Grains, Seeds, Vegoils, Meals, Softs, Agri News

Jun 17 - NOPA May US soy crush at 192.829 million bushels, below most trade estimates
The U.S. soybean crush in May was lighter than most trade estimates but still reached the highest-ever total for the fifth month of the year, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday. NOPA members, which account for at least 95% of soybeans crushed in the United States, processed 192.829 million bushels of the oilseed last month, up 1.4% from the April crush of 190.226 million bushels and up 5.0% from the May 2024 crush of 183.625 million bushels.

Jun 17 - Russia's May seaborne grain exports fell 62.9% y/y to 2.1 million tons
Russia's seaborne grain exports fell to 2.1 million metric tons in May, a fall of 62.9% compared to the same month of 2024, according to shipping data from industry sources released on Monday. Russia, the world's leading wheat exporter, shipped grain to global markets at a record pace during the first part of the 2024/25 marketing season, which began on July 1 last year. However, the introduction of export quotas in February resulted in a sharp decline in exports.

Jun 16 -Russian seaborne grain exports plunge in May (Reuters)
Russia's seaborne grain exports fell to 2.1 million tonnes in May, a fall of 62.9 per cent compared to the same month of 2024, according to shipping data from industry sources released on Monday.

Russia, the world's leading wheat exporter, shipped grain to global markets at a record pace during the first part of the 2024/25 marketing season, which began on July 1 last year. However, the introduction of export quotas in February resulted in a sharp decline in exports.

Total seaborne exports have reached 44.6 million tons so far this season, down 27.7 per cent year-on-year, according to the data.

Exports via Black Sea terminals decreased by 63 per cent year-on-year to 1.9 million tons in May. Exports through the Caspian Sea, a route primarily serving Iran, were completely stopped in April and did not resume in May.

Grain exports from Baltic Sea terminals, which supply Russian grain to new markets including in Africa and Latin America, decreased by 43.7 per cent in May to 0.09 million tonnes, according to the data.

Seaborne exports accounted for about 90 per cent of Russia's total grain exports last season. Last year, Russia exported about 62 million tons of grain through its sea terminals, according to analysts' estimates.

Jun 16 - China allows import of eligible pork, poultry products from 106 US plants
China has approved 106 new U.S. pork and poultry plants to export eligible products produced on or after June 12, Chinese Customs said in a notice on its website. The approval was issued on Thursday, the notice showed. It comes after China and U.S. agreed on a framework to get their trade truce reached in Geneva talks last month back on track.

Jun 14 - Weekly USA Grain and Protein Report ( Hammersmith Blog )
- At the end of the week corn futures prices in the USA were down by just over USD 2 m/t while US soybeans were up by USD 6 m/t and soymeal was lower by USD 5 m/t. US winter wheat increased by USD 4 m/t while US spring wheat was unchanged for the week.
- Soybeans price strength this week seemed to be mainly due to US government changes to the biofuel blend mandate which should certainly see an increase domestic demand for soybeans and soyoil. Along with that there is a change in possible imports of tallow and used cooking oil which should also push up domestic US demand.
- While corn stocks were lower in the WASDE report and corn prices started to slip lower , expected higher ethanol production and strong exports both helped to strengthen the corn market so that the end of week drop was minimal. Corn weather is still very good and USA corn production is going to be big. Longer term we could see corn prices sliding lower. 
- Between the changes in the biofuel blend and the Israel/Iran situation there was no reason to stop the rally in soybeans/soyoil. Soymeal is lower as the increased demand for soyoil will push the crush numbers higher and create quite a pile of soymeal that will have to be sold….probably at lower price.
- The WASDE report was bearish for wheat but lower prices attracted lots of buying interest and Friday was a strong day for all wheat….. perhaps not enough for a full week higher but certainly it looks like the bulls may be getting back into to US wheat market.

Jun 14 - Fishmeal and Fishoil Comments : PERUVIAN “INDICATION” PRICES ( Hammersmith Blog )

- Total catch in the North/Central region of Peru is now up to 2.05 million m/t leaving about 950,000 m/t on the quota. Estimated fishmeal production is at 464,000 m/t and fishoil at 54,300 m/t. Juvenile levels are still just above 31% for the overall average and there are still 300+ vessels fishing.
- Overall fishing has slacked off somewhat which has caused buyers to raise their bids a little but producers are said to be holding back on much new business until there is a better feel for how fishing will continue.  
- Fishmeal sales are reported to have just passed 510,000 m/t or perhaps a little higher --- therefore, sales are still in excess of production. Sales to date represent about 70% of the estimated production if the full quota is landed ….. perhaps it is time to be a bit conservative on selling.
- Prices for the best grades of fishmeal from Peru continue to move higher due to very limited supply while lower grades are mostly steady in price. It is reported in the trade that prices in China are also moving higher.

Jun 13 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
Crop 2024
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jul @1'085$

- Ukraine
· COCERAL updated its expectations for the harvest in Ukraine in 2025: wheat - 22.7 million tons (22 million tons in 2024), corn - 29.3 million tons (25.9 million tons), barley - 4.8 million tons (5.4 million tons), soybeans - 5.5 million tons (5.75 million tons), sunflower - 14.8 million tons (12.5 million tons), rape - 3.3 million tons (3.7 million tons).
· As of 12.06 in Ukraine were sown: spring wheat - 221.2 thousand hectares, spring barley - 753.2 thousand hectares, corn - 4030.5 thousand hectares, sunflower - 5016.9 thousand hectares, soybeans - 2387.3 thousand hectares.
- USA
· Heavy rains in the United States delay winter wheat harvesting and may adversely affect grain quality. As of June 8, only 4% of the crop has been threshed (11% in the last year, 7% in the average for 5 years).
- Europe
· COCERAL updated its forecasts for the EU-27 harvest in 2025: soft wheat - 129.5 million tons (in 2024 - 114.2 million tons), maize - 60.5 million tons (59.7 million tons), barley - 52.4 million tons (50 million tons), soybeans - 3 million tons (3.2 million tons), sunflower - 10.1 million tons (8.5 million tons), rape - 19.2 million tons (17 million tons).

- CORN
The liquidity in the corn market remains low - the bulk of the buyers completed the purchase of grain this season and refocused on the early crops of the new crop. Despite active offers from farmers, demand is limited, and prices in ports have fallen to $ 223-225/t DAP.
New crop corn is traded at 196-198 $/t DAP with delivery in October-November. Farmers are in no hurry to contract, as the current price levels do not meet their expectations.

- WHEAT
Despite the improvement of crop forecasts in the EU and Russia, the wheat market is consolidated at minimum levels, while delays in collection in the US due to excessive precipitation create a certain tension.
In Ukraine, the old crop wheat has almost lost its relevance, and the residual demand is limited mainly by processors. Trading in the new crop remains restrained: although interest from buyers is present, manufacturers are not in a hurry to conclude contracts, waiting for the start of harvest and a clearer market situation.

- SUNFLOWER
The price pressure is maintained on the sunflower market. The proposal is growing due to active sales by farmers and sufficient balances, while the purchasing activity of processors remains low - most of the needs are already covered, with some operators focusing on preparing for the rape season. Sunflower oil was traded in ports at 1085-1095 $/t CPT Southern on June and 1080-1085 $/t on July.

- RAPESEED
The situation in the world market of rapeseed is tense. Spring drought and moisture shortages in major EU countries, particularly France, Germany and Poland, have already led to a decline in the expected harvest. In Canada, the canola is also affected by heat and dry conditions, which only increases the risks to global balance.

- SOYA
Prices for soybeans of the old GMO crop remain stable. For the new yield of non-GMO soy there is a slight decrease. Demand from buyers is limited, which causes weak activity in the market.

Jun 13 - Argentina exchange raises 2024/25 soy forecast by 300,000 tons
Argentina's 2024/25 soybean harvest is expected to reach 50.3 million tons, 300,000 tons more than previously forecast, thanks to higher-than-expected yields, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said on Thursday. Argentina is the world's largest exporter of soybean oil and meal. 

Jun 13 - ADM sets off 'frenzy' in US soybean market ahead of new biofuel blend rule
Archer-Daniels-Midland, a major U.S. soybean crusher and biofuel producer, slashed its bids to buy the oilseed this week ahead of an expected Trump administration announcement on biofuel blending requirements, a primary driver of demand for soybean oil. Processors such as Chicago-based ADM have been waiting for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's decision on blending requirements for months as they grapple with slumping crush margins and abundant soybean stocks

Jun 13 - USDA projects tighter US corn inventories as exports rise
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday cut its forecast for how much corn will be left in storage bins before this year's harvest as it raised its estimate for exports. U.S. exports have been strong this year because prices were competitive on the world market. Corn futures this week fell to a 2025 low as weather looks favorable for the recently planted U.S. crop, fueling expectations for a large harvest.

Jun 13 - Brazil crop agency ups 2024/25 soy supply, export forecast
Brazil's soybean production forecast for the 2024/25 season, which is almost over nationwide, has been raised to 169.60 million metric tons from 168.34 million tons, national crop agency Conab said in a report on Thursday. The country's soybean production is expected to rise some 15% from the previous season, reflecting good weather and excellent yields in key producing regions like Mato Grosso state, where supplies will hit a record of 50.58 million tons this season.

Jun 12 - French cognac makers offer China minimum import prices to fend off tariffs

    China has imposed provisional tariffs of up to 39% on cognac imports
    Duties applied amid wider trade dispute with the EU
    China's anti-dumping probe deadline is set for July 5

- Negotiators representing French cognac producers suggested minimum prices for exports to China of between $20 and around $300 per litre as an opening bid in talks aimed at ending a tariff stand-off with China, a document seen by Reuters shows.
The minimum prices are part of efforts to avoid permanent tariffs of up to 39% amid tense negotiations with China's commerce ministry, which has opened an anti-dumping investigation focused on the sector. They were sent to producers several weeks ago for their approval by a Paris-based law firm negotiating on the spirit makers' behalf, a source familiar with the matter said. A spokesperson for the law firm, GIDE, declined to comment.

- The industry, grappling with falling sales and simultaneous tariff threats from the United States, its other key market, has been fighting to secure a deal with China since Beijing first threatened to levy the duties in January 2024. The move came amid a wider trade dispute with the European Union after it imposed tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.
A flurry of political meetings in Paris and technical discussions in Beijing last week raised hopes that a settlement of the trade spat was imminent. But the talks ended with no deal, leaving just weeks to go before a July 5 deadline for Beijing to wrap up its anti-dumping probe.

- Chinese authorities subsequently announced that the industry had made a voluntary "price pledge" and it was reviewing its terms.
Separately, the head of France's wine and spirit exports lobby group FEVS told newspaper Le Figaro an agreement "in principle" to lift the trade restrictions in return for minimum prices has been reached with Chinese authorities. He gave no further details.
"The recent phone calls between President Macron and (Chinese President) Xi Jingping have helped here," FEVS President Gabriel Picard was quoted as saying in an article published on Thursday.
- The price list seen by Reuters included a "minimum import price" for different bands of cognac defined by how long the spirit has been aged, ranging from two years for the cheapest "Very Special" (VS) cognacs to the most expensive "Extra Extra Old" (XXO), aged 14 years or more. Under the offer, VS cognac would have a minimum import price of 144.70 yuan ($20.16) per litre, while "Very Superior Old Pale" (VSOP), aged for at least four years, would be priced at 177.92 yuan. High-end "Extra Old" (XO) would cost 526.52 yuan to import, with the XXO category, where prices reach thousands of dollars per bottle and more, costing at least 2,126.07 yuan ($296.16) per litre.

- France's BNIC industry body declined to comment on the prices, citing confidential negotiations. "We keep waiting and hoping for a good outcome," a BNIC spokesperson said.
The prices in the document refer to the price paid for cognac by importers in China, with distributors, wholesalers, retailers and consumers paying more to buy it.

Jun 12 - India's granaries overflow as rice stocks hit record, wheat surges
India's rice stocks in government warehouses rose 18% from a year ago to a record high for the start of June, while wheat stocks have hit their highest level in four years on higher procurement from farmers, official data showed on Wednesday. Record rice stocks will help the world's biggest exporter increase shipments, while an improvement in wheat inventories will help the federal government tame any price spikes later this year by increasing open market sales.

Jun 12 - Ukraine southern regions barley harvest shows low yield, analyst says
Farmers in the southern Ukrainian Mykolaiv region have started harvesting barley and yields are at a very low level, analyst ASAP Agri said on Wednesday. "As part of our ongoing wheat crop tour this week, ASAP Agri has recorded the first barley harvests beginning in the Mykolaiv region, notably in areas most affected by spring frost and drought," the consultancy said on the Telegram messenger app.

Jun 12 - South Korea’s MFG buys up to 65,000 metric tons feed wheat, traders say
South Korea's Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased around 55,000 to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat to be sourced from optional origins in a private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender, European traders said. One consignment was purchased at an estimated $254.99 a ton cost and freight including a surcharge for additional port unloading. 

Jun 11 - Ukraine targets Middle East for grains exports as EU quotas set in
Ukrainian traders are looking to increase grains exports to the Middle East as their tariff-free access to the European Union's market has expired, according to the chief executive of a business that supplies grains to Jordan. The EU waived duties and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural goods following Russia's invasion of Ukraine three years ago, but restored a pre-war regime of trade quotas last Friday, pending the conclusion of a new trade deal with Kyiv. 

Jun 11 - Russia's 2025 grain harvest seen exceeding last year's, Deputy PM says
Russia's grain harvest is seen at 135 million metric tons in 2025, above the last year's level of 130 million tons, Interfax news agency quoted Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev as saying on Tuesday. Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, saw the grain harvest fall last year due to bad weather ranging from spring frosts to drought.

Jun 10 - US wheat gets a glow-up: Multiyear highs for crop health, export sales: Braun
Second-worst ever. That’s how health conditions for the 2025 U.S. winter wheat crop were described last autumn. But winter wheat ratings now sit at a six-year high for early June, just as the harvest is kicking off. This is exactly what U.S. exporters need to continue – and potentially expand – their impressive sales into next year. As of Sunday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture rated 54% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition, above trade expectations and up from 50% two weeks earlier.
 
Jun 10 - Tariffs on canola seen supercharging Canadian farmers' shift to spring wheat
In the U.S. Great Plains, where spring wheat once dominated fields, farmers are turning away from the crop. But across the border in Canada, the pinch and prospect of Chinese and U.S. tariffs on canola have prompted farmers to pick up the slack on wheat. Farmers are still putting their crops in the ground, so it is not yet possible to know the extent of the acreage shift into wheat. 

Jun 10 - Russian new crop wheat exports still unchanged, June export estimates fall
Prices for new crop Russian wheat were unchanged last week, with analysts lowering their estimates for June exports amid low market activity. The price for new crop Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in the second half of July was $225 per metric ton, same as a week ago, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy. 
 
Jun 10 - South Korea’s NOFI tenders to buy up to 138,000 metric tons of corn
Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is also Tuesday, June 10. Arrival of the corn in South Korea is sought in two consignments of 45,000 to 69,000 tons.

Jun 09 - China May soybean imports hit record high of 13.92 million metric tons
China soybean imports hit a record high of 13.92 million metric tons in May, customs data showed, more than double the volume imported in April, as customs clearance speeds returned to normal and the operating rate of crushing plants recovered. Imports had plunged to a 10-year low of 6.08 million metric tons in April, as prolonged customs delays and late shipments from Brazil - caused by harvest slowdowns and logistical issues - disrupted the usual cargo flow.

Jun 09 - China wants slimmer pigs
Chinese farmers and small firms have increasingly bought market-ready pigs from larger breeders and fattened them in a bet on higher prices, but the government is cracking down on the speculative practice to slim down hogs and stabilise the market. For small breeders, "refattening" or buying adult hogs from big producers and feeding them for an extra few months until they put on an extra 40-50kg is a way to gamble on pork prices rising.

Jun 09 - Grains powerhouse Argentina could lose market share due to Vietnam-US trade deal, Rosario exchange warns
Progressing trade negotiations between the U.S. and Vietnam could significantly diminish Argentina's substantial share of Vietnam's corn and soymeal import market, the Rosario grains exchange said in a report on Friday. Argentina is currently Vietnam's leading grains supplier, accounting for more than 50% of its corn and 65% of its soymeal imports by value over the past five years, the exchange said.

Jun 07 - Fishmeal & Fishoil Comments and Prices : PERUVIAN “INDICATION” ( Hammersmith Blog )

- North/Central fishing in Peru reached a total of 1.93 million m/t leaving 1.07 mm/t on the quota.

- Some trade reports are speculating that the full quota will not be reached as landings are now down to about 40,000 m/t per week due to fishing bans and bad weather. However, trade reports also say that fishing is expected to improve for the next few weeks with a possible catch at 2,8 mm/t at the end of June.

- Super Prime fishmeal is said to be impossible to buy in Peru with Prime almost as difficult to find ---- lower grades of fishmeal are all that are available for now. One trade report said that it is the high level of juvenile anchovies that is keeping the protein levels lower. Juveniles are still about 31 to 33% of the catch.
 
- Demand is steady for export fishmeal with the sales seeming to be keeping ahead of production. Fishmeal production in the North/Central region is at about 436,000 m/t but sales are said to be just over 500,000 m/t. As usual, it looks like every ton of fishmeal produced will be a ton of fishmeal sold. It has been a long time since there has been any surplus of fishmeal in Peru.

- I had a call this week from a company that is building a facility to produce high protein meal from methane gas but, like all protein alternatives, this will be very high priced, low volume production that will have to find a niche in the protein market. The planned production is only 50,000 m/t per year, which certainly won’t scare the fishmeal industry. 

- There seems to be new attempts to find a fishmeal alternative every year and every year the fishmeal industry just keeps happily chugging along --- selling every ton and wishing that there were more.

Jun 07 - Weekly USA Grain and Protein Report ( Hammersmith Blog )

- Another busy week in the grain/oilseed/protein business with not quite as much tariff related market excitement. USA corn prices were up by about USD 5 m/t for the week with soybeans also up by USD 4 or 5 m/t. Soymeal was almost unchanged for the week. USA winter wheat prices were higher by USD 6 or 7 m/t with spring wheat only up by about USD 4 m/t.

- Corn prices moved higher on 2025 crop quality concerns as the planting was delayed in some parts of the US due to heavy rainfall. Some are saying that corn plantings may not reach the USDA forecast as a result of the delays. Of course, reports also add that 93% of the corn has been planted but this is still below the five-year average planting level.

- Soybeans were said to be higher based on the planned USA/China tariff talks next week. The market seems to be expecting an agreement that will see US soybeans back into the market in China. The soybean crop is 84% planted, which is 4% above the five year average.

- Wheat prices were higher mainly due to the increased attacks on the Ukraine and the threats of more to come from Russia with possible increased attacks on Ukraine grain export facilities. Also, heavy rainfall in parts of the wheat belt look to possible delays of winter wheat harvesting. Winter wheat condition is at 52% good to excellent, which sounds low, but is actually higher than average --- the average is at about 49%. The drought in parts of the wheat belt seems to be over.

Jun 06 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
Crop 2024
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jun @1'100$
Crop 2025
· rape NE-GMO ISCC DAP Germany, serp @....

- Ukraine
· In 2025, grain harvests in Ukraine may fall by 10% - up to 51 million tons against 56.7 million tons last year due to unfavorable weather and military risks.
· Exports from Ukraine of cereals, oilseeds and their products in May amounted to: corn - 2 021 thousand tons, wheat - 959.7 thousand tons, barley - 37.6 thousand tons, soybeans 253.2 - thousand tons, rape - 33.8 thousand tons, sunflower - 0.36 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 466.5 thousand tons, soybean oil - 45 thousand tons, cake (soybean and sunflower) - 45 thousand tons.
· As of 05.06 in Ukraine were sown: spring wheat - 219.4 thousand hectares, spring barley - 748.7 thousand hectares, corn - 3994.9 thousand hectares, sunflower - 4932.2 thousand hectares, soybeans - 2329.2 thousand hectares.
- USA
·Harvesting of winter wheat has started in the USA - 3% of the crop has been threshed as of June 1.

- CORN
European buyers are waiting for cheap Brazilian second harvest corn, the supply of which is expected closer to the end of June - beginning of July. Therefore, interest in the procurement of Ukrainian corn of the old harvest is limited, given its still relatively high price.
In the domestic market, corn is getting cheaper on both the old and the new harvest. Interest on the part of buyers fades, trading volumes are reduced.

- WHEAT
The new crop strengthens market dominance by ousting the old wheat from the trade focus. Interest in last year's grain is rapidly fading - the demand is minimal, and prices are noticeably subsiding. Buyers are increasingly targeting new wheat as the start of the harvesting campaign approaches. Against this background, the value of wheat of the new crop also decreases - the market feels the pressure of the expected offer.

- SUNFLOWER
Sunflower prices continue to decline, forming a weak market for sellers. Against the background of low activity and uncertainty with the future demand from processors, farmers, on the contrary, demonstrate high readiness for sales. This leads to an increase in supply, and under the conditions of limited procurement interest - only increases the pressure on the price.

- RAPESEED
The market remains volatile against the background of the expected supply, high demand and passivity of farmers. Rape of the new crop was traded at 505-515 $/t on the basis of DAP ports.

- SOYA
Demand in the domestic soybean market remains limited, which contributed to a moderate reduction in prices. In the ports of Odessa, the cost of soybeans with GMOs is 384-386 $/t DAP.

Jun 06 - Argentina soy yields above forecasts as wet soil slows harvest, exchange says
Argentina's soybean yields continue to track higher than expected this season, the Rosario grains exchange said on Thursday, signaling that the process of harvesting the key agricultural export is however progressing slower than usual. "Despite delays in the harvest, we continue to see higher yields than those initially expected, especially in the southern agricultural region and western Buenos Aires province," the Buenos Aires exchange said in a weekly report. 

Jun 05 - Drought bakes China's wheat belt, slashing harvests for some
About an hour by road northwest of the famed Terracotta Warriors, combine harvesters send out clouds of dust as they work their way through the parched wheat fields of Maqiao village in China's northwestern Shaanxi province. But local farmers like Zhou Yaping say there is little to celebrate. 

Jun 05 - Farmers in EU raise alarm over Mercosur, Ukraine trade deals
French and Spanish farmers warned on Wednesday that a flood of imports under planned European Union trade agreements with South American bloc Mercosur and Ukraine risked severely undermining European agriculture. The concerns come ahead of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's official visit to France and the expiry on Thursday of a free trade deal with Ukraine, which is expected to shift to import quotas this summer.

Jun 04 : Prices of Russian wheat have fallen to a multi-month low ( SovEkon )

Purchasing prices of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein in deep-sea ports fell to 16,500 - 16,800 rub/t ($209) from 16,800 - 17,000 rub/t ($210) a week earlier, analysts of SovEkon calculated. Ruble prices plunged to their lowest level since September 2024 under the pressure of weakening export quotations and the strengthening of the ruble.

The main factor in the price decline was the weakening of export quotations. Quotes on Russian wheat with 12.5% protein of the old harvest fell to $240-243/t from $248-250/t a week earlier.

The ruble’s appreciation also remains a drag on prices. On June 2, 78.61 rubles were offered for one dollar against 101.67 rubles at the beginning of the year.

Exports from Russia are sluggish. SovEkon estimates exports of wheat from Russia in May at 1.9 million tons compared to 4.5 million tons a year ago and an average of 2.2 million tons. According to the preliminary estimate of SovEkon, in June from the Russian Federation will also be shipped 1.9 million tons against 4.2 million tons a year earlier and 2.2 million tons on average.

Optimism about a new crop is also putting some pressure on wheat prices. The new wheat crop is expected to begin trading in July.

In the near future, the ruble wheat market is likely to remain under pressure. A possible reduction in export duties and low cereal stocks could help support prices. An additional factor could be the possible weakening of the ruble.

Jun 04 - Ukraine's 2025 grain harvest may fall 10%, minister says
Ukraine's 2025 grain harvest may decrease by 10% to around 51 million metric tons compared to 56.7 million tons in 2024, according to the most pessimistic estimates, Ukrainian agriculture minister Vitaliy Koval said on Tuesday.Ukraine is a global producer of grains and oilseeds, but the harvest is highly dependent on favourable weather conditions during both the autumn sowing and spring months. 

Jun 04 - India's May palm oil imports jump 87% to six-month high, dealers say
India's palm oil imports in May surged to a six-month high, as lower inventories and the tropical oil's discount to rival soyoil and sunflower oil prompted refiners to increase purchases, according to five dealers. Higher palm oil and soyoil imports by India, the world's biggest buyer of vegetable oils, could support Malaysian palm oil prices and U.S. soyoil futures.

Jun 03 - Egypt's new grains buyer struck rare deal for French wheat, sources say
Egypt's state grains buyer Mostakbal Misr agreed in April to buy around 180,000 metric tons of French wheat from two top European traders, trading sources said, in a sign of growing acceptance of the new entity by global suppliers. Mostakbal Misr bought two 60,000 metric ton cargoes from one firm and another similarly sized cargo from another, two trading sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters, though they said delivery of the cargoes was facing delays. 

Jun 03 - Australia forecasts wheat output down 10% on dry conditions; barley, canola also hit
Australia's wheat production is projected to drop 10% this year to 30.6 million metric tons, with barley and canola output also expected to fall due to dry conditions across several cropping regions, the agriculture ministry said. Nevertheless, production is expected to remain well above the 10-year average, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) said in a quarterly crop report.

Jun 02- FISHMEAL & OIL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” ( Hammersmith blog )

Fishing in the south of Peru has dropped to almost nothing in the past week --- total landed is now at 194,800 with 56,200 remaining on the quota. Fishing in the North/Central region is also lower this week due to bad weather and fishing bans. The total North/Central catch is now at 1.69 million m/t which shows 1.31 mm/t on the quota.

The juvenile level in the North/Central catch is still quite high so more mini bans are to be expected.

The price spread between super prime/prime and other grades is widening as demand has covered almost all of the higher grade production. Total estimated sales are now at about 500,000 m/t which is almost 75% of total production if the full quota is landed.

Peru’s fishmeal exports in 2025, January to April, are at 513,000 m/t which is up by 83% from last year’s lower catch shipments. Shipments to Asia are at 88% with 9% going to Europe. China’s imports of fishmeal are up by 11.5% January to April 2025, to 624,500 m/t, with 50.2% (313,000 m/t) coming from Peru. All statistics are from the MSI Ceres weekly report.

The weather in North/Central Peru is getting worse for fishing and the mini bans make forecasting difficult. Everyone has their fingers crossed that June will be a decent fishing month and that we will reach full quota.

Jun 02 - India cuts import tax on crude edible oils to help reduce food prices
India halved the basic import tax on crude edible oils to 10% on Friday, the government said, as the world's biggest vegetable oil importer tries to bring down food prices and help the local refining industry. The customs duty applies to crude palm oil, crude soyoil and crude sunflower oil. 

Jun 02 - Thai poultry industry poised for growth on Brazil bird flu, lower feed costs
Thailand's poultry sector is poised to grow this year, as an avian flu outbreak in top exporter Brazil creates market opportunities, and lower feed costs improve margins for the world's third-largest shipper of chicken meat, industry leaders said. Prasit Boondoungprasert, CEO of Charoen Pokphand Foods, Thailand's largest agribusiness, said the current market situation is favourable for the Thai poultry industry.

May 31 - WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT ( Hammersmith blog )

It was a short work week in the USA following the Monday holiday but the market still tried to do exciting things --- probably due to the everchanging tariff situation and the possible reciprocal tariffs from major grain/oilseed importing regions. At this time what may happen with the EU and China and reciprocal tariffs are in question ---- the USA doubling of the import tariff on steel and aluminum will exacerbate the situation with both China and the EU.

USA new crop corn prices dropped by about USD 5 to 6 m/t this week while US soybeans were down by USD 9 m/t and soymeal was almost unchanged on the week. US winter wheat prices were lower by USD 3 or 4 m/t but US spring wheat prices increased by USD 6 m/t.

US spring wheat was higher this week due to quality concerns on the current crop. Trade reports feel that soymeal prices will be moving higher as a result of some harvest delays in South America. Corn was seen being push lower by the very large South American corn crops.

Weather in the US is seen delaying some winter wheat harvests and some corn and soybean planting but the delays should be limited and short.

On the export sales side of things --- corn exports last week were at a good level but soybean exports moved lower. USA corn is still the most competitive in many import markets. Wheat exports were higher than the trade expected.

Next week will once more be a tariff driven market unless every country is just sitting back planning what to do for July deadlines. Perhaps it will be a quiet week --- probably not as we haven’t had a quiet week since February..

May 30 - India wheat, rice production to rise to record high, government says
India is likely to produce a record 117.5 million metric tons of wheat in the year ending June 2025, the farm ministry said, above its March forecast of 115.4 million tons, as higher prices prompted farmers to expand the area planted with high-yielding seed varieties. India, the world's biggest wheat producer after China, produced 113.3 million tons of wheat in 2024, the farm ministry said in a statement issued late on Wednesday. 

May 30 - Argentina wheat planting begins at a good pace
Wheat planting for the 2025/26 season started at a good pace in Argentina, supported by dry weather in the west and north of the country, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BdeC) said on Thursday. Argentina is a major world exporter of wheat and in recent weeks its farmers started sowing the cereal, with the BdeC projecting a planted area of 6.7 million hectares.

May 30 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
Crop 2024
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, grasses-worm @231$

- World
· The U.S. court blocked most of Trump's tariffs, recognizing the excess of presidential powers in the field of international trade.
· Thanks to the strong harvest, India will do without wheat imports this year, which can increase the pressure on world prices.
- Europe
· In 2025, Germany expects an increase in wheat harvest of 13.6% and winter rape of 5.6%, while winter barley harvest will decrease by 3.9%, spring barley - by 14.4%, and corn - by 6.2%.

- CORN
Prices for corn in the domestic market remain stable both for the old and for the new crop. Agrarians are cautious about forward sales. At the same time, liquidity is gradually declining - buyers complete purchases of the old corn crop and are already actively switching to trading early crops of the new season.
The old corn crop was traded in the range of 228-230 $/t on DAP ports, while the new crop - about 198-200 $/t DAP (October-November).

- WHEAT
The wheat market remains low - prices are stable, and trading activity is low. Demand for an old crop is limited, as most players are already focused on the new wheat. Agrarians refrain from sales, expecting more favorable conditions closer to the start of harvesting. The price spread between the old and the new crop is about $ 16-18 / t.

- SUNFLOWER
The purchasing activity in the sunflower market is weakening - some processors reduce purchases due to the preparation for the rape season, while others have already covered the needs for the coming period. Prices for the old crop are reduced. Additional pressure reduces the cost of sunflower oil in the world market, which increases the restraint of players.

- RAPESEED
The demand for rape of the new crop increased, which supported the rise in prices. Despite this, farmers remain passive - prevents uncertainty about the volume and quality of the future crop.

- SOYA
Trading activity in the domestic soybean market remains low, so prices have not undergone drastic changes. For GMO soybeans prices in ports of Odessa were 386-388$ under DAP conditions, for non-GMO - 420-425$ DAP.

May 29 - Forecast of Russian Wheat Exports in 2025/26 Upgraded (SovEkon)

SovEkon raised its forecast for wheat exports in 2025/26 by 1.1 million tons to 40.8 million tons. The first forecast for grain exports in the new season is 49.4 million tons against 50.2 million tons in the 24/25 season. Wheat exports are expected to be close to average, and the start of the export campaign may be sluggish.

Forecast of wheat export in the new season has been raised on the background of revised harvest forecast. In May 2025, the estimate of wheat harvest was increased by 1.2 million tons to 81.0 million tons (82.6 million tons in 2024) amid favorable weather conditions.

The export of barley is estimated at 2.7 million tons against 3.6 million tons, maize - in 3.0 million tons against 2.8 million tons.

The start of a new export campaign may be sluggish against the background of relatively high ruble prices and, possibly, mediocre harvest in the South, primarily due to the Rostov region.

An additional factor could be the historically low stocks at the end of the 24/25 season. According to Rosstat's calculations, as of May 1, wheat reserves in agricultural organizations amounted to 7.8 million tons, which is 31% lower than last year's figure and 6% lower than the average.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has published export forecasts for the 2025-26 season. Wheat exports are estimated at 45.0 million tons. A similar situation was observed last year: the initial forecast of the US Ministry of Agriculture was overly optimistic and was subsequently downgraded. In our view, the agency continues to seriously underestimate domestic consumption, which leads to a reassessment of export potential.

Despite the improved export forecast, the volume is significantly inferior to the 2022/23 and 2023/24 seasons, which, together with the active reduction in Russian reserves, will support global quotes

May 29 - US ruling that Trump tariffs are unlawful stirs relief and uncertainty

•     Trump administration has said it will appeal the court ruling
•     US dollar, banks, luxury, chipmakers lead gains
•     Analysts say even a pause provides valuable time

- A U.S. trade court ruling that blocked most of President Donald Trump's tariffs and found he had overstepped his authority triggered some relief on financial markets on Thursday, while adding to the uncertainties weighing on the global economy. Among the United States' big trading partners, in the throes of negotiation with the Trump administration, Germany said it could not comment, as did the European Commission.

The Reuters Tariff Watch newsletter is your daily guide to the latest global trade and tariff news.
"We ask for your understanding that we cannot comment on the legal proceedings in the U.S., as they are still ongoing," a spokesperson for Germany's economy ministry said.
"We continue to hope that a mutually beneficial solution can be reached in the negotiations between the EU Commission and the U.S. government."
Winners on financial markets included chip makers, banks, luxury stocks and auto industry, all hit hard by tariff-led disruptions.
The U.S. dollar rallied 0.2% against the yen and 0.3% against the Swiss franc as currencies and assets that have benefited from the tariff-induced market turmoil fell.

- Wall Street stock index futures rose by more than 1.5%
The trade court ruling on Wednesday dealt a blow to Trump's central policy of using tariffs to wring concessions from trading partners.
His administration immediately said it will appeal and analysts said investors will remain cautious as the White House explores its legal avenues.
Following a market revolt after Trump's major tariff announcement on April 2, the U.S. president paused most import duties for 90 days and said he would hammer out bilateral deals with trade partners. But apart from a pact with Britain this month, agreements remain elusive and the court's stay on the tariffs may dissuade countries like Japan from rushing into deals, analysts said.

- Another pause in Trump's stop-start trade policy could be helpful to opponents of his tariffs and to traders who relish volatility.
"Assuming that an appeal does not succeed in the next few days, the main win is time to prepare, and also a cap on the breadth of tariffs – which can’t exceed 15% for the time being," George Lagarias, chief economist at Forvis Mazars international advisers, said.

May 29 - Cold, dry weather to boost delayed soybean harvest in ArgentinaDry and cold weather conditions expected in the coming days will help dry out Argentina's agricultural fields, allowing producers to intensify their delayed soybean harvest following repeated rains, the Buenos Aires and Rosario stock exchanges said on Wednesday. Argentina is the world's largest exporter of soybean oil and meal, but heavy rainfall in key farming regions has stalled the oilseed harvest, raising concerns about potential yield losses. The government estimates the 2024/25 soybean crop at 49 million metric tons. 

May 28 - India's soybean acreage to shrink as farmers favour corn, sugar cane
Soybean acreage in India is likely to fall this year as corn and sugar cane could replace it in some areas after these crops gave higher returns to farmers than the oilseed, farmers and industry officials told Reuters. Soybean is India's main summer-sown oilseed crop and lower output will force the world's biggest importer of edible oils to increase overseas buying of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil. 

May 28 - USDA's US corn, spring wheat ratings fall below expectations
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday rated 68% of the U.S. corn crop as good to excellent in its first condition ratings for the 2025 crop, below the average estimate of 73% in a Reuters analyst poll. Pre-report trade estimates from 14 analysts surveyed by Reuters had ranged from 64% to 78% good to excellent. The United States is the world's largest exporter of corn, used primarily for animal feed and ethanol fuel.

May 27 - Weak Chinese demand leaves Australia with too much wheat
Australian wheat inventories will likely be much higher than last year at the end of the season, pressuring prices, because of a drop in Chinese imports and competition from ample supplies out of rival exporter Russia, analysts and traders said. A fire sale of stored grain may be necessary to clear space before the new wheat harvest in the last quarter of the year, which would weigh on benchmark Chicago futures already trading near their lowest since 2020 because of abundant global supply.  

May 27 - Adequate moisture offsets rainfall deficit for Ivory Coast's cocoa crop, farmers say
Sufficient moisture levels in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa growing regions boosted the development of the April-to-September mid-crop, despite below-average rainfall last week, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is in its rainy season which runs officially from April to mid-November, when rains are abundant and often heavy.

May 26 - Argentina wheat harvest could tick up on favorable weather, soil conditions
The 2025/26 wheat harvest could be the second-best on record, the Rosario grains exchange said in a report on Friday, given favorable weather forecasts and excellent soil conditions for planting. That will allow farmers to widen their planting area to 7.2 million hectares (17.8 million acres), the exchange said, which could yield a larger harvest of 21.2 million metric tons. The exchange currently forecasts a harvest of 21 million tons. 

May 26 - Brazil state says it rules out bird flu in commercial flock
Brazil's Santa Catarina state said it has ruled out an outbreak of bird flu in a commercial chicken farm while the federal government was keeping it on a list of suspected cases pending further tests. In a statement late on Thursday, the state cited laboratory test results for its conclusion but noted additional tests are required.

May 26 - Taiwan's MFIG tenders to buy up to 65,000 tons of corn
Taiwan's MFIG purchasing group has issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Argentina, Brazil or South Africa, European traders said on Friday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Wednesday May 28, they said.

May 24 - FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES (Hammersmith Reports)

- Fishing in the North/Central region was not quite so good this week due to mini-bans caused by high juvenile levels ---- fishing was still at 148,000 m/t making the total landings now at 1.58 million m/t and leaving 1.42 mm/t on the quota. Mini-bans are expected to continue in the North/Central region. Landings in the South region were only at 4,300 m/t bringing the total to 195,000 m/t with 56,000 m/t left on the quota.

- The IFFO conference in Madrid was reported to have been very good and there seemed to have been quite a bit of new business done during the conference according to trade reports. As usual, China is the main buyer and still seem interested in buying more. Sales to date from Peru look to be about 470,000 m/t – which could be as much as 66% of total production at full quota.

- At this point everyone still seems to feel that the total quota will be landed which will make 2025 a very good year so far.

May 23 - Trump renews trade threats, taking aim at European Union, Apple

•     Trump threatens 25% tariff on non-US made iPhones
•     Markets react negatively, S&P 500 down 0.9% at open
•     Apple plans to shift manufacturing to India by 2026
•     Apple's planned US investments do not include iPhone production

- U.S. President Donald Trump threatened on Friday to ratchet up his trade war once again, pushing for a 50% tariff on European Union goods starting June 1 and warning Apple , opens new tab he may slap a 25% levy on all iPhones bought by U.S. consumers.
The twin threats, delivered via social media, roiled global markets after weeks of de-escalation had provided some reprieve. The S&P 500 fell 1% in early trading, the Nasdaq fell 1.2%, and European shares fell 1.5%.

- Trump's broadside against the EU was prompted by the White House's belief that negotiations with the bloc are not progressing fast enough. But his saber-rattling also marked a return to Washington's stop-and-start trade war that has shaken markets, businesses and consumers and raised fears of a global economic downturn.

- The president's attack on Apple, meanwhile, is his latest attempt to pressure a specific company to move production to the United States, following automakers, pharmaceutical companies and chipmakers. However, the United States does not produce any smartphones - even as U.S. consumers buy more than 60 million phones annually - and moving production would likely increase the cost of iPhones by hundreds of dollars."All the optimism over trade deals wiped out in minutes – seconds, even," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, in a note.U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Friday that the 50% EU threat will hopefully "light a fire under the EU," adding that other countries have been negotiating with Washington in good faith.

"The European Union, which was formed for the primary purpose of taking advantage of the United States on TRADE, has been very difficult to deal with," Trump wrote on his Truth Social site.

"Our discussions with them are going nowhere!"- The European Commission on Friday declined to comment on the new threat, saying it would wait for a phone call between EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic and his U.S. counterpart Jamieson Greer scheduled for Friday. Envoys from the 27 EU countries are also due to meet on trade in Brussels later in the day.Speaking to reporters in The Hague, Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof said he agreed with the EU's strategy in trade talks with the United States, and said the EU would likely to see this latest announcement as part of the negotiations."We have seen before that tariffs can go up and down in talks with the US," he said.The White House paused most of the punishing tariffs Trump announced in early April against nearly every country in the world after investors furiously sold off U.S. assets including government bonds and the U.S. dollar. He left in place a 10% baseline tax on most imports, and later reduced his massive 145% tax on Chinese goods to 30%."My base case is that they are able to reach an agreement, but I am most nervous about negotiations with European Union," said Nathan Sheets, global chief economist at Citigroup in New York.

- A 50% levy on EU imports could raise consumer prices on everything from German cars to Italian olive oil.EU's total exports to the United States last year totaled about 500 billion euros ($566 billion), led by Germany (161 billion euros), Ireland (72 billion euros) and Italy (65 billion euros). Pharmaceuticals, cars and auto parts, chemicals and aircraft were among the largest exports, according to EU data.The White House has been in trade negotiations with numerous countries, but progress has been unsteady. Finance leaders from the Group of Seven industrialized democracies tried to downplay disputes over the tariffs earlier in the week at a forum in the Canadian Rocky Mountains."The EU is one of Trump's least favorite regions, and he does not seem to have good relations with its leaders, which increases the chance of a prolonged trade war between the two," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.Shares in Germany carmakers and luxury companies, some of the most exposed to tariffs, fell on the threats.Volvo Cars CEO Hakan Samuelsson told Reuters on Friday that customers would have to pay a large part of tariff-related cost increases, and that it could become impossible to import the company's smallest cars to the United States.- But he remained hopeful that Europe and the United States will soon come to an agreement."It could not be in the interest of Europe or the U.S. to shut down trade between them," Samuelsson said.Apple declined to comment on

- Trump's threat, which would reverse exclusions he granted on smartphones and other electronics imported largely from China, in a break for Big Tech firms that sell consumer goods. Shares fell 2.5% in Friday trading."I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhones that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else," Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Friday, referring to the Apple CEO, without additional details.

- Any effort to impose a tariff on Apple alone would likely face legal hurdles, according to experts."There's no clear legal authority that permits company specific tariffs, but the Trump administration may try to shoehorn it under its emergency power authorities," said Sally Stewart Liang, a partner at Akin Gump in Washington. Company-specific tariffs would require long investigations, such as those on anti-dumping, Liang said.Apple is speeding up plans to make most iPhones sold in the United States at factories in India by the end of 2026 to navigate potentially higher tariffs in China.But the odds on moving production to the U.S. are slimmer. In February, Apple said it will spend $500 billion over four years in nine American states, but that investment was not intended to bring iPhone manufacturing to the U.S."It is hard to imagine that Apple can be fully compliant with this request from the president in the next 3-5 years," D.A. Davidson & Co analyst Gil Luria said.

May 23 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
Crop 2024
· DAP corn Odessa, Ukraine, grasses-worm @.
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine Jun @1'107$

- Ukraine
· As of 22.05, Ukraine had sown wheat - 215.3 thousand hectares, barley - 743.6 thousand hectares, corn - 3758.2 thousand hectares, sunflower - 4350.5 thousand hectares, soybeans - 2025.0 thousand hectares.
· The European Commission recognized Ukraine as a country with a low risk of deforestation and human rights violations in the production of raw materials.

- Europe
· Import to the EU from 01.07 to 18.05:
- Corn - 17.7 million tons (+8% y/y). Ukraine's share - 56.9%, Brazil's share - 9% (was 69% and 17%). The U.S. rose to 20% (from 0.7%).
- Wheat - 7 million tons (-16%). Ukraine - 62.5% (4.4 million tons), Canada - 14% (1 million tons).
- Soya - 12.5 million tons (+7%). TOP-3: USA - 46% (5.7 million tons), Brazil - 37% (4.6 million tons), Ukraine - 11% (1.4 million tons).
- Rape - 6.3 million tons (+24%). Ukraine lost leadership. TOP-3: Australia - 45% (2.8 million tons), Ukraine - 38% (2.4 million tons), Canada - 11% (0.7 million tons).

- CORN
Prices for corn of the old crop remain stable in all directions. Stock quotes have increased due to active exports from the United States. The devaluation of the dollar also supports prices. The rapid completion of sowing in the USA and Ukraine creates an optimistic start to the season. Europe is actively trading crops for the period January-May, demonstrating confidence in liquidity. The Ukrainian manufacturer is still restrained in sales of the new crop.

- WHEAT
In the wheat market, no significant changes: prices fluctuate within a narrow range, and the spread between the old and the new crop is reduced due to lower prices for the old crop. The growth of exchange quotations is perceived as a technical correction, not related to the physical market. Global demand is weak. Manufacturers are restrained in sales - waiting for the harvest of a new crop.

- SUNFLOWER
The activity in the sunflower market is low - part of the processors are preparing for the rape season, reconfiguring and cleaning the warehouses.

- RAPESEED
Prices for a new crop of rapeseed start at a good level, but do not stimulate active sales - some areas had to be replanted due to spring frosts.

- SOYA
Prices for soybeans are stable, with a slight strengthening in July-August. The spread between the old and new crops is $10-20 in favor of the old harvest.

May 23 - Where's the beef? Argentine steak exports slide as strong peso inflates costs
In the Villarroel meat plant outside Buenos Aires, workers skillfully butcher cuts of Argentine beef, popular with restaurants from Shanghai to New York. But the country's steak exports are now sliding as costs rise on a stronger local peso. In the first four months of the year, beef exports fell nearly 20% year-on-year to around 255,000 tons, according to government agency Senasa. Shipments to price-sensitive top buyer China plunged to 137,000 tons from 203,000 tons a year earlier.

May 23 - Pigs can't fly: US high-end livestock breeders lose millions in China tariff fallout
Dr. Mike Lemmon's pigs, each valued between $2,500 and $5,000, were supposed to be on a plane bound for Hangzhou, China, from St. Louis in April, where’d they spend the flight snoring, play fighting and snacking on oats and husked corn before taking up residence at Chinese hog farms. Instead, many went to a local Indiana slaughterhouse for less than $200 each after the Chinese buyer canceled the order within a week of China implementing retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. in April.

May 23 - Russia removes minimum wheat price recommendation for grain export traders, sources say
Russia, the world's biggest wheat exporter, has removed a minimum wheat price recommendation for its grain export traders until the end of the export season on July 1, four market sources told Reuters. The initial minimum price recommendation for May and June had been $250 dollars a metric ton, the sources said.

May 23 - Jordan tenders to buy up to 120,000 tons of feed barley, traders say
Jordan's state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. The deadline for price offers is May 28. Shipment is sought in a series of possible combinations in consignments of 50,000 to 60,000 tons for September 1-15, September 16-30, October 1-15 and October 16-31.

May 22 - Dry weather to bring relief to Argentina's soggy farmlands
Dry weather conditions in the coming days will help air out Argentina's muddy fields, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Wednesday, after heavy storms flooded the already behind-schedule soybean crop. Fierce rains washed out the north of Buenos Aires province at the end of last week, with the exchange warning that it may need to cut its estimates for the soybean harvest. Argentina is the world's largest exporter of soybean oil and meal.

May 22 - In food inflation-hit Brazil, bird flu may offer some relief
Poultry trade bans triggered by a bird flu outbreak in Brazil may weigh on domestic chicken prices, offering some relief - if even short-lived - from the food inflation that has undermined the government's popularity, analysts said.  Brazil, the world's largest poultry exporter, ships about a third of its chicken meat abroad, industry group ABPA said. And Rio Grande do Sul, where the first outbreak was identified, accounted for about 12% of chickens slaughtered last year, according to government data.

May 22 - Algeria issues new tender to buy up to 80,000 metric tons of corn, traders say
Algerian state agency ONAB has issued a new international tender to purchase up to 80,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is also Wednesday, May 21, they said.

May 22 - EU 2024/25 soybean imports up 7% by May 18, rapeseed up 24%
European Union soybean imports for the 2024/25 season that began in July reached 12.46 million metric tons by May 18, up 7% from the same period a year earlier, European Commission data showed on Tuesday. EU rapeseed imports in the same period were 6.28 million tons, up 24% year on year, while soymeal imports rose by 25% to 16.82 million tons.

May 21 - Argentina extends tax break to wheat exports, rules out soy and corn
Argentina will extend a tax break on exports of one staple crop, wheat, while ruling out additional relief for other key grains shipments, Economy Minister Luis Caputo said on Tuesday. Farmers and exporting firms had been calling for the measure, which was set to expire at the end of June, to be extended.  

May 21 - EU 2024/25 soft wheat exports at 18.45 million tons by May 18
European Union soft wheat exports since the start of the 2024/25 season in July had reached 18.45 million metric tons by May 18, up from 18.26 million a week earlier, and down 34% YEAR ON year, European Commission data showed on Tuesday. A breakdown of this season's volumes showed Romania was still the largest EU soft wheat exporter with 4.96 million tons exported so far, followed by Lithuania with 2.45 million tons, Germany with 2.36 million tons, Latvia with 2.09 million tons and France with 2.05 million tons.

May 21 - SovEkon published its first forecast of grain harvest in 2025

SovEkon published the first forecast of the Russian grain harvest in 2025, which analysts of the center estimated at 127.6 million tons compared to 125.9 million tons a year earlier. Harvest of cereals and pulses in general will increase against the expected increase in barley, maize and other crops, which will compensate for the expected decrease in wheat yield.

Estimates of wheat harvest in 2025 were increased by 1.2 million tons to 81.0 million tons (82.6 million tons in 2024). The main factor behind the improved wheat forecast is improved weather conditions in recent weeks. However, the current weather conditions are unlikely to fully compensate for the problems faced by winter wheat last year and in the first half of this spring.

Barley harvest in 2025 is estimated at 17.4 million tons against 16.7 million tons a year ago, maize - 14.6 million tons against 14.0 million tons. Harvest of cereals and pulses in general will increase against the expected growth of barley, maize and other crops, which compensates for the expected decrease in wheat harvest.

The total area under cereals will fall for the second year in a row, to 45.7m ha against 46.1m ha. Agricultural producers are shrinking their acreage amid export duties and falling profitability. An additional factor is the expected switch from cereals to oilseeds, the cultivation of which remains more profitable.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture published its first forecast of cereal production in 2025/26. Wheat production is estimated at 83.0 million tons (excluding Crimea), barley production - in 18.0 million tons, corn - in 15.0 million tons. In 2024, 0.9 million tons of wheat were harvested in the Crimea.

Weather permitting, wheat and cereal harvesting forecast could be raised. But growing optimism about a new crop seems premature.

May 21 - Weather set to hit harvest in Russia's largest grain region
High temperatures and a lack of rain over the coming months are expected to deplete the harvest in Russia's largest grain region Rostov, the head of the local grain lobby group said after a farming emergency was declared. Rostov Governor Yuri Slyusar issued a decree on May 19 introducing the state of emergency for farming after spring frosts and ordered local authorities to evaluate the damage.  

May 20 - Argentina's soy crop could face 'significant losses' after storms
Argentina's 2024/25 soybean crop could suffer "significant losses" in northwestern Buenos Aires province due to the impact of recent heavy storms, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Monday, indicating it may be forced to trim its outlook. The exchange currently estimates a soybean crop at a decent 50 million metric tons, but said in its report that the heavy rains could further delay the already slow harvest of the grain and cause damage to the plants.  

May 20 - USDA says corn crop 78% planted, soy 66%; wheat ratings dip
U.S. farmers had planted 78% of the nation's corn crop by Sunday, below an average of analysts' expectations but ahead of the five-year average for this time of year of 73%, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a weekly crop report on Monday. Soybean planting was 66% complete, ahead of the five-year average of 53% and slightly higher than most analysts' predictions.

May 19 - Brazil farmers, officials step up controls where bird flu was found on commercial farm
Officials and chicken farmers in Brazil have stepped up sanitary controls close to where the country's first case of avian influenza was found on a commercial farm, while racing to track the virus to stop its spread. Brazil is the world's largest chicken exporter. News on Friday of the first case of highly pathogenic avian influenza found on a commercial farm in Montenegro, in Rio Grande do Sul state, triggered trade bans for Brazilian chicken by China and the European Union, as well as fellow Latin American countries Mexico and Argentina, among others.  

May 19 - Russian harvester maker suspends production as demand from farmers collapses
Russia's largest maker of combine harvesters and tractors, Rostselmash, said on Friday the demand for its machines has collapsed, forcing it to suspend production from June and cut costs, since farmers have no money to buy new equipment. Rostselmash said it will send all its workers on mandatory leave starting in June, before the harvesting season begins, moving the leave forward from August and September as in previous years.

May 16 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
Crop 2024
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, grasses-worm @232$
· Soybean non-GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine May @...
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine May-Jun @1'120$

- Ukraine
· USDA published the forecast for the production of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2025/26 MY: wheat - 23 million tons (season 24/25 - 23.4 million tons), corn - 30.5 million tons (26.8 million tons), barley - 5.7 million tons (5.8 million tons), soybeans - 6.6 million tons (7 million tons), sunflower - 14.4 million tons (13 million tons), rape - 3.7 million tons (3.8 million tons).
· As of 15.05 in Ukraine were sown: spring wheat - 215.2 thousand hectares, spring barley - 743.1 thousand hectares, corn - 3499.9 thousand hectares, sunflower - 3919.3 thousand hectares, soybeans - 1732.2 thousand hectares.
- World
· The United States and China have signed a 90-day trade truce, within which Washington will reduce tariffs from 145% to 30%, and Beijing - from 125% to 10%.

- CORN
The decline in the activity of Ukrainian traders, who previously formed sufficient stocks, as well as weak trading activity on the part of buyers on the foreign market, continue to put pressure on the domestic market. As a result, the price of corn continued to decline. The old harvest in the ports of Odessa fell to 228-232 $/t DAP.
The new crop was traded at 200-202 $/t DAP. The spread between them remains at a fairly high level - about $ 30/t.
However, a sharp drop in prices led to a reduction in supply - farmers began to restrain sales, which may limit further price decline.

- WHEAT
In the domestic market of Ukraine, the main driver of demand for wheat of the old crop are processors. They maintain stable purchasing activity and offer a premium for deliveries directly to factories compared to port prices.
At the same time, in the ports of Odessa, prices for the old harvest continue to decline against the background of limited demand from traders, who are increasingly reorienting themselves to the new harvest.

- SUNFLOWER
The market is in a state of uncertainty. Farmers refrain from concluding forward contracts for new crop sunflowers due to weather risks and lack of price incentives. Refiners, waiting for production growth in the new season, are not in a hurry to raise prices and refrain from active purchases. The new sunflower crop is traded in the range of 530-540 $/t with VAT, depending on the oil content and delivery region.
The premium on the high oleic segment is reduced - the spread has already decreased from 100$ a month ago to 50$.

- RAPESEED
Rape of the new crop was traded at 505-510 $/t on the basis of DAP ports. Farmers continue to refrain from actively concluding forward contracts due to weather risks and concerns about the condition of crops, despite the preservation of high demand.

- SOYA
American and Brazilian soybeans continue to enter the market, maintaining a high supply and pressure on prices. In such conditions, buyers see no reason to increase purchase prices, which limits the possibilities of Ukrainian exporters.

May 16 - Argentina's soy farmers race ahead with harvest to beat the rains
On Cristian Giacobone's farm in the heart of Argentina's Pampas plains, workers in the soy fields have been up since dawn, racing to harvest the rain-delayed crop before the arrival of new storms that will make threshing more difficult. The soy crop, the main export of the South American country's embattled economy, has been delayed by unusually strong rains, weighing on sales of the oilseed that are running at the slowest pace in some 11 years. 

May 16 - Some Brazil sugar mills weighing switch to ethanol
Some sugarcane processors in Brazil are closely following the price gap between sugar and ethanol and could start making more of the biofuel if sugar prices continue to fall and oil prices continue their recovery from recent lows. The possible switch in production strategy was a major topic at an annual sugar market meeting in New York this week.

May 15 - Southwest Kansas wheat yield estimated above average, crop tour shows
Crop scouts on Wednesday, the second day of an annual three-day tour of Kansas, projected an average yield for hard red winter wheat in the southwestern portion of the state at 53.3 bushels per acre (bpa), up from 42.4 bpa in 2024. The Wheat Quality Council tour's five-year average for the same area from 2019-2024 was 42.3 bushels per acre. No tour was held in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

May 15 - Brazil corn output forecast at 125 mln metric tons, association president says
Brazil's corn output is forecast to hit around 125 million metric tons in the 2024/25 crop, Paulo Bertolini, president of Abramilho, the Brazilian Association of Corn and Sorghum Producers, said on Wednesday, adding that the ethanol industry's consumption of corn could soon more than double. "Corn ethanol is already consuming around 20 million tons of corn this year and has a tendency and a possibility of consuming more than double that in a short period of time," Bertolini told Reuters on the sidelines of Abramilho's third congress in Brasilia.

May 14 - US farmers say Brazil keeps edge in China's soy market despite trade truce
A surprising tariff pause between Beijing and Washington will not help U.S. farmers revive soy sales in China without additional concessions, producers said, because top-supplier Brazil still has a competitive price advantage. Under the truce announced on Monday, the United States will cut extra tariffs it imposed on Chinese imports to 30% from 145% for the next three months, while Chinese duties on U.S. imports will fall to 10% from 125%. 

May 14 - Frost and drought hit grain and oilseed crops in southern Ukraine, forecasters say
Weather conditions in early May were mostly satisfactory for Ukrainian grain fields, but frost and drought in southern regions have damaged or killed some winter wheat, peas, rapeseed and barley crops, state weather forecasters said on Tuesday. APK-Inform agriculture consultancy quoted forecasters as saying that frost on the soil surface and in the air was a "dangerous phenomenon" that caused damage to fruit, vegetables and vineyards, as well as winter rapeseed and spring barley crops.

May 13 - Global sugar market swinging from deficit to small surplus, says Dreyfus
The sugar market will switch from a large deficit of 5.2 million metric tons in 2024/25 to a small surplus of 400,000 tons in 2025/26, with higher output in India offsetting a smaller crop in Brazil, commodities trader Louis Dreyfus said on Monday. Brazil's start of the crop is "very concerning", considering both agricultural yields and sugar content on cane, the commodities trader said in a presentation on the first day of New York Sugar Week.  

May 13 - World corn supplies set for 12-year lows despite massive US crop: Braun
U.S. farmers are poised to reap a record corn crop in the upcoming 2025-26 cycle. Additionally, combined output among key corn exporters in South America is also slated for an all-time high in 2025-26. But the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts global corn ending stocks to fall to 12-year lows in 2025-26 as demand continues its robust pace. This means that the strong U.S. crop expectations need to come to fruition to prevent a further slippage in supplies.

May 12 - Ukraine 2025 spring grain sowing 76% complete, ministry says
Ukrainian farmers had sown 4.23 million hectares of grain as of May 8, or 76% of the expected area, almost the same acreage as was sown at the same date last year, the agriculture ministry said on Friday. The area included 733,400 hectares of spring barley, 212,600 hectares of spring wheat, 2.9 million hectares of corn, 209,000 hectares of peas and 157,000 hectares of oats and some other cereals, the ministry said. 

May 12 - US suspends Mexican cattle, horse and bison imports over screwworm pest
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins on Sunday said she is suspending imports of live cattle, horses and bison through the southern U.S. border over the damaging pest New World screwworm, a measure that immediately drew opposition from Mexico. "I am announcing the suspension of live cattle, horse, & bison imports through U.S. southern border ports of entry effective immediately," Rollins said.

May 09 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
Crop 2024
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, May @245$
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine May @1'118$

- Ukraine
· As of 08.05 in Ukraine were sown: spring wheat - 212.6 thousand hectares, spring barley - 733.4 thousand hectares, corn - 2921.8 thousand hectares, sunflower - 3508.2 thousand hectares, soybeans - 1347 thousand hectares.
- World
· The United States and the United Kingdom have announced a trade agreement to reduce tariffs.
· Talks between the United States and China expected this week could ease trade tensions between the countries.
· China resumes imports of Brazilian soybeans from 5 companies after suspension due to phytosanitary violations amid efforts to reduce dependence on the United States. Among them are the world giants Cargill, ADM and Olam.

- CORN
In the Ukrainian market, prices for old corn harvest have been reduced due to a decrease in the activity of purchases by traders. Most buyers have already formed the necessary volumes of stocks, which led to a weakening of demand and, accordingly, to the correction of prices. Additionally, it was influenced by the fact that Ukrainian corn is too expensive in the world market, which makes it difficult for it to compete with other origins, such as American or Brazilian.
In the ports of Odessa, over the last week, corn of the old crop fell on average by 4-5$ and was traded in the range of 236-238 $/t on DAP terms.
Prices for new crop corn also decreased and were traded at 200-202 $/t DAP.

- WHEAT
The wheat of the old crop gradually loses its relevance, which presses on prices. The most significant drop is observed in ports against the background of weak export activity. By contrast, processors reduce prices more slowly, so producers are more willing to sell to local buyers.
Prices for wheat of the new crop have undergone a slight decrease. Wheat of 11.5% was traded at 210-212 $/t under DAP ports with delivery in July-August, feed - 198-200 $/t DAP.

- SUNFLOWER
Sunflower prices in the domestic market continue to decline against the background of weakening demand from processors. Over the past week, the cost of sunflower decreased by an average of 400-600 UAH/t.
Some of the plants have already supplied themselves with raw materials by the end of the month, while others reorient the capacity for processing rape. This reduces interest in sunflower purchases and increases the pressure on prices.

- RAPESEED
The expected decline in rapeseed production in Ukraine remains a key factor in the formation of the new crop market. As a result, prices rose to 505-510 $/t DAP ports.

- SOYA
Prices for non-GMO soybeans are increasing against the background of increased demand, while interest in GMOs remains limited. In the ports of Odessa, the cost of soybeans with GMOs is 390-392 $/t DAP, while non-GMO products are traded at 440-445 $/t DAP.

May 09 - China's April soybean imports hit decade-low as customs delays disrupt trade
China's soybean imports plunged to a 10-year low in April as prolonged customs clearance delays and late Brazilian shipments caused by harvest slowdowns and logistics issues disrupted the usual flow of cargoes, traders and analysts say. Total imports for the month reached 6.08 million metric tons, down 29.1% from the same period last year, marking the lowest level since 2015, according to Reuters calculations based on data from the General Administration of Customs. 

May 09 - Argentina grains exchange edges up soy harvest forecast on better yields
Argentina's Buenos Aires grains exchange on Thursday edged up its forecast for the 2024/25 soybean harvest to 50 million metric tons, up from a prior forecast of 48.6 million tons, saying yields are proving better than previously expected. Argentine farmers have now harvested around half of the early batch of soybeans and reported higher-than-expected yields in the South American country's agricultural heartlands and Cordoba province, the exchange said in a weekly crop report.

May 08 - Uganda's 2024/25 crop year coffee exports to jump 27%, industry body says
Ugandan coffee exports in the crop year to September 30 are expected to jump 27% from the previous period, helped by maturing trees on newly planted acreage and favourable prices on the global market, an industry body said on Wednesday. The East African country, which mostly cultivates robusta beans, is Africa's largest exporter of coffee and relies on the crop as a major source of foreign exchange.  

May 08 - Palm oil prices to hit 2-year low at 3,500 ringgit/T in June-November, analyst Mistry says
Malaysian palm oil futures are likely to extend their decline and trade near a two-year low of 3,500 ringgit per metric ton from June to November as recovery in production leads to a stock build, industry analyst Dorab Mistry said on Wednesday. Palm oil production usually rises in top two producers Indonesia and Malaysia in the second half of the year.

May 07 - Global rice prices have hit a floor, but India's supply glut will smother any gains
Global rice prices, which have tumbled to multi-year lows, are unlikely to fall further with top exporter India's currency firming, but bulging Indian stockpiles and a bumper Asian crop will cap any rebound this year, industry executives say. While lower rice prices will benefit price-sensitive consumers in Africa and other regions, they are likely to further squeeze the already meagre earnings of farmers across Asia, which produces nearly 90% of the world's rice. 

May 07 - Argentina's soy harvest stalls after rains, meteorologist says
Argentina's already-delayed soy harvest has stalled further, a meteorologist said on Tuesday, following heavy rains and high humidity in the nation's main agricultural regions. Harvesting in Argentina, the world's largest exporter of soybean oil and meal, had already fallen behind after rains in March and early April.

May 06 - Frost, drought in April were negative for Ukraine's spring crops, forecasters say
Strong and prolonged frosts followed by unusually high temperatures and a lack of precipitation in April all had a negative impact on the development of Ukrainian spring crops, state forecasters said on Monday. Frosts in early April covered most of Ukraine and temperatures dropped to minus 11 degrees Celsius for up to 7 hours, APK-Inform agriculture consultancy quoted forecasters as saying. 

May 06 - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers expect an uptick in harvesting after above-average rains
Above-average rains in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa growing regions last week will help the development of young pods and boost output for the April-to-September mid-crop, farmers said on Monday. The world's top cocoa producer is in its rainy season, which officially runs from April to mid-November when rains are abundant and often heavy.

May 05 - Bunge's $34 billion Viterra merger stalled by US-China trade rift, Bloomberg reports
Bunge Global's $34 billion merger with Glencore-backed Viterra is being stalled by trade tensions between the United States and China, Bloomberg News reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. "We are in the final stage of regulatory approval. We express our continued gratitude for the constructive dialogue with Chinese government officials throughout the regulatory review process," Bunge and Viterra said in separate emailed responses to Reuters. 

May 05 - South Korea exempts some Brazilian pork imports from tariffs, lobby says
Brazil's meat lobby group ABPA said on Friday that South Korea had exempted certain Brazilian pork imports from tariffs, citing information sent by Brazil's agriculture ministry. ABPA said in a statement that the exemption was valid for up to 10,000 metric tons of frozen pork meat, barring pork belly.

May 02 - Ukraine Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
Crop 2024
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, May @243$
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, May @395$
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine May-Jun @1'130$

- Ukraine
· Exports from Ukraine of cereals, oilseeds and their products in April amounted to: corn - 1 567 thousand tons, wheat - 771.1 thousand tons, barley - 47.2 thousand tons, soybeans 330.2 - thousand tons, rape - 84.3 thousand tons, sunflower - 1 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 478.2 thousand tons, soybean oil - 45.2 thousand tons, cake (soybean and sunflower) - 423 thousand tons.
- World
· CME Group on June 2 launches a new futures contract for Black Sea wheat tied to export prices in Romania and Bulgaria.
· Turkey has announced a duty-free import quota of 1 million tons of corn, which will be in force until the end of July.

- CORN
The exotic demand for corn has completely exposed the context and conditions of the corn market, making it more expensive even for food wheat. Prices with delivery in May traded at levels 239-243 $/t DAP ports.
The new crop is traded at 205-208 $/t DAP ports (October-December).
At the same time, the spread between the old and the new crop remains at a high level - $ 35, which only emphasizes the price imbalance of the market.

- WHEAT
Seasonal slowdown in trade puts pressure on the market of old-harvest wheat. However, due to the limited stocks of high-protein wheat, food grain prices decrease more slowly compared to forage.
Wheat of the new crop with 11.5% protein was traded at 212-214 $/t at DAP ports with delivery in July-August, feed wheat - 201-203 $/t DAP.
Market participants are focused on weather conditions - if there is not enough rainfall in the near future, it can adversely affect the condition of crops and cause prices to rise. The level of soil moisture remains insufficient, especially in the southern regions of Ukraine.

- SUNFLOWER
The decline in trade activity of European buyers in combination with the fall in world prices for sunflower oil caused a decrease in the cost of sunflower in the domestic market of Ukraine. Additional pressure is exerted by high supply from producers who actively implement crop residues.
On the western border, sunflower oil was traded $ 1,135-1,150 / t DAP with delivery in May. In the ports of Odessa, the price range was 1130-1140 $/t DAP.

- RAPESEED
Ukrainian farmers refrain from concluding forward contracts for new crops for rape due to weather risks - spring frosts and moisture deficiency have already limited the yield potential in the country. Against this background, manufacturers expect higher prices and plan to sell rapeseed after collection.

- SOYA
The growth of demand from processors has supported the price of soybeans. Against the background of low purchase prices in ports, their offers look more attractive, so farmers are more willing to sell to the domestic market.

May 02 - Chicago corn still chasing 50-year streak as prices stagnate: Braun
U.S. farmers are now in the thick of corn-planting, a period usually filled with anticipation for the upcoming harvest potential. But the markets may not be bringing much joy to producers given that new-crop Chicago corn futures started May on the lowest note in five years.

May 02 - Ukraine 2025 sunflower sowing area seen rising 5%, farm lobby says
Ukraine, the world's largest sunflower oil exporter, is likely to increase its sunflower sowing area by 5% in 2025 to around 5.1 million hectares, Ukrainian farm lobby UCAB said late on Wednesday. The Ukrainian sunflower seed harvest fell 13% in 2024 due to poor weather, pushing local sunseed prices to record high levels.

May 02 - Ukraine farm exports fall 23% in April month on month, farm lobby says
Ukraine's agricultural exports fell by 23.4% in April from a month earlier to 4.1 million metric tons, after increasing by almost 10% in March, Ukrainian farm lobby UCAB said on Thursday. Ukraine is a major grain and oilseeds grower and exporter.

May 01 - Europe's wheat crop in good shape but dry north a risk
Wheat crops in Europe are mostly in good condition, keeping the region on course for a rebound from last year's rain-hit harvest despite lingering concerns about dryness in northern areas, analysts said. Last week the European Commission left its forecast almost unchanged for this year's main wheat crop in the European Union, still projecting a 13% jump in production from a 12-year low in 2024.

May 01 - US farm agency to require DOGE approval for some loans
Farm loan employees at the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Farm Service Agency will now need approval from billionaire Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency to issue loans over $500,000, according to a memo seen by Reuters on Wednesday. DOGE has led President Donald Trump's effort to slash the federal workforce and cut spending.

May 01 - Argentina soybeans farmers notch biggest sales day of 2025
Argentina has recorded its largest single-day sales volumes for soybean so far in 2025, the country's Rosario grain exchange said on Wednesday, as the key grain transactions pick up after hitting their slowest pace in over a decade. Farmers in the South American agricultural powerhouse sold 230,000 metric tons of soybeans on Tuesday, the exchange said, after harvest delays caused by heavy rainfall and uncertainty over industry policies and exchange rates brought trading to its slowest pace in 11 years.

May 01 - South Korea’s NOFI buys about 65,000 T feed wheat, traders say
Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. purchased about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said. It was bought in one consignment at an estimated $254.27 a ton cost and freight included, plus a $1.50 a ton surcharge for additional port unloading.

Apr 30 - China's reliance on soybean imports continues despite cutback plans: Braun
China wants to reduce reliance on foreign soybeans, but importers apparently didn’t get the memo. To curb imports and increase national food security, the world’s top soybean buyer in recent years says it has made sizable cuts to soybean meal’s use in livestock feed.

Apr 30 - Jordan buys estimated 60,000 T wheat in tender, traders say
Jordan's state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, traders said. It was believed to have been bought from trading house Al Dahra at an estimated $259.99 a ton cost and freight included for shipment in the second half of September, they said.

Apr 30 - South Korea’s MFG buys about 66,000 T corn, traders say
South Korea's Major Feedmill Group purchased an estimated 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced optionally from the United States, South America or South Africa in an international tender on Tuesday, European traders said. One consignment was bought at an estimated $252.33 a ton cost and freight plus an additional $1.50 a ton surcharge for additional port unloading.

Apr 29 - US and Mexico reach agreement on screwworm, Ag Secretary Rollins says
The United States and Mexico reached an agreement on the handling of a damaging pest called New World screwworm, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Monday, after she threatened to limit cattle imports from south of the border. Screwworm can infest livestock, wildlife and in rare cases, people. Maggots from screwworm flies burrow into the skin of living animals, causing serious and often fatal damage.

Apr 29 - China's Zhoushan port to see 48% jump in Brazilian soybean ships in April, state media reports
Around 40 Brazilian soybean ships are expected to have docked at China's Zhoushan port in April, up 48% from last year, a social media account affiliated with the state broadcaster reported on Monday, as China shuns U.S. suppliers in an escalating trade war. The account, Yuyuantantian, said the port is projected to unload a total of 700,000 metric tons of Brazilian soybeans this month, a 32% increase.

Apr 29 - Egypt buys 466,266 tons of wheat from local farmers, document shows
Egypt, often the world's top wheat importer, has bought 466,266 metric tons of wheat from local farmers since the procurement season officially started in mid-April, an official document showed on Monday. That is a fall of more than 37% from purchases made in the same period of last year.

Apr 28 - Cargill bullish on Brazil this year, to handle higher grain volumes, company president says
The Brazilian unit of U.S. grain trader Cargill expects to handle higher volumes of grains and other products in the South American country this year compared to 2024, Paulo Sousa, president of Cargill, said in an interview. The optimism expressed by Sousa reflects a record 2025 soybean harvest and beneficial weather for Brazil's second corn crop, which accounts for about 75% of national corn output in a given year.

Apr 28 - Panic in Pakistan as India vows to cut off water supply over Kashmir
For the first time, India on Wednesday suspended the World Bank-mediated Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 that ensures water for 80% of Pakistani farms, saying it would last until "Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism". Government officials and experts on both sides say India cannot stop water flows immediately, because the treaty has allowed it to only build hydropower plants without significant storage or dams on the three rivers allocated to Pakistan. But things could start changing in a few months.

Apr 28 - Iraq to send 220,000 tons of wheat to Syria as a gift, Syrian state media says
Iraq will ship 220,000 tons of wheat to Syria as "a gift", Syrian media said on Friday, citing the director of the General Organization for Grains, adding that the first batch has already arrived in Syria's Deir el-Zor. Syria had bought about 100,000 tons of wheat in its previous tender reported on March 25, which was believed to be the first large purchase tender since the change of power in Syria late last year.

Apr 25 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
Crop 2024
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, May @240$
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine Apr-May @1'130$
Crop 2025
· DAP corn Odessa, Ukraine, letter @...
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Aug @...

- Ukraine
· Some farmers refrain from forward transactions in dollars, preferring payments in euros against the background of growing distrust of the American currency.
· As of 24.04 in Ukraine were sown: spring wheat - 200 thousand hectares, spring barley - 702 thousand hectares, corn - 705 thousand hectares, sunflower - 1236.8 thousand hectares, soybeans - 187.6 thousand hectares.

- World
· The EU has approved the import of three GM corn lines for use in food, feed and processing industries for 10 years.
· Trade tensions between the United States and China may drop after Trump’s statement that tariffs may be significantly reduced in the event of a deal.

- CORN
The EU's decision to permit the import of GMO corn opens the market for a wider supply from the United States and Brazil. This will create even greater pressure on Ukrainian suppliers, increasing competition for market share.
On the domestic market of Ukraine corn is traded more expensive than food wheat, which is atypical phenomenon. Prices are supported by an active demand from exporters and processors, as well as by a limited supply from farmers who are holding back sales in anticipation of further growth. The limited supplies of corn in the country strengthen price support and keep the tension in the market.
The price gap between the old and the new crop has already reached $34, which indicates the imbalance in the market.

- WHEAT
Approaching a new crop creates pressure on the prices of the old, restraining further growth.
The prices for a new crop for the week did not have significant. In the absence of weather or production risks for the future harvest, the prospects for further growth remain limited.
At FOB, 11.5% new-crop food wheat with a protein content is traded in the range of $220-230 per ton with delivery in July-August.

- SUNFLOWER
Demand from the processors remains high, which prompted some plants to raise the purchase prices for sunflower. At the same time, a significant market offer may contain further growth or even lead to correction. Currently, sunflower is traded in the range of 26'800-27'000 UAH with VAT for the oil content of 48%, depending on the region of delivery.
Sunflower oil in the ports of Odessa rose in a week and reached the level of 1130-1140$ DAP.

- RAPESEED
The demand of buyers for rape remains high, which supports the growth of prices for a new crop. At the same time, manufacturers are not in a hurry to conclude forward contracts, given the likely decline in production volumes - not only in Ukraine, but also in the EU, in particular due to spring frosts.

- SOYA
Trading activity in the domestic soybean market is low, as a result of which prices have not changed during the week. For GMO soybeans prices in ports of Odessa were 392-394$ under DAP conditions, for non-GMO - 435-440$ DAP.

Apr 25 - Crop Watch: Trade war jitters may add some corn acres - Braun
Back for their eighth edition, the U.S. Crop Watch producers are off to their quickest-ever start on planting their corn and soybean fields. However, trade conflicts with top U.S. soybean and sorghum buyer China have a couple of farmers adding a bit more corn than originally planned.

Apr 25 - Brazil to export more soy to China amid trade war, Abiove says
Brazil will export more soybeans to China and more soymeal to its main clients in Europe, the Middle East and Southeast Asia in 2025 amid the trade war between the United States and China, a director at industry group Abiove said on Thursday. A record soy harvest of nearly 170 million metric tons in Brazil will also contribute to the boost in shipments, Daniel Amaral, director of economics and regulatory affairs at Abiove, said.

Apr 25 - Iran bought about 60,000 tons of barley in tender this week, traders say
State-owned Iranian animal feed importer SLAL is believed to have purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender this week, European traders said. Separate tenders seeking up to 120,000 tons of animal feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 120,000 tons of soymeal had closed on April 21.

Apr 24 - Ukraine's once-booming grain industry teetering on being a war casualty: Braun
Ukraine’s grain crops are far from the world’s largest. In fact, the U.S. state of Iowa grows more than twice the amount of corn that Ukraine does in an average year. Still, Ukraine has established itself as a key global grain supplier due to its ability to export the majority of what it grows.

Apr 24 - India starts raising palm oil buying as prices fall below soyoil
India has started raising palm oil purchases after a lull of five months as a correction in prices has made the tropical oil cheaper than rival soyoil, encouraging refiners to place orders to replenish inventories, four dealers told Reuters. Higher purchases by India, the world's biggest buyer of palm oil, will support benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures, which have fallen nearly 10% so far in 2025.

Apr 24 - South Korean mills buy over 50,000 T wheat from US
A group of South Korean flour mills bought over 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said. The purchase involved several different wheat types and was all bought on a free on board basis for shipment between June 1 and June 30.

Apr 24 - Jordan buys about 50,000 T feed barley in tender, traders say
Jordan's state grain buyer has purchased about 50,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender seeking up to 120,000 tons on Wednesday, European traders said. It was said to have been bought from trading house Solaris at an estimated $232.00 a ton cost and freight included to be shipped in the first half of August.

Apr 23 - Trump tariffs threaten to pile more pain on Thailand's rice sector
Thai farmer Daeng Donsingha was already worried for her family of nine when rice prices in the world's second-largest exporter of the staple crashed this year after India resumed exports. Now, she's also fretting over the tariffs unleashed by U.S. President Donald Trump, which could slash demand for Thai rice in its most valuable foreign market and create turmoil in an export industry worth billions of dollars.

Apr 23 - US FDA suspends milk quality tests amid workforce cuts
The Food and Drug Administration is suspending a quality control program for testing of fluid milk and other dairy products due to reduced capacity in its food safety and nutrition division, according to an internal email seen by Reuters. The suspension is another disruption to the nation's food safety programs after the termination and departure of 20,000 employees of the Department of Health and Human Services, which includes the FDA, as part of President Donald Trump's effort to shrink the federal workforce.

Apr 23 - Black Sea may hold back world wheat supplies into 2026: Braun
The global wheat market narrative has recently shifted, though it's easy to have missed it. Exportable world wheat supplies in 2024-25 are no longer expected to fall to multiyear lows, a perhaps predictable outcome based on recent patterns. But the relief could be temporary. Meager outlooks for the upcoming wheat harvests in Russia and Ukraine, which account for about 30% of global wheat exports, mean that the thinning supply story could reemerge for 2025-26, and potentially for real this time.

Apr 23 - Jordan buys estimated 60,000 metric tons of wheat in tender, traders say
Jordan's state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, traders said. It was believed to have been bought from trading house CHS at an estimated $261.70 a ton cost and freight included for shipment in the second half of July, they said.

Apr 22 - Russian wheat exports are expected to be below average for the fourth consecutive month (SovEkon)

SovEkon estimates exports of Russian wheat in April at 2.0m tons, compared to 5.0m tons a year earlier and 3.5m tons on average over five years. Russia continues to export wheat at a below-average rate for the fourth consecutive month. Exports slowed due to low margins and weaker competitiveness of Russian wheat.

Sales of Russian wheat continue to slow. The volume of concluded contracts for the sale of wheat on Monday amounted to 1.1 million tons compared to 1.3 million tons a month earlier.

The competitiveness of Russian wheat has declined. Last week, Russian wheat with 12.5% protein was offered at $250-252/t FOB. At the same time, French wheat was offered at $244/t FOB, and wheat at the ports of Constanta, Varna and Burgas (CVB) at $248/t.

The main buyers of Russian wheat are likely to switch to other suppliers. The Algerian agency OAIC purchased 570-600 thousand tons of wheat of arbitrary origin at $267.5/t C&F. According to our estimates, Russian wheat was $2-3/t more expensive. Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine were likely to be suppliers.

With prices relatively high, export yields remain low. Exporters' margins since the end of last year have gone into negative territory against 5-10/t in autumn.

So far, SovEkon estimates exports in 2024/25 at 40.7 million tons. In April, the US Ministry of Agriculture estimated exports of Russian wheat at 44.0 million tons.

Exporters will continue to try to reduce purchase prices, which may be offset by the low availability of grain in major export regions.

Apr 22 - US farmers plant 12% of corn crop; winter wheat condition declines
U.S. farmers planted corn and soybeans faster than normal last week, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed on Monday, as rains threatened to slow field work this week. Farmers planted 12% of the nation's corn crop by April 20, topping the five-year average of 10%, the USDA said in a weekly crop progress report.

Apr 22 - ADM closing soybean processing plant in Kershaw, South Carolina
Grains merchant Archer-Daniels-Midland will permanently close its soybean processing plant in Kershaw, South Carolina, later this spring as part of a cost-cutting and consolidation push announced earlier this year, the company confirmed to Reuters on Monday. ADM has been cutting jobs and downsizing some operations since it announced in February that it planned to cut costs by $500 million to $700 million over three to five years.

Apr 22 - Thai first-quarter rice exports fall 30% annually
Thailand's rice exports fell 30% annually in the first quarter of this year to 2.1 million metric tons, an industry association said on Monday. The decline was due to countries delaying buying decisions and India resuming rice exports, Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, told reporters.

Apr 21 - Japan considering soybean, rice concessions in US tariff talks, Yomiuri reports
Japan is considering increasing its soybean and rice imports as a concession in trade negotiations with the U.S. over President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, Japan's Yomiuri daily reported on Saturday. With Trump's trade offensive roiling markets and stoking recession fears, Japan is seeking to walk back his "reciprocal" tariffs and other duties imposed on Japan, along with dozens of countries.

Apr 21 - China's soybean imports from US jump in March, but Brazil set to dominate market
China's soybean imports from the United States rose 12% in March from the same period last year, as shipments secured in late 2024 by buyers concerned about the potential for a trade spat between the U.S. and China arrived in port. However, Brazil is expected to dominate the market in the coming months as its harvest season begins.

Apr 21 - First wheat shipment since Assad's ouster arrives in Syria's Latakia
A ship carrying wheat has arrived in Syria's Latakia port, the first delivery of its kind since former President Bashar al-Assad was ousted by rebels in December, the government said on Sunday. Officials of the new Islamist-led government say that while imports of wheat and other basics are not subject to U.S. and U.N. sanctions, challenges in securing financing for trade deals have deterred global suppliers from selling to Syria.

Apr 21 - Russia's March seaborne grain exports fell 58% to 2.3 million tons
Russia's seaborne grain exports dropped by 58% year-on-year in March, falling to 2.3 million metric tons, according to shipping data from industry sources released on Friday. Russia, the world's leading wheat exporter, shipped grain to global markets at a record pace during the first part of the 2024/25 marketing season, which began on July 1 of last year. However, the introduction of export quotas in February led to a sharp decline in exports.

Apr18 - Easter Holidays

There are lots of holidays this week and next due to Christian Easter holidays.
Some countries like Brazil are closed on both Friday 18 (Good Friday) and Monday 21 (Easter Monday). Here in France things are only closed on Monday.

Apr 18 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
Crop 2024
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, May @237$
· sunflower oil DAP center. Latvia, apr-may @1'082€
Crop 2025
· DAP corn Odessa, Ukraine, Dec @...
· sunflower DAP factory, pd. Ukraine, heather-yellow @...

- Ukraine
· As of 17.04 in Ukraine were sown: spring wheat - 169.4 thousand hectares, spring barley - 656.2 thousand hectares, corn - 69.5 thousand hectares, sunflower - 192.5 thousand hectares, soybeans - 11.6 thousand hectares.
- Europe
· Imports of corn to the EU from 01.07 to 15.04 amounted to 16.5 million tons, which is 14% more than last year. Ukraine and Brazil declined to 57% and 9.8% (67% and 19% a year ago). In turn, the US share increased to 21% (0.8% a year ago).

- CORN
China continues to actively buy Brazilian corn, while Ukrainian interest remains low. In the current 24/25 MY (heather-ber) exports to this country is only about 120 thousand tons, which is 20 times less than last year. And so far, there are no signs of growth in demand due to the competitiveness of Brazilian corn.
In the domestic market, corn prices continue to rise against the background of active demand from buyers. During the week, prices for the old harvest in the ports of Odessa rose to 234-236 $/t DAP.
The new crop did not undergo changes - 204-206 $/t DAP ports.

- WHEAT
In the European market, customer activity decreased on the eve of Easter and long weekends.
The Ukrainian market, in its turn, demonstrates high activity in the segment of old-harvest wheat. The demand from buyers is focused mainly on food grain, which contributes to the growth of prices. Feed wheat remains less attractive. Against this background, the spread between food and fodder increased to 8-10$.
The new wheat crop is also in steady demand. In ports the price of wheat 11.5% was traded at 216-218$ on DAP conditions, feed wheat - 206-208$ DAP.

- SUNFLOWER
Prices for the new sunflower crop are currently in the range of 510-525 $/t with VAT, depending on the oil content and delivery region. Against the background of the expected growth of the harvest in the 2025 season, processing plants occupy a waiting position, focusing on the prospect of increasing margin in future processing. As a result, the purchasing activity remains low, which contributes to the accumulation of the delayed proposal for the new season.

- RAPESEED
The demand for rape of a new crop in the foreign market is growing. In the eastern and northern regions of Germany, purchases were intensified against the background of increased confidence of processors in the future harvest. Current prices for rape from 40% oil are formed at a discount of -7-10 euros to the August futures with delivery in August-September.

- SOYA
The global soybean market is under pressure from a large supply from the United States and South America, which hinders price dynamics. At the same time, prices remain stable on the Ukrainian market, although trade activity has decreased.

Apr 17 - More Japanese embracing foreign rice, even before it became a tariff topic
When a severe rice shortage sent prices skyrocketing in Japan last year, Tokyo restaurant owner Arata Hirano did what had once seemed unthinkable: he switched to an American variety. The price of the Californian Calrose rice he buys has doubled since his first purchase last summer, but even so it's far cheaper than home-grown grains. 

Apr 17 - Reality Check: Will adding fringe US corn acres drag down yield? - Braun
U.S. corn farmers this year are set to plant one of their biggest areas in history as the crop’s profitability potential is unusually strong versus alternative crops. Both high-yielding and low-yielding states are set to boost corn acres this year, leading some market participants to wonder if the lower-yielding states could weigh down national yield.

Apr 16 - Argentina bumper wheat harvest could hit record if export tax cuts extended
Argentina's major Buenos Aires grains exchange, already forecasting a bumper wheat crop, could raise its estimates even higher if a temporary export tax cut until the end of June is extended, the body's chief economist told Reuters on Tuesday. On the sidelines of an event to unveil the maiden forecast for 2025/26 wheat production, economist Ramiro Costa told Reuters that the current estimate of 20.5 million metric tons would go higher with an extended tax cut. 

Apr 16 - India's government, sugar industry face off over jute bags
In India, the world's largest consumer of sugar, the federal government and producers have locked horns in court over a contentious issue: jute bags. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has been tightening enforcement of a 1987 law, which obliges sugar mills to pack 20% of their supplies in jute bags or face fines for non-compliance, in a bid to support the traditional fibre industry.

Apr 15 - Argentina farmers focus on harvest over sales despite currency boost
Argentina's grain industry welcomed an exchange-rate overhaul on Monday, though the new measures will likely not translate into immediate sales as the harvest remains behind schedule, experts said. Late on Friday, Argentina's central bank loosened foreign-exchange controls, a long-awaited measure twinned with billions of dollars to be disbursed by development banks including the International Monetary Fund. 

Apr 15 - ADM halting domestic trading in China, cutting jobs in Shanghai
Global grain merchant Archer-Daniels-Midland has begun shutting down domestic trading operations in China and laying off staff within its largest business segment as part of a global cost-cutting push, the company said in an emailed statement on Monday. The move was meant to help ADM, a grains trading giant that has been embroiled in an accounting scandal since last year, "remain agile in a challenging environment," the company said in the statement.

Apr 14 - Bangladesh said to buy 50,000 T rice in March 27 tender, traders say
Bangladesh's state grains buyer is believed to have to purchased about 50,000 metric tons of rice in an international tender which closed on March 27, traders said on Friday. Traders said the purchase was made at an estimated $416.44 a metric ton CIF liner out, which was the lowest price offered in the tender.

Apr 14 - Patient corn bulls emerge victorious post tariff onslaught: Braun
After building immensely bullish bets, speculators in late February rode out Chicago corn’s worst downturn in over a year as the United States prepared to upend global trade. Most of those long positions were dumped during March as economic uncertainties intensified, and corn futures sank to three-month lows by the end of March. 

Apr 14 - Indian shrimp industry sails in troubled waters after Trump tariffs
Turbulence unleashed by President Donald Trump's tariffs could rock global shipments of shrimp to the United States, with exporters in biggest supplier India saying they endanger 2,000 containers packed with the frozen delicacy. But Ecuador, thousands of kilometres nearer to the United States faces a lower tariff rate and stands to benefit, the exporters say, as shrimp is its most important export after oil.

Apr 12 - Fismeal Comments & Prices: Peruvian "indication" (Hammersmith Report)
- It has been announced that the next North/Central fishing season in Peru will begin on April 22. No quota has been advised yet but the trade seems to feel that it will be at 2.4 million m/t. The new quota will be published on Apil 16.
- Fishing in the South of Peru has dropped off to almost nothing with only 2,900 m/t landed last week bringing the total catch up to 184,400 m/t which leaves 66,400 m/t available. Only about 10 vessels did any fishing last week.
- Fishmeal prices in China are stable even though fishmeal shipments from the USA will be hit by the latest China import tariff of 125%. Last year the USA shipped about 60,000 m/t of fishmeal to China. In the scheme of things, USA fishmeal shipments to China are not particularly significant and will be easily replaced from other origins.
- Advance fishmeal sales for th next fishing season are now reported to be at about 230,000 m/t which will be just over 40% of the next season’s production, assuming a quota of 2.4 million m/t.
- Fishmeal producer Exalmar has agreed to purchase Pesquera Centinela, which reports say could add as much as $500 million to Exalmar’s annual sales. Details of the agreement have not been published.

Apr 12 - Weekly USA Grain and Protein Report (Hammersmith report)

This week was another tariff week but this one was combined with a USDA-WASDE week ---- certainly made everything very exciting and painful for some.

USA corn prices were up by about USD 12 on the week with US soybeans up by USD 22 m/t and soymeal up by about USD 15 m/t. USA hard red winter wheat was up by USD 5 m/t while soft red winter wheat was up by almost USD 10 m/t. USA spring wheat was also up by about USD 10 m/t.
 
According to the WASDE report both corn and soybeans will have lower than expected USA and world stock levels which certainly helped to push prices higher as the week ended. Overall, the WASDE report was seen as bullish for about everything. The tariff related weakness in the US dollar also helped to push prices higher.

Although many of the new tariffs (above 10%) have been delayed for 90 days and the stock market has rushed to recover, there is still quite a bit of worry in the grain/oilseed business. China, where all the tariffs still apply, is a major buyer from the USA for corn, soybeans, sorghum and DDGS ---- exporters are now looking everywhere for alternative markets.

The USA/China trade tariff situation has created a great deal of confusion in the container freight market ---- China to US shipments are a large share of the container business and container lines are moving quickly to rearrange shipping schedules to reduce the China/USA – USA/China routings. Finding container freight for destinations from the USA that were serviced by routes that ended in China/Asia is difficult.

Apr 11 - US Wheat Weekly Market report ( US WHEAT )
•    Futures markets closed the week higher due to a weaker dollar and a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. May 2025 CBOT soft red winter (SRW) increased 27 cents to $5.56/bu. May KCBT hard red winter (HRW) increased 11 cents to $5.68/bu. May MGEX hard red spring (HRS) rose by 31 cents to end at $6.15/bu. In other commodities, May CBOT corn increased 30 cents to $4.90/bu, and May CBOT soybeans jumped 66 cents to $10.43/bu.
 
•    Basis values remained stable to slightly lower this week in light of tariff developments and continuing U.S. trade uncertainty. Buyer interest has decreased due to heightened risk factors. Farmer sales have been low as spring fieldwork begins. Discounts for lower protein HRS wheat have been applied to help control the supply of low protein spring wheat in the market.
•    The first 2025 USDA Crop Progress report indicated that 48% of the winter wheat crop is in good to excellent condition, a decrease from 56% recorded last year.
•    The April 2025 WASDE report showed mild impacts. World ending stocks increased by 620,000 MT to 260.7 MMT, exports decreased by 1.25 MMT to 206.8 MMT, and demand dropped by 1.5 MMT to 805.2 MMT. In the U.S., estimated 2024//25 exports fell by 460,000 MT to 22.7 MMT, while ending stocks rose by 730,000 MT to 23.0 MMT, marking the highest level since 2020/21.
 
Commercial Sales
•    For the week ending April 3, net sales of 107,300 metric tons (MT) were registered for delivery in 2024/25. Total outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all wheat classes in 2024/25 are 21.3 million metric tons (MMT), which is 13% ahead of last year’s pace. For delivery in 2025/26 weekly sales totaled 107,700 MT and accumulated sales reached 1.2 MMT, a 24% decrease from last year. Sales have slowed as importers assess the risks associated with proposed Section 301 port fees on Chinese vessels. USDA projects total 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports to be 22.3 MMT, with current commitments accounting for 95% of the total projected exports.
 
•    Rain fell in wheat-growing areas of Kansas, Texas, Nebraska, and South Dakota this week, but more moisture is needed as the 2025 wheat crop develops. Cold temperatures in Kansas and Texas last week caused concern, but no frost damage was reported. Moisture levels in the PNW remain adequate.
 
•    Exporters are watching developments around the implementation of the Section 301 actions targeting the Chinese shipbuilding industry. Recent comments from the U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer suggested the office will take a closer look at the impacts on agricultural commodities, a potentially positive development.
•    On April 9th, U.S. reciprocal tariffs to most nations were delayed for 90 days. However, tariff conflict with China accelerated and baseline 10% tariff rates that took effect on April 5 will remain in place during this 90-day period.
•    Türkiye has resumed importing Russia wheat. Türkiye has imported 2.5 million metric tons of wheat from Russia this season.
 
Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
•    The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the week lower at 1,274.
•    The U.S. Dollar Index closed at 100.2, the lowest level since April 2022. Decreased confidence in the dollar, recessions risks, and spiking Treasury yields contributed to the decline.

Apr 11 - Ukrainian Agri Weekly reports (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
Crop 2024
· sunflower DAP center. Ukraine, April @26'200₴
· sunflower meal DAP border of Ukraine, grass @247$
· sunflower oil DAP border of Ukraine, herbs @1'037€
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Apr-May @1'105$
Crop 2025
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @...
· Oct FCA border Ukraine, Oct-Dec @...

- World
· Trump reduced customs tariffs for all countries to 10% for 90 days, but at the same time increased pressure on China, raising tariffs to 125% in response to Chinese duties of 84%.
· The EU postponed the imposition of import duties on American goods, which were to come into force on April 15, for 90 days.

- CORN
Prices for corn in the domestic market resumed growth. Over the past week, prices for old harvests have risen to 228-230 $/t DAP ports. Demand from traders increased against the background of the need to close previously concluded contracts, which led to an increase in their purchasing activity.
Corn of the new crop also grew and traded at levels of 204-206 $/t DAP ports.

Recent customer indicators, harvest 2025:
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) ~204-206$
· DAP Germany (Mon-Fri) ~208-210€
· DAP Netherlands (pd) ~210-213€

- WHEAT
In the wheat market, there is an increase in prices for grain of the old crop. The most actively expensive food wheat -  because of the extremely low stocks, demand for it has increased markedly. For quality grain there is competition between traders and processors. Prices for feed wheat are also growing, but not so active.
The prices of our harvest did not undergo significant changes. Wheat of 11.5% was traded at 214-216$ DAP ports, feed wheat - 202-204$ DAP.

- SUNFLOWER
The decrease in the cost of sunflower oil in the world market caused the fall in sunflower prices in Ukraine. Over the past week, prices have decreased by an average of 500-700 UAH/t. Additional pressure also makes the fact that most processors are already supplied with raw materials by the end of April.
In the spot market sunflower oil decreased to 1105-1115 $/t DAP port.
In recent weeks, the market has changed its direction several times - from growth to fall - which increases the feeling of instability.

Recent customer indicators, harvest 2025:
· DAP Ukraine (factory) 48% ~520-535$ incl. VAT

- RAPESEED
April frosts in Eastern Europe and directly in Ukraine cause concern among rapeseed producers, because they could negatively affect the condition of crops, thereby causing uncertainty about the potential yield.

Recent customer indicators, harvest 2025:
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) ~475-485$

- SOYA
There is a price discrepancy in the soybean market. In ports prices remain stable, while processors increase purchasing prices due to high demand, in particular, for GMO soybeans.

Apr 11 - US corn inventories poised to tighten as exports increase, USDA saysU.S. corn inventories will be tighter than previously expected before the next harvest, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Thursday, as it projected larger exports. Grain farmers and traders worry that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff disputes could hurt demand for American farm products, though corn exports have been strong this year.  

Apr 10 - Strike halts grain ship traffic at Argentina's Rosario ports
Grain and agro-industrial products ships will be unable to dock or leave Argentina's Rosario agro-port hub on Thursday because of a CGT union strike against government policies, the head of the private port chamber CAPyM said. "We will not be able to dock and moor the ships," Guillermo Wade, manager of the Chamber of Port and Maritime Activities, told Reuters, citing the strike by the Maritime Workers Union and the river navigators' union.

Apr 10 - Wave of US soybeans set to reach China's shores despite tariffs
China is set to receive about 3 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in April-May, according to sources and shipping data, despite new higher tariffs on American products that are poised to choke off flows of China's largest U.S. farm import item. Most of the cargoes were purchased by state stockpiler Sinograin, said four sources familiar with the matter, which, they said, is likely to pay the higher duties but may nonetheless have to sell at a discount locally amid competition from cheaper beans from Brazil, the world's biggest grower. 

Apr 10 - EU tariffs to curb US corn imports, soy at lower risk for now
European Union counter-tariffs on U.S. goods starting next week are set to halt a large flow of U.S. corn to Europe and raise costs for buyers chasing alternative supplies of the feed grain, traders and industry representatives said. Grain market reaction has been restrained so far with traders unsure if a barrage of tariffs, including tit-for-tat U.S. and Chinese duties, will stay in place or be removed following negotiations.

Apr 09 - Brazil protesters lift blockade of Amazon grain shipping route
Brazilian indigenous protesters have lifted a blockade of the Trans-Amazonian Highway, reopening a critical grain shipping route linking farmers to the Miritituba river port, traders association Abiove and a toll road operator said on Tuesday. Munduruku indigenous activists intermittently shut down the road, also known as the BR-230, beginning on March 25 to put pressure on Brazil's Supreme Court to overturn a 2023 law limiting indigenous land rights.

Apr 09 - Hailstorm hits Russia's third-largest wheat producing region
A strong hailstorm hit Russia's third-largest wheat-producing region of Stavropol, damaging grain crops, a local governor said on Tuesday, as extreme weather swept across Russia in early April, bringing snowstorms and sub-zero temperatures. The Stavropol region accounted for about 8% of Russia's 82.6 million-metric-ton wheat harvest in 2024, when crops were hit by bad weather from early spring frosts to severe drought in many grain-producing regions. 

Apr 09 - China boosts Indian rapeseed meal purchases after tariff on Canadian imports
China has bought 52,000 tons of Indian rapeseed meal in the past three weeks - four times the amount Beijing imported from India in the whole of 2024 - after Chinese authorities imposed a 100% retaliatory tariff on Canadian imports, industry sources said. India's rapeseed meal exports will help China, the world's top consumer, replace imports from Canada while easing pressure on local rapeseed prices in India, which is sitting on large stockpiles of the widely used animal feed.

Apr 08 - Soybeans wait in the wings while US, China exchange blows: Braun
U.S.-China Trade War 2.0 is heating up and soybeans, China’s top U.S. import, are in the crosshairs once again. But the soybean battle may be lackluster right now because of how little trade is done at this time of year and how few U.S. cargoes are left to ship to China this season.

Apr 08 - USDA rates 48% of US winter wheat good-excellent, corn 2% seeded
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday rated 48% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition, above analyst expectations but down from 56% at this time a year ago. Wheat ratings in the first weekly crop progress report of the 2025 growing season have deteriorated since the USDA released its last national report before the winter.  

Apr 08 - Brazil's second corn crop prospects improve on rains, AgRural says
Showers last week and forecasts of more rain throughout April brought relief to second corn crop farmers in Brazil, according to an agribusiness consultancy and a weather forecaster. The main corn-producing areas started to receive showers this week, agrometeorologist Marco Antonio dos Santos said on Monday, adding the timing is good for growing plants.

Apr 07 - Ukraine Crop-25 bids

Wheat :
- $201/210/213 DAP POC for feed/11.5/12.5 Jul-Aug, nearby firm offers are welcome.
Seller feed $220 FOB POC Jul/Aug vs. $215
Seller 11.5% $230 FOB POC Aug vs. ncb
Seller 11.5% MU-2 FOB CVB vs. MU-7 Aug
- The port line-up: a couple more vessels arrived on the roads over the weekend. The current line-up is at 251Kmt: Algeria 101, Egypt 53, Bangladesh 50, Turkey 31, Italy 16.

Corn :
- DAP POC bid levels are within $225 for Apr/May. FOB POC buyers indicate $234/5 Apr/May vs. sellers $2-3 higher.
New crop stable:
seller OND FOB POC CZ120 vs. CZ90
seller OND FOB CVB CZ130 vs. CZ110
Port lineup is higher at 416Kmt: Egypt 112, Spain 83, Turkey 80, Netherlands 67, Italy 36, Libya 33, Greece 4.

Apr 07 - China retaliation on US farm goods hits soybeans, bolstering Brazil
China's retaliation on Friday against new U.S. tariffs is poised to accelerate Beijing's move towards alternative suppliers for agricultural goods including Brazil, a shift that began during the trade war of U.S. President Donald Trump's first term. Beijing unveiled a slew of countermeasures, including additional duties of 34% on all U.S. goods, which are on top of the 10-15% tariffs placed on roughly $21 billion worth of agricultural trade in early March.

Apr 07 - Tariffs throw US, Canadian farm machinery manufacturers into turmoil
All around a recent farm show in Canada, equipment salespeople struggled to swing deals with farmers worried about tariffs. With some combines costing more than $800,000, a surprise price hike from a tariff would be a hit most farm budgets cannot easily take.

Apr 05 - Weekly USA Grain and Protein Report (  Hammersmith Reports )

- Tariff, tariff, tariff – once again import tariffs from the USA and reciprocal tariffs from other countries are setting the market tone for the week. China has reacted very strongly to USA tariffs while both the EU and the UK are holding back on any tariffs in the hopes that there is some negotiation room with the US. The UK is pleased to only have 10% tariffs while the EU is certainly not happy with 20% tariffs. It is expected that there will be lots of discussion next week but will the US actually negotiate --- time will tell.
- USA corn prices were almost unchanged at the end of the week – perhaps down by USD 1 or 2 m/t. US soybeans prices dropped by about USD 15 m/t in the week with soymeal down by about USD 10 m/t. USA wheat prices, like corn, were almost unchanged at the end of the week – perhaps down by USD 1 or 2 m/t.
- Soybean prices were hit hard by the 34% reciprocal tariff added by China on US goods which will certainly price US soybeans out of the China market --- the same is expected for US sorghum which has seen China as a major buyer.
- There were comments in trade reports that US corn and soybean exports cannot be ignored by importing countries, even with possible reciprocal tariffs, as there may not be sufficient supplies available from Argentina, Brazil and the Black Sea to meet demand for the next few months.
- EU Trade Ministries are meeting next week to discuss the USA tariffs and to mull over what reaction to take. The EU may not be able to add tariffs to many US items --- like corn, soybeans, soymeal, DDGS ---- since these items are needed in the EU.  Difficult decisions to be made in coming days.

Apr 05 - Fishmeal comments : Peruvian indicative Fishmeal Prices ( Hammersmith Reports )

- Fishing in the South region of Peru has fallen off to almost nothing. Total catch is now at about 177,000 m/t --- 39,350 m/t fishmeal and 3,600 m/t fish oil. About 74,000 m/t remaining on the fishing quota for the South. However, as pointed out by MSI Ceres in their weekly report, the catch in the South is the highest percentage of quota landed since at least 2015.
- Trade reports say that the IMARPE Cruise is looking more positive with recent results suggesting that spawning is about over. The Cruise is expected to finish this week with results soon and perhaps a new fishing season before the end of April or early May at the latest.
- Presales of fishmeal are reported to be at about 230,000 m/t.
- The closer that we get to the new season the more flexible fishmeal prices become since everyone seems to be anticipating another very good fishing season.
- One more note, it is not expected that the new USA/Trump tariffs will have any effect on fishmeal/fish oil exports.

Apr 05 - Markets on the verge of a nervous breakdown
This week was tough for financial markets. Major indices took a nosedive after Donald Trump unveiled "reciprocal" tariffs that were much higher than anyone anticipated. The baseline is a 10% tariff, but some nations are feeling the heat far more. China is staring down the barrel of a whopping 54% in customs duties, Vietnam isn't far behind at 46%, and the European Union, by comparison, is getting off with a "slap on the wrist" at 20%. Volatility is the name of the game as risk aversion makes a dramatic comeback. Just when you thought it couldn't get any more chaotic, China decided to throw its hat into the tariff ring, announcing a 34% levy on U.S. products this Friday. The trade war isn't just a looming threat; it's here, and it's shaking up the markets with gusto.

Apr 04 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· DAP corn Odessa, Ukraine, April @227$
· sunflower meal DAP border of Ukraine, Apr @239$

- Ukraine
· Exports from Ukraine of cereals, oilseeds and their products in March amounted to: corn - 2 391 thousand tons, wheat - 1 129 thousand tons, barley - 68.6 thousand tons, soybeans 369.1 - thousand tons, rape - 32.4 thousand tons, sunflower - 24.1 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 440.7 thousand tons, soybean oil - 53.8 thousand tons, cake (soybean and sunflower) - 493.4 thousand tons.
· As of 03.04 in Ukraine were sown: spring wheat - 116.5 thousand hectares, spring barley - 551.8 thousand hectares, sunflower - 33 thousand hectares, soybeans - 2.6 thousand hectares

- USA
· The United States introduces a 10% base fee for all trading partners, except Canada and Mexico, and for individual countries, the duties will increase to 40%.

- CORN
The fall in corn futures on the Matif exchange caused a decline in prices in the external physical market, which presses both on the old and new crop.
On the Ukrainian market, corn continued to fall in price under the influence of high domestic supply. In the ports of Odessa, corn was traded in the range of 224-226 $/t under DAP conditions, while on the western border prices were 200-202 €/t FCA.
At the same time, the new crop did not undergo significant changes and was traded at 200-204 $/t DAP.

Recent customer indicators, harvest 2025:
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) ~200-204$
· DAP Germany (Mon-Fri) ~205-208€
· DAP Netherlands (pd) ~217-219€

- WHEAT
After a significant decline in prices last week, the market is stabilized in the segment of food wheat. At the same time, the feed grain shows a further decline in prices, albeit insignificant.
The new crop continues to be actively digested, which has had a positive effect on prices. The spread between the old and the new crop is narrowed, emphasizing the increase in buyers' interest in the grain of the future crop. In the ports of Odessa, wheat of 11.5% was traded at 213-215$ on DAP terms, feed wheat - 203-205$ DAP.

Recent customer indicators, harvest 2025:
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) 12.5pro ~216-218$
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) 11.5pro ~213-215$
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) fodder ~203-205$
· DAP Germany (Mon-Sun) trucks ~206-208€
· DAP Netherlands (pd) trucks ~204-206€

- SUNFLOWER
At the beginning of the week, sunflower prices continued to decline as processors are supplied with raw materials for the coming periods. However, by mid-week the market had turned around and prices began to rise. The main driver was an increase in demand and oil prices, which caused a rise in price of raw materials.
Sunflower oil in the ports of Odessa increased by an average of $ 10-15 per week and was traded at levels of $ 1135-1140 / t DAP.
The award for sunflower on average is 6000 UAH relative to the price of the classic.
The latest displays of buyers for sunflower:
· DAP Ukraine (factory) 48% ~560-580$
Recent customer indications for oil:
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) ~1'135-1'140$
· DAP Ukraine (border) ~1'135-1'140$

- RAPESEED
Expected frosts in Ukraine in the coming days pose risks for winter rape, which may limit its future supply and affect the market. Against the background of these uncertainties, buyers stepped up forward purchases of the new crop, resulting in prices for the new crop increased.

- SOYA
The growth of demand against the background of low supply in the domestic market contributes to higher prices. Especially high demand is observed by processors who experience a shortage of raw materials.
In the ports of Odessa the price for soybeans GMOs was 388-392$ on terms of DAP, for non-GMOs - 435-440$ DAP.

Apr 04 - US egg imports meant to drive prices down could be hit by tariffs
U.S. President Donald Trump's new tariffs could apply to eggs being imported to ease a supply shortage, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Thursday, a move that industry experts said could boost prices just as they have started to decline from record highs. Rollins said in a Fox News interview that tariffs on egg imports were possible and negotiations with affected countries were ongoing. 

Apr 04 - Ukraine's corn could benefit from US tariffs, analyst says
Ukrainian corn, a key element in the country's grain sector, could benefit from the tariffs imposed by the U.S., as it is able to partially substitute for U.S. corn if retaliatory sanctions are imposed, analysts said on Thursday. U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 10% minimum tariff on most imports, with significantly higher duties on goods from dozens of countries including China, which is likely to prompt countermeasures potentially driving up prices and reducing demand for U.S. goods.

Apr 03 - Ukraine's Jan-Feb grain exports through Romania's Constanta drop to 226,000 tons
Ukraine shipped 226,000 metric tons of grain through the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta in the first two months of the year, down sharply from 1.33 million tons in the same period last year, the port authority said on Wednesday. The drop reflects Kyiv's reliance on its own ports despite Russian attacks on shipping and infrastructure, though Constanta remains Ukraine's main alternative export route for grains since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. 

Apr 03 - By the numbers: The erosion of US grain export dominance: Braun
The United States was once the world’s breadbasket, commanding global grain and oilseed trade by a wide margin. The country still leads in corn exports. That title, however, has recently been threatened by Brazil, the same party that demoted U.S. soybean exporters to the No. 2 spot.

Apr 02 - China says beef imports investigation will be fair
China said it would deliver a "fair and objective" ruling following a hearing in its ongoing investigation into beef imports that could lead to higher tariffs or import limits if it finds domestic producers are at risk. China is the world's largest beef consumer and importer, and its investigation coincides with a trade dispute with U.S. President Donald Trump, who is set to announce reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday after Washington and Beijing hit each other with tit-for-tat tariffs in March. 

Apr 02 - Australia to 'stand up for national interests' on US tariffs, says PM Albanese
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his rival in a May election, Liberal Party leader Peter Dutton, said they would stand up for the country's national interests in the face of looming U.S. tariffs that could hit Australian beef. Australia has a trade surplus with the United States, and a free trade agreement that allows duty-free entry for U.S. exports.

Apr 01 - Grain traders ask Ukraine to suspend price mechanism changes, say exports at risk
Ukraine's grain traders union UGA said on Monday it and the UAC agrarian producers union had demanded that the government suspend additions to the mechanism for determining minimum export prices, warning that the changes could halt exports."An artificial ban on price reductions ignores market realities and threatens Ukraine's ability to conclude export contracts," it noted. 

Apr 01 - Syria issues tender to buy 100,000 metric tons of milling wheat, traders say
A state grains buyer in Syria has issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of milling wheat, European traders said on Sunday. The deadline for the submission of price offers is believed to be April 28.

Apr 01 - USDA February soy crush seen at 188.7 million bushels, analysts say
The U.S. soybean crush likely dropped in February to 5.662 million short tons, or 188.7 million bushels, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Tuesday. If the average of eight analyst estimates is realized, it would be down 11.2% from the 212.5 million bushels crushed in January and down 2.4% from the 193.4 million bushels crushed in February last year, which was a day longer due to the leap year.

Mar 28 - US beef sales to China skid after Beijing lets export registrations lapse
U.S. beef sales to China have taken a dive, U.S. government data showed on Thursday, after Beijing allowed the expiration of registrations that had permitted exports from hundreds of American meat facilities. A tit-for-tat tariff dispute has also raised duties on U.S. meat and other goods shipped to China, making the products less attractive to Chinese buyers. The spat adds new strains to relations between the countries that had already reached historic lows in recent years. 

Mar 28 - Coming to a store near you: double-digit coffee price hikes
If your favourite coffee beans have vanished from the shelves, don't worry - they will return soon. The bad news is they will be up to 25% more expensive. Roasters such as Lavazza, Illy, Nestle and Douwe Egberts maker JDE Peet's are currently in talks with retailers about passing on costs from a near doubling of arabica coffee prices over the past year, according to eight industry sources.

Mar 27 - Black Sea deal unlikely to boost Russian food exports in short-term
A potential deal to ease restrictions on Russia's access to international agricultural markets, touted by Washington and Moscow as a boon for global food security, is unlikely to have much immediate impact, analysts and industry sources said on Wednesday. But the U.S.-brokered agreement, if it happens, could advance President Vladimir Putin's longer-term ambitions of positioning Russia as an agricultural superpower and secure a much-needed boost in foreign exchange revenues.  

Mar 27 - USDA's 'March Madness' will be no slam dunk for grain analysts: Braun
The drama is upon us. We're not talking about college basketball, but rather the incoming U.S. grain stocks and acreage data that is just as notorious for "upsets" to the general consensus. Although it is the most hotly discussed item set to appear in Monday’s reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. corn planting intentions have without a doubt been the most difficult to predict in recent years.

Mar 26 - Export prices for Ukrainian corn are declining now after a period of strong growth (APK-Inform)

According to APK-Inform, since the start of the current week, demand prices for feed corn at Ukrainian ports have been declining, after a recent period of strong growth.
This trend was driven by a decrease in demand amid consistently high prices, which reduced the competitiveness of this crop. At the same time, farmers were not actively selling at lower prices and were waiting for a reversal. Additionally, downward price trends on external markets added pressure on prices.
As a result, in the ports of Greater Odesa and the Danube, demand prices for feed corn have decreased by an average of 2 USD/ton, and as of March 26, 2025, they are quoted in the ranges of 224-231 and 225-232 USD/ton CPT-port, respectively.

Mar 25 - US turns to Brazil for eggs and considers other sources during bird flu outbreak
The U.S. has almost doubled imports of Brazilian eggs once used only for pet food and is considering relaxing regulations for eggs laid by chickens raised for meat, as President Donald Trump's administration seeks to bring down sky-high prices spiked by bird flu. While none of the Brazilian or broiler chicken eggs would wind up on grocery shelves, they could be used in processed foods such as cake mixes, ice cream or salad dressing, freeing up more fresh eggs for shoppers. 

Mar 25 - Weekly USDA wheat ratings improve in Kansas; Oklahoma ratings slide
The U.S. Department of Agriculture in a weekly crop report on Monday rated 49% of the winter wheat in top producer Kansas was in "good to excellent" condition, up 1 percentage point from the previous week, but ratings fell in Oklahoma as wind-whipped soils lost moisture. The USDA rated 37% of Oklahoma's winter wheat as "good to excellent", down 9 percentage points from last week.

Mar 24 - India to start new sugar season with ample stocks, says producers' body
India is likely to start the new sugar season in October with comfortable opening stocks, despite lower-than-expected production in the current season and exports of 1 million tons, a leading producers' body said on Thursday. The world's second-biggest sugar producer allowed mills to export 1 million metric tons of the sweetener in January during the current season to September 2025, as both the government and the industry believed there was a surplus for overseas markets. 

Mar 24 - Funds extend Chicago corn selloff as tariff deadline looms: Braun
After building super-bullish bets a few weeks ago, speculators have swiftly ducked back from the Chicago corn market with geopolitical risks still very much in focus. The United States plans to impose sweeping reciprocal tariffs on multiple trade partners on April 2. Pivotal but often-unpredictable U.S. planting survey results are set to land on March 31, and these upcoming events have investors in risk-off mode.

Mar 21 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch-flower @230$->231$
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Apr-May @232.5$
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch-flower @394.5$
· sunflower high oleic DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch-flower @32ʼ800₴

Crop 2025
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @206$

- Ukraine
· As of 20.03 spring crops were sown in Ukraine: wheat - 36.7 thousand ha, barley - 133.5 thousand ha.
· The weather fluctuations in February and March did not cause significant damage to the crops of winter cereals in Ukraine - most of them are in satisfactory condition.

- World
· Turkey has set a quota for the import of 1 million tons of corn with reduced tariffs by the end of June. This decision is expected to increase demand from Ukraine and Romania - the leading exporters of this crop from the Black Sea region, supporting exports and prices on the world market.
· IGC estimates the production of grain and oilseeds in 25/26 MY: wheat - 807 million tons (against 799 million tons in 24/25 MY), corn - 1269 million tons (1217 million tons), soybeans - 427 million tons (418 million tons).

- CORN
The corn market continues to grow rapidly. During the week, prices in Ukrainian ports have risen by an average of 8-10$. The increase in the supply of grain crops could not slow down this growth, because the high demand both in the domestic market and from external buyers creates price pressure. In the ports of Odessa, corn was traded at a price of 229-232 $/t DAP, and on the western border — 214-216 €/t FCA.
Corn of the new crop also started to be more actively traded. Its value at the port is 204-206 $/t DAP.

Crop 2025
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) ~204-206$
· DAP Germany (Mon-Fri) ~218-220€
· DAP Netherlands (pd) ~215-217€

- WHEAT
The internal market demonstrates dynamic growth. Low food wheat stocks limit the supply, supporting price increases, and the rise in price of corn, which competes with forage wheat in the feed market, further stimulates the growth of the value of forage grain.
The demand for feed wheat of the new crop is growing in the European market. For Germany, prices are 216-219 €/t DAP, for the Netherlands 212-215 €/t DAP.

Crop 2025
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) 12.5pro ~218-220$
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) 11.5pro ~215-217$
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) fodder ~205-208$
· DAP Germany (Mon-Sun) trucks ~216-219€
· DAP Netherlands (pd) trucks ~212-215€

- SUNFLOWER
The increase in the cost of sunflower oil in the world markets over the past week by 25$ caused the price of sunflower in Ukraine to increase. Strengthening the hryvnia could not hold back this growth - the prices of sunflower rose by 600-800 UAH/t. This is due to high demand from processors under limited supply, as farmers restrain sales of sunflower.
In the spot market sunflower oil was traded in the range of 1140-1145 $/t DAP port, and granulated sunflower meal - 230-235 $/t DAP port.
At the same time, the plants are already more actively contracting a new crop of sunflower, offering $ 550/t of VAT per batch with 46% oil content on DAP ports.

- SOYA
Limited supply on the market has led to a slight increase in soybeans prices. The demand from buyers is present, but they are not ready to significantly increase prices, as world soybean quotes remain at the minimum levels.

Mar 21 - By the numbers: Stacking up US farm imports and exports -Braun
Countries typically import products when domestic demand exceeds domestic production, or if domestic production is non-existent. But what the United States exports differs widely from what it imports, and it is important to examine those trends to understand where opportunities or threats may lie for U.S. producers. 

Mar 21 - IGC sees rise in global corn production in 2025/26
The International Grains Council on Thursday forecast a rise in global corn production in the 2025/26 season with larger crops seen in the United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. The intergovernmental body, in its monthly update, projected there would be a global corn crop of 1.269 billion metric tons, up from 1.217 billion in the previous season.

Mar 20 - Proposed US port fees on China-built ships begins choking coal, agriculture exports
President Donald Trump's plan to revive U.S. shipbuilding using massive fees on China-linked ship visits to American ports is causing U.S. coal inventories to swell and stoking uncertainty in the embattled agriculture market, as exporters struggle to find ships to send goods abroad. Trump is drafting an executive order that would rely on funding from a U.S. Trade Representative proposal to levy fines of up to $1.5 million on China-made ships or vessels from fleets that include ships made in China.  

Mar 20 - Chicago corn prices set to challenge decades-long streaks: Braun
If the recent tariff-fueled selloff in Chicago corn futures felt extreme, that’s because it was, especially given the season. Huge swings in new-crop corn prices are not typically seen in the beginning months of the year due to upcoming harvest uncertainties across the Americas.

Mar 19 - CME Group to launch European rapeseed oil futures
Financial markets operator CME Group said on Tuesday that it plans to launch cash-settled futures for European rapeseed oil next month, using an Argus Media index for Dutch prices. The new product will start trading on April 28, subject to regulatory approval, through CME's Chicago Board of Trade exchange, the company said in a notice on its website. 

Mar 19 - EU 2024/25 soybean imports up 7% by March 16, rapeseed up 15%
European Union soybean imports for the 2024/25 season, which began in July, had reached 9.6 million metric tons by March 16, up 7% from the same period a year earlier, according to data published by the European Commission. EU rapeseed imports in the same period totalled 4.75 million tons, up 15% year-on-year Meanwhile, soymeal imports were up 27% to 13.36 million tons.

Mar 18 - China renews export registrations for US pork, poultry plants, industry groups say
Beijing has renewed registrations that allow hundreds of U.S. pork and poultry facilities to export to China, industry groups said on Monday, after lapses threatened shipments to the world's largest meat importer. Chinese customs website showed that registrations were renewed until 2030, but those for hundreds of U.S. beef facilities remain listed as "expired".

Mar 18 - US reports first outbreak of deadly H7N9 bird flu since 2017
The United States reported the first outbreak of the deadly H7N9 bird flu on a poultry farm since 2017, as the country continues to grapple with another bird flu strain that has infected humans and caused egg prices to hit record highs. The spread of avian influenza, commonly called bird flu, has ravaged flocks around the world, disrupting supply and fuelling higher food prices.

Mar 17 - China access for hundreds of US meat exporters in doubt as Trump 1.0 deal nears end
Hundreds of U.S. meat plants granted access to China in a 2020 "Phase 1" trade deal with President Donald Trump are set to lose export eligibility on Sunday, threatening roughly $5 billion in trade to the world's largest meat market amid a renewed trade war. 

Mar 17 - Brazil domestic corn prices rise on low initial inventories, strong demand
Brazilian corn prices closed up by around 2% this week, hitting close to 90 reais per 60-kilogram bag in the region of Campinas, according to the widely followed Cepea indicator on Friday. This is the highest nominal level since April 2022.

Mar 14 - What's behind the clashing ideas over Brazil's shrinking corn stocks?: Braun
According to its own statistics agency, Brazil’s corn supplies as of a few weeks ago hit the lowest levels in at least a quarter-century. But the U.S. Department of Agriculture does not expect a scenario like that to unfold until early next year.

Mar 14 - China set for rapeseed meal shortage after 100% duty on top supplier Canada
China is likely to face a supply shortage of rapeseed meal by the third quarter of this year as Beijing's tariffs on shipments from top exporter Canada disrupt trade and as alternative sources are unlikely to make up the deficit. Rapeseed meal futures traded on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange have jumped more than 8% since Beijing announced on Saturday a 100% retaliatory tariff on imports of rapeseed meal and oil from Canada effective March 20.

Mar 14 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch-flower @224$->226$
Crop 2025
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @203$

- Ukraine
· Spring crops were sown in Ukraine. As of 13.03 spring crops were sown in Ukraine: wheat - 12.9 thousand ha, barley - 45.2 thousand ha.
· USDA updated in March data on grain and oilseeds crops in Ukraine: wheat - 23.4 million tons (preliminary assessment - 22.9 million tons), corn - 26.8 million tons (25.5 million tons), barley - 5.8 million tons (5.9 million tons), soybeans - 7 million tons (6.6 million tons), rape - 3.8 million tons (3.75 million tons), sunflower - 13.4 million tons (12.9 million tons).

- World
· The EU introduces counter duties on goods from the United States. While cereals and oilseeds are not limited, but if the States in April introduce 25% of the customs duty on all goods from the EU, Brussels will respond in a similar way, which will complicate the export of corn and soybeans and aggravate trade confrontation.
· The strike by workers at processing plants in Argentina due to the dismissal has led to a halt in soybean processing, which can adversely affect the export of soybean products.

- CORN
Prices for corn began to recover. In foreign markets, there is a positive dynamics, increasing trade activity and demand.
In the domestic market, liquidity remains low, high demand and limited supply contribute to the rise in price of old harvest corn. For a week, prices in the ports of Odessa increased by an average of 4-6$. At the same time, corn of the new crop was traded at 200-202$ depending on the delivery period.

Crop 2025
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) ~200-202$
· DAP Germany (Mon-Fri) ~213-215€
· DAP Netherlands (pd) ~215-217€
· FCA Ukraine (border) ~182-185€

- WHEAT
After a sharp fall last week, wheat prices began to recover and are growing rapidly. Exporters show particular interest in food wheat. At the same time, a significant part of the grain of this quality was actively sold to the domestic market to processors, which now leads to a significant deficit for export.

Crop 2025
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) 12.5pro ~213-215$
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) 11.5pro ~211-213$
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) fodder ~201-203$
· DAP Germany (Mon-Sun) trucks ~213-215€
· DAP Netherlands (pd) trucks ~212-214€

- SUNFLOWER
Demand for sunflower from European processors is weakening, especially in Bulgaria. Due to the lack of both local raw materials and imported directly from Ukraine, the plants are forced to switch to rape processing and increase its supplies.
In the Ukrainian market, sunflower prices rose under the influence of high demand from processors caused by unmet needs. Limited supply provided additional support to the growth - farmers restrain sales in anticipation of better prices. Classic sunflower was traded in the range of 26200-27000 UAH depending on the region and quality. At the same time, the premium for HE sunflower has increased to 6000 UAH relative to the price of the classical one.

- SOYA
The domestic soybean market remains inactive due to low trading activity. There is a demand from buyers, but supply is limited - farmers are holding back sales because of disadvantageous prices, while buyers are not willing to pay more because of low prices in the foreign market. This creates a dead end in the market.

Mar 13 - North America coffee industry seeks answers amid trade war
North American coffee market participants are seeking clarity on how the trade war started by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump impacts their businesses across the region, where operations are highly interconnected. Companies have roasting, packaging and trading bases in both the United States and Canada in order to better supply clients.  

Mar 13 - Canadian farmers to boost wheat and cut canola, Statistics Canada says
Canadian farmers intend to plant more wheat, corn, oats and peas in 2025 than they did last year and cut canola, soybeans, barley and lentils, Statistics Canada reported on Wednesday. However, farmers' commitment to those planting plans is more up-in-the-air than ever before, say some farmers and analysts, because of the tariff threats being aimed at Canada by major trading partners.

Mar 12 - Brazil seeks more tax-exempt sugar exports to US
Brazil will pitch boosting tax-free sugar exports to the United States in talks in Washington, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters, as the South American country aims to protect the sector amid possible U.S. ethanol tariff increases. Brazil's sugar industry has historically sought to increase the quota of tax-free sugar exports to the United States without success. 

Mar 12 - World soybean stockpiles might be smaller than they seem: Braun
Every oilseed trader is familiar with the present narrative: the world is awash with soybeans. It's true, global soybean stocks are set to hit record highs later this year. The situation is not exactly tight. But supplies are now expected to fall well short of previously predicted levels.

Mar 11 - Brazil aims to boost food stocks in bid to fight inflation
Brazilian crop agency Conab, which plans to build up grain stocks in a bid to rein in rising food inflation, is seeking to change rules governing procurement contracts, agency head Edegar Pretto said on Monday. The current rules were designed to help farmers when prices are low but the government faces new challenges, Pretto said in a statement to Reuters. 

Mar 11 - India likely to produce record 115.4 million tons of wheat, farm ministry says  
India is likely to produce a record 115.4 million metric tons of wheat in 2025, the farm ministry said on Monday, as higher state-set guaranteed prices prompted farmers to expand the area planted with high-yielding seed varieties. India, the world's biggest wheat producer after China, produced 113.3 million tons of wheat in 2024, according to the farm ministry.

Mar 10 - The end of cheap palm oil? Output stalls as biodiesel demand surges
Prices of cooking oil could be buoyed up for years by stagnating production and a biodiesel push in top producer Indonesia that are making traditionally cheap palm oil costlier, eliminating an advantage that also curbed prices of rival oils. Used in everything from cakes and frying fats to cosmetics and cleaning products, palm oil makes up more than half of global vegetable oil shipments and is especially popular among consumers in emerging markets, led by India. 

Mar 10 - Spooked by tariffs, funds purge bullish corn bets in near-record fashion: Braun
An imminent trade war between the United States and its two largest agricultural trading partners sent bullish Chicago corn speculators running for the hills last week. But very few bears were made of the ordeal. On Thursday, U.S. tariffs against most Mexican and Canadian goods were postponed until April. However, the levies had gone into effect on Tuesday and the market reaction was harsh, especially with Mexico the top destination for U.S. corn.

Mar 07 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch @221$->218$
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch @1'112$

- Ukraine
· Exports from Ukraine of grain, oilseeds and their products in February according to the UAIS State Customs Service amounted to: corn - 2 160 thousand tons, wheat - 1 163 thousand tons, barley - 74.1 thousand tons, soybeans 391.2 - thousand tons, rape - 30.6  thousand tons, sunflower - 0.76 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 291 thousand tons, soybean oil - 45.7 thousand tons, cake - 206.1 thousand tons.

- World
· On March 4, 25% import duties from Canada and Mexico and increased customs duties on Chinese goods came into effect, which caused retaliation. The next day, the White House temporarily relaxed restrictions on trade, but trade tensions continued to increase market uncertainty.
· Due to the trade war with the United States, China is increasing its budget for 2025 to develop its own grain production and changing trade flows, increasing purchases in South America, Europe and the Pacific.

- CORN
The beginning of the week was marked by a fall in the prices of corn on the Ukrainian market, which was caused not only by the overheated domestic market and the accumulation of stocks by traders in ports, but also by a decrease in quotations on world trading platforms. However, by mid-week, the decline had stopped and some buyers began to raise prices. At the end of the week corn in the ports of Odessa was traded within 218-222 $/t DAP.
Corn of the new crop also suffered a fall and was traded at levels 195-198 $/t DAP ports (October-December).

Crop 2025
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) ~195-198$
· DAP Germany (Mon-Fri) ~213-215€
· FCA Ukraine (border) ~182-185€

- WHEAT
Low trade activity in the foreign market remains, which puts pressure on prices, and the fall in futures on the Chicago and European exchanges only strengthened negative sentiment. During the week, buyers' prices decreased by an average of 5-8 €/t depending on the direction.
The domestic market has also been under pressure from external factors - for a week the prices in ports decreased by an average of $ 6-8/t.

Crop 2025
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) 12.5pro ~216-218$
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) 11.5pro ~214-216$
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) fodder ~203-205$
· DAP Germany (Mon-Sun) trucks ~213-215€

- SUNFLOWER
Fluctuations in the prices of sunflower oil in the world negatively affected the Ukrainian market. During the week, the price of sunflower fell on average by 500 UAH/t. Trade activity remains sluggish, as the supply of oilseeds from producers is low. At the same time, most refiners remain uncoated for March-April, which may support the market in the short term.

- SOYA
The drop in soybean futures on the US exchange has only exacerbated the difficult situation in the market, as trading activity on both the foreign and domestic market remains low.

Mar 07 - Brazil braces for more Chinese demand, higher food prices amid US trade war
U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war with China will give Brazilian agricultural exporters an opportunity to take an even bigger share of the Chinese market at the expense of American farmers, but it could also fuel already high food inflation in Brazil. China this week retaliated swiftly to fresh U.S. duties announced by Trump, imposing hikes of 10% and 15% in levies covering $21 billion worth of American agricultural goods, including meat and soybeans. 

Mar 07 - Global demand forecasts for US crops to factor in tariffs in effect, USDA says
A monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture supply and demand report due next week will consider trade policies in place when the forecasts for grains and soybeans are issued, an agency official said on Thursday, as President Donald Trump suspended tariffs he imposed this week on Canada and Mexico. Grain traders and farmers will look closely at how USDA adjusts its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, due on March 11, as tariffs have fueled worries the U.S. will lose export markets for farm products.

Mar 06 - Celeres lowers forecast for Brazil's soybean crop on hot, dry weather
Agribusiness consultancy Celeres reduced its estimate for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean crop due to adverse weather in some center-southern states, but still sees production at an all-time high, it said in a report on Wednesday. Farmers in the South American country are expected to reap 171.6 million metric tons this year, Celeres said, down from a previous estimate of 174 million tons. 

Mar 06 - China to boost food imports from Latin America, Europe as US trade war escalates
China's new tariffs on U.S. farm goods are poised to reshape global trade flows, prompting the world's top agricultural importer to source more meat, dairy and grains from countries in South America, Europe and the Pacific. Shipments to China from key soybean supplier Brazil, top wheat exporter Australia and major pork supplier Europe, could surge as a trade war hots up between the world's largest economies, industry officials and analysts said.

Mar 05 - China raises 2025 budget for grain stockpiling, targets higher domestic output
China raised its annual grain production target to around 700 million metric tons and expanded its agriculture stockpile budget, pushing for stronger measures to safeguard food supplies as tensions with trade partners intensify. The world's largest importer of farm goods brought in more than 157 million metric tons of grains and soybeans last year but is seeking to cut its heavy dependence on supplies that mostly come from the United States and Brazil. 

Mar 05 - US farmers face higher costs, fewer markets from tariffs, farm groups warn
U.S. President Donald Trump's new tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China threaten to hurt the $191 billion American agricultural export sector and raise costs for farmers struggling with low crop prices, farm groups warned on Tuesday. Trump imposed 25% duties on imports from Mexico and Canada and doubled duties on Chinese goods to 20%, sparking trade wars with the biggest buyers of U.S. farm products.

Mar 04 - Argentina's grains export revenue jumps 45% in February
Argentina's farm sector brought in a total $2.18 billion through exports in February, a 45% increase compared to the same month a year earlier, the CIARA-CEC chamber of oilseed and grains crushers and exporters said on Monday. The boost in export revenue was thanks to a presidential decree in late January that temporarily reduced grain export taxes, CIARA-CEC said.

Mar 04 - US soybean price for crop insurance hits 5-year low, corn up from 2024
Crop insurance price projections that can be used to determine indemnities for the 2025 growing season are the lowest for soybeans since 2020 but up a few cents per bushel for corn compared to last year, data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed on Monday. The USDA's Risk Management Agency set crop insurance base prices at $4.70 per bushel for corn and $10.54 a bushel for soybeans across most of the U.S. crop belt.  

Mar 03 - China targets US agriculture over Trump tariff threat, Global Times says
China has American agricultural exports in its cross hairs as it prepares countermeasures against fresh U.S. import tariffs, China's state-backed Global Times reported, raising the stakes in an escalating trade war between the world's top two economies. U.S. President Donald Trump last week threatened China with the extra 10% duty set to take effect on Tuesday, resulting in a cumulative 20% tariff, and accused Beijing of not doing enough to halt the flow of fentanyl into America, which China said was tantamount to "blackmail." 

Mar 03 - Beef prices may rise as Canadian ranchers shrink cattle herds, fearing Trump tariffs
Canadian farmer Jon Vaags quit buying beef cattle in November after the election of U.S. President Donald Trump made tariffs on Canadian exports seem like a serious risk. Now there are more than 1,000 empty spaces on his feedlot, where cattle are fattened on grain before being slaughtered for beef.

Feb 28 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb-birch @226$->224$
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch @1'135$
Crop 2025
· DAP corn Odessa, Ukraine, Yellow Leaf @...
· Oct FCA border Ukraine, Oct-Nov @...

- Ukraine
· According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, soybeans acreages can be reduced by 10-15% in 2025 and sunflowers by 5% due to the accretion of maize acreage.
· Exports from Ukraine of cereals, oilseeds and their processing products, which are decorated from February 1 to 26, amounted to: corn - 1 990 thousand tons, wheat - 1 051 thousand tons, barley - 56.9 thousand tons, soybeans 361.8 - thousand tons, rape - 28.1 thousand tons, sunflower - 0.7 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 298.8 thousand tons, soybean oil - 54 thousand tons, oilcake (soybean and sunflower) - 327.5 thousand tons.

- World
· In India, hot weather is expected in March, which may affect wheat yields and force authorities to revise import tax to ensure supplies.
· Mexico has passed a law prohibiting the sowing of GMO corn, which may lead to new disputes with the United States, since the reform also applies to the use of such grain.

- CORN
The decline in trading activity due to the glut of the market by the supply from key exporters led to the fall in corn prices in Europe. On average, the decline was 3-5€ depending on the direction. Additional pressure also caused a weakening of quotations on the exchange Matif.
In the domestic market, the price of corn harvest in 2024 for the week remained almost unchanged. In the ports of Odessa grain was traded within 223-225 $/t DAP, and on the western border - 208-212 €/t FCA. At the same time, corn of the new crop continues to be in high demand, which contributed to the price increase to 202-203 $/t DAP ports (October-December).

Crop 2025
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) ~202-203$
· DAP Germany (Mon-Fri) ~221-223€
· FCA Ukraine (border) ~185-190€

- WHEAT
The fall in wheat futures on key trading platforms has put pressure on foreign markets, resulting in lower physical market prices. At the same time, the Ukrainian market remains stable - during the week wheat prices have not changed. Limited supply of grain producers holding back the fall.

Crop 2025
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) 12.5pro ~216-218$
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) 11.5pro ~214-216$
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) fodder ~203-205$
· DAP Germany (Mon-Sun) trucks ~220-222€

- SUNFLOWER
Prices for sunflower are reduced, having lost an average of 300-400 UAH per ton in a week. The main factor of this was the fall in the quotations of sunflower oil in the foreign market, which forced the plants to adjust the purchase prices. However, the needs of the refiners remain uncovered for March, as manufacturers refrain from selling large batches.

- SOYA
The high supply of North and South American soybeans continues to saturate the European market. This negatively affects the Ukrainian market, where soybean prices have decreased. Limited demand and reduced trade activity only exacerbate this pressure.

Feb 28 - US farmers to plant more corn, less soy in 2025, USDA says
U.S. farmers will plant more acres of corn and less of soybeans in 2025 than they did a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Thursday. The USDA forecast corn seedings of 94.0 million acres, up from 90.6 million in 2024, and soybean seedings of 84.0 million acres, down from 87.1 million last year.  

Feb 28 - India braces for scorching March, wheat crop at risk, sources say
India is poised to enter the summer season with one of the warmest March months on record, and above-average temperatures throughout most of the month threaten to cut yields of the maturing wheat crop, two weather bureau sources said. India, the world's second-biggest wheat producer, is counting on a bumper harvest in 2025 to avoid costly imports, after three consecutive years of poor crop yields since 2022.

Feb 27 - SovEkon lowered forecast of Russian wheat exports in the 2024/25 season
SovEkon lowered its forecast for wheat exports in the 2024/25 season by 0.6 million tons to 42.2 million tons. Last season, 52.4 million tons were shipped from Russia, an average of 44.2 million tons over three years. The estimate was revised against the background of low shipping rates.

- Shipment rates remain below average. SovEkon estimates wheat exports in February at 2.0m tons, compared to 4.1m tons a year earlier and 2.9m tons in an average of five years.

- Low margins in export operations are a major constraint on wheat sales. Current Russian exporters’ margins are in negative territory, up from around $10 in November.

- The Government of the Russian Federation has set a quota for the export of wheat and meslin in the amount of 10.6 million tons. We believe that large traders who received the main quotas for February-June, will not rush to ship, primarily focusing on increasing their margins. The quota may not be fully selected against this background.

In the short term, the ruble’s appreciation also acts as a deterrent to exports. On February 21, the Central Bank of Russia set the dollar at 88.5 rubles against 102.0 rubles a month earlier. At the same time, the weekly duty reflects the strengthening of the ruble with a delay.
The slow pace of Russian exports has been a factor in supporting world prices. Since the beginning of the year, the price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein has increased by $12 to $248/t FOB.

- In February, the U.S. Department of Agriculture downgraded its estimate of Russian exports by 0.5 million tons to 45.5 million tons.

SovEkon also raised its estimate of wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 0.6 million tons to 38.9 million tons, against the background of a reduction in the export rate in the current season and an increase in carry-over reserves.
Slow exports could further support global prices. 

Feb 27 - Brazil judge rejects traders' request to halt grain export tax
A Brazilian judge has thrown out a request by global grain traders to halt enforcement of a law that imposes a 1.8% tax on the export of grains such as soybeans and corn from the state of Maranhao, according to the decision seen by Reuters. Abiove, a lobby group representing grains exporters, which hoped to get an injunction against the charge, argued the state law was unconstitutional in a case filed last week.

Feb 27 - American farmers to plant more corn, seeking best chance at profits
Farmers in the U.S. plan to plant more corn and fewer soybeans this spring than they did last year, hoping to eke out a profit and shield themselves from U.S. President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs, growers and analysts said. "When you look at relative profitability, corn is winning the acreage battle," said Frayne Olson, an agricultural economist with North Dakota State University. 

Feb 27 - Slowing demand to pressure palm oil prices as alternatives gain market share
A recovery in palm oil production and lower imports by price-sensitive consumers are expected to drive prices lower, chipping away the premium of the tropical oil over rivals, even as top producer Indonesia boosts biodiesel production. Benchmark palm oil futures, which jumped 20% in 2024 to a two-year high, have already lost market share as top importers like India shift to cheaper alternatives such as soybean and sunflower oils.

Feb 26 - Raw sugar price rally likely to be short-lived as supply improves
A recent price rally that took ICE raw sugar futures to a more than two-month high will be short-lived as supply from the top two producers, Brazil and India, is expected to increase later this year, a Reuters poll of nine traders and analysts showed.The sweetener is set to close the year at 18.25 cents per lb, down 13.5% from Monday's close and also below the level seen at the end of 2024, according to the poll's median forecast.  

Feb 26 - Palm oil's premium over soyoil to diminish in coming months, says analyst Mielke
Palm oil's price premium over soyoil is expected to decrease within the next one to three months, as higher prices have been moderating demand in key consuming markets such as India, leading industry analyst Thomas Mielke said. Palm oil stocks could start rising in the coming months if demand fails to pick up, Mielke, executive director of Hamburg-based forecaster Oil World, said at an industry conference.

Feb 25 - Most EU grain crops in good shape but moisture risks linger
Grain crops in the European Union were still mainly in good condition by mid-February, but excess moisture in France and dryness in Eastern Europe remained risks for this year's harvest, the EU's crop monitoring service said on Monday. In France, heavy rainfall in the northwest in January exacerbated already-high soil moisture levels, creating unfavourable conditions for crop development, MARS said in a report. 

Feb 25 - Recent rains in Argentina mark 'inflection point' for soy, corn crops
Recent heavy rainfall across much of Argentina's agricultural heartland is likely to continue over the next few days and mark an "inflection point" for the current soybean and corn crops, the Rosario grains exchange (BCR) said on Monday. More than 100 millimeters (3.9 inches) of rain soaked farmland over the last few days, helping to cement a recovery from drought conditions and a heat wave that hit 2024/25 crops in late January and earlier this month.

Feb 24 - Brazil ICE sugar hedging seen at 72% of expected 2025/26 exports
Brazilian mills have hedged 72.5% of the expected sugar exports for the 2025/26 season (April/March), or around 21.75 million metric tons, using ICE futures contracts, according to a report by risk advisory firm Archer Consulting on Friday. That size of hedging is larger than seen at the same time a year ago (59.2%), but smaller than in some of the previous crops, Archer said, adding that mills hedged some 3.5 million tons in January alone at an average price of 17.66 cents per pound. 

Feb 24 - India likely to raise vegetable oil import taxes to help support local farmers
India is likely to raise import taxes on vegetable oils for the second time in less than six months to help support thousands of oilseed farmers reeling from a crash in domestic oilseed prices, two government sources said on Friday. The hike in import duties by the world's largest importer of edible oils could lift local vegetable oil and oilseed prices, while potentially dampening demand and reducing overseas purchases of palm oil, soyoil, and sunflower oil.

Feb 21 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch @232$
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb-berez @228$
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch @222.5$->223$
· DAP corn Mon. Italy, birch-flower @252€
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb-birch @1'118$->1'122$

- World
· The Trump administration expects a deal with China, which provides for significant purchases of agricultural products from the United States.
· Taiwan and Thailand have announced plans to increase imports of agricultural products from the United States in order to equalize trade balance and avoid tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
· Lower soybean crop forecasts in Brazil and Argentina, as well as high temperatures in recent years, support price increases on major international trading platforms.

- CORN
Corn prices continued to rise this week. In the current market context, sellers naturally refrained from offers, which additionally supported the growth of prices. At the same time, prices in CIF markets were trading at $ 5-6 below the price parity at CPT in Ukraine, which signals the overheating of the local market.
Seasonal corn can adjust to $10 per ton starting next week. The new crop remained unchanged and traded between $200-203 per ton at DAP ports (October-December).

Crop 2025
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) ~200-202$
· DAP Germany (Mon-Fri) ~223-225€

- WHEAT
Talks about the possible end of the war added a negative tone to the wheat market. Funds have started to eliminate long positions on the stock exchange, which may indicate a potential suspension of the growing trend.
At the same time, wheat prices rose by $ 5 per ton compared to the previous week.

Crop 2025
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) 12.5pro ~216-218$
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) 11.5pro ~214-216$
· DAP Ukraine (Odessa) fodder ~203-205$
· DAP Germany (Mon-Sun) trucks ~225-227€

- SUNFLOWER
Some plants are already considering the possibility of launching a program for the purchase of rapeseed, which leads to a decrease in activity in the purchase of sunflower. The overall market context for oil was favorable for the growth of sunflower prices.
Prices increased by 500 UAH per ton compared to last week.

Crop 2025
· DAP Ukraine (factory) 46% (dry) ~440-455$ (excl. VAT)

- SOYA
GMo soya traded in the range of 390-395$ DAP ports of the Black Sea, but by the end of the week, prices fell to 390$.
Foreign markets are pressuring the supply of North and South American soybeans, which significantly limits the further increase in prices of legumes.

Feb 21 - IGC trims global corn crop forecast as South America outlook cut
The International Grains Council (IGC) has cut its forecast for 2024/25 global corn production, largely reflecting a diminished outlook for crops in Brazil and Argentina. The inter-governmental body, in a monthly update, reduced its 2024/25 corn production forecast by 3 million metric tons to 1.216 billion tons.

Feb 21 - Brazil's ever-expanding soybean area may face challenges from China: BraunGlobal soybean exporting giant Brazil has increased plantings of the oilseed for 18 consecutive years, a staggering streak unmatched in the industry. But for how much longer can Brazil continue boosting area before potentially running into an oversupply situation?

Feb 20 - China Pig Feed and Aquafeed Production Decreased in 2024, But Fishmeal Consumption Increased (JCIchina)
     
    According to data released by the Chinese Feed Industry Association, China’s feed production was 31.503 million MT in 2024, down 2.1% from 2023. In particular, pig feed production was 14.391 million MT, down 3.9%; aquafeed production was 22.62 million MT, a decline of 3.5%. Despite the production decline, fishmeal consumption increased. JCI estimated that China’s fishmeal consumption was approximately 2.194 million MT in 2024, increasing 10.3% from 2023.
    Then, why did such situation happen last year? Fishmeal consumption increased While feed production decreased. According to our analysis, firstly, the poor performance of aquaculture was unfavorable for fishmeal consumption, but hog sector switched from a 14-month bearish market to a bullish market, bringing certain support to fishmeal consumption by pig feed industry. Now, hog farming in China is still profitable.
    Secondly, with fishmeal supply recovering dramatically in China in 2024, fishmeal price saw significant declines, with super prime fishmeal quotes down from RMB19,000/MT in 2023 to as low as RMB13,000/MT in 2024, a relatively reasonable level. Therefore, feed producers increased their fishmeal use in feed formula.
    This year, we will keep a close eye on fishmeal supply in China, as well as hog and aquaculture farming profits, and fishmeal price levels, which are important factors influencing fishmeal consumption.

Feb 20 - High temperatures return to Argentina's grains belt, rains expected later
Argentina's key agricultural region will see maximum temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius (95°F) in the coming days, followed by rainfall in the early part of next week, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Wednesday. Argentina, the world's leading exporter of processed soybeans, and the third largest supplier of corn, keeps a close watch over both crops, which are currently in critical stages of development and key to the South American nation's economy. 

Feb 20 - Brazil 2024/25 soy forecast cut due to drought during crop tour
Brazilian soybean farmers will reap 171.3 million metric tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 season, less than the 172.4 million tons forecast in January, agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult said on Wednesday after inspecting about half of the fields in a nationwide crop tour. Though 1.1 million smaller than forecast in January, the crop will be 15.8 million tons larger that last season's, and will still be a record.

Feb 19 - EU 2024/25 soft wheat exports down 36% by February 16
European Union soft wheat exports since the start of the 2024/25 season in July had reached 13.33 million metric tons by February 16, compared to 13 million the previous week, and down 36% on a year earlier, European Commission data showed on Tuesday. A breakdown of this season's volumes showed Romania remained the largest EU soft wheat exporter, with 3.77 million tons so far, followed by Lithuania with 1.96 million tons, Latvia with 1.65 million tons, Germany with 1.50 million tons, and France with 1.46 million tons. 

Feb 19 - EU plans to restrict imported crops treated with banned pesticides, draft shows
The European Union is planning tougher restrictions on imported crops treated with pesticides banned in Europe, a draft European Commission document showed, a move that would impact suppliers including the U.S. U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday shrugged off an earlier report of the EU plans from the Financial Times, which cited unnamed EU officials as saying they would present the idea this week.

Feb 18 - SovEkon: Wheat purchasing prices decreased for the first time in a year
The purchase prices of wheat with protein 12.5% in deep sea ports last week fell to 17,300-17,800 rub/t from 17,800-18,400 rub/t a week earlier. This is the first decrease in purchase prices since the beginning of the year. Prices of Russian wheat have decreased due to weakening of demand from exporters.

Exporters' demand has fallen since the February 15 introduction of a TRQ on exports. Previously, traders had sought to ship grain before the quotas went into effect, so that the quantities would not be taken into account in their allocation.
On February 14, the Central Bank of Russia set the USDRUB rate at 91.0 (-6.1% week to week).

At the same time, wheat export quotations continued to rise. Last week, the stock rose $1 to $242-246/t FOB.
Despite higher FOB prices and lower transshipment rates, exporters’ margins remain deeply negative, contributing to a slowdown in exports. SovEkon estimates February wheat exports at 2.0m tons, compared to 4.1m tons last year and 2.9m tons in an average of five years.

In the near term, exporters will try to reduce purchase prices, which will put pressure on the domestic market. On the other hand, low inventories of farmers in major export regions may support ruble prices.

Feb 18 - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean harvest 23% complete, AgRural says
Brazil's soybean harvest for the 2024/25 season reached 23% of the planted area as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up 8 percentage points from the previous week. At the same time last year, 32% of the total area had been reaped, AgRural added. 

Feb 18 - Crucial weekend rains brought relief to Argentina's agricultural heartlands, report says
Rainfall recorded over the weekend in Argentina was crucial in preventing further losses in the 2024/25 soybean and corn cycle, the Rosario grains exchange said in a report on Monday. The exchange cut its soybean and corn harvest estimates last week to 47.5 million and 46 million metric tons respectively due to the impact of a drought in January.

Feb 17 - Russia's IKAR trims grain crop forecasts, warns of approaching frosts
Russia's IKAR agricultural consultancy on Friday trimmed its overall forecast for Russia's 2025 grain crop to 129 million metric tons from 130 million tons previously, saying that approaching frosts were a risk for winter crops. Russia's main breadbasket regions have experienced an unusually mild winter so far this year, with snow cover that protects winter crops melting completely. Now frosts are on their way in European Russia.  

Feb 17 - French wheat conditions near last year's low after heavy rains
The state of soft wheat in the largest European Union producer France are close to last year's four-year low, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed on Friday, confirming concerns that wet winter weather may have damaged crops. First ratings on the condition of cereals in France after a winter pause showed that 73% of soft wheat was in good or excellent condition by February 10, slightly above a four-year low of 68% a year ago.

Feb 14 - China Said to Have Transferred/Delayed Wheat Orders Again... Will Import Volume Decline Further in 2025? (JCI China)

    According to a report on February 5, China may have postponed or resold about 10 ships or 600,000 tons of imported wheat, mainly Australian wheat and some Canadian wheat, as domestic wheat supply remains sufficient and the price keeps weak. An Australian trader claimed that China has postponed the import or resale of 8 to 10 shipments of Australian wheat originally scheduled for delivery in January or February 2025, and has not booked goods for March 2025. Industry sources say that the delayed wheat imports are expected to arrive after March 2025. Due to the bumper harvest of corn and wheat in China in 2024, domestic wheat inventory is sufficient, and the corn price is low, so the imported wheat will be mainly used for food rather than feed.

Feb 14 - Argentina soybean crop faring well after recent rains
More than 60% of Argentina's soy crop is in average-to-excellent condition after recent rains refreshed the fields, which had been battered by hot, dry weather, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said on Thursday. Argentina is the world's leading exporter of soybean oil and meal. The exchange estimates this season's soybean output at 49.6 million metric tons.

Feb 14 - Ukraine Weekly  Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
Crop 2024
· wheat 11.0pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb-birch @228$
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb @10'200₴
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch @218$
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb @391$
· soybean without GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb @430$
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb @1'090$
Crop 2025
· DAP corn Odessa, Ukraine, yellow-leaf ...

- Ukraine
· February estimates of USDA on changing grain exports from Ukraine to 24/25 MY: wheat - 15.5 million tons (preliminary assessment - 16 million tons), corn - 22 million tons (preliminary assessment - 23 million tons).
· Exports from Ukraine of cereals, oilseeds and their processing products, which are decorated from 1 to 12 February amounted to: corn - 747.1 thousand tons, wheat - 650.6 thousand tons, barley - 42.2 thousand tons, soybean 203.6 - thousand tons, rape - 19 thousand tons, sunflower - 0.15 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 126.1 thousand tons, soybean oil - 31.1 thousand tons, cake (soybean and sunflower) - 125.6 thousand tons.

- Europe
· Imports of soft wheat to the EU from July 1 to February 9 amounted to 5.1 million tons, which is 14% less than last year. Ukraine's import time decreased to 66.5% (69.5% a year ago). Absolute value has decreased to 3.4 million tons (4.2 million tons a year ago). However, the share of Canada and the United States rose to 13.7% and 5.9% respectively (9.8% and 1.8% a year ago). The absolute value of these countries also increased - 0.7 million tons and 0.3 million tons respectively (0.58 million tons and 0.1 million tons a year ago).
· Imports of corn for the corresponding period is 12.4 million tons, which is 6% more than last year. Ukraine and Brazil declined to 56% and 13.1% (62.1% and 23.9% a year ago). However, the US time rose to 18.1% (0.9% a year ago).

- CORN
The corn market shows a moderate increase in external prices, but significant supply from key suppliers limits growth, despite active demand. In Ukraine, prices continue to strengthen - traders offer a premium for later deliveries of +2-3$. In addition, against the background of the expected growth of corn production in Ukraine and the United States, pushed Ukrainian farmers to more actively sign forward contracts for a new crop. Currently, deals are concluded in the range of 200-202$.

- WHEAT
Despite the growth of trade activity and the increased demand for wheat, traders are forced to limit the volume of procurement programs due to the reduction of residues and supply from producers. The main export markets for Ukrainian wheat in the current season (Jul-Sich) were Spain (2.5 million tons), Indonesia (1.5 million tons) and Egypt (0.9 million tons).

- SUNFLOWER
According to market participants, the remains of sunflower for the processing industry are about 4 million tons. Low yield and scarcity of raw materials make many factories consider "conservation" - stopping production before the new season. Meanwhile, the first forward quotations of sunflower of the new crop (46% of oil content) are discussed at 500-520 $/t with VAT.

- SOYA
Soybean prices rose against the backdrop of active domestic and external demand, particularly non-GMO beans. At the same time, a restrained offer from the producers limits the market, as farmers keep stocks in anticipation of even higher price

Feb 13 - Drought leaves Canadian farmers unpaid, reveals holes in safety net
Canadian farmer Bill Prybylski planned to buy a new tractor with proceeds from crops sold to two grain companies in early 2024. He delivered the grain before both companies declared bankruptcy, leaving him short C$165,000 ($113,487.86) they owed. Now Prybylski has no money to replace his old tractor.Hundreds of Canadian farmers have received delayed payments for their crops or not been paid at all, as a growing number of grain-buying firms declare bankruptcy amid drought and low commodity prices, according to interviews with dozens of farmers, a government agency, and a review of bankruptcy documents.  

Feb 13 - Rains refresh driest areas in Argentina's grains belt
Heavy rains have drenched the most-parched parts of Argentina's key agricultural region in recent hours, the Rosario Grains Exchange said on Wednesday, bringing relief to the soy and corn crops. The showers are the most recent in a wave of storm fronts which have rolled through the region in recent days, this time hitting areas which still needed more rain.

Feb 12 - USDA trims Argentina corn, soy harvest estimates after dry weather
Argentina, a major grain supplier, will harvest less corn and soy than previously expected after hot, dry weather hurt crops, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday. Grain traders have been closely monitoring dryness in Argentina because it is the world's top exporter of soyoil and meal, the No. 3 exporter of corn, and competes with the U.S. for global grain and soy sales. 

Feb 12 - US sugar demand falls further, production still seen at record
Sugar consumption in the United States in the 2024/25 season will fall to 12.48 million short tons (ST), the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected on Tuesday, 75,000 ST less than estimated a month earlier and 2.7% below the amount used the previous year. If the USDA's projection is confirmed, it would be the third consecutive annual decrease in sugar consumption in the U.S.

Feb 11 - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean harvest 15% complete, AgRural says
Brazil's soybean harvest for the 2024/25 season reached 15% of the planted area as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up 6 percentage points from the previous week. At the same time last year, 23% of the total area had been reaped, AgRural added in a statement, meaning work in the fields overall remains delayed and may affect sowing of Brazil's second corn crop in some areas. 

Feb 11 - EU plans simpler rules for billions worth of farm subsidies, draft shows
The European Union is drawing up plans to simplify rules governing its huge farming subsidy programme, draft documents seen by Reuters showed, as Brussels races to lighten the regulatory burden on businesses. The move could affect large sums of EU money.

Feb 10 - US farmers turn to Airbnb, corn mazes to outlast agricultural downturn
A dead-end dirt road cutting through rural Wisconsin leads to a pasture dotted with shaggy-coated Highland cattle, fluffy Icelandic sheep and a vintage Airstream trailer that farmer Brit Thompson turned into an Airbnb to capitalize on an explosion of urbanites looking to spend time in the countryside. Her guests, mostly Chicago-area professionals, offer a steady flow of income in an increasingly unstable agricultural economy. 

Feb 10 - Malaysia palm oil stocks hit 21-month low in January as output plunges
Malaysia's palm oil stocks fell more than expected in January to their lowest level in 21 months even as exports dropped and imports rose, due to a plunge in output, data from the industry regulator showed. The drop in inventories in the world's second-largest palm oil producing country after Indonesia could support benchmark futures, traders said, following a sharp decline from their highest in about 2-1/2 years in November.

Feb 07 - Mexico drops restrictions on genetically modified corn imports
Mexico has repealed import restrictions on genetically modified corn for human, livestock and industrial uses following a U.S. victory in a North America trade panel dispute. Former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador first banned such imports then reversed course to ban only those destined for human consumption. 

Feb 07 - Russia takes control of grain trader's assets
Russia's state property agency has taken control of all the assets of what was until recently Russia's largest grain trader following a court decision last week, a state property registry entry showed on Thursday. A Russian court ruled in favour of a lawsuit filed by the General Prosecutor's Office to transfer all the assets of Rodnie Polya, which exported 14% of Russian grain in the 2023/24 season, to the state, sources close to the company previously told Reuters.

Feb 07 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb @216$
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch @217.50$
· soybean without GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb @19'950₴

- Ukraine
· Ukraine has seen the worst soil moisture rate in 7 years, as November and January rainfall has been significantly lower than normal. This creates risks for the harvest of winter crops.
· Exports from Ukraine of cereals, oilseeds and their processing products, which were decorated in January amounted to: corn - 2 483 thousand tons, wheat - 891.1 thousand tons, barley - 64.9 thousand tons, soybeans 223 - thousand tons, rape - 102.8 thousand tons, sunflower - 20.1 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 378.1 thousand tons, soybean oil - 42.9 thousand tons, oilcake (soybean and sunflower) - 406.3 thousand tons.

- World
· Market tensions decreased after the US decision to postpone the introduction of export duties for Mexico and Canada per month.
· China postpones wheat imports until April because of its high crop and redirects previously purchased 600 thousand tons of wheat to Asian buyers, which is partly a bear factor for the grain market.

- CORN
During the week corn was actively traded in the direction of ports and on the western border. Buyers not only actively sell grain with delivery in March-May, but also increase forward contracts for a new harvest with shipment in October-November, which indicates positive market expectations for the upcoming season.
In the ports of Odessa, corn was traded on average at 215-217$ DAP, on the western border - 203-205€ FCA

- WHEAT
In the domestic market there is an active demand for wheat, which contributes to the increase in prices. The most dynamic rise in price is in the segment of feed grain, which leads to a reduction in the spread between food and feed wheat to 6-8$.

- SUNFLOWER
The sunflower market remains tense, because the indicative prices have undergone significant fluctuations, while the actual prices remain relatively stable. Demand from processors is retained due to lack of raw material needs coverage. Despite price cuts, factories are ready to offer competitive conditions including premiums for large batches and high oil content.

- SOYA
The soybean market is characterized by moderate trading activity. Despite the demand from the processing enterprises, the limited supply from producers restrains the volume of the concluded agreements.

Feb 06 - US food purchases for foreign aid halted despite waiver, sources say
The U.S. has stopped purchases for foreign food aid programs since the Trump administration began a sweeping review of federal aid spending, despite a waiver issued nearly two weeks ago for food assistance, according to nine sources. The freeze in purchases of wheat, soybeans and other commodities produced by U.S. farmers could hinder or halt the operations of organizations that provide millions of tons of food each year to help alleviate poverty in countries such as Madagascar, Tanzania and Honduras, the sources said.  

Feb 06 - Brazil roasters fret over fake coffee as prices soar
The Brazilian coffee industry is worried that sky-high coffee prices are leading some companies to expand offerings of what it calls fake coffee in the local market, as they seek to attract consumers who are feeling the pinch. Brazil's coffee roasters association, ABIC, recently identified in groceries powdered products marketed as coffee, but that are mostly not made with the bean.

Feb 05 - ADM 2025 outlook clouded by trade tensions, biofuel policies
Global grains trader Archer-Daniels-Midland is slashing costs and cutting staff to weather a commodity downturn made more challenging by uncertainty about U.S. biofuels policies and a brewing trade war, the company said on Tuesday. ADM's difficulties follow an accounting scandal last year that forced the company to twice revise financial statements and triggered an ongoing federal investigation. 

Feb 05 - Farmers in southern Ukraine begin 2025 grain sowing
Farmers in southern Ukraine's Mykolaiv and Kherson regions have started spring grain sowing, taking advantage of unusually warm weather, a Ukrainian lawmaker said on Tuesday. Agricultural committee member Dmytro Solomhuk said on Facebook that farmers had begun sowing spring wheat.

Feb 04 - Prices of Russian wheat are rising (SovEkon)

 Quotes for Russian wheat of the 4th class (with a protein of 12.5%) on the domestic market since the beginning of the year rose to 15,525/t ($158/t) from 14,725 rubles/t ($145/t), it follows from the report "SovEkon". Wheat prices strengthened amid strong demand from exporters.

Feb 04 - Wilted leaves on Argentina's farms signal bigger hit to soy, corn harvest
Standing in his fields among tall, dry corn plants, farmer Dario Sabini inspects the smaller-than-usual corn cobs before taking the yellowing leaves of the crop that should be green at this time of the season, to crinkle them between his fingers. "We are seeing here corn that's already gone. The plant is already yellow, it will not come back," said the farmer from the town of Veinticinco de Mayo, some 200 kilometers (125 miles) west of Buenos Aires. The town has been hit by a recent drought.  

Feb 04 - Brazil's 2025 coffee crop seen falling 1.8% to 63.2 mln bags, says exporter
Brazil's 2025 coffee crop that will be harvested from around April was projected on Monday at 63.2 million 60-kg bags, 1.8% down from the 2024 crop, exporter Comexim said on Monday, blaming adverse weather conditions for the smaller forecast. Comexim, which is one of the five largest exporters of Brazilian coffee, projected Robusta coffee production in the country at 23.3 million bags, 24% more than in 2024, while Arabica coffee crop was estimated at 39.9 million bags, or 12% less than last year.

Feb 03 - Unprecedented clash forms between funds' CBOT corn and wheat views -Braun
The recent buildup of speculators’ massively bullish Chicago corn bets has been well publicized. But the growing and now unparalleled rift between investors’ corn and wheat positions may have been less apparent. 

Feb 03 - ADM to make layoffs soon to cut costs, sources say
Global grain merchant Archer-Daniels-Midland will soon start laying off employees as part of a global effort to cut costs as low crop prices erode profit, three people briefed on the matter told Reuters on Friday. Operations in the United States would be the focus of the cuts, one of the sources said.

Feb 02 - Russia wheat exports to slow down sharply in H1 2025 due to lower harvest, export curbs.
For the week of February 5–11,

• Russia’s export tax on wheat will be 3,941.6 RUB/ton (previously 4,430.1).
• The export tax on barley will be at 3,012.5 RUB/ton (previously 3,407.8),
• and the export tax on corn will be 4,255.3 RUB/ton (previously 4,659.1).

SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports from 43.7 million tons to 42.8 million tons. Last year’s exports were 52.4 million tons, with an average of 44.2 million tons over the past three years. The forecast was reduced due to weak current exports and export sales.

Jan 31 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb @214$->215$
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch @216$
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb @384$

- Ukraine
· As of 29.01, the estimated wheat residues for export, taking into account the contracted ones for February-March, are 4.7 million tons; corn - 10 million tons; soybeans - 1.7 million tons.
· Most traders believe that this year China will not show interest in Ukrainian corn, which will force producers and exporters to look for new markets.

- World
· Reducing export taxes in Argentina will stimulate farmers to actively sell grains and oilseeds, keeping the market in suspense.
· In February, temperatures above the average are expected in India, threatening wheat yields and will add support to prices.
· The delay in soybean harvesting in Brazil due to adverse weather conditions shifts the corn sowing window, which can affect yields due to the risk of sowing in the dry season.

- CORN
On the Ukrainian market, corn prices stopped growing, lingering at 214-215$ (delivered to the port). The accumulated remains in the ports led to the oversaturation of the external market with proposals from the Ukrainian exporters for the period of delivery in February-March. At the same time, the foreign market clearly signals the presence of demand, encouraging sellers to contract later periods of supply.
New corn harvest for the first time in recent years traded at 200$ (delivered to the port) in October-November. And on the Western border, European buyers voiced demand at 195€ (loaded in the European train) in October-December. High prices for new crops contribute to the conclusion of forward contracts right now.

- WHEAT
Buyers in the foreign market demonstrate high activity, demand increases, which in turn leads to higher prices. In addition, the growth of futures on the European exchange is also affected. The Ukrainian market also demonstrates high trade activity. Demand from exporters and processing enterprises is high.

- SUNFLOWER
In the domestic market there was a rapid fall in the prices of sunflower and its products, which directly contributed to the decline in prices in the world oil market. During the week, the cost of sunflower at 46% oil content fell by 500-600 UAH and continues to decline. Despite this, the processing plants remain uncovered, which is well understood by farmers. While waiting for the market situation to improve, they reduced the sales of oilseeds.

- SOYA
The growth of demand for soybeans by both processing enterprises and traders supports an upward price trend. Despite the high production of soybeans in Ukraine, farmers refrain from active sales, expecting the best price. An additional factor of support is the active purchasing activity of external buyers, which creates an additional incentive for rising prices.

Jan 31 - India braces for warmer February, wheat crop at risk, sources sayIndia is set to see above-average temperatures in February, with key wheat- and rapeseed-growing states likely to see maximum temperatures up to 5 degrees Celsius above average on some days in a risk to crops, two weather bureau sources said. As the world's second biggest wheat producer, India is counting on a bumper harvest in 2025 to avoid costly imports, following three straight years of poor crop yields since 2022. 

Jan 31 - USDA December soy crush seen at 217.6 million bushels, analysts say
The U.S. soybean crush likely rose in December to a record-high 6.529 million short tons, or 217.6 million bushels, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Monday. If the average of eight analyst estimates is realized, it would be up 3.6% from the 210.0 million bushels crushed in November and up 6.6% from the December 2023 crush of 204.3 million bushels.

Jan 30 - SovEkon lowered forecast of Russian wheat exports in 2024/25

SovEkon lowered its estimate of wheat exports in the 2024-25 season to 42.8 million tons from 43.7 million tons a month earlier. Last season, Russia shipped 52.4 million tons, a three-year average of 44.2 million tons. The estimate was revised due to the low rate of shipments.

The decline in wheat export estimates reflects the current slow pace of shipments and sales. January exports are estimated at 2.1m tons, 1.0m tons below average and the lowest since January 2022 when 2.0m tons were exported.

The current margins of Russian export operations remain close to zero or in the negative zone. If exporters’ margins do not rise significantly, we do not expect wheat exports to accelerate in the short term.

In mid-February, a 10.6m-ton quota will go into effect until the end of the season. We do not rule out quota increases, especially when export prices rise, but so far this is not our main scenario.

In January, the U.S. Department of Agriculture downgraded its forecast for Russian wheat exports by 1m tons to 46m tons, a still-extraordinarily high figure. We expect this to decline in the future, which may be accompanied by higher export estimates for the United States and Argentina.

Lower Russian export activity will support the global wheat market, as reduced supply from Russia will contribute to increasing global balance of payments tensions.

Jan 30 - India's coffee output dips, clouds export outlook despite record prices
India's coffee exports are expected to decline more than 10% in 2025 due to lower production and reduced carry-forward stocks from last season's crop, even as beans fetch record high prices, industry officials told Reuters on Wednesday. The South Asian country, a major tea producer, is also the world's seventh-largest coffee grower. The country mainly produces robusta beans used to make instant coffee, but also grows the more expensive arabica variety. 

Jan 30 - Brazil's slow corn planting may further squeeze tight world stocks - Braun
With global corn supplies set for decade lows later this year, Brazil’s corn harvest cannot afford a mishap. Brazilian corn stocks are particularly tight heading into 2024-25, and planting of the second corn crop, which accounts for almost 80% of the country’s corn production, is off to a slow start.

Jan 29 - Jordan buys estimated 50,000 T wheat in tender, traders say
Jordan's state grains buyer purchased about 50,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, traders said. It was believed to have been bought from Bulgarian trading house Buildcom at an estimated $265.25 a ton cost and freight included (c&f) for shipment in the first half of June, they said.

Jan 29 - EU 2024/25 soft wheat exports down 37% by Jan. 26
European Union soft wheat exports since the start of the 2024/25 season in July reached 12.18 million metric tons by Jan. 26, up compared to 11.74 million the previous week, but down 37% from a year earlier, European Commission data showed on Tuesday. However, the Commission said export data for Italy has been incomplete for the past seven weeks. For France, data has been incomplete since the beginning of 2024, while export data for Bulgaria and Ireland has been incomplete since the beginning of the 2023/24 marketing year.

Jan 29 - Export duty on sunflower oil in Russia continues to grow
In February 2025, the export duty on sunflower oil in Russia will amount to 17,786 rubles per ton, which is more than 1.7 thousand rubles more than the current month's figure (16,067 rubles per ton), reported the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation.
As it is specified, this duty is calculated at an indicative price of $1068.5 per tonnes (in January - $1,027.5 per tonnes).

At the same time, the export duty on Russian sunflower meal will be reduced next month - from 4771 rubles per ton in January to 3889 rubles per ton. This duty is set taking into account the indicative price for the product at $212.2 per tonnes (in January - $221 per tonnes).

Jan 28 - Thai 2025 rice exports seen falling over 20% this year, commerce ministry says

 Thailand's rice exports are seen falling about 24% to 7.5 million metric tons this year, the commerce ministry said. The lower forecast was due to the resumption of exports from India and improved volumes from other rice producers, Arada Fuangtong, head of the ministry's foreign trade department, told a media conference.  

Jan 28 - Bangladesh issues another new tender to buy 50,000 T of rice
Bangladesh's state grains buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, traders said on Monday. The deadline for submission of price offers is Feb. 6

Jan 28 - French wheat exports slump on poor crop, Algeria spat and Russian rivalry
France faces its worst wheat exports in decades as a rift with Algeria, a lull in Chinese demand and a dire harvest accelerate a loss of market share for the European Union's top grain grower to cheaper producers like Russia. Shrinking wheat exports are another setback for French farmers, who resumed protests early this year over falling income and foreign competition.  

Jan 28 - AgRural trims forecast for Brazil's 2024/25 soy crop
Brazil's 2024/25 soybean crop is expected to total 171 million metric tons, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, lowering its forecast by 500,000 tons due to lower yields in the states of Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. The "excellent crop" in Brazil's top-grain producing state Mato Grosso helped offset the reduced yields in other areas, AgRural said, though cautioning that grain quality there may drop if excessive rainfall is registered in February.

Jan 27 - China's suspension of five Brazilian soy exporters to last 2 months, says Brazilian official
China's suspension earlier this month of Brazilian soybean exports from five companies after cargoes did not meet plant health requirements will last two months, a top Brazilian agriculture official told Reuters on Friday. Brazil is the top soybean exporter to China, which is the world's top importer. Brazilian farmers and exporters compete with counterparts in the United States for the Chinese market. 

Jan 27 - Frigid weather likely damaged US winter wheat crop, meteorologist says
Frigid temperatures this week likely killed as much as 15% of the winter wheat crop in parts of the U.S. Plains and Midwest, the Commodity Weather Group said on Friday, in an ominous sign for U.S. wheat production. A blast of Arctic air covered much of the United States earlier this week, sending temperatures plunging across key wheat areas that have seen limited snowfall this winter.

Jan 24 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Sich-Feb @211$
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb @215.50$
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb @384$
· soybean without GMO ISCC DAP PN-ZH. Hungary, feb @442€
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jan @1'100$->1'110$

- Ukraine
· Exports from Ukraine of cereals, oilseeds and their products in the period from 1 to 22 January amounted to: corn - 1 750 thousand tons, wheat - 610.5 thousand tons, barley - 33.1 thousand tons, soybeans 157.3 - thousand tons, rape - 63.8 thousand tons, sunflower - 19.6 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 240.4 thousand tons, soybean oil - 28.1 thousand tons, cake (soybean and sunflower) - 241.8 thousand tons.

- Europe
· Imports of corn to the EU from July 1 to January 19 amounted to 11 million tons, which is 4% more than the same period last year. Ukraine's share in total imports declined to 56% (from 58.8% a year ago), as well as Brazil's share — to 14.7% (from 26.5%). Instead, the United States has significantly expanded its presence in the EU market, increasing its share to 16% (from 1% a year ago).
· Imports of soybeans for the corresponding period is 7.9 million tons, which is 15% more than last year. Ukraine's import time is 11.1% (8% a year ago). The absolute value increased to 0.88 million tons (0.55 million tons a year ago). The United States and Brazil accounted for 51% and 31.2% respectively (54.5% and 26.8% a year ago). The absolute value of these countries also increased - 4 million tons and 2.4 million tons respectively (3.7 million tons and 1.8 million tons a year ago).

- CORN
Prices in the domestic corn market continue to show positive dynamics, which is due to high activity both inside and outside the country. In the ports of Odessa, prices on average rose by 4-5$ to 214-215$ DAP. Buyers are actively contracted for March, which indicates a steady demand and the desire to fix prices in the face of possible volatility.

- WHEAT
In the domestic market, there is a further increase in prices for feed wheat, due to increased demand from processing enterprises and the overall cost of the feed group. As a result, the spread between food and forage wheat was reduced to $7-$8.

- SUNFLOWER
Sunflower prices continue to show growth due to the stable demand from processors. During the week, the cost of sunflower at 46% oil content increased by an average of 400-500 UAH. Although manufacturers have increased the supply, its volume is still insufficient to cover the needs of factories.

- SOYA
The European market is preparing for the supply of Brazilian soybean new crop, active supplies of which are expected in 2 half of February. Brazil plans to strengthen its position as the world's leading supplier, actively competing with the United States, which also exports significant amounts of soy to the EU. This poses a direct threat to the Ukrainian manufacturer, because it is becoming increasingly difficult to compete with cheap Brazilian and American soybeans on the European market.

Jan 24 - Argentina to slash grains export taxes in gift to hard-hit farmers
Agricultural powerhouse Argentina will temporarily lower taxes on its grains exports, the government said on Thursday, citing the improving health of the nation's economy and delivering on a campaign promise from libertarian President Javier Milei. The country's powerful agricultural groups have been pressuring for tax relief for the sector, which they argue is in a "critical" situation due to a drought and low crop prices. 

Jan 23 - Brazil says soy shipments to China from five firms halted due to contaminationChina, the world's biggest soybean buyer, has stopped receiving Brazilian soybean shipments from five firms after cargoes did not meet plant health requirements, according to a statement from the Brazilian government confirming what Reuters had learned from two sources on Wednesday. The phytosanitary-related suspension comes as Brazil has been bolstering its share of the world's biggest soybean market at the expense of the No. 2 exporter, the United States. 

Jan 23 - Brazil's beef companies breathing easy over prospect of new Trump tariffs
Brazilian beef companies do not expect to be hurt by potential new tariffs from President Donald Trump's administration because of low inventories of cattle in the U.S. and a sizable tariff that already exists on these exports. Roberto Perosa, head of the Brazilian beef exporters association ABIEC, said in an interview on Wednesday that Brazilian beef exports outside a 65,000-ton annual quota already are slapped with a 26.4% tariff when entering the U.S.

Jan 22 - Amid frosts in the US, wheat quotes rose by 2-4.9%, which will support prices in Ukraine (Grain Trade)

- Low temperatures and lack of snow cover in most of the plains of the USA are likely to have damaged winter wheat crops. Over the past 3 days, frosts in the USA have reached -20…-22 ° C, while there was no snow cover in the southwestern regions, which could have negatively affected crops. Although the frosts were short-lived, quotes responded to them by increasing by 3.6-4.9%, although overall prices increased by only 2-2.5% for the week.

- March wheat futures rose yesterday:
    by 3.7% to $205.3/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+2.3% per week),
    by 4.9% to $211.5/t – for durum winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+2.7%),
    by 3.6% to $222.1/t - for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+2.5%).
    by 2% to €231.25/t or $240.9/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext (0%).

- Wheat exports from the US for January 10-16 decreased by 12.5% compared to the previous week to 261.8 thousand tons, and in total for the season reached 13.279 million tons, which is 23.8% ahead of last year's pace. Wheat exports from the EU (as of January 19) amounted to 11.74 million tons, which is 36.5% less than last year.

- The new Egyptian agency Mostakbal Misr has purchased a significant amount of Russian wheat for delivery in January-February, but there is no public information about prices and volumes.

- Against the backdrop of decreasing export demand, wheat exports from the Russian Federation in January may amount to 2.4 million tons, which will be 1.7 times lower than exports in January 2024 (4.08 million tons) and will be the lowest figure since January 2022, when 1.9 million tons were exported.

- In Ukraine, against the backdrop of rising world prices for wheat and limited supply from producers, export demand prices for food wheat increased by 100-150 UAH/t to 10,400-10,600 UAH/t or $218-223/t, and for feed wheat by 100-150 UAH/t to 9,900-10,200 UAH/t or $209-211/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

Jan 22 - Egypt's Mostakbal Misr makes major Russian wheat purchase
Egypt's state grain buyer, Mostakbal Misr, has made a significant purchase of Russian wheat, set for shipment this month, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. The shipment, which sources said was procured through Russia's OZK Group, and will be loaded onto four vessels sailing under the Egyptian flag.  

Jan 22 - Bird flu outbreak in Georgia threatens US chicken exports, trade group say An outbreak of bird flu in poultry in the U.S. state of Georgia, the nation's biggest chicken producer, is set to trigger trade restrictions from major meat importers, an industry group said on Tuesday, warning of a move that could financially harm farmers and processors. A flock of 45,500 breeder chickens tested positive last week in Elbert County, Georgia, near the border with South Carolina, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Jan 22 - Forecast of Russian wheat production in 2025 remains unchanged, but weather risks are growing (SovEkon)

- SovEkon left its forecast of Russian wheat production in 2025 unchanged at 78.7 million tons compared to 82.4 million tons a year earlier. The abnormally warm weather does not yet cause any significant problems for crops, but the associated risks are gradually increasing.

- Against the background of abnormally warm weather, the snow cover accumulated at the end of last year in the Center has thinned, and in the South - has gone down. In the Volga region the snow cover remains relatively high.

Temperatures in the soil in the Center and in the South were also much higher than normal, and winter in some regions began to vegetate. Frosts during growing seasons or when snow cover is not available are a serious threat to winter crops and can cause their death.

- Another source of risk is ice crust at the Center. Snow melting has led to the formation of an ice crust, which in recent years has caused significant damage in winter.The plants went into winter in a much worse condition than normal. SovEkon estimates that, based on data from Roshydromet, the proportion of crops in poor condition is about 37 percent, the highest in at least 20 years.

- In the short term, the forecasts do not indicate a significant decrease in temperatures. However, given the current weather conditions and the extremely poor state of crops at the beginning of winter, any severe cold snap can lead to significant winter deaths.

Jan 21 - Algeria tenders to buy 240,000 T corn and 50,000 T soymeal
Algerian state agency ONAB has issued international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and about 50,000 tons of soymeal, European traders said on Monday. The deadline for submissions of price offers is Tuesday, Jan. 21. 

Jan 21 - Brazil's soybean harvest at slowest pace since 2021, says AgRural
Brazil's soybean harvest for the 2024/25 season had reached 1.7% of the planted area as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, the lowest level for this time of year since the 2020/21 cycle. Work in the fields has been affected mainly by excessive rains in top grain-producing state Mato Grosso, where the harvesting pace so far is the slowest ever in the data series starting 2010/11, AgRural said in a statement. 

Jan 21 - China's pig farming recovers, cattle and dairy firms still struggling, official says
China's imports of rapeseed from Canada, which had been surging since June, plunged in December after Beijing opened an anti-dumping investigation into the oilseed, Chinese customs data showed on Monday. Beijing in September launched a one-year investigation into rapeseed imports from Canada after Ottawa imposed tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, prompting importers fearing retaliatory anti-dumping duties to scale back purchases from Canada.

Jan 20 - US soybean market share in China falls in 2024, replaced by Latam
China's soybean imports from the United States dropped 5.7% in 2024 from the previous year and were replaced by Brazilian and Argentine shipments, as fears of a renewed Sino-U.S. trade war further hammered the U.S. market share to under a quarter. China imported a record 105.03 million metric tons of the oilseed in 2024 ahead of the inauguration of President Donald Trump, whose threats of blanket 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods sparked concerns over disruptions to agriculture trade. 

Jan 20 - India set to allow 1 million tons of sugar exports this year
India is set to allow exports of 1 million metric tons of sugar during the current season, government and industry sources said, to help mills export surplus stocks from the world's second biggest producer of the sweetener and help prop up local prices. The permission to let mills sell 1 million tons of sugar on the world market could put further downward pressure on global sugar prices.

Jan 17 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Sich-Feb @10'200₴
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Sich-Feb @209$-210$>211$
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, birch @213$

- Ukraine
· In Ukraine, it is expected that in 2025, the sowing areas under soybeans and rapeseed will be reduced, and crops under corn will increase.
· Exports from Ukraine of cereals, oilseeds and their products in the period from 1 to 15 January amounted to: corn - 1 071.3 thousand tons, wheat - 412.5 thousand tons, barley - 9.1 thousand tons, soybeans 113.2 - thousand tons, rape - 54.3 thousand tons, sunflower - 0.3 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 176.9 thousand tons, soybean oil - 20.4 thousand tons, oilcake (soybean and sunflower) - 202 thousand tons.

- World
· As of January 13, in Brazil, the first corn harvest was carried out by 2.3%, and soybeans were harvested by 0.3%.
· Rosario Grain Exchange lowered the forecast for corn production in Argentina by 24/25 MY from 51 million tons to 48 million tons. The main factor in the reduction of the forecast was dry weather, which negatively affected crops in the country. Soybean production is expected in the range of 53-53.5 million tons.

- USA
· USDA updated in January its forecasts for late crop yields in the United States: corn - 377.6 million tons (preliminary estimate — 384.6 million tons), soybeans - 118.8 million tons (preliminary estimate — 121.4 million tons).

- CORN
On the foreign market there is an intensification of buyers, demand on their part increases, which contributed to the increase in prices. The domestic market of Ukraine also demonstrates high demand, especially among exporters who want to fulfill previously concluded contracts. This led to an increase in corn prices both at the border of the country and in ports, where prices increased by an average of 3-4$ per week.

- WHEAT
The high demand of exporters and processing enterprises pushed wheat prices to growth. The increase on feed grain was especially noted, which was facilitated by the increase in prices for feed group as a whole. Feed wheat was traded in parity with corn, which emphasizes its competitiveness.

- SUNFLOWER
Sunflower prices in the Ukrainian market show growth, which is due to high demand from processing enterprises and a limited supply. Manufacturers continue to support sales, waiting for a further increase in prices. Prices for ordinary sunflower are kept at the level of 25-26 thousand UAH per ton for the oil content of 46%. At the same time, the premium for high-oil sunflower exceeded 5 thousand UAH.
In the port, the price of sunflower oil on the spot market was traded on average 1090-1100 $/t CPT port, and granulated sunflower meal - 212-220 $/t CPT port.

- SOYA
In the domestic market of soybeans there is a stabilization of prices in ports after a period of decline. At the same time, some processing plants have started to slightly raise the purchase prices due to the containment of the supply from manufacturers.

Jan 17 - IGC trims global corn crop forecast, US estimate cut
The International Grains Council on Thursday cut its forecast for 2024/25 global corn production, largely reflecting a downward revision for the United States. The inter-governmental body, in a monthly update, trimmed its global corn crop forecast by 6 million metric tons to 1.219 billion tons. 

Jan 17 - Brazil 2024/25 soy output seen as record ahead of crop tour, Agroconsult says
A Brazilian agribusiness consultancy on Thursday slightly raised its soybean output forecast for the 2024/25 crop year ahead of a countrywide expedition to survey fields. Agroconsult told a press conference local farmers will reap a record 172.4 million metric tons, compared with the 172.2 million tons forecast before.

Jan 16 - NOPA December US soy crush soars to record 206.604 million bushels
The monthly U.S. soybean crush jumped to the highest on record in December as several new processing plants have come online in recent months, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Wednesday. NOPA members, which account for at least 95% of U.S.-processed soybeans, crushed 206.604 million bushels of the oilseed last month, up 6.9% from the 193.185 million bushels crushed in November and up 5.8% from the December 2023 crush of 195.328 million bushels. 

Jan 16 - Sun to beat down on Argentine farmland before rains bring relief
Argentina's soy and corn crops will likely endure high temperatures for the next two days before heavy rains bring respite, according to a forecast by the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange released on Wednesday. The heatwave, which began earlier this week as the Southern Hemisphere summer intensifies, will ripple across the agricultural heartland with temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit).

Jan 16 - Export of wheat from the Black Sea slowed down (SovEkon)
Russian wheat exports in January amounted to 1.8-2.2m tons, compared to 3.6m tons a year earlier, according to SovEkon. Ukraine's wheat exports for the same period are estimated at 0.8m tons compared to 1.6m tons a year earlier. Wheat exports from the Black Sea have slowed on the back of lower supply.

According to SovEkon, in the first two weeks of January, Russia shipped 0.9 million tons of wheat, compared to 1.4 million tons a year earlier. During the same period, Ukraine shipped 0.3m tons of wheat, compared to 0.5m tons last year.

Exports have slowed amid declining supply. As of December 1, Russian wheat reserves among farmers were 18.7m tons, compared to 24.8m tons a year ago. SovEkon estimates total Russian wheat reserves at the end of the 2024/25 season at 10.0 mt (6.3 mt of market reserves + 3.7 mt in the state intervention fund) compared to 20.2 mt (16.0 mt + 4.2 mt) a year earlier.

SovEkon estimates Ukrainian final wheat reserves in the 2024/25 season at 0.8 million tons against 1.2 million tons in 2023/24 and 4.2 million tons in 2022/23. Data on current stocks have not been published since 2022.

At the same time, wheat prices in the ports are rising. By mid-January, prices of Ukrainian wheat with 11.5% protein in the ports of Odessa increased by $5 compared to the beginning of December to $215/t (CPT). Prices of Russian wheat in the ports of Novorossiysk since the beginning of December increased by $7 to $170/t (CPT).

Relatively low stocks will limit exports and support quotes later in the season. SovEkon estimates Russian exports at 43.7m tons compared to the US Agriculture Ministry's 46.0m tons. Given the volumes exported and the quotas, the current valuation of Russian exports to the US MoMA seems unrealistic to us. Ukrainian wheat exports are estimated at 16.1 million tons versus 16.0 million tons as estimated by the U.S. Agriculture Ministry.

Jan 15 - Brazil's Conab raises soybean output view to 166.32 million T
Brazilian crop agency Conab on Tuesday raised its forecast for domestic soy production in the 2024/2025 season to 166.32 million metric tons, from 166.21 tons previously, citing good weather and a minor adjustment in the growth of the oilseed's planted area. The new forecast for soy production in Brazil, the world's biggest producer and exporter, is 12.6% higher than the 2023/24 harvest and a record.

Jan 15 - NOPA December US soybean crush seen at record 205.498 million bushels
The U.S. soy crush likely swelled to a record high in December, boosted by ample crushing supplies and expanded processing capacity as several new plants have recently come online, according to analysts polled ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association report due on Wednesday. The report will include crush data from two facilities that opened last year in Cherryvale, Kansas, and Casselton, North Dakota, for the first time, NOPA told Reuters.

Jan 15 - EU 2024/25 soft wheat exports down 35% by Jan 12
Soft wheat exports from the European Union since the start of the 2024/25 season in July had reached 11.49 million metric tons by Jan. 12, down 35% from a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. EU barley exports totalled 2.26 million tons, down 32% year on year.

Jan 15 - Jordan buys estimated 60,000 T wheat in tender, traders say
Jordan's state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, traders said. It was believed to have been bought from trading house CHS at an estimated $267.60 a ton cost and freight (c&f) for shipment in the second half of March, they said.

Jan 14 - Pace of soy harvest in Brazil's biggest farm state is slowest in 7 years, AgRural says
Rains are disrupting the start of Brazil's 2024/25 soybean harvest in Mato Grosso, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, adding that the pace of work in the country's biggest farm state is the slowest in seven years. Farmers across Brazil have reaped 0.3% of the soy area, down from 2.3% a year ago, according to AgRural data. Mato Grosso's own harvest, however, is at the slowest pace for this time since the 2017/2018 season, AgRural's analyst Adriano Gomes said in an interview. 

Jan 14 - Argentine heat wave to damage crops before next rains, expert says
Argentina's soybean and corn crops will have to endure a heat wave over the next few days that will affect their yields, leading meteorologist German Heinzenknecht said on Monday, before rains bring some relief by the start of the weekend. Argentina, a major world supplier of soy, corn and wheat, has seen its main agricultural region face a prolonged dry spell since the onset of the Southern Hemisphere's summer last month.

Jan 13 - China soybean imports hit record in 2024 ahead of Trump inauguration
China imported the most soybeans on record in 2024 as buyers concerned about rising U.S.-China trade tensions rushed to secure U.S. supplies ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration. The world's biggest buyer of the oilseed imported 105.03 million metric tons of soybeans in 2024, a 6.5% increase from a year ago, according to customs data. 

Jan 13 - Patria trims Brazil 2024/2025 soy crop forecast on weather; Safras hikes estimate
Brazilian agribusiness consultancies shared contrasting views on Friday as they released fresh estimates for the country's 2024/25 soybean crop, with Safras & Mercado hiking its forecast while Patria AgroNegocios trimmed its projection. Both firms still forecast the world's largest soybean producer and exporter to harvest a record crop this year, but Patria noted that adverse weather in some key states should keep production below the level of 170 million metric tons.

Jan 10 - Argentina soy, corn need rains to rebound from hot, dry weather
Rains are needed to refresh Argentina's parched soy and corn crops, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said on Thursday, after weeks of hot and dry weather. Showers should come within the next week, the exchange's weather analyst told Reuters on Wednesday. 

Jan 10 - Indonesia suspects virgin palm oil mixed into used cooking oil exports
Indonesia said on Thursday its exports of used cooking oil and palm oil residue in recent years had exceeded production capacity, indicating crude palm oil (CPO) had been mixed in and prompting it to issue regulation curbing shipments this week. The world's biggest exporter of palm oil on Wednesday issued a ministerial decree clamping down on shipments of used cooking oil and palm oil residue, aimed to avert a potential shortfall of CPO for domestic industries. 

Jan 10 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS )Sold in a week· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jan @207.50$· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Feb @209$· DAP corn Mon. Italy, Jan-Feb @242€· wheat 12.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jan @218$· wheat 11.0pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jan @216$· wheat 10.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jan @206$· soybean without GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jan @19'950 UAH· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jan @1'055$- Ukraine : Exports from Ukraine of grain, oilseeds and their products in December according to the UAIS State Customs Service amounted to: corn - 2 497 thousand tons, wheat - 788.5 thousand tons, barley - 122.3 thousand tons, soybeans 343.9 - thousand tons, rape - 130  thousand tons, sunflower - 1.27 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 400.2 thousand tons, soybean oil - 43.4 thousand tons, cake - 342.1 thousand tons.- World : China is accelerating its efforts to ensure food security and plans to increase grain production by 50 million tons by 2030, which is 7% more compared to last year's record harvest of 706.5 million tons. The focus is on increasing the yield of corn, rice, wheat, soybeans and rapeseed.- Europe : Imports of corn to the EU between July 1 and January 6 is 10.1 million tons, which is 5% more than the same period last year. Ukraine's share in total imports is up to 55.1% ( 55.7% a year ago). The absolute value increased to 5.5 million tons (5.3 million tons a year ago). Brazil and the United States share 16% and 15.3% respectively (29.1% and 1.1% a year ago). The absolute value of these countries is 1.6 million tons and 1.5 million tons relative (2.8 million tons and 0.1 million tons a year ago).- CORNThe European corn market remains inactive after the holidays, which is typical for the beginning of the year.At the same time, the situation in the domestic market of Ukraine is opposite. The activity of market participants is high, the demand from buyers is growing, which maintains the dynamics of trading. There are also enough offers on the market. In the ports of Odessa, corn was traded on average at 206-209$ DAP.- WHEATAfter the New Year holidays, the wheat market in Ukraine intensified. The food grain demand is especially high. The spread between food and forage wheat has expanded to $8-$10, which emphasizes the premium quality of high protein grain.- SUNFLOWERThere was a gradual increase in prices from processors in the sunflower market, who sought to intensify purchases after the recent price correction. The supply of oilseeds remained restrained. As a result, sunflower prices increased by an average of 300-400 UAH per ton at 46% oil content.Oil prices in the spot market were traded on average at 1050-1060$ CPT port. Sunflower meal granulated traded at 205-215$ CPT port.- SOYAWithin a week, soybeans prices on the domestic market decreased due to the active offer from sellers and the restraint of buyers. Demand is weak, due to low activity in the foreign market and the expectation of further reduction in price. This creates an imbalance, resulting in conditions dictated by buyers.

Jan 09 - Dry spell puts southern Brazil soy farmers on alert as rains pound central regions
Dry weather is limiting soybean development in Brazil's southernmost state, putting farmers on alert there at the same time as excessive rain is set to disrupt early harvest work in central areas of the country, according to meteorologists. Expectations for the 2025 soy harvest in Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter, are sitting above 170 million metric tons. But output in Rio Grande do Sul, where rains have been scarce, is essential for achieving the target, which would be a record, according to some private consultancies. 

Jan 09 - Indonesia curbs exports of used cooking oil, palm residue to help domestic users
Indonesia has clamped down on exports of used cooking oil (UCO) and palm oil residue to ensure supply to domestic cooking oil and biodiesel industries, the government said in a new regulation on Wednesday. The step by the world's top producer and exporter of palm oil aims to help attain a new mandate starting from this year, of mixing 40% of palm oil-based fuel with diesel fuel, called B40, up from 35% previously, it said.

Jan 08 - China, lower grain prices bolster Brazil beef and chicken export prospects
Beef and chicken exports from Brazil, the world's largest supplier of both meat types, may break new records in 2025, two industry groups said on Tuesday after the release of annual trade data. Their optimism reflects the positive effects of lower grain prices and a weak Brazilian currency, which could continue to bolster meat exports and local companies including JBS and BRF. 

Jan 08 - Argentina's soy belt may be in for an alarmingly dry January - Braun
It seems that Argentine farmers simply cannot catch a break. Despite much-needed rainfall during planting, bone-dry conditions are set to grip the country's farmland through at least mid-January, greatly increasing odds that soybean yields will disappoint for a sixth consecutive season.

Jan 07 - Another US-China trade war may drop US soybean prices below $9/bushel, Rabobank says
U.S. soybean prices could slump below $9 a bushel, well below farmers' cost of production and the lowest since 2020, if President-elect Donald Trump's threatened tariffs spark another trade war with China, analysts with Rabobank said. The trade war could allow Brazil to further dominate China's oilseed imports and supply up to a record-large 80% of Beijing's total import needs, analysts said in an internal RaboResearch report made public Monday. 

Jan 07 - Syria unable to import wheat or fuel due to US sanctions, trade minister says
Syria is unable to make deals to import fuel, wheat or other key goods due to strict U.S. sanctions and despite many countries, including Gulf Arab states, wanting to do so, Syria's new trade minister said. In an interview with Reuters at his office in Damascus, Maher Khalil al-Hasan said Syria's new ruling administration had managed to scrape together enough wheat and fuel for a few months but the country faces a "catastrophe" if sanctions are not frozen or lifted soon.

Jan 06 - US biofuel producers ramped up in Oct as profitability improved, data shows
U.S. renewable diesel and biodiesel producers ramped up operations in October to multi-month highs, helped by stronger margins for the biofuels, according to data compiled by advisory group AEGIS Hedging. Renewable diesel producers utilized 77% of their total operable capacity in October, the highest since July 2024, the data showed. Biodiesel plant utilization rose to 89%, the highest since June 2023. 

Jan 06 - Hot Argentine summer is starting to damage crops, exchanges say
A hot, dry austral summer is beginning to cause damage to Argentina's 2024/25 soybean and corn crops, the country's two main grains exchanges said on Friday, after abundant spring rains had until recently provided excellent growing conditions. Until a few weeks ago, the Buenos Aires grains exchange (BdeC) had reported virtually no signs of crop damage thanks to wet spring weather.

Jan 04 - In 2024/25 MY, Egypt displaces Turkey in the rating of Russian wheat importers - experts

At the end of the first half of the 2024/25 MY (July-December) Egypt imported 5.3 mln tonnes of Russian wheat, which is 1.8 times more than in the same period a year earlier (2.9 mln tonnes). Such an assessment was released by experts of the analytical center of Rusagrotrans JSC, Interfax reports .
"With this indicator, Egypt leads in purchases of Russian wheat in the first half of the season. Bangladesh came in second place for the first time - 2.14 mln tonnes against 1.9 mln tonnes in July-December 2023. Turkey moved from first place last season to third place this season with a volume of 2.08 mln tonnes. Moreover, it reduced imports from Russia almost 1.5 times, which is due to the import restrictions imposed in the current season,” the analysts said.

Jan 03  - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market 

WHEAT
DAP-Port Danube (11.5%) - 210-213 $/t
DAP-Deep Sea Ports (11.5%) - 208-213 $/t

Chicago wheat quotes were adjusted after active growth during previous sessions. On Euronext wheat significantly grown in euros, but due to the strong exchange rate on Friday ʼ, in dollar terms it is not just a lack of growth, and even a slight drop in quotations.
· According to the State Customs Service, wheat export from Ukraine since the beginning of the season amounted to 9.87 million tons.
· Taiwan will hold a tender for the purchase of 114.65 thousand tons of food wheat from the United States.

Activity in the Ukrainian market remained limited, and nominal price levels were kept in the previous ranges.

CORN
DAP-Port Danube - 205-208 $/t
DAP-Deep Sea Ports - 203-206 $/t

Corn quotes showed minimal strengthening due to the lack of new fundamental factors.
· According to the State Customs Service, corn exports from Ukraine since the beginning of the season (Oct-Sep) reached 7.08 million tons.
· Weekly volumes of bioethanol production in the United States amounted to 1.111 million barrels per day, which is 3 thousand barrels per day higher than the figures of the previous week. Its reserves in the country for the week increased by 565 thousand barrels, to 23.639 million barrels.

Prices on the Ukrainian market did not show significant changes in the conditions of virtually no liquidity of trade.

Prices in the Ukrainian market remained in the previous limits, while the activity of the offer was expected to fade in the festive period.

EURUSD – 1,0282
USDUAH - 42.0385 (NBU)

Jan 03 - StoneX raises forecast for Brazil's 2024-2025 soybean crop
Brazil's 2024-2025 soybean crop is expected to reach 171.4 million metric tons, consultancy firm StoneX said on Thursday, increasing its forecast from the 166.2 million tons it had estimated in December. The upward revision was driven by higher expectations for the area planted with the oilseed in the South American country and increased yields, according to StoneX, which estimated production to be 14.4% higher than in the previous season. 

Jan 03 - Indonesian firms get 1-1/2 months to implement new B40 biodiesel mix
Indonesian companies will get a 1-1/2 month transition period to meet the new B40 biodiesel requirement, Deputy Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Yuliot Tanjung told reporters. Indonesia had planned to launch the mandatory mix of 40% palm oil fuel in biodiesel on Jan. 1, but industry players said they are still waiting for the technical regulations.

Dec 30  - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market ( [email protected])

WHEAT :
Wheat market activity is expectedly sluggish. Milling wheat is getting more keen attention from the exporters, but farmers keep the barns shut. Activity on selling side is expected to
come back mid-Jan. Prices in ports range $204-208 for feed wheat, $208-213 for 11.5%pro and $212-216 for 12.5%pro.
FOBbing rate for handies is $13-14/mt. Buyers are willing to consider nearby offers and ready to best their price by $1-2/mt. Most of the friendly sentiment is rooted in lower russian exports dynamics and worse crop-25 outlook (local agencies decreased it by 3Mmt to 78.7Mmt).
Port line-up is steady at 283Kmt (Algeria, Italy, Indonesia followed by Spain), destinations hint some more milling wheat is being exported.
Ukraine weather: average daily temperatures remain 4-6C above normal, negative temps are in North/West of the Country (0-2C), the rest is in 0+2C range.
Precipitation is close to normal in the central regions and within 50-75% of the norm in South/West.

CORN :
Corn market is steady buying side and inactive selling side. Buyers post up to $204 DAP POC (~$217 or CH95 FOB POC equivalent). Sellers are in holidays mood, which is expected to stretch at least till next week.
Port line-up has dropped notably to below 400Kmt, with exporters executing inland stocks while sellers are on holidays. Destinations Spain, Turkey, Egypt, Italy.

BARLEY :
Barley market is uneventful with just 3Kmt coaster loading to Cyprus. Prices DAP POC hover around mid $190-ies. No selling activity is noted. Nearly 2Mmt out of 2.6Mmt export potential has already been executed. We estimate around 2/3 of the remaining ~600-650Kmt is still in the hands of farmers and there is no pressure or incentive for farmer to liquidate.

SUNFLOWERSEEDS :
Sunseeds market was inactive, prices ranged $530-540 (48% oil, net of VAT); under influence of weaker UAH ($1=42).
Crush plants see no sense in bidding up as farmers are inclined to hold through mid-Jan.
Granulated meal was bid $205-207DAP POC,
CSFO buyers indicated $1045-1055 v.s. sellers at $1100+. No liquidity noted for products.

SOJA :
Soybeans market was inert and nominal, prices for GMO ranged $370-380 DAP POC. Non-GMO beans keep trending lower, current buying ideas range $420-425 for spot deliveries and $410-415 for Jan.
35Kmt of soybeans is in the port line-up, 1 handy to Belgium and 1 coaster to Turkey.

RAPESEEDS :
Rapeseed market will be better to read next week onwards, so far we hear of nominal price ideas for 42% oil at $505 for Jan and $455 for Jul-Aug. Most likely these prices can be substantially improved. No reason to heat them up though, when sellers are not there.

Dec 20  - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
Crop 2024
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Dec-Sich @206$
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jan 208$
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jan @377.5$
Crop 2025
· SOYA NE-GMO ISCC DAP PN-SH. Italy, Oct-Dec ...
· soya NE-GMO ISCC FCA border of Ukraine, Oct-Dec ...

- Ukraine
· Exports from Ukraine of cereals, oilseeds and their products in the period from 1 to 18 December amounted to: corn - 1 282 thousand tons, wheat - 381.2 thousand tons, barley - 82.5 thousand tons, soybeans 215.6 - thousand tons, rape - 100.6 thousand tons, sunflower - 0.73 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 228.3 thousand tons, soybean oil - 17.1 thousand tons, oilcake (soybean and sunflower) - 274 thousand tons.

- Europe
· According to the December MARS report, grain fields in Europe are mostly in good condition after a favorable period that helped recover from the wet autumn. In Western Europe, the sowing was completed, and in the Central and Northern regions, moderate cold was not harmed by crops, ensuring a sufficient supply of moisture. Crops near the Black Sea remain vulnerable to winter conditions.
· In 2025, French farmers plan to sow 4.51 million hectares of winter wheat, which is 8.7% more compared to the area collected this year, but 0.8% less than the average for 5 years.

- CORN
The market enters the stage of rest before the holidays. Over the past week, prices in Ukrainian ports have increased by another 3$. In the EU market, demand remains stable, although customer activity decreases due to New Year holidays and holiday period.
It is worth noting that the pace of corn exports from Ukraine remains restrained, which raises questions about the sufficiency of proposals from producers. At the same time, this creates conditions for accumulating sentences that are likely to be implemented in later periods.

- WHEAT
World demand for wheat is gradually recovering, which leads to higher prices.
Wheat prices in Ukrainian ports show a slight increase, although trade activity remains low.
At present, there is a high activity of processing plants that actively buy food wheat.

- SUNFLOWER
Falling export prices for sunflower and sunflower oil reduces the marginality of processing enterprises, which complicates the work of Ukrainian plants, which are oriented both on domestic and foreign demand. This forces them to reduce the purchase prices of raw materials. Manufacturers, in turn, restrain the sales of sunflower, especially with a high oil content.
Sunflower oil in the spot market for a week decreased to 1050-1070$ CPT port.

- SOYA
The Ukrainian soybean market demonstrates different trends. Soybeans prices in ports are declining due to low activity of exporters and high competition in the world market. At the same time, processing enterprises still keep prices because of good demand and limited supply in the market.

- RAPESEED
Prices for rapeseed on the MATIF exchange have undergone significant fluctuations. After a sharp rise last week, this week they are down by more than 20€ on near futures. Despite price fluctuations, buyers continue to contract Australian and Canadian rapeseed, which indicates a stable demand for oilseed crops.

Dec 20 - China's state importer books US soy purchases as tariff threat looms
China's Sinograin has bought nearly 500,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans this week for shipment in March and April, paying more for U.S. supplies for state reserves rather than buying cheaper Brazilian beans, two U.S. traders familiar with the deals said. China is the world's top soy buyer and a crucial market for both U.S. and Brazilian farmers, who supply the bulk of China's imports. 

Dec 19 - French wheat export forecast cut to lowest in decades
Farm office France AgriMer on Wednesday slashed its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union this season to the lowest since the start of the century, reflecting a dearth of demand from North Africa and China. A poor harvest, with the lowest volumes since the 1980s and mixed grain quality, had been widely expected to squeeze French wheat exports in 2024/25, but they have been further stifled by stiff competition from Russia and a lull in Chinese imports.

Dec 19 - Ukraine exported 6.0 mln metric tons of grain via Romania's Constanta in Jan-Nov24
Ukraine's grain exports through the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta in the first 11 months were down by 54% from a year earlier to 6.0 million metric tons, the port authority said. The drop reflects Kyiv's reliance on its own ports despite Russian attacks on shipping and infrastructure though Constanta remains Ukraine's main alternative export route for grains since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

 

Dec 19 - China to promote modernization of farms in pledge to stabilise grain output
China will accelerate the pace of agricultural and rural modernization and stabilise grain planting area in its quest to ensure stable and high production of grains, state media reported on Wednesday, citing an annual rural policy meeting. The world's biggest grains producer announced record grains production of 706.5 million metric tons this year, including 294.92 million tons of corn.  

Dec 19 - US suffers first severe human case of bird flu; California declares emergency
The U.S. reported its first severe human case of bird flu on Wednesday in a Louisiana resident who is hospitalized in critical condition after suspected contact with an infected backyard flock. California, the most populous state, declared an emergency over the H5N1 virus as it spread more widely in dairy herds and after it has infected dozens of farm workers this year.

Dec 18 - Malaysia hopes palm oil industry can be compliant with EU law when grace period ends
Malaysia hopes its palm oil industry will be fully compliant with the European Union's anti-deforestation policy before a newly agreed deadline, its commodities minister said. The European Parliament approved on Tuesday a one-year delay on implementation of its landmark deforestation law, which bans the importation of palm oil, soy and other goods linked to the destruction of forests from Dec. 30 next year. 

Dec 18 - French wheat area to rebound but stay below average, farm ministry says
France's main wheat crop will regain area for next year's harvest after a dry end to autumn averted a repeat of rain-hit sowing a year ago, though planting remained below the average of recent years, the farm ministry said. Farmers in France, the European Union's biggest grain producer, are expected to sow 4.51 million hectares of winter soft wheat for next year, up 8.7% compared with the area harvested this year but 0.8% lower than the average of the past five years, the ministry said in its first estimates for 2025.

Dec 18 - South Korea’s FLC buys about 66,000 T corn, traders say
South Korea's Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased about 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, European traders said. The corn was purchased at an estimated $235.99 a ton cost and freight included plus a $1.50 a ton surcharge for additional port unloading, they said.

Dec 17 - EU crops in fair shape but Black Sea rim lacks winter strength, monitor saysCereal fields in Europe are generally in good condition after a dry, mild spell helped them recover from a soggy start to autumn, though grain belts around the Black Sea are lacking hardiness for winter, the EU's crop monitoring service said on Monday. Echoing comments from its November report, the MARS service said in its December update that drier weather allowed farmers to wrap up sowing in western Europe despite delays. 

Dec 17 - NOPA November US soybean crush dips to 193.185 million bushels
The U.S. soybean crush declined in November from an all-time high a month earlier and fell short of most trade estimates, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday. NOPA members, which account for about 95% of U.S.-processed soybeans, crushed 193.185 million bushels of the oilseed last month, below the average estimate of 196.713 million bushels in a Reuters poll of 10 analysts. 

Dec 16 - Limited sunflower supply in Ukraine restrained significant sunflower price adjustments (APK-Inform)During last week, prices in the Ukrainian sunflower market moved in different directions, but no significant price adjustments have been observed so far.Thus, prices for sunflower oil continued to decline, while the supply of sunflower remained extremely limited, which did not allow processors to significantly reduce purchase prices.In a number of cases companies reduced demand prices by 200 UAH/t on average, but in fact continued to purchase raw materials at prices in the previously formed range - from 25000 UAH/t CPT and higher. Also, many processors were ready to pay extra for large volumes of oilseed and quick delivery.Note that the rate of sunflower oil exports since the beginning of December decreased by 19% against November, amounting to 165 thousand tonnes (as of 12.12).

Dec 16 - Ukraine exported just over 1 mln tonnes of grain in the first half of December (APK-Inform)
According to operational data of the State Customs Service, as of December 16, Ukraine has exported 19.51 mln tonnes of grain and leguminous crops since the beginning of the 2024/25 MY, of which 1.135 tonnes have been shipped since the beginning of the current month, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine reported.
At the same time, as of December 20 last year, total shipments amounted to 16.013 mln tonnes, including 2.917 mln tonnes in December.

In particular, since the beginning of the current season exported:
- wheat - 9.207 mln tonnes (in MY 2023/24 - 6.723 mln tonnes);
- barley - 1.899 mln tonnes (946 thousand tons);
- rye - 10.8 thousand tons (1 thousand tons);
- corn - 8.084 mln tonnes (8.206 mln tonnes).

Dec 16 - Soybeans in Ukraine cheapen for the sixth week in a row (APK-Inform)
According to the monitoring data of the APK-Inform news agency, soybeans in Ukraine have become cheaper for the sixth week in a row. This situation is due to a sufficient amount of beans on the market and formed stocks of raw materials at processors since the beginning of the season.

As of the beginning of the day on December 16, the demand prices for soybeans (GM) are voiced, as a rule, in the range of 16700-17000 UAH/t CPT, which is lower than the prices voiced in early November by 1200-1400 UAH/t.

Dec 16 - India's rice stocks surge to record high, boosting export prospects
Rice inventories in India surged to a record high at the start of December, reaching more than five times the government's target and potentially boosting overseas shipments from the world's biggest exporter of the staple food. Rice reserves, including unmilled paddy, in state granaries totalled 44.1 million metric tons on Dec. 1 against a government target of 7.6 million tons, data compiled by the Food Corporation of India showed. 

Dec 16 - Funds fortify bullish corn bets after USDA's supply slashing: Braun
Speculators last month turned optimistic toward Chicago-traded corn for the first time in more than a year as U.S. exporters were posting jaw-dropping sales volumes. In fact, U.S. corn demand has been so good that it forced the U.S. Department of Agriculture last Tuesday to slash its U.S. corn carryout estimate by 10%.

Dec 13 - Russia bans sunflower, corn seeds imports from four countries
The Russian agricultural watchdog has banned imports of sunflower and corn seeds from companies in Chile, France, Hungary, and Turkey, it said on Thursday, in line with Moscow's policy to reduce dependency on seed imports. Over the last decade, Russia has become a major agriculture exporter and is striving to become a global agricultural superpower.  

Dec 13 - Export demand may push Ukraine wheat prices up in Dec-Jan, producers say
The volume of wheat export contracts from Ukraine in December totals 1.1 million metric tons and high demand from exporters may increase prices by $20 to $25 per ton in December-January, major Ukrainian agricultural producers' union UAC said. The union said late on Wednesday traders had exported 136,000 tons of Ukrainian-origin wheat in the first nine days of December.

Dec 13 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jan @205$
· rape NE-GMO ISCC DAP mon. Germany, Jan-Feb @533€
· sunflower oil FCA plant, Ukraine, Feb-birch @1'065€

- Ukraine
· USDA updated in December its expectations for the harvest in Ukraine: corn - 26.5 million tons (preliminary assessment - 26.2 million tons), barley - 5.9 million tons (preliminary assessment - 5.4 million tons), rape - 3.75 million tons (preliminary assessment - 3.6 million tons), sunflower - 12.9 million tons (preliminary assessment - 12.5 million tons). According to wheat and soybeans estimates have not changed - 22.9 million tons and 6.6 million tons respectively.
· Exports from Ukraine of grain, oilseeds and their processing products in the period from 1 to 11 December amounted to: corn - 733.2 thousand tons, wheat - 168.3 thousand tons, soybeans 133.5 - thousand tons, rape - 94.1 thousand tons, sunflower - 0.47 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 156.9 thousand tons, soybean oil - 9.6 thousand tons, oilcake (soybean and sunflower) - 174.2 thousand tons.

- Europe
· December estimates of USDA for the EU crop: wheat - 121.3 million tons (preliminary assessment - 122.6 million tons), corn - 58 million tons (preliminary assessment - 58.8 million tons), barley - 50.4 million tons (preliminary assessment - 50.75 million tons), soybeans - 2.85 million tons (preliminary assessment - 2.9 million tons), rape - 17.24 million tons (preliminary assessment - 17.35 million tons), sunflower - 8.78 million tons (preliminary assessment - 9.43 million tons).

- CORN
European buyers demonstrate good activity in the market. Demand on their part increases, which in turn pushes prices to growth.
The Ukrainian corn market demonstrated an increased price dynamics during the week. Buyers are actively encouraging sellers to sign contracts for January-February, given the expected increase in the cost of logistics in February. This encourages manufacturers to intensify sales. On average, prices in the ports of Odessa rose by 4$ to 204-205$.

- WHEAT
In Ukraine, food wheat prices have not undergone significant changes in comparison with the previous week. However, feed wheat showed a slight increase, which was due to higher prices in the neighboring market of feed corn and barley.

- SUNFLOWER
In the domestic market, sunflower prices have not changed for a week. At the same time, demand from individual processing plants increased after the recent price correction. The supply from manufacturers remains limited, which forces buyers to stimulate sellers with premiums for volume and fast delivery.
Oil prices in the spot market decreased by 15-20$ and traded on average at 1095$ CPT port.

- SOYA
The low activity of European buyers is further explained by a sufficient level of coverage.
In the Ukrainian market prices in ports are reduced. At the same time, some processing plants have intensified and are ready to give prizes for good volumes.

- RAPE
The high demand in the EU encourages buyers to actively purchase, in particular from Canada and the new harvest from Australia. A significant supply from these countries, which is expected by the end of February, creates a competitive pressure on the Ukrainian market, affecting prices and export volumes.

Dec 13 - GIWA raises Western Australian wheat harvest estimate by 495,000 tons
The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) raised its estimates for wheat, barley and canola production in the state, saying yields from the ongoing harvest had continued to exceed expectations. Western Australia is one of the biggest cropping areas in Australia, a major exporter of agricultural goods.  

Dec 13 - Conab, Abiove raise forecasts for Brazil's 2025 soybean crop
Brazilian national crop agency Conab and oilseed crushing group Abiove on Thursday increased their estimates for the country's 2025 soybean crop, which could reach record levels following improved weather conditions. Farmers in the South American nation, the world's largest soy producer and exporter, are set to see yields recover in the new season after grappling with adverse weather in the previous cycle, which affected overall production of the oilseed.

Dec 12 - Argentina exchange hikes wheat forecast after fresh November rains
Argentina's Rosario grains exchange on Wednesday hiked up its forecast for the nation's 2024/25 wheat harvest thanks to recent rainfalls and fresh weather over the austral spring month of November. The exchange now expects a 19.3 million metric ton wheat harvest compared to a prior forecast of 18.8 million tons.

Dec 11 - Russian wheat Egypt bought in September finally on way
A first shipment of 66,000 metric tons of Russian wheat out of the 430,000 that Egypt bought in September left the port of Novorossiisk on Tuesday after delays, an Egyptian source with direct knowledge of the matter said, confirming LSEG shipping data reported earlier by Reuters. Egypt's Ministry of Supply said in September that its General Authority for Supply Commodities had contracted 430,000 tons of Russian wheat for October shipment.  

Dec 11 - EU 2024/25 soft wheat exports down 29% by Dec 8
Soft wheat exports from the European Union since the start of the 2024/25 season in July had reached 10.24 million metric tons by Dec. 8, down 29% from 14.41 million tons a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. EU barley exports totalled 2.03 million tons, down 43% from 3.11 million tons in the corresponding period of 2023/24.

Dec 11 - US corn stocks expected to hit two-year low as exports rise, USDA says
U.S. farmers and grain handlers will have less corn than expected in storage before next year's harvest as exports rise to the second-highest level on record, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday. Low prices and ample supplies have boosted demand for U.S. corn after farmers harvested massive crops for the past two years.  

Dec 10 - China soybean imports slip 9% in Nov but on course for record annual highChina brought in 7.15 million metric tons of soybeans in November, less than expected due to a decrease in Brazillian arrivals, but the world's biggest oilseed buyer remains set for record annual imports. November arrivals dropped 9% from 7.92 million tons in the same month a year earlier, according to Reuters calculations of customs data released. 

Dec 10 - Brazil breaks annual coffee export record after November bump
Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, broke its annual record of green coffee exports in November, even with December's exports still underway, local industry group Cecafe said on Monday. In the year through November, Brazil exported 42.7 million 60-kilogram bags of green coffee, already surpassing the previous annual record from 2020, when the country shipped 40.6 million bags during the full year, Cecafe data showed.  

Dec 09 - First shipment of Egypt's delayed Russian wheat purchase begins loading, sources sayThe first shipment from Egypt’s purchase of 430,000 metric tons of Russian wheat began loading on Saturday, following a nearly three-month delay, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The shipment, consisting of 63,000 tons, has so far loaded 17,650 tons from the Novorossiysk Grain Processing Plant in Russia that is part of the OZK Group, which also controls the terminal.  

Dec 09 - Funds' CBOT corn optimism a bright spot in a largely bearish market: Braun
Speculators' commanding net shorts in U.S. wheat, soybeans and soybean meal might make the overall market bearishness feel heavier than normal. But U.S. grain and oilseed sentiment is actually right in line with typical levels for this time of year, propped up by funds’ modestly optimistic views in corn.

Dec 06 - Russian winter crops are in poor state, top government official says
Russian winter crops are in poor condition and will need to be partially replaced by spring crops, while the outlook for next year's harvest remains difficult to predict, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev said on Thursday. Analysts from the ProZerno Centre, citing data from the state weather forecasting agency on Dec. 4, said over 37% of winter crops are in poor condition or have not sprouted, compared with only 4% last year, marking the worst level ever recorded.

Dec 06 - EU chief lands in South America to seal trade deal as France seethes
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen landed in Uruguay on Thursday seeking to finalize a long-delayed trade deal between the European Union and South America's Mercosur bloc, even as France slammed the agreement as "unacceptable". Von der Leyen arrived hours after President Emmanuel Macron's government collapsed following a no-confidence vote in parliament over efforts to rein in France's budget deficit, leaving Macron scrambling to name a new prime minister.

Dec 06 - Dire Russian crop health and Ukraine export risks threaten Black Sea wheat: Braun
New contract lows in Chicago wheat futures this week are hardly indicative of global supply concerns, but traders might want to eye what's happening in the Black Sea region more closely. Winter grains in top wheat exporter Russia are in the worst-ever condition, and Ukraine’s current shipping capabilities could soon come under threat.

Dec 06 - Vietnam rice exports in Nov up 16.3% y/y, statistics office says
Vietnam exported 698,000 metric tons of rice in November, up 16.3% from the same month a year earlier, government data released showed. For the January-November period, the country exported 8.45 million tons of rice, up 10.6% from the previous year.

Dec 05 - Analysts say data shows Russian winter crops in worst state ever
The share of winter crops in Russia for the 2025 harvest in poor condition or have not sprouted is at an unprecedented level of over 37%, analysts from ProZerno centre said on Wednesday, citing state weather forecasting agency data. The agency provides its winter crops data to the Agriculture Ministry but does not disclose it to the public.  

Dec 05 - Soy traders push to weaken ban on buying from deforested Amazon
Multinational grains traders operating in Brazil are seeking to weaken an agreement that forbids buying soybeans from farms on deforested land in the Amazon rainforest, environmental advocates involved in the discussions said on Wednesday. Soy traders including ADM, Cargill, Cofco and Bunge signed up for the "Amazon soy moratorium" in the mid-2000s, pledging to stop buying soy from farms in the Brazilian rainforest that were deforested from 2008 onward.

Dec 04 - Sunflower market has gone down (SovEkon)
Sunflower prices in Russian ports last week fell by 550 rubles to 40,625 rubles per ton, analysts of the Center "SovEkon" calculated. This is the first decline since the end of August. The sunflower market turned around amid lower export prices for oil and reduced demand from refiners.

Export quotations for sunflower oil have started to fall. Last week they were $5 to $1,110/t FOB. We believe that the price of sunflower oil has passed its peak and will continue to decline as prices of other vegetable oils weaken. During the week ended November 28, export quotations of soybean oil declined by $13 to $1,145/t FOB.

Probably, the decrease of sunflower crop in the Black Sea is already sufficiently reflected in prices. Against this backdrop, demand from refiners has recently begun to decline.

The weakening of the ruble partly curbed the decline in sunflower prices. Last Friday, Russia's central bank set USDRUB at 109.6, up 9% from the week before.

The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia proposed to change the calculation of export duty for sunflower oil from February, which will be based on the price index of the current month. It is currently based on the previous month's price index. The change could lead to lower export duties, as sunflower oil prices are expected to weaken.

Sunflower prices will continue to decline, supported by a weak ruble and relatively high oil prices. With a relatively large drop in prices, we expect demand to pick up from refiners concerned about capacity utilization in the coming months.

Dec 04 - Rain hits Australia's wheat harvest causing quality downgrades
Heavy rainfall has hit Australia's bumper wheat harvest causing widespread quality downgrades, traders and analysts said, increasing the prospect of tightening global supply. Farmers in Australia, the world's fourth-biggest wheat exporter, are wrapping up an above-average harvest and providing much-needed supplies to the world market but rain over the last two weeks has doused crops and more wet weather is forecast. 

Dec 04 - Mexico expects resolution on GM corn dispute by Dec. 14
Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said on Tuesday he expected a resolution on a dispute under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade pact regarding Mexican restrictions on imports of genetically-modified corn by Dec. 14. Under the administration of former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Mexico's government sought to limit imports of GM corn over concerns it could harm health and put the country's native varieties at risk.

Dec 03 - Australia raises wheat production forecast by 60,000 tons
Australia raised its national 2024/25 wheat harvest estimate by 60,000 metric tons to 31.9 million tons, with good yields in the east and west forecast to compensate for losses in the south to deliver above-average production. A bigger wheat harvest from Australia, which is one of the world's biggest exporters, will increase global supply at a time when prices are near four-year lows.  

Dec 03 - Rains bring relief to Argentina's agricultural heartland
Recent rains across Argentina's agricultural heartland have brought much-needed moisture to the soil as the planting of corn and soybeans are underway, Rosario's grains exchange reported on Monday. Argentina, a key grains exporter worldwide, went through a mostly dry winter and is now facing almost weekly rain fronts as the Southern Hemisphere summer approaches.

Dec 02 - The customs subcommission approved an export quota of 11 million tons of Russian wheat from February 15 to June 30, 2025 (FINMARKET.RU)

- "At the meeting of the subcommission, the tariff quota for export of grain crops from 15 February to 30 June 2025 was approved in the amount of 11 million tons. At the same time, only wheat and meslin were included in the quota. The quota for the export of barley, rye and corn will be 0 tons," the Economic Development Ministry said.
According to the report, within the quota there will be a floating rate of export duty (damper), the out-of-quota rate - 50%, but not less than 100 euros per ton. A draft Government Regulation will be prepared shortly.

Dec 02 - Strategie Grains sees rebound in EU rapeseed and sunflower crops next year
European Union production of rapeseed and sunflower seed should rebound sharply in 2025 after adverse weather cut this year's crops, consultancy Strategie Grains said on Friday. In its first projections for next year's oilseed output, the firm forecast the EU rapeseed harvest at 18.7 million metric tons, up 12% from a four-year low of 16.7 million in 2024.

Dec 02 - French soft wheat sowing ahead of average pace after drier November
Soft wheat sowing in France has moved ahead of the average pace of recent years, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed on Friday, as drier weather this month helped farmers catch up on rain delays earlier in the autumn. Farmers had sown 93% of the expected soft wheat area by Nov. 25, up from 81% a year ago and also ahead of a 91% average for the same week in the past five years, FranceAgriMer said in cereal crop report.

Dec 02 - Russia cuts wheat exports among measures to curb inflation
Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, cut its 2025 export quota by two-thirds, hiked wheat-export duties and abandoned import quotas for some staple foods on Friday as the government moved to curb inflation. The Eurasian Economic Union Council said Russia's export quotas for the second part of the export season from Feb. 15 to June 30, 2025, will be 11 million metric tons, down from 29 million tons in the same period this year.

Dec 02 - Govt register shows leap in foreign-owned cropping land (GrainCentral)

- CHINESE interests remained the largest foreign owners of agricultural land in Australia last year, but their landholdings have decreased by close to one million hectares compared with two years earlier.

Findings from the Federal Government’s latest annual Foreign Ownership of Agricultural Land Register released last month show the total area of ag land with a level of offshore ownership has fallen just 0.3 percent from 47.7 million hectares (Mha) to 47.56Mha last year.

Established by the Australian Taxation Office to provide greater transparency about the level of overseas investment in Australia’s farmland, the eighth annual report released this week covers the year to June 2023.

The ATO’s definition of foreign ownership includes entities with a level of foreign ownership of at least 20pc, so the register captures details of assets even when the majority of shareholding is in Australian hands.

Of the total 47.56Mha of agricultural land with some level of foreign ownership by offshore interests, 36.24Mha, or 76.2pc, is apportioned to the foreign share of assets held with some Australian investment, with the remaining 11.32Mha, or 23.8pc, held by Australian equity partners.

- China stays at No. 1

For the fifth consecutive year, China remained the largest foreign owner of Australian agricultural land, by area, despite Chinese owners divesting close to 1Mha over the past two years.
While the top 10 countries by investment origin did not change in 2023 when compared to 2022, the rankings of Switzerland and Germany changed places.
- China, The Netherlands and United States overall agricultural land interest decreased, Bahamas remained unchanged, and all other countries in the top 10 increased in land area.
China holds a 2.1pc share or 7.596Mha, comprising 759,000ha freehold and 6.836Mha leasehold, after divesting 190,000ha last year.
- The United Kingdom closely followed with 2pc or 7.325Mha, comprising 824,000ha freehold and 6.5Mha leasehold, after purchasing an additional 30,000ha during the year.
The overwhelming majority of country owned by both Chinese and UK interests in Australia is leasehold.
- Canada now owns more than 3Mha, or 0.8pc, with more than 2Mha each held by The Netherlands and the United States, each on 0.6pc, and The Bahamas, Switzerland, and Germany.
- When it comes to the nation with the largest share of Australian agricultural land on a freehold basis, The Netherlands tops the list with 1.38Mha, followed by the US with 1.14Mha.

Nov 29 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS )

- Sold in a week
· DAP corn Mon. Italy, Dec @233€
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Letter-Dec @198$
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter-Dec @1112$

- Ukraine
· On the weekend, Polish farmers blocked the border with Ukraine in the framework of the trade protest of the agreement between the EU and the MERCOSUR countries. The action lasted 2 days. Farmers plan to hold a new lockdown on December 10, this time with the possibility of blocking the entire eastern border of Poland.
· Exports from Ukraine of cereals, oilseeds and their products during the period from 1 to 27 November amounted to: corn - 2 243 thousand tons, wheat - 1 038.3 thousand tons, barley - 149.4 thousand tons, soybean 429.9 - thousand tons, rape - 315.4  thousand tons, sunflower - 1.1 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 400.6 thousand tons, soybean oil - 36.1 thousand tons, oilcake (soybean and sunflower) - 343.1 thousand tons.
· As of 28.11, late crops have been harvested in Ukraine: sunflower - 10.22 million tons (from 97% of the area), soybeans - 6.01 million tons (from 99% of the area), corn - 24.16 million tons (from 96% of the area).
· As of 25.11, winter crops were sown: wheat - 4,383.5 thousand hectares (98%), barley - 611.1 thousand hectares (96%), rape - 1,081.4 thousand hectares (96%).

- World
· Turkey abolished 8% customs tax on imports of sunflower within the established quota, and the tariff for imports outside the quota is reduced to 12% from 27%. The customs tax will be effective from January 1 to April 30, 2025. The duty on sunflower oil has not changed and remains at the level of 20%.

- CORN
The external market demonstrates discrepancies in price trends. The saturation of the European market is forecast until February, which leads to lower price dynamics and lower prices for late periods of supply. The premiums for the later deliveries are almost absent, which indicates the uncertainty of the participants regarding further price changes.
In Ukraine, both in seaports and on the border, continues the premium purchase with prompt delivery, caused by the closure of long-standing expensive sales by traders. In the future, a significant decrease in the activity of the international market and buyers is expected, which can adversely affect prices.

- WHEAT
The activity of buyers in the foreign market remains low.
The Ukrainian market is almost not active. The demand from buyers is shown only for high-protein wheat, while the demand for feed grain is low.

- SUNFLOWER
Sunflower oil fell by 50$/t and traded this week for 1110-1115$/t (delivery December). Saturation of the foreign market with oil and processed products continues. Shrot on the Western border fell by 15-20$/t and traded for 210-215$ DAP Poland. In the seaports of Ukraine the meal was traded at 190$ (non-granulated) and 200$ (granulated).
Ukrainian processing plants have accumulated raw materials for 1-1.5 months. The decline in world prices for oil and meal caused the price of sunflower to fall to 24,000-25,500 UAH/t (delivery to the plant), for basic oil content 46% (dry substance). The number of sunflower offers increased against the background of lower prices.

- SOYA
The EU market is saturated with soy. Demand from the processing plants is low, as they are supplied with raw materials.
In the domestic market of Ukraine, manufacturers are holding back from sales, waiting for the best prices.

Nov 29 - Turkey provisionally sells 150,000 T barley in export tender, traders say.
Turkish state grain board TMO is believed to have provisionally sold an estimated 150,000 metric tons of barley in an export tender for the same volume on Thursday, European traders said. The sale depends on final approval in coming days. Tender volumes can be changed or cancelled completely.

 

 

Nov 29 - Egypt’s Mostakbal Misr reportedly makes no wheat, vegoil purchase – sources
Egypt’s Mostakbal Misr Agency for Sustainable Development is believed to have made no purchases in its wheat and vegetable oil procurement inquiry on Thursday, sources said. Traders said they had not heard of any price offers submitted, with companies seeking more information about purchasing and payment terms from the agency. 

Nov 29 - Argentina's soybean fields in good shape after recent rains, report shows
Argentina's 2024/25 soybean crop is in good condition after getting a moisture boost from rainfall in the country's main farming regions in recent weeks, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday. According to the exchange's weekly crop report, 98% of the area planted with soybeans now has adequate to optimal moisture.

Nov 28 - USDA October soy crush seen at record 210.9 million bushels, analysts say
The U.S. soybean crush in October likely jumped to a record-high 6.327 million short tons, or 210.9 million bushels, analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Monday. If the average of seven analyst estimates is realized, it would be up 13.1% from 186.5 million bushels crushed in September and up 4.7% from the October 2023 crush of 201.4 million bushels. 

Nov 28 - Brazil grain barge shipping returns as Amazonian drought subsides
Transportation of soybeans and corn on barges along the Brazilian Amazon's Tapajos River, which had been suspended in early October due to dry weather, resumed at 50% capacity this week, operators said on Wednesday. Shipping began again on that waterway, which receives grain cargos from Brazil's biggest farm state Mato Grosso and nearby areas, as rain raised river levels, said Amport, an association representing port terminals and cargo transshipment operators of the Amazon basin.

Nov 28 - Tunisia buys 100,000 T soft wheat, 100,000 T durum, traders say
Tunisia's state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 100,000 metric tons of soft wheat and about 100,000 tons of durum in an international tender for the same volume on Wednesday, European traders said. Traders said the soft wheat and durum were both bought in four 25,000 ton consignments from optional origins.

Nov 28 - Algeria bought 140,000 to 150,000 T wheat in 2 port tender, traders say
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have bought about 140,000 to 150,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender on Tuesday which sought limited shipment to two ports only, European traders said on Wednesday. Traders had reported the purchase on Tuesday evening but not been able to give assessments of tons bought.

 

Nov 27 - Trump tariffs could raise grocery, liquor bills - from beef and pork to avocados and tequila
U.S. prices may rise next year for avocados, strawberries and other fresh produce, and consumers could face shortages, if President-elect Donald Trump follows through on plans to slap tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, agricultural economists and industry executives said. Mexico and Canada are by far the top two suppliers of farm products to the United States, with imports of agricultural goods valued at nearly $86 billion last year, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Customs data. 

Nov 27 - Rains swell Mississippi River, US soy exports flow at 4-year high
Exporters have shipped soybeans from the busiest U.S. grains port at the fastest rate in nearly four years after rain raised water levels in the Mississippi River, government data showed. Some 60% of U.S. soy exports depart from Gulf Coast terminals that draw supplies from barges traveling south on the Mississippi, the country's most important grain waterway.

Nov 27 - Algeria bought wheat in tender for shipment to 2 ports, traders say
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have bought milling wheat in an international tender on Tuesday which sought limited shipment to two ports only, European traders said. Initial estimates of purchase price were around $267 a metric ton cost and freight included, they said. 

Nov 27 - Jordan buys estimated 60,000 T wheat in tender, traders say
Jordan's state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, traders said. It was believed to have been bought from trading house Cargill at an estimated $268.90 a ton cost and freight included for shipment in the second half of January 2025, they said.

 

Nov 26 - Warm weather helps EU farmers recover from sowing delays
Warmer and drier than average weather in most of the European Union since early last month helped farmers accelerate crop sowing and harvesting which had been delayed by heavy rainfall, the EU's crop monitoring service MARS said on Monday. However, conditions were unfavourable in large parts of southern Europe including Spain, where heavy rains and sometimes catastrophic floods caused delays in planting autumn crops, and major producer Romania. 

Nov 26 - US farm groups want Trump to spare their workers from deportation
U.S. farm industry groups want President-elect Donald Trump to spare their sector from his promise of mass deportations, which could upend a food supply chain heavily dependent on immigrants in the United States illegally. So far Trump officials have not committed to any exemptions, according to interviews with farm and worker groups and Trump's incoming "border czar" Tom Homan.

Nov 25 - Funds preserve bullish CBOT corn bets but snub soybeans and wheat -Braun
Speculators this month established their first bullish Chicago corn stance in over a year, and those views held last week despite weakness across U.S. grain and oilseed markets. CBOT corn futures fell fractionally in the week ended Nov. 19, though money managers increased their net long to 114,628 futures and options contracts from 109,989 a week earlier to fortify their most bullish corn position since February 2023. 

Nov 25 - Thailand to provide $1.1 billion support for rice farmers
Thailand will give support of 38 billion baht  to rice farmers in an effort to boost productivity, its agriculture minister said. Farmers will receive 1,000 baht ($29) per rai for up to 10 rai (1.6 hectares), minister Narumon Pinyosinwat told reporters, adding about 4.68 million households would benefit.

Nov 22 - IGC cuts global wheat crop outlook on poor EU harvest
The International Grains Council (IGC) said on Thursday it has trimmed its forecast for 2024/25 global wheat production driven partly by a diminished outlook for the European Union. The inter-governmental body, in its monthly update, cut its 2024/25 wheat crop outlook by 2 million metric tons to 796 million tons. 

Nov 22 - Wheat yields in Western Australia are better than expected, industry body says
Western Australia should produce 420,000 metric tons more wheat this year than was projected a month ago, an industry group said on Friday, adding to expectations that Australia's national crop will be larger than pre-harvest estimates. Analysts in Australia had already added around 1 million tons to their nationwide production estimates after early harvest results showed very high yields in the eastern state of New South Wales.

Nov 22 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market Report (SPIKE BROKERS)

- Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Letter-Dec @197$
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, November @209$
· sunflower meal DAP border of Ukraine, Feb-birch @222$

- Ukraine
· As of 21.11, late crops have been harvested in Ukraine: sunflower - 10.07 million tons (from 97% of the area), soybean - 6 million tons (from 99% of the area), corn - 23.62 million tons (from 94% of the area).
· As of 18.11, winter crops were sown: wheat - 4,380 thousand hectares (98%), barley - 610.5 thousand hectares (96%), rape - 1,081.4 thousand hectares (96%).
· Exports from Ukraine of grain, oilseeds and their products during the period from 1 to 20 November amounted to: corn - 1 708.2 thousand tons, wheat - 796.1 thousand tons, barley - 66.3 thousand tons, soybeans 357.1 - thousand tons, rape - 264.8  thousand tons, sunflower - 0.8 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 307 thousand tons, soybean oil - 24.8 thousand tons, oilcake (soybean and sunflower) - 242.1 thousand tons.
- Europe
· Imports of corn to the EU between July 01 and November 19 is 7.6 million tons, which is 11% more than the same period last year. During the week, Ukraine's share in total imports increased to 49.7% (47.3% was last week and 46.3% a year ago). Brazil had reduced its share for the week to 19.4% (20.3% last week and 40.1% a year ago). The United States dropped the frequency of the week to 16.6% (17.5% last week and 1.3% a year ago).

- CORN
On the foreign market, buyers remain inactive, while the supply from manufacturers remains high. This creates an excess and increases the pressure on prices, forming an imbalance between supply and demand and complicating the conclusion of long-term contracts.
During the week, the prices of Ukrainian grain remained stable, as the decline that was observed earlier stopped. This was the result of a reduction in the supply of agricultural producers.

- WHEAT
The growth of futures prices on the MATIF exchange did not affect the EU physical market. During the week, prices did not change dramatically. The supply of wheat remains high, while the demand from buyers leaves much to be desired.
Wheat prices in the Ukrainian market have decreased slightly. The supply of wheat, particularly food, remains moderate. Agrarians refrain from selling, expecting the best price, while buyers are not ready to raise their purchase prices because of the high competition in the world markets.

- SUNFLOWER
During the week, processors reduced the purchase prices for sunflower, arguing that it is a correction of prices in the world oil market. However, manufacturers are in no hurry to sell, despite the risk of further fall. Farmers continue to refrain from sales, knowing about the limited stocks of raw materials in plants and waiting for the highest price.
The price of sunflower oil in the ports of Odessa has also been corrected, having decreased by an average of 20-25$.

- SOYA
Large volumes of Brazilian and American soybeans continue to saturate the European market. Processing enterprises are almost supplied with raw materials, so the demand on their part is reduced. In Ukraine, the supply of soybeans from manufacturers has decreased. Most farmers are no longer willing to sell crops because of low prices for them.

Nov 21 - Flour millers face supply crunch as wheat farmers tighten grip on stocks
Wheat growers in several exporting countries are reluctant to sell their crops with prices near four-year lows, traders, farmers and millers say, leaving flour makers with dwindling supplies and vulnerable to any potential upswing in prices. Typically grain processors buy wheat three to four months in advance. 

Nov 21 - China's nod to Brazilian sorghum may serve as test for US relations - Braun
China on Wednesday gave Brazil the go-ahead to begin exporting sorghum to Chinese buyers, a somewhat peculiar move since Brazil hardly exports the grain at all. But the United States has a dominant presence in the Chinese sorghum market, which is why the development could help gauge U.S.-China trade relations going forward, especially from January when President-elect Donald Trump begins his second term.

Nov 21 - Algeria buys durum wheat after talks on Wednesday, traders say
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased a small additional volume of durum wheat in negotiations in an international tender which continued on Wednesday, European traders said. The tender had closed on Tuesday with some initial purchases reported. 

Nov 21 - Algeria bought South American corn in tender, volume unclear, traders say
Algerian state agency ONAB is believed to have bought an unknown volume of animal feed corn to be sourced from Argentina or Brazil in an international tender for up to 240,000 tons which closed on Tuesday, European traders said on Wednesday. Some traders said at least one consignment of up to 40,000 tons was bought.

Nov 20 - EU 2024/25 soft wheat exports down 31% by Nov 17
Soft wheat exports from the European Union since the start of the 2024/25 season in July had reached 8.79 million metric tons by Nov. 17, down 31% from 12.66 million a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. EU barley exports totalled 1.83 million tons, down 37% from 2.91 million tons in the corresponding period in 2023/24.

Nov 20 - EU 2024/25 soybean imports up 9% by Nov 17, rapeseed up 16%
European Union soybean imports so far in the 2024/25 season that started in July had reached 4.75 million metric tons by Nov. 17, up 9% compared with 4.36 million tons a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. EU rapeseed imports in the same period totalled 2.34 million tons, up 16% from 2.02 million a year earlier, while soymeal imports reached 7.08 million tons, 23% above the 5.76 million imported by the same time the previous year.

Nov 20 - China's October soy imports from US climb for seventh month
China's soybean imports from the U.S. more than doubled in October from a year earlier, marking a seventh month of growth, as buyers accelerated shipments fearing a rise in trade tensions if Donald Trump were to return to the White House. Trump won the U.S. presidential election the following month in a comeback that is likely to reignite trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.  

Nov 20 - Ukraine 2025 wheat crop seen rising on larger sowing area, minister says
Ukraine's wheat harvest may increase to up to 25 million metric tons next year from an expected 22 million tons this year thanks to a larger sowing area, the first deputy agriculture minister Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters in an interview. In the first official forecast for next year's harvest, Vysotskiy said the sowing area could reach 5 million hectares in 2025 versus 4.6 million in 2024.

Nov 19 - Record wheat imports forecast for Morocco (Grain Brokers Australia)

SEVERE drought decimated cereal production in Morocco this year with the final numbers proving even worse than the dire pre-harvest government expectations. This will increase the quantity of wheat that Moroccan millers will need to purchase in the international market over the course of its 2024-25 marketing year ending May 31. Terminals will be kept busy with record wheat imports forecast for Morocco in the near term.

In late September, the Moroccan Government released its final wheat and barley production numbers for the 2024 harvest, with poor results forcing authorities to continue to support milling wheat imports through a flat-rate subsidy to contain food prices and dampen domestic inflation. Total wheat output was pegged at 2.47 million tonnes (Mt), including 700,000t of durum. The wheat crop was 40.6pc lower than the 2023-24 harvest of 4.16Mt. It was even lower than the 2022-23 production disaster of 2.71Mt and is the smallest crop since the 1.58Mt harvest in 2007-08.

- Dismal barley

The barley story is even worse, with the government’s final production number of 650,000t, 51.9pc lower than the 2023-24 output of 1.35Mt. Like wheat, this year’s harvest result was worse than the poor 2022-23 season and is the smallest barley crop since the 2016-17 season when production was only 620,000t. The problems started last autumn, with a poor soil-moisture profile across much of the cropping area leading to a sharp fall in the planted area, the lowest in more than two decades. Seeding in some regions was not completed until January of this year as farmers awaited the season’s first rainfall. Much of Morocco has been in drought for a number of years, peaking in 2023, which was considered the driest ever recorded, with a mean rainfall deficit of 48pc compared to the nation’s long-term average. In the past, Morocco has devoted as much as 5M hectares to cereal crops each year, but the lack of rainfall leading up to last year’s planting window resulted in just 2.7Mha being planted to cereals last autumn for the 2024-25 harvest. Furthermore, sparse in-crop rainfall and poor growing conditions resulted in a very low vegetative index for almost the entire season. Only some very good and timely precipitation in the spring month of March rescued the crop and avoided a total wipeout.

According to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, domestic wheat consumption in Morocco is set to increase in line with population growth from 10Mt in 2023-24 to 10.1Mt this season. With very little wheat going into domestic stockfeed rations, the Maghreb nation’s FSI consumption (food, seed and industrial) accounts for more than 98pc of total wheat demand. The FAS is calling domestic barley consumption unchanged year on year at 2.3Mt, 1.5Mt of which is classified as feed and residual, mostly stockfeed rations, and 800,000t is FSI demand, largely for beer, medicinal syrups, energy drinks, vinegar, and baby foods.

The poor harvest is likely to see this season’s wheat imports increase by more than 20pc from 6.24Mt last season to a record 7.5Mt in 2024-25. On the other hand, after an extremely tight carry-in necessitated a big year for imports in 2023-24, international barley purchases in 2024-25 are expected to drop from 1.5Mt to 1.2Mt.
Russia set to supply what France cannot

While the EU has traditionally been Morocco’s biggest supplier of wheat, the tide is turning toward the Black Sea region to meet the rising import demand. Morocco National Federation of Grain and Pulses Traders (FNCL) head Omar Yacoubi expected Russia to surpass France as the leading soft wheat supplier to Morocco in 2024-25, believing that France lacks the necessary quality and quantity to supply the Moroccan market this year. Buyers must turn to other exporters such as Russia, Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria out of the Black Sea, with Poland and the Baltic States also likely to increase volumes. In 2023-24, the EU-27 supplied around 4.58Mt, or 73.5pc of the import program, much of which was shipped from France. This was down 8pc year on year, from just over 5Mt and 80.1pc of the task. Canada was the second-biggest supplier with around 870,000t, 18.4pc lower than in 2022-23.

After an enforced two-year hiatus, imports from Russia resumed in 2023-24 to become the third largest supplier, accounting for around 8pc of the program at just over 500,000t. Ukraine supplied up to 20pc of Morocco’s soft wheat imports in the years prior to the Russian invasion. While it did recover some ground in 2023-24, at 180,000t it was still less than 3pc of the total milling wheat program. The two main barley suppliers in 2023-24 were the EU-27 with 1.22Mt and Russia with 270,000t, collectively accounting for 97.3pc of the shipments. Member states of the EU-27 were the sole suppliers in the 2022-23 marketing year with a meagre 350,000t barley imports.

- MATIF anomaly

Moroccan state-run grains agency Office National Interprofessionnel des Céréales et des Légumineuses (ONICL) pays merchants a subsidy for each tonne of wheat imported, regardless of origin, to compensate for relatively high global prices. ONICL reportedly bases the subsidy calculation each month on French, German, US and Argentinian wheat prices. This means that the rebate has a strong correlation with Matif wheat futures but bears very little semblance to Black Sea values.

When Matif futures rise, Moroccan importers can expect a higher rebate for wheat imports in the subsequent month. If physical prices remain stable or fall at the origin, it is doubly attractive for domestic consumers to purchase that wheat for arrival in the following calendar month. This creates a distinct advantage for export origins where physical prices are not tied to Matif futures, such as the Black Sea, Russia and Ukraine in particular.

Analysis of early season trade data reveals that Russia supplied almost 400,000t in the first four months of its 2024-25 marketing year. This is around 80pc of total Russian wheat shipments to Morocco in the entire 2023-24 year. By comparison, at 500,000t, French shipments accounted for around 29pc of the four-month program. However, 60pc of this was in June, with the Baltic States completely pushing France out of the equation in September.

The rebate system is likely to be one of the reasons for the flurry of buying activity over the past six weeks for November delivery. While Russian milling wheat appears to have lost competitiveness relative to French origin with the recent slide in Matif futures, Moroccan importers reportedly have as much as 1Mt of milling wheat on their books for November delivery alone, around half of which appears to be Russian, and only a quarter French.

Nov 19 - ADM's Q3 earnings fall, report delayed after more accounting errors found
Global grain trader Archer-Daniels-Midland reported lower third-quarter profits on Monday due to weakness in its grain business, an announcement delayed by the need to correct irregularities in accounts of its operating units. Prices for staple crops like corn and soybeans have slid to near four-year lows, hurting ADM's profits and margins, especially in its grain origination and crushing business. 

Nov 19 - US agriculture in crosshairs as Brazil and China cozy up -Braun
U.S. agricultural exporters have seen a marked decline in business to China over the past year or so as trade tensions simmer, and Brazil’s increasing ability to supply product has not helped the U.S. cause. But now Brazil is looking to beef up – literally – its agricultural trade ties with China and capitalize on potential tariff escalations between the United States and China once President-elect Donald Trump begins his second term in January. 

Nov 18 - Indonesia to review palm oil export levies, policy may not changeIndonesia is looking to review the way it sets palm oil export levies to maintain competitiveness against rival edible oils, an official said, describing it as a regular move to evaluate its trade policy. Malaysian palm oil futures last week rose as traders anticipated a possible change in Indonesia's export levy or tax structure, though prices fell in early trade Monday, tracking weakness in rival Dalian oils and pressured by a strong ringgit. 

Nov 18 - UK confirms bird flu cases at commercial poultry farm
Britain said on Sunday it had confirmed a strain of the H5N1 bird flu virus in commercial poultry at premises near the town of St Ives in southwest England. All poultry on the premises will be humanely culled, and a 3 km protection zone and 10 km surveillance zone have been put in place, the UK government added in a statement.

Nov 15 - Ukrainian Weekly Agri Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERs)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @199$->196$
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @391$
· sunflower VO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @31'800₴
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @1'165$
· sunflower meal DAP border of Ukraine, Jan-Feb @228.50$

- Ukraine
· Exports from Ukraine of cereals, oilseeds and their products during the period from 1 to 13 November amounted to: corn - 1 115.9 thousand tons, wheat - 496.3 thousand tons, barley - 37.1 thousand tons, soybeans 226.6 - thousand tons, rape - 174.8  thousand tons, sunflower - 0.4 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 220 thousand tons, soybean oil - 15.1 thousand tons, oilcake (soybean and sunflower) - 186.1 thousand tons.
· As of 14.11, late crops have been harvested in Ukraine: sunflower - 9.95 million tons (from 97% of the area), soybeans - 5.88 million tons (from 98% of the area), corn - 22.34 million tons (from 88% of the area).
· As of 11.11, winter crops were sown: wheat - 4,352 thousand hectares (97%), barley - 577.8 thousand hectares (90%), rape - 1,079.5 thousand hectares (96%).

- Europe
· FranceAgriMer reduced French wheat export forecasts within and outside the EU by 24/25 MY to 3.9 million tons, which is 62% lower than last season, due to the worst wheat harvest in 40 years.

- CORN
The sharp rise in the price of the MATIF exchange last week was more speculative. The physical market did not respond to it. Prices for corn in the EU continue to decline due to high supply and low demand from buyers, especially for remote deliveries.
During the week, grain prices in Ukrainian ports fell by an average of 2-3$ due to the high offer, which made it more competitive in the EU market. An additional factor contributing to the improvement of the situation of Ukrainian corn is the sharp strengthening of the US dollar, which makes US grain more expensive for imports. However, for a significant strengthening of positions, a further decline in prices is necessary.

- WHEAT
Low demand and good supply of wheat from key exporters continue to put pressure on the European market.
In the Ukrainian market, the decline has been forage wheat, while the prices of food grain have not undergone drastic changes. Farmers continue to hold high-protein wheat, waiting for prices to rise.

- SUNFLOWER
At the beginning of the week, sunflower prices continued to grow against the background of low supply and high demand from processors. Sunflower oil in the ports of Odessa has increased by an average of $ 10 per week. Over the past month, the premium for high oleic sunflower has increased from 2000 UAH to 4000 UAH.
However, since the middle of the week, prices have stopped, and the market began to talk about a possible reversal of the trend. Some processors have attempted to cut prices, citing world oil prices falling. However, we should not forget about the low sunflower harvest in Ukraine this season, which will directly affect the market.

- SOYA
Soybean prices on the European market have undergone a small correction. Demand from processing plants remains high, but the high supply of soybeans is increasingly pressing the European market. On the Ukrainian market, prices continue to decline due to high supply against the background of a good harvest in the country.

Nov 15 - EU wheat area to rebound, barley and maize to fall, Strategie Grains says
The soft wheat area in the European Union should rebound sharply next year after planting weather improved, while barley and maize are set to lose ground, consultancy Strategie Grains said. In initial projections for the 2025/26 crop, the firm estimated that the area sown with soft wheat, the EU's most-produced cereal, will rise by 1 million hectares, or about 5%, from the 20.4 million hectares harvested this season. 

Nov 15 - Argentina's soy planting makes fast progress after abundant rains
Argentina's Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday that soybean planting had progressed very smoothly over the past week, following abundant rainfall across key parts of the major grains supplier's agricultural heartlands. Argentina is the world's top exporter of soybean oil and meal, and its farmers have already planted some 20.1% of an expected 18.6 million hectares this season, the exchange said, marking a rapid 12.2 percentage point increase over the last week. 

Nov 14 - EU wheat exports shift westwards as Russian trade spreadsEuropean Union wheat exports are increasingly focused on the western side of Africa after losing out to Russia in major North African and Middle Eastern markets, traders said on Wednesday. EU shipments of common wheat, or soft wheat, so far in 2024/25 are 30% below the year-earlier level, curbed by Russian-led competition and a rain-hit harvest in top EU grower France. 

Nov 14 - Argentina exchange ups soybean harvest estimate after rains help planting
Argentina's Rosario grains exchange raised its forecast for the country's 2024/25 soybean crop on Wednesday, as improved rainfall in the second half of October allowed farmers to pick up the pace of planting. Argentina's projected soybean production was revised slightly upward to between 53 million and 53.5 million metric tons, from a prior estimate of between 52 and 53 million tons.

Nov 13 - There is still high competition between processors and exporters for feed corn in Ukraine (APK-Inform)

No significant price adjustments were observed in the sector of feed corn last week. High competition for grain between processors and export-oriented companies and insufficiently active supply of grain due to restrained sales by agrarians continued to support prices.

However, downward price dynamics on the export market put pressure on prices. The final stage of harvesting late crops continues, which also influenced the gradual decline in prices.

Demand prices for feed corn were voiced mainly in the range of UAH 8100-9200/t CPT.

Nov 13 - China's soybean imports may fall 9.5% this marketing year, COFCO executive says
China's soybean imports are likely to drop by 9.5% in the marketing year ending in September 2025, an executive of China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO) said on Wednesday. Overseas shipments of soybeans into China, the world's biggest consumer of the oilseed, will drop to 98.8 million metric tons in the year to September 2025 from 109.4 million tons shipped in the prior year, the executive, who asked to remain unidentified, said in a speech at an oilseeds conference. 

Nov 13 - EU 2024/25 soft wheat exports down 30% by Nov. 10
Soft wheat exports from the European Union since the start of the 2024/25 season in July had reached 8.34 million metric tons by Nov. 10, down 30% from 11.96 million a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. EU barley exports totalled 1.77 million tons, down 40% from 2.83 million tons in the corresponding period in 2023/24.

Nov 12 - Argentine soy farmers to speed through planting after weekend rains
Rains over the weekend in parts of Argentina's agricultural heartland mean that farmers will able to keep up the quick pace in planting of this season's soy crop, the Rosario grains exchange said on Monday. The South American nation's main growing region logged between 7mm (0.28 inch) and 15mm (0.59 inch) of rain in recent days, but the north and the eastern plains saw up to 40mm (1.57 inches), according to the exchange. 

Nov 12 - Russian lobby group says officials inflate grain harvest figures
Russia's official grain harvest estimate is likely to include harvests from territories annexed from Ukraine and refer to bunker weight rather than clean weight to deliberately inflate numbers, the head of an industry lobby group said. The agriculture ministry forecasts this year's grain harvest at 130 million tons, following months of bad weather.

Nov 12 - Ukrainian Daily Agri Report (BARVA Invest)

- Wheat
DAP-Port Danube (11.5%) - 207-210+ $/t
DAP-Deep Sea Ports (11.5%) - 207-212 $/t

Wheat quotations at the end of yesterday's trading showed a decrease in pressure to reduce the cost of the offer from the Russian Federation and against the background of a gradual decline in weather risks for the future harvest in the Northern Hemisphere.

· South Korea has purchased 65 thousand tons of fodder wheat without a tender announcement.
· According to Minagro, the dynamics of winter wheat sowing in Ukraine has reached 4.35 million hectares (97% of the plan).

In the Ukrainian market, wheat prices showed minor adjustments depending on the needs of individual buyers.

- Corn
DAP-Port Danube - 198-201+ $/t
DAP-Deep Sea Ports - 192-196+ $/t

Corn quotes showed a minimum decline after active growth on the eve of and a background of limited trading activity.

· The Ministry of Agriculture of China increased the assessment of imports of corn to the country in the 2023/24 season from 23 to 23.41 million tons. The forecast for 2024/25 MY was 13 million tons.
· According to StoneX, 59.7% of the first 2024/25 corn harvest was sown in Brazil compared to 54.6% in the previous season.

The prices of corn on the Ukrainian market have held back in the previous limits, but the overall pressure remains.

Nov 11 - West Europe sowings resume but delays dent wheat crop potential
Drier weather has sped up sowing campaign in western Europe possibly allowing the continent to avoid a repeat of one of the worst harvests in decades seen this year, analysts said. Field work has resumed in most parts of the bloc due to drier conditions in the last two weeks, and the trend is expected to continue in the coming 10 days, with warm conditions set to boost crop development.

Nov 11 - India's rice inventories hit record high, triples govt target
India's rice inventories surged to an all-time high of 29.7 million metric tons in November, sources said on Friday, nearly three times the government's target, as export curbs imposed over the past two years bumped up local supplies. Higher stocks would allow the world's biggest rice exporter to boost shipments without worrying about domestic supplies, which were limited last year and led New Delhi to restrict exports of all grades.

Nov 11 - South Korea's MFG bought around 65,000 metric tons feed wheat
South Korea's Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a private deal without issuing an international tender, European traders said. One consignment was purchased at an estimated $261.80 a ton c&f plus a $1.50 a tonne surcharge for additional port unloading.

Nov 11 - Indonesia may not import rice in 2025, says senior minister
Indonesia may not import rice in 2025, Zulkifli Hasan, a senior minister overseeing food affairs, said. Indonesia's rice output is estimated to fall 2.43% this year to 30.34 million metric tons, due to a delay in planting and the harvest season after dry weather in 2023, the statistics bureau said last month.

Nov 08 - Ukrainian Agri Weekly Report (barvainvest)

- WHEAT
Wheat trading activity is seasonally decreasing. 11.5% wheat is bid $210-212, feed $203-205 DAP POC.
FOB market is stable feed offered at $223-224, 11.5% wheat at $232-235 FOB POC for Dec. Most of the export flow is getting pumped from earlier-
originated inland stocks.
4.3MHa of winter wheat is planted (96% of the plan). Farmers in the South (Odessa) were rather active planting this week. Frosts are forecasted for SH Nov, and this will round up the planting works. 199Kmt of wheat was exported in Nov 1-6, export line-up is at 417Km

- CORN
Corn remained flat/lower across the week, prices ranged $194-199 DAP POC, Nov-Dec delivery. FOB market was bid at $210-211 for Nov, offers were at $215+. Some spot selling pressure was noted on FOB/CIF, which has kept a lid over the market. Overall price perspective remains neutral/bearish, and we note more willingness from farmers to place sales. Ukrainian corn is at risk of getting priced out as most of the shorts are getting covered, so seller’s hopes of price improvement are fading. Corn has to get sharper (cheaper), to avoid slowing of exports and potential decrease of export in 24/25 from 20Mmt to 19Mmt or lower, mainly on account of smaller imports appetite by Spain (buying the U.S. origin instead) and China (better crop, smaller need for imports).
Harvest update: 20.24Mmt is harvested from 84% of the planned areas, average yield improved to 6.06mt/Ha (7.4 LY). 612Kmt of corn was exported in Nov 1-6, export line-up is at 494Kmt.

- FEED BARLEY
Barley market is bid $185-186 DAP POC, selling liquidity is close to zero.
FOB levels remained at $208 for Dec (nominal). 1.7Mmt of barley was exported since Jul 1.
Export potential is estimated at 2.5Mmt. 13.2Kmt of barley was exported in Nov 1-6, additional 5.4Kmt is loading, no further vessels in the line-up for now.

- SUNFLOWER
Sunseeds market continues to get a support from CSFO (CSFO since last Friday increased $10-15/mt to $1140-1145DAP POC) and stable meal ($220-225DAP POC for granulated) prices. UAH is steadily devaluating, and we hear that bids to port plants for 50% oil content seeds have reached 28000 UAH ($591 net of VAT, or +$5-6/mt on the week). Farmers continue to sell hand-to-mouth. 96Kmt of CSFO was exported in Nov 1-6, 147Kmt more in the line-up.

- RAPESEED
Rapeseed market is steady/slowing on the back of smaller (200-300KMt) unsold surplus. Price ideas kick-off at $520 DAP POC for 42% oil content, and there is a room for improvement. We hear less alarming signals as to pre-winter vegetation process, most of the rapeseed plantings have improved thanks to milder
weather. More precipitation is required though. 140Kmt of rapeseed is exported in Nov 1-6, 60Kmt more in the line-up.

- SOYBEAN
Soybean market is unchanged for GMO beans - $380-385DAP POC. Non-GMO is weaker, the best ideas we heard today were within $425DAP POC v.s. $470 two weeks ago. Exporters complain on weak demand at destinations and sufficient coverage there.

Nov 08 - Ukrainian Agri Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

- Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter-Dec @9'250₴
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter-Dec @199.5$->197$
· corn DAP Danube, Ukraine, letter @203$

- Ukraine
· As of 07.11, late crops have been harvested in Ukraine: sunflower - 9.68 million tons (from 95% of the area), soybean - 5.82 million tons (from 96% of the area), corn - 20.24 million tons (from 83% of the area).
· As of 04.11, winter crops were sown: wheat - 4,296 thousand hectares (96%), barley - 543.6 thousand hectares (85%), rape - 1,073.5 thousand hectares (96%).
· Exports from Ukraine of grain, oilseeds and their processing products in the period from 1 to 6 November amounted to: corn - 612.2 thousand tons, wheat - 199.3 thousand tons, barley - 13.2 thousand tons, soybeans 104.2 - thousand tons, rape - 139.4 thousand tons, sunflower - 0.2 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 96 thousand tons, soybean oil - 5.2 thousand tons, oilcake (soybean and sunflower) - 56 thousand tons.
- World
· In October, China imported 8.09 million tons of soy, which is the largest monthly indicator for 4 years. Total soybean imports for 10 months of 2024 amounted to 89.94 million tons, which is 11.2% more than in the same period of 2023.
- Europe
· During the period from 01 July to 03 November, corn imports to the EU reached 6.6 million tons, which is 8% more than the same period last year. Ukraine's share in total imports was 46.4% (against 43.2% last year). The US share is currently 18.6% (versus 1.4%). Not only the United States is increasing its share in imports to the EU, but also Serbia, whose share has increased to 6.8% (against 1.4%). Brazil's share of the country, in turn, dropped to 20% (against 42.7%).

- CORN
The sharp rise in prices on the MATIF exchange has not yet affected the physical market of Europe. Demand in the EU is largely due to domestic production as well as imports from Brazil and the United States by the end of the year. Ukraine needs to decrease in prices to the level of 188-190$ to find markets.
The difficulties with the sale in foreign markets slowed down the activity and demand from traders in ports. On the Western border, prices have decreased to 185-188€ loaded in the European train.

- WHEAT
High grain culture supply and low demand put pressure on the European market and stimulate prices to decline. An additional factor was also the reduction in the cost of logistics transportation and the decline in wheat prices on the MATIF exchange.
In Ukraine, wheat prices have not changed much. The supply of wheat is still limited. Feed grain farmers began to hold.

- SUNFLOWER
The low supply of sunflower seeds, especially with high oil content, stimulated the growth of prices in the Ukrainian market to an almost historical maximum. However, since mid-week, some processors have begun trying to push the market downwards. Farmers are not yet yield, waiting for further growth.
Sunflower oil in the ports of Odessa increased by an average of 10-15$, which in turn is an additional factor for the growth of sunflower prices.

- SOYA
In the European market, there were no significant changes in prices for soybeans this week. On the one hand, high supply from the USA, Brazil and Ukraine presses on the market, on the other — the demand of processing enterprises in the EU, which remains at a high level.
In Ukraine, increasing the supply of soybeans from farmers contributed to lower prices.

Nov 08 - US farmers to seed more corn, less wheat and soybeans for 2025/26
U.S. farmers are likely to expand plantings of corn while reducing seedings of soybeans and wheat for the upcoming marketing year, according to data forecasts released by the U.S. Agriculture Department on Thursday. The USDA forecast that farmers will seed 92.0 million acres of corn in the 2025/26 crop year, up from 90.7 million in 2024/25. For soybeans, acreage is projected to fall to 85.0 million acres, from 87.1 million.

Nov 08 - US soybean trade with China already strained before Trump's return - Braun
Uncertainty increased for U.S. soybean exporters this week with Donald Trump's election win, since shipments to top customer China were severely curbed when a trade war began during Trump’s first presidency. However, U.S. soybean trade to China was already going poorly prior to Tuesday’s election, and some of the latest statistics are the most dismal since the trade war.

Nov 08 - South Korea’s NOFI buys 65,000 T corn, 63,000 T feed wheat
Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) bought an estimated 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 63,000 tons of feed wheat in a tender on Thursday, European traders said. The corn was purchased at an estimated premium of 192 U.S. cents a bushel over the Chicago March 2025 corn contract cost and freight (c&f) included, plus a $1.50 a ton surcharge for additional port unloading.

Nov 07 - China set for record soybean imports in 2024 ahead of Trump's inauguration
China imported 8.09 million metric tons of soybeans in October with buyers rushing to stockpile before Donald Trump takes office early next year, as the world's top soybean buyer heads for its largest annual imports on record.  October arrivals were the biggest for the month in four years, surging 56% from 5.18 million tons a year ago, according to Reuters' calculations of customs data released.

Nov 07 - Indonesia confident palm oil production can be increased to meet biofuel demand
Indonesia's chief economic minister said he is confident palm oil production can be increased in coming years to meet the country's rising demand for energy as the mandatory biodiesel blendis poised to expand. Indonesia's government plans to expand the mandatory blend of biodiesel to contain 40% of palm oil-based fuel in 2025 - called B40 - from 35% currently, and is expected to increase the mix further.

Nov 07 - South Korea’s NOFI tenders for 138,000 T corn, 60,000 T wheat
South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 60,000 tons of feed corn, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is also Thursday, Nov. 7.

Nov 07 - Russia's grain policies help Ukraine secure sales
Russia's curbs on wheat exports have inadvertently helped Ukraine secure lucrative sales to Egypt this week while also inflating prices for the world's top importer, traders said. Egypt's state grains buyer GASC bought 290,000 metric tons of wheat in an international tender on Monday.

Nov 07 - Ukrainian Agrimarket Report ( Barva Invest )

EURUSD – 1,0758
USDUAH - 41,4562 (NBU)

Wheat
DAP-Port Danube (11.5%) - 208-212+ $/t
DAP-Deep Sea Ports (11.5%) - 206-212+ $/t

On Chicago, wheat shows an attempt at consolidation, while on Euronext, wheat still remains under pressure from a sufficient export supply from the Black Sea region. Meanwhile, the net short position of funds for wheat on Euronext increased to 142.5 thousand contracts.

· Before the release of WASDE, the final wheat residues in the USA in the 2024/25 season are estimated at 813 million bu (WASDE in October - 812 million bu). The world's final remnants for the 2024-25 season were estimated at 256.8 million tons (257.7 million tons).
· Since the beginning of MY 2024/25 (July 1), the EU has exported 7.76 million tons of wheat compared to 11.33 million tons last year.
· According to Census, the United States exported 2.44 million tons of wheat in September, which is 33.3% higher than last year.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, wheat prices are still at the same levels. However, with each subsequent trading week, there is an increase in the imbalance between supply and demand, especially considering the significantly faster implementation of the export program against previous seasons.

Corn
DAP-Port Danube - 198-202+ $/t
DAP-Deep Sea Ports - 193-199+ $/t

As the harvest progresses, the corn in Chicago is slowly growing. Domestic demand in the United States remains record, while in the export market this country shows the best shipments in the last 4 years.

· Before the release of WASDE, the final remnants of corn in the United States in the 2024/25 season are estimated at 1.94 billion bu (WASDE in October - 1.99 billion bu). The remaining world-wide totals for the 2024/25 season are estimated to be 305.7 million tons (WASDE 306.52 million tons). Forecast of corn production in the USA in 2024 - 15.19 billion bu (15.20 billion bu), yield - 183.7 bu/acre (183.8 bu/acre).
· USDA announced the sale of 124 thousand tons of corn harvest 2024/25 from the United States in an unknown direction.

Meanwhile, in our domestic market, there is still a high price gap between sellers and buyers. In part, support for prices on the CPT base comes from the cheaper cost of maritime logistics and lower transshipment rates in terminals.

Nov 06 - ADM down 6% as more accounting errors arise, profit forecast cut
Archer-Daniels-Midland shares ended down 6% on Tuesday after the global grains merchant cut its 2024 profit outlook and said it would amend previous financial statements due to the discovery of fresh accounting irregularities. The drop wiped away about $1.6 billion of market value off one of the world's biggest crop traders as shares dove to the lowest since January 2021.

Nov 06 - India's summer-sown rice output expected at record 120 million tons
India's summer-sown rice output, which accounts for bulk of its annual production, is expected to hit a record 120 million metric tons in the 2024-25 crop year, the farm ministry said in its first production estimate. Farmers in India, the world's second-biggest rice producer, gathered 113.3 million metric tons of summer-planted rice during the 2023-2024 crop year as patchy monsoon rains, triggered by the El Nino weather pattern, dragged down output.

Nov 06 - Jordan buys about 60,000 T wheat in tender, traders say
Jordan's state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, traders said. It was believed to have been bought from trading house CHS at an estimated $271.30 a ton cost and freight included (c&f) for shipment in the first half of February 2025, they said.

Nov 05 - USDA raises winter wheat ratings, still 2nd worst on recordThe U.S. winter wheat crop was off to its second worst start on record dating back to 1986 after a weekly U.S. Department of Agriculture's report showed just 41% of the recently seeded crop in good-to-excellent condition as of Sunday. The low rating, up slightly from a week earlier and matching expectations from a Reuters poll of 10 analysts, comes as crops in other major exporting countries including Argentina, Australia and Russia have been hit by dry conditions.Nov 05 - Egypt's GASC buys 290,000 tonnes of wheat in tender, traders sayEgypt's state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), is believed to have bought 290,000 metric tons of wheat in an international tender, traders said. The purchase comprised 120,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat, 120,000 tons of Romanian wheat, and 50,000 tons of Bulgarian wheat, they added.

Nov 04 - Egypt resumes wheat tender after failed August buying
Egypt's state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said on Sunday it was seeking an unspecified amount of wheat in an international purchasing tender for the first time since August. The offers deadline is Nov. 4, submitted on a free on board (FOB) basis with payment using 270-day letters of credit, it said.

Nov 04 - Funds assemble least bearish CBOT corn view since August 2023 - Braun
Speculators reversed course in the Chicago corn market last week, scrapping what had been relatively fresh short bets as U.S. corn export demand hits a fever pitch. Chicago grain and oilseed futures were down across the board in the week ended Oct. 29.

Nov 04 - Vancouver port employer could shut out foremen, bulk grain will not be hit
Port of Vancouver foremen will be locked out on Monday unless they scrap a proposed strike, employers at Canada's biggest port said on Friday, but bulk grain handling would not be affected. Canada's west coast ports are major outlets for resource exports, including potash, coal, forestry products, pork and beef.

Nov 04 - Argentina's grains export revenue jumps more than 200% in October
Argentina's farm sector brought in a total of $2.55 billion through exports in October, a 243% increase compared to the some month a year earlier, the CIARA-CEC oilseed and grains crusher chamber and exporters said on Friday. CIARA-CEC noted in a report that revenues from the sector's companies rose nearly 3% compared to September. In the January-October period there was an 21% increase.

Nov 01 - Ukrainian Agri Market Report ( BARVA Invest )

- Wheat market was unchanged today, and overall stable this week. Feed wheat offers on FOB POC are at $224 for Nov and $226 for Dec, bids are within $220FOB and $206-207DAP. 11.5%
wheat is offered at $230FOB POC for Nov and $235 for Dec. Buyers are at $221-226FOB or $210-213DAP POC.
- Line-up is at 366Kmt, destinations Spain, Indonesia and Pakistan. Ukrainian wheat is approaching 8Mmt export (out of 15-16Mmt surplus). Bearing in mind aggressive competition from russian side, we think that Jul 1-to-date wheat exports are unnecessarily active (this most likely resulted in spot longs in ports, which were popular in Aug-Sep, which were forced to liquidate). As russian market discharges too intensively on the back of 10Mmt lower surplus there, we expect wheat prices to firm in coming months.

- Corn market kicked-off the week at $200+DAP POC for Nov and is down to $198+/- 1-2$ (~$212 or CZ126 FOB equivalent) now. Exporters are struggling to score sales at $215 FOB POC or better levels. Some have covered premium shorts this week, and most of the buyers are now quoting the replacement levels of current CIF MENA demand. Most of the markets is covered through end-Dec. However, as corn demand declines, farmers are also able to reject sales at lower levels.
- Port line-up is steady at 438Kmt, port stocks and corn en-route to ports is in harmony or even surplus to the line-up we see. Short-squeeze is averted. We could be switching to overflow of corn to the ports, which may create spot push on the supply side.

- Barley market was $1-3 firmer offer side, with russian values reaching $210-211FOB Novo Nov-Dec. In Ukraine just 10Kmt is offered at $208 FOB Chornomorsk for Nov. Activity is nearly absent

- Sunseeds keep building firmer ($570-580 DAP crush plant net of VAT), amplified by the devaluating UAH, and farmers sell small lots only if they have no other choice. Most of the crush remains in the red zone for spot crush margins. Position trading has worked well for those crushers who were bidding premium levels and rolled the longs.

- CSFO values improved by further $15-20 during the week, reaching $1260 on FOB 6 ports for JFM and $1100+ on DAP POC.
- Sunmeal is sideways, latest buying ideas hover around $215-220 DAP port.

- Rapeseed trading activity continues to decrease. One panamax is planned to France, prices continue to hover around $515 DAP POC.

- Soybean market remained steady , non-GMO is bid $440-450 (demand for it is decreasing, so does the premium), GMO beans are stable at $380-390. Farmers are well covered with cash and prefer to stay proud on the back of devaluating UAH. However, if sale is to be made, soybeans remain a popular choice. Most of the time, though, farmers sell hand-to-mouth. 44Kmt of vessels are in the line-up to Egypt, Greece, and Turkey. Most of the flow directed at local crush, which continues to score acceptable margins. Crushers however are starting to voice challenges in meal sales.

Nov 01 - Weekly Ukrainian Commodity Grain Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

- Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @201$
· DAP corn Mon. Italy, letter @233€
· sunflower DAP plant, Ukraine, letter @25'850₴
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @1'095$
· sunflower meal DAP border of Ukraine, Jan @244$

- Ukraine
· As of 31.10, late crops have been harvested in Ukraine: sunflower - 9.59 million tons (from 94% of the area), soybeans - 5.72 million tons (from 95% of the area), corn - 18.29 million tons (from 76% of the area).
· Exports from Ukraine of cereals, oilseeds and their products in October amounted to: corn - 1 916 thousand tons, wheat - 1 642 thousand tons, barley - 376.4 thousand tons, soybeans 675 - thousand tons, rape - 476.3 thousand tons, sunflower - 16.2 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 481.2 thousand tons, soybean oil - 43.2 thousand tons, oilcake (soybean and sunflower) - 474.2 thousand tons.
· It is expected that in early December, a new system of minimum export prices for grain and oilseeds should be launched.
- Europe
· From 01.07 to 29.10, corn imports to the EU reached 6.37 million tons, which is 8% more compared to the same period last year. Ukraine's share in total imports is declining due to high competition and now stands at 47.3%. At the beginning of October, this figure was 50%. U.S. and Brazilian shares rose on average 2% to 18.9% and 18.4%, respectively, per month.

- CORN
The European market continues to be saturated with corn from Ukraine, the USA and Brazil, which directly affects prices. Because of this, prices have decreased on average by $ 5-6 per week. Currently, the supply from exporters exceeds European demand. Also, the physical market is affected by a significant decline on MATIF exchanges, where the price has decreased by almost 10 euros per week.
In Ukraine, prices have not undergone significant changes during the week. The grain supply from the farmer is moderate.

- WHEAT
In the European market, wheat prices have decreased. Good supply and low demand put pressure on the market. Also, the physical market is affected by the decline in futures on world exchanges.
In Ukraine, the situation is different. Wheat prices haven't changed much in a week. The food wheat offer remains limited, while feed farmers sell a little of it.
From 01.07 to 30.10, wheat exports from Ukraine amounted to about 7.6 million tons, which is almost 39% more than was exported last year for the same period.

- SUNFLOWER
Prices for sunflower in Ukraine this week continued to grow. Demand from refineries remains high, but the farmer still offers little, despite the fact that almost the entire crop is harvested. Manufacturers do not want to sell sunflower, especially with a high oil content, waiting for an even higher price. Sunflower oil increased in price in Odessa ports on average by 15-20$ per week.

- SOYA
Demand in the EU remains high, but prices have not undergone significant changes due to high supply from North and South America, as well as from Ukraine. Stable prices for soybeans in the domestic market contribute to the build-up of domestic processing.
In Ukrainian ports, soybeans prices this week have made a slight increase due to increased demand. There are not many offers from farmers. The bulk of the harvest of the farmer is kept waiting for even greater growth.

Nov 01 - Russia’s tacit grain export curbs cause market confusion
Russia's measures to curb grain exports are causing confusion in international markets as the absence of clear government instructions creates loopholes and potential friction with key buyers, traders said. Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, has attempted to limit grain supplies to global markets to prevent a price spike at home, as President Vladimir Putin seeks to combat inflation partly fuelled by military spending. 

Nov 01 - EU lowers most of its 2024 grain crop estimates
The European Commission on Thursday lowered virtually all its estimates for this year's grain crops in the European Union, which would lead to much tighter stocks at the end of the 2024/25 season in the 27-member bloc. In supply and demand data, the Commission put this year's production of common wheat, or soft wheat, in the EU at 112.6 million metric tons, down two million from a month ago and 10% below the volume produced last year.

Oct 31 - Bunge profit tops estimates on grain, oilseed volumes; 2024 outlook intact
Bunge exceeded Wall Street expectations for third-quarter profit on Wednesday as large global harvests provided the grain trader and processor enough volumes of soy, corn and other crops to blunt a hit from lower margins. The global grains merchant had expected a profit lift from a spike in crop sales by U.S. farmers, who are harvesting a record soybean crop and their second-largest corn crop ever. 

Oct 31 - US detects H5N1 bird flu in a pig for the first time
H5N1 bird flu was confirmed in a pig on a backyard farm in Oregon, the first detection of the virus in swine in the country, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Wednesday. Pigs represent a particular concern for the spread of bird flu because they can become co-infected with bird and human viruses, which could swap genes to form a new, more dangerous virus that can more easily infect humans.

Oct 30 - Ukraine winter grain sowing 90% complete, ministry says
Ukrainian farmers had sown 4.68 million hectares of winter grains for the 2025 harvest as of Oct. 28, or 90.2% of the expected area of 5.19 million hectares, the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday. It said the area included 4.13 million hectares of winter wheat, or 92.2% of the projected area. 

Oct 30 - Brazil farmers, government slam Danone for cutting out Brazilian soy
Brazilian soybean producers on Tuesday said there is good reason for products of Danone to be boycotted after the French dairy giant said it would stop sourcing soy from Brazil, while the Brazilian government criticized "unreasonable" moves by European companies. Danone's finance chief told Reuters last week that the company was instead buying soybeans from countries in Asia, ahead of a European Union rule requiring companies to prove they are not sourcing from deforested land.

Oct 29 - US soy harvest 89% complete, fastest since 2010; corn 81% done
U.S. farmers have been harvesting the record-large 2024 soybean crop and the near-record corn crop at the fastest pace in over a decade, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report showed on Monday. The rapid harvest has swelled already-ample supplies and strained storage capacity in spots around the U.S. Midwest this autumn, and prices for both crops were hovering near four-year lows. 

Oct 29 - US winter wheat health among worst-ever, stumping analysts -Braun
The U.S. winter wheat crop is in much worse shape than industry participants thought, coming as the world’s former breadbasket attempts to claw back export share on the global market. Drought has intensified since mid-year across the United States, but a break could be coming as ample rains are slated for the central portion of the country over the next several days.

Oct 28 - France's Danone cuts out Brazilian soy ahead of tough new EU rules
French dairy giant Danone has stopped sourcing soy from Brazil and now buys from countries in Asia, its finance chief told Reuters, ahead of a European Union rule requiring companies to prove they are not sourcing from deforested land. Companies from Nestle to Unilever have been gearing up in recent years to meet the new regulation before they face potential fines of up to 20% of turnover. 

Oct 28 - Strategie Grains cuts EU sunflower crop estimate again on bad weather
Strategie Grains has again lowered its forecast for this year's sunflower seed harvest in the European Union, mainly due to rain disruption to the French harvest and dire results in Romania, the consultancy said on Friday. In an oilseed crop report, it kept unchanged its estimate of this year's EU rapeseed harvest, ending a run of five successive monthly downgrades, and said early growing conditions for the next crop were mostly favourable.

Oct 28 - US corn export sales post multiyear highs, even without China - Braun
U.S. exporters last week sold unusually large volumes of corn that previously were possible only when China was active in the market. But China was absent this time around, and its import intentions remain unclear for now.

Oct 26 - Weekly USA Grain and Protein Report ( Wayne Bacon )

- US corn prices moved a little higher this week, up by about USD 5 m/t while soybean prices also were up – this time by about USD 6 m/t. USA soymeal prices were down on the week with some positions down by as much as USD 10 m/t. USA wheat prices didn’t change too much -- depending on the wheat type prices were down by USD 2 to 4 m/t.

- US corn futures had been higher most of the week but slipped on Friday as the short rally seemed to come to an end. US corn export numbers continue to be very good and US corn is the most competitive in the export market --- not just price competitive but also logistics competitive. US corn can be delivered while Ukraine corn is facing port problems following increased Russian bombing.

- Trade reports say that soybeans had a weak Friday for futures due to harvest pressure but add that they don’t look all that much like moving lower. No one seems to have a good reason for the weakness in soymeal futures prices during the week – perhaps just profit taking.

- USA wheat prices seem to be following world prices quite closely --- at least the price direction as European wheat prices slipped little lower on the week. There doesn’t seem to be much reason for a major change in wheat prices in the short run – some trade reports say that US wheat prices could just drift lower for now.

Oct 25 - Argentina weather outlook positive for soy and corn planting, meteorologist says
Recent rainfall over Argentina's agricultural heartland will likely continue into November, allowing for the normal planting of soybeans and corn, a leading meteorologist told Reuters on Thursday. The expectation of healthy rainfall follows significant precipitation in recent weeks that reversed an earlier dry spell over the key farming area, home to much of the South American nation's grains output.  

Oct 25 - China heads for record 2024 grain harvest of 700 mln T
China's grain output is set to exceed a record 700 million metric tons this year, a key agriculture ministry official said, calling for continued efforts to ensure stable supply. That figure is 0.7% higher than the 2023 harvest of 695.41 million tons, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

Oct 25 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market Report (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @200$->198$
· wheat 11pro DAP mon. Italy, letter @239€
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @382$
· sunflower DAP plant, Ukraine, letter @25'200₴

- Ukraine
· As of 24.10, late crops have been harvested in Ukraine: sunflower - 9.53 million tons (from 94% of the area), soybeans - 5.62 million tons (from 93% of the area), corn - 15.4 million tons (from 67% of the area).
· Exports from Ukraine of grain, oilseeds and their processing products in the period from 1 to 23 October amounted to: corn - 1 342 thousand tons, wheat - 1 341 thousand tons, barley - 361.4 thousand tons, soybeans 441.7 - thousand tons, rape - 421.1 thousand tons, sunflower - 15.9 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 335 thousand tons, soybean oil - 32.3 thousand tons, cake (soybean and sunflower) - 334.7 thousand tons.
- Europe
· Ukrainian corn exports to the EU countries are declining this season. Ukraine's share in total imports of last season was 68-70%, this year it is still at 47%. Competition from the USA and Brazil is only increasing and does not allow the Ukrainian manufacturer to find easy markets.
· Imports of Ukrainian wheat to the EU, on the contrary, are growing. Last season, Ukraine's share was about 70%, currently it is 72%.

- CORN
In the European market, corn prices continue to decline as the supply of North American and South American grain increases.
Ukraine continues to increase the rate of corn exports. In the period from October 1 to October 23, about 1,342 thousand tons of corn were exported, which is 75% more compared to the same period in September.
The largest importers of corn during this period were: Italy - 385.6 thousand tons, Spain - 246.1 thousand tons and Turkey - 245.4 thousand tons.
Prices in the ports of Ukraine this week continued to decline, but it was no longer so significant than a week ago. The supply of grain from the farmers has increased.

- WHEAT
Sowing of winter wheat in Ukraine is being promoted at a good pace. As of 21.10, 3.84 million hectares were sown, which is 86% of the total sowing forecast.
Prices in Ukrainian wheat ports this week stabilized and even strengthened. The demand for grain has increased, and the supply from farmers remains limited.

- SUNFLOWER
In Ukraine, the market remains on the buyer's side. The high demand for sunflower from processing plants and low supply of oilseeds from the farmer stimulates prices to growth. Farmers are not in a hurry to sell large quantities of sunflower. In addition, the price increase affects the rise in price of sunflower oil in the world and directly in Ukraine. During the week, the price of sunflower oil in the ports of Odessa has increased by at least $ 20.

- SOYA
The increase in demand for soybeans supports world prices to a small increase. However, we should not forget about the active harvest in the United States and the high offer from Brazil, which directly affects the market. In the Ukrainian market, prices in ports have not changed much compared to the previous week.

Oct 25 - Chickpea price plummets as Indian demand underwhelms (Grain Central)

PRICES for chickpeas delivered to Queensland sites have fallen by up to $250 per tonne in response to harvest pressure, and India’s continued absence from the market.

This is despite it removing its tariff on chickpeas, which was expected to prompt a fast and furious shipping program bookended by the start of the Qld harvest and the closure of the tariff-free period on 31 March 2025.

Trade sources say Pakistan has emerged as the destination for the first two new-crop cargoes shipped this month from Qld, and that prices have now fallen to a level expected to attract buying interest from India and Bangladesh, as well as Pakistan.
“I haven’t heard of any bulk vessels going into India, but Pakistan is very vocal; they’ve got seven vessels going from September to January,” one trader said.

Up-country depots in Qld are currently bidding on average around $710-$735/t for chickpeas, down from more than $1000/t early last month.

Trade sources say the price drop has occurred in response to volume selling from growers at higher rates.

With around one third of the Australian crop forecast at 1.5-1.7 million tonnes now harvested, the trade is now confident that volume to supply prompt shipment cargoes is available.

This has taken the premium related to concerns about widespread rain in the early part of harvest out of the market, and allowed it to fall to a level many are expecting will buy it volume demand from south Asia.
“The market’s safer once it’s at a level that’s palatable for a buyer,” the trade source said.

While India was expected to book up all available new-crop chickpeas, Pakistan, which has reshaped itself as a bulk rather than boxed market in recent years, has been the volume buyer thus far.
“Some people started to offer short into Pakistan,” a trader said.

That business commenced when growers were being offered A$1000/t, and the Pakistan market was US$810-$820/t cfr, which has now fallen to around US$720/t.

Oct 24 - Argentina rains 'turn game around' for grains after drought, exchange says
Strong rains this week in Argentina have given a huge boost to the farming sector after a tough period of drought, "turning the game around" for corn and wheat farmers who had been facing deep losses, the Rosario grains exchange said on Wednesday. The exchange said in a report that between 30 and 90 millimeters of rain fell in the last 24 hours in much of the agricultural core region of Argentina, the world's third largest corn exporter and a key global supplier of wheat. 

Oct 24 - Brazil sugar stockpiles revised to record low, says trader Wilmar
Sugar stocks in Brazil at the start of the current crop in April were at the lowest level on record at 900,000 metric tons, Singapore-based commodities trader Wilmar WLIL.SI said on Wednesday, citing numbers from Brazilian industry group Unica. Wilmar's Head of Research Karim Salamon said Unica published a revision of its stock numbers, cutting Brazil's Centre-South sugar stocks at the end of March, just before the start of the current crop, to 1.9 million tons from 4.3 million tons estimated previously.

Oct 23 - US exporters race to ship soybeans as looming election stokes tariff worries
U.S. soybean export premiums are at their highest in 14 months, as grain merchants race to ship out a record-large U.S. harvest ahead of the U.S. presidential election and fears of renewed trade tensions with top importer China, traders and analysts said. Nearly 2.5 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans were inspected for export last week, including almost 1.7 million tons bound for China, the most in a year, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data released on Monday. 

Oct 23 - India scraps parboiled rice export tax to boost shipments
India scrapped the export tax on parboiled rice, the government said in an official order on Tuesday, as inventories in the world's biggest exporter of the grain surged and the country is set to produce a bumper crop after copious monsoon rains. Last month, India reduced the duty to 10% from 20% to boost exports, and gave the go ahead for exports of non-basmati white rice to resume.

Oct 23 - Tunisia buys about 125,000 T soft wheat in tender, traders say
Tunisia's state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 125,000 metric tons of soft wheat in an international tender on Tuesday, European traders said. The lowest price was estimated to be $262.88 a ton cost and freight (c&f) for two 25,000 ton consignments sold by Bulgarian trading house Buildcom, traders said.

Oct 23 - Indian origin permitted in Indonesia’s 340,000 T rice tender
Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog has told traders that Indian supplies can be offered in its new international tender to buy 340,000 metric tons of rice and the offer deadline is postponed by one day, European traders said on Tuesday. Traders said an initial announcement from Bulog said the rice could be sourced only from Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam or Pakistan.

 

Oct 22 - US soybean harvest is 81% complete, fastest pace since 2010, USDA says
The U.S. soybean harvest was 81% complete as of Sunday, the fastest pace seen since 2010, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report released on Monday afternoon. The week's soy harvest, which was in line with trade expectations, is also ahead of the five-year average of 67% as weeks of warm, dry weather have allowed crops in the central United States to mature rapidly and enabled combines to continue rolling.  

Oct 22 - Russian wheat export prices rise, record shipments expected in Oct
Russian wheat export prices rose last week, in line with the new indicative prices for Russian wheat published for the first time, while export volumes remain high, with analysts expecting record shipments in October. The price of 12.5% protein Russian new crop wheat scheduled free-on-board (FOB) for delivery in November was $234 per metric ton at the end of last week, up $4, according to Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

Oct 21 - China September soy imports from US up 13-fold Y/Y
China's soybean imports from the United States surged 13-fold in September from a year earlier, government data showed on Sunday, rising for the sixth consecutive month. The world's largest soybean buyer imported 1.71 million metric tons of soybeans from the United States last month, up from 132,680 tons a year ago, according to the General Administration of Customs.  

Oct 21 - Funds rejuvenate CBOT corn, soy bearishness after short covering streak -Braun
Each week since late August, speculators covered short positions across U.S. grains and oilseeds as weather and geopolitical risks increased supply uncertainties worldwide. But funds snapped that stretch of short covering in the week ended Oct. 15, adding new gross short positions in CBOT corn, soybean meal and soybeans. That flipped overall grain and oilseed sentiment back to bearish after the establishment of a net long in the prior week, the first in 13 months. 

Oct 18 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market Report (SPIKE BROKERS)Sold a week· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @200$->197$· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @18'600₴->18'300₴· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @390$->385$· soybean NE-GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @476$· sunflower DAP plant, Ukraine, Oct-list @25'000₴->25'250₴· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @1'060$- Ukraine· USDA in its October report reduced the forecast for corn production in Ukraine by the September report by 1 million tons to 26.2 million tons, soybeans by 0.2 million tons to 6.6 million tons. In turn, the experts raised the expectations of wheat production by 0.6 million tons to 22.9 million tons.· As of 17.10, late crops have been harvested in Ukraine: sunflower - 9.28 million tons (from 91% of the area), soybeans - 5.187 million tons (from 88% of the area), corn - 13.187 million tons (from 59% of the area).· Exports from Ukraine of grain, oilseeds and their processing products for 15 days of October amounted to: corn - 861 thousand tons, wheat - 921 thousand tons, barley - 307 thousand tons, soybeans - 308 thousand tons, rape - 292 thousand tons, sunflower - 16 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 265 thousand tons, soybean oil - 18 thousand tons, cake - 188 thousand tons.- Europe· During the period from 01.07 to 14.10, corn imports to the EU reached 5.7 million tons, which is 6% more compared to the same period last year. Ukraine's share in total imports was 48.7% (compared to 42.3% last year). The USA has increased exports to the EU more than 10 times and its share is currently 18.7%. The total share of Brazilian and American corn is 35.6%.- CORNWorld prices for corn this week decreased. This was due to the rapid pace of gathering grain crops in the United States and the improvement of weather conditions in Brazil, which should accelerate the pace of sowing corn.Prices for corn in Ukraine this week decreased almost peak levels of autumn. This was due to an increase in market supply due to high rates of corn collection and lower prices for grain in the world.- WHEATAs of 14.10, 3,349 thousand hectares of winter wheat were sown in Ukraine, which is 75% of the total sowing forecast.Prices for feed wheat in the direction of the ports of the Danube and the Great Water decreased. In turn, food wheat prices for the most part remained unchanged.Wheat exports for the first half of October decreased to 1.08 million tons, which is 9.5% less than in the same period in September.- SUNFLOWERSunflower prices continue to rise due to high demand from processing plants and low supply from producers. Farmers are not in a hurry to sell large volumes of oilseeds, waiting for even higher prices. Processing plants are ready to pay for sunflower with the base content of oil 46% - 520-525$ without VAT with delivery, depending on the tonnage. That's at least $10 more compared to last week's price. Sunflower oil in the ports of Odessa for a week increased by about $ 40 compared to the prices of last week.- SOYAThe rapid pace of soybeans harvesting in the USA and Ukraine, as well as the high offer of Brazilian soybeans, continues to press on the world market. In Ukraine, domestic prices are also under pressure and reduced.

Oct 18 - IGC maintains global wheat, corn production forecasts
The International Grains Council maintained its forecasts for 2024/25 global wheat and corn crops in a monthly update issued on Thursday. The inter-governmental body kept its global wheat production forecast at 798 million metric tons, with an improved outlook for Kazakhstan offset by downward revisions for Australia and Argentina. 

Oct 18 - Rains may have come too late for Brazil's coffee
Rain is falling across the coffee growing regions of top producer Brazil after one of the driest periods on record, but it may be too late for trees to fully recover before the new crop is harvested, say farmers and experts. Coffee prices have repeatedly hit multi-year peaks over the past two years, driving up the cost to consumers worldwide and forcing some roasters to change blends and lower the quality of the coffee they sell.

Oct 17 - High foreign demand pushes Ukrainian wheat prices up, producers say
High demand from Asian importers and a limited supply of grain on world markets has pushed Ukrainian domestic and export wheat prices up, producers said on Wednesday. Ukraine is a major global wheat grower and exporter but the government has limited its wheat exports in the growing season from July 2024 to June 2025 amid high demand from exporters. 

Oct 17 - Brazilian corn heads up the latest USDA, Conab forecast disparity: Braun
Controversy over Brazil’s crop estimates commanded the market’s attention earlier this year as the U.S. Department of Agriculture and its Brazilian counterpart established drastically different views on the corn and soybean harvests. These 2023-24 crop disparities were unusually large and involved volumes significant enough to impact global trade given that Brazil is the leading soy exporter and No. 2 in corn.

Oct 16 - NOPA September US soybean crush up sharply to 177.320 mln bushels
The U.S. soybean crush topped all trade estimates in September in a strong rebound from a near-three-year low the previous month, while soyoil stocks fell to the lowest point in almost a decade, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Tuesday. NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 177.320 million bushels of the oilseed last month, a record amount for September.

Oct 16 - France cuts wheat and barley crop estimates, raises maize forecast
France's farm ministry on Tuesday further cut its estimates for the country's rain-hit soft wheat and barley crops, while raising its outlook for the maize harvest that is getting underway. Repeated heavy rain in France, the European Union's largest grain producer, reduced planting and hampered development of wheat and barley, leading forecasters to predict a plunge in wheat exports this season.

Oct 16 - Dry Freight Markets
Russia’s Grain Exporters Union starts publishing indicative prices for wheat exports
Russia’s Grain Exporters Union began publishing indicative export prices for Russian wheat on Tuesday, following discussions on exports during a meeting between agriculture ministry officials and leading exporters last week. The union said the indicative export price for wheat with 12.5% protein content on a free-on-board basis from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk was $240 per metric ton for October, $245 for November and $250 for December.

Oct 16 - Turkey relaxes wheat import rules as ban due to expire, millers say
Turkey, the world's largest flour exporter, has relaxed its wheat import rules ahead of the scheduled expiry of a ban at midnight on Tuesday, according to the millers' association. In June, Turkey banned wheat imports until Oct. 15 to protect farmers from low prices, promote domestic procurement of grains by the Turkish state grain board and create a favourable market for farmers.

Oct 15 - NOPA September US soybean crush seen up, at 170.331 million bushels
The U.S. soybean crush likely rebounded in September from a near-three-year low the prior month while soyoil stocks thinned to the lowest in almost a decade, analysts said ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Tuesday. NOPA members, who handle about 95% of all U.S. processed soybeans, were estimated to have crushed 170.331 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from 10 analysts surveyed by Reuters. 

Oct 15 - Train derailment creates latest supply chain hiccup for US-Mexico grain exports
Mexican rail consortium Ferromex and U.S. railroad company Union Pacific Corp said they have stopped issuing permits for some grain rail shipments moving through Eagle Pass, Texas, after a recent train derailment in Mexico closed the track. The halt is a temporary measure until rail traffic gets cleared after the track reopened, Ferromex told Reuters in a statement Monday, adding that total volume of grain movement between Union Pacific and Ferromex will not be affected.

Oct 14 - French maize harvest falls further behind as wet weather persists
France's maize harvest fell further behind the usual pace last week, data showed on Friday, and torrential rain this week may exacerbate soggy conditions that have hindered field work in the European Union's biggest grain producer. Farmers had harvested 6% of this year's grain maize crop by Oct. 7, up from 2% a week earlier but well below year-earlier progress of 44% and an average 40% for the same week in the past five years, farm office FranceAgriMer said in a cereal report. 

Oct 14 - Ukraine 2024/25 grain exports to fall to 40 mln T due to smaller crop, official says
Ukraine's 2024/25 grain exports are likely to decrease to around 40 million metric tons from almost 51 million tons in 2023/24 due to a smaller harvest, the first deputy agriculture minister Taras Vysotskiy said on Friday. "The harvest (of 2024) due to difficult weather conditions is a bit smaller and there are no carryover stocks from previous periods and exports will be around 40 million tons," Vysotskiy told national television.

Oct 11 - Ukrainian Agri Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct-letter @205$->202$->201$
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct-list @206$
· soybean GMO DAP mon. Italy, yellow-leaf (car) @410€
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @410$->404$
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @1'025$

- Ukraine
· As of 10.10, late crops have been harvested in Ukraine: sunflower - 8.8 million tons (from 87% of the area), soybeans - 4.8 million tons (from 80% of the area), corn - 10.5 million tons (from 48% of the area).
- World
· The devaluation of the real estate against the US dollar increases the income of farmers and stimulates the export of agricultural products from Brazil.
· Expectations for soybeans in the USDA 11.10 report: U.S. bean harvest is projected at 53.1 BPA, U.S. production at 4.579 billion bushels, and U.S. surplus stocks are 549 million bushels. World reserves remain unchanged.
· Expectations for corn in USDA report 11.10: US maize yields are projected at 183.4 BPA, US corn production at 15.155 billion bushels. The final U.S. corn stockpiles are expected to be 1.962 billion bushels, down from 2.057 billion in September. Global final reserves were estimated at 306.83 million tons, down from 308.35 million in September.
· Expectations for wheat in USDA report 11.10: U.S. end wheat stocks at 819 million bushels, up from 828 million in September, and world final stocks at 256.14 million tons, down from 257.22 million in September. The market does not expect significant surprises from USDA.

- CORN
Corn prices approached the peak levels of the autumn period. 10.5 million tons of corn have already been harvested in Ukraine.
Turkey covered more than half of its import quota of 1 million tons by the end of the calendar year. Ukraine should export more than 9 million tons of corn by the end of 2024, which is far higher than Turkey's demand for 1 million tons. Brazilian corn is actively offered to European markets at prices that are 15$ lower than the prices of Ukrainian corn. The share of corn from the United States in the total import of Europe increased by 10 times compared to last year's figure.
Farmers actively offered corn at the level of 200$+ CPT port. Against the background of shelling of the port infrastructure in Ukraine from the terrorist country, interruptions began with the reception of goods in some ports, and traders are reviewing their trade appetites and risks.

- WHEAT
Feed wheat prices are trading at a minimum discount of $2-4 compared to food wheat. Buyers paid for forage wheat 204-206$ with delivery to the ports of Greater Odessa. The demand for food wheat in the direction of ports is very limited. Exporters have amassed significant stocks of food wheat in anticipation of rising prices being postponed.

- SUNFLOWER
Sunflower is harvested on an area of 87% with a total yield of 8.8 million tons. Sunflower prices continued to rise against the backdrop of strengthening oil prices in the international market. Sunflower oil prices rose by $50 compared to last week, which raised the price of sunflower to $22. With delivery to the plants, sunflower was traded for $ 510 without VAT at a base oil content of 46%.

- SOYA
Prices for soybeans remain under pressure. The active offer of Brazilian soybeans on the world market significantly limits the possibilities for price growth. Prices for all areas remained unchanged, and for some even decreased to 5$.

Oct 11 - Iraq set to pay high price for bumper wheat harvest
A bumper harvest and a hefty grain surplus in Iraq, typically one of the Middle East's biggest wheat importers, has left the government with the prospect of a net loss of nearly half a billion dollars, according to Reuters calculations. The 1.5 million metric ton wheat surplus, helped by better-than-expected rains but above all by government subsidies, is excellent news for farmers. 

Oct 11 - Russia announces better-than-expected grain, wheat harvest estimates
Russia lowered its final grain and wheat crop estimates on Thursday but the figures were higher than analysts had expected, setting the stage for this season's export forecasts ahead of a key meeting with exporters on Oct. 11. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying Russia will harvest 130 million tons of grain, down from an earlier forecast of 132 million tons, and 83 million tons of wheat, down from 84-86 million tons.

Oct 10 - Harsh weather curbs global wheat output, buoys prices
Harsh weather is reducing wheat production in major global exporters, cutting inventories that have already been projected to hit nine-year lows, while fuelling a sudden surge in prices. Dryness afflicting suppliers from Russia, the world's biggest, to Argentina is making food production vulnerable as recent Russian attacks on grain ships in the Black Sea rekindles concerns about the war limiting supplies.

Oct 10 - Algeria bars France from wheat import tender as relations sour, sources say
Algeria excluded French companies from a wheat import tender this week and required that participating firms did not offer French-origin wheat, in apparent fallout from renewed diplomatic tensions between Algiers and Paris, trading sources said. The move, echoing a dispute three years ago that led to France being sidelined from its former colony's wheat tenders for months, may reinforce the recent dominance of Black Sea supplies, led by Russian wheat, in Algeria's massive import market.

Oct 10 - More Kazakh agricultural exporters complain of issues with transit to Russia
Some Kazakh rice and corn exporters are unable to ship their products to Russia, Kazakhstan's Grain Union said on Wednesday, in what appeared to be an expansion of a Russian block on grain transit from Kazakhstan after Moscow accused Astana of breaching plant health regulations. Russia is a key transit country for major Kazakh exports such as oil and uranium, and trade tensions could make market players nervous about the steady supply of those commodities.

Oct 09 - Algeria buys about 500,000 T wheat in tender, traders say
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has purchased about 500,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender that closed on Tuesday, European traders said. This was up from initial trader estimates of 360,000 to 390,000 tons.

Oct 09 - EU 2024/25 soft wheat exports down 29% by Oct 6, data still incomplete
Soft wheat exports from the European Union since the start of the 2024/25 season in July had reached 6.35 million metric tons by Oct. 6, down 29% from 8.9 million tons a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. EU barley exports totalled 1.53 million tons, down 36% from 2.39 million tons in the corresponding period for 2023/24.

Oct 09 - Higher biodiesel mandates in Indonesia to curb palm oil supplies, analyst says
Implementation of higher biodiesel mandates in Indonesia, the world's biggest palm oil producer, is likely to tighten supplies of the vegetable oil, a leading industry analyst said on Tuesday. Indonesia currently has a mandatory 35% blend of palm oil-based fuel in biodiesel and is seeking to ramp up to biodiesel containing 40% palm oil to cut its energy imports. 

Oct 09 - Scant rain in Argentina not to reverse problems facing wheat, exchange says
Recent rainfall over parts of Argentina's core farmland has not been enough for farmers to erase losses to many wheat fields and move forward with this season's corn planting, the Rosario grains exchange said on Tuesday. The agricultural heartland of the South American nation, a major world grains supplier, received 2 to 10 millimeters of rain in the last 24 hours, the national weather service said.

Oct 08 - Saudi Arabia buys 307,000 tons of wheat in tender, GFSA says
Saudi Arabia has purchased 307,000 metric tons of wheat in a tender for arrival between December and January, the GFSA state buying agency said on Monday. The tender sought hard wheat with 12.5% protein, with the purchase was slightly above the 295,000 tons sought.

Oct 08 - US soy harvest 47% complete, corn 30% done, USDA data shows
The U.S. soybean harvest was 47% complete by Sunday and the corn harvest was 30% finished, data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed on Monday, with both crops ahead of average, while soybean condition ratings declined. The USDA rated 63% of the U.S. soybean crop as good to excellent, down 1 percentage point from last week, while corn ratings were unchanged at 64% good-to-excellent, both in line with the average estimates in a Reuters poll of 12 analysts. 

Oct 08 - Russia says grain harvest hit by Ukraine war, bad weather
Russia's grain harvest will be hit by the impact of Ukraine's attacks on grain-producing regions close to the border and by bad weather in many other regions, the RIA news agency cited Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut as saying on Monday. Russia, the world's top wheat exporter, has officially forecast this year's grain harvest at 132 million metric tons, an 11% drop from 148 million tons in 2023 and a 16% drop from a record 158 million tons in 2022.

Oct 07 - ADM to idle Iowa soy facility during record US harvest
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) Co is idling its only soybean processing plant in Iowa for weeks in the thick of a record U.S. harvest, the grain merchant told Reuters, tightening supplies of soymeal fed to livestock. The temporary closure eliminates a market for farmers to sell their soy as low crop prices slash incomes and removes a source of livestock feed for buyers in the U.S. and overseas.  

Oct 07 - Funds slash bearish Chicago corn bets to 14-month lows: Braun
In the final week of September, speculators staged a hefty round of short covering in Chicago-traded corn and in the soybean complex, potentially reducing risk ahead of an often-unpredictable U.S. government report. CBOT corn, soybean and soybean product futures have all worked their way off recent multi-year lows, as demand recovery has also coincided with some drought-related crop concerns in major suppliers.

Oct 05 - EU’s deforestation program 12-month additional time to phase in the system.

Soybeans and soymeal had a down week this week with US soybean prices slipping by about USD 10 m/t with soymeal down by close to USD 15 m/t.
Lower prices for soybeans/meal were said to be related to the extension in the EU’s deforestation program – a program that had been planned for the end of December 2024 but has now moved to end December 2025. Some producers and suppliers are breathing easier while others are complaining that they made major investments in order to meet the deforestation regulations, money which now could be wasted.

Oct 04 - EUDR's Commission strengthens support for EU Deforestation Regulation implementation and proposes extra 12 months of phasing-in time, responding to calls by global partners

The Commission is today publishing additional guidance documents and a stronger international cooperation framework to support global stakeholders, Member States and third countries in their preparations for the implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation. Given feedback received from international partners about their state of preparations, the Commission also proposes to give concerned parties additional time to prepare. If approved by the European Parliament and the Council, it would make the law applicable on 30 December 2025 for large companies and 30 June 2026 for micro- and small enterprises. Since all the implementation tools are technically ready, the extra 12 months can serve as a phasing-in period to ensure proper and effective implementation.

The guidance presented today will provide additional clarity to companies and enforcing authorities to facilitate the application of the rules, coming on top of the Commission's continuous support for stakeholders since the law's adoption. At the same time, the Commission recognises that three months ahead of the intended implementation date, several global partners have repeatedly expressed concerns about their state of preparedness, most recently during the United Nations General Assembly week in New York. Moreover, the state of preparations amongst stakeholders in Europe is also uneven. While many expect to be ready in time, thanks to intensive preparations, others have expressed concerns.

Given the EUDR's novel character, the swift calendar, and the variety of international stakeholders involved, the Commission considers that a 12-month additional time to phase in the system is a balanced solution to support operators around the world in securing a smooth implementation from the start. With this step, the Commission aims to provide certainty about the way forward and to ensure the success of the EUDR, which is paramount to address the EU's contribution to the pressing global issue of deforestation. The extension proposal in no way puts into question the objectives or the substance of the law, as agreed by the EU co-legislators.

- Additional guidance for effective and pragmatic implementation

The guidance documents presented today make good on the Commission's commitment to provide a reference of the recent collaborative efforts, involving stakeholders and competent authorities, to help ensure uniform interpretation of the law.

Key areas covered include details on the functionalities of the Information System, updates on penalties, and clarifications on critical definitions such as ‘forest degradation', ‘operator' in the scope of the law, and ‘placing on the market'. There is also further guidance on traceability obligations.

The guidance is divided into 11 chapters covering a diverse range of issues such as legality requirements, timeframe of application, agricultural use, and clarifications on the product scope. All of these are supported by tangible scenarios. In addition, the latest FAQ, also published today, features over 40 new additional answers to address questions raised by a diverse range of stakeholders from around the world.

Micro- and small companies benefit from a lighter regime, which is also detailed on a new dedicated webpage.

Information for the general public on the Commission website has also been updated and reorganised for easier understanding by all.

- Transparent country benchmarking and stepped up cooperation with international partners

The Commission is publishing today the principles of the methodology it will apply to the EUDR benchmarking exercise, serving to classify countries as low, standard, or high risk, aiming to facilitate operators' due diligence processes and enable competent authorities to effectively monitor and enforce compliance.

Following the methodology applied, a large majority of countries worldwide will be classified as ‘low risk'. This will give the opportunity to focus collective efforts where deforestation challenges are more acute.

To help ensure smooth implementation worldwide, the Commission and the European External Action Service are presenting a strategic framework for international cooperation engagement on the EU Deforestation Regulation. It identifies five priority areas of action such as support to smallholders, eight key principles such as a human rights-centred approach, and several implementation tools including dialogue and financing. This comprehensive framework will aim to promote a just and inclusive transition to deforestation-free agricultural supply chains leaving no one behind. While the EU will step up dialogue and support even further, the partnership's success will also rest on EU partners' commitment to deliver on global targets to halt deforestation.

- Completion of the dedicated IT system

The Information System where businesses will register their due diligence statements is ready to start accepting registrations in early November and for full operation in December. Operators and traders will be able to register and submit due diligence statements even before the law's entry into application.

Since the system's pilot testing with 100 companies conducted in January, the Commission put in place several additional measures, including:

    Creating a single point of contact for IT support for stakeholders
    Development of an interface that allows machine-to-machine connections to the system, without the need for manual data input; more than 250 private stakeholders are developing this feature on their side
    Support to test the geolocation files of stakeholders and providing feedback
    Videos and detailed multilingual user instructions about the system
    Training for interested stakeholders: the first session took place in Brussels on 25 September, and online training will take place from second half of October.

- Next steps

With the actions announced today, the Commission considers that the necessary conditions for smooth implementation will be fulfilled:

    Today's additional guidance documents will complete the wealth of support available to producers, trading organisations and partner countries in their preparations to implement the regulation, while the Commission remains committed to continue dialogue and engagement as necessary.
    Companies and other stakeholders are invited to complete their connections, testing and training for the use of the IT System.
    The Commission is intensifying dialogues with most concerned countries, which will feed into the speedy finalisation of the country benchmarking system through a proposed Implementing Act by 30 June 2025.
    The Commission invites the European Parliament and the Council to adopt the proposal for an extended implementation period by the end of the year.

Oct 04 - Ukrainian Agri Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @193$->196$
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @200$
· soybean GMO DAP mon. Italy, yellow-leaf (car) @402€->405€
· Soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @18'800₴ incl. VAT
· sunflower DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @23'000₴ incl. VAT

- Ukraine
· As of 03.10, late crops have been harvested in Ukraine: sunflower - 8 million tons (from 79% of the area), soybeans - 4.2 million tons (from 74% of the area), corn - 7.7 million tons (from 37% of the area).
· Exports from Ukraine of grain, oilseeds and their processing products for September amounted to: corn - 526 thousand tons, wheat - 2 313 thousand tons, barley - 283 thousand tons, soybeans - 246 thousand tons, rape - 705 thousand tons, sunflower - 563 tons, sunflower oil - 348 thousand tons, soybean oil - 15 thousand tons, cake - 233 thousand tons.

- CORN
The reduction in the rate of corn exports confirms the lack of transitional residues in the country. Exports for the second consecutive month decreased to 526 thousand tons of corn in September, which is the lowest monthly indicator since March 2022. Prices continue to rise against the background of active import demand from buyers from Turkey and the European market. The share of imports of Ukrainian corn to Turkey is expected to increase due to a decrease in the export potential of corn with pF. Turkish buyers actively buy corn to cover their annual needs, which is 2 million tons.

- WHEAT
The wheat market is experiencing a paradoxical moment in equalizing the price of food wheat not only with fodder wheat, but also with corn. The strong export demand for feed wheat from Europe has forced the price of feed wheat to rise almost to the food level. In the structure of wheat exports in September, the largest share is sending to Spain, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam with volumes of 669 thousand tons, 390 thousand tons, 277 thousand tons and 259 thousand tons, respectively.
Processing plants in the domestic market of Ukraine actively buy quality food wheat and pay a premium of up to 6$ compared to export prices. Domestic demand for food wheat is up to 4 million tons. The total exports of wheat in 2024 at the end of September amounted to 6 million tons against 16 million tons, agreed by a memorandum between exporters and the ministry.

- SUNFLOWER
The restrained offer from farmers and the rise in prices of sunflower and sunflower oil create instability in the market. Processing enterprises are forced to work at minimal prices to maintain their activities. In the face of such difficulties, some plants decided to switch to soybean processing, which ensures a more stable market and allows you to get a higher margin. The transition to soybean processing becomes an alternative to maintain profitability in the difficult conditions of the sunflower market.

- SOYA
The domestic market of processing actively competes for soybeans, which is confirmed by the growth of the number of processing plants that have already moved to soybean processing since the beginning of October. It is expected that the total volume of soybean processing in Ukraine this year will reach 2 million tons. At the same time, the harvested soybean crop is 4.2 million tons, and the export of the new crop has already reached almost 400 thousand tons.

Oct 04 - Egypt planning for major wheat import savings, sources say
Egypt has developed plans to slash wheat imports and spend less on subsidised bread by adding corn or sorghum as ingredients, five industry sources briefed on the plans told Reuters. The proposals could save the government millions of dollars but face opposition from bakers and millers who could lose out financially and argue that bread quality would suffer.

Oct 04 - Argentina corn planting set to take hit from dry conditions
Dry conditions are likely to impede corn planting efforts in Argentina's main agricultural core over the next seven days, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday. Farmers began planting the 2024/25 corn crop last month in Argentina, the world's third-largest corn exporter, and western and northern portions of Argentina's core farming region have suffered from dry conditions in recent months.

Oct 03 - Egypt's GASC strikes deal on direct monthly wheat supplies, sources say
Egypt's state grains buyer has struck one of its largest ever direct wheat deals for monthly supplies from November to April, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The wheat will be shipped to the General Authority for Supply Commodities with around 510,000 metric tons to be supplied every month sourced from Black Sea origins, and totalling up to 3.12 million tons over the period, one of the sources said.

Oct 03 - Russia's Sovecon cuts 2024/25 wheat export forecast on bad weather
Agricultural consultancy Sovecon cut its 2024/25 Russian wheat export forecast on Wednesday to 47.6 million metric tons from 48.1 million tons due to bad weather affecting the harvest, noting high export volumes at the start of the season. Total grain exports are estimated at 55.4 million metric tons, compared to 56.5 million metric tons earlier, it said. Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter.

Oct 02 - Honduras 2024/25 coffee exports seen up 15% despite EU trade fears
Honduras' coffee exports in the 2024/25 season are seen up 14.5% from the previous period to 5.37 million 60-kg bags, industry leaders said on Tuesday, despite fears that shipments could be hurt by an EU regulation set to take effect at the end of the year. Central America's largest exporter of the bean sees exports boosted by better production this year as harvesting for the new season kicks off, Pedro Mendoza, head of Honduras' coffee organization IHCAFE said. 

Oct 02 - Leading wheat and soybean exporters grapple with historic droughts -Braun
Top grain producing regions of Russia and Brazil experienced one of their driest Septembers on record, just as farmers in both export giants were attempting to sow their crops. This has driven winter wheat planting rates to 11-year lows in Russia, which accounts for as much as a quarter of global wheat exports.

Oct 01 - Europe endures a season to forget (Grain Brokers Australia)

WITH this season’s winter and spring crop harvest across the European Union largely concluded and the summer crop harvest now underway in the bloc’s southern growing regions, the total grain production expectations for the 2024/25 season have continued to decline as final harvested yields are gradually revealed.

This reduction can primarily be attributed to adverse weather conditions, particularly record rainfall in late 2023 and then a wet harvest, which negatively impacted winter crop sowing and plant development across key producing countries such as France, Germany, the Baltic states, and Poland. Dry weather in the Black Sea region also took the shine off mid-season winter crop production optimism in the neighbouring states of Bulgaria and Romania.
Low plantings

According to the European Commission’s latest production estimates released last Friday, total cereal production across this season’s winter, spring and summer cropping programs is projected at 260.9 million tonnes (Mt), down 3.3pc from 269.9Mt last season and 7.2pc lower than the five-year average of 281.1Mt. The total planted area of 49.6 million hectares (Mha) was down from 50.3Mha last season and was one of the smallest this century.

Wheat occupies the most extensive area across the European Union’s 27 member states each season, with final plantings pegged at 22.6 Mha compared to 23.9Mha a season earlier and the five-year average of 23.8Mha. The soft wheat area of 20.4Mha was 6.1pc lower than the 2023 area, but the durum wheat area only fell by 1.1pc season-on-season to 2.1Mha.
Low production

The EC has pegged wheat production at 121.8Mt, down from 132.5Mt in 2023/24 and the five-year average of 134.2Mt, making it one of the worst EU harvests in the past 40 years. The soft wheat component of that total is 114.6Mt, down from 125.5Mt last season and the five-year average of 126.8Mt, while the durum wheat harvest is small in comparison at 7.2Mt, up from 7Mt in 2023 but lower than the five-year average of 7.4Mt.
Mixed weather upends establish trade flow

The European wheat harvest faced significant quality challenges due to the varied and hostile weather conditions experienced across some of the continent’s key growing areas over the harvest period. The unseasonably wet conditions caused delays in harvesting and adversely affected crop development in western Europe, whilst grain fill in parts of central and eastern Europe suffered from a lack of moisture in the latter part of the season.

These wet weather conditions led to significant wheat quality issues, with lower-than-normal protein levels and test weights reported. The French crop was the hardest hit, with the government farm institute FranceAgriMer stating that only 28pc of this year’s crop exceeded the minimum milling quality test weight threshold of 76 kilograms per hectolitre. Kernel weight determines the amount of flour that can be extracted in the manufacturing process, with millers expecting to grind 5-6pc more wheat than usual to produce the equivalent amount of flour.

However, with French milling wheat a highly sought commodity by the global consumer, it is exports that are expected to suffer the most in the 2024/25 marketing year. According to FranceAgriMer, shipments of French wheat outside the EU could plummet by more than 60pc compared to 2023/24 due to the poor quality profile, with other member states such as Germany, Poland and the Baltic states hoping to fill some of the void.

Barley is traditionally the second biggest cereal crop by area in the EU-27 every year. This was again the case in 2024, with a harvested area of 10.4Mha compared to 10.3Mha in 2023 and an average of 10.6Mha across the previous five seasons. Contrary to wheat, the barley output projection has increased year-on-year from 47.5Mt to 50.4Mt but still sits slightly below the five-year average of 51.9Mt.

The main oilseed grown across the EU-27 trading bloc each season is rapeseed. The EC is calling the harvested area 5.8Mha, down 7.3pc from 6.2Mha in 2023 but above the 5.6Mha average since 2019. However, the production fall was far more dramatic, down 12.7pc year-on-year to 17.2Mt. Following big crops in each of the past two years, the 2024 output fell 2.7pc below the five-year mean of 17.7Mt.

On the summer crop front, favourable weather conditions have prevailed in western parts of Europe, but a rainfall deficit and very high temperatures in most of southern-central and eastern Europe have negatively impacted biomass accumulation and shortened the corn grain-filling period. Severe flooding in September due to a weather system known as Storm Boris adversely affected crop development in central European states, in particular Germany. The yield outlook is particularly poor in Bulgaria and Romania, where extremely dry conditions have prevailed since late spring, while the French and Polish output forecasts are higher than in 2023.
Corn struggles

The EU-27’s second biggest cereal crop by production each season is corn. Although the planted area is traditionally less than barley, being the most efficient of the modern cereal grains for conversion of water and carbon dioxide into carbohydrates, the average corn yield is more than 50pc higher. This year’s planted area of 8.8Mha is significantly higher than last year’s 8.4Mha, but it is still slightly lower than the 8.9Mha average since 2019. However, production has suffered, with the European Commission’s September yield forecast coming in 2.7pc lower than the August estimate. This year’s EU-27 harvest is currently expected to total 60.1Mt, down 4.1pc compared to 62.7Mt in 2023 and 7.9pc below the five-year average of 65.3Mt.

As the summer crop harvest gains momentum across the EU, the majority of farmers across the European continent will very quickly and unceremoniously commit memories of the 2024/25 season to the trash bin and look forward to a more favourable season ahead. However, the winter crop planting campaign is already facing headwinds, particularly with the persistent dry conditions across eastern Europe.

Oct 01 - US corn, soy stocks reach four-year highs as farmers harvest massive crops
U.S. farmers and merchants are sitting on the highest stocks of grains and soybeans left over from previous harvests in four years as they start gathering what are expected to be two of the largest soybean and corn crops on record. In the final figures for soy and corn still in storage bins from last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Monday that stocks for both crops were up 29% from a year ago on Sept. 1. 

Oct 01 - Australia could be canola trade winner if China gets over fungus worries
Australia would be the likely winner from a shift in global canola trade flows should China impose tariffs on Canadian imports of the oilseed, but Beijing will need to overcome their worries about a fungus. China, the world's biggest canola importer, has disrupted the market by announcing an anti-dumping investigation into canola from Canada, the world's biggest exporter of the oilseed used for cooking oil, fuel and animal feed and China's biggest supplier.

Sep 30 - Supply uncertainties pare funds’ CBOT soy, corn bearishness to four-month low - Braun
After months of unusually pessimistic sentiment, speculators’ bearish bets across Chicago soybeans and corn have finally pulled in line with other recent supply-heavy years, just ahead of a pivotal data release from the U.S. government. Notable short covering in soybeans most recently led this effort. 

Sep 30 - Ukraine 2024/25 grain crop, exports seen down due to weather, minister says
Ukraine's 2024 grain harvest may decrease to 54.6 million metric tons from around 60 million tons in 2023, mostly due to unfavourable weather, the newly appointed Ukrainian agriculture minister said on Friday. Vitaliy Koval told Reuters the harvest could include 21.8 million tons of wheat and 25.8 million tons of corn.

Sep 27 - Cocoa-hoarding in Ivory Coast curtailed by regulator's threat of sanctions
Ivory Coast's Coffee and Cocoa Council regulator has significantly curbed the hoarding of beans in September, due to the threat of sanctions against buyers and cooperatives, sources within the CCC, exporters, and buyers told Reuters on Thursday. Cocoa bean arrivals at the Ivorian ports of Abidjan and San Pedro exceeded 50,000 tons in the first three weeks of September, a significant increase from around 19,000 tons recorded for the entire month of September in 2023.

Sep 27 - The bearish and bullish cases for US corn stocks on Monday -Braun
Last year’s record-large harvest boosted U.S. corn inventory to multi-year highs, though the actual supply estimates have dwindled notably over the last year because of robust demand. The situation will be clearer on Monday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture publishes its quarterly stock survey results as of Sept. 1, which represents the end of the 2023-24 marketing year for U.S. corn and soybeans.

Sep 26 - Argentine farmers seen favoring soy over corn in 2024/25 season, exchange says
Argentine farmers are seen favoring soy over corn in the 2024/25 season on soybeans' profitability and as fears of a stunt disease hitting corn persist, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Wednesday. Soy output this season is seen inching up around 3% from the previous season to 52 million metric tons, according to estimates from the exchange, while corn production should slip around 5% to 47 million tons. 

Sep 26 - Low winter wheat sowing rates cloud Russia's 2025 harvest outlook
Winter wheat sowing rates in Russia have fallen to an 11-year low due to drought in key producing regions, clouding the outlook for the 2025 grain harvest, the Sovecon consultancy said on Wednesday. "As of Sept. 20, 8.3 million hectares had been sown with winter grains, compared to 9.3 million hectares a year earlier and the five-year average. This is the lowest figure since 2013," Sovecon said.

Sep 25 - Promising rebound in US wheat exports could be spoiled by Russia - Braun
After their worst campaign in 52 years, U.S. wheat exports are expected to reach four-year highs in the current marketing year thanks to a strong crop and relatively tame prices. Robust shipments have recently supported that forecast. 

Sep 25 - Colombia to produce 15% more coffee in 2024, growers' federation head says
Colombia, the world's top producer of washed arabica, will produce 13 million 60-kg bags of coffee this year, an increase of 15%, thanks to varieties that are more resistant to extreme climate conditions and fungus, the head of the national growers' federation said on Tuesday. Brazil and Vietnam, the world's top producers of coffee globally, have suffered output difficulties this year because of drought, sending international prices higher.

Sep 24 - Rice from Vietnam/Myanmar offered lowest in Indonesia’s tender, traders say
The lowest price offered in the international tender from Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog to buy about 450,000 metric tons of rice was estimated at $539.30 a ton cost and freight for rice expected to be sourced from either Vietnam or Myanmar, European traders said on Monday. The lowest offer was said to have been made for up to 30,200 tons.

Sep 24 - Indian refiners cancel palm oil contracts on duty hike, price riseIndian refiners cancelled 100,000 metric tons of palm oil purchases for delivery between October and December, as New Delhi's move to raise import duties amid a rally in overseas prices prompted them to book profits, five trade officials told Reuters. Refiners in the world's largest importer of palm oil cancelled this quantity over the past four days, including 50,000 tons on Monday, after Malaysian palm oil futures jumped to their highest level in 2-1/2 months. 

Sep 24 - USDA reports corn harvest 14% complete, soy 13%; ratings unchanged
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report showed the U.S. corn harvest as 14% complete, beneath an average of analyst expectations but ahead of the five-year average of 11%. Ten analysts surveyed by Reuters on average had estimated corn harvest progress at 17%.

Sep 23 - Recent strength in US soy sales not enough to lift export prospects - Braun
The United States is coming off one of its worst soybean export seasons in recent memory, with shipments rivaling those from a few years ago when the No. 2 exporter was locked in a trade war with top buyer China. Export sales of U.S. soybeans for 2024-25, which began Sept. 1, have been stronger than average over the past month as China has finally stepped in to make purchases.

Sep 23 - Brazil plants 0.5% of projected 2024/25 soybean area, behind last cycle, Safras says
Brazilian farmers have planted 0.5% of the projected 2024/25 soybean area in the country, below the 1.6% seen in the same period a year earlier, consultancy firm Safras & Mercado said on Friday. The level was also below the 1.5% historic average for the period, Safras said.

Sep 23 - Pulse Update: Frost, dry chop chunk from lentils, fabas (Grain Central)

- A SERIES of frosts and ongoing dry weather over much of South Australia and Victoria may have wiped as much as 500,000 tonnes from the Australian lentil crop. Yield potential for many southern faba bean crops has also been hit by frost.
- The lack of a finishing rain for chickpeas is pulling the northern pulse’s yield potential back from above average to average in some cases, and harvest is under way.
- Trade sources report production and quality concerns have tempered grower interest in forward selling, and prices are little changed from last month.

Chickpeas

Australia’s chickpea harvest has started at the few North Queensland properties where they are grown.
In Central Queensland, some growers have made a start, and loads are starting to filter into receival sites.
At Gindie, south of Emerald, grower Gordon Staal has made a start on his earliest chickpea crops, which are likely to be downgraded due to rain on ripening pods.
They were sown on shallower soils, and around two weeks earlier than the bulk of the region’s crops, which were planted in late April and early May.
“We’ve made a start; early crops are weather-damaged, but the mid to late-season ones will be the better ones,” Mr Staal said.
This year, Mr Staal planted no wheat and around 1800ha of Kyabra chickpeas, and is expecting yields of 1.7t/ha on the early weather-damaged crops, and 2.5t/ha on his later-sown crops.
With 5000t of on-farm storage, Mr Staal will concentrate on getting the crop off and marketing it later, particularly if bulk-handling or packing sites are only taking in the top CHKP1 grade.

He said variable soil and different run-off rates make for a harvesting challenge “like two crops in one” where early-maturing pods are brittle, and later ones are tough.
Trade sources report some truck drivers are already booked to deliver chickpeas from Gindie and other CQ regions south of Emerald direct to port in Brisbane, where at least 500,000t is booked to load by late February, the expected cut-off to catch the tariff-free window in India.
The market is currently trading at $1060/t delivered Brisbane for new crop, or $1020/t to either bulk accumulation or container packing sites on the Darling Downs.
In southern Qld, independent agronomist Paul McIntosh said yield outlooks are variable, based largely on whether crops got good winter rain.
“That flat Downs country that had some moisture might be looking at 2t/ha, but on lighter soil, it might be less than 1t/ha,” Mr McIntosh said.
At Walgett, Outlook Ag agronomist Greg Rummery said the yield outlook without a finishing rain looks like 1.5-2t/ha.
“The chickpea harvest will start in early November, and we’ve love a rain as soon as possible ahead of that,” Mr Rummery said.
“We dodged frost last week that’s knocked the odd flower off, and we’ve got two 31-degree days coming.
“A fall of rain now would be nice.”
Chickpea prices are down around $40/t from the recent highs seen last month.
Trade sources say growers are unlikely to make further sales ahead of either a decent finishing rain, or a solid start to harvest due to minor concerns about yield, and major concerns about getting downgraded by rain at harvest.

Faba beans

Crops in central and northern NSW and southern Qld are generally looking at above-average yields for fabas, most of which are still flowering.
In parts of southern NSW and Vic, and much of SA, yield potential has been hit hard by frost, and many crops will now struggle to make average yields.
Because of their much greater biomass than lentils, anything less than a 20mm-plus rain would do little rebuild yields following losses of flowers and setting pods.
“Beans are really going to struggle in the current environment,” Pinion Advisory commodity risk manager Chris Heinjus said.
Lentils
ABARES in early September revised up its forecast for new-crop lentils to 1.7 million tonnes (Mt), up around 100,000t from the previous estimate released in June.
Trade sources are now saying 1-1.2Mt seems more likely after successive frosts and ongoing dry conditions hit crops last week, and the weekend brought little to no rain.
However, some frost-hit lentil crops are already showing signs of new growth based on some light and patchy falls in recent days, and subsoil moisture.
Mr Heinjus said some lentil crops were being cut for hay due to poor yield prospects and quality concerns about what frost may have done to setting pods.
“Everything’s a bit challenging in South Australia, and that’s probably the understatement of the year,” Mr Heinjus said.
“A number of lentil crops haven’t even achieved canopy closure.”
Depending on topography and soil moisture, some of those crops exposed crops have dropped all their flowers, with spring frost coming on top of a year to date of decile zero to two rain for many growers.
“There’s no way you can quantify the loss occurred, but in my mind, it’s not insignificant.”
“It doesn’t matter what postcode you go into, there’s frost risk; we’re still within the window…for the next four to six weeks.”
Agronomists across southern NSW, Vic and SA are working with clients, and taking part in workshops, to help growers make assessments after what to do with their crops.
Options are to carry through to grain, cut for hay, or green or brown manure the crops to provide some groundcover ahead of summer.

Lentils

Current-crop lentil prices have risen around $30/t delivered Wimmera packer to $800/t, and around $10/t more for new-crop in the December-January slot.
“Our frost has woken up the overseas market,” ETG pulse trader Todd Krahe said.
“We could have lost a third of the crop through frost and dry conditions.”
Mr Krahe said the precarious nature of the growing season has limited forward selling from the state.
“Growers have been very cautious this year; I’d say 90 percent of our (new-crop volume) is from the big commercial guys.
“Family farmers have been very cautious.”
That said, SA and Vic will still have plenty of lentils to load on to early shipments, with the Lower Eyre Peninsula in SA and Vic Wimmera faring the best in terms of yield outlook.
Mr Heinjus said the container trade may come alive to deal with a crop that is smaller than expected, and may require grading to remove off-spec lentils.
“We might not have the volume in the bulk market to do as much as we’d hoped; the question is: Do we do containers?

Sep 20 - IGC trims global wheat, corn production forecasts
The International Grains Council (IGC) has trimmed its forecast for 2024/25 global wheat production with a downward revision for the European Union largely offset by an improved outlook for Australia. The intergovernmental body, in its monthly update on Thursday, anticipated global wheat production in 2024/25 at 798 million metric tons, down 1 million from its previous forecast although marginally above the prior season's 795 million.

Sep 20 - China soybean imports from US gain pace in August
China's soybean imports from the United States rose 70% in August from a year earlier, customs data showed on Friday, as buyers took advantage of low soybean prices. Shipments from the U.S., its second-biggest supplier, have gained pace since April, though volume remains much smaller than top producer Brazil.

Sep 20 - Ukrainian Agri Weekly Market Report (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, letter @196$
· wheat 11.5pro DAP center. Ukraine, September @9'100₴ with VAT
· soybean GMO DAP mon. Italy, heather-yellow (car) @400€
· soybean GMO DAP mon. Italy, yellow (eurotrain) @395€
· soybean GMO DAP center. Hungary, yellow-leaf (auto) @385€
· soybean oil FCA center. Ukraine, heather @815€

- Europe
· During the period from July 01 to September 15, corn imports to the EU reached 4.3 million tons, which is 14% more than the same period last year. Ukraine's share in total imports was 57% (compared to 52% last year), while Brazil's share fell to 12% (against 30% last year). The US share, by contrast, rose to 12.7% compared to 1.5% in the same period last year.
· EU wheat imports decreased by 15% to 1.9 million tons compared to last year. At the same time, Ukraine's share in the structure of imports increased to 66% (compared to 63% last year).
- World
· American farmers from the eastern corn belt note that corn yields are lower than expectations due to leaf diseases and dry conditions at the end of the growing season, which negatively affected the development of plants.
· The long bear commodity market (price reduction), which began a few years ago with an increase in the discount rate in the United States, may change. This week, for the first time in several years, the US discount rate reduction has the potential to support commodity market prices and launch a new upward trend.

- CORN
The international market began to actively discuss reducing the export potential of corn from Ukraine in 2024 and reducing the yield in the EU. The growth of U.S. corn export sales and the weak dollar will contribute to the strengthening of corn prices. CPT prices in the direction of Ukrainian seaports increased by $ 10 compared to last week. On the border, corn was sold at a price of 188-190€ FCA Chop.

- WHEAT
Prices for feed wheat continue to rise after corn. Traders actively procured feed wheat at the price of 190-195$ CPT seaports. At the same time, food wheat customers remained more cautious. However, aggressive sales and dumping on the Turkish and African markets hinder the rise in food wheat prices, not allowing them to rise higher.

- SUNFLOWER
Prices for sunflower rose to 21'000-21'500₴ with VAT with delivery to plants. Despite the gradual increase in sunflower supply due to the harvesting campaign, farmers continue to restrain oilseed sales, which affects the market situation. Meanwhile, the price of sunflower oil remains stable, fluctuating within 940-950$ CPT port.

- SOYA
World soybeans prices are under pressure because of active harvesting of American soybeans and traders' concern about the weakness of the Chinese economy, which is the largest soybean importer in the world. The decline in the discount rate in the US usually has a positive effect on commodity markets, but the bearish balance in the soybean market is likely to continue to exert pressure during harvest.
Ukrainian producers actively sell soybeans in all directions. The price of GMO-soy decreased by 10€ compared to last week, under the influence of the growth of the offer. In the direction of ports, traders reduce prices by $ 10, which also indicates changes in the market.

Sep 19 - India's wheat curbs insufficient; traders demand stock release
India's curbs on traders and processors are not enough to contain the rise in wheat prices during festival season, and the government needs to release stocks to augment supplies amid import restrictions, industry officials said on Wednesday. New Delhi last week lowered the limit of wheat stocks that traders, and millers can hold, to help boost the grain's availability and moderate prices that are near their highest level in nearly 10 months. 

Sep 19 - FranceAgriMer slashes soft wheat export forecasts after poor crop
FranceAgriMer on Wednesday sharply lowered its forecast for French soft wheat exports in 2024/25, after a rain-hit harvest strongly lowered supplies in the European Union's top grain producer. In a supply and demand outlook, the office pegged exports outside the 27-member bloc at 4 million metric tons, down from an initial projection of 7.5 million in July and now 61% below last season's level.

Sep 18 - Brazil's soybean crop seen up 12.8% in 2024/25, Conab says
Brazil's soybean crop is expected to reach 166.28 million metric tons in 2024/25, up 12.82% from the previous season, national crop agency Conab said on Tuesday in a preliminary forecast for the new cycle. The figures came from Conab's "Perspectivas" report, which does not include field research. The agency's first official estimates following field studies are set to be released on Oct. 15.

Sep 17 - Russian wheat export prices little changed as shipments stay high
Russian wheat export prices were little changed last week, although export volumes are expected to still be strong in September after record highs for the month in August. The price of 12.5% protein Russian new crop wheat scheduled free-on-board with delivery in October was $216 per metric ton at the end of last week, up $1, IKAR consultancy said.

Sep 17 - Ukraine grain exports at 8.7 mln tons so far in 2024/25, farm ministry says
Ukraine's grain exports in the 2024/25 July-June season reached 8.7 million metric tons as of Sept. 16, compared with 5.9 million tons by Sept. 20 in the previous season, agriculture ministry data showed on Monday. The volume included 4.8 million tons of wheat, 2.5 million tons of corn and 1.2 million tons of barley.

Sep 17 - US corn harvest 9% complete, soybeans 6% done, USDA data shows
The U.S. corn harvest was 9% complete by Sunday and the soybean harvest was 6% complete, government data showed on Monday, each 3 percentage points ahead of their respective five-year averages, while condition ratings were mixed. The U.S. Department of Agriculture in a weekly crop progress report rated 65% of the corn crop as good to excellent, up 1 percentage point from a week ago, while 10 analysts surveyed by Reuters on average had expected a 1-point decline.

Sep 16 - NOPA Aug US soybean crush seen at 171.325 million bushels
The monthly U.S. soybean crush likely fell by more than 6% in August as processors idled plants for seasonal maintenance and repairs ahead of the 2024 harvest, analysts said ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Monday. NOPA members, who handle about 95% of all U.S. processed soybeans, were estimated to have crushed 171.325 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from nine analysts surveyed by Reuters.

Sep 16 - India sharply raises import tax on edible oils to support farmers
India has raised the basic import tax on crude and refined edible oils by 20 percentage points, the government said on Friday, as the world's biggest edible oil importer tries to help protect farmers reeling from lower oilseed prices. The move could lift edible oil prices and dampen demand and subsequently reduce overseas purchases of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil.

Sep 16 - India removes floor price for basmati rice exports to claw back global share
India removed a floor price for basmati rice exports on Friday, according to a government order, to help farmers struggling with debt and higher costs boost overseas sales of the premium grade just weeks ahead of the arrival of the new-season crop. Last year New Delhi set a floor price, or minimum export price (MEP), of $1,200 a metric ton and later cut the MEP to $950 a ton

Sep 13 - Ukrainian Agri Weekly Market Report (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn FCA Chop, Oct @178€
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, heather-yellow @186$->187$
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, heather @8'450₴->8'550₴->8'800₴ VAT
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Heather @17'800₴
· soybean GMO DAP mon. Italy, heather-yellow @405€->401€
· soybean GMO DAP border of Hungary, heather-yellow @357€->355€
· soybean non-GMO DAP border of Hungary, heather-yellow @400€
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Veres @940$

- Ukraine
· As of 12.09, late crops were collected in Ukraine: sunflower - 2 974.6 thousand tons (from 30% of the area), soybeans - 1 845 thousand tons (from 34% of the area), corn - 1 1 102 thousand tons (from 6% of the area).
· As a result of the rF missile strike on the vessel with Ukrainian wheat, it is expected that the rates for sea transportation will increase.

- Europe
· The corn harvest in Romania is expected at 6-8 million tons against an average of 11-12 million tons. Exports will decrease from 4.4 to 2-2.2 million tons.
· In Hungary, the harvest is forecast at 5-5.5 million tons against the average 7-8 million tons, and exports will decrease from 3-4 to 1.5-2 million tons.
· The EU will not receive 3.5-4.2 million tons of NOT GMO corn from Eastern Europe.
· Due to drought and heat in Hungary and Romania in 2024, the level of aflatoxins has been increased, which can affect the quality and export of corn.

- CORN
Prices for corn in Europe rose to 178-180€ per ton, which was loaded into the euro car. Ukrainian corn receives a premium in relation to corn from Eastern Europe, which gives manufacturers of western Ukraine a profitable alternative to sales and exports compared to sea ports. Buyers in the direction of seaports bought grain at a price of $ 185-187 per ton in October. The prize for later months was $2 per ton per month.

- WHEAT
Wheat prices are gradually recovering. The stable demand for forage wheat brings its value closer to food wheat prices and reduced the difference with wheat with a protein content of 11.5%. The restrained offer from manufacturers forces exporters to raise prices. Prices for feed wheat in the direction of Germany and the Netherlands demonstrate premium compared to corn prices.

- SUNFLOWER
Prices for sunflower remained almost unchanged at 20'500-21'000 UAH with VAT for basic oil content 46%, with delivery to factories. Ukraine has already collected almost 3 million tons of sunflower seeds, which meets the needs of processing plants for about three months. At the same time, manufacturers are restraining sales by maintaining up to 50% of the harvested crop, which is confirmed by the purchase of plants and the actual coverage of their needs by mid-October. The price of sunflower oil increased by 10$ per ton compared to last week in the direction of seaports and was traded within 940-950$ per ton.

- SOYA
Manufacturers actively offer soybeans in all directions, including ports, Europe and the western border. The high content of green grains in soybeans from central Ukraine exceeds the export quality standards. Soybeans prices have increased in ports, remaining stable in the direction of Europe. For GMO soy buyers paid 385-390$ with delivery to ports, the premium for NE-GMO is kept at 50-55$. In Italy, GMO soybeans traded for 400-410€ DAP, the premium for NE-GMO remains 30-35€.

Sep 13 - Huge US corn, soy yields could stave off further increases - Braun
The grain market moved one step closer to settling the size of the U.S. corn and soybean crops on Thursday with fresh projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. But the question now is whether the final harvest volumes could be bigger or smaller in a way that could materially change the current fundamental landscape, where supplies are very ample. 

Sep 12 - Argentina soy planting seen climbing as corn crop faces dry weather, plague
Argentine farmers are seen opting for more soy this season as corn planting has been hit by dry weather and fears of disease carried by the leafhopper insect, the Rosario grains exchange said on Wednesday. The 2024/25 soy planting area is seen at 17.7 million hectares, up 7.5% from the previous season, according to the exchange. 

Sep 12 - India to buy soybeans to help farmers reeling from losses
India will buy soybeans from farmers of the central state of Madhya Pradesh at state-set support prices to help growers reeling from a crash in domestic rates for the oilseed, a government statement said on Wednesday. India uses soybeans to manufacture soyoil, which helps the country cut its hefty edible oil imports, while the by-product soymeal is used for animal feed and exported mainly to Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

Sep 11 - EU 2024/25 soft wheat exports down 23% by Sept 8, data incomplete
Soft wheat exports from the European Union since the start of the 2024/25 season in July had reached 4.82 million metric tons by Sept. 8, down 23% compared with 6.25 million a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. EU barley exports totalled 1.32 million tons, down 34% from 2.01 million tons in the corresponding period in 2023/24.

Sep 11 - Egypt's GASC buys 69,700 metric tons of sunflower oil in international tender
Egypt's state grains buyer GASC said on Tuesday it had bought 69,700 metric tons of sunflower oil in an international tender at $1,045-$1,047 per ton on C&F basis for payment at sight. GASC also bought 6,500 tons of local soybean oil in Egyptian pounds, it said.

Sep 11 - Ukraine raises expectations for late crop yields
Ukraine's yields on late grain and oilseed crops will not be as badly affected by drought as previously feared, the agriculture minister said on Tuesday. Vitaliy Koval, who was appointed minister last week, told national television that yields of late crops would fall by 10% to 15% compared with 2023. 

Sep 11 - Brazil fires burn protective straw in another setback for soy
Brazilian fires that have burned through straw used by soybean farmers to protect fields from the heat mark another "aggravating" setback for this season's crop, a farmers' group from the world's largest soy supplier said on Tuesday. Aprosoja Brasil President Mauricio Buffon told Reuters in an interview that swathes of straw - dried grain stalks gathered from previous harvests that hold moisture in the soil during dry weather - were burned in fires.

Sep 10 - China Aug soybean imports at record 12.14 mln tons
China brought in a record 12.14 million metric tons of soybeans in August, as traders took advantage of lower prices to stock up amid concerns that trade tension with the United States could intensify if Donald Trump returned as president. Last month's imports were a jump of 29% from 9.43 million tons a year ago, according to Reuters' calculations based on customs data.

Sep 10 - Brazil's first corn planting 15% done, soy not started, AgRural says
Brazilian farmers in the country's key center-south region had planted 15% of the expected area for the 2024/25 first corn crop as of last Thursday, consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up from 8% a week earlier but short of the previous season's 17%. Brazil plants corn all year round and the first crop usually represents about 20% of national output, while the second crop - which is planted later, after soybeans are harvested on the same fields - accounts for some 75%.

Sep 09 - At least 230,000 hectares of sugarcane affected by fires in Sao Paulo state, Brazil's UNICA says
At least 230,000 hectares of sugarcane were affected by August fires in Brazil's Sao Paulo state, industry group UNICA said on Friday in a statement.According to UNICA, the numbers are still partial and companies surveyed represent more than 75% of Sao Paulo's sugarcane production. 

Sep 09 - In Brazil's citrus belt, more than 44% of oranges have greening disease
In the citrus belt of the central Brazilian states Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais, the incidence of citrus greening increased for the seventh consecutive year to 44.35% of orchards, a survey by foundation Fundecitrus showed Friday. In 2023, 38.06% of orchards were affected by the disease, which has no proven cure and yields stunted fruit.

Sep 06 - Ukrainian Grains Weekly Report (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Heather-list @180$->184$
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Heather @915$
· sunflower oil DAP center. Bulgaria, heather-yellow @1'005$

- Ukraine
· The Government voted for the new Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, focused on support and development of the domestic processing industry, creating a final product and a significant increase in the value of a unit of exported products.
· Farmers began collecting late grains in Ukraine. As of 05.09, late crops were collected in Ukraine: sunflower - 1,389.6 thousand tons, soybean - 1,007.3 thousand tons, corn - 457.5 thousand tons.
· Producers harvested sunflower from 16% of the area with a yield of 17.8 centners per hectare, which is 5% less compared to last year's yield on this date, and soybeans from 20% of the area with a yield of 18.6 centners per hectare, which is 27% less compared to last year's yield on this date.
· Exports from Ukraine of cereals, oilseeds, as well as processed products for August amounted to: corn - 645.8 thousand tons, wheat - 2 244.0 thousand tons, barley - 469.5 thousand tons, soybean - 145.6 thousand tons, rape - 794.2 thousand tons, sunflower - 1 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 199.1 thousand tons, soybean oil - 26.4 thousand tons, cake - 237.1 thousand tons.

- CORN
Prices for corn in the direction of ports increased by almost $ 10 compared to the price last week. Most Ukrainian producers will start actively harvesting corn from mid-September. Drought and lack of rain dried corn in the field to a moisture index of 13-18% on average in Ukraine.

- WHEAT
Sustainable demand in foreign markets ensured the export of wheat in the period from July to August in the amount of 3.8 million tons. This indicator has already amounted to 23% of the annual export potential, which was agreed for export in the 2024/25 season by the Ministry. If the rate of wheat exports is maintained, Ukraine can reach 80% of the annual export potential as early as December.

- RAPE
The number of buyers in the direction of seaports is gradually decreasing. Most of the rapeseed programs are completed in ports by the end of September. Buyers considered proposals in the direction of seaports within 480-490$, depending on the ISCC certification and the oil content index.

- SUNFLOWER
Prices for sunflower have stabilized at 20,500-21,000 UAH with VAT, delivered to factories, depending on the delivery location and oil content index. The market is gradually saturated with offers of sunflower. On the Bulgarian market, Ukrainian sunflower was traded at 500-510$ delivered, which, taking into account the cost of logistics from Western Ukraine, gives a parity of 425$ from the farm of Western Ukraine.

- SOYA
Prices for soybeans increased by an average of $ 10 in all areas. For soybean GMO buyers offered 380-385$ with delivery to seaports; the prize for soy NE-GMO was almost 50-55$. The Italian direction was traded in the range of 400-410€ DAP for GMO soy; the premium for NE-GMO was 30-35€.

Sep 06 - Soy grown illegally on Brazil's tribal lands finds its way to global markets
Farm cooperatives in Brazil that supply some of the world's biggest multinational agricultural firms are buying soybeans grown illegally on Indigenous reservations in the country, according to tribal leaders and court records, despite the companies' public pledges to respect the land rights and resources of Indigenous peoples. The expansion of commercial farming onto Indigenous lands, which make up about 13% of Brazil's territory, has stirred division and violent conflicts in scores of communities, according to the federal police, the Catholic Church's Indigenous Missionary Council and the Brazilian government agency overseeing Indigenous affairs, FUNAI.

Sep 05 - Taiwan buys estimated 101,700 T wheat of US-origin, traders sayThe Taiwan Flour Millers' Association purchased an estimated 101,700 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender on Wednesday, European traders said. The purchase involved various wheat types for shipment from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast in two consignments.

Sep 05 - Brazil's soybean area set to expand at slowest pace in 18 years, AgRural says
The area planted with soybeans in Brazil will grow in 2024/25 at its slowest pace in almost two decades, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Wednesday, forecasting a modest 0.9% expansion when compared with the previous season. Farmers in the South American country, the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, are set to start sowing their 2024/25 crop this month, although bad weather is seen delaying some work in the fields.

Sep 05 - Drought dominates Ukrainian winter grain sowing fields, forecasters say
Ukrainian farmers have started sowing winter grain crops for the 2025 harvest, but the availability of moisture in the soil in most regions of Ukraine is extremely low, state weather forecasters said on Wednesday. In recent years, Ukraine has often experienced a lack of soil moisture during autumn sowing, but farmers are hoping that a wet and mild winter and favourable weather in the spring will allow for a good harvest.

Sep 04 - Ethanol push turns India into corn importer, shaking up global market
A push by India to make more corn-based ethanol has turned Asia's top corn exporter into a net importer for the first time in decades, squeezing local poultry producers and scrambling global supply chains. The jump in import demand comes after India in January hiked the procurement price of ethanol made from corn to drive a shift away from sugarcane-based ethanol for blending in gasoline.

Sep 04 - China hits Canada with anti-dumping probe on canola imports, Ottawa deeply concerned
China said on Tuesday it planned to start an anti-dumping investigation into canola imports from Canada, after Ottawa moved to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, lifting prices of domestic rapeseed oil futures to a one-month peak. Canadian Farm Minister Lawrence MacAulay said the move was "deeply concerning".

Sep 03 - Ghana set to raise cocoa farmgate price by nearly 45%, sources say
Ghana will increase the state-guaranteed price paid to its cocoa farmers by nearly 45% for the 2024/25 crop season, two sources with knowledge of the price review told Reuters, to help boost their incomes and deter bean smuggling out of the country. The world's number two cocoa producer raised the farmgate price by more than 58% to 33,120 cedi per metric ton, or 2,070 cedi per 64 kilogram (kg), in April for the rest of the 2023/24 season.

Sep 03 - Argentina rains to give welcome boost to imminent corn planting
Rainfall in Argentina at the weekend is expected to boost the 2024/25 corn crop as farmers begin planting this month, the Rosario grains exchange said in a report published on Monday. As much as 50 millimeters (2 inches) of rain fell in some areas of the country's core farmland, with showers particularly benefiting the north of Buenos Aires province and the southern part of Santa Fe province.

Sep 02 - ISO forecasts 2024/25 global sugar deficit of 3.58 mln tons
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecast a global sugar deficit of 3.58 million metric tons in its first assessment of the 2024/25 season on Friday. In a quarterly update, the inter-governmental body also cut its forecast for an expected deficit in the season from October 2023 to September 2024 to 200,000 tons, from 2.95 million seen in its last update in June.

Sep 02 - India braces for another month of above-average rainfall in September
India is forecast to receive above-average rainfall in September after surplus rains in August, the weather department said on Saturday. The rainfall in September is likely to be more than 109% of a 50-year average, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department, told a virtual news conference.

Aug 30 - Ukrainian Grains Weekly Report (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Dec @180$
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, September-list @182$
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @372$
· soybean GMO DAP border, Ukraine, Heather @383$
· rapeseed NE-GMO DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Veres @500$

- Ukraine
· Ukrainian producers adapted to market realities and switched to cheaper production technologies, which reduced the financial burden and the need to quickly sell agricultural products after harvesting.
- World
· Continuing the strike in Argentina until 09.09 causes delay in export shipments.
· Discussions on reducing China's import dependence could significantly affect American and Ukrainian exports.
· Recent forecasts from Canada showed a slight increase in wheat production to 34.4 million tons, which is slightly higher than expectations.
· The quality of the French wheat crop was significantly reduced due to excessive rains affecting the protein content and other quality indicators.
· The projected Australian wheat production increased to 30.5 million tons due to better yield forecasts in the western territories.

- CORN
There is a renewed interest in corn in the direction of Europe. Returning traders from August holidays in the absence of a bid from Eastern Europe creates a strain for some European importers. On the western border, corn was traded by FCA Chop at levels of 170-175€ with the shipment of the European train in October-December. In the direction of seaports, buyers were ready to buy corn at levels of 175-180$. The offer from manufacturers is very limited, and most of them are not ready to sell for harvest.

- WHEAT
Wheat prices have undergone seasonal correction against the background of an active offer in August. Seasonal August and September are not favorable for wheat sales. For wheat with a protein of 11%, Italian buyers were willing to pay 172-178€ on the western border of FCA Chop. In the direction of ports, wheat prices decreased by 3-5$ per ton compared to last week's levels.

- RAPE
The strengthening of the euro and the resumption of rapeseed prices on MATIF allowed prices in dollars to rise to 500$ in the direction of seaports. The demand for rapeseed in the direction of the western border at 410€ FCA for oil content is 40% with an additional premium for oil content.

- SUNFLOWER
The increase in prices of palm oil and the limited supply of sunflower from the Ukrainian manufacturer increased prices from processors. Many of them do not have sufficient coverage since September, which creates a significant strain and willingness to raise prices.

- SOYA
Soybean prices remained almost unchanged compared to last week. A slight strengthening can be noted in the direction of Europe on soybean NE-GMO. In the direction of the Serbian market, you can sell soybean NE-GMO at levels of 470-480€.

Aug 30 - Favourable weather swells outlook for Australia wheat harvest
Australia should produce over 31 million metric tons of wheat in the upcoming harvest, around two million tons more than forecast earlier and significantly more than in 2023/24, after rain in major crop regions boosted yields, analysts said. Australia is the world's third-biggest wheat exporter and bumper production is likely to pressure global prices already trading close to their lowest in four years.

Aug 30 - India's monsoon expected to be prolonged, threatening ripe crops, sources say
India's monsoon rains are likely to be prolonged into late September this year due to the development of a low-pressure system in the middle of the month, two weather department officials told Reuters. Above-normal rainfall due to the delayed withdrawal of the monsoon could damage India's summer-sown crops like rice, cotton, soybean, corn, and pulses, which are typically harvested from mid-September.

Aug 29 - As sweltering summers ravage crops, Japan bets on heat-resistant rice
Grappling with a rice shortage after extreme weather ravaged last year's crop, Japan is hoping new heat-resistant varieties of its staple food can help stave off future supply shocks. Last summer's high temperatures and dry conditions led to lower rice yields in key growing regions and damaged the quality of grains, contributing to the lowest inventories seen in 25 years, according to official data.

Aug 29 - Brazil's braking of soy expansion unlikely to prevent global stock swell -Braun
Brazil’s seemingly unstoppable expansion in soybean plantings over the last several years has cemented the country as the world’s source for beans, as it now accounts for nearly 60% of all exports versus around 40% just a decade ago. This year’s price slump has the oilseed looking less attractive than normal to Brazilian producers, though a record crop and the further padding of global supplies may be inevitable.

Aug 28 - Argentine farmers eye pivot to soy on corn plague fears, rain outlook
Argentine farmers are likely to plant more soybeans in the current 2024/25 season, trimming the area dedicated to corn after that crop's last harvest was hit by a devastating insect plague and with rain forecasts looking rosier for soy. The trend could see the largest expansion in soy planting in over a decade, analysts said, potentially boosting supplies globally with prices already subdued. Argentina is the world's top exporter of processed soymeal and oil.

Aug 28 - 'Nature is punishing us': Drought imperils farmers and bees in Mexico's north
In the northern Mexican state of Chihuahua, residents and farmers have anxiously watched and waited for clouds to bring rain to refill dried-out dams, water wells and lagoons. They've waited so far in vain. The largest state of Mexico has a dry or semi-dry climate at the best of times, but has faced unusually low rainfall levels in recent years. Near the town of Buenaventura, the Las Lajas dam is near empty and the little water left is infested with dead fish.

Aug 27 - Biggest takeaways on US corn, soy crops after annual crop tour - Braun
Record yields are already predicted for U.S. corn and soybean crops, but some of the estimates, particularly for soybeans, are becoming rather lofty. Last week’s Pro Farmer Crop Tour confirmed massive pod populations in the soybean fields, though overall corn yields were not the best ever measured.

Aug 27 - Argentina rains still not enough to boost wheat crop
Recent rains in Argentina's agricultural heartland were not enough to lift the wheat crop, which has withered on lack of precipitation, the Rosario Grains Exchange said on Monday. Argentina is a major wheat exporter worldwide, with an estimated 6.3 million hectares planted for the 2024/25 season. However, winter frosts and a lack of rain in the center and western agricultural areas has hit the crop.

Aug 26 - US crop tour forecasts record-large soy crop above government estimate
The U.S. soybean harvest will be even bigger than the U.S. government's record forecast, advisory service Pro Farmer said on Friday, though it forecast a smaller corn crop than the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Near-perfect growing weather in most areas of the world's top corn exporter and No. 2 soybean exporter boosted bets on big crops, keeping futures prices of both commodities near four-year lows. The lower cost of growing soy versus corn, floods in some areas, and a timely winter-wheat harvest encouraged farmers to plant more soybeans than last year.

Aug 26 - South Korea’s MFG buys about 67,000 T of corn in tender
South Korea's Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 67,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South America in an international tender on Friday, European traders said. One consignment was bought at an estimated $234.70 a ton cost and freight (c&f) included, plus a $1.20 a ton surcharge for additional port unloading.

Aug 23 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Report (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Aug @8'400 UAH with VAT
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @176$
· DAP soybeans Danube, Ukraine, Oct @17'700 UAH with VAT
· sunflower DAP Odessa, Ukraine, heather @495$ with VAT
· DAP rapeseed cake zh. Latvia, sickle @294€

· The ProFarmer tour in the US manufacturing regions confirms the market's expectations for a significant harvest of soybean and corn.
· The participants of the ProFarmer tour identified the highest yield in Illinois in 32 years of tour history at 13.7 tons per hectare, which exceeds the average level last year of 13.02 tons per hectare.
- World
· SovEcon updated the forecast for corn harvest in pF to the lowest level since 2018 - 11.9 million tons, compared to 13.4 million tons last year.
· Buenos Aires Grain Exchange predicts that Argentina's next-crop corn crop area will be 17% less than last year, due to concerns about the outbreak of the cicada.

- CORN
The EU imported 2.9 million tons of corn from 01.07, which is 27% more than in the same period last year. Ukraine's share of 64%, or 1.9 million tons, compared to last year's figure of 1.4 million tons over the same period. It is worth noting the growth in the share of imports of corn from the United States to 10% in the structure of imports, compared to 0.5% last year, and Serbia - to 8% compared to 0.8% last year for the same period. The deferred offer of corn increases.

- WHEAT
The share of Ukraine in total wheat imports to the EU decreased to 56% against 63% last year for the period from 01.07 to 18.08. The share of Canada and Moldova in total EU imports increased to 35% compared to 14% last year. Against the background of problems with high-quality wheat, European buyers are actively considering the offers of food wheat from Ukraine.

- RAPE
Imports of rapeseed to the EU from 01.07 amounted to 492 thousand tons, which is 39% more than last year. The main share, 59%, of imports was Australian rapeseed, the share of Ukraine amounted to 140 thousand tons, or 28%. Significant saturation of the EU market with rapeseed from Australia, Moldova, Serbia and Kazakhstan compensates for the shortage of crops in Ukraine.

- SUNFLOWER
Prices for sunflower continue to keep at 490-500$ with VAT and delivery to the plant. Manufacturers postpone the sale of oil, not allowing the market to be saturated with offers and adjusted in price. According to plant representatives, at current prices for sunflower processing becomes economically unprofitable. Sunflower oil traded at 910$ CPT seaports for the period until November without premiums for later periods.

- SOYA
From 01.07 to 18.08, the EU imported 1.6 million tons of soybeans, which is 16% less than the same period last year. 89% of imports amounted to soybeans from Brazil and the United States, while the share of Ukraine is 7.5%, or 123 thousand tons in absolute terms of the reporting period. Soybean prices have decreased against the backdrop of an active soybean supply from North and South America.

Aug 23 - Crop tour finds record Iowa corn crop prospects; Minnesota sub-par
Iowa's corn yield potential set a new record high for the Pro Farmer Crop Tour while excessive June rains drove Minnesota's corn yield prospects to the lowest levels since 2012, scouts on an annual tour of top U.S. production states found on Thursday. The tour projected Iowa's corn yield at 192.79 bushels per acre (bpa), well above the 2023 tour average of 182.80 bpa for the largest U.S. corn state and above the tour's three-year average of 185.79 bpa.

Aug 23 - Argentine rains boost wheat but delay sunflower planting
Argentina's current wheat season should continue to improve thanks to recent rainy days, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said in a report on Thursday, though the wet weather slowed the start of the country's sunflower campaign. The South American nation is a major world supplier of wheat and has planted some 6.3 million hectares for the 2024/25 season.

Aug 22 - Crop tour finds huge Illinois corn yield potential, big soy pod counts
Corn yield prospects in Illinois are the biggest in the Pro Farmer crop tour's 32-year history and the state's soybean pod count is the largest seen on the tour since 2000, scouts on the annual U.S. Midwest tour reported on Wednesday. The crop tour projected the Illinois corn yield at 204.14 bushels per acre (bpa), a record that surpassed the tour's previous high set in 2014.

Aug 22 - China's red-hot wheat imports to cool on local output gains, slowing demand
China's wheat buying spree is likely to slow in the second half of 2024 as higher domestic output and declining flour consumption reduce import demand in the world biggest consumer of the grain. China has made record wheat purchases in recent years and a reduction in buying is expected to put additional pressure on global prices which are trading close to their lowest in four years amid plentiful supply, traders and analysts said.

Aug 21 - Crop tour finds massive Indiana soybean potential, corn at 3-yr high
Indiana's soybean pod count is the largest seen on the Pro Farmer crop tour in 22 years and the state's corn yield prospects are at a three-year high, scouts on the annual U.S. Midwest tour reported Tuesday. The four-day tour of top U.S. grain and oilseed producing states, which does not project soybean yields, estimated the average number of soybean pods in a 3-foot by 3-foot square in Indiana at 1,409.02 pods - the most reported since 2002, tour officials said.

Aug 21 - Argentina's next corn crop seen covering 17% less farmland amid pest fears
Argentina's upcoming 2024/25 corn crop is seen covering 6.3 million hectares, down 17% compared to the previous cycle as pest and weather concerns mount, the Buenos Aires grains exchange announced on Tuesday. The smaller estimate - the exchange's first forecast for the 2024/25 season - comes amid fears that the crop will be hurt by the impact of a costly leafhopper insect plague.

Aug 20 - China July soy imports from US jump threefold, customs data shows
China's soybean imports from the U.S. jumped threefold in July from a year earlier, as the U.S. growing season picks up, but Brazilian supplies still took the bulk of the market share, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. The world's biggest soybean buyer imported 475,392 metric tons of the oilseed from the United States last month, compared with 142,129 metric tons a year earlier, according to the data.

Aug 20 - Raw sugar prices to rebound but still post annual loss
Global raw sugar prices are expected to regain ground during the remainder of 2024 but still end with a small annual loss of less than 3%, a Reuters poll of 10 traders and analysts showed on Monday. The sweetener is set to close the year at 20 cents per lb, up 10.9% from Friday's close but still 2.8% below levels at the end of last year, according to the poll's median forecast.

Aug 19 - China's biodiesel producers seek new outlets as hefty EU tariffs bite
Chinese biodiesel producers are seeking new outlets in Asia for their exports and exploring producing other biofuels as supply to the European Union, their biggest buyer, dries up ahead of anti-dumping tariffs, biofuel executives and analysts said. The EU will impose provisional anti-dumping duties of between 12.8% and 36.4% on Chinese biodiesel from Friday, hitting over 40 companies including leading producers Zhejiang Jiaao, Henan Junheng and Longyan Zhuoyue Group in an export business that was worth $2.3 billion last year.

Aug 19 - Indonesia raises price cap in palm oil domestic scheme, trade ministry says
Indonesia has revised its rules on its palm oil domestic market obligation scheme, raising the price cap in a bid to improve supplies of cheap cooking oil, the trade ministry said. Indonesia, the world's biggest palm-oil exporter, obliges producers to sell a portion of their output to the local market at a capped price in order to gain export permits.

Aug 16 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Report (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, heather-yellow @183$
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @380$
· rape NE-GMO ISCC DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Aug @490$

- Ukraine
· USDA updated in August the forecast for the harvest in Ukraine: wheat - 21.6 million tons (preliminary assessment - 19.5 million tons), corn - 27.2 million tons (preliminary assessment — 27.7 million tons), soybean - 6.8 million tons (preliminary assessment — 5.5 million tons).
· As of 15.08, Ukraine collected wheat - 21.6 million tons (100% of the area), barley - 5.48 million tons (100% of the area), peas - 459 thousand tons (99% of the area), rape - 3.35 million tons (99% of the area).

- CORN
The activity of the new crop corn sales by the producers decreased. Buyers are still undecided on the trading program for corn, and producers are focused on soybean sales. The strengthening of the euro against the American currency leads to a decrease in prices in the direction of Europe. Prices in US dollars remain unchanged in the direction of ports compared to last week's prices.

- WHEAT
Prices for wheat remained unchanged compared to last week. It is worth noting the increased demand for feed wheat with a protein index of 10% or higher. The difference between forage and food wheat tends to be narrowed.

- RAPE
Price levels for rapeseed increased in comparison with the previous week due to the renewal of quotations on the stock exchange MATIF. U.S. dollar prices gained additional support and rose in the port direction due to the devaluation of the U.S. currency.

- SUNFLOWER
Sunflower of new crop is traded at 490-500 USD with VAT in the direction of ports, depending on the oil content. Southern regions began harvesting sunflower with record low oil of 33-36% on dry matter. The main reason for this was the drought and high temperatures, the manufacturers note.

- SOYA
After the USDA data is updated and Ukraine soybeans have grown to 2.9 million hectares, the oilseed crop is projected at 6.8 million tons against a preliminary estimate of 5.5 million tons. A significant increase in soybean crop is already reflected in the active proposals of producers for September-November, which adds pressure on prices in conditions of limited demand. Producers prefer the sale of soybeans, not corn.

Aug 16 - IGC cuts global wheat crop outlook on poor French harvest
The International Grains Council (IGC) has trimmed its forecast for 2024/25 global wheat production driven largely by a downward revision for France which has just endured one of the worst wheat harvests in decades. The inter-governmental body, in its monthly update on Thursday, forecast global wheat output at 799 million metric tons, down from a previous projection of 801 million although still above the prior season's 794 million.

Aug 16 - Dry weather to hamper Argentina wheat crop in coming days
Dry weather will continue to weigh on Argentina's wheat crop over the next few days, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday, warning the crop in the country's western farm regions had already been bit by recent cold, dry weather. Argentina is a major world exporter of wheat, with the exchange estimating some 6.3 million hectares planted for the 2024/25 season. Planting of the crop has been completed.

 

Aug 15 - The subcommission approved the extension of the duties on exports of sunflower seeds and soybeans until autumn 2026 (INTERFAX)

The Subcommission on Customs-Tariff and Non-Tariff Regulation, Protective Measures in Foreign Trade of the Government Commission for Economic Development and Integration approved the extension for the period from September 1, 2024 to August 31, 2026 of the validity of export customs duties on sunflower seeds in the amount of 50%, but not less than 32 thousand rubles per ton; soybeans - in the amount of 20%, but not less than $100 per ton, the Ministry of Economic Development told Interfax.

It is planned to extend the "floating" export customs duties on sunflower oil and sunflower meal for the same period.

In addition, the Sub-Commission supported the decision to impose export duties on rapeseed for the period from 1 September 2024 to 31 August 2026 at a rate of 30 per cent, but not less than Euro165 per ton. This decision replaced the current temporary ban on the export of rapeseed.
"These measures were discussed with businesses and are aimed at balancing the domestic market and restraining consumer prices. The relevant draft resolution will be submitted to the government in due course," the press office said.

Tariffs on sunflower, soybean, sunflower oil and meal, extended a year ago, were reported to end on 31 August 2024.

Russia introduced floating tariffs on the export of sunflower oil and meal on September 1, 2021. At first they were calculated in dollars. Since July 2022, duties are defined in rubles. The duty rate for sunflower oil is 70% of the difference between the base price (82,500 rubles per ton) and the reference price (the arithmetic average of market prices for a month). Export duty for sunflower meal is calculated using the formula as the difference between the reference price (arithmetic mean of market prices for a month) and the base price (15,875 rubles per ton), multiplied by the amount of the adjustment coefficient (0.7).

Aug 15 - US farmers grow record soy crop, ditch pricier corn
The lower cost of growing soy versus corn, floods in some areas and a quick winter-wheat harvest drove the U.S. government to raise its soybean-production forecast to a record high this week, farmers and analysts said. A record harvest from the world's second-biggest soybean producer would contribute to larger supplies of the oilseed, used to make biofuels and livestock feed. Global grains markets are in oversupply after several years of disruption and tight supplies due to the pandemic and then the war in Ukraine.

Aug 15 - Chicago soybeans may have found fair market value if demand can be trusted - Braun
Soybean prices were already on their way to a historical downward correction before suspicions of a record U.S. crop were confirmed this week, and the latest price levels could be satisfactory if demand is cooperative. But that is a big "if." CBOT November soybean futures notched an all-time low on Wednesday of $9.55-1/4 per bushel, the most-active contract’s lowest level since Sept. 2, 2020.

Aug 14 - Egypt in talks to buy large volume of wheat from sellers including Russia, traders say
Egypt's state commodities buyer GASC is in talks to buy 30 cargoes or up to 1.8 million metric tons of wheat from sellers including Russia, traders in Europe and the Middle East said. The talks come after one of the world's top wheat importers failed to buy supplies from October 2024 to April 2025 in one go on Monday through its biggest ever tender. Egypt had sought to lock in relatively low wheat prices with the giant tender, but only accepted offers for less than a tenth of what it needs. 

 

Aug 14 - USDA crop forecasts for Ukraine exceed domestic estimates
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's August forecast for Ukraine's corn production exceeds domestic estimates as it does not fully take into account the impact of a damaging heatwave, Ukrainian officials, analysts and traders said. The USDA report shows Ukraine is expected to harvest 27.2 million metric tons of corn, while domestic analysts and brokers anticipate 24-to-25 million tons.

Aug 13 - June barley exports surge to 725,085t, sorghum drops (Grains Central)

- AUSTRALIA exported 725,085 tonnes of barley and 249,071t of sorghum in June, according to the latest export data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

- The feed barley component at 485,276t was more than double the 216,118t shipped in May, with shipments to China at 384,002t accounting for 79 percent of the total. The second-biggest destination for Australia’s June-shipped feed barley was Japan on 75,600t, followed by Vietnam on 17,855t.

- Malting exports at 239,809t also surged from the May total of 147,507t, with China on 146,173t accounting for 61pc of the June figure. Mexico on 33,000t, followed closely by Vietnam on 31,295t, were the second and third-biggest markets respectively for June-shipped malting barley. China was also the major market for June-shipped sorghum, taking 220,871t, or 89pc, of the 249,071t total. Japan on 22,064t was the second-biggest market for June-shipped sorghum, followed by Taiwan on 4380t.

Aug 13 - Rain-hit crops create triple whammy for French grain farmers
Jean Lefevre like many French farmers has just endured one of the worst wheat harvests in decades as rain barely stopped from the moment he started sowing his grain last October to when he started gathering the crop last month. France, the European Union's largest grain producer, has experienced particularly wet weather in the past year, including a month of continuous rain in October-November, the wettest spring ever and violent storms last month.

Aug 13 - Big crops to grow even bigger? Maybe so, based on trends in US corn, soy yields - Braun
Government data on Monday indicated enormous U.S. corn and soybean harvests are on deck, but will those estimates only grow larger, or are they the highest that will be seen this season? It is often said that big crops tend to get bigger, but the burden of proof can be heavier when the original numbers are already lofty. The U.S. Department of Agriculture placed 2024 U.S. corn yield at 183.1 bushels per acre and soybeans at 53.2 bpa, both above pre-report trade estimates of 182.1 and 52.5, respectively.

Aug 12 - Algeria purchased 630,000 tons of Black Sea wheat at the tender (OAIC)
The Algerian state agency OAIC bought about 630,000 tons of flour wheat at a tender last week at a price of $250.5-252/t C&F, Reuters reports with reference to traders from the EU.
According to the terms of the tender, shipments of wheat from the main supply regions, including Europe, will take place in October, and from South America or Australia - in September.

Algeria does not disclose the details of the tender, so the final data on volumes and prices may change. Market participants believe that the low price may indicate the purchase of wheat from the Russian Federation or other Black Sea countries.

Algeria is among the top five buyers of Russian wheat. In 2023/24 MR, it imported about 2.3 million tons of wheat.
We will remind that at the previous tender on July 18, Algeria purchased 700-750 thousand tons of wheat, presumably of Ukrainian, Russian and Bulgarian origin, at a price of $241-244/t C&F.

Aug 12 - High hopes in Israel for 'super hero' cocoa that survived frontline conditions
Farming can develop in mysterious ways. Israeli researchers learned about that when the war in Gaza seemed to have all but wrecked their work on a more resilient strain of the cocoa plant that could help alleviate a global shortage of the beans. Just days after Israel's agriculture research centre, the Volcani Institute, sent 140 seedlings to a facility in southern Israel to study how this tropical plant could be grown in dry conditions, the area came under attack by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas.

Aug 09 - Ukrainian Weekly Agri Commodity Report ( SPIKE BROKERS )

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @186$
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jan @188$
· FCA corn w. the border of Ukraine, Jan-Feb @180€
· FCA corn w. border of Ukraine, birch @181€
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Aug @200$
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Aug @180$
· sunflower DAP center. Bulgaria, sickle @470$
· sunflower DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @487$ with VAT
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Veres @402$
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @395$

- Ukraine
· As of 08.08 in Ukraine were collected: wheat - 20.9 million tons, barley - 5.2 million tons, peas - 457 thousand tons, rape - 3.3 million tons.
- Europe
· Imports of grains and oilseeds to the EU from 01.07.24 to 04.08.24 amounted to: wheat - 607 thousand tons (last year 543 thousand tons), corn - 2.1 million tons (1.6 million tons), barley - 209 thousand tons (191 thousand tons), soybeans - 1.1 million tons (1.3 million tons), rape - 353 thousand tons (234 thousand tons), sunflower - 33 thousand tons (29 thousand tons).
· Imports of products of processing of crops amounted to: soybean meal - 1.7 million tons (1.6 million tons), rapeseed meal - 13 thousand tons (77 thousand tons), sunflower meal - 146 thousand tons (237 thousand tons), soybean oil - 39 thousand tons (99 thousand tons), rapeseed oil - 3 thousand tons (31 thousand tons), palm oil - 228 thousand tons (340 thousand tons).

- CORN
Corn of the new crop is in stable demand. Delivery for October-January was traded to ports of $184-188, and on the border with the EU, the bidding took place at €180-181, with loading in wagons with delivery in January-March. Producers, assessing the potential of the crop after the July temperature stress, gradually form a forward sales book and organize logistics.

- WHEAT
The spread between forage and food wheat remains at up to $20. Producers are holding back sales in anticipation of higher prices, leading to the accumulation of deferred supply and creating additional pressure on the price of wheat in September, which is traditionally the period of the lowest prices.

- RAPE
The stock prices for rapeseed have already twice sharply decreased from the peak of 510€, reached on July 5. The similarity of this year's fluctuations with last year causes traders doubts about the possible further increase in prices. The only supporting factor for dollar prices remains the devaluation of the US currency against the euro, which helps keep prices at a stable level in the direction of ports.

- SUNFLOWER
The new sunflower crop is traded in the range of $460-490 with VAT, depending on the region of delivery to the plant. Processors are actively competing for raw materials to ensure the smooth operation of their capacities at the beginning of the new season.

- SOYA
The spread between GMOs and non-GMOs of soy remains at around $40. Soya is actively traded both in the direction of ports and on the western border. At the same time, in the direction of Europe, there is an increased demand for non-GMO soybeans.

Aug 09 - Strategie Grains reduces EU wheat forecasts on poor yields
Strategie Grains has sharply lowered its monthly forecast for European Union soft wheat output and exports to its lowest in six years, citing worse than expected yields in rain-hit France and Germany. The consultancy's projection for the EU's main cereal crop was reduced to 116.5 million metric tons, down from the 122.3 million tons forecast in July and now 8.4% below last season's crop.

Aug 09 - Cocoa swollen shoot disease worsening in Ghana, poses long-term threat
Ghana's cocoa sector faces a long-term threat from worsening swollen shoot disease as recent data indicates the world's second largest grower of the bean is not managing to contain the outbreak, traders and experts said. Spread by small insects called mealybugs that eat leaves, buds and flowers, swollen shoot initially allows trees to produce, but at a reduced rate. After five to 10 years however, it kills them.

Aug 08 - Cooler weather threatens Argentine wheat with frost, exchange says
Cooler-than-expected temperatures in Argentina next week could trigger frosts and damage crops in one of the world's largest grain-exporting nations, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Wednesday. Wheat is likely to be the worst-hit major crop, as farmers in the South American nation have yet to start planting their corn and soybean crops for the 2024/25 season.

Aug 08 - Cocoa prices to head higher by end-2024 amid record deficit
Cocoa prices are expected to continue heading higher this year due to persistent supply shortages that will leave them at more than double last year's levels by the end of 2024, a Reuters poll of 12 traders and analysts showed on Wednesday. London cocoa was seen ending the year at 7,600 pounds a metric ton, up 40% from Tuesday's close and 125% higher than at the end of 2023, according to the poll's median forecast.

Aug 07 - Egypt bets big with historic 3.8 million metric ton wheat tender
Egypt's state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, announced on Tuesday a massive tender for 3.8 million metric tons of wheat to cover imports between October 2024 and April 2025, its largest ever according to traders. Egypt has been one of the world's largest wheat importers, mainly to provide subsidised bread for tens of millions of its people. GASC alone imports some 5.5 million metric tons of wheat annually for bread subsidies.

Aug 07 - China July soybean imports rise 2.9% on-year, customs data show
China's soybean imports rose 2.9% in July from a year earlier, spurred by lower prices and fears of heightened trade tensions between Beijing and the U.S. if Donald Trump returns as president. The world's top soybean buyer imported 9.85 million metric tons in July, customs data showed on Wednesday, less than traders' expectations that arrivals would reach 12 million-13 million tons.

Aug 06 - Heatwave could cut Ukraine corn harvest by 6 mln tons, producers say
A record heatwave in July across most Ukrainian regions may reduce the 2024 corn harvest by about 6 million metric tons from last year's level, Ukrainian producers' group the Ukrainian Agrarian Council (UAC) has warned. It gave no forecast for the resultant harvest total but its prediction is in line with a forecast last week from the Ukrainian grain traders union UGA, which foresaw a 2024 corn harvest of 23.4 million tons compared with 29.6 million in 2023.

Aug 06 - Bunge, ADM to benefit as US farmers sell cheap crops in 'haul of shame'
A spike in bargain-basement crop sales by U.S. farmers needing to make room in storage bins for autumn harvests could boost profitability at grain handlers such as Archer-Daniels-Midland and Bunge Global. Both companies, which trade and process soybeans and corn and benefit from geographic differences in supply, recently flagged slow farmer selling as a drag on second-quarter earnings.

Aug 05 - Malaysian palm oil stocks seen down, first time in four months
Palm oil inventories in Malaysia, the world's second-biggest producer, is expected to drop in July for the first time after three consecutive months of rise, a Reuters survey showed on Monday. Malaysia's palm oil stocks were seen at 1.80 million metric tons, down 1.17% from June-end, according to the median estimate of 11 traders, planters and analysts polled by Reuters.

Aug 05 - World food prices ease slightly in July, UN says
The United Nations world food price index eased slightly in July according to data released on Friday, with a decline in the index for cereals offset in part by increases for meat, vegetable oils and sugar. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization's price index, which tracks the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 120.8 points in July, down from 121.0 in June. The June reading was revised after initially being given as 120.6.

Aug 05 - Australia exports 39,718t chickpeas, 140,549t lentils in June (Grain Central)

- AUSTRALIA exported 39,718 tonnes of chickpeas and 140,549t of lentils in June, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
The chickpea figure is down 9 percent from the May total of 43,849t, despite the uptick in exports to India and Nepal.
Drops for the month included Pakistan, down 2698t, and the United Arab Emirates, down 3500t.

- Lentil exports in June were up 8pc from the May figure of 130,295t, with rises over the month of 5453t from Bangladesh, 2578t from Egypt and 2905t from Nepal the main drivers.

- Shipping stems indicate bulk exports of lentils have slowed right down this month to indicate Australia’s rundown on stocks as Canadian new-crop hits the supply chain.
On chickpeas, slots booked indicate around 300,000t in bulk alone will be shipped in the coming quarter as harvest rolls south from Central Queensland to northern New South Wales.
Chickpea crop conditions are very good to excellent in all major desi-growing regions.
Conditions for lentils are generally less favourable, with some districts in South Australia and Victoria needing good rain in coming weeks to ensure average yields are achieved.

Aug 02 - Ukrainian Weekly Agri Report (SPIKE BROKERS)

- Sold in a week
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Aug @200$
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Aug @182$
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Dec-Sich @189$->186$
· rape NE-GMO DAP Odesa, Ukraine, Aug @485$
· sunflower DAP Odessa, Ukraine, heather @495$ with VAT
· Soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct-Dec @390$

- Ukraine
· The indicator of exports from Ukraine of cereals, oilseeds, as well as processed products for July is: corn - 1 560.2 thousand mt, wheat - 1 545.4 thousand mt, barley - 580.8 thousand mt, soybean - 226.6 thousand mt, rape - 277.7 thousand mt, sunflower - 3.5 thousand mt, sunflower oil - 438.9 thousand mt, soybean oil - 29.6 thousand mt, rapeseed oil - 10.8 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 109 thousand mt. mt, soybean cake - 63.4 thousand mt.
· UGA updated the potential yield of grains and oilseeds to 71.8 million tons, which is 2.8 million tons less than the previous estimate.

- CORN
The 2023 corn harvest continues to be traded, but there is a low activity of market participants, as the focus has shifted to corn of the new crop. Given the reduced demand from external buyers, the liquidity has decreased slightly and on CPT conditions. Buyers' price offers are currently in the range of 178-184$ CPT ports, depending on the delivery period.
The demand for corn from European buyers remains inactive. In the direction of the western border of Ukraine corn can be sold at 175-185€ FCA.

- WHEAT
The trading activity during the week was significant against the background of wheat price correction in deep-sea ports. Buyers' attention is mainly focused on feed wheat for spot deliveries in the range of 178-182$, depending on the protein content. The spread between food and forage wheat remains about 20$.

- RAPE
A significant fluctuation in the price of rapeseed on MATIF during the week increased the number of offers and on the physical market. The rapeseed continues to be actively traded; from the buyers in the direction of the port, the price offers are in the range of 470-495$ CPT ports. In the regions prices fluctuate within 440-460$ CPT elevator/plant, equivalent without VAT. The demand of European buyers remains stable.

- SUNFLOWER
The new sunflower crop demonstrates significant trading activity. The main direction of implementation is the domestic market with delivery to the plants at 450-475$ with VAT. In the direction of ports prices are within 430-435$ CPT. Demand from Europe is also observed, but the supply is quite limited.

- SOYA
Soybean prices remained unchanged compared to last week. Trade is concentrated more towards Ukrainian ports. Demand on the western border is not very active, as many buyers have covered the forward need in the past three months and are currently less active in procurement.

Aug 02 - Russia maintains grain harvest forecast despite bad weather
Russia has maintained its official grain harvest forecast for this year at 132 million metric tons despite adverse weather conditions across many grain-producing regions, said Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev, who oversees the agriculture sector. Extreme weather events such as early spring frosts, floods, and summer heat have affected this year's harvest outlook in some key producing areas of Russia, the world's biggest wheat exporter. 

 

Aug 02 - Moderate rains likely to boost Argentina's wheat crop in coming days
Moderate rains in Argentina's farming heartland over the next few days are expected to benefit the 2024/25 wheat crop, which has suffered from dry and cold conditions, the Buenos Aires grain exchange (BdeC) said Thursday. Argentina is a major global wheat exporter and, according to the grains exchange, planting for the current agricultural campaign was completed last week, covering 6.3 million hectares nationwide.

 

Aug 01 - USDA June soy crush estimated at 184.584 million bushels, analysts sayThe U.S. soybean crush likely slowed in June to 5.538 million short tons, or 184.584 million bushels, analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Thursday. If the average of eight estimates is realized, it would be down 3.8% from the 192.0 million bushels crushed in May but up 5.8% from the June 2023 crush of 174.5 million bushels. 

 

Aug 01 - Grain traders union UGA cuts Ukraine 2024 grain and oilseeds crop forecast
Ukrainian grain traders union UGA cut Ukraine's 2024 combined grain and oilseeds crop forecast by 2.8 million metric tons to 71.8 million tons due to a heatwave, the union said on Wednesday. UGA said the 2024 harvest could include 23.4 million tons of corn, 19.8 million tons of wheat, 4.95 million tons of barley, 12.8 million tons of sunseed, 4.8 million tons of soybeans and 4.3 million tons of rapeseed.

Jul 31 - Domestic wheat prices soar for first time since May (SovEkon)
- By the end of last week, the prices of class 4 Russian wheat (with protein 12.5%; excluding VAT) in deep-sea ports rose by 1,000 rubles compared to last week to 15,500-16,000 rubles per ton. This is the strongest growth since late May. Russian quotes were supported by the growth in demand from exporters.

- Grade 4 wheat quotations in the South rose by 650 rubles to 14,550 rubles per ton, while in the Center - remained unchanged by 11,600 rubles per ton.

- Export demand for wheat in the South has increased in recent weeks amid strong sales. As of July 30, the volume of concluded sales contracts amounted to 3.2 million tons, compared to 2.6 million tons a month earlier.

- In July, Russia also actively sold wheat on tenders. In a July tender, Egypt's GASC purchased 720,000 tons of Russian wheat. Algeria's OAIC agency has purchased 600,000-800,000 tons of wheat, part of which will be supplied from Russia.

- SovEkon estimates July wheat exports at 3.2m tons, compared to 4.5m tons a year earlier and 3.0m tons on average over five years.

Jul 31 - Rain-hit French wheat crop could plunge to 26 mln T, producers say
France's main wheat crop may only reach 26 million metric tons this year, a level not seen since the 1980s, as harvest results confirm a plunge in yields following months of heavy rain, producers group AGPB said on Tuesday. A poor harvest in France, the European Union's biggest grain producer, has been widely anticipated after the wet weather cut autumn planting before hampering crop development.

Jul 31 - ADM misses profit estimates on US demand dip and lower crush margins
Global grains merchant Archer-Daniels-Midland Co shares dropped 2% on Tuesday after the company missed Wall Street expectations for second-quarter profit, which were hit by lower soy crush margins and waning demand for U.S. crops. Such lower profits reflect the challenge global grain merchants and oilseed processors now face, as crop prices hover at nearly four-year lows due to a hefty global stockpiles of corn and soybeans.

Jul 30 - Freezing temperatures threaten Argentina's wheat crops
Freezing temperatures in Argentina's main agricultural region on Monday aggravated the condition of the 2024/25 wheat crop, which is already suffering from the impact of a major drought, the Rosario grains exchange said in a report. Argentina is a key global wheat exporter, but due to a significant lack of rainfall in its agricultural core, the grains exchange earlier this month reduced its forecast for the area planted with wheat by 2.9% to 6.7 million hectares.

Jul 30 - Strategie Grains cuts EU rapeseed and sunseed crop forecasts again
Strategie Grains has again reduced its monthly forecasts for this year's rapeseed and sunflower seed harvests in the European Union as unfavourable weather continued to affect the bloc's main oilseed crops, the consultancy said. The firm cut its outlook for the EU's 2024 rapeseed harvest for the third time in a row.

Jul 29 - Only half of French soft wheat crop in good condition, FranceAgriMer says
Ratings of French soft wheat fell again last week to hit another eight-year low with now only half of the crop in good condition, while harvesting remained well behind average as wet weather throughout the cycle continued to weigh on crops. An estimated 50% of soft wheat was in good or excellent condition by July 22, down from 52% a week earlier and 78% a year ago, farm office FranceAgriMer said in cereal crop data.

Jul 29 - US court rejects EPA denials of 2022 small refinery biofuel waivers
A federal appeals court said on Friday it rejected the Environmental Protection Agency’s decision in 2022 to deny small oil refineries temporary waivers from the nation’s biofuels blending program, and sent the matter back to the agency for review. The decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia is a win for the refining industry, which has long opposed federal requirements under the Renewable Fuel Standard that they add biofuels such as corn-based ethanol into the nation’s fuel.

Jul 26 - Recent rains allow Argentina to complete wheat planting in main farmland
Recent rains have allowed Argentine farmers to finish wheat planting for the current harvesting season in the country's agricultural heartland, according to a report from the Buenos Aires grains exchange (BdeC) released on Thursday. While wheat planting is complete in all major farmland for the 2024/25 cycle, planting over 6.3 million hectares dedicated to the key grains crop nationwide is 98.5% complete, the weekly report from the BdeC showed.

Jul 26 - US spring wheat tour forecasts record North Dakota yield
Scouts on an annual North Dakota crop tour on Thursday projected that hard red spring wheat yields in the top-producing state will average 54.5 bushels per acre, the highest ever according to records going back to 1992. The figure was well above the Wheat Quality Council tour's 2023 estimate of 47.4 bushels per acre and the five-year average of 42 bushels per acre, excluding 2020.

Jul 25 - Crop tour forecasts record wheat yields in parts of North Dakota
U.S. spring wheat crops in northwest and north-central North Dakota are expected to produce the highest yields since at least 1994, the Wheat Quality Council said on an annual tour on Wednesday. Crop scouts estimated the average hard red spring wheat yield at 53.7 bushels per acre, up from 45.7 bushels in the same area last year. The five-year average for this part of the state is 40.02 bushels, excluding 2020 when no tour was held because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Jul 25 - Sugar market to have smaller surplus as Brazil crop falls, says broker
The global sugar market is expected to have a smaller-than-anticipated supply surplus in 2024/25 (Oct-Sept) despite rising production in Asia, due to a significant reduction on the Brazilian crop, broker StoneX said on Wednesday. StoneX cut its projection for Brazil's Centre-South sugar output by nearly 2 million metric tons to 40.5 million tons due to this year's lower quality of the sugarcane and a smaller-than-expected cane allocation to sugar production.

Jul 24 - US spring wheat tour forecasts record yields for southern North Dakota
Scouts on the first day of an annual U.S. crop tour on Tuesday projected spring wheat in southern and east-central North Dakota will produce the highest yields in tour records dating to 1994. The Wheat Quality Council tour said participants estimated an average hard red spring wheat yield of 52.5 bushels per acre, compared to the tour's day-one findings in 2023 of 48.1 bushels.

Jul 24 - EU 2024/25 soft wheat exports down 35% but French data still lacking
Soft wheat exports from the European Union since the start of the 2024/25 season in July had reached 1.44 million metric tons by July 21, down 35% from 2.21 million tons a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. EU barley exports for the first three weeks of 2024/25 totalled 533,177 tons, down 42% from 919,333 tons in the corresponding period in 2023/24.

Jul 23 - MARS cuts EU 2024 maize outlook after hot weather in southeast
European Union crop monitoring service MARS on Monday cut most of its forecasts for average grain yields in the EU this year, with the sharpest drop for maize and sunflower which suffered from hot and dry weather in the southeastern part of the bloc. Grain and oilseed crops have faced adverse yet contrasting weather this year with excessive rainfall in the north hurting winter cereals, notably wheat which is on track for its smallest crop since 2020, and drought in the south hurting summer crops.

Jul 23 - Brazil sugar production estimate cut by 300,000 tons, says broker
Brazil's sugar production in 2024/25 (April-March) was revised down by 300,000 metric tons on Monday to 41.3 million tons due to lower-than-expected cane allocation to produce sugar and poor cane quality, broker Hedgepoint Global Markets said. Hedgepoint's sugar analyst Livia Coda said in a note that mills are earmarking less cane to sugar production than initially estimated, due mainly to the lower quality of the crop compared to last season as well as to the quick pace of harvesting.

Jul 22 - China June soy imports from Brazil rise 2%, customs data show
China's soybean imports from Brazil rose 2.2% in June from a year earlier, data showed on Saturday, as Chinese buyers scooped up lower-priced South American beans. The world's biggest soybean buyer imported 9.72 million metric tons of the oilseed from Brazil last month, compared with 9.51 million tons a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

Jul 22 - Funds expand all-time bearish soy view and stage record meal sell-off - Braun
Speculators last week established another record net short in Chicago-traded soybeans as strong U.S. crop prospects and an oversupply of beans in China have dragged futures to near four-year lows. In the week ended July 16, money managers expanded their net short in CBOT soybean futures and options to a new high of 185,750 contracts from 172,605 a week earlier, and this was predominantly the result of new gross shorts.

Jul 19 - Ukrainian Agri Weekly report (SPIKE BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Dec @181$
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jul-Aug @198$
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct-letter @380$->370$
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jul @920$

- Ukraine
· For the 17 days of July, Ukraine exported: corn - 1,037 thousand tons, wheat - 785 thousand tons, barley - 266.7 thousand tons, soybean - 135.9 thousand tons, rape - 58.5 thousand tons, sunflower seeds - 188.1 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 260.7 thousand tons, soybean oil - 15.3 thousand tons.
· In July, Ukraine's total exports were directed to Europe - 46.6% or 1,399 thousand tons, to the Middle East and Asia - 48% or 1,443 thousand tons and other destinations - 5.3% or 159.2 thousand tons.
- Europe
· According to French farmers, grain yields in the 2024/25 season will decrease by 13-20% compared to previous average annual indicators due to bad weather.
- Brazil
· According to Conab, 74% of the second corn harvest in Brazil has already been harvested, which is much higher than last year's figure of 39% for the same period.

- CORN
Current spot demand for corn in the direction of Ukrainian ports is at 174-178$ CPT ports. At the same time, sellers are gradually shifting attention to the new crop, which returned to the levels of 175$+ CPT ports, which stimulated the restoration of the activity of fixation of forward contracts.
In the western direction, corn can be sold at a price of 165€ FCA border, loaded in the gondola, with delivery in October-December.

- WHEAT
Over the past week, there has been an active demand for food wheat, stabilizing prices in the range of 194-200$ on CPT ports, depending on the protein content. At the same time, the prices of feed wheat were adjusted to 171-175$ CPT; the spread between food and feed wheat rose again to 15-20$.
As of 18.07, 10.3 million tons of wheat were collected in Ukraine. Sellers focus on the implementation of forward contracts, against the background of which the activity of the supply of new supplies is not high.

- RAPE
The resumption of MATIF stock quotes over the past few days, after a significant fall last week, significantly intensified the offer. As of 18.07, the rape was threshed with 1.8 million tons. The harvesting campaign is in progress, affecting the growth of the supply. In the regions where prices for rapeseed for the last week are in the range of 21,000-21,700 UAH with VAT delivered to the elevator, there is a significant activity of trade. Prices in the direction of the ports and the western border were also rising and were in the range of 460-470$ CPT ports and 415-420€ FCA border.

- SOYA
Extremely arid weather has recently significantly deterred the implementation of soybeans, and sellers were in anticipation of the rains to formulate further plans for implementation. At the same time, the demand for oil was also in a state of search for stabilization levels. Currently, GMO soybean is traded at 365-370$ CPT ports and 350-355€ FCA border. The premium for NE-GMO quality increased to 20-25€; until recently it was about 10€.

Jul 19 - China faces soybean glut as peak US export season nears
China is facing an oversupply of soybeans as record high purchases boost stockpiles at a time when animal feed demand remains subdued, with prices of products such as soyoil and soymeal set to sink even lower. The soybean surplus also threatens to curb China's appetite for imports in the September-December period, the peak marketing season for U.S. beans, putting further pressure on prices already near four-year lows, traders and analysts said.

Jul 19 - Global sugar market looks headed towards surplus, analysts say
The global sugar market looks increasingly likely to have a supply surplus in the 2024/25 season (Oct-Sept), despite an expected smaller Brazilian crop, as analysts believe other regions will produce more than initially expected. Broker and supply chain services provider Czarnikow on Thursday adjusted upwards its view on global sugar production by 3.2 million metric tons to 189.7 million tons in 2024/25, the highest global output on record.

Jul 18 - Cooling prices chill drive to add wheat acres in US Corn Belt
A Biden administration drive to increase U.S. wheat plantings after the Ukraine war is faltering as wheat prices hover around four-year lows and exportable supplies continue to flow from the Black Sea region, curbing demand for American grain. Wheat acreage expanded last year as prices soared to a near record high after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. But U.S. plantings dropped nearly 5% this year, resuming a decades-long trend that has coincided with a more recent slide in the U.S. share of the global wheat export market.

Jul 18 - Does the market finally agree with USDA on US corn yield? - Braun
Grain industry participants in recent years have criticized the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s trendline U.S. corn yields since they have been too high versus final yields for five consecutive years now. Another complaint is that USDA’s trend corn yields have been exceeding previously observed records, and the 2024 trend of 181 bushels per acre follows suit, sitting some 3.7 bpa above last year’s all-time high.

Jul 18 - Russia ships first grain from new Baltic terminal
Russia has shipped its first grain from a new terminal at the Baltic Sea port of Ust-Luga, the Russian agricultural watchdog told Reuters, as the country seeks to diversify its grain export routes. The first shipment of 12,000 metric tons of grain was made in June from the Lugaport terminal, owned by the Russian private transport company Novotrans. LSEG data showed the shipment is destined for Cuba.

Jul 18 - Ukraine's grain exports reach 2 mln tons so far in 2024/25, ministry says
Ukraine's grain exports in the 2024/25 July-June season rose to almost 2 million metric tons by July 17 from 1.3 million tons at the same date a season earlier, agriculture ministry data showed on Wednesday. The volume included 732,000 tons of wheat, 1 million tons of corn and 254,000 tons of barley.

Jul 17 - Russian farmers fight to salvage harvest as major region cuts forecast
Under the sweltering sun and in temperatures of 50 degrees Celsius, farmers in the Rostov region, Russia's breadbasket, toil to salvage a harvest battered by heatwave, frosts and floods. Accounting for 11% of Russia's total grain harvest last year, Rostov is one of the key regions that Russia's agriculture ministry has said it is monitoring to make further adjustments to an already soft 2024 crop forecast.

Jul 17 - Colorado workers with bird flu toiled in heat, without effective protective gear
Colorado workers who contracted bird flu were working during extreme heat and under large fans, factors that made wearing protective equipment difficult and potentially contributed to their infections, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Tuesday. The CDC had previously confirmed four cases and a fifth presumptive positive case of bird flu among Colorado farm workers who were killing and disposing of chickens that had contracted the virus.

Jul 16 - Traders face $1 bln loss on faltering Ghana cocoa supply, sources say
Trading houses face losses of at least $1 billion on cocoa derivatives after major producer Ghana failed to deliver beans this year, forcing traders to liquidate short positions in a rallying market, six industry sources told Reuters. Global cocoa prices soared this year after bad weather, bean disease, smuggling and illegal gold mining reduced production and the volume of beans available in Ghana, the world's No.2 producer.

Jul 16 - US, Colorado probe additional H5N1 bird flu cases in poultry farm
Federal and state investigators in Colorado are investigating an outbreak of H5N1 bird flu on a poultry farm that has resulted in four confirmed human cases and a suspected case. The infections are the first reported cases in poultry workers in the United States since 2022.

Jul 15 - Kremlin, asked about possible resumption of Black Sea grain deal, says it does not rule anything out
Russia does not rule out any scenarios regarding the possible resumption of the now-defunct Black Sea grain deal, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Friday. On Thursday, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, speaking after a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said they had discussed navigational security in the Black Sea, including the grain deal.

Jul 15 - Funds build all-time net shorts in CBOT corn and soybeans - Braun
Speculators last week established record net short positions in both Chicago corn and soybean futures and options as prices tumble further amid ample supply outlooks. Money managers had reached record net shorts earlier this year, though new-crop CBOT corn and soybean futures have declined 10% and 7% since then, respectively.

Jul 12 - Ukrainian Weekly Agri Report (SPIKE_BROKERS)

Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, December letter @175$
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, aug @199$→197$
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, September @200$
· sunflower DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @430$ with VAT
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @402$
· soy NE-GMO ISCC DAP center. Hungary, a letter-chest @430€
· rape NE-GMO ISCC DAP cx. Ukraine, Jul-Aug @21'400 UAH→21'300 UAH

- Ukraine
· Ukraine seized a cargo ship that left the Crimean port with looted Ukrainian grain, according to the Ukrainian authorities. Markets reacted rapidly with the growth of quotations.
· As of 11.07 harvested early crops: wheat - 5 714 thousand tons, barley - 2 420 thousand tons, peas - 261 thousand tons, rape 1 085 thousand tons. For comparison, last year, these indicators as of 06.07 were: wheat - 172 thousand tons, barley - 805 thousand tons, peas - 45 thousand tons, rape 86 thousand tons.
- Europe
· The European Farm Group says wheat production in the EU is expected at 117.5 million tons, a 6.4% decrease from last year.

- CORN
Hot and dry weather in some eastern regions of Europe has contributed to the intensification of buyers of corn from Ukraine. The new corn crop was actively traded last week within 170-175$ DAP seaports or by parity 190-195$ FOB seaports for the period of November-December. The western border was traded at 170-175€ against buyers of 160-165€ FCA, loaded in the euro train for October-December.

- WHEAT
The activity of wheat sellers from Russia in the Middle East and North Africa markets limits the potential for price growth. Wheat with DAP shipping was traded at 175-183$ for feed wheat and 193-199$ for food wheat depending on protein content.

- BARLEY
Barley was traded within 163-165$ DAP in the direction of the ports of the Danube and 156-160$ DAP with delivery to the sea ports of Ukraine.

- RAPE
The rapeseed quotation on MATIF fulfilled its function by purchasing a significant rapeseed offer from sellers. After reaching a peak of €508 in August rapeseed futures at MATIF on Friday, prices dropped under pressure from offers of €30 per ton to €476 as of Thursday’s close. On the physical market in the direction of seaports, the price of rapeseed with oil content of 43% (without a premium) was traded within 465-470$ against 500-505$ on Friday. On the western border, the rapeseed was traded at 435€ for oil content of 43% (+ premium), loaded into a European train.

- SOYA
After a rapid decline in world prices for soybeans, a significant supply of soybean new crop in Ukraine adjusted the prices on the physical market to 20$ per ton in all directions. The new crop was traded in the direction of seaports at 375-380$ for GMO soy with a protein of 33%. In the direction of the western border soybeans GMO was traded in the range of 360-370€ delivery Ukrainian cars.

Jul 12 - China's June soybean imports up 10.7%, buyers focus on Brazil crop
China's soybean imports in June rose 10.7% from a year earlier, a Reuters' calculation of customs data showed on Friday, as buyers stocked up on cheaper Brazilian beans ahead of the North American export season in the fourth quarter. The world's biggest soybean buyer imported 11.11 million metric tons in June, compared with 10 million tons a year earlier. 

 

Jul 12 - Brazil crop agency ups corn output view, keeps exports unchanged
Farmers in Brazil, one of the world's largest food producers, are expected to harvest 90 million metric tons of second corn in the present cycle, nearly two million tons more than forecast last month, crop agency Conab said on Thursday. Farmers are still reaping their second corn, which is planted after soybeans are harvested in the same fields and is mainly exported in the second half. 

 

Jul 11 - EU farming group sees soft wheat crop falling to 117.5 million tons European Union farming association Copa-Cogeca on Wednesday forecast that EU production of common wheat, or soft wheat, will fall by more than 6% this year as declines in countries like France outweigh an expected recovery in Spain. In a harvest outlook, Copa-Cogeca projected the soft wheat crop at 117.5 million metric tons against 125.5 million last year. 

 

Jul 11 - Bird flu response in Michigan sparks COVID-era worry on farms Some dairy farmers are resisting Michigan's nation-leading efforts to stop the spread of bird flu for fear their incomes will suffer from added costs and hurt rural America. The government's restrictions, which include tracking who comes and goes from farms, are rekindling unwanted memories of COVID-19 in Martin and other small towns in central Michigan.

Jul 10 - Export duty on Russian wheat declines 6.4% as of July 10, barley and corn remain zero ( Interfax-Agriculture Ministry )

- The export duty on Russian wheat has declined 6.4% to 1.701.3 rubles per tonne as of July 10 from 1.818.2 rubles per tonne during the previous duty period, the Agriculture Ministry said. The respective duties on barley and corn have remained zero.

Duty rates are based on indicative prices of $235.40 per tonne for wheat against $236.30 per tonne the previous duty period, $175.90 per tonne for barley versus $173.70 per tonne, and $188.40 per tonne for corn against $180.60 per tonne.

The duties are valid until July 16, inclusive.

The Russian government on June 2, 2021, implemented a grain damper mechanism that stipulates floating duties on exports of wheat, corn, and barley, as well as returning the funds received from the duties in order to subsidize agricultural producers. The duties are calculated weekly on the basis of price indicators based on the value of export contracts registered on the Moscow Exchange .

The government on June 30, 2022, adopted a resolution to convert the duties from dollars into rubles as of July 2022. The duty totals 70% of the difference between the baseline price and the indicative price.

The baseline price was initially 15,000 rubles per tonne for wheat and 13,875 rubles per tonne for barley and corn, respectively. The government hiked the baseline price to 17,000 rubles per tonne and 15,875 rubles per tonne, respectively, as of June 2023, and then raised the baseline price once again to 18,000 rubles per tonne for wheat and to 16,875 rubles per tonne for barley and corn, respectively, as of June 28, 2024.

Jul 10 - India boosts Russian grain imports as Modi thanks Putin for fertilizer supply
India increased its imports of Russian grain and grain products 22 fold, well above other major importers, in the 2023/24 agricultural season, according to data released during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Moscow. Economic cooperation between the two BRICS members and major agricultural powers is high on the agenda of the visit.

Jul 10 - Robusta coffee prices surge to record high as supplies tighten
Robusta coffee prices surged to a record high on Tuesday with the global market tightened by a slowdown in shipments from top producer Vietnam. The price of robusta beans has risen 63% this year, peaking on Tuesday at $4,667 a metric ton on the London-based ICE Futures Europe market.

Jul 09 - US corn, soy, wheat ratings top expectations despite flooding
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased the percentage of corn and soy crops in good-to-excellent condition on Monday, topping analyst expectations despite heavy storms in the western Midwest. With both at 68% good-to-excellent, the ratings for both crops are the highest for this time of year since 2020.

Jul 09 - Worse than expected French barley crop raises concern over wheat
The ongoing winter barley harvest in France, the European Union's largest grain grower, is showing worse than expected yields after poor weather hurt crops, raising additional concerns for the upcoming wheat crop. Wet weather and soggy fields in France since the autumn delayed plantings, hurt plant development and increased crop disease, prompting observers to regularly cut their grain crop estimates.

Jul 08 - French soft wheat yield seen plunging to eight-year low
This year's soft wheat harvest in France is expected to show a yield at an eight-year low and 11% below the 10-year average because of particularly wet weather, crop institute Arvalis and grain industry group Intercereales said on Friday. The 2024 soft wheat yield in France, the European Union's largest grower of the cereal, is seen at 6.4 metric tons per hectare (t/ha), down 13% from last year, they said in a joint statement.

Jul 08 - Philippines wants to boost rice cooperation with Vietnam to ensure food security
The Philippines wants to boost cooperation on rice with Vietnam to ensure its food security, Philippine Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel said during a visit to Vietnam over the weekend. Laurel visited Vietnam's Mekong Delta province of An Giang, one of the key rice-producing areas of the Southeast Asian country, the province's People's Committee said in a statement on Monday.

Jul 08 - Australia exports 1,596,844t wheat in May (Lachstock - Grain Central)

AUSTRALIA exported 1,596,844 tonnes of wheat and no durum in May, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
The May total is down 14 percent from the 1,848,534t, including 3801t of durum, shipped in April, and close to half the 3.3 million tonnes (Mt) exported in May 2023.

In containerised exports, Malaysia on 34,814t, Taiwan on 23,035t and Thailand on 21,815t were the three largest markets.

In bulk, The Philippines on 314,857t followed by Indonesia on 244,111t and South Korea on 164,780t were the biggest markets for May-shipped wheat, followed by Yemen on 155,901t.

According to Lachstock Consulting’s most recent wheat supply-and-demand report released June 28, Australia is expected to export less than 1Mt of wheat in June, which would be the lowest monthly volume since November 2020. Australia’s bulk wheat exports to China have trended down sharply in recent months, with the May total at 116,285t less than one quarter of the 516,295t shipped in April. This indicates China’s switch to new-crop Northern Hemisphere grain, including its own.
“The screws keep tightening on the major exporters’ balance sheets, with the USDA cutting Russian production by 5Mt in June and Ukraine and EU by 1.5Mt each,” the Lachstock report said.
“The USDA offset the production cuts by lowering global feed use by over 4Mt,.
“Global ending stocks were lowered by a further 1.3Mt to 252.3Mt, the lowest ending-stocks number since 2014-15, and when you exclude China, you get the lowest ending stocks since 2007-08.”

The size of the Russian crop has been hotly debated and after the initial panic over the dry spring and a number of frost events resulting in up to 10Mt in production cuts, some estimates are now being revised back up.
“The range is wide, with estimates anywhere from 75Mt to 85Mt.
“We are unlikely to know the true size of the crop until we get through the 2024-25 export program.”
Lachstock referenced Russian offers in the latest GASC tender to supply Egypt were US$38/t lower than the previous tender, suggesting Russia has “plenty of grain to move”.

Jul 05 - Argentina's soybean harvest ends at five-year record
The Argentine 2023/24 soybean season ended with a final harvest of 50.5 million tons, the highest volume recorded in the last five years, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said on Thursday, even after a severe summer heat wave dried crops. The exchange had initially anticipated a crop of 52.5 million tons. "The soybean harvest is considered finished," the exchange said in a weekly report, adding that the average yield hit 29.9 quintals (2.99 tons) per hectare, representing the second-highest level in the last five seasons.

Jul 05 - Tunisia offers bilateral grain purchase deal to Russia, Agroexport says
Tunisia has offered Russia a bilateral grain purchase agreement with a fixed price range and volume, Russian state agricultural export agency Agroexport said. Agroexport stated that the proposal was made during a meeting between Russian exporters and Salwa Benhadid Zouari, the head of Tunisia's state agency, the Office des Céréales.

Jul 05 - Ukrainian Weekly Agri Report (SPIKE_BROKERS)

- Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Dec @170$
· wheat 11.5pro DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Sep @195$
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Sep @185$
· yellow peas DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jul @283$
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Oct @402$
· soybean NE-GMO DAP border of Hungary, heather-yellow @390€
· rape NE-GMO ISCC DAP central Germany, heather-yellow @467€

- Ukraine:
- Total exports of grain, oil and other agricultural crops in June amounted to 5.345 million tons, including: corn - 2.808 million tons, wheat - 976 thousand tons, soybeans - 178 thousand tons, barley - 105 thousand tons, rape - 24 thousand tons, sunflower - 5 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 443 thousand tons, soybean oil - 28 thousand tons, cake and meal - 463 thousand tons.
- Ukraine expects a 24/25 season reduction in total exports of grains and oilseeds to 44.5 million tons (-22% compared to the 23/24 season).
- The largest decrease in exports in the season 24/25 is expected: wheat to 12 million tons (-34% compared to the season 23/24), corn to 22.5 million tons (-23%).
- In June, Ukraine's total exports were distributed: to Europe - 50.2% or 2.682 million tons, to the Middle East and Asia - 43.6% or 2.330 million tons, and other destinations - 332 thousand tons.

- Europe:
- On July 1, the EU Council entered into force the decision to increase duties on imports of grain, oil and processed products from Russia and Belarus.
- As of July 1, Ukraine has almost exhausted the annual quota of duty-free import of corn to Europe. 8,171,287 tonnes have been imported from Ukraine to the EU since the beginning of January 2024. Threshold for 2024. - 11,155,449.04 t.

- CORN
Corn market conditions began to attract more buyers. The old crop was traded at 165-170 $ in ports with delivery in July. The new crop was traded at 170 $ November-December to sea ports. The western border was traded in the range of 155-160 € loaded into a euro train. In the direction of Mon. Italy buyers bought a new crop of corn at the level of 200-205 € delivered cars. Hungary traded corn at 175-178€ FCA.

- WHEAT
The total decline in wheat production in Ukraine, pF and Europe will be about 20 million tons in 2024. Wheat quotes grew by an average of $ 5. Expectations of buyers for feed wheat - 180-183 $, for wheat with a protein of 10% - 185 $, and the food is traded at 190-199 $ in the direction of seaports with delivery in July-August.

- BARLEY
Prices for barley stabilized and began to grow from 150-155 $ to 155-162 $ in the direction of seaports.

- RAPE
As prices increase, buyers reduce appetites, and sellers reduce the offer. Sellers were looking for a queue, ready for sale after stopping the rise in prices. We are waiting for the moment of the falling market, when buyers usually disappear. Some European processors are already covered by December 2024, the rest is purchased for October-November. Prices rose under the influence of the weather in Canada.

- SOYA
Ukraine expects exports to increase by 1 million tons in the 2024/25 season relative to last year. Manufacturers actively sell soy in all directions. In the direction of the border contracts were concluded in the range of 382-400 € DAP for GMO soy.

Jul 04 - Brazil corn exports gather pace as soy season loses momentum
Brazilian corn exports for July were estimated at 3.4 million metric tons, a 2.4 million tons rise compared to June, as the shipment season gathers pace and soy exports lose
momentum, grains traders lobby Anec said on Wednesday. If confirmed, corn exports for
the month would be around 2.5 million tons below July of last year, when Brazil harvested a record second-corn harvest and China was more avidly buying the cereal from the South American nation.  

Jul 04 - Brazil ag minister says auction to import rice 'not necessary'
The Brazilian government will no longer need to buy imported rice, Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro told a local TV channel on Wednesday, after the plan attracted flak from local farmers. "Prices have already dropped," Favaro said, adding the government will continue monitoring the market. "As there is no speculation, in my opinion, new auctions are not necessary."

Jul 03 - Brazil 2023/2024 second-corn crop forecast raised to 100.5 million T, Agroconsult says
Brazilian second-corn farmers are expected to reap 100.5 million metric tons of the cereal in the 2023/24 cycle, 9.9% less than the last season but more than initially projected by consultancy Agroconsult ahead of a field expedition. Brazil's second corn, which is being harvested, represents about three-fourths of the total annual output and is planted after soybeans are reaped in the same fields.

Jul 03 - India's June palm oil imports rise to 6-month high on lower prices
India's palm oil imports rose by 3% in June from the previous month to reach the highest level in six months on robust demand from refiners for upcoming festivals and as the oil traded at a discount to rival oils, five dealers told Reuters. Higher palm oil purchases by India, the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils, could support the benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures that are trading near their highest level in more than two months.

 

Jul 03 - South Korea’s NOFI buys up to 60,000 T soymeal, traders say
Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased up to 60,000 metric tons of soymeal on Tuesday, European traders said. If sourced from the United States or South America then 60,000 tons should be supplied or 50,000 tons if sourced from China, they said.

Jul 03 - Jordan made no purchase in tender for 120,000 T wheat, traders say
Jordan's state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday, European traders said. Offers were regarded as too high. Participants were believed to be Cargill, CHS, Viterra, Al Dahra, Ameropa and Buildcom, they said.

Jul 02 - China poised for record July soybean imports on low prices, Trump trade fears
China is likely to import record volumes of soybeans in July, drawn by lower prices and the prospect of Donald Trump returning as president and reigniting trade tensions between Beijing and the U.S., which was once China's top supplier of the oilseed. The world's biggest soybean importer has booked higher volumes in recent weeks, traders and analysts said.

Jul 02 - US corn ratings tick lower after Midwest floods, soy steady
The condition of the U.S. corn crop deteriorated in the latest week while national soybean ratings held steady after floods swamped portions of the northwestern Midwest, U.S. government data released on Monday showed. The ratings for both corn and soybeans remained the highest for this time of year since 2020, and corn and soy futures fell sharply in June on oversupply concerns.

Jul 01 - Argentina soybean sales stall in June as currency gap widens
Argentine farmers' soybean sales to commercial buyers stalled in June, the head of the country's crushing and export chamber (CIARA-CEC) told Reuters, falling 45% from May's sales as a weakening peso in informal exchange markets led farmers to hold onto their stocks of the oilseed. The South American country is one of the world's top soy suppliers and jostles with Brazil as the No. 1 exporter for processed soyoil and soy meal, which are used in vegetable oil and animal feed. June full-month soybean sales figures have not been previously reported.

Jul 01 - US corn-planting estimate increases from March, USDA says
U.S. farmers planted more corn than the government forecast in March and less soybeans, U.S. Agriculture Department data showed on Friday. The estimate helped drive corn futures to contract lows, as larger-than-expected plantings would add to the biggest U.S. grain supplies in years.