Grains, Seeds, Vegoils, Meals, Softs, Agri News

Oct 04  - EU Agri market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- N. Korea flinging nuclear capable rockets over Japan, Russia moving theirs to the Ukraine boarder, just another Tuesday in 2022…
- this all takes the headlines meanwhile in a more practical sense Algeria bought 300kt of wheat (maybe more) that is largely assumed to be the cheapest wheat on offer - Russian.
- Matif not liking this.
- While Canada's rapeseed is recovering its relative value is being held up by the same winds of demand from the US biodiesel sector that has been supporting beanoil. - Stocks are gapping higher this morning with hints that recent weakeness in commodities and freight can be catalysts for weaker inflation numbers in coming weeks and the weaker inflation reduces the upward pressure on interest rates and who knows maybe it re-stimulates QE mechanisms. -
- China remains a conundrum, how good/bad is their harvest really because lots of mixed interpretations there how bad or otherwise is their property market woes.
- EU gas prices continue to decline as LNG supplies continue to flow and demand continues to wane as winter is slow to arrive.
- The political impact of rich EU countries hoovering up world LNG at the expense of poorer nations the next conversation.

Oct 04 - Rains slow Brazil's new soy crop planting, consultancy says
Excess rains in some areas of Brazil have slowed sowing of the country's 2022/2023 soybean crop, according to agribusiness consultancy AgRural on Monday. As of last Thursday, the total area planted with the oilseed reached 3.8% in the world's largest producer of soybeans. This compares with 4.1% a year ago, according to AgRural. 

Oct 04 - India's Sept palm oil imports jump to 1-yr high of 1.2 mln T
India's imports of palm oil jumped in September to their highest in a year, boosted by strong demand for the tropical oil ahead of the festival season and a steep discount to rival oils, six dealers told Reuters on Tuesday. Greater buying could help top producer Indonesia cut swelling inventories and support benchmark Malaysian palm oil prices, which have nearly halved from this year's record highs.

Oct 03  - Ukrainian sun meal prices remain firm at ports (IHSmarkit)
- Sun meal prices up USD35.00/tonne to USD160-185/tonne
- 943,000 hectares of the sunflower seed area harvested

- Ukrainian prices of sunflower meal have been growing since the beginning of September, with bid prices increasing by an average of USD35.00/tonne to USD160-185/tonne on an CPT basis as of September 30, according to APK-Inform. Prices are supported by higher trade activity amid the greater shipments, mainly through unblocked ports of Odesa, along with stronger foreign demand. Meanwhile, Ukrainian farmers harvested 943,000 hectares of the sunflower seed area, for a production of 1.56 million tonnes for an average yield of 1.66 tonnes/hectare.

- On the other hand, state-owned rail company Ukrzaliznytsia transported 2.72 million tonnes of grains for export between September 1-28, according to Deputy СЕО on Logistics at Delta Wilmar, Valerii Tkachov. Tkachov added that the transportation of grains for export may reach 3 million tonnes by the end of September.

- According to Ukrzaliznytsia data, a total of 808,000 tonnes of grain were transferred through western borders, while another 1.92 million tonnes were transported to ports.

Oct 3 - Forecast of heavy rains in October raises concern about India's rice, wheat crops
India is likely to receive above-average rainfall in October, an official with the state-run weather office said on Friday, posing risks for summer-sown crops such as rice and the planting of wheat. Monthly rainfall is expected at 115% of the long-term average, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department, told a virtual news conference.

Oct 3 - Nestle to stop sourcing from Indonesian palm oil producer AAL
Food giant Nestle plans to stop sourcing from subsidiaries of Astra Agro Lestari (AAL), a major Indonesian palm oil producer accused by environmental groups of land and human rights abuses. The move comes as multinationals face increased reputational and legal pressure from consumers and governments to clean up their global supply chains in the fight against climate change.

Oct 03  - EU Agri Market pre open Comments
- Last week we had China on the brink of collapse as Xi coup rumours flooded the market, this week you can choose from the runoff elections in Brazil between the hard right and hard left, the imminent demise of Credit Suisse and/or Deutsche bank or if you like consistency the collapse of either Russia or the EU.
- If Credit Suisse/Deutsche fail one presumes the echoes of 2008 will not instil confidence in owning anything, including commodities.
- This time of the year has a nice remind of seasonal rhythms to it as the Northern hemisphere corn and soybean crops are being harvested Southern hemisphere crops are being planted.
- The US is dominated disrupted river logistics as EU river logistics ease.
- Demand erosion in the gas market is expected to be significant even if temperature fall into winter.
- The other interesting takeaway from last week’s energy conference is that ALL EU member states say they will be "ok" as long as they can import any deficits from neighbour member states....the euro had a solid week last week but the CS/DB backdrop isn’t positive.
- Russian wheat is cheap, rapeseed is also cheap now that the slugs ate half our crop!

Sep 30  - Barge costs soar as low water levels threaten US corn, soybean exports (AgriCensus)

- Water levels on the key Mississippi river in the US have fallen sharply recently due to droughts, cutting back the tonnage barges can load and pressuring costs at the US Gulf grains and oilseeds export hub, market sources have told Agricensus. The Gulf is the main export hub in the US for grains and oilseeds and most volumes arrive through the Mississippi river in barges loaded inland.
“[This] is a very large issue,” senior grain and oilseed commodity analyst at Futures International Terry Reilly told Agricensus.

- Low water levels have been forcing barges to load up to 40% less volumes to reduce the draught and pass through shallower parts of the river. This comes as the US approaches the peak of its corn and soybean season, with harvest works about to start. Costs to transport grains and oilseeds down the Mississippi river have soared nearly 80% since the beginning of September and over 150% when compared to costs reported in the beginning of August, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Rains are needed to ease down transportation constraints in the Mississippi river but if volumes do not increase water levels sufficiently over the coming weeks US exporters may face some headwinds.
“The forecast for the next week to 10 days doesn't offer much prospect of enough rain to make a difference. What is really needed are heavy rains from Saint Louis north to get the overall flow rising,” Grain Service Corporation vice president Diana Klemme told Agricensus.
“Expect barge freight to remain high through the first half of October [which will be] a drag on basis upriver and/or push Gulf basis levels higher,” Klemme said.

- Klemme added that “the difference between cash bids for September/first half of October and December are now big enough that farmers and elevators will look to hold back as many bushels as they have room for – which in turn will only slow US export shipments further near term.” If higher barge costs pressure FOB Gulf premiums higher, Brazil may overtake the US in terms of spot price competitiveness with more export demand shifting to South America just after a month when an incentivised exchange rate policy bolstered Argentine soybean shipments.
“If Brazil did in fact cut back on [soybean] crush per poor margins, then those extra soybeans could be exported to China,” Reilly said.
“I believe that if logistics make US prices less competitive or if importers feel insecure with the country’s loading capacity Brazil could be benefited,” Brazil’s Agrural senior analyst Daniele Siqueira told Agricensus.

Siqueira said that Brazil does not have the capacity to cover the large volumes the US usually supplies the export market through the last quarter of the calendar year but that a couple of million mt of soybeans could shift from the US to Brazil due to the Mississippi issues.

Sep 30 - VTB urges Putin to curb Western grain traders' Russian ops
Sanctions-hit VTB Bank has urged President Vladimir Putin to curb the activities of Western grain traders in Russia, citing the need to strengthen Russian traders' role in the global market, a letter seen by Reuters shows. In the letter dated Sept. 14, VTB Chief Executive Andrei Kostin asked Putin to issue a decree to prohibit companies belonging to "persons related to unfriendly states" from buying grain and oilseeds from Russian farmers for onward export. 

Sep 30 - Argentina corn planting being held up by drought, exchange says
Argentina's corn planting is well behind the pace of last year due to a prolonged drought, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday, noting that 5.8% of the area expected for the cereal had been sown, 11 percentage points behind a year before. The South American nation is the world's No. 3 exporter of corn.

Sep 30  - EU Agri Opening Market Comments ( StoneX )
- I was at an energy conference yesterday and I learned very little about the outlook for energy
(bearish gas seemed to be the consensus FWIW). I did however learn a lot about the world of algo trading. I learned that all the major oil companies have small armies of data analysts and quants that are constantly building and refining computer trading models that do a range of things from basic order entry, to trading off techncial to arbitraging (especially in electricity), to position/portfolio management.
- What was interesting was debates between the nerds about whether to leave their
algo's running this winter or not in the electricity market with the potential for super extreme
volatility and the potential for sporadic and unpredictable government intervention in electricity
markets.
- Sep. Malaysian CPO exports seen up 10% or so MoM.
- US corn basis remains weak on difficult river logistics there.
- The euro strength will be welcomed by importers.
- Russian wheat is cheap and likely to stay cheap.
- Matif wheat above the 100day MA which will draw back in the long side momentum traders. Half the maize crop is in the bin.

Sep 29  - Ten Brazilian soybean crush plants now offline as crush margins plummet (AgriCensus)

- Up to ten Brazilian soybean crushers have reportedly halted processing operations due to plunging crush margins and continued weak demand, reducing the country's crushing pace by 15,000 mt/day, local sources have told Agricensus. Two more plants have now gone offline, taking the total amount of affected facilities to ten, reducing crushing pace by 15,000 mt/day collectively represent about 8% of the country’s capacity. Agricensus previously reported that eight soybean crush facilities were offline on September 12.

- Soybean processing capacity in Brazil is estimated at 194,400 mt/day, with most of the operations focused on the regions of Mato Grosso, Parana, Rio Grande do Sul and Goias, which account for nearly 70% of the country's total capacity. Brazilian crush margins for the rest of the year have plummeted into deeper negative territory over the past two weeks, with calculated margins for Q4 ranging at minus $56-$50/mt per month, according to data from Brazil’s Agrinvest Commodities.
“Crushing margins are really bad again,” Victor Martins, senior risk manager at HedgePoint Global, told Agricensus.
“But some plants will continue to operate as they are better off crushing with negative margins than having the beans as stock, in order to fulfill its deliveries - especially to importers,” Martins added.

- Crushing plants usually undertake maintenance around December/January, ahead of the soybean harvest in Brazil, but this year plants are going offline earlier than anticipated.
“There is not much liquidity in Brazil – a lot of the paper trades done on FOB Paranagua are crushers buying back hedges to sell to the domestic market (biodiesel fixings) – the biodiesel market has not been very active of late so little demand from that too,” a local trade source told Agricensus.

- Brazil is the second largest exporter of soyoil globally, behind Argentina, and it is poised to export 2.13 million mt of soyoil and 18.8 million mt of soymeal in 2022/23, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Sep 29 - Ukraine's winter wheat sowing 15% complete, rapeseed finished (AgriCensus)

Ukraine’s winter sowing campaign progressed to 15% complete, while the planting of winter rapeseeds was finished in the week ending September 26, according to official government data seen by Agricensus Wednesday.

In many regions of Ukraine, farmers were still forced to suspend field work due to long-term precipitation, however, the optimal time for the sowing of winter crops has not been missed.

In mid-September the soil moisture has been one of the most productive in the last 10 years, according to the expert evaluation of the local meteo-center.

This creates a good basis for the future crop, as Ukraine's wheat crop production usually makes up the bulk of the winter crop with around 98%.

Farmers are expected to sow 3.9 million hectares of wheat, 21% less than last year’s area, due to temporary occupation by Russian forces, military operations, and mining of fields.

However, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy expects an increase in areas under winter crops compared to its earlier estimate due to the de-occupation of some territories.

Winter wheat was planted on 622,100 ha, which is 16% of the total area projected for sowing.

The overall pace of sowing is 13 percentage points behind the previous year.

Winter barley was sown on 64,500 ha or 10% of the projected area for planting, roughly on par with last year's pace.

Winter rapeseeds sowing finished with 960,600 ha or 100% completed, which is 9 percentage points above the figure seen a year ago.

The Ministry report predicts that the high price of the oilseed is likely to see actual planted area come in well above the outlook.

Sep 29 - Argentina soy harvest set to climb next season; wheat, corn to retreat
Soybean production in Argentina is expected to rise to 48 million tonnes in 2022/23, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Wednesday, as it provided its first estimates for the new season in one of the world's largest grain suppliers. The 15.5% increase over the 2021/22 crop, currently seen at 43.3 million tonnes, would come on the back of a larger planted area and at the expense of other crops, such as corn, the exchange said.

Sep 29 - Brazil soy crushers halt production as margins turn negative
Brazilian soybean processors have temporarily halted units as crushing margins turned negative, reflecting weak domestic demand for biodiesel and high vegetable oil inventories, analysts said on Wednesday. Abiove, a trade group representing global oilseed crushers in Brazil, confirmed the move, noting some members advanced scheduled maintenance stoppages as soy oil prices dropped even as soybean prices remained high, hurting margins.

Sep 29  - EU Agri morning comments ( Stone X )
- US corn and soybean spreads weakening as we head deeper into the harvest there. Cash market commentary in the US leans to overall weak basis that tends to precede flat price weakness.
- Some positioning ahead of the stocks report going on too. For now wheat has the firmest tone, funds reluctant to cut US shorts but have been steadily buying Matif in a typical seasonal flow.
- The trade debating implications for the NS 1 and 2 damage. It lowers probabilities of cheap gas for the foreseable futures.
- On the one hand presumably this keeps fertiliser costs high which tends to support grain prices, on the other hand it will mean more end-users will be scaling back and that needs to be factored into the demand side of balance sheets. Its more likely consumer contract than producers based on the experieinces of the past harvest cycle.
- Europe has a longer term problem with Glacier contraction and what that means for summer water supplies for French Nuclear facilities.

Sep 28  - Russian associations challenge Putin as farmers' eligible for military call up (AgriCensus)

- Farm workers will be eligible to be called up for military service as part of Russia’s partial mobilization of reservists to fight in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin confirmed at a meeting of regional leaders on Tuesday, in a move that has raised questions from industry associations as the sector heads into a key time in the planting campaign. Farming groups warned that the move could bring ‘disruption’ both to the final stages of the current harvest and the key planting stages of the next crop.
“I would like to address the heads of regions and heads of agricultural companies. Within the framework of partial mobilization, agricultural workers are also called up. Their families need to be supported. Please pay special attention to this issue,” Putin said.
“And now I am addressing not only those governors who are in touch and take part in our work today, in our meeting, but in general to all the governors of Russia, to all leaders,” he added.

- Nothing more was mentioned on this subject during the meeting held with regional heads, however officials did report on the progress of sowing and planting campaigns, which are currently ongoing and require workers in the fields. In Stavropol region alone, around 30,000 people are expected to be involved in autumn field works, according to Vladimir Vladimirov, head of the region. Local media has already reported that agro-industrial unions have asked the government for a deferment from the partial mobilization.

- The Association of Nurseries and Gardeners of the Stavropol Territory has sent a letter to the ministry of agriculture saying that “mobilization of workers employed in the industrial nursery and horticulture sectors will lead to the disruption of the harvesting campaign and the disruption of the technological features of production.”

- The Russian Grain Union is also considering asking the government for a delay in calling up qualified workers, not only to allow field work but also for the processing industry. The Russian grain and oilseeds harvest is coming to an end with 88% of the crop harvested, while winter sowing has only just started with only around 9 million ha planted. This year’s crop is expected to be a record one for Russia, with the wheat crop expected to exceed 100 million mt and the total grain harvest pegged at around 150 million mt.

Sep 28  - EU morning Market Comments (Stone X)
- So Nord stream 1 and 2 simultaneously explode rendering them unusable for the next 6 months or so. Probably design rather than accident. The blame game begins. On the one hand, materially not much has changed as they were not being used anyway, psychologically it guarantees no Russian gas via these particular pipelines in 2022. This is a massive blow to industry as gas prices look set to stay elevated and in time the shift to alternative sources (gasoil) will upset old demand ideas.
- As old gas contracts look to be renegotiated the cost base for industrial users will continue to rise feeding inflation even as we see some commodities weaken and likely see further weakening of demand. Waves within waves. The global economy is losing support as bonds collapse signalling a growing sense of unease about owning government debts after covid debt. accumulation and now trying to fund rising energy costs and a war with Russia in an environment where interest rates are all but certain to rise and rise substantially.
- Oh yeah, the US corn/soybean harvest has started. Stocks and acreage in the US is this week too but the world focused rally on macro events.
- If the global economy is going to recede it will do it in the next 6months, if Russia press that big red button it will happen in the next 6months. You own corn puts for former and wheat call spreads for the latter.

Sep 27  - U.S. farmers urge Washington to challenge Mexico's looming ban on GM corn
Farmers in the United States are urging their government to challenge a looming Mexican ban on genetically modified (GM) corn under a regional free trade agreement, warning of billions of dollars of economic damage to both countries.

Sep 27  - EU crop monitor raises Russian wheat crop estimates, cuts maize
The European Union's crop monitoring service MARS on Monday raised its projections for Russia's 2022 wheat crop to a new record high, but lowered its grain maize crop forecast to take account of hot and dry summer weather.

Sep 27  - South Korea’s NOFI buys estimated 135,000 T corn in tender
  - traders
South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) has bought an estimated 135,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in an international tender that closed on Monday, European traders said.

Sep 27 - EU’s MARS expected exceptionally high Russian wheat production at 95 MMT (AgriCensus)

The European Union’s crop monitoring agency has become the latest international consultancy to weigh in on Russia’s upcoming wheat crop, citing favourable weather, increased planted area and strong yields as key elements in delivering a record wheat production outlook.

The agency has called total wheat production of just shy of 95 million mt, a 25% increase on the previous year on the back of a 3% increase in planted area and a 21% increase in yield.

Much of the production, 70 million mt, is winter wheat, a 31% increase on the previous year and 22% above the five-year average.

Part of the increase in wheat planting came at the expense of barley, and the Monitoring Agricultural Resources (MARS) unit reported a 2% year-on-year decline in barley plantings.

However, the beneficial conditions have also supported barley yields, contributing to a 20% jump versus last year to deliver total production a whisker over 21.6 million mt – up 18%.

While confirming the size of the production, the agency did not comment on the potential quality of the crop – with some analysts expecting a higher proportion of feed wheat among the output.

Finally, along with much of Europe and North America, the hot, dry conditions have played havoc with corn yields and production outlooks, despite an uptick in the planted area.

Farmers sowed 10% more land than the five year average, and while yields and production were both up, the yield increased by only 5% versus last year with production rising 6%.

Sep 26  - European lamb price hits seven-month low (IHSmarkit)

- European lamb prices have eased to their lowest level since February, amid indications that high retail and wholesale prices may be affecting levels of consumption. The EU benchmark price for lamb remains at a historically high level – and still 7.6% above the level seen this time last year. The EU average price for heavy lambs in the week ending 18 September was €705.62 ($683.59) per 100kg, down by just 0.2% on the previous week.

- However, with supplies of lamb having now recovered from the low levels of 2020 and 2021, a gradual downward trend is now evident. The latest week-on-week decline is the 10 th time in the last 13 weeks that the index has moved downwards. Moreover, reports from some member states suggest that with concerns about the rising cost of living now widespread, consumers are starting to turn away from lamb in favour of cheaper alternatives. Prices in most major EU markets were little changed week-on-week, although there was a slight increase in the price in Ireland, bringing to an end a sequence of sharp price reductions.

Sep 26 - Wheat gains on Ukraine supply concerns

- Wheat futures continued to climb as concerns persist about supply disruptions, amid escalating conflict in Ukraine. Chicago December wheat was up seven cents to $9.10 ¾, while Kansas City rose 12 1/2 cents to $9.79 1/2, and Minneapolis gained 13 1/2 cents to $9.77 3/4.

- The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for 2022/23 global wheat production by 14 million tonnes to 792 million tonnes, partly reflecting an upward revision for the crop in Russia now seen at 93.4 million tonnes. Russia's wheat exports in the 2022/23 season were still seen at 36.5 million tonnes, despite the higher production forecast, leading to a carry-out of 22.5 million tonnes, almost double the prior season's level of 11.3 million tonnes.

- Port loadings in Germany and France remained active as merchants executed large sales made in recent months.

Sep 26  - EU Opening Market Comments (Stone X)
- Palpable concern for the stability of the global market framework with stock markets retracing to recent lows, the euro collapsing to bellow 0.97, crude oil collapsing to below $80/barrel, container freight costs from China to the West in freefall.
- Few commodities are immune to a global recession. The implications for this type of market where processors are unsure of consumer demand and fearful of being too long at elevated prices is that we revert even more aggressively to a spot market trade. This could well be one of the cure for high prices is high prices moments as thousands of euro are sucked out of homeowners bank accounts to pay for heating, electricity and interest costs.
- That said I was in quite a few airports last week and they were all jam packed with travellers and it was only on the 3rd try that we got a restaurant at th
e weekend.
- The rumours about Xi being ousted seem unfounded but the point is not the rumors but that there was no great surprise that it could be the case, we still dont understand the extent of the property bubble over there and how far they will go on Taiwan.
- The market has lost/is losing confidence in the demand profile. It was just a few months ago palmoil was unbuyable and now we are back at levels traded in 2019. If you are long OTM puts are your best defence.

Sep 26   - Seven more crop-laden ships leave Ukrainian ports on Sunday
Seven more ships laden with agricultural produce left Ukrainian ports on Sunday, the country's infrastructure ministry said, bringing the total to 218 since a U.N.-brokered corridor through the Black Sea came into force at the start of August.

Sep 26   - Philippines bought about 45,000 tonnes Australian feed wheat - traders
An importer group in the Philippines is believed to have bought around 45,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat to be sourced from Australia in an international tender which closed on Thursday, European traders said in assessments on Friday.

Sep 24  - Indonesia unlikely to lift DMO palm oil policy, may raise export quota instead ( Gapki )
- Indonesia is unlikely to remove its current Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) policy on palm oil but may move to raise the current export quota instead, a senior official from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) told Agricensus on Friday.
“There have been parties recommending the lifting of the DMO, but I don’t think the Indonesia government will lift (the policy), though they may raise the ratio from the current 1:9 to 1:13.5 or 1:20,” Mr Fadhil Hasan, Head of Trade and Promotion at Gapki told Agricensus.

- The current DMO policy, which requires palm oil exporters to sell a portion of their palm oil to the domestic market before they can receive a permit to export, was implemented following the lifting of Indonesia’s palm oil export ban in late May this year.

Sept 23  - EU morning comments ( StoneX )
- We had some nice debates/discussion yesterday. The thing about this market is that futures rallies periodically open opportunities to long cash against futures shorts (probably now is one of them), its just the ability (or otherwise) to have the mental and cash capital to finance the positions is the deciding factor.
- The trade seem to be edging towards the conclusion that recent events in Ukraine have not altered greatly the material flows of grains, at least for now. That school of thought general holds hands with the thought that the impending/ongoing recession is dampening demand.
- There was good debate about fertiliser too and working through the permutations I dont see great merit in paying €900/tonne for spring fertiliser needs. The counter argument is largely a security of supply but my counter that is that buying forward impoves chances of getting it but doesnt guarantee it and if there is that level of shortage then presumably grain prices will reflect that and grain prices will take me back to a per hectare margin we are at now. Conversely, locking up fertiliser costs in the absence of grain sales would be the single biggest financial gamble farmers have taken in a generation. Grain will price to world cost, not your cost.

Sep 23  - Ukrainian crushers face tight supply of old and new crop sunseeds (Agricensus)
- Ukrainian crushers are facing a tight supply of sunseeds due to farmers holding back sales of old crop and low sunseed stock, as well as limited supply of new crop as a result of the slow progress of the harvesting campaign due to rains. Crushers in the central, northern, and some southwestern regions are reporting a lack of supply of both old and new crop sunflower as farmers hold back sales in anticipation of higher commodity prices going forward.

- Given the slow pace of the harvesting campaign due to rainy weather in the main parts of Ukraine, market participants assume that mass harvesting, subject to favorable weather conditions, will begin in early October.
“Raw materials are tight, but there is no [real] shortage,” a central Ukraine crusher told Agricensus.

- According to crusher estimates, market expectations of high sunseeds stocks did not materialize, and now estimates of sunseeds stocks as of September 1, 2023 are pegged at no more than 2.1 million mt at plants and from farmers in Ukraine-controlled territory. At the same time, crushers are trying to keep prices for sunflower seeds of old and new crops within UAH14,000-16,000/mt ($327-373/mt) CPT plant including VAT, as they are limited by sunflower oil prices and the timing of the grain corridor.

- Prices in the range of UAH14,000-15,000/mt ($327-350/mt) CPT plant are typical for sunflower with an oil content of 46-48%, and above UAH15,000/mt ($350/mt) CPT plant for sunflower with an oil content of 50% .

- However, given the competition for raw materials between processors and exporters, individual crushers are willing to pay more than $16,500/mt ($385/mt) CPT plant for raw materials. Exporter prices are significantly higher and range from $515/mt to $550/mt DAP in Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary. Exports of sunflower seeds from the beginning of the 2022/23 season to September 20 amounted to 338,367 mt, according to official data, which is the average monthly export volume over the past five months. The active start to exports at the beginning of the season confirms the fears of crushers that sunflower exports in the 2022/23 season will not be lower than 1.6 million mt, and according to some estimates, could reach 3 million mt, mainly to Europe.

- According to preliminary estimates, market sources expect a sunflower harvest of 10.3 million mt to 11.28 million mt. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, as of September 22, 672,900 ha of sunflowers or 14% of the planned areas were harvested, amounting to almost 1.3 million mt of sunflower seeds.

Sep 23 - IGC raises forecast for 2022/23 global wheat crop
The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday raised its forecast for 2022/23 global wheat production, partly reflecting an upward revision for the crop in Russia. In its monthly update, the inter-governmental body saw global wheat production rising to 792 million tonnes in 2022/23, up from a previous projection of 778 million and now above the prior season's 782 million tonnes.

Sep 23 - Crop merchant Louis Dreyfus' profits rise as it navigates Ukraine crisis
Global crop merchant Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) reported higher first-half sales and profits, saying it had used its wider supply network to adapt to disruptions linked to the Ukraine war to boost volumes and benefit from higher prices. LDC, whose rivals include ADM, Bunge and Cargill, said net sales for the six months ending June 30 rose to $30.3 billion from $24 billion a year earlier, while net income rose to $662 million from $336 million.

Sep 22  - EU morning comments (StoneX)
- Argentina had some strong soy export numbers to China on recent more favourable export term and maybe a reminder that as China "prepares for war" that if the US does back Taiwan that they will go elsewhere. That said, China will be as worried as anyone at the developing drought and poor growing conditions developing in Argie.
- I am in Copenhagen for the Baltic exchange where spirits are high as old aquaintences are met again. It masks however the conundrum for the grain market, that is cheap Black sea grain is offered but buyers are reluctant to execute from there. This reluctance only matched by an unwillingess to pay the premium for "safe" origins.
- The slow/absent flow of Russian crush products is also missed. The markets solution is to keep moving grain across land and Polish ports are busy loading Ukrainian grain or grain pressured by Ukrainian grain.
- The fed. raised interest rates 75BP's.
- A passing comment on aging US ethanol plants taking longer maintenance was an interesting point from a colleague. US farmers dusting in w. wheat for the high revenue insurance. Seasonal post harvest support in wheat wants to take us higher as does risk. The US harvest imminent and depends how strong the buyer wants ownership.

Sep 22 - Putin speech raises fears over export corridor, increased war risks (AgriCensus)

Russian President Vladimir Putin's partial mobilization announcement Wednesday raised concerns over Ukraine's export corridor agreement, with futures markets spiking and trade on hold awaiting further development.

Russia was also expected to announce referendums to be held in Ukraine's occupied territories for Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions to join the Russian Federation, which could escalate the conflict furthermore.

Ukraine

The Ukrainian market showed a mixed bag of reactions, with some trade sources expressing uncertainty about what will happen next and what to expect given the export corridor agreement will expire on November 20, while others said they would continue exporting goods as long as it is possible.

“Given this news, we are not stopping the trade but increasing the pace in order to deliver the grains faster,” a trader said.  

Some sources said that no matter what the Russian president said, grain exports from Ukraine would continue, with or without Russian guarantees and support.

Offers for Ukrainian goods were mostly unchanged from yesterday, with sellers expressing concerns about a lack of buying interest, as buyers are not in a hurry to book Ukrainian cargoes for forward deliveries amid high force major risks.

"People are worried; let's see how the market will react. No one knows how it will develop, tankers take more risk going to Ukraine, but the price of sunoil is not increasing,” a second trader said.

Some Black Sea market participants also mentioned Ukraine having around two months to push as much grains and vegoils as possible and get prepared on the military side of things, as training of new Russian soldiers will take approximately the same amount of time.

"That is adding a bit of risk premium again on shipments from the Black Sea...except for Ukrainian spot need to sell, fewer people willing to offer big volumes of sunoil to India or other places till November – until we know if big ports agreement will continue or not,” another trader said.

Russia

The Russian grain market reaction was also uncertain, with deep-sea offers seen stable at around $320/mt FOB for 12.5% protein wheat and the spread with buying interest still wide, despite firmer bids at $310-316/mt.

Meanwhile, shallow-water market prices jumped significantly – with Russian 12.5% protein wheat up by around $10-12/mt day-on-day and offered at $345-347/mt CIF Marmara versus a buying idea at $340/mt.

Global market

Global market participants were mainly concerned about the stability of grains and vegoils supply from the Black Sea region, especially Ukraine's export corridor operations.

"Let's hope for the best, but for now it looks like further escalation... hopefully Ukraine can beat them already in the East so they will not get that far but there is a very high chance that they close the corridor again I think,” a Europe-based trader told Agricensus.

“A speech, in general, is an escalation; escalation probably means further sanctions, which potentially limits wheat supply, therefore it means bullish markets,” another trader said.

Trade sources also mentioned potential freight rates increase for both Ukraine and Russia amid higher risks.

“No [vessel] owner or operator is ready to work at any rates right now as everybody wants to see what will happen next, as not only shipping is affected but also grain prices will increase, which will heavily affect the trade,” a freight broker said.

At the same time, other freight sources said that the market has not fully reacted yet, digesting the news.

Futures

After a strong surge on the CME exchange prior to Putin’s speech Tuesday, the December Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat contract started in the red Wednesday but moved up again by $0.09/mt during the day and was trading at $9.02/mt at 1216 ET.

Euronext wheat futures meanwhile continued to move upwards, adding another €7.75/mt to the December contract, pushing it to €347/mt by 1822 CET.

Sep 22 - Brazil's wheat crop estimate revised to 10.9 mln T, a record
Brazilian wheat production should total 10.935 million tonnes in 2022 as four states are likely to increase output in what will be a record season for local farmers, according to agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercado on Wednesday.  The new estimate represents an increase from the 10.5 million tonnes previously expected.

Sep 22 - Malaysia's palm oil stocks could hit 3-1/2-year high as Indonesia boosts exports
Malaysia's palm oil stocks could rise to a 3-1/2-year high by the end of 2022 as exports are likely to take a hit from rival Indonesia waiving export levies to bring down stockpiles, a senior government official told Reuters. Indonesian producers are moving to lighten their stocks at cheaper prices after Jakarta recently extended its export levy waiver to Oct. 31 in a reversal of course from an export ban in May that had shut them out of global trade.

Sep 21  - RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR
- President Vladimir Putin ordered Russia's first mobilization since World War Two, warning the West that if it continued what he called its "nuclear blackmail" that Moscow would respond with the might of all its vast arsenal.
"If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will use all available means to protect our people - this is not a bluff," Putin said in a televised address to the nation, adding Russia had "lots of weapons to reply".

- One-way flights out of Russia were selling out fast after Putin ordered the immediate call-up of 300,000 reservists, and Russia’s opposition called for protests.
- Residents of the Ukrainian capital Kyiv dismissed Putin's move as a mark of desperation and expressed confidence in their own armed forces to drive Russian troops from their country.
- The European Union's executive body told Putin to stop his "reckless" nuclear gamble, while Britain said the threats must be taken seriously.

Sep 21  - EU morning comments (StoneX )
- Rarely has the pendulum of sentiment towards such a major issue swung so greatly from one direction to another.
- We were sipping on coffee's in the morning taking comfort from Erdogans words of comfort that Russia can/will find a way to conclude the conflict quickly. By the afternoon we were coughing up coffee into our cups as new filtered through that Putin was to make an announcement along the line of a full mobilisation towards a war and anexation of Ukrainian regions. The truth was somewhere in between with a partial mobilisation and referendums this week to join Russia in several regions.
- The cards are being turned, we have had the flop, now the turn and we wait on the river and see who is bluffing or not. The challenge is when the last check is called, will we be waiting days, weeks, month are presumably years for any true return to normality where we hate each other (Russia v "the West") in silence and let the markets trade without precondition like the good old days.
- The reaction has so far been as expected, the euro is weaker, crude is stronger and wheat leads the gains with a possy of reluctant followers. There is no particular shortage of wheat its just a case of who and where and how much. Call spreads are your weapon of choice for defence against a further appreciation in grain (wheat) prices.

Sep 21 - Climate change, conflict decimate Syria's grain crop
Climate change, a faltering economy and residual security issues have decimated Syria's 2022 grain crop, leaving the majority of its farmers in a precarious position, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said. Syria's 2022 wheat harvest amounted to around 1 million tonnes, down some 75% from pre-crisis volumes, while barley was almost non-existent, Mike Robson, FAO's Syria Representative told Reuters.

Sep 21 - As war, drought hit global crops, Argentina gambles on GM wheat
Many environmental and consumer groups have resisted GM wheat, fearing unforeseen side-effects from changes to the genome in a grain used in bread, pasta and other staples. Bioceres is leading the way globally towards commercializing GM wheat, Reuters found from interviews with the firm and importers, documents on U.S. field trials obtained through a freedom of information request and a rare visit to the Argentina test fields.

Sep 20  - Pork and poultry prices pick up pace in China (IHSmarkit)
- Prices of pork and chicken increased in China ahead of the Mid-Autumn festival, which ran from 10th to 12th of September.
- Wholesale prices for pork increased to CNY30.48 per kg (US$4.37/kg) in the week ending 9 September – up 1.3% w/w and 7% m/m, according to the Chinese Commerce Ministry. National pork prices are now at their highest since April 2021.
- The price increase came despite the imposition of fresh Covid restrictions in parts of China, which put a dampener on demand over the festival period.
- Wholesale prices for chicken rose for the tenth consecutive week to stand at CNY19.43 per kg in the week ending 9 September, according to Commerce Ministry figures. This is the highest price recorded since 2019, when demand for chicken was pushed up by shortages of pork in the wake of widespread outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF).

Sep 20 - Ukraine 2022/23 production estimated at 67m mt, exports 45m mt (AgriCensus)

Ukraine is expected to produce 67 million mt of grains and oilseeds in the 2022/23 marketing year, a result that would still be one of the five biggest harvests and export slates of the 30 last years of independence, a note from the ministry of agriculture showed on Monday.

The view comes despite the ongoing war following Russia's invasion of the Black Sea agricultural powerhouse that started in February 2022.

Ukraine is expected to produce 50-52 million mt of grains and 15-17 million mt of oilseeds, a figure that is significantly higher than domestic consumption - by a factor of at least one and a half time, and rises to almost three times in some products, the ministry data showed.

That means a large proportion of production is expected to be available for export.

The country's wheat crop is already finished at 19 million mt, while domestic usage of both feed and milling wheat together stand at 7.5-8 million mt, which means at least 11 million mt of new crop wheat is available for export.

Barley's domestic consumption stands at around 2.5-3 million mt, which allows 2.5 million mt to be exported, given production of 5.5 million mt.

The corn, sunflower and soybean harvests have only just started, but “it's already possible to expect good yield”, the statement from the ministry said.

"We estimate the domestic consumption of grain and oilseeds at the level of 20-22 million tons. At least 45 million tons of this crop will be exported," Taras Vysotsky, First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food said.

"Already from October, the new harvest will take up most of the export. For now, we are exporting the remnants of the previous harvest," Vysotsky said, adding that it's possible that in September alone, Ukrainian agricultural product exports could reach 5.5 million mt - close to pre-war levels.

The news comes against a background of concerns over the grain corridor - the negotiated safe passage from the three main Ukrainian Black Sea deep water ports as agreed to by Russia.

The official agreement, brokered by Turkey's government and the United Nations, is set to end on November 20, while recent comments from the Russian president have been seen as a possible threat over the further continuation of the deal.

Sep 20 - China's soybean imports from Brazil plunge in August
China's soybean imports from Brazil plunged in August from a year ago, customs data showed on Tuesday, as high prices capped purchases of the oilseed from the South American nation. Imports from smaller suppliers such as Uruguay and the United States both increased, however.

Sep 20 - Rain arrived too late to save EU drought-hit summer crops, MARS says
The European Union's crop monitoring service MARS on Monday cut its summer crops yield forecasts again, saying rainfall in many parts of the bloc had not been sufficient to reverse damage caused by dry and hot weather earlier in the season. MARS put its yield outlook for the EU's grain maize crop, which will be harvested in the autumn, at 6.39 tonnes per hectare (t/ha) down from 6.63 t/ha projected last month and now 19% below both the 2021 level and the five-year average.

Sep 19 - Asian farmers plant to boost palm oil output, seedling shortage slows pace
Farmers across Asia are busy planting trees to boost palm oil production but nurseries are struggling to keep up with demand for sprouts and seedlings, risking a delay in the industry's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The seedlings shortfall could slow plantation, capping production growth and keeping palm oil prices elevated, industry officials said, as the world already grapples with lofty inflation.

Sep 19 - Coceral cuts EU corn crop forecast on weather woes
Grain trade association Coceral reduced its forecast for this year's European Union corn crop to 51.9 million tonnes from a previous projection of 66.0 million tonnes in May, citing hot, dry weather in key growing countries. Other forecasters have also cut estimates for the bloc's corn harvest after severe drought and successive heatwaves hurt crops during the crucial summer growth period.

Sep 19  - EU morning comments ( StoneX )
- CFTC data was largely in line with expectations save for wheat where funds were a surpriding 23k contracts short (v -7k expected).
- The US corn and soybean harvest loom large as does the winter crop plantings in Europe and the Black sea followed swiftly by the soybean and corn plantings of Argentina and Brazil.
- Argentina has been steeling headlines as a super drought there is developing to dent production ideas.
- As the old rule goes, a problem in Brazil support beans and hits crush, a problem in Argentina supports products and by extension supports the crush.
- The trade will meet in Copenhagen this week and it will see if anecdotal suggestions of weak exports is the norm or isolated.
- Barley seems a troubled market on the demand side but should it get cheap enough China have in the past swooped in to hoover up surpluses.
- Since breaking below 600 rapeseed looks in trouble with the Canadian crop arriving soon and prospects for Australia decent, palmoil still looks cheap and beanoil looks expensive.
- Energy markets see crude still inder pressure with the SPR releases but that wont last forever, the added weight of a stong dollar not a help.
- Current estimates are that EU gas demand will be down 15%, roughly equal to how much lower supplies are expected down. We need a mild winter.

Sep 16  - Market Briefing: Dairy (IHSmarkit)

- Production in India expected to jump three-fold over the next 25 years
- New Zealand WMP exports grow
 - In Europe, retail butter demand is holding up but manufacturing butter demand is faltering

Production
- Milk production in Brazil is running at an 8% y/y deficit. In Q2 2022, milk collections totalled 5.39 million litres, 8% down y/y.
- India’s milk production is expected to jump three-fold to 628 million tonnes in the next 25 years, with an average annual growth of 4.5%, Amul Managing Director R S Sodhi said on 12 September.

Demand
- European demand at retail for butter remains robust, however, manufacturing demand does appear to be easing. Manufacturing butter demand is price sensitive as it is easily changeable with oil-based margarine products.

Trade
- New Zealand WMP exports recorded a marginal growth on the year (+2%), to 122,200 tonnes. SMP exports meanwhile grew 29% y/y, to 29,400 tonnes. The driving force behind this growth in exports were shipments to Indonesia (+95%), Algeria (+288%), Thailand (+111%) and Singapore (+31%). Volumes to China contracted 19% y/y.
- US butter exports reached 13.5 million pounds, jumping more than 70% on a year-over-year basis. Year-to-date, butter exports have been ahead of 2021, totaling 77.8 million pounds, 18.1 million more pounds than the same period in 2021.
- In the year ended July 2022, the total New Zealand export value of milk powder, butter, and cheese increased NZ$2.8 billion (17%) to NZ$18.8 billion, compared with the year ended July 2021.

Prices
- CME spot cheese prices were expected to increase and that happened this week. CME spot blocks closed on Friday at $1.9175, up $0.1525 from last week’s closing while barrels traded even higher at $1.9325, up $0.075.

Sep 16  - Market Briefing: Meat and Livestock (IHSmarkit)

- Avian flu hits large egg farm in Spain.
- Pre-festival demand lifts pork and poultry prices in China.
- Russian poultry sector still relying on EU for hatching eggs.
- EU pig prices rise for seventh straight week, but pace of growth slows.

Production

- Spain has reported an outbreak of highly pathogenic flu (HPAI) on a large egg farm with more than 600,000 birds – all of which will now be destroyed. The affected property is one of the largest to be affected in a new wave of European HPAI outbreaks, that comes at a time of year when the disease does not normally cause serious problems in the region. Chicken slaughterings in Brazil fell to 1.5 billion birds in the second quarter of 2022, down 1.4% y/y, according to preliminary data from the Brazilian Statistics Institute (IBGE). Despite the decline in slaughter numbers, tonnage increased to 3.65 million tonnes (carcase weight) – up 1.2% y/y – thanks to a rise in average slaughter weights.

Demand
- Prices of pork, eggs and chicken all increased in China ahead of the Mid-Autumn festival, which ran from 10th to 12th of September. The price increase came despite the imposition of fresh Covid restrictions in parts of China, which put a dampener on demand over the festival period. Wholesale prices for pork have risen by 7% over the past month and are now at their highest since April 2021. Wholesale prices for chicken have risen for ten consecutive weeks and are now at their highest since late 2019. Following recent increases, pork and poultry prices are expected to stabilize or fall slightly over the next couple of weeks as demand eases following the Mid-Autumn festival and the imposition of new Covid restrictions.

Trade
- Russia’s poultry industry is still importing large volumes of hatching eggs from the EU despite concerns that supplies may dry up in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. EU countries supplied Russia with 175 million hatching eggs in the first six months of this year, worth some EUR56 million. Meanwhile, Russia has suspended beef imports from four large slaughterhouses in Paraguay – a move that will put a serious brake on purchases from the South American country. The newly suspended plants had previously been supplying more than half of all Paraguayan beef exports to Russia, which reached 11,884 tonnes in August.

Prices

- EU pig prices have continued to move to new record highs over the past week, although the pace of growth has slowed significantly compared with recent weeks. The EU average price for Class E pigs in the week ending 11 September was EUR210.41 per 100kg, up by 0.5% on the previous week. This is the seventh consecutive weekly increase in the EU average price, although this week’s increase was the smallest for six weeks. Germany and Poland both recorded price increases of 1.3%, while the Belgian price was up 1.7% week-on-week. But the market was more stable in other major EU pig producer countries, with prices even falling slightly in Spain (-0.6%) and Denmark (-0.1%). Demand for pigmeat remains comparatively modest, but prices are staying high because of concerns over low supply volumes, and also due to very high energy and feed costs.

Sep 16  - Russia’s bumper wheat crop means for ‘northern EU game is over’ (AgriCensus)
Russia's huge upcoming wheat crop is likely to spell 'game over' for Northwest European wheat exports leaving farmers in the region to hold on to supply as they eye Russia's willingness to keep a Black Sea grain export corridor open, the pace of Europe's corn harvest and the quality of harvested wheat, trade sources have told Agricensus.  
“For Northern Europe, the game is over,” one trade source said, with the imbalance likely to keep a lid on any further exports until the Black Sea dominance ends.

- Prices for Germany, Poland and other Baltic countries remain uncompetitive in the global market compared to aggressive levels seen in the Black Sea region - a dynamic that is likely to ensure that the imbalance, which has dominated for several months, will continue as the big Russian harvest comes to market. But trade sources say there are challenges that could yet cut Black Sea supply through a lack of quality wheat or the closure of the grain corridor, or could force European farmers to sell as they need to clear space for the incoming corn harvest.

Invasion
European traders kept their books busy with new crop deliveries in the first and second quarter of 2022, benefiting from high global wheat prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Februay. But that led to slower farmer selling in the third quarter, as exports from the Black Sea picked up, and ensured that European exporters simply kept themselves busy with execution and were in no hurry to sign new deals at lower levels.
“More than 50% of German new crop grains [mainly wheat and barley] are already sold out,” a Germany-based trader told Agricensus.

- Russia’s bumper 2022/23 wheat crop of nearly 95 million mt brought additional pressure and competition to European origin wheat, squeezing the last opportunity out of the trading space and leaving farmers and exporters happy to sit back and watch unfolding dynamics. But with European farmers sitting on stocks still for the time being and lower quality wheat harvested this year, premiums were broadly stable over the last few weeks, keeping European wheat at around $20-30/mt above Black Sea levels. During the week, offers for Russian 12.5% wheat were seen in the range of $320-322/mt FOB Black Sea ports for October loading, while selling indications for German and Polish 12.5% were reported at a €15-25/mt and €9-12/mt premium to the December Euronext contract, which equates to around $348-358/mt and $342-345/mt respectively. German exporters normally compete with Russian origin into such destinations as Iran, Sudan and Saudi Arabia, but market participants expect the upcoming Saudi Arabian wheat tender to be a "purely Russian affair".

When to sell?
Despite low trading activity “farmers should be pushed to sell when the corn harvest starts, to free up some space in their warehouses,” a Poland-based trader said.
“But we hear that some of them have said that if the price is not right, they can sit on it till the next harvest,” the trader added.

- That comes despite concerns over the quality of some Russian wheat, with a higher than normal percentage of feed wheat expected in the current harvest.
- Since the export corridor agreement was signed on July 22, Ukrainian and Russian origin goods have gained competitiveness in the export market despite war and sanctions risks involved. But with uncertainty and rumors about the possible closure of the grain corridor circulating around the market, European traders have held off from active selling and prefer to watch the news closely. Russian media has indicated that their government is not happy with the pace of wheat exports and had hoped that the signing of the corridor deal with Ukraine would boost exports as well as re-open access to Ukraine's market.

- Traders are now awaiting further indications on the viability of the deal, with Russian President Vladimir Putin expected to comment on the situation during a meeting with Turkish and Chinese leaders in Uzbekistan on Friday.
“Russians desperately need to sell... France and Germany can only go back to the game if the corridor shuts,” a broker said.
“Selling beyond November-December is risky in these geopolitical conditions as Putin can move the market up €10/mt with one speech. Farmers are still thinking about the peak prices so probably something like €400/mt FOB,” another broker told Agricensus.

Sep 16 - Strategie Grains cuts EU maize crop forecast, raises Ukraine imports
Consultancy Strategie Grains sharply cut its forecast for this year's maize crop in the European Union, citing further damage from dry weather that will likely force the bloc to import large volumes this season, notably from Ukraine. In its monthly report it cut its 2022 EU maize crop forecast to 52.9 million tonnes from 55.4 million estimated in August, which was already a 15-year low.

Sep 16 - NOPA August soy crush below most estimates at 165.538 million bushels
The U.S. soybean crush dropped by nearly 3% on August and fell short of the average trade forecast, while soyoil stocks at the end of the month hit a 14-month low, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Thursday. NOPA members crushed 165.538 million bushels of soybeans last month, down 2.8% from the 170.220 million bushels processed in July but up 4.2% from the August 2021 crush of 158.843 million bushels.

Sep 16  - Malaysian AM, PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil Unavailable
Data for a.m. and p.m. Malaysian cash market prices for palm oil are unavailable for Friday, Sept. 16 due to a national holiday.

Sep 15 - China secures 10 more soybean cargoes from Argentina (Agricensus)
China-based traders have bought another ten cargoes of Argentinian soybeans, trade sources have told Agricensus Wednesday, continuing an arbitrage opportunity that has already seen some 20 cargoes booked by the world’s largest soybean importer last week.

Strong trading activity has marked the Argentine market in recent days, after the government relaunched a foreign exchange-based incentive designed to encourage farmers to sell soybeans.

A total of 5.7 million mt of Argentine soybeans have been sold since the start of the implementation of the new 'soy dollar' on September 5, with new soybean sales estimated at 2.87 million mt, according to data from the Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR).

“The prices of Argentine soybeans are very cheap currently... China’s buying pace was too slow before, and now starts to speed up,” a Chinese analyst told Agricensus.

The price levels for the latest purchase were below 290 c/bu over November futures on a CFR basis, with some at 287-288 c/bu, significantly lower than 385 c/bu for Brazilian soybeans and 365 c/bu for the US Gulf, according to Agricensus assessments.

“Cargos sold to China are a combination of greater liquidity in Argentina due to the sale of the producer, improvement in crush margins in China and a delay in the entry of North American soybeans,” an Argentina trade source said to Agricensus.

The soy dollar has incentivised soybean farmers to sell beans now, as the current scheme ends at the end of September, but rumours of a potential extension of the scheme have started circulating in the market.

However, Argentine officials have denied an extension to the ‘soy dollar’ and has asked market participants not to feed ‘fake news’ as rumours start to gain ground.

“As we said from day one, the exchange rate regime adopted this month is transitory and will not be extended… Let's not feed fake news that does not contribute anything to the work we have been doing for the growth of the economy and the productive sectors,” Juan Jose Bahillo, Agriculture Secretary, said on his social media account.

Sep 15 - NOPA August U.S. soybean crush seen at 166.110 million bushels, down from prior month (survey)
The U.S. soybean processing pace in August likely slowed from the prior month as some crushers idled facilities for seasonal maintenance ahead of the Midwest harvest, analysts said ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Thursday. NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed 166.110 million bushels of soybeans last month, according to the average of estimates from nine analysts.

Sep 15 - India's rice exports set to fall 25% as levy make shipments expensive
India's rice exports could fall by around a quarter this year as New Delhi's restrictions force buyers to switch to rival suppliers which are offering the grain at a cheaper price, trade and industry officials said. Late last week, the world's biggest exporter of the grain banned shipments of broken rice and imposed a 20% duty on exports of various other grades as the country tries to boost supplies and calm prices after below-average monsoon rainfall curtailed planting.

Sep 15  - EU Morning Comments ( StoneX )
- US export sales are due to come back on track from today with the past 4 weeks dumped onto traders data sheets.
- The trade were anxious that the Chinese would make hay while the sun wasn’t shining on their trading activities.
- The most recent conversation out of Russia revolves around the potential for something of a barter allowing Russian Ammonia flow out of Ukraine via the corridor and as such guaranteeing the flow of grains.
- Saudi tendering for a half million tonnes of wheat and will be interesting to see if shippers go with the high risk low price Russian execution or the low risk high price (presumably Baltic) option.

- Baltic traders noting both farmers and buyers are gone AWOL. Seems to me a lot of paralysis on the market a present.
- The SPR game in the US will reach a point where the dumped barrels will need to be re-bought, the only question is when and this will turn a big weight on the market into floatation device.
- Recent updates on new crop winter wheat plantings in Ukraine paint a pretty bleak picture, the flip side is that it opens the door for significnat increases in corn production.
- If we have a calmed scenario next spring with cheaper inputs and an expanded area then we could have a monster Ukraine corn crop.
- This can still be net negative wheat as it unlocks more EU wheat export potential in the corn for wheat swap we do with the world.

Sep 15 - USDA Resumes Weekly Export Sales Reporting Title

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service will resume weekly export sales reporting on September Thursday, September 15, 2022. The reports will be available online at:  U.S. Export Sales | USDA FAS.

This week’s release will include data for the previous four weeks:

 

Sep 14 - EU morning comments (StoneX)
- Putin meets Xi after a week of significant losses in Ukraine. That can create some headlines moves to grains as he tries to reasert control on matters.
- The US is facing rail strikes that at face value can pressure nearby futures and by definition spreads. It should in principle support cash markets away from this logistical disruption. The other thing it hurts is US crush margins where they struggle to move their products.
- There was some discussion in our chat group on the palmoil/beanoil spread that now offers a near $700/tonne discount for palmoil versus beanoil. The respect reduced elasticity of prices are becoming evident. In a different Universe without any ESG conversations and without growing biodiesel mandates in the US the market would never allow such spreads. However, in this Universe we have a growing share of market participants that just wont/cant use CPO due to environmental issues to reduce demand no matter how cheap it looks. On the flip side over in the US beanoil is being bought up regardless of how expensive it gets to satisdy rising demand to make biodiesel and renewable diesel.
- This is a feature mostly cursing Western markets with Asian and African more price sensitive and will gravitate towards the cheaper vegoil. The steady de-globalisation, de-commoditisation and de-elestification of markets is going to be the key feature of food supply over the next decade.

Sep 14 - China cuts 21/22 edible oil output, imports on high prices (AgriCensus)

China has reduced its forecast for edible vegetable oil production and imports for the 2021/22 marketing year on higher international prices and lower import margins, the monthly update to China's Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (Casde) showed on Tuesday.

China's marking year for vegetable oil, corn and soybean runs from October to September.

The country is expected to produce 27.52 million mt of edible vegetable oil in the 2021/22 marketing year, down 160,000 mt from the previous estimate.

The cut came from lowered rapeseed oil production, with a decline of 160,000 mt from last month's outlook to 5.78 million mt.

Imports of edible vegetable oil for the current marketing year are pegged at 5.93 million mt, compared with 6.6 million mt estimated in August.

Of the total, rapeoil and soyoil imports for 2021/22 were cut by 300,000 mt and 70,000 mt from their previous outlooks to 1 million mt and 380,000 mt respectively.

"China's imports of rapeseed and edible vegetable oil in 2021/22 were lower than the estimates in the previous month, on high prices of vegetable oil in the international market and low import profits," the agency said.

Consumption of edible vegetable oil was expected to be stable at 36.34 million mt.

Accordingly, the year-end balance between supply and demand for 2021/22 edible oil dropped 820,000 mt from the previous estimates to -3.16 million mt.

Chinese government analysts have maintained unchanged estimates for edible oil production and imports of 29.25 million mt and 8.43 million mt respectively.

For other essential agricultural products, estimates in the report remained unchanged for both the 2021/22 and 2022/23 marketing years.

Estimates for corn production and imports for the next marketing year were stable at 272.56 million mt and 18 million mt.

"Although continuous high temperature and lack of rain had a certain impact on corn yield in southern Shaanxi and the Sichuan Basin, the area was limited, and the overall impact was not significant," the report said.

On the demand side, "corn industry consumption is weak, as deep processing industry is suffering from widespread losses… (while) feed demand is expected to increase, as breeding profit rebounded and wheat usage in feed substitution declined," said Casde.

Corn imports and production in the 2021/22 marketing year went unchanged at 20 million mt and 272.55 million mt.

For soybeans, China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) also kept its forecasts for imports and production for the new crop year at 95.2 million mt and 19.48 million mt.

Soybean consumption for 2022/23 remained at 112.87 million mt, leaving the year-end balance between supply and demand unchanged at 1.66 million mt.

Sep 14 - France expects drought-hit maize crop to hit 32-year low
France, the European Union's biggest grain grower, on Tuesday reduced its forecast for this year's drought-hit maize crop by 1 million tonnes to the lowest level since 1990. Grain maize production, excluding crop grown for seeds, was now expected at 11.33 million tonnes, 8% below the farm ministry's initial projection in August.

Sep 14 - Argentina's soybean farmers speed up sales after FX boost
Argentine soybean farmers have sold around 57% of the 2021/22 crop, the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday citing data through last week, reflecting a boost after the government offered them a preferential foreign exchange rate. Argentina last week bumped up the exchange rate in an effort to speed stalled sales and replenish dwindling foreign currency reserves, after many soybean farmers held off selling their product due to growing speculation of a devaluation of the country's peso currency.

Sep 13  - EU morning comments (StoneX)
- Clearly soybeans were the leader and clearly a 200mbu carryout is a level that the market is not willing to allow achieve or dip below so higher values try to erode demand and avoide a repeat of 2013/14 when the carryout fell to below 100mbu. That year November beans trade up to $14/bu and May beans at the back end of the season traded to $15/bu. The more likely source of demand erosion probably exports and in particular China but we need evidence to substanciate that and in the absence of export sales we wil lahve to wait.
- Crush margins have fallen back again and while still strong the market is taking the good look off of that demand component.
- The market was probably betting that if there was a weak yield that corn would have been the better candidate but at 172.50 it was pretty much as expected. Its carryout though is trending tighter. - On the wheat side then the Black sea gains which leads to an increase in the scale of the uncertainty, the share of new crop wheat now shifting even more to Black sea origins.
- In vegoils it was a case of either palmoil is cheap or beanoil was expensive, based on the moves overnight the market seems to be taking the view that palmoil is cheap.
- Soymeal retesting the highs keeps a level of stress on feeders.
- The good news is gas prices are the lowest in a month.

Sep 12  - US looming railway strike poses threat to grain movement (AgriCensus)

- A United States railway shutdown set for 0001 Friday, September 16 has become the latest grain supply chain threat. Currently, the US rail industry has reached tentative agreements with 10 of the 12 unions involved in current negotiations, with the two remaining unions accounting for 57,000 engineers and conductors that are still negotiating pay and post-covid working conditions.

- A nationwide rail shutdown could cost the US economy more than $2 billion per day, as freight railroads serve nearly every agricultural, industrial, wholesale, retail and resource-based sector of the US economy, according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR). According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), railroads account for more than 20% of the nation's grain shipments. The railway systems are critical during peak harvest season and a disruption would prompt grain processors to shut down, overwhelming grain storage facilities, boosting the chances of spoilage, and sending basis prices higher.

- Railroads move approximately one-third of US grain exports, which is especially crucial at this time amid the war in Ukraine and ongoing supply concerns.
- Additionally, over half of all fertilizer moves by rail year-round.
“If farmers do not receive fertilizer, it results in lower crop yields, higher food prices, and more inflation for consumers,” Corey Rosenbusch, the Fertilizer Institute (TFI)’s President and CEO, told lawmakers.
“TFI would like to see an agreement between the rail carriers and labor unions,” concluded Rosenbusch.

- Under the Railway Labor Act, the carriers and the unions that have not reached agreements remain in a “cooling off” period, which ends at 00:01 on September 16. The United States' largest freight railroad companies — including Norfolk Southern, BNSF, Union Pacific, and CSX are implementing contingency plans as early as Monday, September 12 ahead of the possible strike.

Sep 09 - Wasde preview: US, global corn 2022/23 ending stocks seen lower

The September update of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s influential World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) report is projected to show declines in its estimates for the US and global ending stockpiles in the 2022/23 crop year, while increasing ending stock projections for the old crop year, an Agricensus poll showed Wednesday.

According to the poll, analysts forecast US production will decline by 269 million bushels (6.83 million mt) to 14.09 billion bushels (358 million mt) from 14.359 billion bushels estimated in August, as yield projections decrease.   

For the new crop, yields are seen at 172.5 bushels per acre (bpa), down from 175.4/bpa projected in August, and the harvested area is projected to total 81.7 million acres, down from 81.8 million acres last month.

Declining production is seen leading to lower ending stocks in the US, with analysts projecting the report will show 1.206 billion bushels (31 million mt), down by 182 million bushels (4.6 million mt) from the August Wasde.

Agricensus received a wide range of US ending stock estimates, ranging from 1.006 billion bushels (25.6 million mt) to 1.41 billion (35.8 million mt).   

US ending stocks for the 2021/22 crop year are estimated to be 17 million bushels (400,000 mt) higher at 1.547 billion bushels (39.3 million mt).

Global ending stockpiles for the new crop year are projected to decline by 5.3 million mt from August’s report to 301 million mt.

Global stockpiles for the old crop year are anticipated to climb by 200,000 mt from last month's report to 312 million mt.

Respondents expect that September’s update to the Wasde report will leave Argentina’s new crop estimate at 55 million mt, and the 2021/22 output projections at 53 million mt, which is also unchanged from the August report.

The September Wasde is seen leaving Brazil’s 2022/23 production estimate at 126 million mt, while maintaining the old crop projection at 116 million mt.

The USDA will release its September 2022 Wasde report at 1200 Eastern Time on Monday, September 12.

Sep 09 - India's rice curbs to lift prices, stoke food inflation worries
India's decision to curb rice exports is expected to lift world prices of the staple and trigger a rally in rival wheat and corn markets, deepening concerns over food inflation. India banned exports of broken rice and imposed a 20% duty on exports of various grades of rice on Thursday as the world's biggest exporter of the grain tries to augment supplies and calm local prices after below-average monsoon rainfall curtailed planting.

Sep 09 - Frosts hit Argentina wheat crop though losses limited
Frosts recorded in the last two weeks in Argentina have caused some damage to the South American country's 2022/23 wheat crop, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday. The frost damage adds to the impact caused by drought seen in recent months, which led the key grains exchange to cut its wheat planting forecast from an initial level of 6.6 million hectares to 6.1 million hectares.

Sep 08 - Putin to look at revising 'cheating' Ukrainian grain export deal
President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia and the developing world had been "cheated" by a UN-brokered Ukrainian grain export deal, vowing to look to revise its terms to limit the countries that can receive shipments. Speaking at an economic forum in the city of Vladivostok in Russia's Far East, Putin took aim at the deal, brokered by Turkey and the United Nations, saying Ukrainian grain exports were not going to the world's poorest countries as originally intended.

Sep 08 - Labour shortages set up Malaysia for third year of palm oil losses
Malaysian palm oil planters are letting thousands of tonnes of fruits rot as the third year of a worker shortage has left companies unable to increase their harvesting during the peak production season. Palm oil output in Malaysia, the world's second-largest producer, is forecast to decline, or at best remain unchanged, from last year's 18.1 million tonnes, according to planters and analysts.

Sep 08 - Wheat markets gain on Putin comments about grain corridor (AgriCensus)

Global wheat markets reacted strongly Wednesday to comments on the Ukraine grain corridor made by Russian President Vladimir Putin, with a sharp increase seen in futures prices on exchanges.

CME soft red winter (SRW) wheat futures jumped by 47c/bu to trade at $8.64/bu for the December contract as of 10:00 Eastern Time, while Euronext's December wheat contract gained €13.50/mt to €331.25/mt at the same time.

The rise followed Putin's allegation that the West had deceived Russia and the developing world with the UN-brokered grain corridor deal, suggesting most of the vessels that have left Ukraine since the deal was signed have gone to European countries.

This followed similar comments about the grain corridors expressed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov earlier Wednesday.

Putin also said he would talk with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan about possibly redirecting grains from Ukraine to developing countries.

The comments, which were made during an economic forum in Vladivostok in Russia's Far East, have also caused some uncertainty in the physical market, as trade sources said some sellers decided to step out given the news, while some buyers showed higher interest amid concerns that the deal might be broken.

The deal was signed on July 22 and was agreed for 120 days, meaning that it would end on November 20 unless it is extended.

Since the signing of the agreement, Ukraine has moved 2.1 million mt of grains, oilseeds, meals, and oil through its deep-sea ports, with at least a quarter of that amount being goods that were stuck in the ports since February, when Russia invaded Ukraine.

The European Union was the top destination for Ukrainian exports under the deal with at least 685,584 mt headed there, but this is far from most of the grain.

It includes 552,087 mt of corn; Ukrainian origin corn is currently the cheapest origin into the EU, where there is a deficit of the crop following the hot, dry spring and summer.

All the ships are obliged to enter Turkey for inspection before entering or exiting Ukrainian ports, Turkey remained the second biggest destination for Ukrainian goods with at least 451,000 mt destined for Turkey, including 144,400 mt of wheat.

Egypt has imported 204,260 mt of grains, including 179,260 mt of corn, while 120,000 mt of corn were loaded to South Korea, the same amount to Iran, and 62,340 mt of corn and 45,000 mt of sunmeal moved to China.

Two wheat shipments have been made under the World Food Program led by the UN, with 23,500 mt heading to Djubutti and 37,500 mt to Turkey to process it into flour and re-export further to Yemen.

Additionally, 51,000 mt of wheat were exported to Kenya and 28,600 mt of wheat left to Somalia.

Ukraine used to be the main supplier of wheat to Djubutti, which imported around 254,204 mt of wheat annually on average for the last five years, 119,700 mt of which on average came from Ukraine.

While Yemen is among the biggest wheat importers worldwide with annual imports of around 3 million mt, the share of suppliers is divided between the US, Australia, Ukraine, and Russia, and so far in the 2022 financial year, Australia has been the biggest supplier amid advantageous freight rates and relatively cheap prices, followed by Ukraine and US.

Grain corridor helps lower prices

While the Russian authorities have alleged the grain corridor does not help world food security, the price trend shows a different picture, as the opening of the ports brought more supply availability and prices have been on the decline ever since the deal was signed.

The price of Russian 12.5% wheat has dropped by almost $50/mt since the first vessel left Ukrainian ports, while Ukrainian 11.5% has lost around $28/mt during the same period, and European origins have fallen by around $28-29/mt on average, and prices even show a slow decline since mid-May when the first talk of the agreement was heard in the market.

Following Putin's comments Wednesday, however, the offer idea jumped by at least $5/mt day-on-day for Russian 12.5% to $315/mt, but trade sources said that sellers were not overly keen to sell at the moment.

Russian export issues

Russian exports have meanwhile been about 20% lower than last year, with the total figure for wheat during the first two months of the marketing year pegged at 5.1 million mt.

This is despite the fact that the wheat crop is expected to be a record one, with estimates from local agencies of up to 95 million mt in 2022/23.

Early estimates put wheat export at around 43-44 million mt, while around 40 million mt is now thought to be closer to reality.

Trade sources have suggested that sanctions continue to create issues for the Russian grain trade, as while the export of agriculture products is not sanctioned, the banks that companies work with are, so some payment difficulties remain.

Along with this, there is still an issue with freight availability, which Ukraine also has faced; the number of vessels coming to the region has increased, but the freight is still significantly higher than to other regions due to the risks.

Russian traders have also said that origination was not going smoothly, as farmers were not keen to sell at a lower price, while the export tax and the strong rouble have limited the space for some movement.

However, as the export tax has been on the decline during the last few weeks, the situation is expected to improve.

Another issue that both countries face is buyers being cautious with Black Sea supply, especially as a number of trade sources said there are issues with opening letters of credit for shipments as the region remains risky.

Demand has also been curbed as the buyers expected further price declines as more wheat becomes available from Ukraine, with the grain corridor working normally and a record crop in Russia potentially weighing on prices.

Recently higher activity has been seen on the coaster size market, however, as freight rates fell, and Russian origin became cheaper than Ukrainian.

Sep 08  - Europe Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- Wheat is the centre point of attention as the inevitable noise from Russia as we look forward to the November end point to the current agrement to the export corridor. The political games will be a pillar of grain pricing. So there is a bit of a brain melt when it comes to to why wheat rallies on any uncertainty surrounding the corridor. On the one hand, Ukraine is currently a feed grain supplier, that is corn is the largest share of exports at present and there is some doubt about the quality specs of any (OC) wheat in terms of millability. So in principle course grains should get more support if exports are stalled.
- However, the EU grain swap with the world presists in the form of the EU imports corn and exports milling wheat. In an over simplified way: Shut off the Ukrainian corn tap and you shut of the EU milling wheat tap.
- Wheat demand (major N. hemisphere exporters) for the 1st two months of the MY are down 18% or so, this number will get smaller but we could hit Christmas in double digit % declines in exports.
- The barley trade are not terribly excited about their export demand either.
- Further demand destruction coming up in palmoil exports where palmoil currently a  $700/tonne discount to soybean oil.
- Chinese soybean imports running light of other years but ends the MY in line with the USDA.
- EU ethanol prices under pressure as cheap Brazilian expected to land over coming weeks to stress margins further.

Sep 07 - Argentina’s soyoil plummets on bumper farmer bean sales (AgriCensus)

Soyoil basis premiums in Argentina dropped sharply Tuesday on a bumper volume sold by soybean farmers as a result of the government's implementation of the improved 'soy dollar' scheme September 5.

October basis premiums for Argentine soyoil were assessed at a 8.5 cts/lb discount to October futures as of 1800 BST (1700 GMT) Tuesday, sharply down by 335 basis points from the previous assessment made on September 2.

A plummeting premium and a lower underlying futures contract in Chicago resulted in soyoil cash prices falling to $1,257/mt FOB Up River, the lowest levels in over six weeks.

Soyoil premiums were under pressure Tuesday as approximately one million mt of soybeans were sold by farmers on the prior day – the highest daily trade volume since early 2017 according to the Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR).

The boost in sales was due to the implementation of an improved soy dollar which sets an exchange rate of 200 pesos to the dollar, a jump of 37% from the previous measure, applicable from September 5 until September 30.

And there are market expectations that soybean sales will continue, as the new measure has improved the value of soybeans, incentivizing producers to sell stock they were withholding.

As a reference, the Argentine government is seeking to collect $5 billion dollars, which would be the equivalent of 10 million mt of soybeans sold by farmers.

“Despite the weaker CBOT soyoil underlying futures, we expect the South American CDSBO [soyoil] basis to stay under pressure going forward,” Anilkumar Bagani, research head at Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group told Agricensus.

It is estimated that a total of 13.3 million mt of soybeans are yet to be sold for the 2021/22 campaign according to the BCR.

Sep 07 - Russia questions U.N.-brokered grain, fertilizer export deal
Russia on Tuesday questioned a U.N.-brokered deal with Ukraine to boost grain and fertilizer exports by both countries, accusing Western states of failing to honor pledges to help facilitate Moscow's shipments.  Russia and Ukraine are both key suppliers of food and fertilizer, but Moscow's Feb. 24 invasion of its neighbor stalled Kyiv's Black Sea exports and stoked a global food crisis.

Sep 07 - U.S. corn, soy condition ratings unchanged in latest week -USDA
Weekly condition ratings for U.S. corn and soybean crops held steady in the latest week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday, bucking analyst estimates for a decline as dry conditions gripped portions of the western Midwest. In its weekly crop progress report, the USDA rated 54% of the U.S. corn crop and 57% of the soybean in good to excellent condition, unchanged from a week earlier.

Sep 06  - Australia eyes record farm export earnings from bumper wheat harvests
Australian farmers are expected to earn a record amount from agriculture exports this financial year, the country's chief commodity forecaster said on Tuesday, as it raised its estimate on the back of favourable weather and high global prices. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) said farm export earnings could total a record A$70.3 billion ($48 billion) for 2022-23.

Sep 06  - Big crops loom even as Brazil soy, corn growers face high input bills
- StoneX
Brazilian farmers will spend more to nourish crops like soybeans and corn this season, according to agribusiness consultancy StoneX on Monday, reflecting a rise in prices exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine. A soybean farmer in the south of the country spent on average 1,300 reais ($251.65) per hectare to buy nutrients in the last season.

Sep 06  - Russian wheat prices fall with harvest pressure
Russian wheat export prices fell last week under pressure from the new crop, analysts said on Monday, adding that demand from importers was rising. State grain buyers for Egypt and Algeria bought Russian wheat last week.

Sep 06  - Argentina farmers say soy FX boost a 'patch' but fails to solve issue
Argentina's farmers said Monday that the government's decision to improve the exchange rate for soybeans exported in September is a temporary "patch" that will likely boost sales of the crop during the month, but fails to solve root issues. Market speculation and fluctuation between the exchange rates of the devalued official Argentine peso and the stronger black market rate have led farmers in the world's largest exporter of soybean oil and meal to stall sales to get more of a bang for their buck.

Sep 05  - Strategie Grains revises EU rapeseed crop up but sunseed crop cut on yields (AgriCensus)

A leading European analytics agency has revised the rapeseed crop up 4% from earlier estimates made in June, while the sunflower seed crop has been slashed by 11% on lower yields. The French agency Strategie Grains expects the EU’s 2022/23 rapeseed crop to come in at 19.15 million mt, up 4% from previous estimates, as an increase in yields leads to better-than-expected rapeseed output.

The area planted with rapeseed was estimated a 5.79 million hectares, a 10% increase from last season, while yields were pegged at 3.31 mt/ha, up 3% on the prior season. But the largest changes were made to the forecast sunflowerseed crop, which is expected to come in at 9.17 million mt in 2022/23, down 11% from expectations made in June, as drought-impacted yields.

The sunseed crop yields were slashed by 12% from June’s estimates, coming in at 1.84 mt/ha, 22% lower than the yields obtained in the 2021/22 season. Planted area with sunseed remained unchanged from June’s estimate at 4.99 million hectares, at a jump of 13% on the prior season.   

For soybeans, output is pegged a 2.49 million mt in 2022/23, down 10% from earlier estimates, while yields have been slashed by 11% to 2.35 mt/ha. The area planted with soybeans is expected to be 11% up on the 2021/22 season.

Sep 05 - Argentina offers exchange-rate sweetener to boost soy exports
Argentina's Economy Minister Sergio Massa announced new incentives beginning on Monday for soybean farmers to sell more of their stock by accessing a better exchange rate, in a bid to boost exports and hard currency reserves. The Sunday announcement covers incentives that are set to last through Sept. 30.

Sep 05 - Brazilian mills limit wheat imports as inflation dents domestic demand
Brazilian mills have limited imports of wheat due to rising prices and the impact of domestic inflation on consumption, which affected demand for pasta, cookies and bread, industry representatives and analysts said on Friday. Wheat imports through July reached the lowest levels since 2017, totaling about 3.7 million tonnes, according to government data.

Sep 02 - Egypt's GASC buys another 120k mt of Russian wheat in private deal (AgriCensus)

- Egypt's state grain importer General Authority Supply Commodities (GASC) has booked 120,000 mt of Russian wheat for November 1-10 shipment within a private deal, after passing on a purchase earlier this week, trade sources have told Agricensus.

- GASC paid $340/mt CFR Egypt for two panamax cargoes to Solaris.

- The latest purchase that has been reported done by GASC was on August 23, when 240,000 mt of Russian wheat were booked for September 20 - November 11 at $368/mt from GTCS.

- So far, GASC has booked 2.85 million mt for the 2022/23 marketing year, more than double the volume Egypt booked at the same stage last year.

- That figure included 1.56 million mt of wheat bought outside of tender.

Sep 02 - Russian wheat exports expected to rise in September
Russian wheat exports are expected to rise to 4 million tonnes in September from 3.5 million tonnes in August as the record-high crop begins to reach the market, traders and industry analysts said. The supplies from the world's largest wheat exporter will still be low compared with September last year as they contend with shipments from Europe and Ukraine, a strong rouble and problems with logistics and payments caused by Western sanctions imposed on Moscow, they added.

Sep 02 - India could soon approve sugar exports in two tranches
India is set to allow sugar exports in two tranches for the next season beginning in October, as the world's biggest producer of the sweetener tries to balance the interests of its farmers and consumers, government and industry officials told Reuters. Exports by India, which has restricted shipments in the current season, could weigh on global prices and help swell supplies across Asia.

Sep 01  - Europe Pre Open Agri Market Comments (StoneX)
- The talk of equity traders is that the most recent recovery in the stock market was a bear market rally and we are now in a very negative sentiment environment again. The EU consumer is only now starting to get initial understanding of the extent to which their energy costs are going to rise. This is just the beggining, not even the end of the beginning.
- The stakes are rising for all concerned as Russian forces churn through their forces and amunition and the EU churns through capital. The epicentre of the conflict is now the Zaporizhzhia nuclear facility. Who knows the reality but significant radiation leak is the ever nearing dark grey swan paddling across the lake and the only realy financial insurance against a major leak at the facility is call options. In that regard, implied volatility has been getting cheaper with the price break.
- We will "probably" see a major decline in economic activity in the EU in the next 6-12months, this will "probably" reduce demand for "stuff" and "probably" this will exceed any reduction in supplies and "probably" weaken prices further, at least in dolar terms. This can be a fair view of the macro market today but you want to own calls before any major issues in regards to Zaporizhzhia, not during or after.
- Crude oil back below 90/barrelt WTI and based on recent relationships this is not supportive to corn price ideas.

Sep 01 - ISO forecasts global sugar surplus in 2022/23 season
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) on Wednesday forecast a global sugar surplus in the 2022/23 October to September season, driven by record production. The inter-governmental body's quarterly update projected a global surplus of 5.6 million tonnes in 2022/23, compared with a deficit of 1.3 million tonnes the previous season.

Sep 01 - Indonesia lowers thresholds on palm oil export levies
The world's top palm oil producer Indonesia lowered the thresholds for its levies on shipments of the commodity on Wednesday, following a similar move to adjust export taxes.  The new levies come into effect on Nov. 1, marking an end to several months where the country waived the tariffs to encourage shipments amid a glut in domestic stock.

Aug 31 - Scientists look to solve ozone threat to Africa's food security
Plant scientist Felicity Hayes checks on her crops inside one of eight tiny domed greenhouses set against the Welsh hills. The potted pigeon pea and papaya planted in spring are leafy and green, soon to bear fruit. In a neighbouring greenhouse, those same plants look sickly and stunted. The pigeon pea is an aged yellow with pockmarked leaves; the papaya trees reach only half as tall.

Aug 31 - Argentine grains producers have sold 51.6% of 21/22 soybeans so far
Argentina's grain producers have sold 51.6% of the 2021/22 soybean harvest so far, the country's Ministry of Agriculture said on Tuesday, lagging behind the 62% sales rate reported at the same point in the previous season. Argentina soybean production in the 2021/22 cycle was 44 million tonnes, down from 46 million tonnes the previous cycle, according to government data, with the country serving as the world's leading exporter of meal derived from the oilseed.

Aug 30  - Canadian farmers to produce more wheat than expected, most canola in three years
Canadian farmers will harvest more wheat than expected, and the biggest canola crop in three years, a report featuring the government's first official harvest estimates showed on Monday. Canada's crop production is rebounding strongly after severe drought ravaged last year's harvest - welcome news for a world coping with stranded grain and sunflower oil stocks in Ukraine due to war.

Aug 30  - Sovecon ups forecast for Russia's 2022/23 wheat exports
The Russia-focused Sovecon consultancy said on Monday it had raised its forecast for Russia's wheat exports in the 2022/23 marketing season which started on July 1 by 200,000 tonnes to 43.1 million tonnes. Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, supplying the Middle East and Africa. Its exports are down so far this season due to a strong rouble, state export tax and problems with banks and logistics caused by Western sanctions imposed on Moscow.

Aug 30  - Ukraine's agriculture exports to double in next few months now ports open
- minister
Ukraine's agricultural exports could rise to 6 million-6.5 million tonnes in October, double the volume seen in July, as its sea ports gradually reopen, the country's agriculture minister said on Monday. Ukraine is one of the world's biggest exporter of grains, oilseeds and vegetable oils, but its exports have slumped this year, driving up global food prices, as Russia's invasion destroyed some agricultural land and the country's Black Sea ports were closed off.

Aug 30  - Bangladesh to import rice from Vietnam and India to replenish reserves
Bangladesh is finalising deals with Vietnam and India to import a total of 330,000 tonnes of rice as it races to replenish reserves and cool domestic prices, two officials with direct knowledge of the matter said on Monday. Soaring prices of the staple grain for the country's 165 million people pose a problem for the government, which plans to expand cut-price rice sales to help people hard-hit by high costs.

Aug 29  - Canadian farmers seen reaping bumper wheat, canola, corn crops (AgriCensus)

- Canadian farmers are expected to harvest more wheat, canola, barley, oats, soybeans, and corn for grain in 2022 compared to last year, according to yield model estimates using satellite imagery and agroclimatic data, Statistics Canada said in a report Monday. Increased production was largely driven by better growing conditions in Western Canada, where parts of the Prairies had higher-than-normal temperatures and milder weather than in 2021.
"I know farmers are optimistic! Fingers crossed good weather here on out and should be an overall really good year for most," Ryan Riese, the national director of agriculture for the country’s biggest bank, RBC, told Agricensus.

- Canadian agricultural output was crippled last year because of drought and high temperatures in parts of the Prairies.  
"This makes sense given last year in the West we had very dry, and drought like conditions so yields and overall production was down. Farmers still had better than average years given prices were so good," Riese said.

- Three-quarters of the crop in Alberta were rated as in good-to-excellent condition, while conditions in Manitoba were better than last year with near-normal yields, and there are concerns about below-normal rainfall in parts of Saskatchewan, reports from the provincial governments show. In eastern Canada, there are drier-than-average conditions in much of southern Ontario, while the east of the province and Quebec experience higher-than-normal precipitation.

- Wheat output is expected to surge by 55.1% from last year to 34.6 million mt, in large part because of higher yields, which are expected to increase by 41.6% to 51.1 bushels per acre. The jump in total wheat production is mostly due to spring wheat, which is expected to rise by 57.3% to 25.6 million mt because of gains in both yield and harvested area.

- Statistics Canada projected that durum wheat yields will surge by 101.0% to 40.6 bushels per acre, helping propel a 113% increase in production to 6.5 million mt.
"Conditions are very good in about 1/3 of the growing area and poor in 1/3 of the growing area. Most were expecting 6 million" durum production estimate, a Canadian broker told Agricensus.

- Canola or rapeseed production is expected to increase 42% to 19.5 million mt this year, because improved growing conditions are boosting yields    

- Corn for grain production is projected to rise by 6% to 14.8 million mt, because of both improving yields and an increase in harvested acreage.

- Soybean production is projected to rise by 1.8% to 6.4 million mt, while barley production is expected to surge by 34% to 9.3 million mt and oat output is seen rising by 59% to 4.5 million mt.

Aug 29  - European Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- In a simple sense, the pro farmer tour was at face value supportive to corn, neutral/negative beans, or at least that’s one interpretation of it (corn yield below average, beans above).
- Like with wheat we always need to see where we are in prices terms when bullish news hits.
- Both beans and corn have spent the last month highly correlated to crude oil markets for whatever reason, maybe thats by accident or by design but the correlation in the 10mins chart is hard to dispute. So with the recovery in oil based energy prices corn and beans followed with most ticks during the month to get to attractive prices again for farmers. September beans were particularly strong, spot supplies are tight and fresh new crop supplies are keenly anticipated, no doubt the options expiry played a roll in the inverse strengthening to over an
150 USc/bu inverse.
- There remains an error in the order of 6-7% between pro farmer numbers and final USDA figures. Stock are getting hammered back down in the background amidst very weak consumer sentiment.
- Inspectors are to visit Ukraines Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant as shelling continues around the facility. You want to own puts against a likely recession and calls against a not unlikely meltdown.
- Welcome rains across much of EU should spur more confident planting.

Aug 29  - Indonesia increases 2022 biodiesel allocation to 11.03 mln kl - statement
Indonesia has raised its 2022 biodiesel allocation to 11.03 million kilolitres amid expectations of rising demand in the fourth quarter while it extends an export levy waiver to maintain price stability, a senior minister said on Monday. The allocation of biodiesel, which is made from palm oil in Indonesia, will be increased from 10.15 million kilolitres, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hartarto, said in a statement.

Aug 29  - Pro Farmer sees U.S. corn harvest smaller than gov't outlook, soy harvest bigger

U.S. corn production will fall below government forecasts as hot and dry weather robbed the crop of its harvest potential, advisory service Pro Farmer, a division of Farm Journal Media, said on Friday after a tour of seven major production states. But Pro Farmer projected the soybean harvest will be slightly bigger than the U.S. Agriculture Department's record outlook.

Aug 29  - Kazakhstan plans to scrap wheat export caps next month - minister
Kazakhstan plans to scrap wheat and flour export quotas next month as forecasts for a bumper harvest ease concerns about domestic supplies, Agriculture Minister Yerbol Karashukeyev said on Saturday. Central Asia's biggest grains exporter introduced the export limits in May to keep the local market stocked and cool inflation linked to rising global food prices.

Aug 29  - More grain must be shifted from Ukraine's silos, says U.N. official
Millions of tonnes of food from previous harvests in Ukraine still need to be cleared to make room in silos for the next one, the U.N. coordinator for a grains deal said on Saturday. More than 1 million tonnes of grains and other foods have so far been exported under a grains deal brokered by Turkey and the United Nations.

Aug 26  - Canada's grain, oilseeds export pace falls by 29% week to Aug 21 (AgriCensus)

- Canada's grain and oilseeds exports pace decreased by 29% through the week ending August 21, data from Canadian Grain Commission showed Friday. Total exports for the marketing year amounted to 1 million mt, showing a 33% decrease year-on-year, with 279,000 mt, shipped during the reporting week.

- The weekly wheat export pace decreased by 57% compared to the previous week, bringing the total wheat export figure for the current marketing year to 662,800 mt, which is 32% lower than last year.

- Barley exports during the week amounted to only 3,600 mt which is 43% below the previous week's pace, putting the total figure for the current marketing year at 65,500 mt, a sharp increase as only 2,300 mt was exported during the same period last year.

- Durum weekly export pace decreased by 32% to 40,300 mt, putting the total since August 1 at 109,700 mt, which is 58% below the previous year's figures.

- Rapeseeds weekly export pace has increased twenty-two-fold to 62,900 mt, bringing total exports since the beginning of the season to 75,200 mt, or 60% down year-on-year.

- Some 12,600 mt of corn was exported during the reported week, putting year-to-date figures at 45,600 mt, while no corn volumes were exported during the same period last year.

Aug 26  - French wheat protein slips further in latest harvest results
Nearly complete quality results from France's soft wheat harvest showed slightly weaker protein levels than in initial samples, underscoring a decline compared with last year, according to data from farm office FranceAgriMer on Thursday. For protein, 27% of soft wheat analysed so far came below 11% content, often a minimum standard for milling markets, compared with 24% in initial results published last week by FranceAgriMer with crop institute Arvalis.

Aug 26  - EU slashes maize crop forecast again, increases wheat harvest estimate

The European Commission on Thursday cut its forecast for this year's maize harvest in the European Union by 10%, the second steep cut in a row amid severe drought. The Commission reduced its projection of usable maize (corn) production in the EU in 2022/23 to 59.3 million tonnes, down from 65.8 million expected a month ago.

Aug 26  - India restricts wheat flour exports to bring down record prices

India's cabinet on Thursday approved a policy to restrict wheat flour exports to calm prices in the local market, the government said in a statement. New Delhi banned wheat exports in mid-May as a scorching heatwave curtailed output and domestic prices hit a record high. In July India asked traders to secure permission before exporting wheat flour.

Aug 25  - European Agri Market Pre Open Comments (Stones)
- The EU economy has few places to hide as we head into a winter of discontent. Right now is the least energy intensive window of time in the energy year, in the next few weeks heating requirements will rise for consumers and diesel needs rise for farmers.
- Diesel is super-duper cheap compared to gas and the market won’t let that sustain.
- The euro is doing well to not stray too far from parity but with consumer confidence at all-time lows and little prospect of the energy component of living costs easing if the EU don’t move quickly to raise interest rates the euro seems in serious trouble.
- This has implications for where we want our hedges, if the euro is going to weaken/dollar strengthen then you want to have longs on Matif and shorts on CME. You need to watch you cash balances in your accounts and having short dollar balances in this environment should be checked/managed.
- Russia is the conundrum, they have it and are sharply priced but their (official) flows are slow. In the absence of harvest progress numbers its finger in the air when it comes to production, they will I assume "officially" be integrating invaded parts of Ukraine into their production and the risk of double counting is high to inflate the combined Ukriane+Russia production numbers.
- Fertiliser producers continue to announce shutdowns.

Aug 25  - Russia lowers sunoil export duty by 85% to $143.4/mt in September (Agrisensus)

- Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture has lowered the expected export duty on sunflower oil from September 1 to 85% below the August level, coinciding with the start of the new 2022/23 season, according to the ministry’s official website. The ministry set a tax on sunflower oil exports in September of RUB 8.621.3/mt, equivalent to $143.4/mt, which is almost two times lower than the August level.

- The September tax is based on an indicative price of $1,583.0/mt, down $250.30/mt from the August level, the ministry said. This tax will remain in effect until a new update is published.

- In July 2022, the Russian government changed the export duty formula and introduced a new duty in rubles after a sharp fall in the ruble exchange rate against other currencies, with the introduction of a new base and exchange rate. It also changed the publication date for the duty from the 15th of the month to the 25th of the month. The move was meant to help exporters be more competitive on international markets.

Aug 25  - European Agri Market Pre Open Comments ( StoneX )
- Heavy rains are expected over much Rhine/Danube watershed of Austria/Switzerland and this opening the door for processors to moves some product if they can catch some of the rivers resulting waves.
- This opening the door front end weakness in the biodiesel markets where premiums have fallen $200/tonne in the past week. It comes as some blenders have been cancelling some tenders. In principle what has been causing support in biodiesel for the past few weeks was the same thing causing weakness in rapeseed so the biodiesel weakness can well transfer to rapeseed support. This support may be need with rapeseed not looking as attractively priced v wheat as this time last year.
- The hills are alive to the sound poor yield forecasts (compared to USDA forecasts) from the pro farmer and the bears are waiting for the bad areas to transfer to the good areas but its taking longer than hoped.
- There is a lot of debate/interest/concern regarding fertiliser, its supply outlook regionally in EU is not good with plants dropping production on the nat. gas costs.
- There is also the unseen impacts of CO2 supply reductions to the meat industry.
- Farmers have skimped on fertilizer arguably the past 2 seasons and so far have not paid a huge yield penalty, it may be because too much was applied prior and/or maybe just lucky with weather. Its a big question mark for 2023, at least in EU. SAM seem well covered.

Aug 25 - Brazil poised to reap record 2023 soy crop - government agency
Brazil is set to plant its biggest soybean crop to date, as farmers in the world's largest supplier of the oilseed get ready to sow a larger area starting in September. In its first forecast for the next crop, Brazil's food supply and statistics agency Conab said on Wednesday that the soy harvest will grow by 21% to a record 150.36 million tonnes.

Aug 25 - Argentina extends biofuel blend rate to avoid gas import increase
The Argentine government on Wednesday extended its 12.5% biodiesel blend rate to avoid fuel import increases, having first increased it in June from 5%. Argentina heavily relies on imports to meet its fuel demand, costing it valuable foreign currency, which is already in low supply and which the government is trying to hold on to amid sky-high inflation in the country.

Aug 24  - Euronext investors slash French milling wheat longs to 95-week low (AgriCensus)

- Investors in the French milling wheat complex slashed long positions to the lowest level since October 2020 in the week ended August 19, as the increasing flow of Ukrainian grain exports from deep-water ports on the Black Sea sent futures tumbling. The commitment of trader data from the Euronext exchange showed that investors reduced their long positions by 23,604 lots in the week ended August 19, bringing the total to 263,052 – a 95-week low.

- Shorts decreased by 16,037 positions, bringing the total to 194,888 – a 17-week high. The decrease in both longs and shorts resulted in a net long decline of 7,567 positions, bringing the total to 68,164 – a 59-week low.

- Investors bolstered both long and short positions in the European rapeseed complex. Longs advanced by 2,701 lots to 20,572 – a nine-week high. Shorts surged by 5,864 lots to 45,326 positions – a 45-week high. Overall, the changes led to a 3,163-lot increase in the net short to 24,754 – the most in data going back to April 2018.

- Finally, the data for corn contracts reported a decrease of 250 long positions, leaving the total to 6,755. Corn short positions increased by 712 lots, bringing the total to 5,830 – a 15-week high. The decline in longs combined with the large gain increase in shorts reduced the net long by 962 to 925 – a 15-week low.

Aug 24 - Nebraska corn, soy prospects below 3-year averages - crop tour
Nebraska corn yield prospects and soybean pod counts are lower than last year and below their three-year averages, scouts on an annual tour of top U.S. production states found on Tuesday. Nebraska's corn yield was projected at 158.53 bushels per acre (bpa), the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour said on Tuesday evening, well below the 2021 crop tour average of 182.35 bpa and the tour's three-year average of 176.68 bpa.

Aug 24 - Brazil's next crop will not be hurt by fall in fertilizer deliveries -expert
Brazil is poised to produce more than 300 million tonnes of grains in 2022/2023 even as some farmers may cut fertilizer applications, Andre Pessoa, head of agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult, said on Tuesday. Brazil will start planting soybeans and summer corn next month in the center west, and crop conditions will likely be excellent barring unforeseen weather issues, he said.

Aug 24  - European Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- The pro farmer tour continues with a theme of weak yield forecasts with corn and beans and with funds short of 40k contracts of CME wheat they are busy covering in those shorts with the backdrop of corn price strength and a rising fear that recent events in Russia and the lost ground in Ukraine will precede some sort of major reprisal. What that "something" is we just don’t know.
- Natural gas prices and electricity in Europe are somehow the most bullish and bearish conundrums. Quite how we don’t avoid recession and major contraction in industrial output I don’t know. At what point do get a wave of food companies announcing the same and saying enough is enough with energy price rises.
- Orlen announcing a temporary shutdown of its fertiliser factory indicative of the risk to fertiliser and input costs.
- Energy surcharges now standard. Diesel generators are being installed left right and centre and if gas does not go down then diesel demand will no doubt increase this winter.
- A straw poll of Ethanol and biodiesel producers suggests in many cases have taken good cover on gas needs but that cover runs out in coming months. There are crush margins and there are crush margins with energy costs included.

Aug 23  - European Agri Market Pre Open Market Comments (StoneX)
- The pro farmer tour kicking off and kicking off in the worst parts of the US from a drought standpoint so some nasty yield estimates hitting Twittersphere and has overall yield ideas in decline. Anchoring.
- There is also the supportive backdrop of firm energy markets as OPEC signal a tightening of supplies "to control volatility" or in other words they like triple digit more than double digits.
- Here in Europe we have the additional tailwind of the weak euro. There is a lot of debate regarding the state of EU landbank and soil moisture levels heading into plantings where rapeseed is the first crop to get the tap on the shoulder. The bears are focused on the weak demand viewpoint as high energy costs, recessionary fears, low ball Black sea prices and difficult logistics eat into buyers appetite to load up.
- On the flip side, the bulls focus on the high cost of inputs, range of weather issues developing across the Eurasian continent and the escalating risks out of the Black sea.
- We mentioned it before once or twice but you would be in your rights to short this market but if you do be at least aware of what calls and call spreads can do, they are your defence against the wrong missile hitting the wrong vessel or nuclear facility.
- So as we speak, it seems the weak profarmer yield chatter and the rising anxities about how Russia may respond to recent events in Moscow has the market supported.

Aug 23 - Soy, corn damaged in South Dakota after drought
South Dakota corn yield prospects and soybean pod counts are well below last year and the three-year average, scouts on an annual tour of top U.S. producing states found on Monday. The tour is being closely watched by farmers and commodity traders, as extreme heat and widespread drought in parts of the U.S. Midwest has hampered fields.

Aug 23 - EU monitor slashes summer crop yield outlook after dry weather
The European Union's crop monitoring service MARS on Monday lowered its yield forecasts again for summer crops in the bloc, with major cuts in maize (corn), sunflower and soybeans, as it expected further damage from the recent dry and hot weather. Crop prospects in the EU have taken on extra significance this year as Russia's invasion of Ukraine - a major wheat, corn and sunflower exporter - has disrupted Black Sea exports and raised uncertainty over Ukraine's harvest.

Aug 22  - Turkey cites fake docs fears as it reimposes Ukraine phyto requirements (AgriCensus)
- Turkish authorities have given notice that they will re-impose all documentation and certification requirements for imports from Ukraine with effect from September 1, multiple sources have told Agricensus on Monday. In a document distributed among the trade, and dated August 17, the food and control directorate of the ministry of agriculture and forestry appears to have cited the presence of fake documents in Black Sea ship movements as the driver for the decision.
“For this reason, when the issues of preventing counterfeiting in the certificates of the products to be imported… the products should come with the Phytosanitary Certificate/Health Certificate as per our legislation,” the document says.

- Trade sources emphasised this was a revert to normal trading requirements – and came amid reports that Russia had been exporting Ukrainian grown product seized from occupied lands.
“(You) can’t custom clear imports without the original phyto in Turkey. Since March 3, buyers are able to import the cargo without the original phyto, but now it’s back to basics,” one trade sources said.
“You must have the original phyto at discharge, otherwise the vessel will wait… Now we are back to this,” a second trade source said.

- Turkey suspended the documentation requirement back on March 3, just days after Russian forces began their invasion of Ukraine. The fighting led to a huge drop in Ukraine’s export capacity as Russian forces blockaded the country’s deep water ports and seized the shallow water ports of the Azov Sea. However, a month ago the UN and Turkey were able to broker an agreement between Russia and Ukaine to reopen exports from Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Pivdennyi - Ukraine’s key deep water ports capable of handling much bigger corn, wheat and oilseed volumes.

Aug 21  - China soybean imports from Brazil fall in July, U.S. imports up
China's soybean imports from Brazil dropped in July from a year ago, while shipments from the United States increased, customs data showed on Saturday, as high prices curbed demand for South American cargoes. China, the world's top soybean buyer, imported 6.97 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil in July, down from 7.88 million tonnes a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

Aug 21  - China's farmers struggle to save crops as heatwave, drought drag on
As the tinder-dry countryside along China's Yangtze river basin withers under a heatwave that has lasted more than two months, veteran farmer Chen Xiaohua recalled the last severe drought to hit his crops more than 60 years ago. "This year is drier than 1960," said Chen, 68, from his plot of land in the village of Fuyuan in the rugged rural fringes of the Chongqing region in China's southwest. "The temperature is higher."

Aug 21  - Two more grain ships leave Ukraine, Turkey's defence ministry says
Two more ships carrying grain have left Ukraine's Chornomorsk port, Turkey's Defence Ministry said on Saturday, bringing the total number of vessels to leave Ukraine's Black Sea ports under a U.N.-brokered grain export deal to 27. The Zumrut Ana and MV Ocean S, which are authorized to depart on Aug. 20, were loaded with 6,300 tonnes of sunflower oil and 25,000 tonnes of wheat respectively, the joint coordination centre set up to enable safe passage said in a statement.

Aug 21  - Russia to send test shipment of wheat to Vietnam
Russia will send a trial shipment of wheat to Vietnam in September or October as it aims to resume active supplies to the country, its agriculture safety watchdog said on Friday. Vietnam slashed purchases of the grain from Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, in 2019 after finding imports containing certain thistle seed as it feared this could spread across Vietnam and damage crops.

Aug 21  - European Grain Market Pre Open Comments ( StoneX )
- Russian wheat exports for the first two months estimated down 17% YoY, the corridor is good but its not that good. - Vessels of Ukrainian grain landing at destination ports, cannot speak for wheat quality bu corn quality for feed seems to be adequate for grain that has spent 7 months on-vessel.
- This is one of the most difficult markets to value grain given the wide range of potential costs with gas and electricity and transport (especially truck/trains/barges) all high and variable.
- On paper, Russian grains are the cheapest and while this may still mean buyers are reluctant to buy their grains it doesnt stop them defering purchases on other origins looking too expensive.
- The euro is weaker this morning and threatening to break below 1.00 again which at a face values pressure CME markets and supports Matif markets all other things being equal, Matif in dollar terms already at pre war levels. - Growing debate about what stupidly high energy costs means for industrial demand for materials this winter with the starch industries facing the initial big questions.
- The pig industry in Europe and beyond the most energy intensive markets. Having to deal with high electricity costs.

- The quickest way to lose money in Europe at the moment is to try make Urea based fertiliser at todays gas prices.

Aug 19  - Black Sea grains tempt Asia's buyers with low prices, but fears remain (AgriCensus)

- Black Sea wheat offers have been dropping fast in the last week amid the opening of the grain corridor from Ukraine that has increased flows, while the news of record wheat production forecast in Russia has meant that offers from these origins have become the cheapest options into Asian destinations. However, despite the prices buyers so far have been cautious to step in and make purchases.
- Ukrainian 11.5% wheat offers have fallen by $30/mt during the week to $355/mt basis offers delivered CFR into Vietnam or Indonesia for September loading.
- Russian wheat selling ideas were also in free fall during the same period, but the latest offers on the same basis were heard at a slightly higher level, closer to $370/mt.

- But buying ideas remain well below, with levels heard at $346/mt CFR.
“For Russian origin, buyers can possibly pay a little more, since it will definitely be delivered. But only a little more. Ukrainian [prices] can go down further, since while the corridor is working it is necessary to sell and export and turn this into money,” one broker said, contrasting the situation with Russia where he felt levels had limited downside.

- The pressure also comes as freight rates are at very high levels from the Black Sea, with ideas for Ukrainian cargoes delivered into Asia heard at around 75/mt, while the freight for Russian cargoes is thought to be in a range from around $55/mt to $75/mt, depending on the cargo and the fleet. Indian or Chinese shipowners are likely to be at the lower end of the scale, but prices are much more expensive if the vessels are Greek-owned, a factor that is particularly pressing since the largest fleet is mostly European-owned, freight sources told Agricensus.

- Meanwhile, most of the trade sources spoken to by Agricensus have said that, for now, they are still cautious about both origins amid the risks related - particularly the risk of cargoes not being delivered if the corridor is closed at any time by attacks or if there are further sanctions placed on Russian origin. Importers are said to be facing financial difficulties while they are looking to resume Ukrainian imports, with some banks refusing to issue letters of credit (LC) amid the war risks.
“The problem the buyers are concerned about is that no bank, and no insurance company will agree to do for their contract if it’s done,” a Vietnam-based trader told Agricensus.
“Let the brave ones moved first. I wish to play third fiddle,” a buyer, based in Indonesia said.

- Also, some buyers have said that as the price gap when compared to Australian wheat remains still relatively small, they will still prefer to take this origin, but the issue with Australian wheat is that old crop for September through December dates is booked solid, so there is a lack of volumes still avaliable.
- At the same time, Vietnam has allowed at least two Russian wheat cargoes to be imported as a test exercise after a meeting was held in the country between the Russian and Vietnamese phytosanitary agencies.

- The same situation was reported in the corn market too, but buyers have been searching for more competitive price options - with competition still coming from shipments out of South America and Myanmar currently quoted in a range of $330-335/mt CFR southern ports for September-December loading windows. A rumor circulated the market earlier this week about a cargo of Ukrainian origin corn traded to Vietnam at $300/mt CFR southern ports, with the trade said to be done between a multinational trader Viterra and Vietnam’s biggest importer Tan Long, according to market sources, but full details were hard to confirm. The cargo was also said to be an already-afloat vessel, which could possibly explain the price possible at this level.

- That rumour also came amid talks that some Ukrainian corn was sold to South Korea for September-October dates, but again details proved impossible to confirm. However, trade sources said that deals would likely only be possible if it was older cargoes booked before the war broke out that had been expected to sail back in February, that have since been loaded in Ukrainian ports and thus could be re-sold.

But despite this, it was almost impossible to get the confirmation for new trades into Asia, while on the freight side of the market trade sources said that a few panamaxes have been fixed into that destination, and at least two were already on their way to Ukrainian ports to load.

Aug 19 - European Grain Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- In dollar terms Matif wheat is back to pre war levels, if the euro had stayed at 1.13 then Matif wheat would now be in the low €270's. Of course if the war didn’t happen, most likely we would have Matif in the deeper into the €200's given the size of the Russian crop and likely size of the Ukrainian crop it if had been able to fire under all cylinders.
- Non of those things are our reality and the EU economy faces the greatest challenge of its history as a collective to keep the euro weak. Yesterday in Matif wheat was about one simple line, the 200 day moving average. Once that broke it was stop after stop. We were trying to close some long wheat v maize positions in a positive spread but what was interesting was maize was falling pretty closely with wheat. If there was day for wheat to return its premium it should have been yesterday. It will come but interesting that the two markets stayed pretty well correlated.
- There are still oil bulls out there with a major bank resolutely sticking to their $125/barrel target within 12 months.
- As we stand right now, the risk of growing grain for 2023 is huge with diesel prices still much
closer the highs than the lows and fertiliser prices off the highs but still high.
- Nat. gas and electricity prices are catastrophically high and if the EU were Joe Exotic it would again be saying "I am never gonna financially recover from this".

Aug 19 - Wheat futures plunge to multi-month lows amid bearish headlines (Agricensus)

US wheat futures tumbled Thursday to the lowest levels since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February as a spate of bearish news ranging from rising Ukrainian shipments to falling US export sales sent traders heading for the exits.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres met with Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy on Thursday to discuss a variety of issues including grain exports.  

"Wheat was down on the UN trying to negotiate a cease-fire in Ukraine, with European values in the tank following Russian cash prices into the sewer," Charlie Sernatinger of ED&F Man told Agricensus.

"Russian prices are offered down to $315/ton, don’t bid $305 unless you want to own it," Sernatinger said.  

As of 1222 Eastern time, Chicago SRW futures were down 4% on Wednesday's settlement, with September trading at $7.33/bu and December at $7.49/bu.

Kansas City HRW futures were also down around 4.7%, with September at $8.11/bu and December at $8.13/bu.

The Minneapolis March contract declined about 3.5%, with September at $8.53/bu and December at $8.65/bu.

For the US, a slow export pace also added to the falling prices.

"We had a marketing year low in exports this morning, at a time when we should be having our best sales of the marketing year," Brian Hoops, president at Midwest Market Solutions, told Agricensus.

"There are reports of another three ships leaving Ukraine, bringing the total to 24. The IGC raised wheat exports at 13 million mt vs. 10 million mt previously, so all the news is negative," Hoops continued.

The decline accelerated after falling below technical support levels, which spurred additional selling, market sources said.

"Wheat broke key technical support, setting off sell stops," Hoops said.

Expectations of better weather for crop areas in what-growing regions added to the downward pressure on prices.

"Domestically we have better rains forecast for the HRW regions. That's more of a July 23 futures story, new crop that's not yet planted, but we do see July 23 down almost as much as nearby futures.

We are getting wheat cash values in the cattle feeding areas down towards corn values which should lead to an increase in wheat feeding," Curt Strubhar of Advance Trading told Agricensus.

Aug 19 - Fickle demand poses hurdle to drought-fueled U.S. cotton rally
A severe drought and heat wave in Texas have scorched the cotton crop in the United States, the world's top exporter, spurring a blistering rally in cotton futures in recent weeks. But cooling demand for clothes as factory output in China slows and fears of a global recession mount could soon temper cotton prices, analysts and traders said.

Aug 19 - Argentina's corn crop seen growing 6%, wheat area flat
Argentina's corn harvest for the current 2021/2022 season is estimated to reach 52 million tonnes, according to data released by the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange on Thursday, up about 6% from last week's 49 million tonne forecast. Dry weather last week favored the corn crop, the exchange said, while it also raised its calculation of the corn-planted area for the 2021/2022 season to 7.7 million hectares, from 7.3 million previously.

Aug 18  - European Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- Russian wheat production ideas still strongly above 90MMT and (don’t blame the messenger) the Indian wheat government actually raised their production forecast to 106.84MMT. Whether we like it or not, agree or not we will have to live with as a statistic at least 2 months with the USDA now likely to adopt that number in the September report.
- Wheat-corn spreads are correcting and have turned positive on Matif but a hell of a lot of wheat feeding has been locked in.
- Chinese grain import stats for July were not bullish, down double digit % across most products. The demand side of the equation feels like it is getting really pummeled and there ar lot of evidence to support this when we look at export statistics and spreads.
- The spread anomaly at the moment is in beans where strong crush margins are keeping the front of the curve well supportive.
- The 200 day MA on Matif wheat will be tested today and break on that can open the door for a flush of fresh selling with 300 the obvious target.
- Canada, Russia and the Ukrainian corridor against the currently weak demand "feel" seem to be the pillars of bears dominance.
- Energy demand ideas also suggesting trouble extending to biodiesel contracts.

Aug 18 - US weekly ethanol production falls below 1 m b/d for first time since May (Agricensus)

US weekly ethanol production in the week ending August 12 fell below 1 million barrels per day (b/d) for the first time since mid-May, data published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday.

Total weekly US ethanol production decreased by 39,000 barrels to 983,000 barrels, according to the EIA.

The dip was solely driven by declining output in the Midwest of the US - home to the majority of the country's total ethanol production capacity – where figures fell to 926,000 b/d from 965,000 a week earlier.

The dip was unexpected by analysts who had polled for weekly US ethanol production to remain at last week's levels of 1.02 m b/d.

Over the week, full production equated to consumption of 2.53 million mt of corn, down from 2.63 million mt a week earlier.

Meanwhile, ethanol stockpiles were boosted by 190,000 barrels to 23.4 million barrels in the period covered by the report.

The increase exceeded analyst expectations, which had called for a week-on-week increase of 24,000 barrels.

Margins calculated through a model from Iowa State University showed that the estimated return over operating costs for the average Midwest-based plant fell in the week ending August 12 to $0.10/gallon from $0.13 a week earlier.

Corn prices for the week remained more or less stable with levels recorded a week earlier, averaging $7.40/bu.

Finished ethanol prices meanwhile fell by 6 cents week-on-week to $2.44/gallon.

Aug 18 - Ethanol could get boost from carbon capture credits in Biden climate law
A major expansion in tax credits for companies that capture and store carbon emissions under U.S. President Joe Biden's new climate law could be a boon to the ethanol industry as it seeks to meet its mid-century climate goals. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) Biden signed on Tuesday significantly expands tax credits for industrial projects that capture emissions of carbon dioxide, the main gas blamed for climate change, and either store it underground or use it as a building block for other products.

Aug 18 - Brazil 2022 fertilizer consumption to drop, consultancy says
Brazil is expected to reduce fertilizer consumption to 43 million tonnes in 2022, as farmers are poised to cut applications when the planting of crops like soybeans begins in September, consultancy MB Agro said on Wednesday. Last year, Brazilian farmers used an estimated 45.85 million tonnes of crop nutrients, according to Anda, a fertilizer industry group.

Aug 17  - European Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- More and more the Chinese demand and economic situation coming under scrutiny and at the moment the mood is largely negative and the question for commodity traders is simply what does this mean for demand.
- Also on the demand side there are question of financial power of destination markets, in
particular those in North Africa and finally there is the question of the demand in the EU as it faces a winter where electricity and gas prices are many multiples of normal.
- In a scenario where there is not enough to go around, commercial users will be shut of first. Gas stocks are improving but still price continue to rally. Again we have to ask what this means for demand. So there are lots of questions being asked of the demand picture.
- Russia's influence on grain markets is interesting, on the one hand their pricing is sharp and puts pressure on buyers ideas in other marktes through pure anchoring, materially however in the context of the crop size and demand that should have carried over from old crop and the expensive appearance of other origins their exports are light and their pool of buyers shallow. According to the Russian grain Union, wheat exports are down 13% and their pool of buyers is almost half this time a year ago.

Aug 17 - Ukraine expects more feed wheat, lower quality in 2022/23 (Agricensus)

Ukraine is expected to have more feed wheat and overall lower quality in the newly begun 2022/23 marketing year, due to the impact of weather and lost territories, trade sources said.
Ukraine has already harvested more than 82% of the planned area of wheat, with 15.5 million mt already in the bins, and trade sources that Agricensus talked to said the quality over all was expected to be lower this year, with a large share of feed wheat.
“I know that the quality is bad, but I have not seen any ratings yet; I think more than 50% is rated as feed. We also used to have high protein wheat in the south and the east, in the steppe, while in central and western parts it was lower. And this year its unlikely that some additional fertilizers were added for the quality,” an analyst said.

- Currently, most of the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine are occupied by Russian forces or are areas of active fighting.
"I expect poor quality this season – 60/40 or 55/45 share in favour of feed wheat. There were heavy rains before the harvest and less fertilizer was applied. Usually we have more food, but not this time,” a second analyst said.

- But he added that in general it is possible to mix good quality old crop with lower quality new crop to attain a more normal average quality level. This change is also reflected in price levels discussed in the market, as the gap between 12.5% and 11.5% protein wheat has increased to $20/mt, and the gap between 11.5% and feed wheat has increased to at least $10/mt. By comparison, last year the gap was nearer to $5-7/mt between 11.5% and feed wheat, and there was a lack of offers of both, but there was plenty of offers of Ukrainian 12-12.5% protein wheat with little premium over 11.5%.

- At the same time, trade sources said the current situation may give a distorted picture of actual grain quality as farmers are likely to sell lower quality grain first. Origination is going very slowly as most of the big companies are still trying to move out their own stocks and crops rather than buy from producers, so the market does not yet see the wider picture. Russia has faced similar quality issues this year, and although a record crop is expected at around 90 million mt, the quality so far has been lower than last year.

- The spread between Russian protein grades has also has increased to $20/mt, while in the 2021/22 marketing year there was a lack of 11.5% wheat, and 12.5% and 13.5% wheat were offered at the same price at some points due to high aviability.

Aug 17 - War, gas prices to halt a third of Ukraine's sugar refineries
A third of Ukraine's refineries will not operate in the coming sugar production year due to war and high gas prices, producers' union Ukrtsukor said on Tuesday. Ukraine produced 5 million tonnes of beet sugar in Soviet times, but production fell to 1 million tonnes due to lower demand, rising fuel prices and competition in export markets from cheaper cane sugar.

Aug 17 - Sovecon raises forecast for 2022 Russian wheat crop
Russia-focused consultancy Sovecon raised its forecast for Russia's 2022 wheat crop to 94.7 million tonnes from 90.9 million tonnes on Tuesday, citing record yields in many regions and brighter prospects for spring wheat after recent rain. Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, supplying it mainly to the Middle East and Africa.

Aug 16  - European Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- In my head there are a few phases to the Ukraine grain flows that eventually lead us to "normality".
1) agreement from all parties to allows grain movements (check)
2) we establish that corridor (check),
3) we get the existing vessels out (check),
4) we get some new vessels in (Check)
5) we get those vessels back out (being checked - 5 vessels leaving today),
6) rinse and repeat 4 and 5 in greater frequency (21 +/- vessels destined for Ukrainian ports) and consitency until we get to "normal". During all this, the existing port infrastructure needs to be left alone and damaged infrastructure reinstated to full functionality. The market is very good at "finding a way" through these
many if's. The echo's of the grain flows starting to be felt in other markets and Ukrainian corn will look value in
many markets and buyers building confidence to draw in grain from farmers there ahead of futures export needs.

- Brazilian fertilizer import statistics point to a near 30% increase on last year ahread of their planting season
(mostly coming from Russia) and points to strong yields there (mother nature permitting).
- US export inspections data has US wheat movements running light of USDA forecasts by 4%, corn light by 6%.
- The best representation of the low water levels is spot margins in RME as destination market struggle with finding product.
- The dollar finding renewed strength to pressure dollar commodities (crude back below $90/barrel) as demand ideas are also being tempered. There are lots of reasons to be bearish but we are one stray rocket away from a runaway market.

Aug 16 - China’s Yangtze River water levels hit a record low, threatening crops

China’s Yangtze River - one of the longest rivers in the world - is the latest major maritime artery to report navigational problems after experiencing a long drought during what is usually the traditional flood season, a report from China’s weather authority has said.

Water levels have hit their lowest level on record, while further heatwaves have been forecast over the next one or two weeks in the regions the river cuts through over the next one to two weeks, according to a report from the National Meteorological Centre on Monday.

The river winds its way through some of China's most productive regions as well, with the lack of rain continuing to threaten crop development during the key harvest period.

Temperatures in areas across four or more provincial-level regions along the Yangzte River hit 40 Celsius in the past 48 hours, the National Meteorological Observatory had said, triggering the first national temperature red alert of this year issued last week.

High temperatures have lingered in many parts of southern China since June, said Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the National Climate Centre, and this year “is set to become the hottest year since 1961”.

According to the Ministry of Water Resources (MWR), with the extremely high temperature and low precipitation, the water level of Yangtze mainstream and lakes in its flood basin is 4.7 to 5.7 meters lower than the average level of the year.

The prolonged drought has threatened the autumn harvest in China, as the Yangtze river basin is one of the major grain-producing regions in China, contributing nearly half of the country’s crop output, including over two-thirds of the total volume of rice.

In a drought report published by the MWR on August 11, the total acreage affected by the drought in Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing and Sichuan Provinces reached 9.67 million mu (644,667 hectares).

The area of crops affected by drought in Hefei, the capital city of Anhui province just west of the port of Shanghai, was 329,800 mu (21,987 hectares), including 322,800 mu (21,520 hectares) in light drought and 7,000 mu (467 hectares) in severe drought by August 11, according to report from the official provincial media, Anhui Daily.

In Jiangxi province, a total of 123,000 hectares of crops were affected by drought, within 8,900 hectares in total crop failure between July 15 and August 12, the state media People.cn said on Saturday.

To deal with the drought threat, China has issued a level VI emergency response for prevention in the six most severely affected provinces, and is preparing to reserve waters in 51 major reservoirs, including the Three Gorges.

At the same time, many cities are turning to artificial rainfall and precipitation enhancement, as some cloud-seeding aircrafts have been prepared in Hubei Province and are planning to start a three-month artificial rain seeding operation on Monday.

Aug 16 - Ukraine working to release detained wheat shipment for Egypt
Ukrainian officials are working to release a detained vessel carrying Ukrainian wheat purchased by Egypt's government, Ukraine's Mideast envoy told reporters on Monday. The vessel, Emmakris III, was detained last month at the request of Ukraine's prosecutor general to investigate its alleged Russian owner, court documents seen by Reuters showed.

Aug 16 - U.S. corn, soy ratings decline amid Midwest dryness -USDA
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) rated 57% of the national corn crop in good to excellent condition in its weekly progress report, down 1 percentage point from the previous week but just above analyst estimates. Eleven analysts surveyed by Reuters on average had expected corn ratings to fall to 56% good-to-excellent following dry conditions in portions of the Midwest.

Aug 15  - European Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- I have no confirmation as yet but a little chatter about China banning OZ/NZ meat imports. On a more official note, the Chinese ag minsitry have reduced their soybean import requirement to 91MMT with hog numbers there in decline. This presumably on the back of the weak margins and commercial destocking (rather than sanitary/desease destocking). More or less in line with the USDA.
- The Chinese economy feel even shakier than the EU economy (if thats possible). The EU face an energy crisis like nothing before if we get a cold winter as natural gas and electricity prices here continue to run.
- Crude oil however struggling and this seems a reflection of the wider global economic anxieties.
- The EU small grains harvest all but complete in most areas and focus shifting to Autumn plantings. We have to remind ourselves that the harvest is mostly 1-2 weeks ahead of schedule so there is a some room for rains to come to give farmers confidence to plant winter crops. If the EU plants less because of drought and Ukraine plants less because of war then we are looking at a multi season headache for wheat supplies in this region.
- Any support from the USDA report has been given back overnight. US weather see's limited rains but at least benign temperatures.
- The EU see's heat building across the Eastern EU to stress corn and sunflowers more. Some relief for France and Austria but way more needed.
- Brazil dry and hot as we start to think about plantings there, remember slow bean plantings there generally doesnt bode well for corn yields.

Aug 15  - U.S. government raises soybean harvest view
U.S. soybean production will be bigger than previously forecast as better-than-expected yields will more than make up for a cut to acreage, the government said on Friday. Corn production was seen lower than the government's July outlook.

Aug 15  - Ship carrying first Ukraine grain cargo nears Syria - shipping sources
The first ship to depart Ukraine under a deal to resume grain exports from the country two weeks ago was approaching the Syrian port of Tartous on Sunday, two shipping sources said, after the vessel had been sailing with its transponder off. The Sierra Leone-flagged Razoni set sail from Ukraine's Odesa port on Aug. 1 under the deal between Moscow and Kyiv, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, but its location had not been clear in the past days without the transponder.

Aug 12  - Weekly Ukrainian grain exports jump 85% to 472k, total 2.34m mt (AgriCensus)
 


- Weekly grain exports from Ukraine jumped by almost 85% to 472,000 mt compared to last week as bulk shipping options out of the country improved dramatically following the UN and Turkey-brokered deep sea ports deal with Russia. As a result of the surge, total exports since the beginning of the 2022/23 season jumped to 2.34 million mt, according to data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy released Friday. However, compared with last season, Ukrainian grain exports up to this August lag well behind last year’s figures, which were almost double.

- Wheat exports from the country in the week up to August 12 amounted to 145,000 mt, which is almost 75% higher than the week before, while total wheat exports since the beginning of the 2022/23 marketing year amounted to 589,000 mt, or below 75% of the same level last year. The main export destinations for Ukrainian wheat were Romania and Turkey with shares of 37% and 34%, or or 83,531 mt and 72,554 mt, respectively. Compared with the August 2021/22 season, Ukrainian wheat exports in the current season 2022/23 are almost a quarter of the volume exported previously.

- Weekly barley exports increased by 61% compared to the previous week to 37,000 mt, but lag almost 9 times from last August’s indicator. The lion’s share - some 57% - of Ukrainian barley exports headed for Romania, with 33,863 mt. The aggregate volume of Ukrainian barley exports since the beginning of the 2022/23 season increased to 202,000 mt, which is 88% lower than last year's level.

- Last week corn exports increased by 96% compared to the first week of August and amounted to 288,000 mt, double the volume exported in the same period of August 2021. This volume became possible due to the beginning of the grain corridor within the framework of the agreement between Turkey, the UN and Russia, and the departure of ships with Ukrainian corn from the Ukrainian ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk. The bulk of the corn volume was distributed among three buyers 20% or 88,170 mt for Romania, 19% or 83,581 mt for Poland, and 19% or 82,957 mt for Turkey. Since the beginning of the 2022/23 marketing year, corn exports amounted to 1.54 million mt, which is three times the value of last year on the same date.

Aug 12  - EU Agri Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- The USDA report to come today and they USDA will have a lot to consider, the Russian wheat crop and grains generally will likely be revised higher, the EU crops revised lower. Ukraine will likely see an increase in export numbers now the corridor is developing. The risk remains shocks in the form of vessels getting hit that will stop that process or nuclear facilities getting damaged.
- Russia by most accounts are firing from the vacinity of Ukraine (and Europes) largest facility. I wouldnt call it a low probability scenario.
- The river levels in Europe now basically at a point where it is becoming un-navigable.
- Mainland EU wheat protein levels sound like they are coming average at best and baltic premiums feel supported.
- Whether this is victims of weather circumstance or the lower use of Nitrogen fertiliser can be debated. Probably some mix of the two.
- Sunseed harvest getting started and the openning act for summer crops ahead of what most consider to be one of the worse EU corn crop in recent memory. the wheat corn-spread on MAtif dipping even further and wheat a €5/tonne discount to wheat, this will have to support wheat feeding, especially for non-GMO markets.
- Energy markets strengthening again in the background, electricity prices catatrophically high now for many businesses and home owners. Natural gas prices following. At these levels diesel generators look economical. - Europe needs rain and the need at this point is less for old crop supply ideas but more for new crop supply ideas.

Aug 12  - Strategie Grains slashes EU maize crop forecast by 10 mln T on drought
Severe drought is set to slash the European Union's maize harvest by 10 million tonnes, dropping it to a 15-year a low of 55.4 million tonnes, consultancy Strategie Grains said in its monthly forecast on Thursday. The forecast marked a 15% cut to its July estimate of 65.4 million tonnes for 2022/23 EU maize (corn) production.

Aug 12  - Brazil's BRF shares tumble after weak quarter
Investors dumped shares in Brazilian food processor BRF SA on Thursday after a wider-than-expected quarterly loss partly attributed by management to nonrecurring events. In mid-afternoon trading, BRF was down by 12% and was the worst performing stock on Brazil's Bovespa index.

Aug 11  - First Ukraine grain deal ship docks in Turkey after Lebanese buyer refused delivery
The first grain ship to depart from Ukraine under a U.N.-brokered deal docked in Turkey on Thursday after 11 days at sea, Refinitiv data showed, and the ship's agent in Turkey said it would continue to Egypt after unloading part of its cargo. The Razoni set sail from Ukraine's Odesa port on Aug. 1 under a deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey between Russia and Ukraine. Eleven other ships have left since then.

Aug 11  - Jordan tenders to buy 120,000 tonnes feed barley
- traders
Jordan's state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Aug. 17.

Aug 11  - Hot, dry weather may lead USDA to further downgrade US corn crop (AgriCensus)

- The USDA may have to further downgrade US corn crop conditions and potentially rein in its overall production figure in the days ahead because hot, dry weather in the main producing regions of the US threatens immature crops.
"West-central areas will see limited rain for the corn belt," Terry Reilly, senior grain and oilseed commodity analyst at Futures International, told Agricensus.
"We expect to see a handful of western corn belt states to post a decline in good/excellent ratings on Monday," Reilly added.

- In the northern plains, high temperatures and drought is stressing summer crops, like corn, while slightly cooler weather and scattered showers are moving across the southern plains. Nonetheless, immature summer crops in the region remain stressed because of arid conditions and there is likely not enough rain in the forecast to provide relief.
"Poor choice of words perhaps, but the western corn belt is a hot topic with some suggesting we could see an Iowa yield in the low to mid 190’s and Nebraska sub-170,"  Larry Shonkwiler of Advance Trading told Agricensus.

- Iowa is the biggest corn-producing state of the US and last year set a record yield for its corn production of 205 bushels per acre.   
"While conditions are better as one travels east, the top end of the crop east of the Mississippi may have been reduced with the recent heat/lack of rainfall," Shonkwiler said.

- Corn conditions nationally were noted at 58% in good-to-excellent condition in the week ended August 7, down from 61% last week and from 64% last year, according to a USDA report released late Monday. The crop’s silking stage of development came in at 90%, up from 80% a week earlier, but down from 94% a year earlier, and the five-year average of 93%.
"Not all areas will be dry next week when a ridge forms across the heart of the US, but a good portion of both belts could see restricted rain," Reilly said.

- Any reduction in corn production would have a negative impact on farmers raising livestock, market participants said. These regions are "feeding areas so the poorer crops there mean higher basis levels and pressure feed margins for cattle growers," Jeffrey McPike of McWheat Inc. told Agricensus.

Aug 11  - EU Agri Market morning Comments ( StoneX)
- Lots of noise but no real direction as trader position and postulate ahead of the report. If there deckchairs to be moved we are talking in the order of 10's million tonnes of grain deckchairs that need to be reshuffled to account for the grain corridor, the horrendous EU maize crop, the improved Brazilian corn crop, the dodgy US corn crop, the shaky Chinese demand, the Russia crop increases, the Russian sanctions.....
- if instead of narrowing down to single estimates for each line of the various S&D the USDA gave a range of high to low possibilities then we would likely get a picture that can range from fat to starved in almost all grain classes. I started this game in 2007 writing rubbish summaries of the market as our generation saw its first major commodity breakaway rally and swift crumble.
- 2010 was the next major shock and then 2012. 2021 and 2022 are next level in terms of the nature of the challenge when it comes to assessing supply and demand.
- It looks like Ukraine has successfully bombed Crimea as their every longer range missiles hit Russian targets, that variable is quickly shapeshifting.
- The corridor is a vessels by vessel flow of grain. There remain two very dark swans that are becoming less dark for grain shorts.
- A vessel being hit en-route through the corridor and one of the several nuclear facilities being damaged with a significant nuclear release. You can assume a short, that is a perfectly plausible position for the winter but the EU small grain harvest is all but done so the last wave of harvest pressure is Canada and US corn/soybeans. OTM calls are your tail risk controls.

Aug 11  - Ukraine sees big increase in agriculture exports in July
Ukraine's grain, oilseed, vegetable oil exports rose 22.7% in July versus June to 2.66 million tonnes thanks to higher wheat and barley shipments, the agriculture ministry said on Wednesday. Ukraine's grain exports have slumped since the start of the war because its Black Sea ports - a key route for shipments - were closed off, driving up global food prices and prompting fears of shortages in Africa and the Middle East.

Aug 11  - CBOT corn, soy futures vulnerable as U.S. yield, acreage data loom - Braun
U.S. corn and soybean yields are the first two numbers that traders will seek on Friday, but the upcoming government production forecasts add an extra layer of uncertainty with possible updates to acreage. Aside from U.S. crops, grain exports from Ukraine’s seaports are slowly resuming and Europe is amid a widespread drought, giving traders extra items to watch for when the U.S. Department of Agriculture publishes its next reports on Friday at noon EDT (1600 GMT).

Aug 11  - Rhine water falls again in Germany, river shipping costs rise
Water levels on the river Rhine in Germany have fallen again in hot and dry weather and shipping costs are rising as vessels cut loads to continue sailing, commodity traders said on Wednesday. Shallow water after the summer heat-wave has hampered shipping on the entire river in Germany since July, along with other European waterways.

Aug 11  - Second grain ship since invasion docks at Ukrainian port for loading – minister
The second commercial ship to arrive in a Ukrainian port since the start of Russia's invasion has docked in the port of Chornomorsk and is ready to load grain, Ukraine's infrastructure minister said on Wednesday. "OSPREY S is ready to export 30,000 tons of corn," Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov wrote on Twitter.

Aug 10  - Wasde preview: Weather boosts US wheat new crop stocks, global stocks cut (AgriCensus)

- Agricensus' monthly survey of analysts ahead of the USDA's upcoming August Wasde update has revealed that participants estimate steady ending stock figures for across the old wheat crop, while projecting a higher carry over for the US' new crop and a nudge lower globally.

- For new crop 2022/23 ending stocks, analysts are looking for an increase versus last month’s figures with an on average increase of 10 million bushels (272,153 mt), taking the US stocks to 649 million bu (17.6 million mt). Globally, on average, analysts polled are projecting stocks to continue to decrease by 100,000 mt to 267 million mt.
Despite harsh weather conditions across the US, analysts continue to look for an increase in production, with 1.79 billion bu (48.74 million mt) projected in the 2022/23 marketing year for all wheat classes, a 10 million bushel increase from last month's report.

- On average, increases are estimated for hard red spring and hard red winter, while white wheat is projected to see a decline in production.
- Durum and soft red winter wheat production are projected steady at 77 million bushels (2.09 million mt) and 376 million bushels (10.23 million mt), respectively.

- In the latest USDA crop report in the week ending August 7, winter wheat harvest was reported at 86% complete, up from 82% last week but was behind the 94% reached during the same week in 2021 and the 5-year average of 91%. Meanwhile, the spring wheat crop harvest was reported at 9% complete, down from 35% a year earlier and from the 5-year average of 19%.

Black Sea
- At 81.5 million mt, the USDA’s outlook for Russian wheat production continues to lag behind local analysts’ estimates, with some calling for as much as 90 million mt in the upcoming season.
- Official government data put the production gathered to date at 55.8 million mt earlier in the week, with under 50% of the total area harvested – but questions remain over the likely yield and quality as rain continued to slow farmers’ work.
- The harvest is also running well behind schedule on the back of the weather, but nevertheless the USDA may look at pushing the production figure higher in light of the anecdotal evidence as the deterioration in US-Russian relations is likely to complicate the work of the USDA’s Moscow attaché.
- Exports were left unchanged at 40 million mt in the July update, and could hold unchanged again this month, even if production is pushed higher, as quality issues and lingering sanctions potentially cap any commensurate pick up in exports.
- For Ukraine, even the restoration of some exports from the three main ports – as negotiated with Russia, Turkey and the UN – are unlikely to bring much prospect for an increase in exports as much of the export slate appears to be dominated by corn.

The USDA will release its August 2022 Wasde report at 1200 Eastern Time on August 12.

Aug 10  - European Agri Market morning Comments ( StoneX)
- Soymeal is the silent assassin of the feed complex staying strong as the starch side of the feed ingredients list try and weaken. Meals strength coming despite the strength in beanoil which undurprisingly means crush margins have firmed up. Beans are trying to work to temper all this extra crushing demand these margins will stimulate by getting its own support.
 - Staying with proteins RME margins on paper very strong as is typical with lower Rhine water levels. This in principle should support rapeseed demand but the reason RME margins are so high are that the Rhine/Danube located crushers cannot move product.
- The anxiety regarding the new crop '23 rapeseed heightening with dry soils potentially putting farmers off the crop as planting starts in parts of Romania and the window openning for other parts of Europe.
- The sunseed harvest developing from early stages and that adds a wave of near term pressure on oilseeds but the longer term horizon is a little cloudier.
- Looking ahead to the USDA report most of the trade are not anticipating great changes to the US S&D's. How they tackle the Ukraine/Russian/EU balances will be far more challenging for them and potentially far more impactful on the market. If I was to focus on one thing it would be that I think they will feel compelled, now that the corridor is seemingly openning and moving to a more fluid state, todramatically ramp up their grain exports.
- Canada lingers in the background as the returning fighter to the bullring after a years hiatus. EU will wants its durum.

Aug 10  - Australia's Graincorp hikes profit view again on soaring demand, favourable weather
Australia's Graincorp raised its annual profit forecast for the second time, as the agribusiness firm capitalises on strong demand for grains and vegetable oils amid a supply crunch from the war in Ukraine, pushing its shares up more than 10%. The profit upgrade on Wednesday was also encouraged by expectations of above-average East Coast Australian (ECA) crop in year 2022/23, combined with a favourable three-month rainfall outlook.

Aug 10  - Biden rule would give organic chickens access to outdoors
President Joe Biden's administration on Tuesday proposed a U.S. rule requiring farms to give egg-laying chickens access to the outdoors in order to earn the label "organic," closing loopholes but potentially giving companies up to 15 years to comply. The long-awaited proposal, published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, would eliminate loopholes that have let some of the biggest egg producers claim the federally administered "organic" label by installing open-air porches on henhouses in lieu of providing access to pasture.

Aug 10  - EU soybean imports by Aug. 5 at 1.35 mln T, rapeseed 628,542 T
European Union soybean imports in the 2022/23 season that started on July 1 had reached 1.35 million tonnes by Aug. 5, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. That compared with 1.54 million tonnes by the same week in the previous 2021/22 season, the data showed.

Aug 09  - Russia, Ukraine agree to protect Ukraine grain shipping channel
Ships exporting Ukraine grain through the Black Sea will be protected by a 10 nautical mile buffer zone, according to long-awaited procedures agreed by Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations on Monday and seen by Reuters. The United Nations and Turkey brokered a deal last month after Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine halted grain exports, stoking a global food crisis that the United Nations says has pushed tens of millions more people into hunger.

Aug 09  - Brazil fertilizer import bonanza exposes logistical gaps
Brazil's plan to boost internal fertilizer supplies cannot succeed without infrastructure investments, a government official told Reuters on Monday after a strong importing season exposed domestic logistical woes. Brazil announced its plan in April to reduce reliance on imports after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February.

Aug 09  - Russian wheat down with global benchmark as Ukraine exports resume
Russian wheat export prices fell last week after a decline in wheat prices in Chicago and a gradual resumption of Ukraine exports from Black Sea ports, analysts said on Monday. Russian prices for wheat with 12.5% protein content and for supply from Black Sea ports fell by $3 to $355 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, the IKAR agriculture consultancy said in a note.

Aug 08  - Uncertainty over Indonesia’s CPO reference price bewilders sellers (AgriCensus)

- The market for Indonesian palm oil says that confusion reigns almost a week since Indonesia reduced its crude palm oil (CPO) reference price by 46% for August 1-15 to $872.27/mt, which lowered its corresponding export duty for CPO to $33/mt from the previous $288/mt. The news of the changes sent Malaysian palm oil prices tumbling by over 5% as Indonesian palm oil exports became even more attractive and added pressure on competing producer Malaysia. The reduction in the reference price, coupled with ongoing policies, was intended to boost its export volume as Indonesia tries to manage its domestic supply glut. However, a lack of clarity in the days that followed the change has maintained the sense of bewilderment among sellers, with fewer movements of vessels as the market awaits more clarity.

Reference price calculation
- In addition to the reduction in reference price, the Indonesian trade ministry had  issued a circular denoting a change in the method of calculation. Previously, the CPO reference price was based on the average of prices on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, the Indonesia Commodities and Derivatives Exchange, and CPO CIF Rotterdam over a fixed period. The revised method involves a weightage of 60-20-20 given to the average prices, should the difference in the three prices be less or equal to $40/mt.
- It also changes the calculation to base them on an average of two sources – the median of the three sources and the price closest to the median – should the difference exceed $40/mt.
- Market sources have also cited a lack of clarity over the revised method, pointing particularly to the period of reference as open to interpretation, thereby making it difficult to calculate the price.

Demurrage
- Since the new reference price was announced, market talk has been ongoing that the government will revise the price and eventually export duty from $33/mt to $52/mt, which is one tier higher based on the existing export tax structure.
- An announcement is also expected in the coming days. Meanwhile, sellers have been left confused as to the payable export duty, with more than one source sharing with Agricensus that Indonesian customs officers in different ports have been unable to cite a billable amount or quoting different amounts.
- Some exporters have also resorted to using the previous export duty of $288/mt, with the expectation that a reimbursement will be made when the Indonesian government makes an official announcement, a process seen as excessively messy and drawn out. Others have opted instead to have their vessels wait at ports while clarity is sought over the official export duty.
“Waiting is better until the official (price comes out) ...the sellers would rather pay for demurrage instead,” one regional broker told Agricensus.

Aug 08  - Four more cargo ships sail from Ukraine  - Turkish, Ukrainian officials
Four more ships carrying almost 170,000 tonnes of corn and other foodstuffs sailed from Ukrainian Black Sea ports on Sunday under a deal to unblock the country's exports after Russia's invasion, Ukrainian and Turkish officials said. The United Nations and Turkey brokered the agreement last month after warnings that the halt in grain shipments caused by the conflict could lead to severe food shortages and even outbreaks of famine in parts of the world.

Aug 08  - Funds break selling streak in CBOT corn, soy as futures surge - Braun
It took a historic futures rally in the final days of July to prevent speculators from exiting more bullish bets in Chicago corn and soybeans, as they have done in all but two weeks since the end of May. Although buying in the most recent week was lighter, it proved that buying in the big “up” days can still outweigh selling in “down” days, something that has not been happening in recent weeks.

Aug 08  - China's July soybean imports slide amid poor crush margins, weaker demand
China's soybean imports in July fell 9.1% from a year earlier, customs data showed on Sunday, as poor crushing margins and weaker consumption in the world's largest buyer of the oilseed reduced appetite for shipments. China brought in 7.88 million tonnes of the oilseed in July, versus 8.67 million tonnes a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Sunday.

Aug 05  - Fulmar S first vessel set to arrive in Ukraine since war Saturday (AgriCensus)

- The first vessel to arrive in Ukraine ports since the Russian invasion began now looks set to be the Fulmar S, rather than the Osprey S as originally thought, according to market sources. The Fulmar S, which is sailing under the flag of Barbados, passed inspections in Turkey earlier Friday and has an estimated time of arrival in Chornomorsk of 2300 Saturday, according to tracking service Marine Traffic. A second vessel, the Osprey S, which is sailing under the Liberian flag, had originally been scheduled to arrive in Chornomorsk in the early hours of Friday.  However, it is now scheduled to arrive at midday on Sunday, having spent the last two days off the coast of Turkey in the Marmara Sea.

- In the meantime, three vessels that left Ukraine earlier Friday have all passed Snake Island and have entered into safe waters, according to Marine Traffic. The Navi Star, the Rojen and the Polarnet, which are carrying some 57,000 mt of Ukrainian corn in total, formed a convoy and left deep-sea ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk accompanied by tugs Friday morning. The Navi Star, bound for Istanbul, Turkey, is due to arrive Saturday morning, while the Polarnet, is estimated to arrive in Derince, in the early hours of Sunday morning. The Rojen is bound for Teesside in Great Britain, where it is due to arrive on August 19, according to Marine Traffic. A fourth vessel, the Razoni, successfully passed inspections in Turkey earlier this week and is now on its way to its final destination of Tripoli in Lebanon, where it is due to arrive Sunday morning.

- Ukraine’s minister for infrastructure, Oleksandr Kubrakov, said Friday that the goal was to ensure the export of 3 million mt of agricultural products or more every month from the deep-sea ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdenniy.

It is estimated that Ukraine has stocks of around 16 million mt of wheat and corn that it could not export after the Russian military aggression blocked deep-sea ports in the Black Sea.

Aug 05  - European Market Pre Open Comments ( StoneX )
- We finished strongly yesterday with beans and wheat leading the complex. China were strong buyers of beans which helped that cause.
- I do look at the strength of the 750 support on Chicago wheat futures and the normalisation of fund positions and wonder if this is the gift horse the consumers have been waiting for and how long we should inspect its mouth. - Wheat markets have a conundrum it is trying to price, on the one hand time spreads are firm on Matif and weak on CME, but its the rising relative value of EU wheat the when combined with spreads tries to slow the demand side. This may well prove successful in time for exports and maybe milling but with spreads to maize so low it is actually at a price parity that stimulates demand to that demand line.
- There is ongoing debate about EU feeding and I will send on the charts but typically yes we can get double digit changes in feed grain demand between grains but in aggregate its hard (at least on paper) to change feeding demand more than 4-5%.
- Ruminant and poultry demand should be OK so leave any lost overall feeding demand on the pig industry. The bears want to see US wheat prices continue to respond to weak exports and anticipate strong volumes from Canada with the Russians getting more aggressive with their prices.
- The (MAtif) bulls see excess demand for exports already and domestic wheat feeding as strong. Rapeseed relative prices disincentivising farmers to plant it, that said, inputs are high and my COP models don’t leave much fat for farmer on wheat either.

Aug 05 - Three grain ships set to leave Ukraine; NATO chief says Russia must not win
Three ships carrying a total of 58,041 tonnes of corn have been authorised to leave Ukrainian ports on Friday as part of a deal to unblock grain exports, as a Russian offensive forced Ukraine to cede territory in the east. The first vessel carrying Ukrainian grain allowed to leave port since the start of the war set sail from Odesa on Monday bound for Lebanon, under a safe passage deal brokered by Turkey and the United Nations.

Aug 05 - Global rice supplies at risk as harsh weather hits top exporters
Adverse weather across top rice suppliers in Asia, including the biggest exporter India, is threatening to reduce the output of the world's most important food staple and stoke food inflation that is already near record highs. Rice has bucked the trend of rising food prices amid bumper crops and large inventories at exporters over the past two years, even as COVID-19, supply disruptions and more recently the Russia-Ukraine conflict made other grains costlier.

Aug 05 - China’s U.S. ag imports soar to new highs in 2022, but volumes vary
- Braun
China is on track to be the leading international buyer of U.S. agricultural products for a third consecutive year, as the total value of exported goods reached record levels in the first half of 2022. Some of that can be explained by increased trade volumes of certain items, particularly beef, but much of the boost can also be attributed to significantly higher prices this year versus last.

Aug 04  - Wilmar posts record net profits for 1H22 with 55.1% y-o-y jump (AgriCensus)

- Singapore-based Wilmar International announced a 55.1% increase in net profits on the year for the first six months of 2022, with record net profit earnings of $ 1.165 billion on the back of improved performance across all key business units. Revenue for the first half of 2022 period grew by 22% against last year to $36.13 billion, with core net profit increasing by 58% to $1.155 billion. The firm revenue was also supported by improved sales volumes in the Food Products and Feed and Industrial Products segments, particularly in Oilseeds and Grains.

- The company’s Oilseeds and Grains segment saw a 6% y-o-y increase in sales volume in the first half of 2022, though the overall Feed and Industrial Products segment experienced a 5% drop. This was mainly attributed to lower sales of tropical oils and sugar during the period, which fell by 9% and 15% respectively.
“Results of the tropical oils business…was satisfactory, given the challenging operating conditions amidst frequent changes in palm oil related government policies during the period,” the company said.

- Its Plantation and Sugar Milling segment fared better, with revenue from its oil palm plantation and sugar milling units rising by 70% and 5% on the year to $1.73 billion and $448.8 million respectively, following firm prices in both commodities. In addition, fresh fruit bunch production rose by 3% to 2.13 million mt in the first half of 2022, with the improvement mostly seen from Indonesia due to better weather and crop profile.

- Sales in its Food Products segment also grew by 4% to 13.8 million mt, with firmer demand for consumer products, particularly in China due to renewed lockdowns that occured in Q2 2022. Looking ahead, Wilmar was optimistic that performance for the rest of the year will be satisfactory.
“The recent corrections in commodity prices will hopefully restore some of the demand destroyed by high prices and improve margins in the downstream business. At the same time, whilst palm oil prices have fallen from their peak in Q2 2022, they remain higher than the pre-Covid period, thus mitigating the effects on oil palm plantation performance,” Kuok Khoon Hong, Chairman and CEO of Wilmar said.

 

 

Aug 04  - Europe Pre Open Comments (StoneX)

- In the cash side of grains there is a lot of tenders here there and everywhere and a lot of that demand is being met by French/EU wheat. Of course the inacurate EU export data hides that but it is there. How that is presenting itself in the futures market is the strength of EU wheat versus for example US wheat futures.
- For all the criticisms of futures markets, US wheat exports are weak, EU exports are strong and the spreads are reflecting that very well.
- The EU corn crop is horrible looking and again the futures are reflecting this best in spreads, that is the wheat-maize spread on Matif.
- If we zoom right out and broaden our horizons to the wider commodity futures markets, out
of COVID and into the war materials markets (Copper, steel, lumber etc.) rallied quicker than everything else, then grains and then energy.
- Now the materials markets are largely normalised in price terms, grains/food markets are
following their trajectory and energy markets are following in behind. 3 waves. Is it mission accomplished by the FED. who had a stated goal of redcing inflation? The ECB did nothing and while natural gas demand is declining we are at seasonal lows and the ECB basically threw a cup of water at the problem.
- Funds are in long liquidation mode as the inflation theme is no longer topical. There is a lot of noise out of the US about crops there but its neither very good nor very bad.
- I think that the bulls focused on regular weather related rallies will have to wait and see what if any issues may come to Brazil. What you are looking for is any delays to the soybean plantings to upset summer corn yields

Aug 04  - U.S. soybean harvest threatened by August weather outlook
Soybeans in key growing areas of the U.S. Midwest will likely face more hot and dry conditions during August, their critical growing month, that could threaten harvest yields, according to weather forecasts. The world needs a big U.S. crop to replenish global stockpiles that have been pegged at a six-year low. Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted trade flows and triggered worries about possible food shortages.

Aug 04  - Ukraine’s grain exports, crop still must prove themselves - Braun
The volume of grain Ukraine will have available for export over the coming year and whether those shipments can run smoothly remains to be seen, though optimism has increased with the first sea departure of a grain vessel since Russia's invasion. Estimates across the industry still vary on harvest potential, but there are suggestions, including from Kyiv, that the grain crop could be larger than previously thought.

Aug 04  - Lebanon clears ship accused of carrying stolen Ukrainian grain for departure

Transport authorities have allowed a ship Ukraine accuses of carrying stolen grain to depart Lebanon despite the Ukrainian embassy asking Beirut to reopen a probe into the matter after presenting what it said was new evidence. Lebanese Transport Minister Ali Hamie told Reuters on Wednesday afternoon that port authorities in the northern city of Tripoli had cleared the ship to depart.

Aug 04  - Romania has wheat surplus to export, farm min says as harvest nears end
Romania's wheat harvest is large enough to cover its domestic needs and ensure a surplus for exports, Agriculture Minister Petre Daea said on Wednesday, with 96% of the crop reaped so far. High temperatures and prolonged drought have affected crops, particularly maize and sunflower seeds, across the country and preliminary ministry data on Wednesday showed damage to 205,257 hectares out of roughly 7 million of grain and oil-producing crops.

Aug 03  - EU Morning Comments (StoneX)
- Nancy Pelosi landed in Taiwan safe and sound but grain markets were not too hot on the idea that the US are antagonising one of their main grain customers.
- Our Brazilian colleagues pegging the Brazilian corn crop at 121MMT and our US colleagues pegging the US corn yields at 176bu/acre. So far so good for the bears. Corn buyers will be glad to see these numbers but I dont think we can over-state the disaster unfolding for the European maize crop.
- France has had the driest July on record, German temperatures are on the rise now to stress crops there.
- The high electiricy price will incentivise farmers to whole crop maize for biogas. A 50MMT or lower crop is in the cards despite the EU/USDA forecasts.
- The sunseed crop will be very lucky to stay above 10MMT.
- The dry weather also impacting logistics with Rhine/Danube water levels at water levels that only facilitate 25% loading capacity in places.
- Funds have normalised their wheat positions on Matif and they are now net short on rapeseed.
- The "flow" of grain from Ukraine is still a shadow of its former self, I am trying to look forward a few months when the winter comes what that means for over-land logistics and what the farmers will do with winter wheat plantings. This is the true test of next years supply outlook for wheat. The range of winter wheat planting in Ukraine is -25% to -75%.
- RME premiums in biodiesel are rocketing and thats well correlated to the low Rhine water levels.
- Wheat-maize spreads point to more wheat feeding, but what of overall feeding demand?

Aug 03  - EU 2022/23 soft wheat exports at 1.77 mln tonnes by July 31
Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2022/23 season that started last month had reached 1.77 million tonnes by July 31, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. That compared to 1.57 million tonnes by the same week in 2021/22, the data showed.

Aug 03  - First grain ship to leave Ukraine anchors off Turkish coast

The first grain-carrying ship to leave Ukrainian ports in wartime safely anchored off Turkey's coast on Tuesday, while a senior official said Ankara expects roughly one grain ship to depart from Ukraine every day as long as the export agreement holds. The first ship, the Razoni, carrying 26,527 tonnes of corn to Lebanon, anchored near the Bosphorus entrance from the Black Sea at around 1800 GMT, some 36 hours after departing from Ukraine's Odesa port.

Aug 03  - Huge Brazil soy crop estimates for 2023 may not be excessive
- Braun
Brazil will not start planting its next soybean crop until later next month, but the world’s top producer and supplier seems well-positioned to chip into U.S. export share over the next year based on staggering harvest pegs. Although the numbers are hefty, early market estimates for Brazil’s crop have tended to be on the conservative side in recent years, excluding last year’s drought cycle. That downfall allowed U.S. exporters this year to snag a five-year-high share of world soybean trade.

Aug 02  - First Ukraine grain ship reaches safe waters, others set to arrive (AgriCensus)

- The first ship carrying grain from Ukraine’s deep-sea ports has successfully moved to safe waters and is heading into Istanbul for inspections, while further vessels are preparing to arrive in Ukraine. The Razoni, which is on a test journey carrying 26,000 mt of corn, left Ukraine’s port of Odesa Monday and is currently in the Black Sea, according to tracking service Marine Traffic.

- At the same time, trade sources said another vessel that is on its way to Ukraine – a bulker called Osprey S with a 30,570 mt deadweight – is now halfway through its journey and is expected to arrive in Chornomorsk by August 5, according to Marine Traffic. This comes after last week the first selling indications appeared in the market on a FOB Pivdennyi/Odesa/Chornomorsk (POC) basis in the market for both wheat and corn, although those were seen by market observers as merely price ideas, as freight availability is still questionable.

- It also follows a tender for Ukrainian wheat launched by the World Food Program last week, in which Cargill reportedly sold 30,000 mt of 11% milling wheat at $340/mt FOB POC, the first deal on this basis since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24. Freight sources were not able to give an exact price for freight rates from Ukraine, as it is still hard to get an idea of the insurance costs, but at the same time, many have agreed that the premium over will be at least at $35-40/mt for a handy vessel.

- Ukraine signed an agreement with Turkey and the UN on July 22, while Russia signed a mirror agreement, paving the way for the first vessels carrying agriculture products to leave Ukrainian deep-sea ports since February. Ukraine has been sitting on grain stocks of at least 16 million mt of wheat and corn alone, having harvested a record grain crop in the 2021/22 marketing year that it subsequently could not export abroad after the Russian invasion blocked its deep-sea ports.

- Despite the difficulties and ongoing war, Ukraine is still on its way to harvesting a decent crop in the 2022/23 marketing year, with wheat production estimated at around 19-20 million mt and corn at around 26-27 million mt.

 

 

Aug 02  - Spanish garlic crop sees a 20% y/y fall due to low spring temperatures (IHSmarkit)

- 2022 crop projected at 220,000 tonnes
- Low temperatures and spring heavy rains have cut average yield

- The Spanish garlic association (Anpca) projects a crop of around 220,000 tonnes, 20% less year-on-year, due to low temperatures between March-April and heavy spring rains. This unfavourable weather cut sun hours and the average yield, particularly in Castile-La Mancha and Andalusia, the main origins. Average quality for white varieties has been low although for purple ones it has been extremely good, according to Anpca.

- The association explained that production costs have grown by 37% y/y due to wages, energy, fertilisers and land rents. Exports are slowed due to high logistics costs and bumper crops and high carry-over stocks in traditional importers such as Brazil.

Aug 02  - EU cuts maize crop forecast by 8%, raises import outlook
The European Commission has lowered its monthly forecast for this year's maize harvest in the European Union by 8%, or 5.9 million tonnes, joining other forecasters who have cut their expectations due to torrid weather in the bloc. The Commission now sees the EU maize (corn) crop at 65.8 million tonnes compared with 71.7 million forecast in late June and 72.7 million harvested last year, supply and demand data posted late last week showed.

Aug 02  - China may grant Brazilian soymeal export permits in two months

Brazilian Agriculture Minister Marcos Montes said on Monday Chinese authorizations for Brazilian soymeal exporters may be granted in the space of two months. Speaking at an event in São Paulo, Montes explained Brazilian government officials will inspect the plants as part of the process to obtain the desired export permits from Beijing.

Aug 01  - First vessel carrying grain leaves Ukrainian deep-sea port of Odesa (AgriCensus)

- The first vessel carrying Ukrainian grain left the port of Odesa Monday, just over a week after an agreement was signed on unblocking Ukraine's deep-sea ports and after three months of talks and discussions, Ukraine's ministry of infrastructure said in an official notice. The vessel Razoni, which is carrying 26,000 mt of Ukrainian corn and is headed to the port of Tripoli, Lebanon under the Sierra-Leone flag, left from the Novolog terminal, as it had been scheduled to do prior to the war, according to line-up data.

- According to the line-up, the exporter was said to be Grainexpo, while market sources said the cargo belongs to VA Intertrading.
"In the ports of greater Odesa, there are 16 more ships waiting their turn. These are vessels that have been blocked since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine," Oleksandr Kubrakov, Ukraine's minister of infrastructure said in a note.
"At the same time, we will receive applications for the arrival of new vessels for loading agricultural products,” he said.

- The ports include Odesa itself, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi. The minister added that in the coming weeks, Ukraine plans to reach full capacity for transshipment of agricultural products, with the help of international partners.

- The Razoni's departure comes a week after an agreement was signed between Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN about the de-blocking of the ports, while a mirror agreement was also signed with Russia, Turkey and the UN.
For the last week, the market has been on pause waiting for vessels to start to move, especially as buyers were hoping that this might put additional pressure on prices if the initiative is successful, while trade sources familiar with the situation said there were still some issues to be solved.

Aug 01  - First grain ship could leave Ukraine on Monday -Turkish presidential spokesperson
The possibility of the first grain-exporting ship leaving Ukraine's ports on Monday is high, a spokesperson for President Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday. "If all (details) are completed by tomorrow, it seems like there is a high possibility that the first ship will leave the port tomorrow...We will see ships leaving the ports the next day at the latest," Kalin said.

Aug 01  - Russia pounds Ukrainian port; Putin announces global maritime ambitions
Russian missiles pounded Ukraine's port city Mykolaiv on the Black Sea, as President Vladimir Putin signed a new naval doctrine casting the United States as Russia's main rival and setting global maritime ambitions in the Black Sea and Arctic. Putin did not mention the conflict in Ukraine during a speech marking Russia's Navy Day on Sunday, but said the navy would receive hypersonic Zircon cruise missiles in coming months. The missiles can travel at nine times the speed of sound, outrunning air defences.

Aug 01  - Beirut silo collapses, reviving trauma ahead of blast anniversary

Part of the grain silos at Beirut Port collapsed on Sunday just days before the second anniversary of the massive explosion that damaged them, sending a cloud of dust over the capital and reviving traumatic memories of the blast that killed more than 215 people. There were no immediate reports of injuries.

Aug 01  - Funds shave bullish CBOT bets early on in weather-driven rally - Braun
Chicago grain and oilseed futures rallied in historic fashion last week as hot and dry August forecasts threaten to curb U.S. crop potential, but speculators had not materially changed their easing bullish views a couple days into the price spike. Like many others in recent months, the week ended July 26 featured "round trip" price action, where CBOT corn and soybean futures fell sharply then rose again within the period. That muted overall speculative activity for the week, which had been well reflected in trade estimates.

Jul 29  - New US budget bill a boon for corn, soy, in road and aviation biofuels

- Democrats in the US Senate have agreed to back the Inflation Reduction Act, which contains several major provisions to support crop-based biofuels - reliant mainly on soyoil and corn - that have been retained from a previous climate package blocked in the upper house since 2021. The bill includes a new dedicated tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and an extension of the existing credit for road-based biodiesels through 2024, but then transitions to a 'Clean Fuel Production Credit' for the years 2025-2027, with the new credit applying to domestic production credit only, unlike the current BTC.

- The package of measures in a repurposed climate-focused bill  – which took many in Washington by surprise – were drawn up by senior Democrats in consultation with Joe Manchin, the West Virginia senator who had effectively blocked President Biden’s ‘Build Back Better’ bill since the middle of last year. The package, which accounts for around $370 billion in direct spending but could almost double that in potential benefits to the US economy, according to the White House, is much smaller in scope than the stalled 'Build Back Better' package of climate measures and other policies aimed at promoting cleaner growth in the US and making greener technologies more affordable.
“With this legislation, we’re facing up to some of our biggest problems and we’re taking a giant step forward as a nation … This bill is far from perfect, it’s a compromise, but that’s often how progress is made: by compromises,” President Joe Biden said in a statement on the bill, which has been named with a nod to surging inflation in the US that has been largely driven by higher oil prices.    

- US Secretary for Agriculture Tom Vilsack said in a statement that the bill would benefit farmers.
“Agriculture has long been at the forefront of our fight against climate change. From climate-smart agriculture, to supporting healthy forests and conservation, to tax credits, to biofuels, infrastructure and beyond, this agreement provides USDA with significant additional resources to continue to lead the charge," he said.

- Although the bill was mainly energy focussed, it provides around $20 billion to farms to sequester more carbon through soil tilling techniques and biogas capture.

Jul 29  - Ukraine. End of Day FOB Report
- The Ukrainian FOB market remained unchanged in prices. The only exception is the rapeseed market, which is steadily increasing.  It is Friday, market liquidity is very low, and we don't hear about any significant trades. Buyers and sellers stay in their old positions, and participants are waiting for the situation around Ukrainian ports to develop.
- According to our information, the following vessels will be the first to leave Ukrainian ports:
1) From Chernomorsk port - m/v "ROJEN" and m/v "STAR HELENA",
2) From Odesa port - m/v "RAZONI", m/v "RIVAL WIND" and m/v "NAVI STAR".
Anyway, the exchange markets are going up, there is demand in the market, it's quite lively, and we can expect an increase in spot prices as early as Monday.

Jul 29  - U.N. says details for safe Ukraine grain shipments still being worked out
U.N. aid chief Martin Griffiths said on Thursday he was hopeful that the first shipment of grain from a Ukrainian Black Sea port could take place as early as Friday, but "crucial" details for the safe passage of vessels were still being worked out. Griffiths said Turkish, Russian and Ukrainian military officials were working with a U.N. team at a Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul to hammer out standard operating procedures for the deal agreed by the four parties last Friday.

Jul 29  - Brazil clear to export soymeal to China, government confirms

The Brazilian government confirmed that China has opened its market to soybean meal produced in the South American country, adding shipments would begin when certain bureaucratic hurdles are removed. The confirmation came after Brazilian newspaper O Estado De S.Paulo said the authorization to sell Brazilian soymeal to China "was made official this month," citing comments from the secretary of commerce and international relations at the Brazilian agriculture ministry.

Jul 29  - Syrian ship carrying 'stolen Ukrainian barley, flour' docks in Lebanon, Ukrainian embassy says
A Syrian ship under U.S. sanctions has docked in the northern Lebanese port of Tripoli carrying barley and wheat that the Ukrainian embassy in Beirut told Reuters on Thursday had been plundered by Russia from Ukrainian stores. The Laodicea docked in Tripoli on Wednesday, according to shipping data website MarineTraffic.

Jul 29  - Indonesia's palm oil exports gather pace after levy removal
- official
Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) exports are picking up pace after the government waived its export levy to ease a supply glut, a senior Finance Ministry official said on Wednesday. The world's biggest producer of the vegetable oil has removed an export levy for all palm oil products effective July 15 to August 31.

Jul 28  - Malaysia and India to deepen cooperation on palm oil (AgriCensus)

- The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) and the Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to cooperate further on palm oil use and development, the IVPA said in a press release issued Thursday. The MoU, which was signed on the sidelines of the ongoing Malaysia International Agricommodity Expo & Summit (MIACES) 2022 in Kuala Lumpur, is expected to expand cooperation in areas of mutual interest and broadly promote the development and use of Malaysian palm oil and Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certified palm oil. Areas of cooperation covered in the MoU include Indian consumer education, the promotion of MSPO in India, business, technical and research exchange between the two countries’ palm oil sectors, supporting the technical sourcing for India’s “Atmanirbhar Bharat” plans and the assistance in the development of India’s palm oil industry.

- Sudhakar Desai, President of IVPA said that the MoU would "go a long way in addressing the issues related to palm oil promotion, sustainability, research and development and right policy advocacy and will create a platform for regular exchange of ideas for the benefit of all stakeholders.”
- Malaysia exported approximately 1.4 million mt of palm oil to India between January-June this year, according to data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB).
- IVPA’s Desai also added that India is expected to import around 3.8-4 million mt of palm oil from Malaysia in 2022.
- Malaysia has also been actively making efforts to promote its palm oil, with previous MoUs signed with Saudi Arabia’s Savola Group and UAE-based multinational conglomerate LuLu Group International earlier this year.

Jul 28  - Bunge earnings miss sends shares down, full-year profit raised
Bunge Ltd posted a 15% jump in second-quarter adjusted profit on Wednesday, but results of the global farm commodities merchant missed Wall Street expectations and its share price fell nearly 5%. The company raised its full-year profit forecast and discussed plans to spend about $3.3 billion on investments and expenditures in the next few years.

Jul 28  - Ukraine grain export coordination centre opens in Istanbul
Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar on Wednesday unveiled a centre in Istanbul to oversee the export of Ukrainian grains after a landmark U.N. deal last week, with the first shipment expected to depart from Black Sea ports within days. Russia and Ukraine signed the deal, brokered by Ankara and the United Nations, on Friday to reopen grain and fertiliser exports that have been blocked by war to ease an international food crisis.

Jul 28  - Ukraine says its grain exports down 47% so far in 2022/23 season

Ukraine's grain exports in the first 26 days of July, the first month of the 2022/23 season, were down 47% year on year at 1.23 million tonnes, the agriculture ministry said on Wednesday. Grain exports for the 2021/22 season ending June 30 rose 8.5% to 48.5 million tonnes, driven by strong shipments before Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Jul 27  - BASF cuts ammonia production in response to soaring gas prices (AgriCensus)

- Germany’s BASF, one of the world largest fertiliser producers, is to implement fresh cuts to its ammonia production in response to soaring natural gas prices, the company announced on Wednesday.
"We are reducing production at facilities that require large volumes of natural gas, such as ammonia plants," BASF’s chief executive said during a media call following the release of the company’s results for the second quarter 2022.

- He added that the higher energy costs would be passed onto consumers and farmers can expect a sharp increase in fertiliser costs next year. According to the company, the gas bill for its European production sites during the second quarter of 2022 has increased by around €8 million compare to the same period last year.
- The company reported that, where possible, it will substitute natural gas for alternative energy sources such as fuel oil while increasing ammonia purchases from external suppliers in order to plug immediate supply gaps.
- The company also reports that it expects to be able to sustain operations at its Ludwigshafen production site in the event that the German government activates the “emergency” phase of its response plan to natural gas shortages.

- Under the emergency plan, all participants in the German market are obliged to take coordinated action to avoid gaps in supply and to achieve the target storage level of 85% by October 1, 2022.
“Should the German government declare the third and final 'emergency' stage, we currently expect that BASF would still receive sufficient natural gas to maintain operations at the Ludwigshafen site at a reduced load,” BASF chief Martin Brudermuller said, speaking at a press conference on Wednesday.

- European gas prices have soared after Russia’s Gazprom announced on Tuesday that it would reduce daily gas deliveries to Germany and other central European countries via the Nord Stream pipeline to 33m cubic metres a day or around 20% of the pipeline’s capacity. Germany imports approximately 55% of its gas from Russia with most of it being delivered via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

- The statement from BASF follows an announcement from Yara International that it is reducing fertiliser production at several plants and has so far curtailed output amounting to an annual capacity of 1.3 million mt of ammonia and 1.7 mt of finished fertilizer.

Jul 27  - Grain merchant ADM expects strong profits as supplies stay tight
Tight global grain supplies are expected to keep profits at crop merchant Archer-Daniels-Midland Co strong for the rest of the year, executives said on Tuesday, with shipments from Ukraine likely to restart slowly. Shares climbed 5% to their highest in more than a month after the company reported a 74% rise in second-quarter earnings.

Jul 27  - BASF considers more ammonia production cuts in gas supply crunch
- sources
Germany's BASF, the world's largest chemical company, is considering further cuts to ammonia production due to soaring natural gas prices, two sources familiar with the matter said, with potential ramifications from farming to fizzy drinks. Germany's biggest ammonia maker SKW Piesteritz and number four Ineos also said they could not rule out production cuts as the country grapples with disruption to Russian gas supplies.

Jul 27  - Turkey tells Ukraine it is important for first grain shipment to take place soon
Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar on Monday told Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov that it was important for the first shipment of grain under a U.N.-brokered deal to take place as soon as possible, his ministry said. In a statement, the ministry said Akar welcomed a statement that Kyiv hopes to begin implementing the deal this week, adding Turkey would continue to do what it has to under the agreement.

Jul 26  - ADM’s Q2 profits surge 74% y-o-y on high grain demand, tight supply (AgriCensus)

- Net earnings for global agricultural commodities producer and trader Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM) surged by 74% in the second quarter of 2022 compared with the same period of last year, to $1.24 billion, or $2.18 per share ($2.15 on an adjusted basis), the company said on Tuesday. ADM’s net earnings in the first six months ended June 30 reached $2.3 billion, up 64% from $1.4 billion in the previous year.

- The increases came as the firm benefited from higher demand and tighter supplies after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine blocked grain export from the Black Sea regions. ADM achieved “exceptional results” in its Ag Services & Oilseeds segment, with an operating profit in the second quarter nearly doubling versus a year ago to $1.12 billion. Within the segment, operating profit in Ag Services reached $407 million, jumping over 114% from $190 million recorded in the previous year.
“The destination marketing team’s ability to meet customer demand around the globe… contributed to significantly higher year-over-year profits,” the company said in its quarterly financial statement.
“North America had a solid performance as export volumes remained strong in a good global demand environment… South America results were higher, based on stronger origination volumes and better margins driven by strong global grain demand,” it added.

- The crushing business delivered higher year-on-year increases in operating profit, with a surge of 212% to $468 million, on “strong soy crush margins” underpinned by robust meal and oil demand. Operating profit in the first half of 2022 for Ag Services & Oilseeds came in at $2.13 billion, up $780 million from $1.35 billion in the previous year.

- In the Carbohydrate Solutions segment, Q2 operating profit jumped 23.5% from the same period last year to $473 million on solid demand for ethanol and corn oil and higher ethanol and sweetener margins. The nutrition segment delivered a 16% revenue growth to over $2 billion and a 19% higher year-on-year operating profit.
“Healthy demand for alternative proteins resulted in strong soy protein volumes and margins, as contributions from the Sojaprotein acquisition, as well as good demand for texturants, drove higher results in Specialty Ingredients,” the report said.

- ADM's total revenue in the second quarter of 2022 reached $27.3 billion, up 27% from $22.9 billion in the same period of last year.
“Looking forward, we expect the combination of our strategic actions and continued good demand for our products to propel very strong earnings in the second half of 2022,” said Chairman and CEO Juan Luciano.

Jul 26  - Russian gas cut to Europe hits economic hopes, Ukraine reports attacks on coastal regions
Russia said it will cut gas supplies to Europe from Wednesday in a blow to countries that have backed Ukraine, while missile attacks in Black Sea coastal regions raised doubts about whether Russia will stick to a deal to let Ukraine export grain. The first ships from Ukraine may set sail in days under a deal agreed on Friday, the United Nations said, despite a Russian missile attack on the Ukrainian port of Odesa over the weekend, and a spokesman for the military administration in the saying another missile had hit the Odesa region on Tuesday morning.

Jul 26  - Brazil's second corn crop 62% harvested, local prices under pressure
Brazilian farmers have harvested 61.8% of their second corn crop in center-south fields, up roughly nine percentage points from last week, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday as rising output pressured growers to drop prices in the country. Harvesting so far in the 2021/22 season totaled some 50 million tonnes, AgRural said in a report, noting that work is gaining pace in states such as Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul amid a recent improvement in grain humidity.

Jul 25 - EU spring crops yield reduced amid ongoing drought conditions: MARS

- The EU’s crop monitoring service has substantially reduced its expectations for the bloc's 2022 spring crops, amid continued drier-than-usual conditions across large parts of the continent, while winter crops – which are reaching the end of the season – were subject to minor changes at the EU level and remain close to the 5-year average, a monthly update said Monday.

- The July report published by Monitoring Agriculture Resources (MARS) showed that hot temperatures continued to have an adverse impact across the region's key growing regions. At an EU level, 2022 yield forecasts for corn, sunflowers, and soybeans are expected to reduce by 8 to 9%, below the 5-year average.

- Negative impacts on the yield potential of spring crops are most pronounced in regions, such as large parts of Spain, southern France, central and northern Italy, central Germany, northern Romania, eastern Hungary, and western and southern Ukraine.

- In many of those regions, the negative impacts of such extreme heat (the highest temperatures since at least 1990) weather events were exacerbated by lower-than-usual soil water content due to below-average rainfall or above-average temperatures in preceding months. Water reservoirs are at a very low level and the availability of water for irrigation is insufficient to sustain spring crop demand. Moreover, the high temperatures currently observed, and forecast until the end of July, are likely to affect crops in the flowering stage, thus reducing flower fertility.

- The report noted that there is little that can be now done to reverse the impact, as hot, dry conditions continue to dominate.

Jul  25  - Ukraine works to resume grain exports, flags Russian strikes as risk
Ukraine forged ahead with efforts to restart grain exports from its Black Sea ports under a deal aimed at easing global food shortages but warned deliveries would suffer if a Russian missile strike on Odesa was a sign of more to come. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy denounced Saturday's attack as "barbarism" showing Moscow could not be trusted to implement a deal struck a day earlier with Turkish and United Nations mediation.

Jul  25  - Malaysia warns of weaker Q3 palm oil price as Indonesia scraps export levy
Malaysian crude palm oil prices will remain weak for most of the third quarter of this year, the country's commodities minister said on Monday, after rival producer Indonesia scrapped its export levy. "This is inevitable in light of stiffer competition from Indonesia – the world's largest palm oil producer – in its quest to flush out as much excess palm oil possible from its existing stockpile," Zuraida Kamaruddin said in a statement.

Jul  25  - China said to buy large volume of French and Australian wheat this week

Buyers from China purchased large volumes of Australian and French wheat this week in a sign that the Asian country is taking advantage of a recent dip in prices to fill its large needs, European traders said on Friday. Traders reported purchases of around 1 million tonnes of Australian wheat, both for animal feed and flour milling, this week for shipment periods between September and March.

Jul 22  - UN hails ‘beacon of hope’ as Russia, Ukraine sign grain corridor deal

- The United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has hailed the signing of a landmark deal between Russia and Ukraine to re-open grain export routes in the Black Sea as a “beacon of hope” after five months of conflict. The agreement, brokered by Turkey and signed in Istanbul, allows “significant volumes of commercial food exports” from the ports of Odesa, Chernomorsk and Pivdennyi and will also safeguard the export of Russian grains and fertilizers, according to the UN.
Today, there is a beacon on the Black Sea... A beacon of hope – a beacon of possibility – a beacon of relief - in a world that needs it more than ever,” Guterres told delegates at the signing ceremony.

- Mounting fears that the ongoing Russian invasion, which started on February 24, was leading to the blockade of Ukraine’s ports and preventing exports from one of the most significant producing regions in the world. In the months that followed, attacks on key Ukrainian infrastructure and the interruption of trade flows stoked fears that the loss of corn, wheat and oilseed exports could spark famine across developing nations – leading the UN and Turkey to step up efforts to find a diplomatic solution.

- The agreement will lead to the creation of a Joint Coordination Centre to monitor the agreement, while there is no explicit requirement for Ukraine to remove naval mines that have been placed in the approaches to the country’s Black Sea coast. That was a key concern for Ukraine’s authorities who feared that any lowering of defences could allow Russian forces to mount an invasion further along the coast and target key export facilities around Odesa. Where mine clearance is needed, it would be undertaken by a third nation with the approval of all parties – while observance of the deal will be undertaken remotely, as “no military ships, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles may approach the maritime humanitarian corridor” without agreement.

- The contract also stipulates that all vessels will have to be inspected for ‘unauthorized cargoes and personnel’ – likely a reference to military hardware and trained soldiers, that Russia is concerned could be smuggled to support Ukrainian forces. The deal explicitly includes a guarantee that merchant vessels will not be attacked and that Ukrainian territorial waters remain exclusively under the control of Ukrainian authorities, with the agreement in place for 120 days from its signing.

- Prior to the outbreak of the war, Chornomorsk was the busiest port in Ukraine’s line-up, handling 12.8 million mt of grains in the marketing year up to February 24.
- Yuzhny, or Pivdennyi as it is also known, was listed in third place with 9 million mt, with the two ports accounting for 48% of total seaborne exports from Ukraine, according to pre-war line up data.
- In between the two Mykolaiv was fractionally behind Chornomorsk as the second busiest port – but the city is now on the front line and regularly subjected to Russian shelling and missile attacks.
- Odesa, finally, sat in fourth place with 4.7 million mt handled – around 10% of all exports.
- Analysts expect the re-opening of the ports could lift Ukraine’s export capacity towards five million mt per month – on par with its pre-war capacity, but trade sources stressed that insurance would remain a major challenge.
- Trade sources also expected most of the volume to reflect coaster sizes of around 10,000 mt, rather than the handy and panamax-sized vessels of up to 70,000 mt that used to dominate Ukraine’s line up.

Jul 22  - Fertilizer cargo from Russia heads to U.S. as many worry about food shortages
A tanker carrying a liquid fertilizer product from Russia is about to arrive in the United States, sources and vessel tracking data showed in recent days, at a time of widespread worry that sky-high global fertilizer prices could lead to food shortages. President Joe Biden's administration has not blacklisted Russian agricultural commodities, including fertilizers, in the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion.

Jul 22  - IGC trims forecast for 2022/23 world corn crop, cites EU drought stress
The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday trimmed its forecast for 2022/23 global corn output, largely driven by drought stress in the European Union. In its monthly update, the inter-governmental body reduced its 2022/23 world corn (maize) crop outlook by 1 million tonnes to 1.189 billion tonnes, well below the previous season's 1.220 billion tonnes.

Jul 22  - South Korea’s NOFI buys estimated 138,000 tonnes corn in tender
South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has bought an estimated 138,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in an international tender which closed on Thursday, European traders said. The corn was bought for arrival in South Korea in two 69,000 tonne consignments in November in a combination of outright prices and premiums over Chicago corn futures. The corn is expected to be sourced from South America and/or South Africa.

Jul 21  - IGC cuts world grain production by 3 million mt to 2.25b mt

- The International Grains Council (IGC) cut its world grain production forecast for the 2022/23 marketing year by 3 million mt on Thursday, as extensive droughts across the EU harmfully affected the outlook for wheat, barley, and corn crops. Overall wheat, coarse grains, soybean, and rice production outlooks were set at 2.252 billion mt, or 2% down year-on-year, which would be the first reduction in the last five seasons if realised. Mainly the burden of those fears fell on corn and wheat, while rice production figures provided a contrast, with production forecasts improving on the bigger outlooks in Asia.

- The wheat production forecast increased by 1 million mt compared to the previous report and amounted to 770 million mt, however, this is 11 million mt (1.4%) below last year's figures.

- Corn production was cut by 1 million mt from the previous forecast to 1.189 billion mt, or 2.5% lower year on year. Nonetheless, world stocks were unchanged from the previous report and amounted to 583 million mt, or 4% below last year. Overall grain trade forecasts settled at 406 million mt, or 3.8% below last year, due to a drop in corn, and wheat trade.

- Soybean outlook production in the 2022/23 marketing year decreased by 4 million mt to 386 million mt versus the previous report, however, it is still 10% above the last year. The soybean trade forecast for the 2022/23 marketing year decreased by 1 million mt versus the last report but still settled at 165 million mt, 7% up year-on-year.

- Rice contributed the final 518 million mt, unchanged versus the agency's last forecast, but up 3 million mt versus the previous marketing year.

Jul 21  - Sudanese, Senegalese and Nigerian peanut plantings in full swing (IHSmarkit)

- Sudan (East), Nigeria and Senegal (both in West), the main African origins, are planting their new peanut crop just now with high production costs due to inflation, according to the Indian peanut processors PnutKing in its latest market update.
- Sudan and Senegal have completed 80% of sowing and Nigeria half. Nigerian peanuts are sold at record levels of $1.2/kg due to inflation.
- Meanwhile, Sudan is selling at $0.88/kg in the domestic market and $1,100-1,175/tonne c&f to China, once Port Sudan activity is completely recovered. Sudan’s shipments are in full swing, covering the gaps in the Chinese market.

Jul 21  - Palm-Oil Prices Fall; May Remain Soft Near Term (DJ - UOB)

- Palm-oil prices are lower in early Asian trade. Prices could continue to be soft in the near-term, but may be supported by recovering demand, UOB Kay Hian analysts Leow Huey Chuen and Jacquelyn Yow say in a note. - The analysts note that Indonesia's exports could receive a boost from the government's decision to suspend palm-oil export levy until August 31. Indonesia temporarily suspended the levy after the Indonesian Palm Oil Association announced inventory levels rose as much as 7.2 million metric tons, a record high in May.
- The benchmark Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange contract is down by MYR78 to MYR3,857 a metric ton.

Jul 21  - Germany's winter barley crop up, wheat suffers from heat - farm lobby
Germany's 2022 winter barley crop will increase to about 9 million tonnes which would be up from about 8.8 million tonnes last year, the association of German farmers DBV said on Wednesday. Winter barley, generally used for animal feed, was generally fully developed before the current heat wave struck, it said in a harvest report.

Jul 21  - Morocco’s OCP offers Africa 550k tonnes of fertilisers
Morocco's state phosphates and fertiliser producer OCP will offer 180,000 tonnes of soil nutrients in aid and 370,000 tonnes at a discount to help African states cope with surging prices, a senior company executive said on Wednesday.  The donated and discounted volumes will represent 16% of African demand this year and a quarter of OCP group's sales on the continent said Nada Elmajdoub, executive vice president performance management, in an interview with Reuters.

Jul 21  - Ship insurers seek more assurances on Ukraine grain corridor
Insurers will only be willing to cover ships sailing through a proposed corridor to get Ukrainian grain out if there are arrangements for international navy escorts and a clear strategy to deal with sea mines, underwriters and brokers say. Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations are expected to sign a deal later this week aimed at resuming the shipping of grain from Ukraine across the Black Sea.

Jul 21  - Rhine water falls again in Germany, river ships cut loads
Water levels on the river Rhine in Germany have fallen again after this week’s heatwave and cargo vessels are sailing with significantly reduced loads, navigation authorities said on Wednesday. Shallow water is hampering shipping on the entire river in Germany south of Duisburg and Cologne.

Jul 20  - Price gap between Russian wheat grades to stay high as protein drops (AgriCensus)

- Poor weather over parts of Russia's main producing regions is likely to mean that the supply of higher protein wheat will remain in relatively tight supply - supporting an increased price gap between quality milling wheats and lower quality grades, trade sources have told Agricensus. Russia is on course to deliver its biggest ever wheat crop, but higher yields and rains over some of the main Russian producing regions mean the crop currently being harvested is showing more 11.5% or feed grades were harvested so far compared to last year.

- The price gap between the 12.5%, 11.5%, and feed wheat grades have been increasing over the last week with a gap of almost $16-17/mt seen between 11.5% and 12.5% grades in coaster-sized CIF Marmara trades last week, but offers on a deep sea port basis have also widened to show the same $17/mt differential. Currently, the lowest offer for 12.5% protein level wheat is shown in the market at $360/mt FOB, compared to 11.5% offers heard at $343/mt FOB.
“Yes, the protein has dropped, but from a very high-level last year, so it's not that bad yet. But now we are waiting for the results of widespread rains, which can change the picture,” Dmitry Rylko the General Director of analytical agency Ikar told Agricensus.
“It is not yet known, but with other things being equal, the quality will be below average, of course, as is usually the case with high yields,” Andrey Sizov, Managing Director of analytical agency Sovecon said.

- The bulk of the Russian wheat crop usually reaches 12.5% wheat, and last year dry and hot weather conditions brought a bigger amount of even higher protein wheats. That meant that, at some points, higher 13.5% protein wheat was offered at the same level as 12.5%, while 11.5% and feed wheat offers were almost absent through the marketing year.
“So far there are no yet reports from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, but there is a lot of feed and lower protein. I think 12.5% will be enough, in the end, it is just that there would be a high premium for quality this year. In the past it was almost non-existent,” a third source said.

- So far, Russia has harvested 22 million mt from 5.1 million hectares by July 18, which accounts for 17.4% of the planted area. The yield has been on the increase since the harvest started and currently stands at 4.32 mt/ha, 25% higher year on year. The estimates for the current wheat crop production stand at anywhere from 87 to 90 million mt, while USDA is still at 81 million mt.

- The previous Russian record crop was 87.8 million mt harvested in the 2017/18 marketing year, when wheat was planted on 27.3 million ha and the average yield reached 3.21 mt/ha.

Jul 20  - Fertiliser-maker Yara warns on shortages, Q2 beats
Norway's Yara, one of the world's biggest fertiliser producers, warned there could be shortages of nitrogen-based fertilisers due to high gas prices as it reported a higher than expected second-quarter profit on Tuesday. The Oslo-listed company said fertiliser markets could see shortages after Russia's invasion of Ukraine pushed food prices higher, with both countries being majors exporters of grains.

Jul 20  - Ukraine grain storage crisis hits home as farmers harvest new crops

While some crops have left by rail or road via neighbours such as Romania and Poland, millions of tonnes have piled up on farms and a lack of shipments from one of the world's biggest grain exporters is pushing up global food prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated this month that Ukraine ended the 2021/22 season in June with 6.8 million tonnes of corn, an eight-fold rise from the a year earlier, while wheat stocks almost quadrupled to 5.8 million.

Jul 20  - China's soybean imports from Brazil fall in June; U.S. shipments gain
China's soybean imports from Brazil in June fell while shipments from the United States increased, customs data showed on Wednesday, as high prices curbed demand for South American cargoes. China, the world's top soybean buyer, imported 7.24 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil in June, down from 10.48 million tonnes a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

Jul 20  - South Korea’s MFG bought 60,000 tonnes soymeal - traders
South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 60,000 tonnes of soymeal in a private deal on Monday without an international tenders being issued, European traders said on Tuesday. The soymeal is expected to be sourced from South America. It was purchased from trading house Bunge at an estimated $537.97 a tonne c&f including a surcharge for additional port unloading, they said.

Jul 19  - Russian wheat crop already at 22 million mt, yields improving (AgriCensus)

- The Russian wheat harvest advanced another eight percentage points during the week to July 18, with 22 million mt already in the bins and yield continuing to increase, official government data showed Tuesday. Russian farmers had already harvested an area of 5.1 million hectares by July 18, which accounts for 17.4% of the area planted. The yield continued to improve slightly through the week to 4.32 mt/ha, which is also 25% higher compared to last year’s result.  

- At the same time, trade sources continued to report bigger amounts of lower grades compared to last year, when the wheat harvested generally had a high protein content. Progress in the barley harvest was not that significant at only 2.3 percentage points, moving the total harvested to 10.5% of the plan, or for 3.7 million mt.

- Barley yields meanwhile declined during the period by 7% to 4.40 mt/ha, which is still around 14.6% above last year’s result at the same stage.

- The rapeseed harvest progress was also slow, with only 2.2 percentage points advancement through the week to 10.1% of the plan completed.

- That accounts to 572,700 mt harvested from 226,200 hectares, while the yield also marginally dropped to 2.53 mt/ha, which is 1% higher than the yield reported at the same stage in 2021.

Jul 19  - U.S. panel rejects duties on fertilizers from Russia, Trinidad and Tobago
The U.S. International Trade Commission revoked hefty anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on urea ammonium nitrate fertilizers from Russia and Trinidad and Tobago on Monday, concluding that those imports did not hurt American producers. The panel's vote may help ease shortages and price increases for fertilizers brought on by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, both major fertilizer exporters. It also marks a rare trade reprieve for Moscow amid tightening Western sanctions and other economic pressure over the nearly five month-old Ukraine conflict.

Jul 19  - Turkey says Ukraine, Russia, U.N. meeting this week on grain corridor "probable"
Officials from Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations will most likely meet this week to discuss resuming Ukraine's Black Sea grain exports, Ankara said on Monday, while a Turkish official said lingering "small problems" should be overcome. Russia's invasion of Ukraine - two major global wheat suppliers - has sent prices for grains and other food products soaring. It has stalled Kyiv's exports, leaving dozens of ships stranded and some 20 million tonnes of grain stuck in silos at Odesa.

Jul 19  - Brazil corn exports soar 221%, driven by Ukraine's absence
Brazilian corn exports via southern ports in Parana state have continued to exceed expectations, with shipments rising 221% in the first half of the year amid Ukraine's absence from the market. According to a Paranagua port authority statement on Monday, the rise in corn export volume was possible as demand picked up at a time when Brazil still had plenty of its summer corn crop to offer.

Jul 18  - Indonesia removes palm oil export levy from July 15-August 31 (AgriCensus)

- The world’s largest palm oil producer has removed its export levy for all palm oil products from July 15-August 31, in its latest move to incentivize exports amid an excess of supply at home. According to an official document from Indonesia’s finance ministry circulated Saturday, the export levy will be reduced to $0/mt for the above period and reinstated from September 1, when a progressive rate structure will apply depending on the crude palm oil (CPO) reference price.

- The maximum export levy for CPO was previously set at $200/mt from June 14 to July 31 if the CPO reference price exceeded $1,500/mt, following which Indonesia had planned to raise it to $240/mt from August 1.

- However, a combination of rising domestic inventory levels, a sluggish export pace and pressure from farmers facing an oversupply of palm fruit has caused the government to walk back on previous plans and consider new measures to raise its export volumes. The swell in inventories has stemmed largely from a three-week palm oil export ban which Indonesia imposed on April 28 to control high prices of local cooking oil. Since lifting the ban on May 23, various measures have been put in place – including reducing export taxes, launching a special export acceleration program, raising export quotas, and increasing its biodiesel blending mandate from B30 to B35 – to try and move existing inventory. However, the struggle remains, with latest figures from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) pegging end-May stock levels at 7.23 million mt.

- Meanwhile, market sources estimate current inventory levels at anywhere between 7-9 million mt, while CGS-CIMB placed end-June stock levels at 8-8.5 million mt. The supply glut has also caused palm oil mills to slow down purchases of fresh fruit bunches (FFB), with farmers decrying the government’s export policies as unsold palm fruit have been left to rot and prices of FFB have fallen.  

- Senior minister Luhut Pandjaitan earlier said that reducing the palm oil export levy and increasing exports will allow the price of FFB in the market to gradually rise.
“Removing the export levy will greatly help farmers to get our FFB prices to a better level. Based on our calculations, the removal of the levy will raise prices of CPO by Rp 3,000/kg ($200/mt) and this will cause an increase of Rp 1,000/kg ($66.73/mt) for FFB prices,” said Dr Gulat Manurung, Chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Farmers Association (Apkasindo).
“Even though it’s still low, we are still grateful for the Rp 1,000 price increase and hope other costs will be removed soon as well,” he added. According to Dr Gulat, average FFB prices in Indonesia are currently between Rp 1,450-1,850/kg ($96.80-123.40/mt), where they were previously Rp 900-1,250/kg ($60-83.40/mt).

- The extent to which this latest move succeeds in easing Indonesia’s inventory pressures remains in question, with market sources citing limitations created by the current vessel tightness and the existing domestic market obligation (DMO) requirement which caps sellers’ export capabilities based on the amount they sell locally.

Jul 18 - China issues phosphate quotas to rein in fertiliser exports - analysts
China is rolling out a quota system to limit exports of phosphates, a key fertiliser ingredient, in the second half of this year, analysts said, citing information from the country's major phosphate producers. The quotas, set well below year-ago export levels, would expand China's intervention in the market to keep a lid on domestic prices and protect food security while global fertiliser prices are hovering near record highs.

Jul 18 - Indonesia has to ship 6 mln T of palm oil up to August to clear tanks-assoc
Indonesia will have to export 6 million tonnes of palm oil until August if it wants to cut its ballooning inventory levels back to normal, an industry association said on Monday, after the government waived its export levy for one and a half months.  The world's biggest palm oil exporter over the weekend removed a levy on exports of the vegetable oil until August and tweaked the details of progressive levy rates for September, in a bid to boost exports and ease high domestic stock levels.

Jul 15  - Ukraine's weekly barley, wheat exports double, corn decreases: gov data (AgriCensus)

- Weekly
grain exports from Ukraine amounted to 315,459 mt, almost identical to the level of exports during the first week of the 2022/23 marketing year, with total exports increasing to 639,917 mt, according to data from the country's Ministry of Agriculture. During the week, 210,459 mt of corn were exported, which is 15.5% less than last week. Slightly more than 45% of the total corn was exported to Romania, 14% to Poland, and 11% to Hungary.

- The corn export volume for the first two weeks of the 2022/23 season was 459,459 mt, which is almost 6% below the level of the previous season on the same date.
- Weekly wheat exports increased nearly 53% to 79,719 mt, bringing total exports since the start of the season to 131,719 mt, down almost 47% from last year.
- The shares of Ukrainian wheat imports to Romania and Turkey almost leveled off, amounting to 35% and 33%, respectively.
- Barley exports more than doubled compared to last week to 34,280 mt. Almost 67% of exported barley went to Romania, official figures showed.
- Total barley exports since the start of the 2022/23 marketing year were 48,739 mt, almost 73% or 140,000 mt below the previous year.

Jul 15 - Indonesia palm oil industry urges gov't to ease export curbs as harvest to worsen oversupply
Indonesia's palm oil industry is urging authorities to ease export restrictions and taxes so it can sell produce that risks going to waste, as an upcoming harvest season is likely to keep inventories at full capacity. Easing export restrictions by the world's biggest palm oil producer will further depress prices which have dropped nearly half since late April to their lowest in over a year.

Jul 15 - Strategie Grains cuts all EU grain crop estimates
Consultancy Strategie Grains on Thursday cut all its forecasts for this year's grain crops in the European Union, as it fine-tuned wheat and barley estimates as harvest progresses in the bloc and pointing to dry weather threatening maize fields. The EU wheat crop was expected at 123.3 million tonnes, down from 124.4 million projected in June and below the revised 129.9 million tonnes harvested last year, it said in a monthly report.

Jul 14  - EU morning pre open comments (StoneX)
- you were to read the headlines rather than the bodiese of news reports on the negotiations regarding Ukraine exports you would be sure that grains were iminently going to flow unhindered from Ukraine. The truth is we are still some weeks away from that best case scenario and no doubt many bumps in the road to come.
- In either case, lets take March 23 Matif wheat and bring it back to dollar terms to account for the curency move. $310/tonne was the pre war highs and we are currently trading the equivalent of $330.
- If we take Feb. 23 rapeseed at $678/tonne, the pre war highs were $660 and then for Matif maize were had $280 highs pre war and are now $307/tonne.
- So a $20/tonne +/- premium over pre war levels seems modest. By contrast these markets are all $100/tonne off the highs. So much money and sentiment have left grains in that $100/tonne. Grain bears busy pedling charts comparing current Dec futures to 2008, it was not just a recession that forced grain prices lower back then but production recovered greatly too.
- Biodiesel margins for RME are stellar making rapeoil look cheap, crush margins are strong too, which makes rapeseed look cheap. SEA palmoil producers changing from trying to depress local prices to trying to inflate them again.

Jul 14 - Brazil 2022 soy sales lag reflecting stalled domestic market, weak Chinese demand
The sale of Brazil's 2022 soy crop reached 76.7% of the estimated output through July 8, according to a survey released by consultancy Datagro on Wednesday, lagging last year's pace and a five-year historical average. The data reflects a somewhat stalled market, with farmers waiting for prices to improve in the inter-harvest period, Datagro said.

Jul 14 - China 2022 summer wheat output rises 1% from last year - stats bureau
China's wheat for the summer harvest rose slightly from the previous year, the country's statistics bureau said on Thursday, following concerns after heavy autumn rains delayed planting for the winter harvest.  Summer wheat crop output in the world's top grower of the grain rose 1.0% to 135.76 million tonnes in 2022, the National Statistics Bureau said, while wheat planting acreage this summer increased 0.2% from last year.

Jul 13  - Europe Agri market Pre Open Comments ( StoneX )
- The WASDE reports initial reaction was pretty muted, then with nothing standout bullish the bids drifted and the thin, one-sided market did the rest. On CME wheat there half the volume of trades compared to the WASDE report of July 2020. For you and me wanting to place our 10-100lot orders thats OK, if you want to trade 1000 or 5000 lots like you did in the past the well of counterparts is a lot drier looking.
- Like I mentioned in the presentation we have to acknowledge the trading environment we are in and that environment at the moment is one of high degree of correlation across commodities, the tied is strong.
 - US mid-west weather arguably improving as the EU corn and sunseed crops go backwards. India at 100MMT of production is non runner.
- Rumours circulating the Indonesia will be further reducing their export taxes has vegoils easing further which is generally bullish on meal.
- The asset manager has thoughts of free flowing black sea grains, the physical traders dont see it like that. That said the tap is slowly openning.
- The euro continues to struggle.
- A lot of wheat traders in particular, especially with the broader international view of things see this most recent break in wheat prices being a gift to the consumer. One thing is true, for the consumer purchase prices are a healthy discount to where were a month ago.

Jul 13 - U.S. soy demand seen falling after price jump
Demand for U.S. soybeans is falling as bumper crops in South America eat into U.S. export prospects, the U.S. government said on Tuesday.
The large harvests in Brazil and Argentina also will cause U.S. processors to cut back on their expected pace of soy crushing as overseas buyers look for alternative suppliers to meet their soymeal needs, the U.S. Agriculture Department said on Tuesday.

Jul 13 - Brazil set to export corn to China before end of 2022, farmer group says
Brazil may start exporting corn to China before the end of this year, Cesario Ramalho, the head of institutional affairs at corn farmer group Abramilho, said on Tuesday. Ramalho, speaking at a news conference, said the timeline was provided by Agriculture Ministry officials, who are in talks with China about the acceptance of certain types of transgenic corn cultivated in the South American country.

Jul 13  - China cuts 21/22 edible oil outputs on lower oilseed imports (CASDE)

- China has reduced its forecast for edible vegetable oil production for the current marketing year as imports for oilseeds have declined, the monthly update to China’s Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (Casde) showed on Tuesday. The country is now expected to produce 28 million mt of edible oil during the 2021/22 crop year, down 150,000 mt from the previous 28.15 million mt estimates.
“(It is) mainly because edible oilseed imports dropped, leading to a downgrade in edible vegetable oil production,” the report said.

- However, “the obvious increase of domestic rapeseed production limits the decline of edible oil output,” it added. Chinese government analysts have maintained an unchanged estimate for edible oil imports of 7.43 million mt. Of the total, imports for palm oil and soyoil were cut by 300,000 mt and 170,000 mt from their previous outlooks to 3.7 million mt and 630,000 mt, respectively. Consumption of edible oil was expected to be stable at 36.34 million mt.

- Accordingly, the year-end balance between supply and demand for 2021/22 edible oil dropped 150,000 mt from the previous estimates to minus 1.18 million mt. For other essential agricultural products, estimates in the report remained unchanged for both the 2021/22 and 2022/23 marketing years. Estimates for corn production and imports for the 2022/23 marketing year were stable at 272.56 million mt and 18 million mt, respectively.
“Weather conditions in most corn-producing areas are better than last year, conducive to corn’s growth… It is expected that China’s corn yield will reach a record high, and the production will be stable or slightly increased from the previous year,” the report said.

- On the demand side, “high quality and the increased price of wheat will restrict its usage in animal feed, (so) feed consumption for corn is expected to remain at a high level”. Corn imports and production in the 2021/22 marketing year went unchanged at 20 million mt and 272.55 million mt.

- For soybeans, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) also kept its forecasts for imports and demand for the new crop year at 95.2 million mt and 19.48 million mt. Soybean consumption for 2022/23 remained at 112.87 million mt, leaving the year-end balance between supply and demand unchanged at 1.66 million mt.

Jul 12  - European Agri Market Pre Opening Comments (StoneX)
- The WASDE report today is today, even if you don’t trade options its worth noting that the implied volatility levels are up around 60% for most US grains markets. This is the markets way of saying it has no idea what the market is going to do but whatever it is it probably won't be orderly.
- The wheat market seems content to quickly weaken on any media driven rhetoric about the possibility of any export corridor yet reluctant to strengthen as yet more rockets rain down on the large vessel ports.
- There does however seem to be little by little improvements in exports out of the Danube but with a 4m draft its hard to imagine it is not just more scratching at edges.
- The market also seemed very open to discuss India when we were assuming 105MMT crop, now that its a 90MMT crop it is tumble weeds.
- I would mention crop condition rating in the US but statistically still outside the window of time where they are funtional measure of yield potential. One crop condition rating that is relevelent is the poor state of Argentine winter wheat crops, plenty of reports however that Brazil may produce a record 9MMT crop.
- The euro trading parity this morning, if you believe that it has more to go then you want your longs on Matif and shorts on CME. Especially the latter as you get the double benefit of a market pressured and the currency you are paid appreciating.

Jul 12  - Return of Ukraine's Snake Island boosts trans-shipment export options (AgriCensus)
- The recapture of a strategically significant island off the coast of the Black Sea port of Odesa by Ukrainian forces has enabled the restoration of transshipment activity in the region and could bring relief to hard-pressed logistics in and around the Sulina Canal. Russian forces evacuated Zmiiny Island, known across the world as Snake Island, last week and claiming they were returning it in order to improve grain flows from Ukrainian ports.

- The move means that transshipment - the action of transferring cargoes from one ship to another, typically larger, vessel at sea - through the Bystroe Canal has been restored, according to an official notice, forging another link between the Danube and the Black Sea. The move is expected to bring relief to very tight logistics in the river ports along the Danube and potentially help manage the huge queue that has formed in the Sulina Canal - another key link in Danube logistics that connect the river to the Black Sea.
“Taking into account the liberation of the Zmiiny Island from the Russian troops and the accumulation of a large number of ships in anticipation of passage through the Sulina channel, it is possible to use the channel of the Bystre mouth of the Danube-Black Sea channel for the entry/exit of ships transporting agricultural products”, the notice said.

- This channel was used prior to the war as an entrance to port of Reni - a small port that has taken on much greater significance since the Russian invasion began as it is now one of the few ports that is able to manage seaborne exports. But the facility has a limited draft of only around 3.8 meters, and as such it used to be used as a port entrance for empty vessels, but could not be used as an exit once the ship was loaded. That may hamper the use of the channel, trade sources told Agricensus.
"If someone can manage to dive to a draft of up to 4 m... then theoretically we could exit through Bystre, but this is only a river-sea boat, thus around 3,000 mt,” a broker said.

- As such, even if they are able to enter Reni through the Ukrainian side of the channel, vessels would still have to pass through the Sulina Canal to exit to the Black Sea. Ukrainian authorities also noted that the Bystroe Canal is under Ukrainian control, so does not require additional costs compared to Sulina Canal which is controlled by Romanian authorities. However, trade sources do expect that the extra waterway could alleviate freight rates, although there is little evidence of that as yet.

- UN humanitarian aid coordinator Martin Griffiths also commented on the news, saying that the agency was excited about the news, but it alone is “not enough to overcome the threat of world hunger. Only unblocking the Ukrainian Black Sea ports, which are currently blocked by the Russian army, is the best way to prevent global hunger,” the official notice on the Ukrainian agriculture ministry website noted.
That comes along with new rumors that appeared in the market last week, that a test grain vessel could possibly sail from Odesa port during the week within a corridor guaranteed by the United Nations. 

Jul 12 - Russia's July wheat exports seen modest amid logistics problems
Russian wheat exports are expected to remain muted in July despite lower export tax, a massive crop and a weakening rouble as problems with logistics and trade finance caused by Western sanctions persist. The world's largest wheat exporter is expected to have record amounts of the crop available to supply abroad in the July-June marketing season, and reduced grain export taxes sharply on July 1 to support shipments.

Jul 12 - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers welcome rain, say more sun needed
Heavy rain last week in Ivory Coast's cocoa-growing regions has spurred the growth of flowers but more sun is needed to help them develop into small cocoa pods, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is in its rainy season which runs from April to mid-November.

Jul 11  - Indonesia to implement B35 biodiesel from July 20 - official
Indonesia plans to increase the content of palm oil-based fuel in its biodiesel to 35%, known as B35, from 30%, starting on July 20, senior energy ministry official Dadan Kusdiana said late on Friday. The world's biggest palm oil producer is struggling to cut palm oil inventories after a three-week export ban ending in May aimed at controlling domestic cooking oil prices boosted stocks.

Jul 11  - South Korea’s FLC bought about 65,000 tonnes corn in private deal - traders
South Korea's Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased about 65,000 tonnes of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South America in a private deal earlier this week without an international tender being issued, European traders said on Friday. The corn was purchased at an estimated $321.29 a tonne c&f with an additional $1.75 a tonne surcharge for additional port unloading.

Jul 08  - European Agri Market pre open comments (StoneX)
- A broad commodity rally and analysts noting the strong correlations across the wider commodity base.
Stuff goes up, stuff goes down.
- Germany quickly facing into a winter with even higher energy costs that last winter.
- Farmers across Europe are pushing back against the suicidal farm to fork program the EU wants to roll out. - Without getting too political there is a leadership vacuum, for sure in the UK and arguably in a lot of major democracies. If you wanted to doubt the future prosperity of the global economy its easily doubted. On the other hand, people like to make money and the economy has a resiliance that can easily see sentiment change and that was part of yesterdays gains, we have to trade what is in front of us and that is a market high on sentiment and low in confidence.
- Fundamentals still matter and we will get boats getting over and under valued as they are dragged around by the tide.

Jul 08 - India extends export period for sugar mills to July 20
India has extended by two weeks a deadline for the export of 800,000 tonnes of sugar as annual monsoon rains make it tough for many producers to move stocks from factories to ports, the government said on Friday. Last month, the world's biggest producer of the sweetener gave its mills until July 5 to export the sugar, but some mills missed doing so because of heavy rains.

Jul 08 - Argentina's wheat-planting seen edging down due to bad weather
Argentina's wheat-planting area for the current 2022/2023 harvesting season is estimated at 6.2 million hectares (15.3 million acres), down from the 6.3 million hectares previously estimated, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday. The cut is the fourth made by the exchange since the season began in May, mainly due to unfavorable weather that has prevented many farmers from meeting their original planting targets.

Jul 08 - Ukraine to summon Turkey envoy after Russian grain ship sailed
Ukraine will summon Turkey's ambassador to seek clarification, its foreign ministry said on Thursday, a day after a Russian-flagged cargo ship suspected of carrying stolen Ukrainian grain left a Turkish port. The dispute comes at a time of record food prices globally, as conflict in Ukraine, the world's largest grain supplier, has fuelled concerns about food security.

Jul 08 - Egypt ramps up wheat purchases via direct deals as prices dip
Egypt's state grains buyer has ramped up direct purchases of imported wheat this week, buying without issuing international tenders and even closing a rare purchase of a German wheat cargo from Egypt’s own private sector. The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) has so far bought around 1.3 million tonnes of wheat in the new marketing year which began in July, amid a dip in global prices not witnessed since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February.

 

 

Jul 07  - Ukraine's harvest picks up pace with 1m mt of grain threshed (AgriCensus)

- Ukraine has started a large-scale harvesting campaign through the first week of the 2022/23 marketing year, government data covering the new marketing year has shown Thursday - although the first grains were threshed nearly a month ago in the southern regions of the country. As of July 7, harvesting was carried out on an area of 417,300 ha (3%) with an average yield of 2.6 t/ha, 1 million tons of grain of the new crop were threshed so far, agriculture ministry data released Thursday showed.

Wheat
- The wheat harvest has been complete on 147,300 ha from a total planted are of 4.9 million ha of land (3%), with an average yield of 2.4 mt/ha, meaning 355,820 mt has now been brought in from the fields.
- The EU monitoring service MARS predicts that wheat yields in Ukraine will fall to 4.11 t/ha amid poor weather conditions, compared to 4.53 t/ha in 2021 and slightly above the five-year average of 4.07 t/ha.
- And the wheat harvest is expected to slip by 16% from 2021 to 26.9 million mt this year.
- While, according to the USDA's expectations, the wheat harvest will decrease by 35% to 21.5 million mt compared to the previous season to 33 million mt.

Barley
- Barley harvesting campaign is now finished on 254,260 ha with yields of 2.8 mt/ha, leaving 717,760 mt now in the bin.
- For barley, the EU’s MARS has also projected a decrease in yields, pegging them at 3.3 mt/ha, down from last year’s 3.8 mt/ha, and equal to the five-year average of 3.3 mt/ha.
- The EU crop monitoring service expects the country to harvest 6.66 million mt of barley in 2022, down 29% from 9.44 million mt in 2021, and down by 20% from the five-year average of 8.32 million mt.
- The USDA expects that production will decrease by 42% to 5.70 million mt.

Rapeseed
- The rapeseed harvest is complete on 43,500 ha (4%) with yields of 1.5 mt/ha, and 67,310 mt was threshed.
- Rapeseed yields are EU’s MARS estimated to drop to 2.67 t/ha, down from 2021’s 2.94 mt/ha, but up from the five-year average of 2.63 mt/ha.
- And production is projected to be up 28% year-on-year at 3.7 million mt this year, which would be up 37 percent from the five-year average.
- The USDA expects that rapeseed production will inrease by 6% to 3.2 million mt.

Corn
- According to the EU’s MARS estimates, corn yields are to drop to 7.27 mt/ha, down from 2021’s 7.68 mt/ha, but up from the five-year average of 6.77 mt/ha.
- And total corn production is projected to be down 16% year-on-year at 35.3 million mt this year, which would be up 4.6 percent from the five-year average.
- The USDA estimates that corn production will be at 25 million mt for 2022/23, which is 40.6% lower than last year.

- This year Ukraine expects to harvest at least 50 million tons of grain, said First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky on July 6 at the local media. Given the circumstances and difficulties of the sowing and logistics base in wartime, it is expected that the harvest "will not be so bad - above the average for the last 5 years."
"At least 50 tons of grain, and maybe more. It depends on the corn harvest, the results of which we will see in October," said Vysotsky.

Jul 07  - European Agri Market morning Comments (StoneX)
- Overnights are a good deal stronger lead by wheat and beans. A lot of grains now being noted as back to pre-war levels. The disjoint between cash and futures has been a talking point but this fall in the futures does present the consumer with $100/tonne better buying level than a month ago and presumably signs that this wave of fund liquidation is over will get buying boots on.
- Ukraine’s grain traders association upping production ideas there to an overall 69.4MMT number versus 106MMT last year, down around 1/3.
- The Dericho storms in the US have caused some damage to crops, the extent is the question.
- Some strong palmoil production numbers continue to roll out of Indonesia and Malaysia and while they are improving we are still lagging peak output numbers seen in the past.
- Energy markets are now in full recession fear mode as German electricity prices soar to levels that are directly hurting Europe’s largest industrial economy.
- Farmers in Holland are in full strike mode and as Sri Lankans protest their government amidst fuel shortages they are begging Russia for oil.
- Rumours are that Egypt were given $2billion in liquidity to buy wheat from the EU. presumably that would be $2billion to not buy Russian wheat if true ...

Jul 07  - Ukraine’s government unveils $5b logistics plan for road, rail, ports (Agricensus)

- Ukraine’s minister for infrastructure has unveiled an integrated road, rail and port strategy alongside a plea for international investment in order to boost the country’s grains and oilseeds exports and counter the impact of the ongoing Russian invasion of the country. In details provided by the minister, Oleksandr Kubrakov, improvements to road, rail and border checkpoints would focus on building new connections towards the EU borders and down to the Danube ports – Ukraine’s last option for seaborne exports – and likely cost up to $5 billion.
“Now our budget is almost 100% focused on the needs of the military and social benefits. Obviously, in such conditions, state resources for the restoration and improvement of logistics are not enough,” Kubrakov said, in a call for private investment to help reshape Ukraine’s logistics landscape.

- The government is expecting work to be undertaken between 2022 through to 2025 and will add three new road checkpoints on the border with Hungary and Romania, alongside new and upgraded rail links. The rail connections alone are costed at $1.5 billion, with a comprehensive road improvement plan likely to weigh in at $2.7 billion.
“If Ukrainian business and the state receive the support of international partners, we will be able to expand the window for exports, imports, and humanitarian assistance. The economic security of not only Ukraine, but the whole world is under threat,” Kubrakov said.

- In conjunction with the EU, the package is expected to capitalise on an agreement with 12 EU countries on the free passage of trucks and should deliver two new rail routes into ports like Reni and Izmail in the extreme south of the country. With Russian naval forces dominating the Black Sea, and actively occupying some Ukrainian port capacity, the Danube and ports like Izmail have provided a vital lifeline to allow some volumes of supply to get out to meet export demand. However, with the capacity so sorely limited, the facilities have quickly become overwhelmed by the huge potential export demand leading to long queues and significant delays.

- The documents also provide figures for Ukraine’s current export capacity, with the main border checkpoints able to cope with 4,847 trucks per day, and 2,125 rail wagons, with negotiations underway to construct additional rail trans-shipment terminals on the border with the EU. For a further $200 million, works to dredge the Ukrainian ports along the Danube, construct an inland waterways fleet and boost trans-shipment capacity at Izmail, Reni and Ust’-Dunaysk.
“The goal is to increase the capacity of Danube ports by 1.7 times to 25 million mt per year,” an accompanying presentation said.

Jul 07  - World hunger rising as U.N. agencies warn of "looming catastrophe"
World hunger levels rose again last year after soaring in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with the Ukraine war and climate change threatening starvation and mass migration on an "unprecedented scale" this year, according to U.N. agencies. Up to 828 million people, or nearly 10% of the world's population, were affected by hunger last year, 46 million more than in 2020 and 150 million more than in 2019, agencies including the Food and Agriculture Organization, World Food Programme and World Health Organisation said in the 2022 edition of the U.N. food security and nutrition report.

Jul 07  - Russian grain ship leaves Turkish port - data
A Russian-flagged cargo ship, the Zhibek Zholy, which was suspected of carrying stolen Ukrainian grain, left the Turkish northwest port of Karasu late on Wednesday, Refinitiv ship tracking data showed. On Sunday, Ukraine's ambassador to Turkey said Turkish authorities had detained the ship. Reuters previously reported that Ukraine had asked Turkey to arrest the ship.

Jul 07  - South Korean mills buy 50,000 T U.S. wheat, 100,000 T Australian

A group of South Korean flour mills on Wednesday bought about 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States and 100,000 tonnes to be sourced from Australia, European traders said. The wheat was all bought on an FOB basis with a range of types purchased, they said.

Jul 06 - EU Agri market morning comments (StoneX)
- Not even the prospect for Dericho storms across the US midWest could arrest the declines as commodities were broadly and solidly sold off.
- Energy markets sellingoff, Citi say we are going to $65/barrel and JPM say we aregoing to $235/barrel (!)
- Wheat traders see a market where France are selling wheat like the EU will produce 10MMT more wheat than last year instead of 10MMT less.
- The worlds largest buyers are buying in volumes not seen in some time. Stats Canada could in part have stirred the bears into action with a larget than expected area that if yields perform can easily give Canada the chance of 10MMT extra production.
- The debate rages on Russia, the bears say set your morals to one side, their wheat is getting cheaper with adjustements to the export tax that ultimately lowers the duty barrier. The bulls say that farmers there are getting such a low Rouble price they wont be sellers, that buyer cannot be seen buying what could be Ukrainian wheat, vessels cannot be guaranteed to be allowed/insured to get to Russian ports, that payments are too messy and aside from that Russian sellers have been active defaulters of late so you cannot trust them.
- Vegoils got pounded as palmoil sucks the life out bulls ideas.
- The strong dollar/weak euro suggest at least an EU recession is coming as the German economy looks like
it is toast as it unties waves goodbye to cheap Russian gas.

Jul 06 - Indonesia raises palm oil export quota as farmers face 'emergency'
Indonesia has raised the palm oil export quota in a bid to cut soaring inventories of the edible oil, a Trade Ministry official said on Tuesday, as a council member in a plantation area warned farmers faced an "emergency" due to tumbling prices. The world's top palm oil producer has been forced to overhaul its policies after a three-week export ban that ended on May 23 caused a massive build-up of domestic stocks and angered farmers by sending prices of palm fruit lower.

Jul 06 - U.N.'s FAO receives $17 mln for Ukraine grain storage
The United Nations' food agency said it had received $17 million from Japan to address grain storage problems in Ukraine and increase its exports as global food prices remain near record levels amid war in the country. The funds would help Ukraine, the world's fourth largest grains exporter, store produce from the current July-August harvest in plastic sleeves and modular storage containers, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said.

Jul 05 - Malaysia end-June palm oil stocks hit 7-month high as exports drop
Malaysia's palm oil inventories at end-June likely climbed to their highest levels in seven months, as exports plunged following top producer Indonesia's return to the export market, a Reuters survey showed on Tuesday. Stockpiles in the world's second-largest producer are forecast to rise 12.3% from the prior month to 1.71 million tonnes, according to the median estimate of eight traders and analysts polled by Reuters.

Jul 05 - Italy declares state of emergency for drought-stricken north
Italy on Monday declared a state of emergency for areas surrounding the river Po, which accounts for roughly a third of the country's agricultural production and is suffering its worst drought for 70 years. The government decree will allow authorities to cut through red tape and take action immediately if they think it necessary, such as to impose water rationing for homes and businesses.

Jul 04  - China washes out five “expensive” US soybean cargoes (Agricensus)

- Chinese buyers cancelled at least five soybean cargoes sold from the US last week in a process known colloquially as a “wash out” as the country lacks price competitiveness, trade sources have told Agricensus Monday. Three August cargoes that had been booked out of Gulf ports and two out of the Pacific Northwest have been settled contractually rather than being physically lifted according to trade reports, with rumours that the volume could - at least partially - have been shifted to Brazil. The move came as US soybeans are way more expensive than their South American counterpart for nearby loadings.

- A broker based in Brazil said trading houses that process soybeans in the US and China have been replacing US for Brazilian beans considering the large discounts the latter has been trading under. According to Agricensus’ assessment, Brazilian beans are more competitive than those out of the US even for September shipment, which is uncommon considering seasonal factors as the US typically is into its harvest period then when prices are usually depressed by increasing supply.

- The USDA reported net reductions of 120,000 mt of soybean export sales on Thursday, with total 2021/22 commitments now at 60.1 million mt. Considering those figures and underlying trade dynamics backed by price arbitrage, further washouts or US volumes committed for 2021/22 loading spilling over into the upcoming marketing year cannot be ruled out. Even if the US does meet the soybean export estimate of 59.1 million mt set forth in the USDA supply and demand monthly report from early-July, this will represent a 1.1 million mt reduction compared to current accumulated commitments.

Jul 04 - Ukraine says Russian ship carrying Ukrainian grain detained by Turkey
Turkish customs authorities have detained a Russian cargo ship carrying grain which Ukraine says is stolen, Ukraine's ambassador to Turkey said on Sunday. Ukraine had previously asked Turkey to detain the Russian-flagged Zhibek Zholy cargo ship, according to an official and documents viewed by Reuters.

Jul 04 - Indonesia looks to raise palm oil export quota
Indonesia proposed raising palm oil export quotas on Friday and is considering increasing mandatory levels of biodiesel in fuel mixes to prop prices for farmers at a time when domestic palm oil inventories are high, a senior minister said on Saturday. Palm oil inventories ballooned and mills limited purchases of fresh fruit bunches (FFB) from farmers after Jakarta stopped exports of crude palm oil and some other derivatives for three weeks to May 23 in a bid to contain soaring domestic cooking oil prices.

Jul 01  - Steel harvest: Ukraine’s hardest marketing year delivers, but 2022/23 will be tougher (AgriCensus)

- Ukraine’s marketing year started with huge promise – a country revelling in expectations of record-breaking corn, wheat and barley crops and still supporting sizeable sunflower and oilseed output. As well, there were growing signs that international export markets would soak up more Ukrainian products than ever before amid record-breaking production, with economies around the world looking to power back after Covid lockdowns. But at the dawn of the 2022/23 wheat marketing year across the country, the very existence of the country’s agricultural sector is in doubt amid a devastating war that has in its most recent phase clearly targeted agriculture-based logistics, stocks, farms and even fields.

- All the promise evaporated on February 24 when Russian forces, using Belarus as a springboard, made a desperate lunge for Kyiv only to be repulsed and send both countries tumbling into an open-ended and hugely destructive conflict. It had all been so different when the regional wheat marketing year, which runs from July 1 through to June 30, had kicked off.  

- The May 2021 version of the USDA’s Wasde report heralded what promised to be a year that cemented Ukraine’s place on the international scene. It pegged corn production at 37.5 million mt from a total coarse grain production of 47.9 million mt, while forecasting wheat production at 29 million mt. For sunflower, the US agency was confidently expecting high prices to enable farmers to allow “a recovery of sunflowerseed production for Ukraine, Russia, and the EU.”
- The most recent version of the Wasde in June 2022 confirms the record-breaking performance - Ukraine’s 2021/22 corn production weighs in at an unprecedented 42.1 million mt, augmented by 10 million mt of barley – itself a 12-year high. Sunseed was pegged at 17.5 million mt, according to the USDA, a 6% increase on the previous record set just two seasons earlier and a huge 24% recovery on the previous year’s output. Wheat, at 33 million mt, was another record, surpassing the previous best of 30 million mt set in the year Ukraine achieved independence from the Soviet Union back in 1991.

Export powerhouse

- Much of the 2021/22 wheat crop was already in the ground when the initial USDA estimates came out in May 2021. Still, government data released Friday backs up the record-breaking size of the crop and its potent export potential. The country harvested a record grain crop and met the expectations of record exports - the pace set during the pre-war period was enough to carry it past previous highs. That meant it was possible to show a year-on-year increase in total grain exports this year compared to the 2020/21 marketing year.
- Wheat exports in 2021/22 totalled 18.74 million mt, 12.6% higher than 2020/21 but still 26% below the official estimate. But that means there are still at least 6.5 million mt of wheat left in stocks.
- For barley, the export target was exceeded - total exports reached 5.75 million mt, 36% higher than last year’s figures and also 5% above the ministry’s estimate.
- The marketing year for corn has not yet finished - there are two months still to go - but as of July 1 exports total 23.5 million mt, a 2% increase from the same period of last year.
- Alongside that, a gradual shift towards improving the quality of wheat has meant Ukraine was no longer relegated to playing a supporting role in the feed wheat market. Improving protein levels have moved the export dial and meant Ukraine is competing more and more into milling wheat markets.

- In 2021, GASC, TMO and Jordan’s MIT were among the tenderers that picked up 26 cargoes of Ukrainian milling wheat - they accounted for 1.3 million mt of product, according to data from the Agricensus Tender Dashboard. That represented a 53% increase in the number of milling wheat cargoes sold in the 2020 calendar year and a 46% increase in outright volume.
- That also came at a time when Russia’s pull was declining – 77 milling wheat positions were sold into tenders in 2020 naming Russian wheat as the origin, a figure that more than halved in 2021 to 34. Export taxes, quotas and rising prices complicated Russia’s export equation.
- Volumes also slumped to a still-sizeable 2.4 million mt, but this was well below the 4.5 million mt recorded in 2020, reflecting the effect of the sliding export tax.

Road to war
- In January 2022, Egypt’s GASC had again turned to the Black Sea for volume, booking seven positions of which Ukraine accounted for three cargoes, with Russia and Romania completing the line-up. The vessels were slated to load through March. Ukraine’s volumes, sold by Nibulon and Inerco basis Ochakiv and Chernomorsk, were a full $3/mt below Russian offers at that final tender.
- Whether the volumes ever loaded or were delivered is unknown. By March Ochakiv – just south of Mykolaiv – was virtually on the front line of the Russian invasion, while Odesa and neighbouring Chornomorsk hunkered down to await whatever bloody fate lay ahead.
- Attention will now turn to the outstanding marketing years of corn, sunflower, rapeseed and soybean while the new marketing year brings the diametrically opposite dynamic to its predecessor – a year clouded by uncertainty and facing profound challenges ahead.
- That there is a crop to speak of at all is testimony to farmers’ and government efforts to carry on.
- But, with stock levels rising, deep water ports still inaccessible, rail and road logistics fraught with challenges and financing an increasingly major problem, Ukraine’s new marketing year is set to be its toughest ever.

Jul 01  - French analyst Agritel sees Romania's 2022 wheat crop fall 16.5%
Soft wheat production in Romania is expected to fall to 9.31 million tonnes next season from last year's record of 11.15 million due to dry weather throughout the growth cycle, French consultancy Agritel said on Thursday. Romania is among the largest grain sellers in the European Union and an active exporter to the Middle East, mainly to Egypt.

Jul 01  - U.S. farmers boost corn plantings by more than expected
U.S. farmers planted more corn than they had initially planned to take advantage of strong prices for the grain, the government said on Thursday. U.S. soybean acreage was lower than the U.S. Agriculture Department's March outlook.

Jul 01  - First cargo ship leaves Ukraine's occupied port of Berdyansk  - official
A first cargo ship has left the Russian-occupied Ukrainian port of Berdyansk, a local official said on Thursday, after Russia said the port had been de-mined and was ready to resume grain shipments. "After a stoppage of several months the first cargo ship has left the Berdyansk port," Yevgeny Balitsky, a Russian-installed official in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, wrote on the Telegram messaging service.

Jul 01  - Argentina trucker strike ends, boosting grains exports
An Argentine truckers strike ended on Thursday, after some unions upset with diesel shortages reached a deal to lift the one-week protest around the major port of Rosario, which is expected to help the flow of grains for export going forward. The truck driver protest over high fuel prices has paralyzed corn and other grains exports just as the bulk of the harvest was headed to ports for shipment to foreign markets.

Jun 30 - Market Briefing: Dairy (IHSmarkit)

- Milk collections continue to run below year earlier levels in both Europe and US
- French wholesale butter price increases outpace consumer retail price rises
- Shipments of SMP and WMP to MENA reducing

Production
- Milk collections in GB are currently running 2% below year-earlier levels and are forecast to run below for the remainder of this season. How far below remains to be seen. Developments in feed costs, grass growth and slaughter cow prices will be key.
- Milk production in Northwestern Europe is likely to stagnate in the coming years, pressured by EU environmental regulations. Compared to 2021, in 2022 total EU milk production is forecast to be 434,000 tonnes lower, at 144.6 million tonnes, according to the latest USDA GAIN report.
- For the seventh consecutive month, US milk production fell short of year-ago volumes. Total milk output of 19.7 billion pounds in May was 0.7% below May 2021 levels, according to USDA’s Milk Production report released on June 21.

Demand
- German butter demand faces some challenges due to its very high price point, however, challenges in the veg-oil complex are continuing to support retail demand. The number of promotions has increased compared to a year ago. The Kempten German industrial price loss dropped €80, to €7,115/tonne. The retail wholesale price gained €50, to €7,355/tonne.
- Food price inflation in May reaches 10.1% in the US, 8.9% in the Eurozone. Eurozone sees higher inflation rates for wheat, fats and oils, commodities affected by the war in Ukraine. Central bank actions show early signs of tempering inflation in the US, but the global picture remains uncertain

Trade
- Exports of SMP and WMP to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) by the world’s largest dairy exporters have fallen during the first four months of 2022. Tight supply and high prices are likely to be playing a role. The EU is the largest supplier to the region. Shipments have dropped 14% year-on-year, to 157,100 tonnes for the first four months of 2022. This is over 25% less than had been recorded in the year immediately before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Prices
- Tight supply globally remains the largest supporting factor for European dairy prices. Looking at French consumer prices, prices for dairy products are up between 4% and 8% year-on-year. This is significantly slower than the rises recorded in dairy commodity prices.
- European SMP and WMP prices moved in a general downwards direction. French food quality SMP slipped to €4,016/tonne. In Germany, the feed SMP price slipped by €45, to €3,805/tonne. Food quality fell to €4,130/tonne. On the PZ Dutch exchange, both feed and food quality dropped €50, to €3,810/tonne and €3,960/tonne respectively.

Jun 30  - In Argentina, farm groups call for trade halt to protest government
Argentina's major farm groups called for a trade strike in two weeks in a bid to pressure the government to do more as frustration over crippling shortages of diesel and fertilizers weighs on the country's key agricultural sector. The groups announced on Wednesday that the nationwide halt to farm exports will begin on July 13 and last 24 hours, according to sector officials and a statement from the Mesa de Enlace which includes the country's four main rural associations.

Jun 30  - Sovecon ups forecast for Russia's 2022/23 wheat exports to new record high
The Russia-focused Sovecon agriculture consultancy said on Wednesday it had raised its forecast for Russia's July-June wheat exports by 300,000 tonnes to a new record high of 42.6 million tonnes. Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter supplying mainly the Middle East and Africa.

Jun 30  - Egypt's GASC buys 815,000 tonnes of wheat in tender
Egypt's state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), bought 815,000 tonnes of mainly French wheat in a tender, marking its biggest single purchase in years as prices slightly ease. The purchase comprised 350,000 tonnes of French wheat, 240,000 tonnes of Romanian wheat, 175,000 tonnes of Russian wheat and 50,000 tonnes of Bulgarian wheat, GASC said.

Jun 30  - South Korea’s MFG buys estimated 136,000 T corn in tender 
- traders
South Korea's Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has purchased an estimated 136,000 tonnes of animal feed corn all expected to be sourced from South America in an international tender which closed on Wednesday, European traders said. Two consignments each of 68,000 tonnes were both bought from trading house Olam both at an estimated $349.99 a tonne c&f plus a $1.75 a tonne surcharge for additional port unloading.

Jun 29  - Bunge denies plans to scale back in Russia, sell Russian subsidiary (AgriCensus)
- US agribusiness conglomerate Bunge has denied reports that it planned to scale back its operations in Russia and sell its subsidiary Bunge CIS, owner of one of the largest oil extraction plants in the Russian Federation.
“The company has done an internal restructuring but remains under Bunge ownership,” a Bunge spokesperson told Agricensus. “This was simply a restructuring of the corporate entity.”

- Earlier Wednesday, Russian news agency Interfax reported that Bunge was reducing its presence in Russia and selling Bunge CIS, citing sources in the Russian agricultural market. Bunge CIS, which is based in Moscow and operates mainly in the vegoils market in Russia, was founded in March 2004 and has about 850 employees. It operates the Kolodezyanskoe oil extraction plant in Voronezh region, which opened in 2008 and has a capacity to produce over 200 million bottles of sunflower oil a year. It also owns some of the most popular brands of Russian cooking oils, including Oleyna sunflower oil and Ideal olive oil.

- Bunge sold another Russian asset, the Rostov Grain Terminal in March 2021, with two former top managers of the Novorossiysk Grain Plant and United Grain Company, Marat Shaydaev and Alexey Chemerichko, buying the plant.

Jun 29  - EU Agri market pre open comments ( StoneX )
- Reports of a Russian trading company walking away from a deal made $130/tonne below current levels creates question marks over the trutworthyness of Russian suppliers. If nothing else it reminds traders that Russia may have a crop, they may have stolen Ukrainian grain but that does not guarantee a fluid, safe supply of exports from that origin.
- No such risk dealing with EU or US suppliers shifts demand ideas back to the EU/US balance sheets.
- The wheat-corn spreads has corrected greatly on the US exchanges as has the Matif-CMEwheat spread, the funds now have room to breath again if they wanted to build some longs on CME wheat.
- The Russia grain harvest commencing but hard to judge yields this early with the State numbers the ususal ambiguous bunker v dy uncertainty. Layer unto that what territorries they are now considering Russian.
- Corn reluctant to move greatly with the Brazilian export program kicking off early. Soymeal catching a bid as vegoils contract.
- Palmoil production numbers are positive and the main catalyst for weakening vegoil complex.

Jun 29  - India considers allowing some exports of raw sugar - source
India is considering allowing mills to ship out stocks of raw sugar that have piled up in ports and warehouses, trade and government sources said on Tuesday, weeks after it imposed curbs on overseas sale of the sweetener. Additional shipments from India, the world's biggest exporter of sugar after Brazil, could weigh on raw sugar futures, which are trading near their lowest in four months.

Jun 29  - Russia to change formula for calculating grain export taxes to support exports

Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, will change its formula for calculating grain and sunflower oil export taxes to support shipments amid a strong rouble currency, the economy ministry said on Tuesday. Russia has kept exporting grains but there have been problems with logistics and payments caused by the Western sanctions imposed on Moscow for its decision to send troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Jun 28  - Coconut prices are now at more favourable levels (IHSmarkit)

- Better crops and reduced demand
- Weakened coconut oil prices were also a bearish influence

- Prices of coconut products, such as desiccated coconut, became more favourable in recent months. This was noted by a trader in the coconut department at Rotterdam trader Catz International. The trader added: “Crops improved and demand has been somewhat lower. This also has been caused by the current situation in Ukraine. Also coconut oil prices moved considerably lower, but in the last weeks these seem to be hovering around the same levels.”

- The trader explained that the lower demand is mostly related to the situation in eastern Europe and Russia.
“The war is bringing a lot of uncertainty for companies producing for the eastern European/Russian market and therefore these companies are having a careful approach. Sanctions are making it difficult for Russian companies to import, so demand from there decreased considerably,” he added.

- Meanwhile several coconut producing facilities in origin announced they have temporarily stopped operations, since they state that at the current levels it is not beneficial to operate.
“In that respect it is questionable if there is room left for the market to move lower. Coconut crops tend to decrease later in the year and also the typhoon season in the Philippines will start, which always brings a lot of uncertainty,” the trader added.
- Catz International states that is the largest global trader of desiccated coconut.

Jun 29  - Poland says EU goal for Ukraine grain movement not feasible by July
The European Union's goal to move 20 million tons of grain out of Ukraine by the end of July is not feasible amid little progress in implementing EU and U.S. initiatives to ease logistics problems, the Polish agriculture minister said on Tuesday. Speaking to Reuters in an interview, Henryk Kowalczyk accused Brussels of giving Poland, which shares a long land border with Ukraine, little assistance, including with factors like a lack of equipment such as mobile grain loaders or containers.

Jun 29  - Jordan buys estimated 60,000 tonnes wheat in tender, traders say
Jordan's state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in a tender which closed on Tuesday, traders said. It was bought from trading house CHS at an estimated $445.00 a tonne c&f for shipment in the second half of September, they said.

Jun 29  - Russia switches export tax scheme from US dollar to ruble (AgriCensus)
- The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has announced it will revisit its export tax for wheat, grains, sunflower oils, and sunmeals, and abandon the US dollar in favor of the Russian ruble, according to an official statement on the ministry’s website has said late Tuesday. Citing “the influence of exchange rates on the amount of the export duty” the statement confirmed that the change in currency had been agreed upon. Although there is no explicit timeframe, it is expected to be implemented immediately, as the new marketing year starts on July 1.
“Recently, we have seen a trend towards a gradual increase in world prices for grains and oilseeds, and a simultaneous strengthening of the Russian ruble,” said Vladimir Ilyichev, Deputy Minister of Economic Development.
“Modernization of the damper mechanism for the export of agricultural products will help support our exports, while ensuring the stability of our domestic prices,” he said via the statement.

- The export scheme was imposed as Russian authorities looked to manage rampant domestic price inflation and address fears that the pull of international markets could leave Russia with too little wheat to meet its own domestic needs. The model has been revisited several times since its first introduction on February 15, 2020, but essentially increased the burden of tax as international prices rose, with the rate of the tax increase based on an underlying index price published by the Moscow Exchange (MOEX). Only last week, that underlying index price crossed the $400/mt level, triggering a change in the outright tax level.

- Agricensus also reported last week that Russia was contemplating a change to the scheme after the currency rallied on international markets.
“The formula for the tax was implemented when the exchange rate for the rouble was at around 70 ruble to the dollar, now it's 53 ruble to the dollar,” a Russian trader told Agricensus at the time. Traders suggested that a switch of payments into rubles was also being considered.

Jun 28  - U.S. Supreme Court again nixes Bayer challenge to weedkiller suits
The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday rejected another Bayer AG bid to dismiss litigation alleging that its Roundup weedkiller causes cancer as the German pharmaceutical and chemical giant tries to avoid potentially billions of dollars in damages. The justices turned away a Bayer appeal and left in place a lower court decision upholding an $87 million judgment awarded in a lawsuit in California to Alberta and Alva Pilliod, who were diagnosed with cancer after spraying Roundup for more than three decades. The Supreme Court on June 21 rejected a Bayer appeal in a different Roundup case.

Jun 28  - Argentina's Bioceres says GMO wheat gets OK from U.S. FDA
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration concluded a review of Argentine biotechnology firm Bioceres' genetically modified (GMO) wheat without further questions, a "key step" to commercializing it in the United States, the company said on Monday. While corn and soy crops used predominantly to feed livestock are commonly planted with GMO seeds, consumers have long opposed GMO wheat for human consumption.

Jun 28  - Saudi's SAGO buys 495,000 tonnes of wheat in tender for shipment Nov-Jan
Saudi Arabia's state grain buyer SAGO on Monday bought 495,000 tonnes of wheat in an international purchasing tender for shipment from November 2022 to January 2023. SAGO said the average price for the wheat purchased was $441.93 per tonne.

Jun 28  - Grain stocks in Aqaba unaffected by toxic gas leak in port - official
The grain stockpile in Jordan's Aqaba port is safe after a toxic gas leak there on Monday, state news agency Petra cited the general manager of Jordan Silos And Supply General Company as saying. Work is protectively halted on Monday and Tuesday in the port for further checks, the general manager, Imad Ali Al-Tarawneh, said, according to Petra.

Jun 27  - Other G7 countries block German, UK proposals for biofuels waivers: reports (AgriCensus)

- A proposal from Germany to temporarily reduce the volume of biofuels consumption in G7 countries has failed to gain traction at a summit of the grouping being held in Bavaria, according to media reports on Sunday, with the US and Canada said to be leading the opposition to the move. If a mooted waiver to biofuels use does indeed fail to get agreement at the G7 summit over the next couple of days, biofuels producers would breathe a sigh of relief following various stories in media late last week that Germany and the UK would push for a temporary relaxation of biofuels mandates.

- A June 26 report from the Reuters news agency quoted an unnamed source as saying that officials from the US and Canada were citing the spike in fossil fuel prices in the past few months as an argument why G7 countries should refrain from introducing a waiver from biofuels mandates. The same news agency reported a US official as saying that the issue was being negotiated by the Sherpas (government representatives who discuss which subjects should be on the high-level agenda at summits) and hadn't yet progressed to being an item for G7 leaders to chew over at the three-day meeting in the German Alps that ends on June 29.

- But in a statement published late Sunday by the UK Prime Minister's office, Boris Johnson had encouraged G7 leaders to look at their demands on the use of land and biofuel globally.
"The use of grain for biofuel is contributing to reduced availability and increased costs for human consumption. That is something the Prime Minister will be raising at the G7 today (Monday), the statement said.

- Reuters reported on June 23 that Germany and the UK would ask other G7 countries to consider reducing biofuels blending requirements in order to free up grains and vegetable oils amid fears of a global food crisis. Meanwhile, UK newspapers on June 24 reported comments from the country’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson that biofuels use should be moderated by 10% to free up the availability of grain for the world’s poorest countries.  The reports were a major talking point for biofuels producers as well as traders on Friday, EnergyCensus understands, although underlying prices for rapeseed-based biodiesel (RME), used cooking oil-based biodiesel (UCOME) and FAME biodiesel (a mixture of crop-based and waste-based feedstocks) all rose on the day but were down sharply compared with June 17.

Mercurial markets
-Biofuels prices have been in sharp retreat in June amid a major correction from record highs in prices of vegetable oils based on rapeseed, soybean and palm, although the knock-on effect on biofuels blending compliance credits (also known as renewable transport fuel certificates) hasn't always been in tandem amid thin liquidity and a general reluctance to 'lift' trades amid uncertainty about mandates at national level in Europe and economic turmoil.
- Meanwhile prices late last week showed that waste-based feedstocks such as used cooking oil underwent a major correction compared with seven days beforehand (down around $90/mt week-on-week to $1,800/mt in Thursday afternoon's trading window) amid expectations that demand for freight in Europe will be eroded by an increasingly likely economic downturn.

UK lobby responds
- In response to reports on June 23 that the UK PM would urge a 10% reduction in the G7’s biofuels consumption, the country’s main biofuels lobby the RTFA said in a statement that the country's Department for Transport has “no intention of curbing its ambition on renewable fuels, nor pulling back on E10 which was successfully and smoothly introduced in September 2021.” The lobby also pointed out the UK cap on crop-based biofuels has been set at a level that recognises the benefits of crop-based bioethanol and does not restrict UK production.  The UK’s crop cap was set at 3.83% for 2021 and decreases year-on-year from 2021 to reach 3% by 2026 and 2% by 2032.

- The lobby also pointed out that the country’s bioethanol industry is also the single largest producer of food-grade carbon dioxide and which is essential for food preservation and distribution.
“Lack of food-grade CO2 would trigger a food crisis in its own right,” the RTFA statement added.

Jun 27 - EU Agri Market Pre Open Comments ( StoneX )
- No great surprises in the CFTC fund position updates, the greatest outlier as usual is wheat where funds were short 20k contracts versus the 3k long guess.
- Russian rockets hitting Kiev over the weekend as Ukraine cedes ground to the Russian onslaught.
- Wheat tenders and demand ideas permeating the physical trade but technical and fund long liquidation dominate the futures market price action.
- US weather is pretty much benign but hints of heat building by the weekend.
US weather good enough to put pressure on corn where talk is focused on seasonal weakness into harvest.

 - Funds are struggling to maintain wheat longs with some of the Russian production numbers floating around, still the same debate however in terms of what this means for overall supply dynamics. Funds were expected short 20k contracts and came in long 3k
- Is the Russian wheat going to compete with EU wheat or not and how much additional deferred demand is spilling over from old crop. This "dip" ("dip" being an €87/tonne drop in prices from the highs) is a gift to the consumer no matter which argument you prefer. Its a chance to start your new crop (many haven’t). If we want the gift to keep giving then buy put options or put options in the background after you have your physical purchases concluded.
- Saudi are buying (495kt at the weekend), Egypt are buying (180kt of Indian).

Jun 27  - Food export bans, from India to Argentina, risk fueling inflation
It only took 24 hours last month for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government in India - the world's second-largest producer of wheat - to shelve its plans to "feed the world". In April, Modi had said publicly that the world's most populous democracy was ready to fill part of the gap left by Ukraine in global grains markets by increasing its wheat exports, following five consecutive record harvests. India traditionally exports only a modest amount of wheat, retaining most of its crop for domestic consumption.

Jun 27  - On Japan's farms, a weakening yen adds to slow-burning discontent
Japanese farmer Kiyoharu Hirao has started to add more rice to the mix he gives his cattle in order to stretch his money further as a plunging yen drives up the cost of imported corn used in animal feed. That makes him worried about the quality of his prized wagyu beef and, along with some other farmers facing similar hardship across the country, angry at the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) that once held an almost unshakable grip on rural Japan.

Jun 27  - Argentine truck protest enters third day, grain ports operational
Argentine truck unions extended a widespread protest over fuel price hikes and diesel shortages on Friday, but the dismantling of some road blockades meant that truck traffic and operations in the country's key Rosario grains ports returned to normal. The protests, which started Wednesday, coincide with the peak period of the harvest cycle in the South American country, which is the world's top exporter of processed soy oil and meal, the No. 2 for corn and an important wheat producer.

Jun 27  - Russia Defaults on Foreign Debt for First Time Since 1918 (Bloomberg)

- Russia defaulted on its foreign-currency sovereign debt for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors.  For months, the country found paths around the penalties imposed after the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. But at the end of the day on Sunday, the grace period on about $100 million of snared interest payments due May 27 expired, a deadline considered an event of default if missed.

- It’s a grim marker in the country’s rapid transformation into an economic, financial and political outcast. The nation’s eurobonds have traded at distressed levels since the start of March, the central bank’s foreign reserves remain frozen, and the biggest banks are severed from the global financial system. But given the damage already done to the economy and markets, the default is also mostly symbolic for now, and matters little to Russians dealing with double-digit inflation and the worst economic contraction in years.
Russian sovereign bonds have been trading at distressed levels since March

- Russia has pushed back against the default designation, saying it has the funds to cover any bills and has been forced into non-payment. As it tried to twist its way out, it announced last week that it would switch to servicing its $40 billion of outstanding sovereign debt in rubles, criticizing a “force-majeure” situation it said was artificially manufactured by the West.
“It’s a very, very rare thing, where a government that otherwise has the means is forced by an external government into default,” said Hassan Malik, senior sovereign analyst at Loomis Sayles & Company LP. “It’s going to be one of the big watershed defaults in history.”

- A formal declaration would usually come from ratings firms, but European sanctions led to them withdrawing ratings on Russian entities. According to the documents for the notes whose grace period expired Sunday, holders can call one themselves if owners of 25% of the outstanding bonds agree that an “Event of Default” has occurred.

Jun 24  - Ukraine's farmers face cash flow crisis ahead of winter planting (AgriCensus)

- Ukraine could face new challenges in its upcoming winter sowing campaign as high stocks, a shortage of storage together with tight and expensive logistics mean current domestic prices are already close to the cost of production before the harvest has even reached its active pace. That means the question of financing the next crop is increasingly a major concern, as farmers - who would normally use revenues from the previous production to finance next year's production - are already close to the point of working at a loss. While the main Black Sea ports are blocked and have been attacked by Russian missile strikes, export flows have been forced to switch to moving mostly by land, by trains and trucks, as well as through the river ports of Reni, Kiliya and Izmail.

- However, all those other forms are non-traditional for Ukraine and the situation has led to the formation of major bottlenecks on the country's borders with European neighbours. That also leads to a significant increase in logistic costs, which makes it impossible to keep Ukrainian grain and oilseeds prices at the same elevated level that the rest of the world's grains command, as the increased logistic costs need to be factored in if Ukrainian grains are to remain competitive enough to attract demand. All these factors combine to put extreme pressure on domestic prices and raises questions over the viability, desire and capacity of farmers to manage the further winter sowing campaign.
"Currently they offer to sell my barley for $160/mt on a DAP basis, while the production cost of this cargo was several dollars more expensive. In such conditions, how should I plan the next sowing campaign?" a farmer from the Mykolaiv region told Agricensus.

- Barter programs with producers and distributors of seeds, fertilizers and crop protection products also don't solve the current issues, but simply shift it from the farmer to the supplier as an intermediary.
"Production costs and logistics prices are rising, while prices for grains are falling on the local market. In such conditions, at least, I will be forced to use the cheapest possible agri solutions for the next sowing campaign... It goes without saying that will not improve the yield," a farmer from the Vinnytsia region said.

- That means farmers are likely to have to economise on use of crop protection products, seeds, fertilizers, and machinery ahead of the new season. The estimated costs for wheat production stand at around the $150-180/mt level, at around $130-180/mt for corn and around $155-175/mt for barley according to the trading sources, meaning any sale levels below that threshold are unsustainable for the farmer. Even those figures should be considered only as a ballpark idea, as the level of costs depend on a wide variety of many factors, such as yield level, input price, transport, salaries, storages, etc.

Domestic prices

- Currently, domestic prices have already been declining since before the Russian invasion started and have now moved to the point where corn purchasing bids are heard at around $195-200/mt basis the port of Reni port. However, prices are markedly lower in other Ukrainian regions that are further from the western borders with the EU or further from the shallow water ports and therefore have to factor in much higher transport costs.

- The domestic price for the barley has even been rumored to be as low as around $70/mt in some Ukrainian regions, versus levels still heard at around $115/mt in the port of Reni, while the 11.5% wheat domestic price was heard at around $205/mt in Reni. And that’s at a time when the harvest is not yet at an active point - before harvest pressure lands and likely depresses prices even further.

- Alongside that, with the recent massive drop on world markets, Ukrainian prices will be under additional pressure as well, as logistic costs are not expected to drop while Ukrainian grains delivered to EU ports still have to be competitive.
“The risk for bankruptcy for farmers is now really big. For example, our farmers started the harvest of barley and the average yield is about 2.5 mt/ha, while the price on EXW for the moment is about $100/mt because logistics now cost 2-3 times more expensive than the price of grain,” Mykolay Gorbachov, president of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA), said during the Fastmarkets Grains and Oilseeds MENA event held in Cairo earlier this week.
“For example, delivery of the grain from the central part of Ukraine to Constanta will cost about $150/mt,” Gorbachov continued.

- He and all the trade sources that have been asked by Agricensus said that the only possible way to “give air” to farmers and potentially secure the coming winter planting would be to find some way to open the deep-sea ports of Ukraine. Ukraine is among the key grain, oilseeds, and processed goods producers and exporters of the world – covering the import needs of a huge list of countries, with China, Egypt, EU, Turkey, and India among the biggest buyers of Ukrainian produce. As such, it is vitally important to find a solution to find ways to secure the country’s production and export surplus and thus to make sure the next crop will be planted.

- Even with the Russian invasion, the USDA is forecasting Ukrainian wheat production of 21.5 million mt, 25 million mt of corn, 5.7 million mt of barley among grains. For oilseeds, the USDA expects 9.5 million mt of sunseed, 3.2 million mt of rapeseed and 2.8 million mt of soybeans, all of which would be at risk in the 2023/24 season.

Jun 24  - EU agri market pre open comments (StoneX)
- Officials from some G7 countries, including Germany and Britain, will push for temporary waivers on biofuels mandates to combat soaring food prices when leaders from the group of wealthy nations meet on Sunday, three people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
-The food crisis caused by the war in Ukraine has sparked a food versus biofuel debate, with some policymakers calling for an easing of mandates for blending biofuels into petrol and diesel to increase the supply of global grain and vegetable oil.
"We're quite keen to look at the issue of biofuel mandates to ensure that crops are prioritised for food consumption and not necessarily for use in fuels," a British government official told Reuters.
- It's not clear whether there's broad-based support to temporarily waive biofuel mandates across the G7 members which include Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Britain and the world's largest biofuel producer, the United States. Surging oil and gas prices have also increased the demand for energy sourced from crops.
"The issue of biofuel mandates is at a preliminary stage of discussion at the working level," said a spokesman for Canada's agriculture ministry.
- The group begin a three-day meeting in Bavaria, Germany, on Sunday and food security is expected to be on the agenda, after the presidency launched a Global Alliance for Food Security in May to tackle hunger.

Jun 24  - Humble rice bran becomes hot commodity as India scours for edible oils
Rice bran has become a sought-after commodity in India as the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils tries to overcome an edible oil shortage caused by global supply disruptions. A by-product in rice milling, rice bran has been traditionally used for cattle and poultry feed. In recent years, oil mills have started extracting rice oil, which is popular among health-conscious consumers but historically more expensive than rival oils.

Jun 24  - Russia may switch grain, sunseed export tax to roubles, agency says
Russia may gradually switch state export taxes for grains and sunflower seeds to the rouble currency from the U.S. dollar, the Interfax news agency reported on Thursday, citing a source in one of the ministries involved in discussing the change. Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter and a major supplier of sunflower seeds, is facing a raft of U.S. and European sanctions as a result of Moscow's decision to send troops into Ukraine.

Jun 24  - Boris Johnson signals UK's willingness to demine, help export grain from Ukraine
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Thursday Britain was willing to assist with demining operations off Ukraine's southern coast and was considering offering insurance to ships to move millions of tonnes of grain stuck in the country. Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine and blockade of its Black Sea ports has prevented the country, traditionally one of the world's top food producers, from exporting much of the more than 20 million tonnes of grain stored in its silos.

Jun 24  - Turkey says it is investigating claims of Russia shipping stolen Ukrainian grain
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Thursday that Ankara was investigating claims that Ukrainian grain has been stolen by Russia and shipped to countries including Turkey, but added the probes had not found any stolen shipments so far. Kyiv's ambassador to Ankara said in early June that Turkish buyers were among those receiving grain that Russia had stolen from Ukraine, adding he had sought Turkey's help to identify and capture individuals responsible for the alleged shipments.

Jan 23  - Ukraine's crushers forced to incinerate sunmeal amid high stocks, poor demand (AgriCensus)
- Ukrainian crushers will be forced to dispose of sunflower meal to avoid processing shutdowns due to the overstocking of storage facilities as sunflower meal prices hit a three-year low, market sources have told Agricensus Thursday. At least two sunflower meal producers, who declined to comment officially, report they are having to clear sunflower meal stocks through incineration. Some trade sources working with crushers believe the option is inevitable in the short term, given the decline in sunflower meal prices, logistics difficulties, and hot weather.

- Combustion of sunflower meal, in specialist boilers, allows the feed to be used as an alternative energy source to create electricity, steam, and heat - but this can only be achieved in the right equipment. However, the lack of enough specialist equipment and the scale of the stocks suggests sunmeal in most cases is likely to be incinerated without obtaining alternative energy sources.

- Meanwhile, the lack of proper storage conditions, coupled with hot weather, could also lead to fires in the product and storage areas, a situation that would be particularly unacceptable in war conditions. The blocking of ports as a result of the Russian military invasion of Ukraine and the backdrop of a decrease in demand for sunmeal from buyers, has led to a drop in the export performance of sunmeal and overstocking of storage facilities within Ukraine.

- According to market sources, selling prices for sunflower meal have decreased by more than 75% since March and are now heard at around UAH700/mt ($20/mt) to UAH2,500/mt ($71/mt), which is the lowest value for at least the last three years. According to the state customs statistics of Ukraine, since the beginning of the season on June 19, about 2.8 million tons of sunflower meal have been exported, which is 26% lower than the export figure for the 2020/21 season.

- According to USDA estimates, sunflower meal exports in the 2021/22 season are estimated at around 3.2 million tons, which is 27% lower than last season.

Jun 23  - EU pre open agri market comments (StoneX)
- Overnights getting another wave of pressure. Talks about talks to resume grain exports from Ukraine by Turkey and UK and EU and Word Bank and UN and…...the only two people not talking constructively about it are Putin and Zelensky.
- Meanwhile Putin strikes port infrastructure again.See shipping news.
- Widespread rains are expected across the mid-West in the 8-14 forecasts in benign temperatures. That gets is into July in not bad condition if condition ratings are to be believed. Much of France and Germany to get rain along with much of the British isles which can help final grain fill as long as the crops have not matured enough.
- There is a chance many of the crops have matured beyond great help if the early harvests for winter barley and rapeseed are anything to go by.  Just need to watch that rains don’t deteriorate quality.
- Rapeseed cannot catch a bid as the Cargil plant closes and Ukrainian oilseeds filter across the border.
- Russia expecting a huge wheat crop, the debate is if/how/when they will get that wheat to the export market. The current movements in wheat prices suggest that many assume that if they cannot convince the world through war or politics they will convince them with price. But then the Russian farmer is getting a terrible price.
- EU farmers getting nervous and getting some sales on the books.

Jun 23  - Bangladesh tries to secure wheat from Russia as India stops exports - sources
Bangladesh is trying to secure wheat supplies from Russia in a government-to-government deal after it's biggest supplier India banned exports of the grain last month to contain local prices, government and trade officials told Reuters on Wednesday. The supply deal with Russia, the world's biggest wheat exporter, could help Dhaka in meeting its needs below the elevated global prices, industry officials said.

Jun 23  - Ukraine conflict hurting palm oil supplies, says Ahold Delhaize CEO
Sustainable palm oil is becoming harder to find as food manufacturers use it to replace sunflower oil sourced from Ukraine and to meet environmental goals, Ahold Delhaize's CEO told Reuters. Palm oil, whose production is known for devastating rainforests in Indonesia and Malaysia, has for decades been a public relations problem for the retail and consumer goods industry. Several companies, from Pepsico to Unilever and P&G, have tried to distance themselves from shopper backlash, setting ambitious goals to make their palm oil supply chains sustainable.

Jun 23  - Strong rouble, lack of vessels to hamper start of new export season for Russian wheat
A strong rouble, high export tax, ongoing problems with freight and lack of forward sales are expected to hamper the start of the new export season for Russian wheat in July despite an expected record crop, analysts and traders said. Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter and which supplies mainly to the Middle East and Africa, will start harvesting the new crop within days and amid Western sanctions imposed on Moscow after it sent thousands of troops to Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Jun 23  - Russia, Turkey to pursue talks on Ukraine grain exports
Russia and Turkey agreed to pursue talks on a potential safe sea corridor in the Black Sea to export grain from Ukraine after discussions in Moscow, the Russian and Turkish defence ministries said on Wednesday. In a statement, Turkey's defence ministry said a Turkish dry cargo vessel, the Azov Concord, had also safely left Mariupol as a result of the talks, and added the ship was the first foreign ship to leave the port since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Jun 22  - Ukraine's Mykolaiv port and infrastructure hit again in Russian attack (AgriCensus)
- Ukraine's second biggest port of Mykolaiv has again come under missile attack on Wednesday, with at least two grain and vegetable oil terminals hit by missiles, according to local sources. The vegoil terminal Everi, owned by Viterra, was said to be on fire following the attack, which was believed to have followed a Russian missile strike.  Some local sources have said that around 70,000 mt of oil could have been stored in the terminal at the time of the attack, but Agricensus has not been able to confirm those details.

Viterra acquired the facility in September 2020.
- Another site that was said to have been affected was Greentour grain terminal, owned by Bunge, but it was not clear whether any damage had been sustained or how substantial it may be. Agricensus has contacted both companies, but no official comment on that was received from Viterra at the time of reporting.

- While Bunge confirmed the attack, saying no employees were injured as the plant has been closed since February 24.
"Bunge’s facility in Mykolaiv was hit during the latest Russian attacks in the area. A city rescue brigade is on site for damage assistance and control. A more thorough inspection is required to assess the exact impact on the facility. We are in contact and cooperating with appropriate local authorities," the official statement said.

- Meanwhile, the spokesman of Viterra confirmed the fire at the Everi terminal, according to reports from news agency Reuters. This it not the first time Mykolaiv port has come under missile attacks since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, with an earlier strike already affecting Bunge’s terminal along with the Nika-Tera and Olvia terminals. Reports also suggest that the region near Ochakov port and city have also come under shelling in recent days.

- Mykolaiv port is also the second biggest among Ukrainian ports in terms of grain and oilseeds exports, accounting for around 28% of all grains, oilseeds and meals exported from July 1 to February 22, prior to the Russian invasion. It also comes just after the media have been reporting that the meeting between Ukraine, Turkey, Russia and the UN has been agreed for the next week regarding the re-opening of Ukrainian deep-sea ports for export.  Mykolaiv region borders the Kherson region, which is currently under Russian forces' control and as such the region has been under attack for most all the time over the last few months. The fighting has caused damage not only to civilian buildings and people but also grain fields and infrastructure in what is increasingly looking like a concerted attempt to target grain facilities. Earlier, Russia took over control of the Kherson region and parts of Donetsk, meaning the country has now seized control of the shallow water ports located there.

- Russian authorities in the occupied ports now claim the waters have been cleaned of mines and the ports are now ready to export grains from the occupied regions.

Jun 22  - Bullish Indian sesame prices due to combination of low crop and robust domestic demand (IHSmarkit)

- $100/tonne increase in fob prices
- Processors worried about supply shortage

- Indian fob sesame prices have grown by $100 between the second fortnight of June and May once farmers started to confirm a record-low crop due to the combination of heatwaves and a water shortage, according to the Indian processor M. Lakhamsi Industries in its latest market update. India’s 2022 summer crop was expected to reach around 150,000-175,000 tonnes, according to the initial projection and most players are downgrading it to 100,000-125,000 tonnes.

- As a result, processors have decided to secure stocks to avoid supply shortage before the winter crop. In addition, many traders whose stocks were busy with “coriander, wheat, cumin, etc. Have managed to achieve more funds to increase warehouse capacity for sesame seeds,” founding partner of M. Lakhamsi, Sanjiv Sawla, explained.

M. Lakhamsi quoted the following fob (Mundra) prices:

Jun 22  - U.S. Supreme Court rejects Bayer bid to nix Roundup weedkiller suits
The U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday rejected Bayer AG's bid to dismiss legal claims by customers who contend its Roundup weedkiller causes cancer as the German company seeks to avoid potentially billions of dollars in damages. The justices turned away a Bayer appeal and left in place a lower court decision that upheld $25 million in damages awarded to California resident Edwin Hardeman, a Roundup user who blamed his cancer on the pharmaceutical and chemical giant's glyphosate-based weedkillers.

Jun 22  - Sovecon raises forecast for Russia's wheat crop
Russia-focused agriculture consultancy Sovecon said on Tuesday that it had raised its forecast for Russia's 2022 wheat crop by 0.6 million tonnes to a new record high of 89.2 million tonnes amid an improved outlook for the spring wheat harvest. Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter supplying it to the Middle East and Africa. Its farmers are expected to start harvesting the new wheat crop in coming days.

Jun 22  - Turkish team to discuss Black Sea grain corridor in Russia this week  - sources
Ankara's military delegation will travel to Russia this week to discuss details of a possible safe sea corridor in the Black Sea to export Ukrainian grain, Turkish presidency sources said on Tuesday.  Russia's TASS agency confirmed plans for the talks, citing Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

Jun 22  - Algeria starts buying milling wheat in tender 
- traders
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has started buying optional-origin milling wheat in an international tender which closed on Tuesday with initial purchases estimated around $445 a tonne c&f, European traders said in first assessments. Estimates of tonnes bought were still awaited but one trading house estimated about 400,000 tonnes would be bought.

Jun 21  - Canada’s farmers migrate to grains at the expense of canola: Ministry (AgriCensus)

- A June report from Agriculture and Agri Food Canada (AAFC) has shown that the field crop area in the August 2022 to July 2023 season will see an expansion in wheat and durum, rising by 6% and 13% respectively, while the canola area is expected to fall by 7% following last summer’s drought.
“The outlook for the world’s grain markets continues to be uncertain on a combination of strong demand and tight supplies, highlighted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine which has disrupted Black Sea production and global trade patterns,” the report said.

- Crop prices in 2022/23 are expected to ease slightly from current levels but are likely to remain strong as a forecasted return to normal production is coupled with rising world demand, the ministry said. Wheat output in 2022/23 (excl. durum) is pegged at 27.4 million mt, up 44% on 2021/22, with the area expected to rise 6% from last season to 7.68 million has, while a return to normal yields is expected. Uncertainty remains for wheat yields however, due to both cold and wet weather and persistent dryness across Alberta and some regions of Saskatchewan.

- Exports are forecast to rebound to 17.8 million mt, up 42% on the season, due to greater availability and increased demand from Africa and Asia.

- For durum wheat, output in 2022/23 is forecast at 5.68 million mt, more than double the prior season's output, owing to a 13% increase in area at 2.52 million has, while exports are pegged at 4.4 million mt - a jump of 91% from the previous season.  
- Wheat plantings are almost complete, and attention has now moved to weather conditions as rainfall is needed to fill soil moisture deficits.
- For canola, production is forecast at 17.9 million mt - the eight largest on record if achieved - as a return to normal yields is expected to offset a 7% decline in the planted area, which is estimated at 8.5 million has. Canola exports are expected at 8.8 million mt, up 71% on the prior season - a volume that was unchanged from previous ministry estimates.

- A period of dry weather is needed to help with canola planting progress and crop development, which is running three to four weeks behind in the some parts of the eastern Prairies.

Jun 21  - EU morning comments ( StonesX )
- The odd thing about harvest pressure this season is that despite what I would consider a deteriorating production outlooks, for wheat at least, we are seeing price weakness. We have to be careful about calling this harvest pressure or price pressure that is occuring at harvest.
- Had a nice dinner/chat last night with very large commercial consumer and prop trader. The consumers (generally rather then specifically) basic premise is that they are covered to new crop and comfortable to wait until deeper into new crop to start meangfull covering and the prop traders standout comment I went home with was that "you dont fight the fed". This statement in the context that the fed has a central goal right now and that is to control inflation and if that is at the further expense of stock market valuations, so be it. More importantly to us, if that is at the expense of (record low) unemployment, then also so be it. The premise being that Fed. interest rates will rise as far as they need to in order to cool the economy and reset the inflation pillar first. Then presumably get the printing presses going again down the tracks.
- Indian wheat production I am pegging at 90-95MMT with a neutral to lower bias.
- France I would peg at 31-32MMT.
Thats collectively around 15MMT less than where we thought a month ago.
- Rapeseed under pressure from most angles at present.

Jun 21  - Heatwave hit to France's cereal crops should be limited  - ag minister
The impact of a heatwave on cereal crops in France, the European Union's biggest grain producer, should be limited and was not a cause for alarm, the country's agriculture minister said on Monday. "For cereals, probably a bit but not that much because we're already late in the season," Marc Fesneau told France Info radio when asked about a possible hit to yields from the heatwave.

Jun 21  - EU split over fertiliser plants in poorer nations as food crisis bites
The European Union is divided on how to help poorer nations fight a growing food crisis and address shortages of fertilisers caused by the war in Ukraine, with some fearing a plan to invest in plants in Africa would clash with EU green goals. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has prompted a global food crisis and fears of worse to come because of a drop in grain exports from Ukraine and a spike in prices of chemical fertilisers, of which Russia and Belarus are major producers.

Jun 21  - EU's top diplomat calls Russia's blockade of Ukrainian grain a war crime
Russia is committing a war crime by blocking the export of millions of tonnes of Ukrainian grain, the European Union's foreign policy chief said on Monday as EU foreign ministers met to discuss ways to free up the crop amid a global food crisis. Ukraine is one of the top wheat suppliers globally, but its shipments have stalled and more than 20 million tonnes of grain have been trapped in silos since Russia invaded the country in February and subsequently blocked its ports.

Jun 20  - EU crops yield reduced amid ongoing drought conditions: MARS

- The EU’s crop monitoring service has reduced its expectations for the bloc's 2022 winter crop for a third consecutive month, amid drier-than-usual conditions across large parts of the continent. The June report published by Monitoring Agriculture Resources (MARS) showed that hot temperatures continued to have an adverse impact across the regions key growing regions. At an EU level, 2022 yield forecasts for soft wheat, durum wheat and winter barley are now sitting just below the 5-year average.

- The forecast for rapeseed, corn, and sunflowers and were also reduced but remain largely at the historical average, while the outlook for soybean and spring barley output remains essentially unchanged.
- The strongest downward revision, by almost 5% at EU level, was for durum wheat in southern Europe.
- Soft wheat was revised downward in 13 of the 25 EU wheat producing countries, most importantly in Hungary, Romania, Poland and France.

- Drought conditions in the southern and western parts of France during May reduced the yield outlook of winter cereals. The winter cereal development accelerated in May due to the warm temperatures, and the heading stage is now finished across the country. According to the report, high temperatures combined with the significant water deficit were strongly unfavourable and primarily affected the southern and western regions where the crops were most advanced. Precipitation in early June arrived too late to preserve the yield potential in these regions.
- Along with this, in the Baltic Sea region, crops were negatively affected by persistently colder-than-usual weather.

Jun 20  - China's May corn imports from Ukraine plunge amid Russian invasion
China's corn imports from Ukraine in May plunged compared with a year ago, customs data showed on Monday, after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine cut shipments. China, the world's top importer of corn, brought in 126,727 tonnes of the yellow grain from Ukraine, down sharply from 1.26 million tonnes a year ago, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. China imported 695,585 tonnes of corn from Ukraine in April.

Jun 20  - India likely to impose ceiling on next season's sugar exports - sources
India is likely to impose a ceiling on sugar exports for a second straight year starting this October, aiming to ensure ample domestic supplies and keep a lid on local prices, industry and government sources said on Friday. India, the world's biggest sugar producer, could cap exports of the sweetener at 6 million to 7 million tonnes in the 2022/23 October-September season, about one-third less than the total to be shipped out in the current season, industry and government sources said. They asked not to be named as they were not authorised to speak to media.

Jun 20  - France's Macron sceptical on Russia Odesa grain deal, sees Romania option
France's president said on Friday he saw little chance of an agreement with Russia for now to get grain out the Ukrainian port of Odesa, but said there were talks to regenerate rail routes linking Odesa to the Danube in Romania as an alternative. Ukraine's inability to use its major deep-sea port, Odesa, because of Russia's military incursion has led to a jump in global food prices and warnings by the United Nations of hunger in poorer countries that rely heavily on imported grain.

Jun 17  - Russia says it is assisting exports of Ukrainian foodstuffs via Azov Sea
Russia said on Thursday it was facilitating the export of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine through Russian-held transit points on the Azov Sea, without explaining who was providing the foodstuffs for export. Ukraine, like Russia one of the world's biggest exporters of grains and oilseeds, has accused Russia of stealing grain from territories in Ukraine that its forces have seized.

Jun 17  - Romania expects surplus grain crops this year, to keep exports going - Reuters News
Weather and higher production costs mean Romania's grain crops will be somewhat lower than last year's bumper harvest, but still ensure enough surplus for exports, Agriculture Minister Adrian Chesnoiu said. Romania has been among the largest grain sellers in the European Union and is an active exporter to the Middle East, with Egypt the main buyer.

Jun 16  - US biofuel group praises passage of bill allowing year-round E15 use (AgriCensus)

- A US biofuel group has welcomed the passage by the House of Representatives of a bill that will allow E15 gasoline - gasoline that uses a 15 percent ethanol blend - to be sold all year round in a move that seems to permanently end attempts at reimposing a seasonal summer break on the sale of the grade. The bill will also fund additional infrastructure to support the sale of higher blend biofuels.

- The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) welcomed the passing of the Lower Food and Fuel Costs Act that will extend a waiver allowing the sale of the E15 blend during the summer months, and also the inclusion of $200 million in additional funding for higher blends infrastructure.
“By expanding the availability of cleaner, more-affordable ethanol blends, this legislation will help deliver immediate economic relief to American families who are feeling unprecedented pain at the pump,” RFA President and CEO, Geoff Cooper, said in a press release.

- Extending the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) waiver that currently applies to E10 during the summer months to E15 is expected to boost ethanol demand. On April 29, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued an emergency waiver allowing the sale of E15 gasoline during the summer driving season this year.

- Cooper said that the use of E15 is approved for use in more than 97 percent of cars and trucks on the road today, and added that “investment in updated dispensers, tanks, pumps, and components that carry E15 and higher blends” will bring benefit to more consumers.

Jun 16  - EU agri pre open market comments ( StoneX )
- The US Nopa crush report again showed the US are crushing beans like never before. This increased soybean disapearances domestically and leaves less for export, it also increases the product supplies.
- The vegoil market still struggling to decide what it wants to do, there are increasing supplies of palmoil from Indonesia and hints of unvertain biodiesel diesel demand.
- On the other hand, we have place like Argentina increasing biodiesel demand and the US is experiance a prety severe period of high temperatures and limited moisture to threaten the soybean crop there.
- Rapeseed harvest results in France are very mixed, from the OK to the terrible. They should improve as we head North.
- The interest rate increases by the Fed. still lag the inflation rate and as is customary the Fed. moving before the ECB to send the euro down to below 1.04 and a step closer to parity.

- The desperation of politicians becoming tangible now and while there is some sense to trying to build silo capacity on the Polish side of the Poland/Ukraine boarder its not a solution, the silo's are still the wrong side of a very small hole to fill them. Storage is going to a huge issue for Ukraine. Silo bag suppliers are booked out for 3months and if we are going down the silo bag route we should expect a lot of feed grains at the expense of milling.

Jun 16 - Turkey says Ukraine grain ships could avoid mines, Russia offers safe passage
Russia on Wednesday said it has offered "safe passage" for Ukraine grain shipments from Black Sea ports but is not responsible for establishing the corridors and Turkey suggested that ships could be guided around sea mines. Ukrainian grain shipments have stalled since Russia's invasion and ports blockade, stoking global prices for grains, cooking oils, fuel and fertilizer. The United Nations is trying to broker a deal to resume Ukraine exports and Russian food and fertilizer exports, which Moscow says are harmed by sanctions.

Jun 16 - France set for rare barley shipment to Iran
A vessel is due to call this week at the port of La Pallice on France's west coast to load barley for Iran, in a rare French grain shipment to the Middle Eastern country, Refinitiv data showed on Wednesday. The ship will take around 63,000 tonnes of barley in what would be the first French barley export to Iran in almost three years, according to the data.

Jun 16 - Russian wheat retains lead as Egypt trims wheat imports

Egypt's imports of Russian wheat rose 84% in March-May from the same period last year, freight data showed, even though traders said there were some complications around payment and shipping. Egypt, one of the world's top wheat importers, has become heavily reliant on Russian and Ukrainian grain in recent years.

Jun 15 - Iran back for French barley supply amid growing demand (AgriCensus)

- Iran has booked at least two cargoes of French barley, with one of the cargoes already being nominated for loading from La Pallice, which would be the first export to Iran from France since July 2019 when 132,000 mt were exported. According to La Pallice port data, a vessel called Lolcos Confidence with 63,000 mt of barley is currently loading and will be delivered to BIK port, and trade sources said there are more to come.
“Looks like a lot of hopes were put on China. As they have not come, the book is redirected to Iran. Remember Ukraine is not there. So yes, this year I believe Iran will be a key buyer. The market says 3-4 parcels will load in France and same from EU Black Sea,” a trader said.

- It also comes as Iran is short on reserves, according to market sources, and needs to import more feed grains, with barley imports estimated to reach 2-3 million mt. French barley remains almost the only origin that can supply China apart from Russia and Canada, as another traditional supplier, Ukraine, will not be able to supply the usual volumes due to the ongoing war in the country. Chinese demand has not been significant so far, however.
“Forget China for the moment, they buy sorghum $400/mt, clearly not in the game,” a trader said.

- Iran traditionally buys around 44% of its imported barley from the EU, but usually it is Germany and Baltic origins that are exported, while around 40% of all its imports comes from Russia. Currently, FOB offer ideas for French barley stand at around $385/mt FOB La Pallice for panamax cargos, while German and Baltic origins are also in the same range at $383-387/mt FOB. On the freight side, howerver, northern Europe commands a $3-5/mt premium.

Jun 15  - EU Agri market pre comments (StoneX)
- Biodiesel demand ideas were being thrown all around yesterday. We have Argentina priming to increase blending requirements from 5% to 7.5% and then we have Latvia announcing that biodiesel blending will be discretionary. The Argies are using their increase to try and deflate fuel costs there as diesel costs soar while in Latvia they are passing the blame to oil companies should vegoil prices stay strong. The Latvian scenario sets a troubling precedent for other markets and creates greater uncertainty to vegoil S&D's.
- In the background palmoil is making strong moves lower as Indonesia make stronger efforts to try now to stimulate exports rather than suppress them.
- Natural gas prices in Europe jumped as the freeport terminal in the US that is responsible for a lot of LNG exports suffered a significant explosion that will inhibit LNG export capacity for coming months. US gas prices fall, EU price jump. This is what happens when you go from taking all your eggs out of one basket and putting it in the other basket and that basket explodes. You end up with no baskets and no eggs.
- Ukraine talk has already started to cast an eye to harvest 2023, we were lucky last year the conflict came post w. wheat planting. This time around its hard to imagine farmers taking biggest risk with limited resources this Autumn. Urea Fert. prices falling.

Jun 15  - Russia's war may deprive world of three Ukrainian wheat harvests - minister
Russia's invasion of Ukraine will create a global wheat shortage for at least three seasons by keeping much of the Ukrainian crop from markets, pushing prices to record levels, Ukraine's agriculture minister told Reuters. Ukraine, sometimes known as Europe's bread basket, has had its maritime grain export routes blocked by Russia and faces a maelstrom of other problems, from mined wheat fields to a lack of grain storage space.

Jun 15  - Biden touts grain silos on Ukraine border to help exports; Kyiv wants ports open

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday that temporary silos would be built along the border with Ukraine in a bid to help export more grain and address a growing global food crisis. Since the Russian invasion and blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports, grain shipments have stalled and more than 20 million tonnes are stuck in silos. Ukraine says it faces a shortage of silos for a new crop. The war is stoking prices for grains, cooking oils, fuel and fertilizer.

Jun 15  - Asian buyers eye French, Romanian wheat after Ukrainian supply blocked

Asian flour millers are likely to increase wheat purchases from France and Romania in the new crop year starting July as supplies from key global exporter Ukraine remain cut off following the invasion by Russia, trade sources said.World prices rallied to an all-time high in March after the Feb. 24 invasion. India's subsequent move to curb wheat exports and adverse weather in the United States have heightened concerns over grain supplies.

Jun 15  - Iraq procured 1.8 mln tonnes of wheat so far
-state news agency
Iraq has procured 1.8 million tonnes of wheat so far, while it needs 3 million tonnes for strategic reserves, Iraq's state news agency (INA) reported on Tuesday, citing the Trade Ministry's spokesman. "The overall amount [of wheat procured] may reach 2 million tonnes, with what we have available it is possible )the wheat) will suffice the country until next November," ministry spokesman Mohammed Hanoun said.

Jun 14  - Internal woes blunt Argentina’s wheat export clout amid tight global supplies (AgriCensus)
- Early expectations that Argentina could capitalise on the interruption in wheat supplies from the Black Sea appear to be fading as a combination of weather, inflation and political uncertainty combine to thwart the country’s agriculture and export sector. The 2022/23 winter wheat crop, currently being planted, is the first of Argentina’s main crops to be sown after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has compounded high global prices for agricultural commodities this year and driven them to new heights.
However, with farmers planting under the lingering impact of a second consecutive La Nina - and amid early fears that the country could experience an extremely rare third consecutive La Nina in the months ahead  - dry conditions have slowed planting progress.

- A total of just 30% of the area has been planted with wheat as of June 8, down 6.2 percentage points from the same levels of a year ago, according to the latest estimates from the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BAGE). Initial estimates peg the wheat crop at 20.5 million mt for the 2022/23 season, down from the record high of 22.4 million mt in 2021/22, but the exchange has warned that planted area could be slashed further and any consequent hit to production potential likely to be exacerbated if dry conditions persist. And, with high prices affecting key inputs like fertilizers, farmers are potentially even more reliant on getting the right weather at the right times.  
“This year there are going to be less hectares planted with wheat and less use in fertilizers this season,” Jeremias Battistoni, Market Analyst from AZ Group, told Agricensus.

- Such are the worries about the upcoming season that farmers are said to be cutting their wheat area and migrating to barley as it is cheaper to grow. Alongside that, some area has been lost as the dry conditions mean producers that have purchased intermediate to long cycle seeds won't be able to plant unless the rains come soon, the Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR) said.
“But wheat export dynamics are surging this year, with around 90% of the exportable quota filled already. However, only 30% of the crop has been planted… so there is a risk there,” Battistoni added.

- Fertilizer usage in Argentina – key to obtain good yields – is estimated to fall 7% in 2022 according to Argentina's fertilizer association, mainly due to high fertilizer prices, political uncertainty and difficulties accessing US dollars in Argentina. The lower fertilizer usage is expected to be impact wheat and corn more specifically, which have the highest percentage of fertiliser use on hectares when compared to other crops.  
“We have a historic opportunity to sell more commodities to the world due to the strong demand and high global prices… but we don’t do it,” an Argentine source said to Agricensus.

- Interventionist measures have been a key theme for global agricultural markets this year as countries - often major exporters - try to secure domestic supply. And the government of President Alberto Fernandez has imposed a series of protective measures to tackle ever-rising domestic inflation levels in the country, warning of increases in export taxes and potential additional measures to protect the domestic market, and bringing further uncertainty into the farming sector. The measure that has greatest impact for the grains trade is the so-called “equilibrium volumes” imposed for the first time for wheat in December 2021, whereby an automatic ban on exports and other restrictions are triggered when a threshold volume determined by the Government are achieved.  For wheat, the export quota for has been set at 10 million mt for 2022/23, some 4.5 million mt below the exports achieved in 2021/22, when the country hosted a record crop of 22.4 million mt.
“There is a lack of responsibility from the Argentine government, that instead of encouraging the sowing of wheat so that we reach 20 or 22 million mt, they have stopped exports at ten million tonnes”, Luis Miguel Etchevehere, from the Rural Society of Argentina (SRA), said at a global conference at the end of last week.
“The world should not expect Argentina to contribute significantly to export volumes this year,” an Argentina-based grain analyst told Agricensus.

- Together, the weather, political uncertainty and ongoing concerns arouond potential increases in export taxes for key Argentine export products has led farmers to migrate to other crops that are less exposed to the political uncertainty of late.
“Many farmers have migrated away from wheat to plant barley instead, where at least the internal political issue does not affect them, as it also escapes some eventual export closure,” another Argentina-based grain source told Agricensus.

- The barley area in 2022/23 is expected to expand by 8.3% on the year to 1.3 million ha according to BAGE, resulting in a provisional output of 5.4 million mt for 2022/23.
High global prices for wheat have led to revenues in the first six months of the marketing year to exceed $3.740 billion, a record high for the same period, according to BCR.
And while Brazil remains the main market for Argentine wheat, taking 2.6 million mt in the first half of 2021/22, an increase in shipments to Africa has been noted taking 5.9 million mt to the continent, according to BCR.

Jun 14  - EU Agri Pre Market Comments (StoneX)
- Ag. Markets swept up in the equity market weakness. With unemployment in the US and EU running at historically low levels it is on one side bullish on "stuff" on the other hand the 2008 experience still resonates as piller of why people have put options sitting in the background of overall positions.
- The inflation picture still painted in a way that the Fed. are expected to go as far as a 75 point increase in interest rates this week. The pace of interest rates is quicker in the US than the EU and hence why the euro is making a path to wards parity. The weak euro is a support to Matif products that should not be discounted.
- The EU commission report a record rapeseed crop in Ukraine. It can be 10x the record but logisitics remain the bottleneck. There will be no records (at least not the good types) broken for wheat and corn in Ukraine and even if there were record production they remain locked away trying to granny out of the keyhole. Until someone opens the door granny is not getting to the wedding.
- The US weather needs to be watched as we build heat/dryness there. THe EU crop developing up through Spain, S. France and Bulgaria.

Jun 14  - Ukraine's besieged farmers fear war-time harvest 'hell'
As 10-metre high mounds of sunflower meal smoulder among the blackened ruins of one of Ukraine's top agricultural terminals, farmers in this front-line region are scrambling to survive a harvest under Russian fire. They see Russia's shelling of the Nika-Tera port facility in the southern city of Mykolaiv on June 4 as just the most dramatic example of a wider assault on a pillar of Ukraine's economy - and the world's.

Jun 14  - BHP open to potash partner but plans to enter fertilizer business alone
BHP Group is open to taking on a partner as it builds its first potash mine in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan, but can also go it alone and is not currently involved in discussions with rival Nutrien Ltd, a senior BHP executive said on Monday. "We are more than happy and willing to work with partners. We don't need a partner though," Ragnar Udd, BHP president of Minerals Americas, said in an interview with Reuters. "So it has to be really about what's that partner actually going to be contributing to the mix."

Jun 14  - India holds ample rice stocks, no plans to curb exports  - food secretary
India, the world's biggest rice exporter, has ample stocks of the staple and there is no plan to restrict exports, the top official at the food ministry said on Monday. India's surprise decision to ban wheat exports on May 14 raised concerns about potential curbs on rice exports as well, prompting rice traders to step up purchases and place atypical orders for longer-dated deliveries.

Jun 13  - Turkey revisits TMO tender buying remit amid surging prices (AgriCensus)
- A decision to allow Turkey’s state-backed grain importing agency, TMO, to buy directly from governments or other state-backed companies – rather than via a public tender – is intended to lower import prices, trade sources have told Agricensus Monday. The change was announced in the public gazette on Friday and allows a change to the tender rules that will allow the agency to contract directly via import product purchases via direct purchasing from other governments or from an approved list of companies.
“The thinking is that they wish to buy (imports) cheaper,” one Turkey-based contact told Agricensus.

- For major importers, like Turkey or Egypt, the act of issuing a buy tender – often for hundreds of thousands of tonnes – will often result in a jump in prices as traders anticipate new demand entering the market. However, the trade source highlighted that any heavy buying from any major importer is likely to firm prices.
“Any time TMO asks for offers, the market will jump up anyway… I’m also hearing that TMO is asking for offers already,” the trade source said.

- The tender process – which was typically a two-tier process where best offers from the first round would be scrutinised before the agency pressed for discounts in a second round – could deny the association that cost-cutting step.
“It seems to me like buying without the reverse auction, just on a bid basis. TMO always benefitted from the reverse auction phase, i.e., the second round in their tenders,” the trader said.

- Turkey has tweaked its import mechanism in recent months – a response in part to surging international prices and the collapse of the lira against the US dollar on international currency markets. That dynamic has driven domestic inflationary pressures and led the agency to adopt a split process – often tendering for delivered corn separately from its efforts to tempt volumes away from domestic stocks. The move also comes as two of the country's main suppliers – Ukraine and Russia – have seen supply profoundly interrupted after Russia invaded its neighbour on February 24.  That has affected trade flows in the region, posing problems for every importing country across the region, amid physical blockades at major Ukrainian ports and sanctions affecting international trade. Turkey last tendered to buy corn at the tail end of May, picking up 175,000 mt of corn on a deliver CFR basis, and 150,000 mt of corn on an ex works domestic basis, but the country also buys wheat, sunoil and other agriculture commodities via tender. According to the Agricensus Tender Dashboard, the country issued at least 26 tenders in 2021, securing at least 209 cargoes and 5.7 million mt of produce at an average price of $327.32/mt.

- To date, the country has issued 16 tenders in 2022, securing 162 cargoes and just over 3 million mt of product at $454.14/mt – a near 40% increase on the previous year.
 

Jun 13  - U.S. cuts soy supply outlook, raises corn, wheat stocks view
U.S. soybean stocks will be smaller than previously forecast as export demand for U.S. offerings remains strong even with recently harvested supplies from Brazil and Argentina available for overseas buyers, the government said on Friday. But corn supplies were estimated to be bigger than earlier forecasts, bucking market expectations for tighter stocks, as rising prices chilled export activity.

Jun 13  - French wheat crop rating edges down further as rain returns
The condition of France's soft wheat crop deteriorated for a sixth consecutive week, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed, but a smaller decline in the latest week suggested rain and cooler temperatures may be curbing spring drought. An estimated 66% of the French soft wheat crop was in good or excellent condition in the week to June 6, against 67% the previous week, FranceAgriMer said in a cereal crop report on Friday.

Jun 13  - The sea mines floating between Ukraine’s grain stocks and the world
As the United Nations tries to broker a path for grain from Ukraine and temper worries about a global food crisis, hundreds of mines laid along the Black Sea present a practical nightmare that will take months to resolve even after any agreement. The Black Sea is crucial for shipment of grain, oil and oil products. Its waters are shared by Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia and Turkey, as well as Ukraine and Russia.

Jun 13  - Ukraine grain exports via Poland, Romania face bottlenecks  - deputy foreign minister
Ukraine has established two routes through Poland and Romania to export grain and avert a global food crisis although bottlenecks have slowed the supply chain, Kyiv's deputy foreign minister said on Sunday. Dmytro Senik said global food security was at risk because Russia's invasion of Ukraine had halted Kyiv's Black Sea grain exports, causing widespread shortages and soaring prices.

Jun 11  - South Africa’s 2022 corn exports show potential despite new crop issues (AgriCensus)

- South African farmers are expected to harvest a smaller corn crop in the 2022/23 marketing year but are still likely to have another active exporting campaign, despite optimistic crop expectations in other competitive origins like South America and the US. The harvesting campaign has been delayed by heavy rains and flooding across the country experienced in April and May, with the weather inflicting crop damage.
“Corn crop size looks decent but it's smaller than last year. We are seeing more long-term yield than the above-average of the past few years, lower hectares as well are playing a role,” a South Africa-based trader told Agricensus.

- The estimates now stand at 14.72 million mt, down by 10% from last year’s record crop of 16.31 million mt, according to an outlook published by the local Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) in late May. A lower crop expectation is based on smaller planted areas, that are down 5% year-on-year at 2.62 million ha, compared to 2.75 million ha planted last year. Nevertheless, market participants are projecting another active export campaign, despite a potential decrease in the export surplus.
“South Africa has been killing it so far, all slots are fully allocated into August,” a Singapore-based trader said on the prevalence of South African corn forward sales.
“For now, it seems we will export much the same as previous years as we have healthy carryover stocks. It won’t be the same amount as last year as that was one of our highest years on record, but mostly because Brazil had crop issues,” a South-Africa-based trader said.

- Indeed, the season of 2021/22 was one of the busiest for the country, when exporters managed to ship a total of 3.73 million mt of corn between May 2021 and April 2022. Cargoes mainly left for Taiwan (880,319 mt), Japan (824,823 mt), Vietnam (499,882 mt) and South Korea (430,395 mt), according to South African Grain Information Service (Sagis). The USDA is forecasting South Africa’s 2022/23 corn exports at 2.5 million mt. Since the beginning of the season last month, a total of 330,510 mt of both yellow (200,482 mt) and white (130,028 mt) sailed from South Africa, heading mainly to Asian destinations as well as southern Europe, according to SAGIS data.

Jun 10  - EU Morning Comments ( StoneX )
- USDA report today. Lots to look for, with CONAB holding steady on corn production chances are USDA hold that number steady too. They are too high on wheat exports so that may well get adjusted lower but where they put is important to next seasons S&D. Take up demand then it has implications in the context of lower production. they currently expect production down 2MMT, that made too optimistic.
- India will be another variable liable to move, they are at 108.5MMT, that can easily be 10-20MMT too high which takes their export program negative if realised.

- Goodness knows how they approach Russia and Ukraine, does it even matter what their opinion is at this stage? For the marketing year the range of export potentials are not much tighter than 10-20MMT range of grain.
- Chatting with our colleagues in Australia yesterday it sounds like a whopper rapeseed crop is buidling there.
- An eye on Canadian figures will be worthwhile with variable weather there.
- Indonesia meanwhile adjusting their export taxes that should benefit exports but the Malysian palmoil statistics at face value read bullish with stocks being drawn down further, despite this palmoil futures sliding back to support overnight.I think the greater worry for them is the demand side and the prospect of a return to wide range of lockdowns in China.

Jun 10  - Indonesia raises palm oil export tax but still aims to increase shipments
Indonesia raised its maximum export tax for crude palm oil by 44% on Friday but reductions in another levy are expected to reduce overall fees to send palm oil products overseas and encourage export shipments. Indonesia, the world's biggest palm oil exporter, allowed palm shipments to resume from May 23 following a three-week ban aimed at shoring up local supplies of cooking oil and keeping runaway prices in check. But it is making various changes to its exports rules, including reducing the total export tax and levy.

Jun 10  - U.S. Supreme Court will soon decide whether to hear Bayer's weedkiller case

The U.S. Supreme Court could announce as soon as Monday whether it will hear Bayer's bid to dismiss claims its Roundup weedkiller causes cancer as the company seeks to avoid potentially billions of dollars more in damages and payouts. Bayer is seeking review of an appeals court decision that upheld $25 million in damages awarded to California resident Edwin Hardeman, a user of glyphosate-based weedkiller Roundup, who blamed his cancer on the product.

Jun 10  - Some 601,115 tonnes of Ukrainian grains pass through Romanian Black Sea port

Ukraine has sent some 601,115 tonnes of grains to the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta since Russia invaded on Feb. 24, with an additional 120,294 tonnes en route, the port said on Thursday. The grains it has sent by barge, train and truck to the Romanian port amount to roughly 3% of the 20 million tonnes it needs to move before the new harvest starting at the end of July to avoid bottlenecks and forestall a global food crisis.

Jun 10  - Japan buys 146,990 tonnes of food wheat via tenders

Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 146,990 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in regular tenders that closed on Thursday. The ministry has also tendered 22,260 tonnes of Standard White wheat from Australia on Tuesday, but no deals were done for the supply, a ministry official said.

Jun 09  - First Indian wheat cargo clears inspections in Egypt (AgriCensus)
- The first Indian wheat cargo of 55,000 mt that was reported sold back in late April has reached the Egypt port Alexandria and passed all the needed inspections, trade sources said Thursday.
“Mana (the vessel name), first Indian wheat vessel to Egypt shipped by Mera Group, has passed all tests in Egypt and will commence discharge tomorrow,” Neal Sahni, CEO and Co-Founder of Mera Group said.

- The sale was reported back in late April just along with the news that Egypt's agriculture plant quarantine agency has approved Indian origin wheat for import, after lengthy discussions on the issue of a fungal disease known as “karnal bunt” that is present in Indian wheat.
“We worked very hard to ensure that we ship the quality as per the parameters of the Egypt Government and we are glad we succeeded,” Neal also said.
The vessel was set for shipment in May and was partially loaded when the Indian government banned the commercial export of wheat May 13, therefore the Indian government allowed it to complete the loading.

- Meanwhile, four of the 19 vessels nominated to leave during May carrying a total of 232,000 mt of wheat are still stuck in Indian ports, while at least one did not even reach the port and switched destination, according to line up and marine traffic.

Jun 09  - Europe Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- It was great to meet some of you at the GAFTA dinner last night. Very little market chat to be honest so didn’t any great sense of sentiment, no careless whispers. Traders praying for time for some sort of resolution to Ukrainian export logistics this side of new crop.
- Last Christmas we were trading €270/tonne and as we speak Dec. 22 is exactly €100/tonne higher.
- The Brazilian corn production forecast was raised slightly which will hopefully heal the pain a little for corn buyers who are Ok to look to Brazil and US for cover this side of the new year but it looks tricker to cover corn shorts for Jan-Apr in the absence of Ukraine.
- Politicians around the world knowing that elections are coming around the corner are looking to inflation and looking for ways to get fast love ahead of that and being perceived as the authors of the inflation hex their positions are dubious and we may well expect more drastic measures by politicians to control the cost of living and heighten the policial risk further.
- Based on the taxi driver conversation last night the public have lost faith with leaders. Bolsonaro the first major leader to face the electorat in October. Farmer there love him and he is something of a father figure openning up new lands, the city people it seeems less so...

Jun 09  - China Jan-May soybean imports fall 0.4% to 38.04 mln tonnes - customs
China's soybean imports during the January-May period fell from a year earlier, as poor crush margins curbed demand, customs data showed on Thursday. China, the world's top soybean importer, brought in 38.04 million tonnes in the first five months of the year, down 0.4% from the same period a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

Jun 09  - Indonesia launches scheme to speed up palm oil exports

Indonesia has launched an export acceleration scheme aimed at shipping at least 1 million tonnes of crude palm oil and derivatives following a recent export ban, according to a trade ministry regulation made public on Thursday. The regulation is effective immediately and the acceleration scheme applies until July 31.

Jun 09  - Turkey struggles to push Russia, Ukraine into grain deal to avert food crisis
Turkish efforts to ease a global food crisis by negotiating safe passage for grain stuck in Black Sea ports met resistance as Ukraine said Russia was imposing unreasonable conditions and the Kremlin said free shipment depended on an end to sanctions. The war between Russia and Ukraine, the world's third and fourth largest grain exporters respectively, has added to food price inflation and put global food supplies at risk.

Jun 09  - Ukraine's grain crop at risk as silos still half full due to stalled exports
Grain silos in Ukraine's government-controlled territory are about half full in the run-up to this year's harvest, meaning crops could be left in the ground if Russia continues its port blockade, the head of the Ukraine Grain Association said on Wednesday. Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, the world's fourth largest grains exporter, halted Kyiv's Black Sea grain exports, threatening a global food crisis and triggering protests across developing countries.

Jun 08  - Russia confirms moving grains from Ukraine's occupied territories (AgriCensus)
- Russian authorities have officially reported that they are ready to load grains from Ukrainian ports that are currently occupied by Russian forces – including the heavily damaged Mariupol, and the port of Berdyansk, according to Russian media agency Interfax. The agency has also reported that the first train loaded with grain had departed from the Zaporizhzhia region in southeast Ukraine and was destined to reach Crimea, according to the report.
"Berdyansk sea port has started work. On behalf of the commander-in-chief we are ready to load grain in these ports,” the Russian minister of defense was reported in the media to have said of loadings at both Berdyansk and Mariupol.

- Grain vessels that were caught in Berdyansk port on the day of the Russian invasion left the ports in March under orders from Russian military forces, although a vessel docked in Mariupol and nominated to head to Turkey was left behind. The vessel has been out of range for the last 99 days, although Russian media earlier showed it remains still in the port. The move comes along with the Russian-controlled head of the military-civil administration for the Zaporizhzhia region, Eugene Balitsky, stating that the first eleven wagons loaded with grains were heading from elevators at Mariupol towards the Crimea region.
“And it will not be just 11 wagons, but it will be hundreds of wagons, thousands of wagons. Naturally, our farmers will receive money that will be very important to them so that they can sow the next harvest, " he was quoted in Interfax. He did not specify exactly which farmers would receive money for that grain.

- Russian authorities also reported that rail connections between the occupied territories had been restored to the Crimean region - which Russia invaded back in 2014 - with connections restored on six sections, meaning now it is possible to move grains by rail, not just by truck. It also comes after Ukrainian officials said that at least 500,000 mt of grains - valued at tens of millions of dollars - had been moved from Ukrainian regions occupied by Russian troops towards Russia or Crimea since the start of the war on February 24. Some local sources have also said that the removed grains were taken rather than being paid for, but that has proved impossible to confirm. For those grains that were paid for, prices are at least half the values paid in to producers in Ukrainian-controlled territories.

- Russia currently occupies Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which are the key ones for sunflower production but were not that significant for the winter crops and corn production.  Alongside that, Russia still also occupies the Crimea region.

Jun 08  - Russian, Turkish defence ministers discuss Syria, grain exports from Ukraine
The Russian and Turkish defence ministers discussed a potential grain exports corridor from Ukraine and northern Syria on Tuesday, Turkey's defence ministry said, as Ankara and Moscow prepare for talks between their foreign ministers. NATO member Turkey shares a sea border with both Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea, and has been working to mediate in their war. It has supported Kyiv, but refused to impose sanctions on Moscow. Russia and Turkey also back opposing sides in Syria.

Jun 08  - Indonesia to cut maximum palm oil export tax and levy to a combined $488/T - trade minister
Indonesia Trade Minister Muhammad Lutfi said on Tuesday the government would bring down its combined maximum crude palm oil export and levy rate to $488 per tonne from $575 per tonne to encourage shipments. Indonesia, the world's biggest palm oil producer, has allowed palm oil exports to resume after a three-week ban, but progress has been slow due to red tape, keeping palm mills' storage tanks full.

Jun 08  - Russian attack destroys warehouses of major Ukrainian commodity terminal,
governor says
Russian shelling destroyed the warehouses of one of Ukraine's largest agricultural commodities terminals in the Black Sea port of Mykolaiv over the weekend, the head of the region said on Tuesday. Ukraine, one of the world's leading grain producers and exporters, operates dozens of export terminals along the Black Sea where cities are regularly shelled by Russia. A Russian blockade is preventing Ukraine from using the sea for exports.

Jun 08  - UK seeks investigation into alleged Ukraine grain theft by Russia
Britain's farming minister called on Tuesday for an immediate investigation into allegations that Russia had been stealing grain from Ukraine, following Moscow's invasion which has driven up world food prices to record levels. Black Sea ports in Ukraine, the world's fourth-largest grains exporter, have been blocked since the invasion, with about 20 million tonnes of grain now stuck in the country.

Jun 08  - Brazil’s Mato Grosso corn estimates trimmed, soybeans at all-time high: IMEA
- Brazil’s main corn and oilseeds producer Mato Grosso has produced the largest soybean crop in history while 2021/22 corn estimates were trimmed by 0.5% to 39.2 million mt, the state’s agriculture institute IMEA showed late Monday. The new corn figures represent a 191,000 mt reduction when compared to those released in early May as an increase in acreage was more than offset by falling yields.
“The reason behind the yield estimate cut is the hydric deficit that a large part of the state has been facing since April 2022,” IMEA said.

- The institute has highlighted that the areas that are suffering more severely from the lack of moisture are the same that had the largest proportion of grains planted after the ideal window. Output cuts were not greater due to a 1.2% uptick in acreage estimates.
“The increase in planted area is underpinned by high corn price levels and expectations of robust export and domestic demand,” IMEA said.

- If IMEA’s estimates prove right, this will be the largest corn crop on record in the estate despite the minor month-on-month output cut. Meanwhile, IMEA has consolidated its 2021/22 soybean acreage figures at 11.5 million hectares through satellite images. This represents a 5.1% increase compared to the institute’s previous estimate released in early-May and a 9.7% jump compared to the previous marketing year.

- As for corn, high prices and robust demand were behind soybean acreage increase, IMEA said. Mato Grosso’s soybean yields were consolidated at 59.3 bags per hectare, 3.3% higher year-on-year. Based on these consolidated figures, the state has produced 40.9 million mt of beans in 2021/22, IMEA said, an all-time high and 13.3% higher year-on-year.

Jun 07  - EU market pre open comments ( StoneX)
- The trades focus on wheat and the will they wont they around Ukraine. Talks gathering momentum but the probabilities seem low of anything approaching efficient exports. Judging by the actions of Russian forces and the reactions of the market we are a long way off turning the key on Ukrainian supplies.

- Options implied volatility taking an upswing again. Behind the punches to the face the rolling Ukrainian news brings to market participants there are digs in the ribs that almost go unnoticed, There is a 10MMT difference in opinion regarding Brazil’s corn crop from 118MMT to 105MMT seems to be the range.

- The spring wheat areas of the US and Canada have had mixed situations, we can well see areas contracting in some regions and record production in others. Consumers still seem reluctant to commit greatly to new crop purchases.

- EU biodiesel market see's a near term shortage in RME supplies with issues getting RSO and/or catalyst. Regular diesel markets remain on fire, this will nudge up cost of production and will start off harvest 23 in an expensive place, remember that harvest 22 saw most winter crops miss the worst of the high input costs until the spring.

Jun 07  - India Potash's rouble-rupee payment deal stumbles in Russian bank
Russia's Sberbank has yet to process the first payment from Indian Potash Ltd (IPL) under a deal set up before the Ukraine war to enable IPL to pay for Belarusian potash using rupees rather than dollars, according to a letter seen by Reuters and two sources familiar with the issue. The faltering pre-war payment deal bodes ill for India's plan to create rupee-rouble trade mechanisms that can bypass dollar and euro payments to avoid U.S. and Western sanctions imposed after Moscow's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.

Jun 07  - India's May palm oil imports surge to 7-month high despite Indonesia's ban
- dealers
India's palm oil exports in May were its highest in seven months and up 15% on April as the country overcame curbs on Indonesian exports by sourcing more of the commodity from Malaysia, Thailand and Papua New Guinea, five industry officials said. Higher purchases by India, the world's biggest importer of vegetable oil, could support Malaysian palm oil prices, which are trading near a record high.

Jun 07  - Ukraine not ready to export grain via Belarus  - Zelenskiy
Ukraine is not ready to agree to a plan to export its grain by rail across Belarus for shipment via the Baltic Sea to bypass Russia's blockade of its Black Sea ports, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday. Zelenskiy told a news conference in the capital Kyiv that there could be as much as 75 million tonnes of grain stuck in Ukraine this autumn.

Jun 07  - Panicked traders step up forward Indian rice purchases after wheat export ban
- sources
India's surprise ban on wheat exports has prompted rice traders to increase purchases and place unusual orders for longer-dated deliveries, fearing the world's top rice exporter may restrict those shipments as well, four exporters told Reuters. In the last two weeks, traders have signed contracts to export 1 million tonnes of rice for shipments from June through September and are opening letters of credit (LCs) quickly after signing deals to ensure the contracted quantity will be sent even if India restricts exports, the people said.

Jun 07  - Wheat futures surge after Russia strikes Ukrainian grain terminal (AgriCensus)
- Global wheat markets surged on Monday after a Russian attack on silos at the Ukrainian port of Mykolaiv raised additional doubts about the likelihood that Russia will allow Ukrainian crop exports.    
"Traders are losing confidence Russia will live up to their expectations to allow Ukraine to export grain, after two warehouses with sunflower meal at Nikatera (Ukraine) were hit by a rocket over the weekend,"  Terry Reilly, senior grain and oilseed commodity analyst at Futures International, told Agricensus.
"That and thin volume, with many countries on holiday, is creating a wide trading range," Reilly added.

- As of 1115 Eastern time, Chicago SRW futures were down 5-6% on the previous settlement, with July trading at $11.01/bu and September at $11.12/bu. Chicago HRW futures were also down around 5% on last Friday’s settlement, with July at $11.78/bu and September at $11.84/bu.
"Part of the rally is because the nearby Chicago future had dropped $1.40 top to bottom in three sessions, and the market got oversold," said Charlie Sernatinger of ED&F Man.  

- The Russian shelling of Mykolaiv is "putting the lie to the Russians about allowing grain to be exported out of Ukraine through the Black Sea – if you don’t have a loading terminal, you can’t load any ships," Sernatinger said.  A national holiday in France, where drought has led to concerns about the size of the country's wheat crop, has reduced trading volume in Europe and added to the volatility analysts and brokers said.
"Today is a holiday in France, so the cooperatives are not making any statements on the damage, but commercials feel like it was substantial, pushing up Matif futures and US futures are responding," Sernatinger said.  

- In Europe, the front-month September Euronext milling wheat futures contract approached the €400/mt mark, trading at €398.5/mt, up €20.25/mt, while December climbed by €19.50/mt to €392.75/mt.
"Finally, there was a major hail storm over the center of France this weekend with tennis-ball-sized hail falling on wheat fields and vignobles, with bad damage suspected to the crop,"  Sernatinger said.

Jun 06  - Malaysia palm group warns of losses ahead from 'severe' labour crunch
Malaysia is missing a golden opportunity to capitalise on high palm oil prices and could suffer more production losses due to a "severe" shortage of about 120,000 workers, the Malaysian Estate Owners' Association (MEOA) told Reuters on Monday. The world's second biggest palm oil producer has been struggling to harvest palm fruit due to a labour shortage exacerbated by its pandemic-related immigration restrictions.

Jun 06  - Putin says Ukrainian grain can be exported through Belarus
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday denied Moscow was preventing Ukrainian ports from exporting grain and said the best solution would be to ship it through Belarus, as long as sanctions on that country were lifted. Putin, saying reports of a Russian export ban were "a bluff", told national television that Western nations were trying to cover up their own policy mistakes by blaming Russia for problems on the global food market.

Jun 06  - Egypt rejects ship carrying Indian wheat originally intended for Turkey
Egypt barred the entry of a ship carrying 55,000 tonnes of Indian wheat originally intended for Turkey because it did not meet quarantine requirements, Egyptian plant quarantine chief Ahmed El Attar said on Saturday. “We rejected the ship before it entered Egypt," El Attar told Reuters, adding that Turkish quarantine authorities had already blocked the arrival of the vessel.

Jun 06  - India says no plans for now to curb food exports
India has no plans to curb food exports for now, Piyush Goyal, the Minister for Commerce and Industry, Consumer Affairs and Food and Public Distribution said on Friday, weeks after New Delhi banned private wheat exports. "As of now we do not see the need to do it on any other commodity," Goyal said answering a query whether the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi was considering banning the export of food products such as rice.

Jun 04  - France on alert ahead of potential drought (AgriCensus)
- Despite the improvement in the weather last week, the condition of all French crops has deteriorated over the week ending May 30, according to the French state farming agency Franceagrimer in Friday's report. Temperatures have remained elevated and the rainfall was not enough to significantly reverse the drought trend, along with just patchy storms over the past few weeks that have damaged crops in some parts of the country and also led to quality ratings being downgraded.
- The favorable effect from rainfall can only be seen in the fact that the downgrade of the crops condition was the smallest incremental change of the last four weeks. In a statement one of France's main farmers groups, FNSEA, said it saw “no improvement on the drought front.”

- The winter soft wheat crop continued its slide, with the crop rated “good to excellent” losing two percentage points on the week to 67% - down from 80% at this stage last year. The share of the winter barley rated “good to excellent” lost one percentage point on the week to 65%, down from 76% last year.  The condition of French spring barley crop took a bigger hit, falling by seven percentage points for a second successive week with the share of crop rated “good to excellent” now at 54%, down from 84% at the same time last year.
- Durum rated “good to excellent” dropped by three percentage points to 64% during the week up to May 30, down from 68% at the same time last year.
- French corn saw its condition was stable, with its share of “good to excellent” pegged at 91%, up from last year’s 90%.

- Since May 30, the prefecture has issued a decree on water restriction and irrigation measures, that implies the cessation of non-priority water withdrawal, including for agricultural purposes, from specific areas. There are 24 districts across the country that are concerned about measures to limit the use of water and irrigation. Of those, nine districts are on high alert, which will be subject to a measure to reduce water consumption for agricultural purposes by more than or equal to 50% (or a ban greater than or equal to 3.5 days a week).
These areas are: Ain, Ardeche, Dordogne, Pyrenees-Atlantique, Tarn, Var, Deux-Sevres, Charente and Maritime Charente.

- Ten districts are on alert and will be subject to less than 50% reduction in water consumption (or a ban of up to 3 days a week). These are Ile-et-Villain, Sarthe, Maine and Loire, Yonne, Haute-Savoie, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence, Hautes-Alpes, Alpes-Maritimes, Vaucluse and Drome.

- Finally, 11 districts have been put on full or localized vigilance.

Jun 03  - EU Morning Comments ( StoneX )
- French crop ratings decline as expected and the week lag means next week will be interesting to see if the rain forecasts materialise over France and if that eases yield concerns for there.
- Consumers remain focused on harvest pressure as cause to stay spot but when Matif was 440 that was also the argument, now at 383 is a €60/tonne decline not enough of a drop to get the ball rolling.
- GASC certainly seem to think so and generally if they start buying in June they stay active buyers ahead of new crop. The Matif wheat v CME wheat spread continues to firm indicating that EU supplies and logistics may not be the panacea the market desires.
- Incredible directionless volatility in the soybean complex and now regularly up and down 30-40c/bu one day to the next. Great if you are day trader, tricky if you are trying to take a longer term view.
- StoneX pegging the BRazilian corn crop at 116.8MMT, up slightly on their prior estimate, I like my colleagues optimisim but many dont share it.
- Lots of newswire reporting optimistic forecasts for Australia as they are expected to produce a 3 year of decent production

Jun 03 - Record Chinese wheat prices raise risk of pricier noodles
Chinese consumers are likely to have to pay more for food staples like noodles and bread this year, as record wheat prices in the world's top consumer of the grain get passed on to food makers, traders and analysts said. Wheat harvested in China in recent weeks is being sold at around 3,200 yuan ($477) per tonne, about 30% higher than a year ago and the highest level on record, despite stable demand.

Jun 03 - Argentina's grain exchange expects decline in wheat planting area
Argentina's wheat planting area for the 2022/23 season is expected to be around 6.5 million hectares, down from 6.6 million hectares previously forecast, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BdeC) said on Thursday. The exchange blamed the 100,000 hectare (247,000 acre) reduction on dry conditions in northern Argentina, with no rains seen in short term forecasts. The exchange said previously that high fertilizer prices and rising input costs are also having negative effects on the new wheat season.

Jun 03 - Algeria bought around 90,000 T wheat in small-port tender - traders
Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 90,000 tonnes of milling wheat in an international tender this week that covered two small ports, European traders said. The tender, which closed on Tuesday, had sought wheat for shipment to one or both of the ports of Mostaganem and Tenes.

Jun 02 - Australia set for 3rd year of bumper wheat harvests, easing world supply woes
Australia is poised for a third year of near-record wheat production in 2022 as good weather boosts planting across its grain belt, easing concerns over tight global inventories. World wheat supplies have tightened after Russia's invasion of Ukraine earlier this year cut off shipments from one of the top exporting regions, sending grain prices sharply higher and fuelling fears of a global food crisis.

Jun 02 - Biden administration announces $2.1 billion to strengthen food system
The Biden administration announced on Wednesday more than $2.1 billion in funding to shore up weaknesses in the country's food supply system exposed during the COVID-19 pandemic and the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Near-record food prices have challenged governments around the world, and the Biden administration's handling of inflation is a major concern for voters ahead of midterm elections in November.

Jun 01  - Asian importers turn to the EU wheat as regular supplies unavailable (AgriCensus)
- Southeast Asia-based wheat importers have expressed buying interest in European wheat and are looking for price quotations for French, Romanian and Bulgarian origins as their go-to suppliers are unable to supply for key July-August loading windows.
- Flour millers face low availability of offers in the market, with exports from Ukraine still unavailable and Australia - Indonesia’s biggest wheat supplier - out of the market for the next few months as the country’s port capacity is fully booked with the current strong export flows.
- Importers are also looking to cover positions they had booked with Indian wheat, after the authorities first encouraged and then banned exports - despite some sellers having letters of credit open in banks prior to the May 13 cut off date.
- Indian authorities have made an exception for any trades that have an LC in place, but all such deals are now being double-checked to exclude the possibility of fraud.
“There were at least five panamax-size vessels for shipment to Indonesia from India,” a Europe-based trader told Agricensus, with those volumes now facing an uncertain future until the export rules are clarified.

- Given the circumstances, buyers have expanded their search for supply and are considering buying either French, Romanian or Bulgarian milling wheat, which was priced in the range of $490-496/mt CFR Indonesia, based on freight rates at around $55-60/mt.
- Market sources reported bids coming from millers at around $475/mt CFR, but expect the levels to increase soon as the number of offers is unlikely to increase significantly any time soon.
- Global grain importers are easing import requirements to secure supply, changing the quality specifications and adding new origins to the book as trade flows change.
- Egypt, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Thailand and the Philippines have recently amended their import terms to be able to insure stock levels comply with the likely demand ahead.
- Indonesia is one of the world's biggest wheat importers, buying around 11 million mt of wheat annually, with more than 30 flour mills located in the country.
- Wheat importers delivered a total of 10.95 million mt of wheat to Indonesia in 2021, sourcing preliminary from Australia (5 million mt), Ukraine (3 million mt), Canada (1.67 million mt) and Argentina (537,117 mt).

Jun 01 - India cuts base import price of palm oil; raises soyoil price
India has slashed the base import prices of crude and refined palm oil, while raising the price of crude soyoil, the government said in a statement late on Tuesday. The government revises base import prices of edible oils, gold and silver every fortnight, and the prices are used to calculate the amount of tax an importer needs to pay.

Jun 01 - U.N. had 'constructive' talks in Moscow on Russian grain, fertilizer exports
A senior U.N. official had "constructive discussions" in Moscow with Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov on facilitating Russian grain and fertilizer exports to global markets, U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said on Tuesday. The U.N. official, Rebecca Grynspan, is now in Washington for talks on the same issue "with the key aim of addressing growing global food insecurity," Dujarric said.

Jun 01  - Global wheat futures plunge on weather, end-month selling (AgriCensus)

- Global wheat markets fell sharply Tuesday on the back of end of the month selling, the start of harvests in the US and better weather conditions, market sources said. As of 1315 Eastern Time Chicago SRW futures were down 5-6% on the previous settlement, with July trading at $10.88/bu and September at $10.98/bu. Chicago HRW futures were also down around 5% on last Friday’s settle, with July at $11.706/bu and September at $11.772/bu.
“End of month selling [is] adding to the bearish undertone. Great Plains and Northern spring wheat area are seeing an improvement in weather,” senior grain and oilseed commodity analyst at Futures International Terry Reilly told Agricensus.

- In Europe, the front month September Euronext milling wheat futures contract fell back below the €400/mt mark, settling at €392.25/mt, down €15.50/mt on the day. December settled at €385.75/mt, down €15/mt, and March 2023 at €381.40/mt, down €14.25/mt.
“The wheat market fell because harvest has started in earnest in the southern plains, forecasts have clearing weather for the spring wheat planting areas, and France got beneficial rains over the weekend,” added Charlie Sernatinger of ED&F Man.
“There is also some end of the month positioning pushing us down, and spreaders are front-running next week’s index roll of long positions from the July to the September,” he continued.

- Some market watchers also pointed to the possibility that Russia might allow exports of grain from Ukraine, as reported over the weekend. However, others thought the headlines were optimistic, but were creating additional selling, nonetheless.

May 31 - U.S. wheat crop hit by dry winter then soggy spring, adding to global tightness
North Dakota farmer Dwight Grotberg wanted to plant more wheat this spring to capitalize on soaring prices since Russia's invasion of Ukraine cut grain exports and left the world short of millions of tonnes of wheat supply. Heavy rain has prevented Grotberg from planting as much wheat crop as he wanted and is hampering farmers across the state, the top U.S. grower of spring wheat.

May 31 - Putin ready to facilitate unfettered grain exports from Ukraine's ports - Kremlin
President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that Russia was ready to facilitate the unhindered export of grain from Ukrainian ports in coordination with Turkey, according to a Kremlin readout of talks with President Tayyip Erdogan. Besides the death and devastation sown by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the war and the West's attempt to isolate Russia as punishment have sent the price of grain, cooking oil, fertiliser and energy soaring, hurting global growth.

May 31 - India asked to supply more than 1.5 mln tonnes wheat
India has received requests for the supply of more than 1.5 million tonnes of wheat from several countries that need the staple to overcome shortages triggered by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, trade and government sources said on Monday. "More than half a dozen countries have approached India for more than 1.5 million tonnes of wheat and we will see how to go about these requests," said a government official who didn't wish to be identified in line with official rules.

May 31 - Malaysia may review palm kernel cake exports to secure chicken feed supply
Malaysian authorities will discuss a possible review of the policy on palm kernel cake exports, which can be used as animal feed, in an effort to stabilise chicken supplies in the country, the commodities ministry said on Tuesday. Last week, Malaysia said it will halt all chicken exports from June until production and costs stabilise amid soaring prices.

 

 

May 30 - Putin says he's willing to discuss resuming Ukrainian grain shipments
Russian President Vladimir Putin told the leaders of France and Germany in a phone call on Saturday that Russia was willing to discuss ways to make it possible for Ukraine to resume shipments of grain from Black Sea ports, the Kremlin said. Russia and Ukraine account for nearly a third of global wheat supplies, while Russia is also a key global fertilizer exporter and Ukraine is a major exporter of corn and sunflower oil.

May 30 - Indonesia could issue palm oil export permits today -official
Indonesia's trade ministry has received a number of palm oil export permit requests that could be granted within the day, senior ministry official Veri Anggriono said on Monday. Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, allowed exports of the vegetable oil to resume from May 23, but companies have faced regulatory hurdles that have slowed the process of getting shipments out.

May 27  - EU Market Pre Open Comments (StoneX)
- We are living through the mother of all weather markets, the mother of all political market and when you put them together the mother of all uncertainty markets.

- As expected French crop condition ratings declined again and are in line with the ratings on the 2013 harvest campaign where they registered yields just below 7.5/ha. Most yield ideas are just under 6t/ha at the moment. A 6.5t/ha yield makes for a 31MMT wheat crop, a 7.5t/ha yield makes for a 36MMT wheat crop. 
- We seem more likley destined for the former rather than the latter but still a few MMT swing in possibilities.
- The momentum seems to be with Russia at the moment and they seem to going with a blanket bombing from afar approach. The Russians reiterating that they will allow exports of food products from Ukraine but of course with caveate that sanctions start to be lifted.
- Hungary remains the stumbling block to unified appraoch to EU sanctioning. Russia suggesting they will export 50MMT of grain next season.
- Energy markets seeing crack spreads firming again as the market remains poorly stocked. Goverments across the world mofing to subsidise energy domestic energy users to maintain demand and erode possibilities of demand erosion and lower prices.

May 27 - China pig breeders go high-tech in self-sufficiency push
Tiny slivers of ear tissue snipped from hours-old piglets offer valuable clues for the team at Best Genetics Group (BGG) as it strives to improve the genetics of China's hog herd to produce cheaper meat for the world's top pork consumer. Breeding pigs that have larger litters, reach slaughter weight quicker and require less feed can make a big difference in a market producing almost 700 million hogs a year.

May 27 - India has no plans to curb rice exports as local supplies surge
India does not plan to curb rice exports as the world's biggest exporter of the staple has sufficient stocks and local rates are lower than state-set support prices, trade and government sources said. India banned wheat exports on May 14, just days after New Delhi forecast record shipments of 10 million tonnes this year, as a heat wave hit output and sent domestic prices to record highs.

May 27  - African Swine Fever jumps to farm close to Germany’s border with France (IHSmarkit)

- Disease detected on farm with 35 free-range pigs in Baden-Württemberg
- Affected property located just a few kilometers from border with France
- Officials believe virus likely to have spread via ‘human action’ rather than wild boar

- Germany has confirmed an outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) on a farm in Baden-Württemberg, hundreds of kilometers southwest of previous cases and just a few kilometers from the French border. The national reference laboratory, the Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut (FLI), said the disease was found on a property with 35 free-range animals, located in the district of Emmendingen.

- ASF has been present in Germany since September 2020, when the disease was detected in a wild boar close to the border with Poland. Since then, ASF cases have occurred in Brandenburg (wild and domestic pigs) and in Saxony (wild pigs) and in 2021 also in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (wild and domestic pigs). German authorities will now be investigating how the disease has suddenly jumped to the southwest of the country. Given that no infected wild boar have been detected anywhere close to the outbreak, officials say they believe the virus must have entered the region via ‘human action’. ASF can be spread via contaminated vehicles or products.

- Speaking yesterday (26 May), Baden-Württemberg’s minister of food and rural affairs, Peter Hauk said teams would now step up monitoring efforts to see if the disease is present in wild boar.
“The state government of Baden-Württemberg has been preparing intensively for an outbreak of African swine fever for years. To this end, the ministry has defined an action plan for the prevention and control of African swine fever (ASF). "For this purpose, a permanent crisis management team was set up in the ministry, which has been meeting regularly for years, coordinates the preparations for an ASF outbreak in the country and was able to start work immediately yesterday," said Hauk.

- Since ASF reached eastern Germany in 2020, more than 3,000 cases have been detected in wild boar, along with four outbreaks in domestic pigs. This is the first case reported on a German pig farm so far this year. As the majority of German pigs are kept indoors on properties with high levels of biosecurity, ASF is unlikely to affect large numbers of commercially raised animals. The spread of the disease to the west of the country will be a concern however, not only in Germany but also in neighboring France, which is yet to record a single case of ASF.

- Prices for pigs in Germany fell sharply after ASF first appeared in the country, largely due to the closure of key Asian export markets to German pork. Hauk stressed that the disease poses no threat to humans and urged consumers to continue buying pork as normal.
"It's hitting the pig farmers very hard at the moment. Various measures have led to a continuous decline in pork sales. That's why I appeal to consumers, but above all to retailers: support the pig farmers and buy pork. There is no reason not to do this,” the minister stated.

May 27  - Ukraine's wartime spring crop sowing campaign nears its end (AgriCensus)

- Ukrainian wartime spring crop sowing campaign is approaching an end and has reached 12.64 million hectares, or 89% complete, as of May 26, according to the latest update from the country's agriculture ministry. Overall, Russia's ongoing invasion means that it will not be possible to sow about a third of the total typical area available to Ukrainian farmers, leaving a total area of up to 12 million hectares approximately. The reduction of the sown area was down to partial occupation of parts of Ukraine by Russian troops, close proximity of farmland to hostilities, impossibility of sowing due to landmines in fields and damaged ordonance, tanks and other material in the liberated territories.

At the same point last year, 94% of the planting was complete.

- The progress of the sowing campaign for sunflower was sluggish, however, adding just 2.4%, with the areas completed so far standing at 4.3 million ha or 66%, versus 94% in last year's pace.
- Finally, soybean planting reached the finish line with a 7.4 percentage point increase taking area to 1.1 million ha, or 90% of the planted area in 2021, against 95% last year.

- The first forecasts of the harvest are:
    wheat - 18 million tons (in 2021 - 32.2 million tons)
    corn - 25.7 million tons (in 2021 - 42.1 million tons)
    barley - 5.2 million tons (in 2021 - 9.4 million tons)
    other grain crops - 1.4 million tons (in 2021 - 2.3 million tons).

- That is, the total grain harvest in 2022 will be about 50.4 million tons compared to 86 million tons in 2021.

- Regarding oilseeds, the following harvest expectations are in 2022:
    sunflower - 10.6 million tons (in 2021 - 16.4 million tons)
    soybeans - 3.0 million tons (in 2021 - 3.5 million tons)
    rapeseed - 2.7 million tons (in 2021 - 2.9 million tons)

"As can be seen from the above data, soybeans and rapeseed show the lowest topics of gross harvest reduction. This is due to the relatively small weight of the crop combined with the high price of it, which facilitates logistical issues in exports. Therefore, some farmers have increased crops under these crops," said Svitlana Lytvyn, a Ukraine-based analyst at UCAB.
"The gross harvest will be reduced both due to sown areas and due to yields," Lytvyn said.

- At the same time, the yield is expected to be 10% lower than the average due to non-compliance with all technological procedures.
"Due to the inability to further export and lower prices for major crops in the domestic market, farmers do not have enough funds to purchase fertilizers, PPE and other components of high yields. The only exceptions are winter crops, which managed to feed in most areas before the war and there is expected to reduce yields by 5%. And the condition of winter crops is good now," she said.

May 26  - EU market pre-open comments (StoneX )
- One thing is for certain amongst all the uncertainty and conjecture regarding Ukrainian grain exports and Russia's hand in it and that is Russia are not proposing letting ships leave Ukrainian ports for the good of humanity. The current status seems to be that ships in port will be allowed to leave port. There does not appear to be pre-conditions to that. It may well be that bombing homes is acceptible, bombing ships of grain is not. So it may well be just getting collateral damage out of the way prior to a more destructive offensive. Who know. The ability to get vessels in and out freely I think is still as far away as ever and free flowing grain movements via ports will most likely have pre conditions, pre conditions Ukraine/the West will not likely be willing to concede.
- That all said, the longs have to rain in positions. Suggestions are Ukraine will adjust their rail guage to the EU spec. That will be years away. The long and short is this can just as easily be a consumers chance first chance in a while to buy a significant dip as a producers last chance to capture the best of the grain prices.
- Proteins a little slower to track lower and there may well be some spread unwinding coming into the mix, that is unwinding the long corn/short beans and unwinding the long wheat/short corn.

- India call their wheat crop at 99MMT, 6MMT exports.

May 26  - Indonesia issues domestic sales rules for palm oil companies, plans industry audit
Indonesia will determine palm oil producers' mandatory domestic sales volume based on their refining capacity and local demand for cooking oil, a trade ministry regulation document showed on Wednesday, as the government plans an industry audit. The world's top palm oil producer allowed the resumption of crude palm oil exports and its derivatives from Monday but put in place a policy of mandatory sales to the local market at a certain price level, known as a domestic market obligation (DMO), to secure the supply of the vegetable oil at home.

May 26  - China's COVID curbs cut soyoil demand, crimp soybean appetite

Plunging demand for soyoil in China is expected to cut consumption of the oilseed in the world's biggest user as lockdowns to prevent the spread of COVID have shuttered restaurants and canteens, according to traders and analysts. China is the world's top consumer of edible oils, with millions of restaurants guzzling about half of the country's roughly 17 million tonnes of soyoil, made from crushing soybeans, consumed each year to fry food.

May 26  - India has no immediate plan to lift wheat export ban, commerce minister says
India has no immediate plans to lift a ban on wheat exports, but will continue with deals which are done directly with other governments, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal told Reuters. The world's second biggest producer of wheat banned private overseas sales of the grain on May 14 after a scorching heat wave curtailed output and domestic prices hit a record high.

May 26  - Talk of grain corridors raises questions for Black Sea trade (AgriCensus)

- Talk of a possible unblocking of Ukrainian deep sea water ports intensified Wednesday after Russia said it is ready to discuss permitting ships carrying grain to leave Ukraine. But market participants remained skeptical that this will transpire. According to Russian news agency Interfax, Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said Russia is open to ensuring the opening of humanitarian corridors on certain conditions.
“We have repeatedly spoken out on this subject that solving the food problem requires a comprehensive approach, including the removal of sanctions restrictions that have been imposed on Russian exports and financial transactions,” Rudenko said.
“It also requires Ukraine to clear all ports where ships are docked, and Russia is ready to provide the necessary humanitarian passage, which it does every day,” he also said.

- Global grain and oilseed prices have soared to record highs on global markets since Russia invaded Ukraine late February, effectively blocking exports from Ukrainian ports. Ukraine supplies some 10% of the world’s wheat, 13% of its barley, 15% of its corn and more than half of its sunflower oil. Rudenko’s statement comes after Russian authorities said they had opened the port at Mariupol, which is now under Russian control, and had approved the foreign vessels that have been stuck there to leave. According to Marine Traffic, however, only one foreign vessel is still in Mariupol. The other vessel that had been due to move wheat from Ukraine to Turkey has not been on the radar for the last 85 days; it is not clear if the crew is still there given that the city has been subjected to heavy shelling since the war started.

- Market sources were unconvinced by Rudenko’s statement, noting that the Russian authorities said they are only ready to discuss green corridors for grain exports if the sea is cleared of mines. Clearing mines would indeed make it easier for vessels to leave Ukraine but it would also open up access to inland Ukraine for Russian troops.
“I would be very surprised if they themselves open the ports without forceful influence on them,” one trader based in Ukraine said.
“In the very first days of the war, I immediately realized that this was their main lever of pressure. I can't even imagine how they would give it up,” he added.

- Another trader could not see how exports could resume, he said, because the question of safety and compliance with agreements remains unanswered. Still, milling wheat futures fell sharply on open at Euronext exchange in Paris. Market sources dismissed this as speculative moves, however.
“Honestly, it's speculation. Talks about a green corridor, the release of vessels in Mariupol - but how much can it really help the export? It's hopes, nothing firm,” one Europe-based trader said.

- September milling wheat was trading at €404.75/mt as of 1330 CET, down by €5.75 from Tuesday’s close, while December dipped below €400/mt to trade at €397.50/mt as of the same time.
“To me, nothing new, but seems this is making the market move,” a second Europe-based trader added.
- Euronext rapeseed futures were also down on the day, with the front August contract hitting a low of €800/mt, €16.75/mt lower than Tuesday’s settlement.  The August contract was trading at €805/mt as of just before 1800 CET, while November was down €11/mt at €799/mt.

May 25  - EU Market Pre Open Comments ( StoneX )
- Wheat markets leading lower, I would say there is a lot of psychological pressure on wheat prices with spreads to corn exceptionally high, a very ugly double top on the July CME wheat chart and nervousness around the growing rhetoric around the EU and UN trying to navigate a way to navigate vessels into and out of Ukrainian ports.
- This morning reports are that the Russians are considering allowing humanitarian corridors for grain exports from Ukraine, the when's and how’s are still unknown but its not the news the bulls are likely to be comfortable sustain their longs against. No doubt this story has twists and turns to come but its a step forward, the fat lady and all that.
- An East/West divide in terms of rainfall in the coming week, Eastern Europe gets good accumulations, Western Europe misses out.
- Debate ongoing about French wheat production but EU overall looks destined for a crop that for sure will be smaller than last year. Just how much less is the question.
- If this is the beginning of the end to the great wheat rally of 2022 then puts spreads will be the least riskiest way to position for a price correction lower. We are busy building cover for 2022 and even 2023 in the form of OTM puts and put spreads for producers let us know.

May 25 - Ukraine's embattled farmers running on empty as world faces food crisis
After making it through the spring planting season, sometimes with the help of bulletproof vests and helmets, Ukraine's farmers are facing another challenge – finding enough diesel for the harvest to come. The war with Russia cut fuel supplies just as farmers stepped up work for the spring season and they have lost about 85% of their normal supplies since the conflict started on Feb. 24, farmers, fuel distributors and analysts say.

May 25 - Food crisis fuels fears of protectionism compounding shortages
A growing world food crisis is precipitating protectionist moves by countries which are likely to compound the problem and could lead to a wider trade war, business leaders and policymakers at the World Economic Forum said. In a sign of the escalating squeeze on food supplies and rising prices, a government source told Reuters that India could restrict sugar exports for the first time in six years to prevent a surge in domestic prices.

May 24  - EU pre market Comments ( StoneX )
- The US spring wheat plantings are running very slowly thanks to cold and wet conditions. The slow spring planting extends into Canada for the same reasons. US corn and beans getting planted close enough to normal in aggregate to call it normal.
- Lots of commentary on the seasonals in corn and beans that lean bearish. Consumers are hoping and praying that seasonal weakness into harvest is a feature for harvest 2023.
- EU yield ideas were pulled lower by MARS and I do wonder have we forgotten about the fertilizer crisis that engulfed our thoughts a few months ago. Is there a sting in the tail for yields. Its hard to keep up with who is or isnt exporting these.
- India restricting sugar exports to 10MMT, while Indonesia is lifting export restrictions they are imposing what I see to be essentially price caps on domestic prices. Whatever the shenanigans palmoil futures up 2% after 3 strong days in a row.
- The strength in the euro can not be under-estimated and we are back above 1.07 and the weaker dollar will be a support to CME markets.
- Russia and Ukraine appear to be in something of a stalemate and I would suspect both parties want the conflict to go away at this stage but neither agreeing on what that end looks like.

May 24  - Indonesia further outlines DMO policy (AgriCensus)

- The Indonesian government has provided greater detail on its the Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) and Domestic Price Obligation (DPO) schemes – three days after announcing that the policy would be reinstated upon the withdrawal of the palm oil export ban. During the transitional period, the DMO scheme will require that the ratio of palm oil supplies reserved for local consumption vs exports will be 1:3, according to an official release published by Indonesia’s trade ministry on Monday. In addition, only companies that have not applied for subsidies on palm olein that have been delivered to local markets during the ban will be allowed to apply for export permits.

- To qualify as an exporter, the company must have proof that they have met the terms of the DMO before they can export. The DMO and the regulations for its application will also change month to month.

- The Indonesian government said earlier it is looking to set a DMO amount of 10 million mt of cooking oil, with 8 million mt set for domestic consumption and reserves of 2 million mt.
“This is likely to firm buying sentiment, especially for June-July cargoes,” a regional broker said.

- Earlier this year, in a bid to ensure local supplies of cooking oil, the government set a 30% DMO through which palm oil exporters were required to retain a portion of their export volumes for supply into the domestic market before any export permits could be approved. This was subsequently replaced with an increase in the export duty for palm oil on March 17.

- Crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange traded higher on Monday, with the benchmark August-delivery contract closing 2.6% higher at MYR 6,268 ringgit/mt ($1,428/mt) at the end of the afternoon trading session as the market responded to Indonesia’s announcement.

May 24 - Indonesia has no plan to reduce palm oil in biodiesel mix -minister
Indonesia has no plans to reduce the percentage of palm oil in biodiesel below its current level of 30% in order to ensure the country's energy supply, its minister for economic affairs, Airlangga Hartarto, told Reuters on Monday. "With palm oil, we reduce our dependency on oil. And if now we compare the price of palm oil and the price of energy, you have to (subsidise) more to energy. So the issue will be energy security," Hartarto said in an interview.

May 24 - Avoid a potential misread on U.S. planting pace in delayed states - Braun
U.S. corn planting is running at the second-slowest pace in more than a quarter-century and spring wheat planting is the slowest on record, and the full acreage potential has rightfully come into question. Excessively wet and cool weather has plagued the northern U.S. Plains this spring, putting farmers in North Dakota, northern Minnesota and parts of South Dakota far behind schedule.

May 23  - Indonesia set to resume palm oil exports but policy uncertainty persists
Indonesia is due to resume exports of palm oil on Monday after a ban of more than three weeks, but industry traders and companies were awaiting details on accompanying rules to secure domestic supplies of the edible oil to control cooking oil prices. The Southeast Asian country, the world's biggest palm oil producer, halted exports of palm oil from April 28 in an attempt to bring down soaring local prices of cooking oil, rattling global edible oil markets already struggling with sunflower oil supply shortages due to the war in Ukraine.

May 23  - Funds post record soymeal selloff but corn views don't budge - Braun
Speculators continued selling Chicago-traded soybean meal at a hot pace last week as prices dipped near four-month lows, but they continue carrying a hefty long position in corn. According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, money managers slashed their net long in CBOT soybean meal futures and options to 35,923 contracts through May 17 from 52,314 a week earlier.

May 23  - Kenya to allow duty-free import of 540,000 T of maize - finance minister
Kenya's has authorised the importation of 540,000 tonnes of maize duty-free until August to forestall a looming shortfall, the finance minister said. The East African nation, which only allows maize imports in special circumstances, is facing an acute drought in some areas.

May 21  - Indonesia clarifies end of export ban, reinstates DMO/DPO scheme (AgriCensus)
- The Indonesian government has provided further clarity on its plans to withdraw its palm oil export ban - a day after President Joko Widodo's original announcement revealing that the ban would end on May 23. Speaking at a press briefing on Friday, Indonesian chief economics minister Airlangga Hartarto said that, together with the end of the ban, the government will reinstate the Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) and Domestic Price Obligation (DPO) scheme to ensure continued supply of domestic cooking oil. The government had earlier this year set a 30% DMO through which palm oil exporters were required to retain a portion of their export volumes for supply into the domestic market before any export permits could be approved. This was revoked on March 17 and replaced with an increase in the export duty for palm oil.

- The government is looking to set a DMO amount of 10 million mt of cooking oil, with 8 million mt for domestic consumption and reserves of 2 million mt, Airlangga also noted.
“The Ministry of Trade will determine the amount of DMO to be met by producers,” Airlangga said.
“Producers who do not fulfill the DMO obligations or do not distribute to the public as determined by the government will be sanctioned according to the specified rules," he added.

- On top of the DMO, the government will reissue the supply and price control arrangements (DPO) to ensure the availability of raw material for cooking oil production. The DPO for crude palm oil and palm olein was set at 9,300 rupiah/kg ($0.630) and 10,300 rupiah/kg ($0.70) respectively in February this year. Further details of the policies should be disclosed before the ban ends.

- On top of reinstating the DMO and DPO, Airlangga also announced that the state food procurement agency Bulog will be assigned to set up a buffer stock of cooking oil at 10% of domestic demand. While the president’s announcement yesterday brought some relief to the market, the added clarification implies that Indonesian supply remains restricted and subject to domestic conditions.

- Crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange were trading higher after retreating yesterday, with the benchmark August-delivery contract closing 3.7% higher at MYR 6,295 ringgit/mt ($1,431/mt) at the end of the early trading session as the market absorbed the announcement from Indonesia.

May 20  - Ukrainian grain producers scramble for alternative storage amid high stocks (AgriCensus)

- High stocks and a severe shortage of traditional storage options are forcing Ukrainian grain producers to seek alternative means to store their material ahead of the start of the new marketing year, market sources said Thursday. Based on information on storage capacities in eight of the country's regions, Ukraine could face a storage shortfall of up to 20 million mt because of damage to the domestic silo network from the war that started late in February or that are now under Russian control.

- Pre-war domestic storage capacity was an estimated 57-60 million mt, according to market observers. There was a significant carryover of stocks from the 2021/22 marketing year when Ukraine harvested a record crop. But logistical issues prevented export of this material; and on top of this there are expectations of a decent crop in 2022/23.

- These factors have forced Ukrainian producers to seek non-traditional storage methods at inland silos, including using silo bags. This storage method was used in Ukraine on an extremely small scale before the start of the war but demand for it has spiked recently to make up for the acute lack of available storage space. This has driven the price of silo bags higher by 50-60% since the start of the war - prices vary from €680 for 60-meter bags to €990 for 90-meter bags. A 75-meter silo bag can store roughly 230-250 mt of corn.

- As well as the increasing costs, this storage method is complex and less convenient in loading for transport, sources said.It requires additional knowledge and experience for proper bagging and control procedures, as well as renting or purchasing the necessary equipment, to avoid loss of quality and as a result loss of crop and money.
"To calculate the storage cost you should consider the following expenses: 1. The price of the silo bag itself; 2. Cost of bagging and unbagging; 3. Storage period; 4. Cost of security providing. 5. Lost profit from a field," BZK Grain Alliance AB deputy CEO and chief commercial officer Tahir Musayev said.

- Grain can be stored for up to eight months with no critical loss of quality in silo bags, depending on various quality parameters, including moisture levels at the time when the grain is bagged. Most Ukrainian storage contracts are for 12 months although grain is typically sold and shipped at a fast pace.

May 20  - EU pre Opening Market Comments ( Stone X )
- I would say more than a few palmoil traders have ripped their hair out with the Indonesian government unable to stick to any sort of plan. Indonesia had a requirement for producers to be forced to sell locally, then went for a nice clean export ban, then decide to remove the export ban and reimpose the requirement to sell locally ahead of export.
- The gap lower on palmoil futures almost fully closed overnight.
- Beanoil following suit. The one certainty it seems with Indonesia is uncertainty as they say.
- French crop ratings deteriorating further with the wheat crop rated 73% of the crop good or excellent versus 82% last week. The maize crop is all but fully planted now and rated 93% good/excellent with near record heat for
the time of year. Still a chance for late rains and a cooler June to keep yields respectable but the EU probably has lost a few MMT of overall production in the 10days to next week.
- US winter wheat crops are mixed but overall bad.
- So much rests on Canada and Russia and if the UN can get Russia to unlock the door to Ukraine’s main large vessel ports.
- While the EU grain production outlook is deteriorating and the chances of producing a volume close to last year are all but extinguished now we have to consider the prices we are already trading.

May 20 - Indonesia to impose local sales rule when palm oil exports restart
Indonesia will impose a domestic sales requirement for palm oil, to shore up local supplies of cooking oil when the world's biggest producer of the edible oil reopens exports next week, the country's economics minister said on Friday. President Joko Widodo has announced Indonesia will lift the export ban from Monday after imposing the policy on April 28 in a bid to control high domestic cooking oil prices.

May 20 - China's April soybean imports from Brazil up from March as delayed cargoes arrive
China's soybean imports from Brazil in April surged from the previous month, customs data showed on Friday, with the arrival of delayed cargoes. China, the world's top importer of soybeans, received 6.3 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil in April, up 120% from 2.87 million tonnes in March, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.

May 19  - UKRAINE DAILY CASH PRICES (AgriCensus)
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought destruction and carnage to the heart of the Black Sea region and struck hard at the heart of one of the world’s most productive regions.
- Fastmarket Agricensus commits to publishing on a daily basis the bids, offers, indicative levels or other cash trading indications on any basis and geography that relates to any of the vital markets that have strong ties with Ukraine.

Thursday
Seller Ukrainian corn $290/mt FOB Reni, May.
Seller Ukrainian corn $260/mt FOB Kiliia, May-June.
Seller Ukrainian corn $260-290/mt DAP EU borders, May-June.

Seller Ukrainian 11.5-12.5% wheat $345-350/mt FOB Reni/Izmail.
Seller Ukrainian 11.5% wheat $450/mt versus bid at around $442/mt CIF Egypt, freight at around $100/mt.  

Seller Ukrainian sunoil $1,760/mt FOB Reni, June.
Seller Ukrainian sunoil $1,700/mt DAP Bulgaria, May-June.
Seller Ukrainian sunoil $1,950-2,000/mt CIF Turkey, June.
Buyer Ukrainian sunoil $1,740-1,750/mt DAP Bulgaria, May-June.
Buyer Ukrainian sunoil $1,450/mt DAP Poland, May-June.

Seller Ukrainian sunseeds $760/mt DAP Hungary, June.
Buyer Ukrainian sunseeds $755/mt DAP Bulgaria, May-June.
Seller Ukrainian sunseeds $895/mt CIF Marmara, freight at around $82/mt, May-June.
Buyer Ukrainian sunmeal $260-270/mt DAP Ukraine-Poland border, June-July.
Buyer Ukrainian sunmeal $463/mt CIF China, June-July.

Market views
- The number of Ukrainian sunoil offers was limited given the difficulties with logistics, despite some of the suppliers still managing to deliver the cargoes under the existing contracts.
- May-June sunoil volumes were offered at prices starting at

$1,760/mt FOB Reni,

$1,700/mt DAP Bulgaria,

and $1,950/mt CIF Turkey,

with neither FOB nor CIF basis bids reported during the day.

May 19  - EU Morning Comments ( Stone X)
- US winter wheat crop tour calling for S. Kansas wheat yields some 20% below average, psychologically this is important, materially less so.
- French production ideas heading for the same level of decline, this is both psychologically and materially important. - On the flip side, what France and Kansas are losing, it appears Russia is making up in equal measure with production ideas now mid to high 80's. The world of course would prefer to see the growth in production in the latter rather than the former. Russia looks like it will have the means to have record exports, whether buyers have the resilience to stay away remains to be seen.
- The biodiesel market doing its usual burry its head in the sand routine whenever we hear of Germany scaling back their use of food based feedstock for biodiesel. No biodiesel trades and rapeseed down €40/tonne the result.
- Chinese import data was mixed but not great but what the market really didn’t like was the poor revenue numbers from US retailers (target). It seems the consumer is now actually in real terms pairing back consumption. Whether this is just flat screen TV's or doughnuts is a little less clear.
- From a feed demand perspective it probably means less steak, more chicken and that does impact feed demand. In the US that’s corn, in the EU that will be wheat.

May 19 - U.N. chief in talks on restoring Ukraine grain exports amid global food crisis
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Wednesday that he is in "intense contact" with Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, the United States and the European Union in an effort to restore Ukrainian grain export as a global food crisis worsens. "I am hopeful, but there is still a way to go," said Guterres, who visited Moscow and Kyiv late last month. "The complex security, economic and financial implications require goodwill on all sides."

May 19 - Russia's wheat exports seen rising in new season amid large crop, stockpile
Russia, one of the world's largest wheat exporters, will export more of the grain in the new July-June marketing season due to a large harvest and stockpile, the IKAR consultancy said on Wednesday, raising its estimate for the wheat crop. The country's exports are crucial for global wheat supply, especially in the upcoming season as Ukraine's Black Sea ports remain blocked after Moscow sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24.

May 18  - Export of Ukrainian sunseeds reached an 11-year high, due to high buyer prices (AgriCensus)
- Sunseed exports from Ukraine have reached an 11-year high since the beginning of the season, after lockdowns of ports and a decline in sunoil exports led to lower demand from local crushers and prices for sunseeds in the local market, prompting sellers to boost their export sales. According to customs statistics, from May 1 to May 15, Ukraine exported 140,071 tons of sunflower seeds, bringing total exports since the beginning of the marketing year to a record 311,711 tons. That is already almost 39% higher than sunflower exports in the 2020/21 season.

- However, the volumes reported by customs do not reflect the exact volumes transshipped, as there remain huge queues at the borders and along the Danube River which are delaying physical delivery.
“How many will go for export - I can’t guess, the queues at the borders are long,” one trader based in Ukraine told Agricensus.

Export and Prices
- Sunflower prices range from UAH13,000/mt ($374/mt) to UAH16,000/mt ($460/mt) CPT for local crushers, depending on region and oil content, with maximum price levels from UAH15,000/mt ($431/mt) for crushers in the western regions.
- In western Ukraine, sunflower is offered at prices up to UAH25,000/mt ($719/mt) CPT.
- However, European buyers' prices for Ukrainian sunflower are more than 1.5 times higher and are falling within the range of $700/mt DAP Romania and up to $750/mt DAP Bulgaria, while Turkish buyers are willing to pay up to $905-908/mt CIF Mersin.
- The competition of Ukrainian sunseeds with local sunseeds in Bulgaria and Romania is increasing due to a significant difference in price. Offers from Bulgarian farmers come in at prices ranging from $850/mt EXW or $880-900/mt CPT, while Ukrainian sunflower is available at prices ranging from $750-770/mt CPT.
"Due to the increase in the flow of Ukrainian origin sunseeds, local plants are not ready anymore to pay a significant premium to local sunflower sellers," Petar Dimitrov, senior broker and founder of Agricore told Agricensus.
- According to market estimates, the main buyers of sunseeds are Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Turkey, and other countries, which in principle reflects the geography of buyers in previous seasons. Exports of sunflower from Ukraine are currently mostly carried out by trucks, via ferries, as well as through railway and other maritime infrastructure.
- According to the customs statistics service, as of May 16, 35% of sunflower seeds were exported by trucks, 7% by rail, 21%, and 38% by sea and ferry, respectively.
- At the end of the season, the total market estimates of sunflower exports by market participants fall in a wide range, from 550,000 tons to up to 2 million tons. According to USDA expectations, sunflower exports from Ukraine by the end of the 2021/22 season will amount to 350,000 tons.

Ukrainian sunseeds stocks
- Market analysts estimate the stock levels for sunseeds at the beginning of May in Ukraine-controlled and liberated regions at the level of 5-6 million mt.
- Active hostilities in the East (Luhansk, Donetsk regions) and the South of Ukraine (Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv regions), as well as the active export of Ukrainian agricultural products, including sunflower, from the occupied territories to Russia, will lead to irretrievable losses of sunflower in the range of 1.2-1.4 million mt, according to APK-Inform analysts.
- Market sources based in Ukraine estimate that sunflower stocks by the end of the 2021/22 marketing year will be in the range of 4-5 million mt.
“Operating factories are running at minimum capacity, given the problems with the export of finished products,” the Ukrainian crusher said.
- According to USDA estimates, sunflower stocks by the end of the season will amount to 4.55 million tons, which is a record value for the Ukrainian market.

May 18 - Ukraine sea access vital for grain despite land efforts - minister
Ukraine is making progress in developing grain exports over land to the EU but will need to regain sea access blocked by Russia's invasion to avert a worsening crisis for food importing countries, its deputy economy minister said on Tuesday. Administrative and logistical delays were being resolved at transit points at Ukraine's western borders with European Union states, notably for rail freight, Deputy Economy Minister Taras Kachka told the GrainCom conference in Geneva.

May 18 - About 300,000 T of wheat bought by Egypt stranded in Ukraine - trade
About 300,000 tonnes of Ukrainian wheat booked by Egypt's state grains buyer for delivery in February and March is yet to be shipped, with one cargo stuck in port and four others still to be loaded, four traders said. Egypt's General Authority For Supply Commodities (GASC) has granted an extension to secure the cargoes but is not offering trading companies any force majeure release from contractual obligations, according to traders.

May 18  - EU Pre Open Comments ( Stone X )
- Global wheat prices in the hands of the Gods, CME wheat in the hands of the bots.
- German gov. drafting legistaltion to phase-out of crop based biofuels by 2030 and starting with reducing the cap from 4.4% to 2.5% for 2023. In part this in line with expectations but still dampens demand ideas and the pressure on other memeber states and countries (US) to follow suit may well grow. The wheat market focused on the will they wont they export wheat from India, the currrent prognosses being they kinda will. It appears current licensed export will get out and the 500kt committed to Egypt will. So something in the order of 5-6MMT before likely reverting to net import status.
- Climatologists modelling that the extreme heat they are facing currently has gone from a 1:300 year event to 1:3 year probability.
- Ukrainian grain moving slowly but more freely to ports in Poland and Romania.
- Regional consumers happy with the price pressure but get a sense that not all traders holding local longs are super excited about the arrival of the cheaper grains.
- US crop tour ongoing, is it just me or those wheat crops dont look too bad? Chatting to my brother and he is "pushing" the crops a little harder at these prices and more comfortable with paying up for fertiiser. We are probably in closing stages of supply destruction and look for narrative to change to demand destruction at some point.

May 18 - India to allow wheat shipments awaiting customs clearance
India will allow overseas wheat shipments awaiting customs clearance, the government said on Tuesday, introducing some leeway for overseas sales after it banned exports of the staple on Saturday. India will also allow wheat exports to Egypt, the government said in a statement.

May 18 - Crop Watch: Strong planting last week though not all hands on deck - Braun
Last week was the busiest yet for spring planting among the U.S. Crop Watch producers, but not everyone was going full speed. Fifteen of 22 subject fields are now planted, including eight within the last week.

May 18  - Australian rapeseed 2022/23 output forecast at 5.2 mn: AOF
- Australian canola production for the 2022/23 marketing year is expected to reach 5.2 million mt, declining 17% from the record 2021/22 harvest, according to the latest estimates from the Australian Oilseed Federation (AOF).

- The reduction in annual output for the oilseed, which is often referred to as rapeseed in European markets, represents a return to more normal production levels following on the exceptional 2021/22 harvest which the Federation estimates at 6.3 million mt. According to the AOF, expectations for the 2022/23 harvest are support by an estimated 12% year-on-year increase in canola area planted. Conditions have been mostly favourable so far in the season with timely rainfall across most planting areas of New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia over the first three months of 2022.

- Despite instances of saturated paddocks and winter waterlogging across areas of New South Wales and Victoria, favourable conditions are expected to persist across the east coast through the remainder of the season.
“Across the east coast, favourable seasonal conditions may continue into mid- to late- winter, with a weakening La Nina persisting longer than previously forecast,” the AOF said.

- In contrast, South Australia remains dry with recent rains falling outside dedicated canola growing areas. On the whole, crop expectations remain positive given the mostly favourable growing conditions coupled with the increase in growing area. Amid expectations of a stronger Canadian canola harvest this year, the Australian Oilseed Federation is forecasting the gross value of Australian canola production for the 2022-23 to reach $3.5 billion, the second-highest figure on record.

May 18  - Biofuels consumption set to surge in Europe
Consumption of biofuels in the EU among three key sectors -- road, marine and aviation -- is set to surge further with major industry players advocating for long-term mandates and more ambitious targets in a bid to secure investment in infrastructure as well as energy independence.

May 17 - Wheat importers in Asia scramble for supplies after Indian export ban
Wheat importers in Asia were scrambling to find new sources of supply on Monday after India banned exports of the grain at the weekend in a bid to keep a lid on soaring domestic prices, trade sources told Reuters. Importers, especially those in Asia, were banking on wheat from India, the world's second-biggest producer, after exports from the Black Sea region plunged following Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.

May 17 - NOPA April soybean crush below expectations at 169.788 mln bushels
The U.S. soybean crush dropped by more than expected in April, while the end-of-month soyoil supply thinned to the lowest in seven months, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday. NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 169.788 million bushels of soybeans last month, down 6.6% from the 181.759 million bushels crushed in March but up 5.9% from the April 2021 crush of 160.310 million bushels.

May 17  - India sells 500k mt to Egypt on state-to-state basis following export ban (AgriCensus)
- India has reportedly sold 500,000 mt of wheat to Egypt, hot on the heals of Friday’s announcement of a ban on exports with immediate effect. The Indian government banned commercial wheat exports late Friday while leaving open the possibility to make government-to-government deals. Egyptian authorities have been in talks with India to exempt exports to Egypt from the ban, and the potential sale of half a million wheat was said to have been agreed, according to Egyptian supply minister Aly Moselhy quoted in the media.

- At the same time, Ahmed El-Attar, head of the Central Administration of Plant Quarantine at Egypt’s agriculture ministry was quoted as saying Saturday that Indian wheat supplied to Egypt “fully complies with the required standards.” Meanwhile, the first vessel of Indian wheat nominated for Egypt has not yet left the port, with trade sources familiar with the matter saying it is waiting for additional checks by the government on the opened letter of credit.

- The Indian government has restricted the new private export sales of wheat, in expectation of a drop in production following a heatwave and to ensure domestic food security. Global markets have reacted sharply to the news, with futures trading sharply higher on the CME and Euronext exchanges. Demand for Indian wheat has been strong for almost all of the past year given its relatively cheap price, but it increased further when Russia invaded Ukraine, effectively blocking exports from the country. Almost half of the amount potentially available for export from India has already been sold, with officials putting that level at 4.3 million mt versus a total target at 10 million mt expressed by the ministry of commerce.

- India has also said that all existing deals with an already opened letter of credit would not be subject to the ban, along with trades on a governmental level.

May 17 - India bans wheat exports, adding to global supply crunch
As much as 2-3 million mt of wheat for the flour and feed industry is at stake, traders said.

May 16 - India bans wheat exports as heat wave hurts crop, domestic prices soar
India banned wheat exports on Saturday days after saying it was targeting record shipments this year, as a scorching heat wave curtailed output and domestic prices hit a record high. The government said it would still allow exports backed by already issued letters of credit and to countries that request supplies "to meet their food security needs".

May 16 - Funds stage sizable soy, soymeal selloff ahead of USDA data -Braun
Speculators have been easing massively bullish bets in Chicago-traded grain and oilseed futures in recent weeks, though they have been hesitant to add too many shorts due to unprecedented price levels and continuing uncertainties over global supplies. That sentiment may have been confirmed late last week with the U.S. government’s first supply and demand outlooks for the upcoming year, which showed stocks remaining relatively narrow through mid-2023, especially for wheat.

May 16 - Egypt says government purchases exempted from India’s wheat exports ban
Any agreements by Egypt's government to purchase Indian wheat will not be affected by an export ban announced by New Delhi, Egypt's supply minister said on Sunday. "For India, we are talking with them on the basis of a government agreement. The ban exempts governments including the government of Egypt," minister Ali Moselhy said at a news conference.

May 16 - Romanian port races against clock to move Ukrainian grain to global markets
Pressed into emergency service by the blockade of Ukraine's seaports by Russian invaders, neighbouring Romania is racing against time to move Ukrainian grain to global markets before the next harvest triggers bottlenecks.  Ukraine, the world's fourth largest grain exporter, has been forced by Russia's invasion to re-route shipments by train via its western border into neighbouring Poland, Slovakia and Romania or on barges through its small Danube river ports.

 

 

May 14  - Ukraine warns of headwinds as spring crop sowing reaches 70% complete (AgriCensus)
- Ukrainian farmers are continuing to sow spring crops, with progress now reaching 70% complete, but authorities across the country are warning that a shortage of resources - fertilizers, crop protection agents and rapidly dwindling fuel stocks - will likely slow progress.
- Alongside that, the limited prospects for storing or marketing the crop are also weighing on prospects for the upcoming season amid ongoing fighting with invading Russian forces. In the Ivano-Frankivsk region, in the west of the country, the course of spring field work was largely suspended due to a lack of fuel, said Stepan Vintonovich, deputy director of the department of agro-industrial development.
“Agriculture is not included in the list of critical infrastructure, so the equipment is refueled for farmers on an occasional basis. The state promises to correct the situation after May 15, but spring time is lost,” Vintonovich said.
“Moreover, due to the lack of rain, there are also enough negative weather factors. Spring crops in our region have only just begun to emerge,” he continued.
- On the other hand, farmers can safely use the land thanks to the efforts of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in clearing ordnance and mines - although hazards remain. Russian forces have been forced to retreat, with only long-range weapons now able to reach the fields.
"Ukrainian services are working quickly, at present there is enough power, although at first when shells were fired at it was problematic," Yevgeny Sitnichenko, the head of the Kryvyi Rih military administration in the southeast of the country, said.
- The Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine has not given a forecast for the grain harvest for 2022, but has said it expects the area under crops could fall by 20% this year due to fighting with Russian troops in many regions. The assessment is based on calculations of the sown area in the zone of occupation or active hostilities, the current dynamics of the sown area in the territories controlled by Ukraine, as well as the reduction in crop yields due to a lack of fertilizers and plant protection products.

May 13  - Euronext wheat futures break €400/mt barrier on bullish Wasde (AgriCensus)
- European milling wheat futures finally broke through resistance at €400/mt Thursday, following the release of the USDA’s monthly Wasde report, with all four front contracts topping the psychologically important mark.
- September 2022 hit a high of €416/mt, up €13/mt on the previous day’s settle, before easing back to €413.50/mt by 1800 CET.
- December 2022 rose as high as €409.25/mt, March 2023 €405.75/mt and May 2023 €400.75/mt, up €12.5/mt, €12.25/mt and €11/mt respectively.
One trader called the move historic, adding “and it’s not over yet!”

- Thursday’s Wasde predicted reduced supplies, exports, domestic use stocks for wheat in the US, and higher prices in its first forecasts for the 2022/2023 marketing year.
“US 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3%, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest,” it said.
“Total 2022/23 domestic use is projected down 1% on lower feed and residual use more than offsetting higher food use. Exports are projected at 775 million bushels, down from revised 2021/22 exports and would be the lowest since 1971/72.”

- It put Russian wheat production for 2022/2023 at 80 million mt, up from 75 million mt in 2021/22 and exports at 39 million mt, up from 33 million mt, while for Ukraine it predicted production at 20.5 million mt, 11.5 million lower than in 2021/22 and exports at 10 million mt, down from 19 million.
“They cut quite strongly the US crop, but I am surprised by the high numbers they released for Ukraine and Russian exports,” another market source said.
“Even 10 million mt for just wheat seems high to me for Ukraine.”

- US wheat futures also climbed following the report, with July and September Chicago SRW trading 30 c/bu higher at $11.466/bu and $11.502/bu respectively as of almost 1300 ET.
- Kansas KC wheat as up 43-44 c/bu at $12.446/bu for July and $12.466/bu for September.

May 13 - Strategie Grains cuts 2021/22 EU wheat export forecast on Russia flows
Consultancy Strategie Grains on Thursday lowered its monthly forecast for European Union soft wheat exports in 2021/22, saying Russian shipments had held up better than expected in the face of Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. The French firm now sees EU soft wheat exports for the season that ends in June at 29.9 million tonnes, 1.5 million tonnes - or 4.8% - below its April forecast.

May 13 - Brazil arabica coffee could invert cycle for larger 2023 crop
Due to frosts and a drought last year that damaged this year's production, traders believe Brazil's arabica coffee crop could see an inversion in its production cycle that would result in a larger harvest in 2023. Arabica coffee trees alternate years of higher and lower production, a natural development as trees get stressed after high fruit loads and produce less in the following season.

May 12  - EU pre Open Comments  - StoneX
- Whats 5% moves between friends? The euro breaking below 1.05 overnight, the strong dollar then in turn giving the oil bulls pause for thought.
- Colleagues in the dairy side saying demand to China is well down.
- Soymeal weakness more talked about as curshers run 24/7/365 to make the most from the high value of oil. Meal demand struggling to keep pace.
- China remains the a key element of demand as it always has been. It can be very sticky and when it decides it wants something price is apparently no object. When the demand smells of easing it causes a lot of anxiety. Balance of probabilities China will be an engine of demand growth but its the undulations in-between that cause the concerns. - Weather remains concerning on several fronts, no killer blows but lots of bruises at the moment. French yield ideas are bruised with dryness. US winter wheat yields bruised with dryness too. India bruised, N. US/Canada bruised with wet springs. Brazils corn bruised. Russian wheat and flour continues to trade.
- EU nat gas prices volatile but ultimately well supported with anxieties about flows of Russian gas across Ukraine.
- Drying costs for grains look set to stay high. Local and regional logistics difficult.
- Near term looks like French crops may pick up a little more rain than expected.

May 12 - Indonesia seeks to balance international, local palm oil demand -official
Indonesia is seeking a balance between capitalising on high global palm oil prices while ensuring food at home is affordable, a senior government official said on Wednesday, amid the country's ongoing ban on exports of the vegetable oil. The Southeast Asian nation, the world's top palm oil producer, has since April 28 halted exports of crude palm oil and refined products in order to control soaring prices of cooking oil at home.

May 12 - Dreyfus sees larger Brazil shift to ethanol, warns of sugar shortage
Global commodities trader Louis Dreyfus projected on Wednesday that Brazilian mills will divert a larger-than-expected amount of sugarcane to ethanol production due to high energy prices, causing a reduction in global sugar supplies. Dreyfus sugar director Enrico Biancheri said during the Citi ISO Datagro sugar conference in New York that Brazil's center-south (CS) mills would produce only 29 million tonnes of sugar in the new season that started in April, a view that would be in the low end of analysts' estimates so far.

May 11  - Ship entry into the Sulina canal restricted in order to offload pressure (AgriCensus)
- The agency overseeing operations along a key Black Sea canal has temporarily halted vessels moving towards the key Ukrainian and Romanian ports of Reni, Izmail or Giurgiulesti amid a huge backlog. The Sulina Canal has emerged as a key link in the supply chain moving Ukrainian agricultural produce via the River Danube towards Black Sea export facilities and has reported a major increase in activity as a result.

- That has forced the canal's administrators to temporarily limit vessels going into Reni, Izmail and Giurgiulesti ports won't be allowed to enter the canal in order to prevent further queues building up amid a lack of pilots available to guide ships along the canal's length.
“As before, the Sulina administration decided in yesterday's meeting that they will not allow more than three ships waiting in the anchorage at nautical mile 36, three more at nautical mile 44, three at Reni roads and two at Giurgiulesti roads,” a note seen by Agricensus said.
“In order to avoid blockage, ships going to Reni/Giurgiulesti will not enter Sulina canal until these areas are clear; the same will be applied for Izmail port,” the note said, explaining that one stage already has four ships waiting and no further will be admited until the number drops below three.

- The ship tracking service Marine Traffic showed there are already up to 70 vessels waiting for the entrance to be re-opened. Sulina canal links the shallow water Ukrainian and Romanian ports with the Black Sea, and has proved to be unready for the sharp increase in product flows from Ukrainian ports amid the blockade of Ukraine's deep sea ports after Russia started the war.  The congestion also comes along with an ongoing restriction of grain wagons moving into the port of Reni by rail.

- Thus, situations are starting to happen where a vessel has already arrived into port but the grain that it is expecting to load has not yet reached the terminal, thus bringing even more delays. At the same time, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has again urged the international community to stop the Russian blockade of the deep seaports of Ukraine citing the threat to world food supply.

May 11  - EU Morning Comments - StoneX
- Diesel and wheat. These two markets are the two markets that supply remains hugely concerning for the global trade of...everything.
- Logistics are becoming more and more difficult and there is a vicous circle of rising costs, leading to wage inflation (especially for truckers) that leads to further price gains and round and round we go.
- Wheat is trading record values, record premiums to corn. Indian Durum wheat trading to Turkey I hear. Not much behind it though it seems. Had long conversation yesterday on feed demand. It was pointed out that maize still "cheap" even in the absence of Ukraine. There were large volumes landing prior to the conflict so are we just living off those supplies and then that goes with lower demand to get us through the gap? I think July onwards is the big pinch, all the old hedged/cheap inventories are going to be largely consumed and the hand-to-mouth traders wont have the cheapened average to lean on anymore. Do you buy the inverse, albeit those cheaper long term positions are not so cheap historically speaking.
- We have yet to see the market properly anchored to new price ideas, and the feed industry will be asking what if wheat/corn do a soymeal. French dryness a growing concern, US plantings slow but for the less worse reasons. Canadian canola yields could be a risk soon.

May 11 - Why are food prices going up? Key questions answered
Global food prices started to rise in mid-2020 when businesses shut down due to the COVID-19 pandemic, straining supply chains. Farmers dumped out milk and let fruits and vegetables rot due to a lack of available truckers to transport goods to supermarkets, where prices spiked as consumers stockpiled food. A shortage of migrant labor as lockdowns restricted movement impacted crops worldwide.

May 10 - Russian pea producers calls for China talks amid fears of lost EU exports
Pea producers in some Russian regions face losing large export markets due to anti-Russian sanctions.

May 10 - Market Commentary

Wheat - US futures down on disappointing inspections
 - US wheat futures trended lower following a 40% drop to 236,847 mt in weekly inspections.
 

Corn - US futures lower on improving weather
 - Corn futures continue to trend lower on improved weather forecasts across the corn belt.
 
Soybean - Futures plunge on improving US weather, China demand concerns
 - Soybean CBOT futures fell for a second consecutive session on Monday.
 

Vegoils - Palm oil rangebound as soyoil drops on weaker ags and energy markets

- Crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange edged up on Monday.

May 10 - Dry weather to curb French grain production - farm ministry
Dry weather in France will have a negative impact on this year's production of winter cereals by reducing yield potential for some crops, the French agriculture ministry said on Monday. Low rainfall in France, the European Union's biggest grain producer, has added to market worries about global supply given war disruption to Ukrainian exports, keeping European prices near record highs.

May 10 - Rain and sunshine strengthen Ivory Coast's cocoa mid-crop, farmers say
A mix of abundant rain and sunny spells in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa-growing regions last week has boosted the April-to-September mid-crop, farmers said on Monday. The world's top cocoa producer is in the midst of its rainy season, with frequent heavy downpours from April to mid-November.

May 09  - Russian pea producers calls for China talks amid fears of lost EU exports (AgriCensus)

- Pea producers in some Russian regions face losing large export markets due to anti-Russian sanctions and have asked the government to intensify negotiations with China in a bid to open its market to Russian peas. Russia has typically exported its pea production towards the European Union, but both Ukraine and Russia have been in talks with China to improve exports to the Asian superpower.
"There have been a lot of talks about China in recent years," one trade source told Agricensus.
"I think that China will definitely not allow anything, because China actually supports US and European sanctions against Russia... I don't think that import relief will fit into the current policy," the trade source said.

- China has not publically condemned Russia's invasion, abstaining when the UN passed its resolution ES-11/1 on Aggression against Ukraine, but has called for a peaceful resolution to the conflict.  The appeal stems from the Siberian Grain Consortium Association, according to multiple sources with the problem needing to be solved in the near future since significant planted areas are planned for pea crops in the 2022/23 marketing year. The association reported that before the introduction of sanctions targetting Russian entities agricultural producers in Siberia exported peas mainly to the Baltic countries, which are currently classified as unfriendly.

- According to the Federal Customs Service, in 2021, over 151,000 mt of peas were exported from the Siberian Federal District, of which more than 100,000 mt (73%) went to Latvia and Lithuania. Russian dry pea exports in the current season have set records. From July 2021 to January 2022, inclusive, it amounted to around 900,000 mt, 80% more than in the same period last year.
- Bangladesh was marked as the destination for 216,877 mt (23%), Turkey for 198,310 mt (21%), Italy 96,285 mt (10%), Latvia 90,198 mt (10%), Pakistan 78,327 mt (8%), Spain 57,991 mt (6%), Belgium 47,155 mt (5%).
- At the same time, in total, EU countries account for 35% of share.

- Producers believe that it is necessary to reorient supplies to other countries, primarily to China, which is a large and promising market for peas.
"After Europe comes Pakistan, but they don't want to buy Russian goods en masse and traders from Canada, the US, Singapore and Dubai have problems paying for Russian documents," the source said.
However, the Chinese market is still closed to Russian pea suppliers. In early February, before the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, Russian and Chinese government agencies held talks on compliance with inspection and quarantine requirements for the supply of Russian peas to the Chinese market.

May 09  - China April soybean imports rise after delayed cargo arrivals
China's soybean imports in April climbed from a month ago, helped by the arrival of cargoes previously delayed by poor weather and slow harvests in South America, customs data showed on Monday. China, the world's top soybean importer, brought in 8.08 million tonnes of the oilseed in April, up 27% from 6.35 million tonnes in March, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. The figures were also up from 7.45 million tonnes in the same month a year earlier.

May 09  - French wheat crop condition eases slightly
The crop conditions of winter cereals in France eased slightly in the last week of April, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday, ahead of a hot and dry spell that has raised concern among traders. An estimated 89% of the French soft wheat crop was in good or excellent condition in the week to May 2, down from 91% the previous week but above a score of 79% a year earlier.

May 09  - Nearly 25 mln tonnes of grain stuck in Ukraine, says UN food agency
Nearly 25 million tonnes of grains are stuck in Ukraine and unable to leave the country due to infrastructure challenges and blocked Black Sea ports including Mariupol, a U.N. food agency official said on Friday. The blockages are seen as a factor behind high food prices which hit a record high in March in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, before easing slightly in April, the FAO said on Friday.

May 09  - Canada to help Ukraine find options to export grain to ease supply worries  - Trudeau
Canada will help Ukraine work out options on how to export stored grain to uphold global food security that has been shaken by Russia's invasion of the country, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said late on Sunday. Nearly 25 million tonnes of grains are stuck in Ukraine and unable to leave the country due to infrastructure challenges and blocked Black Sea ports including Mariupol, a U.N. food agency official said last week. Mariupol has endured the most destructive fighting of the 10-week war.

May 06  - Trade on alert over India wheat exports despite government promise ( AgriCensus )
- Government efforts to calm fears over the availability of Indian wheat exports have failed to quell rumours around the country’s production, as fears mount that extreme heat could slash production outlooks. Traders have feared that the government could impose restrictions on Indian wheat exports, prompting Indian government officials to state that there was no plan to curb exports, and that India would continue to develop its export potential, including improving its phytosanitary and quality checks. That comes despite a reduction in the country's production forecast, which has dropped significantly amid ongoing heat. The government has already decreased its output estimate by 6 million mt to 105 million mt, while some local analysts still hold out hopes that production will still reach up to 107 million mt.

- However, the bulk of traders say they are expecting production to dip to somewhere between the 94.5 million-102 million mt range. Most of trade sources agree that there will be a drop in output compared to last year, the question now is simply, how much?
“The drop is more important to know and that is likely to be 6-7 million mt down versus last year,” a trader said.

- In addition to that, Indian wheat stocks are currently at their lowest level in years amid high global demand for wheat and the emergence of India as a potential origin over the last eighteen months. That has fuelled a sharp increase in exports and seen the country strike important deals with major importers like Indonesia, Egypt and Vietnam. While the USDA’s India ending stock forecast currently remains at 21 million mt - with the USDA likely to update figures in the upcoming May review of its influential Wasde report - local analyst Gaurav Jain from AgPulse Analytica has cut their estimate to 18.9 million mt.

- Domestic consumption is not expected to increase amid the high price of wheat, especially compared to rice, while some expect demand to drop compared with last year.
“For the years between the 2013/14 marketing year and 2019/20, Indian wheat consumption averaged 94 million mt and remained stable. With prices significantly higher this year, we expect Indian wheat consumption to reduce to 102 million mt,” Jain told Agricensus.
“We will not be surprised to see it drop below 96 million mt, if the prices remain elevated,” Jain said.

- Meanwhile, local state procurement remains at a slow pace with around 17 million mt of wheat bought by the government by April 30, compared with 28 million mt at the same date of 2021. The slowdown in procurement comes as the price that exporters are prepared to pay is higher compared to the government's minimum support price (MSP) scheme. For the first month of the 2022/23 marketing year, India has already broken its export record according to Agricensus analysis – with available lineup data showing that already up to 1.8 million mt of wheat has been exported in April compared to just 227,810 mt in the same month of 2021. That is also significantly up compared to the average monthly loading from India during the last half of the year. That fast is not lost on trade observers, and is one of the factors that could yet push the government to control the export pace in order to guarantee internal food sufficiency.

- However, traders do not expect there to be an outright export ban, with the country more likely to impose either a sliding export tax or a quota. Meanwhile, while some estimates for India’s 2022/23 export slate reach as high as 15 million mt, trade sources are more pessimistic, expecting the levels to reach around 8-12 million mt range. However, that would still be an increase versus the 7 million mt exported in the 2021/22 marketing year.

May 06 - Dry weather in France will cause irreversible damage to crops - Expert
Dry, hot weather in France in the coming 10 days after several months of little rainfall will cause irreversible damage to grain crops in the European Union's largest grains producer, a technical institute said on Thursday, adding to worries about tight global supplies. European wheat markets have rallied in recent days on concerns about dry weather in France and some other major producing countries at a time when the war in Ukraine has reduced grain supplies.

May 06 - Ukraine has enough grain stocks to feed population - deputy minister
Ukraine has large enough grain stocks in territory it still controls to feed the population in these areas, and has enough fuel to meet farmers' daily needs, deputy agriculture minister Taras Vysotskiy said on Thursday. Ukraine said last month Russian forces had stolen "several hundred thousand tonnes" of grain in the areas of Ukraine they have occupied since the invasion began on Feb. 24 and this could affect the food security of local population.

May 06 - Ukraine exports 46 mln T of grain, including 132,000 T so far in May - ministry - Reuters
Ukraine's grain exports have reached 46 million tonnes so far in the 2021/22 July-June season, the agriculture ministry said on Thursday. The ministry said the volume included 132,000 tonnes exported in May. It did not give a final figure for April but had exported 763,000 tonnes through April 29.

May 06 - Tunisia buys soft wheat, feed barley in tender - traders - Reuters
Tunisia's state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 100,000 tonnes of soft wheat and 75,000 tonnes of animal feed barley in an international tender which closed on Thursday, European traders said. The grains can be sourced from optional origins but excluding the Black Sea region, they said. Ukraine and Russia had before the outbreak of war been major grains suppliers to Tunisia.

 

 

May 05  - Indonesia's palm oil export ban does not threaten EU supply -producers  - Reuters
Indonesia's ban on palm oil products does not raise concern for the supply of the European Union market as the bloc has reserves for several weeks, EU vegetable oil group FEDIOL said on Tuesday. The world's top palm oil producer last week imposed an export ban on raw materials for cooking oil, including several products such as refined, bleached and deodorized palm olein (RBD), crude and refined palm oil, in an attempt to lower cooking oil prices.

May 05  - Brazil farmers to expand soy area, cut fertilizer-use next season  - consultancy
Brazilian soybean farmers will raise soybean plantings by 1.5% nationwide next season, agribusiness consultancy Agrinvest Commodities told Reuters on Wednesday, in one of the first known projections for area growth for the new crop. Brazil planted 40.8 million hectares (100.8 million acres) with soybeans in the 2021/2022 cycle, a 4.1% expansion, government data showed.

May 05 - India is not moving to curb wheat exports, official says
India is not moving to curb wheat exports, the top official at the food ministry said on Wednesday, following an earlier report that the world's second biggest producer of the grain was mulling restrictions after a heat wave damaged crops. Food and farm ministry officials said on Wednesday that India can still easily export at least 8 million tonnes of wheat in the current fiscal year that began in April, and that the government would only consider export curbs after any sudden, unexpected surge in overseas shipments.

May 05 - Taiwan’s MFIG buys about 55,000 tonnes corn - traders
Taiwan's MFIG purchasing group bought about 55,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to expected to be sourced from South Africa in an international tender which closed on Wednesday, European traders said. The corn was purchased at an estimated premium of 219.79 U.S. cents a bushel c&f over the Chicago September 2022 corn contract, they said.

May 05  - EU Morning Comments ( Stone X )
- Powel comments last night weakened the USD as the market interpret the comments have sharply reducing the probabilities of near term interest rate increases. The weaker dollar and generally rosy economic picture he painted intentionally or otherwise support crude oil and energy values generally.

- There is plenty of evidence locally, anecdotal and global to argue down feed demand ideas. We are seeing with for example the TMO tender and GASC tendering (or absence thereof) demand deference to new crop but with feed demand if the demand is declining it is because of reducing livestock mouths to feed and that takes weeks for poultry, months for pigs and years for ruminants to rebuild. In my head I have the greatest demand destruction/long term deference being in the pig industry with 10-20% lower demand on the cards for the new crop. Poultry steady. Ruminant feed may not be a culling issue but a greater reliance on grass and reduced output (dairy). So maybe 5-10% demand down there in ballpark numbers.

May 05  - Russian June duty on sunoil jumps 41% to to $525/mt ( Agricensus )
- The export duty on sunflower oil from June 1 will increase by $152.80/mt or 41% to $525/mt, according to local media citing the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. The commission was determined based on a floating index that values ​​sunflower oil at $1,750/mt. The export duty on sunflower meal from June 1 will increase by 9% or $8.80/t and will amount to $105/mt. Both fees are in effect until a new update is published.

- On March 27, 2021, the Russian government announced the establishment of a damper mechanism for the export of sunflower oil in a bid to control runaway domestic prices. As a result of the measure, the export duty was set at 70% and will be charged on the difference between the base price and the indicative price.

- The base price is set at $1,000/t, and the indicative price, from April 15, 2022, will be determined based on the data of the National Commodity Exchange, which is part of the Moscow Exchange group. It is based on the daily calculation of two new price indicators, over-the-counter sunflower export indices, oil and sunflower meal.

- This mechanism will operate until August 2022.

- Starting April 15, the Russian government introduced export quotas of 1.5 million mt for sunflower oil and 700,000 mt for sunflower meal. The quota for sunflower oil will be divided among 54 oil extraction enterprises, and the quota for sunflower meal between 21 enterprises, as was officially announced on the website of the Ministry of Agriculture on April 12.

- The top five recipients of the largest volumes included the EFKO group of companies (239,700 mt), Aston (178,700 mt), the Rusagro group (137,400 mt), Cargill (135,600 mt) and the South of Russia group (133,100 mt).

May 04  - EU market comments ( Stone X )
- As the EU hardens plans to ban Russian crude energy markets getting a lift. Russia of course more important for gas than oil and the Southern States of the EU have been courting middle Eastern oil suppliers for alternatives. The support to crude will be a supportive backdrop to grains and while Germany has been debating biofuels from fuels they cant keep carving out fuel supply chains. Hence why diesel crack spreads are so strong.
- US corn and soybean values under pressure as the USDA indicate 3m acres of CRP land to crop production. CRP by its nature not the highest yielding areas of the country but we are talking about production potential of grains in the order of millions of tonnes. What we gain there is being lost in production downgrades to Brazil's corn crop and India's wheat crop that dents the export potential of both.
- Reports of Russia moving Ukrainian grains across to their boarder along with machinery that raises questions about the Eastern regions ability to tend to their crops and if/how/when that grain (in the order of severall hundred thousand tonnes so far) makes it to the market and who is willing to close their eyes to morality of buying stolen grain.
- Weather markets remain focused on Indian heat, US cold/wet and SAM dryness. W. EU thristy

May 04 - Ukraine faces grain harvest storage crunch as exports struggle
Ukraine is forecast to have a significant shortage of storing facilities in the 2022/23 season due to a sharp fall in exports resulting from Russia's invasion, analyst APK-Inform said. Since Moscow launched what it calls a "special military operation" in Ukraine in late February, the country has been forced to export grain by train over its western border or from its small Danube river ports rather than by sea.

May 04 - Brazil plans 'fertilizer diplomacy' trip to N.Africa, Jordan to secure more imports
Brazil's new agriculture minister Marcos Montes will visit Jordan, Egypt and Morocco in a tour starting this week to discuss increasing fertilizer imports from those countries. "It's a pilgrimage that we are calling fertilizer diplomacy," Montes said in an interview with Reuters late on Monday, adding he would be joined by private sector representatives.

May 03 - After five record crops, heat wave threatens India's wheat output, export plans
India's wheat output looks likely to fall in 2022 after five consecutive years of record harvests, as a sharp, sudden rise in temperatures in mid-March cut crop yields in the world's second-biggest producer of the grain. The drop could curb Indian exports of the staple.
 
May 03 - Bird flu puts organic chickens into lockdown from Pennsylvania to France
Organic and free-range chickens have been thrown into lockdown. Egg-laying hens that normally have access to the outdoors can no longer roam as freely or feel the sun on their beaks as some U.S. and European farmers temporarily keep flocks inside during lethal outbreaks of bird flu, according to egg producers and industry representatives.

May 02 - How Indonesia's policy stumbles over palm oil have unfolded
When Indonesian cooking oil prices started climbing in November, authorities faced pressure to contain the cost of the household necessity made from palm oil and used by most people in the world's fourth most populous country. But the months of rapid-fire government policies that followed, including twice halting exports of palm oil, have at times both stunned and confounded global edible oil markets.

May 02 - Shanghai lockdown sends chill down meat trade
The protracted lockdown in Shanghai, China's financial hub, is slowing the nation's normally booming meat trade, with stringent COVID-19 measures causing logistics logjams across the food industry in a sign of the broadening disruptions to business. The challenge of moving food in and around Shanghai, whose residents are into a month-long stressful home isolation, highlights similar problems in many other Chinese cities as Beijing persists with its controversial zero-COVID strategy despite growing risks to its economy.

May 02 - EU cuts 2022/23 wheat crop forecast, still sees record exports
The European Commission cut its forecast for the 2022/23 European Union wheat harvest on Friday, but maintained its projection for record EU exports as war disrupts supply from Ukraine. In monthly cereal supply and demand estimates, the Commission cut its outlook for usable production of common wheat, or soft wheat, in the July 2022 to June 2023 season to 130.1 million tonnes from 131.3 million tonnes previously.

May 02 - First Ukrainian corn cargo leaves Romanian Black Sea port
A cargo carrying over 71,000 tonnes of Ukrainian corn finished loading in the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta on Thursday, the first since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, the manager of port operator Comvex said. With Ukraine's sea ports blocked since the war started more than two months ago, the world's fourth-largest grain exporter has been forced to send shipments by train via its western border or through its small Danube river ports into Romania.