 13.04 million metric tons, down 8.8% from the same period a year ago, according to the General Administration of Customs.

Mar 07 - World wheat outlook not as heavy as Chicago price plunge suggests - Braun
Exactly two years ago, Chicago wheat futures stamped all-time highs after top exporter Russia invaded fellow supplier Ukraine, immediately throwing almost 30% of global wheat exports into question. But on Wednesday, CBOT wheat slipped to its lowest level since August 2020, joining the ranks with corn and soybeans, which last week also notched their lowest prices since late 2020.


Mar 06 - Argentina farmlands to see drier autumn as El Nino fades, says grains exchange
Rainfall in Argentina is set to become less frequent as the El Nino weather phenomenon subsides, giving way to a drier autumn and the possibility of a La Nina climate pattern, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Tuesday. Argentina is a key global food exporter, and output in the current 2023/24 season has benefited from higher-than-usual rainfall drive by El Nino.

Mar 06 - Mielke sees Malaysian palm oil price at 3,800-4,300 ringgit in next 3 mths
Malaysian palm oil price is seen trading in the range of 3,800 to 4,300 ringgit in the next three months as supplies tighten, leading industry analyst Thomas Mielke said on Wednesday. Malaysia's palm oil benchmark contract was trading at 4,042 ringgit at 0409 GMT, up 1.4% from a day earlier.


Mar 05 - Australia lifts crop production estimates after summer rains
The Australian agriculture ministry raised its estimate for the country's 2023/24 winter wheat harvest by about 500,000 metric tons to 26 million tons, while also lifting its assessments for canola, sorghum and cotton production. The size of Australia's harvests is important for global markets because the country is one of the world's biggest agricultural exporters and will ship most of its crops overseas.

Mar 05 - India's wheat, rapeseed ravaged by rain just before harvesting
Untimely rainfall and hailstorms have battered winter-sown crops, including wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas in India's main producing areas, delaying harvesting, industry and government officials told Reuters. Adverse weather could limit growth in wheat production and complicate the government's efforts to build stocks.

Mar 04 - Brazil soy crop view revised twice in a day showing opposing trends, consultancies say
An agribusiness consultancy on Friday raised the forecast for Brazil's 2023/2024 soybean crop while another cut its projection, indicating how different methodologies and unpredictable weather events have made it difficult to estimate the country's output this season. StoneX raised its soy forecast to 151.5 million metric tons, citing improved climate conditions in a season marked by excessive heat and dryness in top producer Mato Grosso state when the season kicked off.

Mar 04 - Oversized US corn crop responsible for swell in global supplies - Braun
Global corn stockpiles are set to reach five-year highs later in 2024, undergoing their largest annual expansion in seven years. But the United States’ contribution to that growth is much larger than normal after a record harvest last summer. That would usually spur a bit more U.S. demand than is currently projected for 2023-24, though ample supplies in rival exporters have cut into U.S. market dominance, suggesting last year’s huge U.S. corn acreage was excessive.


Mar 01 - Euronext wheat futures plunge to lowest since August 2020 (AgriCensus)

- Euronext milling wheat futures plunged to new lows during intra-day trading on Friday, as traders and investors raised bearish bets on the outlook for wheat near the contract’s expiry.

March Euronext futures were trading as low as €184.50/mt, down €6.25/mt from the open, putting the price of wheat futures at their lowest point since August 2020.
Wheat prices are more than 50% below the over-€400/mt prices seen after Russia's invasion of Ukraine had created uncertainty over global wheat supplies.
Before August 2020, wheat futures had failed to maintain a price level above €200/mt and generally tended to trade between €150/mt and €190/mt.
Traders said the continued pressure from rising Russian exports and increasingly aggressive Russian prices are driving down global wheat prices.

- Russian offers for 11.5% and 12.5% protein wheat cargoes were assessed at $201/mt and $206/mt respectively, on an FOB basis from Russian Black Sea ports.
Surplus stocks elsewhere have also weighed on wheat prices, with millions of tonnes of wheat still yet to be sold in northern Europe and the Black Sea.
A Romanian trader said stocks of old crop milling and feed wheat in Romania and Bulgaria were just below 4 million mt, with traders already making trades on the new crop due in July.

- In Poland, one trader sees around 2.5-2.8 million mt of wheat available, from forecasts of 5.5 million mt of wheat exports for the 2023-2024 marketing year.

- Even as supplies rise, demand remains virtually nonexistent at the European Black Sea ports for new sales of milling wheat, with a similar trading environment for sellers in northern Europe.
- Lower prices have frustrated farmers, who are reluctant to sell in some cases below their production costs as prices plunge, leading to originators being unable to secure wheat supplies one trader said.


Mar 01 - EU pig price makes further gains as market nerves persist (IHSmarkit)

- Concerns over low pig numbers reassert themselves as fundamental market factor
- Wholesalers seek to cover themselves for expected upturn in consumer demand
- EU price now 5% higher than at end of January   

EU pig prices have risen strongly for a third week in a row, as wholesalers seek to cover themselves for an upturn in supplies when the warmer weather arrives in Europe.
Nearly all member states have recorded a price increase over the past week.

The fundamental issue of low pig numbers has reasserted itself as the dominant market factor. With demand expected to pick up soon, nervousness about availability of supplies has pushed the EU benchmark price back to its highest level of 2024 so far.

Prices look set to continue to rise in the short-term, as demonstrated by a further €5 increase (to €220 per 100kg) in the German pig industry’s internal reference price for the period 29 February - 6 March.

There is also rising optimism in exporting countries over the prospects for EU pigmeat sales to third country markets in Asia. This is associated with a reduction in the surplus stocks which had accumulated in these regions over the Covid-19 period, when meat consumption took a big hit.

In the week ending 25 February, the EU average price for Class E pigs was €211.37 per 100kg, an increase of 1.6% on the previous week. This index has now risen by a cumulative 5% since the start of February.

Significant upturns were recorded in both France and Spain, where prices rose by 2.1% and 2.3% respectively week-on-week. Similar trends were noted in the Netherlands (+2.7%), Poland (+1.7%) and Belgium (+1.6%). In Germany, the officially notified price rose by 0.8%, while Danish prices remained unchanged for a third week in a row.


Mar 01 - Dairy Price Update: EU butter prices at a 13-month high (IHSmarket)

- The butter price firmed another 1.6% to €5,568/t, its highest since January 2023. Butter demand is robust ahead of Easter
- European cheese demand continues to be strong for the retail sector and mixed for the food service sector
- For another week European dairy Commodity prices have firmed despite the Spring Flush being just around the corner.

The EU Commission WMP price added 0.7% to €3,635/metric tons, hitting a one-month high. The SMP price added 1.1% to €2,542/t, finding a 6-week high. Inventories are snug, with tighter on-farm milk production keeping production in check. Demand within Europe is ticking over, but international demand is quiet. The Suez Canal disruption continues to hamper export opportunities. Buying activity from the Middle East will be quiet over the coming weeks as Ramadan begins.

Recent weakness in the whey market persisted, with the whey price dropping 0.5% to €817/t. Dry whey demand is generally more active, but buyer interest appears to vary widely. Dry whey supplies are sufficient to meet most buyer needs, and active cheese production keeps plenty of liquid whey available for drying.

The butter price firmed another 1.6% to €5,568/t, its highest since January 2023. Demand is robust as retailers stock up ahead of the Easter celebrations. Industrial butter users continue to be buying, with butter displacing oil and margarine use. Inventories are tight, and while they are growing they remain below year-ago levels.

Cheese prices were again mixed. The Emmental price lost 2.3% to €5,924/t, while the Edam price added 1.9% to €4,368/t. European cheese demand continues to be strong for the retail sector and mixed for the food service sector. Some say food service demand is inconsistent, and others view it as steady. Export demand is steady to stronger and inquiries from outside the European Union continue to increase. Inventories are at a low level and, in some cases, decreasing from demands outpacing production.


Mar 01 - Ukraine Agri SPIKE_MARKET weekly report

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb-birch @146$→144$→142$
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch @142$→140$
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch @6'100 UAH with VAT
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch @158$
· feed wheat DAP Danube, Ukraine, Feb-birch @157$
· barley DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch @151$

- Ukraine
:
· 2 million tons of corn remain unharvested, which is 8% of the total sowing area. Corn remained in the fields of the mainly eastern regions - Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Kherson and Chernihiv regions.
· Low prices and uncertainty about the frontline boundaries are likely to affect the decline in crops, including corn, in areas that are closer to the front.
· The market expects a decrease in corn sowing in 2024 by 10-15% to 3.5-3.7 million hectares.
· The pace of exports of agricultural products across borders with Poland continues to decline, mainly due to the fall in the pace of road transport.
· The cost of rail freight from Chop to Northern Italy was traded at 40€ per ton for the April-May period, compared to the rate of 55€ per ton last year for the same period.

- In February, corn prices reached the lowest level in the last three years due to increased production forecasts in South America, aggressive offers from Ukraine and reduced customer activity, including China, before the Chinese New Year celebration. The market has squeezed prices "to a minimum". The low cost of logistics in Ukraine, combined with low prices, has led to a critical decline in prices for farmers. Sustainable demand for grain in seaports and sellers' resistance create a liquidity vacuum in the market for the coming period. Corn was traded in the range of 135-142$ DAP in the direction of seaports and 135-140€ FCA loaded into Eurocars on the Western market. The market of Western Ukraine and seaports is in price parity (at the level) on corn since October last year.

- Significant volumes of wheat supplies from the Black Sea and the drop in export prices from Russia have influenced market sentiment, pulling global prices and Euronext wheat futures to perennial lows. The price of feed wheat in Ukraine is aligned with the price of corn. The price pressure continues.

- Prices for sunflower have stabilized. The international oil market found a temporary balance at 810-820$ delivered to Bulgaria and 850-870$ CIF Turkey. Sunflower with delivery to factories in Ukraine was traded within 300-330$ without VAT. On the Bulgarian market prices decreased by 15-20$ to 400-410$ delivered to processing.

- Soybeans prices last week keep levels. No special changes in sales directions.


Mar 01 - WTO issues new draft trade deals after all-night talks, some issues unresolved
World Trade Organization negotiators released new draft deals on Friday after all-night talks in Abu Dhabi, showing that several key issues remained unresolved hours away from their deadline, which has already been extended twice. The biennial conference is seeking to revise global commerce rules on a range of topics including curbing fishing subsidies and extending a moratorium on digital trade tariffs - a move that has overwhelming government and business support but that India and South Africa oppose.

 

Mar 01 - India's basmati rice exports to fall as Pakistan's surge
India's basmati rice exports are likely to fall in 2024 after nearing a record high last year, as rival Pakistan is offering the grain at competitive prices amid a rebound in production, industry officials said. India and Pakistan are the leading exporters of the premium long-grain variety of rice, famous for its aroma, to countries such as Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States.

 

Feb 29 - EU sunoil prices fall to 3 year low, biodiesel demand supports rapeoil (AgriCensus)

Ample supplies of sunoil in the European market have caused prices at European ports to fall to their lowest level in three and a half years and, despite this, have left demand at a minimum, while rapeseed oil prices have risen above sunoil for the first time since February 2022 due to continued demand for biofuels, according to Agricensus data. At the same time, soybean oil has lost its premium over other oils as soybean processing in the region has increased.

The underperformance of Black Sea ports due to Russia's war in Ukraine, the situation in the Red Sea, and difficulties in operating alternative routes, have meant large volumes of sunflower oil are flowing to Europe at lower prices, putting pressure on the market. However, the availability of cheaper offers has not triggered an increase in demand, market sources said, as the European market is flooded with sunflower oil.
“Conceptually it should be the opposite - lower price better demand - but there is no demand because the EU has flooded with sunflower oil due to the Red Sea situation and most players are well covered,” a European trader told Agricensus.

Sunoil
- One of the results of the increase in Ukrainian supplies of sunflower oil at lower prices is a decrease in imported soybean and palm oils. According to data from the European Commission, imports of sunflower oil by EU countries have increased by almost 30% to 1.6 million mt since July 2023, compared to the same period a year earlier. The share of supplies of Ukrainian sunflower oil in these imports increased from 89.7% in 2023 to 92.6% in 2024. According to Agrcensus monitoring, prices for sunflower oil at six European ports for delivery in the second quarter of 2024 fell to $915/mt (€845/mt) FOB against $900/mt  (€831/mt) FOB, which is the lowest level since September 2020, when the average price was $855/mt /mt FOB.
“Sunflower oil in Europe lost a lot of demand to other oils when Ukraine and Russia started offering more active,” a European crusher told Agricensus.

- At the same time, the cost of sunflower seeds in EU countries remains quite high, despite the high influx of sunflower oil from Ukraine. According to industry association FEDIOL, the sunflower crush by EU countries in the first five months of the 2023/24 season increased by 9% to 2.4 million mt compared to the previous season, with the January crush amounting to 571,000 mt, which is the highest level since October 2021. According to US Department of Agriculture data, in the current season, imports of sunflower oil by countries of the economic bloc will reach the highest level over the past ten years at 2.35 million mt.

Rapeoil
- Even though the supply of sunflower oil has increased and prices have fallen, rapeseed oil prices remain high. Stable demand from biodiesel production and a reduction in rapeseed crushing in favor of soybeans by large crushers is supporting prices.
“Biodiesel is still having healthy margins and rapeseed oil is the major product for them,” a trader based in the EU said.

- At the same time, FEDIOL data shows that during November, December 2023, and January 2024, rapeseed crushed by European processors reached levels of 1.73-1.79 million mt per month, some of the highest seen. According to Agricensus data, rapeseed oil for delivery in March is offered at €890/mt FOB Rotterdam, against the buyer’s idea of €855/mt, and in April €875/mt FOB Rotterdam against €850/mt. In addition, low sales of rapeseed by farmers have kept the rapeseed oil market in good shape.
“Due to depressed seed prices and farmers not willing to sell the seeds, the overall rapeseeds oil structure elevated,” the trader said.

Soyoil
- Soybean oil has meanwhile lost its premium to other vegoils in Europe as some of the major crushers have turned to soybean processing due to demand for soybean oil-based biodiesel in the US. Soybean crushing by European crushers in December and January increased to an average of 1.17 million mt, the highest level in the past five months. At the same time, prices for soybean oil have fallen by more than 25% since October 2023 to €850/mt FCA Hamburg.


Feb 29 - Brazil's Abiove cuts 2024 soybean output estimate for second time this month
Abiove has cut its estimate for Brazil's 2024 soybean output for the second time this month, the association representing global grain traders and crushers operating in Brazil said on Wednesday. Abiove now expects local farmers to produce 153.8 million metric tons of soybeans, down from the 156.1 million it forecast in February and the 159 million tons produced in 2023.

Feb 29 - Argentina rains to bring more relief to soy and corn crops
Copious rains in the coming days will continue to provide moisture to most of Argentina's agricultural regions, favoring soybean and corn crops planted in the 2023/24 cycle, the Buenos Aires grain exchange (BdeC) said on Wednesday. Argentina is one of the world's largest exporters of soy meal and the world's third largest supplier of corn.


Feb 28 - Indonesia 2024 palm oil output seen rising by 5% year-on-year - GAPKI
Indonesia's palm oil output this year is expected to rise by 5% year-on-year to 57.6 million metric tons as more newly matured crops come into fruition, the Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said on Tuesday. In 2023, palm oil output grew by 7% from the previous year to 54.84 million tons including 50.07 million tons crude palm oil (CPO), despite the moderate dry weather El Nino pattern that hit the country.

Feb 28 - Ivorian cocoa output could fall by up to 25%, farm minister says
Adverse weather in Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, could hit output by as much as 25% this season, Agriculture Minister Kobenan Kouassi Adjoumani said on Tuesday. "We are waiting for the intermediary (mid-crop) campaign for final estimates. For the moment we are at 20% (drop) but forecasts say that, if it (adverse weather) continues, it will fall 25% maximum,” Adjoumani told reporters on the margins of the Paris farm show.


Feb 27 - AgRural again lowers forecast for Brazil's 2023/24 soybean crop
Brazil's 2023/24 soybean crop is expected to reach 147.7 million metric tons, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, lowering a January forecast of 150.1 million tons after yield losses in key producing areas due to adverse weather. Farmers in the world's largest soybean producer and exporter have been grappling with dry and hot weather this season, which has led government agencies and private consultancies to trim their output forecasts.

Feb 27 - Persistent dry, hot weather worries Ivory Coast cocoa farmers
Dry weather and high temperatures continued last week in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa-growing regions, raising concerns for the size and quality of the April-to-September mid-crop, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is in its dry season which runs from mid-November to March, when rain is usually scarce.

Feb 26 - Funds post all-time CBOT corn short and extend record soy selling streak -Braun
U.S. grain and oilseed markets have posted historic declines so far this year with the recovery of global supplies, and prices continued to fall last week even after speculators established their most bearish ever bets in Chicago corn. In the week ended Feb. 20, money managers increased their net short position in CBOT corn futures and options to a record 340,732 contracts from 314,341 a week earlier. That surpassed the prior all-time net short of 322,215 contracts set in April 2019.

Feb 26 - Argentina's hoped-for record corn harvest threatened by sliding prices -exchange
A highly anticipated record corn harvest in Argentina could see its benefits curbed by a global decline in prices, the country's Rosario grains exchange said on Friday, in a possible blow to a new government battling the economy's worst crisis in decades. Corn exports from Argentina, the world's third biggest supplier, are expected to rise 53% compared to last season thanks to ample rainfall favoring the harvest estimated at a record 57 million metric tons.


Feb 23 - Ukrainian sunflower crush margins fall on low sunoil, sunmeal prices (AgriCensus)

- Sunflower oil and meal producers are under pressure across the Black Sea region, after prices for processed products have tumbled over the past month, cutting margins for producers to the bare minimum in some regions, trade sources have told Agricensus Friday. Prices for sunflower oil have fallen 7% over the period, while meal prices have plunged 24% under pressure from prevailing and relatively light demand from the main destinations, leaving processing margins in some regions squeezed as sunflower prices remain at high levels. That could tee up a reduction in output, and has left traders expecting February to see a reduction in expected production levels, particularly in Ukraine as Russia targets excess flows into the Turkish market.

Prices

- Sunflower oil prices from sellers have decreased by an average of $60-70/mt - or 7% - over the past month depending on the country of origin and were heard at $835-840/mt CIF Mersin for spot delivery, against buyers' ideas at $825-830/mt CIF Mersin. Trade sources have told Agricensus that they believe that the market has almost reached its minimum, but would not rule out further adjustments in the short term and believe that March will be a key month. Prices for sunflower meal fell by 24% in Ukrainian ports to $155-165/mt CPT port and were down by 17.5-18% to $225-235/mt CIF Marmara, according to buying levels for March delivery.

Destinations

- This comes as demand from major demand destinations such as India, China, and EU countries remains sluggish and product supply in the Black Sea region is more than sufficient, given the presence of two major sunflower oil exporters in the region. In addition, India, which has significantly reduced purchases of Ukrainian sunflower oil due to the risks associated with the war, and has turned instead to sunflower oil of Russian and Argentine origin, is now inclined to prioritise purchases of Argentine sunflower oil. That comes amid increased risks and additional costs associated with transiting volumes through the Red Sea.

- Russian sellers of sunflower oil are trying to expand their presence in the Turkish market and have been reducing prices sharply to now reach levels that are on average $5/mt lower than Ukrainian volumes. Traders had expressed hope that the return of Chinese buyers, after the Lunar New Year break, would fire some buying interest, but so far the trade seems to be testing the market and have not begun actively buying. Sources spoken to by Agricensus have said they see relatively low prices for sunflower oil of Black Sea origin - at $840/mt CIF China, for delivery in March-April, while for sunflower meal prices were heard at $280-295/mt CIF China on average, depending on quality.

Margin

- Against the background of falling prices for finished products and restrained sales of farmers at high prices, the crush margins of some Ukrainian crushers have reached minimum levels. Trade sources at crushers in the central and western parts of Ukraine talk about a decrease in margins to a minimum level with purchase prices for sunflower at the level of UAH14,000/mt ($363/mt) CPT crush plant, but in some cases margins drop to zero, once increased costs for logistics are factored in. Crushers do not rule out a reduction in crush or its suspension if current trends continue.

However, some crushers in the southern regions report sufficient processing margins of about $50/mt at current price levels for both raw materials and processed products, which is likely due to minimal logistics costs due to the territorial proximity to ports.

Nonetheless, given the decline in prices and sluggish demand in February for sunflower oil and sunflower meal, market participants expect a possible decrease in sunflower crush in February by 7-13% from the 1.5 million mt predicted at the beginning of the month to 1.3-1.4 million mt.


Feb 23 - US farmers face harsh economics with record corn supplies in silos
Illinois farmer Dan Henebry regrets not selling more of his corn crop last summer, when the Midwest needed rain and prices were high. He is not alone. Farmers across the United States are kicking themselves for putting off corn sales after fields dried up in May and June, fueling expectations for higher prices and smaller harvests. Instead, prices tanked as rains saved the crop.

Feb 23 - Ukrainian Agri SPIKE_MARKET Weekly Report

- Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb-birch @144.5$→144$→142$
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Danube, Ukraine, Feb-birch @7'300 UAH with VAT
· wheat 10.5pro DAP Danube, Ukraine, Feb-birch @6'500 UAH with VAT
· wheat 10.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb-berez @152$
· wheat furs. DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch @152$→150$→148$
· barley DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch @152.5$
· sunflower (oil 44%) DAP Sh. Bulgaria, birch-Apr @420$

- Ukraine:
· The correction of the railway logistics chain value from Ukraine’s borders to the markets of Southern and Central Europe opens up good arbitration opportunities for Ukrainian exporters between seaports and the Western border.

- World:
· The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina lowered the forecast for soybean harvest from 49.5 to 52 million tons.
· Soybean harvesting forecasts in Brazil are reduced and fall within expectations from 145 to 156 million tons.

- Buyers in the corn market have divided into two camps. Traders who need to close the nearest positions with delivery to the port for up to 15 days bought corn within 140-145$. In turn, more distant supply positions for March-April were traded within 135-140$ delivered to the port. Lower prices at seaports and lower freight costs across Europe returned parity between western border prices and port prices. Buyers on the western border bought corn at 120€ or 130$ before being transported to European trains. The decline in world corn prices is accompanied by a rapid pace of corn sowing and favorable weather forecasts in Brazil.

- The approach of a new wheat crop causes the world market to adjust the price differences between food and feed wheat. The premium for food wheat is gradually declining, and the price of feed wheat is losing its pricality relative to the price of corn. The new 11% Italian food wheat crop is traded at 200-205€ to northern Italy or 10-15€/ton above the corn price.

- Prices for sunflower could not keep in the domestic market of Ukraine and decreased last week by 10-20$ per ton. Sales of sunflower in the direction of the Bulgarian market is gaining activity, where prices have not changed relative to last week, and in some areas even increased. There is a low level of coverage of processing capacities with raw materials in the Bulgarian market.

- Soybean prices remained unchanged in relation to last week in all directions. It feels that the market is drifting on a "price day".


Feb 22 - Argentina corn and soy outlooks take hit after heat wave
Argentina's Rosario grains exchange cut its estimates for the country's 2023/24 soybean and corn harvests on Wednesday to 49.5 million and 57 million metric tons, respectively, due to a heat wave in late January and early this month. The exchange has previously calculated the soybean harvest at 52 million tons and the corn harvest at 59 million tons.

Feb 22 - Ukraine corn area to lose to soy, but cash shortage limits switch
Ukrainian farmers are reviewing their planting plans for 2024 after low corn prices led to steep losses last year but their ability to switch to more profitable soybeans is limited by scarce funding, producers said. Farmers in the southern regions in the war-stricken country have started spring sowing with barley but still have time to decide whether to sow corn, which have been generating losses of more than $50 per ton for producers.


Feb 21 - Japan's MAFF tenders for 116k mt US, Canadian and Australian wheat ( AgriCensus )

- Japan's agriculture ministry has issued an international tender to buy 115,921 mt of US, Canadian, and Australian wheat for loading in March-May, an official note published by the ministry showed Tuesday. The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is tendering for 30,435 mt of US hard red winter wheat. MAFF was also seeking two cargoes of Canadian western red spring wheat with 13.5% protein in the volume of 51,586 mt.
The wheat is for shipment from US and Canadian ports between March 21 and April 20.

- In addition to the US and Canadian cargoes, Japan's MAFF is inviting offers for 33,900 mt of Australian standard white wheat to be loaded between May 1 and May 31.

- The tender is set to take place Thursday, February 22, between 1345 and 1430 local time.
In its previous tender, which closed on February 15, Japan's agriculture ministry booked 115,035 mt of US, Canadian, and Australian wheat for loading in March-April.


Feb 21 - Brazil soybean production view cut as crop tour progresses - Agroconsult
Brazil's 2023/2024 soybean crop estimate has been reduced to 152.2 million metric tons from the previous estimate of 153.8 million tons, agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult said, on Tuesday, citing adverse crop weather in key producing states. Agroconsult, which began a tour of Brazil's main soy producing regions 33 days ago, said the expedition has so far covered almost 30,000 kilometers, representing 60% of the areas it intends to survey.

Feb 21 - US exporters losing battle for domestic soybeans to expanding crush - Braun
Over the last decade or so, annual U.S. soybean use was often split somewhat evenly between exports and domestic processing, though the split is unusually unbalanced this year as exports slip and crush increases. Early government estimates show a potential record 2024 U.S. soybean crop allowing for bigger exports in the 2024-25 marketing year starting Sept. 1, but the total use allocations of exports and crush are expected to be very similar to 2023-24, despite heavier supplies.


Feb 20 - Brazil's soybean harvest hits 32%, says AgRural
Brazil's 2023/24 soybean harvest had reached 32% of the planted area as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up 9 percentage points from the previous week and above the 25% seen at the same time a year earlier. AgRural said in a statement that work in the fields last week was driven by Mato Grosso and Parana, two major grain-producing states where harvesting is already nearing its end in some areas.

Feb 20 - Funds' bearish CBOT corn, soy views flirting with all-time highs: Braun
Speculators have been net sellers across U.S. grain and oilseed futures for nine consecutive weeks, coinciding with a heavy easing in prices, and fresh lows came in the following days amid bearish government supply outlooks through 2025. In the week ended Feb. 13, money managers’ combined net short position in Chicago corn and soybeans rose by nearly 21,000 contracts to 448,841 futures and options contracts. The record is 455,225 set in April 2019.


Feb 19 - Speculators continue to accumulate US corn, soybean shorts (CFTC-AgriCensus)

- Investors in the US corn and soybean markets continued to accumulate shorts in the week ending February 13, sending the net short in both contracts to new multi-year highs, a report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed late Friday. Corn and soybean futures fell in the week covered by the CFTC report after the US Department of Agriculture's World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report on February 8 showed small dips in the output forecast for both crops.

- Speculators increased shorts in two of the three US wheat markets while boosting longs in all the wheat contracts. Managed money investors in the corn market boosted shorts by 22,618 lots during the week covered by the report, bringing the total to 489,187, a 250-week high. Long positions increased by 6,021 lots to 174,846. The boost in shorts, coupled with the smaller rise in longs bolstered the net short by 16,597 lots to 314,341, a 251-week high.

 

- Open interest in the corn market jumped by 42,855 contracts to stand at 2,038,849, an 86-week high.
The same dynamic was at work in the soybean market where investors increased short positions by 8,880 lots, bringing the total to 183,548, a 246-week high.

- Soybean long positions held by managed money investors rose by 4,680 lots to 49,048. The advance in shorts together small gain in longs, led to a 4,200-lot increase in the net short to 134,500, the highest in 247 weeks.
- Open interest in soybeans rose by 13,790 contracts to 1,005,227, a 17-week high.

- The soybean oil market net short dropped by 8,785 lots to 35,440, while the soybean meal net short surged by 13,002 lots to 27,592, a 121-week high.

- Speculators in the Chicago wheat market, the most active US wheat contract, reduced short positions by 6,851 lots to 135,003. Long positions jumped by 4,215 lots, bringing the total to 79,331 contracts, a 10-week high. The decline in shorts and the increase in longs trimmed the net short by 11,066 lots to 55,672, a 27-week low. Investors in the Kansas wheat contract increased short positions by 4,701 lots, bringing the total to 81,825, an 11-week high. Speculators boosted the number of longs they held by 1,690 lots, which sent the total to 45,417. The gain in shorts coupled with the smaller rise in longs boosted the net short by 3,011 lots to 36,408.

- The Minneapolis wheat contract posted a 96-lot gain in shorts, bringing the total to 31,525. The number of longs climbed by 1,170 lots to 6,693, the highest level in 27 weeks.
The rise in shorts and the bigger advance in longs led to a 1,074-lot decrease in the net short, leaving it at 24,832, an 18-week low.


Feb 19 - Brazil's biggest farm coop grapples with surging grain inventories
Brazil's largest farm cooperative entered 2024 with grain stocks over 50% higher than in 2023 driven by a bumper crop last season and sluggish farmer selling, Coamo's President Airton Galinari said late on Thursday. The situation reinforces that supply pressure could continue to weigh on grain prices and dampen farmer sentiment in Brazil, the world's biggest soybean exporter and producer and a major corn exporter.

Feb 19 - Weather damages only 1-2% of Ukraine 2024 winter wheat crop, ministry says
Only 1-2% of the Ukrainian winter wheat crop will not survive the current winter, the agriculture ministry said on Sunday, citing data from scientists. Winter wheat accounts for more than 95% of Ukraine's overall wheat output. During winter, up to 7% of the winter sowing area usually dies, mainly due to heavy frosts and ice crust on fields, but the winter has been milder this year.


Feb 16 - Ukraine Weekly SPIKE_MARKET report

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb @144$
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb-birch @142$
· DAP corn Mon. Italy, feb-apr @203€->202€
· wheat furs. DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb-berez @151$
· sunflower (oil 47%) DAP Sh. Bulgaria, Feb-berez @445$->435$

- Ukraine:
· A significant reduction in the cost of railway logistics in Europe in February by 30% relative to the rates in December opens up additional opportunities for the export of Ukrainian agricultural products by rail through the western borders of Ukraine and Europe.
· Low cultivation efficiency and complex conditions of the world corn market make agricultural producers reduce corn sowing. One of the largest agricultural holdings in Ukraine, Epicenter Agro, refused to sow corn in the 2024/25 season in favor of oilseeds - soybeans and sunflower.
- World:
· The U.S. hosted the Agricultural Forum, which added an additional impetus to lower world prices for grain and oilseeds due to the optimistic forecast for crops of corn, wheat and soybeans in the U.S. for the 2024 harvest.
· The Agricultural Forum predicts an increase in residues in the US in the 2024/25 season compared to the 2023/24 season: corn +16%; soybean +38%; wheat +16%.

- Corn trading is gradually slowing down against the backdrop of a significant price decline. Lower corn prices at seaports increased the competitiveness of its sales across Ukraine's western borders with Europe. Buyers at seaports were looking for deals below $140 with delivery in March. You could sell corn on the western border at a price of 120€ to 125€ with DAP delivery to the border.

- Wheat prices move confidently towards below $150. The premium for feed wheat with a protein of at least 10.5% is 3-4$. Food wheat premiums are lowered amid discussions about the prospects and expectations of a new crop.

- The Ministry of Economy has begun issuing the first licenses for sunflower export under the simplified system. In the direction of Bulgaria, sunflower could be sold at prices from 420$ to 425$ with a premium for oil content above 44% for raw materials. Export duty for sunflower in the direction of Europe was reduced to 1.8% of the export price. Domestic demand from factories in Ukraine has coverage for the next few months. It was possible to sell sunflower for domestic processing at a price from 320$ to 340$ without VAT.

- Soybean prices have decreased in all directions to 10$ per ton depending on the specific direction.


Feb 16 - Russia's wheat production in 2024/25 may exceed last year’s figures (AgriCensus)

Local analysts continue to raise 2024/25 Russia’s wheat crop forecast amid persisting favorable weather conditions for winter wheat development.

Wheat harvest estimates now exceed the current year's figure of 92.8 million mt rising to 93.6 million mt, which would be the second-largest harvest in history after 2022, when 105 million mt were harvested. The winter wheat harvest in 2024 is estimated at 67.7 million mt versus 63.8 million mt in 2023, while the spring wheat harvest is expected to be 25.9 million mt versus 28.9 million mt a year earlier.

Weather conditions for the new harvest have remained favorable over the past few months, resulting winter crop conditions that are above average for this period. Weather models are forecasting mild temperatures in most winter crop-growing regions over the coming weeks.

Thus, analysts believe that in the absence of sudden temperature rises and serious frosts, the prospects for a new grain harvest in Russia remain good.


Feb 16 - US farmers to plant less corn and more soy in 2024 as prices fall
U.S. farmers will plant less corn and more soybeans in 2024 than they did a year earlier with prices of both commodities hovering around three-year lows, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Thursday. As the world's supplies of corn and soy increase after years of tightness during the COVID-19 pandemic and start of the Ukraine war, farmers have few good options to turn a profit in 2024 and farm incomes are forecast to fall sharply for a second consecutive year.

Feb 16 - Ukraine 2024 grain, oilseed crop may fall 15-20%, says UCAB business association
The combined Ukrainian grain and oilseed harvest may fall 15% to 20% in 2024 because of A smaller sowing area, the Kyiv-based UCAB business association said on Thursday. Ukraine is a major global grain and oilseeds producer but its harvests have decreased since Russia invaded and occupied significant swathes of territory.

Feb 15 - UK and Japan slip into recession (Reuters)

- Britain's economy fell into a recession in the second half of 2023, a tough backdrop for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak who has promised to boost growth ahead of an election expected later this year. The GDP contracted by a worse-than-expected 0.3% in the three months to December, official data showed.

- Britain is not alone. Japan also slipped into a recession at the end of last year, losing its title as the world's third-biggest economy to Germany and raising doubts about when the central bank would begin to exit its ultra-loose monetary policy. The GDP fell an annualized 0.4% in the October-December period.

 

 

Feb 15 - FranceAgriMer raises 2023/24 soft wheat export forecast outside EU to 10.25m mt (AgriCensus)

- France's state-backed farm agency FranceAgriMer has increased its forecast for 2023/24 soft wheat exports outside the European Union (EU) in its monthly outlook published on February 14. According to the monthly report, FranceAgriMer raised the forecast for commercial exports to countries outside the EU by 150,000 mt to 10.25 million mt, a volume some 100,000 mt above the 10.15 million mt exported in 2022/23.

- FranceAgriMer also lowered its forecast for exports to EU member states in 2023/24 to 6.32 million mt from the previous estimate of 6.55 million mt, representing a 1.2% decrease in year-on-year exports to EU member states. The farm agency said its estimates for wheat exports outside of the EU were raised on higher expectations for Morocco and China. At the same time, estimates for exports within the EU were lowered due to greater competition from the Black Sea into Southern Europe. The total volume of exports was also lowered to 16.67 million mt from 16.76 million mt a month ago.

The figure is just 0.1% above exports in the 2022/23 marketing year.

- According to data from the European Commission, France exported 4.61 million mt of wheat between July 1, 2023, and February 2, 2024, with total wheat exports expected at 16.98 million mt, up 0.1% from 2022/23. Estimates for French soft wheat ending stocks in 2023/24 were marginally higher at 3.49 million mt, but still represented a 37.1% increase in stocks from the 2.55 million mt held in the 2022/23 season.
- French durum export estimates within the EU were lowered slightly to 730,000 mt, 10,000 mt lower than the previous estimate, while estimates for exports outside of the EU were unchanged at 130,000 mt. The latest estimates reflect a year-on-year decline of 8.6% from the 798,000 mt of French durum exports within the bloc for 2022/23, but a year-on-year increase in exports outside the EU of 7.4% from 121,000 mt in 2022/23. Expectations for ending stocks of durum wheat were reduced from the previous estimate to 118,000 mt, 27.4% below the 162,000 mt held in the 2022/23 season.

- The agency slightly lowered its forecast for barley exports outside the EU at 3.13 million mt, or 1.4% below last year. The intra-EU barley export forecast was unchanged at 2.9 million mt, a 6.8% year-on-year decrease compared with the 2022/23 season. While the agency expected exports from France to Spain and Portugal to decrease, it anticipated increased exports to Germany.

- FranceAgriMer decreased its forecast for French corn exports in 2023/24 to countries outside the EU by 20,000 mt on the month to 350,000 mt. Additionally, exports to the EU were slightly decreased to 3.51 million mt, from previous estimates of 3.52 million mt, a 5.8% increase in volumes exported to the EU in 2022/23. Corn ending stocks were also raised on month and are expected at 2.37 million mt, up 43% from the 1.65 million mt held in the 2022/23 marketing year.


Feb 15 - Abundant rains lift Argentina soy, corn crops
Plentiful rains in recent days across Argentina's main growing regions have provided much-needed relief to the country's soy and corn crops, which had been punished by a heat wave and dry weather in the weeks before, the Rosario grains exchange said on Wednesday. The South American nation, a top exporter of both crops, is expected to bring in 52 million metric tons of soy and a record 59 million tons of corn in the season, the exchange estimates.

Feb 14 - Ukraine Corn area to drop further in Ukraine for 2024, soybeans rise: ministry

- Ukrainian producers are expected to cut further the area planted with corn but continue to increase those with oilseeds, especially soybeans and barley, a Ukrainian agriculture ministry survey showed Tuesday. According to the survey, up to 70% of farmers interviewed plan to increase the areas planted with soybeans, which is equivalent to around a 21% increase compared with the 2023 year spring campaign.

In 2023, the industry was also estimating an increase in soybeans, however, according to official agriculture ministry data, the planting was done on 97% of the planned areas with almost 1.8 million ha given to soybeans.

That was still almost a 19% increase compared with the soybean planted area seen in 2022.

- In addition to soybeans, farmers continue to prioritize the whole oilseeds sector, with the expectation that the fields planted with oilseeds will increase by 11% year on year. Farmers said they also are considering increasing the areas planted with spring rapeseeds by 24%, spring barley by up to 7%, and spring wheat by 2%. In 2023, farmers planted 822,000 ha with spring barley – 79% of the planned areas and almost a 21% drop compared to areas completed in 2022.

- The area planted with spring wheat in 2023 was seen at 280,000 ha, almost in line with the result seen in 2022.

- No information about the areas planted with spring rapeseed in 2023 was available, thus Agricensus understands it was too small to report, as most of the rapeseed production in Ukraine comes from winter plantings.

- Meanwhile, the areas planted with corn are projected to drop further by around 9% in 2024. The industry expects this, as the profitability of growing corn is dropping along with the prices for that commodity.
"Now corn cultivation is unprofitable, wheat is somewhere around zero and oil crops profit is at low levels,” a local analyst said. In 2023, the areas planted with corn were slightly above 4 million ha, which was 112% of the initial ministry plan but also almost a 7% drop compared with what was sown in 2022.

- In terms of sunflower seeds, the Ukrainian farmers have not yet decided if they will cut the area planted with this crop, but it cannot be excluded. In the spring campaign of 2023, farmers planted 5.3 million ha with sunflower seeds, which was 94% of the plan, but also only a 6% drop compared to 2022.

Ukraine is still unable to continue planting on up to 25% of its territories, as they are still under Russian occupation or are too close to the front lines.


Feb 14 - France cuts winter grain area estimates after rain-hit planting
France's farm ministry on Tuesday reduced its estimates of winter grain sowing, with the soft wheat area seen at its second lowest in 30 years, after heavy rain disrupted field work in the European Union's biggest crop producer. Difficult sowing conditions in France and other parts of western Europe have raised early doubts about this year's harvest, though large stocks in Europe and Russia have kept grain prices under pressure.

Feb 14 - Ukraine's 2024 corn area seen down 9% y/y – survey
Farmers in Ukraine, a major global corn grower and exporter, are expected to reduce the area sown with corn by 9% year-on-year in 2024, a survey compiled by the country's agriculture ministry showed on Tuesday. The survey, released to Reuters before its official publication by the ministry, said the overall spring sowing area could fall by about 500,000 hectares this year, or by 3.7%.


Feb 13 - Brazil second-corn output forecast raised as ideal sowing window widened, AgRural says
Brazil's 2023/24 second-corn production projection was raised by nearly 5 million metric tons to 91.2 million tons from 86.3 million tons, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, citing evidence of farmers planting an area larger than initially estimated. Brazil's second-corn is sowed after soybeans are harvested in the same fields, and an acceleration of the soy cycle changed the consultancy's expectations in relation to the second-corn crop, AgRural said.

Feb 13 - Farmers of southern Ukraine begin 2024 grain sowing
Farmers in southern Ukraine have started spring grain sowing, planting the first hectares of spring barley, producers said over the weekend. Farmers in the southern Odesa, Mykolaiv and Kherson regions traditionally start sowing in the second half of February if weather conditions are favourable.


Feb 13 - Egypt's GASC issues rare corn tender for March-April shipment (AgriCensus)

- Egypt’s state grain importer has announced a rare tender for optional origin yellow corn for March-April shipment, trade sources said over the weekend.
The General Authority Supply Commodities (GASC) is looking for at least 50,000 mt of yellow corn to be shipped within the March 15-25 shipment window and March 26- April 5 dates. GASC has asked for offers to be placed on an FOB basis, with payment within 180 days or 270 days of the letter of credit opening, at the buyer’s option.

The tender is set to close on February 13.

Egypt is among the world’s biggest corn importers, yet it rarely buys the grain via state tenders. Its last successful purchase was made a year ago on January 19, 2023, when it booked 50,000 mt of Romanian-origin feed corn from Ameropa at $339/mt CIF Egypt for February 10-25 shipment. Data from the Agricensus Export Dashboard shows that up to 39% of the country's corn imports in 2023 were sourced from Ukraine, closely followed by Brazil (28%) and Argentina (22%).


Feb 12 - EU cattle prices move higher as supplies tighten (IHSmarkit)

European cattle prices have edged up again over the past week, maintaining the generally firmer tone seen since the start of the year.

Prices are continuing to rise for cull cows, where low levels of supply are coinciding with an upturn in demand from the manufacturing beef sector.

But all categories other than heifers have seen an increase over the past week, as market focus reverts to the fundamental issue of low cattle numbers.

In the week ending 4 February, the EU’s overall benchmark price for A/C/Z R3 cattle was €499.10 per 100kg, up 0.5% w/w. A continuation of this trend next week would push the price back over €500 for the first time in nine months.

The average price for young bulls aged 12-24 months (A-R3) rose by 0.5% to €502.1 per 100kg, while steer (C-R3) prices gained a further 0.6% to €517.0 per 100kg. Cull cow (D-O3) prices have now risen by more than 4% since the start of December. They gained a further 0.6% over the past week, rising to €393.6 per 100kg.


Feb 12  - Ukraine plans same 2024 sowing area as 2023, has concerns on wheat quality - minister
Ukraine expects its 2024 spring sowing area to be the same as last year, though it could see a slight decrease in the worst case scenario, Agriculture Minister Mykola Solsky told Reuters on Friday. Ukraine is a major global grain and oilseeds producer but its harvests have decreased since Russia invaded and occupied significant swathes of territory. The war, now in its 24th month and with no end in sight, has driven up global grain prices and disrupted supplies, especially to poorer countries.

Feb 12  - Shrinking Brazilian soy harvest balanced by creep-up of prior crop
Top exporter Brazil’s soybean harvest will be smaller than originally thought after excessive heat and dryness clipped yields in key growing areas, but much of the recent crop cuts has been offset by stealthy expansions in last year’s output. This trend with previous harvests has been ongoing for seven years, a span that contains both great and poor crops, and it likely reflects that demand, particularly exports, has been pushing maximum limits imposed by prior supply assumptions.


Feb 10 - Black Sea sunoil seeks alternative routes as Asian demand falters (AgriCensus)

- Black Sea sellers of sunoil are being forced to adjust their trade flows and look for new export markets, after demand from key Asia-based importing nations has dried up amid high stocks, national holidays and increased competition. One of the biggest importers, China, has reported high stocks of sunflower oil, putting pressure on demand during a national holiday period, while India has increased its purchases of sunflower oil from Argentina in a bid to minimize the supply disruption risks associated with the purchase of Black Sea sunflower oil. Exporters in both Russia and Ukraine, the two largest producers and exporters in the world, have been exposed to increased maritime risk in the Black Sea and now in the Red Sea as well.

- That has increased costs in the key transit route connecting them to the major destination markets, and made Black Sea sunflower oil uncompetitive on price and complicated logistics. According to the Indian solvents association, SEA, between November 1, 2023 and January 31, 2024, India bought 119,432 mt of Argentine sunflower oil, more than 70% higher than the same period of the previous year.

- Even though Argentinean oil is inferior in quality and quantity to Black Sea oil, Indian buyers at this stage have shown a preference for it, bolstered by worries over potential delays to logistics and increased costs.
“India is buying Argentine origin, but not more than Black Sea sunflower oil,” one trader based in India told Agricensus, with a second source saying it was a “good advantage for Argentina.”

This is due to the logistics component, the risks prevailing in the Black Sea region and the Red Sea, as well as the lower cost of the South American product.
The cost of freight from Argentina to India is on average 20% lower than freight from the Black Sea region and, according to estimates from various sources, is $83-90 CIF India. At the same time, the cost of freighting sunflower oil from the Black Sea region to India varies between $100-120 CIF India, according to various estimates from market sources. In addition, Argentine sunflower oil is on average $20/mt more expensive than Black Sea oil.

- This week, trades were heard for Argentine sunflower oil at $910/mt CIF India for delivery in February and $900/mt for delivery in March-April, while sunflower oil from the Black Sea region is offered at prices in the range of $920-940/mt CIF India, depending on the month supplies. And don't forget about soybean oil - which Indian importers will turn to as an alternative product when prices allow - given the narrowing spread between the two oils, it is becoming more attractive and may play into the dynamic.

- According to Agricensus monitoring data, soybean oil for delivery in April is offered at $920/mt CNF India, while sunflower oil for delivery in February-March is offered at $940/mt CIF India. Chinese buyers have not been active for more than a month, as sunflower oil stocks in the country - although declining week-on-week remain still high compared to the previous season and were estimated by Chinese sources at 340,000 mt at the end of January 2024.

Closer to home

- The decrease in sales of Black Sea sunflower oil to Asian countries has caused an increase in supplies of Ukrainian and Russian sunflower oil into local destination markets like Turkey for both origins, and into EU countries for Ukrainian supply. High offers from both countries are increasing competition for the Turkish market and putting even more pressure on prices in a race to the bottom that may keep buyers out as the anticipate further falls. Over the past month, prices for sunflower oil basis CIF Mersin have fallen by an average of $35-40/mt, or 4.5%.

- Offer levels are $860-865/mt CIF Mersin for delivery in March, while buyers have the opportunity to choose cheaper offers and have gradually reduced prices to $845-850/mt CIF Mersin, sharpening competition between the Black Sea rivals.
“We are seeing quite a lot of cheaper Russian offers for delivery in March, so Ukrainian sellers should think about offer prices,” said one Turkish broker. At the same time, Turkish demand is not able to absorb all the proposed volumes, given that February is almost completely covered, and March is more than half covered.

- European demand is also limited in anticipation of lower prices.
“Almost no one is buying. We mainly see sellers of sunflower oil, but a very limited number of buyers,” said the Bulgarian broker.


Feb 09 - Dairy Price Update: European price declines slow (IHSmarkit)

- The EU butter average crept up 0.1% to €5,378/t
- WMP demand is weak with most production only taking place to meet orders
- Raw milk collections continue to run noticeably below year-ago levels

Following last week’s downward movements, European dairy markets have largely been more stable this week, with WMP and whey being the exceptions. Raw milk collections continue to run noticeably below year-ago levels, with German collections over 2% down.

The EU Commission, whey price gained back last week’s loss, put it at a similar level to a fortnight ago at €848/metric ton.

The WMP price lost 2.1% to €3,583/t, its lowest level since mid-November.
Meanwhile, the SMP price lost 0.5%, a slightly slower rate than was observed last week, to €2,505/t, its lowest since early October.
Both of these movements contrast trends at the GDT, where the WMP price added 3.4% and the SMP price increased 4.6%.

SMP interest from local buyers has increased, with a small increase in international orders.

WMP demand is weak with most production only taking place to meet orders. With the ongoing Suez Canal stoppage, Europe struggles to be an attractive seller to Asian buyers.

The EU butter average crept up 0.1% to €5,378/t, leaving it to carry a 13% y/y premium.

The Edam price was firmer than last week, adding 0.2% to €4,272, while the Emmental price lost 0.8% to €6,027/t. Interest in cheese purchases has taken a notable increase over the past week.

Price movement within the butter and cheese industry continues to be largely driven by changes in supply rather than demand.


Feb 09 - Ukraine Agri SPIKE_MARKET weekly report

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb @149$->148$
· wheat furs. DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb @158$-157$
· rape NE-GMO ISCC DAP sh. Germany, Feb-Berez @407€

- Ukraine:
· As of 08.02, almost 320 thousand hectares of corn or almost 2 million tons of crop have not been harvested in the fields of Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
· USDA in February forecasts an increase in Ukrainian wheat exports in 2023/24 to 15 million tons against last assessment of 14 million tons.
· USDA in February forecast an increase in Ukrainian corn exports in 2023/24 to 23 million tons against a previous estimate of 21 million tons.
- World:
· USDA in February forecasts a decrease in world wheat residues by the end of 2023/24 to 259.44 million tons against a previous estimate of 260.48 million tons.
· USDA in February forecasts a reduction in global corn residues by the end of 2023/24 to 322.06 million tons against a previous estimate of 324.02 million tons.

- Corn prices continue to decline throughout the supply chain. Buyers are willing to consider offers at 202$ CIF for Italy and 203$ CIF for Spain. Most of them avoid offers in large volumes, including panamaxes (50-60 thousand tons), or ask for a discount for panamax up to $ 3 compared to prices when supplying ships with a class of hand (25-30 thousand tons).
Prices in the Ukrainian ports remain at 144-148$ for fast delivery within 1-2 weeks. Buyers' prices for the period March-April can be reduced to $ 135-140 due to the fall in global prices and a complex external situation, which is saturated with offers.
Ground transport corn is traded at 185-190€ with delivery to Italy in April-August.

- Wheat prices at ports decreased by 3-5$ per ton compared to last week. The limited demand of traders to cover the previous expensive sales and the uncertainty of further marketing in the foreign market at the "falling" market reduce the volume of wheat trade towards the ports. For food wheat in ports paid 173-175$ at delivery within 2 weeks. Prices of forage were traded at 20$ per ton below the price of food wheat.
Wheat of the new crop in the direction of Italy is traded at 205-210€ with delivery of cars/coaches to Northern Italy by protein content of 11% and delivery in August-September.

- Sunflower prices continue to be under pressure from the offer and decreased by 10-20$ per ton compared to last week's prices. The market expects simplification of procedures for obtaining export licenses in the direction of Bulgaria.

- Soybean buyers continue to reduce prices by $10 compared to last week. Consolidation in the foreign market before the New Year holidays in China and supply pressure lead to a decrease in world soybean prices.


Feb 09 - Brazil farmer bankruptcy filings worry global grain traders
Brazilian grain exporters lobby Anec on Thursday warned it was concerned about a rise in farmer bankruptcy filings in the country, adding a recent increase in cases potentially compromises the execution of grain contracts. The rise in farmer bankruptcy cases, which may affect delivery of committed grains throughout the season, may also hamper traders' ability to complete their export programs, Anec said.

Feb 09 - Palm oil buyers switch to cheaper rival oils, hampering price recovery
The rebound in palm oil prices is likely to be capped by abundant supplies of rival soyoil and sunflower oil, "soft" oils that are available at discounts to tropical palm oil for the first time in more than a year. Benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures have risen nearly 5% in 2024 after losing 11% last year.


Feb 09 - Grain Gates overtakes RIF as Russia's biggest exporter in new quota (AgriCensus)

- The Moscow-headquartered grain exporter Grain Gates has secured the bulk of the export quota allocations announced by the Russian government on Thursday, overtaking the long-term leader in the space, the trading house RIF, according to an official document seen by Agricensus. The government typically introduces quotas to regulate the pace of exports through the later stages of the marketing year, with the allowance typically reflecting the proportion of exports the company has handled in the year to date. However, in a change to the process that has been used in recent years, the Russian government has allocated 90% of the 24 million mt grain quota for the period from February 15 until June 30.

- That volume, equating to 21.6 million mt, has been handed out between the various exporters active during the marketing year, and the biggest volume was awarded to Grain Gates, a company that is affiliated with Demetra Holding. The volume awarded exceeds 4.2 million mt, or around 19.4% of the total quota.

- The trading house RIF, a company that is affiliated with Dubai-based trader Grain Flower, and was previously known as GTCS, came in second place in the allocation with 3.97 million mt of grains allowed for export. The quota is divided between the exporters based on historical results, meaning that the volume received is proportional to the share of the export company in the first half of the marketing year. That means that, for the first time in around ten years, the previous number one exporting company RIF has been overtaken by Grain Gates, which is now in first place.

- Aston remained in the same third place on the list of Russia's biggest exporters, with almost 2.2 million mt of grain quota, followed by MZK Export, a company that was formed from the forrmer-Viterra team left in Russia after the country invaded neighboring Ukraine in February 2022.

- MZK was allocated 1.3 million mt, or 6% of the awarded volume. Finally, OZK Trading, a company owned partly by the Russian state and the same Demetra holding company that owns Grain Gates, closed out the five biggest exporters list with a 985,748 mt quota.

That means that the first five biggest exporters remain the same as were seen last year, with only a change in leadership, and around 58% - or 12.6 million mt distributed between the five. The remaining 10%, amounting to around 3 million mt, will serve as a reserve, with the largest exporters in the list able to apply to access more volume in the event that they manage to export their entire quota before the marketing year-end.

Multinational traders remain on the list, with Cofco and Louis Dreyfus awarded quotas - Dreyfus appearing in sixteenth place with 170,241 mt, and Cofco down in 161st place with just under 4,300 mt. Last year, Dreyfus was in eighth place with an allocation of 587,000 mt, while Cofco was 59th with 43,276 mt.


Feb 08 - Abundant rain seen bringing relief to Argentina's soybean, corn crops
Argentina's main farmland will receive significant rainfall over the next few days, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BdeC) announced on Wednesday, adding this should boost the country's current soybean and corn crops. In recent weeks, Argentina's top agricultural areas have experienced mostly dry conditions and high temperatures during the Southern Hemisphere summer.

Feb 08 - Column: US farm exports hit three-year low in 2023 as China slows buying -Braun
U.S. exports of agricultural and related products reached a value of $191 billion in 2023, down 10% from 2022’s record as both commodity prices and shipment volumes declined. That marks a three-year low though is similar to the 2021 levels, and it reflects competition from key suppliers, particularly when it comes to satisfying Chinese demand.


Feb 07 - French durum output could drop to new low as sowing drags
French production of durum wheat could fall again this year to a new low this century as time runs out for planting held over from autumn and early field conditions are mixed, crop institute Arvalis said on Tuesday. France harvested its smallest crop since 1997 last year at 1.28 million metric tons as a sharp decline in planting continued. That contributed to a poor crop in Europe, in turn leading Italian buyers to turn to Turkish supplies.

Feb 07 - Cocoa prices seen slipping from recent peaks by end-2024
London cocoa prices are expected to slip back from record highs but still end the year with an annual gain of nearly 10% as the global market's supply deficit persists, a Reuters poll of nine traders and analysts showed on Tuesday. Prices were seen ending 2024 at 3,700 pounds a metric ton, down 10.4% from Monday's close but 9.5% higher than levels seen at the end of 2023, according to the poll's median forecast.


Feb 06 - South American soybean oil hits more than 3-year lows amid sluggish demand, lower futures (IHSmarkit)

- FOB Up River, FOB Paranaguá values slide below $800 per metric ton
- Weak basis levels and bumper soybean crop add pressure
- Argentina’s soybean harvest expected to more than double in 2023-24

South American soybean oil spot prices slid below $800 per metric ton for the first time since September 2020, under pressure from falling Chicago Board of Trade futures contracts and sluggish demand in key destinations.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the Argentinian FOB Up River outright price for March dates at $792.12/t on Feb. 2, down 6.7% since the start of 2024 -- a level not seen for a front-month loading shipment since Sept. 11, 2020.

A similar trend was seen for the Brazilian FOB Paranaguá market, where the price for March shipments reached $798.94/t on Feb. 2, or 8.4% lower so far in 2024, and the lowest for a spot value since Sept. 1, 2020.

Both assessments have dropped more than $1,000/t from a $1,900/t peak seen in April 2022, when the global vegetable oils market was being supported by the initial impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Indonesian palm oil export restrictions.

FOB spot prices for soybean oil in South America are currently tracking the continuous drops seen in CBOT futures. The front-month March (H) contract on the CBOT has fallen by 7% year-to-date as of Feb. 2.
"Soybean oil is down on CBOT as a function of demand deficit for biofuel blending, with competing feedstock prices consistently cheaper," Anil Kumar Bagani, commodity research head at edible oil brokerage Sunvin Group, said. He pointed out that a "drastic fall" in US D4 RIN prices had reduced the subsidy for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock.


Feb 06 - Brazil second corn planting at fastest pace since records began in 2013 -AgRural
Brazilian farmers have sown 27% of the area expected to be planted with second corn in the center-south, marking the fastest pace for second corn planting since records began in 2013, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday. Sowing of Brazil's second corn, which represents about 75% of the national output in a given year, is up 11% from the previous week, according to AgRural data.

Feb 06 - Brazil farmer selling lags as soy sinks in Chicago - Safras
The sale of Brazil's new soybean crop was estimated at 31.9% of the production projected for the country, 12.6 percentage points below the historical average, according to consultancy Safras & Mercado on Monday. Safras blamed slow Brazilian farmer selling on growers hoping for a market rebound. "A drop in prices completely halted negotiations," said Safras soybean analyst Luiz Fernando Roque. "Growers have been hoarding soy as they awaited better prices that ended up not coming."


Feb 05 - European egg prices turn the corner (IHSmarkit)

European egg prices have risen over the past week, in a possible sign that the traditional spring upturn in demand has begun early.
The EU average price for Class A eggs in packing stations in the week ending 28 January was €228.13 ($246.00) per 100 kg, up by 1.2% on the previous week.

This was the first week-on-week increase since Christmas and takes the EU benchmark price to just 7.9% below the level seen this time last year.
Polish and Dutch prices both registered strong week-on-week gains, counteracting the weaker values seen in both France and Spain.

Prices are responding to increased retail and wholesale demand – a factor to which the relatively early date of the Easter festival this year may be contributing.

Supplies are flowing freely in most regions – in contrast with the avian flu-related problems faced last winter. But heightened demand for organic and free-range eggs is leading to localized shortages.

Feb 05 - Soybeans finish Friday with double-digit losses on demand doubts (IHSmarkit)

Soybean futures continued their decline on Friday (2 February) as poor demand for US soybeans weighed on the market. March soybeans finished down 14 3/4 cents at $11.88 1/2 per bushel.
For the week ended 30 January, managed money funds were net sellers of 16,000 soybean contracts, 3,000 soybean meal contracts, and 10,000 soybean oil contracts.

Brazilian export lineup data on 30 January indicated 7.3 million metric tons of soybeans and 1.5 million metric tons of soybean meal were on tap during February.

Funds sold a net 6,500 soybean contracts, 2,500 soybean meal contracts, and 3,500 soybean oil contracts, traders said.

For the week, March soybeans lost 1.7%, while soybean meal gained 2.2% and soybean oil was down 4.7%. The oil share decreased 1.7 percentage points to 38.5%, while crush margins increased 13 cents per bushel to 88 cents per bushel.


Feb 05 - Turkey to discuss 'new mechanism' for Ukraine Black Sea grain exports with Russia - minister
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan will discuss a new mechanism to allow Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin during his upcoming visit to Turkey, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Sunday. Putin is expected to visit Turkey on Feb. 12 to meet Erdogan, a Turkish official previously said, in what will be the Russian leader's first trip to a NATO ally since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Feb 05 - China to push development of high-yield crops, mechanise to raise food supply
China will boost the development of high-yielding crop varieties to raise production, state media reported on Saturday, citing a key rural policy document, as Beijing pushes for greater use of bio-technology and mechanisation in its food security measures. The world's largest grains importer reported a record corn crop last year and bumper harvests of other grains, but Beijing continues to strive for greater output and lower imports, particularly amid rising tensions with some trade partners, climate-related disasters and military conflicts.


Feb 02 - Ukraine Agri SPIKE_MARKET weekly report

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb @154$->152$
· wheat furs. DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb @162$->160$
· wheat furs. DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb-berez @160$->156$
· wheat fur.DAP Danube, Ukraine, Feb @6'850 UAH with VAT

- Ukraine:
· Exports in January amounted to: corn - 2.9 million tons, wheat - 1.5 million tons, barley - 290 thousand tons, soybeans - 312 thousand tons, rape - 320 thousand tons, sunflower - 36 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 525 thousand tons, soybean oil - 22 thousand tons, cake and meal - 421 thousand tons.
· The structure of exports by mode of transport in January: by sea transport 4.2 million tons; by river transport 1.1 million tons; by rail transport 685 thousand tons; by road - 139 thousand tons.
- Europe:
· Imports to the EU for the period from 01.07 to 28.01: wheat - 7.4 million tons (compared to 6.4 million tons last year), corn - 10.2 million tons (compared to 17.4 million tons), barley - 1.3 million tons (compared to 1.4 million tons), soybean - 6.8 million tons (compared to 6.5 million tons), rapeseed - 3.2 million tons (compared to 4.5 million tons), sunflower - 0.4 million tons (compared to 1.7 million tons).
· The share of Ukraine in the structure of European imports from 01.07 to 28.01 was: 68% wheat; 53% barley; 60% corn; 7.3% soybean; 65% rapeseed; 30% sunflower; 92% sunflower oil; 38% rapeseed oil; 35% soybean oil; 36% sunflower meal.

- Prices for corn have decreased in all directions. Corn was traded in the range of 205-208$ CIF Italy, Spain and Egypt.
Prices with delivery to Ukrainian ports adjusted to levels below $ 150 per ton and established at levels 145-148$. The reduction in corn prices was accompanied by a decrease in logistics rates of transportation in Ukraine, so the offer remained stable while reducing prices.
The European market was traded with rail or car delivery in the range of 190-197€ with delivery to Italy and 185-190€ with delivery to Germany. On the western border, prices fluctuated in the range of 130-135€ loaded into a euro train.

- Wheat prices gradually decreased for the whole grain complex. Wheat was traded in the markets of Europe in the range of 214-218$ CIF.
Prices at forage wheat ports varied between 155-160$, depending on the delivery period. Buyers were willing to pay extra for the prompt delivery to have time to close the old sales at a more favorable terms.

- Prices for sunflower in Ukraine remain under pressure from producers due to the increase in their supply volumes. Stocks in factories are increasing, and therefore the pace of purchases by processors is slowing down, leading to an increase in queues.
The market expects simplification of the procedure for obtaining export licenses for sunflower from Ukraine. At a time when processors in Bulgaria are faced with the risk of stopping the work of plants due to insufficient raw materials.

- Prices for sunflower oil in Bulgaria were traded in the range of 800-820 dollars per ton, which is 10 dollars less than last week.

- Soybean prices fell in all directions. The Turkish market began to bargain at prices at $ 500 and below soybeans. Soybean exports from Ukraine remain stable on average within 300-400 thousand tons per month.


Feb 02 - French farmers' union call for end of blockades as anger spreads in Europe
Two of France's main farming unions on Thursday urged protesters who have staged hundreds of tractor blockades across the country to go back home, after the government announced measures to try to quell the anger in a movement that has spread across Europe. While some local grievances vary, the unrest, also seen in Belgium, Portugal, Greece and Germany, has exposed tensions over the impact on farming of the EU's drive to tackle climate change, as well of opening the door to cheap Ukrainian imports to help Kyiv's war effort.

Feb 02 - Brazil 2023/2024 soybean crop forecast lowered to 150.35 mln T - StoneX
Brazilian farmers will harvest a soybean crop of 150.35 million metric tons in the 2023/2024 cycle, agribusiness consultancy Stonex said on Thursday. StoneX again cut the estimate for Brazilian soybean production citing weather issues. The new forecast is 1.6% lower than January's and 4.8% lower from last year's record output, StoneX said.

 

Feb 02 - Turkey sells 150,000 metric tons durum in export tender - traders
Turkish state grain board TMO is believed to have provisionally sold 150,000 metric tons of durum wheat in an export tender for the same volume on Thursday, European traders said. The highest price was assessed at $404.80 a ton FOB, traders said.

Feb 02 - Taiwan buys 89,650 metric tons US-origin milling wheat
The Taiwan Flour Millers' Association purchased an estimated 89,650 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender on Friday, European traders said. The purchase involved various wheat types for shipment from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast in two consignments.


Feb 01 - Indonesia sets CPO reference price for February at $806.40/mt (AgriCensus)

- The Indonesian government has raised the crude palm oil (CPO) reference price for February 1-29 to $806.40/mt from the previous $774.93/mt, a circular issued by the trade ministry showed Wednesday. The increase effectively raises the payable export levy and duty for CPO by one tier to $85/mt and $33/mt from $75/mt and $18/mt earlier based on the current export tax structure.

- Export taxes for other palm oil products will also increase correspondingly, making Indonesian palm oil exports more expensive.


Period Feb 1-29   Jan 16-31
CPO Ref Price $806.40/mt   $774.93/mt
Product Levy Duty Total Change Levy Duty Total
CPO 85 33 118 25 75 18 93
RBD Palm Olein 65 2 67 12 55 0 55
RBD Palm Oil 68 0 68 10 58 0 58
RBD Palm Stearin 55 0 55 10 45 0 45
Biodiesel 55 0 55 10 45 0 45


Selected palm oil products and corresponding export taxes

As reported by Fastmarkets last week, the new reference price will apply for the whole month of February instead of half of the month as per previous iterations, and follows earlier deliberations by the government to change the frequency of the CPO reference price revisions from biweekly to once a month.

The change also aligns Indonesia's CPO reference price revision frequency with neighbouring Malaysia, who had earlier set its reference price for February at MYR3571.39/mt ($755/mt), with the corresponding export tax for CPO at MYR285.71/mt ($60.42/mt) (1 USD= 4.729 ringgit).

Trade sources had also told Fastmarkets that the government was currently reviewing the formula for the reference price calculation to remove Rotterdam prices, though a decision has yet to be made.

The current formula uses a combination of CPO prices from Bursa Malaysia, ICDX and Rotterdam.

 

Feb 01 - Thai rice export volumes seen down 14.4% in 2024 on lower production
Thailand expects to export 7.5 million metric tons of rice in 2024, down 14.38% year-on-year, due to lower production and increased competition, the commerce ministry said. Rice production is expected to drop 5.87% in 2024, impacted by the El Nino weather phenomenon, the ministry said in a statement.


Feb 01 - EU plans curbs on Ukraine farm imports to calm angry farmers
The European Commission on Wednesday proposed measures to limit agricultural imports from Ukraine and offer greater flexibility on rules for fallow land in a bid to quell protests by angry farmers in France and other EU members. The Commission said it would extend the suspension of import duties on Ukrainian exports for another year to June 2025.

Feb 01 - Argentina farm regions set for heat wave, then scattered rains: grains exchange
Argentina's farm regions are set for a heat wave over the next week, followed by rains that will douse the northern, western and southern regions, but largely miss the center-east zone, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Wednesday. "The outlook will start with winds from the tropics, raising the temperature to above normal in most of the agricultural area," the exchange said in its weather report covering the first week of February.


Jan 31 - Farmer protests spread in Europe ahead of EU summit
French and Belgian farmers angry about rising costs, EU environmental policies and cheap food imports blocked highways and access roads to a major container port on Tuesday as the protests spread across Europe. In France, farmers, who have been protesting for over two weeks, stepped up their pressure on the government by blocking highways with their tractors near Paris and setting bales of hay ablaze to partly block access to Toulouse airport.

Jan 31 - Argentina wheat harvest ends up 24% y/y, low prices dent economic impact
Argentine farmers have closed the 2023/24 wheat campaign with a harvest of 15.1 metric tons, slightly lower than initially hoped for but up nearly a quarter versus the drought-hit previous season, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Tuesday. In a wrap-up to mark the end of the wheat season, the exchange said planting of the crop had been 5.9 million hectares (14.6 million acres), its lowest in the last five seasons due to dry weather last year that has since reversed with decent rains.


Jan 30 - EU raises 2023/24 wheat stocks outlook on increased supply
The European Commission on Monday raised its forecast for European Union stocks of common wheat, or soft wheat, at the end of the 2023/24 season as upward revisions to harvest production and imports boosted supply. In monthly supply and demand data for cereal and oilseed crops, the Commission increased its projection of EU soft wheat stocks at the end of 2023/24 to 19.1 million metric tons from 18.4 million forecast in December, though that was still below last season's 19.4 million tons.

Jan 30 - Brazil's soybean harvest hits 11%, says AgRural
Brazil's 2023/24 soybean harvest had reached 11% of the planted area as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up 5 percentage points from the previous week and above the 5% seen at the same time a year earlier. The week was marked by rains in several states, which slowed work in the fields especially in top grain producing state Mato Grosso but brought some relief to areas that had been grappling with high temperatures and lack of humidity, such as Parana.


Jan 29 - ADM postpones some exec bonuses amid accounting probe
Archer-Daniels-Midland will delay paying performance bonuses to some executives until its financial statements are completed and audited, according to a staff memo seen by Reuters. The delay, detailed in a memo sent to staff on Thursday, comes days after ADM sidelined its chief financial officer and brought in outside lawyers to launch an investigation into accounting practices last week.

Jan 29 - Funds continue cultivating massive CBOT grain, oilseed short - Braun
Speculators have built their most bearish-ever January view across U.S. grains and oilseeds, and the collective net short is among the largest on record, driven by further selling in soybeans and meal last week. Money managers’ combined net short across Chicago-traded corn, wheat, soybeans and soy products, plus Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat, totaled 554,019 futures and options contracts as of Jan. 23.


Jan 26 - Argentina cleared for the first time to export wheat to China (AgriCensus)

- Argentina's Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries announced Friday the country had taken the first steps towards paving the way for future wheat exports to China.
"In an important step for Argentine exports, the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC) included Argentine companies authorized to export wheat in the Online Quarantine Registration System of Establishments authorized to export vegetables, animals, and their products that enter China," a press release from the ministry read.

- Australia and Canada currently serve as the primary wheat suppliers to the Chinese market, contributing 5.7 million mt and 1.8 million mt, respectively, according to the release.

Despite the challenges of a drought in the previous campaign, Argentina is expected to export 3 million mt of wheat in 2023, and a total harvest of 15.5 million mt is expected for the 2023/24 campaign.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (Bage) said in a report Thursday that it currently sustains a production projection of 15.1 million mt for 2023/2024.

China is projected to import 12.5 million mt of wheat in 2023/24, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA)'s supply and demand estimates report predicted earlier this month.

Market participants Agricensus spoke to said no business has been done yet, and that the first shipment could take some time to occur


Jan 26 - Ukraine Agri SPIKE_MARKET weekly report.

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Sich-Feb @154$->150$
· DAP corn Danube, Ukraine, Jan-Feb @6'700 UAH with VAT
· DAP corn Mon-Sh. Italy Feb-Berez @220€
· wheat furs. DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jan-Feb @157$->156$
· rape NE-GMO ISCC DAP sh. Germany, Feb-Berez @415€

Ukraine:
· The share of Asian markets in Ukrainian exports was 18% since October 2023. Thanks to the Ukrainian Navy and the stable operation of the sea corridor, exporters and traders gained more confidence in the organization of shipments over longer distances, which sometimes take up to 40 days on the road.
· Military risks in the Red Sea have already affected the redistribution of Ukrainian export goods flows. Due to the growth of freight in the direction of Asia, the nearest sales markets are already feeling the pressure of Ukrainian exports. The cost of freight for the vessels of the class "Coster" and "Hendi" also has the potential for growth as a result.
World:
· Funds have a significant short position on corn and wheat. Manufacturers and the world have significant reserves, expecting a new crop from South America.

- Corn prices continue to decline along the entire supply chain, from farmers to final processors. Prices in the ports have decreased to the range from 148$ to 152$ depending on the delivery time. Many buyers remain cautious about purchasing because they still have unrealized stocks that were purchased at higher prices.
Prices of CIF in Spain for delivery in March-April amounted to about $ 212-214.

On the Italian market with the delivery in April-June, prices dropped to a level of 195€ to 200€. Processors in the European market have supplies to cover the needs by April.

- The wheat market continues to keep the premium in price for food wheat. For food wheat are willing to pay 25-30$ more than forage, and this difference depends on the quality of the product. Wheat prices mark a decrease throughout the supply chain. In particular, with delivery to the port of Odessa buyers buy forage wheat at levels from 152$ to 156$. The logistics award for delivery to the ports of the Danube is up to $ 10.
The first indicative prices for a new crop on the European market begin to appear. Sellers can sell 11% new crop wheat on the Italian market at a price that is 10€ higher than the prices of the current old crop.

- Prices for sunflower sharply adjusted and did not give sellers the opportunity to enjoy further growth. Prices with delivery to processing decreased to 1500 UAH with VAT (equivalent 35$ per ton without VAT). During the last week, manufacturers have switched their attention to the sale of sunflower, leaving the grain group unattended. A significant supply and logistics queues at processing plants added even more pressure to prices. The raw material coverage of the plants has improved significantly over the last week.

- Soybean prices remained unchanged in all directions. In the ports of soya traded up to 440-445$. The border was traded to the level of 370-375€ or equivalent of 410$ delivery in Ukrainian cars.


Jan 26 - Forecasts for Argentina's soy, corn crops up due to more rainfall
Argentina's current soybean and corn harvests were upwardly revised on Thursday, as expected yields from both key grains crops benefited from more rainfall. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange now sees soybeans from the 2023/24 harvesting season at 52.5 million metric tons, or up about 1% compared to the previous forecast.

Jan 26 - Fight brewing over Biden climate funds that help farmers in Republican-leaning states
An effort by Republican U.S. lawmakers to reallocate $18 billion in climate-friendly agriculture funding under President Joe Biden's signature climate law would shift money away from programs that primarily benefit farmers in Republican-leaning states, a Reuters analysis found. The Inflation Reduction Act money, earmarked for U.S. Department of Agriculture-designated "climate-smart" farm practices, is intended to support Biden's agriculture climate agenda, which relies heavily on storing carbon in the soil and lowering emissions through sustainable farming techniques.


Jan 25 - Angry French farmers block roads, spray manure at public building
Protesting farmers blocked several roads across France on Wednesday, set bales of hay alight and sprayed liquid manure at a local prefecture to press the government to loosen regulations and help protect them from cheap imports and rising costs. Farmers said the protests, with long lines of tractors snarling roads, would continue as long as their demands are not met, posing the first major challenge for new Prime Minister Gabriel Attal.

Jan 25 - India's corn supplies tightening on strong local demand - Louis Dreyfus exec
Strong domestic demand is tightening India's corn supplies, with the country's consumption of the animal feed ingredient seen growing by up to 2 million metric tons a year, a senior executive of global trading firm Louis Dreyfus said. India has been a key corn exporter in Asia, supplying buyers in Southeast Asia, but shipments have dwindled in recent years amid rising local consumption.


Jan 25 - Russia on course to smash records as it expands 2023/24 wheat exports (AgriCensus)

- Russian wheat exports have become more diversified through the first half of 2023/24 compared to the same period of the previous year, indicating that the country has retaken its status as the cheapest origin globally, while concerns over potential sanctions have dwindled, Agricensus analysis of export data shows. The shift in export destinations was driven by the price competitiveness of easily accessible Russian supplies amid bumper harvests, plus increased demand in several countries due to supply disruptions from rival suppliers.

- Russia has ended the first six months of the current season with a new record for wheat exports at the half way point of the marketing year, building on last year's biggest ever export figures and supplying more than 26 million mt to countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) bloc. That's 17%, or 3.8 million mt, more than a year ago at the same stage.

The number of countries to which Russia has supplied wheat has now reached 67 this season during the reporting period, compared to 57 a year earlier. Available statistics show that the top four consistently large export markets for Russian wheat including Turkey, Egypt, Iran, and Saudi Arabia - although all have reported decreased supplies versus the previous year as competition for Russian flows has increased from other destinations.
- Turkey retained its position as the main importer of Russian wheat in the first half of the 2023/24 season, purchasing 3.9 million mt, down 2.4% year-on-year.
- Egypt ranked second in the list of wheat importers, but imports of Russian wheat have fallen by 22%, or 0.8 million mt, year-on-year to 2.9 million mt.

On the contrary, the volumes shipped to Southeast Asian destinations have markedly increased in the first half of the marketing year, mainly due to Bangladesh, Indonesia, as well as Pakistan.
- Indonesia stepped into the top ten purchasing almost 1 million mt of wheat since the beginning of the season in July, compared to zero imports for the same period of the previous year.
- That is reflected in a sharp reduction in the pull for Australian and Argentinian wheat.

Despite complaints from some trade sources that they continue to face difficulties importing Russian origin, the data shows that more buyers still see it as the best option.
- A similar drift has affected Bangladesh's imports from Russia, with volumes up year-on-year.
- Moreover, supplies to some countries in North and South America and the Pacific region increased significantly or were resumed – Mexico and Brazil increased imports to 500,000 mt each.
- After a three-year break, shipments have also begun to Malaysia and, for the first time in four seasons, to Venezuela.
- Brazil imported a record volume of wheat from Russia during the first 6 months of 2023/24, mainly replenishing the supply gap left by Argentina during a production crisis.

However, Russia may face increased competition in maintaining its export pace to Brazil in the second half of the marketing year amid partial recovery production in Argentina.
- As for Mexico, Russia has previously exported large volumes of wheat to the country, but exports dwindled from 2019/20 to 2021/22. Russia returned 'in full force' to the Mexican market in 2022/23, exporting 600,000 mt, and is now on pace to set a new marketing year record in 2023/24 with more than 500,000 mt in the first 6 months.

Despite the greater distance from Russian ports to Western Hemisphere markets compared to other competitors, lower Russian export prices have also overcome the freight advantage of these exporters.
- Cheaper Russian wheat origin as well as the country's aggressive export drive have meant exports to North African and Sub-Saharan African countries grew over the same period.
- Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco, significant players in Nothern Africa’s wheat trade, continued to shift away from French and other European origins in favor of Russian wheat, as it has been often more affordable.

This has lead to a decline in French wheat exports to 5.6 million mt in 2023/24 from over 9 million mt in the previous year.
- Meanwhile, Ukraine, the main rival from the Black Sea region, is still down about 30% year-on-year due to challenges exporting to Africa and Asia from its deep seaports, giving a head start to Russian replacement.

Overall, in 2023/24, Russia is set to hit a new global export record at 51 million mt of wheat, up 3.5 million mt from the prior year. That comes as the country started the season with record carry-over stocks, along with another bumper crop and the volumes of wheat taken from the occupied Ukrainian territories, which allows to maintain the record export pace.


Jan 25 - Malaysian AM, PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil Unavailable

- Data for a.m. and p.m. Malaysian cash market prices for palm oil are unavailable due to a holiday.


Jan 24 - Accounting probe hits ADM as crop glut, lower margins point to tough 2024
An investigation into accounting practices in Archer-Daniels-Midland's Nutrition segment could not come at a worse time for the company as sinking crop prices look set to erode profit for its core grain trading and processing businesses this year. Before news of the accounting issues broke and sent ADM shares tumbling 24% on Monday, the biggest fall since 1929, according to the Center for Research in Security Prices, the company had been forecasting the Nutrition unit it has been expanding for much of the past decade would return to profit growth in 2024.

Jan 24 - China to encourage hog farmers to reduce capacity after price slump
China will "guide" farmers to reduce hog production capacity as it steps up regulation of the industry, the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday, after an aggressive expansion drive led to an oversupply of pigs and heavy losses. Big agribusinesses in the world's top pork producer havemodernised farms and expanded pig herds so rapidly in recent years that a downturn in demand led to plummeting hog prices, mounting losses, and rising debt last year.


Jan 23 - Argentina's 2023 soybean crush lowest level in 19 years (BCR AgriCensus)

- Argentina's soybean crush fell 29% in 2023 to 27 million mt, the lowest level since 2004, according to a report by the Rosario Grains Exchange (BCR).

In 2022, the country's crush volumes totaled 38 million mt.
With Argentina’s soybean production 56% lower year on year, the local vegoil industry suffered a severe blow, but imported soybeans limited losses, BCR said.
 
In 2023, more than 36% of crushing in Argentina was made with soybeans imported through the temporary import regime, a new record.
Under this regime, soybeans are imported for industrial processing and later products with a higher added value (oil, meal, biodiesel, glycerin, among others) are exported.
 “Soybean imports made it possible to reduce the idle capacity of the vegoil industry while helping to sustain the level of employment and support national exports,” BCR said.
 
- The idle capacity of 54% recorded last year was the highest in the history of Argentina's vegoil industry, but the figure would have jumped to around 70% without imports, BCR said.
Brazil increased its share in Argentina’s soybean imports from 9% in 2022 to 39% in 2023.
Soybeans imported from Paraguay, Argentina’s most frequent supplier, were also at record levels, according to the exchange.


Jan 23 - Chinese milk production increases 6.7% y/y, imports of WMP hit 9 year-low while cheese climbs to record-breaking high (IHSmarkit)

- In 2023, Chinese milk production increased by 6.7% y/y
- WMP imports for the year stood at 430,724 t, a 38.4% y/y drop, and the lowest volume since 2014
- The value of Chinese imports was at its lowest since 2020, at US$7.3 billion, a 17.7% y/y deficit.

In 2023, Chinese milk output totaled 41.97 million metric tons a 6.7% y/y increase, according to data from Chinese Statistics.

Meanwhile, in December, the Chinese consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.3% y/y, a decline which the milk consumer price outpaced at -0.9% y/y. However, food deflated by 2.0% y/y, meaning the milk price is falling slower than many other foods. The average price of meat fell 15.9% y/y, while egg prices are down 7.0%.

The Chinese population continues to decline, with the report saying: "By the end of 2023, the national population was 1,409.67 million (including the population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities and servicemen, but excluding residents of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and foreigners living in the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities), a decrease of 2.08 million over that at the end of 2022."

Improvements to the Chinese economy will drive the recovery in dairy demand, with per capita consumption expected to increase. It is expected that in 2024, total dairy demand within China will increase, but with domestic production up, import demand is unlikely to recover to 2021 or 2022 levels.

 

2023 trade results
During 2023, Chinese milk powder imports dropped 25.1% y/y to 7985,120 metric tons, the first time volumes have been below a million metric tons since 2018, according to China Customs data. Of the total milk powder imports, 430,724 t were of WMP, a 38.4% y/y drop and the lowest volume since 2014. SMP volumes ticked up compared to 2022 (+3.4% y/y) to 346,800, which, while above year-ago levels, is 18.6% down y/y.

New Zealand saw the most significant drop in WMP shipments, with volumes back 38.5% y/y, while Australia saw volumes increase 14.0% y/y. Imports from the Netherlands, Uruguay, and France fell by 16.9%, 82.4%, and 45.2% respectively. Volumes from Belarus increased by 24.3% y/y.

SMP imports from New Zealand increased 30.1% y/y, while in contrast to the WMP imports, volumes from Australia fell, recording an 11.1% y/y decline. Shipments from Belarus fell 4.4% y/y.

Fluid milk and cream imports fell 16.8% y/y to 813,664 t, the lowest volume since 2018. Meanwhile, yogurt volumes were at their lowest since 2016 at 21,236 t, a 10.0% y/y decline.

Whey imports grew 9.5% y/y to 663,038 t, with the growth weighted towards the year’s first half. Volumes during H1 were up almost a third y/y, while in H2, volumes trended down by 6.6% y/y.

Butter imports fell 8.7% y/y to 130,564 t, the lowest since 2020.

In contrast to the overall trend, cheese imports grew by 22.5% y/y to 178,186, the highest level on record, having beaten the prior record (2021) by 1.2%.

The value of Chinese imports was at its lowest since 2020, at US$7.3 billion, a 17.7% y/y deficit


Jan 23 - Output from Brazil's second corn crop expected to decline
Forecasters expect lower production from Brazil's second corn crop because of smaller planted area, lower investment by farmers and the intense El Niño weather pattern, which brought drought to central Brazil and excess rains to the south. According to a report by agribusiness consultancy Cogo on Monday, Brazil will reap 118.5 million metric tons of corn in the 2023/2024 crop year, down from an initial expectation of 129.6 million tons.

Jan 23 - Australia set to harvest bigger crops after rains defy El Nino
Australia is poised to produce much more wheat and other crops this year than previously thought after rainfall confounded expectations that an El Nino weather pattern would maintain dry and hot conditions, analysts and industry associations said. Australia is one of the world's biggest agricultural exporters, shipping goods from wheat and barley to cotton and beef.


Jan 22 - USDA confirms first big US soy sale to China since mid-December
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday confirmed private sales of 297,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China, the first soybean sales announcement under its daily reporting rules since Dec. 19 and the first to the world's top buyer of the oilseed since Dec. 15. The sales announcement came a day after U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack met with China's Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Tang Renjian.

Jan 22 - Funds step up short bets in CBOT corn, soy, meal off weighty USDA data
- Braun
Speculators eased concerns over global grain and oilseed inventories late last year, but their selling enthusiasm, especially in Chicago-traded corn, soybeans and soybean meal, has accelerated this month as U.S. government outlooks corroborate the supply comfort. Most-active CBOT corn futures shed 3.4% in the four-day trading week ended Jan. 16, driven by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s heavy corn supply outlook issued on Jan. 1


Jan 19 - Brazil's domestic prices fall with on hold demand and great supply (Conab-AgriCensus)

- Prices in Brazil's domestic soybean spot market have been on a sharp downward trend in 2024, as the market regulates an environment of lukewarm demand and ever greater supply.
Brazil’s FAS Paranaguá price fell from BRL147/bag ($496.95/mt) on January 2 to stand at BRL122/bag ($412.44/mt) on Thursday - a 17% decline.

- In the biggest producing state, Mato Grosso, the spot price based in Rondonópolis fell from BRL126/bag ($425.96/mt) to BRL108/bag ($365.11/mt) during the same period, where trade was done at the same price. That decline has come despite mounting worries over the state of the crop, with yield losses reported in the state due to drought and leading to the Mato Grosso’s Economy and Agriculture Institute (IMEA) to expect 39 million mt to be harvested according to a report released on Monday. That represents a 10.9% reduction compared to the initial estimate of 43.8 million mt, and would be 13.9% lower than the 45.3 million mt collected last year, according to the same database.

- Part of the explanation can be found in Brazil’s export prices, as international demand is responsible for the biggest share of the country’s soybean destination, taking 65.8% of last season’s total supply, according to Brazil’s Supply Company (Conab). FOB Paranaguá outright prices on February loading were assessed at $415.95/mt as of Thursday, again in sharp contrast to $466/mt on January 2, as the Chinese demand – Brazil’s main export destination – remains lukewarm.


Jan 19 - Ukraine Agri SPIKE_MARKET weekly report

Sold in a week
· wheat 12.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, January @190$
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, February @180$
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jan-Feb @164$->163$->160$
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Sich-Feb @154$

- Ukraine:
· Export shipments with the support of the Ukrainian Navy slowed down. Total exports by water transport in January amounted to 2.3 million tons as of 15.01.
- South America:
· Reuters Agency increased the forecast for the harvest in Argentina to 56.7 million tons, which is higher than 55 million tons, as stated in the USDA report.
· Favorable weather in Brazil with sufficient rainfall increases expectations regarding record corn harvest.
· The weather stress for the first corn crop in Brazil is regarded by the market as insignificant. The first corn crop in Brazil is only 21% of the total crop.
- China:
· China has approved additional 8 GMOs of soybean varieties and 6 GMOs of corn varieties for domestic production, which has created additional pressure on prices.
· Imports of corn to China in December amounted to 4.95 million tons, which is 471% more than in December last year. Annual imports in 2023 were 32% more than in the previous year.

- The prices for corn in the world are on the 3-year day. Significant remains in the world and expectations of a record harvest from South America create a significant pressure on prices. Buyers choose a waiting strategy for further price cuts by sellers in order to find sales of balances.
Prices decreased in the direction of the Black Sea ports by 5-7$ per ton. Prices in the final sales markets of North Africa, Spain, Italy and the Middle East also fell to $ 10 per ton. Sellers are hard to find sales in the world market. There is a "price inversion" in the world corn market (when future prices become lower than current ones).

- Prices of feed wheat fell to 10$ per ton after corn prices. Food wheat prices have gained support through active purchases by Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Algeria and Japan. The premium on food wheat increased to $30, at a non-variable food price and lower feed price.

- Sunflower prices are fixed up to 10$ per ton with delivery to the domestic processing in Ukraine. For the period from September to December 2023, Ukraine exported only 133 thousand tons of oil. The main market was Turkey.

- Global soybean prices continue to decline. Prices have decreased to 20$ per ton in all directions of soybean sales for Ukrainian producers.


Jan 19 - China’s 2023 corn imports surge to 27.1m mt on record Dec levels (customs & Agricensus)

- China’s corn imports in 2023 came to 27.13 million mt, a 31.6% jump from the level in 2022 following a record December performance, figures from the country’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) showed Thursday. Corn imports in December reached 4.95 million mt – the highest monthly volume ever recorded – exceeding the previous high set in November at 3.59 million mt and over 400% higher than levels in December 2022. The jump comes as attractive prices and a bumper harvest from South American supplier Brazil kept supply plentiful, prompting buyers to pick up more of the grain, even as China’s domestic corn production in 2023 also rose by 4.2% on the year to 288.8 million mt.  

The total volume imported in 2023 comes in just shy of the all-time high of 28.4 million mt reached in 2021.

- Meanwhile, China’s wheat imports in December fell by 7.6% on the month to 610,000 mt, although total wheat imports for 2023 rose by 21.5% on the year to 12.1 million mt.
- Total barley imports in 2023 also rose by 96.6% from 2022 to 11.3 million mt, with December levels coming in at 1.66 million mt, an increase of 36.1% from November. China’s barley imports have been relatively firm over the last few months, coming in above 1 million mt since September, with the lifting of restrictions on Australian barley back in August also contributing to the higher volume entering the country.    
- On the other hand, total sorghum imports fell drastically by 49% from 2022 to 5.21 million mt, after December’s imports came in 35.2% less than November at 350,000 mt.
- Lastly, edible vegetable oil imports in December were estimated at 810,000 mt, 12% less than in November, bringing total edible vegoil imports for 2023 to 9.81 million mt – 51% higher than in 2022. Palm olein imports in December fell by 34% on the month to 290,000 mt, with the total volume for 2023 coming to 4.33 million mt, 27% higher on the year. Rapeseed oil imports also fell in December to 230,000 mt from November’s 270,000 mt, with annual cumulative imports jumping sharply by 122% from 2022 to 2.36 million mt. Conversely, soybean oil imports rose to 60,000 mt from 40,000 mt in November, bringing total imports for the year to 400,000 mt, 16% higher than 2022.


Jan 19 - Strategie Grains cuts forecasts for EU wheat exports, 2024 harvest
Consultancy Strategie Grains lowered its estimate for soft wheat production in the European Union this year by more than 2 million metric tons, mainly due to a cut in Germany where the area sown is now expected to fall to its lowest level since 1999. In a monthly cereal report, Strategie Grains forecast EU soft wheat production at 122.7 million tons in the 2024/25 season, down from 124.8 million forecast in December and 2.6% below last year's harvest.

Jan 19 - China's embrace of GMO crops gains momentum with new import, planting approvals
China on Thursday approved additional varieties of genetically modified soybeans and corn for import and production while expanding their planting areas nationwide, as part of a drive to improve food security and reduce imports. The agriculture ministry approved the domestic production of six more varieties of genetically modified corn, two of soybeans and one of cotton, and another two of gene-edited soybeans, a notice on the ministry's website said.


Jan 18 - FranceAgriMer cuts 2023/24 wheat export forecasts on lower demand
Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday lowered its forecast for French wheat exports in 2023/24, citing lower demand from China and increased competition from Black Sea exporters mainly in Egypt and southern Europe. In a supply and demand outlook, the office forecast French wheat exports outside the European Union at 10.1 million metric tons from 10.2 million projected last month, now 0.5% below last season's level.

Jan 18 - Egypt's wheat imports rebound after dip in global prices
Egypt's wheat imports rose by more than a million metric tons in 2023, data seen by Reuters shows, with traders citing a dip in global prices from highs reached after Russia invaded Ukraine. One of the world's top wheat importers, Egypt uses the grain it buys for heavily subsidised bread available to more than two thirds of the North African nation's 105 million population.


Jan 18 - Egypt's GASC buys 300k Russian, 60k French wheat in tender (AgriCensus)

Egypt’s state grain importer picked up 300,000 mt of Russian wheat at $265/mt FOB and 60,000 mt of French wheat at $262.50/mt FOB for March shipment, according to market sources.
The state-backed General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) booked five positions of 60,000 mt each, paying $265/mt FOB or $285.67/mt CFR on average, for March 15-30 delivery.

ME Solaris Commodities, Grain Flower, Aston Agro-Industrial SA, and Olam were among the suppliers, with four loads shipping from Kavkaz and one from Novorossiysk.

Freight for one cargo came in at $21.15/mt, while the rest were priced slightly lower at $20.20/mt.

In addition, Viterra sold 60,000 mt at $262.50/mt FOB or $284.50/mt CFR, with freight at $22/mt.

In its last tender that closed on January 9, GASC booked 360,000 mt of Russian-origin wheat at $265/mt FOB for February 29-March 11 shipment.
Along with that, Egypt picked up 60,000 mt of Ukrainian wheat at $282.35/mt FOB Constanta for the same shipment period.


Jan 17 - NOPA December US soy crush jumps to record 195.328 million bushels
U.S. soybean processors crushed more soybeans in December than any previous month on record, closing out a banner year for the industry with their three largest crush months ever, according to National Oilseed Processors Association data released on Tuesday. NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans crushed in the United States, processed 195.328 million bushels of soybeans last month, compared with 189.038 million bushels processed in November and up 10% from the December 2022 crush of 177.505 million bushels.

Jan 17 - Argentina set for soy, corn 'super harvest' as estimates keep rising
Argentina is set for a corn and soy "super harvest" with production forecasts likely to keep climbing, a senior analyst at the Rosario grains exchange told Reuters on Tuesday, a major boost to the embattled grains-producing South America country. Cristian Russo, head of agricultural estimates at the Rosario grains exchange, said that both corn and soy had "very good chances" of topping the body's current harvest forecasts of 59 million metric tons and 52 million tons respectively.


Jan 16 - Brazil February soybean premiums plunge on weak China demand (AgriCensus)

- Soybean premiums out of Brazil, the largest producer of the oilseed, have plunged in the last week, dropping more than 60 c/bu amid pressure from weak Chinese demand, the start of the harvest season and other local factors, market sources told Agricensus.

- Offers of Brazilian cargoes for February shipment were reported by industry sources at a premium of 85-95 c/bu Monday, with trade rumored Friday at 85 c/bu, compared with 140-145 c/bu over March CME futures CFR China last Monday.

For other shipment windows, CFR China premiums for Brazil also fell, albeit to a lesser extent, with offers for March reported at a 55-60 c/bu premium over March futures Monday, compared with an 80-90 c/bu premium seen last Monday, while premiums for other months also fell between 8 c/bu and 23 c/bu during the period. The Paranaguá paper market followed the same path, dropping from a trade done on January 3 for February loading at parity with CME’s March futures contract to a 60 c/bu discount to March futures last Thursday.

Bids for February loading, meanwhile, went from a 15 c/bu discount on January 3 to a 90 c/bu discount as of last Friday.

As in past years, a major factor driving premiums lower in Brazil at this time of the year is the beginning of the soybean harvest, which naturally brings prices down as Chinese buyers know that producing countries’ storage capacity will be pressured by the harvest, according to Ranieri Pasinato Junior, a market analyst for Zairam Agrocomm Brokerage.
“But this time, some other elements are also at play, including South America's huge soybean production, a smaller Chinese demand amid poor crush margins and sufficient soybean stocks, and more competitive pricing of Argentinian soybeans,” Pasinato Junior said.

Another factor is the still substantial production forecast in Brazil, despite recent downgrades by analysts.
“Brazil would need to lose 20% of its initial production estimate so South America would have the same amount produced as last year, and the most pessimistic projections show it around 10%,” said Aldo Lobo of Origem Brokerage.

Meanwhile, potential logistical difficulties in Paranaguá, where there are still a lot of old crop to ship, could also have pushed the premiums down, according to Brazil-based sources.

In addition, trading houses are thought to have bought a lot of soybeans for this period that they now need to sell to China in February, but the window for doing this is shrinking, adding further pricing pressure, Eduardo Vanin, lead soybean analyst and brokerage and consultancy Agrinvest said.

Overall, brokers in both Argentina and China that Agricensus spoke to pointed to poor Chinese demand as the major reason for the situation, with the sources saying no one has any idea whether or when the demand could pick up.

Although China’s annual soybean imports saw their first year-on-year increase since 2020 last year, the country’s loss-making hog industry has led to weak soymeal demand and prices, which has in turn suppressed demand for the crop.

In a sign of its lukewarm demand for soybeans, China reported around 6.5 million mt of soybean stocks as of January 5, a 6.2% growth from the previous week and a 19% and 46% rise from a month and a year ago.

Soybean arrivals in January are expected to reach 7.5 million mt, which could continue to push up the soybean stock level, according to CNGOIC.

The plunge in CFR China soybean premium for Brazil meanwhile may not continue for much longer, as Brazilian farmers seem unwilling to sell given the low prices and subsequent horrible profitability, said Vanin.

As for domestic trade, farmer selling has been lukewarm, market sources said.
"We have seen only punctual trades at this beginning of 2024 as farmers are selling from hand to mouth, only to keep the cash flowing," said Alaíde Ziemmer, AgRural's market analyst..


Jan 16 - Brazil's AgRural lowers soybean crop forecast as harvest advances
Brazil's 2023/24 soybean crop is expected to reach 150.1 million metric tons, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, lowering a December forecast of 159.1 million tons as the harvest advances in the world's top supplier of the oilseed. The consultancy cited adverse weather conditions for the downgraded forecast.

Jan 16 - India to allow edible oil imports at lower duty until March 2025
India will extend edible oil imports at a lower duty by another year until March 2025, the government said in a notification issued late on Monday, as the world's biggest vegetable oil importer moves to contain local prices. The lower import duty structure on crude palm oil, crude sunflower oil and crude soyoil was set to expire in March 2024.


Jan 15 - India has no plans to import wheat for now - trade minister
India does not plan to import wheat and its farmers are likely to harvest a bumper crop that will boost stockpiles in the world's second-biggest producer of the staple, the trade minister said on Saturday. "Ground reports indicate that the crop is quite good and this year's production is expected at a record 114 million metric tons," Piyush Goyal told reporters.

Jan 15 - US corn stocks swell as world recovers from tighter supplies
U.S. corn inventories last month swelled to their largest level since 2018, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Friday, as global supplies recover from multi-year lows. World grain supplies are becoming more comfortable after tightening due to the war in Ukraine, a major corn and wheat producer, and unfavorable crop weather.


Jan 12 - Algeria's OAIC buys up to 350k mt of durum wheat (OAIC AgriCensus)

 

- Algeria's state grain importer has booked at least 350,000 mt of durum wheat in a tender for February-March shipment, trade sources said on Thursday.

The Office Algerien Interprofessional des Cereales (OAIC) has bought at least 350,000 mt of durum, paying around $450-455/mt CFR for panamax vessels and around $470/mt CFR for handysize parcels. The biggest volumes are expected to be sourced mainly from Canada, but at least one cargo each is expected to be of Australian and Mexican origin.

The cargo is set to be shipped between February 1-15, February 16-29, and March 1-15, March 16-31.

In its previous tender, which closed December 6, OAIC booked up to 475,000-500,000 mt of durum for January-February shipment, paying in the range of $455/mt to $470/mt CFR, depending on origin.


Jan 12 - Ukraine Agri SPIKE_MARKET weekly report

Sold in a week
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jan-Feb @164$
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Sich-Feb @159$
· Soybean GMO DAP Danube, Ukraine, Jan @19'200 UAH with VAT

- Ukraine:
· In January, exports of grain, oil and processing products as of 10.01 amounted to: corn - 1,037 thousand tons, wheat - 377 thousand tons, barley - 96 thousand tons, soybeans - 70 thousand tons, rape - 134 thousand tons, sunflower - 7 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 174 thousand tons, soybean oil - 9 thousand tons, cake and sunflower meal - 153 thousand tons, cake and soybean meal - 13 thousand tons.
· Share of Ukraine in the structure of grain imports to Europe from 01/07: 1st place on wheat imports - 3.2 million tons (66% of total imports); 1st place on barley imports - 608 thousand tons (52% of total imports); 1st place on corn imports - 5.1 million tons (57% of total imports).
· Share of Ukraine in the structure of oil imports to Europe from 01/07: 3rd place on soybean imports - 429 thousand tons (7.2% of total imports); 1st place on rapeseed imports - 1.8 million tons (64% of total imports); 2nd place on sunflower imports - 107 thousand tons (31% of total imports).

- The activity of the corn supply on the world market added to the pressure on the prices of the final sales markets on the CIF basis; in some directions, prices have adjusted by 2-3$ over the last week. In Ukrainian deep-sea ports, corn on the part of buyers is 154-158$ CPT and 180-182$ FOB. Demand in European countries is gradually recovering; customer levels in Italy are 205-215€ DAP depending on transport and delivery period.

- Wheat is actively traded in Ukrainian deep-sea ports; the demand for feed wheat of 158-162$ DAP, the food premium is from 15 to 20$. Prices for wheat in the Constanta port (Romania) remain unchanged. Demand of buyers in the Italian market at levels of 227-230€ DAP for wheat with a protein content of 11%, 210-215€ DAP / 229-230$ CIF per protein of 10.5%

- Sunflower trade is focused on the domestic market at 320-345$ (equiv. without VAT) depending on the quality and region of delivery. Despite the slight strengthening of prices and the presence of logistics in the direction of Bulgaria and Romania (which in the previous marketing season were the main export markets for Ukrainian sunflower), due to the long procedure for obtaining export licenses, sellers are in no hurry to fix transactions.
Actively traded products of processing. The price of sunflower oil is kept in the range of 820-825$ DAP Bulgaria. Price levels of sunflower cake in the direction of northern Italy 265-270€ DAP.

- In the Italian market for the last week soybeans lost up to 5€. Demand for GMO soybeans towards the western border of Ukraine at 370-380€ DAP delivery by wagons or dump trucks. In Ukrainian ports soya has not undergone changes and traded in the range of 450-470$ (300 UAH with VAT).


Jan 12 - Brazil 2023/2024 soybean crop view slashed by 7.5 mln T - Patria
Brazil's 2023/2024 soybean crop will total 143.18 million metric tons, 7.5 million tons below a previous forecast of 150.7 million tons of production, according to a new report by Patria Agronegocios on Thursday. Brazil's total corn crop will reach 110.29 million tons, down from the 112.51 million tons in a previous forecast, Patria said, citing climate risk.

Jan 12 - Trade’s lack of direction on US corn, soy crops could set up surprise - Braun
The market could be setting itself up for a surprise on Friday amid the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s data onslaught since analysts are expecting virtually no changes to last year’s U.S. corn and soybean crop estimates, which are typically the day’s most sought-after numbers. The trade pegs 2023 U.S. corn production at a record 15.226 billion bushels and soybean output at a four-year low of 4.127 billion bushels.


Jan 11 - Malaysia December palm oil stocks fall to four-month low on 13% production dip (IHSmarkit)

- Stocks fall 4.6% on month to 2.29 million metric tons
- Full-year production up 0.6% at 18.5 million metric tons
- Malaysian biodiesel exports drop 16% on year

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks fell 4.6% on the month to 2.29 million metric tons end-December, the lowest since end-August, as production and exports came in below industry expectations, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed Jan. 10.

The world’s second largest palm oil producer exported 1.33 million metric tons, down 5.1% on the month, and below the 1.35 million metric tons expected in a poll conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights Jan. 9.

December's production of crude palm oil dropped 13.3% to 1.55 million metric tons, from 1.78 million metric tons in November, as the peak production season tapered off and heavy rains in Malaysia impeded harvesting activities at oil palm plantations, industry analysts said.

The benchmark palm oil contract for March delivery was up 1.1% at MR3,771 per metric ton by midday break on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange Jan. 10.
Malaysia’s palm oil industry in 2023

In 2023, Malaysia’s palm oil production reached 18.55 million metric tons, up 0.6% from the year before, as a higher influx of foreign labor and a healthy amount of rain improved yields at plantations.

The country’s palm oil exports fell 4% to 15.1 million metric tons in 2023, from 15.74 million metric tons the year before, as larger rival Indonesia claimed more trade demand.

In 2022, Indonesia placed a month-long ban on palm oil exports to arrest runaway food inflation in the country, pushing large buyers India and China to Malaysia to cover their requirements.

Malaysia’s biodiesel exports dropped to 259,697 metric tons in 2023, from 309,374 metric tons

- in 2022, the MPOB data showed, as the largest buyer, the EU, reduced its imports of palm oil-based biodiesel as part of its new renewable fuels policy.

- In 2023, the crude palm oil benchmark contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange averaged MR3,798 per metric ton, down 23% from 2022, the exchange data showed.
- In 2024, third-month crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s commodity exchange are expected to average MR4,000/t ($856.44/t), according to S&P Global’s annual price forecast Dec. 22.


Jan 11 - Brazil's Conab cuts soy forecast, still expects record crop
Brazilian farmers will produce a record soybean output in the 2023/24 cycle even after bad weather led crop agency Conab on Wednesday to cut expected production by some 5 million metric tons. Conab said the El Niño pattern had brought excessive heat and dryness in the center of Brazil and too much rain in the south.

Jan 11 - Malaysia palm output to improve this year on improved labour availability
Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to improve this year as a labour shortage eases, though challenges remain as planters seek to comply with European and U.S. regulations targeting links to deforestation and forced labour in the commodity's supply chain, industry officials said at a seminar. The country's palm oil sector, which relies on foreign workers for 70% of its plantation workforce, has seen a severe labour crunch in recent years, in part due to the COVID-19 pandemic.


Jan 11 - Conab cuts Brazil soybean output to 155.3m mt, corn to 117.6m mt (AgriCensus)

- Brazilian food agency Conab slashed its soybean crop estimates by 3.1% to 155.3 million mt and cut its corn output projection by 0.8% to 117.6 million mt in a monthly update published Wednesday. In December, Conab pegged the country’s soybean crop at 160.2 million mt. while corn output was estimated at 118.5 million mt. Once again, the weather woes weighed on the country's forecast, which did not take into account the recent rainy days that are expected to soften the impacts of the earlier lack of rain on crops.

- Poorly distributed rainfall and high temperatures harmed both planting and crop development, the agency said. In addition to high volumes of rain in the south, these weather setbacks delayed sowing. The country's total oilseeds and grain production is now projected at 306.4 million mt, a 1.9% decline from last month’s 312.3 million mt estimates and down 4.2% from the 319.8 million mt record for 2022/23. The weather conditions have also prompted some producers to switch to other crops, leading to a reduction in the area compared to December’s report, Conab added. The country’s planted area was pegged at 78.7 million ha, 0.1% below the previous report and 0.3% higher than the 78.5 million ha sown in the 2022/23 crop season.

Soybean
- The new soybean estimate is 4.2% lower than the initial 162 million mt forecast. But the soybean production estimates are also 0.4% higher than 2022/23's 154.6 million mt record crop.
Brazil's sown area estimates are 0.1% lower than December’s projection at 45.2 million ha, a 2.7% increase from the 44.1 million ha area sown in 2022/23. Yield estimates dropped by 3% on the month to 3,431 kilos/ha from the previous 3,535 kilos/ha projection and are 2.2% down year over year.

- Conab lowered Brazil's 2024 soybean export estimates to 98.45 million mt from 101.5 million mt last month, which represents a 3.2% year-on-year drop. In 2023, Brazil exported a record 101.8 million mt, above the 100 million mt projected last month and a 29.3% gain when compared to the 78.7 million mt sent abroad in 2022. Brazil's 2024 soybean crushing estimates remained unchanged at 54.3 million mt.

- The 2023 final figure reached 52.1 million mt, slightly above the 52 million mt projected in December, and 9.2% above the 47.7 million mt processed in 2022. Brazil’s 2024 soymeal production forecast rose to 41.1 million mt from December’s 41 million mt projection. In 2023, soymeal output amounted to 40.6 million mt, above the 40 million mt previous projection and up 8.2% from the 37.5 million mt production from 2022. Soymeal exports forecast for the current year remained unchanged at 21.5 million mt.

- In 2023, shipments totaled 22.6 million mt, surpassing 2022’s 20.3 million mt volume by 11.3%, while last month, exports were pegged at 21.6 million. Conab kept its soyoil output estimates unchanged at 10.7 million mt in 2024. Last year’s production amounted to 10.5 million mt, a 12.9% gain from the 9.3 million mt seen in 2022.  

- Soyoil 2024 export projection was trimmed to 1.5 million mt from the previous 1.6 million mt forecast. In 2023, shipments totaled 2.3 million mt, below the 2.4 million mt projection made in December and the 2.5 million mt shipments from 2022.

Corn
- Conab's new estimates for Brazil’s corn crop production in 2023/24 are 10.9% lower than last year’s crop record of 131.9 million mt. Last month’s estimate was 119 million mt. The agency cut its summer crop output estimate by 3.7% to 24.38 million mt from last month’s 25.3 million mt. The new figure is 10.9% below the 27.37 million mt harvested in 2022/23. Second crop safrinha production remained unchanged at 91.2 million mt, down 10.9% year over year.

- Brazil's total corn area is now seen at 21 million ha from last month’s 21.1 million ha estimates, a 5.6% loss from 2022/23's 22.26 million ha. The summer crop area was cut to 3.9 million ha, a 1.6% loss from the previous 4 million ha projection, down by 10.7% from 2022/23's 4.4 million ha. The second corn crop safrinha area was unchanged at 16.4 million ha, 4.5% lower than the 17.2 million ha sown in 2022/23.  

- Brazil sent abroad a record 56 million mt of corn in 2023, becoming the world’s biggest exporter, a 20.2% gain from the 46.6 million mt shipments from 2022. Conab reduced this year’s shipment projection to 35 million mt from the 38 million mt previously estimated. Brazil's domestic demand forecast for 2024 was slightly reduced to 84.3 million mt from last month’s 84.5 million mt projection. That compares to 79.6 million mt in 2023, a 5.9% year-over-year increase.


Jan 10 - Malaysia’s December palm oil stocks to fall on lower output, stable exports ( IHSmarkit )

- End-Dec stocks pegged at 2.36 million metric tons
- Output to fall by 10% on month due to heavy rains
- Dec biodiesel exports seen rising sharply to 50,000 metric tons

Malaysia’s palm oil inventories are expected to have fallen to 2.36 million metric tons by end-December, from 2.42 million metric tons a month before, owing to lower production and relatively stable exports, a S&P Global Commodity Insights survey showed Jan. 9.

Production from the world’s second-largest supplier of palm oil is expected to fall to 1.6 million metric tons, down 10.6% from 1.79 million metric tons produced in November, according to the median estimate of 11 analysts, traders, and growers polled in the survey. Official December supply and demand data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board will be released Jan. 10.

The MPOA expects palm oil production to fall by 12.4% on the month in December due to heavy rains in several parts of the country.

For December, exports were pegged at 1.35 million metric tons, down marginally from 1.39 million metric tons in November, the survey showed.

Domestic consumption was predicted to fall to 380,000 metric tons from a higher base of 458,458 metric tons in November, according to the monthly survey.

Meanwhile, Malaysia’s biodiesel exports in December could be around 50,000 metric tons, said Lingam Supramaniam, director with vegetable oil brokerage Pelindung Bestari at Port Klang, Malaysia, compared with a lower base of 17,971 metric tons in November.

News of tightening inventories and falling production pushed Malaysian palm oil futures up for the fourth session in a row Dec. 9 after reaching its lowest level in two months in the first week of the year.

The benchmark third-month palm oil futures contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange rose to MR3,712/t ($799.40/t) by mid-day Jan. 9 after starting the year at MR3,661/t, according to exchange data.

Prices have also been supported by bargain buying and steady demand from India, the largest buyer of the commodity, analysts said.


Jan 10 - Argentina rains and mild temperatures to benefit soy, corn
Argentina's 2023/24 soybean and corn crops will see a boost in January due to rains and moderate temperatures for the Southern Hemisphere summer, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in its monthly weather report on Tuesday. Argentina is one of the world's top exporters of soybean oil and meal, and the third-largest exporter of corn.

Jan 09 - Brazil's soybean harvest kicks off with low yields in Mato Grosso
Brazilian soybean farmers have begun to reap their 2023/24 soybean crop, covering some 0.6% of the national planted area as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday. Field work is more advanced in top grain state Mato Grosso, where yields "are much lower than normal" after hot and dry weather destroyed part of the crop.

Jan 09 - Unseasonable rains in Ivory Coast lift cocoa outlook, farmers say
Unseasonable rains in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa regions last week are expected to boost both the main crop and the April-to-September mid-crop, farmers said on Monday. The world's top cocoa producer is in its dry season, which runs officially from mid-November to March when rains are usually scarce.


Jan 08 - Brazil's soy exports forecast to rise in January despite possible shortages
Brazilian soy exports will reach at least 1.3 million metric tons in January, a sharp increase from the 940,000 tons exported in the same month last year, according to projections released on Friday by Anec, a grain exporters group. Brazil starts planting its soybeans around September and normally harvests the crop in the first two months of the following year. Dry weather, however, delayed some planting last year and will affect the harvesting of the 2023/2024 crop.

Jan 08 - Polish farmers to suspend protest at key Ukraine border crossing
Polish farmers have decided to suspend a protest at the border crossing with Ukraine at Medyka after the government agreed to their demands, interia.pl website reported on Saturday citing the local province governor. Polish truck drivers have been blocking several crossings with Ukraine since Nov. 6, demanding that the European Union reinstate a system whereby Ukrainian companies obtain permits to operate in the bloc.


Jan 05 - Ukraine Agri SPIKE_MARKET report

Sold in a week
· feed wheat DAP PD.-zh. Romania, Jan-Feb @210$
· corn DAP Odessa, Jan-Feb @160$->159$->161$->160$->159$

- Ukraine:
· Export of grain, oil and processed products in the first 4 days of 2024 amounted to: corn - 388 thousand tons, wheat - 185 thousand tons, barley - 32 thousand tons, soybean - 26 thousand tons, rape - 20 thousand tons, sunflower - 3 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 60 thousand tons, soybean oil - 1 thousand tons, cake and sunflower meal - 28 thousand tons, soybean meal - 3 thousand tons.
· In December 2023, total exports of grain, oil and processed products amounted to about 7.3 million tons.
· From 01 to 03 January, the passage of agricultural products for export through automobile checkpoints of 1.4 thousand tons; for comparison, in December for the same period, this figure was 39.4 thousand tons, and in November 51.1 thousand tons.

- Corn is actively traded towards Ukrainian ports in the range of 155-160$ DAP. On the western border of Ukraine, customer activity is resumed with price levels ranging from 125€ to 135€ DAP (delivered in Ukrainian cars 1520 mm). Trading activity in the direction of Europe remains not too high.

- Wheat remains in demand. In deep-sea ports of Ukraine there is a high liquidity of forage wheat with trading levels from 158$ to 162$ DAP depending on the delivery period. The premium on food wheat remains 15-20$. In the direction of the western border trading levels on feed wheat in the range of 128-132€ DAP.
Recent customer indicators:

- The long-term procedure for obtaining export licenses directs sellers to sell sunflower on the domestic market. Prices of sunflower with delivery to the plant in Ukraine were traded within 310-330$ (equiv. without VAT), depending on the oil content and delivery region. Demand for sunflower in the direction of Bulgaria at 420-430$ DAP, but liquidity is limited.
The offer of processed products (oil, cake and meal) is growing. The price of sunflower oil is kept in the range of 820-825$ DAP Bulgaria and 840-845$ DAP Greece.

- The demand of buyers in the main sales markets of Ukrainian soybeans is somewhat restrained. The price levels for the last week decreased by 5-10€. In the direction of the western border demand at 380-390€ DAP per GMO, the premium for NE-GMO quality is up to 10€. In the deep sea ports of Ukraine, the demand for soybeans GMOs is in the range of 450-460$ DAP.


Jan 05 - Saskatchewan workers at grain handler Viterra set to strike
More than 400 Canadian workers at grain handler Viterra are set to strike on Friday in Saskatchewan, pending a last round of talks, the Grain and General Services Union said. Viterra, based in Rotterdam, is one of Canada's largest handlers of wheat, canola and other crops. Saskatchewan is the country's biggest grain-growing province.

Jan 05 - Jordan's MIT locks up 120k mt wheat for March at $276.75/mt (AgriCensus)

Jordan’s state grain importer has booked 120,000 mt of milling wheat for March shipment, trade sources said Thursday.

The Ministry of Industry, Trade and Supply (MIT) booked two cargoes of milling wheat of 60,000 mt each, paying $276.75/mt CFR Aqaba to Al Dahra and CHS for the shipment in the first and second half of March.

In addition to the winning lot, five more offers were received in a price range of $287.50-301.50/mt CFR Aqaba.

Jordan's next wheat tender is expected to be announced on January 9, for March-May shipment.

The country's last wheat purchase was completed on November 21, when it booked 60,000 mt of milling wheat at $273.50/mt CFR Aqaba from Cerealcom Dolj for shipment in the second half of January.


Jan 04 - Polish farmers to resume blockade of Ukraine border crossing
Polish farmers will resume their blockade of the Medyka border crossing with Ukraine from Thursday, protest leaders told state-run news agency PAP, as Prime Minister Donald Tusk attempted to defuse the dispute. The Polish farmers suspended their protest, which aims to secure government subsidies for corn and prevent tax hikes, on Dec. 24. Polish truck drivers have been blocking border crossings with Ukraine since November.

Jan 04 - Bunge says damaged natgas pipeline caused Indiana soy plant closure
A soybean processing facility in Decatur, Indiana, operated by global grain handler Bunge stopped operations last week following damage to a natural gas pipeline that feeds the site, the company said in a statement to Reuters on Wednesday. Bunge said it expected the Decatur plant to be operational "soon."


Jan 03 - Pakistani rice market set for bullish 2024 but downside risks loom (IHSmarkit)

- USDA forecasts rice exports at new record of 5 mil metric tons in MY 2023-24
- Forex volatility, high interest rates pose challenges for exporters
- Basmati market stable but prices to be lower compared to 2023

The Pakistani rice market looks set for a strong 2024, carrying over the positive mood from the second half of 2023, although there remains some caution over downside risks from macroeconomic conditions and the possibility of India relaxing its restrictions on rice exports.

After a slow start to last year in the aftermath of 2022's devastating floods, India’s non-Basmati white rice export ban in July, a near-record crop production and large exportable surplus, and competitive prices, Pakistan's rice market saw a surge in exports in the second half.

That pace is expected to continue into 2024. The US Department of Agriculture forecasts Pakistani milled rice production to increase 64% year on year to 9 million metric tons in the marketing year 2023-24 (November-October), which would be the second-largest crop ever, marginally below the record 9.3 million metric tons crop in MY 2021-22.

Rice exports are forecast to reach a new record of 5 million metric tons in MY 2023-24, surpassing the 4.8 million metric tons achieved in MY 2021-22.


Basmati market to be stable
With a good 2023 Basmati crop, market participants expect consistent supply and demand all throughout the upcoming year. Though demand was slow towards the end of 2023, it is likely to pick up in the first quarter of 2023. The EU and Middle East would continue to be the main Pakistani Basmati markets.

However, Basmati prices in 2024 may not be as high as they were in 2023, market participants said. Basmati supply was tight early in 2023 due to the floods in 2022, pushing prices up. Basmati prices dropped significantly towards the last quarter of 2023. Platts assessed Pakistani Super Kernel Brown Basmati 2% at $824/t FOB FCL on Dec. 29 against $1,600/t FOB FCL on Jan. 13.

The increase in freight rates to the EU is also likely to weigh on the Basmati export prices. Meanwhile, the higher minimum export prices of Indian Basmati are likely to benefit the Pakistani Basmati exports with many buyers already shifting to the market.


Jan 03 - StoneX scraps forecast for record Brazilian soybean crop
Agribusiness consultancy StoneX on Tuesday cut its estimate for Brazil's soybean crop in 2023/24 due to lack of rain in key farmlands, now forecasting 152.8 million metric ton harvest, down from its previous estimate of 161.9 million tons. The cut means StoneX no longer forecasts a record crop in Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of soybeans, as output this season would come in below the 157.7 million tons reaped in 2022/23.

Jan 03 - Funds possibly in position to cover big CBOT corn shorts a la 2018 - Braun
Speculators have entered 2024 with some of their most bearish-ever views toward Chicago-traded corn, though in years past, that positioning has rarely proven sustainable in the months that followed. As of Dec. 26, money managers held a net short position in CBOT corn futures and options of 177,626 contracts, their second-largest year-end net short on record after 2017.

 

Jan 02 - Dairy Price Update: CME cheese markets close 2023 below year-ago levels (IHSmarkit)

- CME block prices were at $2.135/lb. a year ago, which is 66.5¢ higher than this year’s close of $1.47
- Cheese plant managers report steady production schedules, and the discarding of milk supplies was avoided due to cheese processors balancing milk volumes
- Year-to-date cheese exports through November trailed 2022 by 4%

CHEESE
At the end of 2023, the markets closed lower compared to the previous year. CME block prices were at $2.135/lb. a year ago, which is 66.5¢ higher than today's close of $1.47. Barrel prices were $1.8575/lb. at the end of 2022, while today's year-end settlement is at $1.40/lb.

There are ample milk supplies available as bottling orders have been paused due to school closures for the December holidays. Cheese plant managers report steady production schedules, and the discarding of milk supplies was avoided due to cheese processors balancing milk volumes. Cheddar and mozzarella continue to be the most in-demand cheeses. Retail demand is steady, while food service demand is quieter seasonally. One small ray of hope for 2024 cheese markets could come in the form of exports. While year-to-date exports through November trailed 2022 by 4%, US cheese prices continue to be priced at a discount to Europe's, which could increase US exports in 2024.


BUTTER
While retailers stocked up early in 2023 to build supply for holiday demand, the fat market was tight through the summer on declining milk output in the West and increased demand for other high-fat products, such as cottage cheese. This led to another perfect storm, pushing prices past the $3/lb. mark, setting a new record. Retail demand for butter is expected to remain strong and steady for the remainder of 2023. However, the demand for food service in the eastern region is reportedly light. As per the stakeholders, inventories in the western region are more balanced as compared to the central and eastern regions. In the east region, inventories for both unsalted and salted butter are comfortable to lighter, and it has been challenging to find space for some spot loads of cream due to being at/near capacity.

 

POWDERS
Prices have been in the range of high 30¢ to low 40¢ since late October, due to the rise in demand for high protein whey, which has boosted prices across the industry. Processors and end users are looking forward to early 2024 and the market tones have caught some slightly bullish traction in recent weeks. Availability has held somewhat snug in the Central region. High protein blends, such as WPC 80% and whey protein isolate, are gaining more attention from the end users and processors, causing processing to shift into these varieties. Milk availability has grown as expected this holiday season, as Class III processors are paying below-class prices for spot milk. Animal feed whey trading has been quiet, and prices are holding steady. Interest in WPC 34% has waned this week as spot market activity has been somewhat quiet due to end-of-year holidays.


Jan 02 - EU wheat prices drop in 2023 as Black Sea trade withstands war
Euronext wheat edged up on Friday but fell sharply over the year after stiff export competition from the Black Sea region eased worries about war disrupting the grain trade. March wheat on Paris-based Euronext settled 0.3% higher on the day at 222.50 euros ($246.15) a metric ton.

Jan 02 - USDA November soy crush estimated at 199.7 million bushels
The U.S. soybean crush likely eased slightly to 5.991 million short tons in November, or 199.7 million bushels, while soyoil stocks rose, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report. The U.S. crush topped 200 million bushels in October for the first time ever as a recently expanded and still-growing U.S. soy processing industry crushed greater volumes of soybeans amid rising vegetable oil demand from biofuel makers.


Dec 29 - Ukraine SPIKE_MARKET Weekly report

Sold in a week
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Dec-Jan @160$
· corn DAP Odessa, Dec @159$->160$->158$

Ukraine:
· Late harvest crops were harvested in 2023 as of 21.12: maize - 27.61 million tons (88% of the area); sunflower - 11.97 million tons (99% of the area); soybean - 4.77 million tons (100% of the area).
· Export of grain, oil and processing products in December as of 27.12 amounted to: corn - 3,064 thousand tons, wheat - 1,447 thousand tons, barley - 148 thousand tons, soybeans - 386 thousand tons, rapeseed - 221 thousand tons, sunflower - 38 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 575 thousand tons, soybean oil - 23 thousand tons, oilcake and sunflower meal - 358 thousand tons, cake and soybean meal - 81 thousand tons.
· As of 27.12, in December, total agricultural exports exceeded 6.3 million tons, while in November this figure amounted to 5.2 million tons in the same period.

- Against the background of low activity of European buyers, the liquidity of corn is rather limited due to the holidays. In the direction of Ukrainian ports, the price of corn stabilized in the range of 156-158$ DAP deep-sea ports. The main countries for the purpose of exporting Ukrainian corn in December were Spain (580 thousand tons), China (684 thousand tons) and Egypt (451 thousand tons), which is 56% of the total export share of this crop this month.

- Prices for wheat in Europe have not undergone significant changes, but at the same time Christmas holidays in Europe have reduced demand activity over the past week. In deep-sea ports of Ukraine wheat is actively traded and demand is more focused on feed wheat at 156-160$ DAP. Premium for food wheat in the range of 10-15$.

- Sunflower trade activity is concentrated on the domestic market; in the regions of Ukraine, the average price range is from 320$ to 330$ equivalent to VAT on the terms of CPT plant, depending on the oil content. Prices of processing enterprises in the direction of Bulgaria remain at 410-425$ DAP plant; however, the long-term issuance of export licenses in this direction remains the main deterrent of exports.

- Soybean prices have not undergone significant changes over the last week. In the ports of Ukraine, the demand for soybeans is at 460-470$ DAP Danube and 455-460$ DAP Odessa. On the western border, the price levels of buyers from € 390 to € 400 Ukrainian cars have been delivered, depending on the quality.
In December, 386 thousand tons of soybeans were exported and the main destination countries were Egypt (161 thousand tons) and Turkey (96 thousand tons).


Dec 27 - Olive Oil Update for December 2023 (IHSmarkit)

- Spanish production is expected to increase by 17% y/y
- Italy’s crop projected to increase by 15% y/y to around 300,000 metric tons
- EU carry-overstocks projected at 341,000 metric tons

Olive harvest in the Mediterranean origins is in full swing and the EU has a clearer picture of the season, having launched its initial 2023-24 production estimate for Spain, Italy and Greece. Spain’s 2023-24 olive oil production is projected to increase by 15.5% year-on-year to 766,362 metric tons; Italy is expected to reach 288,900 metric tons, 20% more y/y; and Greece might fall by 43% y/y to 195,000 metric tons. The Portuguese estimate has not been published yet, although most players project a record-low output due to severe drought in the largest origins, most of the crop being dependent on non-irrigated plantations. Meanwhile, the olive oil consumption is forecast to fall by 27% y/y to 953,000 metric tons in the EU and the inventories to increase by 10% y/y to 341,000 metric tons.

The 2024-25 season will be an off-year in Spain and Italy (olive trees alternates one season with a high yield and another with a low one) and the European Commission considers that prices might recover a lower price level in the 2025-26 season if rainfall is on average, due to the combination of consumption at lows and inventories recovery.

The EU is the largest global consumer although it is interesting to analyze the US data, whose imports have been the real driver of growth for high-quality oil sales, Extra Virgin oil particularly.

The USDA has updated its data estimates, mirroring those in November. The 2023-24 world production is projected at 2.89 million metric tons; the domestic consumption at 2.81 million metric tons; and inventories at 320,000 metric tons, 6% less than the EU estimate.

The US imports fell by 17% year-on-year to 301,812 metric tons in January-October 2023, Spain and Italy accounting for 31% and 30% of the supply. However, this fall takes place after record imports of 422,200 metric tons in 2022. This data means inflation is damaging demand for olive oil, with consumers focusing on staples and cutting average purchases of other products such as nuts. However, many Californian farmers who uprooted almonds and walnuts in previous seasons due to the long-term bearish trend have turned to other crops with high quotes, olive trees included, and wholesalers and retailers might be waiting for initial US shipments, with harvest taking place in timeframes similar to the EU and Turkey. The USDA is implementing changes in its rules about labeling and insurance policy due to this outlook.

Turkey ‘s output is expected to fall to 150,000 metric tons due to drought, after a bumper crop of 400,000 metric tons in the 2022-23 season. Other minor origins such as Syria (49,000 metric tons in 2023 against 150,000 metric tons in 2022) and Portugal are projecting to have low crops. Both of them, as Tunisia and Morocco, were considered as complementary origins by Spanish and Italian bottlers. Finally, all eyes are on Greece, whose bumper crop in 2022 (340,000 metric tons) tempered the sharp fall in Spain and Italy. However, Greek trees will be in an off-year (olives alternates one season with a high yield and another with a low) and it is unlikely that they mirror the previous output.

Ending stocks were developed in the EU to secure a stable market after suffering speculative practices which were damaging the olive oil industry reputation and are essential to analyze price trends. The olive oil industry has relied on these inventories to increase gradually its market share and finance its production expansion. The EU inventories reached a high of 784,000 metric tons in the 2018-19 season, feeding the rising demand for olive oil thanks to stabilized prices. To revert the current price levels will depend on the Spanish crop, after its expansion in the last decade explains the rising global market share of this product, previously considered as an expensive niche.

Spain reached a record crop of 1.79 million metric tons in the 2018-19 season, pushing up EU inventories to 784,000 metric tons, gradually falling to 309,000 metric tons in the 2022-23 season. Combination of growing inventories and falling consumption will be essential to cut prices in the long term, and the former ones will not increase until the Spanish crop exceeds between 1.1-1.2 million metric tons.

Data from Spanish authorities and industry is confirming a sharp fall in the olive oil market share in the oil consumption in Spain in favour of other products such as sunflower oil. The Spanish olive oil consumption fell by 18% y/y in volume to 234.8 million metric tons but rose by 26% in value to €1.43 billion in November 2022-October 2023. That means Spanish oil consumers are not considering olive oil a staple, the former and the US having been the drivers of growth for a long time.

In addition, concerns about fraud have spread to the EU, mixings of different olive oil qualities being the most common practice, with the called agri-mafia covering gaps in supply with adulterated products. The EU Europol enforcement agency in collaboration with Spanish and Italian authorities reported that they arrested 11 people with links to gang organizations, detecting 260,000 liters of adulterated olive oil, with 5,200 being ready to be ready for export, mainly in the US, within the operation called Opson.

S&P Global Commodity Insights uses CIF ex-Mill prices for Italian and Spanish Extra Virgin oil, the most consumed by non-EU markets, as a reference. Spanish quotation averaged €8,118/metric ton ($8,880/metric ton) in the week ending on 13 December, 3% more than in November 2023 and 44% more than in December 2022. Italian price averaged €8,458/metric ton in the week ending on 13 December, 3% more than in November 2023 and 57% more y/y. The price difference between the Italian and the Spanish product was €340 in the week ending on 13 December, 9% more than in November 2023. The Spanish product price was €232 higher than the Italian in December 2022.



Outlook

Spanish and Italian prices have recovered a bullish trend once the industry does not estimate a recovery in inventories. They have been falling since October due to the combination of falling demand in the US and slowing purchases of EU manufacturers. The EU is projecting a falling crop although Spain and Italy, the main global suppliers, are expected to increase theirs. However, the inventories will not increase at a level which allows to secure a bearish trend, the EU forecasting this scenario in the 2025-26 season only if the rainfall average recovers a high level.


Dec 27 - Vietnam’s rice harvest seen resilient to El Nino in 2024 (IHSmarkit)

Vietnam’s rice harvest will likely remain resilient against the potential effects of El Nino in 2024 thanks to sufficient water reserves to sustain the next crop, according to market participants and industry observers.

Exports are likely to face competitive challenges from other major suppliers such as Thailand and Pakistan, as prices remain comparatively high, with the US Department of Agriculture projecting a 6% drop in shipments in 2024.

Despite this, Vietnam will remain the third-largest rice exporter globally after India and Thailand, market participants reckoned.

The ongoing El Nino phenomenon will likely reduce rainfall in the Mekong Delta region during the winter-spring crop harvest, the biggest of its three crops a year, in late-February, possibly leading to drought and saltwater intrusion in the region. The phenomenon is expected to last until April, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

Production, however, should be unscathed, as farmers implement staggered planting in provinces of the Mekong Delta region to minimize any negative impacts of El Nino dryness on rice production.

Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture & Rural Development planned to complete seeding of 375,000 hectares by October, followed by 700,000 hectares by November and 400,000 hectares by December. They have also recommended farmers to plant more high-quality varieties for exports.

Rice production from the Mekong Delta region accounts for half of Vietnam’s total production and 90% of the country’s export volume.

Tech advancements to boost production

The country has various rice varieties that have shorter production cycles and higher yields. Vietnam has also built irrigation projects to ensure the supply of fresh water from the Mekong River to the delta.

“They can grow an additional crop using high-quality varieties if there is a tight supply in the global market in 2024 due to the India ban, climate change, and El Nino impacts,” Vo Tong Xuan, a leading rice expert from Vietnam, said during the Vietnam International Rice Festival 2023.

A source at a rice production company based in Bac Lieu province said that Vietnam will try to maximize rice production during the winter-spring crop harvest, despite the El Nino impacts, to benefit from the expected high export price in the first half of 2024.

According to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture, production of milled rice for MY 2023 (January-December) is estimated at 26.9 million metric tons, up 1% on the year.

Production for the MY 2024 will likely be unchanged at 27 million metric tons, according to analysts from S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Vietnam exports to decline

The USDA expects Vietnam’s rice exports in 2024 to drop 6.3% on the year to 7.5 million metric tons, while rice shipments from Thailand are seen 3.5% lower on the year at 8.2 million metric tons. Vietnam and Thailand occasionally swap ranks as second- and third-largest global exporters.

Analysts at S&P Global forecast Vietnamese rice exports at around 7 million metric tons next year, below USDA’s estimates, with competitive challenges from Thailand and Pakistan possibly shrinking demand for Vietnamese produce.

During January-November 2023, Vietnam exported 7.6 million metric tons of rice, up 15% on the year, the customs data showed. The Philippines remained the biggest importer of Vietnamese rice, buying 2.87 million metric tons in the period.

Philippines may turn elsewhere if offers look high

In early-December, the Philippines’ Department of Agriculture said that rice traders must now observe a 30-day deadline to bring in their rice imports, counting from the date of the issuance of the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Import Clearance. Failing to do so may result in sanctions and penalties.

One Philippines-based importer said that it will be hard for them to import rice from Pakistan, as sometimes it takes more than 30 days for the vessels to reach the Philippines. “But it doesn’t affect importing from Vietnam or Thailand as the vessel reaches within a month. The problem will be only when the shipment gets delayed.”

Another Davao-based importer also said that in 2023, they imported 30%-40% less Vietnamese rice because of the prevailing high prices.

Next year, if Vietnam’s rice prices are still at comparatively higher levels, importers will look at markets like Thailand, Pakistan, and Myanmar for cheaper rates. Importers also mentioned that they can’t stop purchasing Vietnam’s rice because their customers in the Philippines prefer the taste of Fragrant 5% and OM 5451 5% broken more than any other variety.

Platts, part of S&P Global, assessed 5% broken white rice and Fragrant 5% broken at $640/t FOB and $705/t FOB on Dec. 22, respectively.

A major Vietnam-based exporter said demand is expected to rise from countries like Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia during the winter-spring crop harvest in March. Prices could ease as arrivals begin to flow in that period.

Indonesia, one of the major buyers of Vietnamese rice, was projected to raise its rice imports by 600,000 metric tons to 2 million metric tons in 2024, the USDA forecasts showed.

Also, several analysts believe India would likely keep export restrictions in place until the general election in April-May 2024, driving demand for white rice from countries like Vietnam and Thailand.

Dec 22 - Brazil's soybean crop cut to 160.3m mt in 2023/24, exports cut (Abiove)

- The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) reduced its 2023/24 estimates for the country’s soybean output to 160.3 million mt from the 161.9 million mt projection from December 12, the association said on Friday. The new projection is 1% higher than the 158.7 million mt from 2022/23, which itself was an upgrade from the previous 158.1 million mt estimate from the previous report.

- Brazil’s soybean exports are now projected at 99.3 million mt in 2024, below the 100.2 million mt previous estimates. The 2023 figure, on the other hand, was increased to 101.5 million mt, up by 1 million mt from the 100.5 million mt projection from December 12. Brazil’s 2024 and 2023 soybean crush estimates remained unchanged at 54.5 million mt and 53.6 million mt respectively.

Soymeal

- Abiove kept Brazil’s soymeal output projection unchanged at 41.7 million mt in 2024, and 41 million mt in 2023.
Abiove also raised its projection for next year’s soymeal exports to 21.7 million mt, from 21.6 million mt in previous estimates. The 2023 figure rose to 22.2 million mt compared to the 22 million mt projected earlier this month.
Abiove lowered its 2023/24 soybean ending stocks forecast to 9.2 million mt while it expected it to reach 10.5 million mt in the previous report. For 2022/23, the projection was also trimmed to 4.9 million mt compared to 5.3 million mt seen on December 12 and the 3.7 million mt from 2021/22.  

Soyoil

- Brazil’s soyoil production remained forecast at 11 million mt, while the current year estimates declined to 10.8 million mt from the 10.9 million mt estimates seen on December 12. The 2023 forecast was unchanged at 10.8 million mt. Soyoil 2024 exports projection dropped to 1.45 million mt from the previous report’s 1.6 million mt forecast. 
The current year projection remained stable at 2.35 million mt.


Dec 22 - Argentina rains boost soy prospects, reports show
Recent rains across Argentina's farming heartland are boosting prospects for the country's key soy crop, reports from the government and the leading grains exchange showed on Thursday. The area planted with soy in Argentina's 2023/24 campaign is estimated at 16.7 million hectares (41.3 million acres), the government said in a monthly crops report, 100,000 hectares larger than November's forecast after rains aided planting efforts in several farming regions.

Dec 22 - EU raises 2023/24 maize harvest estimate, cuts imports
The European Commission on Thursday increased its forecast for usable production of maize in the European Union in 2023/24, to 61.4 million metric tons from 59.9 million forecast a month ago. The revised estimate was 15.6% above last year's drought-hit crop though 10.8% below the average of the past five years, the Commission said in a monthly grain supply and demand update.


Dec 22 - Weekly Ukraine Agri report SPIKE_MARKET

Sold in a week;
· wheat furs. DAP Odessa, Dec-Jan @159$->160$
· corn DAP Odessa, Dec @156$->158$
· GMO soybean (28% dry) DAP Danube ports, Dec @17'700 UAH

- Ukraine:
· Export of grain, oil and processed products in December as of 20.12 amounted to: corn - 2 175 thousand tons, wheat - 920 thousand tons, barley - 72 thousand tons, soybean - 330 thousand tons, rapeseed - 183 thousand tons, sunflower - 33 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 426 thousand tons, soybean oil - 18 thousand tons, oilcake and sunflower meal - 263 thousand tons, cake and soybean oil - 60 thousand tons.


- Europe:
· As of 19.12, imports of agricultural products to the EU in the current season amounted to: wheat - 5.76 million tons (against 4.75 million tons last year for the same period), corn - 7.88 million tons (compared to 13.84 million tons), soybean - 5.17 million tons (compared to 5.14 million tons), rapeseed - 2.55 million tons (compared to 3.48 million tons), sunflower - 0.29 million tons (compared to 1.46 million tons).

- The liquidity of corn on the part of European buyers decreases with the approaching holidays, while the activity of trading in the direction of Ukrainian deep-water ports is quite significant. Buyers on the western border of Ukraine are ready to view offers at 127-130€ DAP / 145-150€ FCA depending on the delivery period.

- Demand for wheat in Ukrainian ports is active. The value of feed wheat is comparable to the corn price and is even worth several dollars. The demand for food wheat, the premium of which is up to $ 20 relative to forage, is restored. On the western border of Ukraine, the demand for wheat with a protein of 10.5% at 144-146€ was loaded into the European train.
Recent customer indicators:

- Sunflower in the domestic market traded in the range of 320-340$ (equivalent without VAT) delivered to the plant. At the same time, the Boglaria market bought sunflower at 410-425$ DAP with delivery in January. The main deterrent to export is obtaining a license for delivery to Romania and Bulgaria, which takes a long time to obtain. In December, Ukraine exported 34 thousand tons and the main destination countries were Spain and Greece.

- The European market is saturated with soy from the USA and Brazil, which in total is 82% (4.2 million mt) of imports in the current marketing season. At the same time, the share of imports of Ukrainian soybeans is 7.6% (393 thousand mt) in the overall structure, which is 2.4% less compared to last season for the same period.
In December, Egypt and Turkey became the main soybean markets from Ukraine, where 146 thousand and 82 thousand tons were exported, respectively. Price levels have not undergone significant changes in the previous week.

Dec 22 - Grain market in Russia and in the world (Sovecon)

· U.S. cereal prices rose slightly on Thursday. SRW's March wheat contract closed at $6.12/bush ($225/t; +0.4% compared to Wednesday). Euronext wheat quotes slipped to €222.25/t ($245/t; -0.2%). American corn rose to $4.72/bush ($186/t; +0.6%).
· The weakening of the dollar once again provided support for commodity markets. On December 20, the dollar index closed at 101.8 (+0.6% compared to Wednesday).


· The European Commission raised the estimate of maize production in the EU by 1.5 million tons to 61.4 million tons. The estimate is still 10.8% below the long-term average.


· Consulting agency Strategie Grains forecasts soft wheat production in the EU in 2024 at 124.8 million tons against 125.9 million tons this year. Grain market in Russia and worldwide. Top news for this hour:

· Grain prices declined on Wednesday. SRW's March wheat contract closed at $6.10/bush ($224/t; -2.0% compared to Tuesday). Euronext wheat prices slipped slightly to €222.75/t ($244/t; -0.1%). US corn closed at $4.70/bush ($185/t; -0.6%).
· Pressure on cereal prices has strengthened the dollar. On December 20, the dollar index closed at 102.4 (+0.3% compared to Friday).


· Soft wheat sown area in France will fall to 4.2m ha in 2024, the lowest since 2000. This was announced by the consulting company Argus Media on Wednesday. A week earlier, the Ministry of Agriculture had issued a more optimistic forecast, predicting 4.49m ha of cultivated area under soft wheat.


· Exports of wheat from the EU from the beginning of the season to December 18 amounted to 14.5 million tons, which is 16% lower than last year's figure, the European Commission reported, citing customs data.


· Argentina’s new president, Javier Miley, on Wednesday signed a decree outlining economic reforms, including the lifting of export restrictions and easing of regulations amid a severe economic crisis. The reforms include plans to privatize state-owned companies, but Miley did not specify whom.


Dec 21 - Egypt's GASC announces tenders for soyoil, sunoil in Feb-March (AgriCensus)

Egypt's state-backed oils buyer, the General Authority for the Supply of Commodities (GASC), has launched an international tender for vegetable oils with delivery in February or March after a near two-month break, local sources told Agricensus on Thursday.

GASC will consider proposals for the supply of at least 30,000 mt of soybean oil and 10,000 mt of sunflower oil for delivery from February 14 to 29 or for delivery from March 1 to 14, 2024.

The move came against the backdrop of falling prices for soybean oil and a narrowing spread between soybean and sunflower oils.

Offers are to be made on payment at sight basis and payment with 270-day supplier facilities while the tender is expected to close on Wednesday December 27.

GASC's most recent successful international tender, which closed in November, the agency booked 23,000 mt of soybean oil at $1,300/mt CFR Egypt from three international suppliers.

Delivery was for January and February.
In addition, at the previous tender, the agenct booked 27,500 mt of sunflower oil from three different suppliers with delivery in February 2024 at $930/mt CFR Egypt.
At the same time, the last local tender was canceled.


Dec 21 - Farm, rail companies urge reopening of US-Mexico crossings shut over migrants
Dozens of major U.S. agricultural groups on Wednesday urged the U.S. to reopen two rail crossings on the Texas-Mexico border in an effort to restore the trade routes shuttered due to increased migrant crossings, saying they are causing steep export losses. In a sharply worded letter to U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, the growers - representing corn, milk, rice and soybean producers, among others - said the crossings could be easily reopened.

Dec 21 - French wheat area to fall 11% to lowest since 2000 after rain – Argus
The area sown with soft wheat for the 2024 harvest in France is set to fall to its lowest level since at least 2000 at 4.24 million hectares (mln ha) as two months of heavy rain took their toll on crops, consultancy Argus Media said on Wednesday. The estimate is down by 530,000 hectares or 11% from the current marketing year's crop and includes an estimated 54,500 hectares of late planting that farmers are set to sow in the coming days, Argus, which took over the Agritel consultancy, said.


Dec 20 - Brazil’s soybean output cut to 153m mt, massive loss in Mato Grosso (Itaú BBA)

- Brazil’s largest agricultural-producing state, Mato Grosso, is set to have its largest soybean crop loss in history, reducing the country’s overall 2023/24 output to 153 million mt, according to estimates released Wednesday by Itaú BBA consulting.
“We cut Mato Grosso’s yields, leading to a 20% crop loss compared with initial estimates as we expect the state to harvest less than 40 million mt of soybeans,” the Itaú BBA said.
“If our estimates prove to be correct, this will be the largest soybean crop loss in Mato Grosso’s history,” the consulting firm added.

- Weather models had called for improved rainfall volumes across Brazil’s center-west and north/northeast regions, including Mato Grosso, from the beginning of December, but the first half of the month remained drier than average, jeopardizing crops in drought-affected areas.

- Considering the new 153 million mt output figure for the country, which is 5 million mt lower than the consultancy’s estimates from two weeks ago, and a 3% increase in domestic consumption, Itaú BBA pegged Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean exports between 95 and 96 million mt.

- The consulting firm sees Argentina’s 2023/24 soybean production at 50 million mt, leading to a global balance sheet “slightly tighter than initially expected, although close to 2022/23 levels.”

- It caveated, however, that global grains and oilseeds demand is expected to grow around 5% on the year, which will impact soybean prices during the season.


Dec 20 - Ukraine's losses from November-December border blockade could hit $1.5 bln (NBU - APK Inform)

- The National Bank of Ukraine has projected that the reduction in Ukraine's foreign trade volume, resulting from restrictions on freight transport movement through the western borders in November and December, may amount to $1.5 billion. Notably, the specified reduction reached $860 mln in November, with an anticipated additional decrease of $620 mln in December, as reported by RBC-Ukraine.

    "According to the NBU's estimates, the blocking of specific land crossing points along Ukraine's western borders resulted in export losses of $160 mln in November, coupled with a reduction in imports by $700 mln. Even greater impact on imports is attributed to their higher reliance on road transport compared to exports," the experts clarified.

The NBU also noted that, according to the State Customs Service of Ukraine, the share of road transport in the value of exports was approximately 35% in 2023, while for imports, it accounted for a larger share at 70%.

"In November, import losses were partially offset by an increase in supplies through alternative routes, particularly by rail. Similarly, export losses were compensated by higher shipments via the new sea corridor, with the volume nearly matching the peak values of transportation through the “grain corridor”," stated the NBU.

    "The reorientation of imported fuel supplies to rail transport, the ongoing rise in transshipment for both export and import cargoes through the new sea corridor, and a partial easing of the blockade in the second half of December allow us to revise the projections for future losses. Estimates now suggest a reduction to $120 mln per month for exports and $500 mln for imports," summarized the message.


Dec 20 - Grain market in Russia and in the world (Sovecon)


· U.S. wheat prices jumped on Monday. SRW's March wheat contract closed at $6.20/bush ($228/t; +3.0% compared to Friday). Euronext wheat prices rose to €231.75/t ($251/t; +1.8%). US corn closed at $4.85/bush ($191/t; +0.2%).

 

· The price was supported by a large sale of American wheat to China. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, China purchased 440,000 tons of SRW wheat, one of the largest shipments in more than a decade. Rumors about the sale have been supporting the market since late last week.

 

· Corn quotations were under pressure from the favorable weather in Brazil. Nevertheless, they rose marginally, supported by the US Department of Agriculture’s good export inspection results. According to the agency, in the last week of November, 1.2 million tons of corn were exported from the United States, compared to the estimate of 350-900 thousand tons.

 

· Australian bureau ABARES raised its wheat harvest forecast for 2023/24 to 25.5 million tons from 25.4 million tons last month. Harvest is still expected to be 37% lower than last year's. According to analysts at the bureau, rains in late November slowed down harvesting in parts of eastern Australia and likely caused a decline in the quality of grain in the unthreshed areas.

 

· Grain exports from Ukraine in the 2023/24 season decreased to 13.4 million tons from 18.3 million tons last season, the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine reports. According to the Ministry, in November 2023 Ukraine exported 3.86 million tons of grain, including 1.3 million tons of wheat and 2.4 million tons of maize.

· The Indian government may approve the import of 1m tons of wheat from Russia to stabilize rising domestic wheat prices ahead of the March-April 2024 elections for the lower house of parliament (Lok Sabha), New India Express reported, citing sources. For this purpose, the import tariff, which currently stands at 40%, could be reduced. Sources familiar with the situation said a decision would be made by the end of December if wheat crops in several states were reduced.

 

· Egyptian company GASC on December 5 will hold a tender for the supply of wheat. Payment is due upon delivery and after 270 days.


Dec 20 - China soy, corn imports from Brazil surge in November
China's soybean imports from Brazil surged 108% in November from the same month a year earlier, data showed on Wednesday, as the South American nation overtook the United States in a period traditionally dominated by U.S supplies. China imported 5.29 million metric tons of the oilseed from Brazil in November, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

Dec 20 - EU 2023/24 soybean imports stable by Dec 17, rapeseed down 27%
European Union soybean imports so far in the 2023/24 season that started in July had reached 5.17 million metric tons by Dec. 17, nearly unchanged compared with 5.15 million a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. EU rapeseed imports in the same period totalled 2.56 million tons, down 27% against 3.48 million a year earlier.


Dec 19 - South Korea intends to end profitable dog meat business, even as the Philippines announces cuts in 2023 meat imports (Selinawamucii)

 

These two happenings are rocking the East Asia meat scene in the holiday season when meat consumption is usually high.

In South Korea, the new bill seeks a stoppage in rearing dogs for meat production as well as their slaughter. Seoul intends to begin the ban on dog meat in 2027 following a 36-month grace period. South Korea’s new agriculture minister Song Mi-ryung told parliament during her confirmation that she will “certainly” support the bill. There is a caveat, however, in that dog meat operators ought to receive compensation, a suggestion that Song seconds.

Korea’s dog meat industry is a relatively big one and boasts 34 butchering firms, alongside 219 distribution channels.

The government says there are 1,150 dog farms around the nation and 1600 restaurants that sell dog meat-based food. This means a distribution of 1.4 restaurants of this rare delicacy for every 1 dog farm.

Despite this support by the minister, the legislation faces a drag for lack of support by the opposition law makers. The opposition stands with the owners of 520,000 dogs who claim compensation worth 7 trillion won ($5.39 billion).
Philippines has Enough Domestic Meat

Further afield, Korea’s south-east Asia neighbour, the Philippines, has drastically cut meat imports in 2023 following domestic replenishment. Estimates put total meat shipments into the country to reach 1.09 metric tonnes end December, a drop of 8.1% from 2022.

UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) however states that pig imports may decline at a lower rate than bovine imports. This is because the Philippines extended the period for low-tariff rate pork imports to the end of 2023. The country has been grappling with African Swine Fever (ASF) in 2023 and hence shipping pork from abroad.

The government raised the bar on local meat production, which declined imports by 18.9% in October 2023 from October 2022. During that month, the Department of Agriculture’s Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI) reported that meat imports dropped to 95.98 million kg.

Pork, whose prices had risen in July 2023 due to ASF, fell by 26.35% in October from increasing local supplies.

Beef, on the other hand, slumped by 22.1% to 13.96 million kg. This is even as buffalo meat imports slumped to 1.987 million kg,  42.5% lower than October 2022’s.


Dec 19 - Deadly Argentina storm a blessing and curse for beleaguered grains sector
A deadly summer storm over the weekend in Argentina has helped quench crops still reeling from a historic drought, a meteorologist said on Monday, although the storm paused operations at a key grains port. The intense storm, which began on Saturday in the south of Buenos Aires province, left at least 13 people dead in the port town of Bahia Blanca before moving north and bringing much-needed rains to the country's core agriculture zone in northern Buenos Aires and in the south and center of Santa Fe province.

Dec 18 - Asian fertiliser buyers turn away from key exporter China amid growing curbs
Asian fertiliser buyers are seeking alternatives to Chinese supplies on concerns the world's top exporter has become an increasingly unreliable supplier after curbs on shipments to protect its domestic market, buyers and analysts said. China is the world's biggest exporter of phosphate and a major supplier of urea, but since 2021 it has imposed measures including export quotas and lengthy inspection requirements on the fertiliser ingredients to cool domestic prices.

Dec 18 - Biden backs ethanol industry on low-emission aviation fuel tax credits
The Biden administration said on Friday it will recognize a methodology favored by the ethanol industry in guidance to companies looking to claim tax credits for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), a pivotal win for the politically powerful U.S. corn lobby. But the administration will also update the methodology by March 1, which leaves some uncertainty for corn-based ethanol producers, as it could ultimately tighten requirements around SAF feedstocks.


Dec 18 - Ukraine drives record grain exports at Romania's Constanta port
Romania's Black Sea port of Constanta has smashed its grain export record this year thanks to a surge in shipments from Ukraine, the port authority told Reuters on Friday, with its capacity set to grow as infrastructure projects advance. The port shipped 32.6 million metric tons of grain in January-November, it said. Its previous annual record was a little over 25 million tons.


Dec 15 - Ukraine SPIKE_MARKET weekly report

Sold in a week
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Danube, Dec @7'250 UAH
· wheat furs. DAP Odessa, Dec @159$
· corn DAP Odessa (wagons), Dec @157$->156$
· corn DAP Odessa (car), Dec @155$->156$
· sunflower DAP center. Bolagria, Jan-Feb @415$

- Ukraine:
· FOB prices in Ukrainian ports of the Black Sea remain rather volatile due to fluctuations in freight rates.
- Europe:
· Imports to the EU as of 10.12: wheat - 5.65 million tons (compared to 4.43 million tons last year for the same period), corn - 7.6 million tons (compared to 13.4 million tons), soybean - 4.83 million tons (compared to 4.9 million tons), rape - 2.48 million tons (compared to 3.24 million tons), sunflower - 0.242 million tons (compared to 1.4 million tons).

- Prices for corn in the direction of Ukrainian ports have stabilized due to a decrease in the hype for the goods. The offer is stable on the part of sellers, while demand slows down from buyers. The decrease in the rate of export shipments from the ports of the Black Sea due to weather conditions leads to the accumulation of goods. With the approach of the New Year holidays, the activity of buyers decreases in all markets.

- Prices for feed wheat in the direction of Ukrainian ports began to rise. The premium for feed wheat in relation to the price of corn is an average of 5$. The food wheat was traded in the direction of the ports with a premium of up to $20 relative to the feed price.

- Prices for sunflower oil stabilized and traded within 830-840$ DAP/CIF Bulgaria. At the moment when Ukrainian plants reduced prices for sunflower, a certain part of the producers contracted for Bulgaria with the supply of sunflower in January-February. Today, sunflower prices with delivery to the plant in Ukraine were traded within 330-340$ (equiv. without VAT). The last deal on the solar collector with delivery to Bulgaria was concluded at levels of 405-415$.

- Soybeans prices went up in all directions. Given the growing interest in the Argentine crop in trade, soybeans prices mainly depend on the weather in Brazil. According to USDA, production in South America increased by 25 million tons compared to last year, and despite an increase in domestic demand for 8 million tons (mainly due to Argentine processing), the world's total reserves are expected to be more than 10 million tons.

 

Dec 15 - Brazil farmers face soy seed shortage as El Nino spurs replanting
Brazilian soy farmers, some of whom were forced to replant their beans due to adverse weather at the onset of the season, are facing a dearth of seeds on the market as suppliers have run out of the main cultivars, Marino Colpo, chief executive of seed company Boa Safra Sementes, told Reuters in an interview. A cultivar is a plant bred for certain desired traits.

Dec 15 - Argentina reopens grains export registry after temporary pause
Argentina's government has reopened its grain export registry, according to a government statement on Thursday, which is needed to allow companies from the key agricultural supplier to ship major crops like processed soybeans and corn. The move follows a sharp devaluation of the local peso currency, along with other economic measures announced by the new government of President Javier Milei.

Dec 15 - Argentina resumes export license register after economic announcements (AgriCensus)- The Argentine government reopened the register of export licenses for grains and oilseeds Thursday after a three-day break. The register was suspended at 5 pm local time on Monday, ahead of the announcement of economic measures by the new government of Javier Milei on the following day. According to a statement published on Thursday, the applications register was resumed at 1030 am local time.- On Wednesday, sales activity was slow as the market waited for the register to be reopened and an increase in export taxes to be confirmed.- Corn sales totaled 29,215 mt while soybean sales reached 12,342 mt and wheat 22,602 mt, Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR) data shows. In the first 12 days of December domestic sales of grains amounted to 1.63  million mt, below the 2.39 million mt from the same period in 2022 and 2.24 million mt from 2021, according to BCR data.  According to BCR economist, Guido D'Angelo, the register for export sales opened once again, along with changes in the exchange rate, are probably going to foster new business in the coming days.- On Tuesday, Milei’s government announced a 54% exchange rate devaluation from the 366 pesos per dollar valid before the decree.- The government also later confirmed export taxes would rise to 15% for all products, therefore increasing wheat and corn taxes, which were previously at 12%. The only exception was soybeans and soybean products, where the tax will remain at 33% and 31%, respectively.


Dec 14 - Argentina's Milei increases exchange rate by over 100%, hints at higher export taxes (AgriCensus) 


- Argentina's new government of libertarian President Javier Milei will seek to raise export taxes to 15% on some grains, though that would not impact tariffs on soy, an industry source told Reuters on Wednesday. The news comes a day after Economy Minister Luis Caputo laid out economic measures to fix an embattled economy, including raising taxes on some exports, though he had said that this would not apply to the agricultural sector ?

 

- Argentina’s new government, that only took office on Monday, announced a package of economic measures late Tuesday, including a major exchange rate devaluation while hinting at other initiatives that could affect the country’s agricultural export sector.

 

- The country’s new finance minister Luis Caputo said in a press conference that the official exchange rate will be now 800 pesos per US dollar, up over 100% from the 365 pesos per dollar previously in place. Although Caputo first said there would be no increases in export taxes on agricultural products, official sources later mentioned export taxes (retenciones) would increase to 15% for all products.

 

- It is still unclear if, how or when this measure will be implemented as it requires parliamentary approval. That said, a 15% tariff would mean higher taxes for wheat and corn exporters that currently pay 12%. The one exception to the cross-sector 15% rate would be the soybean complex which already pays more than that, with soybean exports paying 33% of export taxes.

 

Dec 14 - Brazil's grain cooperative Coamo to invest about $700 million for 2024-2026 period

 

Brazil's biggest grain farmer cooperative Coamo announced on Wednesday plans to invest 3.5 billion reais between 2024 and 2026, as it looks to build a corn-based ethanol plant and expand grains storage capacity. Some 1.67 billion reais will be used to build the plant, Coamo said, which should produce as much as 258 million liters of ethanol per year and start operations early 2026.


Dec 13 - Argentina suspends export license applications for agricultural products (AgriCensus)

- The Argentine government has suspended new export license applications for grains and oilseeds until further notice as the new president, Javier Milei, is expected to announce economic measures later this Tuesday. The suspension officially began on Monday at 5 pm local time, after a day of skyrocketing corn sales, as exporters rushed to pay export taxes at the current exchange rate of 360 pesos to the dollar ahead of a possible devaluation of the local currency expected to be announced Tuesday.

- On Monday alone, corn export licenses amounted to 1.7 million mt while on December 6, they peaked at 2 million mt, data compiled by analyst Javier Preciado Patiño shows. Argentina is currently sowing the 2023/24 corn crop and exports are expected to reach 36-38 million mt, Patiño told Agricensus. Argentina's corn crop is expected to reach 50 million mt, according to Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (Bage) data.

- Currently, soybean export taxes are set at 33%, soymeal at 31%, and soyoil, corn, and wheat at 12%.

- From November 19, when Milei was elected, to December 11, export license applications (DJVEs) totaled 10.2 million mt, mostly for corn (7.6 million mt) and soymeal (1.4 million mt). This represents $2.8 billion, which translates to $552 million in export taxes.

- With the peso's devaluation, the government’s gain in tax revenues would be much higher, so the strategy is reportedly to stop the selling spree to obtain more revenues when export licenses are resumed and the peso is set at a new value.

Most sources familiar with the matter expect the taxes will remain unchanged in the short term.
However, others say rumors point to an adjustment, which could see a cut in taxes for the soybean complex and/or an increase in those currently applied to grain exports.


Dec 13 - France sees fall in winter wheat and barley sowing after rain
France is expected to see a sharp fall in the sowing of winter cereals after heavy rain disrupted field work in the European Union's largest grain producer, the farm ministry said on Tuesday. However, the area cultivated with winter rapeseed, France's main oilseed crop, was seen holding steady as sowing took place before the wet weather arrived, the ministry said in a crop report.

Dec 13 - Argentina grains sector set for key meet with new Milei government - industry source
Argentina's grains export sector is set to meet with the government of new libertarian President Javier Milei late on Tuesday after an expected package of economic reform measures is announced, a senior industry source told Reuters. Argentina is one of the world's top exporters of processed soy meal and oil and the No. 3 for corn, though the sector has been impacted by a drought that hit the most recent harvest and tight capital controls that limit access to dollars.


Dec 12 - Russian wheat export prices rise further as weather hampers shipments
Export prices for Russian wheat rose further last week as the situation with shipments from ports remained difficult due to difficult weather conditions, analysts say. The price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in January was $241 per metric ton, up $5 from the previous week, the IKAR agriculture consultancy reported.

Dec 12 - Brazil's green coffee exports up 18.2% in November - industry group
Brazilian green coffee exports rose 18.2% in November compared to a year earlier, as shipments of the robusta variety soared in the period, exporters association Cecafe said on Monday. Farmers shipped abroad 4.1 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in November, according to Cecafe.


Dec 12 - Bulgarian Ag ministry proposes draft quotas for Ukrainian imports (AgriCensus)

Bulgaria’s agriculture ministry has proposed draft quotas for the import of some Ukrainian goods, including sunflower and sunflower oil, although how the quotas will work and when they will come into force remains unclear, while many Ukrainian sunflower sellers are still awaiting the appropriate documentation to export.

In a notice published by the official Bulgarian media resource, the ministry extended the list of agricultural goods and food products that can be imported to 10.

In addition to wheat, sunflower, rapeseed, and corn, refined and unrefined sunflower oil, white sugar, powdered milk, honey, and frozen raspberries, will all fall under the import license regime that has been in place since the beginning of December, after passing all the approval procedures.

The ministry is currently discussing quotas of 923,033 mt for sunflower, 79,500 mt for sunflower oil, and 11,711 mt for refined sunflower oil.

According to the official document, the volume of the quota was set based on the 2023 harvest, carryover stocks from 2022, consumption and crash volumes, and other indicators.

Market sources meanwhile do not expect the quotas to be approved soon, with the ministry due to meet with Bulgarian associations on Thursday, 14 December to discuss the matter, following which the draft will need to be presented to the European Parliament in Brussels.

“There will be a big meeting between the government here and all associations of crusher, farmers, dairy producers, then on December 18 [the ministry] is going to Brussels to present it to the EU parliament before adopting it,” the Bulgaria-based broker said.
"I think that before Christmas nothing will be clear," the broker added.

At the same time, Bulgarian crushers are in no rush to see quotas removed as the prices announced by Ukrainian sellers are high in comparison with those offered for local sunflower, while most Ukrainian sellers still do not have the necessary documents for export to Bulgaria.
“Above is as per the working paper from our AgMin, and I hope it will come into operation very soon, but it’s a bit too late for everyone,” said another broker based in Bulgaria.
"The last offered levels from Ukraine were at $430/mt by truck, but that's above the present bids here for Bulgarian origin and it's late because we missed the first half of the season that cannot be compensated," the broker added.

At the same time, according to market sources, some Bulgarian crushers tried to import sunflowers from Ukraine but faced defaults as delivery deadlines were constantly postponed and, in the end, deliveries were disrupted as the Ukrainian sellers lacked the necessary documentation.

According to the latest monthly update from the European Commission, the sunflower harvest in Bulgaria in the 2023/24 season fell by 23% compared to the previous season to 1.62 million mt.


Dec 11 - Dairy Price Update: US butter and cheese prices lift (IHSmarkit)

    CME spot Cheddar blocks rose by 6 cents this week to $1.58 per pound
    The US is experiencing a shortage of butterfat, which has resulted in high butter prices
    Whey prices remain above summer lows but haven’t increased

PRODUCTION

It seems like the reduced milk production in the US had a significant impact on the production of Class IV products in October. The production of butter dropped by 0.9% compared to the same month last year, totaling 160.6 million pounds.

Cheese production seems to have performed better, with cheesemakers producing 1.2 billion pounds of cheese during October, an increase of 0.8% compared to the same month last year. However, there was a complete shift in production of Italian varieties, which rose by 1.4%, driven primarily by stronger production of Mozzarella, which increased by 2.3% compared to the previous year. Cheddar production, on the other hand, fell by 2.5%, which pulled the entire American category down by 0.3% compared to October 2022.
CHEESE

CME spot Cheddar blocks rose by 6 cents this week to $1.58 per pound while Barrels increased by 3 cents to $1.55. Though milk production has lowered recently, cheese vats remain full. The continued investment in US cheese production capacity is likely to increase cheese output. The stronger output of these cheese varieties hints at better domestic demand and greater export prospects for Mozzarella after a slower summer of orders.
BUTTER

The US is experiencing a shortage of butterfat, which has resulted in high butter prices. The CME spot butter increased by 1.5 cents this week, reaching $2.67 per pound. Even though this is a significant decrease from the pre-holiday peak, it's still a high price. In October, US butter production was exactly as predicted, totaling 160.6 million pounds, which is 0.9% less than last year. Due to the high prices in the US butter market, exports in October decreased by 72.2% compared to the previous year. Global butter shipments have been decreasing steadily, but this is a seasonally low point, so there is a possibility of a turnaround in this trend.
POWDERS

Whey prices remain above summer lows but haven't increased. This week, CME spot whey slipped to 39.5¢, down half a cent from last Friday. Strong cheese production resulted in ample whey stream. Manufacturers prefer to produce higher protein products, leading to a 2.5% rise in whey protein concentrate production and a 3.8% increase in whey protein isolates production. Dry whey exports from the US decreased significantly in October, down 37.6% from the same period last year. Exporters might continue to face challenges until Chinese hog producers recover, which could depend on the overall state of the Chinese economy.


Dec 11 - China corn output hits record on larger acreage sown
China produced a record corn crop this year, up 4% compared to a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday, with an increase in the area planted with the grain more than compensating for damage caused by summer typhoons.  Output of 288.84 million metric tons matched earlier forecasts by the agriculture ministry and adds to bumper corn crops from other big global producers that have weighed on global prices.

Dec 11 - India's wheat stocks hit 7-year low as govt sells more to calm prices  
India's wheat inventories at state warehouses have dropped to 19 million metric tons, the lowest in seven years, two government sources said on Friday, as two years of falling production forced state-run agencies to sell more grain to private players. Last year, India, the world's second-biggest wheat producer, banned exports after output was curtailed due to a heat wave and overseas sales picked up as Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent global prices to multi-year highs.


Dec 08 - European butter price continues to gain with consumer demand brisk (IHSmarkit)

- The EU Commission butter price made its 12th consecutive gain this week
- Butter demand continues to be reported as exceptionally high as the baking and holiday season continues
- Cheese inventories continue to be reported as low

It was another week of gains for European dairy prices, with Emmental prices the only notable exception.

The EU Commission's Emmental price collapsed 6.2% to €5,764/metric ton, its lowest level since July 2022. There was a slight (-0.4%) weakening to the cheddar price, which stood at €3,456/t. Meanwhile, the Edam price firmed by 0.9% to €4,262/t, while the gouda price crept up by 0.4% to €4,229/t.

In contrast to the price drop, Emmental demand was reported as ‘very good’ by the Kempten Exchange in Germany. Reports continue to say cheese inventories are low, with overall cheese demand remaining robust.

The EU Commission butter price made its 12th consecutive gain, this week gaining 1.6% to €5,363/t. Butter demand continues to be reported as exceptionally high as the baking and holiday season continues, with consumer demand brisk.

After last week’s loss, the WMP price returned most of the loss (+1.4% w/w) to €3,646/t. The SMP price was almost unchanged w/w/ (+0.1%) to €2,617/t, with the whey price recording a modest 0.3% increase to €840/t.

The upcoming holidays are leading to a slow market, with little activity taking place.


Dec 08 - Ukraine Agri SPIKE_MARKET report

- Sold in a week
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Odessa, Dec @7'150 UAH
· wheat furs. DAP Odessa, Dec @6'000 UAH
· DAP barley Odessa, Dec @5'700 UAH
· DAP corn Odessa, Dec @6'270 UAH
· corn DAP Odessa (car), Dec @153$
· corn DAP Odessa (train), Dec @155$
· corn DAP border Romania (train), Dec @132€

- Ukraine:
· In November, total agricultural exports exceeded 5 million tons, reaching the highest level since April this year.
· The structure of agricultural exports by means of transport was struck by its diversification: automobile - 464 thousand tons, railway - 941 thousand tons, river - 1.5 million tons, sea - 2.7 million tons.
· In November, the leaders of export items were: Black Sea Port - 1.4 million tons, Izmail - 1 million tons, Odessa - 900 thousand tons, Reni - 485 thousand tons, Southern - 389 thousand tons, Volynsky - 250 thousand tons, Chop - 165 thousand tons, Yagodyn - 133 thousand tons.

- Prices for corn supplied to the Black Sea ports remain stable within 155-158$. The corn market in northern Italy offers prices from 210€ to 218€ depending on the period and mode of transport. Traders in western Ukraine offer corn prices from 130€ to 155€, given the type of delivery in Ukrainian cars or cars such as "Euro cars".

- World feed wheat prices are on average $10 higher than corn prices. However, due to the limited demand in the Black Sea ports, buyers voice prices in the range of 154-157$ for feed wheat. In terms of food wheat, prices range from $170 to $178 depending on the period of supply and quality.
On the market of Northern Italy, the price of feed wheat is moving in the range of 225-230€. Italian pancakes actively buy Ukrainian wheat with 11% protein and are ready to pay 235-240€ with delivery to Italy.
On the western border, feed wheat prices range from 145€ to 165€, depending on the type of supply, and the food wheat with protein at 11% range from 150€ to 175€, given the type of supply in Ukrainian wagons or in Eurocars.

- The global decline in oil prices and the restriction of processors by raw materials for the next month in Ukraine led to the fall in the prices of sunflower in the domestic market. Prices dropped to 310-335$ without VAT with delivery to the factory.
Prices for sunflower in Bulgaria remained in the range of 420-440 dollars. Low river freight and open import opportunities for sunflower to Bulgaria become the best alternative to oil for producers up to 40$ per ton compared to the domestic market.

- The soybean market in the last week was focused on domestic demand, which was covered by processing enterprises. Prices in the ports were within 455-465$ with delivery in December. The domestic market bought soybeans at 420-440$ without VAT delivered to the factory.
The Northern Italian market was traded at 475-490€ delivered by GMO soy.


Dec 08 - US farmers plan big 2024 soy crops, 'gut says' less corn
U.S. farmers are likely to plant more soybeans in 2024 as rising demand for soy-based biofuels should boost profits, and many plan to cut back on corn acreage with futures prices for that grain hovering around three-year lows. A larger U.S. soybean crop would help meet booming demand for renewable diesel fuel and animal feed at a time when drought is slashing soybean production in Brazil, the world's top supplier. Another top supplier, Argentina, lacks soybeans after a severe drought last year.

Dec 08 - West Africa counts on chemicals to curb new cotton pest
Without pausing to wipe the sweat from their brows, workers in northern Ivory Coast picked cotton by the handful - a crop saved by the use of extra insecticides after a new pest wreaked record damage across West and Central Africa last season. The Indian cotton jassid or Amrasca biguttula insect appeared as if from nowhere across much of the region's cotton belt in 2022-23, injecting a toxin into the plants that led to a near 25% production slump year-on-year. Some countries lost over half their forecast harvest.


Dec 07 - China Nov soybean imports up 7.8% on year, less than expected
China imported 7.92 million metric tons of soybeans in November, customs data showed on Thursday, rising 7.8% from a year earlier but lower than traders' expectations due to slower clearing of cargoes at customs. The world's top importer of soybeans was expected by some traders to bring in as much as 10 million tons last month, after large purchases of the oilseed from top supplier Brazil.

Dec 07 - India plans to discourage ethanol production to prioritise sugar
India is planning to discourage the diversion of sugar for ethanol production as part of efforts to ensure sufficient supplies of the sweetener in the local market, government and trade sources said on Wednesday. Lower diversion for ethanol will help the world's second biggest sugar producer in increasing output of the sweetener, which is expected to fall because of below normal rainfall in key growing states.


Dec 06 - Indonesia expects 10 mln metric tons of rice during peak harvest in 2024
Indonesia is targeting ten million metric tons of rice output during peak harvest in March to April next year, the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday. Rice harvested in March is projected at around 5.56 million tons, with harvest in April seen at 4.51 million tons, the ministry said on a statement.

Dec 06 - ICE rejects 41% of coffee in new grading round, new lots arrive
Coffee graders working for the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rejected 41% of the arabica coffee lots sent to the exchange's warehouses to be certified for delivery against futures contracts in a new grading round, ICE said on Tuesday. Graders evaluated 11,051 bags of a total volume of 27,834 bags that was pending grading, passing 6,475 bags while rejecting 4,576 bags.


Dec 05 - Canadian wheat, canola harvests expand, rebound from dry conditions
Canadian farmers will harvest more wheat and canola than was expected several months ago, as crops rallied from dry conditions that threatened yields, a government report showed on Monday. Statistics Canada's crop estimates tend to increase in the annual December report, but the agency's raised estimate for all-wheat production surpassed industry expectations.

Dec 05 - US crop insurance provides billions in profit for insurers - gov't agency
Roughly one-third of U.S. government spending to insure the nation's crops since 2011 has gone to insurance companies that derive more than $1 billion in profit from the program each year, according to a government watchdog's report released on Monday. The federal crop insurance program, administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, is meant to protect farmers from financial losses after natural disasters or other events that result in crop losses or price declines.


Dec 04 - French grain sowings still slow while ratings extend fall
French cereal sowings had again made little progress last weekwhile crop ratings extended their fall, farm office FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday, in a sign that heavy rainfall since last month has taken a toll on crops. Farmers had sown 82% of the expected soft wheat area for next year's harvest in the European Union's largest grower by Nov. 27, FranceAgriMer said in a crop report.

Dec 04 - Historic weather in Brazil’s top soy state keeps pressure on crop: Braun
Exceptionally hot and dry weather in Brazil’s leading soybean region persisted for a second consecutive month through November, maintaining yield concerns. The crop-heavy northern section of Brazil’s top soy and corn state Mato Grosso experienced the driest October-November period in at least a quarter century.


Dec 01 - Ukraine SPIKE_MARKET weekly report


Sold in a week

· corn DAP Odessa, December letter @149$->152$->153$->151$

· corn DAP Odessa, Dec @154$->156$->155$

· DAP corn Mon. Italy (car), Dec @215€

· GMO Soybean (28% dry) DAP Danube Ports, Letter-Dec @17’600 UAH

 

Ukraine:

 Late crop harvest in 2023 as of 26.11: maize - 26 million tons (85% of the area); sunflower - 11.9 million tons (99% of the area); soybean - 4.77 million tons (99% of the area).

· Ukraine returns to powerful monthly exports! As of 29.11, the total agricultural exports amounted to 6.1 million tons, in particular:

- corn - 2.3 million tons,
 - wheat - 1.2 million tons,
- barley - 189 thousand tons,
- soybeans - 507 thousand tons,
- rape - 326 thousand tons,
- sunflower - 36 thousand tons,
- soybean oil - 30 thousand tons,
- sunflower oil - 517 thousand tons,
- rapeseed oil - 48 thousand tons.

 

Europe:

Imports to the EU as of 19.11:


 

 


Dec 01 - Brazil's 2024 soy production to fall below last season's, Patria forecasts
Brazil's soybean crop will reach 150.67 million metric tons in the 2023/24 cycle, below last season's 154.10 million tons, consultancy Patria Agronegocios said on Thursday, as it factors in the effects of a severe drought in key producing states. The projection represents a 2.2% drop from Brazil's soy output in the 2022/23 cycle, Patria said.

Dec 01 - Dry soil to curb Asia's early 2024 rice output, pressure supply
Asian off-season rice production is poised to take a hit as dry planting conditions, shrinking reservoirs and forecasts for continued El Nino weather are set to reduce early 2024 yields, further tightening supplies and spurring food inflation. India, the world's biggest rice exporter and No.2 supplier Thailand are expected to see production from their off-season crops decline in the first quarter, while Indonesia, a leading importer, is still reeling from drought as farmers plant their crops, traders and analysts said.


Nov 30 - Global wheat prices sink amid expectations of bumper Russian crop (IHSmarkit)

 

 

Global wheat prices have been subdued in recent weeks amid expectations of a bumper Russian harvest in 2023/24. Russia is expected to have another bumper wheat harvest, with the US Department of Agriculture projecting Russian’s wheat production is forecast at 90 million metric tons. Although this is a 2% decline compared to the previous marketing year, it is still 13% higher than the five-year average and the second highest output in the country’s history.

Russia is the one of the world’s largest wheat producers, and the leading wheat exporter. It accounts for approximately 12% of all wheat production according to the USDA. Favorable weather conditions contributed to the country’s record production figures for both 2022/23 and 2023/24. Winter wheat accounts for approximately 70% of Russia’s total production. Autumn precipitation created favorable conditions for planting, setting the winter crop up for a positive outcome. Timely rainfall in the country further continued favorable conditions, resulting in adequate soil moisture needed for strong crop yields.

 

Furthermore, the record production and export figures are consistent with the country’s harvested area. Russia’s 2023/24 wheat harvested area is forecast by the USDA at 29 million hectares, unchanged from 2022/23. This figure is the highest recorded wheat harvested area in the country’s history, contributing to the record production and exports.

Following the country’s strong crop yield, Russia’s wheat exports are expected to hit an all-time high. According to Reuters, the Russian Agricultural Minister Dmitry Patrushev expects the country’s grain exports to be over 65 million metric tons in 2023/24, predominantly wheat. The USDA forecast Russia’s wheat exports at a record 50 million metric tons in 2023/24, a 5% increase from the 2022/23 estimate.

 

Strong exports from Russia have resulted in continued downward pressure on global wheat prices. Although grain prices skyrocketed following the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, they started to decrease significantly after the United Nations-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) came into effect later that year. Exports have even continued from both Russia and Ukraine following the expiration of the BSGI in July 2023, with Ukraine utilizing a newly established temporary trade corridor through the EU. Continued supplies from both countries have kept wheat prices at bay despite unfavorable weather conditions from key producers Canada and Australia.

 

According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, Russian wheat 12.5% protein was last recorded at $235.50/t FOB Black Sea Ports, down 16% from the start of 2023. The broader S&P Global Commodity Insights Grains & Feed Price Index was also recorded at 96.9 points in October, down 13% from January.


Nov 30 - Olive Oil Update: November 2023 (IHSmarkit)

 

 

Spain, Italy and Turkey, the three largest Mediterranean olive oil origins, are developing their harvests and initial millings with different outputs. Turkey might fall by 50% y/y, although international players were not keeping an eye on it after the government banned exports. Italy might have a bumper crop, exceeding 300,000 metric tons. Spanish and Italian prices have been falling since the record reached in September, although retailers are not cutting prices yet, waiting for final crop data.The EU is the largest global olive oil consumer although it is interesting to analyze the US data, whose imports have been the real driver of growth for high quality oil sales, Extra Virgin oil particularly.

 

The US imports fell by 17% year-on-year to 276,910 metric tons in January-September 2023, Spain and Italy accounting for 31% and 29% of the supply. However, this fall takes place after a record of 422,200 metric tons in 2022. This data means inflation is damaging demand for olive oil, with consumers focusing on staples and cutting average purchases of other products such as nuts. However, many Californian farmers who uprooted almonds and walnuts in previous seasons due to the long-term bearish trend have turned to other crops with high quotes, olive trees included, and wholesalers and retailers might be waiting for initial US shipments, with harvest taking place in timeframes similar to the EU and Turkey. The USDA is implementing changes in its rules about labeling and insurance policy due to this outlook.

 

The global olive production plummeted to 2.59 million metric tons in the 2022-23 season, 22% less year-on-year, driven by main global suppliers: Spain and Italy, according to USDA and EU data. This data is relevant as Spain and Italy are the real global leaders and price drivers. Global carry-over stocks plummeted by 41% y/y to 340,000 metric tons, very far from the record of 850,000 metric tons reached in the 2019-20 season. The EU accounted for 82% of global stocks, falling by 58% y/y to 280,000 metric tons.

Ending stocks were developed in the EU to secure a stable market after suffering speculative practices which were damaging the olive oil industry reputation and are essential to analyze price trends. The olive oil industry has relied on these inventories to increase gradually its market share and finance its production expansion. The EU inventories reached a high of 784,000 metric tons in the 2018-19 season, feeding the rising demand for olive oil thanks to stabilized prices.

 

To revert the current price levels will depend on the Spanish crop, after its expansion in the last decade explains the rising global market share of this product, previously considered as an expensive niche. Spain reached a record crop of 1.79 million metric tons in the 2018-19 season, pushing up EU inventories to 784,000 metric tons, gradually falling to 309,000 metric tons in the 2022-23 season. The combination of growing inventories and falling consumption will be essential to cut prices in the long term, and the former ones will not increase until the Spanish crop exceeds between 1.1-1.2 million metric tons.

 

S&P Global Commodity Insights uses CIF ex-mill prices for Italian and Spanish Extra Virgin oil, the most consumed by non-EU markets, as a reference. Spanish quotations averaged €7,912 ($8,691) per metric ton in the week ending on 29 November, 2% less month-on-month and 62% more y/y. The Italian price averaged €8,225/metric ton in the week ending on 29 November, 5% less m/m and 62% more y/y. The price difference between the Italian and the Spanish product was €313 in the week ending on 29 November, 45% less m/m and €567 in October, 42% less m/m and 48% more y/y.


Nov 30 - WMP firms at the GDT Pulse, while SMP pulls lower (IHSmarkit)
 

 

WMP prices firmed at the GDT Pulse on Tuesday, November 28, while the SMP price pulled lower.

The regular WMP price gained 0.5% to US$2,970/metric ton, with product clearance also recovering to 1,126 t. The achieved average price was a touch below the equivalent contract at the main GDT event on November 21.The instant WMP price made a 0.7% improvement to US$3,070/t, putting it on par with the same contract at the prior main GDT event.

 

In contrast, the medium-heat SMP price dropped 2.7% to US$2,515/t, above where it ended October.


Nov 30 - Conab sees record sugarcane, sugar output in Brazil in 2023/24
Brazil's sugarcane production is expected to reach an all-time high 677.6 million metric tons in 2023/24, government agency Conab said on Wednesday, up 10.9% from the previous year and above an August estimate of 652.9 million tons. The higher crop, driven by favorable weather and increasing yields, will lead sugar production in the world's largest sugar exporter up 27.4% on a yearly basis to a record 46.88 million tons, Conab said in a report.

Nov 30 - India to spend over $141 bln to extend free food grains program
India will spend $141.63 billion to extend its free food grains program for the next five years, a federal minister said on Wednesday, but the government remains confident of meeting its fiscal deficit target. The scheme is aimed at ensuring food and nutrition security for 813.5 million people, Information Minister Anurag Thakur told the media after a federal cabinet meeting.


Nov 29 - Brazil's 2023/24 soy crop seen at 10 mln T lower than expected - MB Agro
Brazilian farmers are expected to reap 10 million tons less soybeans than initially forecast, after a drought slammed Mato Grosso state farmers who planted their crop early, Alexandre Mendonça de Barros, partner at MB Agro consultancy, said on Tuesday. After a dryer than expected October in Brazil and late November rains, MB Agro projected output at 155 million metric tons of soybeans in the 2023/24 cycle. 

 

Nov 29 - Australian sheep, cattle prices slump as El Nino scorches pastures
Half the typical amount of rain has fallen this year on Angus Hobson's farm in southeastern Australia. That means he has less grass and will have to sell off as many as one third of his cattle and sheep to make sure the rest have enough to eat. He will be selling into a market that has collapsed.

 

Nov 28 - Heavy storms bring chaos to Black Sea port logistics (AgriCensus)


- Heavy storms in the Black Sea region have had a major impact on shipping from the vital grains exporting region, raising risks and even preventing normal loading operations over the last few days, trade sources have told Agricensus Monday.

- "éQAIn Russia, the storm has hit the coasts of both the Black Sea and the Azov Sea, reportedly driving the bulk vessel Blue Shark aground after it departed from the port of Taman, while port operations are said to have been either delayed or suspended until the weather improves.

- Ship tracking software shows the 27,000 mt deadweight Blue Shark very close to shore off a Black Sea beach resort, where it appears to have been stuck for three days.

- Local media has also reported that roads and parts of the railways have also been damaged by the weather, but it was not yet clear if the damage could have an impact on grain shipments from the region.

- On the other side of the Black Sea, Romania's Constanta port was also reported to have been closed over the weekend amid winds and a heavy snow storm, but trade sources expect that it will be reopen soon.

Meanwhile, local Romanian media also reported that up to 21 sections of national roads remained closed amid heavy snowfall.

- In Ukraine, the severe weather has also affected port operations in the Black Sea, especially on the Danube.

“Today, ports work mainly for accepting cargo. Sulina and Bystroe are closed, navigation is only inside the canal, and only in special cases. We hope to be able to work tomorrow," one trade source said of the ports along the Danube.

Trade sources also highlighted that even where ports have remained open to accept cargo, and in instances where railway deliveries are being maintained, some terminals are still facing power outages, and operations have been delayed or postponed until the territory is cleared of snow.

- But apart from ports, the roads leading to Black Sea ports were also affected as authorities tried to clear up the consequences of the storm. Thus, currently, the main roads from Odesa to Reni and Odesa to Pivdenniy - key links in the grain export supply chain - are closed for truck movements, which potentially means a delay in cargo deliveries into the ports.

 

Nov 28 - Unusual Ivory Coast rain could strengthen cocoa main crop - farmers
Above-average rain and some sun in most of Ivory Coast’s main cocoa regions last week could boost the October-to-March main-crop, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is in its dry season which runs from mid-November to March when rain is scarce.

 

Nov 28 - Brazil soy planting seen at slowest pace in eight years - AgRural
Brazil's 2023/24 soybean planting had reached 74% of the expected area as of Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, making it the slowest progress for the period in eight years as the country grapples with bad weather. Sowing was up 6 percentage points from the previous week but continued to lag far behind last year's levels, when 87% of the areas had been planted at the same time, and is now the slowest since 2015/16.

Nov 27 - White House stalls ethanol expansion in Midwest amid price concerns
The White House is stalling action on requests by Farm Belt states to allow regional sales of gasoline blended with higher volumes of ethanol after oil industry warnings that the move could cause regional supply disruptions and price spikes, according to two sources familiar with the matter. The decision underscores concerns within President Joe Biden's administration over fuel prices, as opinion polls show inflation and the economy as key vulnerabilities for his 2024 re-election bid.

Nov 27 - Safras, hEDGEpoint cut forecasts for Brazil soy crop on bad weather
Agribusiness consultancies Safras & Mercado and hEDGEpoint on Friday reduced their estimates for Brazil's 2023/24 soybean crop, as consensus grows that bad weather will hamper output in the world's largest producer and exporter. Safras said it now forecasts production this season to total 161.38 million metric tons, down from the 163.25 million it estimated before, while hEDGEpoint cut its projection to 160.1 million tons from 162.3 million.


Nov 25 - Ukraine SPIKE_MARKET at 24/11


Sold in a week

· corn DAP Odessa, a letter of December @148$->150$->151$

· feed wheat DAP Danube ports, sheet

· sunflower (48-50%) DAP Odessa, letter-Dec @14'900 UAH-15'200 UAH

 

 Ukraine

· As of 22.11, the total agricultural exports amounted to 4.7 million tons, in particular: corn - 1.9 million tons, wheat - 950 thousand tons, barley - 181 thousand tons, soybeans - 418 thousand tons, rape - 210 thousand tons, sunflower - 23 thousand tons, soybean oil - 23 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 406 thousand tons, rapeseed oil - 40 thousand tons.

· River freight on the Danube continues to decline due to the redistribution of commodity flows to the ports of the Black Sea.

· International buyers are gradually returning to the market of Ukrainian ports of the Black Sea and competing with each other.

· Prices with delivery to the ports of the Black Sea have increased due to the restoration of trading activity in the Ukrainian maritime logistics chain.

· Continuing the trend of reducing sea freight for Ukrainian ports of the Black Sea creates hope for higher prices in ports for farmers.

- The prices for corn in the ports have reached a temporary maximum at the current rates of freight. Corn was traded in the range from 145 to 150$ with delivery to the ports of the Black Sea.

The simultaneous reduction of tariffs for railway freight in Europe led to an increase in the price of corn in the Western Ukrainian and European markets to levels from 144$ to 148$. Corn, which is loaded in European trains, was traded at a level of 145€ to 150€ FCA border. The final sales markets had the following price range: 222-225$ CIF for Italy, 225-228$ for Spain.

 

- Wheat prices in the direction of the ports have stabilized in the range from 148$ to 162$, depending on quality, timing and delivery location. The volumes of wheat exports remain limited, which is confirmed by low export volumes in November, amounting to 950 thousand tons compared to the average monthly volume last year in the period November-January at 1.5 million tons, when the grain corridor was operating.

In the European market, in particular in the Baltic market, there is a lack of liquidity on the part of sellers, which leads to an increase in purchase prices from buyers.

 

- Prices for sunflower oil stabilized in anticipation of correction in the near future. Oil with delivery CIF Turkey traded in the range from 910 to 930$. Active sales from sunflower producers slow down the further increase in prices. Prices for sunflower remain in the range from UAH 14,000 to UAH 14,800 with VAT delivered to the plant in Ukraine, which corresponds to last week's figures.

 
- Soybeans prices continue to rise in all directions. In the Western Ukrainian and European markets it was possible to sell GMO soybean at prices from 380 to 385€, delivery by wagons or dump trucks to the border. The GMO soybean is traded in a range of 450€ to 465€ DAP of northern Italy. Hungary buys NE-GMO soybeans at a price of around 450€ per ton, delivered to the plant.


Nov 25 - Russian gov lowers the wheat, corn tax for Nov 29-Dec 5 dates

 

The Russian government has significantly lowered the wheat and corn export taxes for the week of November 29-December 5, an official document from the agriculture ministry showed on Friday.

 

The wheat export tax was lowered by RUB 575,20/mt to RUB 3820.20/mt, which is equivalent to around $43.50/mt according to the official exchange rate of the Central Bank of RUB88.12 to the $1. At the same time, the underlying index published by the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) has moved down by $1.10/mt to $253.70/mt.

That is still far from the current levels seen on the physical market, even though the prices have been on the increase throughout the week, as currently the highest offer seen in the market was at $245/mt for 12.5% protein wheat for January loading, while the last time FOB ideas for Russian wheat were seen in the $250/mt area was back in August 2023.

At the same time, in recent months trade has switched towards contracts on a delivered basis to avoid showing the physical FOB prices as these can be below the unofficial floor price, which can explain the big gap between the FOB levels seen in the market and the underlying index used for tax calculations.

 

For corn, the export tariff was moved down by RUB 371.30/mt to RUB 642.00/mt, equivalent to $7.28/mt, while the seven-day average value has moved up by 10 cents to $189.70/mt.

 

Finally, the government left the barley export tax unchanged at zero, while the basis index went up by 60 cents to $165.80/mt.

 

When calculating the index for corn and barley, transactions registered with loading in the ports of the Caspian Sea, as well as ports of the Azov and Black Seas are currently taken into account.

Along with that, starting from December 1 Russia has banned the export of durum wheat until June 1.

 

Also, starting from February 15 and until July 1, Russian grain export will only be possible within the 24 million mt export quota


Nov 24 - Argentina grains trade 'paralyzed' as farmers eye FX adjustment, bean shortage
Argentina's grains trade is largely "paralyzed" by a lack of soybeans due to drought and farmers holding onto produce, anticipating a devaluation of the peso under President-elect Javier Milei, the head of the main export chamber told Reuters. The comments were the first from the crushing and export body CIARA-CEC, which represents major grains firms in Argentina, including Cargill and Bunge, since the election of libertarian outsider Milei on Sunday. He takes office on Dec. 10.

Nov 24 - Dryness lifts Australian wheat quality even as output drops
Dry weather in the growing season has reduced Australia's wheat output this year, but most of the crop is with higher protein content and supplies of lower quality grains for animal feed are limited, analysts and traders said. Premiums earned by farmers in Australia, the world's No. 2 wheat exporter, for higher quality grains will partly offset lost income from a smaller crop, they said.


Nov 23 - Ukraine's farmers pin hopes on export corridor as war cost mounts
Ukraine's efforts to revive sea exports in defiance of Russia's military blockade have given a glimmer of hope to a teetering farm sector in which loss-making producers are abandoning some land in one of the world's biggest grain belts. With no end in sight to the war with Russia, access to the Black Sea is critical if Ukraine is to preserve an agricultural industry that was the fourth-largest grain supplier globally before the conflict and in value terms accounted for half of Ukraine's total exports last year. 

 

Nov 23 - US court rejects EPA's decision to withhold small refinery biofuel waivers
A U.S. appeals court on Wednesday said it struck down the Biden administration's decision to deny small refiners "hardship waivers" that exempt them from nation's biofuel mandates, in a win for the refining industry. In July, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) denied almost all outstanding petitions from oil refiners that argued the federal requirement that they blend ethanol and other biofuels into their fuel would cause them financial hardship.


Nov 22 - China’s vegetable oil imports rise 4% in October on palm, rapeseed oil purchases

 

Imports for year touch 8.09 million metric tons, up 82% on year

- China’s vegetable oil imports rose 3.7% on the month to 950,000 metric tons in October on robust purchases of palm and rapeseed oils, showed data from China’s General Administration of Customs Nov. 21. Total imports by the world’s second largest vegetable oil buyer reached 8.09 million metric tons over January-October, up 82% on the year, customs data showed.

- China’s palm oil imports reached 510,000 metric tons in October, up 5.6% on the year and down 2% on the month, the customs data showed.

- Rapeseed oil imports stood at 230,000 metric tons, up 64% from 140,000 metric tons the month before, the data showed.

- Soybean oil imports in October were recorded at 30,000 metric tons, down from 40,000 metric tons the month before.


Low buying appetite ahead

- China’s pace of buying vegetable oils may be slowing in the current month, a market analyst said as its vegetable oil stocks crossed 2 million metric tons in July – the highest level seen in three years.

- The high stock levels are leading to “wash-outs,” a trader told S&P Global Commodity Insights, a process by which buyers cancel their orders via a mutual agreement with the importers at a price that is calculated based on prevailing market prices.

- Chinese buyers washed out a December shipment of 12,000 metric tons of RBD Olein (Refined Bleached and Deodorized) at a price of around $869-$870 per metric tons this week, a source told S&P Global.

- Portside stocks of vegetable oils were seen at 2.11 million metric tons at end-October, according to trade data shared by sources.

 

Nov 22 - Ukraine could fail to meet future wheat demand if attacks continue, UN agency warns
The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warned on Tuesday that Ukraine's wheat production may be unable to meet domestic and export demand in the years to come if Black Sea export routes remain blocked and attacks on food infrastructure continue. WFP's Ukraine director, Matthew Hollingworth, said a forthcoming report by the U.N. Human Rights Office (OHCHR) would show that since mid-July there have been 31 documented attacks on Ukraine's grain production and export facilities. 

 

Nov 22 - Argentina farmers stall soy sales with eye on newly-elected Milei, traders say
Argentine grains traders said on Tuesday that the country's farmers were holding back soy sales and would likely keep doing so ahead of the mid-December inauguration of President-elect Javier Milei, who has pledged to cut taxes and weaken the peso. The South American country is normally the world's top exporter of processed soy and in the top three for corn, though its most recent harvest was battered by the worst drought in decades, already leaving a domestic shortage of supply.


Nov 21 - Argentina's agriculture players bullish Milei policies will bolster sector (Agricensus)


- Representatives of Argentina’s agricultural sector are optimistic that the victory of Javier Milei in the country’s presidential election on Sunday will lead to reforms that should bolster crop production and exports. Milei has pledged to make radical changes to jumpstart growth in the country that’s suffering from numerous woes including triple-digit inflation, with the closing of the central bank, dollarization, spending cuts, privatization and leaving the Mercosur (South America’s Common Market) deemed to be priorities.

 

- On Monday morning in an interview with a local radio station, Milei reaffirmed that he would attempt to enact these policy changes when he takes power on December 10. Most Argentinean market players reached by Fastmarkets expect positive changes for the agriculture sector will start with dollar devaluation.

“This should help out production and boost farmer selling if the spread between the official and real foreign exchange rates becomes lower,” Pablo Santamaria, a broker at Agrosud SA, told Agricensus.

 

- Argentina’s government and people have long struggled with the decline of the peso and low foreign exchange reserves by implementing multiple exchange rates and capital controls, which has been a headache for exporters. Currently, the official dollar exchange rate is at 668 pesos while in the parallel market, dollar blue is worth 950 pesos.

“If this devaluation occurs, the producer will triple his earnings, which may have an impact on wheat and barley sales, which are practically frozen, and also on soybean and corn sales if producers have enough product to sell,” analyst Javier Preciado Patiño told Agricensus.

 

- Having a fluctuating dollar could make products more expensive for the consumer, as well as increase inflation, which is already running at a 140% annual rate.

"At first it will be difficult, but I believe that growth will settle down over time," said Patiño.

Analysts and brokers caution that Milei will be unlikely to be able to implement all the proposed changes because his Liberty Alliance is expected to have seven out of 72 seats in the Senate, and 38 of 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies.

“I don't know to what extent his lack of congress member support should jeopardize his agenda,” Victor Martins, the Latin America risk manager at Amius Ltd, told Agricensus.

 

- Argentine analysts said that they believe that despite threats to leave Mercosur and switch the country's alignment from China and Russia to the US, trade relations won't see any changes in the near term.

"At first, the end of Mercosur (or Argentina leaving the economic group) could harm Argentine agribusiness, as it would take away preferential access to Brazil's market, which is huge, but after the initial impact, everyone would win," says Daniele Siqueira, an analyst from Agrural.

"As an adherent of the free market in an even more radical version than we usually see, he would leave Argentina's private entities - producers, exporting companies, etc. - would be free to negotiate with the countries they wanted, on the terms they wanted, even without being 'friends' in diplomatic relations," she told Agricensus. Siqueira believes that a free-market aligned government, which Milei's administration is expected to be, should make Argentine agribusiness more competitive, due to the removal or at least reduction of export taxes and controls on export volumes, as well as other economic measures.

"In this scenario of a more competitive Argentina, Brazil will have to work harder to get our products onto the international market, but I don't see Argentina's improvement as a threat to Brazil," Sequeira added.


- An Argentine broker said that Milei's promised privatizing of state-controlled energy company YPF might come with an increase in the use of biodiesel.

 

- Argentina’s agricultural sector is suffering after a drought during the previous crop year slashed output, and the slow arrival of rains during the 2023/24 marketing has led to reductions in wheat production estimates by government agencies and exchanges over the last month.

Rosario Grains Exchange (BCR) cut its estimates for Argentina’s 2023/24 wheat crop by 1 million mt to 13.5 million mt, on November 8, while the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) trimmed its projection by 1.5 million mt to 15 million mt in the most recent update to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report on Novembe.


Nov 21 - Ukraine sugar output, exportable surplus seen rising in 2024 – Union
Ukraine's sugar industry, one of the country's few profitable farm sectors, may continue to expand the planted area in 2024 and with good weather the 2024/25 exportable surplus could jump by around 50%, the producers' union Ukrsugar said. Ukraine produced 5 million metric tons of beet sugar during the Soviet era, but has since reduced production to just over a million tons due to export problems and competition with sugar made from cane. 

 

Nov 21 - Brazil soy planting at slowest pace since 2019/20 hit by bad weather
Brazil's 2023/24 soybean planting had reached 68% of the expected area as of Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up 7 percentage points from the previous week. Sowing continues to lag behind last year's levels, when 80% of the areas had been planted at the same time, and the current pace was the slowest for the period since 2019/20, AgRural said in a statement.

 

Nov 20 - Brazil farmers forced to replace soy with cotton as dry weather takes toll
Extremely dry weather is forcing farmers to give up on soy to plant cotton or another crop in Brazil's top farm state Mato Grosso, cotton lobby groups and growers said. Mato Grosso cultivates two annual cotton crops, one during the soy season and another after soy is reaped from fields. 

 

Nov 20 - Funds pack on more CBOT beans, meal on Brazil weather and US demand -BraunSpeculators ramped up their enthusiasm for Chicago soybeans and soymeal last week as crop concerns for Brazil and a tight U.S. meal market have been raiding the headlines. In the week ended Nov. 14, money managers extended their net long in CBOT soybean futures and options to an 11-week high of 87,913 contracts from 68,598 a week earlier, predominantly on new gross longs.


Nov 18 - Dairy Price Update: European market continues to have a bullish edge as collections continue to drop (IHSmarkit)

 

The EU Commission butter price made its 9th consecutive gain, clocking a 2.1% increase to stand at €5,081/metric ton

Overall, European markets saw another week of firmer prices this week, although there was some slight weakening in the cheese sector. Raw milk production continues to fall with collections in Germany now 1.3% down y/y and French collections a hefty 6.0% down y/y. Reports suggest collection in Ireland is dropping at a faster-than-usual rate. This weakening in collections is providing a bullish edge.

 

Over the past week, end users have begun to engage more in the market with Get Fair Dairy describing it as: “the bullish momentum finally dragging end users over the line to engage as lower prices are not to be expected anytime soon.”

 

The EU Commission butter price made its 9th consecutive gain, clocking a 2.1% increase to stand at €5,081/metric ton, its highest level since late January. Demand for retail packages of butter remains solid ahead of Christmas although there is some concern the high levels ordered may ultimately be cancelled or postponed as consumers grapple with high food prices.

Cream remains pricey and therefore butter will too until the cream prices ease.

 

The EU Commission WMP price gained 0.9% to €3,651/t, placing the price at 9% above the 5-year average. The SMP price remained stable (-0.1%) at €2,623/t, 6% above its 5-year average. Little WMP is changing hands, with European product exceptionally uncompetitive on the global market. Limited raw materials means WMP is only being produced to order. The SMP market is also quiet with most of the SMP deals being concluded for H1 2024.

 

Following last week’s hefty gain, the whey price gained a modest 0.3% to stand at €825/t.

 

While other products saw rises, the cheese sector was mixed – both Emmental and Edam fell on the week. The EU Emmental price fell 0.6% to €6,161/t, its lowest level in 6 weeks. The Edam price lost 0.5% to €4,131/t which leaves it slightly above a fortnight ago’s level. In a similar trend to the Edam price, the cheddar price fell 0.5% but also remained above a fortnight ago’s level, at €3,462/t. Bucking the trend, the gouda price gained 1.5% to €4,172/t.


Nov 17 - Ukraine SPIKE_MARKET report


Resumption of exports through the Black Sea ports reduces the flow of goods through the ports of the Danube. As of 15.11, total exports through the Danube ports amounted to 916 thousand tons, and through the Black Sea ports - 1.226 million tons.

 

The world market expects confirmation that Ukraine has resumed export activity by large vessels and that part of the trade flow from Ukraine will remain for European logistics by land. Freight rates by overland rail and road transport in Europe have already begun to decline.

 

 

On the Italian market, corn is sold at a price of 223$ CIF east coast of Italy. Corn, delivered by road and rail to Italy, is traded at a price of 210-220€.

 

Fundamentally, the global corn market expects the following: will Ukraine be able to maintain sustainable exports, will Brazilian farmers be able to cope with the Safrin corn harvest on time, and whether rain will return to Argentina. If the positive expectations are met, the world market will be difficult to maintain the current price level, especially with a high volume of corn in the remains of the United States.

 

 

 

 

Nov 17 - U.S. weekly soybean sales hit 11-year high after Chinese buying

Weekly U.S. soybean export sales last week of more than 3.9 million metric tons marked the highest combined crop year sales total since 2012, after a surge in Chinese buying, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data on Thursday showed. USDA reported net soybean export sales in the week ended Nov. 9 of 3,918,400 metric tons for shipment in the 2023/24 marketing year that began on Sept 1, and no sales of soybeans for the 2024/25 marketing year. The total was the largest tally since the week ended Feb. 16, 2012.

 

Nov 17 - Argentina grains exchange cuts wheat, corn estimates but raises soy forecast

Argentina's Buenos Aires grains exchange on Thursday cut forecasts across its 2023/24 wheat and corn crops but increased its projection for the land it will sow with soybeans, as late rainfall hit farmers across the country's agricultural core. The exchange now expects 17.3 million hectares (42.75 million acres) will be sown with soybeans, compared to a previous 17.1-million-hectare forecast. Some 18% of this new estimate has now been planted, it said in a weekly report.


Nov 16 - Argentina's core farmland sees above average rainfall, more likely 

Argentina's agricultural core saw much higher than average rainfall during the first half of November and will likely see even more moisture in the coming days in a welcome boost for the sector, the Rosario grains exchange (BCR) said on Wednesday. The rains coincide with the weather phenomena known as El Niño, which for Argentina means higher levels of precipitation over key farmland following a dry Southern Hemisphere winter. 

 

Nov 16 - France raises non-EU wheat export forecast, but stocks still swell 

FranceAgriMer on Wednesday raised its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the EU in 2023/24, but also lifted its season-end stocks estimate to a six year high on lower forecasts for intra-EU shipments and domestic livestock feed demand. In a monthly supply and demand outlook, the farm office projected soft wheat exports to non-European Union destinations at 10.1 million metric tons, up from 9.8 million projected last month and now just 0.5% below last season's level.


Nov 15 - Brazil’s Mato Grosso farmers hold back soybean forward sales: IMEA (Agricensus)

 

Farmers in Brazil’s largest agricultural-producing state, Mato Grosso, held back soybean sales in October due to crop uncertainties while locking in more deals for corn to free up storage space, the state’s agriculture institute IMEA said in its weekly bulletin Monday.

 

Soybean

- Forward sales for new crop soybeans reached 31.7% in October, up 2.8 percentage points on the month.

“Farmers are waiting for a better definition of crop conditions before locking in deals for larger volumes,” IMEA said.

- The state has been struggling with low rainfall volumes and excessive heat since the beginning of the season, with replanting needs already reported.

- Old crop forward sales, meanwhile, advanced 2.7 points on the month to land 2.2 points ahead of the previous year and 2.7 points behind the previous five-year average at 94.5%.

Average prices increased for both crops in October, with 2022/23 prices up 0.9% and new crop up 1.7% compared with average September levels.

 

Corn

- Forward corn sales gathered some steam in October but continued to lag compared with the prior year and the previous five-year average. Sales for the 2022/23 marketing year advanced 4.9 points on the month, with 76.8% of the crop committed.

“This increase is related to farmers’ need to free up storage space and was only not greater due to the 2.7% backdrop in corn prices compared with September’s levels,” IMEA said.

- That said, forward sales were still 14.4% lower compared with the previous five-year average and 6.8% behind last season’s level.

- Forward corn sales for the 2023/24 marketing year increased 3.4 points on the month to reach 13.9% of the estimated crop in October “thanks to an increase in prices,” according to IMEA.

New crop sales remained 24.7 points behind the previous five-year average and 4.9 points slower than in the previous season.


Nov 15 - NOPA October US soybean crush seen at record 187.237 million bushels

The U.S. soybean crush likely reached an all-time monthly high in October, while soyoil stocks were estimated to have risen for the first time in six months, analysts said ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Wednesday. NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed 187.237 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from nine analysts.

 

Nov 15 - Funds pile back into CBOT soybeans amid Brazil weather worries - Braun

Unusually hot and dry weather has gripped top soybean exporter Brazil as it plants what is supposed to be a record crop, causing concern for both soybean and corn supplies as soybean problems could bleed onto Brazil’s heavily exported second corn crop next year. Additionally, tightness in U.S. soybean meal supplies related to Argentina’s extreme crop shortfall earlier this year has lent significant support to soybean and soymeal futures lately.

 

Nov 14 -  India's palm oil, sunoil imports rise to record highs; soyoil drops

India's imports of palm oil and sunflower oil in 2022/23 surged by 24% and 54%, respectively, to record highs on a rebound in consumption and as both oils were available at a steep discount compared to rival soyoil, a leading trade body said on Monday. Higher purchases by the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils could help to lower palm oil stocks in Indonesia and Malaysia and support benchmark futures.


Nov 13 - Dry spell delays Brazil soy planting, spoils second corn outlook - farmers

A lack of rainfall in Brazil's top grain state Mato Grosso has delayed soybean planting by up to 30 days and is compromising the outlook for second corn, which is cultivated after the oilseed is harvested and represents around two-thirds of national production, farmers said. In comments sent to Reuters by state farmer group Aprosoja-MT on Friday, soybean growers also noted dry weather forced replanting on some areas, curtailing soy's yield potential in the world's largest exporter of the commodity.

 

Nov 13 - Malaysia October palm oil inventories at four-year high

Malaysia's palm oil stockpiles stood at a four-year high at the end of October despite more-than-expected exports, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed on Friday. Inventories rose 5.84% from September to 2.45 million metric tons, the sixth consecutive month of increases at the world's second-largest palm oil producer. The last time inventories jumped to this level was in September 2019.


Nov 10 - Conab raises Brazil 2023/24 soy forecast despite erratic weather
Brazil, the world's top soybean grower and exporter, will produce an estimated 162.420 million tons of the oilseed in the 2023/24 cycle even as erratic weather disrupts some planting, crop agency Conab said in a new, higher forecast on Thursday. Some farmers remained skeptical of the optimistic forecast from Conab, which cited better yields and a 2.8% rise in the soy area, while recognizing that planting delays and weather uncertainty pose risks. 

 

Nov 10 - Argentine farmers could plant more land with soybeans after rains, exchange says
Argentine farmers could plant more fields with soybeans than initially estimated, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said on Thursday, as rains put an end to a drought that affected large parts of the agricultural heartlands. In a report days after farmers began planting the 2023/24 soybean crop in Argentina, one of the world's leading exporters of soybean oil and meal, the exchange said the planted area could extend beyond the 17.1 million hectares first forecast.

Nov 09 - Australia ships 6.9Mt barley, 2.8Mt sorghum in yr to Sep ( Grain Central )

 

Combined malting and feed barley exports for September at 485,859t were up 40 percent from 346,213t shipped in August, a hefty upswing unusual for the last month of the marketing year prompted by China’s return to the market.

September figures showed a strong month for barley exports.

“We’ve seen the Chinese shipping program pick up as per our expectations,” Flexi Grain pool manager Sam Roache said.

“We note a significant jump in malting barley exports to China, but this is misleading, with most of the shipments being feed barley.

“We expect barley shipments to ramp up further in October and November, and by December we should be up around the 1Mt-per-month mark.

“Overall, we expect around 3Mt plus has been sold to China since August, with this being over half of our expected exports for the entire shipping year to October 2024.”

“That is a very aggressively sold program and we continue to see that aggressive buying from China in the market today, which is great for Australian barley growers.”

For the year to September 30, Mexico followed by China and Peru were the major malting barley markets, while Saudi Arabia, Japan and Thailand were the biggest feed barley markets.

Sorghum exports also posted an unexpectedly strong result, with 326,412t shipped in September, up 22pc from the August figure of 268,055t.

“China remains the only game in town, with 95pc of exports heading there and little chance of substantive change on that front any time soon.”

In its Australia: Grain and Feed Update released November 2, USDA has forecast Australia’s barley crop now being harvested at 10Mt, with 2023-24 exports of 5.5 Mt, and sorghum production at 1.3 Mt from the crop now being planted.

The forecast sorghum crop is seen one of the lowest in the past 20 years, and exports are forecast at 1.1Mt.

Nov 09 - UN chief says it will be difficult to revive Black Sea grain deal - Reuters NEXT
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told Reuters NEXT on Wednesday that it will be difficult to revive a landmark deal that allowed the safe Black Sea export of Ukraine grain, which Russia quit in July over complaints about its own exports. "It will be difficult. We are going on with our efforts. But it will be difficult," Guterres said.  

Nov 09 - US crop yields battle Brazil weather story; 2024 US crops loom - Braun
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected to confirm disappointing yields for the 2023 U.S. corn and soybean harvests, but that may be OK if the freshly printed 2024 outlooks are any indication. However, Brazil’s soybean and corn crops are up next, and poor weather in the South American exporter could overshadow the headlining U.S. numbers in USDA’s monthly supply and demand report due on Thursday at noon EST (1700 GMT).

Nov 08 - China makes largest US soy purchases in months
China booked its largest single-day U.S. soybean purchases in at least three months on Tuesday, traders said, offering a glimmer of hope for the most valuable U.S. farm export after overseas sales of the 2023 harvest had fallen well behind the normal pace. Chinese importers bought around 10 cargoes of soybeans, or about 600,000 metric tons, for shipment from Gulf Coast and Pacific Northwest export terminals between December and March, trade sources said. 

Nov 08 - Heavy rains hit French grain crop as sowings come to a halt
Heavy rainfall in France over the past two weeks has brought grain sowing virtually to a standstill in the European Union's largest grain grower and lower yields are to be expected in some regions, technical institute Arvalis said on Tuesday. Concerns about prospects for the 2024 French harvest have contributed to a rise in European wheat prices this month.

Nov 07 - China Oct soybean imports surge 25% y/y on strong Brazilian arrivals
China imported 5.16 million metric tons of soybeans in October, customs data showed on Tuesday, a 25% surge from a year earlier but lower than analysts expectations as Brazilian soybeans continued to arrive at ports later than usual. Freshly harvested U.S. soybeans usually dominate the global export market from September while the Brazilian export season winds down, but a record crop in the South American country is expected to dominate China's imports in the last three months of the year. 

Nov 07 - US wheat ratings top expectations; corn, soy harvest near done
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Monday rated 50% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition, up three percentage points from the previous week and the highest for this time of year since 2019 as soil moisture improved in the Plains following a three-year drought. Better production prospects in the world's No. 4 wheat exporter could ease concerns about tightening global grain supplies. However, winter wheat will not be harvested in the United States until mid-2024, and the crop's potential will be highly dependent on springtime weather.

Nov 06 - Palm oil supply seen tight in 2024, biodiesel to drive demand
Global palm oil output is likely to drop next year due to the impact from the El Nino weather pattern while demand from the edible oil and energy sectors is set to grow, supporting prices, leading industry analysts said on Friday. Hot and dry weather is expected to continue into early 2024, worsening a steady downward trend in yields of palm oil from top producers Indonesia and Malaysia in recent years. 

Nov 06 - Ivory Coast sells 2024-25 cocoa export contracts despite price pushback
Ivory Coast has sold at least 300,000 tonnes of cocoa in export contracts for the 2024/25 season despite pressure from multinational companies to lower prices, exporters and regulator sources said on Friday. Ivory Coast is the world's top cocoa producer, and along with neighbouring Ghana, produces about two-thirds of the world's supply. The 2023/24 harvest season started on Oct. 1.

Nov 03 - Ukraine SPIKE MARKET report at 03/11

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, letter @133$->136$
· corn DAP port Romania (car), December letter @204$
· corn DAP Mon. Italy (car), a letter-Dec @210€
· Soybean GMO DAP Mon. Italy (car), Oct-Dec @420€
· Sunflower DAP Odessa, letter @13'300 UAH

· As of 30.10, winter crops were sown: wheat - 3.7 million hectares against the plan of 4.3 million hectares; rapeseed - 1.1 million hectares against 1.2 million hectares; barley - 402 thousand hectares against 692 thousand hectares.
· Agricultural products exported in October amounted to 4.3 million tons. Resumption of shipment with the support of the Ukrainian Navy by sea corridor allowed to increase exports in October by 1.3 million tons.
· The Cabinet of Ministers' urgent introduction of new rules for the verification of exporters and licensing has caused a slowdown in exports.
· The stable operation of sea shipments increasingly involves the marine fleet from the market as the freight rates are reduced, and the prices of FOB and DAP ports are fixed.

- Due to the resumption of marine exports, the world market is in anticipation of more competition due to the active export of corn by sea from Ukraine. This prospect added pressure on the prices of the final sales markets on the basis of CIF. At the same time, there is support for prices and restoration of activity of FOB trade with delivery at terminals of Odessa, Southern and Black Sea.

- Prices of corn delivered to the ports have risen by an average of 10$ per ton compared to last week. The main reason for this is the introduction of new rules of transparent export, which slowed trading in order to clarify the new mechanism. The USDA representative in Kyiv assesses the export of 2023 corn at 24.7 million tons.

- The wheat complex has stabilized in demand and supply. The prices received little fortification in all directions. Europe remains the most heavily traded market, and access to markets in Africa, the Orient, and the Middle East is limited by the capacity of maritime logistics.

- Prices of sunflower with delivery to processing enterprises reached a peak at the moment of the current situation and were traded in the range of 12’500-13’200 UAH with VAT. The "margin" of sunflower processing excluding the cost of processing has decreased to the lowest rate for the last year and is about $50-60 per ton, subject to 100% VAT refund. Some processing plants resume the processing of rapeseed, which is more expedient.
Recent customer indicators:

- Soybeans prices are fixed up to 10€ per ton depending on the direction. Soybean exports increased by almost half in October this year and amounted to 432 thousand tons against 230 thousand tons in October 2022. The percentage of shipments by sea and river transport was 60% against 72% in September. In October, the largest soybean sales markets were European markets of 198 thousand tons, Turkey 118 thousand tons and Egypt 72 thousand tons.

Nov 03 - New rains in Argentina's farmlands a 'blessing' for corn and soybeans
Argentine farmers received a "blessing" of 50-60 millimeters (2-2.4 inches) of rain in recent hours, providing relief to the country's thirsty corn crop and an opportunity for farmers to begin sowing the soybeans campaign, the Rosario grains exchange (BCR) said on Thursday. Up to 30 millimeters of rain fell in Argentina's agricultural region over the weekend, on top of some 45.5 millimeters the previous week - a needed boost after a drought battered the country's farming heartland in winter and early spring. 

Nov 03 - Erratic weather threatens Brazil’s run at another record soy crop -Braun
Just months after Brazil harvested its largest-ever corn and soybean crops, concerns are already brewing over the next crop as wild weather patterns are disrupting both northern and southern soybean-production areas. As of a week ago, farmers in the top soy exporter had planted 40% of their 2023-24 crop, slower than a year ago. Leading state Mato Grosso’s soy planting reached 70% last week, falling slightly below the historic pace and reversing what had previously been a quicker clip.

Nov 02 - India's smaller rice crop paves way for prolonged export curbs
For the first time in eight years, India's rice output is expected to drop this year, raising the prospect that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government will extend curbs on exports of the grain to keep a lid on food prices ahead of elections. Production in India, the world's largest rice exporter, is under unusually intense focus after New Delhi banned exports of non-basmati white rice in July, sending global prices surging.

Nov 02 - Ukraine exported 3 mln T food via seaports and Danube in October - brokers
Ukraine exported 3 million metric tons of food in October from its Black Sea ports and ports of the Danube River, Spike Brokers, which regularly tracks and publishes export statistics in Ukraine, said on Wednesday. It gave no comparative figures. Agriculture ministry data showed that 2.3 million tons of agricultural goods left Ukrainian ports in September.

Nov 02 - Russia’s agriculture ministry warns of durum export ban ( Interfax-AgriCensus )

- Russia’s state-backed news agency Interfax reported Wednesday that the country’s agriculture ministry has proposed a ban on durum wheat exports, effective December 1, 2023 through to May 31, 2024, citing a link to the Russian government’s website. The article ‘assumes’ that the only exception to the rule will be exports to Belarus, a close ally of Moscow, and humanitarian aid to foreign states “on the basis of decisions made by the government of the Russian Federation.”
Precise data on the size of Russia’s durum wheat exports is hard to pin down, as the government has stopped issuing official export figures leaving the only clues to the scale of grain and oilseed exports port line up data.

- However, most such shipping information only classifies exports as ‘wheat’, without breaking it down into component classes. Trade sources spoken to by Agricensus suggested that Russia’s exports pace this year had already surpassed the previous year, and the measure was likely being taken to preserve stocks for the domestic market. In 2021, the last year for which official data on exports was available, Russia exported 173,000 mt of durum wheat, but no official data is available for 2022 or 2023.

- Estimates seen by Agricensus suggest exports since the beginning of the marketing year could have reached as much as 424,000 mt in the period to October.
Interfax quoted the total production of the Russian Federation at between 700,000 and 800,000 mt, and referred to a ministry plan to boost the acreage for durum wheat to support production of 1.8 million mt by 2025, and continue to grow from there through to 2030. Currently, Turkey has emerged as a more significant regional exporter, with up to a million tonnes exported per year.

Nov 01 - India braces for 8% sugar output dip as cane crop suffers - trade body
India's sugar production is likely to fall 8% to 33.7 million metric tons in the 2023/24 marketing year, which starts on Oct. 1, a leading trade body said on Tuesday, as lower rainfall in key producing states could dent yields. Lower sugar production could lead the world's second-largest producer of sweetener to refrain from allocating export quotas and support global prices that are trading near multi-year highs. 

Nov 01 - BrasilAgro has mixed progress planting soy in top grower Mato Grosso
Brazilian listed farm group BrasilAgro has advanced soy planting in some parts of Mato Grosso state but has seen slower progress in others due to irregular rains, an executive said on Tuesday. The company has managed to sow 90% of its soy fields at the Jataí farm, in the northeast of Brazil's biggest grain state. But in towns like Querencia, in the east, and Comodoro, closer to the western border with Rondonia state, the work has not advanced as quickly, according to management.

Oct 31 - China snaps up Australian, French wheat as crop damage spurs buying spree
China is set to import record volumes of wheat this year, trading sources say, with rain damage to its crop and worries over dry weather in exporting nations fuelling Beijing's appetite to buy while prices are low. Traders said China's frantic buying is likely to support global prices, which have dropped more than a quarter this year - based on the Chicago futures benchmark price - amid abundant supplies from top exporter Russia. 

Oct 31 - US winter wheat health starts 2024 season at four-year high -Braun
It has been a few years since the United States has had a truly good winter wheat harvest, though the 2024 crop could be on its way despite lingering drought in top states. In its first assessment of the growing season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture rated 47% of the domestic wheat crop as good or excellent (GE) as of Sunday, the date’s best since 2019 and above the recent five-year average of 44%.

Oct 30 - El Nino disrupts Brazil soy planting in Mato Grosso, threatens second corn
Scarce rainfall due to the El Nino climate phenomenon has caused disparities in the speed of soy planting in Brazil's top grain state Mato Grosso and could impact sowing of second corn, farmers and experts said on Friday. The risk for the second corn, which is planted after soy is harvested, is greater in areas where the oilseed may have to be replanted. 

Oct 30 - Brazil mills to extend sugarcane crushing, adding sugar production capacity
Brazilian mills in the Centre-South region will extend sugarcane crushing operations beyond the traditional period to cope with a record crop this year and take advantage of high sugar prices, according to mill owners and directors. Brazil's sugar season usually ends in November as rains become more frequent - making it more difficult for machines to operate in the fields - and when there is not much more cane left to be harvested.

Oct 27 - Nine vessels enter Ukraine Black Sea ports Friday, proving ports are working (AgriCensus)

Nine new vessels have entered the Great Odesa ports area and four left on Friday, confirming market sources' estimates and proving that Ukraine's humanitarian corridor is still working despite a two-to-three day pause in operations, vessel tracking applications showed. The nine newly arrived vessels have a total summer deadweight of 215,000 mt, including one chemical tanker.

That comes after a misunderstanding on Thursday, October 26, suggested corridor work had been suspended due to military risks, which turned out to be a temporary pause, while trade sources said that the shipments would continue on Friday.

The new movements also pushed the total number of vessels that have already entered the humanitarian corridor to 51, including 25 that have now left the country, according to the data available.

Back on August 10, Ukrainian authorities announced a humanitarian export corridor safeguarding shipments from and to the Black Sea ports of Pivdenniy, Odesa and Chornomorsk (POC), with first vessels arriving on September 17.

Oct 27 - EU cuts 2023/24 wheat export forecast, increases stocks
The European Commission on Thursday lowered its forecast of European Union exports of common wheat, or soft wheat, in 2023/24 to 31 million metric tons from 32 million projected a month ago. EU soft wheat exports so far in 2023/24 are running 22% below the year-ago level, reflecting stiff early-season competition from Russia. 

Oct 27 - Bunge lifts 2023 outlook as vegoils fuel profit beat; shares rally
Global crop trader and processor Bunge lifted its 2023 outlook on Thursday after its third-quarter profit topped Wall Street expectations, though earnings were lower year-on-year. Solid crushing results in Brazil, Asia and North America, and good vegetable oil demand helped the world's largest oilseed processor offset weaker results in Argentina, where a severe drought slashed crop harvests this year.

Oct 26 - Rumors spread of Chinese crushers washing out Brazilian bean sales (AgriCensus)

- As many as eight to 10 cargoes of Brazilian beans for November shipment to China may have been “washed out” – an industry term colloquially used when deals are canceled or contracts breached – by some major global grain firms, several market sources told Agricensus on Thursday. While the washouts could not be fully confirmed yet, the rumor spread widely on Thursday, with sources believing there were three firms to have taken the move. Meanwhile, some other market participants were skeptical about the information, saying they had not heard anything of these washouts.

- The washout rumor came as Brazilian beans on a CFR China basis for November shipment have been slightly less competitive than sales out of the US Gulf, with the former seeing assessment at around a 5-15 c/bu premium more than the latter this week.
“Crush margins in Brazil seem to be better than in China, which means big corporations that have crushing plants in multiple countries can choose where to crush the beans to get better profits,” said a Chinese trader.
“The washouts might be accepted by exporters as it is currently more attractive to crush beans in Brazil and sell products rather than originate and export,” said another Brazil-based source.

- Sources believe drivers for the washouts also include an attempt by China’s hog producers to cover their losses by reducing the percentage of soymeal, one of the major products of soybean crushers, in feed, as well as potential logistics issues that could slow down the pace of loading for Brazilian beans to China. China’s hog prices have been largely on a downward trend this year partly due to a higher-than-usual sow count, according to China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, which has warned pig farmers about potential heavier losses after the Lunar New Year 2024 that falls in February.
"I was talking to a local crusher in China. The trader told me he is thinking about washing out too,” said the Brazil-based source.
"[It is] too hard to sell soymeal locally.

- Soymeal sales in China were unusually sluggish in September, a situation many believed was due to stock building of the product by feed producers in previous weeks for fear of tight supplies. Since then, several days recently have seen large volumes of trade in China's domestic soymeal market, mostly for forward sales, including 1.14 million mt traded on Wednesday for May to September, according to sources.

Brazil dominated China's soybean imports in September with 6.88 million mt of products sold to China, which was 23.4% higher than a year ago.

Oct 26 - Rain improves conditions for Ukraine's winter crops

Rain across almost the entire territory of Ukraine has significantly improved conditions for the development of winter crops, which previously suffered from widespread drought, the APK-Inform consultancy said on Wednesday. Drought has become common in Ukraine and farmers sow even in dry soil in the hope that winter precipitation and mild weather will allow the grain to germinate and survive.

Oct 25 - Russia’s Patrushev confirms 93m mt wheat production outlook (AgriCensus)

Russian agriculture minister Dmitry Patrushev has confirmed the country’s wheat production should top 93 million mt, part of a second consecutive huge grain harvest that is expected to reach 140 million mt.

The ministry of agriculture updated its forecasts to bring production outlooks into line with private forecasters and other agencies who had already ramped up their wheat production forecasts.

The official forecast had expected wheat production to reach 90 million mt, with overall grains production expected to hit 135 million mt.

Russian news agency Interfax reported that Patrushev had met with Russian president Vladimir Putin to update the government on the official outlooks, with confirmation of the increase coming later in the day.

The estimates come as production has already reached 93.3 million mt from 96% of the planted area according to government data released earlier in the week.

While the forecast is still behind last year’s 100 million mt plus harvest, it is still the second largest harvest ever produced by Russia.

The figures represent production expectations for the disputed region of Crimea, but do not include any production from the regions of Ukraine currently occupied by Russian forces

Oct 25 - China signs US agriculture purchase agreements in first ceremony in years
A delegation of commodity importers from China on Monday signed agreements to buy billions of dollars' worth of agricultural goods, mostly soybeans, during a ceremony in Iowa, the U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC) said on Tuesday. The agreements, signed at the China-U.S. Sustainable Agricultural Trade Forum, were the first such bulk signings since 2017 between top soybean importer Beijing and the U.S., the world's second-largest supplier of the oilseed. 

Oct 25 - ADM profit beats on ethanol margins, shares dip as key segments lag expectations
Global grains merchant Archer-Daniels-Midland beat Wall Street expectations for third-quarter profit on Tuesday on good ethanol and sweetener margins and strong Brazilian crop exports, although results were lower year on year. Shares fell, bucking broader stock market gains, as a weaker-than-expected profit in ADM's large Ag Services and Oilseeds segment and its high-margin Nutrition unit overshadowed a strong quarter in Carbohydrate Solutions, which includes ethanol and sweeteners.

Oct 24 - Ukrainian Danube prices rise amid complex logistics, tax inspections (AgriCensus)

- Prices for corn and wheat in the Danube shallow water ports increased late last week amid the rising complexity of logistics along with inspections held in the ports by Ukrainian authorities, trade sources told Agricensus.

- Despite the freight rates decreasing for vessels leaving Danube ports, the cargo flow has not improved due to other problems such as weather conditions limiting navigation in a move that has not helped to ease huge queues of vessels waiting to exit or enter the Sulina canal. Trade sources say at least 75 vessels are currently waiting. But that has come alongside an increase in checks carried out by the Ukrainian authorities in the fight against incorrect taxation in Danube ports - a measure that has piled extra pressure on the activity.

- Current circumstances have led to a significant reduction of FOB basis offers in the Danube shallow water ports, traders are now mostly closing previously signed contracts, according to the trade sources. The lack of offers forced buyers to reconsider their bid ideas, pushing levels higher as they try to tempt sellers out.

- Buying ideas for corn on a FOB basis rose from $155-157/mt to $160-165/mt for spot delivery, and the interest ideas for feed wheat also have moved higher to $160-mid $160/mt FOB Reni/Izmail in the space of a week.

- Buying interest for corn on a domestic CPT Reni basis was seen at $137/mt amid the $118-125/mt CPT deep-sea ports basis.

While the Ukrainian authorities were said to be holding inspections to check the tax documentation for companies operating in ports for export, the measures are mostly focused on companies trading in cash, trade sources have said. The investigation is asking companies to supply the documents confirming that tax has been paid, although it appears that other companies were also affected, with vessels being stopped from loading and some cargoes have not been able to be delivered on time.

Oct 24 - As farmers await more rains, Brazil's 2023/24 soybean planting hits 30%
Expected rain this week, if realized, will improve prospects for Brazilian soy farmers, who have been sowing their new crop at a slower pace amid unusually hot and dry weather, experts said on Monday. Marco Antonio dos Santos, a meteorologist at Rural Clima, noted that a cold front will bring much needed humidity between Wednesday and Thursday to central Brazil, benefiting crops immediately . 

Oct 24 - EU crop monitor cuts maize yield forecast on parched southeast
The European Union's crop monitoring service on Monday further reduced its yield forecast for the EU's grain maize harvest after a warm, dry start to autumn worsened drought in the southeast of the bloc. This year's EU grain maize yield was expected to reach 7.13 metric tons per hectare (t/ha), down from 7.26 t/ha projected last month, the MARS service said in a report.

Oct 23 - China hogfarming losses to worsen, grain acreage up, say officials
China's pig production is still growing, a farm ministry official said on Monday, with a higher than normal number of breeding sows set to maintain downward pressure on prices.China had 42.4 million sows at the end of September, unchanged from the previous month, and 3.4% higher than the normal level, Chen Guanghua, head of the animal husbandry and veterinary bureau at the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs told a press briefing. 

Oct 23 - Louis Dreyfus to build Ohio soy crush plant, add to processing boom
Louis Dreyfus Company will build a soybean-processing plant in Ohio, the global crop merchant said on Friday, adding to a booming expansion of oilseed crushing in North America encouraged by biofuel use. Dreyfus will start construction in early 2024 on the facility in Upper Sandusky that will have annual soy-crushing capacity of 1.5 million metric tons, the company said in a statement.

Oct 20 - IGC raises forecast for 2023/24 world wheat crop
The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday raised its forecast for global wheat production in the 2023/24 season with upward revisions for Ukraine, Russia and the United States outweighing a deteriorating outlook for the crop in Australia. The inter-governmental body's monthly update put the global wheat crop at 785 million metric tons, up from a previous forecast of 783 million but still well below the prior season's record of 803 million. 

Oct 20 - Bumper US corn harvest sinks prices, pushes global supply to surplus
After a dry spring threatened to wither the U.S. corn crop in the fields, farmers are harvesting what will likely be the country's third-largest crop ever. A bumper harvest will strain storage capacity and hold down prices of the world's most traded commodity crop.

Oct 19 - French growers see grain maize crop rebounding above average
Good growing conditions will push this year's grain maize crop in France, the European Union's largest producer, above the five-year average despite farmers turning away from the grain after a poor 2022 harvest, growers group AGPM said on Wednesday. In a first estimate, done in collaboration with technical institute Arvalis, AGPM forecast that the French 2023 grain maize crop, excluding crops grown for seeds, would rise to at least 13.1 million metric tons, up about 23% on last year's drought-hit crop, and above the average of 13 million tonnes. 

Oct 19 - Brazil unveils plan to subsidize wheat trades
The Brazilian government has allocated 400 million reais ($79 million) to subsidize wheat trades from the 2023/2024 crop year in a bid to shore up prices, according to a statement on Wednesday.  "History shows that when you launch (such a program), the market heats up," Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro said in the statement as he sought to highlight the importance of boosting Brazil's wheat marketplace.

Oct 18 - Drought across Ukraine affects winter sowing
The prolonged absence of rain across most Ukrainian regions has created unfavourable conditions both for the ongoing sowing of winter crops and for the plants already sown, APK-Inform consultancy quoted weather forecasters as saying on Tuesday. Ukraine is a traditional grower of winter wheat, barley and rapeseed. 

Oct 18 - Indian wheat prices at 8-month high on festival demand, tight supply
Indian wheat prices surged to an eight-month high on Tuesday, propelled by strong demand for big festivals, limited supplies and as import duty makes overseas buying unfeasible for domestic flour mills. The increasing prices may prompt the government to release more stocks from inventories and eliminate import duties on the cereal to bolster supplies and control prices ahead of important state assembly elections and a general election next year.

Oct 17 - NOPA September US soybean crush at 165.456 million bushels
The U.S. soybean crush jumped last month to the highest-ever level for September, while end-of-month soyoil stocks thinned to the lowest in nearly nine years, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday. NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans crushed in the United States, processed 165.456 million bushels of soybeans last month, up 2.5% from the 161.453 million bushels processed in August and up 4.6% from the September 2022 crush of 158.109 million bushels. 

Oct 17 - US soy harvest 62% complete, ahead of expectations; corn 45% -USDA
U.S. farmers had harvested nearly two thirds of their soybean crop and 45% of their corn by Sunday, while soybean condition ratings improved, according to weekly data from the U.S. Agriculture Department released on Monday.  The brisk harvest pace has kept a lid on U.S. grain futures in recent weeks.

Oct 16 - Argentina soybean sales drop by 85% in October ( BCR - AgriCensus )

- Argentina's average daily sales of soybeans dropped by 85% in October when compared to the level seen in September, Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR) said.

From September 5 to September 30, the average sales per day was 202,000 mt, while from October 1 to 12, the volume dropped to 31,000 mt.  
Up until last Thursday, domestic sales of soybeans under the soy dollar 4 preferential exchange rate scheme amounted to 4.9 million mt.

According to BCR, sales declined in October due to the low availability of soybeans, as only 3.4 million mt are left to be traded, with 77% of the 2022/23 crop sold. At the same time last year, 73% of the 2021/22 crop has been sold, while the average for the past five crops was 69%.
“On the other hand, the economic and political ups and downs of the last few weeks have increased uncertainty regarding the cost of inputs and rents, among others, at a time when producers are finalizing their sowing plans for the new season,” BCR said.

The presidential elections are scheduled for next Sunday, October 22.  
As the new crop is beginning, the water deficit continues to affect large productive areas, along with early frosts this week.

Oct 16 - EU wheat and barley area seen holding steady as sowing advances
Warm weather has helped European Union farmers make progress in sowing grains for next year's harvest, with the area devoted to wheat and winter barley expected to be similar to this year, but rapeseed perhaps a little lower, analysts said. Dry conditions, however, remain a risk to planting and crop development, particularly in Spain, Romania and Bulgaria, while new biodiversity requirements for EU subsidies may also sway farmers' crop decisions.  

Oct 16 - Funds cover CBOT corn shorts ahead of USDA’s monthly update -Braun
Speculators scrapped short positions in Chicago-traded corn before last week’s crop outlook from the U.S. government, but money managers narrowly clung to the bullish soy views they have held since early 2020. The days leading up to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Oct. 12 reports featured quiet trading in CBOT corn and soybean futures, which both drifted fractionally lower in the week ended Oct. 10.

Oct 13 - Dairy Price Update: Either EU cheddar is undervalued or gouda is overvalued (IHSmarkit)

- The gouda price is currently at €4,093/t, while the cheddar price is at €3,584/t
- The butter rally continues with the price up 1.3% this week
- Demand for whey continues to bounce back, but the inventories from earlier in the year will take a while to clear

The rally for European dairy product prices continues. Supply continues to contract with the outlook for global raw milk supply now looking firmly on the tight side.

The Emmental price was stable w/w at €6,150/metric ton and maintains a small y/y premium. Meanwhile, the Edam price gained 0.7% to €4,128/t, which leaves it 22% below year-ago levels. The gouda price is currently at €4,093/t, while the cheddar price is at €3,584/t. This price ratio is larger than we have seen historically and therefore while sustainable in the short-term either cheddar is undervalued or gouda is overvalued. We are likely to see a price correction later in the year, however, the current price position is likely to be sustainable for another month or 2.

Cheese supplies remain tight and inventories are light. Demand continues to be good.

After the blip a fortnight ago, the whey price continues to gain and has now hit a 26-week high. This week the price gained 2.9% to €753/t which is 18% below its late August low. Demand for whey continues to bounce back, but the inventories from earlier in the year will take a while to clear.

The WMP price gained 1.3% to €3,458/t, which is the smallest w/w rise in 3 weeks. This puts the WMP price at 6.3% above its early September low.

Demand for WMP has calmed slightly following a flurry of activity a fortnight ago, however, prices at the GDT Pulse have continued to move up and it is likely European prices will continue to follow.

The SMP price was relatively stable w/w at €2,463/t, however owing to a large increase last week the price is 8.7% above its early September low.

The improved demand for SMP continues, with some nearby orders also being received. Buyers are certainly less cautious than a month or 2 ago and are stocking up, anticipating higher prices moving forward. Stocks are depleting.

Demand for both WMP and SMP from Southeast Asia has been good through the past week.

The butter rally continues with the price up 1.3% this week to €4,626/t. This puts the price 5.7% above its recent low and 2% below the 5-year average. The erosion of butter inventories continues, which is firmly placing the market in the bull-zone ahead of the baking season. Cream prices have sharply increased which has once again made butter production unattractive, and therefore butter prices are likely to see further rises in the coming weeks.

Oct 13 - Brazil’s cereal output grows 14.5% y/y in 2023, reaching a record high of 159.3 million metric tons: FAO

- Corn output expected at record 132 million metric tons (+16.6% y/y)
- Wheat production estimates grow slightly y/y, but higher rainfall poses challenge
- Paddy output on steady decline since 2006, shrinks 7% y/y and 11% over 5-year average

The latest FAO Country Briefing for Brazil highlights that cereal production is likely to hit a record level in 2023, which consolidates the country as a major exporter worldwide. The country showed a 14.5% growth y/y to 159.3 million metric tons, representing a 34% increase from the 5-year production average. In terms of exports, these totalled 55.5 million metric tons, with corn accounting for 92% of Brazil’s cereal exports.

Brazil’s main season corn crop was recently harvested and the FAO expect output to reach a record high of 102 million metric tons, more than a 40% increase than the 5-year average. This was helped by the 33% growth (over 2018-23) in planted area, with farmers responding positively to solid domestic demand from the feed industry and rising consumption worldwide. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, total 2023 corn output is expected to reach a record 131.8 million metric tons (+17% y/y).

The annual wheat harvest is ongoing and output is projected to increase by 2.5% y/y to 10.8 million metric tons. If realised, this would represent an almost 50% increase from its 5-year average. Brazilian wheat has received more interest in recent years from both the domestic market and abroad, especially since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Despite the positive estimates, El Niño is likely to impact southern regions due to unusual and excessive rainfall in October until December and could diminish production.

Paddy harvesting in Brazil concluded in May and, according to local authorities, annual production estimates are at 10 million metric tons. Rice output has been steadily decreasing due to successively smaller planted areas since 2006, when farmers began to shift to more profitable crops, such as corn and soybeans.

Planting for rice and minor grains have been delayed due to heavy rainfall in the southern region. However, official forecasts point to a 10% y/y growth in output owing to soaring domestic prices. Contrary to paddy, corn planted area for 2024 is forecasted to wane 3.6% at 21.19 million hectares, as prices have eased in local and international markets.

Brazilian Paddy Rice prices from Rio Grande do Sul have increased by 18% since the start of 2023 and Brazilian Corn has decreased 21% since. Paddy was most recently recorded at $404.20/t EXW and corn at $222.50/t FOB, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Corn exports in the 2023/24 marketing year (March-February) are forecast at a record level of 51 million metric tons, more than 50% above the 5-year average. This was caused by a spike in crop productivity, which led Brazil to a surplus. Contrary to corn, paddy exports are forecast below average in 2023 (Jan-Dec), due to high local consumption and the output slump. Combined cereal exports are estimated at 55.5 million metric tons in 2023/24.

Oct 13 - Still narrow palm olein-sunflower oil spread weighs on palm buying (AgriCensus)

The spread between refined bleached deodorized (RBD) palm olein and crude sunflower oil has remained narrow in the past few weeks, dampening buying sentiment for palm oil as buyers switch to sunflower instead. Price-sensitive buyers in key destination markets such as China, India and the Middle East are likely to purchase more sunflower oil as it is priced more attractively.

On a CNF India basis, sunflower oil was offered at a premium of $45/mt to RBD olein today for October and November shipments.

The spread for December shipments is smaller, with sunflower at a $35/mt premium to RBD palm olein, according to Fastmarkets data.

This spread has been at similar levels since end-September but was at around $150/mt in July and around $400/mt a year ago.

Lower sunflower oil offers have been prompted by higher availability of sunflower seeds from Russia and Ukraine, which has contributed to greater crushing and oil supply.

In the 2023/24 season, Ukrainian crushers expect to harvest 13-14 million mt, which is on average 10% higher than last year.

Similarly, higher production from the world’s second largest exporter of palm oil, Malaysia has also kept palm olein offers from rising.

Malaysia’s crude palm oil (CPO) production in September rose by 4.3% to 1.83 million mt amid Malaysia’s seasonal peak production season, with the state of Sabah registering the highest monthly production growth at 8.3% higher to 418,052 mt.

Oct 13 - China Sept soybean imports fall 7.3% on year
China imported 7.15 million metric tons of soybeans in September, customs data showed on Friday, falling 7.3% from a year ago after high stocks and a spike in global prices curbed recent purchases. China's oilseed purchases from top producer and exporter Brazil have surged this year as buyers jumped on cheaper beans following a record harvest in the Latin American country. 

Oct 13 - USDA makes large revision to Brazil cotton projections
The United States Agriculture Department on Thursday announced a large revision to Brazil's cotton production numbers that goes back to 2000, leading to significant changes in its ending stocks numbers for both Brazil and the world market. It also said Brazil's cotton production in 2023/24 will exceed that of the United States for the first time, and that the South American country is close to surpassing U.S. cotton exports for the first time since the 19th century.

Oct 12 - FranceAgriMer raises wheat, barley export forecasts on China demand
French soft wheat and barley sales to China prompted farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday to increase its forecasts for exports outside the European Union in 2023/24, but it cut projected intra-EU shipments, citing Black Sea competition. In a supply and demand outlook, the office pegged French soft wheat shipments outside the bloc at 9.80 million metric tons from 9.50 million projected last month, but still 3.5% below last season's level. 

Oct 12 - Cheap sunflower oil from Russia, Ukraine rattles palm oil market
A flood of cheap sunflower oil from Russia and Ukraine is putting downward pressure on palm oil prices as the two top producers take advantage of currency depreciation to grab a larger share of the edible oils market. Last year, palm oil prices soared after Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted sunflower oil supplies from the Black Sea region.

Oct 12 - South Korea’s MFG buys about 136,000 T corn in tender
South Korea's Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 136,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said. The tender sought corn in two consignments for arrival in South Korea in February 2024.

Oct 11 - Iran bans soybean, sunflower oil imports; regional market tumbles (IHSmarkit)

- Ban from Oct. 23 until further notice
- Purchase ban likely to dampen Russian sunflower oil prices
- Most of Iran’s edible oil need met by imports

Iran has imposed an immediate ban on soybean and sunflower oil imports, according to multiple media outlet reports on Oct. 10.
The reports cited a letter written to the Iran Customs Administration from the agriculture ministry’s deputy for commercial development on Oct. 9.

According to the state Fars news agency, the letter says, “Considering the necessity of planning to adjust and regulate the edible oil market, the clearance of crude sunflower oil and crude soybean oil is not allowed from Oct. 23 from all executive customs offices of the country until further notice.”

The reason behind the purchase ban was not clear -- whether it was caused by an oversupply of oil in the market and to prevent further price reduction. Iran imports 90% of its edible oil needs. However, the officials of the agriculture ministry have announced a 15% drop in vegetable oil prices in market.

Oct 11 - EU olive oil production set to plunge 39% y/y (IHSmarkit)

- EU olive oil production forecast to fall 39% y/y to 1.385 MMt for 2022/23
- Extreme weather across Europe sets back olive harvests for second year in row
- Estimated 2022/23 EU ending stocks forecast below average at 309,000 metric tons

Olive oil production in the EU is forecast to fall by 39% y/y to 1.385 million metric tons (MMt) for 2022/23, down from 2.272 MMt in 2021/2022 according to data from the International Olive Council and the European Commission. EU production in 2022/23 is expected to be 35% below the five-year average, as extreme weather such as soaring temperatures across Southern Europe have set back olive harvests for the second year in a row. Wildfires ravaging several olive groves have also compounded the issue.

Spain, the largest olive oil producing EU member, is forecasted to see its production decline 56% y/y to 0.663 MMt for 2022/23 from 1.491 MMt in 2021/2022. Italy is forecasted to have a 27% y/y decline to 241,000 metric tons from 329,000 metric tons a year prior.

The huge reductions in production have raised several concerns within the region, with lower EU availabilities and uses in 2022/23. Estimated EU ending stocks are forecast to be below average in 2022/23 at 309,000 metric tons, down from 671,000 metric tons in 2021/22.

Disappointing production and Italy and Spain have led to higher prices. European Commission prices for Spanish Jaen extra virgin olive oil rose by 111% y/y to €833 per 100 kilograms at the end of September while virgin oil prices were up 98% y/y to €767/100kg at the end of September. Italian Bari extra virgin olive oil rose by 78% y/y to €908/100kg at the September.

Global production is projected to decline by 26% y/y to 2.505 MMt in 2022/2023 due to the setbacks in the EU. Tunisia and Morocco are forecasted to have significantly declines of over 20% y/y to 180,000 metric tons and 156,000 metric tons respectively in 2022/23. While Syria’s production is forecasted to grow 27% y/y from 106,000 metric tons to 135,000 metric tons in 2022/23. Turkey’s production is forecasted to grow 17% y/y to 275,000 metric tons in 2022/23. Despite the boost in production from Syria and Turkey, non-EU production itself is expected to decline by 1% y/y to 1.12 MMt. Due to the continued shortfall, olive oil prices are likely to be bullish moving into Q4 2023 and in early 2024.

Oct 11 - Brazil's Conab sees record soy output; lower corn plantings as prices fall
Brazilian farmers will harvest a record soybean crop in the new season but will reap less corn, the government's crop agency Conab said on Tuesday in the first forecast report for the 2023/24 grain cycle. Farmers in the South American food powerhouse, which have already began planting their new soy and first corn, are expected to produce 162 million metric tons of soybeans, 4.8% more than last year, Conab said. 

Oct 11 - US soy harvest 43% complete, corn 34%; soy ratings dip -USDA
The U.S. soybean harvest was 43% complete by Sunday and the corn harvest 34% finished, data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) showed on Tuesday, both slightly ahead of their respective five-year averages, while soybean condition ratings declined. Swift harvest progress amid mostly dry weather has been pressuring U.S. grain futures prices, although persistent dryness during the growing season is believed to have hurt yields in the world's No. 2 exporter of corn and soy.

Oct 10 - Ukrainian grain export line up builds, with 800k mt already booked (AgriCensus)

- Analysis of shipping line up data suggests that activity in Ukraine's deep sea ports has now increased to levels that are comparable with the early days of the original grain deal, with approximately 800,000 mt already seen as loaded or expected to load in the coming days.  Ukrainian authorities announced a humanitarian export corridor back on August 10, safeguarding shipments from and to the Black Sea ports of Pivdenniy, Odesa and Chornomorsk (POC) and, after a slow start, activity has picked up.

- Since the first vessels to enter the ports arrived on September 17, the lineup has significantly increased, wth eight vessels now managing to leave the port carrying around 242,000 mt of grains and iron ore. Another 14 vessels have already arrived or are expected to arrive into Ukrainian ports in the near future, with at least 560,000 mt of cargo expected to be moved out of the country. However, trade sources expect the flow further increase as more confidence appears among market participants and more vessels enter the ports.

That compares with the first month after the grain deal was first brokered between Ukraine and Russia by authorities from the United Nations and Turkey, back on July 22, 2022.

Back then, the first vessels started to move out on August 1.

By the end of August, 1.55 million mt of agricultural commodities had been shipped, but the figure also included around 1 million mt of cargo that was loaded on vessels that had been stuck in ports since the Russian invasion began on February 24, 2022.

As such, the total volume that was delivered by the freshly booked vessels was closer to 500,000 mt - meaning the humanitarian corridor is already ahead of that early pace. For now, it is not clear if the Ukrainian humanitarian corridor can maintain the same results, or even grow in the same way as the grain deal did when it was first signed - and there are some notable challenges, not least the presence of Russian naval forces in the Black Sea. Alongside that, turning the initial 800,000 mt of expected exports into a more consistent flow will also prove to be a challenge - by the end of September 2022, the Black Sea grain initiative had reported 3.9 million mt of cargo had been shipped.

That comes as there remains a number of risks associated with loading from Ukrainian ports, and the trade is most likely to be able to trade only those cargoes that have been already loaded, which limits the activity.

Oct 10 - Crop Watch: Harvest pace quickens, beans in spotlight - Braun
Most of the U.S. Crop Watch producers reported quick harvest progress in the first week of October, and soybeans were the prime beneficiary as many areas are close to wrapping up those efforts. Five Crop Watch soybean fields were harvested between last Monday and Sunday, three with slightly better than expected results and two with notably worse ones. Just two Crop Watch soybean fields await harvest: Ohio and North Dakota. 

Oct 10 - Ivory Coast weather boosts farmers' hopes for cocoa main crop
A mixture of rain and strong sunny spells over most of Ivory Coast’s main cocoa growing regions last week should help small pods develop and extend the October-to-March main crop, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is in its rainy season which usually runs from April to mid-November.

Oct 09 - Russian wheat, corn export taxes revised up for October 11-17

- The Russian government has increased export taxes on wheat and corn for the coming week of October 11 to 17, while the tax on barley has been reduced, the agriculture ministry said in an official notice Friday. The export duty on wheat increased by RUB 659.40/mt to RUB 5,224/mt, which corresponds to $52.40/mt at the official Central Bank exchange rate set at RUB 99.67 to $1.

The basic seven-day average index published by the Moscow Exchange rose by $4.30/mt and settled at $248.8/mt.

For corn, the export duty increased by RUB 267/mt to RUB 3,120.80/mt or $31.30/mt.

The average MOEX index amounted to $206.80/mt, having decreased by $0.60/mt compared to last week.

Finally, the export duty on barley fell by RUB 85/mt to RUB 1,166.10/mt, corresponding to $11.7/mt at current exchange rates, while the benchmark index fell by $5.20/mt to $178.40/mt.

When calculating the index for corn and barley, transactions registered with loading in the ports of the Caspian Sea, as well as ports of the Azov and Black Seas are currently taken into account.

Oct 09 - New drought in Argentina threatens 'massive losses' for wheat, little rain seen
Argentina's core agricultural farmland could suffer "massive losses" in wheat yields due to another drought, the Rosario Grains Exchange warned late on Thursday, even as the country reels from a drought in the last cycle deemed the worst in 60 years. The exchange has not yet changed its forecast for a 15 million metric ton wheat harvest for the current 2023/2024 harvesting season. 

Oct 09 - Russian grain deliveries to Africa to start within a month - Ifax cites agriculture minister
Russia will start delivering its grain to African countries within a month to six weeks, the Interfax news agency cited Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev as saying on Friday. "We are now finalising all the documents. I think that within a month - or a month and a half - they will start," Interfax quoted Patrushev as saying.

Oct 06 - Argentina's soy crushers face 'disaster' as bean shortage sharpens, chamber head says
Argentina's giant soybean processing plants are running out of soybeans after a historic drought cut the crop in half, the head of the country's grains export chamber told Reuters, and this will leave well over two-thirds of factory capacity idle. "We are in a disastrous year," said Gustavo Idigoras, president of the grain exporters and crushing chamber CIARA-CEC, adding he expected idle capacity at the country's crushing plants along the Parana river to shoot past the current 65%. 

Oct 06 - Asian wheat millers seen boosting imports on higher price expectations
Asian flour millers are likely to step up purchases as global wheat supplies are forecast to tighten in the months ahead, with dry weather reducing production in some key exporting countries. Wheat importers, including from Indonesia, the world's No. 2 buyer, and China were actively seeking cargoes this week for shipment in December and early 2023, three trade sources said.

Oct 05 - Russia's wheat export pace rises by 33% to 1 m mt, YTD 15m mt, up 59% (AgriCensus)

- Russian wheat exports from Black Sea ports increased pace by 30% to 1 million mt in the week ending October 4, Agricensus analysis of port line-up data showed Thursday. However, wheat export flows are still expected to fall in October against a backdrop of declining sales by Russian exporters due to falling demand from major importing countries, and an unofficial floor price for Russian wheat that does not help trade and has limited sales in tenders.

The forecast for wheat exports in October 2023 is about 4.5 million mt, lower than the record 5.5 million mt in September and lower than a year ago when exports amounted to 4.9 million mt, according to Rusagrotrans. Total wheat exports, including rail and small port shipments, have now moved to around 15 million mt, which is 59% higher than last year.

- Egypt was the biggest importer of wheat in the repoting week with 176,273 mt headed there, followed by Bangladesh with 163,583 mt, and Iran with 111,200 mt.
- Some 67,000 mt meanwhile was exported to Oman, 64,500 mt to Italy, 55,500 mt to Indonesia, 55,000 mt to Yemen, 54,993 mt to Turkey, and 53,000 mt to Israel.
- In addition, 52,976 mt of wheat was exported to Pakistan, 38,500 mt to Angola, 34,000 mt to Libya, 30,600 mt to Brazil, and 22,000 mt to Spain, while the destination for 45,500 mt was not specified.

Official Russian statistical office Rosstat estimated wheat stocks at 28.8 million mt as of September 1, 9% lower than the same date last year, when stocks were at a record level for post-Soviet times. The main reason for the decrease in stocks was the record export in the new season.

Sovecon estimates exports in 2023/24 at 48.9 million mt, 2 million mt more than a year earlier.

It was also affected by the worsening of forecasts for the wheat harvest, which the company estimates at 91.6 million mt against 104.2 million mt a year earlier due to less favorable weather conditions.

Analysts also suggest that wheat quality could be the lowest since 2018 when the share of milling wheat fell to 70% due to rains, while in 2022, the final share of milling wheat was around 80%.

Oct 05 - Dairy Price Update: EU prices hitting multi-month highs (IHSmarkit)

- EU butter and WMP prices have hit 9-week highs
- Cheese vats continue to be prioritized over the butter churns
- Whey prices bounce back to hit a 19-week high

For a second consecutive week, there has been notable firming in European dairy prices. Milk collections in France are reported to have fallen to 6% below year-ago levels.

For a third consecutive week the EU Commission butter price rose to reach a 9-week high, up 2.0% w/w to €4,562/metric ton. This is the highest weekly gain in this latest upward trend. Despite the gain prices remain slightly below the 5-year average and 37% below year-ago levels.

Demand for butter remains stable, while supply is tight. There are some frozen supplies, but the availability of fresh butter is low. The butter churns remain relatively quiet which is keeping the supplies low, but current margins mean it is not attractive to run churns at full capacity. Continuing the trend seen throughout 2023, cheese vats are being prioritized over butter churns.

Although being prioritized, the cheese vats are not quite managing to keep up with demand. The EU Edam price gained 0.4% this week, to €4,062/t. This puts the Edam price a touch below the price recorded in the w/ending September 10, but barring that one week the price is at a 19-week high. The price maintains a 12% premium over the 5-year average. The Emmental price did slip 2.2% this week to €6,151/t, however, the price maintains a premium to year-ago levels and therefore remains expensive on historic terms.

WMP gained 1.9% this week, to €3,405/t, putting it at a 9-week high. In a similar move, the SMP price gained 3.0% to €2,397/t which is a 3-month high. Demand for milk powders from within the EU has picked up, with the calls from import also increasing. Asia is back, although opinions are divided over whether this is a more permanent return or not. Demand from the Middle East and North Africa is active. Supply is somewhat tight but is sufficient for demand.

After last week's drop, whey prices have bounced back. Demand for whey continues to improve although the large inventories from earlier in the year will continue to impact prices until cleared. In the latest week, the price gained 4.8% w/w to €731/t which is a 19-week high.

Oct 05 - EU soybean oil purchases nearly double on year y/y (IHSmarkit)

- Sunflower oil purchases increase 41% y/y
- Brazil’s share of soybean meal imports at 68.5%
- Spain leading soybean oil buyer in bloc

The EU’s soybean oil imports in marketing year 2023-24 (July-June) soared to 198,149 metric tons as of Oct. 1, up from 100,052 metric tons during the same week a year earlier, European Commission data showed Oct. 3.

The bloc’s sunflower oil purchases increased 41% to 592,986 metric tons over the same period.

According to market sources, the surge in soybean and sunflower oil purchases by the bloc was led primarily by an earlier slump in the supply of palm amid environmental concerns.

The region’s rapeseed oil purchases remained unchanged on the year at 130,777 metric tons, while palm oil imports declined by 11% to 873,393 metric tons, the data showed.

The EU’s soybean purchases decreased slightly on the year to 2.854 million metric tons as of Oct. 1 in MY 2023-24 (July-June), while soybean meal imports declined by 2% to 3.79 million metric tons.

Spain replaced Poland as the largest soybean oil buyer in the bloc in the most recent reporting week, while the Netherlands emerged as the leading buyer of raw soybean and meal derivatives, the data showed.

The share of Brazil-origin products in the EU’s raw soybean imports stood at 52.5%, while its contribution of soybean meal stood at 68.5% in the most recent reporting week.

The EU is the world’s top soybean meal importer and the second-biggest buyer of soybeans.

Oct 05 - Australian farm incomes set to fall 41% as El Nino limits rains
The Australian government said it expects dry weather and low livestock prices to reduce average farm incomes by 41% in the 2023–24 financial year, taking them back to levels last seen three years ago. Average cash income per broadacre farm is expected to fall to A$197,000 from a record-breaking A$350,000 in 2021-22 and A$332,000 in 2022-23, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences said in a report. 

Oct 05 - Argentina wheat productivity at risk after recent rains disappoint
Argentina's agricultural heartland needs more rain soon to avoid wheat productivity losses and finish planting early season corn, after showers last week failed to quench parched farmlands, the Rosario grains exchange said on Wednesday. In a report, the exchange said that between 15-20 milliliters of water are needed "to maintains the crops' potential," but that in general less than half of the agricultural area has received this much rain.

Oct 05 - Grain sources cast doubt on Black Sea grain initiative talks, but rumors persist (AgriCensus)

- Black Sea trade sources have cast doubt on rumors that talks are set to resume on the export grain initiative on October 5, with most arguing that there is little point to restoring the four-way agreement that allowed exports from Ukraine's deep water ports of Odesa, Pivdenniy and Chornomorsk. Rumors have been circulating among market participants that Russia could be poised to make a return to the grain deal initiative from October 5, after pulling out of the deal back in July 2023.

- The deal had originally been signed between Ukraine, the United Nations and Turkey, with a mirror deal signed between Russia, the UN and Turkey, but was allowed to lapse when Russia declined to resign. The trade rumours, most of which seem to come from Russia-based sources, expect Turkey will guarantee the safety of vessels operating in the Black Sea and, as such, will allow unhindered export of grains and sunflower from both Ukraine and Russia. More controversially, the rumors also suggest a guarantee for the export of petrol, oil and lubricants from Russia would be included, in return for exports of the same products from the EU into three Ukrainian deep sea ports.

- Also, key Russian demands for readmission to the international electronic banking system, SWIFT, and a guarantee of Russian fertlizer exports via Ukrainian ports has been dropped by Russian authorities amid acceptance that there is no possibility of implementing such an arrangement. Along with that, it was also said that Turkey will process payments for Russian sunseeds and grains through its two state banks, with a 12% commission.

Doubts
- However, trade sources spoken to by Agricensus also suggested that such reports were untrue and claimed there is no reason or incentive for Ukraine to return to the grain deal and give control over the flow of exports back to Turkey, the UN and especially Russia.

Ukraine's use of marine and aerial drones against Russian ports and shipping in the mainland and in the disputed territory of Crimea has proved a consistent irritant to Russian naval forces and spurred more confidence.

On the back of that, Ukraine declared the opening of its own humanitarian corridor - allowing a wider selection exports than simply grains - in August, initially enabling ships that had been stuck in port since the Russian invasion began to leave.

Since the opening of the humanitarian corridor, eleven vessels have already arrived in Ukraine, and eight of those have left successfully, but there are more expected to enter the region soon, but trade sources expressed fears that recommitting to the grains initiative could slow building momentum.
“The UN only will put the process into frames, which nobody really needs,” a source said.

Another Ukrainian source familiar with the matter said that for now there were only talks about the current humanitarian corridor, while the UN said that for now they could only confirm that negotiations are “ongoing”.
“The UN remains determined to ensure that Ukrainian grains can be exported and reach the global market, for the sake of Ukrainian farmers and the world’s poorest people who need affordable food. These efforts continue in that regard, including through talks with the Russian Federation,” UN representatives said in response to an official request from AgriCensus.

Trade sources also agreed that it was possible that there remain negotiations underway, but still did not expect a final result to be agreed upon and certainly not within the next 24 hours. Along with that, Russian media RIA News reported that more clarity regarding the status and continuation of the grain deal initiative may appear closer to the end of 2023, but for now there is no significant progress.

The grain deal initiative was stopped on July 17, 2023, after Russia withdrew from the deal - although significant delays at inspection stages meant that shipments were already significantly delayed - with some ships facing months waiting at Istanbul.

That had brought accusations from Ukrainian authorities that Russian inspection teams under the Joint Coordination Centre were effectively sabotaging the arrangement by holding up their approvals for as long as possible.  

But on  August 10, Ukrainian naval forces opened a humanitarian corridor for commercial vessels, with few vessels that had been stuck since the Russian invasion leaving Ukrainian ports in August, before the arrivals of eight vessels to load iron ore and grains in September.

Oct 04 - Australian farmers survey finds little more than half expect higher output
A little over half of Australia's farmers expect the country's agricultural output to grow over the next decade, according to a survey published on Wednesday, with optimism in short supply among livestock farmers particularly. A survey of 1,600 farmers by the National Farmers Federation and communications agency Seftons pointed to frustration with issues including the pricing power of supermarkets, environmental laws and poor infrastructure.

Oct 04 - World's biggest palm oil exchange sets sights on soyoil futures
Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, known for offering the most liquid crude palm oil futures in the world, is planning to launch soyoil futures in the first quarter of the next year, a senior exchange official said. The exchange has been working on finalising the contract specifications, which will be completed this year before the contract's launch in early 2024, said Mohd Saleem, director, derivatives market at Bursa Malaysia.

Oct 03 - Drastic fall in potato prices in Europe (IHSmarkit)

- Prices hovering around €105/t in Belgium and the Netherlands
- Decline due to oversupplies on the free market
- First crop estimates suggest an increase in the seasonal output

Initial quotes of potato for processing have dropped sharply in Belgium with spot prices for Fontane variety currently hovering around €100-106 ($105-112) per metric ton, less than half the price reported for the same variety in October 2022 (€257.5/t) and much lower than the over €600/t quoted ahead of the start of the season.

In the Netherlands, prices of the same variety were in the range of €110/t as of 25 September (latest quote available), down by 24% from the previous week and by 56% on a year-on-year comparison.

The decline in price is linked to the low demand on the free market due to much larger contracted volumes. Given the uncertainty of the past few seasons, processors have contracted more potatoes and their prices are higher (between €170-180/t in Belgium) than those traded on the spot market. At the same time, the potato regrowth was higher than expected so factories are well supplied by contracted volumes and less dependent on the free market. In addition, there has been an earlier release of stocks as some volumes of potatoes are unsuitable for storage due to issues including phytophthora.

Pressure on prices might be also linked to higher-than-expected yields. First estimates from France and Germany indicate an increase in harvested volumes in 2023 by 12% and 2% y/y, respectively.
“Producers must take all necessary precautions when considering these quotations, and not succumb to ‘panic’, as the market fundamentals remain robust over the long term of the campaign, hence the importance of storage,” the North-Western European Potato Growers organization wrote on a statement.

It is estimated that the European potato processing industry will need 2.0 million metric tons more than in the past two seasons and, according to market sources, the prospected harvest of 22 million metric tons in the top- European production countries (Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and France), would be just enough to cover the industry’s needs. Within this scenario prices are expected to rebound once the harvest is over. The NEPG warns that current low prices might act as a deterrent to increase investments in the potato planted area for the 2024 season across Europe.

Oct 03 - Freight rates for grain exports via new Black Sea route fall sharply, Ukraine says
A new corridor allowing cargo vessels to carry Ukrainian grain and iron ore from Black Sea ports has significantly lowered freight rates and they are likely to fall further, Ukraine's farm minister said on Monday. Kyiv launched what it calls a temporary humanitarian corridor in August to allow agricultural exports as an alternative arrangement after Russia blocked the U.N.-backed Black Sea grain deal that had been in place for a year. 

Oct 03 - Argentina extends soy export incentives to shore up foreign reserves
Argentina's government said on Monday it will extend a program to boost grain exports to shore up the country's meager foreign reserves, as it looks to meet International Monetary Fund targets amid an economic crisis.The Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Monday that the PIE boosted last month's soy sales in Argentina by 5.1 million metric tons.

 

Oct 02 - India's monsoon rains hit five-year low due to El Nino

India's monsoon rainfall this year was its lowest since 2018 as the El Nino weather pattern made August the driest in more than a century, the state-run weather department said on Saturday. The monsoon, which is vital for India's $3 trillion economy, brings nearly 70% of the rain the country needs to water crops and replenish reservoirs and aquifers.  

Oct 02 - US raises wheat harvest view; futures fall to 3-year low
The U.S. wheat harvest was bigger than previously estimated despite drought in key production areas of the U.S. Plains, the government said on Friday. The surprise forecast pushed futures prices at the Chicago Board of Trade to their lowest levels in three years, adding a fresh challenge for farmers as they finalize winter wheat planting decisions.

Sep 29 - USDA soybean, wheat quarterly stocks exceed expectations, corn tighter (USDA & AgriCensus)

- The US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s September quarterly stocks outlook update delivered tighter than expected corn reserves, while both soybean and wheat stocks were slightly higher than projected by market participants.

Corn
- Starting with corn, the USDA reported that corn stocks in all positions on September 2023 totaled 1.36 billion bushels, 4.8% below market expectations and 1.1% lower than at the same point last year.
- Prior to the report analysts projected that the department would report that reserves would come in at 1.439 million mt.
- Of the total stocks, 605 million bushels are stored on farms (up 19% YOY) and 756 million bushels are off-farm stocks (down 13% YOY).
- The June-August 2023 indicated disappearance is 2.75 billion bushels, compared with 2.97 billion bushels during the same period last year.
- Apparent consumption (or disappearance) is calculated by the difference in stocks at the beginning of each quarter subtracting supplies during the period (production and imports).

Soybean
- Soybean stocks on September 1, 2023, totaled 268 million bushels, down 2% from 274 million bushels on September 1, 2022.
- The total exceeded the expectations of market participants polled before the report who projected stocks would total 242 million bushels.
- On-farm stocks are estimated at 72 million bushels (up 14%), while off-farm stocks were listed at 196 million bushels (down 7%)
- Indicated disappearance was at 528 million bushels, down 24% from the same period a year earlier.

Wheat
- The USDA reported that stocks stood at 1.78 billion bushels, up by a minimal 0.1% from a year ago, and slightly higher than the 1.77 million projected by market participants before the report’s release.
- Durum stocks specifically were at 57 million bushels, up 6% from September 2022.
- Wheat stocks being held by farmers are estimated at 598 million bushels, up 1% from last year, while off-farm stocks stood at 1.18 billion bushels, down by less than 1%.

The June-August 2023 indicated disappearance is 614 million bushels, up 8% from the same period a year earlier.

Sep 29 - Ample supplies in Chinese corn market to weigh on global prices
A large domestic corn crop and surging imports from Brazil are set to flood the Chinese market in coming weeks, reducing demand for other grains and pressuring global corn prices already near three-year lows, analysts and traders expect. The world's No. 2 corn producer has begun its harvest, with output likely to surpass last year's total, even after the summer's typhoons damaged crops in some northern provinces. 

Sep 29 - Dry weather threatens Argentine wheat, but rain on the horizon
Argentine wheat yields during the 2023/24 season in western farmland could continue to fall if much-needed rains do not arrive quickly, the Buenos Aires grains exchange (BdeC) warned in a report on Thursday. Agricultural powerhouse Argentina is a top global exporter of the grain used to make bread and pasta, but a historic drought severely hit the previous 2022/23 crop as the country's western agricultural areas still await rainfall that has helped restore humidity levels in eastern wheat-growing farmland.

Sep 28 - EU 2023-24 corn imports down 41% y/y (IHSmarkit)

- Ukraine, Brazil top corn suppliers to EU in MY 2023-24
- S&P Global analyst forecast EU 2023-24 corn output at 61.4 million metric tons
- Export volumes down 10% on year at 286,549 metric tons

The EU’s corn imports during the 2023-24 marketing year (July-June) stood at 3.9 million metric tons as of Sept. 24, down 41% from the corresponding period last year, EU Crop Observatory data showed Sept. 26. So far during the year, Ukraine has been the largest supplier of corn to the EU at 1.9 million metric tons, followed by Brazil at 1.4 million metric tons.

Spain was the EU’s largest importer of corn at 1.5 million metric tons, followed by Netherlands (538,158 metric tons) and Italy (498,680 metric tons).

The EU is one of the world’s top corn importers. In MY 2022-23, it imported 6.61 million metric tons, largely from Brazil and Ukraine.

The European Commission’s Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development on Aug. 24 forecast total corn production at 61.9 million metric tons for MY 2023-24, compared with 53 million metric tons harvested in MY 2022-23.

According to Victoria Sinitsyna, senior grains analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, the EU’s corn output in MY 2023-24 is estimated at 61.4 million metric tons. Sinitsyna forecast corn imports for MY 2023-24 at 21.3 million metric tons, down from actual imports of 26.4 million metric tons in the previous year.
Exports dip 10%

The EU exported 286,549 metric tons of corn so far in MY 2023-24, down 10% year on year, according to EU Crop Observatory data.
The top export destinations were the UK (120,047 metric tons) and South Korea (49,636 metric tons).
Sinitsyna estimated EU corn exports for MY 2023-24 at 4 million metric tons, up from realized exports of 3.7 million metric tons in MY 2022-23.

Platts, part of S&P Global, assessed corn FOB CVB basis Constanta price at $221 per metric ton Sept. 26, up $1/t on the day

Sep 28 - EU soybean oil purchases nearly double on year (IHSmarkit)

- Brazil's share of soybean meal imports at 68%
- EU sunflower oil purchases increase 42%
- Spain leading soybean oil buyer in bloc

The EU’s soybean oil imports in marketing year 2023-24 (July-June) soared to 187,681 metric tons as of Sept. 24, up from 94,926 metric tons during the same week a year earlier, European Commission data showed Sept. 26.

The bloc's sunflower oil purchases increased 42% to 553,306 metric tons over the same period. According to market sources, the surge in soybean and sunflower oil purchases by the bloc was led primarily by a slump in the supply of palm as the EU tries to phase out purchase of the commodity over environmental concerns.

The region’s rapeseed oil purchases remained largely unchanged on the year at 120,954 metric tons. Palm oil imports declined by 9% to 821,115 metric tons, the data showed.

The EU’s soybean purchases increased slightly on the year to 2.69 million metric tons as of Sept. 24 in MY 2023-24 (July-June), while soybean meal imports declined by 2% to 3.512 million metric tons.

Spain replaced Poland as the largest soybean oil buyer in the bloc in the most recent reporting week, while the Netherlands emerged as the leading buyer of raw soybean and meal derivatives, the data showed.

The share of Brazilian-origin products in the EU’s raw soybean imports stood at 53.7%, while its contribution of soybean meal stood at 68.8% in the most recent reporting week.

The EU is the world’s top soybean meal importer and the second-biggest buyer of soybeans.

Sep 28 - Ukrainian corn competes into China, amid talk of 15 vessels fixed (AgriCensus)

- The potential reopening of Ukraine's deep water ports has galvanized export indications for the country to the point where price levels look competitive enough to supply corn into the key global importer of China, in a move that will give further creedence to reports of ships already being fixed.  Rumors appeared late last week that around 12 and potentially as many as 15 vessels have been fixed to be loaded from Ukrainian Black Sea ports into China, and the first physical offers appearing in the market for delivery into the country look competitive, according to trade sources.

- The move comes after the collapse of the Black Sea grain initiative earlier this year, when Russia pulled out of a four-way agreement with Turkey, the United Nations and Ukraine. Since then, Ukrainian authorities have been testing the resolve of the Russian military, who issued a warning to all civilian shipping in the Black Sea heading to Ukrainian waters after the grain deal's collapse, but a series of arrivals and departures from the key deep water ports has raised hopes that a resumption of exports is possible.

- Even though there were wide spread reports around the number of bulk vessels booked from Ukraine for October-November shipment, it proved impossible to confirm, although trade sources warned that - even if true - not all cargoes would be grain shipments. Currently any cargoes can be shipped from Ukraine, and currently a vessel with a summer deadweight of around 75,000 mt is currently loading iron ore most likely bound for China. Nonetheless, the offers that have started to circulate in the market for Ukraine-originated corn for delivery into China look competitive compared to other origins - and that means it is possible that some volume has been traded.

- Current offers were seen at $275-280/mt CFR China on Wednesday, with buying ideas heard at $260/mt CFR and possibly rising to $265/mt CFR, all for October shipment.

- However, it is expected that as more vessels head to Ukraine, freight rates would likely continue to drop, making the origin look more attractive. Since the first vessels entered Ukraine's deep sea ports of Pivdennyi, Odesa and Chornomorsk two weeks ago, freight ideas for Chinese destinations have already dropped by around $10/mt.

- That compares to offers seen from Brazil for December shipment at around $232/mt FOB Santos and freight seen at $43.50/mt, making the CFR level at around $275.50/mt.

- Meanwhile, US-origin corn is currently offered at around $235/mt FOB USG which with the freight idea at around $58/mt which might push the CFR levels to $293/mt. Both North and South American exporters have domestic issues that are likely to leave little space for either to ramp up exports, with the US facing significant issues with the Mississippi, and Brazil facing a shortage of farmer selling that is starving supply to the primary export hubs. China is the world's biggest corn importer, with the USDA’s projection for imports in the 2023/24 marketing year at 23 million mt, and used to buy up to 30% of its corn supply from Ukraine. China was also the main destination of Ukrainian corn exports in 2022/23, as the grain corridor deal enabled the supply of 5.55 million mt of corn, but since the end of thedeal, China has been forced to switch to other suppliers.

That has led to reports of large volumes of Brazilian corn rumored to have traded. Brazil supplied 902,111 mt of corn into China in July 2023 and 2.3 million mt in August, making it the main destination for its corn exports so far

Sep 28 - Ukraine grain corridor should not replace broader deal - UN trade chief
Ukraine's move to create a shipping channel for grain exports is a positive step for global food security, although efforts continue to reach a new agreement over a broader Black Sea corridor, the top U.N. trade official said on Wednesday. Russia in July quit a U.N.-backed deal which had enabled exports from Ukraine to sail from three approved ports. 

Sep 28 - US top sugar state Louisiana begins harvest expecting losses
Louisiana, the state that produced the largest amount of sugar in the United States last season, kicked off the harvest of the new crop expecting losses as drier-than-normal weather in the second half of this year hurt sugarcane development. The Alma Mill in Lakeland, southeastern Louisiana, started operations Wednesday, and other mills in the state are expected to follow through next week, said Kenneth Gravois, sugarcane specialist at the Louisiana State University.

Sep 27 - EU 2023-24 wheat exports fall 27% y/y (IHSmarkit)

- Romania, Poland, France top EU wheat suppliers in 2023-24
- EU wheat imports jump 106% on year to 2.5 million metric tons
- Ukraine and Canada main wheat suppliers to the EU

EU wheat exports in marketing year 2023-24 (July-June) reached 7.1 million metric tons as of Sept. 24, down 27.1% from the same period a year ago, EU Crop Observatory data showed Sept. 26.

The biggest exporter was Romania with 1.8 million metric tons, followed by Poland 1.4 million metric tons and France 1.3 million metric tons.
Top importer of EU-origin wheat were Morocco with 1.3 million metric tons, followed by Nigeria 725,519 metric tons and Algeria 471,841 metric tons.
In MY 2022-23, the EU exported a total 32.98 million metric tons of wheat.

The European Commission’s Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development on Aug. 24 pegged total wheat output in MY 2023-24 at 134.3 million metric tons, down from 134.7 million metric tons forecast in the previous month. The EU harvested 133.9 million metric tons in MY 2022-23.
The EU Joint Research Centre’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit, or MARS, lowered its soft wheat yield forecast to 5.78 metric tons per ha in August, from 5.80 t/ha in July.

According to Victoria Sinitsyna, senior grains analyst with S&P Global Commodity Insights, the EU's wheat output in MY 2023-24 has been estimated at 135.2 million metric tons, up from 134.7 million metric tons in MY 2022-23. Sinitsyna forecast wheat exports for MY 2023-24 at 33 million metric tons, up from actual exports of 32.98 million metric tons the previous year.
Imports surge

The EU imported 2.5 million metric tons of wheat so far in MY 2023-24, jumping 106.4% from the previous marketing year. Imports so far in the current marketing year have come mainly from Ukraine and Canada, while Spain and Italy remained the biggest importers of wheat in the region, EU Crop Observatory data showed.

Sinitsyna forecast EU wheat imports for MY 2023-24 at 6 million metric tons, down from realized imports of 11.4 million metric tons in MY 2022-23.

The pace of imports may be sluggish over the next few weeks despite the European Commission removing restrictions on imports of Ukrainian agricultural products, including wheat, as Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia have retained their unilateral regulations.

Platts, part of S&P Global, assessed EU CPT 11% protein wheat from France at $250.25 per metric ton on Sept. 26, up 25 cents/t on the day. Platts assessed EU wheat with 11.5% protein from Romania FOB at $243/t on Sept. 26, unchanged day on day.

Sep 27 - Brazil sugar output up 8.5% in early September, says UNICA
Brazil's center-south sugar production rose 8.54% in the first half of September when compared with a year earlier, totaling 3.12 million metric tons, data from industry group UNICA showed on Tuesday. UNICA said in a report that 41.76 million tons of sugarcane were crushed in the period, up 5.35% from a year ago. 

Sep 27 - East European countries want more EU checks on Ukraine grain corridors
Countries from the EU's eastern wing on Tuesday called on the European Commission to boost checks on solidarity lanes for Ukrainian grains and introduce a deposit system for exports. Ukraine has been in dispute with neighbouring allies over restrictions on its grain, which it has been forced to send overland since Russia's invasion last year.

Sep 26 - Soy dollar likely to meet expectations, domestic sales at 3.6m mt (AgriCensus)

- From the beginning of Argentina's fourth soy dollar scheme on September 5 to September 25, producers traded 3.6 million mt of soybeans in the domestic market, data from the Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR) showed on Tuesday. New trades amounted to 2.4 million mt, while price fixation for contracts made before the program amounted to 1.2 million mt. The goal of 4.5 million mt of soybean trade is likely to be achieved, as it would require only 1.2 million mt to be traded by the end of this week, considering the 265,000 mt average daily trade since it started, analyst Javier Preciado Patiño said.

- The amount is compatible with the $2.5 million dollar income targetted by the government, Patiño added.  The program is valid until next Saturday, September 30, and unlike the previous version, it is unlikely it will be extended.
"It's logical that it won't be extended because the objective was to collect dollars before the elections and that objective has been achieved; besides, there isn't much soybean left," Patiño told Agricensus.

- The country’s presidential elections will take place in October amid a shortage of dollar inflows and Economy Minister Sérgio Massa is running for office. The fourth soy dollar scheme started on September 5 and stipulates that crushers can freely use 25% of their export proceeds in foreign exchange while the remaining 75% would be exchanged at the official rate of 350 pesos per dollar.
- During the first soy dollar scheme implemented in September 2022, sales amounted to 13.2 million mt, while in the second soy dollar scheme in December 2022, they reached 5.3 million mt.
- During the third soy or agri dollar scheme, which ran from April to June this year, sales totaled 8.4 million mt.

Exports
- From September 5 to 25, soybean export license applications (DJVEs) amounted to 729,355 mt while soyoil exports reached 7,744 mt and soymeal 1,350 mt, also according to BCR. That means 99.7% of the DJVE is for soybeans and only 0.3% for soymeal and oil, the exchange said.

With low crush margins, most exports within the program were of soybeans, while the program aimed to boost crushing as the industry is currently operating with a high rate of idle capacity.

Since the beginning of the calendar year, 42% of the crushed soybean in Argentina was imported. Soybean imports reached 8.17 million mt from January to August, with 52% coming from Paraguay and 44% from Brazil, according to Patiño.

Sep 26 - US corn harvest 15% complete, soy 12%; soy ratings fall -USDA
The U.S. corn harvest was 15% complete by Sunday and the soybean harvest 12% finished, government data showed on Monday, both slightly ahead of five-year averages, while soybean condition ratings fell to their lowest since 2013 as dry conditions persisted in much of the Midwest. The soy ratings add to concerns over production prospects after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Sept. 12 forecast U.S. soybean production would fall to a four-year low of 4.146 billion bushels this year.  

Sep 26 - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers hope for sunny spells in October
A sunny spell would be needed next month to strengthen the October-to-March main crop and help fight the fungal black pod disease, farmers from Ivory Coast's main cocoa growing regions said on Monday. Rains were below average last week but soil moisture content was enough to help with the growth of the main crop, farmers said.

Sep 25 - Brazil's corn sectors faces strain as margin woes challenge top export spot (AgriCensus + Conab)

The view that Brazil would eventually overtake the US as the world’s biggest corn exporter has long been an accepted fact – a sign of the growing power of the South American country and its prodigious agricultural potential.

But unleashing millions of tonnes of corn and soybeans into global markets comes with stresses and strains and means that – even backed by such export firepower – the country’s producers and exporters face challenges even as Brazil consolidates its place in the spotlight.

Poor net corn margins are the latest reward for Brazil’s industrious farmers, where the returns for their expansive production have been besieged by high input costs, poor demand outlooks and ongoing sparring with still potent US export capacity.

The Brazilian food supply agency, Conab, has already warned that the poor returns are likely to result in a smaller planted area next year, and that could have consequences for the contested position as the world’s number one exporter.

Sep 25 - China to hold first reserve sugar sale in seven years amid supply squeeze
China will hold an auction of its first sale of state sugar reserves since 2016 next week amid tightening supply and rocketing prices of the sweetener. The state reserve's management body in a notice on Friday said it would auction 126,700 metric tons of sugar on Sept. 27 to ensure the stability of domestic sugar supply and prices. 

Sep 25 - EU's bid to save bees stings sugar beet farmers
Europe's sugar beet growers are turning away from the crop in a move that could drive soaring prices even higher, as the EU's environmental rules clash with its bid to stem food inflation and secure supplies. Farmers are switching crops after the European Union's top court ruled in January they can no longer be granted exemptions to a ban on so-called neonics - insecticides which protect against diseases like virus yellows in sugar beet but are toxic to bees and other pollinators vital to food production.

Sep 22 - Three more commercial vessels bound for Ukraine's Black Sea ports (AgriCensus)

- Another three commercial vessels are approaching Ukraine's Black Sea ports to be loaded with agricultural products and iron ore, according to the Minister of Community Development, Territories and Infrastructure of Ukraine, Oleksandr Kubrakov. Oleksandr Kubrakov published a note on Friday saying that three bulk vessels are heading towards Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi ports using the so-called temporary corridor for civilian vessels created at the initiative of the Ukrainian authorities.

After loading more than 127,000 mt of agricultural products and iron ore, the vessels will be heading to China, Egypt and Spain, the note said. The first two vessels to use the temporary corridor established by the Ukrainian Armed Forces Navy, Resilient Africa and Aroyat, were successfully loaded in Chornomorsk port and dispatched earlier this week. Those vessels are carrying more than 20,000 mt of grains. The Resilient Africa has already safely passed the Bosporus Strait.

- However, for now, the increase in vessel movements has not led to a revival in trade on a CPT basis in Ukraine or on the acceptance of new product shipments in Pivdennyi, Odesa or Chornomorsk (POC) ports.
 
All the vessels have been loaded with products already available at the terminals, according to trade sources.

Sep 22 - Egypt’s GASC picks up 63k mt of sunoil at $880/mt (AgriCensus)

- Egypt’s state-backed importing agency, General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) is thought to have picked up over 60,000 mt of sunflower oil after concluding a tender, trade sources have told Agricensus Thursday. The agency was thought to have booked five cargoes of sunflower oil with all sold at a price at sight of $880/mt.

Each cargo was sold by a different trade company, with TOI Commodities selling 12,000 mt, InterGrain SA supplying another 18,000 mt, and Green Suppliers selling 12,000 mt.

Alongside that, Aston Agro Industrial sold 11,000 mt with the final volume coming from Bulgaria-based Oliva AD with another 10,000 mt.

The cargoes are expected to arrive between December 15-31, according to the sources. Initially, GASC had tendered on September 18 for soybean oil and sunflower oil, inviting offers for both international and local supply.

Sep 22 - IGC raises corn crop forecast, wheat outlook trimmed
The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday raised its forecast for 2023/24 global corn production, boosted by an improved outlook for Ukraine's crop. The inter-governmental body, in a monthly update, raised its 2023/24 global corn crop forecast by 1 million metric tons to 1.222 billion tons, with Ukraine's output seen at 28 million tons, up from a previous projection of 27 million.

Sep 22 - South Korean mills buy 94,400 T of US wheat
- traders
A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 94,400 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Thursday, European traders said. The purchase involved several different wheat types and was all bought on an FOB basis in two consignments.

Sep 21 - Australia faces further wheat crop losses as September heat dents yields
Australia's wheat production is likely to decline further as hot and dry weather in September, a crucial month for crop development, curbs yields, threatening to tighten global supplies. Analysts have cut their forecasts for Australia's wheat harvest by at least a million metric tons from the official forecast made earlier this month and said more crop losses were likely if the dryness continued.

Sep 21 - Heat wave at end of Brazil's winter raises concerns for coffee crop

A strong heat wave moving over most of Brazil this week, amid the last days of winter in the Southern Hemisphere, is raising concerns among farmers and agronomists about the health of the coffee fields in the world's largest producer and exporter. Forecasters expect temperatures above 40 Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) in many coffee producing regions in Brazil this week, with no rains seen until at least the end of the month.

Sep 21 - Algeria bought total of around 600,000 T wheat in tender - traders
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has purchased a total of around 600,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed on Tuesday, European traders said on Wednesday. Purchases on Wednesday were reported at between $274 and $275 a ton cost and freight (c&f) included, with the main weight on Wednesday’s purchases seen at $275 a ton, traders said.

Sep 21 - South Korean mills buy 50,000 T wheat from Australia
A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from Australia in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said. The purchase involved several wheat grades for shipment between Dec. 16 and Dec. 31.

Sep 21 - Ukrainian sunflowers will not be supplied to Bulgaria's market, despite crushers' pleas (AgriCensus)

- Bulgaria's government has held lengthy negotiations with the country's farmers over proposed imports of Ukrainian sunflower seeds as the country attempts to plug a potential gap in supply, trade sources have told Agricensus Wednesday.  The talks are understood to have concluded late Tuesday with a decision to block any imports amid strike action from Bulgarian farmers - and against a backdrop of wider discontent over the impact of cross-border trade in the region.
“Difficult negotiations between farmers and the government took place last night,” one Bulgaria-based broker told Agricensus, Wednesday.
“Our prime minister stated that there will be no import of sunflower seeds from Ukraine, especially until some kind of quarterly or licensing system is established between Bulgaria and Ukraine,” the broker added.

- That comes despite the fact that Bulgaria needs Ukrainian sunflowers after hot, dry conditions pared back the country's production prospects and left the country's crushers repeatedly calling for help to secure supply.  However, the government caved in to the farmers amid an ongoing disagreement over the impact that imports of Ukrainian agricultural commodities - displaced by Russia's invasion of Ukraine - have had on neighbouring EU markets.
“Bulgaria needs the seeds, but the farmers are in a strong position to bargain - they have money and political influence on a local level and we have local elections in a month,” a trader based in Bulgaria said.

- That comes against the backdrop of the fact that EU countries, and Bulgaria in particular, expect a reduction in the sunflower harvest due to the hot summer conditions. According to September estimates of the sunflower harvest by local Bulgarian companies, Bulgaria in the 2022/23 season will harvest a sunflower crop of 1.7-1.8 million mt, and in Romania around 2.3 million mt, which is lower than August expectations by 17% and 11 .5% respectively. At the same time, contracts that were concluded for the supply of sunflower seeds to Bulgaria are frozen at this stage and are awaiting a final decision from the Bulgarian government.

- A week earlier, on September 14, the Bulgarian government voted to lift the temporary ban on the import of Ukrainian grains and oilseeds from September 15, and this decision had to be approved by the European Commission. After Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the blockade of Ukrainian ports, which made exporting sunflower oil by sea impossible, Ukrainian farmers were forced to sell sunflowers for export. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, in the 2021/22 and 2022/23 seasons, Ukraine exported 1.63 million mt and almost 1.9 million mt of sunflower, respectively. In the first half of the 2022/23 season, before the introduction of a temporary ban on imports from five EU countries bordering Ukraine, 79% of the total volume of Ukrainian sunflower exports for the season, or 1.5 million mt, went to EU countries. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, supplies of Ukrainian sunflower to Bulgaria in the 2022/23 season amounted to 493,027 mt, which is 33% of the total volume of Ukrainian sunflower exports to EU countries.

Sep 20 - Kyiv acts on 'compromise' plan after filing WTO trade complaint over food ban
Ukraine appealed to three neighbouring countries in the European Union on Tuesday to embark on "constructive dialogue" to end a dispute over agricultural trade, and approved what it called a "compromise scenario." Poland, Slovakia and Hungary announced restrictions on imports from Ukraine on Friday after the European Commission decided not to extend a ban on sales into Ukraine's five EU neighbours, which also include Romania and Bulgaria.

Sep 20 - Brazil's 2023/2024 grain production to shrink slightly
- Conab
Brazil's overall grain production in the 2023/2024 cycle is set to shrink 1% compared with the previous season, totaling 319.5 million metric tons, the food supply and statistics agency Conab predicted on Tuesday. The lower forecast was driven by an expected 9.1% drop in Brazil's total corn crop, to 119.8 million tons, fueled by a predicted 4.8% drop in harvest area to 21.2 million hectares, Conab said in its first forecast for the 2023/2024 cycle.

Sep 20 - South Korea’s MFG bought some 68,000 T corn in private deal
- traders
South Korea's Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South America or South Africa in a private deal on Tuesday without issuing an international tender, European traders said. It was bought at a premium estimated at 185 U.S. cents a bushel c&f over the Chicago March 2024 corn contract.

Sep 20 - Algeria bought about 30,000 metric tons feed barley last week - traders
Algerian state agency OAIC is believed to have purchased about 30,000 metric tons of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins in a tender which closed on Thursday, European traders said on Tuesday. No purchase was reported of 80,000 tons of corn from Argentina also sought in the tender, traders said.

Sep 19 - US corn harvest 9% complete, soy 5%; ratings lowest in a decade - USDA
The U.S. corn harvest was 9% complete by Sunday and the soybean harvest 5% complete, government data showed on Monday, both ahead of five-year averages, however crop condition ratings hovered at their lowest in a decade, reflecting dry conditions in much of the Midwest. Market players have been waiting to learn more about the crops since the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Sept. 12 forecast that U.S. soybean production would fall to a four-year low of 4.146 billion bushels this year.

Sep 19 - Extreme Brazil heat in last week of winter a risk to soybean planting

A large part of Brazil is expected to suffer from extreme heat this week, with meteorologists warning of temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius (104°F), which could hamper the country's soybean planting. Atmospheric conditions will prevent the arrival of cold fronts in most of the country over the next few days, prompting a long sequence of sunny days with heat well above the normal levels for the last week of winter in the Southern Hemisphere, said independent weather forecaster Climatempo.

Sep 19 - Farm trade dispute creates rift between Ukraine and its allies
A dispute over agricultural trade created a rift on Monday between Ukraine and some of its strongest allies in the European Union after three member states imposed unilateral measures to restrict imports from the war-torn country. Poland, Slovakia and Hungary announced restrictions on imports on Friday after the European Commission decided not to extend a ban on sales into Ukraine's five EU neighbours, which also include Romania and Bulgaria.

Sep 19 - Cargo vessel leaves Ukraine's Chornomorsk after loading grain
- industry source
One cargo vessel carrying grain has left the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Chornomorsk for the first time since a grain deal collapsed, an industry source told Reuters on Tuesday, in a test of Ukraine's ability to unblock its seaports for grain export. Ukraine last month announced a "humanitarian corridor" in the Black Sea to release ships trapped in its ports since the start of war in February 2022 and to circumvent a de facto blockade after Russia abandoned a deal to let Kyiv export grain.

Sep 18 - Malaysia says China to increase imports of Malaysian palm oil - report
China will increase its imports of Malaysian palm oil by 250,000 metric tons a year, state news agency Bernama reported on Sunday, citing Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. Anwar's announcement was made after he witnessed the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Malaysian palm oil firm Sime Darby Oils International Ltd and China's Guangxi Beibu Gulf International Port Group, Bernama said.

Sep 18 - Soaring rice prices sow hope - and trouble - for indebted Thai farmers
Thailand's centuries-old rice cultivation system is under severe stress from climate change, unsustainable farm debts and a lack of innovation, according to interviews with two experts and a review of government data. These pressures on the sector, reported in detail for the first time by Reuters, are squeezing debt-laden Thai farmers despite tens of billions of dollars in subsidies over the past decade.

Sep 18 - Two ships headed to Ukraine's Black Sea ports to load grain - official
Two cargo vessels were headed to Ukrainian ports on Saturday, the first to use a temporary corridor to sail into Black Sea ports and load grain for African and Asian markets, a senior Ukrainian government official told Reuters. Last month Ukraine announced a "humanitarian corridor" in the Black Sea to release ships trapped in its ports since the start of the war in February 2022 and circumvent a de facto blockade after Russia abandoned a deal to let Kyiv export grain.

Sep 18 - Poland, Hungary, Slovakia to introduce own bans on Ukraine grains

Poland, Slovakia and Hungary announced their own restrictions on Ukrainian grain imports on Friday after the European Commission decided not to extend its ban on imports into Ukraine's five EU neighbours.Ukraine was one of the world's top grain exporters before Russia's 2022 invasion reduced its ability to ship agricultural produce to global markets. Ukrainian farmers have relied on grain exports through neighbouring countries since the conflict began as it has been unable to use the favoured routes through Black Sea ports.

Sep 16 - EU export ban to lapse as Ukraine agrees to ‘avoid grain import surge’ (AgriCensus)

- A statement from the European Commission has confirmed that the bloc will allow the current restrictive measures imposed on Ukrainian grain exports to expire after the country agreed to introduce legal measures to monitor the pace of imports to the European Union. A press release hailed the “constructive attitude of all participants” with the decision coming after the bloc’s executive body stating that it had analysed data relating to four key categories of agricultural exports – corn, wheat, rapeseed, and sunflower.

- The embargo was introduced following complaints from five neighbouring EU member states that complained that the flow of Ukrainian exports into their markets had depressed prices. Spearheaded by agricultural powerhouses of Poland, Bulgaria and Romania, the quintet were completed by Hungary and Slovakia who successfully lobbied the bloc’s governing bodies into imposing a ban on May 2. Initially the exceptional and temporary measures were expected to last through to June 5 but were subsequently extended to September 15 amid ongoing complaints from bordering states.

- However, the press statement agreed that the work of the Coordination Platform and the imposition of the temporary measures “the market distortions” had been addressed and that cross-border flows were now successfully operating, and volumes increasing. Under the terms of the agreement, Ukraine has undertaken to introduce unspecified legal measures within 30 days to avoid a surge in grain imports to neighbouring states. Ukrainian authorities have until September 18 to put a proposed action plan to the Coordination Platform – an agency that brings together high-level officials from Ukraine, the European Union and members of the G7 economies.

- The EC and Ukraine will continue to monitor the performance for any “unforeseen situations” and no further restrictions will be imposed until as long as the measures introduced by Ukraine are deemed to be working. The export of Ukrainian product through EU-established ‘solidarity lanes’ has provided a vital outlet for the country’s grain and oilseed supplies in the face of Russian aggression in the Black Sea.

- The blockade of the country’s deep water ports and the assault by Russian forces since the invasion began in February 2022 have curtailed free flowing exports from the country, although the UN and Turkey brokered grain export initiative re-opened three major Ukrainian ports. However, the agreement lapsed in July when Russia refused to agree to an extension. That has brought even greater pressure on Ukraine’s other export options, with the country reliant upon a slim export channel in the deep south of the country, along the Danube, and then cross-border exports into the EU. But that option has brought controversy as farmers and agricultural lobby groups from the five bordering nations accused the influx of grain and oilseed exports of weighing on domestic prices.

- Initially, the EU sought to calm the situation by trying to ensure that the cross-border flows headed on to European export ports without hurting domestic markets, but ultimately was forced to introduce restrictions earlier in the year.

Sep 15 - Strategie Grains cuts EU soft wheat export forecast
Consultancy Strategie Grains has made a sharp cut to its forecast for European Union soft wheat exports, citing a sluggish start to the season because wheat from EU origins is proving uncompetitive against Russian wheat. In its monthly report, the consultancy said it now expects EU soft wheat exports to reach 30.1 million metric tons this season, down 700,000 tons from its August forecast and well below 2022/23 exports revised upwards to 32.3 million tons. 

Sep 15 - India tightens wheat stocks limits, no plan to axe import tax
India will reduce the limit on the amount of wheat stocks that traders and millers can hold but it has no immediate plans to abolish the import duty on the grain, a top government official said, indicating sufficient local supplies. Traders, wholesalers and big retailers will be allowed to hold only 2,000 tons of wheat against 3,000 tons allowed earlier, said Sanjeev Chopra, the most senior civil servant at the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution.

Sep 14 - EU states disagree over extension of temporary ban on Ukraine imports (AgriCensus)

- Five European member states that instigated a temporary measure to block imports of agricultural products back in May appear to disagree on whether the move should be extended beyond the current deadline of September 15. Bulgaria is now insisting the measure should be lifted as the local market faces a shortage of sunflower supply to crushers, while Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia are still taking a strong position on extending the temporary ban, possibly until the end of the year, and Romania is hesitating in making a decision, local media and market sources have said.

- On Monday, September 11, three Bulgarian parties of the ruling coalition – GERP, PP, and DPS – radically changed their decision regarding the measure to prevent imports and submitted to parliament a draft decision to lift it, which, if passed would oblige the government to start allowing imports of Ukrainian agricultural products again.

- In May, the European Commission agreed to allow a temporary restriction on imports of wheat, corn, rapeseed, and sunflower into Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia until September 15, while maintaining transit through these countries, after farmers protested the increase in imports since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 had put pressure on their local markets. Whether Bulgaria’s decision will apply all four commodities or just sunflower seeds, which has caused the most controversy, remains to be seen. However, market participants assume that if the ban is lifted it will apply to all goods, as sunflower imports are of fundamental importance for Bulgaria, and grain imports are not so big an issue for farmers.
“[We are] still waiting to see it officially but I think it will be for all grains and sunflower seeds,” a broker based in Bulgaria told Agricensus.
“I think that [it will be for] all products but still need to clarify it,” another market source said.
“Usually, we import very little corn or wheat, so I suggest this is not an obstacle for local farmers/traders.”

- Poland's position remains firm and unequivocal, meanwhile, that the measures should be extended, as evidenced by statements from Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki this week.
“Poland will not open its borders to Ukrainian grain, regardless of the decision of the European Commission,” Morawiecki wrote on his Twitter page.
“Poland will not allow us to be flooded with Ukrainian grain. No matter what the decision of Brussels officials, we will not open our borders.”

- According to Bulgarian and Romanian sources, Romanian farmers and the government are also in active discussions, with the possibility of the ban being lifted.
“Farmers are against lifting the ban; the government offers support for Ukraine flows, transit of 4 million my per month,” said Cezar Gheorghe, founder of AGRI Column.
“Romania will respect in full the European Commission decision, as we did in the past when other countries took unilateral decisions to stop transit and imports from Ukraine,” he added.

- Meanwhile, since rumors the ban might be lifted emerged, Bulgarian buyers have began to take an active interest in Ukrainian sunflower, prices for which have been falling. To date, according to Agricensus monitoring data, prices have decreased by on average $15-20/mt compared with last week. Sellers' levels fell to on average $400-405/mt CIF Ruse, Selistra against buyers’ ideas at $395/mt on the same basis, while a trade of Ukrainian sunflower at $382/mt DAP Bulgaria was heard with delivery in September.

- According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, Ukraine exported almost 1.9 million mt of sunflower in the 2022/23 season, of which 1.5 million mt went to EU countries, mostly in the first half of the season before the temporary import ban was introduced. Deliveries of Ukrainian sunflower to Bulgaria in the 2022/23 season amounted to 493,027 mt, according to the ministry, which represents 33% of the total volume of Ukrainian sunflower exports to EU countries. Ukrainian exports of rapeseed to EU countries in the 2022/23 season amounted to 3.4 million mt, of which 3 million mt went to EU countries, according to the ministry.

Sep 14 - Argentina's Rosario exchange trims 2023/24 wheat harvest forecast
Argentina's Rosario grains exchange on Wednesday trimmed its forecast for the 2023/2024 wheat harvest to 15 million metric tons, down from 15.6 million tons previously estimated, as some of the country's agricultural areas strain under dry conditions. Argentina is a key global wheat exporter, and farmers are trying to recover from a disappointing 2022/23 season, a historic drought cut the harvest by 50% year-on-year to 11.5 million tons. 

Sep 14 - Tight global wheat story is stuck on repeat, supporting market bears -Braun
Chicago wheat futures this week hit their lowest levels in almost three years, yet relative to demand, exportable global wheat supplies are expected to approach historic minimums by mid-2024. In theory, that news should limit further slippage in world wheat prices, but there is one problem: this is a recurring story that has yet to become reality.

Sep 13 - China raises import estimates for 22/23 soybeans, corn (CASDE)

- China’s agriculture outlook committee has raised its estimates for the country’s imports of corn and soybeans for the 2022/23 marketing year, while also increasing its forecast for soybean imports for the 2023/24 marketing year, according to the monthly update of its China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (Casde) published on Tuesday. China’s 2023/24 marketing year runs from October to September the following year for corn, soybeans and vegetable oils.

Soybeans
- The committee’s estimates for the output of soybeans remain unchanged from last month for both 2022/23 and 2023/24, with production estimated at 20.29 million mt and 21.46 million mt, respectively.
- But it raised the estimates for imports of both 2022/23 and 2023/24 to 99.86 million mt and 97.25 million mt, respectively.
- In August, the previous month, the estimates for 2022/23 and 2023/24 stood at 95.2 million mt and 94.22 million mt.
- The expected increase in 2023/24 soybean imports is mainly due to a high demand for feed protein raw materials from China’s livestock and poultry industry, according to Casde analysts.
- Despite the estimated growth in imports, the analysts say due to disruptive factors such as high temperatures during the critical growth period of the new season of US soybeans, global soybean prices have remained relatively high.

This, coupled with a decline in the exchange rate of the CNY against the US dollar, has pushed up the costs for soybean imports, they say.
- The estimates for soybean consumption have also been raised for both 2022/23 and 2023/24 to 115.07 million mt and 116.92 million mt, respectively, partly due to an increase in crushed soybean consumption thanks to China’s gradually improving live hog breeding profits that will support demand for soymeal, according to the analysts. In August, the 2022/23 and 2023/24 consumption levels were 112.87 million mt and 114.14 million mt, respectively.

Corn
- Estimates for corn production for 2022/23 remain unchanged from August at 277.2 million mt, while they have increased by 2.6 million mt to 284.94 million mt for 2023/24.
- The largely favorable weather conditions in China’s northeastern and northern regions in August, including heavy rains brought by typhoons, had boosted corn growth, while the expected late first frost in the northeastern region will also help with the ripening of the crop, according to Casde analysts.
- Corn imports for 2022/23 meanwhile are estimated to increase by 500,000 mt to 18.5 million mt, while the estimate for 2023/24 imports remains unchanged at 17.5 million mt from last month.
- Lastly, corn consumption is estimated to be unchanged for 2022/23 to remain at 290.51 million mt, while the 2023/24 consumption is forecast to increase by 2 million mt to reach 295 million mt for 2023/24, mainly due to an estimated increase in feed consumption.

Edible vegetable oils
- The estimates for vegoil production have increased for both 2022/23 and 2023/24 to reach 30.5 million mt and 30.25 million mt, respectively, compared with 30.09 million mt and 29.7 million mt for the two periods in August.
- The increases in its production are mainly because of the rise in estimated soybean imports, which could boost soybean oil output, according to Casde analysts.
- In addition, the stable harvesting of new season peanuts in China’s main peanut-producing areas including Henan and Shandong provinces and Inner Mongolia, coupled with better light temperature and normal precipitation in those areas, will be conducive to peanut harvesting and drying, they say.
- The estimates for imports of vegoil, meanwhile, remain unchanged for 2022/23 and 2023/24 at 8.63 million mt and 8.43 million mt, respectively.
- Estimates for vegoil consumption also remain unchanged for both periods to stand at 36.32 million mt and 36.61 million mt, separately.

Sep 13 - Hot, dry weather cuts into US soy harvest; corn production raised
The U.S. government cut its forecast for the soybean crop on Tuesday after hot and dry conditions during key growth stages but raised the corn harvest view due to expectations for large acreage harvested despite adverse weather this summer. The cut to the soybean harvest outlook will help push domestic supplies to their lowest in eight years even as surging demand for biofuel boosts the amount of soybeans required by the crush industry.  

Sep 13 - Brazil's soy exports to reach nearly 100 million tons in 2023
Brazil's soybean exports should reach 99 million metric tons in 2023, up by 500,000 from a month ago, oilseed group Abiove said on Tuesday, as the country counts on solid demand from China and a record harvest this year. Abiove's estimate for soybean output from the world's largest producer and exporter of the oilseed was raised by 300,000 tons to a record 157.3 million tons.

Sep 12 - Argentina's domestic soybean sales soar after federal currency boost
Soybean sales in Argentina totaled almost one million metric tons in the last seven days, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Monday, as farmers take advantage of a federal price-boosting initiative. The figure is well above the nearly 240,000 tons of soybeans sold over the last week of August across the South American country, which is one of the world's largest exporters of processed soy oil and meal. 

Sep 12 - Russian wheat export prices dip, deal reported below AgMin "floor"
Russian wheat export prices inched lower last week, tracking global benchmarks, as analysts continue to raise crop and export forecasts for this season. The price of 12.5%-protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board delivery in October was $240 per metric ton last week, down from $245 a ton week earlier, the IKAR agriculture consultancy reported.

Sep 11 - Russia to return to grain deal once all Moscow's conditions met, Lavrov says
Russia will return to the Black Sea grain deal 'the same day' as Moscow's conditions for export of its own grain and fertilisers to the global markets are met, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters on Sunday. Russia quit the deal in July, a year after it was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, complaining that its own food and fertiliser exports faced obstacles and that insufficient Ukrainian grain was going to countries in need. 

Sep 11 - Philippine ministers propose cut in rice tariffs to curb retail prices
The Philippines' finance ministry has recommended a series of measures, including a cut in tariffs on imported rice, to curb surging retail prices that are fuelling inflation, its secretary said. The ministries of finance and economic planning are proposing a reduction in the 35% rice import tariff rates to between zero and 10%, Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno told reporters.

Sep 08 - Australia 2023/24 wheat forecast down 36% y/y ( IHSmarkit - Abares )

- Australia’s wheat forecast is down 36% y/y to 25.4 million metric tons
- Wheat exports forecasted down 40% y/y to 18.8 million metric tons
- The decrease in expected production and exports is due to unfavorable weather conditions

Australia’s wheat production for 2023/24 is forecast at 25.4 million metric tons, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), a significant decrease in yield with dry conditions across key cropping regions.
 
This forecast is a 36% y/y decrease from the 2022/23 estimate of 39.7 million metric tons and 4% below the 10-year average. This drop has been primarily attributed to hot and dry conditions in Queensland, northern South Wales, and parts of Western Australia.

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology’s latest three-month rainfall outlook showed that rainfall will be below average in cropping regions across Australia between September and November, further deteriorating crop yield prospects across the country.

ABARES’ 2023/24 wheat export forecast is also down 40% y/y, 18.7 million metric tons compared to the 2022/23 estimate of 31.5 million metric tons.

Global grains prices have fallen in the past months, with increased global supply stemming from the Black Sea Grain Initiative. However, since its expiration, global grain prices have started increasing. Furthermore, Canada and the EU – both key grain exporters - have been experiencing serious drought that have reduced crop output. This, in addition to the decrease of expected production and exports from Australia, is likely to put further upward pressure on global wheat prices.

Sep 08 - China's August soybean imports soar 31% on year ( IHSmarkit )

- Brazilian oilseeds comprise bulk of the shipments
- Platts SOYBEX FOB Santos at $553.48 per metric ton
- September imports likely to be higher on year

China imported 9.36 million metric tons of soybeans in August, up 31% on the year, customs data showed Sept. 7, signaling robust demand for the oilseed. According to the customs data, Chinese demand for soybeans has soared in 2023, with the country importing 71.65 million metric tons through August, up 18% higher on the year. Despite the Chinese government’s efforts to reduce soybeans imports by substituting with cheaper alternatives for the animal feed, it seems that protein-rich yellow oilseed will remain the core of the country’s animal feed sector, market analysts said. The world’s top soybean purchaser, China has been buying cheaper yellow oilseed from Brazil, which were very price-competitive as late as June.

However, the basis prices of Brazilian and the US-origin soybeans have converged since August, just before the beginning of harvest season in North America in September. As a result, the US soybeans have regained their price competitiveness since mid-July, which has attracted a lot of buying interests from China-based crushers, analysts said. Platts, a part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed SOYBEX FOB Santos for October deliveries at $553.48 per metric ton Sept. 6 and SOYBEX FOB New Orleans at $546.10/t.

Soybean demand looking robust
- China’s soybean imports in September are likely to be higher on the year amid stable demand from animal breeders, China-based traders said.
- China typically processes over 80% of imported beans into protein-rich animal feed, catering to the country’s enormous pork sector. Hence, a rise in China’s hog population is seen as a direct boost for the country’s soybean import demand.

According to the latest data from Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, China’s hog inventories soared 1.1% on the year to 435.17 million heads in the first half of the year.

However, China’s soybean demand in the last quarter of the year, starting in October, is forecast to slacken amid expected poor hog margins, market analysts said.

Sep 08 - UN working on guarantees for Russia to restore grain deal but Moscow skeptical
The United Nations is "actively engaged" in trying to improve Russia's grain and fertilizer exports in a bid to convince Moscow to again allow the safe Black Sea export of Ukraine grain, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Thursday. "We believe that it's necessary to create a system of mutual guarantee," Guterres told reporters on the sidelines of the Association of South East Asian Nations summit in Jakarta.  

Sep 08 - Argentina 2023/24 grains crops forecast above previous season as El Nino brings rains
Argentina's grains production for 2023/24 is expected to be higher than the previous season as the El Nino weather phenomenon is expected to bring rain to the area, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday. The country's 2023/2024 soybean crop is estimated at 50 million metric tons, the highest level of the last five yearsand up from the 21 million tons produced in the previous season.

Sep 07 - Heat, drought spur early corn harvest in US corn belt
Corn harvesting in parts of the western U.S. Midwest is starting sooner than normal after a recent stretch of hot, dry weather sped the crop to maturity, analysts and agronomists said on Wednesday. The crop's rapid finish may lower crop quality or reduce grain yields in the main growing areas because more weather-shrunken kernels are needed to fill each bushel, they said. 

Sep 07 - Brazil's Conab raises grain crop projection on bumper corn, soybean production
Brazilian farmers will reap almost 323 million metric tons of grains in the 2022/23 season, Brazil's food supply agency Conab said on Wednesday, reflecting expected rises in the production of corn and soybeans in the season that is drawing to a close. Brazil's total corn production is projected to be a record 131.8 million tons, driven by an abundant second corn crop, which farmers have nearly finished harvesting, according to the agency.

Sep 06 - More rain may delay crops in top Chinese corn, soy region - weather bureau
Heavy rain in northeastern China's Heilongjiang province this month could delay grain ripening and harvesting, the country's weather bureau said on Tuesday, after flooding in August also hurt the area's crops. Precipitation in eastern part Heilongjiang is expected to be 20% to 50% higher than normal in September, the China Meteorological Administration said at a monthly briefing.  

Sep 06 - Turkey's Erdogan says to discuss grain deal with UN's Guterres this month
President Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey is in close contact with the United Nations on reviving the Black Sea grain initiative and he will discuss it with Secretary-General Antonio Guterres at its general assembly this month, Turkish media reported. Speaking to reporters after talks in Russia with Vladimir Putin, Erdogan was quoted as saying the latest U.N. proposal sought to address some Russian demands, and he repeated he believed a solution could be found soon.

Sep 05 - Argentina makes soy dollar 4 official, producers disapprove (AgriCensus)

- Argentina’s government published a decree Tuesday formally announcing its fourth soy dollar scheme in a year, but only after the government denied a preferential exchange rate program would be implemented last Friday. The new program will be valid until September 30 and is different from the previous editions of the soy dollar, when the government established an exchange rate for buying soybeans.

- This one stipulates that crushers can use 25% of their export proceeds in foreign exchange freely, which means using the so-called financial dollar (contado con liquidación, in Spanish) currently worth 754,27 pesos per dollar, or the MEP dollar (Mercado eletrônico de pagos), currently quoted at 680.35 pesos per dollar.  The remaining 75% would be exchanged at the official rate of 350 pesos per dollar, leaving an average of 455 pesos per dollar rate in today’s exchange rate.

- The government plans to generate revenues of $2.5 billion by the end of this month. Tuesday's announcement means essentially that the government has returned to it's original version of the scheme, which was announced by minister and presidential candidate Sergio Massa on August 29. Last Friday, however, Massa said it would not be a preferential exchange program but an incentive for soybean imports, for which crushers would be allowed to use 25% of their export proceeds to import beans directly without needing to convert it through the official exchange rate.

- The decree does not say if purchases must be made in the domestic market or through imports. According to data from Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCR), 7 million mt of soybeans from the 2022/23 crop are available to be traded, while a further 3.9 million mt of soybeans have already been sold with prices yet to be fixed. The decree also obliges exporters who adhere to the program to exchange the dollars during September but gives them until September 2024 to register the exports, while at the same time obliging them to pay 50% of the export duties in advance.
“Given that the mechanism is new, we will have to wait and see how both exporters and farmers react to the new scheme,” analyst Javier Preciado Patiño told Agricensus.

The measure was not well received by Argentinian producers.

Sep 05 - Turkey's Erdogan says Black Sea grain deal can be restored soon
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said after talks with Russia's Vladimir Putin on Monday that it would soon be possible to revive the grain deal that the United Nations says helped to ease a food crisis by getting Ukrainian grain to market. Russia quit the deal in July - a year after it was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey - complaining that its own food and fertiliser exports faced serious obstacles.

Sep 05 - Rains relieve Argentina's drought-hit agricultural heartland, especially wheat
Recent rainfall over Argentina's agricultural heartland has brought significant relief to the wheat crop in particular, raising hopes for a good season after continued harsh droughts which caused huge losses in the 2022/23 season, the Rosario grains Exchange said Monday. A large part of the region received between 30 mm and 100 millimeters of rain, Cristian Russo, head of the BCR's Strategic Guide for Agriculture, said in a statement.

Sep 05 - Egypt's GASC made no purchase in direct talks about buying wheat - traders
Egypt's state grains buyer GASC is believed to have no purchase in direct talks with trading houses on Monday about buying wheat without issuing an international tender, traders said. GASC had bought around 480,000 metric tons of Russian wheat and one cargo of Bulgarian wheat in private talks last week without issuing international tenders, traders said.

Sep 04 - EU pig price sinks to six-month low (IHSmarkit)

- European pig prices have fallen to their lowest level since March as the bearish tone which has now been evident for several weeks has reinforced itself.
In the week ending 27 August, the EU average price for Class E pigs was €232.66 ($xxx) per 100kg, down by 1.8% on the previous week, and 6.5% lower than the price at the end of July.

Prices are heading downwards in all of the major producer countries.
- In Poland, the price fell by 3.3%, capping a decline of 16.5% over the past two months.
- Denmark has registered a price decline of 1.3% - the first meaningful shift in the official Danish price for more than three months.
- The average price fell week-on-week by 2.1% in both Belgium, the Netherlands and France, by 1.5% in Germany, and by 0.7% in Spain.

Purchasers are reported to be buying with a very short horizon in the expectation of continuing lower prices, and sellers have been unable to keep prices up. This is despite continuing concerns about levels of throughput which remain well below the levels of previous years.

Sep 04 - European whey prices hit five-year low
(IHSmarkit)

- Whey demand remains lower and coupled with strong cheese production the price in the EU and US is low. In the week ending August 27, the EU Commission whey price fell a further 2.7% to €640/metric ton ($689.44/t). This puts the price at its lowest level since February 2018.

- Lower demand is also dampening whole and skimmed milk powders. The WMP price fell 1.8% to €3,301/t. The SMP price remained relatively stable w/w at €2,274/t. The WMP price is 1% above its 5-year average, while the SMP price is at a 6% discount.

The milk powder market continues to be calm, with European products uncompetitive on the global market.

Sep 04 - Australia set for lower wheat output as El Nino curbs yields
Australia is likely to lower its wheat production forecast for 2023/24 by about a million metric tons as dry El Nino weather reduces yields, traders and analysts said, tightening global supplies hit by poor harvests in rival exporters. The world's second largest exporter of the grain, Australia is a key supplier to top buyers such as China, Indonesia and Japan, but a strengthening of the El Nino weather event suggests more dry weather in store after the warmest winter on record.  

Sep 04 - 'A bit extreme': Indonesian rice prices surge as drought crimps harvest
Some rice plants with empty husks stand among the crop on Indonesian farmer Akma Rangga's fields in West Java, which has received barely any rain since April, and must rely on irrigation channels that have nearly dried out. "We don't know what's going to happen in the next month or two," said Akma, 50, who worries that he may have to delay the next planting cycle if his plot gets no rain by October, amid Indonesia's driest weather in four years.

Sep 01 - South Korea’s NOFI buys estimated 135,000 T corn in tender
Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. has bought an estimated 135,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender for up to 138,000 tons on Thursday, European traders said. It was expected to be sourced from either South America or South Africa. 

Sep 01 - Algeria said to buy durum wheat in tender – traders
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased durum wheat in an international tender which closed on Thursday, European traders said. Initial volumes were estimated at between 550,000 to 600,000 metric tons.

Sep 01 - Philippines curbs rice prices as inflation worry mounts
The Philippines announced price ceilings for rice on Friday to protect consumers, as the rising cost of the national staple probably caused August inflation to accelerate for the first time in seven months. One of the world's biggest rice importers, the Southeast Asian nation is cracking down on domestic price manipulation at a time of rising pressure from events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India's export ban, and unpredictable oil prices. 

Sep 01 - UN chief sends Russia bid to revive Black Sea grain deal
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said on Thursday that he had sent Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov "a set of concrete proposals" aimed at reviving a deal that allowed the safe export of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea. Russia quit the deal in July - a year after it was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey - complaining that its own food and fertilizer exports faced obstacles and that not enough Ukrainian grain was going to countries in need.

Aug 31 - Turkish buyers renew interest in Ukrainian wheat as freight drops (AgriCensus)

- Turkish importers have renewed their interest in Ukrainian wheat amid lower freight rates from Danube shallow water ports, market sources told Agricensus. The price of Ukrainian feed wheat on a CIF Marmara basis has become more competitive after freight rates dropped from $49/mt to $40-43/mt, while a continued increase in freight rates from Russian Azov ports made Russian origin less attractive.

The rate from Russian Azov ports to Marmara has hit $57-58/mt, up from $51-52/mt last week. However, this revived interest is only true of low-protein wheat, as when it comes to wheat with an 11.5% to 13.5% protein content, Turkish buyers still prefer Russian origin.

- The latest trade in Ukrainian 10.5% wheat on a CIF Marmara basis was heard at $218/mt, while Russian-origin 10.5% wheat was offered at $225-228/mt on the same basis.
"People prefer Russian origin, but the Kerch Strait problem can push buyers to start looking for Ukrainian origin," a Turkish-based trader said.

- Currently, vessels have to wait 5-10 days to pass the Kerch Strait, which is among the reasons for the continued freight price increase in the region.
"Ukrainian 10,5-11,5% wheat is priced better, however for higher protein, Russian wheat is preferable," another trader told Agricensus.

- So far, not everyone sees Ukrainian wheat as more attractive, however, and some would like to see Ukrainian milling wheat offered at a more competitive price compared with Russian origin.
"We finally see Ukrainian milling wheat offers but [they are] not cheaper than Russian," a Turkish-based trader said.

- At the same time, Ukrainian sellers are still limited in how far they can lower their offer price levels, as even though there has been a slight weakening in the freight rates recently, ongoing delays in passing the Sulina Canal and strong flows in that direction have prevented them from falling more significantly.

Aug 31 - China snaps up Australian barley after tariffs lifted -traders
China has bought around 600,000 metric tons of Australian barley since Beijing lifted punishing duties on the grain earlier this month, traders said, underlining strong pent-up demand for the grain from its former top supplier. China ended anti-dumping tariffs on Australian barley on Aug. 5, roughly three years after the 80.5% duties first hit exports once worth up to A$1.5 billion annually. 

Aug 31 - Scant deliveries seen against CBOT Sept corn, soy futures; wheat, oats eyed
Deliveries against Chicago Board of Trade September corn and soy futures should be light on Thursday, the first notice day, traders and analysts said on Wednesday, but soft cash markets could spur moderate deliveries against wheat and oat futures. Traders predicted zero to 500 September corn deliveries, with most expecting none.

Aug 31 - First vessel of Australian barley loads for China, 1m mt sold so far (AgriCensus)

- The first vessel of Australian barley heading to China has been loaded after import restrictions were lifted on August 4, while the total amount sold is estimated to be up to 1 million mt, trade sources said. The vessel, called Majestic Island, sailed from CBH’s group terminal in Kwinana carrying barley for the first time in three years, according to local media.  It was loaded with an initial 49,262 mt of barley and is headed to another Australian port, Lincoln, to load an additional 10,738 mt, according to lineup data available. Although the vessel was loaded at the CBH terminal, the shipper of the grain was the Australian Grain Export (AGE), according to the data available.

- Meanwhile, trade sources said that overall some 700,000 to 1 million mt of old crop and new crop barley has been sold to China since the restrictions were lifted, which includes previously signed deals for optional origin.

- In 2020, China imposed an 80.5% import duty on Australian barley, effectively blocking imports from the country, but in April 2023 it agreed to review all its tariffs within three months, leading the Australian government to suspend a dispute it had lodged with the WTO over the duties. China also imposed an additional 3% import tax on Australian barley in 2020, putting this origin in the same position as all other origins from which China imports.

- However, with the elimination of the restrictions on August 4, 2023, the 3% import tax also was canceled, putting Australia once again in a more beneficial position. China is one of the world's leading barley importers, with annual imports of 7.2 million mt on a five-year average basis, and Australia's share was the biggest before the restrictions came into force.

Aug 30 - EU dairy commodity prices weakened during the latest week.(IHSmarkit)

The weakening was more moderate than the declines observed in Oceania.

The WMP price fell 1% to €3,361/t, which is a 31% y/y fall but remains a touch above the 5-year average. This is the price's lowest level since October 2021. Meanwhile, the SMP price fell 0.8% to €2,269/t and therefore remains just €3 above where it finished July.

Demand for milk powders is weak, with prices uncompetitive on the global market but a tight domestic supply/demand balance is giving sellers little incentive to discount the product they have on offer.

European whey price is unchanged on the week but the price is 38% lower y/y. This week the EU Commission whey price stood at €658/t.

Aug 30 - EU pig prices have continued to fall over the past week, as markets continue to adjust to weaker demand for pigmeat. (IHSmarkit)

Many member states saw abattoirs closed for a public holiday on 15 August, and this contributed to a further reduction in demand for livestock. Pigs were accordingly held over to the following week, placing further pressure on prices.

In the week ending 20 August, the EU average price for Class E pigs was €236.90 per 100kg, down by 1.9% on the previous week. This benchmark value has now fallen by more than 5% since hitting an all-time high in mid-July.

All major markets registered downturns, notably Poland (down by 3.4% week-on-week), France (-2.5%), Germany (-2.3%), and the Netherlands (-2.0%).

Only Denmark maintained a virtually unchanged price, for the twelfth week in a row. This reflects the Danish industry’s reliance on export trade and on longer-term supply contracts.

Aug 30 - Thai white rice prices resumed rising in the week to 24 August amid local covering for shipments to Indonesia. (IHSmarkit)

Platts Parboiled 100% STX rose by $11 week-on-week to $625 per metric ton FOB, while Thai 5% broken white rice ended up $13 w/w at $620 per metric ton FOB. Another bullish factor for prices was the tight supply of white rice. One trader said that “millers are holding stock,” making it difficult for some exporters to provide firm offers. Any white rice stocks available were used to cover shipments for Indonesia, which should leave by the year’s end.

In contrast, Hom Mali head rice prices ended the week lower amid quiet demand. Platts Hom Mali 100% Grade B was assessed at $909/t FOB FCL, down $10 from the previous week.

Meanwhile, the Fragrant broken rice market remained unchanged during the week with Platts Hom Mali A1 Super 100% broken rice ending at $519/t FOB FCL.

Thai rice exports totaled 604,310 metric tons in July, 5.6% more month-on-month and 4.5% year-on-year, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce. Total exports between January and July 2023 reached 4.64 million metric tons, up 13% y/y.

Aug 30 - Low Mississippi water levels raise red flags for US soybean, corn exporters (AgriCensus)

- Low water levels in the Mississippi waterway in the US are again raising red flags for the country’s Gulf export hub, a key source of soybean and corn exports, trade sources have told Agricensus. Water levels are near historical lows for August/September and weather models calling for dry conditions through the coming weeks are adding further concerns and feeding into barge premiums that have risen sharply since the end of last week.
“I suspect that freight is the driving factor [for rising barge premiums], with freight sellers perhaps nervous that water levels could continue to drop with the forecast for the first half of September remaining dry for most of the Midwest,” Grain Service Corporation’s vice president Diana Klemme told Agricensus.

- The situation in the Mississippi barge market has the potential to jeopardize US Gulf’s export competitiveness on an FOB and CFR basis as higher costs are passed downstream.
- Soybean FOB front-month premiums in the Gulf hub increased 17 c/bu between Wednesday and Monday while CFR China premiums for beans originated in the Gulf lifted 30 c/bu during the same period.
- Corn premiums also spiked in the Gulf with the FOB front-month basis up 17 c/bu between Wednesday and Monday.

The spike in barge premiums at the end of last week recalled disruptions linked to low water levels at the end of 2022 that brought significant headwinds to US exporters during the country’s main export window last year. Concerns around low Mississippi water levels coupled with disruptions linked to low water levels in the Panama Canal could also jeopardize export prospects from the US Gulf, with businesses potentially shifting to Brazil and to the US Pacific Northwest (PNW) hub.
“If barge freight gets high enough… it could definitely raise the cost of shipping corn and soybeans from the Gulf,” Advance Trading’s Larry Shonkwiler told Agricensus.

- Shonkwiler added that low water levels in the Panama Canal, where waiting times have increased to an average of 21 days, add to the mix and could hamper the US Gulf’s export competitiveness for both corn and beans.
“While one would think that Brazil more or less has a lock on Chinese and other Asian business this fall for corn and, to a lesser extent, beans, low water for both the Mississippi River and the Panama Canal could really shift export demand to the PNW,” Shonkwiler said.

Aug 30 - India allows exports of non-basmati white rice trapped at ports
India has allowed traders to ship out their non-basmati white rice cargoes sitting at ports due to a sudden ban on exports of the category, a government order said late on Tuesday. On July 20, India surprised buyers by banning exports of widely consumed non-basmati white rice to control rising domestic prices. The move followed a ban on broken rice exports last year. 

Aug 30 - From rice to palm oil, Asian crops output forecast lower as El Nino strengthens
An unusually dry August has taken a toll on cereal and oilseed crops in Asia as El Nino intensified, and forecasts for lower rainfall in September are further threatening to disrupt supplies. While wheat output forecasts are being revised lower due to dry weather in Australia, the world's second largest exporter, record-low monsoon rains are expected to reduce the volume of crops, including rice, in India, the world's biggest shipper of the grain, meteorologists and analysts said.

Aug 29 - Argentina announces fourth soy dollar scheme to boost sales (IHSmarkit)

- Argentina’s Economy Minister and candidate for presidency Sergio Massa announced on Sunday a new preferential exchange rate program to boost soybean sales and increase soybean crushing in the country. The new program allows crushers to buy 25% of beans using the financial dollar, a 785 pesos to the dollar exchange rate, while the remaining 75% will be traded at the official rate of 350 pesos per dollar, resulting in an average of 440-450 pesos to the dollar exchange rate. A decree detailing the timing of the new soy dollar and other measures is yet to be released, but some observers speculated it might be announced on Friday, September 1.

- Unlike the previous versions of the soy dollar, there is no goal for revenues or traded volumes so far.
“I think this is good news for the crushing industry, since liquidation is very low, at around 1 million mt per month, and there are 5 million mt with prices yet to be fixed,” analyst Javier Preciado Patiño told Agricensus.

- The goal is to boost crushing as soybean processing reached the lowest volume in the past 15 years in the first quarter of the 2023/24 crop year, with 11.9 million mt processed between April and July, the Rosario’s Exchange (BCR) said. Around 8-10 million mt of soybeans are available to be traded in Argentina, including the ones with prices yet to be fixed.
 “This will allow the industry to maintain its activity and benefit the producers who need to sell, while it's also positive for the government because it's generating an influx of foreign currency in the middle of an election campaign,” Preciado Patiño said.
"The question is how much soybeans would the producers be willing to sell with an exchange rate of around 450 pesos."

- The first soy dollar scheme was implemented in September 2022 with a 200 pesos per dollar exchange rate, the second one was launched in November 2022 at a 230 pesos exchange rate while the third soy dollar was implemented in April 2023 at 300 pesos per dollar.
- A corn dollar was implemented in July 2023 at a 350 pesos per dollar rate.

Aug 29 - Ukraine opposes further grain restrictions by neighbouring countries -minister
Ukraine strongly opposes the imposition of any restrictions on the import of its grain by neighbouring countries after a European Union ban ends on Sept. 15, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Monday. After the Russian invasion blocked Ukraine's Black Sea ports, large quantities of the country's grain - which is cheaper than EU crops - stayed in Central Europe due to logistical bottlenecks, hitting prices and sales for local farmers. 

Aug 29 - Smaller German 2023 grain harvest expected after poor weather
Germany’s grain harvest will fall after suffering from unfavourable weather swinging from drought to rain which fell on crops just before they were gathered, the agriculture ministry estimated on Monday. But overall harvest volumes were satisfactory, the ministry said.

Aug 28 - India sets floor price for basmati rice after restricting non-basmati
India has imposed a $1,200 per ton minimum export price (MEP) on basmati rice shipments, the government said on Sunday, as the world's biggest exporter tries to calm local prices ahead of key state elections. The south Asian country in July banned exports of non-basmati white rice and on Friday imposed 20% duty on the exports of parboiled rice. 

Aug 28 - Second vessel leaves Odesa through temporary Black Sea corridor: Minister
A vessel carrying steel products to Africa has left Ukraine's Odesa port through a temporary Black Sea corridor, the second ship to do so since Russia withdrew last month from a U.N.-brokered deal that allowed for grain to be safely exported, a senior Ukrainian government official said on Sunday. Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said the Liberian-flagged ship PRIMUS had begun sailing through a temporary corridor set up for civilian vessels, confirming a report on Saturday by a Ukrainian lawmaker.

Aug 25 - VEU’s eastern "frontier" states seek longer ban on Ukraine imports (AgriCensus)

- The agriculture ministers of the five "frontier" European Union states of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria have agreed on a common position in favor of extending a ban on grain imports from Ukraine until the end of this year after a meeting Friday, a statement from the Polish government has said.

- Transit of grains through these states is still allowed, and the five ministers also agreed that the EU should launch subsidies for grain transiting from Ukraine.

In May, the European Commission agreed to implement a ban on Ukrainian imports of wheat, corn, rapeseed, and sunflower into Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia until September 15. While the five states have pushed for longer, the most recent decision of the Commission, on July 25, was that the bloc would await the result of the current harvest before further decisions, while the next EU informal meeting of agriculture ministers will be from September 3 to 5. The majority of other EU member states are understood to be against extending the ban.

- The five ministers further agreed to a joint demand that the European Commission direct funds to build infrastructure to help Ukraine transport grain, and suggested the list of Ukrainian products that cannot enter their markets should be “flexible.”

- The Polish Minister Robert Telus also presented data which showed that 9 million mt of grain has been exported from Poland since January. This may ease some fears about overly high Polish stocks after a backlog from last year’s harvest.

Aug 25 - EU 2023-24 soybean oil imports more than double on year (IHSmarkit)

- Brazil's share of soybean meal imports at 68 %
- Spain leading soybean oil buyer in bloc
- The Netherlands emergs as the main buyer of raw soybean and meal derivatives

The EU’s soybean oil imports in marketing year 2023-24 (July-June) soared to 115,524 metric tons as of Aug. 20, up from 51,873 metric tons during the same week a year earlier, European Commission data showed Aug. 22.

The bloc's sunflower oil purchases increased 24% to 290,535 metric tons over the same period. According to market sources, the surge in soybean and sunflower oil purchases by the bloc was led primarily by a slump in the supply of palm as the EU tries to phase out purchase of the commodity over environmental concerns.

The region’s rapeseed oil purchases remained unchanged on the year at 53,051 metric tons. Palm oil imports declined by 21% to 434,810 metric tons, the data showed.

The EU’s soybean purchases decreased slightly on the year to 1.76 million metric tons as of Aug. 20 in MY 2023-24 (July-June), while soybean meal imports declined by 7% to 1.95 million metric tons.

Spain replaced Poland as the largest soybean oil buyer in the bloc in the most recent reporting week, while the Netherlands emerged as the leading buyer of raw soybean and meal derivatives, the data showed.

The share of Brazilian-origin products in the EU’s raw soybean imports stood at 59.5%, while its contribution of soybean meal stood at 68.8% in the most recent reporting week.

The EU is the world’s top soybean meal importer and the second-biggest buyer of soybeans.

Aug 25 - Hungary wants EU to extend Ukrainian grains import ban beyond Sept 15
Hungary wants the EU's ban on domestic sales of Ukrainian grain to be extended in the five EU member states bordering Ukraine after the current measure ends on Sept. 15, Prime Minister Viktor Orban's chief of staff told a briefing on Thursday. "Hungary will ask the EU to extend the ban from September 16," Gergely Gulyas said, adding Hungary was ready to reimpose a national import ban if the EU does not extend the measure.

Aug 25 - India will decide on sugar exports after assessing cane availability
India will decide on sugar exports for the 2023/24 season once firm estimates of total sugar cane production become available, the government said on Thursday. "Government's priority is to ensure sufficient availability of sugar for consumption, ethanol production and maintaining closing stocks of 6 million tonnes for 2023/24 season," the Department of Food and Public Distribution said in a statement. 

Aug 25 - China says GMO soy, corn trials show 'outstanding' results
China's farm ministry on Thursday said large trials of genetically modified corn and soybeans showed "outstanding" results and that the technology was safe and essential. China has not yet approved commercial planting of GMO corn and soybeans, but has been studying the crops for years, and this year significantly expanded the acreage of its pilot programme.

Aug 24 - India set to ban sugar exports for first time in 7 years
India is expected to ban mills from exporting sugar in the next season beginning October, halting shipments for the first time in seven years, as a lack of rain has cut cane yields, three government sources said. India's absence from the world market would be likely to increase benchmark prices in New York and London that are already trading around multi-year highs, triggering fears of further inflation on global food markets. 

Aug 24 - Argentina grains exchange sees dry start to 2023/24 corn season
Argentina's farmlands planted with corn should reach an estimated 7.3 million hectares for the 2023/24 cycle, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said in a pre-season report on Wednesday, though dry conditions could delay the crop's sowing. Farmers are expected to start planting corn in September. The projected planting area would be 2.8% times larger than the area planted in the previous campaign, which was hit hard by a historic drought across Argentina's agricultural heartlands. 

Aug 23 - Chinese soy buyers see imports peaking at 100 mln tns for coming yearsChinese soybean buyers attending a large U.S. soy export conference believe imports for 2023 will be a bit larger than some projections, but they don't see import volumes growing much more in the coming years. Sun Lige, vice-president of China's Wellhope Foods Company Ltd, said on the sidelines of Soy Connext conference that the Asian country will probably import 100 million metric tons of soybeans in 2023, more than the 98 million tons projected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 

Aug 23 - New technology to boost US crops in coming seasons; labor shortage a challenge, farmers say
U.S. farmers see the flow of new technologies coming to farms boosting production in coming years, but worry about labor availability, according to comments by participants at a soybean conference on Tuesday. Farmers said technological developments, including new soy and corn seeds and equipment to sample soil, will drive higher agricultural yields in coming seasons as they allow for a better understanding of what is needed to boost output.

Aug 22 - Egypt's GASC books 60k mt Romanian wheat at $270.25/mt CFR (AgriCensus)

- Egypt's General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) has closed a tender issued earlier Tuesday and awarded it to Agro Chirnogi, one of Romania’s leading wheat exporters, an official note said Tuesday. GASC paid $256/mt FOB Constanta and $270.25/mt CFR Egypt, given $14.25/mt freight rate, for 60,000 mt of Romanian-origin wheat.

- The wheat was sold for October 5-20 loading, with payment to be made at sight and sponsored by the Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC). According to lineups seen by Agricensus, GASC received a total of 32 offers from various global suppliers in the range of $265-269.80/mt FOB for Romanian and Bulgarian wheat, $266.82-296.60/mt FOB for French grains and $270-280/mt FOB Russian ports.

- In its latest tender that closed August 8, GASC booked 235,000 mt of Russian wheat paying on average $262.76/mt FOB and $278.33/mt CFR.

Aug 22 - US spring wheat, corn ratings fall unexpectedly; soybean ratings flat
The condition of the U.S. spring wheat crop dropped in the latest week, the government said on Monday, as forecasts for hot and dry weather continued in the northern Plains this week. The stress on the high-protein spring wheat crop could add to concerns about production shortfalls in key growing areas such as Canada and the European Union. 

Aug 22 - Mexico says it won't modify decree on GM corn ahead of USMCA panel
Mexico won't make any further changes to a decree on genetically modified (GM) corn ahead of a dispute settlement panel requested by the United States through the USMCA trade pact, Mexican economy minister, Raquel Buenrostro, told Reuters on Monday. Buenrostro's comments come after the United States last week escalated its objections to the restrictions imposed by Mexico on imports of GM corn and requested a dispute settlement panel under the North American trade pact, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

Aug 21 - 'Watch out pasta lovers' as drought slashes Canada durum output (AgriCensus)

- The mounting drought conditions in Canadian provinces of Saskatchewan and Alberta is expected to severely hamper durum wheat production in the country and should lead the government to trim production forecasts, market participants have told Agricensus Monday.
"Watch out pasta lovers; what appeared this spring [to be] a planted acreage capable of supporting maybe 5.5 million mt of production, has deteriorated significantly," said Mike Jubinville, a senior market analyst at MarketsFarm.
"In July, we were forecasting a durum crop of 4.1 million mt, but are currently in the process of trimming that number to below 4 million mt, maybe in the 3.7 to 3.9 million mt area," Jubinville said.
"The trade is likely thinking Canada's crop size is 4-4.5 million metric tons," another Canadian analyst said.

- While durum wheat is more drought resistant than other wheat varieties, crop conditions are suffering in prime growing areas in southwestern Saskatchewan and southern Alberta, which have been experiencing unusually hot and dry weather since May.
"There’s been some light showers in southwest Saskatchewan and southern Alberta over the past week, but that is far too late to help - in fact, it hurts as harvest is well underway," Jubinville said.
"There is potential for quality downgrades with the recent rains on any crop still standing," Jubinville added.

- The Canadian government pegged the 2023/24 durum harvest at 5.695 million mt, up from the prior crop year's 5.443 million mt, in a July 21 report.  During the severe 2021 drought, the country harvested 3.03 million mt, according to government data. Statistics Canada will release its first crop estimates on August 29.

- The price of Canadian durum has surged because of concerns about the crop, leaving 14.5% FOB Vancouver cargoes at $500/mt, up 43% from $350/mt in late June, while St Lawrence cargoes are $510/mt, up 42% from $360 in late June.

- Canada is the world’s biggest durum producer and exporter, with Saskatchewan responsible for 77% of Canada’s durum production in 2022 while Alberta was responsible for the vast majority of the remainder.

Aug 21 - India faces record low August rains, threatening summer crops
India is heading for its driest August in more than a century, with scant rainfall likely to persist across large areas, partly because of the El Niño weather pattern, two weather department officials told Reuters on Friday. August rainfall, expected to be the lowest since records began in 1901, could dent yields of summer-sown crops, from rice to soybeans, boosting prices and overall food inflation, which jumped in July to the highest since January 2020. 

Aug 21 - Funds sell CBOT corn, soy and wheat as supply fears wane -Braun
Speculators have ramped up their comfort with global corn supplies this month, though U.S. crop uncertainties continue lingering as the Corn Belt will be gripped by hot and dry weather this week, possibly impacting yield. In the week ended Aug. 15, money managers increased their net short in CBOT corn futures and options to 72,580 contracts from 26,656 a week earlier and a net long of 16,741 two weeks earlier.

Aug 18 - DairyNZ says New Zealand milk prices are below the break-even point (IHSmarkit)

- DairyNZ forecasts a national break-even price of $7.51 per kg/MS for this season, down from $8.16/kg MS
- Milk prices are forecast as between $7 and $7.34

DairyNZ has warned that some New Zealand farmers will not break even this season as they grapple with a falling milk price and continued high on-farm costs. DairyNZ describes this season’s reduced income as causing real concern on many farms.

DairyNZ forecasts a national breakeven of $7.51 per kg/MS for this season, down from $8.16/kg MS. The revision has been made to reflect the changes farmers have made.
“The updated breakeven milk price reflects that farmers are working really hard to reduce their spending in the face of extremely high costs. We know farmers are looking at budgets line-by-line and analysing where spending can be reduced, including pausing non-essential capital expenditure and carefully evaluating feed, fertiliser and other spending,” explains Mark Storey, Dairy NZ Head of Economics.

Despite lowering the breakeven milk price, it remains above the DairyNZ forecast milk price which currently stands at $7.34/kg MS. The Fonterra forecast milk price has a midpoint of $7/kg MS. The breakeven milk price is higher than both of these forecasts. This does mean a number of farms are likely to make a loss this season which will affect business viability.
Storey goes on to say: “This will also have significant flow-on effects to New Zealand’s regional and national economy.”

The outlook does not point towards improvement. “Given the further drop in the Global Dairy Trade this week we are looking at 12-18 months of reduced income, so it is important to consider changes carefully,” says DairyNZ general manager of farm performance, Sarah Speight.

Aug 18 - Dairy Price Update: EU product uncompetitive on the global market (IHSmarkit)

- The EU Commission WMP price has fallen 3.9% over the past month, while the GDT WMP price has lost 17.8%
- The EU butter price is at €4,538/t while the GDT price is equivalent to around €4,176/t
- Milk powder demand is muted, while internal butter and cheese demand is stable

This week European dairy markets drifted lower, butter demand is stable while milk powder demand is muted. The whey market continues to be described as inconsistent. European product is lacking competitiveness on the global market.

The European WMP price remains uncompetitive on the global market with the price differential only increasing. In the week ended 13 Aug the EU Commission WMP price stood at €3,392/metric ton, a 0.6% w/w decline. Compared to a month ago this is a 3.9% decrease. Meanwhile, WMP at the GDT has lost 17.8% over the past month and in euro terms stands at around €2,344/t.

The recent downward trend in prices has not spurred any additional demand, most likely because of the lack of competitiveness on the global market. Demand within Europe is quiet with much of the market still on summer breaks. As raw milk supply tightens over the summer, processors are only really making WMP to order rather than to lay down stocks.

SMP is plagued by the same challenges as the WMP market. The price lost 1.3% this week to €2,275/t.

The EU whey price fell 2.0% to €663/t, which is 41% below year-ago levels and 21% below the 5-year average. Overall the market remains quiet and inconsistent. There has been some pickup in animal feed demand but not by enough to give the market a clear direction. As with other products, Europe remains uncompetitive on the international market.

The EU Commission butter price fell 1.0% to €4,538/t which is a similar level to a month ago. Compared to a year ago the price is down by 37% and is 4% below the 5-year average. Demand is somewhat mixed with retail demand robust but demand for block butter is subdued. However, inventories are being pulled and reduced. Processors are running active churning schedules and the subdued block butter demand is being met by limited block butter supply. Production is not able to keep ahead of demand owing to lighter summer milk as fat levels have fallen. The EU is marginally more competitive in the butter market than in other markets. While European butter is more expensive, the difference is smaller than in other dairy commodities. At this week, GDT the butter price was equivalent to around €4,176/t.

Cheese prices were relatively flat this week. The Edam price was at €4,055/t while the gouda price stood at €4,178/t. The cheddar price remained steady at €3,581/t. The Emmental price was alone in moving, gaining 1.5% to €6,178/t. Again European cheese is at a significant premium on the global market, with cheddar at the GDT this week standing at around €3,797/t in euro terms.

Aug 18 - IGC boosts forecast for 2023/24 world corn crop
The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday raised its forecast for 2023/24 global corn production, with an improved outlook for Ukraine's crop only partially offset by a downward revision for China. The inter-governmental body, in a monthly report, put global corn production at 1.221 billion metric tons, up from a previous forecast of 1.220 billion and the prior season's 1.160 billion.

Aug 18 - El Nino could delay rains in Argentina until October, hitting corn and wheat

Heavy rainfall linked to the weather phenomenon known as El Nino likely will kick off in Argentina in October, experts said on Thursday, which could affect the corn planting season in some parts of the country. Water is needed in many main corn growing areas where soil moisture levels are low, following a crippling drought that curtailed agricultural production during the 2022/23 season.

Aug 18 - India considers wheat imports from Russia at discount to calm prices - sources
India is in talks with Russia to import wheat at a discount to surging global prices in a rare move to boost supplies and curb food inflation ahead of state and national elections next year, according to four sources. The imports would allow New Delhi to intervene more effectively in the market to drive down wheat prices that stoked inflation to a 15-month high in July.

Aug 18 - Ukraine's August grain exports via Danube at 820,000 T so far
- analyst
Ukraine in the first half of August exported 820,000 metric tons of grain via its ports on the Danube River, which is currently its main export route, the APK-Inform consultancy said late on Wednesday. APK-Inform gave no comparative figures.

Aug 17 - Vietnamese exporters renegotiate higher rice prices after Indian ban - traders
Vietnamese exporters have renegotiated higher prices for around half a million metric tons of rice, two trade sources said, as global prices climbed to 15-year highs following India's ban on overseas sales last month. This is the first confirmation of rice prices climbing in the wake of India's surprise ban, with importers paying more for one of the world's most widely consumed staples amid tightening supplies.

Aug 17 - Russian attack damages grain silos at Ukraine's Danube port of Reni – Kyiv
Russian drone strikes damaged grain silos and warehouses at the Ukrainian river port of Reni on the Danube, a vital wartime route for Ukrainian food exports, senior officials said on Wednesday. Russian strikes on port infrastructure on the Danube in recent weeks have piled pressure on Ukrainian food exports after Moscow quit a year-old deal that had allowed Kyiv to ship out grain via the Black Sea.

Aug 17 - US says working to identify alternative paths for Ukraine grain exports

The United States on Wednesday condemned Russia's continued attacks on Ukraine's grain infrastructure and said it was working with partners to identify alternative options to ensure Ukrainian grain exports. "The United States ... calls for Russia to immediately return to the Black Sea Grain Initiative," State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel said in a briefing, referring to a pact that had allowed export of Ukraine grain by the Black Sea. Russia quit the deal on July 17.

Aug 16 - Argentina backtracks on temporary beef export ban (IHSmarkit)

- Agriculture Secretary denies ban and says government is instead negotiating prices of beef for the domestic market
- Argentine beef exports generate US$1.4 billion in first half of 2023
- Government wrestling with runaway inflation and currency weakness

Argentina has rolled back on plans to suspend beef exports for 15 days, opting instead to pursue a new price accord with industry representatives. Reports early on Tuesday (15 August) quoted Argentine customs officials as saying exports would be temporarily suspended in a bid to ensure supplies of affordable beef to the domestic market.

This was subsequently refuted by Agriculture Secretary Juan Jose Bahillo, who said the government is instead ‘negotiating prices for meat for the internal market’, adding that ‘there is no suspension of meat exports’.

Argentine governments have a long history of intervening in markets for beef – a product that traditionally has a central place in the diet of local consumers. For a country with serious economic difficulties, beef is also an important source of foreign exchange – generating around US$1.4 billion in the first half of this year. While exports are important to the industry however, the government is prioritizing efforts to contain inflation, which is currently among the highest in the world.

Argentina devalued the currency by nearly 18% on Monday while the benchmark interest rate was hiked to 118% after a surprise result in a primary vote. The central bank also tightened controls on access to the parallel currency market.

Miguel Schiariti, head of Argentine beef industry group Ciccra recently called on the government to let the currency float freely, arguing that the global competitiveness of Argentine beef is harmed by efforts to artificially prop up the peso.

Aug 16 - Philippines recommends 500,000 MT rice imports to cover El Nino-related crop losses
The Philippines' Department of Agriculture is recommending additional rice importation of about 500,000 metric tons to cover potential crop losses from the El Nino dry weather condition, a senior official said on Wednesday. The additional importation by one of the world's biggest buyers of the staple grain, which should be brought in by private traders, must arrive between November and January next year, agriculture undersecretary Mercedita Sombilla told a congressional hearing. 

Aug 16 - Have US corn, soy yields already marked their lows for 2023? -Braun
Recent improvements in weather had market participants thinking the U.S. government’s latest corn and soybean yield outlooks were likely too conservative, a significant shift in attitude considering earlier comparisons with the 2012 drought. The trend is somewhat mixed as to whether the survey-based August yields are ultimately too high or low, but widespread precipitation across the Corn Belt so far this month could offer clues as to where these yields are headed next month.

Aug 15 - India’s vegetable oil imports to set new record in 2022-23, July imports up 46% (IHSmarkit)

    Imports may cross 15 mil-15.5 million metric tons in MY 2022-23
    Palm oil imports cross 1 million metric tons mark in July
    Platts assessed CPO CFR WC India at $899 per metric ton on Aug 14

- India’s vegetable oil imports in July rose 46% year on year to 1.77 million metric tons, driven by surging palm oil and sunflower oil purchases, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India said Aug. 14. Judging from the frenetic pace of imports in the first three quarters of the 2022-23 marketing year (November-October), India’s vegetable oil imports may cross 15 million metric tons-15.5 million metric tons, the trade body said -- a record high for the world’s largest buyer of vegetable oil.

- Over November-July of MY 2022-23, total vegetable oil imports rose to 12.25 million metric tons, up 23% year on year, the SEA said. Previously, India’s highest annual import number was 15.1 million metric tons in MY 2016-17.

- Palm oil imports in July crossed the 1 million metric tons mark, reaching 1.09 million metric tons, up 59% from the previous month and almost double the 530,420 metric tons imported in July 2022, SEA data showed. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed crude palm oil CFR West Coast India at $899 per metric ton on Aug. 14, down 5% from the start of the month.

- Soybean oil purchases by India in July were down 21.79% month on month at 342,670 metric tons from 437,658 metric tons in June and 519,566 metric tons in July 2022, according to SEA data.
- Sunflower oil imports in July surged by 71.53% month on month to 327,295 metric tons, according to SEA data. Sunflower oil purchases in July 2022 totaled 155,300 metric tons.

- In terms of origins, Indonesia is currently the largest supplier of vegetable oils to India, sending 3.99 million metric tons of palm oil products in MY 2022-23, followed by Malaysia at 2.17 million metric tons, the SEA said.

- On an overall basis, India imported 1.56 million metric tons of soybean oil from Argentina, accounting for 55% of purchases, while Brazil supplied 1.08 million metric tons, for a 38% of share. For sunflower oil, Russia is the leading supplier with 661,191 metric tons and a 30% share, followed by 447,304 metric tons from Ukraine at 21% and 301,352 metric tons from Argentina, the SEA said.

Aug 15 - Russian wheat harvest half completed, winter sowing starts (AgriCensus)

- The Russian wheat harvest has reached the half way point as 50% of the estimated areas were complete, while the first hectares have been planted with winter crops, data from the country's agriculture ministry showed on Tuesday. Russian farmers have already finished the gathering of wheat on 14.8 million ha and harvested 59.7 million mt, while the average yield was slightly up week-on-week to 4.2 mt/ha, which is also still well below last year’s 4.42 mt/ha at the same stage of the season.

- That comes along with local analysts’ estimates that have increased in recent weeks, with the current highest figure set by IKAR at 89.5 million mt, while the ministry’s idea is still stable at 78 million mt. The barley harvest has also got closer to the midpoint of the campaign, with 45% of the fields already completed and 11.4 million mt already in the bins from 3.59 million ha. The average yield has dropped again by 6% for the week to the current 3.18 mt/ha.

- The harvest of rapeseeds was limited with currently only 20.9% complete, which accounts for 1.3 million mt, while the yield stayed stable at 2.9 mt/ha.

- At the same time, Russian farmers also started the winter crop planting campaign, with a total of 69,700 ha sown, including 27,300 ha covered with rapeseeds, 4,900 ha with wheat, and the rest with rye.

- The data does not include the area under Ukrainian territories that are currently occupied by Russian forces, apart from annexed Crimea.

Aug 15 - India's July palm oil imports hit 7-month high as refiners boost purchases
India's palm oil imports in July jumped 59% from the previous month to 1.08 million metric tons, the highest in seven months, as refiners took advantage of lower prices to increase purchases, a trade body said on Monday. Higher imports by India, the world's biggest buyer of vegetable oils, would help top producers Malaysia and Indonesia bring down stocks and support Malaysian prices. 

Aug 15 - Rains lift soy prospects before warm and dry weather returns -Braun
More cool weather across the U.S. Corn Belt last week had a mostly positive impact on the Crop Watch corn and soybeans, and many locations received beneficial rain ahead of a less favorable incoming weather pattern. Forecasts early on Monday suggest minimal rain chances for most of the Corn Belt over the next week, save some opportunities in eastern areas mostly on Monday. Milder temperatures are expected to turn hot by the weekend.

Aug 14 - From too wet to bone dry: Indonesian coffee crop faces El Nino jolt
El Nino's dry weather threatens to further dent coffee production in Indonesia, the world's fourth largest grower, after excessive rains dragged down output to its lowest in more than a decade, driving global prices to all-time highs. Lower coffee output in Indonesia, which mainly produces robusta beans - having a bolder and more bitter flavour than the arabica variety - could trigger more gains in prices which have climbed more than 40% in 2023 and hit a record high in June.  

Aug 14 - US corn, soybean harvest forecasts cut on dry growing season -government
U.S. corn and soybean harvests will be smaller than previously expected as dry conditions early in the growing season robbed the crops of yield potential, the government said on Friday. Both forecasts fell below market expectations, but the corn crop, if realized, would still be the second biggest on record due to large acreage and as growing conditions improved during the key development month of July.

Aug 12 - EU 2023-24 wheat exports drop 17% y/y (IHSmarkit)

    Romania, Bulgaria, Poland top EU wheat exporters in 2023-24
    EU wheat imports rise 109% on year to 669,947 metric tons
    EU allows ban on Ukraine wheat sales in five countries until Sep 15

- The EU’s wheat exports in the marketing year 2023-24 (July-June) reached 2.98 million metric tons as of Aug. 6, down 17% from the corresponding period a year ago, EU Crop Observatory data showed Aug. 9. The largest exporters were Romania with 752,642 metric tons, followed by Bulgaria at 649,461 metric tons and Poland at 639,717 metric tons.
- The top importers of EU-origin wheat were Morocco with 652,033 metric tons, followed by Algeria at 456,716 metric tons and Nigeria at 228,693 metric tons, data showed.
- In MY 2022-23, EU had exported a total of 32.98 million metric tons wheat.

- Meanwhile, the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development July 27 pegged total wheat output in MY 2023-24 at 134.7 million metric tons, down from 137.1 million metric tons seen in the previous month. EU had harvested 133.9 million metric tons in MY 2022-23.
“The output is seen falling as higher temperatures and lack of moisture during the development stages had weighed on the crop’s growth,” a trader based in France said.

- The EU Joint Research Centre’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit, or MARS, lowered its soft wheat yield forecast to 5.8 metric tons per ha in July, from 5.92 metric tons per ha in June. However, according to Victoria Sinitsyna, senior grains analyst with S&P Global Commodity Insights, EU’s wheat output in MY 2023-24 is estimated at 136.3 million metric tons, up from 134.7 million metric tons in MY 2022-23.

- Wheat exports for MY 2023-24 are forecast at 34 million metric tons, up from actual exports of 32.98 million metric tons in the previous year, according to Victoria Sinitsyna, senior grains analyst with S&P Global.

Imports rise sharply
- The EU has imported 669,947 metric tons of wheat so far in MY 2023-24, up 109.1% from the previous marketing year. Imports so far in the current marketing year have come mainly from Ukraine and the UK, while Spain and Italy remained the largest importers of wheat in the EU, according to the EU Crop Observatory data.
- EU wheat imports for MY 2023-24 are forecast at 6 million metric tons, down from realized imports of 11.4 million metric tons in MY 2022-23, according to Victoria Sinitsyna, senior grains analyst with S&P Global.
- The pace of imports may be sluggish over the next few weeks as the European Commission allowed five member states -- Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria -- to restrict sales of Ukrainian wheat, as well as corn, oilseed and sunflower seed, into their domestic markets until Sept. 15.

Platts, part of S&P Global, assessed CPT of EU 11% protein wheat from France at $260.25 per metric ton Aug. 8, up $2/t on the day. Platts assessed EU wheat with 11.5% protein from Romania at $249.75/t Aug. 8, unchanged on the day.

Aug 12 - Malaysia’s July palm oil exports rise 15.6% on month, beat market expectations (IHSmarkit)

    End stocks rise marginally but lower than market expectations
    Markets turn positive in afternoon session after trading in red
    Platts assesses CPO FOB Indonesia at $874 per metric ton Aug 9

- Malaysia’s palm oil exports rose 15.6% on the month to 1.35 million metric tons in July, Malaysian Palm Oil Board said Aug. 10, exceeding market expectations of 1.26 million metric tons over the same period at the world’s second-largest palm oil producer. Palm oil inventories at end-July were pegged at 1.73 million metric tons, up marginally from June, MPOB said, but well below traders’ expectations of 1.85 million metric tons. After the data release, the most active October crude palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange was up two points in the afternoon trading session to MR3,773 per metric ton ($825.06/t), reversing a 51-point dip (1.5%) at the end of the morning session Aug. 10.

- A drop in end stocks could be constructive for long-term bulls, as the latest data suggests that the stocks will not cross the psychological level of 2 million metric tons at the end-month-end, said Tajgir Rahman, general manager of trading and procurement at Dubai-based Savola Foods Company. This means buffer stocks would be very low during low production season early next year, Rahman added.

- Over January-July, month-end stocks averaged 1.78 million metric tons, up 6.5% from 1.67 million metric tons for the corresponding period last year, MPOB data showed. In July, the production of crude palm oil at 1.61 million metric tons, which rose 11.2% on the month, according to MPOB data, was in line with market expectations.

- Markets will now focus more on production owing to a seasonal upward trend, Anilkumar Bagani, head of research at Mumbai-based vegetable oil brokerage Sunvin Group said. Bagani added that export demand is likely to recover in the absence of sunflower oil supplies from Ukraine due to the stalled Black Sea Grain corridor.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed crude palm oil FOB Indonesia at $874/t Aug. 9, down 3.4% from end-July

Aug 11 - ISO forecasts global sugar deficit of 2.12 million tons next season
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecast on Thursday a global sugar deficit of 2.12 million metric tons in 2023/24 (October-September), its first estimate for the upcoming season. The deficit forecast is due primarily to an expected decline in production in top producer Brazil, as well as the seasonality of Brazil's harvest, the sugar industry body said.  

Aug 11 - Tough-to-predict US corn, soy yields in the spotlight on Friday -Braun
Despite earlier volatility, Chicago-traded corn futures have struggled to find direction over the last several sessions, though a fresh U.S. crop forecast from the government could help sort that out on Friday. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August reports, which most prominently feature survey-based yield forecasts for U.S. corn and soybeans, have not historically been gentle on the futures market.

Aug 10 - Wasde preview: US soybean stocks expected to be cut again (AgriCensus)

- Market participants expect the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will reveal another round of cuts in its US soybean production and ending stock figures when it updates its August supply and demand estimates later this week, an Agricensus poll of traders and analysts has showed.

- The USDA will release its influential World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) report on Friday 11 and poll participants believe it will show a decrease in the supply side of the US’s soybean balance sheet both on ending stocks and production. On average, the poll expects the US 2023/24 soybean ending stocks at 266 million bushels (bu), below the 300 million reported at July’s Wasde.

- Poll participants look for maintenance on the acreage compared to the last report but for a decrease in yields to 51.3 bushels per acre (bpa) from the 52 bpa in July’s report and, consequentially, lower production to 4.24 billion bu from the 4.3 billion bu in the same comparative.

- That was supported by the persistent dry weather over the main US production areas, 51% of which is experiencing drought according to the last available US Drought Monitor report. In other regions, the pool expects Brazilian and Argentine soybean production to remain unchanged at 163 million mt and 48 million mt respectively, on the 2023/24 crop. However, when it comes to the 2022/23 crop, analysts and traders expect the Argentine crop to be reduced by 1 million mt, to 24 million mt in USDA’s August Wasde.

Finally, world ending stocks are expected to be decreased by 2 million mt, to 119 million mt, on the 2024/23 crop and by 1 million mt, to 102 million mt, regarding the 2022/23 crop.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its August 2023 Wasde report at 1200 Eastern Time on Friday, August 11.

Aug 10 -  French soft wheat may see some quality loss after rain - FranceAgriMer
Rain delays to the end of the soft wheat harvest in France may affect milling quality, though crop gathered before the wet spell was generally showing satisfactory readings, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Wednesday. Frequent showers and cool temperatures since late July in northern France and a swathe of northern Europe have raised concern about quality loss. That has added to doubts about global milling wheat supply as war in Ukraine threatens Black Sea trade and drought hurts North American crops. 

Aug 10 -  Almost 2% of sown area in China's grain belt hit by typhoon Doksuri
Continuous rain caused by the remnants of Typhoon Doksuri has affected 3.87 million mu (258,000 hectares) of the sown area in China's largest grain producing province Heilongjiang by midday on Wednesday, state broadcaster CCTV said. The affected areas, in northeast China's Heilongjiang, known as the nation's "great northern granary", account for around 1.77% of the province's total of 219 million mu of sown area in 2023, according to data from a state-backed information website.

Aug 09 - Brazil's January-July soybean exports to China touch record high (Secex & IHSmarkit)

- China imports 50.4 million metric tons of Brazilian soybean
- Brazilian soybeans more price competitive in H1 2023
- US becoming more competitive in recent weeks

Brazil’s soybean exports to China over January-July rose to an all-time high of 50.4 million metric tons, according to the country’s foreign trade ministry, or Secex, report released Aug. 7. According to Secex data, Brazil exported 72.47 million metric tons of soybeans between January and July this year, up 19.7% on the year, with China accounting for a lion’s share of the shipments at 69.5% in this period, the data showed. Compared with previous years, volumes of Brazilian oilseed to China rose significantly amid price competitiveness, commodity analysts said. Between March to early July, Brazilian soybeans were sold at a steep discount in the range of $20-$60 per metric ton to soybeans from its top competitor, the US, analysts said.

China-based crushers generally prefer protein-rich Brazilian beans over US-origin oilseed. As a result, the opportunity to buy the Brazilian soybeans in large volumes amid steep discounts was too good to let go for the local crushers and traders, analysts said.

In addition, 2023 so far has been an exceptionally good year for Brazilian soybean farmers. Buoyed by a record harvest of over 156 million metric tons in the marketing year 2022-23 (January-December 2023), the Brazilian oilseed prices have been very competitive in the international market, leading to robust export numbers.

The South American country is forecast to export a record 96 million metric tons of soybeans in MY 2022-23, up 25% on the year, Brazil’s National Agricultural Supply Company, or Conab, said.

US becoming price competitive
- In recent weeks, China has started purchasing more US-origin soybeans, as the prices have become more competitive. According to Platts assessments, the basis prices from both Brazil and the US have started converging in recent days as the harvest season approaches for the US beans in September. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed SOYBEX FOB Santos for September deliveries at $537.68 per metric ton and SOYBEX FOB New Orleans at $537.19/t Aug. 7.

Typically, the US soybeans sales soar between October and January, while the Brazilian beans are sold at elevated volumes for the rest of the year.

Aug 09 - U.S. farmers expect corn harvest could be second-biggest ever
The U.S. corn harvest could be the second-largest on record as rains during July shepherded the crop through its critical development phase, offsetting dry conditions early in the season and hot summer temperatures, analysts and farmers said. A strong harvest would add to domestic stockpiles that are expected to balloon as demand for U.S. corn exports wilts due to a massive harvest in Brazil, which is expected to overtake the United States as the world's top corn supplier. 

Aug 09 - Phillips 66, ADM in talks on biofuels joint venture – sources
U.S. oil refiner Phillips 66 and grain trader Archer-Daniels-Midland are discussing a biofuels joint venture with an aim toward producing lower-carbon jet fuel, three people familiar with the matter said. The oil and corn-based ethanol industries, which were at odds for years over blending mandates, have increasingly become allies amid a series of partnerships aimed at securing crop feedstocks to produce lower-carbon biofuels without costly refinery upgrades.

Aug 09 - Brazil to export 8.7m mt of soybean in August; 8.8m mt of corn ( Anec + AgriCensus)

- Brazilian soybean exports are projected to reach 8.7 million mt in August, up 74% year on year, while corn and soymeal shipments are also projected to surpass last year’s levels for the month, the country’s grain exporters' association Anec said in a report on Tuesday.
- Anec is considering the possibility of shorter cargo loading for both soybean and corn exports in August.

- That said, soybean exports could reach between 7- 8.7 million mt by the end of this month while last year Brazil exported 5 million mt in August. Brazilian corn shipments are expected to reach 8.8 million mt in August, up 27.5% from the 6.9 million mt sent abroad in the same month last year.

- However, Anec considers the possibility of shorter cargo loading, leading to shipment volumes between 7.8 – 9.8 million mt. Soymeal exports are forecast at 2.2 million mt in August, 29.4% higher than the 1.7 million mt from the same month last year.

Aug 09 - Australian chickpea exports surge in June, lentils drop (GrainCentral)

- Australia exported 157,371 tonnes of chickpeas and 158,971t of lentils in June, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

- Pakistan was the biggest market for chickpeas on 122,350t followed by Bangladesh on 20,631t and the United Arab Emirates on 5989t.
- On lentils, India was the volume destination for 127,620t, ahead of Sri Lanka on 27,046t and Nepal on 2498t.
- As Pakistan consolidates as a bulk rather than a containerised destination, its buying has lifted Australia’s total June chickpea exports to more than six times the level seen in June last year of 25,892t.
- For the shipping year which started October 1, Australia has shipped 604,518t of chickpeas to June 30, up 21pc from the 499,132t shipped in the comparable 2021-22 period.
- On lentils, the 2022-23 (Oct-Jun) figure of 1,299,719t is up 84pc from the 707,581t shipped in the corresponding 2021-22 period.

Aug 08 - Canada 2022-23 wheat exports rise 75% y/y (IHSmarkit)
- MY 2022-23 common wheat exports rise 71%; durum wheat up 94% on year
- MY 2023-24 wheat output seen at 35.3 million metric tons, up 5% on year
- Wheat exports in 2023-24 seen slightly down on year at 24.6 mil metric tons

- Canada’s total wheat exports during the marketing year 2022-23 (August-July) rose 75% on the year to over 24.8 million metric tons in the week to July 30, showed Canadian Grain Commission data Aug. 5. During the July 24-30 period, overall wheat exports rose 103.6% on the week to 596,700 metric tons, the data showed. Canada exported 19.7 million metric tons of common wheat in MY 2022-23, up 70.7% from MY 2021-22, the AAFC said. Shipments of durum wheat were at 5.1 million metric tons, 93.7% higher on year.

- Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada July 21 had raised its total wheat export forecast to 24.7 million metric tons in MY 2022-23, over 63.6% higher on the year. For MY 2023-24, total wheat exports are expected to remain slightly lower on year at 24.6 million metric tons, the AAFC said. The country is expected to ship out 19.9 million metric tons common wheat and 4.8 million metric tons durum wheat estimated for last season.

- Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed 13.5% Canadian Western Red Spring wheat for 30-45 days forward at $335.38/t FOB Vancouver August 4, down $3.6/t on the day.

Output scenario
- Canada is expected to harvest 33.8 million metric tons wheat in MY 2022-23, up from 22.4 million metric tons the previous year, the AAFC said.
- Common wheat output for the year has been pegged at 28.4 million metric tons, up from 19.4 million metric tons in MY 2021-22. The agency estimated production of durum wheat at 5.4 million metric tons for MY 2022-23, up from 3 million metric tons the previous year.
- For MY 2023-24, Canada is projected to produce 35.3 million metric tons of wheat, up 4.5% on the year, the AAFC said, pegging the output of common wheat at 29.6 million metric tons and durum wheat harvest at 5.7 million metric tons.
- Canadian farmers have planted wheat across 26.9 million acres (10.9 million hectares) for MY 2023-24 (August-July), the biggest area under the crop since 1997, Statistics Canada data showed June 28.
- Total area under wheat rose 6.7% on the year, led by an increase in spring wheat acreage, according to the data. The total acreage area was higher than market expectations of 26.5 million acres.

Aug 08 - Australia’s June exports muted amid lower competitiveness (AgriCensus)

- Australian wheat, barley, and rapeseed (canola) exports decreased in June, as the country lost price competitiveness versus Northern Hemisphere suppliers, official customs data showed Monday. Line-up data studied by Agricensus suggests that muted export rates will continue in July and through the next few months of the year as the seasonal trend for this period of the marketing year is felt.

- That comes as Northern Hemisphere producers start harvesting. However, unlike last year, the Northern Hemisphere has started the new marketing year with high stocks, which has also pushed down prices and made the region even more competitive as it runs into harvest.

- Meanwhile in Australia prices have been relatively stable amid quality concerns within the upcoming new crop.  Australia exported 2.57 million mt of wheat through June 2023, which is 22% lower compared to May figures and also 5% below the level seen in June 2022, when the previous record was set for this period.

- Indonesia took the lead as the main destination in monthly exports, with a market share of 20% - equivalent to 509,026 mt. That was followed by Thailand with 381,275 mt, Vietnam with 311,335 mt, and Iraq, which imported 265,000 mt of Australian canola. In turn, that meant that total exports since the beginning of the local 2022/23 marketing year, in October 2022, have now reached 25.47 million mt, up 21% year-on-year.

- Meanwhile, the latest available line-up data, including information from the country's three biggest grain operators (approximately 80% of the country's share), showed around 1.6 million mt of wheat had already loaded in July with around 830,298 mt nominated to leave through August.
- Barley exports dropped in June by 22% to 465,891 mt, which is also down 11% compared with the same period in 2022. The two biggest importers were Saudi Arabia with 184,000 mt or 39% of the shipped volume, and Japan with 155,090 mt or 33%. This lifted total barley volumes exported from Australia since the start of the marketing year in November 2022 to 5.48 million mt, 5% below the result seen during the same period a year ago.

- Meanwhile, the available line-up data implies stable rates in barley export flows are likely to maintain during July, as at least 259,924 mt of barley was already nominated for loading with another 216,723 mt during August. It is also expected to see an improvement of barley export as China has officially eliminated all the restrictions on Australian-origin imports on August 4, but this might be seen mostly for new crop starting in December, as nearby months' trade is not expected the big surge in such trade flow amid already booked port capacities.

- As for rapeseed, monthly exports again decreased by 35% to 329,162 mt, putting them also 39% lower than the same month last year. Pakistan remained the main importer with 120,599 mt or 37%, followed by Japan with 71,804 mt, Belgium with 62,065 mt, and France with 54,897 mt. Cumulative exports of rapeseeds for the marketing year in October have now reached 4.9 million mt - 2% up year-on-year.

Aug 07 - WMP at the GDT falls below $3,000/t (IHSmarkit)

- Dairy prices at the GDT collapsed. This reflects the continued weak demand globally. Production indications are mixed with some regions showing growth and others seeing production contract.
- At the GDT event on August 1, the WMP price plummeted 8% to $2,864/metric ton. This is the first time the WMP average has fallen below $3,000/t since October 2020 and is the lowest average price since June 2020. The price is now 19% down y/y.
- For several consecutive events, the WMP price has fallen by less than the futures market had been pegging. That changed at this event, with the futures market expecting a 3% decline rather than the 8% decline achieved.

Aug 07 - Chinese pig prices start to rebound (IHSmarkit)
- Prices of pigs and pork are showing signs of recovery in mainland China after a prolonged period in the doldrums. Monitoring from the Chinese Agriculture Ministry showed the average purchase price of live hogs rising to 15.91 yuan per kg in the week to July 30. This was 5% higher than the previous week, but was still 28% down on the same period last year.
- Analysis from local pig industry website Soozhu.com indicates that national prices for lean hogs rose further to stand at CNY17 per kg on 3 August – a jump of 20% in just two weeks.
- For pork, Chinese Agriculture Ministry figures show wholesale prices jumping to CNY21.60 per kg on 3 August – up 14% from CNY19/kg just two weeks ago.
- These increases will help ease pressure on hog producers, who have been losing large sums of money in recent months. The average producer was losing around CNY200 per animal in mid-July, but if recent price increases can be sustained they could soon be seeing positive margins.

Aug 07 - Soybeans claw back losses on Black Sea supply concerns
(IHSmarkit)
- Soybean futures closed higher on Friday (4 August) following other ag commodities after Ukrainian drone attacks near Russian a grain port export facility in the Black Sea triggered concerns about potential disruption to global grain and vegoil supplies.
- September 2023 soybeans finished up 5 cents at $13.87 per bushel.
- Favorable weather forecast for the US Corn Belt limited advances and meant the gains failed to fully recover losses seen earlier in the week.
- For the week, September 2023 soybeans lost 3.2%, while soybean meal lost 2.5% and soybean oil was down 0.4%.

Aug 07 - India might cut or abolish wheat import tax to boost supply, check prices
India is considering cutting or even abolishing a 40% import tax on wheat and lowering a limit on the amount of wheat stocks millers and traders can hold, a government official said on Friday, as part of efforts to boost supplies. "We have options like lowering or abolishing the wheat import duty and tweaking the stock holding limits to control prices," Sanjeev Chopra, the most senior civil servant at the federal food ministry, told reporters. 

Aug 07 - Philippines may extend reduced import tariffs on rice, other commodities
The Philippines may extend reduced import tariffs on rice and other commodities beyond 2023 to ease pressure on inflation, which remained above target last month, officials said. The lowered tariffs, also applying to corn and pork imports, are due to expire by the end of the year.

Aug 04 - Polish PM declares Ukrainian grain will not flow into Poland after Sept 15 (AgriCensus)

- Poland's Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Robert Telus, has sought to reassure the country's Independent Self-Governing Trade Union of Individual Farmers and the National Union of Farmers that grain imports from Ukraine would not be permitted after September 15, but that transit of product would continue. In a meeting held in Warsaw on August 3, Telus said, “We will do everything to help Ukraine in the transit of grains from Ukraine, but grain will not be able to enter Poland.”

- This came seemingly despite a decision from the European Commission, passed on July 25, that stated the bloc would await the results of the current harvest before deciding on an appeal made by five member states to extend a temporary import ban on Ukrainian agricultural products beyond the current September 15 deadline. In May, the European Commission agreed to impose a ban on Ukrainian imports of wheat, corn, rapeseed, and sunflower into Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia until September 15.

- Poland has exported over 4.5 million mt of cereal over the last four months, which has relieved some of the fears around mounting stock levels after a backlog of grain from the 2022 harvest built up in farmers' warehouses.
“In January 299,000 mt [was exported], in February 539,000 mt, in March 628,000 mt, in April 704,000 mt, in May 882,000 mt and in June almost 940,000 mt,” said Telus.

- At the same time, transit volumes of grain from Ukraine had also increased from 114,000 mt in February to 262,000 mt in June. Telus also proposed to facilitate the transportation of Ukrainian cereals to seaports in Lithuania and Latvia – and that these ports should also enable the export of Polish grain.

Aug 04 - China to lift tariffs on Australian barley as trade ties improve
China's Ministry of Commerce said on Friday it would drop anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on Australian barley imports that had been in place for three years affecting billions of dollars of trade, as the two nations repair strained ties. China and Australia agreed in April to resolve their dispute over barley imports, with Canberra to suspend a case at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over Beijing's anti-dumping and countervailing duties on barley, while China promised to speed up a review into the tariffs. 

Aug 04 - India rice stocks at three times target, easing supply concerns
India's rice stocks were at nearly three times its target at the start of August, two government sources in the world's second biggest producer country said on Thursday. Coupled with the new season crop that is due to start trickling into the market by October, the surplus will raise market hopes of New Delhi relaxing a recent export ban.

Aug 03 - Trade sources cast doubt on Russia-India wheat flows (AgriCensus)

- Trade sources have cast doubt on reports that India could allow the import of up to 9 million mt of Russian wheat via a state-to-state deal, amid concerns that the country's import infrastructure could struggle to cope with such volume. However, despite another huge crop itself, India is battling food inflation and a pick up in imports is expected - the question is just how much.

- Trade sources in India have told Agricensus that such a large volume would be impossible to consider being imported under a state-to-state deal, but conceded that total imports - both private and state - could reach that level. The prospect of increased imports has been on the radar for some time already amid firming domestic wheat prices and the government failing to reach its minimum procurement level - leaving stocks well below usually expected levels. The biggest annual volume of wheat India has imported in the last ten years was 3.97 million mt back in 2017, according to government customs’ data, and the sources spoken to by Agricensus have expressed doubts that in general it would be possible for India to handle such a volume through its current state and private ports.

- If such a figure was to be achieved it would propel India into the top tier of Russia's biggest buyers, landing between Turkey and Egypt – with 12.6 million mt and 8 million mt of annual imports respectively. Such a sharp increase is another reason why traders see the figure as unlikely, with such a substantial volume likely to have a major impact on the domestic market and potentially alienate Indian farmers.

Meanwhile, domestic prices have again started to firm after the relief brought about by the government's ban on rice exports leading to renewed talk about a possible reduction in the import duty. Fresh rumors are focussing on expectations that the current 40% import duty could be halved in the coming months.
“There are recommendations already sent by FCI (Food Corporation of India) and concerned bodies to concerned ministries to reduce import duty from 40% to 15% or 20%,” Rajesh Paharia from Commodity Traders Delhi told Agricensus.

While that measure is expected to cover any private import trade, Paharia expected the cut to have been implemented by the end of August or early September.

Aug 03 - UK dairy prices fall as ample supply weighs on market (IHSmarkit)

- Butter price falls 5% at the same time as cheddar loses 3%
- Bulk cream is the only wholesale price to avoid posting a decline
- The absence of a heatwave in the UK keeps production above year-ago levels

Reflecting a weaker European market, UK dairy wholesale prices have weakened. With the summer holiday period underway activity is low.

Butter demand is weak and availability is plentiful, so reflecting this the butter price fell 5% to £3,990/t.

Weakening prices at the GDT have pressured UK SMP prices. In July the UK SMP price fell 8% to £1,900/t. Compared to a year ago the price is 42% lower.

Cheddar prices were stabler than either butter or SMP but did not escape the pressure. The average cheddar price fell 3% to £3,470/t. Interest in buying is low

Bulk cream prices moved in contrast to the other dairy products. During the month there was a small lift with the price gaining 1% to £1,644/metric ton. The price reported at the end of the month was weaker at £1,610/t.

GB milk production continues on its seasonal descent. In the latest week, there was a step change in the y/y trend. During the first 2 weeks of July production was marginally (0.4% and 0.6%) above year-ago levels. During the 3rd week, the y/y increase jumped to 1.2%, however, the driving factor behind the change was the heatwave of 2022. During the 3rd week of July in 2022, UK temperatures reached 40℃ which was negative for cow comfort levels, and therefore production plummeted. Without that impact in 2023, collections have continued on a more typical seasonal decline trend.

The Agriculture & Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), is forecasting for milk collections to maintain a premium over the year-ago levels until the end of August. After then though collections are likely to be in-line or below year-ago levels.

Aug 03 - US pork firms split over Congress bill to overturn California animal welfare law
Some big U.S. pork producers that have spent money to comply with a California law requiring more living space for certain farm animals are lukewarm about legislation proposed in the U.S. Congress that would overturn the state law. The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC), the pork industry trade group, supports the Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression (EATS) Act, a bill introduced by U.S. Senator Roger Marshall and Representative Ashley Hinson that would curb the ability of states to regulate agricultural products sold within their borders.

Aug 03 - Weather woes, Russia upend outlook for global wheat suppliers

Drought is expected to send global wheat stockpiles for major exporters to the lowest levels in more than a decade, a Reuters analysis shows, a decline coming as top supplier Russia intensifies its conflict with Ukraine and creates more uncertainty for importers. Farms in areas of North and South America, Europe and Australia are facing crop losses as extreme weather spreads over an unusually wide geographic area, making food production increasingly vulnerable. Escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine have also returned concerns over food security to the forefront of grain trading and diplomacy.

Aug 02 - Reduced rainfall to limit Argentina rice harvest for second year in 2023-24 (IHSmarkit)

- Milled rice production expected to rise 3.3% y/y
- Reservoir levels are likely to only have water to support 15-20%
- Argentina rice exports projected to rise 4.5% y/y

-Argentina’s rice production will be limited for a second consecutive year in the marketing year 2023-24 (April 2024-March 2025) by insufficient rainfall, the USDA said in a country update.

Milled rice production is forecast at 685,000 metric tons, rising 3.3% from 663,000 metric tons in MY 2022-23, the USDA said. While harvested area is anticipated to contract by 1.3% to 158,000 hectares, the average field yield is expected to rise to 6.67 metric tons per hectare from 6.38 metric tons per hectare in MY 2022-23.
“The lack of good rains that could refill the level of the main rivers and water reservoirs in Corrientes and northern Entre Rios is expected to significantly limit the planted area in the next season which begins in early September,” the USDA update said.

The mentioned regions usually account for about 64,000 hectares or roughly one third of Argentinian rice planted area and rely to varying degrees on irrigation from reservoirs as opposed to other regions irrigated mainly from rivers or wells.

The USDA estimates that planted area will fall by 50% in these areas because reservoir levels are likely to only have water to support 15-20% of this acreage. Steady prices and lower production costs are likely to prompt farmers to plant beyond what reservoir levels can support in the hope that El Nino conditions will provide the necessary rainfall to complete crop development.

Argentina is forecast to export 230,000 metric tons of rice in 2023-24, up 4.5% from 220,000 metric tons in MY 2022-23, meaning it will have a lower profile in the international rice trade for a further year. Exports in 2021-22 are estimated at 422,000 metric tons.

The forecasts provided by the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) were all significantly below USDA official forecasts with the exception of beginning and ending stocks which it put at 147,000 metric tons and 151,000 metric tons respectively for 2023-24.   

Aug 01 - South Africa due to harvest bumper corn crop ( IHSmarkit )

- South Africa expected to harvest 17 million metric tons of corn in 2022/23: USDA
- 5.3% y/y increase comes from higher yields, despite lower harvested area
- USDA projects output will fall to 16.8 million metric tons in 2023/24

South Africa is currently harvesting another bumper corn harvest for the 2022/23 marketing year, according to the USDA, and is poised to produce 17 million metric tons. This represents a 5% y/y increase. Even though harvested area is down y/y, the spike in output is linked to higher yields following favorable weather conditions. Additionally, the usage of new production technologies and more effective farming techniques, such as precision farming, have been credited for rising corn yields.

The USDA stated that the South Africa’s corn production has doubled over the past two decades as a result of these technologies and techniques. Indeed, the body reported that this would be the country’s second largest corn harvest on record. South Africa’s five largest corn harvests on record were produced in the past seven years.

Large harvests have weighed on prices in the country, with the SAFEX Yellow Maize nearby contract closing the week to July 28 at Rand 3,595 per metric ton, down by 19% from the start of 2023.

The caveat of this season’s output expansion is that it may limit opportunities for 2023/24. This, in addition to an expected increase in soybean planting, is the reason the USDA forecast 2023/24 output at 16.8 million metric tons, down by 1.2% y/y.

South Africa is the continent’s largest corn producer, ahead of both Nigeria and Ethiopia. Although there have been reports of poor infrastructure in addition to poor economic performance, the country is home to Africa’s most modern, productive, and diverse agricultural sector. It boasts approximately 32,000 commercial farmers, and its grain industry contributes more than 30% to the nation’s agricultural output.

Aug 01 - Wheat prices continued to fall yesterday, but will rise again after today port attacks (UAGrainTrade)

- Speculative jumps in wheat prices continue on the world market, provoked by the Russian Federation, which is trying to sell its harvest at the best prices, for which it blocks exports from Ukraine. Chicago soft wheat prices rose 12% in the week before last amid shelling of Danube and Black Sea ports, but fell 16.9% last week, including 8.2% over the last two sessions on news of the so-called breakout of the three ships to the ports of Ukraine, although in fact they did not go to the Black Sea ports, but to the Danube ports.
- On the night of August 2, the Russian Federation once again attacked the Danube ports with drones, the damage to which will once again stop supplies from Ukraine to Constanta, and will also lead to an increase in the cost of freight.
 
- The Russian Federation published official harvest data, according to which on July 31, 37.4 million tons of wheat were threshed from 9.2 million hectares or 31% of the area with a yield of 4 tons/ha, although 19% of the area was threshed last year. Areas of winter wheat sowing decreased, and spring wheat - increased by 6%. The state of spring wheat in the east of the Russian Federation has improved thanks to the July precipitation, so local agencies have increased the harvest forecasts to 87-87.5 million tons.
- The state-owned Algerian company OAIC purchased 590,000 tons (according to some reports, up to 800,000 tons) of soft wheat of Black Sea origin (mainly Russian, Romanian, and Bulgarian) at a tender on July 31 for delivery on October 1-31 at a price of $276/t C&F.
- The war in Ukraine remains the main factor affecting world wheat prices. However, Russian wheat is the cheapest on the market, so many countries continue to buy it despite sanctions, as well as cheap Russian oil.

Aug 01 - India basmati rice exporters get requests for early shipments
Indian rice exporters have been receiving requests from buyers to advance shipments of basmati rice after New Delhi banned exports of non-basmati white rice to dampen local prices, industry officials told Reuters. The world's biggest exporter of rice surprised buyers earlier this month by imposing a ban on exports of non-basmati white rice after retail rice prices climbed 3% in a month after late but heavy monsoon rains caused significant damage to crops. 

Aug 01 - Strategie Grains cuts EU oilseed crop estimates after dry weather
Crop consultancy Strategie Grains lowered its forecast for this year's oilseed harvests in the European Union by a total of over 1 million metric tons, mainly to take account of damage caused by scorching weather in several parts the bloc. Brutally high temperatures in many EU member states and excessive rains elsewhere over the past few months have prompted several forecasters to reduce their outlook for the bloc's grain and oilseed crops this week.