Grains, Céréales, Oléagineux, Huiles et Tourteaux

Jan 07 - French Weekly Fertilizer market context (Agryco)

The majority of suppliers have now returned from leave, but they still need time to assess the situation accurately, both globally and in France. In the meantime, most of the suppliers are back on year-end bases.

The new element compared to last week is the return of geopolitics to the forefront, notably with the MACF tax and the US attack on Venezuela. Although Venezuela is a major regional producer, it is not so much this event itself that worries markets, but rather the uncertainty it generates. It reinforces the idea that Donald Trump could intervene suddenly on other countries, especially Iran, which he threatened again last week. In such a scenario, the impact could be significant, as was seen several months ago, when urea prices rose sharply following Israel’s attacks on Iran.

For the time being, the market is expected to remain broadly stable at the beginning of the year. The underlying trend remains firm and it will take some time before a clearer trend is established for the beginning of the year. Careful monitoring of urea trends will continue, including through the Indian tender and the level of demand in the United States and South America (Venezuela is a supplier, for example, from Brazil).

Regarding phosphorus, it will be necessary to observe whether the promising end of the year is confirmed, with the possible arrival of significant price reductions.

Nitrogen solution:
As indicated above, the market is in the observation phase at the beginning of the year. Offers are maintained at last week's levels, i.e. 358 €/t from Rouen for January and 360 €/t for February/March deliveries. No significant price changes are expected this week. The underlying market remains relatively firm, but does not appear to be able to absorb further increases at the moment, in particular due to still limited demand.

Ammonitrate:
There have been no notable developments. Prices remain stable at €493.5/t in the case of the big bag for ammonitrate 33.5 and at €381/t in the case of the big bag for ammonitrate 27.

Urea:
The global urea market had shown a downward trend at the end of the year, but the context seems to have strengthened recently. Without engaging a frankly upward dynamic, the decline now seems limited. Prices are therefore expected to remain broadly stable in the short term. Much will depend on the outcome of the Indian tender, as well as the level of demand in the US and South America, a revival of which could sustain the market and prevent any further decline. Conversely, a later request could suggest a correction. The price remains at 560 €/t bulk departure La Pallice.

Phosphorus:
The phosphorus market has started a downward trend that seems to be continuing. However, it is still necessary to wait in order to assess the real downside potential and to identify the first significant offers for spring uses.
The TSP 45 is currently displayed at 545 €/t departure Rouen, while the DAP is offered at 700 €/t departure Rouen.

Potash:
No changes to report in this market. Potash chloride remains stable at 360 €/t bulk departure Rouen.

Jan 07 - China buys more US soybeans, total purchases approach 10 million tons
China's state stockpiler Sinograin bought 10 U.S. soybean cargoes this week, three traders told Reuters on Tuesday, as the world's top buyer continues purchasing from the United States following a late October trade truce. The cargoes, totalling around 600,000 metric tons, are for shipment between March and May, the traders said, which is the peak shipping season for rival supplier Brazil.

Jan 07 - EU summons farm ministers to secure Mercosur deal support
The European Commission appeared to have won the crucial support of Italy on Tuesday for a contentious free trade deal with South American bloc Mercosur, paving the way for the EU to sign the agreement as early as next week. Italy and France last month dashed hopes for a December deal, saying they were not ready to support it until farmers' fears of an influx of cheap commodities from Mercosur, including beef and sugar, were resolved.

Jan 07 - EU 2025/26 soft wheat exports reach 11.18 million tons in incomplete tally
European Union soft wheat exports since the start of the 2025/26 season last July had reached 11.18 million metric tons as of January 2, down 2% from a year earlier, though some figures were incomplete, the European Commission said on Tuesday. EU barley exports totalled 5.29 million tons, up 126% from the corresponding period in the 2024/25 season, while EU maize imports were at 8.22 million tons as of December 31, down 20%.

Jan 07 - Jordan buys 60,000 tons of wheat in tender, traders say
Jordan's state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, traders said. It was believed to have been bought from trading house Buildcom at an estimated $260 a ton cost and freight included for shipment in the first half of April, they said. 

Jan 06 - Ukraine Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

- Ukraine
· As of 01.01, 57.9 million tons of grain and leguminous crops have been threshed. Oilseeds (including soybean) - 17.4 million tons.
· Harvesting of corn for the week amounted to 320 thousand tons, with a shaft of 27.8 million tons.
· In December, total agricultural exports amounted to 4.1 million tons, which is the lowest December figure for at least the last 10 years. Including: wheat - 619 thousand tons, barley - 158 thousand tons, corn - 2.2 million tons, soybeans - 202 thousand tons, rape - 121 thousand tons, soybean oil - 54 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 427 thousand tons, sunflower and soybean meal - 378 thousand tons.

- CORN
The harvesting campaign has slowed down considerably due to adverse weather conditions. The progress of harvesting corn for the week amounted to only 300 thousand tons, with the total gross harvest as of 01.01.26 - 27.8 million tons.
In December, corn exports amounted to 2.2 million tons, with the key areas being the Mediterranean region and the EU, which together formed more than 60% of total supplies. The largest volumes were directed to Turkey (722.9 thousand tons) and Italy (456.3 thousand tons), which confirms the dominance of Europe and the Mediterranean countries as the top markets. Asia provided a smaller but significant share of exports, in particular South Korea (101.6 thousand tons) and China (58.0 thousand tons).
Seaports gradually began to resume work under conditions of active shelling by the aggressor, adapting to the reduced electrical voltage and compensating for the shortage of electricity by installing diesel generators. The increase in the discharge rate on water led to a temporary shortage of goods in ports, as suppliers held back shipments towards ports during the holidays, as well as because of the uncertainty of ports after active missile attacks.
Spot corn price index with delivery of CPT-port (30 days) rose to $206, which is $2 above the closing level last week.
The western border market is in a phase of low business activity, which is associated with the holiday season and holiday season in Europe. The nominal prices remained at €180 FCA Chop with delivery in February-May.

- WHEAT
In December, wheat exports from Ukraine amounted to 619 thousand tons and was concentrated mainly in the countries of North Africa and the Middle East. The absolute dominant among the directions was Algeria, which imported 280.4 thousand tons. The second key region remained the Middle East, where the main recipients were Yemen (118.1 thousand tons) and Syria (69.0 thousand tons). Asia formed a limited demand, mainly due to Malaysia (8.8 thousand tons). Deliveries to Europe were minimal and did not have a significant impact on overall export structure.
The slowdown in the rate of export shipments of wheat increases the likelihood of accumulation of grain residues in Ukraine and increases the price pressure both at the end of the current season and at the beginning of the next season.
Spot price index of food wheat (11.5% protein) with delivery CPT-port decreased to $211, and feed wheat - to $205.

- SUNFLOWER AND ITS PROCESSING PRODUCTS
The market of sunflower and its processing products is in the phase of weak business activity. At the same time, stabilizing maritime logistics gives market participants confidence in the sale of processed products and, as a result, can stimulate more aggressive purchases of sunflower.
The rise in energy in Ukraine remains a key factor in the increase in the cost of sunflower processing, which this season will limit the purchase prices from processing plants.
The price of sunflower without VAT with delivery to the plants of central Ukraine is $550-560 in the equivalent, while the plants of Bulgaria are already buying sunflower at prices of $620-630 delivered, which looks attractive, taking into account the cost of logistics.
Spot sunflower price index with processing delivery within 30 days decreased by $4 with VAT - up to $642.

- SOYA
In December, soybean exports amounted to 202.6 thousand tons. Logistically, it was mainly focused on sea routes, which accumulated 61% of the volume (123.6 thousand tons). The bulk of the sea supplies were directed to Turkey, which remains a key market for Ukrainian soybean.
Rail transport formed 36% of exports (72.9 thousand tons) and provided the main flow of products to the European Union, including large processing centers in the Netherlands, Germany and France.
Road transport provided only 3% of exports (6.1 thousand tons) and was mainly used for short routes to neighboring EU countries.
Prices for soybeans have decreased in all directions. Marine exports showed a decrease of $3, the direction of processing - by $2.
Spot price index of GMO soybean with delivery of CPT port for export in the horizon of 30 days decreased to $422 without VAT.
Direction of processing: spot index of GMO soybean price for processing decreased to $457 with VAT.