Körner, Getreide, Ölsaaten, Ols u. Mahlzeit

Jan 28 - SovEkon raises forecast of Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season; exports next season may fall

SovEkon raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 1.1 million tons to 45.7 million tons, compared to 40.8 million tons a year earlier and 42.2 million tons on average over five years. The outlook was revised on the back of strong exports in recent months, as well as relatively high official harvest figures.

Shipments of Russian wheat have increased significantly in recent months. In December, 4.2 million tons of wheat were shipped from Russia, which was the highest figure for the month in the last 8 years, in November - a record for the month of 5.2 million tons.

Shipments are also expected to be relatively strong in the coming months, against a background of strong demand from key importers. At the end of December, Egypt’s Mostakbal Misr agency purchased 0.7 million tons of wheat; Russian grain is likely to account for a significant part of the volume. Saudi agency GFSA in mid-January bought 907 thousand tons (maximum since February-2024), including grain from the Black Sea.

The relatively high availability of Russian wheat also contributed to higher export valuations. According to preliminary data published by Rosstat in December, wheat production in 2025 amounted to 91.4 million tons, while most market estimates fluctuated between 88.0-89.0 million tons. In December, SovEkon estimated wheat production in 2025 at 88.8 million tons.

The export quota of 20 million tons for basic grains will come into effect in mid-February, but we estimate that it will not have a noticeable impact on exports. Wheat exports during the quota period from mid-February to July are estimated at about 16 million tons.

The first forecast of wheat exports for 2026/27 is 39.6 million tons, which is 6.1 million lower than the estimate for the current season. Exports will decrease because of reduced supply amid relatively low yields. SovEkon estimates 2026 wheat production at 83.8m tons.

Domestic consumption in the next season will not change at the same time as the growth slowdown in animal husbandry to zero.

In the coming months, we expect a slight increase in the export rate. However, we are not expecting a fundamental increase in exports, given that a significant part of reserves is far from export regions. Strong ruble and stable export prices are also constraints.

Jan 28 - China buys more Canadian canola after Mark Carney visit
Chinese importers secured up to 10 Canadian canola cargoes following Prime Minister Mark Carney's visit to Beijing earlier this month, two trade sources told Reuters, easing supply tightness and potentially displacing Australian exports. Canadian canola is expected to be shipped between February and April, two traders with direct knowledge of the deals said. Each cargo is of around 65,000 metric tons. 

Jan 28 - Russia targets seeds market as traditional export customers boost grains production
Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, will target global markets with its seeds and technologies as its grain markets are expected to shrink with other countries raising production, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said on Tuesday. She said that Russia was already discussing with Egypt, its main wheat customer, how to use Russian seeds and technologies to increase production there and help it to strengthen the country's food security.

Jan 28 - Tunisia tenders to buy 100,000 tons soft wheat and 100,000 tons durum wheat, traders say
Tunisia's state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat and 100,000 tons of durum wheat, European traders said on Tuesday. The origin was optional. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Wednesday, January 28.

Jan 28 - Jordan gets 4 participants so far in 120,000 ton wheat tender, traders say
Four trading companies are believed to be taking part so far in the international tender on Tuesday from Jordan’s state grains buyer to purchase 120,000 metric tons of wheat, traders said in initial assessments. Trading houses participating so far were believed to be Cargill, CHS, Buildcom and Ameropa. 

Jan 26 - Bumper Argentine wheat harvest clouds EU export prospects
The European Union faces difficulty exporting its bigger wheat surplus this season as a record Argentine crop intensifies competition, including in top EU market Morocco, while farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, traders and analysts say. Argentina's bumper harvest is contributing to a surge in global supply, putting higher-cost suppliers in western Europe under pressure.

Jan 23 - EU-Mercosur deal likely to take effect provisionally from March, says EU diplomat
The EU's free trade deal with South American countries will probably be applied on a provisional basis as soon as March, an EU diplomat told Reuters on Thursday, despite a looming challenge at the bloc's top court. EU lawmakers dealt a blow to the contentious trade agreement with Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay on Wednesday by referring it to the European Court of Justice, potentially delaying it by two years.

Jan 23 - Brazil traders see January soy shipments missing exporters' outlook
Some Brazilian traders say soybean exports in January are likely to miss grain exporters' association Anec's forecast released on Tuesday, while Anec told Reuters it is reconsidering its estimate for 3.8 million metric tons of shipments this month. In a statement, Anec said its monthly estimate, far above the 1.1 million tons shipped in January 2025, was based on shipping schedules. 

Jan 23 - Jordan tenders to buy 120,000 metric tons of feed barley, traders say
Jordan's state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is January 28.

Jan 22 - Ukraine wheat exports remain low amid Russian attacks on ports, weak demand
Ukraine's wheat exports remained relatively low in the first half of January amid Russian attacks on Ukrainian seaports and low external demand, data from the country's grain traders union UGA showed on Wednesday. Ukraine is a major European producer and exporter of wheat.

Jan 22 - Russia wants to boost agriculture exports through processing ventures abroad
Russian companies should set up food-processing plants abroad with government support, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said on Wednesday, in a move aimed at revitalising the country's slowing agricultural exports. Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, but the growth of its grain exports slowed last year due to low global prices, which made growing wheat less profitable, and drought in the breadbasket Black Sea region.

Jan 22 - Taiwan’s MFIG buys about 65,000 tons corn from US, traders say
Taiwan's MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal-feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said. The yellow corn was purchased at an estimated premium of 190.97 U.S. cents a bushel cost and freight included over the July Chicago corn contract, they said.

Jan 22 - Jordan issues tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons wheat, traders say
Jordan's state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is January 27.

Jan 21 - Ice crust and deep frosts could damage some Ukrainian winter wheat and rapeseed crops
Ice crust and extremely cold weather over the past two weeks could damage winter wheat and winter rapeseed crops in Ukraine's southern and eastern areas as well as part of its central regions, farmers' union UAC said on Tuesday. Frosts in temperatures down to minus 18 degrees Celsius followed prolonged freezing rain, forming ice fields over crops.

Jan 21 - EU 2025/26 soft wheat exports at 11.8 million tons by January 15
European Union soft wheat exports since the start of the 2025/26 season in July had reached 11.83 million metric tons by January 15, down 2% from a year earlier, though some figures were incomplete, European Commission data showed on Tuesday. A breakdown of this season's volumes showed France was the largest EU soft wheat exporter with 3.84 million tons exported so far, followed by Romania (3.75 million tons), Lithuania (1.41 million tons), Germany (894,526 tons) and Latvia with (694,050 tons).

Jan 21 - EU 2025/26 soybean imports down 16% by January 15, rapeseed down 41%
European Union soybean imports for the 2025/26 season that began in July had reached 6.73 million metric tons by January 15, down 16% from a year earlier, though some figures were incomplete, European Commission data showed on Tuesday. EU rapeseed imports in the same period totalled 2.08 million tons, down 41% year on year. Meanwhile, soymeal imports fell by 11% to 9.86 million tons.

Jan 20 - Malaysian Palm Oil Board to roll out used cooking oil reference price to boost transparency, drive circularity (MPOB)

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), the statutory body overseeing the regulation, research and development of the country’s palm oil industry, will roll out an official used cooking oil (UCO) reference price in the first quarter of 2026. It says the move is aimed at improving market transparency, guiding fair trading, and strengthening the development of a circular palm oil economy.

UCO refers to oils and fats collected from restaurants, food processors and households after cooking or frying. It is a key feedstock for biofuels, particularly sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which is increasingly seen as critical to aviation decarbonisation.

UCO is increasingly important for downstream applications, particularly in biofuels and palm-based chemical products, and the benchmark is expected to provide clearer price signals while protecting smaller market participants from price manipulation and misinformation, Malaysia's Plantation and Commodities Minister Noraini Ahmad said.
“The initiative supports Malaysia’s push towards a circular economy, where waste and by-products are converted into valuable industrial and energy resources,” she was quoted as saying by New Straits Times.

MPOB director general Datuk Dr Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir added that the reference price is based on the local delivered price, reflecting UCO sold within Malaysia and including local transport costs, rather than export-based free on board (FOB) pricing.
“It (the reference price) is to make it more transparent, so that people have a reference whenever they would like to sell whatever UCO they have collected. This will help ensure that they get a good price and that the market is more regulated, so people are treated fairly and not cheated,” he was quoted as saying by The Edge Malaysia. “Basically, we want to make sure it becomes a healthy business, that people are more interested, and that more people are encouraged to collect and sell.

UCO collection in the country is carried out by licensed operators sourcing from restaurants, food processors and households, before being traded domestically or exported as a feedstock for biofuels and oleochemical production.

In Malaysia, UCO is traded via the US Dollar Used Cooking Oil FOB Straits (Platts) Futures (FUCO) contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, standardised at 25 metric tonnes per lot. In 2025, prices ranged from US$903.50/tonne to US$1095/tonne, with an average level of US$941.46/tonne.
Other key UCO benchmark prices used in Asia include S&P Global's Platts Asia Used Cooking Oil (UCO) Price Assessments, Argus Asian UCO price assessments and Vesper's benchmarks for China. As of December 17 last year, S&P Global assessed UCO prices at US$1,060/tonne for FOB Straits, US$977/tonne for DAP Tianjin and US$1,029/tonne for North Asia.

Last year, prices of used cooking oil in Asia hit a two-year high due to stronger demand in Chinese and European markets, S&P Global Commodity Insights reported. Platts data showed UCO North Asia reaching US$1,015 per metric tonne (FOB China) on Jan 23, its highest level since US$795 per metric tonne on Nov 14, 2023, while UCO FOB Straits rose to US$1,010 per metric tonne, up from US$790 per metric tonne on Nov 3, 2023.

Jan 20 - Domestic prices for Russian wheat have fallen to a one-and-a-half-year low (SovEkon)

As of January 14, the average price of grade 4 wheat in the European part of Russia fell to 13,050 rubles/t ($165/t) from 13,150 rubles/t ($168/t) last week and 13,250 rubles/t ($172/t) a month ago, follows from the price monitoring "SovEkon". This is the lowest price since July 2024, when the price of wheat was 12,900 rubles per ton ($146/t). Wheat prices declined amid high wheat supply in remote ports and relatively sluggish demand.

Wheat supply on the domestic market in general remains high, especially in the well-harvested Volga region and the Center. Wheat prices in the Center and the Volga region decreased by 400 rubles to 11,700 rubles/t and 11,500 rubles/t, respectively. Slow rail service overlaps with the high supply in the provinces.

Demand from exporters for wheat has fallen markedly since the end of last year. The current pace of shipments remains low. In the first two weeks of January, 0.7 million tons of wheat were shipped from Russian ports, compared to 0.8 million tons a year earlier and an average five-year level of 1.3 million tons.

Shipments of wheat from Russia’s main competitors also declined. According to preliminary data, about 0.3m tons of wheat were shipped from the EU in the first half of January, compared to 0.6m tons a year earlier. During the same period, Ukraine shipped 0.3 million tons against 0.4 million tons.

Probably, large importers continue to wait, still hoping for a decrease in prices against the background of an active offer of wheat from the Southern hemisphere. On January 19, the Algerian agency OAIC purchased 600-720 thousand tons of wheat at the price of $253-254/t C&F in the framework of an international tender. Much of the supply is expected to come to Argentina, where export prices remain at record lows in recent years of around $205-210/t, amid record harvests.

High domestic wheat stocks remain an additional factor, as they reduce purchase prices.

We do not rule out a further decline in prices on the domestic market in remote regions from the ports. But, owing to high logistics costs within Russia, this will not necessarily translate into lower export quotations.

Jan 20 - Chinese importer buys Canadian canola, denting Australian export hopes
A Chinese importer bought a cargo of Canadian canola shortly after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's visit to Beijing last week, trader sources said, boosting prospects for Canadian farmers and potentially undercutting sales by rival supplier Australia. The Panamax cargo of about 60,000 metric tons of Canadian canola is the first since China halted imports in October, and is expected to be shipped after March, two traders with direct knowledge of the deal told Reuters on Monday. 

Jan 20 - US lost soybean market share in China to South American supplies in 2025
U.S. soybean market share in China fell to 15% in 2025, down from 21% a year earlier, data from China's General Administration of Customs showed, as shipments halted since September and buyers turned to South American suppliers. Brazil's share of the market surged to 73.6% in 2025, up from 71% in 2024, while Argentina saw its share jump to 7%, from just 4% the previous year.

Jan 20 - Russian wheat export prices up on reduced supply, analysts cut January estimates
Russian wheat export prices rose last week on limited supply from the Black Sea region and increased demand from importers, analysts said as they lowered their estimates for January exports due to poor weather conditions at ports. The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board delivery in the second half of February was $227.50 a metric ton at the end of last week, up $2.50 from January 13, according to Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

Jan 19 - Palm oil prices to average lower in 2026 on higher supply, weak biofuel demand
Malaysian crude palm oil futures are expected to average slightly lower in 2026 than last year, with stronger supply from major producers and subdued biofuel demand putting downward pressure on prices, a Reuters poll showed. Benchmark palm oil prices will average 4,125 ringgit a metric ton this year, down 2.55% from 2025, according to the median estimate of 14 traders, analysts and industry participants.

Jan 19 - Greek rice growers fear Mercosur deal will price them out of business
Rice growers in northern Greece had braced for a tough 2026 season as competition from non-EU exporters heated up but many of them now worry that a controversial free trade deal between the European Union and South America's biggest Mercosur economies might put them out of business for good. Greece, Europe's third largest producer of paddy rice behind Italy and Spain, is exporting most of its 240,000-ton annual production, mainly to Europe and Turkey. 

Jan 19 - Russia's seaborne grain exports rose 4.4% in December
Russia's seaborne grain exports increased by 4.4% year on year to 4.7 million metric tons in December, according to shipping data from industry sources released on Friday. Seaborne exports accounted for about 90% of Russia's total grain exports last season.

Jan 16 - US farm economy shows widening cracks as costs rise, jobs vanish
Across the U.S. farm belt, these have become depressing times. Farmers are facing another season of low prices, high costs and difficult decisions about how — or whether — to keep operating. Banks are cutting off some growers just as they urgently need cash. Thousands of workers are losing jobs as meatpacking plants close and farm equipment makers scale back. Strain inside the U.S. farm economy is mushrooming across rural America, from unsold tractors sitting on dealer lots to agribusiness companies reporting shrinking earnings, as abundant grain supplies weigh on markets. 

Jan 16 - Brazil's crop agency confirms record soybean crop in new estimate
Brazilian crop agency Conab projected on Thursday record soybean output of 176.12 million metric tons in the 2025/26 marketing year, a 2.7% rise from the previous crop. The agency's updated estimate is, however, 1 million tons lower than a projection made in December, with Conab citing slightly lower soybean yields of 3,619 kg per hectare this year.

Jan 16 - Expana cuts EU soft wheat export forecast for 2025/26
Consultancy Expana has reduced its forecast for European Union soft wheat exports in the 2025/26 season to 28.8 million metric tons, down from 30 million tons projected last month, citing sluggish shipments from northern EU countries and Romania. The new estimate reflects weaker demand and slower shipments to third countries, with France remaining the only major exporter with an unchanged outlook.

Jan 16 - Turkey provisionally buys estimated 210,000 metric tons of feed barley in tender, traders say
Turkey's state grain board TMO has provisionally bought about 210,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Thursday, European traders said. The purchases were made in several consignments with the lowest price estimated at $259.50 a ton cost and freight included for 50,000 tons from trading house Ipek. 

Jan 15 - Global grain traders' green pledges face skepticism as deal to protect Brazil's rainforest unravels
Environmental groups are skeptical about whether grain traders that supply livestock feed to global meat markets will keep pledges to avoid buying crops grown on recently deforested lands in Brazil, after a two-decade corporate pact to protect the Amazon rainforest unraveled this month. Global grains traders abandoned the Amazon Soy Moratorium after local lawmakers in Brazil's largest agricultural state Mato Grosso threatened to strip tax incentives from those who honored commitments to avoid buying soy from farmers who razed rainforest acres to grow crops. 

Jan 15 - France AgriMer cuts non-EU wheat export forecast and raises EU shipments
Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday cut its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in 2025/26, to 7.50 million metric tons from 7.60 million expected last month, but still more than double the volume shipped in 2024/25. In a supply and demand outlook, the office increased its forecast of French soft wheat shipments within the EU in 2025/26 to 7.51 million tons from 7.39 million previously and 6.8 million tons last season.

Jan 15 - Jordan buys about 60,000 metric tons feed barley in tender, traders say
Jordan's state grain buyer has purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said. It was said to have been bought from trading house Cargill at an estimated $273.50 a ton cost and freight included for shipment in the first half of April.

Jan 14 - China's 2025 soybean imports hit record, fuelled by S. American purchases
China imported a record volume of soybeans in 2025, as buyers sharply increased purchases from South America amid fears of supply shortfalls if a trade war with Washington persisted. The world's biggest buyer of the oilseed imported 111.83 million metric tons in 2025, an increase of 6.5% from a year earlier, according to customs data released.

Jan 14 - China boosts wheat imports from Australia, Argentina on lower prices
Australia and Argentina exported around 620,000 metric tons of wheat to China in December, shipping data showed, and analysts and traders expect shipments to continue as Chinese buyers take advantage of low global prices. The December shipments to China were the biggest from Australia since April 2024 and the most from Argentina since 1997, customs data from the countries showed. 

Jan 14 - China's Sinograin sells out soybean auction ahead of US shipments
China's state stockpiler Sinograin sold all 1.1 million metric tons of soybeans offered at its fourth auction since December on Tuesday, traders said, as it moves to draw down inventories ahead of incoming U.S. shipments. The imported soybeans, from the 2022–2025 crops, were sold at an average price of 3,811 yuan per ton, with deliveries scheduled mainly for March and April, the sources said.

Jan 14 - Russia's IKAR lifts grain export forecast but warns of southern crop risk
Russia's IKAR consultancy raised the country’s grain export potential for the 2025/26 season to 60.2 million metric tons from 57.8 million tons, but warned the target may not be met due to a poor crop in the south. IKAR increased its wheat export forecast to 46.5 million tons from 44.1 million. The current grain marketing season ends on June 30, 2026.

Jan 13 - US corn stocks set December 1 record after huge harvest, USDA says
U.S. corn stocks held by farmers and grain companies as of December 1 ballooned to all-time highs, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Monday, after growers last year harvested a record-breaking crop that was bigger than previously expected. Larger-than-expected inventory and production numbers released by the agency signaled that farmers may remain under financial pressure after low crop prices and President Donald Trump's tariff wars strained the farm economy. 

Jan 13 - Malaysia to introduce official used cooking oil reference price in early 2026
Malaysia will introduce an official reference price for used cooking oil in the first quarter of this year to prevent price manipulation in the sector, its commodities minister said on Tuesday, as it seeks to better regulate the commodity. Plantation and Commodities Minister Noraini Ahmad told an industry conference that the new benchmark will provide price guidance and allow the fair trading of used cooking oil, as well as protect industry players from fraud.

Jan 13 - French farmers target food imports as Mercosur protests continue
Farmers stopped lorries at France's largest container port and on the main motorway north of Paris on Monday, conducting symbolic checks on imported food in protest at an EU-Mercosur trade deal they say will lead to unfair competition. Farmers in France, the European Union's largest agricultural producer, have been protesting for weeks over grievances including the proposed trade pact with South America’s Mercosur bloc. 

Jan 12 - India's 2025 rice exports surge to near record as curbs lifted
India's rice exports jumped 19.4% last year to the second-highest on record after New Delhi lifted all export curbs, making shipments more competitive, government and industry officials told Reuters on Saturday. An improved flow of rice from the world's largest exporter of the grain curbed shipments from rivals Thailand and Vietnam and drove prices in Asia to their lowest in nearly a decade, easing costs for poor consumers in Africa and other regions.

Jan 12 - USDA may trim US soy export outlook in key crop reports, analysts say
Grain analysts expect the U.S. Department of Agriculture may trim what some believe were overly optimistic estimates for soybean export demand in the current crop year, especially given lower sales to China, when it releases closely watched crop reports on Monday. They also expect lower estimates for U.S. corn and soybean harvests, in part reflecting dry autumn weather, although global supplies are expected to remain plentiful with large South American harvests imminent.

Jan 12 - China buys at least 10 cargoes of US soybeans for April-May shipment, traders say
China's state stockpiler Sinograin purchased at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Friday, or at least 600,000 metric tons, for shipment in April and May, capping an active week of buying by the world's top importer, three traders with knowledge of the deals said. At least eight of the cargoes booked on Friday were slated for shipment from U.S. Gulf Coast export terminals, with the remainder due to ship from the Pacific Northwest, they said.

Jan 12 - Grain terminal group Senalia expects doubling of shipments in 2025/26
Grain export terminal operator Senalia expects its volumes in 2025/26 to double from last season after a rebound in French harvest production and amid brisk demand for barley, the company said on Friday. France is the European Union's biggest grain supplier and Rouen on the river Seine in Normandy its main grain export hub. The rain-hit 2024 harvest cut its export surplus and left port terminals idle for part of the season.

Jan 09 - Macron says France will vote against Mercosur after farmers protest in Paris
France will vote against a sweeping trade deal that the European Union is due to sign with South American nations, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday, as farmers blockaded roads into Paris and landmarks like the Arc de Triomphe to protest against the pact. Farmers from the right-wing Coordination Rurale union called for the protests in Paris amid fears the planned free trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc will flood the EU with cheap food imports.

Jan 09 - Brazil 2025 eggs exports soar on strong US demand
Brazilian egg exports, including fresh and processed, hit a record 40,894 metric tons in 2025 on strong U.S. demand, according to data compiled by the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein on Thursday. The figure represents a 121.4% rise from 2024, when 18,469 tons were shipped. Brazilian egg exporters generated a record $97.2 million in revenue last year, 147.5% more than in 2024, the data also showed.

Jan 08 - US competition to dent Chinese demand for Brazil's soy in 2026, trade group says
Sales of U.S. soybeans to China will partly dent demand for the Brazilian product this year from the world's largest importer, Sergio Mendes, head of grain traders lobby Anec, said in an interview on Wednesday. In a video call, Mendes said Brazilian soybean traders are expected to ship 77 million metric tons of the oilseed to China in 2026, ten million tons less than in 2025. 

Jan 08 - EU to cut fertiliser duties to push through Mercosur trade deal
The European Commission said on Wednesday it would cut import duties for certain fertilisers and drive forward a law that could allow temporary suspensions to the EU's carbon border levy as it sought to win over opponents of its free trade agreement with South American bloc Mercosur. The concessions are part of an attempt by the Commission, backed by countries such as Germany and Spain, to garner the majority of 15 EU members representing 65% of the EU population to authorise the signing of the Mercosur deal, possibly next week. 

Jan 08 - South Korea’s MFG tenders for up to 210,000 tons corn, traders say
South Korea's Major Feedmill Group has issued an international tender to purchase up to 210,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, European traders said on Thursday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Friday, January 9. Traders had initially estimated the total sought at 140,000 tons.

Jan 08 - Jordan tenders to buy up to 120,000 metric tons feed barley, traders say
Jordan's state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is January 14.

Jan 07 - French Weekly Fertilizer market context (Agryco)

The majority of suppliers have now returned from leave, but they still need time to assess the situation accurately, both globally and in France. In the meantime, most of the suppliers are back on year-end bases.

The new element compared to last week is the return of geopolitics to the forefront, notably with the MACF tax and the US attack on Venezuela. Although Venezuela is a major regional producer, it is not so much this event itself that worries markets, but rather the uncertainty it generates. It reinforces the idea that Donald Trump could intervene suddenly on other countries, especially Iran, which he threatened again last week. In such a scenario, the impact could be significant, as was seen several months ago, when urea prices rose sharply following Israel’s attacks on Iran.

For the time being, the market is expected to remain broadly stable at the beginning of the year. The underlying trend remains firm and it will take some time before a clearer trend is established for the beginning of the year. Careful monitoring of urea trends will continue, including through the Indian tender and the level of demand in the United States and South America (Venezuela is a supplier, for example, from Brazil).

Regarding phosphorus, it will be necessary to observe whether the promising end of the year is confirmed, with the possible arrival of significant price reductions.

Nitrogen solution:
As indicated above, the market is in the observation phase at the beginning of the year. Offers are maintained at last week's levels, i.e. 358 €/t from Rouen for January and 360 €/t for February/March deliveries. No significant price changes are expected this week. The underlying market remains relatively firm, but does not appear to be able to absorb further increases at the moment, in particular due to still limited demand.

Ammonitrate:
There have been no notable developments. Prices remain stable at €493.5/t in the case of the big bag for ammonitrate 33.5 and at €381/t in the case of the big bag for ammonitrate 27.

Urea:
The global urea market had shown a downward trend at the end of the year, but the context seems to have strengthened recently. Without engaging a frankly upward dynamic, the decline now seems limited. Prices are therefore expected to remain broadly stable in the short term. Much will depend on the outcome of the Indian tender, as well as the level of demand in the US and South America, a revival of which could sustain the market and prevent any further decline. Conversely, a later request could suggest a correction. The price remains at 560 €/t bulk departure La Pallice.

Phosphorus:
The phosphorus market has started a downward trend that seems to be continuing. However, it is still necessary to wait in order to assess the real downside potential and to identify the first significant offers for spring uses.
The TSP 45 is currently displayed at 545 €/t departure Rouen, while the DAP is offered at 700 €/t departure Rouen.

Potash:
No changes to report in this market. Potash chloride remains stable at 360 €/t bulk departure Rouen.

Jan 07 - China buys more US soybeans, total purchases approach 10 million tons
China's state stockpiler Sinograin bought 10 U.S. soybean cargoes this week, three traders told Reuters on Tuesday, as the world's top buyer continues purchasing from the United States following a late October trade truce. The cargoes, totalling around 600,000 metric tons, are for shipment between March and May, the traders said, which is the peak shipping season for rival supplier Brazil.

Jan 07 - EU summons farm ministers to secure Mercosur deal support
The European Commission appeared to have won the crucial support of Italy on Tuesday for a contentious free trade deal with South American bloc Mercosur, paving the way for the EU to sign the agreement as early as next week. Italy and France last month dashed hopes for a December deal, saying they were not ready to support it until farmers' fears of an influx of cheap commodities from Mercosur, including beef and sugar, were resolved.

Jan 07 - EU 2025/26 soft wheat exports reach 11.18 million tons in incomplete tally
European Union soft wheat exports since the start of the 2025/26 season last July had reached 11.18 million metric tons as of January 2, down 2% from a year earlier, though some figures were incomplete, the European Commission said on Tuesday. EU barley exports totalled 5.29 million tons, up 126% from the corresponding period in the 2024/25 season, while EU maize imports were at 8.22 million tons as of December 31, down 20%.

Jan 07 - Jordan buys 60,000 tons of wheat in tender, traders say
Jordan's state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, traders said. It was believed to have been bought from trading house Buildcom at an estimated $260 a ton cost and freight included for shipment in the first half of April, they said. 

Jan 06 - Ukraine Weekly Commodity Market (SPIKE BROKERS)

- Ukraine
· As of 01.01, 57.9 million tons of grain and leguminous crops have been threshed. Oilseeds (including soybean) - 17.4 million tons.
· Harvesting of corn for the week amounted to 320 thousand tons, with a shaft of 27.8 million tons.
· In December, total agricultural exports amounted to 4.1 million tons, which is the lowest December figure for at least the last 10 years. Including: wheat - 619 thousand tons, barley - 158 thousand tons, corn - 2.2 million tons, soybeans - 202 thousand tons, rape - 121 thousand tons, soybean oil - 54 thousand tons, sunflower oil - 427 thousand tons, sunflower and soybean meal - 378 thousand tons.

- CORN
The harvesting campaign has slowed down considerably due to adverse weather conditions. The progress of harvesting corn for the week amounted to only 300 thousand tons, with the total gross harvest as of 01.01.26 - 27.8 million tons.
In December, corn exports amounted to 2.2 million tons, with the key areas being the Mediterranean region and the EU, which together formed more than 60% of total supplies. The largest volumes were directed to Turkey (722.9 thousand tons) and Italy (456.3 thousand tons), which confirms the dominance of Europe and the Mediterranean countries as the top markets. Asia provided a smaller but significant share of exports, in particular South Korea (101.6 thousand tons) and China (58.0 thousand tons).
Seaports gradually began to resume work under conditions of active shelling by the aggressor, adapting to the reduced electrical voltage and compensating for the shortage of electricity by installing diesel generators. The increase in the discharge rate on water led to a temporary shortage of goods in ports, as suppliers held back shipments towards ports during the holidays, as well as because of the uncertainty of ports after active missile attacks.
Spot corn price index with delivery of CPT-port (30 days) rose to $206, which is $2 above the closing level last week.
The western border market is in a phase of low business activity, which is associated with the holiday season and holiday season in Europe. The nominal prices remained at €180 FCA Chop with delivery in February-May.

- WHEAT
In December, wheat exports from Ukraine amounted to 619 thousand tons and was concentrated mainly in the countries of North Africa and the Middle East. The absolute dominant among the directions was Algeria, which imported 280.4 thousand tons. The second key region remained the Middle East, where the main recipients were Yemen (118.1 thousand tons) and Syria (69.0 thousand tons). Asia formed a limited demand, mainly due to Malaysia (8.8 thousand tons). Deliveries to Europe were minimal and did not have a significant impact on overall export structure.
The slowdown in the rate of export shipments of wheat increases the likelihood of accumulation of grain residues in Ukraine and increases the price pressure both at the end of the current season and at the beginning of the next season.
Spot price index of food wheat (11.5% protein) with delivery CPT-port decreased to $211, and feed wheat - to $205.

- SUNFLOWER AND ITS PROCESSING PRODUCTS
The market of sunflower and its processing products is in the phase of weak business activity. At the same time, stabilizing maritime logistics gives market participants confidence in the sale of processed products and, as a result, can stimulate more aggressive purchases of sunflower.
The rise in energy in Ukraine remains a key factor in the increase in the cost of sunflower processing, which this season will limit the purchase prices from processing plants.
The price of sunflower without VAT with delivery to the plants of central Ukraine is $550-560 in the equivalent, while the plants of Bulgaria are already buying sunflower at prices of $620-630 delivered, which looks attractive, taking into account the cost of logistics.
Spot sunflower price index with processing delivery within 30 days decreased by $4 with VAT - up to $642.

- SOYA
In December, soybean exports amounted to 202.6 thousand tons. Logistically, it was mainly focused on sea routes, which accumulated 61% of the volume (123.6 thousand tons). The bulk of the sea supplies were directed to Turkey, which remains a key market for Ukrainian soybean.
Rail transport formed 36% of exports (72.9 thousand tons) and provided the main flow of products to the European Union, including large processing centers in the Netherlands, Germany and France.
Road transport provided only 3% of exports (6.1 thousand tons) and was mainly used for short routes to neighboring EU countries.
Prices for soybeans have decreased in all directions. Marine exports showed a decrease of $3, the direction of processing - by $2.
Spot price index of GMO soybean with delivery of CPT port for export in the horizon of 30 days decreased to $422 without VAT.
Direction of processing: spot index of GMO soybean price for processing decreased to $457 with VAT.