Grains, Céréales, Oléagineux, Huiles et Tourteaux
Jan 06 - Ukraine farm exports fall 8.4% in December, traders union says
Ukrainian exports of key agricultural commodities fell to 3.28 million metric tons in December from 3.58 million tons in November, mostly due to smaller shipments of wheat and soybeans, traders union UGA said on Monday. Ukraine is a large European grower and exporter of corn, wheat, barley and oilseeds.
Jan 06 - Brazil's soy exports hit record in 2025, data from shipping agency Cargonave shows
Soybean shipments from Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of the oilseed, hit a record of 108.68 million metric tons in 2025, data from shipping agency Cargonave published on Monday showed. The figure represents an 11.7% climb from 2024, and comes after a record soy harvest in Brazil last year, as well as extensive purchases from China, which avoided buying the oilseed from the United States for much of the year due to a dispute over tariffs.
Jan 05 - France tightens checks on food imports amid farmers' Mercosur opposition
The French government said on Sunday it was tightening checks on several food imports in a bid to ease concerns of farmers who have been protesting at what they say is unfair competition from countries with looser regulations. French farmers have been protesting over a planned European trade deal with the South American Mercosur bloc, and other issues including measures to contain a livestock disease.
Jan 05 - Malaysia’s palm oil stocks likely hit near 7-year high on strong output
Malaysia’s December palm oil inventories are expected to have risen to their highest level in almost seven years, as strong monthly production overpowered a modest improvement in exports, a Reuters survey showed. Palm oil stocks are expected to rise to 2.97 million metric tons, up 4.7% from November, its highest since February 2019, according to a median estimate of 10 traders, planters, and analysts polled by Reuters.
Jan 05 - Indonesia sees rice output up 32.5% y/y in December-February period
Indonesia expects a 32.5% yearly increase in rice output in the three-month period up to February 2026, with production reaching 6.23 million metric tons, according to a forecast by the statistics bureau released. The bureau also revised its 2025 rice production outlook down slightly to 34.71 million tons, compared with a previous projection of 34.79 million tons.
Jan 05 - Indonesia's November Sumatra robusta coffee bean exports at 34,102 metric tons
Indonesia's Sumatra robusta coffee bean exports were 34,101.7 metric tons in November, a 61% increase from the same month a year ago, local trade office data showed. On a monthly basis, shipments fell more than 6% from 36,455.8 tons exported in October.
REUTERS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Q1 OUTLOOK 2026 - WANG TAO
Brent crude, WTI, and palm oil may retest the supports that they failed to break in May. Spot gold could peak within the $4,995–$5,387 range, marking the end of its extended bull run. LME copper and aluminum remain bullish. Soybeans are likely to stay capped below $11.07¼. Corn and wheat are diverging, with corn poised to rise while wheat trends lower. Coffee is expected to decline further, whereas cocoa may see additional upside. The U.S. dollar index could retest resistance near 101. To read the full report, click here
Dec 31 - Palm Oils Ends Lower Amid Weak Demand (DJ)
- Palm oil ended slightly lower amid weak demand. Malaysia's palm oil exports during the Dec. 1-31 period are estimated to have declined 5.2% on month at 1,197,434 metric tons, according to cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia.
- Palm oil production growth in Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to remain constrained in 2026 due to issues such as aging trees, said Baocheng Futures analysts. However, the actual implementation of Indonesia's palm-oil plantation expansion plans as well as biodiesel policies are key variables that may affect global supply, they say.
- Among the world's major palm-oil consumers, India's imports in 2026 will likely depend on the price differences in palm oil and other vegetable oils, they add. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for March delivery ended 20 ringgit lower at 4,050 ringgit a ton.
Dec 31 - French Weekly Fertilizer market context (Agryco)
The situation is little changed compared to the previous week. A large proportion of suppliers are still on holiday this week, which limits market movements. No major changes are therefore expected in the short term.
The context remains generally firm on nitrogen in the background trend, even if a phase of easing could occur at the beginning of the year, in the continuity of the end of the year, in the event of moderate demand. The now precise knowledge of basic taxes also allows suppliers to refine their pricing positions.
Priority should be given to following the Indian call for tenders, which is expected to be concluded in early January, and which could give an initial indication of the market direction at the beginning of the year.
For phosphorus, the trend remains downward and we should see better prices for spring.
Nitrogen solution:
Prices remain at 358 €/t departure Rouen for January and 360 €/t for deliveries February/March. Prices should remain stable this week. In terms of substance, the market remains firm in line with the elements mentioned in previous weeks (Russian tax, MACF...).)
Ammonitrate:
Prices remain at 493,5 €/t in big bag rendered culture for ammonitrate 33,5 and at 381 €/t in big bag rendered culture for ammonitrate 27. For the trend, we will have to monitor the dynamics on other nitrogen fertilizers and demand at the beginning of the year.
Urea:
Urea remained stable this week and is expected to remain so until the call for tenders approaches, which should give a new benchmark and put a new dynamic on the market. The price is always at 460 €/t bulk departure La Pallice.
Phosphorus:
The phosphorus market remains on a downward trend and further decreases are expected in the coming weeks. However, they are expected to start in mid-January, with market activity expected to remain limited until then.
The TSP 45 is currently displayed at 545 €/t departure Rouen, while the DAP is at 700 €/t departure Rouen.
Potash:
No changes to report in this market. Potash chloride remains stable at 360 €/t bulk departure Rouen.
Dec 30 - Palm Oil Rises on Hopes of Stronger Demand Ahead of Holidays (DJ)
- Palm oil ended slightly higher in early Asian trade, following soybean oil's gains overnight.
Expectations of stronger demand ahead of the holidays supported palm oil's prices, Kenanga Futures says in a research note. Stronger exports in the second half of December may extend through the year-end, it says, though it adds that lingering concerns over rising Malaysian stockpiles may cap the upside on prices. Kenanga sets the support and resistance for the March futures contract at 4,020 ringgit and 4,110 ringgit a ton, respectively. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for March delivery ended 24 ringgit higher at 4,071 ringgit a ton.
Dec 30 - Palm Oil Rises on Stronger Soybean Oil (DJ)
- Palm oil prices rise in early Asian trading, driven by soybean oil's strength on the Chicago Board of Trade overnight, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Recent stronger palm oil demand is also lifting market sentiment, he adds. Ng sees resistance for crude palm oil futures at 4,150 ringgit a ton and support at 4,000 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for March delivery is 13 ringgit higher at 4,060 ringgit a ton.
Dec 25 - The duty on the export of sunflower oil in January will increase by 36.5% to 9.3 thousand rubles, but on meal - 0 rub (Prozerno)
Export #duty for sunflower oil from Russia in January 2026 will increase by 36.5%, to 9,298.6 rubles from 8,214.5 rubles per ton in December, for sunflower meal duty will be zero - for the first time since October 2022. The Agriculture Ministry submitted the calculation.
Indicative prices, based on which the duties were calculated, were: for oil $1,200.2 per ton ($1,169.5 a month ago), for meal - $195.7 ($210.9).
The fees are 70 per cent of the difference between the base price and the reference price (the arithmetic average of the market prices for the month).
The Russian Federation introduced the "sunflower damper" mechanism on September 1, 2021. Initially, duties were calculated in dollars, from July 2022 - in rubles.
The base price for sunflower oil is 82,500 rubles per ton, for meal - 15,875 rubles per ton.
In August 2024, floating duties were extended for two years, until September 1, 2026. In October 2025, the government extended their validity until 31 August 2028.
Dec 25 - The grain market in Russia and in the world is the main news to this hour (Sovecon)
· On Wednesday, cereal prices continued to grow. The March contract for SRW wheat closed at $5.22/bush ($192/t; +0.9% compared to Tuesday). HRW’s March wheat contract rose to $5.34/bush ($196/t; +1.1%). March wheat contract Euronext closed for €190.25/t ($224/t; +0.7%). The March contract of American corn rose to $4.51/bush ($178/t; +0.8%).
· Argentine soybean exports in November rose to 2.2m tons from 1.7m tons a month earlier and 0.1m tons a year ago, Oil World reported. Most of the cargo was shipped to China.
· The administration of the seaports of Ukraine reported the resumption of the port of Yuzhny. Earlier, the port was suspended to deal with the consequences of the shelling of infrastructure.
· Algerian company OAIC purchased 500-550 thousand tons of durum wheat at the price of $315-325/t C&F with delivery in February-March within the framework of an international tender.
Dec 24 - SPIKE Spot Commodity Index Ukraine
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CPT ODESSA, UKRAINE (export)
· Corn - 204$ (-1$)
· Wheat 11.5pro - 212$ (0$)
· Feed wheat - 206$ (0$)
· Soya GMO - 425$ (0$)
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CPT PARITY* ODESSA, UKRAINE (processing)
· Soybean GMO - 457$ incl. VAT (-3$)
· Sunflower - 644$ incl. VAT (-4$)
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Note:
· Prices are for delivery within 30 days
*Parity is a reflection of prices of plants from different regions of Ukraine, brought to the unified basis of CPT Odessa, taking into account logistic costs.
Dec24 - Barva Invest Channel Agri Report
EURUSD – 1.1798
USDUAH - 42.1003 (NBU)
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- Wheat
DAP-Deep Sea Ports (11.5%) - 208-213$/t
Wheat quotes at the Chicago Exchange showed a restrained growth on the eve of the holidays, still being under pressure from an excess of a global offer.
· According to Lachstock, in Western Australia, wheat is harvested from 76% of crops compared to 62% last week, in South Australia 63% compared to 46% last week.
· Local analysts forecast wheat sowing areas in russia at 26.3 million hectares in 2026, compared to 26.9 million hectares last year.
Activity in the Ukrainian wheat market remains limited, and prices fluctuate slightly depending on the needs of the trade. The Black Sea ports remain closed to ships due to both the security situation and the deterioration of the weather.
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- Corn
DAP-Deep Sea Ports (11.5%) - 203-205 $/t
Prices for American corn have not undergone significant changes in the results of yesterday's trading, despite stable export figures.
· Since the beginning of MY 2025/26, the EU has imported 7.81 million tons of corn, which is 21% less than last year.
Trade activity in the Ukrainian corn market has decreased due to the Russian Federation's strikes, as well as the expected decrease in the interest of importers before the long holidays.
Dec 24 - French Weekly Fertilizer market context (Agryco)
As every year at this time, the market is relatively quiet, with many suppliers on leave. Last week's official announcement of default values did not fundamentally change the market, as the announced levels are broadly expected and already built into prices. This communication had even slightly relaxed the market by improving visibility on the amount of taxes, particularly on urea. However, the announcement shortly afterwards of a new Indian tender for urea stopped this decline.
We anticipate a status quo situation in the coming weeks, with operators letting the end-of-year holidays and the results of the Indian tender scheduled for around January 5 pass.
We have heard from a number of people who have suggested that the tax would be only 1 per cent. The amounts we provided you last week correspond to the taxes applicable as of January 1. These values correspond to the default values and to this 1% increase. This 1% corresponds to a security mechanism designed to cover any discrepancy between the default value and the actual value put in place by the European Commission.
The European authorities have sought to emphasize that the increase is limited to 1% for fertilizers, unlike other sectors that are more heavily penalized. However, this communication must not obscure the core of the device, which is based on the default value.
Nitrogen solution:
The price of the nitrogen solution is unchanged from last week, with a level of 358 €/t departure Rouen for January and 360 €/t for deliveries February/March. Prices should remain stable over the next two weeks.
On the underlying trend, the market remains firm. The number of players continues to shrink, notably following the withdrawal of Russian producers, and the risk of withdrawal of US producers linked to the MACF. In addition, there is likely to be a significant need for crops. The question arises as to how much of the volume could be switched to solid fertilizers given the current price level of the nitrogen solution.
Ammonitrate:
The situation is similar to that of the nitrogen solution. Prices remain at €493.5/t in big bag returned culture for ammonitrate 33.5, and €381/t in big bag returned culture for ammonitrate 27.
In substance, however, this market is less robust than the nitrogen solution market, and fundamentals could theoretically allow producers to adjust their prices downwards. However, given the lack of competitiveness of the nitrogen solution and the risk of demand shifting to solid fertilizers, a sharp fall in prices seems unlikely this year. However, slight corrections could occur at the beginning of the year depending also on the urea market.
Urea:
Urea had started a slight downward adjustment following the official announcement of the level of the tax, but this phase was quickly halted by the announcement of the new Indian tender. At this stage, we do not believe that this event is sufficient to reverse the upward trend in Europe, but it should stabilize prices over the next two weeks.
The results of the Indian tender and the level of demand should be carefully monitored in order to assess the underlying trend for the beginning of the year. The price of urea is currently 460 €/t bulk departure La Pallice.
Phosphorus:
The phosphorus market remains on a downward trend, and we expect further price reductions in the coming weeks. However, these should materialize rather from mid-January, as the market is expected to remain weak until then.
The TSP 45 is currently at 545 €/t departure Rouen, and the DAP at 700 €/t departure Rouen.
Potash:
No change. Potash chloride is 360 € / T bulk departure Rouen.
Dec 22 - areas under wheat in Russia are shrinking (SovEkon)
Russia has completed the planting of winter crops for the 2026 harvest, SovEkon reported in its weekly report. As of mid-December, farmers planted 16.1m ha of winter wheat, compared to 16.2m ha a year earlier and 16.9m ha the year before last. Winter wheat plantations in Russia peaked at 17.8 million hectares in December 2021, after which they began to decline amid declining profitability of grain production and the introduction of export duties.
SovEkon also predicts a reduction in the area under spring wheat in 2026 to 10.7 million hectares from 11.1 million hectares in 2025 and 12.3 million hectares in 2024.
The profitability of grain production has been declining in recent years. According to SovEkon calculations, the pre-tax profit of grain crop producers in January-September 2025 amounted to 69 billion rubles, compared to 93 billion rubles a year earlier and 181 billion rubles in 2021. The financial situation of farmers began to deteriorate after the introduction of export duties in 2021.
At the same time, areas under winter wheat have grown in Russia's competitors in the wheat market. According to the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, the sown area under winter wheat in the country as of mid-December amounted to 4.7 million hectares (4.4 t/ha a year earlier), which was the highest figure in five years. The French Ministry of Agriculture estimates the acreage planted under winter wheat to be the largest in three years, 4.8m ha (4.7m ha a year earlier).
The sowing campaign for the 2026 harvest in Russia was held in difficult weather conditions. Heavy rains slowed down sowing for most of the season, with a lag from last year's rate in the peak reaching 0.5 million hectares. Since October, rainfall in the European part of Russia has returned to levels close to normal, which allowed to accelerate planting.
In the future, SovEkon expects a reduction in the acreage under wheat in Russia to 26.3 million hectares in 2026 from 26.9 million hectares a year earlier, together with a decrease in the average yield to 3.2 t/ha from 3.3 t/ha. As a result, wheat production in 2026 is forecast at 83.8 million tons, compared to 88.8 million tons this year.
Dec 20 - Season’s Greetings from all of us at the C3 !
We're sending our best wishes to everyone in the commodities community and beyond.
Dear business partner, (customers , contributors and distributors )
Thank you for the trustful cooperation in 2025. Have a peaceful Christmas and a prosperous and healthy 2026.
Our office will be closed Dec 24 - 26 and Dec 31 - Jan 1
During 2025 year end period, a lot of our sources will cease their contributions e.g. there will be no American Wheat Price Report on December 26, 2025, and January 2, 2026, due to the Christmas and New Year's holidays. Their regular schedule will resume on Friday, January 9, 2026.
We wish everyone a very Merry Christmas, a safe and happy Holiday Season and a Happy New Year !
Dec 19 - EU-Mercosur trade deal signing delayed as Italy seeks more time
EU executive chief Ursula von der Leyen told European Union leaders on Thursday that the signing of the contentious EU-Mercosur trade deal had been delayed to January, EU sources told Reuters, casting some doubt on the future of the EU's trade expansion plans. The European Commission President had been due to travel to Brazil for a signing ceremony on Saturday, but this was reliant on backing from a broad majority of EU members.
Dec 19 - Expana sees EU 2026 winter grain crops ease after hefty 2025
European Union production of soft wheat could fall 6.2% in 2026/27 after a bumper harvest this season due to good weather conditions in most parts of the bloc, consultancy Expana said. In its first production forecasts for next season, the firm projected output of soft wheat, the EU's main cereal crop, at 128.3 million metric tons, down from 136.8 million in 2025/26.
Dec 19 - China's Sinograin sells 33% of soybeans in Friday auction, Mysteel says
China's state stockpiler, Sinograin, sold 179,702 metric tons of imported soybeans, or 32.66% of the total offered, in its third auction this month as it prepares for U.S. imports, according to data from consultancy Mysteel. The average transaction price for soybeans from the 2022 and 2023 crops was 3,750.83 yuan per metric ton, with deliveries scheduled from January through late May, Mysteel reported.
Dec 18 - EU reaches initial agreement on tighter EU-Mercosur safeguards
The European Union struck a provisional deal on Wednesday to set tighter controls on imports of farm products resulting from a planned trade agreement with South American bloc Mercosur, potentially meeting some complaints of critics of the deal. The EU and the bloc of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay concluded negotiations last December to create the EU's largest ever trade accord in terms of tariff cuts, some 25 years after negotiations were launched.
Dec 18 - Ukrainian grain exports curtailed by Russian attacks, union says
Ukrainian wheat exports have been curbed as Russia's recent heavy attacks on Black Sea ports and energy facilities have forced the shutdown of some grain export terminals, Ukrainian farmers' union UAC said on Wednesday. Ukraine is a major global wheat grower and exporter, shipping about 70% of its wheat harvest for export via the country's Black Sea ports.
Dec 18 - China cancels purchase of US white wheat, USDA says
Exporters cancelled sales of 132,000 metric tons of U.S. white wheat to China, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Wednesday, as world supplies were ample. U.S. farmers and traders have closely watched China's demand for American agricultural goods since President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping struck a trade truce in late October.
Dec 18 - South Korea's MFG buys estimated 268,000 tons corn in tender, traders say
South Korean importer Major Feedmill Group bought an estimated 268,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said. The corn was bought in four consignments for 2026 arrival in South Korea and was expected to be sourced optionally from the United States, South America or South Africa.
Dec 17 - Weekly French Fertilizer market context (Agryco)
The official announcement of the default values by product and by origin as part of the MACF tax has been postponed to this week. Nevertheless, the preliminary document leaked last week (more details in Julie's recommendations).
Overall, the reported values are within the expected range, with the exception of some very high levels. This is particularly the case for the American nitrogen solution, with a tax of 95 €/t, or Chinese ammonia sulfate with a tax of 74 €/t. For urea, the levels of taxation correspond to the estimates made in recent weeks, but are lower than those mentioned in the first estimates.
Surprisingly enough, this announcement, which was marked by several unexpected elements, did not lead to an increased firmness of the nitrogen market. On the contrary, a slight relaxation is observed. This reaction is largely explained by a partial lifting of the uncertainty surrounding these amounts for several months. The tax levels therefore already seem to be largely integrated into current prices, as we have already mentioned.
This easing is also reinforced by the current very low demand, which should continue at least until the beginning of next year and anticipated volumes to avoid the tax in stock. A significant fall in prices is not to be expected given the elements related to the tax, but some downward adjustments remain possible in the coming weeks. However, it will be difficult to show declines to producers without significant purchase volumes in front of them.
The underlying trend remains broadly firm, which means that a return of demand could quickly translate into sharp price increases. It should be noted that it is not excluded that the leaked data will be further reviewed before the official publication, in particular because of the reactions to the higher levels of taxation, the calculation methods of which could be adjusted.
The management of the campaign against lumpy skin disease and more broadly the economic situation of the sector are pushing many farmers to protest. This challenge could be amplified with the arrival of the MACF tax and the risk of a European agreement on MERCOSUR.
Nitrogen solution:
Prices are starting to fall, despite the unpleasant surprise linked to the level of taxation on certain origins. These tax amounts could be reviewed, hence the importance of following the official publication.
This decrease is mainly due to the arrival of many boats at the end of the year and the lack of demand, prompting suppliers to adopt more aggressive positions. Prices thus fall from 5 €/t for February/March deliveries, to 360 €/t from Rouen. For January deliveries, the decrease is 2 €/t, with a price of 358 €/t from Rouen.
These adjustments could continue by the end of the year as long as demand does not pick up, even if the underlying trend remains clearly upward. For second inputs, producers may be forced to make further cuts in order to revive purchases.
Ammonitrate:
Producers naturally continue to maintain that prices remain stable. However, we clearly see that some sales are below the official rates. It seems that the purchase price has decreased by around 10 €/t compared to last week. The price would therefore be 493.5 €/t in big bag made culture in ammonitrate 33.5 and 381 €/t in big bag made culture in ammonitrate 27. They will have little choice but to fall if the prices of nitrogen solution and urea continue to fall, especially in a context of low demand. Although we have not been on a production cost issue for a long time, it should be noted that the price of gas has fallen by 15% in the last 1 month.
Urea:
Urea tax levels are broadly in line with recent expectations, although until a few weeks ago some scenarios envisaged significantly higher taxes.
The market is readjusting, with a decline of 10 €/t from La Pallice, for a price of 460 €/t in bulk. With the tax framework now more readable, suppliers, who have anticipated the tax's entry into force by importing large volumes, are seeking to sell their stocks and are positioning themselves more aggressively. This is a readjustment with clearer visibility that allows them to adjust prices. It will now be necessary to monitor whether the world market continues to fall sharply, which could also put a little more pressure on prices in France.
Phosphorus:
The expected decline for spring uses is beginning to be confirmed. After initial signals last week, some suppliers are now showing declines of up to €45/t. This correction is not yet widespread, but it should gradually spread to the whole market.
At this stage, the decrease is 5 €/t on average, with a price of 545 €/t departure Rouen for the TSP. Further adjustments are therefore expected in the coming weeks. As regards the DAP, no decrease has yet been observed, but it should follow the same trend despite the impact of the tax on the nitrogen component. The price of DAP is currently around 700 €/t.
Potash:
No change. Potash chloride is 360 €/t bulk departure Rouen.
Dec 17 - China lowers EU pork tariffs in final ruling after 18-month probe
China on Tuesday sharply reduced tariffs on European Union pork imports worth over $2 billion in the final ruling of an anti-dumping investigation seen as a response to the bloc's duties on Chinese electric vehicles. Some from the European pork industry voiced relief at the decision though they said the tariffs would still hurt.
Dec 17 - FranceAgriMer cuts non-EU wheat export forecast, raises EU demand
FranceAgriMer on Tuesday cut its 2025/26 forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the EU as Argentina's harvest is set to intensify overseas competition, but the farm office raised its outlook for intra-EU shipments on feed demand. High estimates for ongoing harvests in Argentina and Australia have weighed on wheat prices by reinforcing expectations of abundant global supply this season.
Dec 17 - Kazakhstan exported 3.4 million tons of grain from September 1 to December 17
Kazakhstan, the largest grain producer in Central Asia, exported 3.4 million metric tons of new-crop grain from September 1 to December 17, the agriculture vice-minister said. Kazakhstan, which traditionally supplies grain to neighbouring Central Asian countries as well as Iran, Azerbaijan and Afghanistan, has an export potential of 13 million metric tons, Azat Sultanov said.
Dec 17 - South Korea’s MFG tenders for up to 210,000 tons corn, traders say
South Korea's Major Feedmill Group has issued an international tender to purchase up to 210,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, European traders said. The corn is sought in three consignments of 55,000 to 70,000 tons for arrival in South Korea in March and April 2026.
Dec 16 - How Canada's farmers are producing record crops despite droughts and floods
When farmer Simon Ellis first drove his combine into this year's crop, he expected "catastrophic failure," after a season of flooding followed by a long drought. But instead of shriveled kernels, plump seeds of wheat, oats and soybeans poured into his combine.
Dec 16 - France says cattle disease under control as farm protests continue
France said on Monday the lumpy skin disease affecting cattle is under control in the country even as farmers continue a second week of protests against the government's handling of the virus by blocking highways with tractors and dumping manure. Lumpy skin disease is a virus spread by insects that affects cattle and buffalo, causing blisters and reducing milk production.
Dec 15 - The price of French lambs is always higher (Agreste)
80 cents higher between mid-August and mid-November, the weighted average price of French lamb had never seen such an increase. The previous record of Easter 2021 is blithely pulverized and, at 7.84 €/kg in week 46, the price exceeds by more than 10% its already high level of the same period last year. The offer is always quite reduced. According to Agreste, lamb slaughters fell by 3% in head and 2.3% in volume in October, which helps to drive the market up. Cumulatively over 10 months, the number of lambs slaughtered is substantially equal to that of 2020.
Another factor driving up prices was the fall in the availability of imported sheepmeat on the French market. While the customs figures say the opposite, with an increase of more than 30% in September, it is because they account for British volumes in transit to other countries. Agreste states: ‘After estimating re-exported volumes, imports destined for the French market would be down 6.9% compared to September 2020. They would be close to their 2019 level. »
Dec 15 - France boosts cattle vaccination against lumpy skin disease as farmers protest against culls
France will vaccinate 1 million head of cattle in coming weeks against lumpy skin disease, Agriculture Minister Annie Genevard said on Saturday, as farmers blocked highways and dumped manure near public buildings to protest against culls of herds. Several outbreaks of the highly contagious disease prompted authorities to order large-scale culls, sparking demonstrations by farmers who consider the measure excessive.
Dec 15 - NOPA November US soybean crush estimated at 220.285 million bushels
The U.S. soy crush likely slowed in November from an all-time high set a month earlier, according to analysts surveyed ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association report. NOPA members, who represent more than 99% of all U.S. soybean processing capacity, were estimated to have crushed 220.285 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from eight analysts surveyed by Reuters.
Dec 12 - Brazil crop agency cuts 2025/26 soy output forecast
Brazilian crop agency Conab lowered the country's 2025/26 soybean production forecast by around 550,000 metric tons on Thursday to 177.12 million tons, still a record if the projection is confirmed. The agency cited irregular rainfall in some areas last month, which meant farmers had to replant their fields.
Dec 12 - China's grain output rises 1.2% in 2025 to new record
China’s total grain output hit a new record this year, up 1.2% from 2024 to 714.9 million tons, its statistics bureau said, as Beijing prioritises higher output in its quest to achieve food security. China is highly reliant on imports to feed its population of 1.4 billion and several trade wars with major agricultural trade partner the United States have accelerated the push at home towards self-sufficiency including investments in machinery and seed technology.
Dec 12 - Sinograin plans second soybean auction as China prepares for US arrivals
China's state stockpiler Sinograin will auction another half a million metric tons of soybeans next week, its second such sale in as many weeks, as it moves to make room for U.S. arrivals amid ample domestic supplies. At the auction scheduled for 0530 GMT on Tuesday, Sinograin will offer 513,900 tons of imported soybeans produced between 2022 and 2024, the National Grain Trade Center said in a notice published.
Dec 12 - Jordan tenders to buy 120,000 metric tons feed barley, traders say
Jordan's state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is December 17.
Dec 11 - US farmers say Trump's $12 billion aid package won't cover losses
U.S. farmers facing steep losses this year welcomed President Donald Trump's $12 billion aid package announced on Monday, but said they would need more than that to fully offset low crop prices and lost export opportunities from his trade war. The aid will help farmers prepare for the next planting season, said five farmers and agricultural groups, four agricultural economists and three bankers.
Dec 11 - Trump administration allows six more states to restrict food stamp purchases
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Wednesday that she has granted waivers to six additional states allowing them to prevent the use of food stamps to purchase certain items, like soft drinks and candy. The administration of President Donald Trump has now allowed 18 states to implement a variety of restrictions on low-income recipients of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, also known as food stamps.
Dec 11 - Taiwan’s MFIG buys about 65,000 tons corn from US, traders say
Taiwan's MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender, European traders said. The yellow corn was purchased at an estimated premium of 202.79 U.S. cents a bushel cost and freight included over the Chicago May 2026 corn contract, they said.
Dec 11 - South Korea’s MFG buys 65,000 metric tons feed wheat, traders say
South Korea's Major Feedmill Group purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender, European traders said. One consignment was purchased at an estimated $260.50 a ton cost and freight included plus a $1.50 a ton surcharge for additional port unloading
Dec 10 - USDA leaves US soybean export outlook unchanged after China sales resume
The U.S. Department of Agriculture left its U.S. soybean export forecast unchanged in a monthly report on Tuesday as sales resumed to China, which for months shunned purchases because of its trade war with Washington. The USDA pegged soybean exports in the 2025/26 season that ends on August 31 at a 13-year low of 1.635 billion bushels, down 13% from the prior year.
Dec 10 - Argentina to lower grain export taxes, bolstering farm sector support for Milei
Argentina will lower export taxes on grains including soybeans and corn, the economy minister said on Tuesday, a move that was welcomed by the South American nation's powerful farming sector, which has been a core support base for President Javier Milei. Since campaigning for the presidency, Milei has told Argentine exporters that he wants to cut taxes but warned that he must do it in stages to avoid a too rapid fall in tax income.
Dec 10 - Taiwan’s MFIG tenders to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of corn
Taiwan's MFIG purchasing group has issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the U.S., Argentina, Brazil or South Africa, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Thursday, December 11, they said.
Dec 10 - French Weekly Fertilizer market context (Agryco)
The context has not changed since last week. We remain in a relatively calm market, with little changing prices and moderate demand. The main development to note concerns the first decreases observed on phosphorus.
This week, however, we should have information from the European Commission clarifying the amount of the MACF tax. The most likely scenario remains a lack of evolution in its implementation, despite the « will » displayed by the French president. The amounts announced should be high enough to prevent a significant decline in the market. The market should therefore remain firm, without experiencing a rise in prices, given the limited demand and the fact that the majority of the tax is already built into current prices.
If this scenario is confirmed, prices should stabilize around these levels. This does not exclude, however, a downward adjustment at the beginning of the year on certain nitrogen fertilizers if demand does not pick up again, particularly in view of the very comfortable margins of producers who could seek to restart activity. A rapid rise in prices could then follow. We must therefore remain attentive in the coming days to observe the impact of the announcements and in function to be able to potentially benefit from the last window of fire in the coming weeks before further increases.
Nitrogen solution:
Prices remain stable at 360 €/T for December/January deliveries and 365 €/T for February/March. The market is still awaiting information on the MACF tax, expected this week. We do not anticipate strong developments: the market is expected to remain broadly firm, with potential slight declines during the current period of weak demand.
Ammonitrate:
As with all nitrogen fertilizers, the market is stable. No significant changes are expected in the short term. However, declines could appear when the buying interest returns, in order to restore competitiveness against other forms of nitrogen and allow them to replenish their order books at the beginning of the year before quickly returning to new increases. Given their current level of margin, they will prefer to reduce a little if necessary and optimize their production.
Ammonitrate 33,5 is at 503,5 €/T in big bag, rendered culture and ammonitrate 27 is at 391 €/T in big bag, rendered culture.
Urea:
The situation remains unchanged, with a price of €470/T in bulk in La Pallice and a global market oriented downwards. However, this international decrease is not enough to offset the impact of the upcoming tax in Europe. Thus, no price reduction is expected on the French market at the moment. The only prospect of a fall could come from a current overestimation of the amount of the tax, details of which are due to be presented this week by the Commission.
Phosphorus:
The market had been waiting for several months for a correction, given high prices and lackluster global demand. After a resistance phase, the first drops materialize. The TSP 45 falls by 10 €/T, or 550 €/T in bulk from Rouen. It remains difficult to assess the extent of the downturn to come, but further declines are expected. The DAP remains at 700 €/T, a situation which should not, however, be prolonged with declines also expected.
Potash:
No change. Potash chloride is 360 € / T bulk departure Rouen.
Dec 09 - SovEkon lowered the forecast of Ukrainian corn exports in 2025/26 (SovEkon)
SovEkon lowered its forecast of Ukrainian maize exports in the 2025/26 season (July-June) by 0.4 million tons to 26.8 million tons against the backdrop of slow shipments in the first half of the season and significant supply in the world market.
Ukrainian maize exports totaled 3.7m tons from July to November, the lowest in eight years. The main reason for sluggish exports was delays in maize harvesting due to rains: at the beginning of December, Ukrainian farmers threshed 78% of the acreage planted under maize, compared to 96% a year earlier.
The high global supply of maize creates additional problems for Ukrainian shipments. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates U.S. corn exports this season at a record 78 million tons. Exports from the main producers of South America (Argentina, Brazil) are expected to be at 80 million tons, which will be the highest figure in the last five years.
An important factor was the increased attacks on Ukrainian rail infrastructure (including depots) in the fall, which created problems with grain transportation inside the country
Ukrainian maize exports accelerated seasonally in November, with 1.8m tons shipped in a month compared to 0.9m tons in October, as harvests intensified. At the same time, exports still lag behind last year's figure of 2.6 million tons and the long-term average of 2.9 million tons.
In November, the US Ministry of Agriculture estimated Ukrainian maize exports at 24.5 million tons.
SovEkon estimates the Ukrainian maize harvest at 32.0m tons compared to 26.9m tons a year earlier, despite harvest delays. With a delayed acceleration of the export program, shipments are likely to peak at a later date, which will put pressure on quotes with a high global supply.
Dec 09 - Trump unveils $12 billion aid package for farmers hit by trade war
U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday unveiled a $12 billion aid package for American farmers, the latest government effort to shore up a key political constituency hurt by the financial fallout from his trade policies. Farm groups and Republican farm-state lawmakers have sought the aid in part to support farmers with purchases of seeds, fertilizer and other expenses for next year's growing season.
Dec 09 - China's Sinograin sets first imported soybean auction in three months after US trade truce
China's state stockpiler Sinograin will auction 512,500 metric tons of imported soybeans on Thursday, its first such sale in three months, after a trade truce with Washington led to an increase in U.S. purchases. The soybeans, produced between 2022 and 2023, will be offered at 0530 GMT on December 11, the National Grain Trade Center said in a notice published on Monday.
Dec 09 - South Korea’s KFA tenders for up to 136,000 tons corn, traders say
South Korea’s Korea Feed Association has issued an international tender to purchase up to 136,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, European traders said on Monday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Tuesday, December 9.
Dec 08 - Barva Invest Reports
EURUSD – 1.1648
USDUAH - 42.0567 (NBU)
Wheat DAP-Deep Sea Ports (11.5%) - 212-217+ $/t
Wheat quotes on Friday continued to decline, remaining under pressure from a heavier global foundation.
· USDA forecasts wheat sowing areas in the USA in the 25/26 season at 44 million acres, which is 1.3 million acres lower than the current season.
· According to the USG of France, 99% of the area of soft wheat was sown in the country compared to 98% last week. The condition of crops for the week deteriorated by 1%, to 96% in good and excellent condition.
Activity in the Ukrainian market remains weak due to both the restrained offer and the consequences of the Russian Federation's strikes on the energy, port and railway infrastructure of Ukraine.
Corn DAP-Deep Sea Ports - 202-208+ $/t
Corn quotes at the end of last week showed a decline, exhausting the potential of support from the good dynamics of American exports.
· USDA predicts 95 million acres of corn in the United States for the 25/26 season, 3.7 million acres lower than the current season.
· According to StoneX, in Brazil, 70.6% of the first corn harvest for the 2025-26 season was sown compared to 67.7% last week and 80.6% in the previous season.
· South Korea holds a tender for the purchase of 136 thousand tons of corn.
Prices for Ukrainian corn continued to weaken against the background of the decline in the supply deficit at the spot and the complications of the ports after Russian strikes on the Ukrainian infrastructure.
Dec 08 - Soy in Ukraine continues to rise in price gradually amid strong demand and limited supply (APK-Inform)
- A slight upward price trend for soybeans persisted in Ukrainian ports, which was mainly caused by high competition in this sector between processors and exporters for a significantly smaller harvest and supply of soy in the current year.
- Foreign-currency demand prices fluctuated within $416-425 per ton CPT-port and sometimes reached $430 per ton CPT-port. Demand prices in hryvnia were voiced within 18.200-18.500 UAH per ton CPT-port.
- In the domestic soybean market, the increase in prices also remained amid active exports of soybean meal.
Dec 08 - Sunflower in Ukraine continues to rise gradually in price (APK-Inform)
- During the past week, the rise in prices in Ukraine’s sunflower market persisted, which was mainly supported by strong competition between processors for the available supply.
- Taking into account the rather significant reduction in oilseed production in 2025, the overall supply of raw materials, although seasonally quite high, remains insufficient under the conditions of increasing processing capacities, especially in the central and southern regions. A slight positive price trend in the sunflower oil sector also supported the continuation of the rising trend in the sunflower sector, although raw material prices were increasing more intensively compared with the market of processed products. Purchasing prices for sunflower rose to 28,400–29,500 UAH per ton CPT-enterprise.
- Indicatively, companies more focused on processing soy or rapeseed voiced demand prices for sunflower from 27,500–27,700 UAH per ton CPT.
Dec 08 - China set for record 2025 soybean imports on Brazil buys, US trade truce
China's soybean imports reached their highest November level since 2021, a Reuters calculation based on customs data showed, with full-year arrivals set for a record amid strong purchases from South America and a U.S. trade truce. The world's top soybean buyer brought in 8.11 million metric tons in November, the General Administration of Customs said, up 13.4% from 7.15 million tons a year earlier.
Dec 05 - SPIKE BROKERS Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market
Part I. Grain Crops
- Ukraine
· As of 04.12, 53.5 million tons of cereals and legumes were threshed. Oilseeds (including soybean) - 17.1 million tons against 19.8 million tons last year.
· Among the later crops, corn harvesting with an increase of 1 million tons per week and a shaft of 23.5 million tons continues. Sunflower and soybean harvesting can be considered complete with crops of 9 and 4.7 million tons, respectively.
· Total exports in November amounted to 4.4 million tons against 5.5 million tons last year. Including: wheat - 1 million tons (1.1 million tons), rape - 184 thousand tons (290 thousand tons), corn - 1.9 million tons (2.6 million tons), barley - 100 thousand tons (150 thousand tons), soybeans - 455 thousand tons (415 thousand tons), sunflower oil - 366 thousand tons (508 thousand tons), sunflower and soybean meal - 446 thousand tons (356 thousand tons).
- About railway logistics
As of 04.12.25, in the direction of the ports of Big Odessa, the accumulation significantly decreased relative to last week to 9,386 weights/day (-697), which is the equivalent of 660 thousand tons (+40 thousand tons). The average rate of loading is 1402 scales/day (+40), unloading is 1317 scales/day (+21).
According to the current dynamics, by 31.12.25 the maximum potential for unloading wagons in ports is about 46 thousand wagons (≈2.6 million tons), and the risk of cars accumulated along the way decreased by 31.12 to 11,680. It is necessary to actively use the western border for unloading ports.
In the direction of the western border, the average daily shipment continues to grow, and the transfer of wagons increased to 169 weights/day (+34; +25% to 31.10.25). Shipments to Europe through all border crossings are increasing.
- CORN
Ukraine has exported 1.9 million tons of corn in November to 2.6 million tons last year. The external context is gradually not in favor of Ukraine. The delay in harvesting and logistics restraint of corn exports can cost Ukrainian exporters up to $200 million due to the inability to ship products in time.
The corn sowing campaign in Argentina is 44% complete, and the conditions of the future crop of the state have improved well-superbly to 79% against last year 26%.
Situational improvement of the rhythm of unloading wagons in ports and the active inclusion of cars in export logistics have caused a rapid saturation of the needs of ports and exporters in the product.
The export price of corn still has a premium of up to $10, which can quickly adjust prices in the near future.
Spot index for corn with delivery to the port within 30 days declined rapidly at the end of the week by $3 - to $207.
The western border continues to ship corn in the main direction of Italy.
FCA Chop actively traded for the period January-February in the range of €187-188, loaded into a euro car.
- WHEAT
The decrease in the activity of traders and exporters in the direction of ports significantly weakened the support of wheat prices. The collapse of the price of food wheat began at first by 5-6$, while the price of feed wheat lost less - 1$. The increase in the supply of wheat on the international market from Russia and the expected harvest from Canada and Australia has significantly added to the confidence of world importers to have a sufficient supply. The active struggle for wheat markets is just beginning.
The spot index on food wheat (11.5% protein) with delivery to the port within 30 days decreased by $4 - to $216. The index of forage wheat also decreased by $1 - to $209.
Dec 05 - SPIKE BROKERS Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market
Part II. Oilseeds
- SUNFLOWER AND ITS PROCESSING PRODUCTS
Sunflower harvesting can be considered complete with a shaft of 9 million tons against the expected 11 million tons. The market of oil and processing has not received at least 2 million tons this year, which will significantly complicate the work of processors and sharpen the context of the international market through the saturation of processed products.
Prices for sunflower oil in six ports in Northern Europe rose by €20 relative to last week — to $1’350 at the end of the week.
In the Turkish direction, the proposals increased to $1'315-1'320 CIF Mersin/Iskenderun.
Oil and oil meal in the direction of Odesa ports were traded without significant changes at $1’230-1’240, and sunflower meal — $220/225 (scattering/pellets).
Demand for sunflower began to grow from factories, which immediately reflected in the purchase prices.
Spot price index of sunflower with delivery for processing within 30 days increased by $9 with VAT — to $699.
- RAPESEED
Prices for non-GMO rape vary within 25-26 thousand UAH with VAT, depending on the delivery location. The plants are gradually moving to the cleaning and processing of soybeans and sunflower.
The cost of processing rapeseed ranges from 50-70 USD, including VAT, depending on the plant, volume and month of delivery.
- SOYA
Soybean exports increased in November to 455 thousand tons against 415 thousand tons last year. Given the presence of export barriers to the trade in the form of soybean-rapeseed edits, it can be argued that it is not difficult for producers to sell soybean for export, which is a more profitable direction of sales.
Soya GMO traded at $420-425 with delivery in the direction of seaports.
In the direction of the western border, prices for GMO and non-GMO soybeans were adjusted to 370 and 390 EUR/t FCA Chop with delivery in January-February.
Spot price index of GMO soybean for export with delivery within 30 days increased by $2 without VAT — up to $424.
The spot index of GMO soybean for processing increased by $5 — to $461 from VAT.
The prize for non-GMO soybeans continues to decline to $20-25 relative to the price of soybeans GMO.
Dec 05 - Brazil soy exports jump 64% in November ahead of Chinese shift to US
Brazil's soybean exports jumped 64% in November from a year ago to 4.2 million metric tons, the government said on Thursday, with good local supply allowing elevated shipments before the world's largest importer China shifts to United States' beans. Brazil soy exports normally fall towards the end of the year as the country approaches the new harvest late on January or early February, but a record crop in 2025 means there are still enough supplies to keep foreign sales going, grain exports lobby Anec said on Thursday.
Dec 05 - Canada produced record wheat and canola crops, larger barley and oats in 2025, government says
Statistics Canada on Thursday forecast bigger than expected canola, wheat, barley and oat crops, and analysts said record canola and wheat crops will likely contribute to lower crop prices. In its final crop production report of the year for the now harvested 2025/2026 crops, the agency pegged canola production at 21.8 million metric tons, above trade expectations of 21.25 million.
Dec 05 - Jordan tenders to buy 120,000 metric tons feed barley, traders say
Jordan's state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is December 10.
Dec 04 - Brazil's 2025 chicken exports to rise despite bird flu trade bans
Brazilian chicken exports are expected to rise up to 0.5% this year to 5.32 million metric tons, meat lobby ABPA said on Wednesday, after exporters avoided trade bans triggered by a bird flu outbreak in May, including from key buyers China, Japan and the European Union. Before the outbreak in Rio Grande do Sul state, which Brazil controlled in the space of roughly a month, ABPA had projected chicken exports growing by up to 1.9% to 5.4 million tons.
Dec 04 - Algeria buys 810,000 to 900,000 metric tons milling wheat in tender, traders say
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has bought about 810,000 to around 900,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed on Wednesday, European traders said. There was still a wide range of tonnage estimates on Wednesday evening, but traders said about 10 trading companies made sales in the tender, indicating a substantial purchase above initial estimates.
Dec 03 - Export prices for Russian wheat fall (SovEkon)
Since mid-November, export quotes of Russian wheat with protein 12.5% fell by $4/t to $228-230/t FOB, follows from the price monitoring of "SovEkon". Prices fell to their lowest level since mid-September amid strong competition with Australian and Argentine wheat.
Export prices are falling under the pressure of good harvests in the Southern Hemisphere. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates the yield of Argentine wheat in the 2025/26 season at a record 25.5 million tons. Australian Bureau ABARES estimates the production of wheat at 35.6 million tons, which could be the third largest for Australia on record.
In Argentina, prices fell by $7/t to $208/t FOB from mid-November, in Australia - by $4/t to $249/t FOB.
Large buyers of wheat may soon suspend purchases, waiting for the arrival of the southern harvest. First of all, this may concern Egypt, the main buyer of wheat for Russia. In November, media reported that the amount of wheat purchased by Egypt is sufficient to meet domestic needs until the end of February 2026.
Slow farmers' sales in many parts of the world are supporting prices. Farmers have been slow to sell wheat because prices are often close to or below cost.
An additional factor is the relatively low global wheat reserves. According to SovEkon calculations, the ratio of carry-over stocks to consumption in the current season for the main exporting countries will be 16.6%, which is slightly higher than the values of the previous two seasons in 15.1-15.4%, but significantly lower than the maximum of 19.4%.
The high yield in the southern hemisphere may not yet be fully reflected in the market, but, given historically low stocks, the potential for price decline appears limited.
Dec 03 - Weekly French Fertilizer market context (Agryco)
The market remained calm this week, with demand weaker than in recent weeks. This situation is not surprising in a context of global wait-and-see, both on the market side and farmers, who prefer to wait for more visibility on the potential developments of the MACF tax.
Overall, the market remains stable at the level of producers, who do not feel an immediate obligation to sell at this stage, especially after the strong activity observed in recent weeks. The latter remain awaiting developments on the MACF file and seem, for the time being, to favor a full maintenance of the tax. Nevertheless, some price adjustments could be observed in crops, notably related to inventory sales by resellers.
The coming week should be a continuation of the previous one, with few major developments expected.
It should also be noted that the price of gas has fallen, in connection with the negotiations between the United States and Russia concerning the Ukrainian conflict. A significant development on this issue could, of course, reshuffle the cards. For now, a resolution of the conflict seems to be slipping away again, but the situation remains to be monitored closely.
Nitrogen solution:
The market stabilized at last week's levels, with prices of €360/t for December/January deliveries and €365/t for February/March. In case of firm demand accompanied by significant volumes, suppliers seem open to drop by a few euros in view of the low demand.
Producers' discourse remains steadfast, which remains consistent with the market situation. However, weak demand and uncertainties related to the MACF could lead to a slight decline in prices. In the absence of major developments on the MACF dossier and on the Ukrainian conflict, no significant market downturn seems likely.
Ammonitrate:
Ammonidate has not evolved. Ammonitrate 33.5 is at 503.5 €/t in big bag, rendered culture and ammonitrate 27 is at 391 €/t in big bag, rendered culture. In the event of a firm purchase, suppliers are prepared to slightly downgrade their offers. The underlying trend is still stability for the time being.
Urea:
There are no significant changes to report, with a price of 470 €/t bulk in La Pallice. The North African market declined, as expected last week, but with no impact on Europe due to the upcoming imposition of taxes. A larger correction would be needed to have an effect on our market. In the short term, prices are expected to remain stable, possibly with a slight downward trend.
Phosphorus:
The DAP market has relaxed and stabilized around €700/t in bulk from Rouen. In view of the high price level and limited demand in Europe, a decline in the coming weeks is still possible. The trend is similar for the TSP with a price of 560 €/t in bulk departure Rouen.
Potash:
No change. Potash chloride is 360 €/t bulk departure Rouen.
Dec 03 - US to announce ‘bridge payment’ for farmers next week, Rollins says
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Tuesday that the Trump administration will announce a “bridge payment” for farmers next week that is designed to provide short-term relief while longer trade and aid packages are finalized. Farm groups and Republican lawmakers have pushed the administration to issue aid as farmers face low crop prices and billions in lost soybean sales to China during tense trade talks between the two countries.
Dec 03 - Russian gross weight grain harvest above 145 million tons, says deputy PM
Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, has harvested more than 145 million metric tons of grain in gross weight this year, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev, who oversees the Russian agriculture sector,said on Tuesday. The volume of grain in clean weight could be significantly lower due to bad weather that accompanied the harvesting campaign, Patrushev said in remarks posted on the government's website.
Dec 03 - More US soybean shipments to China due to load through mid-December
Shipments of U.S. crops to China are accelerating after a tense tariff war had stalled trade for months, with at least six bulk cargo vessels scheduled to load with soybeans at Gulf Coast terminals through mid-December, according to a shipping schedule seen by Reuters on Tuesday. A seventh U.S. soybean cargo was loaded over the past weekend and is already en route to China, the first such shipment since May.
Dec 03 - Group in Thailand tendering to buy up to 240,000 metric tons feed wheat, traders say
A group of importers in Thailand has issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat, European traders said on Tuesday. The deadline for submission of price offers is Wednesday, December 3, with 2026 shipment sought.
Dec 02 - Ukraine's 2026 wheat crop seen at 24 million-25 million tons, official says
Ukraine's wheat harvest could rise to between 24 million and 25 million tons in 2026 from 23 million tons in 2025, Ukrainian deputy economy minister Taras Vysotskiy said on Monday in the first official estimate of the output. "We are currently operating in the range of 24-25 million tons," Vysotskiy told Reuters in a written comment.
Dec 02 - Spain to resume pork exports to China from regions unaffected by swine fever outbreak
Spain, which is mobilising to contain an outbreak of African swine fever in Barcelona, received confirmation from major pork importer China on Monday that it can resume pork exports to the country from all other regions, its agriculture minister said. Spain halted all pork shipments to China on Friday as a precaution until Beijing confirmed it had implemented a protocol signed earlier this year which meant it would only ban imports from regions affected by the virus.
Dec 02 - Algeria issues tender to buy nominal 50,000 tons soft milling wheat, traders say
Algeria's state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The tender sought a nominal 50,000 metric tons, but Algeria often buys considerably more in its tenders than the nominal volume sought.
Dec 01 - Australia set to raise crop estimates as harvest exceeds expectations
Australia is likely to raise its wheat, barley and canola production estimates this week, with timely pre-harvest rain in the south and higher yields in the west boosting output, a survey of analysts shows. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences will publish updated production estimates on Tuesday.
Dec 01 - Eight more suspected swine fever cases as Spain struggles to limit export damage
Eight more wild boar with suspected cases of African swine fever were discovered near Barcelona, La Vanguardia newspaper reported on Sunday, as Spain struggles to limit the damage to a pork export industry worth billions of euros a year. Two cases have been confirmed, and 12 others have shown signs they may also have the disease but are undergoing tests to confirm this.
Dec 01 - India-Canada trade deal could guarantee some Canadian pulse sales, envoy says
India's government is considering guaranteeing Canada ongoing pulse crop sales so its farmers keep growing the vital protein source, Indian High Commissioner to Canada Dinesh Patnaik said during a visit to Saskatchewan. The leaders of India and Canada have agreed to restart negotiations for a comprehensive trade deal as diplomatic relations thaw under Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Nov 28 - Brazil soy crop to reach record 178.1 million tons, Agroconsult's first forecast shows
Brazilian soybean farmers are expected to harvest a record crop of 178.1 million metric tons in the 2025/26 season, agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult said on Thursday in its first estimate of the current crop. During an industry event in Sao Paulo, Andre Pessoa, head of Agroconsult, said the area planted with soybeans is expected to grow by 2.1% to 48.8 million hectares.
Nov 28 - EU raises estimates of wheat and maize crops
The European Commission on Thursday increased its estimate of 2025/26 usable production of soft wheat in the European Union to 134.2 million metric tons from the 133.4 million forecast last month. In monthly supply and demand data, the Commission also raised its estimate of EU usable production of maize in 2025/26, to 57.6 million tons from 56.8 million expected last month.
Nov 28 - Brazil agriculture ministry says China banned five soy exporters
The Brazilian agriculture ministry has been notified by Chinese authorities that five Brazilian soy exporters have been banned from shipping the grain to the Asian country, it said on Thursday. On Wednesday, Brazilian newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo reported that China had stopped 69,000 metric tons of Brazilian soybeans from entering its territory after finding wheat treated with pesticides in the hold of the ship transporting the cargo.
Nov 28 - Tunisia buys estimated 75,000 metric tons barley in tender seeking up to 125,000 tons, traders say
Tunisia's state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 75,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Thursday seeking up to 125,000 tons, European traders said. The barley was said to have been bought in three 25,000 ton consignments, two at $268.42 and $269.42 a ton cost and freight included from trading house Aston and one at $269.58 a ton c&f from Soufflet.
Nov 27 - China bars Brazil soy cargo on contamination grounds, Folha reports
China has barred 69,000 metric tons of Brazilian soybeans after finding wheat coated with pesticides in the ship's hold where one cargo was being transported, newspaper Folha de S.Paulo reported on Wednesday citing a letter sent from Chinese to Brazilian authorities at an unspecified date. According to Folha's report, exports from two Cargill plants as well as others controlled by Louis Dreyfus, CHS Agronegocio and 3Tentos will be suspended in connection with the incident.
Nov 27 - Bayer unveils new soy seed for Brazil's farmers
German conglomerate Bayer on Wednesday said it will sell a new soybean product called Intacta 5+ for farmers in Brazil, the world's largest exporter and producer of the oilseed, as it seeks to perpetuate the use of genetically engineered seeds in the South American country. Bayer in a statement said commercial varieties with the new biotechnology are expected to be ready for the 2027/28 crop season, pending regulatory approvals and business decisions in Brazil and abroad.
Nov 27 - Barley exports from Russia to Egypt at a historic high this year, export agency says
Russia exported a record volume of barley to Egypt in January to October this year of more than 32,000 tons, Russia's state agriculture export agency Agroexport said on Wednesday. The bulk of the shipments, worth a total of almost $8 million, took place in October.
Nov 27 - South Korea flour mills buy estimated 131,300 tons of US and Canadian milling wheat, traders say
A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 131,300 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States and Canada in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said. The purchase involved 91,300 tons sourced from the United States, believed to have been sold by United Grain Corporation in two consignments.
Nov 26 - China buys at least 10 US soybean cargoes in new deals after Trump-Xi call, sources say
China bought at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans worth around $300 million in contracts signed since Tuesday, two traders with knowledge of the deals said, a day after the presidents of both countries spoke on the phone. The purchases of the unusually large volumes extend a surge in Chinese buying after the recent thaw in U.S.-China trade relations.
Nov 26 - EU 2025/26 soft wheat exports down 5% by Nov 21 with more data missing
European Union soft wheat exports so far in 2025/26 are down 5% from the same week last year, though this season's volume lacked two days of figures for the latest week, the European Commission said on Tuesday. EU soft wheat exports since the start of the 2025/26 season in July had reached 9.19 million metric tons by November 21, compared with 9.69 million a year ago, the Commission said in a weekly report.
Nov 26 - Wet grain, Russian attacks on railways hit Ukrainian corn exports, union says
High grain moisture content and logistical woes caused by Russian attacks have slashed Ukraine's corn exports from Black Sea ports in November and may do so again in December, farmers' union UAC said on Tuesday. This year, however, harvesting was significantly delayed by rains in most regions, and the harvested corn was saturated and required additional drying.
Nov 26 - South Korea’s FLC tenders to buy up to 138,000 tons corn, traders say
South Korea's Feed Leaders Committee has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, European traders said on Tuesday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is also Tuesday, November 25.
Nov 26 - French Fertilizer market context (Agryco)
After several weeks of growth, the market has finally stabilized. One reason for the lull was the announcement of potential discussions around the MACF tax, with the aim of limiting its impact on farmers. This announcement, made by Emmanuel Macron, however, does not depend on him alone, but on all European countries, which may greatly complicate decisions.
Last week, other countries joined France's request to find a way to reduce the impact of this tax, especially since current cereal prices are not at all consistent with those of fertilizers. We invite you to reread Julie's recommendations from last week as well as those from this week for more details on this subject, to which we remain very attentive given its importance, both downwards and upwards.
In any case, this announcement has had the merit of temporarily calming the market: prices have remained stable at the level of producers. At this stage, it is difficult to identify a medium-term trend, as the situation remains dependent on future announcements regarding the MACF tax.
For the coming week, unless specifically announced, prices are expected to remain generally stable, with possibly slight declines initiated by some resellers wishing to reduce their stocks. With no further announcement in the coming weeks, the market is expected to remain firm at the producer level. On the other hand, a positive announcement could have a significant impact and pull prices down. For early inflows, it is always strongly advised to cover yourself especially for logistical reasons.
Nitrogen solution:
The drop in demand related to the MACF announcement prevented producers from pushing prices up to €375/T in February/March delivery. The market stabilized around €365/T, a decrease of around €3/T compared to last week. In January delivery, prices remained broadly at the same level, around 360 €/T.
Given the current uncertainty, more measured demand and a comfortable level of sales among producers, we should enter a phase of stagnation, waiting to see whether the market will move up or down. Much of the evolution will depend on MACF announcements:
- Full maintenance of the system: prices should rise again in view of the tensions on this market.
- Easing/elimination: prices could stabilize or decrease, depending on the extent of the changes.
Careful monitoring of the market and news will be essential.
Ammonitrate:
Ammonidate prices have also stabilized compared to last week:
- Ammonitrate 33,5: 503,5 €/T in big bag, rendered culture
- Ammonitrate 27: 391 €/T in big bag, rendered culture
This market could fall back later if demand remains weak and the overall market relaxes, given that the majority of production is European and that Europe is also its main market. For the time being, stability remains the most likely scenario at producer level.
Urea:
Urea has undergone a slight readjustment, due to lower demand due to uncertainties over the tax. The price fell by 5 €/T from La Pallice to 470 €/T.
Even if a further decrease of around €5/T remains possible, the trend is not clearly bearish for the moment: this movement corresponds mainly to an adjustment following the announcement. If the tax were to change, the impact could be significant, especially since prices from North Africa are expected to fall over the month.
However, this reduction would only be reflected in Europe if the tax were to be reduced or withdrawn — a scenario that is still very uncertain and could take time to apply.
The market could still sell around €5/T this week, but is expected to remain broadly stable for the time being.
Phosphorus:
The DAP, slightly under pressure for two weeks, could relax in the coming weeks. The price now stands at 700 €/T in bulk from Rouen, an improvement of 5 €/T which brings the market back to its level of fifteen days ago.
The TSP 45 remains stable to bearish, still at 560 €/T in bulk from Rouen.
Potash:
Still no change in this market. Potash chloride is 360 € / T bulk departure Rouen.
Nov 25 - USDA expects deals on farmer aid, Chinese soy buys within weeks
The Trump administration expects to announce an aid package for U.S. farmers within two weeks and a deal on Chinese soybean purchases, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Monday, without providing further details. The administration of President Donald Trump has said for months that it would issue aid for farmers hit by low crop prices and trade disputes, but has not yet issued any plan or amount for the aid. .
Nov 25 - Winter wheat condition ratings tick higher as planting winds down
Seeding of the 2026 U.S. winter wheat crop is nearly over, with condition ratings rising to 48% good-excellent from 45% the prior week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its weekly report. Beneficial rains over the U.S. Plains over the previous week helped boost moisture levels, though roughly one-quarter of the crop is still too dry, analysts said.
Nov 25 - Three vessels bound for US Gulf Coast terminals to load soybeans, sorghum for China
Two cargo vessels were headed for grain port terminals near New Orleans on Monday to load with the first U.S. soybean shipments to China since May, according to a shipping schedule seen by Reuters. A third vessel was en route to a Texas Gulf Coast grain terminal to be loaded with China-bound U.S. sorghum in the coming days in what will be the first American shipment of the feed grain to China since mid-March, the shipping schedule showed.
Nov 25 - Saudi Arabia buys 300,000 metric tons of wheat in tender, GFSA says
Saudi Arabia's main state wheat buying agency, the General Food Security Authority (GFSA), said on Monday it has purchased 300,000 metric tons of wheat in a tender. The purchase involved hard wheat with 12.5% protein content for arrival in Saudi Arabia in February and April 2026, the agency said.
Nov 24 - Farmers sell cereals and oilseeds at record speed amid 25% drop in income (SovEkon)
Sales of cereals and oilseeds by farmers in the fall of 2025 are proceeding at a record pace against the backdrop of the difficult financial situation of farmers, SovEkon notes in its report.
In September, grain sales by Russian agricultural producers according to Rosstat amounted to 11.0 million tons, which was the highest figure on record. Oilseeds were sold in the same period, 1.7 million tons, the highest for a month and a repeat of the record set in September 2020 before the imposition of export duties on sunflower.
In October, grain farmers sold 9.3m tons, the largest month since October 2022, when 9.9m tons were sold. Strong sales in 2022 were linked to a record harvest. Oil sales totaled 3.0 million tons, the second largest on record after 3.1 million tons in December 2023.
We believe the surge in sales reflects growing financial pressure on farmers, many of whom are having to sell crops to repay loans and finance the winter planting campaign. According to the calculations of SovEkon, the pre-tax profit of producers of cereals and oilseeds in January-August 2025 amounted to 67 billion rubles, which is 25% lower than the level of the previous year.
Grain prices have been declining as sales have rebounded. The average price of wheat with protein 12.5% in the European part of Russia by mid-November fell to 13 600 rubles / t (-7% compared to the beginning of August). Sunflower prices fell to 35,675 rubles, 2% below the peak of the season, recorded in September.
We believe that farmers will be forced to continue selling their products, which will put pressure on domestic and international prices. In general, the situation in agriculture is likely to continue to deteriorate in the coming years, provided the export restrictions imposed in recent years are maintained.
Nov 24 - China's largest US soybean buy in 2 years buoys prices, triggers sales by struggling farmers
The largest U.S. soybean sales to China in more than two years this week could be just the beginning of an accelerated buying program by Beijing after the world's top importer shunned U.S. supplies for months due to a trade war with Washington. Even if purchases fall short of the 12 million metric tons that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced, the uptick in sales has buoyed crop prices.
Nov 24 - Tyson Foods to close major US beef plant as cattle supplies dwindle
Tyson Foods will close a major beef plant in Lexington, Nebraska, with about 3,200 employees in January after U.S. cattle supplies dropped to their lowest level in nearly 75 years, the meatpacker said on Friday. The closure in the heart of cattle-feeding country signaled that supplies will remain tight, forcing meatpackers to pay steep prices for cattle to process into steaks and hamburgers.
Nov 24 - Western Australia heads for record grain harvest as GIWA raises production estimates
The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia on Friday raised estimated 2025/26 wheat production by 420,000 metric tons, cementing expectations for a large Australian harvest that will put downward pressure on global prices. With crops already being reaped, GIWA in a monthly report also raised its forecasts for Western Australian barley production by 200,000 tons and canola production by 480,000 tons.
Nov 21 - Trump signs order to remove tariffs from Brazilian beef, coffee
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday removed his 40% tariffs on Brazilian food products, including beef, coffee, cocoa and fruits that were imposed in July to punish Brazil over the prosecution of its former president, Trump ally Jair Bolsonaro. The move follows a similar order by the administration last Friday to remove tariffs on several agricultural products from other countries as the White House makes a U-turn on some tariffs that have increased the cost of food in the United States.
Nov 21 - IGC raises 2025/26 world wheat, corn crop forecasts
Global stocks of grain are set to increase during the 2025/26 season for the first time in four years, the International Grains Council said on Thursday as it raised its forecasts for both wheat and corn crops. "The larger global harvest will more than compensate for the tightest opening stocks in ten seasons, boosting overall supply by 3%, to an all-time peak," the IGC said.
Nov 21 - South Korea’s MFG/Cargill Agri Purina tenders for 140,000 tons corn
South Korea's Major Feedmill Group and its partner company Cargill Agri Purina have issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, European traders said on Thursday. It can be sourced from South America or South Africa only. The corn is sought in two consignments of 55,000 to 70,000 tons, both for arrival in South Korea in April, 2026.
Nov 20 - S&P Global sees US farmers planting less corn, more soy in 2026
S&P Global Energy projected that U.S. farmers would reduce U.S. corn plantings in 2026 by 3.8% compared to 2025 while increasing soybean plantings by 4%, the firm said in a note released to clients on Tuesday. The firm, which changed its name last week from S&P Global Commodity Insights, projected U.S. 2026 corn plantings at 95.0 million acres, down 3.7 million acres from 2025, and soybean plantings at 84.5 million acres, up 3.4 million on the year.
Nov 20 - China imports no US soybeans for second month, Brazil arrivals up 29%
China imported no soybeans from the U.S. for a second straight month in October even as total imports surged to a record high on purchases from South America, with buyers aiming to avert supply disruptions amid trade tensions with Washington. Data from China's General Administration of Customs showed U.S. soybean imports in October fell to zero from 541,434 metric tons a year earlier.
Nov 20 - Ukraine will not limit wheat exports in 2025/26, says deputy minister
Brazilian soymeal exports in November are estimated at 2.68 million metric tons, a roughly 200,000-ton rise compared to last week's forecast, putting Brazil on track to hit a monthly record for shipments. According to data from grain exporters group Anec on Wednesday, the previous monthly record was set in October of last year, when Brazil exported 2.46 million tons of soymeal, which is mainly used as animal feed and is mainly destined for importers in Europe and Asia.
Nov 20 - Brazil soymeal exports to hit record in November, Anec data shows
Brazilian soymeal exports in November are estimated at 2.68 million metric tons, a roughly 200,000-ton rise compared to last week's forecast, putting Brazil on track to hit a monthly record for shipments. According to data from grain exporters group Anec on Wednesday, the previous monthly record was set in October of last year, when Brazil exported 2.46 million tons of soymeal, which is mainly used as animal feed and is mainly destined for importers in Europe and Asia.
Nov 19 - China receives first shipment of Argentine soybean meal since 2019 import approval
A cargo of Argentine soybean meal has cleared Chinese customs, two China-based traders said, marking the first such shipment since Beijing approved such imports in 2019 and signalling a new trade channel with the world's top soymeal exporter. The ship Sumatra, carrying 30,000 metric tons of Argentine soybean meal, departed Argentina in September and arrived at Nansha port in southern Guangdong province in late October, according to maritime agency NABSA and LSEG ship-tracking data.
Nov 19 - EU wheat exports back on track after French data delays
EU soft wheat exports, which had been lagging due to missing French data, are now matching last year's volume, European Commission data showed on Tuesday. Since the start of the 2025/26 season in July, EU soft wheat exports had reached 9.05 million metric tons by November 16, compared with 9.09 million at the same point last year.
Nov 19 - French Fertilizer market context (Agryco)
The upward trend continues for the moment in the nitrogen fertilizer market. Demand remains surprisingly high in cultivation despite strong price increases, again highlighting the very significant backlog that had been accumulated.
On the other hand, distributor demand seems to be slowing down among producers, which should now help to curb the increase at producer level. We could see prices stabilize around their current levels for the next few weeks.
In cultivation, some additional increases may occur in connection with stock ends purchased earlier, but they would not reflect the trend at the producer level.
The French government has announced that it is working at European level to find a compensation mechanism for the MACF tax on fertilizers. However, no concrete ideas have been mentioned at this time. A priori, it would not be a question of withdrawing the tax, but rather of establishing a form of financial compensation. The whole remains very vague (modalities, deadlines, mechanisms, etc.). For the time being, this seems more like a hasty political response aimed at quelling the first demonstrations against the tax and MERCOSUR than a realistic short-term response, because such a decision would require the agreement of all European countries.
Nevertheless, it remains important to follow this issue, which could materialize in one form or another in the longer term: even if it is probably too late to influence the first inputs, this could impact prices on the last inputs of the season and especially next year, in a context where French farmers will have to face both a declining global cereal market and increasingly strong regulatory and fiscal constraints.
Nitrogen solution:
Availability of products, especially transport, is very limited in December. However, the producers have published their prices for January and February/March. Unsurprisingly, the increase continues in view of the tensions of November/December. Producers know that many needs remain to be met, to which will be added resupplies.
The nitrogen solution thus takes +5 €/T on January and +13 €/T on February/March. The starting price in Rouen is 360 €/T in January and 368 €/T in February/March.
Producers have announced that they are aiming for 375 €/T departure from Rouen this week, a level already practiced by a major player last week. This price of 375 €/T should constitute a ceiling and may never really be successful, even if small volumes could be achieved given the demand; this will however remain marginal. It seems difficult to see the nitrogen solution going beyond in the current context.
However, producers have remained in a strong position since the beginning of the season, with a lack of availability that will keep prices high, even if the nitrogen solution is more expensive than other forms of nitrogen.
Ammonitrate:
The ammonitrate also takes its ladle of increase, with an ammonitrate 33.5 which takes 7 €/T to 503.5 €/T in big bag rendered culture and an ammonitrate 27 to 391 €/T in big bag rendered culture, i.e. +1 €/T.
This increase is explained by continued strong demand and comfortable producers in volumes for the next two months. As indicated in the context, we are probably approaching a high point, with an expected stabilization at producer level.
Increases could still appear in cultivation, but they would be linked to inventory purposes at distributors and would not reflect the actual trend. However, it may be interesting to take advantage of these stocks at distributors.
We expect prices to stabilize at the producer level. It is still too early to project reliably over the longer term, but if the demand for nitrogen fertilizers slows down at the end of the year, declines could appear at the beginning of the year, especially for the 2nd and 3rd inputs.
Urea:
Urea in France increased by 5 €/T to reach 475 €/T in bulk from La Pallice. Prices in urea originating in North Africa are stabilizing. Europe will have difficulty importing at the beginning of the year because of the uncertainty surrounding the tax. As a result, prices are expected to fall from North Africa, as Europe can no longer buy and is forcing them to sell in other markets, which are more competitive than Europe.
Also noteworthy is the lifting of U.S. fertilizer taxes, an element to watch for its potential impact on prices by further opening the U.S. market to external origins.
In any case, this should not affect European prices in the short term, which will depend on purchases already made and in the pipeline before the end of the year.
The only factor that could really bring down the price of urea in Europe in the short term would be concrete political action on the MACF tax.
Phosphorus:
The trend remains similar to last week, with a DAP that rose slightly to 705 € / T but we do not feel for the moment, pressure greater than that in this market and which should contain the rise. For the TSP 45, the price remains stable at 560 €/T bulk departure Rouen.
Potash:
Still no change in this market. Potash chloride is 360 € / T bulk departure Rouen.
Nov 19 - Brazil soy exporters profit more as futures rise, US and China trade resumes
An association representing Brazilian soybean companies estimated $60.25 billion in revenues from the export of soybeans and by-products in 2026, a significant jump from last month's projection. In a statement on Tuesday, oilseeds industry group Abiove said the figure represents a $5 billion jump from last month's projection and reflects a rise in soy prices.
Nov 19 - India set for record wheat planting as soil moisture and prices rise
Indian farmers are set to expand wheat acreage by about 5% to a record high, aided by higher returns and October's untimely rains, which improved soil moisture and encouraged a shift from rainfed crops to the cereal, industry officials told Reuters. The higher planting is expected to help the world's second-largest wheat producer boost output, ease local prices, and potentially enable New Delhi to permit limited exports of wheat flour.
Nov 18 - China snaps up US soybeans after pledge to Trump, but at high price, traders say
China bought at least 14 cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Monday, two traders with knowledge of the deals said, its largest purchase since at least January and the most significant since a summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in October. China is buying U.S. soybeans to meet the pledges it made to Washington at the trade summit in Busan, South Korea, even though the cargoes are priced higher than rival Brazilian offers, two Asia-based traders said.
Nov 18 - Russian grain exports via Baltic Sea jump 30% in 2025, data shows
Russia's grain exports from its Baltic Sea terminals have increased by 30% this year, with nearly half going to African countries, data from the Federal Centre for Agriculture Products Safety Evaluation showed on Monday. Russia, the world's leading wheat exporter, is expanding its Baltic Sea ports to diversify its agricultural exports and reduce dependence on Black Sea routes, where shipping infrastructure has been targeted in attacks by Ukraine.
Nov 17 - Trump cuts tariffs on beef, coffee and other foods as inflation concerns mount
U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday rolled back tariffs on more than 200 food products, including such staples as coffee, beef, bananas and orange juice, in the face of growing angst among American consumers about the high cost of groceries. The new exemptions - which took effect retroactively at midnight on Thursday - mark a sharp reversal for Trump, who has long insisted that the sweeping import duties he imposed earlier this year are not fueling inflation.
Nov 17 - Trump tariff rollback offers relief for Indian farmers
Indian agricultural exporters are among the winners from U.S. President Donald Trump’s exemption of dozens of food items from his reciprocal tariffs regime, which some analysts say could help to revive lost demand. Trump on Friday removed tariffs he had imposed on more than 200 food products, including beef, as consumer concerns mount over rising U.S. grocery prices.
Nov 17 - Egypt targets 5 million tons of local wheat next year, seeking self-sufficiency
Egypt has targeted procurement of five million metric tons of local wheat next season as it moves away from being one of the world's top wheat importers to self-sufficiency, the supply ministry said on Sunday. Egypt typically imports about 10 million tons a year, with the state buyer obtaining roughly half of that for the country's bread subsidy programme on which 70 million people rely.
Nov 17 - Importers in Thailand bought about 74,000 tons soybeans, 63,000 tons soymeal
A group of importers in Thailand this week purchased about 74,000 metric tons of soybeans and 63,000 tons of soymeal in an international tender, European traders said on Friday. They can be sourced from optional origins. The soybeans were purchased at an estimated premium of 95 cents a bushel cost and freight included over the July 2026 soybean contract for 2026 shipment between May to June, traders said.
Nov 15 - Fishmeal/Fishoil comments and Prices (PERUVIAN “INDICATION”)
The North/Central fishmeal quota has been adjusted higher to 1.63 million m/t effective November 12, 2025. There was some catch in the South Region of Peru, about 3,600 m/t, with the total now up to 35,200 m/t.
The total North/Central catch to November 11 is seen at 191,500 m/t which represents about 42,700 m/t of fishmeal and 7,800 m/t of fish oil. 1,438,500 m/t remain on the current quota.
The increase in the fishing quota this week from 500,000 m/t to 1.63 million m/t seemed not to have any effect on the rallying fishmeal prices ----- with about 250,000 m/t of fishmeal presold the maximum available and unsold, assuming a full quota, will be about 120,000 m/t --- prices are currently very strong.
A report was published this week by Rabobank that says fishmeal will be in short supply by 2028 as production grows very little but demand continues to increase. Work continues on finding alternate ingredients for fishmeal or in revising feed formulations to reduce the fishmeal required but in many instances there seems to be limited or no good alternative to fishmeal. There are alternatives in the works but to date prices are too high and supplies too limited.
China’s fishmeal supply requirement for 2025 is estimated at 2.30 million m/t, up very slightly over 2024. Close to 2.0 million m/t will be imported and just over 250,000 m/t produced locally.
Nov 14 - USDA data blackout fuels uncertainty ahead of upcoming crop report
A crop data blackout during the longest-ever U.S. government shutdown has led to the widest range of analyst estimates in a decade for corn and soybean yields, as an information vacuum at harvest time and during critical trade negotiations distorted the market for the country's two most valuable crops. On Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture is set to release a hotly anticipated crop report, including the government's first estimates of the two feed crops since mid-September, before the harvest had taken shape. In the absence of last month's world agriculture supply and demand estimates report, traders have relied on disparate bits of data to take positions.
Nov 14 - White House hosts oil, biofuel talks as Trump administration nears decision on refinery waivers
The White House this week held separate meetings with oil refiners and biofuel producers as it seeks to resolve a long-running dispute over billions of gallons of U.S. biofuel-blending requirements that were waived for small refineries, according to four sources familiar with the discussions. The discussions signal the Trump administration is nearing a decision on whether larger refiners must make up for any of the waived gallons, a decision originally expected by the end of October but delayed by the government shutdown.
Nov 14 - Delayed payments and broken deals put Egypt’s state grains buyer under scrutiny
Mounting trade tensions that earlier this year led to a drop in Egypt's wheat imports have triggered a shake-up at the country's new state grains buyer, as a newly appointed leader moves to restore credibility, according to trade and industry sources.For decades, Egypt ran a transparent tender system to secure supplies for a bread subsidy programme that feeds tens of millions of people and is a cornerstone of social stability.
Nov 14 - Brazil to reap record soy crop in 2025/2026, increase exports
Brazil's Conab said the country will reap a record soybean crop of 177.6 million tons in the 2025/2026 harvest year, according to data released on Thursday. The world's largest soy producer and exporter is also expected to ship an unprecedented 112.1 million tons to China and other nations, up 5.11% from the previous crop year, the Conab crop agency added.
Nov 13 - Argentina's "mega" wheat crop to hit record level, exchange says
Argentina's 2025/26 wheat crop is projected to reach a record level, the Rosario Grains Exchange said on Wednesday, as the crop records higher yields during the ongoing harvest. The exchange raised its forecast for the crop to 24.5 million metric tons, a hike of 1.5 million tons from its estimate last month
Nov 13 - India's palm oil imports hit 5-year low as soyoil purchases surge to record
India's palm oil imports slid to their lowest level in five years during the 2024/25 marketing year, while purchases of soyoil soared to a record high as a widening price premium made palm oil less attractive to buyers, a leading industry body said. Lower palm oil imports by India, the world's biggest buyer of vegetable oils, could boost inventories in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia and pressure benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures.
Nov 13 - South Korea’s NOFI buys estimated 75,000 tons of feed wheat in tender, traders say
Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc purchased about 75,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said. The wheat was bought in two consignments for arrival in South Korea around February 15.
Nov 13 - China's soybean glut could defeat US export hopes after trade thaw
China is grappling with a glut of soybeans after months of record imports, curbing prospects for U.S. exports despite a recent trade truce that Washington said includes a pledge by Beijing to resume heavy purchases. Traders and analysts warn that vast stockpiles at ports and in state reserves, coupled with weak crush margins, limit Beijing's appetite for further purchases.
Nov 12 - French Fertilizer market context (Agryco)
- The nitrogen market remains turbulent. The tension does not seem to want to fall, with a urea market that has been in the bullish dance on the European level for two weeks. Demand, which is still strong despite multiple increases, illustrates the backlog accumulated in recent months. It remains difficult to concentrate several months of purchases in a single period, which increases the pressure on prices and logistics.
In this context, further increases are expected for all nitrogen products in the coming weeks.
However, the price levels reached are becoming high, fueled by concerns about the carbon tax and by occasionally strong demand.
Nitrogen solution:
Producers are continuing their strategy of gradual increases, even if they are tending to moderate. The price has gained another €5/t since last week, reaching €355/t from Rouen. Demand remains strong, but truck logistics is now the main limiting factor to deliver more volumes by the end of the year.
The first offers for January are expected to increase this week or next, and suppliers are likely to take advantage of this to apply further increases.
The increase in the price of urea reinforces this trend, even though the nitrogen solution is already more expensive compared with other forms of nitrogen. From the beginning of the marketing year, it was anticipated that it would receive a premium, a direct consequence of the reduction in supply and in particular of the withdrawal of Russian producers from the European market.
Ammonitrate:
The price of ammonium nitrate has not changed compared to last week. However, given the overall context and persistent demand, it would not be surprising to see an increase again this week. The ammonitrate 33.5 is at 496 €/t returned in big bag and 390 €/t returned in big bag in ammonitrate 27.
Ammonidate remains competitive with nitrogen solution, but the gap widens with inhibited urea, now better positioned.
Urea:
The urea market is moving at two speeds with the origin of North Africa destined for Europe which continues to rise much more than the rest of the world market.
This difference can be explained by the introduction of the European tax, which is exerting upward pressure, as well as by the delay in purchases recorded in several European countries.
The current price is 470 €/t bulk departure La Pallice. This market is expected to remain fairly tight with the lack of visibility on the volumes that will be imported by the end of the year and the lack of fiscal visibility on the beginning of next year preventing importers from forecasting their first boats for the moment.
Phosphorus:
As announced two weeks ago, the DAP market is starting to turn the tide with the first increases announced. This development is not surprising in the context of a tight nitrogen market: producers naturally seek to take advantage of this dynamic.
For the moment, we manage to keep a price of the DAP at 700 € / t bulk departure Rouen, but increases are to be expected in the short term, without expecting a surge in prices.
The TSP 45 remains stable at 560 €/t bulk departure Rouen.
Potash:
Still no change in this market. Potash chloride is 360 € / T bulk departure Rouen.
Nov 12 - German rapeseed sowings for 2026 crop little changed on year, association says
Germany's winter rapeseed planted area for the 2026 harvest is estimated between 1.1 million and 1.15 million hectares, compared with 1.1 million hectares planted for the 2025 harvest, German oilseeds industry association UFOP said on Tuesday. The association’s estimate is traditionally among the first forecasts of Germany’s rapeseed plantings.
Nov 12 - China's COFCO seals billion-dollar Brazilian soybean, palm oil deals
State trader COFCO's oilseed unit said on Monday it has signed agreements to purchase Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil and other agricultural products, with a total volume of nearly 20 million tons worth over $10 billion. The contracts with traders including ADM, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus were signed last week at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai, COFCO Oils & Oilseeds said in a statement on its official WeChat account.
Nov 12 - Algeria bought wheat in tender for shipment to 2 ports, traders say
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have bought milling wheat in an international tender on Tuesday which sought limited shipment to two ports only, European traders said. The volume was initially unclear. The requirement in the tender to unload the wheat only in the ports of Mostaganem and/or Tenes in two port tenders from the OAIC generally signals that a relatively small purchase will be made, traders said.
Nov 11 - Russian Wheat prices updated at least in 2025 (SovEkon)
Average prices of Russian wheat with protein 12.5% in the European part of Russia last week fell by 150 rubles to 13 700 rubles / t, it follows from the price monitoring "SovEkon". This is the new low for 2025 and the lowest since August 2024. The high availability of new crops in the non-southern regions has put pressure on prices.
In the Volga Federal District, wheat prices decreased to 11,500 rubles/t, in the Central Federal District - to 11,950 rubles/t. Both regions had the lowest rates since early July.
Wheat supply in both regions is high, with good harvests. In October, SovEkon estimated the 2025 wheat harvest in the Volga region at 20.3 million tons against 17.7 million tons in 2024, in the Center - at 21.3 million tons against 16.8 million tons a year earlier.
Despite the high supply of wheat, demand for it in the Center and the Volga region is sluggish both from local consumers and exporters. The problem of grain being transported to seaports from these regions is further complicated, especially as river navigation is closed before winter.
Prices in the South have decreased to 15,000 rubles per ton, but still remain higher than the indicators of the beginning of July. Demand for southern grain is high amid strong exports, but wheat sales are low.
We do not rule out further gradual price reductions, most pronounced in regions far from export terminals. At the same time, we do not expect a serious decline in the South against the background of a relatively active export campaign. SovEkon estimates Russian wheat exports in November at a record 4.6m tons, up from 4.1m tons a year earlier.
Nov 11 - Canada agriculture minister says canola trade prospects are improving after China visit
Canada's agriculture minister said in an interview on Monday his weeklong trip to China is evidence of bilateral relations beginning to thaw, something desperately needed by Canada's farmers and canola exporters. Canada's canola exports have been effectively blocked from China, at times Canada's biggest seed export market, for months due to import duties on Canadian canola seed, oil and meal. These were part of China's response to Canada's 2024 100% duties on Chinese electric vehicles. Canola sales to China were worth C$4.9 billion ($3.49 billion) in 2024.
Nov 11 -Analysts see US soy, corn harvests nearly done; wheat ratings steady
The U.S. harvest of soybeans and corn was nearly complete as of Sunday while winter wheat condition ratings held steady with the previous week, a Reuters analyst poll showed on Monday. The U.S. soybean harvest was 96% complete by Sunday and the corn harvest was 92% finished, according to a Reuters poll of nine analysts. Farmers are harvesting what has been projected as the biggest U.S. corn crop in history along with a bumper soybean crop.
Nov 11 - Palm Oil Ends Higher on Expected Fall in Production
- Palm oil ended higher, as production is expected to fall. Palm oil production likely peaked in October and will enter a low-production cycle due to seasonal factors, Apex Securities analyst Steven Chong says in a research note.
- The brokerage maintains an overweight view on CPO and expects prices to remain firm into 2026, supported by the imminent rollout of the upgraded biodiesel mandate in Indonesia, tighter global supply stemming from Indonesia's crackdown on illegal plantations, and subdued output growth in Malaysia. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for January delivery ended 27 ringgit higher at 4,139 ringgit a ton.
Nov 10 - Malaysia Nov. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Fell 9.5% on Month to 448,328 Tons, AmSpec Says
Malaysia's palm oil exports during the Nov. 1-10 period are estimated down 9.50% on month at 448,328 metric tons,
cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Monday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate: (All figures in metric tons)
Nov 1-10 Oct 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 119,252 120,523
RBD Palm Oil 32,760 74,588
RBD Palm Stearin 37,451 50,046
Crude Palm Oil 140,815 43,482
Total* 448,328 495,415
*Palm oil product volumes don't add up to total as some products aren't included.
Nov 10 - China restores soybean licenses for U.S. firms, ends log ban
China will restore soybean import licences for three U.S. firms and lift its suspension on U.S. log imports starting November 10, its customs authority said on Friday in another sign of easing trade tensions between the two nations. The licence suspensions for farmer-owned cooperative CHS, global grains exporter Louis Dreyfus Company Grains Merchandising and export grain terminal operator EGT were imposed in March amid escalating trade frictions.
Nov 10 -India plans 1.5 mln ton sugar export quota on higher domestic surplus
India plans to allow sugar exports of 1.5 million metric tons in the new season, as a decline in the diversion of sugar for ethanol production is expected to leave a larger domestic surplus, government and trade sources told Reuters. Higher exports from the world's second-largest sugar producer could pressure benchmark New York and London futures, which are hovering near five-year lows.
Nov 07 - China soybean imports hit record October high on strong South American supply
China's soybean imports reached a record level for the month of October, a Reuters calculation of customs data showed, as buyers ramped up purchases from South America, while Beijing and Washington were mired in a trade war. The world's top soybean buyer brought in 9.48 million metric tons in October, the General Administration of Customs said, up 17.2% from 8.09 million tons a year earlier.
Nov 07 - COFCO held soybean procurement signing ceremony, association official tells US-China forum
China's state-owned COFCO held a soybean procurement signing ceremony on Thursday morning, the head of a Chinese agriculture business association told a U.S.-China forum. Cao Derong, the president of the China Chamber of Commerce for the Import and Export of Foodstuffs, Native Produce and Animal By-Products, made the comment at the U.S.-China Agricultural Trade Cooperation Forum, which is taking place in Shanghai as part of the China International Import Expo.
Nov 07 - Malawi activates grain export restrictions as 4 million people face hunger
Malawi is enforcing maize export restrictions to protect stocks of the staple grain, the trade ministry said on Thursday, after the government forecast that a fifth of the population faces hunger following a below-average harvest. The controls are under a 2018 law that restricts the import and export of goods, including maize, the ministry said in a statement.
Nov 07 - South Korea’s FLC buys about 60,000 tons feed wheat, traders say
South Korea's Feed Leaders Committee purchased around 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in an international tender seeking up to 130,000 tons on Thursday, European traders said. The wheat was believed to have been purchased at an estimated $263.00 a ton cost and freight included plus a $1.25 a ton surcharge for additional port unloading.
Nov 06 - China buys first US wheat cargoes since 2024 after leaders' meeting, traders say
China has booked two cargoes of U.S. wheat following last week's meeting between the countries’ leaders, traders said, the first such purchases since October last year, signalling easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. Investors welcomed the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea, which helped ease concerns over the trade dispute between the world's two largest economies that had disrupted flows of goods including key agricultural products.
Nov 06 -Europe races to lock down poultry as bird flu takes hold
A surge in deadly bird flu cases in Europe has prompted more countries to confine millions of poultry indoors to shield them from infected wild birds, with Ireland the latest to take action. Highly pathogenic avian influenza, commonly called bird flu, has been concerning for the poultry industry and governments since it led to the death of hundreds of millions of birds in recent years and spread to dairy cows in the U.S., disrupting supply, fueling food prices and posing a risk of human transmission.
Nov 05 - EU 2025/26 soft wheat exports jump as French data retrieved
European Union soft wheat exports so far this season as reported by the European Commission jumped by almost 1.8 million metric tons last week as the figures incorporated a chunk of missing data for top EU wheat producer France. The Commission's tally for EU soft wheat exports since the start of the 2025/26 season in July was 8.03 million tons as of November 2, compared with 6.25 million the previous week.
Nov 05 - Beijing lifts some tariffs on US farm goods but soybeans remain costly
China will suspend retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports following last week's meeting of their two leaders, including lifting duties on farm goods, Beijing confirmed, but imports of U.S. soybeans will still face a 13% tariff. The State Council's tariff commission announced it would remove the duties of up to 15% it imposed on certain U.S. agricultural goods from November 10, while maintaining the 10% levies introduced in response to President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" duties.
Nov 05 - ADM cuts 2025 profit outlook on biofuel and trade uncertainty
Grains trader Archer-Daniels-Midland cut its 2025 profit forecast for a third straight quarter as U.S. biofuel policy uncertainty and global trade disruptions pressured oilseed crush margins. ADM and its agribusiness peers have seen earnings erode in recent quarters due to ample global crop supplies and commodities market upheaval that has thinned margins.
Nov 05 - French Fertilizer market context (Agryco)
The market remains tight and, despite successive increases, demand remains strong. We could have expected a temporary slump in prices while the market absorbs these increases, but this did not happen last week with demand remaining strong. Prices have risen further, while offers have remained limited.
This week, a slight slowdown in demand could be on the horizon given the intense activity of recent weeks and the increases recorded. Nevertheless, the market is expected to remain at high levels and continue its upward trend. The advice remains unchanged compared to last week in terms of coverage: it is still relevant to secure its volumes. The market shows few signs of weakness, producers have made good progress in their sales, and crop prices do not yet reflect those charged by producers, in particular because of the stocks held by resellers and distributors.
On the other hand, we are, however, reaching very high price levels, which call for caution: the market is becoming increasingly speculative, especially beyond the risks of the amount of the tax and the expected price levels.
Nitrogen solution:
The nitrogen solution has recovered 10 €/t compared to last week, now reaching 350 €/t from Rouen.
This week, the exchanges were not only about the price, but also about the ability to release volumes in time, i.e. before the end of December. Indeed, the catching up of delays has led to a high concentration of orders over a short period, which saturates the logistics. Suppliers will be vigilant to ensure that distributors withdraw their volume in good time.
There will now be two markets with offers with November/December delivery that should continue to have some price opportunities and a market with deliveries at the end of December/January that should continue to rise.
Ammonitrate:
Producers again saw a strong increase at the beginning of the week, in line with the upward momentum of the nitrogen market. Despite the fact that they are European producers, they are taking advantage of this tax to raise their price. The ammonitrate 33.5 is at 496 €/t returned in big bag and 390 €/t returned in big bag in ammonitrate 27.
This increase is expected to dampen demand, and prices are now expected to stabilize in the short term before potential further increases.
Urea:
The volumes available in November in France are becoming scarce. The few suppliers with stocks are looking to value them, resulting in an increase of around €20/t. Their objective is to dispose of stocks in order to accommodate the last boats before January.
Importers who no longer have the capacity to bring in volumes before the end of the year prefer to wait until they have a clearer picture of the tax before launching new purchases. Visibility on this point is crucial: depending on whether the tax is €40/t or €100/t, the impact on the market will be very different.
The market is now moving at speculative levels, amplified by fiscal uncertainty. While world prices are on a downward trend, Europe is already paying a significant premium. Caution should therefore be exercised in the face of an increase that appears to be disconnected from the international market, especially since the large stocks forecast at the end of the year and a possible revision of the formula for calculating the tax could reverse the trend.
The current price, on limited volumes, is 470 € / t bulk departure La Pallice.
Phosphorus:
The situation remains stable compared to last week. However, the overall trend is less downward, even if the supply/demand ratio remains favorable to buyers. Indeed, the rise in the cost of certain raw materials and the MACF tax weigh on this downward momentum and reinforce the stability of the market.
DAP: 700 €/t bulk departure Rouen
TSP 45: 560 €/t bulk departure Rouen
Potash:
The potash remains stable with a potash chloride at 360 €/t bulk departure Rouen.
Nov 04 - Chinese buyers purchase Brazilian soybeans as prices ease over US-China trade thaw
Chinese soybean importers have stepped up purchases of Brazilian cargoes in recent days as South American prices eased on expectations a U.S.-China trade deal will lead to a resumption of U.S. sales to the world's largest soybean importer. Buyers have booked 10 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for December shipment and 10 for March-July with South American prices now quoted below offers being made for U.S. cargoes, three traders said.
Nov 04 - Analysts estimate US soy harvest as 91% complete, corn 83% done (poll)
The U.S. harvest of soybeans and corn is winding down, a Reuters analyst poll showed, with mostly dry conditions over the weekend helping to speed progress in the Midwest crop belt. The U.S. soybean harvest was 91% complete as of Sunday and the corn harvest was 83% finished, according to a Reuters poll of nine analysts.
Nov 04 - Argentina's agro export revenues plunge in October after September surge
Exports from Argentina's agricultural sector brought in $1.12 billion in October, the country's CIARA-CEC grains processors and exporters' chamber said, a 56% drop when compared to the same month a year earlier. The sharp decline follows a revenue jump in September, when President Javier Milei's administration temporarily suspended export taxes on grains and by-products to boost dollar inflow and strengthen central bank reserves amid market turbulence.
Nov 04 - Kazakhstan exported 2 million tons of grain from September 1 to October 31
Kazakhstan, the largest grain producer in Central Asia, exported 2 million metric tons of new-crop grain from September 1 to October 31, the agriculture ministry said. As of October 28, Kazakhstan had harvested 26.9 million tons of new-crop grain.
Nov 03 - China warns of growing foreign espionage in seed, grain sector
China's Ministry of State Security warned that foreign intelligence agencies are stepping up efforts to "illegally obtain" genetic data and seed resources from the country's grain sector, calling the activity a threat to national food security. "In recent years, foreign intelligence agencies have intensified their infiltration into China's grain sector, illegally obtaining genetic data from crops such as soybeans, corn, and rice, posing a serious threat to the country's food security," the ministry said in a statement published on its official WeChat account.
Nov 03 - Trump administration must pay food aid benefits within days, judge says
A federal court in Rhode Island on Saturday ordered the Trump administration to make full food aid benefit payments by Monday, or partial payments by Wednesday, while acknowledging the "irreparable harm" that exists without their timely payment. The Rhode Island case is one of two lawsuits filed to block the U.S. Department of Agriculture's suspension of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, known as SNAP or food stamps, which aid low-income Americans.
Nov 03 - Russia's non-GMO soybeans exports to China safe despite Trump-Xi trade deal, source says
Russia’s non-genetically modified soybean exports to China are safe, a Russian government source told Reuters on Saturday, despite a deal between China and the United States concluded by U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Russia ranked a distant fifth among the largest soybean exporters to China in 2024, but its shipments consist exclusively of non-genetically modified soybeans, used in the production of foods such as tofu, soy milk, and soy sauce.
Nov 03 - Iran's SLAL tenders for 120,000 tons each corn and soymeal, traders say
Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 120,000 tons of soymeal, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tenders is Tuesday, November 4, they said. Shipment for both the corn and soymeal is sought in January and February 2026.
Oct 31 - SPIKE Spot Commodity Index Ukraine
Part I. Grain Crops
- Ukraine
· As of 30.10.25, 40.200 million tons of cereals and legumes were threshed in Ukraine against 47.972 million tons last year. Oilseeds (including soybean) - 15.629 million tons against 18.785 million tons last year.
· Harvesting of late crops continues: corn - 10.359 million tons (18.293 million tons last year), sunflower - 8.371 million tons (9.598 million tons), soybean - 3.938 million tons (5.729 million tons).
· Exports of agricultural products as of 29.10.25 - 4 million tons against 6.2 million tons last year. Including: wheat - 1.44 million tons (1.6 million tons), rape - 180 thousand tons (462 thousand tons), corn - 776 thousand tons (1.7 million tons), barley - 216 thousand tons (367 thousand tons), soybeans - 200 thousand tons (612 thousand tons), sunflower oil - 362 thousand tons (451 thousand tons), rapeseed oil - 90 thousand tons (60 thousand tons), soybean oil - 43 thousand tons t (39 thousand tons), sunflower meal - 266 thousand tons (376 thousand tons).
- CORN
In Ukraine, more than 10 million tons of corn have been harvested. The yield is gradually growing and kept at a 20% higher level than last year, at 40% of the harvested areas.
The market is gradually saturated with corn, while export shipments lag behind last year's pace by more than 1.5 million tons. The expected total harvest this year is 6 million tons higher than last year, while the additional need for exports to balance the market is +4-5 million tons compared to last season.
All manufacturers' attention is focused on the spot market, which remains technically overheated due to the delayed harvest and reconfiguration of internal logistics. The activity of farmers sales is concentrated on November-December.
The complicated world market situation does not show more favorable prices for the period from January than the current spot market offers. This stimulates accelerated sales in November-December and creates excessive demand for more expensive local logistics.
The current market situation can change only after the spot price correction below the forward level, which will create motivation for farmers to conclude sales for later periods if a premium is available.
On the basis of CPT, the sea ports of corn were traded this week at up to $208 (November) and up to $206 (December).
Contracts with delivery in January were concluded at $204-205, and at the end of the week the quotations were adjusted to $1-2 down in the coming months.
Spot corn price index with delivery within 30 days rose by $2 relative to last week's level - up to $206.
On the western border, there are still active shipments of corn, mainly towards the Italian market.
The short logistics shoulder to the border and the stable cost of European railway logistics since the summer create a favorable economic context for the sale of corn through the western direction.
The possibility of selling corn on the terms "loaded from the farmer and sealed in the Ukrainian wagon" provides an operational and economic advantage over exports through the seaports "to which it is still necessary to reach".
In the direction of the western border, corn was traded at €181-182 (November-December). At the same time, European farmers have started more active sales of corn, which can increase competition in the market in the coming weeks.
- WHEAT
The wheat market is in a lethargic dream - prices have not changed for three weeks in a row.
After a summer rally caused by a delay in harvest, when food wheat prices reached $235, and feed traded at $230, the quotations dropped by $15-20 and remain stable for two consecutive months.
Since July, wheat exports amounted to 6.2 million tons against 7.7 million tons for the same period last year. The market gradually accumulates the effect of lagging export shipments against the background of growth in domestic supply.
Spot price index of food wheat (11.5% protein) with delivery within 30 days remained unchanged compared to last week - $221. The index of forage wheat also remained unchanged - $208.
Part II. Oilseeds
- SUNFLOWER
The harvested area has already reached 86%, with a total yield of 8.4 million tons against 9.6 million tons on the same date last year.
Low yields, high energy prices, as well as rising costs and disruptions to logistics can lead to another loss-making year for the processing industry. Increasing the number of processing capacities in Ukraine this season may reduce their workload to 60% or below.
Such factors cause concern in the world market and maintain a stable demand for sunflower oil. Soybeans and soybean meal price increases also provide additional support to the oil complex.
In the direction of Turkey there is a stable demand for sunflower oil at levels of $1'300-1'320 with delivery November-December.
Oil prices in the ports of Northern Europe begin to align, leveling the inversion effect and signaling the formation of forward premium on sunflower oil.
Strengthening the prices of sunflower meal creates the potential for further growth of sunflower prices next week.
Sunflower prices rose by $10-13 per week with VAT, which corresponds to the forecasts of #Spike_Insight.
Spot price index of sunflower with delivery within 30 days increased by $9 from VAT - up to $697 from VAT.
- RAPESEED
Since the beginning of the season, Ukraine has exported slightly more than 1 million tons of rapeseed against 2.4 million tons in the same period last year (July-October).
Domestic recycling is progressively reducing the activity of procurement, while the export market is attracting more attention from producers due to higher levels of prices.
Over the past 10 days, the prices for rapeseed in the direction of exports increased by €20, which was a direct consequence of the growth of futures on rapeseed on the MATIF exchange.
The spot price index of rapeseed for processing with delivery within 30 days remained unchanged compared to Friday last week - $592.
In the direction of seaports, prices for non-GMO rape are traded to the level of $550 CPT sea ports, while in the direction of the western border demand remains at the level - €460 DAP border in Ukrainian cars.
- SOYA
For a week, the soybean complex was in the euphoria of the expected agreements between the United States and China on the procurement of American soybeans. Strengthening the prices of American soybeans has a direct impact on the pricing of Ukrainian soybeans, at least through the intersection of common sales markets. The main market for sales is Europe, which annually imports 15-20 million tons of soybeans, the lion's share of which is provided by South and North America.
U.S. soybean quotations on the CME (Chicago) exchange this week have received an impetus to the largest monthly growth in the last four years - more than 10%.
In Ukraine, about 4 million tons of soybeans have been harvested, with an internal processing of 2.5 million tons and an export of about 3 million tons expected.
Spot index of GMO soybean price for export with delivery increased by $2 without VAT within 30 days compared to Friday last week - up to $399.
Spot price index of GMO soybean for processing remained unchanged - $440 with VAT.
The prize for soybeans non-GMO remains stable - $40-45 relative to the price of soybeans GMO.
Oct 31 - Cargo points to resumption of Australian canola sales to China (Grain Central)
Esperance is one of Australia’s major canola-growing and exporting regions. AUSTRALIA is due to load what is believed to be its first cargo of canola bound for China since 2020 next week in a move which could reopen a significant market for Australia’s major oilseed.
The cargo, which appears on CBH Group’s shipping stem as 60,000 tonnes and on Southern Ports’ shipping list as 65,709t, is due to start loading on Tuesday at CBH’s Esperance terminal in Western Australia on board the Armonia A.
The Federal Government’s Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry website indicates the cargo is part of trial with stringent phytosanitary requirements, as referenced in DAFF’s Manual of Importing Country Requirements (Micor).
“The Australian Government negotiates improvements to conditions for agricultural trade with all trading partners, including China,” a DAFF spokesperson said in a statement responding to an inquiry about the shipment.
“This is an active and ongoing government-government discussion and details have not yet been finalised.”
The appearance of the cargo to load in Esperance next week appears to confirm trade speculation that China was to reopen conditionally to Australian canola, resulting in several cargoes being booked to sail from next month.
Oct 31 - China to buy 12 million metric tons of US soybeans this season, Bessent says
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that China has agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of American soybeans during the current season through January, down from 22.5 million tons in the prior season after a months-long tariff battle halted all purchases of the current U.S. harvest. China also committed to buying 25 million tons annually for the next three years as part of a larger trade agreement with Beijing, Bessent said, following a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea.
Oct 31 - Payments clear for delayed wheat cargoes at Egyptian ports
Several shipments of wheat that had been delayed for weeks at Egyptian ports due to payment issues have now been cleared to unload after the problems were resolved, Egypt's state grain-buyer Mostakbal Misr told Reuters on Thursday. Around eight vessels carrying roughly 200,000 metric tons of wheat had been stranded since early October due to delays in clearing the letters of credit, traders had said.
Oct 31 - South Korean mills tender for 40,300 tons wheat from Canada
A group of South Korean flour mills has issued a tender to buy an estimated 40,300 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from Canada only, European traders said on Thursday. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is Friday, October 31.
Oct 30 - Russian wheat exports accelerated in October (SovEkon)
SovEkon estimates Russian wheat exports in October at 5.1m tons, up from 4.8m tons a month earlier and 4.5m tons in five years on average. Russian wheat exports could surpass average for the first time since November 2024. Exports were supported by a recovery in global wheat demand and rising export margins.
Large importers of Russian wheat have increased their purchases in recent months and continued to actively buy wheat in October. Last week, the Algerian agency OAIC purchased about 600 thousand tons of wheat, at the beginning of the month, 455 thousand tons of wheat was purchased by the Saudi agency GFSA. The Saudi agency also purchased 500,000 tons of wheat from GFSA affiliates in October. Traders expect a significant part of the supplies to come to the countries of the Black Sea.
Since the beginning of autumn, major importers of Russian wheat have started to increase their purchases. In September, the volume of wheat supplies to Egypt reached 0.8 million tons - the maximum since February 2025. Shipments to Turkey during the same period totaled 0.7 million tons, the highest level since November 2023.
At the same time, wheat supplies from Russia’s competitors have stagnated. We expect Ukraine to export 1.5m tons of wheat in October, up from 2.1m tons a month earlier. EU wheat exports are estimated at 1.7m tons, compared to 2.1m tons in September.
Exporters' margins have risen slightly in the last month. At the beginning of October, exporters’ margins were negative, while at the end they reached $4/t.
Russian exports are constrained by the weather in the Black Sea, which has traditionally been subject to higher storm frequencies for this season.
In September, SovEkon estimated Russian wheat exports at 43.4m tons, while the US Agriculture Ministry estimated exports at 45.0m tons.
Renewed exports point to increased demand from major importers. But it remains to be seen whether this demand will be sustainable, or whether buyers will pause in anticipation of lower prices.
Oct 30 - Argentina oilseed union could strike next week with salary deal far off
Argentina's oilseed workers' union SOEA and industry chamber CIARA are "very far" from reaching a wage deal, a SOEA leader said on Wednesday, warning a strike could begin next week if no agreement is reached. Argentina is the world's leading exporter of soybean oil and meal, and unions in the sector have a history of labor disputes with companies.
Oct 30 - India to impose 30% import duty on yellow peas from November 1
India has imposed a 30% import duty on yellow peas, effective November 1, according to a government notification issued late on Wednesday. Shipments with a bill of lading dated on or before October 31, 2025, will be exempt from the duty, the order said.
Oct 29 - French Fertilizer Market Context ( Agryco) All nitrogen fertilizers registered a sharp increase last week, driven by the high probability of maintaining the carbon border tax (CBCT-MACF). Demand has been very dynamic, due to this fear coupled with a market that had lagged behind the campaign: many farmers had postponed their purchases in order to preserve their cash flow.
The coming week should be a continuation of this trend, with the market still on the upside. It seems appropriate to secure volumes from the beginning of the week, in order to benefit from the price levels still below thanks to the available stocks.
Nitrogen solution:
The increase continues: +10 €/t last week, then +25 €/t extra this week. The price now stands at 340 € / t departure Rouen.
This increase results from the double effect, anticipation of the MACF tax and structural tension on volumes (withdrawal of Russian exports in particular).
Producers maintain a limited release strategy, with successive increases for each new allocation. In the current context, despite the risk of fueling the rise by buying, it seems difficult to remain completely uncovered given the high risks of further increases over time and logistical tensions.
Ammonitrate:
The market is also on an upward trajectory. The current prices are 468,5 €/t returned in big bag for ammonitrate 33,5 and 382,5 €/t returned in big bag in ammonitrate 27.
The ammonium nitrate producers were the initiators of the increases and should continue to accompany the general movement of the nitrogen complex. Further upward adjustments are expected this week among producers.
Urea:
Last nitrogen to resist, urea finally experienced a marked rebound: a wave of European purchases last Friday led to an increase of +60 $ / t among North African producers.
In France, the price rose by +30 €/t to reach 450 €/t bulk departure La Pallice.
The request remains active in a logic of anticipation of the tax. North African producers, aware of their position of strength, are rapidly raising prices. Visibility remains limited: the first offers are only emerging today, and some importers refuse to offer volumes due to lack of logistical capacity before the end of December and uncertainty about the level of tax early next year.
Phosphorus:
The overall trend remains slightly downward, driven by a supply/demand ratio favorable to buyers after several months of low demand. However, rising commodity costs and uncertainties around the MACF tax tend to limit this downward momentum and reinforce price stability.
Given the now limited downside potential and the increased regulatory risk, it seems appropriate to prepare for DAP coverage in particular. The DAP is 700 €/t bulk departure Rouen and the TSP 45 is 560 €/t bulk departure Rouen
Potash:
For potash, the market is still stable. We don't see any evolution in that market at this time. Potash chloride is 360 €/t bulk departure Rouen.
Oct 29 - China buys US soybean cargoes ahead of Trump-Xi meet, sources say
China's state-owned COFCO bought three U.S. soybean cargoes, two trade sources said, the country's first purchases from this year's U.S. harvest, shortly before a summit of leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. As the two nations battle over trade tariffs, the lack of Chinese buying has cost U.S. farmers billions of dollars in lost sales, after they largely supported Trump in his campaigns for president.
Oct 29 - Ukraine 2025 sunseed crop may fall to 9.5 million tons due to poor weather, union says
Ukraine's 2025 sunflower seed harvest may fall to 9.5 million metric tons from 10.2 million tons in 2024 if rainy weather unfavourable for harvesting persists, the country's major farmers union UAC said on Tuesday. Ukraine is the world's largest sunflower oil exporter and a large European grower of soybeans.
Oct 29 - EU 2025/26 soft wheat exports down 21% by October 26
European Union soft wheat exports since the start of the 2025/26 season in July had reached 6.25 million metric tons by October 26, compared with 5.87 million the previous week, and down 21% on a year earlier, European Commission data showed on Tuesday. A breakdown of this season's volumes showed Romania was still the largest EU soft wheat exporter with 2.55 million tons exported so far, followed by France with 1.03 million tons, Lithuania with 841,878 tons, Germany with 584,543 tons, and Latvia with 494,722 tons.
Oct 28 - Monsoon promise turns sour for India's crops ruined by late downpours
Indian farmers' hopes for bumper crops following this year's abundant monsoon rains were dashed by heavy downpours just before harvest that damaged their fields, crushing the dreams of millions who rely solely on agriculture for their livelihoods. The losses to crops such as cotton and soybean are expected to slow agricultural growth, boost farmers' debt and cap rural consumption, which had been set to rise after New Delhi slashed taxes on hundreds of consumer items.
Oct 28 - EU crop monitor sees steady sowing while southeast trails behind
Winter crop sowing is progressing well across most of the European Union, although delays are reported in parts of southeastern Europe due to adverse weather, crop monitoring service MARS said on Monday. Rapid sowings in the EU, helped by drier weather than in the rain-hit starts to the past two campaigns, have raised the prospect of a steady planted area despite low market prices, analysts said.
Oct 28 - Russian wheat export little changed, analysts raise export estimates for October
Russian wheat export prices changed little last week, with analysts continuing to raise their forecasts for October shipments. The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery at the start of December was at $230.50 a metric ton at the end of last week, down $0.50 from the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.
Oct 27 - Russia extends sunflower export duties till 2028 to boost local output (Interfax)
Russia has extended export duties on sunflower seeds, oil, and meal until August 2028 to encourage domestic processing and maintain price stability in its food market.
Russia, one of the world’s major exporters of sunflower oil, said on Friday it has extended export duties on sunflower seeds, sunflower oil, and meal for another two seasons to encourage domestic processing.
“The decision is aimed at stimulating the processing of oilseeds within the country, maintaining stable pricing on the domestic food market, and ensuring the availability of sunflower oil for the population and sunflower meal for the livestock industry,” a government statement said.
The move would also contribute to long-term predictability in the market, it added.
The duties were previously valid until August 31, 2026, or until the end of the current export season. Now they will remain in effect until August 2028.
For sunflower seeds, the export customs duty will remain at 50%, but not less than 32,000 roubles per tonne.
For sunflower oil and sunflower meal, a “floating” duty rate will continue to apply. Russia exported 5.1 million tonnes of sunflower oil in the 2024/25 season, and exports in the new season could reach around 5.2–5.3 million tonnes, according to industry lobby forecasts.
Sunflower meal exports in the 2024/25 season amounted to 2.6 million tonnes and may exceed 3.1 million tonnes in the current season.
The utilisation rate of sunflower processing facilities in Russia this season may reach 87%, which is 7% higher than last season, said Mikhail Maltsev, head of the Oil and Fat Union. However, the sunflower harvest is not yet complete.
The area sown with sunflowers reached a record 11.2 million hectares this year, according to the agriculture ministry.
Analysts initially predicted a record sunflower harvest this year but have subsequently adjusted their forecasts because of drought in southern Russia. The IKAR agency last week lowered its forecast for sunflower production in Russia in 2025 to 17,500 tonnes from the previous 17,800 tonnes.
Oct 27 - The US corn crop could be the biggest ever. That’s terrible news for America’s farmers.
As Trump fired government statisticians, farmers and traders have questioned whether the quality of U.S. Department of Agriculture data, long a market backbone, would hold up, heightening interest in the crop tour. More than 15,000 USDA employees, or about 15% of its workforce, have taken financial incentives to leave the agency under Trump’s downsizing mandate.
Oct 27 - Favourable weather boosts winter grain sowing in Europe
Sowing of winter grains has advanced rapidly in much of Europe, helped by drier weather than in the rain-hit starts to the past two campaigns and raising the prospect of a steady planted area despite low market prices, analysts said.
Oct 27 - Russia extends export duties on sunflower seeds, sunflower oil and meal until August 2028
Russia, one of the world's major exporters of sunflower oil, said on Friday it has extended export duties on sunflower seeds, sunflower oil and meal for another two seasons to encourage domestic processing.
Oct 24 - SPIKE Spot Commodity Index Ukraine - Part I. Grain Crops
Ukraine
· As of 23.10.25, 37.560 million tons of cereals and legumes were threshed in Ukraine against 45.080 million tons last year. Oilseeds (including soybean) - 14.658 million tons against 18.617 million tons last year.
· Harvesting of late crops continues: corn - 7.713 million tons (15.414 million tons last year), sunflower - 7.837 million tons (9.539 million tons), soybean - 3.502 million tons (5.621 million tons).
· Russia's constant attacks on port and railway infrastructure have significantly slowed the movement of goods in export directions.
· Exports across the western border are becoming increasingly relevant in the face of instability of seaports and rail links.
CORN
Ukraine threshed 2.8 million tons of corn for the week, bringing the total gross harvest to 7.7 million tons as of 23.10.25. The average yield continues to grow: this year it is 15% higher than last year by 30% of the harvested areas.
Market expectations of the total corn harvest already exceed 32 million tons, which will be the largest indicator during the full-scale war against Ukraine.
Export shipments of corn are gradually increasing, but remain at a record low - 485 thousand tons against 1.3 million tons for the same period last year.
It is expected that reaching a milestone of 10 million tons of collection next week will intensify shipment of grain in export directions. A significant part of agricultural holdings has already realized, if not 90%, about 50-75% of the expected corn harvest with supplies for November-January. Under such conditions, saturation of export channels with shipments is expected from the beginning of November.
In the ports on the spot market, prices are held with a delivery premium until 10.11.25, where buyers are willing to pay up to $207. At the same time, due to the unpredictability of logistics, this award is mainly theoretical. Contracts with delivery in November-December are traded at $203-204 towards seaports.
On the western border, European buyers expect November shipments. The high cost and far from ideal situation with rail logistics forces producers to use their own road transport to deliver grain to the western border and seaports.
Spot index of corn price with delivery within 30 days remained unchanged compared to Friday last week - $204.
European buyers on the basis of FCA Chop announced the price of €182-183 in November and €180 in December. The intensification of the offer of European corn, especially from France and Eastern Europe, creates additional pressure on prices in the middle of Europe for the coming months. Most buyers/traders are in search of opportunities to sell and do not want to buy.
It is expected that from December, prices in the direction of Europe can travel to the parity level of $190-195 CPT seaports, the western border in the European train - up to €170-175.
WHEAT
Wheat export rates are decreasing, and the grain itself is less actively traded in the export direction.
The prices of forage and food wheat in general kept the previous week level without significant changes. Food wheat added $1, and the difference between food and feed quality remains stable at $13.
Given the increase in the world supply of feed grain, the difference between food and feed wheat tends to expand. Stable demand and limited supply of food grains will support the price of food wheat.
The spot price index of food wheat (11.5% protein) with delivery within 30 days increased by $1 compared to Friday last week - up to $221. The index of forage wheat remained unchanged - $208.
Oct 24 - SPIKE Spot Commodity Index Ukraine - Part II. Oilseeds
SUNFLOWER
In Ukraine, 7.8 million tons of sunflower were harvested against 9.5 million tons last year. The yield remains lower than last year and does not give grounds to expect more than 10 million tons of the total collection this season.
The price of sunflower oil in the northern ports of Europe rose by $20 per week. A similar strengthening is observed in the direction of Ukrainian seaports, where the quotations rose by $20 to 1'280$ CPT.
Processing plants are now supplied with raw materials for a little more than a month of work. The collection of wet sunflower creates significant challenges for farmers in the process of bringing it to conditions and increases the risks of quality reduction.
Sunflower prices rose by $10-15 per week with VAT.
Spot price index of sunflower with delivery within 30 days increased by $11 with VAT - up to $688 with VAT.
The price is given for the basic quality 8/3/48, adjusted taking into account the cost of transportation from the plant to the base of CPT Odessa.
RAPESEED
As of 23.10.25, Ukraine exported 987,000 tons of rapeseed against 2.4 million tons in the same period last year (July-October). Strengthening prices and a powerful closing last week on the European exchange offer the prospect of further growth in quotations for 15-20€.
The spot price index of rapeseed for processing with delivery within 30 days remained unchanged compared to Friday last week - at $592.
The price is given for the basic quality 8/2/48, non-GMO, adjusted taking into account the cost of transportation from the factory to the base CPT Odessa.
In the direction of export, non-GMO rape keeps the price level of about $540 CPT seaports, while in the direction of the western border the quotations make up about €450 DAP border in Ukrainian cars.
SOYA
The soybean market is waiting for clarification on the prospects of European regulation of EUDR and is currently trading without significant changes until December.
For most European players, the introduction of EUDR regulation is considered as a supporting factor for soybean prices, especially NE-GMOs. The Italian market is currently showing a €15-20 spread between GMO and NE-GMO soy.
Over the past week, soybean prices have risen by $2-5 on the market in Ukraine.
Spot index of GMO soybean price for export with delivery within 30 days increased by $3 without VAT compared with Friday last week - up to $397. The price is given for the basic export quality of GMO soybean on the terms of CPT Odessa.
Spot price index of GMO soybean for processing with delivery within 30 days increased by $1 without VAT - up to $440 with VAT.
The prize for soybeans NE-GMO remains stable - $40-45 relative to the price of soybeans GMO.
Oct 24 - Trump to quadruple Argentine beef imports while US ranchers fume
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is quadrupling the country's low-tariff imports of Argentine beef in his attempt to lower grocery store beef prices, a White House official said on Thursday, evoking fury from the nation's cattle ranchers. Raising the tariff rate quota on Argentine beef to 80,000 metric tons will let the country ship more of its beef to the U.S. at a lower rate of duty.
Oct 24 - IGC raises 2025/26 world wheat crop forecast
The International Grains Council has raised its forecast for 2025/26 global wheat production with crop outlooks upgraded for Russia, the United States and Argentina. The intergovernmental body, in a monthly report, raised its global wheat production forecast by 8 million metric tons to 827 million tons, a record high and up 1.1% from the prior season.
Oct 23 - Trump calls for cheaper cattle, more grazing lands in effort to trim beef prices
The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday continued its campaign to cut the cost of beef, with Trump urging cattle ranchers to lower prices while several agencies announced an effort to rebuild the country's decimated cattle herd. Earlier this week, Trump said the administration was considering importing Argentine beef as a means of lowering record-high consumer beef prices.
Oct 23 - Fear grips Indonesian palm oil industry as military seizes plantations
Indonesian soldiers in fatigues marched onto a private palm oil plantation on Borneo island in late June and posted a signboard declaring the estate under government control, its managers said. The scene at the Melati Hanjalipan plantation exemplifies a sweeping military-backed takeover that has sent a chill through the world's biggest palm oil producer and its 16-million-strong workforce.
Oct 22 - Durum Wheat Prices Crumble (Veille Au Grain)
Durum wheat production for the 2025-26 crop year is expected to be plentiful, but doubts about the quality of the Canadian crop are keeping the market in limbo.
The 2025-26 crop year opens with a well-stocked durum wheat market. Global supply looks comfortable and demand remains on the downside, leaving prices to crumble. At October 11, 2025, they amounted to €233/t at La Pallice.
The International Grains Council (ICC) forecasts production to increase by 1% to close to 36.5 million tons (Mt), and total supply to exceed 43 million tons from higher stocks. At the same time, however, world trade could contract by as much as 10%. Major consumer countries rely more on their domestic crops. Against this backdrop, inventories are rising and weighing on prices.
In France, a quality to the rendezvous
In France, prices are heading in the same direction despite a durum wheat sole at the lowest level since the early 1990s. A worrying decline partly offset by satisfactory yields, bringing the harvest to around 1.26 million tons, up 2% compared to last year. Beyond the volume, it is the quality that seduces: specific weights greater than 79 kg / hl, proteins close to 14%, irreproachable Hagberg drop indices and grains of good vitrosity. Climatic conditions also limited speckled or fusarium-damaged kernels. All these characteristics ensure that semolina makers and pasta manufacturers have a regular and reliable raw material.
This quality could also strengthen French durum wheat exports on the international scene and boost the market in the second half of the season. For the time being, outflows are low and global competition is important. Tricolor volumes contribute to the progress of the European harvest. It reached 8.3 million tons, up 15% year-on-year, also driven by Italy, which is strengthening its central role with nearly 4 million tons.
Harvest in progress in Canada
The global durum equation remains dominated by Canada. Its harvest this year would total nearly 6.5 million tons, the second historic record for the country which retains its leading position with more than half of world exports. The harvest is underway and this year the quality is questioned. In the province of Saskatchewan, less than one-quarter of volumes reach the top grade, a ratio well below average.
In Alberta, the results are better but still fall short of the usual standards. The dry summer weather has left its mark, and initial assessments cast doubt on the true exportable proportion of high-quality durum wheat. However, renewed momentum in global demand will be needed to provide price support and reverse the current price trend.
Turkey, the discreet arbiter of the market
Turkey is the world's second largest producer of durum wheat, with almost 4.6 million tons, and this year its exports are limited to just 900,000 tons. Ankara favors the rebuilding of its stocks, reducing its presence on international markets. As proof, the volumes exported at this stage only reach 100,000 tons compared to more than 300,000 tons last year. A strategic choice that tightens the available supply and strengthens the role of Canada and Europe as the main suppliers to the Mediterranean.
Oct 22 - French Fertilizer market context (Agryco)
Several factors have put pressure on the European market over the past week:
· State-organized videoconference: an update was made on the implementation of the MACF (Border Carbon Adjustment Mechanism) tax, which we have been talking about for several months. The meeting failed to clarify the exact amount of the tax planned for 2026 – estimated at several tens of euros per ton – but confirmed that the European Union should maintain it for 2026, despite the difficulties faced by the agricultural sector and the lack of preparedness of the Member States.
· Price increase for ammonium nitrate: a major European producer announced an increase of €20/t last week.
· Logistical tensions: availability in tank transport becomes tight at the end of the year, which increases the pressure with obligations to remove volumes quickly.
In this context, nitrogen fertilizers are increasing on the European market, mainly due to geopolitical factors, while the global market remains rather stable or even oriented downwards.
The MACF tax is now attracting all attention and should mechanically push prices up even before its entry into force. Following last week's conference, all stakeholders are actively preparing for its implementation:
· Importers are looking to secure as many volumes as possible before January.
· Distributors and farmers are also switching back to purchasing.
The first increases have already been observed: ammonium nitrate has opened the movement, followed by nitrogen solution, whose price is currently trying to rise to 315 €/t.
This week, all the players in the European market (traders, producers, importers, etc.) are meeting for an event in Lisbon, during which a great deal of information is expected to circulate.
A firm market is already to be expected, although the extent of the increases remains to be determined in view of the more than moderate demand in recent months and the low level of cereal prices.
Nitrogen solution:
The activity on the nitrogen solution intensified at the beginning of the week, driven by concerns related to the implementation of MACF and the increase in ammonidate observed last week.
The price thus increased from 305 €/T to 315 €/T from Rouen. Producers are now looking to reach €320/T, taking advantage of the renewed demand.
This increase should not be immediately validated, but it clearly gives the market trend. It therefore seems appropriate to secure volumes as long as prices remain below this threshold in the coming days.
Given the agricultural and international context, a rapid surge in prices seems unlikely. Nevertheless, a gradual increase until the end of the year is expected, gradually integrating the estimated impact of the upcoming tax.
Ammonitrate:
An ammonium nitrate producer passed an increase last week triggering the increase in nitrogen. Instead, the announced increase of €30/T resulted in a practical increase of around €20/T.
Ammonitrate 33.5 now stands at €429/T bulk grown (+19 €/T), while ammonitrate 27 stands at €330/T bulk grown (+5 €/T).
Prices are expected to hold steady this week, but could move quickly if demand holds.
Urea:
The urea market remains stable for the time being, with a price maintained at 420 €/t departure La Pallice. This stability can be explained by a more relaxed global environment after the last call for tenders.
However, given the dynamics on other nitrogen fertilizers and the tax that will heavily penalize urea, it is not excluded that Europe will experience a different evolution from the rest of the world, with a short-term upward movement. This market therefore remains to be closely monitored.
Phosphorus:
As expected for the fall, the trend on phosphorus remains bearish.
The DAP is currently at 700 €/t bulk departure Rouen, while the TSP 45 is at 565 €/t bulk departure Rouen.
Potash:
The potash market remains stable with a price of 360 €/t bulk departure Rouen.
Oct 22 - Japan’s new leader to woo Trump with pickups and soybeans
As Japan's new premier Sanae Takaichi got to work, her government began finalising a purchase package, including U.S. pickups, soybeans and gas, to present to President Donald Trump in trade and security talks next week, two sources said. She will not, however, commit to any new defence spending target at the meeting, which comes as Washington presses Japan and other allies to do more, said one of the sources with knowledge of the preparations.
Oct 22 - No new US soy sales to China, nothing being loaded, say US soy groups
There are no new sales of United States' soybeans to China and nothing is expected to be loaded in coming weeks, according to information from U.S. soy industry groups American Soybean Association and the U.S. Soybean Export Council. Harvested soybeans are not moving to export hubs, and instead going to storage, representatives for the two U.S. soy industry groups told reporters on the sidelines of a conference in Des Moines, Iowa, on Tuesday.
Oct 22 - South Korea bought estimated 157,717 tons of rice from China and US
South Korea's state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp purchased an estimated 157,717 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the U.S. in an international tender which closed on September 30, European traders said on Tuesday. The corporation often takes several weeks to award purchases in tenders. A notice of award was sent on October 20, traders said.
Oct 21 - Russian wheat export prices rise, analysts raise export estimates for October
Russian wheat export prices climbed last week amid a stronger rouble and sustained demand from importers, while analysts raised their export estimates for October. The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board delivery at the end of November or the start of December was at $231 a metric ton at the end of last week, up $2 from the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.
Oct 21 - Trump plan to import Argentine beef angers US farmers
U.S. farmers on Monday criticized President Donald Trump's suggestion that the country may import more beef from Argentina, after they recently lost out to the South American nation on soybean sales to top buyer China. Trump said on Sunday that he was considering imports to reduce U.S. beef prices that have climbed to record highs. His administration earlier extended a $20 billion currency swap lifeline to Argentina, which the president considers an ally.
Oct 21 - China intensifies effort to ensure wheat sowing against heavy rains
China has launched a 60-day campaign to secure wheat planting in the main North China Plain winter wheat belt, the government said on Monday, after heavy rains left fields wet and threatened to delay planting and disrupt next year's grain supply. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will adopt targeted measures to strengthen planting in wet conditions, take action to handle late sowing, and improve field management before winter, it said in a statement.
Oct 20 - ADM seeks to lure soy sales from US farmers as prices languish, sources say
Archer-Daniels-Midland, one of the world's biggest grain merchants, is offering incentives for U.S. farmers to deliver soybeans to one of its major processing facilities this month as low prices have slowed selling by growers, a grain trader and a company employee with knowledge of the matter said. In an unusual offer during the peak of autumn harvesting, ADM is allowing farmers to deliver soy to its facility in Decatur, Illinois, and set the final sale price later, without paying for storage, the two sources said.
Oct 20 - China imports no US soybeans in September for first time in seven years
China imported no soybeans from the U.S. in September, the first time since November 2018 that shipments fell to zero, while South American shipments surged from a year earlier, as buyers shunned American cargoes during the ongoing trade dispute between the world's two largest economies. Imports last month from the U.S. fell to zero from 1.7 million metric tons a year earlier, data from China's General Administration of Customs showed.
Oct 17 - China holds off on soybean purchases due to high Brazil premiums, traders say
China has yet to secure much of its soybean supply for December and January as high premiums for Brazilian cargoes discourage buyers, a development that could prompt Beijing to tap state reserves to meet near-term needs, three trade sources said. China still needs to purchase about 8–9 million metric tons of soybeans for December-January shipment after covering cargoes through November with hefty purchases of Argentine beans in recent weeks, the sources said.
Oct 17 - Western Australia could reap record harvest as crop estimates rise again, GIWA says
Western Australia will produce nearly 1 million metric tons more wheat this season than was expected a month ago, an industry group said on Friday, bolstering expectations for a large Australian harvest that will pressure global prices. The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia also raised its production forecasts for canola by 490,000 tons and for barley by 200,000 tons.
Oct 17 - Algeria buys about 400,000 tons durum wheat in tender, traders say
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased about 400,000 metric tons of durum wheat in an international tender which closed on Wednesday, European traders said on Thursday. The tender sought a nominal 50,000 metric tons but Algeria frequently purchases more than the volumes initially sought.
Oct 17 - Egypt's state agency bought two French wheat cargoes on Wednesday
Egypt's state grains buyer Future of Egypt bought two French wheat cargoes on Wednesday, the latest in a series of purchases from France, two sources familiar with the matter said. The cargoes were sold at an estimated price of $240 per metric ton on a free-on-board basis with payment via 270-day letters of credit, one of the sources told Reuters.
Oct 16 - Trump targets China cooking oil trade - but sales were already tanking
U.S. President Donald Trump said he was considering terminating some trade ties with China, singling out cooking oil, which traders and analysts said would have little impact as such shipments had already plummeted from China over the past year. "I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution," Trump wrote on social media on Tuesday.
Oct 16 - FranceAgriMer cuts grain stock forecasts as export prospects rise
Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday lowered its forecasts for end-of-season stocks of French soft wheat, barley and maize for the 2025/26 season, citing strong export demand for the three cereals. In a supply and demand report, the office left its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in 2025/26 unchanged at 7.85 million metric tons but raised projected shipments within the EU to 7.04 million tons from 6.74 million previously.
Oct 16 - Russia resumes wheat supplies to Indonesia, state agriculture watchdog says
Russia, the world's top wheat exporter, resumed shipments to Indonesia in October, the state agriculture watchdog said on Wednesday, after a pause since January due to negotiations between the two countries over access for Russian grains. The watchdog said that Indonesia's Quarantine Agency agreed in August to extend safety certificates for Russian grains, paving the way for the supply of 52,000 metric tons of wheat in October.
Oct 16 - South Korean mills buy about 50,000 tons wheat from the US
A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said. It was believed that no purchase was made of 45,000 tons of Canadian-origin wheat also sought. The U.S. purchase involved several different wheat types and was all bought on a free on board basis.
Oct 15 - Brazil new soy crop seen at record 178 million tons (Conab)
Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest a record 177.64 million metric tons of soybeans in the 2025/26 season, virtually the same as forecast last month but around 6 million tons more than in the previous year, crop agency Conab said on Tuesday. Conab cited an expected 3.6% rise in the size of the area being sowed with the oilseed, to 49 million hectares (121.081 million acres), and noted Brazilian exports may surpass 112 million tons in the new marketing year as the U.S. is expected to reduce its own soy exports amid a trade war with China.
Oct 15 - France raises sugar beet, maize harvest forecasts
France's farm ministry on Tuesday raised its forecasts for this year's sugar beet and maize crops, for which harvests are ongoing, with sugar beet now expected 10% above the five-year average. In a crop report the ministry forecast France's sugar beet output in 2025 at 34.2 million metric tons, up from 31.8 million expected last month.
Oct 15 - EU 2025/26 soft wheat exports down 23% by October 12
European Union soft wheat exports since the start of the 2025/26 season in July were down 23% year on year at October 12, partly reflecting incomplete figures for top EU producer France, European Commission data showed on Tuesday. EU soft wheat exports had reached 5.51 million metric tons, compared with 4.96 million the previous week and 7.12 million by the same week last year.
Oct 15 - Jordan buys about 60,000 tons of wheat in tender, traders say
Jordan's state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, traders said. It was believed to have been bought from trading house CHS at an estimated $262.50 a ton cost and freight included for shipment in the second half of February 2026, they said.
Oct 14 - China urges swift action as rain disrupts key grain harvest
China's vice premier on Monday said that recent continuous rainfall in the key grain-producing Huang-Huai-Hai region has disrupted the autumn harvest, urging swift action to ensure the country meets its annual grain output target of around 700 million tons. Liu Guozhong was quoted by state news agency Xinhua as saying that China must "do everything possible" to secure the harvest and procurement of autumn grain, alongside all autumn and winter planting tasks.
Oct 14 - Above-average rains boost Ivory Coast cocoa harvest potential, farmers say
Above-average rains across most of Ivory Coast's cocoa belt last week should support an abundant October-to-March main crop, though farmers warned of potential quality issues if wet weather persists. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is in its rainy season, which runs officially from April to mid-November, when rains are abundant and often heavy.
Oct 14 - France tries to plug wheat export gap as Algeria, China stay away.
Oct 14 - France is heading for its biggest wheat stockpile in two decades as a collapse in demand from Algeria and China narrows export options, despite merchants profiting from slow Russian shipments to grab sales to Egypt and Asia, analysts said. The lack of French exports to Algeria and China in the past year due to diplomatic tensions with Algiers and Beijing cutting overall imports, means the European Union's biggest wheat producer now faces a surplus of 4 million metric tons annually.
Oct 13 - Lentil area sets record as potential explored in west, north (Source: ABARES)
LENTILS are working their way into an increasing number of grower rotations, and over a growing footprint, that has the crop on track to break its production record from its largest ever planting of 1.14 million hectares.
South Australia and Victoria grow the vast majority of Australia’s lentils, and ABARES estimates both states have planted record areas this year, as has New South Wales.
In Western Australia, where the new ALB Burdett is available to slot into the planting window between canola and cereals, area is rebuilding, and the little pulse is also being grown in Queensland.
2020-21 ha 2020-21 tns 2025-26 ha 2025-26 tns
Qld 200 200 1,100 1,200
NSW 12,000 11,200 75,000 90,000
Vic 261,000 457,000 530,000 750,000
SA 219,000 380,000 515,000 845,000
WA 8,000 5,500 15,000 21,000
TOTAL 500,200 853,900 1,136,100 1,707,200
A comparison of Australian lentil area and production in 2020-21 and 2025-26 shows the growth of the crop in all states.
Oct 13 - China's September soybean purchases reach near-record as trade war with U.S. drags on
China's soybean imports in September reached the second-highest level on record, a Reuters calculation of customs data showed, driven by strong purchases from South America as trade tensions with Washington curbed purchases from the U.S. The world's top soybean buyer brought in 12.87 million metric tons in September, according to the General Administration of Customs, up 13.2% from 11.37 million tons a year earlier.
Oct 13 - Tunisia's state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 100,000 metric tons of soft wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Friday, European traders said. It was all purchased at an estimated $254.58 a ton cost and freight included from trading house Bunge, they said.
Oct 10 - Farmers, traders ‘flying blind’ as US shutdown blocks key crop data
U.S. data vital to global grain and soybean trading has gone dark during the federal government's shutdown, leaving commodity traders and farmers without crop production estimates, export sales data and market reports during the peak of the autumn harvest. The data blackout comes at a particularly difficult time for farmers, who are grappling with low grain prices and uncertainty over damage to corn and soy fields from dry weather and crop diseases.
Oct 10 - Russia will reduce wheat sown area by over 6% in 2025, deputy agriculture minister says
Russia, the world's leading wheat exporter, is set to reduce its winter and spring wheat sown area by over 6% this year in favour of growing more oilseeds, Deputy Agriculture Minister Andrei Razin said on Thursday. Data presented by Razin confirms the recent trend of farmers abandoning wheat, which they consider less profitable due to low global prices, high domestic export duties and droughts affecting the top-producing areas in southern Russia.
Oct 10 - Egypt state buyer makes rare Kazakhstan wheat purchase
Egypt's state grains buyer has purchased wheat from Kazakhstan for the first time in at least 15 years, according to one person familiar with the matter and port data, marking a rare shift in sourcing as the country seeks to diversify its imports. Future of Egypt bought two cargoes of Kazakh wheat — one of around 11,000 metric tons and another of around 21,000 tons — which arrived at Egyptian ports around mid-September, port data showed.
Oct 10 - Tunisia tenders to buy 100,000 metric tons soft milling wheat, traders say
Tunisia's state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat, European traders said on Thursday. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins. The deadline for submission of price offers is Friday, October 10, they said.
Oct 09 - Argentina exchange raises wheat forecast to record-tying 23 million tons
Argentina's 2025/26 wheat harvest is forecast to reach 23 million metric tons, the Rosario grains exchange said on Wednesday, raising its estimate due to high yields from abundant soil moisture. The new forecast, up from a previous 20 million tons, is a result of months of above-average rainfall in the country's main agricultural regions.
Oct 09 - Brazil's soybean exports to hit record as US out of market, Chinese demand strong
Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 102.2 million tons through end-October, surpassing annual volumes for the whole of 2024 and 2023, reflecting the absence of U.S. competitors serving Chinese importers, grain exporter group Anec data showed on Wednesday. The previous record for soy shipments from Brazil, the largest global producer and exporter, was set in 2023 at 101.3 million tons, according to Anec figures.
Oct 08 - Argentina orders oilseed workers to suspend planned strike over wages
Argentina's government said it had ordered oilseed workers' unions to suspend plans for an indefinite strike over wages at processing plants, the Labor Ministry said in a statement on Tuesday. The South American nation is a top world supplier of grains. Argentina's Federation of Oilseed Industry Workers, Cotton Ginners and Related Workers of the Republic of Argentina and San Lorenzo Oil Workers' Union had called for the strike to begin on Wednesday.
Oct 08 - Bangladesh approves US wheat imports, hoping to ease trade tensions
Bangladesh has approved the purchase of about 220,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat under a government-to-government deal aimed at easing trade tensions with Washington after import tariffs were imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. The Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase cleared the deal on Tuesday, officials said. The wheat, priced at $308 per ton, will be supplied through Agrocorp International, a Singapore-based trading house authorized by U.S. Wheat Associates, according to official documents.
Oct 08 - EU 2025/26 soft wheat exports down 25% by October 5
European Union soft wheat exports since the start of the 2025/26 season in July had reached 4.96 million metric tons by October 5, compared to 4.37 million the previous week, and down 25% on a year earlier, European Commission data showed on Tuesday. A breakdown of this season's volumes showed Romania was still the largest EU soft wheat exporter with 2.26 million tons exported so far, followed by Lithuania with 0.75 million tons, France with 0.45 million tons, Germany with 0.44 million tons, and Latvia with 0.37 million tons.
Oct 07 - Purchase prices for Russian wheat decreased for the first time since August (SovEkon)
Last week, the demand prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein in deep sea ports decreased to 16,500 - 16,800 rubles / t from 16,800 - 17,000 rubles / t a week earlier, it follows from the price monitoring "SovEkon". This is the first reduction in purchase prices since the end of August. Prices failed due to the strengthening of the ruble and low demand for wheat in the non-southern regions.
Last week, the ruble appreciated sharply against the US dollar, at 81 rubles per dollar as of October 3 (-3.1% week to week). At the same time, export prices remained at $230-232/t (FOB). Against this backdrop, exporters’ margins have gone into negative territory, and they have begun to reduce purchase prices in order to maintain the profitability of export operations.
Against the background of the decrease in purchase prices, the quotations of wheat with protein 12.5% on the domestic market fell by 275 rubles to 14,000 rubles/t. The pressure on quotes has come from both lower purchase prices in the South and sluggish demand from exporters outside the South.
Farmers need to increase sales to supplement cash, so many are willing to sell wheat at lower prices. However, some farmers are delaying grain sales, focusing on harvesting and selling sunflower and corn.
Exporters are likely to try to squeeze the market in an effort to improve their margins, which this season are at low levels for recent years. Gradual increases in grain supply may help. Domestic prices may be supported by the current recovery in exports, although relatively high prices for this season remain. SovEkon raised its estimate of September exports by 0.3 million tons to 4.6 million tons against a five-year average of 4.9 million tons, while wheat exports in October are projected at 4.7-5.2 million tons against an average of 4.5 million tons.
Oct 07 - Trump bailout for trade-hit US farmers expected this week
The Trump administration is expected to announce a plan as soon as Tuesday to bail out U.S. farmers stung by trade disputes and big harvests, with the initial outlay potentially totaling up to $15 billion, according to sources familiar with the matter. The plan, however, could be difficult to roll out as an ongoing government shutdown prevents the kind of Congressional action needed to approve such a large payout, and existing government reserves fall short, the sources said.
Oct 07 - Brazil soybean planting hits second-highest level for date, AgRural says
Coffee fields in Brazil's Minas Gerais, the world's largest arabica-producing region, have experienced robust flowering, but experts said fruit development will depend on rainfall, which remains scarce in some parts of the coffee belt. The flowering stage is key for the 2026 crop in top coffee grower Brazil, where Minas Gerais state accounts for roughly 70% of arabica production, according to Brazilian food supply agency Conab.
Oct 07 - Ukraine approves mechanism for duty-free rapeseed, soybeans exports
Ukraine has approved new documentation to accompany exports of rapeseed and soybeans that are exempt from a new duty, the government's website said, after confusion about the levy halted shipments of oilseeds for the past month. Parliament passed a bill in July imposing the 10% duty on exports of the two oilseed crops, with the aim of increasing domestic processing volumes and boosting revenue for a state budget strained by the war with Russia.
Oct 07 - Russia's top agriculture official blames low global grain prices for export slowdown
Low global prices for grains, Russia's main agricultural commodity, have caused a sharp fall in exports in recent months, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev, who oversees agriculture, told President Vladimir Putin on Monday. Wheat exports in Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, fell by about 30% year-on-year in August and by 10% in September, according to data compiled by Sovecon consultancy, despite forecasts pointing to a good harvest this year.
Oct 06 - US soybean farmers, deserted by big buyer China, scramble for other importers
A trade mission to Nigeria. A memorandum of understanding with Vietnam. A surge of purchases from Bangladesh. These countries are not typically major customers for soybeans from the U.S. farm belt. But desperate farmers, their trade organizations and President Donald Trump's administration are turning to far corners of the world in hopes of averting a disaster for agriculture from a trade war that has kept China from purchasing U.S. supplies.
Oct 06 - World food prices dip as falls in sugar and dairy offset new high for meat
Global food commodity prices dipped in September as declines in sugar and dairy offset a new peak for meat prices, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday. The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks a basket of internationally traded food commodities, averaged 128.8 points in September, down from a revised 129.7 in August.
Oct 06 - India allows exports of de-oiled rice bran after two-year ban
India on Friday lifted its ban on exports of de-oiled rice bran with immediate effect, ending restrictions that had been in place for more than two years, the government said. Before the ban was imposed in July 2023, India exported 500,000 metric tons of de-oiled rice bran per year, worth about 10 billion rupees, mainly to Vietnam, Thailand, and other Asian countries.
Oct 06 - Vietnam Sept rice exports down 41.3% y/y at 483,000 T
India on Friday lifted its ban on exports of de-oiled rice bran with immediate effect, ending restrictions that had been in place for more than two years, the government said. Before the ban was imposed in July 2023, India exported 500,000 metric tons of de-oiled rice bran per year, worth about 10 billion rupees, mainly to Vietnam, Thailand, and other Asian countries.
Oct 03 - Brazil poised to lead global robusta coffee farming on expansion potential, report says
Brazil is positioning itself to overtake Vietnam as the world's largest robusta coffee producer, driven by the crop's climate resilience and growing global demand, according to a report by Dutch bank Rabobank released on Thursday. Robusta coffee production in Brazil has grown steadily in recent years, and is estimated to reach 24.7 million 60-kg bags in 2025, according to Rabobank's projection, up from 19 million bags in 2020.
Oct 03 - Argentine wheat yields near historic highs
Argentina's 2025/26 wheat yields are nearing historic highs thanks to abundant soil moisture, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday, two days after it hiked up its harvest estimate to 22 million metric tonnes. Argentina is a major world supplier of wheat, and abundant rainfall in recent months has left ample water reserves in the South American country's fertile soils.
Oct 02 - Trump says China's Xi using soy as negotiation tactic ahead of talks
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that soybeans would be a major topic of discussion when he meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in four weeks. "The Soybean Farmers of our Country are being hurt because China is, for 'negotiating' reasons only, not buying," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Oct 02 - More pain for US farmers as government shutdown halts payments
The U.S. federal government shutdown that began Wednesday will halt some payments to farmers and delay access to federal farm loans, the latest blow for producers already facing low crop prices, record-high debts and a trade war at the height of the fall harvest. The shutdown began at midnight after Republican and Democratic lawmakers could not agree on a plan to fund federal government operations. It will last until one party gets enough votes for its funding plan.
Oct 02 - Jordan buys 60,000 tons of feed barley in tender, traders say
Jordan's state grain buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley on Wednesday in an international tender seeking up to 120,000 tons, European traders said. The barley was said to have been bought from trading house Louis Dreyfus at an estimated $259.65 a ton, cost and freight included, for shipment in the second half of December, the traders said.
Oct 01 - Ukraine rapeseed exports fall 59% in September, farm union says
Ukraine's rapeseed exports in September fell by nearly 59% to 201,000 metric tons due to confusion over customs documents after the introduction of a 10% export duty on rapeseed and soybeans, the country's major farmers' union said on Tuesday. Ukraine, a leading exporter of rapeseed and soybeans, mostly to Europe, exported 486,000 tons of rapeseed in August and analysts say the duty, which was imposed on September 4, could create short-term price volatility.
Oct 01 - Taiwan tenders for estimated 80,550 tons wheat of US origin
The Taiwan Flour Millers' Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 80,550 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States, European traders said on Wednesday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Thursday, October 2.
Oct 01 - Brazil's competition authority allows soy moratorium to continue pending year-end decision
Brazil's competition watchdog voted on Tuesday to allow the nation's soy moratorium to continue at least through the end of the year. The 5-1 vote by CADE marked a turnaround after the antitrust agency's reporting councilor for the case voted against an appeal filed by soybean traders and processors.
Oct 01 - Argentina to harvest record corn crop in 2025/26 as soy output falls, exchange says
Argentina is set to harvest a record corn crop in the 2025/26 season, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Tuesday, forecasting production in the world's third-largest exporter to total 58 million metric tons. That would be up from 49 million tons in 2024/25 and exceed the 55.5 million tons harvested in 2018/19, currently the all-time high, according to the exchange, which attributed the jump to a larger planting area.
Sep 30 - Wheat Yield in Siberia Sets New Record (SovEkon)
As of September 26, Siberian wheat yields were 2.7 t/ha, compared to 2.2 t/ha a year earlier and 1.9 t/ha on average in five years, according to SovEkon experts. The yield in Siberia is record amid favorable weather for most of the season.
Record yields are also recorded in the Urals, where as of September 26, they were 2.3 t/ha, compared to 2.0 t/ha in 2024 and 1.6 t/ha on average.
Wet weather during spring and summer contributed to the growth of spring yield in the Urals and Siberia. Over the past three months, rainfall there has been at or above normal levels, ensuring high water supplies. The Asian part of Russia produces mainly spring crops.
SovEkon predicts final yields from Siberia and the Urals at 2.3 t/ha and 2.2 t/ha, respectively, which will be a record for both regions.
Despite high yields, regional wheat production is expected to be slightly lower than last year's amid a decrease in acreage. According to SovEkon estimates, Siberia will harvest 9.8 million tons of wheat in 2025 (compared to 10.2 million tons in 2024) from 4.3 million hectares (5.0 million hectares), in the Urals - 4.1 million tons (4.4 million tons) from 1.9 million hectares (2.2 million hectares).
Forecast of Russian wheat production in 2025 from "SovEkon" is 87.2 million tons compared to 82.6 million tons a year earlier and 88.3 million tons on average for five years. The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts 85.0 million tons.
High yields in Siberia and the Urals will partially offset losses due to adverse weather in the Southern regions. At the same time, strong production in Russia’s Asian regions is unlikely to translate into increased Russian supply, given their remoteness from the main international grain transport channels.
Sep 30 - Russian wheat export prices continue to rise on import demand
Russian wheat export prices rose for a second week in a row, responding to increased demand from importers while shipments accelerated, analysts said. The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board delivery in November was $230 a metric ton at the end of last week, up $2 from the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.
Sep 29 - Russia raises emergency level in major agriculture region
Russia's government has decided to declare a federal level emergency in the agriculture sector of the southern Rostov region as bad weather has caused massive loss of crops, local authorities said. In June, Rostov declared a regional state of agricultural emergency due to drought, which enables farmers to seek compensation for losses.
Sep 29 - India's edible oil imports to jump to record on higher palm buying, analyst Mistry says
India's edible oil imports in 2025/26 are projected to rise 4.6% to a record 17.1 million metric tons, driven by higher palm oil purchases by the world's largest vegetable oil buyer, industry analyst Dorab Mistry said on Friday. Higher palm oil purchases by India will help top producer Indonesia and Malaysia to bring down stocks and support benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures.
Sep 29 - China buys most of 40 Argentina soy cargoes this week for Nov-Dec, traders say
Around 40 Argentine soybean cargoes were registered for export in November and December during this week's export tax suspension, mostly headed to China, two traders told Reuters, in purchases that directly eat into the prime U.S. marketing season. A total of 2.66 million tons of soybeans were registered for November and December, accounting for more than 50% of the 5.1 million tons of total volume booked for all months cited by Argentine officials during the tax-free window, the two Asian traders said on Friday.
Sep 27 - Fishmeal and Fishoil Comments & Prices: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” PRICES
The IMARPE research cruise is chugging along but with some bad weather. It is expected to finish just after the 15th of October and then it will be new quota time. The trade still feels that the quota will be up in the 2.0 million m/t level which will yield about 480,000 m/t of fishmeal.
The business booked for the next season is said to be up to 60,000 m/t with prices moving higher. At the new levels, as shown below, buyers seem to be backing out of the market --- prices are just getting too high for some buyers. China is going on holidays for a week which should make things very quiet for a few days.
Peru’s fishmeal exports for 2025 to the end oof August are just a shade over 1 million m/t -- 1,017,000 m/t to be exact with 831,000 m/t (81.7%) going to China followed by Ecuador, Germany, Japan and Denmark for a total of 143,000 m/t (14.0%).
China’s fishmeal imports for 20205 to end of August are at 1.42 million m/t with China showing 747,000 m/t from Peru, 138,000 m/t from Vietnam, 99,400 m/t from Chile and 97,000 m/t from Russia ---- followed by 19 more smaller fishmeal origins.
Sep 26 - India buys record Argentine soyoil volume after export duty scrapped, sources say
India purchased 300,000 metric tons of soyoil from Argentina during Tuesday and Wednesday, the largest ever purchase in a two-day period, dealers said, taking advantage of Buenos Aires' move to scrap export taxes on soybeans and other food products. The aggressive purchases will help Argentina cut its soyoil stocks, but could also mean fewer palm oil shipments from Indonesia and Malaysia to India.
Sep 26 - Trump says US will distribute aid to farmers until tariffs kick in to their benefit
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States would give proceeds from tariff revenues to farmers. "We're going to take some of that tariff money and give it to our farmers," Trump said at the White House.
Sep 26 - Argentina soy exports at 7-year high after tax pause fuels trading 'frenzy'
Argentina's declared soy exports for the 2024/25 season hit a seven-year high after a brief pause in export taxes triggered a trading frenzy, which should continue to boost the market as many exporters declared sales before buying the goods. Argentina is set to export 10.5 million metric tons of soybeans from this season's harvest, according to government data, ahead of the previous record of 10.1 million achieved in 2018/19. Available official records go back to 2017/18.
Sep 26 - Russia plans to raise grain export revenues in 2026 amid budget shortfalls
Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, plans to nearly double state budget revenues from export taxes on grains, including wheat, in 2026, finance ministry documents showed on Thursday. The duty has become a major irritant for Russian farmers, who argue that it makes growing and exporting wheat less profitable, and blame it, among other factors, for a 20% slowdown in exports in September.
Sep 25 - Argentina reapplies export taxes on grains and by-products
Argentina has reapplied temporarily suspended export taxes on grains and their by-products, as well as beef and poultry, after reaching a sales cap of $7 billion, Argentina's ARCA fiscal agency said on Wednesday in a post on social media. On Monday, the government issued a decree suspending export taxes on soy, corn, wheat and their by-products, including biodiesel, aiming to accelerate sales abroad and secure much-needed dollars to stabilize the flagging peso currency.
Sep 25 - Brazil importing more Argentina wheat after export tax exemption
Brazilian imports of Argentine wheat are poised to increase following a measure by President Javier Milei's government to suspendexport taxes on grains and byproducts, according to analysts and industry sources. Argentina is Brazil's biggest wheat supplier, as its own harvest does not cover domestic demand.
Sep 25 - Brazil's CADE sets date for key vote on soy moratorium appeal
Brazilian antitrust agency CADE's tribunal will begin to review an appeal made by oilseeds lobby Abiove and grain traders, including Cargill and Bunge, against a measure ordering the companies to suspend enforcement of the soy moratorium program. According to a notice published in the official gazette on Wednesday, the six commissioners on CADE's tribunal will start voting on the appeal on September 30.
Sep 25 - Russian former agriculture official blames weather, high fuel costs for slow sowing
High costs of diesel and dry weather have slowed Russia's winter wheat sowing campaign with only half of all fields seeded to date and the time window rapidly closing, a former senior agriculture official was quoted as saying on Wednesday. Russia is the world's top wheat exporter but the agriculture sector, which has been booming in recent years despite Western sanctions, was hit this year by bad weather, high interest rates, rising export taxes and high fuel and fertilizer costs.
Sep 24 - High rice prices jolt Indonesia consumers despite good crop, hefty stocks
Indonesian rice prices hit record highs recently despite a bumper harvest and vast stockpiles after the government raised its purchase price and lowered state-procurement quality standards, leading to a scramble for the grain and fueling consumer backlash. The price of benchmark medium rice rose to 15,950 rupiah per kilogram in August, up nearly 5% since the start of the year and matching the record from March 2024, when the El Nino weather pattern led to drought and crimped domestic production.
Sep 24 - EU 2025/26 soft wheat exports down 33%, French data still lacking
European Union soft wheat exports since the start of the 2025/26 season on July 1 are down 33% from a year earlier, with incomplete figures for top EU producer France again contributing to the drop, European Commission data showed on Tuesday. EU soft wheat exports so far this season had reached 4.12 million metric tons by September 21.
Sep 24 - EU 2025/26 soybean imports down 4% by September 21, rapeseed down 35%
European Union soybean imports for the 2025/26 season, which began in July, had reached 2.86 million metric tons by September 21, down 4% from the same period a year earlier, according to data published by the European Commission on Tuesday. EU rapeseed imports in the same period totalled 0.79 million tons, down 35% year on year. Meanwhile, EU soymeal imports fell by 4% to 4.01 million tons and EU palm oil imports were at 0.60 million tons, down 25% from a year earlier.
Sep 23 - Export prices for Russian wheat rose for the first time in a month (SovEkon)
- Quotes for Russian wheat with protein 12.5% rose by $1.5 - to $228-229/t FOB, follows from the price monitoring of "SovEkon". Prior to that, Russian wheat prices had been declining for four weeks. Russian stocks are supported by a limited supply of wheat and the strengthening of the ruble, as well as by global conditions.
The supply of Russian wheat remains limited, especially in the South, a key export region. Weak harvests due to bad weather contributed to reduced supply in the region. SovEkon estimates the 2025 Russian wheat harvest in the South at 30.9m tons, compared to 32.6m tons a year earlier and 35.0m tons on average over five years.
The strengthening of the Russian national currency also supported export quotations. On Friday, the Central Bank of Russia set the dollar/ruble exchange rate at 83.2 (-2.9% week to week).
The duty on exports of Russian wheat from September 24 will be set at 655.6 rub/t ($7.9/t) against 495.9 rub/t ($5.8/t) a week earlier.
Wheat prices in other countries also rose slightly. CVB (Bulgaria and Romania) prices increased by $3-5 to $235-237/t last week. French wheat prices rose by $6 to $232/t.
The strengthening of prices in the physical market may mean that the actual balance of supply and demand, especially in Europe and the Black Sea region, is more strained than futures prices suggest.
Sep 23 - Argentina suspends agro-export taxes to scoop up dollars
Argentina's government on Monday temporarily eliminated export taxes on grains and their by-products, as well as on beef and poultry, in a bid to speed up sales abroad and rake in much-needed dollars to prop up the flagging peso currency. Just over a month ahead of congressional elections, President Javier Milei's government has faced setbacks in the legislature which have caused nervous investors to turn to the safe-haven dollar and forced the central bank to dip into its dwindling reserves.
Sep 23 - Ecuador set to become world's No. 2 cocoa grower, industry head says
Ecuador is on course to produce more than 650,000 metric tons of cocoa in the 2026/27 season and could surpass Ghana as the world's second largest grower of the chocolate ingredient, the chairman of the country's cocoa exporters association said. Anecacao's Ivan Ontaneda told Reuters via email that thanks to soaring world cocoa prices, farmers - backed by the public and private sector - are investing more and more in their plots and getting increased yields.
Sep 22 - Argentinian Agri Export Taxes
"The Argentine government announced the elimination of export taxes for all grains until October 31st, aiming to increase the supply of dollars in the market and encourage the liquidation of the harvest. This measure seeks to benefit agricultural producers and improve the country's economy.
Details of the measure:
- Elimination of export taxes: Export taxes for all grains will be eliminated until October 31st.
- Objective: Increase the supply of dollars in the market and encourage the liquidation of the harvest.
- Beneficiaries: Agricultural producers and regional economies.
- Estimated amount: It's estimated that around $10 billion worth of dollars remains to be liquidated.
Context and reactions:
- Accusations against "old politics": The government accused the "old politics" of trying to generate uncertainty and boycott the economic program.
- Reactions: The measure was announced by the presidential spokesperson, Manuel Adorni, and is expected to have a positive impact on the Argentine economy."
Sep 22 - China August soybean arrivals from Brazil rise 2.4%
China's soybean imports from Brazil climbed 2.4% in August from a year earlier, as buyers sought to boost inventories to mitigate supply disruption risks in the fourth quarter. The world's top soybean buyer imported 10.49 million metric tons from Brazil last month, accounting for 85.4% of the total imports of the oilseed, customs data showed on Saturday.
Sep 22 - S&P Global forecasts fewer US corn plantings, more soy in 2026
S&P Global Commodity Insights projected on Friday that U.S. farmers would plant 94.5 million acres of corn next year, down 4.3% from this year, and 84 million acres of soybeans, up 3.6%, according to a report from the firm seen by Reuters. Farmers are struggling to turn profits on both crops this year because supplies are ample and China, the world's biggest soybean importer, has not bought U.S. soy from the autumn harvest amid its tariff dispute with Washington.
Sep 19 - China snaps up Australian canola after trade spat with Canada, sources say
Chinese state trading firm COFCO has bought up to nine 60,000-metric-ton cargoes of Australian canola, three trade sources told Reuters, after Beijing last month imposed preliminary anti-dumping duties on imports of the oilseed from traditional supplier Canada. The purchases amount to around 540,000 tons, equivalent to about 8% of China's total canola imports last year.
Sep 19 - Iran's wheat purchase in August was larger than thought, traders say
Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation is believed to have made a large purchase of Russian-origin wheat in its international tender in August, traders said on Monday. "The Iranian purchase looks to have been very much bigger than originally thought but the actual total is still a matter of debate with great disagreement in the market," one European trader said.
Sep 19 - Jordan tenders to buy 120,000 metric tons feed barley, traders say
Jordan's state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is September 24.
Sep 19 - IGC increases 2025/26 world wheat crop forecast
The International Grains Council said on Thursday it has raised its forecast for 2025/26 global wheat production partly reflecting improved outlooks for Australia, Russia and Canada. The intergovernmental body, in a monthly update, raised its forecast for 2025/26 global wheat production by 8 million metric tons to 819 million tons.
Sep 18 - US farmers face 'financial calamity' without extra aid soon, Republican lawmakers say
As U.S. farmers enter autumn harvest season worried that low crop prices and a trade war could hurt their livelihoods, Republican farm-state lawmakers are urging President Donald Trump's administration to issue economic aid for farmers by year's end. Discussions between lawmakers and the administration highlight the trade-offs Republicans face between loyalty to the president and representing constituents who have contacted their offices and flocked to town halls in their districts, worried about the impact of Trump's trade policies.
Sep 18 - French wheat export forecast raised but high stocks hang over market
Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday raised its forecast for French soft wheat exports in 2025/26 after early-season shipments to Egypt and Asia, but said market sentiment remained gloomy with wheat stocks still expected at a 21-year high. France, the EU's biggest grain producer, is widely expected to see a jump in exports this season, as harvest output recovers from a dire 2024, but not by enough to absorb a hefty surplus.
Sep 18 - Feed corn in Ukrainian ports continued to rise in price at the start of the week (APK-Inform)
According to APK-Inform, this week the Ukrainian export market (CPT-port basis) saw an increase in purchase prices for feed corn.
This situation is mainly caused by delays in harvesting, concerns about grain quality, farmers holding out for higher price levels, and exporters’ interest in attracting large-volume lots. Additionally, prices were supported by similar trends on external markets.
In the ports of Greater Odesa, demand prices for feed corn rose by $1-3 per ton and, as of September 17, 2025, are quoted in the range of $202-212 per ton CPT-port. At the same time, in Danube ports, purchase prices increased by $1-2 per ton and are recorded in the range of $198-207 per ton CPT-port.
Sep 17 - US EPA keeps all options open in biofuel reallocation proposal
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Tuesday issued a proposal for reallocating to large refineries the biofuel blending obligations waived under the Small Refinery Exemption program, offering two primary options of 50% and 100%. Additionally, the agency said it will ask for comment on other potential volumes, such as 25%, 75% or none at all.
Sep 17 - French wheat farmers propose 170 euro EU floor price as losses mount
The European Union should raise its floor price for cereals to 170 euros per metric ton, after leaving it unchanged for 25 years at around 101 euros, to help loss-making grain growers, French wheat farmers group AGPB said on Tuesday. Abundant global production has pushed international wheat prices to near five-year lows, adding financial pressure on crop farmers who have seen costs for inputs like fertiliser and fuel rise sharply in recent years.
Sep 17 - SovEkon raises wheat production forecast for 2025
SovEkon raised its forecast for Russian wheat production in 2025 by 1.1 million tons to 87.2 million tons. The figure is expected to be significantly higher than last year's 82.6 million tons and close to the long-term average of 88.3 million tons. The forecast was revised against the background of record yields in Siberia and the Urals.
Estimated wheat production in Siberia was increased by 1.1 million tons to 9.7 million tons, in the Urals - by 0.3 million tons to 4.1 million tons. In both regions, a record final yield is expected.
Wheat harvesting in the Urals and Siberia has been slower than average for the second year in a row due to heavy rainfall, but this year yields in the regions are record due to favorable weather conditions for most of the season.
In the next two weeks, mostly dry weather is expected in most of Russia. Cleaning in the Urals and Siberia could accelerate.
In the European part of Russia, however, the harvest conditions have somewhat deteriorated. The forecast for wheat production in the Center was reduced by 0.3 million tons to 21.3 million tons. The yield in the region by the end of the harvest began to fall, probably against the background of heavy rains.
In September, the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for Russian wheat production by 1.5 million tons to 85.0 million tons.
The gradual increase in the forecast of the harvest in Russia in recent weeks has become one of the key bearish stories for the global wheat market. However, much of this improvement is being made in the Asian part of the country, where delivering wheat to ports is expensive and time-consuming — more than 2,000 kilometers from the Urals to the ports of Azov and more than 3,000 kilometers from Western Siberia.
Sep 16 - Asia millers buy more US wheat on competitive prices, Black Sea delays
Flour millers in Asia have ramped up imports of U.S. wheat in recent weeks, driven by competitive prices from American suppliers and delays in shipments from the Black Sea, according to grain traders at an international conference. Indonesian importers have finalised deals for around 500,000 tons, while buyers in Bangladesh secured about 250,000 tons and millers in Sri Lanka acquired around 100,000 tons, two grain traders said on the sidelines of the event in Jakarta.
Sep 16 - Vietnamese feed makers buying Canadian canola meal after China duties, sources say
Feed millers in Vietnam are taking advantage of bargain prices for Canadian canola meal after China, the product's traditional buyer, curbed purchases by imposing hefty anti-dumping duties earlier this year, three traders said on Tuesday. Vietnamese millers have been importing around 30,000 metric tons a month of Canadian canola meal, used mainly in animal feed, for the past few months, two Singapore-based traders and one Ho Chi Minh-based trader told Reuters on the sidelines of an international industry conference in Jakarta.
Sep 16 - Drought hampers Ukraine's winter grain sowing on 60% of land, say forecasters
Up to 60% of Ukrainian agricultural land intended for sowing winter grain crops is dry and sowing in these areas is currently impractical, consultancy APK-Inform said on Monday, citing state meteorologists. Ukraine is a major traditional producer of winter grains, but in recent years farmers have often sown seeds in dry soil, hoping that a wet and mild winter will allow the seedlings to sprout and grow strong.
Sep 15 - Soybean prices in Ukraine decreased amid the start of the export duty (APK-Inform)
After the start of the export duty on soybeans and rapeseed, shipments of these crops in Ukraine almost stopped. From September 4 to 11, soybean exports amounted to only 23 tons.
Hryvnia purchase prices for soybeans at ports fell to 17.250-17.700 UAH per ton CPT-port, while dollar prices remained within $387-400 per ton CPT-port.
Amid uncertainty regarding further exports of this crop, demand for Ukrainian soybeans from key importers, in particular Egypt and Turkey, dropped significantly.
At the same time, the supply of soybeans on the domestic market increased, as a result of which processors lowered their purchase prices, although the harvesting pace of this crop was quite slow and there was no significant market saturation yet.
Sep 15 - Russia hikes wheat export duty three-fold despite slow exports
Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, increased the wheat export duty almost threefold to 495.9 roubles per metric ton starting on September 17, the Agriculture Ministry said on Friday, despite a decline in exports. The ministry did not provide a reason for the increase, but duties typically decrease during the slow summer export season and begin to rise in autumn as exports become more active. At its peak in December last year, the duty reached 4,768 roubles per ton.
Sep 15 - USDA projects record US corn crop, most harvested acres since 1933
U.S. farmers will reap a record corn crop this autumn, eclipsing the previous record set two years ago by nearly 1.5 billion bushels after harvesting their largest acreage in 92 years, the Department of Agriculture said on Friday. The massive crop is due to swell U.S. supplies of the grain by 59% to a seven-year high even as exports are projected to reach record levels, the USDA said in a monthly supply-and-demand report.
Sep 15 - Growth pace of Brazil grain, oilseed output to slow in new season, analysts say
Brazilian farmers are not expected to boost soy and corn production in the new season by as much as in previous ones, analysts told Reuters, even as they expect benevolent weather throughout the coming months. According to market observers, there is less room to increase Brazil's agricultural commodities output due to factors such as rising costs and high interest rates, which could, for example, constrain the growth of the soy area in the world's largest producer and exporter of oilseed.
Sep 12 - Export #duty from the Russian Federation from September 17 (ProZerno)
▪️for wheat — 495.9 rub/t
▪️for barley - zero
▪️for maize — 398,2 rub/t
Sep 12 - The grain market in Russia and around the world is the main news by this hour (multiple Sources)
· On Thursday, cereal prices rose. The December SRW wheat contract closed at $5.21/bush ($192/t; +1.2% compared to Wednesday). The December HRW wheat contract rose to $5.10/bush ($187/t; +0.6%). December wheat contract Euronext closed for €189.50/t ($222/t; +0.4%). The December US corn contract rose to $4.20/bush ($165/t; +0.6%).
· Brazilian agency Conab raised its estimate of maize production in Brazil to 139.7 million tons from 137.0 million tons a month earlier and 115.5 million tons last year.
· European company Expana estimates the production of European soft wheat at 136.1 million tons, which is 3.3 million tons higher than the August estimate. According to agency officials, this year's harvest is expected to be a record high, up from the previous largest figure of 135.6m tons in 2015.
· Argentina has completed the maize harvest, having collected 49.0 million tons in accordance with the expectations of analysts, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported.
· The share of Argentine wheat crops in normal and excellent condition by September 11 remained at 98%, compared to 79% a year earlier and 75% on average for five years.
· On Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture will issue a September audit of the WASDE report. Market participants estimate the final reserves of American wheat at 23.5 million tons (-0.2 million tons to the August forecast), maize - at 51.1 million tons (-2.7 million tons). The market estimates world final wheat reserves at 261.1 mt (+1.0 mt by August), maize - at 281.6 mt (-0.9 mt).
Sep 12 - Over 200.000 tons of sunflower have been harvested in Ukraine as of early September (APK-Inform)
The sunflower harvesting campaign in Ukraine is accelerating, with the southern regions currently the most active, gradually joined by central parts of the country. As of early September, more than 200.000 tons have been harvested. This was reported by the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established under the UAC.
According to analysts, the country is currently seeing widely varying sunflower yield figures. While the south is showing only 1-1.3 tons per hectare, the situation is better in central Ukraine.
PUSK expects that in the short term, the price of sunflower may increase by 100-300 UAH per ton weekly. At the same time, significant volumes from the northern and western regions will enter the market in the second half of September, which will increase supply and may bring prices down to around 26.500 UAH per ton.
Separately, high-oleic sunflower forms its own segment, with rising demand. Its oil partially replaces the shortage of olive oil, as production in Mediterranean countries continues to decline.
Sep 12 - Ukraine cuts wheat and corn minimum prices for exports in September
Ukraine has revised down its minimum export prices for wheat and corn, the economy ministry said on Thursday. In December, Ukraine banned exports of key agricultural products, including grains, at prices below those set by the ministry.
Sep 12 - Expana expects record EU soft wheat harvest this year
This year's European Union soft wheat crop is expected to have reached a record high, commodities research company Expana said on Thursday after raising its estimate on the back of bigger than forecast harvests in central and northern EU countries. In its latest monthly report, Expana pegged EU soft wheat production for the 2025/26 season at 136.1 million metric tons, 3.3 million tons above its August projection.
Sep 12 - Brazil's Conab raises soy, corn output estimates as season draws to a close
Brazilian farmers harvested a record 171.47 million metric tons of soybeans and a record 139.67 million tons of corn in the 2024/2025 season, Brazilian crop agency Conab said on Thursday in its final grain production report covering the period. The final numbers represent a 1.82 million ton increase in soybean output and a 2.67 million ton hike in total corn production expectations compared to Conab's August forecast.
Sep 11 - SPIKE Spot Commodity Index Ukraine
-----------------------------
CPT ODESSA, UKRAINE (export)
· Corn - 207$ (0$)
· Wheat 11.5pro - 219$ (0)
· Feed wheat - 205$ (+1$)
· Soya GMO - 400$ (0$)
-----------------------------
CPT PARITY* ODESSA, UKRAINE (processing)
· Soybean GMO - 446$ incl. VAT (-1$)
· Rape - 580$ incl. VAT (+10$)
· Sunflower - 693$ incl. VAT (+7$)
-----------------------------
ℹ️ Note:
· Prices are for delivery within 30 days
*Parity is a reflection of the prices of plants from different regions of Ukraine, brought to the unified basis of CPT Odessa, taking into account the logistic costs.
Sep 11 - Argentina corn on track for record season as farmers shift from soy
Argentina could report a record corn production in the 2025/26 season as farmers shift away from soybeans and other crops, a leading grains exchange said on Wednesday. The Rosario grains exchange forecasts the coming corn crop to yield an output of 61 million metric tons, provided the crop experiences normal rainfall during its growth cycle.
Sep 11 - China’s retaliatory tariffs to squeeze EU pork producers
European pork producers face a squeeze on profit margins after China, their largest market, imposed anti-dumping duties of up to 62.4% on imports of EU pork products. The provisional tariffs, effective on Wednesday, target over $2 billion worth of annual exports and threaten to erode margins across the European Union’s pork sector.
Sep 10 - US misses out on billions in China soybean sales midway through peak season
U.S. farmers are missing out on billions of dollars of soybean sales to China halfway through their prime marketing season, as stalled trade talks halt exports and rival South American suppliers step in to fill the gap, traders and analysts said. Chinese importers have booked around 7.4 million metric tons of mainly South American soybeans for October shipment, covering 95% of China's projected demand for the month and 1 million tons for November, or about 15% of expected imports, according to two Asia-based traders.
Sep 10 - Brazil coffee exports to US fall in August but surge elsewhere, industry says
Brazilian coffee exports to the United States fell 46% in August while sales to Latin American neighbors surged, coffee exporters group Cecafe reported on Tuesday, even as industry leaders said re-exporting Brazilian beans via third countries was not an alternative for getting past U.S. import tariffs. Despite a drop in total exports to Germany, the European country took the top spot as the biggest importer of Brazilian coffee - accounting for 414,109 60-kilogram bags - in August, while to Mexico and Colombia rose by 90% and 578% respectively to 251,166 and 112,948 bags, Cecafe said.
Sep 09 - Russian wheat export prices fell to June low (SovEkon)
Last week, FOB quotes for 12.5% protein wheat fell by $4 to $228-230/t. This is the lowest number since the beginning of July. Export prices of Russian wheat declined amid weakening domestic prices, strong supply and weak demand.
From mid-August to early September, Russian wheat export prices fell by $11/t. Falling during this period of the year is unusual, as prices usually reach the bottom in July-August.
Weaker domestic prices for Russian wheat contributed to lower export quotations. From mid-August to early September, the price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein fell by 575 rub/t ($7/t) to 14,000 rub/t ($174/t).
Some growth in the supply of Russian wheat is also putting pressure on prices. In September, SovEkon raised its forecast for Russian wheat production by 0.7 million tons to 86.1 million tons. A year earlier, Russian farmers removed 82.6 million tons.
Demand for Russian wheat from major importers remains lower than a year earlier. SovEkon estimates exports of Russian wheat in the first two months of the new season at 6.4 million tons, compared to 9.9 million tons a year ago and 8.1 million tons on average over five years. Egypt shipped 1.1m tons of wheat during that time, compared to 1.5m tons a year earlier.
Global market conditions are also putting pressure on Russian stocks. From mid-August to early September, the price of French soft wheat on the Matif stock exchange fell by €6.25/t ($7/t) to €189/t ($221/t). Similar dynamics were observed in wheat from the United States, as well as from Bulgaria and Romania.
The decline in the price of Russian wheat remains an important bear factor in the world market. However, this factor is constrained in part by the relatively limited supply from Russian exporters.
Sep 09 - Dairy duty: Indonesia presses businesses to find a million cows
The once-empty barns of the Laras Ati milk cooperative are filled with the recent arrival of more than 200 pregnant spotted Holstein-Friesian cows from Australia under Indonesia's ambitious plan to ratchet up milk production. The centrepiece of a programme to provide free meals to 83 million children and expectant mothers, the plan calls for importing a million dairy cows over five years, at a cost of nearly $3 billion, to lift the size of the country's dairy herd more than four-fold from 220,000 now.
Sep 09 - Flood-hit India, Pakistan face rising basmati prices amid crop losses
Heavy rains and widespread flooding in basmati rice-growing regions of India and Pakistan have raised concerns over output of the premium staple, driving prices higher as supplies are expected to fall. India and Pakistan exclusively grow aromatic basmati rice, which sells for nearly twice the price of regular varieties and is primarily imported by Britain, the Middle East, and the United States.
Sep 08 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)
Spike Brokers launches Spot Price Index on the basis of CPT port.
A fair benchmark built on deals and indicators of buyers and sellers.
Spike applies a clear pricing methodology borrowed from the best international index practices to ensure that the market receives a transparent and reliable tool for tracking dynamics and decision-making.
- Ukraine
· As of 04.09.25, 28.8 million tons of grains and oilseeds were threshed in Ukraine, compared to 29.1 million tons last year. In particular: wheat - 21.9 million tons (2024: 21.8 million tons), barley - 5.3 million tons (5.5 million tons), rape - 3.2 million tons (3.4 million tons), sunflower - 208.1 thousand tons (1.4 million tons), soybeans - 135 thousand tons (1 million tons).
· Exports of agricultural products in August amounted to 3.7 million tons against 4.7 million tons last year. Including: wheat - 2 million tons (2.2 million tons), rape - 519 thousand tons (794 thousand tons), corn - 229 thousand tons (645 thousand tons), barley - 323 thousand tons (469 thousand tons), soybeans - 207 thousand tons (145 thousand tons), sunflower oil - 161 thousand tons (199 thousand tons).
- CORN
Harvesting of corn in Ukraine began with the expected delay. As of 05.09, only 1.5 thousand tons were threshed against 460 thousand tons last year on the same date. At the same time, August export shipments have become the lowest in history.
Spot corn prices with delivery to Ukrainian ports were adjusted: buyers were trading in the range of $205-215, and the highest premium was received by corn with delivery within 10 days.
Foreign markets began to come alive after the return of traders from holidays. In Italy the quotations settled at €2-3 over the previous week, reaching €220 FCA Ravenna/Venice. Italian buyers also again showed interest in the Western border of Ukraine, where for October-December they were ready to pay up to €185 with loading in eurocars.
Northern Europe, with a larger offer of its own corn, continues to bargain with a discount against Italy - within €190-200.
- WHEAT
The harvesting of wheat in Ukraine is almost complete, and the market is in the phase of balancing supply and demand. Food wheat remains under pressure due to the growth of the world's supply by major northern hemisphere producers. At the same time, feed wheat was supported by the lower liquidity of feed grains and delays in the start of the corn harvesting campaign.
Domestic processing continues to actively buy food wheat within its annual demand — up to 7 million tons. Most mills and processing enterprises form stocks for 3-5 months, using a favorable subsidence of prices.
Domestic processing prices show premium: over 20% of quality wheat with gluten and 11.5% protein content already offer a premium of up to $5 against the export market.
- SUNFLOWER
As of 04.09, only 208,000 tons of sunflower have been threshed in Ukraine against 1.4 million tons last year on the same date. At the beginning of the week, sunflower prices were adjusted to $670 with VAT and delivered to the factory. Delayed harvesting campaign limits the supply and increases suppliers' uncertainty about supplies in September-October. As a result, at the end of the week prices rose to $680 with VAT on September deliveries.
Prices for sunflower oil after a long upward trend went into correction. Despite this, the international market remains a shortage of supply in September-October, while since November there has been a gradual decline. In the ports of Northern Europe, sunflower oil was traded on September in the range of $1'350-1'400, on October-December $1'260-1'300, and on January-March $1'220-1'250. Traders take advantage of the opportunity and actively buy oil for later periods, hoping to resume price increases.
- RAPESEED
Rapeseed export in Ukraine stopped completely. A significant part of traders, expecting the introduction of export duties, since August, bought rape exclusively from producers. However, this did not save them: 04.09 the customs office canceled all periodic customs declarations, including those from manufacturers who were to be exempt from payment of customs duties. The absence of a confirmation mechanism for the customs of the fact of export of own products has led to the fact that manufacturers are forced to pay 10% of the fee before the fact of origin is established. Due to the reluctance of farmers to pay customs duties and the imperfection of the law on the export of rapeseed and soybeans, traders were held hostage to the situation, carrying significant losses in the spaces of ships in ports, while business and government are trying to negotiate a working mechanism.
In the systems of customs, tax and profile ministries, there are instruments for confirming the products, but their fragmentation in time and lack of coordination between the authorities have actually blocked the process.
This situation was used by internal processors, which during the week began to gradually reduce the purchase prices. For producers, no alternative distribution of rapeseed can become a reality for at least a month — until the legislation and mechanisms are finalized.
For a week, domestic purchase prices for recycling fell from $600 with VAT earlier in the week to $585 with VAT to complete it. Export quotations also decreased by $15-20 to $520-530. Rapeseed oil prices had lost around $30 the previous week, and were trading at €1,050-1,060 FOB northern ports.
- SOYA
Export prices for soybeans rose to $396-400 on the CPT base for Ukrainian ports delivered in October-November. At the same time, domestic prices for recycling fell by $10 per week and were trading at $435-440 with VAT delivered to the factory in October.
The pace of collection is significantly lagging behind: the campaign delay is almost 1 million tons compared to last year's figures.
The market for soybean oil remained stable. FCA Hamburg quotes throughout the week were kept unchanged at €1'090-1'105.
Sep 08 - Prices for new crop sunflower in Ukraine were actively increasing (APK-Inform)
In Ukraine, the sunflower and sunflower oil sector over the past week was influenced by several factors at once:
- downward revision of sunflower production estimates in key EU-producing countries due to summer heat;
- uncertainty regarding sunflower production estimates in Ukraine due to unfavorable weather conditions in the main growing region – in the south and partly in the center;
- reduction by Oil World analysts of the global sunflower oil production estimate for 2025/26 MY due to uncertainty about oilseed production in major countries;
- the start of export duties on soybeans and rapeseed in Ukraine.
As a result, demand prices for new crop raw material were rapidly recovering after processors’ attempts to seasonally lower prices, and by the end of the reporting period were in the range of 27.000-28.000 UAH per ton CPT-plant.
Processors were ready to pay extra for oil content above 50%.
Sep 08 - World food prices at more than two-year high, FAO says
World food prices hovered around their highest level in more than two years in August, as costlier meat, sugar and vegetable oil offset cheaper cereals and dairy products, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday. The FAO Food Price Index, which measures changes in the price of a basket of food staples traded internationally, stood at 130.1 points in August, compared with a revised 130.0 in July. It was 6.9% higher than a year earlier.
Sep 08 - China slaps initial duties on EU pork imports
China on Friday placed initial anti-dumping duties of up to 62.4% on pork imports worth over $2 billion from the European Union, deepening trade tensions that spiked when the bloc imposed tariffs on China-made electric vehicles. The Ministry of Commerce's preliminary investigation into pork products found evidence of dumping that damaged the domestic industry and approved duties starting on September 10, according to a release on Friday.
Sep 05 - Export prices for feed barley declined in Ukraine (APK-Inform)
According to APK-Inform, this week the demand prices for feed barley on the Ukrainian export market have been decreasing.
In many cases, companies that had already covered their positions under previously concluded contracts lowered their purchasing prices for this crop. Additional pressure on prices came from the downward trend in the adjacent wheat market.
In the ports of Greater Odesa and the Danube, purchasing prices for feed barley decreased by $1-4 per ton and, as of September 4, 2025, are mostly quoted in the ranges of $210-219 and $206–215 per ton CPT-port, respectively.
Sep 05 - Export duty from the Russian Federation from September 10 (Prozerno)
▪️for wheat — 168,6 rub/t
▪️for barley - zero
▪️for corn - zero
Sep 04 - EU proposes Mercosur trade deal, French opposition softens
The European Commission presented the EU's trade accord with South America's Mercosur bloc for approval on Wednesday and appeared to be softening opposition from the deal's main critic, France, with promises of possible limits on farm product imports. The European Union and the bloc of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay reached agreement to create the EU's largest ever trade accord last December, some 25 years after negotiations were launched.
Sep 04 - Ukraine 2025/26 sugar output seen falling amid problems with exports, union says
Ukraine is likely to reduce white sugar production to up to 1.5 million metric tons in 2025 from 1.8 million tons due to significant stocks and export challenges, the head of the national sugar union Ukrtsukor said late on Tuesday. During the Soviet era, Ukraine produced 5 million tons of sugar from sugar beet, but since then it has sharply reduced production, mainly due to export difficulties.
Sep 03 - Coffee roasters hike prices in Brazil as raw bean costs surge
Coffee roasters 3 Coracoes and Melitta are raising prices for their products in Brazil, the world's second-largest coffee consumer behind the U.S., according to documents sent to clients and seen by Reuters. A joint venture between Brazilian company Sao Miguel and Israeli group Strauss, 3 Coracoes said it was increasing prices for roast and ground coffee by 10% and for instant coffee by 7% as of September 1.
Sep 03 - India eyes record cotton buying as imports, US tariffs dampen prices
India is expected to purchase a record volume of cotton from farmers in the upcoming season, as domestic prices face pressure from cheaper imports and weakening demand following hefty U.S. tariffs on textile exports, industry officials told Reuters. Cotton consumption in the world's second-largest producer has slowed, with exporters reporting a sharp decline in orders from the United States, which accounts for nearly 29% of India's $38 billion in annual textile exports.
Sep 02 - Russian wheat export forecast raised; sluggish start of campaign negatively affects the prospects of the season (SovEkon)
SovEkon raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 0.4 million tons to 43.7 million tons. A year earlier, 40.8 million tons of wheat were shipped from Russia. Export estimates have been raised on the back of good harvest prospects, but shipments in the first months of the season are historically low.
The revised wheat export forecast comes on the heels of an increase in harvest estimates to 85.4m tons from 83.6m tons in July. A year earlier, Russian farmers harvested 82.6 million tons. The revision of production estimates was facilitated by good harvest views in the Urals and Siberia.
Despite the relatively good harvest, we are not prepared to raise our estimates more seriously, given the sluggish start of the export campaign. According to SovEkon, total wheat exports in July and August amounted to 6.1 million tons, compared to 9.9 million tons a year earlier and 8.1 million tons on average over five years. Export performance in September is also expected to be historically low.
Major importers have slowed their purchases of Russian wheat this season. In July-August, Egypt shipped 1.1m tons of wheat compared to 1.5m tons a year earlier, while Algeria shipped 0.1m tons compared to 0.5m tons a year earlier.
In a few months, importers may start eyeing a new crop from Argentina and Australia, with species improving. In September, the Australian Ministry of Agriculture raised its estimate of wheat production in the 2025-26 season to 33.8m tons from 30.6m tons in June, a 22% increase over the 10-year average. Market participants estimate that Argentina's wheat harvest could exceed 20 million tons, up from 18.6 million tons a year earlier.
The ruble has remained relatively stable, despite a sharp fall in energy prices. Since early August, the ruble has hovered around the 80-to-dollar mark.
In addition to other problems for Russian exporters, FOB prices have been declining recently. From mid to late August, export prices fell by $7/t to $233/t.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates Russia's wheat exports at 46.0m tons.
Improved views of the new wheat crop, coupled with sluggish exports, will put pressure on the ruble prices.
Sep 02 - Russian wheat export prices continue to decline amid weak demand (IKAR)
Russian wheat export prices continued to decline last week amid more active arrivals of the new harvest and sluggish export purchases, analysts said. The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board delivery in late September-early October was $230 a metric ton at the end of last week, down $5 from the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.
Sep 02 - Australia set for above average wheat harvest on improved growing conditions – ABARES
Australia's wheat output is projected to drop 1% this year to 33.8 million metric tons, although the production is poised to be 22% above the 10-year average on the back of largely crop-friendly growing conditions, the agriculture ministry said. Barley and canola output are expected to rise with production of both crops likely to be above average, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences said in a quarterly crop report.
Sep 02 - India's August palm oil imports surge 16% to 13-month high ahead of festive season
India's palm oil imports surged in August to a 13-month high, as competitive pricing relative to soyoil prompted refiners to ramp up purchases ahead of the festive season, according to five dealers. Higher palm oil imports by India, the world's largest buyer of vegetable oils, are expected to help top producers Indonesia and Malaysia reduce inventories and support benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures.
Sep 01 - China boosts soybean buys from Argentina, Uruguay amid US trade war, sources say
China's soybean importers are boosting purchases from Argentina and Uruguay over the next year to fill the supply gap left by the absence of U.S. shipments as the trade war drags on between Washington and Beijing, according to two trade sources. Chinese processors may buy up to 10 million metric tons of soybeans from the two South American exporters during the 2025/26 marketing year ending next August, which would be a record, said the sources, a Singapore-based trader at an international company which sells soybeans to China and a second person who trades soybeans for China.
Sep 01 - ISO forecasts smaller global sugar deficit for 2025/26
The International Sugar Organization expects the 2025/26 season's supply deficit to decline sharply, driven by a rise in global production, it said on Friday. The inter-governmental body's quarterly update projected a global deficit of 231,000 metric tons for 2025/26 (October/September), down from 4.88 million tons in the current season.
Aug 29 - Ukrainian Agri Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)
- Ukraine
· As of 21.08.25, 28.4 million tons of grains and oilseeds were threshed in Ukraine, compared to 28.7 million tons last year. In particular: wheat - 21.9 million tons (2024: 21.8 million tons), barley - 5.2 million tons (5.5 million tons), rape - 3.2 million tons (3.4 million tons), sunflower - 13.2 thousand tons (419 thousand tons), soybeans - 10.4 thousand tons (382 thousand tons).
· As of 28.08.25, agricultural exports amounted to 3.7 million tons against 5.1 million tons last year. The main volumes in August: wheat - 1.8 million tons (1.9 million tons), rape - 400 thousand tons (842 thousand tons), corn - 237 thousand tons (698 thousand tons), barley - 305 thousand tons (512 thousand tons), soybeans - 174 thousand tons (154 thousand tons), sunflower oil - 145 thousand tons (219 thousand tons).
- CORN
Total domestic consumption of corn in Ukraine has increased to 5.7-6.0 million tons in recent years. Exports in August amounted to 237 thousand tons against 698 thousand tons last year. Prices in the domestic market remain stable on the current crop: processing plants pay the equivalent of $240-245 CPT port.
New crop corn was traded at $202-206 DAP ports (October-November supply) with a limited supply. Producers focus on the marketing of oilseeds, while grains tend to be deposited for long-term storage. On the western border, corn is nominally traded at around €180 loaded into the euro train FCA Chop towards Italy.
- WHEAT
As of 28.08, Ukraine shipped 860 thousand tons of wheat less than last year for the same period. The completion of the wheat harvesting campaign increased the supply in the domestic market. The increase in supply is observed in foreign markets, which complicates competition for sales. Ukrainian exporters can compete only through the mixing of forage and food wheat to reduce prices.
Prices for feed wheat remain unchanged, while food wheat fell somewhat in price in ports.
- SUNFLOWER
Prices for sunflower forward set a new record. This was due to low residues and limited supply of oil at the end of the season. The peak price of oil in the northern ports of Europe was traded at $1300, while the price of sunflower on a forward in Ukraine reached $680-690 with VAT depending on the oil content.
It is worth paying attention to the lower prices for sunflower oil on the international market, starting from December. This indicates the balancing of the oil market due to the increase in supply. In particular, the season 25/26 is expected to increase sunflower production in the Black Sea region by almost 4 million tons more than last year.
The beginning of the season can be a trap for uncertain farmers who postpone sales for later periods.
- RAPESEED
The MATIF rapeseed has fallen to €462 and has punched important levels of support. Weakness of rapeseed prices in Europe is caused by confirmation of increased harvest by at least 2 million tons compared to last year. The European Commission has updated its own forecast for the harvest to 18.5 million tons, while the USDA estimate is at 19.5 million tons!
- SOYA
The EU increased imports of soybean meal in the season 24/25 to 22 million tons, which is +3.6 million tons more than in the previous year. The growth of imports of meal is due to a decrease in the internal harvest of soybeans and increased demand from the livestock sector.
The European Commission estimates soybean yields in the EU in the 25/26 season at the level of 3 million tons. At the same time, soybean imports to the EU in the 25/26 season may decrease due to a significant supply of soybean meal from the United States, Brazil and Argentina.
Aug 29 - EU sharply cuts maize crop forecast, raises soft wheat
The European Commission on Thursday sharply cut its forecast for maize production in the European Union this season to below last season's volume, while slightly raising its estimate for the soft wheat harvest. In supply and demand data, the Commission forecast 2025/26 usable production of maize at 57.6 million tons, down from 60.1 million forecast last month and 3.4% below last season.
Aug 29 - South Korea’s MFG buys about 60,000 tons soymeal, traders say
South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group purchased around 60,000 metric tons of soymeal in an international tender on Thursday, European traders said. The purchase was expected to be sourced from South America, although the tender sought optional origin supplies from either South America, the United States or China.
Aug 29 - Jordan tenders to buy 120,000 tons feed barley, traders say
Jordan's state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is September 3.
Aug 28 - Taiwan's MFIG buys about 65,000 tons corn from US, traders say
Taiwan's MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said. The yellow corn was purchased at an estimated premium of 177.00 U.S. cents a bushel cost and freight included over the Chicago March 2026 corn contract, they said.
Aug 28 - Asia's pledge to boost US farm imports may redraw trade flows
Southeast Asian nations are set to reshape global grains and oilseed trade flows through U.S. trade deals that include raising agriculture purchases, with increased American shipments displacing Australian, Canadian and Russian supply. While Indonesia and Bangladesh have already agreed to increased buying as part of agreements that set lowered tariffs on their exports to the U.S., regional grains traders say Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand may boost feed grain purchases under their deals.
Aug 28 - Demand prices for Russian wheat are falling (APK-Inform)
Over the past week, demand prices for Russian wheat (12.5% protein) for delivery in August-September fell by $7, to $235 per ton (FOB), Interfax reports, citing data from the analytical center of Rusagrotrans JSC.
“The price drop happened due to the acceleration of new crop grain shipments from Russia and Ukraine, and the increased competitiveness of French wheat due to the weakening of the euro,” the center explained.
The export price for Russian barley, on the other hand, increased by $5 over the week, to $229 per ton (FOB), “due to continued growth of domestic prices caused by limited supply in the south and strong demand on the global market from China.”
It is also reported that the price for wheat (class 4, 12.5% protein) at Russia’s deep-water ports dropped by 350 RUB, to 16.500 RUB per ton (excluding VAT). On shallow water, prices weakened by 150 RUB, to 14.700 RUB per ton, while purchasing activity remained low.
Aug 28 - Ukraine 2025 wheat crop seen at 21.8 million tons, corn at 28 million-29 million - farm union
Ukraine's 2025 wheat harvest is forecast at a maximum of 21.8 million metric tons, down from 22.7 million tons in 2024, the UAC farmers' union said on Wednesday, slightly raising its outlook for this year's corn crop. Ukraine is a major global supplier of grains, including wheat and corn, and exports about 40 million tons in total per season.
Aug 27 - Brazil's Conab cuts 2025/26 sugar output forecast
Brazil's national crop agency Conab on Tuesday cut its forecast for sugar production in the 2025/26 season to 44.5 million metric tons, citing bad weather conditions impacting cultivation of sugarcane. Sugar output in the key center-south region is now forecast at 40.6 million tons, down 2.8% from the April forecast of 41.8 million tons, Conab said.
Aug 27 - Indonesia says US agrees tariff exemption for its palm oil, cocoa and rubber
The United States has agreed in principle to exempt Indonesian exports of cocoa, palm oil and rubber from the 19% tariff imposed by President Donald Trump since August 7, Indonesia's top trade negotiator said on Tuesday. The exemption will take effect once both sides reach a final agreement, but no timeline has been set because the U.S. is busy in tariff talks with other countries, Airlangga Hartarto, who is also the chief economic minister, told Reuters.
Aug 26 - Strong supply and harvest forecast push down Russian wheat export prices, analysts say
Russian wheat export prices fell last week amid a seasonal peak in supply and optimistic harvest forecasts. The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board delivery in the second half of September was $235 a metric ton at the end of last week, down $3.50 from the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.
Aug 26 - Zimbabwe brings back maize import ban after bumper harvest
Zimbabwe has brought back a ban on maize imports to boost local farmers, and has grown enough of its own this year to supply its millers after a bumper harvest, a senior agriculture ministry official said on Monday. Improved rainfall boosted output and reversed a sharp decline last year when an El Nino-induced drought forced the country to rely on imports, including genetically modified maize.
Aug 26 - US soy crop rating improves amid expectations for big harvest
The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its good-to-excellent rating for the nation's soybean crop and kept its corn crop rating steady in a weekly report on Monday, surprising analysts who expected slight declines. The historically strong ratings helped to support projections for a record-breaking corn crop and bumper soy harvest this autumn after largely favorable summertime weather across much of the Midwest farm belt.
Aug 25 - China says 'rampant' US protectionism threatens agricultural ties
U.S. protectionism is undermining agricultural cooperation with China, Beijing's ambassador to Washington said, warning that farmers should not bear the price of the trade war between the world's two largest economies. "It goes without saying that protectionism is rampant, casting a shadow over China-U.S. agricultural cooperation," said Xie Feng, according to the transcript of a speech published by the Chinese embassy on Saturday.
Aug 25 - Crop tour projects record 2025 US corn harvest, but disease could hit yields
U.S. farmers will harvest a record corn crop in 2025 after ideal weather across much of the Midwest this summer, but the bounty will fall short of the U.S. government's lofty outlook as pockets of plant disease and heat stress dented yields in spots across the farm belt, crop consultancy Pro Farmer said on Friday. Growers are also expected to reap a bumper soybean crop, although dry conditions in parts of the eastern Midwest and pockets of disease pressure in Iowa may limit yield potential, Pro Farmer said after its annual four-day tour across seven top-producing states this week.
Aug 22 - Ukraine Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)
Sold in a week - Ukraine
· As of 21.08.25, 27.2 million tons of grains and oilseeds were threshed in Ukraine, compared to 28.6 million tons last year. In particular: wheat - 21 million tons (2024: 21.7 million tons), barley - 5 million tons (5.5 million tons), rape - 3.2 million tons (3.4 million tons).
· As of 21.08.25, agricultural exports amounted to 2.8 million tons against 4 million tons last year. The main volumes in August: wheat - 1.3 million tons (1.4 million tons), rape - 296 thousand tons (628 thousand tons), corn - 200 thousand tons (610 thousand tons), barley - 247 thousand tons (442 thousand tons), soybeans - 137 thousand tons (134 thousand tons).
- CORN
Corn in the Ukrainian market ended a month earlier than last year. Most market players did not expect this, and internal balances need to be reviewed due to the growth of domestic consumption, which reduced the supply of grain at the end of the season 24/25. The difference in prices between the old and new harvests has peaked at $50 and in no way encourages producers to sell the new crop. Export in August at 200 thousand tons only confirms the lack of supply. How it will affect the price of the new crop - ask our brokers!
The prices of the old crop were kept at $250+ DAP ports. New crop prices recovered to $204-206 DAP ports (October-November supply) with limited supply. On the western border without changes - the European market is on "leave", so the activity of buyers remains very low.
- WHEAT
The backlog of export shipments of wheat continues and as of the end of August may reach 1.3 million tons for the period July-August compared to last year. The 2025 harvest at 22 million tons is likely to be confirmed and will be close to this figure.
The market has a difference of more than $20 between forage and food wheat. It is thanks to this difference and mixing of quality that traders can maintain current price levels for food wheat in ports and continue to compete in sales markets with Ukrainian grain. What it means in the short term for prices - ask our brokers!
- SUNFLOWER
Prices for sunflower of the new crop remain stable and have not undergone significant changes. Under forward contracts this season, the price difference is $100. Plants will likely attempt to use forward volumes as an argument to lower prices at the start of the season.
The forward prices for sunflower are kept at a high level - about $630 with VAT DAP plants (delivery September-October), although individual plants have already started a seasonal decline.
The price of oil is traded in the "core", and the meal is prepared for correction since November. What it means for the price of sunflower - know our brokers!
- RAPESEED
Prices for rape were fixed in comparison with the previous week and traded at $535-545 with delivery to the port. At the same time, prices in Germany also increased. Most European plants are willing to pay a premium for oil content of 1.5% of the price for each 1% oil content of more than 40%. So manufacturers who have a good oil content index, contact ʼ with us!
- SOYA
Prices for soybeans, both GMOs and non-GMOs, remained unchanged compared to the previous week. At the same time, the cost of soybean processing at current export prices is unprofitable. Our brokers know how they will continue to interact with the domestic processing market and export segment!
Aug 22 - In niche wheat futures market, rebooted legacy contract fends off new offering from giant rival
In a head-to-head contest in a small corner of agricultural futures markets, a legacy spring wheat contract that has traded for more than 140 years is fending off a challenge from a competing contract launched this spring by CME Group, the world's largest futures exchange. Spring wheat, grown in the northern Plains of the U.S. and Canada, is favored for bagels and frozen dough. The contract was introduced in 1883 on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange and has long set the price for premium-quality wheat used by North American millers and exported around the world.
Aug 22 - IGC raises world corn output forecast on bumper US crop
The International Grains Council has raised its forecast for 2025/26 global corn production, largely reflecting an improved outlook for the U.S. crop. The inter-governmental body, in a monthly update, projected the global corn crop would reach a record 1.299 billion tons, up 23 million tons from its previous estimate.
Aug 21 - Ukraine exported 1.4 million tons of grain in the first 20 days of August (APK-Inform )
As of August 20, Ukraine had exported 3.084 million tons of grain and legumes since the beginning of the 2024/25 MY, of which 1.419 million tons were shipped in the current month. This was reported by the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, citing operational data from the State Customs Service of Ukraine.
It is noted that as of August 23 last year, the total volume of shipments amounted to 6.385 million tons, including 2.683 million tons in August.
By crops, since the beginning of the new season, the following was exported:
- wheat – 1.726 million tons (968.000 in August);
- barley – 503.000 tons (246.000 tons);
- corn – 841.000 tons (198.000 tons).
As of August 20, total exports of Ukrainian flour since the beginning of the season are estimated at 6.7 thousand tons (3.2 thousand tons in August), including 6.4 thousand tons of wheat flour (3.1 thousand tons).
Aug 21 - Bunge diverts Argentina's first soy meal shipment set for China
Agricultural export firm Bunge told Reuters on Wednesday it had diverted a shipment of Argentine soybean meal that was destined for China to another destination "for commercial reasons," after reports this was due to quality concerns. The shipment had been set to mark Argentina's first soy meal cargo to China since Beijing approved imports in 2019.
Aug 21 - Argentine rains seen boosting corn planting area to near-record size
Argentina's corn planting area is expected to span some 7.8 million hectares this 2025/26 season, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Wednesday, up 9.6% from the area that was planted for the current season thanks to abundant rains. If planted, this will be Argentina's second-largest area ever planted with the staple yellow crop, after the 8.4 million hectares recorded in 2023/24. Corn planting is set to begin in September.
Aug 21 - Crop tour finds strong corn, soy potential along with diseases in Illinois, western Iowa
Corn yield potential and soybean prospects are significantly above average across Illinois and western Iowa, though plant diseases could threaten final yields, scouts on an annual crop tour of the Midwest said on Wednesday. The four-day Pro Farmer crop tour, which started on Monday and covered seven major corn and soybean states, found strong production potential so far. Grain market participants have been monitoring the tour's findings to gauge the size of the 2025 harvest in the United States, the world's largest corn exporter and No. 2 soybean supplier.
Aug 20 - US soybean farmers urge Trump to make purchase deal with China
U.S. soybean farmers urged President Donald Trump in a Tuesday letter to reach a trade deal with China that secures significant soybean purchase agreements, warning of dire long-term economic outcomes if the country continues to shun the U.S. crop. China, the world's largest soybean buyer, is turning to Brazilian cargoes amid trade tensions with the U.S. and ongoing negotiations. The country has not pre-purchased soybeans from the upcoming U.S. harvest, an unusual delay that has worried traders and farmers.
Aug 20 - EU 2025/26 soft wheat exports down 53%, with French data still missing
European Union soft wheat exports since the start of the 2025/26 season on July 1 are still less than half the volume of a year ago, with the lag amplified by the absence of any figures for top EU producer France, European Commission data showed on Tuesday. EU soft wheat exports as of August 17 were 1.78 million metric tons, against 1.43 million tons the previous week and down 53% from a year earlier.
Aug 19 - China buys first Australian canola cargo since 2020, traders say
Chinese state-run trading firm COFCO has booked a cargo of about 50,000 metric tons of new-crop Australian canola, two traders told Reuters, just days after Beijing imposed temporary levies on top supplier Canada. The purchase would mark China's first imports from Australia since 2020 when Australia, the world's second-largest canola exporter, was locked out of the Chinese market, largely due to phytosanitary restrictions aimed at preventing the spread of fungal plant disease.
Aug 19 - Brazil regulator suspends soy moratorium, orders probe of exporters
Brazil's competition authority CADE has given grain traders in the world's largest soybean exporter 10 days to suspend a program called "soy moratorium" or face hefty fines, in a ruling seen by Reuters on Monday. The two-decade-old private pact seeks to protect the Amazon rainforest, by barring soybean traders from buying from farmers who cleared land there after July 2008, but it represents a potential breach of Brazilian competition law.
Aug 19 - India removes import duty on cotton in temporary relief for garment industry
India has exempted import duties on cotton from August 19 to September 30, fulfilling the demand of industry groups who said exemptions would help make the sector more competitive. The temporary suspension of the duty, announced in a government order late on Monday, is seen as a relief for India’s garment industry, which is reeling from a steep 50% tariff on shipments to the United States.
Aug 18 - Ukraine Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)
Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, yellow-leaf
· feed wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, sickle-veres
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, yellow-leaf
· rape NE-GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, sickle-veres
· sunflower DAP pd. Ukraine, heather-yellow
Ukraine
· As of 14.08.25, 24.8 million tons of grains and oilseeds were threshed in Ukraine, compared to 28.4 million tons last year. In particular: wheat - 19 million tons (2024: 21.7 million tons), barley - 4.7 million tons (5.4 million tons), rape - 3.0 million tons (3.3 million tons).
· As of 14.08.25, agricultural exports amounted to 1.8 million tons against 2.8 million tons last year. The main volumes in August: wheat - 758 thousand tons (959 thousand tons), rape - 222 thousand tons (444 thousand tons), corn - 182 thousand tons (464 thousand tons), barley - 206 thousand tons (232 thousand tons), soybeans - 109 thousand tons (99 thousand tons).
CORN
Prices for corn of the old crop are kept at a high level without changes, which fully reflects the state of the situation and offers in the market. Export in August at 182 thousand tons at the price of a new crop of 40$ lower for the current confirms the almost complete absence of supply. Ukraine is increasing domestic consumption of corn, which is also confirmed by reduced volumes of export of sunflower meal used in feeding with corn.
Prices of the old crop were kept at 240$+ DAP ports. The new crop was adjusted to 198-200$ DAP ports (delivery October-November). On the western border, corn also decreased - 178-180€ FCA Chop (supply October-March).
WHEAT
The rapid growth of the average yield of wheat in Ukraine to 43.2 kg / ha (against 40.2 kg / ha last week) increases the supply in the market. The bulk comes from the western regions of feed quality, which can align the ratio of food and feed grain to 50/50. As a result, the difference in price between food wheat and forage wheat rose to $20. Food traded at 228-230$ DAP ports (depending on quality), forage - 208-212$ depending on protein.
SUNFLOWER
Prices for sunflower new crop strengthened and traded at 620-625$ with VAT DAP plants (delivery in September-October). The premium for high oleic sunflower is 70-80$ unchanged. Against the background of low prices for corn of the new crop, agricultural producers see an advantageous opportunity in the sale of sunflower.
RAPESEED
Sharp fluctuations in rapeseed prices on the MATIF exchange this week made the market participants nervous. The geopolitical background affects the fundamental structure of the market - China introduced duties on Canadian rapeseed.
In Europe, prices fell by 5-10€, depending on the destination. The award to MATIF unchanged - 2-5€ to the November futures for the supply of North-West Germany (40% oil). Germany pays +1.5% to the price for each 1% oil above 40%. In the ports prices decreased by ~10$ against last week.
SOYA
Soybean prices, both GMO and NE-GMO, have increased by an average of $5 in all directions. The strengthening of quotations on the Chicago Exchange added confidence to buyers in the global market.
Aug 18 - Around 25 million tons of grain have been harvested in Ukraine (APK-Inform)
According to the operational data of the Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture, as of August 14, grain and legume crops in Ukraine have been harvested from almost 6.187 million hectares (55% of the planned area), from which 24.806 million tons of grain were threshed, with an average yield of 4.01 tons/ha.
It is noted that as of August 15 last year, grain and legume crops in Ukraine were harvested from 6.713 million hectares (61% of the planned area). The total gross harvest was estimated at 28.459 million tons, with an average yield of 4.24 tons/ha.
By crop, the harvesting progress is as follows:
▪️wheat - 18.986 million tons from 4.396 million ha (88%) with a yield of 4.32 tons/ha;
▪️barley - 4.732 million tons from 1.247 million ha (90%) with a yield of 3.79 tons/ha;
▪️peas - 573.5 thousand tons from 230.2 thousand ha (94%) with a yield of 2.49 tons/ha;...
Aug 18 - Russian ports reduced grain transshipment by nearly 55% in 2025 (APK-Inform)
In January-July of the current year, Russian seaports reduced grain transshipment volumes by 54.5% compared to the same period last year - to 19.7 million tons. This was reported by the Association of Russian Sea Commercial Ports.
A decrease is also recorded in the transshipment of liquid food cargoes, which is estimated at 15.1% - down to 3.2 million tons.
At the same time, the transshipment volumes of mineral fertilizers increased by 8.3% during the reporting period, reaching 27.1 million tons.
Overall, in the first 7 months of 2025, Russian seaports reduced cargo turnover by 4.6% compared to the result in January-July of the previous year - to 498.8 million tons.
Aug 18 - Russia expects 2025 record sunflower harvest despite problems in the south
The sunflower harvest in Russia is expected to be record high this year, despite forecasts of a significant decline in the main southern regions, thanks to an increase in acreage and good forecasts for other regions of the country, analysts say. Russia's IKAR consultancy forecasts a record 17.9 million-18 million metric tons compared to 16.2 million tons in 2024, and SovEcon also expects a record 17.9 million tons.
Aug 18 - Draft 'MAHA' commission report avoids pesticide crackdown feared by farm groups
The White House will not impose new guardrails on the farm industry's use of pesticides as part of a strategy to address children's health outcomes, according to a draft obtained by Reuters of a widely anticipated report from President Donald Trump's "Make America Healthy Again" commission. The draft document recommends that the administration promote healthier diets and examine vaccines and prescription drugs but stops short of advising any change to how the U.S. approves or regulates agrochemicals.
Aug 15 - Larger German wheat, rapeseed crop expected despite rain, farm body says
Germany's 2025 wheat crop will likely jump 21.1% year on year to 22.42 million metric tons, with repeated rain as harvesting started causing less damage than feared, the country's association of farm cooperatives, DRV, said on Thursday. It forecast Germany's harvest of winter rapeseed, used for vegetable oil and biodiesel production, will rise 7.0% on-year to 3.87 million tons.
Aug 15 - French maize conditions worsen as heatwave hits
Maize crop conditions in France, the European Union's biggest grain producer, declined last week and were at a three-year low as a heatwave set in, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed on Thursday. The office estimated that 65% of maize crops were in good or excellent condition by Monday, down from 67% a week earlier and the second consecutive weekly drop.
Aug 15 - Importers struggle to resell Canadian canola meal caught in China tariff crossfire
Importers are struggling to resell several cargoes of Canadian canola meal that arrived in China after Beijing imposed hefty import tariffs on the protein-rich ingredient, three trade sources said. Up to 400,000 metric tons of canola meal, used mainly in animal feed, is sitting in secure warehouses near Chinese ports, with importers facing a 100% duty if they release the cargoes for sale in the domestic market.
Aug 15 - Brazil crop agency raises total corn, export forecasts
Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest 137 million metric tons of corn in 2024/25, crop agency Conab said on Thursday after raising its estimate for second-corn production by 5 million tons to 109.6 million tons. Conab also increased its Brazilian corn export forecast to 40 million tons from 36 million tons, given the country's abundant supplies this season.
Aug 14 - Argentina exchange sees corn planting up as much as 20% in coming campaign
Farmers in Argentina's central crop region intend to increase corn planting by between 15% and 20% in the 2025/26 season compared to the prior season, the Rosario grains exchange reported in a forecast on Wednesday. Corn planting in the key food-exporting country begins in September.
Aug 13 - Record US corn harvest expected
U.S. farmers will produce record-breaking corn and soybean yields this autumn and harvest the nation's biggest corn crop in history, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday. The outlooks reflect favorable weather that benefited farm fields this summer and a surprisingly large increase in the USDA's estimate for springtime corn plantings.
Aug 13 - US coffee buyers requesting to postpone Brazil imports, Brazilian lobby says
Coffee buyers in the United States have started requesting to postpone imports of Brazilian coffee following a 50% tariff imposed on Brazilian goods by U.S. President Donald Trump, local exporters' group Cecafe said on Tuesday. The U.S. coffee industry, a major buyer of Brazilian coffee, is now in a holding pattern as it awaits news on tariff negotiations, said Cecafe President Marcio Ferreira.
Aug 13 - Australian malt, malting barley face export headwinds (Grain Central )
AUSTRALIA is one of the world’s leading exporters of premium malting barley, but not this year, as economic pressures impact its major market, China. They have China looking for fair average quality, or FAQ, barley, to malt for a price-conscious domestic market, and export to customers in Asia who previously bought up big from Australian maltsters.
The trend is squeezing margins for Australian growers and malt exporters, and was addressed in both the Grain Industry of Western Australia barley forum last week, and at the Australian Grains Industry Conference the week before, ahead of what could well be a bumper Australian barley harvest.
Latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data paint the picture: Australia exported 4.02 million tonnes (Mt) of feed barley, including FAQ, and 980,934t of malting to China in the nine months to 30 June 2025. This compares with 3.66Mt of feed including FAQ and 1.82Mt of malting in the previous corresponding period.
Comments around this are not critical of China, which in August 2023 returned to the fold as Australia’s key barley customer after it removed an 80.5pc tariff imposed in May 2020. They do, however, raise questions about how effective Australia is in marketing a premium product amid slowed growth in global beer demand. Speaking at AGIC, and recently back from a trip to China, Riordan Group chief commercial officer Mark Lewis said Australia’s rebranding of FAQ barley as Malt MV might be the answer.
“As an industry, I think we’ve kind of dropped the ball a little bit; it’s a challenge to everyone in the room to say let’s rebrand at least how we’re selling that product,” Mr Lewis said in AGIC 2025’s Australian Market Review – Outlook, Challenges and Opportunities panel session.
“Let’s call our FAQ Malt MV: multi-variety.
“It gets ‘malt’ back into the name and it…brings some premiumisation into that product that we’re trying to sell.
“I think that would go a long way in helping us to enhance our premium product that we’re growing here in Australia.”
Currently, Grain Trade Australia standards offer Malt 1, 2 and 3 classifications, Food Grade, primarily for the Japanese market, and Barley, or BAR, 1 and 2 for feed.
If bulk-handling sites cannot receive grower deliveries into its Malt segregations, they are delivered as feed, and sometimes create stack averages to malting specs, with hatches then sold as FAQ.
On the marketing side, those selling fob or c&f cargoes cannot always extract a premium for Malt barley, and sell as FAQ through a lack of other options.
“The challenge I see is how can we rebrand what we’re doing in that space, understanding the cost pressures in China are what they are.”
Processed malt markets contested
- Riordan Grain is a FOB seller of barley to China and other destinations, and in years past has also shipped processed malt in bulk.
Mr Lewis quantified the size of China’s malt surplus, saying its annual malting capacity has built to a “massive” 5-5.5Mt against their domestic use of around 3Mt.
While China is not thought to have built up its malting capacity with exports in mind, Mr Lewis said malt, like China’s electric vehicles, was being shipped out in increased volume to reflect lacklustre local sales.
“At the moment, the domestic market is very flat.”
“Over time, it’s really a question of what’s going to be happen with that Chinese consumer and are they going to be able to respond to that over-capacity, or will they shut down capacity, and the impact that has for some of our manufacturing product…like malt barley.”
- Boortmalt is one of the world’s, and Australia’s, leading maltsters, and its Geelong-based barley procurement specialist Simon Robertson told the GIWA barley forum the global malt and brewing market “hasn’t been beer and skittles” lately. On the malt front, Australia’s projected loss of market share looks to have shifted directly to China.
“We can see this in terms of malt exports from Australia each year; we were flying in 2022,” Mr Robertson said, referring to shipments in excess of 800,000t.
“For ’25, the way we’re tracking, we’re going to be just over half a million tonnes.”
On the flipside, China’s malt exports look set to almost double in two years from a little over 400,000t shipped in 2023.
“We’re seeing huge growth in Chinese malt exports to the point where potentially they’re going to get close to 800,000t.”
“China generally is using a lot of Australian barley, and re-exporting as malt.”
“If we look at the supply side, what we are seeing is increasing malting capacity and that’s coming from China.”
In recent years, that has come from the likes of COFCO and Supertime.
“We’re also seeing an increase in South America…and that’s new capacities coming on line.”
Overall, he said decreasing demand and increasing capacity were “creating a lot of competition in the marketplace”.
- Russia ramps up
In the global beer market, increased growth has come from Russia, Mexico, and Brazil, which along with Germany, the United States, and China, account for half the world’s beer markets.
“A lot of that growth is coming from Russia.”
China’s beer production fell in 2024 from the previous year, but overall, Mr Robertson said 2025 looks like it will exceed the 1pc growth seen in 2024.
“Things look a little bit better for 2025.”
He said recent years have shown that beer is not recession proof, and after 2020’s COVID-related decline in beer consumption, and the rebound of 2021, a decline started in 2022 to buck the idea that beer production could maintain annual growth of 1.5-2pc.
“In 2023, that was…the first time beer faced these headwinds that are coming from international economic conditions.”
While barley in Australia and other major producing nations is a good fit agronomically, and has potential to go into the feed market if it does not hit malting specifications, Mr Robertson said global factors have influenced its pricing.
“In ’24, we’ve seen compressed premiums for malting over feed; I don’t see that changing in 2025.”
“Partly that’s coming from global beer growth – we’re only seeing that in emerging markets and not so much more mature markets.”
While beer production globally has been decreasing, Mr Robertson said brewers have managed to increase their margins, but that was not flowing through to the maltster.
“What we’re really looking for is for their volumes to increase.”
Mr Robertson said Australian malt exporters were competing head to head with malt made in China from Australian barley.
“We’re seeing significant pressure from China…we’re not seeing a huge variation in FAQ barley that’s being supplied to Chinese maltsters and Malt 1 we’re using in Australia.
“If you look at what the Chinese are buying from Western Australia, 75-80pc of it’s Maximus; it meets a malt specification, it’s germinating, they’re taking 4Mt of it and…maybe they’re able to do tests at destination and use what they can, and the malt they make is good malt.”
When forum participants were asked by WA-based economist Professor Ross Kingwell what has happened to Australia’s comparative advantage in malt production, Barrett Burston Malting’s general manager operations Paul Rigoni said production costs were a contributing factor to its erosion.
“Energy costs are a real bugbear; our industrial relations don’t compete with a country like China,” Mr Rigoni said.
“The drivers are all forcing the pricing down.
Mr Rigoni said while Australian malt competes well on quality, customers were “becoming more and more sensitive” to price, a mindset not expected to change without a shift in market dynamics.
“It’s a tough gig.”
- Big crop coming
In the shipping year to September 2024, ABS data indicates Australia exported 7.91Mt of barley, with 37pc, or 2.94Mt, classified as malting.
In the first nine months of the 2024-25 shipping year, 6.85Mt of barley has been exported, with only 17pc, or 1.15Mt, classified as malting.
The lower proportion of malting in 2024-25 so far indicates not just what is happening in China, but also the impact of a very tough growing season in South Australia, which reduced Australia’s export surplus of malting barley.
Australia was forecast by ABARES on June 3 to produce 12.8Mt of barley from the upcoming harvest, down from 13.3Mt harvested in 2024-25.
In its latest Foreign Agricultural Service report posted July 25, the USDA forecast new-crop Australian barley at 13Mt,
FAS Canberra has maintained its Australian total barley export forecast at 6.5Mt for 2025-26, down 1Mt from the upwardly revised 2024-25 estimate of 7.5Mt.
The drop in exports occurred despite barley production for 2025-26 being only 300,000t lower than the previous year.
“The primary reason for the expected decrease in exports is the exceptionally strong export demand during MY 2024-25, which is forecast to draw down ending stocks to below-average levels,” the report stated.
“As a result, a portion of MY 2025-26 production is expected to be retained bringing domestic stocks back up to more typical levels, thereby limiting availability for export.”
Aug 12 - Ukraine increases 2025 grain crop forecast to 56 million metric tons
Ukraine's economy ministry has revised its 2025 grain crop forecast to 56 million metric tons from 54 million tons previously, Deputy Economy Minister Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters on Monday. He said a larger-than-expected corn harvest of around 28 million tons was the main reason for the higher estimate of overall grain production this year.
Aug 12 - South Korea's MFG tenders for up to 70,000 tons corn
South Korea's Major Feedmill Group has issued an international tender to purchase up to 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, European traders said on Monday. The corn is sought in one consignment of 55,000 to 70,000 tons sourced from the United States, South America or South Africa for arrival in South Korea around December 8, with the seller free to set the tonnage offered inside this range.
Aug 11 - Russia's IKAR consultancy raises 2025 wheat crop, exports forecasts
Russia's IKAR consultancy said on Friday it had raised its 2025 wheat crop forecast to 84.5 million metric tons from 84.0 million previously, and its wheat export forecast by 0.5 million tons to 41.5 million in the new marketing season. Some key grain producing Russian regions in the south were hit by drought this year, but a fall in their output was offset by better yields elsewhere.
Aug 11 - France raises wheat crop estimate, sees fall in maize output
France's farm ministry on Friday increased its estimate of this year's French soft wheat harvest, confirming a sharp rebound from last year, but forecast a smaller maize crop as hot, dry weather was seen affecting yields. For soft wheat, France's main cereal crop, the ministry pegged output at 33.1 million metric tons, up from its initial outlook last month of 32.6 million tons.
Aug 09 - Fismeal / Fishoil Comments and Prices (Hammersmith Blog)
Fishing in the South Region totals about 30,200 m/t after last week which should yield about 6,800 m/t of fishmeal and 650 m/t of fishoil. The balance open on the South quota is now at just under 221,000 m/t.
Trade reports say that as soon as any supply of fishmeal appears from the South it is quickly snapped up by buyers.
Estimates for current fishmeal sales are now up to 555,000 m/t which should still leave a little fishmeal available for sale --- but not much and not high grades.
Fishmeal prices in China are reported to be steady to higher with high stocks on hand and lower sales recorded --- while this may sound a little bearish due to heavy supplies most reports see the China market tending to be more bullish than bearish.
MSI Ceres was saying this week that they expect activity for the next fishing season “will happen very soon” but they add that producers will probably have to look at lower export prices. As they say in their newsletter – “why not start buying early to get to the front of the line.”
Aug 08 - Ukraine Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS )
Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, yellow-leaf
· wheat 12.5pro | 11.5pro | forage DAP Odessa, Ukraine, sickle
· soybean GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, yellow-leaf
· rape NE-GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, sickle
· rape NE-GMO DAP zh. Ukraine, aug
· sunflower IN DAP pd. Ukraine, heather-yellow
- Ukraine
· As of 07.08.25, 19.9 million tons of grain and oil were threshed in Ukraine, compared to the last year's figure of 27.3 million tons. In particular: wheat - 14.9 million tons (2024: 20.9 million tons), barley - 4.2 million tons (5.2 million tons), rape - 2.5 million tons (3.3 million tons).
- CORN
The past week was marked by a decrease in the quotations of corn of the new crop and stabilization of prices for the old one. The growth of the old crop stopped, which is explained by the closure of short positions traders. Corn with delivery in August was traded at 240$ DAP ports.
The market of the new crop begins to lay in the prices of delay in the harvesting of corn. Traders with short positions in October already estimate corn higher than in November. At the same time, the actual need for corn in October remains unknown for the market, so this map will be played "blind" until the real harvest arrives and understanding the volume of physical shipments. Such a market configuration creates risks for the prospects of prices until the end of the year.
- WHEAT
Wheat yields are increasing, and expectations of 21-22 million tons are likely to be justified. As usual after a sharp fall, players bribe wheat, raising the price by 3-4$. The harvesting campaign reaches the final stage - more than 80% of the acreage is collected, which increases the pressure on prices.
In addition to previously contracted volumes for covering ships, the market receives lots of cheap forwards, whose deliveries were shifted due to delays in cleaning. This creates an excessive burden on buyers in the spot.
- SUNFLOWER
Prices for sunflower new crop reached 610-620$, including VAT DAP plants in September-October. For high oleic sunflower, the premium is kept at 70-80$. The growth of quotations has stopped - probably, the Turkish factor has already been fully taken into account in prices, and the market has approached the peak levels. Agricultural producers actively contract 10-20% of the expected production volume.
- RAPESEED
Prices for rape remain under pressure. Difficulties with the sale of oil and meal from European processors do not contribute to the growth of quotations. Exchange prices form new lows, with the closing on Friday at 468€ on the November contract. The active offer of the Baltic rapeseed continues to put pressure on buyers in the EU.
Rape delivery to Germany was traded with a premium of +2-5€ until November. On the western border of Ukraine, the price was kept at 525-530$ DAP, supply by Ukrainian wagons.
- SOYA
Prices for soybeans in Europe are under pressure from the new crop offer. Both GMO and non-GMO soybean new crop in the direction of ports fell by almost $ 5-10 compared to last week.
Aug 08 - Russian wheat production forecast downgraded; South harvest lowest since 2020 (SovEkon)
SovEkon lowered its forecast for Russian wheat production by 0.3 million tons to 83.3 million tons. A year earlier, Russia harvested 82.6 million tons of wheat. The harvest forecast was revised against the backdrop of deteriorating crop prospects in the South.
Wheat yield in the South, Russia's key wheat producer, was 3.6 tons per hectare on August 1, compared to 3.8 tons per hectare a year earlier. The figure has dropped significantly year by year amid dry weather in major agricultural regions. Over the past three months, 60-80 percent of normal rainfall has occurred in southern Russia.
Harvesting in the South is close to completion by the end of August, so crop yields in the region are unlikely to recover. SovEkon lowered its estimate of wheat production in the South by 0.9m tons to 30.2m tons, the lowest since 2020.
The wheat harvest in Rostov (wheat producer No. 1 in Russia) is estimated at 8.1 million tons (-19% gkg), which is the lowest since 2015 (7.4 million tons). Wheat production in Krasnodar (#2) is estimated at 7.3 million tons (-26% of gkg), the lowest since 2013 (7.0 million tons).
At the same time, the average yield in Russia by August 1 exceeded last year's values, reaching the level of 3.7 t/ha compared to 3.6 t/ha a year earlier.
The increase in average yield is associated with good harvest prospects in the central and Volga regions. In the Center, the yield is 4.8 t/ha compared to 4.0 t/ha a year earlier, in the Volga region - 3.3 t/ha compared to 2.6 t/ha a year earlier.
SovEkon also lowered its forecast of Ukrainian wheat production by 2.8 million tons to 19.8 million tons. The estimate was revised amid hot weather in southern Ukraine.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates Russian wheat production at 83.5 million tons, Ukrainian wheat production at 22.0 million tons.
Lower production forecasts in key wheat-producing countries in the Black Sea region could support global prices, partly offsetting pressures from relatively strong harvests elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere.
Aug 08 - Expana raises EU wheat crop forecast and cuts maize
Expana increased its monthly production outlook for the European Union's main wheat crop following favourable harvest results so far, but cut its maize forecast for a second successive month as a result of harsh weather in southeast Europe. In monthly cereal forecasts, which the commodity data firm has taken over from consultancy Strategie Grains, Expana pegged EU soft wheat production in 2025/26 at 132.8 million metric tons, up 2.1 million tons from its July estimate and nearly 17% higher than last season's rain-reduced crop.
Aug 07 - Ukrainian grain export pace in August remains below last year’s level (APKinform)
As of August 6, Ukraine has exported 1.796 million tons of grain and legumes since the beginning of the 2025/26 MY, of which 131.000 tons were shipped in August. This was reported by the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy with reference to the operational data of the State Customs Service of Ukraine.
It is specified that as of August 5 last year, the total export volume amounted to 3.675 million tons, including 234.000 tons in August.
By crops, since the beginning of the new season, the following was exported:
- wheat – 862.000 tons (1.517 million tons in 2024/25 MY);
- barley – 257.000 tons (533.000 tons);
- rye – 0 (0.3 thousand tons);
- corn – 659.000 tons (1.609 million tons).
Total Ukrainian flour exports since the beginning of the season, as of August 6, are estimated at 3.9 thousand tons (4.7 thousand tons in 2024/25 MY), including wheat flour - 4.9 thousand tons (4.5 thousand tons).
Aug 07 - Brazilian soybean products could benefit after Argentina tax shift, industry group says
Brazilian exports of processed soybean products could benefit from recent changes to Argentina's export tax structure, which slightly reduced the competitiveness of the Spanish-speaking country, Brazilian industry group Abiove said on Wednesday. The decision narrows the tax differential between processed soy products and raw beans from 2 percentage points to 1.5, reducing the competitiveness of Argentina's soymeal and soybean oil, Daniel Furlan Amaral, Abiove's director of economics and regulatory affairs, said in an interview.
Aug 07 - On eve of US tariffs, Brazilian beef exports hit record high in July
Exports of fresh beef from Brazil reached a record 276,900 metric tons in July, according to trade data on Wednesday, showing a steep rise before a hefty U.S. tariff applied on sales from the world's biggest exporter. July shipments exceeded those of the same month last year by nearly 17%, surpassing the previous monthly record from October 2024, when 270,300 tons of beef were shipped, the data showed.
Aug 06 - Philippines to suspend rice imports for 60 days from September
The Philippines, among the world's largest buyers of rice, will suspend rice imports for 60 days from September 1 to protect local farmers impacted by falling prices during the harvest season, the government said on Wednesday. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr ordered the suspension, Communications Secretary Dave Gomez told reporters, adding tariff increases on imported rice had been ruled out for now.
Aug 06 - DM Q2 profit falls to 5-year low amid trade turmoil
Archer-Daniels-Midland posted its lowest second-quarter profit in five years on Tuesday as U.S. trade upheaval and uncertainty around biofuel policies slowed sales and crimped trading and crop processing margins. The company warned that full-year 2025 adjusted earnings would drop to around $4.00 per share, the lowest since 2020, after a weak first half with ongoing global trade challenges.
Aug 06 - Brazil, Japan beef talks focus on smaller Brazilian states, upsetting industry
Ongoing talks to open the Japanese market to Brazilian beef are focusing on supplies from three small Brazilian exporting states, upsetting other parts of the South American country's industry that are eager to reach the high-paying customers, according to multiple sources. A deal would give Japan an alternative to its top suppliers, the United States and Australia, at a time when U.S. tariffs are reshaping global food trade.
Aug 05 - Ukraine eyes higher 2025 grain harvest, plans more winter wheat for 2026
The 2025 harvest of Ukraine's key commodities, wheat and corn, may be higher than expected if weather conditions are favourable, while stable export demand will encourage farmers to expand winter wheat sowings for the 2026 crop, a senior official said on Monday. Taras Vysotskiy, deputy economy minister, told Reuters in an interview that the 2025 wheat output forecast may be raised to 22 million tons from the current 21.2 million tons and to 28 million tons from 26.5 million tons for corn.
Aug 05 - Consultancies forecast rise in Brazil's soybean output
Agribusiness consultancies on Monday released their first forecasts for Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production, expecting an increase in output amid geopolitical uncertainties. Celeres Consultoria sees the soybean crop at 177.2 million metric tons, up 2.5% from the 172.8 million tons in the previous season, while soybean exports are forecast at 110 million tons, up from the previous season's 106 million tons.
Aug 05 - Russian wheat export prices edge down in latest week
Russian wheat export prices fell last week, tracking a decline in global prices on expectations that markets will be well supplied this year as harvesting in major producing countries advance. The price for new crop Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board delivery in the second half of August was $236 per metric ton at the end of last week, down $3 from the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of IKAR consultancy.
Aug 04 - Old trees and ageing farmers worsen outlook for top palm oil exporters
After decades of soaring output, the market is now at a tipping point as combined exports from the two producers are set to slow sharply, the result of stagnating production and efforts by Indonesia to divert more palm oil into the production of biodiesel. While financial markets have factored in the slowdown, there is growing evidence that plantations run by smallholders may be in worse condition than previously thought as ageing and lower-yielding trees are not replaced, which will add to the decline.
Aug 04 - Trump's America First biodiesel policy could cost US companies, consumers, trade groups warn
The Trump administration's push to discourage the use of foreign feedstocks in domestic biodiesel could lead to higher energy prices for U.S. consumers and restricted domestic production, according to some refining and biofuel trade groups. The warning reflects ongoing friction between President Donald Trump's Environmental Protection Agency and the administration's traditional allies in the energy and agriculture industries over biofuels policy.
Aug 04 - China buys more Argentine soymeal as feedmakers seize on cheaper prices, sources say
A Chinese buyer has signed a deal this week to import 30,000 metric tons of Argentine soymeal, as feed producers move to lock in cheaper supplies from South America, two trade sources told Reuters on Friday. The cargo, priced at $345 per metric ton, including freight, is scheduled for shipment between September and October, the sources said.
Aug 02 - Fishmeal and Fishoil Comments + Prices: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISH PRICES
Fishing in the South of Peru is quite slow with the total landed now up to 24,000 m/t – leaving 227,000 m/t on the quota. The final catch numbers for the North/Central region look to be at 2.48 million m/t with estimated fishmeal production at just under 590,000 m/t.
A number of ports in Peru were close this week due to the concern over the serious earthquake in Russia and the possible Tsunami waves. There were no serious waves and all ports were reopened after less than a day.
Trade reports say that fishmeal sales remain steady at 550,000 m/t --- so there will be a little bit still to sell --- but not much. There is also a little fishmeal coming from the South region ever week – but only limited quantities.
There are some reports of pre-sales of fishmeal being booked for the next fishing season that will begin in October/November ---- prices are reported to be significantly higher than recent prices.
Peru’s final export numbers for January/June 2025 are at 761,500 m/t with 627,000 m/t going to China --- 82.3% of export sales. Ecuador, Germany, Japan and Denmark are each in with about 3.0 to 4.0% of exports --- total of 13.5% of exports.
Aug 01 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)
Sold in a week
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, leaf
· Soybean NE-GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Aug
· Soya NE-GMO FCA Chop, Ukraine, sickle-heather
- Ukraine
· As of 31.07.25, 15.4 million tons of grain and oil were threshed in Ukraine, which is significantly less than the last year's figure of 25.3 million tons. In particular: wheat - 11.4 million tons (2024: 19.4 million tons), barley - 3.5 million tons (4.8 million tons), rape - 1.8 million tons (3.2 million tons).
· Exports of agricultural products in July amounted to only 2.9 million tons, almost twice less than in July 2024 (4.9 million tons). The most sieved volumes of shipment of wheat - 858 thousand tons against 1.5 million tons, barley - 324 thousand tons against 634 thousand tons, corn - 550 thousand tons against 1.4 million tons, rape - 136 thousand tons against 411 thousand tons.
- CORN
The rapid decline in corn exports in July, against the background of rising prices for the 2024 harvest, signals a possible overestimation of the gross harvest of the previous season or underestimation of domestic consumption. At the same time, agricultural producers are actively developing livestock - as a response to the risks of 2022 and to diversify their business.
The price of corn of the old crop increased by another $ 5 - up to $ 245 with delivery to the port within 14 days.
Prices for the new crop continued to decline, falling to 202-205$ DAP port (November-December).
On the western border, purchasing activity is weakening: prices fell to 183-185€ FCA on December-March. Rains in the EU wheat region increase the risks of forage grain by pressuring the corn market as feed supply increases.
- WHEAT
Wheat prices continued to decline in the direction of ports: 224-228$ for food and 216-218$ for feed quality. In July, Ukraine exported only 858 thousand tons of wheat, which is significantly less than last year's figure - 1.5 million tons.
Delays in shipments form a delayed supply in foreign markets in September, which increases future competition for logistics and sales markets, especially in the feed segment.
On the western border of Italy is ready to buy wheat with 11% of protein at 187€, and forage - 184€ FCA, loaded into a euro train.
- SUNFLOWER
The price of sunflower of the new crop rose by 10-20$ with VAT, depending on the quality, location and delivery time. The strong demand for sunflower oil allows processors to sell processed products and buy sunflower.
- RAPESEED
Traders already take into account 10% export duty when forming the purchase price in UAH. This dramatically reduces competition and puts pressure on domestic prices. The export rate of rapeseed in July is the lowest for the last three years. The combination of reduced harvest, customs duties and delays of the harvesting campaign is a complete set of negative factors that are pressing on the market.
At the same time, prices in ports remain stable - 530-540$ CPT with delivery in August, depending on quality.
- SOYA
Soya remains the leader in terms of export rates among the main crops: in July, 377 thousand tons were exported from Ukraine, against 220 thousand tons in 2024 and only 70 thousand tons in 2023. The active offer is related to the intention of farmers to sell the goods before the introduction of export duties from September. Soya NE-GMO in the direction of the port was traded 428-430$, depending on the protein. On the western border, Italian buyers paid 375-380€ FCA, loaded into the European train for the August-September delivery.
However, the potential for price growth is limited: Italy expects a soybean harvest greater than previous forecasts, which restrains demand and stabilizes indicators.
Ukraine's 2025 grain harvest is likely to fall to 51-52 million metric tons from about 55 million tons in 2024, mostly owing to poor weather, the deputy head of Ukraine's largest farm union said on Thursday. UAC's Denys Marchuk said the harvest could include 21 million tons of wheat against 22 million tons harvested in 2024.
Aug 01 - USDA June soybean crush seen at 196.6 million bushels, analysts say
The June U.S. soybean crush likely dropped from a month earlier to 5.899 million short tons, or 196.6 million bushels, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Friday. If the average of seven analyst estimates is realized, the soybean crush would be down 3.5% from the 203.7 million bushels processed in May and the smallest monthly crush since February. But it would be up 7.2% from the June 2024 crush of 183.5 million bushels and the largest June crush on record, according to USDA data.
Aug 01 - Turkey provisionally buys 225,000 T feed barley in tender
Barley kernels are displayed with farmer miniatures in this illustration picture taken June 20, 2023. Turkey's state grain board TMO has provisionally bought an estimated 225,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Thursday, European traders said. The barley was sought for shipment between August 8-29 in a series of consignments to different ports. Supplies already imported to Turkey and stored in customs-bonded warehouses could also be offered, traders said.
Aug 01 - Brazil sees 35.9% of exports to US facing steeper tariff, pushes reversal for coffee
Brazil estimates that 35.9% of its exports to the U.S. by value will be hit by a steep 50% tariff under a new executive order by Donald Trump's administration, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said on Thursday, emphasizing efforts to reverse the levies on key goods such as coffee. The estimate confirms earlier reporting by Reuters, with sources saying 44.6% of local products will be subject to the preexisting 10% tariff, while the remaining 19.5% will fall under tariffs the U.S. applies globally, ranging from 25% to 50%.
Egypt and Ukraine have agreed to take specific steps to boost trade in key farm commodities including grain and sunflower oil as Kyiv seeks to deepen ties with its largest trading partner in the Middle East and North Africa, the Ukrainian embassy said. An embassy statement on Wednesday did not elaborate on the steps or provide a timeline.
Jul 31 - South Korea’s NOFI buys estimated 195,000 tons of corn, traders say
Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) bought an estimated 195,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender seeking up to 207,000 tons on Wednesday, European traders said. The corn was purchased in three consignments of 65,000 tons each and can be sourced from worldwide origins.
Jul 31 - Taiwan’s MFIG buys about 65,000 T corn from United States
Taiwan's MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said. The yellow corn was purchased at an estimated premium of 186.60 U.S. cents a bushel cost and freight (c&f) included over the Chicago December 2025 corn contract CZ25, they said.
SovEkon analytical center raised its forecast of Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 0.4 million tons to 43.3 million tons. According to SovEkon estimates in 2024/25, 40.8 million tons of wheat were shipped from Russia. After a sluggish start, the center expects a seasonal acceleration in exports soon.
The forecast for wheat exports has been adjusted following the increase in the harvest estimate to 83.6 million tons from 83.0 million tons. The revision is associated with improved harvest prospects in the central regions of Russia.
The new export season in Russia started poorly. SovEkon estimates that wheat exports in July will amount to 2.1m tons, compared to 3.9m tons a year earlier and 3.1m tons on average over the five-year period. Subsequently, shipment rates may increase to 4-5 million tons per month or higher as new crops become available on the market.
Lower domestic wheat prices could also support exports. Average prices of 12.5% protein wheat in European Russia fell to 14,175 RUB/t ($182/t) by the end of July, from 14,500 RUB/t ($185/t) at the beginning of the month and 14,975 RUB/t ($190/t) in June.
The ruble exchange rate will be an important factor for exports. The Russian currency, contrary to expectations, has remained resilient in recent months. However, on July 30, the dollar exchange rate on Forex rose to 81.84 rubles — for the first time since the beginning of May. The weakening of the ruble took place against the backdrop of the key rate cut by 2 p.p. to 18% and a new Trump ultimatum to the Kremlin.
In the external market, we can see renewed active competition from Romania and Bulgaria. Ukraine, whose supply to the EU is limited in the new season, will also be actively competing. During the season, more will be sold France, the wheat harvest in which has increased markedly compared to the failed last year's figure.
The US Ministry of Agriculture estimates exports of Russian wheat in 2025/26 at 46.0 million tons.
After an anomalously sluggish start, we expect Russian exports to accelerate, putting pressure on global prices.
Australia's gains in wheat-farm productivity have exceeded those in the United States, Canada and Europe, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data, and continue to rise while those of other developed markets slow or reverse. The ability of Australia's farmers to produce more wheat for a growing global population owes largely to a cluster of innovations since the 1980s that changed the seeds farmers plant, how they plant them, and how they cultivate the soil, many growers and researchers say.
Jul 30 - EU 2025/26 soft wheat exports down 64% by July 27
European Union soft wheat exports since the start of the 2025/26 season in July had reached 803,256 metric tons by July 27, compared to 508,766 tons the previous week, and down 64% on a year earlier, European Commission data showed on Tuesday. However, the Commission said grain export data for France, traditionally the bloc's largest grain exporter, was not complete since the beginning of the calendar year 2024, while it added that export data for Bulgaria and Ireland were not complete since the beginning of marketing year 2024/25.
Jul 30 - South Korea’s FLC buys about 132,000 metric tons corn, traders say
South Korea's Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased about 132,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional worldwide origins in an international tender on Tuesday, European traders said. This was above the 69,000 tons originally sought in the tender for November arrival in South Korea, with two consignments purchased.
Throughout last week, demand on the Ukrainian export market for rapeseed was mostly present at foreign currency prices of $535-545 per ton CPT-port.
Hryvnia-denominated bid prices for the oilseed, in anticipation of the introduction of an export duty, dropped to 23.000-24.200 UAH per ton CPT-port and mostly remained indicative. Market participants noted that farmers were reluctant to sell rapeseed under foreign currency contracts, which restrained trading activity in the market.
In the domestic market, prices declined by 200-500 UAH per ton. However, due to low rapeseed supply from farmers, some companies began to raise their purchase prices toward the end of the week. Processor bid prices were voiced in the range of 23.500-24.500 UAH per ton CPT. Companies reported weak raw material inflows, which is why processing is expected to start later than usual.
In anticipation of a bumper harvest of oilseeds this year, the Russian government has temporarily lifted floating export duties on sunflower oil and meal until August 31, 2025. The decision is aimed at boosting exports and supporting sunflower producers and processors ahead of the autumn field work.
The government has said that the lifting of duties will not affect the availability of sunflower oil for Russians, as the domestic market is reportedly fully supplied with the product. However, experts warn that increased exports could lead to a reduction in stocks and a potential increase in prices, especially if the harvest is not as good and demand in foreign markets exceeds expectations.
Floating duties on sunflower oil and meal have been in place since 2021 and 2022, respectively, to curb rising prices domestically. For example, in June 2025, the duty on oil was 7,119.8 rubles per ton (approximately $89.7 at an exchange rate of 79.41 rubles per dollar), and in July it was 4,739.3 rubles per ton ($59.7). The duty on meal was 1,244.1 rubles per ton ($15.7) in June and 1,054.4 rubles per ton ($13.3) in July. After the abolition of duties, the rates were zeroed, which may provoke an increase in exports.
We remind you that Russia also zeroed the export duty on wheat from July 9, 2025 for the first time since the introduction of the grain damper in 2021. This decision, caused by the crisis in the agricultural sector, the fall in world grain prices, and the loss of traditional sales markets, should support the competitiveness of Russian wheat.
The condition of the U.S. corn crop worsened slightly over the past week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Monday, though the decline was not expected to significantly diminish the harvest. The USDA also said in a weekly report that the condition of the nation's soybeans improved, surprising analysts who expected the crop's rating to slip.
Jul 29 - Argentina to resume soy exports once tax cut official, chamber says
Argentina's grains sector is set to resume its exports of soybeans and their byproducts once the government formalizes a tax cut it announced over the weekend, the country's CIARA-CEC grains processing trade association said on Monday. Exports in the world's top supplier of soy-based oil and meal came to a standstill on July 1 when a temporary tax reduction came to an end, CIARA-CEC President Gustavo Idigoras told Reuters.
President Donald Trump said the U.S. will sell "so much" beef to Australia after Canberra relaxed import restrictions on Thursday, but economists and traders said high prices and tight supplies make major American exports unlikely. Australia said it would loosen biosecurity rules for U.S. beef. The move will not significantly increase U.S. shipments, though, because Australia is a major beef producer and exporter whose prices are much lower, analysts said.
Jul 28 - French soft wheat harvest 86% over, grain maize ratings dip
Harvesting of soft wheat in France stayed well ahead of average by the end of last week in the European Union's largest producer, while the condition of maize crops deteriorates, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday. The data suggested that recent hot and dry weather was helping to shape this year's cereal harvest by accelerating the ripening of wheat and barley, while straining maize, which is in the midst of its growing season.
Jul 28 - South Korean mills buy 85,200 T wheat from the U.S., traders say
South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 85,200 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States on Friday, European traders said. It was believed to have been bought by two groups. One group bought 50,000 tons in an international tender for shipment between August 15 and September 15 while another group also bought 35,200 tons for shipment between September 20 and October 20.
Jul 28 - Argentina lowers export taxes on meat and grain, Milei says
Argentine President Javier Milei announced on Saturday a reduction in export taxes on poultry and beef, soybeans and derivatives, corn, sorghum and sunflowers, a measure requested by the southern country's agricultural sector. Milei stated that the announced reductions will be permanent and "result in a 20% reduction in export taxes for grain supply chains; and a 26% reduction in export taxes for livestock and meat."
So, how did prices do this week? USA corn prices slipped lower by about USD 4 m/t while soybeans dropped by USD 7 m/t and soymeal was about USD 6 m/t lower. US winter wheat was down by about USD 4 m/t with spring wheat down by the same.
The story about US grains and oilseeds is big crops pushing prices lower. Everything looks a little bearish for now as world crops all seem to be quite good --- except perhaps Russian wheat. According to trade reports one bearish factor for US corn is the supply of sorghum and its low price. Sorghum that isn’t going to China is now moving into the ethanol industry at attractive prices. The sorghum folks have as much as 3 million m/t to move which will keep the pressure on corn in some areas of the US.
Looking at grain/oilseed markets this week there doesn’t seem to be much reason for prices to move higher --- prices may just sit at the current level for a while. USA/Canada weather is good for the crops with about the right amount of rainfall being seen in many areas.
The EU released a 257 page list of items that could be covered by reciprocal tariffs if no agreement can be made with the US --- corn, sorghum, DDGS and corn gluten feed are all on the tariff list. I haven’t checked the list for wheat, soybeans and soymeal. President Trump is in Scotland this weekend and will be meeting with EU negotiators so perhaps we will see a new USA/EU agreement reached.
Sold in a week
· wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, sickle
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, yellow-leaf
· corn FCA Chop, Ukraine, December-Jan-Feb-Berez
· Soybean NE-GMO DAP Odessa, Ukraine, Jul
- Ukraine
· As of 24.07, only 10.3 million tons were threshed against 19.2 million tons last year, including: wheat - 7.1 million tons (14.7 million tons), barley - 2.8 million tons (3.9 million tons), rapeseed - 1.1 million tons (3.1 million tons).
· Ukraine exported in the 2024/25 season (July - June): wheat - 15.1 million tons; barley - 2.3 million tons; corn - 21.3 million tons; soybeans - 3.9 million tons; rapeseed - 3.1 million tons; soybean oil - 472 thousand tons; sunflower oil - 4.7 million tons; meal - 3.5 million tons.
- CORN
The price of corn of the old crop remains stable against the background of limited supply and still available demand from traders with delivery in the next 10 days. Traders are ready to consider offers up to 238-240$ with delivery within 5-10 days.
At the same time, the price of corn of the new crop, having reached a new high in the beginning of the week at 210-212$, was adjusted to 206-208$ on delivery terms to the port (November-December). The offer for October is absent because of the expectation of late start of harvesting.
There is a weakening of demand from European buyers on the Western border. Prices dropped to €186-188 FCA loaded in the euro train between December and March. Strengthening the euro against the dollar and improving weather prospects in Europe are deterring buyers from further activity.
- WHEAT
Wheat prices remained supported early in the week and reached new highs: 230$ for forage and 235$ for food. Delay in harvesting and lack of supply of feed grains reduced the discount between species to 5$.
Traders who tried to close their short positions with shipment in July, joined the so-called "trend" traders who decided to form long positions in the growing market. Such demand in the conditions of limited supply brought the price of the CPT port to a level close to FOB.
However, this movement could not last long: already on Wednesday and Thursday a significant part of the positions of "trend" traders began to go to FOB, thereby satisfying the main demand from buyers who had real ships before shipment.
As a result, prices were adjusted by almost $ 5-7 and decreased to $ 224 for forage and $ 230 for food wheat with delivery to the port in August.
Western Ukraine is in the phase of active wheat harvesting, which is likely to dilute a significant part of the supply of food wheat with feed grain.
- SUNFLOWER
Sunflower of the old crop is traded at the level of 26'000-26'400 UAH with VAT, with delivery to the plant.
Prices for sunflower new crop remain without significant changes - at 570-580$ with VAT, depending on the quality, location and delivery time. The refiners were optimistic that the crop areas under sunflower should be revised upwards according to the updated data of the State Statistics Service.
- RAPESEED
Due to the introduction of export duties on rapeseed, domestic prices in UAH decreased as exporters began to lay the value of the customs duty in the purchase price. At the same time, the export price remains stable - at 530-550$ on CPT conditions, with delivery to the port in August.
- SOYA
Soybeans of the old crop with GMO are traded at 388-390$, while non-GMO soybeans have a premium against GMO and traded at 430$ on CPT terms, with delivery to the port.
Scouts on an annual North Dakota crop tour on Thursday projected hard red spring wheat yields in the top-producing state will average 49.0 bushels per acre, down from 54.5 bpa last year, a record according to data going back to 1992. The figure was well below the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast for the state of 59 bpa, which matches the government's 2024 estimate, but higher than the Wheat Quality Council tour's five-year average of 44.6 bpa.
Jul 25 - USDA incorrectly reports sale of US corn to China
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday incorrectly reported a sale of U.S. corn to China when the buyer was actually South Korea, the agency said. The USDA initially said in a daily reporting system that exporters sold 135,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to China for delivery in the marketing year that starts on September 1.
Australia will ease restrictions on beef imports from the United States, the country's agriculture ministry said, potentially smoothing trade talks with U.S. President Donald Trump, who had attacked its rules. Still, the decision, which U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins called a win for Trump, is unlikely to significantly boost U.S. shipments because beef prices are much lower in Australia, analysts said.
Jul 24 - Northern North Dakota wheat yields to fall from last year, crop scouts say
Yields for U.S. spring wheat crops in northern North Dakota are likely to fall from last year's record per-acre output but remain above the five-year average, the Wheat Quality Council said on an annual tour on Wednesday. Beneficial rains across much of the biggest spring wheat producing state in the U.S. this summer are supporting yields, although drought in the far northern and far western areas of the state damaged potential output, along with excessive precipitation and crop-flattening winds in other spots, crop scouts said on day two of the group's annual three-day crop tour.
Jul 24 - Chinese buyers ink second bulk soymeal deal with Argentina, sources say
A Chinese buyer has signed a deal this week to import 30,000 metric tons of Argentine soymeal, as animal feed producers ramp up purchases to take advantage of softer prices in the South American market, three trade sources told Reuters. This marks the second such deal since Beijing approved Argentine soymeal imports in 2019, following the initial purchase by Chinese buyers in June.
This year's soft wheat crop in France, the European Union's biggest producer, is expected to rise to 33.40 million metric tons, up 30% from a rain-hit harvest last year, Argus Media said on Tuesday. That would still be well below the average 2017-2023 level of 34.96 million tons, it said in a statement.
Jul 23 - Japan vows more US rice imports within tariff-free quota
Japan will import more rice from the United States but within the existing tariff-free quota, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Wednesday, stressing Tokyo's success in protecting the agricultural sector in agreeing a bilateral trade deal. Under a World Trade Organization "minimum access" framework introduced in 1995, Japan imports about 770,000 metric tons of rice tariff-free every year.
Jul 23 - EU 2025/26 soft wheat exports down 71% by July 20
European Union soft wheat exports since the start of the 2025/26 season on July 1 reached 508,766 metric tons by July 20, compared to 245,718 tons the previous week, though were down 71% on a year earlier, European Commission data showed on Tuesday. A breakdown of this season's volumes showed Romania was the largest EU soft wheat exporter with 296,855 tons exported by July 20, followed by Germany with 87,000 tons, Poland with 54,476 tons and Bulgaria with 34,675 tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture rated 74% of the U.S. corn crop in good-to-excellent condition as of Sunday, the highest rating for this time of year since 2016 and unchanged from the previous week. The USDA rated 68% of the soybean crop in good-excellent condition, down from 70% the previous week and below the average analyst estimate.
Jul 22 - Russia's new-crop grain hits market as top producers report first harvest data
The first grain from Russia's new crop has arrived on the market, traders and analysts said on Monday, as top producing regions reported early harvesting results, with an expected drop in the Rostov region and a good harvest in Stavropol. Russia's export volumes fell to their lowest level since 2008 at the start of July due to a late start of the harvesting campaign, and some European traders told Reuters that slow sales of new crop wheat were disrupting the ship loadings at Russia's Black Sea ports.
Jul 22 - US sanctions could cause chaos on Latam farms run on Russian fertilizers
Latin American farmers are in for a rough ride if the U.S. slaps secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian exports, such as the fertilizers essential for cash crops from Mexican avocados to Brazilian soybeans and corn. For farm powerhouse Brazil, which covered about a third of its fertilizer demand with $3.7 billion of imports from Russia last year, there is virtually no alternative to fill the gap if those flows are halted, experts and industry players said.
Jul 22 - Russia may export 53-55 mln tons of grain in 2025-2026 season, Interfax cites minister
Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said Russian grain exports may reach 53-55 million metric tons in 2025-2026 season, the Interfax news agency reported. She added that the ministry maintained the forecast for the grain crop at not less than 135 million tons, including 88-90 million tons of wheat in 2025.
French farmers made more swift progress in harvesting wheat last week while maize field conditions deteriorated further, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday. The data suggested that recent hot and dry weather was continuing to shape this year's cereal harvest in France, the European Union's biggest producer, by accelerating the ripening of wheat and barley while straining maize that is in the midst of its growing season.
Jul 21 - Larger German wheat, rapeseed crop expected, farm body says
Germany's 2025 wheat crop will increase 16.5% on the year to 21.56 million metric tons, the country's association of farm cooperatives said in its latest harvest estimate on Friday. It forecast Germany's harvest of winter rapeseed, used for vegetable oil and biodiesel production, will rise 7.1% on the year to 3.88 million tons.
Jul 21 - France faces another tough wheat export year despite better crop
France could struggle to sell a much bigger wheat crop expected this year as export options for the European Union's top wheat producer have narrowed due to less demand from Algeria and China as well as strong competition from cheaper Black Sea grain. Sparse overseas demand could lead France to stock hefty amounts of wheat or offload more crop in livestock feed markets. Either outcome could keep prices below production costs, a trend that has fuelled farmer protests in the past year.
Jul 21 - China's June soybean imports from Brazil climb 9% from the prior year
China's soybean imports from Brazil in June climbed by 9.2% from a year earlier, customs data showed on Sunday, driven by a strong harvest and the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade war, while supplies from the United States rose 21%. The world's biggest soybean buyer imported 10.62 million metric tons of the oilseed from Brazil last month, or 86.6% of the total imports, compared with 9.72 million tons a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.
Fishing has dropped off considerably in the North/Central region with last week only reaching about 20,000 m/t landed. There is now 614,000 m/t left on the region’s quota with about 2.385 million m/t landed. Trade comment these days are that the total catch will end up at about 2.5 million m/t and there is quite a bit of talk that IMARPE may end the fishing early.
The estimates of fishmeal sales to date are still at about 535,000 m/t but could be higher. If the quota finishes at 2.5 mm/t there will be almost nothing left to sell.
There are also comments that this season’s catch yielded a lower level of super prime and prime grades than had been expected. Hopes are that this is only a one season situation and that there will be more higher grades next season.
Sold in a week
· wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, sickle
· corn FCA Chop, Ukraine, sheet-Dec-Jan-Feb
· corn DAP Odessa, Ukraine, leaf
· sunflower 48% DAP Odessa, Ukraine, October
· sunflower oil DAP center., Ukraine, sickle
- Ukraine
· As of 17.07, only 7.2 million tons were threshed against 13.8 million tons of the minuscule year, including: wheat - 4.7 million tons (10.3 million tons), barley - 2.1 million tons (3.1 million tons), rapeseed - 0.6 million tons (1.8 million tons).
· The President of Ukraine united a number of ministries. The new Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture will have priorities: European integration, investments, business support, eco-reform.
- Europe
· Polish processors call for lifting of the ban on imports of Ukrainian rapeseed due to the shortage of raw materials.
- CORN
Prices in the ports of Ukraine for corn of the old crop increased to $ 230 due to a shortage in the foreign market. Italian buyers are willing to pay 272-275$ CIF east coast of Italy.
The new corn crop was active this week - the prices in the ports grew by 7$ and traded at 210$ DAP Black Sea ports (Nov-Dec).
Sales for October are limited - manufacturers predict late harvest crops and fear precipitation during harvesting, which may complicate contract execution in October. Prices for November have a premium potential relative to December. Port prices of the new crop remain underestimated at 5-10$.
On the western border, prices are low: importers are getting more offers from European manufacturers amid improved weather and the expected strengthening of the euro to 1.2 USD.
- WHEAT
Wheat prices remain maintained due to the delay in the harvest. The current presence of grain on the market is half the same as last year, which creates the effect of a delayed supply - the main volumes are expected in August-September.
The price of food wheat reached 230$, which is 10$ higher than last week. The difference between the protein of 11.5% and 12.5% is almost absent, the discount for forage is reduced due to a limited offer.
In the central, northern and southern regions, up to 80% of food wheat is harvested. Expected rains in the west could increase the proportion of feed grain in this part of the country.
- BARLEY
Prices of barley went down at the end of the week, but remain 7$ higher than a week ago. After traders closed the main shortfall for loading ships, demand decreases and supply increases.
- SUNFLOWER
Processors switch attention to a new crop. Prices for sunflower of the new crop were traded at 560-580$, including VAT - depending on the quality, location and delivery time.
- RAPE AND SOYA
This week, the market was in complete uncertainty about the vote for amendments to introduce 10% of the customs duties on the export of rapeseed and soybeans. Until the last one it was not clear from what date the fee will come into force.
Traders and businesses have tried to delay the introduction to be able to meet forward commitments, while the processors' lobby and fiscal service have insisted on immediate launch to fill the budget.
As a result, the changes are accepted, the fee will come into force from 01.09.
This forces export-oriented traders to speed up shipments by the end of August.
The fee can trigger a surge in rapeseed exports in August, but the delay in harvesting plays in favor of processors.
Part of traders focused on hryvnia purchases were under the pressure of technical restrictions and will have difficulties in fulfilling export obligations.
Canadian farmers are likely to produce average-size wheat and canola crops this autumn, but years of drought have made rain critical for the plants to fulfill their potential, farmers and analysts said this week at the Ag in Motion farm show. Canada's spring wheat crop is vital to millers around the globe, and U.S. grocery shelf staples such as Cheerios cereal and Quaker oatmeal rely on Canadian oats.
Jul 18 - Russia targets Southeast Asian markets for grain exports
Russia is targeting large markets in Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Bangladesh for grain exports in the new marketing season that began on July 1, Ilya Ilyushin, head of state export agency Agroexport, said on Thursday. Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, is seeking to diversify agricultural exports beyond traditional buyers such as Egypt and Turkey, which bans imports periodically to support domestic producers. Last season Russia boosted wheat supplies to Vietnam fourfold.
On July 16, the Verkhovna Rada adopted draft law No. 13157, which provides for the introduction of a 10% duty on the export of rapeseed and soybeans from August 1, 2025. The draft law received the support of 245 deputies. The document also includes an amendment to create a fund to support agricultural producers to mitigate the impact of the duty.
Who is exempt from duty:
Agricultural producers who independently export their own products;
Agricultural cooperatives that export the products of their members.
This creates unequal conditions between producers and traders: if a farmer sells for export directly, no duty is charged, but under hryvnia contracts, traders reduce prices by approximately 10% , including the duty in the purchase price.
How is the market reacting:
Prices in hryvnia decreased:
Rapeseed — up to 23,900–24,500 UAH/t ;
Soybean (GMO) — up to 18,000–18,200 UAH/t .
In currency, prices remained unchanged:
Rapeseed — $535–540/t ;
Soybean — $383–388/t .
Analysts believe that the tariff will not stop exports, but will only transfer them into currency contracts. The main negative will be for small farmers who cannot export independently.
International reaction:
Rapeseed futures in Paris , after rising 2.3% before the vote, fell 1% to €471.75/t (≈$548/t) .
November and February contracts are more expensive by €8–13/t, signaling an expected price increase in the second half of the season.
In Canada, improving weather is helping planting — November canola futures fell 2.2% to CAD 676/t (≈$493/t) .
For Ukrainian farmers, there are traditionally two most profitable periods for selling rapeseed : at the start of the season and in September-October. It is during these months that there is active demand from the EU, as European processors are actively building up stocks before the start of the canola harvest in Canada and Australia. These time windows provide an opportunity to sell rapeseed at relatively high prices before large volumes of North American and Australian products enter the market, which traditionally increases competition and puts pressure on quotes.
Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday forecast that stocks of the main French wheat crop will swell to a 21-year high in 2025/26 as a rebound in production outweighs an expected doubling in exports outside the EU. France, the European Union's biggest grain producer, is in the midst of its wheat harvest, with output widely seen bouncing back from its lowest since the 1980s last year.
Jul 17 - Chicago corn and soybeans sink to effective 19-year lows: Braun
Chicago corn futures hit contract lows yet again this week and soybeans have been flirting with single-digit prices as ample U.S. harvests are on the docket. December corn still hovers just above last year’s levels and November soybeans are at five-year lows for the date.
Jul 17 - Australia nears breakthrough canola deal with China, sources say
Canberra is close to an agreement with Beijing that would allow Australian suppliers to ship five trial canola cargoes to China, sources familiar with the matter said, a move towards ending a years-long freeze in the trade. China, the world's largest canola importer, sources nearly all of its imports from Canada but those supplies could be limited by an anti-dumping probe Beijing is conducting.
The increase in palm oil prices in Malaysia from $910–915 to $990–995/t per month slowed its exports and increased demand for sunflower oil. In the first half of July, palm oil exports decreased by 5–6%, which contributed to the increase in sunflower oil purchases.
In June, India increased its imports of edible oils by 30% compared to May, including palm (+61%, to 953 thousand tons) and sunflower (+18%, to 216 thousand tons). In July, palm purchases are expected to decline and sunflower imports to increase further.
Prices for sunflower oil delivered to India remain stable at $1,195–1,200/t (CIF Mumbai), while in Ukraine at $1,100–1,110/t (delivered to Black Sea ports). Demand remains active.
Purchase prices for sunflower seeds in Ukraine have not changed in a week: 26,500–26,800 UAH/t or 555–565 $/t excluding VAT (with delivery to the factory). Processors are actively purchasing raw materials, fearing a low harvest due to drought in the south.
Demand prices for sunflower meal increased to $220–225/t (delivered to port), following the increase in prices for feed wheat and barley ( $208–210/t ).
According to APK-Inform, in June, sunflower processing in Ukraine decreased by 11% to 1 million tons. In total, for September-June 2024/25 MY, the processing volume amounted to 10.5–10.6 million tons — 21% less than last year, and one of the lowest figures in recent years.
In July, thanks to active oil exports, processing is expected to increase to 1.1–1.2 million tons. The total figure for the season is likely to not exceed 12.5 million tons.
Brazilian meatpackers are weighing whether to make new shipments of beef products to the United States after President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazil last week, Roberto Perosa, president of Brazilian beef lobby ABIEC, said. The United States is Brazil's second most important beef products market after China, according to trade data.
Jul 16 - NOPA June US soybean crush tops expectations at 185.709 million bushels
The U.S. soybean crush topped an average of trade expectations in June and reached the highest ever level for the sixth month of the year, while soyoil stocks dropped to a five-month low, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Tuesday. NOPA members, which account for at least 95% of soybeans crushed in the United States, processed 185.709 million bushels of the oilseed last month, down 3.7% from the 192.829 million bushels crushed in May but up 5.8% from a crush of 175.599 million bushels in June 2024, the previous record for the month.
Jul 16 - Algeria buys about 1 million T wheat in tender, traders say
Algerian state grains agency OAIC has bought about 1 million metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed on Tuesday, European traders said. Several estimates of the purchase late on Tuesday evening were around 1.05 to 1.08 million tons, with volumes bought in Algerian tenders generally difficult to precisely assess.
Turkish President Erdogan signed a decree introducing a quota for duty-free imports of 500,000 tons of corn from July 14 to 31, 2025. At the same time, the duty on imports of corn outside the quota remains high at 130%. Turkish importers can also import corn duty-free for further processing for export.
Turkey will start harvesting its own crop in August, which the USDA estimates will reach 7.8 million tons (compared to 7.1 million tons last year). Turkey's import needs are forecast at 2.8 million tons, significantly lower than last season's 4.7 million tons.
Spring quotas (1 million tons twice) have already caused a sharp increase in prices for Ukrainian corn , increased deliveries to Turkish customs warehouses, sometimes exceeding actual needs. Some cargoes did not have time to leave Ukrainian ports.
Corn prices in Ukraine
Export purchase prices for corn remain stable: $220–225/t or UAH 10,400–10,700/t , which is due to the formation of export batches against the background of limited remnants of the old harvest.
The increase in prices for feed barley and feed wheat (up to $205–210/t ) supports forward prices for corn, which already exceed $205/t .
Weather and external market impact
Dry and cool weather conditions in Ukraine and the EU in June–July support prices.
August futures on Euronext increased by 3% over the week to €206.5/t ($241/t), +10% over the month.
At the same time, November futures fell by 1.3% to €198.75/t ($232/t), due to recent rainfall in Europe.
Corn supply from Brazil remains high, putting pressure on global prices. And the expected drop in temperature and rain in Ukraine in the coming days are reducing speculative support for the domestic market.
July 15 - Russia's seaborne grain exports drop 25% in 2024/25 due to export quotas
Russia's seaborne grain exports fell by 25.4% in the recently ended 2024-2025 season to around 46 million metric tons, shipping data from industry sources released on Monday showed. Russia, the world's leading wheat exporter, delivered grain to global markets at record volumes early in the 2024/25 marketing season, which ran from July 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025.
July 15 - Russian wheat export prices rise on slow arrival of new crop, quality concerns
Russian wheat export prices rose last week amid the slow arrival of the new crop and low yields in the southern part of the country, while export shipments accelerated slightly, analysts said. The price for new crop Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in August was $229 per metric ton at the end of last week, up $4 from the previous week's prices, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.
Jul 14 - China soybean imports hit record June high on strong Brazil shipments
China's soybean imports hit the highest level ever for the month of June, a Reuters calculation of customs data showed, driven by a surge in shipments from top supplier Brazil. The world's largest soybean buyer brought in 12.26 million metric tons in June, up 10.35% from 11.11 million tons a year earlier.
Jul 14 - USDA cuts US corn stocks outlook after raising exports to record high
U.S. corn supply will shrink to its lowest in four years ahead of what is expected to be a record autumn harvest, as record-large exports whittle down stocks of grain, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its monthly supply-and-demand report on Friday. U.S. corn ending stocks for the 2024/25 old-crop marketing year were projected at 1.340 billion bushels, down from a forecast for 1.365 billion bushels a month ago and below the average analyst estimate for 1.353 billion bushels.
July 12 - Fishmeal and Fishoil Comments + Prices: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISH PRICES
- The catch in the North/Central region is now at 2.35 million m/t which leaves 650,000 m/t available on the quota --- trade reports are lowering the estimate of the total catch against the quota to 2.5 million m/t due to the lower catch and only 3 weeks left until the end of the quota.
- The South region saw a little catch against its new quota, a total of 2,400 m/t for the week.
- Total fishmeal sales recorded to date are reported by the trade at 530,000 m/t which means that all the sales are covered and producers are now long fishmeal.
- Spawning has started in the North/Central region which could mean an early end to the fishing if IMARPE decides it is needed in order not to interfere with the spawning.
- Trade reports are all suggesting that fishmeal prices will now begin to climb as supply will be limited until the next fishing season ---- it all depends on how the fishing goes for the next three weeks.
- Good news for fishmeal shippers ---- the International Maritime Organization has reclassified fishmeal as non-hazardous cargo which could/should bring freight rates and insurance down.
Jul 11 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)
Sold in a week
· wheat DAP Odessa, Ukraine, sickle
· corn FCA Chop, Ukraine, Sich-Feb
· sunflower oil DAP Odessa, Ukraine, sickle
- Ukraine
· In Ukraine, the pace of harvesting is lower than last year. As of 10.07 threshed: wheat - 1238 thousand tons (last year on a similar date - 5714 thousand tons), barley - 1153 thousand tons (2420 thousand tons), rape - 290.1 thousand tons (1115 thousand tons).
- Europe
· Import to the EU for 2024/25 MY:
- Soft wheat - 7.4 million tons (-19%). Share of Ukraine - 60.4% (last season - 71.2%), Canada - 16% (9%), United States - 5.7% (1.8%).
- Rape - 7.4 million tons (+31%). Australia - 47% (33%), Ukraine - 32.4% (55.6%), Canada - 15.2% (1.8%).
- Corn - 19.6 million tons (+4%). Ukraine - 55.6% (70.2%), USA - 19.9% (1%). Brazil - 8.3% (14.8%).
- Soya - 14.5 million tons (+10%). Brazil - 43.4% (45.2%), USA - 40.7% (as last year), Ukraine - 10.8% (7.4%).
- CORN
The activity of corn sellers of the new crop has increased, while buyers are restrained against the background of the expected glut of the world market next season. Only in the United States the harvest can exceed last year's by more than 30 million tons, which increases the global supply. Buyers in the direction of Europe have reduced their activity, having bought about 100 thousand tons of Ukrainian corn for the last week. Traders in the direction of seaports also do not show excessive activity, refraining from concluding new transactions due to uncertainty about the price trend and the high potential of the offer in the world market in the new season.
- WHEAT
Due to the significant delay in the harvesting of the new crop, the July positions of traders are burned, which supported the prices for the coming period. Most traders expect prices to fall after the harvest rate reaches 5 million tons, which can already happen in a few weeks.
- BARLEY
Barley prices have also been raised due to the global delay in early grain harvest. At the same time, the main export program of barley and the activity of traders are limited by the period until September, so after the market is saturated with the offer, a significant reduction in prices is possible.
- SUNFLOWER
The growth in prices for processed products is supported by sunflower, but the market remains sluggish. Liquidity is low, and demand is solitary. Most plants stopped buying sunflower harvest in 2024.
- RAPESEED
Uncertainty about the possible introduction of 10% export duty hovered over the rapeseed market. Traders are cautious about buying in hryvnia, so the port has the advantage on the side of the currency. Prices are kept within 535-545$ DAP-port. In case of approval of the fee, the prices in the ports will be asked - traders will lay it in the purchase. Recyclers will also reduce the price due to the greater availability of raw materials.
The pace of harvesting is extremely low - only about 290 thousand tons have been collected so far, whereas last year it was 1.1 million tons.
- SOYA
Soybeans are in the offseason - the old crop gradually loses relevance, and the demand for new ones remains low. Trading activity is weak, prices are stable due to the lack of market signals.
Jul 11 - Conab raises estimate of Brazil corn harvest to new record of 131.97 million tons
Brazil's total corn crop was estimated at 131.97 million tons, a new record after rising 2.9% compared with the previous month's forecast, a survey released on Thursday by the National Supply Company (Conab) shows. The crop will grow by 14.3% compared with the last cycle, due to better yields after the 2024 drought and an annual increase in planted area of 2.4%.
Jul 11 - Russia orders measures to boost agriculture exports after wheat sales fall in July
The Russian government on Thursday ordered measures to boost agriculture exports after international sales of wheat fell to their lowest since 2008, while traders are saying the new crop has been slow to come to the Black Sea terminals. The Sovecon consultancy estimates July wheat exports at 2.0 million-2.5 million tons, compared with 3.67 million tons in July last year.
Jul 10 - Stavropol boosts Russian wheat hopes despite Rostov drought
Two of Russia's top wheat-growing regions are having very different years as Rostov endures a second year of drought while good weather in Stavropol promises record output. That should keep supply from the world's largest exporter steady and could see Stavropol dethrone Rostov as its biggest wheat-growing region, according to forecasts.
Jul 10 - China wheat output dips 0.1% on drought damage
China's wheat output harvested in the early summer of 2025 dipped 0.1% from a year earlier, official data showed, as severe drought hit key growing regions like Henan province, the country's granary. The world's top wheat producer recorded a total output of 138.16 million metric tons, slightly down from 138.22 million tons in the previous year's harvest.
Jul 10 - Cereal exports at France's Rouen hub down 40% in 2024/25
Cereal shipments from Rouen port, France's main grain export hub, fell 40% in the 2024/25 season that ended on June 30, following a poor French harvest, the port's operator said on Wednesday. About 5.2 million metric tons of cereal were loaded at Rouen in 2024/25, compared with 8.7 million tons in 2023/24, led by shipments to Morocco and Portugal, the port operator Haropa Port said in a statement.
Jul 09 - Consultancy Sovecon raises Russian wheat export forecast for 2025/26 season
Agricultural consultancy Sovecon said on Tuesday it had raised its forecast for Russia's wheat exports for the 2025-2026 season by 2.1 million metric tons to 42.9 million tons, reflecting improved crop prospects and competitive prices. Exports in the previous season, which ended on June 30, are estimated at 40.8 million tons.
Jul 09 - West Africa facing 10% drop in cocoa output in 2025/26, industry sources say
West African cocoa production, which has faced two successive below-average harvests, is likely to see another 10% decline in the upcoming 2025/26 season despite marginally improved weather conditions, industry sources told Reuters. The forecast of a 10% fall in output across the four countries - a consensus view of five pod counters and six exporters - reverses an earlier projection of a 5% increase made in May and June.
Jul 09 - China's soymeal market remains elusive for Argentina despite first cargo
Argentina's grains hub town of San Lorenzo, on the banks of the Paraná River, is readying to send a key cargo to China: the first ever shipment of some 30,000 tons of soymeal from the world's largest exporter of the animal feed. The shipment, reported by Reuters on Monday, has stirred excitement in the sector. It would link for the first time the world's top supplier with the top consumer, which crushes almost all its own meal for its huge hog herd and imports very little.
Jul 09 - Brazil faces challenging corn export season as it harvests bumper crop
Brazil's corn exports are set to face new challenges this year as the shipping season starts with possible logistics issues, China making fewer purchases and strong competition expected from the United States, analysts told Reuters. Corn exports for 2024/25 are set to increase in volume, they said, but could face bottlenecks as they will have to compete for space in ports if China's demand for Brazil's record soybean crop remains firm in the second half of 2025.
Jul 08 - SovEkon raises forecast of Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season (SovEkon)
SovEkon raised its forecast for wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 2.1 million tons to 42.9 million tons. Wheat exports in the previous season are estimated at 40.8 million tons. The forecast for exports was raised against the background of a revised assessment of production and growth of the competitiveness of Russian wheat.
Improvements in Russian wheat yields have led to a revised export valuation. In June, SovEkon raised its estimate of wheat production by 2.0m tons to 83.0m tons, amid improved harvest prospects at the Center.
An additional factor was improved competitiveness of Russian wheat. At the beginning of July, Russian wheat of the new crop was trading at $225-228/t FOB against, while wheat from Bulgaria and Romania - at $230/t FOB. Exporters will probably be able to lower FOB prices if necessary, maintaining high margins.
At the same time, at the start of the season, active competition between Russia may be Romania and Bulgaria, where good harvests are expected. Ukraine, whose agricultural products will be limited in the EU, can also compete more actively.
In June, the US Ministry of Agriculture left the estimate of grain exports in 2025/26 in Russia unchanged at 45.0 million tons.
Active export of wheat from the Black Sea will put pressure on world prices. At the same time, pressure from Russia will be limited, given reduced supply.
Jul 08 - Weekly USDA corn ratings improve, soybeans hold steady
The U.S. Department of Agriculture rated 74% of the nation's corn crop in good to excellent condition, up 1 percentage point from last week and the highest for this time of year since 2018, a weekly USDA crop progress report showed on Monday. The agency rated 66% of the nation's soybean crop as good to excellent, unchanged from last week but down from 68% at this same time last year.
Jul 08 - Indonesia palm oil group says palm oil exports to US may fall due to tariffs
Indonesian palm oil exports to the United States may fall due to the 32% tariffs threatened on Indonesian goods, Hadi Sugeng, secretary general of the Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), told Reuters. Palm oil products are among Indonesia's top exports to the United States.
Jul 08 - Bunge charters first Argentine soy meal cargo to China
U.S. grains trading group Bunge has chartered 30,000 metric tons of Argentine soybean meal cargo destined for China, data seen by Reuters on Monday showed, marking the first such soymeal cargo since Beijing approved Argentine imports in 2019. The shipment is seen as a test case for China, which currently imports hardly any soybean meal. If successful, it could potentially nudge open what has been a largely closed market.
Jul 07 - French wheat and barley harvests speed ahead, maize rating drops
Harvesting of wheat and barley was running well ahead of the usual pace by Monday, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday, as hot weather sped up field work in the European Union's biggest grain producer. Farmers had harvested 11% of the soft wheat crop by June 30, up from 1% a week earlier and surpassing a five-year average of 4% for the same week, FranceAgriMer said in a cereal report.
Jul 07 - Australian chickpea, lentil exports kick in May
AUSTRALIA exported 13,674 tonnes of chickpeas and 49,707t of lentils in May, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
- The chickpea figure is up 22 percent from the 11,195t exported in April, while lentils posted a rise of 25pc from 39,719t.
Pakistan on 9420t was the major market for May-shipped chickpeas, with the United Arab Emirates on 1417t and Canada on 1171t the second and third-biggest respectively.
With an 11pc tariff now in place on Australian chickpea exports to India, that market has effectively stopped, although a 50pc tariff reduction is available for 150,000t per annum under the bilateral trade agreement.
- On lentils, Bangladesh on 27,938t, Sri Lanka on 14,896t, and India on 3515t were the three largest markets for May shipment.
According to Lachstock Consulting’s latest Australian Vessel Line-ups report, the last three months of the marketing year will see no bulk chickpeas exported.
On lentils, two Victorian cargoes loading early this month, one in Melbourne and the other in Portland, look to be the last for 2024-25 in the bulk program.
Jul 07 - China approves Ethiopian soymeal imports to diversify supply
China has approved the import of soybean meal from Ethiopia, a Chinese customs statement showed, as part of efforts to broaden its protein sources amid a trade war between Beijing and Washington. Effective July 3, Ethiopian soymeal that meets China's phytosanitary standards and is free of pests will be allowed into the country, the statement said.
Jul 07 - EU to cut Ukrainian wheat, sugar imports by 70-80% under new quotas
European Union will cut imports of Ukrainian wheat and sugar by up to 80% to address the concerns of its farmers, according to quotas announced on Friday, that are likely to drive Ukraine growers to sell more to markets in Asia and Africa. In a show of solidarity following the start of the Ukraine war in 2022, the EU opened up its food markets and temporarily waived duties and quotas.
Jul 05 - Fismeal and Fishoil Comments and Prices: Péruvian “INDICATION” Price.
- Fishing in the North/Central region is still low and there was no new season fishing in the South. The total catch is now up to 2.25 million m/t which leaves about 750,000 m/t on the North/Central quota. Estimated fishmeal production is now at 506,300 m/t for the season and 59,500 m/t of fish oil.
- One reason that the fishing was low this week was because all fishmen had holidays on Saturday through Monday --- for Fisherman’s Day. So, the landed numbers are lower and not comparative with a seven day week.
- Trade reports this week have been saying that the final catch for this season “might” go up to 2.5 million m/t --- fingers crossed.
- Prices are unchanged for fishmeal this week --- both in Peru for export and in China. However, trade reports suggest that prices will begin to move higher as it does not look like there will be much fishmeal available for sale.
- The latest published Peruvian export numbers for January/May 2025 show a total of 580,000 m/t of fishmeal exported with 89%, 457,000 m/t, going to China.
Jul 04 - Ukrainian Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)
Sold in a week
· rape NE-GMO ISCC CPT Odessa, Ukraine, lip-serp
· corn FCA Chop, Ukraine, Nov-Sich
- Ukraine
· In Ukraine as of 03.07 collected: wheat - 277.8 thousand tons, barley - 501.2 thousand tons, peas - 83.8 thousand tons, rape - 71.6 thousand tons.
· Results of Ukrainian exports for 2024/25 MY (Jul. 2024 - Jun. 2025):
- Wheat - 15.62 million tons (-15% y/y). The largest importers: Spain - 3.2 million tons, Egypt - 2.1 million tons, Algeria - 1.9 million tons.
- Barley - 2.26 million tons (-9% y/y). The largest importers: China - 0.7 million tons, Libya - 0.32 million tons, Spain - 0.25 million tons.
- Rape - 3.14 million tons (-15% y-o-y). The largest importers: Germany - 1 million tons, Belgium - 0.9 million tons, Great Britain - 0.33 million tons.
- CORN
Liquidity in the corn market is low due to uncertainty in exchange rates and sales markets. Negotiations on European quotas and the military situation significantly complicate procurement activity. In ports, the price of corn of the new crop ranges from 198-200 $/t DAP. At the same time, on the western border, European buyers are actively signing contracts for a new crop, trying to hedge their risks against the background of the expected decrease in the potential of the crop.
- WHEAT
The wheat market is in a tense state. Demand from buyers is growing, but supply is limited - farmers are in no hurry with sales, there are practically no physical volumes on the market. Due to the lack of coverage, buyers show increased activity. The harvesting campaign is just gaining momentum. Prices in wheat ports of 11.5% were at $210-212/t DAP, forage - $202-204/t DAP.
- BARLEY
Barley continues to grow in price. Demand from exporters and processors is strong, while farmers are holding back sales in anticipation of higher prices.
- SUNFLOWER
The sunflower market is currently experiencing a period of low liquidity, which leads to a decrease in trade activity. Prices remain stable, but most processing enterprises are on technical prevention, preparing for the processing of rapeseed. The demand for processing products is still insignificant, but there is an increased interest in forward contracts.
- RAPESEED
European rapeseed prices continue to decline amid weak demand for rapeseed oil and meal. Over the last period, they fell by more than 30 €/t. The main reason is the fall in world oil prices, which weakened the biodiesel market, closely related to the rapeseed segment. Reduced processing profitability limits the sales of oil and meal, reducing the demand for raw materials. The premium to the stock exchange for the Ukrainian rapeseed has deepened from -2 to -12-16 €/t.
- SOYA
The internal soybean market remains unchanged - trading activity at a low level, both among processors and among traders. The stability of prices is due to the lack of significant changes in demand, which does not stimulate active purchases or sales.
Jul 04 - REUTERS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Q3 OUTLOOK 2025 - WANG TAO
In the third quarter, Brent and U.S. crude may fall to $71.33 and $55.30 respectively. Palm oil, corn, soybeans, wheat and coffee are set to test key supports, while gold may revisit $3,120. Aluminium and cocoa may face resistance, with copper targeting $10,219. The dollar index could drop to 95. To read the full report, click here
Jul 04 - Argentina completes soybean harvest as cold spell boosts development of wheat
Argentina has completed its 2024/25 soybean harvest with a final output of 50.3 million metrics tons, up 100,000 tons from the previous season, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in its weekly crop report on Thursday. The harvest concluded a season marked by drought and a heat wave during the Southern Hemisphere summer, followed by autumn rains that helped yields recover, the exchange said.
Jul 04 - Ukraine to start wheat export in mid-July, farm union says
Ukraine will start exporting wheat from the 2025 harvest in mid-July and its export prices could rise by $20 to $30 per metric ton later this year, reflecting a global shortage of supply, a producers' union UAC said on Thursday. The Ukrainian farm ministry said last week that farmers from southern regions had already started the 2025 harvest, threshing the first 22,400 metric tons.
Jul 03 - SovEkon: Starting grain yield is lower than last year's
Harvesting of early cereals has begun in southern Russia, SovEkon reported in its weekly report. The initial yield in the largest agrarian regions of the south is lower than last year's values against the background of a moisture deficit.
In the Rostov region, the key wheat region of the country, the yield of early cereals is 2.0 t/ha compared to 3.6 t/ha a year ago, in the Krasnodar region - 4.5 t/ha compared to 6.2 t/ha. In Stavropol Krai, the yield is 4.0 t/ha, which is higher than last year's indicator of 3.5 t/ha.
The initial yield in Krasnodar and Rostov is noticeably lower than last year due to a moisture shortage. In Stavropol, by contrast, the moisture reserves are above normal.
Against the background of dry weather in 19 of 43 districts of the Rostov region was declared emergency mode. Similar measures were taken in 8 of the 34 districts of the Krasnodar Territory, mainly in the north of the region. The emergency regime is being introduced so that farmers can make insurance payments and compensate for losses.
Going forward, we expect some increase in yields as we shift to harvesting weaker fields.
SovEkon estimated the yield of wheat in the South at 31.5m tons, compared to 32.6m tons a year earlier. The decline in crop production in the southern regions due to adverse weather is already taken into account in the forecast.
SovEkon estimates Russia's wheat production in 2025 at 83.0 million tons, compared to 82.4 million tons a year earlier. This week, the Ministry of Agriculture confirmed its forecast of 135 million tons of cereals and 90 million tons of wheat.
Overall, the results are in line with our expectations, although they may lead some market participants to reconsider their expectations of a "very good Russian wheat crop."
Jul 03 - Bunge completes long-delayed mega-merger with grain handler Viterra
Global agribusiness Bunge Global said it officially closed a long-delayed deal to merge with Glencore-backed Viterra on Wednesday, two years after announcing the $34 billion mega-deal. The merger creates a global crop trading and processing giant that is poised to rival agribusiness giants Archer-Daniels-Midland and Cargill, at a time when slumping grain prices, weak crop-processing margins and geopolitical tensions have eroded profitability in the sector.
Jul 03 - Southern Ukraine winter grain yields hit by poor weather, scientists say
Dry weather in southern Ukraine during sowing and plant growth stages has significantly reduced winter wheat and barley yields, scientists at the Ukrainian National Academy of Agrarian Sciences said on Wednesday. Ukraine is a traditional grower of winter wheat and barley, but its harvest depends on favourable weather during sowing in autumn, a mild winter and sufficient moisture in spring.
Jul 03 - Tunisia tenders to buy about 25,000 T of feed corn, traders say
Tunisian state agency ONF has issued an international tender to purchase around 25,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, European traders said on Wednesday. The corn can be sourced from optional origins. The deadline for submission of price offers is Thursday, July 3, they said.
Jul 02 - Argentina's agricultural exports break record ahead of tax hike
Argentina's agricultural exports broke fresh records in June, data showed on Tuesday, as farmers in the key grains supplying nation ramped up shipments ahead of a tax hike that took effect on July 1. Argentina exported a record 64.5 million metric tons of grains and their derivatives in the first six months of this year, according to data from the Rosario grains exchange.
Jul 02 - StoneX raises forecasts for Brazil 2024/25 corn, soybean crops
Brazil's total corn output in the 2024-2025 season is expected to hit 136.1 million metric tons, consultancy StoneX said on Tuesday, raising its outlook from a previous forecast of 134 million tons. Within that estimate, StoneX also hiked its forecast for the second corn crop to 108.2 million metric tons, from 106.1 million tons in the last published forecast.
Jul 02 - Ukraine's farm exports fall 23.8% to 3.4 million metric tons in June, lobby says
Ukraine's agricultural exports fell by 23.8% to 3.4 million metric tons in June, mostly due to smaller shipments of grains and vegetable oils, farm lobby UCAB said on Tuesday. UCAB said in a statement that grain exports fell by 26% in June versus May to 2.2 million tons, while shipments of vegetable oils dropped by 32% to 356,500 tons.
Jul 01 - US corn conditions rated highest since 2018, USDA reports
The U.S. Department of Agriculture rated 73% of the nation's corn crop in good-to-excellent condition, up from 70% a week ago and above the average estimate from a Reuters poll of 11 analysts. The rating is the best since 2018 at this point in the growing season, according to USDA data.expectations.
Jul 01 - Japan says it won't sacrifice farm sector for tariff deal after Trump rice complaints
Japan will not sacrifice the agricultural sector as part of its tariff talks with the United States, its top negotiator said on Tuesday, after President Donald Trump complained that the key Asian ally was not buying American rice. Trump's comment, made in a social media post on Monday, comes as Tokyo scrambles to convince the U.S. to scrap a 25% tariff on Japanese cars and a 24% reciprocal tariff on other Japanese imports.