Softs News

Mar 15 - Asia coffee: Premiums widen in Asian main robusta producers on thin supplies (Reuters)

- Premiums extended gains this week in Vietnam and Indonesia, two main robusta beans suppliers, traders said on Thursday, as supplies remained tight although demand slightly waned due to high prices. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam’s largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 90,400-92,000 dong ($3.66-$3.73) per kg, up from 89,000-91,000 dong a week earlier.
“Differentials remain high,” said a trader based in the coffee belt. “Supplies are exceptionally thin. Demands still exist but were slightly down due to the prices.” Robusta coffee for May delivery settled down $47 or 1%, at $3,260 per metric ton on Wednesday.

- Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a premium of $550-$600 per ton to the May contract.
“The 2024/25 crop is in the flowering stage. There are concerns over a lack of rainfall in the region this season although rains were forecast to return next week,” another trader based in the same region said.

- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at a $820 premium for the April contract, higher than last week’s $710 premium. “Base price for green beans is expensive now as there is no stock,” one trader said.


Mar 14 - African cocoa plants run out of beans as global chocolate crisis deepens
Major African cocoa plants in Ivory Coast and Ghana have stopped or cut processing because they cannot afford to buy beans, four trading sources said, meaning chocolate prices around the world are likely to soar. Chocolate-makers have already increased prices to consumers, after three years of poor cocoa harvests, with a fourth expected, in the two countries that produce nearly 60% of the world's cocoa.


Mar 13 - Cocoa mid-crop to have a slow start in Ivory Coast (IHSmarkit)

- Fifth consecutive week of higher weekly cocoa arrivals y/y
- Cocoa areas continue to receive above-average rainfall
- Ivory Coast to keep farmgate prices unchanged

Cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast’s ports reached 1.224 million metric tons from the start of the 2023-24 season in October last year to 10 March, down 28% from the same period a year ago, according to exporters. In terms of weekly arrivals, the amount registered for the period between 4 and 10 March was larger year-on-year for the fifth consecutive week. Around 12,000 metric tons of beans were delivered to Abidjan port and 15,000 metric tons to San Pedro, for a total of 27,000 metric tons, up 50% from 18,000 metric tons a year ago, but below the previous week’s 34,000 metric tons.

Rainfall continued above average in most of the country’s cocoa regions last week, which should improve cocoa growing conditions for the April-to-September mid-crop, local farmers reported to Reuters. This was the second consecutive week of satisfactory rainfall levels after high heat and dry weather in February. However, they added that the mid-crop will start slowly in April as there are not enough large, near-ripe pods on the trees. However, if the regular rains continue in March and April, a significant volume of beans would leave the bush from mid-May to late June.

The Ivorian cocoa bean price ended at €7,342 ($8,028) per metric ton CIF northern Europe last week, up 3% from a week ago.

Despite current record global prices, Ivory Coast is expected to keep farmgate prices unchanged for the mid-crop, sources at the country’s Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) told Reuters. This is attributed to the price levels at which the bulk of this season's beans were sold forward last year. In September, Ivory Coast raised the farmgate price to 1,000 Ivorian francs ($1.67) per kilogram for the mid-crop of 2023-24 from CFA900 during the previous season, and the country is expected to maintain this level.

The cocoa mid-crop is usually smaller and of lower quality than the main crop, accounting for around 30% of Ivory Coast's cocoa production. For the upcoming mid-crop, production is expected to be around 450,000-500,000 metric tons, compared with 555,000 metric tons last year, due to erratic weather earlier in the year, according to a CCC source.


Mar 11 - Robusta coffee prices jump to 16-year high (IHSmarkit)

Robusta coffee futures rose sharply last week as farmers from top producer, Vietnam, were reluctant to sell their beans in the hope of further price rises. Moreover, delays in shipments from Asia to Europe caused by attacks in the Red Sea have contributed to tight supplies.

In London, the most-active robusta contract for May delivery closed at $3,381 per metric ton on Thursday (7 March), after hitting the highest level since January 2008 at $3,431. This was up $72 from the previous session and $286 from a week ago.

In addition, local prices in Vietnam and Indonesia rose to record highs last week amid strong demand and low stocks.

The most-active May arabica coffee contract in New York settled at $1.922 per pound on Thursday, after hitting its 2024 peak at $1.9475/lb. This was up 3% on the day and 5% from the previous week, despite the ongoing increase in exchange-certified stocks.


Mar 11 - Indian coriander prices set to stabilize (IHSmarkit)

Indian spot coriander prices have risen although high inventories suggest there should be some stabilization in values.

The Indian coriander seed spot price averaged 7,972 rupees/quintal ($962/metric ton) at the Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 4 March 2024, 7% more month-on-month and 11% more year-on-year.

Indian exports closed 2023 with 109,560 metric tons, a record, valued at $117.4 million, up from 43,541 metric tons in 2023. The main importers of whole coriander in 2023 were China and Malaysia, accounting for 42% and 13%, respectively.

The updated daily futures market price on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) was:

    INR8,102/quintal for deliveries in May 2024 on 1 March, 1% more m/m
    INR8,102/quintal for deliveries in June 2024 on 1 March, stagnant m/m
    INR8,102/quintal for deliveries in July 2024 on 1 March, 1% less m/m.


Mar 07 - Asia Premiums rise in major robusta producers on higher demand, supply concerns (Reuters)

- Premiums climbed further in major Asian robusta beans producers, Vietnam and Indonesia, traders said on Thursday, as demand was high amid depleted stocks. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 89,000-91,000 dong ($3.60-$3.68) per kg, up from last week's 82,700-83,700 dong.
"Farmers and dealers said they have already run out of beans, while I managed to buy very few," a trader based in the coffee belt said.
"Domestic prices have reached the 90,000 per kg mark, while premium kept going up amid weaker dong and higher ICE prices."

- Robusta coffee LRCc2 for May delivery settled up $129 or 4%, at $3,309 per metric ton on Wednesday.

- Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a premium of $500-$550 per ton to the May contract, higher than last week's $400-$450 range. According to a Reuters poll released last week, Vietnam's 2024/25 coffee crop was estimated at 29.5 million 60-kg bags.

- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans for the April contract were offered at a $710 premium this week, down from $800 a week ago.
"The higher price was to adjust with the London terminal," a trader said.

- Another trader quoted a premium of $750 to the May contract, up from $700 last week.
"Coffee price increased because demand was higher while supply was limited," the second trader said.


Mar 04 - Guatemalan cardamom prices showing additional upward pressure (IHSmarkit)

- Harvesting of 2023-24 crop estimated to be 85% completed
- Larger than usual price differential between MYQs and bold green cardamoms
- Potential for demand to improve from April-June

Guatemalan cardamom prices have continued to increase over the last month or so due to the much smaller crop and regular demand. One recent trade report stated that harvesting of the 2023-24 crop was approaching its end, being more than 85% completed. This report claimed the crop was expected to be 50% lower than that of last season, which was worse than previously anticipated. However, other trade sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights that their expectations remained for a decline of about 40% from last season to a range of 30,000-32,000 metric tons. The 2022-23 crop was estimated at 50,000-55,000 metric tons.

Production declined due to drought, which some have attributed to the El Nino weather phenomenon. “Therefore we see that prices for cardamom in Guatemala have increased quite a lot recently, even exceeding the prices from India. Usually, the prices from Guatemala are lower than the Indian prices but now Guatemala is higher than India, especially for the green grades,” Berisa added. The price gap between the grinding grades and the green cardamom is quite large at about $15-18 per kilogram whereas the difference would usually be less than this.

Berisa explained that the mixed yellow qualities (MYQ) would normally be around $8-10/kg cheaper than the greens but now it is $15-18/kg cheaper. Hence, MYQ is ranging from $11.50-13.50/kg CIF while the bold greens are between $23-29/kg CIF.

S&P Global Commodity Insights prices data is in line with these indications. At the time of writing (4 March),
- bold green Guatemalan cardamom of approximately 8 mm size was listed at $28,000 per metric ton CIF Middle East
- and MYQ at $14,000/t CIF any destination.

Buyers hesitant

- Similarly, Berisa summed up demand as being “normal” and “nothing special”. “We see also people being a bit more careful and a bit hesitant sometimes, of course also because of the high prices and trying to buy in stages still in the hope that there might be some kind of price correction which so far didn’t really happen. Now we will enter the Ramadan month so then usually it is very quiet. Maybe there could be a price correction which some buyers hope to see but I don’t really expect. They hope that shortly after Ramadan they will be able to buy again at prices which maybe are a bit lower. I think prices will be stable for the time being and there is even a big chance that prices will jump again after Ramadan,” he said. This could mean increased demand from April-June, mainly from the Middle East.

- There are still some stocks in certain countries in the Middle East which need to be consumed.
“We could expect a further price rise after April,” Berisa suggested. “Then of course it depends on what is going to happen with the new crop, which is still far away of course. Most are convinced that also the next crop will be more or less the same as this year, or maybe even smaller. There are only a few that are contesting that and they expect a better crop because they think the plants would be able to recover if the weather conditions are normal again,” he added.

- The recent trade report that had suggested a 50% decline in production in 2023-24 also stated that it believes the next crop starting in October will be short again as the damage from the long summer period in 2023 will continue to affect output.
Cardamom seed prices have also increased : Berisa noted that the density of most of the cargoes from the 2023-24 crop are also very low, which is also affecting the availability of seeds and has prompted those prices to gain quite substantially, reaching a range of $18-20/kg CIF compared with $17-19/kg CIF previously . “It is expected they could increase by another 10 or 15% in the coming one or two months,” Berisa added.

On 4 March, S&P Global Commodity Insights listed Guatemalan cardamon seeds at $18,500/t CIF any destination. Large index Indian cardamom was indicated at $15,480/t FOB Chennai and small index Indian cardamom at $19,491.80/t FOB Chennai.


Mar 01 - ICCO sees rising global cocoa deficit in 2023/24 season
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) on Thursday forecast an increased global cocoa deficit in the current 2023/24 season as aged trees and disease contribute to a drop in production in top growers Ivory Coast and Ghana. In a quarterly update, the inter-governmental body predicted a global deficit of 374,000 metric tons in the 2023/24 season (October-September).


Mar 01 - ICE March raw sugar delivery seen at 1.3 mln tns, say traders
Deliveries of raw sugar on the expiry of the March contract on ICE exchange were seen at 25,751 lots, or around 1.3 million metric tons, according to preliminary information from two traders on Thursday. Asian commodities trader Wilmar International was said to be the largest deliverer of the sugar with 22,562 lots, or 1.14 million tons. French trader Sucden was said to be the main receiver with 17,692 lots, or around 900,000 tons, the traders said.

Feb 29 - Coffee Prices inch higher in Vietnam, Indonesia on thin supply, high demand (Reuters)
- Coffee prices edged up this week in major Asian robusta beans suppliers Vietnam and Indonesia, as demand remained high while supplies were exceptionally limited, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 82,700-83,700 dong ($3.36-$3.40) per kg, up from 81,600-82,500 dong range a week ago.
"Demand remains high but supply is very tight," said a trader based in the coffee belt. "It's very hard to buy. Farmers and dealers are strategic in releasing beans."

- Robusta coffee for May delivery settled down $33 or 1%, at $3,044 per metric ton as of Wednesday close.

- Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a premium range of $400-$450 per ton to the May contract, compared with the $300-$350 premium range last week.
"$400 is just the threshold to break even. Some even quoted as high as $500 premium," another trader based in the same region said, adding the weather was sunny and dry, and water was sufficient for the trees. Vietnam exported 398,000 metric tons of coffee in the first two months of 2024, up 16.2% from a year earlier, government data released on Thursday showed. Coffee export revenue in the same period rose 67.5% to $1.25 billion.

- Indonesian Sumatra robusta coffee beans for April deliveries were offered at $800 premium this week, up from last week's $720, one trader said.
Another trader quoted $700 premium to the May contract, up from $640 premium a week ago.
"Coffee price rose this week as the demand is higher than supply," the second trader said.

Feb 29 - Pistachio Update: February 2024 (IHSmarkit)

- Booming US pistachio exports
- Iran set to raise exports during the Ramadan campaign
- Bullish trend in the Spanish market

US pistachio exports are breaking all previous records. However, most of the US crop might have been committed due to Chinese, US and Indian purchases. As a result, Iran might be knocking at international market doors, with inventories of around 200,000 metric tons. Iran is focused on shipping to the Middle East to cover the demand during the Ramadan festival, with these markets appreciating highly its traditional varieties.

California

California’s crop is projected to increase by 41% y/y to 590,000 metric tons, although recent production updates have upgraded this estimate by 4-5%. The pistachio crop is expected to maintain a booming growth from 2023-31 after analyzing the current non-bearing acreage and the new plantings average, according to a survey conducted by the American Pistachio Growers Association (APG). January shipment data reveals sales are skyrocketing, flooding the global market and stabilizing prices, driven by Chinese, Turkish and EU imports.

US pistachio shipments reached 46,730 short tons (+47% y/y) in January 2024, with exports accounting for 88% (36,674 short tons, 73 more y/y). Seasonal shipments totaled 278,729 short tons, 68% more y/y. The main importers in January 2023 were China (10,060 short tons, +115% y/y), Germany (5,730 short tons, +112% y/y) and Turkey (2,290 short tons, up from 692 short tons in January 2023).

Prices averaged $3.95/lb FOB for 21/25, extra Number 1, in-shells in February in the week ending on 22 February, stagnant month-on-month and 9% more y/y, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Kernels were quoted at $7.8/lb FOB in the same period in 2024, stagnant m/m and 1% more y/y. Commercial inventories are estimated at 390,840 short tons, 14% less m/m and 24% more y/y.

Spain

Spain is a minor origin although most sources expect it to become the fourth largest world producer as its planted area has reached around 50,000 hectares, mostly coming into fruition over the next three-four years. Spain’s 2023 pistachio production has been projected at 7,550 metric tons, 51% more than the previous forecast and three times more y/y, as Castile-La Mancha (south center), the main origin, has reached a record crop of around 5,580 metric tons, according to a survey conducted by the consultancy Solagro and Castile-La Mancha authorities. They have analyzed the processing data from all the plants built in Spain. Extremadura (southwest) is the second largest origin, with a crop of around 1,000 metric tons.

The Albacete pistachio wholesale market (Castile-La Mancha, south center) released the following quotations in the week ending on 22 February 2024:

    Conventional kerman 18-19, €8.6 ($9.31) per kg, 2% more m/m and 9% more y/y
    Conventional kerman 20-22, €7.9/kg, stagnant m/m and 5% more y/y
    Conventional kerman 23-25, €7.6/kg, stagnant m/m and 4% more y/y
    Conventional kerman kernel, €15.75/kg, 3% more m/m and 24% more y/y
    Organic kerman, 18-19, €9.25, 3% more m/m and 9% more y/y
    Organic kerman 20-22, €8.55, 2% more m/m and 7% more y/y
    Organic kerman 23-25, €8.05/kg, 2% more m/m and 7% more y/y
    Organic kerman kernel, €16.5, 5% more m/m and 29% up y/y

Feb 29 - Vietnam starts 2024 with booming pepper exports and bullish prices (IHSmarkit)

- 30% y/y increase in Vietnamese exports
- Main importers of Brazilian pepper: Vietnam, the UAE and India
- Vietnamese and Brazilian prices match

Vietnam’s pepper industry started 2024 with record exports and bullish prices, having increased by 30% year-on-year in volume to 17,460 metric tons and by 63% y/y to $69.8 million in January 2024. The main importers were the US, India and Germany, accounting for 28%, 8% and 5%, respectively.

Vietnamese black pepper price averaged $4,900/metric ton CIF NW Europe for 500 g/l in the week ending on 22 February, 11% more month-on-month and 50% more y/y.

Brazil’s pepper exports reached 6,030 metric tons valued at $19.8 million, 5% less y/y in volume and 16% more in value. The main importers were Vietnam (1,337 metric tons, -26% y/y), the UAE (970 metric tons, two times more y/y) and India (649 metric tons, +73% y/y).

Brazilian black pepper grade 1 was quoted at $4,900/metric ton CIF in the week ending on 22 February 2024, 14% more m/m and 52% more y/y.

- Vietnam and Brazil, the largest global suppliers, are confirming the long-term bullish trend announced this January. A combination of rising sea shipping fees and inventories at lows in importing markets are fueling quotes after several seasons at lows.

Feb 29 - Coffee stocks rebound after falling to historic lows (IHSmarkit)

 

- ICE certified arabica stocks rise 65,504 on the week
- Some 148,747 bags of arabica coffee are pending grading
- Tenderable robusta coffee stocks still low despite recent increase

Stocks of ICE certified arabica beans have been rising since early February as market participants are constantly delivering fresh beans to the exchange for grading.
Stocks totaled 342,766 60 kg bags on 28 February, up 8,995 bags on the day and 65,504 from the previous week, exchange data show. This is the highest level since November, when figures hit a 25-year low in November last year.

Inventories in Europe stood at 337,961 bags, while in the US they were at 4,805 bags.

The share of Brazilian beans in warehouses has increased steadily in recent weeks and has now reached nearly 41%, up from 37% a week ago. Coffee beans from Peru also increased their participation which now stands at 8%, compared with 6% in the previous week.

There was a large increase in the amount of arabica coffee that is waiting for the evaluation of ICE exchange graders to be added to ICE's certified arabica stocks. Some 148,747 bags of coffee from seven different origins are pending grading, of which 116,928 bags come from top grower Brazil.

If a large part of the pending volume is approved, this could significantly increase the total certified stocks. However, approvals have been low. Around 9,280 bags passed grading on 28 February, while 11,520 bags failed.
Robusta stocks

Tenderable robusta stocks held in ICE Futures Europe nominated warehouses recovered to 2,453 10-metric ton lots (408,833 60 kg bags) as of 27 February, after falling to 1,958 lots (326,333 bags) as of 20 February, the lowest volume since data are available.

Inventories in London increased to 1,422 lots in the period under review from 882 in the previous week, while stocks in Antwerp fell by 41 lots to 814.
However, stock levels remain well below the 7,000 lots (1.17 million bags) held at the same time last year.

Feb 27 - EU orange prices are declining (IHSmarkit)- The EU average wholesale price was €85 ($92.2) per 100 kg in January- Egyptian December exports to the EU surge y/y- Red Sea disruption distorted the supply landscape
The EU average wholesale price of oranges has been trending down for the past three months and arrived at €85 ($92.2) per 100 kg in January, down 3% m/m and up 25% y/y, according to the European Commission. The 12-month peak of €91 was recorded in October 2023. The softening price was expected as more fruit are coming from Egypt.In December, Egypt exported 3,500 metric tons to the bloc, which was double the volume of a year ago. The main suppliers to the EU were Spain, Turkey, Egypt and Greece. In supplies, the landscape has evolved slightly since the Red Sea disruption started. The overall picture points to a distorted one.At Fruit Logistica, one Egyptian exporter told S&P Global Commodity Insights: “Initially, we were hoping to send more fruit Asia and the Middle East, but the situation has changed. Volumes to Asia may not be as much as originally planned. We may try to export more to Russia and Europe. Europe is easier as the route is shorter.”A second Egyptian source contacted by S&P Global Commodity Insights today (26 February) remarked: “Our current focus is Russia. It is a very important market for us. The fluctuation of our currency against US dollars is a huge challenge for us.” Some Egyptian exporters had to reduce the FOB price due to the Red Sea crisis and shared the extra shipping burden with the importers.For a reference point, in the week of February 23, the wholesale price of the late Navel variety was quoted at €1.29 per kilo at the Madrid wholesale market, flat from the previous week. The price was €0.93/kg a year ago. On a side note, S&P Market Intelligence (16 February) continues to expect a further devaluation of the pound in the short term (likely in two phases throughout calendar year 2024) to help reduce the gap with the black market rate.

Feb 26 - Hazelnut Update: February 2024 (IHSmarkit)

- Ferrero tender sparks activity in Turkish hazelnut market
- Other demand viewed as ‘sporadic’
- Speculation is rife with pollination under way

- The Turkish hazelnut market escalated sharply this month after Ferrero Group issued its latest tender. On 12 February, this largest end-user of Turkish hazelnuts issued a tender circulated to all market players asking them to submit prices by 6 pm that same day. The prices which were then submitted ranged from 8-20% higher than the market closed at on the preceding Friday (9 February).

- Ferrero subsequently moved in to take the price which was 8% higher than the 9 February closing price, stating that this was now its buying price for whoever wanted to commit. The market immediately moved up to that level. More specifically, on 9 February, local prices were averaging 225 Turkish lira ($7.23) per kg on kernels. When Ferrero opened the tender the prices offered to it ranged from TRY240-260/kg. Ferrero tried to settle at TRY240/kg when the market had been at $225/kg the previous week.

- On 19 February, Turkish hazelnut climbed higher again, rendering Ferrero’s earlier 8% upward movement as the minimum market level.
- On 23 February, Vittorio Friedmann of UK trader Voicevale observed that Turkish hazelnut prices have risen substantially after Ferrero’s effective removal of stocks from the market. Turkish 11-13 hazelnuts were now being offered at $9,000 per metric ton CPT Europe compared with $8,150/t CPT a week ago.

- The quantity purchased by Ferrero remains a mystery but the relatively sudden upward momentum in prices suggests that it must have been substantial. Demand outside the influence of Ferrero remains “very sporadic”, Friedmann explained. “Of course there are people who jump into the market when they see these movements, but the quantities are marginal,” he said. The large users are not following the trend, it is only the small to medium-scale companies that are inclined to be more nervous and therefore feel the need to take some coverage.

- This matched with an earlier assessment of Deniz Gurpinar of UK trader Ronly Limited, who on 8 February wrote: “The prevailing market silence persists, with customers showing reluctance to engage in transactions at current price levels. Many prefer to conduct hand-to-mouth business practices amid the prevailing high prices.” Ronly Limited represents the Turkish hazelnut processor Ronly Gida. Similarly, Greece-based nuts and dried fruit broker Cardassilaris Family said: “With prices on the rise, buyers are proceeding with caution, focusing on short-term needs which adds to the market’s tightness.”

- Moreover, in its 6 February market report US company Olam Nuts stated: “We continue to see most buyers preferring to cover only their immediate requirements due to high prices. Many buyers are still covering their Q1-Q2 demand, which has added fuel to the heated market for a while. Though the volumes are low, the sentiment is that Europe is uncovered and is making the farmers hold further.” Olam Nuts added that it expects demand fundamentals to be tight with inflation woes and other ingredient prices, such as cocoa, at an all-time high.

- Maria Flanagan of UK trader Freeworld Trading observed that a lot of the bigger buyers have been waiting for prices to decline but it has now reached a point where they need to purchase further quantities. “That created a bit more commotion this week, and pushed the prices a bit further up,” she told S&P Global Commodity Insights on 22 February. Turkish hazelnut exports for the current (2023-24) season to 16 February were estimated at 158,000 metric tons versus around 168,000 metric tons at the same time a year ago.

- Gurpinar of Ronly Limited added that the exchange rate is expected to remain stable until the end of March, with a potential devaluation post-election offering prospects for maintaining workable prices. Flanagan added: “A lot of people are hoping the prices will go down after the parliamentary elections at the end of March.”

Feb 23 - Ghana's 2023/24 cocoa output seen almost 40% below target, sources say
Ghana's cocoa output for the 2023/24 season is expected to be almost 40% below a target of 820,000 metric tons, two sources from the country's sector regulator COCOBOD told Reuters. Strong seasonal winds and a lack of rain are among the main factors behind the shortfall, along with smuggling, damage caused by illegal gold mining, and swollen shoot disease.

Feb 22 - Vietnam prices rise on high demand, low supplies (Reuters)- Vietnam coffee prices rose this week on higher exporter demand after the Lunar New Year, but some farmers are still holding on to beans in hope for higher prices, traders said on Thursday.
Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 81,600-82,500 dong ($3.32-$3.36) per kg, up from 78,900-79,200 dong last week."Demand is high as exporters need beans to fulfil their contracts but beans are too expensive and hard to buy," said a trader based in the coffee belt."The situation may persist until April when Indonesian farmers start to release beans."- Another trader said the weather was favourable at the moment for the trees.Vietnam exported 238,266 metric tons of coffee in January, up 67.4% from a year earlier and 14.8% from the previous month, customs data showed. Revenue reached $726.6 million, up 133.7% from January 2023.- Robusta coffee LRCc2 for May delivery settled up $31 or 1%, at $3,177 per metric ton as of Wednesday close.- Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a premium range of $300-$350 per ton to the May contract.- Premiums for Sumatran robusta beans in Indonesia's Lampung jumped from last week, traders said, as demand rose while farmers are still waiting for coffee cherry harvests. One trader offered $720 premium to the April contract, up from $550 on March contract last week. "This is because there is no more beans," the trader said.A small coffee harvest in Lampung province and the surrounding area in southern regions of Sumatra typically starts in March or April, and the main harvest usually starts around June.Another trader offered $640 premium to the May contract, up from $600 premium last week, noting that demand was strong this week.


Feb 19 - Increase in Spanish almond prices driven by California sales (IHSmarkit)

- Processors aiming to cut inventories from previous seasons
- 11% m/m increase in Comunas
- Flowering to take place between March-April

Spanish almond prices are in a bullish trend driven by Californian sales, the price difference being at a minimum, according to the Spanish trader Hispania Nuts in its latest market update. Hispania Nuts listed the following prices for the following Spanish varieties in January 2024:

    Comunas: €4/kg ($4.32/kg), 11% more month-on-month
    12/14: €4.10-4.15/kg, 8-9% more m/m
    S/14: €4.80/kg, 2% more m/m

The price increase has been higher in low-priced varieties.
Supply is lower than expected due to the disappointing 2023 crop, with processors aiming to cut inventories from previous seasons.

On the other hand, organic almonds were quoted at €5.80/kg, 3% less m/m. Organic almonds are following a price trend different to conventional products, being driven by stabilization or slight falls in several central European markets.

Flowering will take place from March-April and exporters will launch forecasts and, as a consequence, prices will move with Morocco and Algeria consuming Spanish almonds to cover the demand during the Ramadan festival.

Feb 17 - Walnut update February 2024 (IHSmarkit)

- 28% y/y increase in Californian shipments this January
- China closed 2023 with record exports
- Ukraine selling out inventories

- California’s walnut shipments are clearly higher than in the previous season and with the industry deserving admiration for the hard work developed.

S&P Global Commodity Insights received feedbacks from many companies taking part in the organic food fair Biofach (Nuremberg, Germany, 13-16 February) with positive insights from this season in California. Its industry has not only achieved a record crop but also an exceptional quality, fueling sales just when Chile has sold out all its production and is ready to commit the 2024 output for the Ramadan festival in the food fair Gulfood (Dubai, 19-23 February). California’s 2023 production estimate has been upgraded by around 20,000 short tons to 782,122 short tons by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, confirming an exceptional output due to the combination of a record crop and high-quality average. That might mean bearish prices with a bumper Chinese crop. However, the January shipment data confirms robust sales of Californian walnuts led by in-shells.

California

- California’s walnut shipments were 90,305 short tons (in-shell tonnage) in January 2024, 28% more year-on-year, bringing seasonal data to 324,614 short tons, 18% more y/y.
Californian in-shell walnut shipments rose by 88% y/y to 48.6 million lbs this January, bringing seasonal sales (September-January) to 208.6 million lbs, 30% more y/y. Meanwhile, kernel shipments totaled 57.6 million lbs, 20% more y/y, bringing seasonal sales to 259.3 million lbs, 21% more y/y.
In-shell exports totaled 47.9 million lbs, 87% more y/y in January. The main importers of in-shells in January were Turkey (22.4 million lbs, +71% y/y), Italy (5.5 million lbs, +109% y/y) and India (3.0 million in-shell lbs, +159% y/y), accounting for 47%, 11% and 6%, respectively.
Shelled exports totaled 57.6 million lbs, 20% more y/y. The main seasonal kernel importers were Germany (10.5 million lbs,+49%), the Netherlands (3.6 million lbs, +20%) and South Korea (3.45 million lbs, +38%).
Prices averaged £3,250 ($4,085) per metric ton EXW UK for in-shell Light Ambler halves in January 2024, 12% more month-on-month and 27% less y/y.

Chile
- Chilean prices have stabilized after starting a slight recovery for in-shells and are growing strongly for kernels, due to a shortage of the latter.
Chilean exports fell by 40% y/y to 8,730 metric tons (in-shell basis) this December, bringing seasonal sales (March-December) to 168,180 metric tons (-1% y/y). The main seasonal in-shell importers were India with 48,045 metric tons (+92% y/y) and Turkey with 22,900 metric tons (-20% y/y). Kernel exports reached 3,949 (+3% y/y), bringing seasonal international sales to 28,226 metric tons (-8% y/y). The main seasonal kernel purchasers were Spain with 4,738 metric tons (+20% y/y) and Italy with 4,000 metric tons (+13% y/y).
The Chilean industry has committed all the crop and will not have carry-over stocks this season. Growers and processors are waiting for February to start commercializing the new harvest in Gulfood (Dubai, 19-23 February 2024) with importers aiming to secure the supply during the Ramadan festival (10 March-9 April 2024).
Trading sources listed the following fob prices for Chilean walnuts in January:

    In-shell, Chandler 30-34 mm: $2.35-2.60/kg, stagnant month-on-month and 24-27% more y/y
    In-shell, Chandler 34-36 mm: $3.35-3.50/kg, stagnant m/m and 20-29 % more y/y
    In-shell, Chandler over 36 mm: $4.10-4.30/kg, stagnant m/m and 34-37% y/y
    Kernel, ELLHP40: $6.00-6.25/kg, stagnant m/m and 30% more y/y
    Kernel, ELLHP80: $7.80-8.20/kg, stagnant m/m and 47-49% more y/y

China
- China’s crop is expected to be flat at 1.34 million metric tons in the 2023-24 season. China is the largest world origin and is projected to conclude the season with carry-over stocks of 120,000 metric tons, two and a half times more than in the previous season. Export data reveals these huge inventories might be at the core of weak prices as the international market is flooded with walnuts which are not fulfilling the EU requests.
China exported 218,120 metric tons of walnuts in 2023, 70% more y/y, having exceeded the record level reached in 2021: 154,000 metric tons.
Chinese in-shell light Amber halve prices averaged £3,035 ($3,815) per metric ton EXW UK in January 2023, 4% more m/m and 13% less y/y, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Ukraine
- Ukraine is exporting in full swing although with strong discounts due to its dark color, being linked to the Moldovans by European and Middle East importers. Exports increased by 11% y/y to 23,000 metric tons in January-November 2023. The main importers were Turkey (4,320 metric tons, +56% y/y) and Azerbaijan (2,778 metric tons, +11% y/y).

Outlook
- Once Chile has sold out the 2023 production, California must face the Chinese supply in Central Asia and Ukraine selling out its low-quality carry-over stocks at low prices in the Middle East and Europe. However, prices are gradually recovering. Commercial transactions developed in the Gulfood fair for the Ramadan campaign will drive prices.

Feb 16 - Vietnam prices edge down post holidays, Indonesia premiums rise (Reuters)

- Vietnam coffee prices have softened but remain at higher levels amid tight supplies and lacklustre trade after a week-long Lunar New Year break, while premiums were higher in Indonesia also due to a shortage of beans, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 78,900-79,200 dong ($3.23-$3.24) per kg, down from 79,100-80,000 dong range pre-holiday.
"Some deals have been sealed on the very first daysof the Lunar New Year," said a trader based in the coffee belt.
"Most farmers are cultivating both coffee trees and fruit trees, especially durians. They prioritised selling durians first as fruits get easily spoiled, to cash in for holiday... hopefully they will release more coffee beans in the coming days."

- Robusta coffee LRCc2 for May delivery settled down $73, at $3,090 per metric ton onWednesday.

- Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a premium of $150-$200 per ton to the May contract.

- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at a $550 premium to the March contract this week, up $10-$20 compared to two weeks ago. "The higher price was due to a lack of coffee beans and high price in the London terminal," one trader said. Another trader quoted a $600 premium to the May contract this week, citing the shortage of beans as one of the reasons for the high premium.

Feb 16 - Ivory Coast cocoa council says it will not default on contracts despite bean shortage (Reuters)

- Ivory Coast's Cocoa and Coffee Council will not default on its export contracts despite a drop in cocoa production since the start of the October-to-March main crop, CCC's managing director Yves Brahima Kone said on Thursday. His remarks followed reports that as traders are scrambling for beans, industry experts are predicting ever wider deficits this season and have growing concerns for the next. Last week, a Reuters cocoa poll forecast a global deficit of 375,000 tons in the 2023/24 season.

Bean supply is tight in the world's top producer of the commodity. Cocoa arrivals at ports were 33% lower between Oct. 1 and Feb. 11 compared to the same period last season.

Kone said in an interview on Thursday that the Cocoa and Coffee Council regulator would still meet all its commitments made to exporters last year.

He said the amount of beans available on cocoa plantations across the country would still be enough to meet export contracts despite a sharp drop in supply recorded since the start of the 2023-24 season.
"I can tell you that there are no and will be no defaults this year in Ivory Coast," Kone said.
"We have been cautious and have sold volumes we were able to produce this season, both for the main and mid crops, so we are calm and serene," he said.

- Several industry sources, including exporters, have said the April-to-September mid crop would be more or less in line with usual production patterns, which would compensate for low main crop output. Pod counters, exporters and analysts estimate mid crop production to sit between 450,000 and 500,000 tonnes.

- Kone said export contracts that could not be met with main crop harvests would be pushed back to the mid crop's harvest period, which has already happened in the past.
"We can see that the mid crop harvest is developing much better than we expected, and that's reassuring. We have sold less and have a good margin," he said.
"We are going to postpone any contracts that need to be postponed, but it's important to remember that we have sold just under 300,000 tonnes in mid crop contracts. This gives us some leeway in relation to production forecasts," he added.
"There is less cocoa available this year, but there is plenty for those who have contracts."

Feb 16 - Madagascar delaying the commercial vanilla season due to low prices (IHSmarkit)

- Production cost settled at $120-150/kg
- High inventories of red vanilla driving prices
- No price difference between organic and conventional product

Madagascan vanilla prices are clearly down from the official production cost of $120-150/kg settled by the Madagascan government, which has halted the release of the commercial season, industry sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights during the organic fair Biofach, held in Nuremberg (Germany) from 13-16 February.

The Madagascan government recently lifted the official export price of $250/kg, banning exports below the official production cost. However, these sources listed the following conventional FOB quotes:

    Cuts: $20-25/kg
    Red vanilla: $50-55/kg (20-25% dry)
    Black vanilla: $70-80/kg

EU maximum residue limit (MRL) requests are so high that many importers are not asking for organic as processors are not interested in it, matching prices between both.
“Many purchasers are not interested in red vanilla as they do not trust exporters, who have built up high inventories which drive prices, forcing exporters to sell organic as conventional,” she explained.

“Everybody expects a lower crop with plants having a lower yield. We might see purchasers launching bids for red vanilla in the 2024-25 season, starting a price recovery as the international market has digested inventories. However, this price recovery might be slow,” she concluded.

Feb 16 - Price difference between organic and conventional pistachios and cashews at lows (IHSmarkit)

- Price difference between organic and conventional Vietnamese cashews: $0.1 per lb
- West African conventional cashew quoted at $3.10/lb FOB
- Concerns about average quality in Turkish hazelnuts

The price difference between organic and conventional walnuts, pistachios, pecans, hazelnuts and cashews are at lows, the chief officer of the French organic trader Sunny Trade explained to S&P Global Commodity Insights in the food fair Biofach, held in Nuremberg (Germany) from 12-16 February.
“Difference is minimal, being very discouraging for growers who have made the effort of being certified thinking deeply if they will renew it or not,” Giroud said.

Sunny Trade is commercializing organic Californian pistachios. Organic pistachios 21/25 currently are priced at $9.5/kg FOB against $8.6/kg for conventional.

Ukrainian exports are recovering strongly although there are problems about quality, mirroring Moldova. “Flavor is good although the color is very dark as farmers have halted investment in inputs due to war. However, organic importers are not really worried about this dark color as Ukrainian walnuts combine geographical proximity and reliability, fulfilling sustainability goals for many of them,” Giroud explained.

Meanwhile, the price difference between Vietnamese organic and conventional cashews, the former being quoted at $2.85/lb for WW240 FOB Ho-Chi Minh City just now is only $0.10/lb “Vietnamese prices will increase for sure after the Lunar festival (February) due to additional fees as a consequence of the Red Sea crisis. That means West African origins such as Ivory Coast and Nigeria might increase their market share as their prices will not be as high as before, averaging currently $3.10/lb FOB for organic WW240. West African processors might cut prices to raise their market share once the latest plants start to work in full swing. Currently, they are selling out all the production to the US and the EU and they do not need to push down quotes,” Giroud added.

The price difference between Turkish organic and conventional hazelnuts are around $0.9, with conventional being quoted at $8.6 kg CPT for 11/12 and organic at $9.5/kg. “This price level is satisfactory for producers although they are concerned about pests. This problem was common in Georgia and is currently hitting Turkey, making it hard to find high-quality product, with exporters mixing hazelnuts of different seasons. Many people are keeping an eye on Azerbaijan although their size and shape is appreciated by confectionery processors, Ferrero being key to drive its sales,” Giroud explained.

Feb 15 - Global raw sugar prices expected to rise 20% this year
Raw sugar prices are expected to post an annual gain of nearly 20% in 2024 as the global market shifts into a deficit in the upcoming season, a Reuters poll of 12 traders and analysts showed. Sugar is set to close the year at 24.5 cents per lb, up 5% versus the close on Tuesday and as much as 19% above levels at the end of last year, according to the poll's median forecast.

Feb 12 - Cocoa prices continue to hit record highs (IHSmarkit)

Cocoa prices continued their upward trend this week as supply remained tight, with traders predicting increasingly large deficits this season.

The cocoa contract for March delivery in London hit a record £4,670 per metric ton ($5,893/t) during the session on Thursday, before closing at £4,660/t. This was up 7.3% from the previous day and 17% on the week. Prices have more than doubled since the start of last year.

Cocoa arrivals at top growers Ivory Coast and Ghana’s ports continued to lag well behind last season’s figures, with no signs of recovery.

Traders fear that the shortage will extend into next year, with missing volumes from this season’s crop having to be filled with next season’s beans.

Similarly, the cocoa contract for March delivery in New York hit a new all-time high of $5,874/t on 8 February, before closing at $5,805/t, having risen about 7% from the previous day and 17% from a week ago. Prices reached a record high in the US just a few days before Valentine's Day celebration, one of the hottest chocolate buying periods in the country.

Feb 12 - Low inventories fuel Indian turmeric prices (IHSmarkit)

- 8-9% m/m increase in spot prices
- 6% y/y growth in exports
- Main importers: Bangladesh, the UAE and Morocco

Low inventories are fueling Indian turmeric prices, although most traders do not expect speculative bets as the crop might be bumper this season.

The Indian spot fob unpolished turmeric price averaged 13,305 Indian rupees per quintal ($1,603/metric ton) at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, south-central) on 8 February 2024, 9% more month-on-month and 98% more year-on-year. The polished product averaged INR13,879/q on 8 February, 8% more m/m and 94% more y/y.

India’s global sales reached 156,850 metric tons, 6% more/y, worth $195.4 million (+1% y/y), in January-November 2023. The main importers were Bangladesh, the UAE and Morocco, taking 24%, 8% and 6%, respectively, of the volume.

Feb 08 - High robusta coffee prices boost demand for arabica beans (Reuters)

- The sharp price increase for robusta coffee, due mainly to poor crops in Asia, is leading roasters to change their blends towards using more lower quality arabicas to cut costs, according to a report by broker hEDGEpoint Global Markets.

Prices for robusta increased 67% last year as a stagnant production in the top grower of that variety, Vietnam, and lower output in Indonesia means supply is not coping with demand. Robusta coffee is widely used to make instant coffee and in blends with lower quality arabicas. Fine arabicas are preferred by high-end coffee shops and single serve capsule producers.

hEDGEpoint forecasts that there will be a deficit of 3.12 million bags of robusta coffee in the market in the 2023/24 season (Oct-Sept), saying the combined production from Vietnam and Indonesia will fall by between 3 and 4 million bags.

As arabica prices rose less, the arbitrage (price difference) KC-LRC1=R between the futures of the two types of coffee fell to levels that boost demand for some types of arabicas, Carlos Costa, hEDGEpoint's global head of sales, said in the report.
"Apparently, with arbitrage at levels of around 40 cents per pound, we have seen demand migrate to arabicas," said Costa, adding that if the robusta supply situation worsens, the market could see the arbitrage fall close to a low of 28 cents per pound seen in June 2017.

According to Cepea/Esalq, a research center at the University of Sao Paulo, prices for lower quality arabica in Brazil (Rio type) are currently around $166 per 60-kg bag, while robusta futures in London are trading at around $186 a bag.

The analyst believes the robusta market will remain supported, since there is no expectation for an increase on Vietnam's production beyond 31 million bags, and Brazil's robusta (conilon) production, which has become an alternative to Vietnam's beans, is growing only slightly every year.

Feb 07 - Vietnam coffee farmers seek to renegotiate deals after global price surge (Reuters)

- Farmers in major coffee exporter Vietnam are refusing to deliver coffee they have sold unless contracts are renegotiated following a surge in global prices to a 28-year high. Vietnam is the world's largest supplier of robusta coffee and the standoff is adding impetus to a rally in robusta prices with supplies in Europe becoming very tight. The country had its poorest crop in six years in the 2022/23 season and some contracts were rolled forward into the 2023/24 season meaning a large crop was needed for farmers to fulfil all their commitments.

This season's harvest was, however, also sub-par. The poor crops drove prices much higher and farmers felt they could not afford to deliver at the agreed prices and have sought to renegotiate their contracts.
"I would not say we broke the contract. When prices went up, we renegotiated the prices with buyers. For now, we only release beans if buyers can match our quoted prices," said a Vietnamese farmer in Dak Lak, the main producing region, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The standoff, which initially impacted local Vietnamese dealers, has now filtering out into the wider market, tightening global supplies and helping push the benchmark world price index to its highest since 1995.

Traders estimate that the delivery of between 1-2 million bags of last season's pre-sold Vietnamese coffee - or up to 8.5% of the country's total exports - was delayed following the harvesting of a poor crop in the 2022/23 season. Although much of that coffee has since been delivered, it has left less coffee available for sale this season, exacerbating the price rally.

Two more farmers in Dak Lak, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said they were delivering pre-sold beans but they have had to renegotiate the price because of how much the spot market has rallied.

Traders who baulk at paying up are left short of supply of robusta, which is mainly used in instant coffee, espresso and blends of ground coffee. A Vietnam-based trader said in December and January, there were still some deliveries of pre-sold coffee, but he expects these will fall sharply in the months ahead as he now cannot even get hold of suppliers who owe him this low-priced coffee.

Even though they have written contracts, global traders say it is not worthwhile for them to sue local suppliers because of the expense involved.

Mentality Shift

- One Europe-based trader said he received just 20% of the Vietnamese coffee he was meant to get last November and December. The coffee was bought last August at a price some 20% below current local rates. Instead, he is trying to convince his suppliers to deliver a small portion of the low priced coffee in return for large volumes of orders for coffee priced at current spot rates.

- Those who agree still get a good average rate for their coffee, he explained, but added that the strategy only works if one has good relationships with relatively reliable suppliers.
"The mentality shift is huge, today even if you pay the spot (rate) you might not get as much (coffee) as you want," he said.

- All the traders Reuters spoke to declined to name their problem suppliers due to 'sensitive' talks currently underway with them. An industry expert said all global traders operating in Vietnam have been impacted by the situation. These include Louis Dreyfus, Sucafina, Volcafe and Neumann Kaffee Gruppe, who between them purchase most of the coffee Vietnam produces for export, and whose trading activities, because of their size, tend to impact world prices.
- Louis Dreyfus, Sucafina and Volcafe, a unit of ED&F Man, did not respond to requests by Reuters for comment.
- Neumann Kaffee Gruppe said it was 'too early to make an accurate statement' about the supply situation in Vietnam, because it is still unfolding.

- Vietnam, which produces more than a third of the world's robusta, harvested 26.3 million bags of coffee last season - a six-year low - with the current season seen at 26.6 million, U.S. Department of Agriculture data shows.

- Given the dwindling supplies, many market participants have been turning to the ICE Futures Europe exchange for coffee, driving stocks down. ICE-certified robusta stocks are currently at 10-year lows, according to data from a second Europe-based trader. Falling ICE stocks are visible to the entire market so tend to drive benchmark ICE futures prices higher.
"There's a likelihood this robusta story will persist until the new (robusta) crop (from Brazil is harvested). Even then I'm not convinced it's over," said a trader, referring to possible relief some time around mid-2024.

Feb 06 - North European potato crop estimates for 2023 released (IHSmarkit)

- Final output 5% higher y/y
- The Netherlands has harvested fewer potatoes
- Prices on the rise

About 22.7 million metric tons of potatoes were harvested in 2023 across northern Europe, a 5.1% increase compared with the disastrous 2022, the North European Potato Growers Organization (NEPG), representing growers in Belgium, France, Germany, and the Netherlands, estimates. Across the four producing countries about 11,000 hectares of potatoes planted area could not be harvested leading to losses that the NEPG estimates being above 650,000 metric tons. The potatoes were grown on a total area of 519,583 ha, or 2.0% more than in 2022. The average yields for the whole area were 43.7 t/ha, or 1.4% more than in 2022.

In Belgium, despite the dramatic losses suffered by several farmers, overall production was up 18% y/y thanks to a 7.9% increase in the cultivated area to 96,639 ha and a better average yield per ha (+9.6% y/y to 47 t/ha). In France, the potato output was 13% higher than in 2022 to 6.8 million metric tons, while in Germany the increase was just 2.1% y/y to 8.16 million metric tons. Unlike the rest of the NEPG zone, the yields, surface area, and therefore overall production in the Netherlands were lower in 2023 compared with 2022 (-13.5%, - 1.5%, and -14.9% respectively).

The NEPG pointed out that industry demand remains robust, and it might become increasingly difficult for processors to contract enough potatoes next season.
“Most growers realize that growing potatoes is not just a costly activity, but also a risky activity. Under these conditions, the question arises as to what area must be planted under current market conditions,” the NEPG noted, adding that growers operating under contracted prices struggle to cover rising production costs and ever-increasing risks. In addition, many fields have been damaged and compacted by heavy rains which require higher investments from growers to be restored.

The Dutch Arable Farming Union (NAV) estimated in January that contracted prices of potatoes for consumption in 2024 should increase by about 10% y/y to fully cover growers rising production costs.

The availability of seed potatoes is also a concern. There are no estimates about available volumes, but market players estimate that plants will be costlier and quality uncertain which could lead to lower yields and volumes for the spot market.

Meanwhile, spot prices of potatoes for processing in Belgium (Fontane and Challenger varieties) have jumped to €300-318 ($323.50-342.91) per metric ton on 2 February, against €250/t of the previous week.

Prices have also increased in the Netherlands with varieties for fast-food fries selling for €275-300/t as of 29 January 2024, against €240-275/t of the week before. In the months of November and December, potato prices were more stable and in the range of €200/t despite the looming contraction in volumes available to the industry. Market players pointed out that potatoes coming off the ground between November and December had to be used straight away as they were not storable, the quality was low, and they needed a lot of washing, hence stable prices despite the reduced harvested volumes.

The 2023 season was a challenging one for potato growers in Europe. A large share of the fields could not be planted after mid-May due to wet conditions in March and April, and this has also caused issues with seed quality affecting yields in some cases. A wet autumn has instead delayed harvesting with about 11% of the potatoes still in the soil by mid-November and between 5-8% remaining unharvested up to January, according to the Potato Cultivation Test Center (PCA) as reported by the specialist Dutch publication Nieuweoogst.

Feb 06 - Sharp increase in Australian almond production expected (IHSMarkit)

- 59.4% y/y increase in production expected
- Record planted area of 62,400 hectares
- Main importers: China and India

Australia’s almond production is forecast at 164,700 (kernel) metric tons in 2024, 59.4% more year-on-year, thanks to the combination of an on-year (all nut trees combine one season with a high yield and another with a low) and abundant water supply, according to the Almond Board of Australia (ABA).

Harvesting and the 2024-25 season starts this February.
Almond trees have become the largest irrigated production in the southern Murray-Darling Basin, with 62,400 hectares. That means a potential crop of 200,000 metric tons over the next years.

Demand for Australian almonds remains high due to Chinese and Indian imports, having sold out the 2023-24 crop with prices still at lows.
The ABA is supporting a moratorium for new licenses for water use until an accurate survey of water availability in the Murray-Darling Basin has been completed.

Feb 05 - Cocoa prices continue to hit record highs amid poor crops in West Africa (IHSmarkit)

Cocoa prices rose further last week as global supply remained tight amid poor crops in top growers Ivory Coast and Ghana. In London, the March cocoa contract settled at £3,975 ($5,070) per metric ton on 1 February, after hitting a fresh record high of £3,992/t during the session. This was up £253/t from last week and £92/t on the day.

In Cameroon, one of the largest producers, cocoa farmgate prices hit a record high of 2,730 francs CFA ($4.53) per kg on Wednesday, driven by tightening global supply.

Production shortfalls in West Africa are expected to lead to a large global deficit in the current 2023-24 season.

Similarly, the cocoa contract for March delivery in New York closed at $4,956/t, after setting a 46-year high of $4,981/t during the day. This was up $331 from the previous week. The return of the seasonal Harmattan dry winds and poor rains in top producer Ivory Coast’s cocoa growing regions was also a bullish factor for prices.

Feb 05 - Fall in Indian cumin seed prices steepens (IHSmarkit)

Indian cumin seed spot prices averaged 30,780 Indian rupees per quintal ($4,718/metric ton) in conventional contracts (lots over three metric tons) at the Unjha market (Gujarat, northwest) on 19 January 2024, 17% less month-on-month and 11% less year-on-year.
Meanwhile, mini contracts (lots at a maximum of one metric ton), recently released, also recorded falls.

Farmers have expanded the planted area strongly due to record prices, having sown about 376,000 hectares under cumin seed as of 4 December in Gujarat.

Indian cumin seed exports reached 117,389 metric tons valued at $461.4 million in January-September 2023, 23% less y/y in volume and 18% more y/y in value, according to customs data. China, Bangladesh and the US were the main importers of whole cumin seeds (94% of the exported volume), accounting for 31%, 20% and 5%, respectively, of the volume.

Feb 02 -Vietnam prices edge up amid tepid activity ahead of holiday (Reuters)

- Vietnam coffee prices edged up this week as trade remained sluggish ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year holiday starting next Thursday, while prices were slightly lower in Indonesia due to a shortage of beans, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 79,100-80,000 dong ($3.24-$3.28) per kg, compared to 73,000-75,000 dong last week.
"Although prices are reaching a new high, trade is limited as some already are under holiday sentiment and dwindling down activities," said a trader based in coffee belt.
"In addition, prices are too high for many buyers now."

- Robusta coffee LRCc2 for May delivery was trading at $3,173 per metric ton as of 0943 GMT on Thursday.

- Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a premium of $160 per ton to the May contract.
Vietnam exported 96,000 tons of coffee in the first two weeks of January, up 4.2% from a year earlier, government data released on Monday showed. Coffee export revenue in the period rose 40% to $283 million.

- Indonesia's Sumatra exported 4,705.59 tons of robusta coffee bean inDecember, data from local trade office showed, down 91% from the same month last year. Sumatra beans were offered at a $480-$490 premium to the March contract this week. The prices were $500-$520 premiums to the February contract.
"The slightly lower price was due to a lack of coffee supply," the trader said, adding price was also adjusting to London terminal.

Feb 01 - Record cashew smuggling detected in Vietnam (IHSmarkit)

- Tonnage detected: 16,618 metric tons of raw cashew nuts
- 46% y/y increase in processed cashew exports
- Main suppliers: Ivory Coast and Cambodia

Raw cashew nut (RCN) smuggling is reaching record levels in Vietnam, as the latest sentences and police actions have revealed, confirming rumors about frauds with imports or Cambodian RCN exceeding clearly its crop in previous seasons.

Vietnamese authorities are hardening inspections on small and company statements and warehouses, after closing with record processed cashew exports of 644,130 metric tons (24% more year-on-year) and RCN imports of 2.7 million metric tons (+46% y/y). Ivory Coast and Cambodia were the largest importers, accounting for 32% and 22%, respectively.

A Vietnamese court has sentenced for smuggling two traders who imported illegally 16,000 metric tons of RCNs valued at 481 billion Vietnamese dong ($19.6 million).

The company NLSG Import-Export Joint Stock, acquired the firm TSK Agricultural Products Company Limited and changed its name to NLBT Joint Stock Company from 2013-21. This company acquire RCNs from Cambodia and Africa for processing and exporting, following the domestic rule which only allows imports with zero or low tariffs on those RCNs to be processed for exports. However, it kept 16,000 metric tons altering custom documents and declarations to avoid paying tariffs for imported RCNs to be processed for Vietnamese consumption.

Meanwhile, the trader CTP Import-Export Company is being investigated by police as it could have altered custom statements to avoid paying import tariffs for RCNs used for the domestic market. According to police research. The company has imported around 618.7 metric tons from 2014-23, with a total value of VND1.4 billion.

Jan 31 - Madagascar vanilla market poised for next surge in demand (IHSmarkit)

- Global buyers need to replenish stocks and have started to take coverage
- Madagascar still has ample carry-over stocks to sell
- Concerns for Madagascar’s 2024 crop

Madagascar’s vanilla has attracted strong demand this month after the country’s government added to its list of approved exporters.

In late December 2023 the Madagascar government opened up the market so there was no longer a specified minimum export price, this being $250 per kilogram over much of 2023. However, according to trade sources, there is an unofficial minimum level of around $40/kg for any quality as Madagascar’s customs officers are declining any attempts to export material at prices below this level. As standard procedure, the customs officer checks the exporter’s invoice for the listed price.

On 16 January, Stephane Leveque, chief executive at De Monchy Natural Products, reported on Linkedin: “Although the 2023-24 vanilla campaign started slowly, it is showcasing excellent quality with high vanillin content and well-measured moisture levels. While concerns persist in regards to an oversupply of cuts, the availability of high-quality black-grade vanilla is notable, though it may be insufficient to meet the growing demand for this specific grade.”

Similarly, Gianna Palmaro of APL Vanilla & Spices Madagascar reported that due to good maturity of the beans being picked late, there was very good quality with high vanillin content in the 2023 crop produce now being sold. In addition, on 30 January a well-informed French trader confirmed that quality was very good from Madagascar’s 2023 crop.

Approved exporters
- The latter recalled that the first list of approved exporters was issued in late December and consisted of 57 so-called “industrials”. This was followed this month by the second list of two new industrials and 94 in the other category, referred to locally as “artisans”. The end result is a list of 153 exporters in total. It has been suggested that this reflects a push to get 2023 crop volumes exported as there is still a lot of material left in Madagascar. Moreover, the country needs to generate some revenue and a good way of achieving this is by selling its vanilla. This is particularly important with the next season (2024-25) approaching in June or July when the new green beans crop starts. Small-scale export operations need the revenue from the 2023 crop in order to finance the next one (warehousing costs etc.).


Demand is picking up
“We definitely feel that the market is awakening,” the French trader told S&P Global Commodity Insights. “Last year very little business was done on vanilla due to the fixed price at $250 (per kg) FOB. So the carry-over in consuming countries is starting to become really low and industries need to buy. What is helping industries to buy is that the price has been dropping very quickly.”
- He also noted that with prices low and their inventories limited buyers are keen to secure volume orders. February and March are expected to be particularly active.
Leveque of De Monchy Natural Products observed: “Clients are beginning to secure short and medium-term contracts, influenced by a local market encouraging some of them to explore long positions.”

Prices are much lower than three months ago
- Current prices for the lowest grade, i.e. cuts, are around $30/kg FOB Antananarivo. Grade 1 extraction quality is being offered at $50/kg FOB Antananarivo. Hence, currently traded levels are substantially lower than the $250/kg of three months ago.
- Back in 2018 Madagascar vanilla prices soared to $600/kg FOB after cyclone damage to the crop and as buyers moved back to real vanilla from synthetic alternatives. The average price of the last 25 years is around $145/kg FOB. The low of $25/kg FOB was in 2009.

Madagascar’s 2023 crop amounted to around 2,300 metric tons of cured beans.
- Leveque of De Monchy Natural Products added that with an estimated carry-over of approximately 800 metric tons from previous campaigns, availability remains satisfactory.
- Palmaro of APL Vanilla & Spices Madagascar, gave a higher carry-over estimate of more than 1,000 metric tons from previous campaigns “available on the ground in Madagascar”.
The French trader was even more positive on the supply, stating that as of mid-December Madagascar had a total of 3,000-3,500 metric tons of stock position (including carry-over and new crop), which would amount to more than one-and-a-half years of consumption volume.
- Palmaro noted that the combination of the carry-over stock from the past years, and a very good green vanilla bean crop in 2023-24 was causing Madagascar vanilla prices to decline.

Prices need to edge up from current levels
- Leveque added that sustained demand growth is crucial to reaching price levels that benefit all stakeholders of the industry, particularly farmers, as current prices remain too low for a sustainable supply chain.
- Palmaro of APL Vanilla & Spices Madagascar also noted: “Current prices remain too low for farmers to be sustainable. Let’s not forget that cloves and vanilla go hand in hand. This year, cloves prices were good therefore those holding stocks are not keen to quickly sell.”

Uncertain outlook for 2024 crop
- Uncertainties loom over the blossoming of the 2024 campaign, as a significant number of flowers have perished. Leveque stated: “While there is no impact to be anticipated in the short term, this is a factor that must be kept in mind.”
The French trader observed: “The blooming was rather bad. The peak was in October, which is very early, and they were all expecting a second peak for the blooming, which never happened and has never happened before. There is normally one peak and never two. So the next season (2024-25) is going to be quite short.”
The French trader estimated that Madagascar’s 2024 vanilla crop could be as low as 1,000 metric tons, so less than half of the previous one.
In addition, he suggested that the poor outlook for 2024 is another key reason for buyers to take coverage now and over the next five months or so to safeguard their requirements into the 2024-25 season.

Palmaro listed the following elements of uncertainty for the 2024-25 campaign later this year:-
- Vanilla curing is an art and not everyone can pull quality beans particularly the black gourmet. Due to low prices and stocks, many did not buy and prepare the green beans. As a result, APL Vanilla & Spices Madagascar is expecting a lot of cuts and red vanilla. In addition, there might not be sufficient volumes of black gourmet grade.
- The company has noticed a lot of phenolic vanilla around the farmers as curing was not properly sundried.
- In addition, farmers and cooperatives in Madagascar report shortages in the flowering of the vanilla of up to 30-50% less than usual.

Political stability
In the political sphere, amid the recent formation of a new government in Madagascar, the prime minister and the minister of commerce remain in their roles. As a result, short-term alterations in the political landscape are not expected. This suggests there should be a period of stability in the vanilla sector for the coming months.
Will prices also be stable?

The French Trader predicted that prices should hold around current levels for the next three months. From May, June or July it should be clear whether the 2024-25 season is set to be as low as feared, in which case prices could increase to as much as $100/kg FOB, or more. “Some buyers will most probably come to the market and buy volumes before the season (2023-24) is closed. It’s highly possible that when the new season starts in October or November 2024 the market quotes will be over $100 per kg,” he said.

Jan 29 - Indian guar gum prices continue to fall (IHSmarkit)

- 2% m/m fall in spot prices
- 75% y/y fall in guar gum exports in January-October 2023
- 5% m/m fall in futures prices for deliveries from February-June 2024

Guar gum prices are still falling, once the guar seed harvest has concluded although the 2023-24 production is expected to fall by 13% year-on-year.

India’s guar gum spot price averaged 10,556 Indian rupees per quintal ($1,269/metric ton) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 29 January 2024, 2% less month-on-month and 17% less year-on-year.

Indian guar gum exports fell by 75% y/y in volume to 52,075 metric tons and in value to $104.3 million in January-October 2023. The main importers were the US (14,289 metric tons, -76% y/y); Russia (10,249 metric tons, -67% y/y) and Germany (5,798 metric tons, -78% y/y).

Jan 25 - Vietnam domestic prices, Indonesia premium rise on thin supplies (Reuters)

- Vietnamese coffee prices extended gains on Thursday on concerns about thin supplies, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 73,000-75,000 dong ($2.97-$3.05) per kg, up from 71,000-72,900 dong last week.
"Prices have edged higher as farmers refrain from selling their beans to traders on anticipation of higher prices due to the Red Sea tensions and low London inventories," said a trader based in the coffee belt.
"Many exporters are finding it hard to secure enough coffee to fulfil their signed contracts."
Another trader said farmers are still holding around 70% of the beans harvested in the 2023-24 crop.

- March robusta futures on Wednesday settled $25, or 0.8%, higher at $3,207 a ton, after peaking at $3,254 earlier - the highest since the current form of the contract started trading in January 2008.

- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee premium widened this week, also on thin supplies.
Sumatra robusta bean is offered at a $500-520 premium for the February-March contract this week, compared with last week's premium of $500.
A trader said the premium widened to $500 this week from $450 last week, adding that the trend "will continue for a while, at least until the expected main harvest in April and June."

Jan 24 - Hazelnut Update January 2024 (IHSmarkit)

- Turkish hazelnuts on a volatile path this month
- Elections in Turkey at the end of March could be a turning point
- Stinkbug disease casts doubts over actual supply

The Turkish hazelnut market has shown sharp increases in prices over the course of this month.

S&P Global Commodity Insights price data shows Turkish 11-13 hazelnuts on 18 January 2024 quoted at $8,400 per metric ton CPT Europe, up from $8,150/t CPT Europe on 12 January, $8,000/t CPT on 5 January and $7,850/t CPT on 28 December 2023.

Vittorio Friedmann of UK trader Voicevale said: “It has been hectic since the beginning of the year. Now, since the beginning of the week (22 January) it seems that it is settling at the new high. The trading activity is not strong but there were a couple of tenders of large users which origin speculated on.”

Jan 22 - Fall in Indian cumin seed prices steepens (IHSmarkit)

- 17% fall in prices of conventional and mini contracts
- Expansion in the planted area
- 23% y/y fall in exports

Indian cumin seed spot prices averaged 30,780 Indian rupees per quintal ($4,718/metric ton) in conventional contracts (lots over three metric tons) at the Unjha market (Gujarat, northwest) on 19 January 2024, 17% less month-on-month and 11% less year-on-year.

Meanwhile, mini contracts (lots at a maximum of one metric ton), recently released, also recorded falls. Prices averaged INR30,780/q on 19 January 2024, 17% less m/m.

Farmers have expanded the planted area strongly due to record prices in the 2022-23 season, all players expecting a bumper crop. About 376,000 hectares was sown under cumin seed as ofn 4 December in Gujarat compared with 144,000 ha of the previous year. 

Indian cumin seed exports reached 117,389 metric tons valued at $461.4 million in January-September 2023, 23% less y/y in volume and 18% more y/y in value, according to customs data. China, Bangladesh and the US were the main importers of whole cumin seeds (94% of the exported volume), accounting for 31%, 20% and 5%, respectively, of the volume.

China was the driver of export growth from January-April but record prices have slowed its purchases. As soon as China has halted imports this September (0 records), the price has plummeted.

Jan 22 - Peanut Update January 2024 (IHSmarkit)

- Quality remains an issue with 2023 crop US peanuts
- Freight rate increases send Chinese peanut prices higher
- Fears over planned export tax in Argentina

Towards the end of 2023 it became increasingly clear the global peanut market was facing difficulties due to supply issues from a number of the key origins. A significant element of this was quality shortfalls forcing a shift in the whole supply and demand dynamics.

Argentina
On 19 December 2023 the Argentine government announced new export taxes for several commodities which included an increase of 15% for peanuts. The export tax would be based on FOB prices and would be effective as soon as it is ratified. At the time of writing this article (22 January) it remained unratified.
Izmirlian of Alimenta Agri noted that the proposed export tax on peanuts should be equivalent to about $250 per metric ton.

Brazil
Plantings in Brazil should be finally completed by now. Lots of farmer stock is still available for the current crop with a quality that is unsuitable for the EU.
China is by far the largest importer of peanut oil from Brazil, but with China’s weak economy, weak currency and seemingly plentiful peanut supply, Brazil’s peanut oil exports to the Asian country are expected to remain low.

China
With the US dollar weakening probably due to expectations of lower interest rates to come, export prices on Chinese peanuts could continue to increase, and imports would be slightly more interesting. “The biggest issue at this time though is the weak economy with no economical reversal in site,” Izmirlian noted.
In November 2023 China imported 2,331 metric tons of peanuts versus 28,412 metric tons at the same time last year. Sudan accounted for 2,100 metric tons of the November 2023 volume.

Peanut oil imports
In November 2023 China imported 12,074 metric tons of peanut oil against 25,557 metric tons in the same period last year. India accounted for 5,835 metric tons of the November 2023 total, while 2,934 metric tons was from Argentina and 2,354 metric tons from Brazil.
In a report issued on 4 January, Mumbai-based supplier M.Lakhamsi Industries stated: “After decent activity in October and November, trade in general has been lackluster since mid-December, largely due to the holiday season globally. The Suez situation has put shipments to the Middle East, North Africa and EU on a bit of a pause thanks to the significant hike in freight rates. Luckily the Far East markets, which are the most important ones for us, have not been affected.”

Sudan
Izmirlian of Alimenta Agri warned that Sudan will have difficulties selling its new but lower peanut crop with the current Red Sea maritime issues.
“Sudan is not present in a significant manner to create any competition. On the other hand, we did have a bit of a challenge to sell blanched peanuts as Chinese prices were quite attractive and with bigger sizes that India is unable to offer,” M.Lakhamsi noted. The company added that with high prices in Argentina and elsewhere, it was expecting a slightly better run than usual.
This situation together with the higher prices that the Sudanese were asking for their peanuts should make it easier for Senegal to sell its seemingly good and increased production, he suggested.

Conclusion
The global peanut market now has to brace itself for what looks set to be a particularly challenging year. In addition, to the issues of sourcing quality peanuts from key origins such as the US and Argentina, there are the extra logistical hassles and higher freight costs created by the Red Sea crisis along with the threatened export taxes on Argentine peanuts.

Jan 19 - Domestic prices in Vietnam rise further on supplies concern (Reuters)

- Vietnamese coffee prices extended gains this week as farmers refused to sell beans in hopes of better prices amid shipping disruptions, while Indonesian premiums fell, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 71,000-72,900 dong ($2.89-$2.97) per kg, compared to 69,800-72,000 dong last week.
"Prices keep making new peaks as supplies are very scarce now. Buying beans is a competition now," said a trader based in the coffee belt.
"The situation is not positive at all... Many (traders) have already been late for their deliveries of their signed contracts as they failed to secure beans."

- March robusta coffee LRCc2 has gained $218 in a week, at $3,156 per ton as of Wednesday.
"Inventories on the London exchange hit record low as a result of bean shortage in Vietnam, pushing the prices up," the second trader said.

- Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a premium of $20-$25 per metric ton to the May contract.

- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at $500 premium to the February-March contract this week, $50 below last week's premium.
"The price is adjusting to the London terminal," one trader said.
Another trader quoted a $450 premium this week to the March contract.

Jan 18 - Pistachio Update January 2024 (IHSmarkit)

    Booming US pistachio exports
    Iranian and US prices stabilized
    Spain’s crop estimate upgraded

This is a regular feature update on the pistachio market as of January 2024. The next update will be available in the same stage of February 2024. If you want to read the previous update, click here .
California is recording booming pistachio exports, revealing that the former is increasing its market share against other edible nuts such as almonds and walnuts, particularly in China where consumers are willing to buy them despite having a price higher than the latter. International markets are literally flooded, with Iran having a bumper crop, although average, and minor European origins such as Spain and Italy expanding plantations.
The 2023-24 global pistachio production is projected at 1.02 million metric tons, 39% more year-on-year, with the US and Iranian trees being in an ‘on-season’ (most nut trees have an on-season with a high yield and a subsequent year with low yield).

California
- California’s crop is projected to increase by 41% y/y to 590,000 metric tons, although recent production updates have upgraded this estimate by 4-5%. The pistachio crop is expected to maintain a booming growth from 2023-31 after analyzing the current non-bearing acreage and the new plantings average, according to a survey conducted by the American Pistachio Growers Association (APG).
- December shipment data reveals sales are skyrocketing, flooding the global market and stabilizing prices, driven by China, the EU and Turkey.
- US pistachio shipments reached 75,062 short tons (+132% y/y) in December 2023, with exports accounting for 88% (464,956 short tons, three times more y/y). The main importers were China (29,470 short tons, eight times more y/y), Germany (7,000 short tons, up from 1,886 short tons in December 2022) and Turkey (6,000 short tons, up from 1,667 short tons in December 2022).
- Prices averaged $3.65/lb FOB for 21/25, extra Number 1, in-shells in November, stagnant month-on-month and y/y, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Kernels were quoted at $7.70/lb FOB this December, unchanged from September and 16% less y/y. Commercial inventories are estimated at 440,143 metric tons, 14% less m/m and 17% more y/y.

Iran
- Iran’s 2023 crop estimate has been downgraded to 180,000 metric tons, down from the initial forecast of 200,000 metric tons, with carry-over stocks at 20,000 metric tons, bringing the estimated supply to 200,000 metric tons (+92% y/y). However, recent production updates have increased this estimate and the output might range from 210,000-220,000 metric tons.
- Iran’s seasonal exports have reached 39,000 metric tons of pistachios in the 2023-2024 season (October-December), 77% more y/y but 17% down from October-December 2021. Kyrgyzstan, China, Russia and India were the main importers.
- Iranian kernels averaged €6,500 ($7,080) per metric ton in December, unchanged m/m.

Spain
- Spain is a minor origin although most sources expect it might become the fourth largest world producer as its planted area has reached around 50,000 hectares, mostly coming into fruition over the next three-four years. Spain’s 2023 pistachio production has been projected at 7,550 metric tons, 51% more than the previous forecast and three times more year-on-year, as Castile-La Mancha (south center), the main origin, has reached a record crop of around 5,580 metric tons, according to a survey conducted by the consultancy Solagro and Castile-La Mancha authorities.

They have analyzed the processing data from all the plants built in Spain.
Extremadura (southwest) is the second largest origin, with a crop of around 1,000 metric tons.
The Albacete pistachio wholesale market (Castile-La Mancha, southcenter) opened on 7 September, after being closed since 13 April 2023. The quotations listed in the week ending on 11 January were:
    Conventional kerman 18-20, €8.6/kg, 2% more m/m and 8% more y/y
    Conventional kerman 20-22, €7.9, stagnant m/m and 6% more y/y
    Conventional kerman 23-25, €7.6/kg, stagnant m/m and 6% more y/y
    Conventional kerman kernel, €15.25/kg, 3% more m/m and 38% more y/y
    Organic kerman, 18-20, €9.1/kg, 2% more m/m and 7% more y/y
    Organic kerman 20-22, €8.4/kg, stagnant m/m and 5% more y/y
    Organic kerman 23-25, €7.9/kg, stagnant m/m and 5% more y/y
    Organic kerman kernel, €15.75/kg, 3% more m/m and 23% up y/y

Outlook
- Pistachios are still a promising crop for growers, with prices still securing profitable revenues. International demand has not been hit by inflation, particularly in China, and exporters are checking as European markets are recovering their domestic consumption.
- US and Iranian trading sources agree that prices might be stabilized in Q2-Q3 despite the campaign to cover the Ramadan festival although rising sea shipping fares might push them slightly, with Iran and the US not being hit by the Red Sea crisis, as Turkey is.

Jan 17 - Brazilian robusta coffee exports more than tripled in 2023; arabica exports decline (IHSmarkit)

Brazilian green coffee exports ended 2023 almost flat compared with the previous year, having totaled 35.53 million 60 kg bags, according to the industry group Cecafe. This was marginally lower than the 35.62 million bags shipped in 2022.

Despite the slight decline, the results were positive, considering that last year’s exports faced logistical issues, such as changes in ship schedules in Brazil's main ports, according to Marcio Ferreira, Cecafe’s president. "Without these logistical issues, we probably would have exported up to 2 million more bags," he added.

Coffee exports from Brazil in 2023 were mainly marked by strong growth in shipments of the robusta variety and an increase in exports to China.

Exports of robusta coffee beans more than tripled year-on-year to 4.71 million bags in 2023 from 1.51 million bags seen in the previous year. Meanwhile, shipments of arabica coffee fell by 10% to 30.82 million bags.

Total shipments from Brazil, including roasted and soluble coffee, amounted to 39.25 million bags in 2023, almost unchanged from 39.41 million bags recorded a year earlier.

Chinese demand

The main buyers of Brazilian coffee between January and December 2023 were the US, Germany, and Italy. However, China showed the largest year-on-year growth in imports among the top 10 trading partners for Brazilian coffee, having increased by 279% to 1.48 million bags. The Asian country became Brazil’s sixth largest coffee buyer, compared with 20th place in 2022.

With Chinese coffee consumption growing rapidly, the country recently overtook the US in terms of the number of coffee shops.

Chinese demand could rise even further, according to Cecafe. The industry group plans to have permanent product lines of Brazilian coffee in all of Luckin’s coffee shops in China.

Jan 17 - Philippine and Indonesian desiccated coconut exports behind a year ago (IHSmarkit)

- 2% y/y fall in Philippine international sales
- Main importers of Indonesian desiccated coconut: Singapore and Russia
- Importers aiming to reduce inventories

Philippines and Indonesia closed the period from January-October 2023 with falling desiccated coconut exports, with factories working in full swing, confirming reports from processors such as Axelum that importers are slowing purchases as their inventories are at highs, particularly in the EU and the US. They aimed to secure service levels due to logistics disruptions in 2021 and 2022 and they are cutting stocks to reduce working capital once the supply is secured.

Philippine desiccated coconut exports fell by 2% year-on-year in volume to 130,280 metric tons and by 36% y/y in value to $207.5 million in January-October 2023. The main importers were the US and the Netherlands with 27,110 metric tons (-26% y/y) and 25,320 metric tons (-10% y/y), respectively.

Meanwhile, Indonesian exports were 61,379 metric tons (+14% y/y) valued at $115.3 million (-10% y/y) in January-October 2023. The main importers were Singapore and Russia, accounting for 29% and 7%, respectively.

Jan 16 - Walnut Update: Chilean prices have stabilized (IHSmarkit )

- 21% y/y increase in Californian shipments this December
- Chilean prices stagnant m/m
- 79% y/y increase in Chinese walnut exports 

Chilean prices have stabilized after starting a slight recovery for in-shells and are growing strongly for kernels, due to shortage of the latter.

Chile’s exports fell by 40% y/y to 8,730 metric tons (in-shell basis) this December, bringing seasonal sales (March-December) to 168,180 metric tons (-1% y/y). The main seasonal in-shell importers were India with 48,045 metric tons (+92% y/y) and Turkey with 22,900 metric tons (-20% y/y). Kernel exports reached 3,949 (+3% y/y), bringing seasonal international sales to 28,226 metric tons (-8% y/y). The main seasonal kernel purchasers were Spain with 4,738 metric tons (+20% y/y) and Italy with 4,000 metric tons (+13% y/y).

The Chilean industry has committed all the crop and will not have carry-over stocks this season. Growers and processors are waiting for February to start commercializing the new harvest in Gulfood (Dubai, 19-23 February 2024) with importers aiming to secure the supply during the Ramadan festival (10 March-9 April 2024).

Trading sources listed the following FOB prices for Chilean walnuts in December:
    In-shell, Chandler 30-34 mm: $2.35-2.60/kg, stagnant month-on-month and 24-27% more y/y
    In-shell, Chandler 34-36 mm: $3.35-3.50/kg, stagnant m/m and 20-29 % more y/y
    In-shell, Chandler over 36 mm: $4.10-4.30/kg, stagnant m/m and 34-37% y/y
    Kernel, ELLHP40: $6.00-6.25/kg, stagnant m/m and 30% more y/y
    Kernel, ELLHP80: $7.80-8.20/kg, stagnant m/m and 47-49% more y/

Jan 16 - Brazil's coffee exports nearly flat in 2023 - industry group
Brazil's green coffee exports ended 2023 nearly flat from the previous year, as vigorous growth in shipments of the robusta variety and China's increasing appetite for the beverage partially offset logistical hurdles, exporters association Cecafe said on Monday. Farmers exported a total of 35.53 million 60-kg bags of green coffee last year, 0.3% below the figure from 2022, Cecafe said.

Jan 16 - European cashew market reports good spot demand (IHSmarkit)

- Spot prices edging up slightly
- Replacement prices for cashew nut kernels also rising
- Shipment delays due to Red Sea troubles

The cashew nuts market has had an encouraging start to 2024 with noticeable spot demand and nearby inquiries, European brokers and traders report.

Dutch broker Global Trading & Agency noted: “This spot demand is causing slightly increasing prices, also because we are experiencing delays in shipments due to the trouble in the Red Sea area.”

The company added that replacement prices for cashew nut kernels are also increasing due to sea freight rates rising as shipping lines are opting for the safe route via South Africa instead of using the Suez Canal. This situation is expected to continue at least until Chinese New Year.

Global Trading recalled that 2023 was an interesting year. “Coming out of high inflation numbers in 2022 with decreasing consumer demand, demand is fortunately picking up again last year,” it added. Since prices are remain at very interesting levels, Global Trading expects this positive trend to continue during 2024 as there will be more interesting prices at retail level.

Raw cashew nut deliveries from the northern hemisphere will start in a couple of weeks and so far all is looking good.

Jan 15 - Indian turmeric prices continue to fall with harvest in full swing (IHSmarkit)

- 2-3% m/m fall in spot prices
- 10% y/y growth in exports
- Main importers: Bangladesh, the UAE and Morocco

Indian turmeric prices are gradually falling at a slow pace with the harvest in full swing.

The Indian spot fob unpolished turmeric price averaged 12,283.8 Indian rupees per quintal ($1,482/metric ton) at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, south-central) on 14 January 2024, 2% less month-on-month and 77% more year-on-year. The polished product averaged INR12,887.6/q on 15 December, 3% less m/m and 75% more y/y.

India’s global sales reached 148,270 metric tons, 9% more/y, worth $181.0 million (+1% y/y), in January-October 2023. The main importers were Bangladesh, the UAE and Morocco, taking 20%, 6% and 5%, respectively, of the volume.

The updated daily futures market prices on NCDEX were:
    Deliveries in December 2023 closed at INR12,392/q on 20 December, stagnant m/m
    INR12,938/q for deliveries in April 2024 (new crop) on 12 January, 15% less m/m
    INR13,056/q for deliveries in June 2024 (new crop) on 12 January, 17% less m/m.

Jan 12 - Domestic prices in Vietnam jump on tight supplies, shipment disruptions (Reuters)

-Vietnamese coffee prices rose this week tracking higher prices in London due to limited stocks, as farmers held off from selling amid shipping disruptions due to tensions in the Red Sea, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 69,800-72,000 dong ($2.85-$2.94) per kg, up from last week's 67,000-67,900 dong.
"It is very hard to buy (beans) now although all are rushing to buy," said a trader based in the coffee belt.
"Prices are climbing up every day and the disruption will not be solved anytime soon. Farmers are selling, but not in bulk."

- March robusta coffee LRCc2 has gained $164 in a week, at $2,950 per ton as of Wednesday, due to the conflict in the Red Sea which has disrupted shipping routes for the past weeks.
- Another trader said some were speculating beans, causing a more severe scarcity of beans on the market.
"Roasters in EU now have to pay the additional freight caused by this unexpected event while exporters here find it hard to ship beans to EU," the second trader added.

- Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a premium range of $70-$100 per ton to the March contract.
Vietnam exported 1.6 million metric tons of coffee in 2023, down 8.7% from 2022, government customs data showed. Export revenue for the period, however, rose 4.6% to $4.2 billion.

- In Indonesia, Sumatra coffee beans premiums fell to $550-$600 to the January-February contract, from last week's $600 premium.

Jan 11 - Ivorian cocoa grinding recovers despite lower production (IHSmarkit)

- Cocoa grinding rises 7% y/y in December
- Slight fall in cumulative processing
- Prices to remain high

Ivory Coast’s cocoa beans grinding totaled 62,682 metric tons in December, a 7% increase from 58,554 metric tons in the same month last year, according to the exporters' association GEPEX. This also represented a recovery from November, when the grindings fell to 46,818 metric tons, the first year-on-year drop since April.

However, cumulative cocoa processing in the first three months of the 2023-24 season (October-September) amounted to 169,953 metric tons of beans, 1.4% lower than the same period last year, due to the sharp drop in November.

Despite the lower production since the start of the new season, Ivory Coast’s cocoa grinding has proved to be resilient, as foreign companies increased their investment in expanding the country’s grinding capacity.

These figures also reveal a potential trend of increasing demand, which could keep prices at their already high levels.

Jan 11 - Guatemalan new crop cardamom prices remain high on lower volumes and quality issues (IHSmarkit)

- Quality issues on Guatemalan cardamom after delayed crop
- Gulfood could be a turning point for prices
- Indian cardamom suppliers benefiting from Guatemala’s problems

Guatemalan cardamom prices continue to be firm on reduced output and quality issues. Prolonged dry weather severely reduced yields for the 2023-24 crop which is forecast to reach only 30,000-32,000 metric tons versus an estimated 50,000-55,000 metric tons reached in 2022-23. This would equate to a 30-40% decline in production.

Albert Berisa of Rotterdam trader Catz International told S&P Global Commodity Insights: “The major problem is that for the green grades of cardamom, which are mostly used in the Middle East, there is an even smaller availability than of the grinding grades. Therefore, the green grades are increasing quite heavily in price and we also expect some further price increases shortly.”

S&P Global Commodity Insights prices data for 8 January listed Guatemalan
- bold green cardamom of approximately 8 mm size at $25,000 per metric ton CIF Middle East.
- Mixed yellow quality (MYQ) of minimum 360 grams per liter was at $13,500/t CIF any destination

- and seeds at $18,500/t CIF any destination.

Berisa said that as of 10 January the price on the

- bold green was now at $28,000/t CIF Middle East

- the MYQ was averaging $14,000/t CIF any destination.
- Seeds remained around $18,500/t CIF any destination.

Marco Van der Does of Van der Does Spice Brokers observed that there is not a major push from sellers currently. “They did what they wanted to then were closed for the holidays. Last week we asked them for some updates and they told us to wait for this week so they are not really pushing to sell,” he said.

Barker said no one can be sure of the extent of the decline in Guatemala’s 2023-24 crop and this will not become clear until after April or May this year when harvesting is due to finish. He added: “For sure the start of the crop was delayed and the quantity available has been reduced so that is the reason for the whole greens going up sharply in price. Because of the drought conditions in Guatemala earlier on this year (2023-24 season) the plants have been stressed and a lot of the seeds inside the pods are immature so the bulk density is going to be lower. Also, because of the drought conditions the amount of good quality green cardamoms – the full green color – is less proportionally so you are going to get more rejected material with the pale greens and the MYQ being produced for grinding. So in my opinion, the whole green colors will go up in price proportionally more than the pale greens and the grinding qualities.”

SpicExim expects Guatemala new crop arrivals to start picking up in terms of quantity and quality from the end of this month.

Jan 10 - Downgraded Indian chili crop estimate due to December rains (IHSmarkit)

- Around 10-15% of the production damaged
- Most affected areas: Andhra Pradesh and Telangana
- Indian farmers are slowing the initial processing of new ginger

Around 10-15% of the Indian chili orchards have been affected by cyclone Michaung this December, particularly in the areas of Andhra Pradesh (south) and Telangana (centre), according to the Indian processor Mane Kancor in its latest market update.

However, prices are slightly falling. Mane Kancor listed the following quote for 2023-24 5531 red chili: 170-180 Indian rupees per kg ($2.0-2.2/kg), 26-28% less year-on-year.

Farmers are delaying the initial processing of ginger as prices are at lows, with quotes for the old crop being at highs due to tightened supply.

Essential oils
Essential oil prices are following the trend driven by raw spices. As a result, quotes for nutmeg, clove, ginger and cardamom oils have a bullish trend. On the other hand, the price for turmeric oil is stabilized at around $25/kg.

Jan 10 - Ivorian cocoa arrivals remain low but unseasonal rains keep farmers optimistic ( IHSmarkit )

- Cocoa port arrivals down 35% y/y
- Sharp fall in weekly cocoa arrivals
- Unseasonal rainfall expected to boost harvest

Cumulative cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast’s ports, from the start of the 2023-24 season in October last year to 7 January, are estimated to have fallen by more than 35% year-on-year to 873,000 metric tons, according to exporters.

Cocoa producers in Western Africa have been struggling due to low prices for several years and rising production costs, which have lowered farmers’ margins and consequently production.

In terms of weekly arrivals, the amount registered for the period between 1 and 7 January fell considerably to 46,000 metric tons, after reaching 80,000 metric tons in the previous week. This was 47% lower than the 87,000 metric tons seen in the same week last year. Around 22,000 metric tons of beans were delivered to Abidjan port and 24,000 metric tons to San Pedro.

The country is in its dry season, which runs officially from mid-November to March, but Ivorian farmers remain optimistic about the harvest as they expect the current unseasonal rainfall to improve the quality of the beans, boosting both the main crop and the April-to-September mid-crop.

Jan 10 - Indian coffee exports set to surge thanks to global price rally
India's coffee exports are likely to rise as much as 10% in 2024 as a rally in global prices prompts European buyers to pay premiums in order to increase purchases from the country, industry officials told Reuters. The South Asian country - famous as a tea producer - is also the world's eighth-largest coffee grower, mainly churning out the robusta beans used to make instant coffee.

Jan 10 - Fall in Indian coriander seed prices with international stocks at highs (IHSmarkit)

- 5% m/m fall in spot prices
- China accounted for 46% of whole coriander exports
- Futures prices for 2023-24 crop behind INR8,000/quintal level

Indian coriander seed quotes for the 2023-24 crop are falling despite the projected drop in the planted area as there are still around 20,000 metric tons of carry-over stocks in eastern European markets, according to trading sources.

The Indian coriander seed spot price averaged 7,510 rupees/quintal ($903.7/metric ton) at the Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 9 January 2024, 5% less month-on-month and 17% less year-on-year, as traders are betting on a bullish trend due to the fall in the planted area for the 2023-24 season.

Indian exports reached 98,880 metric tons valued at $104.3 million in January-October 2023, up from 35,880 metric tons, worth $104.3 million (+74% y/y) in January-October 2023. October 2023 exports of non-processed coriander (90% of the total exported volume) reached tons 4,039 metric tons (76% more y/y), with Malaysia accounting for 25% (993 metric tons, +16% y/y).

The main importers of whole coriander were China, Malaysia and the UAE, accounting for 46%, 12% and 8%, respectively. 

Jan 09 - Strong increase in Brazilian sugar exports amid high production (IHSmarkit)

Brazilian sugar exports reached 3.85 million metric tons in December, a significant increase of 75% from 3.20 million in the same month a year ago and the highest since October 2020, the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) reported. This was also 5% more than the volume shipped in October.

That is not common, as sugar exports usually increase at the peak of the harvest in the center south region (August, September, and October), according to Marcelo Di Bonifacio Filho, analyst at StoneX. But he said that production in December was exceptionally good this time.

In addition, logistical issues in October, due to rainfall and competition with grains shipments, affected sugar exports and pushed volumes to December.

The average price of sugar and molasses exported in December last year was $529 per metric ton, 22% more than the previous year. December’s exports revenue increased to $2.04 billion, against $954 million a year ago.

Total sugar exports since the start of the 2023-24 season in April have risen to around 26.4 million metric tons, 16% higher year-on-year, as the world’s biggest producer and exporter sells production from what is expected to be a record harvest.

The main destinations of Brazilian sugar during December were China, India, and Malaysia, taking 17%, 13%, and 8%, respectively, of the volume.

In 2023, the South American country shipped a total of 31.39 million metric tons of sugar, up 15% from 27.25 million exported in 2022. The revenue increased 43% y/y to $15.7 billion.

The prospects for 2024 are positive with Brazilian sugar exports expected to be even higher than in 2023, as sugarcane crushing will likely remain used more for sugar production than for ethanol, according to Filho. However, growing production raises new concerns over logistical bottlenecks at the country’s ports.

Jan 09 - Increase in Chinese peanut prices due to Red Sea disruptions (IHSmarkit)

- Increase in the yuan exchange value against US dollar
- Uncertainty in the Argentinian peanut industry due to tax exports
- Brazilian carry-over stocks dependent on Chinese purchases

The bumper Chinese peanut production was favoring easing prices in international markets although disruptions in the Red Sea traffic have forced exporters to avoid this route, raising their quotations, according to the US trader Alimenta Agri in its latest market update. In addition, the yuan exchange value has strengthened against the US dollar and Chinese oil processors are launching new orders, particularly since the Argentinian government announced a 15% export tax increase on peanuts (based on FOB prices), after maintaining the withdrawal for others such as garlic or honey.

However, Alimenta Agri considers that the Argentinian export tax might be reversed as the current political party in power has a very low parliamentary representation (15% of the total). This tax increase must be ratified and it might be equivalent to $250/metric ton. “Nevertheless, considering the economic situation of Argentina, I believe it is a foregone conclusion that there will be an export tax on peanuts, the question is what percentage,” the general manager of Alimenta Agri, Alex Izmirlian, said.

Currently, the Argentinian peanut industry is negotiating with the government to lower this rate.
Brazil

Brazilian plantings have concluded. Exporters still have high carry-over stocks although they are not within the permitted EU maximum residue limits (MRLs) hence leaving China as the main purchaser. However, Chinese orders are at lows, and peanut oil exports are 35% lower than in the previous season.


Jan 08 - Red Sea crisis damages nut and dried fruit sea traffic in Turkey-Asia and Asia-Europe (IHSmarkit)

- Turkey nut and dried fruit exports to the Middle East through the Suez Canal
- MSC, Hapag Lloyd, Maersk Line and CMA CGM rerouting through the Cape of Good Hope
- Panama Canal Authority has softened restrictions

The sea shipping restrictions in the Red Sea are raising concerns about Turkish dried fruit nut traffic to the Middle East and those of nuts and dried fruit between Asia and the EU.

The previous trade conflicts and logistics bottlenecks due to the Covid-19 pandemic restrictions unveiled weak points of global supply chains if another major problem arose in international markets, forcing all players to develop more flexibility and build up inventories to secure supply after decades of stable economic ties.

Once the Covid-19 pandemic restrictions concluded, the Russia-Ukraine war started threatening the global grain, sunflower and fertilizer supply due to the combination of logistics bottlenecks and international sanctions against Russia. Currently, the hot scenario is the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks against vessels in the Bab al-Mandab Strait (Yemen), key to access the Suez Canal, used by around 10% of sea shipping traffic, particularly from Far East and the Middle East as this route saves around 10,000 km compared with that between the latter and the EU through the Grace Cap (South Africa) and around 10-days timeframe. The drought in Central America due to the El Nino climatic pattern has imposed restrictions also although its authority has softened them recently. They are currently affecting liquid bulks and oil although a key diary supplier such as Danone has announced it is starting to diverge some shipments to the US and South American west coasts through the Horn Cape.

The US is leading the so-called Operation Prosperity Guardian to secure traffic in the Red Sea, mirroring Operation Atalanta on the Pacific Ocean close to the Somali coast to halt piracy since 2008. Whatever is the success of Prosperity Guardian, the main sea shipping companies are raising their fees for traffics between Asia and the EU as they have started to diverge traffic into the Grace Cape. These changes might increase sea shipping services between West Africa, East Africa and the EU although it is damaging severely the following product categories and origins:

- Philippines, Indonesian and Sri Lankan desiccated coconut exports to the EU
- Chinese peanut exports to the EU
- Dehydrated tropical (Thailand and Vietnam, mainly) fruit to the EU

Turkish exports of dried fruit and nuts (pistachios, particularly) to the Middle East and Far East, particularly during the Ramadan festival. Turkey is taking part in several projects to build solid road and rail connections with Iraq and the UAE, using Dubai as a hinterland for its food exports. However, this project is far from being realised, and its exports rely on sea freight cargo through the Suez Canal.

MSC, Hapag Lloyd, Maersk and CMA CGM, the main European sea shipping companies offering services between Asia and the EU have announced changes in their routes, raising fees, offsetting the bearish trend seen in previous months due to the container oversupply and sluggish demand in the EU. Currently, prices for 40-feet containers between China and Rotterdam range from $3,500-4,000, up from $1,500-1,800/40-ft last November.

Jan 05 - Chocolate suppliers accused of sourcing cocoa from Nigeria's protected forests - DJ/AP

- The European Union, the largest market for cocoa from West Africa, will begin implementing its new regulation this year on deforestation-free products that require companies selling commodities, including cocoa, to prove they have not caused deforestation – and while the spotlight has focussed on issues related to farming in Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana, it has emerged that neighbouring Nigeria also has a problem. According to World Bank trade data and Nigeria’s export council, more than 60% of Nigeria’s cocoa heads to Europe and approximately 8% to the United States and Canada. Experts at the Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria said they are launching a ‘Trace Project’ in six southern states to advance compliance against deforestation in cocoa production and ensure the country’s cocoa is not rejected in Europe.

- But in a significant investigation by the Associated Press (AP), Rasheed Adedeji, who leads the institute’s research outreach, said: “From the preliminary data collected, major exporters are implicated in deforestation, and it is their responsibility to ensure compliance with standards .”
AP reporters said they have repeatedly documented farmers harvesting cocoa beans where that work is banned in conservation areas of Omo Forest Reserve, a protected tropical rainforest 135 kilometres (84 miles) northeast of the coastal city of Lagos in southwestern Nigeria.

- Cocoa from the conservation zone is purchased by some of the world’s largest cocoa traders, according to AP, including Singapore-based food supplier ofi (Olam Group) and Nigeria’s Starlink Global and Ideal Limited, along with Tulip Cocoa Processing Ltd, a subsidiary of Dutch cocoa trader and producer Theobroma.
“Those companies supply Nigerian cocoa to some of the world’s largest chocolate manufacturers, including Mars Inc. and Ferrero, but because the chocolate supply chain is so complex and opaque, it’s not clear if cocoa from deforested parts of Omo Forest Reserve makes it into the sweets that they make, such as Snickers, M&Ms, Butterfinger and Nutella. Mars and Ferrero list farming sources on their websites that are close to or overlap with the forest but do not provide specific locations ,” the AP report stated.

- Ofi said that it “forbids ” members of its ‘Ore Agbe Ijebu’ farmer group from “sourcing from protected areas and important natural ecosystems like forests .” AP said the Ijebu farmer group is listed as a sustainable supplier on Olam’s website and is said to be in Ijebu Ife, a community near the reserve. Ferrero, Mars, and Tulip have issued statements that they’re committed to their anti-deforestation policies, use GPS mapping of farms, and that their suppliers are certified through independent standards.

Jan 05 - Czarnikow expects small global sugar surplus helped by Brazil weather
Czarnikow on Thursday forecast a small global sugar surplus of 1.6 million metric tons for the current 2023/24 season due to favourable weather in top producer Brazil and rains in the latter half of the season in Thailand. The trader and supply chain services company expects sugar production will total 179.7 million tons in 2023/24, up 1.3 million tons from its December forecast.

Jan 04 - ASIA COFFEE-Vietnam trading slows post holidays, Indonesia flat

- Major Asian coffee markets saw little activity amid low demand for Vietnamese robusta beans this week, traders said on Thursday, while Indonesian premiums were unchanged on limited stockpiles. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 67,000-67,900 dong ($2.75-$2.79) per kg, slightly narrowing from last week's 67,000-68,500 dong.
"Demand from international buyer is not high, buyers are mostly local roasters now," said a trader based in the coffee belt.
"Farmers are releasing beans bit by bit, not in bulk. They only sell beans when they need money," the trader added.

- March robusta coffee has fallen $86 this week since resuming trade after the New Year holidays, having closed at $2,755 per metric ton on Wednesday.

- Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a premium range of $70-$100 per ton to the March contract, compared with last week's $20-$40 premiums. Coffee exports from Vietnam are estimated to have fallen 9.6% in 2023 from a year earlier to 1.6 million tons, government data showed, although export revenue rose 3.1% to $4.2 billion.

- Meanwhile, Indonesia exported 12,962.36 tons of robusta beans from Sumatra in November, official data showed, down 77.5% from the same month last year. Shipments also edged lower on a monthly basis. In Lampung province, robusta beans were offered at around $600 premium to February to March contracts, similar to the January to February contracts offered last week, one trader said.
"There is virtually no more beans so the premium is not coming down just yet," the trader said.

Robusta coffee harvest in the southern region of Sumatra typically gradually starts from around March to April. A farmer in Western Lampung district said coffee cherries are currently "the size of a crab's eyes".

Jan 04 - Red Sea disruptions extend pause in Indian peanut shipments to EU after Christmas (IHSmarkit)

- Sharp increase in sea traffics through Suez Canal
- Affected markets: EU, North Africa and the Middle East
- Chinese imports at lows

Indian sales of peanuts to the Middle East and North Africa have not recovered after Christmas festivities due to current Red Sea disruptions, the Indian processor M. Lakhamsi reported in its latest market update.

Sea freight fees have increased sharply and all players in these markets are waiting for January-February to launch new orders.

Chinese purchases are also slowed although Vietnamese, Indonesian and Malaysian orders are working as usual. On the other hand, Argentinian and Brazilian prices are at highs, allowing India to have a high market share in the Far East.

The domestic demand is still high, making it hard for prices to fall.
M. Lakhamsi listed the following FOB prices for Indian peanuts (Non EU cargo due to additional fees after Houthi attacks):

    Bold 38/42:     $1,330 per metric ton, 3% less than in October
    Bold 40/50:     $1,275/metric ton, 5% less
    Bold 50/60:     $1,255/metric ton, 5% less
    Java Type 50/60:     $1,265/metric ton, 9% less
    Java Type 60/70:     $1,255/metric ton, 8% less
    Java Type 80/90:     $1,240/metric ton, 6% less
    Blanched Whole 40/50: $1,570/metric ton, 8% less
    Blanched Whole 50/60: $1,535/metric ton, 7% less
    Blanched Split 40/50: $1,525/metric ton, 8% less
    Blanched Split 50/60: $1,500/metric ton, 7% less 

Blanched peanuts are vacuum packed in 25 kg bags with outer pp bags.

Jan 03 - Sri Lankan coconut milk exports overtake desiccated coconut (IHSmarkit)

- 13% y/y fall in desiccated coconut exports in January-November 2023
- Fall in local prices for raw coconuts
- Different price trends for fine and medium desiccated coconut in the local market

The Sri Lankan coconut industry is raising its coconut milk shipments against desiccated coconut.

Sri Lanka’s desiccated coconut exports fell by 13% year-on-year in volume to 34,520 metric tons and by 25% in value to $66.8 million in January-November 2023. The main importers were India, the UAE and Iraq, which accounted for 19%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of the volume.

The fresh price averaged 75.8 Sri Lankan rupees ($0.23) per coconut in coconut auctions held on 21 December, 8% less month-on-month and 7% less y/y. 

Wholesale desiccated coconut prices ranged from LKR560-565/kg for fine (-3% month-on-month) and medium (+5% m/m), in the week ending on 14 December.

Exports of coconut milk rose by 8% y/y to 51,809 metric tons value at LKR25.6 billion (-2% y/y); coconut milk powder fell by 3% y/y in volume to 7,657 metric tons and by 2% y/y in value to LKR12.0 billion.

Jan 03 - Bumper Chinese crop is slowing imports of African peanuts (IHSmarkit)

- Sudan’s peanut crop expected to fall by 40% y/y
- Low Chinese demand is driving prices
- Ramadan festival is around the corner

African peanut sales are slowed due to the combination of a disappointing Sudanese crop and low Chinese imports as a consequence of a bumper domestic supply, according to the Indian peanut and processor Pnutking in its latest market update.

Sudan’s peanut crop is expected to fall by 40% year-on-year, with prices stabilized at $1,050-1,190/metric ton FOB.

Middle East importers are starting to launch offers to cover the supply during the Ramadan festival, although it is early to see if this trend might be a game changer for Sudanese prices due to logistics bottlenecks in the Red Sea as a consequence of Houthi attacks from the Yemen coast.

Meanwhile, Senegalese peanut quotes hiked by 520-560 West African francs ($0.67-0.93) per kilo despite low international demand, as the government is close to banning temporary exports to secure domestic supply.

Jan 03 - Fall in Indian guar gum prices steepens (IHSmarkit)

- 5% m/m fall in spot prices
- 75% y/y fall in guar gum exports in January-July 2023
- 6-7% m/m fall in futures prices for deliveries from December 2023-June 2024

Guar gum prices are still falling, once the guar seed harvest has concluded. However, the long-term price trend is bullish as the crop has fallen by 13% year-on-year.

India’s guar gum spot price averaged 11,025 Indian rupees per quintal ($1,323/metric ton) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 26 December 2023, 5% less month-on-month and 13% less y/y.

Indian guar gum exports fell by 75% y/y in volume to 52,075 metric tons and in value to $104.3 million in January-October 2023. The main importers were the US (14,289 metric tons, -76% y/y); Russia (10,249 metric tons, -67% y/y) and Germany (5,798 metric tons, -78% y/y).

Jan 02 - Sri Lanka records slight rise in cinnamon exports in January-October 2023 (IHSmarkit)

- Total export volumes of cinnamon reached 14,639 metric tons over the 2023 period
- Lower shipments to the US though
- Marginal gain in exports to Peru

Sri Lanka maintained a good level of cinnamon exports in the first 10 months of 2023 with its total volumes nearly 1% up from those of 2022. Customs data shows that the Asian country shipped a total of 14,639 metric tons of cinnamon between January-October 2023, 0.98% up from the 14,498 metric tons reached in the same period of 2022.

Sri Lanka’s cinnamon exports to top destination Mexico increased 13% y/y to 6,396 metric tons (5,657 metric tons in January-October 2022). Volumes shipped to second leading market the US fell 29.6% over the 2023 period to 1,755 metric tons (2,494 metric tons in the first 10 months of 2022).

Peru was next with 1,742 metric tons, an increase of 3.5% from the 1,683 metric tons purchased by this destination in the January-October 2022 period.

In the complete calendar year of 2022 Sri Lanka exported 17,600 metric tons of cinnamon, a marginal decline of 2.8% from its 2021 shipments of 18,114 metric tons.

Mexico, the US and Peru also ranked as the top three destinations in the full 2022 year.

Jan 02 - Chinese peanut suppliers benefit from shortages in rival origins (IHSmarkit)

Chinese peanut suppliers reported strong demand from the EU ahead of the Christmas break and this is expected to continue over the coming weeks due to the supply shortages from south America and the US and China’s own large 2023-24 production. In a report issued on 23 December 2023 Hebei Cofco Rotterdam observed that all export factories have received a much higher volume of orders than in the past and are producing at full capacity in the hope of recovering losses they suffered in previous years, particularly during the period when the sea freight cost was extremely high.

“However, starting from December, the collection prices are increasing. As we mentioned many times in our reports, the Chinese peanut market is very sensitive and determined by big oil crushers. These factories started to increase their purchase prices from the end of November, thus we see collection price increases with almost $200 per (metric) ton in three weeks of time,” the company explained.

Hebei Cofco Rotterdam added that the weather is also not helping, with the temperature in the main peanut belt decreasing quickly. In Jilin and Liaoning provinces (the main sources for peanuts to the EU) the temperature is already below -25°C. Heavy snow is making the movement of goods by land increasingly difficult.

Escalation in sea freight costs

The company also warned that “like pouring oil on fire”, a combination of increasing export demand and instability in the Middle East caused the sea freight rates to rise in December and these will continue to be sky high in January. The price for the first half of January is expected to be around $2,500 for 20 ft. containers and $4,000 for 40 ft. containers.

Hebei Cofco Rotterdam expects a lot of factories to try to delay their shipments this month in the hope that sea freight costs will decline from the second half of January. “However, given the current situation, the chances are small,” the company warned. “The Chinese New Year will be on 10 February 2024, factories will be closed for two-three weeks. Sea freight costs will most likely start to drop from March and onwards.”

Hebei Cofco Rotterdam pointed out that one of the trends of the sector in more recent years is that the major oil crushers are participating in the peanut future markets to optimise their profits.

“On one side they still have stocks of mainly peanut oil in the tanks. Sales for oil is not as good as what they were in the past and the peanut cakes are also under the cost prices, so they do not have more urgent demand for raw materials. They are still collecting small volumes of raw material and with higher standards, aiming at the intention to make both the spot and future market bullish, so that some small players in future markets are chasing to rise. As soon as these big crushers have obtained their estimated margin, they will probably settle their profit and press the spot market down again. This means the market in the future is still uncertain,” the company explained.

Hebei Cofco Rotterdam announced that it will continue to monitor the situation after Chinese New Year.

Dec 30 - Asia coffee: Markets tepid amid year-end holidays (Reuters)

- Year-end holidays subdued coffee trading in Asia, where farmers were reluctant to release beans, while premiums in Indonesia rose due to beans scarcity, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam’s largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 67,000-68,500 dong ($2.76-$2.82) per kg, down from last week’s 69,700-70,200 dong range.
“Both demand and supply are weak this week as international traders have entered holidays while farmers are not selling,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.
“Farmers are now cultivating fruit trees such durian and passion fruit alongside coffee trees so they are have multiple sources of income and don’t have much pressure to release beans,” the trader added.

- Another trader said supplies had been scarce over the past six months. “The prices are too high now. It’s challenging to buy beans at the moment,” the trader said. “Most deals sealed in the past two-three months were to fulfil signed contracts of the previous crop season.”

- March robusta coffee settled up $32 to $2,869 in a week, as of Wednesday’s close. Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a premium range of $20-$40 per tonne to the March contract, down from $60-$70 premium last week.

- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at a premium of $600 per tonne this week to the January-February, compared with $540-550 premium a week ago. “Coffee stock is declining so the prices remain high,” one trader said..


Dec 29 - Indian cumin seed prices continue to fall due to sharp increase in the planted area (IHSmarkit)

- 15% m/m fall in spot prices
- China has not recorded imports in September
- Futures prices for the new crop have been below the INR33,000/quintal level

Indian cumin seed spot prices averaged 39,313 Indian rupees per quintal ($4,718/metric ton) at the Unjha market (Gujarat, northwest) on 15 December 2023, 15% less month-on-month and 47% more year-on-year.

Farmers have expanded the planted area strongly due to record prices in the 2022-23 season, all players expecting a bumper crop. About 376,000 hectares was sown under cumin seed as on 4 December in Gujarat compared with 144,000 ha of the previous year. 

Indian cumin seed exports reached 117,389 metric tons valued at $461.4 million in January-September 2023, 23% less y/y in volume and 18% more y/y in value, according to customs data. China, Bangladesh and the US were the main importers of whole cumin seeds (94% of the exported volume), accounting for 31%, 20% and 5%, respectively, of the volume.

China was the driver of export growth from January-April but record prices have slowed its purchases. As soon as China has halted imports this September (0 records), the price has plummeted


Dec 29 - Vietnam 2023 coffee exports down 9.6% y/y at 1.6 mln T – govt (Reuters)

- Coffee exports from Vietnam are estimated to have fallen 9.6% in 2023 from a year earlier to 1.6 million metric tons, government showed on Friday.

- Coffee export revenue for Vietnam, the world's biggest producer of the robusta bean, rose 3.1% to $4.2 billion in the year, the government's General Statistics Office said in a report.

Dec 27 - Nutmeg harvesting moving ahead in Vietnam (IHSmarkit)

- Good demand seen from China and India
- Vietnamese cassia also attracting keen buying
- Concerns for ginger crop

Nutmeg harvesting is currently at its peak in Vietnam. The rainy season has started in some main growing areas. There is a consistent demand from Chinese and Indian buyers, particularly for mace, trade sources report.

 

Cassia
Vietnam’s autumn season for cassia is coming to an end.

Trade sources report that until October 2023 Vietnam’s cassia exports were 22% higher than those of the same period in 2022. Demand came from India, which is still the most active buyer in the Vietnam market, followed by Europe (down by 13%) and the US (up by 7%).

One trade source added: “Indonesia’s cassia market is slow and quiet due to less demand.”

 

Ginger
There is concern related to the overall ginger crop in Vietnam, which has been impacted due to poor fertilizer application and pests.

 

Pepper
Vietnam is in its coffee season and will start harvesting pepper in January 2024.

Brazil is facing a dry season linked with El Nino, which will negatively impact the forthcoming crop by reducing its production in 2024.

Until November 2023, Vietnam pepper exports were up by 15% compared with 2022, trade sources reported. China has been the largest market for Vietnam pepper so far. Vietnam’s pepper exports to the US and Europe were down by 16% and 3%, respectively, compared with the same period last year.

Until October 2023, Brazil’s pepper exports were down by 14% from those of the same period last year.

Vietnam is the largest buyer of Brazil pepper, followed by the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan.

 

Green chilis/jalapeño
The 2023 summer harvest closed on 2 November. Weather conditions were not optimal in 2023, with an unseasonably cold spring, a surprise late frost through the summer, and record-high temperatures in August and September.

In the face of economic uncertainty, the pepper growers in the southwest chose to be risk averse, resulting in a decision to plant fewer speculative acres than normal and adhere strictly to contracted amounts.

The sentiment among growers regarding peppers is quite delicate.

One trade source commented: “It has been a challenging year, marked by weather-related issues, labor shortages, and rising input costs. The quality of incoming produce was high, with a 99.4% acceptance rate.”


Dec 26 - Sugarcane crushing in Brazil’s center south remains well above last season’s level (IHSmarkit)

- Sugarcane processing rises 244% y/y in the first half of December
- Almost 100 more mills in operation than last season
- Sharp year-on-year increase in sugar production

Brazil’s sugarcane crush production in the center south rose 244.3% year-on-year to 19.083 million metric tons in the first half of December, according to data from the Brazilian sugar and ethanol industry group Unica. This brought total sugarcane processing since the start of the 2023-24 season in April to 638.39 million metric tons, an increase of nearly 18.3% from 539.68 million registered in the same period a year ago.

A total of 184 mills were operating by 16 December, against 85 mills in the same period last year. Around 162 mills have finished the seasonal production since the start of 2023-24. Over the next two weeks, another 83 plants are expected to finish operations.

The amount of recoverable sugars per metric ton of cane (ATR) fell 18.8% year-on-year to an average of 1117.15 kilograms, while the cumulative amount fell 0.61% y/y to 139.54 kg/t of sugarcane.

Sugar’s share of the crush for H1December rose to 43.41%, compared with 39.74% a year earlier.

As a result, sugar production totaled 924,658 metric tons in the first half of December, a 205.39% increase from around 303,000 metric tons in the same period last season. The cumulative amount reached 41.746 million metric tons, 25.16% more year-on-year.

On the ethanol side, some 30.871 billion liters were produced between 1 April and 16 December, up from 27.164 billion in 2022-23. Of the total, 4.33 billion liters were made from corn, an increase of 41.9% y/y.


Dec 22 - Asia coffee: Domestic prices jump in Vietnam as farmers delay selling (Reuters)

- Vietnam's domestic coffee prices rose on Thursday, compared with last week, as supplies tightened after farmers refrained from selling the bean in hopes that prices would rise further, traders said. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for VND69,700-70,200 ($2.86-$2.89) per kg, up from last week's VND63,500-66,000.
"Domestic prices reached a record high this week but trade is not robust as farmers are not selling. Beans are scarce," said a trader based in the coffee belt.

- According to the trader, prior to the harvest, some farmers made deals to sell new beans at VND58,000 per kg.
"Prices have risen significantly since, forcing some to delay deliveries of sealed contracts," the trader said, adding farmers had finished picking beans and were drying them.
March robusta coffee LRCc2 gained $73 to $2,870 in a week, as of Wednesday's close.

- Another trader said the higher price this week was in line with the increase in the London terminal due to the disruption of shipping via the Suez Canal.

- Traders offered 5-percent black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a premium range of $60-$70 to the March contract, up from the $40-$60 premium range last week.
Another trader quoted a $160 premium to the January contract.

- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at a $540-$550 premium this week to the January-February contract, unchanged from last week. The price is adjusting to volatility in the London price terminal and to the depleted stockpile, one trader said.


Dec 20 - Sesame Seed Update (IHSmarkit)

- African origins are driving a bearish price trend from December onwards
- Brazil has become main India’s supplier
- 6% y/y increase in Ethiopian exports

International prices for sesame seeds are easing around as African origins (Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Mozambique) are starting to ship their new crops and sea shipping services between Nigeria and Central Asia have fallen to three weeks, going back to pre-Covid timeframes. African sesame seeds have fallen by $100 per metric ton on average between November-December. However, the Houthi attacks to vessels crossing the Bab al-Mandab Strait into the Red Sea have made the main sea shipping companies to halt traffics in this area, key for Sudan and Ethiopia.


India
The disappointing Indian sesame production has fueled imports of African seeds, although the domestic demand is flat, according to the Indian trader M. Lakhamsi in its latest market update.
Indian importers have purchased around 30,000 metric tons of Nigerian sesame seeds from September-October 2024 with shipments to be delivered from November-December. These shipments might cut quotes in the Indian market.


Ethiopia and Sudan

Ethiopia and Sudan are offering their new crops, although the former is still suffering logistics bottlenecks. Prices for Ethiopian and Nigerian sesame seeds have fallen by $100 per metric ton between November-December. The sea shipping timeframe between India and Nigeria has fallen to around three weeks.
Spot prices averaged 17,200 (2,064/metric ton) in the Unjha (Gujarat, Northwest) wholesale market on 15 December, 5% less m/m and 4% more year-on-year. Futures prices also followed a bearish trend, ranging from INR17,000-17,400/quintal for deliveries from December 2023-February 2024, 9% less m/m.

Meanwhile, M. Lakhamsi listed the following quotes:
    Natural Whitish 99-1-1 : $1,980/metric ton, $15 more than in October
    Natural Whitish Sortex, min 99.95 % purity: $2,090/metric ton, $30 less than in October
    Natural Jet Black Sortex, min 99.95 % purity: $2,235/metric ton, 2% more m/m 
    Hulled Sesame, min 99.95 % purity: $2,340/metric ton, $10 less than in October
    Hulled Sesame, min 99.97 % purity : $2,360/metric ton, $5 less than in October.

Indian exports fell by 5% y/y to 181,027 metric tons but grew by 13% y/y to $380.9 million in January-September 2023. The main importers were South Korea (17,445 metric tons, -53% y/y); the US (13,529 metric tons, +6% y/y) and China (13,068 metric tons, -14% y/y).

Indian imports reached 74,410 metric tons in January-September 2023, up from 15,540 metric tons in the same period in 2022. The main suppliers were Sudan and Brazil, accounting for 42% and 39%, respectively.


China
China’s imports fell by 19% y/y to 779,000 metric tons in January-October 2023. Niger, Tanzania and Togo were the main suppliers, accounting for 21%, 16% and 13%, respectively.

Niger (West Africa) has supplied around 160,000 metric tons to China in January-October, strengthening its role as the main supplier and cutting market share to other African origins such as Sudan or Ethiopia, despite the political instability in the former.


Sudan
Sudanese exporters are offering white sesame seeds at $1,750/metric ton FOB currently, down from $2,250/metric ton in November. The sesame origins are controlled by the army and rebel fighters were not focused on stealing them to sell them in the domestic market as they do with staples such as peanuts, Fares Oufi, commercial director at FAAS Trade and Investment, UK, which represents Africorp International, explained to S&P Global Commodity Insights.


Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s exports rose by 6% y/y to 104,280 metric tons in January-November 2023. The main importers were Israel, the UAE and Turkey, accounting for 36%, 18% and 10%, respectively.
Whitish Wollega grade 3-5 averaged $2,030/metric ton FOB Djibouti this November, 6% more m/m and 29% more y/y.


Brazil
Brazil started to expand the sesame planted area under Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency (2019-23), after signing a trade deal with India. However, Brazilian exports to this Asian market have been at lows until 2022, starting a gradual increase in 2023. Brazil’s exports reached 142,234 metric tons in January-November 2023, up from 36,260 metric tons in January-November 2022. The main importers were India, Turkey and Guatemala accounting for 38%, 23% and 14%, respectively.


Outlook
New crops in Nigeria, Ethiopia, Mozambique and Tanzania have secured the global supply. In addition, the expansion in the Chinese crop and huge carry-over stocks kept by Sudan, due to logistics bottlenecks as a consequence of the civil war, are drawing a promising supply outlook.

However, the Houthi attacks to vessels in the Read Sea are a game changer for the Ethiopian and Sudanese supply.


Dec 19 - Indian cumin seed futures dragged down by weak exports (IHSmarkit)

- Positive progress with sowings is also a bearish influence
- Turmeric losses viewed as limited
- Guar seed and gum pushed up by shrinking supplies

Indian cumin seed (jeera) futures slumped about 6% tracking reports of sluggish exports, SMC Global Securities observed in its Commodity Daily Report (Agri) of 19 December.

The firm noted that Indian cumin seed exports tumbled to 6,200 metric tons in October 2023 against the 11,700 metric tons reached in the same month a year ago. India’s total cumin seed exports for the 2023-24 season to the end of October were reported to be 34% lower than those reached in the same period of the 2022=23 season.

SMC Global Securities said the movement in cumin seed prices is expected to track cues from sowing progress, which, based on the provided information, is running smoothly due to favorable weather conditions. “Favorable weather is crucial for a successful crop, and it seems to be positively impacting the sowing progress,” the firm added.

About 433,000 hectares was sown under cumin seed as of 11 December in Gujarat compared with 224,000 ha of the previous year. Similarly, about 6,600 ha was sown under cumin seed in Rajasthan so far versus 5,600 ha of the previous year.

SMC Global Securities predicted that cumin seed is likely to trade in a range of 35,000-41,000 rupees ($421.30-493.52) per quintal.


Turmeric
Indian turmeric futures are currently facing pressure due to muted domestic demand. In addition, sluggish export inquiries at prevailing rates are contributing to negative market sentiments.

Exports dropped to 10,310 metric tons in October 2023 compared with 11,170 metric tons in the same month of the previous year. “Despite the current challenges, the losses in turmeric futures are expected to be limited. This is attributed to the bleak production prospects for the upcoming season, which acts as a supporting factor for the market. Expectations of a fall in production for the marketing year 2024-25 are mentioned as a positive factor for the turmeric market. The estimated production decline of 10%-12% adds to the overall bullish sentiment,” SMC Global Securities noted.

Turmeric April futures are projected to trade in a range of INR14,100-15,000/quintal. “This provides a specific range within which market participants can anticipate price movements,” SMC Global Securities noted.


Coriander seed
Coriander seed (dhaniya) prices declined due to profit booking at the futures platform supported by muted buying in the domestic market.

Coriander seed prices are expected to trade with a positive bias, primarily due to slower sowing progress for the forthcoming season. Sowing activities for coriander seed this year are slower compared with those of 2022. In Gujarat, only 108,000 ha were sown as of 11 December, whereas it was 207,000 ha in the previous year. Similarly, in Rajasthan, about 47,200 ha were sown compared with 50,000 ha in the previous year.

SMC Global Securities expects coriander seed prices to trade in a range of INR7,100-7,600/quintal.


Mentha oil
Mentha oil prices are expected to trade on a negative note primarily due to limited buying in the domestic market.

In addition, the sluggish export demand for mentha oil and menthol is identified as a factor putting pressure on prices. The export of menthol and mentha oil from India declined 15.9% y/y to 7,300 metric tons and 19% y/y to 1,060 metric tons, respectively during the period from April 2023 to October 2023.

SMC Global Securities predicted that mentha oil is likely to trade in a range of INR915-950.


Guar seed and guar gum
Guar seed futures are expected to trade higher due to shrinking supplies in the market.

“The slower pace of arrivals is prompting millers to buy at prevailing rates, given the improved crush margin with the rise in guar meal prices,” SMC Global Securities noted.

Indian guar gum exports increased in October 2023 as India exported about 23,000 metric tons of guar gum against the 21,500 metric tons in the same month last year.

Rising seasonal demand for guar meal is expected to keep the crushing demand for guar seed higher in the coming weeks. Overall, the production of guar seed has seen a decline of 11%-13% y/y in 2022-23, contributing to tighter inventory levels for millers.

Guar seed prices are expected to trade in range of INR5,250-5,600/quintal whereas guar gum will trade in a range of INR10,300-11,000/quintal.


Dec 19 - Coffee firms turning away from Africa as EU deforestation law looms
Importers of coffee to the European Union are starting to scale back purchases from small farmers in Africa and beyond as they prepare for a landmark EU law that will ban the sale of goods linked to the destruction of forests, a cause of climate change. Industry sources said the cost and difficulty of complying with the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which comes into force late in 2024, meant it was already having unintended impacts that could in time reshape global commodities markets.

 

Dec 15 - ASIA COFFEE-Supplies remain limited in Vietnam as farmers refrain from selling (Reuters)

- Trading activities in the coffee market remained lacklustre in Vietnam on depleted supplies as farmers refrained from selling in the hope of higher prices, traders said on Thursday, while premiums narrowed in Indonesia. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 63,500 dong-66,000 dong ($2.62-$2.72) per kg, higher than last week's 59,900 dong-60,500 dong range.
"Farmers are not selling now," a trader based in the coffee belt said. "Prices keep rising so they are holding off eyeing for bigger gains."

- The trader said farmers may release beans in bulk from late December to cash in for the upcoming Lunar New Year.
Another trader said farmers had already done picking cherries and were drying beans.
March robusta coffee LRCc2 rose $228 to $2,769 in a week, as of Wednesday's close, the highest level since July, LSEG data showed.

- Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a premium range of $40-$60 to the March contract.
Vietnam's coffee exports in the first 11 months of 2023 were 1.4 million metric tons, down 10.4% from a year earlier, official data showed. Coffee export revenue for the period reached $4.33 billion, up 0.4% against J
anuary-November of 2022.

- Premiums on Indonesia's Sumatran robusta narrowed this week to account for the increase in the benchmark coffee prices in London, traders in Lampung province said. Beans for January delivery were offered with $500 premium, down from $600 premium last week, one trader said.
Another trader offered a $550 premium for January-February contracts this week, down from around $710-$720 premium the trader offered last week for December-January contract.
"This is because the prices in London rose for three days straight. Meanwhile there are not that many beans coming in lately," the trader said.


Dec 14 - Ivorian cashew exports reach record levels (IHSmarkit)

- 25% y/y increase in raw cashew nut exports
- 39% y/y growth in processed cashew exports
- Main importers of processed cashews: the US, the Netherlands and Turkey

Ivory Coast’s in-shell cashew exports between January-November 2023 rose by 25% y/y in volume to 962,521 metric tons and by 27% y/y in value to $1.03 billion. The main importers were Vietnam (756,081 metric tons, +67% y/y) and India (187,610 metric tons, -33%y/y), accounting for 79% and 20%, respectively.

Ivorian processed cashew exports rose by 39% y/y in volume to 42,071 metric tons and by 32% y/y in value to $189.3 million from January-November 2023. The main importers were the US (5,731 metric tons, +6% y/y), the Netherlands (5,695 metric tons, +42% y/y) and Turkey (4,829 metric tons, +104% y/y), accounting for 14%, 13% and 11% respectively.

Ivory Coast has become the second largest global supplier of processed cashew, having overtaken India and Brazil. US and EU importers are conscious of this change in the commercial pattern, prices being flat in the long term.


Dec 14 - Disappointing Indian sesame crop fuels imports (IHSmarkit)

- African prices have fallen by $100 per metric ton between November-December
- Sea shipping timeframe between Nigeria-India: around three weeks
- High Indian imports of Nigerian sesame seeds

The disappointing Indian sesame production has fueled imports of African seeds, although the domestic demand is flat, according to the Indian trader M. Lakhamsi in its latest market update.

Indian importers have purchased around 30,000 metric tons of Nigerian sesame seeds from September-October 2024 with shipments to be delivered from November-December. These shipments might cut quotes in the Indian market.

Ethiopia and Sudan are offering their new crops, although the former is still suffering logistics bottlenecks. Prices for Ethiopian and Nigerian sesame seeds have fallen by $100 per metric ton between November-December. The sea shipping timeframe between India and Nigeria has fallen to around three weeks.
M. Lakhamsi quoted the following prices this December:

    Natural Whitish 99-1-1 : $1,980/metric ton, $15 more than in October
    Natural Whitish Sortex, min 99.95 % purity: $2,090/metric ton, $30 less than in October
    Natural Jet Black Sortex, min 99.95 % purity: $2,235/metric ton, 2% more m/m 
    Hulled Sesame, min 99.95 % purity: $2,340/metric ton, $10 less than in October
    Hulled Sesame, min 99.97 % purity : $2,360/metric ton, $5 less than in October


Dec 14 - Spanish almond prices stabilized due to Californian deliveries (IHSmarkit)

- Spanish almond crop 20% lower than initial estimates
- Prices for Comunas stabilized
- Gradual fall in the supply of traditional varieties such as Soleta, Largueta, Marcona or Guara

Spanish almond prices are stabilized despite a disappointing crop (around 20% lower than the initial estimates) as the California industry started to deliver its new production in November, according to the Spanish trader Hispania Nuts in its latest market update.

- Comuna variety prices averaged €3.50 per kilo ($3.78/kg) for mid-sizes and €4.60-4.70/kg for the highs. Spanish food manufacturers are quiet as they have abundant supply to work and growers are waiting for a bullish trend when the campaign to cover the Ramadan festival in North Africa starts.

The demand is high for Spanish varieties appropriate for snacks such as Soleta,, Largueta, Marcona or Guara. The Spanish industry has planted trees of varieties similar to the Californians not updating the traditional Spanish ones. As a result, its supply is gradually falling, processors being willing to pay a satisfactory quote for farmers.

- Organic almond prices average €5.95-6/kg, still unsatisfactory for those farmers who bet on turning to organic production with its traditional non-irrigated orchards.


Dec 8 - COFFEE-Vietnam domestic prices rise, Indonesia premiums unchanged

- Coffee prices in Vietnam edged up this week on higher demand and limited supplies, as harvest has not reached its peak yet, while in Indonesia premiums stayed unchanged from last week at the end of the crop season, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 59,900-60,500 dong ($2.47-$2.49) per kg, slightly higher than last week's 57,800-59,000 dong range.
"Output this year was forecast to be 10% lower than the previous one. That contributes to the price increase," said a trader based in the coffee belt.

March robusta coffee LRCc2 shed $41 or 2% to $2,512, as of Wednesday's close.

"London prices were down after ICO's report on global coffee surplus this crop season," another trader based in the coffee belt.

"Plus Vietnam is going to reach harvest peak soon as farmers have harvested more than half of the crop, London prices may continue to ease."

- Traders offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at the same price as London price to the March contract.

- Indonesia's Sumatra robusta coffee bean exports stood at 15,955.8 metric tons in October, down by 50.86% year-on-year, official data showed. Coffee shipments rose by 26.98% on a monthly basis from 12,564 tons in September.
Sumatra beans were offered at $600 premium to the January contract, unchanged from last week. Another trader said for December-January contract, the beans' premium were at $710-$720, similar to last week.


Dec 08 - Madagascar announces start of new vanilla bean export campaign (IHSmarkit)

- However, the list of approved exporters has not yet been published
- US trade sources raise concerns
- More enforcement of standards is called for

The Madagascar government has opened the country for vanilla bean exports.

In this new published export campaign, vanilla bean exports are allowed from Madagascar starting from 7 December through July 3 2024. This announcement comes following the recommendation from the National Vanilla Council (CNV).

However, the Madagascar government has not published the list of approved vanilla bean exporters that will be allowed to export vanilla beans from the country.

Douglas Daugherty, president of the Vanilla Corporation of America, noted: “Hopefully, the Madagascar government will publish the approved exporter list by the end of next week. It is possible that the Madagascar government wants to allow some time for ‘negotiation with various vanilla bean exporters to be ‘approved’ before publishing the list?”

Daugherty remarked that when the Madagascar government interferes with the free market for vanilla, it reduces the demand for vanilla beans particularly in the US.

For flavor companies making Natural Vanilla Flavors or Natural Vanilla Flavor With Other Natural Flavors (WONF), using pure vanilla extract extracted from vanilla beans in these types of flavors is optional, he pointed out.
“So, if a flavor company is having a hard time obtaining vanilla beans because of a Madagascar government export ban, then they will use more chemicals such as vanillin in these flavors. There are no consequences for the flavor company or the consumer packaged good company because the US Food and Drug Administration is not enforcing the Federal Standards of Identity for Vanilla,” Daugherty added.


Dec 07 - Seeds and Pulses prices reports (IHSmarkit)

Beans
Based on earlier yield projections, Saskatchewan Pulse Growers estimated that colored bean production in Canada and the US combined will likely fall from 1.24 million metric tons in 2022 to 1.09 million metric tons in 2023, while white bean production will fall from 295,000 metric tons in 2022 to 268,000 metric tons in 2023.

Despite overall reduced production, the US bean market remained mixed in November. Producer prices of navy and pinto beans EXW Minnesota/Dakota rose 8% and 5% m/m to $32.50 and $37.38 per hundredweight, respectively. Producer prices of great northern beans EXW Denver fell 7% m/m to $39/cwt in November. Navy bean producer prices EXW Michigan dropped 2% m/m to $39.69/cwt in November.

Canadian No. 2 faba bean price FOB fell 6% m/m to C$11.53 ($8.49) per bushel in November, despite an anticipated decrease in production.

Wholesale prices of mung beans (Moong Dal) in India increased 1% m/m to 106,135 rupees ($1,273) per metric ton in November.

Chickpeas
Canadian chickpea prices recorded an overall decrease in November as Agriculture and Agri Food Canada (AAFC) forecasts production to rise 5% y/y to 134,000 metric tons in the 2023/24 crop year, due to higher planted area, despite lower yields. Canadian 9mm Kabuli and Desi chickpea prices FCA Saskatchewan dipped 2% m/m each to C$53.09/cwt ($39.11) and C$38.15/cwt ($28.1), respectively. In the same month, Canadian No. 2 Kabuli chickpea prices FOB plunged 26% m/m to C$40.81/cwt ($30.07).

The Indian chickpeas index FOR Indian ports increased 1% m/m to $752/t in November.

Lentils
The Canadian lentil market was mixed in November as lower yields in Western Canada are expected by AAFC to cut lentil production by one-third to 1.54 million metric tons. Canadian No. 1 red lentil price FCA Saskatchewan dropped 2% m/m to C$35.63/cwt ($26.27) in November. Meanwhile, prices of Canadian No. 1 large green and small green lentils increased by 3% and 2% m/m to C$65.38/cwt ($48.2) and C$60.25/cwt ($44.42), respectively.

Peas
Canadian pea market was mixed in November as lower yields in Saskatchewan reduced AAFC’s 2023/24 dry pea production estimate by 34% y/y to 2.27 million metric tons. In November, Canadian yellow pea price on a FOB basis grew 3% m/m to C$10.71 ($7.89) per bushel, while Canadian green and maple pea prices FOB fell 4% and 8% m/m to C$15.95 ($11.75) and C$23.05 ($16.99) per bushel, respectively.

In the US, dry pea production is forecast by the USDA to rise by 14% y/y to 779,180 metric tons, due to higher planted area in North Dakota and Montana, and above average yields. Producer prices of whole yellow peas EXW Minnesota/Dakota went down by 5% m/m to $12.61/cwt in November. Producer price of whole green peas EXW Minnesota/Dakota rose 9% m/m to $16.05/cwt in November, while price of the same variety EXW Pacific Northwest dipped 2% to $14.31/cwt.

Price Focus
Prices of both white and colored dry beans in North America are expected to remain firm due to an overall reduction in production in 2023. Supplies of white and colored dry beans in Canada and the US combined is estimated to fall by 19% and 8% y/y to 0.37 and 1.37 million metric tons in 2023, respectively.

Canadian pea prices will likely remain firm compared to last year as pea production and supply in Canada and the US combined are forecast to plunge by 26% and 17% y/y to 3.06 and 3.72 million metric tons in 2023, despite higher carry-in stocks.


Dec 06 - Fall in Sudanese gum Arabic and sesame quotes due to carry-over stocks (IHSmarkit)

 

 

The civil war is making it hard to collect acacia gum from trees, a disappointing gum Arabic crop in the 2023-24 season but high carry-over stocks have cut prices to $2,950/metric ton FOB Port Sudan for Grade 1, slightly down from $3,000/metric ton reached in November but far from $2,100/metric ton in January 2023.

Gum Arabic is extracted by a process of ‘tapping’ the bark and branches of the acacia tree and allowing the gum to seep out which then solidifies on the trees’ branches ready for picking. These nodules are collected, cleaned, bagged, and exported to final buyers/ importers (mainly spray dryers) where they are usually spray dried into its final form for use as a direct application ingredient.

 

- Sesame seeds are following a similar price trend. Sudanese exporters are offering white sesame seeds at $1,750/metric ton currently, down from $2,250/metric ton in November. The sesame origins are controlled by the army and rebel fighters were not focused on stealing them to sell them in the domestic market as they do with staples such as peanuts, Fares Oufi, commercial director at FAAS Trade and Investment, UK, which represents Africorp International, explained to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

“Carry-over stocks due to logistics bottlenecks are softening prices although this bearish trend will take longer than the one for gum Arabic, as a bumper crop is expected,” Oufi explained.

In addition, a new factor is strengthening this bearish trend: Egyptian traders are aiming to purchase these carry-over stocks at low prices, smuggling and exporting through the Alexandria port as Egyptian. “They aimed to cross European customs, very strict about origins and maximum residue limits (MRLs), blurring the outlook as traditional traders must take position for the new crop,” Oufi added.

 

- Peanuts

The Chinese demand is essential for the Sudanese peanut industry, being the real driver of growth and securing sea shipping services. “Sudanese peanut exporters are aiming to sell at $1,150/metric ton for Spanish variety and Chinese importers are not willing to pay more than $1,050-1,100/metric ton. They want to secure consumption during the New Year festival (February 2024) although they can wait for other African origins, such as Senegal, which have started to harvest,” Oufi said.


Dec 05 - Gradual increase in Indian coriander prices due to fall in planted area (IHSmarkit)

 

 

The Indian coriander seed spot price averaged 8,322 rupees/quintal ($989.4/metric ton) at the Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 4 December 2023, 7% more month-on-month and 22% less year-on-year, as traders are betting on a bullish trend due to the fall in the planted area for the 2023-24 season.

Indian exports reached 93,963 metric tons valued at $98.2 million in January-September 2023, three times more y/y in volume and 81% more in value, with China being the driver of growth, according to customs data. September 2023 exports reached tons 4,039 metric tons (57% more y/y), with Malaysia accounting for 43% (1,121 metric tons, +68% y/y).

The main importers of whole coriander (91% of the total exported volume) were China, Malaysia and the UAE, accounting for 48%, 12% and 8% , respectively.


Nov 30 - COFFEE-Vietnam trade tepid on beans scarcity; premium steady in Indonesia

- Fresh coffee beans from Vietnam's 2023/24 harvest are yet to arrive in bulk as rains in key growing areas have disrupted bean processing, while premiums stayed unchanged in Indonesia, traders said on Thursday.

Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 57,800 dong-59,000 dong ($2.38-$2.43) per kg, slightly changed from 59,000 dong last week.
"Lack of sunlight is hindering farmers from drying their fresh beans," said a trader based in the coffee belt. "With this weather condition, hopefully supplies will build up in the next three weeks.

Another trader in the region said output this year may be 10% lower than the previous one due to unfavourable weather condition and smaller cultivation area.

March robusta coffee LRCc2 shed $13 to $2,468, as of Wednesday's close.

- Sellers quoted $100 premium per ton to the March contract although very few deals were sealed at that price.
"Some are under great pressure to deliver physical beans of their past future contracts but overall not many are interested in that high price."

- Coffee exports from Vietnam are estimated to have fallen 11.7% in the year to mid-Nov to 1.33 million metric tons from a year earlier, government data showed. Coffee export revenue fell 1.9% to $3.4 billion in the period.

- Indonesian Sumatra robusta coffee beans remained unchanged this week, at $720 premium to the January contract. Another trader quoted $600 premium to the same contract, unchanged from a week ago.
"Fewer beans were coming into coming into exporters' warehouses, only around 100-150 tons per week on average," the trader said.


Nov 30 - Vietnamese cashew market shows limited trading activity (IHSmarkit)

 

 

The Vietnamese cashew market was relatively quiet last week, Ho Chi Minh City-based supplier Golden Bridge observed.

“While WW240, WS and LP received fairly good demand, WW320 is facing pressure to reduce prices further. We've indeed begun to receive offers at $2.30/lbs FOB from few small HACCP packers, but it's challenging to negotiate for high-quality products at this rate,” it explained.

This contrasts with recent customs figures which gave a similar October 2023 total of 194,976 metric tons but reported as a 23% decline year-on-year .

Golden Bridge noted that as a result of the latest acquisitions, the country’s total RCN imports in the first 10 months of this year gained 39% to 2,618,188 metric tons. This is also slightly different from the earlier customs data which put Vietnam’s January-October RCN imports at 2.52 million metric tons, 45% more y/y.

Volumes acquired from Cambodia declined 53.9% this October to 1,760 metric tons and the January-October quantity from Cambodia was 7.5% down at 614,956 metric tons.

Vietnam’s RCN imports from other markets gained 76.3% last month to 103,208 metric tons bringing its total RCN purchases from other markets over the January-October 2023 period to 1,167,132 metric tons – up 63% year-on-year.

Golden Bridge noted that taking into account Vietnam’s imports of cashew nut kernels (white kernels and kernels in skin) over the same period the country has imported more than 3 million metric tons of cashews in the first 10 months of this year.


Nov 28 - Unusual Ivory Coast rain could strengthen cocoa main crop - farmers
Above-average rain and some sun in most of Ivory Coast’s main cocoa regions last week could boost the October-to-March main-crop, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is in its dry season which runs from mid-November to March when rain is scarce.

Nov 27 - Gradual fall in Indian cumin seed prices (IHSmarkit)

 

 

- Indian cumin seed spot prices averaged 45,981 Indian rupees per quintal ($5,519/metric ton) at the Unjha market (Gujarat, northwest) on 27 November 2023, 7% less month-on-month and 91% more year-on-year.

- Indian cumin seed exports reached 117,389 metric tons valued at $461.4 million in January-September 2023, 23% less y/y in volume and 18% more y/y in value, according to customs data. China, Bangladesh and the US were the main importers of whole cumin seeds (94% of the exported volume), accounting for 31%, 20% and 5%, respectively, of the volume.

- China was the driver of export growth from January-April but record prices have slowed its purchases. As soon as China has halted imports this September (0 records), the price has plummeted.

 

Nov 25 - Walnut exporters have had limited success raising prices (IHSmarkit)
 

 

- The global walnut industry needs a way to cope with the general trend in nuts: crops have grown faster than demand, resulting in less returns to growers on each kg of product, according to Dutch broker Global Trading & Agency.

“This trend is not limited to certain growing areas but has its impact on basically all growing regions worldwide,” the company added.

 

- Global Trading & Agency added that in terms of actual market prices, this trend was already visible during the pandemic, “or actually already before that if we compare global availability versus pricing per kg.” Currently, walnut exporters have tried to increase prices with the start of the 2023 season, with only limited success so far. Prices in California, where the 2023 season is only two months under way, started off slightly higher than last season, but seem to be under pressure again.

“The same seems to be happening with prices from China, where the efforts for higher prices doesn’t seem to pay off. Observations closer at home, such as Ukraine, Moldova and Romania, show slightly better conditions for exporters who are able to supply product for the desperately wanted Christmas needs. How prices develop for deliveries after the Christmas needs remains to be seen,” Global Trading & Agency concluded.

Nov 22 - Stabilization in nutmeg prices due to promising crop in Indonesia (IHSmarkit)

- Bumper Indonesian crop expected due to heavy rains
- China is the driver of growth in international sales
- Fall in nutmeg and mace prices

The rainfall average has recovered in Indonesian and Indian nutmeg origins, driving prices to a stable trend, according to trading sources.

China is raising its imports of Indonesian nutmeg, totaling 7,940 metric tons in January-September 2023, 50% more year-on-year as Chinese importers need to replenish their stocks after being at lows since the Covid-19 pandemic.

On the other hand, EU and US imports are clearly behind the same period in 2022 with importers waiting for updates about nicotine levels, as it is currently taking place for vanilla. On the other hand, India has raised its imports of Indonesian nutmeg in the same period, having reached around 1,800-1,900 metric tons (+25% y/y).

S&P Global Commodity Insights listed the following CIF prices in the week ending on 16 March 2023:

  • Indonesian nutmeg sound shrivels: $10,800/metric ton, stagnant month-on-month and 6% less y/y
  • Indonesian nutmegs whole 80/85: $12,000/metric ton, stagnant m/m and 8% less y/y
  • Indonesian nutmeg BWP: $5,200/metric ton, stagnant m/m and y/y
  • Indonesian nutmeg ABCD: $11.400/metric ton, stagnant m/m and 3% less y/y
  • Indonesian mace whole: $ 23,.000/metric ton, stagnant m/m and 4% less y/y
  • Papua New Guinea mace broken: $20,000/metric ton, stagnant m/m and 9% less y/y.

 

Nov 22 - Indian coriander seed prices look set for upward pressure 22 Nov 2023 (IHSmarkit)

- Slowed pace of plantings is helping to underpin coriander seed prices
- Cumin seed price gains could be limited by higher sowings in this category
- Weak domestic demand for turmeric


Indian coriander seed (dhaniya) prices are expected to trade higher on reports of lower sowing in Gujarat.

In its Commodity Daily Report (Agri) SMC Global Securities noted that Indian coriander sowing activities are slower so far in 2023 due to delayed sowing in Gujarat as only 35,754 hectares was sown under coriander seed in the state as of 20 November compared with 95,633 ha of the previous year.

The firm forecast that coriander seed prices are likely to trade in a range of 7,900-8,200 rupees ($94.82-98.42) per quintal.

 

Cumin seed

SMC Global Securities expects Indian cumin seed (jeera) prices to trade in the range on short covering triggered with renewed buying in the local market.

The company suggested that gains in cumin seed are likely to be limited in the wake of higher production prospects for the forthcoming season. It added that prices will track ongoing sowing activities, which picked up in the last week as 88,696 ha was sown under cumin seed as of 20 November 23 in Gujarat compared with 77,037 ha of the previous year.

Cumin seed prices are expected to hold support of INR43,200/quintal whereas resistance is seen at INR48,000/quintal.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric prices remained under pressure on muted domestic demand. Stockists offloaded their stocks whereas bulk buying is being avoided by millers after news of improved crop condition in major producing states.

The major focus is on crop progress which is has been satisfactory despite facing drier than normal weather in October in major producing states. Technically prices might see short covering anytime. Turmeric is likely to trade in a range of INR11,900-12,700/quintal.

 

Guar seed and guar gum

Guar seed futures are likely to trade down as supplies are expected to improve in fear of a fall in prices. SMC Global Securities expects farmers and stockists to offload their stocks on recent gains in prices.

The company noted that persistent weakness in crude oil prices has hampered the export opportunities of gum that will exert pressure on guar seed prices as well. Guar prices have a correlation with crude prices as guar is used a lot during oil drilling activities. However, overall production of guar has been down compared with last year and this will cap the losses.

Guar seed prices are likely to find support near INR5,550/quintal whereas resistance is seen at INR5,880. Similarly, guar gum prices are likely to honor support of INR11,000/quintal whereas resistance is seen at INR12,000/quintal, SMC Global Securities stated.

 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil prices are expected to trade sideways to higher on shrinking supplies in the market . Arrivals have been tighter and likely to remain down and this is likely to support firmness in prices. However, muted exports of menthol and mentha oil will cap the gains, SMC Global Securities predicted.

Mentha oil prices are likely to find support near INR885 and resistance can be seen at INR930.


Nov 18 - Vietnam’s cashew exports recovery in October 17 Nov 2023 - (IHSmarkit)

 

 

Vietnam’s international cashew shipments increased by 13.3% year-on-year to 64,320 metric tons in October, bringing its global sales from January-October 2023 to 516,868 metric tons (+18.8% y/y) valued at $2,9 billion (+15.9% y/y) as the international demand is rising.


The main importers were the US, China and the Netherlands, accounting for 25%, 17% and 10%, respectively.

Vietnam’s raw cashew nut (RCN) imports this October fell by 23% y/y to 194,976 metric tons, bringing its January-October RCN imports to 2.52 million metric tons, 45% more y/y.

The main suppliers were Ivory Coast (31% of the total), Cambodia (24%), Nigeria (10%) and Ghana (9%). Ivory Coast has overtaken Cambodia as the main Vietnamese supplier, due to the disappointing crop in the latter.


Prices are stabilized, the Vietnamese trader Golden Bridge listing the following FOB quotations for shipments between November-December, in the week ending on 11 November:


Nov 17 - Rain in Vietnam's coffee belt slows harvest peak (Reuters)


- Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam climbed this week as fresh supply from the new harvest is yet to pick up due to heavy rain in key growing areas over the past weeks that disrupted cherry picking, traders said on Thursday.

Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 58,500-59,400 dong ($2.41-$2.45) per kg, higher than last week's 57,200-58,600 dong.

 

“Negative news on weather in Vietnam contributed to the rise,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.

 

“Beans are limited but farmers are releasing them bit by bit,” the second trader said. “Clearly it’s not a good harvest. Rains have disrupted all activities.”


Nov 16 - ISO boosts Russian sugar production forecast for this season to 6.6 mln tonnes

- The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has estimated sugar production in Russia in the 2023/2024 agricultural year at 6.6 million tonnes, according to its quarterly report.

The previous estimate, made in August, was 6.4 million tonnes.

Last season, 6.1 million tonnes of sugar was produced in Russia, according to ISO data.

The export estimate was raised to 800,000 tonnes from 500,000 tonnes, while the import estimate was lowered to 31,000 tonnes from 200,000 tonnes. The forecast of carryover stocks was reduced to 2.139 million tonnes from 2.558 million tonnes. Annual consumption is estimated at 5.831 million tonnes


- As reported, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) estimates sugar production in Russia this season at 6.5 million tonnes, but does not rule out raising the forecast.

The authors of the ISO review forecast world sugar production this season at 179.887 million tonnes compared with 178.328 million tonnes last season. Even despite the increase, they note that the current season will see a deficit. "A fundamental view of the global supply and demand situation suggests a small deficit. We expect a global deficit of 0.335 million tonnes compared to the August estimate of 2.118 million tonnes," the report said.


 

Nov 15 - Indian turmeric prices dragged down by selling pressure and slack domestic demand (IHSmarkit)


 

Turmeric

Indian turmeric prices extended losses with increased selling pressure in the market.

In its Commodity Daily Report (Agri) of 15 November SMC Global Securities added that muted demand in the domestic market weighed on market sentiments.

The firm explained that spot prices at the Nizamabad market dropped to 13,440 rupees ($161.20) per quintal down by 0.7% from the previous day. “Prices are likely to remain down on demand concerns as most of the market participants stayed away from bulk buying in the wake of improved yield prospects. Stocks are expected to be offloaded ahead of the new crop season that will keep prices down,” it added.

SMC Global Securities noted that the major focus is on crop progress which has been satisfactory despite the weather being drier than normal in October in major producing states. However, overall production is estimated to be down due to an estimated 10% reduction in the area under turmeric in 2023.

SMC Global Securities predicted that turmeric is likely to trade in a range of INR13,100-13,800/quintal.


Cumin seed

Cumin seed (jeera) extended its losses with increased supplies in the market.

“Stockists offloaded their positions ahead of the new crop season. Prices are expected to track cues from ongoing sowing progress of jeera which is expected to be improve in coming days,” SMC Global Securities stated.

Sowing activities have been slower as only 1,542 hectares was sown under cumin seed as on 6 November 23 in Gujarat compared with 3,866 ha of the previous year. Sluggish exports is still a major hurdle for substantial gains in prices.

India’s total cumin seed exports have slumped 26% year-on-year during April 2023-August 2023. Cumin seed prices are expected to hold resistance at INR47,000/quintal whereas support is seen at INR39,000/quintal.


Coriander seed

Coriander seed (dhaniya) prices pared its gains on Monday on account of profit booking. Hand to mouth buying in the physical market and expectations of a rise in area under coriander in the new crop season weighed on the market sentiments.

Sowing activities are slower so far this year due to drier weather condition in October but they are expected to improve in the coming days as weather conditions are likely to be conducive for sowing progress.

Only 2,175 ha was sown under coriander seed in Gujarat as on 6 November compared with 12,449 ha at the same time last year.

SMC Global Securities believes that coriander seed prices are likely to trade in a range of INR7,500-8,000/quintal.


Guar seed and guar gum

Guar seed futures are expected to trade on a weaker note due to demand concerns.

Muted demand of gum and increased availability of the alternative of guar meal has led to a fall in crushing activities of guar seed and that has been reflected in a fall in prices of guar seed. Demand of guar meal has been muted with increased supplies of other alternative feed meals in the market.

Guar gum exports dropped by 16% month-on-month in August 2023 to nearly 17,000 metric tons due to limited buying by the US.

SMC Global Securities suggested that guar seed prices are likely to find support near INR5,450/quintal whereas resistance is seen at INR5,900/quintal. Similarly, guar gum prices are likely to honor support of INR10,800/quintal whereas resistance is seen at INR11,700/quintal.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil prices are expected to trade sideways to higher on shrinking supplies in the market.

Arrivals have been tighter and are likely to remain down and this is likely to support firmness in prices, SMC Global Securities noted. However, muted exports of menthol and mentha oil will cap the gains.

The company forecasts that mentha oil prices are likely to find support near INR900 and resistance can be seen at INR950.


Nov 14 - Walnut Update: November 2023

 

 

The global walnut crop estimate has been downgraded as frosts have hit average yield in China and the USDA has cut the planned acreage projection. The 2023-24 Chinese crop is forecast at 1.35 million metric tons against the previous estimate of 1.45 million metric tons. Meanwhile, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the USDA has cut the US estimate by 30,000 metric tons to 689,460 metric tons after the Californian Walnut Commission (CWB) reduced its planted area projection to 151,800 hectares due to a survey conducted by Land IQ. As a result, the world production is projected at 2.79 million metric tons, 1% less y/y and down from the previous estimate.

The US walnut industry is starting the season with record sales as China is doing. Meanwhile, Chile has only around 5,000 metric tons to sell for Christmas (December) festivities. That means a bullish price outlook after several months of digesting huge carry-over stocks.

 

California

Californian walnut shipments rose by 14.3% year-on-year to 85.0 million in-shell lbs (relying on shell out from the previous season: 40.1), bringing seasonal sales to (September-October) to 129.5 million lbs, 23.6% more y/y. Californian domestic sales accounted for 71% of shipments.

In-shell shipments totaled 48.2 million lbs, 10.4% more y/y. Exports accounted for 93%. The main importers were Turkey (13.5 million lbs, +47.3% y/y) and Italy (12.0 million lbs, +12.8% y/y).

Shelled sales totaled 50.9 million lbs, 23% up from October 2022. Exports accounted for 40.4% (20.6 million lbs, +28.5% y/y). The main seasonal kernel importers were South Korea (3.59 million lbs,+102%), Spain (3.54 million lbs, +22%) and Germany (3.0 million lbs, +51%).

Prices are stabilized, despite low carry-over stocks due to weak demand. Importers are keeping an eye on the new crops in the US and eastern Europe to avoid paying higher prices than average to secure supply during the Christmas festivities.

 

Chile

Chilean prices have stabilized after starting a slight recovery for in-shells and are growing strongly for kernels, due to a shortage of the latter.

Chilean exports fell by 17% y/y to 15,430 metric tons (in-shell basis) this October, bringing seasonal sales (March-October) to 146,422 metric tons (+4% y/y). The main seasonal in-shell importers were India with 44,062 metric tons (+105% y/y) and Turkey with 21,574 metric tons (stagnant y/y). Kernel exports reached 24,290 metric tons (-9.8% y/y). The main seasonal kernel purchaser was Spain with 4,504 metric tons (+23% y/y).

The Chilean industry has committed all the crop and will not have carry-over stocks this season. Growers and processors are waiting for February to start commercializing the new harvest in Gulfood (Dubai, 19-23 February 2024) with importers aiming to secure the supply during the Ramadan festival (10 March-9 April 2024).

Trading sources listed the following fob prices for Chilean walnuts in October:

 

China

China’s crop is expected to be flat at 1.34 million metric tons in the 2023-24 season. China is the largest world origin and is projected to conclude the season with carry-over stocks of 120,000 metric tons, two and a half times more than in the previous season. Export data reveals these huge inventories might be at the core of weak prices as the international market is literally flooded with walnuts which are not fulfilling the EU requests.

China exported 131,013 metric tons of walnuts in January-September 2023, 60% more y/y, and is set to exceed the record level reached in 2021: 154,000 metric tons.

Chinese light Amber prices averaged £2,623/metric ton ($3,824/metric ton) exw UK in October 2023, 5% less m/m and 45% less y/y, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

 

Ukraine

Slowed Ukrainian walnut exports, due to logistics bottlenecks as a consequence of the Russia-Ukraine war, were an important bearish factor in the previous season.

Export data unveils that exports are recovering although with orders to markets reluctant to pay high prices for high-quality product. Ukraine’s international sales rose by 4% y/y to 14,160 metric tons in January-August 2023. The main importers were Turkey (3,376 metric tons, two times more y/y), Azerbaijan (1,412 metric tons, 48% more y/y) and France (1,320 metric tons, 34% less y/y).

 

Nov 14 - Brazil's sugar production outlook raised as weather helps harvesting

Brazil's center-south region should produce 40.5 million metric tons of sugar in the 2023/24 season (April-March), a record and 500,000 tons more than previously expected, Green Pool Commodity Specialists projected on Monday. Green Pool said in a weekly report that hot and dry weather in the region is allowing mills to continue sugarcane harvesting at a good pace, with a large allocation of the cane towards sugar production.

Nov 10 - Asia Market awaits new beans in Vietnam; Indonesia premiums rise (Reuters)

- Bids and offers remained far apart in Vietnam, with buyers waiting for prices to stabilise ahead of the arrival of fresh beans as the harvest peaks later this month, traders said on Thursday, adding Indonesia premiums rose further on beans scarcity. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 57,200-58,600 dong ($2.35-$2.40) per kg, compared with 57,700-59,000 dong range a week ago.

Sellers in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at $120 premium per metric ton to the January contract. Buyers, however, only agree to buy at $40-$50 premiums. To the November contract, sellers quoted $200 premium per metric ton while buyers offered the premium in the $120-$150 range.
“Supplies are limited, so those who have to fulfil their November contracts have to buy at high prices. Meanwhile, January prices are down this week as beans started to tick up,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.
“Hopefully, the prices will start to cool next week when more beans come.”

Another trader said it was still sunny at the moment but if it gets warmer, it would be much better for the beans.
Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first 10 months of 2023 were 1.3 million metric tons, a 10.7% decline from the same period last year, government customs data showed on Thursday.

In Indonesia, Sumatran beans were offered at $600 premium to the January contract this week, a $40 increase compared to the previous one due to “shortage of beans”, a trader said.
Another trader quoted $620-$700 premium to the November-December contract, up from last week’s $580-$600 range.

Nov 02 - ICE certified arabica coffee stocks fall to lowest in 24 years
The amount of arabica coffee stored at certified warehouses of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell on Wednesday to 380,033 60-kg bags, the lowest level in 24 years, according to data from the exchange and information compiled by Reuters. ICE said in a daily report on Wednesday that the certified stocks had decreased by 9,105 bags, and that there was no coffee recently delivered pending the grading process for approval to enter the certified stocks.

Nov 02 - Tanzania starts the global cashew season with official auctions (IHSmarkit)

-  Tanzanian harvest takes place from October-November
-   Flat Indian demand for cashews despite the Diwali festival (November)
-   US and EU importers are destocking inventories built up during the Covid-19 pandemic

Tanzania (east Africa) has triggered the 2023-24 global cashew season, opening its auctions in October with purchases of 20,000 metric tons with bullish prices driven by Indian processors, according to Olam Nuts in its latest market update. However, the Indian domestic demand for cashews is still flat despite the Diwali festival, confirming the rising market share for other nuts such as almonds, pistachios or walnuts.

Flowering will start in Asia from February onwards and Vietnam will need to raise orders to replenish stocks in January, just before the Lunar festival (February). Tanzania is the main eastern African origin and its harvest (October-November) starts the commercial season. Global prices for in-shell cashews are flat and quotes for high-quality kernels are growing due to low availability of the latter.

Consumption is growing at a strong pace, particularly in the US and the EU where importers were destocking after building up high inventories to secure supply during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Oct 26 - Ivory Coast in fresh stand-off with cocoa buyers over premium
Ivory Coast is struggling to sell cocoa export contracts for the 2024/25 season with multinational companies demanding it lower prices, which are elevated due to a supply squeeze, the head of the country's cocoa regulator said on Wednesday. Ivory Coast is the world's top producer of cocoa, the main ingredient in chocolate. Along with neighbouring Ghana, it produces about two-thirds of the world's supply.

Oct 26 - Kenya Plans to Offer 432.5 Tons of Arabica Coffee at Auction (DJ)

- Kenya plans to offer 432.5 metric tons of mild Arabica green coffee beans at an auction on Oct. 31, the Nairobi Coffee Exchange said Thursday.

  At the prior auction on Oct. 24, coffee beans were sold at an average price of $207.67 for a 50-kilogram bag, up 5.1% from $197.53 a bag at an earlier auction on Oct.11, the NCE said in a provisional market summary report.

  A total of 698.03 metric tons of beans were sold for $2.90 million, compared with 404.62 tons sold for $1.60 million at the prior auction.

  Almost all Kenyan arabica coffee is sold at auctions run by the NCE. Most is destined for export, although direct sales are allowed. Kenya's arabica auctions use the New York ICE futures index as their benchmark.

  Production is estimated to increase 6.7% to 800,000 60-kilogram bags in the current marketing year from 750,000 bags in the prior year, due to improved weather conditions and more fertilizer application, the U.S. agriculture department said in its annual Kenya coffee report.

Oct 23 - Tanzania Plans to Offer 671 Tons of Coffee Beans at Auction (DJ)

- Tanzania plans to offer 671 metric tons of coffee beans at an auction on Thursday, the country's coffee board said Monday.
  At a prior auction held on Oct. 19, a total 235.8 tons were sold.

  The highest price at the auction on Oct. 19 was $150.80 for a 50-kilogram bag, up from $134 a bag at the prior auction on Oct. 12, according to the board's market report. The lowest price was $20 a bag, down from $22 a bag.

  Tanzanian arabica auctions use the New York ICE Futures price index as the benchmark. Robusta prices follow the London-traded contract on ICE. Direct sales are also allowed.   Almost all Tanzanian coffee is sold for export.

  Tanzania's green coffee bean production is expected to rise 3.7% on year to 85,000 tons in the current marketing year beginning July, according to the country's agriculture minister Hussein Bashe.

Oct 13 - Indian turmeric prices being dragged down by demand uncertainty (IHSmarkit)

- Turmeric losses are looking limited though
- Cumin seed also prone to bearish influences
- Mentha oil exports lagging behind year-ago levels

- Indian turmeric prices are expected to remain subjected to downward pressure due to demand concerns.

In its Commodity Daily Report (Agri) of 12 October Indian company SMC Global Securities observed that improved production prospects due to favorable weather conditions weighed on market sentiments. The crop condition is satisfactory and Indian turmeric will be ready for harvest during January to March.
“However, losses in turmeric are looking limited due to tighter ending stocks and decreasing supplies are expected to sustain price stability,” SMC Global Securities added. The firm explained that overall arrivals have been down in October 2023 from those of the same month last year. Turmeric ending stocks are expected to drop by 20% year-on-year to 291,000 metric tons in 2023-24 due to lower production. In addition, there is support for improved export opportunities, as turmeric exports have increased by 25% due to rising demand in both developed and emerging nations.
Turmeric prices are expected to honor the support near 13,700 rupees ($xxxx) per quintal whereas resistance is seen at INR15,000/quintal.

- Cumin seed
SMC Global Securities expects cumin seed (jeera) futures to remain under pressure due to sluggish export demand.
Indian cumin seed exports fell this September as prices became uncompetitive in the global market after sharp gains. Global demand of Indian cumin seed slumped as most buyers preferred other lower priced destinations such as Syria and Turkey. India exported about 7,100 metric tons of cumin seed in July 2023 compared with 19,000 metric tons in the same month last year.
The country’s total cumin seed exports during April 2023-July 2023 was reported at 57,500 metric tons against the 63,300 metric tons of the previous year.
SMC Global Securities noted that Indian cumin seed exports are likely to remain down in the forthcoming months in line with the export seasonality. “However, limited availability of quality crop in the market will cap the losses,” it added.
The company predicted that Indian cumin seed prices are likely to trade in a range of INR51,700-55,300/quintal.

- Coriander seed
SMC Global Securities predicted that Indian coriander seed (dhaniya) prices are likely to trade on a weaker note due to sluggish buying at prevailing levels.
“Adequate stocks at major trading centers weighed on market sentiments. Prices will track the upcoming sowing activities which is likely to start later in October. However, robust export demand will cap the losses,” it added.
Indian coriander seed exports rose significantly in 2023 due to supply concerns for other producing countries. SMC Global Securities expects Indian coriander seed prices to trade in a range of INR6,700-7,150/quintal.

- Guar seed and guar gum
SMC Global Securities predicted that guar seed November futures are likely to trade higher on increased buying in the domestic market. Lower production and an expected rise in seasonal demand of gum in October-December is likely to help prices to trade on a positive bias ahead. However, the commencement of the new crop season will lead to a rise in fresh supplies which will cap the gains, it suggested.
Guar seed prices are likely to honor the support of INR5,450/quintal and expected to move up towards the resistance of INR5,780/quintal. Gum prices are likely to trade in a range of INR11,000-11,900/quintal, according to SMC Global Securities.

- Mentha oil
Mentha oil prices are likely to trade sideways as prices may move up further on concerns over lower supplies in the market. However, sluggish export demand of menthol will cap the gains.
India exported about 1,500 metric tons of menthol in July 2023 compared with 1,900 metric tons in the same month last year. The country’s overall export of menthol was reported at 4,200 metric tons during the period of April-July 2023 against the 5,200 metric tons of the previous year.
SMC Global Securities forecast that mentha oil October prices are likely to find support near INR900 and resistance can be seen at INR945.

Oct 12 - Turkish hazelnut market buckles as buyers hesitate (IHSmarkit)

- Trade sources disappointed that largest buyer remained absent
- Sellers keen to stimulate some demand
- New crop quality appears to be satisfactory so far

Turkish hazelnut prices have declined this week as buyers continue to hold off and postpone their buying at these higher levels.

Olivier Telvi of UK trader Ronly Limited, which represents Turkish hazelnut processor Ronly Gida, noted: “There were rumors last week that Ferrero was preparing to make a second round of purchases to increase coverage, but this announcement never arrived. As a result, some sellers with additional cash flow requirements have come to the market with reduced prices in order to stimulate demand.”

Telvi explained that crop estimates remain in the range of 600,000-650,000 metric tons which is much lower than the 800,000 + metric tons expected this May. “However, now a month into the start of the harvest, we can say that despite the quantity being lower, quality seems satisfactory despite earlier concerns in September,” he added.

Prices supplied this week to S&P Global Commodity Insights confirmed the downtrend. On Thursday (12 October) Turkish 11-13 hazelnuts were indicated at $7,700 per metric ton CPT Europe, down from $7,800/t CPT Europe a week ago.

Oct 12 - Guatemalan cardamom harvest delayed due to political instability (IHSmarkit)

- 10-20% y/y fall in the Guatemalan cardamom crop expected
- Pimento production stabilized at around 2,000 metric tons
- Combination of collapsed road transport services and low farmgate prices

The Guatemalan cardamom harvest is delayed by two-three weeks due to social riots due to political instability after general elections, being held in June, the Federation of Growers in Alto Verapaz (Fedecovera, north Guatemala) told S&P Global Commodity Insights during the Anuga fair, being held in Cologne from 7-11 October.

Alto Verapaz is the largest cardamom origin.
Most cardamom farmers own small orchards, ranging around one-two hectares in isolated areas, and road freight services are collapsed temporarily due to road blockades.
In addition, low prices are discouraging growers, waiting for a bullish trend for farmgate prices once they have heard about rising prices in destinations, due to a disappointing Indian supply.

Rains have not been as abundant as in the previous season, forecasting a crop 10-20% lower year-on-year, as plants have a lower average yield.

Alto Verapaz is also an important pimento origin. Guatemala’s pimento harvest has finished and the crop is estimated at around 2,000 metric tons, being consistent with updates developed by S&P Global Commodity Insights through trading sources.
“We are aiming to plant new pimento trees although they will not come into fruition over the next three-four years, needing that most of them are female gender,” Fedecovera concluded.

Oct 12 - Brazilian cocoa grind increases amid production growth (IHSmarkit)

- Cocoa arrivals up 6% y/y in Q3 2023
- Investment in processing capacity increases
- Sharp fall in exports to Argentina

In Brazil, cocoa arrivals or the amount of cocoa beans delivered to industries in the country amounted to 69,646 metric tons in the third quarter of 2023, up 5% from the previous quarter, according to the industry group AIPC. Total arrivals between January and September 2023 rose 6% year-on-year to 162,766 metric tons.
“The increase was already expected as there was a delay in the harvest, due to unfavorable weather and losses caused by pests. Despite the positive figures, the final volume is expected to be lower than expected. Many producers have reported significant losses due to crop diseases", said Anna Paula Losi, the president of AIPC.

- Grindings
Cocoa bean grinding in the world’s fifth largest chocolate market totaled 64,024 metric tons in the third quarter of 2023, an increase of 3% compared with the previous quarter when the country processed 62,426 metric tons of beans. Cumulative cocoa processing amounted to 190,466 metric tons of beans, up 15% from 165,356 in the same period last year.

Losi said that the increase in production has impacted positively the grinding levels. In addition, the prospects for growth in domestic production have encouraged increased investment in processing capacity.

- Exports
Brazilian cocoa exports fell by 13% from the previous quarter to 10,764 metric tons in Q3 2023. The main buyers were Argentina, the US and Chile. This decline was mainly due to lower imports by Argentina, which retreated by 22%. The neighboring country, which is the larger market for Brazilian cocoa derivatives, has been going through an economic crisis in the last few years, which has had a negative impact on exports to this country.

There were no imports reported in Brazil in the third quarter.

Oct 11 - Moroccan herbs and spices impacted by adverse weather (IHSmarkit)

- Climate change cited as a key factor
- Coriander seed badly hit by rains
- Rosemary and thyme will also be scarce

Climate change is affecting the availability and quality of Moroccan wild herbs and spices this year, Indian broker SpicExim observed in a recent market report.
SpicExim observed: “Morocco is facing an unusual and critical situation this year, to say the least. Because of the rains at the end of the season a large part of the crop for all products has been destroyed and availability and quality of the raw material have been also affected. For that, prices of raw material are on an upward trend and a scarcity is expected.” The firm explained that due to the climatic conditions and drought of the last two years, the number of collection permits awarded this year was lower than in previous years.

Rosemary

Harvesting of rosemary in Morocco is almost completed. SpicExim reported there has been strong demand particularly from the culinary segment. A low number of permits were granted due to the drought in recent years. Fires in August have destroyed some of the areas covered by collection permits and a volume of about 800 metric tons has been lost.

The available volumes are well below the forecast quantities and scarcity is now known by all collectors.
“The market is highly demanding, prices are currently increased approximatively 10-11% more than July prices and are continuing on this trend,” SpicExim warned. Hence, the company expects further price increases for Moroccan rosemary over the coming weeks.

Moreover, there is very little material left to be offered and defaults are expected in future contracts due to the scarcity of raw material. SpicExim announced it is now able to offer rosemary leaf oil which has been sourced from controlled farms in Morocco and is meticulously distilled to extract its purest form.

Thyme
The current market situation on Moroccan thyme is shifting, as dry weather and heatwaves have destroyed some of the leaves and shortened the drying process. “We believe that crop damage is about 15-20%,” SpicExim stated. The government has delivered a limited number of permits. There is strong demand from all segments, particularly for organic quality.

Volumes are lower than expected initially by the early harvest. The availability of thyme might be affected by September’s earthquake.
Demand for Moroccan thyme is gradually returning thanks to lowering prices and for the known premium quality. Prices are expected to remain firm.

Coriander seed
Moroccan coriander seed is the product most affected by the rains that emerged at the beginning of the harvest. Despite the large cultivated volumes, trade sources in Morocco expect to harvest only 20% of a normal year’s crop. They report that there has been a shift from the attractive golden color before the rains, to 60% of the crop now being of medium dark and 20% dark (unusable).

There is strong demand, particularly for the usual quality (golden color) due to pesticide and allergen complying characteristics. For that, prices are sharp at this stage due the scarcity of such merchandise and prices are increasing. Suppliers in Morocco are working on the possibility of different mixes between medium dark and golden color coriander seeds, adaptable to each customer’s needs.

Buyers of Moroccan coriander seed are advised to book needed volumes as prices are set for a “remarkable increase” and product availability is very limited.

Oct 10 - Guatemalan cardamom prices prone to bullish forces (IHSmarkit)

- Smaller forthcoming crop and ongoing demand
- Reduced crop in India adding to bullish tone
- Definite potential for further upward pricing pressure

Guatemalan cardamom prices are increasing regularly due to steady demand and forecasts for a delayed and sharply reduced 2023-24 crop. Like India, the cardamom growing regions in Guatemala are suffering from prolonged dry weather which has prompted trade estimates for a much smaller crop this forthcoming season. Meanwhile, stocks of any 2022-23 crop material are dwindling and commanding high prices as buyers cover their requirements in the interim until the arrival of the new crop.

- This September, the monthly average for Guatemalan mixed yellow quality (MYQ) of 360 grams per liter increased to $8,976 per metric ton CIF any destination from the August 2023 average of $7,645/t CIF.

- S&P Global Commodity Insights price data shows the Guatemalan bold green cardamom (approximately 8 mm size) grew to $20,000/t CIF Middle East in September from $16,957/t in August. Meanwhile, Guatemalan seeds reached $14,476/t CIF any destination in September, up from $10,652/t in August.

- Daily prices at the time of writing (9 October) showed the bold green material holding levels of $20,000/t cif Middle East but the MYQ had edged up to $11,500/t CIF any destination and the seeds had gained to $15,000/t CIF any destination.

Albert Berisa of Rotterdam trader Catz International suggested that MYQs and seeds could potentially increase by a further 50-100% in price having already escalated massively in the last three months. He predicted that the bold greens could increase by an additional 30-40% having reached a range of $22-23 per kg CIF versus $13/kg three months ago.

Marco Van der Does of Van der Does Spice Brokers confirmed he had received the same information on reduced crops in Guatemala and India. Van der Does added he had not received any definite price offers from Guatemala lately but quotes on Indian cardamom has been “relatively sky high”.

Berisa recalled that Guatemala’s cardamom crop was quite large in the last two seasons.

In the 2022-23 season Guatemala’s cardamom crop was estimated at 50,000-55,000 metric tons. This compared with around 42,000-45,000 metric tons in 2021-22. However, for the imminent (albeit delayed) 2023-24 season the El Nino weather phenomenon has caused drought conditions and the crop is pegged to revert to a range of 30,000-32,000 metric tons putting it close to the estimated 2020-21 output of 30,000 metric tons.

India has also been adversely impacted by El Nino-induced lack of rains meaning its next cardamom crop is also set to be disappointing.

Berisa suggested that India’s production will fall back to about 21,000 metric tons or less from the recent range of around 30,000 metric tons.

He added: “Prices have been under pressure for almost two years now. They reached rock bottom levels pre-2016 because at that time also the prices reached a very low level. Shortly after that the prices started to rise once the production became short in Guatemala. Now we see more or less the same scenario with the only difference that the exportable quantity of this past season was much higher in comparison to 2015-2016. Also, the consumption has increased quite a lot during the past 10 years.”

Oct 10 - Ivory Coast weather boosts farmers' hopes for cocoa main crop
A mixture of rain and strong sunny spells over most of Ivory Coast’s main cocoa growing regions last week should help small pods develop and extend the October-to-March main crop, farmers said on Monday. Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is in its rainy season which usually runs from April to mid-November.

Oct 09 - Monthly Prices Report: Seeds and Pulses (IHSmarkit )

Beans
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) revised down its dry bean production estimate for 2023/24 by 8% to 277,000 metric tons, down 12% y/y. In its September crop production report, the USDA estimated the country’s dry edible bean production in 2023 at 1.029 million metric tons, down 12% from 2022.

As a result of reduced production, producer price of great northern beans EXW Denver rose 3% m/m to $41.33 per hundredweight in September, while producer price of pinto beans EXW Minnesota/Dakota increased 2% m/m to $35/cwt. In September, navy bean producer price EXW Minnesota/Dakota fell 3% m/m to $34/cwt, while producer prices of bagged dark red kidney beans slipped marginally to $42/cwt, down 1% m/m.

Wholesale prices for mung beans (Moong Dal) in India dropped 1% m/m to 102,005 Indian rupees per metric ton ($1,226) in September.

Chickpeas
In September, AAFC revised Canada’s chickpea production for 2023/24 down by 21% to 134,000 metric tons, up 5% y/y as increased planting area is offset by below average yields. Total chickpea supply for 2023/24 is expected to fall 37% y/y on lower carry-in stocks, and exports is projected to almost halve from 229,000 metric tons in 2022/23 to 120,000 metric tons in 2023/24. In September, Canadian 9mm Kabuli chickpea price FCA Saskatchewan rose 13% m/m to C$53.16/cwt ($38.8), while prices for the same variety on a CPT Saskatchewan basis increased by 12% m/m to $767/t. Canadian Desi chickpea price FCA Saskatchewan grew 8% m/m to C$36.39/cwt ($26.57) in September.

The Indian chickpeas index FOR Indian ports rose 9% m/m to $758/t in September. Bagged US food grade chickpeas EXW Pacific Northwest increased to $40/cwt in September, up 2% m/m.

Lentils
Canadian lentil prices saw an overall increase in September as the AAFC revised its lentil production for 2023/24 down by 14% to 1.54 million metric tons, down 33% y/y due to lower yields affecting mostly red lentils. In September, prices for Canadian red, small green, medium green, and large green lentils FCA Saskatchewan rose 11%, 11%, 9%, and 6% m/m to C$38.22 ($27.89), C$58.3 ($42.55), C$58.18 ($42.46), and C$61.24/cwt ($44.69), respectively. Canadian French green lentils FCA Saskatchewan, however, fell 7% m/m to C$58.2/cwt ($42.48) in September.

Price Focus
While Canada is expecting a 37% decline in its chickpea production, the USDA forecasts US chickpea production to surge 36% m/m to 225,000 metric tons in 2023/24. A larger global chickpea supply is expected to offset Canada’s reduced chickpea production and keep prices stable.

While the price increase in September is in line with the reduced production forecast by AAFC, traders are seeing better than initially expected crop performance and softening demand. The ongoing political dispute between Canada and India could have a significant impact on the future trade of lentils, causing uncertainty about the market’s direction.

Oct 06 - ASIA COFFEE-Vietnam trade unmatched, higher premiums in Indonesia (Reuters)

- Vietnam’s coffee market stayed quiet with bids and asks far apart as buyers were unwilling to match premiums offered by sellers, while premiums rose in Indonesia on limited supplies, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans COFVN-DAK for 64,800-66,700 dong ($2.66-$2.74) per kg, compared with last week's 65,900-66,700 dong range.

Sellers in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a $200 premium per ton to the January contract.
“No buyers have ever accepted that price. It’s too high,” said a trader based in the coffee belt. “The high premium was due to the high price of past contracts.”

January robusta coffee settled down $17, at $2,315 per metric ton, as of Wednesday’s close.

Another trader based in the region said planting area was down this crop season but productivity was higher due to favourable weather.
“Output may remain the same for this crop season but stormy season is coming and hopefully the weather remains this positive in November when farmers pick the beans,” the second trader said.

Coffee exports from Vietnam are estimated to have decreased 7.3% in the first nine months of 2023 from a year earlier to 1.27 metric tons, equivalent to 21.6 million 60 kg (130 pound) bags, official data showed.

- Indonesia’s August Sumatra robusta coffee bean exports were at 16,166.17 metric tons, a decline of 55.48% on a yearly basis, trade office data showed.
Sumatra bean prices to the November contract continued to rise this week, at a $480 premium due to thin supply.
“Coffee prices were up around $30 compared to last week as there were no more beans left,” one trader said.

Another trader quoted $500 premium to the October contract, unchanged from last week. ($1 = 24,385 dong)

Oct 05 - European Commission raises sugar production forecast (IHSmarkit)

- EU sugar output expected to rise more than 7% y/y in 2023-24
- Sugar import forecast reduced
- Exports projected to increase by 160,000 y/y

The European Commission has raised its estimate of sugar output in the European Union in 2023-24 to 15.638 million metric tons from its initial forecast of 15.522 million in early July. If realised, this would be up 7.1% from 14.608 million a year ago, but ending stocks will remain tight due to lower imports and a rise in exports, the European Commission said. The Commission’s forecast for sugar production in the 27-member bloc was linked to a sharp rise in the area sown with sugar beet in Poland that more than compensated for a fall in France with the area in Germany seen practically unchanged on the year.

The Commission projects EU sugar imports in 2023-24 (October-September) to fall to 2.67 million tons (0.02 million more than in July), down from 3.30 (July: 3.15) million in 2022-23. Sugar imports as such are still seen falling to 1.9 million tons from 2.54 (July: 2.4) million, while imports in processed products are seen rising marginally to 770,000 tons from 760,000 (bot at 750,000 tons in July).

EU sugar exports are expected to rebound somewhat in 2023-24 to 3.370 (a mere 8,000 tons less than in July) million tons, up from 3.210 (July: 3.170) million in 2022-23. Sugar exports as such are seen rising to 750,000 (July: 728,000) tons from 580,000 (520,000), while exports in processed products are seen falling 10,000 tons to 2.62 million tons (both at 2.65 million tons in July).

Consumption in the EU-27 is now projected to be unchanged at 14.85 million tons in 2023-24. In July, the Commission saw consumption falling marginally to 14.75 million tons in 2023-24 from 14.80 million a year earlier. Use for ethanol is still seen flat on the year at 550,000 tons, while sugar use for industrial purposes is now seen rising to 750,000 tons in the new season from 700,000. Other use (mainly food) is seen down at 13.55 million tons in the new season from 13.60 million, the same as in July.

All in all, the bloc is expected to end the 2023-24 season with stocks nearly as tight as this one, at 1.417 million tons compared to 1.367 million, the Commission said.

Oct 03 - Low crop estimates are raising prices for Turkish hazelnuts (IHSmarkit)

- Crop is estimated at around 600,000 metric tons against the initial estimated of 718,000-730,000 metric tons
- Gradual fall in the average yield
- 60% y/y increase in TMO’s official prices

The USDA has projected a Turkish hazelnut production of around 600,000 (in-shell) metric tons, due to latest reports from farmers, against the office estimates of around 718,000-730,000 metric tons released by the Turkish Statistics Agency (TurkStat) and the Turkish Union of Chambers of Agriculture, raising prices.

There are around 725,000 hectares of hazelnut trees in origins around the Black Sea, although its average yield is gradually falling as farmers are minimizing purchases of inputs and most trees are older than 50 years old.

The Turkish government announced an official price of TRY84/kg ($3.05/kg) for Giresun quality and TRY82.5/kg for Levant for the Turkish Grain Board’s (TMO) purchases, 60% more year-on-year. The TMO pays growers 21-days after receiving hazelnuts in its warehouses. Meanwhile, processors are paying TRY90/kg as most players expect a disappointing supply. for Giresun quality.

The Union of Hazelnut Agriculture Sales Cooperatives (Fiskobirlik) is purchasing small volumes, paying TRY98/kg for the lowest quality of the Giresun variety.

In addition, Ferrero, the largest purchaser, is paying TRY80/kg. Ferrero accounts for around a third of the total sales, driving prices. On the other hand, the TMO and Fiskobirlik aim to stabilize prices in the local market to secure local consumption and high revenues for farmers.

Oct 03 - Farmers plant more cocoa outside Africa as prices rally
Production of the chocolate-making ingredient is expanding outside of the main growing area in West Africa as farmers in places such Brazil, Ecuador and Colombia see potential profit in the crop. The rally in prices to the highest level in nearly 50 years is boosting that trend, which could alleviate the current supply tightness in the global cocoa market.  

Oct 03 - Honduran coffee exports seen falling on bad weather, costly inputs
Honduran coffee exports for the new season will likely total some 4.98 million 60-kg (132-lb) bags, down 6.6% from the previous crop, national coffee institute IHCAFE said on Monday, citing adverse weather and limits on fertilizer supplies due to higher costs. Honduran coffee exporters shipped 5.34 million bags in the just-concluded 2022/2023 harvest, according to preliminary IHCAFE data, below the 5.5 million bags previously estimated.

Sep 30 - Madagascar cloves prices move sharply upwards (IHSmarkit)

- Rush of buying on new crop material
- Importers keen to cover from Madagascar due to low output elsewhere
- Madagascar’s 2023 crop estimated in the range of 18,000-20,000 metric tons

Madagascar cloves prices have escalated in recent weeks due to strong demand following the start of the 2023 crop in the south of the island around 10 days ago. The upward surge in pricing is despite the fact that Madagascar is expected to have a good crop. The main problem is that other global origins are struggling with their crops and this has put excessive early buying pressure towards Madagascar as the main viable option.

Gregoire Courme of French trader Aromatum told S&P Global Commodity Insights that local prices for cloves in Madagascar increased by 20-25% since the start of the crop. The crop in this region is expected to be in the range of 4,000-6,000 metric tons.

In the north of Madagascar the official start of the crop is on 15 October. The crop from this region is forecast to reach 12,000-14,000 metric tons, but Courme explained that he believes it might end up higher than this. Either way, Madagascar as a whole should achieve a 2023 cloves crop of around 18,000-20,000 metric tons, he suggested.

Local cloves prices of 20,000 Malagasy ariary ($4.37) per kilo were reported from the north of Madagascar for early September and now these are said to be at MGA26,000-28,000/kg.

Strong local demand
“We are just at the beginning of the crop so perhaps the price will decrease or perhaps it will increase. The problem at the present time is that demand on the local market is high so the price rises and the market is bullish because India is there. Some Indian shippers are in the bush and they pay the farmer directly,” Courme said.
- Emmanuel Nee, head of the ingredients department at French trader Touton, reported that there are high numbers of Indian buyers now present in Madagascar to purchase direct from cloves farmers. Moreover, these Indian buyers are tough negotiators.

India has very limited carry-over of cloves so needs to cover now. According to estimates from Touton, India’s annual cloves consumption amounts to 15,000-16,000 metric tons. Unlike Indonesia, its usage is in food.
“They will buy whatever happens and they will push the price up,” Nee suggested.

Courme expects US buyers to wait for Brazil’s new crop. Brazil’s 2023 cloves crop is expected to be only average, meaning in the range of 3,000-5,000 metric tons.

Global shortage
Touton has calculated that the world cloves industry will be short by 28,000-30,000 metric tons this year. Nee noted that this is significant in a market normally thought to amount to a total supply of 120,000-150,000 metric tons.
“Indonesia is for the third time short in production. They estimate the crop to be around 45,000-50,000 metric tons whereas a normal crop in Indonesia is roughly around 100,000 metric tons,” Nee explained.

Comoros is pegged to produce about 2,000 metric tons this year versus an estimated 7,000 metric tons in 2022; Zanzibar perhaps 3,000-4,000 metric tons in 2023; Tanzania 1,000-1,500 metric tons.
“Sri Lanka is a nightmare. It is now very difficult to have a reliable supply from Sri Lanka and Brazil will be very short too. In the middle of this Madagascar is offering quite a good crop, in the area of 20,000 metric tons,” Nee added.

The net result of this is a rush of demand on Madagascar. “Everyone is there. The Chinese, the Indians, traders, industries from Indonesia. Everybody is requiring cloves from Madagascar although the crop is just starting right now so the volumes are not there. So it is a war,” Nee added. The appearance of buyers from South America seems to confirm expectations for a shortfall from Brazil.

Touton’s manager is currently in Madagascar and he told Nee that he had never seen so many global buyers out “in the bush” (i.e. visiting growing areas). The timing is bad as ideally these buyers should have waited for the higher volumes to become available. “It’s a mess,” Nee observed.
Opening new crop prices in Madagascar

Courme observed that cloves prices from the south of Madagascar started from the end of August at MGA12,000-14,000/kg. “We are now at MGA20,000 per kg,” he added. Currently it is difficult to obtain offers because most of the new crop cloves are not yet ready to be shipped. However, Courme suggested that export offers on new crop cloves from the south of Madagascar are likely to be from $8,000 per metric ton FOB upwards. He anticipates price offers from the north of Madagascar to open in mid-October from $8,500/t FOB but some industry sources have predicted prices of more than $9,000/t FOB from this region.

Based on the current scenario, Madagascar cloves prices could reach $9,500/t FOB in January 2024.

Nee indicated current prices of $9,000/t CIF EMP and $8,750/t CIF Singapore.

Prominence of Indonesia as an importer
Courme recalled that in 2022 Indonesia was the main market for Madagascar cloves. This is confirmed by GTA customs data which shows that last year Indonesia imported 25,105 metric tons of cloves of which 19,517 metric tons or 77.7% was from Madagascar. Tanzania accounted for much of the balance with 4,774 metric tons or 19% of Indonesia’s 2022 cloves imports total.

In H1 2023 Indonesia already imported 20,750 metric tons of cloves of which 17,061 metric tons or 82% was from Madagascar.

It is difficult to know the current export quoted price from Indonesia but it is thought to be at least $9,500/t FOB. The 2023 crop is a small one but after three consecutive disappointing crops a bumper one is expected next year.

Courme suggested that if Indonesia’s kretek cigarette manufacturers are also expecting the country to have a hefty cloves crop next year then they will not be major buyers so Madagascar will have enough material to supply the global market. Conversely, if it transpires that Indonesia has another small cloves crop then it will be an active buyer and this will push prices higher.

Nee cited Touton’s estimates that Indonesian kretek manufacturers typically consume as much as 100,000 metric tons per year. Based on this, Indonesia will not feature as a cloves exporter in 2024, he predicted.

Aromatum expects improved availability of Madagascar cloves by mid-November, leading to a possible slight easing in prices. “Until the middle of November the price will be firm because we will not get enough goods from Madagascar to supply the demand,” Courme predicted. Indian buying will also be a key determinant of what direction prices take over the mid-November to end of December period, according to Courme. “After January, if Indonesia has a bumper crop most of the people will expect the cheapest price from Indonesia and India will go back to Indonesia for cloves and the price of Madagascar could drop a little bit,” he added.

Nee said he envisages prices holding high for the remainder of 2023 and most likely into early 2024. Moreover, he noted that the outcome of Indonesia’s 2024 crop will not be known for another 10 months so at this stage it cannot be assumed that it will in fact end up as a bumper one.
“I do not believe they (the Indonesian buyers) will keep away from the market looking at the Indians buying without doing anything because they cannot be sure that the next [Indonesian] crop will be good and industries in Indonesia can’t work without having stocks especially knowing that when they buy cloves they will not use them this year but the year after, because they need the cloves to go into a fermentation process in the warehouse,” Nee added.

Election concerns
Courme raised concerns that 9 November presidential elections in Madagascar could lead to turmoil if the results go against the hopes of the population. He viewed this as possibly prompting some of the early purchasing seen lately as importers want to ensure they have coverage ahead of any potential disruption to logistics etc.

However, Nee noted that any political protests are invariably limited to Antananarivo, the capital city, and do not have any impact on the port city of Tamatave (also known as Toamasina). “I have seen situations in Madagascar that were much more difficult some years back and they kept on exporting. The only issue we can face is if customs or the port is closed but it never lasts for long,” Nee explained.

Sep 29 - ASIA COFFEE-Local prices ease amid tepid trade in Vietnam (Reuters)

- Vietnam’s coffee market remained lacklustre, with local prices falling this week ahead of the new harvest, while prices in Indonesia were lower following global cues and a stronger dollar, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, were selling beans for 65,900-66,700 dong ($2.70-$2.73) per kg, down from 67,300-68,100 dong last week.
“Prices witnessed a fall due to weaken dong and stronger dollar,” said a trader based in the coffee belt. “Domestic prices dipped also in line with global prices.”

Traders said coffee trees were in good condition and beans would arrive in November.
“Some local farmers are quoting 55,000-56,000 dong per kg for new beans,” another trader based in the same region said.

January robusta coffee shed $118 in a week, settling at $2,346 per metric ton, as of Wednesday’s close.

Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at discounts of $40-$50 per ton to the January contract.

In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at $450 premium to the November contract this week, $30 lower from last week.
“Coffee price is down due to the rising dollar,” a trader said.
Another trader said prices were also down $20 from last week, now at a $500 premium this week to the October contract. ($1 = 24,400 dong)

Sep 28 - Disappointing Czech poppyseed crop expected to raise prices (IHSmarkit)

- Crop estimated downgraded by 21-32%
- Bullish price trend in the long-term
- 7% m/m increase in Turkish white poppyseed prices

Poppyseed prices are expected to increase due to a disappointing crop in Czechia. Czechia’s 2023 blue poppyseed crop might range from 13,000-15,000 metric tons, 21-32% down from the latest official estimate due to severe drought and as farmers are turning to other products such as wheat, maize, mustard and rapeseeds as their prices are at records since the Russia-Ukraine war started, according to trading sources.

Czech and Turkish poppyseeds prices started a bearish trend in April 2023. European blue poppy seed was quoted at $2,568/metric ton CFR NEW MED in August, slightly down from $$2,599 in July and 29% less year-on-year, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Turkish white poppyseeds 99.9% pure were priced at $3,515/metric ton in August, 7% more m/m and 13% less y/y.

Sep 27 - Sesame Seed Update: September 2023 (IHSmarkit)

- 10% y/y increase in Pakistan’s crop
- Ethiopian Fob prices have reached $1,900/metric ton
- Brazil strengthens its role as a key supplier of sesame seeds to India

International sesame seed prices have stabilized at highs, although importers are seeing a clearer outlook once Pakistan has started to ship its new crop to China and Sudan is able to export its through Port Sudan as southern origins and routes between the former and the latter are controlled by the army.

In addition, all African origins are expanding their planted area due to high prices as a consequence of concerns about supply due to the Sudanese civil war and the coup d’état in Niger, an important Chinese supplier, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal and Tanzania having seen a window of opportunity. In addition, Brazil has strengthened its role as a key Indian supplier and its farmers are aiming to plant sweet varieties to increase export to markets willing to pay high prices for high-quality product such as South Korea and Japan.

In addition, China has announced that its planted area will reach around 1.15 million hectares, up from 1 million hectares in the previous season.

All this data makes importers limit purchases as they are now worried about a messy supply chain.

India
India’s Kharif sesame production is expected to reach 3.63 million metric tons, 54% less year-on-year, due to unfavorable weather, bringing the seasonal production to 7.5 million metric tons, 5% less y/y and 25% lower than the initial goal of the government.
However, this data might change as farmers have increased their sown area to 2.06 million hectares, 34% more y/y, as they are conscious about the global shortage. That means India might need to raise imports to around 100,000 metric tons in 2023.

Spot prices averaged 18,300 rupees per quintal ($2,073/metric ton) in the Unjha (Gujarat, Northwest) wholesale market on 25 September, 5% more month-on-month and 34% more year-on-year. Futures prices are also stabilized at INR18,300-18,500/quintal for deliveries from October-December.

Indian sesame seed exports fell by 1% y/y to 148,620 metric tons but grew by 17% y/y to $310.7 million in January-July 2023. The main importers were South Korea (15,330 metric tons, -40% y/y); China (12,632 metric tons, -11% y/y); and the US (10,1017 metric tons, +1% y/y). Imports reached 61,730 metric tons in January-July 2023, up from 14,117 metric tons in the same period in 2022. The main suppliers were Sudan and Brazil, accounting for 46% and 37%, respectively.

China
China’s imports fell by 30% y/y to 550,680 metric tons in January-August 2023. Niger, Sudan and Togo were the main suppliers, accounting for 29%, 18% and 16%, respectively.
Niger (West Africa) has supplied around 153,380 metric tons to China in the first semester, emerging as a key supplier and cutting market share to other African origins such as Sudan or Ethiopia. However, the current political instability in Niger after a military group deposed the president, heralds logistics bottlenecks similar to the ones suffered by Ethiopia.
Niger has been selling its crop to China at prices slightly lower than the range from $1,750-1,850/metric ton negotiated by East African origins (Tanzania, Mozambique and Ethiopia). Chinese importers are keeping an eye on the Pakistani harvest just now.

Sudan
Sesame seeds are planted in the Gadaref region, a southern area close to Ethiopia, currently controlled by the army and enjoying reasonable stability.
The market is quiet as Sudanese exporters are asking for around $2,250/metric ton FOB which few importers are willing to pay.
In addition, there is a key factor: a good and safe logistics corridor between the Gadaref sesame growing area and Port Sudan. It is a major incentive for Sudanese exporters to push their sesame.

A lorry may take five-six hours between warehouses within this region and Port Sudan, not suffering assaults, which is why many Sudanese believe today that sesame will be their main export crop in 2024.

Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s exports rose by 2% y/y to 91,720 metric tons in January-August 2023. The main importers were Israel, the UAE and Turkey, accounting for 36%, 17% and 11%, respectively.
Whitish Wollega grade 3-5 averaged $1,900/metric ton FOB Djibouti, 10% more m/m and 50% more y/y.

Nigeria

Nigeria has started to ship its new crop with prices crossing $2,300/metric ton CIF Hamburg for white seeds. Its exports reached 138,397 metric tons in H1 2023, 34% less y/y.

Pakistan
Pakistan has been expanding its crop, encouraged by Chinese importers. Its 2023 crop has already been harvested, having reached around 220,000 metric tons in 2023 (+10% y/y), after being hit by floods in the previous season.

Brazil
Brazil started to expand the sesame planted area under Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency (2019-23), after signing a trade deal with India. However, Brazilian exports to this Asian market have been at lows until 2022. July data confirms the sharp increase in international sales. Brazil’s exports reached 102,710 metric tons in January-August 2023, five tons more y/y. The main importers were India, Turkey and Guatemala, accounting for 36%, 21% and 20%, respectively.

Outlook
Concerns about a global supply shortage due to political instability in Sudan and Niger are calming down as China is expanding its local crop and Pakistan is expecting a bumper production. In addition, Sudan might have a bumper crop in the 2023-24 season as the army controls southern origins and routes between the former and Port Sudan, keeping an eye on Ethiopia, which exports through Djibouti.

Sep 27 - Indian cumin seed prone to price declines due to slow exports (IHSmarkit)

- Indian cumin seed exports this July were sharply lower
- Coriander seed, however, is drawing increased overseas buying
- Turmeric price losses expected to be short term blip

Indian cumin seed (jeera) futures are expected to remain under pressure due to sluggish exports.

In its Commodity Daily (Agri) report of 27 September SMC Global Securities noted that India exported about 7,100 metric tons of cumin seed in July 2023 compared with 19,400 metric tons in the same month last year. The firm noted that Indian cumin seed prices remain uncompetitive globally, which has subdued overseas demand and hampered exports.

China, a major buyer of Indian cumin seed, has reduced its purchases in recent months, impacting overall Indian cumin seed exports. “The possibility of China resuming purchases in October-November adds further uncertainty to market dynamics,” SMC Global Securities added.

The firm noted that drier weather conditions in Gujarat are expected to lead to increased arrivals, potentially capping any upward price movement. It predicted that Indian cumin seed prices are likely to trade in range of 59,200-61,400 rupees ($711-737.54) per quintal.

Coriander seed
- SMC Global Securities said October coriander seed (dhaniya) prices on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange are likely to trade down on adequate stocks in the market. “However, losses are likely to be limited due to increased export demand,” it added.

India exported about 9,100 metric tons of coriander seed in July 2023 compared with 2,600 metric tons in the same month last year. China, Malaysia and the UAE have been the major buyers of Indian coriander this year. Going forward, prices are expected to move up in the wake of price seasonality.

SMC Global Securities forecasts Indian coriander seed prices to trade in a range of INR6,800-7,200/quintal.

Turmeric
- Turmeric prices slumped further on surging selling pressure in the market driven by an improved production outlook. Market participants offloaded their positions in anticipation of a rise in supplies in the coming months.
“Demand has been subdued at prevailing levels as most of the produce are coming in the market are inferior quality. Losses are likely to be limited on better export prospects. Demand for turmeric in both developed and developing countries has improved leading to an increase in export by 25%,” SMC Global Securities noted.

Between January and August 2023, 117,000 metric tons of turmeric was exported from the country, which compared with 111,000 metric tons during the same period last year.

Turmeric prices are expected to trade in a range of INR13,100-14,200/quintal.

Guar seed and guar gum
- Guar seed October futures are expected to remain under pressure due to muted demand in the domestic market. Fresh arrivals are expected to improve by the end of September and this is keeping stockists away from bulk buying. However, overall production of guar is estimated to be down 10-15% against the last year due to lower acreages that will restrict the major losses in prices.

SMC Global Securities suggested that guar seed prices are likely to face resistance near INR6,050/quintal whereas support is likely to be seen at INR5,650/quintal. Gum prices are likely to trade in a range of INR11,300-12,200/quintal.

Mentha oil
- Mentha oil prices are expected to trade down due to sluggish export demand of menthol. India exported about 1,500 metric tons of menthol in July 2023 compared with 1,900 metric tons in July 2022.

Its overall export of menthol was reported at 4,200 metric tons during the period of April-July 2023 against the 5,200 metric tons of the previous year. However, short covering is likely to be seen any time due to limited supplies in the market that will cap the major losses in mentha oil.

SMC Global Securities predicted that mentha oil October prices are likely to find support near INR920 and resistance can be seen at INR972.

Sep 26 - Hazelnut Update: September 2023 (IHSmarkit)

- Strong upward momentum in Turkish hazelnut prices
- 2023 crop estimate sharply lowered
- Turkish hazelnut exporters are in a ‘delicate situation’

Turkish hazelnut prices have escalated sharply over the last month due to downward revisions to the 2023 crop estimate and early demand for new crop material.

Unsurprisingly, views on this recent demand vary. Some sources report that it has been mostly within Turkey itself with little if any buying emerging from elsewhere. Others cite instances of an upturn in activity from European purchasers.

S&P Global Commodity Insights own prices data confirms the upward pricing trend with 11-13 raw hazelnuts latest (21 September) quotes at $8,500 per metric ton CIF CPT Europe compared with $6,550/t CIF CPT Europe on 24 August.

Spain’s 2023 hazelnut production is expected to reach 7,870 kernel metric tons (around 20,000 in-shell metric tons), 12% less year-on-year as trees are in an off-season (most nut trees alternates one season with a high yield and another with a low), on 13,000 hectares, according to the Spanish Almond and Hazelnut Association (Almendrave) and the ministry of agriculture.

Almendrave has highlighted that this data does not match the forecast released by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Association (INC) in May 2023 (2,500 in-shell metric tons), its officers not having clarified which data its estimate relies on.

Catalonia (northeast) is still the main origin, accounting for 88% of the volume.

Hazelnut trees are being damaged by severe drought, with farmers uprooting some trees due to low prices paid in the local market.

Farming associations reported that prices in the 2022-23 season averaged €2.50-2.75 ($2.65-2.92) in-shell per kg in the Reus wholesale market, 10% less than in the 2015-16 season despite rising purchases led by Nutella group.

Sep 26 - Ivory Coast’s cocoa grinding rise 9% y/y in August (IHSmarkit)

- Cumulative processing up 10.4% y/y
- Ivory Coast increases its grinding capacity
- ICCO projects an increase of 6% y/y in 2022-23

Ivory Coast’s cocoa beans grinding totaled 64,181 metric tons in August, according to the exporters' association GEPEX. This reflects a growth of nearly 6% from the previous month and 9% from August 2022. Cumulative cocoa processing in the 2022-23 season, which started in October 2022, amounted to 647,489 metric tons of beans, up 10.4% compared with the same period last year.

The GEPEX data covers six of the largest grinding companies, including Barry Callebaut, Olam, and Cargill.

This increase confirms Ivory Coast’ efforts to increase its grinding capacity and participation in exports of cocoa semi-finished products, considering that the country’s cocoa production has been lower this season.

According to the latest International Cocoa Association (ICCO) quarterly report, cocoa processing in Ivory Coast for 2022-23 is projected at 750,000 metric tons, an increase of almost 6% compared with the previous season.

Sep 25 - EU bell pepper wholesale prices recover amid a short-term supply gap in August (IHSmarkit)

- The EU average wholesale price bounced by 3% m/m in August
- More California variety was planted
- Spain’s exports decreased y/y in January-July

The EU average wholesale price of bell peppers rebounded slightly by 3% m/m to €92 ($98.68) per 100kg in August, up 14% y/y, according to the European Commission. The price recovery followed consecutive decreases for three months; there was a steep fall of 26% m/m in July. The 12-month peak was €160 in April this year. The bounced price in August was partly due to the short-term supply gap, according to one industry source. The Netherlands has finished the season earlier while Spain’s Murcia already finished the season. Almeria’s bell pepper season is starting with small volumes; a significant production is expected to be in mid-October.

- Some Spanish growers are seeing a two-week delay for the season, which was caused by the extremely high temperature during the fruit setting. On a positive note, Spanish growers are satisfied with the prices they have received.

- On variety, growers have shifted more areas to California peppers this year, driven by strong demand from both the domestic and export markets; there has been a mention of a 30% increase y/y in planting areas for California variety in Murcia this season.

 - In Spain, on 15 September, the bell pepper average price of all varieties was quoted at €1.88/kg (up 3% y/y) ($2.01/kg) at Madrid wholesale market, according to Mercasa.

- Italian average wholesale price recovered to €0.91 per kilo in week two of September. The price moved in the range of €0.87-0.89 for the past five weeks, according to the institute of services for the agricultural food market. Currently, the market is buying mainly domestic produce.

In January-July, Spain’s bell pepper exports continued to decline to a three-year low of 469,400 metric tons, down 11% y/y. Germany remained the largest destination, with 152,000 metric tons, down 6% y/y.

Sep 25 - Vietnamese customs authority detects massive fraud on raw cashew nut imports (IHSmarkit)

- Volume: 78,000 metric tons
- Tariff: 5% on RCNs processed for the local market
- Disparity between Cambodian sales and crop

- The anti-smuggling unity of the Vietnamese customs authority has detected fraudulent imports of 78,000 metric tons of raw cashew nuts (RCNs) by local processors, police following a deeper criminal investigation. The unity analyzed import and export and inventory declarations of the trading company DPT Import-Export using management data technology for a one-year period. Customs authorities detected that the company had an inventory of 78,264 metric tons against one of 250 metric tons declared by DPT. That means the company had 78,214 metric tons of non-declared RCNs, aiming to sell them in the local market.

- The company avoided paying the 5% tariff on RCNs and favored smuggling of processed cashews, particularly to China. The fraud is estimated at around 2.496 billion Vietnamese dong ($107,070).

- Vietnamese authorities are very strict about tariffs on RCNs, eliminating them when raw cashews are focused for processing and exporting to avoid a sharp fall in Vietnamese RCN prices, particularly since Cambodia has become a key supplier.
Analysis

- There were rumors about smuggling through Cambodia since the second half of 2021, with Vietnamese imports of RCNs reaching over one million metric tons although official estimates were around 600,000 metric tons. Vietnam has built a powerful processing industry with a focus on exports and huge subventions relying on export revenues. If customs authorities confirm extended smuggling, the scenario might change.

Sep 22 - ASIA COFFEE-Vietnam sluggish ahead of new crop season; Indonesia premiums ease (Reuters)

- Coffee trading in Vietnam continued on a sluggish note this week due to empty stocks, with traders awaiting the new crop season that begins next month, while premiums eased slightly in Indonesia, traders said on Thursday. Coffee prices continued to edge up this week, with farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, selling beans for 67,300-68,100 dong ($2.77-$2.80) per kg, up from last week's 65,300-66,500 dong.
“Vietnam has run out of stocks and little left in Indonesia,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.
“No selling pressure or purchase competition currently, so the prices will be stable around 65,000-68,000 dong.”

- Vietnam’s new crop season begins in October in theory, but beans will not come in bulk until late November, traders said.

- November robusta coffee settled down $32 at $2,508, as of Wednesday’s close.

- Meanwhile, Indonesia’s Sumatra robusta beans were offered at a premium of $480 to the November contract this week, down $20 from a week ago.
“It is because price was down in London terminal. I reckon the price will continue to go down but in a slow pace,” one trader said.
Another trader quoted $520 premium to the October contract, compared with $500-$520 premium range last week.

Sep 22 - India unlikely to export sugar in 2023/24 season, says ED&F Man Commodities
India is unlikely to export sugar in 2023-24 season as output will be less than a year earlier, Kona Haque, head of research at ED&F Man Commodities said on Thursday. India's absence from the world market would be likely to increase benchmark prices in New York and London that are already trading around multi-year highs, triggering fears of further inflation on global food markets.

Sep 21 - Low Vietnamese and Indonesian pepper crops herald bullish prices (IHSmarkit)

- 18% y/y fall in Vietnam’s pepper crop projected
- Fall in Indonesian production
- Chinese imports at lows

Pepper prices might follow a bullish trend from Q4 onwards as the Indonesian production is continuing to fall, after data unveiled once the harvest has concluded between July-August, and the Vietnamese is projected to fall by 18% year-on-year to around due to the combination of farmers turning to other crops such as tropical fruit and El Niño climatic effect, according to trading sources.

The gap price between the Vietnamese and Brazilian pepper has been reduced, although the latter is always aiming to be slightly lower than the former.
Meanwhile, the Indonesian pepper prices might grow due to limited supply.
Chinese imports are at lows as quotations for local crop are lower than those for the Vietnamese or the Brazilian.

S&P Global Commodity Insights listed the following quotations in August 2023 (CIF NW Europe):


Sep 21 - Conab trims 2023 Brazil coffee output forecast due to climate (CONAB , IHSmarkit)

- 54.4 million 60-kg bags expected, down from 54.7 million forecast in May
- Adverse climate impacts to blame for lower output
- Arabica output: 38.2 million bags, Robusta: 16.2 million bags

Brazil’s food supply agency Conab lowered its estimate for the country’s 2023 coffee output, citing adverse climate conditions, with the country’s harvest concluding. This year’s production is now expected to total around 54.4 million 60-kg bags, a 6.8% y/y increase, but down from Conab’s May projection of 54.7 million bags.

The reduction stems from key regions facing low rainfall, extended droughts, and higher-than-average temperatures during much of the crop development, Conab said in its third harvest forecast on 20 September.

Arabica coffee production is estimated by Conab at 38.2 million bags this year, up from 37.9 million bags in the previous forecast and up 16.5% on a yearly basis. Robusta coffee output is estimated at 16.2 million bags, down 11% from 2022 and from a 16.8 million-bag estimate in May.

Conab highlighted 2023 as an “off-year” in the biennial production cycle, but noted that climate issues influenced this year’s crop, resulting in lower output.

The third forecast, published after 95% of the coffee crop harvest had been completed in late August, indicates that, compared with 2021’s “off-year” harvest, when 47.7 million bags were produced, this year’s harvest is 13.9% higher.

Sep 21 - U.S. Almond Update: September 2023 ( IHSmarkit )

- Weather developments being closely monitored
- US almond sector undeterred by marginal decline in shipments in first month of new season
- Sellers very cautious

Price indications
Palm Nuts & More noted that standard 5% for November is said to have traded at $1.58/lb FAS, and the seller then asked for $1.60/lb FAS.

It listed the following further price examples:-

    Cal/Carmel 27/30aol SSR for December-January are expected to be in the range of $1.72-1.75/lb FAS.
    Carmel/C. type 27/30 aol supreme is at $1.80/lb FAS.
    Carmel/C. type 23/25 aol supreme is at $1.90/lb FAS.
    Nonpareil 25/27aol USX#1 is at $2.15/lb FAS.
    Nonpareil 23/25aol USX#1 is at $2.20/lb FAS.

Dutch broker Global Trading & Agency recalled: “Over the past few weeks the almond market has firmed a little, the reason for this is most packers/handlers in California are now in a comfortable sold position for the 22 crop carry over with the August position report showing near record shipments for the period and strong forward commitments/sales. The past few weeks sales have been slower as California pull back from sales but this may not show in the position report until October and there is still a mountain to climb for California to sell and ship the total estimated supply of 3.40 billion lbs this season.”

Gerhard remarked: “Many markets were active over the last month as attractive price levels persisted up to harvest. Price has since firmed over quality concerns of the initial deliveries of the 2023 crop causing packers to take a more conservative approach until more of the crop is received and reviewed.” 

Sep 20 - Sharp fall in Mexican vanilla production (IHSmarkit)

- 16% y/y fall in production
- Largest origin: Veracruz (center east)
- High gap between local prices and quotations paid by US and Canadian processors

Mexico’s vanilla production reached 515 (fresh) metric tons, 16% less year-on-year, on 798 hectares, 30% less y/y in 2022, according to Mexican government data. The largest origin was Veracruz (center east), accounting for 78% of the volume. Mexico has halted its growth pace, after reaching a record of 609 metric tons on 1,046 hectares in 2022. Mexico has a potential crop of 1,200 metric tons currently, although many farmers have turned to other crops due to the gradual fall in prices and assaults to plantations.

Processors are currently paying 500 Mexican pesos/kg ($27.7/kg), which is half the average price paid in the previous season. Meanwhile, long-term contracts with US and Canadian processors reached MXN20,000/kg.

The Mexican government included vanilla in its promotion policies although severe drought, robberies and bearish trends have jeopardized its long-term goal of a 4,000 metric tonne production on 7,000 hectares.

Vanilla beans were originally planted by native Central Americans, being taken by the Spaniards to Europe in the 16th century. Mexico is a large and traditional grower but is focused on the local market, exporting only low volumes of high-quality product. 

Sep 19 - Sudan’s peanut and gum Arabic production set to fall sharply due to conflict (IHSmarkit)

- 25-30% y/y fall in peanut and gum Arabic productions expected
- Gum Arabic prices at record highs as processors are willing to pay rewards to secure supply
- Optimistic acumen in the sesame seed industry

The Sudanese civil war is worsening, logistics areas around Khartoum suffering bottlenecks and origins not controlled by the army gradually losing their workforce, heralding a sharp fall in the peanut and gum Arabic production, according to trading sources.

The local peanut and gum Arabic crops are expected to fall by 25-30% year-on-year against average, the general manager of FAAS Trade, Fares Oufi, told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Peanuts are a staple food in the local gastronomy and armed assaults against lorries driving to Khartoum and Port Sudan are frequent. “Criminals ask high rewards as they know they can sell peanuts in local markets,” Oufi explained.

Currently, Chinese importers are willing to pay around $1,050/metric ton although exporters are reluctant to sell below $1,150-1,200/metric ton FOB.

Gum Arabic is a different case as it is not at the core of daily consumption. European and US processors are running out of stocks as Sudan is the only origin which can replenish their stocks and they are starting to be worried about an international supply shortage. Prices have been quoted at $3,000/metric ton FOB for Grade 1, a record. Processors are willing to pay rewards to secure supply. “There are acacia trees in other origins such as Chad, Nigeria or Senegal although processors know Sudan is the main acacia tree origin and there is news about trees non-prepared to collect the gum as farmers are cautious about any countryside task, many of them having fled to bordering countries such as Chad or Egypt,” Oufi added.

Peanuts and gum Arabic are collected in areas hit by the civil war. “There is labor shortage and both productions might hit the rock bottom,” Oufi said.

Other origins such as Senegal, Mozambique or Tanzania are expanding their peanut planted area. Gum Arabic is collected from acacia trees and to find alternative origins is not easy in the mid and long-term.

Sesame
Sesame seeds are planted in southern origins close to Ethiopia, controlled by the army and enjoying social stability.
“Sudan is the largest global sesame seed origin and will remain as growers have an optimistic acumen after a season enjoying high prices. Currently, the market is quiet as Sudanese exporters are asking for $2,250/metric ton FOB and no importer is willing to pay that despite its quality being high,” Oufi continued.
“They are keeping an eye on the Ethiopian prices, not being influenced by western origins such as Burkina Faso or Nigeria. If Ethiopian prices cut prices, they might follow this trend,” he concluded.

In addition, there is a key factor: good communication infrastructure between sesame seed origins and Port Sudan. A lorry may take five-six hours between warehouses and Port Sudan, not suffering assaults.

Sep 19 - Walnut Update: September 2023 (IHSmarkit)
18 Sep 2023 - Food and Agricultural Commodities | Headline Analysis - China (mainland)- India- Japan- Turkey- Ukraine- United States- Eurozone- Chile
Policy & Regulation, Prices, Supply, Demand, Production, Exports, Freight & Transportation, Organics, Weather, Stocks, Climate Change

- Record domestic sales in the US
- 12% y/y increase in Chile’s seasonal exports 
- Bullish price outlook

The US walnut industry has closed the 2022-23 season with a promising scenario, having recorded high exports and record domestic sales. Meanwhile, China is still recording high exports and Chile has only around 15,000 metric tons to sell out before Diwali (November) and Christmas (December) festivities. That means a bullish price outlook after several months digesting huge carry-over stocks.

California
Californian walnut shipments rose by 52% year-on-year to 55.4 million lbs thanks to domestic sales in August 2023, bringing seasonal sales to (September-August) to 730.48 million lbs, 14% more y/y. Californian domestic sales were 257.1 million lbs in 2022-23 season, 32% more y/y, accounting for 48% of shipments in the 2023-24 season against 35% in the previous.

Exports totalled 460.8 million lbs, 1% down from the 2021-22 season. The main seasonal in-shell importers were Turkey with 91.8 million lbs (+3% y/y), the UAE with 41.1 million lbs (+59%y/y) and Italy with 23.9 million lbs (-40% y/y). Meanwhile, the main kernel importers were Germany (54.1 million lbs, -29% y/y) and Japan (37.9 million lbs, -10.4% y/y).

The updated carry-out projection now stands at 112,000 metric tons, showing a 17.4% decrease compared to the 136,673 tons carried forward from the previous year. 

California’ 2023 walnut crop is projected to rise by 5% y/y to 790,000 short metric tons (716,676 metric tons) although the bearing area fell by 4% y/y to 385,000 acres as some farmers uprooted trees due to the combination of low moisture in soils, weak prices for walnuts and rising production costs, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service reported in its 2023 objective estimate. Average yield is forecast to increase by 2% y/y to 1,004 nuts per tree. A cold winter and wet winter and spring restored soil moisture, improving also the average quality of nuts.

The Californian walnut industry has shown flexibility, after several key processors recommended uprooting trees to cut carry-over stocks and stabilize prices as inflation has hit consumption of nuts. In addition, growers have done it without being far from this potential from 750,000-850,000 metric tons thanks to combined actions co-led by the USDA and the California Walnut Board (CWB).

Chile
Chile’s 2023 crop was 170,000 metric tons, 9% less y/y, having already shipped around 62%. Currently, there is around 15,000 metric tons available for exports, with 5,000-7,000 metric tons stocked to cover the local consumption.

Chilean walnut prices are slightly growing, with exporters accelerating processing of large sizes, according to the Chilean processor and exporter La Invernada in its latest market update.

Prices are starting a slight recovery for in-shells and are growing strongly for kernels, due to shortage of the latter, with Indian and EU importers raising their budgets to cover the demand during the Diwali and Christmas festivities.

Chilean exports rose by 1% y/y to 19,706 metric tons (in-shell basis) this August, bringing seasonal sales (March-August) to 110,414 metric tons (+12% y/y). The main seasonal in-shell importers were India with 36,473 metric tons (+104% y/y) and Turkey with 18,715 metric tons (+18% y/y). The main seasonal kernel purchaser was Spain with 3,246 metric tons (+21% y/y).

Trading sources listed the following fob prices for Chilean walnuts in August:

    In-shell, Chandler 30-34 mm: $2.35-2.60/kg, stagnant month-on-month and 4% less y/y
    In-shell, Chandler 34-36 mm: $3.35-3.50/kg, ten cents up from June and 4% more y/y
    In-shell, Chandler over 36 mm: $4.10-4.30/kg, 8% more m/m and y/y
    Kernel, ELLHP40: $6.00-6.25/kg, stagnant m/m and 13-30% more y/y
    Kernel, ELLHP80: $7.80-8.20/kg, stagnant m/m and 20-26% more y/y

Sep 18 - Ivory Coast cocoa growers push for 44% price hike in 2023-24 season (IHSmarkit)

- 44% proposed hike to XOF 1,300/kg
- 2023-24 price reveal set for 1 October
- Global cocoa prices have surged in 2023

Cocoa growers in Ivory Coast are urging authorities to raise the minimum farmgate price for the 2023-24 season by 44% to XOF 1,300/kg ($2.11/kg). The request was made by the Ivorian Platform for Sustainable Cocoa (PICD) in a statement.

PICD, representing the nation's cocoa producers, revealed that the official price for the 2023-24 crop will be announced around 1 October. Its statement expressed growers' sentiment: “Cocoa growers are holding out hope that the field gate price of cocoa will reflect the price rise seen in international markets.”

For context, Ivory Coast, a leading cocoa producer, set the 2022-23 season's minimum farmgate price at XOF900/kg, marking a XOF75/kg increase from the prior season. Current estimates – cited by PICD –place the production cost of cocoa at XOF677.21/kg. This translates to a real income of roughly XOF222.79/kg for farmers, based on the past season's farmgate price, according to PICD.

The group also emphasized the global cocoa price dynamics: “Since the start of 2023, the price of a metric ton of cocoa has surged from $2,560 in January to $3,660 in September in the New York market, and from £1,994 ($2,469) to £2,990 in the London market.”

With this backdrop, PICD highlighted the expectation that authorities consider such factors, referencing Ghana’s recent farmgate price setting of around XOF1,126/kg.

Ivory Coast is also attempting to increase its grinding capacity and participation in exports of cocoa semi-finished products. The country’s cocoa beans grinding totaled 60,483 metric tons in July despite the lower production seen in recent months, according to the exporters' association GEPEX.

Sep 15 - ASIA COFFEE-Trading dull ahead of Vietnam's new harvest; Indonesia premiums flat (Reuters)

- Vietnam coffee prices edged up slightly amid sluggish trade ahead of the new harvest that commences in October, while prices remained steady in Indonesia on thin supplies, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans for 65,300-66,500 dong ($2.70-$2.75), up from 65,000-66,000 dong range a week ago.
“Market is dull as no beans left for sales while new beans have yet arrived,” a trader based in the region said. “Rains have been recorded in some parts of the Central Highlands but don’t harm the trees at this point.”

- November robusta coffee settled up $49 or 2%, at $2,479, as of Wednesday’s close.

- Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first eight months of 2023 stood at 1.2 million metric tons, a fall of 5.4% from the same period of last year, customs data showed. Coffee export revenue for the period reached $2.9 billion, up 3.1% against the January-August period of 2022.

- Indonesia’s Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at $500 premium to the November contract this week, unchanged from last week, one trader said adding the prices were stable. Another trader said this week’s prices were 20 points lower, at $500 premium this week to the October contract amid higher London price in the last two days. ($1 = 24,220 dong)

Sep 14 - Vietnamese cashew exports recovered a strong pace this August (IHSmarkit)

- 15.5% y/y increase in exports in January-August
- Ivory Coast, Cambodia and Ghana, the main suppliers of RCNs
- Record Ivorian production

Vietnam’s international cashew shipments rose by 11% year-on-year to 60,584 metric tons in August, bringing its global sales from January-August 2023 to 395,598 metric tons (+15.5% y/y) valued at $2.28 billion (+11.3% y/y).

The main importers were the US, China and the Netherlands, accounting for 23%, 15% and 10%, respectively.

Vietnam’s raw cashew nut (RCN) imports this August fell by 6% y/y to 341,628 metric tons, bringing its January-August RCN imports to 2.06 million metric tons, 35.4% more y/y.

The main suppliers were Cambodia (29.3% of the total), Ivory Coast (27.4%), Ghana (10.4%) and Nigeria (10.0%).
Analysis

Importers of raw and processed cashews are replenishing stocks, taking advantage of low prices as a result of global oversupply. However, the proximity of the Diwali festival in India is favoring a slight increase, WWW320 cashews being quoted at $2.41/lb in the week ending on 11 September, five cents up from August, according to trading sources.

Ivory Coast has emerged as the third largest global supplier of processed cashews, overtaking Brazil, after becoming the main supplier of RCNs. Ivory Coast has flooded the global market with a record crop of 1.4 million metric tons of RCNs in 2023 and is keeping a strong pace in processings, adding a bearish trend in prices. Meanwhile, Cambodia’s crop has fallen sharply with farmers uprooting trees after reaching a record in 2022.

As a result, Vietnamese processors might make African suppliers maintain low prices in the long-term.

Sep 14 - Turkish hazelnut prices show strong gains (IHSmarkit)

- Ferrero’s price of TRY80/kg compares with TMO’s TRY82.50/kg

Ferrero announced its Turkish hazelnuts buying price of 80 Turkish lira ($2.98) per kg in-shell on Monday, which is close to the Turkish Grain Board’s (TMO) price of TRY82.50 in-shell.

Prices in the general market increased following this announcement.

On Thursday, Olivier Telvi of UK trader Ronly Limited, which represents Turkish hazelnut processor Ronly Gida, observed that rain in the growing regions is causing further concern during the harvest period, also keeping prices firm for the time being.

“Feedback about the quality remains pessimistic for the time being, with a slightly better feeling in the western regions than in the eastern side of the Black Sea. We have also seen buyers who have been uncovered for Q4 come to the market for their prompt demand and put some inventory on the books for the upcoming busier period,” he added.

- Signs of panic buying after Ferrero’s announcement
- Slow arrival of raw materials after recent heavy rains
- Sellers increasingly cautious until volatility reduces


Turkish in-shell hazelnut prices have risen significantly since Ferrero’s announcement on Monday 4 September of its buying price.

Olivier Telvi of the UK trader Ronly Limited, which represents the Turkish hazelnut processor Ronly Gida, noted on Wednesday (13 September) that the price has increased to about 85-86 Turkish lira ($3.15-3.19) per kg compared with TRY70/kg around a month ago.

“This price increase is due to a few factors. First, Ferrero's announcement has created some panic buying among market players (some of whom had short positions). Second, the arrival of raw materials has been slow due to heavy rain in the growing regions last week. This has made sellers more cautious about offering their products until the volatility reduces,” Telvi explained.

He added that the current crop estimate is still around 650,000 metric tons “but of course we will not know for sure until later early next year”.

Sep 13 - Indian cumin seed futures supported by improved demand outlook (IHSmarkit)

- Favorable festival demand but dwindling supplies
- Cumin seed exports higher in Q1 (April-June) of 2023-24 season
- Turmeric prices also prone to upward pressure

- Indian cumin seed (jeera) futures prices are likely to remain higher due to better demand prospects, SMC Global Securities suggested in its Commodity Daily Report (Agri) of 14 September.The firm observed that festival demand has been good whereas supplies have declined and are likely to remain lower unless new crop touches the market. However, sluggish export demand is still a major concern for Indian traders as Indian cumin seed prices remained uncompetitive in the global market which kept overseas demand subdued. Official export data for July-August is due that will determine the further trend in prices.During April-June 2023, Indian cumin seed exports increased by 13.16% compared with the same period in 2022, reaching 53,399 metric tons.SMC Global Securities forecast that Indian cumin seed prices are likely to trade in a range of 60,000-65,000 rupees ($723.37-783.65) per quintal.

 Turmeric- Indian turmeric prices are expected to trade on a positive bias due to limited availability of quality produce at major trading centers amid rising festival buying.Crop prospects are weaker for the forthcoming season as the area under turmeric has dropped mainly in Maharashtra and Telangana which will prompt millers to buy turmeric with every dip in prices. However, improved crop condition in Maharashtra and Telangana supported by favorable weather condition in Maharashtra and Telangana is likely to cap the gains, SMC Global Securities added.Turmeric October prices are likely to trade in a range of INR13,600-14,900, the company predicted.

Coriander seed- October coriander seed (dhaniya) prices on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange prices are likely to trade higher with increased buying in the local market. Domestic and export demand for this product have increased in recent months.India exported about 11,300 metric tons of coriander seed in June 2023 compared with 2,400 metric tons in June 2022. India exported about 46,700 metric tons of coriander seed during April-June 2023 against the 8,700 metric tons of the first three months of the previous season.SMC Global Securities expects coriander seed prices to trade in a range of INR6,950-7,450/quintal.

Guar seed and guar gum- Guar seed September futures are expected to trade on a mixed note but possibly with a bias on the positive side.In the wake of better demand prospects and bleak production outlook, the downfall in guar prices is looking limited as drier weather condition in Rajasthan has hit the crop progress badly. The area under guar is already down by 10-12% in 2023 and now bleak yield prospects is likely to keep production down. Demand for guar derivative products has increased and this will support guar prices.SMC Global Securities suggested that guar seed prices are likely to face resistance near INR6,400/quintal whereas support is likely to be seen at INR6,000. Guar gum prices are likely to trade in a range of INR12,100-13,500/quintal.

Mentha oil- The mentha oil September contract is likely to trade down as a result of limited buying in the local market. “However, below normal supplies will cap the losses,” SMC Global Securities stated.It added that mentha oil prices are likely to trade in a range of INR910-960.

Sep 08 - Ivory Coast’s cocoa grinding maintains year-on-year growth in July (IHSmarkit)

- July cocoa grinding rises 5.7% y/y
- Government aims to increase cocoa processing to 50% of total production
- ICCO projects Ivorian cocoa grind at 750,000 metric tons

Ivory Coast’s cocoa beans grinding totaled 60,483 metric tons in July despite the lower production seen in recent months, according to the exporters' association GEPEX. This reflects a growth of almost 7% from the previous month and 5.7% from July 2022. Cumulative cocoa processing in the 2022-23 season, which started in October 2022, amounted to 583,308 metric tons beans, up 10.5% compared with the same period last year.

The GEPEX data covers six of the largest grinding companies, including Barry Callebaut, Olam, and Cargill.

In addition to being the world’s largest cocoa bean producer and exporter, Ivory Coast is also making progress with efforts to increase its grinding capacity and participation in exports of cocoa semi-finished products. The Ivorian government has a goal of increasing its cocoa grinding to 50% of the total cocoa beans produced, against the current level of 35-40%.

The International Cocoa Association (ICCO) forecasts cocoa processing in Ivory Coast at 750,000 metric tons in 2022-23, an increase of almost 6% compared with the previous season.

 

 

Sep 08 - Recovery in Indian cashew exports with prices stabilized at lows ( IHSmarkit )

- 31% y/y increase in exports in H1 2023
- Main importers: the UAE, Saudi Arabia and the Netherlands
- Main suppliers of raw cashew nuts: Ghana, Ivory Coast and Tanzania

India’s industry is fueling exports with prices at lows. Inflation has hit nut consumption, with a focus on cashews in the domestic market.

India’s cashew exports rose by 31% year-on-year in volume to 30,079 metric tons but fell by 2% y/y in value to $106.1 million in H1 2023, according to customs data.

- The main importers of cashew kernels (60% of the total volume) were the UAE, Saudi Arabia and the Netherlands, which took 39%, 12% and 11%, respectively, of the volume.
- India’s imports of raw cashew nuts (RCNs) fell by 10% y/y to 541,100 metric tons. The main suppliers were Ghana, Ivory Coast and Tanzania, which accounted for 29%, 17% and 16%, respectively.

The Indian cashew processing industry is seeing how the recovery in domestic consumption is not favoring an increase in sales, most players asking for promotion campaigns to recover the market share lost against almonds, walnuts and pistachios.

Sep 07 - ASIA COFFEE-Vietnam prices flat amid lacklustre trade until next harvest (Reuters)

- Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices were little changed on Thursday from a week earlier, with trading expected to remain subdued until the next harvest in October, traders said. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans for 65,000-66,000 dong ($2.70-$2.74) per kg, slightly up from last week's 64,900-66,000 dong.
“Stocks are also running out. We are in the last month of the crop season so trade is muted,” said a trader based in the coffee belt. “Beans are likely to come from November if everything goes well.”

- November robusta coffee settled up $3, at $2,456, as of Wednesday’s close, while the January contract settled down $7 at $2,360.

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount of $30-$70 per tonne to the January contract.

- Meanwhile, Indonesian Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at a $500 premium to the November contract this week, unchanged from a week ago.
“The harvest is done now. Coffee supplies are very limited,” one trader said. Another trader quoted beans at a $500-$520 premium this week to the October contract, the same as last week.
“Prices at the London terminal will not change much, while local coffee prices will be stable till the end of the harvest,” a second trader said.

Sep 04 - Cocoa futures hit 46-year high amid supply shortages (IHSmarkit)

- In London, the cocoa contract for December delivery hit a fresh 46-year high of £2,977 per metric ton ($3,773/t) on Thursday before closing at £2,950/t. The contract rose 9% from the price registered a month ago. London cocoa has been setting 46-year highs regularly since late June as the market continued to be supported by concerns over supply shortages and the forecast of a third successive global deficit.

- Similarly, New York cocoa settled at $3,638/t, after hitting a 12 and a half year high of $3,677/t earlier in the session. This is 3% higher the price registered a month ago.

- A Reuters poll published last week showed that the market expects a deficit of 173,000 metric tons for the 2023-24 season, up from an expected deficit of 128,000 for the current season. The world’s largest cocoa producer, Ivory Coast, is forecast to harvest 2.1 million metric tons of cocoa in 2023-24, down 5% from the previous season, according to poll participants.

Sep 04 - Sugar futures hit 12-year high amid dry weather in Asia
(IHSmarkit)

In London, the white sugar contract for October delivery ended at $715.20 per metric ton on Thursday, after rising to a 12-year high of $740.20/t in the previous day. This is 5% higher than a month ago, when the contract closed at $699/t. Second-month December became the most-actively traded contract for the first time and settled at $703.10/t on 31 August.

This recent increase is attributed the prospect of tightening supplies as the dry weather, linked to El Nino, threatens crops in key producing countries such as India and Thailand. India had its driest August in over a century, according to data from the India Meteorological Department. The department said that the El Nino weather event will also have a negative impact on September rainfall.

Similarly, the raw sugar contract for October delivery closed at 25.06 cents per pound in New York, after hitting a two-month high of 25.89 cents/lb a day earlier. This is 4% higher than a month earlier.

Despite the unfavorable weather in Asian countries, the consultancy Job Economia forecasts record sugar production and exports in Brazil in the current season, which could limit the rise in sugar prices.

Sep 04 - Indian cumin seed prices stabilized at around INR60,000/quintal (IHSmarkit)

- 4-7% y/y fall in futures prices for deliveries from September-November
- 60% y/y increase in export revenues in H1 2023
- China has slowed purchases between May-June

- Indian cumin seed futures and spot prices have stabilized at around 60,000 Indian rupees per quintal ($7,253/metric ton) with traders worried about cutting sales with prices at records. Indian cumin seed spot prices averaged INR60,286/quintal at the Unha market (Gujarat, northwest) on 4 September 2023, 3% less month-on-month and up from INR24,615/quintal on 4 September 2022.

- Indian cumin seed exports reached 83,407 metric tons valued at $311.3 million in H1 2023, 1% more y/y in volume and 60% more y/y in value, according to customs data. China, Bangladesh and the UAE were the main importers of whole cumin seeds (94% of the exported volume), accounting for 38%, 18% and 4%, respectively.

- The updated daily futures market price on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) was:

    Deliveries in August 2023 closed at INR59,250/quintal on 18 August, 2% less m/m
    INR57,650/quintal for deliveries in September 2023 on 1 September, 5% less m/m
    INR59,280/quintal for deliveries in October 2023 on 1 September, 7% less m/m
    INR60,910 /quintal for deliveries in November 2023 on 1 September, 4% less m/m
    INR62,540 /quintal for deliveries in December 2023 on 1 September, 1% less m/m.

- Chinese importers slowed their purchases between May-June (around 1,000 metric tons) against February-May (around 30,000 metric tons) as they might have replenished their stocks, Indian traders analyzing if momentum has finished and predicting that prices might stabilize at around INR60,000/quintal.

Aug 30 - Indian guar gum futures prices crossing INR13,000/quintal level (IHSmarkit)

India’s guar gum futures prices have crossed the 13,000 Indian rupee per quintal level due to supply shortage when oil prices are rising.
India’s guar gum spot price averaged 11,755 rupees per quintal ($1,190/metric ton) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 4 August 2023, 22% more year-on-year.
Indian guar gum exports fell by 58% y/y to 52,075 metric tons in H1 2023. The main importers were the US, which accounted for 27% and 20%, respectively.

The daily futures market prices on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) were:
    INR 13,288/q for deliveries in October 2023 on 18 August, 14% more m/m
    INR 13,509/q for deliveries in November 2023 on 18 August, 14% more m/m
    INR 13,730/q for deliveries in December 2023 on 18 August, 14% more m/m
    INR 13,951/q for deliveries in January 2024 on 18 August, 15% more m/m

Aug 30 - Cocoa prices stabilize amid lower production expected in Ghana
(IHSmarkit)

The cocoa bean price ended marginally higher last week as the market remained concerned over crop disease in West Africa, particularly in Ghana, and the prospect of a third successive global deficit in the 2023-24 season that begins in October.

The Ivorian cocoa bean price averaged €3,535 per metric ton ($3,842/t) CIF northern Europe last week, up 0.5% from the previous week and 56% from a year ago. Similarly, the Ghanaian cocoa bean price rose 0.5% y/y to an average of €3,688/t CIF UK last week. This is 48% higher than the price recorded last year. The current 2022-23 crop in the world’s second-largest cocoa producer is expected to total only 650,000 metric tons, well below the International Cocoa Organization's projection of 750,000 metric tons.

In the EU, both cocoa butter and paste factory price increased by 0.5% w/w to €7,016/t CIF northern Europe and $5,120/t CIF northern Europe, respectively. The EU powder price was unchanged at €3,000/t.

Aug 29 - Iran’s saffron industry closed 2022 with a strong recovery in export revenues (IHSmarkit)

- 31% y/y increase in revenues in 2022
- Main importers: the UAE, Spain and China
- Fall in Chinese tariffs might fuel exports in 2023

Firming Iranian saffron prices has favored a strong recovery in export revenues in 2022.

Iran’s saffron exports rose by 31% year-on-year in value to $201.5 million but fell by 30% y/y in volume to 215.7 metric tons. However, this data is far from the record of 277.1 metric tons valued at $370.2 million in 2018.

The main importers were the UAE, Spain and China, which accounted for 34%, 20% and 13%, respectively, of the volume.

Iranian saffron exports might reach pre-pandemic data despite high average prices due to Chinese purchases. The Chinese government has cut tariffs on Iranian saffron from 37% to 12-14% (depending on processing grade) and exporters expect China to overtake the UAE and Spain as the main importer.

Aug 29 - Vietnamese coffee export revenues increase (IHSmarkit)

- Coffee shipments estimated at 1.2 million metric tons
- Exports revenue up 3.3% y/y
- Vietnamese coffee prices in decline

Vietnam’s coffee exports between January and August 2023 are estimated to have decreased 4.9% year-on-year to 1.2 million metric tons, equivalent to 20 million 60 kg bags, according to data from the General Statistics Office. Coffee shipments in August are estimated at 90,000 metric tons, which would be around 20% lower than a year earlier.

In contrast, the agency said that exports revenue for the world’s largest robusta coffee producer, Vietnam, reached $3 billion in the first eight months of 2023, up 3.3% from the same period last year due to higher prices. Prices for Vietnamese robusta coffee grade 1 averaged $2.67 per kilo FOB in August, 20% more year-on-year. This increase was attributed to a supply shortage caused by extreme weather conditions.

In the previous report, industry officials predicted that this year’s coffee export revenue would exceed last year’s record of $4 billion.

However, local farmers reported that prices are edging down in a context of quiet activity as traders are awaiting new beans from the upcoming crop. They added that the cherries are in good condition and the weather is still favorable. The El Niño weather phenomenon doesn't pose much of a problem for the country, which has an extensive irrigation system.

Aug 28 - Indian turmeric prices continue to grow (IHSmarkit)

- 18% m/m increase in (unpolished) spot prices
- 21% y/y increase in exports
- Main importers: Bangladesh, Morocco and the UAE

The Indian spot fob unpolished turmeric price averaged 13,744 Indian rupee ($1,665/metric ton) at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, south central) on 25 August 2023, 18% more month-on-month and 95% more year-on-year.

The global crop has been disappointing and international demand is robust currently, triggering an international bullish trend with Indian traders launching speculative bets

India’s global sales reached 103,876 metric tons, 21% more/y, worth $115.7 million (-1% y/y), in H1 2023. The main importers were Bangladesh, Morocco and the UAE, taking 24%, 8% and 7%, respectively, of the volume.

The updated daily futures market prices on NCDEX were:
    Deliveries in August 2023 closed at INR14,800/quintal on 18 August, 16% more m/m
    INR16,714/quintal for deliveries in October 2023 on 25 August, 9% more m/m
    INR16,174/quintal for deliveries in December 2023 on 25 August, 5% more m/m.

Aug 25 - Garlic, turmeric and chilli prices do not find a ceiling in Bangladesh (IHSmarkit)

- 11-27% m/m increase in garlic prices
- Speculative bets on turmeric
- Ginger prices stabilized

Bangladeshi retail prices for garlic, chili and turmeric are keeping a strong bullish trend after ginger has stabilized, according to data from the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB) reveals.

The disappointing Indian supply of high-quality chili and the high European demand for Chinese garlic due to the disappointing Spanish crop, are fueling prices for both.

In addition, Indian traders are launching speculative bets on turmeric and the Bangladeshi are mirroring this trend.

Bangladesh is one of the largest consumers of spices in south Asia, importing from China, India and Burma as its domestic crops cannot cover its demand.

TCB listed the following average prices on 24 August 2023:
- Garlic, 200-280 Bangladeshi taka per kilo ($1.80-2.2/kg), 11-27% more month-on-month and up from BDT60-120/kg in the same period in the previous year.
- Turmeric, BDT200-340/kg, 13% more m/m and 30% y/y
- Dry chili, BDT400-520/kg, 4% m/m more and 30-48% more y/y
- Ginger, BDT200-400/kg, stagnant m/m and up from BDT80-140 in the same period in 2022

Aug 24 - Vietnam domestic prices edge down, thin supplies in Indonesia (Reuters)

- Domestic coffee prices continued to edge down in Vietnam this week amid muted activity as traders awaited new beans from upcoming crop, while in Indonesia, prices rose slightly on lower supplies, traders said on Thursday.

Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans in the range of 63,900-64,700 dong ($2.66-$2.70) per kg, down from 64,900-66,600 dong a week ago.
“Activities are muted now. We are waiting for new beans, which hopefully will come in late November or December,” said a trader based in the coffee belt.
“Everything goes well here as cherries are in good shape and the weather is favourable but as storm season is coming, we can not foretell anything.”

- November robusta coffee settled up $28 or 1%, at $2,402 as of Wednesday’s close while January contract settle up $19 at $2,324.

- Traders in Vietnam offered 5% black and broken-grade 2 robusta at a discount range of $3-$10 per tonne to the January contract.

- Meanwhile, Indonesia’s Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at a $500 premium to the November contract this week, up from $470 two weeks ago.
Another trader offered beans at a $500-$520 premium to the September-October contract, compared with a $500 premium two weeks ago.
“The prices were up slightly as beans are fewer,” the second trader said. ($1 = 23,985 dong)

Aug 24 - Brazil’s center south sugar production maintains solid growth in H1 August (IHSmarkit)

- Sugarcane crush rises 23% y/y to 47.9 million metric tons
- Cane harvest affected by rain in some regions
- Sharp increase in sugar output

Brazil’s center south sugarcane crush reached 47.87 million metric tons in the first half of August, up 23.38% year-on-year, according to data from the Brazilian sugar and ethanol industry group Unica. This brought total sugarcane processing since the start of the 2023-24 season in April to 360.05 million metric tons, an increase of 11.65% from the 322.48 million registered in the same period a year ago.

Despite the positive results, the industry group reported that occasional rains affected harvesting operations in some regions of the center south. This scenario serves as an alert to the risks of a potential El Nino at the end of the year.

In July, the sugarcane yield rose by 24.1% year-on-year to 98 metric tons per hectare due to the high participation of younger sugarcane fields in the harvest, according to the latest update by the Sugarcane Technology Center (CTC). A total of 261 mills were operating as of 16 August, against 259 mills a year ago.

In contrast, the amount of recoverable sugars per metric ton of cane (ATR) fell 2.19% year-on-year to an average of 149.23 kilo, while the cumulative amount fell 0.53% y/y to 135.09 kilo per metric ton of sugarcane.

Sugar’s share of the crush for H1 August was 50.77%, compared with 46.69% a year earlier, with mills continuing to favor sugar production over ethanol.

As a result, sugar production totaled 3.456 million metric tons in the first half of August, up 31.22% from 2.634 million in the same period last season. The cumulative volume reached 22.676 million metric tons, 21.88% more year-on-year.

On the ethanol side, some 2.346 billion liters were produced in H1 August, up from 2.015 billion in 2022-23. Some 12% of the ethanol produced in the period under review was made from corn.

Aug 21 - Indian guar gum prices to cross the INR13,000/quintal level (IHSmarkit)

- 11% m/m increase in spot prices
- 58% y/y fall in guar gum exports in H1 2023
- 13-15% m/m increase in futures prices for deliveries from September 2023-January 2024

Traders are launching speculative bets on guar seeds and gum as oil prices are growing and the Indian supply is at lows after farmers cut the planted acreage due to low prices in previous seasons. India’s guar gum spot price averaged 11,755 Indian rupees per quintal ($119.06/q) at the Jodhpur wholesale market on 4 August 2023, 11% more month-on-month and 22% more year-on-year.

Indian guar gum exports fell by 58% y/y in volume to 52,075 metric tons and by 60% in value to $104.2 million in H1 2023. The main importers were the US (14,289 metric tons, -64% y/y); Russia (10,249 metric tons, -30% y/y) and Germany (5,798 metric tons, -65% y/y).

The daily futures market prices on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) were:
    Deliveries in August 2023 closed at INR12,600/q on 18 August, 11% more m/m
    INR13,067/q for deliveries in September 2023 on 18 August, 13% more m/m

Aug 18 - Walnut Update: August 2023 (IHSMarkit)

- Californian industry is relying on domestic sales
- 15% y/y increase in Chile’s exports
- Robust increase in Chilean kernel prices

The US and Chile, the main global exporters, have increased their sales and cut their inventories, a necessary scenario to start raising prices. However, the Chinese and Ukrainian supply is tempering this bullish trend.

The 2023 productions in the main suppliers are projected to be stagnant or slightly growing (around 2.6 million metric tons), matching consumption and accelerating the digestion of carry-over stocks.

California

- Californian walnut shipments rose by 48% year-on-year to 44.3 million lbs thanks to domestic sales, bringing seasonal sales to (September-July) to 730.48 million lbs, 12% more y/y. Seasonal exports are slightly behind the previous season, with 441.3 million lbs (-1% y/y).
- The main seasonal in-shell importers were the UAE with 47.1 million lbs (+64% y/y) and Turkey with 85.9 million lbs (-2% y/y). Meanwhile, the main kernel importers were Germany (52.3 million lbs, -29.4% y/y) and Japan (36.9 million lbs, -11.3% y/y).
- The carry-out projection has been revised to 92,000 metric tons in June, a 32% reduction from last year and a substantial 60,000 tons decrease from last month’s projection of 152,000 tons. Sales in July might cut carry-over stocks to around 60,000 metric tons, a promising data to start the new season.

Chile
- Chile’s 2023 crop was recently harvested and will fall short of expectations. Their 2023 crop might be around 168,000-170,000 metric tons, down 10% versus last year’s crop of 187,000 metric tons and down 12.5% versus this year’s expectation of 192,000 metric tons. The Chilean industry has already committed around 82% of the 2023 production, exporters negotiating how to cover campaigns for the Diwali (India, November) and Christmas festivities.
- Chilean walnut prices slightly grow between June-July, with exporters accelerating processing of large sizes, according to the Chilean processor and exporter La Invernada in its latest market update. Prices are starting a slight recovery for in-shells and are growing strongly for kernels, due to shortage of the latter.
- Chilean exports rose by 2% y/y to 27,219 metric tons (in-shell basis) this July, bringing seasonal sales (March-July) to 90,677 metric tons (+15% y/y). The main seasonal in-shell importers were India with 30,519 metric tons (+114% y/y) and Turkey with 17,168 metric tons (+36% y/y). The main seasonal kernel purchaser was Spain with 2,586 metric tons (+24% y/y).

- Trading sources listed the following FOB prices for Chilean walnuts in July:
    In-shell, Chandler 30-34 mm: $2.35-2.60/kg, stagnant month-on-month and 4% less year-on-year.
    In-shell, Chandler 34-36 mm: $3.35-3.40/kg, ten cents up from June and 4% more y/y.
    In-shell, Chandler over 36 mm: $3.70-4.00/kg, ten cents up m/m and y/y,
    Kernel, ELLHP40: $6.00-6.25/kg, 2-3% more m/m and 13-30% more y/y.
    Kernel, ELLHP80: $7.80-8.20/kg, 11-30% more m/m and 20-26% more y/y.

China
- China’s crop is expected to be flat at 1.4 million metric tons in the 2023-24 season, with a total supply of 1.52 million metric tons, 5% more y/y. China is the largest world origin and is projected to conclude the season with carry-over stocks of 120,000 metric tons, two and a half times more than in the previous season. Export data reveals these huge inventories might be at the core of weak prices as the international market is literally flood with walnuts which are not fulfilling the EU requests.
- China exported 99,830 metric tons of walnuts in H1 2023, 62% more y/y, and might be exceed the record level reached in 2021: 154,000 metric tons.
- Chinese light Amber prices averaged £2,900/metric ton ($3,824/metric ton) EXW UK in July, 2% less month-on-month and 16% down from January, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Outlook
The US and Chile are set to cut carry-over stocks at lows. The price level in the EU, the EU, Japan and South Korea will be driven by the 2023 Californian crop. It California matches the crop estimate of around 680,000 metric tons, prices might stabilize in Q4. Meanwhile, China is covering the demand for walnuts in markets willing to purchase low quality nuts at low prices. Ukraine’s production is also projected to have low average quality as farmers are minimizing inputs due to high prices and the Russia-Ukraine war. As a result, all players will analyze the Californian harvest between September-October to resume negotiations with suppliers.

Aug 18 - Cardamom prices are recovering due to disappointing Indian supply (IHSmarkit)

- 15% y/y increase in Guatemalan cardamom exports in H1 2023
- Indian supply shortage is fueling wholesale prices
- Main global importers: Saudi Arabia and the UAE

- Guatemalan cardamom industry is recovering exports, which are clearly ahead from the previous season and offsetting the disappointing Indian supply. Guatemala’s exports rose by 15% year-on-year in volume to 36,754 metric tons but fell by 22% y/y in value to $219.9 million in H1 2023. The main importers were Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan, accounting for 22%, 21% and 14%, respectively, of the volume.

- India’s cardamom exports closed H1 2023 with 3,398 metric tons valued at $46.3 million, 53% y/y less in volume and 55% less in value. The main importers were the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, which accounted for 32%, 18% and 8% of the volume.

Prices
Guatemalan cardamom prices have been stabilized at $8,500/metric ton CIF for seeds from April-July. Mixed yellow quality min 360 g/l averaged $6,800/metric ton CIF in July, 18% more month-on-month and similar to April, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

The wholesale price for Indian large cardamom averaged 2,033 rupees/kg ($24.4/kg) on 14 August, 44% more m/m and up from INR954/kg on 14 August 2022.

Analysis
Indian traders are close to selling out the 2022-23 crop and the new seasonal supply might be disappointing due to unfavorable weather. Guatemala’s crop was around 50,000 metric tons, the global supply being dependent on it. The 2023-24 Guatemalan crop is uncertain due to low average rainfall. That means the campaign to cover the consumption during the Ramadan festival in the Middle East and Central Asia will rely on Guatemala and prices will start a long-term bullish trend if its crop is not bumper or mirroring the previous season.

Aug 18 - Sri Lankan desiccated coconut exporters selling with discounts (IHSmarkit)

- 24% y/y fall in exports in January-July 2023
- Gradual fall in fresh prices
- Exporters selling with discounts

Sri Lanka’s desiccated coconut exports fell by 24% year-on-year in volume to 18,447 metric tons and by 38% in value to $36.9 million in January-July 2023, forcing exporters to sell with discounts. The main importers were India, Iraq and the UAE, which accounted for 18%, 10% and 8%, respectively, of the volume.

The fresh price averaged 61.4 Sri Lankan rupees ($0.19) per coconut in coconut auctions held on 22 June, 9% less month-on-month and 6% less y/y.  Wholesale desiccated coconut prices ranged from SLR520-545/kg for fine, 11-13% more m/m, and from SLR535-545 for medium, 3% more m/m, on 3 August, according to the Sri Lankan Coconut Development Authority.

International prices averaged $1,510/metric ton FOB for medium in July, 9% less m/m and 6% less y/y, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Aug 17 - Vietnam domestic prices edge down on global cues (Reuters)

- Domestic coffee prices eased in Vietnam, tracking a drop in the London market amid thin trade and near empty supplies, while trade was muted in Indonesia due to a holiday, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans in the range of 64,900-66,600 dong ($2.72-$2.79) per kg, down from last week's 66,100-68,000 dong.

- November robusta coffee shed $165 in a week to $2,378 as of Wednesday’s close, reaching the lowest level since April 18, Refinitiv data showed.
“The prices were down following a drop in the global market and positive exports results from Brazil,” said a trader.

“Some traders have started to quote prices for spot contracts in November, December, however, the weather is still a factor that we have to keep an eye on as storm season is coming and there may record other unusual weather events this year.”

- Vietnam is expected to produce 29.6 million 60kg bags of coffee from the 2023/24 crop, Reuters poll’s median forecast showed, slightly below the previous season. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has put Vietnam’s 2022/23 crop at 29.75 million bags.

Aug 17 - Record Spanish almond crop heralds bearish prices in the EU (IHSmarkit)

- Spanish almond prices averaged $3,76/kg
- Price difference between Spanish and US almonds at lows
- Lack of promotion campaigns force to cut quotations

Spanish almond harvest in in full swing and growers will conclude it earlier than average due to high temperatures and trees with record yields, particularly in irrigated orchards, according to farming and trading sources.

Prices continue to fall, averaging €3.45/kg ($3.76/kg) for Spanish almonds against €3.30/kg for Californians in Spain in the first fortnight of August. The price difference between Spanish and US almonds has fallen to 15 cents, down from 20-25 cents in June. That means local almonds are really matching US prices, a scenario which was avoided by Spanish farmers for decades as they consider local varieties have a higher average quality than the US. Growers might start to ship raw almonds of the new Spanish crop to processing plants in the third week of August.

However, most plants are closed until September, when the market will be flooded with a record crop or around 120,000 metric tons. In addition, California is projected to have a crop similar to the previous season, with high carry-over stocks and concerns about a weak demand.

The Spanish trader Hispania Nuts has explained that prices for Spanish almonds might hit the rock bottom in Q4 as the Spanish and the Portuguese industrie has been taking advantage of Californian promotion campaigns and not developing their own strategies for years.

The Spanish and Portuguese almond industry associations have agreed to develop shared campaigns this summer. However, these actions achieve successful results in the long-term, forcing producers and processors to cut prices to gain market share in the short and mid-term.

Aug 17 - Fall in the Czech poppy seed production expected (IHSmarkit)

- 2023 production projected at 19,000 metric tons, 14% less y/y
- 19% y/y fall in Czech prices
- Main suppliers: Czechia and Turkey

Czechia’s blue poppyseed crop is expected to fall by 14% year-on-year to 19,000 metric tons in 2023 due to the combination of unfavorable weather and the cut in the planted area, according to Czech authorities. This volume is 30% lower than the 2021 output. Many Czech farmers have turned to cereals due to their high prices once the Russia-Ukraine war started. In addition, drought in H1 and heavy rains during the harvest have lowered the average yield. Czechia is the largest European supplier of blue poppyseeds, competing with Turkey to supply the eastern European markets, which use poppyseeds for bakery and confectionery.

Trading sources quoted the following average prices this August:

    €2.34/kg ($2.55/kg) for blue poppy seeds with less than 20 ppm morphine, stagnant month-on-month and 19% less year-on-year
    €2.40/kg for those with less than 10 ppm morphine, stagnant m/m and 19% less y/y

Aug 17 - Sharp decrease in global demand for raw sugar (IHSmarkit & Czarnikow)

- Raw sugar consumption down 20% y/y in H2 2023
- Sugar demand to increase slightly in 2023-24
- Raw sugar prices up 31% y/y

- Global raw sugar demand is estimated to have decreased 20% year-on-year in the first half of 2023, according to the broker and supply chain services provider Czarnikow. Meanwhile, consumption of refined sugar was stable during this period, which indicates that refiners were using their stocks and waiting for lower raw sugar prices before buying larger quantities again. The company said that this scenario has recently led to increases on refined sugar prices and will reinforce a price floor for the raw sugar market as refiners need to restock. Any drop in prices will encourage more purchases of raw sugar, which in turn will support the market.

- Czarnikow did not disclose the amount of sugar consumed in H2 2023, but in a recent statement the International Sugar Organization (ISO) released its forecast for world sugar demand in the 2023-24 season, which is seen at 176.96 million metric tons, up 0.3% from the forecast for the current 2022-23 season.
”Higher domestic prices and limited product access in global hotspots is lowering consumption expectations,” the ISO said.

Prices
- Raw sugar futures climbed to 24.04 cents per pound in July 2023, up 31% from the monthly average of 18.35 cents a year ago, on tight supplies and a second consecutive deficit projected for 2023-24. Similarly, white sugar futures rose 24% year-on-year to $676.94 per metric ton. The El Niño phenomenon increased the potential for severe weather at the end of this year, particularly in Asian producing countries such as India and Thailand.

Aug 17 - Robusta coffee prices expected to jump 28% this year - Reuters Poll
Robusta coffee prices are forecast to end the year below current levels but still register an annual increase of 28%, a Reuters poll of 10 traders and analysts showed on Wednesday. Prices were expected to be $2,300 per metric ton at the end of 2023, down 5% from Tuesday's close but 28% above levels at the end of last year, according to the poll's median forecast.

Aug 16 - Cold weather raises concerns about upcoming cocoa crop (IHSmarkit)

- Cumulative cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports down 4.3% y/y
- Above-average rainfall expected to boost the next crop
- Lack of sun may damage cocoa pods

Ivory Coast’s total cocoa production since the start of the 2022-23 season, from October last year to 13 August this year, fell by 4.3% y/y to 2.299 million metric tons. This is a decrease of 1% compared with crop projections released seven days ago, according to exporters.

The world’s top cocoa grower, Ivory Coast, also saw a sharp year-on-year decrease in weekly cocoa arrivals for the period between 6 and 13 August, which totaled 7,000 metric tons, 22% less y/y. Around 3,000 metric tons of beans were delivered to Abidjan port and 4,000 metric tons to San Pedro.

Local farmers said that above-average rainfall in most of the country’s main cocoa growing regions in recent weeks will help the development of the upcoming main cocoa crop (October-March). They added that the trees are full of flowers and cocoa pods at different stages of growth, meaning the harvest could last for a long time.

However, the cooler weather and lack of sunshine over the past week has caused some concern among cocoa farmers. If the cold weather continues for several weeks, many small pods and flowers may die and consequently reduce the 2023-24 harvest.

Aug 15 - Madagascan clove prices soften as season starts (IHSmarkit)

- Commercial season starts in September
- Traders are selling out stocks
- 15% fall in Madagascan prices between July-August

Madagascan clove farmers are starting to harvest in the northern origins, reporting a bumper crop, according to trading sources. The commercial season will start in September. As a result, traders are starting to sell out their 2022 production stocks as they have concerns about a sharp fall in prices.

Traders are selling currently at 39,000-42,000 Malagasy ariary per kg ($8.62-9.28/kg), down from MGA46,000-48,000/kg in July. In addition, some growers are selling small volumes to secure daily cash. Farmgate prices are below MGA31,000/kg at the time of writing (14 August).

It is still early to forecast a long-term price outlook. However, the current bearish price trend is clearly a game changer after traders bet on record prices due to request from Indonesian processors, who were importing African crops due to a disappointing Indonesian supply.

Aug 15 - Indian coriander prices continue to grow (IHSmarkit)
15 Aug 2023 - Food and Agricultural Commodities | Headline Analysis - China (mainland)- India- Malaysia- Russia- Ukraine- United Arab Emirates

- 5% m/m increase in spot prices
- 6-8% m/m growth in futures prices for deliveries from August-November 2023
- China accounted for 51% of whole coriander exports

- Indian coriander prices are gradually rising due to the combination of a robust Chinese demand, mirroring market trend in the cumin seed industry, and disappointing crop estimates for the eastern European crops. The European harvests are taking place just now and there are rumors about a 30% year-on-year fall, forcing European processors to raise prices for imported seeds due to EU MRL’s requests. The Indian coriander seed spot price averaged 7,661 rupees/quintal ($85.1/quintal) at the Kota (Rajasthan, North India) wholesale market on 14 August 2023, 5% more month-on-month and 35% less year-on-year, clearly behind the levels previous to the Russia-Ukraine war. India’s 2022-23 coriander seed production is expected to increase by 19% y/y to 950,000 metric tons.

- Indian exports reached 71,206 metric tons valued at $73.5 million in H1 2023, up from 22,381 metric tons valued at $36.2 million in H1 2022, with China being the driver of growth, according to customs data.

- The main importers of whole coriander (90% of the total exported volume) were China, Malaysia and the UAE, accounting for 51%, 10% and 8% , respectively.

The updated daily futures market price on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) was:

    Deliveries in July 2023 closed at INR7,434/quintal for deliveries in July 2023 on 20 July, 15% more m/m
    INR7,364/quintal for deliveries in August 2023 on 11 August, 6% more m/m
    INR7,514/quintal for deliveries in September 2023 on 11 August, 6% more m/m
    INR7,700/quintal for deliveries in October 2023 on 11 August, 7% more m/m
    INR7,886/quintal for deliveries in November 2023 on 11 August, 8% more m/m

Aug 12 - Cocoa Weekly Market Briefing (IHSmarkit)

    Ivorian cocoa port arrivals still down from last year
    Indonesian cocoa imports more than doubled
    Cocoa futures in London rise to a fresh 46-year high

Production
- Ivory Coast’s cocoa port arrivals in the week to 6 August remained below last season. Total cocoa production since the start of the 2022-23 season in October dropped by 4.2% year-on-year to 2.292 million metric tons, the same difference compared with seven days ago, exporters estimated this week. The world’s top cocoa grower also saw a sharp year-on-year decrease in weekly cocoa arrivals, which totaled 9,000 metric tons between 31 July and 6 August, 18% less y/y.
- Ivorian farmers reported that above-average rain in most of the country’s main cocoa growing regions last week helped the main crop (October-March) to strengthen. They added that the main crop is expected to start slowly in September and pick up gradually in October. However, there are concerns that heavy rains in September could trigger cocoa disease.

Demand
- Swiss chocolate maker Lindt & Spruengli posted a first-half operating profit above consensus and raised its full-year revenue forecast, indicating strong chocolate demand. The company sales increased by 10.1% year-on-year to 2.09 billion Swiss franc ($2.38 billion) in H2 2023. The outlook for the financial year 2023 has been revised upwards to reflect sales growth in the range of 7-9%, based on the group’s assumption that geopolitical tensions will not worsen, and that consumer sentiment will at least remain at the current level.

Trade
- Indonesia exported 2,387 metric tons of cocoa beans in May, 37% more than in the same month last year, according to customs data. This brought total exports in the first five months of 2023 to around 7,876 metric tons, 7% more year-on-year. Malaysia was the main importer with a 94% share. Meanwhile, the Asian country’s cocoa imports totaled 31,612 metric tons in May, more than doubling from 12,900 a year earlier.

Prices
- In London, the cocoa contract for December delivery touched a fresh 46-year high of £2,759 per metric ton ($3,510/t) on Monday before settling at £2,613/t on Thursday. Cocoa futures in New York ended at $3,358/t on Thursday, after peaking at $3,618/t earlier in the week, the highest level since 2011. Recent price rises have been attributed to expectations of a third successive deficit in 2023-24 due to the El Nino risks and to excessive rainfall in West Africa, although some farmers see the rains as positive.

Aug 11 - Vietnam domestic prices steady amid tepid trade ( Reuters )

- Coffee trading was slow this week in Vietnam, with domestic prices staying flat against the previous week and traders keeping a close eye on the weather and the output ahead of the new harvest starting in October. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans COFVN-DAK in the range of 66,100-68,000 dong ($2.78 to $2.86) per kg, marginally above the 66,100-67,900 dong in the previous week. Vietnam’s July coffee exports fell 22.6% sequentially to 108,872 tons, government data showed. In January-July, coffee shipments from Vietnam fell 3.4% year-on-year to 1.12 million tons.
“July’s coffee export volume recorded this year was the lowest in the past 7-8 years or so,” a trader based in the coffee belt said. “London prices slid slightly following the news.”

Downpours and floods in the Central Highlands last week did not pose any threat to coffee trees, traders said.
“The weather is still favourable for the trees and productivity may remain the same,” another trader based in the same region said.
However, with farmers switching to more profitable fruit-bearing trees, cultivation area has shrunk, the trader said, flagging that it could squeeze the coffee output this year.

November robusta coffee settled down $16 at $2,543, as of Wednesday’s close.

- In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee beans were offered at $470 premium to the November contract this week. The premium was $420 to the September contract a week ago. Another trader quoted $500 premium to the September-October contract, compared with the $560 premium last week.
“The decrease in price was due to a lower exchange rate of rupiah against dollar,” the trader said.

Aug 10 - EU updates import requests to US vanilla processors ( IHSmarkit )

- USDA recommends halting exports of US vanilla extracts temporarily
- No standardized procedure to obtain the requested certificate in the US
- EU concern about maximum residue levels of ethylene oxide

The EU has introduced a requirement for an official certificate providing guarantees from the US government about the compliance of US vanilla extract with the EU’s maximum residue levels of ethylene oxide. There is no current US government process for providing the standardized certificate which the EU is now requiring as a condition for entry of vanilla extract from the US. The EU will not accept third-party certificates from other testing facilities, including those in the EU.

Data from the EU Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) detected the presence of ethylene oxide in vanilla extracts from the US and the EU authorities considered as presenting a human health risk that requires special import conditions. This included certification provided by the US government regarding the compliance of this product with the Regulation (EC) No 396/2005 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 February 2005 on maximum residue levels of pesticides in or on food and feed of plant and animal origin.

Aug 10 - Turkish hazelnut prices increase after announcement of purchasing prices ( IHSmarkit )

- Long-term impact remains unclear
- Harvesting of new crop will start later this month
- Global supply is ‘more than adequate’

On Monday, Turkish president Recep Erdogan announced that the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) will purchase hazelnuts for the 2023 crop at 84 Turkish lira ($3.10) per kilogram for Giresun and TRY82.50/kg for Levant.

On Wednesday (9 August) Olivier Telvi, of UK trader Ronly Limited, which represents Turkish hazelnut processor Ronly Gida, observed: “The market immediately responded to the announcement by firming up, marking a change in market sentiment.”

Telvi noted that the long-term impact of the TMO announcement remains to be seen, as it is still unknown how many hazelnuts the TMO will purchase and what payment terms it will offer growers.
“Current crop estimates remain at around 700,000-800,000 metric tons,” he added. “Later this month, the industry will begin initial harvesting, which will give us a better idea of the yield patterns for the 2023 crop.”

In its latest market report Olam Nuts observed that crops across origins including Turkey, Italy and Oregon are looking good, and with Turkey’s approximate 200,000 metric tons of carry-in, supply is more than adequate.

Olam Nuts recalled that on June 22, the Turkish central bank’s monetary policy committee brought in a policy rate cut far lower than most economists were expecting, hiking the rates by 650 bp to 15% from 8.50%. Following the rates announcement, the US dollar to Turkish lira rate has traded beyond TRY26/$1.00 – a fresh low for the Turkish lira. “We expect the local market to move in tandem post the Bayram holidays,” Olam Nuts added.

The firm also observed that the US dollar prices for Turkish hazelnuts have declined from the highs earlier this year and have slid below the $5/kg level for the first time since November 2022. The availability of product, particularly in-shells, remains limited.

Aug 10 - Cashew shipments at strong pace due to European importers and promotion campaigns (IHSmarkit)

- Processors are developing promotion campaigns in Central Asia
- FOB prices ranging from $2.40-2.60/lb for WW320
- Northern hemisphere harvests close to concluding

The northern hemisphere cashew harvests are concluding and shipments to India and Vietnam are recovering as processors must replenish their raw stocks and falling prices have triggered rising exports to the EU, according to Olam Nuts in its latest market update.

Demand for processed cashews in the EU was very weak, and importers need to feed retailers, with high-quality cashews particularly. Prices for kernels are stabilized from $2.40-2.60/lb FOB for WW320.

Exporters are developing promotion campaigns, favoring raising sales in central Asia, a real game change when the EU recovers high purchase levels.
This outlook confirms S&P Global Commodity Insights previous coverage, with Ivory Coast’s exports of raw and processed cashew reaching records and India and Vietnam clearing out stocks.

Aug 10 - Sharp fall in Indonesian and Malaysian pepper exports (IHSmarkit)

- 52% y/y fall in Indonesia’s pepper exports
- Vietnam, a re-exporter of Indonesian pepper
- Japan accounted for 53% of Malaysian exports

Fall in Indonesian and Malaysian pepper steepened in January-May 2023. Indonesia and Malaysia are two minor pepper origins although with a higher average quality than Vietnam and Brazil, the main global suppliers. As a result, their exports reveal interesting trends in the US and Japan, which are willing to pay a high price for premium products

- Indonesia’s pepper exports fell by 52% year-on-year in volume to 10,545 metric tons and by 32% in value to $49.6 million in January-May 2023 due to the combination of a disappointing 2022 crop and weak demand.

The main importers were China, Vietnam and United States, accounting for 20%, 16% and 15%, respectively. This data shows the dual pattern of the Indonesian exporter industry, with high and mid-quality processed product shipped to China, Japan or the EU and whole product sent to Vietnamese processors.

- Malaysian pepper production is consumed in the local market mainly, being considered a premium product in the international markets. Malaysia’s pepper exports fell by 29% y/y in volume to 2,155 metric tons and by 33% y/y in value to $12.6 million. The main importers were Japan, Vietnam and Singapore, accounting for 53%, 11% and 10%, respectively.

Aug 10 - Ivorian cocoa port arrivals still down from last year (IHSmarkit)

- Cumulative cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports down 4.2% y/y
- Above-average rain favors the main crop development
- London cocoa futures hit 46-year high

Ivory Coast’s cocoa port arrivals in the week to 6 August remained below last season. Total cocoa production since the start of the 2022-23 season in October dropped by 4.2% year-on-year to 2.292 million metric tons, the same difference compared with seven days ago, exporters estimated this week.

The world’s top cocoa grower also saw a sharp year-on-year decrease in weekly cocoa arrivals, which totaled 9,000 metric tons between 31 July and 6 August, 18% less y/y. Around 5,000 metric tons of beans were delivered to Abidjan port and 4,000 metric tons to San Pedro.

Ivorian farmers reported that above-average rain in most of the country’s main cocoa growing regions last week helped the main crop (October-March) to strengthen. They added that the main crop is expected to start slowly in September and pick up gradually in October. However, there are concerns that heavy rains in September could trigger cocoa disease.

Aug 09 - Brazilian coffee exports slightly lower than last season (Safras & Mercado & IHSmarkit)

- Coffee shipments fall 4% y/y in July
- Harvest progress down 3 percentage points y/y
- Robusta coffee harvest is almost complete

The world's largest coffee exporter Brazil shipped around 2.346 million 60 kg bags of coffee in July 2023, 4% less than in the same month last year, according to customs data. This brought total exports since the start of the 2023-24 season in April 2023 to 9.328 million bags, down 12% from 10.619 million recorded in the same period last season.

By destinations, the US accounted for 17% of total exports in July, Germany with 11%, and Italy with 8%.

The consultancy firm Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2023-24 coffee harvest was 80% complete as of 2 August, up six percentage points from the previous week but down from 83% in the same period a year ago and from the five-year average of 85%.

It estimated that around 72% of arabica coffee fields have been harvested, which is down from 77% in the same period last year and from the five-year average of 80%. The company said that the arabica coffee harvest pattern remains positive in terms of productivity.

Meanwhile, the robusta harvest is drawing to a close with 93% of the harvest completed, marginally below last year’s 94% at this time and the five-year average of 98%.

Coffee harvest is progressing at a good pace due to the predominantly dry weather in most of the country's coffee producing regions, which favors the harvest process. The exceptions are Espírito Santo and eastern Minas Gerais, where rainfall disrupted the harvesting and drying process.

In terms of volume, around 53.07 million bags have already been harvested out of a total of 66.65 million bags estimated for 2023-24, according to Safras & Mercado.

Aug 08 - TMO announces hazelnut buying prices (IHSmarkit)

- More will be paid for high-yield hazelnuts
- Distinct absence of buyers
- Yield losses look likely due to earlier-than-declared start to harvesting

- The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has announced its purchasing prices of in-shell hazelnuts on the basis of 50% yield for the 2023-24 crop as follows:-

    Levant quality at 82.5 Turkish lira ($3.05) per kg
    Giresun quality at TRY84/kg
    Sivri Quality at TRY80/kg

- When TMO purchased high-yield hazelnuts it will pay an additional TRY1.65 yield difference to the farmers. In addition to this, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry will pay a support payment (area-based, diesel and fertilizer) of TRY2.70/kg to the producers. Producers will be able to make an appointment from TMO workplaces and on the TMO website as of 21 August, due to the appointment system. Although the product development is late this season, it seems that the farmers started harvesting earlier than declared, which will cause a loss of yield.

- On 2 August, Olivier Telvi of UK trader Ronly Limited, which represents Turkish hazelnutt processor Ronly Gida observed a lack of buyers, as they have started to shut down their productions and wait for the new crop. “On the other hand, sellers are still willing to sell their remaining material. TMO also could not sell all of its old crop stocks,” he added. Telvi also noted that for the time being the new crop estimate varies between 710,000-770,000 metric tons.

Aug 08 - Sharp fall in Indonesian vanilla exports (IHSmarkit)

- 82% y/y fall in Indonesian exports
- 60% y/y fall in imports
- Papua New Guinea accounted for 96% of Indonesian imports

- Indonesian vanilla exports (fresh, dried, whole and crushed product included) reached 60 metric tons in January-May 2023, 78% less year-on-year, and imports 41 metric tons, 82% less y/y.
- Papua New Guinea accounted for 95% of the total imported volume as Indonesia is, traditionally, a re-exporter of the former.
- The main importers of Indonesian vanilla were the US and the Netherlands, accounting for 60% and 14%, respectively.
- This data confirms S&P Global Commodity Insights previous report , in which we explained that demand is at lows as importers and processors are waiting for a sharp fall in prices as bumper crops have favored a record supply which might flood the global market.

Aug 08 - Brazil robusta exports grow as price gap to Vietnam remains high
Brazil robusta coffee export deals are growing quickly as coffee traders take advantage of the South American's country's significant discount to Vietnam and Indonesia, according to an analyst. In a weekly note for Brazilian risk advisory firm Archer Consulting, coffee analyst Marcelo Fraga Moreira said that international traders that sold robusta coffee to European processors in contracts that include "option for origin" are shifting from sourcing that coffee in Asia toward getting it in Brazil.

Aug 08 - Global sugar production outlook weakens; larger supply deficit seen
Global sugar production will be smaller than the expected consumption for a second straight season in 2023/24 (October-September) as near-record Brazilian output will not be enough to offset reductions in other regions, analysts said on Monday. Sugar consulting firm CovrigAnalytics said in a report that it expects a global supply deficit of 2.2 million metric tons (MMT) in 2023/24, while broker and supply chain services provider Czarnikow sees a deficit of 900,000 tons.  

Aug 07 - Sharp increase in Indian turmeric prices (IHSmarkit)
- The Indian spot unpolished turmeric price averaged INR12,663 ($1,538/metric ton) at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, south central) on 31 July 2023, 58% more month-on-month and 70% more year-on-year.
- The global crop has been disappointing and international demand is robust currently, triggering a global bullish trend with Indian traders launching speculative bets
- India’s global sales reached 85,519 metric tons, 27% more/y, worth $73.3 million (+1% y/y), in January-May 2023. The main importers were Bangladesh, Morocco and the UAE, taking 26%, 10% and 7%, respectively, of the volume.
- The updated daily futures market prices on NCDEX were:

    INR14,772/quintal for deliveries in August 2023 on 28 July, 50% more m/m
    INR15,714/quintal for deliveries in October 2023 on 28 July, 52% more m/m
    INR16,006/quintal for deliveries in December 2023 on 28 July, 49% more m/m.

Aug 07 - Price movement upwards for white sugar price (IHSmarkit)
- Raw sugar prices ended lower last week with the most-active raw sugar contract for October delivery settling at 24.02 cents per pound on Thursday (3 August), down 18 points from the previous session and 41 points from a week ago.
- In contrast, the white sugar prices in London posted gains last week with the most-active October contract settling at $699.00 per metric ton on Thursday, up $1.80 from the previous day and $20.50 w/w.
- Brazil, the world’s top sugar exporter, shipped 2.98 million metric tons of the sweetener in July, up 3.5% from 2.876 million recorded in the same month last year, the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) reported last week. Despite the increase in Brazilian sugar exports, limited global supplies continued to support futures.

Aug 04 - Ivory Coast’s cashew industry closed H1 with record processed exports (IHSmarkit)

- 29% y/y growth in in-shell exports
- Vietnam accounted for 79% of raw volume
- 43% y/y increase in kernel exports

Ivorian cashew in-shell and kernel exports closed H1 2023 with a strong growth, confirming that the market is accelerating processing. Raw cashew nut (RCN) exports rose by 29% year-on-year to 732,100 metric tons. Vietnam and India were the main importers, accounting for 79% and 20%, respectively. Meanwhile, processed cashew international sales rose by 43% y/y in volume to 19,880 metric tons, worth $91.6 million, 38% more y/y. The main importers were the US, Turkey and the Netherlands, taking 16%, 12% and 12%, respectively.

This data reveals that the international processing market is in full swing, with Indian and Vietnamese manufacturers replenishing their raw inventories. Local processors are resuming sales after slowed sales in Q1.

In addition, it confirms the rumors of an Ivorian crop higher than the initial estimate, flooding markets and pressing prices down. Ivory Coast’s 2023 cashew crop estimate has been increased to 1.22 million metric tons, 22% more than in the previous season and 19% more than in the previous estimate, according to the Ivorian Cotton and Cashew Council (CCA). CCA estimates that farmers have already sold 1.05 million metric tons of RCNs, keeping still around 100,000 tons.

Analysis
Ivory Coast’s processed exports are driving international prices. European and US importers have found a supplier to diversify their purchases and not remain dependent on Vietnam, with India focusing on the local market. That means bearish prices in H2.

Aug 03 - Vietnam domestic prices edge higher on global cues, weak export estimates (Reuters)

- Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices edged up from a week earlier, following a rise in global prices as weak export estimates for the top robusta producer and tight supplies from Brazil extended beans shortage concerns, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the central highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing area, sold beans at 66,100 dong to 67,900 dong ($2.78 to $2.86) per kg, widening from last week's 66,100 dong to 67,100 dong range.

- November robusta coffee settled up $38 at $2,532, as of Wednesday’s close.
“The prices are rising but not much. Bean export in the first seven months, according to the government, was slower than last year although it was anticipated,” a trader based in the coffee belt said.
“The rumour that Brazilian farmers refused to release beans in hope for higher prices amid supplies crunch also contributed to the increase in the terminal. “

- Coffee exports from Vietnam are estimated to have decreased 6% in the first seven months of 2023 from a year earlier to 1.087 tonnes, equivalent to 18.2 million 60 kg (130 pound) bags, official data showed.

- While Indonesia’s shipments of Sumatra robusta coffee beans stood at 14,858.14 tonnes in June, a 14% drop on a yearly basis, trade office data showed. Sumatra coffee bean exports rose 9.10% on a monthly basis from 13.618,1 tonnes shipped in May. Sumatran beans were offered at $420 premium to the September contract this week, down from $500 a week ago. Trader said prices were getting more favourable. On the contrary, another trader said the price went up 30 points, at $560 premium this week to the September contract compared to $530 last week to the August-September contract due to higher price in London terminal. ($1 = 23,757.0000 dong)

Aug 03 - Zanzibar starts the clove commercial season (IHSmarkit)

- Opening date: 3 August
- 40% y/y fall in production
- 4-7% y/y increase in prices for Grade 1, 2 and 3

The Zanzibar State Trading Corporation (ZSTC) has started the clove commercial season, opening its purchasing centers on 3 August, trading sources reported to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

International strong prices, due to a supply shortage, has made the ZSTC raise purchasing prices in most categories:
    Grade 1: 15,000 Tanzanian shilling per kg ($6.08/kg), 7% more year-on-year.
    Grade 2: TZS13,000/kg, 4% more y/y
    Grade 3: TZS12,500/kg, 4% more y/y
    Grade 4: TZS7,000/kg, stagnant y/y

The 2022-23 Zanzibar clove crop fell by 40% y/y to 4,730 metric tons due to the combination of unfavorable weather and pests.
Zanzibar’s cloves had a negative reputation on quality in international markets although its sales have recovered strongly due to a disappointing supply in Indonesia, as Madagascar and Comoros cannot cover this gap.

Aug 03 - Coriander seed buyers hesitant until more is known on new crops from eastern Europe (IHSmarkit)

- Clarity also sought on new crop prices from eastern Europe
- EU-compliant material commanding a hefty premium over non-EU compliant
- Russia largely absent from EU and UK markets

Eastern European coriander seed prices are varying greatly according to whether material is conforming to stringent EU regulations or not.
EU compliant coriander seed is obviously the most costly option but there is a lower availability of this material than that which is non-compliant.
Harvesting of new crops is ongoing now in Russia, Bulgaria and Romania and little is known of the likely outcome of these crops.

In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 (it started on 24 February) and this continued conflict the UK has imposed a hefty tax on any agricultural produce coming from Russia. Hence, not surprisingly there is very little coriander seed being exported from Russia to the UK currently.

Andrew Barker of UK company Justingredients told S&P Global Commodity Insights: “As far as I know, most Europeans are not buying Russian from a purely political point of view because they don’t want to be involved with Russian coriander. Also, the banks in Europe generally do not favor you paying documents for anything that is Russian so there is a lot of negatives about buying Russian at the moment. However, there is Russian coriander seed coming into the EU and from what I know, the UK.”

There is limited old crop Russian produce left available and prices being paid for whole coriander seed are around $700 per metric ton C&F. The new crop in Russia is said to be quite small. It is too soon to have any idea of what new crop prices will be but Barker said he expects a range of $700-750/t C&F on the whole coriander seed.

Delays on Bulgarian crop
The Bulgarian crop is unknown at this stage although growing and harvesting conditions were said to be good despite reports of a lack of rain. “It’s slightly delayed and it is a little too early to tell whether they have a good crop or not,” Barker warned. He noted that the delay could signal the possibility of a smaller crop this year.

In Romania, plantings have reduced in recent years and it is also too soon to gauge what type of crop this origin will have.
“There is a huge disparity in price between EU complying material and non-EU complying material from eastern Europe,” Barker added.
“Prices paid for EU complying material can range between $1,500 and $1,650 (per metric ton) C&F. However, material which does not comply – for instance some of the Russian and some of the Bulgarian and Romanian can be traded at around $850 (per metric ton C&F). The reason the EU complying material is so expensive is it is very difficult to grow and not many faming groups are doing much about it.”

Barker observed that this is similar to the situation with cumin seed in India in which EU compliant material costs $9,800/t C&F while that which is non-EU compliant costs $7,000/t.

Aug 02 - Sharp decrease in Vietnam coffee exports (IHSmarkit)

- Vietnamese coffee shipments down 22% y/y
- Increase in coffee exports revenue
- Switzerland leads destinations for Vietnam coffee in 2023

Vietnam’s coffee exports are estimated to have decreased 22% year-on-year to 80,000 metric tons (1.33 million 60 kg bags) in July, according to the General Statistics Office. This brought total exports in the first seven months of 2023 to 1.087 million metric tons (18.2 million 60 kg bags). However, coffee export revenue for the world’s largest producer of the robusta coffee bean increased year-on-year as coffee prices, particularly for robusta, have risen. The price increase reflected lower supplies from the top producers Vietnam and Indonesia.

The country’s revenue reached $1.68 billion between January and May 2023, up 11% from the same period last year and 73% from two years ago, according to customs data. The main importers during this period were Switzerland (24%), Singapore (16%), and the Netherlands (13%).

Vietnam is expected to produce 29.75 million bags of green beans in the 2022-23 season (October-September), down 6% from the 31.58 million bags produced in 2021-22 due to lower yields, high production costs, and a drop in cultivation area, according to the USDA.

For the 2023-24 season, Asian coffee producing countries such as Vietnam will be susceptible to drought depending on the intensity of the El Niño weather phenomenon.

Aug 02 - Ivory Coast cocoa port arrivals remain low year-on-year (IHSmarkit)

- Weekly cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports down 33% y/y
- Black pod diseases reported in some regions
- Improved weather expected to favor the next main crop

Ivory Coast’s cocoa port arrivals continued to be lower in the week to 30 July compared with last season. The world’s top cocoa grower saw cumulative production drop by 4.2% year-on-year from 2.383 million metric tons to 2.283 million, compared with the difference of 4% seven days prior, exporters estimated this week.

The country also saw a sharp year-on-year decrease in weekly cocoa arrivals, which totaled 10,000 metric tons between 24 and 30 July, 33% less y/y. Around 4,000 metric tons of beans were delivered to Abidjan port and 6,000 metric tons to San Pedro.

Local farmers reported incidents with black pod diseases that were triggered by heavy rainfall in late June. However, black pod diseases typically affect only a specific region and do not significantly impact overall production.

In recent weeks, Ivory Coast’s cocoa plantations have been experiencing a mix of rain and sunshine, which has helped the development of the October-to-March main crop, Ivorian farmers said.

Aug 01 - Sudanese peanut exporters ship peanuts with strong discounts due to war ( IHSmarkit )

- Sudanese traders aim to clear out inventories in Port Sudan
- Concerns about high moisture levels in Nigerian peanuts
- Mozambique’s industry is selling peanuts at $1,400-1,450/metric ton FOB to Asian importers

The Sudanese civil war is worsening and peanut exporters still are shipping the 2022-23 crop, although with prices ranging from $1,300-1,350/metric ton FOB, $100 less than other African origins according to the Indian peanut grower and processors PnutKing in its latest market update. They aim to clear out their stocks before the conflict affects their warehouses in Port Sudan. Meanwhile, the combination of a low yield and high moisture levels has made processors focus on the local market and many international purchasers have halted negotiations after analyzing samples.

Finally, Mozambican farmers have sold out their crops. Traders are negotiating just now shipments, with prices ranging from $1400-1,450/metric ton FOB, $100 up from the previous season due to low availability of groundnuts fulfilling requests from Asian importers.

Aug 01 - Brazil’s center south sugar production projected to be the second largest in history ( StoneX IHSmarkit )

- Sugar production expected to rise 13.9% y/y in 2023-24
- Weather conditions boosts sugarcane harvest
- Sugarcane crushing projected to increase by 11% from 2022-23

Sugar production in Brazil’s center south region is expected to reach 38.3 metric tons in the 2023-24 season (April-March), according to local consultancy StoneX. If realized, the volume would represent an increase of 13.9% compared with 2022-23 and the second-largest sugar production in history, behind only the 2020-21 season.

The current season has been showing good harvest conditions due to an improvement in weather since August 2022, when the center south began to receive a high volume of rainfall, favoring the development of sugarcane fields.

The consultancy expects the region to crush 607.7 million metric tons of sugarcane in 2023-24, which would mark the second largest volume ever crushed, behind only the 2015-16 season, and would be 11% less than in the previous season.

In terms of global sugar balance, StoneX forecasts a surplus of 300,000 metric tons of sugar in the 2023-24 season. This volume is less than the estimated surplus for 2022-23 and represents a cut of around 1 million metric tons from its forecast released in May. In contrast, global sugar consumption is expected to rise by around 0.8% to 191.9 million metric tons.

Aug 01 - Sesame Seed Update: July/Aug 2023 (IHSmarkit)

- Concerns about Niger’s supply due to political instability
- India is not losing market share despite high price levels
- Chinese imports still clearly behind the previous season

The international sesame seed industry has assumed that the Sudanese civil war will not conclude in the short-term, making it hard to ship its sesame seed crop in full swing. That key point explains why the Indian industry is not easing prices.

- Indian sesame seed prices are around $300-400 per metric ton higher than rivals in Africa and Asia (Myanmar and Pakistan, mainly) although processors trust on a strong domestic demand and high-quality requests from South Korea, Japan, the US and the EU, trading sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights. India and Pakistan are projecting bumper crops despite concerns that monsoon rains might have damaged plantations. Meanwhile, Mozambique and Tanzania have committed 65% of their combined crops.
- Ethiopia, another key origin in East Africa has not recovered its production level prior to its latest conflict in the region of Tigray (November 2020). If Sudan took advantage of the Ethiopian logistics bottlenecks in 2020-21, the latter is mirroring that currently, exporting through Djibouti. As a result, the Indian industry is enjoying the best of both worlds, with rising prices and robust demand.
- Chinese importers have been delaying purchases although most traders expect a sudden increase in its imports in H2. They have been successful in paying not more than $1,800/metric ton FOB for East African sesame seeds but they are far from replenishing their stocks.
India
- India’s Kharif sesame production is expected to reach 3.63 million metric tons, 54% less year-on-year, due to unfavorable weather, bringing the seasonal production to 7.5 million metric tons, 5% less y/y and 25% lower than the initial goal of the government. “This low record has made processors to focus on the local market, taking advantage of bullish quotations, mirroring similar trends for cashews some years ago,” an Indian source explained. However, this data might change as farmers have increased their sown area to 2.06 million hectares, 34% more y/y, as they are conscious about the global shortage.

- Spot prices averaged INR 19,200/quintal ($2,332/metric ton) in the Unjha (Gujarat, Northwest) wholesale market on 25 July, 14% more month-on-month and 51% more y/y. Futures prices mirrored this bullish trend on 27 July, reaching INR19,285/quintal for deliveries in August and INR19,520/quintal for those in October.

Indian exports fell by 15% y/y to 74,350 metric tons but grew by 3% y/y to $74.3 million in January-May 2023. The main importers were the US (6,736 metric tons, +11% y/y); 5,506 metric tons (+17% y/y); and Russia (4,960 metric tons, +33% y/y). Imports reached 58,776 metric tons, five times more y/y in January-May 2023. The main suppliers were Sudan and Brazil, accounting for 39% and 38%, respectively.

China
- China is the main global importer of sesame seeds, prioritizing African origins to secure supply. Chinese purchases are a good barometer to measure how the international market is working. China’s imports fell by 35% y/y to 437,555 metric tons. In H1 2023. Niger, Sudan and Togo were the main suppliers, accounting for 35%, 22% and 19%, respectively.
- Niger (West Africa) has supplied around 153,380 metric tons to China in the first semester, emerging as a key supplier and cutting market share to other African origins such as Sudan or Ethiopia. However, the current political instability in Niger after a military group has deposed the president, heralds logistics bottlenecks similar to the ones suffered by Ethiopia.
- Niger has been selling its crop to China at prices slightly lower than the range from $1,750-1,850/metric ton negotiated by East African origins (Tanzania, Mozambique and Ethiopia). Once the political situation clarifies, Chinese importers will focus on securing Niger’s shipments.

Brazil
- Brazil started to expand the sesame planted area under Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency (2019-23), after signing a trade deal with India. However, Brazilian exports to this Asian market have been at lows until 2022. June data confirms the sharp increase in international sales. Brazil’s exports reached 60,490 metric tons in H1 2023, up from 13,000 metric tons in the first half of 2022. The main importers were Guatemala, India and Turkey, accounting for 33%, 26% and 21%, respectively.

Ethiopia
- Ethiopia’s exports rose by 33% y/y to 79,812 metric tons. The main importers were Israel, the UAE and Turkey, accounting for 34%, 17% and 12%, respectively.
-Whitish Wollega grade 3-5 averaged $1,697/metric ton FOB Djibouti in June 2023, $35 more than in May and 14% more y/y.

Outlook
- Niger’s coup could have an unexpected effect on global sesame seed supply, fueling uncertainty and a bullish price trend after the Sudanese civil war started. Chinese importers have been delaying purchases to secure a price level of around $1,800/metric ton and this scenario is not plausible in the long-term. Other origins are conscious of it, triggering an expansion in the planted area.

Sesame prices might reach records in H2 if Sudanese and Niger crisis are not fixed, securing supply.

Aug 01 - Sharp increase in Indian turmeric prices (IHSmarkit)

- 58% m/m increase in (unpolished) spot prices
- 27% y/y increase in exports
- 49-52% y/y growth in futures prices for deliveries from August-December

The Indian spot unpolished turmeric price averaged INR12,663 ($1,538/metric ton) at the Nizamabad market (Telangana state, south central) on 31 July 2023, 58% more month-on-month and 70% more year-on-year.

The Indian industry started the season with huge carry-over stocks of 170,000 metric tons and the slight recovery in prices might unveil that they are cleared out and traders are starting to ship the new crop. The global crop has been disappointing and international demand is robust currently, triggering a global bullish trend with Indian traders launching speculative bets

India’s global sales reached 85,519 metric tons, 27% more/y, worth $73.3 million (+1% y/y), in January-May 2023. The main importers were Bangladesh, Morocco and the UAE, taking 26%, 10% and 7%, respectively, of the volume.

The updated daily futures market prices on NCDEX were:
- INR14,772/quintal for deliveries in August 2023 on 28 July, 50% more m/m
- INR15,714/quintal for deliveries in October 2023 on 28 July, 52% more m/m
- INR16,006/quintal for deliveries in December 2023 on 28 July, 49% more m/m

May 23 ended the last trading day of last week slightly firmer at GBP +8 at GBP 2009, a full GBP 2 lower than last Monday's open at GBP 2011. The week saw a volatile weekly pattern, with a high of GBP 2038 and a low of GBP 1989, where price fixing from the origin and occasional price hedging from the industry balanced each other out. In the end, not much happened in cocoa. The Commitment of Traders figures, as per the reporting deadline of 7 February, will not be published until further notice. In the grading room, one BDU Nigeria (fresh arrival) and one BDU Guinea (regrade) went under the knife on Friday. Both BDUs passed the test.